寶潔 (PG) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter-end conference call. Today's event is being recorded for replay.

早安，歡迎參加寶潔公司的季度末電話會議。今天的事件正在錄製以供重播。

This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections.

此次討論將包括一些前瞻性陳述。如果您參考寶潔公司最新的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告，您將看到可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測有重大差異的因素的討論。

As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends, and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

根據 G 條例的要求，寶潔公司需要讓您意識到，在討論過程中，公司將多次提及非 GAAP 和其他財務指標。寶潔公司認為，這些指標為投資者提供了有關基本業務趨勢的有用視角，並在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了非 GAAP 財務指標的全面對帳。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

現在我將把電話轉交給寶潔公司財務長安德烈‧舒爾滕 (Andre Schulten)。

Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today is John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

大家早安。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是投資人關係資深副總裁 John Chevalier。

Execution of our integrated strategy delivered another quarter of solid earnings and cash results. These results enable us to maintain our guidance ranges for fiscal year '25. Organic sales grew 2% comparing against the strong base period of 7% growth. Volume contributed 1 point to organic sales growth. Pricing added 1 point, and mix was roughly in line with prior year.

我們綜合策略的執行又帶來了一個季度穩健的獲利和現金業績。這些結果使我們能夠維持 25 財年的指導範圍。與基期 7% 的強勁成長相比，有機銷售額成長了 2%。銷量為有機銷售額成長貢獻了 1 個百分點。定價增加了 1 個百分點，且結構與去年大致一致。

8 of 10 product categories grew or held organic sales for the quarter. Family care, home care, and personal healthcare each grew mid-single digits. Hair care, oral care, feminine care, fabric care, and grooming grew low singles. Baby care and skin and personal care were down mid-singles.

本季 10 個產品類別中有 8 個類別的有機銷售額有所成長或維持不變。家庭護理、家庭護理和個人醫療保健均實現中個位數成長。頭髮護理、口腔護理、女性護理、織物護理和美容單品銷售量較低。嬰兒護理、皮膚和個人護理的銷售量下降到中單。

Organic sales in focus markets grew 2%, and enterprise markets were up 1%. Organic sales in North America grew 4%, driven by 4 points of volume growth. Over the last five quarters, North America has grown organic sales 7%, 5%, 3%, 4% and now again 4% on volume growth between 3% and 4% each of those quarters. The region delivered broad-based market share growth this quarter. with 8 of 10 categories holding or growing volume share and 9 of 10 categories holding or growing value share.

重點市場的有機銷售額成長 2%，企業市場成長 1%。在銷量成長 4 個百分點的推動下，北美的有機銷售額成長了 4%。在過去的五個季度中，北美地區的有機銷售額增長了 7%、5%、3%、4%，現在又增長了 4%，每個季度的銷量增長在 3% 到 4% 之間。該地區本季的市場份額實現了廣泛的增長。 10 個類別中有 8 個保持或成長數量份額，10 個類別中有 9 個保持或成長價值份額。

Europe focus markets organic sales were up 3%. This compares against 50% organic sales growth in the base period and includes a 2-point headwind from lower inventory versus the base period. Volume was up 4 points despite the base period inventory impacts. Over the last five quarters, Europe focus markets have grown organic sales an average of nearly 7% on volume growth of 3%.

歐洲重點市場有機銷售額成長 3%。相比之下，基期 50% 的有機銷售成長，並且包括與基期相比較低的庫存帶來的 2 個百分點的阻力。儘管受到基期庫存影響，成交量仍增加 4 個百分點。過去五個季度，歐洲重點市場的有機銷售額平均成長近 7%，銷量成長 3%。

Latin America organic sales were up low single digits against the strong 19% base period calm. Brazil grew mid-singles, and Mexico was in line with prior year. Each of these markets comparing against strong 14% growth in the base period.

與基期 19% 的強勁平靜相比，拉丁美洲的有機銷售額增長了低個位數。巴西的成長達到中單，墨西哥則與去年持平。這些市場在基期均實現了 14% 的強勁成長。

European enterprise markets grew mid-singles driven by pricing to offset inflation and currency devaluation impacts in addition to modest volume growth. Greater China organic sales declined 15%. Underlying market conditions weakened further during the quarter, and we continue to face brand-specific headwinds on SK-II. We will begin to annualize some of the steep market declines and SK-II headwinds late in December, though it will likely be a few more quarters until we return to growth in China.

除了銷售適度成長之外，歐洲企業市場在定價的推動下實現了中單成長，以抵消通貨膨脹和貨幣貶值的影響。大中華區有機銷售額下降 15%。本季基本市場狀況進一步疲軟，我們持續面臨 SK-II 品牌特定的阻力。我們將在 12 月底開始對一些市場急劇下滑和 SK-II 不利因素進行年度化，儘管可能還需要幾個季度才能在中國恢復成長。

Market conditions in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Africa region have remained soft, with organic sales down low singles. Global aggregate value share grew 10 basis points, with 28 of our top 50 category country combinations holding a growing share for the quarter.

亞太、中東、非洲地區的市場狀況依然疲軟，有機銷量下降至低點。全球總價值份額增加了 10 個基點，本季排名前 50 的國家組合中有 28 個所佔份額不斷增長。

On the bottom line, core earnings per share were $1.93, up 5% versus prior year. On a currency neutral basis, core EPS increased 4%. Core growth margin was in line with prior year, and core operating margin increased 30 basis points, strong productivity improvement of 230 basis points. Currency-neutral core operating margin decreased 10 basis points.

每股核心獲利為 1.93 美元，比上年增長 5%。在貨幣中性的基礎上，核心每股盈餘成長了 4%。核心成長利潤率與去年持平，核心營業利潤率成長了 30 個基點，生產力大幅提高了 230 個基點。貨幣中性核心營業利潤率下降 10 個基點。

Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 82%, consistent with our expectations. We returned nearly $4.4 billion of cash to shareowners this quarter, over $2.4 billion in dividends, and over $1.9 billion in share repurchases.

調整後自由現金流生產力為 82%，與我們的預期一致。本季我們向股東返還了近 44 億美元的現金、超過 24 億美元的股息以及超過 19 億美元的股票回購。

To summarize results, solid top-line growth across roughly 85% of the business, keeping us on track for the fiscal year; continued volume and value share gains in North America; and improving share trends in Europe focus markets. Earnings and cash results in line with our expectations, also on track with fiscal-year guidance.

總結結果，大約 85% 的業務實現了穩健的營收成長，使我們在本財年保持在正軌上；北美地區的銷售和價值份額持續成長；歐洲重點市場的份額趨勢有所改善。獲利和現金結果符合我們的預期，也符合財政年度指引。

Overall, good performance in what continues to be a challenging economic and geopolitical environment, we will continue to push all levers in our control to offset the headwinds that are largely not in our control. We remain committed to the integrated strategy that has enabled strong results over the past six years, and that is the foundation for balanced growth and value creation.

總體而言，在仍然充滿挑戰的經濟和地緣政治環境中表現良好，我們將繼續運用我們控制範圍內的所有槓桿來抵消基本上不在我們控制範圍內的不利因素。我們仍然致力於在過去六年中取得強勁成果的綜合策略，這是平衡成長和價值創造的基礎。

We've made portfolio choices across markets and brands to strengthen our ability to generate US dollar-based returns. We are doubling down on superiority across all five vectors. And we are improving productivity in all areas of the operation to fuel investments in superiority, mitigate cost and currency headwinds, and drive margin expansion.

我們在不同市場和品牌之間做出了投資組合選擇，以增強我們產生以美元為基礎的回報的能力。我們正在加倍加強所有五個向量的優勢。我們正在提高所有營運領域的生產力，以推動優勢投資，減輕成本和貨幣阻力，並推動利潤率擴張。

We are driving constructive disruption of ourselves and our industry, a willingness to change, adapt, and create new trends, technologies, and capabilities that will shape the future of our industry and extend our competitive advantage. We are benefiting from an organization that is empowered, agile, and accountable.

我們正在推動對自己和我們的行業進行建設性顛覆，願意改變、適應和創造新的趨勢、技術和能力，從而塑造我們行業的未來並擴大我們的競爭優勢。我們受益於一個強大、敏捷且負責任的組織。

Our strategic choices on portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption, and organization reinforce and build on each other. And we remain confident in our strategy and in our ability to drive market growth and to deliver balanced growth and value creation. We will elaborate on the integrated strategy and how it's driving competitive advantage and results at our Investor Day in November.

我們在產品組合、優勢、生產力、建設性顛覆和組織的策略選擇相互加強、相互促進。我們對我們的策略以及推動市場成長、實現平衡成長和價值創造的能力充滿信心。我們將在 11 月的投資者日上詳細闡述綜合策略以及它如何推動競爭優勢和績效。

Now moving to guidance for fiscal 2025. With one quarter complete, our guidance ranges for fiscal 2025 remain unchanged. And they are consistent with our long-term algorithm. We continue to expect the environment around us to remain volatile and challenging from input costs to currencies to consumer, competitor, retailer, and geopolitical dynamics.

現在轉向 2025 財年的指引。它們與我們的長期演算法是一致的。我們仍然預計，我們周圍的環境將保持波動和挑戰，從投入成本到貨幣，再到消費者、競爭對手、零售商和地緣政治動態。

On the top line, we are maintaining our organic sales growth guidance in the range of 3% to 5%. We continue to expect the markets in which we compete to deliver local currency sales growth in the range of 3% to 4% for the year. And our objective remains to grow organic sales modestly ahead of the underlying growth of these markets.

在營收方面，我們將有機銷售成長指引維持在 3% 至 5% 的範圍內。我們繼續預計，我們競爭的市場今年以當地貨幣計算的銷售額將成長 3% 至 4%。我們的目標仍然是在這些市場的潛在成長之前適度成長有機銷售額。

As a reminder, when you're modeling all-in sales, please remember to include the impact of divestitures from last fiscal year. This was an 80-basis-point drag in quarter one and will also impact the balance of the fiscal year.

提醒一下，當您對總銷售額進行建模時，請記住包括上一財年資產剝離的影響。這對第一季來說是 80 個基點的拖累，也將影響本財年的平衡。

On the bottom line, our core EPS guidance range for fiscal '25 remains at plus 5% to 7% versus fiscal '24 of a core EPS base of $6.59. This guidance equates to a range of $6.91 to $7.05 per share. Our outlook for commodity costs and foreign exchange have each improved modestly since our initial guidance for the year.

