寶潔 (PG) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Procter & Gamble's Quarter end conference call.

早安，歡迎參加寶潔公司季度末電話會議。

Today's event is being recorded for replay.

今天的事件正在錄製以供重播。

This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements.

這次討論將包括一些前瞻性陳述。

If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections.

如果您參考寶潔公司最新的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告，您將看到可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測有重大差異的因素的討論。

As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures.

根據 G 條例的要求，寶潔公司需要讓您意識到，在討論過程中，公司將多次提及非 GAAP 和其他財務指標。

Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

寶潔公司認為，這些指標為投資者提供了有關基本業務趨勢的有用視角，並在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了非 GAAP 財務指標的全面對帳。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre.

現在我將把電話轉給寶潔公司的財務長安德烈。

Good morning.

早安.

Joining me on the call today are Jon Moeller, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer and John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席、總裁兼執行長 Jon Moeller 和投資者關係高級副總裁 John Chevalier。

I'll start with an overview of second quarter results.

我將首先概述第二季的業績。

Jon will add perspective on our results and strategy and we'll close with guidance for fiscal '25 and then take your questions.

Jon 將補充對我們的業績和策略的看法，我們將以 25 財年的指導作為結束，然後回答您的問題。

Second quarter results were largely aligned with our going in expectations despite a high degree of volatility within the quarter.

儘管第二季的業績波動很大，但第二季的業績基本上符合我們的預期。

Ultimately acceleration in organic sales growth, EPS growth, strong cash return to shareowners.

最終加速有機銷售成長、每股盈餘成長，為股東帶來強勁的現金回報。

Organic sales for the quarter grew 3%, volume contributed 2 points to organic sales growth mix at 1 point and pricing was roughly in line with prior year.

本季有機銷售額成長 3%，銷售量對有機銷售成長組合貢獻 2 個百分點，其中 1 個百分點，定價與去年大致一致。

The top line results were better than anticipated in early December, our team was able to fully overcome the two-week outage of our global transportation management system provider and support strong late December customer orders ahead of early January merchandizing events.

12 月初的營收結果優於預期，我們的團隊能夠完全克服全球運輸管理系統供應商為期兩週的停機問題，並在 1 月初的促銷活動之前支援 12 月底的強勁客戶訂單。

Growth was broad based across categories with of 10 product categories growing organic sales for the quarter.

各類別均實現廣泛成長，本季有 10 個產品類別的有機銷售額出現成長。

Family care was up double digits, home care and skin and personal care were up mid single, personal health care, hair care, oral care, feminine care, fabric care and grooming grew low single digits, baby care was down low singles.

家庭護理增長了兩位數，家庭護理、皮膚和個人護理增長了中位數，個人保健、頭髮護理、口腔護理、女性護理、織物護理和美容增長了低個位數，嬰兒護理下降了低個位數。

Organic sales in focused markets grew 4% and enterprise markets were in line with prior year.

重點市場的有機銷售額成長了 4%，企業市場與去年持平。

Organic sales in North America grew 4% driven by 4 points of volume growth.

在銷量成長 4 個百分點的推動下，北美的有機銷售額成長了 4%。

Over the last six quarters, North America has grown organic sales 7%, 5%,3%, 4%, 4% and now again, 4%, on volume growth of 3% to 4% each quarter.

在過去的六個季度中，北美地區的有機銷售額成長了7%、5%、3%、4%、4%，現在又成長了4%，每季的銷量成長為3% 至4% 。

The region delivered broad based market share growth this quarter with 8 of 10 categories holding or growing volume share and 8 of 10 categories holding or growing value share.

本季度該地區的市場份額實現了廣泛的增長，10 個類別中有 8 個類別保持或增長了銷量份額，10 個類別中有 8 個類別保持或增長了價值份額。

Europe focused markets organic sales were up 4% driven by 4 points of volume growth.

在銷售成長 4 個百分點的推動下，以歐洲為重點的市場有機銷售額成長了 4%。

Over the last six quarters, Europe focused markets have grown organic sales on average 6% on volume growth of 3%.

在過去的六個季度中，以歐洲為重點的市場的有機銷售額平均成長了 6%，銷量成長了 3%。

Latin America and European enterprise markets each grew low single digits, and the Asia, Middle East and Africa region declined low singles.

拉丁美洲和歐洲企業市場均出現低個位數成長，亞洲、中東和非洲地區則出現低個位數下降。

Greater China organic sales declined 3%.

大中華區有機銷售額下降 3%。

While down versus prior year, this is a solid step forward in our second largest market from a 15% decline last quarter.

雖然與去年相比有所下降，但我們的第二大市場比上季下降 15% 向前邁出了堅實的一步。

Notably, SK-II in greater China grew 5% with strong growth during the 11/11 key consumption period and modest growth in travel retail.

值得注意的是，SK-II大中華區成長5%，其中11/11消費關鍵期強勁成長，旅遊零售溫和成長。

Underlying market conditions remain soft and we are trending back to our growth in greater China.

基本市場狀況依然疲軟，我們正在回歸大中華區的成長趨勢。

Global aggregate value share was in line with prior year with 28 of our Top 50 category country combinations holding or growing share for the quarter.

全球總價值份額與上年持平，本季排名前 50 名的國家組合中有 28 個持有或不斷增長份額。

On the bottom line, core earnings per share were $1.88, up 2% versus prior year; on a currency neutral basis, core EPS increased 3%.

每股核心獲利為 1.88 美元，較上年成長 2%；在貨幣中性的基礎上，核心每股盈餘成長了 3%。

The quarter included roughly $0.02 per share of incremental cost to manage through the transportation services disruption, almost entirely in cost of goods sold.

該季度包括約每股 0.02 美元的增量成本，用於管理運輸服務中斷，幾乎全部計入銷售成本。

Core gross margin was down 30 basis points and core operating margin declined 80 basis points.

核心毛利率下降 30 個基點，核心營業利益率下降 80 個基點。

Currency neutral core operating margin decreased 50 basis points.

貨幣中性核心營業利潤率下降 50 個基點。

The quarter included a strong productivity improvement of 260 basis points.

本季生產力大幅提高 260 個基點。

Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 84%.

調整後自由現金流生產力為 84%。

We returned over $4.9 billion of cash to share owners this quarter, $2.4 billion in dividends and $2.5 billion in share repurchase.

本季我們向股東返還了超過 49 億美元的現金、24 億美元的股利和 25 億美元的股票回購。

To summarize results, accelerating organic sales growth, solid core EPS growth and cash return to shareowners keeping us on track to deliver within our fiscal year guidance ranges.

總結結果，加速有機銷售成長、穩定的核心每股盈餘成長和股東現金回報使我們能夠在財政年度指導範圍內實現目標。

Overall good performance in what continues to be a challenging economic and geopolitical environment.

在仍充滿挑戰的經濟和地緣政治環境中，整體表現良好。

Over to Jon.

交給喬恩。

Thanks, Andre.

謝謝，安德烈。

Our team continues to execute our strategy with excellence enabling strong results over the past six-plus years, pre-COVID, during COVID through a historic inflationary and pricing cycle and through geopolitical tensions.

我們的團隊繼續以卓越的方式執行我們的策略，在過去六年多的時間裡，在新冠疫情之前、新冠疫情期間，經歷了歷史性的通膨和定價週期以及地緣政治緊張局勢，取得了強勁的業績。

They've now delivered 26 consecutive quarters of 2% or better organic sales growth, averaging 5.5% organic sales growth over those 6.5 years.

他們現已連續 26 個季度實現 2% 或更高的有機銷售成長，在這 6.5 年裡平均有機銷售成長 5.5%。

We've now delivered 8.5 fiscal years of 2% or better core earnings per share growth, averaging nearly 8% over that period.

目前，我們已經在 8.5 個財年中實現了每股核心收益 2% 或更高的成長，在此期間平均接近 8%。

This is the type of long term -- sorry, turning my page here, balance top and bottom line growth we strive to deliver, solid and consistent growth over time.

這是一種長期的類型——抱歉，在這裡翻頁，平衡我們努力實現的頂線和底線增長，隨著時間的推移實現穩定和持續的增長。

As we expected heading into the fiscal year, first half results were below the guidance ranges we set for the full year.

正如我們在進入本財年時所預期的那樣，上半年業績低於我們為全年設定的指導範圍。

And while recent consumer trends and FX rates make the balance of the year more challenging, we continue to expect stronger results in the second half.

儘管最近的消費趨勢和匯率使今年的平衡變得更具挑戰性，但我們仍然預計下半年會有更強勁的業績。

Andre will discuss this more in the guidance update.

安德烈將在指南更新中對此進行更多討論。

We remain committed to the integrated strategy that has enabled our strong results and that is the foundation for balanced growth and value creation.

我們仍然致力於綜合策略，該策略使我們取得了強勁的業績，也是平衡成長和價值創造的基礎。

We highlighted many of the reasons we're confident in the strategy at our Investor Day in November.

我們在 11 月的投資者日強調了我們對該策略充滿信心的許多原因。

If you weren't able to attend, I encourage you to listen to the replay on our IR website.

如果您無法參加，我鼓勵您收聽我們 IR 網站上的重播。

To recap, we remain very disciplined in our portfolio choices, including some moves over the past year to strengthen our ability to generate US dollar based returns.

總而言之，我們在投資組合選擇上仍然非常嚴格，包括過去一年中為加強我們產生美元回報的能力而採取的一些措施。

We're doubling down on superiority across all five vectors.

我們正在加倍加強所有五個向量的優勢。

No single vector of superiority can carry the day itself, it's all five together.

任何單一的優勢向量都無法獨自佔據這一天，它是五個因素共同作用的結果。

The innovation plans to create and extend superiority across the business are very strong and we continue to leverage recent innovations by driving more Trial and household penetration.

在整個業務中創造和擴展優勢的創新計劃非常強大，我們繼續透過推動更多的試用和家庭滲透來利用最新的創新。

A few examples, Charmin Smooth Tear with its patented scalloped-edge, the biggest innovation in toilet paper in 100 years, continues to drive Charmin volume and value share growth in the US.

舉幾個例子，Charmin Smooth Tear 擁有專利的扇形邊緣，是衛生紙 100 年來最大的創新，繼續推動 Charmin 在美國的銷售和價值份額成長。

We were first to launch the whole-body deodorant sprays now across the Old Spice, Secret and Native brands, and we continue to drive Trial in the growing segment -- in this growing segment of the category.

我們首先在 Old Spice、Secret 和 Native 品牌中推出全身除臭噴霧劑，並且我們將繼續在不斷增長的細分市場中推動試用——在該類別的這一不斷增長的細分市場中。

P&G US deodorant volume and value share are each up nearly a point over the last year.

寶潔美國除臭劑銷售和價值份額均比去年增長了近一個百分點。

Dawn Powerwash continues to drive market share, up more than 1 point in the U.S. market after nearly three years in the market.

Dawn Powerwash 繼續提升市場份額，在美國市場上市近三年後，其市佔率上升了超過 1 個百分點。

Swiffer PowerMop has become the largest innovation on Swiffer's history, contributing to 40% growth of the brand portfolio and driving a remarkable 35% growth in the category.

Swiffer PowerMop 已成為 Swiffer 史上最大的創新，為品牌組合貢獻了 40% 的成長，並推動該類別實現了 35% 的驚人成長。

We've launched our most advanced power toothbrush, Oral-B iO 10 early last year.

去年年初，我們推出了最先進的電動牙刷 Oral-B iO 10。

We followed up with iO 2, the first iO designed to help consumers trade up from a manual toothbrush to a power brush.

