沛齊 (PAYX) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Paychex Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note, this call will be recorded, and I will be standing by if you should need any assistance.

大家好，歡迎參加Paychex第二季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）。請注意，本次電話會議將被錄音，如有任何需要，我將隨時為您提供協助。

It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Mr. John Gibson, President and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我很高興將會議交給總裁兼執行長約翰·吉布森先生。請您開始吧，先生。

Thanks, [Todd]. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our discussion of the Paychex second quarter fiscal year '23 earnings release. Joining me today is Efrain Rivera, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，[Todd]。大家早安。感謝各位參加我們關於Paychex 2023財年第二季財報的討論。今天和我一起討論的是我們的財務長Efrain Rivera。

This morning, before the market opened, we released our financial results for the second quarter ended November 30. You can access our earnings release on our Investor Relations website. Our Form 10-Q will be filed with the SEC within the next day. This teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on our website for approximately 90 days.

今天上午，在市場開盤前，我們發布了截至11月30日的第二季財務表現。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上查看這份業績報告。我們的10-Q表格將於明天提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）。本次電話會議將透過網路直播，並將存檔於我們的網站上，保留約90天。

We'll start the call with an update on the business for the second quarter and then Efrain will review our financial results and outlook for fiscal year '23. We'll then open it up to your questions.

我們將先報告第二季的業務狀況，然後Efrain將回顧我們的財務表現和2023財年的展望。之後，我們將開放提問環節。

We delivered solid financial results for the second quarter with total revenue of 7% and adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 9%. Demand for our comprehensive solution suite remains strong, and we are well positioned to help our clients succeed. Our unique combination of leading HR technology, HR expertise and the wide breadth of solutions we have to address the many needs in the marketplace, continue to help small and midsized businesses navigate this very dynamic and challenging environment.

第二季度，我們取得了穩健的財務業績，總營收成長7%，調整後攤薄每股收益成長9%。市場對我們全面的解決方案套件的需求依然強勁，我們已做好充分準備，協助客戶取得成功。我們獨特的優勢在於，將領先的人力資源技術、豐富的人力資源專業知識以及廣泛的解決方案相結合，以滿足市場中的各種需求，從而持續幫助中小企業應對這個瞬息萬變且充滿挑戰的環境。

We continue to closely monitor the macroeconomic environment and our internal leading indicators. The latest findings from our Paychex | IHS Small Business Employment Watch revealed moderating growth in jobs and steady growth in wages. Our clients continue to be challenged by the continuing impacts of the pandemic, inflationary pressures and the challenges of this labor market. However, small and midsized businesses continue to show their resilience.

我們持續密切關注宏觀經濟環境和內部領先指標。 Paychex | IHS 小型企業就業觀察報告的最新結果顯示，就業成長放緩，薪資穩定成長。我們的客戶仍面臨疫情持續影響、通膨壓力和當前勞動力市場挑戰的考驗。然而，中小企業依然展現出強大的韌性。

Our revenue retention remained solid as we focus on retaining clients and driving increased value and penetration of our HR outsourcing, HCM software and retirement solutions. Our overall HR outsourcing business continues to perform well with strong growth in worksite employees and record revenue retention. We achieved a major milestone this quarter. We now serve over 2 million worksite employees across our ASO and PEO business, clearly establishing us as an HR leader.

我們專注於維繫客戶，並致力於提升人力資源外包、人力資本管理軟體和退休解決方案的價值和市場滲透率，因此收入保持穩定。我們的整體人力資源外包業務持續表現良好，現場員工數量強勁成長，營收維持率也創下新高。本季我們達成了一項重要里程碑。目前，我們透過ASO和PEO業務為超過200萬名現場員工提供服務，這無疑鞏固了我們作為人力資源產業領導者的地位。

Our industry-leading HR advisory services sets us apart and our certified HR professionals are truly a unique asset as they are advising our clients on HR issues as well as leveraging our HR technology and the analytics from our vast SMB data set to help our clients achieve greater operational efficiency, increase employee engagement and reduce turnover.

我們行業領先的人力資源諮詢服務使我們脫穎而出，我們認證的人力資源專業人員是真正的獨特資產，他們不僅為我們的客戶提供人力資源問題方面的建議，還利用我們的人力資源技術和我們龐大的中小企業數據集的分析，幫助我們的客戶提高營運效率、提高員工敬業度和降低員工流動率。

While demand for our technology and HR outsourcing solutions remain strong, we continue to see shifts in what offerings clients find are the best fit for their current situation. Both early and during the pandemic, we saw lower demand for adding employer health benefits. We continue to see this trend and also high demand for our ASO solutions, driven by businesses seeking immediate assistance with HR issues and filing for tax credits, but delaying decisions on adding or changing their insurance offering to their employees.

儘管市場對我們技術和人力資源外包解決方案的需求仍然強勁，但我們持續觀察到客戶對最適合其當前情況的產品和服務的需求發生了變化。疫情初期和疫情期間，我們發現企業對增加雇主健康福利的需求有所下降。這一趨勢仍在持續，同時，由於企業尋求立即解決人力資源問題併申請稅收抵免，因此對我們的應用商店優化 (ASO) 解決方案的需求依然旺盛，但企業在決定是否為員工增加或更改保險方案方面卻有所延遲。

In addition, the lower medical plan sales and participant volumes in our health and benefits area of our insurance agency that we discussed last quarter continued in the second quarter, and we saw some similar trends in our Florida at-risk insurance program in the PEO, impacting revenue growth in that area of the business. Awareness and demand of our employee retention tax credit or ERTC service, which helps clients maximize eligible tax credits continues to grow. To date, we've helped more than 50,000 clients secure billions in ERTC.

此外，我們保險代理機構健康與福利部門的醫療計畫銷售額和投保人數在上個季度有所下降，這種情況在第二季度仍在持續。我們在佛羅裡達州的風險型保險計劃（隸屬於專業雇主組織PEO）中也觀察到了類似的趨勢，影響了該業務領域的收入成長。客戶對我們員工留任稅收抵免（ERTC）服務的認知度和需求持續增長，該服務旨在幫助客戶最大限度地利用符合條件的稅收抵免。迄今為止，我們已幫助超過5萬家客戶獲得了數十億美元的ERTC抵免。

A recent survey actually showed just 63% of business -- that 63% of business owners didn't even know that they were eligible for these credits. We continue to educate existing clients of the benefits as well as leverage this service to attract new clients. We continue to invest and enhance our product suite and customer experiences.

最近的一項調查顯示，僅有 63% 的企業——也就是 63% 的企業主——知道自己有資格享受這些稅收抵免。我們將繼續向現有客戶普及這些優惠政策，並利用這項服務吸引新客戶。我們將繼續投資並改善我們的產品組合和客戶體驗。

In November, we released our enhancements to Paychex Flex, focused on further streamlining the recruiting, onboarding, time and attendance, and benefits administration experiences. Through our HR technology, 3 out of 4 Paychex clients surveyed have shortened the time required from recruiting, screening, tracking and onboarding new employees. Those clients reported an average time savings of 26%, indicating that the typical 2-month recruiting cycle has now been reduced to just 6.

11月，我們發布了Paychex Flex的增強功能，旨在進一步簡化招募、入職、考勤和福利管理流程。透過我們的人力資源技術，在受調查的Paychex客戶中，四分之三的客戶縮短了招募、篩選、追蹤和入職新員工所需的時間。這些客戶報告平均節省了26%的時間，這意味著原本需要兩個月的招募週期現在縮短到了僅六個月。

I'm very excited about our Retention Insights offering, which continues to deliver strong results for our clients at a time when businesses remain committed to retaining their existing staff. This feature uses predictive analytics, coupled with our vast data sets to provide insights on potential employee flight risk. Clients leveraging the retention insights offering are showing a 15% reduction in turnover when compared against their industry peers. We're very pleased we received the Bronze Brandon Hall Group Excellence Award for Best Advance in HR Predictive Analytics Technology for this solution. This is the 10th consecutive year they've recognized us.

我對我們的「員工留任洞察」服務感到非常興奮，在企業持續致力於留住現有員工的當下，該服務依然為我們的客戶帶來了顯著的成效。這項功能利用預測分析技術，結合我們龐大的資料集，提供員工潛在離職風險的洞察。與業內同行相比，使用「員工留任洞察」服務的客戶的員工流動率降低了15%。我們非常榮幸憑藉此解決方案榮獲布蘭登霍爾集團卓越獎「人力資源預測分析技術最佳進步獎」銅獎。這已是我們連續第十年獲此殊榮。

During the quarter, we also were recognized with the IDC 2022 SaaS Customer Service Satisfaction Award for core HR. We are honored to have received this award as another confirmation of the power of our HR technology and the quality of our advisory services. These awards continue to validate that Paychex is a technology leader and that our focus on HR is delivering real impact for our clients and our employees.

本季度，我們也榮獲了IDC 2022年度SaaS客戶服務滿意度核心人力資源獎。我們非常榮幸獲得此獎項，這再次印證了我們人力資源技術的強大實力和諮詢服務的卓越品質。這些獎項持續證明Paychex是科技領域的領導者，我們對人力資源的專注正在為客戶和員工帶來實際的影響。

At this time, we're heading into our critical year-end season. We are fully staffed in both sales and service, and we have good momentum. I want to thank all the employees in advance for all their hard work and dedication in making this the best year-end ever.

目前，我們正進入至關重要的年末銷售旺季。銷售和服務部門人員配備齊全，發展動能良好。在此，我要提前感謝所有員工的辛勤付出和敬業精神，正是大家的共同努力，才成就了今年最成功的年末業績。

Now I'll turn it over to Efrain, who will take you through our financial results for the second quarter. Efrain?

現在我把麥克風交給埃弗雷恩，他將為大家介紹我們第二季的財務表現。埃弗雷恩？

Thanks, John, and good morning. I'd like to remind everyone that today's commentary will contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events. You know the customary comments, take a look on our press release if you have any questions on that.

謝謝約翰，早安。我想提醒大家，今天的評論將包含一些關於未來事件的前瞻性陳述。你們都知道慣例，如果對此有任何疑問，請參閱我們的新聞稿。

Let me start by providing some of the key points for the quarter, and then I'll finish with a review of our fiscal 2023 outlook. Both service revenue and total revenue increased 7% to $1.2 billion. Management Solutions revenue increased 8% to $895 million driven by higher client employment levels and revenue per client. Revenue per client was positively impacted by additional product penetration. HR ancillary services, largely ERTC and price realization, we continue to see strong attachment of our HR solutions, retirement and time and attendance solutions.

首先，我將介紹本季的一些關鍵要點，最後再回顧一下我們2023財年的展望。服務收入和總收入均成長7%，達到12億美元。管理解決方案收入成長8%，達到8.95億美元，主要得益於客戶員工人數增加和每位客戶收入的提高。產品滲透率的提升也對每位客戶的收入產生了正面影響。人力資源輔助服務方面，主要包括員工退休培訓和薪酬計劃（ERTC）以及價格實現，我們繼續看到我們的人力資源解決方案、退休計劃和考勤解決方案保持強勁的增長勢頭。

I will note that revenue from our ERTC service benefited second quarter revenue growth by approximately 1%. We anticipated ERTC revenue would moderate in fiscal 2023, but strong demand and execution have led to better-than-expected results. While ERTC was a tailwind to Management Solutions growth for the first half, it will become a moderate headwind in the second half.

