沛齊 (PAYX) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Paychex Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year-end Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加今天的Paychex第四季及財政年度終業績電話會議。 （操作說明）請注意，本次電話會議正在錄音。 （操作說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Mr. Martin Mucci, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Sir, please begin.

現在我很高興將今天的節目交給董事長兼執行長馬丁·穆奇先生。先生，請開始吧。

Thank you, and thank you for joining us for our discussion of the Paychex Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 earnings release. Joining me today are: Efrain Rivera, our Chief Financial Officer; and John Gibson, our President and Chief Operating Officer.

謝謝大家，也感謝各位參加我們關於Paychex 2022財年第四季及全年業績發布的討論會。今天與我一同出席的有：財務長Efrain Rivera；以及總裁兼營運長John Gibson。

This morning, before the market opened, we released our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended May 31, 2022. You can access our earnings release on the Investor Relations website and our Form 10-K will be filed with the SEC before the end of July. This teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on the website for about 90 days.

今天上午，在市場開盤前，我們發布了截至2022年5月31日的第四季和全年財務表現。您可以在投資者關係網站上查閱我們的業績報告，我們的10-K表格將於7月底前提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）。本次電話會議將透過網路直播，並將在網站上存檔約90天。

We will start today's call with an update on business highlights for fourth quarter and the fiscal year. Efrain will review our financial results and outlook for fiscal 2023, and we will then open it up for your questions or comments.

今天的電話會議將首先介紹第四季和本財年的業務亮點。 Efrain 將回顧我們的財務表現和 2023 財年的展望，之後我們將開放提問和評論環節。

We are very pleased to close on our fiscal year with yet another strong quarter. Our successful fiscal 2022 results reflect strong execution across the company. This includes our sales teams highlighting our value proposition, our service teams in retaining clients, our cross-functional partnership to get new products in front of clients quickly and a solid success in HR outsourcing and in the mid-market.

我們非常高興以另一個強勁的季度業績為本財年畫下完美句點。 2022財年的成功業績反映了公司各部門的高效執行。這包括銷售團隊突顯了我們的價值主張，服務團隊在客戶維繫方面取得了顯著成效，跨部門協作迅速將新產品推向客戶，以及在人力資源外包和中端市場業務方面取得的穩健成功。

Our adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 24% reflects both strong revenue growth and margin expansion to an operating margin of approximately 40% for fiscal 2022. Our focus on cost control, lower discretionary spend and operating efficiencies has allowed us to both invest in our business and expand operating margins.

我們經調整後的稀釋每股盈餘成長了24%，這反映了強勁的營收成長和利潤率的提升，2022財年的營業利潤率約為40%。我們專注於成本控制、減少可自由支配支出和提高營運效率，這使我們能夠既投資於自身業務，又擴大營業利潤率。

Macroeconomic trends have been positive this year, but with inflation at a 40-year high, there are concerns for potential of a recession in the near future. We continue to monitor key leading indicators for any signs of a change in the macroeconomic environment, but have not seen any signs of deterioration at this time.

今年宏觀經濟趨勢總體向好，但由於通膨率處於40年來的最高水平，人們擔憂近期可能出現經濟衰退。我們將繼續密切關注關鍵領先指標，以判斷宏觀經濟環境是否有任何變化跡象，但目前尚未發現任何惡化跡象。

Typically, the first signs of a macroeconomic recession would be a decline in employment levels at existing clients and uptick in non-processing clients or a slowdown in sales activities. These indicators continue to trend in a positive direction.

通常，宏觀經濟衰退的最初跡像是現有客戶的就業水準下降，以及非業務拓展客戶數量增加或銷售活動放緩。這些指標目前仍呈現上升趨勢。

The latest Paychex IHS Small Business Employment Watch reflected a 12-month consecutive -- a 12th consecutive month of increasing hourly earnings gains, though we did notice slowing a bit of the pace of job growth in May. However, this is more reflective of being near full employment and the difficulty of finding employees.

Paychex IHS 最新發布的《小型企業就業觀察報告》顯示，小時工資連續第 12 個月增長，儘管我們注意到 5 月份就業成長速度略有放緩。然而，這更反映了就業已接近充分，以及招募難度增加。

Job growth at U.S. small businesses remained strong in the face of a tight labor market and inflation pressures.

儘管勞動市場緊張且面臨通膨壓力，美國小企業的就業成長依然強勁。

Earlier this year, John Gibson was appointed President and Chief Operating Officer. John has been leading our service operation since 2013 and we're glad to introduce you to him on this call and have him participate. I will now turn it over to John, who will give us an update on our sales and service performance. John?

今年早些時候，約翰·吉布森被任命為總裁兼營運長。自2013年以來，約翰一直領導著我們的服務運營，我們很高興在這次電話會議上向大家介紹他，並邀請他參與討論。現在我將把發言權交給約翰，他將為我們報告銷售和服務績效的最新情況。約翰？

Thank you, Marty. I'm happy to be joining all of you today on this call. and provide an update on our performance, both for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year '22. We finished the year with over 730,000 total payroll clients with growth driven by both strong sales and retention. In addition, we now service approximately 2 million work-site employees to our ASO and PEO offerings, with 18% growth in the fiscal year.

謝謝馬蒂。很高興今天能和大家一起參加這次電話會議，並向大家報告我們2022財年第四季和全年的業績。年底，我們的薪資客戶總數超過73萬，成長主要得益於強勁的銷售和客戶留存率。此外，我們目前透過ASO和PEO服務為約200萬名工作場所員工提供服務，本財年成長了18%。

We had a record level of new sales revenue for both the fourth quarter and full fiscal year. Our sales teams truly executed across the board from digital sales in the low end and continuing momentum in the mid-market and very particularly strong demand in HR outsourcing and retirement. This reflects the strength of our value proposition and was aided by the improved sales productivity by our continued investments in demand generation and sales tools.

第四季和整個財年，我們的新銷售收入均創歷史新高。從低端市場的數位化銷售，到中端市場的持續成長勢頭，再到人力資源外包和退休保障領域尤為強勁的需求，我們的銷售團隊在各方面都表現出色。這充分體現了我們價值主張的優勢，同時也得益於我們持續投資於需求挖掘和銷售工具，從而提升了銷售效率。

Our service teams have worked tirelessly to both support our clients and our sales growth throughout the year. We are very pleased with our revenue retention, which was comparable to our pre-pandemic record of last year. We have continued to make strong progress in hiring, and we actually accelerated some hiring into the fourth quarter to ensure we are fully staffed and ready to execute our goals in fiscal year '23.

我們的服務團隊全年不懈努力，為客戶提供支持，並推動銷售成長。我們對收入留存率非常滿意，與去年疫情前的水平基本持平。我們在招募方面持續取得顯著進展，甚至加快了部分招募工作，提前至第四季度，以確保人員配備充足，為實現2023財年的目標做好準備。

We believe that by partnering with our clients and remaining agile and flexible in how we meet those needs, we will provide them the ability to focus on running their business and increase their success in navigating today's very complex business environment. Their ability to rely on Paychex to make the complex simple will result in their continued success and will, of course, then lead to continued elevated retention that benefits everyone.

我們相信，透過與客戶建立夥伴關係，並保持靈活敏捷地滿足他們的需求，我們將幫助他們專注於業務運營，並在當今複雜的商業環境中取得更大的成功。他們能夠信賴 Paychex 將複雜問題化繁為簡，這將幫助他們持續成功，並最終帶來更高的客戶留存率，使各方受益。

I'll now turn the call back over to Marty.

現在我將把電話轉回給馬蒂。

Thanks, John. We continue to help our clients deal with the issues they consider most pressing. We were recently recognized for doing just that by receiving the HR Tech Award from Lighthouse Research and Advisory for the best SMB-focused solution in the core HR workforce category for the third consecutive year.

謝謝約翰。我們一直致力於幫助客戶解決他們認為最迫切的問題。最近，我們因在這方面所做的努力而獲得認可，連續第三年榮獲 Lighthouse Research and Advisory 頒發的 HR Tech Award 人力資源科技獎，該獎項旨在表彰核心人力資源領域中面向中小企業的最佳解決方案。

What stood out about Paychex Flex was our ability to rapidly respond to changing conditions, delivering a product that is consistently up to date on the latest requirements. We have been able to help clients navigate challenges, including recruiting and retaining talent during the great resignation, gaining access to government stimulus programs like the employee retention tax credit, enhancing benefit offerings and transitioning to a digitally-enabled distributed work environment.

Paychex Flex 的突出優勢在於我們能夠快速回應不斷變化的市場環境，並始終提供符合最新要求的產品。我們已成功幫助客戶應對各種挑戰，包括在人才流失潮期間招募和留住人才、獲得政府刺激計劃（例如員工留任稅收抵免）、優化福利待遇以及向數位分散式辦公環境轉型。

Our strong and resilient product suite of HR, payroll, insurance, retirement and PEO have been strategically designed to help businesses maximize every opportunity presented to them. We continue to see expanded utilization of our recruiting and applicant tracking solutions designed to help businesses find talent in a low unemployment environment.

我們強大且穩健的人力資源、薪資、保險、退休和專業雇主組織 (PEO) 產品組合經過精心設計，旨在幫助企業最大限度地掌握每一個機會。我們看到，在低失業率環境下，企業招募和應徵者追蹤解決方案的使用率持續成長，這些解決方案旨在幫助企業找到優秀人才。

Our deep integration with Indeed is helping our clients gain access to a strong set of candidates. Over 70% of the client employees hired through our Flex recruiting and applicant tracking module were sourced from Indeed, the world's largest job posting site.

我們與Indeed的深度整合，幫助我們的客戶獲得了大量優質候選人。透過我們的Flex招募和應徵者追蹤模組招募的客戶員工中，超過70%都來自全球最大的招募網站Indeed。

Our retirement solutions are also experiencing record demand due to state mandates and the need for differentiated benefit offerings to retain top talent. The introduction of our Pooled Employer Plan further differentiates our solution set. We now help over 104,000 businesses and over 1.3 million client employees save for a dignified environment retirement with industry-leading mobile technology, which allows employees to enjoy enrolling their retirement in just 4 clicks.

由於各州政府的強制規定以及企業需要提供差異化的福利方案以留住頂尖人才，我們的退休解決方案需求也創下歷史新高。我們推出的「集合雇主計畫」進一步增強了我們解決方案的差異化優勢。目前，我們利用業界領先的行動技術，幫助超過10.4萬家企業和超過130萬名員工為體面的退休生活進行儲蓄，員工只需點擊四次即可輕鬆完成退休計畫註冊。

HR has historically been tasked with helping businesses stay compliant and manage their talent. With Paychex HR, we deliver on these goals while also helping businesses operate more efficiently. Paychex HR helps businesses replace paper with modern, easy-to-use digital processes through our cloud-enabled Flex mobile technology.

人力資源部門歷來肩負著幫助企業合規營運和管理人才的重任。 Paychex HR 不僅能幫助企業實現這些目標，還能提升企業營運效率。 Paychex HR 透過我們基於雲端的 Flex 行動技術，幫助企業以現代化、易用的數位化流程取代紙本文件。

Given current challenges with hiring and the rising costs brought on by inflation, we address head on the need for businesses to operate more efficiently. Over 1.7 million client employees were onboarded through a completely digital experience during fiscal '22.

鑑於目前招募面臨的挑戰以及通貨膨脹帶來的成本上升，我們著力解決企業提高營運效率的需求。在2022財年，我們透過全數位化流程幫助超過170萬名客戶員工完成了入職培訓。

Maximum gains and efficiency are obtained when the leading technology we bring to payroll HR and time collection and scheduling are brought together. Paychex Pre-Check debut in January and the early adopters of Pre-Check have benefited from the proactive approach of letting their employees preview and approve their checks prior to processing. Prospects have been excited about the time savings and problem avoidance that comes with Pre-Check.

當我們將領先的薪資人力資源技術與考勤和排班系統結合時，就能實現收益最大化和效率提升。 Paychex Pre-Check 於 1 月正式推出，早期用戶已受益於其主動式功能，該功能允許員工在處理薪資前預覽並確認。潛在客戶也對 Pre-Check 帶來的時間節省和問題規避功能充滿期待。

We also continue to innovate in the PEO space, Paychex PEO offers a continuum benefits that is unique to our clients from traditional health dental and vision funded by the client to comprehensive employee volunteer packages, including options for employees to purchase anything from critical illness policies to pet insurance to new and emerging benefit offerings like student loan subsidies, robust benefit offerings designed for part-time employees, telemedicine and mental health counseling.

我們也在 PEO 領域不斷創新，Paychex PEO 為客戶提供一系列獨特的福利，從客戶出資的傳統醫療、牙科和視力保險，到全面的員工志願服務方案，包括員工購買從重大疾病保險到寵物保險等各種保險，以及學生貸款補貼、專為兼職員工設計的完善福利、遠距醫療和心理健康諮詢等新興福利。

Our Paychex PEO provides a differentiated approach to benefits designed to help our clients attract and retain top talent.

我們的 Paychex PEO 提供差異化的福利方案，旨在幫助我們的客戶吸引和留住頂尖人才。

Managing cash flow is also a top priority for businesses as they are struggling to address the impact of supply chain issues and rising inflation. We continue to find ways for customers to access government stimulus including helping our clients gain access to over $8 billion in employee retention and paid leave tax credits. This builds on the momentum of our $65 billion of PPP loan program initiative in 2020. Our award-winning PPP forgiveness tool has been instrumental in helping our clients transition 96% of those loans to full loan forgiveness.

由於供應鏈問題和通貨膨脹加劇，企業在應對這些挑戰時，現金流管理也成為首要任務。我們持續為客戶尋找獲得政府刺激資金的途徑，包括幫助客戶獲得超過80億美元的員工留任和帶薪休假稅收抵免。這建立在我們2020年650億美元的PPP貸款計畫的基礎上。我們屢獲殊榮的PPP貸款豁免工具在幫助客戶將其中96%的貸款轉化為全額豁免方面發揮了關鍵作用。

At Paychex, we know our employees are critical to who we are and what we do, and I believe that our focus on employees and their well-being has helped us manage through the competitive labor market. We are identified as one of the America's best employers for diversity by Forbes Magazine and were recognized by business group on health for offering one of the nation's top health and well-being programs with the Best Employers: Excellence in Health and Well-being award.

