沛齊 (PAYX) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Paychex Third Quarter Fiscal 2022 earnings. (Operator Instructions) Please note this call may be recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Mr. Martin Mucci, Chairman and Executive Officer of Paychex.

大家好，歡迎參加今天的Paychex 2022財年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）請注意，本次電話會議可能會被錄音。現在，我很榮幸地將會議交給Paychex董事長兼執行長Martin Mucci先生。

Thank you, Katie, and thank you for joining us for our discussion of the Paychex Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Release. Joining me today, of course, is Efrain Rivera, our Chief Financial Officer. And this morning, before the market opened (technical difficulty) financial results for the third quarter ended February 28, 2022.

謝謝凱蒂，也謝謝您參與我們關於Paychex 2022財年第三季財報發布的討論。今天和我一起的還有我們的財務長埃弗雷恩·裡維拉。今天早上，在市場開盤前（由於技術故障），我們公佈了截至2022年2月28日的第三季財務業績。

You can access our earnings release on our Investor Relations website. Our Form 10-Q will be filed with the SEC within the next few days. This teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on our website for about 90 days.

您可以造訪我們的投資者關係網站查看獲利報告。我們的10-Q季報告將在未來幾天內提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）。本次電話會議將透過網路直播，並將存檔於我們的網站上，保留約90天。

I will start today's call with an update on our business highlights for the third quarter, and Efrain will review our financial results for the quarter and provide an update on fiscal '22 -- fiscal 2022, and then we'll open it up for your questions or comments.

今天我將首先報告我們第三季度的業務亮點，然後 Efrain 將回顧我們本季度的財務業績，並提供 2022 財年的最新信息，之後我們將開放提問或評論環節。

Our strong results for the first half of the year continued in the third quarter, as both Management Solutions and PEO and Insurance Solutions revenues increased by double-digit percentages year-over-year and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 20%. We continue to see positive trends in our key indicators and strong momentum across all our lines of business, driven by a combination of solid internal execution in a market-leading suite of innovative solutions uniquely designed to address today's HR challenges. This momentum carried through calendar year-end and selling season, resulting in record sales performance and near-record level retention. Our value proposition continues to resonate in the market, particularly in this challenging environment.

上半年強勁的業績在第三季得以延續，管理解決方案和專業雇主組織 (PEO) 及保險解決方案的收入均同比增長兩位數百分比，調整後攤薄每股收益增長 20%。我們各項關鍵指標持續呈現正面趨勢，所有業務線均保持強勁成長勢頭，這得益於我們強大的內部執行力，以及我們市場領先的創新解決方案組合，這些解決方案旨在應對當今人力資源面臨的挑戰。這一成長動能延續至年末和銷售旺季，最終實現了創紀錄的銷售業績和接近歷史最高水準的客戶留存率。我們的價值主張在市場上持續引起共鳴，尤其是在當前充滿挑戰的環境下。

And our sales results were broad-based, with double-digit growth in new annualized revenue across all lines of business: HR outsourcing, retirement, payroll and insurance. We continue to improve our traction in the mid-market space, which has benefited from the investments we've made in our technology and product suite.

我們的銷售業績全面成長，所有業務線（包括人力資源外包、退休金、薪資和保險）的新增年化收入均實現了兩位數成長。我們持續提昇在中端市場的競爭力，這得益於我們對技術和產品組合的投資。

Our client retention continues to surpass our expectations and remains near our record levels of the prior year, well ahead of the pre-pandemic levels. Our revenue retention remains at record levels for the year as we continue to bring in even more focus on our higher-value clients. Demand for our comprehensive set of solutions, including our integrated Paychex Flex human capital management technology and our comprehensive ASO and PEO HR offerings, remains high.

我們的客戶留存率持續超出預期，接近去年的最高紀錄，遠高於疫情前的水準。隨著我們繼續更加專注於高價值客戶，我們的收入留存率也保持在今年的最高水準。市場對我們全面的解決方案的需求仍然旺盛，包括我們整合的 Paychex Flex 人力資本管理技術以及我們全面的 ASO 和 PEO 人力資源服務。

Businesses of all sizes are facing continued pressure from supply chain and labor shortages, the rising costs of doing business and ongoing challenges with COVID-19. As staffing challenges persist, businesses are looking for integrated technology to deliver increased productivity, operating efficiencies and access to experienced HR professionals to help them navigate a complex regulatory environment and complicated distributed workforce dynamics. We continue to invest in our product set to differentiate us in the market and deliver solutions designed to meet the growing challenges of running a business.

各種規模的企業都面臨來自供應鏈和勞動力短缺、營運成本上升以及新冠疫情持續挑戰的持續壓力。隨著人員配置挑戰的持續存在，企業正在尋求整合技術，以提高生產力、營運效率，並獲得經驗豐富的人力資源專業人員的支持，從而幫助他們應對複雜的監管環境和錯綜複雜的分散式員工隊伍動態。我們將繼續投資我們的產品組合，以在市場中脫穎而出，並提供旨在應對企業營運日益嚴峻挑戰的解決方案。

Our most recent product launch introduced a series of enhancements designed to support both an on-site and distributed workforce, including an enhanced iris scanning time clock, which delivers a hands-free punch experience with industry best security, including both the iris and facial scanning.

我們最近推出的產品引入了一系列增強功能，旨在支援現場和分散式員工隊伍，其中包括增強型虹膜掃描打卡機，它提供免接觸式打卡體驗，並具有業內最佳的安全性，包括虹膜掃描和臉部掃描。

A new secure Document Management Solution, which allows clients to safely and confidentially store documents like employee vaccination status within the Flex platform, and a compensation summary, which allows clients to provide employees a full view of their compensation to promote retention, and enhancements to our financial wellness offering to help client employees more effectively budget, manage debt and save for retirement.

一項全新的安全文件管理解決方案，允許客戶在 Flex 平台內安全保密地儲存員工疫苗接種狀態等文件；一項薪酬摘要，允許客戶向員工提供完整的薪酬概覽，以提高員工留任率；以及一項財務健康服務改進，以幫助客戶員工更有效地制定預算、管理債務和為退休儲蓄。

Each of these enhancements builds on our award-winning Paychex Flex technology. Several industry awards provide the latest validation of the benefits of our innovative technology. We were recently recognized with 2 awards for our Paychex Pre-Check solution: the 2022 BIG Innovation Award presented by the Business Intelligence Group, and a 2022 Stevie Award for innovation in customer service. Paychex Pre-Check combines payroll, HR, time and attendance and employee self-service into a complete system of check and balances ensuring that work hours are never missed, pay rates are properly applied, paid time off is not overlooked and that pay is always calculated correctly.

這些改進均基於我們屢獲殊榮的 Paychex Flex 技術。多項行業獎項是對我們創新技術優勢的最新認可。我們近期以 Paychex Pre-Check 解決方案榮獲兩項大獎：由商業智慧集團頒發的 2022 年 BIG 創新獎，以及 2022 年 Stevie 客戶服務創新獎。 Paychex Pre-Check 將薪資、人力資源、考勤和員工自助服務整合到一個完整的製衡系統中，確保工時準確無誤、工資標準正確應用、帶薪休假得到妥善處理，並且工資計算始終準確無誤。

We have seen a strong response in terms of both client adoption and client results with Paychex Pre-Check. Our focus on helping clients maximize available government stimulus was recognized by Accounting Today, as we were awarded with a top new product award for our employee retention tax credit service.

Paychex Pre-Check 在客戶採納率和客戶實際收益方面都取得了顯著成效。我們致力於幫助客戶最大限度地利用政府刺激資金，這項措施也得到了《今日會計》的認可，我們的員工留任稅收抵免服務榮獲了最佳新產品獎。

We recently surpassed $7 billion in total credits processed for our clients. I'm very proud of the agility demonstrated by our IT and service teams to proactively assist our clients with these government subsidies to help them sustain and enhance our clients' financial position.

我們最近為客戶處理的信貸總額突破了70億美元。我為我們的IT和服務團隊展現出的敏捷性感到非常自豪，他們積極主動地協助客戶申請這些政府補貼，幫助他們維持並改善財務狀況。

Our mobile and self-service technology solutions deliver efficiency for our clients and their employees, and we have seen significant increases in Flex sessions both through the desktop and mobile devices with an increasingly -- an increasing proportion of the sessions, of course, done by the mobile app. Contributing to this growth is traction we are gaining with wearable devices. The use of the Apple Watch has increased mobile usage for our time and attendance solution. Obviously, this provides another safer method for employees to punch in and out and avoid exposure to COVID and other illnesses.

我們的行動和自助服務技術解決方案為客戶及其員工提高了效率，我們看到透過桌面和行動裝置進行的 Flex 會話次數均顯著增加，其中透過行動應用程式進行的會話比例自然也越來越高。穿戴式裝置的普及也促進了這一成長。 Apple Watch 的使用提高了我們考勤解決方案的行動裝置使用率。顯然，這為員工提供了一種更安全的打卡方式，有助於避免接觸新冠病毒和其他疾病。

I am particularly proud of 2 awards that Paychex has been recently been honored with -- for the -- our commitment to business integrity through our best-in-class ethics, compliance and government practices. For the 14th time, Ethisphere named us one of the world's most ethical companies. We are also on Fortune's list of the world's most admired companies. These awards acknowledge our ethical business practices, our values-based culture, innovation, social responsibility and leadership.

我特別為Paychex近期榮獲的兩項大獎感到自豪——這兩項獎項表彰了我們秉持商業誠信、恪守一流道德規範、合規行事和積極履行政府事務職責的承諾。我們第14次被Ethisphere評為全球最具商業道德的企業之一。此外，我們也榮登《財星》雜誌全球最受尊敬企業榜單。這些獎項是對我們商業道德實踐、以價值為導向的企業文化、創新精神、社會責任感和卓越領導力的認可。

We believe doing business the right way leads to greater success. Ethisphere agrees, noting that their 2022 Ethics Index, a collection of publicly traded companies recognized as recipients of this year's World's Most Ethical Companies designation, outperformed a comparable index of large-cap companies by almost 25% over the past 5 years. I give credit to the innovation, integrity and hard work of our employees who live our Paychex values each and every day.

我們相信，以正確的方式開展業務才能取得更大的成功。道德村協會 (Ethisphere) 也認同這一點，並指出，其 2022 年道德指數（該指數匯集了榮獲今年「全球最具道德企業」稱號的上市公司）在過去五年中的表現比大型公司同類指數高出近 25%。我衷心感謝我們員工的創新精神、誠信和辛勤工作，他們每天都在實踐 Paychex 的價值觀。

In summary, we are very proud of our performance during the third quarter and year-to-date, and I thank our employees for their tireless dedication during our busiest time of the year. Our set of innovative technology and service solutions provides industry-leading value to our clients, and leaves us well positioned for a strong finish for fiscal 2022 and continued growth into fiscal 2023. I'll now turn the call over to Efrain to review our financial results for the third quarter. Efrain?