需要指出的是，ERTC 服務帶來的收入使第二季營收成長約 1%。我們原本預期 ERTC 營收在 2023 財年會放緩，但強勁的市場需求和高效的執行帶來了超乎預期的業績。儘管 ERTC 在上半年對管理解決方案業務的成長起到了推動作用，但下半年它將成為一定的阻力。

PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue increased 4% to $273 million, driven by growth in average worksite employees and revenue per client. The rate of growth was tempered by the impact of factors John previously discussed, including lower medical plan attachment and participant volumes along with the mix shift to ASO. And I would just note on PEO and Insurance Solutions, Insurance Solutions was significantly below the growth rate of PEO.

PEO和保險解決方案收入成長4%至2.73億美元，主要得益於平均工作場所員工人數和每位客戶收入的成長。但成長速度受到約翰先前提到的一些因素的影響，包括醫療計畫附加率和參與者數量的下降，以及業務結構向ASO的轉變。另外要指出的是，在PEO和保險解決方案中，保險解決方案的成長率遠低於PEO。

Interest on funds held for clients increased 54% for the quarter to $22 million, primarily due to higher average interest rates along with growth in investment balances. Total expenses increased 7% to $718 million. Expense growth was largely attributable to higher headcount, wage rates and general costs to support the growth of our business.

本季客戶資金利息收入成長54%，達到2,200萬美元，主要得益於平均利率上升以及投資餘額成長。總支出成長7%，達7.18億美元。支出成長主要歸因於員工人數增加、薪資水準提高以及其他為支持業務成長而產生的其他一般成本。

Operating income increased 7% to $472 million with an operating margin of 39.7%, in line with the prior year period. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 24.2% compared to 24.1% in the prior year period.

營業收入成長7%至4.72億美元，營業利益率為39.7%，與去年同期持平。本季實際稅率為24.2%，而上年同期為24.1%。

Net income increased 8% to $360 million and diluted earnings per share increased 9% to $0.99 per share. Adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share both increased 9% from the quarter to $359 million and $0.99 per share, respectively.

淨利成長8%至3.6億美元，稀釋後每股收益成長9%至0.99美元。經調整後的淨利和經調整後的稀釋後每股盈餘均較上季成長9%，分別達到3.59億美元和0.99美元。

Quick summary of year-to-date financial results. Total service revenue and total revenue both increased 9% to $2.4 billion. Management Solutions increased 10% to $1.8 billion. PEO and Insurance Solutions increased 6% to $556 million. Op income increased 10% with a margin of 40.4% with modest expansion year-over-year and adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share both increased 12% to $731 million and $2.02 per share.

年初至今財務表現簡述：總服務收入和總收入均成長9%，達到24億美元。管理解決方案營收成長10%，達到18億美元。專業雇主組織（PEO）和保險解決方案收入成長6%，達到5.56億美元。營業利益成長10%，利潤率為40.4%，較去年同期略有成長。調整後淨利和調整後稀釋每股收益均成長12%，分別達到7.31億美元和2.02美元。

Let's look at our financial position. It's strong with cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments of more than $1.3 billion and total borrowings of approximately $808 million as of November 30, 2022. Cash flow from operations increased and was $686 million for the first half of fiscal 2023, and this was driven by higher net income and changes in working capital. We paid out quarterly dividends at $0.79 per share for a total of $569 million during the first half of 2023, our 12-month rolling return on equity was an absolutely stellar 46%.

讓我們來看看我們的財務狀況。截至2022年11月30日，我們的現金、受限現金和公司總投資超過13億美元，總借款約8.08億美元，財務狀況穩健。 2023財年上半年，經營活動產生的現金流成長至6.86億美元，主要得益於淨利成長和營運資本的變動。 2023年上半年，我們按季度派發了每股0.79美元的股息，總計5.69億美元。過去12個月的滾動股本報酬率高達46%，表現十分優異。

Now I'll turn to the guidance for the current fiscal year ending May 31, 2023. Our current outlook incorporates our first half results, obviously, in our view of the evolving macroeconomic environment. We have raised guidance in many areas, but moderated the range for PEO and Insurance Solutions based on factors previously discussed.

現在我將談談截至2023年5月31日的本財年的業績指引。我們目前的展望顯然包含了上半年的業績以及我們對不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境的判斷。我們提高了多個領域的業績指引，但基於先前討論過的因素，我們調整了PEO（專業雇主組織）和保險解決方案業務的業績指引範圍。

Updated guidance is as follows: Management Solutions revenue expected to grow in the range of 7% to 8%; PEO and Insurance Solutions expected to grow in the range of 5% to 7%; interest on funds held for clients is expected to be in the range of $100 million to $110 million; total revenue is expected to grow approximately 8%; and other income expense net, and I'd just remind you that the net of our debt service plus earnings on our corporate portfolios, that number is now expected to be income of $5 million to $10 million. Adjusted diluted earnings per share is now expected to grow in the range of 12% to 14%.

更新後的績效指引如下：管理解決方案收入預計成長7%至8%；專業雇主組織（PEO）及保險解決方案收入預計成長5%至7%；客戶資金利息收入預計在1億至1.1億美元之間；總收入預計成長約8%；其他收入支出淨額（需要提醒的是，扣除償債支出加上公司投資後收入為1000萬美元的收入。調整後攤薄每股收益預計成長12%至14%。

Guidance for margins and effective tax rate are unchanged, although we do anticipate meaning towards the upper end of the range on operating margin and the lower end of the range on effective tax rate.

利潤率和實際稅率的預期保持不變，但我們預期營業利潤率將接近預期範圍的上限，實際稅率將接近預期範圍的下限。

Turning to the third quarter. We currently anticipate that total revenue growth will be approximately 6% and that operating margin in the third quarter will be in the range of 43% to 44%.

接下來展望第三季。我們目前預計總營收成長約為6%，第三季營業利潤率將在43%至44%之間。

Of course, all of this is subject to our current assumptions, which could change if there are changes in the macro environment. We will update you again on the third quarter call, and I will refer you to our investor slides on the website for more information.

當然，所有這些都基於我們目前的假設，而宏觀環境的變化可能會影響這些假設。我們將在第三季財報電話會議上再次向您報告最新情況，更多資訊請參閱我們網站上的投資者關係簡報。

I'll now turn the call back over to John.

現在我將把電話轉回給約翰。

Thank you, Efrain. [Todd], we will now open the call for questions.

謝謝你，埃弗雷恩。 [托德]，現在開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們首先來回答來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·埃爾-阿薩爾提出的問題。

Happy holidays to you. I had a question on the insurance business. I'm just curious, you mentioned lower medical plan attachment and the mix of ASO. What do you think is the underlying driver there? Is there any other color or insight that you have in terms of why that -- sort of those dynamics are kind of kicking in right now?

祝您節日快樂。我有個關於保險業務的問題。您提到醫療保險計劃附加率下降以及ASO（應用商店優化）的融合，我很好奇。您認為其根本原因為何？您對目前這些動態變化的原因還有其他見解嗎？

Yes. Look, I think I'll step back a little bit and then I'll (inaudible) on your question. I think our HR solutions, when you look at the combination of ASO and PEO continues to grow at double-digit rates. We're very happy with the progress there. As we said, we surpassed the 2 million employees served. And if you go back and think about that in fiscal year '19, we were at $1.2 million disclosed. So that's a 72% increase and then you think about that, we had 1 year of COVID, where I think is probably like 3%. So very solid growth in both of those products.

是的。你看，我想我先退一步，然後再回答你的問題。我認為，當我們把ASO和PEO結合起來看時，我們的人力資源解決方案繼續保持兩位數的成長速度。我們對這方面的進展非常滿意。正如我們所說，我們服務的員工人數已經超過了200萬人。如果你回顧2019財年，我們揭露的收入是120萬美元。所以這相當於成長了72%，而且你還要考慮到，我們經歷了一年的疫情，那一年的成長率可能只有3%左右。所以，這兩個產品都實現了非常穩健的成長。

I think when you look inside the agency has struggled. When you look under, there's a lot of economic pressure, I think, on employers and employees. Most of our insurance agency tends to attract first time employers, who are offering insurance for the first time, a lot of new business start type of driven activity. And I think in this environment, I think even though they would want to offer insurance to their clients, I think they're finding that it's economically difficult for them to think about adding that product.

我認為，從內部來看，這家保險代理公司經營困難。從表面上看，雇主和員工都面臨著巨大的經濟壓力。我們大多數的保險代理公司往往吸引的是首次創業的雇主，他們也是第一次提供保險服務，許多業務都是由新公司啟​​動的。我認為，在這種環境下，即使他們想為客戶提供保險，也會發現增加這項業務在經濟上對他們來說很困難。

And then when we look at the participation rate, the other dynamic there is you need 2 things. when you needed an employer to buy it, and then you need to employees to contribute their fair share. We've also seen some decreases in employees, who are electing not to participate in their employer plans. So you have those 2 dynamics, I can't connect the 2 directly. But certainly, when I look at the hours work, when I looked at inflationary pressure of wages, I wouldn't be surprised if that's some of the economic decision that's being made there.

然後，當我們觀察到投保率時，另一個需要考慮的因素是：你需要兩樣東西。一是雇主購買保險，二是員工繳納應繳的份額。我們也看到一些員工選擇不參加雇主提供的保險計劃，導致投保人數下降。所以，存在這兩個因素，我無法直接將它們連結起來。但是，當我觀察工作時長以及薪資通膨壓力時，如果這確實是造成經濟決策影響的因素之一，我不會感到驚訝。

Got it. Okay. Super helpful. One follow-up for me. You also talked about Management Solutions higher product attachment cross-sell. Can you kind of update us on your strategy there? What levers you're using to execute on cross-sell and what inning we're in, in terms of that broader opportunity?

明白了。好的。非常有幫助。我還有一個後續問題。您之前也提到了管理解決方案中更高附加價值的產品交叉銷售。能為我們介紹一下這方面的策略嗎？您使用了哪些手段來執行交叉銷售？就這個更廣泛的機會而言，我們目前處於什麼階段？

Yes. Look, what we've seen across the board, our digital offerings, our online solutions continue to attract their driving efficiency inside companies. That's things that are looking for. You think about our time and attendance solutions. They're also dealing with more dispersed workforces. So that's driving demand, onboarding -- recruiting and onboarding. So we still have a very tight labor market for small and medium-sized businesses.

是的。你看，我們看到，我們的數位化產品和服務，尤其是線上解決方案，持續吸引企業，幫助它們提升內部效率。這正是他們所需要的。想想我們的考勤解決方案。他們也在應對更加分散的員工隊伍。因此，這推動了對新員工入職培訓的需求。所以，中小企業的勞動市場仍然非常緊張。

So our recruiting and onboarding experience has really driven demand, it's in partnership with indeed. As a matter of fact, I think the last time we reported, we were somewhere around 1.8 million employees hired through this new onboarding -- hiring and onboarding, and we're approaching the 3 million mark in just 6 months since we last reported that number. So that's been very attractive as people are trying to attract and retain -- and then our retention and insights.

