沛齊 (PAYX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and welcome to the fourth quarter 2024 Paychex's earnings conference call. With us today are John Gibson and Bob Schrader.

    早安,歡迎參加 Paychex 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我們在一起的有約翰·吉布森和鮑勃·施拉德。

  • (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded and your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, please disconnect at this time.

    (操作員說明)謹此提醒,本次電話會議正在錄音,您的參與即表示您同意我們對本次電話會議進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款,請此時斷開連線。

  • Today's commentary will contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events and therefore involve some risks. In addition, the company will periodically refer to non-GAAP measures, such as adjusted operating income and adjusted diluted earnings per share. Please refer to their press release for further information.

    今天的評論將包含涉及未來事件的前瞻性陳述,因此涉及一些風險。此外,公司將定期參考非公認會計原則衡量標準,例如調整後的營業收入和調整後的稀釋每股盈餘。請參閱他們的新聞稿以了解更多資訊。

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to John Gibson, Paychex President and CEO. Please go ahead.

    我現在想將電話轉給 Paychex 總裁兼執行長約翰·吉布森 (John Gibson)。請繼續。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Thank you for joining us for our review of the Paychex fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 fiscal results. Joining me today is Bob Schrader, our Chief Financial Officer. This morning, before the market opened, we released our financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ending May 31, 2024. You can access our earnings release and investor presentation on our Investor Relations website.

    感謝您與我們一起回顧 Paychex 第四季和 2024 財年的財務表現。今天加入我的是我們的財務長鮑勃‧施拉德 (Bob Schrader)。今天早上,在開盤前,我們發布了截至 2024 年 5 月 31 日的第四季度和財年的財務業績。

  • Our Form 10-K will be filed with the SEC before the end of July. This teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on our website for approximately 90 days.

    我們的 10-K 表格將於 7 月底前向 SEC 提交。本次電話會議將透過網路進行廣播,並將在我們的網站上存檔並提供約 90 天的時間。

  • I'll start the call today with an update on the business highlights for the fourth quarter and fiscal year. Bob will review our financial results for fiscal year '24 and outlook for fiscal year 2025. We'll then open it up for your questions.

    我將在今天的電話會議中介紹第四季和財年業務亮點的最新情況。鮑伯將回顧我們 24 財年的財務表現和 2025 財年的展望。

  • As we close out the fiscal year, I am pleased to report that Paychex delivered solid financial results, reflecting our ability to navigate changing market conditions by providing both innovative HR technology and advisory solutions that continue to deliver value for our clients and their employees. And as the best operators in the business, we are continually find ways to run our business more efficiently.

    在我們結束本財年之際,我很高興地向大家報告,Paychex 取得了穩健的財務業績,這反映出我們有能力透過提供創新的人力資源技術和諮詢解決方案來應對不斷變化的市場條件,從而繼續為我們的客戶及其員工創造價值。作為業內最好的運營商,我們不斷尋找更有效地經營業務的方法。

  • For fiscal 2024, we achieved 5% growth in total revenue and 11% growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share. These results are a testament to the hard work and dedication of our more than 16,000 employees and the investments we have made in our technology in advisory solutions.

    2024 財年,我們實現了總營收成長 5%,調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長 11%。這些結果證明了我們 16,000 多名員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神,以及我們在諮詢解決方案技術方面的投資。

  • Revenue retention remains near record levels and HR outsourcing work site employee retention continued to improve and hit new record levels. We believe our sustained high revenue retention demonstrate that our value proposition is resonating in a competitive marketplace.

    收入留存率仍接近歷史最高水平,人力資源外包工作場所的員工留存率持續提高並創下新紀錄。我們相信,我們持續的高收入保留表明我們的價值主張在競爭激烈的市場中引起共鳴。

  • Our client retention of our fiscal year 2024 was in line with last year and pre-pandemic levels with out-of-business losses back to pre-pandemic levels, but stable. We continue to see demand for our HR technology and advisory solutions.

    我們 2024 財年的客戶保留率與去年和大流行前的水平一致,業務損失回到大流行前的水平,但穩定。我們繼續看到對我們的人力資源技術和諮詢解決方案的需求。

  • Our activity and pipelines remain strong and in fact, increased year over year in the fourth quarter, but close rates were softer than historical norms and our expectations. Sales results in some market segments face headwinds in the quarter. In SMB, we made some adjustments to our go-to-market strategy and in our digital technology stack in the microsegment, which impacted our read and sales volumes. We believe these are one-time issues which we have addressed.

    我們的活動和管道仍然強勁,事實上,第四季度同比有所增加,但成交率低於歷史正常水平和我們的預期。本季某些細分市場的銷售業績面臨阻力。在中小型企業中,我們對市場進入策略和微細分市場的數位技術堆疊進行了一些調整,這影響了我們的閱讀量和銷售量。我們相信這些都是我們已經解決的一次性問題。

  • In the mid-market, we have seen some of the same pressures our competitors have mentioned with delays decision making and increased focus on cost. Our HR outsourcing both ASO and PEO and our retirement business continued to perform well, and we believe the value proposition for those solutions remains strong.

    在中端市場,我們看到了競爭對手提到的一些相同的壓力,包括延遲決策和更多關注成本。我們的人力資源外包 ASO 和 PEO 以及我們的退休業務繼續表現良好,我們相信這些解決方案的價值主張仍然強勁。

  • The breadth of our solutions, both technology and complete outsourcing advisory solutions, along with the market segments we serve, provides us with the ability to pivot our sales and marketing of investments as market conditions change to maximize the opportunity.

    我們解決方案的廣度,包括技術和完整的外包諮詢解決方案,以及我們服務的細分市場,使我們能夠隨著市場條件的變化調整投資的銷售和行銷,以最大限度地利用機會。

  • Small and midsize businesses continue to face a challenging operating environment due to complex regulations, a historically tight labor market, and persistent inflationary pressures. Our small business employment watch has shown stabilization in job growth and continued downward pressure in hourly wages in recent months.

    由於複雜的法規、歷史上緊張的勞動力市場以及持續的通膨壓力,中小企業繼續面臨充滿挑戰的經營環境。我們的小型企業就業觀察顯示,近幾個月就業成長穩定,時薪面臨持續下行壓力。

  • In fact, our May index posted the biggest one month increase in job growth this year. We also saw improvements in hiring within our client base with both better checks per client and worksite employee growth in the quarter after a few quarters of declines.

    事實上,我們 5 月的就業成長指數創下了今年以來最大單月增幅。我們也看到客戶群的招募有所改善,在經歷了幾個季度的下降之後,本季每個客戶的檢查和工作場所員工的成長都得到了改善。

  • As we mentioned last quarter, our data and conversations with clients with clients reveal they are having a tough time finding qualified candidates. As an innovative leader in our industry, we took this as an opportunity to find a way to help these businesses by launching a new program starting in our PEO called the Employer of Choice Playbook.

    正如我們上季度提到的,我們的數據以及與客戶的對話表明,他們很難找到合格的候選人。作為我們行業的創新領導者,我們以此為契機,透過在我們的 PEO 中啟動一項名為「首選雇主手冊」的新計劃來尋找幫助這些企業的方法。

  • This program combines our digital HR technology and analytics with our dedicated HR professionals to work directly with our clients to find and attract, hire and retain qualified employees. It starts with our digital recruiting and hiring technology, which provides both seamless integrations with the top job boards. This solution streamlines and automates the hiring process for the employer and provides a better candidate experience.

    該計劃將我們的數位人力資源技術和分析與我們專門的人力資源專業人員結合起來,直接與我們的客戶合作,尋找、吸引、僱用和留住合格的員工。它始於我們的數位招聘和招聘技術,該技術提供與頂級招聘委員會的無縫整合。該解決方案簡化並自動化了雇主的招募流程,並提供了更好的候選人體驗。

  • Our PEO clients are able to attract top talent by offering a Fortune 500 suite of employee wellness benefits as well. To help them retain employees, our HR professionals proactively work with our clients to leverage our HR data analytics, and we are retention insights to identify at-risk employees, determine the top drivers of turnover, and implement strategies to engage and develop their people.

    我們的 PEO 客戶還能夠透過提供財富 500 強的員工健康福利來吸引頂尖人才。為了幫助他們留住員工,我們的人力資源專業人員積極與客戶合作,利用我們的人力資源數據分析,我們透過保留洞察力來識別有風險的員工,確定流動率的主要驅動因素,並實施吸引和發展員工的策略。

  • We are excited to offer a comprehensive solution to help our clients solve one of their biggest problems, hiring and retaining talented employees. We are planning more innovations in this area for all our market segments in the coming fiscal year.

    我們很高興能夠提供全面的解決方案來幫助我們的客戶解決他們最大的問題之一,即僱用和留住有才華的員工。我們計劃在下一財年為所有細分市場在這一領域進行更多創新。

  • Our PEO business has continued to gain momentum with excellent performance in fiscal year 2024. We finished the year with strong results and sales, retention, and insurance enrollment. We have continued to see a shift back towards the PEO offering, both inside and outside our client base. This mix shift value our model, particularly as clients attach insurance benefits.

    我們的 PEO 業務在 2024 財年繼續保持強勁勢頭,表現出色。我們繼續看到我們的客戶群內部和外部都轉向 PEO 產品。這種混合轉變對我們的模型很有價值,特別是當客戶附加保險福利時。

  • Our retirement services business was another strong contributor in the fourth quarter with double-digit revenue growth. As the industry leader in 401(k) plan record-keeping in the US with approximately $52 billion in assets under management and over 120,000 clients, we are dedicated to helping small and midsized business owners, offering an affordable retirement solution for their employees.

    我們的退休服務業務是第四季度的另一個強勁貢獻者,營收成長了兩位數。作為美國401(k) 計劃記錄保存方面的行業領導者,我們管理著約520 億美元的資產和超過120,000 名客戶,我們致力於幫助中小型企業主,為其員工提供負擔得起的退休解決方案。

  • According to our own data, less than half of US employers currently offer a retirement plan. We are committed to providing affordable solutions to these companies that will help them offer their employees the opportunity for a secure retirement. Legislation like the SECURE Act and SECURE Act 2.0, the introduction of pooled employer plans, and state mandates are helping to address the growing retirement crisis in the US, but there is still more to be done.

