沛齊 (PAYX) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Paychex Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加今天的 Paychex 第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話正在錄音。

And it is now my pleasure to turn today's call over to President and Chief Executive Officer, John Gibson. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興將今天的電話轉給總裁兼執行長約翰·吉布森 (John Gibson)。請繼續。

Thank you, Mike. Thank you, everyone, for joining our discussion today on the Paychex third quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings release. Joining me today is Bob Schafer -- Schrader, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，麥克。感謝大家今天加入我們關於 Paychex 2024 財年第三季財報發布的討論。今天加入我的是鮑勃·謝弗（Bob Schafer）——我們的財務長施拉德（Bob Schrader）。

This morning, before the market opened, we released our financial results for the third quarter. You can access our earnings release on our Investor Relations website. Our Form 10-Q will be filed with the SEC within the next day. This teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on our website for approximately 90 days.

今天早上，在開盤前，我們發布了第三季的財務表現。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上造訪我們的收益發布。我們的 10-Q 表格將在第二天提交給 SEC。本次電話會議將透過網路進行廣播，並將在我們的網站上存檔並提供約 90 天的時間。

I'm going to start the call today with an update on the business highlights for the third quarter and then turn it over to Bob for a financial update. And then, of course, we'll be happy to take your questions.

我將在今天的電話會議中介紹第三季業務亮點的最新情況，然後交給鮑伯以了解最新的財務狀況。當然，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

We delivered solid results in the third quarter and the first 9 months of the current fiscal year. Total revenue growth of 4% in the third quarter reflected a lower contribution for our Employee Retention Tax Credit, or ERTC service, as compared with the prior year period. This is consistent with our previously communicated expectations that ERTC revenue would become a headwind in the second half of the current fiscal year. Excluding this impact, our total revenue growth accelerated to 7% in the quarter.

我們在第三季和本財年的前 9 個月取得了穩健的表現。第三季總收入成長 4%，反映出我們對員工保留稅收抵免 (ERTC) 服務的貢獻與去年同期相比有所下降。這與我們先前傳達的預期一致，即 ERTC 收入將成為本財年下半年的阻力。排除此影響，本季我們的總營收成長加速至 7%。

While our new client volumes remained solid and in line, and both client and revenue retentions were in line with our expectations, several factors, including our decision to wind down the ERTC program based upon the recent legislative developments on Capitol Hill, continued moderation of employment growth within our client bases and slightly lower realized rates, all combined to create headwind -- a larger headwind than what we had anticipated in the quarter.

雖然我們的新客戶數量保持穩定且穩定，並且客戶和收入保留都符合我們的預期，但有幾個因素，包括我們根據國會山最近的立法進展決定逐步結束 ERTC 計劃，就業持續放緩我們的客戶群的成長和實現率的略低，所有這些因素結合在一起造成了不利因素——比我們本季預期的更大的不利因素。

With the end of the ERTC program, we are now officially in the post-pandemic era at Paychex. And I will tell you, I am very pleased with how our teams have performed during these past several years. We put nearly $90 billion of financial aid into the hands of our clients. And based upon an analysis by MIT, we estimate that we saved over 300,000 small business jobs.

隨著 ERTC 計畫的結束，Paychex 現在正式進入後疫情時代。我會告訴你，我對我們團隊在過去幾年的表現感到非常滿意。我們向客戶提供了近 900 億美元的財政援助。根據麻省理工學院的分析，我們估計我們挽救了超過 30 萬個小型企業工作。

While these pandemic era programs are not part of our normal reoccurring revenue product strategy or our business model at Paychex, they were certainly consistent with our purpose, and that's simply to help businesses succeed. And I believe that we are a better company today than when we entered the pandemic 4 years ago.

雖然這些大流行時代的計畫不是我們正常的經常性收入產品策略或 Paychex 商業模式的一部分，但它們肯定與我們的目標一致，那就是幫助企業取得成功。我相信，與四年前疫情爆發時相比，我們今天是一家更好的公司。

We are winning in the marketplace, and our long proven recurring revenue growth formula still holds true in this post-pandemic and digitally driven era for the company. Focused client growth, value-based price realization, increased product penetration and opportunistic acquisitions are still the key pillars of the Paychex growth strategy.

我們正在市場上獲勝，我們長期被證明的經常性收入成長公式在這個後流行病和數位驅動的時代仍然適用於公司。專注於客戶成長、基於價值的價格實現、提高產品滲透率和機會性收購仍然是 Paychex 成長策略的關鍵支柱。

We are exiting the pandemic era with an even greater focus on our purpose, more opportunities to impact our clients and their employees and with an even stronger reputation as a trusted adviser to small and midsized business owners.

我們正在退出大流行時代，更加關注我們的目標，有更多機會影響我們的客戶及其員工，並且作為中小型企業主值得信賴的顧問擁有更強大的聲譽。

Despite the headwinds in the quarter, we delivered 7% growth in diluted earnings per share and expanded operating margins due to our longstanding tradition of expense discipline. As one of the best operators in the business, we continued to demonstrate our ability to deliver on earnings in uncertain times and still make the necessary strategic investments to drive long-term profitable growth.

儘管本季面臨不利因素，但由於我們長期以來的費用紀律傳統，我們的稀釋每股收益仍實現了 7% 的成長，營業利潤率也有所擴大。作為業內最好的運營商之一，我們繼續證明我們有能力在不確定的時期實現盈利，並仍然進行必要的戰略投資以推動長期盈利增長。

Our culture of expense management along with investments we've made the past several years in digitization and enhanced sales and operational excellence capabilities have positioned us well for future profitable growth as well.

我們的費用管理文化以及過去幾年在數位化方面的投資以及增強的銷售和卓越營運能力也為我們未來的獲利成長奠定了良好的基礎。

The macroeconomic and labor market remains challenging for small and midsized businesses. A tight job market for qualified workers, reduced access to affordable growth capital and inflationary pressures continue to be headwinds for small businesses. Our small business employment watch continues to show moderation in both job growth and wage inflation but, however, a relatively stable macro environment.

宏觀經濟和勞動力市場對中小企業來說仍然充滿挑戰。合格工人的就業市場緊張、獲得負擔得起的成長資本的機會減少以及通膨壓力仍然是小企業面臨的阻力。我們的小型企業就業觀察繼續顯示就業成長和薪資通膨放緩，但宏觀環境相對穩定。

The softening in hiring we started to see in the second quarter continued in the third quarter. There is more choppiness in hiring across all customer segments and industries now. Our clients tell us they still can't find qualified employees and are not willing to hire just anyone at higher wage rates, especially in areas with recent minimum wage increases and aggressive legislative changes.

我們在第二季開始看到的招募疲軟現像在第三季仍在持續。現在，所有客戶群和行業的招募都更加不穩定。我們的客戶告訴我們，他們仍然找不到合格的員工，也不願意以更高的工資率僱用任何人，特別是在最近最低工資上漲和積極立法變革的地區。

The demand for our HR technology and advisory solutions remains robust, and the volumes of new clients added in the quarter were strong. We continued to deliver value for our customers as seen on our revenue retention results, which remain above pre-pandemic levels.

對我們的人力資源技術和諮詢解決方案的需求仍然強勁，本季新增客戶數量也很強勁。從我們的收入保留結果來看，我們繼續為客戶提供價值，該結果仍高於疫情前的水平。

Client retention for the third quarter was also in line with pre-pandemic levels. And both revenue and HR outsourcing worksite employee retention remained at record levels as we continue to focus our resources on acquiring and retaining high-value clients. Our sustained high revenue retention demonstrates that our value proposition and our market leadership remain intact. The fundamentals of Paychex are sound.

第三季的客戶保留率也與疫情前的水準一致。隨著我們繼續將資源集中在獲取和留住高價值客戶上，收入和人力資源外包工作場所的員工保留率都保持在創紀錄的水平。我們持續的高收入保留表明我們的價值主張和市場領導地位仍然完好無損。 Paychex 的基本面是健全的。

I'd like to highlight the success in our PEO business specifically, which has continued to gain momentum with strong results during the first 9 months of the fiscal year. We finished the quarter with strong results in sales, retention and insurance enrollment. We have continued to see a shift back towards the PEO offering, both outside and inside our client base. This shift mix has a long-term positive impact on the customer lifetime value on our model, particularly as clients attach insurance benefits.

我想特別強調我們的 PEO 業務所取得的成功，該業務在本財年的前 9 個月中繼續保持強勁勢頭，取得了強勁的業績。本季末，我們在銷售、保留率和保險註冊方面取得了強勁的業績。無論是在我們的客戶群外部還是內部，我們都繼續看到向 PEO 產品的轉變。這種輪班組合對我們模型中的客戶終身價值產生長期正面影響，特別是當客戶附加保險福利時。

AI and related technology investments are also key areas of focus in our industry and something that, as many of you know, we've been focused on for many years. We are proud to announce that we successfully implemented in the quarter several additional innovative AI models that significantly improved results for Paychex and our clients. Leveraging innovative technology and advanced analytics has allowed us to gain deeper insights into prospects and client behavior, their preferences and their growing needs.

人工智慧和相關技術投資也是我們行業關注的關鍵領域，正如你們許多人所知，我們多年來一直關注這一領域。我們很自豪地宣布，我們在本季度成功實施了幾個額外的創新人工智慧模型，顯著改善了 Paychex 和我們客戶的業績。利用創新技術和先進的分析使我們能夠更深入地了解潛在客戶和客戶的行為、他們的偏好和不斷增長的需求。

Last month, we announced that Beaumont Vance has joined the company as our Senior Vice President of Data Analytics and AI. In this newly created role, he will be responsible for refining and executing the company's data strategy, including the use of business intelligence, advanced analytics and AI-driven automation to drive both improved business performance and enhance customer value. We are excited to have Beaumont on board to help us capture the full value of our vast data assets.

上個月，我們宣布 Beaumont Vance 已加入公司，擔任數據分析和人工智慧高級副總裁。在這個新創建的職位中，他將負責完善和執行公司的數據策略，包括使用商業智慧、高級分析和人工智慧驅動的自動化來推動改善業務績效並提高客戶價值。我們很高興博蒙特加入，幫助我們充分發揮大量資料資產的價值。

I want to thank -- thanks to the hard work of our more than 16,000 employees and their focus on our company's values. Paychex continues to be recognized for both what we do and, more importantly, in my opinion, how we do it. We are proud to be recognized for the 16th time by Ethisphere as one of the world's Most Ethical Companies in their recent annual list. Paychex was also recently recognized by Fortune Magazine as one of the Most Innovative Companies for the second consecutive year.