因此，我們的招募和入職體驗確實推動了需求成長，這得益於我們與Indeed的合作。事實上，我記得上次我們公佈數據時，透過這套新的入職流程（包括招聘和入職）我們招聘了大約180萬名員工，而自上次公佈以來僅僅6個月，我們就接近了300萬大關。這對企業來說極具吸引力，因為他們都在努力吸引和留住人才——而我們的留存率和洞察分析也功不可沒。

So we go out, we have our HR professionals talking to our clients. It's interesting on the Retention Insights. We're actually doing behind the scenes insights to a data analytics team, and they were actually flagging clients that we think have an issue, and then we're proactively going out to them and having our HR consultants engage them in a conversation.

所以我們派出人力資源專業人員與客戶溝通。關於員工留存率洞察，這很有意思。我們實際上在幕後為資料分析團隊提供洞察，他們會標記出我們認為有問題的客戶，然後我們會主動聯繫這些客戶，安排我們的人力資源顧問與他們進行對話。

Our next question comes from Bryan Bergin with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Bryan Bergin。

One of the thing in here just on some of the leading indicators and the demand environment. So just since you reported last and then over the last few weeks. Can you just talk about what you're seeing in that new demand across employer size as well and offering?

這裡涉及到一些領先指標和需求環境。自從您上次報告以來，以及過去幾週的情況，您能否談談您觀察到的新需求，包括不同規模的雇主和不同的產品/服務？

Yes. Again, what I would tell you is, even though the -- it's a challenging and kind of a mixed macro environment, everything you read about the resiliency that we're seeing in the small and midsized businesses continues to be strong. So when you look at the leading indicators that we would be looking at of kind of the first signs of a downturn, we're simply not seeing those in our indicators at this time, and that's what we've reported here.

是的。我再次強調，儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰且喜憂參半，但我們看到的中小企業韌性依然強勁。因此，當我們觀察那些預示經濟衰退的先行指標時，目前我們並未發現任何衰退跡象，而這正是我們在此報告的內容。

I think there's certainly been a rollercoaster effect from the COVID perspective. Certainly, when you look under the covers, I think our mid-market customers and larger customers seem to be doing better than our small customers and small customers seem to be doing better than the micro customers in terms of dealing with inflation and the recruiting scene. But when you look at the overall macro perspective, we're not seeing anything at this time in our indicators that would indicate any kind of downturn for small businesses.

我認為從新冠疫情的角度來看，市場確實經歷了過山車般的波動。當然，如果深入分析，我認為我們的中型和大型客戶在應對通膨和招聘方面似乎比小型客戶表現更好，而小型客戶又比微型客戶表現更好。但從宏觀角度來看，我們目前的各項指標並未顯示小型企業出現任何衰退跡象。

Okay. Okay. That's good to hear. I guess just a follow-up on that. As you think about the macro assumptions underlying the second half outlook. Can you just talk about what you're thinking about for client employment levels, that a business client loss or things like that?

好的，好的，很高興聽到這個消息。我想就此再問一個後續問題。當您考慮下半年展望的宏觀假設時，能否談談您對客戶就業水準、企業客戶流失或其他類似情況的看法？

I think pretty -- at this point, I think we're assuming an environment that's similar to what we saw in the first half. And with this caveat, Bryan, that as we've looked at quarter-over-quarter, you continue to see a pace that is moderating versus the previous quarter. I think that's the trend we think continues into -- through the end of the fiscal. So while it doesn't represent a sharp departure, we still see continuing signs of moderation as we go through the year.

我認為目前來看，我們假設的環境與上半年相似。但布萊恩，需要注意的是，從季度環比來看，成長確實比上一季放緩。我認為這種趨勢會持續到本財政年度結束。因此，雖然這並不意味著增速大幅下滑，但我們仍然可以看到增速放緩的跡象貫穿全年。

Now that assumes that the impact of the Fed -- Fed's rate raising continues to have the same incremental impact it's had in the first couple of quarters. What do I mean by that? I mean, right now, what we see is it's having the effect of starting to tamp wage pressures. It's not having a dramatic impact on hiring especially in the SME firms that we serve. If that started to change, it would change our assumptions. Right now, we don't see that occurring. But right now, we're not at 5% short-term rates. We're going to have to monitor that. And there is just a note of caution that we have as we approach what they would consider their peak short-term interest. So no dramatic departure from the first half.

這假設聯準會升息的影響——聯準會的升息措施繼續像前幾季一樣產生同樣的漸進性影響。這是什麼意思呢？我的意思是，目前我們看到的是，升息開始抑制薪資上漲的壓力。它對招聘，尤其是我們服務的中小企業的招聘，並沒有產生顯著影響。如果這種情況開始改變，我們的假設也會跟著改變。目前，我們還沒有看到這種情況發生。但目前，短期利率還沒有達到5%。我們需要密切注意這一點。而且，隨著短期利率接近其認為的峰值，我們也要保持謹慎。所以，不會出現與上半年截然不同的情況。

Our next question comes from Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑森·庫柏伯格。

I wanted to start just on Management Solutions with the raise of the revenue guidance there. Just -- which of the key operating metrics are you now bullish on? I mean is it pricing, retention, bookings, checks per client?

我想先談談管理解決方案業務，特別是該業務上調營收預期這件事。請問—您現在對哪些關鍵營運指標比較看好？我是說，是定價、顧客留存率、預訂量還是每位顧客的消費額？

Driving that, Jason, is -- let me pick a couple of those out and say where we're stronger, where it's not as strong. So obviously, we expect client retention and revenue retention to remain strong. It's strong and we expect that to occur during the balance of the year. We're seeing a little bit more increase in unit and unit churn on the low end, that's to be expected given the mix of the client base over the last couple of years, but it's coupled with very strong client retention, so higher value clients we're retaining, which is what we want to do.

傑森，推動這一切的關鍵在於──讓我挑出幾個例子，說說我們的優勢和不足之處。顯然，我們預期客戶留存率和收入留存率將保持強勁。目前來看，這兩項指標都很強勁，我們預計這種情況將在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。我們看到低端客戶的數量和流失率略有上升，考慮到過去幾年客戶群的組成，這是意料之中的。但同時，客戶留存率非常高，我們留住了更多高價值客戶，這正是我們所希望看到的。

On the checks question, that's a good one because in the first half, we saw good checks per payroll or pays per control growth in the first half. We don't expect it to be that strong in the back half of the year. So we expect that it moderates as we get into the second half of the year partly compares partly simply because of the amount of growth that we saw last year. So that -- but it still will be a positive contributor.

關於支票發放的問題，這是一個很好的切入點，因為上半年我們看到每份工資單的支票發放量或每份控制項的工資發放量都實現了良好的增長。我們預計下半年不會保持如此強勁的勢頭。因此，我們預期隨著下半年的到來，支票發放量會有所放緩，部分原因是與去年同期相比有所下降，部分原因僅僅是因為去年同期成長幅度較大。所以，支票發放量仍然會是一個正面的貢獻因素。

We think that ERTC will still be a factor in the back half of the year, although I called it out Management Solutions that's moderating. It just won't moderate quite as much as we proceed it to be. And then we consider the demand environment to still be positive and obviously think that sales will remain positive we go through the year. So that's a little bit more color on each of those.

我們認為，儘管管理解決方案方面的影響有所緩和，但ERTC在下半年仍將是一個影響因素。只是緩和的程度不會像我們預期的那麼大。此外，我們認為市場需求環境依然樂觀，並且顯然預期全年銷售額將保持成長。以上是對上述各項因素的更詳細分析。

Yes. And Jason, I would probably add to that. I mean we continue to see the demand for our HR solutions, both ASO and PEO. We like the demand, what we're seeing an increase in worksite employees and the retention in those has been very -- I mean, historic record high when you look at our HR outsourcing businesses, both of them at record highs. So we've had solid revenue retention across -- at the macro level. And then when you look at what's going on in the HR area, very, very positive results, and that's certainly helping us as well.

是的。傑森，我可能還要補充一點。我的意思是，我們持續看到市場對我們人力資源解決方案的需求，包括ASO和PEO。我們很樂意見到這種需求，我們看到現場員工數量增加，而且員工留存率也創下了歷史新高——我的意思是，就我們的人力資源外包業務而言，兩項業務都達到了歷史最高水平。因此，從宏觀層面來看，我們的收入保持穩定。此外，從人力資源領域的情況來看，也取得了非常正面的成果，這無疑對我們大有裨益。

Okay. Understood. My next question is just on the -- coming back to the insurance side of things. I mean, you talked about -- you talked about some macroeconomic effects that you think are causing that business to be a little softer than you would have anticipated. But are there any execution issues you feel you need to take a look at or anything that could border on structural challenge vis-a-vis cyclical? Just wanted to see if we can unpack that a little more?

好的，明白了。我的下一個問題是關於保險業務的。您剛才提到了一些宏觀經濟因素，您認為這些因素導致保險業務比預期略顯疲軟。但是，您覺得在執行層面上是否存在需要關注的問題，或者是否存在任何可能構成結構性挑戰而非週期性挑戰的因素？我想看看我們能否更深入地探討一下這個問題。

Yes. Well, Jason, let's talk a little bit because we've talked about the agency a little bit. I mean P&C has been a continued product. Again, remember, most of our P&C business is workers' comp, a vast majority of it to new start-up businesses. And that's been a very soft market for a period of time. So certainly, that has continued to be a drag and that has not turned around. I think when you look at the H&B side, which has been a little bit more impacted up and down as you went through this pandemic. It's what I kind of say, you have a little slower new business starts, so people -- less people we're talking to, and then you have the economic pressure of adding a benefit at that cost both from an employer and employee side.

是的。傑森，我們來聊聊吧，因為我們之前已經稍微談過公司的狀況了。我的意思是，財產險業務一直持續發展。再次強調，我們的財產險業務大部分是工傷賠償，其中絕大多數是為新成立的公司提供的。而工傷賠償市場已經持續疲軟了一段時間。所以，這無疑一直拖累著我們的業務，而且這種情況還沒好轉。我認為，如果你看看健康與福利方面，你會發現它在疫情期間受到的影響更大，起伏不定。正如我之前所說，新業務的啟動速度有所放緩，所以我們接觸的客戶也減少了，而且雇主和僱員雙方都面臨著增加福利所帶來的經濟壓力。

So I don't think there's anything terribly structurally. Now one of the things we're certainly doing is we're trying to make adjustments to our approach both in terms of driving more digital engagement on the P&C side. We're also doing a lot more going back to current clients on the H&B side, where we think we may have more success in converting them from existing benefit programs. And we're going to continue to look at expanding our insurance product portfolio to meet the demands of the marketplace with some things that may be more economical.

所以我覺得結構上沒什麼大問題。目前我們正在做的一件事是調整策略，一方面要推動財產險和意外險業務的數位化互動，另一方面要更加重視健康保險和福利險的現有客戶，我們認為在轉化現有福利計劃方面可能更容易成功。此外，我們將繼續拓展保險產品組合，以滿足市場需求，並推出一些更經濟實惠的產品。

But I don't think there's anything major that we have those, but -- but again, this is really a continued sluggishness with P&C and then this kind of lack of attachment and lack of participation in H&B.

