沛齊 (PAYX) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Paychex Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's call will be recorded, and I will be standing by if you should need any assistance. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Mr. John Gibson. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加今天的Paychex第三季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）請注意，本次電話會議將會被錄音，如果您需要任何協助，請隨時與我聯絡。現在，我很高興將會議交給約翰·吉布森先生。請您發言，先生。

Thank you, Todd. Thank you, everyone, for joining us for our discussion of the Paychex Third Quarter Fiscal Year '23 earnings release. Joining me today is Efrain Rivera, our Chief Financial Officer. This morning, before the market opened, we released our financial results for the third quarter ending February 28. You can access our earnings release on our Investor Relations website. Our Form 10-Q will be filed with the SEC within the next day.

謝謝托德。感謝各位參加我們關於Paychex 2023財年第三季財報的討論。今天與我一同出席的是我們的財務長埃弗雷恩·裡維拉。今天上午，在股市開盤前，我們發布了截至2月28日的第三季財務表現。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上查看這份財報。我們的10-Q表格將於明天提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）。

This teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on our website for approximately 90 days. I'm going to start the call today with an update on the business highlights and then Efrain will review our financial results and outlook for fiscal year '23. We'll then open it up for any of your questions.

本次電話會議將透過網路直播，並將存檔於我們的網站上，保留約90天。今天，我將首先報告業務亮點，然後Efrain將回顧我們的財務表現以及2023財年的展望。之後，我們將開放提問環節，歡迎各位提問。

As you saw in our press release, we delivered solid financial results for the third quarter with total revenue of 8% and adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of 12%. Thanks to the outstanding efforts of our employees, we completed a successful selling and calendar year-end season with strong sales volumes and revenue retention for the quarter.

如您在新聞稿中所見，我們第三季財務業績穩健，總營收成長8%，調整後攤薄每股收益成長12%。感謝全體員工的傑出努力，我們成功完成了銷售旺季和年末業績，本季銷售和收入均保持強勁。

We continue to see a stable macro environment and demand for our solutions. Our unique value proposition is clearly resonating in the market. Small and midsized businesses continue to show remarkable resilience as seen in our [job] index in the last 2 months as they contain was a constantly changing labor market, inflation, increasing regulations and rising interest rates.

我們持續看到宏觀環境穩定，市場對我們解決方案的需求也保持強勁。我們獨特的價值主張在市場上引起了廣泛共鳴。正如過去兩個月的就業指數所示，中小企業展現出了卓越的韌性，即便麵臨勞動市場不斷變化、通貨膨脹、監管日益嚴格以及利率上升等挑戰。

Before we get into the third quarter results, I want to take a minute to address the recent volatility in the U.S. banking market as a result of 2 highly publicized bank closings. We have no cash, restricted cash and investments deposited within Silicon Valley Bank or Signature Bank, and we've met all client fund obligations related to employee payment services and remittances to applicable tax or regulatory agencies.

在介紹第三季業績之前，我想先花一點時間談談近期美國銀行業因兩家備受矚目的銀行倒閉事件而出現的波動。我們目前在矽谷銀行和Signature銀行均無現金、受限現金及投資存款，並且已履行所有與員工薪酬服務以及向相關稅務或監管機構匯款相關的客戶資金義務。

We continue to monitor this situation and believe that our existing client funds held cash, cash equivalents and investment balances are more than sufficient to meet all client fund obligations. We remain ready as we were when the crisis was unfolding to help businesses and their employees whose payroll processing or direct deposits may have been impacted by these bank closures.

我們持續專注於事態發展，並相信我們現有的客戶資金（包括現金、現金等價物和投資餘額）足以履行所有客戶資金義務。我們將一如危機爆發之初那樣，隨時準備幫助那些因銀行關閉而導致工資發放或直接存款受到影響的企業及其員工。

Paychex has a long-standing track record for being a stable place for customers, employees and investors during all types of macroeconomic situations and crisis, and we demonstrated that once again. The selling season was positive in terms of both revenue and volumes in a very highly competitive environment. In particular, demand has remained strong for our HR outsourcing solutions though as we've reported in prior quarters, we continue to see a trend of client shifting preferences for our ASO model over the PEO model. In the third quarter, we saw revenue retention remaining near record levels and normalization of uncontrollable losses at the very low end of the market.

Paychex長期以來在各種宏觀經濟情勢和危機中都保持著對客戶、員工和投資者的穩定支持，而我們再次證明了這一點。在競爭異常激烈的市場環境下，銷售季的收入和銷售量均實現了積極成長。尤其值得一提的是，儘管我們先前幾季報告顯示，客戶對ASO模式的偏好正在從PEO模式轉向ASO模式，但市場對我們人力資源外包解決方案的需求仍然強勁。第三季度，我們的收入留存率維持在接近歷史最高水平，而低端市場的不可控制損失也已恢復正常。

The focus and investment we continue to put in our high-value clients is making the difference in the customer experience. In addition, the advisory assistance we provide our clients is critical in these challenging times. Our retention for our HR outsourcing businesses, both ASO and PEO stand at an all-time record high year-to-date. PEO and Insurance Solutions continues to show lower health insurance attachment and enrollment inside those clients that are attaching. This is specifically impacting our PEO in the Florida market and the softer rates for workers' compensation insurance continue to impact the property and casualty part of our insurance agency.

我們持續專注於高價值客戶並加大投入，這正在顯著提升客戶體驗。此外，在當前充滿挑戰的時期，我們為客戶提供的諮詢服務至關重要。今年迄今為止，我們的人力資源外包業務（包括ASO和PEO）的客戶留存率創歷史新高。在 PEO和保險解決方案業務中，客戶的健康保險附加率和投保率持續下降。這尤其影響了我們在佛羅裡達州的PEO業務，而工傷賠償保險費率的走低也持續影響著我們保險代理機構的財產和意外保險業務。

We expect these trends to continue early into the next fiscal year and normalize as the year progresses. Paychex is uniquely positioned with a continuum of solutions designed to help businesses in any macro environment. We help them recruit and train employees gain access to capital and provide valuable benefit packages such as insurance and retirement. Through our innovative technology, compliance and HR expertise, we are here to help businesses drive efficiency within their HR processes, which therefore frees up valuable time for them to focus on growing the business.

我們預計這些趨勢將在下一財年初期持續，並隨著時間的推移逐漸趨於正常。 Paychex 擁有獨特的優勢，提供一系列解決方案，旨在幫助企業應對各種宏觀環境。我們幫助企業招募和培訓員工，獲取資金，並提供諸如保險和退休金等優厚的福利待遇。憑藉我們創新的技術、合規性和人力資源方面的專業知識，我們致力於幫助企業提高人力資源流程的效率，從而節省寶貴的時間，使其專注於業務成長。

Competing for and retaining employees remains a challenge for today's workforce. And I want to commend Congress and the President for signing the recent SECURE Act 2.0, which will introduce a range of new opportunities for businesses looking to introduce a retirement benefit and make their employee value proposition more competitive.

如今，企業在吸引和留住員工方面仍面臨挑戰。我謹此讚揚國會和總統簽署了近期通過的《安全退休法案2.0》（SECURE Act 2.0），該法案將為希望引入退休福利並提升員工價值主張競爭力的企業帶來一系列新的機會。

We have begun to launch campaigns to educate the market on the SECURE Act 2 and continue to position Paychex as the industry leader in retirement plans that we are. We are working on strategies to leverage our strength in this market and capitalize on this opportunity in the years ahead.

我們已開始進行宣傳活動，向市場普及《安全退休法案2》(SECURE Act 2)的相關知識，並持續鞏固Paychex作為退休計畫產業領導者的地位。我們正在製定策略，以充分發揮我們在該市場的優勢，並在未來幾年內把握這一機會。

As higher interest rates and disruptions in the banking system have both impacted the cost and access of capital for many small and midsized businesses, we have fully embraced this challenge to help them out by proactively assisting our clients and prospects with obtaining financial assistance available to them through nontraditional financial partnerships and through government programs such as PPP and the ERTC program. We continue to see strong demand for our full-service ERTC solution.

由於利率上升和銀行體系動盪都影響了許多中小企業的融資成本和管道，我們積極應對這一挑戰，主動協助客戶和潛在客戶透過非傳統金融合作關係以及政府專案（例如PPP和ERTC專案）獲得可用的資金援助。我們持續看到市場對我們全方位ERTC解決方案的強勁需求。

Many of the businesses we've helped are leveraging their new financial flexibility to reinvest in new solutions, such as a retirement plan, or one of our integrated HCM technologies. Recently, our ERTC service was recognized with a Stevie Award for helping businesses obtain critical financial support.

我們幫助過的許多企業正在利用其新增的財務靈活性，將資金重新投入到新的解決方案中，例如退休計劃或我們的一體化人力資本管理 (HCM) 技術。最近，我們的員工退休金轉移 (ERTC) 服務榮獲史蒂夫獎，以表彰其幫助企業獲得關鍵財務支持。

In uncertain times, people look for stable, trusted advisers to help them succeed. I am proud that we have recently been recognized as one of the most admired, one of the most ethical and one of the most innovative companies by several prominent and respected brands. We remain one of Fortune's most Admired Companies in 2023 and for the 15th time, we were named among one of the most ethical companies in the world by Ethisphere. This is a select group of companies that show exceptional commitment to ethical operations, compliance performance and governance and risk practices, including strong commitments to ESG and diversity, equity and inclusion.

在充滿不確定性的時代，人們尋求穩定可靠的顧問來幫助他們成功。我非常自豪地宣布，我們近期榮獲多家知名權威機構的認可，被評為最受尊敬、最具道德操守和最具創新力的公司之一。我們繼續名列《財星》雜誌2023年最受尊敬公司榜單，並第15次被Ethisphere評為全球最具道德操守公司之一。該獎項旨在表彰那些在道德營運、合規績效、公司治理和風險管理方面展現卓越承諾的公司，包括對環境、社會和治理（ESG）以及多元化、公平性和包容性（FEE）的堅定承諾。

And today, we are announcing that we have been named to Fortune's list of America's most innovative companies for 2023 due to the innovation we've shown in our products, processes and culture. These awards are the result of the dedication of our 16,000-plus employees who daily are supporting our clients and helping them succeed and doing business the right way every day.

今天，我們很榮幸地宣布，憑藉在產品、流程和企業文化方面展現出的創新精神，我們榮登《財富》雜誌2023年美國最具創新力公司榜單。這些榮譽歸功於我們超過16,000名員工的辛勤付出，他們每天都在為客戶提供支持，幫助他們取得成功，並始終堅持以正確的方式開展業務。

Very proud of the team, and I'm very proud of Paychex. There's no question that we are a well-managed and stable market leader that people can depend on. We have a long-standing track record of being there for our customers when they need us most, and we continue to be well positioned to help them through the HR challenges they are facing and whatever comes their way in the future.

我為團隊感到非常自豪，也為Paychex感到非常自豪。毫無疑問，我們是一家管理完善、穩健發展的市場領導者，值得信賴。我們始終在客戶最需要我們的時候提供支持，並擁有良好的口碑。我們將繼續保持優勢，幫助他們應對當前面臨的人力資源挑戰，以及未來可能遇到的任何挑戰。

Now I'll turn it over to Efrain who will take you through our financial results for the third quarter.

現在我將把發言權交給埃弗雷恩，他將為大家介紹我們第三季的財務表現。

Thanks, John. Good morning to everyone on the call. I'd like to remind you the customary things I remind you that during these conversations, we're going to talk about forward-looking statements. Items like EBITDA, non-GAAP measures, please refer to our press release for more information on these topics. I'll start by providing some of the key points for the quarter and finish up with a review of our fiscal 2023 outlook.

謝謝約翰。各位早安。我想提醒大家一些慣例事項：在接下來的討論中，我們將涉及前瞻性陳述，例如 EBITDA、非 GAAP 指標等。有關這些主題的更多信息，請參閱我們的新聞稿。我將首先介紹本季的一些關鍵要點，最後回顧一下我們 2023 財年的展望。

Total revenue for the quarter, as you saw, grew 8% to $1.4 billion. Total service revenue increased 7% to $1.3 billion. Obviously, we're benefiting from increase in interest rates. Management Solutions revenue increased 7% to $1 billion, driven by additional product attachment, HR ancillary services. It's largely what we've discussed previously, our ERTC product and price realization, we continue to see strong attachment of our HR solutions, retirement and time and attendance products.

如您所見，本季總營收成長8%，達到14億美元。服務總收入成長7%，達到13億美元。顯然，我們受益於利率上升。管理解決方案營收成長7%，達到10億美元，主要得益於新增產品附加服務和人力資源輔助服務。正如我們之前討論過的，我們的ERTC產品及其定價策略，以及人力資源解決方案、退休和考勤產品的強勁銷售勢頭，都推動了這一增長。

Demand for our ERTC service remains strong and contributed approximately 1% to revenue growth in the quarter. Demand for this product along with our internal execution, have continued to exceed our expectations, while ERTC has been a tailwind, and we expect demand to continue into fiscal year '24. It will eventually become -- will eventually moderate and become a headwind as we progress through next year -- next fiscal year.

市場對我們ERTC服務的需求依然強勁，本季貢獻了約1%的營收成長。該產品的需求以及我們內部的執行力持續超出預期，ERTC一直是推動業務成長的利多因素，我們預計這種需求將持續到2024財年。但隨著我們進入下一個財年，這種需求最終會減弱，並轉變為不利因素。

Beyond Insurance Solutions revenue increased 6% to $321 million, driven by higher revenue per client and growth in average worksite employees. The rate of growth was impacted by factors previously discussed, including lower medical plan sales and participant volumes, along with the mix shift to ASO as John called out. We expect these trends to normalize as we progress through fiscal 2020, meaning a little bit more of a balance between PEO and ASO.

Beyond Insurance Solutions 的營收成長了 6%，達到 3.21 億美元，主要得益於每位客戶收入的提高以及工作場所平均員工人數的成長。成長率受到先前討論過的因素的影響，包括醫療計劃銷售額和參保人數的下降，以及正如 John 所指出的，業務結構向 ASO 的轉變。我們預計隨著 2020 財年的推進，這些趨勢將趨於正常化，這意味著 PEO 和 ASO 之間的平衡將更加明顯。

Interest on funds held for clients increased significantly to $35 million in the quarter, primarily due, as you know, to higher average interest rates. Total expenses were up 8% to $769 million. Expense growth was largely attributable to higher headcount, wage rates in general course to support growth in our business. Op income increased 9% to $612 million, with an operating margin of 44.3%, a slight expansion over the prior year period.

