寶潔 (PG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter end conference call. Today's event is being recorded for replay.

早安，歡迎參加寶潔公司季度末電話會議。本次會議將進行錄音，以便回放。

This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections. As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

本次討論將包含若干前瞻性陳述。如果您查閱寶潔公司最新的10-K、10-Q和8-K報告，您會看到其中討論了可能導致公司實際業績與這些預測有重大差異的因素。根據G條例的要求，寶潔公司需要告知您，在討論過程中，公司將多次提及非GAAP財務指標和其他財務指標。寶潔公司認為這些指標能夠為投資者提供有關潛在業務趨勢的有用信息，並已在其投資者關係網站www.pginvestor.com上發布了非GAAP財務指標的完整調節表。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

現在我將把電話交給寶潔公司的財務長安德烈‧舒爾滕。

Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Jon Moeller, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

各位早安。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有：董事長、總裁兼執行長喬恩·穆勒；以及高級副總裁兼投資者關係主管約翰·謝瓦利埃。

I'll start with an overview of results for fiscal year '22 and the fourth quarter, Jon will add perspective on our strategic focus areas, we'll close with guidance for fiscal '23 and then take your questions.

我會先概述 2022 財年和第四季的業績，Jon 將補充介紹我們的策略重點領域，最後我們將給出 2023 財年的展望，然後回答大家的問題。

Fiscal 2022 was another very strong year. Execution of our integrated strategies continues to yield strong sales, earnings and cash results in an incredibly difficult operating environment. We delivered broad-based strong top line growth across categories and regions, earnings growth in the face of significant cost headwinds, continued strong return of cash to P&G shareowners.

2022財年依然是業績表現強勁的一年。在極度艱難的經營環境下，我們持續執行整合策略，取得了強勁的銷售、獲利和現金流業績。我們在各個品類和地區都實現了全面強勁的營收成長，在成本大幅上升的情況下依然保持了盈利增長，並持續為寶潔股東帶來豐厚的現金回報。

Organic sales for the fiscal grew 7%, up 13% on a 2-year stack, up 19% on a 3-year stack. Growth was broad-based across business units with all 10 of our product categories growing organic sales. Personal Health Care grew 20%; Fabric Care and Feminine Care grew double digits; Baby Care, up high single digits; Oral Care and Grooming, up mid-single digits; Hair Care, Home Care, Skin and Personal Care and Family Care each grew low singles. Focus Markets were up 5% for the year; Enterprise Markets, 10%.

本財年有機銷售額成長7%，兩年累計成長13%，三年累計成長19%。各業務部門均實現全面成長，所有10個產品類別的有機銷售額均實現成長。個人健康護理成長20%；織物護理和女性護理達到兩位數增長；嬰兒護理實現接近兩位數增長；口腔護理和個人護理實現中等個位數增長；頭髮護理、家居護理、皮膚護理和個人護理以及家庭護理均實現低個位數增長。重點市場全年成長5%；企業市場成長10%。

We delivered strong results in our largest and most profitable market, the United States, with organic sales growing 8%, up 16% on a 2-year stack. E-commerce sales increased 11%, now representing 14% of company total. Our integrated strategies continue to drive strong market growth, and in turn, share growth for P&G. All channel market value in the U.S. categories in which we compete grew approximately 6% in fiscal '22. P&G value share continued to grow, up 90 basis points for the year.

我們在美國這個最大、獲利能力最強的市場取得了強勁的業績，有機銷售額成長8%，兩年累計成長16%。電子商務銷售額成長11%，目前占公司總銷售額的14%。我們的整合策略持續推動市場強勁成長，進而提升了寶潔的市場佔有率。 2022財年，我們在美國所有競爭類別的通路市場價值成長約6%。寶潔的市佔率持續成長，全年提升90個基點。

Global aggregate market share increased 50 basis points. 36 of our top 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the year. Importantly, this share growth is broad-based. 9 of 10 product categories grew share globally over the past year. Core earnings per share grew 3% for the year despite a 22 percentage point headwind to earnings from commodities, freight and foreign exchange. Our initial outlook predicted $1.8 billion after tax of headwinds. We ended up at $3.2 billion. So despite an incremental $1.4 billion of earnings pressure versus ingoing plan, we delivered core EPS growth within our initial guidance range for the year.

全球市佔率整體成長了50個基點。在我們排名前50名的品類組合中，有36個品類組合的市佔率全年維持或有所成長。值得注意的是，這一市場份額增長具有廣泛性。過去一年，10個產品類別中有9個在全球範圍內實現了市場份額成長。儘管大宗商品、貨運和外匯波動對獲利造成了22個百分點的不利影響，但核心每股盈餘全年仍成長了3%。我們最初的預測是，扣除不利因素後，稅後每股盈餘為18億美元。最終，我們實現了32億美元。因此，儘管與計劃相比，獲利壓力增加了14億美元，但我們仍實現了核心每股收益成長，且符合我們最初的預期範圍。

On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS was up 5%. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 93%. We increased our dividend by 5% and returned nearly $19 billion of value to shareowners, $8.8 billion in dividends and $10 billion in share repurchase.

以固定匯率計算，核心每股收益成長5%。調整後自由現金流效率為93%。我們將股息提高了5%，並向股東返還了近190億美元的價值，其中88億美元為股息，100億美元為股票回購。

Moving to the April-June quarter. Organic sales grew 7%. Pricing contributed 8 points to organic sales growth as additional price increases reached the market. Mix was flat and volume declined 1 point, which is due to reduced operations in Russia. Volume for the balance of the business excluding Russia was up 1 point. These strong company results are grounded in broad-based category and geographic strength.

進入4月至6月季度。有機銷售額成長7%。由於價格上漲，有機銷售額成長貢獻了8個百分點。產品組合維持不變，銷售量下降1個百分點，主要是由於俄羅斯業務縮減所致。除俄羅斯外，其他地區的銷售量成長1個百分點。公司業績強勁，得益於其在各個品類和地域的廣泛優勢。

9 of the 10 product categories grew organic sales in the quarter. Personal Health Care grew mid-teens; Fem Care was up low teens; Fabric Care grew double digits; Oral Care, up high singles; Baby Care and Family Care, up mid-single digits; Hair Care, Home Care and Grooming, each grew low singles. 5 of 7 regions grew organic sales with Focus Markets up 3% and Enterprise Markets up 18% for the quarter.

本季度，十大產品類別中有九個實現了有機銷售額成長。個人健康照護類別成長了兩位數以上；女性照護類別成長了兩位數以下；織品照護類別成長了兩位數；口腔照護類別成長了接近兩位數；嬰兒照護和居家照護類別成長了個位數中段；頭髮照護、居家照護和個人照護類別均成長了幾個位數以下。七個區域中有五個區域的有機銷售額實現了成長，其中重點市場成長了3%，企業市場成長了18%。

Organic sales in the U.S. grew 6%, up 24% on a 3-year stack. European Focus Markets were up 3%. Excluding Russia, Europe Focus Markets were up 7%. Greater China organic sales were down 11%, mainly due to COVID-driven lockdowns in major regions of the market. Since lockdowns have eased, we've seen sequential market recovery but somewhat slower than expected when we gave guidance last quarter.

美國有機銷售額成長6%，三年累計成長24%。歐洲重點市場成長3%。若剔除俄羅斯，歐洲重點市場成長7%。大中華區有機銷售額下降11%，主要原因是受新冠疫情影響，該市場主要地區實施了封鎖措施。隨著封鎖措施的逐步解除，市場已呈現季後復甦的態勢，但成長速度略低於上季業績預期。

In Enterprise Markets, each of the 3 regions grew organic sales 14% or more. Global aggregate market share increased 50 basis points. 29 of our top 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the quarter. On the bottom line, core earnings per share were $1.21, up 7% versus prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS increased 12%.

在企業市場方面，三大區域的有機銷售額均成長了14%或以上。全球市佔率整體成長了50個基點。在我們排名前50位的品類國家組合中，有29個組合在本季維持或成長了市場佔有率。淨利方面，核心每股收益為1.21美元，較去年同期成長7%。以固定匯率計算，核心每股收益成長了12%。

Core operating margin decreased 30 basis points as gross margin pressure were largely offset by sales leverage and productivity improvements in SG&A. Currency-neutral operating margin increased 20 basis points. Free cash flow productivity was 99%. We returned $3.5 billion of cash to shareowners this quarter, nearly $2.3 billion in dividends and nearly [$1.3 billion] in share repurchase.

核心營業利益率下降30個基點，毛利率壓力基本上被銷售槓桿效應及銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）的效率提升所抵銷。以固定匯率計算，營業利益率上升20個基點。自由現金流效率為99%。本季我們向股東返還了35億美元現金，其中近23億美元用於派發股息，近13億美元用於股票回購。

In summary, we met or exceeded each of our going-in target ranges for the year: organic sales growth, core EPS growth, free cash flow productivity and cash return to shareowners. Strong performance in very difficult operating conditions.

總而言之，我們達到或超過了年初設定的所有目標範圍：有機銷售成長、核心每股收益成長、自由現金流效率以及股東現金回報。在極度艱難的經營環境下，我們取得了強勁的業績。

Now I'll pass it over to Jon.

現在我把麥克風交給喬恩。

Thanks, Andre. P&G employees have delivered great results over the past 4 years in a very challenging macro environment against very capable competition. In those 4 years, P&G people have added more than $13 billion in annual sales and roughly $5 billion in after-tax profit, executing our integrated strategies with excellence. I want to publicly thank our colleagues in product supply and R&D, who have enabled this progress with formulation, sourcing, manufacturing and logistics agility and extraordinary commitment to serve consumers, customers and each other through walk-downs, inbound supply shortages, outbound truck shortages, port blockages, natural disasters and geopolitical tensions. What P&G's people have accomplished together is truly extraordinary.

