沛齊 (PAYX) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Paychex First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call is being recorded, and I will be standing by if you should need any assistance.

大家好，歡迎參加今天的 Paychex 第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話正在錄音，如果您需要任何協助，我將隨時待命。

It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to John Gibson.

現在我很高興將會議交給約翰·吉布森。

Thank you, Shelby. Thank you, everyone, for joining us for our discussion of the Paychex First Quarter Fiscal Year '24 Earnings Release. Joining me today is Efrain Rivera, our Chief Financial Officer, and Bob Schrader, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations.

謝謝你，謝爾比。感謝大家加入我們對 Paychex '24 財年第一季財報發布的討論。今天加入我的是我們的財務長 Efrain Rivera 以及財務與投資者關係副總裁 Bob Schrader。

This morning, before the market opened, we released our financial results for the first quarter. You can access our earnings release on our Investor Relations website. Our Form 10-Q will be filed with the SEC within the next day.

今天早上，在開盤前，我們發布了第一季的財務表現。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上造訪我們的收益發布。我們的 10-Q 表格將在第二天提交給 SEC。

The teleconference is being broadcast online and will be archived and available on our website for approximately 90 days.

電話會議正在線上直播，並將在我們的網站上存檔並提供大約 90 天的時間。

I will start the call with an update on the business highlights for the first quarter. I'll then turn it over to Efrain and Bob for a financial update, and then we'll open up for your questions. But before getting into the discussion of our earnings results, I want to take a brief moment here to make a few brief comments to acknowledge Efrain Rivera, who announced his intention to retire as CFO effective October 12, 2023, though he will remain as a senior adviser at least through the end of the calendar year.

我將首先介紹第一季業務亮點的最新情況。然後我會將其轉交給 Efrain 和 Bob 以獲取最新財務信息，然後我們將開放回答您的問題。但在討論我們的獲利結果之前，我想花一點時間向 Efrain Rivera 致謝，他宣布打算從 2023 年 10 月 12 日起退休，擔任首席財務官，但他仍將繼續擔任財務長。高級顧問至少到日曆年年底。

Efrain has been a valued member of this senior leadership team at Paychex for the past 12 years. He has provided strong financial stewardship, but more importantly, great strategic leadership as well. During his time with Paychex, the company has transformed into a technology-enabled services company, and we significantly expanded our HR solutions and capabilities. Efrain has been a key strategic adviser and a catalyst for this transformation.

過去 12 年來，Efrain 一直是 Paychex 高階領導團隊的重要成員。他提供了強有力的財務管理，但更重要的是，他也提供了出色的策略領導力。在他在 Paychex 任職期間，該公司已轉型為技術支援的服務公司，我們顯著擴展了我們的人力資源解決方案和能力。埃弗萊恩一直是這項轉型的重要策略顧問和催化劑。

Efrain, I think you know how truly I appreciate your intellect, your wisdom, your integrity, the guidance you've given me personally over my decade here and to the company. And we're all in great gratitude for what you've done for each one of us personally and for the company. Our customers, our employees, and our shareholders are better off because you were here. So thank you.

Efrain，我想你知道我是多麼欣賞你的智慧、你的智慧、你的正直，以及你在我在這裡和公司的十年裡給予我個人的指導。我們非常感謝您為我們每個人和公司所做的一切。我們的客戶、我們的員工和我們的股東都因為你們的存在而變得更好。所以謝謝。

Joining us today is Bob Schrader, who will succeed Efrain as CFO. Bob joined Paychex back in 2014 and is taking on progressive leadership roles over the past 9 years, including over the last 1.5 years since I was named President and subsequent CEO of being co-lead of many of our strategic review efforts and strategic initiatives.

今天加入我們的是 Bob Schrader，他將接替 Efrain 擔任財務長。 Bob 於 2014 年加入 Paychex，並在過去 9 年中逐漸擔任領導職務，包括自我被任命為總裁和隨後的執行長以來的過去 1.5 年，共同領導我們的許多策略審查工作和策略舉措。

Bob's promotion is a part of a strategic succession plan to bring in an innovative leader who will continue to guide the company going forward. I want to congratulate Bob, and Bob, I look forward to continuing to work with you as I have in the last 10 years as we continue our track record of delivering strong financial results, and continuing to position Paychex as a leader, an innovator and a company that you can count on for predictable and sustainable results.

鮑伯的晉升是策略繼任計畫的一部分，旨在引進一位創新領導者，繼續指導公司前進。我要祝賀鮑勃，鮑勃，我期待著像過去 10 年一樣繼續與您合作，我們將繼續保持交付強勁財務業績的記錄，並繼續將 Paychex 定位為領導者、創新者和一家值得您信賴的公司，能夠提供可預測且可持續的成果。

Now moving on to the first quarter results, speaking of predictability and sustainability. We have begun the fiscal year '24 with solid growth of 7% in total revenue and 11% in adjusted diluted earnings per share. We've seen operating margin expansion of approximately 60 basis points year-over-year while still investing in our business to drive future growth. Our first quarter reflected solid execution by our sales, service and all of our teams across Paychex.

現在轉向第一季的業績，談論可預測性和可持續性。我們在 24 財年伊始，總營收穩定成長 7%，調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長 11%。我們的營業利潤率年增約 60 個基點，同時仍在投資我們的業務以推動未來成長。我們的第一季反映了我們的銷售、服務和 Paychex 所有團隊的紮實執行。

The demand for our HR technology and advisory solutions continued, resulting in strong quarter new sales revenue growth. We saw positive trends in client revenue and HR outsourcing worksite employee retention during the quarter, and we continue to focus our resources on acquiring and retaining high-value clients.

對我們的人力資源技術和諮詢解決方案的需求持續存在，導致季度新銷售收入強勁成長。本季我們看到了客戶收入和人力資源外包工作場所員工留任率的正面趨勢，我們繼續將資源集中在獲取和留住高價值客戶上。

We are starting to see improvements in some of our KPO and insurance metrics during the quarter, with good results across sales activity, insurance attachment and retention. We will know more after our open enrollment season is completed, which primarily runs from October through January, but at this time, we believe that the actions we have taken in response to headwinds we faced in 2023 and are beginning to gain traction.

本季我們開始看到一些 KPO 和保險指標有所改善，在銷售活動、保險附加和保留方面取得了良好的結果。開放招生季（主要從 10 月到 1 月）結束後，我們會了解更多信息，但此時，我們相信，我們為應對 2023 年面臨的不利因素而採取的行動正在開始發揮作用。

Employment levels within our client base have remained stable. Small businesses, which are central to the U.S. economy continues to show their resiliency. Our small business employment watch has shown that small businesses continue to add workers at sustained but modest rates. Also the trend in wages has shown some cooling and wage growth consistent with overall inflation. Our data indicates a continued stable macro environment for small and midsized businesses. We continue to monitor our leading indicators and are prepared to take appropriate actions to navigate any changes. But again, at this time, we don't see any material change to the macro environment.

我們客戶群的就業水準保持穩定。作為美國經濟核心的小型企業繼續表現出韌性。我們的小型企業就業觀察顯示，小型企業繼續以持續但適度的速度增加工人。此外，薪資趨勢也顯示出一定程度的降溫，薪資成長與整體通膨一致。我們的數據顯示中小企業的宏觀環境持續穩定。我們將繼續監控我們的領先指標，並準備採取適當的行動來應對任何變化。但同樣，目前我們沒有看到宏觀環境有任何重大變化。

Small businesses have faced challenges getting access to capital and managing cash flows in this environment. This has continued to drive demand for our full-service employee retention tax credit service. I know there's been some recent news of the IRS pause in ERTC processing in order for them to perform increased audits. This is not expected to have an impact on our ability to provide this service, though it may take longer for our clients to receive their funds.

在這種環境下，小型企業在獲得資本和管理現金流方面面臨挑戰。這繼續推動了對我們全方位服務的員工保留稅收抵免服務的需求。我知道最近有一些消息稱 IRS 暫停了 ERTC 處理，以便他們進行更多的審計。儘管我們的客戶可能需要更長的時間才能收到資金，但預計這不會影響我們提供此服務的能力。

We continue to communicate this opportunity to existing clients and prospects and we continue to file amended returns with the IRS on their behalf. We anticipate that ERTC revenue will be a slight tailwind for the first half of the fiscal year and then turn to a headwind in the back half as the program ends.

我們將繼續向現有客戶和潛在客戶傳達此機會，並繼續代表他們向美國國稅局提交修改後的申報表。我們預計 ERTC 的營收將在本財年上半年略有成長，但隨著計畫結束，下半年將轉為逆風。

We are seeing greater adoption of HR software as businesses look to digitize their HR efforts to support the complexities of managing today's workforce in a more efficient manner. We also continue to see strong demand for our HR advisory solutions as businesses deal with the continued challenges of being an employer in today's challenging employment world.

隨著企業希望將其人力資源工作數位化，以更有效地管理當今勞動力的複雜性，我們看到人力資源軟體的採用越來越多。隨著企業在當今充滿挑戰的就業世界中應對作為雇主的持續挑戰，我們也繼續看到對我們的人力資源諮詢解決方案的強勁需求。

Paychex is uniquely positioned to offer a continuum of HR products, technology and services from do-it-yourself payroll all the way to full service POHR outsourcing. All of these products deliver a strong return on investment for our clients.

Paychex 具有獨特的優勢，可提供從自助薪資一直到全方位 POHR 外包服務的一系列人力資源產品、技術和服務。所有這些產品都為我們的客戶帶來了豐厚的投資回報。

For the 13th year in a row, we were named the leading retirement record keeper by a number of plans by PLANSPONSOR magazine. Our leadership position in retirement makes us an excellent resource for small businesses, and we continue to educate and execute on this opportunity. There has certainly been a lot of excitement about AI and related technology advancement around the monetization of large data sets.

我們連續 13 年被《PLANSPONSOR》雜誌評為多項計畫中領先的退休記錄保持者。我們在退休方面的領導地位使我們成為小型企業的絕佳資源，我們將繼續利用這一機會進行教育和執行。圍繞大數據集貨幣化的人工智慧和相關技術進步無疑令人興奮不已。

At Paychex, as we've talked on prior calls, this isn't anything new or it's not a fact. We have been using artificial intelligence to transform our business for over a decade. We have over 200 AI models that are actively working in our business today designed to provide valuable insights fueled by our vast data assets. Our award-winning retention insight tool uses AI-based predictive analytics to provide HR leaders with early insights into potential employee retention issues.

在 Paychex，正如我們在之前的電話中談到的那樣，這不是什麼新鮮事，也不是事實。十多年來，我們一直在利用人工智慧來改變我們的業務。目前，我們有 200 多個人工智慧模型在我們的業務中積極發揮作用，旨在透過我們龐大的數據資產提供有價值的見解。我們屢獲殊榮的保留洞察工具使用基於人工智慧的預測分析，為人力資源領導者提供有關潛在員工保留問題的早期見解。

Our Flex intelligence engine is an embedded AI chat capability within our Flex platform that allows the customer to get quick answers to over 900 of the most common questions and access over 1,200 instructional resources. Companies like paycheck with large amounts of data will clearly be the winner with AI. And we will continue to harness the power of AI and leverage our extensive data to drive internal efficiencies and provide actionable insights and solutions to our clients.

我們的 Flex 智慧引擎是 Flex 平台中的嵌入式 AI 聊天功能，可讓客戶快速獲得 900 多個最常見問題的答案，並存取 1,200 多個教學資源。像 Paycheck 這樣擁有大量數據的公司顯然將成為人工智慧的贏家。我們將繼續利用人工智慧的力量，利用我們廣泛的數據來提高內部效率，並為我們的客戶提供可行的見解和解決方案。

This quarter, we continue to be recognized for our innovation, service and the positive impact we are having on our customers, our industry and the world. For the third time, Paychex has been recognized by TrustRadius with a 2023 Tech Cares award for the company's corporate social responsibility programs and our community impact. We also received an award from Selling Power for our commitment to fostering a diverse and inclusive workforce and from Forbes as one of the best employers for women in 2023.

