沛齊 (PAYX) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Paychex Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's call will be recorded, and I will be standing by if you should need any assistance. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Mr. John Gibson. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎來到今天的 Paychex 第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話將被錄音，如果您需要任何幫助，我會隨時待命。現在我很高興將會議轉交給約翰·吉布森先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Todd. Thank you, everyone, for joining us for our discussion of the Paychex Third Quarter Fiscal Year '23 earnings release. Joining me today is Efrain Rivera, our Chief Financial Officer. This morning, before the market opened, we released our financial results for the third quarter ending February 28. You can access our earnings release on our Investor Relations website. Our Form 10-Q will be filed with the SEC within the next day.

謝謝你，托德。感謝大家加入我們討論 Paychex 第三季度財年 '23 收益發布。今天加入我的是我們的首席財務官 Efrain Rivera。今天上午，在開市前，我們發布了截至 2 月 28 日的第三季度財務業績。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上查看我們的收益發布。我們的 10-Q 表格將在第二天提交給美國證券交易委員會。

This teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on our website for approximately 90 days. I'm going to start the call today with an update on the business highlights and then Efrain will review our financial results and outlook for fiscal year '23. We'll then open it up for any of your questions.

此電話會議將通過互聯網播出，並將在我們的網站上存檔並提供大約 90 天。我將在今天開始電話會議，介紹業務亮點的最新情況，然後 Efrain 將審查我們 23 財年的財務業績和展望。然後我們將打開它來回答您的任何問題。

As you saw in our press release, we delivered solid financial results for the third quarter with total revenue of 8% and adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 12%. Thanks to the outstanding efforts of our employees, we completed a successful selling and calendar year-end season with strong sales volumes and revenue retention for the quarter.

正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們在第三季度取得了穩健的財務業績，總收入為 8%，調整後的稀釋後每股收益增長了 12%。由於我們員工的傑出努力，我們完成了一個成功的銷售和日曆年終季，本季度銷量和收入保持強勁。

We continue to see a stable macro environment and demand for our solutions. Our unique value proposition is clearly resonating in the market. Small and midsized businesses continue to show remarkable resilience as seen in our [job] index in the last 2 months as they contain was a constantly changing labor market, inflation, increasing regulations and rising interest rates.

我們繼續看到穩定的宏觀環境和對我們解決方案的需求。我們獨特的價值主張顯然在市場上引起了共鳴。正如我們過去 2 個月的 [工作] 指數所見，中小企業繼續表現出非凡的彈性，因為它們包含不斷變化的勞動力市場、通貨膨脹、日益嚴格的監管和不斷上升的利率。

Before we get into the third quarter results, I want to take a minute to address the recent volatility in the U.S. banking market as a result of 2 highly publicized bank closings. We have no cash, restricted cash and investments deposited within Silicon Valley Bank or Signature Bank, and we've met all client fund obligations related to employee payment services and remittances to applicable tax or regulatory agencies.

在我們進入第三季度業績之前，我想花一點時間來談談近期美國銀行業市場因 2 家廣為人知的銀行倒閉而引起的波動。我們沒有在矽谷銀行或 Signature Bank 中存入現金、受限制的現金和投資，並且我們已經履行了與員工支付服務和向適用的稅務或監管機構匯款相關的所有客戶資金義務。

We continue to monitor this situation and believe that our existing client funds held cash, cash equivalents and investment balances are more than sufficient to meet all client fund obligations. We remain ready as we were when the crisis was unfolding to help businesses and their employees whose payroll processing or direct deposits may have been impacted by these bank closures.

我們將繼續監控這一情況，並相信我們現有的客戶資金持有現金、現金等價物和投資餘額足以滿足所有客戶資金義務。我們仍像危機爆發時一樣做好準備，以幫助企業及其員工的工資處理或直接存款可能受到這些銀行關閉的影響。

Paychex has a long-standing track record for being a stable place for customers, employees and investors during all types of macroeconomic situations and crisis, and we demonstrated that once again. The selling season was positive in terms of both revenue and volumes in a very highly competitive environment. In particular, demand has remained strong for our HR outsourcing solutions though as we've reported in prior quarters, we continue to see a trend of client shifting preferences for our ASO model over the PEO model. In the third quarter, we saw revenue retention remaining near record levels and normalization of uncontrollable losses at the very low end of the market.

Paychex 在各種宏觀經濟形勢和危機期間為客戶、員工和投資者提供穩定場所方面有著長期的記錄，我們再次證明了這一點。在競爭非常激烈的環境中，銷售旺季在收入和銷量方面都表現良好。特別是，儘管正如我們在前幾個季度報告的那樣，我們的人力資源外包解決方案的需求仍然強勁，但我們繼續看到客戶對我們的 ASO 模型的偏好轉向 PEO 模型的趨勢。在第三季度，我們看到收入保留率保持在接近創紀錄水平的水平，並且在極低端市場上無法控制的損失正常化。

The focus and investment we continue to put in our high-value clients is making the difference in the customer experience. In addition, the advisory assistance we provide our clients is critical in these challenging times. Our retention for our HR outsourcing businesses, both ASO and PEO stand at an all-time record high year-to-date. PEO and Insurance Solutions continues to show lower health insurance attachment and enrollment inside those clients that are attaching. This is specifically impacting our PEO in the Florida market and the softer rates for workers' compensation insurance continue to impact the property and casualty part of our insurance agency.

我們繼續對高價值客戶的關注和投資正在改變客戶體驗。此外，在這個充滿挑戰的時代，我們為客戶提供的諮詢幫助至關重要。我們對人力資源外包業務的保留率，包括 ASO 和 PEO，都創下了年初至今的歷史新高。 PEO 和 Insurance Solutions 繼續顯示較低的健康保險依戀率和在那些依戀的客戶中的註冊率。這特別影響了我們在佛羅里達市場的 PEO，而較低的工傷賠償保險費率繼續影響我們保險機構的財產和意外傷害部分。

We expect these trends to continue early into the next fiscal year and normalize as the year progresses. Paychex is uniquely positioned with a continuum of solutions designed to help businesses in any macro environment. We help them recruit and train employees gain access to capital and provide valuable benefit packages such as insurance and retirement. Through our innovative technology, compliance and HR expertise, we are here to help businesses drive efficiency within their HR processes, which therefore frees up valuable time for them to focus on growing the business.

我們預計這些趨勢將持續到下一個財政年度的早期，並隨著年度的進展而正常化。 Paychex 具有獨特的定位，擁有一系列旨在幫助任何宏觀環境中的企業的解決方案。我們幫助他們招聘和培訓員工獲得資本，並提供有價值的福利方案，如保險和退休金。通過我們的創新技術、合規性和人力資源專業知識，我們可以幫助企業提高人力資源流程的效率，從而騰出寶貴的時間讓他們專注於發展業務。

Competing for and retaining employees remains a challenge for today's workforce. And I want to commend Congress and the President for signing the recent SECURE Act 2.0, which will introduce a range of new opportunities for businesses looking to introduce a retirement benefit and make their employee value proposition more competitive.

競爭和留住員工仍然是當今勞動力面臨的挑戰。我要讚揚國會和總統簽署了最近的 SECURE Act 2.0，這將為希望引入退休福利並使其員工價值主張更具競爭力的企業帶來一系列新機會。

We have begun to launch campaigns to educate the market on the SECURE Act 2 and continue to position Paychex as the industry leader in retirement plans that we are. We are working on strategies to leverage our strength in this market and capitalize on this opportunity in the years ahead.

我們已經開始發起活動，就 SECURE Act 2 對市場進行教育，並繼續將 Paychex 定位為我們退休計劃的行業領導者。我們正在製定戰略，以利用我們在這個市場的實力，並在未來幾年利用這個機會。

As higher interest rates and disruptions in the banking system have both impacted the cost and access of capital for many small and midsized businesses, we have fully embraced this challenge to help them out by proactively assisting our clients and prospects with obtaining financial assistance available to them through nontraditional financial partnerships and through government programs such as PPP and the ERTC program. We continue to see strong demand for our full-service ERTC solution.

由於更高的利率和銀行系統的中斷都影響了許多中小型企業的成本和資金獲取渠道，我們完全接受了這一挑戰，通過積極協助我們的客戶和潛在客戶獲得可用的財務援助來幫助他們度過難關通過非傳統金融合作夥伴關係和政府計劃，例如 PPP 和 ERTC 計劃。我們繼續看到對我們的全方位服務 ERTC 解決方案的強勁需求。

Many of the businesses we've helped are leveraging their new financial flexibility to reinvest in new solutions, such as a retirement plan, or one of our integrated HCM technologies. Recently, our ERTC service was recognized with a Stevie Award for helping businesses obtain critical financial support.

我們幫助過的許多企業正在利用其新的財務靈活性對新的解決方案進行再投資，例如退休計劃或我們的一項集成 HCM 技術。最近，我們的 ERTC 服務因幫助企業獲得重要的財務支持而獲得史蒂夫獎。

In uncertain times, people look for stable, trusted advisers to help them succeed. I am proud that we have recently been recognized as one of the most admired, one of the most ethical and one of the most innovative companies by several prominent and respected brands. We remain one of Fortune's most Admired Companies in 2023 and for the 15th time, we were named among one of the most ethical companies in the world by Ethisphere. This is a select group of companies that show exceptional commitment to ethical operations, compliance performance and governance and risk practices, including strong commitments to ESG and diversity, equity and inclusion.

在不確定的時期，人們會尋找穩定、值得信賴的顧問來幫助他們取得成功。我感到自豪的是，我們最近被幾個知名和受人尊敬的品牌公認為最受尊敬的公司之一、最有道德的公司之一和最具創新性的公司之一。我們在 2023 年仍然是《財富》雜誌最受讚賞的公司之一，並且我們第 15 次被 Ethisphere 評為全球最道德的公司之一。這是一組精選的公司，它們對道德運營、合規績效以及治理和風險實踐表現出卓越的承諾，包括對 ESG 和多樣性、公平性和包容性的堅定承諾。

And today, we are announcing that we have been named to Fortune's list of America's most innovative companies for 2023 due to the innovation we've shown in our products, processes and culture. These awards are the result of the dedication of our 16,000-plus employees who daily are supporting our clients and helping them succeed and doing business the right way every day.

今天，我們宣布，由於我們在產品、流程和文化中展現的創新，我們已被《財富》雜誌評為 2023 年美國最具創新力公司名單。這些獎項是我們 16,000 多名員工奉獻的結果，他們每天都在支持我們的客戶，幫助他們取得成功，並每天以正確的方式開展業務。

Very proud of the team, and I'm very proud of Paychex. There's no question that we are a well-managed and stable market leader that people can depend on. We have a long-standing track record of being there for our customers when they need us most, and we continue to be well positioned to help them through the HR challenges they are facing and whatever comes their way in the future.

為團隊感到非常自豪，我為 Paychex 感到非常自豪。毫無疑問，我們是一家管理完善、穩定的市場領導者，值得人們信賴。長期以來，我們一直在客戶最需要我們的時候為他們服務，我們將繼續處於有利地位，幫助他們度過他們面臨的人力資源挑戰以及未來遇到的任何問題。

Now I'll turn it over to Efrain who will take you through our financial results for the third quarter.

現在我將把它交給 Efrain，他將向您介紹我們第三季度的財務業績。

Thanks, John. Good morning to everyone on the call. I'd like to remind you the customary things I remind you that during these conversations, we're going to talk about forward-looking statements. Items like EBITDA, non-GAAP measures, please refer to our press release for more information on these topics. I'll start by providing some of the key points for the quarter and finish up with a review of our fiscal 2023 outlook.

謝謝，約翰。大家早上好。我想提醒你我提醒你的習慣性事情，在這些對話中，我們將討論前瞻性陳述。 EBITDA、非 GAAP 措施等項目，請參閱我們的新聞稿以獲取有關這些主題的更多信息。我將首先提供本季度的一些要點，最後回顧我們的 2023 財年展望。

Total revenue for the quarter, as you saw, grew 8% to $1.4 billion. Total service revenue increased 7% to $1.3 billion. Obviously, we're benefiting from increase in interest rates. Management Solutions revenue increased 7% to $1 billion, driven by additional product attachment, HR ancillary services. It's largely what we've discussed previously, our ERTC product and price realization, we continue to see strong attachment of our HR solutions, retirement and time and attendance products.

如您所見，本季度的總收入增長了 8%，達到 14 億美元。服務總收入增長 7% 至 13 億美元。顯然，我們正受益於利率上升。管理解決方案收入增長 7% 至 10 億美元，這主要得益於額外的產品附件、人力資源輔助服務。這主要是我們之前討論過的，我們的 ERTC 產品和價格實現，我們繼續看到我們的 HR 解決方案、退休和考勤產品的強烈依戀。

Demand for our ERTC service remains strong and contributed approximately 1% to revenue growth in the quarter. Demand for this product along with our internal execution, have continued to exceed our expectations, while ERTC has been a tailwind, and we expect demand to continue into fiscal year '24. It will eventually become -- will eventually moderate and become a headwind as we progress through next year -- next fiscal year.

對我們的 ERTC 服務的需求依然強勁，並為本季度的收入增長貢獻了約 1%。對該產品的需求以及我們的內部執行繼續超出我們的預期，而 ERTC 一直是順風，我們預計需求將持續到 24 財年。隨著我們明年的進展，它最終將成為 - 最終會緩和並成為逆風 - 下一個財政年度。

Beyond Insurance Solutions revenue increased 6% to $321 million, driven by higher revenue per client and growth in average worksite employees. The rate of growth was impacted by factors previously discussed, including lower medical plan sales and participant volumes, along with the mix shift to ASO as John called out. We expect these trends to normalize as we progress through fiscal 2020, meaning a little bit more of a balance between PEO and ASO.

Beyond Insurance Solutions 的收入增長了 6%，達到 3.21 億美元，這主要得益於每位客戶收入的增加和平均工作場所員工人數的增長。增長率受到之前討論的因素的影響，包括較低的醫療計劃銷售額和參與者數量，以及約翰所說的向 ASO 的組合轉變。我們預計這些趨勢會隨著我們在 2020 財年的進展而正常化，這意味著 PEO 和 ASO 之間會更加平衡。

Interest on funds held for clients increased significantly to $35 million in the quarter, primarily due, as you know, to higher average interest rates. Total expenses were up 8% to $769 million. Expense growth was largely attributable to higher headcount, wage rates in general course to support growth in our business. Op income increased 9% to $612 million, with an operating margin of 44.3%, a slight expansion over the prior year period.

