恩智浦 (NXPI) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NXP Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加恩智浦 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Jeff Palmer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給您的發言人、投資者關係高級副總裁傑夫·帕爾默 (Jeff Palmer)。請繼續。

Thank you, Shannon, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to NXP Semiconductors Third Quarter Earnings Call. With me on the call today is Kurt Sievers, NXP's President and CEO; and Bill Betz, our CFO; the call today is being recorded will be available for replay from our corporate website.

謝謝香農，大家早安。歡迎參加恩智浦半導體第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是恩智浦總裁兼執行長 Kurt Sievers。和我們的財務長比爾貝茨 (Bill Betz)；今天的通話錄音將在我們的公司網站上進行重播。

Today's call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the macroeconomic impact on specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products and our expectations for the financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023.

今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致恩智浦的表現與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於有關我們經營的特定終端市場的宏觀經濟影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們對 2023 年第四季度財務業績的預期的聲明。

Please be reminded that NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements. For a full disclosure on forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release. Additionally, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are driven primarily by discrete events that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance.

請注意，恩智浦不承擔公開修改或更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。有關前瞻性陳述的完整揭露，請參閱我們的新聞稿。此外，我們將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標，這些指標主要由管理階層認為與恩智浦基本核心營運績效不直接相關的離散事件所驅動。

Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our third quarter 2023 earnings press release, which will be furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K and available on the NXP's website in the Investor Relations section at nxp.com.

根據G 條例，恩智浦在2023 年第三季財報新聞稿中提供了非GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的GAAP 指標的調節表，該新聞稿將透過8-K 表格提交給SEC，並可在恩智浦網站上取得在 nxp.com 的投資者關係部分。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Kurt.

現在我想把電話轉給庫爾特。

Thank you very much, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today. I will start with a review of our quarter 3 results, discuss our guidance for quarter 4 and provide our early views of 2024. Now let me begin with quarter 3. NXP delivered quarterly revenue of $3.43 billion $34 million above the midpoint of guidance and essentially flat year-on-year. Revenue trends in our mobile, industrial and IoT and automotive end markets all performed in line or better than anticipated, while our communication infrastructure and other end markets was slightly below our expectations. Our distribution channel inventory during the third quarter declined slightly to a 1.5 month level, well below our long-term target of 2.5 months.

非常感謝你，傑夫，大家早安。我們感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我將首先回顧我們第三季度的業績，討論我們對第四季度的指導，並提供我們對2024 年的早期看法。現在讓我從第三季度開始。恩智浦的季度收入為34.3 億美元，比指導中點高出3,400 萬美元，基本上與去年同期持平。我們的行動、工業、物聯網和汽車終端市場的收入趨勢均符合或優於預期，而我們的通訊基礎設施和其他終端市場略低於我們的預期。第三季我們的通路庫存小幅下降至 1.5 個月的水平，遠低於我們 2.5 個月的長期目標。

Non-GAAP operating margin in quarter 3 was 35%, 30 basis points below the midpoint of our guidance. This is primarily due to an unforecasted potential legal liability of approximately $14 million, which is reflected in SG&A. Non-GAAP operating margin was down 190 basis points versus the year ago period, primarily as a result of higher R&D investments and the noted potential legal expense. Now let me turn to the specific trends in our focus end markets.

第三季的非 GAAP 營運利潤率為 35%，比我們指引的中點低 30 個基點。這主要是由於未預見的潛在法律責任約為 1,400 萬美元，這已反映在 SG&A 中。非 GAAP 營運利潤率較上年同期下降 190 個基點，主要是由於研發投資增加以及注意到的潛在法律費用。現在讓我談談我們重點終端市場的具體趨勢。

In Automotive, quarter 3 revenue was $1.89 billion, up 5% versus the year ago period and in line with the midpoint of our guidance. In Industrial and IoT, quarter 3 revenue was $607 million, down 15% versus the year ago period, so above the midpoint of our guidance. In Mobile, quarter 3 revenue was $377 million, down 8% versus the year ago period and above the high end of our guidance. In Communication Infrastructure and Other, quarter 3 revenue was $559 million, up 8% year-on-year, so slightly below the midpoint of our guidance.

在汽車領域，第三季營收為 18.9 億美元，比去年同期成長 5%，符合我們指引的中位數。在工業和物聯網領域，第三季營收為 6.07 億美元，比去年同期下降 15%，高於我們指引值的中點。在行動領域，第三季營收為 3.77 億美元，比去年同期下降 8%，高於我們指引的上限。在通訊基礎設施及其他領域，第三季營收為 5.59 億美元，年增 8%，略低於我們指引的中點。

During the third quarter, from a geographic perspective, we experienced incremental improvement across most regions, with China solidly improving quarter-over-quarter. So our shift to rates to China are still down versus the year ago period. From a channel perspective, sequential growth was led by improved sell-through in our distribution business. At the same time, our direct business sequentially declined a reflection of NXP actively managing inventory digestion at our direct customers. Overall, our distribution business represented 57% of sales, up from 51% in the second quarter.

第三季度，從地理角度來看，我們在大多數地區都經歷了逐步改善，其中中國環比穩步改善。因此，我們轉向中國的利率仍低於去年同期。從通路角度來看，連續成長是由我們分銷業務的銷售量改善所帶動的。同時，我們的直接業務連續下降，反映出恩智浦積極管理直接客戶的庫存消化。整體而言，我們的分銷業務佔銷售額的 57%，高於第二季的 51%。

And now I will turn to our expectations for quarter 4, 2023. We are guiding quarter 4 revenue to $3.4 billion. This is about 3% versus the year ago period up and represents a sequential decline of approximately 1% at the midpoint. We anticipate the following trends in our business. Automotive is expected to be up in the mid-single-digit percent range versus quarter 4, 2022 and flattish sequentially. Industrial and IoT is expected to be up in the high single digits on a percentage basis versus both quarter 4, 2022 and quarter 3, 2023. Mobile is expected to be down in the mid-single-digit percent range versus quarter 4, 2022 and up in the low single-digit range on a sequential basis.

現在我將談談我們對 2023 年第 4 季的預期。我們預計第 4 季的營收將達到 34 億美元。與去年同期相比增加了約 3%，環比中點下降了約 1%。我們預計我們的業務將出現以下趨勢。與 2022 年第四季相比，汽車產業預計將出現中等個位數百分比成長，與上一季持平。與2022 年第四季和2023 年第三季相比，工業和物聯網預計將出現高個位數百分比成長。與2022 年第四季和2023 年第三季相比，行動預計將在中個位數百分比範圍內下降。環比上昇在低個位數範圍內。

And finally, Communication Infrastructure and Other is expected to be down mid-single digits on a percentage basis versus quarter 4, 2022 and down in the upper teens percent sequentially. Our guidance for quarter 4 contemplates ending the fourth quarter at 1.6 months of distribution channel inventory. Zooming out, the combination of our third quarter results and the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance indicates the full year 2023 revenue will be flattish versus 2022 in a challenging and cyclical market environment. When we now turn to our early views on 2024, we continue to see an operating environment with a number of cross currents.

最後，與 2022 年第四季相比，通訊基礎設施和其他業務預計將下降中個位數百分比，並連續下降百分之十以上。我們對第四季度的指導預計第四季結束時分銷通路庫存為 1.6 個月。縮小範圍來看，我們第三季的業績和第四季度指導的中點相結合表明，在充滿挑戰和週期性的市場環境中，2023 年全年收入將與 2022 年持平。當我們現在轉向對 2024 年的早期看法時，我們仍然看到一個存在許多矛盾的營運環境。

Clearly, the macro environment remains weak, including subdued demand in China, geopolitical challenges and elevated inflation, which is constraining demand. At the company level, lead times have normalized, and we anticipate a more neutral pricing environment going forward. And already, since early this year, we have actively engaged with our large direct customers to drive a reduction in on-hand inventory where needed, rather than just blindly enforcing NCNR commitments. Furthermore, we have demonstrated over several quarters, proactive management of our distribution channel, resulting in a very lean channel inventory position of 1.5 months at the end of quarter 3 versus our long-term target of 2.5 months.

顯然，宏觀環境仍然疲軟，包括中國需求疲軟、地緣政治挑戰和通膨上升，這些都限制了需求。在公司層面，交貨時間已經正常化，我們預期未來的定價環境將更加中性。自今年年初以來，我們已經積極與大型直接客戶合作，在需要時推動減少現有庫存，而不是盲目執行 NCNR 承諾。此外，我們在幾個季度中展示了對分銷管道的主動管理，導致第三季末通路庫存狀況非常精簡，為 1.5 個月，而我們的長期目標為 2.5 個月。

Through all of these proactive actions, we believe we will enter 2024 with a comparatively balanced customer inventory position with some remaining pockets of inventory digestion yet to occur. Hence, we will also begin to replenish the channel sometime in 2024. In terms of NXP's focus end markets for 2024, we are assuming global auto production to be up 1% as anticipated by NXP. We assume the mix shift towards semiconductor content rich, hybrid and battery electric vehicles continues and reaches about 40% of all cars produced in '24, up from 33% in 2023. This is very supportive of the NXP-specific secure content drivers, such as radar systems, electrification solutions and high-performance processes for software-defined vehicles.

