寶潔 (PG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter end conference call. Today's event is being recorded for replay.

早上好，歡迎參加寶潔公司的季度末電話會議。正在錄製今天的事件以供重播。

This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections. As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

本次討論將包括一些前瞻性陳述。如果您參考寶潔最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告，您將看到可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測存在重大差異的因素的討論。根據 G 條例的要求，寶潔需要讓您意識到，在討論過程中，公司將多次提及非公認會計原則和其他財務措施。 Procter & Gamble 認為這些措施為投資者提供了有關潛在業務趨勢的有用視角，並已在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了對非公認會計原則財務措施的全面調整。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

現在我將把電話轉給寶潔的首席財務官安德烈·舒爾滕。

Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Jon Moeller, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

大家，早安。今天和我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席、總裁兼首席執行官 Jon Moeller；和投資者關係高級副總裁 John Chevalier。

I'll start with an overview of results for fiscal year '22 and the fourth quarter, Jon will add perspective on our strategic focus areas, we'll close with guidance for fiscal '23 and then take your questions.

我將從 22 財年和第四季度的結果概述開始，喬恩將增加對我們戰略重點領域的看法，我們將以 23 財年的指導結束，然後回答您的問題。

Fiscal 2022 was another very strong year. Execution of our integrated strategies continues to yield strong sales, earnings and cash results in an incredibly difficult operating environment. We delivered broad-based strong top line growth across categories and regions, earnings growth in the face of significant cost headwinds, continued strong return of cash to P&G shareowners.

2022 財年又是一個非常強勁的一年。在極其困難的經營環境中，執行我們的綜合戰略繼續產生強勁的銷售、收益和現金結果。我們在各個類別和地區實現了廣泛的強勁收入增長，面對重大成本逆風的盈利增長，寶潔股東持續強勁的現金回報。

Organic sales for the fiscal grew 7%, up 13% on a 2-year stack, up 19% on a 3-year stack. Growth was broad-based across business units with all 10 of our product categories growing organic sales. Personal Health Care grew 20%; Fabric Care and Feminine Care grew double digits; Baby Care, up high single digits; Oral Care and Grooming, up mid-single digits; Hair Care, Home Care, Skin and Personal Care and Family Care each grew low singles. Focus Markets were up 5% for the year; Enterprise Markets, 10%.

本財年的有機銷售額增長了 7%，兩年增長 13%，三年增長 19%。業務部門的增長基礎廣泛，我們所有 10 個產品類別的有機銷售額都在增長。個人醫療保健增長 20%；織物護理和女性護理增長兩位數；嬰兒護理，高個位數；口腔護理和美容，中個位數；頭髮護理、家庭護理、皮膚和個人護理以及家庭護理均增長低單。焦點市場全年上漲 5%；企業市場，10%。

We delivered strong results in our largest and most profitable market, the United States, with organic sales growing 8%, up 16% on a 2-year stack. E-commerce sales increased 11%, now representing 14% of company total. Our integrated strategies continue to drive strong market growth, and in turn, share growth for P&G. All channel market value in the U.S. categories in which we compete grew approximately 6% in fiscal '22. P&G value share continued to grow, up 90 basis points for the year.

我們在我們最大和最賺錢的市場美國取得了強勁的業績，有機銷售額增長了 8%，兩年內增長了 16%。電子商務銷售額增長了 11%，現在占公司總銷售額的 14%。我們的綜合戰略繼續推動強勁的市場增長，進而推動寶潔的份額增長。我們競爭的美國類別的所有渠道市場價值在 22 財年增長了約 6%。寶潔價值份額繼續增長，全年增長 90 個基點。

Global aggregate market share increased 50 basis points. 36 of our top 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the year. Importantly, this share growth is broad-based. 9 of 10 product categories grew share globally over the past year. Core earnings per share grew 3% for the year despite a 22 percentage point headwind to earnings from commodities, freight and foreign exchange. Our initial outlook predicted $1.8 billion after tax of headwinds. We ended up at $3.2 billion. So despite an incremental $1.4 billion of earnings pressure versus ingoing plan, we delivered core EPS growth within our initial guidance range for the year.

全球總市場份額增加 50 個基點。在我們排名前 50 位的國家/地區組合中，有 36 個在這一年保持或增長了份額。重要的是，這種份額增長是廣泛的。過去一年，全球 10 個產品類別中有 9 個的份額有所增長。儘管商品、貨運和外匯收益受到 22 個百分點的不利影響，但全年每股核心收益增長了 3%。我們的初步展望預計稅後為 18 億美元。我們最終獲得了 32 億美元。因此，儘管與進入計劃相比，盈利壓力增加了 14 億美元，但我們在今年的初始指導範圍內實現了核心每股收益增長。

On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS was up 5%. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 93%. We increased our dividend by 5% and returned nearly $19 billion of value to shareowners, $8.8 billion in dividends and $10 billion in share repurchase.

在貨幣中性的基礎上，核心每股收益增長了 5%。調整後的自由現金流生產率為 93%。我們將股息提高了 5%，並向股東返還了近 190 億美元的價值、88 億美元的股息和 100 億美元的股票回購。

Moving to the April-June quarter. Organic sales grew 7%. Pricing contributed 8 points to organic sales growth as additional price increases reached the market. Mix was flat and volume declined 1 point, which is due to reduced operations in Russia. Volume for the balance of the business excluding Russia was up 1 point. These strong company results are grounded in broad-based category and geographic strength.

移動到 4 月至 6 月季度。有機銷售額增長了 7%。隨著額外的價格上漲進入市場，定價為有機銷售增長貢獻了 8 個百分點。混合持平，成交量下降 1 個百分點，這是由於俄羅斯業務減少。不包括俄羅斯的業務餘額增加了 1 個百分點。這些強勁的公司業績基於廣泛的類別和地理優勢。

9 of the 10 product categories grew organic sales in the quarter. Personal Health Care grew mid-teens; Fem Care was up low teens; Fabric Care grew double digits; Oral Care, up high singles; Baby Care and Family Care, up mid-single digits; Hair Care, Home Care and Grooming, each grew low singles. 5 of 7 regions grew organic sales with Focus Markets up 3% and Enterprise Markets up 18% for the quarter.

10 個產品類別中有 9 個在本季度實現了有機銷售額增長。個人保健在十幾歲時成長； Fem Care 在青少年時期處於低位；織物護理增長兩位數；口腔護理，高達單打；嬰兒護理和家庭護理，上升中個位數；頭髮護理、家庭護理和美容，每個都長得很低。 7 個地區中有 5 個地區的有機銷售額增長，本季度焦點市場增長 3%，企業市場增長 18%。

Organic sales in the U.S. grew 6%, up 24% on a 3-year stack. European Focus Markets were up 3%. Excluding Russia, Europe Focus Markets were up 7%. Greater China organic sales were down 11%, mainly due to COVID-driven lockdowns in major regions of the market. Since lockdowns have eased, we've seen sequential market recovery but somewhat slower than expected when we gave guidance last quarter.

美國的有機銷售額增長了 6%，連續 3 年增長了 24%。歐洲焦點市場上漲 3%。除俄羅斯外，歐洲焦點市場上漲 7%。大中華區有機銷售額下降 11%，主要是由於市場主要地區因新冠疫情而實施的封鎖。由於封鎖有所緩解，我們看到市場連續復甦，但比我們上個季度給出指導時的預期要慢。

In Enterprise Markets, each of the 3 regions grew organic sales 14% or more. Global aggregate market share increased 50 basis points. 29 of our top 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the quarter. On the bottom line, core earnings per share were $1.21, up 7% versus prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS increased 12%.

在企業市場中，三個地區的有機銷售額均增長了 14% 或更多。全球總市場份額增加 50 個基點。本季度，我們排名前 50 的類別國家組合中有 29 個保持或增長了份額。最重要的是，每股核心收益為 1.21 美元，比去年同期增長 7%。在貨幣中性的基礎上，核心每股收益增長了 12%。

Core operating margin decreased 30 basis points as gross margin pressure were largely offset by sales leverage and productivity improvements in SG&A. Currency-neutral operating margin increased 20 basis points. Free cash flow productivity was 99%. We returned $3.5 billion of cash to shareowners this quarter, nearly $2.3 billion in dividends and nearly [$1.3 billion] in share repurchase.

由於毛利率壓力在很大程度上被銷售槓桿和 SG&A 的生產力提高所抵消，核心營業利潤率下降了 30 個基點。貨幣中性營業利潤率增加 20 個基點。自由現金流生產率為 99%。我們本季度向股東返還了 35 億美元現金、近 23 億美元的股息和近 [13 億美元] 的股票回購。

In summary, we met or exceeded each of our going-in target ranges for the year: organic sales growth, core EPS growth, free cash flow productivity and cash return to shareowners. Strong performance in very difficult operating conditions.

總之，我們達到或超過了我們今年的每個目標範圍：有機銷售增長、核心每股收益增長、自由現金流生產率和股東現金回報。在非常困難的操作條件下表現出色。

Now I'll pass it over to Jon.

現在我會把它交給喬恩。

Thanks, Andre. P&G employees have delivered great results over the past 4 years in a very challenging macro environment against very capable competition. In those 4 years, P&G people have added more than $13 billion in annual sales and roughly $5 billion in after-tax profit, executing our integrated strategies with excellence. I want to publicly thank our colleagues in product supply and R&D, who have enabled this progress with formulation, sourcing, manufacturing and logistics agility and extraordinary commitment to serve consumers, customers and each other through walk-downs, inbound supply shortages, outbound truck shortages, port blockages, natural disasters and geopolitical tensions. What P&G's people have accomplished together is truly extraordinary.