在Paychex，我們深知員工是我們公司發展和業務成功的關鍵。我相信，我們對員工及其福祉的重視，幫助我們在競爭激烈的勞動市場中脫穎而出。我們被《富比士》雜誌評為美國最具多元化雇主之一，並因提供全美頂尖的健康福利計劃而榮獲商業健康集團頒發的「最佳雇主：卓越健康福利獎」。

As fiscal '22 came to a close, I'm very proud of the excellent results we had for the year and excited about our continued growth. I want to thank our 16,000 employees who are key to our success and have done a tremendous job in this ever-changing environment.

2022財年即將結束，我為我們今年所取得的優異業績感到非常自豪，並對我們未來的持續成長充滿信心。我要感謝我們16,000名員工，他們是我們成功的關鍵，並在瞬息萬變的環境中做出了卓越的貢獻。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Efrain Rivera to review our financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year as well as our guidance for fiscal 2023. Efrain?

接下來，我將把電話交給埃弗雷恩·裡維拉，讓他回顧我們第四季和本財年的財務業績，以及我們對2023財年的展望。埃弗雷恩？

Thanks, Marty, and good morning to all of you. It's great to join you at the end of one of the most successful years in the company's history despite the success what you have from us and will always have is a team that's grounded and we'll continue to work to deliver shareholder returns that lead the market.

謝謝馬蒂，各位早安。很高興在公司歷史上最成功的年份之一即將結束時與大家共事。儘管取得了成功，我們始終擁有一支腳踏實地的團隊，我們將繼續努力，為股東帶來引領市場的回報。

I'd like to remind everyone that today's conference call will contain forward-looking investment statements. Refer to the customary disclosures. I'll periodically refer to some non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the press release and investor presentation for more information. They're pretty modest adjustments.

我想提醒各位，今天的電話會議將包含前瞻性投資聲明。請參閱慣例揭露資訊。我會不時提及一些非GAAP財務指標。更多資訊請參閱新聞稿和投資者簡報。這些調整幅度相當小。

I'll start by providing a summary of our fourth quarter financial results, quickly hit on full year results and then provide some guidance for fiscal '23. For the fourth quarter of fiscal '22, as you saw, about service revenue and total revenue increased 11% to $1.1 billion. Management Solutions had another strong quarter, increasing to 12% to $845 million, driven by higher revenue per client and growth in our payroll client base. The higher revenue per client reflects product attachment across our HCM suite, higher employment levels within our base, pricing, revenue from ancillary services, including our ERTC service.

首先，我將概述我們第四季的財務業績，簡要介紹全年業績，然後對2023財年做出一些展望。如您所見，在2022財年第四季度，服務收入和總收入成長了11%，達到11億美元。管理解決方案業務在本季表現強勁，成長12%，達到8.45億美元，主要得益於每位客戶收入的提高以及薪資客戶群的成長。每位客戶收入的提高反映了我們HCM套件產品的附加價值增加、客戶群就業水準的提高、定價策略以及包括ERTC服務在內的輔助服務收入。

ERTC revenue reached approximately 1% of total service revenue. That's for the year. While we do not anticipate this revenue stream to continue at that level, there still remains a significant opportunity both inside and outside our base.

ERTC收入約佔全年總服務收入的1%。雖然我們預計這項收入不會繼續保持目前的水平，但無論是在現有客戶群內部還是外部，仍然存在巨大的發展機會。

PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue increased 10% to $284 million, driven primarily by higher average work-site employees in health insurance revenue. Interest on funds held for clients increased just 2% for the quarter to $15 million due primarily to growth in average investment balances. Note that while recent rate hikes did not have a significant impact on the fiscal quarter, they will provide a tailwind for next year.

PEO和保險解決方案收入成長10%至2.84億美元，主要得益於健康保險收入中工作場所員工平均人數的增加。由於平均投資餘額的成長，客戶資金利息在本季僅成長2%至1500萬美元。值得注意的是，儘管近期利率上調對本財季的影響不大，但將為明年帶來利多。

Total expenses increased 11% to $750 million. The growth in expenses resulted primarily from higher compensation costs due to increased headcount to support our growing client base wage rates and performance-based compensation. In addition, we continue to invest in our products, technology and marketing.

總支出成長11%，達到7.5億美元。支出成長的主要原因是為支持不斷增長的客戶群而增加的員工人數，導致薪酬成本上升，其中包括薪資水準和績效獎金。此外，我們還將繼續投資於產品、技術和行銷。

And I just want to call out the margin in the quarter. We made very deliberate choices in the fourth quarter to invest back in our client base and in our -- among our employees. That's why all of the flow-through did not go down to the bottom line, and that was a deliberate choice that we think leads to the future sustainability of the business. And we think we're positioned very well as a result of those choices.

我想特別說明一下本季的利潤率。第四季度，我們做出了非常審慎的選擇，將資金重新投入我們的客戶群和員工身上。正因如此，所有成本並未直接計入淨利潤，我們認為這是我們深思熟慮後做出的選擇，有助於公司未來的永續發展。我們相信，正是這些選擇讓我們處於非常有利的地位。

Operating income increased 11% to $394 million with an operating margin of 34.4% and adjusted operating margin was flat for the reasons I just said. And we anticipated some hiring and marketing spend and pull back into Q4.

營業收入成長11%至3.94億美元，營業利益率為34.4%，調整後營業利益率持平，原因如我剛才所述。我們預計第四季會有一些招募和行銷支出，並會相應減少。

Net income increased 13% for the quarter to $296 million and diluted earnings per share increased 12% to $0.82 per share despite all of that investment. Adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share both increased 13% for the quarter to $295 million and $0.81 per share, respectively. As I said, the adjustments were relatively modest.

儘管進行了大量投資，本季淨利潤仍成長13%至2.96億美元，稀釋後每股收益將成長12%至0.82美元。經調整後的淨利和經調整後的稀釋後每股收益本季均成長13%至2.95億美元和0.81美元。正如我所說，這些調整幅度相對較小。

Full year fiscal '22, let me touch on that quickly. You saw total service revenue and total revenues both increased 14% to $4.6 billion. Expenses, including onetime costs incurred during the prior year, increased 8%. Operating income and adjusted operating income increased 26% and 23% respectively, the $1.8 billion, adjusted operating margin was 39.9%, an expansion of 310 basis points over the prior year. And I just called that out.

2022財年全年業績，我簡單提一下。您可以看到，總服務收入和總收入均成長了14%，達到46億美元。包括上年發生的一次性成本在內的支出增加了8%。營業收入和調整後營業收入分別成長了26%和23%，達到18億美元，調整後營業利潤率為39.9%，比上年提高了310個基點。我剛才已經提到了這一點。

You will search high and low to find some companies that are at that level. We've delivered that. We delivered that while investing in the company because we think that we're not playing a game for the next quarter or the next year. We're playing a game for the long haul. That's what you do when you're that kind of company.

你會費盡心思尋找那些達到這種水準的公司。而我們做到了。我們之所以能做到這一點，是因為我們投資這家公司，因為我們並非著眼於下一個季度或明年，而是著眼於長遠發展。這就是我們這類公司該做的事。

Diluted earnings per share increased 27% to $3.84 per share. Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 24% to $3.77 per share. I'm really proud of our financial position. We delivered all of that and our financial position remains rock solid with cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments of $1.3 billion. Total borrowings were $806 million as of May 31. Cash flow from operations was $1.5 billion during the fiscal year. We translate earnings into cash. That's what we do. Free cash flow generated for the year was $1.3 billion, up 20% year-over-year. So earnings and cash flow were really strong this year.

稀釋後每股收益成長27%至3.84美元。調整後稀釋後每股收益成長24%至3.77美元。我對我們的財務狀況感到非常自豪。我們實現了所有這些目標，我們的財務狀況仍然穩健，現金、受限現金和公司總投資達13億美元。截至5月31日，總借款為8.06億美元。本財年經營活動產生的現金流量為15億美元。我們將獲利轉化為現金。這就是我們的工作。本年度產生的自由現金流為13億美元，年增20%。因此，今年的獲利和現金流都非常強勁。

Given the strong performance and our commitment to returning capital to shareholders, in May, we increased our quarterly dividend 20% to $0.79 per share. And as many of you know, we have one of the leading dividend in certainly in our sector and industry. And during fiscal '22, we paid out a total of $1 billion in dividends, and we also repurchased 1.2 million shares of Paychex common stock for $145 million. Our 12-month rolling return on equity was a superb 45%.

鑑於公司業績強勁，且我們始終致力於向股東返還資本，我們在5月份將季度股息提高了20%，至每股0.79美元。眾所周知，我們的股利在同業中名列前茅。在2022財年，我們共派發了10億美元的股息，同時也斥資1.45億美元回購了120萬股Paychex普通股。我們過去12個月的滾動股本回報率高達45%。

Now let's talk about '23. I'm going to turn to the upcoming fiscal year. And our current guidance is as follows: Management Solutions revenue is expected to grow in the range of 5% to 7%, PEO and Insurance Solutions is expected to grow in the range of 8% to 10%, interest on funds held for clients expected to be in the range of $85 million to $95 million. And let me just call out that this reflects increases in line with what we understand the Fed is saying through the end of this calendar year.

現在我們來談談2023年。我將展望即將到來的財年。我們目前的預期如下：管理解決方案收入預計將成長5%至7%，PEO和保險解決方案收入預計將成長8%至10%，客戶資金利息收入預計在8,500萬美元至9,500萬美元之間。需要說明的是，這些成長與我們所理解的聯準會在今年年底前所作的政策調整相符。

What does that mean specifically? It means that we think that interest rates by the end of calendar year 2022 will be approximately 3.25%, give or take, and we are assuming that in our plans at this stage. Total revenue is expected to grow in the range of 7% to 8%. Adjusted operating income margin is expected to be in the range of 40% to 41%. Not only did we deliver a 300 basis point increase, we are committing to additional leverage as we go into next year despite having made a lot of investments in the business as we've gone along.

具體來說，這意味著什麼？這意味著我們認為到2022年底，利率將在3.25%左右，上下浮動，目前在計畫中也以此為前提。總收入預計將成長7%至8%。調整後的營業利潤率預計將在40%至41%之間。我們不僅實現了300個基點的成長，而且儘管我們一路以來對業務進行了大量投資，但明年我們仍將進一步增加槓桿。

Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be another stellar 44%. Other expense net is expected to be in the range of $5 million to $10 million. Just so you all remember, that is a combination of both interest expense less the income on the portfolio. That's why it's $5 million to $10 million. We expect that we will see income from the portfolio to offset some of the interest expense.

調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預計將繼續保持 44% 的優異水準。其他淨支出預計在 500 萬美元至 1000 萬美元之間。需要提醒大家的是，這筆支出包括利息支出和投資組合收益。因此，金額為 500 萬美元至 1000 萬美元。我們預期投資組合的收益將抵銷部分利息支出。

Our effective income tax is expected to be in the range of 24% to 25%. And adjusted diluted earnings per share at this point we expect to grow in the range of 9% to 10%. This outlook assumes the current macro environment, which, as all of you know, has some uncertainty. We, like you, week-to-week, struggle to understand sometimes what are the signals that are coming out of the federal government.

我們預計實際所得稅率將在24%至25%之間。目前，我們預計調整後的稀釋每股盈餘將成長9%至10%。這項預測是基於當前的宏觀經濟環境，但如大家所知，當前的宏觀經濟環境存在一定的不確定性。和大家一樣，我們也常常難以理解聯邦政府每週發出的訊號。

I want to reiterate something that Marty said. The indicators in our business are strong as we exit the year. So that's not a concern certainly in the first half of the year in as much as we see it right now. Second half, we will see. So where is inflation going to be? We don't know that. What is the Fed exactly going to do? We think we have some indicators. We will see what they end up doing.

我想重申一下馬蒂剛才說的話。我們業務的各項指標在年底都表現強勁。所以就目前來看，上半年至少無需擔憂。至於下半年，我們拭目以待。通膨會如何變化？我們不得而知。聯準會究竟會採取什麼行動？我們掌握了一些指標，最終結果如何，我們拭目以待。

We obviously, given all of those comments have better visibility into the first half of fiscal '23 than the second half. So here's what we think about the first half. In the first half of the year, at this stage, we expect total revenue growth to be in the range of 8% to 9% with an operating margin of approximately 39%. That's what we think will happen in the first half.

顯然，鑑於以上所有評論，我們對2023財年上半年的預測比下半年更為準確。因此，以下是我們對上半年的展望。現階段，我們預計上半年總營收成長將在8​​%至9%之間，營業利潤率約為39%。這就是我們對上半年業績的期待。

And then for the first quarter, getting a little closer, we currently are anticipating total revenue growth will be in the range of 9% to 10%, with adjusted operating margin in the range of 39% to 40%. Of course, all of this is subject to current assumptions, which are subject to change, and we'll update you again on the first quarter call.

接下來是第一季，我們目前預計總營收成長將在9%至10%之間，調整後營業利潤率將在39%至40%之間。當然，所有這些都基於當前的假設，而這些假設可能會發生變化，我們將在第一季財報電話會議上再次向您更新相關資訊。

Let me refer you to the investor slides on our website for additional information. And with that, I will turn the call back to Marty.

更多資訊請參閱我們網站上的投資者關係幻燈片。接下來，我將把電話轉回給馬蒂。

Thank you, Efrain. Operator, we'll now open it up for questions or comments.

謝謝你，埃弗雷恩。接線員，現在我們開放提問或評論環節。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from David Togut with Evercore ISI.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

I appreciate all the helpful call outs, Efrain, on fourth quarter margin impacts. Could you frame in your fiscal '23 revenue and margin guidance, specifically 3 things. First, what impact are you assuming from inflation on wage and other expenses? Second, if you could quantify your fiscal '23 price increase. And third, if you could bracket for us your expectations on client revenue retention. We're coming down from the pandemic-driven peak. How should we think about year-over-year change in client revenue retention FY '23 versus FY '22?