總而言之，我們 25 財年的核心 EPS 指引範圍仍比 24 財年的 6.59 美元核心 EPS 成長 5% 至 7%。該指引相當於每股 6.91 美元至 7.05 美元的範圍。自從我們今年的初步指引以來，我們對大宗商品成本和外匯的前景均略有改善。

We are now guiding for a commodity cost headwind of approximately $200 million after tax, which equates to a headwind of $0.08 per share for fiscal '25. We are forecasting foreign exchange to be in line with prior year. We continue to expect lower non-operating income benefits this fiscal year and a somewhat higher tax rate versus prior year. Combined, these are additional $0.10 to $0.12 headwind to core EPS.

我們目前預計稅後商品成本逆風約 2 億美元，相當於 25 財年每股逆風 0.08 美元。我們預計外匯匯率將與去年持平。我們仍預期本財年的非營業收入效益將下降，稅率將比前一年提高。綜合起來，這些因素對核心每股收益造成了 0.10 美元至 0.12 美元的額外阻力。

We expect adjusted fee cash flow productivity of 90% for the year. We have plans to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase $6 billion to $7 billion in common stock, combined, returning $16 billion to [$7 billion] of cash to shareowners this fiscal year.

我們預計今年調整後的費用現金流生產力將為 90%。我們計劃支付約 100 億美元的股息，並回購 60 億至 70 億美元的普通股，總共在本財年向股東返還 160 億至 70 億美元的現金。

This outlook is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity prices, and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major supply chain disruptions or store closures are not anticipated within these guidance ranges.

這項展望是基於當前市場成長率估計、大宗商品價格和外匯匯率。在這些指導範圍內，預計不會出現貨幣大幅疲軟、商品成本增加、地緣政治幹擾、重大供應鏈中斷或商店關閉的情況。

To conclude, the earnings and cash results in the quarter keep us on track with our fiscal-year guidance ranges. And we are doubling down on all levers to accelerate growth in the coming quarters.

總而言之，本季的獲利和現金業績使我們符合財政年度指導範圍。我們將加倍利用所有槓桿，以加速未來幾季的成長。

We continue to believe the best path forward is excellent execution of our market constructive strategy, with a focus on balance top- and bottom-line growth and value creation, starting with a commitment to deliver irresistibly superior propositions to consumers and retail partners. Coupled with a strong productivity plan, the earnings power and value creation potential of the company, we believe, are as strong as ever.

我們仍然相信，最好的前進道路是出色地執行我們的市場建設性策略，重點是平衡頂線和底線成長以及價值創造，首先致力於向消費者和零售合作夥伴提供不可抗拒的卓越主張。我們相信，加上強大的生產力計劃，公司的獲利能力和價值創造潛力將一如既往地強大。

Finally, as I mentioned, we are hosting our 2024 Investor Day here in Cincinnati on November 21. And we hope you can join us in person or online. With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

最後，正如我所提到的，我們將於 11 月 21 日在辛辛那提舉辦 2024 年投資者日活動。這樣，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指令）Steve Powers，德意志銀行。

Thanks, and good morning, Andre. How are you? I guess to start, I think as we reflect on the quarter and really the last 12 months, I think it's fair to say you've been kind of continually surprised to the downside on the trajectory of growth. And obviously, markets like China and the Middle East have caused persistent challenges.

謝謝，早安，安德烈。你好嗎？我想首先，當我們回顧本季以及過去 12 個月時，我認為可以公平地說，您對成長軌蹟的下行趨勢感到驚訝。顯然，中國和中東等市場帶來了持續的挑戰。

The good news, as you suggested, is that we're going to start to lap those challenges. But rates of improvement are questionable, as you highlighted. And I think investors are somewhat fearful of -- that alongside that benefit of cycling the challenges, you'll start to have some more deceleration in markets where we had strength. The US and Europe focus markets are probably most pertinent.

正如您所建議的，好消息是我們將開始應對這些挑戰。但正如您所強調的那樣，改善率值得懷疑。我認為投資人有些擔心──除了應對挑戰的好處之外，我們擁有實力的市場也會開始出現更多的減速。美國和歐洲的重點市場可能是最相關的。

I guess, how do you assess those challenges? You called out the consistent outlook of market growth of 3% to 4%. That's relatively bullish on the dynamics I'm referencing. So what do you say to investors who are more concerned about deceleration from here in that underlying growth?

我想，您如何評估這些挑戰？您一致表示市場成長前景為 3% 至 4%。這對我所指的動態來說相對樂觀。那麼，您對那些更擔心潛在成長放緩的投資者有何看法？

Morning, Steve. Hope you're well. Yeah, let's maybe start with the years before we get into the acceleration on the quarters.

早安，史蒂夫。希望你一切都好。是的，讓我們從進入季度加速之前的幾年開始。

If you step back, we did deliver last year on guidance or above guidance for each of the metrics that we had outlined in our guidance: organic sales, core EPS, pre-cash flow, cash through shareowners. And as we had telegraphed in December, we saw these headwinds early on: China, SK-II, Nigeria, Argentina, the Middle East.

如果你退後一步，我們去年確實為我們在指導中概述的每個指標提供了指導或高於指導：有機銷售額、核心每股收益、預現金流、股東現金。正如我們在 12 月發出的電報，我們很早就看到了這些不利因素：中國、SK-II、奈及利亞、阿根廷、中東。

And despite those headwinds decelerating quarter-three and quarter-four top-line performance, we said we would deliver within guidance range, which we did. We also were clear that these headwinds would be with us through the front half of this fiscal year.

儘管這些不利因素導致第三季和第四季的營收表現下降，但我們表示，我們將在指導範圍內交付，我們也做到了。我們也清楚，這些不利因素將在本財年前半段持續存在。

So a slower top-line growth versus expected average for the fiscal year in the front half is not a surprise. It's actually what we expected within the guidance range. And that's, I think, the part of the guidance that was clear to us. As you rightly point out, I think the level of deceleration in the Middle East and in China, I think, is still volatile.

因此，與本財年上半年的預期平均值相比，營收成長放緩並不令人意外。這實際上是我們在指導範圍內所期望的。我認為，這就是我們清楚的指南部分。正如你正確指出的那樣，我認為中東和中國的減速程度仍然不穩定。

More importantly, if you look at the rest of the portfolio, if you look at US, Canada, Europe focus markets, Europe enterprise markets, Latin America, those regions constitute 85% of our sales base. And these regions, in aggregate, are growing 4% in quarter one on a 10% base on quarter one last year.

更重要的是，如果你看看產品組合的其餘部分，如果你看看美國、加拿大、歐洲重點市場、歐洲企業市場、拉丁美洲，這些地區構成了我們銷售基礎的 85%。這些地區在去年第一季 10% 的基礎上，第一季整體成長了 4%。

North America sales, over the past five quarters, were consistently up 7%, 5%, 3%, 4%, 4%. Europe is growing on a 7% average over the past five quarters, 3% of that from a volume growth standpoint. We are growing or holding volume share in all of these regions in aggregate. So I think the core of the business, 85% is as strong as we could wish for. It's growing 4%, and it's been growing at that pace significantly with very high base period comps.

過去五季北美銷售額持續成長 7%、5%、3%、4%、4%。過去五個季度，歐洲的平均成長率為 7%，其中從銷售成長的角度來看，成長率為 3%。我們正在增加或維持所有這些地區的銷售份額。所以我認為85%的業務核心已經達到我們所希望的程度了。它的增長率為 4%，並且一直以這種速度顯著增長，並且基期比較非常高。

The last thing I'll leave you with on the 85% of the business that is not impacted by any external factors, we have probably the strongest innovation out there in the second half, that we've seen in a long time. So a combination of very strong structures in each of these markets, very strong innovation in the second half, and easing comps in the base, give us confidence that we can see sustained growth and also some level of acceleration in the core of the business.

我要留給大家的最後一件事是，85% 的業務不受任何外部因素的影響，我們可能在下半年擁有我們很長一段時間以來看到的最強大的創新。因此，這些市場中非常強大的結構、下半年非常強大的創新以及基礎上寬鬆的競爭的結合，讓我們有信心看到核心業務的持續成長和一定程度的加速。

The volatility, as you pointed out, is entirely introduced by China and by the situation in the Middle East. And the way we think about the guidance is, if we annualize and when we annualize these base effects in quarter two and quarter three, we will get to the midpoint of guidance.

正如你所指出的，這種波動完全是中國和中東局勢所造成的。我們考慮指導的方式是，如果我們將第二季和第三季的這些基本效應進行年度化，我們將達到指導的中點。

If we see more than annualization and some level of improvement in the situation, that could get us to the top end of the guidance. When we see the situation continuing to decelerate, that would point to the lower end of the guidance.

如果我們看到的不僅僅是年度化以及情況有所改善，這可能會讓我們達到指導的最高水平。當我們看到情況繼續減速時，這將指向指導的下限。

That's the very simple logic. What you'll find in all of this is a strong belief that the core, 85%, will continue to grow in line with what we've seen and grow stronger with innovation in the back half.

這是非常簡單的邏輯。在所有這一切中，你會發現我們堅信，85% 的核心將繼續以我們所看到的方式成長，並透過後半部分的創新變得更加強大。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

勞倫·利伯曼，巴克萊銀行。

Great, thanks so much. So just to follow on Steve's thought process there, Andre, your response. We've heard more -- early days in earnings season. But there are a number of multinational companies that are calling out worsening trends.

太好了，非常感謝。那麼，請跟隨史蒂夫的思考過程，安德烈，你的回應。我們在財報季初期聽到了更多消息。但許多跨國公司都在呼籲日益惡化的趨勢。

So European consumer was particularly called out yesterday by Nestle; Latin America, a bit less good. And then of course China, I have to assume that that down 15 was a surprise to you guys this quarter.

因此昨天雀巢特別對歐洲消費者提出了批評；拉丁美洲，稍微差一點。當然還有中國，我必須假設本季下降 15 對你們來說是一個驚喜。

So just, what about the, I guess, risk factor around your point on that 85%? Because it doesn't feel like it leaves a lot of room for any kind of flowing in the macro environment, which just feels a little bit contrary to what we're hearing from some other consumer companies. Thanks.

那麼，我想，關於您關於 85% 的觀點的風險因素又如何呢？因為感覺它沒有為宏觀環境中的任何流動留下很大的空間，這與我們從其他一些消費公司聽到的情況有點相反。謝謝。

Good morning, Lauren. Yeah, I mean, when we talk about our consumer, we talk about the consumer in our categories. And we've chosen these categories for a reason. They are daily use. Consumers don't stop washing their hair. They don't stop doing their laundry.

早安，勞倫。是的，我的意思是，當我們談論消費者時，我們談論的是我們類別中的消費者。我們選擇這些類別是有原因的。它們是日常使用的。消費者不會停止洗頭。他們不會停止洗衣服。

And they are categories where the product performance is very important to consumers. Because they understand that the cost of failure is actually higher than maybe the premium they would pay for a product that promises to perform in line with what their expectations are.