但我認為我們並沒有遇到什麼重大問題，但是——但是再說一遍，這確實是財產和意外傷害方面持續的緩慢進展，以及健康與福利方面缺乏歸屬感和參與度的問題。

We'll take our next question from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

接下來，我們將回答來自瑞士信貸的凱文麥克維提出的問題。

Happy holidays. And John, congratulations on the first call. Your (inaudible) call. I wanted to go into the puts and takes on the guidance a little bit. I mean, there's been a pretty sizable step-up in float, which is pretty profitable. And then the swing factor on the other income is pretty profitable, too. But we're kind of holding the EBITDA and I know the other income is below the line, but the floats above, is there anything offsetting that, Efrain? Or is that a little conservatism? Just -- because it seems like you're overperforming in some of the more profitable parts of the business as opposed to not and it doesn't seem like that's flowing through. So is there anything I'm missing there or just not thinking about that right?

節日快樂。約翰，恭喜你第一次成功接通電話。你的（聽不清楚）電話。我想稍微談談你對業績指引的看法。我的意思是，流通股數量大幅增長，這非常有利可圖。其他收入的波動因素也相當有利可圖。但我們目前對 EBITDA 的預期比較保守，我知道其他收入低於預期，但流通股數高於預期，埃弗雷恩，有什麼因素可以抵消這些影響嗎？或者說，這有點太保守了？因為看起來你們在一些獲利能力較強的業務領域表現出色，而不是表現不佳，但這種優勢似乎並沒有反映出來。所以，是不是我忽略了什麼，還是我沒有考慮到這一點？

No, no, not really, Kevin. I mean I think when you do the arithmetic, what you end up and the color that I gave you was that we saw ourselves more towards the top of the range. So there is flow through on that revenue. And in the back half of the year, we don't assume that 100% floats through. We look at the year position ourselves also to anticipate potential spending going into '24. We may end up outperforming that number, but at this point, we do always approach with an element of caution and conservatism as we go through the year.

不，不，其實不是這樣的，凱文。我的意思是，我覺得你算賬，最後得出的結果，就像我剛才給你看的顏色一樣，表明我們更接近預期範圍的上限。所以這部分收入會持續下去。而且在下半年，我們不會假設所有收入都能100%持續下去。我們也會自行評估全年的業績，預測2024年的潛在支出。我們最終可能會超過這個數字，但目前，我們全年都會保持謹慎和保守的態度。

That makes a lot of sense. And then can you remind us, Efrain, just what Fed funds is in that $100 million, $110 million in terms of from a Fed plan perspective?

這很有道理。那麼，埃弗雷恩，你能否提醒我們一下，從聯準會的計畫角度來看，這1億美元、1.1億美元中的聯邦基金具體指的是什麼？

We assume we're going to end up close to where the Fed is around a 5% terminal rate as we get into the spring. The -- I just caution that you can't simply take the portfolio and put that rate in because it will depend on what the balance between short term and long term is. And I've been saying throughout the year that what I want to do is position the portfolio. So we don't -- so if we're in a situation where the Fed decides to raise and then suddenly sharply cut, we're a little bit more protected than we were during the last cycle when the same thing occurred. So -- but obviously, we're flowing that through the P&L.

我們預計到春季時，利率最終會接近聯準會設定的5%左右的水平。但我必須提醒大家，不能簡單地將這個利率套入投資組合，因為這取決於短期和長期收益之間的平衡。我今年一直在強調，我希望做的是調整投資組合的配置。所以，即使聯準會決定升息後又突然大幅降息，我們也能比上個週期遇到同樣情況時更有保障。當然，我們最終還是會把這些因素反映在損益表中。

Our next question comes from Samad Samana with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的薩馬德·薩馬納。

Maybe just on the record sales performance. I guess, can you comment on bookings activity, both in aggregate and then maybe the linearity of the quarter and what you're seeing as we get closer towards the end of the year and as your clients adjust to maybe the changing macroeconomic environment.

或許僅就銷售業績而言。我想，您能否談談預訂情況，包括總體情況，以及本季度的線性增長情況，還有隨著年底臨近以及客戶可能正在適應不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境，您觀察到的情況？

Yes. So we -- look, we continue to see very strong demand for our products and services. As I said, continue on the HR side, continue to see strength there. All of our digital products. We're not seeing a lot of change in the competitive landscape at this point at all. Again, we continue to find our clients are really struggling with dealing with inflation. And certainly, our technology solutions are making them more efficient. So we've got a definitely efficiency play there. We're also helping them with the ERTC Again, remember, I think our average is over $150,000 per client that we're helping them. We've helped 50,000 clients, and that's become a big economic help to them. That's helping us.

是的。所以，我們——你看，我們持續看到市場對我們產品和服務的強勁需求。正如我所說，人力資源方面，需求依然強勁。我們所有的數位化產品也是如此。目前，我們並沒有看到競爭格局有太大變化。此外，我們發現客戶在應對通貨膨脹方面仍面臨嚴峻挑戰。當然，我們的技術解決方案確實提高了他們的效率。因此，我們在提高效率方面確實發揮了重要作用。我們也正在幫他們申請員工稅收抵免（ERTC）。請記住，我認為我們平均每個客戶獲得的幫助超過15萬美元。我們已經幫助了5萬家客戶，這對他們來說是一筆龐大的經濟收入。這對我們也大有裨益。

We continue to see strength in the 401(K) business as well as an attachment, a critical benefit that people want to have, their state mandates and that's becoming very popular as well. I mentioned time and attendance and all of our online services, this comprehensive group of online digital experiences that we're rolling out from recruiting. All of those are really resonating with the problems that small businesses are having.

我們持續看到401(K)業務的強勁勢頭，同時，一項人們非常希望擁有的重要福利——州政府強制規定的福利——也越來越受歡迎。我之前提到過考勤系統和我們所有的線上服務，包括我們正在從招募環節開始推出的這套全面的線上數位體驗。所有這些都與小型企業面臨的問題產生了強烈的共鳴。

Samad, so to your question -- by the way, I think you had me stumped there for a second as to the linearity of it. Here's my answer to that and you can tell me if I answered it correctly. So if I look at first half sales bookings growth, it was certainly solid -- strong. And you have to go back to how are we comparing now on the 2-year stack prepandemic, and we compare favorably certainly to that period of time. But the question for this business is, as everyone on the call knows, Q3 is a really important quarter, our most important quarter.

薩馬德，關於你的問題——順便說一句，你剛才關於線性增長的問題確實讓我有點摸不著頭腦。這是我的回答，你可以告訴我我的回答是否正確。如果我看一下上半年的銷售訂單成長，那確實非常穩健——強勁。你還得回顧我們現在與疫情前兩年的數據對比，我們現在的表現肯定比那段時間好。但對於我們這個業務來說，正如所有與會者都知道的那樣，第三季度是一個非常重要的季度，也是我們最重要的季度。

So generally, when we line up strong in the first half, we end up strong in the second half. When we start to wobble a little bit in the first half, then it will get a little bit tougher in the second half. I think to John's point, we're well positioned for the selling season. The only caveat I would have is that we have to get through the selling season to see how we come out to really kind of get a sense of where the year was by the time third quarter has rolled through, we're pretty much -- we pretty much know where we are for the year. So I think we're lined up well. I think the numbers would suggest that, and we're in the middle of it and we'll report out more in the third quarter.

所以總的來說，如果我們上半年表現強勁，下半年也能保持強勁勢頭。如果上半年稍有波動，下半年就會比較艱難。我認為約翰的觀點是正確的，我們已經為銷售旺季做好了充分準備。我唯一要補充的是，我們需要經歷整個銷售旺季才能真正了解全年的表現。到第三季結束時，我們基本上就能對全年的業績有一個大致的了解。所以我認為我們準備充分。我認為各項數據也印證了這一點，而且我們正處於銷售旺季的中期，第三季我們會發布更多報告。

That's the color I was looking for, Efrain. And then maybe just, I guess, a follow-up on your own. I think that's about what your customers are doing. Just -- and you said that you're at the expected staffing levels. How are you thinking about your own maybe hiring going forward in the sales and marketing organization? How are you guys planning for based on the assumptions you made in your own guidance as well?

埃弗雷恩，這就是我想要的顏色。然後，我想再補充一點關於你自己的情況。我覺得這和你的客戶正在做的事情差不多。你說過你們的人員配置達到了預期水準。那麼，你打算如何規劃未來在銷售和市場部門的招募呢？根據你們在指導意見中所做的假設，你們又是如何制定計畫的呢？

Yes. As we said, we're fully staffed, both in sales and service going in to the selling season, which is exactly where we want to be given the demand that we're seeing. And we're going to continue to monitor that. We're being very cautious in adding above that at this point in time. I would say we do see some opportunities for investment as Efrain said, and we will make those investments in the selling season if we see the opportunity to promote certain products and services that we think are resonating in the market. So we're holding back to be able to do that.

是的。正如我們所說，銷售和服務部門的人員配備已經全部到位，迎接銷售旺季的到來，這正是我們根據目前市場需求所期望的。我們會持續關注市場動態。現階段，我們對進一步擴充人員持非常謹慎的態度。正如埃弗雷恩所說，我們確實看到了一些投資機會，如果在銷售旺季期間，我們認為某些產品和服務能夠引起市場共鳴，並有機會進行推廣，我們將進行相應的投資。因此，我們目前暫緩擴充人員是為了把握這些機會。

If we see some sort of change, we know what the levers are. As we've said, we're the best operators in the business. We're going to continue to do that. We've got our hands on the leverage, but we're not pulling them at this point because we're just not seeing that decrease in the demand that would merit that.

如果出現某種變化，我們知道該如何應對。正如我們所說，我們是業內最優秀的經營者。我們將繼續保持這種優勢。我們掌握著應對的籌碼，但目前我們不會動用它們，因為我們還沒有看到足以促使我們採取行動的需求下降。

Great. Wishing you and your family a great holiday season.

太好了。祝您和您的家人假期愉快。

Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Just thoughts on pricing, how it's taking. I know, John, you said the competitive environment isn't changing. So I'm wondering how your customers have reacted to the most recent price increases that you had to put in?

關於定價，我有一些想法，想問大家的回饋。我知道，約翰，你說過競爭環境沒有改變。所以我很想知道，你最近不得不提價，你的客戶對此有何反應？

Well, Kartik, I would say our average revenue per client is double digits. It's above even any of the pricing levels, and that's really driven by the value we're providing. And we've already talked about it, the attachment, the upgrading we're doing from the HCM to the HR solutions, the attachment we're seeing from our digital experiences that we're adding. So from a revenue per customer as well as a revenue per new sold customer, we actually are doing very, very well there. So I think it demonstrates the value and I think it demonstrates the pricing power that we have.

卡爾蒂克，我想說我們每位客戶的平均收入是兩位數。這甚至高於任何定價級別，這完全歸功於我們提供的價值。我們之前也討論過，從HCM到HR解決方案的升級，以及我們不斷增加的數位化體驗所帶來的附加價值。因此，無論是從每位客戶的收入，還是從每位新客戶的收入來看，我們都非常出色。我認為這充分體現了我們的價值，也展現了我們的定價優勢。

And then just looking at the balance sheet. Obviously, the balance sheet is in great shape. And if the economy slows and maybe valuations come down, just your thoughts on maybe buying back stock versus M&A opportunities? What makes more sense for Paychex?