透過所有這些積極行動，我們相信進入 2024 年時，我們的客戶庫存狀況將相對平衡，一些剩餘的庫存消化尚未發生。因此，我們也將在 2024 年的某個時候開始補充管道。就恩智浦 2024 年的重點終端市場而言，我們假設全球汽車產量將增加 1%，正如恩智浦所預期的那樣。我們假設向半導體含量豐富、混合動力和電池電動車的混合轉變將持續下去，並達到2024 年生產的所有汽車的40% 左右，高於2023 年的33%。這非常支持恩智浦特定的安全內容驅動程序，例如例如雷達系統、電氣化解決方案和軟體定義車輛的高性能流程。

Turning to core Industrial. We see the trends, including especially content growth to be pretty similar to Automotive. In our Consumer IoT and Mobile business, after over a year of weak demand, we see an incrementally improving environment. Finally, we do believe the weak demand in Communication Infrastructure and Other likely continues as we have associated to pent-up demand in our secured cards business, anticipated a weak environment in mobile base station build-outs and expect end of life in some of our network edge products.

轉向核心工業。我們看到趨勢，尤其是內容成長與汽車產業非常相似。在我們的消費者物聯網和行動業務中，經過一年多的需求疲軟，我們看到環境正在逐步改善。最後，我們確實相信通訊基礎設施和其他領域的需求疲軟可能會持續下去，因為我們與安全卡​​業務中被壓抑的需求相關聯，預計行動基地台建設的環境疲軟，並預計我們的一些業務將結束生命.網路邊緣產品。

When putting it all together, netting the positives against the loan headwinds, we continue to navigate a soft landing for the business and anticipate a return to year-on-year revenue growth throughout 2024. For the first quarter, we expect seasonality to return more to the typical pre-COVID seasonal panels in a range of down mid- to upper-single digits sequentially. And now I would like to pass the call to you, Bill, for a review of our financial performance.

綜上所述，我們將繼續推動業務軟著陸，並預計 2024 年收入將恢復同比增長。對於第一季度，我們預計季節性因素將帶來更多回報與典型的新冠疫情前季節性面板相比，其範圍依序下降到中位數到高個位數。現在我想把電話轉給你，比爾，請你審查我們的財務表現。

Well, thank you, Kurt, and good morning to everyone on today's call. As Kurt has already covered the drivers of the revenue during Q3 and provided the revenue outlook for Q4, I will move to the financial highlights.

好的，謝謝你，庫爾特，今天電話會議的大家早安。由於庫爾特已經介紹了第三季收入的驅動因素並提供了第四季度的收入前景，因此我將轉向財務要點。

Overall, our Q3 financial performance was good. Revenue and non-GAAP gross profit were modestly above the midpoint of guidance, with solid gross profit fall through. Now moving to the details of Q3. Total revenue was $3.4 billion, $34 million above the midpoint of the guidance and essentially flat year-on-year. We generated $2.01 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 58.5% up 50 basis points year-on-year and 10 basis points above the midpoint of the guidance range, driven by the fall-through on higher revenues.

整體而言，我們第三季的財務表現良好。收入和非公認會計準則毛利略高於指導中點，但毛利卻出現了大幅下滑。現在轉向第三季的細節。總收入為 34 億美元，比指導中位數高出 3,400 萬美元，與去年同期基本持平。我們的非 GAAP 毛利為 20.1 億美元，非 GAAP 毛利率為 58.5%，年增 50 個基點，比指導範圍中點高出 10 個基點，這是由於收入。

Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $803 million or 23.4% of revenue, up $73 million year-on-year and up $32 million from Q2. When compared to the midpoint of guidance, this is a miss of $18 million, where $14 million is due to our potential unforecasted legal liability and the remainder from higher variable compensation. From a total operating profit perspectives, non-GAAP operating profit was $1.2 billion, and non-GAAP operating margin was 35%. This was down 190 basis points year-on-year and slightly below the midpoint of the guidance range due to the previously noted potential legal liability, which created a 40 basis point headwind to non-GAAP operating margin.

非 GAAP 營運支出總額為 8.03 億美元，佔營收的 23.4%，較去年同期增加 7,300 萬美元，比第二季增加 3,200 萬美元。與指導中位數相比，這存在 1800 萬美元的偏差，其中 1400 萬美元是由於我們潛在的不可預見的法律責任造成的，其餘的則來自較高的可變薪酬。從總營業利潤來看，非 GAAP 營業利潤為 12 億美元，非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 35%。由於先前提到的潛在法律責任，該數字同比下降 190 個基點，略低於指導範圍的中點，這對非 GAAP 營業利潤率造成了 40 個基點的阻力。

Non-GAAP interest expense was $65 million, with non-GAAP income tax provision of $168 million, reflecting a non-GAAP effective tax rate of 14.8%, which is favorable versus our guidance range of 16% to 17%. Noncontrolling interest was $5 million and stock-based compensation, which is not included in the non-GAAP earnings, was $103 million. Changing together, this resulted in a non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.70, $0.10 above the midpoint of the guidance. Now turning to the changes in our cash and debt. Total debt at the end of Q3 was $11.17 billion, flat sequentially. The ending cash position was $4.04 billion, up $179 million sequentially due to the cumulative affected capital returns improved working capital metrics, flat CapEx investments and positive cash generation during Q3.

非 GAAP 利息支出為 6,500 萬美元，非 GAAP 所得稅撥備為 1.68 億美元，反映非 GAAP 有效稅率為 14.8%，這比我們 16% 至 17% 的指導範圍有利。非控制權益為 500 萬美元，股票薪酬（不包括在非公認會計原則收益中）為 1.03 億美元。綜合起來，非 GAAP 每股收益為 3.70 美元，比指導中位數高出 0.10 美元。現在轉向我們的現金和債務的變化。第三季末總負債為 111.7 億美元，與上一季持平。期末現金部位為 40.4 億美元，比上一季增加 1.79 億美元，原因是受累積影響的資本回報改善了營運資本指標、資本支出投資持平以及第三季的正現金產生。

The resulting net debt was $7.13 billion and we exited the quarter with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $5.38 billion. The ratio of net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at the end of Q3 was 1.3x and the 12-month adjusted EBITDA interest coverage ratio was 19.9x. During Q3, we repurchased $306 million of our shares and paid $262 million in cash dividends. Taken together, we returned $568 million to our owners in the quarter, which represented 72% of non-GAAP free cash flow and 81% on a trailing 12-month period. Furthermore, subsequent to the end of Q3, we continue to execute our share repurchase program, buying an incremental $124 million or approximately 658,000 shares through Friday, November 3.

由此產生的淨債務為 71.3 億美元，本季結束時，過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 為 53.8 億美元。第三季末淨負債與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.3 倍，12 個月調整後 EBITDA 利息保障倍數為 19.9 倍。第三季度，我們回購了 3.06 億美元的股票，並支付了 2.62 億美元的現金股利。總的來說，我們在本季向股東返還了 5.68 億美元，佔非 GAAP 自由現金流的 72%，佔過去 12 個月期間的 81%。此外，在第三季末後，我們繼續執行股票回購計劃，截至 11 月 3 日星期五，增量購買了 1.24 億美元，約 658,000 股股票。

Now turning to working capital metrics. Days of inventory was 134 days, a decrease of 3 days sequentially and distribution channel inventory was 1.5 months or approximately 45 days, down about 4 days from the second quarter. When combined, this represents approximately 179 days or a 7-day decline from the prior quarter. We continue to be laser focused on tightly controlling our channel inventory levels, while leveraging our balance sheet strength to whole product in die form for quick turnaround as demand materializes. Days receivable were 25 days, down 4 days sequentially and days payable were 60 days, a sequential decrease of 3 days. Taken together, the cash conversion cycle was 99 days, an improvement of 4 days versus the prior quarter.

現在轉向營運資本指標。庫存天數為134天，較上一季減少3天，經銷通路庫存為1.5個月或約45天，較第二季減少約4天。合計起來，這意味著大約 179 天，或比上一季減少了 7 天。我們繼續專注於嚴格控制我們的通路庫存水平，同時利用我們的資產負債表實力以模具形式生產整個產品，以便在需求實現時快速週轉。應收帳款天數為25天，月減4天；應付帳款天數為60天，季減3天。總而言之，現金週轉週期為 99 天，比上一季縮短了 4 天。

Cash flow from operations was $988 million and net CapEx was $200 million or approximately 6% of revenue, slightly better than our guidance of 7% resulting in non-GAAP free cash flow of $788 million or 23% of Q3 revenue, which is up from 17% in the prior quarter. On a trailing 12-month basis, this represents a 20% non-GAAP free cash flow margin.