本季客戶資金利息收入顯著增長至3500萬美元，主要原因是平均利率上升，如您所知。總支出成長8%至7.69億美元。支出成長主要歸因於員工人數增加以及為支持業務成長而普遍提高的薪資水準。營業收入成長9%至6.12億美元，營業利益率為44.3%，較上年同期略有成長。

Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 24.3% compared to 22.3% in the prior year period. The prior year period included a higher volume of stock-based comp -- and stock-based comp payments and the recognition of a tax credit related to our development of client-facing software that generated the difference in rates.

本季實際稅率為24.3%，去年同期為22.3%。去年同期包含更高額的股權激勵和股權激勵支付，以及與開發面向客戶的軟體相關的稅收抵免，這些因素導致了稅率的差異。

Net income increased 9% to $467 million and diluted earnings per share increased 8% to $1.29 per share. Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 12% for the quarter to $1.29 per share. Let me quickly summarize the results for the first 9 months of the fiscal year. Performance has been strong. Total service revenue increased 8% to $3.7 billion, and total revenue was up 9% to $3.8 billion. Management Solutions up 9% to $2.8 billion. PEO and Insurance Solutions up 6% to $877 million.

淨利成長9%至4.67億美元，稀釋後每股盈餘成長8%至1.29美元。經調整後的稀釋後每股盈餘本季成長12%至1.29美元。以下我將簡要總結本財年前九個月的業績。業績表現強勁。服務總收入成長8%至37億美元，總收入成長9%至38億美元。管理解決方案收入成長9%至28億美元。專業雇主組織（PEO）和保險解決方案收入成長6%至8.77億美元。

Op income increased 9% with a margin of 41.8%. Adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share both increased 12% to $1.2 billion and $3.31 per share. Our financial position remained strong as you can see, with cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments of more than $1.6 billion. Total borrowings of approximately $808 million as of February 28, 2023. Cash flow from operations, again, solid for the first 9 months was at $1.3 billion and with an increase from priority driven by higher net income and changes in working capital.

營業利益成長9%，利潤率為41.8%。調整後淨利和調整後稀釋每股收益均成長12%，分別達到12億美元和3.31美元。如您所見，我們的財務狀況依然穩健，現金、受限現金和公司總投資超過16億美元。截至2023年2月28日，總借款約8.08億美元。前9個月的營運活動現金流依然強勁，達到13億美元，優先支出部分的成長主要得益於淨利成長和營運資本的變化。

We've had our quarterly dividends at $0.79 per share for a total of $854 million during the 9 months of fiscal 2023 year, 12-month rolling return on equity was the stellar superb for 47%.

在 2023 財年的前 9 個月中，我們每季派發的股息為每股 0.79 美元，總計 8.54 億美元，12 個月滾動股本回報率高達 47%，表現出色。

Now let me turn to our guidance. For the current fiscal year ending May 31, 2023. Our current outlook incorporates our results for the first 9 months in our view of the evolving macroeconomic environment. We have raised guidance on certain measures based on performance this past quarter, updated guidance is as follows: Management Solutions revenue now expected to grow slightly above 8%. We previously guided to a range of 7% to 8%. PEO and Insurance Solutions outlook is unchanged at growth in the range of 5% to 7%, although we anticipate it to be towards the lower end of the range. We expect Q4 PEO and Insurance Solutions growth to be below 5% due to the factors that we've talked about through much of the year.

現在，我想談談我們的業績展望。本財年截至2023年5月31日。我們目前的展望包含了前9個月的業績以及我們對不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境的判斷。基於上個季度的業績表現，我們上調了部分指標的業績展望，更新後的展望如下：管理解決方案營收預計將略高於8%的成長。我們之前的預期為7%至8%。 PEO和保險解決方案的業績展望維持不變，仍為5%至7%的成長區間，但我們預期實際成長率會更接近該區間的下限。由於我們今年大部分時間都在討論的因素，我們預計第四季度PEO和保險解決方案的成長率將低於5%。

Interest on funds held for clients is expected to be in the range of $100 million to $105 million. Total revenue is expected to grow approximately 8%. Other income and expense net is now expected to be income of $10 million to $15 million, obviously due to higher interest rates. Remember, we met interest income there with our expense on the debt. Adjusted diluted earnings per share is now expected to grow in the range of 13% to 14%. We previously guided to growth of 12% to 14%. So we tightened the range, obviously, 1 quarter left.

預計客戶資金利息收入將在1億美元至1.05億美元之間。總收入預計將成長約8%。其他收入和支出淨額預計為1000萬美元至1500萬美元，顯然是由於利率上升所致。需要注意的是，我們已將利息收入計入債務支出。經調整後的稀釋每股收益預計將成長13%至14%。我們先前的預期為成長12%至14%。因此，我們縮小了預期範圍，畢竟還有一個季度的時間。

Guidance for margins and effective tax rates are unchanged, but we do anticipate being on the higher end of the range for operating margin and the lower end of the range for effective tax rate. We currently are in the middle of our annual budget process and are working on expectations for next fiscal year. As you know, this is challenging for a number of different reasons, not the least of which are expected outcomes in terms of interest rates and also macroeconomic environment. We'll provide final guidance for fiscal 2024 during fiscal 2023's fourth quarter earnings call in June.

利潤率和實際稅率的預期保持不變，但我們預期營業利潤率將處於預期範圍的較高水平，而實際稅率將處於預期範圍的較低水平。我們目前正在進行年度預算編制工作，並正在製定下一財政年度的預期。如您所知，由於許多原因，這項工作充滿挑戰，其中最重要的是利率走勢和宏觀經濟環境的預期。我們將在6月舉行的2023財年第四季財報電話會議上提供2024財年的最終業績指引。

However, let me share some of our preliminary thought process around fiscal 2024. On a preliminary basis, we believe that the exit rate in the fourth quarter is a decent approximation for total revenue growth for 2024. This should result somewhere in the range of 6% to 7%. And again, we got more to do there, but just giving you what our thought process is at the moment. And it's heavily dependent on what we think will happen with interest rates during the year. And at this point, our assumptions are conservative.

不過，我想先分享我們對2024財年的初步想像。初步來看，我們認為第四季的成長率可以較為準確反映2024年的總收入成長率，預計成長率在6%到7%之間。當然，我們還有很多工作要做，但目前我的想法是這樣的。這很大程度取決於我們對年內利率走勢的預測。目前，我們的假設比較保守。

Management Solutions is expected to be lower as a result of moderating ERTC revenues. We called that out last year didn't happen. It actually went the other way. We do think it's going to happen next year. And then PEO and Insurance revenue growth is expected to trend higher as we progress through the year with moderation in some of the headwinds we have experienced this year primarily around insurance attachment and also, as we called out mix shift to ASO. We remain committed to improving margins and we anticipate that operating margin will expand at this stage in the range of 25 to 50 basis points for fiscal 2024.

由於ERTC收入放緩，管理解決方案業務預計會下降。我們去年就預測過這種情況，但結果卻恰恰相反。我們認為明年這種情況將會出現。隨著我們今年遇到的一些不利因素（主要集中在保險附加方面）以及我們之前提到的向ASO的業務結構轉變，PEO和保險業務的收入成長預計將會隨著時間的推移而走高。我們將繼續致力於提高利潤率，並預計2024財年營業利潤率將提高25至50個基點。

Of course, all of this is subject to our current assumptions, which can change, especially if there are significant changes to the macro environment, which at this stage, we are not seeing. I'll refer you to our investor slides on our website for more information. And now let me turn the call back over to John.

當然，所有這些都基於我們目前的假設，而這些假設可能會改變，尤其是在宏觀環境發生重大變化的情況下，但就目前而言，我們尚未看到這種情況。更多信息，請參閱我們網站上的投資者演示文稿。現在，我把電話轉回給約翰。

Thank you, Efrain. With stats now being complete, Todd will open up the call for any questions people have.

謝謝你，埃弗雷恩。現在統計數據已經完成，托德將開放提問環節，回答大家的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh。

Congratulations. Just really, really strong results here. I don't know, John or Efrain, maybe -- and I know it's preliminary, Efrain, but the 2024 looks pretty similar to '23, and there's a lot of crosscurrents from a macro perspective. And you folks tend to be pretty conservative. Maybe help us understand some of the puts and takes? Is it maybe there's a little bit more pricing and just any base underlying assumptions around unemployment because, again, just really, really outcome. I'm just trying to understand maybe that a little bit more.

恭喜！結果真的非常非常出色。約翰和埃弗雷恩，我不知道你們的看法——我知道這只是初步分析，埃弗雷恩，但2024年的情況看起來和2023年非常相似，而且從宏觀角度來看，有很多不確定因素。你們的預測通常比較保守。能不能幫我們分析一下你們的判斷？是因為市場對失業率的預期存在一些定價偏差，或者說，失業率的基本假設有些偏差？畢竟，最終結果真的非常非常令人擔憂。我只是想更深入地了解一下。

Yes. Let me -- I'll let John talk a little bit more to kind of what our thinking is from a macro perspective. But Kevin, just to kind of address some of the higher level assumptions that go into the plan. I called out the fact that ERTC is not going to be the headwind -- I'm sorry, the tailwind that it was this year. We called that out last year, but definitely going to happen next year or I wouldn't say definitely. I will say we have a very high degree of belief that we won't see it. However, you're going to see that more in the second half of the year than the first half of the year.

是的。讓我——我讓約翰再多談談我們從宏觀角度出發的思考。凱文，我先簡單說說這個計畫中一些比較宏觀的假設。我之前提到過，ERTC（經濟復甦訓練中心）不會像今年那樣成為阻礙——抱歉，應該是順風。我們去年就說過這一點，但明年肯定會發生，或者說，我不會說「肯定」。我只能說，我們非常有信心它不會發生。不過，你會在下半年比上半年更明顯地感受到它的影響。

So that's the first thing I'd say. If we look back at where we started this year, we're getting a nice macro uplift from employment as we started the year. That seems to have run its course. It is not going the other way. But at this stage, what we're seeing is that there's been a pretty significant moderation in terms of employee adds and that's happened as we progress through the year. So those 2 things are -- will become headwinds as we go through the year.

這是我想說的第一點。回顧今年年初，就業市場出現了一個不錯的宏觀成長。但現在看來，這種成長動能似乎已經過去，並沒有出現逆轉的跡象。然而，就目前而言，我們看到的是新增員工數量已經顯著放緩，而且這種情況一直持續到年底。因此，這兩點——它們將成為我們今年面臨的不利因素。

Interest rates I called out. The first half of the year, I think we've got some sense of where we are. So where we're at, the market does too, what is really hard to understand is what happens in the second half of the year and whether we start going in reverse on interest rates. We're taking steps to position the portfolio to be able to deal with that. That's what happens. But no one knows there. Now that's all the stuff that's headwind. No positives.

我之前提到過利率問題。我覺得我們對上半年的情況已經有了大致的了解。市場也明白這一點，真正難以預測的是下半年會發生什麼，以及利率是否會開始下降。我們正在採取措施調整投資組合，以應對這種情況。這就是未來發展趨勢。但誰也無法預知。以上都是不利因素，沒有任何利好。

We think HR continues to be strong. We think, as John pointed out, we think retirement continues to be strong, we think that HCM continues to proceed well. We think PEO, which has been a little bit of a tailwind to growth this year, it does do better next year. The Insurance business that we call out PEO, a lot of the moderation on the growth rate in PEO insurance coming from insurance, we think that starts to improve as we go into next year. And then we have the normal level of cost discipline in the business that drives the results that we're anticipating in 2024. So that's a broad overview of, Kevin, numbers we've put together. I'll let John talk to macro and any other parts of the business we need to call out.

我們認為人力資源業務依然強勁。正如約翰所指出的，我們認為退休業務也依然強勁，人力資本管理（HCM）業務也持續穩定發展。我們認為專業雇主組織（PEO）業務今年對成長起到了一定的推動作用，明年預計會表現得更好。我們提到的PEO保險業務，其成長率受到保險業務本身的抑制，我們認為這種情況會在明年開始好轉。此外，公司正常的成本控制水準也將推動我們實現2024年業績的預期。凱文，以上就是我們彙整的一些資料概覽。接下來，我會讓約翰來談談宏觀層面以及我們需要重點關注的其他業務領域。

Yes. Yes. Kevin, keep in mind that we've certainly seen a reference and really expected to see some moderation. I mean, we don't expect another 4.5 basis points increase in interest rates that we don't expect the type of hiring that we saw from the -- it's hard to believe that the great resignation was just last year, a year away. So certainly, we've had the benefit of staffing up. But we're not seeing any contraction moderation.

是的，是的。凱文，請記住，我們確實看到了一些跡象，也確實預期會出現一些緩和。我的意思是，我們並不預期利率會再上漲4.5個基點，也不預期會出現像去年那樣的大規模招聘——很難相信大規模辭職潮就在去年，僅僅一年之後。所以，我們當然受益於人員補充。但我們並沒有看到任何經濟收縮放緩的跡象。

And in fact, if you look at our job index, which has been a great indicator of kind of small business health and what we've seen in both January and February that we've reported, it's actually an increase in the index. And we really have not seen that through all of this fiscal year. So these are the really first 2 months where we've seen an increase in the index and also saw some moderation in wage inflation as well.

事實上，如果你看一下我們的就業指數，它一直是衡量小型企業健康狀況的重要指標。我們公佈的1月和2月的數據顯示，該指數實際上有所上升。而這種情況在本財年之前從未出現過。因此，這兩個月是該指數首次上升，同時薪資通膨也出現一定程度的緩和。

So we're certainly not seeing it. We haven't reported March yet, but I can tell you we continue not to seeing things there. Demand for our products, the HR products, the online products that we're offering, HCM products of the 401(k), Efrain, is really, really strong. I mean, we had a strong sales quarter in the second quarter and the third quarter was actually better than that even on a relative basis quarter-to-quarter from prior periods.