然後我們再看一下資產負債表。顯然，資產負債表狀況良好。如果經濟放緩，估值可能下降，您認為回購股票還是進行併購比較合適？對Paychex來說，哪種方式比較明智？

I don't think anything has changed, Kartik, in the sense that if the right opportunities for M&A came along, we would obviously be constructive on those opportunities. We have a range of opportunities in the funnel that we're looking at. And sometimes we see opportunities that may be worth going after more aggressively. At this point, I think that we have the normal set of opportunities that we have in the funnel.

卡爾蒂克，我認為情況並沒有改變。如果出現合適的併購機會，我們當然會積極把握。我們目前正在考察一系列潛在機會。有時，我們會發現一些值得更積極爭取的機會。就目前而言，我認為我們考察的潛在機會與往常並無二致。

With respect to buying back shares, I don't think we've changed our outlook in terms of at this point, buying back based on our desire to combat pollution. So I don't think a lot has changed in that sense. I do think the environment and John can also talk to this, but the environment looks more productive for doing both tuck-in acquisitions and a little bit larger scale M&A. And we're very interested in doing that.

關於股票回購，我認為目前我們出於應對污染的考慮，股票回購的政策方向並沒有改變。所以，從這個角度來看，我認為並沒有太大的改變。環境因素，以及約翰（John）對此的看法，都表明，在當前環境下，無論是小規模收購還是稍大規模的併購，都更具成效。而我們也對此非常感興趣。

Yes. I think to add on to that, Kartik. Look, I think the market is changing for sure. We've always, I think, had a very similar position. The position has not changed. I think the opportunities are changing, meaning they're presenting themselves a more reasonable valuations. We always are, I think, known to be very conservative and good allocators of capital. And it's not that we've not been interested in doing M&A or going after some technology bolt-ons, but the valuations have just been unreasonable for us to be able to cross that barrier. And at least what we're seeing is we're starting to see some moderation there. And we're going to continue to be as active as we have been in the past. And hopefully, we can get to a point where the market valuations match what we think is a reasonable amount to pay for some of these businesses that we're interested in.

是的。我想補充一點，Kartik。你看，我認為市場肯定在改變。我們一直以來的立場都差不多，立場沒有改變。我認為機會在變化，也就是說，它們的估值更合理了。我們一直以非常保守和優秀的資本配置而聞名。這並不是說我們對併購或收購一些科技型企業不感興趣，而是估值一直過高，讓我們難以跨越這道障礙。至少我們現在看到，估值開始回落。我們將繼續保持以往的積極性。希望市場估值能達到我們認為合理的水平，從而讓我們能夠收購一些我們感興趣的企業。

Our next question comes from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的布萊恩·基恩。

Just thinking about wage and wage inflation or just inflation in general. What's the direct effect for Paychex? Is it less attachment, less spending from the client that you'll end up seeing?

我只是在思考薪資和薪資通膨，或者更廣泛地說，是通貨膨脹。這對Paychex會有什麼直接影響？最終會導致客戶忠誠度下降，消費減少嗎？

Well, so let's talk about wage inflation. First of all, I'd probably tell you that we have wage inflation, but it's been moderating. If you look at our Paychex IHS index we've been steady for the last 3 months at about 5%. And that's actually kind of moderated a little bit from the increases we were seeing before. When you think about the wages in certain parts of our business and certain pricing models in the PEO in particular, some of our pricing is based on a percentage of wage, similar to what's in the industry. So that can have some uplift. But in general, the wage rate does not have a big impact on our revenue.

好的，我們來談談薪資通膨。首先，我可能會說我們確實有薪資通膨，但成長率已經放緩。如果你看一下我們的Paychex IHS指數，過去三個月一直穩定在5%左右。實際上，這比我們之前看到的漲幅有所下降。考慮到我們業務某些部門的工資水平，特別是PEO（專業雇主組織）的某些定價模式，我們的一些定價是基於工資的百分比，這與行業慣例類似。因此，工資上漲可能會帶來一些影響。但總的來說，薪資水平對我們的收入影響不大。

And it typically doesn't have a big impact on their appetite to buy attachments or spend more with you guys?

而且這通常不會對他們購買配件或在你們這裡消費的意願產生太大影響？

Not really. I don't see that. I have never seen that analysis that would indicate that. The one thing I would probably say, look, the number of employees, worksite employees is the key driver in our HR businesses, checks in the payroll side of the business, the more people that are employed, the more people that are getting checks, the better. One of the things that I would tell you is that we're seeing in terms of the impact of inflation on employees is they're now working more hours. That's one component that we see.

不完全是這樣。我沒看到這種情況。我從未見過任何分析表明這一點。我想說的是，員工人數，尤其是工作場所的員工人數，是我們人力資源業務的關鍵驅動因素，它關係到薪資發放。員工越多，領取薪水的人就越多，情況就越好。我想告訴大家的是，我們看到通貨膨脹對員工的影響之一是，他們的工作時間更長了。這是我們觀察到的一個面向。

A recent survey of the American Association Staffing actually found is 58% of adults are looking at potentially adding a second job. We are beginning to see people getting checks at 2 different places within the client base, as you can imagine, that's a check as a check. And so again, if you see that type of -- where people are going and working more, working in more places, getting more checks, that's positive for our business.

美國人力資源協會最近的一項調查發現，58%的成年人正在考慮增加第二份工作。正如您所想，我們開始看到一些人在客戶群中的兩個不同地方領取工資，這本身就是一種收入來源。因此，如果您看到這種情況——人們從事更多工作，在更多地方工作，領取更多收入——這對我們的業務來說是積極的。

Got it. No, that's helpful. And then obviously, as you guys talked about the key selling season is happening over the next few months. What are your guys' expectations for new client growth? Is it -- I always think about 2% to 4%. Is it high end, low end of that as you head into the season?

明白了。這很有幫助。然後，正如你們所說，接下來的幾個月是銷售旺季。你們對新客戶成長的預期是多少？我通常認為成長幅度在2%到4%之間。你們的預期是高還是低？

Well, so Bryan, I think typically, we say 1% to 3%. We will see where we come out of the range there. We expect it to be a good season. I think that's about as much what I can say as we're in the midst of it.

嗯，布萊恩，我想通常來說，我們估計的是1%到3%。我們會看看最終結果會超出這個範圍多少。我們預計這將是一個不錯的賽季。我想，鑑於賽季還在進行中，我目前能說的也就這麼多了。

Our next question comes from Eugene Simuni with MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 公司的 Eugene Simuni。

Eugene. That was a good (inaudible) of your last night.

尤金，你昨晚表現得真不錯（聽不清楚）。

It's not an easy one. So I always appreciate a good try of it. I wanted to come back to the PEO insurance for a second, if you don't mind. A lot of questions have been answered on the insurance side of things. But I wanted to just double-click on the PEO specifically. So putting the agency aside and even putting the issues with the insurance attachment aside, which we've talked about. Can you just comment explicitly on what you're seeing in the barebones PEO business, literally PEO works at (inaudible) your bookings trend there? I think that would be very helpful.

這確實不容易。所以我一直很欣賞大家的認真嘗試。如果您不介意的話，我想再談談PEO保險。關於保險方面，很多問題都已經得到了解答。但我只想具體談談PEO本身。所以，先不談代理機構，甚至不談我們之前討論過的保險附加問題。您能否具體談談您在最基本的PEO業務中觀察到的情況，例如PEO在（聽不清楚）的預訂趨勢？我認為這會非常有幫助。

Yes. So I'll let John talk to sales, but I think that's a great question. And I just want to take a second to kind of, as you said, double click on the PEO and the elements of revenue that affect revenue growth there. So if everyone on the call knows the first thing that revenue in insurance in the PEO is primarily derived from the State of Florida on the health care side. Workers' comp is different, but on the health care side. So it's a big number, but it's primarily going to be influenced by Florida.

是的。我會讓約翰跟銷售部門談談，但我認為這是一個很好的問題。我想花一點時間，正如你所說，詳細講解一下PEO（專業雇主組織）以及影響其收入成長的因素。首先，我想讓所有與會者都明白，PEO的保險收入主要來自佛羅裡達州的醫療保健收入。工傷賠償的情況有所不同，但也屬於醫療保健範疇。雖然工傷賠償佔比很大，但主要還是受佛羅裡達州的影響。

To John's point, we anecdotally saw some interesting things in the first half of the year where we had people, who have insurance stayed with the PEO, but decided they didn't want insurance. And it was a little bit of an unusual situation. We didn't call out specific characteristics of the state of Florida in the first half of the year because, frankly, don't want to pile on that excuse as to what happened there, but Florida had an unusual idiosyncratic period in the first half of the year. Long story short, the level of attachment that we expected to see in that state in particular, didn't materialize.

正如約翰所說，我們確實在上半年觀察到一些有趣的現象：有些客戶雖然購買了保險，但最終決定不再購買保險。這種情況確實有些特殊。我們沒有特別指出佛羅裡達州上半年的具體情況，坦白說，我們不想把佛羅裡達州的情況歸咎於此，但佛羅裡達州上半年的確經歷了一段特殊的時期。簡而言之，我們原本預期在州內看到的客戶忠誠度並沒有出現。

As I looked at it and we looked at it, we said what makes sense? Well, we don't expect, we expect the second half revenue in PEO will be stronger than the first half. But we're a little cautious based on what we're seeing with respect to insurance attachment. And so that's why we had an abundance of caution. We lowered the range for revenue on PEO in the second half. I think it's really important, all of that is the punch line to make this point has no impact on margins or on net income.

我們仔細分析後認為，什麼是合理的？我們預計下半年PEO業務的收入會高於上半年。但考慮到保險附加業務的情況，我們持謹慎態度。因此，我們下調了下半年PEO業務的營收預期。我認為，所有這些最終目的都是為了說明這一點，即不會對利潤率或淨收入產生任何影響。

So we could easily have 5% or 6% PEO growth and have 8% or 9% depending on the mix of revenue, insurance versus admin that wouldn't have any impact on margins. So that's largely driven by softness on that side of the business, and I could be reporting, and we could be reporting them in the fourth quarter. We had a really sharp spike in insurance attachment. That's the reason we manage the business the way we do. We're not expecting to make money out of there. Obviously, we'd like it to be a bit higher than it is.

因此，我們的PEO業務很容易實現5%或6%的成長，甚至可能達到8%或9%，這取決於收入組成，以及保險和管理費用的比例，而這不會對利潤率產生任何影響。這主要是由於該業務板塊的疲軟所致，我可能會在第四季度報告，我們也可能在第四季度報告。我們的保險附加費出現了非常明顯的激增。這就是我們目前管理這項業務的原因。我們並不指望從中獲利。當然，我們希望它能更高一些。

But I think it's really important to remember that worksite employees, that's an important point. What we're seeing is we're seeing solid growth of worksite employees and PEO in the PEO business, which is one thing that encourages me in terms of the back half of the year. So we're not seeing softness in terms of worksite employees, and that's really the driver of profitability in the business. You don't have the work sites, you're not going to have it.