本季度，我們繼續因其創新、服務以及對客戶、行業和世界的積極影響而受到認可。 Paychex 第三次被 TrustRadius 授予 2023 年技術關懷獎，以表彰該公司的企業社會責任計劃和我們的社區影響。我們也因致力於培養多元化和包容性的勞動力而獲得《Selling Power》獎項，並被《富比士》評為 2023 年女性最佳雇主之一。

On the product and service side, NelsonHall once again identified Paychex as a leader in its 2023 next-generation HCM technology market report. We also learned a silver Brandon Hall Group 2023 HR Excellence Award for breadth and depth of training that we provide our HR advisers to keep them up to speed on the ever-changing complexities of the employer-employee relationship. Paychex was also named the 2023 Constellation Research on the short list for best payroll for North American small and midsized businesses.

在產品和服務方面，NelsonHall 在 2023 年下一代 HCM 技術市場報告中再次將 Paychex 評為領導者。我們也獲得了 Brandon Hall Group 2023 年人力資源卓越銀獎，以表彰我們為人力資源顧問提供的培訓的廣度和深度，幫助他們及時了解雇主與僱員關係不斷變化的複雜性。 Paychex 也被 Constellation Research 評為 2023 年北美中小企業最佳薪資候選名單。

The depth and breadth of our product suite provides American businesses the freedom to succeed with the technology and advice that they desperately need to remain competitive in a very complicated world. I want to thank our over 16,000 global employees who consistently deliver for our clients and our shareholders. It's because of them that we're off to such a good start this fiscal year.

我們產品套件的深度和廣度為美國企業提供了成功的自由，他們迫切需要在一個非常複雜的世界中保持競爭力的技術和建議。我要感謝我們 16,000 多名全球員工，他們始終如一地為我們的客戶和股東提供服務。正是因為他們，我們本財年才有了良好的開端。

I'll now turn it over to Bob Schrader to give you a brief update on our financial results for the first quarter. Bob?

現在我將把它交給鮑勃·施拉德 (Bob Schrader)，向您簡要介紹我們第一季的財務業績。鮑伯？

Yes. Thanks, John, and good morning. It's good to be here with you this morning, and I certainly look forward to working with each of you as we move forward. I'd like to remind everyone that today's commentary will contain forward-looking statements. Obviously, those involve risks, and we will refer to some non-GAAP measures. I'll refer you to our customary disclosures in our press release and our investor presentation that will be posted later today.

是的。謝謝，約翰，早安。很高興今天早上能和你們在一起，我當然期待著與你們每一個人一起前進。我想提醒大家，今天的評論將包含前瞻性陳述。顯然，這些都涉及風險，我們將參考一些非公認會計準則措施。我將向您推薦我們在今天稍後發布的新聞稿和投資者簡報中的慣例披露。

I'll start providing a summary of our first quarter results, and then I'm going to turn it over to Efrain, and he'll give an update on our financial position and updated guidance for the year. Total revenue for the quarter increased 7% to $1.3 billion. Management Solutions revenue increased 6% to $956 million, primarily driven by higher clients and client employees, product penetration, price realization in HR ancillary services, we continue to see increased attachment and demand for our HR solutions retirement and time and attendance solutions. PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue increased 5% to $298 million, driven primarily by higher revenue per client and higher average worksite employees.

我將開始提供我們第一季業績的摘要，然後我將把它交給 Efrain，他將提供我們財務狀況的最新資訊和今年的最新指導。該季度總營收成長 7%，達到 13 億美元。管理解PEO 和保險解決方案收入成長了 5%，達到 2.98 億美元，這主要是由於每個客戶收入的增加和平均工作場所員工人數的增加。

As John mentioned, we definitely saw some positive momentum in the PEO in the first quarter as it relates to both sales activity and medical plan participation and attachment. Those were obviously headwinds last year, and we're definitely seeing some positive signs as we moved through the first quarter here.

正如約翰所提到的，我們確實在第一季看到了 PEO 的一些積極勢頭，因為它與銷售活動以及醫療計劃的參與和附加有關。這些顯然是去年的逆風，當我們進入第一季時，我們肯定看到了一些積極的跡象。

Interest on funds held for clients increased 83% to $33 million, primarily due to higher average interest rates. Total expenses increased 5% to $750 million. Expense growth was largely attributable to higher compensation costs, PEO direct insurance costs and investments that we've made into the business. Operating income increased 8% to $536 million with an operating margin of 41.7%. That's a 60 basis point improvement versus the prior year period and diluted earnings per share increased 10% to $1.16 per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 11% for the quarter to $1.14 per share.

為客戶持有的資金利息增加了 83%，達到 3,300 萬美元，主要是由於平均利率上升。總支出增加 5%，達 7.5 億美元。費用成長主要歸因於更高的薪酬成本、PEO 直接保險成本以及我們對業務的投資。營業收入成長 8%，達到 5.36 億美元，營業利益率為 41.7%。與去年同期相比，這一數字提高了 60 個基點，稀釋後每股收益增長了 10%，達到每股 1.16 美元，本季調整後稀釋每股收益增長了 11%，達到每股 1.14 美元。

I'll now turn it over to Efrain to take you through our financial position and our updated guidance for the year.

現在我將把它交給 Efrain，讓您了解我們的財務狀況和今年的最新指導。

Thanks, Bob, and good morning to everyone on the call. Before I start, just wanted to say thank you, John, for the generous words. It's been an absolute professional privilege and honor to have been with Paychex during all this time.

謝謝鮑勃，祝所有參加電話會議的人早安。在開始之前，我只想對約翰的慷慨之言表示感謝。能夠在 Paychex 工作這段時間是絕對的職業榮幸。

As you all know, we maintain a strong financial position with high-quality cash and earnings. Our balanced for cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments was more than $1.7 billion. Total borrowings were approximately $812 million as of August 21, 2023. Cash flows from operations were $656 million for the first quarter was driven by net income and changes in working capital. There was some influence of timing there. It wasn't quite as strong as a percentage would indicate, but nonetheless, it was a very solid quarter. As you know, our earnings quality, which some of you have pointed out is among the best candidly in the entirety of the S&P 500.

眾所周知，我們保持著強勁的財務狀況，擁有優質的現金和收益。我們的現金、限制性現金和企業投資總額餘額超過 17 億美元。截至 2023 年 8 月 21 日，借款總額約為 8.12 億美元。第一季的營運現金流為 6.56 億美元，主要受到淨利和營運資本變動的推動。那裡有一些時間的影響。它並不像百分比所顯示的那麼強勁，但儘管如此，這是一個非常穩定的季度。如你所知，你們中的一些人坦率地指出，我們的獲利品質是整個標準普爾 500 指數中最好的。

In the first quarter, we acquired a small company that purchases outstanding accounts receivable of their customers under nonrecourse arrangements. This acquisition is a good strategic fit with another business that we have called Paychex Advance, and that business purchases accounts receivable for temporary staffing clients.

第一季度，我們收購了一家小公司，該公司根據無追索權安排購買其客戶的未償應收帳款。此次收購與我們稱為 Paychex Advance 的另一家業務非常契合，該業務為臨時人員客戶購買應收帳款。

This acquisition will provide an opportunity for our small business clients to manage working capital challenges, as John alluded to earlier, we've seen over the last several years that access to financing is very important for small and medium-sized businesses, and we think this plays well into our -- in our portfolio of businesses that we have. We're very excited to have it. The acquisition at this stage is not anticipated to have a material impact on our financial results this year.

此次收購將為我們的小型企業客戶提供一個應對營運資金挑戰的機會，正如約翰之前提到的，我們在過去幾年中看到，獲得融資對於中小型企業來說非常重要，我們認為這對我們的業務組合發揮了很好的作用。我們很高興擁有它。現階段的收購預計不會對我們今年的財務表現產生重大影響。

We paid a total of $322 million in dividends during the first quarter. Our 12-month rolling return on equity was a stellar superb amazing 47%. Now let me turn to guidance for the fiscal year ending May 31, 2024. I'm going to give you color on not only the full year, the first half and the second half, and we typically do that at this stage.

第一季我們總共支付了 3.22 億美元的股息。我們 12 個月的滾動股本回報率為 47%，非常驚人。現在讓我談談截至 2024 年 5 月 31 日的財年指引。我不僅會為您提供全年、上半年和下半年的信息，而且我們通常會在現階段這樣做。

As you noted, we have raised guidance for interest on funds held for clients and for adjusted EPS, but I want to go through a little bit of color as we go through to give you a sense of what our thinking is. Our current outlook is as follows.

正如您所指出的，我們已經提出了對客戶持有的資金利息和調整後每股收益的指導，但我想在我們討論過程中進行一些說明，以便讓您了解我們的想法。我們目前的展望如下。

You saw that Management Solutions still expected to grow in the range of 5% to 6%. PEO and Insurance Solutions expected to grow in the range of 6% to 9%. Interest on funds held for clients now, as I mentioned, expected to be in the range of $140 million to $150 million raised from our previous guide of $135 million to $145 million and before I get the question, are we anticipated a range? Are we anticipating a range of additional increases?

您看到，管理解決方案仍預計將成長 5% 至 6%。 PEO 和保險解決方案預計將成長 6% 至 9%。正如我所提到的，現在為客戶持有的資金利息預計將在1.4 億美元至1.5 億美元之間，而我們之前的指導為1.35 億美元至1.45 億美元，在我回答這個問題之前，我們是否預計會在一個範圍內？我們是否預計會有一系列額外的成長？

No. We're poised looking at what the Fed is doing just like everyone else is, but this is our best estimate of at least some additional activity by the Fed, but not -- likely not contemplating all of it. To the extent that the Fed does something now, we'll have a conversation later in the year, maybe the Fed will decide that they actually do want to pause. But at this point, that's where we anticipate being.

不。我們準備像其他人一樣關注聯準會正在做什麼，但這是我們對聯準會至少一些額外活動的最佳估計，但可能不會考慮所有這些活動。就聯準會現在採取的行動而言，我們將在今年稍後進行對話，也許聯準會決定他們確實想暫停。但目前，這就是我們預期的情況。

Total revenue is expected to grow in the range of 6% to 7%, but now we think this is likely towards the high end of the range. So operating income margin is expected to be in the range of 41% to 42%. Other income net is expected to be income in the range of $30 million to $35 million.

總收入預計將成長 6% 至 7%，但現在我們認為這可能會達到該範圍的高端。因此營業利益率預計在41%至42%之間。其他淨收入預計在 3,000 萬至 3,500 萬美元之間。

Effective income tax expected to be in the range of 24% to 25%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected to grow in the range of 9% to 11%, and this is raised from our previous guide of 9% to 10%.

有效所得稅預計在24%至25%之間。調整後稀釋每股盈餘預計成長 9% 至 11%，高於我們先前 9% 至 10% 的預期。

This full year outlook assumes current macroeconomic conditions which have some uncertainty surrounding future interest rate changes and their impact on the economy. And I would just say, it's been almost, I would say, at least 6 quarters where we keep saying "Hey, we don't know what's going to happen in the back half of the year and it could change our outlook." I think John summarized it very well. At this point, things look pretty stable. So we're feeling directionally more and more confident in the back half.

本全年展望假設當前的宏觀經濟狀況對未來利率變化及其對經濟的影響存在一定的不確定性。我只想說，我想說，至少有 6 個季度我們一直在說“嘿，我們不知道今年下半年會發生什麼，這可能會改變我們的前景。”我認為約翰總結得很好。至此，事情看起來相當穩定。所以我們對後半場的方向性越來越有信心。

Project in the second half of the year, we anticipate total revenue growth of approximately 7% and operating margin in the range of 42% to 43%. I heard some comments after first when we released guidance that we have a ramp in the back half of the year. I wouldn't describe our current guidance as a significant ramp in the back half of the year. Obviously, there are differences in the back half of the year that will navigate through and talk to you, but the difference between first half and second half is not dramatic.

