沛齊 (PAYX) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Paychex Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year-end Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加今天的 Paychex 第四季度和財政年終收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話正在錄音中。 （操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Mr. Martin Mucci, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Sir, please begin.

現在我很高興將今天的節目交給董事長兼首席執行官 Martin Mucci 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, and thank you for joining us for our discussion of the Paychex Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 earnings release. Joining me today are: Efrain Rivera, our Chief Financial Officer; and John Gibson, our President and Chief Operating Officer.

謝謝你，感謝你加入我們對 Paychex 第四季度和 2022 財年收益發布的討論。今天加入我的有：我們的首席財務官 Efrain Rivera；和我們的總裁兼首席運營官約翰·吉布森。

This morning, before the market opened, we released our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended May 31, 2022. You can access our earnings release on the Investor Relations website and our Form 10-K will be filed with the SEC before the end of July. This teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on the website for about 90 days.

今天上午，在開市前，我們發布了截至 2022 年 5 月 31 日的第四季度和全年財務業績。您可以在投資者關係網站上訪問我們的收益發布，我們的 10-K 表格將在之前提交給 SEC七月底。此次電話會議正在互聯網上播出，並將在網站上存檔和使用約 90 天。

We will start today's call with an update on business highlights for fourth quarter and the fiscal year. Efrain will review our financial results and outlook for fiscal 2023, and we will then open it up for your questions or comments.

我們將在今天的電話會議開始時更新第四季度和本財年的業務亮點。 Efrain 將審查我們對 2023 財年的財務業績和展望，然後我們將向您提出問題或意見。

We are very pleased to close on our fiscal year with yet another strong quarter. Our successful fiscal 2022 results reflect strong execution across the company. This includes our sales teams highlighting our value proposition, our service teams in retaining clients, our cross-functional partnership to get new products in front of clients quickly and a solid success in HR outsourcing and in the mid-market.

我們很高興以又一個強勁的季度結束我們的財政年度。我們成功的 2022 財年業績反映了整個公司的強大執行力。這包括我們的銷售團隊強調我們的價值主張、我們的服務團隊留住客戶、我們的跨職能合作夥伴關係以快速將新產品推向客戶面前，以及在人力資源外包和中端市場方面取得的穩固成功。

Our adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 24% reflects both strong revenue growth and margin expansion to an operating margin of approximately 40% for fiscal 2022. Our focus on cost control, lower discretionary spend and operating efficiencies has allowed us to both invest in our business and expand operating margins.

我們調整後的稀釋後每股收益增長 24%，這反映了強勁的收入增長和利潤率擴張，到 2022 財年營業利潤率約為 40%。我們對成本控制、降低可支配支出和運營效率的關注使我們能夠同時投資於我們的業務並擴大營業利潤。

Macroeconomic trends have been positive this year, but with inflation at a 40-year high, there are concerns for potential of a recession in the near future. We continue to monitor key leading indicators for any signs of a change in the macroeconomic environment, but have not seen any signs of deterioration at this time.

今年的宏觀經濟趨勢是積極的，但由於通脹率處於 40 年來的最高水平，人們擔心在不久的將來可能出現衰退。我們將繼續監測關鍵領先指標是否有任何宏觀經濟環境變化的跡象，但目前尚未發現任何惡化跡象。

Typically, the first signs of a macroeconomic recession would be a decline in employment levels at existing clients and uptick in non-processing clients or a slowdown in sales activities. These indicators continue to trend in a positive direction.

通常，宏觀經濟衰退的最初跡象將是現有客戶的就業水平下降，非加工客戶增加或銷售活動放緩。這些指標繼續朝著積極的方向發展。

The latest Paychex IHS Small Business Employment Watch reflected a 12-month consecutive -- a 12th consecutive month of increasing hourly earnings gains, though we did notice slowing a bit of the pace of job growth in May. However, this is more reflective of being near full employment and the difficulty of finding employees.

最新的 Paychex IHS 小型企業就業觀察反映了連續 12 個月 - 連續第 12 個月增加時薪增長，儘管我們確實注意到 5 月份的就業增長速度有所放緩。然而，這更多地反映了接近充分就業和尋找員工的困難。

Job growth at U.S. small businesses remained strong in the face of a tight labor market and inflation pressures.

面對勞動力市場緊張和通脹壓力，美國小企業的就業增長依然強勁。

Earlier this year, John Gibson was appointed President and Chief Operating Officer. John has been leading our service operation since 2013 and we're glad to introduce you to him on this call and have him participate. I will now turn it over to John, who will give us an update on our sales and service performance. John?

今年早些時候，約翰·吉布森被任命為總裁兼首席運營官。 John 自 2013 年以來一直領導我們的服務運營，我們很高興在這次電話會議上向您介紹他並讓他參與其中。我現在將把它交給約翰，他將為我們提供有關我們銷售和服務績效的最新信息。約翰？

Thank you, Marty. I'm happy to be joining all of you today on this call. and provide an update on our performance, both for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year '22. We finished the year with over 730,000 total payroll clients with growth driven by both strong sales and retention. In addition, we now service approximately 2 million work-site employees to our ASO and PEO offerings, with 18% growth in the fiscal year.

謝謝你，馬蒂。我很高興今天能和大家一起參加這次電話會議。並提供我們在第四季度和整個 22 財年的業績更新。我們在這一年結束時擁有超過 730,000 名總薪資客戶，增長得益於強勁的銷售和留存率。此外，我們現在為大約 200 萬工作場所員工提供 ASO 和 PEO 產品服務，在本財年增長 18%。

We had a record level of new sales revenue for both the fourth quarter and full fiscal year. Our sales teams truly executed across the board from digital sales in the low end and continuing momentum in the mid-market and very particularly strong demand in HR outsourcing and retirement. This reflects the strength of our value proposition and was aided by the improved sales productivity by our continued investments in demand generation and sales tools.

我們在第四季度和整個財年都創下了創紀錄的新銷售收入水平。我們的銷售團隊從低端的數字銷售到中端市場的持續發展勢頭，以及對人力資源外包和退休的需求非常強勁，真正實現了全面執行。這反映了我們價值主張的優勢，並得益於我們對需求生成和銷售工具的持續投資提高了銷售效率。

Our service teams have worked tirelessly to both support our clients and our sales growth throughout the year. We are very pleased with our revenue retention, which was comparable to our pre-pandemic record of last year. We have continued to make strong progress in hiring, and we actually accelerated some hiring into the fourth quarter to ensure we are fully staffed and ready to execute our goals in fiscal year '23.

我們的服務團隊不知疲倦地工作，以支持我們的客戶和我們全年的銷售增長。我們對我們的收入保留感到非常滿意，這與我們去年大流行前的記錄相當。我們在招聘方面繼續取得強勁進展，實際上我們在第四季度加速了一些招聘，以確保我們配備齊全並準備好在 23 財年執行我們的目標。

We believe that by partnering with our clients and remaining agile and flexible in how we meet those needs, we will provide them the ability to focus on running their business and increase their success in navigating today's very complex business environment. Their ability to rely on Paychex to make the complex simple will result in their continued success and will, of course, then lead to continued elevated retention that benefits everyone.

我們相信，通過與我們的客戶合作並在我們如何滿足這些需求方面保持敏捷和靈活，我們將使他們能夠專注於經營他們的業務並提高他們在當今非常複雜的商業環境中導航的成功。他們依靠 Paychex 使復雜的事情變得簡單的能力將導致他們持續成功，當然，這將導致持續提高的留存率，從而使每個人都受益。

I'll now turn the call back over to Marty.

我現在將電話轉回給 Marty。

Thanks, John. We continue to help our clients deal with the issues they consider most pressing. We were recently recognized for doing just that by receiving the HR Tech Award from Lighthouse Research and Advisory for the best SMB-focused solution in the core HR workforce category for the third consecutive year.

謝謝，約翰。我們繼續幫助我們的客戶處理他們認為最緊迫的問題。最近，我們連續第三年獲得 Lighthouse Research and Advisory 頒發的人力資源技術獎，以表彰我們在核心人力資源勞動力類別中的最佳專注於中小企業的解決方案。

What stood out about Paychex Flex was our ability to rapidly respond to changing conditions, delivering a product that is consistently up to date on the latest requirements. We have been able to help clients navigate challenges, including recruiting and retaining talent during the great resignation, gaining access to government stimulus programs like the employee retention tax credit, enhancing benefit offerings and transitioning to a digitally-enabled distributed work environment.

Paychex Flex 的突出之處在於我們能夠快速響應不斷變化的條件，提供始終符合最新要求的產品。我們已經能夠幫助客戶應對挑戰，包括在重大辭職期間招聘和留住人才、獲得政府刺激計劃（如員工留任稅收抵免）、增強福利以及過渡到數字化分佈式工作環境。

Our strong and resilient product suite of HR, payroll, insurance, retirement and PEO have been strategically designed to help businesses maximize every opportunity presented to them. We continue to see expanded utilization of our recruiting and applicant tracking solutions designed to help businesses find talent in a low unemployment environment.

我們強大而有彈性的人力資源、工資單、保險、退休和 PEO 產品套件經過戰略設計，旨在幫助企業最大限度地利用提供給他們的每一個機會。我們繼續看到我們旨在幫助企業在低失業率環境中尋找人才的招聘和申請人跟踪解決方案的廣泛使用。

Our deep integration with Indeed is helping our clients gain access to a strong set of candidates. Over 70% of the client employees hired through our Flex recruiting and applicant tracking module were sourced from Indeed, the world's largest job posting site.

我們與 Indeed 的深度整合正在幫助我們的客戶接觸到強大的候選人。通過我們的 Flex 招聘和申請人跟踪模塊聘用的客戶員工中，超過 70% 來自全球最大的職位發佈網站 Indeed。

Our retirement solutions are also experiencing record demand due to state mandates and the need for differentiated benefit offerings to retain top talent. The introduction of our Pooled Employer Plan further differentiates our solution set. We now help over 104,000 businesses and over 1.3 million client employees save for a dignified environment retirement with industry-leading mobile technology, which allows employees to enjoy enrolling their retirement in just 4 clicks.

由於國家規定以及需要提供差異化福利來留住頂尖人才，我們的退休解決方案也面臨創紀錄的需求。我們的聯合雇主計劃的推出進一步區分了我們的解決方案集。現在，我們通過行業領先的移動技術幫助超過 104,000 家企業和超過 130 萬客戶員工為有尊嚴的退休環境進行儲蓄，讓員工只需單擊 4 次即可享受退休生活。

HR has historically been tasked with helping businesses stay compliant and manage their talent. With Paychex HR, we deliver on these goals while also helping businesses operate more efficiently. Paychex HR helps businesses replace paper with modern, easy-to-use digital processes through our cloud-enabled Flex mobile technology.

歷來，人力資源部的任務是幫助企業保持合規和管理人才。借助 Paychex HR，我們實現了這些目標，同時還幫助企業更高效地運營。 Paychex HR 通過我們支持雲的 Flex 移動技術，幫助企業用易於使用的現代數字流程取代紙張。

Given current challenges with hiring and the rising costs brought on by inflation, we address head on the need for businesses to operate more efficiently. Over 1.7 million client employees were onboarded through a completely digital experience during fiscal '22.

鑑於當前招聘面臨的挑戰以及通貨膨脹帶來的成本上升，我們正視企業提高運營效率的需求。在 22 財年，超過 170 萬名客戶員工通過完全數字化的體驗入職。

Maximum gains and efficiency are obtained when the leading technology we bring to payroll HR and time collection and scheduling are brought together. Paychex Pre-Check debut in January and the early adopters of Pre-Check have benefited from the proactive approach of letting their employees preview and approve their checks prior to processing. Prospects have been excited about the time savings and problem avoidance that comes with Pre-Check.

當我們為薪資 HR 和時間收集和調度帶來的領先技術結合在一起時，可以獲得最大的收益和效率。 Paychex Pre-Check 於 1 月份首次亮相，Pre-Check 的早期採用者受益於讓員工在處理前預覽和批准支票的主動方法。潛在客戶對預檢查所帶來的時間節省和問題避免感到興奮。

We also continue to innovate in the PEO space, Paychex PEO offers a continuum benefits that is unique to our clients from traditional health dental and vision funded by the client to comprehensive employee volunteer packages, including options for employees to purchase anything from critical illness policies to pet insurance to new and emerging benefit offerings like student loan subsidies, robust benefit offerings designed for part-time employees, telemedicine and mental health counseling.

我們還繼續在 PEO 領域進行創新，Paychex PEO 為我們的客戶提供獨特的連續福利，從由客戶資助的傳統健康牙科和願景到全面的員工志願者套餐，包括員工購買從重大疾病保單到寵物保險到新興福利產品，如學生貸款補貼、為兼職員工設計的強大福利產品、遠程醫療和心理健康諮詢。

Our Paychex PEO provides a differentiated approach to benefits designed to help our clients attract and retain top talent.

我們的 Paychex PEO 提供了一種差異化的福利方法，旨在幫助我們的客戶吸引和留住頂尖人才。

Managing cash flow is also a top priority for businesses as they are struggling to address the impact of supply chain issues and rising inflation. We continue to find ways for customers to access government stimulus including helping our clients gain access to over $8 billion in employee retention and paid leave tax credits. This builds on the momentum of our $65 billion of PPP loan program initiative in 2020. Our award-winning PPP forgiveness tool has been instrumental in helping our clients transition 96% of those loans to full loan forgiveness.

管理現金流也是企業的重中之重，因為它們正在努力解決供應鏈問題和通脹上升的影響。我們繼續為客戶尋找獲得政府刺激措施的方法，包括幫助我們的客戶獲得超過 80 億美元的員工保留和帶薪休假稅收抵免。這建立在我們 2020 年 650 億美元 PPP 貸款計劃倡議的勢頭之上。我們屢獲殊榮的 PPP 寬恕工具有助於幫助我們的客戶將 96% 的貸款轉換為全額貸款寬恕。

At Paychex, we know our employees are critical to who we are and what we do, and I believe that our focus on employees and their well-being has helped us manage through the competitive labor market. We are identified as one of the America's best employers for diversity by Forbes Magazine and were recognized by business group on health for offering one of the nation's top health and well-being programs with the Best Employers: Excellence in Health and Well-being award.