謝謝，安德烈。過去 4 年，寶潔員工在極具挑戰性的宏觀環境中與非常有能力的競爭對手取得了豐碩的成果。在這 4 年裡，寶潔人的年銷售額增加了超過 130 億美元，稅後利潤約為 50 億美元，出色地執行了我們的綜合戰略。我要公開感謝我們在產品供應和研發部門的同事，他們以配方、採購、製造和物流的敏捷性以及非凡的承諾為消費者、客戶和彼此提供服務，通過步行、入站供應短缺、出站卡車短缺，推動了這一進展、港口堵塞、自然災害和地緣政治緊張局勢。寶潔的員工共同取得的成就確實非同尋常。

Still, we're very clear-eyed about the trials ahead. The list of challenges we face heading into our new fiscal year is longer than any I can recall. The progress we've made and our collective commitment to our strategies give me confidence we can manage through these challenges. We've never been better positioned. A portfolio that's focused on daily-use categories where performance drives brand choice; superiority across product, package, brand communication, in-store execution and value; leveraging that superiority to grow markets and our share in them; creating business versus taking business, powerful with our retail partners as we work to jointly create value.

儘管如此，我們對未來的試驗非常清楚。進入新財年，我們面臨的挑戰清單比我記得的要長。我們取得的進展以及我們對戰略的集體承諾讓我有信心應對這些挑戰。我們的位置從未像現在這樣好。專注於性能驅動品牌選擇的日常使用類別的產品組合；在產品、包裝、品牌傳播、店內執行和價值方面的優勢；利用這種優勢來發展市場和我們在其中的份額；與我們的零售合作夥伴一起努力創造價值，創造業務與獲取業務。

We've developed a productivity muscle that helps address some of the challenges we face. We remain fully committed to cost and cash productivity in all facets of our business, up and down the income statement and across the balance sheet in each business and corporately. Productivity improvement is a necessity to drive balanced top and bottom line growth and strong cash generation.

我們開發了一種生產力肌肉，有助於解決我們面臨的一些挑戰。我們仍然完全致力於我們業務的各個方面的成本和現金生產力，無論是在損益表的上下以及每個業務和公司的資產負債表中。提高生產力是推動平衡的頂線和底線增長以及強勁的現金產生的必要條件。

Success in our highly competitive industry and in this dynamic and challenging environment requires agility that comes with a mindset of constructive disruption, a willingness to change, adapt and create new trends and technologies that will shape our industry for the future. In the current environment, that agility and constructive disruption mindset are even more important.

在我們競爭激烈的行業以及在這個充滿活力和充滿挑戰的環境中取得成功，需要敏捷性以及建設性顛覆的心態，願意改變、適應和創造將塑造我們行業未來的新趨勢和技術。在當前環境下，這種敏捷性和建設性的顛覆心態更為重要。

Our organization structure is yielding what we intended: a more empowered, agile and accountable organization with little overlap or redundancy, flowing to new demands, seamlessly supporting each other. This improved agility and accountability have been important enablers of our strong results in the dynamic environment we faced.

我們的組織結構正在實現我們的預期：一個更強大、更敏捷、更負責任的組織，幾乎沒有重疊或冗餘，可以滿足新的需求，無縫地相互支持。這種提高的敏捷性和問責制是我們在面臨的動態環境中取得強勁成果的重要推動力。

Going forward, there are 4 areas in which we need to be even more deliberate and intentional to strengthen the execution of the strategy. The first is supply, improved capacity, agility, cost efficiency and resilience for a new reality and a new age. The capability investments we made prior to COVID to improve our manufacturing and distribution networks have helped us to manage through the last few years with relatively few prolonged issues. We're already making the next round of investments needed to ensure we have multiple qualified suppliers for key inputs, sufficient manufacturing capacity to satisfy growing demand and flexibility to meet the changing needs of all types of retailers.

展望未來，我們需要在四個方面更加慎重和有意識地加強戰略的執行。首先是新現實和新時代的供應、改進的產能、敏捷性、成本效率和彈性。我們在 COVID 之前為改善我們的製造和分銷網絡而進行的能力投資幫助我們在過去幾年中進行了管理，相對較少的長期問題。我們已經在進行下一輪投資，以確保我們擁有多個合格的關鍵投入供應商、足夠的製造能力來滿足不斷增長的需求以及滿足所有類型零售商不斷變化的需求的靈活性。

The second area is environmental sustainability, integrated into our product packaging and supply chain innovation work, irresistibly superior offerings that are sustainable. New cardboard packaging on Gillette razors is an improvement for the environment and a noticeably superior experience for consumers at the first and second moments of truth. New fully recyclable paper packaging on our premium Always cotton protection pads recently launched in Germany. Laundry detergent formulations that deliver superior cleaning in cold water, reducing energy usage, saving money and extending garment lifespans for consumers.

第二個領域是環境可持續性，融入我們的產品包裝和供應鏈創新工作，提供不可抗拒的可持續優質產品。吉列剃須刀上的新紙板包裝改善了環境，並在第一和第二時刻為消費者提供了顯著的卓越體驗。我們最近在德國推出的優質 Always 棉保護墊採用全新的完全可回收紙包裝。洗衣粉配方可在冷水中提供卓越的清潔效果，減少能源使用，為消費者節省資金並延長服裝使用壽命。

Third, increasing our digital acumen to drive consumer and customer preference, reduce cost and enable rapid and efficient decision-making. Increased digitization on manufacturing lines. More use of AI, more use of blockchain are not ends onto themselves. There are tools we can use to delight consumers and customers at the most reasonable cost possible.

第三，提高我們的數字敏銳度，以推動消費者和客戶的偏好，降低成本並實現快速高效的決策。提高生產線的數字化水平。更多地使用人工智能，更多地使用區塊鏈並不是目的。我們可以使用一些工具以盡可能合理的成本取悅消費者和客戶。

Fourth, our employee value equation for all gender identities, races, ethnicities, sexual orientations, ages and abilities for all roles to ensure we continue to attract, retain and develop the best talent. By definition, this must include equality. To deliver a superior employee value equation, there must be something in it for everyone.

第四，我們所有角色的所有性別認同、種族、民族、性取向、年齡和能力的員工價值等式，以確保我們繼續吸引、留住和培養最優秀的人才。根據定義，這必須包括平等。為了提供卓越的員工價值等式，每個人都必須有一些東西。

These are not new or separate strategies. They are necessary elements in continuing to build superiority and reducing cost to enable investment to value creation and strengthening our organization. They are part of the constructive disruption we must continue to lead.

這些不是新的或單獨的策略。它們是繼續建立優勢和降低成本以實現投資以創造價值和加強我們組織的必要要素。它們是我們必須繼續領導的建設性破壞的一部分。

The operational costs and currency challenges we faced over the last 2 years will continue in fiscal '23. We began the new fiscal year with consumers facing inflation levels not seen in the last 40 years. We know one of the most pressing questions out there is how we plan to deal with the severe cost and currency impacts we're facing: $6.5 billion after tax in just 2 years, nearly an $8 billion hit to operating profit.

我們在過去 2 年面臨的運營成本和貨幣挑戰將在 23 財年繼續存在。我們在新的財政年度開始時，消費者面臨著過去 40 年未見的通脹水平。我們知道目前最緊迫的問題之一是我們計劃如何應對我們面臨的嚴重成本和貨幣影響：僅 2 年內稅後 65 億美元，營業利潤損失近 80 億美元。

I'll repeat what I said on our April 2020 earnings call: the best response to uncertainties and challenges we face is to double down on the integrated set of strategies that are delivering very strong results. It won't be easy, there will be bumps along the road, but we have the portfolio, superiority, productivity and in my not-so-humble opinion, the best organization in the world. We have everything we need. So again, I think we are very well positioned.

我將重複我在 2020 年 4 月的財報電話會議上所說的話：對我們面臨的不確定性和挑戰的最佳回應是加倍投入能夠帶來非常強勁結果的綜合戰略。這並不容易，路上會遇到坎坷，但我們擁有投資組合、優勢、生產力，而且在我不那麼謙虛的看法中，我們擁有世界上最好的組織。我們擁有我們需要的一切。再說一次，我認為我們處於非常有利的位置。

We're committed to keep investing to strengthen the superiority of our brands across innovation, supply chains and brand equity to deliver superior value for consumers in every price tier in which we compete. Alongside our productivity work, we'll continue to offset a portion of the cost impacts with price increases. Whenever possible, we'll close a couple of those price increases with innovation. Those moves will be tailored to the market, category and brand.

我們致力於繼續投資，以加強我們品牌在創新、供應鍊和品牌資產方面的優勢，為我們競爭的每個價格層級的消費者提供卓越的價值。除了我們的生產力工作，我們將繼續通過價格上漲來抵消部分成本影響。只要有可能，我們將通過創新來結束其中一些價格上漲。這些舉措將根據市場、品類和品牌量身定制。

As consumers face increased pressure on nearly every aspect of their household budgets, we invest to deliver truly superior value in combination of price and product performance to earn their loyalty every day. So far, elasticities in most categories where we've taken price increases have been better than our historical experience.

隨著消費者在家庭預算的幾乎各個方面面臨越來越大的壓力，我們投資以提供真正卓越的價格和產品性能，以每天贏得他們的忠誠度。到目前為止，我們採取價格上漲的大多數類別的彈性都比我們的歷史經驗要好。

Our strategic choices on portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and organization are not independent strategies. They reinforce and build on each other, and the 4 focus areas that I mentioned strengthen the execution of that strategy. When all of this is executed well, we grow markets, which in turn grow share, sales and profit. These integrated strategies are a pathway to delivering a balanced growth.

