沛齊 (PAYX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and welcome to the fourth quarter 2024 Paychex's earnings conference call. With us today are John Gibson and Bob Schrader.

    早安,歡迎參加 Paychex 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天和我們在一起的是約翰·吉布森和鮑勃·施拉德。

  • (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded and your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, please disconnect at this time.

    (操作員說明)提醒您,本次電話會議正在錄音,您的參與即表示您同意我們錄音。如果您不同意這些條款,請立即斷開連線。

  • Today's commentary will contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events and therefore involve some risks. In addition, the company will periodically refer to non-GAAP measures, such as adjusted operating income and adjusted diluted earnings per share. Please refer to their press release for further information.

    今天的評論將包含一些前瞻性陳述,這些陳述涉及未來事件,因此存在一定的風險。此外,公司也會定期參考非GAAP指標,例如調整後的營業收入和調整後的稀釋每股盈餘。請參閱他們的新聞稿以了解更多資訊。

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to John Gibson, Paychex President and CEO. Please go ahead.

    現在我想把電話交給 Paychex 總裁兼執行長 John Gibson。請繼續。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Thank you for joining us for our review of the Paychex fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 fiscal results. Joining me today is Bob Schrader, our Chief Financial Officer. This morning, before the market opened, we released our financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ending May 31, 2024. You can access our earnings release and investor presentation on our Investor Relations website.

    感謝您參加我們對 Paychex 2024 財年第四季及全年業績的回顧會議。今天和我一起的是我們的財務長鮑伯·施拉德。今天早上,在市場開盤之前,我們發布了截至 2024 年 5 月 31 日的第四季和財政年度的財務表現。您可以造訪我們的投資者關係網站,查看我們的獲利報告和投資者簡報。

  • Our Form 10-K will be filed with the SEC before the end of July. This teleconference is being broadcast over the Internet and will be archived and available on our website for approximately 90 days.

    我們的 10-K 表格將於 7 月底前提交給美國證券交易委員會。本次電話會議將透過網路進行直播,並將在我們的網站上存檔並保留約 90 天。

  • I'll start the call today with an update on the business highlights for the fourth quarter and fiscal year. Bob will review our financial results for fiscal year '24 and outlook for fiscal year 2025. We'll then open it up for your questions.

    今天我將首先報告第四季和本財年的業務亮點。鮑伯將檢視我們 2024 財年的財務表現和 2025 財年的展望。接下來我們將開放提問環節。

  • As we close out the fiscal year, I am pleased to report that Paychex delivered solid financial results, reflecting our ability to navigate changing market conditions by providing both innovative HR technology and advisory solutions that continue to deliver value for our clients and their employees. And as the best operators in the business, we are continually find ways to run our business more efficiently.

    在該財政年度結束之際,我很高興地報告,Paychex 取得了穩健的財務業績,這反映了我們透過提供創新的人力資源技術和諮詢解決方案來應對不斷變化的市場環境的能力,這些解決方案持續為我們的客戶及其員工創造價值。身為業界最優秀的營運商,我們不斷尋找提高業務營運效率的方法。

  • For fiscal 2024, we achieved 5% growth in total revenue and 11% growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share. These results are a testament to the hard work and dedication of our more than 16,000 employees and the investments we have made in our technology in advisory solutions.

    2024 財年,我們的總營收成長了 5%,調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長了 11%。這些成果證明了我們 16,000 多名員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神,以及我們在諮詢解決方案技術方面的投資。

  • Revenue retention remains near record levels and HR outsourcing work site employee retention continued to improve and hit new record levels. We believe our sustained high revenue retention demonstrate that our value proposition is resonating in a competitive marketplace.

    收入留存率仍接近歷史最高水平,人力資源外包工作場所員工留存率持續提高,並創下新紀錄。我們相信,持續高的客戶留存率表明,我們的價值主張在競爭激烈的市場中引起了共鳴。

  • Our client retention of our fiscal year 2024 was in line with last year and pre-pandemic levels with out-of-business losses back to pre-pandemic levels, but stable. We continue to see demand for our HR technology and advisory solutions.

    2024 財年我們的客戶留存率與去年和疫情前水平持平,倒閉損失也恢復到疫情前水平,但保持穩定。我們持續看到市場對我們的人力資源技術和諮詢解決方案的需求。

  • Our activity and pipelines remain strong and in fact, increased year over year in the fourth quarter, but close rates were softer than historical norms and our expectations. Sales results in some market segments face headwinds in the quarter. In SMB, we made some adjustments to our go-to-market strategy and in our digital technology stack in the microsegment, which impacted our read and sales volumes. We believe these are one-time issues which we have addressed.

    我們的業務活動和專案儲備依然強勁,事實上,第四季度同比增長,但成交率低於歷史平均水平和我們的預期。本季部分細分市場的銷售業績面臨不利因素。在中小企業市場,我們對市場進入策略和微細分市場的數位技術堆疊進行了一些調整,這影響了我們的閱讀量和銷售量。我們認為這些都是一次性問題,而且我們已經解決了。

  • In the mid-market, we have seen some of the same pressures our competitors have mentioned with delays decision making and increased focus on cost. Our HR outsourcing both ASO and PEO and our retirement business continued to perform well, and we believe the value proposition for those solutions remains strong.

    在中端市場,我們也看到了與競爭對手所提到的一些相同的壓力,例如決策延遲和對成本的日益關注。我們的人力資源外包(包括 ASO 和 PEO)以及退休金業務持續表現良好,我們相信這些解決方案的價值主張仍然強勁。

  • The breadth of our solutions, both technology and complete outsourcing advisory solutions, along with the market segments we serve, provides us with the ability to pivot our sales and marketing of investments as market conditions change to maximize the opportunity.

    我們擁有廣泛的解決方案,包括技術和完整的外包諮詢解決方案,以及我們服務的市場領域,這使我們能夠根據市場條件的變化調整投資的銷售和行銷策略,從而最大限度地把握機會。

  • Small and midsize businesses continue to face a challenging operating environment due to complex regulations, a historically tight labor market, and persistent inflationary pressures. Our small business employment watch has shown stabilization in job growth and continued downward pressure in hourly wages in recent months.

    由於監管複雜、勞動力市場長期緊張以及持續的通膨壓力,中小企業繼續面臨充滿挑戰的經營環境。近幾個月來,我們的小型企業就業觀察數據顯示,就業成長趨於穩定,但小時工資持續面臨下行壓力。

  • In fact, our May index posted the biggest one month increase in job growth this year. We also saw improvements in hiring within our client base with both better checks per client and worksite employee growth in the quarter after a few quarters of declines.

    事實上,我們5月的就業成長指數創下了今年以來單月增幅最大的紀錄。我們也看到客戶群的招募情況有所改善,在經歷了幾個季度的下滑之後,本季每位客戶的審核結果和工作場所員工人數均有所增長。

  • As we mentioned last quarter, our data and conversations with clients with clients reveal they are having a tough time finding qualified candidates. As an innovative leader in our industry, we took this as an opportunity to find a way to help these businesses by launching a new program starting in our PEO called the Employer of Choice Playbook.

    正如我們上個季度提到的,我們的數據以及與客戶的交流表明,他們很難找到合格的候選人。作為業界的創新領導者,我們抓住這個機會,透過在我們 PEO 中啟動一個名為「最佳雇主手冊」的新計劃來幫助這些企業。

  • This program combines our digital HR technology and analytics with our dedicated HR professionals to work directly with our clients to find and attract, hire and retain qualified employees. It starts with our digital recruiting and hiring technology, which provides both seamless integrations with the top job boards. This solution streamlines and automates the hiring process for the employer and provides a better candidate experience.

    該計劃將我們的數位化人力資源技術和分析與我們專業的人力資源人員相結合,直接與我們的客戶合作,以尋找和吸引、僱用和留住合格的員工。首先,我們採用數位化招聘技術,可與頂級招聘網站無縫整合。此方案簡化並自動化了雇主的招募流程,並為求職者提供了更好的體驗。

  • Our PEO clients are able to attract top talent by offering a Fortune 500 suite of employee wellness benefits as well. To help them retain employees, our HR professionals proactively work with our clients to leverage our HR data analytics, and we are retention insights to identify at-risk employees, determine the top drivers of turnover, and implement strategies to engage and develop their people.

    我們的 PEO 客戶能夠透過提供媲美財富 500 強企業的員工福利體系來吸引頂尖人才。為了幫助客戶留住員工,我們的人力資源專業人員積極與客戶合作,利用我們的人力資源數據分析和留任洞察來識別有離職風險的員工,確定員工流失的主要原因,並實施策略來吸引和發展員工。

  • We are excited to offer a comprehensive solution to help our clients solve one of their biggest problems, hiring and retaining talented employees. We are planning more innovations in this area for all our market segments in the coming fiscal year.

    我們很高興能夠提供全面的解決方案,幫助我們的客戶解決他們面臨的最大問題之一:招募和留住優秀員工。在下一個財政年度,我們計劃在所有市場領域推出更多創新措施。

  • Our PEO business has continued to gain momentum with excellent performance in fiscal year 2024. We finished the year with strong results and sales, retention, and insurance enrollment. We have continued to see a shift back towards the PEO offering, both inside and outside our client base. This mix shift value our model, particularly as clients attach insurance benefits.

    我們的 PEO 業務在 2024 財年持續保持強勁成長勢頭,業績表現優異。我們以強勁的業績結束了這一年,銷售、客戶留存率和保險註冊率均表現良好。我們看到,無論是在我們的客戶群內部還是外部,人們都持續地重新轉向 PEO 服務。這種組合改變了我們模型的價值,尤其是在客戶附加保險福利的情況下。

  • Our retirement services business was another strong contributor in the fourth quarter with double-digit revenue growth. As the industry leader in 401(k) plan record-keeping in the US with approximately $52 billion in assets under management and over 120,000 clients, we are dedicated to helping small and midsized business owners, offering an affordable retirement solution for their employees.

    我們的退休服務業務在第四季也貢獻強勁,實現了兩位數的營收成長。作為美國 401(k) 計畫記錄保存產業的領導者,我們管理約 520 億美元的資產,擁有超過 12 萬名客戶,致力於幫助中小企業主,為他們的員工提供負擔得起的退休解決方案。

  • According to our own data, less than half of US employers currently offer a retirement plan. We are committed to providing affordable solutions to these companies that will help them offer their employees the opportunity for a secure retirement. Legislation like the SECURE Act and SECURE Act 2.0, the introduction of pooled employer plans, and state mandates are helping to address the growing retirement crisis in the US, but there is still more to be done.