埃弗雷恩，非常感謝你對第四季利潤率影響的寶貴意見。能否請你具體談談2023財年的營收和利潤率預期，特別是以下三點：首先，你預期通貨膨脹對薪資和其他支出會產生什麼影響？其次，能否量化一下2023財年的物價漲幅？第三，能否大致估算一下顧客收入留存率？我們正處於疫情高峰期後的回落階段。我們該如何看待2023財年與2022財年相比的客戶收入留存率的年比變化？

Thanks. Okay. David, thanks for the questions. By the way, that triple header there could take us about 30 minutes. We'll try to make it -- so I'm going to let Marty talk to the inflation question because I think that's a good one. And kind of how we think about it in the year. It's baked into the numbers, obviously, we won't quantify a specific number, but we'll tell you about what we're thinking about with respect to inflation and how it's affecting us, how we expect it will infect us.

謝謝。好的。大衛，謝謝你的提問。順便說一下，剛才那三個問題可能要花我們大約30分鐘。我們會盡量安排好時間——所以我打算讓馬蒂來談談通貨膨脹的問題，因為我覺得這是一個很好的問題。以及我們今年是如何看待通貨膨脹的。顯然，通貨膨脹已經體現在各項數據中了，我們不會給出具體的數字，但我們會談談我們對通貨膨脹的看法，以及它如何影響我們，我們預計它將如何影響我們。

Yes. I'll touch on it, David, and Efrain can jump in any place. I think from an inflation, most of us -- most of our expenses obviously are wage. We're not really impacted obviously by a lot of material impacts, which is very good for us. Wage stuff we've captured in these numbers, we think are going to -- the wage increases are a little higher. As Efrain mentioned, we took some steps in the fourth quarter that was somewhere onetime other were wages that we built in a little bit higher from a competitive market standpoint. The onetime things were some year-end bonuses and so forth that we did given our very successful year for employees.

是的。我會簡單提一下，David，Efrain 可以隨時插話。我認為從通貨膨脹的角度來看，我們大多數人——我們的大部分支出顯然都是薪水。顯然，我們並沒有受到太多實質影響，這對我們來說非常有利。我們在這些數據中反映的薪資因素，我們認為──薪資漲幅會略高一些。正如 Efrain 所提到的，我們在第四季度採取了一些措施，其中一些是一次性的，另一些則是我們從市場競爭的角度出發，將工資略微提高了一些。一次性措施包括一些年終獎金等等，鑑於我們這一年對員工來說非常成功，我們採取了這些措施。

So we think we've captured it very well. Wages were a little bit higher than we would normally go. That's expectation. That happens in this first quarter. Basically, that the wage is hit, and we think we've captured them well.

所以我們認為我們已經很好地反映了這一點。薪資水平比我們通常的水平略高一些，這是預期之內的，第一季通常都會出現這種情況。基本上，薪資上漲是必然的，我們認為我們已經很好地反映了這一點。

Other than that, really not an overall large impact, we've controlled expenses very tightly. Even coming out of the pandemic, things that we learned and experienced there with working from home, having sales remote, much less T&E cost. We've been able to continue that trend yet still invest in the business. So I think the guidance you have there is very strong from a standpoint that we've got those inflationary numbers in there.

除此之外，整體影響並不大，我們一直嚴格控制支出。即使在疫情結束後，我們也從居家辦公、遠端銷售以及大幅降低差旅費用等方面吸取了經驗教訓。我們得以延續這一趨勢，同時也能繼續投資業務。因此，我認為你們提供的業績指引非常穩健，因為我們已經考慮到了通膨因素。

Yes. So I think the thing I wanted to call out that Marty mentioned is that we, in the fourth quarter, took a lot of actions that we think position us very well for '23. So I think we've captured as much as we know right now. There's always some room to make further adjustments, but the adjustments from an inflationary standpoint are really around wages for us. So I think we've captured that.

是的。所以，我想強調的是，馬蒂提到的一點是，我們在第四季採取了許多措施，我們認為這些措施讓我們為2023年做好了充分的準備。因此，我認為我們已經盡可能地把握住了形勢。當然，我們總是會有一些調整的空間，但從通膨的角度來看，調整主要集中在薪資方面。所以，我認為我們已經考慮到了這一點。

On the price increase, we have always said that we're in the 2% to 4% range. I would say this is a year that certainly was at the high end of that range and it varies depending on the product. I think the key thing there is to get the right mixture of value and price. And it's not just about raising prices, it's also about delivering better value. So I think we're good there.

關於價格上漲，我們一直都說漲幅在2%到4%之間。今年的漲幅確實接近這個區間的上限，具體漲幅會因產品而異。我認為關鍵在於找到價值和價格之間的最佳平衡。這不僅是提高價格，更重要的是提供更高的價值。所以我覺得我們在這方面做得很好。

And then on the client retention, we had a really good year. John mentioned earlier that our pandemic high was approximately -- was a record, and it was approximately 88%. When we closed the books this year, we were at approximately 88%. So we had a really good year from a revenue retention standpoint. There's lots of elements to that. But I think we've made a lot of strides from where we were probably 3, 4, 5 years ago. So that's -- those are the answers to your question, David.

至於客戶留存率，我們今年表現非常出色。約翰之前提到過，疫情期間我們的客戶留存率達到了創紀錄的88%左右。今年年底，我們的留存率也維持在88%左右。所以從收入留存率的角度來看，我們今年的確取得了不錯的成績。這其中有很多因素。但我認為，與三、四年前甚至五年前相比，我們已經取得了長足的進步。所以，這就是你問題的答案，大衛。

And then, Efrain, what are you assuming for FY '23 client retention? Can you sustain the 88% or are you assuming some step down?

那麼，Efrain，你對2023財年的顧客留存率有何預期？你能維持88%的留存率嗎？還是你預計會下降？

I think it's comparable. I got to say that it wouldn't be surprise -- it wouldn't be surprising to see a little bit of slippage from that number simply because I think we're transitioning into a more normalized environment where you're going to see lots of competition. Our assumption in our plan is that discounting will go up a bit because of the level of competition. So everyone's come out of the pandemic swinging. I think some people are in better shape. Others are wobblier. We think we're in pretty good shape, and we're in a position to defend pretty well.

我認為兩者基本上相當。說實話，如果實際數字略有下滑，我也不會感到驚訝——因為我認為我們正在過渡到一個更正常的市場環境，競爭將會更加激烈。我們的計劃假設，由於競爭加劇，折扣力道會略有上升。所以，疫情過後，各行各業都在積極應對。我認為有些企業狀況良好，有些則略顯脆弱。我們認為我們自身狀況相當不錯，並且有能力很好地捍衛市場。

The other thing I would say on that, that's really helped us in the year as we had a really strong year in the mid-market. And I'll let Marty talk to kind of what happened there because that's really helped us, too.

關於這一點，我還想說的是，這確實對我們今年的業績幫助很大，因為我們在中階市場的表現非常強勁。我會讓馬蒂來談談具體情況，因為這對我們也很有幫助。

Yes. On the revenue retention side, it's a good point to make that we'll make probably a couple of times on this call. The mid-market really picked up. And as we said probably a year ago, there was kind of a pent-up demand that we saw a year ago where people had not made some decisions. That opened back up, and we've been winning a lot mid-markets, the strongest year we've had in mid-market probably in our history. And I think it's a great combination of sales execution, the products and the full suite of products that we're offering that is really tailored to exactly what clients are looking for now.

是的。關於收入留存方面，這一點非常重要，我們可能會在這次電話會議上多次提及。中端市場確實出現了顯著成長。正如我們大約一年前所說，當時存在著一種被壓抑的需求，人們之前的一些購買決策尚未做出。現在這種需求已經釋放出來，我們在中端市場取得了巨大的成功，這可能是我們歷史上在中階市場表現最強勁的一年。我認為這得益於我們出色的銷售執行力、優質的產品以及我們提供的全套產品組合，這些產品真正做到了精準滿足客戶當前的需求。

So we've had a lot of success there, which certainly helps on the revenue retention from a go-forward standpoint. Not only are we selling better in that mid-market, but we're retaining in a very strong way as well.

因此，我們在該領域取得了很大的成功，這無疑有助於未來收入的持續成長。我們不僅在中端市場銷售業績較好，而且客戶留存率也非常高。

Our next question will come from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的凱文麥克維。

Great. And congratulations. I don't know if this is for Marty or Efrain, but clearly, the retention feels like it's structurally at a higher level, like it may have been flow within a higher level of range. So maybe just help us understand kind of what drove that? Was that kind of just the service post-COVID or a more robust product offering? Is there any way to kind of think about what drove the structural? And again, realizing it probably comes off, but it feels like you're in a structurally higher level clearly than where you were in kind of '07.

太好了，恭喜！我不知道這是給 Marty 還是 Efrain 的，但很明顯，用戶留存率的結構性提升感覺更高了，就像是在更高層次的業務流程中實現了成長。所以，您能否幫我們分析一下是什麼因素促成了這種提升？是疫情後服務品質的提升，還是更強大的產品組合？有沒有什麼方法可以分析這種結構性提升的驅動因素？我知道這可能有點誇張，但感覺你們現在的結構性水平明顯高於 2007 年的水平。

Yes, I'll start. I definitely think, Kevin, that there's consistency there. So I think structurally, you're right. We've seen really better from a controllable perspective, we've definitely seen a trend of continued strength there. I think part of it is really the product side. Certainly, I'll take it from the product side and then have John talk about the rest of it. The products have just been very responsive and the continued use by the clients and their employees have made the retention stick.

好的，我先來。凱文，我確實認為這方面存在一致性。所以從結構上看，你說得對。從可控因素來看，情況確實好轉了很多，而且我們明顯看到了持續成長的趨勢。我認為部分原因在於產品方面。當然，我會先從產品方面談起，然後讓約翰談談其他方面。產品反應非常好，顧客及其員工的持續使用也提高了顧客留存率。

We've talked about that for many years, but I don't think that's ever been stronger, and it really accelerated during the pandemic as people were much more distributed in a workforce. Remote workforces really got to use and had to use the technology more the mobile app for example, and online use as well, but the mobile app really got clients and their employees to use it more. That leads to better retention because clients and employees don't want to give it up because they -- things like Pre-Check. They're seeing their check before it's cut. Hey, they are seeing what their time is that they turned in. Everything looks good. They know what they're going to get paid.

我們討論這個問題很多年了，但我認為它從未像現在這樣重要，尤其是在疫情期間，隨著人們工作地點的分散化，這種趨勢更是加速發展。遠端辦公人員必須更多地使用各種技術，例如行動應用程式和線上工具，但行動應用程式尤其促使客戶及其員工更頻繁地使用它。這有助於提高客戶留存率，因為客戶和員工都不願放棄使用，例如預檢功能。他們可以在付款前看到自己的工資，了解他們提交的工作時間，一切看起來都很清晰，他們知道自己最終會拿到多少錢。

They're able to change their retirement or see their retirement funds on the mobile app and change everything. They're able to onboard in a paperless fashion. And so they're making their own direct deposit changes, their bank changes and other things. So all of that, as we talked about over the last few years, I think, has led to that structural improvement, which is, hey, the employees of my client want to stay with Paychex because they're invested in us not just the client's payroll or HR person.

他們可以透過手機應用程式更改退休計劃或查看退休金帳戶，並進行所有必要的更改。他們還可以以無紙化方式完成註冊。因此，他們可以自行更改直接存款、銀行帳戶以及其他設定。正如我們過去幾年討論的那樣，我認為所有這些改進最終促成了結構性改進，也就是說，我的客戶的員工願意繼續使用 Paychex，因為他們對我們公司有信心，而不僅僅是對客戶的薪資部門或人力資源部門。

So I'll ask John to add to that as well, but I think that's a big piece of it.

所以我也會請約翰補充一下，但我認為這是其中很重要的一部分。

Yes. No, Marty. And Kevin, I would say this is probably a multiyear story. You go back before COVID, things we've been doing in our service model to differentiate our service focus, things we're doing relative to competitive retention triggers, using AI and analytics to anticipate where we may have issues. All of those things have really led to us getting a better handle on our controllable losses. And if you look -- you go back to '18 or in fiscal year '19, you can really begin to see that dramatic piece.

是的。不，馬蒂。還有凱文，我想說這可能是一個持續多年的故事。在回顧新冠疫情之前，我們一直在服務模式上進行調整，以凸顯我們的服務重點；我們也針對競爭對手的客戶留存率指標採取了相應的措施；我們也利用人工智慧和分析來預測可能出現的問題。所有這些舉措都讓我們更好地控制了可控損失。如果你回顧一下──例如2018年或2019財年，你就能真正看到其中的顯著變化。

I would tell you, particularly to Marty's point, not only the -- what we've done from a service perspective with relationship management and the upper market. Things we're doing there in our HR outsourcing pieces, but we know that product attachment particularly in retirement, particularly in HR, particularly attachment and utilization of our Flex product and technology tools lead to stickiness and we've been very aggressive in introducing our clients to that capability. And so that's also creating a degree of stickiness.

我想特別指出，正如馬蒂所說，我們不僅從服務角度出發，在關係管理和高端市場方面做了大量工作，還在人力資源外包業務中有所建樹。我們深知，產品依從性，尤其是在退休保障方面，尤其是在人力資源領域，特別是對我們Flex產品和技術工具的依從性和使用，能夠增強客戶黏著度。我們一直積極地向客戶介紹這些功能，這也有助於提高客戶黏著度。

I mean just -- I look at this all the time and, in fact, our price value losses were actually less this past fiscal year than they were at the record year. And if I go back to '18 and '19, it's about half of what we would typically have seen historically. So there's a structural component to this that we're going to continue to execute. There's more we can be doing there. And I feel good about what we can do on the controllable side. The uncontrollable is always the thing we're monitoring and watching.