謝謝安德烈。過去四年，寶潔員工在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境下，面對強大的競爭對手，取得了卓越的成績。在這四年裡，寶潔員工透過出色地執行整合策略，實現了超過130億美元的年銷售額和約50億美元的稅後利潤。我要公開感謝產品供應和研發部門的同事們，正是他們憑藉配方、採購、生產和物流方面的敏捷性，以及在應對各種挑戰（例如現場勘察、進貨短缺、出貨卡車短缺、港口堵塞、自然災害和地緣政治緊張局勢）時，始終如一地服務消費者、客戶和彼此，才取得了這些成就。寶潔員工共同達成的成就的確非凡。

Still, we're very clear-eyed about the trials ahead. The list of challenges we face heading into our new fiscal year is longer than any I can recall. The progress we've made and our collective commitment to our strategies give me confidence we can manage through these challenges. We've never been better positioned. A portfolio that's focused on daily-use categories where performance drives brand choice; superiority across product, package, brand communication, in-store execution and value; leveraging that superiority to grow markets and our share in them; creating business versus taking business, powerful with our retail partners as we work to jointly create value.

儘管如此，我們對未來的挑戰依然保持著清醒的認知。新財年伊始，我們面臨的挑戰清單比我記憶中的任何時期都要長。但我們取得的進展以及我們對策略的共同承諾，讓我相信我們能夠克服這些挑戰。我們從未像現在這樣處於如此有利的地位。我們的產品組合專注於日常用品領域，在這些領域，產品性能決定了品牌選擇；我們在產品、包裝、品牌傳播、店內執行和價值方面都擁有卓越的優勢；我們將利用這種優勢來拓展市場並提高市場份額；我們致力於創造業務而非被動接受業務，並與零售合作夥伴緊密合作，共同創造價值。

We've developed a productivity muscle that helps address some of the challenges we face. We remain fully committed to cost and cash productivity in all facets of our business, up and down the income statement and across the balance sheet in each business and corporately. Productivity improvement is a necessity to drive balanced top and bottom line growth and strong cash generation.

我們已經培養出強大的生產力，這有助於我們應對面臨的一些挑戰。我們始終致力於在業務的各個方面提高成本和現金流效率，涵蓋損益表和資產負債表的各個環節，無論是在各個業務部門還是公司層面。提高生產力是實現營收和利潤均衡成長以及強勁現金流的必要條件。

Success in our highly competitive industry and in this dynamic and challenging environment requires agility that comes with a mindset of constructive disruption, a willingness to change, adapt and create new trends and technologies that will shape our industry for the future. In the current environment, that agility and constructive disruption mindset are even more important.

在競爭激烈的產業和瞬息萬變的環境中取得成功，需要具備敏捷性，而這種敏捷性源自於建設性顛覆的思維模式，以及變革、適應和創造新趨勢、新技術的意願，這些都將塑造我們產業的未來。在當前環境下，這種敏捷性和建設性顛覆的思考模式顯得格外重要。

Our organization structure is yielding what we intended: a more empowered, agile and accountable organization with little overlap or redundancy, flowing to new demands, seamlessly supporting each other. This improved agility and accountability have been important enablers of our strong results in the dynamic environment we faced.

我們的組織架構正在實現預期目標：打造一個權力更集中、更靈活、責任更明確的組織，減少職能重疊和冗餘，能夠靈活應對新的需求，並無縫地相互支持。這種敏捷性和責任感的提升，是我們能夠在瞬息萬變的環境中取得優異成績的重要推動因素。

Going forward, there are 4 areas in which we need to be even more deliberate and intentional to strengthen the execution of the strategy. The first is supply, improved capacity, agility, cost efficiency and resilience for a new reality and a new age. The capability investments we made prior to COVID to improve our manufacturing and distribution networks have helped us to manage through the last few years with relatively few prolonged issues. We're already making the next round of investments needed to ensure we have multiple qualified suppliers for key inputs, sufficient manufacturing capacity to satisfy growing demand and flexibility to meet the changing needs of all types of retailers.

展望未來，我們需要在四個方面更加謹慎和有意識地加強戰略執行。首先是供應鏈，包括提升產能、敏捷性、成本效益以及適應新情勢和新時代的韌性。我們在新冠疫情爆發前對製造和分銷網絡進行的能力投資，幫助我們在過去幾年中相對順利地度過了難關，鮮少出現長期問題。我們已啟動下一輪投資，以確保擁有多家合格的關鍵原料供應商、充足的生產能力來滿足不斷增長的需求，以及足夠的靈活性來應對各類零售商不斷變化的需求。

The second area is environmental sustainability, integrated into our product packaging and supply chain innovation work, irresistibly superior offerings that are sustainable. New cardboard packaging on Gillette razors is an improvement for the environment and a noticeably superior experience for consumers at the first and second moments of truth. New fully recyclable paper packaging on our premium Always cotton protection pads recently launched in Germany. Laundry detergent formulations that deliver superior cleaning in cold water, reducing energy usage, saving money and extending garment lifespans for consumers.

第二個領域是環境永續性，我們將其融入產品包裝和供應鏈創新工作中，致力於提供兼具卓越品質和永續性的產品。吉列刮鬍刀採用全新紙板包裝，不僅環保，還能在消費者購買的最初和次要時刻帶來顯著的更佳體驗。我們最近在德國推出的高階Always棉柔護墊也採用了全新的可回收紙質包裝。此外，我們也研發了冷水洗滌劑配方，可在冷水中達到卓越的清潔效果，進而降低能源消耗，幫助消費者節省開支，並延長衣物的使用壽命。

Third, increasing our digital acumen to drive consumer and customer preference, reduce cost and enable rapid and efficient decision-making. Increased digitization on manufacturing lines. More use of AI, more use of blockchain are not ends onto themselves. There are tools we can use to delight consumers and customers at the most reasonable cost possible.

第三，提升我們的數位化能力，以影響消費者和客戶的偏好，降低成本，並實現快速且有效率的決策。提高生產線的數位化水平，更多地應用人工智慧和區塊鏈，這些本身並非目的。我們可以利用各種工具，以盡可能合理的成本為消費者和客戶提供滿意的服務。

Fourth, our employee value equation for all gender identities, races, ethnicities, sexual orientations, ages and abilities for all roles to ensure we continue to attract, retain and develop the best talent. By definition, this must include equality. To deliver a superior employee value equation, there must be something in it for everyone.

第四，我們制定了涵蓋所有性別認同、種族、民族、性取向、年齡和能力的員工價值等式，適用於所有崗位，以確保我們能夠持續吸引、留住和培養最優秀的人才。顧名思義，這必須包含平等。要實現卓越的員工價值等式，必須讓每個人都能從中受益。

These are not new or separate strategies. They are necessary elements in continuing to build superiority and reducing cost to enable investment to value creation and strengthening our organization. They are part of the constructive disruption we must continue to lead.

這些並非全新的或獨立的策略。它們是持續提升自身優勢、降低成本、進而實現價值創造和強化組織建設的必要組成部分。它們是我們必須繼續引領的建設性變革的一部分。

The operational costs and currency challenges we faced over the last 2 years will continue in fiscal '23. We began the new fiscal year with consumers facing inflation levels not seen in the last 40 years. We know one of the most pressing questions out there is how we plan to deal with the severe cost and currency impacts we're facing: $6.5 billion after tax in just 2 years, nearly an $8 billion hit to operating profit.

過去兩年我們面臨的營運成本和匯率挑戰將在2023財年持續。新財年開始，消費者就面臨近40年來未見的通膨水準。我們知道，目前最迫切的問題之一是我們將如何應對嚴峻的成本和匯率衝擊：短短兩年內，稅後成本就高達65億美元，營業利潤損失近80億美元。

I'll repeat what I said on our April 2020 earnings call: the best response to uncertainties and challenges we face is to double down on the integrated set of strategies that are delivering very strong results. It won't be easy, there will be bumps along the road, but we have the portfolio, superiority, productivity and in my not-so-humble opinion, the best organization in the world. We have everything we need. So again, I think we are very well positioned.

我重申我在2020年4月財報電話會議上說過的話：應對我們面臨的不確定性和挑戰的最佳方案是加倍投入那些已經取得顯著成效的綜合戰略。這絕非易事，在前進的道路上難免會遇到坎坷，但我們擁有強大的產品組合、卓越的實力、高效的生產力，而且恕我直言，我們擁有世界上最好的團隊。我們擁有所需的一切。所以，我再次強調，我認為我們已經做好了充分的準備。

We're committed to keep investing to strengthen the superiority of our brands across innovation, supply chains and brand equity to deliver superior value for consumers in every price tier in which we compete. Alongside our productivity work, we'll continue to offset a portion of the cost impacts with price increases. Whenever possible, we'll close a couple of those price increases with innovation. Those moves will be tailored to the market, category and brand.

我們致力於持續投資，提升旗下品牌在創新、供應鏈和品牌資產方面的優勢，從而在我們所競爭的各個價格區間為消費者提供卓越價值。在提高生產效率的同時，我們將繼續透過漲價來抵銷部分成本上漲的影響。在條件允許的情況下，我們將透過創新來彌補部分漲價帶來的損失。這些措施將根據市場、品類和品牌的具體情況而定。

As consumers face increased pressure on nearly every aspect of their household budgets, we invest to deliver truly superior value in combination of price and product performance to earn their loyalty every day. So far, elasticities in most categories where we've taken price increases have been better than our historical experience.