    根據我們自己的數據,目前美國只有不到一半的雇主提供退休計畫。我們致力於為這些公司提供經濟實惠的解決方案,幫助他們為員工提供有保障的退休生活。《SECURE法案》和《SECURE法案2.0》等立法、引入集合雇主計劃以及各州的強制性規定,都在幫助解決美國日益嚴重的退休危機,但仍有許多工作要做。

  • We are committed to educating business owners in industry professionals on available program, potential tax benefits, and the cost-effective plans available to them and their employees by Paychex.

    我們致力於向企業主和行業專業人士普及 Paychex 提供的計劃、潛在的稅收優惠以及他們及其員工可享受的成本效益計劃。

  • As you know, AI has been a hot topic in our industry and is something we have focused on for many years. Our AI initiatives and investments have been centered around enhancing our customer service model and identifying clients that are at risk, optimizing our pricing and discounting strategies, and driving higher sales productivity through improved marketing and targeting efforts.

    如您所知,人工智慧一直是我們行業的熱門話題,也是我們多年來一直關注的領域。我們的人工智慧計畫和投資主要圍繞著以下幾個方面:增強客戶服務模式,識別有風險的客戶,優化定價和折扣策略,並透過改善行銷和目標定位工作來提高銷售效率。

  • Additionally, we are focused on harnessing the power of our vast data to drive more value for our customers and continue to drive greater operational efficiencies across the company.

    此外,我們致力於利用龐大的數據為客戶創造更多價值,並持續提高公司整體的營運效率。

  • We continue to gain recognition for the strength of our technology. For the fifth consecutive year, Paychex Flex, the company's cloud-based SaaS solution earned an HR Tech award for best small-business-focused solution in the core HR and workforce category from White House Research and Advisory.

    我們的技術實力不斷獲得認可。Paychex Flex 是該公司的雲端 SaaS 解決方案,連續第五年榮獲白宮研究與顧問公司頒發的「最佳小型企業核心人力資源和勞動力解決方案」人力資源科技獎。

  • For the 10th time, Paychex was name among the best employers in excellence in health and well-being, which affirms our long-standing commitment to our own employees. Paychex was also recently recognized by Forbes as one of the America's best employers for diversity.

    Paychex 第十次被評為健康和福祉方面表現卓越的最佳雇主之一,這肯定了我們對員工的長期承諾。Paychex 最近也被《富比士》評為美國最具多元化雇主之一。

  • These recognitions and the many product and service awards that we have received in the last year and over the decades were our testament to the strength of our business model, our culture, and our commitment to invest in our business to deliver long-term value for our customers and our investors.

    在過去一年以及過去幾十年裡,我們獲得的這些認可和眾多產品和服務獎項,證明了我們商業模式的實力、我們的企業文化以及我們致力於投資業務、為客戶和投資者創造長期價值的承諾。

  • In this post-pandemic era, Paychex's uniquely positioned to help small and mid-sized businesses navigate the challenges they face in an ever-evolving world, and we believe our value proposition to these businesses remains compelling based upon the breadth and quality of the solutions we can't provide. We remain committed to our purpose to help businesses succeed while making a positive impact on our clients, employees, communities, and shareholders.

    在後疫情時代,Paychex 憑藉其獨特的優勢,能夠幫助中小企業應對不斷變化的世界中面臨的挑戰。我們相信,基於我們無法提供的解決方案的廣度和質量,我們對這些企業的價值主張仍然具有吸引力。我們始終致力於幫助企業取得成功,同時為我們的客戶、員工、社區和股東帶來正面影響。

  • I'll now turn it over to Bob to give us a brief update on our financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year.

    現在我將把發言權交給鮑勃,讓他簡要介紹一下我們第四季度和本財年的財務業績。

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a summary of our fourth quarter and full-year financial results and review our fiscal '25 outlook.

    謝謝你,約翰,大家早安。我將首先總結我們第四季和全年的財務業績,並回顧我們 2025 財年的展望。

  • Total revenue increased 5% to $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter, which reflects a lower contribution from our ERTC service, and this impacted our revenue growth by approximately 300 basis points in the quarter. Management solutions revenue increased 3% to $930 million. This was driven primarily by growth in the number of clients served across our HCM solutions and increase product penetration, partially offset by lower ERTC revenue.

    第四季總營收成長 5% 至 13 億美元,反映出我們的 ERTC 服務貢獻減少,導致本季營收成長下降約 300 個基點。管理解決方案營收成長 3%,達到 9.3 億美元。這主要得益於我們 HCM 解決方案所服務客戶數量的成長和產品滲透率的提高,但部分被 ERTC 收入的下降所抵消。

  • PEO and insurance solutions revenue increased 9% to $327 million. This is primarily driven by higher average worksite employees and an increase in our PEO insurance revenues. Our PEO saw continued momentum in worksite employee growth and medical plan participant volumes during the fourth quarter.

    PEO和保險解決方案收入成長9%,達到3.27億美元。這主要是由於工作場所平均員工人數增加以及我們的 PEO 保險收入成長所致。在第四季度,我們的 PEO 業務在工作場所員工成長和醫療計劃參與者數量方面繼續保持成長勢頭。

  • Interest on funds held for clients increased 54% to $38 million. This was primarily due to higher average interest rates and invested balances and lower realized losses on investment sales related to some repositioning of the portfolio that happened in the prior year period.

    為客戶持有的資金利息增加了 54%,達到 3,800 萬美元。這主要是由於平均利率和投資餘額較高,以及與上一年期間投資組合重新調整相關的投資銷售已實現損失較低。

  • During the fourth quarter, we did recognize a one-time charge of $39 million related to cost optimization initiatives. These initiatives include a reduction of our underutilized real estate, a reprioritization of our technology investments towards AI, and headcount optimization. These measures, along with strong expense management during the year will allow us to reallocate resources to invest in our strategic priorities as well as continued to deliver operating margin expansion for fiscal '25 despite the expiration of the ERTC program.

    第四季度,我們確認了一筆與成本優化計畫相關的3,900萬美元一次性費用。這些舉措包括減少我們未充分利用的房地產、將技術投資的優先順序重新調整為人工智慧以及優化人員編制。這些措施,加上本年度強有力的費用管理,將使我們能夠重新分配資源,投資於我們的戰略重點,並在 2025 財年繼續實現營業利潤率的增長,儘管 ERTC 計劃已經到期。

  • Including these charges, total expenses increased 5% to $813 million. Excluding these charges, total expenses were relatively flat for the fourth quarter as compared to the prior year period.

    加上這些費用,總支出增加了 5%,達到 8.13 億美元。剔除這些費用後,第四季的總支出與去年同期相比基本持平。

  • Operating income increased 6% to $482 million for the operating margin of 37.2%. Adjusted operating income, which excludes the one-time costs recognized in the fourth quarter grew 15% to $521 million, with an adjusted operating margin of 40.2%. And this represents 330 basis points of margin expansion over the prior year period.

    營業收入成長 6% 至 4.82 億美元,營業利益率為 37.2%。經調整後的營業收入(不包括第四季確認的一次性成本)成長 15% 至 5.21 億美元,經調整後的營業利潤率為 40.2%。這意味著利潤率較上年同期成長了330個基點。

  • Diluted earnings per share increased 8% to $1.5 per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 15% to $1.12 in the fourth quarter.

    第四季稀釋後每股收益成長 8% 至 1.5 美元,調整後稀釋後每股收益成長 15% 至 1.12 美元。

  • Now I will quickly summarize our full-year results. Total revenue grew 5% to $5.3 billion and reflects a lower contribution from our ERTC service. And that impacted growth about 100 basis points on a full-year basis. Management solutions revenue increased 4% to $3.9 billion. PEO and insurance solutions increased 8% to $1.3 billion. Interest on fund sales for clients increased 47% to $146 million.

    現在我將快速總結我們全年的業績。總營收成長 5% 至 53 億美元,反映出 ERTC 服務的貢獻下降。這導致全年成長率下降了約 100 個基點。管理解決方案營收成長4%,達到39億美元。 PEO(專業雇主組織)保險解決方案成長 8%,達到 13 億美元。客戶基金銷售利息收入成長 47%,達到 1.46 億美元。

  • Total expenses grew 4% to $3.1 billion. Excluding the one-time costs I discussed earlier, expense growth was approximately 3% for the year. Operating income increased 7% to $2.2 billion, and adjusted operating income increased 9% to $2.2 billion, with a margin of 41.9%, and that's an expansion of 130 basis points over the prior year period. Diluted earnings per share increased 9% to $4.67 per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 11% to $4.72 per share.

    總支出成長4%,達31億美元。除去我前面提到的一次性成本,全年支出成長率約為 3%。營業收入成長 7% 至 22 億美元,調整後營業收入成長 9% 至 22 億美元,利潤率為 41.9%,比去年同期成長 130 個基點。稀釋後每股收益成長 9% 至 4.67 美元,調整後稀釋後每股收益成長 11% 至 4.72 美元。

  • Our financial position remained strong at the end of the year with cash, restricted cash, and total corporate investments of $1.6 billion in total borrowings of approximately $817 million. Our cash flow from operations for the year was $1.9 billion, and that's up 11% from the prior year. That was driven primarily by higher net income and fluctuations in working capital.

    截至年底,我們的財務狀況依然強勁,現金、受限現金和公司總投資達 16 億美元,總借款約 8.17 億美元。我們今年的經營活動現金流為 19 億美元,比前一年成長了 11%。這主要是由於淨收入增加和營運資金波動所致。

  • We returned $1.5 billion to shareholders during the year. That included $1.3 billion of dividends and $169 million of share buybacks. And our 12-month rolling return on equity remains robust at 47%.

    我們年內向股東返還了15億美元。其中包括13億美元的股利和1.69億美元的股票回購。我們的12個月滾動股本回報率依然強勁,達到47%。

  • I will now turn to our guidance for the fiscal year 2025. This outlook assumes the current macro environment, which has some level of uncertainty. Our current outlook is as follows.

    接下來,我將介紹我們對 2025 財政年度的指導。這項展望是基於當前宏觀環境的假設,而當前的宏觀環境存在一定程度的不確定性。我們目前的展望如下。

  • Total revenue is expected to grow in the range of 4% to 5.5%. If you take the midpoint of this range, that is consistent with the preliminary thinking we provided last quarter. And as a reminder, this includes approximately 200 basis points of headwind from the expiration of ERTC.