在 Paychex，我們知道我們的員工對我們是誰和我們做什麼至關重要，我相信我們對員工及其福祉的關注幫助我們在競爭激烈的勞動力市場中進行管理。我們被福布斯雜誌確定為美國最好的多元化雇主之一，並被健康商業集團認可，因為我們提供了全國頂級的健康和福祉計劃之一，並獲得了最佳雇主：健康和福祉卓越獎。

As fiscal '22 came to a close, I'm very proud of the excellent results we had for the year and excited about our continued growth. I want to thank our 16,000 employees who are key to our success and have done a tremendous job in this ever-changing environment.

隨著 22 財年即將結束，我為我們在這一年取得的優異成績感到非常自豪，並對我們的持續增長感到興奮。我要感謝我們的 16,000 名員工，他們是我們成功的關鍵，他們在這個瞬息萬變的環境中做出了巨大的貢獻。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Efrain Rivera to review our financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year as well as our guidance for fiscal 2023. Efrain?

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給 Efrain Rivera，以審查我們第四季度和財年的財務業績以及我們對 2023 財年的指導。Efrain？

Thanks, Marty, and good morning to all of you. It's great to join you at the end of one of the most successful years in the company's history despite the success what you have from us and will always have is a team that's grounded and we'll continue to work to deliver shareholder returns that lead the market.

謝謝，馬蒂，大家早上好。很高興在公司歷史上最成功的年份之一結束時加入您，儘管您從我們這裡獲得併將永遠擁有的是一個腳踏實地的團隊，我們將繼續努力提供領先的股東回報市場。

I'd like to remind everyone that today's conference call will contain forward-looking investment statements. Refer to the customary disclosures. I'll periodically refer to some non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the press release and investor presentation for more information. They're pretty modest adjustments.

我想提醒大家，今天的電話會議將包含前瞻性投資聲明。請參閱慣常披露。我會定期參考一些非公認會計原則的措施。有關更多信息，請參閱新聞稿和投資者介紹。它們是相當適度的調整。

I'll start by providing a summary of our fourth quarter financial results, quickly hit on full year results and then provide some guidance for fiscal '23. For the fourth quarter of fiscal '22, as you saw, about service revenue and total revenue increased 11% to $1.1 billion. Management Solutions had another strong quarter, increasing to 12% to $845 million, driven by higher revenue per client and growth in our payroll client base. The higher revenue per client reflects product attachment across our HCM suite, higher employment levels within our base, pricing, revenue from ancillary services, including our ERTC service.

我將首先提供我們第四季度財務業績的摘要，快速了解全年業績，然後為 23 財年提供一些指導。如您所見，在 22 財年第四季度，服務收入和總收入增長了 11%，達到 11 億美元。管理解決方案又一個強勁的季度增長至 12% 至 8.45 億美元，這得益於更高的每位客戶收入和我們的薪資客戶群的增長。每個客戶較高的收入反映了我們 HCM 套件中的產品附件、我們基地內較高的就業水平、定價、輔助服務（包括我們的 ERTC 服務）的收入。

ERTC revenue reached approximately 1% of total service revenue. That's for the year. While we do not anticipate this revenue stream to continue at that level, there still remains a significant opportunity both inside and outside our base.

ERTC 收入約佔總服務收入的 1%。那是一年。雖然我們預計這種收入流不會繼續保持在這個水平，但在我們的基地內外仍然存在重大機會。

PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue increased 10% to $284 million, driven primarily by higher average work-site employees in health insurance revenue. Interest on funds held for clients increased just 2% for the quarter to $15 million due primarily to growth in average investment balances. Note that while recent rate hikes did not have a significant impact on the fiscal quarter, they will provide a tailwind for next year.

PEO 和保險解決方案收入增長 10% 至 2.84 億美元，主要是由於健康保險收入中的平均工作場所員工人數增加。本季度為客戶持有的資金利息僅增加 2% 至 1500 萬美元，主要是由於平均投資餘額的增長。請注意，儘管最近的加息並未對本財季產生重大影響，但它們將為明年提供順風。

Total expenses increased 11% to $750 million. The growth in expenses resulted primarily from higher compensation costs due to increased headcount to support our growing client base wage rates and performance-based compensation. In addition, we continue to invest in our products, technology and marketing.

總支出增長 11% 至 7.5 億美元。費用的增長主要是由於增加了員工人數以支持我們不斷增長的客戶基礎工資率和基於績效的薪酬，導致薪酬成本增加。此外，我們繼續投資於我們的產品、技術和營銷。

And I just want to call out the margin in the quarter. We made very deliberate choices in the fourth quarter to invest back in our client base and in our -- among our employees. That's why all of the flow-through did not go down to the bottom line, and that was a deliberate choice that we think leads to the future sustainability of the business. And we think we're positioned very well as a result of those choices.

我只想指出本季度的利潤。我們在第四季度做出了非常慎重的選擇，以投資於我們的客戶群和我們的員工。這就是為什麼所有的流通都沒有達到底線的原因，我們認為這是一個深思熟慮的選擇，它會導致業務的未來可持續性。我們認為，由於這些選擇，我們的定位非常好。

Operating income increased 11% to $394 million with an operating margin of 34.4% and adjusted operating margin was flat for the reasons I just said. And we anticipated some hiring and marketing spend and pull back into Q4.

營業收入增長 11% 至 3.94 億美元，營業利潤率為 34.4%，調整後的營業利潤率持平，原因我剛才說過。我們預計會有一些招聘和營銷支出，並會回到第四季度。

Net income increased 13% for the quarter to $296 million and diluted earnings per share increased 12% to $0.82 per share despite all of that investment. Adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share both increased 13% for the quarter to $295 million and $0.81 per share, respectively. As I said, the adjustments were relatively modest.

儘管進行了所有投資，但本季度的淨收入增長了 13% 至 2.96 億美元，每股攤薄收益增長了 12% 至每股 0.82 美元。本季度調整後的淨收入和調整後的每股攤薄收益分別增長 13% 至 2.95 億美元和 0.81 美元。正如我所說，調整相對溫和。

Full year fiscal '22, let me touch on that quickly. You saw total service revenue and total revenues both increased 14% to $4.6 billion. Expenses, including onetime costs incurred during the prior year, increased 8%. Operating income and adjusted operating income increased 26% and 23% respectively, the $1.8 billion, adjusted operating margin was 39.9%, an expansion of 310 basis points over the prior year. And I just called that out.

'22 財年全年，讓我快速談談。您看到總服務收入和總收入均增長 14% 至 46 億美元。包括上一年發生的一次性成本在內的費用增長了 8%。營業收入和調整後營業收入分別增長 26% 和 23%，調整後營業利潤率為 18 億美元，為 39.9%，比上年擴大 310 個基點。我只是說出來。

You will search high and low to find some companies that are at that level. We've delivered that. We delivered that while investing in the company because we think that we're not playing a game for the next quarter or the next year. We're playing a game for the long haul. That's what you do when you're that kind of company.

您將搜索高低以找到一些處於該級別的公司。我們已經交付了。我們在投資公司的同時實現了這一點，因為我們認為我們不會在下個季度或明年玩遊戲。我們正在玩一個長期的遊戲。當你是那種公司時，你就是這樣做的。

Diluted earnings per share increased 27% to $3.84 per share. Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 24% to $3.77 per share. I'm really proud of our financial position. We delivered all of that and our financial position remains rock solid with cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments of $1.3 billion. Total borrowings were $806 million as of May 31. Cash flow from operations was $1.5 billion during the fiscal year. We translate earnings into cash. That's what we do. Free cash flow generated for the year was $1.3 billion, up 20% year-over-year. So earnings and cash flow were really strong this year.

稀釋後每股收益增長 27% 至每股 3.84 美元。調整後的每股攤薄收益增長 24% 至每股 3.77 美元。我真的為我們的財務狀況感到自豪。我們實現了所有這些，我們的財務狀況仍然堅如磐石，現金、受限現金和公司總投資為 13 億美元。截至 5 月 31 日，總借款為 8.06 億美元。本財年運營現金流為 15 億美元。我們將收益轉化為現金。這就是我們所做的。全年產生的自由現金流為 13 億美元，同比增長 20%。因此，今年的收益和現金流非常強勁。

Given the strong performance and our commitment to returning capital to shareholders, in May, we increased our quarterly dividend 20% to $0.79 per share. And as many of you know, we have one of the leading dividend in certainly in our sector and industry. And during fiscal '22, we paid out a total of $1 billion in dividends, and we also repurchased 1.2 million shares of Paychex common stock for $145 million. Our 12-month rolling return on equity was a superb 45%.

鑑於強勁的業績和我們向股東返還資本的承諾，我們在 5 月份將季度股息提高了 20% 至每股 0.79 美元。正如你們許多人所知，我們在我們的行業和行業中肯定擁有領先的紅利之一。在 22 財年，我們支付了總計 10 億美元的股息，我們還以 1.45 億美元的價格回購了 120 萬股 Paychex 普通股。我們 12 個月的滾動股本回報率高達 45%。

Now let's talk about '23. I'm going to turn to the upcoming fiscal year. And our current guidance is as follows: Management Solutions revenue is expected to grow in the range of 5% to 7%, PEO and Insurance Solutions is expected to grow in the range of 8% to 10%, interest on funds held for clients expected to be in the range of $85 million to $95 million. And let me just call out that this reflects increases in line with what we understand the Fed is saying through the end of this calendar year.

現在讓我們談談'23。我將轉向即將到來的財政年度。我們目前的指導如下：管理解決方案收入預計增長 5% 至 7%，PEO 和保險解決方案預計增長 8% 至 10%，預期為客戶持有的資金利息在 8500 萬美元到 9500 萬美元之間。讓我指出，這反映了美聯儲在本日曆年年底之前所說的話的增長。

What does that mean specifically? It means that we think that interest rates by the end of calendar year 2022 will be approximately 3.25%, give or take, and we are assuming that in our plans at this stage. Total revenue is expected to grow in the range of 7% to 8%. Adjusted operating income margin is expected to be in the range of 40% to 41%. Not only did we deliver a 300 basis point increase, we are committing to additional leverage as we go into next year despite having made a lot of investments in the business as we've gone along.

這具體是什麼意思？這意味著我們認為到 2022 年年底的利率將約為 3.25%，無論是取捨還是取捨，我們在現階段的計劃中都假設了這一點。預計總收入將增長7%至8%。調整後的營業利潤率預計將在 40% 至 41% 之間。我們不僅增加了 300 個基點，而且我們承諾在進入明年時提高槓桿率，儘管我們已經在業務上進行了大量投資。

Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be another stellar 44%. Other expense net is expected to be in the range of $5 million to $10 million. Just so you all remember, that is a combination of both interest expense less the income on the portfolio. That's why it's $5 million to $10 million. We expect that we will see income from the portfolio to offset some of the interest expense.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將再次達到驚人的 44%。其他費用淨額預計在 500 萬美元至 1000 萬美元之間。請記住，這是利息支出減去投資組合收入的組合。這就是為什麼它是 500 萬到 1000 萬美元。我們預計投資組合的收入將抵消部分利息支出。

Our effective income tax is expected to be in the range of 24% to 25%. And adjusted diluted earnings per share at this point we expect to grow in the range of 9% to 10%. This outlook assumes the current macro environment, which, as all of you know, has some uncertainty. We, like you, week-to-week, struggle to understand sometimes what are the signals that are coming out of the federal government.

我們的有效所得稅預計將在 24% 至 25% 的範圍內。我們預計此時調整後的稀釋後每股收益將增長 9% 至 10%。這一前景假設當前的宏觀環境，正如你們所知，存在一些不確定性。我們和你一樣，每週都在努力理解聯邦政府發出的信號是什麼。

I want to reiterate something that Marty said. The indicators in our business are strong as we exit the year. So that's not a concern certainly in the first half of the year in as much as we see it right now. Second half, we will see. So where is inflation going to be? We don't know that. What is the Fed exactly going to do? We think we have some indicators. We will see what they end up doing.

我想重申一下Marty 所說的話。隨著我們退出這一年，我們的業務指標很強勁。因此，正如我們現在所看到的那樣，這在今年上半年肯定不是一個問題。下半場，我們拭目以待。那麼通貨膨脹將在哪裡？我們不知道。美聯儲到底要做什麼？我們認為我們有一些指標。我們將看到他們最終會做什麼。

We obviously, given all of those comments have better visibility into the first half of fiscal '23 than the second half. So here's what we think about the first half. In the first half of the year, at this stage, we expect total revenue growth to be in the range of 8% to 9% with an operating margin of approximately 39%. That's what we think will happen in the first half.

顯然，鑑於所有這些評論對 23 財年上半年的可見性比下半年要好。所以這就是我們對上半年的看法。在今年上半年，現階段，我們預計總收入增長將在 8% 至 9% 之間，營業利潤率約為 39%。這就是我們認為上半年會發生的事情。

And then for the first quarter, getting a little closer, we currently are anticipating total revenue growth will be in the range of 9% to 10%, with adjusted operating margin in the range of 39% to 40%. Of course, all of this is subject to current assumptions, which are subject to change, and we'll update you again on the first quarter call.

然後對於第一季度，離我們越來越近，我們目前預計總收入增長將在 9% 到 10% 之間，調整後的營業利潤率在 39% 到 40% 之間。當然，所有這些都取決於當前的假設，這些假設可能會發生變化，我們將在第一季度電話會議上再次通知您。

Let me refer you to the investor slides on our website for additional information. And with that, I will turn the call back to Marty.

讓我向您推薦我們網站上的投資者幻燈片以獲取更多信息。有了這個，我會把電話轉回給馬蒂。

Thank you, Efrain. Operator, we'll now open it up for questions or comments.