所以，我們目前還沒有看到任何異常情況。我們還沒有公佈三月的業績，但我可以告訴大家，我們仍然沒有看到任何異常情況。市場對我們產品的需求非常強勁，包括人力資源產品、我們提供的線上產品、401(k)計畫的人力資本管理產品以及Efrain平台。我的意思是，我們第二季的銷售額表現強勁，而第三季甚至比第二季更好，即使與前幾季相比也是如此。

So we're seeing good demand in what I would say, moderation stabilization. We're certainly closely watching all of the indicators, but we're not seeing things. We've got a very -- the other thing I would point out on a macro basis, there's a lot of noise in the system. And I think it's important to say we have a very diverse client base. And I think it's fair to say, Paychex, we're one of the main street small and midsized business company. We're not that Silicon Valley. We're not focused on 1 particular vertical or we're not heavily weighted here or there.

所以，我們看到市場需求良好，可以說是趨於穩定。我們當然會密切注意所有指標，但目前還沒有發現任何異常情況。另外，從宏觀層面來看，市場噪音很大。我認為有必要強調的是，我們的客戶群非常多元化。 Paychex 是一家面向大眾的中小型企業公司，這一點毋庸置疑。我們並非矽谷巨頭，我們不專注於某個特定的垂直領域，也沒有在某個方面投入過多資源。

And so we tend to represent what's going on in Main Street. And I don't think Main Street small business owners have been reckless in hiring or reckless in spending or able to spend more than they make. And so again, they struggle through this and we've been helping them to get through it. So our retention has been strong as well and particularly where accounts in our HR advisory products, both PEO and ASO, again, at record levels.

因此，我們往往能反映出一般民眾的真實情況。我認為一般民眾中的小企業主在招募或支出方面並沒有魯莽行事，也沒有入不敷出。所以，他們一直在努力渡過難關，而我們也一直在幫助他們。因此，我們的客戶留存率也一直很高，尤其是我們人力資源諮詢產品（包括PEO和ASO）的客戶，再次創下了歷史新高。

So we have a good degree of confidence that our value proposition is resonating with our current clients. We still think there's a ton of opportunity inside our client base to provide them further assistance. And while we've seen until towards ASO versus PEO this year, I always look at it this way. Those ASO clients are Paychex clients and we'll be talking to them again next year about whether or not it's the right time and whether or not you've got the right benefits offering that now meets their needs, and we're certainly doing a lot of work there to try to make sure we've got the right continuum of insurance products to meet the market conditions for small businesses today.

因此，我們相當有信心，我們的價值主張能夠引起現有客戶的共鳴。我們仍然認為，在現有客戶群中，我們還有巨大的機會為他們提供進一步的幫助。雖然今年我們看到ASO（業務組織服務）相對於PEO（專業雇主組織）的趨勢有所增強，但我始終這樣看待這個問題：這些ASO客戶也是Paychex的客戶，明年我們會再次與他們探討，現在是否是合適的時機，以及我們是否擁有能夠滿足他們當前需求的合適福利方案。我們當然正在為此投入大量精力，以確保我們擁有合適的保險產品組合，以滿足當今小型企業的市場需求。

So I feel like, look, this labor challenge that we have is not going to go away. And I don't think the complexities of hiring people is going to go away. And I think that bodes well for how we've positioned ourselves, both from an HCM perspective, our technology is driving efficiencies and it's helping people manage remote workers. It's helping them attract workers and quite frankly, our HR advisory services are paying big dividends. So I hope that gives you some color on what we're seeing.

所以我覺得，我們面臨的勞動挑戰不會消失。招募的複雜性也不會消失。我認為這對我們目前的定位很有利，無論從人力資本管理（HCM）的角度來看，我們的技術都在提高效率，幫助企業管理遠距員工，幫助他們吸引人才，坦白說，我們的人力資源諮詢服務也帶來了豐厚的回報。希望這些能讓您對我們目前的情況有所了解。

Our next question comes from David Togut with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Togut。

Just to dig into fiscal '24 guidance a bit more. Could you walk through some of the underlying drivers of Management Solutions revenue growth for next year in a little greater depth. And in particular, if you could let's say, start with the critical year-end selling season, which you've just gone through, you've indicated it was strong. If you could kind of walk through kind of what parts of the bookings were particularly strong within your client base, small end like SurePayroll versus kind of more of the core payroll processing business. And then, in addition to that, if you could comment on your expectations for client revenue retention next year and also for pricing?

為了更深入了解2024財年的業績指引，能否請您詳細說明明年管理解決方案收入成長的根本驅動因素？特別是，能否先談談剛過去的年末銷售旺季，您提到這個旺季表現強勁？能否具體說明一下，在客戶群中，哪些部分的訂單表現特別突出，例如像SurePayroll這樣的小規模業務，以及更核心的薪資處理業務？此外，能否談談您對明年顧客營收留存率和定價的預期？

Okay. Let me break it into 2 pieces, and then do let John comment on the selling season. So David, look, to put the revenue plan together for Management Solutions, I'd say you've got to -- you've got to get several dimensions reasonably right. The first is obviously what we expect from a client growth perspective, and John can talk to what we saw during the selling season. What I mean is unit growth in terms of sales.

好的。我把它分成兩部分來講，然後讓約翰談談銷售季的狀況。大衛，你看，要製定管理解決方案的收入計劃，我認為你必須——你必須在幾個方面都做到比較準確。首先，顯然是我們從客戶成長的角度所期望的，約翰可以談談我們在銷售季期間看到的情況。我指的是銷售額方面的成長。

The second part is what do you expect from a pricing standpoint, too early to talk exactly what we're going to do. But those 2 components, both client growth and also pricing are part of our assumptions going into next year. You want to get the right level of product attachment, continued growth on the ancillary products in the bundled suite including time and attendance, HR administration.

第二部分是關於定價方面的預期，現在談論具體方案還為時過早。但客戶成長和定價這兩個因素都是我們明年計畫的假設基礎。我們希望產品附加價值能維持在適當的水平，同時捆綁套件中的輔助產品（包括考勤和人力資源管理）也能持續成長。

And then increasingly, within Management Solutions, retirement and HR drive a lot of growth. And we're assuming strong years within both of those products, partly on the return side based on what John said. So you put all those together, and that forms the basis of our thought process around Management Solutions. And then PEO and insurance, we expect to grow faster than we've seen this year in part because of some of the headwinds we feel will abate as we get into next year, although that may still be evident in Q1.

此外，在管理解決方案領域，退休和人力資源業務正日益成為成長的主要驅動力。我們預計這兩個產品領域未來幾年都將保持強勁成長，部分原因是約翰所說的回報因素。綜上所述，這構成了我們對管理解決方案的思考基礎。至於專業雇主組織 (PEO) 和保險業務，我們預計其成長速度將超過今年，部分原因是我們認為一些不利因素將在明年逐漸減弱，儘管這些不利因素在第一季可能仍然存在。

You framed the question correctly in the sense that if we come out of the selling season, and we haven't felt like we've had some of our objectives, it becomes a little bit more challenging to put the plan for '24 together, but John called out the fact that we thought we had good performance in the selling season. We obviously are not giving percentages at this point. We think after Q4, we gave you a lot of detail about client base, et cetera, and we'll talk about that. But I'll let John talk to what we were seeing during the selling season.

你提出的問題很恰當，如果銷售季結束後，我們感覺有些目標沒有達成，那麼制定2024年的計畫就會更具挑戰性。但約翰指出，我們認為銷售季的表現不錯。當然，我們現在不方便透露具體百分比。我們認為，在第四季之後，我們已經詳細介紹了客戶群等情況，以後會詳細討論。現在，就讓約翰來談談我們在銷售季期間的觀察。

Yes. No, I think, David, the key point was -- is we had both strong revenue production -- new revenue production and good volume production across the core business and then really just continue to see this accelerated level. I mean, we were growing our HR businesses. We're growing a good healthy clip before the pandemic and when the pandemic hit, we started to come out and they accelerated. And we're really seeing strong growth there, strong growth in retirement services, our online services, time and attendance, the other bundles that we're offering of retention insights.

是的。不，我認為，大衛，關鍵在於——我們既有強勁的營收成長——包括新增營收，也有核心業務的良好銷量，而且這種加速成長的勢頭還在持續。我的意思是，我們的人力資源業務一直在成長。在疫情爆發前，我們的成長速度相當可觀，疫情爆發後，我們開始逐步恢復正常，成長速度也加快了。我們看到，退休服務、線上服務、考勤管理以及我​​們提供的其他員工保留洞察服務都實現了強勁成長。

We're just seeing a lot of traction in our products and services than we saw in the third quarter. And I said the third quarter was a step-up from the second quarter, we felt pretty good about the second quarter. So -- and it was a very highly competitive environment. I would say there's a lot of aggressive competitors out there. And I think our products and our sales team did a great job on executing. Also, the other thing I feel good about in that quarter is we sell a lot of our business, over 50% of our new clients come to us from strategic partnerships, and we had a good year-over-year increase there. And again, I think what's going on there, not only as our products and services resonating, but I think people that are advising clients are beginning to put a preference on, hey, if I'm going to advise my clients where to go, maybe they need to be in a nice safe place where I don't have to have worries about whether or not their employees are going to get paid.

我們看到產品和服務的市場反應比第三季好得多。我說過第三季比第二季有所提升，我們對第二季的表現也相當滿意。當時的市場競爭非常激烈，有許多咄咄逼人的競爭對手。我認為我們的產品和銷售團隊在執行方面做得非常出色。此外，我對第三季業績感到滿意的另一個原因是，我們透過策略合作夥伴關係拓展了大量業務，超過50%的新客戶來自策略合作夥伴，而且這部分業務實現了同比增長。我認為，這不僅是因為我們的產品和服務獲得了市場認可，還因為那些為客戶提供諮詢的人士開始更加註重客戶體驗，他們會想，如果我要給客戶推薦合作夥伴，他們應該選擇一個安全可靠的平台，這樣我就不用擔心他們的員工能否拿到工資了。

So I think that's also helped us in the third quarter as well.

所以我認為這對我們第三季的表現也有幫助。

Just pivoting to the float, Efrain. How are you positioning the float if the Fed is almost done raising short-term interest rates?

埃弗雷恩，我們來談談浮動利率。如果聯準會即將結束短期利率上調，你打算如何配置浮動利率？

So that's an interesting point, David. I wonder whether they're almost done raising short interest rates. I tend to agree with you, but I'm not so certain about it. But the levers you have there is what percentage you have long term versus what percentage you have short term? And where do you lock -- where you lock long-term rates and over a period of time, so you can manage what happens on the downside of the cycle. So we're starting to extend duration now because we're of the conviction that interest rates seem to be getting close to some sort of peak.

戴維，你說的很有意思。我想知道他們是不是快要停止提高短期利率了。我基本上同意你的看法，但也不能完全確定。關鍵在於長期利率和短期利率的比例。以及如何鎖定長期利率——鎖定一段時間，這樣才能應對週期下行階段的情況。我們現在開始延長久期，是因為我們認為利率似乎已經接近高峰。

Having said that, my prognostication skills on this or not anything anyone should take to the bank. But I do think from a portfolio management perspective, it's probably better to start going longer now for us. We were shorter earlier in the year.

話雖如此，我對這件事的預測能力如何，大家不必完全相信。但從投資組合管理的角度來看，我認為現在對我們來說或許應該開始做多。年初的時候我們是做空的。

Our next question comes from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·埃爾-阿薩爾。

Efrain, can I ask you to drill down a little bit in terms of the factors that are giving you confidence that the insurance side of PEO will improve next year. Just curious about the drivers or sort of reasoning behind that expectation.

埃弗雷恩，能否請你詳細說說，是什麼因素讓你相信PEO的保險業務明年會有所改善？我只是好奇你這個預期背後的驅動因素或理由。

Yes. So two things, Ramsey, it's interesting. It's been an unusual year in the sense that we've seen softness in insurance inside the PEO, and we've seen softness in insurance, particularly healthcare insurance, in our agency. I'd start with the kind of obvious point that -- at some point, people do need health insurance. And at some point, as clients grow within the PEO, we add more clients, we're going to get more health care attachment.

是的。拉姆齊，有兩點值得關注。今年情況特殊，一方面是PEO內部的保險業務疲軟，另一方面是我們代理機構的保險業務，尤其是醫療保險業務疲軟。首先，我想指出一個顯而易見的道理──人們遲早都需要醫療保險。隨著PEO內部客戶數量的成長，我們新增的客戶越多，醫療保健方面的業務需求也會越多。

What's happened this year is that in the PEO in particular, you have renewals that occur in the fall and then you have renewals that occur at the beginning of the year. And if in that cycle, you don't get what you expected, you basically have to wait for some period of time before we start all of that process a little over again. So we -- as we went through the year -- in the first half of the year, we got okay, we're going to come out of the year with robust insurance as we get to the end of the year, it was better, but it wasn't what we expected.

今年發生的情況是，尤其是在PEO（專業雇主組織）方面，秋季和年初都會有續保。如果在續保週期內，您沒有獲得預期的續保，基本上就需要等待一段時間，然後我們才能重新開始整個流程。所以，今年上半年情況尚可，我們預期年底時保險狀況會比較穩定，但並沒有達到預期。

On the agency side, it's been moderating as we've gone through the year. And we've gone through cycles like this where it seems attachment is lower and then it picks up. So part of it is almost a new reversion phenomenon that we think will occur. But the second part is we put a number of different initiatives in place that don't bear immediate fruit, but we think we'll bear fruit as we go into next year. One thing that's really interesting final point on that, John, just to highlight something John said, which is this preference for ASO versus PEO is a permanent preference for many clients eventually that want a PEO solution because they want the benefit on those and we're expecting that we're going to see more of that as we head into next year. So while PEO performance, I would just highlight the PEO performance has been lower than what we anticipated during the year. It's still been growing at a decent clip. It's being somewhat attenuated by the insurance business, which has been very, very sluggish through the year.