下半年項目，我們預期總收入成長約7%，營業利潤率在42%至43%範圍內。當我們發布下半年的指導意見時，我聽到了一些評論。我不會將我們目前的指導描述為今年下半年的大幅成長。顯然，下半年會出現一些差異，這些差異將貫穿並與你交談，但上半年和下半年之間的差異並不顯著。

Of course, all of these comments are subject to our current assumptions, which are subject to change. We will update you again on the second quarter call. So let me just repeat a couple of things to make sure.

當然，所有這些評論均取決於我們當前的假設，這些假設可能會發生變化。我們將在第二季的電話會議上再次向您通報最新情況。因此，讓我重複幾件事來確定一下。

First half 2024, total revenue growth in the range of 6% to 7%, operating margin in the range of 40% to 41%. And then in the second half, at this point, we anticipate total revenue growth to be approximately 7%, operating margin in the range of 42% to 43%. I refer you to our investor slides on the website for additional information.

2024年上半年，總收入成長在6%至7%範圍內，營業利潤率在40%至41%範圍內。然後在下半年，我們預計總收入成長約為 7%，營業利潤率在 42% 至 43% 之間。我建議您參閱網站上的投資者幻燈片以獲取更多資訊。

Before handing things back over to John, I would just like to say that I appreciate the relationship I've built with each of you during my time here at Paychex. We've had a long time together, and it's time to hand the reins over to someone else who I think will do an even better job than I have.

在將事情交還給約翰之前，我只想說，我很感謝我在 Paychex 期間與你們每個人建立的關係。我們在一起已經很長一段時間了，現在是時候把領導權交給其他人了，我認為他會比我做得更好。

One of the things that strikes me during that entire time, and many of you have been here for the entire ride. I got a call and someone -- or I got a note and someone said, Efrain you're making me old because I've retired two CFOs at Paychex. So I think that's unfortunately true. We're all getting a little bit older.

整個過程中令我印象深刻的一件事是，你們中的許多人全程都在這裡。我接到一個電話，有人——或者我收到一張便條，有人說，Efrain 你讓我變老了，因為我已經退休了 Paychex 的兩名首席財務官。所以我認為不幸的是這是真的。我們都在慢慢變老。

But one of the things that always strikes me is that we are covered by the best group of analysts in the business. I say that even though I've disagreed with some of you over the years, and I still think you have us rated too low, but be that as it may. I can't argue with some of the things that you write.

但令我印象深刻的一件事是，我們擁有業界最優秀的分析師團隊。我這麼說，儘管多年來我一直不同意你們中的一些人的觀點，而且我仍然認為你們對我們的評價太低了，但無論如何。我無法反駁你寫的一些東西。

So -- and in a separate note, I just want to say this, I've worked with Bob Schrader for many years, both here and prior to Paychex. I know that I'm leaving you in very capable hands. And I'm sure that Bob will do an even better job than the one that I do.

因此，在另一篇文章中，我只想說，我已經與 Bob Schrader 合作多年，無論是在這裡還是在 Paychex 之前。我知道我會把你交給非常有能力的人。我確信鮑伯會比我做得更好。

And with that, let me turn it back to John.

接下來，讓我把話題轉回約翰身上。

Well, thank you, Efrain. Before I open the call for questions, probably two things. One, we have a lot of people here. And last time, Efrain did a great job of providing rules on questions, particularly around compound questions and multiple follow-ups. So if we could just follow the Efrain rule, in honor of Efrain's retirement. I know he would greatly appreciate it, and maybe we can create a new tradition here. But no, feel free to answer any of questions.

嗯，謝謝你，埃夫拉因。在我開始提問之前，可能有兩件事。第一，我們這裡有很多人。上次，Efrain 在提供問題規則方面做得很好，特別是圍繞複合問題和多個後續問題。因此，如果我們能夠遵循埃夫拉因規則，以紀念埃夫拉因的退休。我知道他會非常感激，也許我們可以在這裡創造一個新的傳統。但不，請隨意回答任何問題。

But I would like to also add, make everyone aware, there's many ways you can learn more about Paychex and there really the amazing success stories and the impact that we're having on the world. We recently launched a series of reports that you can find on our Investor page, both our annual report, our ESG report and a new client impact report. And very shortly, you'll be seeing a new Investor Relations 101 presentation that will be launched on the website prior to our annual meeting in the coming weeks.

但我還想補充一點，讓每個人都意識到，您可以透過多種方式了解更多有關 Paychex 的信息，其中確實有令人驚嘆的成功故事以及我們對世界的影響。我們最近推出了一系列報告，您可以在我們的投資者頁面上找到這些報告，包括我們的年度報告、ESG 報告和新的客戶影響報告。很快，您將看到新的投資者關係 101 演示文稿，該演示文稿將在未來幾週舉行的年度會議之前在網站上發布。

And again, I think these documents provide a lot more color and really a lot more insights of just how significant, how broad our products are, how big an impact we're having on our customers, how big an impact we're having on our employees, how and why Paychex is known as one of the most admired the most ethical and most innovative companies in the world, and I encourage you to check that out.

再說一次，我認為這些文件提供了更多的色彩，並且確實提供了更多的見解，說明我們的產品有多重要、有多廣泛、我們對客戶的影響有多大、我們對客戶的影響有多大。我們的員工，Paychex 如何以及為何被稱為世界上最受尊敬、最有道德和最具創新性的公司之一，我鼓勵您查看一下。

So with that, advertisement of our investor website, Shelby, you can now turn it over for questions.

因此，我們的投資者網站謝爾比 (Shelby) 的廣告，您現在可以將其翻過來提問。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們將接受巴克萊銀行 Ramsey El-Assal 提出的第一個問題。

Congratulations to you, Efrain. We'll miss hearing your voice on these calls, certainly. I was wondering if you could comment on the interest from corporate investments was relatively high in the first quarter and it doesn't necessarily feel like that's going to flow through for -- to the full year guide in terms of maybe recurring each quarter. So maybe if you could talk about that contribution to other income and just how you might see it trending the rest of the year.

恭喜你，埃夫拉因。當然，我們會想念您在這些電話中的聲音。我想知道您是否可以評論第一季企業投資的興趣相對較高，而且感覺不一定會流向全年指南，因為可能每季都會重複出現。因此，也許您可以談談對其他收入的貢獻，以及您如何看待它在今年剩餘時間的趨勢。

Yes. So Ramsey, there's a couple of things that go into that line beyond just -- so for everyone, who isn't focusing on that line that much. So that's a combination of our interest expense. Our interest income from corporate portfolios primarily and also some gains and losses on investments that we have in a small investment fund that we have.

是的。拉姆齊，除了這一點之外，還有一些事情涉及到這一點——所以對於每個不太關注這一點的人來說。這是我們利息支出的總和。我們的利息收入主要來自公司投資組合，還有我們在小型投資基金中的投資收益和損失。

Those things can swing a bit during the year and are subject to whatever we think the balance is going to be on corporate funds during the year. We made an acquisition, so we expect that during the year, our average corporate balances will be lower, so that will generate lower interest income. And then the other part of that Ramsey, is gains and losses on that other investment as we mark-to-market can change from quarter-to-quarter. So there could be a little bit of lumpiness in that number, but it might be a little bit different.

這些事情在一年中可能會略有波動，並且取決於我們認為今年公司資金餘額的情況。我們進行了收購，因此我們預計今年我們的平均企業餘額會較低，從而產生的利息收入也會較低。然後拉姆齊的另一部分是其他投資的損益，因為我們按市值計價可能會隨著季度的變化而變化。所以這個數字可能有點混亂，但也可能有點不同。

I would say one other thing, just by way of color on that line. We ended up with a fairly high cash balance that was influenced by timing. I think I called that out or if I didn't, let me call it out now. It just really had to do with the day on which we closed the quarter. So our cash balances were higher. They are likely to be a bit lower -- not a bit lower but lower as we progress through the year. So you might see that number change a bit.

我想說另一件事，只是通過該線上的顏色。受時間影響，我們最終獲得了相當高的現金餘額。我想我已經說過了，或者如果我沒有說過的話，讓我現在就說出來。這確實與我們關閉季度的那一天有關。所以我們的現金餘額更高。它們可能會更低一點——不是一點點低，而是隨著我們今年的進展而降低。所以你可能會看到這個數字發生了一些變化。

Okay. Fantastic. And a quick follow-up. If you could talk about SECURE Act 2.0, how you see that evolving and how you see that potentially -- presumably benefiting the business over time?

好的。極好的。並快速跟進。如果您可以談論《安全法案 2.0》，您如何看待它的演變以及您如何看待它的潛力——隨著時間的推移，可能會為企業帶來好處？

Yes. Look, SECURE Act 2.0, I think, is a great action, a great step that the government has taken is encouraging and helping small and midsized businesses provide for the retirement of their employees. We're certainly out there educating the market on the opportunity. It really provides an opportunity for them to add a 401(k) plan, get a tax credit back for the implementation fees, sort of the setup fees of the plan and then allows them to actually do a match for their employees and get that back into a tax credit as well.

是的。看，我認為《安全法案 2.0》是一項偉大的行動，政府採取的一項偉大舉措是鼓勵和幫助中小企業為其員工提供退休金。我們當然會向市場宣傳這個機會。它確實為他們提供了一個機會，可以添加 401(k) 計劃，獲得實施費、計劃設置費的稅收抵免，然後允許他們實際為員工進行匹配並收回這些費用也納入稅收抵免。

So we're very happy, our 401(k) business has continued to have very, very strong growth that has continued. The thing I continue to remind people, we have some experience in this and other state mandates. And what we realized is that there's a lot of education that has to go on to get the market educated about the cost of a 401(k) plan, the benefits of a 401(k) plan. And certainly, we're out actively in the market, educating the market, educating our strategic partners on that. And we believe that the SECURE Act 2.0 is going to allow us to continue to sustain the double-digit growth rates that we've seen in the retirement business in the last several years.

所以我們非常高興，我們的 401(k) 業務持續保持非常非常強勁的成長。我繼續提醒人們，我們在這項州規定和其他州規定方面擁有一些經驗。我們意識到，必須繼續進行大量教育工作，才能讓市場了解 401(k) 計畫的成本和 401(k) 計畫的好處。當然，我們積極進入市場，教育市場，教育我們的策略夥伴。我們相信，《安全法案 2.0》將使我們能夠繼續維持過去幾年退休業務的兩位數成長率。

And we'll take our next question from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

我們將回答安德魯·尼古拉斯和威廉·布萊爾提出的下一個問題。

This is Daniel Maxwell on for Andrew today. To start off, I was hoping you could dig in a little on any changes the dynamic between ASO and PEO and whether over the past couple of months, you've seen any preferences shift on that? You called it out the last couple of quarters. I was wondering if anything changed.

我是丹尼爾麥克斯韋，今天為安德魯做主播。首先，我希望您能深入了解 ASO 和 PEO 之間動態的任何變化，以及在過去的幾個月中，您是否看到了對此的任何偏好變化？你在過去幾個季度就說過了。我想知道是否有什麼改變。

Yes. So I would say this, we continue to see strong demand for our HR outsourcing solutions across the board. And I would say that the balance is probably more back to prior to '23, where we saw a little shift to ASO, we've seen more of what are the more traditional balance of ASO to PEO. As we mentioned on our last call, we've made some changes, I think, to our product portfolio in the PEO that I think has balanced that out a little bit.