    根據我們自己的數據,目前只有不到一半的美國雇主提供退休計畫。我們致力於為這些公司提供負擔得起的解決方案,幫助他們為員工提供安全退休的機會。 《SECURE 法案》和《SECURE 法案 2.0》等立法、集體雇主計劃的引入以及各州的強制規定正在幫助解決美國日益嚴重的退休危機,但仍有更多工作要做。

  • We are committed to educating business owners in industry professionals on available program, potential tax benefits, and the cost-effective plans available to them and their employees by Paychex.

    我們致力於向行業專業人士中的企業主提供有關 Paychex 為他們及其員工提供的可用計劃、潛在稅收優惠以及具有成本效益的計劃的教育。

  • As you know, AI has been a hot topic in our industry and is something we have focused on for many years. Our AI initiatives and investments have been centered around enhancing our customer service model and identifying clients that are at risk, optimizing our pricing and discounting strategies, and driving higher sales productivity through improved marketing and targeting efforts.

    大家知道,人工智慧一直是我們產業的熱門話題,也是我們多年來一直在關注的話題。我們的人工智慧計畫和投資的重點是增強我們的客戶服務模式,識別面臨風險的客戶,優化我們的定價和折扣策略,並透過改善行銷和定位工作來提高銷售效率。

  • Additionally, we are focused on harnessing the power of our vast data to drive more value for our customers and continue to drive greater operational efficiencies across the company.

    此外,我們致力於利用大量資料的力量為客戶創造更多價值,並持續提高整個公司的營運效率。

  • We continue to gain recognition for the strength of our technology. For the fifth consecutive year, Paychex Flex, the company's cloud-based SaaS solution earned an HR Tech award for best small-business-focused solution in the core HR and workforce category from White House Research and Advisory.

    我們的技術實力不斷獲得認可。該公司基於雲端的 SaaS 解決方案 Paychex Flex 連續第五年榮獲白宮研究與諮詢中心頒發的人力資源技術獎,以表彰核心人力資源和勞動力類別中最佳小型企業解決方案。

  • For the 10th time, Paychex was name among the best employers in excellence in health and well-being, which affirms our long-standing commitment to our own employees. Paychex was also recently recognized by Forbes as one of the America's best employers for diversity.

    Paychex 第十次被評為健康和福祉卓越雇主之一,這肯定了我們對員工的長期承諾。 Paychex 最近也被《富比士》評為美國多元化最佳雇主之一。

  • These recognitions and the many product and service awards that we have received in the last year and over the decades were our testament to the strength of our business model, our culture, and our commitment to invest in our business to deliver long-term value for our customers and our investors.

    這些認可以及我們在過去一年和幾十年來獲得的許多產品和服務獎項證明了我們的業務模式、我們的文化的實力以及我們對投資業務以為客戶提供長期價值的承諾。 。

  • In this post-pandemic era, Paychex's uniquely positioned to help small and mid-sized businesses navigate the challenges they face in an ever-evolving world, and we believe our value proposition to these businesses remains compelling based upon the breadth and quality of the solutions we can't provide. We remain committed to our purpose to help businesses succeed while making a positive impact on our clients, employees, communities, and shareholders.

    在這個後疫情時代,Paychex 擁有獨特的優勢,可以幫助中小型企業應對不斷變化的世界中面臨的挑戰,我們相信,基於解決方案的廣度和質量,我們對這些企業的價值主張仍然引人注目。我們無法提供。我們始終致力於幫助企業取得成功,同時對我們的客戶、員工、社區和股東產生正面影響。

  • I'll now turn it over to Bob to give us a brief update on our financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year.

    現在我將把它交給鮑勃,向我們簡要介紹第四季度和財年的財務業績。

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a summary of our fourth quarter and full-year financial results and review our fiscal '25 outlook.

    謝謝約翰,大家早安。我將首先總結我們第四季度和全年的財務業績,並回顧我們的 25 財年展望。

  • Total revenue increased 5% to $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter, which reflects a lower contribution from our ERTC service, and this impacted our revenue growth by approximately 300 basis points in the quarter. Management solutions revenue increased 3% to $930 million. This was driven primarily by growth in the number of clients served across our HCM solutions and increase product penetration, partially offset by lower ERTC revenue.

    第四季總營收成長 5%,達到 13 億美元,反映出我們 ERTC 服務的貢獻較低,影響了我們本季營收成長約 300 個基點。管理解決方案營收成長 3%,達到 9.3 億美元。這主要是由於我們的 HCM 解決方案所服務的客戶數量的增長以及產品滲透率的提高所推動的,但 ERTC 收入的下降部分抵消了這一增長。

  • PEO and insurance solutions revenue increased 9% to $327 million. This is primarily driven by higher average worksite employees and an increase in our PEO insurance revenues. Our PEO saw continued momentum in worksite employee growth and medical plan participant volumes during the fourth quarter.

    PEO 和保險解決方案收入成長 9%,達到 3.27 億美元。這主要是由於平均工作場所員工數量的增加和 PEO 保險收入的增加。第四季度,我們的 PEO 看到工作場所員工成長和醫療計畫參與者數量持續成長。

  • Interest on funds held for clients increased 54% to $38 million. This was primarily due to higher average interest rates and invested balances and lower realized losses on investment sales related to some repositioning of the portfolio that happened in the prior year period.

    為客戶持有的資金利息增加了 54%,達到 3,800 萬美元。這主要是由於平均利率和投資餘額較高,以及與上一年期間發生的投資組合重新定位相關的投資銷售已實現損失較低。

  • During the fourth quarter, we did recognize a one-time charge of $39 million related to cost optimization initiatives. These initiatives include a reduction of our underutilized real estate, a reprioritization of our technology investments towards AI, and headcount optimization. These measures, along with strong expense management during the year will allow us to reallocate resources to invest in our strategic priorities as well as continued to deliver operating margin expansion for fiscal '25 despite the expiration of the ERTC program.

    在第四季度,我們確實確認了與成本優化計劃相關的 3,900 萬美元一次性費用。這些舉措包括減少未充分利用的房地產、重新調整人工智慧技術投資的優先順序以及員工人數優化。這些措施,加上今年強有力的費用管理,將使我們能夠重新分配資源,投資於我們的戰略重點,並在 ERTC 計劃到期的情況下,繼續實現 25 財年營業利潤率的擴張。

  • Including these charges, total expenses increased 5% to $813 million. Excluding these charges, total expenses were relatively flat for the fourth quarter as compared to the prior year period.

    包括這些費用在內,總支出增加了 5%,達到 8.13 億美元。排除這些費用,第四季的總費用與去年同期相比相對持平。

  • Operating income increased 6% to $482 million for the operating margin of 37.2%. Adjusted operating income, which excludes the one-time costs recognized in the fourth quarter grew 15% to $521 million, with an adjusted operating margin of 40.2%. And this represents 330 basis points of margin expansion over the prior year period.

    營業收入成長 6%,達到 4.82 億美元,營業利益率為 37.2%。調整後營業收入(不包括第四季確認的一次性成本)成長了 15%,達到 5.21 億美元,調整後營業利潤率為 40.2%。這意味著利潤率較上年同期成長了 330 個基點。

  • Diluted earnings per share increased 8% to $1.5 per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 15% to $1.12 in the fourth quarter.

    第四季稀釋每股收益成長 8%,達到 1.5 美元,調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長 15%,達到 1.12 美元。

  • Now I will quickly summarize our full-year results. Total revenue grew 5% to $5.3 billion and reflects a lower contribution from our ERTC service. And that impacted growth about 100 basis points on a full-year basis. Management solutions revenue increased 4% to $3.9 billion. PEO and insurance solutions increased 8% to $1.3 billion. Interest on fund sales for clients increased 47% to $146 million.

    現在我將快速總結我們的全年業績。總營收成長 5%,達到 53 億美元,反映出我們 ERTC 服務的貢獻下降。這對全年成長產生了約 100 個基點的影響。管理解決方案營收成長 4%,達到 39 億美元。 PEO 和保險解決方案成長了 8%,達到 13 億美元。客戶基金銷售利息增加了 47%,達到 1.46 億美元。

  • Total expenses grew 4% to $3.1 billion. Excluding the one-time costs I discussed earlier, expense growth was approximately 3% for the year. Operating income increased 7% to $2.2 billion, and adjusted operating income increased 9% to $2.2 billion, with a margin of 41.9%, and that's an expansion of 130 basis points over the prior year period. Diluted earnings per share increased 9% to $4.67 per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 11% to $4.72 per share.

    總支出成長 4%,達到 31 億美元。除去我之前討論的一次性成本,這一年的費用增長約為 3%。營業收入成長 7%,達到 22 億美元,調整後營業收入成長 9%,達到 22 億美元,利潤率為 41.9%,比去年同期成長 130 個基點。稀釋每股收益成長 9%,至每股 4.67 美元,調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長 11%,至每股 4.72 美元。

  • Our financial position remained strong at the end of the year with cash, restricted cash, and total corporate investments of $1.6 billion in total borrowings of approximately $817 million. Our cash flow from operations for the year was $1.9 billion, and that's up 11% from the prior year. That was driven primarily by higher net income and fluctuations in working capital.

    截至年底,我們的財務狀況依然強勁,現金、限制性現金和企業投資總額為 16 億美元,借款總額約為 8.17 億美元。我們今年的營運現金流為 19 億美元,比上年成長 11%。這主要是由於淨利潤增加和營運資本波動所致。

  • We returned $1.5 billion to shareholders during the year. That included $1.3 billion of dividends and $169 million of share buybacks. And our 12-month rolling return on equity remains robust at 47%.

    這一年我們向股東返還了 15 億美元。其中包括 13 億美元的股息和 1.69 億美元的股票回購。我們的 12 個月滾動股本回報率仍保持在 47% 的強勁水準。

  • I will now turn to our guidance for the fiscal year 2025. This outlook assumes the current macro environment, which has some level of uncertainty. Our current outlook is as follows.

    我現在將談談我們對 2025 財年的指導。我們目前的展望如下。

  • Total revenue is expected to grow in the range of 4% to 5.5%. If you take the midpoint of this range, that is consistent with the preliminary thinking we provided last quarter. And as a reminder, this includes approximately 200 basis points of headwind from the expiration of ERTC.