就代理機構而言，今年以來情況有所緩和。我們經歷過類似的周期，客戶依從性似乎會先降低，然後又回升。因此，部分原因在於我們認為會出現一種新的迴歸現象。但另一方面，我們實施了一系列不同的舉措，這些舉措不會立即見效，但我們相信它們會在明年取得成效。約翰，關於這一點，最後一點非常有趣，我想強調約翰的觀點，那就是許多客戶最終會傾向於選擇ASO而不是PEO，因為他們希望獲得PEO解決方案帶來的好處，我們預計明年這種情況會更加普遍。所以，關於PEO的業績，我想強調的是，PEO的業績低於我們今年的預期。儘管如此，它仍然保持著不錯的成長速度。這在一定程度上受到了保險業務的拖累，保險業務今年一直非常低迷。

Yes, Ramsey, I would add to that, I think it's important to understand that particularly on the insurance attachment side in the PEO, remember, that's a lot of pass-through revenue, not a lot of margin. But it's a big dollar number. So a small percentage change in any direction has probably an overweighted impact on the revenue in the PEO, right? And so extra 1% or 2% and then another 1% or 2% participation within the base, I think, is critical.

是的，拉姆齊，我還要補充一點，我認為尤其在PEO的保險附加費方面，理解這一點非常重要。記住，這部分收入大部分是轉嫁收入，利潤空間不大。但金額卻相當可觀。因此，任何方向的微小百分比變化都可能對PEO的收入產生過大的影響，對吧？所以，額外增加1%或2%的參與率，以及基礎參與率再增加1%或2%，我認為都至關重要。

And to Efrain's point, you have this opportunity to reset your insurance portfolio every open enrollment, and you're hoping that you have the right portfolio of cost and the type of plans that people can afford and they want to gravitate to and what they're going to do and that cycle comes up every fall and into the winter. So certainly, we're taking a lot of data. We're doing a review of every market for the PEO and looking at our health insurance line up, making sure it's competitive. We're taking an affordable for clients. We're talking to our clients. We're already in the process beginning to reset that and talk about that reset.

正如埃弗雷恩所說，每個開放註冊期都是重新調整保險組合的機會，我們希望能夠提供合適的成本組合，以及人們能夠負擔得起並願意選擇的保險計劃類型。這個週期每年秋季和冬季都會到來。所以，我們當然會收集大量數據。我們正在對PEO的每個市場進行審查，並審視我們的健康保險產品線，確保其具有競爭力。我們正在為客戶提供價格合理的保險方案。我們正在與客戶溝通。我們已經開始著手調整並討論這個調整方案。

So we're confident that we'll have the right lineup and the right opportunity, and then as Efrain said, historically, most of Paychex PEO sales really prior to our acquisition of Oasis was coming from upgrading ASO clients into the PEO business, a lot of inside the base.

因此，我們有信心擁有合適的陣容和合適的機會。正如 Efrain 所說，從歷史上看，在我們收購 Oasis 之前，Paychex PEO 的大部分銷售額實際上都來自將 ASO 客戶升級到 PEO 業務，很多都是來自現有客戶群內部。

Now it's far more outside the base, but we still have that capability inside the base. So we think there's additional opportunity inside our client base to upgrade them to PEO and that not only increases the revenue, but it also increases the lifetime value of the customer to us, it's the right thing to do for the business, and we'll be looking at plans to do that as we go into next year as well.

現在這項服務已經擴展到基地之外，但我們在基地內部仍然具備這種能力。因此，我們認為在現有客戶群中存在更多機會，可以將他們升級到PEO（專業雇主組織）服務，這不僅能增加收入，還能提高客戶的終身價值，這對公司發展來說是正確的選擇，我們將在明年繼續研究相關計劃。

Let me sneak 1 last follow-up, you called out higher revenue per client as a driver in the quarter. And I'm just curious, over time, have you seen the kind of overall growth algorithm of the business shift more such that, that higher rev per client metric is sort of more important. I guess the underlying question is, do you expect sort of ongoing gains there to sort of persist or is it -- was there something a little more lumpy about it that we should be aware of?

最後再補充一個問題，您提到本季客戶單收入成長是主要驅動因素。我很好奇，隨著時間的推移，您是否觀察到公司整體成長演算法發生了轉變，使得客戶單收入這項指標變得更加重要？我想問的是，您是否預期這種持續成長的趨勢能夠維持下去，還是說其中存在一些我們應該注意的波動？

No. For sure. I mean, if you look at -- if you parse all the data, I'm not sure you get it from all of the public disclosure, you get pretty close. You've seen persistent growth in revenue per client. So I think we've been very skillful at finding new opportunities, both with product attachment, but also the ability to create new products and services within our client base to drive that revenue higher.

不，當然。我的意思是，如果你仔細分析所有數據——我不確定你是否能從所有公開披露的資訊中獲取到所有數據——你會發現結果相當接近。每個客戶的收入持續成長。所以我認為我們非常擅長尋找新的機會，這不僅體現在產品附加價值上，也體現在我們能夠為現有客戶群創造新產品和服務，從而進一步提升收入。

So yes, we can talk about an algorithm that's about units and price, or we can talk about an algorithm that's really around revenue per client and revenue per client has become more important, certainly in the last 5 years.

所以，我們可以討論一個關於單位和價格的演算法，或者我們可以討論一個真正圍繞每個客戶收入的演算法，而每個客戶的收入在過去 5 年裡變得越來越重要。

I think it's important, Ramsey, to keep in mind, we're in states where we're driving more value to the customer and both through our technology as well as our advisory services and that value is driving retention. It's driving pricing power, and it's driving an openness to add additional products and services over time.

拉姆齊，我認為重要的是要記住，我們正處於為客戶創造更多價值的階段，這體現在我們的技術和諮詢服務上，而這種價值正在提高客戶留存率。它增強了我們的定價權，也促使我們隨著時間的推移增加更多產品和服務。

So the old traditional model we've always had, which is we've always been able to drive price increases over time to cover our cost increases. We've been able to go into the base and drive attachment. I would lay on top of that because we focus so much on the HR value proposition and driving customers up our kind of value continuum, that the other benefit we're seeing here is revenue retention. And now they're looking at us as their trusted adviser and they're saying, "I want my 401(k) with Paychex, I want my time and attendance with Paychex. I want my other digital offerings from Paychex. I want my insurance from Paychex."

所以，我們一直以來沿用的傳統模式，就是逐步提價來彌補成本上漲。我們能夠深入挖掘客戶基礎，增強客戶忠誠度。在此基礎上，我們更重視人力資源價值主張，致力於提升顧客在我們價值鏈上的體驗，因此我們看到的另一個好處是顧客留存率。現在，客戶將我們視為值得信賴的顧問，他們會說：“我希望我的401(k)退休計劃使用Paychex，我的考勤管理使用Paychex，我的其他數字化產品使用Paychex，我的保險也使用Paychex。”

Our next question comes from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

下一個問題來自安德魯·尼古拉斯和威廉·布萊爾。

This is Daniel Maxwell on for Andrew today. Sort of similar to the last question, but specifically on WSE growth. in the PEO and ASO client base. If you can break apart how much of that is coming from existing clients versus new clients and attrition. And any color on why there has been a preference for ASO over PEO and the reasons you expect that balance to normalize? Is that just coming from increased confidence in upselling to PEO? Or is there anything else in there?

今天我是丹尼爾‧麥克斯韋爾，替安德魯提問。這個問題和上一個問題有點類似，但具體是關於WSE在PEO和ASO客戶群方面的成長。您能否詳細分析一下，這些成長分別有多少來自現有客戶、新客戶以及客戶流失？另外，您能否解釋一下為什麼客戶更傾向於ASO而不是PEO，以及您認為這種比例最終會趨於平衡的原因？這只是因為客戶對PEO追加銷售的信心增強嗎？還是另有其他原因？

Yes, Daniel. So we've seen healthy growth in WSEs across ASO and PEO. We don't separately break them out, but both have been growing. So we're seeing positive results on that side of the equation, splitting it out between new adds versus existing base. The reality is that because the existing base is so large, it dwarfs the impact of new adds from a WFE perspective, especially when you consider loss.

是的，丹尼爾。我們看到ASO和PEO領域的WSE（網站優化工程師）數量都實現了健康成長。我們沒有單獨列出具體數據，但兩者都在成長。因此，從新增用戶和現有用戶兩方面來看，我們看到了正面的成果。事實上，由於現有用戶基數龐大，從WFE（網站優化工程師）的角度來看，新增用戶的影響微乎其微，尤其是在考慮到損失的情況下。

And so -- so we've seen good growth on WSE that makes us, as John said, more positive about the general value of our HR advisory services both cross ASO and PEO. I'll let John talk through shifting preferences in a given year between ASO and PEO.

因此，我們在WSE上看到了良好的成長，正如約翰所說，這讓我們更加樂觀地看待我們的人力資源諮詢服務在ASO和PEO領域的整體價值。接下來，我將請約翰詳細闡述ASO和PEO領域在特定年份的偏好變化。

Yes, Daniel. I think that what you're seeing is -- and again, some of this is just speculation on our part, but when we see clients that had our insurance and we go through enrollment and where they had 25 employees that bought the insurance, now they have 22 or you see clients that had your insurance in the PEO and decide that they no longer going to have insurance or offer insurance for your employees.

是的，丹尼爾。我認為你看到的現像是——當然，其中一些只是我們的推測——但當我們看到一些客戶之前購買了我們的保險，我們辦理投保手續時，他們原本有25名員工購買了保險，現在只剩下22名員工了；或者你看到一些客戶之前通過PEO（專業雇主組織）購買了我們的保險，但現在決定不再為員工提供保險。

I just think you're in a position where given some of the uncertainty, people being cautious of adding a benefit. Now it's interesting, they know they need to have benefits to attract or retain employees. So 401(k) is doing very, very well. It's a lower cost benefit. It's a lower commitment. And now when we take the SECURE Act 2, technically, if you're a 20 million to 50 million company -- person company, you now can basically get a 401(k) set up and have all of the setup costs and the annual cost covered through tax credits.

我認為，鑑於目前存在的一些不確定因素，人們對增加福利持謹慎態度。但有趣的是，他們也意識到需要提供福利來吸引或留住員工。因此，401(k)計劃表現非常出色。它是一種成本較低的福利，投入也較少。而且，根據《安全退休法案2》(SECURE Act 2)，理論上講，如果一家公司（員工人數在2000萬到5000萬美元之間）現在基本上可以設立401(k)計劃，並且所有設立成本和年度費用都可以通過稅收抵免來覆蓋。

So those are things they're adding. But the health insurance, because of the size of the expenditure and the fact of matter is once you start offering it, it's a pretty long-term commitment you're making. I think there's a degree of hesitance to that. And again, as I said, I think there's more we can do in going out and looking for more innovative product sets that gives access, affordable access to health care for our employees and our teams are working on that. As we go through the new enrollment. But again, the issue you'll have there, that's going to be enrollment, we get into the fall of this calendar year and into the second quarter of our fiscal year. Does that help?

所以這些都是他們正在增加的項目。但是，由於醫療保險支出龐大，而且一旦開始提供，就意味著一項相當長期的承諾，所以大家對此都有些猶豫。正如我之前所說，我認為我們還可以做更多的事情，例如尋找更多創新的產品組合，為我們的員工提供可負擔的醫療保健服務，我們的團隊正在努力實現這一點。隨著新員工的註冊工作進行，這個問題將會得到解決。但是，你們面臨的問題仍然是註冊工作，這個問題將在今年秋季和本財年的第二季度出現。這樣解釋清楚了嗎？

Yes, that's helpful. And then just generally on capital allocation, anything on the attractiveness of buybacks going forward or any M&A opportunities that have become more attractive in the last few months in the pipeline? .

是的，這很有幫助。另外，關於資本配置方面，您對未來股票回購的吸引力有何看法？或者，最近幾個月有哪些併購機會變得更有吸引力？

Look, with respect to buybacks, I think we've talked about what our philosophy is in general. And at this stage, we're evaluating a range of opportunities from an M&A perspective and if the right opportunity, I'll let John talk to that, what we're looking at. But the right opportunity comes along, we obviously have the dry powder to be able to make something happen.

關於股票回購，我想我們已經討論過我們的整體理念。目前，我們正在從併購的角度評估一系列機會，如果出現合適的機會，我會讓約翰來談談我們正在關注的方面。但一旦合適的機會出現，我們顯然有足夠的資金來採取行動。

Yes. I think Daniel, I think our position has changed on this. I think the market conditions are changing and have changed and I think we're going to continually be on the lookout for opportunities that accelerate our position from an HR leader and the technology leader and continue to position us as the leading digital HR human capital management provider. So I would say some -- we've seen some valuations starting to come down. I'm sure the recent disruptions in the financial markets may create additional opportunities. And as Efrain said, we stand ready if the right opportunity comes around to pull the trigger. It's not that we haven't wanted to do something but we also are not going to overpay for something. So we're going to be -- you're going to see the same financial discipline you've continued to see from Paychex. We believe that the market conditions are more conducive to us moving forward on the M&A front, but we'll see if that actually transpires.

是的。丹尼爾，我認為我們在這個問題上的立場已經改變了。我認為市場環境正在發生變化，而且已經發生了變化，我們將持續尋找機會，鞏固我們在人力資源和技術領域的領先地位，並繼續將我們定位為領先的數位化人力資源人力資本管理提供者。所以，我認為——我們已經看到一些估值開始下降。我相信最近金融市場的動盪可能會創造更多機會。正如埃弗雷恩所說，如果合適的時機出現，我們隨時準備好出手。不是我們不想做點什麼，而是我們也不會為收購付出過高的價格。所以，你們將會看到Paychex一貫的財務紀律。我們相信，目前的市場環境更有利於我們在併購方面取得進展，但最終是否會實現，我們拭目以待。

Our next question comes from Samad Samana with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的薩馬德·薩馬納。

Maybe one, just as I think about that comment about the number of new customers coming through strategic partnerships, how should we think about maybe how that impacts kind of customer acquisition costs those tend to be slightly larger, smaller, more profitable, less profitable? How should we think about where you're acquiring the customers from and what the impact of that is to the financials?

或許，就在我思考關於透過策略夥伴關係獲得新客戶數量的評論時，我們應該如何考慮這會對客戶獲取成本產生怎樣的影響？這些成本往往會略高、略低，利潤更高或更低。我們應該如何考慮客戶的來源以及這對財務狀況的影響？

So I wouldn't think anything about it. I would just really more commenting that's been Paychex for 50 years. Over 50% of our new clients have always come from strategic alliances we have. We're a respected partner with the association, it has been the CPAs. And so they've always been a big source of ours.