我的意思是——我一直在關注這個問題，事實上，上個財年我們的股價損失實際上比歷史最高年份還要少。如果回顧2018年和2019年，損失大約只有歷史平均值的一半。所以這其中存在一些結構性因素，我們會繼續前進。我們還可以做得更多。我對我們能夠控制的因素感到滿意。至於不可控因素，我們始終密切注意。

Got it. And then just 1 quick follow-up. Efrain, I'll ask, I don't know if you could tell us like in terms of the fourth quarter investment, it sounds like it was a little more variable. Is there any way to kind of frame what that was? And I'd imagine it was more kind of variable as opposed to fixed costs that would kind of repeat in 2023. Is that fair?

明白了。還有一個後續問題。埃弗雷恩，我想問一下，關於第四季的投資，聽起來好像波動比較大。能具體解釋一下嗎？我猜想這部分支出更多的是變動性支出，而不是像固定成本那樣會在2023年重複出現。我的理解對嗎？

Well, I guess. So Kevin, let me answer it in a slightly different way, and then hopefully, it's responsive to what you're saying. So they were a mixture of onetime things that we did that were variable. There were things that we did structurally to increase wages in certain areas, and then there were things that we put in place for as long-term incentive. So I would say one of them was -- one of those with respect to employees was more onetime. And the other 2 were structural and will be there longer term.

嗯，我想是的。凱文，那我換個方式回答，希望這樣能更好地回應你剛才說的話。我們採取的措施包括一些一次性的、不固定的措施，有些是為了提高特定地區工資而採取的結構性措施，以及一些作為長期激勵措施的方案。就員工而言，其中一項措施是一次性的，而另外兩項是結構性的，將會長期實施。

There were some other items that were not wage related that were also variable that we did in the fourth quarter. So it was a mix of both. I wouldn't characterize it one way or the other in terms of percentages. But there were 3 buckets there that ended up being part of the expense base.

第四季還有一些與工資無關的變動項目。所以情況比較複雜，既有工資相關的，也有變動項目。我不會用百分比來具體描述。但最終，這三類項目都計入了支出基數。

And I think as Efrain said, all of that, obviously, is in the guidance of increasing the margin. So even though some are more structural and ongoing wage expense or bonus expense, that's all in the increasing operating margin over 40% next year in the guidance.

正如埃弗雷恩所說，所有這些顯然都包含在提高利潤率的預期之中。因此，即使其中一些是結構性的、持續性的薪資或獎金支出，也都包含在明年營業利潤率超過40%的預期目標中。

Yes, that's important.

是的，這很重要。

Our next question will come from Bryan Bergin with Cowen.

下一個問題將來自 Cowen 公司的 Bryan Bergin。

So commentary on 4Q is broadly positive here. But I'm hoping you could dig in more specifically on some of those key lending client indicators and what those have been telling you in recent weeks. So can you give us a sense on what you're specifically measuring there?

所以，目前對第四季的評價大致上是正面的。但我希望您能更具體地深入探討一些關鍵的貸款客戶指標，以及這些指標在最近幾週向您傳遞的訊息。您能否簡單介紹一下您具體衡量的是哪些指標？

Yes. So Bryan, what we did was we kind of dusted off forward indicators that we were looking at during COVID. So we go down to daily punches, buying plywood, daily punches. I'm talking about daily hours clock by employees at our clients. So obviously, we have access to that information. We're looking at that on a daily, weekly, monthly basis to understand what are the trends. We look at sales and we look at losses, that's pretty obvious. And then we look at other micro indicators in terms of engagement with our systems and platforms.

是的。布萊恩，我們所做的，就是重新審視我們在新冠疫情期間關注的一些前瞻性指標。例如，我們關注員工的每日打卡記錄，包括膠合板的採購情況等等。我指的是我們客戶公司員工的每日工時記錄。顯然，我們可以獲得這些資訊。我們會按日、週、月進行分析，以了解趨勢。我們會關注銷售額和虧損情況，這很正常。然後，我們也會關注其他一些微觀指標，例如使用者對我們系統和平台的使用。

We put all of that together and look at those indicators to tell us, are we seeing any sharp changes on top of all of that, Marty mentioned, we have the -- not the IHS employment index that we're looking at 350,000 clients, what's happening with that base. And when you put that all in the blender at the moment, it doesn't look significantly different than the trends we've been seeing in the first half of the year.

我們將所有這些因素綜合起來，並觀察這些指標，以判斷除了上述所有因素之外，是否還出現了任何顯著變化。正如馬蒂所提到的，我們關注的不是IHS就業指數，而是35萬名客戶的就業狀況。當我們把所有這些因素綜合起來分析時，目前的情況看起來與我們上半年看到的趨勢並沒有顯著差異。

So look, you guys are looking at a ton of different pieces of information. All I can say is with respect to our corner of the HCM world and our corner of this part of the economy, things are looking about the way they look. And at this point, neither inflation nor the sharp beginning to be sharp rises and interest rates seem to be slowing things down. Having said that, I will temper, as you all know, with a note of caution things could change. But at this point, we're not seeing it.

所以，你們現在看到的都是各種各樣的資訊。我只能說，就我們所在的胡志明市地區以及我們所處的這個經濟領域而言，目前的情況大致如此。就目前而言，無論是通膨還是利率的急劇上升（儘管這種上升趨勢已經開始），似乎都沒有減緩經濟成長。話雖如此，正如你們所知，情況可能會發生變化，但我還是要提醒一句：謹慎起見，情況可能會改變。但就目前而言，我們還沒有看到任何變化。

Yes. The thing that's consistent, Bryan, is the demand. Small and midsized businesses still seeing a great demand for products and services, and it's finding people. So job growth, if anything, if it slowed in the index, this is under 50 employees. As Efrain said, the growth is still there but it's slowed a little bit. It's more because you're not being able to find the employees. Everybody knows that. You're hearing particularly frontline leisure and hospitality and other service functions. Trying to find people. The demand is still there. So there's a hunger for the need.

是的。布萊恩，不變的是需求。中小企業對產品和服務的需求依然旺盛，他們也找到了合適的員工。所以，如果說就業成長指數放緩，也只是指員工人數少於50人的企業。正如埃弗雷恩所說，成長依然存在，只是速度略有放緩。這主要是因為企業招不到員工。大家都知道這一點。尤其是一線休閒娛樂、飯店餐飲和其他服務業，都在努力招募。需求依然存在，所以企業仍然渴望獲得這些職位。

And you'll hear it over and over. The reason that ASO and PEO had performed so well in sales and client retention is because there is such a need for HR support in recruiting and hiring and engaging and training. I mean, there is just a huge need for not only our technology in the HCM space but our over 650 HR specialists who are there to help them with those things.

你會一遍又一遍地聽到這樣的說法。 ASO 和 PEO 在銷售和客戶留存方面表現如此出色的原因在於，企業對人力資源支援在招聘、僱用、員工互動和培訓方面有著巨大的需求。我的意思是，企業不僅需要我們在人力資本管理 (HCM) 領域的技術，還需要我們超過 650 位人力資源專家來幫助他們處理這些事務。

Okay. And then as we think about fiscal '23 and the forecast you built, can you unpack within management solutions specifically, are you still anticipating ASO retirement and some of these other areas to grow double digits versus kind of the payroll and exam. Can you just help us with the underlying business areas in that segment and how you're thinking about growth in '23?

好的。那麼，當我們展望2023財年以及您所做的預測時，您能否具體分析一下管理解決方案的情況？您是否仍然預期ASO退休以及其他一些領域能夠實現兩位數增長，而不是像工資和考試那樣？您能否幫我們分析一下該業務板塊的具體業務領域，以及您對2023年成長的預期？

Yes, that's about right. I think that we see strong demand in those areas continuing through '23. Obviously, on the HCM side, which we haven't said specifically, but which is implicit. You're not going to see the macro uplift in terms of the number of employees on the payroll. That just is part of the recovery from the pandemic. That's normalized partly based on some of the things that Marty has said. But demand for all of the other management solution services is still very, very robust, I would say. And we're very bullish on all of those other businesses.

是的，差不多就是這樣。我認為這些領域的強勁需求會持續到2023年。當然，在人力資本管理（HCM）方面，雖然我們沒有明確提及，但這是顯而易見的。員工人數方面不會有宏觀成長。這只是疫情後復甦的一部分。根據Marty先前提到的一些情況，這種情況已經部分恢復正常。但我認為，對其他所有管理解決方案服務的需求仍然非常強勁。我們對所有這些業務都非常看好。

Yes. The other thing that we haven't mentioned yet is that the work that we did, I mentioned employee retention tax credits and the paycheck protection loans, the employee retention tax credit service that we really -- the teams really got down this to a very tight process. And we were very successful in getting $8 billion between those credits and other credits to our clients. That has helped actually spur additional sales where they said, "Hey, now that you've given me all this value. I think the average employee retention tax credit was around $180,000 per pretty small business at times."

是的。還有一點我們還沒提到，那就是我們所做的工作，我剛才提到了員工留任稅收抵免和薪資保障貸款，以及我們團隊真正精簡的員工留任稅收抵免服務流程。我們非常成功地為客戶爭取了總計80億美元的稅收抵免和其他抵免。這實際上促進了額外的銷售，客戶們說：「嘿，你們現在給了我這麼多價值。」我記得當時平均每個小型企業能拿到大約18萬美元的員工留任稅收抵免。

That generated a need to say, hey, let me try your HR service. Let me do some other things. And we see that continue -- that we'll be continue to have success with TC in this year. We're already off to a good start this year. So a lot of clients still finding a huge benefit from getting that government subsidy.

這促使人們提出這樣的需求：嘿，讓我試試你們的人力資源服務。讓我做點其他事情。我們看到這種需求仍在持續下去——今年我們將繼續在TC方面取得成功。今年我們已經開局良好。因此，許多客戶仍然從獲得政府補貼中受益匪淺。

Our next question will come from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·埃爾-阿薩爾。

I was wondering if you could give us an update on mix of your sales channels. I know that digital is clearly a highlight of the model. I'm just curious in terms of how the various contributions from your different sales channels have trended over time.

我想了解貴公司銷售通路組合的最新情況。我知道數位化通路顯然是貴公司銷售模式的一大亮點。我只是想了解一下，隨著時間的推移，各個銷售管道的貢獻金額變化趨勢如何。

John, do you want to?

約翰，你願意嗎？

Yes. Yes. Yes, as you can imagine, we've continued to use and seeing digital sales continue to increase, particularly in the pandemic. What I would tell you, both in terms of our surepayroll.com and paychex.com, we've seen good attach rate there and good traction there. But I would also say really across all of our sales channels, we've seen very strong demand characteristics. And we're finding clients doing more hybrid shopping. So starting off maybe on paychex.com and then ending up in a discussion about how we can help them with ERTC and then other products and services.

是的，正如您所想，我們一直在持續使用數位管道，並且看到數位銷售額持續成長，尤其是在疫情期間。就我們的 surepayroll.com 和 paychex.com 而言，我們都看到了良好的附加率和成長動能。但我也想說，實際上，在我們所有的銷售管道中，我們都看到了非常強勁的需求特徵。我們發現客戶越來越多地採用混合購物方式。例如，他們可能會先在 paychex.com 上瀏覽，然後與我們討論如何幫助他們獲得 ERTC 以及其他產品和服務。

So I think our sales team has done a very good job of pivoting when the pandemic hit, adjusting to the new reality of how people are buying, and we continue to see and find ways that we can adopt that to drive not only more sales but also sales productivity. That's the other thing that we've seen really increase through this.

所以我認為，疫情爆發後，我們的銷售團隊在轉型方面做得非常出色，他們適應了人們購買方式的轉變。我們也不斷探索和尋找方法，以進一步提升銷售額和銷售效率。這是我們在疫情期間看到的另一個顯著提升。

Okay. And also, if you wouldn't mind commenting on the competitive environment kind of coming out of the pandemic. I'm curious if you perceive any changes, whether you're running into fewer competitors out there in the marketplace or more? Or how would you characterize how the competitive landscape has evolved?

好的。另外，如果不介意的話，能否談談疫情後市場競爭環境的變化？我很想知道您是否感覺到市場競爭格局發生了哪些變化，例如競爭對手是減少了還是增加了？或者您會如何描述競爭格局的演變？

Yes, it's Marty. I'll start. I think we're seeing it fairly consistent, although I would say that things like the ability to offer the PEP plan in retirement, we were the first out of the gate with the PEP plan. We've had great success with the pooled employer plan for retirement. Other competitors have not offered that yet, not all competitors. So we've really jump the market on that one and did very well.

是的，我是馬蒂。我先來。我認為我們目前的情況相當穩定，不過像提供退休人員退休金計劃（PEP）這樣的項目，我們是第一個推出的。我們在雇主聯合退休計畫方面取得了巨大成功。其他競爭對手還沒有提供這項計劃，至少不是所有競爭對手都提供。所以我們在這方面搶佔了市場先機，而且做得非常好。

I think, again, if you go back to us going to the client and prospect and saying, "Hey, we have employment retention tax credits that we think you're you are -- you can receive. And let me go through that with you." We've jumped the gun over a lot of competition with that. I'm surprised that the lack, frankly, of participation in that market. We've done very well with that, which has helped our sales and bring value to prospects and current clients.

我認為，如果我們回到過去，直接去找客戶和潛在客戶，告訴他們：「嘿，我們有員工留任稅收抵免政策，我們認為您可以申請。讓我來詳細解釋一下。」我們在這方面搶佔了先機，領先於許多競爭對手。坦白說，我很驚訝這個市場參與度這麼低。我們在這方面做得非常好，這不僅促進了我們的銷售，也為潛在客戶和現有客戶帶來了價值。

So I think, generally, the competitive environment is the same, but actually -- but I also think that some of our product improvements and introductions have really positioned us a little bit stronger. I think particularly in the mid-market. Mid-market that we haven't been as strong. I think if you went back 4 or 5 years ago is we wanted to be the introduction of the products over the last 3 years really positioned us to have a really strong sales response this last year, and it's continuing into the first quarter. So we're feeling very good about the mid-market in particular.