總而言之，我們對第三季和年初至今的業績感到非常自豪，並感謝全體員工在一年中最繁忙的時期所付出的不懈努力。我們一系列創新技術和服務解決方案為客戶提供了領先業界的價值，使我們為2022財年取得強勁收官以及2023財年的持續成長奠定了堅實的基礎。現在，我將把電話交給埃弗雷恩，讓他回顧一下我們第三季的財務表現。埃弗雷恩？

Thanks, Marty. Good morning. Thanks for being on the call. I'd like to remind everyone that today's conference call will contain forward-looking statements, refer to the customary disclosures.

謝謝，馬蒂。早安.感謝各位參加電話會議。我想提醒大家，今天的電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，請參閱慣例揭露事項。

Let me start by providing some of the key points for the quarter. I'll follow up with greater detail in certain areas. I'll finish with a review of fiscal '22 outlook and some very, very, very preliminary thoughts on fiscal 2023. Our third quarter results reflect strong internal execution, as Marty mentioned, and continued improvement in key indicators: service revenue and total revenue increased 15% to $1.3 billion. Within service revenue, Management Solutions revenue increased 13% to $960 million, driven by higher client bases across our HCM suite, check volumes, revenues per check -- revenue per client, payroll funding and outsourced service for temporary staffing clients and ancillary HR services resulting from ERTC, which Marty just mentioned. Although the revenue associated with ERTC is substantially non-recurring, ERT has afforded Paychex the opportunity to continue to deepen its relationship with clients, increase revenue with clients and showcase its industry-leading suite of solutions for small- and medium-sized businesses. A significant opportunity remains both inside and outside our base.

首先，我將概述本季的一些關鍵點。稍後我會就某些領域進行更詳細的闡述。最後，我會回顧2022財年的展望，並對2023財年做一些非常初步的展望。正如Marty所提到的，我們第三季的業績反映了強勁的內部執行力，以及關鍵指標的持續改善：服務收入和總收入成長15%，達到13億美元。在服務收入方面，管理解決方案收入成長13%，達到9.6億美元，這主要得益於我們HCM套件客戶群的成長、支票量、每張支票的收入（即每位客戶的收入）、薪資融資以及為臨時工客戶提供的外包服務，以及Marty剛才提到的ERTC帶來的輔助人力資源服務。儘管ERTC相關的收入基本上是非經常性的，但ERTC為Paychex提供了繼續深化與客戶關係、增加客戶收入以及展示其面向中小企業的行業領先解決方案的機會。無論在公司內部或外部，都存在著巨大的發展機會。

And one thing I'd like to point out here is, there are a number of HCM platforms in the market. You all know that. But there [are] only a select few partners. In order for you to be able to access the opportunities that arise from having an HCM suite with bundled ancillary services, you have to be a partner, not simply a platform provider. There's only a few of those in the market. Our results demonstrate the power of being one, and we are one of the leading ones. So our results are not surprising to us.

我想在此指出一點，市面上有很多HCM平台，大家都知道這一點。但合作夥伴卻寥寥無幾。要獲得HCM套件及其配套服務帶來的各種機遇，您必須成為合作夥伴，而不僅僅是平台提供者。市場上這樣的合作夥伴屈指可數。我們的業績證明了成為合作夥伴的優勢，而我們正是領先的合作夥伴之一。因此，我們的成績並不令人意外。

Our clients want to know the difference between a MEP, a SEP and a PEP. They want to know what the implication of the ERTC is for their business. and they want to know what the implications of legislation like the Secure Act is -- how it's going to impact their business.

我們的客戶想了解 MEP、SEP 和 PEP 之間的差異。他們想知道 ERTC 對其業務的影響。他們也想知道像《安全法案》這樣的立法會帶來哪些影響——它將如何影響他們的業務。

We know that. We're experts and we're the partner that our clients look to for solutions to those issues. Our results demonstrate that this quarter. Now client base growth in the quarter resulted from both strong sales performance and high levels of client retention. In particular, HR Solutions business continues to benefit from strong demand as businesses look for more HR support.

我們深知這一點。我們是專家，也是客戶尋求解決方案的合作夥伴。本季的業績也印證了這一點。本季客戶群的成長得益於強勁的銷售業績和高客戶留存率。尤其值得一提的是，隨著企業尋求更多人力資源支持，人力資源解決方案業務持續受益於強勁的需求。

PEO & Insurance Solutions revenue increased 21% to $302 million. Our PEO business benefited from higher average worksite employees, state unemployment insurance revenue and health insurance attachment. Interest on funds held for clients decreased 5% for the quarter to $14 million, as the impact of lower average interest rates was partially offset by an increase of 13% in average investment balances. And obviously, this is one of the things that's going to change as we go through both the remainder of the year and into the next year. We haven't seen the impact of rising rates yet. We will.

PEO及保險解決方案收入成長21%，達到3.02億美元。我們的PEO業務受益於平均工作場所員工人數增加、州失業保險收入成長以及健康保險附加費的成長。由於平均利率下降的影響被平均投資餘額增加13%部分抵消，本季客戶資金利息收入下降5%至1,400萬美元。顯然，隨著今年剩餘時間和明年的推進，這種情況將會改變。我們尚未感受到利率上升的影響，但終將感受到。

Total expenses increased 11% to $713 million. The growth in expenses resulted from higher PEO direct insurance costs, headcount to support our growing client base and continued investment in our product technology, sales and marketing.

總支出成長11%，達7.13億美元。支出成長的原因包括：PEO直接保險成本增加、為支持不斷成長的客戶群而增加的員工人數，以及對產品技術、銷售和行銷的持續投資。

Op income increased 20% to $563 million with an operating margin of 44.1%, an expansion of almost 200 basis points. Our effective income tax rate was 22.3% compared to 24.2% for the same period last year. Both periods reflect net discrete tax benefits related to both -- to stock-based compensation benefits -- or payments, I'm sorry.

營業收入成長20%至5.63億美元，營業利益率為44.1%，成長近200個基點。實際所得稅率為22.3%，去年同期為24.2%。這兩個時期的數據都反映了與股權激勵相關的淨離散稅收優惠，或者更準確地說，是與股權激勵相關的款項。

In addition, the current quarter includes tax benefits related to prior year research and development expenses incurred in the production of customer-facing software. So we had an adjustment there, and that's part of our lower tax rate.

此外，本季也包含了與上年度在面向客戶的軟體開發過程中產生的研發費用相關的稅收優惠。因此，我們對此進行了調整，這也是我們稅率較低的原因之一。

Net income and diluted earnings per share both increased 23% for the quarter to $431 million and $1.19 per share, respectively. Adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 20% for the quarter to $419 million and $1.15 per share, respectively.

本季淨利和攤薄後每股收益均成長23%，分別達到4.31億美元和每股1.19美元。經調整後的淨利和經調整後的攤薄後每股收益本季均成長20%，分別達到4.19億美元和每股1.15美元。

I'll quickly highlight our results for the 9-month period ending February 28. Both revenue and earnings have grown by double digits for each of the past 3 quarters. Total service revenue and total revenue growth of 15% each to $3.4 billion and $3.5 billion, respectively.

我將簡要介紹截至2月28日的9個月期間的業績。過去三個季度，我們的營收和利潤均實現了兩位數的成長。服務總收入和總收入分別成長了15%，達到34億美元和35億美元。

Expenses, excluding onetime costs incurred during the prior year, increased 7%, so we've gotten very good leverage. Operating income and adjusted operating income were $1.4 billion, increases of 31% and 27%, respectively. Diluted earnings per share increased 31% to $3.02 per share. Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 27% to $2.95 a share.

剔除上年發生的一次性成本後，支出增加了7%，因此我們獲得了非常可觀的槓桿效應。營業收入和調整後營業收入分別為14億美元，年增31%和27%。稀釋後每股收益成長31%至3.02美元。調整後稀釋後每股收益成長27%至2.95美元。

Let me walk through the highlights of our financial position. As you all can see, it's very strong. Cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments now total over $1.4 billion and our total borrowings of approximately $806 million is where it stood at February 28, 2022.

讓我簡單介紹一下我們的財務狀況。如大家所見，我們的財務狀況非常穩健。截至2022年2月28日，我們的現金、受限現金和公司投資總額超過14億美元，而總借款約8.06億美元。

Cash flow from operations was robust in the quarter. It was at $1.2 billion, an increase of 34% from the same period last year. Free cash flow generated for the 9 months was $1 billion, up 36% over last year. The increases were driven by higher net income and fluctuations in working capital. We paid out quarterly dividends at 60 cents -- $0.66 a share for a total of $715 million during the first 9 months. Our 12-month rolling return on equity was 44%. Those are strong numbers.

本季經營活動產生的現金流表現強勁，達12億美元，較去年同期成長34%。前九個月產生的自由現金流為10億美元，較去年同期成長36%。成長主要得益於淨利潤增加和營運資本的波動。我們按季派發股息，每股0.66美元，前九個月共派發股息7.15億美元。過去12個月的滾動淨資產收益率為44%。這些數據都非常亮眼。

Now I will turn to our guidance for the current fiscal year ending May 31, 2022. The outlook reflects the current macro environment, which saw improvement in the quarter despite some disruption from Omicron. We've taken that into account -- we've taken into account the fact that third quarter results exceeded expectations, but have tempered our outlook given the changing macroeconomic environment, and we provided the following updated fiscal '22 guidance as you saw. Management Solutions revenue is now expected to grow in the range of 12% to 13%. We previously guided to growth in the range of 10% to 11%. PEO & Insurance Solutions is expected to grow in the range of 13% to 14%. We previously guided to growth in the range of 10% to 12%. Interest on funds held for clients is expected to be relatively flat year-over-year. We won't see the impact yet significantly of Fed raises.

現在我將談談我們對截至2022年5月31日的本財年的業績展望。展望反映了當前的宏觀環境，儘管受到Omicron的影響，但本季宏觀環境有所改善。我們已將此因素考慮在內——我們已考慮到第三季度業績超出預期，但鑑於宏觀經濟環境的變化，我們調整了展望，並提供瞭如下更新後的2022財年業績展望，正如您所見。管理解決方案收入預計將成長12%至13%。我們先前的預期為成長10%至11%。 PEO和保險解決方案預計將成長13%至14%。我們先前的預期為成長10%至12%。客戶資金的利息預計將與去年同期基本持平。我們目前還不會看到聯準會升息的顯著影響。

Total revenue is expected to grow in the range of 12% to 13%. We previously guided to growth in the range of 10% to 11%. Adjusted operating income margin is expected to be approximately 40%, up from previous guidance of 39% to 40%. Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be in the range of 44% to 45%, up from previous guidance of approximately 44%.