我們在投資組合、優勢、生產力、建設性顛覆和組織方面的戰略選擇不是獨立的戰略。它們相互加強和建立，我提到的 4 個重點領域加強了該戰略的執行。當所有這些都執行得很好時，我們就會擴大市場，進而增加份額、銷售額和利潤。這些綜合戰略是實現平衡增長的途徑。

We've been talking about the importance of balance for a long time in the context of needing both top line and bottom line growth to deliver value for shareowners. We're in a world that needs more from us now. We need to expand that concept to serve and delight consumers, customers, employees, society and our shareowners. And I firmly believe that if we fail to do any of those, we will fail to do all of them.

在需要頂線和底線增長為股東創造價值的背景下，我們長期以來一直在談論平衡的重要性。我們現在所處的世界需要我們提供更多。我們需要擴展這一概念，以服務和取悅消費者、客戶、員工、社會和我們的股東。我堅信，如果我們不能做到其中任何一個，我們將無法做到所有這些。

Our consumers increasingly rely on us to deliver superior solutions that are sustainable. Our world requires that we do our part in this regard. This challenge is also a wonderful opportunity to extend our margin of superiority, further grow our categories and create more value, all while positively impacting the environment and society. These strategies were delivering strong results before the pandemic and have served us well during these volatile times. We're confident they remain the right strategic framework as we move forward.

我們的消費者越來越依賴我們提供可持續的卓越解決方案。我們的世界要求我們在這方面儘自己的一份力量。這一挑戰也是擴大我們的優勢範圍、進一步擴大我們的品類並創造更多價值的絕佳機會，同時對環境和社會產生積極影響。這些策略在大流行之前取得了顯著成果，並在這些動蕩的時期為我們提供了良好的服務。我們相信，在我們前進的過程中，它們仍然是正確的戰略框架。

With that, I'll hand it back to Andre to outline our guidance for fiscal 2023.

有了這個，我將把它交給安德烈，概述我們對 2023 財年的指導。

Thank you, Jon. As we've said in each guidance outlook for the past 2 years, we will undoubtedly experience more volatility in the fiscal year ahead. This rings true again as we enter fiscal 2023.

謝謝你，喬恩。正如我們在過去兩年的每個指導展望中所說的那樣，我們無疑將在未來的財政年度經歷更多的波動。當我們進入 2023 財年時，這再次成為現實。

The combined year-on-year profit headwinds from foreign exchange rates, freight costs, materials, fuel, energy and wage inflation are an even greater challenge in fiscal '23 than they were in fiscal '22. Based on current spot prices and supply contracts, we estimate commodities, raw materials and packaging material costs to be a $2.1 billion after-tax headwind in fiscal 2023.

外匯匯率、運費成本、材料、燃料、能源和工資通脹帶來的同比利潤逆風在 23 財年比在 22 財年面臨更大的挑戰。根據當前的現貨價格和供應合同，我們估計 2023 財年的商品、原材料和包裝材料成本將是 21 億美元的稅後逆風。

Freight costs are expected to be higher in fiscal '23 compared to the average cost paid in fiscal '22 by roughly $300 million after tax. Foreign exchange rates have moved sharply against us even since our presentation at the Deutsche Bank conference in June. We now expect foreign exchange to be a $900 million after-tax headwind in fiscal '23. Combined, headwinds from these items are now estimated at $3.3 billion after tax, roughly equal to the challenge we faced in fiscal '22, a 23 percentage point headwind to EPS growth or roughly $1.33 per share as we start the year.

與 22 財年支付的平均稅後成本相比，預計 23 財年的運費成本將高出約 3 億美元。自從我們在 6 月的德意志銀行會議上發表演講以來，外匯匯率就已經對我們不利。我們現在預計外彙在 23 財年將是 9 億美元的稅後逆風。加起來，這些項目的稅後逆風現在估計為 33 億美元，大致相當於我們在 22 財年面臨的挑戰，即每股收益增長 23 個百分點的逆風，即我們年初時每股約 1.33 美元。

As Jon said in his review of our strategies, we're working to mitigate the impact of these cost headwinds through a combination of innovation to create and extend the superiority of our brands, productivity in all aspects of our work, and pricing. With this context, I'll move to the key guidance metrics.

正如喬恩在對我們戰略的回顧中所說，我們正在努力通過結合創新來減輕這些成本逆風的影響，以創造和擴大我們品牌的優勢、我們工作各個方面的生產力和定價。在此背景下，我將轉向關鍵指導指標。

We expect global market value growth in our categories to moderate back towards a range of around 3% to 4% with strong price contribution, offset by modest decreases in unit volume. With the strength of our brands and commitment to keep investing in the business, we continue to expect to grow at or above underlying market levels, building aggregate market share globally. This leads to guidance for organic sales growth in the range of 3% to 5% for the fiscal '23.

我們預計，我們類別的全球市場價值增長將放緩至 3% 至 4% 左右，價格貢獻強勁，但被單位數量的適度下降所抵消。憑藉我們品牌的實力和對業務持續投資的承諾，我們繼續期望增長達到或高於潛在市場水平，從而在全球範圍內建立總體市場份額。這導致了 23 財年有機銷售增長在 3% 到 5% 範圍內的指導。

On the bottom line, we expect EPS growth in the range of in line to plus 4% versus fiscal '22 EPS of $5.81. This guidance equates to a range of $5.81 to $6.05 per share, $5.93 or up 2% at the center of the range. Considering a 6-point headwind from foreign exchange, this outlook translates to 6% to 10% EPS growth on a constant currency basis.

歸根結底，我們預計每股收益將增長 4%，而 22 財年每股收益為 5.81 美元。該指引相當於每股 5.81 美元至 6.05 美元的範圍，5.93 美元或在該範圍的中心上漲 2%。考慮到來自外彙的 6 個百分點的逆風，這一前景轉化為 6% 至 10% 的每股收益增長（按固定匯率計算）。

There are many possible scenarios that could cause us to be outside of this range to either side, high or low. While it's relatively easy to envision many possible scenarios, steeper inflation, deep recession, further geopolitical disruption or commodity cost reversion, easing inflation, peaceful conflict resolution, it's very difficult to assign probability to any single scenario. As a result, we set the range we feel is most probable based on market conditions as we see them today.

有許多可能的情況會導致我們超出這個範圍，無論是高還是低。雖然設想許多可能的情景相對容易，比如通脹加劇、深度衰退、地緣政治進一步動盪或商品成本回歸、通脹緩解、和平解決衝突，但很難為任何單一情景分配概率。因此，我們根據我們今天看到的市場情況設定了我們認為最有可能的範圍。

We expect adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90% for the year. This includes a step-up in capital spending as we begin to add capacity in several categories. We expect to pay more than $9 billion in dividends and to repurchase $6 billion to $8 billion of common stock. Combined, a plan to return $15 billion to $17 billion of cash to shareowners this fiscal year. This outlook is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major supply chain disruptions or store closures are not anticipated within this guidance range.

我們預計今年調整後的自由現金流生產率為 90%。這包括隨著我們開始在幾個類別中增加產能而增加資本支出。我們預計將支付超過 90 億美元的股息，並回購 60 億至 80 億美元的普通股。加起來，計劃在本財年向股東返還 150 億至 170 億美元現金。該展望基於當前市場增長率估計、商品價格和外匯匯率。預計不會在此指導範圍內出現明顯的額外貨幣疲軟、商品成本增加、地緣政治中斷、主要供應鏈中斷或商店關閉。

Now I'll hand it back to Jon for his closing thoughts.

現在我將把它交還給喬恩，讓他總結一下。

The macroeconomic and market-level consumer challenges we're facing are not unique to P&G, and we won't be immune to the impacts. We've attempted to be realistic about these impacts in our guidance and transparent in our commentary. As we've said before, we believe this is a rough patch to grow through, not a reason to reduce investment in the long-term health of the business. We're doubling down on the strategy that has been working well and delivering strong results.

我們面臨的宏觀經濟和市場層面的消費者挑戰並非寶潔獨有，我們也無法倖免於這些影響。我們試圖在我們的指導中對這些影響保持現實，並在我們的評論中保持透明。正如我們之前所說，我們認為這是一個艱難的成長階段，而不是減少對業務長期健康的投資的理由。我們正在加倍努力實施一直運作良好並取得強勁成果的戰略。

We'll continue to step forward toward our opportunities and remain fully invested in our business. We remain committed to driving productivity improvements to fund growth investments, mitigate input cost challenges and to maintain balanced top and bottom line growth.

我們將繼續朝著我們的機會邁進，並繼續對我們的業務進行全面投資。我們仍然致力於推動生產力的提高，為增長投資提供資金，緩解投入成本挑戰，並保持平衡的收入和利潤增長。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) First question comes from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

I just had a couple of clarification questions related to the guidance. And I guess the first one is -- just want to make sure I'm looking at this correctly. If I look at the implied step-up in the tax rate and then the share repurchases, they sort of offset each other. So seems like the underlying guide assumes that profit growth will equal whatever revenue growth is. Just want to make sure I'm understanding that correctly.

我剛剛有幾個與指南相關的澄清問題。我想第一個是——只是想確保我正確地看待這個問題。如果我看一下隱含的稅率提高，然後是股票回購，它們會相互抵消。因此，基本指南似乎假設利潤增長將等於收入增長。只是想確保我理解正確。

Yes. Our core EPS guidance, as I said, in the range of flat to plus 4% with a tax rate slightly higher than what we've seen in the previous fiscal year. This is driven by geographic mix changes, and it's also driven by reduced benefit from stock option redemption. From an operating profit standpoint, you're in the right ballpark. And I would leave it at that.

