沛齊 (PAYX) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Paychex Third Quarter Fiscal 2022 earnings. (Operator Instructions) Please note this call may be recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Mr. Martin Mucci, Chairman and Executive Officer of Paychex.

大家好，歡迎收看今天的 Paychex 2022 財年第三季度收益。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話可能會被錄音。現在我很高興將會議轉交給 Paychex 董事長兼執行官 Martin Mucci 先生。

Thank you, Katie, and thank you for joining us for our discussion of the Paychex Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Release. Joining me today, of course, is Efrain Rivera, our Chief Financial Officer. And this morning, before the market opened (technical difficulty) financial results for the third quarter ended February 28, 2022.

謝謝你，凱蒂，感謝你加入我們對 Paychex 2022 財年第三季度收益發布的討論。當然，今天加入我的是我們的首席財務官 Efrain Rivera。今天上午，在市場開盤前（技術難度）截至 2022 年 2 月 28 日的第三季度財務業績。

You can access our earnings release on our Investor Relations website. Our Form 10-Q will be filed with the SEC within the next few days. This teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on our website for about 90 days.

您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上訪問我們的收益報告。我們的 10-Q 表格將在接下來的幾天內提交給 SEC。本次電話會議正在互聯網上播出，並將在我們的網站上存檔和使用約 90 天。

I will start today's call with an update on our business highlights for the third quarter, and Efrain will review our financial results for the quarter and provide an update on fiscal '22 -- fiscal 2022, and then we'll open it up for your questions or comments.

我將在今天的電話會議開始時更新我們第三季度的業務亮點，Efrain 將審查我們本季度的財務業績並提供關於 22 財年 - 2022 財年的最新信息，然後我們將為您開放問題或意見。

Our strong results for the first half of the year continued in the third quarter, as both Management Solutions and PEO and Insurance Solutions revenues increased by double-digit percentages year-over-year and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 20%. We continue to see positive trends in our key indicators and strong momentum across all our lines of business, driven by a combination of solid internal execution in a market-leading suite of innovative solutions uniquely designed to address today's HR challenges. This momentum carried through calendar year-end and selling season, resulting in record sales performance and near-record level retention. Our value proposition continues to resonate in the market, particularly in this challenging environment.

我們上半年的強勁業績在第三季度繼續保持，管理解決方案、PEO 和保險解決方案的收入均同比增長兩位數，調整後的攤薄每股收益增長 20%。我們繼續看到關鍵指標的積極趨勢和所有業務線的強勁勢頭，這得益於堅實的內部執行與市場領先的創新解決方案套件的結合，這些解決方案專為應對當今的人力資源挑戰而設計。這種勢頭貫穿了日曆年末和銷售旺季，創造了創紀錄的銷售業績和接近創紀錄水平的留存率。我們的價值主張繼續在市場上引起共鳴，尤其是在這個充滿挑戰的環境中。

And our sales results were broad-based, with double-digit growth in new annualized revenue across all lines of business: HR outsourcing, retirement, payroll and insurance. We continue to improve our traction in the mid-market space, which has benefited from the investments we've made in our technology and product suite.

我們的銷售業績基礎廣泛，所有業務領域的新年化收入均實現兩位數增長：人力資源外包、退休、工資和保險。我們繼續提高我們在中端市場領域的吸引力，這得益於我們對技術和產品套件的投資。

Our client retention continues to surpass our expectations and remains near our record levels of the prior year, well ahead of the pre-pandemic levels. Our revenue retention remains at record levels for the year as we continue to bring in even more focus on our higher-value clients. Demand for our comprehensive set of solutions, including our integrated Paychex Flex human capital management technology and our comprehensive ASO and PEO HR offerings, remains high.

我們的客戶保留率繼續超出我們的預期，並保持在我們去年的創紀錄水平附近，遠高於大流行前的水平。隨著我們繼續更加關注我們的高價值客戶，我們今年的收入保留率保持在創紀錄水平。對我們的綜合解決方案集（包括我們的集成 Paychex Flex 人力資本管理技術以及我們全面的 ASO 和 PEO 人力資源產品）的需求仍然很高。

Businesses of all sizes are facing continued pressure from supply chain and labor shortages, the rising costs of doing business and ongoing challenges with COVID-19. As staffing challenges persist, businesses are looking for integrated technology to deliver increased productivity, operating efficiencies and access to experienced HR professionals to help them navigate a complex regulatory environment and complicated distributed workforce dynamics. We continue to invest in our product set to differentiate us in the market and deliver solutions designed to meet the growing challenges of running a business.

各種規模的企業都面臨著來自供應鍊和勞動力短缺、經營成本上升以及 COVID-19 持續挑戰的持續壓力。隨著人員配備挑戰的持續存在，企業正在尋找集成技術來提高生產力、運營效率並獲得經驗豐富的人力資源專業人員，以幫助他們應對複雜的監管環境和復雜的分佈式勞動力動態。我們將繼續投資於我們的產品組合，以使我們在市場上脫穎而出，並提供旨在應對業務運營中日益增長的挑戰的解決方案。

Our most recent product launch introduced a series of enhancements designed to support both an on-site and distributed workforce, including an enhanced iris scanning time clock, which delivers a hands-free punch experience with industry best security, including both the iris and facial scanning.

我們最近推出的產品推出了一系列增強功能，旨在支持現場和分佈式工作人員，包括增強的虹膜掃描時鐘，它提供具有行業最佳安全性的免提打卡體驗，包括虹膜和麵部掃描.

A new secure Document Management Solution, which allows clients to safely and confidentially store documents like employee vaccination status within the Flex platform, and a compensation summary, which allows clients to provide employees a full view of their compensation to promote retention, and enhancements to our financial wellness offering to help client employees more effectively budget, manage debt and save for retirement.

一種新的安全文檔管理解決方案，允許客戶在 Flex 平台內安全、保密地存儲員工疫苗接種狀態等文檔，以及薪酬摘要，允許客戶向員工提供他們的薪酬的完整視圖，以促進保留，並增強我們的財務健康產品可幫助客戶員工更有效地進行預算、管理債務和為退休儲蓄。

Each of these enhancements builds on our award-winning Paychex Flex technology. Several industry awards provide the latest validation of the benefits of our innovative technology. We were recently recognized with 2 awards for our Paychex Pre-Check solution: the 2022 BIG Innovation Award presented by the Business Intelligence Group, and a 2022 Stevie Award for innovation in customer service. Paychex Pre-Check combines payroll, HR, time and attendance and employee self-service into a complete system of check and balances ensuring that work hours are never missed, pay rates are properly applied, paid time off is not overlooked and that pay is always calculated correctly.

這些增強中的每一項都建立在我們屢獲殊榮的 Paychex Flex 技術之上。多項行業獎項提供了對我們創新技術優勢的最新驗證。最近，我們的 Paychex 預檢查解決方案獲得了 2 個獎項：商業智能集團頒發的 2022 年 BIG 創新獎和 2022 年史蒂夫客戶服務創新獎。 Paychex Pre-Check 將工資單、人力資源、考勤和員工自助服務結合到一個完整的檢查和平衡系統中，確保永遠不會錯過工作時間、正確應用工資率、不會忽視帶薪休假並且工資始終計算正確。

We have seen a strong response in terms of both client adoption and client results with Paychex Pre-Check. Our focus on helping clients maximize available government stimulus was recognized by Accounting Today, as we were awarded with a top new product award for our employee retention tax credit service.

我們已經看到 Paychex 預檢查在客戶採用和客戶結果方面的強烈反應。我們專注於幫助客戶最大限度地利用政府刺激措施得到了今日會計的認可，因為我們的員工保留稅收抵免服務獲得了最高新產品獎。

We recently surpassed $7 billion in total credits processed for our clients. I'm very proud of the agility demonstrated by our IT and service teams to proactively assist our clients with these government subsidies to help them sustain and enhance our clients' financial position.

我們最近為客戶處理的信貸總額超過了 70 億美元。我為我們的 IT 和服務團隊所表現出的敏捷性感到非常自豪，他們主動協助我們的客戶獲得這些政府補貼，以幫助他們維持和提高客戶的財務狀況。

Our mobile and self-service technology solutions deliver efficiency for our clients and their employees, and we have seen significant increases in Flex sessions both through the desktop and mobile devices with an increasingly -- an increasing proportion of the sessions, of course, done by the mobile app. Contributing to this growth is traction we are gaining with wearable devices. The use of the Apple Watch has increased mobile usage for our time and attendance solution. Obviously, this provides another safer method for employees to punch in and out and avoid exposure to COVID and other illnesses.

我們的移動和自助服務技術解決方案為我們的客戶和他們的員工提供了效率，我們看到通過桌面和移動設備的 Flex 會話顯著增加，當然，越來越多的會話是由移動應用程序。促成這種增長的是我們通過可穿戴設備獲得的牽引力。 Apple Watch 的使用增加了我們的考勤解決方案的移動使用率。顯然，這為員工打卡和避免接觸 COVID 和其他疾病提供了另一種更安全的方法。

I am particularly proud of 2 awards that Paychex has been recently been honored with -- for the -- our commitment to business integrity through our best-in-class ethics, compliance and government practices. For the 14th time, Ethisphere named us one of the world's most ethical companies. We are also on Fortune's list of the world's most admired companies. These awards acknowledge our ethical business practices, our values-based culture, innovation, social responsibility and leadership.

我為 Paychex 最近獲得的兩個獎項感到特別自豪——因為我們通過一流的道德、合規和政府實踐對商業誠信的承諾。第 14 次，Ethisphere 將我們評為世界上最有道德的公司之一。我們也在《財富》雜誌的全球最受尊敬公司名單上。這些獎項肯定了我們的道德商業實踐、我們以價值觀為基礎的文化、創新、社會責任和領導力。

We believe doing business the right way leads to greater success. Ethisphere agrees, noting that their 2022 Ethics Index, a collection of publicly traded companies recognized as recipients of this year's World's Most Ethical Companies designation, outperformed a comparable index of large-cap companies by almost 25% over the past 5 years. I give credit to the innovation, integrity and hard work of our employees who live our Paychex values each and every day.

我們相信以正確的方式開展業務會帶來更大的成功。 Ethisphere 對此表示贊同，並指出，他們的 2022 年道德指數（一組上市公司被公認為今年全球最具商業道德的公司）在過去 5 年中的表現比大型公司的可比指數高出近 25%。我讚揚我們員工的創新、正直和辛勤工作，他們每天都踐行我們的 Paychex 價值觀。

In summary, we are very proud of our performance during the third quarter and year-to-date, and I thank our employees for their tireless dedication during our busiest time of the year. Our set of innovative technology and service solutions provides industry-leading value to our clients, and leaves us well positioned for a strong finish for fiscal 2022 and continued growth into fiscal 2023. I'll now turn the call over to Efrain to review our financial results for the third quarter. Efrain?