隨著消費者在家庭預算的幾乎所有方面都面臨越來越大的壓力，我們致力於透過價格和產品性能的雙重優勢，提供真正卓越的價值，以贏得他們的忠誠。到目前為止，在我們提價的大多數品類中，價格彈性都優於以往經驗。

Our strategic choices on portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and organization are not independent strategies. They reinforce and build on each other, and the 4 focus areas that I mentioned strengthen the execution of that strategy. When all of this is executed well, we grow markets, which in turn grow share, sales and profit. These integrated strategies are a pathway to delivering a balanced growth.

我們在產品組合、卓越性、生產力、建設性顛覆和組織架構方面的策略選擇並非彼此獨立，而是相互促進、相互強化。我提到的四個重點領域進一步強化了這些策略的執行。當所有這些策略都有效執行時，我們就能拓展市場，進而提升市場佔有率、銷售額和利潤。這些整合的策略是實現均衡成長的途徑。

We've been talking about the importance of balance for a long time in the context of needing both top line and bottom line growth to deliver value for shareowners. We're in a world that needs more from us now. We need to expand that concept to serve and delight consumers, customers, employees, society and our shareowners. And I firmly believe that if we fail to do any of those, we will fail to do all of them.

我們長期以來一直在強調平衡的重要性，認為企業既需要營收成長也需要利潤成長，才能為股東創造價值。如今，世界對我們提出了更高的要求。我們需要拓展這個理念，服務並取悅消費者、顧客、員工、社會以及我們的股東。我堅信，如果我們未能做到其中任何一點，我們都將一事無成。

Our consumers increasingly rely on us to deliver superior solutions that are sustainable. Our world requires that we do our part in this regard. This challenge is also a wonderful opportunity to extend our margin of superiority, further grow our categories and create more value, all while positively impacting the environment and society. These strategies were delivering strong results before the pandemic and have served us well during these volatile times. We're confident they remain the right strategic framework as we move forward.

我們的消費者越來越依賴我們提供卓越且永續的解決方案。世界需要我們為此盡一份心力。這項挑戰也為我們提供了一個絕佳的機會，讓我們能夠進一步提升自身優勢，拓展產品類別，創造更多價值，同時對環境和社會產生正面影響。這些策略在疫情爆發前就已取得顯著成效，並在當前動盪時期也發揮了重要作用。我們相信，這些戰略框架將繼續引領我們走向未來。

With that, I'll hand it back to Andre to outline our guidance for fiscal 2023.

接下來，我將把任務交還給安德烈，讓他概述我們 2023 財年的指導方針。

Thank you, Jon. As we've said in each guidance outlook for the past 2 years, we will undoubtedly experience more volatility in the fiscal year ahead. This rings true again as we enter fiscal 2023.

謝謝你，喬恩。正如我們在過去兩年的業績展望中所述，毫無疑問，未來一個財年的市場波動性將會加劇。進入2023財年，這點依然成立。

The combined year-on-year profit headwinds from foreign exchange rates, freight costs, materials, fuel, energy and wage inflation are an even greater challenge in fiscal '23 than they were in fiscal '22. Based on current spot prices and supply contracts, we estimate commodities, raw materials and packaging material costs to be a $2.1 billion after-tax headwind in fiscal 2023.

匯率、運費、原料、燃料、能源和工資上漲等因素對利潤造成的年比不利影響，在2023財年比2022財年更為嚴峻。根據目前的現貨價格和供應合同，我們估計2023財年大宗商品、原材料和包裝材料成本將造成21億美元的稅後利潤損失。

Freight costs are expected to be higher in fiscal '23 compared to the average cost paid in fiscal '22 by roughly $300 million after tax. Foreign exchange rates have moved sharply against us even since our presentation at the Deutsche Bank conference in June. We now expect foreign exchange to be a $900 million after-tax headwind in fiscal '23. Combined, headwinds from these items are now estimated at $3.3 billion after tax, roughly equal to the challenge we faced in fiscal '22, a 23 percentage point headwind to EPS growth or roughly $1.33 per share as we start the year.

預計2023財年的貨運成本將比2022財年的平均成本高出約3億美元（稅後）。自從6月我們在德意志銀行會議上進行報告以來，匯率波動對我們極為不利。我們現在預計，2023財年外匯匯率波動將造成9億美元的稅後不利影響。綜合來看，這些因素造成的不利影響預計為33億美元（稅後），與我們在2022財年面臨的挑戰大致相當，這將使每股收益增長下降23個百分點，或年初每股收益下降約1.33美元。

As Jon said in his review of our strategies, we're working to mitigate the impact of these cost headwinds through a combination of innovation to create and extend the superiority of our brands, productivity in all aspects of our work, and pricing. With this context, I'll move to the key guidance metrics.

正如喬恩在對我們策略的評估中所說，我們正努力透過創新來減輕這些成本逆風的影響，從而打造並鞏固我們品牌的卓越地位，提高我們各項工作的效率，並優化定價策略。基於此，我將介紹一些關鍵的指導指標。

We expect global market value growth in our categories to moderate back towards a range of around 3% to 4% with strong price contribution, offset by modest decreases in unit volume. With the strength of our brands and commitment to keep investing in the business, we continue to expect to grow at or above underlying market levels, building aggregate market share globally. This leads to guidance for organic sales growth in the range of 3% to 5% for the fiscal '23.

我們預計，在強勁的價格驅動下，我們所在品類的全球市場價值成長將回落至3%至4%左右，但銷量的小幅下滑將抵銷部分成長。憑藉我們強大的品牌實力和對業務的持續投入，我們仍有望實現與現有市場水平持平或更高的增長，並在全球範圍內擴大市場份額。因此，我們預計2023財年的有機銷售成長將在3%至5%之間。

On the bottom line, we expect EPS growth in the range of in line to plus 4% versus fiscal '22 EPS of $5.81. This guidance equates to a range of $5.81 to $6.05 per share, $5.93 or up 2% at the center of the range. Considering a 6-point headwind from foreign exchange, this outlook translates to 6% to 10% EPS growth on a constant currency basis.

總而言之，我們預計每股盈餘 (EPS) 成長將與 2022 財年的 5.81 美元持平或成長 4%。這項預期區間為每股 5.81 美元至 6.05 美元，區間中心值為 5.93 美元，成長 2%。考慮到匯率波動帶來的 6 個百分點的不利影響，以固定匯率計算，這一預期相當於每股收益成長 6% 至 10%。

There are many possible scenarios that could cause us to be outside of this range to either side, high or low. While it's relatively easy to envision many possible scenarios, steeper inflation, deep recession, further geopolitical disruption or commodity cost reversion, easing inflation, peaceful conflict resolution, it's very difficult to assign probability to any single scenario. As a result, we set the range we feel is most probable based on market conditions as we see them today.

有很多可能的情況會導致價格超出這個區間，無論是高位還是低點。雖然設想各種可能的情況相對容易，例如通膨加劇、經濟深度衰退、地緣政治局勢進一步動盪或大宗商品價格回落、通膨緩和、衝突和平解決等等，但很難為任何單一情況賦予機率。因此，我們根據當前市場狀況設定了我們認為最有可能出現的價格區間。

We expect adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90% for the year. This includes a step-up in capital spending as we begin to add capacity in several categories. We expect to pay more than $9 billion in dividends and to repurchase $6 billion to $8 billion of common stock. Combined, a plan to return $15 billion to $17 billion of cash to shareowners this fiscal year. This outlook is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major supply chain disruptions or store closures are not anticipated within this guidance range.

我們預計全年調整後自由現金流效率將達到90%。這包括隨著我們在多個品類中開始擴大產能而增加的資本支出。我們預計將支付超過90億美元的股息，並回購60億至80億美元的普通股。合計，本財年計畫向股東返還150億至170億美元的現金。此預期基於當前的市場成長率預測、大宗商品價格和匯率。在此預期範圍內，我們預計不會出現貨幣大幅貶值、大宗商品成本上漲、地緣政治動盪、重大供應鏈中斷或門市關閉等情況。

Now I'll hand it back to Jon for his closing thoughts.

現在我把麥克風交還給喬恩，讓他做最後的總結發言。

The macroeconomic and market-level consumer challenges we're facing are not unique to P&G, and we won't be immune to the impacts. We've attempted to be realistic about these impacts in our guidance and transparent in our commentary. As we've said before, we believe this is a rough patch to grow through, not a reason to reduce investment in the long-term health of the business. We're doubling down on the strategy that has been working well and delivering strong results.

我們目前面臨的宏觀經濟和市場層面的消費者挑戰並非寶潔獨有，我們也無法免受其影響。我們在業績指引中力求對這些影響保持務實態度，並在評論中保持透明。正如我們之前所說，我們認為這只是一個需要克服的困難時期，而不是減少對公司長期健康發展投資的理由。我們將加倍投入行之有效的策略，該策略已取得顯著成效。

We'll continue to step forward toward our opportunities and remain fully invested in our business. We remain committed to driving productivity improvements to fund growth investments, mitigate input cost challenges and to maintain balanced top and bottom line growth.

我們將繼續掌握機遇，全力投入業務發展。我們始終致力於提升生產效率，為成長投資提供資金，應對投入成本挑戰，並維持營收和利潤的均衡成長。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

那麼，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) First question comes from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭。

I just had a couple of clarification questions related to the guidance. And I guess the first one is -- just want to make sure I'm looking at this correctly. If I look at the implied step-up in the tax rate and then the share repurchases, they sort of offset each other. So seems like the underlying guide assumes that profit growth will equal whatever revenue growth is. Just want to make sure I'm understanding that correctly.

我有一些關於業績指引的疑問需要澄清。首先，我想確認一下我的理解是否正確。如果我只看稅率的隱含提升和股票回購，它們似乎相互抵消了。所以，業績指引似乎假設獲利成長與營收成長持平。我想確認一下我的理解是否正確。

Yes. Our core EPS guidance, as I said, in the range of flat to plus 4% with a tax rate slightly higher than what we've seen in the previous fiscal year. This is driven by geographic mix changes, and it's also driven by reduced benefit from stock option redemption. From an operating profit standpoint, you're in the right ballpark. And I would leave it at that.