所以我覺得，整體而言，競爭環境依然如故，但實際上——我也認為我們的一些產品改進和新品推出確實讓我們在市場中佔據了更有利的地位。尤其是在中端市場。我們之前在中階市場的表現並不突出。我認為，如果回顧四、五年前，我們想要打造的品牌，在過去三年裡推出的新產品確實讓我們在去年取得了非常強勁的銷售業績，而且這種勢頭延續到了今年第一季。因此，我們對中端市場尤其充滿信心。

Our next question will come from Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

下一個問題將來自美國銀行的傑森·庫柏伯格。

Just wanted to start on HR management. I know you mentioned increased attach rates there and wondering if you can provide any quantification perhaps on that front for certain products that are driving that dynamic?

我只是想先談談人力資源管理方面的問題。我知道您提到過附加率的提高，我想知道您能否提供一些量化數據，特別是針對那些推動這一趨勢的特定產品？

Yes, Jason, we'll update the number of clients in the 10-K. So you'll see that we're approaching -- we're between 40,000 and 50,000 clients. You'll see a pretty strong double-digit growth in the number of clients there, too. We'll give you an exact number that you can look at when we file the 10-K in a few weeks.

是的，傑森，我們會在10-K表格中更新客戶數量。你會看到我們的客戶數量接近——大概在4萬到5萬之間。你還會看到客戶數量實現了兩位數的強勁成長。幾週後提交10-K表格時，我們會提供給你一個確切的數字。

And John mentioned, I think that we hit over 2 million work-site employees in the HR space between our products and HR outsourcing. And also a great attachment and things like time and attendance. So, we've been -- even something that we don't talk about as much time and attendance. We've introduced the new latest technology, iris scan clocks. These are clocks whether you're wearing a mask or not, you don't -- they're not touch. They're kiosks that you just use your iris, your eyes to scan, between that and the mobile punch in and punch out, we've seen very good attachment in time and attendance.

約翰提到，我認為我們透過產品和人力資源外包服務，在人力資源領域涵蓋了超過200萬個工作場所的員工。此外，我們在考勤等方面也取得了顯著成效。我們一直在——即使是我們不太常提及的考勤方面——也推出了最新的虹膜掃描打卡機。這種打卡機無需接觸，無論是否佩戴口罩，只需用眼睛掃描虹膜即可。結合移動打卡，我們在考勤方面取得了非常好的效果。

When you have time and attendance and Flex you now can use Pre-Check. So Pre-Check is now sending a note as I said to employees and saying, okay, we've got you recording this many hours of working. This is your check, do you see any issues with it? If you don't see issues, let us know that you confirmed it. If you have issues, let your employer know. We're seeing about 5% of the time that they're finding some issue that the employer, their employer didn't catch something right. And that's resolving the issue before the payrolls cut. That is a huge benefit.

如果您已經安裝了考勤系統和彈性工作制，現在可以使用預檢功能。正如我剛才所說，預檢功能會向員工發送通知，告知他們您已記錄了多少工時。這是您的工時記錄，您是否發現任何問題？如果您沒有發現問題，請告知我們您已確認。如果您發現問題，請告知您的雇主。我們發現，大約有 5% 的情況下，員工會發現雇主遺漏了某些資訊。這樣可以在薪資扣減之前解決問題，這確實是一項巨大的優勢。

So you're seeing more attachment and use again by employees of clients. And so the attachment of time and attendance and Pre-Check and retirement, all those things are making better retention, and we're seeing attachment go up.

因此，我們看到客戶員工對系統的依賴性和使用率都在提高。考勤、預檢和退休等功能的依賴性，都有助於提高員工留存率，我們看到員工依賴性也在上升。

Okay. Wanted to ask a follow-up just on float income. It looks like that's forecasted to be up about $30 million year-over-year. And assuming you get a 100% flow-through on that, it looks like that would drive about 60 bps of margin expansion if our math is right, and that would basically get you to the midpoint or roughly the midpoint of your margin guide for fiscal '23, which would kind of suggest flattish margins in the core business. So I wanted to check on all that, if you agree with that general assessment.

好的。我想就浮動收益再問一下。預計浮動收益將年增約 3,000 萬美元。假設這部分收益能 100% 流出，如果我們的計算沒錯，這將帶來約 60 個基點的利潤率提升，這基本上能使你們達到或接近 2023 財年利潤率預期的中點，這意味著核心業務的利潤率將保持平穩。所以我想確認一下，您是否同意這個總體評估。

And also, I guess just wondering if you can remind us a bit on duration of the portfolio, just given the magnitude and trajectory of rate hikes, perhaps some would have thought even a bigger increase in float income for this upcoming year?

另外，我想請您提醒我們投資組合的久期，考慮到升息的幅度和趨勢，或許有人會認為來年的浮動收益收入會有更大的成長？

Yes. Interesting math. I think I wouldn't probably dispute the math, Jason. I would say that the only comment I would make with respect to looking at the business that way is that when you put a plan together, what you're doing is making choices around a lot of different investments even in the plan where we choose to increase margins 50 basis points. There are investment choices being made in that process. So while I think your math is probably not far off, that doesn't indicate that there isn't leverage -- underlying leverage in the business. It's just that we chose to deploy that in different parts of the business could have had greater flow through. Some of it was some of the choices that we made with respect to wages and other items that we discussed previously.

是的，很有意思的數學計算。傑森，我想我不會質疑你的計算結果。關於你用這種方式看待業務，我唯一想補充的是，制定計劃時，你實際上是在圍繞許多不同的投資做出選擇，即使是在我們選擇將利潤率提高50個基點的計劃中也是如此。在這個過程中，你仍然需要做出投資選擇。所以，雖然我認為你的計算結果可能相差不遠，但這並不意味著業務中不存在槓桿——潛在的槓桿。只是我們選擇將這些槓桿運用到業務的不同部分，而這些部分本來可以產生更大的效益。這其中一部分原因在於我們之前討論過的關於工資和其他項目的選擇。

The second thing I'd say on everything we do, especially in the area of how we look at the portfolio, there's an element of conservatism in the way we think about it. This is an unusual year in the sense that the Fed has said certain things. They change it, but they've been saying certain things and we have to incorporate the outlook that they have given to the extent that, that changes, then we'd come back and have different discussions, which could in some ways, impact other parts of the P&L. But we'll have to walk through that when we get there. We have ways to get more leverage if we choose to use it.

第二點我想說的是，我們所做的一切，尤其是在投資組合的建構方面，都秉持保守的原則。今年情況特殊，聯準會發表了一些言論。雖然他們的言論有所變化，但他們一直以來都表達著某些觀點，我們必須將他們所給予的展望納入考量。如果這些展望發生變化，我們會重新進行討論，這可能會在某種程度上影響損益表的其他部分。但具體情況我們到時候再做分析。如果我們需要，我們也有辦法獲得更大的槓桿。

Then the final point is that right now, the duration is a little bit over 3, and our portfolio is positioned about half and half short term and long term. We have a lot of levers to pull there if we want to adjust duration on the portfolio either to go longer or even shorter if we wanted to. So I wouldn't quibble with your math. I just would quibble with your conclusion a little bit about the underlying leverage in the business.

最後一點是，目前久期略高於3，我們的投資組合短期和長期部位大致各佔一半。如果我們想調整投資組合的久期，無論是延長或縮短，我們都有多種方法可以操作。所以我對你的計算沒有異議，只是對你關於公司潛在槓桿的結論略有不同意見。

Our next question will come from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的布萊恩·基恩。

Efrain, how would you compare the preliminary guidance for fiscal year '23. I think you gave last quarter, high single-digit revenue growth, the 50 basis points of margin expansion with the detailed guidance. Just wanted to figure out if there were some adjustments you made either due to macro or some other factors?

Efrain，您如何看待2023財年的初步業績指引？我記得您上個季度給了接近兩位數的營收成長，以及50個基點的利潤率提升，並給出了詳細的業績指引。我想知道您是否因為宏觀經濟或其他因素做出了一些調整？

Yes. I'd say, Bryan, kind of, I was looking at it, I think we said approximately 7 or so. So this is a little bit stronger. The thing that I called out at 3Q was we knew ERTC was not going to recur. I called that out as 1% of this year's revenue. So that was a little bit of a hurdle that we were going to have to overcome. I think we've overcome that to a significant degree, although it won't be as high as it was last year.

是的。布萊恩，我之前也看過，我們當時估計大概是7%左右。所以這次的數據比上次略高一些。我在第三季財報中提到過，我們知道ERTC不會持續產生收入。我當時說它只佔今年收入的1%。所以這是我們必須克服的一個障礙。我認為我們已經基本克服了這個障礙，雖然不會像去年那麼高。

The other factor really was around what happens with employment levels. That really is the tough part. Marty called it out. There's demand there for people, but they are unfortunately not as many people to fill those jobs. So what we're seeing, by the way, in the market is more creative use of things like part-time employees to fill jobs that otherwise would have been filled by full time.

另一個關鍵因素確實在於就業水準。這才是真正的難題。馬蒂也指出了這一點。市場對人才有需求，但可惜的是，求職者人數不足以填補這些職缺。因此，我們看到市場上出現了更靈活的模式，即更多地利用兼職員工來填補原本需要全職員工才能勝任的職位。

That's not a bad thing for us from a wage perspective, but it's a little bit different than the way maybe we would have thought about it 2 or 3 years ago. And then the final point is that, look, the Fed and you are looking at this just like we are. There's a lot of variability there. Let's just put it that way. And so we haven't assumed anything beyond about 3.25% increase. The back half of the year is going to be very interesting from our perspective just in terms of what happens with whether there's a soft landing or not. So we've tried to create a plan that gets us through what we understand the current environment to be.

從薪資角度來看，這對我們來說並非壞事，但這與我們兩三年前的想法略有不同。最後一點是，聯準會和你們都在關注這個問題，就像我們一樣。其中存在著許多變數。這麼說吧。因此，我們沒有假設超過3.25%的漲幅。從我們的角度來看，下半年將會非常有趣，因為經濟能否軟著陸將取決於具體情況。所以我們努力製定了一個計劃，以應對我們所理解的當前環境。

And then so this set of this guidance that you see here is a little bit stronger on the interest side than I was -- than we were when we said this in March, April, because the Fed's changed some of its thinking. Having said all of that, that word salad basically said a lot of stuff could change. So we'll update you. But I would say in terms of the macro, it's probably as changeable as any of the 11 or 12 plans I've been involved with here.

所以，您現在看到的這套指導意見在利率方面比我之前——或者說比我們在三四月份所說的要強硬一些，因為美聯儲的一些想法發生了變化。話雖如此，之前那些含糊其辭的說法基本上表明很多事情都可能改變。我們會及時更新資訊。但就宏觀經濟而言，我認為它可能和我參與制定的11或12項計畫一樣，都具有很大的變動性。

Got it. Got it. And then just at a high level, as there's a lot of worry about a movement towards an economic slowdown and a recession. How does the model hold up just on a high level in the recessionary environment? Or what are some of the variables that could impact the model if we do see a recession in the U.S. and globally?

明白了。明白了。那麼，就宏觀層面而言，鑑於目前許多人都擔心經濟放緩甚至衰退，這個​​模型在衰退環境下表現如何？或者說，如果美國乃至全球真的出現衰退，有哪些因素會影響這個模型？

Yes. I think we called out in the comments, I think, in Marty's where we would see it obviously is you'd see less clients processing. That's the first part that you'd see even before you saw a slowdown in demand. But there's an interesting offset, Bryan, that we saw during the pandemic is that it actually sometimes retention picks up in those kinds of environments. So what's the net-net of that? I don't have a crystal ball on that. I think it would help to offset some of the softness on the revenue side.

是的。我想我們在評論裡也提到過，在馬蒂的評論裡，很明顯，你會看到客戶處理訂單的數量減少。這是你首先會注意到的，甚至在需求放緩之前就會出現這種情況。但布萊恩，我們在疫情期間觀察到一個有趣的現象，那就是在這樣的環境下，客戶留存率有時反而會上升。那麼最終結果如何呢？我無法預知。但我認為這有助於抵消收入方面的一些疲軟。

And it depends also what's happening with interest rates. If interest rates remain at current levels or because of the slowdown, the Fed decides, well, we're going to just ratchet them down. That would have an immediate impact from a revenue standpoint.

這也取決於利率走勢。如果利率維持在當前水平，或者由於經濟放緩，聯準會決定逐步降息，那麼這將對財政收入產生直接影響。

I think if it's gradual, we'll manage through it. And I think we certainly will manage through it on -- we have a good shot at managing through on the bottom line. I think that we're prepared to handle that. If it's abrupt, it's really tough to manage through those kinds of situations.

我認為如果情況是漸進的，我們應該能夠應對。而且我認為我們肯定能夠應對——我們很有可能在盈利方面渡過難關。我認為我們已經做好了應對準備。但如果情況是突然發生的，那就真的很難應付了。

Our next question will come from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

下一個問題將由安德魯·尼古拉斯和威廉·布萊爾提出。

I wanted to follow up on that last comment you made, Efrain. Maybe spend a bit more time, if you could on the flexibility of the expense base in a more challenging economic environment, where are some of the areas where you have a bit more leeway to manage that bottom line relative to an environment that you've been in here over the past year or 2 where margins are at very strong levels?

埃弗雷恩，我想就你上次的評論做個補充。如果你方便的話，能否再多花點時間談談在更具挑戰性的經濟環境下，費用基礎的彈性問題？與過去一兩年利潤率非常高的環境相比，在哪些方面，你們有更大的迴旋餘地來控制利潤？

Well, I'd say 3 things. So the first thing is, in an environment like this, you have to have the appropriate level of areas in the P&L to go if you see a slowdown. And we assume that we'll manage through the current environment as it is. And if it gets a little bit worse, we can handle that. So we've taken appropriate precautions is what I would say on that. That's the first thing.

嗯，我想說三點。首先，在這種環境下，損益表中必須有足夠的資金儲備，以應對業務放緩的情況。我們預計能夠順利度過當前的環境。如果情況稍微惡化，我們也能應付。所以，關於這一點，我想說的是，我們已經採取了適當的預防措施。這是第一點。

The second thing is that we have a unique model where we -- and we do this quite a bit. We don't talk about it, but we do it. To the extent that the client base doesn't flex up in the way we do, we simply don't do the hiring that we expect to do. So if we don't do the hiring, then you get the benefit of the 60% to 65% of -- on the 60%, 65% of the wages that are in the plan.