總而言之，我們為第三季度和年初至今的表現感到非常自豪，我感謝我們的員工在一年中最忙碌的時候的不懈奉獻。我們的一整套創新技術和服務解決方案為我們的客戶提供了行業領先的價值，並使我們為 2022 財年的強勁收官和 2023 財年的持續增長做好準備。我現在將電話轉給 Efrain 以審查我們的財務狀況第三季度業績。埃弗拉恩？

Thanks, Marty. Good morning. Thanks for being on the call. I'd like to remind everyone that today's conference call will contain forward-looking statements, refer to the customary disclosures.

謝謝，馬蒂。早上好。感謝您接聽電話。我想提醒大家，今天的電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，參考慣例披露。

Let me start by providing some of the key points for the quarter. I'll follow up with greater detail in certain areas. I'll finish with a review of fiscal '22 outlook and some very, very, very preliminary thoughts on fiscal 2023. Our third quarter results reflect strong internal execution, as Marty mentioned, and continued improvement in key indicators: service revenue and total revenue increased 15% to $1.3 billion. Within service revenue, Management Solutions revenue increased 13% to $960 million, driven by higher client bases across our HCM suite, check volumes, revenues per check -- revenue per client, payroll funding and outsourced service for temporary staffing clients and ancillary HR services resulting from ERTC, which Marty just mentioned. Although the revenue associated with ERTC is substantially non-recurring, ERT has afforded Paychex the opportunity to continue to deepen its relationship with clients, increase revenue with clients and showcase its industry-leading suite of solutions for small- and medium-sized businesses. A significant opportunity remains both inside and outside our base.

讓我首先提供本季度的一些關鍵點。我將在某些領域進行更詳細的跟進。最後，我將回顧一下 22 財年的前景以及對 2023 財年的一些非常非常非常初步的想法。正如馬蒂所說，我們的第三季度業績反映了強大的內部執行力，以及關鍵指標的持續改善：服務收入和總收入增長 15% 至 13 億美元。在服務收入中，管理解決方案收入增長 13% 至 9.6 億美元，這得益於我們 HCM 套件中更高的客戶群、支票數量、每張支票收入——每位客戶的收入、工資資金和臨時員工客戶的外包服務以及輔助人力資源服務Marty 剛剛提到的 ERTC。儘管與 ERTC 相關的收入基本上是非經常性的，但 ERT 使 Paychex 有機會繼續加深與客戶的關係，增加與客戶的收入，並展示其行業領先的中小企業解決方案套件。我們的基地內外都存在重大機遇。

And one thing I'd like to point out here is, there are a number of HCM platforms in the market. You all know that. But there [are] only a select few partners. In order for you to be able to access the opportunities that arise from having an HCM suite with bundled ancillary services, you have to be a partner, not simply a platform provider. There's only a few of those in the market. Our results demonstrate the power of being one, and we are one of the leading ones. So our results are not surprising to us.

我想在這裡指出的一件事是，市場上有許多 HCM 平台。你們都知道。但是只有少數幾個合作夥伴。為了讓您能夠利用 HCM 套件和捆綁的輔助服務所帶來的機會，您必須成為合作夥伴，而不僅僅是平台提供商。市場上只有少數幾個。我們的結果證明了合一的力量，我們是領先者之一。所以我們的結果對我們來說並不奇怪。

Our clients want to know the difference between a MEP, a SEP and a PEP. They want to know what the implication of the ERTC is for their business. and they want to know what the implications of legislation like the Secure Act is -- how it's going to impact their business.

我們的客戶想知道 MEP、SEP 和 PEP 之間的區別。他們想知道 ERTC 對他們的業務有何影響。他們想知道像《安全法》這樣的立法的含義是什麼——它將如何影響他們的業務。

We know that. We're experts and we're the partner that our clients look to for solutions to those issues. Our results demonstrate that this quarter. Now client base growth in the quarter resulted from both strong sales performance and high levels of client retention. In particular, HR Solutions business continues to benefit from strong demand as businesses look for more HR support.

我們知道。我們是專家，我們是客戶尋求解決這些問題的合作夥伴。我們的結果表明，本季度。現在，本季度客戶群的增長得益於強勁的銷售業績和高水平的客戶保留率。特別是，隨著企業尋求更多的人力資源支持，人力資源解決方案業務繼續受益於強勁的需求。

PEO & Insurance Solutions revenue increased 21% to $302 million. Our PEO business benefited from higher average worksite employees, state unemployment insurance revenue and health insurance attachment. Interest on funds held for clients decreased 5% for the quarter to $14 million, as the impact of lower average interest rates was partially offset by an increase of 13% in average investment balances. And obviously, this is one of the things that's going to change as we go through both the remainder of the year and into the next year. We haven't seen the impact of rising rates yet. We will.

PEO 和保險解決方案收入增長 21% 至 3.02 億美元。我們的 PEO 業務受益於更高的平均工地員工、州失業保險收入和健康保險附加。本季度為客戶持有的資金利息下降 5% 至 1,400 萬美元，因為較低的平均利率的影響被平均投資餘額增長 13% 部分抵消。顯然，隨著我們在今年剩餘時間和明年進入，這是將會改變的事情之一。我們還沒有看到利率上升的影響。我們會。

Total expenses increased 11% to $713 million. The growth in expenses resulted from higher PEO direct insurance costs, headcount to support our growing client base and continued investment in our product technology, sales and marketing.

總支出增長 11% 至 7.13 億美元。費用的增長是由於 PEO 直接保險成本增加、支持我們不斷增長的客戶群的員工人數以及對我們的產品技術、銷售和營銷的持續投資。

Op income increased 20% to $563 million with an operating margin of 44.1%, an expansion of almost 200 basis points. Our effective income tax rate was 22.3% compared to 24.2% for the same period last year. Both periods reflect net discrete tax benefits related to both -- to stock-based compensation benefits -- or payments, I'm sorry.

營業收入增長 20% 至 5.63 億美元，營業利潤率為 44.1%，擴大了近 200 個基點。我們的有效所得稅率為 22.3%，而去年同期為 24.2%。兩個時期都反映了與兩者相關的淨離散稅收優惠——基於股票的薪酬福利——或付款，我很抱歉。

In addition, the current quarter includes tax benefits related to prior year research and development expenses incurred in the production of customer-facing software. So we had an adjustment there, and that's part of our lower tax rate.

此外，本季度包括與生產面向客戶的軟件所產生的上一年研發費用相關的稅收優惠。所以我們在那裡進行了調整，這是我們降低稅率的一部分。

Net income and diluted earnings per share both increased 23% for the quarter to $431 million and $1.19 per share, respectively. Adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 20% for the quarter to $419 million and $1.15 per share, respectively.

本季度淨收入和每股攤薄收益分別增長 23% 至 4.31 億美元和每股 1.19 美元。本季度調整後的淨收入和調整後的每股攤薄收益分別增長 20% 至 4.19 億美元和 1.15 美元。

I'll quickly highlight our results for the 9-month period ending February 28. Both revenue and earnings have grown by double digits for each of the past 3 quarters. Total service revenue and total revenue growth of 15% each to $3.4 billion and $3.5 billion, respectively.

我將快速強調我們在截至 2 月 28 日的 9 個月期間的業績。過去 3 個季度的收入和收益均以兩位數增長。服務總收入和總收入分別增長 15% 至 34 億美元和 35 億美元。

Expenses, excluding onetime costs incurred during the prior year, increased 7%, so we've gotten very good leverage. Operating income and adjusted operating income were $1.4 billion, increases of 31% and 27%, respectively. Diluted earnings per share increased 31% to $3.02 per share. Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 27% to $2.95 a share.

不包括上一年發生的一次性成本在內的費用增長了 7%，因此我們獲得了非常好的槓桿作用。營業收入和調整後營業收入為 14 億美元，分別增長 31% 和 27%。每股攤薄收益增長 31% 至每股 3.02 美元。調整後的每股攤薄收益增長 27% 至每股 2.95 美元。

Let me walk through the highlights of our financial position. As you all can see, it's very strong. Cash, restricted cash and total corporate investments now total over $1.4 billion and our total borrowings of approximately $806 million is where it stood at February 28, 2022.

讓我來看看我們財務狀況的亮點。正如大家所見，它非常強大。現金、受限現金和公司總投資現在總計超過 14 億美元，我們的總借款約為 8.06 億美元，與 2022 年 2 月 28 日的水平相同。

Cash flow from operations was robust in the quarter. It was at $1.2 billion, an increase of 34% from the same period last year. Free cash flow generated for the 9 months was $1 billion, up 36% over last year. The increases were driven by higher net income and fluctuations in working capital. We paid out quarterly dividends at 60 cents -- $0.66 a share for a total of $715 million during the first 9 months. Our 12-month rolling return on equity was 44%. Those are strong numbers.

本季度運營現金流強勁。為 12 億美元，比去年同期增長 34%。 9 個月產生的自由現金流為 10 億美元，比去年增長 36%。這些增長是由較高的淨收入和營運資金的波動推動的。在前 9 個月，我們以每股 0.66 美元的 60 美分支付了季度股息，總計 7.15 億美元。我們 12 個月的滾動股本回報率為 44%。這些都是強有力的數字。

Now I will turn to our guidance for the current fiscal year ending May 31, 2022. The outlook reflects the current macro environment, which saw improvement in the quarter despite some disruption from Omicron. We've taken that into account -- we've taken into account the fact that third quarter results exceeded expectations, but have tempered our outlook given the changing macroeconomic environment, and we provided the following updated fiscal '22 guidance as you saw. Management Solutions revenue is now expected to grow in the range of 12% to 13%. We previously guided to growth in the range of 10% to 11%. PEO & Insurance Solutions is expected to grow in the range of 13% to 14%. We previously guided to growth in the range of 10% to 12%. Interest on funds held for clients is expected to be relatively flat year-over-year. We won't see the impact yet significantly of Fed raises.