所以我覺得沒必要多想。我只是想說，Paychex已經成立50年了。我們超過50%的新客戶都來自我們的策略聯盟。我們是協會（包括註冊會計師協會）的受人尊敬的合作夥伴。因此，他們一直是我們重要的客戶來源。

It doesn't do anything to our cost of acquisition. I just think they tilted certainly during the selling season, we saw a good uptick in how they were referring Paychex over other options that they have. That was my comment.

這不會影響我們的獲客成本。我只是覺得他們在銷售旺季期間的策略有所轉變，我們看到他們推薦Paychex的比例明顯上升，而不是其他選擇。這就是我的看法。

Okay. Great. And then as we think about the bookings in the quarter, anything to call out between the different kind of customer sizes so think about it as very downmarket and maybe more micro customers versus your average customer size. Just any trends or pockets of strength or weakness?

好的，太好了。接下來，當我們回顧本季的預訂情況時，不同規模的客戶群之間有什麼需要特別指出的嗎？例如，低端市場和微型客戶群體，與平均規模的客戶群相比，是否有任何趨勢或優勢/劣勢？

Well, actually, what I would say is we have good strength, I think, across the board. And actually, what I would tell you is that we actually saw a little more strength up market, not just the small start-up, 1s and 2s and on the digital side, which is during the pandemic, that's where we saw a lot of growth. We know business starts through the roof crazy levels they've subsided that they're still at high levels in comparison to pre-pandemic. So at that time, when all these start-ups were happening, also, we do a lot of managed payrolls in SurePayroll. So as you can imagine, a lot of people were hiring household staff during the pandemic.

實際上，我認為我們整體實力都很強大。而且，我想說的是，我們看到高端市場（不只是小型新創公司，例如1家或2家公司）的成長更為顯著，尤其是在數位領域，疫情期間我們看到了巨大的成長。我們知道，疫情期間企業數量激增，雖然有回落，但仍遠高於疫情前的水準。當時，在所有這些新創企業湧現的同時，我們也透過SurePayroll平台處理了大量的薪資管理業務。您可以想像，疫情期間很多人都在僱用家政人員。

We saw a lot of escalation in the very micro end of that space. I would say that's balanced out. It's gotten back to a more balanced world and what we saw in the third quarter was strength in the more traditional segments for Paychex.

我們看到微型企業數量激增，但目前這種趨勢已經趨於平衡。市場格局已經恢復平衡，Paychex 在第三季的傳統業務部門表現強勁。

Our next question comes from Bryan Bergin with TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 公司的 Bryan Bergin。

It's actually Jared Levine on for Bryan today. How does the 3Q PEO revenue and worksite employees come in relative to your expectations? And then what is the expectation for 4Q in terms of how worksite employees and at-risk health insurance revenue will compare to 3Q?

今天取代布萊恩的是賈里德·萊文。第三季PEO收入和工作場所員工人數與您的預期相比如何？第四季工作場所員工人數和風險健康保險收入與第三季相比又會如何？

Yes. Jared, I won't get into that level of granularity at this point. And -- so we will report as we get through the quarter-end and year-end, I'm not ready to dive into specific operational metrics for the PEO at this point. We called out that revenue was going to be lower in Q4. That's a function of the topics that we've been talking about relative to insurance. But yes, I won't go any further than that. We'll have more to say as we get to Q4.

是的，賈里德，我現在還不想深入討論這麼細緻的問題。我們會等到季末和年末再做報告，目前我還不方便透露PEO的具體營運指標。我們之前說過第四季的收入會下降，這跟我們一直在討論的保險相關問題有關。是的，我不會透露更多細節。等到第四季末，我們會有更多資訊公佈。

Okay. And then the 25 to 50 basis points of potential margin expansion for FY 24, can you discuss what the primary drivers of that expansion would be?

好的。那麼，對於2024財年可能出現的25至50個基點的利潤率擴張，您能否談談推動這項擴張的主要因素是什麼？

Yes. I mean it's a -- it's an emphasis that the company has had. We're going through the budget process, frankly, after this call, we've done, we'll start the process of putting our budget together. But -- we just have a mantra to get more efficient where we can get more efficient. And some of it comes from operations. Some of it comes from sales. Some of it comes from G&A. It's really across the business and where we see an opportunity to become more efficient. Not simply just cut costs, obviously, that's important, but also deploy technology where appropriate, to become better at doing what we're doing. We do it. I would say that many of the technologies that you read about and that you hear, we don't trump it, but we use.

是的。我的意思是，這是公司一直以來都非常重視的一點。坦白說，我們正在進行預算編制工作，這次通話結束後，我們將開始製定預算。但是，我們始終秉持著一個理念：盡可能提高效率。這其中一部分來自運營，一部分來自銷售，一部分來自一般及行政費用。實際上，這涵蓋了整個業務，只要我們看到可以提高效率的機會，就會去嘗試。當然，不僅僅是削減成本，這固然重要，還要在適當的地方部署技術，以便更好地完成我們正在做的事情。我們確實在這樣做。我想說，很多你讀到或聽到的技術，我們雖然沒有完全取代它們，但我們確實在使用。

And we think that advances in things like AI can be of tremendous help to technical services businesses. So we're excited about the potential, we understand the risk and are actively looking at how we can deploy those technologies to get more efficient, get better at serving the clients.

我們認為，人工智慧等領域的進步能夠大大幫助科技服務企業。因此，我們對這些技術的潛力感到興奮，同時也意識到其中的風險，並正在積極探索如何部署這些技術，以提高效率，更好地服務客戶。

Our next question comes from Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑森·庫柏伯格。

So I guess there's a school of thought out there that just one of the byproducts of the banking crisis, could be some tightening of credit, small businesses find it harder to get loans. They tend to bank with a lot of the regionals, et cetera. I'm just wondering what your take is on that as we start to look into fiscal '24. It doesn't sound like you guys are really assuming a recession per se in this preliminary outlook for next year. So I just want to get a reaction to that to start.

所以，我猜想有一種觀點認為，銀行業危機的副產品可能是信貸收緊，小企業更難獲得貸款。他們往往傾向於在區域性銀行等地方開戶。我想知道你們對此有何看法，尤其是在我們開始展望2024財年的時候。聽起來，你們在明年的初步展望中並沒有真正假設會出現經濟衰退。所以我想先聽聽你們對此的看法。

Yes, Jason, I think I kind of mentioned it in my remarks in some other questions. I don't think there's any doubt. I mean, prime is at 8% for small and midsized business centers and you talk to any regional bank that I've heard, and there's going to be some tightening of credit. That's part of the reason why we've seen a lot of our customers engaging us on our ERTC product.

是的，傑森，我想我在回答其他問題時也提到過這一點。這點毋庸置疑。我的意思是，目前中小企業的基準利率是8%，而且我跟任何一家我了解的區域性銀行都聊過，他們都會說信貸將會收緊。這也是為什麼我們看到很多客戶都在諮詢我們的ERTC產品的原因之一。

So it was interesting, I would say as we approach some of our clients, some of our clients feel like, I really don't need that. A lot of our clients don't -- again, we're Main Street small business owners. They're not -- they're not looking for a handout and they're probably sometimes a little gun shy to get out -- there's been a lot of talk about auditing this stuff.

所以我覺得很有意思，當我們接觸到一些客戶時，有些客戶會覺得，我真的不需要這些。很多客戶確實不需要──再說一遍，我們都是街頭小企業主。他們不是想伸手要錢，而且他們可能有時有點害怕公開談論這些——最近關於審計的討論很多。

We had a bunch of clients that have come back to us and said, "Hey, I can use this money. And on average, it's $180,000 per client. So we've been doing that. We created partnerships with fintechs during the PPP during the pandemic, and we're also helping our clients from that perspective as well because we've really become a trusted source for our clients to help them when they're trying to figure out how to take advantage of tax programs, of government programs.

很多客戶都回來告訴我們：「嘿，我可以用到這筆錢。」平均每個客戶能拿到18萬美元。所以我們一直在做這件事。在疫情期間的PPP專案期間，我們與金融科技公司建立了合作關係，我們也從這個角度幫助我們的客戶，因為我們確實已經成為客戶值得信賴的資源，幫助他們了解如何利用稅收優惠和政府專案。

When you look at the PPP loans, 9% of all of the PPP loans in the U.S. was placed by Paychex. That was more than JPMorgan and Bank of America, you guys combined. And so I think we're continuing to support them and help them, and we'll continue to look for ways that we can help them access nontraditional funding sources. And I think that's another part of our value proposition that our customers and our CPA partners are appreciating.

如果你看PPP貸款，你會發現美國所有PPP貸款中有9%是由Paychex發放的。這比摩根大通和美國銀行加起來還要多。所以我認為我們將繼續支持和幫助他們，並​​繼續尋找途徑，幫助他們獲得非傳統的融資管道。我認為這是我們價值主張的另一部分，我們的客戶和註冊會計師夥伴都非常認可這一點。

Okay. Understood. As a follow-up, I just wanted to ask on the float side of things, maybe a 2-parter there; the first part just being, obviously, the unrealized losses have increased with the rates going up, but just wanted to confirm, you guys can comfortably meet all the float obligations just with short-term component? I know you said so far to date, obviously, that's been the case. But I just wanted to make sure we shouldn't expect any material amount of realized losses? And then just any thoughts on Fed now coming this summer. Do you see any potential impacts on float if it's adopted by enough banks? And maybe just talk about how your float income breaks down between payroll and tax pieces.

好的，明白了。接下來我想問關於浮動利率方面的問題，可能要分兩部分來問。第一部分是，利率上升，未實現損失自然也增加了，我想確認一下，你們是否能夠僅靠短期資金就輕鬆履行所有浮動利率義務？我知道您之前說過，到目前為止確實如此。但我只是想確認一下，我們是否應該預期不會有任何實質的已實現損失？另外，您對聯準會今年夏天即將採取的措施有什麼看法？如果有足夠的銀行採用新措施，您認為這會對浮動利率產生什麼潛在影響？還有，能否談談你們的浮動利率收入是如何構成工資和稅收兩部分的？

Yes. Let me take the first part. Yes, Jason, obviously, one, as John mentioned earlier in the call, when you have interest rates rising 450 basis points at the pace it did and you're holding very high-quality securities, but our interest rates at 1.5%, you're going to take -- you're going to see some of the unrealized losses that you see in the portfolio. We hold our securities to maturity. So that really doesn't represent an issue. We've had swings from plus $100 million plus net now obviously to this point, had nothing to do with credit. So there's really no issues there. Understand why you ask and understand all of the concerns that others had.

是的。我先回答第一部分。是的，傑森，顯然，正如約翰在之前的電話會議中提到的，當利率以這樣的速度上漲450個基點，而你持有的是非常高質量的證券時（但我們目前的利率是1.5%），你會看到投資組合中一些未實現的損失。我們持有證券直至到期。所以這其實並不是問題。我們目前的淨收益已經超過1億美元，但這顯然與信貸無關。所以這方面真的沒有問題。我理解你為什麼會問這個問題，也理解其他人的所有擔憂。

So those securities will roll off the portfolio as they mature, just to remind people on the call, our average duration is around 3.5 years or so. So this is relatively quick. So no issues there. High quality, we really only about typically in A or above and no concerns there. The second part of your question, I didn't catch. I was focusing too much on the first part, Jason. So could you just...

所以這些證券到期後會從投資組合中移除。再次提醒一下，我們的平均久期大約是3.5年左右。所以這個過程相對較快，因此不存在問題。證券品質很高，我們通常只持有A級或以上的證券，這方面也不用擔心。關於你問題的第二部分，我沒聽清楚。我當時太專注於第一部了，Jason。所以你能…

Yes, so I was just asking about Fed now with those real-time [rails] coming this summer. Just any thoughts on how that could, if it all impact float balances, float income obviously like we'll see how many banks adopt it, right, but -- and then anything just on your float income, how it breaks down between the payroll and the tax pieces? Because I know, obviously, some of the float you hold a lot longer. So...

是的，我剛剛在問聯準會關於今年夏天即將推出的即時[軌道]系統的問題。您覺得這會對浮動資金餘額和浮動資金收入產生什麼影響？當然，我們也要看看有多少銀行會採用這項系統，對吧？還有，關於浮動資金收入，薪資和稅收部分是如何分配的？因為我知道，顯然，有些浮動資金會持有更久。所以…

Yes. Yes. Good question. So yes, we've been anticipating that at some point what the current landscape of payments, certainly ACH windows, which could provide some measure of the float that we have is going to narrow. But you, of course, you know business very well. A lot of our float income is not coming necessarily from overnight payroll, it is coming from taxes and that should not be impacted significantly under the Fed rules.

是的，是的，問得好。是的，我們一直預計，目前的支付格局，尤其是ACH支付窗口（它可以提供一定程度的資金周轉能力），在某個時候會收窄。當然，您非常了解商業運作。我們的大部分資金周轉收入並非來自隔夜薪資，而是來自稅收，而根據聯準會的規定，這部分收入應該不會受到太大影響。

The other part that I would say flip around there is that we stopped and there's not been a lot of conversations really as much lately about real-time payments. We do think that there will be opportunities in the future and that may be an opportunity to monetize even if you lose some element of the float income.

我想說的另一點是，我們最近很少再討論即時支付了。我們認為未來會有這方面的機會，即使會損失一部分浮動收入，這或許也是一個獲利的機會。

Final point, just the advertorial since this is my 12th year now. As you know, Jason, there was a point when our business was heavily dependent on float 27% or so of net income. We're in a different world right now. We'll manage through it even if it doesn't materialize quite the way we expect it to. But that's the breakdown of the 3 pieces that I think will impact us going into the future.

最後一點，就當是廣告吧，畢竟今年是我入行的第十二年了。傑森，你也知道，我們公司曾經非常依賴浮存金，約佔淨利的27%。現在情況完全不同了。即使最終結果可能和我們預期的不太一樣，我們也能撐過去。以上就是我認為會影響我們未來發展的三個因素的分析。

Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Efrain, I wanted to go back to your comment on Management Solutions, payroll and pricing. Do you think it's fair to assume that considering the inflationary environment we're in and obviously, that's impacting your costs as well that the pricing on the payroll side will be higher than normal, maybe not as high as it was last year, but higher than normal?