我們隨後推出了 iO 2，這是首款旨在幫助消費者從手動牙刷升級為電動牙刷的 iO。

Early results in the US are very encouraging, and we're expanding iO 2 across major markets over the next several months.

美國的早期結果非常令人鼓舞，我們將在接下來的幾個月內將 iO 2 擴展到主要市場。

We just launched our best-ever whitening toothpaste, Crest 3DWhite Deep Stain Remover.

我們剛剛推出了有史以來最好的美白牙膏，佳潔士 3DWhite 深層去污劑。

The new formula works in just 1 day to dissolve the bonds that lock stains to your teeth and better prevent stains from occurring.

新配方只需 1 天即可溶解牙齒上污漬的附著力，更能防止污漬的產生。

The early trial period for deep stain remover is off to a great start.

深層去污劑的早期試用期已經有了一個好的開始。

We're expanding Zevo, our insect killing sprays, mosquito and tick repellents and insect traps, with worry-free ingredients inspired by plants' natural defenses against bugs.

我們正在擴展 Zevo，我們的殺蟲劑噴霧劑、蚊子和蜱蟲驅避劑以及昆蟲誘捕器，其成分靈感源自植物對昆蟲的天然防禦能力，讓您無憂無慮。

We're building distribution and trial and receiving very strong consumer ratings and reviews.

我們正在建立分銷和試用，並收到非常強烈的消費者評級和評論。

Tide OXI Boost Power PODS have just launched online with a great response from retailers and customers.

Tide OXI Boost Power PODS 剛剛上線，獲得了零售商和客戶的熱烈回應。

OXI Boost includes two times the OXI power to provide Tide's most powerful clean.

OXI Boost 包含兩倍 OXI 功率，可提供 Tide 最強大的清潔效果。

OXI Boost Power PODS will be available in stores soon, and we'll be following up quickly with additional innovations in laundry detergents and fabric enhancers.

OXI Boost Power PODS 很快就會在商店上市，我們將迅速跟進洗衣劑和織物增強劑的更多創新。

Finally, Tide evo, our new laundry detergent developed on our breakthrough functional fibers platform, continues to exceed expectations in our Colorado test market, surpassing our year one performance goals in just the first 12 weeks after launch.

最後，汰漬 evo 是我們在突破性功能纖維平台上開發的新型洗衣劑，在科羅拉多州測試市場繼續超出預期，在推出後的前 12 週內就超越了我們第一年的績效目標。

We're progressing through the last phase of supply chain readiness, and we'll be assessing our expansion plans in the coming months.

我們正在完成供應鏈準備的最後階段，我們將在未來幾個月評估我們的擴張計劃。

There are many more examples we could share considering the next six months of innovations across Tide, Gain, Downy, Febreze, Dawn, Cascade, Mr. Clean, Pampers, Luvs.

考慮到 Tide、Gain、Downy、Febreze、Dawn、Cascade、Mr. Clean、Pampers、Luvs 等產品未來六個月的創新，我們還有很多例子可以分享。

Tampax, Always, Always Discreet, Bounty, Old Spice, Crest, Gillette and Venus brands.

Tampax、Always、Always Discreet、Bounty、Old Spice、Crest、Gillette 和 Venus 品牌。

And that's just in the US.

這只是在美國。

I hope you can see this is one reason we're confident in our prospects going forward.

我希望您能看到這是我們對未來前景充滿信心的原因之一。

We're Improving productivity in all areas of our operations to fuel investments in superiority, mitigate cost and currency headwinds and drive margin expansion.

我們正在提高所有業務領域的生產力，以推動優勢投資，減輕成本和貨幣阻力並推動利潤率擴張。

We've extended our visibility to productivity improvement, with each business unit building three-year cost savings master plans, mirroring what we've done for years in our innovation program.

我們擴大了對生產力提高的認識，每個業務部門都制定了三年成本節約總體計劃，反映了我們多年來在創新計劃中所做的事情。

We're driving constructive disruption of ourselves and our industry, a willingness to change, adapt and create new trends, technologies and capabilities that will shape the future of our industry and extend our competitive advantage.

我們正在推動對我們自己和我們的行業的建設性顛覆，願意改變、適應和創造新的趨勢、技術和能力，這些將塑造我們行業的未來並擴大我們的競爭優勢。

We've designed and continue to refine and strengthen P&G's organization structure, so that it enables P&G people to be fully empowered, agile and accountable, focused on business outcomes to deliver the greatest value creation.

我們設計並不斷完善和加強寶潔的組織結構，使寶潔員工能夠得到充分授權、敏捷和負責，專注於業務成果，以創造最大的價值。

We call this an integrated strategy for a reason.

我們稱之為綜合戰略是有原因的。

Each part of the strategy needs to be delivered.

戰略的每個部分都需要交付。

It's not a menu to pick and choose from.

這不是一個可供挑選的菜單。

Each element is incredibly important.

每個元素都非常重要。

The real advantage comes from being able to do all of these things at the same time.

真正的優勢來自於能夠同時做所有這些事情。

The strategy is inherently dynamic.

該戰略本質上是動態的。

It adapts to the changing needs of consumers, customers and society.

它適應消費者、客戶和社會不斷變化的需求。

It demands that we not sit still.

它要求我們不能坐以待斃。

We continue to believe our best path forward is to double down on this integrated strategy, operating with a focus on driving market growth, creating business versus taking business, to deliver balanced top and bottom line growth and value creation.

我們仍然相信，我們前進的最佳道路是加倍推行這項綜合策略，專注於推動市場成長、創造業務而不是搶奪業務，以實現平衡的營收和利潤成長以及價值創造。

With that, I'll hand it back to Andre to discuss guidance.

這樣，我會將其交還給安德烈以討論指導。

Thank you, Jon.

謝謝你，喬恩。

So with half of the fiscal year complete, our guidance ranges for fiscal '25 are unchanged and remain consistent with our long-term algorithm.

因此，隨著本財年已過半，我們對 25 財年的指導範圍保持不變，並與我們的長期演算法保持一致。

We've highlighted we continue to expect the environment around us to remain volatile and challenging from input costs to currencies, to consumer, competitor, retailer and geopolitical dynamics.

我們強調，我們仍然預期周圍的環境將保持波動和挑戰，從貨幣投入成本到消費者、競爭對手、零售商和地緣政治動態。

On the top line, we are maintaining our organic sales growth guidance in the range of 3% to 5%.

在營收方面，我們將有機銷售成長指引維持在 3% 至 5% 的範圍內。

We continue to expect the markets in which we compete to deliver local currency sales growth in the range of 3% to 4% for the year.

我們繼續預計，我們競爭的市場今年以當地貨幣計算的銷售額將成長 3% 至 4%。

And our objective remains to grow organic sales modestly ahead of the underlying growth of these markets.

我們的目標仍然是在這些市場的潛在成長之前適度成長有機銷售額。

On the bottom line, our core EPS guidance range for fiscal '25 remains a growth of 5% to 7% versus fiscal '24 core EPS of $6.59. This guidance equates to a range of $6.91 to $7.05 per share.

總而言之，我們 25 財年的核心 EPS 指引範圍仍比 24 財年 6.59 美元的核心 EPS 成長 5% 至 7%。該指引相當於每股 6.91 美元至 7.05 美元的範圍。

Our outlook for commodity costs remains consistent with our recent guidance, expecting a commodity cost headwind of approximately $200 million after tax, which equates to a headwind of $0.08 per share for fiscal '25.

我們對商品成本的展望與我們最近的指引保持一致，預計稅後商品成本阻力約為 2 億美元，相當於 25 財年每股阻力為 0.08 美元。

Since last earnings, foreign exchange rates have moved sharply against us.

自上次財報以來，外匯匯率對我們來說急劇波動。

We are now expecting a headwind of approximately $300 million after tax, which equates to a headwind of $0.12 per share for fiscal '25.

我們現在預計稅後阻力約為 3 億美元，相當於 25 財年每股阻力為 0.12 美元。

We continue to expect lower nonoperating income benefit this fiscal year and a somewhat higher tax rate versus the prior year.

我們仍預期本財年的非營業收入效益將下降，稅率將比前一年提高。

Combined, these additional headwinds amount to $0.10 to $0.12 to core EPS, on top of the commodities and FX headwinds I mentioned.

除了我提到的大宗商品和外匯不利因素之外，這些額外的不利因素合計對核心每股收益造成 0.10 至 0.12 美元。

With projected softer market growth and stronger foreign exchange headwinds, we currently have good visibility towards the lower end of the top and bottom line guidance ranges.

由於預計市場成長疲軟和外匯阻力加大，我們目前對頂線和底線指導範圍的下限有良好的了解。

However, we will continue to push all levers in our control to offset these headwinds that are largely not in our control.

然而，我們將繼續推動我們控制範圍內的所有槓桿，以抵消這些很大程度上不在我們控制範圍內的逆風。

We expect adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90% for the year.

我們預計今年調整後的自由現金流生產力將為 90%。

And we have plans to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase $6 billion to $7 billion in common stock combined to returning $16 billion to $17 billion of cash to shareowners for the fiscal year.

我們計劃在本財年支付約 100 億美元的股息，並回購 60 億至 70 億美元的普通股，總共向股東返還 160 億至 170 億美元的現金。

This outlook is based on current market growth estimates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates.

這項展望是基於當前的市場成長預測、大宗商品價格和外匯匯率。

Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major supply chain disruptions or store closures are not anticipated within the guidance ranges.

預計貨幣大幅疲軟、大宗商品成本上漲、地緣政治幹擾、重大供應鏈中斷或商店關閉不會出現在指導範圍內。

Now I'll hand it over to Jon for closing thoughts.

現在我將把它交給喬恩來結束我的想法。

We're very pleased with the results P&G people have delivered in a very challenging and volatile environment, a good first half of the year and a stronger outlook for the second half.

我們對寶潔員工在充滿挑戰和動盪的環境中所取得的成果感到非常滿意，上半年業績良好，下半年前景更加樂觀。

We remain focused on excellent execution of our integrated dynamic market constructive strategy, aimed at delivering balanced top and bottom-line growth and value creation, starting with a commitment to deliver irresistibly superior propositions to consumers and retailers.

我們仍然專注於出色執行我們的綜合動態市場建設性策略，旨在實現平衡的營收和利潤成長以及價值創造，首先致力於向消費者和零售商提供令人難以抗拒的卓越主張。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

這樣，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指令）Dara Mohsenian，摩根士丹利。

I just wanted to drill down a bit more short term into organic sales growth for the back half of the year, given some of the volatility over the last year.

考慮到去年的一些波動，我只是想更短期地深入了解今年下半年的自然銷售成長。

You've talked historically about the OSG split between the robust 85% in country mix versus a lagging 15% the last few quarters.

您曾經討論過 OSG 在國家組合中佔 85% 的強勁比例與過去幾季落後的 15% 之間的差距。

Can you just give us a bit of update on the performance in fiscal Q2 in each of those buckets?

您能否向我們介紹一下第二財季各類別的業績最新情況？

Do you think you're on track for continued improvement in the 15% in the back half of the year as you look versus Q2 and also just sustainability of growth in 95%, that's stronger, presumably driven by the US and Europe?

與第二季相比，您認為下半年 15% 的成長是否有望持續改善，並且可持續成長 95%（這更強勁，大概是由美國和歐洲推動的）？

Dara, thanks for the question.

達拉，謝謝你的提問。

I'll take a crack at it.

我會嘗試一下。

And Jon, you'll jump in.

喬恩，你也加入進來。

So if you look at quarter 2 and I apply the same logic that we've been using to explain the divergence of the majority of the business versus some of the tougher markets, 85% of the business, so comprising of the US, Europe, Latin America -- the Latin America and Europe Enterprise Markets, that 85% continues to grow at around 4%.