現在，我將轉向我們對截至 2022 年 5 月 31 日的當前財政年度的指導。展望反映了當前的宏觀環境，儘管 Omicron 造成了一些干擾，但本季度的宏觀環境有所改善。我們已經考慮到這一點——我們已經考慮到第三季度業績超出預期的事實，但鑑於不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境，我們的前景有所緩和，我們提供了以下更新的 22 財年指導，如您所見。管理解決方案收入現在預計將增長 12% 至 13%。我們之前指導的增長率在 10% 到 11% 之間。 PEO 和保險解決方案預計將增長 13% 至 14%。我們之前指導的增長率在 10% 到 12% 之間。為客戶持有的資金的利息預計將與去年同期相比相對持平。我們不會看到美聯儲加息的顯著影響。

Total revenue is expected to grow in the range of 12% to 13%. We previously guided to growth in the range of 10% to 11%. Adjusted operating income margin is expected to be approximately 40%, up from previous guidance of 39% to 40%. Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be in the range of 44% to 45%, up from previous guidance of approximately 44%.

總收入預計將增長 12% 至 13%。我們之前指導的增長率在 10% 到 11% 之間。調整後的營業利潤率預計約為 40%，高於之前的 39% 至 40% 的指導。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將在 44% 至 45% 的範圍內，高於之前約 44% 的指導。

Other expense net is expected to be approximately $15 million. Our previous guidance was the range -- was in the range of $15 million to $18 million. Effective income tax rate is expected to be approximately 24%. We previously guided in the range of 24% to 25%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share is expected to grow in the range of 22.5% to 23%. We previously guided to growth in the range of 18 to 20. This guidance reflects our intention to continue to invest in our businesses to help drive future growth. And I would just comment that in the fourth quarter, we intend to take some additional actions with respect to investment in the business. So that will temper the margin a little bit as we head into '23.

其他費用淨額預計約為 1500 萬美元。我們之前的指導是范圍——在 1500 萬美元到 1800 萬美元之間。實際所得稅率預計約為 24%。我們之前的指導範圍是 24% 到 25%。調整後的每股攤薄收益預計將增長 22.5% 至 23%。我們之前指導的增長范圍在 18 到 20 之間。該指導反映了我們繼續投資於我們的業務以幫助推動未來增長的意圖。我只想評論說，在第四季度，我們打算在業務投資方面採取一些額外的行動。因此，當我們進入 23 年時，這將稍微緩和一點利潤。

Now comments on '23. We're currently in the process of preparing our annual plan. We'll provide guidance, final guidance for fiscal 2023 during our fiscal 2022 fourth quarter in June. But I want to provide a preliminary thought process around fiscal '23 as we enter the planning cycle.

現在評論'23。我們目前正在準備年度計劃。我們將在 6 月的 2022 財年第四季度提供 2023 財年的最終指導。但是，當我們進入規劃週期時，我想提供一個關於 23 財年的初步思考過程。

On a preliminary basis, we believe that total revenue growth will be in the upper single digits. At this stage, I'd call that somewhere around 7%. I would caution that there's a lot of work to be done to digest completely where the Fed is going to end up and how we position the portfolio. So there's still some moving pieces there. The other thing we would say right now with respect to operating margins is, we expect an improvement of about 50 basis points. You know that typically, that's what we're aiming for. We've had very, very significant operating margin improvement, but we're still committed to leveraging the business. So that's where we're at right now.

初步認為，總收入增長將在上個位數。在這個階段，我將其稱為 7% 左右。我會警告說，要完全消化美聯儲的最終目標以及我們如何定位投資組合，還有很多工作要做。所以那裡仍然有一些移動的部分。關於營業利潤率，我們現在要說的另一件事是，我們預計將提高約 50 個基點。您通常知道，這就是我們的目標。我們的營業利潤率有了非常非常顯著的提高，但我們仍然致力於利用業務。這就是我們現在所處的位置。

I want to call out 1 thing that's important. Other expense net is going to be in the range of $25 million to $30 million next year due to the absence of equity gains that we got this year. So we have a portfolio that we invest in had equity gains during the year. Those will not be in next year, at least we don't -- can't plan on them or anticipate they will be there.

我想指出一件很重要的事情。由於我們今年沒有獲得股權收益，明年其他費用淨額將在 2500 萬美元到 3000 萬美元之間。所以我們有一個投資組合，我們投資的投資組合在這一年裡有股票收益。這些不會在明年出現，至少我們不會 - 無法計劃或預期它們會在那裡。

And then the effective tax rate will be in the range of 24% to 25%. Of course, all of this is very preliminary. It's subject to revision, and it's based on assumptions that could change given the uncertain macro environment, especially as we gain additional insight into what the Fed actually will do. We'll update you again on the fourth quarter call. So with all of that, I'll turn it back over to Marty.

然後有效稅率將在 24% 到 25% 的範圍內。當然，這一切都是非常初步的。它可能會進行修訂，並且基於不確定的宏觀環境可能會發生變化的假設，尤其是當我們對美聯儲實際將採取的行動有了更多了解時。我們將在第四季度電話會議上再次通知您。所以有了這一切，我會把它交給馬蒂。

Thank you, Efrain. We'll now open the call to questions. Katie?

謝謝你，埃弗拉恩。我們現在將打開問題電話。凱蒂？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Bryan Bergin with Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Bryan Bergin 和 Cowen。

I appreciate you giving us an early fiscal '23 view here. So understanding you've got some outsized double-digit growth comps materializing this year. That's good to hear for next year's number. I guess more importantly, though, a question we're often getting is how to think about a sustainable level of growth in your business. You've had some peers speak to medium-term targets in the model. Anything you could share as a framework for how you're thinking about maybe longer-term growth based on what you're seeing in the market and what you've done here to drive that stronger sales execution.

感謝您在此處為我們提供 23 財年早期的觀點。因此，了解您今年已經實現了一些超大的兩位數增長組合。很高興聽到明年的數字。不過，我想更重要的是，我們經常遇到的一個問題是如何考慮您的業務的可持續增長水平。你已經讓一些同行談到了模型中的中期目標。根據您在市場上看到的情況以及您在此處為推動更強大的銷售執行所做的工作，您可以分享任何作為您如何考慮長期增長的框架的內容。

Yes. Bryan, first of all, thanks for the comments. I think that we start with, I guess, 2 things and then 1 further building block. With respect to Management Solutions, many of you heard me say this, we start with the premise that we're going to be at least mid, and we would hope over that time frame to get above mid- to upper-single-digits in Management Solutions. When we get to Q4, we'll call that out a little bit more. And then on the PEO & Insurance side, we expect to be around double digits. So we start with that premise, that yields a certain revenue growth that we think is going to be upper single digits.

是的。布萊恩，首先，感謝您的評論。我認為我們從 2 件事開始，然後是 1 個進一步的構建塊。關於管理解決方案，你們中的許多人都聽到我這樣說，我們從我們將至少處於中等水平的前提開始，我們希望在那個時間框架內能夠達到中高個位數以上管理解決方案。當我們到達第四季度時，我們會再強調一點。然後在 PEO 和保險方面，我們預計將達到兩位數左右。所以我們從這個前提開始，這會產生一定的收入增長，我們認為這將是上個位數。

And then the other thing is that our expectation is that we will leverage. And in typical years, we average at least 50 basis points. Some years we won't do that; some years, we'll do 200. So a year like this year from a leverage perspective doesn't come around that long. So I don't suspect there will be too many 200 basis points leverage years in us. But we do expect to continue to leverage going forward, certainly over the intermediate term. And just 1 other point on that. That's not simply an arithmetic exercise. It's a function of all of the work that's being done in the background around automating and making the business more efficient.

然後另一件事是我們的期望是我們會利用。在典型的年份，我們平均至少有 50 個基點。有些年我們不會那樣做；有些年份，我們會做 200 次。所以從槓桿的角度來看，像今年這樣的一年不會出現那麼久。所以我不懷疑我們會有太多的 200 個基點槓桿年。但我們確實希望繼續發揮槓桿作用，當然是在中期。還有一點。這不僅僅是一個算術練習。這是在後台完成的所有工作的一個功能，圍繞自動化和提高業務效率。

I said earlier in the comments that -- we have a -- we are a leading HCM suite provider. But what makes us so unique is we do that at margins that are industry-leading.

我之前在評論中說過——我們有一個——我們是領先的 HCM 套件提供商。但讓我們如此獨特的是我們以行業領先的利潤率做到這一點。

And so we work very hard on that. That's -- as we go into a planned process here, that will be a mantra that's repeated over and over. And we expect to be able to deliver on those commitments over the intermediate term.

所以我們在這方面非常努力。那是——當我們在這裡進入一個計劃的過程時，這將是一個反復重复的口頭禪。我們希望能夠在中期兌現這些承諾。

And I think just to add to that, on the sales execution, we feel very strong this year. We've had great sales execution, selling season was very strong. Record third quarter sales performance. And as we've been going through it, really across the board. So we're really pleased that not only the marketing and brand work we've done, but the product development that we've done in innovation there has really, I think, hit the marketplace very well at a time -- we really timed it very well to hit the market with the HR support that businesses and prospects, current clients and prospects needed from a attracting and hiring and retaining talent, we really hit the right timing on that.

而且我認為只是補充一點，在銷售執行方面，我們今年感覺非常強勁。我們的銷售執行力很好，銷售旺季非常強勁。創紀錄的第三季度銷售業績。正如我們一直在經歷的那樣，真的是全面的。所以我們真的很高興，不僅我們所做的營銷和品牌工作，而且我們在創新方面所做的產品開發，我認為，一次都很好地進入了市場——我們真的趕上了通過吸引、僱用和留住人才所需的企業和潛在客戶、當前客戶和潛在客戶所需的人力資源支持進入市場非常好，我們真的在這方面找到了正確的時機。

And then in addition to it, as Efrain said, this just doesn't happen. The thought that went into the employee retention tax credit, which has been very successful for us, we've been able to go to current clients and prospects and talk about how we can get this government subsidy for you. And those tax credits have averaged around $180,000 per client. And when you think of our average client size, it's a significant dollar amount that adds, as Efrain mentioned earlier, a lot of value. And then to say, hey, not only are we helping you with that, here's how we can help you continue to sustain your growth in your business. It's been very successful. And we don't -- that's how we play the game. So we feel we'll continue to be able to do that.

然後除此之外，正如 Efrain 所說，這根本不會發生。考慮到員工保留稅收抵免對我們來說非常成功，我們已經能夠與現有客戶和潛在客戶討論我們如何為您獲得這項政府補貼。這些稅收抵免平均為每位客戶約 180,000 美元。當您考慮我們的平均客戶規模時，正如 Efrain 之前提到的，這是一筆可觀的美元金額，增加了很多價值。然後說，嘿，我們不僅可以幫助您，還可以通過以下方式幫助您繼續保持業務增長。它非常成功。我們沒有——這就是我們玩遊戲的方式。所以我們覺得我們將繼續能夠做到這一點。

Okay. Makes sense. And just a follow-up on retention. So can you just share where unit retention landed here in 3Q? It doesn't sound like you have any change of holding higher post-pandemic levels, but correct me if I'm wrong there. And just 1 thing, are you seeing any change in the gap between unit and revenue retention as your mid-market and larger client push materializes?