謝謝你，埃弗拉恩。接線員，我們現在將其打開以供提問或評論。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from David Togut with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

I appreciate all the helpful call outs, Efrain, on fourth quarter margin impacts. Could you frame in your fiscal '23 revenue and margin guidance, specifically 3 things. First, what impact are you assuming from inflation on wage and other expenses? Second, if you could quantify your fiscal '23 price increase. And third, if you could bracket for us your expectations on client revenue retention. We're coming down from the pandemic-driven peak. How should we think about year-over-year change in client revenue retention FY '23 versus FY '22?

我感謝 Efrain 關於第四季度利潤率影響的所有有用的呼籲。您能否制定 23 財年的收入和利潤率指導，特別是三件事。首先，您假設通貨膨脹對工資和其他開支有何影響？其次，如果您可以量化您的 23 財年價格上漲。第三，如果您可以為我們提供您對客戶收入保留的期望。我們正在從大流行驅動的高峰期走下坡路。我們應該如何看待 23 財年與 22 財年客戶收入保留率的同比變化？

Thanks. Okay. David, thanks for the questions. By the way, that triple header there could take us about 30 minutes. We'll try to make it -- so I'm going to let Marty talk to the inflation question because I think that's a good one. And kind of how we think about it in the year. It's baked into the numbers, obviously, we won't quantify a specific number, but we'll tell you about what we're thinking about with respect to inflation and how it's affecting us, how we expect it will infect us.

謝謝。好的。大衛，謝謝你的提問。順便說一句，那裡的三重頭球可能需要我們大約 30 分鐘。我們會努力做到這一點——所以我會讓馬蒂談談通脹問題，因為我認為這是一個很好的問題。以及我們對這一年的看法。顯然，它已包含在數字中，我們不會量化具體數字，但我們會告訴你我們對通貨膨脹的看法以及它如何影響我們，我們預計它將如何影響我們。

Yes. I'll touch on it, David, and Efrain can jump in any place. I think from an inflation, most of us -- most of our expenses obviously are wage. We're not really impacted obviously by a lot of material impacts, which is very good for us. Wage stuff we've captured in these numbers, we think are going to -- the wage increases are a little higher. As Efrain mentioned, we took some steps in the fourth quarter that was somewhere onetime other were wages that we built in a little bit higher from a competitive market standpoint. The onetime things were some year-end bonuses and so forth that we did given our very successful year for employees.

是的。我會談到它，大衛和埃弗蘭可以在任何地方跳躍。我認為從通貨膨脹來看，我們大多數人——我們的大部分開支顯然是工資。我們並沒有受到很多物質影響的明顯影響，這對我們來說非常好。我們從這些數字中獲得的工資數據，我們認為會——工資增長會更高一些。正如 Efrain 所提到的，我們在第四季度採取了一些措施，從競爭市場的角度來看，我們的工資比以前高一點。一次性的事情是一些年終獎金等等，我們為員工提供了非常成功的一年。

So we think we've captured it very well. Wages were a little bit higher than we would normally go. That's expectation. That happens in this first quarter. Basically, that the wage is hit, and we think we've captured them well.

所以我們認為我們已經很好地捕捉到了它。工資比我們通常去的要高一點。那是期待。這發生在第一季度。基本上，工資受到打擊，我們認為我們已經很好地抓住了他們。

Other than that, really not an overall large impact, we've controlled expenses very tightly. Even coming out of the pandemic, things that we learned and experienced there with working from home, having sales remote, much less T&E cost. We've been able to continue that trend yet still invest in the business. So I think the guidance you have there is very strong from a standpoint that we've got those inflationary numbers in there.

除此之外，整體影響並不大，我們非常嚴格地控制開支。即使從大流行中走出來，我們在那裡學到和經歷的事情是在家工作、遠程銷售、更少的 T&E 成本。我們已經能夠繼續這種趨勢，但仍然投資於業務。所以我認為從我們那裡得到那些通脹數據的角度來看，你的指導非常有力。

Yes. So I think the thing I wanted to call out that Marty mentioned is that we, in the fourth quarter, took a lot of actions that we think position us very well for '23. So I think we've captured as much as we know right now. There's always some room to make further adjustments, but the adjustments from an inflationary standpoint are really around wages for us. So I think we've captured that.

是的。所以我想我想指出馬蒂提到的事情是，我們在第四季度採取了很多我們認為對 23 年非常有利的行動。所以我認為我們現在已經捕捉到了我們所知道的一切。總有一些進一步調整的空間，但從通貨膨脹的角度來看，調整實際上是圍繞我們的工資。所以我認為我們已經抓住了這一點。

On the price increase, we have always said that we're in the 2% to 4% range. I would say this is a year that certainly was at the high end of that range and it varies depending on the product. I think the key thing there is to get the right mixture of value and price. And it's not just about raising prices, it's also about delivering better value. So I think we're good there.

關於價格上漲，我們一直說我們在 2% 到 4% 的範圍內。我會說這一年肯定處於該範圍的高端，並且因產品而異。我認為關鍵是要獲得價值和價格的正確組合。這不僅僅是提高價格，還涉及提供更好的價值。所以我認為我們在那裡很好。

And then on the client retention, we had a really good year. John mentioned earlier that our pandemic high was approximately -- was a record, and it was approximately 88%. When we closed the books this year, we were at approximately 88%. So we had a really good year from a revenue retention standpoint. There's lots of elements to that. But I think we've made a lot of strides from where we were probably 3, 4, 5 years ago. So that's -- those are the answers to your question, David.

然後在客戶保留方面，我們度過了非常好的一年。約翰早些時候提到，我們的大流行高點大約是 - 是創紀錄的，大約是 88%。當我們今年結賬時，我們的比例約為 88%。因此，從收入保留的角度來看，我們度過了非常好的一年。有很多元素。但我認為我們在 3、4、5 年前可能已經取得了很大的進步。所以這就是你的問題的答案，大衛。

And then, Efrain, what are you assuming for FY '23 client retention? Can you sustain the 88% or are you assuming some step down?

然後，Efrain，您對 23 財年的客戶保留率有何假設？你能維持 88% 還是假設你會降級？

I think it's comparable. I got to say that it wouldn't be surprise -- it wouldn't be surprising to see a little bit of slippage from that number simply because I think we're transitioning into a more normalized environment where you're going to see lots of competition. Our assumption in our plan is that discounting will go up a bit because of the level of competition. So everyone's come out of the pandemic swinging. I think some people are in better shape. Others are wobblier. We think we're in pretty good shape, and we're in a position to defend pretty well.

我認為是可比的。我不得不說這並不奇怪——看到這個數字有一點滑點也不足為奇，因為我認為我們正在過渡到一個更加規範的環境，在那裡你會看到很多的競爭。我們在計劃中的假設是，由於競爭程度，折扣會增加一點。所以每個人都擺脫了大流行的搖擺。我認為有些人的身體狀況更好。其他人則更加搖擺不定。我們認為我們的狀態非常好，而且我們能夠很好地防守。

The other thing I would say on that, that's really helped us in the year as we had a really strong year in the mid-market. And I'll let Marty talk to kind of what happened there because that's really helped us, too.

我要說的另一件事是，這確實幫助了我們這一年，因為我們在中端市場度過了非常強勁的一年。我會讓馬蒂談談那裡發生的事情，因為這也真的幫助了我們。

Yes. On the revenue retention side, it's a good point to make that we'll make probably a couple of times on this call. The mid-market really picked up. And as we said probably a year ago, there was kind of a pent-up demand that we saw a year ago where people had not made some decisions. That opened back up, and we've been winning a lot mid-markets, the strongest year we've had in mid-market probably in our history. And I think it's a great combination of sales execution, the products and the full suite of products that we're offering that is really tailored to exactly what clients are looking for now.

是的。在收入保留方面，這是一個很好的觀點，我們可能會在這次電話會議上進行幾次。中端市場真的好起來了。正如我們可能在一年前所說的那樣，一年前我們看到了一種被壓抑的需求，人們還沒有做出一些決定。這又打開了，我們已經贏得了很多中端市場，這可能是我們歷史上在中端市場中表現最強勁的一年。我認為這是銷售執行、產品和我們提供的全套產品的完美結合，真正適合客戶現在正在尋找的東西。

So we've had a lot of success there, which certainly helps on the revenue retention from a go-forward standpoint. Not only are we selling better in that mid-market, but we're retaining in a very strong way as well.

所以我們在那裡取得了很大的成功，從前進的角度來看，這肯定有助於保持收入。我們不僅在這個中端市場銷售得更好，而且我們也以非常強大的方式保留了下來。

Our next question will come from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh。

Great. And congratulations. I don't know if this is for Marty or Efrain, but clearly, the retention feels like it's structurally at a higher level, like it may have been flow within a higher level of range. So maybe just help us understand kind of what drove that? Was that kind of just the service post-COVID or a more robust product offering? Is there any way to kind of think about what drove the structural? And again, realizing it probably comes off, but it feels like you're in a structurally higher level clearly than where you were in kind of '07.

偉大的。並祝賀。我不知道這是給 Marty 還是 Efrain，但很明顯，留存率感覺像是在結構上處於更高的水平，就像它可能在更高的範圍內流動一樣。所以也許只是幫助我們了解是什麼推動了這一點？那隻是 COVID 後的服務還是更強大的產品？有什麼方法可以思考是什麼推動了結構性的發展？再一次，意識到它可能會消失，但感覺你在結構上明顯高於你在 07 年的水平。

Yes, I'll start. I definitely think, Kevin, that there's consistency there. So I think structurally, you're right. We've seen really better from a controllable perspective, we've definitely seen a trend of continued strength there. I think part of it is really the product side. Certainly, I'll take it from the product side and then have John talk about the rest of it. The products have just been very responsive and the continued use by the clients and their employees have made the retention stick.

是的，我會開始的。凱文，我絕對認為那裡有一致性。所以我認為在結構上，你是對的。從可控的角度來看，我們已經看到了更好的情況，我們肯定已經看到了持續強勁的趨勢。我認為其中一部分確實是產品方面。當然，我會從產品方面著手，然後讓 John 討論其餘部分。這些產品的反應非常迅速，客戶及其員工的持續使用使保留率保持不變。

We've talked about that for many years, but I don't think that's ever been stronger, and it really accelerated during the pandemic as people were much more distributed in a workforce. Remote workforces really got to use and had to use the technology more the mobile app for example, and online use as well, but the mobile app really got clients and their employees to use it more. That leads to better retention because clients and employees don't want to give it up because they -- things like Pre-Check. They're seeing their check before it's cut. Hey, they are seeing what their time is that they turned in. Everything looks good. They know what they're going to get paid.

我們已經討論了很多年了，但我認為這種情況從未如此強烈，而且在大流行期間它確實加速了，因為人們在勞動力中分佈得更多。遠程員工確實必須使用並且必須更多地使用該技術，例如移動應用程序和在線使用，但移動應用程序確實讓客戶及其員工更多地使用它。這會帶來更好的保留，因為客戶和員工不想放棄它，因為他們——比如預檢查。他們在支票被削減之前看到了他們的支票。嘿，他們正在查看他們上交的時間。一切看起來都很好。他們知道他們會得到什麼報酬。

They're able to change their retirement or see their retirement funds on the mobile app and change everything. They're able to onboard in a paperless fashion. And so they're making their own direct deposit changes, their bank changes and other things. So all of that, as we talked about over the last few years, I think, has led to that structural improvement, which is, hey, the employees of my client want to stay with Paychex because they're invested in us not just the client's payroll or HR person.

他們能夠改變他們的退休生活或在移動應用程序上查看他們的退休基金並改變一切。他們能夠以無紙化方式登機。因此，他們自己進行直接存款變更、銀行變更和其他事情。因此，正如我們在過去幾年中談到的那樣，我認為所有這一切都導致了結構上的改善，也就是說，嘿，我客戶的員工希望留在 Paychex，因為他們投資於我們的不僅僅是客戶的工資單或人力資源人員。

So I'll ask John to add to that as well, but I think that's a big piece of it.

所以我也會請約翰補充一下，但我認為這是其中很大一部分。

Yes. No, Marty. And Kevin, I would say this is probably a multiyear story. You go back before COVID, things we've been doing in our service model to differentiate our service focus, things we're doing relative to competitive retention triggers, using AI and analytics to anticipate where we may have issues. All of those things have really led to us getting a better handle on our controllable losses. And if you look -- you go back to '18 or in fiscal year '19, you can really begin to see that dramatic piece.

是的。不，馬蒂。凱文，我想說這可能是一個多年的故事。你回到 COVID 之前，我們在服務模型中一直在做的事情，以區分我們的服務重點，我們正在做的事情與競爭保留觸發器相關，使用人工智能和分析來預測我們可能遇到的問題。所有這些事情確實讓我們更好地處理了可控的損失。如果你看——你回到 18 年或 19 財年，你真的可以開始看到那部戲劇性的作品。

I would tell you, particularly to Marty's point, not only the -- what we've done from a service perspective with relationship management and the upper market. Things we're doing there in our HR outsourcing pieces, but we know that product attachment particularly in retirement, particularly in HR, particularly attachment and utilization of our Flex product and technology tools lead to stickiness and we've been very aggressive in introducing our clients to that capability. And so that's also creating a degree of stickiness.

我會告訴你，特別是 Marty 的觀點，不僅僅是我們從關係管理和高端市場的服務角度所做的事情。我們在人力資源外包部分中正在做的事情，但我們知道，特別是在退休時，特別是在人力資源方面，特別是對我們的 Flex 產品和技術工具的依賴和使用會導致粘性，我們一直非常積極地引入我們的客戶到這種能力。所以這也會產生一定程度的粘性。

I mean just -- I look at this all the time and, in fact, our price value losses were actually less this past fiscal year than they were at the record year. And if I go back to '18 and '19, it's about half of what we would typically have seen historically. So there's a structural component to this that we're going to continue to execute. There's more we can be doing there. And I feel good about what we can do on the controllable side. The uncontrollable is always the thing we're monitoring and watching.