在這些類別中，產品性能對消費者來說非常重要。因為他們明白，失敗的成本實際上可能高於他們為承諾性能符合他們期望的產品所支付的溢價。

And that logic, I think, leads to the consumer continuing to trade into P&G and continuing to trade up. And you see that in terms of share growth in the US. We consistently have grown share, both volume share and value share. We have consistently been able to trade consumers up within our portfolio, and we're bringing more innovation focused on stronger performance and increasing superiority across the different categories and brands.

我認為，這種邏輯會導致消費者繼續購買寶潔產品並繼續升級產品。你可以從美國的份額成長來看這一點。我們的份額不斷增長，無論是數量份額還是價值份額。我們一直能夠在我們的產品組合中吸引消費者，並且我們正在帶來更多創新，專注於更強大的性能並提高不同類別和品牌的優勢。

The same holds true for Europe. When you look at the growth rate in Europe in the last quarter, it was actually 5%, excluding the inventory effect year over year. And we are seeing stabilizing to growing volume share trends in Europe, again, with very strong innovation in the back half.

歐洲也是如此。當你看一下歐洲上個季度的成長率時，如果不包括同比的庫存影響，實際上是 5%。我們再次看到歐洲銷售份額趨勢的穩定成長，後半段的創新非常強勁。

Latin America is stabilizing. We've articulated that we're growing the biggest two markets, Brazil and Mexico, on a 14% base. And we expect within our construct that the Latin American market growth will return to mid-single digits, 5% to 6%, which is what we're seeing materialize.

拉丁美洲正在穩定。我們已經明確表示，我們正在以 14% 的速度實現最大的兩個市場巴西和墨西哥的成長。我們預計，在我們的框架內，拉丁美洲市場的成長將恢復到中個位數，即 5% 至 6%，這正是我們所看到的現實。

So every indication that we have in terms of data and in terms of the plans that the teams are executing now and into the second half, give us confidence that we can continue the momentum at the run rate level, which means with easing comps, it would mean an acceleration on a year-over-year comparison.

因此，我們在數據方面以及球隊現在和下半年正在執行的計劃方面所掌握的每一個跡象，都讓我們有信心我們可以在運行率水平上繼續保持這種勢頭，這意味著隨著寬鬆的競爭，它這意味著同比比較會加速。

Everything can change. There's no guarantee. But with everything that we can see, we feel confident that that component of 85% of the sales is holding or strengthening as we go through the year. You are right, China and the Middle East are the least predictable components. That's why they introduced the volatility in the guidance range at this point in time.

一切都可以改變。沒有任何保證。但從我們所看到的一切來看，我們有信心在這一年中，85% 的銷售額將保持不變或加強。你是對的，中國和中東是最不可預測的部分。這就是為什麼他們此時在指導範圍內引入波動性。

Look, the best way to increase the probability that we see improvement is to focus on the fundamentals, which we are doing. In China, we have cleared the portfolio to focus the organization on those brands we have the strongest growth potential.

看，增加我們看到改善的可能性的最佳方法是專注於我們正在做的基本面。在中國，我們已經清理了產品組合，將組織重點放在那些我們擁有最強成長潛力的品牌上。

We are reinventing our go-to-market model with our distributor partners to increase coverage and quality of coverage. We have strong innovation across the portfolio, which is showing signs of revitalizing the categories.

我們正在與經銷商合作夥伴一起重塑我們的進入市場模式，以提高覆蓋範圍和覆蓋品質。我們在整個產品組合中擁有強大的創新能力，這正顯示出振興這些類別的跡象。

When you look at the Head & Shoulders and Pantene innovation, the baby care portfolio continues to perform strongly. And SK-II is making progress with the launch of the super-premium proposition and beginning national marketing support again.

當你觀察海飛絲和潘婷的創新時，你會發現嬰兒護理產品組合持續表現強勁。隨著超高端主張的推出和再次開始全國行銷支持，SK-II正在取得進展。

So we're pointing in the right direction. The macro context is questionable, and we will have to see where this goes. The same is true for the Middle East. But that's why we have the range within the guidance.

所以我們指向正確的方向。宏觀背景值得懷疑，我們必須看看事態發展如何。中東也是如此。但這就是我們將範圍設定在指導範圍內的原因。

So overall, I think we're confident. You're right to point out there's a level of volatility here, which we hope we have adequately communicated.

總的來說，我認為我們有信心。您指出這裡存在一定程度的波動是正確的，我們希望我們對此進行了充分的溝通。

Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

達拉莫森尼安，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Hey, Dara.

嘿，達拉。

So just to follow up on this 85% of sales mix versus 15% dynamic. First, maybe on the 85%, obviously, the US is the lion's share of that. Can you just touch on what you think sustained category growth is here in the US in a moderate pricing environment from an industry perspective, as you look out over the next couple of years here?

因此，我們只需追蹤 85% 的銷售組合與 15% 的動態銷售組合即可。首先，也許在 85% 中，顯然美國佔了其中的最大份額。您能否從行業角度談談您對美國適度定價環境下的持續品類增長的看法，以及您對未來幾年的展望？

And I guess, you sound pretty confident in the market share momentum in the US. But maybe you can touch on that in a bit more detail. And then just on the laggard 15%, it's helpful -- the detail you gave us in terms of what a sequential improvement could mean or not mean going forward to corporate OSG.

我想，您聽起來對美國的市佔率勢頭非常有信心。但也許你可以更詳細地談談這一點。然後，就落後的 15% 而言，這是有幫助的——您向我們提供的關於連續改進可能意味著或不意味著繼續企業 OSG 的詳細資訊。

Just give us a little more sense of your perspective. The comps are much easier. Is the base case that there should be an inflection in that 15% going forward, with easier comps? I understand some of the volatility you mentioned. But just trying to get a sense of how you see that developing on the 15% of mix as you look out over the next few quarters here. Thanks.

請讓我們更多地了解您的觀點。比較容易得多。基本情況是，未來 15% 應該會出現變化，比較容易嗎？我理解你提到的一些波動性。但只是想了解一下，當您展望未來幾個季度時，您如何看待 15% 的組合的發展。謝謝。

Thank you, Dara. Let me start with the US and then maybe go a little bit broader. But the opportunity we see in the US is still huge. When you look at the categories in which we operate, we see sustained market growth in the range of 3% to 4% at this point.

謝謝你，達拉。讓我從美國開始，然後再更廣泛一些。但我們在美國看到的機會仍然巨大。當你看到我們經營的類別時，我們發現目前市場持續成長在 3% 到 4% 的範圍內。

It's decelerating, as we had expected, from the 5% to 6% range we saw in previous years as the pricing component comes down. But it's encouraging that the volume side is actually coming up strongly and is sustaining strong growth.

正如我們預期的那樣，隨著定價部分的下降，其增速正在從前幾年的 5% 到 6% 範圍內下降。但令人鼓舞的是，銷售量實際上正在強勁成長，並保持強勁成長。

So we expect the 3% to 4% range is where the market's going to be. But as you know, our job within that, the way we view it, is to continue to drive our category and continue to drive market growth beyond that 3% to 4% so we can grow ahead and we grow share.

因此，我們預期 3% 至 4% 的範圍是市場的發展方向。但如您所知，我們的工作是繼續推動我們的品類，並繼續推動市場成長超過 3% 至 4%，這樣我們就可以向前發展並增加份額。

The opportunity is in multiple dimensions. Number one, just looking at consumers that we don't serve yet at the full level at which we serve other consumer groups is about a $5 billion growth opportunity. And we're focusing on that by being more intentional about the benefits that these specific consumer groups are looking for, the way those benefits need to be addressed in a product solution, the way they need to be communicated to register with the consumer group, and where we need to be distributed in order to reach those consumers.

機會是多方面的。第一，只要看看我們尚未達到我們為其他消費者群體服務的全面水平的消費者，就可以獲得大約 50 億美元的成長機會。我們透過更有意識地關注這些特定消費者群體正在尋求的好處，在產品解決方案中需要解決這些好處的方式，以及向消費者群體註冊所需的溝通方式來關注這一點，以及我們需要分發到哪裡才能接觸到這些消費者。

Innovation in that space, both across product package, across communication, and across go to market, we believe, is a big driver of capturing that $5 billion growth opportunity. We have many categories that across the consumer base are still showing significant penetration opportunities.

我們相信，該領域的創新，無論是產品包、溝通或市場推廣，都是抓住 50 億美元成長機會的重要推動力。我們的許多類別在整個消費者群體中仍然顯示出巨大的滲透機會。

We frequently talk about fabric enhancers, more than $1 billion business. But household penetration is only about 30% on liquid fabric enhancers, only about 20% on beads. So there's a huge growth opportunity to drive more household penetration by, again, finding ways to make this proposition more appealing to more consumers.

我們經常談論織物增強劑，這是一個價值超過 10 億美元的業務。但液態織物增強劑的家庭滲透率僅 30% 左右，珠粒的家庭滲透率僅約 20%。因此，透過再次尋找方法使這一主張對更多消費者更具吸引力，存在著巨大的成長機會來推動更多家庭滲透。

Power oral care, big example of underpenetrated category, a new claim of -- we're having -- on our power oral care iO business, with 100% more plaque bacterial removal, that business is growing 8%. And the global share is up 2%. So there are many examples where we see growth opportunity in the US.

強力口腔護理是滲透不足類別的一個重要例子，我們對強力口腔護理 iO 業務提出了新的主張，牙菌斑細菌去除率提高了 100%，該業務增長了 8%。全球份額上升了 2%。因此，有許多例子表明我們在美國看到了成長機會。

The same is true for Europe. And maybe for perspectives, there are some markets in Europe that drag the performance down. France, for example, had a change in terms of legislation on how promotions can be executed in March of last year -- in March of this year, but last fiscal year.

歐洲也是如此。也許從角度來看，歐洲的一些市場拖累了業績。例如，法國從去年 3 月到今年 3 月，但在上一財年，就如何執行促銷活動的立法進行了修改。

And that has significantly impacted our performance in France, along with everybody else. So France is down 11%. Normalizing that will give us, on top of the same opportunity I described for the US, will lead to a level of acceleration that we expect.

這極大地影響了我們以及其他所有人在法國的表現。因此法國下降了 11%。除了我為美國描述的同樣機會之外，實現正常化也將為我們帶來我們預期的加速水平。

On the 15% of the business, again, our base assumption is that we simply annualize most of these effects. We see stabilization across categories. There are quarter-to-quarter effects in China that need to be taken into account with shifts in key consumption periods. But I think the general assumption is that we will, over the next couple of quarters, start to annualize both SK-II and the major China market contraction. And that will help towards the stabilization of the total.