我要感謝——感謝我們 16,000 多名員工的辛勤工作以及他們對我們公司價值觀的關注。 Paychex 繼續因我們所做的事情以及更重要的是，在我看來，我們的工作方式而受到認可。我們很榮幸在 Ethisphere 最近的年度榜單中第 16 次被評為全球最具商業道德公司之一。 Paychex 最近也連續第二年被《財星》雜誌評為最具創新力的公司之一。

These recognitions and the many product and service awards that we have received in the past year and over the decades is a testament to the strength of our business model, culture and the commitment to invest in our business and our employees to deliver long-term value for our customers and investors.

這些認可以及我們在過去一年和幾十年來獲得的許多產品和服務獎項證明了我們商業模式、文化的實力以及對我們的業務和員工進行投資以提供長期價值的承諾為我們的客戶和投資者。

I'm very proud of how our employees have delivered for our customers, for each other, for our communities and for our shareholders throughout the pandemic era. We exit the -- this period in Paychex's history more focused and determined to be the digital -- digitally driven HR leader in our industry, and we are even better positioned to capture the opportunities in the markets we serve.

我對我們的員工在整個疫情期間為客戶、彼此、社區和股東所做的貢獻感到非常自豪。我們退出了 Paychex 歷史上的這段時期，更加專注並決心成為行業中數位化驅動的人力資源領導者，並且我們更有能力抓住我們所服務的市場中的機會。

I'll now turn it over to Bob to give you a brief update on our financial results for the quarter.

現在我將把它交給鮑勃，向您簡要介紹我們本季度的財務業績。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start by reminding everyone that today's commentary will contain certain forward-looking statements that refer to future events and, therefore, involve some risks. In addition, I will periodically refer to some non-GAAP measures, like adjusted diluted earnings per share. I'd refer you to our press release for our customary disclosures around those metrics.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。首先我想提醒大家，今天的評論將包含某些涉及未來事件的前瞻性陳述，因此涉及一些風險。此外，我會定期提及一些非公認會計準則指標，例如調整後的稀釋每股盈餘。我建議您參閱我們的新聞稿，以了解我們圍繞這些指標的慣例披露。

I'll start with a summary of our third quarter and year-to-date financial results and then provide an update on our fiscal '24 outlook. And as promised to many of you on the phone, I will share some preliminary thoughts around fiscal '25.

我將首先總結我們第三季和年初至今的財務業績，然後提供我們 24 財年展望的最新情況。正如我在電話中向你們許多人承諾的那樣，我將分享一些關於 25 財年的初步想法。

Total revenue for the quarter increased 4% to $1.4 billion, which reflects a lower contribution from our ERTC as compared to the prior year quarter. Management Solutions revenue increased 2% to $1 billion. This was primarily driven by growth in the number of clients served across our suite of HCM solutions and increased product penetration, and that was offset by the decline in our ERTC revenue. And as we disclosed in the press release, that was impacted -- impacted the growth by about 300 basis points.

本季總營收成長 4%，達到 14 億美元，反映出我們 ERTC 的貢獻低於去年同期。管理解決方案營收成長 2%，達到 10 億美元。這主要是由於我們的 HCM 解決方案套件所服務的客戶數量的增長以及產品滲透率的提高所推動的，但這被我們的 ERTC 收入的下降所抵消。正如我們在新聞稿中披露的那樣，這受到了影響——增長影響了約 300 個基點。

PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue increased 8% to $346 million, that was driven by higher average worksite employees and an increase in our PEO and Insurance revenues. Our PEO saw continued momentum in worksite employee growth and medical plan participant volumes during the third quarter.

PEO 和保險解決方案收入成長 8%，達到 3.46 億美元，這是由於平均工作場所員工人數增加以及我們的 PEO 和保險收入增加所推動的。第三季度，我們的 PEO 看到工作場所員工成長和醫療計畫參與者數量持續成長。

Interest on funds held for clients increased 25% to $44 million, primarily due to higher average interest rates.

為客戶持有的資金利息增加了 25%，達到 4,400 萬美元，主要是由於平均利率上升。

Total expenses increased 3% to $790 million. Expense growth was attributable to higher compensation costs and PEO direct insurance costs related to the higher average worksite employees as well as the higher Insurance revenues during the quarter.

總支出成長 3%，達到 7.9 億美元。費用成長歸因於與平均工作場所員工數量增加相關的補償成本和 PEO 直接保險成本的增加以及本季保險收入的增加。

Operating income increased 6% to $650 million with an operating margin for the quarter of 45.1%. That represents about 80 basis points of margin expansion over the prior year period. I would like to highlight that is -- that margin expansion is despite the ERTC headwind that we just called out. We were still able to deliver really strong margin expansion in the quarter. And I think as many of you know, ERTC is pretty much like interest rates. It's pretty much all margin.

本季營業收入成長 6%，達到 6.5 億美元，營業利益率為 45.1%。這意味著利潤率較上年同期成長約 80 個基點。我想強調的是，儘管我們剛剛指出了 ERTC 的逆風，但利潤率仍在擴張。本季我們仍然能夠實現非常強勁的利潤率擴張。我想你們很多人都知道，ERTC 與利率非常相似。幾乎都是保證金。

Both diluted earnings per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 7% to $1.38.

稀釋每股收益和調整後稀釋每股收益均成長 7%，達到 1.38 美元。

I'll quickly summarize our results for the year-to-date period. Total revenue grew 5% to $4 billion. Management Solutions revenue increased 4% to $2.9 billion. PEO and Insurance Solutions increased 7% to $939 million. And interest on funds held for clients increased 44% to $108 million.

我將快速總結我們今年迄今的業績。總營收成長 5%，達到 40 億美元。管理解決方案營收成長 4%，達到 29 億美元。 PEO 和保險解決方案成長了 7%，達到 9.39 億美元。為客戶持有的資金利息增加了 44%，達到 1.08 億美元。

Total expenses for the first 9 months grew 4% to $2.3 billion, and our operating margins for the first 9 months of the year were 42.5%, and that's a 70 basis point expansion over the prior year period.

前 9 個月的總支出成長了 4%，達到 23 億美元，今年前 9 個月的營業利潤率為 42.5%，比去年同期成長了 70 個基點。

Diluted earnings per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share both increased 9% year-over-year to $3.62 and $3.60, respectively.

稀釋每股盈餘和調整後稀釋每股盈餘均較去年同期成長 9%，分別達到 3.62 美元和 3.60 美元。

I'll now give you a quick overview of our financial position. As many of you know, we maintain a strong financial position with high-quality cash flows and earnings generation. Our balance for cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments was $1.8 billion. And our total borrowings were approximately $817 million as of the end of the quarter.

現在我將向您簡要介紹我們的財務狀況。正如你們許多人所知，我們保持著強勁的財務狀況，擁有高品質的現金流和創收能力。我們的現金、限制性現金和企業投資總額餘額為 18 億美元。截至本季末，我們的總借款約為 8.17 億美元。

Cash flow from operations for the first 9 months was $1.7 billion, that's up 30% compared to the same period last year. That was driven primarily by higher net income and fluctuations in working capital.

前 9 個月的營運現金流為 17 億美元，比去年同期成長 30%。這主要是由於淨利潤增加和營運資本波動所致。

And we returned a total of $1.1 billion to shareholders through the first 9 months of the year. That includes $963 million in dividends and $169 million of share repurchases. And our 12-month rolling return on equity remains robust at 47%.

今年前 9 個月，我們總共向股東返還了 11 億美元。其中包括 9.63 億美元的股息和 1.69 億美元的股票回購。我們的 12 個月滾動股本回報率仍保持在 47% 的強勁水準。

I'll now turn to our updated guidance for the current fiscal year. This outlook assumes the current macro environment, which obviously had some level of uncertainty. We have revised our guidance on certain measures based on performance this quarter, and this also reflects the impact of our decision to wind down our ERTC service based on recently proposed legislation.

我現在將談談我們對本財年的最新指導。這前景假設當前的宏觀環境顯然存在一定程度的不確定性。我們根據本季度的業績修訂了對某些措施的指導，這也反映了我們根據最近擬議的立法決定減少 ERTC 服務的影響。

I just want to pause there from my prepared remarks to provide a little bit more color on ERTC. I think many of you guys are aware that there is bipartisan legislation out there that would end the ERTC program retro to January 31 of this year. I think it's passed the House. It hasn't yet passed the Senate, but that does create a level of uncertainty around ERTC. We continue to sell it in the month of February. We made a decision based on that level of uncertainty to stop recognizing the revenue on ERTC subject to -- or subsequent to January 31, and we've essentially removed it from the forecast in Q4. And so that's part of what you see as it relates to the impact to the quarter and also impacts the guidance that -- the updated guidance that I'm about to give you for the year.

我只是想在我準備好的發言中暫停一下，為 ERTC 提供更多的資訊。我想你們很多人都知道，兩黨立法將把 ERTC 計畫的復古期限推遲到今年 1 月 31 日。我認為眾議院已經通過了。該法案尚未在參議院獲得通過，但這確實為 ERTC 帶來了一定程度的不確定性。我們在二月繼續銷售它。基於這種不確定性，我們決定在 1 月 31 日或之後停止確認 ERTC 的收入，並且我們基本上已將其從第四季度的預測中刪除。因此，這是您所看到的一部分，因為它與對本季度的影響有關，也影響了我即將向您提供的今年的最新指導。

Management Solutions is now expected to grow in the range of 3.5% to 4%. We previously had guided to the lower end of the 5% to 6% range. PEO and Insurance is still expected to grow in the range of 7% to 9%, although we now expect that it will be more towards the lower end of that range. Interest on funds held for clients is still expected to be in the range of $140 million to $150 million.