    預計總收入將成長 4% 至 5.5%。如果取這個範圍的中點,那就與我們上季提供的初步想法是一致的。提醒一下,這其中包括ERTC到期所帶來的約200個基點的不利影響。

  • Adjusted diluted earnings per shares elected to grow in the range of 5% to 7%. I will now give you the breakdown of some of the components. Management solutions is expected to grow in the range of 3% to 4%. PEO and insurance solutions is expected to grow in the range of 7% to 9%. Interest on funds held for clients is expected to be in the range of $150 million to $160 million.

    經調整後的稀釋每股盈餘選擇成長 5% 至 7%。接下來我將詳細介紹其中一些組成部分。管理解決方案預計將成長 3% 至 4%。PEO 和保險解決方案預計將成長 7% 至 9%。預計為客戶持有的資金利息將在 1.5 億美元至 1.6 億美元之間。

  • Other income net is expected to be income in the range of $35 million to $40 million. Those last two metrics, both impacted by short-term interest rates. We can talk more in the Q&A, but it is our expectation that the Fed begins to lower short-term interest rates as we get into the back half of the year.

    其他淨收入預計在 3500 萬美元至 4000 萬美元之間。最後這兩個指標都受到短期利率的影響。我們可以在問答環節進一步討論,但我們預計聯準會將在今年下半年開始降低短期利率。

  • Operating income margin is expected to be in the range of 42% to 43%. This is also consistent with our preliminary expectations around margin expansion and our effective tax rate is expected to be in the range of 24% to 25%.

    預計營業利潤率將在 42% 至 43% 之間。這也與我們對利潤率擴張的初步預期相符,我們的實際稅率預計將在 24% 至 25% 之間。

  • Turning to the quarter, we anticipate total revenue growth of approximately 2%. The first-quarter growth rate is impacted by two headwinds. The first is the ERTC headwind that you're all familiar with. The second one is one less processing day in the quarter versus the prior year, and it's one of our largest revenue days. Combined, these two items represent a headwind of more than 400 basis points to revenue growth.

    展望本季度,我們預計總收入將成長約 2%。第一季成長率受到兩大不利因素的影響。首先是大家都很熟悉的ERTC逆風。第二個變化是本季的處理日比前一年少一天,而這一天是我們收入最高的日子之一。這兩個因素加起來,對營收成長構成超過 400 個基點的不利影響。

  • We would also expect an operating margin in the room range of 40% to 41% in the quarter. Of course, all of this is based on our current assumptions, which are subject to change. We'll update you again on the first quarter call. I will refer you to our investor slides on our website for additional information. And with that, I'll now turn the call back over to John.

    我們也預計本季客房營業利潤率將在 40% 至 41% 之間。當然,這一切都是基於我們目前的假設,而這些假設可能會改變。我們將在第一季財報電話會議上再次向您報告最新情況。更多資訊請參閱我們網站上的投資者簡報。那麼,我現在就把電話轉回給約翰。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Thank you, Bob. We will now open the call for questions.

    謝謝你,鮑伯。現在開始接受提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Bryan Bergin, TD Cowen.

    (操作說明)布萊恩·伯金,TD Cowen。

  • Bryan Bergin - Analyst

    Bryan Bergin - Analyst

  • Hi, guys. Good morning. Thank you. And maybe we'll just kick off with the demand and go-to-market commentary that you had there, John. Can you just give more color on your comments on the lower close rates? And the go-to-market changes you think you're making? I'm curious about what was required because of something in your strategy and sales practices or reactions here.

    嗨,大家好。早安.謝謝。或許我們可以先從你剛才提到的市場需求和市場進入策略談起,約翰。您能否更詳細地解釋一下您對較低成交率的看法?你認為你正在進行的市場推廣策略調整是什麼?我很好奇,由於你們的策略、銷售策略或應對措施中存在某些問題,所以才出現了這種情況。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yeah, Bryan, just step back. I'd say, we had solid demand on our solutions for the year. Activity was high across the teams. As we talked about, and you can tell from the results, the HR outsourcing and HR advisory areas are really picking up attraction with the market. That's what we're seeing versus the pure tech. And so we certainly are pivoting heavy into that. Retirement also is another area where we can see that.

    布萊恩,你退後一步。我認為,今年我們的解決方案需求非常強勁。各隊活動量都很高。正如我們之前討論過的,而且從結果也可以看出,人力資源外包和人力資源諮詢領域正在受到市場的廣泛關注。這就是我們看到的與純粹技術之間的差異。因此,我們肯定會大力轉向這方面。退休領域也是我們可以看到這一點的另一個面向。

  • So look, we see good demand for our products. The changes we're making are really -- we talked about it on the last call, we're really re-looking at, as you can imagine, we just went through the last three years of a pandemic year.

    你看,我們的產品需求很好。我們正在做出的改變——我們在上次電話會議上討論過——正如你所想,我們正在重新審視過去三年,那三年是疫情肆虐的一年。

  • As the ERTC program ends, we're really refreshing our entire go-to-market talking points, our sales plays, our marketing position, and really focused on the things that we find clients are most concerned about in today's post-pandemic world. And those things are attracting and retaining qualified employees in the very tight labor market.

    隨著 ERTC 專案的結束,我們正在全面更新我們的市場推廣策略、銷售策略和市場定位,並真正專注於我們發現客戶在當今疫情時代最關心的事情。這些措施有助於在競爭激烈的勞動市場中吸引和留住合格的員工。

  • The second thing is being able to get access to affordable benefits with health inflation likely to continue to increase, and they've really got to be able to put together a benefits package to be able to go out and compete against larger firms.

    第二點是,隨著醫療通膨可能繼續上升,企業必須能夠獲得負擔得起的福利,他們真的需要製定一套福利方案,才能與規模更大的公司競爭。

  • And then the third thing is access to capital in both constrained capital and cost of capital. I think we made a little tuck-in acquisition of a company out there that we're very excited about, and we continue to expand our digital access to fintech so that our clients have access to capital during the payroll process as well. So we're really trying to retrain our sales team on those new areas. We also are pivoting some of our resources into those market segments where we think there's going to be higher growth as we go into fiscal year '25.

    第三點是取得資本的途徑,包括資本受限和資本成本。我認為我們收購了一家我們非常興奮的公司,我們將繼續擴大我們在金融科技領域的數位化管道,以便我們的客戶在薪資發放過程中也能獲得資金。所以我們正在努力對銷售團隊進行這些新領域的再培訓。隨著我們進入 2025 財年,我們也正在將部分資源轉移到我們認為會有更高成長的市場領域。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kevin McVeigh, UBS.

    凱文麥克維,瑞銀集團。

  • Kevin McVeigh - Analyst

    Kevin McVeigh - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much, and always super, super helpful commentary. Hey, John, could you maybe talk a little bit about, you know, because I find your commentary in the press release is super helpful. Just it seems like the environment overall, if we're hearing it right, is still relatively tight labor as opposed to maybe some increase in capacity. Maybe, are we right on that?

    偉大的。非常感謝,您的評論總是超級有幫助。嘿,約翰,你能不能稍微談談……你知道,因為我覺得你在新聞稿中的評論非常有幫助。就目前的情況來看,如果我們理解沒錯的話,整體環境似乎仍然是勞動市場相對緊張,而不是產能有所成長。或許,我們的看法是對的?

  • And maybe think about kind of the current environment in terms of clients and where their kind of retention rates are of their employees. Has there been any change at the margin on that? I just want to start there because it feels like some of the macro data, employment-related is slowing a little bit, but it definitely, if I'm understanding right, doesn't seem like you're seeing that yet, or am I not thinking about that right?

    或許還可以考慮一下當前顧客環境以及他們的員工留存率。這方面是否有任何變化?我只是想從這裡開始,因為感覺一些宏觀數據,特別是與就業相關的數據,正在放緩,但如果我理解正確的話,你似乎還沒有註意到這一點,或者我沒有考慮到這一點?

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Look, I think on the macro area, what we continue to see is growth and moderate growth. We continue to see wage inflation cool. I would tell you in May in our report, we had the biggest one-month increase there. As we said in our comments, we actually saw growth in checks and worksite employees in the fourth quarter, and that was a positive trend.

    我認為,從宏觀層面來看,我們將繼續看到成長和溫和成長。我們看到薪資通膨持續降溫。我會在五月的報告中提到,我們五月的增幅是當時最大的一個月。正如我們在評論中所說,第四季度我們的檢查次數和工作場所員工人數實際上都有所增長,這是一個積極的趨勢。

  • We started engaging, because again, when you've got the economy growing at the rate it's growing, our models would suggest that you'd see more hiring. So to your point, what's going on here? And what we did is we went out and started looking at our analytics and data, and to the point, retaining clients is a challenge for small business owners.

    我們開始參與其中,因為正如我們之前預測的那樣,當經濟以目前的速度成長時,我們的模型表明應該會有更多人被招募。所以,你剛才說的到底是怎麼回事?我們所做的就是走出去,開始查看我們的分析和數據,結果發現,留住客戶對小企業主來說是一個挑戰。

  • Second, attracting qualified. And so we started engaging them. We did a lot of surveys, and what we found was they have open positions. They're just struggling to find them with qualified individuals. And I think another thing they learned during the pandemic, when everyone was just trying to hire just anybody, that hiring just anybody doesn't help your culture or your workforce. And so I think they're being a little more selective.

    其次,吸引合格人才。於是我們開始與他們接觸。我們做了很多調查,發現他們有很多空缺。他們只是很難找到合格的人才。我認為他們在疫情期間學到的另一件事是,當每個人都試圖隨便招人時,隨便招人對你的文化或員工隊伍沒有好處。所以我認為他們現在更加挑剔了。

  • So we rolled out a series of products. We'll have more on the way. We started it in the PEO because that's an area where we have a lot of direct contact with the client and their employees, and started doing a lot of comprehensive work, both on retention and helping them directly attract using both our technology capabilities as well as our AI capabilities, and then directly building recruiting strategies. And we saw success in that program, and we're going to look to continue to move that forward as we go forward.

    因此,我們推出了一系列產品。後續還會有更多。我們首先在 PEO 領域進行這項工作,因為在這個領域我們與客戶及其員工有很多直接接觸,並開始進行大量的綜合性工作,包括員工保留和利用我們的技術能力和人工智慧能力直接幫助他們吸引人才,然後直接製定招聘策略。我們看到了該專案的成功,我們將繼續推進該專案的發展。

  • But we're not seeing any signs of a recession or hearing from our clients or seeing layoffs or seeing those type of things that we would typically see in a recessionary period.