總營收將成長12%至13%，高於先前預期的10%至11%。調整後營業利潤率預計約40%，高於先前預期的39%至40%。調整後EBITDA利潤率預計在44%至45%之間，高於先前預期的約44%。

Other expense net is expected to be approximately $15 million. Our previous guidance was the range -- was in the range of $15 million to $18 million. Effective income tax rate is expected to be approximately 24%. We previously guided in the range of 24% to 25%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected to grow in the range of 22.5% to 23%. We previously guided to growth in the range of 18 to 20. This guidance reflects our intention to continue to invest in our businesses to help drive future growth. And I would just comment that in the fourth quarter, we intend to take some additional actions with respect to investment in the business. So that will temper the margin a little bit as we head into '23.

其他淨支出預計約1500萬美元。我們之前的預期範圍是1500萬美元至1800萬美元。實際所得稅率預計約為24%。我們之前的預期範圍是24%至25%。調整後攤薄每股收益預計成長22.5%至23%。我們之前的預期範圍是18%至20%。這一預期反映了我們將繼續投資於業務以推動未來成長的意圖。我還要補充一點，在第四季度，我們計劃採取一些額外的商業投資措施。因此，隨著我們進入2023年，利潤率將會略有下降。

Now comments on '23. We're currently in the process of preparing our annual plan. We'll provide guidance, final guidance for fiscal 2023 during our fiscal 2022 fourth quarter in June. But I want to provide a preliminary thought process around fiscal '23 as we enter the planning cycle.

現在談2023財年。我們目前正在製定年度計劃。我們將在2022財年第四季（即6月）發布2023財年的最終業績指引。但在進入規劃週期之際，我想先就2023財年的初步構想談談我的看法。

On a preliminary basis, we believe that total revenue growth will be in the upper single digits. At this stage, I'd call that somewhere around 7%. I would caution that there's a lot of work to be done to digest completely where the Fed is going to end up and how we position the portfolio. So there's still some moving pieces there. The other thing we would say right now with respect to operating margins is, we expect an improvement of about 50 basis points. You know that typically, that's what we're aiming for. We've had very, very significant operating margin improvement, but we're still committed to leveraging the business. So that's where we're at right now.

初步來看，我們認為總營收成長將達到個位數以上。現階段，我估計在7%左右。但我要提醒大家，我們需要做很多工作來全面了解聯準會的最終政策走向以及我們如何調整投資組合。所以，目前還有一些不確定因素。關於營業利益率，我們預計會提高約50個基點。通常情況下，這正是我們的目標。我們已經取得了非常顯著的營業利潤率提升，但我們仍然致力於進一步提高業務槓桿。這就是我們目前的狀況。

I want to call out 1 thing that's important. Other expense net is going to be in the range of $25 million to $30 million next year due to the absence of equity gains that we got this year. So we have a portfolio that we invest in had equity gains during the year. Those will not be in next year, at least we don't -- can't plan on them or anticipate they will be there.

我想強調一點。由於今年獲得的股權收益沒有到明年，其他淨支出預計將在2500萬美元到3000萬美元之間。我們投資的投資組合今年獲得了股權收益，但這些收益明年不會再有，至少我們無法預測或預期它們會到達。

And then the effective tax rate will be in the range of 24% to 25%. Of course, all of this is very preliminary. It's subject to revision, and it's based on assumptions that could change given the uncertain macro environment, especially as we gain additional insight into what the Fed actually will do. We'll update you again on the fourth quarter call. So with all of that, I'll turn it back over to Marty.

那麼實際稅率將在24%到25%之間。當然，所有這些都只是初步估算，可能會有所調整，而且是基於一些假設，鑑於宏觀環境的不確定性，尤其是在我們對聯準會的實際行動有了更深入的了解之後，這些假設可能會發生變化。我們將在第四季財報電話會議上再次更新相關資訊。那麼，接下來就交給馬蒂吧。

Thank you, Efrain. We'll now open the call to questions. Katie?

謝謝你，埃弗雷恩。現在開始接受提問。凱蒂，你有什麼問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Bryan Bergin with Cowen.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Bryan Bergin。

I appreciate you giving us an early fiscal '23 view here. So understanding you've got some outsized double-digit growth comps materializing this year. That's good to hear for next year's number. I guess more importantly, though, a question we're often getting is how to think about a sustainable level of growth in your business. You've had some peers speak to medium-term targets in the model. Anything you could share as a framework for how you're thinking about maybe longer-term growth based on what you're seeing in the market and what you've done here to drive that stronger sales execution.

感謝您提前展望2023財年。了解到貴公司今年實現了兩位數的超高速成長，這對明年的業績來說無疑是個好消息。不過，更重要的是，我們常被問到的一個問題是：貴公司如何看待業務的永續成長？一些同行已經談到了模型中的中期目標。您能否分享一下，根據您對市場狀況的觀察以及您為提升銷售業績所做的努力，您是如何思考長期成長的？

Yes. Bryan, first of all, thanks for the comments. I think that we start with, I guess, 2 things and then 1 further building block. With respect to Management Solutions, many of you heard me say this, we start with the premise that we're going to be at least mid, and we would hope over that time frame to get above mid- to upper-single-digits in Management Solutions. When we get to Q4, we'll call that out a little bit more. And then on the PEO & Insurance side, we expect to be around double digits. So we start with that premise, that yields a certain revenue growth that we think is going to be upper single digits.

是的。布萊恩，首先感謝你的評論。我認為我們應該從兩件事開始，然後再逐步完善。關於管理解決方案，很多人都聽我說過，我們最初的預期是至少達到中等水平，並希望在一段時間內，管理解決方案的成長率能夠達到中等偏上個位數。到了第四季度，我們會對此進行更詳細的說明。至於專業雇主組織（PEO）和保險業務，我們預期成長率將達到兩位數左右。所以我們從這個預期出發，預期營收成長率將達到接近兩位數。

And then the other thing is that our expectation is that we will leverage. And in typical years, we average at least 50 basis points. Some years we won't do that; some years, we'll do 200. So a year like this year from a leverage perspective doesn't come around that long. So I don't suspect there will be too many 200 basis points leverage years in us. But we do expect to continue to leverage going forward, certainly over the intermediate term. And just 1 other point on that. That's not simply an arithmetic exercise. It's a function of all of the work that's being done in the background around automating and making the business more efficient.

另外，我們預計會使用槓桿。通常情況下，我們的平均槓桿率至少為 50 個基點。有些年份可能達不到這個水平，有些年份則會達到 200 個基點。因此，像今年這樣槓桿率如此之高的年份並不常見。所以我預計未來不會有太多槓桿率達到 200 個基點的年份。但我們確實預期未來會繼續使用槓桿，尤其是在中期內。關於這一點，還有一點要說明。這不僅是簡單的算術運算，而是我們在後台進行的自動化和提升業務效率等一系列工作的結果。

I said earlier in the comments that -- we have a -- we are a leading HCM suite provider. But what makes us so unique is we do that at margins that are industry-leading.

我之前在評論裡說過，我們是領先的HCM套件提供者。但我們真正獨特之處在於，我們的利潤率在業界處於領先地位。

And so we work very hard on that. That's -- as we go into a planned process here, that will be a mantra that's repeated over and over. And we expect to be able to deliver on those commitments over the intermediate term.

因此，我們在這方面投入了大量精力。在我們推進這項計劃的過程中，這一點將一再強調。我們預計能夠在中期內兌現這些承諾。

And I think just to add to that, on the sales execution, we feel very strong this year. We've had great sales execution, selling season was very strong. Record third quarter sales performance. And as we've been going through it, really across the board. So we're really pleased that not only the marketing and brand work we've done, but the product development that we've done in innovation there has really, I think, hit the marketplace very well at a time -- we really timed it very well to hit the market with the HR support that businesses and prospects, current clients and prospects needed from a attracting and hiring and retaining talent, we really hit the right timing on that.

而且，我想補充一點，就銷售執行而言，我們今年感覺非常強勁。我們的銷售執行非常出色，銷售季表現強勁。第三季銷售業績創歷史新高。而且，我們一路走來，各個方面都取得了顯著進展。因此，我們非常高興，不僅我們在行銷和品牌推廣方面所做的工作，而且我們在產品開發和創新方面所做的工作也都取得了成功，我認為這些工作在市場上取得了非常好的效果——我們在產品開發和創新方面所做的工作也都取得了成功，我認為這些工作在市場上取得了非常好的效果——我們把握時機，為企業、潛在客戶、現有客戶和潛在客戶提供了他們所需的人力資源支持，幫助他們吸引、招聘和人才，我們在這方面確實住了最佳時機。

And then in addition to it, as Efrain said, this just doesn't happen. The thought that went into the employee retention tax credit, which has been very successful for us, we've been able to go to current clients and prospects and talk about how we can get this government subsidy for you. And those tax credits have averaged around $180,000 per client. And when you think of our average client size, it's a significant dollar amount that adds, as Efrain mentioned earlier, a lot of value. And then to say, hey, not only are we helping you with that, here's how we can help you continue to sustain your growth in your business. It's been very successful. And we don't -- that's how we play the game. So we feel we'll continue to be able to do that.

而且，正如埃弗雷恩所說，這種情況並非偶然。我們之所以能成功運用員工留任稅收抵免政策，是因為我們能夠主動聯繫現有客戶和潛在客戶，向他們介紹如何獲得這項政府補助。這些稅收抵免平均每個客戶能獲得約 18 萬美元。考慮到我們客戶的平均規模，這筆金額相當可觀，正如埃弗雷恩之前提到的，它能帶來巨大的價值。此外，我們不僅能幫助您獲得這項補貼，還能幫助您持續發展業務。這項政策非常成功。我們就是這樣做的──這就是我們的經營之道。所以我們相信我們能夠繼續做到這一點。

Okay. Makes sense. And just a follow-up on retention. So can you just share where unit retention landed here in 3Q? It doesn't sound like you have any change of holding higher post-pandemic levels, but correct me if I'm wrong there. And just 1 thing, are you seeing any change in the gap between unit and revenue retention as your mid-market and larger client push materializes?