是的。正如我之前所說，我們的核心每股盈餘預期在持平到成長4%之間，稅率略高於上一財年。這主要是由於地理結構的變化，以及股票選擇權贖回收益的減少。從營業利潤的角度來看，您的預期基本上正確。我就說到這裡吧。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

You both spoke a number of times, I think Jon reinforced it at the end of the prepared remarks, about the need to drive continued cost and cash productivity. As I reflect on fiscal '22, I think it's fair to say that the expense productivity was an area that came in a bit light of going in expectations, at least external expectations.

你們兩位都多次提到這一點，我認為喬恩在準備好的演講稿結尾也再次強調了持續提高成本和現金流效率的必要性。回顧2022財年，我認為可以公平地說，成本效率的表現略低於預期，至少低於外界預期。

As you turn the page to fiscal '23, and maybe this is embedded in the answer to help drive that operating profit growth you just talked about, Andre, what's your confidence, your line of sight to be able to accelerate productivity in the year ahead? That's my main question. If you could also comment on just the -- mix has been a very material driver of margin for a while now. And I'm just curious to see your base case of how mix impacts your margin outlook in '23 as well.

展望2023財年，或許您剛才提到的提升營業利潤成長的策略就蘊含其中，安德烈，您對未來一年提高生產力有多大信心？這是我的主要問題。另外，如果您也能談談產品組合——它一直是影響利潤率的重要因素——那就更好了。我很好奇，您認為產品組合在2023年對利潤率的預期會是如何？

On productivity, you're right, it has to be a significant contributor to how we offset the inflationary cost impacts and enable reinvestment in the business in combination with pricing and innovation, as we said before. In fiscal '22, maybe let's go by area. From a cost of goods productivity standpoint, we've talked about us prioritizing production of cases to ship them and innovation as we were capacity-constrained. That has limited our ability to get cost savings qualified and through the P&L.

關於生產力，您說得對，它必須成為我們如何抵消通膨成本影響並結合定價和創新進行業務再投資的重要因素，正如我們之前所說。在2022財年，或許我們可以按領域來討論。從商品成本生產力的角度來看，由於產能受限，我們曾討論過優先生產產品以確保出貨和進行創新。這限制了我們獲得成本節約認證並將其計入損益表的能力。

That is changing in this current fiscal year. As the capacity situation eases, as we add more capacity and catch up with demand, we are able to get more cost savings qualified, catch up on some of the cost savings we delayed in fiscal '22. So we are expecting growth savings in the COGS area to get back to pre-COVID levels in this fiscal year.

這種情況在本財年有所改變。隨著產能緊張狀況的緩解，隨著我們增加產能並逐步滿足需求，我們能夠獲得更多符合條件的成本節約項目，並彌補2022財年因產能不足而延誤的部分成本節約項目。因此，我們預期本財年銷售成本領域的成長節約將恢復到新冠疫情前的水準。

We are very confident in our teams. They are -- have an unlimited number of creative ideas to drive further productivity. That still obviously is needed to offset inflation, which is equally strong in the fiscal year.

我們對我們的團隊非常有信心。他們擁有無限的創意，能夠進一步提高生產力。顯然，這仍然是抵消通貨膨脹所必需的，而本財年的通貨膨脹同樣強勁。

From a media standpoint, we have delivered significant productivity over the past years, but we have reinvested all of that productivity and incremental media spend ahead of sales leverage, ahead of the productivity numbers even that we generated. And that productivity continues to strengthen. We have developed strong capability to target better both on TV as well as in digital. Our ability to improve effectiveness of reach and quality of reach is allowing us to drive cost per effective reach down both in digital and in TV. We've shifted more and more spend into digital. Now more than 50% of our advertising is in digital.

從媒體角度來看，過去幾年我們取得了顯著的成效，但我們把所有收益和新增的媒體支出都重新投入到其他領域，而不是像銷售槓桿那樣，甚至超過了我們自身創造的收益。而且，這種成效還在持續提升。我們已經發展出強大的能力，能夠更精準地在電視和數位媒體上進行定向投放。我們提升了覆蓋率的有效性和質量，從而降低了數位和電視媒體的每次有效覆蓋成本。我們已將越來越多的支出轉移到數位媒體。現在，我們超過50%的廣告支出都來自數位媒體。

And with that, we are rolling out these capabilities to more and more businesses and more and more regions. That allows us to increase productivity on media spend in the current fiscal year to the point where we believe we will use some of that productivity not to reinvest fully but to actually flow through and help offset inflation. And some of that you saw in Q4 combined with other effects.

因此，我們將這些功能推廣到越來越多的企業和地區。這使我們能夠在本財年提高媒體支出效率，我們相信，我們將利用部分提高的效率，並非全部用於再投資，而是真正地將收益轉化為實際效益，幫助抵消通貨膨脹。您在第四季度已經看到了部分成果，並結合了其他一些因素。

General sales leverage and productivity on SG&A driven by sales leverage is well intact. You saw it flow through in quarter 4. That was 180 basis points helped to operating margin, and that should continue.

銷售槓桿對銷售、管理及行政費用的整體影響以及由此帶來的生產力提升依然顯著。這一點在第四季已經有所體現，營業利潤率提升了180個基點，預計這一趨勢將持續下去。

So in summary, I feel good about our productivity muscle. It continues to strengthen, and it will be needed to help offset some of the inflationary pressures we see.

總而言之，我對我們的生產力感到滿意。它持續增強，而這種增強將有助於抵消我們目前面臨的一些通膨壓力。

On product mix, we continue to see the same effect that we've seen in previous quarters, which is a negative impact to gross margin, roughly 130 basis points on the quarter, positive impact when you think about our portfolio. What we see is that consumers that come into the P&G portfolio, and we had big success in driving trial over the past 2 years, those consumers, if they try P&G products, they tend to trade up. And that trade-up comes with increased unit sales. It comes with increased penny profit, but the gross margin is slightly dilutive.

在產品組合方面，我們持續看到與前幾季相同的趨勢，即毛利率受到負面影響，本季下降約130個基點。但考慮到我們的產品組合，這反而會產生正面影響。我們發現，消費者一旦接觸到寶潔的產品組合（過去兩年我們在推廣試用方面取得了巨大成功），他們往往會選擇更高端的產品。這種高端產品會帶來更高的銷售和利潤，但毛利率會略微下降。

The example we use generally is Tide pods, about a 50% premium in unit sales versus liquid detergent per load, significantly higher unit profit, but from a gross margin percentage standpoint, slightly lower. So that same effect continues, and we expect that trade-up, hopefully, to continue in this fiscal.

我們通常以汰漬洗衣凝珠為例，其單位銷售量比每次洗滌的液體洗衣液高出約50%，單位利潤也顯著更高，但毛利率略低。因此，這種趨勢仍在持續，我們預計這種消費升級趨勢在本財年可望持續維持。

Our next question from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的達拉·莫森尼安。

I just wanted to discuss your level of visibility on the 3% to 5% organic sales growth guidance for fiscal '23. Obviously, there's a lot that builds into that, but I was curious for your perspective in a couple of areas. First, just the competitive environment. What are you seeing in your categories with the strong 8% pricing this quarter? Are competitors generally matching pricing in your categories?

我想和您探討一下您對2023財年3%至5%的有機銷售成長預期有何看法。當然，這其中有很多因素，但我比較想了解您在幾個方面的觀點。首先，是關於競爭環境。您認為本季價格上漲8%的品類市場狀況如何？競爭對手是否也採取了類似的定價策略？

And then, b, you're only assuming modest P&G market share gains for fiscal '23 with the 3% to 5% corporate organic sales growth and 3% to 4% category growth. So can you discuss what's driving the moderation in P&G market share gains and how potential pickup in private label share might play into that and the fiscal Q4 results?

其次，您假設寶潔公司2023財年的市佔率成長幅度不大，公司整體有機銷售額成長3%至5%，品類銷售額成長3%至4%。那麼，您能否探討一下是什麼因素導致寶潔市佔率成長放緩，以及自有品牌市佔率的潛在成長將如何影響這一趨勢以及第四財季的業績？

Yes. Thanks, Dara. You're right. Our top line guidance is, as always, grounded in what we expect in the marketplace. We see moderation -- or we expect moderation in the overall value growth in the market from the 5% we had over the past 12 months back to 3% to 4%. And we expect pricing to be the main driver in that market growth with volumes slightly down. That is a logical consequence of the broad-based pricing that we are seeing in the market, assuming there will be elasticity. We've seen elasticity, albeit better than expected based on historical levels, but we're seeing elasticity in the market, and that's reflected in our market growth assumption.

是的，謝謝，達拉。你說得對。和以往一樣，我們的業績指引是基於對市場的預期。我們預期市場整體價值成長將從過去12個月的5%回落至3%至4%。我們預計價格將成為市場成長的主要驅動力，銷售量則略有下降。這是市場普遍定價的必然結果，前提是價格具有彈性。我們已經看到了價格彈性，儘管比基於歷史水平的預期要好，但我們確實看到了市場彈性，這反映在我們的市場成長預期中。

We have full confidence in our ability to compete in this environment. Our categories being daily-use categories that consumers don't deselect even when they see high levels of inflation, our focus on Irresistible Superiority, our ability to make strong value claims based on that superiority, the breadth of our portfolio across the price letter and value tiers and across channels positions us well to compete in the environment. And most importantly, the strength in our innovation portfolio and the runway we have in driving household penetration and trade-up within the portfolio has us focused really on driving market growth. And that inherently drives share growth for us. That's part of our assumption to market size and relative share growth.