是的。所以我想說的是，我們繼續看到對我們的人力資源外包解決方案的全面強勁需求。我想說，這種平衡可能更多地回到了 23 年之前，當時我們看到了向 ASO 的一點轉變，我們看到了更多 ASO 與 PEO 之間更傳統的平衡。正如我們在上次電話會議中提到的，我認為我們對 PEO 中的產品組合做了一些改變，我認為這已經平衡了一點。

The other thing that I would point to that we mentioned on the prior call is that when we over-index with ASO in the prior year, we always look at that as a great opportunity for us to go back to those customers and then upgrade them or select them into our PEO product. And we started doing that. We actually -- that's a good example of AI, where we're actually using AI tools to be able to go into the ASO base and find clients that we believe there's going to be a valuable value proposition to be in the PEO relationship for a multitude of different reasons. And that program actually has shown results in the first quarter. It's early in the process, but I would tell you that our transition of ASO to PEO customers -- the number of customers that we transitioned this first quarter versus last first quarter was nearly 2x the number of clients.

我要指出的是，我們在之前的電話會議中提到的另一件事是，當我們在前一年對ASO 進行過度索引時，我們總是將其視為我們回饋這些客戶然後升級他們的絕佳機會或將它們選擇到我們的 PEO 產品中。我們開始這樣做。實際上，這是人工智慧的一個很好的例子，我們實際上使用人工智慧工具能夠進入 ASO 基地並找到客戶，我們相信這些客戶在 PEO 關係中將有一個有價值的價值主張多種不同的原因。該計劃實際上已在第一季取得了成果。現在還處於流程的早期階段，但我想告訴您，我們從 ASO 轉向 PEO 客戶的轉變——我們第一季轉變的客戶數量與去年第一季的客戶數量幾乎是客戶數量的 2 倍。

So exactly what we thought could happen, which was we over-indexed when the ASO in the prior fiscal year, we continue to sell outside to new logos, and that was also double-digit strong in appeal in the first quarter. So we had both benefits. We had strong outside the base, growth in PEO in the first quarter, and we had good migration or upgrades ASO to PEO, which was a good start to the first quarter. We still got three quarters to go and we're in the middle of our open enrollment, which is critical there. But good early signs. We had good signs in the PEO in the fourth quarter, and we talked about that on the last call, and that just accelerated in the first quarter. So now we just got to see if that can continue into the core selling season.

因此，正是我們認為可能發生的情況，即我們在上一財年的 ASO 中過度索引，我們繼續向外部銷售新徽標，這在第一季度的吸引力也達到了兩位數的強勁水平。所以我們兩者都有好處。第一季我們的外部基礎強勁，PEO 成長，我們有良好的遷移或升級 ASO 到 PEO，這是第一季的良好開端。我們還有四分之三的時間，而且我們正處於公開招生的中間，這對我們來說至關重要。但早期跡象良好。我們在第四季度的 PEO 中看到了良好的跡象，我們在上次電話會議上談到了這一點，並且這一跡像在第一季度加速了。所以現在我們只需看看這種情況是否能持續到核心銷售季節。

Great. Good to hear. And then for my follow-up. Any detail you can give on the increase to the direct insurance costs from workers' comp? Any color or any reminder of your exposure to any volatility in that area?

偉大的。很高興聽到。然後是我的後續行動。您能提供任何有關工人補償直接保險費用增加的細節嗎？有任何顏色或任何提醒您暴露在該區域的任何波動中嗎？

Yes. This is Bob. Yes, I mean, we obviously take risk in the PEO business on workers' comp. Obviously, we are very prudent in managing that risk and picky on which risk we're willing to take. I'd say there's growth in the quarter primarily driven by -- we have growth in worksite employees that's going to drive higher workers' compensation costs. We go through every quarter and do true-ups of our reserves and so forth. But nothing specific to call out other than growth in the business that would drive growth and direct cost.

是的。這是鮑伯。是的，我的意思是，我們顯然在 PEO 業務中承擔了工人補償方面的風險。顯然，我們在管理風險方面非常謹慎，並對我們願意承擔的風險很挑剔。我想說，本季的成長主要是由工作場所員工的成長所推動的，這將推高工人的補償成本。我們每季都會檢查並調整我們的儲備等等。但除了業務成長會推動成長和直接成本外，沒有什麼特別值得指出的。

Yes. There's been no change to our underwriting standards. There's no change to our programs in terms of caps and limits and no real change in the overall program performance. So...

是的。我們的承保標準沒有變動。我們的計劃在上限和限制方面沒有變化，整體計劃績效也沒有真正的變化。所以...

Congrats again to Efrain on your retirement and Bob on your promotion.

再次恭喜 Efrain 退休和 Bob 晉升。

And we'll take our next question from Bryan Bergin with TD Cowen.

我們將回答 Bryan Bergin 和 TD Cowen 提出的下一個問題。

Efrain and Bob, let me echo my congrats as well. Efrain, it's been nice working with you here. Enjoy your retirement. I got to ask the question because we've gotten a lot of questions just as it relates to ERTC. So it doesn't sound like you have any change in your fiscal '24 revenue expectation there surrounding ERTC after this recent IRS announcement. But can you just dig in there a little bit more since there have been a lot of questions, is there any evidence of any clients wanting to potentially delay submitting new claims there? Any dynamic there to be mindful of?

Efrain 和 Bob，也讓我表達我的祝賀。 Efrain，很高興在這裡和你一起工作。享受你的退休生活。我必須問這個問題，因為我們收到了很多與 ERTC 相關的問題。因此，在國稅局最近宣布這一消息後，您對 ERTC 的 24 財年收入預期似乎沒有任何變化。但是，由於存在許多問題，您能否再深入了解一下，是否有任何證據表明任何客戶希望推遲在那裡提交新的索賠？有什麼需要注意的動態嗎？

Listen, Bryan, I appreciate the question. Look, ERTC was in line with our expectations in the first quarter. We continue to submit, no one's wanting to delay. The program is going to end, and again, the IRS announcement is not stopping anyone's efforts in -- our efforts in approaching clients or assisting them in filing the tax credits. And in fact, the IRS specifically commented to clients and small business owners that they should seek trusted partners to complete their filings.

聽著，布萊恩，我很欣賞這個問題。看，ERTC 第一季的表現符合我們的預期。我們繼續提交，沒有人願意拖延。該計劃即將結束，國稅局的聲明並沒有阻止任何人的努力——我們接觸客戶或協助他們提交稅收抵免的努力。事實上，美國國稅局特別向客戶和小型企業主表示，他們應該尋找值得信賴的合作夥伴來完成他們的申報。

The IRS -- pause in processing and accepting. So they're accepting filings, it's really due to some just really bad actors out there that are providing that advice to small businesses and putting them at risk. I talked about this probably a year ago when this started, and these little pop-up companies started to show up. And again, I think that the IRS is trying to do a prudent thing to tamp down on fraud and also to make sure that small businesses are not getting bad advice from these pop-up firms. So we actually are continuing to accept and encouraging our clients and prospects to file, and we provide a service, we're really confident that the advice we're giving them is adequate, and we'll continue to try to get the processing done before the filing deadline early next calendar year. The delay impact for the client is really going to be in the processing, which is really going to be when they get the refund.

美國國稅局—暫停處理和接受。所以他們接受申請，這實際上是因為一些非常糟糕的行為者向小型企業提供了建議，並將它們置於危險之中。大概在一年前，當這一切開始時，我就談到了這一點，這些小型彈出式公司開始出現。再說一遍，我認為美國國稅局正在努力採取謹慎的做法來打擊詐欺行為，並確保小型企業不會從這些彈出式公司那裡得到不好的建議。因此，我們實際上正在繼續接受並鼓勵我們的客戶和潛在客戶提交申請，並且我們提供服務，我們非常有信心我們為他們提供的建議是充分的，我們將繼續努力完成處理在明年年初的提交截止日期之前。對客戶的延遲影響實際上將體現在處理過程中，即當他們獲得退款時。

Okay. Very good. That's clear. And then my follow-up, just on the target here. Can you share as it relates to the M&A, the financial profile of this target, just any revenue attribution to call out now included in the current year outlook? I did hear you mention, I believe the upper end of your growth range, but just wanted to confirm there were no organic offsets of that.

好的。非常好。很清楚。然後我的後續行動，就在這裡的目標。您能否分享一下與併購相關的問題、該目標的財務狀況以及當前年度展望中包含的任何收入歸屬？我確實聽到你提到，我相信你的增長範圍的上限，但只是想確認沒有有機抵消。

Organic offsets? What do you mean by that.

有機抵消？你是什​​麼意思。

As far as anything in the organic side being offset by now any incremental inorganic in the year?

至於有機方面的任何內容是否被今年任何增量無機部分所抵消？

Not really, Bryan. I mean it will contribute a modest amount of revenue. We'll call it out as we go through the year, but it's not masking something or additive in that respect. I think there's a number of different vectors of growth in the company that are working pretty well. So no, not really.

不是真的，布萊恩。我的意思是它將貢獻少量的收入。我們會在這一年中指出這一點，但它並沒有掩蓋這方面的某些東西或添加劑。我認為公司有許多不同的成長方式，效果都很好。所以不，不是真的。

And we'll take our next question from Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.

我們將回答 RBC 資本市場 Ashish Sabadra 的下一個問題。

Bob and Efrain, congrats to both of you. Just on my question, I wanted to better understand the raising of the guidance and confidence in the back half. Is that both on management solution as well as CEO? Any color on that front?

鮑伯和埃弗萊恩，恭喜你們兩位。就我的問題而言，我想更好地理解後半場指導性和信心的提升。管理解決方案和執行長都是如此嗎？前面有顏色嗎？

Yes. So one is kind of, I'd say, process and structural. And then the second is the substance of what we saw in the first half. So the process and the substance is simply that at a point in time, you're taking a snapshot and saying, okay, when we issued the guidance back 4 months or so ago, we had a certain set of macro conditions. We didn't know whether they would hold at that point. The macro conditions, as John said earlier, haven't changed significantly. So we fast forward 4 months and now we have more certainty as to what environment we're looking at, at least in the medium term, medium term being 3 to 6 months. So that's one.

是的。我想說，其中之一是過程和結構。第二個是我們在上半場看到的實質內容。因此，過程和實質很簡單，在某個時間點，你拍一張快照並說，好吧，當我們大約 4 個月前發布指導意見時，我們有一組特定的宏觀條件。我們不知道他們是否會堅持到那時。正如約翰之前所說，宏觀環境並沒有發生重大變化。所以我們快轉 4 個月，現在我們對我們所關注的環境有了更多的確定性，至少在中期是這樣，中期是 3 到 6 個月。這就是其中之一。

The second part is we look at the trends in the business, where we close, where we correct in terms of the trends that we saw. You heard some of the comments that John said on the PEO. So much of that was what we expected from an execution standpoint, but it's one thing that's expected, it's another thing to deliver it. And thus far, we've started on a good note.

第二部分是我們研究業務趨勢，我們在哪裡關閉，在哪裡根據我們看到的趨勢進行修正。您聽到了約翰對 PEO 的一些評論。從執行的角度來看，其中大部分內容都是我們所期望的，但期望是一回事，交付它是另一回事。到目前為止，我們已經有了一個好的開始。

So those are two parts of it. So by the time we get to September and we're into October now, we know with a reasonable degree of certainty what Q2 looks now, we project forward into the back half of the year. And do we feel reasonably confident based on the combination of all the factors that we're seeing that the back half expectations will be as we expected. We sit here, the answer is yes.

所以這是它的兩個部分。因此，當我們進入 9 月和現在進入 10 月時，我們已經相當確定地知道第二季度現在的情況，我們將預測到今年下半年。基於我們所看到的所有因素的結合，我們是否對下半年的預期將如我們預期的那樣感到相當有信心？我們坐在這裡，答案是肯定的。

So as you look at the guidance that I anticipate that PEO will strengthen in the back half of the year. And at this point, we're seeing indication. Can we say that certainty? You can never say anything certainly. But we -- based on all of that combination of factors, we feel pretty positive about where things are trending.