我的意思是——我一直都在看這個，事實上，我們在上一財年的價格損失實際上比創紀錄的年份要少。如果我回到 18 和 19 年，這大約是我們通常在歷史上看到的一半。因此，我們將繼續執行其中的結構組件。我們可以在那裡做更多的事情。我對我們在可控方面可以做的事情感覺很好。無法控制的事情始終是我們正在監視和觀察的事情。

Got it. And then just 1 quick follow-up. Efrain, I'll ask, I don't know if you could tell us like in terms of the fourth quarter investment, it sounds like it was a little more variable. Is there any way to kind of frame what that was? And I'd imagine it was more kind of variable as opposed to fixed costs that would kind of repeat in 2023. Is that fair?

知道了。然後只需 1 次快速跟進。 Efrain，我會問，我不知道你能否告訴我們，就第四季度的投資而言，這聽起來有點多變。有什麼辦法可以確定那是什麼嗎？而且我想它更像是可變的，而不是在 2023 年重複的固定成本。這公平嗎？

Well, I guess. So Kevin, let me answer it in a slightly different way, and then hopefully, it's responsive to what you're saying. So they were a mixture of onetime things that we did that were variable. There were things that we did structurally to increase wages in certain areas, and then there were things that we put in place for as long-term incentive. So I would say one of them was -- one of those with respect to employees was more onetime. And the other 2 were structural and will be there longer term.

嗯，我猜。所以凱文，讓我以稍微不同的方式回答它，然後希望它能夠響應你所說的。所以它們是我們曾經做過的事情的混合體，這些事情是可變的。我們在結構上做了一些事情來增加某些領域的工資，然後我們採取了一些措施作為長期激勵措施。所以我會說其中之一是 - 其中一個關於員工的更多的是一次性的。另外兩個是結構性的，並且會長期存在。

There were some other items that were not wage related that were also variable that we did in the fourth quarter. So it was a mix of both. I wouldn't characterize it one way or the other in terms of percentages. But there were 3 buckets there that ended up being part of the expense base.

還有一些與工資無關的其他項目也是我們在第四季度所做的可變因素。所以這是兩者的混合。我不會用百分比來描述它。但是那裡有 3 個存儲桶最終成為費用基礎的一部分。

And I think as Efrain said, all of that, obviously, is in the guidance of increasing the margin. So even though some are more structural and ongoing wage expense or bonus expense, that's all in the increasing operating margin over 40% next year in the guidance.

我認為正如 Efrain 所說，所有這一切顯然都是在提高利潤率的指導下進行的。因此，儘管有些是結構性和持續性的工資支出或獎金支出，但在指導方針中，明年營業利潤率將增長超過 40%。

Yes, that's important.

是的，這很重要。

Our next question will come from Bryan Bergin with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Bryan Bergin 和 Cowen。

So commentary on 4Q is broadly positive here. But I'm hoping you could dig in more specifically on some of those key lending client indicators and what those have been telling you in recent weeks. So can you give us a sense on what you're specifically measuring there?

因此，對第四季度的評論在這里大體上是積極的。但我希望你能更具體地挖掘一些關鍵的貸款客戶指標以及最近幾週這些指標告訴你的內容。那麼你能告訴我們你在那裡具體測量什麼嗎？

Yes. So Bryan, what we did was we kind of dusted off forward indicators that we were looking at during COVID. So we go down to daily punches, buying plywood, daily punches. I'm talking about daily hours clock by employees at our clients. So obviously, we have access to that information. We're looking at that on a daily, weekly, monthly basis to understand what are the trends. We look at sales and we look at losses, that's pretty obvious. And then we look at other micro indicators in terms of engagement with our systems and platforms.

是的。所以 Bryan，我們所做的就是抹去我們在 COVID 期間查看的前瞻性指標。所以我們開始每天打拳，購買膠合板，每天打拳。我說的是我們客戶的員工的每日時鐘。很明顯，我們可以訪問這些信息。我們每天、每週、每月都會對此進行研究，以了解趨勢是什麼。我們看銷售額，我們看損失，這很明顯。然後，我們會根據與我們的系統和平台的互動來查看其他微觀指標。

We put all of that together and look at those indicators to tell us, are we seeing any sharp changes on top of all of that, Marty mentioned, we have the -- not the IHS employment index that we're looking at 350,000 clients, what's happening with that base. And when you put that all in the blender at the moment, it doesn't look significantly different than the trends we've been seeing in the first half of the year.

我們將所有這些放在一起並查看這些指標來告訴我們，除此之外，我們是否看到任何急劇變化，Marty 提到，我們有 - 而不是我們正在研究 350,000 名客戶的 IHS 就業指數，那個基地發生了什麼。現在，當您將所有這些都放在攪拌機中時，它看起來與我們在今年上半年看到的趨勢並沒有太大不同。

So look, you guys are looking at a ton of different pieces of information. All I can say is with respect to our corner of the HCM world and our corner of this part of the economy, things are looking about the way they look. And at this point, neither inflation nor the sharp beginning to be sharp rises and interest rates seem to be slowing things down. Having said that, I will temper, as you all know, with a note of caution things could change. But at this point, we're not seeing it.

所以看，你們正在查看大量不同的信息。我只能說，關於我們在 HCM 世界的角落和我們在這部分經濟中的角落，事情正在尋找它們的樣子。在這一點上，無論是通脹還是急劇上升，利率似乎都沒有讓事情放緩。話雖如此，但眾所周知，我會謹慎行事，事情可能會發生變化。但在這一點上，我們沒有看到它。

Yes. The thing that's consistent, Bryan, is the demand. Small and midsized businesses still seeing a great demand for products and services, and it's finding people. So job growth, if anything, if it slowed in the index, this is under 50 employees. As Efrain said, the growth is still there but it's slowed a little bit. It's more because you're not being able to find the employees. Everybody knows that. You're hearing particularly frontline leisure and hospitality and other service functions. Trying to find people. The demand is still there. So there's a hunger for the need.

是的。 Bryan，始終如一的事情就是需求。中小型企業仍然看到對產品和服務的巨大需求，並且正在尋找人才。所以就業增長，如果有的話，如果它在指數中放緩，那就是不到 50 名員工。正如 Efrain 所說，增長仍然存在，但速度有所放緩。更多的是因為你找不到員工。每個人都知道這一點。您聽到的特別是一線休閒和款待等服務功能。試圖尋找人。需求還在。所以有一種對需求的渴望。

And you'll hear it over and over. The reason that ASO and PEO had performed so well in sales and client retention is because there is such a need for HR support in recruiting and hiring and engaging and training. I mean, there is just a huge need for not only our technology in the HCM space but our over 650 HR specialists who are there to help them with those things.

你會一遍又一遍地聽到它。 ASO 和 PEO 在銷售和客戶保留方面表現如此出色的原因是，在招聘和招聘以及參與和培訓方面需要人力資源支持。我的意思是，不僅需要我們在 HCM 領域的技術，還需要我們 650 多名人力資源專家來幫助他們解決這些問題。

Okay. And then as we think about fiscal '23 and the forecast you built, can you unpack within management solutions specifically, are you still anticipating ASO retirement and some of these other areas to grow double digits versus kind of the payroll and exam. Can you just help us with the underlying business areas in that segment and how you're thinking about growth in '23?

好的。然後，當我們考慮到 23 財年和您建立的預測時，您能否具體了解管理解決方案，您是否仍然期待 ASO 退休和其他一些領域與工資單和考試相比增長兩位數。您能否在該領域的基礎業務領域以及您如何看待 23 年的增長方面為我們提供幫助？

Yes, that's about right. I think that we see strong demand in those areas continuing through '23. Obviously, on the HCM side, which we haven't said specifically, but which is implicit. You're not going to see the macro uplift in terms of the number of employees on the payroll. That just is part of the recovery from the pandemic. That's normalized partly based on some of the things that Marty has said. But demand for all of the other management solution services is still very, very robust, I would say. And we're very bullish on all of those other businesses.

是的，這差不多。我認為我們看到這些領域的強勁需求持續到 23 年。顯然，在 HCM 方面，我們沒有具體說明，但這是隱含的。就工資單上的員工數量而言，您不會看到宏觀上的提升。這只是從大流行中恢復的一部分。這部分基於Marty所說的一些事情而正常化。但我想說，對所有其他管理解決方案服務的需求仍然非常非常強勁。我們非常看好所有其他業務。

Yes. The other thing that we haven't mentioned yet is that the work that we did, I mentioned employee retention tax credits and the paycheck protection loans, the employee retention tax credit service that we really -- the teams really got down this to a very tight process. And we were very successful in getting $8 billion between those credits and other credits to our clients. That has helped actually spur additional sales where they said, "Hey, now that you've given me all this value. I think the average employee retention tax credit was around $180,000 per pretty small business at times."

是的。我們還沒有提到的另一件事是我們所做的工作，我提到了員工留任稅收抵免和薪水保護貸款，我們真正的員工留任稅收抵免服務 - 團隊真的把它降到了一個非常嚴密的過程。我們非常成功地在這些信貸和其他信貸之間為我們的客戶獲得了 80 億美元。這實際上有助於刺激額外的銷售，他們說：“嘿，既然你已經給了我所有這些價值。我認為平均每個小企業的員工保留稅收抵免有時約為 180,000 美元。”

That generated a need to say, hey, let me try your HR service. Let me do some other things. And we see that continue -- that we'll be continue to have success with TC in this year. We're already off to a good start this year. So a lot of clients still finding a huge benefit from getting that government subsidy.

這產生了一個需要說，嘿，讓我試試你們的人力資源服務。讓我做一些其他的事情。我們看到這種情況仍在繼續——今年我們將繼續在 TC 上取得成功。今年我們已經有了一個良好的開端。因此，許多客戶仍然從獲得政府補貼中獲得巨大收益。

Our next question will come from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊的 Ramsey El-Assal。

I was wondering if you could give us an update on mix of your sales channels. I know that digital is clearly a highlight of the model. I'm just curious in terms of how the various contributions from your different sales channels have trended over time.

我想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關您的銷售渠道組合的最新信息。我知道數字化顯然是該模型的一大亮點。我只是好奇你們不同銷售渠道的各種貢獻隨著時間的推移是如何變化的。

John, do you want to?

約翰，你想要嗎？

Yes. Yes. Yes, as you can imagine, we've continued to use and seeing digital sales continue to increase, particularly in the pandemic. What I would tell you, both in terms of our surepayroll.com and paychex.com, we've seen good attach rate there and good traction there. But I would also say really across all of our sales channels, we've seen very strong demand characteristics. And we're finding clients doing more hybrid shopping. So starting off maybe on paychex.com and then ending up in a discussion about how we can help them with ERTC and then other products and services.

是的。是的。是的，正如您可以想像的那樣，我們繼續使用並看到數字銷售繼續增加，特別是在大流行期間。我要告訴你的是，就我們的surepayroll.com 和paychex.com 而言，我們在那裡看到了良好的附加率和良好的牽引力。但我還要說，在我們所有的銷售渠道中，我們都看到了非常強勁的需求特徵。我們發現客戶進行更多的混合購物。因此，可能從 paychex.com 開始，然後討論我們如何幫助他們使用 ERTC 以及其他產品和服務。

So I think our sales team has done a very good job of pivoting when the pandemic hit, adjusting to the new reality of how people are buying, and we continue to see and find ways that we can adopt that to drive not only more sales but also sales productivity. That's the other thing that we've seen really increase through this.

因此，我認為我們的銷售團隊在大流行來襲時做得非常好，適應了人們購買方式的新現實，我們繼續看到並找到可以採用的方法，不僅可以推動更多銷售，而且還有銷售生產力。這是我們通過這個看到真正增加的另一件事。

Okay. And also, if you wouldn't mind commenting on the competitive environment kind of coming out of the pandemic. I'm curious if you perceive any changes, whether you're running into fewer competitors out there in the marketplace or more? Or how would you characterize how the competitive landscape has evolved?

好的。而且，如果您不介意評論從大流行中走出來的競爭環境。我很好奇您是否察覺到任何變化，無論您在市場上遇到的競爭對手更少還是更多？或者您如何描述競爭格局的演變？

Yes, it's Marty. I'll start. I think we're seeing it fairly consistent, although I would say that things like the ability to offer the PEP plan in retirement, we were the first out of the gate with the PEP plan. We've had great success with the pooled employer plan for retirement. Other competitors have not offered that yet, not all competitors. So we've really jump the market on that one and did very well.

是的，是馬蒂。我會開始的。我認為我們看到它相當一致，儘管我會說像在退休時提供 PEP 計劃的能力，我們是第一個推出 PEP 計劃的人。我們的雇主退休計劃取得了巨大的成功。其他競爭對手還沒有提供，不是所有的競爭對手。所以我們真的在那個市場上跳躍並且做得很好。

I think, again, if you go back to us going to the client and prospect and saying, "Hey, we have employment retention tax credits that we think you're you are -- you can receive. And let me go through that with you." We've jumped the gun over a lot of competition with that. I'm surprised that the lack, frankly, of participation in that market. We've done very well with that, which has helped our sales and bring value to prospects and current clients.

我想，再一次，如果你回到我們的客戶和潛在客戶那裡並說，“嘿，我們有我們認為你是你的就業保留稅收抵免 - 你可以收到。讓我通過你。”我們已經跳過了很多競爭。坦率地說，我對缺乏參與該市場感到驚訝。我們在這方面做得很好，這有助於我們的銷售並為潛在客戶和現有客戶帶來價值。

So I think, generally, the competitive environment is the same, but actually -- but I also think that some of our product improvements and introductions have really positioned us a little bit stronger. I think particularly in the mid-market. Mid-market that we haven't been as strong. I think if you went back 4 or 5 years ago is we wanted to be the introduction of the products over the last 3 years really positioned us to have a really strong sales response this last year, and it's continuing into the first quarter. So we're feeling very good about the mid-market in particular.

所以我認為，一般來說，競爭環境是相同的，但實際上——但我也認為我們的一些產品改進和引入確實讓我們變得更強大了。我認為尤其是在中端市場。我們沒有那麼強大的中端市場。我認為，如果您回到 4 或 5 年前，我們是否希望在過去 3 年中推出產品，這確實使我們在去年獲得了非常強勁的銷售反應，並且一直持續到第一季度。因此，我們尤其對中端市場感覺非常好。

Our next question will come from Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

Just wanted to start on HR management. I know you mentioned increased attach rates there and wondering if you can provide any quantification perhaps on that front for certain products that are driving that dynamic?