因此，如果你看第二季度，我會應用我們一直用來解釋大多數業務與一些更艱難的市場（85% 的業務，包括美國、歐洲）之間的差異的相同邏輯，拉丁美洲——拉丁美洲和歐洲企業市場，85%持續以4%左右的速度成長。

What has improved is the 15%.

改善的是15%。

So the performance of the balance of the markets, mainly the Asia, Middle East, Africa markets, but a significant improvement in Greater China.

所以各市場表現均衡，主要是亞洲、中東、非洲市場，但大中華區改善明顯。

So China was down 15% organic sales in quarter one and was down, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, only 3% in quarter two.

因此，中國第一季的有機銷售額下降了 15%，正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，第二季僅下降了 3%。

So we see encouraging momentum towards recovery and hopefully more neutral picture as we go into half two.

因此，我們看到了令人鼓舞的復甦勢頭，並希望在進入第二半時情況更加中性。

That's exactly what we're expecting as we go into the second half of the year.

這正是我們在進入下半年時所期望的。

We expect the US to continue to grow at the pace that we've seen in quarter two and quarter one.

我們預計美國將繼續以第二季和第一季的速度成長。

We expect some increased momentum across Europe and Latin America, specifically as comps ease versus the base period.

我們預計歐洲和拉丁美洲的勢頭將會增強，特別是隨著比較基期的放緩。

And with that, if we are combining, hopefully, a little bit stronger growth in North America, easier comps in Europe, LA and Asia, Middle East, Africa, and if China continues to move towards a more neutral contribution to sales growth, that would actually allow us to be at the midpoint of organic sales growth guidance, maybe a little bit higher.

因此，如果我們希望北美的成長更加強勁，歐洲、洛杉磯和亞洲、中東、非洲的競爭更加容易，如果中國繼續對銷售成長做出更中性的貢獻，那麼實際上會讓我們處於有機銷售成長指導的中點，也許更高一點。

Conversely, if we saw weakening across some of the core markets of North America and Europe or we saw China returning to more negative territory, that would move us to the lower end or slightly below the current organic sales growth guidance.

相反，如果我們看到北美和歐洲的一些核心市場疲軟，或者我們看到中國恢復到更負面的區域，這將使我們的有機銷售成長指導值下降或略低於當前有機銷售成長的指導值。

Our base case, Dara, to summarize, continued strong performance, around 4% in the 85% of the business, continued recovery on the 15%.

總結一下，我們的基本情況 Dara 繼續表現強勁，在 85% 的業務中，業績持續強勁，約 4%，在 15% 的業務中持續復甦。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

勞倫·利伯曼，巴克萊銀行。

So Andre, I think you were kind of running through projected performance for P&G's business.

安德烈，我認為您已經了解了寶潔公司業務的預期績效。

But I was hoping you could also comment on what you're seeing in terms of consumer behavior and dynamics.

但我希望您也能就您所看到的消費者行為和動態發表評論。

I think in December, you guys have flagged a little bit of a softening in the consumer environment in the U.S. as a maybe it's something that sticks, maybe it doesn't.

我認為在 12 月份，你們已經指出美國消費環境略有疲軟，因為也許這種情況會持續下去，也許不會。

But would just love to get a read on that.

但只是想讀。

And same in Europe, sort of the consumer dynamic, not just your own performance and market share trajectory.

在歐洲也是如此，消費者的動態，而不僅僅是你自己的表現和市場佔有率軌跡。

Yeah.

是的。

Lauren, generally, I would describe the consumer in our categories, which are, again, nondiscretionary and very focused on performance as stable.

勞倫，一般來說，我會描述我們類別中的消費者，這些消費者同樣是非自由裁量性的，並且非常注重穩定的性能。

In Europe, specifically, the market continues to grow at around 4% in Focus Markets and in double digits actually in Enterprise Markets.

特別是在歐洲，焦點市場的市場繼續以 4% 左右的速度成長，而企業市場的成長速度實際上達到了兩位數。

Our ability to continue to grow ahead of that, I think, is visible in the volume share numbers.

我認為，我們有能力繼續領先，這可以從銷售份額數字中看出。

We are growing volume share, about 50 basis points in Focus Markets and 60 basis points in Enterprise Markets.

我們的銷售份額正在不斷增長，焦點市場增加了約 50 個基點，企業市場增加了約 60 個基點。

Inflation is down in Europe to about 2%, and we see a relatively stable environment, which we expect to continue going into half two.

歐洲的通膨率已降至 2% 左右，我們看到了相對穩定的環境，預計這種情況將持續到下半年。

And we are investing in strong innovation in half two to benefit from that stable consumer environment.

我們在下半年投資強而有力的創新，以便從穩定的消費者環境中受益。

In the US, the current quarter has been a bit more volatile in terms of phasing of consumption.

在美國，本季的消費階段波動較大。

We saw very strong consumption in October, driven by hurricanes and by port strikes, easing off a little bit in October -- in November and then coming back in December.

在颶風和港口罷工的推動下，10 月的消費量非常強勁，10 月和 11 月的消費量略有下降，然後在 12 月又回升。

So it was volatile, but when I step back, I would characterize the situation very similarly to the European consumer, stable in our categories.

所以它是不穩定的，但當我退一步時，我會把這種情況描述為與歐洲消費者非常相似，在我們的類別中保持穩定。

Market growth continues to be around 4%.

市場成長率持續維持在4%左右。

Volume growth continues to be around 3%.And

銷量成長持續保持在 3% 左右。

again, our job is to encourage consumption in our categories with strong innovation and communication, which we're doing and continue to do across half two.

再說一次，我們的工作是透過強有力的創新和溝通來鼓勵我們類別的消費，這是我們正在做的，並將在下半年繼續做。

The only thing I would add to Andre's comments is in terms of reflecting on consumer behavior.

我對安德烈的評論唯一要補充的是對消費者行為的反思。

We're also seeing continued flat to declining private label shares in both the United States and in Europe.

我們也看到美國和歐洲的自有品牌份額持續持平甚至下降。

So that, again, is relatively reassuring in terms of the stable consumer that Andre rightly referred to.

因此，就安德烈正確提到的穩定消費者而言，這又是相對令人放心的。

Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

史蒂夫鮑爾斯，德意志銀行。

I guess, Andre, I'm a little surprised that your currency outlook as it relates to the impacts on the top line didn't move off the negative 1% call you had in place as of October, even as the after-tax profit impact stepped up by the $300 million.

我想，安德烈，我有點驚訝的是，你的貨幣前景與對營收的影響有關，並沒有擺脫你截至 10 月份實施的負 1% 的預期，即使稅後利潤也是如此影響力增加了3 億美元。

So maybe you could just talk about any key moving parts there and whether you've assumed further currency movements or if the full year now could have effectively assumed spot rates as we've seen in the last few weeks.

因此，也許您可以只討論那裡的任何關鍵變動部分，以及您是否假設了進一步的貨幣變動，或者全年是否可以有效地假設即期匯率，正如我們在過去幾週所看到的那樣。

And then relatedly, I guess, I'd love a little bit more discussion of the productivity and pricing levers you have available to you as an offset to those dynamics and whether you see any limitations to implementing them over the balance of the year.

然後，我想，我想更多地討論您可以使用的生產力和定價槓桿，作為對這些動態的抵消，以及您是否認為在今年餘下的時間裡實施它們有任何限制。

I'm asking that in the context that historically, 3Q, 4Q gross margins stepped down sequentially.

我問的是，從歷史上看，第三季、第四季毛利率依序下降。

So I think your guidance has seen some fairly strong operating leverage over the balance of the year in SG&A, but just wanted to see if you could clarify those moving parts.

因此，我認為您的指導意見在 SG&A 方面在今年剩餘時間中看到了一些相當強大的營運槓桿，但只是想看看您是否可以澄清這些活動部分。

Steve, I think we'll -- we are forecasting right now at spot rates as we always do, both on the P&L side and the organic sales growth side.

史蒂夫，我想我們會——我們現在像往常一樣以即期匯率進行預測，無論是在損益方面還是在有機銷售成長方面。

And Europe, we'll see -- we're seeing high volatility in currencies, obviously, that are moving on a daily basis based on commentary.

在歐洲，我們將會看到——我們會看到貨幣的高度波動，顯然，根據評論，貨幣每天都在變化。

So we'll reserve our ability to update here.

因此，我們將保留在這裡更新的能力。

But for now, we're reflecting spot rates.

但目前，我們反映的是即期匯率。

The impact of foreign exchange rate will mostly hit in the second half.

匯率的影響主要集中在下半年。

So we saw a lot of the commodity impact in the first half, and the corresponding impact of FX will be mostly in half two.

因此，我們在上半年看到了許多大宗商品的影響，而外匯的相應影響將主要集中在下半年。

That is built into our guidance logic that we've communicated.

這是我們所傳達的指導邏輯的一部分。

Our ability to deal with foreign exchange as with any headwind is a combination of productivity, which we feel very good about for the year across all productivity buckets.

我們應對外匯問題的能力與應對任何逆風的能力是生產力的結合，我們對今年所有生產力方面的表現都感到非常滿意。

So we're confident in our $1.5 billion productivity guidance on cost of goods sold and the $2 billion guidance overall, including SG&A and pricing levers.

因此，我們對 15 億美元的銷售成本生產力指引和 20 億美元的整體指引（包括 SG&A 和定價槓桿）充滿信心。

Pricing is probably most pronounced in Enterprise Markets, where we see strong foreign exchange rate exposure, but it's going to be a combination of both.

定價可能在企業市場最為明顯，我們看到市場面臨強大的外匯風險，但這將是兩者的結合。

All of that is baked in, in our guidance commentary.

所有這些都包含在我們的指導評論中。

But again, we'll watch this closely because there's a lot of volatility in this, as you know.

但我們將再次密切關注這種情況，因為正如您所知，這其中存在很大的波動性。

Just on pricing, Steve, the -- our business model is, hopefully, was reflected again.

史蒂夫，就定價而言，我們的商業模式有望再次體現。

And my comments this morning is heavily innovation based.

我今天早上的評論很大程度上是基於創新的。

It's at the heart of everything we do, and that's the primary enabler of modest amounts of pricing as we move forward.

它是我們所做一切的核心，也是我們前進過程中適度定價的主要動力。

If you look at our history, again, as a source of potential confidence in our ability to continue to execute modest amounts of pricing, even as Andre said, in the Focus Markets, pricing has been a neutral or a positive contributor to our top line growth for 19 of the last 20 years and for 54 of the last 57 quarters.

如果你再次回顧我們的歷史，你會發現，這對我們繼續執行適度定價的能力有潛在信心，即使正如安德烈所說，在焦點市場中，定價對我們的營收一直是中性或積極的貢獻者過去 20 年中有 19 年和過去 57 個季度中有 54 個季度實現成長。

Andre mentioned we have very strong second half innovation programs across markets.

安德烈提到，我們在各個市場都有非常強大的下半年創新計畫。

And so that should enable us to continue to put some upward pressure on the top line.

因此，這應該使我們能夠繼續對營收施加一些上行壓力。

Again, modest, but we're in a pretty good position with all of that innovation.

再說一次，雖然很謙虛，但我們在所有這些創新方面處於非常有利的位置。

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

布萊恩·斯皮蘭，美國銀行。

So just a question or maybe two on China.

所以我只想問一兩個關於中國的問題。

One, just the 3% in the quarter, just how did Chinese New Year's impact that?

第一，本季僅成長 3%，農曆新年對此有何影響？

So I guess, is that kind of reflective of consumption?

所以我想，這是消費的反映嗎？

Or is there any timing shift shipment versus consumption?