埃弗雷恩，我想再談談你之前關於管理解決方案、薪資和定價的評論。考慮到我們目前所處的通膨環境，以及這顯然也會影響到你們的成本，你認為薪資方面的定價是否會高於正常水平？也許不會像去年那麼高，但肯定會高於正常水平。

So I'll turn it over to for John some comments on pricing because I think that -- I think we need to distinguish between pure pricing and value delivered to customers. So -- but let me answer your question. So as you know, Kartik and everyone on the call knows, we typically have said that pricing is in the 2% to 4% range on a realized basis. So maybe it could be a little bit higher for some clients, but frequently or sometimes it's discounted.

所以接下來我把發言權交給約翰，讓他談談定價問題，因為我認為——我們需要區分純粹的定價和為客戶創造的價值。那麼——讓我先回答你的問題。正如你、卡爾蒂克以及所有在座的各位所知，我們通常所說的定價範圍是實際收益的2%到4%。所以，對於某些客戶來說，價格可能會略高一些，但通常情況下，我們會提供折扣。

I don't want to talk too much to the specifics around pricing next year. I think the pricing environment will not be quite the same as it was this year. I think it was somewhat of an unusual situation given inflation. Having said that, I just want to limit that comment to the issue of pricing and not let them not include value. I do think there's always an opportunity to think about how to add more value to a customer and then charge them for that because they're willing to accept that. I'll let John comment on some of the things that we think about in that respect.

我不想多談明年的具體定價策略。我認為明年的定價環境不會跟今年完全一樣。考慮到通貨膨脹，今年的情況確實有些特殊。話雖如此，我只想就定價問題發表一些看法，不想忽略價值因素。我認為我們始終有機會思考如何為客戶創造更多價值，然後根據客戶的需求收取相應的費用。關於這方面的一些想法，就讓約翰來談談吧。

Yes. We certainly don't want to talk about future pricing on this call. But I think it's fair to say that we have gotten far more scientific and precise about the ability and willingness of our customer base to pay based upon a series of attributes about the way that they consume our services, the way they want to be served, and what products that if we attach, we see better stickiness and price elasticity.

是的。我們當然不想在這次電話會議上討論未來的定價。但我認為可以肯定的是，我們已經更加科學、更加精確地了解了客戶群的支付能力和意願，這基於一系列屬性，包括他們使用我們服務的方式、他們希望獲得的服務方式，以及如果我們附加哪些產品，就能提高客戶粘性和價格彈性。

So a lot of AI, a lot of data science, a lot of modeling for us to be very precise in that regard. And then as Efrain said, I think we try to talk a lot more about value and about how we engage them in the utilization of our products and services. We approached over -- for the first time in third quarter over 100 million mobile users interactions with our Paychex Flex product. And a vast majority of those are employees engaging the product. And we've been doing a lot to really introduce that to not only our clients, but their employees, but now they're getting accustomed to the notification, the way Paychex, the way they can make changes in real time.

因此，我們運用了大量的人工智慧、資料科學和建模技術，才能在這方面做到非常精準。正如Efrain所說，我們更注重價值的闡述，以及如何引導使用者使用我們的產品和服務。第三季度，我們的Paychex Flex產品行動用戶互動量首次突破1億。其中絕大多數用戶是員工。我們一直在努力向客戶及其員工推廣這款產品，現在他們已經逐漸習慣了Paychex的通知功能，以及即時更改設定的方式。

And what we're seeing is people that we can do that with actually see that as a higher value. And as you can imagine, it's a higher -- it's a better customer experience, and there's also some service and margin benefit there at the same time. So that's been another lever that we understand as well that we're pushing on. So I think what you're going to see is us continue to understand what things we need to engage the customer around that if we engage them on those items, it's going to increase the value they get from Paychex. And because of our competitive position, allow us to, I think, generate more value to the bottom line at the same time.

我們發現，那些能夠做到這一點的人，實際上認為這更有價值。如您所想，這能帶來更好的客戶體驗，同時也能提升服務和利潤率。因此，這也是我們一直在努力前進的另一個關鍵因素。我認為，我們將繼續探索如何與客戶互動，如果我們能圍繞這些方面與他們互動，就能提升他們從Paychex獲得的價值。而且，憑藉我們的競爭優勢，我認為這也能同時提升我們的獲利能力。

Fair. And then just -- we've talked a lot about, obviously, PEO and ASO. And I'm just wondering if you could give a little bit of context as to revenue per client PEO versus ASO?

好的。然後──我們之前也聊了很多關於PEO和ASO的內容。我想請您簡單介紹PEO和ASO的單一客戶收入比較情況？

Yes. I'd say, Kartik, the way to think about it is ASO does not, in general includes insurances. And so what you end up getting in a little bit of price on PEO on the base product is the added revenue that comes from benefit attachment, typically, workers' comp and also healthcare. Not all clients take health care, but when they do, then the revenue can be significantly higher.

是的。卡爾蒂克，我想說的是，ASO（應用程式商店優化）通常不包含保險。因此，PEO（專業雇主組織）基礎產品價格中略高的部分，實際上是附加福利帶來的額外收入，通常是工傷賠償和醫療保健。並非所有客戶都購買醫療保健，但如果他們購買了，那麼收入就會顯著提高。

Our next question comes from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的布萊恩·基恩。

Just a clarification on the preliminary outlook for fiscal year '24. It doesn't sound like you expect the U.S. recession in that guidance. Is that correct? And I guess if we do see a U.S. recession, how would it show up in the numbers, Efrain, because there's definitely a lag impact to where it shows up in the actual financials?

關於2024財年的初步展望，我想確認一下。聽起來您似乎沒有在預測中考慮美國經濟衰退的影響，是這樣嗎？另外，如果美國真的出現經濟衰退，它會在財務數據中如何反映？因為經濟衰退的影響肯定會有滯後性，才會反映在實際的財務數據中。

Yes. So Bryan, that is a good point. And obviously, we all hear the same chatter everyone is hearing. So let me just give the answer to that. That's a little bit more new one. At this point, I can only tell you what we see right now. And I can say, as we said we've repeated earlier, we see signs of moderation that we've been seeing progress since the fall after Q1, but we don't see any significant signs of slowing. So we just got through the last 3 months, John gave an overview of kind of what was happening from the selling season, that would have been to a signal that, hey, maybe something going on here that we needed to pay attention to and incorporate.

是的。布萊恩，你說得很有道理。顯然，我們都聽到了同樣的傳言。所以，讓我來回答這個問題。這算是比較新的情況。目前，我只能告訴你我們目前觀察到的情況。正如我們之前反覆提到的，我們看到了一些緩和的跡象，自第一季後秋季以來，我們一直在取得進展，但沒有看到任何明顯的放緩跡象。過去三個月，約翰概述了銷售季的情況，這原本可能是一個信號，表明這裡可能存在一些我們需要關注並加以利用的情況。

At this point, through the selling season, we haven't seen signs of a slowdown. Again, I've seen signs of moderation and we've incorporated that in our thinking. To the extent that we saw a slowdown, obviously, we'd see it by July, and we've incorporated that in our thinking, we come back and say, guess what, things are slowing down. I don't think that things will occur that way, but it could.

到目前為止，銷售旺季期間，我們還沒有看到任何放緩的跡象。相反，我看到了一些趨於緩和的跡象，我們也將此納入我們的考慮。如果真的出現放緩，顯然我們會在7月份看到，我們也已將此納入考量，屆時我們可能會發現，情況正在放緩。我不認為這種情況一定會發生，但也不是完全沒有可能。

The way we think about the year is really -- and I've said this probably for the last 3 or 4 years, it's in 2 halves. So I think that our confidence in terms of what we expect to see in the first half is at this stage, decent. I mean by thesis, I mean, we've got enough trending to say something should not fall off the cliff in the first half of the year. The Fed is tight. And John said, our clients are going to be much more impacted by rate increases in the prime rate than anything else. And at this point, they seem to be absorbing where we're at and it seems to be absorbing a higher rate environment.

我們對一年的思考方式——我過去三、四年一直都這麼說——是將其分為上下半年。所以，我認為我們目前對上半年的期望還是比較有信心的。我的意思是，我們掌握的趨勢足以讓我們相信，上半年經濟不會出現斷崖式下跌。聯準會的貨幣政策很緊縮。約翰也說過，對我們的客戶而言，基準利率的上升將比其他任何因素都更能影響他們。目前來看，他們似乎正在適應當前的高利率環境。

And the other thing that I would say is that our thought process is that we're getting close to peak short-term rates. So if we put that all of those factors into the gumbo and then stir it up a bit and see what our view is of first half and look at the micro factors in the business, strength in retirement services, strength in HR, we're seeing good progress on HCM and then a rebound in PEO, it produces the results we have.

另外，我想說的是，我們認為短期利率即將達到高峰。所以，如果我們把所有這些因素都考慮進去，然後稍微調整一下，看看我們對上半年的看法，再看看業務中的微觀因素，比如退休服務、人力資源方面的優勢，我們看到人力資本管理方面取得了良好進展，專業雇主組織（PEO）業務也出現了反彈，最終就得出了我們現在看到的這些結果。

Now the nuance that I would provide to that is that, that takes us through, as you know, the end of November. That's the first half. We'll come up for air and see is that the trends that we expected to occur in the back half of the year actually materialized. At this point, it's a little tough to call that 9 months out, but that's why we labeled it preliminary. Right now, the point, Bryan, after I get all of those words is simply to say at this point, we don't have anything in our data that's suggesting that a slowdown is occurring or is it imminent.

現在我想補充的是，如你所知，這涵蓋了11月底的情況。那是上半年。我們會稍作喘息，看看我們預期會在下半年出現的趨勢是否真的出現了。現在距離下半年還有9個月，很難妄下斷言，所以我們才稱之為初步結果。布萊恩，說完這些之後，我想強調的是，目前我們的數據沒有任何跡象顯示經濟正在放緩，或即將放緩。

Now if the Fed were to decide that it needs to go back to a cycle of 50 basis points increased rates, we're going to have a different conversation really quick. Don't see that happening. And 1 final point. All of us on the call we're wondering 2 or 3 weeks ago when we're going to have a systemic banking crisis on our hand, but we certainly were looking at that and concerned about it. It seems like the economy was resilient enough and the Fed did, I should say, treasury did the right things in terms of shoring up the banking system.

如果聯準會決定恢復每次升息50個基點的週期，那麼我們很快就會面臨截然不同的局面。但我認為這種情況不會發生。最後一點，兩三週前，我們所有人都在討論系統性銀行危機何時會爆發，當時我們確實在關注並擔憂這個問題。但現在看來，經濟韌性足夠，而且聯準會（或者說財政部）在支撐銀行體系方面也採取了正確的措施。

So we're -- we have the environment we have. We understand what factors are moderating. We think that what this outlook incorporates is our best thinking on the environment. And I think that -- having said that, our confidence in the second half, obviously, will be something that we'll talk about -- talk more about as we go through the year.

所以，我們──我們面對的是現有的環境。我們了解哪些因素在起到調節作用。我們認為，這種展望包含了我們對環境的最佳思考。而且我認為——話雖如此，我們對下半年的信心，顯然，我們將在今年晚些時候進一步討論。

Yes. And I would -- yes, Bryan. I'd just point you to our Paychex IHS job index reports on our website and look at January and look at February, we released it every month. Both months, the job index improved. We didn't see that in any other consecutive months in the prior fiscal year. So certainly, we don't see as Efrain already said, and I can reiterate what Efrain said, but even the edge, the benchmarks that we would see that would be sized, we've been doing this for a while. And we have a lot of historical models of what it looks like leading into a recession.

是的。我會的——是的，布萊恩。我建議你看看我們網站上的Paychex IHS就業指數報告，看看一月和二月的數據，我們每個月都會發布。這兩個月的就業指數都有改善。在上一個財政年度的其他連續月份中，我們沒有看到這種情況。所以，正如埃弗雷恩剛才所說，我們當然沒有看到任何跡象，我也可以重申埃弗雷恩的觀點，但即使是那些我們用來衡量經濟衰退的基準，我們也已經做了很長時間了。我們有很多關於經濟衰退前夕經濟情勢的歷史模型。

And we're just not seeing those. And what we hear from our clients in terms of the labor market, in terms of their employment, again, moderation, stabilization. They're not signing up for any big pieces. And I understand the challenge, and I try to put it in perspective is saying, how can you hear all this on the TV and the newspapers of what's happening and then rationalize that with what I walk into the office and hear every day.

但我們並沒有看到這些。從客戶那裡了解到的勞動市場狀況，以及他們的就業狀況，仍然是溫和、穩定。他們沒有簽約任何大型專案。我理解其中的挑戰，我試著從另一個角度來看這個問題：電視和報紙上報道的種種情況，與我每天走進辦公室聽到的情況相比，究竟如何才能自圓其說？

And I do think in some respects, I said it in earlier comments and so the way I've rationalized it is we -- there's 2 different small business worlds. And I think there's a lot of money put into a lot of tech companies, a lot of people that didn't have to make money, could spend money, could pay whatever they needed to, could hire as many people even if they didn't have stuff for them to do. I think that bubble is bursting and you're seeing that being digested.

在某些方面，我確實這麼認為，就像我之前說過的那樣，我的解釋是，我們——存在著兩種截然不同的小企業世界。我認為很多科技公司投入了大量資金，很多人原本不必賺錢，可以隨意花錢，可以支付任何他們需要的費用，可以僱用盡可能多的人，即使他們沒有實際工作可做。我認為這種泡沫正在破裂，而你現在看到的正是這種破裂所帶來的衝擊。

I don't see the foundation of Main Street small business at this point, having those same type of dynamics that you're reading in the paper. I just simply can't put it any other way, but we're just not seeing it in the numbers. Now is there going to be a trickle down. And certainly, the banking thing last week was certain concerning because that gets contagious. Hopefully, the policymakers and individuals can do things to continue to help support Main Street small businesses from being impacted from this kind of irrational actors that are doing things that don't make sense. But I'll get off that soapbox.