管理解決方案目前預計將成長 3.5% 至 4%。我們先前的指導價為 5% 至 6% 範圍的下限。 PEO 和保險業務預計仍將成長 7% 至 9%，儘管我們現在預計成長將更接近該範圍的下限。為客戶持有的資金利息預計仍將在 1.4 億至 1.5 億美元之間。

Total revenue is now expected to grow in the range of 5% to 6%. Our prior guidance was 6% to 7%. Other income net is expected to be income in the range of $40 million to $45 million, and this is raised from the previous guidance of $35 million to $40 million.

目前預計總收入將成長 5% 至 6%。我們之前的指導是 6% 到 7%。其他收入淨額預計為 4,000 萬至 4,500 萬美元，較先前指導的 3,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元有所提高。

Our guidance for operating margins and effective tax rate are unchanged, although we still do anticipate being at the high end of the operating margin guidance range, which was 41% to 42%. And adjusted diluted earnings per share is still expected to grow in the range of 10% to 11%.

我們對營業利潤率和有效稅率的指導保持不變，但我們仍然預期營業利潤率指導範圍的高端，即 41% 至 42%。調整後的稀釋每股盈餘預計仍將成長10%至11%。

Now let me just provide a little bit of color on the fourth quarter. We are currently anticipating total revenue growth to be approximately 5% in Q4. We expect the ERTC headwind to Management Solutions growth in the fourth quarter to be similar to what it was in the third quarter. And we would also expect the operating margins to be around 40% in the quarter.

現在讓我對第四季進行一些介紹。我們目前預計第四季總營收成長約為 5%。我們預計第四季度 ERTC 對管理解決方案成長的不利影響將與第三季相似。我們也預計本季的營業利潤率約為 40%。

We are currently in the middle of our annual budget process and working on our expectations for the next fiscal year. We obviously will provide formal guidance like we normally do at the end of the Q4 when we get to that call. However, I will share some preliminary thoughts, and I will emphasize the word preliminary around what we're expecting for fiscal '25.

我們目前正處於年度預算流程的中期，並致力於對下一財政年度的預期。顯然，我們會像通常在第四季末接到電話會議時那樣提供正式指導。不過，我將分享一些初步的想法，我將強調「初步」一詞，圍繞著我們對 25 財年的預期。

On a preliminary basis, we would expect total revenue growth to be consistent with the fourth quarter growth rate. And as a reminder, as I just told you, that would be in the 5% range. And this does include a headwind from ERTC of approximately 2%. I mean, ERTC, for all intents and purposes, is 0 going forward. I know what that headwind is going to be. I know what the dollar amount was this year, and it will be approximately a 2% headwind to revenue growth for FY '25. And that is assumed in the 5% range number that I gave you. And then despite this headwind, we are committed to delivering operating margin expansion in fiscal '25.

初步來看，我們預計總收入成長將與第四季度的成長率保持一致。提醒一下，正如我剛才告訴你的，這個比例在 5% 的範圍內。這確實包括來自 ERTC 約 2% 的阻力。我的意思是，無論出於何種意圖和目的，ERTC 未來的得分都是 0。我知道逆風會是什麼。我知道今年的金額是多少，25 財年的營收成長將受到約 2% 的阻力。這是我給你的 5% 範圍數字中假設的。儘管有這種阻力，我們仍致力於在 25 財年實現營業利潤率擴張。

We are still going through the annual budget process, working through the details. We'll provide more color as we get to the end of the year. Obviously, this is based on our current assumptions, which we are still working through. Those may change, but we'll update you again when we get to the fourth quarter. I will refer you to our investor slides on our website for additional information.

我們仍在進行年度預算流程，研究細節。到年底我們將提供更多顏色。顯然，這是基於我們目前的假設，我們仍在研究這個假設。這些可能會發生變化，但我們會在第四季度時再次更新您的資訊。我將向您推薦我們網站上的投資者幻燈片以獲取更多資訊。

And with that, I'll turn it back over to John.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給約翰。

Okay. Thank you, Bob. Mike, we'll now open it up for questions.

好的。謝謝你，鮑伯。麥克，我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) And we do have our first question from Mark Marcon with Baird.

（操作員說明）我們確實收到了 Mark Marcon 向 Baird 提出的第一個問題。

So ERTC, just one thing just to clarify, Bob. When you talked about that you sold it in February, but because of the legislation, you're going to end. It's basically bipartisan and it's basically going to end retroactively in January 1. So you then stopped recognizing the revenue.

ERTC，鮑勃，我只想澄清一件事。當你談到你在二月賣掉它時，但由於立法，你將結束。它基本上是兩黨合作的，基本上會在 1 月 1 日追溯結束。所以你就不再確認收入了。

Did you -- is any ERTC revenue from -- that you sold from January 1 through February actually included in the third quarter number that you just reported?

您從 1 月 1 日到 2 月期間銷售的 ERTC 收入是否實際包含在您剛剛報告的第三季數據中？

Yes. Everything that we sold and filed in the month of January, Mark, is included in the quarter, but nothing beyond January 31. So we continue to sell it in the month of February. I would say the faucet was still running steady in February on ERTC, and we made the decision not to recognize revenue around that just because there's so much uncertainty.

是的。馬克，我們在 1 月出售和歸檔的所有東西都包含在該季度中，但 1 月 31 日之後就沒有了。所以我們繼續在 2 月出售它。我想說 ERTC 的水龍頭在 2 月仍然穩定運行，我們決定不確認相關收入，只是因為存在太多不確定性。

And obviously, we're telling our clients that because of that level of uncertainty, if that bill does pass, we would not -- we would refund their monies for the service that we sold in the month of February.

顯然，我們告訴我們的客戶，由於這種不確定性，如果該法案確實通過，我們不會——我們將退還他們在二月出售的服務的款項。

So we think it's the right decision from an accounting standpoint to stop recognizing revenue on it. And then I would just say, as we move forward in the month of February, that faucet has slowed to a drip on ERTC. Obviously, we're not focused on it, and it's -- there's probably a little bit that came in, in March, but that was probably stuff that we already had kind of in the queue that we were still processing. It's pretty much that program is over. And yes -- yes, go ahead.

因此，我們認為從會計角度來看，停止確認收入是正確的決定。然後我想說，隨著我們在 2 月前進，ERTC 上的水龍頭已經放慢了速度。顯然，我們並沒有關注它，三月可能會有一些進來，但這可能是我們已經在隊列中仍在處理的東西。節目差不多就結束了。是的——是的，繼續吧。

I mean, just related to the guide that you were providing, I was -- obviously, for the third quarter within Management Solutions because of the ERTC headwind, things were tougher. And it seems like you actually did see some acceleration ex ERTC on total revenue.

我的意思是，與您提供的指南相關，顯然，由於 ERTC 的逆風，管理解決方案第三季度的情況變得更加艱難。看起來您確實看到了 ERTC 總收入的成長。

So I was just wondering, is there any way to quantify the impact in terms of not recognizing that revenue in February just because, obviously, you were anticipating that coming in? So any thoughts there?

所以我只是想知道，是否有任何方法可以量化不承認二月收入的影響，因為很明顯，你預計會出現這種情況？那麼有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. I mean, high level, Mark, I mean, we provided guidance for the quarter. I think we -- you guys know what the guidance was that we provided for the quarter. The Q3 actually came in maybe about 100 basis points in that range lower than what we had said.

是的。我的意思是，高層，馬克，我的意思是，我們為本季提供了指導。我想我們——你們知道我們為本季提供的指導是什麼。第三季實際上可能比我們所說的低 100 個基點。

And I would say probably 1/3 or a little bit more of that was related to the decision that we took on ERTC. So you could probably do the math on that and back in to get to a number that's close to the impact in February.

我想說，其中 1/3 或更多與我們對 ERTC 的決定有關。因此，您可能可以對此進行數學計算，然後返回接近二月影響的數字。

Okay. Great. And then with regards to the margin expansion, obviously, that's very encouraging, especially when you're not getting that benefit from ERTC.

好的。偉大的。然後，就利潤率擴張而言，顯然，這是非常令人鼓舞的，尤其是當您沒有從 ERTC 中獲得這種好處時。

What are the key drivers in terms of that? Is it the AI initiatives? Is it efficiency on the sales side? What's driving the margin expansion? And to -- how do you think -- to what extent do you think you're going to be able to continue that strong progress?

這方面的關鍵驅動因素是什麼？是人工智慧舉措嗎？是銷售方面的效率嗎？是什麼推動利潤率擴張？您認為自己能夠在多大程度上繼續取得如此強勁的進展？

Yes. Mark, this is John here. Again, as you know, we pride ourselves in being the best operators in the industry and have the DNA of -- and we know the levers to pull as we see the type of trends that we see.

是的。馬克，這是約翰。再次強調，如您所知，我們為自己是業內最好的運營商而感到自豪，並且擁有這樣的基因——當我們看到我們所看到的趨勢類型時，我們知道可以拉動的槓桿。

So we've certainly done those, what I would say, typical things, but the deeper question you're asking is the right one. The fact of the matter is over the past 3 years, we've done a lot of investments as we've had the opportunity with the ERTC benefit to make a lot of investments in the business.

所以我們確實做了這些，我想說的是，典型的事情，但你問的更深層的問題是正確的。事實上，在過去 3 年裡，我們進行了大量投資，因為我們有機會利用 ERTC 福利對業務進行大量投資。

We really focus that investment around our digitalization and digital adoption capabilities. We've built global capabilities in our operations footprint. And we started to really roll that out and really test and pilot that over the course of this fiscal year.

我們真正將投資重點放在我們的數位化和數位採用能力上。我們在營運足跡中建立了全球能力。我們開始在本財年真正推出並測試和試點。

And particularly during selling season, a lot of the enhancements both on the client service and retention side as well as the digital onboarding across each of our platforms, we launched a series of products that demonstrated to us at scale that we can drive stronger operational and sales efficiency in our model.

特別是在銷售季節，我們在客戶服務和保留方面以及每個平台上的數位化方面都進行了很多增強，我們推出了一系列產品，向我們大規模展示了我們可以推動更強大的營運和我們模型中的銷售效率。

And so we're going to continue to double down on that and continue to look for opportunities that we can drive digital transformation in our back office, drive digital adoption by our prospects and channel partners, clients and their employees. And we believe that's going to continue to drive margin expansion. That's what we've seen in these tests and pilots. And now we're really starting to push and roll that out at scale.