或者運輸與消費之間是否有時間轉移？

And then maybe just more broadly, Jon, the market is changing.

喬恩，也許更廣泛地說，市場正在改變。

And does it create opportunities?

它會創造機會嗎？

Are you looking now to kind of use your position as a position of strength and expand in China while the market is soft?

您現在是否希望利用自己的優勢地位，在市場疲軟的情況下在中國擴張？

Just curious if the change in the marketplace at all has changed the way you're thinking about the market strategically.

只是好奇市場的變化是否改變了您對市場的策略思考。

Do you want to answer the first part?

您想回答第一部分嗎？

I can.

我可以。

Bryan, so I think the China results are not impacted by heavy phasing.

布萊恩，所以我認為中國的結果不會受到嚴重分階段的影響。

Within the quarter, there was phasing in China on the timing of pre-shipments for 11/11, but that kind of evened out across the quarter.

本季度內，中國對 11/11 的預發貨時間進行了分階段調整，但整個季度的情況基本持平。

So the progress is really what we had anticipated.

所以進展確實是我們所預期的。

We're getting into easier comps, part of that.

我們正在進入更簡單的比賽，這是其中的一部分。

Part of that is SK-II is returning to growth in China at 5%, which is encouraging to see.

其中一部分原因是 SK-II 在中國恢復了 5% 的成長，這是令人鼓舞的。

And the last point I'll make is on the core brands, we're making progress.

我要說的最後一點是關於核心品牌，我們正在取得進展。

We are innovating on hair care across Pantene, Head & Shoulders.

我們正在潘婷 (Pantene)、海飛絲 (Head & Shoulders) 的髮質護理領域進行創新。

We're innovating on fabric care.

我們正在織物護理方面進行創新。

We're innovating on Olay, and that is driving progress.

我們正在對玉蘭油進行創新，這正在推動進步。

We are carefully investing in the fastest growing channel in Douyin to ensure that we create value there, but that allows us to now grow share in that channel.

我們正在謹慎投資抖音成長最快的管道，以確保我們在那裡創造價值，但這使我們現在能夠增加該管道的份額。

And the last element is I think the go-to-market interventions that we've made.

我認為最後一個因素是我們採取的進入市場幹預措施。

We talked about in the last call where we improved our collaboration and synchronization with our core distributors is paying dividends.

我們在上次電話會議中談到，我們改進了與核心分銷商的合作和同步正在帶來紅利。

So all of that is moving in the right direction.

所以所有這一切都在朝著正確的方向發展。

I want to be clear, I don't think China is out of the woods.

我想澄清的是，我不認為中國已經走出困境。

This will continue to be difficult.

這將繼續變得困難。

It will continue to be volatile.

它將繼續波動。

As reflected in my guidance commentary, that volatility can drive us to the midpoint or the lower end of the guidance.

正如我的指導評論所反映的那樣，這種波動性可能會將我們推向指導的中點或下限。

And so we don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but it's good to see the trends going more positive.

因此，我們不想超前，但很高興看到趨勢變得更加積極。

And you make a very, very good point on taking advantage of significant change that's occurring in the marketplace, both with regard to consumer behavior and with regard to customer behavior and channels.

您在利用市場中正在發生的重大變化方面提出了非常非常好的觀點，無論是在消費者行為方面還是在客戶行為和管道方面。

And we intend to do exactly as you described, which is to take advantage of those changes.

我們打算完全按照您的描述進行操作，即利用這些變化。

One of the -- there are a couple of things that I just want to bring a little bit more focus to that are very, very important.

其中之一——有幾件事我只是想多加關注，這些事情非常非常重要。

One is, if you look at our distributor channels largely feeding the wholesale market and smaller grocery stores, they were being paid based on total P&G business, and we've changed that.

一是，如果你看看我們的分銷管道主要為批發市場和小型雜貨店提供服務，你會發現他們的報酬是根據寶潔公司的總業務來支付的，我們已經改變了這一點。

So they're now being paid by category.

所以他們現在就按類別付費。

So they have to deliver against each of the categories that we have products in, in order to be fully compensated.

因此，他們必須針對我們產品的每個類別提供服務，才能獲得充分的補償。

That might not seem like a big deal.

這似乎沒什麼大不了的。

That's a big deal.

這是一件大事。

It changes behavior significantly.

它顯著改變了行為。

We've also moved -- we've taken advantage of all the changes that are going on to move our China operations even closer to, for example, how we manage things in the US or focus Europe in terms of end-to-end, meaning that the categories own everything from the front end of innovation all the way through to the customer discussions.

我們也採取了行動——我們利用了所有正在發生的變化，使我們的中國業務更加接近，例如，我們在美國管理事物的方式或在端到端方面關注歐洲的方式，這意味著這些類別擁有從前端創新一直到客戶討論的一切。

And that wasn't fully the case, say, two years ago, even a year ago.

比如說，兩年前，甚至一年前，情況並非完全如此。

So those are big changes.

所以這些都是很大的改變。

The third big change is really reoriented the conversation that we're having internally and externally with our customers to one of market growth and demonstrating how we can be the biggest driver -- their strongest partners in driving that market growth, which is something that everyone wants badly.

第三個重大變化實際上是重新調整我們與客戶在內部和外部進行的關於市場成長的對話，並展示我們如何成為最大的推動者——他們在推動市場成長方面最強大的合作夥伴，這是每個人都希望看到的非常想要。

So that's another example of taking advantage of the current situation to become even stronger and more relevant to our customers.

這是利用當前情勢變得更強大、與客戶更相關的另一個例子。

So thanks for asking that question.

謝謝你提出這個問題。

I think it's an excellent one, and it's something we're very much focused on.

我認為這是一件非常出色的事情，也是我們非常關注的事情。

Peter Grom, UBS.

彼得‧格羅姆，瑞銀集團。

I wanted to get just some perspective on the input cost environment.

我只是想了解一些投入成本環境的觀點。

I recognize you maintained your outlook for the $200 million after-tax headwind, but we've seen some volatility across some of your key raw materials over the past few months.

我意識到您維持了對 2 億美元稅後逆風的預期，但我們看到過去幾個月您的一些關鍵原材料出現了一些波動。

So Andre, can you maybe just give us or unpack what you're seeing or expecting across your key cost buckets?

那麼安德烈，您能否向我們提供或解開您在關鍵成本方面所看到或期望的內容？

And then just kind of looking at the first half impact on the full year guidance, you kind of alluded to this in Steve's question.

然後看看上半年對全年指導的影響，你在史蒂夫的問題中提到了這一點。

Are you anticipating input cost deflation in the back half of the year when we think about our gross margin bridge?

當我們考慮我們的毛利率橋樑時，您是否預計下半年投入成本會下降？

Input costs for us, obviously you can appreciate, is a wide variety of different materials and commodities.

顯然你可以理解，對我們來說，投入成本是各種不同的材料和商品。

What I'll tell you, which I think is most relevant for what you're after is, any variation that we see now versus what we already incurred in half one, which is the majority of the $200 million impact that we are talking about, will likely not hit the current year P&L.

我要告訴你的是，我認為與你所追求的最相關的是，我們現在看到的任何變化與我們在上半年已經發生的情況相比，這是我們正在談論的2 億美元影響的大部分，可能不會達到當年的損益。

Because of variance holding and because of our contract structures, any major deviation in terms of oil prices outside of maybe transportation will impact half 1 of next fiscal year.

由於差異持有和我們的合約結構，運輸以外的石油價格的任何重大偏差都將影響下一財年的一半。

Most of our materials and commodities will impact the first half of next fiscal year.

我們的大部分材料和商品將影響下一財年上半年。

So we feel relatively good about that end of the equation because it provides stability for the second half where more of the volatility is, is again in foreign exchange rates.

因此，我們對等式的這一端感覺相對較好，因為它為下半年提供了穩定性，而下半年的波動更大，再次是外匯匯率。

That doesn't mean we don't look at our input costs carefully because as we said, we need to get ready to deal with it in the first half of next fiscal year, which then comes to Jon's point on appropriately developing pricing plans with innovation, productivity programs, et cetera.

這並不意味著我們沒有仔細考慮我們的投入成本，因為正如我們所說，我們需要準備好在下一財年的上半年處理它，然後談到喬恩關於適當制定定價計劃的觀點創新、生產力計劃等等。

But the variability in the current year, we believe, is going to be limited.

但我們認為，今年的變化將是有限的。

Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan.

安德里亞·特謝拉，摩根大通。

If we step back from the tone on the first quarter and then now the second quarter fiscal in regards to the range of guidance for both organic and EPS growth, is it fair to say you're feeling a bit better about getting to the midpoint on the top line, but EPS more pressured, given the increased headwinds in FX?

如果我們從第一季度的基調和現在的第二季度財政關於有機增長和每股收益增長的指導範圍上退一步，可以公平地說，你對達到中間點感覺更好一些嗎？考慮到外匯不利因素的增加，每股盈餘面臨更大的壓力？

I just want to understand how it changed.

我只是想了解它是如何改變的。

And then if so, if any changes, it seems like your productivity is coming in or even your operating leverage is coming in better than anticipated or better than feared, if you will?

如果是這樣，如果有任何變化，似乎你的生產力正在提高，甚至你的營運槓桿會比預期或比擔心的更好，如果你願意的話？

And related to that, just a clarification about the disruptions you called out in December in one of your suppliers.

與此相關的是，我想澄清一下您在 12 月對一家供應商提出的干擾問題。

I've been getting questions regarding there is anything in terms of sell-in, sell-out.

我一直收到關於賣出、賣出方面的問題。

I understand there wasn't anything material in the quarter, either like catching up to that or anything that we should be aware of into the fiscal third quarter.

據我所知，本季度沒有任何實質內容，無論是趕上這一情況還是我們在第三財季應該注意的任何事情。

Andrea, so related to guidance, what I'd tell you is what I mentioned in the prepared remarks, right?

安德里亞，與指導相關，我要告訴你的是我在準備好的評論中提到的，對吧？

At the moment, when we -- when you look at foreign exchange rate, you look at what we've delivered in the front half of the year, we would say we have good visibility and confidence to the lower end of the guidance range, both on organic sales growth and on core EPS.

目前，當您查看外匯匯率時，您會看到我們在今年上半年所交付的數據，我們會說我們對指導範圍的下限有良好的可見性和信心，有機銷售增長和核心每股收益。

That doesn't mean that we don't have a shot at delivering the middle of the range.

這並不意味著我們沒有機會提供中間範圍的產品。

And as I said, if we continue to make good progress in China, if we continue to see some easing of the tensions in the Middle East and, therefore, business picks up, if Europe and North America continue to deliver, we have a good shot at the top line around the midpoint of the range and corresponding EPS.

正如我所說，如果我們繼續在中國取得良好進展，如果我們繼續看到中東緊張局勢有所緩和，因此業務有所回升，如果歐洲和北美繼續表現出色，我們就有一個良好的前景在範圍中點附近的頂線和對應的EPS 處拍攝。

But at the moment, I would point you to the lower end.

但目前，我會向你指出低端。

On transportation management system interruption, look, we wanted to give you guys visibility to what we were seeing.

關於運輸管理系統中斷，我們想讓你們了解我們所看到的情況。

We -- when we experienced the disruption, we saw a backlog of orders building up that would have been worth about 60 to 70 basis points of the quarter.

當我們經歷中斷時，我們看到訂單積壓不斷增加，本季的價值約為 60 至 70 個基點。

And we had assumed at that point that we would get rid of half of that backlog through intense work by the team to operate a backup solution and get us back on the main operating system.