但我認為，務工人員至關重要，這一點非常重要。我們看到，務工人員和PEO業務都在穩步成長，這讓我對下半年的前景感到鼓舞。因此，我們並未看到勞工需求疲軟，而這正是業務獲利的真正驅動力。沒有務工人員，就沒有獲利。

So it's a little bit digging in, you asked the right question. When you look at it, it really -- the fundamentals beneath the issue of insurance looks solid. I'll let John talk to what's happening on the sales side.

所以這需要深入探討一下，你問對了問題。仔細分析一下，保險的基本面確實很穩固。銷售方面的情況就交給約翰來說吧。

Yes. No. Look, our deference point, this insurance attachment thing is localized to Florida. Our attachment rate in the PEO for our clients in Texas has no impact on our revenue at all. And so the fact that it does in Florida has an impact. But look, I think the PEO value proposition is still strong. It's still very solid. You look at evidence of that. I look at our revenue retention and our retention of clients there is at near record levels, very strong. We continue to see a strong worksite employee growth.

是的，也不完全是。你看，我們這裡要強調的是，這個保險附加問題僅限於佛羅裡達州。我們在德克薩斯州為客戶提供的專業雇主組織 (PEO) 服務，其附加率對我們的收入沒有任何影響。所以，它在佛羅裡達州的影響就產生了。但是，我認為 PEO 的價值主張依然強勁，依然非常穩固。你可以看看相關的證據。我們的營收留存率和客戶留存率都接近歷史最高水平，非常強勁。我們持續看到工作場所員工數量的強勁成長。

And so again, I feel really good about where we are, a position. We're fully staffed there. We're into the selling season. and very confident that we have the right products and services for that market. So again, if dynamics in the market change, I would expect those are going to impact others just like they impact us.

所以，我對我們目前的狀況非常滿意。我們人員配備齊全，正值銷售旺季，我們非常有信心擁有適合該市場的產品和服務。因此，如果市場動態發生變化，我預計這些變化也會像影響我們一樣影響到其他人。

Got it. Got it. Well, very comprehensive double-click, very helpful. And then for my follow-up, actually, I wanted to ask on the kind of HR management side of things. On a competitive landscape, I was curious if you can provide your thoughts on any competitive pressure you're seeing from the trend of embedding payroll into software solutions? So we're seeing, obviously, a lot of the payments providers, software providers looking to expand their offerings with other business modules, if you will, and payroll as always at the top of the list. They talk a lot about that. I was curious from you guys side, how successful do you think those efforts are? And are you seeing any competitive pressure?

明白了，明白了。非常全面的雙擊操作，很有幫助。接下來，我想問人力資源管理方面的問題。在競爭格局方面，我很好奇您如何看待將薪資管理嵌入軟體解決方案的趨勢所帶來的競爭壓力？顯然，我們看到許多支付服務提供者和軟體供應商都在尋求擴展其產品，添加其他業務模組，而薪資管理模組始終是重中之重。他們對此談論頗多。我想從您的角度來看，您認為這些努力取得了多大的成功？您是否感受到了任何競爭壓力？

I would say that I've not seen a dramatic change in anything and not seeing any type of new entrants that are worrisome in terms of what I think about our growth. I think -- probably the other point I would make is that one of the things I think we will -- it will be interesting to see as we go into the selling season is some of the upstart competitors, who don't need to necessarily make money, whether or not they'll still be able to approach the market and marketing spend, et cetera, in the same way they have in the past. So we've already seen, I think, some of that dialing back. So not that I'm seeing in any of the data that I see that I'm seeing them having an impact.

我認為，就我目前所見，沒有任何劇烈的變化，也沒有看到任何令我擔憂的新進入者影響到我們的成長。我想說的另一點是，隨著銷售旺季的到來，一些新興競爭對手——他們不一定需要獲利——是否還能像過去那樣開拓市場、投入行銷資金等等，這將非常值得關注。我認為我們已經看到一些競爭對手開始縮減投入。所以，就我目前所掌握的數據來看，他們並沒有對市場產生任何影響。

And Eugene, I'd go back probably 3, 4 years ago and one of the fintech providers embedded payroll and our stock traded down, I don't know, like 3% in the day, and I was getting calls about why and said that, such and such as an embedded solution on payroll. I think -- look, the surest way to stumble is to act arrogant, and we're not arrogant about those folks we've looked at, by the way, some of the people that you cover and think there's an opportunity in the market for those solutions. They're just not a dramatic impact.

尤金，我得說，大概三、四年前，一家金融科技公司推出了嵌入式薪資管理系統，結果我們的股票當天下跌了大概3%，我接到很多電話詢問原因。我就解釋說，是因為某某公司推出了嵌入式薪資解決方案。我覺得——要知道，最容易出問題的就是傲慢自大，而我們對那些我們考察過的公司——順便說一句，也包括你報道過的一些公司——並沒有傲慢自大，我們認為這些解決方案在市場上確實存在機會。只是它們不會產生巨大的影響。

We've never seen a dramatic impact on us because the other thing you need to think about -- the other thing to consider there, too, is depending on what part of the market you're addressing there -- especially in the low end, there's a benefit to having some level of service attached to payroll, not obviously in the enterprise space or in the upper mid -- upper end of the market. And that ability for simple payroll, we've got that pretty much covered with our payroll.

我們從未感受到任何重大影響，因為還有一點需要考慮——或者說，另一點需要考慮的是，這取決於你面向的是哪個細分市場——尤其是在低端市場，將一定程度的服務與薪資管理相結合是有益的，這在企業級市場或中高端市場則不明顯。而對於簡單的薪資管理，我們的薪資管理系統基本上已經滿足了需求。

We'll take our next question from Peter Christiansen with Citi.

接下來，我們將回答花旗銀行的彼得‧克里斯蒂安森提出的問題。

Welcome, John, and happy holidays to all. And front, I want to ask a question, but you called out working capital as a benefit this quarter. Wondering if that's indicative of changing activity with some of your staffing clients? And if that's a (inaudible) perhaps what's going on more macro-wise? And then I just had a quick follow-up.

歡迎約翰，祝大家節日快樂。首先，我想問一個問題，您提到本季營運資金是一項優勢。我想知道這是否表明您的一些人力資源客戶的業務活動發生了變化？如果是這樣，那麼從宏觀層面來看，又發生了什麼變化呢？我還有一個後續問題。

Well, great question, Pete. So the short answer to that is if you look at the first -- at the comparable period last year, the staffing business really rebounded significantly. And so we had a net use of working capital as the receivable balances grew. The staffing business continues to be pretty strong, staffing funding business, just so everyone call knows that's our Advance Partners business. But we're not -- we don't have the growth in receivables that we had last year.

問得好，皮特。簡單來說，如果你看去年同期的數據，人力資源業務確實出現了顯著反彈。因此，隨著應收帳款餘額的成長，我們的營運資金淨流入有所增加。人力資源業務，尤其是人力資源融資業務（需要說明的是，這是我們的Advance Partners業務），仍然表現強勁。但是，我們的應收帳款成長並沒有達到去年的水準。

So as a consequence from an unmet change in working capital perspective. We didn't have that use of funds. So that's really what's driving it. And just a quick advertorial on the staffing funding business. It's doing well and we're continuing to see growth in that part of both our business and the market as a whole.

因此，由於營運資金需求未被滿足，我們未能充分利用這筆資金。這才是真正的驅動因素。另外，簡單介紹一下我們的人力資源融資業務。這項業務發展良好，我們看到，無論是在我們公司還是整個市場，這部分業務都在持續成長。

That's helpful. And then I just want to follow -- dig a little bit deeper into the last question, particularly dealing directly with merchants on the merchant side. How are you -- are you guys pleased or wondering if you just qualify how things are going with channel sales? And I know you have a relationship with Clover, and I think you have some other channel distribution partners. Just if you could talk about the sales efficiency that you're seeing there? That would be helpful.

這很有幫助。接下來我想更深入探討最後一個問題，特別是關於與商家直接溝通的問題。你們對通路銷售的進度滿意嗎？或者你們是否還在評估？我知道你們與 Clover 有合作關係，而且我想你們還有其他通路配銷合作夥伴。能否談談你們在這些通路的銷售效率上看到的一些變化？這將非常有幫助。

Yes. I would say in our business development, we're continuing to add additional channels. It's still, I'd say, a small portion still when you look at where we're getting our clients is from our CPA partners, it's from our existing clients referring us. It's from digital marketing. And then we have a cadre of business development, we continue to add to them. So we continue to do that. I'd say I'm pleased, but I'm not saying that I see anything again, it goes back to my prior comments. I've not seen a major shift which says, "Oh, my goodness, this is a big emerging trend or emerging threat." They're incremental, they're helpful. There's obviously a segment of the market that looks for that type of integrated solution and as Efrain said, as their needs get more complex, what we tend to find is they migrate into one of our HCM solutions and are getting into our HR products.

是的。我想說，在業務拓展方面，我們一直在不斷增加新的通路。不過，目前我們客戶來源中，來自註冊會計師合作夥伴、現有客戶推薦和數位行銷的佔比仍然很小。此外，我們還有一支業務拓展團隊，也不斷擴充。所以我們一直在做這件事。我對目前的進展感到滿意，但我並沒有看到任何重大變化，這和我之前的觀點一致。我沒有看到任何重大轉變，例如「天哪，這是一個巨大的新興趨勢或潛在威脅」。這些變化是漸進式的，而且是有益的。顯然，有一部分市場在尋找這類整合解決方案，正如Efrain所說，隨著他們的需求變得越來越複雜，我們發現他們往往會遷移到我們的HCM解決方案，並開始使用我們的人力資源產品。

I know -- I don't know if that makes sense. If it's simple, if you're looking for something very simple and the integrated is important, the minute you have one of these modules that sort of add-on and then you get into complexity. That's where the service model kind of breaks down and you kind of see this unbundling start to occur. So there's a portion of the market that I think it makes sense for. We're continuing to look at that. But again, when we look up at particularly our HR businesses and where we're seeing the need for our digital offerings, not so much. I think it's less important to those clients.

我知道——我不知道這樣說是否合理。如果很簡單，如果你在尋找非常簡單的解決方案，而且整合性很重要，那麼一旦你添加了這些附加模組，複雜性就會隨之而來。這時服務模式就有點失效了，你會看到這個解綁模式開始出現。所以我認為，對於一部分市場來說，這種模式是有意義的。我們會繼續關注這部分市場。但是，當我們審視我們的人力資源業務，以及我們看到哪些客戶需要我們的數位化產品時，情況就沒那麼樂觀了。我認為對這些客戶來說，數位化產品的重要性相對較低。

We'll take our next question from James Faucette of Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將回答摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特提出的問題。

Great. And just a couple of follow-up questions for me. First on margins. It seems like we're pretty near peak levels right now. How should we think about the durability of these margin levels going forward? And particularly, a question we get a lot is if we were to see a recession, and revenue growth were to be impacted, what -- how should we anticipate that would impact margins? And what levers do you have to get us to the higher end of your margin outlook versus perhaps come back to the lower end?