因此，我們將繼續加倍努力，繼續尋找機會推動後台數位化轉型，推動我們的潛在客戶和通路合作夥伴、客戶及其員工採用數位化。我們相信這將繼續推動利潤率擴張。這就是我們在這些測試和試點中看到的情況。現在我們真正開始大規模推動和推出這一點。

And we have our next question from Kevin McVeigh with UBS.

瑞銀集團的凱文麥克維 (Kevin McVeigh) 提出了下一個問題。

On the execution, I guess, Bob, just would be for you, the '25 guidance preliminary, pretty helpful. Any sense of what type of macro environment you're factoring into that, I guess, from an employment perspective more broadly?

在執行方面，我想，鮑勃，25 年初步指南非常適合您，非常有幫助。我想，從更廣泛的就業角度來看，您是否知道您將哪種類型的宏觀環境考慮在內？

Yes. Kevin, I mean, we're still going through and finalizing all of our assumptions. But I would say at this point in time, we would assume a fairly stable, steady macro environment. Obviously, there's an expectation that the Fed is going to start cutting rates later this year. We do have some of that factored in at this point in time.

是的。凱文，我的意思是，我們仍在研究並最終確定我們的所有假設。但我想說，在這個時候，我們會假設一個相當穩定的宏觀環境。顯然，人們預計聯準會將在今年稍晚開始降息。目前我們確實考慮了其中的一些因素。

But I would say, overall, the assumption is a fairly steady state macro environment, with some expectation that there'll be rate cuts as we move into the fiscal year.

但我想說，總體而言，假設是一個相當穩定的國家宏觀環境，有些人預計，隨著我們進入本財年，利率將會下調。

Yes. I think, Kevin, I would just add on that on the macro side. We are adjusting our view and have adjusted our view even more as we looked at the third quarter based upon some of the hiring dynamics that we're seeing in the client base because there is somewhat of a disconnect when you look at an economy that's growing at 3% to 3.5%, high 2s, even if you go back and what you're seeing from a hiring perspective.

是的。我想，凱文，我只想在宏觀方面補充這一點。我們正在調整我們的觀點，並且根據我們在客戶群中看到的一些招聘動態來看待第三季度，我們已經進一步調整了我們的觀點，因為當你看到經濟成長時，存在一定的脫節3%到3.5%，高2s，即使你回顧你從招募角度看到的情況。

And I would say the state of hiring in small businesses continues to be a challenge. I think it's a labor issue. It's not a demand issue. What we continue to see is clients telling us they're having trouble filling open positions and, quite frankly, with qualified candidates. I think one of the things that our HR professionals that are engaged, as you know, we have about 2.2 million of our client worksite employees under management by our HR team. So as we saw some of the trends we saw that were disconnected from our models in a 3% GDP economy, why weren't we seeing the hiring that we would have anticipated happening in the base.

我想說，小企業的招募狀況仍然是一個挑戰。我認為這是一個勞工問題。這不是需求問題。我們不斷看到客戶告訴我們，他們在填補空缺職位方面遇到了困難，坦白說，也很難找到合格的候選人。我認為我們的人力資源專業人員所從事的事情之一，如您所知，我們的人力資源團隊管理著大約 220 萬名客戶工作場所員工。因此，當我們看到一些與我們在 3% GDP 經濟中的模型脫節的趨勢時，為什麼我們沒有看到我們預期在基地發生的招募情況。

We had active structured dialogues with those clients, and what we're hearing is, is that they have open positions. They want to hire. They can't find qualified people. And I think they had been [firm] through the course of the pandemic in hiring just anyone. And so they're not willing to do that at the current labor rate.

我們與這些客戶進行了積極的結構化對話，我們聽到的是，他們有開放的立場。他們想僱用。他們找不到合格的人。我認為他們在疫情期間一直[堅定地]僱用任何人。因此，以目前的勞動力價格，他們不願意這樣做。

So the macro environment that we see, you look at our job index, continued moderation in hiring, continued moderation in wage inflation. We saw that January and February. I would say this December, January and February, if you look at our releases, continued to show moderation. And actually, January and February were the first 2 months in our index still over 100, still showing growth, but those were the first 2 months that we actually saw growth under pre-pandemic levels.

因此，我們看到的宏觀環境，你看看我們的就業指數，招聘持續放緩，薪資通膨持續放緩。我們看到了一月和二月。我想說，今年 12 月、1 月和 2 月，如果你看看我們的發布，你會發現繼續表現出節制。實際上，1 月和 2 月是我們的指數仍然超過 100 的前兩個月，仍然顯示出增長，但那是我們實際上在大流行前水平下看到增長的前兩個月。

And so stay tuned. Tomorrow, we'll release the March one, but what I would tell you is that what we see is a moderating economy. We see a stable economy. We don't see signs of a recession. We don't see all the other -- demand was strong. Our pipeline was strong.

請繼續關注。明天，我們將發布三月的報告，但我要告訴你的是，我們看到的是經濟放緩。我們看到經濟穩定。我們沒有看到經濟衰退的跡象。我們沒有看到其他所有的情況——需求很強勁。我們的管道很強大。

The other things that you would typically see that would be more recessionary, we're not seeing mass layoffs. We're not seeing layoffs across. What we're seeing is openings, vacancies, trouble hiring and businesses being cautious in who they're bringing into their workforce.

您通常會看到的其他更具衰退性的事情，我們沒有看到大規模裁員。我們沒有看到裁員。我們看到的是職缺、職缺、招募困難以及企業在招募員工方面持謹慎態度。

Lot of sense. And then, John, just to follow up on that point. Is that -- is kind of that tight labor what's driving kind of the re-enrollment on the Insurance side of the PEO? Or just anything to call out in terms of what's been driving that?

很有道理。然後，約翰，我想跟進這一點。是不是勞動力緊張推動了 PEO 保險部門的重新註冊？或者只是有什麼需要指出的推動因素？

I think on the PEO enrollment, I want to really give credit to the team there. I think, as you recall, a year ago, a little over a year ago, this was a challenging area for us. We were seeing things. Participation rates weren't as high. Attachment wasn't as high.

我認為在 PEO 招生方面，我想真正讚揚那裡的團隊。我想，正如你所記得的，一年前，一年多前，這對我們來說是一個充滿挑戰的領域。我們正在看到一些事情。參與率沒有那麼高。依戀度沒有那麼高。

We really look at all aspects of both our product, our insurance product offerings, our enrollment processes and how we engage employees around that top to bottom. And we made some changes in both the product offerings we have as well as we approach clients and the employees in our insurance offerings in the PEO. And I think the team has done a good job there.

我們真正關注我們的產品、我們的保險產品、我們的註冊流程以及我們如何從上到下吸引員工的各個方面。我們對我們提供的產品以及我們在 PEO 中向客戶和員工提供的保險產品進行了一些更改。我認為團隊在那裡做得很好。

And what we've seen is now we're back to at to slightly above attachment rates, and our participation rates are back to our historical norm. So I think that was a little bit more of an execution issue than any macro item.

我們所看到的是，現在我們的依戀率回到了略高於的水平，我們的參與率也回到了歷史正常水平。所以我認為這比任何宏觀專案更像是執行問題。

And we have our next question from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的黃天欽提出了下一個問題。

I wanted to ask on PEO. I know the commentary around sales retention and attach was quite strong, and then you moved into the low end. I'm just curious if maybe you can elaborate on that and maybe your initial thinking around PEO momentum going into next year as well because I know that was something that we were tracking.

我想問PEO。我知道有關銷售保留和附加的評論非常強烈，然後你就進入了低端市場。我只是好奇您是否可以詳細說明這一點，以及您對明年 PEO 勢頭的初步想法，因為我知道這是我們正在跟踪的事情。

Yes. You want me to -- go ahead.

是的。你要我——繼續。

Yes -- go ahead. So I'll just start with the -- no, no, no. So I'd say the big driver of maybe guiding more towards the lower end of the range was with the employment headwinds that John called out in the script.

好，去吧。所以我將從——不，不，不開始。因此，我想說，可能引導更多人走向該範圍低端的主要動力是約翰在劇本中指出的就業逆風。

We continue to see moderation in employment, and that really was across the board. For the most part, the PEO has been able to outrun it with strong execution, both in sales retention. We mentioned we continued to see record levels of worksite employee retention. Really strong worksite employee growth in that business. And then really getting our medical insurance attachment and volumes back to where we see it. So it's really a little bit of the macro headwind.

我們繼續看到就業放緩，這確實是全面的。在大多數情況下，PEO 憑藉強大的執行力，在銷售保留方面都能夠超越它。我們提到，我們繼續看到現場員工留任率創歷史新高。該業務中的現場員工成長非常強勁。然後真正讓我們的醫療保險附件和捲回到我們看到的位置。所以這確實是宏觀逆風的一點。

And the other thing I'll call out on the PEO, I think the print is strong at 8%. But as you guys know, that category is PEO and Insurance, and Insurance is typically dilutive to the growth of that overall category. So I would say that the PEO standalone growth is north of that number, obviously, that we gave you. So really strong performance in the PEO business.

我要在 PEO 上指出的另一件事是，我認為 8% 的支持率很高。但正如你們所知，這個類別是 PEO 和保險，而保險通常會稀釋整個類別的成長。所以我想說，PEO 的獨立成長顯然超出了我們給您的數字。 PEO 業務的表現確實強勁。

And we're building momentum, and we see that carrying into next year. I'm not ready to give splits on next year between Management Solutions and the PEO, but we certainly would expect the PEO and Insurance to grow at a faster overall rate than the total revenue growth that I gave you.

我們正在積蓄動力，我們預計這種勢頭會延續到明年。我還沒準備好明年在管理解決方案和 PEO 之間進行分配，但我們當然希望 PEO 和保險的整體成長速度比我給您的總收入成長速度更快。

Got it. Okay. Very clear. So it's just really the employment side that's out of your control. Perfect. So my quick follow-up, just on the pricing front among the 3 factors. You mentioned pricing last. Any more color on the pricing? Is it more discounting that you're seeing? And I'm curious if that informs your typical price action that you would take in the May or the spring time frame. And if that's baked into your look-ahead or preliminary '25 outlook.