是的。正如我所說，我們的核心每股收益指引在持平至 4% 的範圍內，稅率略高於我們在上一財年看到的水平。這是由地域組合變化驅動的，也是由於股票期權贖回收益減少所致。從營業利潤的角度來看，您是在正確的範圍內。我會把它留在那裡。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

You both spoke a number of times, I think Jon reinforced it at the end of the prepared remarks, about the need to drive continued cost and cash productivity. As I reflect on fiscal '22, I think it's fair to say that the expense productivity was an area that came in a bit light of going in expectations, at least external expectations.

你們都說了很多次，我認為喬恩在準備好的評論結束時強調了提高持續成本和現金生產力的必要性。當我回顧 '22 財年時，我認為可以公平地說，費用生產率是一個有點符合預期的領域，至少是外部預期。

As you turn the page to fiscal '23, and maybe this is embedded in the answer to help drive that operating profit growth you just talked about, Andre, what's your confidence, your line of sight to be able to accelerate productivity in the year ahead? That's my main question. If you could also comment on just the -- mix has been a very material driver of margin for a while now. And I'm just curious to see your base case of how mix impacts your margin outlook in '23 as well.

當您翻到 23 財年時，也許這已嵌入答案中，以幫助推動您剛才談到的營業利潤增長，安德烈，您有什麼信心，您的視線能夠在未來一年加速生產力?這是我的主要問題。如果您還可以評論一下-- 混合在一段時間內一直是利潤率的一個非常重要的驅動因素。我很好奇你的基本情況是混合如何影響你在 23 年的利潤率前景。

On productivity, you're right, it has to be a significant contributor to how we offset the inflationary cost impacts and enable reinvestment in the business in combination with pricing and innovation, as we said before. In fiscal '22, maybe let's go by area. From a cost of goods productivity standpoint, we've talked about us prioritizing production of cases to ship them and innovation as we were capacity-constrained. That has limited our ability to get cost savings qualified and through the P&L.

在生產力方面，您是對的，正如我們之前所說，它必須是我們如何抵消通脹成本影響並結合定價和創新對業務進行再投資的重要貢獻者。在 22 財年，也許讓我們按地區來吧。從商品生產力成本的角度來看，我們已經談到我們優先考慮生產箱子以運送箱子和創新，因為我們的能力有限。這限制了我們通過損益表獲得成本節約的能力。

That is changing in this current fiscal year. As the capacity situation eases, as we add more capacity and catch up with demand, we are able to get more cost savings qualified, catch up on some of the cost savings we delayed in fiscal '22. So we are expecting growth savings in the COGS area to get back to pre-COVID levels in this fiscal year.

在本財年，這種情況正在發生變化。隨著產能情況的緩解，隨著我們增加更多產能並滿足需求，我們能夠獲得更多合格的成本節約，趕上我們在 22 財年延遲的一些成本節約。因此，我們預計 COGS 領域的增長節省將在本財年恢復到 COVID 之前的水平。

We are very confident in our teams. They are -- have an unlimited number of creative ideas to drive further productivity. That still obviously is needed to offset inflation, which is equally strong in the fiscal year.

我們對我們的團隊非常有信心。他們是——擁有無限數量的創意來推動更高的生產力。顯然，這仍然需要抵消通脹，這在本財年同樣強勁。

From a media standpoint, we have delivered significant productivity over the past years, but we have reinvested all of that productivity and incremental media spend ahead of sales leverage, ahead of the productivity numbers even that we generated. And that productivity continues to strengthen. We have developed strong capability to target better both on TV as well as in digital. Our ability to improve effectiveness of reach and quality of reach is allowing us to drive cost per effective reach down both in digital and in TV. We've shifted more and more spend into digital. Now more than 50% of our advertising is in digital.

從媒體的角度來看，我們在過去幾年中實現了顯著的生產力，但我們將所有生產力和增加的媒體支出再投資於銷售槓桿之前，甚至超過了我們產生的生產力數字。而且這種生產力繼續增強。我們已經開發出強大的能力，可以更好地在電視和數字領域進行定位。我們提高覆蓋效果和覆蓋質量的能力使我們能夠在數字和電視中降低每次有效覆蓋的成本。我們已經將越來越多的支出轉移到數字領域。現在，我們 50% 以上的廣告都是數字廣告。

And with that, we are rolling out these capabilities to more and more businesses and more and more regions. That allows us to increase productivity on media spend in the current fiscal year to the point where we believe we will use some of that productivity not to reinvest fully but to actually flow through and help offset inflation. And some of that you saw in Q4 combined with other effects.

因此，我們正在將這些功能推廣到越來越多的企業和越來越多的地區。這使我們能夠在本財年提高媒體支出的生產力，以至於我們相信我們將利用其中的一部分生產力而不是完全再投資，而是實際流動並幫助抵消通貨膨脹。您在第四季度看到的其中一些與其他影響相結合。

General sales leverage and productivity on SG&A driven by sales leverage is well intact. You saw it flow through in quarter 4. That was 180 basis points helped to operating margin, and that should continue.

由銷售槓桿驅動的一般銷售槓桿和 SG&A 的生產力完好無損。你看到它在第 4 季度流動。那是 180 個基點有助於提高營業利潤率，而且應該會繼續下去。

So in summary, I feel good about our productivity muscle. It continues to strengthen, and it will be needed to help offset some of the inflationary pressures we see.

總而言之，我對我們的生產力肌肉感覺良好。它繼續加強，將需要幫助抵消我們看到的一些通脹壓力。

On product mix, we continue to see the same effect that we've seen in previous quarters, which is a negative impact to gross margin, roughly 130 basis points on the quarter, positive impact when you think about our portfolio. What we see is that consumers that come into the P&G portfolio, and we had big success in driving trial over the past 2 years, those consumers, if they try P&G products, they tend to trade up. And that trade-up comes with increased unit sales. It comes with increased penny profit, but the gross margin is slightly dilutive.

在產品組合方面，我們繼續看到與前幾個季度相同的影響，這對毛利率產生負面影響，本季度約為 130 個基點，當您考慮我們的投資組合時，會產生積極影響。我們看到的是，進入寶潔產品組合的消費者，我們在過去 2 年的試用中取得了巨大成功，這些消費者如果嘗試了寶潔產品，他們往往會進行交易。這種交易伴隨著單位銷量的增加。它帶來了便士利潤的增加，但毛利率略有稀釋。

The example we use generally is Tide pods, about a 50% premium in unit sales versus liquid detergent per load, significantly higher unit profit, but from a gross margin percentage standpoint, slightly lower. So that same effect continues, and we expect that trade-up, hopefully, to continue in this fiscal.

我們通常使用的例子是 Tide pods，單位銷售額與每次裝載的液體洗滌劑相比溢價約 50%，單位利潤顯著提高，但從毛利率百分比的角度來看，略低。因此，同樣的影響仍在繼續，我們希望這種交易能夠在本財年繼續下去。

Our next question from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

I just wanted to discuss your level of visibility on the 3% to 5% organic sales growth guidance for fiscal '23. Obviously, there's a lot that builds into that, but I was curious for your perspective in a couple of areas. First, just the competitive environment. What are you seeing in your categories with the strong 8% pricing this quarter? Are competitors generally matching pricing in your categories?

我只是想討論一下你對 23 財年 3% 到 5% 有機銷售增長指導的可見度。顯然，其中有很多內容，但我很好奇你在幾個領域的觀點。首先，只是競爭環境。在本季度 8% 的強勁定價下，您在您的類別中看到了什麼？競爭對手通常與您的類別中的價格相匹配嗎？

And then, b, you're only assuming modest P&G market share gains for fiscal '23 with the 3% to 5% corporate organic sales growth and 3% to 4% category growth. So can you discuss what's driving the moderation in P&G market share gains and how potential pickup in private label share might play into that and the fiscal Q4 results?

然後，b，你只是假設寶潔在 23 財年的市場份額適度增長，企業有機銷售增長 3% 到 5%，類別增長 3% 到 4%。那麼，您能否討論一下是什麼推動了寶潔市場份額增長的放緩，以及自有品牌份額的潛在回升可能如何影響這一點以及第四財季的業績？

Yes. Thanks, Dara. You're right. Our top line guidance is, as always, grounded in what we expect in the marketplace. We see moderation -- or we expect moderation in the overall value growth in the market from the 5% we had over the past 12 months back to 3% to 4%. And we expect pricing to be the main driver in that market growth with volumes slightly down. That is a logical consequence of the broad-based pricing that we are seeing in the market, assuming there will be elasticity. We've seen elasticity, albeit better than expected based on historical levels, but we're seeing elasticity in the market, and that's reflected in our market growth assumption.

是的。謝謝，達拉。你是對的。我們的一線指導一如既往地以我們對市場的期望為基礎。我們看到溫和——或者我們預計市場的整體價值增長將從過去 12 個月的 5% 回落到 3% 到 4%。我們預計定價將成為該市場增長的主要驅動力，銷量略有下降。這是我們在市場上看到的廣泛定價的邏輯結果，假設會有彈性。我們已經看到了彈性，儘管根據歷史水平好於預期，但我們看到了市場的彈性，這反映在我們的市場增長假設中。

We have full confidence in our ability to compete in this environment. Our categories being daily-use categories that consumers don't deselect even when they see high levels of inflation, our focus on Irresistible Superiority, our ability to make strong value claims based on that superiority, the breadth of our portfolio across the price letter and value tiers and across channels positions us well to compete in the environment. And most importantly, the strength in our innovation portfolio and the runway we have in driving household penetration and trade-up within the portfolio has us focused really on driving market growth. And that inherently drives share growth for us. That's part of our assumption to market size and relative share growth.