好的。我還有幾個後續問題。首先是關於利潤率。目前看來，我們的利潤率已經接近高峰。我們該如何看待這些利潤率水準在未來能否持續？特別是，我們經常被問到的一個問題是，如果經濟衰退，收入成長受到影響，我們應該如何預測這會對利潤率產生什麼影響？你們有哪些措施可以幫助我們達到利潤率預期上限，而不是回落到下限？

Yes. Let me get to 2 ways and then I'll put it over to John. Look, I think, James, and we get the question on I think it's part of the transformation that the company has gone through over the last year, last, I would say, 5 years, in particular, especially post I'd remind everyone of the investments that we made post tax reform and that we delivered on. Our intent was to accelerate the transformation to look much more like a technology company than what we had been before, which was certainly a perfectly well-functioning tech services business, but more technology.

是的。我先說說兩種方法，然後把問題交給約翰。詹姆斯，我覺得，我們被問到這個問題，我認為這是公司過去一年，或者說過去五年，特別是稅改之後轉型的一部分。我想提醒大家，我們在稅改後所進行的投資，以及我們所取得的成果。我們的目標是加速轉型，使我們更像科技公司，而不是像以前那樣——當然，我們以前也是一家運作良好的科技服務公司，但更專注於科技。

So you hear a lot of what we say, but don't, I think, see the background of it as much. We deploy a lot of technology in the background. And I say this in many of the calls where today's tech service is tomorrow's technology delivered by a set of technology tools on the back end. And we feel really passionate about the ability to deliver service, but service delivered through state-of-the-art technology.

所以，你們常聽到我們說的話，但我覺得你們不太了解背後的原因。我們在後台部署了大量的技術。我在很多電話會議上都提到過，今天的技術服務就是明天的技術，它是由後端的一系列技術工具實現的。我們對提供服務的能力充滿熱情，但我們相信，服務必須透過最先進的技術來實現。

What's the point of all of that? The point of all of that is that if you can do that and if you can do it successfully, then you get margin expansion of the type that we have been driving. We think there's still a long road to go in terms of our ability to fully optimize and digitize everything that we're doing. And as a consequence, we challenge ourselves every year to look at a range of potential investments that can drive margin improvement balanced by investments that also drive revenue growth. So we're trying to play those off.

這一切的意義何在？意義在於，如果你能做到這一點，並且能夠成功做到，那麼你就能獲得我們一直在努力實現的利潤率成長。我們認為，在全面優化和數位化我們所做的一切方面，我們還有很長的路要走。因此，我們每年都會挑戰自己，審視一系列潛在的投資項目，這些項目既能推動利潤率提升，又能促進收入成長。所以我們正在努力兼顧這些方面。

And the short answer is, yes, I think if you were -- 5 years ago, if you said we'd hit 40%, and then we'd be talking about the potential to expand beyond 40%, look, I wouldn't have known that with precision that we were going to be there, but that's exactly where we're at. There may come a day where we say, "Hey, look, I don't think for the growth of the business, the level of investment we need to make in the business, we can really continue to leverage." But we're not at that point at this stage.

簡而言之，是的，我認為如果你五年前告訴我我們會達到40%的槓桿率，然後我們還會討論進一步擴大到40%以上的潛力，你看，我當時也無法精確預測我們最終會達到這個目標，但我們現在確實做到了。或許有一天我們會說：「嘿，考慮到業務成長所需的投資水平，我們真的不能再繼續利用槓桿了。」但我們目前還沒到那個階段。

I'll turn it over to John for comments.

接下來請約翰發表意見。

Yes. I think you covered -- I mean I've said from the start, we are known as the best operators in the business, and that's something I'm very proud of to have been part of. And it's in our DNA, and we're going to continue to do that. And I do think we have some macro opportunities, and that is the digital adoption that's happening in the marketplace is a benefit. Employees and employers don't want to talk to us anymore. They want to get on our 5-star app, and they want to be able to do it themselves whenever they want to do it. That adoption helps them and it helps us. It provides a better client experience. We're investing in that, looking for ways to drive efficiency there.

是的。我覺得你已經涵蓋了——我的意思是，我從一開始就說過，我們以業內最佳運營商而聞名，我為此感到非常自豪。這已經融入我們的基因，我們將繼續保持下去。而且我認為我們確實有一些宏觀機遇，那就是市場上的數位轉型是一項利好。員工和雇主不再想和我們溝通。他們想使用我們五星級的應用程序，並且希望隨時隨地都能自行操作。這種普及對他們有利，對我們也有好處。它能提供更好的顧客體驗。我們正在加大投入，尋找提高效率的方法。

So that macro adoption and then what we're doing in digitizing our back office is another opportunity at different points, but I think we're still -- we still have runway on and we're still continuing to invest in and push in and continue to move on. So I think there's plenty of opportunity for us to continue to look for ways to not only provide digital solutions to our clients, but also continue to digitize what we're doing in the back office. And that's an (inaudible) of the business. I mean you look at our digital sales, unbelievable growth in that mode of selling over the last decade and over the last 5 years as we've invested in that.

所以，宏觀層面的普及以及我們正在進行的後台數位轉型，在不同階段都是另一個機遇，但我認為我們仍然——我們還有發展空間，我們仍在持續投資、推進並不斷前進。因此，我認為我們有很多機會繼續尋找方法，不僅為客戶提供數位化解決方案，而且還繼續推動我們後台業務的數位轉型。這（聽不清楚）是業務的一部分。我的意思是，看看我們的數位化銷售，過去十年和過去五年，隨著我們對數位化銷售的投資，這種銷售模式實現了令人難以置信的成長。

We've launched a digital onboarding capability that will be fully operational for the low end of our market across the business starting in January. So looking forward to that test and learn. And we have several other test and learn investments coming out of our November strategy session that are all built around driving additional growth and driving further digital adoption across the business.

我們推出了數位化客戶註冊功能，將於明年一月起在公司低端市場全面投入使用。我們非常期待這項功能的測試和學習。此外，我們在十一月的策略會議上還提出了其他幾項測試和學習投資計劃，這些計劃都旨在推動業務成長，並進一步促進數位轉型。

That's helpful. And I guess a related question. I mean, it sounds like you guys are going into the selling season well staffed, and I know that has been a point of concern earlier. But I'm just on that topic and more broadly of service levels, I guess, are you seeing that as an indicator of just a little bit of a change in the hiring market generally?

這很有幫助。我想問一個相關的問題。我的意思是，聽起來你們的銷售旺季人手充足，我知道之前這確實是個問題。說到這個話題，以及更廣泛的服務水平，你們覺得這是否預示著整體招聘市場出現了一些變化？

And then on -- and as we dig into the efficiencies are the technology investments, et cetera, allowing you to increase the typical client count for an existing account manager? And how has that been trending? Just wondering about kind of the hiring environment for your own needs as well as points of efficiency that you're realizing right now?

然後，當我們深入探討效率提升時，技術投資等等是否能幫助您增加現有客戶經理的典型客戶數量？這方面的趨勢如何？我只是想了解一下貴公司目前的招募環境以及您正在實現的效率提升點？

Yes. I would say the hiring environment for us. I think like most people reporting has stabilized, much different than it was probably a year ago. When we were sitting here a year ago, we were not fully staffed to where we would like to be entering the selling season and the year-end season. And we sit here today, fully staffed, fully trained and prepared to execute going into that. So it's a much different hiring environment for us as well. And we are continuing to drive productivity as well.

是的。我想說，我們的招募環境已經穩定下來了，就像大多數同行一樣，這與一年前的情況截然不同。一年前，我們還沒有達到理想的銷售旺季和年末旺季的人員配置。而現在，我們人員充足，訓練到位，做好了充分的準備。所以，我們的招募環境也發生了很大的變化。同時，我們也持續提高生產力。

We'll take our next question from Mark Marcon with Baird.

接下來，我們將回答貝爾德的馬克馬爾孔提出的問題。

Happy holidays, John and Efrain. I just want to save you a little -- Efrain, I've got a little gift for you, just to save you some time on all your callbacks, because I'm getting this question a lot online. Can you just break out the PEO and insurance services that $273.3 million? Can you break it out between the agency component versus the PEO component?

約翰和埃弗雷恩，節日快樂！艾佛雷恩，我為你準備了一份小禮物，這樣你就能節省一些回訪的時間，因為我常在網路上被問到這個問題。你能把那2.733億美元的PEO和保險服務單獨列出來嗎？你能把其中的代理部分和PEO部分分開列出來嗎？

And then to break down what you ended up seeing in terms of the year-over-year change within those? And this is more than double clicking, but it will save you a lot of time. Just how much of an impact there was with regards to the change in terms of the uptake of the health insurance and the property and casually, the workers' comp?

然後，你能否詳細分析一下這些項目年比變化的具體情況？這需要點擊滑鼠多幾次，但能節省你很多時間。這些變化對健康保險、財產保險以及工傷賠償的投保率究竟產生了多大的影響？

Yes. So Mark, I would point all of the good investors, who are asking you those solid questions to a chart that we included at the beginning of this fiscal year/end of last fiscal year, which broke out PEO and insurance by percentages. So if you go there and look at that, you'll see the exact percentages and the percentages as of the end of the year really didn't change significantly in the first half of the year. So that's the first part.

是的。馬克，我會建議所有向你提出這些切實問題的優秀投資者參考我們在本財年初/上財年末發布的圖表，該圖表按百分比細分了專業雇主組織 (PEO) 和保險業務。如果你查看該圖表，你會看到具體的百分比，而且截至上半年，這些百分比實際上並沒有顯著變化。以上是第一部分。

The second part is roughly half and half is H&B and half -- I'm sorry, roughly half of the insurance revenue is H&B and the other half is P&C, as John said, but that's largely workers' comp insurance. And so I will only describe it qualitatively, which is to say that we're still seeing growth low single digits on -- I'm sorry, we're still seeing growth in H&B and on P&C. P&C itself workers' comp in the quarter was flat to down. So the impact of a really soft insurance market, which was different than it was 3, 4 years ago is weighing on that.

第二部分大致各佔一半——抱歉，大約一半的保險收入來自健康與福利保險，另一半來自財產與意外傷害保險，正如約翰所說，但後者主要包括工傷賠償保險。因此，我只能定性地描述一下，也就是說，我們仍然看到健康與福利保險和財產與意外傷害保險保持著個位數低成長。財產與意外保險本身在本季持平或下降。因此，與三、四年前不同的是，目前疲軟的保險市場對其造成了影響。

So in summary, that word, I'd say look at the end of the quarter -- end of the last fiscal year, I got a breakout on Management Solutions and also one PEO and insurance, it's there. You'll see what it is. And then you can say that in the insurance, roughly, it's half workers' comp and half H&B. We still see growth in H&B, and to John's point, that should grow as smaller clients become more constructive on buying insurance. Workers' comp is the one that's exerting a drag on that entire segment.

總而言之，關於這個詞，我想說的是，看看上個季度末——也就是上個財年末，我統計了管理解決方案、一家專業雇主組織（PEO）和保險業務的業績，都在那裡。你會明白的。然後你可以說，在保險業務方面，大致一半是工傷賠償，一半是健康與福利保險。我們仍然看到健康與福利保險業務的成長，正如約翰所說，隨著小型客戶在購買保險方面變得更加積極，這項業務應該會繼續成長。工傷賠償是拖累整個業務板塊成長的主要因素。

Got it. And if we strip out the insurance component, is the PEO business ex the insurance component still growing high single digits, low double digits?