營運現金流為9.88 億美元，淨資本支出為2 億美元，約佔營收的6%，略高於我們7% 的指引，導致非GAAP 自由現金流為7.88 億美元，佔第三季營收的23 %，高於上一季成長 17%。以過去 12 個月為基礎，這相當於 20% 的非 GAAP 自由現金流利潤率。

Overall, we continue to be focused on driving non-GAAP free cash flow margin to greater than 25%, a level we have demonstrated in the past and a level we believe we can achieve in the future. Turning now to our expectations for the fourth quarter. As Kurt mentioned, we anticipate Q4 revenue to be $3.4 billion, plus or minus $100 million. At the midpoint of our revenue outlook, this is up about 3% year-on-year and down about 1% versus Q3.

總體而言，我們繼續致力於將非 GAAP 自由現金流利潤率提高到 25% 以上，這是我們過去已經證明的水平，也是我們相信未來能夠實現的水平。現在轉向我們對第四季的預期。正如 Kurt 所提到的，我們預計第四季營收為 34 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元。在我們營收前景的中點，這一數字年增約 3%，比第三季下降約 1%。

Furthermore, given our manufacturing cycle times, the current demand environment, and our lean channel inventory. Our guidance contemplates improving the channel inventory to 1.6-month level for Q4. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be flat sequentially at 58.5%, plus or minus 50 basis points as we continue to balance mix and internal utilizations. However, we do see slightly higher input costs from our suppliers. As a result, we remain focused on mitigating these higher input costs through a combination of productivity and passing higher input costs along to our customers. Operating expenses are expected to be $785 million, plus or minus about $10 million. Taken together, non-GAAP operating margin will be 35.4% at the midpoint. We expect non-GAAP financial expense to be $69 million and the non-GAAP tax will be $180 million or an effective non-GAAP tax rate of 15.9% of profit before tax.

此外，考慮到我們的製造週期、當前的需求環境以及我們的精實通路庫存。我們的指導計畫將第四季的通路庫存提高至 1.6 個月的水平。隨著我們繼續平衡組合和內部利用率，我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率將與上一季持平，為 58.5%，上下浮動 50 個基點。然而，我們確實看到供應商的投入成本略高。因此，我們仍然專注於透過提高生產力並將更高的投入成本轉嫁給客戶來降低這些更高的投入成本。營運費用預計為 7.85 億美元，上下浮動約 1,000 萬美元。總而言之，非 GAAP 營業利益率為中位數 35.4%。我們預計非 GAAP 財務費用為 6,900 萬美元，非 GAAP 稅收將為 1.8 億美元，或有效非 GAAP 稅率為稅前利潤的 15.9%。

Non-controlling interest will be $6 million. For Q4, we suggest for modeling purposes, you use an average share count of 260 million shares and capital expenditures of 6% of revenue. We expect stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP guidance to be $106 million. Taken together, at the midpoint, implies a non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.65.

非控制權益將為 600 萬美元。對於第四季度，出於建模目的，我們建議您使用 2.6 億股的平均股數和收入的 6% 的資本支出。我們預計以股票為基礎的薪酬（未包含在我們的非 GAAP 指引中）為 1.06 億美元。總而言之，中點意味著非 GAAP 每股收益為 3.65 美元。

Now for 2024, non-GAAP modeling, we propose you to assume the following: we expect to increase channel inventory sometime in 2024 to support anticipated growth, ensure proper customer stock levels and to support our long-tail customers. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to remain at the high end of our long-term model, plus or minus the normal 50 basis points. Non-GAAP operating expenses, we plan to manage the business at or below the 23% of sales.

現在，對於 2024 年非 GAAP 建模，我們建議您做出以下假設：我們預計在 2024 年某個時候增加通路庫存，以支援預期成長、確保適當的客戶庫存水準並支持我們的長尾客戶。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率將保持在我們長期車型的高端，加上或減去正常的 50 個基點。根據非 GAAP 營運費用，我們計劃將業務管理水準控制在銷售額的 23% 或以下。

For capital expenditures, we expect to stay within the long-term model of 6% to 8% of sales for stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP results, we suggest using approximately $450 million. And for non-GAAP taxes, we expect a 17% rate versus the prior view of 18%. So in closing, I would like to highlight what we shared last cycle. First, from a performance standpoint as we navigate a soft landing through a challenging and cyclical demand environment, we will continue to be disciplined to manage what is in our control and stay within our long-term financial model.

對於資本支出，我們預計將保持在銷售額的 6% 至 8% 的長期模式內用於基於股票的薪酬，這不包括在我們的非 GAAP 業績中，我們建議使用約 4.5 億美元。對於非 GAAP 稅收，我們預期稅率為 17%，而先前的觀點為 18%。最後，我想強調一下我們上個週期分享的內容。首先，從業績的角度來看，當我們在充滿挑戰和週期性的需求環境中實現軟著陸時，我們將繼續遵守紀律，管理我們控制範圍內的事情，並保持在我們的長期財務模型之內。

Second, operationally, the Q4 guidance assumes internal factory utilization will be in the low- to mid-70s range. A level we expect to hold until internal inventory normalizes.

其次，從營運角度來看，第四季指引假設工廠內部利用率將在 70 左右的範圍內。我們預計將保持這一水平，直至內部庫存恢復正常。

And lastly, we plan to hold more cash on the balance sheet to enable greater flexibility. We also plan to retire the $1 billion March 2024 debt tranche, when it comes due with our cash on hand, which will result in an improved gross debt leverage ratio below the current 2.1x level today. Finally, we will remain active repurchasing our shares. I would like to now turn it back over to the operator for your questions.

最後，我們計劃在資產負債表上持有更多現金，以實現更大的靈活性。我們還計劃在 2024 年 3 月到期時用我們手頭上的現金償還 10 億美元的債務，這將導致總債務槓桿率改善至當前 2.1 倍以下的水平。最後，我們將繼續積極回購我們的股票。我現在想將其轉回接線員詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾（Ross Seymore）。

Congrats on navigating the choppy times. Kurt, for my first question, I just wanted to talk about the linearity of demand. That was very helpful that you gave the fourth quarter and so much details on the first quarter in 2024. But in general, it seems like you're refilling the channel a little bit in your outer quarter guide and the channel was a big driver sequentially in the third quarter. So how are we to think about the channel directionally from here, appreciating, of course, that it's already at the low end of the range. What are the puts and takes in your decisions to seemingly slowly refill that?

恭喜您度過了波濤洶湧的時代。庫爾特，對於我的第一個問題，我只想談談需求的線性。您提供了第四季度以及 2024 年第一季度的詳細信息，這非常有幫助。但總的來說，您似乎在外季度指南中稍微補充了該渠道，並且該渠道依次是一個很大的驅動因素在第三季。那麼我們如何從這裡開始定向思考通道，當然，它已經處於該範圍的低端。為了看似緩慢地補充這一點，你做了哪些決定？

Thanks, Ross. Let me indeed, first of all, say that these fluctuations between 1.5 and 1.6 are partially beyond our control, to be honest. I mean it just ticked down a little in the third quarter, we think we are anyway sitting at the absolute minimum where it should be. So we felt it is appropriate to move it back to the 1.6 level. What I think is more important in the bigger context of that general management is that over 1.5 years now, I would say, we have kept it intentionally very, very lean, always around this 1.5 or 1.6 level in a dropping environment.

謝謝，羅斯。首先，老實說，1.5 和 1.6 之間的這些波動部分超出了我們的控制範圍。我的意思是，第三季的情況略有下降，我們認為無論如何我們都處於應有的絕對最低水準。所以我們覺得把它移回1.6的水平是合適的。我認為，在整體管理的更大背景下，更重要的是，我想說，在過去 1.5 年裡，我們有意保持非常非常精簡，在不斷下滑的環境中始終保持在 1.5 或 1.6 水平左右。

So in an environment, where demand was weak and rather dropping. Going forward, as I said in my prepared remarks, we think the environment is more stable or up again, which is why we did say that at some point through next year, we will also start to refill the channel again. The speed of that and the magnitude will really depend on the environment. We will not go higher than the 2.4 or 2.5 level, which is our long-term target and which has been our long-term target in the past.

因此，在需求疲軟甚至下降的環境下。展望未來，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們認為環境更加穩定或再次上升，這就是為什麼我們確實說過在明年的某個時候，我們也將開始再次填充通道。其速度和幅度實際上取決於環境。我們不會高於2.4或2.5的水平，這是我們的長期目標，也是我們過去的長期目標。

If there was a sharp rebound in China and we said the same last quarter, then of course, we would probably go back relatively quickly. But in a more stable environment as we anticipate until next year, we will start to refill next year, Ross, because we think that is important to make sure we hold competitiveness in the channel for our long-term customers. So there will be a moment, where it will be just important in a stable environment to have enough product on the shelf to remain competitive.