我們對自己在這種環境中的競爭能力充滿信心。我們的類別是消費者即使看到高通脹也不會取消選擇的日常使用類別，我們專注於不可抗拒的優勢，我們基於這種優勢提出強有力的價值主張的能力，我們在價格信中的產品組合的廣度和價值層級和跨渠道使我們能夠很好地在環境中競爭。最重要的是，我們在創新產品組合中的實力以及我們在推動家庭滲透和投資組合中的升級方面擁有的跑道讓我們真正專注於推動市場增長。這從本質上推動了我們的份額增長。這是我們對市場規模和相對份額增長假設的一部分。

As to the private label point, we see private label reemergence in some categories, mainly in the paper categories in some regions. Broadly, what I would tell you at this point, while we acknowledge private label coming back, partly due to supply dynamics in the base, we are still able to grow share in those markets where we see private label coming back. In the U.S. in the recent period, private label coming up a little bit in Family Care. But overall, we've been able to drive share growth on an all-outlet basis.

至於自有品牌點，我們看到自有品牌在一些品類重新出現，主要是在一些地區的紙品品類。總的來說，我現在要告訴你的是，雖然我們承認自有品牌回歸，部分原因是基地的供應動態，但我們仍然能夠在我們看到自有品牌回歸的那些市場中增加份額。在美國，最近一段時間，自有品牌在家庭護理領域出現了一點點。但總的來說，我們已經能夠在全渠道的基礎上推動份額增長。

In Europe, private label shares are stronger. Private labels are reemerging in some of the markets. But for example, in the U.K. and France and Germany, we all have positive share reads in the most recent period. So we're keeping a close eye on it.

在歐洲，自有品牌的份額更強。自有品牌在一些市場重新出現。但例如，在英國、法國和德國，我們在最近一段時間內都有積極的份額讀數。所以我們正在密切關注它。

But again, I want to bring it back to the strategy, the portfolio, the superiority, the innovation, and we believe we are well positioned and continue to be well positioned to serve the consumer in this environment.

但是，我想再次將其帶回戰略、投資組合、優勢、創新，我們相信我們處於有利地位，並將繼續處於有利地位，在這種環境下為消費者服務。

I just want to add one thing to that, agree with everything that Andre said. Both due to base period dynamics across ourselves and our competitive set and, as you said, there are due to many dynamics that are impacting both top and bottom line as we move forward, there will likely be more volatility in the numbers. There will be some bumps along the road. And you'll have to be careful how much you read into any 1-week or 4-week period. But we've got our eyes focused on a longer time period than that, and we'll be managing accordingly.

我只想補充一件事，同意安德烈所說的一切。由於我們自己和我們的競爭群體的基期動態，正如您所說，隨著我們前進，由於許多動態影響了頂線和底線，數字可能會出現更大的波動。路上會有一些顛簸。而且你必須小心在任何 1 週或 4 週的時間內閱讀了多少內容。但我們的注意力集中在比這更長的時間段上，我們將進行相應的管理。

We'll go to our next question from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

我們將回答來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman 的下一個問題。

Two things, I guess. First is notwithstanding, Jon, your comments just now on scanner -- implied on scanner data. In the U.S., the market share performance has changed course. It's down slightly. It looks like a mix of things in terms of competitor, supply perhaps coming back. But I was just curious if you could comment on U.S. market share performance in general, was number one.

我猜有兩件事。首先，Jon，您剛才對掃描儀的評論——隱含在掃描儀數據中。在美國，市場份額表現已經改變。略有下降。就競爭對手而言，它看起來像是混合的東西，供應可能會回來。但我只是好奇你是否可以評論美國市場份額的總體表現，排名第一。

And then number two was China, which I believe is 9% or 10% of your sales. Down 11% is significant. I know that you've signaled previously that China was challenged because of the COVID lockdowns, but it does seem like it's disproportionate rate of decline versus what others are talking about. So if you could just talk to us a little bit about why your performance in China looks to be different than what we're hearing from some other multinationals. If it's specific to market share, if it's specific to mechanics of your operations. Just curious on some insights there.

其次是中國，我相信它佔你們銷售額的 9% 或 10%。下降 11% 意義重大。我知道您之前曾表示，中國因 COVID 封鎖而受到挑戰，但與其他人所說的相比，它的下降速度似乎不成比例。所以，如果你能和我們談談為什麼你在中國的表現看起來與我們從其他一些跨國公司那裡聽到的不同。如果它特定於市場份額，如果它特定於您的運營機制。只是對那裡的一些見解感到好奇。

Let me just start in response to that question, Lauren, and then kick it over to Andre. We need to keep coming back to the strength of the top line. So in the U.S., for example, we grew 6% in the quarter, 8% over the course of the year. As you know, 7% total company, both on the year and the quarter. And that strength is broad-based. That's important. And we continue to protect -- project top line growth as well as modest share growth going forward.

讓我開始回答這個問題，勞倫，然後轉給安德烈。我們需要繼續回到頂線的實力。例如，在美國，我們在本季度增長了 6%，全年增長了 8%。如您所知，全年和季度的公司總數為 7%。而且這種優勢是廣泛的。這很重要。我們繼續保護 - 項目收入增長以及未來的適度份額增長。

I'll ask Andre to provide specific commentary on China.

我會請安德烈就中國問題發表具體評論。

Very good. Lauren, on the -- maybe I'll start quickly with the U.S. share, if you'll let me. You're right. If you look at the past 1 week and past 4 weeks, we see a kind of 10, 20 basis point decline. And that's -- as Jon said, there will be wobbles along the way. The base period is extremely volatile. If you look at absolute shares in the U.S., we're up over the last 52 weeks, last 13 weeks to the last 1 week, we continue to increase absolute shares.

很好。勞倫，如果你允許的話，也許我會很快從美國的份額開始。你是對的。如果您查看過去 1 周和 4 週，我們會看到 10、20 個基點的下跌。那就是 - 正如喬恩所說，一路上會有搖擺不定。基期極不穩定。如果你看一下美國的絕對份額，我們在過去 52 週、過去 13 周到最後 1 週都在上漲，我們繼續增加絕對份額。

If you look at the periods that you're reading at the moment, just to give a bit more color, the 2 businesses that are down over this period are Fabric Care and Family Care, just to give color on the period effects here and the wobbles. Fabric Care had an amazing run in the U.S., 11% up on the quarter, 12% up for the year and high teen -- low teens up over the past 2 years. And we haven't kept up with capacity and that came to a head in March. Just as we are installing and starting up new capacity, we were supply-constrained over the AMJ quarter. So we reduced merch investment, we reduced media investment because we just didn't have the cases.

如果您查看您目前正在閱讀的時期，只是為了提供更多色彩，在此期間下降的 2 家業務是織物護理和家庭護理，只是為了說明這裡的時期效應和搖晃。 Fabric Care 在美國的表現令人驚嘆，本季度增長 11%，全年增長 12%，並且在過去 2 年中增長了 12%。而且我們還沒有跟上產能，這在三月份達到了頂峰。正如我們正在安裝和啟動新產能一樣，我們在 AMJ 季度受到供應限制。所以我們減少了商品投資，我們減少了媒體投資，因為我們只是沒有案例。

That is fixed in July. We're back in full supply as we started up new capacity, merch was reinstated, media was reinstated. Family Care-based period, you know the situation in Family Care, supply has been very constrained. And again, you're reading mainly base period effects, not sequential share effects. All-outlet share in the U.S. continues to be up. So we feel very confident in our U.S. business overall.

這是在七月確定的。隨著新產能的啟動、商品的恢復、媒體的恢復，我們又恢復了全面供應。家庭護理為主的時期，你知道家庭護理的情況，供應一直很緊張。同樣，您主要閱讀的是基期效應，而不是順序份額效應。在美國的所有出口份額繼續上升。因此，我們對我們在美國的整體業務充滿信心。

China, you're right. We have been significantly impacted by the COVID lockdowns. The read for us across our category footprint and regional footprint in China is that the market contracted double digits over the quarter periods that we're reading, and that is reflected in the results. More importantly, since consumer mobility started to resume, the COVID lockdowns are easing, we're seeing a return to growth in our categories. Our shares are responding favorably. So we're hopeful that we return to mid-single-digit growth in China over the next few quarters. Certainly, the team on the ground is excited, capable and has everything ready to go, but we need to see that consumer mobility come back.

中國，你是對的。我們受到 COVID 封鎖的重大影響。對我們而言，我們在中國的類別足跡和區域足蹟的解讀是，市場在我們正在閱讀的季度期間收縮了兩位數，這反映在結果中。更重要的是，由於消費者流動性開始恢復，COVID 鎖定正在放鬆，我們看到我們的類別恢復增長。我們的股票反應良好。因此，我們希望在接下來的幾個季度中，中國能夠恢復到中個位數的增長。當然，當地的團隊很興奮，有能力，一切準備就緒，但我們需要看到消費者流動性回歸。

And Lauren, relative to your question on the relative share performance, where you happen to have manufacturing operations located has a big impact on your ability to supply the market. And we had -- we were pretty significantly impacted by the location of some of the shutdowns, namely Shanghai, where we have 2 manufacturing centers and an important contract manufacturer supply. So that's one of the reasons for some of the noise within the share comparison.

勞倫，相對於你關於相對股票表現的問題，你恰好在哪裡有製造業務，這對你供應市場的能力有很大影響。我們有 - 我們受到一些停工地點的顯著影響，即上海，我們在那裡有 2 個製造中心和一個重要的合同製造商供應。這就是股票比較中出現一些噪音的原因之一。

We'll go to our next question from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答 Jason English 和 Goldman Sachs 的下一個問題。

Two questions. I guess kind of coming back to some of the topics that have already been raised. First, I mean, on market growth assumptions, the anticipated deceleration, is this coming from an anticipation that consumers are going to use less so as the volume comes in, trade down so mix comes in? Or maybe we lap some pricing and bring some more promotions back so pricing comes in? Which of those 3 components do you expect to be the bigger driver of category to sell?