    總收入預計將成長4%至5.5%。如果取該範圍的中點,則與我們上季提供的初步想法一致。提醒一下,這包括 ERTC 到期帶來的約 200 個基點的逆風。

  • Adjusted diluted earnings per shares elected to grow in the range of 5% to 7%. I will now give you the breakdown of some of the components. Management solutions is expected to grow in the range of 3% to 4%. PEO and insurance solutions is expected to grow in the range of 7% to 9%. Interest on funds held for clients is expected to be in the range of $150 million to $160 million.

    調整後的稀釋每股盈餘選擇在5%至7%的範圍內成長。現在我將向您詳細介紹一些組件。管理解決方案預計將成長 3% 至 4%。 PEO 和保險解決方案預計將成長 7% 至 9%。為客戶持有的資金利息預計在 1.5 億至 1.6 億美元之間。

  • Other income net is expected to be income in the range of $35 million to $40 million. Those last two metrics, both impacted by short-term interest rates. We can talk more in the Q&A, but it is our expectation that the Fed begins to lower short-term interest rates as we get into the back half of the year.

    其他收入淨額預計為 3,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元。最後兩個指標都受到短期利率的影響。我們可以在問答中談論更多,但我們預計聯準會將在進入下半年時開始降低短期利率。

  • Operating income margin is expected to be in the range of 42% to 43%. This is also consistent with our preliminary expectations around margin expansion and our effective tax rate is expected to be in the range of 24% to 25%.

    營業利潤率預計在 42% 至 43% 之間。這也符合我們對利潤率擴張的初步預期,我們的有效稅率預計在 24% 至 25% 範圍內。

  • Turning to the quarter, we anticipate total revenue growth of approximately 2%. The first-quarter growth rate is impacted by two headwinds. The first is the ERTC headwind that you're all familiar with. The second one is one less processing day in the quarter versus the prior year, and it's one of our largest revenue days. Combined, these two items represent a headwind of more than 400 basis points to revenue growth.

    談到本季度,我們預計總收入成長約為 2%。第一季的成長率受到兩個不利因素的影響。第一個是你們都熟悉的 ERTC 逆風。第二個是本季比前一年少一個處理日,這是我們收入最高的日之一。這兩項合計對收入成長構成超過 400 個基點的阻力。

  • We would also expect an operating margin in the room range of 40% to 41% in the quarter. Of course, all of this is based on our current assumptions, which are subject to change. We'll update you again on the first quarter call. I will refer you to our investor slides on our website for additional information. And with that, I'll now turn the call back over to John.

    我們也預期本季的營業利潤率為 40% 至 41%。當然,所有這些都是基於我們當前的假設,這些假設可能會改變。我們將在第一季電話會議上再次向您通報最新情況。我將向您推薦我們網站上的投資者幻燈片以獲取更多資訊。這樣,我現在將把電話轉回給約翰。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Thank you, Bob. We will now open the call for questions.

    謝謝你,鮑伯。我們現在開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Bryan Bergin, TD Cowen.

    (操作員說明)Bryan Bergin,TD Cowen。

  • Bryan Bergin - Analyst

    Bryan Bergin - Analyst

  • Hi, guys. Good morning. Thank you. And maybe we'll just kick off with the demand and go-to-market commentary that you had there, John. Can you just give more color on your comments on the lower close rates? And the go-to-market changes you think you're making? I'm curious about what was required because of something in your strategy and sales practices or reactions here.

    嗨,大家好。早安.謝謝。也許我們會從您那裡的需求和上市評論開始,約翰。您能否對較低的成交率發表更多評論?您認為自己正在做出哪些進入市場的改變?我很好奇由於你們的策略和銷售實踐或反應中的某些內容而需要什麼。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yeah, Bryan, just step back. I'd say, we had solid demand on our solutions for the year. Activity was high across the teams. As we talked about, and you can tell from the results, the HR outsourcing and HR advisory areas are really picking up attraction with the market. That's what we're seeing versus the pure tech. And so we certainly are pivoting heavy into that. Retirement also is another area where we can see that.

    是的,布萊恩,退後一步。我想說,今年我們對解決方案有著強勁的需求。各個團隊的活動都很活躍。正如我們所討論的,從結果中可以看出,人力資源外包和人力資源諮詢領域確實越來越受到市場的青睞。這就是我們所看到的與純粹技術的對比。因此,我們當然正在大力轉向這一點。退休也是我們可以看到這一點的另一個領域。

  • So look, we see good demand for our products. The changes we're making are really -- we talked about it on the last call, we're really re-looking at, as you can imagine, we just went through the last three years of a pandemic year.

    所以看,我們看到對我們產品的良好需求。我們正在做出的改變確實是——我們在上次電話會議上談到了這一點,我們真的在重新審視,正如你可以想像的那樣,我們剛剛經歷了大流行年的最後三年。

  • As the ERTC program ends, we're really refreshing our entire go-to-market talking points, our sales plays, our marketing position, and really focused on the things that we find clients are most concerned about in today's post-pandemic world. And those things are attracting and retaining qualified employees in the very tight labor market.

    隨著 ERTC 計劃的結束,我們確實正在刷新我們的整個上市談話要點、我們的銷售策略、我們的行銷立場,並真正關注我們發現客戶在當今大流行後世界中最關心的事情。這些事情正在非常緊張的勞動市場中吸引和留住合格的員工。

  • The second thing is being able to get access to affordable benefits with health inflation likely to continue to increase, and they've really got to be able to put together a benefits package to be able to go out and compete against larger firms.

    第二件事是,在健康通膨可能繼續上升的情況下,能夠獲得負擔得起的福利,而且他們確實必須能夠制定一套福利方案,以便能夠走出去與大公司競爭。

  • And then the third thing is access to capital in both constrained capital and cost of capital. I think we made a little tuck-in acquisition of a company out there that we're very excited about, and we continue to expand our digital access to fintech so that our clients have access to capital during the payroll process as well. So we're really trying to retrain our sales team on those new areas. We also are pivoting some of our resources into those market segments where we think there's going to be higher growth as we go into fiscal year '25.

    第三件事是在資本受限和資本成本方面獲得資本。我認為我們對一家我們非常興奮的公司進行了一些小額收購,並且我們繼續擴大我們對金融科技的數位訪問,以便我們的客戶在薪資流程中也能獲得資金。因此,我們確實正在努力對這些新領域的銷售團隊進行再培訓。我們也將部分資源投入到我們認為進入 25 財年時將會出現更高成長的細分市場。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin McVeigh, UBS.

    凱文麥克維,瑞銀集團。

  • Kevin McVeigh - Analyst

    Kevin McVeigh - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much, and always super, super helpful commentary. Hey, John, could you maybe talk a little bit about, you know, because I find your commentary in the press release is super helpful. Just it seems like the environment overall, if we're hearing it right, is still relatively tight labor as opposed to maybe some increase in capacity. Maybe, are we right on that?

    偉大的。非常感謝,總是超級非常有幫助的評論。嘿,約翰,你能談談嗎,因為我發現你在新聞稿中的評論非常有幫助。如果我們沒聽錯的話,整體環境似乎仍然是勞動力相對緊張,而不是產能增加。也許,我們的觀點是對的嗎?

  • And maybe think about kind of the current environment in terms of clients and where their kind of retention rates are of their employees. Has there been any change at the margin on that? I just want to start there because it feels like some of the macro data, employment-related is slowing a little bit, but it definitely, if I'm understanding right, doesn't seem like you're seeing that yet, or am I not thinking about that right?

    也許可以考慮一下目前的客戶環境以及員工的留任率。邊際上有什麼變化嗎?我只是想從這裡開始,因為感覺一些與就業相關的宏觀數據正在放緩,但如果我理解正確的話,你似乎還沒有看到這一點,或者正在看到這一點。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Look, I think on the macro area, what we continue to see is growth and moderate growth. We continue to see wage inflation cool. I would tell you in May in our report, we had the biggest one-month increase there. As we said in our comments, we actually saw growth in checks and worksite employees in the fourth quarter, and that was a positive trend.

    我認為在宏觀領域,我們繼續看到的是成長和適度成長。我們繼續看到薪資通膨放緩。我會在五月的報告中告訴你,我們在那裡出現了最大的一個月增幅。正如我們在評論中所說,我們實際上看到第四季度的支票和現場員工數量有所增長,這是一個積極的趨勢。

  • We started engaging, because again, when you've got the economy growing at the rate it's growing, our models would suggest that you'd see more hiring. So to your point, what's going on here? And what we did is we went out and started looking at our analytics and data, and to the point, retaining clients is a challenge for small business owners.

    我們開始參與,因為同樣,當經濟以這種速度成長時,我們的模型會顯示你會看到更多的招募。那麼就您而言,這裡發生了什麼事?我們所做的就是出去開始研究我們的分析和數據,就這一點而言,留住客戶對小企業主來說是一個挑戰。

  • Second, attracting qualified. And so we started engaging them. We did a lot of surveys, and what we found was they have open positions. They're just struggling to find them with qualified individuals. And I think another thing they learned during the pandemic, when everyone was just trying to hire just anybody, that hiring just anybody doesn't help your culture or your workforce. And so I think they're being a little more selective.

    二是吸引合格人才。所以我們開始吸引他們。我們做了很多調查,發現他們有空缺職位。他們只是在努力尋找合格的人才。我認為他們在大流行期間學到的另一件事是,當時每個人都只是想僱用任何人,僱用任何人對你的文化或你的員工隊伍沒有幫助。所以我認為他們更有選擇性。

  • So we rolled out a series of products. We'll have more on the way. We started it in the PEO because that's an area where we have a lot of direct contact with the client and their employees, and started doing a lot of comprehensive work, both on retention and helping them directly attract using both our technology capabilities as well as our AI capabilities, and then directly building recruiting strategies. And we saw success in that program, and we're going to look to continue to move that forward as we go forward.

    於是我們推出了一系列產品。我們還會有更多的。我們從 PEO 開始,因為這是一個我們與客戶及其員工有很多直接接觸的領域,並開始做大量全面的工作,既保留員工,又利用我們的技術能力和幫助他們直接吸引客戶。智能能力,然後直接製定招募策略。我們看到了該計劃的成功,我們將在前進的過程中繼續推動這一進程。

  • But we're not seeing any signs of a recession or hearing from our clients or seeing layoffs or seeing those type of things that we would typically see in a recessionary period.