本季度為客戶持有的資金利息大幅增加至 3500 萬美元，如您所知，這主要是由於較高的平均利率。總支出增長 8% 至 7.69 億美元。費用增長主要歸因於更高的員工人數和一般過程中的工資率，以支持我們業務的增長。營業收入增長 9% 至 6.12 億美元，營業利潤率為 44.3%，較上年同期略有增長。

Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 24.3% compared to 22.3% in the prior year period. The prior year period included a higher volume of stock-based comp -- and stock-based comp payments and the recognition of a tax credit related to our development of client-facing software that generated the difference in rates.

我們本季度的有效稅率為 24.3%，而去年同期為 22.3%。上一年期間包括更多的基於股票的補償和基於股票的補償支付以及與我們開發麵向客戶的軟件相關的稅收抵免的確認，這些軟件產生了費率差異。

Net income increased 9% to $467 million and diluted earnings per share increased 8% to $1.29 per share. Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 12% for the quarter to $1.29 per share. Let me quickly summarize the results for the first 9 months of the fiscal year. Performance has been strong. Total service revenue increased 8% to $3.7 billion, and total revenue was up 9% to $3.8 billion. Management Solutions up 9% to $2.8 billion. PEO and Insurance Solutions up 6% to $877 million.

淨收入增長 9% 至 4.67 億美元，稀釋後每股收益增長 8% 至每股 1.29 美元。本季度調整後的攤薄每股收益增長 12% 至每股 1.29 美元。讓我快速總結一下本財政年度前 9 個月的結果。表現一直很強勁。服務總收入增長 8% 至 37 億美元，總收入增長 9% 至 38 億美元。管理解決方案增長 9% 至 28 億美元。 PEO 和保險解決方案增長 6% 至 8.77 億美元。

Op income increased 9% with a margin of 41.8%. Adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share both increased 12% to $1.2 billion and $3.31 per share. Our financial position remained strong as you can see, with cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments of more than $1.6 billion. Total borrowings of approximately $808 million as of February 28, 2023. Cash flow from operations, again, solid for the first 9 months was at $1.3 billion and with an increase from priority driven by higher net income and changes in working capital.

營業收入增長 9%，利潤率為 41.8%。調整後的淨收入和調整後的稀釋後每股收益分別增長 12% 至 12 億美元和每股 3.31 美元。如您所見，我們的財務狀況依然強勁，現金、受限現金和公司總投資超過 16 億美元。截至 2023 年 2 月 28 日，借款總額約為 8.08 億美元。前 9 個月的運營現金流再次穩定為 13 億美元，並且在淨收入增加和營運資本變化的推動下，優先級有所增加。

We've had our quarterly dividends at $0.79 per share for a total of $854 million during the 9 months of fiscal 2023 year, 12-month rolling return on equity was the stellar superb for 47%.

在 2023 財年的 9 個月裡，我們的季度股息為每股 0.79 美元，總計 8.54 億美元，12 個月的滾動股本回報率達到了 47% 的驚人水平。

Now let me turn to our guidance. For the current fiscal year ending May 31, 2023. Our current outlook incorporates our results for the first 9 months in our view of the evolving macroeconomic environment. We have raised guidance on certain measures based on performance this past quarter, updated guidance is as follows: Management Solutions revenue now expected to grow slightly above 8%. We previously guided to a range of 7% to 8%. PEO and Insurance Solutions outlook is unchanged at growth in the range of 5% to 7%, although we anticipate it to be towards the lower end of the range. We expect Q4 PEO and Insurance Solutions growth to be below 5% due to the factors that we've talked about through much of the year.

現在讓我談談我們的指導。截至 2023 年 5 月 31 日的當前財政年度。我們當前的展望結合了我們對不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境的前 9 個月的結果。我們根據上個季度的業績提高了某些指標的指引，更新後的指引如下： 管理解決方案收入現在預計將略高於 8%。我們之前指導的範圍是 7% 到 8%。 PEO 和保險解決方案的前景保持在 5% 至 7% 的增長范圍內不變，儘管我們預計它會接近該範圍的低端。由於我們今年大部分時間都在討論的因素，我們預計第四季度 PEO 和保險解決方案的增長率將低於 5%。

Interest on funds held for clients is expected to be in the range of $100 million to $105 million. Total revenue is expected to grow approximately 8%. Other income and expense net is now expected to be income of $10 million to $15 million, obviously due to higher interest rates. Remember, we met interest income there with our expense on the debt. Adjusted diluted earnings per share is now expected to grow in the range of 13% to 14%. We previously guided to growth of 12% to 14%. So we tightened the range, obviously, 1 quarter left.

為客戶持有的資金利息預計在 1 億至 1.05 億美元之間。預計總收入將增長約 8%。其他收入和支出淨額現在預計為 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的收入，這顯然是由於更高的利率。請記住，我們在那里通過債務支出獲得了利息收入。調整後的攤薄每股收益現在預計將增長 13% 至 14%。我們之前指導增長 12% 至 14%。所以我們收緊了範圍，很明顯，還剩 1 個季度。

Guidance for margins and effective tax rates are unchanged, but we do anticipate being on the higher end of the range for operating margin and the lower end of the range for effective tax rate. We currently are in the middle of our annual budget process and are working on expectations for next fiscal year. As you know, this is challenging for a number of different reasons, not the least of which are expected outcomes in terms of interest rates and also macroeconomic environment. We'll provide final guidance for fiscal 2024 during fiscal 2023's fourth quarter earnings call in June.

利潤率和有效稅率的指導沒有變化，但我們確實預計將處於營業利潤率範圍的高端和有效稅率範圍的低端。我們目前正處於年度預算流程的中間，並正在努力製定下一個財政年度的預期。如您所知，由於許多不同的原因，這具有挑戰性，其中最重要的是利率和宏觀經濟環境方面的預期結果。我們將在 6 月份召開的 2023 財年第四季度財報電話會議上提供 2024 財年的最終指引。

However, let me share some of our preliminary thought process around fiscal 2024. On a preliminary basis, we believe that the exit rate in the fourth quarter is a decent approximation for total revenue growth for 2024. This should result somewhere in the range of 6% to 7%. And again, we got more to do there, but just giving you what our thought process is at the moment. And it's heavily dependent on what we think will happen with interest rates during the year. And at this point, our assumptions are conservative.

但是，讓我分享一下我們在 2024 財年的一些初步思考過程。初步來看，我們認為第四季度的退出率是 2024 年總收入增長的一個不錯的近似值。這應該在 6 的範圍內% 至 7%。再一次，我們在那裡還有更多工作要做，但只是給你我們目前的思維過程。這在很大程度上取決於我們認為年內利率會發生什麼。在這一點上，我們的假設是保守的。

Management Solutions is expected to be lower as a result of moderating ERTC revenues. We called that out last year didn't happen. It actually went the other way. We do think it's going to happen next year. And then PEO and Insurance revenue growth is expected to trend higher as we progress through the year with moderation in some of the headwinds we have experienced this year primarily around insurance attachment and also, as we called out mix shift to ASO. We remain committed to improving margins and we anticipate that operating margin will expand at this stage in the range of 25 to 50 basis points for fiscal 2024.

由於 ERTC 收入減少，Management Solutions 預計會降低。去年我們大聲疾呼並沒有發生。它實際上是相反的。我們確實認為它會在明年發生。然後 PEO 和保險收入增長預計會隨著我們今年的進展而走高，我們今年經歷的一些逆風主要圍繞保險附件以及我們稱之為向 ASO 的混合轉變。我們仍然致力於提高利潤率，我們預計現階段營業利潤率將在 2024 財年擴大 25 至 50 個基點。

Of course, all of this is subject to our current assumptions, which can change, especially if there are significant changes to the macro environment, which at this stage, we are not seeing. I'll refer you to our investor slides on our website for more information. And now let me turn the call back over to John.

當然，所有這些都取決於我們當前的假設，這些假設可能會發生變化，尤其是如果宏觀環境發生重大變化，而在現階段我們還沒有看到。我將向您介紹我們網站上的投資者幻燈片以獲取更多信息。現在讓我把電話轉回給約翰。

Thank you, Efrain. With stats now being complete, Todd will open up the call for any questions people have.

謝謝你，埃夫拉因。現在統計數據已經完成，托德將打開電話詢問人們的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh。

Congratulations. Just really, really strong results here. I don't know, John or Efrain, maybe -- and I know it's preliminary, Efrain, but the 2024 looks pretty similar to '23, and there's a lot of crosscurrents from a macro perspective. And you folks tend to be pretty conservative. Maybe help us understand some of the puts and takes? Is it maybe there's a little bit more pricing and just any base underlying assumptions around unemployment because, again, just really, really outcome. I'm just trying to understand maybe that a little bit more.

恭喜。這裡的結果真的非常非常好。我不知道，John 或 Efrain，也許——我知道這是初步的，Efrain，但 2024 年看起來與 23 年非常相似，而且從宏觀角度來看有很多分歧。你們這些人往往很保守。也許可以幫助我們理解一些 puts and takes？是否可能有更多的定價和關於失業率的任何基本基本假設，因為，再次，只是真的，真的結果。我只是想多了解一點。

Yes. Let me -- I'll let John talk a little bit more to kind of what our thinking is from a macro perspective. But Kevin, just to kind of address some of the higher level assumptions that go into the plan. I called out the fact that ERTC is not going to be the headwind -- I'm sorry, the tailwind that it was this year. We called that out last year, but definitely going to happen next year or I wouldn't say definitely. I will say we have a very high degree of belief that we won't see it. However, you're going to see that more in the second half of the year than the first half of the year.

是的。讓我 - 我會讓 John 從宏觀角度多談談我們的想法。但是凱文，只是為了解決計劃中的一些更高級別的假設。我指出了 ERTC 不會成為逆風的事實——對不起，今年是順風。我們去年宣布了這一點，但明年肯定會發生，否則我不會說肯定。我會說我們非常相信我們不會看到它。但是，你會在今年下半年看到比上半年更多的東西。

So that's the first thing I'd say. If we look back at where we started this year, we're getting a nice macro uplift from employment as we started the year. That seems to have run its course. It is not going the other way. But at this stage, what we're seeing is that there's been a pretty significant moderation in terms of employee adds and that's happened as we progress through the year. So those 2 things are -- will become headwinds as we go through the year.

所以這是我要說的第一件事。如果我們回顧一下今年的起點，我們會從年初的就業中獲得不錯的宏觀提振。這似乎已經走到盡頭了。它不會走向另一條路。但在這個階段，我們看到的是，在增加員工方面出現了相當大的緩和，而且隨著我們這一年的進展，這種情況已經發生。所以這兩件事是 - 將成為我們度過這一年的逆風。

Interest rates I called out. The first half of the year, I think we've got some sense of where we are. So where we're at, the market does too, what is really hard to understand is what happens in the second half of the year and whether we start going in reverse on interest rates. We're taking steps to position the portfolio to be able to deal with that. That's what happens. But no one knows there. Now that's all the stuff that's headwind. No positives.

我叫的利率。今年上半年，我認為我們對自己的處境有了一些了解。所以我們所處的位置，市場也是如此，真正難以理解的是今年下半年會發生什麼，以及我們是否開始逆轉利率。我們正在採取措施定位投資組合，以便能夠處理這個問題。就是這樣。但沒有人知道那裡。現在這就是所有不利因素。沒有積極因素。

We think HR continues to be strong. We think, as John pointed out, we think retirement continues to be strong, we think that HCM continues to proceed well. We think PEO, which has been a little bit of a tailwind to growth this year, it does do better next year. The Insurance business that we call out PEO, a lot of the moderation on the growth rate in PEO insurance coming from insurance, we think that starts to improve as we go into next year. And then we have the normal level of cost discipline in the business that drives the results that we're anticipating in 2024. So that's a broad overview of, Kevin, numbers we've put together. I'll let John talk to macro and any other parts of the business we need to call out.

我們認為人力資源繼續保持強勁。我們認為，正如約翰指出的那樣，我們認為退休繼續強勁，我們認為 HCM 繼續順利進行。我們認為 PEO 今年對增長起到了一定的推動作用，但明年確實會表現更好。我們稱之為 PEO 的保險業務，很多來自保險的 PEO 保險增長率放緩，我們認為隨著我們進入明年，這種情況會開始改善。然後我們在業務中有正常水平的成本紀律，這會推動我們在 2024 年取得預期的結果。所以這是對我們匯總的數字的廣泛概述。我會讓約翰與宏觀和我們需要召集的任何其他業務部門交談。

Yes. Yes. Kevin, keep in mind that we've certainly seen a reference and really expected to see some moderation. I mean, we don't expect another 4.5 basis points increase in interest rates that we don't expect the type of hiring that we saw from the -- it's hard to believe that the great resignation was just last year, a year away. So certainly, we've had the benefit of staffing up. But we're not seeing any contraction moderation.

是的。是的。凱文，請記住，我們確實看到了一個參考，並且真的希望看到一些節制。我的意思是，我們預計利率不會再增加 4.5 個基點，我們預計不會出現我們從中看到的招聘類型——很難相信偉大的辭職就在去年，一年之後。所以當然，我們已經受益於人員配備。但我們沒有看到任何收縮放緩。

And in fact, if you look at our job index, which has been a great indicator of kind of small business health and what we've seen in both January and February that we've reported, it's actually an increase in the index. And we really have not seen that through all of this fiscal year. So these are the really first 2 months where we've seen an increase in the index and also saw some moderation in wage inflation as well.

事實上，如果你看看我們的就業指數，它一直是衡量小企業健康狀況的一個很好的指標，以及我們在 1 月和 2 月所報告的情況，它實際上是指數的增長。我們真的沒有在整個財政年度看到這一點。因此，這是真正的前兩個月，我們看到該指數有所上升，工資通脹也有所放緩。

So we're certainly not seeing it. We haven't reported March yet, but I can tell you we continue not to seeing things there. Demand for our products, the HR products, the online products that we're offering, HCM products of the 401(k), Efrain, is really, really strong. I mean, we had a strong sales quarter in the second quarter and the third quarter was actually better than that even on a relative basis quarter-to-quarter from prior periods.