    但是我們沒有看到任何經濟衰退的跡象,也沒有收到客戶的回饋,沒有看到裁員,也沒有看到我們通常在經濟衰退時期會看到的那些事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • James Faucette, Morgan Stanley.

    詹姆斯‧福塞特,摩根士丹利。

  • James Faucette - Analyst

    James Faucette - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much. I want to go back a little bit on the changes you were making in the micro segment. And just to be clear, was that something that you felt like you needed to do for your own product, or were you seeing some market pressures, et cetera, on that segment? And when you say one time, how quickly should we start to see some of those sales conversions, et cetera, come back to more normalized levels?

    偉大的。非常感謝。我想稍微回顧一下你們在微型領域所做的改變。為了明確起見,您覺得這是您需要為自己的產品做的事情,還是您看到了該細分市場的一些市場壓力等等?你說“一次”,那麼我們應該多久才能看到銷售轉換率等指標恢復到正常水平?

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yeah. Look, we'll make this pretty simple. As we got through the selling season, as everyone knows, after our selling season is the time to begin to introduce new technology platforms and other things into our sales and marketing engine as we gear up for the next fiscal year.

    是的。好的,我們會盡量簡化這個問題。如大家所知,銷售季結束後,我們需要開始將新的技術平台和其他事物引入我們的銷售和行銷引擎中,為下一個財政年度做好準備。

  • One of the things we're constantly trying to do is improve the prospect experience digitally from the time of attraction all the way through to running their first payroll and doing as much of that digitally as possible. One of the things that we've been working on were some ways in which we wanted to improve that customer experience in ways that we thought we could enhance digital attraction in the micro market.

    我們一直在努力改善潛在客戶的數位化體驗,從吸引潛在客戶到發放第一筆薪資,盡可能實現數位轉型。我們一直在研究的其中一件事是,如何改善客戶體驗,以增強微型市場中的數位化吸引力。

  • So think of this in the digital micro market. We make some technology platform changes. We introduce some other third-party capabilities there. And to just be blunt, we had some integration issues. And any time. you have a disruption in that process, the people bug out of the process. And so you just did not have the lead, but conversion issues.

    所以,請從數位微型市場的角度來思考這個問題。我們對技術平台進行了一些更改。我們在那裡引入了一些其他第三方功能。坦白說,我們遇到了一些整合問題。任何時候,如果這個過程受到干擾,人們就會退出這個過程。所以你不僅沒有領先優勢,還有轉換率的問題。

  • Now, we can go back and go after those individuals, but again, it was just not smooth, and we've got that behind us at this point in time. So that was what I would say a very specific market segment and a very specific technology upgrade that we were doing, and I do believe that that upgrade will end up giving us better conversion rates and better attraction rates as we go into fiscal year '25.

    現在,我們可以回頭追查那些人,但話說回來,這個過程並不順利,不過目前我們已經把這件事拋在腦後了。所以,這就是我所說的,我們正在進行的一個非常具體的市場區隔和一個非常具體的技術升級,而且我相信,隨著我們進入 2025 財年,這項升級最終將為我們帶來更高的轉換率和更高的客戶吸引力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Samad Samana, Jefferies.

    薩馬德·薩馬納,傑富瑞集團。

  • Samad Samana - Analyst

    Samad Samana - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So maybe first just on some of the assumptions underpinning the outlook for the year. I guess first, when you think about the cost action that you did in the fourth quarter, Bob, was that factored in when you gave the preliminary outlook for 2015? I'm just trying to understand how much the cost action is influencing the EPS growth outlook, and then I'll have a couple more quick follow-ups.

    你好。早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。所以,或許首先應該談談支撐今年展望的一些假設。首先,鮑勃,當你考慮你在第四季度採取的成本控制措施時,你在給出2015年初步展望時是否考慮到了這一點?我只是想了解成本調整對每股盈餘成長前景的影響程度,之後我也會提出幾個後續問題。

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah, sure, Samad. Thanks for the question. Yeah, I mean, it absolutely was factored in. I'd say the only thing that surprised us about the end of ERTC was that it happened probably a quarter earlier than what we expected. But we've been -- we knew that it was going to come to an end this year, so we've been really focused all year on preparing for that. John's actually been talking to the team about it for two years, telling us that it was going to come to an end.

    當然可以,薩馬德。謝謝你的提問。是的,我的意思是,這絕對被考慮在內了。我覺得唯一讓我們感到驚訝的是,ERTC 的結束比我們預期的要早一個季度。但我們一直都知道它今年會結束,所以我們一整年都在為此做準備。事實上,約翰兩年前就開始和團隊談論這件事了,他告訴我們這件事終將結束。

  • So we've been focused on our cost savings initiatives, really trying to find ways to continue to enhance our digital capabilities, find ways to be more productive, more efficient while making investments in the business to prepare for this, really focused on not letting new costs in the business. And so we've been working on a plan for 12 months.

    因此,我們一直專注於節約成本的舉措,努力尋找方法來繼續增強我們的數位化能力,尋找提高生產力、提高效率的方法,同時對業務進行投資以做好準備,真正專注於不讓新的成本進入業務。因此,我們已經制定計劃 12 個月了。

  • What you saw as it relates to the cost actions, that's been underway for some time. Obviously, I wasn't going to communicate it, but I had a higher degree of confidence on the execution of those plans, which enabled me to provide the preliminary color around margin expansion that I did on the last call.

    你所看到的與成本控制措施相關的內容,已經實施了一段時間了。顯然,我不會對外透露,但我對這些計劃的執行更有信心,這使我能夠在上次電話會議上就利潤率擴張問題提供初步資訊。

  • Samad Samana - Analyst

    Samad Samana - Analyst

  • Great. And then as I just look at the data from this year, it looks like client growth was about 60 basis points. If I look at the 745,000 clients versus the 740,000 ending last year and WSE growth, 2.3%, versus 2.2% is about 4.5% growth. What are you assuming for, I guess, client growth and WSE growth in the fiscal '25 outlook?

    偉大的。然後,當我查看今年的數據時,客戶成長率似乎約為 60 個基點。如果我看一下 745,000 名客戶與去年年底的 740,000 名客戶以及 WSE 成長率,2.3% 對 2.2%,則約為 4.5% 的成長。您對2025財年的客戶成長和WSE成長有何預期?

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah. So a couple of things. We disclosed round numbers there. So the client-based growth was closer to 1% when you have the full numbers and not the round numbers. And I'm not sure on the worksite employee, because our worksite employee growth was up.

    是的。有兩件事。我們在那裡公佈了整數數據。因此,如果採用完整數字而不是整數,基於客戶的成長率接近 1%。我不確定現場員工的狀況,因為我們現場員工人數增加了。

  • It was strong both in ASO, in PEO, and it was close to double digits, I'd say, on the PEO. We've had a lot of strength there. So I'd have to look at those numbers again. But the worksite employee growth across both solutions has been extremely strong this year, in particular in that PEO business.

    在 ASO 和 PEO 都表現強勁,而且在 PEO 中,我認為接近兩位數。我們在那裡擁有強大的實力。所以我得再看看那些數字。但今年,兩種解決方案的工作場所員工成長都非常強勁,尤其是在 PEO 業務方面。

  • Samad Samana - Analyst

    Samad Samana - Analyst

  • Great. I know it's breaking the rules, but I'm just squeeze in third one in because they're just going to have new questions.

    偉大的。我知道這違反了規則,但我還是想硬塞進去第三個問題,因為他們肯定還會問一些新問題。

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • (multiple speakers) I'm sorry, what's your follow-up question on? What the assumption is for next year related to those metrics?

    (多人)不好意思,你們的後續問題是什麼?對於明年的這些指標,我們會做出怎樣的假設?

  • Samad Samana - Analyst

    Samad Samana - Analyst

  • Yeah. What are you embedding in the guidance, right? Just trying to get an idea of how you're thinking about the building blocks between what's called seats or units versus price action versus retention changing in any direction. Just trying to triangle a little bit more on how that 4% to 5.5% range breaks out and what the factors in -- what underpins it?

    是的。你們在指導方針中融入了哪些內容?我只是想了解一下,您是如何看待座位或單元數量與價格走勢以及用戶留存率變化之間這些構成要素的。我只是想更詳細地分析一下 4% 到 5.5% 這個區間是如何細分的,以及其中的因素——是什麼支撐著這個區間?

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah. I'd say our growth formula, which is proven, and the 5% or the 4% to 5.5%, you take the midpoint of that. You've got to factor in the 200 basis point headwind from ERTC. I'd say very similar. We're always putting together plans. We're trying to find ways to be more productive from a sales standpoint, trying to sell more and lose less and drive client-based growth. I'd say we're not as maybe dependent on that is others because we have lots of different solutions that we can sell, and we want to get client-based growth.

    是的。我認為,按照我們經過驗證的成長公式,也就是 5% 或 4% 到 5.5% 的比例,取其中數值即可。你必須把ERTC帶來的200個基點的不利因素考慮進去。我覺得非常相似。我們一直在製定計劃。我們正在努力尋找提高銷售效率的方法,爭取賣出更多產品,減少損失,並推動以客戶為中心的成長。我認為我們可能不像其他公司那樣依賴這些,因為我們有很多不同的解決方案可以銷售,而且我們希望獲得以客戶為基礎的成長。

  • And then the big part of the formula is really going back into that base and getting a larger share of wallet over time. We've driven a lot of growth historically in our ability to do that when you look at kind of the penetration rates in those key solutions. And John really mentioned them, ASO, PEO, retirement. We have a lot of momentum in those businesses, and there's still a lot of runway within the existing client base.

    然後,這個策略的關鍵在於真正回到這個基礎市場,並隨著時間的推移獲得更大的市場份額。從歷史數據來看,我們在這方面的能力推動了很大的成長,從這些關鍵解決方案的滲透率就能看出來。約翰確實提到了他們,ASO、PEO、退休。我們在這些業務領域發展勢頭強勁,在現有客戶群中仍有很大的發展空間。

  • Pricing, we've talked a little bit this year about maybe pricing being a little bit of a headwind or a little bit less than our expectations. I will tell you the price realization in our model is still strong. Maybe our expectations, this year were a bit high, but pricing in our model is still strong, and that would be a contributor to growth next year, maybe not at the same level it has the last couple years. But when you kind of put those things together, that gets you close to the end. So that growth rate ex-ERTC that's implied in the guide.