對於 15% 的業務，我們的基本假設是我們只是對大部分影響進行年化。我們看到各個類別都趨於穩定。中國存在季度效應，需要考慮關鍵消費時段的變化。但我認為一般的假設是，我們將在接下來的幾季開始對 SK-II 和中國市場的主要收縮進行年化。這將有助於總量的穩定。

The same is true for the Middle East. Most important point I still want to make is, we're not just sitting there and waiting for the business to annualize. We're fundamentally improving every aspect of how we operate the business, from innovation to go-to-market to media, and both in the Middle East and in China.

中東也是如此。我仍然想說的最重要的一點是，我們不僅僅是坐在那裡等待業務年度化。我們正在從根本上改善業務運營的各個方面，從創新到進入市場再到媒體，無論是在中東還是在中國。

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

布萊恩·斯皮蘭，美國銀行。

Hey, thanks, operator. Good morning, Andre. Good morning, John. My question is just around the gross margins and the cost of goods sold inflation. And this morning the inflation came moderated a bit. So I guess, two questions.

嘿，謝謝，接線生。早安，安德烈。早安，約翰。我的問題只是圍繞毛利率和銷售商品成本通貨膨脹。今天早上，通貨膨脹有所緩和。所以我想，有兩個問題。

One, was any of that moderation of inflation present in the quarter? So did it affect at all gross margins in this quarter? And then as we're thinking about it going forward, as we're thinking about our models, is there anything that would offset it actually improving gross margins a little bit more? So whether it's segment mix or geographic mix, just -- how should we think about how that improvement sort of nets out in our model?

第一，本季通膨是否出現放緩？那麼這是否影響了本季的所有毛利率？然後，當我們思考未來時，當我們思考我們的模型時，是否有什麼可以抵消它，從而實際上提高毛利率？因此，無論是細分市場組合還是地理組合，我們應該如何考慮這種改進如何在我們的模型中發揮作用？

Yeah, morning, Bryan. Look, I think the main driver of our gross margin progress will continue to be productivity. You see 170 basis points contribution to gross margin in the current quarter. And I expect that level of productivity contribution to remain or accelerate as we get to our target of $1.5 billion of COGS gross savings throughout the year.

是的，早上好，布萊恩。看，我認為我們毛利率進步的主要驅動力將繼續是生產力。您會看到本季毛利率貢獻了 170 個基點。我預計，隨著我們實現全年銷售成本總節省 15 億美元的目標，生產力貢獻水準將維持或加速。

We continue to have an effect from SK-II, and SK-II is down 35% in the quarter. So it's a significant impact when you think about the gross margin that business contributes. So the other driver here is, as we see annualization of the SK-II effects, that will help gross margin going forward.

我們繼續受到 SK-II 的影響，SK-II 本季下跌了 35%。因此，當您考慮業務貢獻的毛利率時，這是一個重大影響。因此，正如我們所看到的 SK-II 效應的年化，這裡的另一個驅動因素將有助於毛利率的成長。

To the come to the inflation question, there is some level reflected of easing inflation. The majority of that, I think, will spread throughout the year. Again, our P&L variance holding policy plus contracts generally make for a six- to nine-month delay from actual commodity inflation to it flowing through our P&L. So that will be a help I would probably model towards the latter half of the fiscal year.

說到通膨問題，通膨有一定程度的緩解。我認為其中大部分將在全年傳播。同樣，我們的損益方差持有政策加上合約通常會導致實際商品通貨膨脹到流經我們的損益表有六到九個月的延遲。因此，這將是我可能在本財年下半年建模的一個幫助。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

克里斯凱裡，富國銀行證券。

Hi, good morning, Andre. I wanted to ask specific questions about the baby business and also the family care business. This is a few quarters in a row that baby is under pressure. Can you just talk about the durability of this pressure, maybe how much of that has to do with geographic splits between China and the US and what really the path is to see improvement from here, even if the birth rate dynamic is not in your favor?

嗨，早上好，安德烈。我想詢問有關嬰兒業務和家庭護理業務的具體問題。這是嬰兒連續幾季承受壓力。您能否談談這種壓力的持久性，也許這與中美之間的地理差異有多大關係，以及從這裡看到改善的真正途徑是什麼，即使出生率動態不利於您？

And secondly, on the family care business, I think this is something like -- I don't know -- 11 consecutive quarters of growth. But pricing will become less of a tailwind. I don't think there was any real pricing in the quarter. Can you just talk about the sustainability of these growth rates in the family care business?

其次，在家庭護理業務上，我認為這大概是——我不知道——連續 11 個季度的成長。但定價將不再是順風車。我認為本季沒有任何實際定價。您能簡單談談家庭護理業務這些成長率的可持續性嗎？

And also, if you could just maybe touch on whether you saw any benefit in this quarter from stock-up activity with some of the port congestion and storms, and whether we should be thinking about that maybe next quarter or just in general, if that's something that we should be considering as we think about the next quarter to -- going forward in that business, so based on baby and family care.

另外，您能否談談本季港口擁堵和風暴帶來的庫存活動是否帶來了任何好處，以及我們是否應該在下個季度或總體上考慮這一點，如果是的話當我們考慮下個季度時，我們應該考慮這一點——在嬰兒和家庭護理的基礎上繼續推進該業務。

Great. Thank you, Chris. Let me start with family care maybe. The business model in family care is very stable and sustainable. And the main driver here is to contribute to category growth. That's really the job of the business, and the way to do that is to drive innovation.

偉大的。謝謝你，克里斯。也許讓我從居家照護開始。家庭護理的商業模式非常穩定且可持續。這裡的主要驅動力是促進品類成長。這確實是企業的工作，而做到這一點的方法就是推動創新。

The innovation is generally an improvement in the substrate, so an improvement of the Bounty substrate or the Charmin substrate, which leads to the ability to then down-count sheets of the roll, increase the roll diameter or the roll size, so consumers can have actually more product available to them. And that is an ever-repeating cycle of innovation driving category growth.

創新通常是對基材的改進，因此對 Bounty 基材或 Charmin 基材的改進，從而能夠減少卷的張數，增加卷的直徑或卷的尺寸，這樣消費者就可以擁有實際上他們可以獲得更多的產品。這是一個不斷重複的創新循環，推動品類成長。

That cycle has been working for decades. I expect it to continue to work the same way. The innovation capability of the technology in family care, which is unique to P&G, is by far not exhausted. So we have runway in terms of the innovation we can drive. And again, the model has proven to be very sustainable over decades through different economic contexts.

這個循環已經運作了幾十年。我希望它能繼續以同樣的方式運作。寶潔獨有的居家照護科技創新能力至今尚未耗盡。因此，就我們可以推動的創新而言，我們有跑道。幾十年來，在不同的經濟背景下，該模式再次被證明是非常永續的。

On the stock-up situation, we saw a quick run-up with a port strike. But it didn't really have a material impact on this quarter, nor are we expecting any impact on last quarter. It was very short-lived. So therefore, again, no impact current, no impact next quarter.

在庫存情況方面，我們看到隨著港口罷工，庫存迅速增加。但它並沒有真正對本季產生實質影響，我們也預期不會對上季產生任何影響。這是非常短暫的。因此，再次強調，目前沒有影響，下季也沒有影響。

Baby care has been subject to decelerating or decreasing birth rates forever. That is not a new dynamic. It's a dynamic that has existed within the baby care category for a long, long time, as long as I've been associated with it, which is a long, long time.

嬰兒護理一直受到出生率下降或下降的影響。這並不是什麼新動態。這種動態在嬰兒護理類別中已經存在了很長很長一段時間，只要我與它有聯繫，這已經很長很長一段時間了。

The way to create value and growth in baby care is not volume growth. It is really to provide superior propositions for consumers and thereby, trade them up into higher-order benefit spaces and create value from a market perspective and from a share perspective that way. When we do that successfully, even in the most challenging environments, we can grow.

嬰兒護理產業創造價值和成長的方式不是銷售成長。它實際上是為消費者提供優質的主張，從而將其交易到更高階的利益空間，並從市場角度和份額角度創造價值。當我們成功做到這一點時，即使在最具挑戰性的環境中，我們也能成長。

Case in point would be China. China has the fastest deceleration in birth rates. But with a very strong portfolio that is innovating across all tiers, we have been able to consistently grow sales and share in China. So when the business is innovating in line with what consumers are looking for, communicating that innovation in the right way, distribute it in the right way, the model works very well.

典型的例子就是中國。中國的出生率下降最快。但憑藉在各個層面進行創新的強大產品組合，我們得以持續成長在中國的銷售額和份額。因此，當企業根據消費者的需求進行創新、以正確的方式傳達創新、以正確的方式分發創新時，模式就會發揮很好的作用。

Where we don't, the model stutters, and that sputters. And that's a little bit the situation in North America. We've talked about this before. We have very strong innovation on the premium tier, Swaddlers and Cruisers 360. We continue to see share growth. Swaddlers is up, I think, 1.6 share points. Cruisers 360 is up 50 or 60 basis points.

如果我們不這麼做，模型就會結結巴巴，而且結結巴巴。這就是北美的情況。我們之前已經討論過這個問題。我們在高端產品 Swaddlers 和 Cruisers 360 方面擁有非常強大的創新能力。我認為 Swaddlers 上漲了 1.6 個股點。 Cruisers 360 上漲 50 或 60 個基點。

So that part of the portfolio is doing very well. We have an opportunity to innovate on the mid-tier. We just launched platinum care. It's too early to tell, but I think it's encouraging to see it in market. And we are working on strong innovation on the Baby-Dry business. And that's the same opportunity that we have in Europe.

所以投資組合的這一部分錶現非常好。我們有機會在中層進行創新。我們剛剛推出了白金護理。現在下結論還為時過早，但我認為在市場上看到它是令人鼓舞的。我們正在致力於 Baby-Dry 業務的大力創新。這與我們在歐洲擁有的機會相同。

So the model works, but it requires discipline around strong innovation. And that's what the business is working on. Now that we have full access to lines, because we don't have any capacity shortfalls, I fully expect the business to go back to growth here over the next few quarters.

所以這個模式是有效的，但它需要圍繞著強大的創新進行紀律。這就是該公司正在努力的方向。現在我們已經可以完全使用線路，因為我們沒有任何產能短缺，我完全預計業務將在未來幾季恢復成長。

Filippo Falorni, Citi.

菲利波·法洛尼，花旗銀行。

Hey, good morning, everyone. So, Andre, I wanted to go back to China and your comments about still being a few quarters until you return to growth. Look, you're starting to annualize some of the impacts on SK-II already in the next quarter.

嘿，大家早安。所以，安德烈，我想回到中國，聽聽您關於仍需幾季才能恢復成長的評論。看，您已經開始將下個季度對 SK-II 的一些影響進行年度化。

So should we think about the pace of improvement in China in the sense of less declines, but still negative growth in the balance of the year? And how does the recent stimulus measure in China inform your gradual improvement in the country?