所以我們肯定沒有看到它。我們還沒有報告 3 月，但我可以告訴你，我們仍然沒有看到那裡的情況。對我們的產品、人力資源產品、我們提供的在線產品、401(k) 的 HCM 產品、Efrain 的需求真的非常強勁。我的意思是，我們在第二季度有一個強勁的銷售季度，而第三季度實際上比前幾個季度的相對基礎要好。

So we're seeing good demand in what I would say, moderation stabilization. We're certainly closely watching all of the indicators, but we're not seeing things. We've got a very -- the other thing I would point out on a macro basis, there's a lot of noise in the system. And I think it's important to say we have a very diverse client base. And I think it's fair to say, Paychex, we're one of the main street small and midsized business company. We're not that Silicon Valley. We're not focused on 1 particular vertical or we're not heavily weighted here or there.

因此，我們看到了我所說的適度穩定方面的良好需求。我們當然在密切關注所有指標，但我們沒有看到任何東西。我們有一個非常 - 我要在宏觀基礎上指出的另一件事，系統中有很多噪音。而且我認為重要的是要說我們擁有非常多樣化的客戶群。我認為可以公平地說，Paychex，我們是主要的中小型商業公司之一。我們不是那個矽谷。我們不專注於一個特定的垂直領域，或者我們在這里或那裡的權重不高。

And so we tend to represent what's going on in Main Street. And I don't think Main Street small business owners have been reckless in hiring or reckless in spending or able to spend more than they make. And so again, they struggle through this and we've been helping them to get through it. So our retention has been strong as well and particularly where accounts in our HR advisory products, both PEO and ASO, again, at record levels.

因此，我們傾向於代表大街上正在發生的事情。而且我認為大街上的小企業主並沒有魯莽地招聘或魯莽地支出，或者能夠支出超過他們的收入。因此，他們再次為此苦苦掙扎，而我們一直在幫助他們度過難關。因此，我們的保留率也很高，特別是在我們的人力資源諮詢產品（PEO 和 ASO）中的賬戶再次達到創紀錄水平。

So we have a good degree of confidence that our value proposition is resonating with our current clients. We still think there's a ton of opportunity inside our client base to provide them further assistance. And while we've seen until towards ASO versus PEO this year, I always look at it this way. Those ASO clients are Paychex clients and we'll be talking to them again next year about whether or not it's the right time and whether or not you've got the right benefits offering that now meets their needs, and we're certainly doing a lot of work there to try to make sure we've got the right continuum of insurance products to meet the market conditions for small businesses today.

因此，我們非常有信心我們的價值主張會引起當前客戶的共鳴。我們仍然認為我們的客戶群中有很多機會可以為他們提供進一步的幫助。儘管我們在今年看到了 ASO 與 PEO 的對比，但我始終以這種方式看待它。那些 ASO 客戶是 Paychex 客戶，明年我們將再次與他們討論現在是否是正確的時間，以及您現在是否提供了滿足他們需求的正確福利，我們肯定會做那裡做了大量工作，以確保我們擁有正確的保險產品連續體，以滿足當今小型企業的市場條件。

So I feel like, look, this labor challenge that we have is not going to go away. And I don't think the complexities of hiring people is going to go away. And I think that bodes well for how we've positioned ourselves, both from an HCM perspective, our technology is driving efficiencies and it's helping people manage remote workers. It's helping them attract workers and quite frankly, our HR advisory services are paying big dividends. So I hope that gives you some color on what we're seeing.

所以我覺得，看，我們面臨的勞動力挑戰不會消失。而且我認為招聘人員的複雜性不會消失。我認為這預示著我們如何定位自己，從 HCM 的角度來看，我們的技術正在提高效率，並幫助人們管理遠程工作者。它幫助他們吸引員工，坦率地說，我們的人力資源諮詢服務帶來了豐厚的回報。所以我希望這能讓你對我們所看到的有所了解。

Our next question comes from David Togut with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Just to dig into fiscal '24 guidance a bit more. Could you walk through some of the underlying drivers of Management Solutions revenue growth for next year in a little greater depth. And in particular, if you could let's say, start with the critical year-end selling season, which you've just gone through, you've indicated it was strong. If you could kind of walk through kind of what parts of the bookings were particularly strong within your client base, small end like SurePayroll versus kind of more of the core payroll processing business. And then, in addition to that, if you could comment on your expectations for client revenue retention next year and also for pricing?

只是為了更深入地研究 24 財年的指導方針。您能否更深入地介紹明年管理解決方案收入增長的一些潛在驅動因素？特別是，如果你可以說，從你剛剛經歷的關鍵年終銷售季節開始，你就表明它很強勁。如果您能了解一下您的客戶群中預訂的哪些部分特別強勁，那麼像 SurePayroll 這樣的小端與更多的核心薪資處理業務相比。然後，除此之外，您能否評論一下您對明年客戶收入保留以及定價的期望？

Okay. Let me break it into 2 pieces, and then do let John comment on the selling season. So David, look, to put the revenue plan together for Management Solutions, I'd say you've got to -- you've got to get several dimensions reasonably right. The first is obviously what we expect from a client growth perspective, and John can talk to what we saw during the selling season. What I mean is unit growth in terms of sales.

好的。讓我把它分成兩部分，然後讓約翰評論銷售季節。所以大衛，看，為了將管理解決方案的收入計劃放在一起，我會說你必須 - 你必須合理地獲得幾個維度。第一個顯然是我們從客戶增長的角度所期望的，約翰可以談談我們在銷售季節看到的情況。我的意思是銷售方面的單位增長。

The second part is what do you expect from a pricing standpoint, too early to talk exactly what we're going to do. But those 2 components, both client growth and also pricing are part of our assumptions going into next year. You want to get the right level of product attachment, continued growth on the ancillary products in the bundled suite including time and attendance, HR administration.

第二部分是你從定價的角度期望什麼，現在談論我們將要做什麼還為時過早。但是這兩個組成部分，客戶增長和定價都是我們對明年的假設的一部分。您希望獲得適當級別的產品附件，捆綁套件中輔助產品的持續增長，包括時間和出勤、人力資源管理。

And then increasingly, within Management Solutions, retirement and HR drive a lot of growth. And we're assuming strong years within both of those products, partly on the return side based on what John said. So you put all those together, and that forms the basis of our thought process around Management Solutions. And then PEO and insurance, we expect to grow faster than we've seen this year in part because of some of the headwinds we feel will abate as we get into next year, although that may still be evident in Q1.

然後越來越多地，在管理解決方案中，退休和人力資源推動了很多增長。我們假設這兩種產品都表現強勁，部分是基於約翰所說的回報方面。所以你把所有這些放在一起，這就構成了我們圍繞管理解決方案思考過程的基礎。然後是 PEO 和保險，我們預計增長速度將超過今年的增長速度，部分原因是我們認為進入明年時的一些不利因素將會減弱，儘管這在第一季度可能仍然很明顯。

You framed the question correctly in the sense that if we come out of the selling season, and we haven't felt like we've had some of our objectives, it becomes a little bit more challenging to put the plan for '24 together, but John called out the fact that we thought we had good performance in the selling season. We obviously are not giving percentages at this point. We think after Q4, we gave you a lot of detail about client base, et cetera, and we'll talk about that. But I'll let John talk to what we were seeing during the selling season.

從某種意義上說，您正確地提出了這個問題，如果我們走出銷售季節，並且我們還沒有感覺到我們已經實現了一些目標，那麼將 24 年的計劃放在一起就會變得更具挑戰性，但約翰指出，我們認為我們在銷售旺季的表現不錯。我們現在顯然沒有給出百分比。我們認為在第四季度之後，我們為您提供了很多關於客戶群的細節，等等，我們將討論這些。但我會讓約翰談談我們在銷售季節看到的情況。

Yes. No, I think, David, the key point was -- is we had both strong revenue production -- new revenue production and good volume production across the core business and then really just continue to see this accelerated level. I mean, we were growing our HR businesses. We're growing a good healthy clip before the pandemic and when the pandemic hit, we started to come out and they accelerated. And we're really seeing strong growth there, strong growth in retirement services, our online services, time and attendance, the other bundles that we're offering of retention insights.

是的。不，我認為，大衛，關鍵點是——我們有強勁的收入生產——新的收入生產和核心業務的良好批量生產，然後真的只是繼續看到這種加速水平。我的意思是，我們正在發展我們的人力資源業務。在大流行之前，我們正在發展一個健康的良好剪輯，當大流行來襲時，我們開始出來，他們加速了。我們確實看到了那裡的強勁增長，退休服務、我們的在線服務、時間和出勤率的強勁增長，以及我們提供的其他捆綁的保留洞察力。

We're just seeing a lot of traction in our products and services than we saw in the third quarter. And I said the third quarter was a step-up from the second quarter, we felt pretty good about the second quarter. So -- and it was a very highly competitive environment. I would say there's a lot of aggressive competitors out there. And I think our products and our sales team did a great job on executing. Also, the other thing I feel good about in that quarter is we sell a lot of our business, over 50% of our new clients come to us from strategic partnerships, and we had a good year-over-year increase there. And again, I think what's going on there, not only as our products and services resonating, but I think people that are advising clients are beginning to put a preference on, hey, if I'm going to advise my clients where to go, maybe they need to be in a nice safe place where I don't have to have worries about whether or not their employees are going to get paid.

我們只是看到我們的產品和服務比第三季度有很大的吸引力。我說第三季度比第二季度有所提升，我們對第二季度感覺很好。所以 - 這是一個競爭非常激烈的環境。我會說那裡有很多咄咄逼人的競爭對手。而且我認為我們的產品和我們的銷售團隊在執行方面做得很好。此外，我在那個季度感覺良好的另一件事是我們出售了很多業務，超過 50% 的新客戶來自戰略合作夥伴關係，並且我們在那裡取得了良好的同比增長。再一次，我認為那裡發生了什麼，不僅因為我們的產品和服務引起共鳴，而且我認為為客戶提供建議的人開始偏愛，嘿，如果我要建議我的客戶去哪裡，也許他們需要在一個安全的地方，在那裡我不必擔心他們的員工是否會得到報酬。

So I think that's also helped us in the third quarter as well.

所以我認為這在第三季度也對我們有所幫助。

Just pivoting to the float, Efrain. How are you positioning the float if the Fed is almost done raising short-term interest rates?

只是轉向浮動，Efrain。如果美聯儲幾乎完成提高短期利率，你如何定位浮動？

So that's an interesting point, David. I wonder whether they're almost done raising short interest rates. I tend to agree with you, but I'm not so certain about it. But the levers you have there is what percentage you have long term versus what percentage you have short term? And where do you lock -- where you lock long-term rates and over a period of time, so you can manage what happens on the downside of the cycle. So we're starting to extend duration now because we're of the conviction that interest rates seem to be getting close to some sort of peak.

所以這是一個有趣的觀點，大衛。我想知道他們是否幾乎完成了短期利率的提高。我傾向於同意你的看法，但我不太確定。但是你擁有的槓桿是長期的百分比與短期的百分比？你在哪裡鎖定——你在哪裡鎖定長期利率和一段時間，這樣你就可以管理週期下行時發生的事情。所以我們現在開始延長期限，因為我們堅信利率似乎正在接近某種峰值。

Having said that, my prognostication skills on this or not anything anyone should take to the bank. But I do think from a portfolio management perspective, it's probably better to start going longer now for us. We were shorter earlier in the year.

話雖如此，我對此的預測能力或任何人都不應帶到銀行的事情。但我確實認為，從投資組合管理的角度來看，現在開始對我們來說可能會更好。我們在今年早些時候變短了。

Our next question comes from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ramsey El-Assal。

Efrain, can I ask you to drill down a little bit in terms of the factors that are giving you confidence that the insurance side of PEO will improve next year. Just curious about the drivers or sort of reasoning behind that expectation.

Efrain，我能否請你深入了解一下讓你相信明年 PEO 的保險方面會有所改善的因素。只是對驅動程序或這種期望背後的某種推理感到好奇。

Yes. So two things, Ramsey, it's interesting. It's been an unusual year in the sense that we've seen softness in insurance inside the PEO, and we've seen softness in insurance, particularly healthcare insurance, in our agency. I'd start with the kind of obvious point that -- at some point, people do need health insurance. And at some point, as clients grow within the PEO, we add more clients, we're going to get more health care attachment.

是的。所以有兩件事，Ramsey，這很有趣。從某種意義上說，這是不尋常的一年，因為我們看到了 PEO 內部保險業務的疲軟，我們也看到了我們機構保險業務的疲軟，尤其是醫療保險。我將從一個明顯的觀點開始——在某些時候，人們確實需要健康保險。在某個時候，隨著 PEO 內客戶的增長，我們會增加更多客戶，我們將獲得更多的醫療保健依戀。

What's happened this year is that in the PEO in particular, you have renewals that occur in the fall and then you have renewals that occur at the beginning of the year. And if in that cycle, you don't get what you expected, you basically have to wait for some period of time before we start all of that process a little over again. So we -- as we went through the year -- in the first half of the year, we got okay, we're going to come out of the year with robust insurance as we get to the end of the year, it was better, but it wasn't what we expected.

今年發生的事情是，特別是在 PEO 中，您在秋季進行了更新，然後在年初進行了更新。如果在那個週期中，你沒有得到你所期望的，你基本上必須等待一段時間，然後我們才能重新開始所有的過程。所以我們 - 當我們經歷了這一年 - 在今年上半年，我們還好，我們將在年底時以強大的保險結束這一年，它更好，但這不是我們所期望的。

On the agency side, it's been moderating as we've gone through the year. And we've gone through cycles like this where it seems attachment is lower and then it picks up. So part of it is almost a new reversion phenomenon that we think will occur. But the second part is we put a number of different initiatives in place that don't bear immediate fruit, but we think we'll bear fruit as we go into next year. One thing that's really interesting final point on that, John, just to highlight something John said, which is this preference for ASO versus PEO is a permanent preference for many clients eventually that want a PEO solution because they want the benefit on those and we're expecting that we're going to see more of that as we head into next year. So while PEO performance, I would just highlight the PEO performance has been lower than what we anticipated during the year. It's still been growing at a decent clip. It's being somewhat attenuated by the insurance business, which has been very, very sluggish through the year.