知道了。好的。非常清楚。所以，就業方面確實是你無法控制的。完美的。所以我的快速跟進，只是在三個因素中的定價方面。您最後提到了定價。價格還有更多顏色嗎？你看到的折扣是不是比較多？我很好奇這是否會影響您在五月或春季時間範圍內採取的典型價格行為。如果這已納入您的展望或初步的 25 年展望中。

That is a broad question. So if I missed something, you come back, Tien-Tsin. But here's what I would say. We're still able to go into the market and command our traditional value-based pricing for the value we provide. I think you can see that in the retention.

這是一個廣泛的問題。所以如果我錯過了什麼，你就回來吧，田津。但這就是我要說的。我們仍然能夠進入市場並為我們提供的價值掌握傳統的基於價值的定價。我想你可以從保留中看到這一點。

And what I would tell you is, again, and I'll be so glad when I don't have to use this word again, which I think will probably be 12 months from now, ex ERTC. When I look at our actual revenue per client was ERTC was in a lot of the pricing bundles that we would sell when you're looking at the data is we're actually seeing that the pricing that we're getting across the various product groups being on par to what we have seen historically.

我要再次告訴你的是，當我不再需要使用這個詞時，我會非常高興，我想這可能是從現在起 12 個月後，前 ERTC。當我查看每個客戶的實際收入時，ERTC 屬於我們出售的許多定價捆綁包，當您查看數據時，我們實際上看到的是我們在各個產品組中獲得的定價與我們歷史上看到的情況相當。

I would remind you that over the last 3 years, we have guided and have said what's been at the high end of our traditional range. And I think that our assumption is as we go into the post-pandemic era that we're going to -- like everything else seems to be going back to the mean to slightly higher.

我想提醒您的是，在過去的三年裡，我們已經指導並說出了我們傳統範圍的高端內容。我認為我們的假設是，當我們進入大流行後時代時，我們將 - 就像其他一切似乎都會回到平均水平略高一樣。

So when I look at retention, again, retention back to kind of pre-pandemic levels, but slightly better. I think that's where you'll see pricing, and we still feel good about where we can go in terms of pricing.

因此，當我再次審視保留率時，保留率回到了大流行前的水平，但略好一些。我認為這就是你會看到定價的地方，我們仍然對定價方面的發展方向感到滿意。

I think the competitive environment, it's always been a competitive environment. I think there were 2 dynamics going on that were interesting to me when I looked at the data. And again, when I'm looking across our 401(k) business, our PEO business, our HCM mid-market business, our small business HCM business, our SurePayroll business, I just -- when I go across our insurance business, the broad set of businesses and look at the third quarter, which is one of our largest volume quarters, and I see the volume hold up to what I expected.

我認為競爭環境，一直都是競爭環境。我認為當我查看數據時，有兩種動態讓我感興趣。再說一遍，當我審視我們的401(k) 業務、我們的PEO 業務、我們的HCM 中端市場業務、我們的小型企業HCM 業務、我們的SurePayroll 業務時，我只是——當我審視我們的保險業務時，廣泛的業務，看看第三季度，這是我們銷量最大的季度之一，我看到銷量符合我的預期。

But what was interesting, the average client size was down in almost all of those slightly, which impacts our realized price, right? You just have less employees, you have less checks. And what I sense is, is that they're in the -- if you think of our business, boulders, rocks and pebbles, right? I think boulders have been harder to move. Less decision. You've heard some other competitors that are more targeted in the upper end of the market talk about extended decision time frames, et cetera.

但有趣的是，幾乎所有這些客戶的平均客戶規模都略有下降，這影響了我們的實現價格，對吧？你只是員工少了，支票也少了。我的感覺是，如果你想到我們的業務，它們就在巨石、岩石和卵石中，對吧？我認為巨石更難移動。更少的決定。您聽說過其他一些更瞄準高端市場的競爭對手談論延長決策時間框架等。

So while we got the volume we expected, we got a little more rocks and pebbles than we expected, which drove a little bit of the rate. And then it was a more competitive environment in terms of both clients from a retention perspective and from a purchase perspective, demanding more and, I would say, being a little more negotiative in their approach, which is kind of what you sense in the economy with high inflation.

因此，雖然我們得到了預期的體積，但我們得到的岩石和卵石比我們預期的要多一些，這稍微提高了速度。然後，從保留的角度和購買的角度來看，這對兩個客戶來說都是一個更具競爭性的環境，要求更多，而且我想說，他們的方法更具談判性，這就是你在經濟中感受到的高通膨。

And we have our next question from Bryan Bergin with TD Cowen.

Bryan Bergin 和 TD Cowen 提出了下一個問題。

I wanted to just dig in a bit more on bookings. Can you just talk about how the third quarter bookings came in relative to your expectations? How 4Q is trending so far? And if you can, give us some added color across client size, PEO versus ASO as well.

我想深入了解預訂情況。您能否談談第三季的預訂量與您的預期相比如何？到目前為止，第四季的趨勢如何？如果可以的話，請提供我們一些針對不同客戶規模、PEO 與 ASO 的附加資訊。

Yes. Brian, I would just probably reiterate what I've kind of already said. We had solid demand for our solutions really across the board. Volumes were in line with our expectations.

是的。布萊恩，我可能會重申我已經說過的話。我們對我們的解決方案有著全面的堅實需求。成交量符合我們的預期。

What I said before is across each one of those sectors, I would say that the average size of the deal that we landed was smaller than what we anticipated than typical. So -- and I'm talking small, small amounts of differences.

我之前所說的是針對每個行業，我想說的是，我們達成的交易的平均規模比我們預期的要小。所以——我說的是很小很小的差異。

But as you all know, in a business of our scale, a small change going from average 1 or 2 employees or 3 or 4 employees or worksite employees per deal, it can have an impact on the revenue you expect.

但眾所周知，在我們這樣規模的企業中，每筆交易平均 1 或 2 名員工或 3 或 4 名員工或現場員工的微小變化，都會對您預期的收入產生影響。

Okay. Understood. And then just on the sales front and sales investment, I guess, can you give us a sense on how sales headcount has trended relative to the start of the year?

好的。明白了。然後，我想，在銷售方面和銷售投資方面，您能否讓我們了解一下銷售人員數量相對於年初的趨勢？

And as you go forward and plan for '25, how are you thinking about adding absolute sales headcount versus trying to lean on more tech investments to drive more productivity?

當您展望 25 世紀的未來時，您如何考慮增加絕對銷售人員數量，而不是嘗試依靠更多技術投資來提高生產力？

Yes. Bryan, I would say this, our sales headcount has been at our expectations through the year. When we went into the selling season, we were at headcount. That's what we reported.

是的。布萊恩，我想說的是，我們的銷售人員數量全年都達到了我們的預期。當我們進入銷售季節時，我們已經在進行人員編制了。這就是我們報道的內容。

I think to your point, we -- what was interesting in the third quarter, when I look holistically across the business, the amount of business we drove digitally across each of the platforms was impressive. And that's approaching some of our other channels that have historically been Paychex's bedrock of where we've gotten business.

我認為就你的觀點而言，第三季有趣的是，當我全面審視整個業務時，我們在每個平台上以數位方式推動的業務量令人印象深刻。這正在接近我們的一些其他管道，這些管道歷來是 Paychex 我們獲得業務的基石。

And so what we're seeing is and what we're doing with digital, I think, will continue to be something. And we're looking at a lot of different go-to-market strategies that we think will drive more productivity in our sales reps. And I think what we're trying to do right now is make sure we're doing the proper territory management, so that we can have even more reps more productive.

因此，我認為我們所看到的以及我們在數字方面所做的事情將繼續有所作為。我們正在研究許多不同的進入市場策略，我們認為這些策略將提高我們銷售代表的生產力。我認為我們現在正在努力做的是確保我們進行適當的區域管理，以便我們可以讓更多的代表更有效率。

So I'm not prepared -- we're still working through our final budget planning process. What I can tell you is that we're driving a lot of productivity on a per rep basis. And we're going to make sure that we're covering every nook and cranny of the market. So making sure how many salespeople do we actually need to go after the market opportunity we have in each of the segments. And I think getting more specific about segment sizes and product type is what we're focused on as part of our new go-to-market strategy going into this post-pandemic era.

所以我還沒準備好——我們仍在製定最終的預算規劃流程。我可以告訴您的是，我們正在提高每個代表的生產力。我們將確保覆蓋市場的每個角落。因此，請確保我們實際上需要多少銷售人員來追求每個細分市場的市場機會。我認為，作為進入後大流行時代的新市場進入策略的一部分，我們重點關注的是更具體地了解細分市場規模和產品類型。

And we have our next question from Samad Samana with Jefferies.

薩馬德·薩馬納 (Samad Samana) 和傑弗里斯 (Jefferies) 提出了下一個問題。

So maybe, first, we'd heard about maybe pricing increases going into effect, let's call it, either towards the end of the year or earlier this year. I was just curious if there is a change in the timing of when you push through price increases for customers this year? And then I have a follow-up question as well.

因此，也許，首先，我們聽說價格上漲可能會在今年年底或今年稍早生效，我們可以這樣稱呼它。我只是好奇今年你們為顧客推動漲價的時間有沒有改變？然後我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. I'll take the first question. Yes. No change to the amount. I mean, I think your timing, it's not always the exact time every year, but it's in that range, typically towards the ended the fiscal year. Beginning in the next fiscal year is typically when we have our annual price increases. So really no change to the timing there.

是的。我來回答第一個問題。是的。金額沒有變化。我的意思是，我認為你的時間安排並不總是每年的確切時間，但在這個範圍內，通常是在財政年度結束時。從下一個財政年度開始，我們通常會進行年度價格上漲。所以確實沒有改變那裡的時間。

Okay. Great. And then I guess, just as you think about segmenting by customer size, I know what you just said about the average deal size, comparing it being smaller. But are you seeing any trends within if you stratified it by your smallest customers versus maybe slightly more like mid-market?

好的。偉大的。然後我想，就像您考慮按客戶規模進行細分一樣，我知道您剛才所說的平均交易規模，比較較小。但是，如果您按照最小的客戶與可能稍微更像中端市場的客戶進行分層，您是否看到了其中的任何趨勢？

And then same question between Management Solutions and PEO, if we're seeing anything that's different by the type of customer that you're seeing in terms of behavior or deal size or deal closing times.

然後，管理解決方案和 PEO 之間也有同樣的問題，我們是否發現客戶類型在行為、交易規模或交易結束時間上有任何不同。

No. So I don't really see much change overall. What I would say is, and part of this I'm reading what I hear others have said, that play in markets and when I look at our -- by deal size.