如果中國出現大幅反彈，我們上個季度也這麼說，那麼我們當然可能會相對較快地回升。但在我們預計明年之前的更穩定的環境中，羅斯，我們將在明年開始補充，因為我們認為這對於確保我們在長期客戶的管道中保持競爭力非常重要。因此，總有一天，在穩定的環境中，貨架上有足夠的產品以保持競爭力非常重要。

I guess as my follow-up, 1 for Bill. On the gross margin side, you guys have done a great job keeping it at the high end of the range despite all the puts and takes on the end markets and the weakness overall. What are the puts and takes for next year? And you said that you'd stay at the high end of the range, plus or minus fill through that period, also impressive. Is that just the structural new base for the company? How are you able to keep it at the 58% range versus the 55% to 58% that you have given at your last analyst meeting?

我想作為我的後續行動，1 是給比爾的。在毛利率方面，儘管終端市場出現了所有的看跌期權和認沽期權以及整體疲軟，但你們仍然做得很好，將其保持在範圍的高端。明年的看​​漲期權和看跌期權是什麼？你說你會保持在範圍的高端，在這段時間內加或減填充，也令人印象深刻。這只是公司的新結構基地嗎？與上次分析師會議上給出的 55% 至 58% 相比，您如何能夠將其保持在 58% 的範圍內？

Sure. So let me address the current -- the last couple of quarters. As mentioned, our internal utilizations are running, call it, low- to mid-70s and that headwind is being offset by our distribution mix. It's a bit richer in margin and that represented about 57% of our composition of revenue of this quarter, which is up from 51%. So there's sort of offsetting each other in the short term, and we see the same to occur in Q4.

當然。因此，讓我談談當前的情況——過去幾個季度的情況。如前所述，我們的內部利用率正在運行，稱之為 70 年代中低端，而我們的分銷組合正在抵消這種逆風。它的利潤率要高一些，約占我們本季營收組成的 57%，高於 51%。因此，短期內會出現相互抵銷的情況，我們認為第四季也會發生同樣的情況。

Now if we look ahead, what are some of the levers that perhaps can drive gross margin higher over the long term. And I think we've talked about these in the past. But again, higher revenues over our fixed cost structure is one. Obviously, we're going to have continued productivity gains clearly, eventually, we're going to demand from our internal factory standpoint. So think about higher utilizations.

現在，如果我們展望未來，有哪些槓桿可能可以長期推動毛利率上升。我想我們過去已經討論過這些。但同樣，高於固定成本結構的收入就是其中之一。顯然，我們的生產力將持續提高，最終，我們將從我們內部工廠的角度提出要求。因此，請考慮更高的利用率。

Kurt talked about next share, we're seeing neutral pricing and then really, I think a focus more longer term is expanding our long-tail customers in the mass market. And then eventually, what we've always talked about with where our R&D investment scale is that ramp of our new product introduction. So some of those levers that we have to get us comfortable on continuing to bring gross margin above our current high end of our model. Again, 58% is not the end goal. It's not our final destination. We're going to continue to work on this from a company initiative.

庫爾特談到了下一個份額，我們看到了中性定價，然後實際上，我認為更長期的重點是擴大我們在大眾市場的長尾客戶。最終，我們一直在談論的研發投資規模是我們新產品推出的斜坡。因此，我們必須採取一些槓桿措施，讓我們能夠繼續將毛利率提高到高於目前車型的高端水平。再次強調，58% 並不是最終目標。這不是我們的最終目的地。我們將根據公司的倡議繼續致力於此。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vivek Arya 與美國銀行證券公司的聯繫。

Kurt, you mentioned you expect to grow through '24, but how do we square that with just 1% or so Auto production growth that is lower than the mid-single-digit Auto production growth that we saw in '23 when your overall sales were flat. So I guess the question is, what content lift did you see in '23? And what are your assumptions for Automotive content growth in '24.

庫爾特，您提到您預計在24 年實現增長，但我們如何將其與1% 左右的汽車產量增長相匹配，該增長低於我們在23 年看到的中個位數汽車產量增長，當時您的整體銷售量是平的。所以我想問題是，您在 23 年看到了哪些內容提升？您對 24 年汽車內容成長的假設是什麼？

Yes, it's clearly, that the revenue is driven and the demand is driven by content increase, much more go than SAAR. At the same time, you are, of course, right, the latest SAAR update for this year, which I saw is actually almost 8% up over 2022, which is by the way, every quarter that was taken up further. So (inaudible) this year. And yes, indeed, also the forecast, which we use from S&P for next year, I think it's just 1% up. So it's almost flat next year. Now if you take NXP automotive revenue, Vivek, if you take our Q4 guidance, then this year's annual revenue growth of NXP will be like 9% or so. So 9% automotive NXP in '23 over '22. With that number, I believe we are under-shipping demand. And we are actually intentionally under-shipping demand because as we've always said, we did not want to create this wave of inventory ahead of us, which will lead to a cliff to drop down from.

是的，很明顯，收入是由內容增加所驅動的，需求是由內容增加所驅動的，比 SAAR 更重要。同時，你當然是對的，今年最新的 SAAR 更新，我看到實際上比 2022 年增長了近 8%，順便說一下，每個季度都會進一步進行。所以（聽不清楚）今年。是的，確實如此，我們使用標準普爾公司對明年的預測，我認為它只上漲了 1%。所以明年幾乎持平。現在，如果你看恩智浦汽車收入，Vivek，如果你看我們第四季的指導，那麼恩智浦今年的年收入成長將是 9% 左右。因此，恩智浦在 23 年汽車產業的比例比 22 年高出 9%。從這個數字來看，我相信我們的出貨需求不足。事實上，我們故意低於發貨需求，因為正如我們一直所說的那樣，我們不想在我們面前創造這一波庫存，這將導致懸崖墜落。

That's why, since early in the year, we have tried to make sure to not enforce NCNR to an extent that we would not build excess inventory. And as we discussed with Ross just a minute ago, we kept to see the channel very lean in mind view. Also in Automotive, 40% of our revenue goes through the channel. So the channel is pretty significant part also of the Automotive business. So what I mean to say here, Vivek, is that we think we are through this inventory digestion at some point next year, which means the revenue growth in our automotive business will return more to levels, which are reflecting the true demand. I can't tell you when exactly that's going to be next year, but maybe it's safe to assume that through the first half, we are still a little bit working ourselves through this inventory digestion.

這就是為什麼自今年年初以來，我們一直在努力確保不執行 NCNR，以免造成庫存過剩。正如我們一分鐘前與羅斯討論的那樣，我們一直以非常精簡的思維方式看待頻道。同樣在汽車領域，我們 40% 的收入來自該管道。因此，通路也是汽車業務的重要組成部分。因此，Vivek，我在這裡想說的是，我們認為我們將在明年的某個時候完成庫存消化，這意味著我們汽車業務的收入成長將更多地恢復到反映真實需求的水平。我無法告訴你明年具體是什麼時候，但也許可以安全地假設，在上半年，我們仍在努力消化庫存。

But in the second half, we should be clean from that. Including then the replenishment of the channel, and that's why I make the statement of growing year-on-year throughout the year every quarter. By the way, that statement was relative to the whole company. We discussed it now for Automotive, but in principle, that whole pattern, which I just explained, is also true for entire NXP. And that's why we continue to be confident that we are probably managing that so-called soft landing. Since we have just anticipated this inventory issue relatively early, have proactively managed it, which means we will not run into this cliff and then resume into year-over-year growth as early as quarter 1 of next year.

但在下半場，我們應該擺脫這一點。包括通路的補貨，所以我每季都會說全年同比增長。順便說一下，這個說法是針對整個公司的。我們現在討論了汽車領域的問題，但原則上，我剛才解釋的整個模式也適用於整個恩智浦。這就是為什麼我們仍然相信我們可能正在實現所謂的軟著陸。由於我們相對較早預見了這個庫存問題，並積極進行了管理，這意味著我們不會陷入這種懸崖，並最早在明年第一季恢復同比增長。

For my follow-up, just on '24, thanks for giving us the high-level views. So Q1, you mentioned normal seasonal. What is normal seasonal for your Automotive business sequentially in Q1? And if I kind of just expand that question overall to '24. In your presentation, you kept your '21 to '24 model, right? That suggests that even at the low end of that 8% to 12% CAGR, your '24 sales should be in the neighborhood of $14 billion or so. Is that an useful assumption as we think about overall '24. So just Q1 Autos and overall '24 sales.

對於我的後續行動，就在 24 年，感謝您向我們提供高層意見。 Q1，你提到了正常的季節性。第一季您的汽車業務的正常季節是什麼？如果我將這個問題擴展到「24」。在您的演示中，您保留了 '21 到 '24 模型，對吧？這表明，即使複合年增長率為 8% 到 12%，您的 24 年銷售額也應該在 140 億美元左右。當我們考慮整個 24 年時，這是一個有用的假設嗎？所以只有第一季的汽車銷售量和 24 年的整體銷售量。

Yes, look, Vivek, I think we really went quite far in this call, given the turmoil around us and some of the uncertainty created by some of our peer companies, we went quite far here in order to give quite some color on next year. We really don't want to go down the path of providing that color by segment, by revenue segment by quarter. There will be just 1 shot too far. So stay with me with what I said of a more seasonal pattern for Q1 for the whole company, which was a mid- to upper single-digit sequential decline, which is, by the way, what we've always had pre-COVID. So there's nothing really strange about this in a normal pricing environment with normalized [3x] everything pretty much back to normal.