在機構方面，隨著我們經歷了這一年，它一直在緩和。我們經歷了這樣的循環，似乎依戀程度較低，然後又回升。所以其中一部分幾乎是我們認為會出現的新的回歸現象。但第二部分是我們實施了許多不同的舉措，這些舉措不會立即見效，但我們認為我們將在明年取得成果。最後一點真的很有趣，John，只是為了強調 John 所說的話，即對 ASO 與 PEO 的偏好是許多最終需要 PEO 解決方案的客戶的永久偏好，因為他們希望從中受益，而我們'我們預計在進入明年時我們會看到更多這樣的情況。因此，雖然 PEO 的表現，但我只想強調 PEO 的表現低於我們今年的預期。它仍在以不錯的速度增長。保險業務在一定程度上減弱了這一點，今年以來保險業務一直非常非常低迷。

Yes, Ramsey, I would add to that, I think it's important to understand that particularly on the insurance attachment side in the PEO, remember, that's a lot of pass-through revenue, not a lot of margin. But it's a big dollar number. So a small percentage change in any direction has probably an overweighted impact on the revenue in the PEO, right? And so extra 1% or 2% and then another 1% or 2% participation within the base, I think, is critical.

是的，拉姆齊，我要補充一點，我認為重要的是要了解這一點，特別是在 PEO 的保險附件方面，請記住，這是很多轉手收入，而不是很多保證金。但這是一個很大的數字。因此，任何方向的小百分比變化都可能對 PEO 的收入產生超重影響，對嗎？因此，額外的 1% 或 2%，然後在基礎中再有 1% 或 2% 的參與，我認為是至關重要的。

And to Efrain's point, you have this opportunity to reset your insurance portfolio every open enrollment, and you're hoping that you have the right portfolio of cost and the type of plans that people can afford and they want to gravitate to and what they're going to do and that cycle comes up every fall and into the winter. So certainly, we're taking a lot of data. We're doing a review of every market for the PEO and looking at our health insurance line up, making sure it's competitive. We're taking an affordable for clients. We're talking to our clients. We're already in the process beginning to reset that and talk about that reset.

就 Efrain 的觀點而言，您有機會在每次公開註冊時重新設置您的保險組合，並且您希望您擁有正確的成本組合以及人們可以負擔得起的計劃類型以及他們想要的以及他們'重新去做，這個循環會在每年秋天和冬天出現。所以當然，我們正在獲取大量數據。我們正在審查 PEO 的每個市場，並查看我們的健康保險產品線，確保它具有競爭力。我們正在為客戶提供負擔得起的服務。我們正在與我們的客戶交談。我們已經在開始重置並討論重置的過程中。

So we're confident that we'll have the right lineup and the right opportunity, and then as Efrain said, historically, most of Paychex PEO sales really prior to our acquisition of Oasis was coming from upgrading ASO clients into the PEO business, a lot of inside the base.

因此，我們有信心我們將擁有合適的陣容和合適的機會，然後正如 Efrain 所說，從歷史上看，在我們收購 Oasis 之前，Paychex PEO 的大部分銷售實際上來自將 ASO 客戶升級為 PEO 業務，a基地裡面很多。

Now it's far more outside the base, but we still have that capability inside the base. So we think there's additional opportunity inside our client base to upgrade them to PEO and that not only increases the revenue, but it also increases the lifetime value of the customer to us, it's the right thing to do for the business, and we'll be looking at plans to do that as we go into next year as well.

現在它遠在基地之外，但我們在基地內部仍然有這種能力。因此，我們認為我們的客戶群中還有更多機會將他們升級為 PEO，這不僅會增加收入，還會增加客戶對我們的終身價值，這對企業來說是正確的做法，我們會我們也會在進入明年時考慮這樣做的計劃。

Let me sneak 1 last follow-up, you called out higher revenue per client as a driver in the quarter. And I'm just curious, over time, have you seen the kind of overall growth algorithm of the business shift more such that, that higher rev per client metric is sort of more important. I guess the underlying question is, do you expect sort of ongoing gains there to sort of persist or is it -- was there something a little more lumpy about it that we should be aware of?

讓我偷偷跟進 1 最後一次跟進，你在本季度呼籲每個客戶的收入更高作為驅動因素。而且我很好奇，隨著時間的推移，您是否看到業務的整體增長算法發生了更多變化，即更高的每個客戶轉化率指標更為重要。我想潛在的問題是，你是否期望那裡的持續收益能夠持續下去，或者它是否有一些我們應該意識到的更不穩定的東西？

No. For sure. I mean, if you look at -- if you parse all the data, I'm not sure you get it from all of the public disclosure, you get pretty close. You've seen persistent growth in revenue per client. So I think we've been very skillful at finding new opportunities, both with product attachment, but also the ability to create new products and services within our client base to drive that revenue higher.

不，當然。我的意思是，如果你看 - 如果你解析所有數據，我不確定你是否從所有公開披露中得到它，你會非常接近。您已經看到每個客戶的收入持續增長。因此，我認為我們在尋找新機會方面非常熟練，既有產品附件，也有能力在我們的客戶群中創造新產品和服務以提高收入。

So yes, we can talk about an algorithm that's about units and price, or we can talk about an algorithm that's really around revenue per client and revenue per client has become more important, certainly in the last 5 years.

所以是的，我們可以談論一種關於單位和價格的算法，或者我們可以談論一種真正圍繞每個客戶的收入和每個客戶的收入變得更加重要的算法，當然在過去 5 年裡。

I think it's important, Ramsey, to keep in mind, we're in states where we're driving more value to the customer and both through our technology as well as our advisory services and that value is driving retention. It's driving pricing power, and it's driving an openness to add additional products and services over time.

Ramsey，我認為重要的是要記住，我們正處於通過我們的技術和諮詢服務為客戶創造更多價值的狀態，而這種價值正在推動保留。它推動了定價能力，並且推動了隨著時間的推移添加額外產品和服務的開放性。

So the old traditional model we've always had, which is we've always been able to drive price increases over time to cover our cost increases. We've been able to go into the base and drive attachment. I would lay on top of that because we focus so much on the HR value proposition and driving customers up our kind of value continuum, that the other benefit we're seeing here is revenue retention. And now they're looking at us as their trusted adviser and they're saying, "I want my 401(k) with Paychex, I want my time and attendance with Paychex. I want my other digital offerings from Paychex. I want my insurance from Paychex."

因此，我們一直採用舊的傳統模式，即我們一直能夠隨著時間的推移推動價格上漲，以彌補我們的成本增加。我們已經能夠進入基地並駕駛附件。我最重要的是因為我們非常關注人力資源價值主張並推動客戶提升我們的價值連續體，我們在這裡看到的另一個好處是收入保留。現在他們將我們視為他們值得信賴的顧問，他們說，“我想要 Paychex 的 401(k)，我想要 Paychex 的時間和出勤率。我想要 Paychex 的其他數字產品。我想要我的來自 Paychex 的保險。”

Our next question comes from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自安德魯尼古拉斯和威廉布萊爾。

This is Daniel Maxwell on for Andrew today. Sort of similar to the last question, but specifically on WSE growth. in the PEO and ASO client base. If you can break apart how much of that is coming from existing clients versus new clients and attrition. And any color on why there has been a preference for ASO over PEO and the reasons you expect that balance to normalize? Is that just coming from increased confidence in upselling to PEO? Or is there anything else in there?

今天我是安德魯的丹尼爾·麥克斯韋 (Daniel Maxwell)。有點類似於上一個問題，但具體是關於 WSE 增長的。在 PEO 和 ASO 客戶群中。如果你能區分其中有多少來自現有客戶與新客戶和流失。以及為什麼人們更喜歡 ASO 而不是 PEO 以及您希望這種平衡正常化的原因？這僅僅是因為對向 PEO 追加銷售的信心增強了嗎？或者裡面還有什麼東西？

Yes, Daniel. So we've seen healthy growth in WSEs across ASO and PEO. We don't separately break them out, but both have been growing. So we're seeing positive results on that side of the equation, splitting it out between new adds versus existing base. The reality is that because the existing base is so large, it dwarfs the impact of new adds from a WFE perspective, especially when you consider loss.

是的，丹尼爾。因此，我們已經看到 ASO 和 PEO 中 WSE 的健康增長。我們不單獨分解它們，但它們都在增長。因此，我們在等式的那一邊看到了積極的結果，將其分為新添加與現有基礎。現實情況是，由於現有基數如此之大，從 WFE 的角度來看，它使新增的影響相形見絀，尤其是當你考慮損失時。

And so -- so we've seen good growth on WSE that makes us, as John said, more positive about the general value of our HR advisory services both cross ASO and PEO. I'll let John talk through shifting preferences in a given year between ASO and PEO.

因此，正如約翰所說，我們已經看到 WSE 的良好增長，這使我們對跨 ASO 和 PEO 的人力資源諮詢服務的總體價值更加積極。我將讓 John 談談特定年份 ASO 和 PEO 之間偏好的轉變。

Yes, Daniel. I think that what you're seeing is -- and again, some of this is just speculation on our part, but when we see clients that had our insurance and we go through enrollment and where they had 25 employees that bought the insurance, now they have 22 or you see clients that had your insurance in the PEO and decide that they no longer going to have insurance or offer insurance for your employees.

是的，丹尼爾。我認為你所看到的是——再一次，其中一些只是我們的猜測，但是當我們看到客戶有我們的保險並且我們進行了註冊並且他們有 25 名員工購買了保險時，現在他們有 22 個，或者您看到客戶在 PEO 中購買了您的保險，並決定他們不再為您的員工購買保險或提供保險。

I just think you're in a position where given some of the uncertainty, people being cautious of adding a benefit. Now it's interesting, they know they need to have benefits to attract or retain employees. So 401(k) is doing very, very well. It's a lower cost benefit. It's a lower commitment. And now when we take the SECURE Act 2, technically, if you're a 20 million to 50 million company -- person company, you now can basically get a 401(k) set up and have all of the setup costs and the annual cost covered through tax credits.

我只是認為你所處的位置存在一些不確定性，人們對增加好處持謹慎態度。現在很有趣，他們知道他們需要有福利來吸引或留住員工。所以 401(k) 做得非常非常好。這是一個較低的成本效益。這是一個較低的承諾。現在，當我們採取安全法案 2 時，從技術上講，如果你是一家擁有 2000 萬到 5000 萬員工的公司，你現在基本上可以建立 401(k) 計劃並擁有所有的設置成本和年度通過稅收抵免支付的費用。

So those are things they're adding. But the health insurance, because of the size of the expenditure and the fact of matter is once you start offering it, it's a pretty long-term commitment you're making. I think there's a degree of hesitance to that. And again, as I said, I think there's more we can do in going out and looking for more innovative product sets that gives access, affordable access to health care for our employees and our teams are working on that. As we go through the new enrollment. But again, the issue you'll have there, that's going to be enrollment, we get into the fall of this calendar year and into the second quarter of our fiscal year. Does that help?

所以這些是他們正在添加的東西。但是健康保險，由於支出的規模和事實，一旦你開始提供它，你就會做出相當長期的承諾。我認為對此有一定程度的猶豫。再一次，正如我所說，我認為我們可以做更多的事情，走出去尋找更多創新的產品集，為我們的員工提供負擔得起的醫療保健服務，我們的團隊正在為此努力。當我們進行新的註冊時。但同樣，你會遇到的問題是入學，我們將進入本日曆年的秋季和本財年的第二季度。這有幫助嗎？

Yes, that's helpful. And then just generally on capital allocation, anything on the attractiveness of buybacks going forward or any M&A opportunities that have become more attractive in the last few months in the pipeline? .

是的，這很有幫助。然後一般來說，關於資本配置，關於未來回購的吸引力或在過去幾個月中變得更具吸引力的任何併購機會？ .

Look, with respect to buybacks, I think we've talked about what our philosophy is in general. And at this stage, we're evaluating a range of opportunities from an M&A perspective and if the right opportunity, I'll let John talk to that, what we're looking at. But the right opportunity comes along, we obviously have the dry powder to be able to make something happen.

看，關於回購，我想我們已經討論了我們的總體理念。在這個階段，我們正在從併購的角度評估一系列機會，如果合適的機會，我會讓約翰談談我們正在尋找的東西。但是合適的機會來了，我們顯然有乾火藥可以讓事情發生。

Yes. I think Daniel, I think our position has changed on this. I think the market conditions are changing and have changed and I think we're going to continually be on the lookout for opportunities that accelerate our position from an HR leader and the technology leader and continue to position us as the leading digital HR human capital management provider. So I would say some -- we've seen some valuations starting to come down. I'm sure the recent disruptions in the financial markets may create additional opportunities. And as Efrain said, we stand ready if the right opportunity comes around to pull the trigger. It's not that we haven't wanted to do something but we also are not going to overpay for something. So we're going to be -- you're going to see the same financial discipline you've continued to see from Paychex. We believe that the market conditions are more conducive to us moving forward on the M&A front, but we'll see if that actually transpires.

是的。我想丹尼爾，我認為我們的立場已經改變了。我認為市場條件正在發生變化並且已經發生變化，我認為我們將繼續尋找機會，加速我們從人力資源領導者和技術領導者的地位，並繼續將我們定位為領先的數字人力資源人力資本管理提供商。所以我會說一些 - 我們已經看到一些估值開始下降。我相信最近金融市場的混亂可能會創造更多的機會。正如 Efrain 所說，如果合適的機會到來，我們隨時準備扣動扳機。這並不是說我們不想做某事，而是我們也不會為某事多付錢。所以我們將會——你會看到你繼續從 Paychex 看到的相同的財務紀律。我們相信市場條件更有利於我們在併購方面向前邁進，但我們將拭目以待。

Our next question comes from Samad Samana with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Samad Samana。

Maybe one, just as I think about that comment about the number of new customers coming through strategic partnerships, how should we think about maybe how that impacts kind of customer acquisition costs those tend to be slightly larger, smaller, more profitable, less profitable? How should we think about where you're acquiring the customers from and what the impact of that is to the financials?

也許是一個，正如我對通過戰略合作夥伴關係獲得的新客戶數量的評論一樣，我們應該如何考慮這可能如何影響客戶獲取成本的類型，這些成本往往略大、較小、利潤更高、利潤更低？我們應該如何考慮您從哪裡獲得客戶以及這對財務有何影響？

So I wouldn't think anything about it. I would just really more commenting that's been Paychex for 50 years. Over 50% of our new clients have always come from strategic alliances we have. We're a respected partner with the association, it has been the CPAs. And so they've always been a big source of ours.