不，所以總體來說我並沒有看到太大的變化。我想說的是，我正在閱讀我聽到其他人所說的內容，其中一部分是市場的運作，以及當我按交易規模查看我們的交易規模時。

So we've got a mid-market team, we've got a PEO team. They're out in the market outside the base. And they're going after deals, and they're getting an average deal size. And we'll get a mix. We'll get this number of clients over 1,000 employees, as many 500 to 999. You get to drill, right? And on average, you just -- you get a mix, and that's the mix that kind of holds in the marketplace kind of historically.

所以我們有一個中端市場團隊，我們有一個 PEO 團隊。他們在基地外的市場。他們正在追求交易，並且他們正在獲得平均交易規模。我們會得到一個混合。我們將獲得超過 1,000 名員工的客戶，最多 500 到 999 名員工。你需要進行鑽探，對吧？平均而言，你會得到一個混合體，這就是歷史上市場上存在的混合體。

What I think you see when I look across it, and Bob can comment as well, is that on the larger side, the larger end, the enterprise end of that market, there was less of those deals that came in, in the PEO, came in, in the ASO and came in, in the traditional HCM. And we made up the volume in more slightly average size deals that we get. But then when you add that all together, because you have less boulders to the mix, you have a little less, either worksite employees or less checks than you planned on. Does that make sense?

我認為，當我瀏覽它時，你會看到，鮑勃也可以評論，在更大的方面，更大的一端，該市場的企業端，PEO 中的交易較少，進入ASO 並進入傳統的HCM。我們透過獲得的稍微平均規模的交易來彌補交易量。但是，當你把這些加在一起時，因為混合中的巨石減少了，所以你的工作量會比你計劃的少一點，要么是工地員工，要么是檢查少。那有意義嗎？

I'm going to break -- it does. I'm going to squeeze one more. And I know 2 are normally the limit. But just is there -- I know you're not guiding by segment for next year, but is there any reason, Bob, to assume that the trend line that you've guided for, for next quarter for Management Solutions ex ERTC and PEO, what's implied in the guide that, that wouldn't be the trend line heading into next year? I guess, is there anything that would materially get you off of those trend lines?

我要崩潰了——確實如此。我要再擠一張。我知道 2 通常是極限。但就是這樣——我知道你不會按明年的細分市場進行指導，但鮑勃，有什麼理由假設你指導的下季度管理解決方案（前 ERTC 和 PEO）的趨勢線是這樣的嗎？ ，指南中暗示，這不會是進入明年的趨勢線？我想，有什麼東西可以讓你實質地擺脫這些趨勢線嗎？

Yes. I mean, I wouldn't say significantly, Samad. I mean, I don't want to get into providing specifics on the 2 categories yet, as we're still going through our annual budget process.

是的。我的意思是，我不會說很重要，薩馬德。我的意思是，我還不想提供這兩個類別的具體細節，因為我們仍在進行年度預算流程。

But we certainly would expect the PEO and Insurance category growth next year to be similar to what we've seen this year. And Management Solutions is where the big headwind is with ERTC. But I would say similar trend lines to where we're exiting the year.

但我們當然預計明年 PEO 和保險類別的成長將與今年相似。管理解決方案是 ERTC 面臨的最大阻力。但我想說的是與我們今年退出時類似的趨勢線。

We have our next question from Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題是來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

This is Caroline. I am on for Jason. So in terms of capital deployment heading into 4Q and also 2025, can you give an update on the relative attractiveness of buybacks versus M&A? And then also, could you give an update on the general health of your M&A pipeline?

這是卡羅琳。我代表傑森。那麼，就進入第四季度和 2025 年的資本部署而言，您能否介紹一下回購與併購的相對吸引力的最新情況？另外，您能否介紹一下您的併購管道的整體健康狀況的最新情況？

Yes. Look, I would say that we continue to be open to acquisitions that meet the strategic objectives that we've laid out and that make financially sense. I would say that I feel like in several areas and industries that we have interest, that the multiples that I've seen are getting into line that are more reasonable and trying to be active.

是的。我想說的是，我們將繼續對符合我們所製定的策略目標且具有財務意義的收購持開放態度。我想說的是，我覺得在我們感興趣的幾個領域和行業，我所看到的倍數正在變得更加合理並試圖變得活躍。

And the key thing is just the timing of that, when is the right time of that. So we're certainly open for business, active engaging in both tuck-ins where we can add capability. We're doing a lot of things and looking at what we can do from an AI and digital HR perspective, constantly looking for adjacencies that are driving really the needs of our customers in terms of what they need to succeed and what we've talked about, the access to capital, being able to retain it and hire employees, and really getting access to affordable benefits that allow them to attract clients.

關鍵在於時機，什麼時候才是正確的時間。因此，我們當然對業務持開放態度，積極參與可以增加能力的兩項活動。我們正在做很多事情，並從人工智慧和數位人力資源的角度考慮我們可以做些什麼，不斷尋找能夠真正推動客戶成功所需的鄰接點以及我們所討論的內容關於，獲得資本，能夠保留資本和僱用員工，以及真正獲得負擔得起的福利，使他們能夠吸引客戶。

So all of those things are open. We've got an active engaged team that is talking to a lot of different prospects. But more to come. We certainly have the capital capability and the ability to do acquisitions, and we're prepared to pull the trigger if we can come across something that makes financial sense.

所以所有這些事情都是開放的。我們有一個積極參與的團隊，正在與許多不同的潛在客戶交談。但還會有更多。我們當然有資本能力和進行收購的能力，如果我們能找到具有財務意義的東西，我們就準備好扣動扳機。

And Caroline, I mean, the only thing I would add to that, just overall as it relates to capital allocation, really, no change in our approach there. We're going to continue to invest in the business. Dividends are -- we're going to continue to grow the dividend, and that will continue to be our primary use of cash.

卡羅琳，我的意思是，我唯一要補充的是，總的來說，因為它與資本配置有關，實際上，我們的方法並沒有改變。我們將繼續投資該業務。股息是——我們將繼續增加股息，這將繼續是我們現金的主要用途。

You mentioned share repurchases, really, no change in our philosophy there. We do that to offset dilution from executive comp. You saw recently, a month or so ago, we did do a new share reauthorization, so we can continue to do that. The old authorization had expired.

你提到了股票回購，實際上，我們的理念並沒有改變。我們這樣做是為了抵銷高階主管薪酬的稀釋。您最近看到，大約一個月前，我們確實進行了新的共享重新授權，因此我們可以繼續這樣做。舊授權已過期。

And then to John's point, we certainly are interested in M&A opportunistically, and we'll continue to use M&A to drive growth in the business. So our strategy and philosophy around capital allocation is very consistent with what you are all used to in the past.

然後約翰的觀點是，我們當然對機會主義的併購感興趣，我們將繼續利用併購來推動業務成長。所以我們對資本配置的策略和理念與你們過去所習慣的非常一致。

And we have our next question from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特（James Faucette）向我們提出了下一個問題。

I wanted to go back on just a quick couple macro points that you're making. If I rewind back in December, you talked a little bit about some concerns you had about potential for increases in out-of-business rates, et cetera. I'm just wondering, how that's evolved and what your current outlook is there? And it seems like you feel better about it, but I just want to make sure I'm interpreting your comments correctly.

我想簡單回顧一下您提出的幾個宏觀觀點。如果我回到 12 月，您談到了一些您對停業率可能增加等問題的擔憂。我只是想知道這是如何演變的以及您目前的看法是什麼？看起來你對此感覺好多了，但我只是想確保我正確地解釋了你的評論。

Yes. Jim, I would say that out-of-business rates are not out of the norm that you would expect given the accelerated new business starts that we saw 2 to 3 years ago. Small business starts are down a little bit from those peaks and highs, but still above pre-pandemic levels.

是的。吉姆，我想說的是，考慮到 2 到 3 年前我們看到的新業務加速啟動，停業率並沒有超出您的預期。小型企業開工率較高峰和高點略有下降，但仍高於疫情前的水平。

But again, it goes back to what I said before. We're not seeing signs of what would typically be seen in a recessionary period where there was accelerated out of businesses. Right now, what I would say out-of-business is elevated and particularly in the low end. But when you look at that in context of how many new businesses were started over the last 3 years, that's not atypical because within 2 years, 50% are gone. Within 5 years, 75% of them are gone.

但這又回到了我之前所說的。我們沒有看到經濟衰退時期企業加速倒閉的典型跡象。現在，我想說的是，停業的情況正在加劇，尤其是在低端市場。但如果你看看過去 3 年新開辦的新企業數量，你會發現這並不罕見，因為 2 年內，50% 的企業就消失了。 5年內，75%的人就消失了。

So that's -- it's not being driven by, what I would say, economic hardship or broad-based. Businesses that you would not expect to go out of business don't seem to be going out of business, if that makes sense.

所以，我想說，這不是由經濟困難或廣泛的因素所驅動的。如果這是有道理的話，那些你不認為會倒閉的企業似乎不會倒閉。

Yes, it does make sense. I appreciate that. And then you -- we've talked about kind of labor scarcity pretty consistently for the last few years. And I think your incremental comments in terms of the quality of labor and specifically employers being more discerning now is interesting.

是的，這確實有道理。我很感激。然後你——過去幾年我們一直在討論勞動力短缺。我認為您對勞動力品質的增量評論，特別是雇主現在變得更加挑剔，很有趣。

Any specific areas or whether it be industries or geographic regions that that's important, too? And I'm asking the question because I'm trying to think about what the path to resolution there is or if this is just something we're perpetually going to be grappling with.

有哪些特定領域也很重要，或是產業還是地理區域？我問這個問題是因為我試著思考解決問題的途徑是什麼，或者這只是我們永遠要努力解決的問題。

Well, look, what we keep trying to focus ourselves on is what more can we do to help our clients retain and attract quality employees. It's in their interest. It's certainly in our interest given the way we get paid.

好吧，你看，我們一直努力關注的是我們還能做些什麼來幫助我們的客戶留住和吸引優質員工。這符合他們的利益。考慮到我們獲得報酬的方式，這當然符合我們的利益。

I think, as you know, we launched 2 years ago the AI-based Retention Insights product that gives them insights to where they may have retention risk. We've got this -- the partnership with Indeed that's fully integrated, and we're actually elevating their job postings up in the listings for them as part of that partnership.