第二點是，我們採用一種獨特的模式——而且我們經常這樣做。我們不會公開談論，但我們確實這麼做。如果客戶群的成長速度跟不上我們的預期，我們就不會進行預期的招募。所以，如果我們不進行招聘，您就能獲得計畫中薪資的60%到65%的補貼。

And then the third thing is we have flexibility in terms of adjustments on the portfolio to address duration depending on what we're seeing in terms of the macro environment. I think with those tools, if you will, in the toolkit, and there are others, by the way. We should be able to manage through at least any of the environments that are right in front of us.

第三點是，我們可以根據宏觀環境的變化，靈活調整投資組合以應對久期問題。我認為，憑藉這些工具（當然還有其他工具），我們應該能夠應對至少目前擺在我們面前的任何環境。

Now there are certain environments that could improve a lot more challenging. I'd just point this out. One thing is that history is no guide. But in terms of precedent, I remember being here in April of '20, when everyone was gone and the stock went down to $48. And everyone thought that we were not going to be able to manage through. I would say, history has shown that to be incorrect.

現在有些環境的改善難度更高。我只想指出一點。首先，歷史並不能作為參考。但就先例而言，我記得2020年4月的時候，大家都走了，股價跌到了48美元。當時所有人都認為我們無法撐過去。但歷史證明，這種想法是錯的。

Yes. And I think the other thing, during some of those times that could -- during -- depending on the recession, there will be a need for even more need for some -- many clients for HR support. How do I manage my cost down? How do I -- and I think we showed during the pandemic that we could respond to that very well. So we're really quite broad in the way that if it's -- the economy is going fast and you need to hire and you need growth and you need to help with your HR, we're there to help you with the technology and the people to support you. If things turn and it's a recession and you got to manage people out or cost down, we have the products, the technology and the people to help you do that as well.

是的。我認為還有一點，在某些時期──例如經濟衰退期間──很多客戶對人力資源支援的需求會更大。如何降低成本？如何……我認為我們在疫情期間已經證明，我們能夠很好地應對這種情況。所以，我們的服務範圍非常廣泛。如果經濟狀況良好，您需要招募、需要發展，並且需要人力資源的協助，我們將提供技術和人員支援。如果情況逆轉，經濟衰退，您需要裁員或降低成本，我們同樣擁有相應的產品、技術和人員來幫助您。

And I think we showed that as Efrain said in the pandemic when people thought, geez, I don't know, will they be able to keep their margins, we did extremely well. And so we've been able -- we've learned a lot from that and frankly, probably got a few more levers out of the pandemic that we could use during a recessionary period, which is one, obviously, not hiring, as Efrain mentioned, but also drive some other costs out through the fact that we have very remote hybrid workforces now that give you more flexibility even than before and where you're hired to.

我認為我們已經證明了這一點，正如埃弗雷恩在疫情期間所說，當人們都在擔心能否維持利潤率時，我們做得非常好。因此，我們從中吸取了很多經驗，坦白說，我們可能還從疫情中獲得了一些可以在經濟衰退時期利用的手段，其中之一顯然不是像埃弗雷恩提到的那樣增加招聘，而是通過我們現在擁有的遠程混合辦公模式來降低其他一些成本，這種模式比以前更加靈活，也更靈活，不受工作地點的限制。

Great. No, that's all very helpful. And then for the fourth quarter, just a quick question there that I want to clean up. Can you talk a little bit more on kind of the performance of the PEO business specifically relative to the insurance within that segment?

好的。這些資訊都很有幫助。關於第四季度，我還有一個問題想確認一下。能否再詳細談談PEO業務的具體表現，特別是與該板塊保險業務相關的表現？

So do you mean insurance in the PEO or insurance as part of the PEO revenue streams?

所以你指的是PEO（專業雇主組織）內部的保險，還是作為PEO收入來源一部分的保險？

Yes, the latter.

是的，是後者。

Okay. I just want to...

好的。我只是想…

Yes. Do you want to take it?

是的。你想拿嗎？

Yes, I think -- so just so I understand the question, you're talking about the attachment of insurance within the PEO and how the influence of -- is performing?

是的，我想——為了確保我理解你的問題，你是在談論 PEO 內部的保險附加以及它的影響——它的表現如何？

Yes. I guess I'm just -- within that segment, if you could just kind of break down the PEO business relative to the insurance business on a stand-alone basis. That would be helpful.

是的。我想問的是——在這個細分領域內，如果您能單獨分析一下PEO業務相對於保險業務的相對情況，那就太好了。

Yes. So I would say this. I think in the last call, we talked about it, the PO business continues to perform very well, double-digit growth. Insurance slightly below that growth rate, again, but that's really the tale of 2 cities. I would say, again, back to what we said, strong demand for clients to increase benefits to attract and keep employees they have, particularly in the small segment, where they're trying to compete against larger employers, they have to be able to put together a portfolio of benefits that are going to attract and keep their employees. So in the health and benefits, we continue to see good growth there and good demand there. P&C, again, it's been a soft market for a long time. So that's a little bit more of a rate issue, but still see good attachment there -- historical attachment that we've always seen in our base. So still strong performance at the PEO, insurance right behind it, predominantly led by the demand for health and benefits.

是的。所以我想說的是，上次電話會議上我們討論過，專業雇主組織（PEO）業務持續表現強勁，實現了兩位數的成長。保險業務的成長率略低於這個數字，但這確實是兩個截然不同的領域。我想再次強調，正如我們之前所說，客戶對增加福利的需求強勁，以吸引和留住現有員工，尤其是在小型企業領域，他們要與大型雇主競爭，就必須能夠提供一套能夠吸引和留住員工的福利組合。因此，在健康和福利方面，我們持續看到良好的成長和需求。財產和意外保險市場長期以來一直疲軟。這更多的是費率問題，但我們仍然看到良好的客戶依賴——我們一直以來都看到客戶依賴度很高。因此，PEO業務依然表現強勁，保險業務緊隨其後，這主要得益於健康和福利方面的需求。

And the other thing I mentioned in my comments was the broad -- in the PEO, we worked really hard, John's team to broaden the PEO offering. So it's not just about health and dental, envision now. It's really -- as John said, this broader offering that the PEO can bring to small businesses, in particular, to say, "Hey, you can offer other things in insurance, and you can offer more mental health support that is very hot right now, and you can offer other plans that you would not be able to do by yourself." So that is really supported the PEO growth with the creativity that the team has shown in the offerings that we can give them.

我在評論中提到的另一點是，在PEO領域，我們，尤其是John的團隊，一直致力於拓展PEO的服務範圍。所以，現在PEO的服務不再侷限於醫療和牙科保險。正如John所說，PEO能夠為小型企業帶來更廣泛的服務，例如：「嘿，你們可以提供其他保險項目，可以提供更多目前非常熱門的心理健康支持，還可以提供一些你們自己無法提供的計劃。」正是團隊在產品和服務方面展現出的創造力，真正推動了PEO的發展。

Yes. And that's what I thought maybe the other part of the question was the attachment that we saw in the PEO and the attachment in general, we're seeing from our clients, as Marty said, 401(k), health and benefits, gravitating towards these technology tools that they want to be able to provide their employees. Those things have really been across the board very, very well received. And so in our comments, we stated one of the things that we've seen now is the opportunity for us to even add to that attachment. So when you think about now, we're going to add a whole other set of voluntary benefits that we're going to go back and be able to offer to all of our PEO and all of our insurance clients over the course of the open enrollment period, which will start in October and those all will generate revenue.

是的。我之前也想到了這一點，問題的另一部分可能是我們在PEO（專業雇主組織）中看到的附加服務，以及我們從客戶那裡普遍看到的附加服務。正如Marty所說，401(k)計劃、健康和福利，這些服務都傾向於使用這些技術工具來為員工提供服務。這些服務確實受到了各界一致的好評。因此，我們在評論中提到，我們現在看到的一個機會是，我們甚至可以進一步擴展這些附加服務。所以，現在，我們將增加一系列自願性福利，並在10月份開始的開放註冊期內，向我們所有的PEO客戶和保險客戶提供這些福利，所有這些都將帶來收入。

So again, offering more benefits to the clients and their employees is another way that not only does that help the retention, but it also helps the revenue as well. We're seeing good demand in the marketplace there.

所以，再次強調，為顧客及其員工提供更多福利不僅有助於提高顧客留存率，還能提升收入。我們看到市場對這方面的需求很旺盛。

Yes. Sorry, Andrew, the -- as John said, the revenue growth on the insurance side absolutely is lower than based on the fact that workers' comp continues to be a very, very soft market over a number of years.

是的。抱歉，安德魯，正如約翰所說，保險方面的收入成長確實低於預期，因為工傷賠償市場多年來一直非常疲軟。

No, that's helpful. You did a much better job answering it than I did asking it. So I appreciate it.

不，這很有幫助。你的回答比我問得好多了，所以我很感激。

Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Marty, maybe I know you talked a little bit on our recession and, Efrain, you gave a good answer on how you might manage a business. But I'm wondering, was it based on some of the slowdowns you've seen. Would you manage Paychex any different? I mean, would you think that you could continue hiring or investing, would this time be different than in the past based on what you've learned?

馬蒂，我知道你之前稍微談到了經濟衰退，埃弗雷恩，你也很好地闡述了你會如何經營一家企業。但我很好奇，你的回答是否基於你所經歷的一些經濟放緩？你會以不同的方式經營Paychex嗎？我的意思是，你認為你還能繼續招募或投資嗎？基於你學到的經驗教訓，這次的情況會和以往有所不同嗎？

Well, Kartik, right now, as I mentioned, we're not really seeing that slowdown. So yes, I mean, we really got behind at the beginning of last year in hiring because it was difficult on the service side in particular. And we actually made great headway in the last half of the year, John and the HR team to get ahead of that, and we're actually overstaffed right now a little bit going into the fiscal year. So we're very pleased with that. So we're making still strong hiring decisions. The investments that we made in compensation and benefits are attracting. Now we're getting back on track and attracting more not only service but sales individuals and our retention is looking better.

卡爾蒂克，正如我剛才提到的，目前我們並沒有真正感受到業務放緩的跡象。是的，我的意思是，去年年初我們在招募方面確實落後了，尤其是在服務方面，招募難度很高。但約翰和人力資源團隊在下半年取得了顯著進展，扭轉了局面，現在進入新財年，我們的人員配置實際上略微過剩。對此我們非常滿意。因此，我們仍然在積極招募。我們在薪資福利方面的投入正在發揮作用。現在我們正重回正軌，不僅吸引了更多服務人員，也吸引了更多銷售人員，而且我們的員工留任率也在提高。

So yes, I don't think -- I think what we learned, as I mentioned out of the pandemic, though, was that we could manage in a lot of different ways and more remote and hybrid work, handling sales differently. There's more flexibility in where those sales forces are and how they're selling, more digital sales are coming in through the marketplace, and we're well prepared for that. So yes, I think you're always learning, and we certainly learned during the pandemic, and we were very successful. It's all about having the right people in place and making those right decisions, and I think we've made some good ones. Obviously, we're very pleased with the record-breaking year that we had, and we're certainly well set up for fiscal '23 to have another one so.

所以，是的，我不認為——正如我之前提到的，我們從疫情中學到的是，我們可以採用多種不同的管理方式，例如更多遠端和混合辦公模式，以及不同的銷售方式。銷售團隊的辦公地點和銷售方式都更加靈活，更多線上銷售正透過市場管道湧入，而我們對此也做好了充分的準備。所以，是的，我認為學習永無止境，我們在疫情期間也確實學到了很多，而且我們取得了巨大的成功。關鍵在於擁有合適的人才並做出正確的決策，我認為我們做了一些不錯的決策。顯然，我們對創紀錄的一年感到非常滿意，而且我們已為2023財年做好了充分的準備，力爭再創佳績。

And then just, Efrain, one of the areas I think you've had success in is the programs like California kind of retirement mandates that they've had for SMBs. I'm wondering how successful that plan has been and maybe you can talk about if you continue to expect growth in that business.

埃弗雷恩，我認為您在加州針對中小企業推出的退休金強制計劃等項目上取得了成功。我想知道這項計劃的成效如何，以及您是否預期該業務會繼續成長。

Yes, I'll take that, Kartik. It's Marty. I think that was very successful. We were a little early on some of the advertising last summer because the mandate -- businesses don't always respond to mandates that are going to have a penalty effect of really this month. And so we were a little bit early on that. But what we found was the advertising that we did had really generated a lot of understanding that Paychex is a retirement provider to small business. And even fighting against free, California had a very basic retirement IRA plan for free. We've done very well. So retirement, we've had the fastest growth in retirement in -- retirement sales in California, obviously, in our history. And so we see the approach that we made there, maybe we've learned a little on timing of marketing and advertising. But the approach that we made there has been very successful, and we think that will certainly carry to other states and maybe even a federal mandate if it comes out on retirement as well in the Secure Act and so forth.

是的，我接受，Kartik。我是Marty。我認為那次非常成功。去年夏天，我們的一些廣告投放時間稍早，因為強制規定——企業並不總是會對本月即將生效的、具有懲罰性影響的強制性規定做出反應。所以我們當時確實有點操之過急。但我們發現，我們做的廣告確實讓很多人了解了Paychex是一家為小型企業提供退休金服務的機構。即使面對加州免費提供的基本退休IRA計劃，我們也做得非常好。退休金業務，顯然，是我們歷史上成長最快的——加州的退休金銷售額。因此，我們看到了我們在加州採取的策略，也許我們在行銷和廣告的時機掌握方面學到了一些經驗。但我們採取的策略非常成功，我們認為這肯定會推廣到其他州，甚至可能推廣到聯邦政府，如果《安全法案》等也出台關於退休金的強制性規定的話。

Our next question will come from Peter Christiansen with Citi.

下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的彼得·克里斯蒂安森。

I was just wondering, I know you called it out a little bit before activity in the staffing industry, your staffing clients. I know sometimes that's been a leading indicator at both ends of the cycle. Just wondering if you could -- if we can dig into a little bit of the color you're seeing there and maybe some implications that you're thinking about around that.