因此，當您查看指導時，我預計 PEO 將在今年下半年走強。此時，我們看到了跡象。我們可以這麼肯定嗎？你永遠不能肯定地說任何事。但基於所有這些因素的組合，我們對事情的發展趨勢感到非常樂觀。

Yes. I -- just to add on to that, I think, again, every business has -- we have a rhythm and the third quarter is a critical -- that's our selling season. And so what the macro environment will be in the third quarter, fourth quarter. Those are always the things we're trying to guess.

是的。我 - 只是補充一點，我認為，每個企業都有 - 我們有一個節奏，第三季度是關鍵 - 這是我們的銷售季節。那麼第三季、第四季的宏觀環境會是怎樣。這些始終是我們試圖猜測的事情。

I think what I would characterize at this point in time is when we left the fourth quarter, I talked about the second half of our last fiscal year, we actually saw new sales bookings both in management solutions and the PEO and Insurance accelerating. We continue to see that double-digit momentum in the first quarter, HR Outsourcing, ASO and PEO, strong mid-market in the quarter. Retirement strong, digital payroll is strong. So when we look at the demand environment, then we look at the employment environment with our index and what we're seeing, the first quarter set up to be kind of a repeat and continuation of what we saw in the second half and particularly the fourth quarter.

我想我現在要描述的是，當我們離開第四季度時，我談到了上一財年的下半年，我們實際上看到管理解決方案以及 PEO 和保險方面的新銷售預訂都在加速。我們繼續看到第一季兩位數的成長勢頭，人力資源外包、ASO 和 PEO，本季的中端市場表現強勁。退休強勁，數位薪資強勁。因此，當我們審視需求環境時，我們會根據指數和我們所看到的情況來審視就業環境，第一季將是我們在下半年看到的情況的重複和延續，特別是第四季度。

Now as it relates to the PEO business, as we talked about, the insurance is a portion of that insurance attachments, it's part of the reason why we have a little bit wider range. What you have to determine there is how many companies continue to offer benefits to their employees, that's the first choice. The second choice is how many of those employees sign up for health insurance and what plans do they sign up for.

現在，由於它與 PEO 業務相關，正如我們所討論的，保險是保險附件的一部分，這也是我們範圍更廣的原因之一。你要確定的是有多少公司繼續為員工提供福利，這是第一選擇。第二個選擇是有多少員工簽署了健康保險以及他們簽署了哪些計劃。

Now we are only a quarter way through that decision process, which really has already started about 25% that went through. What I would say at this point, 25% away, we're running a little bit on par where we expected. And if that continues, I think that's what gives us confidence in the back half. But again, I still got three quarters of that process left. And again, I want to be predictable relative to what we should expect. And so we're being, I think, prudently cautious in making sure that we're executing both management solution. We're taking advantage of the opportunities in the marketplace. And then in the PEO and Insurance, making sure we're doing what we need to do to make sure we have a successful open enrollment and drive insurance attachment.

現在我們只完成了決策過程的四分之一，實際上已經開始了大約 25% 的過程。我現在要說的是，距離 25%，我們的運行情況與我們的預期基本一致。如果這種情況繼續下去，我認為這會給我們後半場帶來信心。但同樣，這個過程我還剩下四分之三。再說一次，我希望相對於我們應該期望的事情是可預測的。因此，我認為，我們在確保執行這兩種管理解決方案時保持謹慎態度。我們正在利用市場上的機會。然後在 PEO 和保險方面，確保我們正在做我們需要做的事情，以確保我們成功公開註冊並駕駛保險附件。

That's great color. And maybe if I can just ask a quick follow-up question on the commentary on the PEO side on the improved insurance attach rate. Obviously, last quarter, you also talked about a leaner product. And I was wondering if that's driving better adoption or you're seeing just better -- or stronger demand for insurance products?

那顏色真棒。也許我可以就 PEO 方面關於提高保險附加率的評論提出一個快速的後續問題。顯然，上個季度，您也談到了更精簡的產品。我想知道這是否會推動更好的採用，或者您看到了更好的保險產品或更強大的需求？

Yes. I -- so I would say that there's a multitude of things, but we probably tweaked every aspect of how we approach the insurance, both in terms of analytics of what we're doing relative to targeting customers that we think can drive -- we can drive the value proposition there. We've changed the technology. We've changed our advisory approach, and we've expanded the products of choices that both employers and employees can have. We've improved our educational tools in that process. We've got a lot more engagement with our HR advisers with clients around that.

是的。我 - 所以我想說，有很多事情，但我們可能調整了我們處理保險的各個方面，無論是在分析我們正在做的事情還是針對我們認為可以推動的目標客戶方面 - 我們可以推動那裡的價值主張。我們改變了技術。我們改變了諮詢方式，並擴大了雇主和員工可以擁有的產品選擇。在此過程中我們改進了我們的教育工具。圍繞著這一點，我們與人力資源顧問和客戶進行了更多的接觸。

So I would say, across the board, after what we experienced a year ago in the first quarter, we looked at every aspect of it and the team has really done a great job there and just reimagining how we need to approach this. And again, we're only 25% of the way through, but we're seeing results from those activities. And I do think demand for insurance, I think it's going to be interesting. We were very pleased with our renewals. I mean, if you read in the general press, right now, you will see that there is a degree of health inflation. And when that occurs, we do typically see more customers shopping for alternatives and we think we have a good value proposition there.

所以我想說，總的來說，在經歷了一年前第一季的經歷之後，我們審視了它的各個方面，團隊在這方面確實做得很好，只是重新構想我們需要如何解決這個問題。再說一次，我們只完成了 25%，但我們已經看到了這些活動的成果。我確實認為對保險的需求將會很有趣。我們對續約感到非常滿意。我的意思是，如果你現在閱讀一般媒體，你會發現有一定程度的健康膨脹。當這種情況發生時，我們通常會看到更多的客戶購買替代品，我們認為我們在那裡有一個很好的價值主張。

And we'll take our next question from Scott Wurtzel with Wolfe Research.

我們將回答 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Wurtzel 提出的下一個問題。

Maybe just going back to the acquisition. Just wondering if you can maybe give a little bit more color on the strategic rationale behind it and sort of said another way, like why now with this deal and maybe relative to some of the other targets you were looking at?

也許只是回到收購。只是想知道您是否可以對其背後的戰略原理提供更多的色彩，並以另一種方式表達，例如為什麼現在進行這項交易，也許相對於您正在考慮的其他一些目標？

Well, I'll bracket it in 3 ways. The first thing is that John alluded to or said earlier, the ability for small businesses to access funding and small and medium service, I should say, access funding is important so we had our eyes on looking to build our capability in that area.

好吧，我將以三種方式將其括起來。首先，約翰之前提到或說過，小型企業獲得資金和中小型服務的能力，我應該說，獲得資金很重要，所以我們著眼於建立我們在該領域的能力。

The second thing is acquisitions are, as you know, they don't always present themselves in exactly the timing, which you expect them to. And when an opportunity arises, then you do what you need to do to take advantage of it. We saw an opportunity for a high-quality asset and decided that it was the right time.

第二件事是，如您所知，收購併不總是按照您期望的時間準確出現。當機會出現時，你就會做你需要做的事情來利用它。我們看到了優質資產的機會，並認為這是正確的時機。

And I'd say the third is that it's an interesting environment for small businesses. So where access to funding opportunities is becoming more tricky given what's happened with banks and with rising interest rates. So we think the timing seemed to fit pretty well. And again, yes, I don't spend too much time. It's a relatively modest acquisition based on our revenue side. But we think we've had a lot of success with our Paychex Advance acquisition, and it's a very profitable corner of the market, and we think we can do the same thing with the company that we bought. Possible alternative by the way.

我想說的第三點是，這對小型企業來說是一個有趣的環境。因此，考慮到銀行發生的情況和利率上升，獲得融資機會變得更加棘手。所以我們認為時機似乎非常適合。再說一遍，是的，我不會花太多時間。從我們的收入來看，這是一次相對溫和的收購。但我們認為我們透過收購 Paychex Advance 取得了很大的成功，這是一個非常有利可圖的市場角落，我們認為我們可以對我們收購的公司做同樣的事情。順便說一句，可能的替代方案。

Yes. I would just add, neither one of these things are new to us. We kind of got dragged into this. When COVID hit, if you remember the PPP program and the banks were struggling to figure out how to access it and we put a program together. And that started a partnership with several fintechs. And we did both technology integrations, et cetera, and that led to more of a partnership approach. And then we have several partners that if we have clients that meet our risk profile and are wanting to maybe need to fund a payroll or something like that. We've got partners that we could introduce them to.

是的。我想補充一點，這些事情對我們來說都不是什麼新鮮事。我們有點被捲入其中。當新冠疫情襲來時，如果您還記得 PPP 計劃，銀行正在努力弄清楚如何存取該計劃，我們制定了一個計劃。並開始與多家金融科技公司建立合作關係。我們進行了技術整合等等，這導致了更多的合作夥伴關係。然後我們有幾個合作夥伴，如果我們的客戶符合我們的風險狀況並且希望可能需要提供薪資或類似的資金。我們有合作夥伴可以將他們介紹給他們。

So we got kind of introduced to this concept and certainly then the macro environment with what Efrain just said, banks, rising interest rates. And we just know we have a lot of great customers out there, small midsized customers that are strong businesses that just really struggled to get access to capital at affordable rates. And so that started just through a partnership piece.

因此，我們了解了這個概念，當然還有埃夫拉因剛才所說的宏觀環境，銀行，利率上升。我們只知道我們有很多優秀的客戶，中小型客戶，這些客戶都是實力雄厚的企業，只是很難以可負擔的價格獲得資本。這一切都是透過合作關係開始的。

And then we had the advanced business, which was kind of doing this for staffing companies and we've been in that and it's been a great business for us, a great acquisition business for us, introduces payroll customers. And those are a lot of positives there and those are adjacent. And so literally, it's one of the classic, you're at a conference and you know people who know people and the timing seemed right. And just based upon the need we saw and the fact that we thought there were opportunities for us to potentially help our strong customers continue to grow their business. And we've already been introducing them to partners. Why not introduce them to ourselves and get a piece of that action. So that was kind of the strategic rationale. And it's a small -- like you said, very small at this point in time.

然後我們有先進的業務，這是為人力資源公司做的，我們一直在做這件事，這對我們來說是一項偉大的業務，對我們來說是一項偉大的收購業務，引入了工資客戶。這些都是很多正面的一面，而且這些都是相鄰的。從字面上看，這是經典之一，你在參加一個會議，你認識的人也認識別人，而且時機似乎很合適。基於我們看到的需求以及我們認為我們有機會幫助我們的強大客戶繼續發展業務的事實。我們已經將它們介紹給合作夥伴。為什麼不把他們介紹給我們自己並從中分一杯羹呢？這就是戰略理由。它很小——就像你說的，在這個時間點非常小。

Got it. That's super helpful. And then just as a follow-up, I mean, just one quickly on the float portfolio. When we think about the recent Fed commentary in dot plots showing maybe a sustained higher rate trajectory than maybe we were expecting a few months ago. I'm afraid, I know you've talked about in the past going to position the portfolio more on longer duration securities. I'm just wondering if this -- the recent Fed commentary sort of gears you even more towards sort of the longer duration securities in the portfolio rather than shorter duration.

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後，我的意思是，作為後續行動，快速進行浮動投資組合。當我們思考聯準會最近在點圖中的評論時，顯示的利率軌跡可能持續高於我們幾個月前的預期。恐怕，我知道您過去曾談論過將投資組合更多地配置在長期證券上。我只是想知道最近聯準會的評論是否會讓你更傾向於投資組合中期限較長的證券，而不是期限較短的證券。

Yes. We are reviewing it monthly to figure out based on -- and looking at the same dot plots you are to see what happens. I would just go back to something I said from the point that the Fed started raising rates.