當時我們假設，透過團隊運行備份解決方案的大量工作，我們將消除一半的積壓工作，並讓我們回到主作業系統。

The team did way better.

球隊做得更好。

They were able to not only work through the full backlog and get us back on the operating system faster.

他們不僅能夠處理全部積壓的工作，還能讓我們更快恢復作業系統。

They were also able to then process strong orders in late December.

他們還能夠在 12 月底處理大量訂單。

There is no impact quarter-over-quarter driven by the transportation management system outage.

運輸管理系統中斷不會對季度造成影響。

So no unusual effect to consider there.

所以沒有什麼不尋常的影響需要考慮。

Just great work by the team to get us through this without any impact on the quarter.

團隊的出色工作讓我們度過了難關，並且對本季沒有任何影響。

Robert Ottenstein, Evercore.

羅伯特‧奧滕斯坦，Evercore。

ISI.

情報情報局。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Just, first a clarification on China and -- if I missed it, but I know that you're doing better, your brands are doing better.

只是，先對中國進行澄清——如果我錯過了，但我知道你們做得更好，你們的品牌做得更好。

SK-IIs is doing better, but just wanted to get any commentary on the Chinese consumer, -- the health of the Chinese consumer as the quarter developed and then into January.

SK-II 做得更好，但只是想得到有關中國消費者的評論——中國消費者在本季度和一月份的健康狀況。

So just to follow up on that, and then my main question is on innovation this year, you sound more upbeat positive on this and excited in terms of what you're bringing out in calendar 2025.

因此，接下來我的主要問題是關於今年的創新，您對此聽起來更加樂觀積極，並對 2025 年日曆中推出的內容感到興奮。

Is there any way to quantify that versus prior years, any way to think whether it's incremental shelf space or, the expected impact of the business on the top and bottom line, so that we can kind of try to model that?

有什麼方法可以量化與前幾年相比，有什麼方法可以思考它是增量的貨架空間還是業務對頂線和底線的預期影響，以便我們可以嘗試對其進行建模？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks Robert.

謝謝羅伯特。

From a Chinese consumer standpoint, as Andre intimated in some of his commentary, it's still a challenge so that really hasn't changed significantly.

從中國消費者的角度來看，正如安德烈在他的一些評論中所暗示的那樣，這仍然是一個挑戰，因此實際上並沒有發生重大變化。

There are signs though of some improvement, what am I talking about?

雖然有一些改善的跡象，但我在說什麼？

So for example, if we just look at the number of Chinese travelers to Korea and Japan, it's up pretty significantly quarter-on-quarter.

例如，如果我們只看去韓國和日本的中國遊客數量，我們會發現季度環比增長相當顯著。

We actually see that reflected in our SK-II business in those countries.

我們實際上在這些國家的 SK-II 業務中看到了這一點。

So that would indicate, more confidence and a willingness to spend.

所以這表明，更有信心和消費意願。

This -- the growth of SK-II itself and actually consumption growth in that business is a little bit ahead of even our shipment growth.

SK-II 本身的成長以及該業務的實際消費成長甚至比我們的出貨量成長還要快一些。

Is an indication of confidence that's as you know a very premium price product, but the broad swath of society is not confident and is still struggling.

這是一種信心的表現，正如你所知，這是一種價格非常高的產品，但社會的大部分人都沒有信心，並且仍在苦苦掙扎。

And that's why Andre says, we're not out of the woods.

這就是為什麼安德烈說，我們還沒有走出困境。

I agree with that statement and that it will take some time still to get to dependable growth in China.

我同意這項說法，而中國要實現可靠的成長還需要一些時間。

And the best data we have Robert to confirm what John was describing past three months, market in our categories in dollar terms is down 5% has12 months was down 5%.

我們掌握的羅伯特的最佳數據證實了約翰在過去三個月中所描述的內容，以美元計算，我們類別的市場在 12 個月內下降了 5%。

So Marco consumer environment pretty much stable, but not positive.

因此，馬可的消費環境相當穩定，但並非積極。

Relative to innovation, I don't have a numerical ability to describe the strength of our the innovation that's coming to market over the next six months vis a vis a year ago.

相對於創新，我無法用數字來描述未來六個月內即將上市的創新與一年前相比的強度。

But we are relatively, we have gained confidence in that program in part because of what we're seeing in the marketplace and what we're seeing in terms of consumer response to for example, the [Tide] test market in Colorado.

但相對而言，我們對該計劃充滿信心，部分原因是我們在市場上看到的情況以及消費者對科羅拉多州[Tide]測試市場的反應。

Again, we've delivered what we expected to deliver in the first year we've delivered in 12 weeks.

我們再次在 12 週內實現了第一年的預期目標。

We're looking at the continued growth of some of our premium innovations in terms of household penetration and market share.

我們正在關註一些優質創新在家庭滲透率和市場份額方面的持續成長。

I went through a litany of those examples earlier.

我之前經歷過一長串這樣的例子。

And then of course, there are some things that I'm not at liberty to talk about but in general, your observation, in terms of, as you describe, excitement or confidence in our innovation program is strong.

當然，有些事情我不能隨意談論，但總的來說，正如您所描述的，您對我們的創新計劃的興奮或信心是強烈的。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

邦妮·赫爾佐格，高盛。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I guess thinking about your guidance this year, if your organic sales come in at the lower end as you kind of touched on it, trends to cerate further and thinking about gross margin tail wins, likely moderating this year.

我想考慮一下你今年的指導，如果你的有機銷售額在你觸及的時候處於較低水平，趨勢會進一步上升，並考慮毛利率尾部勝利，今年可能會放緩。

Curious how much flexibility you have to deliver on your EPS guidance range.

好奇您必須在 EPS 指導範圍內提供多大的彈性。

And then in the context of that, do you see a potential that you might need to lower your reinvestment levels to deliver on your bottom line guidance?

那麼在這種情況下，您是否認為您可能需要降低再投資水準以實現您的利潤指引？

Any color on, just how to think about your ability to continue to reinvest in your business.

任何顏色，只是如何思考您繼續對業務進行再投資的能力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hey Bonnie, when we went through the years with really significant headwinds in terms of currency, commodities and effects.

嘿，邦妮，當我們在貨幣、大宗商品和影響方面經歷了真正重大的逆風時。

And I'm talking there about a 50% reduction in our profit over a two year period because of those items, we increased our spending on innovation, we increased our spending on commercialization of that innovation, and we [grew] modestly.

我說的是，由於這些項目，我們的利潤在兩年內減少了 50%，我們增加了創新支出，增加了創新商業化的支出，我們[成長]適度。

So that's our mindset.

這就是我們的心態。

And I just described a strong innovation pipeline.

我剛剛描述了一個強大的創新管道。

We will fully support that pipeline.

我們將全力支持該管道。

And frankly, I don't think it will, but if that means that we come in a little bit lower than that's what we need to accept.

坦白說，我認為不會，但如果這意味著我們的收入比這要低一點，那就是我們需要接受的。

And we'll be very transparent and clear about that if that were to be the case currently, it's not.

我們將非常透明和明確地表明，如果目前的情況是這樣，則事實並非如此。

But we're going to continue to invest in both innovation and commercialization of that innovation.

但我們將繼續投資於創新和創新的商業化。

Filippo Falorni, Citi.

菲利波·法洛尼，花旗銀行。

Hi, good morning, everyone.

嗨，大家早安。

I wanted to ask a little bit more call on the enterprise market, business.

我想多問一點關於企業市場、業務的問題。

You talked about Europe enterprise market still growing solidly.

您談到歐洲企業市場仍在穩健成長。

Maybe, can you give a little more call on Latin America.

也許，你能多談談拉丁美洲嗎？

How the consumer general health there in key countries like Brazil and Mexico.

巴西和墨西哥等主要國家的消費者整體健康狀況如何。

And then on the Middle East, you're starting to cycle is comps, is your expectation of a return to growth in the second half of '25?

然後在中東，您開始循環比較，您期望在 25 年下半年恢復成長嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, Filippo.

早安，菲利波。

LA in aggregate delivered 3% growth in this quarter on a base of 17%.

本季洛杉磯在 17% 的基礎上整體成長了 3%。

So quite impressive base period and continued growth across the market.

如此令人印象深刻的基期和整個市場的持續成長。

If you look at the consumers, I would describe Mexico as more difficult right now, but we are making good progress.

如果你看看消費者，我會認為墨西哥現在更加困難，但我們正在取得良好進展。

And I have a great confidence in the half two plans that we are executing and the same is true for Brazil.

我對我們正在執行的前兩個計劃充滿信心，巴西也是如此。

So my expectation would be an acceleration in Latin America partially driven by the base becoming a little bit easier, but also given strong plans across those core markets.

因此，我的預期是拉丁美洲的加速發展，部分原因是基礎變得更加容易，但也考慮到這些核心市場的強有力計劃。

Europe enterprise markets were up a point in the quarter on a base of 8% growth.

歐洲企業市場在本季成長 8% 的基礎上上升了一個百分點。

Encouragingly, we are growing volume share in enterprise markets in Europe by 60 basis points.

令人鼓舞的是，我們在歐洲企業市場的銷售份額增加了 60 個基點。

Market growth are still very strong.

市場成長仍然非常強勁。

So we feel good about the market context, but also about our own ability to execute.

因此，我們對市場環境感覺良好，同時也對自己的執行能力感到滿意。

I was just there with our CEO last week.

上週我剛剛和我們的執行長在一起。

The innovation plans are very strong.

創新計劃非常強大。

The go to market plans are very strong.

上市計劃非常有力。

The stores look phenomenal and the opportunity is huge and the profitability we have in both Latin America and in Europe enterprise markets allows us to remain fully invested in that innovation and the support thereof.

這些商店看起來很棒，機會巨大，我們在拉丁美洲和歐洲企業市場的盈利能力使我們能夠繼續充分投資於創新及其支持。

AMA, Asia, Middle East Africa.

AMA、亞洲、中東非洲。

Look the main driver here will be stabilization in the Middle East.

看來這裡的主要推動力將是中東的穩定。

We hope that progress is sustaining.

我們希望這種進展能夠持續下去。

And we can go from there.

我們可以從那裡開始。

But I think it will remain a more difficult environment for us to the second half.

但我認為下半年我們仍將面臨更困難的環境。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

克里斯凱裡，富國銀行證券。

I'd like to ask a few category specific questions.

我想問一些特定類別的問題。

I'll count this as one single category question, if you'll allow.

如果您允許的話，我會將其視為單一類別問題。

In the Family Care business, the double-digit growth you saw, would you attribute most of that to timing with some sort of reversal expected in the next quarter?

在家庭護理業務中，您看到的兩位數成長，您是否會將其大部分歸因於預計下個季度出現某種逆轉的時機？

In Oral Care business, it's the second quarter consecutive of low single digit, which is a bit below trend than what we've seen over the prior one-year period.

在口腔護理業務中，這是連續第二個季度出現低個位數成長，略低於我們在前一年期間看到的趨勢。

And then just in the Baby business, you did highlight that you'll be making some merchandising investments.

然後就在嬰兒業務中，您確實強調您將進行一些商品投資。

Jon spent some time on the resilience and longer-term history of pricing at P&G as a contributor to organic sales.

Jon 花了一些時間研究寶潔作為有機銷售貢獻者的定價彈性和長期歷史。

Clearly, this is one of those categories that has been a bit more challenged over time, and you're leaning in a bit more on investments.

顯然，這是隨著時間的推移而受到更大挑戰的類別之一，並且您更傾向於投資。

Can you expand on that a bit more?

能再擴展一下嗎？

What drives those sorts of decisions?

是什麼推動了這些決策？

And why now?

為什麼現在呢？

So just those three kinds of category questions.