好的。說得通。只是對保留的跟進。那麼，您能否分享第三季度的單位留存率？聽起來你在大流行後保持更高的水平沒有任何變化，但如果我錯了，請糾正我。只有一件事，隨著您的中端市場和更大客戶的推動實現，您是否看到單位和收入保留之間的差距有任何變化？

It's a good question. I think revenue retention is a little higher. And so that we are seeing a little bit of a gap there, as you'd expect, just based on the size of the clients and that we're getting more mid-market success in both sales and retention.

這是個好問題。我認為收入保留率要高一些。因此，正如您所期望的那樣，我們看到了一些差距，這只是基於客戶的規模，而且我們在銷售和保留方面取得了更多的中端市場成功。

The overall retention number is going to be better than pre-pandemic, at least that is experienced to be right now. It's better than pre-pandemic. We think that will stay through the rest of the fiscal year. And -- but not quite at the record levels. But we -- it doesn't surprise us. I think a lot of people held on through the pandemic, and we're trying to figure out where they were.

總體保留人數將比大流行前更好，至少現在是這樣。比疫情前好。我們認為這將持續到本財年的剩餘時間。而且——但還沒有達到創紀錄的水平。但我們——這並不讓我們感到驚訝。我認為很多人在大流行中堅持了下來，我們正試圖弄清楚他們在哪裡。

But again, things like the employee retention tax credit, those things have helped our retention, and we're trying to see if businesses, even under the pressure that they're under, can still sustain their business and keep themselves going. There's a lot of challenges out there, as you know, with supply chain and just inflation and so forth. And so we're a little cautious. But right now, we don't see that impacting them very much.

但同樣，員工保留稅收抵免之類的東西有助於我們的保留，我們正在嘗試看看企業是否即使在承受壓力的情況下仍然能夠維持他們的業務並保持自己的發展。如您所知，供應鍊和通貨膨脹等方面存在很多挑戰。所以我們有點謹慎。但現在，我們認為這對他們影響不大。

Our next question comes from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自 Andrew Nicholas 和 William Blair。

First one I had was just on the pricing environment in the PEO business specifically. Are you seeing any noticeable change in the aggressiveness of your competitors when it comes to price? And if so, is that something that's had any impact on new business generation or competitive win rates to this point?

我的第一個只是關於 PEO 業務的定價環境。在價格方面，您是否發現競爭對手的積極性有任何明顯變化？如果是這樣，到目前為止，這是否對新業務產生或競爭勝率產生了影響？

Yes. No, we have not. I don't see any real changes in that environment. We've been able to, I think, take good price -- get good price on our sales and have not seen any increase in the need to discount further or anything like that. So we've been very pleased with not only had sales at a record level, but we've been able to hold price as well.

是的。不，我們沒有。我看不到那個環境有任何真正的變化。我認為，我們已經能夠以優惠的價格獲得良好的銷售價格，並且沒有看到進一步折扣或類似情況的需求增加。因此，我們非常高興不僅銷售額達到創紀錄水平，而且我們也能夠保持價格。

Andrew, the other thing I'd add is, first of all, nice report on the PEO industry, by the way. The other part is if you get aggressive on price in the wrong way, in the PEO, you pay a ferocious price, but you don't get -- you don't pay the price in the next 6- to 12-months. If you discount your health care insurance and then don't price it appropriate to market, and of course, you know this better than I do, you pay a price down the road. So we are really, really careful on that point.

安德魯，我要補充的另一件事是，首先，順便說一下，關於 PEO 行業的不錯的報告。另一部分是，如果你以錯誤的方式在價格上咄咄逼人，在 PEO 中，你付出了慘痛的代價，但你沒有得到——你不會在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內付出代價。如果你打折你的醫療保險，然後不給它定價以適合市場，當然，你比我更清楚這一點，你會付出代價。所以我們在這一點上非常非常小心。

I would say it's 1 of the 5 things we're probably most careful about is pricing all of that ancillary -- all of the insurance -- direct insurance in a way that's appropriate to the risk. And we haven't had any blowups. We monitor that closely. So we think there's a really compelling value prop in PEO that's going to continue to grow, but it won't be on the basis of selling cheap insurance. We were very cautious about that.

我想說這是我們可能最小心的五件事之一，就是以適合風險的方式為所有輔助——所有保險——直接保險定價。而且我們沒有發生任何爆炸。我們密切關注這一點。因此，我們認為 PEO 有一個非常引人注目的價值支柱，它將繼續增長，但它不會建立在銷售廉價保險的基礎上。我們對此非常謹慎。

No, that's helpful. And part of why I ask is because some of the conversations we've had indicate maybe, maybe there are some other players that are being aggressive on that front. So not specific to Paychex. In terms of my follow-up, Efrain, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks towards the end that you intend to take some additional investment actions in the fourth quarter. Could you spend a little bit more time talking about areas of interest there? Just to give us a little bit more insight on what to look out for going forward?

不，這很有幫助。我問的部分原因是因為我們的一些對話可能表明，也許還有其他一些球員在這方面表現得非常激進。所以不是特定於 Paychex。關於我的後續行動，Efrain，我想你在準備好的發言中提到你打算在第四季度採取一些額外的投資行動。你能多花點時間談談那裡感興趣的領域嗎？只是為了讓我們更深入地了解未來需要注意什麼？

Yes, and Andrew, I can take some of that, too. I would say there's certainly, as you can expect, from an employee retention standpoint, there's some actions we want to take and kind of move some of that up in the process. There's also more marketing. We're finding good response to our SEM and SEO investments on brand and also the products that's worked well with us for sales in the last 3 quarters. So we decided to continue to spend there.

是的，安德魯，我也可以接受一些。我想說的是，正如你所料，從員工保留的角度來看，我們肯定會採取一些行動，並在此過程中採取一些行動。還有更多的營銷。我們對我們在品牌上的 SEM 和 SEO 投資以及在過去 3 個季度與我們合作良好的產品進行了良好的響應。所以我們決定繼續在那裡消費。

And then some of the investment in IT that we would have planned typically to start into the first quarter, we can move some of that up, we feel, and accelerate it to get the products out even a little faster that are coming up. So it's really kind of across the board.

然後是我們通常計劃在第一季度開始的一些 IT 投資，我們可以將其中的一些投資提高，我們認為，並加速它以更快地推出即將推出的產品。所以它真的是全面的。

The other thing is we have been hiring. So we got a little low in the first part of the year particularly in service and with turnover and so forth. We have now accelerated that hiring and done well in the third quarter, and that will pick up some additional costs in the fourth quarter.

另一件事是我們一直在招聘。所以我們在今年上半年的表現有點低，尤其是在服務和營業額等方面。我們現在已經加快了招聘速度，並且在第三季度做得很好，這將在第四季度增加一些額外的成本。

Our next question comes from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh。

Efrain, Marty, nice job. Efrain, thanks so much for the preliminary results in terms of outlook for '23. Is there any way to frame what type of Fed funds is in that 7%? I just -- I didn't get that. I know it's fluid, but is there any way to think about just initial thoughts on that?

Efrain，馬蒂，幹得好。 Efrain，非常感謝 23 年展望方面的初步結果。有什麼辦法可以確定這 7% 中的聯邦基金是什麼類型的？我只是——我不明白。我知道它是流動的，但是有什麼方法可以考慮一下最初的想法嗎？

We have some -- we don't have all of it in at this point in the preliminary outlook, Kevin. We want to get a sense of whether 6% is real, 4% is real, 9% is real, 8% is real. And I think we're all trying to read the tea leaves. Is it 50, is it 25, we have what we would -- I can characterize as a moderate scenario, certainly not the most aggressive. A lot of that growth is really more being driven by improvements in operating performance. And if the Fed gets very constructive, and we avoid a recession, that's part of what we'll have a better -- a clearer answer to when we get to June.

我們有一些——在初步展望中，我們目前還沒有全部包含在內，凱文。我們想要了解 6% 是否真實、4% 是否真實、9% 是否真實、8% 是否真實。而且我認為我們都在嘗試閱讀茶葉。是 50 歲，還是 25 歲，我們有我們想要的——我可以將其描述為溫和的情景，當然不是最激進的情景。很多這種增長實際上更多地是由經營業績的改善推動的。如果美聯儲變得非常有建設性，並且我們避免了經濟衰退，這就是我們將獲得更好的一部分——在我們到 6 月時有一個更明確的答案。

That's super helpful. And then my other question is more, I don't know if it's longer term or whether it's for you or Marty, but can you help us understand the addressable market of Paychex today versus last cycle? Because obviously you've done a ton of investment. It seems like what you're able to offer your clients is much more robust today. So is there any way to think about kind of whether it's a dollar amount or just how you're thinking about the addressable market today versus maybe what it was coming out of the last cycle?

這非常有幫助。然後我的另一個問題是更多，我不知道它是否是長期的，或者它是否適合你或 Marty，但你能幫助我們了解 Paychex 今天與上一個週期的潛在市場嗎？因為顯然你已經做了很多投資。今天，您能夠為客戶提供的服務似乎更加強大。那麼，有什麼方法可以考慮它是美元數量，還是您如何看待今天的潛在市場與上一個週期可能出現的市場？

Yes. I think definitely from the product set that we offer and the integration with Flex in the digital approach to everything we've done I think it is definitely larger. I don't know if I could put a dollar amount on it, but I think our success in the mid-market sales in particular and the retention there over the last 3 quarters has really shown that we're hitting the mark, as I mentioned earlier.

是的。我認為肯定從我們提供的產品集以及與 Flex 在數字方法中的集成到我們所做的一切，我認為它肯定更大。我不知道我是否可以為此投入一美元，但我認為我們在中端市場銷售方面的成功以及過去三個季度的留存率確實表明我們正在達到目標，因為我較早前提過。

We really focused on the -- what would be the impact of coming out of COVID -- kind of the heavy COVID period, which is that distributed workforce, how do you allow the hiring, the onboarding, the retaining of employees who are maybe distributed or may be in the office, how do you handle all that? I think those products have really positioned us well to a larger mid-market base. It's not necessarily larger clients, but I think maybe a broader set of solutions that will hit a lot of different areas for clients.