好的，明白了。關於客戶留存率，我還有一個後續問題。您能否分享一下第三季的單位客戶留存率是多少？聽起來你們似乎沒有希望在疫情後保持更高的留存率水平，如果我理解有誤，請指正。另外，隨著你們向中端市場和大型客戶拓展策略的逐步落實，單位客戶留存率和收入留存率之間的差距是否有所變化？

It's a good question. I think revenue retention is a little higher. And so that we are seeing a little bit of a gap there, as you'd expect, just based on the size of the clients and that we're getting more mid-market success in both sales and retention.

這是一個很好的問題。我認為收入留存率略高一些。正如你所預料的，我們看到這方面存在一些差距，這僅僅是基於客戶規模，以及我們在銷售和留存方面在中端市場取得了更多成功。

The overall retention number is going to be better than pre-pandemic, at least that is experienced to be right now. It's better than pre-pandemic. We think that will stay through the rest of the fiscal year. And -- but not quite at the record levels. But we -- it doesn't surprise us. I think a lot of people held on through the pandemic, and we're trying to figure out where they were.

整體員工留存率將會高於疫情前水平，至少目前來看是如此。確實比疫情前好。我們認為這種情況會持續到本財年結束。當然，不會達到歷史最高水準。但這並不讓我們感到意外。我認為很多人在疫情期間都堅持了下來，我們正在努力了解他們之前的工作情況。

But again, things like the employee retention tax credit, those things have helped our retention, and we're trying to see if businesses, even under the pressure that they're under, can still sustain their business and keep themselves going. There's a lot of challenges out there, as you know, with supply chain and just inflation and so forth. And so we're a little cautious. But right now, we don't see that impacting them very much.

但話說回來，像員工留任稅收抵免這樣的政策確實有助於我們留住員工，我們正在觀察企業即便在當前壓力下，是否還能維持營運。如你所知，供應鏈、通貨膨脹等等方面都存在著許多挑戰。因此，我們持謹慎態度。但就目前而言，我們認為這些因素對企業的影響並不大。

Our next question comes from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

下一個問題來自安德魯·尼古拉斯和威廉·布萊爾。

First one I had was just on the pricing environment in the PEO business specifically. Are you seeing any noticeable change in the aggressiveness of your competitors when it comes to price? And if so, is that something that's had any impact on new business generation or competitive win rates to this point?

我的第一個問題是關於PEO產業的定價環境。您是否注意到競爭對手在價格方面變得更加激進？如果有，這是否對新業務拓展或競爭中標率產生了任何影響？

Yes. No, we have not. I don't see any real changes in that environment. We've been able to, I think, take good price -- get good price on our sales and have not seen any increase in the need to discount further or anything like that. So we've been very pleased with not only had sales at a record level, but we've been able to hold price as well.

是的。不，我們沒有。我沒看到市場環境有任何實質的變化。我認為我們一直能夠以不錯的價格銷售產品，而且沒有看到需要進一步折扣或其他類似情況的跡象。因此，我們不僅對創紀錄的銷售額感到非常滿意，而且也成功地維持了價格穩定。

Andrew, the other thing I'd add is, first of all, nice report on the PEO industry, by the way. The other part is if you get aggressive on price in the wrong way, in the PEO, you pay a ferocious price, but you don't get -- you don't pay the price in the next 6- to 12-months. If you discount your health care insurance and then don't price it appropriate to market, and of course, you know this better than I do, you pay a price down the road. So we are really, really careful on that point.

安德魯，我還要補充一點，首先，你關於PEO產業的報告寫得很好。另一方面，如果你在PEO產業定價策略上走得太激進，雖然會付出高昂的代價，但你不會在接下來的6到12個月內為此付出代價。如果你在醫療保險方面打折，然後又沒有根據市場情況定價（當然，你比我更清楚這一點），那麼將來你肯定會付出代價。所以我們在這方面非常非常謹慎。

I would say it's 1 of the 5 things we're probably most careful about is pricing all of that ancillary -- all of the insurance -- direct insurance in a way that's appropriate to the risk. And we haven't had any blowups. We monitor that closely. So we think there's a really compelling value prop in PEO that's going to continue to grow, but it won't be on the basis of selling cheap insurance. We were very cautious about that.

我認為，我們最謹慎的五件事之一就是對所有輔助險種——包括所有直接保險——進行定價，確保其價格與風險相匹配。到目前為止，我們還沒有遇到任何價格失衡的情況。我們會密切關注這一點。因此，我們認為PEO（專業雇主組織）具有非常吸引人的價值主張，並且會持續成長，但這並非建立在銷售廉價保險的基礎上。我們對此一直非常謹慎。

No, that's helpful. And part of why I ask is because some of the conversations we've had indicate maybe, maybe there are some other players that are being aggressive on that front. So not specific to Paychex. In terms of my follow-up, Efrain, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks towards the end that you intend to take some additional investment actions in the fourth quarter. Could you spend a little bit more time talking about areas of interest there? Just to give us a little bit more insight on what to look out for going forward?

不，這很有幫助。我這麼問的部分原因是，我們之前的一些談話表明，可能還有其他一些公司也在這方面採取了積極的行動。所以這並非特指Paychex。 Efrain，關於我的後續問題，我想你在準備的發言稿結尾提到，你打算在第四季採取一些額外的投資行動。你能否再花點時間談談你感興趣的領域？這樣我們就能更清楚地了解未來需要關注哪些面向？

Yes, and Andrew, I can take some of that, too. I would say there's certainly, as you can expect, from an employee retention standpoint, there's some actions we want to take and kind of move some of that up in the process. There's also more marketing. We're finding good response to our SEM and SEO investments on brand and also the products that's worked well with us for sales in the last 3 quarters. So we decided to continue to spend there.

是的，安德魯，我也能理解。正如你所料，從員工留任的角度來看，我們確實需要採取一些措施，並加快一些流程。此外，我們也會加大行銷投入。我們發現，過去三個季度，我們在品牌和產品行銷方面投入的搜尋引擎行銷（SEM）和搜尋引擎優化（SEO）都取得了良好的效果，銷售業績也十分可觀。因此，我們決定繼續加大這方面的投入。

And then some of the investment in IT that we would have planned typically to start into the first quarter, we can move some of that up, we feel, and accelerate it to get the products out even a little faster that are coming up. So it's really kind of across the board.

此外，我們原本計劃在第一季啟動的一些IT投資，現在可以提前，加快進度，以便更快推出即將上市的產品。所以，這幾乎是全方位的。

The other thing is we have been hiring. So we got a little low in the first part of the year particularly in service and with turnover and so forth. We have now accelerated that hiring and done well in the third quarter, and that will pick up some additional costs in the fourth quarter.

另一方面，我們一直在招募。所以今年上半年，尤其是在服務部門，人員流動等方面，我們的人員配置略顯不足。現在我們加快了招募步伐，第三季業績良好，這將在第四季彌補一些額外的成本。

Our next question comes from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的凱文麥克維。

Efrain, Marty, nice job. Efrain, thanks so much for the preliminary results in terms of outlook for '23. Is there any way to frame what type of Fed funds is in that 7%? I just -- I didn't get that. I know it's fluid, but is there any way to think about just initial thoughts on that?

埃弗雷恩，馬蒂，幹得漂亮。埃弗雷恩，非常感謝你提供的2023年展望的初步結果。能否解釋一下這7%指的是哪種類型的聯邦基金？我不太明白。我知道情況瞬息萬變，但能否先簡單說說我的想法？

We have some -- we don't have all of it in at this point in the preliminary outlook, Kevin. We want to get a sense of whether 6% is real, 4% is real, 9% is real, 8% is real. And I think we're all trying to read the tea leaves. Is it 50, is it 25, we have what we would -- I can characterize as a moderate scenario, certainly not the most aggressive. A lot of that growth is really more being driven by improvements in operating performance. And if the Fed gets very constructive, and we avoid a recession, that's part of what we'll have a better -- a clearer answer to when we get to June.

凱文，我們目前掌握了一些數據——在初步展望階段，我們還沒有掌握全部資訊。我們想了解6%、4%、9%和8%的實際成長率是否真實。我想我們都在試圖解讀各種跡象。是50%還是25%？我們目前的情況可以稱之為溫和的預測，當然不是最激進的。許多成長其實更多是由經營績效的改善所驅動的。如果聯準會採取非常積極的措施，而我們避免了經濟衰退，那麼到了六月，我們就能得到一個更清晰的答案。

That's super helpful. And then my other question is more, I don't know if it's longer term or whether it's for you or Marty, but can you help us understand the addressable market of Paychex today versus last cycle? Because obviously you've done a ton of investment. It seems like what you're able to offer your clients is much more robust today. So is there any way to think about kind of whether it's a dollar amount or just how you're thinking about the addressable market today versus maybe what it was coming out of the last cycle?

這非常有幫助。我的另一個問題更偏向長期發展，我不知道這個問題是問你還是問Marty，但你能幫我們分析一下Paychex目前的潛在市場規模與上個週期相比有何變化嗎？因為很明顯，你們投入了大量資金。看起來你們現在能為客戶提供的產品和服務比以前更強大。那麼，有沒有辦法從具體金額的角度來衡量一下，或者說，你們是如何看待目前的潛在市場規模與上個週期結束時相比的變化呢？

Yes. I think definitely from the product set that we offer and the integration with Flex in the digital approach to everything we've done I think it is definitely larger. I don't know if I could put a dollar amount on it, but I think our success in the mid-market sales in particular and the retention there over the last 3 quarters has really shown that we're hitting the mark, as I mentioned earlier.

是的。我認為，從我們提供的產品組合以及與Flex在所有數位化工作中的整合來看，我們的規模肯定更大。我不知道能否用具體的金額來衡量，但我認為，尤其是在中端市場銷售方面的成功，以及過去三個季度客戶留存率的提升，都充分錶明我們正朝著目標前進，正如我之前提到的那樣。

We really focused on the -- what would be the impact of coming out of COVID -- kind of the heavy COVID period, which is that distributed workforce, how do you allow the hiring, the onboarding, the retaining of employees who are maybe distributed or may be in the office, how do you handle all that? I think those products have really positioned us well to a larger mid-market base. It's not necessarily larger clients, but I think maybe a broader set of solutions that will hit a lot of different areas for clients.