    定價方面,我們今年已經討論過一些問題,定價可能會成為一些不利因素,或略低於我們的預期。我可以告訴你,我們模型中的價格實現依然強勁。或許我們今年的預期有點高,但我們模型的定價仍然很強勁,這將有助於明年的成長,雖然可能不會達到過去幾年的水平。但當你把這些事情綜合起來,你就離終點不遠了。所以,指南中隱含的成長率(不包括 ERTC)是這樣的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jason Kupferberg, Bank of America.

    傑森·庫柏伯格,美國銀行。

  • Caroline North - Analyst

    Caroline North - Analyst

  • Hi, this is Caroline North on for Jason. I just wanted to get in a little bit more on pricing. I know you guys just kind of mentioned it, but Berkeley Paychex would periodically, talk about taking like 2% to 4% of price in an average year. But given that there are some signs of softness in SMBs, might the lower end of the range be more likely this year?

    大家好,我是卡洛琳·諾斯,替傑森為您報道。我只是想再深入了解定價方面的情況。我知道你們剛才也提到了,但柏克萊 Paychex 會定期表示,平均每年會收取房價的 2% 到 4%。但鑑於中小企業出現一些疲軟跡象,今年的預期值更有可能落在區間下限嗎?

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • I would tell you this, that our growth formula that we've historically had is well intact. I think that particularly when you even look, I look at these numbers, ex-ERTC, there's so many headwinds of things that are difficult to look at over the last three years, because you have the PPP, you have ERTC. You had a lot of one-time programs that we were engaging our clients with, which was critical for their success. And that certainly gave us a lot of opportunities to talk to our clients about the value we provide.

    我可以告訴你們的是,我們歷來奉行的成長模式依然完好無損。我認為,特別是當你仔細觀察這些數據(不包括ERTC)時,你會發現過去三年裡有很多難以看清的不利因素,因為有PPP,有ERTC。你們有很多一次性項目,我們透過這些項目與客戶互動,這對他們的成功至關重要。這無疑給了我們許多機會與客戶探討我們所提供的價值。

  • What Bob said is exactly what we would say. We continue to have good value pricing opportunities in our base, and we have a demonstrated track record that as we bring clients in, we can move them up the value chain, demonstrate, demonstrate value, and get price realization. So I think that the historical pricing capabilities that we have in the market, we continue to see and we continue to believe those are sustainable into the future.

    鮑伯說的正是我們要說的。我們的客戶群中仍然有很多物美價廉的機會,而且我們有充分的業績證明,當我們吸引客戶時,我們可以幫助他們提升價值鏈,展示價值,並實現價格目標。所以我認為,我們目前在市場上擁有的歷史定價能力,我們繼續看到並相信這些能力在未來是可持續的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

    安德魯·尼古拉斯,威廉·布萊爾。

  • Andrew Nicholas - Analyst

    Andrew Nicholas - Analyst

  • Hi. Thank you for taking my questions and good morning. I wanted to double back on the PEO works at employee growth that you cited. I think you said close to double digits. You mentioned both this quarter and in past quarters, some of the things that you've done and some of the things that are going really well.

    你好。感謝您回答我的問題,早安。我想再補充一下您提到的 PEO 對員工成長的影響。我想你之前說的是接近兩位數。您在本季度和過去的幾個季度都提到了您所做的一些事情以及一些進展非常順利的事情。

  • I just -- maybe to ask it more simply, like how do you get to that number? What are the number of things that you think are driving? Is it competitive differentiation? Is it the market being more receptive to more HR outsourcing? Is it something that you've done with your insurance plans? Is there any way to kind of break down kind of where all these new wins are coming from? Just a really strong number, so I wanted to get a better sense for what's going on in the market.

    我只是——或許更簡單地問一下,你是如何得到這個數字的?你認為有哪些因素在起作用?這是競爭差異化嗎?市場是否越來越接受人力資源外包?這是您在保險計劃方面做過的事情嗎?有沒有辦法分析這些新勝利都來自哪裡?這個數字非常強勁,所以我希望更好地了解市場正在發生什麼。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yeah, Andrew, it is a very strong number. And the thing to remember is we did not reach our expectations in terms of worksite growth inside the client base. I mean, if the economy growing, at the rate it's growing, we expected to see a lot more worksite employee hires in the PEO. That's part of the reason why we put this hiring program in place in the PEO, because what we heard from our clients there was they were -- they had a lot of openings, but they were struggling to find them.

    是的,安德魯,這是一個非常高的數字。需要記住的是,我們在客戶群內部的工作現場成長方面沒有達到預期目標。我的意思是,如果經濟以目前的速度成長,我們預期 PEO 會僱用更多的工作場所員工。這也是我們在 PEO 中實施這項招募計畫的部分原因,因為我們從客戶那裡了解到,他們有很多職缺,但卻很難找到合適的人選。

  • So these numbers are very impressive and they're volume driven. I think we do have a very competitive offering. We did a lot of things on our insurance program. We had strong medical attachment exceeding our expectations. And then the enrollment based upon the breadth of the offerings that we're providing the employees, the participation rates actually increased as well.

    所以這些數字非常驚人,而且是成交量驅動的。我認為我們的產品和服務非常有競爭力。我們在保險計劃方面做了很多事情。我們獲得了超出預期的優質醫療服務。而且,隨著我們提供給員工的課程種類越來越豐富,報名人數也隨之增加,參與率也隨之提升。

  • So really pretty much across the board when I look at it, I think there's increasing demand for HR advisory and HR outsourcing solutions. And again, I remind everybody that's one of the things that I think is going to end up differentiating Paychex is we can go all the way from a pure tech play, which maybe there's a little more choppiness in, all the way up to a full outsourcing play.

    所以總的來說,我認為各方面對人力資源諮詢和人力資源外包解決方案的需求都在增加。我再次提醒大家,我認為 Paychex 的一大優勢在於,我們可以從純粹的科技企業(雖然這種模式可能波動較大)一路發展到全面的外包業務。

  • And when you have inflationary and you're trying to do more with less and you're trying to look at cutting costs, the old play of outsourcing moves in there. So now do I need to add another person to my HR department? Do I even need to add an HR person? Or can I outsource that? I think there's a growing demand and interest and I think in an inflationary and where people are being very cost conscious, outsourcing is one of the key tools.

    當通貨膨脹加劇,人們試圖用更少的資源做更多的事情,並試圖削減成本時,外包這種老套的策略就派上了用場。那麼現在我需要再給人力資源部門增加一個人嗎?我還需要增設人事部門嗎?或者我可以把這份工作外包出去嗎?我認為市場需求和興趣正在增長,在通貨膨脹和人們非常注重成本的情況下,外包是關鍵工具之一。

  • Everyone goes to an ACFO knows you go to outsourcing when you want to cut your costs. And we've got the offering to do that. And I think we've positioned our value proposition very strongly against the competitive set that we're going up against.

    每個人去顧問財務長都知道,想要降低成本就該選擇外包。我們有能力做到這一點。我認為,我們已經非常有力地確立了我們的價值主張,以對抗我們所面臨的競爭對手。

  • Andrew Nicholas - Analyst

    Andrew Nicholas - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. That's certainly where a lot of the competitors are moving towards in terms of the spectrum. So I appreciate the color.

    偉大的。謝謝。就產品範圍而言,這無疑是許多競爭對手的發展方向。我很喜歡這種顏色。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Better late than never.

    亡羊補牢,為時未晚。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

    Ashish Sabadra,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

    Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question. I just had two quick questions on the first-quarter guidance. First one on [tax]. If I understood correctly, 2% revenue growth, that's a material slowdown compared to 5%. You saw in the fourth quarter, I understand the one less processing day, but the ERTC headwinds were in the fourth quarter as well.

    謝謝您回答我的問題。我有兩個關於第一季業績預期的小問題。第一個[稅]。如果我理解正確的話,2%的營收成長率與5%相比,成長率明顯放緩。我知道第四季處理天數減少了一天,但ERTC的不利因素也出現在第四季。

  • So just trying to bridge that gap on what's causing that slow down. And then on the margins, the margins at the midpoint of [41 to 42] would suggest a modest decline in margins in the first quarter. And so just wanted to better understand the puts and takes weighing on margins on the first quarter and then the improvement as we go through the year. Thanks. **

    所以,我只是想弄清楚造成這種速度放緩的原因。然後,從邊際來看,[41 至 42] 中間點的邊際率顯示第一季的邊際率略有下降。因此,我只是想更了解第一季對利潤率的影響,以及隨著年內利潤率的改善情況。謝謝。**

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah, Ashish. I'm actually surprised it took this long into the Q&A to get the question on Q1. Obviously, the 2% number, I think people would look at that and you really need to -- and have some questions. You need to peel back the onion a little bit and understand that I'd say, that we -- I talked about the ERTC headwind being a 200 base head point -- a 200 basis point headwind on a full-year basis. Obviously, that's larger in the first half and in the first quarter, and that subsides as we go through the year.

    是的,阿什什。說實話,我很驚訝問答環節已經過了這麼久才出現第一個問題。顯然,對於 2% 這個數字,我認為人們會關注它,而且你真的需要——並且會產生一些疑問。你需要稍微深入了解一下,就會明白我的意思——我之前說過,ERTC 的不利影響是 200 個基點——全年 200 個基點的不利影響。顯然,上半年和第一季的增幅更大,隨著時間的推移,增幅會逐漸減少。

  • So it's north of 300 basis points. It's a stronger headwind in Q4. And then listen, processing days, typically they balance out through the year and a given year. They can have an impact on the quarter. It's not going to have much of an impact on the full year. We're actually losing one of our bigger days of the week in the quarter. So that certainly is a headwind to growth.

    所以它超過了300個基點。第四季面臨的逆風更大。然後聽著,處理日,通常情況下,它們會在一年中以及某一年內達到平衡。它們可能會對該季度業績產生影響。這不會對全年產生太大影響。實際上,我們失去了本季一周中最重要的一天。所以這無疑對成長構成不利影響。

  • I think if you take those two headwinds, and again, I'm giving you around numbers here, you're going to -- and you do the math, you're going to get to a growth rate in Q1 that is very similar to the growth rate ex-ERTC that we delivered in the back half of the year. It's very similar to that.