我們真正關注的是——從 COVID 中出來會產生什麼影響——那種沉重的 COVID 時期，即分散的勞動力，你如何允許招聘、入職、保留可能分散的員工或者可能在辦公室，你如何處理這一切？我認為這些產品確實使我們很好地定位到了更大的中端市場基礎。不一定是更大的客戶，但我認為可能會有更廣泛的解決方案集為客戶帶來許多不同的領域。

And I think at the same time, I think we positioned ourselves well that -- from what the client is really feeling coming out of COVID. It opened up an opportunity like distributed workforces to say, let me tell you how powerful the mobile -- the mobile app of Flex is. Look at how -- just take an example that our head of product management did for a team the other day, an investment team looking at products. Just the mobile app of time and attendance and how that works and how you can, of course, punch in and out, but how you can shift swap remotely, alert someone that you don't need this shift or you don't need that shift and open it up and take it. And all that is done on a mobile app for across employees. Very powerful, not to mention retention analytics and a lot of the analytics work that we've given clients. So I think long answer, I think we've opened up a lot more opportunities for us at a very perfect time to do that.

同時我認為，我認為我們很好地定位了自己——從客戶對 COVID 的真實感受來看。它開闢了一個機會，比如分佈式勞動力，讓我告訴你移動設備——Flex 的移動應用程序有多麼強大。看看如何——舉個例子，我們的產品管理負責人前幾天為一個團隊做的，一個投資團隊在看產品。只是時間和出勤的移動應用程序，它是如何工作的，當然，你可以如何打卡和打卡，但是你如何遠程換班，提醒某人你不需要這個班次或者你不需要那個班次轉移並打開它並拿走它。所有這一切都是在一個移動應用程序上為所有員工完成的。非常強大，更不用說保留分析和我們為客戶提供的大量分析工作。所以我想長長的回答，我認為我們在一個非常完美的時間為我們開闢了更多的機會來做到這一點。

The other thing I'd add, Kevin, is -- and this quarter really is a demonstration of that. When COVID started, we were doing a lot of consulting with our clients and not -- we weren't charging. It wasn't monetized. But I will say that in the midst of the pandemic, some of our competitors referred their clients to our website in terms of information. I think as we progressed through COVID, what we learned was that there is a tremendous amount of opportunity in the services that attach around the HCM suite. So ERTC is a great example of that situation.

凱文，我要補充的另一件事是 - 本季度確實是一個證明。當 COVID 開始時，我們正在與客戶進行大量諮詢，而不是 - 我們沒有收費。它沒有被貨幣化。但我要說的是，在大流行期間，我們的一些競爭對手在信息方面將他們的客戶推薦給了我們的網站。我認為，隨著我們在 COVID 中取得進展，我們了解到，圍繞 HCM 套件附加的服務中存在大量機會。因此，ERTC 就是這種情況的一個很好的例子。

Retirement Services promises to be another important opportunity going forward. And there will be others which we don't know a lot about right now, because they haven't been surfaced. What we're finding is that, that -- in addition to the technology that Marty highlighted, that technology opens another door for the opportunity to provide a set of solutions that clients are interested in once we inform them about it or once we partner with them.

退休服務有望成為未來的另一個重要機會。還有一些我們現在不太了解的，因為它們還沒有浮出水面。我們的發現是，除了 Marty 強調的技術之外，一旦我們告知客戶或與我們合作，該技術為提供一組客戶感興趣的解決方案的機會打開了另一扇門他們。

And I would say our marketing, our product, our IT teams and our compliance teams also are all working very hard, and including -- I put in our legal team, too -- to uncover those kinds of opportunities that we can monetize. So there -- within the product set, there's 1 set of opportunities. And I think there's this growing amount of services that we can provide our clients that play off our technology, and that part we'll be looking to dimension as we go forward. But it's becoming increasingly important.

我想說我們的營銷、我們的產品、我們的 IT 團隊和我們的合規團隊也都在非常努力地工作，包括——我也加入了我們的法律團隊——以發現我們可以貨幣化的那些機會。因此，在產品集中，有一組機會。而且我認為我們可以為客戶提供越來越多的服務，這些服務可以發揮我們的技術，而這部分我們將在我們前進的過程中尋求維度。但它變得越來越重要。

Yes. And you got us excited to talk about this, now that -- adding to what Efrain just said, it's the use of the data. We really have maximized the use of our client data now. And like when the Paycheck Protection loans started, our -- the teams here figured out, hey, look, we use the data to immediately alert the clients that they could file for the loans and we could basically pre-populate the entire application other than they have to sign it. When it became, you could add other expenses in there, okay, just add the other expenses. But we pre-populated, if you're a client of ours, all of the data that we have in our system. And then -- and so 94%, 95% of those loans now have all been, by the way, turned into grants. So they've all been approved as complete grants. So it's also using the power of our data and as Efrain said, the employee retention tax credit was, we use the data to now go to our clients and say, hey look, based on what we have in our data, we think you can apply for this.

是的。你讓我們興奮地談論這個，現在 - 除了 Efrain 剛才所說的，它是數據的使用。我們現在確實最大限度地利用了我們的客戶數據。就像薪資保護貸款開始時一樣，我們的團隊發現，嘿，看，我們使用數據立即提醒客戶他們可以申請貸款，我們基本上可以預先填充整個應用程序，除了他們必須簽字。當它變成時，你可以在那裡添加其他費用，好吧，只需添加其他費用。但是，如果您是我們的客戶，我們會預先填充我們系統中的所有數據。然後——順便說一句，現在這些貸款中的 94%、95% 都變成了贈款。所以它們都被批准為完整的贈款。因此，它還利用了我們數據的力量，正如 Efrain 所說，員工保留稅收抵免是，我們現在使用這些數據去找我們的客戶說，嘿，看，根據我們的數據，我們認為你可以申請這個。

And you fill out -- you sign a couple of things electronically, and we'll help you file, and we'll amend the returns and you're going to have $180,000 on average. That's a big deal. So that added a lot of value to the clients that said, wow, I didn't realize that Paychex could do all this for me and it added a lot, I think, to the retention and the brand value of what we could do for them.

然後你填寫——你以電子方式簽署幾份文件，我們將幫助你提交文件，我們將修改申報表，你將平均獲得 180,000 美元。這是一件大事。所以這為客戶增加了很多價值，他們說，哇，我沒有意識到 Paychex 可以為我做這一切，我認為，它增加了很多，我們可以做的事情的保留和品牌價值他們。

Our next question comes from Jason Kupferberg with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Kupferberg。

Efrain, I just wanted to start by probing some of your comments in the prepared remarks around macro. I think you said something to the effect of tempering your outlook. But obviously, you raised the outlook, at least for revenue for the year, by more than what you just beat the quarter by. So I just wanted to try and reconcile that. Is that really reflected in the initial outlook for '23?

Efrain，我只是想首先在關於宏的準備好的評論中探討您的一些評論。我認為你說了一些話來緩和你的看法。但很明顯，你至少提高了今年的收入前景，超過了你剛剛擊敗的季度。所以我只是想試著調和一下。這真的反映在 23 年的初步展望中嗎？

Yes. Yes. That was mostly for people like you, Jason, who would ding me on why aren't you more constructive on Q4. As a number of you who know me, and who I've known you for now a number of years, we're going to point out about how we're looking at Q4.

是的。是的。這主要是針對像你這樣的人，傑森，他會告訴我為什麼你在第四季度沒有更具建設性。作為一些認識我的人，以及我已經認識你多年的人，我們將指出我們如何看待第四季度。

There's an element of caution in Q4. And if you look at where our fact set is in Q4, you can derive an imputed number for Q4. The point I was simply making there is that, as Marty highlighted earlier, given the year, we decided that it was important to continue to spend into Q4. So that was 1 element of it. So tempered a little bit from an expense standpoint. Our flow-through of what we think could be revenue in the quarter, that's one.

第四季度有一個謹慎的因素。如果您查看我們的事實集在第四季度的位置，您可以推導出第四季度的估算數字。我在這裡簡單說明的一點是，正如 Marty 早些時候強調的那樣，鑑於這一年，我們認為繼續在第四季度進行支出很重要。所以這是其中的一個元素。從費用的角度來看，所以稍微緩和了一點。我們認為本季度可能是收入的流動，就是這樣。

And then second, when we were putting all the data together, I think the macro environment looked -- it was looking a little bit more uncertain than maybe it is right now. And I don't mean that something suddenly changed in the last week, but the environment is kind of volatile. And I just wanted to highlight that we're sitting here feeling okay, from a macro perspective. By the way, business-wise, we feel very okay, but things could change in the next -- over the next month. And so I just wanted to inject small note of caution to what was a really strong quarter for us.

其次，當我們將所有數據放在一起時，我認為宏觀環境看起來 - 它看起來比現在更加不確定。我並不是說上週突然發生了變化，而是環境有點不穩定。我只是想強調一下，從宏觀角度來看，我們坐在這裡感覺還不錯。順便說一句，在業務方面，我們感覺很好，但接下來的情況可能會發生變化——下個月。因此，我只想對我們真正強勁的季度注入一點謹慎。

Yes. Yes, it was. Okay. Totally understand. I know I think the past couple of quarters, you've been calling out some tailwind from temp staffing clients. And I was just curious if you can quantify maybe how much of a lift that has provided to Management Solutions and your thoughts on sustainability of the tailwind?

是的。是的。好的。完全明白。我知道我認為在過去的幾個季度中，您一直在從臨時員工客戶那裡獲得一些順風。我只是好奇您是否可以量化為管理解決方案提供了多少提升以及您對順風可持續性的看法？

We -- it's modest, Jason. So many of you know that we provide funding for staffing companies. Just to make sure everyone's clear, we don't -- we're not in the staffing business. We're in the funding of the staffing business. The staffing business has been on fire over the last 6 months. And so our funding business has done very, very well this year. So it's still modest. It's a highly profitable business for us. But it's contributed in the mix of things that have gone well, and it's a long list of things that have [gotten] well this year. It's one of the businesses that's had a pretty robust recovery.

我們——這是謙虛的，傑森。很多人都知道我們為招聘公司提供資金。只是為了確保每個人都清楚，我們沒有 - 我們不從事人員配備業務。我們正在為人員配備業務提供資金。在過去的 6 個月裡，人員配備業務一直很火。所以今年我們的融資業務做得非常非常好。所以還是低調的。對我們來說，這是一項高利潤的業務。但它在一些進展順利的事情中做出了貢獻，而且這是一長串今年進展順利的事情。這是複蘇相當強勁的企業之一。

Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Marty and Efrain. Efrain, I know 1 of the areas we always talk about is pays per control, and you've talked about how in this environment that's been difficult. I'm wondering what the trend has been? And what you kind of expect the trend to be over the next 6 months or so?