是的，聽著，Vivek，我認為我們在這次電話會議中確實走了很遠，考慮到我們周圍的動盪以及我們的一些同行公司造成的一些不確定性，我們在這裡走了很遠，以便為明年提供一些色彩。我們真的不想走上按細分市場、按收入細分市場、按季度提供這種顏色的道路。只會有 1 次射門太遠。因此，請繼續我所說的整個公司第一季的季節性模式，這是中上個位數的連續下降，順便說一句，這也是我們在新冠疫情之前一直存在的情況。因此，在正常定價環境中，這並沒有什麼奇怪的，標準化 [3x] 一切都幾乎恢復正常。

The other half of your question was about the commitment, which we have given in, I think, in November '21 in our Investor Day about the 3-year growth, which indeed was a 8% to 12% corridor. And yes, Vivek. We stand behind that corridor. We do stand behind hitting that corridor of 8% to 12%, like all the rest of the model, by the way. I mean, Bill just talked about the gross margin being more at the high end of them all. On the revenue, we will also be in the corridor of 8% to 12%, where we will be in the corridor. It really depends on a couple of macroeconomic factors, including especially more of a return of China and the timing thereof which is very hard to judge. So we just can't go there. But that should not get us either way out of that corridor. We should hit it.

你問題的另一半是關於我們的承諾，我認為，我們在 21 年 11 月的投資者日上已經做出了關於 3 年增長的承諾，這確實是 8% 到 12% 的走廊。是的，維韋克。我們站在那條走廊後面。順便說一句，我們確實支持達到 8% 到 12% 的走廊，就像模型的所有其他部分一樣。我的意思是，比爾剛剛談到毛利率處於其中的高端。在收入方面，我們也將處於 8% 至 12% 的區間內，我們將處於這個區間。這實際上取決於幾個宏觀經濟因素，尤其是中國的回歸及其時機，而這很難判斷。所以我們不能去那裡。但這不該讓我們走出這條走廊。我們應該擊中它。

Our next question comes from the line of William Stein with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

First, Kurt, I think it was in your comments. I'm not sure, if it was restricted to your outlook of EVs, specifically, but maybe more of this electrified drivetrain sort of hybrids maybe is what you were talking about. But it still seems like a big jump to me next year. And would we consider the overall EV market has won North American OEM that's been growing very quickly and there's 1 Chinese maybe many, but 1 really big Chinese OEM has been doing very well. But among the sort of traditional multinational OEMs, their EV sales have been really weak. And I wonder, if your outlook for next year embeds a view that the multinationals are going to do better in this category or if the companies that have had success only get bigger? And then I have a follow-up.

首先，庫爾特，我認為這是在你的評論中。我不確定這是否僅限於您對電動車的看法，但也許更多的是這種電氣化動力傳動系統類型的混合動力車可能就是您所談論的。但對我來說明年仍然是一個巨大的飛躍。我們是否認為整個電動車市場已經贏得了北美原始設備製造商的青睞，這些原始設備製造商成長非常快，其中有1 個中國原始設備製造商，也許很多，但1 個真正大型的中國原始設備製造商一直表現得非常好。但在傳統的跨國整車廠中，他們的電動車銷量確實很疲軟。我想知道，您對明年的展望是否包含跨國公司將在這一領域做得更好的觀點，或者是否已經取得成功的公司只會變得更大？然後我有一個後續行動。

Thanks, Will. That I see where you are going and let me try to be as clear as possible. First, yes, I did talk about what the category is called xEVs. That is a combination of the hybrid electric and the fully battery electric vehicles. It's a category used by S&P. So it's our invention, but specifically every car, which has either only an electric drivetrain or also an electric drivetrain next to a combustion engine drivetrain. That's what matters for us because that is the stuff which calls for more semiconductors. And yes, we do believe it continues to grow quite sharply. So this year, the latest forecast is, and since we are in November, I guess, it's quite accurate. 33% of the total car production, which is in the order of, I think, 89 million units this year, 33% of that 89 million cars produced this year are xEV.

謝謝，威爾。我知道你要去哪裡，讓我盡量說得清楚。首先，是的，我確實談到了 xEV 類別。這是混合動力電動車和全電池電動車的組合。這是標準普爾使用的類別。所以這是我們的發明，但具體來說是每輛汽車，它要么只有電動傳動系統，要么在內燃機傳動系統旁邊還有一個電動傳動系統。這對我們來說很重要，因為這需要更多的半導體。是的，我們確實相信它會繼續大幅成長。所以今年最新的預測是，由於我們是在 11 月份，我想它是相當準確的。佔汽車總產量的 33%，我認為今年的產量約為 8,900 萬輛，其中今年生產的 8,900 萬輛汽車中有 33% 是 xEV。

And that number is forecast to grow to 41%, which is a 29% year-on-year growth. So if you go in absolute terms, then there will be 29% more of these xEVs next year than this year. Now where does it come from? Look, well, I think it is a little misleading to look at this from a U.S. perspective. The U.S. car producers are actually from a global perspective, relatively small. Europe is a little better, but where really the main volume is driven, that is China. And on top of that, China is the one which is also driving the dynamic now in the electric vehicle space.

這一數字預計將增長至 41%，年增 29%。因此，如果以絕對值計算，明年 xEV 的數量將比今年多 29%。現在它從哪裡來？好吧，我認為從美國的角度來看這個問題有點誤導。美國的汽車生產商實際上從全球角度來看，規模相對較小。歐洲稍好一些，但真正推動主要銷售的是中國。最重要的是，中國現在也正在推動電動車領域的發展。

So I think if you just take some of the commentary and some of the adjustment in investment programs, which were published of U.S. companies, then that is not representative of what is going to happen on a global level. But long story short, yes, we do believe this xEV categories moving to solid 40%, 41% of the global format here, which is obviously very supportive to our semiconductor content growth, by the way, beyond pure electrification systems, as we discussed earlier, those cars tend to be higher features in electronics above everything. So also ADAS systems like our RADAR and the whole SDV software-defined vehicle introduction happens faster with these cars, which is why it is also important to our revenue. We believe in that we do not see a massive slowing in the electric vehicle penetration.

所以我認為，如果你只看美國公司發布的一些評論和投資計畫的一些調整，那麼這並不能代表全球層面將要發生的事情。但長話短說，是的，我們確實相信 xEV 類別將佔據全球份額的 40%、41%，這顯然非常有利於我們的半導體含量增長，順便說一句，正如我們所討論的，超越純電氣化系統早些時候，這些汽車往往在電子方面具有更高的功能。因此，ADAS 系統（例如我們的雷達）和整個 SDV 軟體定義車輛的引入在這些汽車上發生得更快，這就是為什麼它對我們的收入也很重要。我們相信，我們不會看到電動車普及率大幅放緩。

That's really helpful. And you sort of led me into the follow-up, which is Ultra-Wideband. I think you were early to see this among other trends, but I'm hoping you can update us as to how you're seeing uptake in that product both in automotive and handsets.

這真的很有幫助。你讓我進入了後續，即超寬頻。我認為您很早就看到了這一趨勢以及其他趨勢，但我希望您能向我們介紹您如何看待該產品在汽車和手機領域的應用。

On the handset side, nothing really new. We are still waiting for a bit more dynamic in the Android space, which has nothing to do with Ultra-Wideband, which is more a mobile-wide industry situation, where you might have seen in our guide for Mobile for the fourth quarter, excuse me, we are again sequentially up a little in Mobile, which is also driven by Android. So given our very lean inventory also in Android space, we think if there is now a bit more dynamic in the Android space, we're going to benefit from it. And with that will provide us because it's going to be proportional then up.

在手機方面，並沒有什麼新鮮事。我們仍在等待 Android 領域的更多動態，這與超寬頻無關，這更多的是行動範圍的行業情況，您可能已經在我們第四季度的行動指南中看到了，藉口對我來說，我們在行動領域的排名再次略有上升，這也是由Android 驅動的。因此，鑑於我們在 Android 領域的庫存也非常精簡，我們認為，如果 Android 領域現在有更多的活力，我們將從中受益。這將為我們提供幫助，因為它將成正比。

In the Auto space, we feel very good. So we are ahead of what we wanted to achieve in Ultra-Wideband. So we have, I think, something like 7 platforms in production. So there are 7 car platforms, which are in production with our Ultra-Wideband automotive product.