只是想從人力資源管理開始。我知道您在那裡提到了增加的附加率，並想知道您是否可以在這方面為某些推動這種動態的產品提供任何量化？

Yes, Jason, we'll update the number of clients in the 10-K. So you'll see that we're approaching -- we're between 40,000 and 50,000 clients. You'll see a pretty strong double-digit growth in the number of clients there, too. We'll give you an exact number that you can look at when we file the 10-K in a few weeks.

是的，傑森，我們將更新 10-K 中的客戶數量。所以你會看到我們正在接近——我們的客戶在 40,000 到 50,000 之間。你會看到那裡的客戶數量也有相當強勁的兩位數增長。我們會給您一個確切的數字，您可以在幾週後提交 10-K 時查看該數字。

And John mentioned, I think that we hit over 2 million work-site employees in the HR space between our products and HR outsourcing. And also a great attachment and things like time and attendance. So, we've been -- even something that we don't talk about as much time and attendance. We've introduced the new latest technology, iris scan clocks. These are clocks whether you're wearing a mask or not, you don't -- they're not touch. They're kiosks that you just use your iris, your eyes to scan, between that and the mobile punch in and punch out, we've seen very good attachment in time and attendance.

約翰提到，我認為我們在產品和人力資源外包之間的人力資源領域打擊了超過 200 萬工作現場員工。還有一個很好的依戀和時間和出勤率之類的東西。所以，我們一直 - 甚至是我們沒有談論太多時間和出勤率的事情。我們推出了最新的技術，虹膜掃描時鐘。無論你是否戴口罩，這些都是時鐘，你沒有——它們沒有被觸摸。它們是您只需使用虹膜、眼睛進行掃描的信息亭，在它與移動打卡和打卡之間，我們已經看到了在時間和出勤方面非常好的依戀。

When you have time and attendance and Flex you now can use Pre-Check. So Pre-Check is now sending a note as I said to employees and saying, okay, we've got you recording this many hours of working. This is your check, do you see any issues with it? If you don't see issues, let us know that you confirmed it. If you have issues, let your employer know. We're seeing about 5% of the time that they're finding some issue that the employer, their employer didn't catch something right. And that's resolving the issue before the payrolls cut. That is a huge benefit.

當您有時間和出勤率和 Flex 時，您現在可以使用 Pre-Check。因此，Pre-Check 現在正像我對員工所說的那樣發送一張便條，並說，好吧，我們已經讓你記錄了這麼多小時的工作。這是您的支票，您發現它有什麼問題嗎？如果您沒有看到問題，請告訴我們您已確認。如果您有問題，請告知您的雇主。我們看到大約 5% 的時間他們發現了雇主、他們的雇主沒有發現正確的問題。這就是在裁員之前解決問題。這是一個巨大的好處。

So you're seeing more attachment and use again by employees of clients. And so the attachment of time and attendance and Pre-Check and retirement, all those things are making better retention, and we're seeing attachment go up.

因此，您會看到更多的附件並再次被客戶的員工使用。因此，時間和考勤、預檢和退休的依戀，所有這些都在提高保留率，我們看到依戀在上升。

Okay. Wanted to ask a follow-up just on float income. It looks like that's forecasted to be up about $30 million year-over-year. And assuming you get a 100% flow-through on that, it looks like that would drive about 60 bps of margin expansion if our math is right, and that would basically get you to the midpoint or roughly the midpoint of your margin guide for fiscal '23, which would kind of suggest flattish margins in the core business. So I wanted to check on all that, if you agree with that general assessment.

好的。想問一個關於浮動收入的後續行動。看起來預計將同比增長約 3000 萬美元。假設你得到了 100% 的流通，如果我們的數學是正確的，看起來這將推動大約 60 個基點的保證金擴張，這基本上會讓你達到財政保證金指南的中點或大致中點'23，這表明核心業務的利潤率持平。因此，如果您同意該一般評估，我想檢查所有這些。

And also, I guess just wondering if you can remind us a bit on duration of the portfolio, just given the magnitude and trajectory of rate hikes, perhaps some would have thought even a bigger increase in float income for this upcoming year?

而且，我想只是想知道您是否可以提醒我們一下投資組合的持續時間，鑑於加息的幅度和軌跡，也許有些人會認為來年浮動收入的增長會更大？

Yes. Interesting math. I think I wouldn't probably dispute the math, Jason. I would say that the only comment I would make with respect to looking at the business that way is that when you put a plan together, what you're doing is making choices around a lot of different investments even in the plan where we choose to increase margins 50 basis points. There are investment choices being made in that process. So while I think your math is probably not far off, that doesn't indicate that there isn't leverage -- underlying leverage in the business. It's just that we chose to deploy that in different parts of the business could have had greater flow through. Some of it was some of the choices that we made with respect to wages and other items that we discussed previously.

是的。有趣的數學。我想我可能不會對數學提出異議，傑森。我想說的是，我對以這種方式看待業務的唯一評論是，當您制定計劃時，您所做的是圍繞許多不同的投資做出選擇，即使在我們選擇的計劃中也是如此將利潤率提高 50 個基點。在這個過程中做出了投資選擇。因此，雖然我認為您的數學可能並不遙遠，但這並不表明沒有槓桿 - 業務中的潛在槓桿。只是我們選擇將其部署在業務的不同部分可能會有更大的流量。其中一些是我們之前討論過的關於工資和其他項目的一些選擇。

The second thing I'd say on everything we do, especially in the area of how we look at the portfolio, there's an element of conservatism in the way we think about it. This is an unusual year in the sense that the Fed has said certain things. They change it, but they've been saying certain things and we have to incorporate the outlook that they have given to the extent that, that changes, then we'd come back and have different discussions, which could in some ways, impact other parts of the P&L. But we'll have to walk through that when we get there. We have ways to get more leverage if we choose to use it.

我要對我們所做的一切說第二件事，特別是在我們如何看待投資組合方面，我們思考它的方式存在保守主義元素。從美聯儲說了某些事情的意義上說，這是不尋常的一年。他們改變了它，但他們一直在說某些事情，我們必須將他們給出的觀點納入到改變的範圍內，然後我們會回來進行不同的討論，這可能在某些方面影響其他損益表的一部分。但是當我們到達那裡時，我們將不得不經歷那個。如果我們選擇使用它，我們就有辦法獲得更多的影響力。

Then the final point is that right now, the duration is a little bit over 3, and our portfolio is positioned about half and half short term and long term. We have a lot of levers to pull there if we want to adjust duration on the portfolio either to go longer or even shorter if we wanted to. So I wouldn't quibble with your math. I just would quibble with your conclusion a little bit about the underlying leverage in the business.

最後一點是，現在，久期略高於 3，我們的投資組合定位在短期和長期的一半左右。如果我們想調整投資組合的久期以延長或縮短，我們有很多槓桿可以拉到那裡。所以我不會對你的數學提出質疑。我只是想對你關於業務潛在槓桿的結論提出一點質疑。

Our next question will come from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Bryan Keane。

Efrain, how would you compare the preliminary guidance for fiscal year '23. I think you gave last quarter, high single-digit revenue growth, the 50 basis points of margin expansion with the detailed guidance. Just wanted to figure out if there were some adjustments you made either due to macro or some other factors?

Efrain，您如何比較 23 財年的初步指導。我認為你給出了上個季度的高個位數收入增長、50 個基點的利潤率擴張以及詳細的指導。只是想弄清楚您是否由於宏觀或其他因素而進行了一些調整？

Yes. I'd say, Bryan, kind of, I was looking at it, I think we said approximately 7 or so. So this is a little bit stronger. The thing that I called out at 3Q was we knew ERTC was not going to recur. I called that out as 1% of this year's revenue. So that was a little bit of a hurdle that we were going to have to overcome. I think we've overcome that to a significant degree, although it won't be as high as it was last year.

是的。我會說，布萊恩，有點，我在看它，我想我們說大約 7 個左右。所以這個有點強。我在 3Q 呼籲的事情是我們知道 ERTC 不會再次發生。我稱之為今年收入的 1%。所以這是我們必須克服的一個小障礙。我認為我們已經在很大程度上克服了這一點，儘管它不會像去年那樣高。

The other factor really was around what happens with employment levels. That really is the tough part. Marty called it out. There's demand there for people, but they are unfortunately not as many people to fill those jobs. So what we're seeing, by the way, in the market is more creative use of things like part-time employees to fill jobs that otherwise would have been filled by full time.

另一個因素實際上與就業水平有關。這確實是困難的部分。馬蒂喊出來了。那裡對人有需求，但不幸的是，他們沒有那麼多人來填補這些工作。因此，順便說一句，我們在市場上看到的是更有創意地使用兼職員工之類的東西來填補原本應該由全職員工填補的工作。

That's not a bad thing for us from a wage perspective, but it's a little bit different than the way maybe we would have thought about it 2 or 3 years ago. And then the final point is that, look, the Fed and you are looking at this just like we are. There's a lot of variability there. Let's just put it that way. And so we haven't assumed anything beyond about 3.25% increase. The back half of the year is going to be very interesting from our perspective just in terms of what happens with whether there's a soft landing or not. So we've tried to create a plan that gets us through what we understand the current environment to be.

從工資的角度來看，這對我們來說並不是一件壞事，但這與我們在 2 或 3 年前可能會想到的方式有點不同。最後一點是，看，美聯儲和你正在像我們一樣看待這個問題。那裡有很多可變性。讓我們這麼說吧。因此，我們沒有假設任何超過 3.25% 的增長。從我們的角度來看，就軟著陸是否會發生什麼而言，今年下半年將非常有趣。因此，我們試圖制定一個計劃，讓我們了解我們所了解的當前環境。

And then so this set of this guidance that you see here is a little bit stronger on the interest side than I was -- than we were when we said this in March, April, because the Fed's changed some of its thinking. Having said all of that, that word salad basically said a lot of stuff could change. So we'll update you. But I would say in terms of the macro, it's probably as changeable as any of the 11 or 12 plans I've been involved with here.

然後，你在這裡看到的這套指導在利息方面比我強一點——比我們在 3 月、4 月所說的時候要強一些，因為美聯儲改變了一些想法。說了這麼多，沙拉這個詞基本上說很多東西可以改變。所以我們會更新你。但我會說，就宏觀而言，它可能與我在這裡參與的 11 或 12 個計劃中的任何一個一樣多變。

Got it. Got it. And then just at a high level, as there's a lot of worry about a movement towards an economic slowdown and a recession. How does the model hold up just on a high level in the recessionary environment? Or what are some of the variables that could impact the model if we do see a recession in the U.S. and globally?

知道了。知道了。然後只是在高水平，因為人們對經濟放緩和衰退有很多擔憂。該模型如何在衰退環境中保持高水平？或者，如果我們確實看到美國和全球經濟衰退，哪些變量可能會影響模型？

Yes. I think we called out in the comments, I think, in Marty's where we would see it obviously is you'd see less clients processing. That's the first part that you'd see even before you saw a slowdown in demand. But there's an interesting offset, Bryan, that we saw during the pandemic is that it actually sometimes retention picks up in those kinds of environments. So what's the net-net of that? I don't have a crystal ball on that. I think it would help to offset some of the softness on the revenue side.

是的。我認為我們在評論中呼籲，我認為，在 Marty's 中，我們顯然會看到你會看到更少的客戶處理。這是您在看到需求放緩之前就看到的第一部分。但是，Bryan，我們在大流行期間看到的一個有趣的抵消是，實際上有時在這種環境中保留率會上升。那麼它的網絡是什麼？我沒有水晶球。我認為這將有助於抵消收入方面的一些疲軟。

And it depends also what's happening with interest rates. If interest rates remain at current levels or because of the slowdown, the Fed decides, well, we're going to just ratchet them down. That would have an immediate impact from a revenue standpoint.

這也取決於利率的變化。如果利率保持在當前水平或由於經濟放緩，美聯儲決定，好吧，我們將逐步降低利率。從收入的角度來看，這將立即產生影響。

I think if it's gradual, we'll manage through it. And I think we certainly will manage through it on -- we have a good shot at managing through on the bottom line. I think that we're prepared to handle that. If it's abrupt, it's really tough to manage through those kinds of situations.

我認為，如果它是漸進的，我們會設法克服它。而且我認為我們肯定會通過它來管理 - 我們在管理底線方面有很好的機會。我認為我們已經準備好處理這個問題。如果它很突然，那麼在這種情況下管理起來真的很困難。

Our next question will come from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Andrew Nicholas 和 William Blair。

I wanted to follow up on that last comment you made, Efrain. Maybe spend a bit more time, if you could on the flexibility of the expense base in a more challenging economic environment, where are some of the areas where you have a bit more leeway to manage that bottom line relative to an environment that you've been in here over the past year or 2 where margins are at very strong levels?

我想跟進你最後的評論，Efrain。如果您可以在更具挑戰性的經濟環境中考慮費用基礎的靈活性，也許可以花更多的時間，相對於您所擁有的環境，您在哪些領域有更多的餘地來管理底線在過去的一兩年裡，利潤率處於非常強勁的水平？

Well, I'd say 3 things. So the first thing is, in an environment like this, you have to have the appropriate level of areas in the P&L to go if you see a slowdown. And we assume that we'll manage through the current environment as it is. And if it gets a little bit worse, we can handle that. So we've taken appropriate precautions is what I would say on that. That's the first thing.

好吧，我想說3件事。所以第一件事是，在這樣的環境中，如果你看到放緩，你必須在損益表中有適當水平的區域。我們假設我們將按原樣管理當前環境。如果情況變得更糟，我們可以處理。所以我們已經採取了適當的預防措施，這就是我要說的。這是第一件事。

The second thing is that we have a unique model where we -- and we do this quite a bit. We don't talk about it, but we do it. To the extent that the client base doesn't flex up in the way we do, we simply don't do the hiring that we expect to do. So if we don't do the hiring, then you get the benefit of the 60% to 65% of -- on the 60%, 65% of the wages that are in the plan.