馬蒂和埃弗拉恩。 Efrain，我知道我們經常談論的領域之一是按控制付費，您已經談到在這種環境下這是多麼困難。我想知道趨勢是什麼？您對未來 6 個月左右的趨勢有何預期？

Yes, Kartik. I mean, you know better than most. If I would have said at this point that unemployment was at 3.8%, I think that most people would have thought I was crazy -- and that we were going to base a plan on that idea.

是的，卡提克。我的意思是，你比大多數人都清楚。如果我此時說失業率為 3.8%，我想大多數人會認為我瘋了——我們將根據這個想法制定計劃。

At 3.8%, look, it's been more robust than we thought. I'll let Marty comment because he just -- we just, I should say, released the employment index. And so we've got a little bit more -- he's got a lot more color on that than I do. But I would say you're getting to the point where it's going to get difficult for that number to run. It's been running positive and it's been running ahead of what we thought. But you're getting to a point where it's going to be difficult to continue to run quite as hot as it's been. So I'll let Marty talk a little bit [more about that]...

3.8%，看，它比我們想像的更強勁。我會讓馬蒂發表評論，因為他剛剛——我應該說，我們剛剛發布了就業指數。所以我們有更多的東西——他比我有更多的色彩。但我會說你已經到了讓這個數字難以運行的地步。它一直在積極運行，並且一直超出我們的預期。但是你已經到了一個地步，很難繼續像以前一樣熱地運行。所以我會讓馬蒂談談[更多關於那個]......

Yes. I think we've seen -- Kartik, in the index, this is really the clients under 50 in that index. But we continue to see strong job growth, and it has moderated the last 2 months. But it's still strong growth over last year. And I think as we've sold more into the mid-market as well, we're seeing probably a little bit better growth there from the number of employees because we're into a larger client size. And I think what we're trying to measure is, with the things that are going on now in the macro environment, what is that going to mean going forward? Like they haven't -- there's a number of government subsidies, but are we getting to the end of those?

是的。我想我們已經看到——Kartik，在指數中，這實際上是該指數中 50 歲以下的客戶。但我們繼續看到強勁的就業增長，並且在過去兩個月有所放緩。但它仍然比去年強勁增長。而且我認為，隨著我們也向中端市場銷售更多產品，我們看到員工數量的增長可能會更好一些，因為我們的客戶規模更大。我認為我們試圖衡量的是，在宏觀環境中現在正在發生的事情，這對未來意味著什麼？就像他們沒有一樣 - 有許多政府補貼，但我們是否即將結束這些補貼？

Now we still think, by the way, the employee retention tax credit will help us in next year as well and help our clients, because there's still a lot we can file for as we go back through the process. But I think it's just how much are they going to grow going forward? Right now, there's a bit of a bit of pessimism in small clients as to between inflation, supply chain, et cetera, should we be a little bit careful, but they have demand, right? Especially restaurants and so forth. So when you look at leisure and hospitality, job growth is up 20% -- 21%, the fastest of all of them, but how will that continue given inflation concerns and supply chain stuff that continues. So -- so we'll see. I think it's still positive. We're still seeing growth, but it's moderating.

現在我們仍然認為，順便說一句，員工保留稅收抵免也將在明年幫助我們並幫助我們的客戶，因為當我們回顧整個過程時，我們仍然可以申請很多。但我認為這只是他們未來會增長多少？現在小客戶對於通脹、供應鍊等等，還是有點悲觀的，我們是不是要小心一點，但是他們有需求，對吧？尤其是餐館等等。因此，當您查看休閒和酒店業時，就業增長增長了 20% - 21%，是所有這些增長中最快的，但考慮到通脹問題和供應鏈問題，這種情況將如何持續下去。所以——我們拭目以待。我認為它仍然是積極的。我們仍然看到增長，但它正在放緩。

And then, Marty, just on pricing. Every business has taken the opportunity to raise prices just because of the environment we're in, and everybody is faced with inflationary pressures just like you are. I'm wondering maybe what the strategy is for Paychex from a price standpoint as you move forward or at least for this year?

然後，Marty，就定價而言。每個企業都因為我們所處的環境而抓住機會提高價格，每個人都像您一樣面臨通貨膨脹壓力。我想知道從價格的角度來看，Paychex 的策略是什麼？

I think what we're seeing is the opportunity to be at the high end of our range. The range would still be in that same, but I think we'll be at the high end of that range. Our -- some costs are up, obviously, for us. But I think that the value of the products to our clients have increased is all the things we've talked about before. With the help that we're giving them through government subsidies, with all of the value we're giving them in HR, then all the product investments we've made. So I think that they will tolerate that quite well actually, because we're just going to be toward the high end of the range that we normally would have.

我認為我們看到的是進入高端市場的機會。範圍仍將保持不變，但我認為我們將處於該範圍的高端。顯然，對我們來說，我們的一些成本增加了。但我認為產品對我們客戶的價值增加了，這就是我們之前談到的所有事情。在我們通過政府補貼給予他們的幫助下，我們在人力資源方面給予他們的所有價值，然後是我們所做的所有產品投資。所以我認為他們實際上會很好地容忍這一點，因為我們只會接近我們通常擁有的範圍的高端。

Our next question will come from Eugene Simuni with MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Eugene Simuni 和 MoffettNathanson。

Marty and Efrain. Two quick follow-ups. One, just on retention. I just wanted to clarify separating between out-of-business churn and competitive losses. Can you maybe elaborate a little bit on how those 2 things are trending in relation to the still near-record-high retention levels overall? Is it across both of those metrics? Or is it 1 of them, now picking up in terms of churn versus the other?

馬蒂和埃弗拉恩。兩個快速跟進。一，只是保留。我只是想澄清停業流失和競爭損失之間的區別。您能否詳細說明這兩件事與總體上仍接近創紀錄高位的保留水平有何關係？是否跨越這兩個指標？或者是其中之一，現在在流失率方面有所上升？

Yes. Out-of-business is pretty solid. And so the competitive has not changed all that much really. And in fact, if you look at what our largest competitor, if you -- we always look at how much have we sold to their clients and sold them away from the competitor and how much have we lost. We're a net gain at this point. So we're not losing any more really to competitors, some -- some -- but for here and there, but really we're pretty solid on the retention kind of across the board as to how we're doing. Obviously, if we're near record levels, we're continuing to be pretty steady in where we are in retention.

是的。停業是相當穩固的。因此，競爭並沒有真正發生太大變化。事實上，如果你看看我們最大的競爭對手是什麼，如果你——我們總是看看我們向他們的客戶銷售了多少，把他們從競爭對手那裡賣掉了，我們損失了多少。在這一點上，我們是淨收益。因此，我們並沒有真正輸給競爭對手，有些——有些——但在這里和那裡，但實際上我們在全面保留我們的表現方面非常穩固。顯然，如果我們接近創紀錄水平，我們將繼續保持相當穩定的保留率。

Yes. Got it. And yes, sorry, just to a -- so out-of-business in terms of like bankruptcies as we maybe move away from government stimulus, you're not really seeing that pressure yet in your business?

是的。知道了。是的，抱歉，只是因為我們可能會放棄政府刺激措施，所以就破產之類的業務而言，您還沒有真正看到您的業務中的壓力嗎？

Not yet. No. Not yet.

還沒有。還沒有。

Interesting. And then -- great. And then another quick 1 on the PEO. Just wanted to see if you can provide some color on what drove the 21% growth in revenue across the major drivers that you call out, which is worksite employees and [maybe] contribution of the Insurance revenue to that number?

有趣的。然後——太好了。然後是另一個關於 PEO 的快速 1。只是想看看你是否可以提供一些顏色來說明是什麼推動了你所說的主要驅動因素的收入增長 21%，即工作場所員工和保險收入對這個數字的貢獻？

Yes. I'll start and Efrain can jump in. I think, one, we've had very solid sales, very strong sales results. And then with those sales results, we've seen great attachment to insurance, so better attachment for insurance products. I think that's very reflective of the need to provide insurance and the good benefit plans and opportunity that the PEO provides clients and prospects.

是的。我會開始，Efrain 可以加入。我認為，第一，我們的銷售非常穩定，銷售業績非常強勁。然後通過這些銷售結果，我們看到了對保險的極大依戀，因此對保險產品的依戀更好。我認為這非常反映了提供保險的需要，以及 PEO 為客戶和潛在客戶提供的良好福利計劃和機會。

And then last, we've seen, obviously, an increase in worksite employees from the clients that we have. So they've been adding back employees. So you've really kind of got it across the board. You've got good sales, good solid retention. You've got better attachment to insurance and growing worksite employees of the existing base.

最後，我們顯然已經看到，我們擁有的客戶的工作場所員工有所增加。所以他們一直在增加員工。所以你真的很全面。你有很好的銷售，很好的留存率。您對保險和現有基地不斷增長的工地員工有更好的依戀。

Yes. And the other -- the only other 2 to round that out is increasing wages and increasing [suda]. So you got really, I don't know there's nice -- a lot more than a trifecta, but a lot of good things going on. We had a really strong PEO quarter. I mean, obviously, the results speak for themselves, but it was a good quarter in PEO land.

是的。另一個——唯一能解決這個問題的另外兩個是增加工資和增加[suda]。所以你真的知道了，我不知道有什麼好的——不僅僅是三連勝，還有很多好事正在發生。我們有一個非常強勁的 PEO 季度。我的意思是，顯然，結果不言自明，但這是 PEO 領域的一個好季度。

Yes. Got it. Got it. So sorry, so your worksite employee growth, was it -- how was it relative to this maybe 21% number? I assume it was lower since there were other factors, but can you give us a sense of where it was?

是的。知道了。知道了。很抱歉，所以你的工作場所員工增長，是嗎 - 相對於這個可能 21% 的數字，它如何？我認為它較低，因為還有其他因素，但你能告訴我們它在哪裡嗎？

Can you give us some of the worksite employee growth?

你能給我們一些工地員工的成長嗎？

No. no. We'll update that, Eugene, at year-end -- we don't separate out PEO, so you're not disappointed, but we -- it's included in our overall worksite employees served, in our HR outsourcing businesses. But the numbers, it's -- both have been pretty robust growth.

不，不。尤金，我們將在年底更新這一點——我們不會將 PEO 分開，所以你不會失望，但我們——它包含在我們所服務的整個工作場所員工中，在我們的人力資源外包業務中。但數字，它 - 兩者都非常強勁的增長。

Our next question comes from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

I wanted to follow up on previous question and some of your commentary. First, on your own customer retention. Obviously, great work there. And you continue to operate at record levels and not really seeing the softening that you had anticipated maybe a couple of quarters ago. But I'm wondering like how are you adjusting your planning for that long-term retention level? And what should we think that, that could baseline at down the road?