是的。我們每月都會對其進行審查，以找出基於 - 並查看相同的點圖，看看會發生什麼。我只想回到聯準會開始升息時所說的內容。

The problem is in taking advantage of the rates going up. The problem is what happens when you come down. And so we're positioning the portfolio, we will position the portfolio, and I'm sure Bob will do the same to be able to manage it in an orderly way on the way down. So we're looking at -- this is a time when you want to go longer if you can, even if perhaps there are opportunities on the short end of the curve because at some point, it will come up or come down. And that's what you got to figure out how best to manage and that's what we're working on.

問題在於如何利用利率上漲的機會。問題是當你下來時會發生什麼。因此，我們正在定位投資組合，我們將定位投資組合，我相信鮑伯也會做同樣的事情，以便能夠在下跌過程中有序地管理它。所以我們正在考慮——如果可以的話，你想走得更長一些，即使曲線的短端可能有機會，因為在某個時候，它會上升或下降。這就是你必須弄清楚如何最好地進行管理，這就是我們正在努力的方向。

And we'll take our next question from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通的黃天欽提出的下一個問題。

I just want to follow-up on the acquisition, the $200 million acquisition here in the strategic fit with Paychex Advance, I remember when that deal was announced, and there was a lot about payroll funding and factoring and whatnot. Is this now more about early wage access, and some of the more modern funding opportunities for employees. I just want to make sure I understand what you're adding specifically here.

我只想跟進這項收購，這是與 Paychex Advance 策略契合的 2 億美元收購，我記得這筆交易宣佈時，有很多關於工資融資和保理等方面的內容。現在更多的是關於早期工資獲取，以及為員工提供一些更現代的融資機會。我只是想確保我理解您在此處具體添加的內容。

Yes. The short answer is no. So that's a separate initiative that at some point, we'll talk about when it becomes more significant. Now, Tien-Tsin, what they do is more focused on receivable. So obviously, we dipped our toe in the water with staffing firms, but we saw an opportunity that was broader than that because our -- all of our clients to have one degree or another receivables, and it can become a source of financing. And we've got the data to make it work.

是的。最簡潔的答案是不。因此，這是一項單獨的舉措，在某個時候，我們將討論它何時變得更加重要。現在，天進，他們做的更專注於應收帳款。顯然，我們嘗試與人才派遣公司合作，但我們看到了比這更廣泛的機會，因為我們所有的客戶都擁有一種學位或另一種應收帳款，它可以成為融資來源。我們已經獲得了使其發揮作用的數據。

Okay. Very clear. So is this an AR opportunity?

好的。非常清楚。那麼這是一個 AR 機會嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Understood. Okay. No follow-up for me. I just want to wish you, Efrain, all the best, of course, for the next chapter. And I've said it before, you've been really helpful for us for a long time. So thanks for that, definitely going to miss talking to you.

明白了。好的。我沒有後續行動。當然，我只想祝你，Efrain，下一章一切順利。我之前就說過，長期以來你對我們真的很有幫助。所以謝謝你，我肯定會想念和你說話的。

We'll take our next question from Peter Christiansen with Citigroup.

我們將回答花旗集團的 Peter Christiansen 提出的下一個問題。

Welcome, and congrats to Bob and certainly, congrats and thank you to Efrain. John, I want to dig a little bit into your thoughts on SMB lending in general. Obviously, this news is a big money center bank is getting into the payroll business a bit more and SMB lending is often thought as a nice adjacency here. Should we consider the possibility that Paycheck may further delve into SMB lending, whether it be merchant cash advances or other types of working capital solutions. Do you see that in Paychex' future?

歡迎並祝賀鮑勃，當然，祝賀並感謝埃夫拉因。約翰，我想深入了解您對中小企業貸款的整體看法。顯然，這個消息表明一家大型貨幣中心銀行正在更多地涉足薪資業務，而中小企業貸款通常被認為是一個很好的鄰接點。我們是否應該考慮 Paycheck 進一步涉足中小企業貸款的可能性，無論是商家現金墊款還是其他類型的營運資金解決方案。您認為 Paychex 的未來會是這樣嗎？

Well, look, I think what we're trying to do is make sure that we're focused on what do we need to do to help our clients succeed. And as I said, whether that's through partnership or if there's opportunities for us to participate in that process, integrating that with our technology, those are really the things that we're interested in.

好吧，我認為我們正在努力做的是確保我們專注於我們需要做什麼來幫助我們的客戶取得成功。正如我所說，無論是透過合作夥伴關係，還是我們有機會參與這個過程，將其與我們的技術結合，這些都是我們真正感興趣的事情。

And when we hear our clients and we're engaging those clients to our advisers on a constant basis, say this is an issue for them. We go and search for answers, and partnerships are part of that. And as I said, we have several partnerships with fintech that we're doing relationships with large banks. I can go deeper on that if you want to know about banking and banks in payroll. We do -- we have businesses that do that.

當我們聽取客戶的意見並且不斷地讓這些客戶與我們的顧問接觸時，我們會說這對他們來說是一個問題。我們去尋找答案，而合作關係就是其中的一部分。正如我所說，我們與金融科技有多個合作夥伴關係，我們正在與大型銀行建立關係。如果您想了解銀行業和薪資銀行，我可以更深入地討論這一點。我們確實這樣做——我們有這樣做的企業。

But I think, in general, you should not read anything more into this than the factors they need out there that we had an adjacent business that has been very successfully managed and has been a good return for our shareholders. And there was a natural relationship and opportunity that we thought by us coming in with our balance sheet, with our expertise, with our client base, that we could potentially make something of this. And so I don't think you should be reading anything more into it, an opportunistic acquisition that matches a need that we're seeing today from our customers and one that based upon the macro environment, we think are going to grow. And I don't think this is a competition with any of the major banks. Most of these clients are just not getting access to the funds. It's just not available. And if there's more tightening at the regional bank, which is generally the go-to place for a lot of these small and medium-sized businesses, that's not good for small business owners. And so we're going to try to figure out how we can build partnerships to do that.

但我認為，總的來說，除了他們需要的因素之外，你不應該對此進行更多的解讀，因為我們有一項相鄰的業務，該業務管理得非常成功，並且為我們的股東帶來了好的回報。我們認為，透過我們的資產負債表、我們的專業知識和我們的客戶群，我們有可能利用這一點實現一些自然的關係和機會。因此，我認為您不應該對它進行更多解讀，這是一次機會主義收購，符合我們今天從客戶那裡看到的需求，並且基於宏觀環境，我們認為將會成長。我認為這不是與任何一家主要銀行的競爭。這些客戶中的大多數只是無法獲得資金。它只是不可用。如果地區銀行（通常是許多中小企業的首選銀行）進一步收緊政策，那對小企業主來說就不是什麼好事。因此，我們將嘗試找出如何建立合作關係來實現這一目標。

That's super helpful. And then just as a follow-up, just wondering if you could call out any trends balances trade wise? Are there areas where you see Paychex has an opportunity to improve competitive dynamics or vice versa, some areas where you're a bit more on defense versus offense. Just any sense on balance of trade versus some of your competitors and maybe some of the regionals as well.

這非常有幫助。然後作為後續行動，只是想知道您是否可以指出任何貿易平衡趨勢？您是否認為 Paychex 在某些領域有機會改善競爭動態，反之亦然，在某些領域您更注重防守而不是進攻。與您的一些競爭對手以及某些地區的貿易平衡有關的任何意義。

Well, I mean, I'd just say this. As we've talked about, our sales momentum continues in the first quarter that we saw in the second quarter. On the macro side, when I'm looking at it, I'm not seeing any major shifts at all relative to balance of trade in the competitive environment. I commented on the fourth quarter. When I do look under it, again, these things go back and forth. I would say it's gaining a little more in our favor on the competitive front in several key areas that we monitor. We had a good first quarter in the mid-market. That was -- there were several good signs there as well. But it's not monumental, Peter.

嗯，我的意思是，我只想說這個。正如我們所討論的，我們的銷售勢頭在第一季延續了第二季度的勢頭。在宏觀方面，當我觀察時，我沒有看到競爭環境中相對於貿易平衡的任何重大變化。我評論了第四季。當我再次查看它下面時，這些東西來來回回。我想說的是，在我們監控的幾個關鍵領域，它在競爭方面對我們更有利。我們在中端市場的第一季表現良好。那是——那裡也有幾個好的跡象。但這並不具有紀念意義，彼得。

It's the same market, very stable competitive environment. Same set of competitors, low end, mid, high-end PEO. It's the same kind of character, same kind of pricing environment, competitive environment. It's a competitive marketplace. We'll leave it at that. And I think we're winning more than our fair share.

這是同樣的市場，非常穩定的競爭環境。同一組競爭對手，低階、中端、高階 PEO。都是同一種性格，同一種定價環境，競爭環境。這是一個競爭激烈的市場。我們就這樣吧。我認為我們贏得的勝利超出了我們應得的份額。

we'll take our next question from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

我們將接受德意志銀行的 Bryan Keane 提出的下一個問題。

I want to ask about the free cash flow increase year-over-year in the first quarter, it was substantial. I think it was up over 23%. How much of that was that onetime in working capital? And how much should that carry through the fiscal year? Or should we see a decrease in kind of growth rate in free cash flow to equal out to the same growth of the 9% to 11% earnings growth by the time we get to the end of the fiscal year?

我想問一下第一季自由現金流年增情況，這是相當可觀的。我認為上漲了 23% 以上。其中有多少是一次性的營運資金？整個財政年度應該有多少？或者，到本財年結束時，我們是否應該看到自由現金流成長率下降，以相當於獲利成長率 9% 至 11%？

Yes, Bryan, this is Bob. I mean, I think that's a fair way to think about it. I think as you guys know, we typically don't have big swings in our working capital. And as Efrain mentioned, we had a little bit of a timing there at the end of the quarter. The quarter ended on a big collection day. So we had a big influx of cash that would go out the next day.

是的，布萊恩，這是鮑伯。我的意思是，我認為這是一個公平的思考方式。我想你們都知道，我們的營運資金通常不會有很大的波動。正如 Efrain 所提到的，我們在季度末有一些時機。該季度在一個重要的收款日結束。所以我們有大量現金湧入，隔天就會花掉。

So the way to really think about our operating cash flows and then obviously, free cash flow gets impacted by M&A. So there was a little bit of an impact there in Q1 to free cash flow. But typically, our operating cash flow growth is going to trend in line with our net income growth. And so you'll see that moderate as we move through the year, and that's what you should expect from a growth standpoint.

因此，要真正考慮我們的營運現金流，顯然，自由現金流會受到併購的影響。因此，第一季自由現金流受到了一些影響。但通常情況下，我們的經營現金流成長將與我們的淨利潤成長保持一致。因此，隨著今年的進展，你會看到這種溫和的趨勢，從成長的角度來看，這就是你應該期望的。

Got it. Got it. And then just a follow-up. I was hoping to get an update on what you guys are seeing for SMB bankruptcy rates. I know they've been a little bit elevated in the recent past here. I'm just curious if that's still elevated levels? Or has it become more normalized?

知道了。知道了。然後只是後續行動。我希望了解你們所看到的中小企業破產率的最新情況。我知道他們最近在這裡的地位有點高。我只是好奇這是否仍然很高？還是已經變得更常態化了？

Yes. No. So when we say elevated, I think that they're elevated over what we saw during the COVID period, there's 2, 2.5 years. Actually, bankruptcies are still slightly below where they were pre-pandemic and kind of trending toward a normalized rate. We have seen that, I would say, particularly in that start-up businesses when we had the big start-up boom, we've seen a lot more out of businesses on the very small, and I think we called that out in our press release. Revenue retention at near record levels. And when you look at our HR outsourcing business is at record levels. And so that's what we've kind of seen on the bankruptcy side.