第二件事是我們有一個獨特的模型，我們 - 我們經常這樣做。我們不談論它，但我們做到了。如果客戶群沒有按照我們的方式靈活調整，我們根本不會進行我們期望的招聘。因此，如果我們不進行招聘，那麼您將獲得計劃中 60% 到 65% 工資的 60% 到 65% 的收益。

And then the third thing is we have flexibility in terms of adjustments on the portfolio to address duration depending on what we're seeing in terms of the macro environment. I think with those tools, if you will, in the toolkit, and there are others, by the way. We should be able to manage through at least any of the environments that are right in front of us.

然後第三件事是我們在調整投資組合方面具有靈活性，以解決久期問題，具體取決於我們在宏觀環境方面所看到的情況。我認為使用這些工具，如果你願意的話，在工具包中，順便說一句，還有其他工具。我們至少應該能夠管理我們面前的任何環境。

Now there are certain environments that could improve a lot more challenging. I'd just point this out. One thing is that history is no guide. But in terms of precedent, I remember being here in April of '20, when everyone was gone and the stock went down to $48. And everyone thought that we were not going to be able to manage through. I would say, history has shown that to be incorrect.

現在有一些環境可以改進，更具挑戰性。我只想指出這一點。一件事是歷史不是指南。但就先例而言，我記得 20 年 4 月在這裡，當時所有人都走了，股價跌至 48 美元。每個人都認為我們無法度過難關。我想說，歷史證明這是不正確的。

Yes. And I think the other thing, during some of those times that could -- during -- depending on the recession, there will be a need for even more need for some -- many clients for HR support. How do I manage my cost down? How do I -- and I think we showed during the pandemic that we could respond to that very well. So we're really quite broad in the way that if it's -- the economy is going fast and you need to hire and you need growth and you need to help with your HR, we're there to help you with the technology and the people to support you. If things turn and it's a recession and you got to manage people out or cost down, we have the products, the technology and the people to help you do that as well.

是的。我認為另一件事是，在某些時期，可能——在——取決於經濟衰退期間，將需要更多——許多客戶提供人力資源支持。如何降低成本？我該怎麼做——我認為我們在大流行期間表明我們可以很好地應對這一點。所以我們的方式非常廣泛，如果經濟發展迅速，你需要招聘，你需要增長，你需要幫助你的人力資源，我們在那裡幫助你技術和人們支持你。如果情況發生轉變，經濟衰退，你必須管理人員或降低成本，我們也有產品、技術和人員來幫助你做到這一點。

And I think we showed that as Efrain said in the pandemic when people thought, geez, I don't know, will they be able to keep their margins, we did extremely well. And so we've been able -- we've learned a lot from that and frankly, probably got a few more levers out of the pandemic that we could use during a recessionary period, which is one, obviously, not hiring, as Efrain mentioned, but also drive some other costs out through the fact that we have very remote hybrid workforces now that give you more flexibility even than before and where you're hired to.

而且我認為我們表明，正如 Efrain 在大流行中所說的那樣，當人們認為，天哪，我不知道，他們是否能夠保持利潤，我們做得非常好。所以我們已經能夠——我們從中學到了很多，坦率地說，我們可能從大流行中獲得了更多的槓桿，我們可以在經濟衰退期間使用，這顯然不是招聘，就像 Efrain提到，但也可以通過我們現在擁有非常偏遠的混合勞動力這一事實來降低其他一些成本，甚至比以前和你被雇用的地方都給你更多的靈活性。

Great. No, that's all very helpful. And then for the fourth quarter, just a quick question there that I want to clean up. Can you talk a little bit more on kind of the performance of the PEO business specifically relative to the insurance within that segment?

偉大的。不，這一切都非常有幫助。然後在第四季度，我想澄清一個簡短的問題。您能否詳細談談 PEO 業務相對於該領域保險的表現？

So do you mean insurance in the PEO or insurance as part of the PEO revenue streams?

那麼，您是指 PEO 中的保險還是作為 PEO 收入流一部分的保險？

Yes, the latter.

是的，後者。

Okay. I just want to...

好的。我只想...

Yes. Do you want to take it?

是的。你想拿走嗎？

Yes, I think -- so just so I understand the question, you're talking about the attachment of insurance within the PEO and how the influence of -- is performing?

是的，我認為 - 所以我理解這個問題，你是在談論 PEO 內部的保險附加以及它的影響 - 是如何執行的？

Yes. I guess I'm just -- within that segment, if you could just kind of break down the PEO business relative to the insurance business on a stand-alone basis. That would be helpful.

是的。我想我只是 - 在那個細分市場中，如果你可以在獨立的基礎上分解相對於保險業務的 PEO 業務。那會很有幫助。

Yes. So I would say this. I think in the last call, we talked about it, the PO business continues to perform very well, double-digit growth. Insurance slightly below that growth rate, again, but that's really the tale of 2 cities. I would say, again, back to what we said, strong demand for clients to increase benefits to attract and keep employees they have, particularly in the small segment, where they're trying to compete against larger employers, they have to be able to put together a portfolio of benefits that are going to attract and keep their employees. So in the health and benefits, we continue to see good growth there and good demand there. P&C, again, it's been a soft market for a long time. So that's a little bit more of a rate issue, but still see good attachment there -- historical attachment that we've always seen in our base. So still strong performance at the PEO, insurance right behind it, predominantly led by the demand for health and benefits.

是的。所以我會這麼說。我認為在上次電話會議中，我們談到了它，PO 業務繼續表現非常好，兩位數的增長。保險業的增長率再次略低於該增長率，但這確實是兩個城市的故事。我想說，再次回到我們所說的，對客戶增加福利以吸引和留住員工的強烈需求，特別是在小部門，他們試圖與更大的雇主競爭，他們必須能夠將一系列福利組合在一起，這些福利將吸引並留住員工。因此，在健康和福利方面，我們繼續看到那裡的良好增長和良好的需求。 P&C 再次，長期以來，它一直是一個疲軟的市場。所以這更像是一個利率問題，但仍然可以看到良好的依戀——我們一直在我們的基地看到的歷史依戀。因此，PEO 的表現依然強勁，緊隨其後的是保險，主要由對健康和福利的需求主導。

And the other thing I mentioned in my comments was the broad -- in the PEO, we worked really hard, John's team to broaden the PEO offering. So it's not just about health and dental, envision now. It's really -- as John said, this broader offering that the PEO can bring to small businesses, in particular, to say, "Hey, you can offer other things in insurance, and you can offer more mental health support that is very hot right now, and you can offer other plans that you would not be able to do by yourself." So that is really supported the PEO growth with the creativity that the team has shown in the offerings that we can give them.

我在評論中提到的另一件事是廣泛的——在 PEO 中，我們非常努力地工作，John 的團隊擴大了 PEO 的範圍。因此，現在設想的不僅僅是健康和牙科。真的——正如約翰所說，PEO 可以為小企業帶來更廣泛的產品，特別是說，“嘿，你可以在保險中提供其他東西，你可以提供更多非常熱門的心理健康支持現在，您可以提供其他您自己無法完成的計劃。”因此，團隊在我們可以提供的產品中表現出的創造力確實支持了 PEO 的增長。

Yes. And that's what I thought maybe the other part of the question was the attachment that we saw in the PEO and the attachment in general, we're seeing from our clients, as Marty said, 401(k), health and benefits, gravitating towards these technology tools that they want to be able to provide their employees. Those things have really been across the board very, very well received. And so in our comments, we stated one of the things that we've seen now is the opportunity for us to even add to that attachment. So when you think about now, we're going to add a whole other set of voluntary benefits that we're going to go back and be able to offer to all of our PEO and all of our insurance clients over the course of the open enrollment period, which will start in October and those all will generate revenue.

是的。這就是我認為問題的另一部分可能是我們在 PEO 中看到的附件以及我們從客戶那裡看到的一般附件，正如 Marty 所說，401(k)、健康和福利，傾向於他們希望能夠為員工提供這些技術工具。這些東西真的很受歡迎，非常受歡迎。因此，在我們的評論中，我們陳述了我們現在看到的一件事是我們甚至有機會添加到該附件中。因此，當您現在考慮時，我們將添加一整套其他自願福利，我們將返回並能夠在公開賽期間向我們所有的 PEO 和我們所有的保險客戶提供入學期將從 10 月開始，所有這些都將產生收入。

So again, offering more benefits to the clients and their employees is another way that not only does that help the retention, but it also helps the revenue as well. We're seeing good demand in the marketplace there.

因此，再次為客戶及其員工提供更多福利是另一種方式，不僅有助於留住員工，還有助於增加收入。我們看到那裡的市場需求良好。

Yes. Sorry, Andrew, the -- as John said, the revenue growth on the insurance side absolutely is lower than based on the fact that workers' comp continues to be a very, very soft market over a number of years.

是的。抱歉，安德魯，正如約翰所說，保險方面的收入增長絕對低於基於工人薪酬多年來仍然是一個非常非常疲軟的市場這一事實。

No, that's helpful. You did a much better job answering it than I did asking it. So I appreciate it.

不，這很有幫助。你回答它比我問它做得好得多。所以我很感激。

Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Marty, maybe I know you talked a little bit on our recession and, Efrain, you gave a good answer on how you might manage a business. But I'm wondering, was it based on some of the slowdowns you've seen. Would you manage Paychex any different? I mean, would you think that you could continue hiring or investing, would this time be different than in the past based on what you've learned?

馬蒂，也許我知道你談到了我們的經濟衰退，埃弗蘭，你就如何管理企業給出了很好的答案。但我想知道，它是否基於您所看到的一些放緩。你會管理 Paychex 嗎？我的意思是，你認為你可以繼續招聘或投資嗎，根據你所學到的知識，這次會與過去不同嗎？

Well, Kartik, right now, as I mentioned, we're not really seeing that slowdown. So yes, I mean, we really got behind at the beginning of last year in hiring because it was difficult on the service side in particular. And we actually made great headway in the last half of the year, John and the HR team to get ahead of that, and we're actually overstaffed right now a little bit going into the fiscal year. So we're very pleased with that. So we're making still strong hiring decisions. The investments that we made in compensation and benefits are attracting. Now we're getting back on track and attracting more not only service but sales individuals and our retention is looking better.

好吧，Kartik，現在，正如我所提到的，我們並沒有真正看到這種放緩。所以，是的，我的意思是，去年年初我們在招聘方面確實落後了，因為在服務方面尤其困難。我們實際上在今年下半年取得了很大進展，約翰和人力資源團隊在這方面取得了領先，而且我們現在實際上在進入財政年度時人手過多。所以我們對此非常滿意。因此，我們仍在做出強有力的招聘決定。我們在薪酬和福利方面的投資很有吸引力。現在我們正在重回正軌，不僅吸引了更多的服務人員，而且吸引了更多的銷售人員，我們的留存率看起來也更好了。

So yes, I don't think -- I think what we learned, as I mentioned out of the pandemic, though, was that we could manage in a lot of different ways and more remote and hybrid work, handling sales differently. There's more flexibility in where those sales forces are and how they're selling, more digital sales are coming in through the marketplace, and we're well prepared for that. So yes, I think you're always learning, and we certainly learned during the pandemic, and we were very successful. It's all about having the right people in place and making those right decisions, and I think we've made some good ones. Obviously, we're very pleased with the record-breaking year that we had, and we're certainly well set up for fiscal '23 to have another one so.

所以，是的，我不認為 - 我認為，正如我在大流行中提到的那樣，我們學到的是，我們可以以許多不同的方式管理更多的遠程和混合工作，以不同的方式處理銷售。這些銷售人員的位置和銷售方式具有更大的靈活性，更多的數字銷售正在通過市場進入，我們為此做好了充分的準備。所以是的，我認為你一直在學習，我們當然在大流行期間學到了東西，而且我們非常成功。這一切都是為了讓合適的人到位並做出正確的決定，我認為我們已經做出了一些好的決定。顯然，我們對破紀錄的一年感到非常滿意，而且我們肯定已經為 23 財年做好了準備，可以再創紀錄。

And then just, Efrain, one of the areas I think you've had success in is the programs like California kind of retirement mandates that they've had for SMBs. I'm wondering how successful that plan has been and maybe you can talk about if you continue to expect growth in that business.

然後，Efrain，我認為您在其中取得成功的領域之一是他們為 SMB 制定的加州退休計劃之類的計劃。我想知道該計劃有多成功，也許您可以談談您是否繼續期望該業務增長。

Yes, I'll take that, Kartik. It's Marty. I think that was very successful. We were a little early on some of the advertising last summer because the mandate -- businesses don't always respond to mandates that are going to have a penalty effect of really this month. And so we were a little bit early on that. But what we found was the advertising that we did had really generated a lot of understanding that Paychex is a retirement provider to small business. And even fighting against free, California had a very basic retirement IRA plan for free. We've done very well. So retirement, we've had the fastest growth in retirement in -- retirement sales in California, obviously, in our history. And so we see the approach that we made there, maybe we've learned a little on timing of marketing and advertising. But the approach that we made there has been very successful, and we think that will certainly carry to other states and maybe even a federal mandate if it comes out on retirement as well in the Secure Act and so forth.

是的，我會接受的，Kartik。是馬蒂。我認為那是非常成功的。去年夏天我們在一些廣告上有點早，因為任務——企業並不總是對本月會產生懲罰效果的任務做出反應。所以我們在這方面有點早。但我們發現，我們所做的廣告確實讓人們認識到 Paychex 是小型企業的退休提供者。即使反對免費，加州也有一個非常基本的免費退休 IRA 計劃。我們做得很好。所以退休，我們的退休收入增長最快——顯然，在我們的歷史上，加利福尼亞州的退休銷售。所以我們看到了我們在那裡所做的方法，也許我們在營銷和廣告的時機方面學到了一些東西。但是我們在那裡採取的方法非常成功，我們認為這肯定會適用於其他州，甚至可能是聯邦授權，如果它在退休時以及《安全法案》等中出現。

Our next question will come from Peter Christiansen with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Peter Christiansen。

I was just wondering, I know you called it out a little bit before activity in the staffing industry, your staffing clients. I know sometimes that's been a leading indicator at both ends of the cycle. Just wondering if you could -- if we can dig into a little bit of the color you're seeing there and maybe some implications that you're thinking about around that.