我想跟進上一個問題和您的一些評論。首先，關於您自己的客戶保留率。顯然，那裡做得很好。而且您繼續以創紀錄的水平運營，並沒有真正看到您可能在幾個季度前預期的疲軟。但我想知道您如何調整長期保留水平的計劃？我們應該怎麼想，這可能會成為未來的基準？

Well, I think right now, as I've said, it's a little dicey given, okay, we had some government stimulus that they were able to -- some clients were able to take advantage of. At the same time, you've got raising -- rising inflation, and then supply chain hopefully getting better. So you've got a lot of macro things going on at the same time.

好吧，我認為現在，正如我所說，這有點冒險，好吧，我們有一些政府刺激措施，他們能夠 - 一些客戶能夠利用。與此同時，你已經得到了提高——通脹上升，然後供應鏈有望變得更好。所以你有很多宏觀的事情同時發生。

Right now, we'd expect that it's still going to be strong. I don't -- based on how we are year-to-date, we've said we're not at record levels that we had last year, but we're better than pre-pandemic. We would expect that we continue to be at better than pre-pandemic levels, that we have added a lot of value to our clients, and that it will continue to be strong. I think that's how we feel. But there's a lot of macro stuff that could go on there with -- again, with bankruptcies and things like that, that right now, we haven't seen. So our expectation going forward is that we're at a pretty similar level to where we are right now.

現在，我們預計它仍然會很強大。我沒有——根據我們年初至今的情況，我們已經說過我們沒有達到去年的創紀錄水平，但我們比大流行前要好。我們預計我們將繼續處於比大流行前更好的水平，我們為客戶增加了很多價值，並且它將繼續保持強勁。我想這就是我們的感受。但是有很多宏觀的東西可以繼續存在 - 再次，破產和類似的事情，現在，我們還沒有看到。因此，我們對未來的期望是，我們處於與現在非常相似的水平。

Got it. No, that's actually really helpful context. And then as far as your investment that you've called out multiple times here and what you want to do, at least in the period in which you're giving guidance over the next quarter or so and then how we should think about that longer term. Can you talk a little bit about where you're seeing opportunities for organic investment and what's the time to payback on those, and what we should be looking for either from a product or service perspective as you continue to invest there?

知道了。不，這實際上是非常有用的上下文。然後就你在這裡多次呼籲的投資以及你想做的事情而言，至少在你在下個季度左右提供指導的時期內，然後我們應該如何考慮更長的時間學期。你能談談你在哪裡看到有機投資的機會，什麼時候可以回報這些機會，以及當你繼續在那裡投資時，我們應該從產品或服務的角度尋找什麼？

Yes. I think it's definitely 2 main things, which would -- well, maybe 3. So you've got sales investment, so we'll be continuing to invest in our sales teams. We'll be growing the sales team in select markets.

是的。我認為這絕對是兩件主要的事情，可能是三件。所以你有銷售投資，所以我們將繼續投資於我們的銷售團隊。我們將在特定市場發展銷售團隊。

But we really across the board see better opportunities for investing in sales. Two is marketing costs. We'll continue to invest in marketing. It's driving a lot of leads into the business, and that's the way people are obviously searching and buying now. So we're going to continue to see that investment go up, and it's not getting any less expensive to do it.

但我們確實看到了更好的銷售投資機會。二是營銷成本。我們將繼續投資於營銷。它為業務帶來了很多潛在客戶，這就是人們現在搜索和購買的方式。因此，我們將繼續看到投資增加，而且這樣做的成本並沒有降低。

And I'd say 3 would be product. We're going to see new product -- as you've seen from us, we've had new product releases basically every season. We kind of look at them as a season type of thing. And in the spring and summer season, we'll have continued new products that we've rolled out. We just released kind of talked about our winter release now going into the spring release. You're going to just see continued product enhancements to what we have.

我會說 3 將是產品。我們將看到新產品——正如您從我們那裡看到的那樣，我們基本上每個季節都有新產品發布。我們將它們視為一種季節類型的東西。在春季和夏季，我們將繼續推出我們推出的新產品。我們剛剛發布了關於我們的冬季版本現在進入春季版本的討論。您將看到對我們現有產品的持續改進。

It is going to -- we continue to do a lot, again, as I said, with our data and from a digital standpoint and really maximizing the use of that mobile app so that we can build even more retention strength with the employees of our clients. They're the ones that are using that mobile app and always have, even more than our clients. So we're giving -- trying to give our clients' employees everything they possibly can on their mobile app to produce better retention for us and not allow their employer to leave Paychex or want to leave Paychex. Just like the time and attendance, just like punching in and out, shift swapping and being able to do things like -- when we hire someone, everything is digital now. Everything is paperless.

它將——正如我所說，我們將繼續做很多事情，再次，從我們的數據和數字的角度來看，並真正最大限度地利用該移動應用程序，以便我們可以與我們的員工建立更多的保留力客戶。他們是使用該移動應用程序的人，並且總是擁有，甚至比我們的客戶更多。因此，我們正在給予 - 試圖在他們的移動應用程序上為我們客戶的員工提供他們可能提供的一切，以便為我們提供更好的保留，並且不允許他們的雇主離開 Paychex 或想要離開 Paychex。就像時間和出勤率，就像打卡，輪班交換和能夠做這樣的事情 - 當我們僱用某人時，現在一切都是數字化的。一切都是無紙化的。

From the time we post with Indeed, we have that automatic integration with Indeed. You can post on Indeed, the world's largest job site. That's brought -- that client is -- or that prospect or applicant is brought in without paper. When they hire them, it's brought on in onboarding. You're going to just see us continue to build out our HR suite where everything is around that mobile app to build strength and sustainability for the client.

從我們在 Indeed 上發帖開始，我們就與 Indeed 實現了自動集成。您可以在全球最大的求職網站 Indeed 上發帖。那是帶來的——那個客戶是——或者那個潛在客戶或申請人是在沒有紙的情況下被帶進來的。當他們僱用他們時，它會被引入入職。您將看到我們繼續構建我們的人力資源套件，其中一切都圍繞該移動應用程序，以增強客戶的實力和可持續性。

Our next question comes from Mark Macron (sic) [Marcon] with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mark Macron (sic) [Marcon] 和 Baird。

Congratulations on the strong quarter. Wondering a little bit on the new sales. It sounds like things are going really well there. I'm wondering if you can comment a little bit about, are you seeing any sort of change in terms of the source of new sales -- are you -- you mentioned your largest competitor and being a net gainer there. But relative to everybody else that the public companies know about or the public companies that are out there or also just the local and regionals and any sort of upshift in terms of on-premise systems. Both as it relates to your core-sized clients and then also the progress that you're making on the mid-sized clients.

祝賀強勁的季度。有點想知道新的銷售情況。聽起來那裡的事情進展得很順利。我想知道你是否可以評論一下，你是否看到新銷售來源方面的任何變化 - 你是否 - 你提到了你最大的競爭對手並在那裡成為淨收益者。但相對於上市公司所了解的其他所有人，或者那裡的上市公司，或者也只是本地和區域性的，以及就內部部署系統而言的任何形式的升級。既與您的核心客戶有關，也與您在中型客戶身上取得的進展有關。

I'd say on the small side, market continues to be really online. Even a little bit less from -- it's still pretty strong from CPA referrals and client -- existing client referrals. But more and more of those, we've seen -- and this is over the last few years, it -- maybe in the old days, the CPA would refer us and then the call would come right to us. The CPA may now refer us, but someone then looks and comes in through the web and to buy. So we're definitely seeing an increase from web sales, particularly in the low end, and you're going to see even more of those sales come in on a self-serve onboarding basis where the client can sign themselves up and come in search. So it's going to be -- and then of course, we've learned that with all of -- virtually all of the salespeople working remotely and virtually, that has been very strong for sales to come in and be sold over the phone or over the web.

我想說的是，市場仍然是真正在線的。來自 CPA 推薦和客戶 - 現有客戶推薦的情況甚至會少一點。但是越來越多的，我們已經看到了——這是在過去的幾年裡，它——也許在過去，註冊會計師會推薦我們，然後電話就會直接找我們。註冊會計師現在可能會推薦我們，但隨後會有人通過網絡查看並進入併購買。因此，我們肯定會看到網絡銷售的增長，尤其是在低端銷售，而且您會看到更多的銷售是在自助式入職的基礎上進行的，客戶可以自己註冊並進行搜索.所以這將是——當然，我們已經了解到，幾乎所有的銷售人員都在遠程和虛擬地工作，這對於通過電話或通過電話進行銷售的銷售來說非常強勁網絡。

I think on the mid-market side, yes, I think we've done very well against the competitors that you know well and cover. And we've taken some back -- some clients back that have left us and found, as Efrain mentioned very eloquently earlier, that we have a total platform. You can buy certain pieces of it, but we have a total product set, not just 1 platform to have your payroll on and then connect to everybody else. We have everything if you want it, and makes it much more seamless. And we also can keep whatever components you want on your own and API into virtually anybody through a marketplace. So I think we've seen, yes, definitely a growth in the opportunity to take back some share from competitors, and we think that's going to certainly continue as we continue to add product.

我認為在中端市場方面，是的，我認為我們在對抗您熟知並涵蓋的競爭對手方面做得非常好。我們已經收回了一些 - 一些離開我們的客戶回來了，正如 Efrain 之前非常雄辯地提到的那樣，我們有一個完整的平台。您可以購買其中的某些部分，但我們有一個完整的產品集，而不僅僅是一個平台讓您的工資單上然後連接到其他人。如果您需要，我們擁有一切，並使其更加無縫。而且我們還可以通過市場將您想要的任何組件和 API 保留在幾乎任何人身上。所以我認為我們已經看到，是的，從競爭對手那里奪回一些份額的機會肯定會增加，我們認為隨著我們繼續增加產品，這種情況肯定會繼續下去。

Great. And then can you talk a little bit on the PEO side in terms of the strong growth that you're experiencing there? How much of it is coming from upsells as opposed to new logos?

偉大的。然後你能談談你在那裡經歷的強勁增長嗎？其中有多少來自追加銷售而不是新徽標？

I think you'd see a majority probably from upsell, but there's plenty of new logos now that are coming in, new businesses that for the first time are -- and especially in those states where we're prominent, the Florida, the Georgia, the Texas -- they're new to PEO and are not necessarily coming from ASO. But I would say a slight majority are still upsales, we're really good at that. They know us, and there's a great close rate there. Saying, hey, you're on payroll-only or maybe you're ASO, but you want to go to a better benefit opportunities, better benefit plans and go into the PEO where you're kind of in those shared plans and so forth. So I'd say a slight majority is from upsales. But plenty of new logos. We've really been very successful, obviously, if you're growing over 20% in the quarter.