是的。不。所以當我們說升高時，我認為它們比我們在新冠疫情期間看到的要高，有 2 年、2.5 年。事實上，破產率仍略低於疫情前的水平，並且有趨於正常化的趨勢。我想說，我們已經看到，特別是在初創企業中，當我們經歷了大規模的初創企業繁榮時，我們看到了更多的小型企業，我想我們在我們的報告中指出了這一點。新聞稿。收入保留率接近歷史最高水準。當你看到我們的人力資源外包業務處於創紀錄的水平。這就是我們在破產方面看到的情況。

The other interesting stat related to bankruptcies that kind of surprised me in the first quarter is we actually saw an uptick in new business starts. And again, we had this big elevated area and then we kind of gravitated back down towards kind of normal levels that we actually saw in the first quarter, new business starts click up, which was interesting.

第一季令我驚訝的與破產相關的另一個有趣的統計數據是，我們實際上看到新業務的啟動增加。再說一遍，我們有一個很大的高架區域，然後我們又回到了我們在第一季實際看到的正常水平，新業務開始點擊，這很有趣。

And we'll take our next question from Samad Samana with Jefferies.

我們將回答 Samad Samana 和 Jefferies 提出的下一個問題。

Great. Efrain, I'm going to missing working with you and enjoy a well-deserved retirement, sir. I appreciate all the help over the years. Maybe just a quick one for me, a lot of my questions have been asked. But just how are you guys seeing the top of the funnel in terms of inbound leads to the digital channel? Any change in maybe interest levels, registrations for webinars, just anything that would look as a leading indicator of bookings? And how is that trend in maybe first quarter?

偉大的。 Efrain，先生，我會懷念與您一起工作並享受當之無愧的退休生活。我感謝多年來所有的幫助。也許對我來說只是一個簡短的問題，我的許多問題都被問到了。但是，你們如何看待漏斗頂部的數位管道入站銷售線索呢？興趣程度、網路研討會註冊情況等方面是否有任何變化，或者任何看起來可以作為預訂領先指標的內容？第一季的趨勢如何？

Again, I'll go back. If our sales are growing at double-digit rates in the first quarter, digital is an ever-growing portion of that business, you can surmise that, that's growing as well. So we continue to see strong demand environment across the businesses, both digitally and really across the board. I wouldn't doubt that.

再一次，我會回去。如果我們的銷售額在第一季以兩位數的速度成長，那麼數位業務在該業務中所佔的比例不斷增長，您可以推測，數位業務也在成長。因此，我們繼續看到整個企業的強勁需求環境，無論是數位化還是全面的。我對此毫不懷疑。

Great. And then maybe just on your own hiring plans with the quarter doing better than expected, maybe some trends you're seeing, any change to your own sales hiring plans? Or should we expect maybe the original game plan for the year?

偉大的。然後，也許只是您自己的招聘計劃，本季的表現好於預期，也許您看到了一些趨勢，您自己的銷售招聘計劃有任何變化嗎？或者我們應該期待今年最初的遊戲計劃嗎？

No. Really, no change in plans. We're certainly in the second quarter, always in the staffing up and making sure we're fully staffed and able to cover any thought or planned attrition going into the selling season, both on the service side and the sales side.

不，真的，計劃沒有改變。我們肯定在第二季度，總是在人員配備方面，並確保我們人員配備齊全，並且能夠涵蓋進入銷售季節的任何想法或計劃的人員流失，無論是在服務方面還是在銷售方面。

So I think it's fair to say when you have now going on close to 3 quarters of strong demand when you've been relatively, is it going to stay? Is it going to stay? We certainly want to make sure that we're properly staffed to take full advantage of all the opportunity in our selling season. and we're fully staffed on the operations and the service side to make sure that we can both onboard and services clients during year-end.

因此，我認為可以公平地說，當您現在持續近三個季度的強勁需求且相對而言，這種需求會持續下去嗎？它會留下來嗎？我們當然希望確保我們配備適當的人員，以充分利用銷售季節的所有機會。我們在營運和服務方面配備了充足的人員，以確保我們能夠在年底為客戶提供服務。

we'll take our next question from Eugene Simuni with MoffettNathanson.

我們將接受尤金·西穆尼 (Eugene Simuni) 和莫菲特·內桑森 (MoffettNathanson) 提出的下一個問題。

Congratulations, Efrain and Bob. Efrain, we'll miss working with you. Bob, look forward to working with you. Just have two quick follow-ups. One, tying together your comments on sales and current, can you comment how that's together to client growth trends this year so far? Last year was a bit below your historical target range. And I think you commented last quarter that this year, you're looking for reacceleration in client growth kind of above 2% a year. So can you comment on how it's going so far?

恭喜埃弗萊恩和鮑勃。 Efrain，我們會懷念與你合作的時光。鮑勃，期待與您合作。只需進行兩次快速跟進即可。第一，將您對銷售和當前的評論結合起來，您能否評論一下這與今年迄今為止的客戶成長趨勢有何關係？去年略低於您的歷史目標範圍。我認為您上個季度曾評論說，今年您希望客戶成長速度重新加速，每年成長 2% 以上。您能評論一下到目前為止進展如何嗎？

Eugene, I'll start that and then John can cover. It really -- if I were to give you a number, it would give you some sort of full sense of what reality is. It's almost impossible to draw a conclusion on that or where you are in first quarter. In some ways, some trends of -- some trends are positive, and you can drive conclusions on project out through the year, but client base is really a tricky one. And the reason is just lose so many and gain so many in the selling season that it's almost difficult to predict. We expect to be a bit better than we were last year, but it's still early innings.

尤金，我先開始，然後約翰來報道。確實如此——如果我給你一個數字，它會讓你對現實有某種全面的認識。幾乎不可能就此或第一季的情況得出結論。在某些方面，某些趨勢是正面的，您可以得出全年專案的結論，但客戶群確實是一個棘手的問題。原因是在銷售季節損失太多，收益太多，幾乎很難預測。我們預計會比去年好一些，但現在還處於早期階段。

Got it. Okay. And then -- and now the follow-up is on the PEO and the question there is, in your PEO customer base in terms of kind of checks per control, are you seeing any trends that are different from your overall base whether better or worse employment growth?

知道了。好的。然後，現在的後續行動是 PEO，問題是，在您的 PEO 客戶群中，就每個控制的檢查類型而言，您是否看到任何與總體基礎不同的趨勢，無論是好是壞就業成長？

Yes. I would say it's probably consistent. We definitely see employees and our PEO clients in our PEO business, adding employees. I wouldn't say it's a huge tailwind, but it's positive and probably in line with what we're seeing in other areas of the business.

是的。我想說這可能是一致的。我們肯定會在 PEO 業務中看到員工和 PEO 客戶，並增加員工。我不會說這是一個巨大的推動力，但它是積極的，並且可能與我們在其他業務領域看到的情況一致。

And we'll take our next question from Mark Marcon with Baird.

我們將回答馬克馬爾孔和貝爾德提出的下一個問題。

Efrain, we go back a long way, it's been an absolute pleasure working with you. And I want to thank you for the relationship. And Bob, looking forward to working with you. But Efrain, it's been an absolute pleasure.

Efrain，我們已經走過很長一段路了，與您合作非常愉快。我要感謝你們的關係。鮑勃，期待與您合作。但埃弗萊恩，這絕對是一種樂趣。

A lot of questions have been on the short term. John, one big picture question. a quarter ago, everybody was asking about AI. Obviously, you've been -- Paychex has been doing a lot with AI for a long period of time. I'm wondering if you can just talk a little bit about now that some of these LOMs have been around for a couple of quarters and permeated the consciousness. How are you thinking about further evolution of your journey with AI? And what are the longer-term implications from a margin perspective or a scope of business perspective?

很多問題都是短期的。約翰，一個大問題。一個季度前，每個人都在詢問人工智慧。顯然，Paychex 長期以來一直在人工智慧方面做了大量工作。我想知道您是否可以簡單談談，其中一些 LOM 已經存在了幾個季度並滲透到人們的意識中。您如何看待人工智慧之旅的進一步發展？從利潤角度或業務範圍角度來看，長期影響是什麼？

Wow, that's -- Mark, that is a big question.

哇，那是——馬克，這是一個大問題。

Everybody is asking about the quarter.

每個人都在詢問本季的情況。

No. It's a -- And it's a great one because I really think this is probably has the potential to be one of the biggest differentiators that's going to help a company like Paychex separate ourselves from the rest. Because as you said, the large language model starts with a large. And the only way that this works is you've got to have large sets of data and large sets of data coming through to continually train those models.

不，這是一個很棒的公司，因為我真的認為這可能有潛力成為最大的差異化因素之一，幫助像 Paychex 這樣的公司從其他公司中脫穎而出。因為正如你所說，大語言模型是從大開始的。實現這一點的唯一方法是您必須擁有大量資料來持續訓練這些模型。

I will also say relative to -- it's expensive to do and it's getting more expensive both in terms of finding the people and buying the technology. And I think that's going to also back some people out. But let me just give you some idea. I mean we have multiple teams across the organization looking at every aspect of our business, front office, back office, G&A and evaluating how we could better leverage all of the capabilities of the data that we have.

我還要說的是，相對而言，這樣做的成本很高，而且在尋找人才和購買技術方面都變得更加昂貴。我認為這也會讓一些人退出。但讓我給你一些想法。我的意思是，我們整個組織內有多個團隊，負責專注於業務、前台、後台、一般管理費用的各個方面，並評估如何更好地利用我們擁有的數據的所有功能。

So think of it today, we're recording 6.5 million calls with our clients. This year, we're transcribing those calls. We are using analytics to determine whether or not we have a service opportunity or if we have a sales opportunity or an upsell opportunity in the conversations that they're having with our advisers. We are already doing almost 1 million natural language processing analysis on our sales conversations with prospects, looking for what are the right phrases, words, market segments, where we're winning. And then adjusting that overnight and changing our sales play the next morning. Using some of that in our PEO, we've nearly doubled our close rate in the first quarter. I mean I just could go on and on about where we're piloting and testing and using our data to do this.

現在想一想，我們正在對客戶的 650 萬通電話進行錄音。今年，我們正在記錄這些電話。我們正在使用分析來確定我們是否有服務機會，或者在他們與我們顧問的對話中是否有銷售機會或追加銷售機會。我們已經對與潛在客戶的銷售對話進行了近 100 萬次自然語言處理分析，尋找我們能夠獲勝的正確短語、單字、細分市場。然後連夜進行調整，並在第二天早上改變我們的銷售策略。在我們的 PEO 中使用其中的一些內容，我們第一季的成交率幾乎翻了一番。我的意思是，我可以繼續談論我們正在哪裡進行試點、測試以及使用我們的數據來做到這一點。

And so I think there are tremendous opportunities and then when you begin to productize this and start thinking about the value that we can provide, the retention insights, which we launched, I keep bringing this up, we launched this a 1.5 years ago, we want an award for AI. And I think at the time, no one even wrote anything much about it. And because I was thinking people knew what AI was and quite frankly, it's -- I think that's just one example of multiple examples we're going to be able to drive more value to customers. And so I think we're going to be able to go with a value proposition.

因此，我認為存在巨大的機會，然後當你開始將其產品化並開始思考我們可以提供的價值、我們推出的保留洞察力時，我不斷提起這一點，我們在1.5 年前推出了這一點，我們想要獲得人工智慧獎。我認為當時甚至沒有人寫過任何關於它的東西。因為我認為人們知道人工智慧是什麼，坦白說，我認為這只是我們將能夠為客戶帶來更多價值的多個例子中的一個例子。所以我認為我們將能夠遵循價值主張。

And to be fair, there's other large competitors that probably are going to make similar claims. But I certainly think it's a differentiator. If you run a local payroll company, you're not going to have the same data and the insights that Paychex has relative to what's going on in your area, and what's going on in the labor market. And if we can harness that and use technology to deliver that to our salespeople, our service people and our HR advisers, I think the trusted adviser position that we've already established ourselves for small and medium-sized businesses is only going to be further sustained and probably increase. So I think Bob is going to give me the hook to give us the bandwagon (inaudible).