    但我們沒有看到任何經濟衰退的跡象,也沒有收到客戶的來信,也沒有看到裁員或看到我們在經濟衰退時期通常會看到的那些事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • James Faucette, Morgan Stanley.

    詹姆斯‧福賽特,摩根士丹利。

  • James Faucette - Analyst

    James Faucette - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much. I want to go back a little bit on the changes you were making in the micro segment. And just to be clear, was that something that you felt like you needed to do for your own product, or were you seeing some market pressures, et cetera, on that segment? And when you say one time, how quickly should we start to see some of those sales conversions, et cetera, come back to more normalized levels?

    偉大的。非常感謝。我想回顧一下你們在微觀領域所做的改變。需要澄清的是,您是否覺得需要為自己的產品做一些事情,或者您是否在該細分市場上看到了一些市場壓力等等?當你說一次時,我們應該多快開始看到其中一些銷售轉換等恢復到更正常化的水平?

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yeah. Look, we'll make this pretty simple. As we got through the selling season, as everyone knows, after our selling season is the time to begin to introduce new technology platforms and other things into our sales and marketing engine as we gear up for the next fiscal year.

    是的。看,我們會讓這件事變得非常簡單。當我們度過銷售季節時,眾所周知,銷售季節過後是時候開始將新技術平台和其他東西引入我們的銷售和行銷引擎,為下一財年做好準備。

  • One of the things we're constantly trying to do is improve the prospect experience digitally from the time of attraction all the way through to running their first payroll and doing as much of that digitally as possible. One of the things that we've been working on were some ways in which we wanted to improve that customer experience in ways that we thought we could enhance digital attraction in the micro market.

    我們一直在努力做的事情之一就是以數位化方式改善潛在客戶的體驗,從吸引到管理他們的第一筆工資,並盡可能以數位化方式進行。我們一直在努力的事情之一是我們希望透過一些我們認為可以增強微型市場數位吸引力的方式來改善客戶體驗。

  • So think of this in the digital micro market. We make some technology platform changes. We introduce some other third-party capabilities there. And to just be blunt, we had some integration issues. And any time. you have a disruption in that process, the people bug out of the process. And so you just did not have the lead, but conversion issues.

    所以在數位微型市場中考慮一下這一點。我們對技術平台進行了一些更改。我們在那裡引入了一些其他第三方功能。坦白說,我們遇到了一些整合問題。並且任何時間。你在這個過程中遇到了乾擾,人們就會退出這個過程。所以你只是沒有領先,而是轉換問題。

  • Now, we can go back and go after those individuals, but again, it was just not smooth, and we've got that behind us at this point in time. So that was what I would say a very specific market segment and a very specific technology upgrade that we were doing, and I do believe that that upgrade will end up giving us better conversion rates and better attraction rates as we go into fiscal year '25.

    現在,我們可以回去追捕那些人,但同樣,這並不順利,而我們現在已經把它拋在了身後。這就是我所說的我們正在做的非常具體的細分市場和非常具體的技術升級,我確實相信,當我們進入25 財年時,這種升級最終將為我們帶來更好的轉換率和更好的吸引力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Samad Samana, Jefferies.

    薩馬德·薩馬納,杰弗里斯。

  • Samad Samana - Analyst

    Samad Samana - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So maybe first just on some of the assumptions underpinning the outlook for the year. I guess first, when you think about the cost action that you did in the fourth quarter, Bob, was that factored in when you gave the preliminary outlook for 2015? I'm just trying to understand how much the cost action is influencing the EPS growth outlook, and then I'll have a couple more quick follow-ups.

    你好。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。因此,也許首先是支持今年前景的一些假設。我想首先,鮑勃,當您考慮第四季度採取的成本行動時,您在給出 2015 年初步展望時是否考慮到了這一點?我只是想了解成本行動對每股盈餘成長前景的影響有多大,然後我將進行一些快速跟進。

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah, sure, Samad. Thanks for the question. Yeah, I mean, it absolutely was factored in. I'd say the only thing that surprised us about the end of ERTC was that it happened probably a quarter earlier than what we expected. But we've been -- we knew that it was going to come to an end this year, so we've been really focused all year on preparing for that. John's actually been talking to the team about it for two years, telling us that it was going to come to an end.

    是的,當然,薩馬德。謝謝你的提問。是的,我的意思是,這絕對被考慮在內。但我們知道它將於今年結束,所以我們一整年都專注於為此做準備。事實上,約翰已經和團隊談論這件事兩年了,告訴我們這件事即將結束。

  • So we've been focused on our cost savings initiatives, really trying to find ways to continue to enhance our digital capabilities, find ways to be more productive, more efficient while making investments in the business to prepare for this, really focused on not letting new costs in the business. And so we've been working on a plan for 12 months.

    因此,我們一直專注於成本節約計劃,真正努力尋找方法來繼續增強我們的數位能力,找到提高生產力、效率的方法,同時在業務上進行投資,為此做好準備,真正專注於不讓業務中的新成本。我們花了 12 個月的時間來製定一項計劃。

  • What you saw as it relates to the cost actions, that's been underway for some time. Obviously, I wasn't going to communicate it, but I had a higher degree of confidence on the execution of those plans, which enabled me to provide the preliminary color around margin expansion that I did on the last call.

    您所看到的與成本行動相關的內容已經進行了一段時間。顯然,我不打算傳達這一點,但我對這些計劃的執行有更高的信心,這使我能夠提供關於利潤擴張的初步信息,就像我在上次電話會議中所做的那樣。

  • Samad Samana - Analyst

    Samad Samana - Analyst

  • Great. And then as I just look at the data from this year, it looks like client growth was about 60 basis points. If I look at the 745,000 clients versus the 740,000 ending last year and WSE growth, 2.3%, versus 2.2% is about 4.5% growth. What are you assuming for, I guess, client growth and WSE growth in the fiscal '25 outlook?

    偉大的。然後,當我查看今年的數據時,看起來客戶成長約為 60 個基點。如果我看一下 745,000 名客戶與去年年底的 740,000 名客戶以及 WSE 的增長率,2.3% 與 2.2% 相比,增長率約為 4.5%。我想,您對 25 財年展望中的客戶成長和 WSE 成長有何假設?

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah. So a couple of things. We disclosed round numbers there. So the client-based growth was closer to 1% when you have the full numbers and not the round numbers. And I'm not sure on the worksite employee, because our worksite employee growth was up.

    是的。有幾件事。我們在那裡披露了整數。因此,當您擁有完整數字而不是整數時,基於客戶的成長接近 1%。我不確定工地員工的情況,因為我們工地員工的成長是上升的。

  • It was strong both in ASO, in PEO, and it was close to double digits, I'd say, on the PEO. We've had a lot of strength there. So I'd have to look at those numbers again. But the worksite employee growth across both solutions has been extremely strong this year, in particular in that PEO business.

    ASO 和 PEO 的表現都很強勁,我想說,PEO 的表現接近兩位數。我們在那裡有很大的力量。所以我必須再次查看這些數字。但今年這兩種解決方案的現場員工成長都非常強勁,特別是在 PEO 業務中。

  • Samad Samana - Analyst

    Samad Samana - Analyst

  • Great. I know it's breaking the rules, but I'm just squeeze in third one in because they're just going to have new questions.

    偉大的。我知道這違反了規則,但我只是擠進第三個,因為他們會提出新問題。

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • (multiple speakers) I'm sorry, what's your follow-up question on? What the assumption is for next year related to those metrics?

    (多位發言者) 抱歉,您的後續問題是什麼?明年與這些指標相關的假設是什麼?

  • Samad Samana - Analyst

    Samad Samana - Analyst

  • Yeah. What are you embedding in the guidance, right? Just trying to get an idea of how you're thinking about the building blocks between what's called seats or units versus price action versus retention changing in any direction. Just trying to triangle a little bit more on how that 4% to 5.5% range breaks out and what the factors in -- what underpins it?

    是的。您在指南中嵌入了什麼,對嗎?只是想了解您如何考慮所謂的席位或單位與價格行為與任何方向的保留變化之間的構建模組。只是想進一步了解 4% 到 5.5% 的範圍是如何突破的,以及其中的因素是什麼——支撐它的因素是什麼?

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah. I'd say our growth formula, which is proven, and the 5% or the 4% to 5.5%, you take the midpoint of that. You've got to factor in the 200 basis point headwind from ERTC. I'd say very similar. We're always putting together plans. We're trying to find ways to be more productive from a sales standpoint, trying to sell more and lose less and drive client-based growth. I'd say we're not as maybe dependent on that is others because we have lots of different solutions that we can sell, and we want to get client-based growth.

    是的。我想說的是我們的成長公式,這是經過驗證的,5% 或 4% 到 5.5%,你取其中的中點。您必須考慮 ERTC 帶來的 200 個基點的逆風。我想說非常相似。我們總是在製定計劃。我們正在努力尋找從銷售角度提高生產力的方法,努力銷售更多、減少損失並推動基於客戶的成長。我想說,我們不像其他人那樣依賴,因為我們有很多不同的解決方案可以出售,我們希望獲得基於客戶的成長。

  • And then the big part of the formula is really going back into that base and getting a larger share of wallet over time. We've driven a lot of growth historically in our ability to do that when you look at kind of the penetration rates in those key solutions. And John really mentioned them, ASO, PEO, retirement. We have a lot of momentum in those businesses, and there's still a lot of runway within the existing client base.

    然後,公式的重要部分實際上是回到該基礎並隨著時間的推移獲得更大的錢包份額。從歷史上看,當你看看這些關鍵解決方案的滲透率時,我們在這方面的能力已經取得了巨大的成長。約翰確實提到了他們,ASO、PEO、退休。我們在這些業務中擁有很大的發展動力,現有客戶群中仍然有很多發展空間。

  • Pricing, we've talked a little bit this year about maybe pricing being a little bit of a headwind or a little bit less than our expectations. I will tell you the price realization in our model is still strong. Maybe our expectations, this year were a bit high, but pricing in our model is still strong, and that would be a contributor to growth next year, maybe not at the same level it has the last couple years. But when you kind of put those things together, that gets you close to the end. So that growth rate ex-ERTC that's implied in the guide.