我們對自身在當前環境下的競爭能力充滿信心。我們的產品類別屬於日常用品，即使在高通膨時期，消費者也不會放棄這些類別；我們專注於打造無可抗拒的卓越品質；我們能夠基於這種卓越品質做出強有力的價值主張；我們擁有涵蓋不同價格等級和價值層級以及不同渠道的豐富產品組合，這些都使我們具備了強大的競爭力。更重要的是，我們強大的創新產品組合以及在提升產品滲透率和促進產品升級方面的潛力，使我們能夠真正專注於推動市場成長。而這自然會帶動我們的市佔率成長。這也是我們對市場規模和相對份額成長的預期之一。

As to the private label point, we see private label reemergence in some categories, mainly in the paper categories in some regions. Broadly, what I would tell you at this point, while we acknowledge private label coming back, partly due to supply dynamics in the base, we are still able to grow share in those markets where we see private label coming back. In the U.S. in the recent period, private label coming up a little bit in Family Care. But overall, we've been able to drive share growth on an all-outlet basis.

關於自有品牌方面，我們看到自有品牌在某些品類中重新興起，尤其是在某些地區的紙製品類別。總的來說，目前我想說的是，雖然我們承認自有品牌正在回歸，部分原因是基礎供應動態的變化，但我們仍然能夠在自有品牌回歸的市場中擴大份額。近期，美國家庭護理類別的自有品牌份額略有成長。但總體而言，我們已能夠在所有銷售管道中實現份額成長。

In Europe, private label shares are stronger. Private labels are reemerging in some of the markets. But for example, in the U.K. and France and Germany, we all have positive share reads in the most recent period. So we're keeping a close eye on it.

在歐洲，自有品牌市佔率表現強勁。自有品牌正在部分市場重新崛起。例如，在英國、法國和德國，我們最近幾季的市佔率數據均為正成長。因此，我們正在密切關注這一趨勢。

But again, I want to bring it back to the strategy, the portfolio, the superiority, the innovation, and we believe we are well positioned and continue to be well positioned to serve the consumer in this environment.

但是，我再次強調，我們要回到策略、產品組合、優勢和創新上來，我們相信我們已經並將繼續保持良好的地位，在這個環境下為消費者提供服務。

I just want to add one thing to that, agree with everything that Andre said. Both due to base period dynamics across ourselves and our competitive set and, as you said, there are due to many dynamics that are impacting both top and bottom line as we move forward, there will likely be more volatility in the numbers. There will be some bumps along the road. And you'll have to be careful how much you read into any 1-week or 4-week period. But we've got our eyes focused on a longer time period than that, and we'll be managing accordingly.

我只想補充一點，完全同意安德烈所說的。既包括我們本身以及競爭對手的基期動態，也正如你所說，還有許多其他因素會影響我們未來的營收和利潤，因此業績波動可能會更大。前進的道路上難免會遇到一些波折。所以，對於任何一週或四周的業績，我們都應該謹慎解讀。但我們著眼於更長遠的時期，並將據此採取相應的管理措施。

We'll go to our next question from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

接下來，我們來回答來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼提出的問題。

Two things, I guess. First is notwithstanding, Jon, your comments just now on scanner -- implied on scanner data. In the U.S., the market share performance has changed course. It's down slightly. It looks like a mix of things in terms of competitor, supply perhaps coming back. But I was just curious if you could comment on U.S. market share performance in general, was number one.

我想問兩件事。首先，儘管喬恩，你剛才提到了掃描器——也就是基於掃描器數據——但美國市場份額的表現已經發生了變化，略有下降。這似乎是多種因素共同作用的結果，包括競爭對手的變動以及供應可能正在恢復。不過，我最想問的是，你是否可以就美國市場佔有率的整體表現談談看法。

And then number two was China, which I believe is 9% or 10% of your sales. Down 11% is significant. I know that you've signaled previously that China was challenged because of the COVID lockdowns, but it does seem like it's disproportionate rate of decline versus what others are talking about. So if you could just talk to us a little bit about why your performance in China looks to be different than what we're hearing from some other multinationals. If it's specific to market share, if it's specific to mechanics of your operations. Just curious on some insights there.

其次是中國市場，我認為它佔你們銷售額的9%或10%。下降11%確實很顯著。我知道你們之前也提到過，受新冠疫情封鎖的影響，中國市場面臨挑戰，但與其他公司相比，目前的下滑幅度似乎太大。所以，能否請你們談談，為什麼你們在中國的業績與其他一些跨國公司的情況有所不同？是市場佔有率方面的問題，還是營運機制的問題？我們很想了解一些內情。

Let me just start in response to that question, Lauren, and then kick it over to Andre. We need to keep coming back to the strength of the top line. So in the U.S., for example, we grew 6% in the quarter, 8% over the course of the year. As you know, 7% total company, both on the year and the quarter. And that strength is broad-based. That's important. And we continue to protect -- project top line growth as well as modest share growth going forward.

蘿倫，我先回答這個問題，然後把話題交給安德烈。我們需要繼續強調營收成長的強勁勢頭。例如，在美國，我們本季成長了6%，全年成長了8%。如你所知，公司整體營收年增了7%，季度和全年都是如此。而且這種成長是全方位的，這一點非常重要。我們將持續維持營收成長，並預期未來市佔率也將穩定成長。

I'll ask Andre to provide specific commentary on China.

我會請安德烈就中國問題發表具體評論。

Very good. Lauren, on the -- maybe I'll start quickly with the U.S. share, if you'll let me. You're right. If you look at the past 1 week and past 4 weeks, we see a kind of 10, 20 basis point decline. And that's -- as Jon said, there will be wobbles along the way. The base period is extremely volatile. If you look at absolute shares in the U.S., we're up over the last 52 weeks, last 13 weeks to the last 1 week, we continue to increase absolute shares.

很好。勞倫，關於…如果可以的話，我想先快速談談美國股市的份額。你說得對。如果你看過去一週和過去四周的數據，我們可以看到大約下降了10到20個基點。正如喬恩所說，這段期間會有波動。基期波動性非常大。如果你看一下美國股市的絕對份額，過去52週、過去13週以及過去一周的絕對份額都在上升。

If you look at the periods that you're reading at the moment, just to give a bit more color, the 2 businesses that are down over this period are Fabric Care and Family Care, just to give color on the period effects here and the wobbles. Fabric Care had an amazing run in the U.S., 11% up on the quarter, 12% up for the year and high teen -- low teens up over the past 2 years. And we haven't kept up with capacity and that came to a head in March. Just as we are installing and starting up new capacity, we were supply-constrained over the AMJ quarter. So we reduced merch investment, we reduced media investment because we just didn't have the cases.

如果您看一下您目前正在閱讀的這些時期的數據，為了更清楚地說明情況，這段時間內下滑的兩個業務分別是織物護理和家庭護理，這可以更清楚地反映出這段時期的影響和波動。織物護理業務在美國表現非常出色，季度環比成長11%，年度成長12%，過去兩年也維持了接近10%的成長。但我們的產能一直跟不上，這個問題在3月達到了頂峰。正當我們安裝並啟動新的產能時，我們在AMJ季度又遇到了供應限制。因此，我們減少了商品投入和媒體投入，因為我們根本沒有足夠的貨源。

That is fixed in July. We're back in full supply as we started up new capacity, merch was reinstated, media was reinstated. Family Care-based period, you know the situation in Family Care, supply has been very constrained. And again, you're reading mainly base period effects, not sequential share effects. All-outlet share in the U.S. continues to be up. So we feel very confident in our U.S. business overall.

這個問題在7月已經解決。隨著新產能的啟動，我們的供應已全面恢復，商品和媒體管道也已恢復。您也知道，家庭護理用品的供應一直非常緊張。再次強調，您看到的主要是基期效應，而不是環比效應。美國所有通路的市場份額持續成長。因此，我們對美國整體業務充滿信心。

China, you're right. We have been significantly impacted by the COVID lockdowns. The read for us across our category footprint and regional footprint in China is that the market contracted double digits over the quarter periods that we're reading, and that is reflected in the results. More importantly, since consumer mobility started to resume, the COVID lockdowns are easing, we're seeing a return to growth in our categories. Our shares are responding favorably. So we're hopeful that we return to mid-single-digit growth in China over the next few quarters. Certainly, the team on the ground is excited, capable and has everything ready to go, but we need to see that consumer mobility come back.

你說得對，中國市場確實受到了新冠疫情封鎖的嚴重影響。從我們目前掌握的季度數據顯示，中國市場在我們各個品類和區域範圍內都出現了兩位數的萎縮，這反映在了我們的業績中。更重要的是，隨著消費者出行逐漸恢復，疫情封鎖措施也開始逐步放鬆，我們看到各品類都開始回升。我們的股價也對此做出了積極回應。因此，我們有信心在未來幾季內，中國市場能夠恢復到個位數中段的成長。當然，我們一線團隊充滿熱情，能力出眾，並且已經做好了一切準備，但前提是消費者出行能夠真正恢復正常。

And Lauren, relative to your question on the relative share performance, where you happen to have manufacturing operations located has a big impact on your ability to supply the market. And we had -- we were pretty significantly impacted by the location of some of the shutdowns, namely Shanghai, where we have 2 manufacturing centers and an important contract manufacturer supply. So that's one of the reasons for some of the noise within the share comparison.