這就是這三種類別的問題。

And any kind of timing dynamics, specifically with Family Care that we should be thinking about going into next quarter?

我們應該考慮進入下個季度的任何時間動態，特別是家庭護理？

All right.

好的。

Chris, let me take them one by one.

克里斯，讓我一一看一下。

So Family Care, we saw very strong shipments and very strong consumption, most importantly.

因此，最重要的是，家庭護理我們看到了非常強勁的出貨量和非常強勁的消費。

And as I mentioned, we had the port strike in October, and we had a hurricane in October.

正如我所提到的，我們在 10 月發生了港口罷工，並且在 10 月發生了颶風。

Both of those led to pantry loading from a consumer standpoint.

從消費者的角度來看，這兩者都導致了食品儲藏室的裝載。

So there was some pantry up-stocking clearly in October.

因此，十月份顯然有一些食品儲藏室的庫存增加。

We also saw strong shipments in late December in anticipation of a January merch event that's typical.

我們也在 12 月底看到了強勁的出貨量，因為我們預計 1 月的商品活動將是典型的。

We've had the same thing happened last year.

去年我們也發生過同樣的事情。

But there is some increased pantry inventory.

但食品儲藏室庫存增加。

History would tell us that, that consumers tend to hold on to that pantry loading for quite a while.

歷史告訴我們，消費者往往會在相當長的一段時間內保留食品儲藏室的裝載量。

We've seen this during COVID, and we always expected it would come out.

我們在新冠疫情期間已經看到了這一點，並且我們一直期望它會出現。

It never did.

但從來沒有。

So hard to say what the going impact is for the year.

很難說今年的影響是什麼。

I think we've appropriately protected for that in the guidance, but it's pantry inventory loading, and we expect the majority of that will sustain through the next quarter.

我認為我們在指南中對此進行了適當的保護，但這是食品儲藏室庫存的裝載，我們預計其中大部分將維持到下個季度。

Oral Care, I would point you to two things.

口腔護理，我想向您指出兩件事。

Number one, we'll roll out the full lineup of iO innovation, both iO 10, so up the value chain and iO 2 down to lower price points.

第一，我們將推出全系列的 iO 創新產品，包括 iO 10（提升價值鏈）和 iO 2（降低價格）。

And as we do that, I think the full opportunity across the power Oral Care business will become more accessible to us.

當我們這樣做時，我認為我們將更容易獲得口腔護理業務的全部機會。

Even in high penetration markets like in Europe, lowering the price point with iO 2 will give us access to more consumers.

即使在歐洲等高滲透率市場，透過 iO 2 降低價格也能讓我們接觸更多消費者。

We have a very strong marketing campaign building on the -- inside that power oral care removes 100% of plaque, while manual brushing only removes 50% of plaque.

我們有一個非常強大的行銷活動，其基礎是——強力口腔護理可以去除 100% 的牙菌斑，而手動刷牙只能去除 50% 的牙菌斑。

That seems to resonate well with consumers.

這似乎引起了消費者的共鳴。

We also have the strongest taste innovation program, including heavy focus on whitening where we had an opportunity to strengthen.

我們還擁有最強的口味創新計劃，包括專注於我們有機會加強的美白。

So all of that gives me confidence that in the second half, we'll see acceleration.

因此，所有這些都讓我相信，在下半年，我們將看到加速。

Last point on Baby, the reason why we want to make investments on Baby, both in communication and potentially in promo, is due to innovation.

關於 Baby 的最後一點，我們之所以要在 Baby 上進行投資，無論是在溝通方面還是在促銷方面，都是出於創新。

We have talked for a while about the opportunity to continue to innovate across the entire lineup.

我們已經討論了在整個產品線中繼續創新的機會。

We've seen the Luvs innovation hit the market in September.

我們已經看到 Luvs 創新產品於 9 月上市。

We see sequential share growth on Luvs.

我們看到 Luvs 的份額連續增長。

So we want to give consumers the incentive and the opportunity to try those propositions, while continuing to drive the premium end of the portfolio, Swaddlers and Cruisers.

因此，我們希望為消費者提供嘗試這些主張的誘因和機會，同時繼續推動產品組合（襁褓包和漫步者）的高端產品。

So it's really about a combination of combining innovation with strong in-store visibility and incentive to try and strong communication to ensure consumers understand the benefit.

因此，這實際上是將創新與強大的店內可見性和嘗試激勵以及強有力的溝通相結合，以確保消費者了解其好處。

All of those, the foundation to create growth in Baby, which is one of the top categories to do so.

所有這些都是嬰兒成長的基礎，而嬰兒是實現這一目標的首要類別之一。

Olivia Tong, Raymond James.

唐奧立，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

-- A two-parter here.

——這裡有兩個人。

First on China, you mentioned you expect continued normalization.

首先關於中國，您提到您期望繼續實現正常化。

So how much of this is category growth versus your market share improvements as you cycle estimating comps?

那麼，當您循環估算比較時，其中有多少是品類成長與市佔率提升的關係呢？

And I ask that because comps aren't particularly demanding in second half, of course, but they do get a little less easy than the minus 15 that you're comping this quarter.

我這麼問是因為當然，下半場的比賽要求並不特別高，但他們確實比本季的負 15 比賽要容易一些。

And then just if you could talk briefly about the level of investment necessary to achieve your broader goals, not specific to China, but more broadly.

然後，請您簡要談談實現更廣泛目標所需的投資水平，不是針對中國，而是更廣泛的目標。

Does it have to go higher?

是否必須走得更高？

Or can you leverage many of the brand support investments that you talked about in answer to a different question that you've already made?

或者您可以利用您在回答您已經提出的另一個問題時談到的許多品牌支持投資嗎？

So Olivia, on China, what I'd tell you is I -- it's a bit of both, right?

奧莉維亞，關於中國，我要告訴你的是──兩者兼而有之，對嗎？

We would expect some improvement as the market cycles to more forgiving comps.

隨著市場週期轉向更寬容的競爭，我們預計會出現一些改善。

And we, for sure, would expect some improvement in our business.

我們當然希望我們的業務有所改善。

We talked about all the interventions we've made on innovation, on brand building, on go to market, including the distributor model that Jon elaborated on.

我們討論了我們在創新、品牌建立、進入市場方面所做的所有乾預措施，包括喬恩詳細闡述的經銷商模式。

So it's going to be a bit of both.

所以兩者都會有一點。

Unfortunately, a bit of both means we have two hard-to-predict elements here.

不幸的是，兩者兼有意味著我們這裡有兩個難以預測的元素。

So we hope this is going to result in a more neutral organic sales growth contribution of China in the back half, but we also are fully aware that this could go either way.

因此，我們希望這將導致中國下半年的有機銷售成長貢獻更加中性，但我們也充分意識到這可能會發生任何一種情況。

From an investment standpoint, my take on this would be, you see us adjusting based on the opportunity.

從投資的角度來看，我對此的看法是，我們會根據機會進行調整。

We have 30 basis points of incremental investment in the front half.

上半年我們有30個基點的增量投資。

That was more moderate than what you would have seen in the base period or even a couple of years before.

這比你在基期甚至幾年前看到的要溫和。

And some of the experimentation that we talked about and how far can we push frequency and reach, I think we concluded where it makes sense and where it doesn't make sense.

我們討論過的一些實驗以及我們可以將頻率和覆蓋範圍推到多遠，我認為我們得出了哪些地方有意義、哪些地方沒有意義的結論。

So we're now more clear on where that playbook goes.

所以我們現在更清楚該劇本的走向。

And we're focusing mostly now on optimizing within that playbook and improving content quality as we go into the half two innovation.

當我們進入一半的創新時，我們現在主要關注的是在該劇本中進行優化並提高內容品質。

So we will continue to invest where it makes sense, albeit probably at a slower pace than what we've seen in the last years.

因此，我們將繼續在有意義的地方進行投資，儘管速度可能比過去幾年還要慢。

Yeah.

是的。

I would just add a couple of things in response to your question, Olivia.

奧莉維亞，我只想補充幾件事來回答你的問題。

Just one bit for clarity, the minus 15 isn't what we're comping from an index standpoint.

為了清楚起見，負 15 並不是我們從指數角度進行比較的數值。

That's a sequential number last quarter, so just for clarity on that.

這是上個季度的連續數字，因此只是為了清楚起見。

The -- on -- in terms of investments and commercialization and advertising and other forms of marketing, I agree with what Andre said.

在投資、商業化、廣告和其他形式的行銷方面，我同意安德烈的說法。

At the same time, he talked about optimizing within that context.

同時，他談到了在此背景下的優化。

We're making significant strides to be more profitable in the fastest-growing categories -- or the fastest-growing channels in the country.

我們正在取得重大進展，以便在成長最快的類別或國內成長最快的管道中獲得更多利潤。

So while we will be opportunistic in investing, I expect as well we'll be saving.

因此，雖然我們會在投資上投機取巧，但我預計我們也會進行儲蓄。

For example, bringing the support of key opinion leaders in-house and utilizing some of our R&D of resources for that activity, that saves a bunch of money.

例如，在內部引入關鍵意見領袖的支持並利用我們的一些研發資源來進行該活動，可以節省大量資金。

And our testing shows that it's as or more effective.

我們的測試顯示它同樣有效或更有效。

So it's not as simple as the level of reach and frequency, which are important.

所以它並不像覆蓋率水平和頻率那麼簡單，這很重要。

But it's also the cost of delivering that, which we're working to bring down.

但這也是我們正在努力降低的交貨成本。

Kevin Grundy, BNP Paribas.

凱文·格倫迪，法國巴黎銀行。

I'd like to pivot to capital allocation, two-part question.

我想談談資本配置這個由兩部分組成的問題。

One, just updated thoughts on appropriateness of M&A as a potential avenue to drive shareholder value and what looks like it's going to be a slower growth environment here.

第一，剛剛更新了關於併購作為推動股東價值的潛在途徑的適當性的最新想法，以及這裡的成長環境似乎將放緩。

And then two, with respect to buyback, consumer staples stock, including Procter's, have underperformed the market.

其次，就回購而言，包括寶潔公司在內的消費必需品股票的表現遜於市場。

Valuations are below historical averages versus the S&P 500.

與標準普爾 500 指數相比，估值低於歷史平均。

In that sort of context, has there been any school of thought internally to accelerate the pace of share repurchases as an avenue to drive shareholder value?

在這種背景下，內部是否有任何學派可以加快股票回購的步伐，以此作為推動股東價值的途徑？

I'll take the -- thanks, Kevin.

我會接受——謝謝，凱文。

I'll take the M&A question.

我來回答併購問題。

Andre can add to it and then move to share repurchase question.

安德烈可以添加它，然後轉移到共享回購問題。

The answer is the same as it's been for some period of time here, which is that it starts with -- in most of our categories, we wouldn't contemplate acquisition being part of the growth model in kind of any economic environment simply because our market positions is typically the number 1, and sometimes both the number 1 and number 2 brands, would preclude any acquisition of any size.

答案與這裡一段時間以來的情況相同，那就是，在我們的大多數類別中，我們不會考慮將收購作為任何經濟環境中成長模式的一部分，僅僅因為我們的市場地位通常是第一，有時第一和第二品牌都會阻礙任何規模的收購。

There are two categories that we compete in that are attractive, that we like, that are much more fragmented in their current constitution, and we've talked about those before.

我們競爭的兩個類別很有吸引力，我們喜歡，但在當前的構成中更加分散，我們之前已經討論過這些。

One is Personal Health Care; another is Skin, and other part is specialty beauty.

一是個人醫療保健；另一個是皮膚，其他部分是專業美容。

We don't -- we're going to be -- continue to be extraordinarily responsible in regard to pursuit of any potential acquisitions.