我認為，如您所知，我們在兩年前推出了基於人工智慧的保留洞察產品，讓他們深入了解可能存在保留風險的地方。我們已經與 Indeed 建立了完全整合的合作夥伴關係，作為該合作夥伴關係的一部分，我們實際上正在為他們在清單中提升他們的職位發布。

We're -- we just did the Visier product, which is on the way to being launched. We'll give them compensation information to be done. We're going to be doing some things in the next fiscal year around creating benefit bundles for our non-insurance HCM clients that allow their employees to feel like being part of that employee relationship, give them access to catastrophic care.

我們剛開發了 Visier 產品，即將推出。我們將向他們提供需要完成的補償資訊。我們將在下一財年做一些事情，圍繞著為我們的非保險 HCM 客戶創建福利包，讓他們的員工感覺自己是員工關係的一部分，讓他們獲得災難性護理。

We're trying to do a lot of things to solve this problem for our clients. And obviously, there's more we need to do because the simple fact is we have a generational change happening in the labor force. Participation rates remain below pre-pandemic levels, and it's going to be very difficult given the rate of retirements that we're seeing in Baby Boomers to really see that change. And what you see in the prime age workers were actually at record highs. The problem is there's not enough prime age people to fill all the opportunities.

我們正在嘗試做很多事情來為我們的客戶解決這個問題。顯然，我們需要做的還有更多，因為一個簡單的事實是我們的勞動力正在發生世代變化。參與率仍低於疫情前的水平，考慮到嬰兒潮世代的退休率，要真正看到這種變化將非常困難。你在黃金年齡工人中看到的情況實際上處於歷史新高。問題是沒有足夠的黃金年齡的人來填補所有的機會。

And then when you look at the productivity gap that you have generationally, and that's just in terms of experience. I don't want to disparage any generations in any way. But just the fact you're replacing someone with years of experience with someone that's newly experienced, I really think this is going to be an ongoing public policy issue that's going to have to be addressed. There's a lot of retraining with AI and digital jobs.

然後，當你觀察代間的生產力差距時，這只是在經驗方面。我不想以任何方式貶低任何一代。但事實上，你要用新經驗的人來取代有多年經驗的人，我真的認為這將是一個必須解決的持續的公共政策問題。有很多關於人工智慧和數位工作的再培訓。

I think more needs to be done. I mean, we got this -- we got the R&D tax credit thing sitting out there. Not to get on political bandwagon here, but we need to do more to allow businesses to invest in productivity and drive productivity enhancements, and that's not going to replace workers. That's going to enable them to get the work done with less workers that are going to exist in the marketplace.

我認為還需要做更多的事情。我的意思是，我們得到了這個——我們得到了研發稅收抵免的東西。不是為了追隨政治潮流，而是我們需要做更多的事情來允許企業投資生產力並推動生產力的提高，但這不會取代工人。這將使他們能夠用更少的市場工人來完成工作。

So I think this is a systemic problem. I think it's a great opportunity for us because it really goes to the products and services that we offer for a small and medium-sized business owner. So that's kind of my personal view on it, and it continues to show up in the data that we look at.

所以我認為這是一個系統性問題。我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的機會，因為它確實涉及我們為中小型企業主提供的產品和服務。這就是我個人的看法，它繼續出現在我們查看的數據中。

And we have our next question from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題是來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·阿薩爾（Ramsey El-Assal）。

How much did M&A contribute in the quarter? And if you could help us think through whether there's an inorganic contribution when it comes to your preliminary F '25 guidance, what that might be as well.

本季併購貢獻了多少？如果您能幫助我們思考一下，在您的 F '25 初步指導中是否存在無機貢獻，那也可能是什麼。

Yes. Ramsey, I mean, M&A, we didn't do any new M&A. The only M&A that we've done this year was the small Alterna acquisition that we did at the end of Q1. Obviously, it contributes something. It's a small number. It doesn't even round to 1%. So it's really not a big contributor at all.

是的。拉姆齊，我的意思是，併購，我們沒有進行任何新的併購。我們今年完成的唯一併購是我們在第一季末進行的小型 Alterna 收購。顯然，它做出了一些貢獻。這是一個很小的數字。它甚至沒有四捨五入到 1%。所以它根本不是一個大貢獻者。

In the guide, we typically don't -- although we're always active in looking for opportunities, we're not going to put anything into a forecast until a deal is closed. So that does not assume any -- the preliminary guide does not assume any level of M&A next year.

在指南中，我們通常不會這樣做——儘管我們總是積極尋找機會，但在交易完成之前我們不會將任何內容放入預測中。因此，這並沒有做出任何假設——初步指南沒有假設明年會有任何水平的併購。

Got it, got it. One quick follow-up for me. SECURE Act 2.0, what are you seeing there? Does that have the potential to emerge as kind of a tailwind that might help offset some of the ERTC headwind? Or is it too early to tell? Maybe give us an update on what you're seeing on SECURE Act 2.0.

明白了，明白了。我的一個快速跟進。 SECURE Act 2.0，您看到了什麼？這是否有可能成為一種順風，有助於抵消 ERTC 的一些逆風？還是現在說還太早？也許可以向我們介紹一下您在《安全法案 2.0》中看到的最新情況。

Yes. I think, Ramsey, replacing ERTC is a very difficult thing to do, both in terms of the revenue nature of it and the profitability of it. And I would say that helping -- and basically, we're doing filing, as you know. We were doing tax filings, which is something that's core to our business. And there was a lot of hype around ERTC. So there was a lot of education going on by others that was helping that.

是的。 Ramsey，我認為取代 ERTC 是一件非常困難的事情，無論是從其收入性質還是從其盈利能力來看。我想說，這很有幫助——基本上，我們正​​在做歸檔，正如你所知。我們正在做稅務申報，這是我們業務的核心。圍繞 ERTC 進行了很多炒作。因此，其他人正在進行的大量教育對此有所幫助。

What I see in secured -- the SECURE Act is I think it's a great thing. I mean, our retirement business had a solid quarter and it's had solid year-to-date. And that continues to be a strong growth driver.

我認為《安全法案》是一件很棒的事。我的意思是，我們的退休業務有一個穩定的季度，而且今年迄今為止也有穩定的表現。這仍然是強勁的成長動力。

I think you've still got to talk to business owners and educate them on it. It's still a sales process. We've had states that have made it mandatory. Those kind of come and go in the area.

我認為你仍然需要與企業主交談並對他們進行教育。這仍然是一個銷售過程。我們已經有一些州將其強制執行。這些人在該地區來來去去。

The other thing on the SECURE Act 2.0, which we've been pushing on, is there is a little bit of a loophole that kind of disadvantages businesses with under 10 employees. I won't get into the nuances of it. And there's pretty bipartisan support in both the House and Senate to try to close that loophole, and we keep pushing for that because I do think that would particularly help in our micro segment, really accelerate some adoption there. But right now, that will pull us. It's still there.

我們一直在推動的 SECURE Act 2.0 的另一件事是，存在一點漏洞，這對員工人數在 10 人以下的企業不利。我不會深入探討其中的細微差別。眾議院和參議院都得到了相當多的兩黨支持，試圖堵住這個漏洞，我們一直在推動這一點，因為我確實認為這對我們的微型細分市場特別有幫助，確實加速了那裡的一些採用。但現在，這會吸引我們。它還在那裡。

And we have our next question from Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.

我們有來自 RBC 資本市場的 Ashish Sabadra 的下一個問題。

This is David Paige on for Ashish. I just had a question on your AI initiatives. Maybe can you provide some of the customer feedback, what -- I guess, what parts of your tools or your AI models that they're liking and maybe some of the benefits you're seeing internally in terms of greater sales teams, productivity, et cetera?

我是阿什什的大衛·佩奇。我剛剛對你們的人工智慧計畫有一個疑問。也許你可以提供一些客戶回饋，我猜，他們喜歡你的工具或人工智慧模型的哪些部分，也許你在內部看到的一些好處，包括更強大的銷售團隊、生產力、等等？

Yes. So David, what I would tell you at this point in time, a lot of our AI initiatives and investments have really been focused internally, both in terms of how we drive efficiency, how we drive better sales productivity, how we do better marketing and targeting, how we do better customer service and identify clients that are at risk, how we do better pricing and discounting, so that we're not getting too much away, but we're giving enough to get the right type of lifetime value that we want.

是的。所以大衛，我現在要告訴你的是，我們的許多人工智慧計畫和投資實際上都集中在內部，無論是在我們如何提高效率、如何提高銷售生產力、如何更好地行銷和定位，我們如何提供更好的客戶服務並識別面臨風險的客戶，我們如何更好地定價和折扣，這樣我們就不會偏離太多，但我們付出了足夠的努力以獲得正確類型的終身價值，我們想要。

Really, on the client side, the Retention Insights has been a very popular product with our larger customers in terms of getting insights to what they're doing. And we're just in the stages of really rolling out our Visier product, which will give them basically 750 million data -- compensation data points that will allow our customers in real time to understand how competitive they are, if they're making a job offer what they could potentially do. And that's just in the early stages.

實際上，在客戶端方面，Retention Insights 一直是我們大客戶中非常受歡迎的產品，可以深入了解他們正在做的事情。我們正處於真正推出 Visier 產品的階段，該產品將為他們提供基本上 7.5 億個數據——補償數據點，這些數據點將使我們的客戶能夠實時了解他們的競爭力，如果他們正在做一個提供他們可能做的工作。這還只是處於早期階段。

What I believe is because of our vast data set, we're going to be able to provide a degree of insights and information when coupled with our HR advisers that I truly think is going to set us apart from any of the smaller regional players or a local CPA because we're just going to be able to give them the vast data set insights that we have.

我相信，由於我們擁有龐大的數據集，與我們的人力資源顧問合作，我們將能夠提供一定程度的見解和信息，我真的認為這將使我們與任何較小的區域參與者或其他公司區分開來。當地註冊會計師，因為我們能夠為他們提供我們擁有的大量數據集見解。

And so as I've mentioned, we just hired a new SVP whose full-time job is to do nothing, but pull all of the capabilities we have across the company and develop a robust strategy of how we can drive the most out of AI to drive more value for our customers and drive more operational efficiency into the company.