勞倫，關於你提到的相對市場份額表現問題，生產營運地點對你的市場供應能力影響很大。我們確實受到了部分工廠停產的嚴重影響，尤其是上海，我們在那裡有兩個生產中心和一個重要的代工供應商。所以，這也是市佔率比較中出現一些波動的原因之一。

We'll go to our next question from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們來回答來自高盛的傑森·英格利希提出的問題。

Two questions. I guess kind of coming back to some of the topics that have already been raised. First, I mean, on market growth assumptions, the anticipated deceleration, is this coming from an anticipation that consumers are going to use less so as the volume comes in, trade down so mix comes in? Or maybe we lap some pricing and bring some more promotions back so pricing comes in? Which of those 3 components do you expect to be the bigger driver of category to sell?

兩個問題。我想算是回到之前討論過的一些話題。首先，關於市場成長預期，也就是預期成長放緩，這是因為預期消費者會減少消費，導致銷售下降，進而影響產品組合嗎？還是因為我們會降低部分產品的價格，並恢復一些促銷活動，進而影響價格？您認為這三個因素中，哪一個才是推動品類銷售成長的主要因素？

The -- it's a combination of what you described. As we said, pricing generally comes with a level of elasticity. Consumers don't leave the category, but they might look at their dosing behaviors. They might look a little bit closer at their inventories and draw that down over a period of time. Specifically, as they are more exposed to inflation broadly in the marketplace with the highest inflation in 40 years, it'd be naive to assume the consumer is not looking at their cash outlay and their spending even in our categories.

——這其實是您所描述的幾種情況的​​綜合。正如我們所說，價格通常具有一定的彈性。消費者不會完全放棄這個品類，但他們可能會調整用量習慣。他們可能會更仔細地審視自己的庫存，並在一段時間內逐步減少。具體來說，由於市場整體通膨水準處於40年來的最高水平，消費者更容易受到通膨的影響，因此，即使是在我們銷售的品類中，如果認為消費者不會關注他們的現金支出和消費情況，那就太天真了。

Though we see the elasticities be more favorable than historical norms to date, we continue our assumption that they return to historical elasticities going forward. We hope that's not the case, but our assumption is that, that returns to what we've seen in the past.

儘管我們看到目前的彈性係數比歷史平均值更為有利，但我們仍然假設未來彈性係數會回歸歷史水準。我們希望情況並非如此，但我們目前的假設是，最終會恢復到過去的情況。

The other element I would point to is just normalization of consumption patterns. As we saw very elevated consumption growth over the last 2 years, some of that will, at a total market level, probably return to more normal levels. Our job within that is for our brands and our categories to drive the household penetration opportunities, which we have. They are huge even in the most developed markets, even in the most developed categories, and that's what we're going to focus on.

我想指出的另一個因素是消費模式的正常化。過去兩年我們看到消費成長非常強勁，但從整體市場層面來看，部分成長可能會回歸正常水準。我們在此背景下的任務是，讓我們的品牌和品類推動家庭滲透，而我們確實擁有這樣的機會。即使在最發達的市場，即使在最發達的品類中，這些機會也非常巨大，而這正是我們將要專注的領域。

We'll go to our next question from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy 的下一個問題。

My question is on potential implications from the fallout with Walmart and your bigger retailers more broadly feeling margin pressure. From a category perspective, it's sort of well understood that the issues are more general merchandise and not consumer staples. But we have seen some ripple effects, right? They've announced freight fuel charges, which we have seen. So my question is really around any implications that you may be concerned about, whether more difficulty taking price, greater request for trade promotion. So any comments you have there in terms of what's going on with large retail customers would be helpful.

我的問題是關於沃爾瑪事件以及你們大型零售商普遍面臨的利潤壓力可能帶來的影響。從品類角度來看，大家普遍認為問題主要集中在一般商品而非必需消費品。但我們也看到了一些連鎖反應，對吧？例如他們宣布徵收燃油運費，我們已經感受到了。所以我的問題是，你們是否擔心這些影響，例如價格談判是否會更加困難，或者促銷要求是否會更高。如果您對大型零售客戶的現狀有任何看法，請不吝賜教。

Yes. Kevin, I'll start, and then Jon might want to add here. In general, we acknowledge -- as you said, Walmart indicated that the pressure they are seeing is in general merchandise and apparel. Our categories, when you think about the HPC categories broadly in Walmart and across all retailers in the U.S., really are still growing at a good clip. Our interests are generally aligned with retailers' interest as our job is to provide the best possible value to consumers as defined by price and performance of the product.

是的。凱文，我先說，然後喬恩可以補充。總的來說，我們承認——正如你所說，沃爾瑪表示他們面臨的壓力主要來自一般商品和服裝。但就沃爾瑪以及美國所有零售商的HPC類別而言，我們的品類仍保持著良好的成長動能。我們的利益與零售商的利益基本一致，因為我們的職責是根據產品的價格和性能為消費者提供最佳價值。

We both want to drive footfall to the store. We both want to drive traffic to the shelf. We both want to drive consumption of our propositions. In that sense, we continue to work constructively with Walmart and with all retailers to do that in the best possible way. Our strategy, grounded in the categories we play in, that are generally not categories that consumers deselect even in difficult times. Our superiority, our investment in innovation, our intention to drive category growth and to win with our retailers versus purely focusing on share growth, all of those are good things. In our mind, all of those are good things in the minds of retailers. The dialogue generally remains constructive but focused on providing the best possible value to the consumer.

我們都希望提升門市客流量，都希望吸引顧客瀏覽貨架，都希望促進我們產品的消費。為此，我們將繼續與沃爾瑪以及所有零售商進行建設性合作，力求以最佳方式實現這一目標。我們的策略立足於我們所處的品類，這些品類即使在經濟困難時期也通常不會被消費者放棄。我們的卓越優勢、對創新的投入、以及我們致力於推動品類成長並與零售商攜手共贏而非僅僅追求市場份額成長的決心，這些都是積極的因素。我們認為，這些因素對零售商而言也同樣有利。雙方的對話總體上保持建設性，始終圍繞著為消費者提供最佳價值這一核心目標。

We'll go next to Rob Ottenstein with Evercore.

接下來我們將採訪 Evercore 的 Rob Ottenstein。

Was wondering if you could talk a little bit about your price increases in July, maybe give a sense of order of magnitude and breadth, early reception. And then assuming the sort of elasticities that you expect, how far can those increases go to offsetting the 3.2 -- or $3.3 billion of headwinds that you outlined earlier.

我想請您談談7月的價格上漲情況，例如漲價的幅度、範圍以及市場早期的迴響。另外，假設您預期的價格彈性與實際情況相符，這些漲價能在多大程度上抵消您之前提到的32億美元（或33億美元）的不利因素？

The increases we're taking, and we've announced in June, July, are going into effect broadly in this quarter, July, August, September, towards the latter half of it. They are across most categories in the U.S. And we also announced pricing globally in the same ballpark, mid-single digits, but very differentiated. So in general, I would tell you, mid-singles -- probably mid- to high singles, but really tailored by country, by brand, by SKU to ensure that we do what I just described retailers are looking for, provide the best value for their relevant shoppers in terms of absolute price point, product performance and value tier.

我們在六月和七月宣布的漲價措施，將在本季（七月、八月和九月）下半年全面生效。這些提價涵蓋美國的大部分品類。我們也宣布了全球範圍內的提價幅度大致相同，在個位數中段，但會根據不同情況進行差異化調整。總的來說，我認為提價幅度在個位數中段——可能在個位數中段到高段，但會根據國家、品牌和SKU進行具體調整，以確保我們能夠滿足零售商的需求，在絕對價格、產品性能和價值定位方面為他們的目標客戶提供最佳價值。

The reaction to those price increases from a retailer environment is what you would expect. Nobody is pleased about the continued inflationary trends that we're seeing, but it remains a constructive discussion on how to best execute what we need, both from a retailer standpoint and from a manufacturer standpoint, which is recovery of inflationary cost measures to the extent that cannot be covered by productivity.

零售商對價格上漲的反應不出所料。沒有人樂見持續的通膨趨勢，但如何從零售商和製造商的角度出發，最好地落實我們所需的措施，即在生產力無法彌補的通膨成本方面進行有效討論，仍然是一個建設性的議題。

In terms of our ability to offset the latest inflationary trends across commodities and transportation, pricing is part of that. But the pricing we're taking is not covering the entire breadth of increases that we're seeing. That needs to be a combined effort between pricing, innovation and driving trade-up via innovation and productivity. But we feel good about every part of that equation. Our innovation portfolio is stronger than ever. Our productivity muscle is strong, and pricing dynamics and conversations remain productive.

就我們應對大宗商品和運輸領域最新通膨趨勢的能力而言，定價是其中的一部分。但我們目前的定價策略並不能完全涵蓋我們所看到的全部漲幅。這需要定價、創新以及透過創新和提高生產力來推動消費升級等方面的共同努力。我們對這一系列措施的各個方面都充滿信心。我們的創新組合比以往任何時候都更強大。我們的生產力實力雄厚，定價機制和相關討論也依然富有成效。

Just one additional point, Rob, the -- relative to the competitive environment. We're seeing price increases on private label brands and on mid-tier offerings that are even higher in some cases than our own price increases. I just offer that perspective as it relates to the ability to hold pricing and then -- and what it might mean for market share. As Andre said, it's a fairly constructive environment.

羅布，我還有一點要補充，那就是相對於競爭環境。我們看到自有品牌和中端產品的價格都在上漲，有些情況下漲幅甚至超過了我們自己的漲幅。我只是想從這個角度談談我們能否維持價格，以及這可能對市場佔有率產生的影響。正如安德烈所說，目前的市場環境相當有利。

Your next question comes from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala with Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

I'd like to talk a little bit more about the $1.33. It's such a substantial amount of money between commodities and FX and what's incorporated in there, particularly, whether it's forward purchasing agreements, hedges, any of those sorts of things. And I'm asking for, I guess, an obvious reason, which is commodity costs very recently have come down. And I'm sure you don't feel the benefit immediately, but how should -- if this is to continue, which is possible, how should we think about the impact that's going to have on the estimates you've given us so far?