    我認為,如果考慮到這兩個不利因素,而且我這裡只是給出大概的數字,你算一下,你會發現第一季度的增長率與我們在下半年不計入 ERTC 因素時的增長率非常相似。跟那個非常相似。

  • And obviously, you got to exclude interest rates because we were still getting a fairly significant lift in interest rates in the back half of the year. But if you look at service revenue and you add in those headwinds, you're going to see a growth rate in Q1. That's very similar to what we delivered in the back half of the year. And I'll remind everyone we've had a significant acceleration in the growth rate of the business in the back half ex-ERTC relative to the first half.

    顯然,利率因素必須排除在外,因為下半年利率仍然出現了相當大的成長。但如果你看一下服務收入,再加上這些不利因素,你會發現第一季會出現成長率。這與我們下半年交付的成果非常相似。我還要提醒大家,與上半年相比,下半年(不含 ERTC)業務成長速度顯著加快。

  • So I know the print number or the number on the face of it looks weak. But when you factor in those components, you're still seeing growth that's very similar to what we had in the back half of the year. And then on the margin, there's -- a lot of that is going to do have to do with the ERTC headwind year over year. I mean, ERTC is was highly profitable. It wasn't 100% margin, but it was pretty close to 100% margin. And that's where you see a little bit of a headwind on the margin quarter versus quarter.

    所以我知道印刷數量或表面上的數字看起來很弱。但考慮到這些因素,我們仍然會看到與下半年非常相似的成長。此外,還有很多因素——很大程度上與 ERTC 逐年帶來的不利影響有關。我的意思是,ERTC 獲利能力非常強。雖然利潤率不是100%,但非常接近100%。因此,你會看到季度環比利潤率出現了一些不利因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Christiansen, Citi.

    彼得‧克里斯蒂安森,花旗集團。

  • Peter Christiansen - Analyst

    Peter Christiansen - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning. John, I was just hoping we could do a little bit into your middle market commentary on decision delay that you're seeing there. Is that a function of tech issues or is it high switching cost? Just your thoughts on perhaps switching costs of kind of trended, competitive landscape, what have you. It would be great to hear you expand on that dynamic just a bit more. Thank you.

    謝謝。早安.約翰,我只是想和你稍微探討一下你對中階市場決策延遲問題的評論。這是技術問題導致的,還是轉換成本過高所導致的?您覺得在當前競爭格局下,轉換成本可能會增加嗎?如果您能再詳細闡述這種動態,那就太好了。謝謝。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yeah. Yeah. So let me maybe dive, get a little deeper into this relative to volumes and what we're seeing. So volumes were up for us relative to proposals, across the major groups. And I'd remind everybody, to generate a proposal in our system and it's an AI-based system, we're actually then -- we got to have an engaged client cause there's information we want.

    是的。是的。那麼,讓我深入探討一下,結合成交量和我們所看到的情況,再深入分析一下。因此,相對於提案數量而言,我們各主要群體的提案數量都有所增加。我還要提醒大家,要在我們的系統中產生提案(這是一個基於人工智慧的系統),我們實際上需要一位積極參與的客戶,因為我們需要一些資訊。

  • So this is not, I drove by a place and think they may be interested in Paychex. This is, we counted as in our pipeline, really there's a live proposal that we've got information in the clients and engaging us. So as we said in retirement, we saw volumes up in retirement, actually acceleration in the fourth quarter, ASL and PEO strong and stable. PEO, very strong, including midmarket volumes were up both in the quarter and for the full year.

    所以事情不是這樣的,我開車經過一個地方,覺得他們可能對 Paychex 感興趣。也就是說,我們把這計入我們的專案流程中,實際上有一個正在進行的提案,我們已經掌握了客戶的資訊並與他們接洽。正如我們在退休規劃中所說,我們看到退休規劃業務量有所成長,實際上在第四季度加速成長,ASL 和 PEO 業務強勁且穩定。PEO 表現非常強勁,其中中端市場銷售在本季和全年均有所成長。

  • And what we saw there in the fourth quarter, in the midmarket was more a delay in decision-making. So longer sales cycles. So we have more active deals in the pipeline today, right? Then we did last year at this time, going into the fiscal year, they're not closing out. I'm saying, no, they're just more there.

    我們在第四季在中端市場看到的是決策延遲的情況。因此,銷售週期會更長。所以我們現在有更多正在進行的交易,對吧?去年這個時候,也就是進入財政年度的時候,他們還沒有完成結算。我的意思是,不,它們只是數量更多而已。

  • My sense of it is there's a lot of shopping going on. Again, let's go back, price sensitive market. People are going out and say, can I get a better deal somewhere else? Maybe they're not as happy with their current provider or where their current provider is heading from a technology roadmap perspective.

    我的感覺是,這裡購物活動非常熱鬧。讓我們再回到價格敏感型市場這個話題。人們會出去問:我能不能在別的地方找到更划算的交易?也許他們對目前的供應商不太滿意,或者對目前供應商的技術發展路線圖不太滿意。

  • And so they're wanting to engage Paychex even more. So the midmarket actually for the year was a very solid from a volume volumes perspective. Well, we did see in midmarket to get deals, more of the deals require discounting. So one of the things we look at is how -- what percentage of our deals do we have to give any discount to get? Believe it or not, there's a lot of deals that we don't have to give discounts to get.

    因此,他們希望與 Paychex 建立更緊密的合作關係。因此,從銷售角度來看,今年的中階市場表現非常穩健。我們發現,在中端市場,要達成交易,更多的交易需要打折。因此,我們需要考慮的問題之一是——我們需要在多少百分比的交易中給予折扣才能獲得折扣?信不信由你,有很多優惠活動我們不需要打折就能獲得。

  • And then second, what is the percentage of the amount of the discount when we do have to get it? And both of those were up a little bit. The other thing I would say in the midmarket to peel back even more is our average deal size was down. And this phenomenon actually occurred also in the PEO which was another site had went even given their great results.

    其次,當我們確實需要享受折扣時,折扣金額的百分比是多少?這兩項數據都略有上升。我想說的另一點是,在中端市場,需要進一步深入分析,那就是我們的平均交易規模有所下降。這種現像實際上也發生在 PEO,這是另一個即使取得了巨大成功也未能倖免的站點。

  • And that was in the higher end of the market, the higher end in the market, even less decision making and slower decision making. And so again, if you think about if your average average deal size goes from [75 to 72], that may not seem like much, but you spread that across our volume, those three extra or three less worksite employees or checks can add that to be significant.

    而且那還是在高端市場,高端市場,決策更少,決策速度更慢。所以,再想想,如果你的平均交易規模從 [75 到 72] 減少到 [72],這看起來似乎不多,但如果你把這分攤到我們的交易量上,那三個或三個額外的工地員工或支票的減少可能會產生顯著的影響。

  • So what we saw in the midmarket was good volume. There's good activity, good proposals, a little slower decision making. We have a good active pipeline. And what I would say, there's a segmentation from the upper end of that market to the lower end of the market, more buying in the lower end of the market than the upper end.

    所以我們在中端市場看到的是不錯的銷售量。市場活動活躍,提案也不錯,只是決策速度稍慢。我們擁有良好的在研產品線。我想說的是,這個市場從高端市場到低端市場有明顯的細分,低端市場的購買量比高端市場要多。

  • Does that give you some more color? Peter?

    這樣能讓你覺得顏色更鮮豔一點嗎?彼得?

  • Peter Christiansen - Analyst

    Peter Christiansen - Analyst

  • Absolutely, it does. It's fantastic color. But back on the discounts, I guess on an overall level, promotions, discounts, all that, would you say that that's rising?

    沒錯,確實如此。顏色真漂亮。但回到折扣的話題,我想從整體來看,促銷、折扣等等,您認為這些都在增加嗎?

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • No. It's stable. It's really stable.

    不。它很穩定。它非常穩定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ramsey El-Assal, Barclays.

    拉姆齊·埃爾-阿薩爾,巴克萊銀行。

  • Ramsey El-Assal - Analyst

    Ramsey El-Assal - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my question. Given the slower growth in Q1, can you help us think through the Q2 through Q4 cadence in terms of our models for management solutions? And also, if I could just tack on how much M&A contribution are you assuming in the full-year guidance? Thank you.

    您好,感謝您回答我的問題。鑑於第一季成長放緩,您能否幫助我們從管理解決方案模型的角度思考第二季到第四季的發展節奏?另外,能否請您補充一下,您在全年業績指引中預計併購將貢獻多少?謝謝。

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah, let me start with your second question first. And the answer to that is not. I mean, we did do a really small acquisition last year. There may be a few weeks of benefit, but it probably doesn't even run around to point one. So there's really no assumption around M&A in the model.

    好的,那我先回答你的第二個問題吧。答案是否定的。我的意思是,我們去年確實進行了一筆非常小的收購。可能會有幾週的益處,但可能連第一點都達不到。所以該模型中實際上並沒有關於併購的任何假設。

  • Ramsey, I don't necessarily want to get into the giving you quarterly guidance here. But what I will say is obviously, the ERTC headwind ramps down quarter to quarter as we go through the year. And so the revenue growth that we see in the model, both total revenue management solution is going to accelerate during the year quarter to quarter based on that ramp down.

    拉姆齊,我並不一定想在這裡給你季度業績指引。但我可以肯定地說,隨著時間的推移,ERTC 的阻力會逐季減弱。因此,根據這種逐步減少的情況,我們在模型中看到的營收成長,包括整體營收管理解決方案,將在今年內逐季加速成長。

  • When I just kind of take a step back and look at maybe first half back half, ex the ERTC, I'd say, right now, our thinking is the growth rates are similar front half, back half, maybe a little bit stronger but not materially different in the back half versus the front half. You saw we did that this year. We have plans in place that we're executing on.

    當我退後一步,看看前半年和後半年的情況,例如 ERTC,我會說,目前我們認為前後半年的增長率相似,後半年的增長率可能略高一些,但與前半年相比並沒有實質性的區別。你們也看到了,我們今年做到了。我們已經制定了計劃,並且正在執行。

  • But really the difference in the gating is primarily being driven by the ramp down of the ERTC quarter to quarter as we move through the year. Hey, we'll get through Q1. I'm trying to provide you guys some color on Q1. And just given the pluses and minuses over the last few years with ERTC, we're trying to help you get close to where you need to be for the next quarter but not necessarily get into a -- setting a precedent of giving exactly where we expect to be for each quarter. I'll provide another update when we get to the end of the Q1 and we have that call.