那麼，我們是否應該考慮中國的改善步伐，即下降幅度較小，但今年餘額仍為負成長？中國最近的刺激措施對您的國家的逐步改善有何影響？

And then if I can ask one more, the total company level, I think it would be helpful to give a little bit of context how you see the progression in terms of organic sales growth from approximately 2% in Q1. Should we expect a sequential improvement in Q2, or is it really the improvement to get to your midpoint of your guidance more skewed to the second half? Thank you.

然後，如果我可以再問一個問題，即整個公司層面，我認為提供一些背景資訊會很有幫助，您如何看待第一季有機銷售成長約 2% 的進展。我們是否應該期待第二季度的連續改善，或者這真的是讓您的指導中點更加偏向下半年的改善嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Filippo, morning. Predicting recovery pace in China is a futile task, I think. So we won't attempt that. That's why we have the range that we have communicated. I would expect sequential improvement simply because of the mass of annualization. So we expect any deceleration to not offset the base effect.

是的。謝謝，菲利波，早安。我認為預測中國的復甦速度是徒勞無功的。所以我們不會嘗試這樣做。這就是為什麼我們有我們所傳達的範圍。我預期連續改善僅僅是因為年化的規模。因此，我們預計任何減速都不會抵消基本效應。

But that's where it ends. Again, as we've communicated, if China is simply annualizing, that would point to the midpoint of the guidance. If it does anything better than that, that would help us towards the upper end. If it continues to decelerate throughout the year, that would point us to the lower end of the guidance range. I won't make any prediction what the pace of the direction by quarter is.

但事情就到此為止了。同樣，正如我們所傳達的，如果中國只是按年計算，那麼這將指向指導的中點。如果它能做得更好，那將幫助我們邁向高端。如果全年繼續減速，這將使我們達到指導範圍的下限。我不會對每季的發展速度做出任何預測。

On the progressions per quarter, look, we don't give you quarterly forecasts for a reason. We need some level of flexibility to manage across quarters. But I think, logically, we have to expect some level of progression going into quarter two. But it will be -- the overarching effect that I still want to call out is the headwinds are still with us in quarter one and in quarter two.

關於每季的進展，我們不給你季度預測是有原因的。我們需要一定程度的靈活性來進行跨季度管理。但我認為，從邏輯上講，我們必須預期第二季會出現一定程度的進展。但它將會是——我仍然想指出的總體影響是，第一季和第二季的不利因素仍然存在。

Robert Ottenstein, Evercore ISI.

羅伯特·奧滕斯坦，Evercore ISI。

Great. Well, you guys have done a fantastic job, obviously, in the US and Europe. So I want to circle back to China on a more bigger picture basis. By my estimates, it looks like your sales are now down 20% to 25% over three years, so three years of consecutive declines.

偉大的。嗯，顯然，你們在美國和歐洲做得非常出色。所以我想從更宏觀的角度回到中國。根據我的估計，您的銷售額現在在三年內下降了 20% 到 25%，因此連續三年下降。

And so the question is, are there structural changes in the Chinese market or the Chinese consumer that need to be addressed and what you're doing to address those changes? And I think you also mentioned in terms of SK-II that you're starting to push that brand a little bit more now. So are you starting to see some green shoots with the consumer and the appreciation of that brand and the ability to get that going? Again, thank you.

所以問題是，中國市場或中國消費者是否存在需要解決的結構性變化，以及您正在採取哪些措施來應對這些變化？我想你也提到了 SK-II，你現在開始進一步推動這個品牌。那麼，您是否開始看到消費者的一些萌芽、對品牌的欣賞以及實現這一目標的能力？再次感謝您。

Morning, Robert. Thank you. There are many changes to the Chinese consumer that need to be taken into account. And that's the work the team is doing that I was mentioning before, where consumers buy.

早上好，羅伯特。謝謝。中國消費者有很多變化需要考慮。這就是我之前提到的團隊正在做的工作，也就是消費者購買的地方。

Again, online is a significant part of the business. And even within the online spectrum, a shift into Douyin is a significant part of what needs to be taken into account, where the communication model, the way to build brand equity, and the way to communicate value is different than in any other digital channel.

同樣，在線是業務的重要組成部分。即使在線上領域，向抖音的轉變也是需要考慮的一個重要部分，其中的溝通模式、建立品牌資產的方式以及傳達價值的方式與任何其他數位管道都不同。

A shift in the brick-and-mortar business towards club, towards grocers and supers, is another area that needs to be taken into account. So we are -- as I mentioned earlier, we are rebuilding our distributor partnerships to ensure that we can reach consumers in the right places with the right prices, with the right on-shelf availability across all propositions.

實體業務向俱樂部、​​雜貨店和超級市場的轉變是另一個需要考慮的領域。因此，正如我之前提到的，我們正在重建我們的經銷商合作夥伴關係，以確保我們能夠以合適的價格在合適的地方接觸到消費者，並在所有產品中提供合適的貨架供應。

The consumer behavior in terms of benefits to go for are shifting. If you look at the mass skincare space, for example, the benefit space that was very popular over the last few years was toning. Now it's going into anti-aging and multi-benefit. So we're adjusting our innovation portfolio to meet those requirements. The way media is consumed is changing. So we need to adjust the way that we innovate in our media space and our technical capability to reach consumers without duplication at the right frequency.

消費者追求利益的行為正在改變。例如，如果你看看大眾保養品領域，過去幾年非常流行的福利領域就是爽膚水。現在它進入了抗衰老和多重功效領域。因此，我們正在調整我們的創新組合以滿足這些要求。媒體消費方式正在改變。因此，我們需要調整媒體空間的創新方式和技術能力，以正確的頻率接觸消費者，避免重複。

So all of those things are changing, Robert. And we are -- I think we're doing a good job -- the team is doing a great job in adjusting to those realities. But as you say, as long as the market is not recovering, it will still be an uphill climb. But I do believe that we are very well positioned in China to continue to win. And we are, on a relative basis, performing well, but again, in line with the market.

所以所有這些事情都在改變，羅伯特。我認為我們做得很好，團隊在適應這些現實方面做得很好。但正如你所說，只要市場沒有復甦，這仍然是一個艱難的過程。但我確實相信，我們在中國處於有利地位，可以繼續獲勝。相對而言，我們的表現良好，但又與市場相符。

On SK-II, I would say it's too early to say green shoots. But the brown shoots are disappearing. Let me put it that way. We have done all the right work in terms of rebuilding the brand equity, focusing on the right campaign messaging, activating the most loyal users to be advocates for the brand, innovating, as I said, on the core and on the super premium, upgrading our department store presence, investing in beauty counselors. And so the early signs are positive. But again, I think I want to give ourselves a little bit of time here before we declare green shoots.

對於 SK-II，我想說現在說萌芽還太早。但棕色的芽正在消失。讓我這樣說吧。我們在重建品牌資產方面做了所有正確的工作，專注於正確的營銷活動信息，激活最忠實的用戶成為品牌的擁護者，正如我所說，在核心和超級溢價上進行創新，升級我們在百貨公司的存在，投資美容顧問。因此，早期跡像是積極的。但我想再次強調，在我們宣布復甦之前，我想給自己一點時間。

Kevin Grundy, BNP Paribas.

凱文·格倫迪，法國巴黎銀行。

Great. Thanks. Good morning, Andre. I wanted to pivot. So with respect to areas that you can control, I want to ask about market share performance. And if I'm not mistaken, I think the comment was, earlier on the call, you're gaining or holding share in 28 of your top 50 markets, so a bit more than half.

偉大的。謝謝。早安，安德烈。我想轉向。所以關於你可以控制的領域，我想問市場佔有率的表現。如果我沒記錯的話，我認為電話會議早些時候的評論是，你們在前 50 個市場中的 28 個市場中獲得或持有份額，所以略多於一半。

Also, if I'm not mistaken, that's down from 75% in fiscal '22. I believe the company's longer-term target is closer to 65%. And this is also within the context, you reiterated the 3% to 4% sort of global category growth. And the company printed 2% organic sales in a quarter, understanding some of the dynamics here in the base and 15% of the business seeing more acute headwinds.

另外，如果我沒記錯的話，這個比例比 22 財年的 75% 有所下降。我相信公司的長期目標更接近65%。這也是在您重申全球品類成長 3% 到 4% 的背景下。該公司在一個季度內實現了 2% 的有機銷售額，了解了基地的一些動態，並且 15% 的業務面臨更嚴重的阻力。

So with all of that in sort of context, I was hoping you could comment on sort of longer term, the importance of market share as a KPI within the organization; and then two, and I think maybe more immediately, what you see is the greatest areas of opportunity to elevate the company's market share performance. Thanks for that.

因此，在所有這些背景下，我希望您能夠從長遠角度評論市場份額作為組織內 KPI 的重要性；然後是兩個，我想也許更直接的是，你看到的是提升公司市場佔有率表現的最大機會領域。謝謝你。

Morning, Kevin. Yeah. Look, the market share trend, I think, is generally positive. It wasn't necessarily a surprise that the market share would decrease in terms of number of category-country combinations that are growing or holding share. Simply because of the level of pricing that we have to take and some of the dynamics where, for example, retailer brand pricing in Europe significantly lagged in terms of timing.

早安，凱文。是的。我認為，市場佔有率趨勢總體上是正面的。就成長或持有份額的類別-國家組合數量而言，市場份額下降並不一定令人意外。只是因為我們必須採取的定價水準以及一些動態，例如，歐洲的零售商品牌定價在時間上明顯滯後。

So going ahead and leading in many of those markets, because we simply are the category leader, generally results in short-term share effects that are less favorable. And I think that's to a large degree the deceleration in terms of number of category-country combinations that you see growing.

因此，在許多這樣的市場中繼續前進並處於領先地位，因為我們只是該類別的領導者，通常會導致不太有利的短期份額效應。我認為這在很大程度上是您看到的類別-國家組合數量增長的減速。

I would say the way we talk to our teams about it is, what our job is is to grow markets. And the best way to grow markets is to increase household penetration of our categories. The earliest indication to see whether we're increasing household penetration is volume share.

我想說的是，我們與團隊談論這個問題的方式是，我們的工作就是發展市場。擴大市場的最佳方式是提高我們產品類別的家庭滲透率。判斷我們是否正在提高家庭滲透率的最早跡像是銷售份額。

So it is an important measure for us, if it is a measure of creating incremental consumption. And that's what we ultimately bring it back to. So it's an early indication for us to say, okay, if we don't grow volume share, we're probably not growing household penetration. But the real measure that we're going after is panel-based household penetration, which is the best measure of, are we doing our job in growing markets.