我們不會——我們將會——繼續對尋求任何潛在的收購承擔特別的責任。

We don't engage in hostile attempts.

我們不進行敵對企圖。

So basically, assets have to be available, and then we have to be able to make sense of the purchase of that asset in a way that leaves us highly confident that we can create value.

所以基本上，資產必須可用，然後我們必須能夠以一種讓我們對創造價值充滿信心的方式理解購買該資產的意義。

So that's kind of it from an M&A standpoint.

從併購的角度來看，這就是這樣的情況。

Before I turn it over to Andre, just one comment on share repurchases.

在我把它交給安德烈之前，我只想對股票回購發表一點評論。

As Andre said in his prepared remarks, we're going to be returning between dividend and share repurchase of $16 billion to $17 billion to shareholders this year.

正如安德烈在他準備好的演講中所說，今年我們將在股息和股票回購之間向股東返還 160 億至 170 億美元。

And as a general element of our capital allocation approach, I would expect significant cash return to shareholders to continue to play prominently.

作為我們資本配置方法的一般要素，我預期股東的大量現金回報將繼續發揮重要作用。

But with that, I'll turn it over to Andre.

但這樣的話，我會把它交給安德烈。

Agree with everything you said on M&A, Jon.

同意你關於併購所說的一切，喬恩。

It's nice not to have to do it.

不必這樣做真是太好了。

So we can do it if it makes sense.

因此，如果有意義的話，我們就可以做到。

On the capital allocation, Kevin, nothing new here.

關於資本配置，凱文，這並不是什麼新鮮事。

We will continue to aggressively fund the growth in the business.

我們將繼續積極為業務成長提供資金。

We will continue to pay the dividend, likely increase the dividend.

我們將繼續支付股息，並可能增加股息。

We will do M&A if we find a target that makes sense and is willing to play.

如果我們找到一個有意義並且願意參與的目標，我們就會進行併購。

And the rest goes to shareholders in share repurchase.

其餘的則透過股票回購的方式返還給股東。

That's really the simple logic that we apply.

這確實是我們應用的簡單邏輯。

So it's an outcome rather than a target.

所以這是一個結果而不是目標。

And we don't -- there isn't a lot of, if you will, publicity about a special share repurchase program or a newly approved share repurchase program.

我們沒有——如果你願意的話，沒有太多關於特別股票回購計劃或新批准的股票回購計劃的宣傳。

And why is that?

這是為什麼呢？

It's because we do it every year, and we do it at the highest levels we can.

這是因為我們每年都會這樣做，而且我們會盡最大努力做到這一點。

And as Andre said, we'll continue to pursue that approach.

正如安德烈所說，我們將繼續採用這種方法。

Mark Astrachan, Stifel.

馬克·阿斯特拉坎，斯蒂菲爾。

Two quick ones.

兩個快的。

Just remind us on the approach to offset FX pressures were pronounced in places like LatAm, where the dollar has strengthened via pricing.

只是提醒我們，在拉丁美洲等地，美元透過定價走強，因此採取了抵銷外匯壓力的方法。

And then just returning to SK-II.

然後就回到SK-II。

It seems a little bit like the performance was a little bit better than anticipated at Investor Day, where I think Alex has highlighted Mainland China improvement would suggest, obviously, China a little bit weaker at the time, but your commentary would suggest otherwise.

看起來有點像投資者日的表現比預期的好一點，我認為亞歷克斯強調了中國大陸的改善，顯然，中國當時有點弱，但你的評論卻表明情況並非如此。

I guess, is it part of the improvement that the Chinese consumer perception of the brand, the geopolitics angle, that improved?

我想，這是華人消費者對品牌的認知、地緣政治角度的改善的一部分嗎？

Is it category improvement?

是品類提升嗎？

Is it both?

兩者都是嗎？

Just any color there would be helpful.

任何顏色都會有幫助。

Mark, approach on foreign exchange is not different.

馬克，外匯交易的方法沒有什麼不同。

So I just want to confirm, we will -- in Enterprise Markets mainly, there's a relatively good market discipline to price for foreign exchange rate.

所以我想確認一下，我們將——主要在企業市場，對外匯定價有相對良好的市場紀律。

We want to be part of that.

我們希望成為其中的一部分。

And we will combine pricing with innovation wherever that's possible and reasonable.

我們將盡可能合理地將定價與創新結合。

That approach has worked well in Europe Enterprise Markets, in LatAm and across AMA, and we'll continue to follow that playbook.

這種方法在歐洲企業市場、拉丁美洲和 AMA 中效果良好，我們將繼續遵循該策略。

On SK-II, you're right.

在SK-II上，你是對的。

I think it's actually good to see the brand strengthening with the China consumer.

我認為看到該品牌在中國消費者中的地位不斷增強實際上是件好事。

Number one, the whole dynamic of Japanese brand sentiment, I think, is easing.

第一，我認為日本品牌情緒的整體動態正在緩和。

We, most importantly I think, have made significant investments in brand building.

我認為最重要的是，我們在品牌建立方面進行了大量投資。

As soon as we were able to get back into broad media coverage, we've done so with very strong amplification of the benefit and the efficacy of the product, which has worked well.

一旦我們能夠重新獲得廣泛的媒體報道，我們就大力放大了產品的好處和功效，效果很好。

We've upgraded our department store presence, both from a counter standpoint and from a personnel standpoint, to ensure that consumers can see us, find us at high-quality locations.

我們從櫃檯和人員的角度都升級了百貨公司的形象，以確保消費者可以在高品質的地點看到我們、找到我們。

And we've innovated.

我們已經創新。

We've launched a super-premium proposition called LXP, which is doing very well in the market and, again, is contributing to the brand equity that we want to build and reestablish.

我們推出了名為 LXP 的超高端產品，該產品在市場上表現出色，並且再次為我們想要建立和重建的品牌資產做出了貢獻。

So all of that is contributing.

所以所有這些都在做出貢獻。

And the last element, I would say -- I would tell you is consumption is actually stronger than organic sales.

我想說的最後一個因素是——我會告訴你，消費實際上比有機銷售更強勁。

Specifically in travel retail, the sales number is still negative, but the consumption continues to return, in line with Jon's earlier comments that we also see increased Chinese travel to different locations.

特別是在旅遊零售領域，銷售數字仍然為負，但消費繼續回升，這與喬恩先前的評論一致，即我們也看到中國人前往不同地點的旅行有所增加。

So generally, I think more positive outlook on SK-II.

所以總的來說，我認為SK-II的前景比較樂觀。

You're right then what we would have given at Investor Day.

你是對的，我們會在投資者日給的。

And just to build a little bit on that, the SK-II, you never know how -- you've got this cross current of geopolitical sentiment and brand sentiment, as you rightly point out in your question.

在此基礎上，SK-II，你永遠不知道如何——你會遇到地緣政治情緒和品牌情緒的交叉流，正如你在問題中正確指出的那樣。

The geopolitical dynamic, one of the ways we track that in terms of how it affects consumer behavior is through social media references.

地緣政治動態，我們追蹤地緣政治動態如何影響消費者行為的方式之一是透過社群媒體參考。

And those are down significantly in terms of -- so in other words, the number of positive comments is much higher than the number of negative comments, and that's continued to improve.

換句話說，正面評論的數量遠高於負面評論的數量，而且這種情況還在持續改善。

So yes, as Andre confirmed, that is an improvement.

所以，是的，正如安德烈所證實的那樣，這是一個進步。

There is part of what's going on.

這是正在發生的事情的一部分。

The -- but the branding part is -- that he also mentioned is an equally significant component, which he suggested.

他也提到，品牌部分是一個同樣重要的組成部分，他建議也是如此。

If you look at the premium Skin Care segment right now, SK-II is the fastest-growing brand within that segment.

如果你看看現在的高端保養品市場，你會發現 SK-II 是該市場中成長最快的品牌。

Now growth on SK-II is going to be strange to follow simply because of the base period dynamics.

現在，僅僅因為基期動態，SK-II 的成長將變得奇怪。

But -- so the important thing to look at is what's happening to consumption trends quarter-on-quarter.

但是，所以重要的是要關注季度消費趨勢的變化。

And as Andre indicated, that's given us some confidence.

正如安德烈所說，這給了我們一些信心。

Kaumil Gajrawala, Jefferies.

考米爾·加吉拉瓦拉，傑弗里斯。

I know to Chris' question, you answered for a few different categories.

我知道克里斯的問題，你回答了幾個不同的類別。

But if we can maybe dig in a little bit more on consumer health or Health Care.

但如果我們可以更專注於消費者健康或醫療保健。

It's -- the comp was a bit easier.

這是——比較容易一些。

It slowed down a little bit.

它放慢了一點。

If just anything in there that we should be aware about, interesting to know.

如果其中有什麼我們應該注意的，有趣的事情。

The trends there year-to-year, quarter-to-quarter are most impacted by the cough/cold season, which really hasn't existed significantly, at least through the month of December, which is the period of time that we're reporting results for currently.

每年、每季的趨勢受咳嗽/感冒季節的影響最大，而咳嗽/感冒季節實際上並沒有顯著存在，至少在 12 月是這樣，這是我們正在研究的時間段。

We continue to be very happy about the growth delivery and the growth prospects for the broader PHC business and have brands outside of the cough/cold space that are growing very well.

我們仍然對更廣泛的初級保健業務的成長交付和成長前景感到非常高興，並且在咳嗽/感冒領域之外的品牌也成長得非常好。

By the way, within the cough/cold space, we continue to build share.

順便說一句，在咳嗽/感冒領域，我們繼續建立份額。

So that's kind of what's going on.

這就是正在發生的事情。

And I don't want to wish for illness, but that's -- less illness, we'll have slower growth.

我不想希望生病，但那就是──疾病越少，我們的成長就會越慢。

More illness, we'll have higher growth.

疾病越多，我們的成長就會越高。

Our family is contributing heavily to that growth, by the way.

順便說一句，我們的家庭為這種成長做出了巨大貢獻。

And I'm sitting right next to you.

我就坐在你旁邊。

That's not good.

那不好。

Edward Lewis, Redburn Atlantic.

愛德華‧劉易斯，《雷德伯恩大西洋》。

Yeah.

是的。

I just wanted to, I guess, look at the components of the focus on superiority plan, particularly on the consumer value side.

我想，我只是想看看專注於優勢計劃的組成部分，特別是在消費者價值方面。

So I look at this quarter, it's another quarter of -- it's flat pricing.

所以我看看這個季度，這是另一個季度——它的定價是固定的。

But if I look back over, say, the last three years, on average, pricing is still up around 4%.

但如果我回顧過去三年，平均價格仍上漲 4% 左右。

And you're clearly getting positive volumes.

很明顯，您獲得了正銷量。

So I wonder if you just talk to sort of what the consumer value side of the focus on superiority is telling you and whether we should then -- whether you should have confidence about possibly being able to take more pricing sort of -- in subsequent quarters or years with the evidence you're seeing from the data you're getting from the focus on superiority plan.

因此，我想知道您是否只是談論關注優勢的消費者價值方面告訴您的內容，以及我們是否應該——您是否應該對在接下來的幾個季度中可能採取更多定價有信心或數年，您從專注於優勢計劃中獲得的數據中看到的證據。

I think we will be taking more pricing as we move forward as we bring more -- as we bring innovation that produces a more efficacious product and a better experience to consumers.

我認為，隨著我們不斷前進，隨著我們帶來更多創新，為消費者帶來更有效的產品和更好的體驗，我們將採取更多的定價。

The data that you referenced do indicate to us that we have the ability with that combination to continue contributing to the top line through a modest amount of pricing.