我們真正關注的是疫情後，特別是疫情最嚴重時期之後，分散式辦公模式會帶來哪些影響。例如，如何招募、入職和留住那些可能分散在各地或在辦公室辦公的員工？如何應對所有這些問題？我認為這些產品確實讓我們在中端市場中佔據了有利地位。這不一定是指大型客戶，而是更廣泛的解決方案，能夠滿足客戶在許多方面的需求。

And I think at the same time, I think we positioned ourselves well that -- from what the client is really feeling coming out of COVID. It opened up an opportunity like distributed workforces to say, let me tell you how powerful the mobile -- the mobile app of Flex is. Look at how -- just take an example that our head of product management did for a team the other day, an investment team looking at products. Just the mobile app of time and attendance and how that works and how you can, of course, punch in and out, but how you can shift swap remotely, alert someone that you don't need this shift or you don't need that shift and open it up and take it. And all that is done on a mobile app for across employees. Very powerful, not to mention retention analytics and a lot of the analytics work that we've given clients. So I think long answer, I think we've opened up a lot more opportunities for us at a very perfect time to do that.

同時，我認為我們已經很好地把握住了情況——從客戶在新冠疫情後的真實感受來看，這為我們提供了一個契機，比如分散式辦公模式，讓我們來談談Flex行動應用的強大之處。舉個例子，我們的產品管理負責人前幾天就給一個投資團隊（他們正在研究產品）講解了這款行動考勤應用程式。它不僅能讓你打卡，還能讓你遠端換班，通知同事你不需要這個班次或那個班次，然後把空出來的班次讓給其他人。所有這些操作都可以在行動應用程式上完成，並且適用於所有員工。這非常強大，更不用說我們為客戶提供的留存率分析和其他大量分析服務了。所以，總而言之，我認為我們在這個絕佳的時機創造了更多機會。

The other thing I'd add, Kevin, is -- and this quarter really is a demonstration of that. When COVID started, we were doing a lot of consulting with our clients and not -- we weren't charging. It wasn't monetized. But I will say that in the midst of the pandemic, some of our competitors referred their clients to our website in terms of information. I think as we progressed through COVID, what we learned was that there is a tremendous amount of opportunity in the services that attach around the HCM suite. So ERTC is a great example of that situation.

凱文，我還要補充一點——本季的業績就充分體現了這一點。新冠疫情初期，我們為客戶提供了大量的諮詢服務，但當時並沒有收費，也沒有實現盈利。不過，在疫情期間，有些競爭對手會引導客戶造訪我們的網站以取得資訊。我認為，隨著疫情的發展，我們逐漸意識到，圍繞著人力資本管理（HCM）套件提供的服務蘊藏著巨大的商機。 ERTC 就是一個很好的例子。

Retirement Services promises to be another important opportunity going forward. And there will be others which we don't know a lot about right now, because they haven't been surfaced. What we're finding is that, that -- in addition to the technology that Marty highlighted, that technology opens another door for the opportunity to provide a set of solutions that clients are interested in once we inform them about it or once we partner with them.

退休服務有望成為未來另一個重要的機會。當然，還有一些我們目前尚不了解的機遇，因為它們尚未出現。我們發現，除了馬蒂重點提到的技術之外，這項技術還為我們打開了另一扇大門，讓我們有機會提供一系列客戶感興趣的解決方案，前提是我們向他們介紹這些方案或與他們建立合作關係。

And I would say our marketing, our product, our IT teams and our compliance teams also are all working very hard, and including -- I put in our legal team, too -- to uncover those kinds of opportunities that we can monetize. So there -- within the product set, there's 1 set of opportunities. And I think there's this growing amount of services that we can provide our clients that play off our technology, and that part we'll be looking to dimension as we go forward. But it's becoming increasingly important.

我想說，我們的行銷、產品、IT團隊和合規團隊，當然也包括我們的法務團隊，都在非常努力地挖掘那些可以變現的機會。所以，在產品本身，就存在著一系列機會。我認為，我們可以為客戶提供越來越多的、基於我們技術的服務，而這部分我們將在未來逐步拓展。但它正變得越來越重要。

Yes. And you got us excited to talk about this, now that -- adding to what Efrain just said, it's the use of the data. We really have maximized the use of our client data now. And like when the Paycheck Protection loans started, our -- the teams here figured out, hey, look, we use the data to immediately alert the clients that they could file for the loans and we could basically pre-populate the entire application other than they have to sign it. When it became, you could add other expenses in there, okay, just add the other expenses. But we pre-populated, if you're a client of ours, all of the data that we have in our system. And then -- and so 94%, 95% of those loans now have all been, by the way, turned into grants. So they've all been approved as complete grants. So it's also using the power of our data and as Efrain said, the employee retention tax credit was, we use the data to now go to our clients and say, hey look, based on what we have in our data, we think you can apply for this.

是的。你剛才說的讓我們很興奮，現在我們想聊聊這個——補充Efrain剛才提到的，關鍵在於數據的使用。我們現在確實已經最大限度地利用了客戶資料。例如，當「薪資保障貸款」（PPP）計畫啟動時，我們的團隊發現，我們可以利用這些數據立即通知客戶他們可以申請貸款，而且除了簽字之外，我們基本上可以預先填寫整個申請表。後來，當客戶需要添加其他支出時，我們只需添加即可。但對於我們的客戶，我們已經預先填寫了我們系統中所有已有的資料。順便說一句，現在94%到95%的貸款都已經轉為贈款。它們都已獲得批准，成為完整的贈款。所以，我們也利用了我們數據的力量，正如 Efrain 所說，員工留任稅收抵免，我們現在利用這些數據去告訴我們的客戶，嘿，根據我們掌握的數據，我們認為你們可以申請這項抵免。

And you fill out -- you sign a couple of things electronically, and we'll help you file, and we'll amend the returns and you're going to have $180,000 on average. That's a big deal. So that added a lot of value to the clients that said, wow, I didn't realize that Paychex could do all this for me and it added a lot, I think, to the retention and the brand value of what we could do for them.

您只需填寫一些表格，進行電子簽名，我們就會協助您提交申報表並修改申報內容，平均下來您能拿到 18 萬美元。這可是一筆不小的數目。這大大提升了客戶的價值，他們會驚嘆：「哇，我以前都不知道 Paychex 能幫我做這麼多事！」我認為這大大提高了客戶留存率，也提升了我們能為他們提供的品牌價值。

Our next question comes from Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑森·庫柏伯格。

Efrain, I just wanted to start by probing some of your comments in the prepared remarks around macro. I think you said something to the effect of tempering your outlook. But obviously, you raised the outlook, at least for revenue for the year, by more than what you just beat the quarter by. So I just wanted to try and reconcile that. Is that really reflected in the initial outlook for '23?

埃弗雷恩，我想先就你事先準備好的發言稿中關於宏觀經濟的一些評論進行一些探討。我記得你好像說過要調整預期。但顯然，你上調了全年營收預期，而且上調幅度超過了你剛剛超出季度業績的幅度。所以我想弄清楚這一點。這是否真的反映在你對2023年的初步預期中了？

Yes. Yes. That was mostly for people like you, Jason, who would ding me on why aren't you more constructive on Q4. As a number of you who know me, and who I've known you for now a number of years, we're going to point out about how we're looking at Q4.

是的，是的。這主要是為了像你這樣的人，傑森，你們會批評我為什麼對第四季的分析不夠建設性。作為認識我的人，以及我認識你們好幾年的人，我們將向你們說明我們是如何看待第四季的。

There's an element of caution in Q4. And if you look at where our fact set is in Q4, you can derive an imputed number for Q4. The point I was simply making there is that, as Marty highlighted earlier, given the year, we decided that it was important to continue to spend into Q4. So that was 1 element of it. So tempered a little bit from an expense standpoint. Our flow-through of what we think could be revenue in the quarter, that's one.

第四季我們採取了較為謹慎的態度。如果你查看我們第四季的事實數據，就可以推算出第四季的預估值。我剛才想表達的重點是，正如馬蒂之前所強調的，考慮到今年的情況，我們認為在第四季繼續投入資金非常重要。這是其中一個因素。所以從支出角度來看，我們稍微調整了支出。另一個因素是我們對本季可能產生的收入的預估。

And then second, when we were putting all the data together, I think the macro environment looked -- it was looking a little bit more uncertain than maybe it is right now. And I don't mean that something suddenly changed in the last week, but the environment is kind of volatile. And I just wanted to highlight that we're sitting here feeling okay, from a macro perspective. By the way, business-wise, we feel very okay, but things could change in the next -- over the next month. And so I just wanted to inject small note of caution to what was a really strong quarter for us.

其次，當我們匯總所有數據時，我認為宏觀環境看起來——比現在看起來更不確定。我的意思並不是說過去一週發生了什麼突然的變化，而是說整體環境確實有些波動。我想強調的是，從宏觀角度來看，我們目前感覺還不錯。順便說一句，就業務而言，我們也感覺非常好，但未來一個月情況可能會改變。因此，我只是想提醒大家，儘管我們剛剛度過了一個非常強勁的季度，但還是需要謹慎對待。

Yes. Yes, it was. Okay. Totally understand. I know I think the past couple of quarters, you've been calling out some tailwind from temp staffing clients. And I was just curious if you can quantify maybe how much of a lift that has provided to Management Solutions and your thoughts on sustainability of the tailwind?

是的，沒錯。好的，完全理解。我知道過去幾個季度，您一直在強調臨時工客戶帶來的利多因素。我只是好奇您能否量化一下，這究竟為管理解決方案帶來了多大的成長，以及您認為這種利好因素能否持續？

We -- it's modest, Jason. So many of you know that we provide funding for staffing companies. Just to make sure everyone's clear, we don't -- we're not in the staffing business. We're in the funding of the staffing business. The staffing business has been on fire over the last 6 months. And so our funding business has done very, very well this year. So it's still modest. It's a highly profitable business for us. But it's contributed in the mix of things that have gone well, and it's a long list of things that have [gotten] well this year. It's one of the businesses that's had a pretty robust recovery.

傑森，我們——規模不大。你們很多人都知道我們為人力資源公司提供資金。為了確保大家都明白，我們－我們不做人力資源業務，我們做的是為人力資源業務提供資金。過去六個月，人力資源業務發展迅猛，因此我們的資金業務今年也做得非常好。所以，我們的規模仍然不大。這項業務對我們來說利潤豐厚，但它只是眾多利好因素之一，而今年利好因素有很多。它是復甦相當強勁的業務之一。

Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Marty and Efrain. Efrain, I know 1 of the areas we always talk about is pays per control, and you've talked about how in this environment that's been difficult. I'm wondering what the trend has been? And what you kind of expect the trend to be over the next 6 months or so?

馬蒂和埃弗雷恩。埃弗雷恩，我知道我們經常討論的一個領域是按控制付費，你也說過在當前環境下，這方面比較困難。我想知道目前的趨勢如何？你預計未來六個月左右的趨勢會是什麼？

Yes, Kartik. I mean, you know better than most. If I would have said at this point that unemployment was at 3.8%, I think that most people would have thought I was crazy -- and that we were going to base a plan on that idea.