所以如果它是創造增量消費的措施的話，這對我們來說是一個重要的措施。這就是我們最終將其帶回來的。因此，這是一個早期跡象，讓我們說，好吧，如果我們不提高銷售份額，我們可能就不會提高家庭滲透率。但我們追求的真正衡量標準是基於面板的家庭滲透率，這是衡量我們是否在不斷增長的市場中做好工作的最佳衡量標準。

I think we're making progress here. The European results are -- as I mentioned, both in focus markets and enterprise markets, we are holding to growing volume share now, which was very important to see. That's where the private labor pricing effect was most pronounced. That's a significant portion of our top 50 category-country combinations.

我認為我們正在這裡取得進展。正如我所提到的，歐洲的結果是，無論是在重點市場還是企業市場，我們現在都保持著不斷增長的銷售份額，這一點非常重要。這就是私人勞動力定價效應最為明顯的地方。這是我們排名前 50 名的類別-國家組合的重要組成部分。

Most pleased about the progress in the US, where we continue to grow both volume share and value share. And I also think the plans in Latin America are very strong in terms of innovation, so I have confidence that the share progression there will be positive.

最高興的是我們在美國取得的進展，我們在美國的銷售份額和價值份額都在持續成長。我還認為拉丁美洲的計劃在創新方面非常強大，因此我相信那裡的份額進步將是積極的。

Peter Grom, UBS.

彼得‧格羅姆，瑞銀集團。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. I guess, Andre, I wanted to ask a follow-up to Steve and Filippo's question. And I don't want to be too specific. But when you're kind of discussing the rate of improvement or annualizing the impacts from China and the Middle East and kind of the organic revenue range, are you speaking to where it would put organic revenue growth for the year? Or are you kind of just speaking conceptually how you would see it evolving for the balance of the year?

謝謝，接線生。大家早安。我想，安德烈，我想問史蒂夫和菲利波問題的後續問題。我不想說得太具體。但是，當您討論中國和中東的改善率或年化影響以及有機收入範圍時，您是在談論今年的有機收入成長嗎？或者您只是從概念上講您認為今年餘下的時間裡它會如何演變？

And I guess, the reason I ask is it seems that in order to hit the midpoint of the range, you would need some pretty strong performance from here after the 2% in 1Q. So I just wasn't sure if you were implying that based on where things stand today, simply annualizing these headwinds would still be enough to hit 4% for the year. Thanks.

我想，我問的原因似乎是，為了達到該範圍的中點，在第一季的 2% 之後，你需要從這裡開始一些相當強勁的表現。所以我只是不確定你是否在暗示，根據目前的情況，簡單地將這些逆風年化仍然足以使今年的成長率達到 4%。謝謝。

Yeah. I think it would be a combination, Peter, of annualizing the headwinds and maintaining and slightly accelerating the run rate in the 85% of the business, which, on an easier comp, would then increase obviously the year-over-year quarterly growth.

是的。彼得，我認為這將是一個組合，將逆風年化，並維持並略微加快 85% 業務的運行率，在更輕鬆的情況下，這將顯著增加同比季度增長。

It's hard to say how these two pieces exactly will work together. But conceptually, we know two things need to be true. One, we need to annualize, and we need to annualize at the end of quarter two and quarter three. Number two, the 85% of the business needs to keep running at the pace that it's running at.

很難說這兩部分到底如何協同工作。但從概念上講，我們知道有兩件事必須是正確的。第一，我們需要進行年度化，我們需要在第二季末和第三季末進行年度化。第二，85% 的業務需要維持目前的運作速度。

Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan.

安德里亞·特謝拉，摩根大通。

Thank you, operator, and good morning to all. Andre, can you comment a little bit on what Peter was trying to get to? And I think it's valid in the sense that your skincare performance, right, it was like, I believe, more than 20% negative in total.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。安德烈，你能評論一下彼得想要達到的目標嗎？我認為這是有效的，因為你的護膚表現，對吧，我相信，總共有超過 20% 是負面的。

And then you're annualizing, if I'm doing the math correctly, that on itself is 700- to 800-basis-point [sequential] easiness in guide -- no, in comp. So with that to say, that needs to be slightly better. So let's say that the minus 22, call it, becoming [meetings] negative, on itself, helps your comp.

然後你進行年度化，如果我計算正確的話，這本身就是指南中 700 到 800 個基點[順序]的容易性——不，在比較中。話雖如此，這需要稍微好一點。因此，假設負 22 本身就對你的比賽有幫助。

And then on top of that, you're saying kind of stability. But in terms of stability, what gives you confidence that Europe and the US can keep that stability, or even Latin America can keep that 85% running, all things that we know now for the second quarter?

最重要的是，你說的是穩定性。但就穩定性而言，是什麼讓您有信心歐洲和美國保持穩定，甚至拉丁美洲能夠保持 85% 的運行，所有這些都是我們現在知道的第二季度的情況？

So it implies -- I mean, I'm all to say that it does imply -- if you're keeping guidance at the midpoint, it does imply that you're going to be sequentially better in the second-quarter fiscal, is that's the way we should be thinking.

因此，這意味著——我的意思是，我想說的是，它確實意味著——如果你將指導保持在中點，它確實意味著你在第二季度的財政狀況將連續好轉，是這就是我們應該思考的方式。

Andrea, look, I think that -- I want to be clear -- the guidance is a range. So it's 3% to 5% on the top line. And all the scenarios you're describing can either lead to 5% or can lead to 3%.

安德里亞，聽著，我認為──我想明確一點──指導是一個範圍。所以營業額是 3% 到 5%。您描述的所有場景要么會導致 5%，要么會導致 3%。

I think what we're saying is the range is still viable. Yes, if you want to get to 5%, you have to see a significant acceleration in -- or you have to see a fast annualization and some acceleration in China and the Middle East. And you have to see sequential stability on the core of the business. I think I've explained the assumptions, but the range is still viable.

我認為我們所說的是這個範圍仍然可行。是的，如果你想達到 5%，你必須看到顯著的加速，或者你必須看到中國和中東的快速年化和一些加速。你必須看到業務核心的連續穩定性。我想我已經解釋了假設，但範圍仍然可行。

What gives me confidence on the 85% of the business is what I've said before; that business has been delivering at these growth rates, not for one quarter, but for five quarters, in some cases for six quarters. So if you look at that, I think it gives me confidence that we have a sustained track record of delivering at those growth rates.

讓我對85%的業務充滿信心的是我之前說的；這項業務一直以這樣的速度成長，不是一個季度，而是五個季度，有時是六個季度。因此，如果你看看這一點，我認為這讓我有信心，我們在實現這些成長率方面擁有持續的記錄。

And when you look at the shared trajectory, it's pointing upwards. And we have more innovation coming. So I think the fuel is there. But you're right, there are multiple scenarios where you can construct this where you end up at a 3%. There are multiple scenarios where you can construct this where you end up at 5%.

當你觀察共享軌跡時，它是向上的。我們也將推出更多創新。所以我認為燃料就在那裡。但你是對的，在多種情況下你都可以建造這個，最終得到 3% 的結果。您可以在多種情況下建立此方案，最終得到 5% 的結果。

Kaumil Gajrawala, Jefferies.

考米爾·加吉拉瓦拉，傑弗里斯。

Hi, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Can you talk a bit about price points and promo? And in particular, I guess, I see that mix was negative for both beauty and grooming. Beauty, I guess, I would assume is SK-II.

你好，謝謝。大家早安。能談談價格點和促銷嗎？特別是，我想，我發現這種混合對於美容和修飾都是不利的。美女，我想，我會假設是SK-II。

But maybe just talking about where the consumer is, are you seeing trading down, how you're thinking about that in the context of promotional activity and absolute price points. And then very quickly, anything on inventory, destocking? We're just hearing more and more of that at retailers. Curious if that's something that's impacting you or something that you're watching.

但也許只是談論消費者在哪裡，您是否看到降價，您如何在促銷活動和絕對價格點的背景下考慮這一點。然後很快，庫存上有什麼，去庫存嗎？我們在零售商那裡聽到了越來越多的這樣的說法。很好奇這是否正在影響您或您正在觀看的事情。

Yup. Hey, Kaumil. On promo, I would describe the overall market situation as stable. Little change versus what we've talked in the previous quarters, both in Europe and in the US.

是的。嘿，考米爾。就促銷而言，我將整體市場狀況形容為穩定。與我們前幾季在歐洲和美國所討論的情況相比，變化不大。

We -- again, we focus on promotion that, hopefully, drives market growth and category growth in lower-penetrated categories, combining with high-penetration categories, so we can provide value to consumers but, at the same time, drive growth and trial. Overall competitive environment is still stable and still slightly below pre-COVID levels.

我們再次強調，我們專注於促銷，希望能夠推動低滲透類別的市場成長和類別成長，並與高滲透類別結合，這樣我們就可以為消費者提供價值，同時推動成長和嘗試。整體競爭環境仍然穩定，仍略低於疫情前的水平。

You're right, the beauty negative price mix effect is driven by SK-II. And on grooming, it's really driven by a shift. We had a record appliance period a year ago. Now we have more sales in the Gillette part of the portfolio. So that's the shift that you see in grooming.

你是對的，美容品負價格混合效應是由 SK-II 推動的。在修飾方面，這確實是由轉變所驅動的。一年前，我們的應用期創下了紀錄。現在，我們的產品組合中吉列部分的銷售額有所增加。這就是你在美容方面看到的轉變。

Nothing points to the consumer trading down. Nothing points to any increased price-based competition at this point in time. And again -- I'm repeating myself -- but the categories we're in, we have the right propositions that reassure consumers that the products work.

沒有任何跡象顯示消費者交易下降。目前沒有任何跡象表明基於價格的競爭會加劇。再說一次——我重複一次——但我們所處的類別，我們有正確的主張，可以讓消費者放心，我們的產品有效。

We have the right price ladders, so there's access to consumers at higher cash outlays, lower cash outlays, higher price per unit, lower price per unit. And as long as we keep innovating and driving that irresistible superiority, I believe we will be fine.

我們有合適的價格階梯，因此可以以更高的現金支出、更低的現金支出、更高的單位價格、更低的單位價格來吸引消費者。只要我們不斷創新並發揮這種不可抗拒的優勢，我相信我們會沒事的。

But we keep watching this very closely at this point in time. No indications that the consumer is not with us. Private labor shares are flat. And if you look at a sequential basis, private labor value share in the US is actually down from past 12 months, 16.2 to now 15.7. So all of that indicates to me a stable consumer and stable price promotion environment.

但我們目前仍在密切關注這一情況。沒有跡象表明消費者不在我們身邊。私人勞動力份額持平。如果你看一下連續的基礎，美國的私人勞動力價值份額實際上從過去 12 個月的 16.2 下降到了現在的 15.7。因此，所有這些都向我表明了穩定的消費者和穩定的價格促銷環境。

Mark Astrachan, Stifel.