公平地說，還有其他大型競爭對手也可能提出類似的主張。但我當然認為這是一個差異化因素。如果您經營當地薪資公司，您將不會獲得與 Paychex 相同的有關您所在地區正在發生的情況以及勞動力市場正在發生的情況的數據和見解。如果我們能夠利用這一點並利用技術將其提供給我們的銷售人員、服務人員和人力資源顧問，我認為我們已經為中小型企業建立的值得信賴的顧問地位只會更進一步持續並可能增加。所以我認為鮑伯會給我一個機會，讓我們跟上潮流（聽不清楚）。

And then for my follow-up, just a quick question. Just in terms of the margin uplift from the first half to the second half, aside from normal seasonality and obviously, float balances certain forms processing. Is there anything to call out above and beyond that? Is it just a pace of investments in the first half being a little bit front-end loaded?

接下來，我想問一個簡單的問題。就上半年到下半年的利潤率提升而言，除了正常的季節性因素外，顯然，浮存金平衡了某些表格處理。除此之外還有什麼值得指出的嗎？難道只是上半年的投資節奏有點前端負荷？

Yes. I think that's it, Mark. I'd say a couple of things. One is we -- if you noticed the pattern and P&L pretty obvious. We have tended to front load a little bit more of spending in part to make sure that we're prepared for selling season. And then as we get into the fourth quarter, typically, we've heavied up our spending in anticipating -- in anticipations starting the year stronger. Q3, as you know, because you have that influx of annual processing generally makes Q3 margins higher.

是的。我想就是這樣，馬克。我想說幾件事。一是我們——如果你注意到模式和損益表非常明顯的話。我們傾向於預先增加一點支出，部分原因是為了確保我們為銷售季節做好準備。然後，當我們進入第四季度時，通常情況下，我們會增加支出以進行預期 - 預期年初會更加強勁。如您所知，第三季度，因為年度加工量的湧入通常會使第三季度的利潤率更高。

And then Q4, I don't anticipate it to be quite as heavy as it's been in prior years when you combine those two you get to a little bit more spending in the first half, a little bit less in the back half but more revenue in the back half without creating the margin uplift that I mentioned. There's nothing unusual about it, it just is the way that the revenue and expenses flow through.

然後是第四季度，我預計它不會像前幾年那樣沉重，當你將這兩者結合起來時，上半年的支出會增加一點，下半年會少一點，但收入會增加在後半部分沒有產生我提到的利潤提升。這沒有什麼不尋常的，這只是收入和支出的流動方式。

We'll take our last question from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

我們將回答摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特提出的最後一個問題。

I want to share my congratulations to Bob and Efrain. Just wanted a quick follow-up question here on PEO and you had mentioned some of your customers, and I think you've kind of talked about this and had pulled back on providing ancillary services like insurance and 401(k), et cetera. But now you're calling out some growth in those same ancillary services as the driver of PEO growth quarter.

我想向鮑伯和埃夫萊恩表達我的祝賀。只是想問一個關於 PEO 的快速跟進問題，您提到了您的一些客戶，我認為您已經談到了這一點，並且不再提供保險和 401(k) 等輔助服務。但現在您將這些相同的輔助服務的一些成長稱為 PEO 成長季度的驅動力。

What are the things that you're watching for to gauge like the durability of that improvement and kind of response by your customers and employers?

您正在關注哪些因素來衡量改進的持久性以及客戶和雇主的反應類型？

So James, you mean what are we looking at?

那麼詹姆斯，你的意思是我們在看什麼？

Yes. Yes. Like what are the things in the more macro economy or even in your customer behavior to try to gauge and project the durability of that improvement?

是的。是的。例如在更宏觀的經濟中，甚至在你的客戶行為中，有哪些因素可以用來衡量和預測這種改善的持久性？

Well, let me start, and then John can and maybe Bob can weigh in. So I just want to make sure that I'm answering the question correctly. I think the key thing, and if you step back on the PEO is we saw that attachment last year was where we expected it to be. And also we saw an opportunity to tilt the balance a bit between what was an ASO sale versus a PEO sale.

好吧，讓我開始，然後約翰可以，也許鮑勃可以權衡。所以我只想確保我正確回答了問題。我認為關鍵的是，如果你退一步討論 PEO，我們發現去年的依附程度正是我們預期的。我們也看到了在 ASO 銷售與 PEO 銷售之間稍微傾斜平衡的機會。

So what we're looking at, at least to start the year is first, are we positioned appropriately on the insurance side to be able to take advantage of that and create momentum as we go into some key points in the year, which occur in the fall and then at the beginning of the year on insurance attachment. One thing, James, that's important to point out.

因此，我們首先要考慮的是，至少在今年開始時，我們是否在保險方面進行了適當的定位，以便能夠利用這一點並在我們進入今年的一些關鍵點時創造動力，這些關鍵點發生在秋季和年初的保險附加。詹姆斯，有一點需要指出。

Last year, when we were talking at this point, we were seeing actually something unusual, where we're seeing clients dropping insurance and actually lowering their attachment -- I'm sorry, not their attachment, their enrollment. So we haven't seen that at start of the year. So the absence of a negative is positive. So I think we're right. That's one piece. And John called out something I think that is that is important. Also that balance between what we're seeing on ASO and PEO, that seems to come into a little bit more balance. So I think those two things both have started the year well. So I don't know...

去年，當我們談論這一點時，我們實際上看到了一些不尋常的事情，我們看到客戶放棄了保險，實際上降低了他們的依戀——我很抱歉，不是他們的依戀，而是他們的註冊。所以我們在今年年初還沒有看到這一點。因此，沒有消極因素就是積極因素。所以我認為我們是對的。那是一件。約翰提出了一些我認為很重要的事。此外，我們在 ASO 和 PEO 上看到的平衡似乎也更加平衡。所以我認為這兩件事今年開局都很好。所以我不知道...

Yes. No, I just trying to understand. So remember, we've got -- you've got existing client behavior, particularly as it relates to attachment. And again, it's always difficult because the insurance, it's pass-through, it doesn't have a huge impact on margin as an oversized impact on the revenue number, right, because it's the way it works.

是的。不，我只是想理解。所以請記住，我們已經有了——你已經有了現有的客戶行為，特別是與依戀相關的行為。再說一遍，這總是很困難，因為保險，它是傳遞性的，它不會像對收入數字那樣對利潤產生巨大影響，對吧，因為這就是它的運作方式。

And so you have two dynamics. One was existing customers that have the product, are they continuing to want that attachment? And then what are they attaching? Are they catching the Cadillac plan or the basic low-value plan? That's the first decision. And last year, we had something we normally don't see, and we have not seen thus far through our enrollment of people, as Efrain said, consider going to war plan dropping and not offering. That -- we're not seeing that behavior, we saw that last year.

所以你有兩種動力。一是擁有該產品的現有客戶，他們是否繼續想要該配件？那麼他們附加了什麼？他們選擇的是凱迪拉克計劃還是基本的低價值計劃？這是第一個決定。去年，我們遇到了一些我們通常看不到的事情，而且到目前為止，我們還沒有透過我們的招生看到，正如埃夫拉因所說，考慮放棄而不是提供戰爭計劃。我們沒有看到這種行為，我們去年就看到了。

We saw less people opting to want to add that or seeing value in adding the insurance, but they wanted the HR and they wanted the technology and they wanted our advisory services. They went in the ASO bucket. Now we're going back to some of them that are now saying, okay, wait, now I do want to add the insurance. And now we're upgrading them to the PEO offering. So what we're seeing is, both in terms of new logo demand, some new net customers to Paychex, we're seeing strong demand in our ASO and PEO market with attachment rates in the PEO similar to what we saw prior to the '23 experience.

我們看到越來越少的人選擇添加保險或看到添加保險的價值，但他們想要人力資源，他們想要技術，他們想要我們的諮詢服務。他們進入了 ASO 桶。現在我們回到其中一些現在說，好吧，等等，現在我確實想添加保險。現在我們正在將它們升級為 PEO 產品。因此，我們看到的是，無論是在新標誌需求方面，還是在 Paychex 的一些新淨客戶方面，我們都看到 ASO 和 PEO 市場的強勁需求，PEO 的附著率與我們之前看到的類似。 23 經驗。

And then the third thing that we've got going on is we're going back into this ASO of group of clients that we were -- last year, and we're going back and using analytics and using value propositions to see if we can go back and have some of those clients upgrade and add insurance as part of their value proposition. I hope that answers your question. I was not clear, James, what...

然後我們要做的第三件事是我們要回到去年的 ASO 客戶群，我們要回去使用分析和價值主張來看看我們是否能夠做到這一點。可以回去讓其中一些客戶升級並添加保險作為其價值主張的一部份。我希望這能回答你的問題。我不清楚，詹姆斯，什麼......

Yes. That's actually really helpful. And I guess just as -- so it sounds like for most of your employers in terms of their behavior on particularly some of those offerings is that they're kind of reverting back to what you would expect to be in a normalized environment. And really, it was last year that was really atypical?

是的。這實際上非常有幫助。我想，對於大多數雇主來說，他們在特別是其中一些產品上的行為聽起來就像是他們正在恢復到你在正常化環境中所期望的那樣。真的，去年的情況真的很不典型嗎？

Yes. That's what I would say. And again, you just make stuff up. I was -- I try to remember, 2 years ago, it was the great resignation. Last year this time, the bottom was going to fall out of the economy and all -- the recession was right around the corner. Does everybody recall that? I mean it's just -- it's been a very emotional roller coaster ride for small and medium-sized businesses. And when they're making a decision of this magnitude because you're making a commitment to your employees that you're going to offer a benefit and the expectation is you're baking that into your business model going forward. And so I think there was a lot of hesitancy.

是的。我就是這麼說的。再說一次，你只是編造一些東西。我努力回憶，兩年前，那是一次偉大的辭職。去年的這個時候，經濟即將觸底——經濟衰退即將來臨。大家還記得嗎？我的意思是，對於中小型企業來說，這是一次非常情緒化的過山車之旅。當他們做出如此重大的決定時，因為你向員工做出了承諾，你將提供福利，並期望你將其融入你未來的商業模式中。所以我認為有很多猶豫。

Now does that mean small and medium-sized businesses are more confident today than they were last year? I don't know. But what I can tell you is we're seeing more behavior that is similar to what we've seen in historical patterns, and last year, it seems to be an anomaly. Again, I'm only 25% through the enrollment. But what I'm seeing right now, we'll know more in the next call. Let's leave it at that.

這是否意味著中小企業今天比去年更有信心？我不知道。但我可以告訴你的是，我們看到了更多與我們在歷史模式中看到的行為類似的行為，而去年，這似乎是一種反常現象。再說一遍，我的報名只完成了 25%。但我現在看到的情況，我們會在下次電話會議中了解更多。我們就這樣吧。

At this point, we will close the call. If you're interested in replaying the webcast of this conference call, it will be archived for approximately 90 days. Again, that's on the Paychex investor website, where we also have all these fabulous reports for your read. And again, we want to thank you for your interest in Paychex, and I hope everyone has a great day.

此時，我們將結束通話。如果您有興趣重播本次電話會議的網路廣播，則該網路廣播將存檔約 90 天。同樣，這是在 Paychex 投資者網站上，我們也有所有這些精彩的報告供您閱讀。我們再次感謝您對 Paychex 的興趣，希望每個人都有愉快的一天。

That concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。