    定價,我們今年已經討論過一些,定價可能會有點逆風,或者有點低於我們的預期。我會告訴你,我們模型中的價格實現仍然強勁。也許我們今年的預期有點高,但我們模型中的定價仍然強勁,這將有助於明年的成長,但可能不會達到過去幾年的水平。但當你把這些東西放在一起時,你就接近結局了。因此,指南中隱含了不包括 ERTC 的成長率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jason Kupferberg, Bank of America.

    賈森‧庫普弗伯格,美國銀行。

  • Caroline North - Analyst

    Caroline North - Analyst

  • Hi, this is Caroline North on for Jason. I just wanted to get in a little bit more on pricing. I know you guys just kind of mentioned it, but Berkeley Paychex would periodically, talk about taking like 2% to 4% of price in an average year. But given that there are some signs of softness in SMBs, might the lower end of the range be more likely this year?

    大家好,我是傑森的卡洛琳諾斯。我只是想多了解定價。我知道你們只是提到過這一點,但 Berkeley Paychex 會定期談論平均每年收取 2% 到 4% 的價格。但鑑於中小型企業出現一些疲軟跡象,今年該區間的下限是否更有可能出現?

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • I would tell you this, that our growth formula that we've historically had is well intact. I think that particularly when you even look, I look at these numbers, ex-ERTC, there's so many headwinds of things that are difficult to look at over the last three years, because you have the PPP, you have ERTC. You had a lot of one-time programs that we were engaging our clients with, which was critical for their success. And that certainly gave us a lot of opportunities to talk to our clients about the value we provide.

    我想告訴你的是,我們歷史上的成長公式完好無損。我認為,特別是當你看這些數字時,前 ERTC,在過去三年裡有很多難以觀察的逆風,因為你有 PPP,你有 ERTC。我們與客戶合作進行了許多一次性項目,這對他們的成功至關重要。這無疑給了我們很多機會與客戶談論我們提供的價值。

  • What Bob said is exactly what we would say. We continue to have good value pricing opportunities in our base, and we have a demonstrated track record that as we bring clients in, we can move them up the value chain, demonstrate, demonstrate value, and get price realization. So I think that the historical pricing capabilities that we have in the market, we continue to see and we continue to believe those are sustainable into the future.

    鮑伯所說的正是我們所說的。我們的基地繼續擁有良好的價值定價機會,我們擁有良好的業績記錄,當我們引入客戶時,我們可以將他們提升到價值鏈上,展示、展示價值並實現價格實現。因此,我認為我們在市場上擁有的歷史定價能力,我們將繼續看到,我們仍然相信這些能力在未來是可持續的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

    安德魯尼古拉斯、威廉布萊爾。

  • Andrew Nicholas - Analyst

    Andrew Nicholas - Analyst

  • Hi. Thank you for taking my questions and good morning. I wanted to double back on the PEO works at employee growth that you cited. I think you said close to double digits. You mentioned both this quarter and in past quarters, some of the things that you've done and some of the things that are going really well.

    你好。感謝您回答我的問題,早安。我想再次強調您提到的 PEO 在員工成長方面的工作。我認為你說的是接近兩位數。您提到了本季和過去幾個季度,您所做的一些事情以及一些進展非常順利的事情。

  • I just -- maybe to ask it more simply, like how do you get to that number? What are the number of things that you think are driving? Is it competitive differentiation? Is it the market being more receptive to more HR outsourcing? Is it something that you've done with your insurance plans? Is there any way to kind of break down kind of where all these new wins are coming from? Just a really strong number, so I wanted to get a better sense for what's going on in the market.

    我只是——也許問得更簡單一些,例如你是如何得到這個數字的?您認為正在驅動的東西有多少?是差異化競爭嗎?市場是否更容易接受更多的人力資源外包?這是您在保險計劃中做過的事情嗎?有什麼辦法可以分解所有這些新勝利的來源嗎?這是一個非常強勁的數字,所以我想更好地了解市場上正在發生的事情。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yeah, Andrew, it is a very strong number. And the thing to remember is we did not reach our expectations in terms of worksite growth inside the client base. I mean, if the economy growing, at the rate it's growing, we expected to see a lot more worksite employee hires in the PEO. That's part of the reason why we put this hiring program in place in the PEO, because what we heard from our clients there was they were -- they had a lot of openings, but they were struggling to find them.

    是的,安德魯,這是一個非常強勁的數字。需要記住的是,我們在客戶群內的工作場所成長方面沒有達到我們的預期。我的意思是,如果經濟以這種成長速度成長,我們預計 PEO 會僱用更多的工作場所員工。這就是我們在 PEO 中實施這項招募計畫的部分原因,因為我們從客戶那裡聽到的是——他們有很多空缺職位,但他們很難找到。

  • So these numbers are very impressive and they're volume driven. I think we do have a very competitive offering. We did a lot of things on our insurance program. We had strong medical attachment exceeding our expectations. And then the enrollment based upon the breadth of the offerings that we're providing the employees, the participation rates actually increased as well.

    所以這些數字非常令人印象深刻,而且是由數量驅動的。我認為我們確實提供了非常有競爭力的產品。我們在保險計劃上做了很多事情。我們對醫療的依戀超出了我們的預期。然後,根據我們為員工提供的產品的廣度進行註冊,參與率實際上也有所增加。

  • So really pretty much across the board when I look at it, I think there's increasing demand for HR advisory and HR outsourcing solutions. And again, I remind everybody that's one of the things that I think is going to end up differentiating Paychex is we can go all the way from a pure tech play, which maybe there's a little more choppiness in, all the way up to a full outsourcing play.

    因此,當我審視這個問題時,我認為對人力資源諮詢和人力資源外包解決方案的需求不斷增加。再次,我提醒大家,我認為最終使 Paychex 與眾不同的一件事是,我們可以從純粹的科技遊戲一路走來,這可能會有更多的波動,一直到全面的技術遊戲。

  • And when you have inflationary and you're trying to do more with less and you're trying to look at cutting costs, the old play of outsourcing moves in there. So now do I need to add another person to my HR department? Do I even need to add an HR person? Or can I outsource that? I think there's a growing demand and interest and I think in an inflationary and where people are being very cost conscious, outsourcing is one of the key tools.

    當你遇到通貨膨脹時,你試圖用更少的錢做更多的事情,你試圖考慮削減成本,外包的老方法就會出現。那麼現在我需要在人力資源部門再增加一個人嗎?我還需要新增人力資源人員嗎?或者我可以外包嗎?我認為需求和興趣不斷增長,在通貨膨脹和人們非常注重成本的情況下,外包是關鍵工具之一。

  • Everyone goes to an ACFO knows you go to outsourcing when you want to cut your costs. And we've got the offering to do that. And I think we've positioned our value proposition very strongly against the competitive set that we're going up against.

    每個去 ACFO 的人都知道,當您想削減成本時,您會選擇外包。我們有能力做到這一點。我認為我們已經將我們的價值主張定位得非常強烈,以應對我們所面臨的競爭。

  • Andrew Nicholas - Analyst

    Andrew Nicholas - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. That's certainly where a lot of the competitors are moving towards in terms of the spectrum. So I appreciate the color.

    偉大的。謝謝。這肯定是許多競爭對手在光譜方面正在朝著的方向發展。所以我很欣賞這種顏色。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Better late than never.

    遲到總比不到好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

    Ashish Sabadra,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

    Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question. I just had two quick questions on the first-quarter guidance. First one on [tax]. If I understood correctly, 2% revenue growth, that's a material slowdown compared to 5%. You saw in the fourth quarter, I understand the one less processing day, but the ERTC headwinds were in the fourth quarter as well.

    感謝您提出我的問題。我只是對第一季的指導有兩個簡單的問題。第一個關於[稅]。如果我理解正確的話,2% 的收入增長,與 5% 相比,是一個實質性的放緩。你在第四季看到了,我知道處理日少了一個,但 ERTC 的逆風也出現在第四季。

  • So just trying to bridge that gap on what's causing that slow down. And then on the margins, the margins at the midpoint of [41 to 42] would suggest a modest decline in margins in the first quarter. And so just wanted to better understand the puts and takes weighing on margins on the first quarter and then the improvement as we go through the year. Thanks. **

    因此,我們只是想彌補導致速度放緩的原因之間的差距。然後在利潤率方面,[41 至 42] 中點的利潤率顯示第一季利潤率略有下降。因此,我只是想更了解看跌期權和看跌期權對第一季利潤率的影響,以及全年的改善。謝謝。 **

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah, Ashish. I'm actually surprised it took this long into the Q&A to get the question on Q1. Obviously, the 2% number, I think people would look at that and you really need to -- and have some questions. You need to peel back the onion a little bit and understand that I'd say, that we -- I talked about the ERTC headwind being a 200 base head point -- a 200 basis point headwind on a full-year basis. Obviously, that's larger in the first half and in the first quarter, and that subsides as we go through the year.

    是的,阿什什。事實上,我很驚訝為什麼花了這麼長時間才開始問答來回答第一個問題。顯然,我認為人們會關注 2% 的數字,而且你確實需要關注這個數字,並提出一些問題。你需要把洋蔥剝開一點,明白我想說的,我們——我談到 ERTC 的逆風是 200 個基點——全年的 200 個基點逆風。顯然,上半年和第一季的增幅更大,隨著全年的發展,這種情況會減弱。

  • So it's north of 300 basis points. It's a stronger headwind in Q4. And then listen, processing days, typically they balance out through the year and a given year. They can have an impact on the quarter. It's not going to have much of an impact on the full year. We're actually losing one of our bigger days of the week in the quarter. So that certainly is a headwind to growth.

    所以它超出了 300 個基點。第四季的阻力更大。然後聽、處理天數,通常它們會在一年和特定年份之間進行平衡。它們可能會對本季產生影響。對全年影響不會太大。實際上,我們正​​在失去本季一周中最重要的日子之一。因此,這無疑是成長的阻力。

  • I think if you take those two headwinds, and again, I'm giving you around numbers here, you're going to -- and you do the math, you're going to get to a growth rate in Q1 that is very similar to the growth rate ex-ERTC that we delivered in the back half of the year. It's very similar to that.