我想再詳細談談這1.33美元。這筆錢數額龐大，涉及大宗商品和外匯交易，以及其中包含的各種因素，特別是遠期購買協議、避險等等。我問這個問題的原因顯而易見，那就是大宗商品價格最近大幅下降。我確信您不會立即感受到這種影響，但如果這種情況持續下去（這是有可能的），我們應該如何看待這會對您之前給出的預測產生怎樣的影響？

Yes. If you break it down, the $1.33, $2.1 billion of the $3.3 billion is driven by commodities, $900 million by FX and $300 million by transportation. On the commodity side -- so let me take each bucket here. On the commodity side, we've seen some of our commodities annualized, as you said, and maybe even decrease. But we've seen the majority of our commodity basket still increase week-over-week, month-over-month. So when you look at our overall commodity exposure, it is at this point in time stable to increasing. And our assumption going forward is at spot rates. So we assume stability within the commodity price environment versus current spot.

是的。如果細分來看，33億美元中的13.3億美元和21億美元主要來自大宗商品，9億美元來自外匯，3億美元來自運輸。關於大宗商品方面——讓我逐一分析。正如您所說，我們看到部分大宗商品的年化價格下降，甚至可能有所下降。但我們的大宗商品價格大多仍逐週、逐月成長。因此，就我們目前的整體大宗商品敞口而言，它處於穩定或上升狀態。我們未來的假設是以即期匯率計算。也就是說，我們假設大宗商品價格環境相對於目前即期匯率維持穩定。

We do not hedge our commodities. We are counting on our offsets within our total exposure between commodity FX and interest rates. So spot is the assumption we are using. And we still see slight increases week-over-week, month-over-month, certainly not to the tune that we saw at the beginning of '22.

我們不做大宗商品對沖。我們依賴的是大宗商品匯率和利率之間總敞口的對沖。因此，我們採用的是現貨價格策略。我們仍然看到每週、每月的小幅上漲，當然，漲幅遠不及2022年初。

On the foreign exchange rate, that is the fastest-increasing headwind, also a big headwind in quarter 4 that we had to overcome. The interest rate differentials keep widening versus the U.S. So we anticipate that headwind could further expand. But our forecast is based on current spot rate, so same methodology as on commodities.

外匯匯率是目前成長最快的阻力，也是我們在第四季必須克服的一大阻力。與美國的利率差持續擴大，因此我們預計這一阻力可能會進一步加劇。但我們的預測是基於目前的即期匯率，因此方法與大宗商品預測相同。

Transportation is a rollover versus the average price that we have paid in '21, '22. We see a little bit of easing here on the rate side. If you look at the load-to-driver ratio in the U.S., for example, that's down from a peak of 12 to now 4, which is more normalized. And some of the spot rates are coming down. That hasn't rolled over into contract rates at this point in time. If that happens, that could be a tailwind.

運輸成本與2021年和2022年的平均價格基本持平。我們看到運費方面略有回落。例如，美國的貨運司機比已從高峰12降至目前的4，更加正常化。一些現貨運費也在下降，但目前尚未反映在合約運費中。如果合約運費也隨之下降，可能會對市場有利。

Ocean freight, you see the number of ships waiting to get unloaded is decreasing, so that's normalizing. What I'll offer as the offset obviously is energy prices, fuel prices. So this one might offer some relief. But again, so far, we see this offset by fuel cost.

海運方面，可以看到等待卸貨的船舶數量正在減少，這說明海運正在恢復正常。我認為可以抵銷這項影響的是能源價格，也就是燃料價格。因此，燃料價格或許能帶來一些緩和。但同樣，到目前為止，我們看到燃料成本的上漲抵消了部分影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的克里斯凱裡。

So you noted that trade promotion was expected to be about $300 million after tax. I think you're referring to promotional spending, which is not an item, I think, typically, you call out specifically. So it does seem like you're indicating a more intentional desire to pick up promotional spending in order to help the consumer weather some of these cost increases. Is that a fair characterization? And then obviously, your price increases across much of your portfolio ahead. But are there specific categories or geographies where you specifically intend to lean in or where you think the consumer or the retailers need the most help?

您提到稅後貿易促銷預計約3億美元。我想您指的是促銷支出，而這通常不是您會特別提及的項目。所以，您似乎是有意增加促銷支出，以幫助消費者應對部分成本上漲。這樣的理解是否恰當？此外，顯然，您接下來的大部分產品組合都將漲價。那麼，您是否計劃專注於某些特定品類或地區，或者您認為消費者或零售商最需要哪些方面的幫助？

On the promo side, I'm not sure we intended to mention any number. But let me describe where we are. But John Chevalier can certainly clarify afterwards, if that question remains open. Our promotion strategy remains the same. If you look at promotion levels, they are relatively stable. I take the U.S. as the market where we have the best visibility and you have the best visibility. We're running at about 27% of merch, so that's volume sold on deal, and depth combined. That compares to a pre-COVID level slightly above 30% to a COVID low at 16%. But that 27% has been relatively stable over the past few quarters. So there's no significant increase in what we're observing.

關於促銷方面，我不確定我們是否打算提及具體數字。但我想先說明一下我們目前的狀況。如果還有疑問，John Chevalier 之後可以進一步解釋。我們的促銷策略保持不變。從促銷力道來看，目前相對穩定。美國市場是我們和你們都擁有最佳市場曝光度的市場。我們目前的促銷商品佔比約為 27%，這是促銷商品銷售和促銷深度的總和。相較之下，疫情前這一比例略高於 30%，而疫情期間則降至 16%。但過去幾個季度以來，27% 的比例一直相對穩定。因此，我們觀察到的情況並沒有顯著增長。

We are not planning to increase significantly. But that, again, is a very tactical decision that is being made at the market level at the category level. But our intention to win is via innovation via clarity of value offer, via our superiority, not via price promotion.

我們目前沒有大幅漲價的計劃。但這再次強調，這只是一個在市場和品類層面做出的策略性決策。我們取勝的策略是透過創新、清晰的價值主張和自身優勢，而不是價格促銷。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So my question is on RGM. I guess I'm [not seeing] if you're proactively or more reactively introducing new price points, perhaps Tide simply pulling some of these levers to help the consumer or if you're seeing basically the retailers, your customers requesting more of that help or that's too early to say. And if you can walk through what has happened with Beauty in China on new exits of the quarter. I guess that's one area that you could potentially see improvement there. If you can help us kind of like bridge that gap.

所以我的問題是關於RGM（零售成長管理）。我不太清楚你們是在主動還是被動地推出新的價格點，例如汰漬是否只是採取了一些措施來幫助消費者，或者你們是否看到零售商和客戶要求你們提供更多幫助，現在下結論還為時過早。另外，能否請您談談本季中國美妝新品上市的情況？我想這可能是個可以改進的領域。如果您能幫我們理清這方面的訊息，那就太好了。

Yes. On revenue growth management, that has been a priority for us, not only in the recent quarter but really over the past 2 to 3 years. So what we're benefiting from now was very intentional design of our revenue growth strategies over that period of time, including portfolio choices to have brand offerings available that cover different value tiers.

是的。在營收成長管理方面，這一直是我們的工作重點，不僅在最近一個季度，實際上在過去兩三年都是如此。因此，我們現在受益於這段時間以來精心設計的營收成長策略，包括選擇能夠涵蓋不同價值層級的品牌產品組合。

When you think about diapers, for example, we have the premium-tier Pampers Pure at $0.38 per diaper, Swaddlers at about $0.35 a diaper, Baby Dry at $0.30 and Luvs at $0.20 a diaper. So that's one example. And this exists across really all brands. And we've been very intentional in building our presence in these different value tiers in the market, so we can serve consumers with different preferences between performance and price.

以紙尿褲為例，我們有高階品牌幫寶適純淨系列，每片售價0.38美元；特級棉柔系列，每片售價約0.35美元；乾爽系列，每片售價0.30美元；以及露得清系列，每片售價0.20美元。這只是一個例子。實際上，所有品牌都存在類似的情況。我們一直致力於拓展不同價位的產品線，以滿足消費者在性能和價格上的不同需求。

We have also spent a lot of time and design effort in creating the right price points. And those price points relevant on everyday price but also providing the right merch price points for different channels. So that's work that's been going on in every category.

我們也投入了大量的時間和精力來制定合適的價格策略。這些價格策略既包括日常消費價格，也包括針對不同通路的商品價格。因此，我們在每個品類中都進行了這方面的努力。

And then lastly, we've expanded our distribution across channels that consumers would go to in a more value-driven environment, think about hard discounters or dollar channel, to ensure that we have strong relationships with our retail partners there, strong distribution and offerings.

最後，我們擴大了在消費者更注重價值的環境中會光顧的通路的分銷範圍，例如折扣店或一元商店，以確保我們與這些零售合作夥伴建立牢固的關係，並提供強大的分銷管道和產品。

So that work, yes, is indeed very important, but it has been ongoing over a longer period of time. As we take pricing, we ensure that we protect that strategy very carefully. And that's why pricing is so differentiated between markets, brands, channels as we execute.

所以，這項工作確實非常重要，而且已經持續很久了。在製定定價策略時，我們會非常謹慎地確保策略的有效執行。正因如此，我們在執行過程中才會針對不同的市場、品牌和通路採取差異化的定價策略。

On Beauty China, what I'll tell you is that we remain very confident that the Chinese market offers very attractive growth rates and very attractive value-creation opportunities for us. As mobility returns, as department stores reopen, as we develop stronger capability in digital channels, as we refocus our business on the core brand equities, we see progress. The progress is still relatively slow because mobility is only just reopening. But we remain very confident that, that business offers a lot of opportunity, and we are well positioned with our brands to play.