在汽車領域，我們感覺非常好。因此，我們領先於我們想要在超寬頻方面實現的目標。所以我認為我們有大約 7 個正在生產的平台。因此，有 7 個汽車平台正在使用我們的超寬頻汽車產品進行生產。

To my knowledge, something like 18 to 20 new platforms are awarded or 18 of 20 are rewarded to NXP. So there is 2 small platforms, which have knocked down to NXP out of 20. Actually, we rejected them because they were under the security standards which we want to ship and would have been largely dilutive. So that means overall, the momentum in Ultra-Wideband Automotive is very, very good.

據我所知，大約有 18 到 20 個新平台被授予，或 20 個平台中有 18 個被獎勵給恩智浦。因此，有 2 個小型平台，已從 20 個平台中淘汰給恩智浦。實際上，我們拒絕了它們，因為它們符合我們想要發布的安全標準，並且會在很大程度上稀釋。因此，這意味著總體而言，超寬頻汽車的發展勢頭非常非常好。

Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究中心的史黛西‧拉斯貢 (Stacy Rasgon)。

I wanted to go back to the channel inventory. Is the amount that you have to ship still $500 million? And would you still grow year-over-year in 2024, if you didn't decide to fill up the channel next year?

我想回到通路庫存。您必須運送的金額仍然是 5 億美元嗎？如果您明年不決定填補管道，那麼到 2024 年您的業績還會比去年同期成長嗎？

So the answer is yes and yes, Stacy. That delta between -- well, now it's actually even a little bit bigger, because to be perfectly precise, the $500 million, I think, came from 1.6 months going to 2.4. Since now we are at 1.5, it's probably even a little more than the $500 million, but that's -- it's immaterial. So the answer here is yes. That is.

所以答案是肯定的，史黛西。嗯，現在實際上甚至更大了，因為準確地說，我認為這 5 億美元是從 1.6 個月增加到 2.4 個月。既然現在我們是 1.5，它甚至可能比 5 億美元多一點，但這並不重要。所以這裡的答案是肯定的。那是。

Secondly, no, we do not need the $500 million growth next year because that whole channel replenishment next year is something we will do some time to some amount. So that cannot be the basis of a guide for next year.

其次，不，我們不需要明年 5 億美元的成長，因為明年整個通路的補貨是我們將在一段時間內進行的事情。因此，這不能成為明年指南的基礎。

Got it. For my follow-ups, I just wanted to ask about some of the geographical macro trends that you mentioned. I found it a little confusing. It sounded like you thought China was getting better. But then you said next year, like where you land in the guidance for the full year depending on China and getting better. We're not hearing from any of your competitors that like China or anything else is getting better.

知道了。對於我的後續行動，我只想詢問您提到的一些地理宏觀趨勢。我覺得有點混亂。聽起來你認為中國正在變得更好。但你又說明年，例如你在全年指導中的位置取決於中國並變得更好。我們沒有聽到任何競爭對手說中國或其他方面正在變得更好。

I'm just -- can you give us a little more color on what you're seeing by geography? And maybe like what do you think the sources of change of the discrepancy? Why do you guys see things improving in an overall market where you still sound like fairly cautious and your competitors certainly all sound fairly cautious.

我只是——你能給我們更多關於你所看到的地理方面的資訊嗎？也許您認為差異變化的根源是什麼？為什麼你們會看到整個市場的情況有所改善，你們聽起來仍然相當謹慎，而你們的競爭對手當然也都聽起來相當謹慎。

Okay. So let me peel the onions, Stacy. First of all, maybe really on a company level. The reason why we do comparably better, if you look at the quarter, to our peers is, again, a soft lending navigation, which we have entered into already early this year and when you think about the channel already middle of last year. We have certainly shipped less over that period, Stacy.

好的。那麼就讓我剝洋蔥吧，史黛西。首先，也許確實是在公司層面。如果你看看這個季度，我們的同業做得相對更好的原因又是軟貸款導航，我們在今年年初就已經進入了軟貸款導航，當你考慮到去年年中已經進入的管道時。史黛西，那段時間我們的出貨量確實減少了。

And you find that if you compare our growth rates, say, a 3-year CAGR over the last 3 years versus some competitors, especially in Auto, and you see that even more sharply, if you look at this year's Auto growth, as I said earlier, which I think is 9%, we have undergrown competitors. And that undergrowth is still be that we ship less on inventory than we believe some of our peers have done. That, of course, also explains that going forward, we don't see this sharp decline. It's just a softer management through this cycle.

你會發現，如果你將我們的成長率（例如，過去3 年的3 年複合年增長率）與一些競爭對手（尤其是汽車產業）進行比較，你會發現，如果你看看今年的汽車成長，你會發現這一點更加明顯。之前說過，我認為是 9%，我們有不成熟的競爭對手。問題仍然在於我們的庫存出貨量比我們認為的一些同行要少。當然，這也解釋了未來我們不會看到這種急劇下降。這只是這個週期中更軟的管理。

Now we do it very, very intentionally because we believe this is very beneficial to our gross margin trajectory, which is not going to suffer that part from under loading factories too hard. So that's actually, where the direction has been coming from.

現在我們非常非常有意地這樣做，因為我們相信這對我們的毛利率軌跡非常有利，這不會因為工廠負荷不足而對該部分造成太大影響。所以這其實就是方向的來源。

Now on the geographic side, Stacy, you have to ask this because I do know that what we just guided, especially in Industrial IoT, and that is largely relative to China is very different to what you heard from a lot of peers. So I just want to repeat, we have both sequentially and year-on-year, we just guided quarter 4 up by a high single-digit percentage, which is in sharp contrast to what several of our competitors have said.

現在，在地理方面，史黛西，你必須問這個問題，因為我確實知道我們剛剛指導的內容，特別是在工業物聯網方面，很大程度上與中國有關，與你從許多同行那裡聽到的內容非常不同。因此，我想重複一遍，我們的環比和同比都表現出色，我們剛剛以高個位數百分比指導第四季度的成長，這與我們的一些競爭對手所說的形成鮮明對比。

We simply think this is because we saw and had our trough in Industrial IoT already in quarter 1 of this calendar year. If you look at the numbers, we had a sharp drop there. We have made absolutely sure we would not increase inventories from there. So we are very close to the pulse of the demand. Since then, since Q1, we have been readily going up. And that was long messaging, which might have been a bit confusing around China. What I meant to say is we keep moving up incrementally quarter-to-quarter-to-quarter, while it's still down from a year-on-year perspective.

我們只是認為這是因為我們在今年第一季就看到了工業物聯網的低谷。如果你看一下數字，你會發現我們的情況急劇下降。我們絕對確定不會增加庫存。所以我們非常接近需求的脈動。從那時起，自第一季以來，我們一直在穩步上升。這是很長的訊息，在中國可能會有點令人困惑。我的意思是，我們每個季度都在逐步上升，但與去年同期相比仍然有所下降。

So we are still waiting, and we don't put this in any of our numbers on the big rebound in China, so that's not there. But incrementally, sequentially, it keeps improving. It has improved the past couple of quarters, and it does improve again now into quarter 4.

所以我們仍在等待，我們沒有將其納入中國經濟大幅反彈的任何數據中，所以這不存在。但循序漸進，它不斷改進。它在過去幾個季度有所改善，現在進入第四季度又有所改善。

So that was the commentary on China. So it's cautiously positive. But again, it is simply because we had our trough there already in quarter 1, and it was a tough trough. I mean you just do the math. It was really deep. We just did it much earlier than many others.

這就是對中國的評論。所以它是謹慎積極的。但同樣，這只是因為我們在第一季就已經遇到了低谷，而且這​​是一個艱難的低谷。我的意思是你只需做數學計算。真的很深。我們只是比其他許多人做得更早。

Our next question comes from the line of Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的加里‧莫布里 (Gary Mobley)。

Clearly, China is a market -- the China automotive market is a market, where you can be quite vertically integrated from the chip supply chain perspective. The market is large enough in terms of volumes, and there seems to be some ability to invest in that area by domestic China competitors. So my question for you is, how are you planning to retain your business with China automotive brands, when you probably long term see increasing competition from the domestic players?

顯然，中國是一個市場——中國汽車市場是一個可以從晶片供應鏈角度進行垂直整合的市場。從數量上看，這個市場足夠大，而且中國國內的競爭對手似乎有一定的能力在該領域進行投資。所以我問你的問題是，當你可能長期看到來自國內企業的競爭日益激烈時，你打算如何保留與中國汽車品牌的業務？

Yes, Gary. First of all, it's our business. It has been our business and will continue to be our business to be competitive. So I come back to your specific point, but I mean in itself, it's nothing new. Our whole game, our whole priority in life is to be competitive, wherever we play. So in China, indeed, so far, the competitors, which we do see in the automotive space, which you focus on, have been largely our Western competitors plus relates from Japan.