是的，卡爾蒂克。我的意思是，你比大多數人都清楚。如果我當時說失業率是3.8%，我想大多數人都會覺得我瘋了──而且我們會基於這個數字來制定計畫。

At 3.8%, look, it's been more robust than we thought. I'll let Marty comment because he just -- we just, I should say, released the employment index. And so we've got a little bit more -- he's got a lot more color on that than I do. But I would say you're getting to the point where it's going to get difficult for that number to run. It's been running positive and it's been running ahead of what we thought. But you're getting to a point where it's going to be difficult to continue to run quite as hot as it's been. So I'll let Marty talk a little bit [more about that]...

3.8%這個數字，你看，比我們預想的要強勁得多。我讓馬蒂來評論一下，因為他——應該說，我們剛剛發布了就業指數。所以我們掌握的資訊更多一些——他對這個指數的解讀比我更詳細。但我認為，這個數字很難再繼續維持成長勢頭了。它一直保持正成長，而且高於我們的預期。但你很快就會發現，很難再像之前那樣強勁了。所以，我請馬蒂再詳細說…

Yes. I think we've seen -- Kartik, in the index, this is really the clients under 50 in that index. But we continue to see strong job growth, and it has moderated the last 2 months. But it's still strong growth over last year. And I think as we've sold more into the mid-market as well, we're seeing probably a little bit better growth there from the number of employees because we're into a larger client size. And I think what we're trying to measure is, with the things that are going on now in the macro environment, what is that going to mean going forward? Like they haven't -- there's a number of government subsidies, but are we getting to the end of those?

是的。我認為我們已經看到——卡爾蒂克，在這個指數裡，實際上指的是50歲以下的客戶。但我們仍然看到強勁的就業成長，雖然過去兩個月成長放緩，但與去年相比仍保持強勁成長。而且我認為，隨著我們向中端市場拓展業務，員工人數的成長可能也略好一些，因為我們服務的客戶規模更大。我認為我們正在努力衡量的是，在當前的宏觀環境下，未來會發生什麼？例如，雖然政府有很多補貼，但這些補貼是否即將結束？

Now we still think, by the way, the employee retention tax credit will help us in next year as well and help our clients, because there's still a lot we can file for as we go back through the process. But I think it's just how much are they going to grow going forward? Right now, there's a bit of a bit of pessimism in small clients as to between inflation, supply chain, et cetera, should we be a little bit careful, but they have demand, right? Especially restaurants and so forth. So when you look at leisure and hospitality, job growth is up 20% -- 21%, the fastest of all of them, but how will that continue given inflation concerns and supply chain stuff that continues. So -- so we'll see. I think it's still positive. We're still seeing growth, but it's moderating.

順便說一句，我們仍然認為員工留任稅收抵免明年也會對我們和我們的客戶有所幫助，因為我們仍然可以申請很多其他優惠。但我認為關鍵在於他們未來的成長幅度。目前，小型客戶對通貨膨脹、供應鏈等因素有些悲觀，他們擔心是否應該謹慎行事，但他們的需求仍然存在，對吧？尤其是餐飲業等等。休閒和旅館業的就業成長率高達20%-21%，是所有產業中最快的，但考慮到通貨膨脹和供應鏈問題持續存在，這種成長動能能否持續下去呢？所以，我們拭目以待。我認為前景依然樂觀。我們仍然看到成長，但成長速度正在放緩。

And then, Marty, just on pricing. Every business has taken the opportunity to raise prices just because of the environment we're in, and everybody is faced with inflationary pressures just like you are. I'm wondering maybe what the strategy is for Paychex from a price standpoint as you move forward or at least for this year?

然後，Marty，關於定價。鑑於目前的經濟環境，所有企業都趁機提價，大家都面臨通膨壓力，就像你們一樣。我想知道Paychex未來，或至少今年，在價格上有什麼策略？

I think what we're seeing is the opportunity to be at the high end of our range. The range would still be in that same, but I think we'll be at the high end of that range. Our -- some costs are up, obviously, for us. But I think that the value of the products to our clients have increased is all the things we've talked about before. With the help that we're giving them through government subsidies, with all of the value we're giving them in HR, then all the product investments we've made. So I think that they will tolerate that quite well actually, because we're just going to be toward the high end of the range that we normally would have.

我認為我們現在看到的是一個提升產品線高端水準的機會。產品線範圍不變，但我認為我們會處於高端。顯然，我們的一些成本有所上升。但我認為，正如我們之前討論過的，我們產品對客戶的價值已經提升。這得歸功於我們透過政府補助為他們提供的幫助，我們在人力資源方面為他們創造的所有價值，以及我們所有的產品投資。所以我認為他們實際上能夠很好地接受這一點，因為我們只是處於我們通常產品線的高端水平而已。

Our next question will come from Eugene Simuni with MoffettNathanson.

下一個問題將來自 MoffettNathanson 公司的 Eugene Simuni。

Marty and Efrain. Two quick follow-ups. One, just on retention. I just wanted to clarify separating between out-of-business churn and competitive losses. Can you maybe elaborate a little bit on how those 2 things are trending in relation to the still near-record-high retention levels overall? Is it across both of those metrics? Or is it 1 of them, now picking up in terms of churn versus the other?

Marty 和 Efrain，有兩個後續問題。第一個是關於客戶留存率的。我想澄清一下，企業倒閉導致的客戶流失和競爭性流失之間的差異。你們能否詳細說明一下，在目前仍接近歷史最高水準的客戶留存率下，這兩種情況的趨勢有何不同？是這兩個指標都出現變化了嗎？還是說，只有其中一個指標的流失率上升？

Yes. Out-of-business is pretty solid. And so the competitive has not changed all that much really. And in fact, if you look at what our largest competitor, if you -- we always look at how much have we sold to their clients and sold them away from the competitor and how much have we lost. We're a net gain at this point. So we're not losing any more really to competitors, some -- some -- but for here and there, but really we're pretty solid on the retention kind of across the board as to how we're doing. Obviously, if we're near record levels, we're continuing to be pretty steady in where we are in retention.

是的。倒閉的情況相當穩定。所以競爭格局其實沒有太大變化。事實上，如果你看看我們最大的競爭對手——我們總是會關注我們賣給他們的客戶數量，以及我們從競爭對手那裡搶走的客戶數量，還有我們自己的損失。目前來看，我們是淨利。所以我們其實並沒有再流失客戶給競爭對手，雖然偶爾會有一些流失，但我們整體的客戶留存率都相當不錯。顯然，如果我們接近歷史最高水平，那麼我們的客戶留存率也會繼續保持穩定。

Yes. Got it. And yes, sorry, just to a -- so out-of-business in terms of like bankruptcies as we maybe move away from government stimulus, you're not really seeing that pressure yet in your business?

是的，明白了。還有，不好意思，我只是想問一下——就破產這類企業而言，隨著政府刺激措施的逐步取消，你們公司目前還沒有感受到這方面的壓力嗎？

Not yet. No. Not yet.

還沒。不，還沒。

Interesting. And then -- great. And then another quick 1 on the PEO. Just wanted to see if you can provide some color on what drove the 21% growth in revenue across the major drivers that you call out, which is worksite employees and [maybe] contribution of the Insurance revenue to that number?

有意思。然後——太好了。關於PEO（專業雇主組織），我還有一個問題想請教。我想了解您提到的幾個主要驅動因素，例如工作場所員工人數以及保險收入對收入成長的貢獻（或許也包括保險收入），這些因素是如何促成21%的收入成長的？

Yes. I'll start and Efrain can jump in. I think, one, we've had very solid sales, very strong sales results. And then with those sales results, we've seen great attachment to insurance, so better attachment for insurance products. I think that's very reflective of the need to provide insurance and the good benefit plans and opportunity that the PEO provides clients and prospects.

是的，我先說，Efrain 可以接著說。我認為，首先，我們的銷售業績非常穩健，非常強勁。其次，隨著銷售績效的提升，我們看到了人們對保險的強烈需求，也就是對保險產品的認同度更高了。我認為這充分反映了人們對保險的需求，以及 PEO 為客戶和潛在客戶提供的良好福利計劃和機會。

And then last, we've seen, obviously, an increase in worksite employees from the clients that we have. So they've been adding back employees. So you've really kind of got it across the board. You've got good sales, good solid retention. You've got better attachment to insurance and growing worksite employees of the existing base.

最後，我們顯然也看到，我們客戶的工地員工數量增加。他們一直在擴招員工。所以，各方面都呈現成長態勢。銷售業績良好，客戶留存率也很高。客戶對保險的忠誠度更高，現有工地員工團隊也不斷壯大。

Yes. And the other -- the only other 2 to round that out is increasing wages and increasing [suda]. So you got really, I don't know there's nice -- a lot more than a trifecta, but a lot of good things going on. We had a really strong PEO quarter. I mean, obviously, the results speak for themselves, but it was a good quarter in PEO land.

是的。另外——也只剩下兩項可以完善這三項了，那就是提高工資和增加[suda]。所以，實際上，我不知道該怎麼說，總之，好處遠不止三項，但確實有很多好事正在發生。我們的PEO業務季度表現非常強勁。我的意思是，很顯然，業績已經說明了一切，但就PEO業務而言，這確實是一個不錯的季度。

Yes. Got it. Got it. So sorry, so your worksite employee growth, was it -- how was it relative to this maybe 21% number? I assume it was lower since there were other factors, but can you give us a sense of where it was?

是的，明白了，明白了。非常抱歉，所以你們工作場所的員工成長率——相對於這個大約21%的數字來說——是多少？我猜實際成長率會低一些，因為還有其他因素，但您能大概說嗎？

Can you give us some of the worksite employee growth?

能否介紹一下工作場所員工的成長情況？

No. no. We'll update that, Eugene, at year-end -- we don't separate out PEO, so you're not disappointed, but we -- it's included in our overall worksite employees served, in our HR outsourcing businesses. But the numbers, it's -- both have been pretty robust growth.

不，不。尤金，我們會在年底更新數據——我們沒有單獨列出PEO（專業雇主組織）的數據，所以你不會失望的，它包含在我們服務的所有工作場所員工人數中，也就是我們的人力資源外包業務中。但就數據而言，這兩項業務的成長都相當強勁。

Our next question comes from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。

I wanted to follow up on previous question and some of your commentary. First, on your own customer retention. Obviously, great work there. And you continue to operate at record levels and not really seeing the softening that you had anticipated maybe a couple of quarters ago. But I'm wondering like how are you adjusting your planning for that long-term retention level? And what should we think that, that could baseline at down the road?