所以我不會考慮任何事情。我真的會更多地評論 Paychex 已經 50 年了。我們超過 50% 的新客戶始終來自我們的戰略聯盟。我們是該協會受人尊敬的合作夥伴，它一直是註冊會計師。所以他們一直是我們的重要來源。

It doesn't do anything to our cost of acquisition. I just think they tilted certainly during the selling season, we saw a good uptick in how they were referring Paychex over other options that they have. That was my comment.

它對我們的採購成本沒有任何影響。我只是認為他們在銷售季節肯定會傾斜，我們看到他們如何將 Paychex 比他們擁有的其他選擇更好地推薦。那是我的評論。

Okay. Great. And then as we think about the bookings in the quarter, anything to call out between the different kind of customer sizes so think about it as very downmarket and maybe more micro customers versus your average customer size. Just any trends or pockets of strength or weakness?

好的。偉大的。然後當我們考慮本季度的預訂時，在不同類型的客戶規模之間需要指出的任何事情，因此將其視為非常低端市場，並且可能比平均客戶規模更多的微型客戶。只是任何趨勢或優勢或劣勢？

Well, actually, what I would say is we have good strength, I think, across the board. And actually, what I would tell you is that we actually saw a little more strength up market, not just the small start-up, 1s and 2s and on the digital side, which is during the pandemic, that's where we saw a lot of growth. We know business starts through the roof crazy levels they've subsided that they're still at high levels in comparison to pre-pandemic. So at that time, when all these start-ups were happening, also, we do a lot of managed payrolls in SurePayroll. So as you can imagine, a lot of people were hiring household staff during the pandemic.

好吧，實際上，我想說的是，我認為我們在各方面都有很好的實力。事實上，我要告訴你的是，我們實際上看到了更多的強勁市場，而不僅僅是小型初創企業，1s 和 2s 以及在大流行期間的數字方面，這是我們看到的很多生長。我們知道業務從瘋狂的屋頂開始，他們已經平息，與大流行前相比，他們仍然處於高水平。所以在那個時候，當所有這些初創企業都在發生的時候，我們也在 SurePayroll 中做了很多管理工資單。所以你可以想像，在大流行期間，很多人都在僱用家政人員。

We saw a lot of escalation in the very micro end of that space. I would say that's balanced out. It's gotten back to a more balanced world and what we saw in the third quarter was strength in the more traditional segments for Paychex.

我們在該空間的微觀端看到了很多升級。我會說這是平衡的。它已經回到一個更加平衡的世界，我們在第三季度看到的是 Paychex 在更傳統的細分市場中的實力。

Our next question comes from Bryan Bergin with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Bryan Bergin。

It's actually Jared Levine on for Bryan today. How does the 3Q PEO revenue and worksite employees come in relative to your expectations? And then what is the expectation for 4Q in terms of how worksite employees and at-risk health insurance revenue will compare to 3Q?

今天實際上是 Jared Levine 替 Bryan 上場。相對於您的預期，第三季度 PEO 收入和工作場所員工數如何？那麼，與第三季度相比，第四季度工作場所員工和高風險健康保險收入的預期是什麼？

Yes. Jared, I won't get into that level of granularity at this point. And -- so we will report as we get through the quarter-end and year-end, I'm not ready to dive into specific operational metrics for the PEO at this point. We called out that revenue was going to be lower in Q4. That's a function of the topics that we've been talking about relative to insurance. But yes, I won't go any further than that. We'll have more to say as we get to Q4.

是的。 Jared，我現在不會進入那種粒度級別。而且——所以我們將在季末和年末報告，此時我還沒有準備好深入研究 PEO 的具體運營指標。我們呼籲第四季度的收入將會下降。這是我們一直在談論的與保險相關的主題的功能。但是，是的，我不會再說下去了。當我們進入第四季度時，我們會有更多的話要說。

Okay. And then the 25 to 50 basis points of potential margin expansion for FY 24, can you discuss what the primary drivers of that expansion would be?

好的。然後是 24 財年潛在利潤率擴張 25 到 50 個基點，你能討論一下擴張的主要驅動因素是什麼嗎？

Yes. I mean it's a -- it's an emphasis that the company has had. We're going through the budget process, frankly, after this call, we've done, we'll start the process of putting our budget together. But -- we just have a mantra to get more efficient where we can get more efficient. And some of it comes from operations. Some of it comes from sales. Some of it comes from G&A. It's really across the business and where we see an opportunity to become more efficient. Not simply just cut costs, obviously, that's important, but also deploy technology where appropriate, to become better at doing what we're doing. We do it. I would say that many of the technologies that you read about and that you hear, we don't trump it, but we use.

是的。我的意思是這是 - 這是公司的重點。我們正在進行預算流程，坦率地說，在這次電話會議之後，我們已經完成了，我們將開始整合預算的流程。但是 - 我們只是有一個口頭禪來提高效率，我們可以提高效率。其中一些來自運營。其中一些來自銷售。其中一些來自 G&A。它確實涉及整個企業，我們看到了提高效率的機會。顯然，不僅僅是削減成本，這很重要，而且還要在適當的地方部署技術，以便更好地完成我們正在做的事情。我們做到了。我想說的是，您讀到和聽到的許多技術，我們並沒有勝過它，但我們使用了。

And we think that advances in things like AI can be of tremendous help to technical services businesses. So we're excited about the potential, we understand the risk and are actively looking at how we can deploy those technologies to get more efficient, get better at serving the clients.

我們認為，人工智能等領域的進步可以為技術服務企業提供巨大幫助。因此，我們對潛力感到興奮，我們了解風險，並正在積極研究如何部署這些技術以提高效率，更好地為客戶服務。

Our next question comes from Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

So I guess there's a school of thought out there that just one of the byproducts of the banking crisis, could be some tightening of credit, small businesses find it harder to get loans. They tend to bank with a lot of the regionals, et cetera. I'm just wondering what your take is on that as we start to look into fiscal '24. It doesn't sound like you guys are really assuming a recession per se in this preliminary outlook for next year. So I just want to get a reaction to that to start.

所以我猜有一種觀點認為，銀行業危機的副產品之一可能是信貸收緊，小企業更難獲得貸款。他們傾向於與許多地區銀行合作，等等。我只是想知道在我們開始研究 24 財年時您對此有何看法。在明年的初步展望中，你們似乎並沒有真正假設經濟衰退本身。所以我只想開始對此做出反應。

Yes, Jason, I think I kind of mentioned it in my remarks in some other questions. I don't think there's any doubt. I mean, prime is at 8% for small and midsized business centers and you talk to any regional bank that I've heard, and there's going to be some tightening of credit. That's part of the reason why we've seen a lot of our customers engaging us on our ERTC product.

是的，Jason，我想我在其他一些問題的評論中提到了它。我認為沒有任何疑問。我的意思是，中小型商業中心的優惠利率為 8%，你可以與我聽說的任何地區銀行交談，信貸會有所收緊。這就是為什麼我們看到很多客戶與我們合作使用我們的 ERTC 產品的部分原因。

So it was interesting, I would say as we approach some of our clients, some of our clients feel like, I really don't need that. A lot of our clients don't -- again, we're Main Street small business owners. They're not -- they're not looking for a handout and they're probably sometimes a little gun shy to get out -- there's been a lot of talk about auditing this stuff.

所以這很有趣，我會說當我們接近一些客戶時，我們的一些客戶覺得，我真的不需要那個。我們的很多客戶都不知道——同樣，我們是大街上的小企業主。他們不是——他們不是在尋找施捨，他們有時可能有點害怕出去——關於審計這些東西的討論很多。

We had a bunch of clients that have come back to us and said, "Hey, I can use this money. And on average, it's $180,000 per client. So we've been doing that. We created partnerships with fintechs during the PPP during the pandemic, and we're also helping our clients from that perspective as well because we've really become a trusted source for our clients to help them when they're trying to figure out how to take advantage of tax programs, of government programs.

我們有很多客戶回來說，“嘿，我可以用這筆錢。平均每個客戶 180,000 美元。所以我們一直在這樣做。我們在 PPP 期間與金融科技公司建立了合作夥伴關係大流行病，我們也從這個角度幫助我們的客戶，因為我們確實成為了客戶值得信賴的來源，可以在他們試圖弄清楚如何利用稅收計劃和政府計劃時為他們提供幫助.

When you look at the PPP loans, 9% of all of the PPP loans in the U.S. was placed by Paychex. That was more than JPMorgan and Bank of America, you guys combined. And so I think we're continuing to support them and help them, and we'll continue to look for ways that we can help them access nontraditional funding sources. And I think that's another part of our value proposition that our customers and our CPA partners are appreciating.

當你查看 PPP 貸款時，美國所有 PPP 貸款中有 9% 是由 Paychex 發放的。這比摩根大通和美國銀行加起來還要多。因此，我認為我們將繼續支持和幫助他們，我們將繼續尋找可以幫助他們獲得非傳統資金來源的方法。我認為這是我們的客戶和我們的 CPA 合作夥伴所讚賞的價值主張的另一部分。

Okay. Understood. As a follow-up, I just wanted to ask on the float side of things, maybe a 2-parter there; the first part just being, obviously, the unrealized losses have increased with the rates going up, but just wanted to confirm, you guys can comfortably meet all the float obligations just with short-term component? I know you said so far to date, obviously, that's been the case. But I just wanted to make sure we shouldn't expect any material amount of realized losses? And then just any thoughts on Fed now coming this summer. Do you see any potential impacts on float if it's adopted by enough banks? And maybe just talk about how your float income breaks down between payroll and tax pieces.

好的。明白了。作為後續行動，我只是想問一下事情的浮動方面，也許那裡有兩個人；第一部分只是，很明顯，未實現的損失隨著利率的上升而增加，但只是想確認一下，你們是否可以僅通過短期部分輕鬆履行所有浮動義務？我知道你說到目前為止，顯然，情況就是這樣。但我只是想確保我們不應該期望任何實質性的已實現損失？然後是關於今年夏天即將到來的美聯儲的任何想法。如果足夠多的銀行採用它，您認為它對浮動有任何潛在影響嗎？也許只是談談你的浮動收入如何在工資和稅項之間分解。

Yes. Let me take the first part. Yes, Jason, obviously, one, as John mentioned earlier in the call, when you have interest rates rising 450 basis points at the pace it did and you're holding very high-quality securities, but our interest rates at 1.5%, you're going to take -- you're going to see some of the unrealized losses that you see in the portfolio. We hold our securities to maturity. So that really doesn't represent an issue. We've had swings from plus $100 million plus net now obviously to this point, had nothing to do with credit. So there's really no issues there. Understand why you ask and understand all of the concerns that others had.

是的。讓我先講第一部分。是的，Jason，顯然，正如 John 在電話會議早些時候提到的那樣，當你的利率以過去的速度上漲 450 個基點並且你持有非常優質的證券，但我們的利率為 1.5%，你將要承擔——你將看到你在投資組合中看到的一些未實現的損失。我們持有證券至到期日。所以這真的不代表問題。顯然到現在為止，我們已經從 1 億美元以上淨值波動，與信貸無關。所以那裡真的沒有問題。理解你為什麼問並理解其他人的所有擔憂。

So those securities will roll off the portfolio as they mature, just to remind people on the call, our average duration is around 3.5 years or so. So this is relatively quick. So no issues there. High quality, we really only about typically in A or above and no concerns there. The second part of your question, I didn't catch. I was focusing too much on the first part, Jason. So could you just...

因此，這些證券將在到期時從投資組合中退出，只是提醒電話會議的人，我們的平均期限約為 3.5 年左右。所以這個比較快。所以那裡沒有問題。高質量，我們通常只在 A 或以上，對此沒有任何顧慮。你問題的第二部分，我沒聽清楚。我太專注於第一部分了，傑森。那你能不能...

Yes, so I was just asking about Fed now with those real-time [rails] coming this summer. Just any thoughts on how that could, if it all impact float balances, float income obviously like we'll see how many banks adopt it, right, but -- and then anything just on your float income, how it breaks down between the payroll and the tax pieces? Because I know, obviously, some of the float you hold a lot longer. So...

是的，所以我現在只是在問美聯儲，這些實時 [rails] 將在今年夏天推出。如果這一切都影響浮動餘額，浮動收入顯然就像我們會看到有多少銀行採用它，對，但是 - 然後任何關於你的浮動收入的事情，它如何在工資單之間分解和稅件？因為我知道，很明顯，您持有的一些浮動時間更長。所以...

Yes. Yes. Good question. So yes, we've been anticipating that at some point what the current landscape of payments, certainly ACH windows, which could provide some measure of the float that we have is going to narrow. But you, of course, you know business very well. A lot of our float income is not coming necessarily from overnight payroll, it is coming from taxes and that should not be impacted significantly under the Fed rules.

是的。是的。好問題。所以，是的，我們一直在預計，在某些時候，當前的支付格局，當然是 ACH 窗口，可以提供我們所擁有的浮動的某種衡量標準，將會縮小。但是，當然，您非常了解業務。我們的很多浮動收入不一定來自隔夜工資，而是來自稅收，根據美聯儲的規定，這不應受到重大影響。

The other part that I would say flip around there is that we stopped and there's not been a lot of conversations really as much lately about real-time payments. We do think that there will be opportunities in the future and that may be an opportunity to monetize even if you lose some element of the float income.

我要說的另一部分是我們停止了，最近關於實時支付的對話真的不多。我們確實認為未來會有機會，即使你失去了浮動收入的一部分，這也可能是一個貨幣化的機會。

Final point, just the advertorial since this is my 12th year now. As you know, Jason, there was a point when our business was heavily dependent on float 27% or so of net income. We're in a different world right now. We'll manage through it even if it doesn't materialize quite the way we expect it to. But that's the breakdown of the 3 pieces that I think will impact us going into the future.

最後一點，只是軟文，因為這是我第 12 年了。正如你所知，傑森，有一段時間我們的業務嚴重依賴浮動淨收入的 27% 左右。我們現在處在一個不同的世界。即使它沒有像我們期望的那樣實現，我們也會設法解決它。但這是我認為會影響我們走向未來的 3 個部分的細分。

Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Efrain, I wanted to go back to your comment on Management Solutions, payroll and pricing. Do you think it's fair to assume that considering the inflationary environment we're in and obviously, that's impacting your costs as well that the pricing on the payroll side will be higher than normal, maybe not as high as it was last year, but higher than normal?