    我認為,如果你面對這兩個逆風​​,我在這裡給你一些數字,你會——然後你計算一下,你會在第一季度達到非常相似的增長率與我們下半年實現的扣除ERTC 後的成長率相比。與此非常相似。

  • And obviously, you got to exclude interest rates because we were still getting a fairly significant lift in interest rates in the back half of the year. But if you look at service revenue and you add in those headwinds, you're going to see a growth rate in Q1. That's very similar to what we delivered in the back half of the year. And I'll remind everyone we've had a significant acceleration in the growth rate of the business in the back half ex-ERTC relative to the first half.

    顯然,你必須排除利率,因為今年下半年我們的利率仍然有相當大的提升。但如果你看看服務收入,再加上這些不利因素,你會看到第一季的成長率。這與我們今年下半年交付的成果非常相似。我要提醒大家的是,與上半年相比,下半年(不含 ERTC)業務的成長率顯著加快。

  • So I know the print number or the number on the face of it looks weak. But when you factor in those components, you're still seeing growth that's very similar to what we had in the back half of the year. And then on the margin, there's -- a lot of that is going to do have to do with the ERTC headwind year over year. I mean, ERTC is was highly profitable. It wasn't 100% margin, but it was pretty close to 100% margin. And that's where you see a little bit of a headwind on the margin quarter versus quarter.

    所以我知道印刷數字或表面上的數字看起來很弱。但當你考慮到這些因素時,你仍然會看到與今年下半年非常相似的成長。然後,從邊緣來看,其中很大一部分確實與 ERTC 年復一年的逆風有關。我的意思是,ERTC 利潤很高。雖然不是 100% 的利潤率,但已經非常接近 100% 的利潤率了。這就是你會看到季度與季度之間的利潤率出現一些阻力的地方。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Christiansen, Citi.

    彼得克里斯蒂安森,花旗銀行。

  • Peter Christiansen - Analyst

    Peter Christiansen - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. John, I was just hoping we could do a little bit into your middle market commentary on decision delay that you're seeing there. Is that a function of tech issues or is it high switching cost? Just your thoughts on perhaps switching costs of kind of trended, competitive landscape, what have you. It would be great to hear you expand on that dynamic just a bit more. Thank you.

    謝謝。早安.約翰,我只是希望我們能夠對您所看到的決策延遲的中間市場評論做一些評論。這是技術問題的結果還是轉換成本太高?只是您對某種趨勢、競爭格局的轉換成本的想法,您有什麼。很高興聽到您進一步闡述這一動態。謝謝。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yeah. Yeah. So let me maybe dive, get a little deeper into this relative to volumes and what we're seeing. So volumes were up for us relative to proposals, across the major groups. And I'd remind everybody, to generate a proposal in our system and it's an AI-based system, we're actually then -- we got to have an engaged client cause there's information we want.

    是的。是的。因此,讓我深入探討一下,相對於數量和我們所看到的情況,更深入地了解這一點。因此,相對於主要群體的提案,我們的數量增加。我想提醒大家,要在我們的系統中產生提案,這是一個基於人工智慧的系統,我們實際上 - 我們必須有一個積極參與的客戶,因為有我們想要的資訊。

  • So this is not, I drove by a place and think they may be interested in Paychex. This is, we counted as in our pipeline, really there's a live proposal that we've got information in the clients and engaging us. So as we said in retirement, we saw volumes up in retirement, actually acceleration in the fourth quarter, ASL and PEO strong and stable. PEO, very strong, including midmarket volumes were up both in the quarter and for the full year.

    所以這不是,我開車經過一個地方,認為他們可能對 Paychex 感興趣。這是,我們認為在我們的管道中,確實有一個即時提案,我們已經從客戶那裡獲得了資訊並吸引了我們。正如我們在退休時所說的那樣,我們看到退休量增加,實際上在第四季度加速,ASL 和 PEO 強勁而穩定。 PEO 非常強勁,包括中端市場銷售在本季和全年均有所成長。

  • And what we saw there in the fourth quarter, in the midmarket was more a delay in decision-making. So longer sales cycles. So we have more active deals in the pipeline today, right? Then we did last year at this time, going into the fiscal year, they're not closing out. I'm saying, no, they're just more there.

    我們在第四季看到的中端市場更多的是決策的延遲。所以銷售週期較長。那麼今天我們有更多活躍的交易正在醞釀中,對嗎?然後我們去年的這個時候就這麼做了,進入財政年度,他們還沒結束。我是說,不,他們只是更多。

  • My sense of it is there's a lot of shopping going on. Again, let's go back, price sensitive market. People are going out and say, can I get a better deal somewhere else? Maybe they're not as happy with their current provider or where their current provider is heading from a technology roadmap perspective.

    我的感覺是有很多購物活動正在進行中。再次,讓我們回到價格敏感市場。人們出去問,我能在其他地方得到更好的交易嗎?也許他們對目前的提供者不太滿意,或者從技術路線圖的角度來看,他們目前的供應商的發展方向不太滿意。

  • And so they're wanting to engage Paychex even more. So the midmarket actually for the year was a very solid from a volume volumes perspective. Well, we did see in midmarket to get deals, more of the deals require discounting. So one of the things we look at is how -- what percentage of our deals do we have to give any discount to get? Believe it or not, there's a lot of deals that we don't have to give discounts to get.

    因此,他們希望更多地與 Paychex 互動。因此,從銷售角度來看,今年的中端市場其實非常穩定。嗯,我們確實看到在中端市場要獲得優惠,更多的優惠需要折扣。因此,我們要考慮的事情之一是,我們必須給予多少比例的交易才能獲得折扣?不管你信不信,有很多優惠我們不需要打折就能獲得。

  • And then second, what is the percentage of the amount of the discount when we do have to get it? And both of those were up a little bit. The other thing I would say in the midmarket to peel back even more is our average deal size was down. And this phenomenon actually occurred also in the PEO which was another site had went even given their great results.

    其次,當我們必須獲得折扣時,折扣金額的百分比是多少?兩者均有所上漲。我要說的另一件事是,在中端市場,我們的平均交易規模下降了。這種現像實際上也發生在 PEO 中,這是另一個網站,即使他們取得了巨大的成果。

  • And that was in the higher end of the market, the higher end in the market, even less decision making and slower decision making. And so again, if you think about if your average average deal size goes from [75 to 72], that may not seem like much, but you spread that across our volume, those three extra or three less worksite employees or checks can add that to be significant.

    那是在市場的高端,在市場的高端,決策甚至更少,決策更慢。再說一次,如果你考慮一下你的平均交易規模是否從[75 到72],這可能看起來不多,但你將其分散到我們的交易量中,那三個額外或三個更少的工作現場員工或支票可以添加這一點具有重要意義。

  • So what we saw in the midmarket was good volume. There's good activity, good proposals, a little slower decision making. We have a good active pipeline. And what I would say, there's a segmentation from the upper end of that market to the lower end of the market, more buying in the lower end of the market than the upper end.

    因此,我們在中端市場看到的是良好的銷售量。有良好的活動、良好的建議,但決策速度稍慢。我們擁有良好的活躍管道。我想說的是,從市場的高端到市場的低端有一個細分,市場低端的購買量比高端市場的購買量更多。

  • Does that give you some more color? Peter?

    這會給你更多的色彩嗎?彼得?

  • Peter Christiansen - Analyst

    Peter Christiansen - Analyst

  • Absolutely, it does. It's fantastic color. But back on the discounts, I guess on an overall level, promotions, discounts, all that, would you say that that's rising?

    絕對是的。這是美妙的顏色。但回到折扣,我想從整體水平來看,促銷、折扣等等,你會說折扣正在上升嗎?

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • No. It's stable. It's really stable.

    不會,很穩定。確實很穩定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ramsey El-Assal, Barclays.

    拉姆齊·阿薩爾,巴克萊銀行。

  • Ramsey El-Assal - Analyst

    Ramsey El-Assal - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my question. Given the slower growth in Q1, can you help us think through the Q2 through Q4 cadence in terms of our models for management solutions? And also, if I could just tack on how much M&A contribution are you assuming in the full-year guidance? Thank you.

    您好,感謝您提出我的問題。鑑於第一季成長放緩,您能否幫助我們根據管理解決方案模型思考第二季到第四季的節奏?另外,我能否補充一下您在全年指導中假設的併購貢獻是多少?謝謝。

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah, let me start with your second question first. And the answer to that is not. I mean, we did do a really small acquisition last year. There may be a few weeks of benefit, but it probably doesn't even run around to point one. So there's really no assumption around M&A in the model.

    是的,讓我先回答你的第二個問題。答案是否定的。我的意思是,我們去年確實進行了一次非常小的收購。可能會有幾週的好處,但可能根本達不到第一點。因此,模型中確實沒有關於併購的假設。

  • Ramsey, I don't necessarily want to get into the giving you quarterly guidance here. But what I will say is obviously, the ERTC headwind ramps down quarter to quarter as we go through the year. And so the revenue growth that we see in the model, both total revenue management solution is going to accelerate during the year quarter to quarter based on that ramp down.

    拉姆齊,我不一定想在這裡為您提供季度指導。但我要說的是,隨著時間的推移,ERTC 的逆風顯然會逐季減弱。因此,我們在模型中看到的收入成長,兩種總收入管理解決方案都將在年內逐季度加速成長,基於這種下降。

  • When I just kind of take a step back and look at maybe first half back half, ex the ERTC, I'd say, right now, our thinking is the growth rates are similar front half, back half, maybe a little bit stronger but not materially different in the back half versus the front half. You saw we did that this year. We have plans in place that we're executing on.

    當我退後一步,看看前半部、後半部(例如 ERTC)時,我會說,現在,我們的想法是,前半部、後半部的成長率相似,也許更強一點,但後半部分與前半部沒有本質區別。你看到我們今年就這麼做了。我們已經制定了計劃並正在執行。

  • But really the difference in the gating is primarily being driven by the ramp down of the ERTC quarter to quarter as we move through the year. Hey, we'll get through Q1. I'm trying to provide you guys some color on Q1. And just given the pluses and minuses over the last few years with ERTC, we're trying to help you get close to where you need to be for the next quarter but not necessarily get into a -- setting a precedent of giving exactly where we expect to be for each quarter. I'll provide another update when we get to the end of the Q1 and we have that call.