我只是想知道，我知道您在從事人力資源行業活動之前，您的人力資源客戶就已經說過了。我知道有時這是周期兩端的領先指標。只是想知道您是否可以-如果我們可以深入了解您在那裡看到的顏色以及您正在考慮的一些含義。

Yes. That's a really interesting question, and some of you are staffing analysts. So I'd defer a little bit to you. But here's what we do just to level set with everyone. What we do, and we've had a very, very successful year this year is provide funding for typically small, medium-sized, some larger staffing firms. So we have a window into what is happening with staffing trends in the business. And right now, the staffing businesses are doing very, very well. So there's a lot of demand for services, and you can argue, well, why is that? It seems that in portions of the economy -- certain portions of the economy in skilled labor, you're seeing a lot of demand. Many of you probably know this, but skilled occupations like nursing and other technical disciplines. There's a lot of temp labor that is used in that part of the business. But what's been surprising, I would say, over the last 3 to 6 months has been the rebound in what's called light industrial. So that's more typically blue collar work.

是的。這是一個非常有趣的問題，你們中的一些人正在招聘分析師。所以我會推遲一點。但這就是我們所做的只是為了與每個人保持水平。我們所做的，以及今年非常非常成功的一年，是為通常是小型、中型和一些較大的人員配備公司提供資金。因此，我們有一個窗口可以了解業務中的人員配備趨勢正在發生什麼。現在，人員配備業務做得非常非常好。所以對服務有很多需求，你可以爭辯說，為什麼會這樣？似乎在經濟的某些部分——技術勞動力的某些經濟部分，你看到了很多需求。你們中的許多人可能都知道這一點，但是像護理和其他技術學科這樣的熟練職業。在這部分業務中使用了大量的臨時工。但令人驚訝的是，在過去的 3 到 6 個月裡，所謂的輕工業出現了反彈。所以這是更典型的藍領工作。

It's -- the demand is robust. And it's projected to continue to do that through the end of the year. It could be argued that perhaps people are starting to position themselves for more flexibility on the workforce, but we don't have any indications of that. What we know is that the number in absolute terms of temp workers is up and that we're benefiting from that demand.

這是 - 需求強勁。預計到今年年底將繼續這樣做。有人可能會爭辯說，也許人們開始將自己定位為勞動力的更多靈活性，但我們沒有任何跡象表明這一點。我們所知道的是，臨時工的絕對數量在增加，我們正從這種需求中受益。

That's helpful, Efrain. And then again, back on things like the PEP plan, where you just had phenomenal growth there. And I realize like products attached products like that, certainly help things like retention and value-based pricing for sure. But is there any way you could frame what type of contribution like a product like that has had to overall growth, I guess, in the last year.

這很有幫助，埃弗拉恩。再說一次，回到像 PEP 計劃這樣的事情上，在那裡你剛剛取得了驚人的增長。我意識到像這樣的產品附加產品，肯定有助於保留和基於價值的定價。但是，有什麼方法可以確定像這樣的產品對整體增長的貢獻類型，我猜，在去年。

Yes. So I called it out because I think it's fair to say it's not -- it's -- I'm going to characterize it 2 ways. The first way I'd say it's been a little bit above 1% of revenue for the year. So it obviously was a great product and -- but I would highlight something that Marty said. The great thing about a product like that is the profound impact it has on clients. And we had a review of it. If you saw the stories they're really, really important. And they're important not just because you feel good about them. That's good. It's good to feel good. But the reality is that it had a lot of impact on the clients that got it and the testimonials are amazing.

是的。所以我把它叫出來是因為我認為公平地說它不是——它是——我將用兩種方式來描述它。我想說的第一種方式是略高於今年收入的 1%。所以它顯然是一個很棒的產品——但我會強調馬蒂所說的一些事情。像這樣的產品的偉大之處在於它對客戶產生了深遠的影響。我們對其進行了審查。如果你看過這些故事，它們真的非常重要。它們很重要，不僅僅是因為你對它們感覺良好。那挺好的。感覺良好是件好事。但現實情況是，它對獲得它的客戶產生了很大的影響，並且推薦信令人驚嘆。

But I think the second part of it is Marty mentioned that there's still opportunity in the base. So we expect that this year, we're going to continue to get benefit, not the same level of benefit we got last year, but we'll continue to get...

但我認為第二部分是馬蒂提到基地仍有機會。因此，我們預計今年，我們將繼續獲得收益，而不是我們去年獲得的相同水平的收益，但我們將繼續獲得......

Efrain, just to clarify, I think you're talking about ERTC, he might have said PEP. Did you say PEP, Peter?

Efrain，澄清一下，我認為你在談論 ERTC，他可能會說 PEP。你說的是PEP嗎，彼得？

Yes, PEP.

是的，PEP。

Okay. I'm sorry about the -- I apologize. Yes. PEP is a little bit different. So the final point I would say on that simply is that whether it's PEP or ERTC, there's a set or a suite of services that we provide to clients that really are very important in terms of cementing the relationship with Paychex. So this year's ERTC, last year it was PEP. We're constantly on the lookout for opportunities to cement that relationship with clients. So that's what I'd say. Sorry I thought we were talking about ERTC. I apologize.

好的。我很抱歉——我道歉。是的。 PEP 有點不同。所以我要說的最後一點是，無論是 PEP 還是 ERTC，我們為客戶提供的一套或一套服務對於鞏固與 Paychex 的關係非常重要。所以今年的 ERTC，去年是 PEP。我們一直在尋找機會來鞏固與客戶的關係。這就是我要說的。抱歉，我以為我們在談論 ERTC。我道歉。

Yes. I would also probably add to that, Peter. Those things are cousins in somewhat of an innovation machine that we're driving with our nearly 700 HR professionals who are out there talking to our clients on a daily basis. And I say that because for whatever reason, other companies are deciding not to be as supportive in these tax credit areas, and in the PEP plan, which is really resonating with small business owners because of some of the complexities that it reduces from a traditional 401(k) plan.

是的。我也可能會補充一點，彼得。這些東西在某種程度上是我們與近 700 名人力資源專業人員一起駕駛的創新機器的表親，他們每天都在外面與我們的客戶交談。我說，因為無論出於何種原因，其他公司都決定不在這些稅收抵免領域和 PEP 計劃中提供支持，這確實引起了小企業主的共鳴，因為它比傳統方法減少了一些複雜性401（k）計劃。

And so again, I look at this very closely. Those are 2 products that when I look at the clients that are attaching those, we see a measurable improvement in our overall retention and more ability to price, price as you said, the price value package that we can get from those clients is much good as well. And they're appreciative because there's not a lot of other places they can go to get that assisted.

因此，我再次仔細研究了這一點。那是兩種產品，當我查看附加這些產品的客戶時，我們看到我們的整體保留率有了顯著提高，而且定價能力更強也是。他們很感激，因為沒有很多其他地方可以幫助他們。

So it's a combination of us leveraging our technology and then also having the individuals in the field to help really advise and support them in building a package and getting that done that's really resonating. And again, they're just real appreciative I mean, Efrain mentioned the stories. I mean I have people calling me and thanking me for saving their business with ERTC and we hear the stories about how well the PEP plan is helping our clients.

所以這是我們利用我們的技術的結合，然後還讓該領域的個人幫助真正地建議和支持他們構建一個包並完成這個真正引起共鳴的事情。再說一次，他們真的很感激我的意思是，Efrain 提到了這些故事。我的意思是有人打電話給我，感謝我通過 ERTC 挽救了他們的業務，我們聽到了有關 PEP 計劃如何幫助我們的客戶的故事。

Yes. Just sorry about that. I heard PEP and I interpreted to be ERTC. The other thing I would say is that the quantification of that is that it's part of the growth in management solutions. If you take what happened to our retirement business, pre-PEP and post-PEP, we took that business from kind of mid-single digits to upper single digits and approaching 10% growth on a revenue basis. And it's been really driven on the back of the ability to offer a PEP solution. So sorry about the digression in the ERTC.

是的。只是對此感到抱歉。我聽到了 PEP，我解釋為 ERTC。我要說的另一件事是，量化它是管理解決方案增長的一部分。如果您將我們的退休業務（PEP 前和 PEP 後）發生的情況來看，我們將該業務從中個位數提高到上個位數，並在收入基礎上接近 10% 的增長。它的真正驅動力是提供 PEP 解決方案的能力。對於 ERTC 的題外話，我深表歉意。

No. No worries. That's great color. And John, I really like the innovation machine cousins. I might steal that. Last one for me. Efrain, you mentioned it earlier before or maybe John did price-to-value losses have been really minimal but you are seeing ramping up discounting promotional activity from some peers in the market. Just overall, your sense for -- across the market for pricing elasticity and whether that's different pre-pandemic versus today?

不，不用擔心。這顏色真好。還有約翰，我真的很喜歡創新機器的表親。我可能會偷那個。最後一個給我。 Efrain，您之前提到過，或者 John 確實認為價格對價值的損失確實很小，但您看到市場上一些同行的折扣促銷活動正在增加。總體而言，您對整個市場的定價彈性以及大流行前與今天是否不同？

I think it feels -- we feel pretty good, obviously, about prices. I think Efrain mentioned earlier on the price increase, toward the higher end, but it depends on the product and the bundle and so forth. But I think we feel very good about the fact that other than how strong the recession impacts that. But right now, we feel very good that the things that John is talking about and that we've been saying those products are driving much more retention and less focus on price. The price value losses have come down, as John mentioned, and it's been very much because of the value that we're adding, I think, with the other products, the value that we added by giving -- by bringing an employee retention tax credit to them or helping them for -- get their PPP loan forgiven very quickly and easily.

我認為感覺 - 我們對價格感覺非常好，顯然。我認為 Efrain 前面提到了價格上漲，朝著更高端的方向發展，但這取決於產品和捆綁等。但我認為，除了經濟衰退對它的影響有多大之外，我們對這一事實感到非常滿意。但是現在，我們感覺非常好，約翰正在談論的事情以及我們一直在說的那些產品正在推動更多的保留，而不是對價格的關注。正如約翰所說，價格價值損失已經下降，這很大程度上是因為我們增加了其他產品的價值，我認為，我們通過提供員工保留稅來增加價值向他們提供信貸或幫助他們 - 快速輕鬆地免除他們的 PPP 貸款。

Those things have really impacted the price elasticity and the fact that, "hey, this is driving value for me and therefore, it's well worth it." And we really -- I think we really, as a company, sees the opportunity during the pandemic to show much more value than we probably had in the past. We took that opportunity that we were given that we could be there for them through a difficult pandemic time to help them retain people, hire people, handle their teams remotely with paperless digital solutions. All of that really benefited us and is continuing as we kind of come out of that period as well.

這些事情確實影響了價格彈性以及“嘿，這對我來說是推動價值，因此非常值得”。而且我們真的——我認為，作為一家公司，我們真的看到了在大流行期間展示比過去可能擁有的更多價值的機會。我們抓住了這個機會，讓我們可以在艱難的大流行時期為他們服務，幫助他們留住人才、僱用人才、使用無紙化數字解決方案遠程處理他們的團隊。所有這一切都讓我們受益匪淺，並且隨著我們走出那個時期，我們還在繼續。

Our next question will come from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

It's Jonathan on for James. How does your strategy around M&A change in a recessionary environment, particularly if we were to get a material drop in private valuations and you see attractive opportunities?

詹姆斯是喬納森。在經濟衰退的環境下，您的併購策略將如何變化，特別是如果我們的私人估值大幅下降並且您看到了有吸引力的機會？

Well, we'd love that. We're always on the hunt. And I think the valuations have not caught up on that private side at all that we've seen we're still seeing some nice opportunities in various markets that we've talked about in the past, but the valuations don't seem to quite happen yet. So we're expecting typically, it does kind of follow behind the public side of it, we'll see what happens. But with the cash that Efrain talked about, we're well positioned to take advantage of opportunities that come up whether it's a recession or just kind of a repricing on some of the valuations that I think will happen because you can see it already in the private markets where there's a lot of cost cutting and in a lot of much more conservative approaches to things to get themselves positioned better to make sure they don't lose so much on the valuation. So we're watching very closely. We're continuing to talk to those companies that we've talked to in the past, and we'll keep an eye on valuations, but I think it gives even a better opportunity.

好吧，我們會喜歡的。我們一直在尋找。而且我認為估值根本沒有趕上我們所看到的私人方面，我們仍然在過去討論過的各個市場中看到了一些不錯的機會，但估值似乎並不完全還沒有發生。所以我們通常期待，它確實會跟隨它的公共方面，我們會看看會發生什麼。但憑藉 Efrain 談到的現金，我們可以很好地利用出現的機會，無論是經濟衰退還是只是對我認為將會發生的一些估值進行重新定價，因為你已經在私人市場有很多成本削減和很多更保守的方法來讓自己更好地定位，以確保他們不會在估值上損失太多。所以我們正在密切關注。我們將繼續與我們過去曾與之交談過的那些公司交談，我們將密切關注估值，但我認為它提供了更好的機會。

Got it. Appreciate that perspective. And you called out further investment product development and IT. Where are you focused on improving from a product portfolio or a tech perspective?

知道了。欣賞這種觀點。您還呼籲進一步投資產品開發和 IT。從產品組合或技術角度來看，您專注於改進哪些方面？

Yes. I think it just continues to be from a digital standpoint, particularly, I think, on the sales side, you just -- it's obvious that the buying process is much more about being able to do it themselves. I think John mentioned earlier that it is still a combination of doing the research, some going through and buying themselves and we have that availability, whether it's Flex or Sure. And then there's also those that go so far and then need a sales rep or want a sales rep involved, whether it's digital format, whether it's on the web or whether it's in person or bringing in a sales engineer on the web or in person for a demo. So I think those investments will continue.