兩個問題。我想有點回到已經提出的一些話題。首先，我的意思是，根據市場增長假設，預期的減速，這是否來自於預期消費者將減少使用量以致銷量增加，交易減少以致混合進入？或者，也許我們會制定一些定價並帶來更多的促銷活動，以便定價？您預計這三個組件中的哪一個會成為銷售類別的更大推動力？

The -- it's a combination of what you described. As we said, pricing generally comes with a level of elasticity. Consumers don't leave the category, but they might look at their dosing behaviors. They might look a little bit closer at their inventories and draw that down over a period of time. Specifically, as they are more exposed to inflation broadly in the marketplace with the highest inflation in 40 years, it'd be naive to assume the consumer is not looking at their cash outlay and their spending even in our categories.

- 這是你所描述的組合。正如我們所說，定價通常具有一定程度的彈性。消費者不會離開該類別，但他們可能會查看自己的給藥行為。他們可能會更仔細地查看他們的庫存，並在一段時間內將其減少。具體來說，由於他們在 40 年來通脹率最高的市場上更容易受到廣泛的通脹影響，因此假設消費者甚至在我們的類別中都沒有關注他們的現金支出和支出是天真的。

Though we see the elasticities be more favorable than historical norms to date, we continue our assumption that they return to historical elasticities going forward. We hope that's not the case, but our assumption is that, that returns to what we've seen in the past.

儘管我們認為彈性比迄今為止的歷史規範更有利，但我們繼續假設它們將在未來恢復到歷史彈性。我們希望情況並非如此，但我們的假設是，這會回到我們過去看到的情況。

The other element I would point to is just normalization of consumption patterns. As we saw very elevated consumption growth over the last 2 years, some of that will, at a total market level, probably return to more normal levels. Our job within that is for our brands and our categories to drive the household penetration opportunities, which we have. They are huge even in the most developed markets, even in the most developed categories, and that's what we're going to focus on.

我要指出的另一個要素就是消費模式的正常化。由於我們看到過去兩年的消費增長非常高，其中一些在整個市場水平上可能會恢復到更正常的水平。我們的工作是讓我們的品牌和品類推動我們擁有的家庭滲透機會。即使在最發達的市場，甚至在最發達的類別中，它們也是巨大的，這就是我們要關注的內容。

We'll go to our next question from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起回答 Kevin Grundy 的下一個問題。

My question is on potential implications from the fallout with Walmart and your bigger retailers more broadly feeling margin pressure. From a category perspective, it's sort of well understood that the issues are more general merchandise and not consumer staples. But we have seen some ripple effects, right? They've announced freight fuel charges, which we have seen. So my question is really around any implications that you may be concerned about, whether more difficulty taking price, greater request for trade promotion. So any comments you have there in terms of what's going on with large retail customers would be helpful.

我的問題是與沃爾瑪的影響以及更大的零售商更廣泛地感受到利潤率壓力的潛在影響。從品類的角度來看，人們可以很好地理解，這些問題更多的是普通商品，而不是消費必需品。但是我們已經看到了一些連鎖反應，對吧？他們已經公佈了貨運燃料費，我們已經看到了。所以我的問題實際上是圍繞您可能關心的任何影響，是否更難以接受價格，是否需要更大的貿易促進。因此，您就大型零售客戶的情況發表的任何評論都會有所幫助。

Yes. Kevin, I'll start, and then Jon might want to add here. In general, we acknowledge -- as you said, Walmart indicated that the pressure they are seeing is in general merchandise and apparel. Our categories, when you think about the HPC categories broadly in Walmart and across all retailers in the U.S., really are still growing at a good clip. Our interests are generally aligned with retailers' interest as our job is to provide the best possible value to consumers as defined by price and performance of the product.

是的。凱文，我會開始，然後喬恩可能想在這裡添加。總的來說，我們承認——正如你所說，沃爾瑪表示他們看到的壓力來自一般商品和服裝。當您廣泛考慮沃爾瑪和美國所有零售商的 HPC 類別時，我們的類別確實仍在以良好的速度增長。我們的利益通常與零售商的利益一致，因為我們的工作是根據產品的價格和性能為消費者提供盡可能好的價值。

We both want to drive footfall to the store. We both want to drive traffic to the shelf. We both want to drive consumption of our propositions. In that sense, we continue to work constructively with Walmart and with all retailers to do that in the best possible way. Our strategy, grounded in the categories we play in, that are generally not categories that consumers deselect even in difficult times. Our superiority, our investment in innovation, our intention to drive category growth and to win with our retailers versus purely focusing on share growth, all of those are good things. In our mind, all of those are good things in the minds of retailers. The dialogue generally remains constructive but focused on providing the best possible value to the consumer.

我們都想把客流量吸引到商店。我們都想將流量推向貨架。我們都想推動我們的主張的消費。從這個意義上說，我們將繼續與沃爾瑪和所有零售商進行建設性合作，以盡可能最好的方式做到這一點。我們的策略基於我們所涉足的類別，即使在困難時期，這些類別通常也不會被消費者取消選擇。我們的優勢，我們對創新的投資，我們推動品類增長並與零售商共贏的意圖，而不是僅僅專注於份額增長，所有這些都是好事。在我們看來，所有這些都是零售商心目中的好東西。對話通常保持建設性，但側重於為消費者提供盡可能好的價值。

We'll go next to Rob Ottenstein with Evercore.

我們將與 Evercore 一起前往 Rob Ottenstein。

Was wondering if you could talk a little bit about your price increases in July, maybe give a sense of order of magnitude and breadth, early reception. And then assuming the sort of elasticities that you expect, how far can those increases go to offsetting the 3.2 -- or $3.3 billion of headwinds that you outlined earlier.

想知道您是否可以談談您在 7 月份的價格上漲，也許可以提供一個數量級和廣度的感覺，以及早期的接收。然後假設您所期望的那種彈性，這些增長可以在多大程度上抵消您之前概述的 3.2 或 33 億美元的逆風。

The increases we're taking, and we've announced in June, July, are going into effect broadly in this quarter, July, August, September, towards the latter half of it. They are across most categories in the U.S. And we also announced pricing globally in the same ballpark, mid-single digits, but very differentiated. So in general, I would tell you, mid-singles -- probably mid- to high singles, but really tailored by country, by brand, by SKU to ensure that we do what I just described retailers are looking for, provide the best value for their relevant shoppers in terms of absolute price point, product performance and value tier.

我們正在採取的加薪措施，我們已經在 6 月、7 月宣布，將在本季度（7 月、8 月、9 月）的下半季度廣泛生效。它們遍及美國的大多數類別。我們還宣布全球定價相同，中個位數，但差異很大。所以總的來說，我會告訴你，中單——可能是中高單，但真正按國家、按品牌、按 SKU 量身定制，以確保我們做我剛才描述的零售商正在尋找的東西，提供最佳價值為他們的相關購物者提供絕對價格點、產品性能和價值等級。

The reaction to those price increases from a retailer environment is what you would expect. Nobody is pleased about the continued inflationary trends that we're seeing, but it remains a constructive discussion on how to best execute what we need, both from a retailer standpoint and from a manufacturer standpoint, which is recovery of inflationary cost measures to the extent that cannot be covered by productivity.

零售商環境對這些價格上漲的反應是您所期望的。沒有人對我們看到的持續通脹趨勢感到高興，但它仍然是關於如何最好地執行我們需要的建設性討論，無論是從零售商的角度還是從製造商的角度，即在一定程度上恢復通脹成本措施這是生產力無法涵蓋的。

In terms of our ability to offset the latest inflationary trends across commodities and transportation, pricing is part of that. But the pricing we're taking is not covering the entire breadth of increases that we're seeing. That needs to be a combined effort between pricing, innovation and driving trade-up via innovation and productivity. But we feel good about every part of that equation. Our innovation portfolio is stronger than ever. Our productivity muscle is strong, and pricing dynamics and conversations remain productive.

就我們抵消商品和運輸領域最新通脹趨勢的能力而言，定價是其中的一部分。但我們採取的定價並沒有涵蓋我們所看到的整個增長幅度。這需要在定價、創新和通過創新和生產力推動交易之間共同努力。但我們對這個等式的每一部分都感覺良好。我們的創新組合比以往任何時候都更強大。我們的生產力力量強大，定價動態和對話仍然富有成效。

Just one additional point, Rob, the -- relative to the competitive environment. We're seeing price increases on private label brands and on mid-tier offerings that are even higher in some cases than our own price increases. I just offer that perspective as it relates to the ability to hold pricing and then -- and what it might mean for market share. As Andre said, it's a fairly constructive environment.

Rob，還有一點，相對於競爭環境而言。我們看到自有品牌和中端產品的價格上漲在某些情況下甚至高於我們自己的價格上漲。我只是提供這種觀點，因為它與保持定價的能力有關，然後——以及它對市場份額可能意味著什麼。正如安德烈所說，這是一個相當有建設性的環境。

Your next question comes from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala with Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

I'd like to talk a little bit more about the $1.33. It's such a substantial amount of money between commodities and FX and what's incorporated in there, particularly, whether it's forward purchasing agreements, hedges, any of those sorts of things. And I'm asking for, I guess, an obvious reason, which is commodity costs very recently have come down. And I'm sure you don't feel the benefit immediately, but how should -- if this is to continue, which is possible, how should we think about the impact that's going to have on the estimates you've given us so far?