我只是想問，我知道您之前在人力資源行業，也就是您的客戶群中，我稍微提到過一些相關活動。我知道這有時可以作為週期兩端的先行指標。我只是想問您能否——我們能否深入探討您觀察到的市場情緒，以及您對此的一些思考。

Yes. That's a really interesting question, and some of you are staffing analysts. So I'd defer a little bit to you. But here's what we do just to level set with everyone. What we do, and we've had a very, very successful year this year is provide funding for typically small, medium-sized, some larger staffing firms. So we have a window into what is happening with staffing trends in the business. And right now, the staffing businesses are doing very, very well. So there's a lot of demand for services, and you can argue, well, why is that? It seems that in portions of the economy -- certain portions of the economy in skilled labor, you're seeing a lot of demand. Many of you probably know this, but skilled occupations like nursing and other technical disciplines. There's a lot of temp labor that is used in that part of the business. But what's been surprising, I would say, over the last 3 to 6 months has been the rebound in what's called light industrial. So that's more typically blue collar work.

是的，這確實是個很有趣的問題，而且你們當中有些人是人力資源分析師，所以我想先聽聽你們的意見。不過，為了和大家達成共識，我先簡單介紹一下我們的工作。我們主要為小型、中型以及一些大型人力資源公司提供資金，今年我們在這方面取得了非常非常大的成功。因此，我們能夠了解產業人力資源趨勢的發展。目前，人力資源公司的發展勢頭非常好，對服務的需求也很大。你可能會問，這是為什麼？似乎在某些經濟領域──例如技術工人──需求量很大。你們很多人可能都知道，像是護理和其他技術類職業，這些行業需要大量的臨時工。但令人驚訝的是，在過去的3到6個月裡，所謂的輕工業，也就是通常意義上的藍領工作，也出現了反彈。

It's -- the demand is robust. And it's projected to continue to do that through the end of the year. It could be argued that perhaps people are starting to position themselves for more flexibility on the workforce, but we don't have any indications of that. What we know is that the number in absolute terms of temp workers is up and that we're benefiting from that demand.

需求強勁，預計這種勢頭將持續到年底。有人可能會說，人們或許開始為更靈活的工作安排做好準備，但我們目前沒有任何跡象表明這一點。我們所知道的是，臨時工的絕對數量有所增加，而我們也正從中受益。

That's helpful, Efrain. And then again, back on things like the PEP plan, where you just had phenomenal growth there. And I realize like products attached products like that, certainly help things like retention and value-based pricing for sure. But is there any way you could frame what type of contribution like a product like that has had to overall growth, I guess, in the last year.

這很有幫助，埃弗雷恩。再說回PEP計劃，你們在這方面取得了驚人的成長。我知道像這類產品，尤其是附加產品，肯定有助於提高客戶留存率和基於價值的定價。但是，您能否具體說明一下，在過去一年裡，這類產品對整體成長的貢獻究竟有多大？

Yes. So I called it out because I think it's fair to say it's not -- it's -- I'm going to characterize it 2 ways. The first way I'd say it's been a little bit above 1% of revenue for the year. So it obviously was a great product and -- but I would highlight something that Marty said. The great thing about a product like that is the profound impact it has on clients. And we had a review of it. If you saw the stories they're really, really important. And they're important not just because you feel good about them. That's good. It's good to feel good. But the reality is that it had a lot of impact on the clients that got it and the testimonials are amazing.

是的。所以我特意提一下，因為我覺得可以公平地說，它——它——我要從兩個方面來描述它。首先，我認為它只佔全年收入的1%多一點。所以它顯然是一款很棒的產品，而且——但我還要強調馬蒂說的一點。像這樣的產品最棒的地方在於它對客戶的深遠影響。我們做過一次評估。如果你看過那些案例，你會發現它們真的非常重要。它們之所以重要，不僅僅是因為你看了之後感覺良好。感覺良好當然很好。但現實是，它對購買了這款產品的客戶產生了巨大的影響，而且客戶的評價也令人驚訝。

But I think the second part of it is Marty mentioned that there's still opportunity in the base. So we expect that this year, we're going to continue to get benefit, not the same level of benefit we got last year, but we'll continue to get...

但我認為第二點是馬蒂提到的，基地裡仍然有機會。所以我們預計今年我們將繼續受益，雖然不如去年那麼豐厚，但我們仍會繼續受益…

Efrain, just to clarify, I think you're talking about ERTC, he might have said PEP. Did you say PEP, Peter?

埃弗雷恩，我再確認一下，我想你指的是ERTC，他可能說的是PEP。彼得，你說的是PEP嗎？

Yes, PEP.

是的，PEP。

Okay. I'm sorry about the -- I apologize. Yes. PEP is a little bit different. So the final point I would say on that simply is that whether it's PEP or ERTC, there's a set or a suite of services that we provide to clients that really are very important in terms of cementing the relationship with Paychex. So this year's ERTC, last year it was PEP. We're constantly on the lookout for opportunities to cement that relationship with clients. So that's what I'd say. Sorry I thought we were talking about ERTC. I apologize.

好的。抱歉，我剛才說錯了。是的，PEP 的情況略有不同。關於這一點，我最後想說的是，無論是 PEP 還是 ERTC，我們都會為客戶提供一系列服務，這些服務對於鞏固與 Paychex 的合作關係至關重要。今年是 ERTC，去年是 PEP。我們一直在尋找機會來鞏固與客戶的關係。這就是我想說的話。抱歉，我以為我們在討論 ERTC。我道歉。

Yes. I would also probably add to that, Peter. Those things are cousins in somewhat of an innovation machine that we're driving with our nearly 700 HR professionals who are out there talking to our clients on a daily basis. And I say that because for whatever reason, other companies are deciding not to be as supportive in these tax credit areas, and in the PEP plan, which is really resonating with small business owners because of some of the complexities that it reduces from a traditional 401(k) plan.

是的。彼得，我可能還要補充一點。這些專案在某種程度上是我們正在推動的創新機制的一部分，我們擁有近700名人力資源專業人員，他們每天都在與客戶溝通。我之所以這麼說，是因為不知何故，其他公司在這些稅收抵免領域，以及PEP計劃方面，並沒有給我們足夠的支持。 PEP計畫之所以能引起小企業主的共鳴，是因為它簡化了傳統401(k)計畫的一些複雜環節。

And so again, I look at this very closely. Those are 2 products that when I look at the clients that are attaching those, we see a measurable improvement in our overall retention and more ability to price, price as you said, the price value package that we can get from those clients is much good as well. And they're appreciative because there's not a lot of other places they can go to get that assisted.

所以，我再次非常仔細地研究了這一點。這兩款產品，當我觀察使用它們的客戶時，我們發現整體客戶留存率有了顯著提升，而且定價能力也更強了。正如您所說，我們能從這些客戶那裡獲得的價值套餐也更好了。他們對此非常感激，因為他們很難在其他地方獲得類似的幫助。

So it's a combination of us leveraging our technology and then also having the individuals in the field to help really advise and support them in building a package and getting that done that's really resonating. And again, they're just real appreciative I mean, Efrain mentioned the stories. I mean I have people calling me and thanking me for saving their business with ERTC and we hear the stories about how well the PEP plan is helping our clients.

所以，這得益於我們技術的運用，以及第一線人員的指導和支持，他們幫助客戶制定方案並最終成功實施，這確實引起了廣泛共鳴。而且，他們真的非常感激，就像埃弗雷恩提到的那些故事一樣。我經常接到客戶的電話，感謝我透過ERTC挽救了他們的生意，我們也聽到了很多關於PEP計畫如何幫助客戶的故事。

Yes. Just sorry about that. I heard PEP and I interpreted to be ERTC. The other thing I would say is that the quantification of that is that it's part of the growth in management solutions. If you take what happened to our retirement business, pre-PEP and post-PEP, we took that business from kind of mid-single digits to upper single digits and approaching 10% growth on a revenue basis. And it's been really driven on the back of the ability to offer a PEP solution. So sorry about the digression in the ERTC.

是的，真抱歉。我聽到了PEP，誤以為是ERTC。另外，我想說的是，量化分析表明，這是管理解決方案成長的一部分。如果我們比較一下PEP實施前後我們退休業務的變化，就會發現該業務的成長率從個位數中段提升到了接近10%，營收成長接近10%。這主要得益於我們能夠提供PEP解決方案。所以，很抱歉剛才離題談到了ERTC。

No. No worries. That's great color. And John, I really like the innovation machine cousins. I might steal that. Last one for me. Efrain, you mentioned it earlier before or maybe John did price-to-value losses have been really minimal but you are seeing ramping up discounting promotional activity from some peers in the market. Just overall, your sense for -- across the market for pricing elasticity and whether that's different pre-pandemic versus today?

不，別擔心。這顏色真棒。約翰，我真的很喜歡你們的創新機器表親。我可能會借鏡。最後一個問題。埃弗雷恩，你之前提到過，或者約翰也提到過，價格價值損失非常小，但你注意到市場上一些同行正在加大折扣促銷力度。總的來說，你對整個市場的價格彈性有什麼看法？疫情前後的價格彈性有何不同？

I think it feels -- we feel pretty good, obviously, about prices. I think Efrain mentioned earlier on the price increase, toward the higher end, but it depends on the product and the bundle and so forth. But I think we feel very good about the fact that other than how strong the recession impacts that. But right now, we feel very good that the things that John is talking about and that we've been saying those products are driving much more retention and less focus on price. The price value losses have come down, as John mentioned, and it's been very much because of the value that we're adding, I think, with the other products, the value that we added by giving -- by bringing an employee retention tax credit to them or helping them for -- get their PPP loan forgiven very quickly and easily.

我覺得——顯然，我們對價格感覺相當不錯。我想Efrain之前提到過價格上漲，尤其是在高端產品方面，但這取決於產品、套餐等等。但除了經濟衰退的影響程度之外，我們對目前的情況感到非常滿意。目前，我們非常欣慰的是，正如John所說，我們一直在強調的，這些產品正在顯著提高客戶留存率，並減少對價格的關注。正如John所提到的，價格價值損失已經減少，我認為這很大程度上歸功於我們透過其他產品增加的價值，例如我們為員工提供的留任稅收抵免，或幫助他們快速且方便地獲得PPP貸款豁免。

Those things have really impacted the price elasticity and the fact that, "hey, this is driving value for me and therefore, it's well worth it." And we really -- I think we really, as a company, sees the opportunity during the pandemic to show much more value than we probably had in the past. We took that opportunity that we were given that we could be there for them through a difficult pandemic time to help them retain people, hire people, handle their teams remotely with paperless digital solutions. All of that really benefited us and is continuing as we kind of come out of that period as well.

這些因素確實影響了價格彈性，也影響了「嘿，這能為我創造價值，所以物有所值」的觀念。我們——我認為，作為一家公司，我們確實看到了疫情期間展現比以往更大價值的機會。我們抓住了這個機會，在疫情艱難時期為客戶提供支持，幫助他們留住員工、招募員工，並透過無紙化數位解決方案遠端管理團隊。所有這些都讓我們受益匪淺，而且在我們走出疫情陰霾後，這些益處仍在繼續。

Our next question will come from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。

It's Jonathan on for James. How does your strategy around M&A change in a recessionary environment, particularly if we were to get a material drop in private valuations and you see attractive opportunities?

現在由喬納森代替詹姆斯發言。在經濟衰退環境下，特別是如果私募股權估值大幅下降，而您看到有吸引力的投資機會時，您的併購策略會如何改變？

Well, we'd love that. We're always on the hunt. And I think the valuations have not caught up on that private side at all that we've seen we're still seeing some nice opportunities in various markets that we've talked about in the past, but the valuations don't seem to quite happen yet. So we're expecting typically, it does kind of follow behind the public side of it, we'll see what happens. But with the cash that Efrain talked about, we're well positioned to take advantage of opportunities that come up whether it's a recession or just kind of a repricing on some of the valuations that I think will happen because you can see it already in the private markets where there's a lot of cost cutting and in a lot of much more conservative approaches to things to get themselves positioned better to make sure they don't lose so much on the valuation. So we're watching very closely. We're continuing to talk to those companies that we've talked to in the past, and we'll keep an eye on valuations, but I think it gives even a better opportunity.

當然，我們非常樂意。我們一直在尋找機會。我認為，就我們目前所見，私募市場的估值還沒有跟上公開市場的腳步。我們仍然在之前討論過的各個市場中看到一些不錯的機會，但估值似乎還沒有完全到位。所以我們預計，私募市場的估值通常會落後於公開市場，讓我們拭目以待。但憑藉埃弗雷恩提到的現金儲備，我們完全有能力抓住出現的機會，無論是經濟衰退還是估值重新調整——我認為估值重新調整是必然會發生的，因為我們已經在私募市場看到了這種情況：許多公司都在削減成本，採取更加保守的策略，以更好地調整自身定位，確保不會在估值方面遭受太大損失。所以我們正在密切關注。我們將繼續與之前接觸過的公司保持聯繫，並密切關注估值，但我認為這會帶來更好的機會。

Got it. Appreciate that perspective. And you called out further investment product development and IT. Where are you focused on improving from a product portfolio or a tech perspective?

明白了。感謝您的見解。您也提到了進一步的投資產品開發和IT。從產品組合或技術角度來看，您目前重點關注哪些方面的改進？

Yes. I think it just continues to be from a digital standpoint, particularly, I think, on the sales side, you just -- it's obvious that the buying process is much more about being able to do it themselves. I think John mentioned earlier that it is still a combination of doing the research, some going through and buying themselves and we have that availability, whether it's Flex or Sure. And then there's also those that go so far and then need a sales rep or want a sales rep involved, whether it's digital format, whether it's on the web or whether it's in person or bringing in a sales engineer on the web or in person for a demo. So I think those investments will continue.