Efrain，我想回到你對管理解決方案、工資單和定價的評論。您認為考慮到我們所處的通貨膨脹環境是否公平，這顯然也會影響您的成本，工資單方面的定價將高於正常水平，可能不會像去年那樣高，但會更高比正常？

So I'll turn it over to for John some comments on pricing because I think that -- I think we need to distinguish between pure pricing and value delivered to customers. So -- but let me answer your question. So as you know, Kartik and everyone on the call knows, we typically have said that pricing is in the 2% to 4% range on a realized basis. So maybe it could be a little bit higher for some clients, but frequently or sometimes it's discounted.

所以我會把它交給約翰一些關於定價的評論，因為我認為 - 我認為我們需要區分純定價和交付給客戶的價值。所以 - 但讓我回答你的問題。正如你所知，Kartik 和電話中的每個人都知道，我們通常會說實際定價在 2% 到 4% 的範圍內。所以對於某些客戶來說可能會高一點，但經常或有時會打折。

I don't want to talk too much to the specifics around pricing next year. I think the pricing environment will not be quite the same as it was this year. I think it was somewhat of an unusual situation given inflation. Having said that, I just want to limit that comment to the issue of pricing and not let them not include value. I do think there's always an opportunity to think about how to add more value to a customer and then charge them for that because they're willing to accept that. I'll let John comment on some of the things that we think about in that respect.

我不想過多談論明年的定價細節。我認為定價環境不會與今年完全相同。考慮到通貨膨脹，我認為這是一種不尋常的情況。話雖如此，我只想將評論限制在定價問題上，而不是讓它們不包括價值。我確實認為總是有機會考慮如何為客戶增加更多價值，然後向他們收費，因為他們願意接受。我將讓 John 評論我們在這方面考慮的一些事情。

Yes. We certainly don't want to talk about future pricing on this call. But I think it's fair to say that we have gotten far more scientific and precise about the ability and willingness of our customer base to pay based upon a series of attributes about the way that they consume our services, the way they want to be served, and what products that if we attach, we see better stickiness and price elasticity.

是的。我們當然不想在這次電話會議上談論未來的定價。但我認為可以公平地說，我們已經更加科學和準確地了解我們的客戶群的支付能力和意願，這是基於一系列關於他們使用我們服務的方式、他們希望獲得服務的方式的屬性，以及如果我們附加哪些產品，我們會看到更好的粘性和價格彈性。

So a lot of AI, a lot of data science, a lot of modeling for us to be very precise in that regard. And then as Efrain said, I think we try to talk a lot more about value and about how we engage them in the utilization of our products and services. We approached over -- for the first time in third quarter over 100 million mobile users interactions with our Paychex Flex product. And a vast majority of those are employees engaging the product. And we've been doing a lot to really introduce that to not only our clients, but their employees, but now they're getting accustomed to the notification, the way Paychex, the way they can make changes in real time.

所以很多人工智能，很多數據科學，很多建模讓我們在這方面非常精確。然後正如 Efrain 所說，我認為我們嘗試更多地談論價值以及我們如何讓他們參與我們的產品和服務的使用。我們接近了 - 第三季度首次超過 1 億移動用戶與我們的 Paychex Flex 產品互動。其中絕大多數是參與產品的員工。我們一直在做很多工作，不僅向我們的客戶，而且向他們的員工真正介紹這一點，但現在他們已經習慣了通知，Paychex 的方式，他們可以實時進行更改的方式。

And what we're seeing is people that we can do that with actually see that as a higher value. And as you can imagine, it's a higher -- it's a better customer experience, and there's also some service and margin benefit there at the same time. So that's been another lever that we understand as well that we're pushing on. So I think what you're going to see is us continue to understand what things we need to engage the customer around that if we engage them on those items, it's going to increase the value they get from Paychex. And because of our competitive position, allow us to, I think, generate more value to the bottom line at the same time.

我們看到的是，我們可以與之合作的人實際上將其視為更高的價值。正如你可以想像的那樣，它是一種更高的——更好的客戶體驗，同時還有一些服務和利潤收益。所以這是我們理解的另一個槓桿，我們正在推動。所以我認為你將看到的是我們繼續了解我們需要哪些東西來吸引客戶，如果我們讓他們參與這些項目，這將增加他們從 Paychex 獲得的價值。而且由於我們的競爭地位，我認為讓我們能夠同時為底線創造更多價值。

Fair. And then just -- we've talked a lot about, obviously, PEO and ASO. And I'm just wondering if you could give a little bit of context as to revenue per client PEO versus ASO?

公平的。然後 - 我們已經談了很多，很明顯，PEO 和 ASO。我只是想知道您是否可以提供一些關於每位客戶 PEO 與 ASO 的收入的背景信息？

Yes. I'd say, Kartik, the way to think about it is ASO does not, in general includes insurances. And so what you end up getting in a little bit of price on PEO on the base product is the added revenue that comes from benefit attachment, typically, workers' comp and also healthcare. Not all clients take health care, but when they do, then the revenue can be significantly higher.

是的。我會說，Kartik，考慮它的方式是 ASO 通常不包括保險。因此，您最終在基本產品的 PEO 上獲得的一點點價格是來自福利附件的額外收入，通常是工人補償和醫療保健。並非所有客戶都接受醫療保健，但當他們這樣做時，收入可能會高得多。

Our next question comes from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Bryan Keane。

Just a clarification on the preliminary outlook for fiscal year '24. It doesn't sound like you expect the U.S. recession in that guidance. Is that correct? And I guess if we do see a U.S. recession, how would it show up in the numbers, Efrain, because there's definitely a lag impact to where it shows up in the actual financials?

只是澄清 24 財年的初步前景。聽起來您並不希望該指南中的美國經濟衰退。那是對的嗎？我想如果我們確實看到美國經濟衰退，它會如何顯示在數字中，Efrain，因為它在實際財務數據中的顯示位置肯定存在滯後影響？

Yes. So Bryan, that is a good point. And obviously, we all hear the same chatter everyone is hearing. So let me just give the answer to that. That's a little bit more new one. At this point, I can only tell you what we see right now. And I can say, as we said we've repeated earlier, we see signs of moderation that we've been seeing progress since the fall after Q1, but we don't see any significant signs of slowing. So we just got through the last 3 months, John gave an overview of kind of what was happening from the selling season, that would have been to a signal that, hey, maybe something going on here that we needed to pay attention to and incorporate.

是的。所以布萊恩，這是一個很好的觀點。顯然，我們都聽到了每個人都聽到的同樣的喋喋不休。所以讓我給出答案。這是一個有點新的。在這一點上，我只能告訴你我們現在看到的。我可以說，正如我們之前說過的那樣，我們看到了自第一季度秋季以來取得進展的溫和跡象，但我們沒有看到任何明顯的放緩跡象。所以我們剛剛度過了過去的 3 個月，John 概述了銷售季節發生的事情，這本來是一個信號，嘿，也許這裡發生了一些我們需要注意並納入的事情.

At this point, through the selling season, we haven't seen signs of a slowdown. Again, I've seen signs of moderation and we've incorporated that in our thinking. To the extent that we saw a slowdown, obviously, we'd see it by July, and we've incorporated that in our thinking, we come back and say, guess what, things are slowing down. I don't think that things will occur that way, but it could.

在這一點上，在整個銷售旺季，我們還沒有看到放緩的跡象。再一次，我看到了節制的跡象，我們已經將其納入我們的想法。就我們看到放緩的程度而言，很明顯，我們會在 7 月看到它，並且我們已經將其納入我們的想法，我們回來說，猜猜看，事情正在放緩。我不認為事情會那樣發生，但它可以。

The way we think about the year is really -- and I've said this probably for the last 3 or 4 years, it's in 2 halves. So I think that our confidence in terms of what we expect to see in the first half is at this stage, decent. I mean by thesis, I mean, we've got enough trending to say something should not fall off the cliff in the first half of the year. The Fed is tight. And John said, our clients are going to be much more impacted by rate increases in the prime rate than anything else. And at this point, they seem to be absorbing where we're at and it seems to be absorbing a higher rate environment.

我們對這一年的看法真的是——我可能在過去的 3 或 4 年裡都這麼說過，它分為兩半。因此，我認為我們對上半年的預期信心在現階段是不錯的。我的意思是論文，我的意思是，我們有足夠的趨勢可以說今年上半年不應該掉下懸崖。美聯儲很緊。約翰說，我們的客戶將受到最優惠利率上漲的影響，而不是其他任何因素。在這一點上，他們似乎正在吸收我們所處的位置，而且似乎正在吸收更高速率的環境。

And the other thing that I would say is that our thought process is that we're getting close to peak short-term rates. So if we put that all of those factors into the gumbo and then stir it up a bit and see what our view is of first half and look at the micro factors in the business, strength in retirement services, strength in HR, we're seeing good progress on HCM and then a rebound in PEO, it produces the results we have.

我要說的另一件事是，我們的思維過程是我們正在接近短期利率峰值。因此，如果我們將所有這些因素都放入濃湯中，然後稍微攪拌一下，看看我們對上半年的看法，看看業務中的微觀因素、退休服務的實力、人力資源的實力，我們看到 HCM 取得良好進展，然後 PEO 反彈，它產生了我們所擁有的結果。

Now the nuance that I would provide to that is that, that takes us through, as you know, the end of November. That's the first half. We'll come up for air and see is that the trends that we expected to occur in the back half of the year actually materialized. At this point, it's a little tough to call that 9 months out, but that's why we labeled it preliminary. Right now, the point, Bryan, after I get all of those words is simply to say at this point, we don't have anything in our data that's suggesting that a slowdown is occurring or is it imminent.

現在我要提供的細微差別是，如您所知，這將帶我們度過 11 月底。這是上半場。我們將公開發表意見，看看我們預期在今年下半年出現的趨勢是否真的實現了。在這一點上，很難說 9 個月結束了，但這就是我們將其標記為初步的原因。現在，布萊恩，在我聽完所有這些話之後，我只想說，我們的數據中沒有任何跡象表明經濟放緩正在發生或即將到來。

Now if the Fed were to decide that it needs to go back to a cycle of 50 basis points increased rates, we're going to have a different conversation really quick. Don't see that happening. And 1 final point. All of us on the call we're wondering 2 or 3 weeks ago when we're going to have a systemic banking crisis on our hand, but we certainly were looking at that and concerned about it. It seems like the economy was resilient enough and the Fed did, I should say, treasury did the right things in terms of shoring up the banking system.

現在，如果美聯儲決定它需要回到加息 50 個基點的周期，我們將很快進行不同的對話。不要看到這種情況發生。最後一點。 2 或 3 週前，我們所有人都在想我們何時會遇到系統性銀行業危機，但我們當然正在關注並關注它。經濟似乎具有足夠的彈性，我應該說，美聯儲確實在支撐銀行體系方面做了正確的事情。

So we're -- we have the environment we have. We understand what factors are moderating. We think that what this outlook incorporates is our best thinking on the environment. And I think that -- having said that, our confidence in the second half, obviously, will be something that we'll talk about -- talk more about as we go through the year.

所以我們 - 我們擁有我們擁有的環境。我們了解哪些因素正在緩和。我們認為，這種展望所包含的是我們對環境的最佳思考。而且我認為 - 話雖如此，我們對下半年的信心，顯然，將是我們將要談論的事情 - 在我們度過這一年時更多地談論。

Yes. And I would -- yes, Bryan. I'd just point you to our Paychex IHS job index reports on our website and look at January and look at February, we released it every month. Both months, the job index improved. We didn't see that in any other consecutive months in the prior fiscal year. So certainly, we don't see as Efrain already said, and I can reiterate what Efrain said, but even the edge, the benchmarks that we would see that would be sized, we've been doing this for a while. And we have a lot of historical models of what it looks like leading into a recession.

是的。我會——是的，布萊恩。我只想向您指出我們網站上的 Paychex IHS 工作指數報告，看看 1 月和 2 月，我們每個月都會發布它。這兩個月，就業指數都有所改善。在上一財年的任何其他連續月份中，我們都沒有看到這一點。所以當然，我們不會像 Efrain 已經說過的那樣看到，我可以重申 Efrain 所說的話，但即使是邊緣，我們會看到的基準也會被調整，我們已經這樣做了一段時間。我們有很多關於導致經濟衰退的歷史模型。

And we're just not seeing those. And what we hear from our clients in terms of the labor market, in terms of their employment, again, moderation, stabilization. They're not signing up for any big pieces. And I understand the challenge, and I try to put it in perspective is saying, how can you hear all this on the TV and the newspapers of what's happening and then rationalize that with what I walk into the office and hear every day.

我們只是沒有看到那些。我們從客戶那裡聽到的關於勞動力市場、就業方面的信息，再次是適度、穩定。他們沒有簽約任何大件。我理解挑戰，我試著把它放在正確的角度說，你怎麼能從電視和報紙上聽到所有這些正在發生的事情，然後用我每天走進辦公室聽到的東西來合理化。

And I do think in some respects, I said it in earlier comments and so the way I've rationalized it is we -- there's 2 different small business worlds. And I think there's a lot of money put into a lot of tech companies, a lot of people that didn't have to make money, could spend money, could pay whatever they needed to, could hire as many people even if they didn't have stuff for them to do. I think that bubble is bursting and you're seeing that being digested.

我確實認為在某些方面，我在之前的評論中說過，所以我合理化它的方式是我們 - 有兩個不同的小企業世界。而且我認為有很多錢投入了很多科技公司，很多人不需要賺錢，可以花錢，可以支付他們需要的任何費用，即使他們不這樣做也可以僱傭盡可能多的人。他們沒有事情可做。我認為泡沫正在破滅，你看到它正在被消化。

I don't see the foundation of Main Street small business at this point, having those same type of dynamics that you're reading in the paper. I just simply can't put it any other way, but we're just not seeing it in the numbers. Now is there going to be a trickle down. And certainly, the banking thing last week was certain concerning because that gets contagious. Hopefully, the policymakers and individuals can do things to continue to help support Main Street small businesses from being impacted from this kind of irrational actors that are doing things that don't make sense. But I'll get off that soapbox.