我想多談談 1.33 美元。這是大宗商品和外匯之間的巨額資金，以及其中包含的內容，尤其是遠期購買協議、對沖，以及任何此類事情。我想，我要問一個明顯的原因，那就是商品成本最近下降了。而且我敢肯定你不會立即感受到好處，但是應該如何——如果這種情況繼續下去，這是可能的，我們應該如何考慮這將對你迄今為止給我們的估計產生的影響?

Yes. If you break it down, the $1.33, $2.1 billion of the $3.3 billion is driven by commodities, $900 million by FX and $300 million by transportation. On the commodity side -- so let me take each bucket here. On the commodity side, we've seen some of our commodities annualized, as you said, and maybe even decrease. But we've seen the majority of our commodity basket still increase week-over-week, month-over-month. So when you look at our overall commodity exposure, it is at this point in time stable to increasing. And our assumption going forward is at spot rates. So we assume stability within the commodity price environment versus current spot.

是的。如果將其分解，33 億美元中的 1.33 美元、21 億美元由商品驅動，9 億美元由外匯驅動，3 億美元由運輸驅動。在商品方面——讓我把每個桶都拿來這裡。在商品方面，正如您所說，我們已經看到我們的一些商品年化，甚至可能下降。但我們已經看到我們的大部分商品籃子仍然每週、每月都在增加。因此，當您查看我們的整體大宗商品風險敞口時，它在這個時間點上穩定增長。我們未來的假設是即期匯率。因此，我們假設商品價格環境相對於當前現貨價格保持穩定。

We do not hedge our commodities. We are counting on our offsets within our total exposure between commodity FX and interest rates. So spot is the assumption we are using. And we still see slight increases week-over-week, month-over-month, certainly not to the tune that we saw at the beginning of '22.

我們不對沖我們的商品。我們指望我們在商品外彙和利率之間的總敞口中的抵消。所以現貨是我們正在使用的假設。而且我們仍然看到每週、每月都有輕微的增長，當然不會像我們在 22 年初看到的那樣。

On the foreign exchange rate, that is the fastest-increasing headwind, also a big headwind in quarter 4 that we had to overcome. The interest rate differentials keep widening versus the U.S. So we anticipate that headwind could further expand. But our forecast is based on current spot rate, so same methodology as on commodities.

在匯率方面，這是增長最快的逆風，也是第四季度我們必須克服的一大逆風。與美國的利差繼續擴大，因此我們預計逆風可能會進一步擴大。但我們的預測是基於當前的即期匯率，因此方法與商品相同。

Transportation is a rollover versus the average price that we have paid in '21, '22. We see a little bit of easing here on the rate side. If you look at the load-to-driver ratio in the U.S., for example, that's down from a peak of 12 to now 4, which is more normalized. And some of the spot rates are coming down. That hasn't rolled over into contract rates at this point in time. If that happens, that could be a tailwind.

與我們在 21 和 22 年支付的平均價格相比，運輸是一個翻轉。我們在利率方面看到了一些緩和。例如，如果你看一下美國的負載與駕駛員比率，它從峰值 12 下降到現在的 4，這更加正常化。一些即期匯率正在下降。目前，這還沒有計入合同費率。如果發生這種情況，那可能是順風。

Ocean freight, you see the number of ships waiting to get unloaded is decreasing, so that's normalizing. What I'll offer as the offset obviously is energy prices, fuel prices. So this one might offer some relief. But again, so far, we see this offset by fuel cost.

海運，你看到等待卸貨的船隻數量正在減少，所以這是正常化的。我將提供的抵消顯然是能源價格，燃料價格。所以這個可能會提供一些緩解。但同樣，到目前為止，我們看到這被燃料成本所抵消。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Chris Carey。

So you noted that trade promotion was expected to be about $300 million after tax. I think you're referring to promotional spending, which is not an item, I think, typically, you call out specifically. So it does seem like you're indicating a more intentional desire to pick up promotional spending in order to help the consumer weather some of these cost increases. Is that a fair characterization? And then obviously, your price increases across much of your portfolio ahead. But are there specific categories or geographies where you specifically intend to lean in or where you think the consumer or the retailers need the most help?

所以你注意到貿易促進稅後預計約為 3 億美元。我認為您指的是促銷支出，這不是一個項目，我認為通常您會特別指出。因此，您似乎確實表示有意增加促銷支出，以幫助消費者經受住其中一些成本增加。這是一個公平的表徵嗎？然後很明顯，你的大部分投資組合的價格都會上漲。但是，是否有您特別打算涉足的特定類別或地區，或者您認為消費者或零售商最需要幫助的領域？

On the promo side, I'm not sure we intended to mention any number. But let me describe where we are. But John Chevalier can certainly clarify afterwards, if that question remains open. Our promotion strategy remains the same. If you look at promotion levels, they are relatively stable. I take the U.S. as the market where we have the best visibility and you have the best visibility. We're running at about 27% of merch, so that's volume sold on deal, and depth combined. That compares to a pre-COVID level slightly above 30% to a COVID low at 16%. But that 27% has been relatively stable over the past few quarters. So there's no significant increase in what we're observing.

在促銷方面，我不確定我們是否打算提及任何數字。但讓我描述一下我們在哪裡。但如果這個問題仍然懸而未決，John Chevalier 肯定可以事後澄清。我們的推廣策略保持不變。如果你看晉升水平，它們是相對穩定的。我認為美國是我們知名度最高的市場，而你的知名度最高。我們以大約 27% 的商品運行，所以這是成交量和深度的總和。相比之下，COVID 之前的水平略高於 30%，而 COVID 的低點為 16%。但在過去幾個季度中，這 27% 的比例相對穩定。所以我們觀察到的並沒有顯著增加。

We are not planning to increase significantly. But that, again, is a very tactical decision that is being made at the market level at the category level. But our intention to win is via innovation via clarity of value offer, via our superiority, not via price promotion.

我們不打算大幅增加。但這又是一個非常戰術性的決定，是在市場層面在品類層面做出的。但我們獲勝的意圖是通過清晰的價值提供、通過我們的優勢來實現創新，而不是通過價格促銷。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

So my question is on RGM. I guess I'm [not seeing] if you're proactively or more reactively introducing new price points, perhaps Tide simply pulling some of these levers to help the consumer or if you're seeing basically the retailers, your customers requesting more of that help or that's too early to say. And if you can walk through what has happened with Beauty in China on new exits of the quarter. I guess that's one area that you could potentially see improvement there. If you can help us kind of like bridge that gap.

所以我的問題是關於 RGM。我想我[沒有看到]您是否主動或更被動地引入新的價格點，也許 Tide 只是拉動其中一些槓桿來幫助消費者，或者如果您基本上看到的是零售商，您的客戶要求更多幫助或現在說還為時過早。如果你能了解一下 Beauty in China 在本季度的新出口上發生了什麼。我想這是你可能會在那裡看到改進的一個領域。如果你能幫助我們彌合這個差距。

Yes. On revenue growth management, that has been a priority for us, not only in the recent quarter but really over the past 2 to 3 years. So what we're benefiting from now was very intentional design of our revenue growth strategies over that period of time, including portfolio choices to have brand offerings available that cover different value tiers.

是的。在收入增長管理方面，這一直是我們的首要任務，不僅在最近一個季度，而且在過去 2 到 3 年都是如此。因此，我們現在從中受益的是在這段時間內非常有意識地設計了我們的收入增長戰略，包括投資組合選擇，以提供涵蓋不同價值層的品牌產品。

When you think about diapers, for example, we have the premium-tier Pampers Pure at $0.38 per diaper, Swaddlers at about $0.35 a diaper, Baby Dry at $0.30 and Luvs at $0.20 a diaper. So that's one example. And this exists across really all brands. And we've been very intentional in building our presence in these different value tiers in the market, so we can serve consumers with different preferences between performance and price.

例如，當您想到尿佈時，我們有優質的幫寶適 Pure，每片 0.38 美元，Swaddlers 每片約 0.35 美元，Baby Dry 為 0.30 美元，Luvs 為每片 0.20 美元。這就是一個例子。這確實存在於所有品牌中。我們一直非常有意識地在市場上這些不同價值層級建立我們的影響力，因此我們可以為在性能和價格方面具有不同偏好的消費者提供服務。

We have also spent a lot of time and design effort in creating the right price points. And those price points relevant on everyday price but also providing the right merch price points for different channels. So that's work that's been going on in every category.

我們還花費了大量時間和設計精力來創建合適的價格點。這些價格點與日常價格相關，但也為不同渠道提供正確的商品價格點。這就是每個類別都在進行的工作。

And then lastly, we've expanded our distribution across channels that consumers would go to in a more value-driven environment, think about hard discounters or dollar channel, to ensure that we have strong relationships with our retail partners there, strong distribution and offerings.

最後，我們擴大了我們的分銷渠道，讓消費者在更受價值驅動的環境中進入，考慮硬折扣店或美元渠道，以確保我們與那裡的零售合作夥伴建立牢固的關係、強大的分銷和產品.

So that work, yes, is indeed very important, but it has been ongoing over a longer period of time. As we take pricing, we ensure that we protect that strategy very carefully. And that's why pricing is so differentiated between markets, brands, channels as we execute.

所以這項工作，是的，確實非常重要，但它已經持續了更長的時間。在我們定價時，我們確保我們非常謹慎地保護該策略。這就是我們執行時定價在市場、品牌、渠道之間如此差異化的原因。

On Beauty China, what I'll tell you is that we remain very confident that the Chinese market offers very attractive growth rates and very attractive value-creation opportunities for us. As mobility returns, as department stores reopen, as we develop stronger capability in digital channels, as we refocus our business on the core brand equities, we see progress. The progress is still relatively slow because mobility is only just reopening. But we remain very confident that, that business offers a lot of opportunity, and we are well positioned with our brands to play.