正如我所提到的，我們剛剛聘請了一位新的高級副總裁，他的全職工作就是什麼都不做，而是利用我們在整個公司擁有的所有能力，制定一項強有力的戰略，以充分利用人工智慧為客戶創造更多價值並提高公司營運效率。

And we have our next question from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的布萊恩·基恩 (Bryan Keane) 提出了下一個問題。

I just had a couple of clarifications. The miss on revenue in third quarter versus your guided expectations, it sounded like 1/3 of that was the ERTC decision to stop recognizing the revenues. Then I'm just trying to fill in the gap, and the other 2/3 of kind of versus your expectations on the miss, if I heard that correctly.

我只是做了一些澄清。第三季的收入未達到您的指導預期，聽起來其中 1/3 是 ERTC 決定停止確認收入。然後我只是想填補這個空白，如果我沒聽錯的話，另外 2/3 的內容與你的期望相差甚遠。

Yes, that's right. Bryan, so it's roughly -- there's 3 big drivers -- there are 3 drivers that we've talked about. They're all small, but there's 3 drivers that we've talked about. Certainly, the continued moderation of employment. We definitely saw lower checks per client, lower change in base relative to what our assumptions were. That started in Q2. We updated our forecast in Q2 for some of the trends that we are seeing. But I would say employment came in a little bit softer than even our revised assumptions in the forecast.

恩，那就對了。布萊恩，所以大致來說——有 3 個重要的驅動因素——我們已經討論過 3 個驅動因素。它們都很小，但我們已經討論過 3 個驅動程式。當然，就業持續放緩。與我們的假設相比，我們確實看到每位客戶的支票減少了，基數變化也減少了。那是從第二季開始的。我們更新了第二季度對我們所看到的一些趨勢的預測。但我想說，就業數據甚至比我們在預測中修正的假設還要疲軟。

And then John mentioned a little bit on the rate. We saw smaller client sizes maybe a little bit higher discounting than what we assumed. I mean, we're still getting really good price realization overall and strong growth in revenue per client. But I would say it was a little bit softer relative to what our forecast assumptions were.

然後約翰提到了一些關於費率的問題。我們看到較小的客戶規模可能比我們假設的折扣要高一些。我的意思是，我們總體上仍然獲得了非常好的價格實現，並且每個客戶的收入強勁增長。但我想說，相對於我們的預測假設，它有點軟。

And then the bigger piece there was the ERTC that I mentioned. So when you look at those 3 things, they're roughly 1/3 a piece is how I would characterize it.

然後更大的部分是我提到的 ERTC。所以當你看這 3 件事時，我會這樣描述它們，它們大約是 1/3。

No. That's helpful. And then when I jump from the third quarter revenue growth of 4% to the guided 5%, what accounts for the extra -- the strength of 100 basis points when I go into the fourth quarter?

不，這很有幫助。然後，當我從第三季 4% 的營收成長躍升至指引值 5% 時，是什麼導致了額外的成長——進入第四季時 100 個基點的強勁成長？

Yes. So I'd say there's a few things to call out there, Bryan. One, the -- I mentioned the ERTC headwind being similar to Q3. It's a little bit less than it was in Q3, so that has a little bit of an impact. You have less of a headwind from ERTC in Q4. We're still getting strong client base, price realization, product penetration that carries into Q4.

是的。所以我想說，布萊恩，有一些事情需要注意。一，我提到 ERTC 的逆風與第三季相似。比第三季少一些，所以會產生一些影響。第四季度，來自 ERTC 的阻力較小。我們仍然擁有強大的客戶群、價格實現和產品滲透率，這些都延續到了第四季。

And then I would say on the PEO side, we came out of selling season in a stronger position from a worksite employee standpoint in medical enrollment. And so we're going to get the full quarter benefit of that in Q4 relative to where we were in Q3.

然後我想說，在 PEO 方面，從工作現場員工的角度來看，我們在醫療登記方面處於更有利的地位。因此，相對於第三季度，我們將在第四季度獲得全部季度收益。

So we got positive momentum, I would say, heading into Q4 in both businesses. And then we are getting a little bit of a lift in interest on funds in Q4. You've seen a little bit stronger growth there versus Q3. Some of that is the compare we did some repositioning of the portfolio. I think we had some realized losses that we took in Q4 to better position the portfolio going forward. And so you get a little bit of a tailwind in growth from that as well.

因此，我想說，進入第四季度，這兩項業務都取得了積極的勢頭。然後，我們對第四季度基金的興趣略有上升。與第三季相比，您看到那裡的成長稍微強勁一些。其中一些是我們對投資組合進行了一些重新定位的比較。我認為我們在第四季度承受了一些已實現的損失，以便更好地定位未來的投資組合。因此，你也能從中獲得一些成長的順風車。

And I'd say when you put those together, that's what accounts for a little bit stronger growth in Q4 relative to Q3.

我想說，當你把這些放在一起時，這就是第四季相對於第三季成長稍強的原因。

And we have our last question from Scott Wurtzel with Wolfe Research.

最後一個問題是沃爾夫研究公司的史考特·沃澤爾提出的。

Just one for me. Wanted to go back to the expense and margin side. I mean, the outperformance, I think, was notable despite the ERTC revenue going away.

只給我一個。想回到費用和利潤方面。我的意思是，我認為，儘管 ERTC 收入消失，但其優異的表現還是值得注意的。

And I just wanted to clarify. And I know you talked about some of the efficiencies off of the investments over the last few years. But were there any specific actions on the expense side that you took during the quarter as the ERTC revenue sort of wound down?

我只是想澄清一下。我知道您談到了過去幾年投資的一些效率。但是，隨著 ERTC 收入的減少，您在本季度的費用方面是否採取了任何具體行動？

Yes. I wouldn't say anything specific to call out, Scott. I mean, obviously, we're always trying to look at expenses and making sure that we're not letting new costs into the business and really focusing. We saw the headwind come in, so I wouldn't say there's anything specific to call out other than good expense management.

是的。我不會說任何具體的事情來呼籲，斯科特。我的意思是，顯然，我們一直在努力考慮費用，並確保我們不會讓新的成本進入業務並真正集中精力。我們看到了逆風的到來，所以我不會說除了良好的費用管理之外還有什麼特別值得呼籲的。

And there -- some of that margin expansion that you saw in the quarter is being driven by interest rates. But even when you exclude that, we saw good margin expansion during the quarter.

您在本季看到的利潤率擴張部分是由利率推動的。但即使排除這一點，我們在本季也看到了良好的利潤成長。

Yes. I don't want to shortchange the tremendous job that each and every employee does in the company in terms of managing expenses. And we have it built into our DNA when we say, "Hey, we're seeing signs. It's time to go."

是的。我不想低估公司每位員工在管理費用方面所做的艱鉅工作。當我們說：“嘿，我們看到跡象了。是時候離開了。”

People know what to do, and they do it. Because, again, as Bob pointed out, some of that PEO and Insurance revenue is direct revenue pass-through. So when you look at our margins, you think some of that revenue, and you'll lose in the ERTC, I just want to commend how good a job we've done and, I think, have done historically as part of our just DNA as being the best operators.

人們知道該做什麼，也這麼做了。因為，正如鮑伯所指出的，PEO 和保險收入的一部分是直接收入轉嫁。因此，當您查看我們的利潤率時，您會想到其中的一些收入，並且您會在ERTC 中損失，我只是想讚揚我們所做的工作有多好，而且我認為，作為我們正義的一部分，我們在歷史上所做的工作是多麼出色。 DNA是最好的操作員。

And so it's every little bit, every little thing matters. And so there's no one big thing. I would say that the insights that we're gaining and the opportunity for digitalization, the investment we've made in enabling our clients and their employees to engage our systems and the rate in which they're adopting that opportunity is tremendous.

因此，每一件小事都很重要。所以沒有一件大事。我想說的是，我們獲得的見解和數位化的機會，我們為幫助客戶及其員工參與我們的系統而進行的投資以及他們利用這一機會的速度是巨大的。

And we've invested over the last several years into building out both our AI robotics capabilities and our global footprint. And I think all of those investments we've made over the last 3 years during the pandemic era when we had ERTC are going to serve us well as we move forward.

在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在投資建立我們的人工智慧機器人能力和全球足跡。我認為，在過去 3 年的大流行時期，我們在 ERTC 期間進行的所有投資都將為我們的前進提供良好的服務。

So I just look at it and say, as we exit this era of the pandemic from a Paychex perspective, I think we're entering the new era of just fundamentally a better positioned company. I think we're a more positioned, trusted adviser to small businesses. We're delivering more value to our customers. They're rewarding that with retention and with better pricing in a market where there's a lot of cheaper alternatives out there. We're more digitally enabled in all aspects of our business than we've ever been. And I think we're more agile and focused and also more profitable, quite honestly.

所以我只是看著它並說，當我​​們從 Paychex 的角度退出這個大流行時代時，我認為我們正在進入一個從根本上定位更好的公司的新時代。我認為我們是小型企業更有地位、更值得信賴的顧問。我們正在為客戶提供更多價值。他們透過留存和在市場上提供更好的定價來獎勵這一點，因為市場上有很多更便宜的替代品。我們業務的各個方面都比以往任何時候都更加數位化。老實說，我認為我們更敏捷、更專注，而且利潤也更高。

So hats off to the team for all the things we've done to get ourselves in this position that when the tide turned, we had leverage we could pull to make sure that we're delivering for our shareholders.

因此，向我們的團隊致敬，我們為讓自己處於這樣的位置所做的一切，當潮流轉變時，我們可以利用槓桿來確保我們為股東提供服務。

Is that it, Mike?

是這樣嗎，麥克？

And that does conclude our Q&A session for today.

我們今天的問答環節到此結束。

Okay. Well, listen, everyone, at this point, we'll close the call. If you're interested in a replay of the webcast of the conference call, it will be archived for approximately 90 days.

好的。好吧，聽著，大家，此時，我們將結束通話。如果您有興趣重播電話會議的網路廣播，該影片將存檔約 90 天。

And I want to thank you for your interest in Paychex, and hope all of you have a great day. Thank you.

我要感謝您對 Paychex 的興趣，並希望大家度過愉快的一天。謝謝。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。