是的。我認為這只是從數字的角度來看，特別是，我認為，在銷售方面，你只是 - 很明顯，購買過程更多的是能夠自己做。我認為約翰之前提到它仍然是做研究的組合，一些人自己經歷和購買，我們有這種可用性，無論是 Flex 還是 Sure。然後還有一些到目前為止需要銷售代表或希望銷售代表參與，無論是數字格式，無論是在網絡上還是親自或在網絡上或親自引入銷售工程師演示。所以我認為這些投資將繼續下去。

Product investments also road maps are planned out for the next 2 years to lay out much more flexibility on the way we pay. Certainly, from a pay access and pay on demand, we offer that today through partnership as well. But I think that will continue to expand. Earned wage access is something that we see continuing to expand. And just the overall product availability and the ability also to choose who you want to be connected with. So we're very busy from an API standpoint, expanding our set of APIs to if you want to keep certain portions of the business but really gain the power of Flex HR. You have that opportunity.

產品投資還計劃在未來 2 年內製定路線圖，以在我們的支付方式上提供更大的靈活性。當然，從付費訪問和按需付費，我們今天也通過合作夥伴關係提供。但我認為這將繼續擴大。獲得工資的機會是我們看到的繼續擴大的東西。並且只是整體產品可用性以及選擇您想要聯繫的人的能力。因此，從 API 的角度來看，我們非常忙，正在擴展我們的 API 集，以便您想要保留某些業務但真正獲得 Flex HR 的力量。你有這個機會。

So a lot of investment, levels have continued. And actually, we're very proud of the fact that we can produce the margins that we show and that Efrain has talked about and guided to while we're still significantly investing in a digital product set.

所以大量的投入，水平不斷。實際上，我們為我們能夠產生我們展示的利潤以及 Efrain 所談論和指導的利潤率而感到非常自豪，而我們仍在大量投資於數字產品集。

Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Marcon 和 Baird。

Wondering -- this question has been asked a little bit, but I want to ask it a different way. If you didn't see all of the macro headlines that are out there, and you're obviously, you're all experienced, you're all aware of the impact of higher rates ultimately from a macro perspective. If we didn't see higher rates and if you didn't see all the macro headlines, how would the guidance have been different?

想知道——這個問題已經被問了一點，但我想用不同的方式問它。如果您沒有看到所有的宏觀頭條新聞，而且很明顯，您都經驗豐富，那麼您最終都會從宏觀角度了解加息的影響。如果我們沒有看到更高的利率並且您沒有看到所有宏觀頭條新聞，那麼指導會有什麼不同？

Well, you're more in the...

嗯，你更在...

I would say this, Mark, if I just kind of disaggregate that question and say I'm looking at the indicators or we're looking at the indicators because it's not me. It's a team of people that are looking at. And we say these are the indicators we're presented with before we put together a plan. It's just hard to say that the plan would be that much different than the plan that we saw. You'd have lower interest rates. You might push a little bit more on the operating side, but it wouldn't be significantly different. I'd just remind people, I share this with the leadership team.

馬克，我會這麼說，如果我只是分解這個問題並說我正在查看指標，或者我們正在查看指標，因為它不是我。這是一群人在看。我們說這些是我們在製定計劃之前提供的指標。很難說該計劃與我們看到的計劃有很大不同。你會有更低的利率。您可能會在操作方面多加一點，但不會有太大的不同。我只是提醒人們，我與領導團隊分享這一點。

Pre-pandemic leading into the pandemic, we were at about a 5% CAGR growth rate. Actually, it's a little bit, we were trending up. But if you take the end of the pandemic, our CAGR was about 5% on the top line and 10% on the bottom line. We've come out of the pandemic growing faster than that because going into the pandemic before all of these things occurred, all of the pandemic-related impacts occurred. We had made a lot of investments in automating, digitalizing, digitizing, you name it. We did it all, and we're still doing that.

大流行前導致大流行，我們的複合年增長率約為 5%。實際上，這是一點點，我們正在上升。但是，如果您考慮大流行的結束，我們的複合年增長率約為 5% 的頂線和 10% 的底線。我們擺脫大流行的速度比這更快，因為在所有這些事情發生之前進入大流行，所有與大流行相關的影響都發生了。我們在自動化、數字化、數字化等方面進行了大量投資。我們都做到了，而且我們仍在這樣做。

And so we -- the business was on an uptrend. And so I would have expected if we were looking at this year that a lot of those actions that are part of the DNA of the way Marty and the team has operated the company would continue and you deliver something like upper single-digit growth and pretty close to double-digit bottom line, which, by the way, there's a long track record of doing in the company. So I guess that's my answer to the question.

所以我們 - 業務處於上升趨勢。因此，如果我們關註今年，我會預期，許多作為 Marty 和團隊運營公司方式 DNA 的一部分的行動將繼續下去，並且您會實現類似上個位數的增長和漂亮的接近兩位數的底線，順便說一句，這在公司有很長的記錄。所以我想這就是我對這個問題的回答。

Yes. And I would just add, Mark, when you look at it, so if you assume interest rates go up, and obviously, there's a tailwind, as Efrain mentioned, from the interest rate. On the other hand, that could slow the housing market some. And there's a lot of small business around housing. So that's offsetting it. So there's offsets that we had to take into account, that we take into account as well. And I think overall, as Efrain said, we've really come up through the pandemic and out of the pandemic with a higher growth rate that's been consistent whether the interest rates -- before the interest rates were changing. We'll take the tailwind, but we also know that there's some risk that comes with that for small business development and growth.

是的。我想補充一點，馬克，當你看到它時，如果你假設利率上升，顯然，正如 Efrain 所提到的，利率有一個順風。另一方面，這可能會使房地產市場放緩一些。還有很多圍繞住房的小企業。所以這抵消了它。因此，我們必須考慮到偏移量，我們也要考慮到這些偏移量。我認為總體而言，正如 Efrain 所說，我們確實在大流行和大流行之後以更高的增長率出現，無論利率 - 在利率發生變化之前，這都是一致的。我們會順風順水，但我們也知道小企業的發展和增長會帶來一些風險。

That's great, Marty. I mean I just -- my sense is that you probably took into account the macro headlines and probably we're a little bit more conservative than you would have been had you not seen all those macro headlines? Is that a correct assumption?

太好了，馬蒂。我的意思是我只是 - 我的感覺是你可能考慮了宏觀頭條新聞，如果你沒有看到所有這些宏觀頭條新聞，我們可能會比你更保守一些？這是一個正確的假設嗎？

Mark, let me answer it this way. So just to be more specific. The challenge that we have, and I think we've been very transparent with The Street is that we tell you what -- we tell you exactly what we know when we say it. And when it isn't right, we call it out. And I'm not saying other competitors don't. Of course, they do. The issue is we have a fair amount of consistency and predictability in the business, not just because that's the way the business is, but that's the way we run the business.

馬克，讓我這樣回答。所以只是為了更具體。我們面臨的挑戰，我認為我們對 The Street 非常透明的是，我們會告訴你什麼——當我們說出來時，我們會準確地告訴你我們所知道的。當它不正確時，我們會大聲疾呼。我並不是說其他競爭對手沒有。當然，他們確實如此。問題是我們在業務中具有相當多的一致性和可預測性，不僅因為這就是業務的方式，而且這就是我們經營業務的方式。

So the specific answer to your question is, we can see the first half of the year. We feel pretty good about where the first half of the year is. Here's where it gets cloudier. It's the second half of the year where it's a little bit cloudier. And there's macro factors that will impact that to Marty's point, we had to take into effect the fact that we're not going to have the same kind of second half of the year. The macro isn't lining up exactly the way it was this year. So we looked at the first half. We feel pretty good about that the second half as we go through the year, we'll update it. I think we've got a pretty good view of what it looks like based on everything we know now. But I don't need to remind you that even the Fed is struggling to understand what the macro indicators they're looking at.

所以具體回答你的問題，我們可以看上半年。我們對上半年的情況感覺很好。這是變得更加陰雲密布的地方。這是今年下半年，它有點多雲。在馬蒂看來，有一些宏觀因素會影響這一點，我們必須考慮到今年下半年我們不會有同樣的情況這一事實。宏並沒有完全按照今年的方式排列。所以我們看了上半場。下半年我們感覺很好，我們會更新它。我認為根據我們現在所知道的一切，我們已經很好地了解了它的外觀。但我不需要提醒你，即使是美聯儲也在努力理解他們正在關注的宏觀指標。

Yes. Understood. And then, hey, with regards to bookings, can you break down the bookings that you ended up seeing with regards to the fourth quarter and how the pipeline is looking? And specifically, how would you characterize micro versus SPS versus mid-market? And then to what extent are you seeing growth in terms of new logos versus upsells?

是的。明白了。然後，嘿，關於預訂，你能分解一下你最終看到的關於第四季度的預訂以及管道的情況嗎？具體來說，您如何描述微型市場與 SPS 與中端市場？然後，您看到新徽標與追加銷售在多大程度上有所增長？

Yes. I think across the board, pretty strong mid-market in particular, that we've called out a couple of times, has really been strong. I think we've done very well. In last fiscal year and starting off this first quarter as well as continued, I think the execution on the sales side, the product and everything is really driven very strong results in the mid market. And we feel we're doing very well against the competition that I think might be struggling a little bit with the things that we're putting out.

是的。我認為全面，特別是非常強大的中端市場，我們已經喊了幾次，真的很強大。我認為我們做得很好。在上一財年和第一季度開始以及繼續，我認為銷售方面的執行，產品和一切真的推動了中端市場非常強勁的業績。而且我們覺得我們在面對競爭對手時做得很好，我認為可能會在我們推出的東西上有點掙扎。

On the small market, it continues to be okay. I think they're the ones that are probably struggling a little bit more. And then on the micro continues to be very strong. sure, in particular, continue to have very solid growth, and we had growth on the Flex side. So really across the board, I think, in good shape and heading into the quarter, frankly, in good shape. Sales so fully staffed, a little bit of growth from the rep side. But across the board, I mean, sales had their best year ever. And that was pretty much across the board, whether you're talking about the payroll side, retirement, HR, ASO, PEO, really most every area so.

在小市場上，它仍然可以。我認為他們可能會更加掙扎。然後在微上繼續非常強勁。當然，尤其是繼續保持非常穩健的增長，我們在 Flex 方面也有增長。所以，我認為，真的全面，而且狀態良好，坦率地說，狀態良好。銷售人員配備齊全，代表方面略有增長。但總體而言，我的意思是，銷售額是有史以來最好的一年。這幾乎是全面的，無論你是在談論工資方面、退休、人力資源、ASO、PEO，實際上幾乎每個領域都是如此。

Great. And what percentage of the bookings are upsells versus new logos?

偉大的。與新徽標相比，追加銷售的預訂百分比是多少？

I would say, particularly on the payroll side, it's still about the same. I'd say roughly half is new business. And we really haven't -- new businesses have slowed somewhat, but we've still had a very good track record on winning new business. It's still about 50% of the sales coming in on the payroll side.

我想說，特別是在工資方面，它仍然大致相同。我會說大約一半是新業務。我們真的沒有——新業務有所放緩，但我們在贏得新業務方面仍然有很好的記錄。仍然有大約 50% 的銷售額來自工資單方面。

Our last question will come from Scott Wurtzel with Wolfe Research.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Wurtzel。

Just wanted to ask on margins. We thought the guide for the full year was pretty encouraging, but I just wanted to look at the first half. It looks like you're guiding for adjusted operating margins to be down a little bit relative to the first half last year. So just wondering what the puts and takes around that, is it mostly due to sort of the wage inflation and increased head count that you've sort of taken or is there any other impacts there?

只是想問問邊際。我們認為全年的指南非常令人鼓舞，但我只想看看上半年。看起來您正在指導調整後的營業利潤率相對於去年上半年有所下降。所以只是想知道什麼是看跌期權，這主要是由於工資膨脹和你採取的人數增加，還是那裡有任何其他影響？

Yes. What you're seeing when you dig underneath that is that in the first half of the year, our margins were stronger in part because our employment levels were lower. So I kept saying last year that we were adequately staffed and not fully staffed. And we are fully staffed in the first half of the year in addition to the wage actions that we took. So that has an impact of driving margin in the first half down and then you get the benefit in the back half.

是的。當你深入挖掘時，你看到的是，在今年上半年，我們的利潤率更高，部分原因是我們的就業水平較低。所以我去年一直說我們的人員配備充足，但人員配備不足。除了我們採取的工資措施外，我們在上半年的人員配備齊全。所以這會影響上半場的利潤率下降，然後你會在後半場受益。

Got it. Got it. And then just -- sorry, if I may have missed this, I don't know if it was discussed. But is there any way you can maybe unpack on the client fund interest income guidance, just what's the puts and takes between sort of like balance growth and what you're expecting on yields?

知道了。知道了。然後只是- 抱歉，如果我可能錯過了這個，我不知道是否討論過。但是，您有什麼辦法可以解開客戶基金利息收入指南，就像平衡增長和您對收益率的預期之間的看跌期權是什麼？

Yes. We're expecting modest balance growth. We've had pretty strong balance growth this year. So that really -- the growth is really being driven by our anticipation of what the Fed is going to do between now and end of year. So it's really more interest rate driven. But we are expecting client balance growth too based on wage inflation.

是的。我們預計餘額將適度增長。今年我們的餘額增長非常強勁。所以這真的 - 增長真的是由我們對美聯儲從現在到年底之間將要做什麼的預期推動的。所以它實際上更多的是利率驅動。但我們預計客戶餘額的增長也會基於工資通脹。

Thank you. This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's call. I would like to turn it back over to our speakers.

謝謝你。這確實結束了今天電話會議的問答環節。我想把它交還給我們的演講者。

All right. Thank you. At this point, we will close the call. If you're interested in replaying the webcast of this conference call, it's archived for approximately 90 days. And thank you for taking the time to participate in our very strong fourth quarter earnings release conference call and your interest in Paychex. I hope you all enjoy a safe and happy summer. Talk to you soon. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你。此時，我們將關閉通話。如果您有興趣重播此電話會議的網絡廣播，它已存檔大約 90 天。並感謝您抽出時間參加我們非常強勁的第四季度收益發布電話會議以及您對 Paychex 的興趣。希望大家度過一個安全快樂的暑假。以後再聊。謝謝你。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call, and we appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束，我們感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接。