馬克·阿斯特拉坎，斯蒂菲爾。

Yeah, thanks. Morning, everybody. I wanted to ask specifically on SK-II. It seems like the trends in the brand are just a little bit worse than the overall prestige skincare category. I guess, I'm curious about how you think about the brand.

是的，謝謝。早安，大家。我想具體問一下SK-II。該品牌的趨勢似乎比整體高端護膚品類別差一點。我想，我很好奇你如何看待這個品牌。

You talked before, maybe not last quarter, work that you had done about brand relevance, awareness, and intent to purchase and improving. And clearly, it's not. I get some of that's the weaker consumer in China. But at some point, does it become a question of brand impairment and kind of need to reinvest and reinvent the brand to broaden or regain relevance?

您之前（也許不是上個季度）談到您在品牌相關性、知名度以及購買和改進意圖方面所做的工作。顯然，事實並非如此。我了解到其中一些是中國消費者的疲軟。但在某種程度上，這是否會成為品牌受損的問題，以及是否需要對品牌進行再投資和重塑，以擴大或重新獲得相關性？

So I guess, the question is, how do you think about all of what I just said in the context of just the underperformance versus the category seems to be widening? And what's a reasonable rate of a timeframe for it to return to some sort of improving trend, not even growth? I know what you said about China. But the (inaudible) specifically within that market would be helpful. Thank you.

所以我想，問題是，在表現不佳與類別似乎正在擴大的背景下，您如何看待我剛才所說的所有內容？讓它恢復某種改善趨勢（甚至不是成長）的合理時間範圍是多少？我知道你所說的中國。但（聽不清楚）具體在該市場內會有所幫助。謝謝。

Yeah, thank you, Mark. SK-II as a brand continues to be very relevant. The core benefit and the core ingredient as the reason to believe that that benefit is delivered, plus the efficacy shown in actual consumer experience over decades, I think, is still the most relevant proposition and as close to irresistible superiority that is actually ingredient-driven in the category as you can find.

是的，謝謝你，馬克。 SK-II 作為一個品牌仍然非常重要。我認為，核心功效和核心成分作為相信能夠提供這種功效的理由，加上幾十年來實際消費者體驗中所顯示的功效，仍然是最相關的命題，並且接近於實際上由成分驅動的不可抗拒的優越性在您可以找到的類別中。

And the consumer is playing that back. We had very strong results in SK-II outside of China and outside of travel retail. And I think the effects that we're seeing, which is dragging the brand down, is the unique combination of a Japanese brand in a Chinese context when there's conflict and, therefore, a negative sentiment towards Japanese brands in aggregate. That's unique to SK-II, and I think that's what's driving the effect.

消費者正在回放這一點。我們的 SK-II 在中國以外和旅遊零售領域取得了非常強勁的業績。我認為我們所看到的拖累品牌的影響是日本品牌在中國背景下的獨特組合，當存在衝突時，因此總體上對日本品牌產生負面情緒。這是 SK-II 的獨特之處，我認為這就是推動效果的原因。

When the business is down to that degree, there is a level of investment choice that needs to be made, which the team has done. But we've encouraged them to continue to invest at the right level to rebuild the equity of the brand, specifically in China and in travel retail, which I think they are doing well.

當業務下降到這種程度時，需要做出一定程度的投資選擇，團隊已經做到了這一點。但我們鼓勵他們繼續進行適當的投資，以重建品牌資產，特別是在中國和旅遊零售領域，我認為他們做得很好。

So I've got not much more to add other than to say the brand is very relevant. The core of the brand is being strengthened with the core messaging of what Pitera is and what the benefit is that the brand delivers. The addition of a super-premium tier, I think, is highly relevant for those consumers. They have the spending power, and they're looking for the best possible offering. And price is a connotation to quality and efficacy in these categories.

因此，除了說這個品牌非常相關之外，我沒有什麼可補充的。該品牌的核心正在透過 Pitera 是什麼以及品牌提供的好處的核心訊息得到加強。我認為，增加超高端等級與這些消費者高度相關。他們有消費能力，並且正在尋找最好的產品。在這些類別中，價格是品質和功效的內涵。

So I feel very good about the core of the brand. And obviously, the Japanese-Chinese situation is unique to SK-II, which is what we're annualizing beginning quarter two.

所以我對這個品牌的核心感覺非常好。顯然，日本和中國的情況對於 SK-II 來說是獨一無二的，這也是我們對第二季開始的年度預測。

Nik Modi, RBC Capital Markets.

尼克莫迪，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Andre, just a quick housekeeping and then a broader question. You mentioned in your prepared commentary that you're not embedding any store closures into the guide. I think that's what I heard.

是的，謝謝。大家早安。安德烈，我簡單介紹一下，然後再提出一個更廣泛的問題。您在準備好的評論中提到，您不會在指南中嵌入任何商店關閉的內容。我想這就是我聽到的。

And just given what's going on in the drug channel, just wanted to get your perspective on -- have you accounted for some of the dynamics playing out in that market? So that's the housekeeping question.

考慮到毒品管道中正在發生的事情，我只是想了解您的觀點——您是否考慮到了該市場中正在發生的一些動態？這就是家政問題。

The broader question is just about innovation. And I think P&G is kind of anomalous in the fact that there's real disruptive innovation coming out of the company more so than I think the broader sector. And so maybe you can just give us an update on Olay Melts and Tide Evo and kind of how that initiative is progressing.

更廣泛的問題只是關於創新。我認為寶潔公司有點反常，因為該公司真正的顛覆性創新比我認為更廣泛的行業更多。也許您可以向我們介紹玉蘭油 Melts 和汰漬 Evo 的最新情況以及該計劃的進展。

And within the pipeline over the next one to three years, what other type of -- of course, you're not going to mention the specifics -- but just like similar type of disruptive type of innovation. But is there anything else that you can kind of share with us regarding other types of initiative like you have with Tide Evo and Olay Melts? Thanks.

在未來一到三年的管道中，還有什麼其他類型的——當然，你不會提及具體細節——但就像類似類型的顛覆性創新一樣。但是，關於其他類型的舉措（例如汰漬 Evo 和玉蘭油融化），您還有什麼可以與我們分享的嗎？謝謝。

Thank you, Nik. As the guidance says, we've not assumed any major store closures in the US. Obviously, when there's selective store closures, that's part of the normal business. So I will leave it there.

謝謝你，尼克。正如指南所述，我們並未假設美國會關閉任何大型商店。顯然，當選擇性關閉商店時，這是正常業務的一部分。所以我會把它留在那裡。

On disruptive innovation, Olay Melts is doing very well. Evo test market is also doing really well, at or above expectations in the test market. But again, it's a test market, so early on. We are making progress on the industrialization of Evo, so the ability to produce at scale to be able to launch at a national level. And that is also progressing as planned.

在顛覆性創新上，Olay Melts 做得非常好。 Evo 測試市場的表現也非常好，達到或高於測試市場的預期。但同樣，這是一個測試市場，而且還處於早期階段。我們正在Evo的產業化方面取得進展，因此具備了大規模生產的能力，能夠在國家層級推出。這也正在按計劃進行。

So I would say both, based on fiber spinning technology, are very promising propositions. And both seem to resonate very well with consumers. And as you point out, both are highly proprietary to P&G. And the forum itself has a lot of runway when you think about our product portfolio.

所以我想說，這兩種基於纖維紡絲技術的方案都是非常有前景的。兩者似乎都與消費者產生了很好的共鳴。正如您所指出的，兩者都屬於寶潔公司的高度專有。當您考慮我們的產品組合時，論壇本身就有很多跑道。

In terms of broader disruptive technology and being able to advance our competitive moat from an innovation standpoint, we're going to spend a lot of time on that during Investor Day. So I won't go into the details here, but it'll be a big part of the conversation in November.

在更廣泛的顛覆性技術以及能夠從創新的角度推進我們的競爭護城河方面，我們將在投資者日期間花費大量時間。所以我不會在這裡詳細介紹，但這將是 11 月談話的重要組成部分。

Olivia Tong, Raymond James.

唐奧立，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Thanks. I want to talk about -- there's clearly a big divergence in performance across categories, and realize that some, like beauty, have higher exposure to some underperforming markets. But if we look at like fabric and home care, the example you just gave, for instance, can you talk a little bit about what you're doing differently there versus your other categories? Because it feels like in fabric and home, you're innovating more; the innovation is resonating better.

謝謝。我想談談 - 不同類別的表現顯然存在很大差異，並意識到某些類別（例如美容）對某些表現不佳的市場的敞口更大。但是，如果我們看看織物和家庭護理，例如您剛才舉的例子，您能否談談您在這方面與其他類別的做法有何不同？因為感覺就像在織物和家居中一樣，你正在進行更多創新；創新更能引起共鳴。

Why doesn't it seem to be working in some other categories, baby for example, or beauty, excluding SK-II for the moment? Because it doesn't seem like competition is any lighter in these categories; if anything, it's just as heavy. Thanks.

為什麼它似乎不適用於其他一些類別，例如嬰兒，或美容，目前不包括 SK-II？因為這些類別的競爭似乎並不輕鬆；如果有什麼不同的話，那就是它同樣重。謝謝。

Yup, morning, Olivia. Look, that's a reason why we have a portfolio of 10 different categories. They, at times, perform at different levels, but operating the global portfolio will allow us to still deliver algorithm with even some ups and downs across categories.

是的，早上好，奧莉維亞。看，這就是我們擁有 10 個不同類別的產品組合的原因。有時，它們的表現水平不同，但營運全球投資組合將使我們仍然能夠交付演算法，即使跨類別有一些起伏。

Specifically on your question on beauty, I think it's important to look at beauty, excluding China and SK-II, if you look at that picture, North America is growing 8%, Europe 6%, enterprise markets 8%. The growth in North American hair care is 9% on a 12% base. Share is up 90 basis points. Global [APDO] is growing 11%; in North America, 9%.

具體到你關於美容的問題，我認為重要的是要關注美容，不包括中國和SK-II，如果你看那張照片，北美增長了8%，歐洲增長了6%，企業市場增長了8% 。北美護髮產品在 12% 的基礎上成長了 9%。股價上漲 90 個基點。全球 [APDO] 成長 11%；在北美，為 9%。

We've grown native sales 10 times over over the past five years. So I think that the team is doing a tremendous job reading the consumer, developing propositions that match consumers' needs, communicating in the right way, bringing them to market. And that's, I think, what's reflected. But it's hard to overcome with a significant part of your business in China, those headwinds.