是的，加里。首先，這是我們的事。保持競爭力一直是我們的業務，並將繼續是我們的業務。所以我回到你的具體觀點，但我的意思是，它本身並不是什麼新鮮事。我們的整個比賽，我們生活中的首要任務就是保持競爭力，無論我們在哪裡比賽。因此，事實上，到目前為止，在中國，我們在汽車領域確實看到的競爭對手，也就是您所關注的，主要是我們的西方競爭對手以及日本的相關企業。

So we have hardly seen any local competition. So that's absolutely right. Now over the past, I'd say, couple of quarters, local competition in China came more up in low-end micro controllers. However, not in automotive. We haven't seen that entering into automotive at all. We also don't play that much in the low-end microcontroller space. So I mean, we've been seeing it, but it's not been a big event for us at all.

所以我們幾乎沒有看到任何本地競爭。所以這是絕對正確的。我想說，過去幾個季度，中國本土的競爭更多出現在低端微控制器領域。然而，在汽車領域卻並非如此。我們還沒有看到這種情況進入汽車領域。我們在低階微控制器領域也沒有玩太多。所以我的意思是，我們已經看到了，但這對我們來說根本不是一件大事。

Secondly, we do see a significant focus of local Chinese up-and-coming semiconductor companies on silicon carbide. I mean, I just spent 1.5 weeks in China, and it was obvious that there was massive investment and massive focus both in factory engineering and device engineering on silicon carbide in China. The good news, if you will, is that this doesn't really matter for us because that's one of the businesses we do not do. But I think it takes some of the focus away from the things we do. My personal take would be that probably going forward, we will see a start of more competition in the simpler analogic signal world in China, which would then probably also touch automotive.

其次，我們確實看到中國本土新興半導體公司非常關注碳化矽。我的意思是，我只在中國待了 1.5 週，很明顯，中國在碳化矽的工廠工程和設備工程方面進行了大量投資和重點關注。好消息是，如果你願意的話，這對我們來說並不重要，因為這是我們不會做的業務之一。但我認為這會分散我們對所做事情的注意力。我個人的看法是，未來我們可能會看到中國更簡單的類比訊號世界開始出現更多競爭，這也可能涉及汽車產業。

I don't say Gray, we [halved it] yes, it's not like we are losing or being under pressure there today. But my take would be probably that's the one segment, where local Chinese semiconductor competitors will also focus on going forward. But again, I mean we've seen this in Korea. We've seen this in Japan in the past. So it's not the first time that we are confronted with local competitors. Yes, we stay paranoid about it, and we'll make sure that we have made an long-term strategies, which are on top of that.

我不是說格雷，我們[減半]是的，今天我們並沒有輸球或面臨壓力。但我的看法可能是，中國本土半導體競爭對手也將聚焦在這一領域。但我再說一遍，我們在韓國已經看到了這一點。我們過去在日本見過這種情況。因此，這並不是我們第一次遇到本地競爭對手。是的，我們對此保持偏執，我們將確保我們制定了長期策略，這是最重要的。

If I follow-up, I wanted to ask about your purchase commitments. They've been running just below $4 billion for the past year, which is consistent with your flattish revenue, but it seems counterintuitive to this maybe the market dynamics that we're in, where you knew you'd have to put less of a commitment with your foundry partners. So maybe if you can just speak to the trends that you expect in your purchase commitments given the industry dynamics in '24?

如果我跟進，我想詢問您的購買承諾。過去一年他們的收入略低於 40 億美元，這與你的收入持平是一致的，但這似乎違反直覺，這可能是我們所處的市場動態，你知道你必須投入更少的資金。與您的鑄造合作夥伴的承諾。因此，考慮到 24 年的行業動態，您是否可以談談您在購買承諾中預期的趨勢？

Well, those are multi-year commitments. And so I guess you referred to, I think in the Q, we have something like a $3.9 billion commitment sitting, which is a multiyear commitment -- which is badly required and badly needed to support our growth over the next 5-plus years, which is what this is referring to.

嗯，這些是多年的承諾。所以我想你提到，我想在 Q 中，我們有 39 億美元的承諾，這是一項多年期的承諾——這是支持我們未來 5 年多的增長所迫切需要的，這就是this 所指的。

So nothing unusual, nothing to worry about. It's just needed for those third-party foundry wafers, which continue to be very tight from a supply perspective and where we are glad we have these commitments to support actually the customer growth. This whole supply situation. Lead times have normalized. That does not mean, however, that we are in every place completely out of the woods. So there is still a couple of technology nodes, where we are actually short, which are also leading to quite a few complications.

所以沒有什麼異常，不用擔心。它只是那些第三方代工晶圓所需要的，從供應角度來看，這些晶圓仍然非常緊張，我們很高興我們有這些承諾來支持客戶的實際成長。這整個供應情況。交貨時間已經正常化。然而，這並不意味著我們在每個地方都完全擺脫了困境。所以還有一些技術節點，我們實際上是短缺的，這也導致了相當多的複雜性。

And there is quite a few others, and that's actually quite a few, where we are just fine, but where we have very stringent discussions with our customers that they need to make sure they give us mid- to long-term forecast because once the business comes back out of this inventory digestion cycle, we really have to make sure we don't enter into a similar period like we did in the second half of 2020. Which is not -- that's not far away from a supplier capability versus demand perspective. So that's why those long-term agreements, which we have there are really needed in the mix of our future revenue growth.

還有很多其他的，實際上也有很多，我們做得很好，但是我們與客戶進行了非常嚴格的討論，他們需要確保為我們提供中長期預測，因為一旦當業務從庫存消化週期中恢復過來時，我們確實必須確保我們不會進入像2020 年下半年那樣的類似時期。這與供應商能力與需求的關係並不遙遠。看法。這就是為什麼我們在未來的收入成長中確實需要這些長期協議。

Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Buchalter with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Joshua Buchalter 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

So I wanted to ask about the Auto outlook for next year. If we sort of layout the puts and takes, production growth will be lower, pricing neutral, it sounds like -- but you mentioned that 2023, there was a some element of digestion. I mean as we stack up the content growth and sort of flat-to-up production and flat pricing, is there a reason -- how should we think about 2024 Auto growth for your business compared to 2023? Is there a reason it should be less than '23?

所以我想問明年的汽車前景。如果我們對看跌期權和看跌期權進行某種佈局，產量增長將會更低，定價中性，這聽起來像是 - 但你提到 2023 年，有一些消化因素。我的意思是，當我們疊加內容增長以及從上到下的生產和統一定價時，是否有一個原因 - 與 2023 年相比，我們應該如何考慮您的業務 2024 年的汽車增長？有沒有理由讓它小於'23？

Hey, Josh, good trial. As well, I have to say to, I think, Vivek earlier, I will not guide now on the segment level 2024, but I can give you at least some of the dynamics at work here. Yes, the SAAR -- the underlying SAAR growth next year is going to be less than it was this year. I think the mix of the penetration to xEV vehicles is better, as we discussed earlier, so going to the 40-plus percent level. So that's supported relative to this year. So it drives further content from where we are. I agree with your statement about more neutral pricing.

嘿，喬什，很好的嘗試。另外，我想早些時候我必須對 Vivek 說，我現在不會在 2024 年的細分級別上進行指導，但我至少可以向您提供一些在這裡工作的動態。是的，SAAR——明年的基本 SAAR 成長將低於今年。正如我們之前討論的，我認為 xEV 車輛的滲透率組合更好，因此達到 40% 以上的水平。因此，相對於今年，這一點得到了支持。因此，它會從我們所處的位置驅動更多的內容。我同意你關於更中性定價的說法。

I think that's a fair assumption across the Board. And having said all of that, the only remaining piece next to our company-specific growth drivers, which are well in place. The only remaining piece is the cycle of inventory digestion and going back to normal end demand, which is [skating] through to our revenue.

我認為這是一個全面的合理假設。話雖如此，除了我們公司特定的成長驅動力之外，唯一剩下的部分已經就位了。唯一剩下的部分是庫存消化和恢復正常最終需求的循環，這會影響我們的收入。

Currently, I can only repeat it, we are undershipping demand. And again, we do this intentionally. We've done it for a few quarters already. It's going to be another couple of quarters, but maybe it's fair to assume by middle of next year that is behind us and then the revenue growth rates in automotive and everything else will go back much closer to what the real end demand is.

目前，我只能重複一遍，我們的出貨需求不足。再說一遍，我們是故意這麼做的。我們已經這樣做了幾個季度了。這還需要幾個季度，但也許可以公平地假設，到明年年中，這一切就過去了，然後汽車和其他所有領域的收入成長率將回到更接近真正的最終需求。

Think about it this way. But so it is really misleading to just look at annual revenue growth in Automotive against SAAR because there is so many other things that work, especially this inventory cycle.

這樣想吧。但因此，僅將汽車產業的年收入成長與 SAAR 進行比較確實具有誤導性，因為還有很多其他因素在發揮作用，尤其是庫存週期。

Understood. I can (inaudible) try. I guess I could ask it another way. You guys used to give a metric about I think it was 70% of your Auto business was tied to SAAR and the balance sort of to more content growth drivers. Maybe you can help quantify that mix or maybe give some directional drivers of things like radar, BMS, the S32 platform as you think [for Q4]?