明白了。如果我們剔除保險業務，PEO業務（不包括保險業務）的成長速度是否仍維持在個位數高點或兩位數低點？

I won't split it out that way, because it's a little bit tough with the value proposition, Mark. What I'd point to is what I said earlier in the call that we're getting good worksite employee growth, and that's kind of where we're focusing it. It's hard to strip it out that way because then you'd have to do a deep dive on what's happening in Florida versus other parts of the market. But when you look across the markets that we serve and look at worksite employee growth with -- and certainly in most of the major markets, we're seeing good worksite employee growth.

我不會那樣單獨分析，因為那會牽涉到價值主張，馬克。我想強調的是，正如我之前在電話會議中提到的，我們的員工人數成長良好，這也是我們工作的重點。那樣分析比較困難，因為那樣就需要深入研究佛羅裡達州與其他市場地區的情況。但是，縱觀我們服務的市場，尤其是在大多數主要市場，我們看到員工人數成長良好。

And what was -- I'm sorry, I'm sure you mentioned it before, it's in one of the releases, but what was the worksite employee growth?

還有——抱歉，我知道您之前肯定提到過，它在某個版本中提到過，但是工作場所員工成長情況如何？

We did not say that. And good try, though, Mark. We didn't say it. We'll report on it at the end of the year. What we did say and what John said is that we've had significant worksite employee growth, both in the ASO and PEO model, and we surpassed 2 million to 1 million employees. Remember, Mark, one other thing for everyone. We don't force a client into either the PEO or ASO, we're unlike a lot of other providers. So we say to a client, you can have either depending on what you value in the bundle. And so what we're seeing across both of those solutions is strong demand.

我們沒說過那樣的話。不過，馬克，你猜得不錯。我們確實沒說過。年底我們會公佈相關報告。我們和約翰都說過，無論是在ASO模式或PEO模式下，我們的員工人數都顯著成長，從200萬人增加到了100萬人。馬克，記住，還有一點要告訴大家。我們不會強迫客戶選擇PEO或ASO模式，我們和其他很多供應商不一樣。我們會告訴客戶，您可以根據自身需求選擇其中一種。目前我們看到，這兩種模式的需求都很強勁。

Great. And then on managed solutions, obviously, solid and better than expected, better than what we've modeled and better than what you've guided. But one question that I got from some investors is basically why did Management Solutions slow in Q2 relative to 1Q?

很好。託管解決方案方面，顯然表現穩健，超出預期，也優於我們先前的模型預測和你們的指導。但我收到一些投資者的提問，他們主要想知道為什麼第二季度託管解決方案的成長速度相對於第一季有所放緩？

Okay. That was a good question. I answered that one after first quarter. But the short answer to the question, Mark, I'd say, bucket it 3 ways. And the first thing is that significant growth in pace per control or checks per payroll in the quarter versus the prior quarter. That was one. The second part was that ERTC was a significant contributor in the quarter. It wasn't as great a contributor in the second quarter. In other words, it wasn't as large incremental growth. And then third was everything else, which was positive.

好的，這個問題問得好。我在第一季結束後就回答這個問題了。馬克，簡單來說，我會從三個方面來分析。首先，本季每筆控製或每筆薪資的支票發放速度較上一季有顯著成長。這是一方面。另一方面，員工留任稅收抵免（ERTC）在本季貢獻顯著。它在第二季的貢獻則相對較小。換句話說，它的增量成長不如第一季。第三點是其他所有方面，這些方面都是正面的。

Got it. Great. And then, John, you mentioned the really cool innovative tools during the last quarterly discussion, particularly the voice activated solution. I'm wondering if you can give us a sense for like for your most innovative tools, what sort of uptake are you currently seeing?

明白了，太好了。約翰，你在上個季度的討論中提到了一些非常酷炫的創新工具，特別是語音啟動解決方案。我想請你介紹一下你認為最具創新性的這些工具目前的市場接受度如何？

Well, I mentioned one where clients are having the issues, which is really on the hiring and onboarding is one. So if you look at that when we last reported, I mentioned that we had launched that product in beta and then announced it. At that point, we had 1.1 million -- I think 1.8 million, maybe employees that had actually been hired through that process. As I sit here today, we're -- we will approach 3 million people hired to that platform. So give you some idea of the use of that, how frequently that's being used, and that's very popular. The Retention Insights is another one that we've had very good uptake and utilization of and the impact, quite frankly, so getting good reviews there.

我剛才提到客戶遇到的一個問題，其實就是招募和入職流程的問題。上次我們報告的時候，我說我們已經推出了該產品的測試版，然後正式發布了。當時，透過這個流程招募的員工人數達到了110萬人——我想應該是180萬，甚至更多。而今天，透過這個平台招募的員工人數已經接近300萬人。這足以說明它的使用情況和使用頻率，它非常受歡迎。 「留存洞察」是另一個用戶接受度和使用率都很高的產品，坦白說，它的影響也非常好，我們收到了很多好評。

Yes. I was talking about the Google...

是的，我指的是Google…

(inaudible) right 401(k), the time and attendance, all of those other online traditional products doing well as well.

（聽不清楚）沒錯，401(k)計劃、考勤系統以及所有其他線上傳統產品也都做得很好。

Yes. I was referring to the Google voice activated solution.

是的，我指的是Google的語音啟動解決方案。

Yes, yes. So we launched that. It's -- we're just starting to launch that, and we're watching to see how customers adapt to it and utilize it.

是的，是的。所以我們推出了這項服務。我們才剛開始推出這項服務，正在觀察客戶如何適應和使用它。

Our last question will come from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

最後一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天進。

I just wanted to ask on the retention side. I know it's Record Retention has been doing really well. And I've been getting a lot of questions around SMB and retention, bankruptcy risk here going into possible recession? I know Efrain, you've shared this before. But can we revisit what it did in past down cycles. And I would imagine that you would do probably a little bit better. I think you always do a little better than people here, but I would think you would do better here given the shifts in the platform, the investments in tech. So -- but I just want to revisit that before we close out the year.

我只是想問一下關於用戶留存方面的問題。我知道Record Retention一直做得很好。我收到了很多關於中小企業用戶留存的問題，例如在可能的經濟衰退時期，是否有破產風險？我知道Efrain，你之前也提到過這一點。但我們能否回顧一下它在過去經濟低迷時期的表現？我想你們現在的表現應該會更好。我認為你們總是比這裡的人做得更好，但考慮到平台的變化和技術方面的投資，我認為你們現在的表現會更好。所以——在年底之前，我想再討論一下這個問題。

Yes. Yes. So I mean if you go back to '07, '08, '09, where the business was erupted, you would know this was roughly about 80% payroll and 20% HRS (inaudible) trough, I guess, depending on which side you're looking at, at about 77% retention on a unit basis. I don't know what the revenue retention was back then. But we were down to about 23% attrition. Now there were a lot of reasons why that's certainly a lower, lower, lower band, but not to mention the fact, Tien-Tsin, as everyone on the call knows that right now, if we just isolate pure what we would call payroll, that's less than half of what we sell. So the rest of the stuff when you attach in our model creates and generates better retention. So now you put yourself in a completely different position even in PEO.

是的。是的。我的意思是，如果你回顧一下 2007、2008、2009 年，也就是業務爆發的那幾年，你會發現當時大約 80% 是薪資支出，20% 是人力資源支出（聽不清楚）。我想，根據你從哪個角度來看，當時的單位留存率大約是 77%。我不知道當時的收入留存率是多少。但我們的流失率卻降到了 23% 左右。當然，有很多原因導致這個數字非常非常低，但更重要的是，天心，正如電話會議上的每個人都知道的那樣，如果我們只看工資支出，那還不到我們銷售額的一半。所以，把其他因素也納入我們的模式後，就能創造並帶來更高的留存率。因此，即使在 PEO（專業雇主組織）領域，你現在也處於一個完全不同的情況。

So I think the factors there dictate that you're going to have a very different outcome than you would have back in '07, '08, '09. One other point that I would add to that. I mentioned in the -- during my comments that we did see -- we are seeing more elevated churn in the micro segment than perhaps a year ago. There's a mix element to that, that's not -- if you want to understand and call me, it's not worth going into here. But from the -- and we anticipated that, by the way. But from a revenue retention standpoint, we still are very, very solid. And those are the clients that you're less likely to see churn in a downturn. So that's my long-winded answer to your question.

所以我認為，這些因素決定了你最終的結果會與 2007、2008、2009 年截然不同。還有一點我想補充。我在之前的演講中提到過，我們確實看到微型企業的客戶流失率比一年前有所上升。這其中有很多因素，如果你想了解更多，你可以打電話給我，這裡就不贅述了。但從收入留存率的角度來看，我們仍然非常穩固。這些客戶在經濟低迷時期流失的可能性較小。以上就是我對你問題的詳細回答。

And my quick follow-up. I know there's a lot of margin questions here. The overperformance in the first half, any priorities or what would you attribute or rank the big contributors to the margin overperforming here so far?

我還有一個後續問題。我知道這裡有很多關於利潤率的問題。上半年業績超預期，您認為哪些因素是造成目前利潤率超預期的主因？或者說，您認為哪些因素是主要原因？

Yes. Tien-Tsin, I hate to use kind of a very generic answer to the question, but it is the very generic answer to the question. We had an expense plan and would beat it. So there was some mix effect. I mean, I don't want to say that Management Solutions over performing the way it didn't impact. It did. So I think that's part of it. But also expenses were better in the first half.

是的。田進，我不想用這麼籠統的答案來回答這個問題，但事實就是如此。我們制定了費用計劃，而且實際執行情況比計劃的要好。所以這其中存在一些綜合影響。我的意思是，我不想說管理解決方案的超額完成沒有任何影響。它確實產生了影響。所以我認為這是部分原因。但同時，上半年的費用控制也更好。

Got it. No, look, I like the simple answer. So I appreciate that. Have a best holidays.

明白了。不，其實我喜歡簡單的答案。所以我很感激。祝你假期愉快。

And we have no further questions at this time. I'll turn it back to Mr. John Gibson for any additional or closing remarks.

目前我們沒有其他問題了。我將把發言權交還給約翰·吉布森先生，請他作補充或總結發言。

Thank you, [Todd]. Well, at this point, we'll close the call. I would like to thank you for your support during my first call as President and CEO. I look forward to getting to know each and every one of you better in the future. We've got a chance to talk to some of you. I'm sure we'll get a chance to talk to more. If you're interested in a replay of the webcast of this conference call, it will be archived for approximately 90 days.

謝謝托德。好的，這次通話到此結束。感謝各位在我擔任總裁兼執行長的首次電話會議上的支持。我期待未來能更了解各位。我們今天有機會和你們中的一些人交流，我相信以後還有機會和更多人交流。如果您有興趣回放本次電話會議的網路直播，它將存檔約90天。

Again, I want to thank you for your support of Paychex. I hope all of you and your families have a happy holiday and happy new year.

再次感謝您對Paychex的支持。祝您和您的家人節日快樂，新年快樂。

Thank you. This concludes today's call. We appreciate your patience. You may disconnect at any time.

謝謝。今天的通話到此結束。感謝您的耐心等待。您可以隨時掛斷電話。