    但實際上,門控的差異主要是由於一年中 ERTC 逐季下降所造成的。嘿,我們會完成第一季的任務。我試圖為你們提供有關第一季的一些資訊。考慮到過去幾年 ERTC 的優缺點,我們正在努力幫助您接近下個季度所需的目標,但不一定要進入 - 樹立一個先例,準確地給出我們的目標預計每個季度。當我們到達第一季末並接到電話時,我將提供另一個更新。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bryan Keane, Deutsche Bank.

    布萊恩‧基恩,德意志銀行。

  • Bryan Keane - Analyst

    Bryan Keane - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning, guys and Bob, just a follow up on the one last processing day in the quarter, does that just automatically -- like there's a catch up in the second quarter so you'll see the boost that the processing day ends up adding to the second quarter? Is that how it works?

    嗨,早上好,夥計們和鮑勃,只是本季度最後一個處理日的後續行動,這只是自動進行的 - 就像第二季度有一個趕上一樣,所以您會看到處理日結束時的推動增加到第二季嗎?是這樣的嗎?

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Unfortunately not. I mean, sometimes it does, Bryan. Sometimes it balances out in the quarter. Sometimes it balances out in the year. This day we actually -- this year, just the way the calendar falls, we actually lose the day. But the impact that growth on a full-year basis is minimal, but it impacts the quarter. So I wish I could get it back in the next quarter, but I don't -- but the full-year impact is minimal.

    不幸的是沒有。我的意思是,有時確實如此,布萊恩。有時它會在季度內達到平衡。有時它會在一年中平衡。事實上,今年,就像日曆的倒數一樣,我們實際上失去了這一天。但全年成長的影響很小,但會影響季度。所以我希望我能在下個季度收回它,但我沒有——但全年的影響很小。

  • Bryan Keane - Analyst

    Bryan Keane - Analyst

  • Okay. And then and then just, on the operating margin component in itself, it starts lower in the first quarter and then it ramps pretty significantly. Is there is there cost actions that are doing that? Or is that part of the processing, the less processing day that comes back or just trying to think about the pickup in operating margin?

    好的。然後,就營業利潤率本身而言,第一季開始較低,然後大幅上升。是否有這樣做的成本行動?或者這是處理的一部分,回來的處理日越少,或者只是想考慮營業利潤率的上升?

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah, there's the less processing day. There's the ERTC headwind. That again, that the headwind gets smaller as you move through the year. That's high margin. So that's going to have an impact. And then just in general, when you look at our margins, they're typically stronger in the back half, in the first half. And that's because of some of the way we recognize revenue or around some of the year end processing stuff in Q3, which is also very high margin.

    是的,處理日較少。 ERTC 面臨逆風。再說一遍,隨著一年的推移,逆風會變得越來越小。那是高利潤。所以這將會產生影響。總的來說,當你看看我們的利潤率時,他們通常在後半部分和上半部分更強。這是因為我們在第三季確認收入或圍繞一些年終處理內容的某些方式,這也是非常高的利潤率。

  • So historically, if you go back and look at our margins by quarter, you're going to see that the Q3 in the back half are typically a little bit higher. So you know that that those are the big differences.

    因此,從歷史上看,如果您回顧並按季度查看我們的利潤率,您會發現後半段的第三季度通常會更高一些。所以你知道這些是很大的差別。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Togut, EVERCORE ISI.

    大衛·托古特,EVERCORE ISI。

  • David Togut - Analyst

    David Togut - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. Could you quantify the 2025 revenue or cost benefits from implementing a gen AI? You called out use of gen AI and prospecting. And I'm curious if you could go a little deeper into how you implement that in the business and what the financial benefits are.

    非常感謝。您能否量化實施一代人工智慧帶來的 2025 年收入或成本效益?您呼籲使用人工智慧和勘探。我很好奇您是否可以更深入地了解如何在業務中實施這一點以及經濟效益是什麼。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yeah, I really can't -- I really can't quantify it outside of just looking at how we've historically improved our operating performance without increasing our costs, actually decreasing our cost is the way I look at it. So whether that's in the sales area where I look at how it's been used to increase prospecting, how we've used it to drive rep productivity. I look at it in the service area in terms of what we're doing from a retention perspective.

    是的,我真的不能——除了看看我們歷史上如何在不增加成本的情況下改善我們的營運績效之外,我真的無法量化它,實際上,降低我們的成本是我看待它的方式。因此,無論是在銷售領域,我都會研究如何使用它來增加潛在客戶,以及我們如何使用它來提高代表性生產力。我從保留的角度來看我們在服務領域所做的事情。

  • I mean, the biggest, probably benefit that we see from it quite frankly is in this pricing and price realization area where we can, in real time, do a lot of analysis around price realization and price sensitivity at the client level so that as we're both proposing to a prospect as well as looking at the roll downs of discounts of prospects as they become clients and now their discount is rolling down, how much of that can we get back. We've gotten very sophisticated in understanding what their service experience has been, what their utilization of our product and technology has been.

    我的意思是,坦白說,我們從中看到的最大的、可能的好處是在定價和價格實現領域,我們可以在客戶層面實時圍繞價格實現和價格敏感性進行大量分析,以便我們既向潛在客戶求婚,又考慮潛在客戶成為客戶後折扣的減少,現在他們的折扣正在減少,我們可以收回多少折扣。我們已經非常深入地了解他們的服務體驗以及他們對我們產品和技術的利用。

  • And we know those are predictable factors in understanding the value they're seeing us providing and where we're having the most value being delivered to a client. As you can imagine, we can realize more price appreciation as we benefit them over the lifetime of the client. So nothing specific that I could really pull out, but I can certainly tell you that across the board, if I went and told my team, I was going to turn off AI and that kind of things, they would not be happy about keeping their commitments.

    我們知道,這些都是可預測的因素,可以幫助他們了解我們提供的價值以及我們為客戶提供的最大價值。正如您可以想像的那樣,我們可以實現更多的價格升值,因為我們使客戶在整個生命週期中受益。所以我沒有什麼具體的東西可以真正拿出來,但我可以肯定地告訴你,如果我去告訴我的團隊,我要關閉人工智慧之類的東西,他們不會高興地保留他們的承諾。

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah. Yeah. I'd say another example, and it kind of tagged along to a question that was asked earlier about the PEO performance.

    是的。是的。我想說另一個例子,它有點類似於之前提出的有關 PEO 績效的問題。

  • Another example where we've leveraged these technologies is in the PEO business. I mean, we talked to you guys about this in the beginning of the year. That was one of our strategies to reaccelerate growth in the business. We had really strong year last year with ASO, and we knew that we were going to be able to leverage our data and AI models to really go back into that customer base, identify those prospects that were good clients for the PEO model, and really go back in and upgrade them to PEO and be able to do that in a productive and efficient way with low customer acquisition costs.

    我們利用這些技術的另一個例子是 PEO 業務。我的意思是,我們在今年年初就和你們討論過這個問題。這是我們重新加速業務成長的策略之一。去年我們在 ASO 方面表現非常強勁,我們知道我們將能夠利用我們的數據和人工智慧模型真正回到客戶群,識別那些適合 PEO 模型的良好客戶的潛在客戶,並且真正返回並將他們升級為PEO,並能夠以高效、高效的方式實現這一點,並降低客戶獲取成本。

  • And that is one of many things that we did to really improve the PEO performance this year. But I think that is a great example on the real benefit it's having in our business model.

    這是我們今年為真正改善 PEO 績效所做的眾多事情之一。但我認為這是一個很好的例子,說明了它在我們的商業模式中所帶來的真正好處。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • I go back again, I guess we pull ERTC. Without the models that we had from an AI perspective, ERTC would have been a very difficult and manual calculation that we would have had to have done relative to the parameters. And all of that was really done through a data and AI model that was generating reports. And basically, the client was giving us a couple of the missing data points that we needed to be able to complete the application and complete the processing.

    我又回去了,我想我們會拉 ERTC。如果沒有人工智慧角度的模型,ERTC 將是一項非常困難的手動計算,我們必須根據參數進行計算。所有這一切實際上都是透過產生報告的數據和人工智慧模型完成的。基本上,客戶給了我們一些缺失的數據點,我們需要這些數據點才能完成應用程式並完成處理。

  • So if we would have -- and I think some providers actually, moved away from wanting to even offer ERTC because they looked at it as very complicated, very labor intensive type of effort. We know a lot of our CPA partners did not want to touch it at all. And really, as Bob said, it's highly profitable because that was really built off of an AI and data model that we built and automated that entire process.

    因此,如果我們——我認為實際上有些提供者不再想要提供 ERTC,因為他們認為這是非常複雜、勞動密集的工作。我們知道很多註冊會計師合夥人根本不想碰它。事實上,正如鮑勃所說,它的利潤很高,因為它實際上是建立在我們建立並自動化整個過程的人工智慧和資料模型的基礎上的。

  • David Togut - Analyst

    David Togut - Analyst

  • Just following up on your points around service, are you able to use gen AI a lot to create more automated chat and reduce the labor intensity of servicing the client?

    就您對服務的觀點進行跟進,您是否能夠大量使用 gen AI 來創建更自動化的聊天並減少為客戶提供服務的勞動強度?

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yes. And I would say even more to come as we have now began to digitize our entire -- from prospect to servicing all of our interactions with our clients. In 2023, we captured 158 years of call interactions. Now, that means, we took the calls, they were recorded, they were transcribed. They are now sitting in a data model where we can use that to do.

    是的。我想說的還有更多,因為我們現在已經開始將我們的整個業務數位化——從潛在客戶到為我們與客戶的所有互動提供服務。 2023 年,我們捕捉了 158 年的通話互動。現在,這意味著我們接聽了電話,並對它們進行了錄音和轉錄。它們現在位於一個資料模型中,我們可以使用它來完成任務。

  • And then another 250 years of calls in electronic communications between chat and emails that we have between the clients. And all of that data is being used to analyze what are our clients asking us, why are they asking us and how do we avoid them needing to ask us those questions to start with. So if you do that math there, that's the scale of the data set that we generated in one year by digitizing and leveraging data and AI in our service area, that service alone.