關於中國美妝市場，我想說的是，我們仍然非常有信心，中國市場能夠為我們帶來極具吸引力的成長率和價值創造機會。隨著出行恢復、百貨公司重新開業、我們在數位化管道方面的能力不斷增強、以及我們將業務重心重新聚焦於核心品牌資產，我們看到了進步。儘管由於出行尚處於恢復初期，目前的進展相對緩慢，但我們仍然堅信，中國市場蘊藏著巨大的機遇，而我們憑藉旗下品牌已做好充分準備，把握這些機遇。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell with Truist Securities.

你的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

Jon, this may be a little bit of a softball question, but I think we've run out of ways to ask about pricing in the consumer. But in your prepared remarks and then also I heard you on CNBC this morning say, "P&G is the best organization in the world." And I'm struck by that. In the 15 years I've known you, you've never been a cheerleader or someone to throw out superlatives. And coming on a quarter when technically, stock is down and you've missed, just why you feel that way now? Is the kind of turnaround or the catching of breath complete? You seem to want to get that message out there. So just anything more color you could give would be interesting and helpful.

喬恩，這個問題可能有點簡單，但我覺得我們已經沒什麼好問的了，關於消費者定價的問題。你事先準備好的演講稿裡，還有今天早上我在CNBC上聽到的，都說「寶潔是世界上最好的公司」。我對此印象深刻。認識你15年來，你從來都不是那種只會吹捧別人或動不動就誇大其詞的人。而且，現在正值財報季，公司股價實際上下跌，業績也未達預期，為什麼會有這種感覺？是公司已經扭轉頹勢，或者說已經緩過勁來了嗎？你似乎想把這個訊息傳達出去。所以，如果你能提供更多細節，那就太好了，也很有幫助。

There's clearly a desire to recognize extraordinary effort and results on the part of our organization broadly defined. The challenges that have been overcome while maintaining or improving service to consumers, customer and delivering both strong top and bottom line results, that's just not an accident. And we've been trying to become even more intentional about the importance of our organization, of our employee value proposition and delivering and sustaining superiority over time. So it's just, Bill, a reflection of that reality and my confidence in this organization to continue to step up and step forward into the challenges we face and continue to deliver strong progress from a business standpoint.

顯然，我們渴望表彰整個組織（廣義的組織）所付出的卓越努力和所取得的傑出成果。我們在維持或提升對消費者和客戶的服務的同時，克服了重重挑戰，並取得了強勁的營收和利潤增長，這絕非偶然。我們一直致力於更重視組織的重要性，提升員工價值主張，並努力維持長期的卓越表現。比爾，這正體現了這種現實，也體現了我對組織的信心，相信我們能夠繼續迎難而上，勇往直前，在業務方面取得持續的顯著進步。

Next question comes from the line of Olivia Tong with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Olivia Tong 與 Raymond James 的對話。

I'll be quick, but just 2 quick questions. First, are there more price actions planned versus what's already been announced? Is there anything being contemplated? Or everything that's been announced has been announced? And then secondly, just if you could give some color on your innovation pipeline and how it skews this year versus previous years potentially. Is there more premium versus more value and how you think about it in terms of contribution to price and mix?

我就簡單問兩個問題。首先，除了已經公佈的措施之外，是否還有其他價格方面的計劃？目前是否正在考慮其他方案？還是說已經公佈的都已經全部公佈完畢了？其次，能否簡單介紹一下貴公司的創新產品線，以及今年與往年相比有哪些變化？貴公司是更注重高端產品還是高性價比產品？您如何看待它們對價格和產品組合的影響？

On pricing, my answer is going to be quick. What's announced is announced, and everything else we can't talk about. But it's going to be a combination of pricing, productivity and innovation. That's as much as I can tell you. And we're always evaluating pricing and the necessity for pricing in every market every day. So that's an ongoing discussion.

關於定價，我的回答很簡單。已經公佈的內容就是已經公佈的內容，其他一切都不能透露。但定價將是價格、生產力和創新三者綜合考量的結果。我只能告訴你這麼多。我們每天都在評估各個市場的定價及其必要性。所以，這方面的討論一直在進行中。

In terms of innovation, fundamentally, our innovation pipeline looks out 5 years, 10 years. The innovation pipeline continues to be strong. It continues to drive superiority across the full portfolio because that's the definition of superiority. It's not just the premium end, and that doesn't really change.

從根本上講，我們的創新計畫著眼於未來5年、10年。創新計畫持續強勁，並持續推動整個產品組合的卓越表現，因為這正是卓越的定義。卓越不僅體現在高階產品上，這一點始終不變。

So when we talk Irresistible Superiority, we mean Irresistible Superiority at every price point for every product, for every consumer that we choose to compete for versus the relevant competitive offering. And that drives the innovation strategy and the strength of the innovation. I see it only improving and being broad-based.

所以，當我們談到「無可抗拒的優越性」時，我們指的是在每個價位、每個產品、每個目標消費者群體中，相對於相關的競爭對手產品，都擁有無可抗拒的優越性。這正是創新策略和創新實力的驅動力。我認為這種優勢只會不斷增強，並惠及更廣泛的消費者群體。

Your final question comes from the line of Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

你的最後一個問題來自 Mark Astrachan 與 Stifel 的合作系列。

One question and just a clarification or a reminder. How -- can you help us on just the leverage that you get from an SG&A standpoint given the volumes that we've seen over the last couple of years and then put that in the context of the slight volume decline in the June quarter just as a reminder there? That would be helpful.

還有一個問題，也想請您澄清一下。鑑於過去幾年的銷售量，您能否從銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）的角度，具體說明一下您能獲得的槓桿作用？另外，請您結合今年六月季度銷量略有下降的情況，再做個說明。這樣解釋會很有幫助。

And then more broadly, how do you think about the ability to sustainably invest given the exchange rates? And specifically, I'm talking about obviously dollar strength versus a lot of other currencies, especially given some of your overseas current -- overseas competitors who don't obviously have the translational impact. So how does that influence, if it does, your ability to sustainably invest and maintain those levels of investment going forward if the dollar remains where it is?

更廣泛地說，您如何看待當前匯率對永續投資的影響？具體而言，我指的是美元對許多其他貨幣的強勢，尤其是考慮到您的一些海外競爭對手，他們顯然沒有匯率波動的影響。如果美元匯率維持在當前水平，這會如何影響您未來的可持續投資能力以及維持現有投資水平？

Thanks, Mark. On SG&A leverage, so from a -- let me maybe start with the broader leverage point. So we generally see sales leverage when we see growth in the range of 3% to 4%, roughly. When we go north of 4%, the leverage becomes relevant and material. That's SG&A leverage. So if we grow in line with our guidance range, that will provide a level of sales leverage similar to what we would typically and historically have expected.

謝謝，馬克。關於銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）槓桿，我想先從更廣的槓桿角度談起。通常情況下，當成長率在3%到4%左右時，我們會看到銷售槓桿效應。當成長率超過4%時，槓桿效應就變得顯著且重要了。這就是銷售、管理及行政費用槓桿效應。因此，如果我們能夠按照預期成長，那麼銷售槓桿水準將與我們通常和以往的預期水準相近。

On the COGS side, you're right, the volume is the key driver for the leverage. With flat volumes, as we've seen in the fourth quarter, there obviously is no leverage. But that's where our productivity efforts are even more important. And that's why we're doubling down on our acceleration of productivity improvements. We'll talk about this more, I think, in our Investor Day, where we'll give you a bit more insight on supply chain 3.0, just to put more substance around the runway that we still have in driving productivity.

就銷售成本而言，您說得對，銷售是槓桿作用的關鍵驅動因素。正如我們在第四季所看到的，銷量持平，顯然槓桿作用不大。正因如此，我們提升生產效率的努力才顯得格外重要。因此，我們正在加倍努力，加速提高生產效率。我想，我們會在投資者日上更詳細地討論這個問題，屆時我們將更深入地介紹供應鏈3.0，並進一步闡明我們在提升生產效率方面仍有的潛力。

That also is the answer to your second question because you're right, foreign exchange rate represents a significant headwind for us. It might not represent that much of a headwind for some of our international competitors. We're well aware of that. We've been to this movie a few times. The answer to our question is strong growth, serving the consumer better than everybody else, delivering top line growth. That fuels our ability to invest in combination with strong productivity. So it reinforces our growth model. It reinforces the need for all components of the strategy to work. But I acknowledge foreign exchange rate is one of the more discriminating headwinds we have to deal with.

這也正是您第二個問題的答案，因為您說得對，匯率波動對我們來說是一個很大的阻力。對我們的一些國際競爭對手來說，這或許不算什麼阻力。我們很清楚這一點，這種情況我們已經經歷過好幾次了。我們問題的答案是：強勁成長，比其他任何公司都更能服務消費者，實現營收成長。這增強了我們的投資能力，並結合了高效的生產力。因此，它強化了我們的成長模式，也強化了策略中所有組成部分協同運作的必要性。但我承認，匯率波動是我們必須應對的最具挑戰性的阻力之一。

Great. Thanks for joining us this morning. Just one item to note before we sign off. We will be hosting an Investor Day here in Cincinnati on the afternoon and evening of Thursday, November 17. We'll be sending out another save-the-date reminder in the next week. But if you like more details, please get in touch with the IR team. Thanks and have a great day and weekend.

太好了。感謝您今天上午參加我們的活動。在結束之前，還有一件事需要說明。我們將於11月17日（週四）下午和晚上在辛辛那提舉辦投資者日活動。下週我們會再次發送活動預告。如果您想了解更多詳情，請聯絡投資者關係團隊。謝謝，祝您有美好的一天和週末。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以斷開連線了。祝您有美好的一天。