目前我還沒有看到 Main Street 小型企業的基礎，它們具有您在論文中閱讀的相同類型的動態。我只是不能用任何其他方式來表達它，但我們只是沒有在數字中看到它。現在會有涓滴。當然，上週的銀行業事件肯定令人擔憂，因為它會傳染。希望政策制定者和個人可以做一些事情來繼續幫助支持大街小企業免受這種做無意義事情的非理性行為者的影響。但我會離開那個肥皂盒。

Our next question comes from Peter Christiansen with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Peter Christiansen。

Just wondering if we can get a sense for the health of the top of the funnel, if we were to exclude the ERTC side of things, what are you seeing from new business formation and also perhaps some share shift from regional sell filers, that kind of stuff would be helpful color there.

只是想知道我們是否能了解漏斗頂部的健康狀況，如果我們要排除 ERTC 方面的事情，您從新業務形成中看到了什麼，也許還有一些份額從區域銷售申報者轉移，那種那裡的東西會有幫助。

Yes. Peter, again, I'll go back. What we see is on business applications, business starts, again, they're back to pre-pandemic levels. So I was trying to explain to people that when you look -- when I look at 5, because we're doing our budget planning, so I'm looking back almost 5 fiscal years now and fiscal year '19 stands out because then you see all this auditing going on in the other fiscal years.

是的。彼得，再一次，我會回去的。我們看到的是業務應用程序，業務又開始了，它們又回到了大流行前的水平。所以我試圖向人們解釋，當你看 - 當我看 5，因為我們正在做我們的預算計劃，所以我現在回顧近 5 個財政年度，而 19 財年脫穎而出，因為那時你查看其他財政年度進行的所有這些審計。

Business starts are down from where they were historically. And that's why when I even look at some of our retention in the small end, that doesn't surprise me because even in good times or bad times, a small business that starts 2 years later, most of them aren't in business. So when I look at it, there's a good stable new business starts. When I looked at our sales from the third quarter, they were strong across the board, not just in ERTC but across the board.

業務開工率低於歷史水平。這就是為什麼當我什至看到我們在小端的一些保留時，這並不讓我感到驚訝，因為即使在好時期或壞時期，一個 2 年後開始的小企業，他們中的大多數都沒有營業。所以當我看的時候，有一個很好的穩定的新業務開始。當我查看我們第三季度的銷售額時，它們全面強勁，不僅在 ERTC 方面，而且在整個行業。

And so I really -- again, I'll go back. I'm not seeing anything on a macro level that would indicate to me that there are macro issues or there are demand issues relative to the products and services that we're offering.

所以我真的 - 再一次，我會回去。我在宏觀層面上沒有看到任何跡象表明存在宏觀問題或與我們提供的產品和服務相關的需求問題。

Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Marcon 和 Baird。

A couple of questions. One is basically in terms of the margin guide, or the preliminary thoughts with regards to margins for next year. To what extent would you expect to see any sort of improvement in terms of the margins ex the impact of float income? And how are you thinking about that?

幾個問題。一個基本上是關於利潤率指南，或者關於明年利潤率的初步想法。除了浮動收入的影響之外，您預計利潤率會有多大程度的改善？你怎麼想的？

Yes, it's a good question. Mark, I don't think float will play as big an impact on margin expansion as it did this year. I will hold the answer to that question. And so I've gone through the budget process because it will depend on where I end up in terms of float income for next year. We anticipate that it will grow so that will have a modest impact on the -- it will exert a positive impact on margin next year. But remember, Mark, one other thing is that we called out ERTC as moderating, that's going to exert a countervailing force.

是的，這是個好問題。馬克，我認為浮動對利潤率擴張的影響不會像今年那樣大。我會保留這個問題的答案。所以我已經完成了預算流程，因為這將取決於我明年的浮動收入。我們預計它會增長，從而對明年的利潤率產生積極影響。但請記住，馬克，另一件事是我們稱 ERTC 為緩和，這將發揮反作用力。

So when I pull those 2 together, I'll figure it out and answer on Q4. But I don't think -- I think there will be, at the end of the day, likely real improvement in operating margin when all is said and done.

所以當我把這兩個放在一起時，我會弄清楚並在第四季度回答。但我不認為 - 我認為最終，當一切都說完之後，營業利潤率可能會有真正的改善。

Do you think there will or will not be?

你認為會有還是不會？

Will, that's my expectation. But I haven't gone...

威爾，這是我的期望。但是我沒有去...

But ex quote, we should see some margin improvement. And then -- and then with regards to -- I know you're in the budget process now, but are you anticipating an increase in terms of the sales force and in terms of the overall headcount within the business? Or are the technological innovations that you're making sufficient to basically continue to drive the business with the same headcount.

但根據報價，我們應該會看到一些利潤率的改善。然後 - 然後關於 - 我知道你現在正在預算過程中，但你是否預計銷售人員和企業內的總人數會增加？或者您正在進行的技術創新是否足以基本上繼續以相同的員工人數推動業務發展。

Yes. Good question. I'll answer it in 2 ways and then let John give his commentary because I'm sure he will be scrutinizing every headcount in the sales budget. But the short answer is that we're where it makes sense to add headcount to drive greater sales, we are likely to do that, and I'll let John talk to that. But I think you rightly identified something that has been the feature of the company, which is increasingly if you look at not only in the U.S. but also in Europe, where we also have a growing business, a lot of our sales are done digitally and do not require at least at a minimum the level of sales involvement that our field sales force provides.

是的。好問題。我將以兩種方式回答這個問題，然後讓 John 發表評論，因為我相信他會仔細審查銷售預算中的每一位員工。但簡短的回答是，我們現在有必要增加員工人數以推動更大的銷售額，我們很可能會這樣做，我會讓約翰談談。但我認為你正確地發現了公司的特點，如果你不僅在美國而且在歐洲，我們的業務也在不斷增長，我們的很多銷售都是數字化的，並且至少不需要我們的現場銷售人員提供的最低銷售參與水平。

So you're going to have a mix. And I don't think that we know quite yet whether there are adds, but I would be careful because I know our competitors tout their headcount adds as a precursor or a driver of growth that is not necessarily where we are at. We can grow without adding headcount, although there are places where we may choose to do that. I'll let John talk to that.

所以你要混合。而且我認為我們還不太清楚是否有增加，但我會小心，因為我知道我們的競爭對手吹捧他們的員工增加作為先驅或增長的驅動力，而這不一定是我們所處的位置。我們可以在不增加員工人數的情況下實現增長，儘管在某些地方我們可能會選擇這樣做。我會讓約翰談談這個。

Yes. I don't tell adding expense to the business very frequently. So I think that we're constantly looking to make sure that we have the right go-to-market strategies and the right go-to-market coverage. We are certainly focused on using our vast data sets and analytics and digital engagement as much as we can. As Efrain said, I went back 5 years ago, our digital, if you think about just in the U.S., I mean, including international paychex.com and surepayroll.com, probably a 20-point improvement in the percent -- 20 percentage point improvement. And what we're getting there. We're driving analytics to make our sales force more productive, so instead of just cold calling across the market or inside on client base, we're using data analytics and models and triggers of behaviors of people engaging our systems to give them active list.

是的。我不會說經常增加業務費用。因此，我認為我們一直在尋求確保我們擁有正確的上市戰略和正確的上市覆蓋範圍。我們當然專注於盡可能多地使用我們龐大的數據集和分析以及數字參與。正如 Efrain 所說，我回到 5 年前，我們的數字，如果你只考慮美國，我的意思是，包括國際 paychex.com 和 surepayroll.com，百分比可能提高 20 個百分點 - 20 個百分點改進。以及我們正在取得的成果。我們正在推動分析以提高我們的銷售人員的工作效率，因此我們使用數據分析和模型以及參與我們系統的人員行為的觸發器來為他們提供活動列表，而不是僅僅在市場上或在客戶群內部打冷電話.

So I think there's opportunity for productivity. And we're doing a lot more digital engagement inside our applications and actually creating digital experiences to drive more attachment of ancillary products and services. So I think when we're sitting down for the budget, we're certainly going to add sales reps engaging our strategic partners, doing things that we need to do to cover the market and the market opportunity we have, but we're equally balanced on making sure we're making the investments in digital engagement and driving productivity and using the data analytics we have to make sure we're making every rep as productive as they can be.

所以我認為有提高生產力的機會。我們正在我們的應用程序中進行更多的數字參與，並實際創建數字體驗以推動更多輔助產品和服務的附加。所以我認為，當我們坐下來製定預算時，我們肯定會增加銷售代表，讓我們的戰略合作夥伴參與進來，做我們需要做的事情來覆蓋市場和我們擁有的市場機會，但我們同樣在確保我們在數字參與和提高生產力方面進行投資以及使用我們必須確保我們使每個代表盡可能高效的數據分析之間取得平衡。

Fantastic. And then 1 last one. Did you say what your -- how much pays per control ended up increasing over the course of this quarter or this year on a year-over-year basis? I've got some investors that are under the impression that your pays per control might be up by 300 bps and then they're factoring in the ERTC and looking at the underlying growth and I'm not sure that the numbers are right. So just what did you see in terms of p per control for this last quarter?

極好的。然後是最後一個。你有沒有說你的 - 每個控制的薪酬在本季度或今年與去年同期相比最終增加了多少？我有一些投資者的印像是，您的每次控制費用可能會上漲 300 個基點，然後他們將 ERTC 考慮在內並關注潛在的增長，我不確定這些數字是否正確。那麼，您在上個季度的每個控件的 p 方面看到了什麼？

So we didn't talk about it, but I will say that through the year, we have seen increases in p per control or we would say, checks, and it's moderated as we've gone through the year. So that -- in some ways, it's been a tale of 2 cities. The first half is -- at this point has end up being different than the second half of the year.

所以我們沒有談論它，但我要說的是，在這一年裡，我們看到每個控制的 p 有所增加，或者我們會說，檢查，並且隨著我們經歷了這一年，它有所緩和。所以——在某些方面，這是兩個城市的故事。上半年 - 在這一點上最終與下半年有所不同。

And Mark, just keep in mind, remember, we're Main Street small business was a year ago in terms of their ability to hire people. They were understaffed, desperate to get people. So you've got the benefit of that hiring up. It's not that there's a deceleration. It took -- this has been an interesting year in terms of people getting and that's helping them getting staffed up. Now they're staffed up. I'm not expecting that they're going to have another -- a big group of employees, regardless of whether or not there was a recession or not, right? I mean they're fully staffed. And we would expect a moderation of the growth in the number of employees in our clients.

馬克，請記住，記住，就他們僱用人員的能力而言，我們是一年前的大街小企業。他們人手不足，迫切需要人手。所以你得到了招聘的好處。這並不是說有減速。就人們而言，這是有趣的一年，這有助於他們配備人員。現在他們已經配備了人員。我不希望他們會有另一個——一大群員工，不管是否有經濟衰退，對吧？我的意思是他們人手充足。我們預計我們客戶的員工人數增長會有所放緩。

Our next question comes from Eugene Simuni with MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Eugene Simuni 和 MoffettNathanson。

I just have 1 quick question. Wanted to follow up on the comment, John, you made on SECURE Act 2.0. Always very interesting to hear about how kind of regulatory developments can help you guys. So can you elaborate a bit specifically on what the opportunities for Paychex might be from that act? And then what is the time frame for when we might see that flow into your financial results?

我只有 1 個快速問題。約翰，想跟進你對 SECURE Act 2.0 發表的評論。聽到監管發展如何幫助你們總是很有趣。那麼，您能否具體說明 Paychex 可能從該行為中獲得哪些機會？那麼我們什麼時候可以看到這些資金流入您的財務業績？

Yes. Yes. So as we said, we're in our budget and we're really in our planning stages to figure out how we want to approach the Secure Act 2. We started some education, certainly within our base and we're trying to figure out in scope the size of the opportunity across the market and determine what investment we're going to do that. And that's something I think we'll talk about more in the next call.

是的。是的。因此，正如我們所說，我們在預算範圍內，而且我們確實處於計劃階段，以弄清楚我們希望如何處理《安全法案 2》。我們開始了一些教育，當然是在我們的基礎上，我們正在努力弄清楚在整個市場範圍內機會的大小，並確定我們將要進行的投資。我認為我們將在下一次電話會議中詳細討論這一點。

We're doing a lot of surveys trying to get where people are in their understanding of what it means. There's a huge education effort that I think has to go on, but I think it's a pretty powerful value proposition. Like I said, I think the secular labor problem is going to continue. I don't -- even we get to a recession, we just simply don't have enough people working. The labor participation rate is just not big enough to meet even a lower demand were at 3.4%, 3.5% unemployment.

我們正在進行大量調查，試圖了解人們對其含義的理解程度。我認為必須繼續進行大量的教育工作，但我認為這是一個非常強大的價值主張。就像我說的，我認為世俗勞工問題將繼續存在。我不——即使我們陷入衰退，我們也只是沒有足夠的人在工作。勞動力參與率不足以滿足更低的需求，分別為 3.4%、3.5% 的失業率。

And so I think the simple fact is small and midsized businesses needing to compete against large employers, we typically have mutual benefit plans. It's going to be a secular trend that's going to continue, and I think we're well positioned to do that. And I say that because that's going to create the opportunity for a 401(k) plan. And the SECURE Act 2.0, just to give you an idea, pretty much if you're an importer with between 20 and 50 employees, we could provide you and start up a 401(k) plan, and you would pay Paychex literally nothing because you pay us for a startup fee, you pay us for the other fees that we would have there. But you'd get all that back through tax credit. So it's -- basically, you can add the plan.

所以我認為一個簡單的事實是，中小型企業需要與大型雇主競爭，我們通常有互惠計劃。這將是一個持續的長期趨勢，我認為我們已經準備好做到這一點。我這麼說是因為這將為 401(k) 計劃創造機會。而 SECURE Act 2.0，只是給你一個想法，如果你是一個擁有 20 到 50 名員工的進口商，我們可以為你提供並啟動 401(k) 計劃，你幾乎不需要向 Paychex 支付任何費用，因為您向我們支付啟動費，您向我們支付我們在那裡的其他費用。但你會通過稅收抵免收回所有這些。所以它 - 基本上，您可以添加計劃。

And then if you want to contribute up to $1,000 to each employee, you can get that $1,000 as a tax credit as well in many circumstances. So I think there's not a lot of awareness. Look, we found the same thing with the ERTC. They're just a lot of small and midsized business owners, not even where these programs exist and then they have reluctance to participate because whether we want to like it or not, they have some skepticism about government programs and being on some government list.