過去五年來，我們的本地銷售額成長了 10 倍。因此，我認為團隊在了解消費者、制定符合消費者需求的主張、以正確的方式進行溝通、將其推向市場等方面做了大量工作。我認為這就是所反映的。但對於您在中國的業務的很大一部分來說，這些阻力是很難克服的。

Fabric and home care is doing a tremendous job in innovation. We've talked about Evo. We've talked about fabric enhancers. The runway is also huge across both categories because they both represent relatively big opportunities in terms of incremental household penetration.

織品和家庭護理在創新方面做出了巨大的貢獻。我們已經討論過 Evo。我們已經討論過織物增強劑。這兩個類別的跑道也很大，因為它們在增加家庭滲透率方面都代表著相對較大的機會。

When you think about Swiffer, for example -- PowerMop is a new product to the category and is driving significant category growth. It's up 9%. Downy and Tide Rinse are new adds to the laundry regime as odor removers, and they are the number one driver of category growth. So when we find those opportunities, that accelerates business market growth and is sustainable.

例如，當您想到 Swiffer 時，PowerMop 是該類別的新產品，並且正在推動該類別的顯著成長。上漲了9%。 Downy 和 Tide Rinse 是洗衣體系中的新成員，作為除味劑，它們是品類成長的第一個推動力。因此，當我們找到這些機會時，就會加速業務市場的成長並且是可持續的。

And we have pockets of that in baby care. When you think about Ninjamas, for example, which is a bedwetter category, which was very underserved, when we innovated in that category, we grew categories. We drove category growth of 6% to 7% and took significant share.

我們在嬰兒照護方面也有這樣的能力。例如，當你想到 Ninjamas 時，這是一個尿床者類別，服務非常不足，當我們在該類別中進行創新時，我們擴大了類別。我們推動品類成長 6% 至 7%，並佔了顯著份額。

So there are opportunities in all of those categories. Will they all be at the same time, and so we see consistent growth across all? No. But all these categories are rich with opportunity to drive innovation, drive category growth, and delight more consumers.

因此，所有這些類別都存在機會。它們會同時出現嗎？不會。

Larry Marsh, Piper Sandler.

拉里·馬什，派珀·桑德勒。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I'd like to, hopefully, get a little bit more color on what you're seeing with your retailer partners. How are inventory orders tracking? Has there been any change throughout the quarter, and how are you expecting those orders to trend over the next several quarters?

嘿，早安。感謝您提出問題。我希望能夠對您與零售商合作夥伴所看到的情況有更多的了解。庫存訂單如何追蹤？整個季度有什麼變化嗎？

And then just generally speaking, how is that -- how are you viewing the broader retail dynamic, both in the US and then in Europe and in LatAm, and how are those differing? Thank you.

那麼一般來說，您如何看待美國、歐洲和拉丁美洲更廣泛的零售動態，以及它們有何不同？謝謝。

Thank you. Inventory levels at retailers, broadly speaking, are stable. There's no major movement. The only effect worth calling out was the base period effect in Europe, where some retailers increased inventory levels in quarter one of last year because we had announced a supply chain program that was cutting over at that time. Other than that, I would characterize it with relative stability; nothing to report.

謝謝。總體而言，零售商的庫存水準是穩定的。沒有什麼大的動靜。唯一值得一提的影響是歐洲的基期效應，一些零售商在去年第一季增加了庫存水平，因為我們宣布了當時正在削減的供應鏈計劃。除此之外，我認為它具有相對穩定性；沒有什麼好報告的。

The general retailer relationship with P&G is extremely constructive. I would describe it as probably the best retailer relationships we've had as far as I can remember. And that's true for the US. That is true for Europe, where we have built strong partnerships with our retailers, all under the common objective to grow markets.

一般零售商與寶潔公司的關係都極具建設性。我認為這可能是我記憶中我們擁有的最好的零售商關係。對美國來說也是如此。對於歐洲來說也是如此，我們與零售商建立了牢固的合作關係，所有這些都是為了發展市場的共同目標。

And the more retailers understand, embrace, and see how a partnership with P&G, strong innovation and ability to reach underserved or unserved consumers can help them grow their categories and our categories, that partnership is only strengthening.

隨著越來越多的零售商了解、接受並了解與寶潔公司的合作夥伴關係、強大的創新能力以及接觸服務不足或未獲得服務的消費者的能力如何幫助他們發展自己的品類和我們的品類，這種合作關係只會加強。

On the supply chain side, we are building very powerful programs to integrate our supply chains, create more value, reduce inventory levels and cash needed. Those programs are off to a very promising start. And so all of that contributes, I think, to the very positive retailer relationships that we see around the globe.

在供應鏈方面，我們正在建立非常強大的計劃來整合我們的供應鏈，創造更多價值，降低庫存水準和所需現金。這些計劃已經有了一個非常有希望的開始。因此，我認為，所有這些都有助於我們在全球範圍內看到非常積極的零售商關係。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科，TD·考恩。

Hi, thanks for the question. Andre, regarding the $300 million positive benefit in terms of your outlook for commodity costs, could you tell me, like, how you think about that versus your original guide?

你好，謝謝你的提問。安德烈（Andre），關於您對商品成本前景的 3 億美元積極收益，您能否告訴我，與您最初的指南相比，您對此有何看法？

Like, do you intend to, like, hold it back and maybe deploy it in categories where you kind of need to compete more effectively because of price competition? Or can you think you have more proactive plans with that money to put it into areas of growth? How are you thinking about that benefit?

例如，你是否打算，例如，保留它，也許將其部署在由於價格競爭而需要更有效競爭的類別中？或者您認為您有更積極的計劃，將這筆資金投入成長領域？您如何看待這個好處？

Look, we're still looking at a $200 million AT headwind for the year. So in relative terms, it's not really a healthy over year. It's still a $200 million AT cost headwind that we need to absorb.

看，我們仍然面臨今年 2 億美元的 AT 逆風。因此，相對而言，這一年的表現並不健康。我們仍然需要消化 2 億美元的 AT 成本逆風。

And honestly, the way this works within our structure is, the business units control what to do in terms to offset any headwinds or, if there are tailwinds, how to reinvest and if to reinvest within the business. So there's no corporate approach to any of this.

老實說，這在我們的結構中運作的方式是，業務部門控制如何抵消任何不利因素，或者如果有不利因素，控制如何再投資以及是否在業務內進行再投資。因此，沒有任何公司方法可以解決這些問題。

It's really based on what is best for each of the categories in each of the regions. And therefore, I can't really give you a constructive answer here, other than to say it's still a $200 million after-tax headwind. We'll deal with it. It's embedded in our guidance range.

它實際上是基於每個地區每個類別的最佳選擇。因此，我不能在這裡給你一個建設性的答案，只能說這仍然是 2 億美元的稅後逆風。我們會處理的。它已包含在我們的指導範圍內。

Linda Bolton Weiser, DA Davidson.

琳達·博爾頓·韋澤，DA Davidson。

Yes, hi. I just wanted to ask a little bit more about the beauty segment. I was curious about Olay in North America and what's being done there in terms of the competition, the derm-based brands, the competition there.

是的，嗨。我只是想多問一些關於美容領域的問題。我對玉蘭油在北美的情況很好奇，以及那裡的競爭情況、基於皮膚的品牌以及那裡的競爭情況。

And then on China, again, we're all talking about SK-II, but how was the hair care piece in China? Was that decline less? And how is P&G doing, and what are you doing there on the hair care side in China? Thanks.

然後說到中國，我們都在談論SK-II，但護髮產品在中國怎麼樣？跌幅是否較小？寶潔公司在中國的護髮領域做得怎麼樣？謝謝。

Thank you, Linda. As I said, the beauty business overall in North America is doing very well. You point to the Olay business.

謝謝你，琳達。正如我所說，北美的美容行業整體表現非常好。你指的是玉蘭油業務。

And within Olay, the innovation on super serums is incredibly successful, the most successful entry in the segment in recent years. And 65% of consumers are incremental to the category, so exactly what we want to see. Melts is very successful, resonating with consumers, and that's a new form. So us being able to, I think, communicate the benefit of the form, consumers experiencing it, and repeating now, is also great to see.

在玉蘭油內部，超級精華液的創新非常成功，是近年來該領域最成功的產品。 65% 的消費者是該品類的增量消費者，這正是我們希望看到的。 Melts非常成功，引起了消費者的共鳴，這是一種新的形式。因此，我認為，我們能夠傳達這種形式的好處，讓消費者體驗它，並現在重複，這也是很高興看到的。

Now, we have an opportunity on the core business, specifically on the jar business, to rejuvenate the franchise. And that's the work that the team is doing with urgency. So recognized an opportunity there, and it's being worked.

現在，我們有機會在核心業務上，特別是在罐子業務上，來振興特許經營權。這就是團隊正在緊急做的工作。所以認識到那裡有一個機會，並且正在努力。

On the hair care China side, strong innovation. We've divested our Vidal Sassoon business. We're now focusing on the three brands we have: Head & Shoulders, Pantene, and Rejoice. We have strong innovation launch in Head & Shoulders, premium innovation. We've launched innovation on Pantene. Both are performing very well.

在護髮中國方面，創新強勁。我們已經剝離了 Vidal Sassoon 業務。我們現在專注於我們擁有的三個品牌：海飛絲、潘婷和飄柔。我們在海飛絲推出了強大的創新產品，即優質創新。我們在潘婷上推出了創新。兩人的表現都非常好。

Pantene was the number-one hair care brand online ahead of Kérastase for the first time in the last quarter. Head & Shoulders is growing share, and the plan on Rejoice launching later in the year. So the team is doing great work on the hair care brands.

上季度，潘婷首次超越卡詩，成為線上排名第一的護髮品牌。海飛絲的市佔率不斷增長，飄柔計劃在今年稍後推出。因此，該團隊在護髮品牌方面做了很多工作。

But again, all of this is done in a context where the market is still down. So the most important element here is, as we've said all along, the market needs to annualize and stabilize.

但同樣，所有這一切都是在市場仍然低迷的背景下完成的。因此，正如我們一直以來所說，這裡最重要的因素是市場需要年化並穩定下來。

All right. Thank you. I hope you agree with us that it's a strong start to the year on the majority of the business. We continue to see the headwinds that we had telegraphed in December. But we are confident that even with those headwinds and the strength of the core of the business, we will be able to deliver within guidance range on all metrics.

好的。謝謝。我希望您同意我們的觀點，對於大多數業務而言，今年是一個好的開始。我們繼續看到 12 月所傳達的不利因素。但我們相信，即使面臨這些不利因素和核心業務的實力，我們也將能夠在所有指標的指導範圍內實現目標。

We will be available for more questions during the day. So feel free to reach out, and thanks for spending the time with us. Have a great day.

我們將在白天回答更多問題。因此，請隨時與我們聯繫，感謝您花時間與我們在一起。祝你有美好的一天。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。