    但實際上,關卡設定上的差異主要源自於 ERTC 隨著時間的推移逐季逐步減少。嘿,我們肯定能撐過第一季。我想提供給大家一些關於第一季的具體資訊。鑑於過去幾年 ERTC 的利弊,我們正在努力幫助您接近下一季所需的目標,但不一定要開創先例,即每個季度都精確地達到我們預期的目標。等到第一季末我們召開電話會議時,我會再提供一份更新報告。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bryan Keane, Deutsche Bank.

    Bryan Keane,德意志銀行。

  • Bryan Keane - Analyst

    Bryan Keane - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning, guys and Bob, just a follow up on the one last processing day in the quarter, does that just automatically -- like there's a catch up in the second quarter so you'll see the boost that the processing day ends up adding to the second quarter? Is that how it works?

    嗨,各位早上好,還有鮑勃,關於季度末最後一個處理日的問題,是不是會自動處理——比如說,第二季度會進行補錄,這樣你就能看到處理日最終給第二季度帶來的增長?真是這樣嗎?

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Unfortunately not. I mean, sometimes it does, Bryan. Sometimes it balances out in the quarter. Sometimes it balances out in the year. This day we actually -- this year, just the way the calendar falls, we actually lose the day. But the impact that growth on a full-year basis is minimal, but it impacts the quarter. So I wish I could get it back in the next quarter, but I don't -- but the full-year impact is minimal.

    很遺憾,並非如此。我的意思是,有時候確實如此,布萊恩。有時季度內會達到平衡。有時一年下來會達到平衡。今年,由於日曆的緣故,我們實際上錯過了這一天。但這種成長對全年業績的影響微乎其微,卻會對季度業績產生影響。所以我希望能在下一季把它找回來,但可惜不行——不過對全年的影響微乎其微。

  • Bryan Keane - Analyst

    Bryan Keane - Analyst

  • Okay. And then and then just, on the operating margin component in itself, it starts lower in the first quarter and then it ramps pretty significantly. Is there is there cost actions that are doing that? Or is that part of the processing, the less processing day that comes back or just trying to think about the pickup in operating margin?

    好的。然後,就營業利潤率本身而言,第一季開始較低,然後大幅成長。是否存在能夠實現這一目標的成本控制措施?或者,這是處理過程的一部分嗎?處理時間越短,回傳的資料就越少,或只是在考慮營業利益率的提升?

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah, there's the less processing day. There's the ERTC headwind. That again, that the headwind gets smaller as you move through the year. That's high margin. So that's going to have an impact. And then just in general, when you look at our margins, they're typically stronger in the back half, in the first half. And that's because of some of the way we recognize revenue or around some of the year end processing stuff in Q3, which is also very high margin.

    是的,還有處理量較少的一天。ERTC面臨逆風。也就是說,隨著時間的推移,逆風會越來越小。利潤率很高。所以這肯定會產生影響。總的來說,從我們的利潤率來看,通常在下半年比上半年更強。這是因為我們確認收入的方式,或是第三季的一些年末處理事項,而這些事項的利潤率也非常高。

  • So historically, if you go back and look at our margins by quarter, you're going to see that the Q3 in the back half are typically a little bit higher. So you know that that those are the big differences.

    因此,從歷史數據來看,如果你回顧我們各季度的利潤率,你會發現下半年的第三季通常會略高一些。所以你知道,這些就是主要區別。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Togut, EVERCORE ISI.

    David Togut,EVERCORE ISI。

  • David Togut - Analyst

    David Togut - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. Could you quantify the 2025 revenue or cost benefits from implementing a gen AI? You called out use of gen AI and prospecting. And I'm curious if you could go a little deeper into how you implement that in the business and what the financial benefits are.

    非常感謝。您能否量化實施一代人工智慧在 2025 年帶來的收入或成本效益?你提到了人工智慧和潛在客戶開發的應用。我很想知道您能否更深入地談談您如何在業務中實施這一點,以及由此帶來的經濟效益。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yeah, I really can't -- I really can't quantify it outside of just looking at how we've historically improved our operating performance without increasing our costs, actually decreasing our cost is the way I look at it. So whether that's in the sales area where I look at how it's been used to increase prospecting, how we've used it to drive rep productivity. I look at it in the service area in terms of what we're doing from a retention perspective.

    是的,我真的無法——我真的無法量化它,只能看看我們是如何在過去不增加成本的情況下提高營運績效的,實際上,在我看來,我們降低了成本。所以,無論是在銷售領域,我都會關注它如何被用來增加潛在客戶,以及我們如何利用它來提高銷售代表的效率。我從服務領域的角度來看這個問題,也就是從顧客留存的角度來看我們正在做的事情。

  • I mean, the biggest, probably benefit that we see from it quite frankly is in this pricing and price realization area where we can, in real time, do a lot of analysis around price realization and price sensitivity at the client level so that as we're both proposing to a prospect as well as looking at the roll downs of discounts of prospects as they become clients and now their discount is rolling down, how much of that can we get back. We've gotten very sophisticated in understanding what their service experience has been, what their utilization of our product and technology has been.

    我的意思是,坦白說,我們從中看到的最大好處可能是在定價和價格實現方面,我們可以實時地對客戶層面的價格實現和價格敏感度進行大量分析,這樣,當我們向潛在客戶提出方案,以及觀察潛在客戶成為客戶後折扣的遞減情況(現在他們的折扣正在遞減),我們就能收回多少成本。我們已經非常深入地了解他們的服務體驗,以及他們如何使用我們的產品和技術。

  • And we know those are predictable factors in understanding the value they're seeing us providing and where we're having the most value being delivered to a client. As you can imagine, we can realize more price appreciation as we benefit them over the lifetime of the client. So nothing specific that I could really pull out, but I can certainly tell you that across the board, if I went and told my team, I was going to turn off AI and that kind of things, they would not be happy about keeping their commitments.

    我們知道,這些都是可以預測的因素,可以幫助我們理解客戶認為我們提供的價值,以及我們在哪些方面為客戶創造了最大的價值。您可以想像,如果我們在客戶的整個生命週期中為他們帶來利益,我們就能實現更大的價格升值。所以沒有什麼具體的例子可以拿出來,但我可以肯定地告訴你,總的來說,如果我告訴我的團隊,我要關閉人工智慧之類的東西,他們肯定不會樂意履行他們的承諾。

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yeah. Yeah. I'd say another example, and it kind of tagged along to a question that was asked earlier about the PEO performance.

    是的。是的。我再舉一個例子,這其實與先前提出的關於 PEO 績效的問題有關。

  • Another example where we've leveraged these technologies is in the PEO business. I mean, we talked to you guys about this in the beginning of the year. That was one of our strategies to reaccelerate growth in the business. We had really strong year last year with ASO, and we knew that we were going to be able to leverage our data and AI models to really go back into that customer base, identify those prospects that were good clients for the PEO model, and really go back in and upgrade them to PEO and be able to do that in a productive and efficient way with low customer acquisition costs.

    我們利用這些技術的另一個例子是在 PEO 業務中。我的意思是,我們在年初的時候就和你們談過這個問題。這是我們重振業務成長的策略之一。去年我們在應用程式商店優化 (ASO) 方面取得了非常強勁的成績,我們知道我們將能夠利用我們的數據和人工智慧模型,真正地回到客戶群中,識別出那些適合 PEO 模式的潛在客戶,並真​​正地回去將他們升級到 PEO,並且能夠以高效的方式、較低的客戶獲取成本來實現這一點。

  • And that is one of many things that we did to really improve the PEO performance this year. But I think that is a great example on the real benefit it's having in our business model.

    這是我們今年為真正提高 PEO 績效所採取的眾多措施之一。但我認為這很好地體現了它為我們的商業模式帶來的真正好處。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • I go back again, I guess we pull ERTC. Without the models that we had from an AI perspective, ERTC would have been a very difficult and manual calculation that we would have had to have done relative to the parameters. And all of that was really done through a data and AI model that was generating reports. And basically, the client was giving us a couple of the missing data points that we needed to be able to complete the application and complete the processing.

    我再回去一次,我想我們得撤回ERTC。如果沒有我們從人工智慧角度擁有的模型,ERTC 將是一個非常困難且需要人工計算的參數計算。而這一切其實都是透過一個產生報告的數據和人工智慧模型來實現的。基本上,客戶向我們提供了一些缺失的數據點,我們需要這些數據點才能完成申請和處理。

  • So if we would have -- and I think some providers actually, moved away from wanting to even offer ERTC because they looked at it as very complicated, very labor intensive type of effort. We know a lot of our CPA partners did not want to touch it at all. And really, as Bob said, it's highly profitable because that was really built off of an AI and data model that we built and automated that entire process.

    所以如果我們曾經——而且我認為一些供應商實際上已經放棄了提供 ERTC 的想法,因為他們認為這是一種非常複雜、非常勞動密集的工作。我們知道很多註冊會計師夥伴根本不想碰它。正如鮑勃所說,這確實非常有利可圖,因為它是建立在我們構建的人工智慧和資料模型之上的,並且實現了整個過程的自動化。

  • David Togut - Analyst

    David Togut - Analyst

  • Just following up on your points around service, are you able to use gen AI a lot to create more automated chat and reduce the labor intensity of servicing the client?

    關於您提到的服務方面,我想問您是否能夠大量使用人工智慧來創建更多自動化聊天功能,從而降低客戶服務的勞動強度?

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yes. And I would say even more to come as we have now began to digitize our entire -- from prospect to servicing all of our interactions with our clients. In 2023, we captured 158 years of call interactions. Now, that means, we took the calls, they were recorded, they were transcribed. They are now sitting in a data model where we can use that to do.

    是的。而且我認為未來還會有更多,因為我們現在已經開始將我們與客戶的所有互動——從潛在客戶開發到客戶服務——全部數位化。2023年,我們收集了158年的通話互動數據。這意味著,我們接聽了電話,電話內容被錄音,通話內容被轉錄。它們現在儲存在一個資料模型中,我們可以利用這些資料模型來實現某些功能。

  • And then another 250 years of calls in electronic communications between chat and emails that we have between the clients. And all of that data is being used to analyze what are our clients asking us, why are they asking us and how do we avoid them needing to ask us those questions to start with. So if you do that math there, that's the scale of the data set that we generated in one year by digitizing and leveraging data and AI in our service area, that service alone.