然後，如果您想為每位員工貢獻最多 1,000 美元，那麼在許多情況下，您也可以獲得這 1,000 美元的稅收抵免。所以我認為沒有太多的意識。看，我們在 ERTC 上發現了同樣的事情。他們只是很多中小型企業主，即使存在這些計劃，他們也不願意參與，因為不管我們喜不喜歡，他們對政府計劃和在某些政府名單上有一些懷疑。

And we're really positioning ourselves as kind of this trusted adviser to help them and help facilitate that. And so we're doing a lot of studies on it. We're trying to figure out how big the opportunity is and certainly, we think it's a great thing for small, midsize businesses. And again, I applaud the Congress and all the partisanship that goes on in Washington. It's great to see them have a program like this, and I hope there's more programs like this in the years to come to support Main Street small business owners.

我們確實將自己定位為這種值得信賴的顧問，以幫助他們並幫助促進這一點。所以我們正在做很多研究。我們正在努力弄清楚這個機會有多大，當然，我們認為這對中小型企業來說是一件好事。再一次，我為國會和華盛頓的所有黨派之爭鼓掌。很高興看到他們有這樣的計劃，我希望在未來幾年有更多這樣的計劃來支持大街上的小企業主。

Our next question comes from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

Just a couple of questions from me. First, and I know we've talked a little bit about this both in previous quarters, but now, but can you recap for us a little bit why you think ERTC outperformed what you thought it would do during the course of this fiscal year? And then kind of how that contributes to you thinking that it could slow a little bit in next?

我有幾個問題。首先，我知道我們在前幾個季度都談過這個問題，但是現在，你能為我們回顧一下為什麼你認為 ERTC 在本財政年度的表現優於你的預期嗎？然後是什麼讓你認為它接下來會放慢一點？

I'll just start, John can take from there. Yes, Jim, I think that when we entered the year, we thought that there was widespread understanding and knowledge of the program such that as we went further and further into the base, clients would have already availed themselves of the service. What we actually found was that they were anxious to hear and to be educated with respect to the program and the way it works and our ability to facilitate their access to the program made them constructive about wanting to participate. The level of understanding was lower than we anticipated. John talked about that for many reasons, and it turned out that there would be a much bigger opportunity coming into this year than we had realized.

我會開始，約翰可以從那裡開始。是的，吉姆，我認為當我們進入這一年時，我們認為對該計劃有廣泛的理解和了解，因此隨著我們越來越深入基地，客戶已經可以利用該服務了。我們實際發現的是，他們渴望聽到和接受有關該計劃及其運作方式的教育，而我們幫助他們訪問該計劃的能力使他們對參與的意願產生了建設性的想法。理解程度低於我們的預期。約翰出於多種原因談到了這一點，事實證明，今年的機會比我們意識到的要大得多。

As we get into next year, more and more time has elapsed, the ability to access the programs is running out. One, it relates to a period of time that now will have been 18, 24 months ago. And so as we round the next year, into the beginning of calendar '24, we think that the opportunity both within our base and in general, will have moderated. So the back half of the year, we don't anticipate that there will be as much demand or opportunity. And any you want to...

隨著我們進入明年，越來越多的時間過去了，訪問程序的能力已經用完了。第一，它與現在應該是 18、24 個月前的一段時間有關。因此，當我們進入明年，進入日曆 '24 的開始時，我們認為我們基地內和總體上的機會都會減少。所以今年下半年，我們預計不會有那麼多的需求或機會。還有任何你想...

Yes. No, again, I would just reiterate, I think this is a good example of how we're trying to approach helping our clients. I think when the program was first announced, we did a lot with the PPP loan program. I talked about that 9% of all of them paired with fintech companies to be able to facilitate that. And we've really developed a muscle there to build an automated simple solution and an educational package and program for both our strategic partners, CPAs and for our clients to go through.

是的。不，我再次重申，我認為這是一個很好的例子，說明我們如何努力幫助我們的客戶。我認為當該計劃首次宣佈時，我們在 PPP 貸款計劃方面做了很多工作。我談到他們中有 9% 與金融科技公司合作以促進這一點。我們真的在那裡發展了一種力量，可以為我們的戰略合作夥伴、註冊會計師和我們的客戶建立一個自動化的簡單解決方案和一個教育包和計劃。

When the ERTC program came out, I think we thought they kind of knew about it, and we're just trying to do general education. And I think what we learned early on is that we're just not resonating. And a lot of people we thought they didn't qualify or were not sure or, quite frankly, by some of the just hassles and other challenges of participating in some other government programs, they felt like, hey, I don't need this right now, and I just can't -- I can't tolerate. I think we had 2 things kind of happen. One is our data scientist team began to look at actual data models, and we started to be able to pinpoint accurately be able to go to a client and say, we actually know from our data that you qualify, and this is how much we're talking about. So now you're saying, "Hey, I can get your check for $180,000." but you had to do with education, there was some more information, and then we made it a very simple process.

當 ERTC 項目出來時，我認為我們認為他們對此有所了解，而我們只是在嘗試進行通識教育。而且我認為我們很早就了解到我們只是沒有產生共鳴。很多人我們認為他們不符合資格或不確定，或者坦率地說，由於參與其他一些政府計劃的一些麻煩和其他挑戰，他們覺得，嘿，我不需要這個現在，我就是不能——我不能容忍。我認為我們發生了兩件事。一是我們的數據科學家團隊開始研究實際的數據模型，我們開始能夠準確地找到客戶並說，我們實際上從我們的數據中知道您符合條件，這就是我們重新談論。所以現在你說，“嘿，我可以給你 180,000 美元的支票。”但是你必須與教育有關，有更多的信息，然後我們使它成為一個非常簡單的過程。

So one was we were now instead of broadcasting to all of our clients, we were going with a specific database analysis to a specific client and saying, we have a high degree of confidence that you spend 10 minutes with us and we get a few pieces of information, we're going to be able to get you a check that would be meaningful and worth your time. That's one.

所以一個是我們現在不是向所有客戶廣播，而是對特定客戶進行特定的數據庫分析並說，我們非常有信心你花 10 分鐘和我們在一起，我們會得到一些片段的信息，我們將能夠為您提供一張有意義且值得您花時間的支票。那是一個。

Then we had to overcome all the obstacles. I think simultaneously to that, interest rates started to go up and the cost of capital started to go up. And I think a lot of small business owners who said, "Hey, I don't need it. It's not worth my time. I don't want to be associated with the government program," and may get audited and most business owners, small business owners are concerned, an audit would put them out of business worse than anything else. So I think they were avoiding it.

然後我們必須克服所有的障礙。我認為與此同時，利率開始上升，資本成本開始上升。而且我認為很多小企業主說，“嘿，我不需要它。這不值得我花時間。我不想與政府計劃相關聯，”並且可能會受到審計和大多數企業主, 小企業主擔心，審計將使他們破產比其他任何事情都糟糕。所以我認為他們在避免它。

I think as we saw that happening, now the receptivity and the demand that said, "Hey, I really need that $180,000 to bridge inflation, to be able to bridge the cost of capital to grow my business." And so I think we had those 2 things, us being more precise in terms of our messaging and getting our sales and our education teams out there. And then second, I think there were some macro pressures on small business owners that created that tailwind that exceeded what we expected.

我認為當我們看到這種情況發生時，現在的接受度和需求說，“嘿，我真的需要那 180,000 美元來彌合通貨膨脹，以便能夠彌合資本成本以發展我的業務。”所以我認為我們有這兩件事，我們在信息傳遞方面更加精確，讓我們的銷售和教育團隊在那裡。其次，我認為小企業主面臨一些宏觀壓力，創造了超出我們預期的順風。

That's really helpful color. And then just last thing for me is, Efrain, you talked about that at least at the initial planning stages, you think margins next year can expand some. If I reflect back on where you've talked about your margin targets in the past, we were kind of getting towards the upper end of that. Are we at a stage we can start completing that maybe the margin structure can even move above what you've talked about in the past? Or what would have to happen for that to be the case?

那是非常有用的顏色。然後對我來說最後一件事是，Efrain，你至少在最初的規劃階段談到了這一點，你認為明年的利潤率可以擴大一些。如果我回想一下你過去談到你的利潤率目標的地方，我們有點接近那個上限。我們是否處於可以開始完成的階段，也許保證金結構甚至可以超過您過去所說的？或者必鬚髮生什麼情況？

That's a good question, James. So -- and that's the benefit of listening to what I've said over a period of time. If you would have said to me persistently, we could be above 40%. And I would have urged caution because I didn't know whether we had all of the set of initiatives that could drive us there.

這是個好問題，詹姆斯。所以——這就是傾聽我在一段時間內所說的話的好處。如果你堅持對我說，我們可以超過 40%。而且我會敦促謹慎，因為我不知道我們是否擁有可以推動我們實現目標的所有舉措。

The short answer to that is I don't have a great answer. I have a sense of when we're probably getting closer to this feeling, I do think that you're right in saying that it's been reset a bit, and it's been reset a bit because of technology. So technology keeps giving us opportunities to automate things that we -- if you would have said 7 years ago, is that a chatbot could be as good or better than in answering 275 questions that are 90% of what clients want to know, I would have said -- I don't know about that. And short answer now is -- that number is not 275, it's probably 375 or 400 questions.

對此的簡短回答是我沒有很好的答案。我知道我們什麼時候可能會更接近這種感覺，我確實認為你說它已經被重置了一點是正確的，而且由於技術的原因它已經被重置了一點。因此，技術不斷為我們提供自動化的機會——如果您在 7 年前會說，聊天機器人可以比回答 275 個問題（佔客戶想知道的 90%）一樣好或更好，我會已經說過——我不知道。現在簡短的回答是——這個數字不是 275，可能是 375 或 400 個問題。

So short answer is technology is going to set the limit especially in the tech services business. And so I think we probably have developed some more headroom with some of the actions that we have taken. And it's not just pure technology, but I think we wanted to become more automated efficient. A lot of the initiatives that John started years ago have paid these dividends.

簡短的回答是技術將設置限制，尤其是在技術服務業務中。因此，我認為我們可能已經通過採取的一些行動開發了更多空間。這不僅僅是純技術，而且我認為我們希望變得更加自動化和高效。約翰多年前開始的許多舉措都帶來了這些紅利。

Our last question will come from Andrew Polkowitz with JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Andrew Polkowitz。

Just wanted to -- just wanted to ask, you mentioned earlier that it was a [hot], fairly competitive selling season. So I just wanted to ask if you could share where that competition is coming from, whether it's new or entrance usual suspects like the regional and if there is anything to call out different from history regarding balance of trade?

只是想——只是想問一下，你之前提到這是一個[火爆]、競爭相當激烈的銷售季節。所以我只想問你是否可以分享競爭的來源，它是新的還是像區域性的進入通常的嫌疑人，以及在貿易平衡方面是否有什麼與歷史不同的地方？

I wouldn't say any new entrants, it's the same suspects. I think what we found was just everyone was more aggressive in trying to go after and grab market share, and I'm very proud of our sales team for really outcompeting -- the competitive metrics were very strong for the quarter and I think in a very aggressive market. And I would say every one of our market segments saw that. And I think that's going to continue. Look, I think very proud of where we are and where we're positioned.

我不會說任何新進入者，都是同樣的嫌疑人。我認為我們發現每個人都更加積極地試圖追求並搶占市場份額，我為我們的銷售團隊真正勝過競爭而感到自豪——本季度的競爭指標非常強勁，我認為非常激進的市場。我想說我們的每個細分市場都看到了這一點。我認為這將繼續下去。看，我為我們所處的位置和所處的位置感到非常自豪。

I'm sure a lot of our smaller competitors and those that are maybe a little more focused in niches that aren't doing as well as the traditional small business market is doing. We'll maybe get more aggressive, but I feel good about where our value proposition is. And I think what we're finding is, as I said, I think our strategic partners, our clients, and I think prospects are beginning to put a premium on, hey, I want to be somewhere, what they are doing, they're doing it right and they're stable, and they're going to be able to have the financial capability to continue to invest in their products and services over the long term. And so I think there may be a little less chasing shiny objects as we go forward.

我敢肯定，我們的許多較小的競爭對手以及那些可能更專注於利基市場的競爭對手的表現不如傳統的小型企業市場。我們可能會變得更具侵略性，但我對我們的價值主張感到滿意。我認為我們發現的是，正如我所說，我認為我們的戰略合作夥伴、我們的客戶，我認為潛在客戶開始重視，嘿，我想去某個地方，他們在做什麼，他們”如果他們做對了，他們就會穩定，他們將有能力繼續長期投資於他們的產品和服務。因此，我認為隨著我們的前進，追逐閃亮物體的情況可能會有所減少。

Got it. And I just had 1 follow-up on op margins. I mean for the quarter, this quarter, it came out a little bit ahead of the 44% to 43% you laid out 3 months ago. Just wanted to ask if there is anything that came out better than you expected 3 months ago relating to the expense line?

知道了。我剛剛對 op 利潤率進行了 1 次跟進。我的意思是，對於本季度，本季度，它比您 3 個月前製定的 44% 到 43% 略有領先。只是想問一下關於費用線是否有比您 3 個月前預期的更好的結果？

Well, I think revenue, obviously, was a little bit higher than we expected, a lot of that flow-through and drove higher margins and our expenses were in line with maybe a little bit better than we anticipated. The combination of that is really what drove better margin performance in the quarter.

好吧，我認為收入顯然比我們預期的要高一點，大量的流量並推動了更高的利潤率，我們的支出符合我們的預期，可能比我們預期的要好一點。這些因素的結合確實推動了本季度更好的利潤率表現。

At this time, I have no further questions in queue. I'll turn the call back over to John Gibson for any additional or closing remarks.

目前，我沒有其他問題要排隊了。我會將電話轉回給 John Gibson，以徵求任何補充意見或結束意見。

Well, thank you very much, Todd. I appreciate it. At this point, we'll close the call. If you're interested in a replay of the webcast, it will be archived for approximately [90] days on our website. I want to thank everybody for your interest in Paychex. And everybody have a great day.

好吧，非常感謝你，托德。我很感激。在這一點上，我們將結束通話。如果您對網絡廣播的重播感興趣，它會在我們的網站上存檔大約 [90] 天。我要感謝大家對 Paychex 的興趣。每個人都有美好的一天。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接。