是的。我認為從數位化角度來看，尤其是在銷售方面，購買流程顯然更加重視自助作業。約翰之前提到過，購買過程仍然是研究、自行選購和購買相結合的模式，而我們透過Flex或Sure等平台提供了這種便利。此外，還有一些客戶在購買過程中需要銷售代表的協助，或是希望銷售代表參與其中，無論是線上或線下，例如邀請銷售工程師進行產品展示。因此，我認為這方面的投入將會持續下去。

Product investments also road maps are planned out for the next 2 years to lay out much more flexibility on the way we pay. Certainly, from a pay access and pay on demand, we offer that today through partnership as well. But I think that will continue to expand. Earned wage access is something that we see continuing to expand. And just the overall product availability and the ability also to choose who you want to be connected with. So we're very busy from an API standpoint, expanding our set of APIs to if you want to keep certain portions of the business but really gain the power of Flex HR. You have that opportunity.

未來兩年，我們已製定產品投資路線圖，旨在提供更靈活的支付方式。當然，目前我們也透過合作關係提供按需支付和薪資預支服務，但我認為這方面會持續擴展。我們預計薪資預支服務也會持續發展。此外，我們也希望提升產品的整體可用性，並讓使用者選擇想要連結的平台。因此，我們在API方面也投入了大量精力，致力於擴展我們的API介面。如果您希望保留部分業務功能，同時又能充分利用Flex HR的強大功能，我們為您提供了這樣的機會。

So a lot of investment, levels have continued. And actually, we're very proud of the fact that we can produce the margins that we show and that Efrain has talked about and guided to while we're still significantly investing in a digital product set.

因此，我們持續投入了大量資金。事實上，我們非常自豪的是，在繼續大力投資數位產品線的同時，我們還能實現我們所展示的利潤率，這也是埃弗雷恩之前談到並指導我們達到的目標。

Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Mark Marcon。

Wondering -- this question has been asked a little bit, but I want to ask it a different way. If you didn't see all of the macro headlines that are out there, and you're obviously, you're all experienced, you're all aware of the impact of higher rates ultimately from a macro perspective. If we didn't see higher rates and if you didn't see all the macro headlines, how would the guidance have been different?

我很好奇——這個問題之前有人問過，但我還是想換個方式問。假設你們沒有看到所有宏觀經濟方面的新聞，而且你們顯然都很有經驗，也都清楚利率上升最終會對宏觀經濟產生什麼影響。如果我們沒有看到利率上升，如果你們沒有看到所有宏觀經濟方面的新聞，那麼政策指引會有什麼不同呢？

Well, you're more in the...

嗯，你比較傾向於…

I would say this, Mark, if I just kind of disaggregate that question and say I'm looking at the indicators or we're looking at the indicators because it's not me. It's a team of people that are looking at. And we say these are the indicators we're presented with before we put together a plan. It's just hard to say that the plan would be that much different than the plan that we saw. You'd have lower interest rates. You might push a little bit more on the operating side, but it wouldn't be significantly different. I'd just remind people, I share this with the leadership team.

馬克，我想說的是，如果我把這個問題拆解開來，說我正在研究這些指標，或者說我們正在研究這些指標（因為這並非我個人的決定，而是一個團隊在做這件事）。我們會說，這些都是我們制定計劃之前所掌握的指標。很難說最終的計劃會和我們之前看到的計劃有太大的不同。利率可能會降低一些，營運方面可能會稍作調整，但不會有顯著的差異。我還要提醒大家，我會把這些資訊分享給領導團隊。

Pre-pandemic leading into the pandemic, we were at about a 5% CAGR growth rate. Actually, it's a little bit, we were trending up. But if you take the end of the pandemic, our CAGR was about 5% on the top line and 10% on the bottom line. We've come out of the pandemic growing faster than that because going into the pandemic before all of these things occurred, all of the pandemic-related impacts occurred. We had made a lot of investments in automating, digitalizing, digitizing, you name it. We did it all, and we're still doing that.

疫情爆發前，我們的複合年增長率約為5%。實際上，略有上升趨勢。但疫情結束時，我們的營收複合年增長率約5%，利潤複合年增率約10%。疫情過後，我們的成長速度超過了預期，因為在疫情爆發前，所有與疫情相關的衝擊都已經顯現。我們在自動化、數位化等方面進行了大量投資，而且仍在繼續進行中。

And so we -- the business was on an uptrend. And so I would have expected if we were looking at this year that a lot of those actions that are part of the DNA of the way Marty and the team has operated the company would continue and you deliver something like upper single-digit growth and pretty close to double-digit bottom line, which, by the way, there's a long track record of doing in the company. So I guess that's my answer to the question.

所以，當時公司業務正處於上升期。因此，如果展望今年，我原本預期馬蒂和他的團隊一直以來秉持的那些公司營運理念會繼續下去，從而實現接近兩位數的增長率，以及接近兩位數的淨利潤增長——順便一提，公司在這方面有著悠久的成功記錄。所以，我想這就是我對這個問題的回答。

Yes. And I would just add, Mark, when you look at it, so if you assume interest rates go up, and obviously, there's a tailwind, as Efrain mentioned, from the interest rate. On the other hand, that could slow the housing market some. And there's a lot of small business around housing. So that's offsetting it. So there's offsets that we had to take into account, that we take into account as well. And I think overall, as Efrain said, we've really come up through the pandemic and out of the pandemic with a higher growth rate that's been consistent whether the interest rates -- before the interest rates were changing. We'll take the tailwind, but we also know that there's some risk that comes with that for small business development and growth.

是的。馬克，我還要補充一點，如果你假設利率上升，正如埃弗雷恩所提到的，利率上升顯然會帶來利多。但另一方面，這可能會在一定程度上減緩房地產市場。而房地產行業有很多小型企業，所以這些小型企業在某種程度上可以抵消利率上升的影響。因此，我們必須考慮這些相互抵消的因素，我們也確實考慮了這些因素。我認為總的來說，正如埃弗雷恩所說，我們已經成功度過了疫情難關，並且從疫情中恢復過來，實現了較高的增長率，而且無論利率如何變化，這種增長率都保持穩定。我們會享受利率上升帶來的利好，但我們也知道，這對小型企業的發展和成長也存在一定的風險。

That's great, Marty. I mean I just -- my sense is that you probably took into account the macro headlines and probably we're a little bit more conservative than you would have been had you not seen all those macro headlines? Is that a correct assumption?

那太好了，馬蒂。我的意思是，我的感覺是，你可能考慮到了宏觀新聞，所以如果你沒看到那些宏觀新聞，我們可能會比你更保守一些？我的理解對嗎？

Mark, let me answer it this way. So just to be more specific. The challenge that we have, and I think we've been very transparent with The Street is that we tell you what -- we tell you exactly what we know when we say it. And when it isn't right, we call it out. And I'm not saying other competitors don't. Of course, they do. The issue is we have a fair amount of consistency and predictability in the business, not just because that's the way the business is, but that's the way we run the business.

馬克，我換個方式回答你。更具體地說，我們面臨的挑戰——我認為我們一直對華爾街非常坦誠——在於我們實話實說，我們只說我們知道的事情。如果有什麼不對的地方，我們會直接指出來。我並不是說其他競爭對手不會這樣做。當然，他們也會。問題在於，我們的業務具有相當高的穩定性和可預測性，這不僅是因為業務本身如此，更是因為我們一直以來都是這樣經營的。

So the specific answer to your question is, we can see the first half of the year. We feel pretty good about where the first half of the year is. Here's where it gets cloudier. It's the second half of the year where it's a little bit cloudier. And there's macro factors that will impact that to Marty's point, we had to take into effect the fact that we're not going to have the same kind of second half of the year. The macro isn't lining up exactly the way it was this year. So we looked at the first half. We feel pretty good about that the second half as we go through the year, we'll update it. I think we've got a pretty good view of what it looks like based on everything we know now. But I don't need to remind you that even the Fed is struggling to understand what the macro indicators they're looking at.

所以，針對您的問題，具體答案是：我們可以展望今年上半年。我們對上半年的情況感覺相當樂觀。但下半年的情況就比較複雜了。正如馬蒂所說，宏觀經濟因素會影響下半年的走勢，我們必須考慮到下半年的情況與上半年有所不同。宏觀經濟情勢與今年並不完全一致。因此，我們主要關注上半年，對上半年的情況感覺良好。至於下半年，我們會隨著時間推移不斷更新預測。我認為，根據我們目前掌握的信息，我們對下半年的情況已經有了比較清晰的認識。但我無需提醒您，即使是聯準會也難以完全理解他們所關注的宏觀經濟指標。

Yes. Understood. And then, hey, with regards to bookings, can you break down the bookings that you ended up seeing with regards to the fourth quarter and how the pipeline is looking? And specifically, how would you characterize micro versus SPS versus mid-market? And then to what extent are you seeing growth in terms of new logos versus upsells?

是的，明白了。那麼，關於預訂情況，您能否詳細介紹一下第四季度的預訂情況以及銷售管道的現狀？具體來說，您如何描述微型企業、SPS（銷售支援計畫）和中型市場？此外，您認為新客戶成長和追加銷售的成長幅度分別是多少？

Yes. I think across the board, pretty strong mid-market in particular, that we've called out a couple of times, has really been strong. I think we've done very well. In last fiscal year and starting off this first quarter as well as continued, I think the execution on the sales side, the product and everything is really driven very strong results in the mid market. And we feel we're doing very well against the competition that I think might be struggling a little bit with the things that we're putting out.

是的。我認為整體而言，尤其是中端市場表現非常強勁，我們之前也多次提到。我認為我們做得非常好。在上個財年以及本季初，銷售、產品等各方面的執行力都大大推動了我們在中端市場的優異業績。我們感覺我們比競爭對手做得更好，我認為他們可能在我們推出的產品面前有些吃力。

On the small market, it continues to be okay. I think they're the ones that are probably struggling a little bit more. And then on the micro continues to be very strong. sure, in particular, continue to have very solid growth, and we had growth on the Flex side. So really across the board, I think, in good shape and heading into the quarter, frankly, in good shape. Sales so fully staffed, a little bit of growth from the rep side. But across the board, I mean, sales had their best year ever. And that was pretty much across the board, whether you're talking about the payroll side, retirement, HR, ASO, PEO, really most every area so.

小型市場的情況依然不錯。我認為他們可能稍微遇到了一些困難。而微型市場則持續保持強勁成長，尤其是持續穩健的成長，我們在彈性就業方面也實現了成長。所以總的來說，我認為整體狀況良好，坦白說，進入本季後，情況依然樂觀。銷售人員配備齊全，銷售代表方面也略有成長。但總的來說，銷售業績創下了歷史新高。而且幾乎所有方面都取得了成功，無論是薪資、退休金、人力資源、應用商店優化 (ASO)、專業雇主組織 (PEO)，還是其他幾乎所有領域。

Great. And what percentage of the bookings are upsells versus new logos?

太好了。那麼，在這些預訂中，追加銷售和新客戶分別佔多少比例？

I would say, particularly on the payroll side, it's still about the same. I'd say roughly half is new business. And we really haven't -- new businesses have slowed somewhat, but we've still had a very good track record on winning new business. It's still about 50% of the sales coming in on the payroll side.

我覺得，尤其是在薪資方面，情況基本上保持不變。大約一半是新業務。雖然新業務成長速度有所放緩，但我們在拓展新業務方面仍然保持著非常良好的記錄。薪資業務的銷售額仍佔總銷售額的50%左右。

Our last question will come from Scott Wurtzel with Wolfe Research.

最後一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Wurtzel。

Just wanted to ask on margins. We thought the guide for the full year was pretty encouraging, but I just wanted to look at the first half. It looks like you're guiding for adjusted operating margins to be down a little bit relative to the first half last year. So just wondering what the puts and takes around that, is it mostly due to sort of the wage inflation and increased head count that you've sort of taken or is there any other impacts there?

我只是想問一下利潤率方面的問題。我們認為全年的業績指引相當樂觀，但我只想看看上半年的情況。看起來你們預計調整後的營業利潤率會比去年同期略有下降。所以我想了解背後的原因，主要是因為你們已經考慮到了薪資上漲和員工人數增加，還是還有其他因素？

Yes. What you're seeing when you dig underneath that is that in the first half of the year, our margins were stronger in part because our employment levels were lower. So I kept saying last year that we were adequately staffed and not fully staffed. And we are fully staffed in the first half of the year in addition to the wage actions that we took. So that has an impact of driving margin in the first half down and then you get the benefit in the back half.

是的。深入分析就會發現，今年上半年我們的利潤率較高，部分原因是當時的員工人數較少。所以我去年一直強調，我們的人員配備充足，但並非滿員。而今年上半年，除了我們採取的加薪措施外，我們的人員配備也達到了滿員狀態。因此，這導致上半年的利潤率下降，但下半年利潤率則有所回升。

Got it. Got it. And then just -- sorry, if I may have missed this, I don't know if it was discussed. But is there any way you can maybe unpack on the client fund interest income guidance, just what's the puts and takes between sort of like balance growth and what you're expecting on yields?

明白了，明白了。然後——抱歉，如果我錯過了什麼，我不知道之前有沒有討論過。您能否詳細解釋客戶基金的利息收入指引，例如資產平衡成長和您預期收益率之間的利弊？

Yes. We're expecting modest balance growth. We've had pretty strong balance growth this year. So that really -- the growth is really being driven by our anticipation of what the Fed is going to do between now and end of year. So it's really more interest rate driven. But we are expecting client balance growth too based on wage inflation.

是的。我們預計餘額成長將較為溫和。今年以來，我們的餘額成長相當強勁。因此，目前的成長主要受我們對聯準會年底前政策走向的預期所驅動，也就是利率因素的影響更大。但我們也預計，薪資通膨將帶動客戶餘額成長。

Thank you. This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's call. I would like to turn it back over to our speakers.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我想把時間交還給各位發言人。

All right. Thank you. At this point, we will close the call. If you're interested in replaying the webcast of this conference call, it's archived for approximately 90 days. And thank you for taking the time to participate in our very strong fourth quarter earnings release conference call and your interest in Paychex. I hope you all enjoy a safe and happy summer. Talk to you soon. Thank you.

好的，謝謝。本次電話會議到此結束。如果您有興趣重播本次電話會議的網路直播，它已存檔約90天。感謝您抽空參加我們第四季業績發布電話會議，也感謝您對Paychex的關注。祝大家有個安全快樂的夏天。下次再見。謝謝。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call, and we appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

謝謝各位。今天的電話會議到此結束，感謝各位的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。