    然後,我們客戶之間的聊天和電子郵件之間的電子通訊又持續了 250 年。所有這些數據都被用來分析我們的客戶問我們什麼,他們為什麼問我們,以及我們如何避免他們需要先問我們這些問題。因此,如果你在那裡進行數學計算,這就是我們透過數位化和利用我們服務領域(僅該服務)中的數據和人工智慧在一年內產生的數據集的規模。

  • By the way, that doesn't include the millions of SMB companies that we engage in our prospecting and sales process through the years.

    順便說一句,這還不包括我們多年來參與勘探和銷售流程的數百萬中小型企業。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kartik Mehta, Northcoast Research.

    Kartik Mehta,北海岸研究中心。

  • Kartik Mehta - Analyst

    Kartik Mehta - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, John and Bob. If we took a step back at FY25 and looked at the growth model for the company. I always used to think about net client growth, pace for control price, and then ancillary sales. And on those factors, would you say price is more historical or are we still at a point where you're getting a little bit better price? And then I'm assuming the pace for control, since they've been so strong, are likely flat. So if you kind of look at that growth model, how would you say things are different than historical?

    嘿,早上好,約翰和鮑伯。如果我們在 2025 財年退後一步,看看公司的成長模式。我過去總是考慮淨客戶成長、控制價格的速度,然後是輔助銷售。就這些因素而言,您是否認為價格更具歷史意義,或者我們仍處於獲得更好價格的階段?然後我假設控制速度可能會持平,因為它們一直如此強大。因此,如果你看看這種成長模式,你會說現在的情況與歷史有何不同?

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • I'd say they're similar to historical, Kartik. I mean, if you were to kind of break down the components of it and look at the guide ex-ERTC, we've talked about pricing has been a little bit higher the last couple of years. I'd say that's getting back in our expectation is that gets back more towards normal levels. The checks for client -- and that's been an up and down thing over the last couple of years. And right now in the plan, we're not really assuming a lot of growth.

    我想說它們與歷史相似,卡蒂克。我的意思是,如果你要分解它的組成部分並查看前 ERTC 的指南,我們已經討論過過去幾年定價有點高。我想說的是,這回到了我們的預期,即回到了正常水平。客戶的支票——這在過去幾年裡一直是一個起起落落的事情。目前在計劃中,我們並沒有真正假設會有很大的成長。

  • We really have that flattish. And then when you look at maybe some of the larger client size, what we refer to kind of change in base in our HR outsourcing models, we typically see growth there. We had a couple of challenging quarters this year. John mentioned it. We actually saw that turn around a little bit in Q4. Hopefully, that continues.

    我們確實有那麼平坦。然後,當你看看一些較大的客戶規模時,我們所說的人力資源外包模式中的基礎變化,我們通常會看到那裡的成長。今年我們經歷了幾個充滿挑戰的季度。約翰提到過。實際上,我們在第四季度看到了這種情況的改善。希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

  • We have a little bit of growth assumed there. I'd say it's probably we're a little cautious there given the macro uncertainty and maybe have dialed that back a little bit relative to where it's been historically. But right now we're not expecting a big impact, positive or negative what's assumed in the plan as it relates to macro and employment in those type of things.

    我們假設那裡有一點成長。我想說,考慮到宏觀的不確定性,我們可能有點謹慎,並且可能相對於歷史水平有所回落。但目前我們預計該計劃中假設的影響不會產生重大影響,無論是積極還是消極,因為它與宏觀和就業有關。

  • So I think our growth formula is strong and what's assumed in the plan next year is in line with where it's been historically.

    因此,我認為我們的成長公式很強勁,明年計劃中的假設與歷史情況相符。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yeah, Karthik, I think we talk a lot about what do you realize from client based growth? What do you realize from price? Remember, we got a pretty broad growth formula. And when you look at product penetration, that's been an area that's been historically very strong. And I would say that accelerated during the pandemic.

    是的,Karthik,我想我們討論了很多關於您從基於客戶的成長中實現了什麼?從價格中你了解到什麼?請記住,我們有一個相當廣泛的成長公式。當你觀察產品滲透率時,你會發現這是一個歷史上非常強勁的領域。我想說,這種情況在大流行期間加速了。

  • So if I look pre-pandemic to post pandemic and say what changed, we're exiting the pandemic and entering the post-pandemic era in a stronger position as a company. And we're more profitable. I think we're more agile. We have a stronger value proposition instead of solutions. I think we've established ourselves as a trusted advisor with our clients. I mean, we got over three -- we had over $90 billion of money in our client's hand from ERTC and PPP.

    因此,如果我看看大流行前和大流行後,並說出發生了什麼變化,我們將作為一家公司以更強大的地位退出大流行並進入大流行後時代。而且我們的利潤更高。我認為我們更加敏捷。我們有更強大的價值主張,而不是解決方案。我認為我們已經成為客戶值得信賴的顧問。我的意思是,我們從 ERTC 和 PPP 手中獲得了超過 3 個資金——我們的客戶手中有超過 900 億美元的資金。

  • And so that built up a lot of goodwill. So when I look at what we can do from an insurance penetration, what we're seeing in the PEO, remember we sell the PEO both inside the base and outside the base. And we're seeing both of those accelerate. We're seeing our HR outsourcing inside the base. We're seeing 401(k) inside the base accelerating.

    這樣就建立了很多善意。因此,當我考慮我們可以透過保險滲透做什麼時,我們在 PEO 中看到的內容時,請記住我們在基地內部和基地外部出售 PEO。我們看到這兩者都在加速。我們看到我們的人力資源外包在基地內部。我們看到 401(k) 在基地內加速。

  • So that product penetration is something that sometimes gets left out. And that's also a key part of our growth formula as a company and has been for, as you know, for 50 years.

    因此,產品滲透率有時會被忽略。這也是我們公司發展模式的關鍵部分,正如您所知,50 年來一直如此。

  • Kartik Mehta - Analyst

    Kartik Mehta - Analyst

  • Yeah. And John, just the last question, just on acquisitions, you mentioned earlier in the call the ability to provide clients with access to capital. I'm wondering, as you look at maybe acquisitions, is the thought that you'd want to continue building on that? Or would the strategy be to acquire other types of companies?

    是的。約翰,最後一個問題,關於收購,您之前在電話會議中提到了為客戶提供獲得資本的能力。我想知道,當您考慮收購時,您是否想在此基礎上繼續發展?或者策略是收購其他類型的公司?

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Well, I, let me talk about, let me talk about, you know, M&A in general, I would say another part of our growth formula has been historically M&A as well. And that would be one that we've continually looked at. I would tell you that I do find the market getting back to more rational valuations both directly in our space. And then at the adjacencies that we have been looking at historically, where I think there was a lot of inflation, as I see those go back, we're going to continue to -- very active in that market.

    好吧,我,讓我談談,讓我談談,你知道,一般來說,併購,我想說我們成長公式的另一部分在歷史上也是併購。這將是我們不斷關注的問題。我想告訴你,我確實發現市場在我們的領域直接回到了更理性的估值。然後,在我們歷史上一直關注的周邊地區,我認為那裡存在大量通貨膨脹,當我看到這些情況回升時,我們將繼續在該市場上非常活躍。

  • Specifically in the area you're asking the question, we're more interested in expanding our partnerships with fintechs and other companies digitally so that as the client comes in to run their pay -- remember for most small business owners, the biggest check they're going to write every month is their payroll. And so that's a source that if we can provide them alternatives to float some of that, or get a loan if they need to repair a truck or something like that in their business.

    具體來說,在您提出問題的領域,我們更感興趣的是以數位方式擴大與金融科技公司和其他公司的合作夥伴關係,以便當客戶進來管理他們的工資時- 請記住,對於大多數小企業主來說,他們最大的支票每個月都會寫的是他們的薪資單。因此,這是一個來源,如果我們可以為他們提供替代方案來浮動其中一些,或者如果他們需要修理卡車或類似業務時獲得貸款。

  • So what we're trying to do is build more partnerships there so that we can actually give them access to capital at the point of funding their payroll.

    因此,我們正在努力做的是在那裡建立更多的合作夥伴關係,以便我們實際上可以讓他們在為工資提供資金時獲得資本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.

    史考特‧沃策爾,沃爾夫研究中心。

  • Scott Wurtzel - Analyst

    Scott Wurtzel - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning guys. And thanks for squeezing me in. Just wanted to go back quickly to the cost optimization charges and wondering if you can maybe provide a split out between the real estate optimization, the shifting of technology investments and the headcount actions would be appreciated. And then also are you expecting any incremental charges related to these fiscal '25 as well?

    嘿,早上好,夥計們。感謝您讓我參與其中。那麼您是否預計還會有與 25 財年相關的增量費用?

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yup. So the answer to the second question is no Scott, I think we have all that behind us. You know, it's $30 million. I'd say roughly 20% of that is probably headcount related. And then the balance from there is probably split roughly half between the real estate assets and the technology assets. There'll be some more disclosures when you see our 10-K in a couple of weeks around that. But that's the rough breakdown of those costs.

    是的。所以第二個問題的答案不是史考特,我認為我們已經做好了一切。你知道,這是 3000 萬美元。我想說其中大約 20% 可能與員工人數有關。然後,其中的餘額可能大約分為房地產資產和技術資產的一半。當您在幾週後看到我們的 10-K 時,將會有更多的披露。但這是這些成本的粗略細分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes. That concludes our question-and-answer period. I would like to turn the call back over to John Gibson for closing remarks.

    是的。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回約翰·吉布森,讓他發表結束語。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Okay. Thank you, Madison. At this point, as we close the call, if you're interested in a replay of the webcast, it will be archived for approximately 90 days. Again, I want to continue to thank each and every one of you for your interest in Paychex. And I hope everybody has a great day and a great Fourth of July. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝你,麥迪遜。此時,當我們結束通話時,如果您有興趣重播網路廣播,則該網路廣播將存檔約 90 天。我想再次感謝你們每一個人對 Paychex 的興趣。我希望每個人都有美好的一天和美好的七月四日。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That concludes today's fourth-quarter 2024 Paychex's earnings conference call. You may now disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.

    謝謝。 Paychex 今天的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。