    然後,在過去的 250 年裡,我們與客戶之間透過聊天和電子郵件等電子通訊方式進行了通話。所有這些數據都被用來分析我們的客戶在問我們什麼,為什麼問我們這些問題,以及我們如何從一開始就避免他們需要問我們這些問題。所以,如果你計算一下,這就是我們僅在服務區域內,透過數位化和利用資料及人工智慧,一年內產生的資料集規模。

  • By the way, that doesn't include the millions of SMB companies that we engage in our prospecting and sales process through the years.

    順便說一句,這還不包括我們多年來在客戶開發和銷售過程中接觸的數百萬家中小企業。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kartik Mehta, Northcoast Research.

    Kartik Mehta,北海岸研究公司。

  • Kartik Mehta - Analyst

    Kartik Mehta - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, John and Bob. If we took a step back at FY25 and looked at the growth model for the company. I always used to think about net client growth, pace for control price, and then ancillary sales. And on those factors, would you say price is more historical or are we still at a point where you're getting a little bit better price? And then I'm assuming the pace for control, since they've been so strong, are likely flat. So if you kind of look at that growth model, how would you say things are different than historical?

    嘿,約翰和鮑勃,早安。如果我們回顧一下 2025 財年,看看公司的成長模式。我過去總是考慮淨客戶成長、控制價格的速度,以及輔助銷售。基於這些因素,您認為價格更接近歷史水平,還是我們仍然處於一個價格略微優惠的階段?然後我假設,由於他們一直表現強勁,控制權的競爭速度可能會保持穩定。那麼,如果你仔細研究這個成長模型,你認為現在的情況與歷史狀況有何不同?

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • I'd say they're similar to historical, Kartik. I mean, if you were to kind of break down the components of it and look at the guide ex-ERTC, we've talked about pricing has been a little bit higher the last couple of years. I'd say that's getting back in our expectation is that gets back more towards normal levels. The checks for client -- and that's been an up and down thing over the last couple of years. And right now in the plan, we're not really assuming a lot of growth.

    我覺得它們和歷史上的事物很相似,卡爾蒂克。我的意思是,如果你把它分解成各個組成部分,看看 ERTC 之前的指南,我們已經討論過,過去幾年價格一直偏高。我認為,這就是我們預期的情況,即逐漸恢復到正常水平。對客戶的檢查—這在過去幾年一直起伏不定。而就目前的計劃而言,我們並沒有真正假設會有很大的成長。

  • We really have that flattish. And then when you look at maybe some of the larger client size, what we refer to kind of change in base in our HR outsourcing models, we typically see growth there. We had a couple of challenging quarters this year. John mentioned it. We actually saw that turn around a little bit in Q4. Hopefully, that continues.

    我們這裡地勢確實比較平坦。然後,當你觀察一些規模較大的客戶時,我們會發現,在我們的人力資源外包模式中,客戶基礎發生了某種變化,我們通常會看到成長。今年我們經歷了幾個充滿挑戰的季度。約翰提到了這件事。實際上,我們在第四季度看到這種情況有所改善。希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

  • We have a little bit of growth assumed there. I'd say it's probably we're a little cautious there given the macro uncertainty and maybe have dialed that back a little bit relative to where it's been historically. But right now we're not expecting a big impact, positive or negative what's assumed in the plan as it relates to macro and employment in those type of things.

    我們假設那裡會有一些成長。鑑於宏觀經濟的不確定性,我認為我們可能在這方面比較謹慎,並且相對於歷史上的水平,我們可能已經稍微收斂了一些。但就目前而言,我們預計該計劃對宏觀經濟和就業等方面的影響不會很大,無論是積極的還是消極的。

  • So I think our growth formula is strong and what's assumed in the plan next year is in line with where it's been historically.

    所以我認為我們的成長模式很強勁,明年的計畫假設與歷史水準一致。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Yeah, Karthik, I think we talk a lot about what do you realize from client based growth? What do you realize from price? Remember, we got a pretty broad growth formula. And when you look at product penetration, that's been an area that's been historically very strong. And I would say that accelerated during the pandemic.

    是的,Karthik,我覺得我們經常討論從客戶成長中你能獲得什麼?你從價格中能獲得什麼?記住,我們得到的是一個相當廣泛的成長公式。從產品滲透率來看,這始終是一個非常強勁的領域。而且我認為,疫情期間這種情況加速發展。

  • So if I look pre-pandemic to post pandemic and say what changed, we're exiting the pandemic and entering the post-pandemic era in a stronger position as a company. And we're more profitable. I think we're more agile. We have a stronger value proposition instead of solutions. I think we've established ourselves as a trusted advisor with our clients. I mean, we got over three -- we had over $90 billion of money in our client's hand from ERTC and PPP.

    所以,如果我回顧疫情前和疫情後,看看發生了哪些變化,我們會發現,作為一家公司,我們正以更強大的姿態走出疫情,進入後疫情時代。而且我們獲利能力更強。我認為我們更靈活。我們提供的價值主張比解決方案更有力。我認為我們已經建立了客戶信任的顧問形象。我的意思是,我們從 ERTC 和 PPP 中獲得了超過 900 億美元的資金,這些資金已經到了我們客戶的手中。

  • And so that built up a lot of goodwill. So when I look at what we can do from an insurance penetration, what we're seeing in the PEO, remember we sell the PEO both inside the base and outside the base. And we're seeing both of those accelerate. We're seeing our HR outsourcing inside the base. We're seeing 401(k) inside the base accelerating.

    因此,這累積了許多好感。所以,當我審視保險滲透率方面我們能做些什麼時,以及我們在 PEO 中看到的情況時,請記住,我們既向基地內部銷售 PEO,也向基地外部銷售 PEO。我們看到這兩個趨勢都在加速發展。我們看到基地內部出現了人力資源外包的情況。我們看到 401(k) 基金在基地內加速成長。

  • So that product penetration is something that sometimes gets left out. And that's also a key part of our growth formula as a company and has been for, as you know, for 50 years.

    因此,產品滲透率有時會被忽略。這也是我們公司發展策略的關鍵組成部分,正如您所知,50年來一直如此。

  • Kartik Mehta - Analyst

    Kartik Mehta - Analyst

  • Yeah. And John, just the last question, just on acquisitions, you mentioned earlier in the call the ability to provide clients with access to capital. I'm wondering, as you look at maybe acquisitions, is the thought that you'd want to continue building on that? Or would the strategy be to acquire other types of companies?

    是的。約翰,最後一個問題,關於收購,你之前在電話會議中提到能夠為客戶提供資金。我想知道,當您考慮收購時,您是否希望繼續在此基礎上發展壯大?或者,該策略會是收購其他類型的公司嗎?

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Well, I, let me talk about, let me talk about, you know, M&A in general, I would say another part of our growth formula has been historically M&A as well. And that would be one that we've continually looked at. I would tell you that I do find the market getting back to more rational valuations both directly in our space. And then at the adjacencies that we have been looking at historically, where I think there was a lot of inflation, as I see those go back, we're going to continue to -- very active in that market.

    嗯,讓我談談,讓我談談,你知道,關於併購,我認為併購歷來也是我們成長模式的一部分。而這正是我們一直在關注的問題之一。我想說的是,我發現市場正在回歸更理性的估值,無論是在我們這個領域還是其他方面。然後,在我們一直以來關注的鄰近地區,我認為那裡通貨膨脹很嚴重,隨著這些地區回暖,我們將繼續——非常積極地參與市場。

  • Specifically in the area you're asking the question, we're more interested in expanding our partnerships with fintechs and other companies digitally so that as the client comes in to run their pay -- remember for most small business owners, the biggest check they're going to write every month is their payroll. And so that's a source that if we can provide them alternatives to float some of that, or get a loan if they need to repair a truck or something like that in their business.

    具體來說,在您提出的問題領域,我們更有興趣擴大與金融科技公司和其他公司的數位化合作關係,以便客戶在處理薪資時——請記住,對於大多數小型企業主來說,他們每個月開出的最大支票就是薪資支票。所以,如果我們能為他們提供一些替代方案來籌集部分資金,或者在他們需要修理卡車或進行其他業務相關維修時提供貸款,那麼這就是一個資金來源。

  • So what we're trying to do is build more partnerships there so that we can actually give them access to capital at the point of funding their payroll.

    因此,我們正在努力建立更多的合作夥伴關係,以便我們能夠在他們支付工資時真正為他們提供資金。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.

    Scott Wurtzel,Wolfe Research。

  • Scott Wurtzel - Analyst

    Scott Wurtzel - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning guys. And thanks for squeezing me in. Just wanted to go back quickly to the cost optimization charges and wondering if you can maybe provide a split out between the real estate optimization, the shifting of technology investments and the headcount actions would be appreciated. And then also are you expecting any incremental charges related to these fiscal '25 as well?

    嘿,各位早安。謝謝你擠出時間陪我。我只想快速地回到成本優化費用的問題上,不知道您能否將房地產優化、技術投資轉移和人員調整等方面的費用分開列出,這將不勝感激。另外,您是否預計在 2025 財年還會產生任何額外費用?

  • Robert Schrader - Vice President

    Robert Schrader - Vice President

  • Yup. So the answer to the second question is no Scott, I think we have all that behind us. You know, it's $30 million. I'd say roughly 20% of that is probably headcount related. And then the balance from there is probably split roughly half between the real estate assets and the technology assets. There'll be some more disclosures when you see our 10-K in a couple of weeks around that. But that's the rough breakdown of those costs.

    是的。所以第二個問題的答案是:不,史考特,我想我們已經把那些都拋在腦後了。你知道,這可是3000萬美元。我認為其中大約 20% 可能與人員配置有關。然後,剩餘的資金大概一半用於房地產資產,一半用於技術資產。幾週後,當您看到我們的 10-K 表格時,會有更多資訊揭露。但這就是這些成本的大致組成。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes. That concludes our question-and-answer period. I would like to turn the call back over to John Gibson for closing remarks.

    是的。我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將電話交還給約翰·吉布森,請他作總結發言。

  • John Gibson - President

    John Gibson - President

  • Okay. Thank you, Madison. At this point, as we close the call, if you're interested in a replay of the webcast, it will be archived for approximately 90 days. Again, I want to continue to thank each and every one of you for your interest in Paychex. And I hope everybody has a great day and a great Fourth of July. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝你,麥迪遜。通話即將結束,如果您對網路直播的回放感興趣,它將存檔約 90 天。再次感謝各位對 Paychex 的關注。我希望大家都能度過美好的一天,並擁有一個美好的七月四日。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That concludes today's fourth-quarter 2024 Paychex's earnings conference call. You may now disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.

    謝謝。今天的 Paychex 2024 年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了,祝您有美好的一天。