目前來看，我並沒有看到商業街小企業像報紙上報道的那樣蓬勃發展。我實在找不到其他說法，但我們從數據上看不出任何跡象。現在的問題是，這種趨勢是否會向下蔓延？當然，上週銀行業發生的事情確實令人擔憂，因為這種事會像病毒一樣蔓延開來。希望政策制定者和個人能夠採取措施，繼續幫助商業街小型企業免受這些不理智行為者的衝擊。好了，我就說到這裡吧。

Our next question comes from Peter Christiansen with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的彼得‧克里斯蒂安森。

Just wondering if we can get a sense for the health of the top of the funnel, if we were to exclude the ERTC side of things, what are you seeing from new business formation and also perhaps some share shift from regional sell filers, that kind of stuff would be helpful color there.

我想知道，如果我們排除ERTC方面的情況，能否了解一下漏斗頂端的健康狀況，例如新成立的公司數量，以及區域性出售申報者的份額變化，這些資訊會很有幫助。

Yes. Peter, again, I'll go back. What we see is on business applications, business starts, again, they're back to pre-pandemic levels. So I was trying to explain to people that when you look -- when I look at 5, because we're doing our budget planning, so I'm looking back almost 5 fiscal years now and fiscal year '19 stands out because then you see all this auditing going on in the other fiscal years.

是的。彼得，我再說一次。我們看到的是，在商業申請和新企業數量方面，它們已經恢復到疫情前的水平。所以我試著向大家解釋，當我們查看——我查看的是過去五年的數據，因為我們正在做預算規劃，所以我現在回顧了將近五個財年的數據，而2019財年比較特殊，因為之後你會發現其他財年都進行了大量的審計工作。

Business starts are down from where they were historically. And that's why when I even look at some of our retention in the small end, that doesn't surprise me because even in good times or bad times, a small business that starts 2 years later, most of them aren't in business. So when I look at it, there's a good stable new business starts. When I looked at our sales from the third quarter, they were strong across the board, not just in ERTC but across the board.

新企業數量較歷史水準下降。因此，即使我查看一些小型企業的留存率，也並不感到意外，因為無論經濟形勢好壞，兩年後新成立的小企業大多已經倒閉。所以，我認為新企業數量大致穩定成長。第三季的銷售額表現強勁，不僅ERTC業務如此，其他所有業務也都表現良好。

And so I really -- again, I'll go back. I'm not seeing anything on a macro level that would indicate to me that there are macro issues or there are demand issues relative to the products and services that we're offering.

所以，我真的——再說一遍，我沒看到任何宏觀層面的跡象表明存在宏觀問題，或者我們提供的產品和服務有需求問題。

Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Mark Marcon。

A couple of questions. One is basically in terms of the margin guide, or the preliminary thoughts with regards to margins for next year. To what extent would you expect to see any sort of improvement in terms of the margins ex the impact of float income? And how are you thinking about that?

我有幾個問題。第一個問題主要關於利潤率指引，或者說您對明年利潤率的初步看法。您預計在不考慮浮存金收入的影響的情況下，利潤率會有多大程度的改善？您對此有何看法？

Yes, it's a good question. Mark, I don't think float will play as big an impact on margin expansion as it did this year. I will hold the answer to that question. And so I've gone through the budget process because it will depend on where I end up in terms of float income for next year. We anticipate that it will grow so that will have a modest impact on the -- it will exert a positive impact on margin next year. But remember, Mark, one other thing is that we called out ERTC as moderating, that's going to exert a countervailing force.

是的，這是個好問題。馬克，我認為浮存金對利潤率擴張的影響不會像今年那麼大。這個問題我暫時保留答案。我已經完成了預算流程，因為這取決於明年浮存金收入的最終情況。我們預期浮存金收入會成長，因此會對利潤率產生適度的正面影響。但馬克，別忘了還有一點，我們之前提到員工留任稅收抵免（ERTC）會起到抑製作用，這將起到一定的抵消作用。

So when I pull those 2 together, I'll figure it out and answer on Q4. But I don't think -- I think there will be, at the end of the day, likely real improvement in operating margin when all is said and done.

所以，等我把這兩件事綜合起來，我會在第四季給答案。但我認為——我認為最終，在一切塵埃落定之後，營業利潤率很可能會真正提高。

Do you think there will or will not be?

你認為會有還是不會有？

Will, that's my expectation. But I haven't gone...

威爾，這是我的預期。但我還沒去過…

But ex quote, we should see some margin improvement. And then -- and then with regards to -- I know you're in the budget process now, but are you anticipating an increase in terms of the sales force and in terms of the overall headcount within the business? Or are the technological innovations that you're making sufficient to basically continue to drive the business with the same headcount.

但正如他們所說，我們應該會看到利潤率提高。然後——關於這一點——我知道你們現在正在進行預算編制，但你們預計銷售團隊和公司整體員工人數會增加嗎？或者你們正在進行的技術創新是否足以在現有員工人數下繼續推動業務發展？

Yes. Good question. I'll answer it in 2 ways and then let John give his commentary because I'm sure he will be scrutinizing every headcount in the sales budget. But the short answer is that we're where it makes sense to add headcount to drive greater sales, we are likely to do that, and I'll let John talk to that. But I think you rightly identified something that has been the feature of the company, which is increasingly if you look at not only in the U.S. but also in Europe, where we also have a growing business, a lot of our sales are done digitally and do not require at least at a minimum the level of sales involvement that our field sales force provides.

是的，問得好。我會從兩個方面回答，然後讓約翰發表他的看法，因為我相信他會仔細審查銷售預算中的每項人員配置。簡而言之，目前增加人手以促進銷售成長是合理的，我們很可能會這樣做，這一點我會讓約翰來詳細闡述。但我認為你正確地指出了公司的一個特點，那就是，不僅在美國，而且在歐洲（我們在歐洲的業務也在不斷增長），我們的許多銷售都是透過數位化方式完成的，至少不需要像我們現場銷售團隊那樣投入大量的人力物力。

So you're going to have a mix. And I don't think that we know quite yet whether there are adds, but I would be careful because I know our competitors tout their headcount adds as a precursor or a driver of growth that is not necessarily where we are at. We can grow without adding headcount, although there are places where we may choose to do that. I'll let John talk to that.

所以情況會比較複雜。目前我們還不能確定是否會增加人手，但我建議謹慎行事，因為我知道我們的競爭對手經常把增加人手作為增長的先兆或驅動力，但這未必是我們目前的情況。我們可以在不增加人手的情況下成長，儘管在某些情況下我們可能會選擇這樣做。關於這一點，我讓約翰來談談。

Yes. I don't tell adding expense to the business very frequently. So I think that we're constantly looking to make sure that we have the right go-to-market strategies and the right go-to-market coverage. We are certainly focused on using our vast data sets and analytics and digital engagement as much as we can. As Efrain said, I went back 5 years ago, our digital, if you think about just in the U.S., I mean, including international paychex.com and surepayroll.com, probably a 20-point improvement in the percent -- 20 percentage point improvement. And what we're getting there. We're driving analytics to make our sales force more productive, so instead of just cold calling across the market or inside on client base, we're using data analytics and models and triggers of behaviors of people engaging our systems to give them active list.

是的。我很少增加業務開支。所以，我認為我們一直在努力確保擁有正確的市場推廣策略和市場覆蓋範圍。我們當然會盡可能地利用我們龐大的資料集、分析和數位化互動。正如Efrain所說，五年前，如果我們只考慮美國市場，包括國際平台paychex.com和surepayroll.com，我們的數位化業務大概提升了20個百分點——20個百分點的提升。而我們正在取得的成果是，我們利用分析來提高銷售團隊的效率。因此，我們不再只是在市場上或客戶群內部進行陌生拜訪，而是利用數據分析、模型以及用戶行為的觸發因素，為他們提供有效的客戶名單。

So I think there's opportunity for productivity. And we're doing a lot more digital engagement inside our applications and actually creating digital experiences to drive more attachment of ancillary products and services. So I think when we're sitting down for the budget, we're certainly going to add sales reps engaging our strategic partners, doing things that we need to do to cover the market and the market opportunity we have, but we're equally balanced on making sure we're making the investments in digital engagement and driving productivity and using the data analytics we have to make sure we're making every rep as productive as they can be.

所以我認為，提升生產力的機會依然存在。我們正在應用程式內部進行更多數位互動，並致力於打造數位化體驗，以促進更多輔助產品和服務的銷售。因此，我認為在製定預算時，我們肯定會增加銷售代表，讓他們與我們的策略夥伴互動，進行必要的市場拓展工作，抓住現有市場機會。但同時，我們也會同樣重視數位互動和生產力提升的投資，並利用現有的數據分析，確保每位銷售代表都能最大限度地提高工作效率。

Fantastic. And then 1 last one. Did you say what your -- how much pays per control ended up increasing over the course of this quarter or this year on a year-over-year basis? I've got some investors that are under the impression that your pays per control might be up by 300 bps and then they're factoring in the ERTC and looking at the underlying growth and I'm not sure that the numbers are right. So just what did you see in terms of p per control for this last quarter?

太好了。最後一個問題。您有沒有提到本季或今年年比，每位控制人的薪資成長了多少？有些投資者認為您的每位控制人的薪酬可能增長了300個基點，他們把員工留任稅收抵免（ERTC）考慮進去，並關注潛在的增長，但我不太確定這些數字是否正確。所以，您上季每位控制人的薪資具體是多少？

So we didn't talk about it, but I will say that through the year, we have seen increases in p per control or we would say, checks, and it's moderated as we've gone through the year. So that -- in some ways, it's been a tale of 2 cities. The first half is -- at this point has end up being different than the second half of the year.

所以我們沒怎麼討論這個問題，但我可以說，在過去一年裡，我們看到每例病例（或者說每張支票）的數量有所增加，但隨著時間的推移，這種增長勢頭有所放緩。因此，從某種程度上來說，今年的情況就像是兩個世界。上半年和下半年截然不同。

And Mark, just keep in mind, remember, we're Main Street small business was a year ago in terms of their ability to hire people. They were understaffed, desperate to get people. So you've got the benefit of that hiring up. It's not that there's a deceleration. It took -- this has been an interesting year in terms of people getting and that's helping them getting staffed up. Now they're staffed up. I'm not expecting that they're going to have another -- a big group of employees, regardless of whether or not there was a recession or not, right? I mean they're fully staffed. And we would expect a moderation of the growth in the number of employees in our clients.

馬克，請記住，一年前，我們這些主街上的小企業在招募方面的情況是怎樣的。他們人手不足，急需人手。所以，現在招募工作已經恢復正常，這並非代表招募速度放緩。今年情況比較特殊，人們的就業情況有所好轉，這也有助於他們補充員工。現在他們的員工已經充足。我預計他們不會再像以前那樣大規模招募員工了，無論經濟是否衰退，對吧？我的意思是，他們現在已經滿了。我們預期客戶企業的員工人數成長速度會放緩。

Our next question comes from Eugene Simuni with MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 公司的 Eugene Simuni。

I just have 1 quick question. Wanted to follow up on the comment, John, you made on SECURE Act 2.0. Always very interesting to hear about how kind of regulatory developments can help you guys. So can you elaborate a bit specifically on what the opportunities for Paychex might be from that act? And then what is the time frame for when we might see that flow into your financial results?

我只有一個小問題。約翰，我想就你之前關於《安全法案2.0》的評論做個後續說明。我一直很有興趣地想了解監管方面的進展如何能幫助你們。所以，你能否具體談談這項法案可能會為Paychex帶來哪些機會？以及，我們大概什麼時候才能看到這些變化體現在你們的財務表現上？

Yes. Yes. So as we said, we're in our budget and we're really in our planning stages to figure out how we want to approach the Secure Act 2. We started some education, certainly within our base and we're trying to figure out in scope the size of the opportunity across the market and determine what investment we're going to do that. And that's something I think we'll talk about more in the next call.

是的。正如我們所說，我們正在製定預算，並且正處於規劃階段，以確定如何落實《安全法案2》。我們已經開始進行一些培訓，尤其是在我們自己的基礎群體中，我們正在努力了解整個市場的機會規模，並確定我們將為此投入多少資金。我想我們會在下次電話會議上詳細討論這個問題。

We're doing a lot of surveys trying to get where people are in their understanding of what it means. There's a huge education effort that I think has to go on, but I think it's a pretty powerful value proposition. Like I said, I think the secular labor problem is going to continue. I don't -- even we get to a recession, we just simply don't have enough people working. The labor participation rate is just not big enough to meet even a lower demand were at 3.4%, 3.5% unemployment.

我們正在進行大量調查，試圖了解人們對這個問題的理解程度。我認為必須進行大量的教育工作，但我認為這是一個非常有價值的觀點。就像我說的，我認為長期存在的勞動力問題將會持續下去。即使經濟衰退，我們仍面臨勞動力不足的問題。目前的勞動參與率根本無法滿足需求，即使失業率降至3.4%或3.5%也無濟於事。

And so I think the simple fact is small and midsized businesses needing to compete against large employers, we typically have mutual benefit plans. It's going to be a secular trend that's going to continue, and I think we're well positioned to do that. And I say that because that's going to create the opportunity for a 401(k) plan. And the SECURE Act 2.0, just to give you an idea, pretty much if you're an importer with between 20 and 50 employees, we could provide you and start up a 401(k) plan, and you would pay Paychex literally nothing because you pay us for a startup fee, you pay us for the other fees that we would have there. But you'd get all that back through tax credit. So it's -- basically, you can add the plan.

所以我認為，中小企業為了與大型企業競爭，通常會採用互惠福利計畫。這將會是一個長期趨勢，而且我認為我們已經做好了充分的準備。我說這話是因為這將為401(k)計畫創造機會。舉個例子，根據《安全退休法案2.0》，如果您是一家擁有20到50名員工的進口商，我們可以為您提供並啟動401(k)計劃，您幾乎無需向Paychex支付任何費用，因為您只需支付啟動費和其他相關費用。但您可以透過稅收抵免獲得所有這些費用的回饋。所以，基本上，您可以添加這項計劃。

And then if you want to contribute up to $1,000 to each employee, you can get that $1,000 as a tax credit as well in many circumstances. So I think there's not a lot of awareness. Look, we found the same thing with the ERTC. They're just a lot of small and midsized business owners, not even where these programs exist and then they have reluctance to participate because whether we want to like it or not, they have some skepticism about government programs and being on some government list.