您引用的數據確實向我們表明，我們有能力透過這種組合繼續透過適度的定價為營收做出貢獻。

Linda Bolton-Weiser, D.A. Davidson.

琳達·博爾頓·韋瑟，D.A.戴維森。

You've talked quite a bit about Beauty in China.

您已經談論了很多關於中國之美的話題。

And certainly, the SK-II improvement is contributing to that Beauty improvement we saw in the quarter.

當然，SK-II 的改進有助於我們在本季看到的美容改進。

But I was curious about the US side of it and whether what you're doing in Olay in the US, like focusing more on Regenerist as a core grower, if that's paying any benefits in terms of market share changes.

但我很好奇美國方面的情況，以及你在美國玉蘭油所做的事情，例如更多地關注 Regenerist 作為核心種植者，是否在市場份額變化方面帶來了任何好處。

And also just on Beauty overall.

也只是在整體美感上。

I was a little curious why volume was actually down 1% for the whole segment for you, where volume had been sort of flat to up in the previous quarters.

我有點好奇為什麼整個細分市場的銷量實際上下降了 1%，而前幾季的銷量一直持平到上升。

Linda, look, let me start with North America, and it's similar.

琳達，聽著，讓我從北美開始，它很相似。

Beauty is -- it's a story of pockets of real strength and some pockets of opportunity.

美麗是——這是一個關於一些真正的力量和一些機會的故事。

And that's true for North America and the globe.

對於北美和全球都是如此。

If you look at our antiperspirant and deodorant business in the U.S., it's growing 11%.

如果你看看我們在美國的止汗劑和除臭劑業務，你會發現它成長了 11%。

And we are the number 1 whole body segment brand -- or have the number 1 position across our brands in that whole body segment.

我們是全身細分市場排名第一的品牌，或者說我們的品牌在該全身細分市場中擁有排名第一的位置。

Personal Care North America is growing 16%.

北美個人護理品成長了 16%。

So again, real source of strength.

再說一遍，真正的力量泉源。

Hair Care North America is up 3% on a base of [15%], so real strength.

北美護髮產品在 [15%] 的基礎上上漲了 3%，實力強勁。

You point out Skin Care is an opportunity.

您指出皮膚護理是一個機會。

Skin Care is down in North America double digits, and we are working to increase the innovation specifically on the jar business.

北美的護膚品銷量下降了兩位數，我們正在努力加強罐裝業務的創新。

The new innovation that we've launched, so Olay Melts and Super Serum, those are doing very well.

我們推出的新創新產品，玉蘭油融化和超級精華液，都表現得非常好。

But they are just not big enough yet to offset the decline in the core business of jars, where we saw some distribution changes in the club channel, but also, I think, a shift in consumer benefit space that we need to address.

但它們還不夠大，不足以抵消罐子核心業務的下滑，我們看到俱樂部管道的一些分銷變化，而且我認為，我們需要解決消費者利益空間的轉變。

Similarly, at the globe, same logic, strength on APDO, strength on Personal Care, strength on Hair Care with an opportunity on Skin Care.

同樣，在全球範圍內，同樣的邏輯，APDO 優勢，個人護理優勢，護髮優勢，以及皮膚護理機會。

And again, same dynamic there.

再說一遍，同樣的動態。

The only point I'll call out in China, for example, the Olay brand has been historically focused on tone benefit.

例如，我在中國要指出的唯一一點是，玉蘭油品牌歷來專注於色調效果。

The market is shifting more towards anti-aging or multi-benefit product.

市場正在更多地轉向抗衰老或多功效產品。

And so we've launched innovation there, which is going in that direction.

因此，我們在那裡啟動了創新，正朝著這個方向發展。

So work to do on Skin Care.

所以要努力做好皮膚護理。

Real strength across the other categories within Beauty.

美容領域其他類別的真正實力。

Relative to your question on volume, Linda, China -- Beauty broadly has a higher presence in China than any of our other categories.

相對於你關於數量的問題，琳達（中國）－美容品在中國的佔有率比我們任何其他類別都高。

And we're still not out of the woods, we'll use that expression again, on volume in China.

我們還沒有走出困境，我們將在中國的銷售中再次使用這個表達方式。

So while sales were 3, I believe, volume was minus 6.

因此，雖然銷售額為 3，但我相信銷量為 -6。

I feel comfortable that's going to continue to improve.

我感到很舒服，這將繼續改善。

But when you look at Beauty volumes, you have to realize that China weighting, which in many periods has been a very positive thing, but now presents a challenge.

但當你看美容卷時，你必須意識到中國的權重，這在許多時期都是非常積極的事情，但現在提出了挑戰。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科，TD·考恩。

Yes.

是的。

My

我的

-- .

——。

I wanted to ask about pricing in a different way.

我想以不同的方式詢問定價。

This is the first quarter where pricing has been flat in many quarters.

這是第一季定價在許多季度都持平。

And is there any scenario you could imagine where pricing turns negative?

您是否可以想像定價變成負值的情況？

Or is there just the line in the sand here where that just won't happen?

或者是否只是存在一條界限，這種情況不會發生？

And then secondly, on mix, mix is positive, and I want to know what's driving that.

其次，在混合方面，混合是積極的，我想知道是什麼推動了這一點。

Is it geographic?

是地理因素嗎？

Can we assume that if Europe and US continue to outperform, will that be positive to your mix?

我們是否可以假設，如果歐洲和美國繼續表現出色，這會對您的組合產生積極影響嗎？

Or is there something within the categories that's driving instead?

或者類別中是否有什麼東西在推動？

I can start.

我可以開始了。

Jon, jump in, please.

喬恩，請跳進去。

So price is an outcome that consistently helps our organic sales growth number.

因此，價格是持續幫助我們有機銷售成長的結果。

I think Jon mentioned this, 54 out of 57 quarters positive contribution of price/mix to our organic sales growth.

我想 Jon 提到過這一點，57 個季度中有 54 個季度價格/組合對我們的有機銷售成長做出了積極貢獻。

And the timing of pricing outside of foreign exchange rate pricing or heavy commodity cycles, which has driven a lot of the pricing in the base period, is mostly driven by our innovation cycle because we like, and we tend to take pricing with innovation.

匯率定價或大宗商品週期之外的定價時機，在基期推動了許多定價，主要是由我們的創新週期驅動的，因為我們喜歡，而且我們傾向於採用創新定價。

And that just falls in different quarters.

這只是落在不同的方面。

But generally, that effect of modest pricing with inflation or foreign exchange rate in Enterprise Markets and pricing for innovation is driving that consistent contribution of pricing to our organic sales growth numbers and will continue to do so.

但總的來說，企業市場中通貨膨脹或外匯匯率的適度定價以及創新定價的影響正在推動定價對我們的有機銷售成長數字的持續貢獻，並將繼續這樣做。

What is driving mix here?

這裡的驅動因素是什麼？

I would focus less on geographic mix.

我會較少關注地理組合。

I think what we're seeing is trade up within our categories.

我認為我們所看到的是我們類別內的交易升級。

And you see that impacting the top line positively and impacting the gross margin line negatively.

您會發現這對營收產生了正面影響，但對毛利率產生了負面影響。

So as consumers trade up from liquid laundry detergent into unit dose or even within unit dose to the highest performing variants, they pay more per unit, and we make more profit per unit, but mathematically, the gross margin is lower.

因此，當消費者從液體洗衣粉升級為單位劑量，甚至單位劑量內的最高性能變體時，他們為每單位支付更多費用，我們每單位賺取更多利潤，但從數學上講，毛利率較低。

That's really the effect you see on the top line, positive effect of mix on the gross margin line, the slightly negative effect of mix, which is exactly what we want.

這確實是您在營收上看到的效果，混合對毛利率的正面影響，混合的輕微負面影響，這正是我們想要的。

So healthy dynamics on both.

兩者都是健康的動態。

We expect both of those, the pricing dynamic with innovation and the mix dynamic, to continue.

我們預計，創新的定價動態和混合動態將持續下去。

And we're going to -- there is no straight line or red line on pricing.

我們將——定價上沒有直線或紅線。

We're going to do what maximizes -- we make the choices that maximize value, and we'll be responsive to consumer needs in that context.

我們將做最大化價值的事情——我們做出價值最大化的選擇，並且我們將在這種情況下響應消費者的需求。

But I don't think, in all the time that I've been working on this business, I've ever thought about the question of would we have negative pricing.

但我認為，在我從事這項業務的所有時間裡，我從未考慮過我們是否會出現負定價的問題。

It's just not part of our thought process.

這不是我們思考過程的一部分。

We're focused on value creation.

我們專注於價值創造。

And as Andre said, pricing is kind of an outcome of that series of decisions.

正如安德烈所說，定價是這一系列決策的結果。

Korinne Wolfmeyer, Piper Sandler.

科琳·沃爾夫邁耶，派珀·桑德勒。

I just want to touch a little bit on how you're feeling about -- or how your conversations with some of your retail partners have been going really across the globe.

我只是想談談您的感受，或者您與一些零售合作夥伴的對話在全球範圍內進行得如何。

What are the confidence levels you're feeling with them?

您對他們的信心程度如何？

Are they still being cautious of inventory orders?

他們還在對庫存訂單持謹慎態度嗎？

Is that more normalized?

這樣是不是比較常態化了？

And then how are you thinking about that heading into the back half of the fiscal year?

那麼您如何看待本財年後半段的情況呢？

So I just spent time with two of my counterparts, who are CEOs of large European retailers.

所以我剛剛和我的兩位同行一起度過了一段時間，他們是歐洲大型零售商的執行長。

I had a top-to-top meeting with the largest customer outside of the US just yesterday.

就在昨天，我與美國以外最大的客戶舉行了高層會議。

The entirety of those conversations is focused on market growth and how, as we pursue market growth, we can do that most efficiently.

所有這些對話都集中在市場成長以及在我們追求市場成長時如何最有效地做到這一點。

So working together, we call it one supply chain to figure out how -- and there's a lot of power in that because it's -- we used to optimize parts of this -- of our respective supply chains.

因此，透過共同努力，我們稱之為供應鏈，以弄清楚我們各自的供應鏈如何——這其中有很大的力量，因為我們過去常常優化其中的一部分。

But bringing that view all together has produced significant results, both for ourselves and our retail partners.

但將這些觀點結合起來已經為我們自己和我們的零售合作夥伴產生了重大成果。

So right now, the conversation is very positive generally and focuses on the opportunities that we have in front of us.

所以現在，對話總體上是非常積極的，重點是我們面前的機會。

In the US, so those -- that's kind of Europe.

在美國，那就是歐洲。

In the US, in the retail environment currently, you have some retailers who are doing extraordinarily well and some retailers and channels of trade that have more challenges.

在美國，目前的零售環境中，有些零售商做得非常好，但也有一些零售商和貿易通路面臨更多挑戰。

And you can imagine that the conversations are slightly different across that universe of customers.

您可以想像，整個客戶群中的對話略有不同。

But in general, it follows the same pattern that I just described for Europe.

但總的來說，它遵循我剛才為歐洲描述的相同模式。

All right.

好的。

I think that concludes our call.

我想我們的通話到此結束。

Again, in summary, good quarter, good progress across multiple geographies, cautiously optimistic with a lot of moving pieces throughout the second half.

總而言之，本季表現良好，多個地區都取得了良好進展，下半年出現了許多變化，持謹慎樂觀態度。

Thanks for your time today.

感謝您今天抽出時間。

We're available for any follow-up questions, so please don't hesitate to reach out.

我們可以解答任何後續問題，因此請隨時與我們聯繫。

And have a great rest of the day.

並度過愉快的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。