關於 Beauty China，我要告訴你的是，我們仍然非常有信心，中國市場為我們提供了非常有吸引力的增長率和非常有吸引力的價值創造機會。隨著移動性的回歸，隨著百貨商店的重新開業，隨著我們在數字渠道中發展更強大的能力，隨著我們將業務重心重新集中在核心品牌資產上，我們看到了進步。進展仍然相對緩慢，因為流動性才剛剛重新開放。但我們仍然非常有信心，這項業務提供了很多機會，我們在品牌方面處於有利地位。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell with Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

Jon, this may be a little bit of a softball question, but I think we've run out of ways to ask about pricing in the consumer. But in your prepared remarks and then also I heard you on CNBC this morning say, "P&G is the best organization in the world." And I'm struck by that. In the 15 years I've known you, you've never been a cheerleader or someone to throw out superlatives. And coming on a quarter when technically, stock is down and you've missed, just why you feel that way now? Is the kind of turnaround or the catching of breath complete? You seem to want to get that message out there. So just anything more color you could give would be interesting and helpful.

喬恩，這可能有點像壘球問題，但我認為我們已經沒有辦法詢問消費者的定價了。但是在你準備好的講話中，然後我今天早上在 CNBC 上聽到你說，“寶潔是世界上最好的組織。”我對此感到震驚。在我認識你的 15 年裡，你從來沒有當過啦啦隊隊長，也從來沒有做過最高級的人。從技術上講，當股票下跌而你錯過了一個季度時，為什麼你現在有這種感覺？那種轉身或喘息是否完整？你似乎想把那個消息傳出去。因此，您可以提供的任何更多顏色都會很有趣且很有幫助。

There's clearly a desire to recognize extraordinary effort and results on the part of our organization broadly defined. The challenges that have been overcome while maintaining or improving service to consumers, customer and delivering both strong top and bottom line results, that's just not an accident. And we've been trying to become even more intentional about the importance of our organization, of our employee value proposition and delivering and sustaining superiority over time. So it's just, Bill, a reflection of that reality and my confidence in this organization to continue to step up and step forward into the challenges we face and continue to deliver strong progress from a business standpoint.

顯然，我們希望認可我們廣泛定義的組織的非凡努力和成果。在維持或改善對消費者、客戶的服務並提供強勁的頂線和底線結果的同時克服了挑戰，這絕非偶然。我們一直在努力更加關注我們組織的重要性、我們的員工價值主張以及隨著時間的推移提供和保持優勢。因此，比爾，這反映了這一現實以及我對這個組織的信心，將繼續加強並迎接我們面臨的挑戰，並從業務角度繼續取得強勁進展。

Next question comes from the line of Olivia Tong with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Olivia Tong 和 Raymond James 的台詞。

I'll be quick, but just 2 quick questions. First, are there more price actions planned versus what's already been announced? Is there anything being contemplated? Or everything that's been announced has been announced? And then secondly, just if you could give some color on your innovation pipeline and how it skews this year versus previous years potentially. Is there more premium versus more value and how you think about it in terms of contribution to price and mix?

我會很快，但只有 2 個快速問題。首先，與已經宣布的相比，是否計劃採取更多的價格行動？有什麼正在考慮的嗎？還是宣布的一切都已宣布？其次，如果您可以為您的創新管道以及今年與往年可能發生的偏差提供一些顏色。溢價與價值是否更高？您如何看待它對價格和組合的貢獻？

On pricing, my answer is going to be quick. What's announced is announced, and everything else we can't talk about. But it's going to be a combination of pricing, productivity and innovation. That's as much as I can tell you. And we're always evaluating pricing and the necessity for pricing in every market every day. So that's an ongoing discussion.

關於定價，我的回答會很快。宣布的內容已經公佈，其他我們不能談論的事情。但這將是定價、生產力和創新的結合。我能告訴你的就這麼多。我們每天都在評估每個市場的定價和定價的必要性。所以這是一個持續的討論。

In terms of innovation, fundamentally, our innovation pipeline looks out 5 years, 10 years. The innovation pipeline continues to be strong. It continues to drive superiority across the full portfolio because that's the definition of superiority. It's not just the premium end, and that doesn't really change.

在創新方面，從根本上說，我們的創新渠道是 5 年、10 年。創新渠道繼續強勁。它繼續推動整個產品組合的優勢，因為這就是優勢的定義。這不僅僅是高端產品，這並沒有真正改變。

So when we talk Irresistible Superiority, we mean Irresistible Superiority at every price point for every product, for every consumer that we choose to compete for versus the relevant competitive offering. And that drives the innovation strategy and the strength of the innovation. I see it only improving and being broad-based.

因此，當我們談論不可抗拒的優勢時，我們的意思是在每個產品的每個價格點上，對於我們選擇競爭的每個消費者與相關的競爭產品相比，都具有不可抗拒的優勢。這推動了創新戰略和創新的力量。我認為它只會有所改進並具有廣泛的基礎。

Your final question comes from the line of Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

您的最後一個問題來自 Mark Astrachan 和 Stifel。

One question and just a clarification or a reminder. How -- can you help us on just the leverage that you get from an SG&A standpoint given the volumes that we've seen over the last couple of years and then put that in the context of the slight volume decline in the June quarter just as a reminder there? That would be helpful.

一個問題，只是一個澄清或提醒。鑑於我們在過去幾年中看到的交易量，您能否僅從 SG&A 的角度為我們提供幫助，然後將其放在 6 月季度交易量小幅下降的背景下，就像有提醒嗎？那會很有幫助。

And then more broadly, how do you think about the ability to sustainably invest given the exchange rates? And specifically, I'm talking about obviously dollar strength versus a lot of other currencies, especially given some of your overseas current -- overseas competitors who don't obviously have the translational impact. So how does that influence, if it does, your ability to sustainably invest and maintain those levels of investment going forward if the dollar remains where it is?

然後更廣泛地說，考慮到匯率，您如何看待可持續投資的能力？具體來說，我指的是美元相對於許多其他貨幣明顯走強，特別是考慮到你的一些海外流通——海外競爭對手顯然沒有轉化影響。那麼，如果美元保持原狀，這將如何影響（如果確實如此）您可持續投資和維持這些投資水平的能力？

Thanks, Mark. On SG&A leverage, so from a -- let me maybe start with the broader leverage point. So we generally see sales leverage when we see growth in the range of 3% to 4%, roughly. When we go north of 4%, the leverage becomes relevant and material. That's SG&A leverage. So if we grow in line with our guidance range, that will provide a level of sales leverage similar to what we would typically and historically have expected.

謝謝，馬克。關於 SG&A 槓桿，讓我從更廣泛的槓桿點開始。因此，當我們看到大約 3% 到 4% 的增長時，我們通常會看到銷售槓桿。當我們超過 4% 時，槓桿就變得相關且重要。這就是 SG&A 的槓桿作用。因此，如果我們按照我們的指導範圍增長，那將提供與我們通常和歷史預期相似的銷售槓桿水平。

On the COGS side, you're right, the volume is the key driver for the leverage. With flat volumes, as we've seen in the fourth quarter, there obviously is no leverage. But that's where our productivity efforts are even more important. And that's why we're doubling down on our acceleration of productivity improvements. We'll talk about this more, I think, in our Investor Day, where we'll give you a bit more insight on supply chain 3.0, just to put more substance around the runway that we still have in driving productivity.

在 COGS 方面，您是對的，交易量是槓桿的關鍵驅動因素。正如我們在第四季度看到的那樣，交易量持平，顯然沒有槓桿作用。但這就是我們的生產力努力更加重要的地方。這就是我們加倍努力提高生產力的原因。我想，我們會在投資者日更多地討論這個問題，屆時我們將為您提供有關供應鏈 3.0 的更多見解，以便在我們在提高生產力方面仍然擁有的跑道上提供更多的實質內容。

That also is the answer to your second question because you're right, foreign exchange rate represents a significant headwind for us. It might not represent that much of a headwind for some of our international competitors. We're well aware of that. We've been to this movie a few times. The answer to our question is strong growth, serving the consumer better than everybody else, delivering top line growth. That fuels our ability to invest in combination with strong productivity. So it reinforces our growth model. It reinforces the need for all components of the strategy to work. But I acknowledge foreign exchange rate is one of the more discriminating headwinds we have to deal with.

這也是你第二個問題的答案，因為你是對的，外匯匯率對我們來說是一個重大的逆風。對於我們的一些國際競爭對手來說，這可能並不代表那麼大的逆風。我們很清楚這一點。這部電影我們去過幾次。我們的問題的答案是強勁的增長，比其他人更好地為消費者服務，實現收入增長。這增強了我們的投資能力以及強大的生產力。因此，它強化了我們的增長模式。它強調了戰略的所有組成部分都發揮作用的必要性。但我承認，匯率是我們必須應對的更具歧視性的不利因素之一。

Great. Thanks for joining us this morning. Just one item to note before we sign off. We will be hosting an Investor Day here in Cincinnati on the afternoon and evening of Thursday, November 17. We'll be sending out another save-the-date reminder in the next week. But if you like more details, please get in touch with the IR team. Thanks and have a great day and weekend.

偉大的。感謝您今天早上加入我們。在我們簽字之前只需要注意一項。我們將於 11 月 17 日星期四下午和晚上在辛辛那提舉辦投資者日活動。我們將在下週發出另一個保存日期的提醒。但如果您想了解更多詳情，請與 IR 團隊聯繫。謝謝，祝您度過愉快的一天和周末。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。