如果你想給每位員工最多1000美元的補貼，在很多情況下，你還可以獲得這1000美元的稅收抵免。所以我覺得大家對這方面的了解還不夠多。你看，我們在員工留任稅收抵免（ERTC）計畫上也發現了同樣的情況。許多中小企業主甚至不在有這些項目的地區，他們也不願意參與，因為不管我們願不願意承認，他們對政府項目以及被列入政府名單都抱有一些疑慮。

And we're really positioning ourselves as kind of this trusted adviser to help them and help facilitate that. And so we're doing a lot of studies on it. We're trying to figure out how big the opportunity is and certainly, we think it's a great thing for small, midsize businesses. And again, I applaud the Congress and all the partisanship that goes on in Washington. It's great to see them have a program like this, and I hope there's more programs like this in the years to come to support Main Street small business owners.

我們正努力將自己定位為值得信賴的顧問，幫助他們並促進發展。為此，我們正在進行大量研究。我們試著去了解其中的機會究竟有多大，當然，我們認為這對中小企業來說是件好事。再次強調，我讚賞國會以及華盛頓的黨派之爭。很高興看到他們推出這樣的項目，我希望未來幾年能有更多類似的計劃來支持街頭小企業主。

Our next question comes from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。

Just a couple of questions from me. First, and I know we've talked a little bit about this both in previous quarters, but now, but can you recap for us a little bit why you think ERTC outperformed what you thought it would do during the course of this fiscal year? And then kind of how that contributes to you thinking that it could slow a little bit in next?

我還有幾個問題。首先，我知道我們之前幾季都稍微討論過這個問題，但現在，您能否簡要總結一下，您認為ERTC在本財年表現超出預期的原因是什麼？以及，這又如何讓您認為它下個財年的成長速度可能會有所放緩？

I'll just start, John can take from there. Yes, Jim, I think that when we entered the year, we thought that there was widespread understanding and knowledge of the program such that as we went further and further into the base, clients would have already availed themselves of the service. What we actually found was that they were anxious to hear and to be educated with respect to the program and the way it works and our ability to facilitate their access to the program made them constructive about wanting to participate. The level of understanding was lower than we anticipated. John talked about that for many reasons, and it turned out that there would be a much bigger opportunity coming into this year than we had realized.

我先開始，約翰接著說。是的，吉姆，我想年初的時候，我們以為大家對這個專案已經有了廣泛的了解，所以隨著我們深入基層，客戶們應該已經使用過這項服務了。但實際情況是，他們渴望了解這個計畫及其運作方式，而我們能夠幫助他們獲得計畫資源，這促使他們積極參與。大家的理解程度比我們預想的還要低。約翰也談到了其中的許多原因，結果證明，今年我們面臨的機會遠比我們之前意識到的要大得多。

As we get into next year, more and more time has elapsed, the ability to access the programs is running out. One, it relates to a period of time that now will have been 18, 24 months ago. And so as we round the next year, into the beginning of calendar '24, we think that the opportunity both within our base and in general, will have moderated. So the back half of the year, we don't anticipate that there will be as much demand or opportunity. And any you want to...

隨著我們進入明年，時間流逝得越來越快，參與計畫的機會也越來越少。首先，這指的是18到24個月前的情況。因此，當我們進入2024年初時，我們認為無論是在我們現有客戶群內部還是在整體上，機會都會減少。所以，我們預計下半年需求和機會不會像之前那麼多。任何你想…

Yes. No, again, I would just reiterate, I think this is a good example of how we're trying to approach helping our clients. I think when the program was first announced, we did a lot with the PPP loan program. I talked about that 9% of all of them paired with fintech companies to be able to facilitate that. And we've really developed a muscle there to build an automated simple solution and an educational package and program for both our strategic partners, CPAs and for our clients to go through.

是的。不，我再次重申，我認為這很好地體現了我們如何幫助客戶。我認為，當這個專案最初宣佈時，我們為PPP貸款專案做了很多工作。我之前提到過，其中9%的專案與金融科技公司合作，以便更好地開展工作。我們在這方面累積了豐富的經驗，能夠為我們的策略夥伴、註冊會計師以及客戶打造自動化、簡單易用的解決方案以及相關的培訓課程。

When the ERTC program came out, I think we thought they kind of knew about it, and we're just trying to do general education. And I think what we learned early on is that we're just not resonating. And a lot of people we thought they didn't qualify or were not sure or, quite frankly, by some of the just hassles and other challenges of participating in some other government programs, they felt like, hey, I don't need this right now, and I just can't -- I can't tolerate. I think we had 2 things kind of happen. One is our data scientist team began to look at actual data models, and we started to be able to pinpoint accurately be able to go to a client and say, we actually know from our data that you qualify, and this is how much we're talking about. So now you're saying, "Hey, I can get your check for $180,000." but you had to do with education, there was some more information, and then we made it a very simple process.

當ERTC計畫推出時，我們以為大家應該都了解，所以我們只是在做一些基礎教育。但我們很快就發現，我們的宣傳並沒有引起共鳴。很多人要不是覺得自己不符合資格，就是不確定自己是否符合，坦白說，參與其他一些政府計畫本身就很麻煩，他們覺得「嘿，我現在不需要這個，我實在受不了」。後來發生了兩件事。一是我們的資料科學家團隊開始研究實際的資料模型，我們開始能夠準確地確定哪些人符合資格，然後告訴客戶：「我們根據資料確定您符合資格，具體金額是多少。」 也就是說，現在我們可以說：「嘿，我可以幫您申請到18萬美元的支票。」但前提是您必須接受過相關教育，並且需要提供更多資訊，而且我們簡化了申請流程。

So one was we were now instead of broadcasting to all of our clients, we were going with a specific database analysis to a specific client and saying, we have a high degree of confidence that you spend 10 minutes with us and we get a few pieces of information, we're going to be able to get you a check that would be meaningful and worth your time. That's one.

所以，其中一項變更是，我們現在不再向所有客戶廣播，而是針對特定客戶進行特定的資料庫分析，並告訴他們：「我們非常有信心，您只需花10分鐘時間與我們交流，我們就能獲取一些信息，並為您提供一份有意義且值得您花費時間的支票。」這是第一點。

Then we had to overcome all the obstacles. I think simultaneously to that, interest rates started to go up and the cost of capital started to go up. And I think a lot of small business owners who said, "Hey, I don't need it. It's not worth my time. I don't want to be associated with the government program," and may get audited and most business owners, small business owners are concerned, an audit would put them out of business worse than anything else. So I think they were avoiding it.

然後我們不得不克服所有障礙。我認為同時，利率和資金成本也開始上升。很多小企業主會說：「嘿，我不需要。這不值得我浪費時間。我不想和政府專案扯上關係。」他們可能會被審計，而大多數企業主，尤其是小企業主，都擔心審計會讓他們破產，這比什麼都糟糕。所以我認為他們都在逃避審計。

I think as we saw that happening, now the receptivity and the demand that said, "Hey, I really need that $180,000 to bridge inflation, to be able to bridge the cost of capital to grow my business." And so I think we had those 2 things, us being more precise in terms of our messaging and getting our sales and our education teams out there. And then second, I think there were some macro pressures on small business owners that created that tailwind that exceeded what we expected.

我認為，隨著這種情況的發生，人們的接受度和需求都提高了，他們表示：「我真的需要這18萬美元來應對通貨膨脹，來支付發展業務所需的資金成本。」 所以我認為，我們之所以能取得這樣的成果，有兩個關鍵因素：一是我們的信息傳遞更加精準，銷售和培訓團隊也更加積極主動地面臨工作；二是壓力

That's really helpful color. And then just last thing for me is, Efrain, you talked about that at least at the initial planning stages, you think margins next year can expand some. If I reflect back on where you've talked about your margin targets in the past, we were kind of getting towards the upper end of that. Are we at a stage we can start completing that maybe the margin structure can even move above what you've talked about in the past? Or what would have to happen for that to be the case?

這個顏色真的很有幫助。最後一點是，Efrain，你之前提到過，至少在最初的規劃階段，你認為明年的利潤率可能會有所提升。如果我回顧一下你之前談到的利潤率目標，我們當時已經接近目標的上限了。我們現在是否已經到了可以開始完善利潤率結構，甚至超越你先前所設定的目標的階段了？或者說，要實現這一點，需要滿足哪些條件？

That's a good question, James. So -- and that's the benefit of listening to what I've said over a period of time. If you would have said to me persistently, we could be above 40%. And I would have urged caution because I didn't know whether we had all of the set of initiatives that could drive us there.

詹姆斯，你問得好。所以——這就是長時間聽我講話的好處。如果你一直跟我說，我們能超過40%，我會建議你謹慎行事，因為我不確定我們是否有所有能推動我們實現這目標的措施。

The short answer to that is I don't have a great answer. I have a sense of when we're probably getting closer to this feeling, I do think that you're right in saying that it's been reset a bit, and it's been reset a bit because of technology. So technology keeps giving us opportunities to automate things that we -- if you would have said 7 years ago, is that a chatbot could be as good or better than in answering 275 questions that are 90% of what clients want to know, I would have said -- I don't know about that. And short answer now is -- that number is not 275, it's probably 375 or 400 questions.

簡而言之，我沒有完美的答案。我感覺我們可能正在接近這種狀態，我認為你說得對，情況確實有所改變，而這改變很大程度上要歸功於科技。科技不斷為我們帶來自動化的機會——如果你在七年前說，聊天機器人可以像人工客服一樣出色，甚至更好，回答客戶想知道的90%的問題（共275個問題），我會說——我對此表示懷疑。而現在，答案是──這個數字不再是275，可能是375到400個問題。

So short answer is technology is going to set the limit especially in the tech services business. And so I think we probably have developed some more headroom with some of the actions that we have taken. And it's not just pure technology, but I think we wanted to become more automated efficient. A lot of the initiatives that John started years ago have paid these dividends.

簡而言之，技術將會限制發展，尤其是在技術服務業。因此，我認為我們採取的一些措施可能已經為我們爭取了更大的發展空間。這不僅僅是技術層面的進步，我認為我們也希望提高自動化效率。約翰多年前啟動的許多措施都已取得了成效。

Our last question will come from Andrew Polkowitz with JPMorgan.

最後一個問題來自摩根大通的安德魯·波爾科維茨。

Just wanted to -- just wanted to ask, you mentioned earlier that it was a [hot], fairly competitive selling season. So I just wanted to ask if you could share where that competition is coming from, whether it's new or entrance usual suspects like the regional and if there is anything to call out different from history regarding balance of trade?

我只是想問一下，您之前提到今年是銷售旺季，競爭相當激烈。所以我想請問一下，您能否具體說說競爭對手來自哪些方面，是新加入的，還是像區域性企業這樣的老牌競爭對手？另外，就貿易平衡而言，今年的情況與以往有什麼不同嗎？

I wouldn't say any new entrants, it's the same suspects. I think what we found was just everyone was more aggressive in trying to go after and grab market share, and I'm very proud of our sales team for really outcompeting -- the competitive metrics were very strong for the quarter and I think in a very aggressive market. And I would say every one of our market segments saw that. And I think that's going to continue. Look, I think very proud of where we are and where we're positioned.

我不會說有什麼新進入者，還是那些老面孔。我認為我們發現的是，大家都在更加積極地爭奪市場份額，我為我們的銷售團隊感到非常自豪，他們真的表現出色——本季度的競爭指標非常強勁，而且我認為這是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。我認為我們所有的細分市場都感受到了這一點。而且我認為這種趨勢還會持續下去。總之，我對我們目前的狀況和市場定位感到非常自豪。

I'm sure a lot of our smaller competitors and those that are maybe a little more focused in niches that aren't doing as well as the traditional small business market is doing. We'll maybe get more aggressive, but I feel good about where our value proposition is. And I think what we're finding is, as I said, I think our strategic partners, our clients, and I think prospects are beginning to put a premium on, hey, I want to be somewhere, what they are doing, they're doing it right and they're stable, and they're going to be able to have the financial capability to continue to invest in their products and services over the long term. And so I think there may be a little less chasing shiny objects as we go forward.

我相信，我們許多規模較小的競爭對手，以及那些可能更專注於細分市場、但發展不如傳統小企業市場景氣的競爭對手，都會面臨同樣的問題。我們或許會採取更積極的策略，但我對我們的價值主張充滿信心。正如我之前所說，我們的策略夥伴、客戶以及潛在客戶都開始重視那些真正值得信賴、營運穩健、且擁有長期持續投資於產品和服務的公司的實力。因此，我認為未來我們可能會減少對那些曇花一現的事物的追逐。

Got it. And I just had 1 follow-up on op margins. I mean for the quarter, this quarter, it came out a little bit ahead of the 44% to 43% you laid out 3 months ago. Just wanted to ask if there is anything that came out better than you expected 3 months ago relating to the expense line?

明白了。我剛剛還有一個關於營業利益率的後續問題。我的意思是，本季的營業利潤率略高於您三個月前預測的44%到43%。我想問一下，在費用方面，有沒有哪些數據比您三個月前的預期更好？

Well, I think revenue, obviously, was a little bit higher than we expected, a lot of that flow-through and drove higher margins and our expenses were in line with maybe a little bit better than we anticipated. The combination of that is really what drove better margin performance in the quarter.

顯然，營收略高於預期，這很大程度推動了利潤率的提升，而我們的支出則基本上符合預期，甚至略好於預期。正是這兩方面的因素共同促成了本季利潤率的提升。

At this time, I have no further questions in queue. I'll turn the call back over to John Gibson for any additional or closing remarks.

目前我沒有其他問題要問了。我將把電話轉回給約翰·吉布森，讓他補充或作總結發言。

Well, thank you very much, Todd. I appreciate it. At this point, we'll close the call. If you're interested in a replay of the webcast, it will be archived for approximately [90] days on our website. I want to thank everybody for your interest in Paychex. And everybody have a great day.

非常感謝，托德。我感激不盡。今天通話到此結束。如果您對網路直播的回放感興趣，它將在我們的網站上存檔約90天。感謝大家對Paychex的關注。祝大家今天愉快。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。