我認為您可能會看到大部分可能來自追加銷售，但現在有很多新徽標正在出現，新業務首次出現 - 特別是在我們突出的那些州，佛羅里達州，佐治亞州，德克薩斯州——他們是 PEO 的新手，不一定來自 ASO。但我想說，仍有一小部分是追加銷售，我們真的很擅長。他們認識我們，而且接近率很高。說，嘿，你只是在工資單上，或者你可能是 ASO，但你想獲得更好的福利機會，更好的福利計劃並進入你在那些共享計劃中的那種 PEO 等等.所以我會說一小部分來自追加銷售。但是很多新的標誌。顯然，如果您在本季度增長超過 20%，我們確實非常成功。

Great. And then 2 sort of related macro questions. One, just in terms of the preliminary thoughts with regards to '23, how are you thinking about float balance growth? That's one. And then two, just a clarification with regards to the tempering of expectations. Are you actually seeing anything that's actually occurring on the ground? Or is your comment more related to just the expectation that there would be some reason for tempering, obviously, if rates end up going up significantly?

偉大的。然後是2種相關的宏觀問題。一，就'23的初步想法而言，您如何看待浮動餘額增長？那是一個。然後是兩個，只是對期望的緩和的澄清。你真的看到了地面上實際發生的任何事情嗎？或者，如果利率最終大幅上漲，您的評論是否與預期會有一些緩和的理由更相關？

I think it's more of the latter, Mark, on that question. Look, hey, it's all fun and games to say that we're going to get all the benefit from 6, 7, 8 raises depending on your perspective, but you've got to be somewhat cautious about what the impact on the economy as a whole, especially on the small end of the market would be. We don't have any crystal ball. You have a better 1 than we do, but that's an issue that we need to realize because the Fed will take and the Fed will give and we're trying to analyze how all of that looks.

在這個問題上，我認為更多的是後者，馬克。看，嘿，根據你的觀點，說我們將從 6、7、8 次加薪中獲得所有好處是很有趣和遊戲的，但你必須對經濟的影響保持謹慎一個整體，尤其是小端市場會。我們沒有水晶球。你有一個比我們更好的 1，但這是我們需要意識到的一個問題，因為美聯儲將接受，美聯儲將給予，我們正試圖分析所有這些看起來如何。

With respect to balance growth, I would say it's probably going to be low single digits to the mid-single digits at this point, depending on what's happening with wage inflation and the other factors that go -- and insurances.

關於平衡增長，我想說，此時可能會從低個位數到中個位數，這取決於工資通脹的情況以及其他因素 - 以及保險。

At this point, that's what our thought process is. We've had a pretty robust growth this year, obviously, the recovery in wages and in clients, it's helped a lot. So it will moderate a bit next year.

在這一點上，這就是我們的思維過程。今年我們的增長非常強勁，很明顯，工資和客戶的複蘇，幫助很大。所以明年會有所緩和。

Our next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

Great results and profitability. I wanted to quickly if you don't mind, just 1 question, ask about existing versus new client revenue growth? I'm just thinking about what you said, I think, Efrain, you said it, or maybe it was Marty. Double-digit annualized contract value growth, sounded like it was broad-based. So just trying to disaggregate that comment with the growth outlook thinking about it between new client versus existing client, if that makes sense. Just because it seems like your first look at '23 is pretty consistent with what we typically would observe. But I just want to make sure the composition isn't different.

偉大的結果和盈利能力。如果您不介意，我想快速詢問一下現有客戶與新客戶的收入增長情況，只需 1 個問題？我只是在想你說的話，我想，Efrain，你說的，或者可能是 Marty。兩位數的年化合同價值增長，聽起來基礎廣泛。因此，如果有意義的話，只需嘗試將這一評論與新客戶與現有客戶之間的增長前景考慮分開。僅僅因為您第一次看到 '23 似乎與我們通常觀察到的非常一致。但我只是想確保組成沒有什麼不同。

Yes. So let me take that, Tien-Tsin. So I think it is pretty consistent with what we observed. We typically are going to generate about half of our new logos, if you will, from newly formed businesses. We expect that to continue going into next year.

是的。所以讓我接受，Tien-Tsin。所以我認為這與我們觀察到的非常一致。如果您願意，我們通常會從新成立的企業中生成大約一半的新徽標。我們預計這種情況將持續到明年。

And then with the normal amount of upsell and cross-sell and growth in revenue per client that we end up getting. So obviously the net adds will come, half of it will come from newly formed business -- or new sales will come from newly formed businesses. And then there was 1 thing that I highlighted that's important is -- and I think it was in response to Kevin's question. We're seeing more opportunity to add revenue online as we see more opportunity for the kinds of services that, for example, ERTC and [wow]. So it's -- it's easy to overlook that, but it's part of the way, as Marty said, it's part of who we are.

然後隨著我們最終獲得的正常數量的追加銷售和交叉銷售以及每位客戶的收入增長。所以很明顯，淨增加會來，其中一半將來自新成立的業務——或者新的銷售額將來自新成立的業務。然後我強調了一件很重要的事情——我認為這是對凱文的問題的回應。我們看到了更多在線增加收入的機會，因為我們看到了更多服務類型的機會，例如 ERTC 和 [wow]。所以它 - 很容易忽略這一點，但正如馬蒂所說，這是我們的一部分。

Perfect. That's what I needed. Because it looks like you're -- despite the tough comp get sort of right back on what we usually want to expect from Paychex, so.

完美的。這就是我需要的。因為它看起來像你 - 儘管艱難的比賽得到了我們通常希望從 Paychex 得到的東西，所以。

Our next question and our final question for today is from Peter Christiansen with Citi.

我們的下一個問題和今天的最後一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Peter Christiansen。

Great job, guys. Yes, to the degree that you can tell, are you winning new business from previous like self-filers still? Is that still a reasonable pool to draw from on the new sales front?

幹得好，伙計們。是的，據您所知，您是否還在像自我申報者一樣從以前的人那裡贏得新業務？在新的銷售方面，這仍然是一個合理的池子嗎？

Oh, it is, definitely. I mean there's still plenty of small businesses on the small side that are -- have tried to continue to do things themselves. And I do think over the last 2 years, that's become even more difficult, and they're losing a lot of opportunity by not going with someone. It's -- so yes, that's still a great opportunity. It's still a big piece of the pie that's available out there that -- and you're making it easier for them to sign up and do everything themselves, but do it in an automated fashion with someone who has over 200 compliance experts to make sure they're doing it right. So yes, that's still a good opportunity for us. And that's why, as Efrain said, half our sales are coming from new businesses and many of those new businesses may be new, but they might have even tried to do something themselves for a few months or a year before they went to someone like us.

哦，確實如此。我的意思是，仍然有很多小企業在嘗試繼續自己做事。而且我確實認為在過去的兩年中，這變得更加困難，而且他們因為不和某人一起而失去了很多機會。這是 - 所以是的，這仍然是一個很好的機會。它仍然是市場上可用的一大塊蛋糕——而且你讓他們更容易註冊並自己做所有事情，但是以自動化的方式與擁有 200 多名合規專家的人一起完成，以確保他們做得對。所以是的，這對我們來說仍然是一個很好的機會。這就是為什麼，正如 Efrain 所說，我們一半的銷售額來自新業務，其中許多新業務可能是新業務，但他們甚至可能嘗試自己做某事幾個月或一年，然後才去找像我們這樣的人.

That's interesting. And then -- any thoughts on industry consolidation at this point, particularly from, I guess, the more private regional players? Do you see any trends evolving there? And then maybe juxtapose that with how you're thinking about the M&A landscape for Paychex.

那很有意思。然後 - 在這一點上對行業整合有什麼想法，特別是我猜來自更私人的區域參與者？你看到那裡有什麼發展趨勢嗎？然後也許將其與您對 Paychex 併購前景的看法並列。

Yes. I think we've seen some of the smallest ones consolidate. It's just too difficult today for many of them to provide the product suite, too, that people are demanding. And the online presence, the mobile app, the constant increase in product development. They're just not able to keep up -- and all the compliance. I mean -- and the government is not getting any easier to deal with. They want to -- particularly the IRS, they're underbudgeted, they're understaffed. So it's difficult for smaller payroll in particular companies, to keep up with someone like us that has the powerful team behind the products. So I think there is some consolidation there. I wouldn't say any on the larger ones just yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if at some point, it just becomes too difficult to keep up with the investment.

是的。我認為我們已經看到一些最小的合併。今天，他們中的許多人也很難提供人們要求的產品套件。以及在線存在、移動應用程序、產品開發的不斷增加。他們只是無法跟上 - 以及所有的合規性。我的意思是 - 政府並沒有變得更容易處理。他們想要——尤其是美國國稅局，他們的預算不足，人手不足。因此，特定公司的較小工資單很難跟上像我們這樣擁有產品背後強大團隊的人。所以我認為那裡有一些整合。我還不會對較大的項目說任何話，但如果在某個時候，跟上投資變得太難了，我也不會感到驚訝。

From an M&A standpoint, there's still plenty of things that we're looking at in PEOs, payroll, everything and a lot of other opportunities. We're finding opportunities. They're not always panning out. We're very selective. Obviously, we've had a great success rate over the -- particularly over the last 10 years on acquisitions. And we're very careful about what we add, and that the valuation makes sense. And right now, the valuations are still a little lofty, I'd say.

從併購的角度來看，我們仍然在關注 PEO、工資單、一切以及許多其他機會。我們正在尋找機會。他們並不總是成功。我們非常有選擇性。顯然，我們在過去 10 年中取得了很大的成功率——尤其是在過去 10 年的收購中。而且我們對我們添加的內容非常謹慎，並且估值是有道理的。我想說，現在，估值仍然有點高。

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn it back to our presenters for any additional and closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我現在將它轉回給我們的演示者，以獲取任何其他和結束語。

Thank you. At this point, we'll close the call. If you're interested in replaying the webcast, it will be archived for approximately 90 days. Thank you for taking the time to participate in our third quarter earnings release conference call, and for your interest in Paychex. I hope you all continue to remain safe and healthy. Thank you.

謝謝你。此時，我們將關閉通話。如果您有興趣重播網絡廣播，它將被存檔大約 90 天。感謝您抽出時間參加我們的第三季度收益發布電話會議，並感謝您對 Paychex 的興趣。希望大家繼續保持安全和健康。謝謝你。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，今天的活動到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。