我想就您之前的問題和一些評論做個後續跟進。首先，關於貴公司的客戶留存率。顯然，你們在這方面做得非常出色。你們的業績持續保持在歷史高位，並沒有出現幾個季度前預期的下滑趨勢。但我很好奇，你們是如何調整長期留存率的規劃的呢？我們該如何設想未來的留存率基準線？

Well, I think right now, as I've said, it's a little dicey given, okay, we had some government stimulus that they were able to -- some clients were able to take advantage of. At the same time, you've got raising -- rising inflation, and then supply chain hopefully getting better. So you've got a lot of macro things going on at the same time.

嗯，我覺得現在的情況有點複雜，就像我剛才說的，雖然政府推出了一些刺激措施，有些客戶也從中受益，但同時，通貨膨脹也在上升，供應鏈也希望能夠好轉。所以，很多宏觀因素都在同時影響市場。

Right now, we'd expect that it's still going to be strong. I don't -- based on how we are year-to-date, we've said we're not at record levels that we had last year, but we're better than pre-pandemic. We would expect that we continue to be at better than pre-pandemic levels, that we have added a lot of value to our clients, and that it will continue to be strong. I think that's how we feel. But there's a lot of macro stuff that could go on there with -- again, with bankruptcies and things like that, that right now, we haven't seen. So our expectation going forward is that we're at a pretty similar level to where we are right now.

目前，我們預計業績仍將保持強勁。就今年迄今的業績而言，雖然我們尚未達到去年創紀錄的水平，但比疫情前更好。我們預計業績將繼續優於疫情前水平，為客戶創造了大量價值，並且業績將繼續保持強勁。我們就是這麼認為的。但宏觀經濟層面有許多因素可能會影響業績，例如破產等，而這些目前我們尚未看到。因此，我們預計未來業績將與目前水準基本持平。

Got it. No, that's actually really helpful context. And then as far as your investment that you've called out multiple times here and what you want to do, at least in the period in which you're giving guidance over the next quarter or so and then how we should think about that longer term. Can you talk a little bit about where you're seeing opportunities for organic investment and what's the time to payback on those, and what we should be looking for either from a product or service perspective as you continue to invest there?

明白了。是的，這確實很有幫助。關於您多次提到的投資以及您接下來的計劃，至少在您給出的未來一個季度左右的業績指引中，以​​及我們應該如何看待長期投資，您能否談談您認為哪些方面有機會進行有機投資，這些投資的回報週期是多久，以及在您繼續投資的過程中，我們應該從產品或服務的角度關注哪些方面？

Yes. I think it's definitely 2 main things, which would -- well, maybe 3. So you've got sales investment, so we'll be continuing to invest in our sales teams. We'll be growing the sales team in select markets.

是的。我認為主要有兩點，或許應該說是三點。首先是銷售投資，我們會繼續投資我們的銷售團隊。我們會在特定市場擴大銷售團隊。

But we really across the board see better opportunities for investing in sales. Two is marketing costs. We'll continue to invest in marketing. It's driving a lot of leads into the business, and that's the way people are obviously searching and buying now. So we're going to continue to see that investment go up, and it's not getting any less expensive to do it.

但我們確實看到，在銷售方面，各方面都有更好的投資機會。第二點是行銷成本。我們將繼續加大行銷投入。行銷能為公司帶來大量潛在客戶，而且顯然，人們現在都是透過行銷進行搜尋和購買的。因此，我們預期這方面的投資會持續增加，而且行銷成本並沒有降低。

And I'd say 3 would be product. We're going to see new product -- as you've seen from us, we've had new product releases basically every season. We kind of look at them as a season type of thing. And in the spring and summer season, we'll have continued new products that we've rolled out. We just released kind of talked about our winter release now going into the spring release. You're going to just see continued product enhancements to what we have.

第三點我認為是產品。我們將推出新產品—正如您所看到的，我們幾乎每個季度都會發布新產品。我們把產品發布看作是季節性的。在春夏兩季，我們將繼續推出先前推出的新產品。我們剛剛發布了冬季系列，現在即將迎來春季系列。您將會看到我們現有產品不斷改進和升級。

It is going to -- we continue to do a lot, again, as I said, with our data and from a digital standpoint and really maximizing the use of that mobile app so that we can build even more retention strength with the employees of our clients. They're the ones that are using that mobile app and always have, even more than our clients. So we're giving -- trying to give our clients' employees everything they possibly can on their mobile app to produce better retention for us and not allow their employer to leave Paychex or want to leave Paychex. Just like the time and attendance, just like punching in and out, shift swapping and being able to do things like -- when we hire someone, everything is digital now. Everything is paperless.

正如我之前所說，我們將繼續大力利用數據，從數位化角度出發，最大限度地發揮行動應用程式的作用，從而進一步提高客戶員工的留存率。客戶員工一直以來都在使用這款行動應用程序，甚至比我們的客戶使用得更多。因此，我們正努力為客戶員工提供行動應用程式上的所有功能，以提高員工留存率，並防止他們的雇主離開Paychex，或讓他們想要離開Paychex。例如，考勤、打卡、換班等等，現在我們招募員工時，所有流程都已數位化，完全無紙化。

From the time we post with Indeed, we have that automatic integration with Indeed. You can post on Indeed, the world's largest job site. That's brought -- that client is -- or that prospect or applicant is brought in without paper. When they hire them, it's brought on in onboarding. You're going to just see us continue to build out our HR suite where everything is around that mobile app to build strength and sustainability for the client.

從我們在Indeed上發布招聘資訊開始，我們就實現了與Indeed的自動整合。您可以在全球最大的求職網站Indeed上發布招聘資訊。這樣一來，客戶、潛在客戶或求職者就能以無紙化的方式被引進。當他們被錄用時，入職流程也會自動匯入。您將會看到我們不斷完善我們的人力資源套件，所有功能都圍繞著這款行動應用程式展開，從而增強客戶的實力和永續性。

Our next question comes from Mark Macron (sic) [Marcon] with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自馬克·馬克宏（原文如此）[Marcon]和貝爾德。

Congratulations on the strong quarter. Wondering a little bit on the new sales. It sounds like things are going really well there. I'm wondering if you can comment a little bit about, are you seeing any sort of change in terms of the source of new sales -- are you -- you mentioned your largest competitor and being a net gainer there. But relative to everybody else that the public companies know about or the public companies that are out there or also just the local and regionals and any sort of upshift in terms of on-premise systems. Both as it relates to your core-sized clients and then also the progress that you're making on the mid-sized clients.

恭喜貴公司本季業績強勁。我想了解一下新銷售額的情況。聽起來進展非常順利。我想請您談談新銷售額的來源是否有任何變化——您提到了最大的競爭對手，並且您在這方面取得了淨增長。但相對於其他上市公司，或其他本地和區域性公司，您在本地部署系統方面是否有任何成長？這包括您核心客戶群的情況，以及您在中型客戶群方面的進展。

I'd say on the small side, market continues to be really online. Even a little bit less from -- it's still pretty strong from CPA referrals and client -- existing client referrals. But more and more of those, we've seen -- and this is over the last few years, it -- maybe in the old days, the CPA would refer us and then the call would come right to us. The CPA may now refer us, but someone then looks and comes in through the web and to buy. So we're definitely seeing an increase from web sales, particularly in the low end, and you're going to see even more of those sales come in on a self-serve onboarding basis where the client can sign themselves up and come in search. So it's going to be -- and then of course, we've learned that with all of -- virtually all of the salespeople working remotely and virtually, that has been very strong for sales to come in and be sold over the phone or over the web.

我認為，就小規模市場而言，線上銷售仍佔據主導地位。雖然CPA推薦和現有客戶推薦的銷售額略有下降，但仍相當強勁。然而，我們看到，在過去幾年裡，CPA推薦客戶後，客戶會直接聯繫我們。現在，CPA可能仍然會推薦客戶，但客戶會透過網路搜尋並購買產品。因此，我們確實看到網路銷售額有所成長，尤其是在低端市場。而且，未來會有更多銷售是透過自助註冊的方式完成的，客戶可以自行註冊並搜尋產品。當然，我們也了解到，幾乎所有銷售人員都在遠距辦公，這使得電話或網路銷售非常強勁。

I think on the mid-market side, yes, I think we've done very well against the competitors that you know well and cover. And we've taken some back -- some clients back that have left us and found, as Efrain mentioned very eloquently earlier, that we have a total platform. You can buy certain pieces of it, but we have a total product set, not just 1 platform to have your payroll on and then connect to everybody else. We have everything if you want it, and makes it much more seamless. And we also can keep whatever components you want on your own and API into virtually anybody through a marketplace. So I think we've seen, yes, definitely a growth in the opportunity to take back some share from competitors, and we think that's going to certainly continue as we continue to add product.

我認為在中端市場，是的，我們確實比那些你熟知且報道過的競爭對手做得更好。而且我們也贏回了一些客戶——一些曾經離開我們的客戶，他們後來發現，正如Efrain之前非常精闢地提到的，我們擁有一個完整的平台。你可以購買其中的某些組件，但我們提供的是一套完整的產品，而不僅僅是一個用於管理工資單並與其他系統連接的平台。如果你需要，我們應有盡有，而且流程更加順暢。此外，我們還允許你保留所需的任何元件，並透過API介面將其連接到幾乎任何平台。所以我認為，我們確實看到了從競爭對手手中奪回市場份額的機會，而且隨著我們不斷增加產品，我們相信這種機會還會持續下去。

Great. And then can you talk a little bit on the PEO side in terms of the strong growth that you're experiencing there? How much of it is coming from upsells as opposed to new logos?

好的。那麼，您能否談談PEO業務方面，特別是你們目前取得的強勁成長？其中有多少成長來自追加銷售，又有多少來自新客戶？

I think you'd see a majority probably from upsell, but there's plenty of new logos now that are coming in, new businesses that for the first time are -- and especially in those states where we're prominent, the Florida, the Georgia, the Texas -- they're new to PEO and are not necessarily coming from ASO. But I would say a slight majority are still upsales, we're really good at that. They know us, and there's a great close rate there. Saying, hey, you're on payroll-only or maybe you're ASO, but you want to go to a better benefit opportunities, better benefit plans and go into the PEO where you're kind of in those shared plans and so forth. So I'd say a slight majority is from upsales. But plenty of new logos. We've really been very successful, obviously, if you're growing over 20% in the quarter.

我認為大部分成長可能來自追加銷售，但現在也有很多新客戶，尤其是一些我們業務比較集中的州，例如佛羅裡達州、喬治亞州和德克薩斯州，這些新客戶都是第一次接觸PEO（專業雇主組織）服務，而且他們可能不是透過ASO（應用服務組織）管道加入的。不過，我認為追加銷售仍然略佔多數，我們在這方面做得非常出色。客戶了解我們，而且追加銷售的成交率很高。他們會說：「嘿，你們目前只使用薪資服務或ASO，但你們想要更好的福利機會和更完善的福利計劃，所以想加入PEO，享受共享福利計劃等等。」 所以我認為追加銷售略佔多數。但新客戶也很多。顯然，如果一個季度成長率超過20%，那就表示我們非常成功。

Great. And then 2 sort of related macro questions. One, just in terms of the preliminary thoughts with regards to '23, how are you thinking about float balance growth? That's one. And then two, just a clarification with regards to the tempering of expectations. Are you actually seeing anything that's actually occurring on the ground? Or is your comment more related to just the expectation that there would be some reason for tempering, obviously, if rates end up going up significantly?

好的。接下來還有兩個相關的宏觀問題。第一，就2023年的初步想法而言，您如何看待浮動餘額的成長？這是第一個問題。第二，關於預期調整的問題，我想澄清一下。您目前是否看到任何實際發生的情況？或者您的評論更多是指，如果利率最終大幅上升，那麼顯然需要調整預期？

I think it's more of the latter, Mark, on that question. Look, hey, it's all fun and games to say that we're going to get all the benefit from 6, 7, 8 raises depending on your perspective, but you've got to be somewhat cautious about what the impact on the economy as a whole, especially on the small end of the market would be. We don't have any crystal ball. You have a better 1 than we do, but that's an issue that we need to realize because the Fed will take and the Fed will give and we're trying to analyze how all of that looks.

馬克，我覺得這個問題更接近後一種情況。你看，當然，說我們會從6次、7次、8次加薪中獲益固然有趣，但你必須謹慎考慮這對整體經濟，尤其是對小規模市場的影響。我們沒有水晶球，你比我們更了解情況，但我們必須意識到這一點，因為聯準會採取各種措施，而我們正在努力分析這一切會帶來怎樣的影響。

With respect to balance growth, I would say it's probably going to be low single digits to the mid-single digits at this point, depending on what's happening with wage inflation and the other factors that go -- and insurances.

至於餘額成長，我認為目前可能只有個位數到個位數中段的成長，這取決於薪資通膨和其他相關因素——以及保險業的發展。

At this point, that's what our thought process is. We've had a pretty robust growth this year, obviously, the recovery in wages and in clients, it's helped a lot. So it will moderate a bit next year.

目前，我們就是這麼想的。今年我們的成長相當強勁，薪資和客戶數量的復甦顯然起到了很大的推動作用。所以明年成長速度會有所放緩。

Our next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天進。

Great results and profitability. I wanted to quickly if you don't mind, just 1 question, ask about existing versus new client revenue growth? I'm just thinking about what you said, I think, Efrain, you said it, or maybe it was Marty. Double-digit annualized contract value growth, sounded like it was broad-based. So just trying to disaggregate that comment with the growth outlook thinking about it between new client versus existing client, if that makes sense. Just because it seems like your first look at '23 is pretty consistent with what we typically would observe. But I just want to make sure the composition isn't different.

業績和盈利能力都很棒。如果您不介意的話，我想快速問一個問題，關於現有客戶和新客戶的收入成長？我一直在想您之前說過的話，好像是Efrain說的，也可能是Marty說的。合約價值年化成長率達到兩位數，聽起來像是普遍成長。所以我想把這個成長前景和新客戶以及現有客戶的成長分開來看，不知道這樣說您是否明白。因為您目前對2023年的預測和我們通常觀察到的情況基本上一致。但我只是想確認一下構成方面是否有所不同。

Yes. So let me take that, Tien-Tsin. So I think it is pretty consistent with what we observed. We typically are going to generate about half of our new logos, if you will, from newly formed businesses. We expect that to continue going into next year.

是的。那麼，讓我來解釋一下，田進。我認為這與我們觀察到的情況基本一致。通常情況下，我們大約一半的新標誌都來自新成立的企業。我們預計這種情況明年還會持續。

And then with the normal amount of upsell and cross-sell and growth in revenue per client that we end up getting. So obviously the net adds will come, half of it will come from newly formed business -- or new sales will come from newly formed businesses. And then there was 1 thing that I highlighted that's important is -- and I think it was in response to Kevin's question. We're seeing more opportunity to add revenue online as we see more opportunity for the kinds of services that, for example, ERTC and [wow]. So it's -- it's easy to overlook that, but it's part of the way, as Marty said, it's part of who we are.

然後，隨著正常的追加銷售、交叉銷售以及每位客戶收入的成長，我們最終會獲得可觀的收益。顯然，淨新增客戶會隨之而來，其中一半將來自新成立的業務——或者說，新銷售額將來自新成立的業務。還有一點我強調了，這一點很重要——我認為這是為了回答凱文的問題。我們看到，隨著ERTC等服務需求的增加，在線上增加收入的機會也越來越多。這一點很容易被忽視，但正如馬蒂所說，這是我們業務模式的一部分，也是我們業務的一部分。

Perfect. That's what I needed. Because it looks like you're -- despite the tough comp get sort of right back on what we usually want to expect from Paychex, so.

太好了，這正是我需要的。因為看起來你們——儘管競爭激烈——很快就恢復了我們通常對Paychex的期望。

Our next question and our final question for today is from Peter Christiansen with Citi.

我們今天的最後一個問題，也是下一個問題，來自花旗銀行的彼得·克里斯蒂安森。

Great job, guys. Yes, to the degree that you can tell, are you winning new business from previous like self-filers still? Is that still a reasonable pool to draw from on the new sales front?

幹得漂亮，夥計們！是的，就你們目前所了解的情況來看，你們是否仍能從以前的自助報稅用戶那裡贏得新業務？這部分客戶群在新銷售方面是否仍是一個合理的目標？

Oh, it is, definitely. I mean there's still plenty of small businesses on the small side that are -- have tried to continue to do things themselves. And I do think over the last 2 years, that's become even more difficult, and they're losing a lot of opportunity by not going with someone. It's -- so yes, that's still a great opportunity. It's still a big piece of the pie that's available out there that -- and you're making it easier for them to sign up and do everything themselves, but do it in an automated fashion with someone who has over 200 compliance experts to make sure they're doing it right. So yes, that's still a good opportunity for us. And that's why, as Efrain said, half our sales are coming from new businesses and many of those new businesses may be new, but they might have even tried to do something themselves for a few months or a year before they went to someone like us.

哦，當然。我的意思是，仍然有很多小型企業——規模較小的企業——一直在嘗試自己處理所有事情。而且我認為，在過去的兩年裡，這種情況變得更加困難，他們因為沒有選擇與專業人士合作而錯失了許多機會。所以，是的，這仍然是一個絕佳的機會。市場上仍然有很大一部分市場——我們讓他們更容易註冊並自行完成所有操作，但這一切都是以自動化的方式進行的，由我們擁有超過200名合規專家來確保他們操作正確。所以，是的，這對我們來說仍然是一個很好的機會。正如Efrain所說，這就是為什麼我們一半的銷售額都來自新企業，而這些新企業中的許多可能是新成立的，但在找到像我們這樣的公司之前，他們可能已經嘗試自己處理一些事情幾個月甚至一年了。

That's interesting. And then -- any thoughts on industry consolidation at this point, particularly from, I guess, the more private regional players? Do you see any trends evolving there? And then maybe juxtapose that with how you're thinking about the M&A landscape for Paychex.

這很有意思。那麼，您對目前的產業整合有何看法？特別是那些較私營的區域性企業？您認為這方面有哪些發展趨勢？另外，您能否結合Paychex的併購前景，談談您的看法？

Yes. I think we've seen some of the smallest ones consolidate. It's just too difficult today for many of them to provide the product suite, too, that people are demanding. And the online presence, the mobile app, the constant increase in product development. They're just not able to keep up -- and all the compliance. I mean -- and the government is not getting any easier to deal with. They want to -- particularly the IRS, they're underbudgeted, they're understaffed. So it's difficult for smaller payroll in particular companies, to keep up with someone like us that has the powerful team behind the products. So I think there is some consolidation there. I wouldn't say any on the larger ones just yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if at some point, it just becomes too difficult to keep up with the investment.

是的。我認為我們已經看到一些規模最小的公司開始合併了。如今，對許多公司來說，要提供人們所需的全套產品實在太難了。還有線上業務、行動應用、不斷成長的產品研發需求等等。他們根本跟不上——還有各種合規要求。我的意思是——而且政府部門也越來越難對付。他們——尤其是美國國稅局——預算不足，人手短缺。所以，對於規模較小的公司來說，很難跟上像我們這樣擁有強大產品團隊的公司。因此，我認為產業內會出現一些整合。我目前還不能斷言大型公司也會合併，但如果將來某個時候，他們因為難以持續投入資金而合併，我也不會感到驚訝。

From an M&A standpoint, there's still plenty of things that we're looking at in PEOs, payroll, everything and a lot of other opportunities. We're finding opportunities. They're not always panning out. We're very selective. Obviously, we've had a great success rate over the -- particularly over the last 10 years on acquisitions. And we're very careful about what we add, and that the valuation makes sense. And right now, the valuations are still a little lofty, I'd say.

從併購的角度來看，我們仍在關注PEO（專業雇主組織）、薪資管理等各個領域以及其他許多機會。我們一直在尋找機會，但並非每次都能成功。我們非常謹慎地進行選擇。顯然，我們過去十年，尤其是在收購方面，取得了很高的成功率。我們對收購目標的選擇非常謹慎，確保估值合理。我認為，目前的估值仍然偏高。

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn it back to our presenters for any additional and closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題了。現在我將把時間交還給各位發言人，請他們作補充或總結發言。

Thank you. At this point, we'll close the call. If you're interested in replaying the webcast, it will be archived for approximately 90 days. Thank you for taking the time to participate in our third quarter earnings release conference call, and for your interest in Paychex. I hope you all continue to remain safe and healthy. Thank you.

謝謝。本次電話會議到此結束。若您有興趣回放本次網路直播，我們將存檔約90天。感謝您抽空參加我們第三季財報電話會議，也感謝您對Paychex的關注。祝大家平安健康。謝謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may now disconnect.

謝謝大家。女士們、先生們，今天的活動到此結束。你們現在可以斷開連結了。