明白了。我可以（聽不清楚）試試看。我想我可以用另一種方​​式問。你們曾經給過一個指標，我認為你們的汽車業務 70% 與 SAAR 相關，其餘部分則與更多內容成長驅動因素相關。也許您可以幫助量化這種組合，或者提供一些您認為的雷達、BMS、S32 平台等定向驅動因素（第四季度）？

That's not our model, Josh. That might be a model you made, but we haven't really said that. So what we do say and what fits also to your earlier question, is that we do see a continued strong content increase, which is independent of SAAR. And I think that is something which is probably in the 5% to 8% bracket. And that keeps going. Again, there is no reason why that would be slowing next year. But again, it is overlaid by the inventory cycle.

那不是我們的模型，喬許。那可能是你製作的模型，但我們還沒有真正說過。因此，我們所說的也符合您先前的問題是，我們確實看到內容持續強勁成長，這與 SAAR 無關。我認為這個比例可能在 5% 到 8% 之間。這種情況一直持續下去。同樣，明年沒有理由放緩。但同樣，它又被庫存週期所覆蓋。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Toshiya Hari 與高盛的對話。

Kurt, I wanted to ask about the pricing environment into '24 you mentioned that you expect a relatively neutral environment. When we spoke at our conference a couple of months ago, I think at the time, you sort of hinted that your expectation back then was for '24 pricing to be up a little bit more than what you saw in '21, but a little bit less than '22. So I guess there's been a slight change in how you think about pricing A, is that correct? And B, if so, is this more demand-driven? Or are you seeing lower input costs that's enabling you to keep pricing a little more flattish into '24?

Kurt，我想問 24 年的定價環境，您提到您期望一個相對中性的環境。幾個月前，當我們在會議上發言時，我認為當時您暗示您當時的期望是 24 年的定價比您在 21 年看到的價格上漲一點點，但也有一點點比'22小一點。所以我猜您對定價 A 的看法略有變化，對嗎？ B，如果是這樣，這是否更受需求驅動？或者您看到較低的投入成本使您能夠在 24 世紀保持定價更加平穩？

Yes, Toshiya. It's indeed, it's slightly better. It depends on which perspective you want to take on this relative to the input cost. So what we are seeing now is a slight increase in the input costs across everything. So it's really -- I mean, there is pieces, which are going up, unfortunately, quite a bit. Others are starting to come down. So but in the mix, we have a slight increase, on top of that, we put our productivity efforts, and that is what we need to pass on to our customers in terms of -- well, then you land it in a pretty neutral area.

是的，俊哉。確實是這樣，稍微好一點。這取決於您對投入成本的看法。所以我們現在看到的是所有方面的投入成本都略有增加。所以，不幸的是，我的意思是，有些部分正在上漲，而且幅度很大。其他人開始下降。因此，但在混合中，我們略有增加，最重要的是，我們投入了生產力方面的努力，這就是我們需要傳遞給我們的客戶的——好吧，那麼你就把它放在一個相當中性的位置區域。

And that indeed is a touch better than what we discussed when we recently met in your conference. And yes, it is just important to see this indeed in the context of what you mentioned over the past couple of years because in my view, in '21, we increased, I think, by 2% for the whole company in '22 by 14%. This year, we're going to tell you in the Q4 earnings, what it will be, but indeed, it's again a solid number. And that comes then down next year to a more neutral, but I actually made the comment in my prepared remarks, because I wanted to make sure there is no confusion about this possibly going back, because we've had the question very often from analysts and investors. If not this whole pricing would be reverting back down all the way to the pre-COVID levels, it is not. I just want to be very clear. It's just neutral this coming year, which is fine from our perspective.

這確實比我們最近在你們的會議上見面時討論的內容要好得多。是的，在你提到的過去幾年的背景下看到這一點確實很重要，因為在我看來，在 21 年，我們在 22 年為整個公司增加了 2% 14%。今年，我們將在第四季的收益中告訴您具體情況，但事實上，這又是一個可靠的數字。明年會變得更加中立，但我實際上是在準備好的發言中發表了評論，因為我想確保不會對這可能會發生的事情產生混淆，因為我們經常從分析師那裡收到這個問題和投資者。如果不是整個定價會一路回落到新冠疫情前的水平，那就不會了。我只想說得非常清楚。今年的情況只是中性，從我們的角度來看這很好。

Great. That's very helpful. And then as my follow-up, you're guiding your comps and other business down, I guess, upper teens on a sequential basis in Q4. Is that primarily the base station business and the weakness in that market sort of catching up to you guys? Or is there something more to it? And is it fair to say that Q4 is the bottom for that market? Or could things stay relatively weak into the first half of next year?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後，作為我的後續行動，我想，您將在第四季度按順序引導您的比較和其他業務下降到十幾歲。這主要是基地台業務以及該市場的疲軟影響了你們嗎？或者還有更多的事情嗎？可以公平地說第四季是該市場的底部嗎？或者明年上半年情況是否會保持相對疲軟？

Yes. So into Q4, it is both. It is the weak base station demand, which you are also quoting. So it's -- I mean, all the hopes this year have been on India and as you realized it right, it's just going as strong as people and as we had expected. But there is a second component in that weaker revenue for us in Q4 and that is the decline of the pent-up demand in secure cards. I think we spoke about this a couple of times through the year that by favoring Mobile demand in '21 and '22, we have brutally undershipped the secure car business and the solid part of the pent-up demand, we actually satisfied through this year, and that starts now to go away.

是的。所以進入第四季度，兩者都是。您也提到了基地台需求疲軟。所以，我的意思是，今年所有的希望都寄託在印度身上，正如你所意識到的那樣，它的發展正如人們所預期的那樣強勁。但我們第四季營收疲軟的第二個因素是被壓抑的安全卡需求的下降。我認為我們在這一年中多次談到這一點，透過在 21 和 22 年支持行動需求，我們嚴重低估了安全汽車業務和被壓抑需求的堅實部分，我們今年實際上感到滿意，現在這種情況開始消失。

And so that's plus the weak Mobile base station environment explains the downtime into the fourth quarter. How it all plays out next year? I mean, just to go back through my prepared remarks, clearly, that whole segment next year is not necessarily set up for a huge victory lab. Some of these trends, especially in the base station market will likely continue into next year. So staying relatively speaking, weak. So I'm looking at time now. I think we are nearing the end of the call.

再加上行動基地台環境疲軟，導致第四季出現停機。明年一切將如何進行？我的意思是，回顧我準備好的發言，顯然，明年的整個部分不一定是為了一個巨大的勝利實驗室而設立的。其中一些趨勢，尤其是基地台市場的趨勢可能會持續到明年。所以相對而言，要保持弱勢。所以我現在正在看時間。我認為我們的通話即將結束。

And I would like to summarize there. Bill and I really think the main theme of this quarter is especially that, since there has been so much say, different messaging from our peers, we really think that the fundamental content growth drivers in our key businesses being Automotive and the Industrial IoT space are in place, but all of this has been massively overlaid by to what extent people have proactively or not proactively managed the inventory cycle.

我想對此進行總結。比爾和我確實認為本季的主題尤其是，由於我們的同行有很多說法和不同的信息，我們確實認為我們的關鍵業務（汽車和工業物聯網領域）的基本內容增長驅動力是已經到位，但所有這些都在很大程度上被人們主動或不主動管理庫存週期的程度所覆蓋。

We have tried to do this as productively as we could most notably for all of you in the reported general inventory numbers, which for 6 quarters now. We have kept very lean. And also earlier this year, we started to try and do a similar thing on our direct customers by not enforcing NCNR, by being reasonable by finding alternative commercial solutions putting us actually in a situation, where we think we have -- due to this somewhat undershipped the demand more than our competitors, which leads us now going forward in a situation, which is much less pronounced relative to the dip and much more realizing the intended and envisaged soft landing, which we wanted to have.

我們已盡力盡可能有效率地做到這一點，尤其是在報告的總庫存數據中，這已持續了 6 個季度。我們一直保持著非常精簡的狀態。同樣在今年早些時候，我們開始嘗試對我們的直接客戶做類似的事情，不強制執行NCNR，透過合理地尋找替代商業解決方案，使我們實際上處於我們認為已經存在的情況，因為這在某種程度上與我們的競爭對手相比，需求不足的情況更多，這導致我們現在在一種情況下前進，這種情況相對於下滑來說要小得多，並且更多地實現了我們想要的預期和設想的軟著陸。

That is the main point here. Other than that business really going back to a more normal pricing environment lead times being normalized, all reasons to believe that this growth quarter from a quarter year-over-year perspective throughout all of next year, resuming growth. You see this in Q4 already. We have year-on-year growth and that should continue throughout all of next year.

這是這裡的要點。除了業務真正回到更正常的定價環境、交貨時間正常化之外，所有理由都相信，從同比的角度來看，本季的成長將在明年全年恢復成長。您已經在第四季度看到了這一點。我們的年成長應該會持續到明年全年。

With that, I thank you all for the attention today. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

在此，我感謝大家今天的關注。非常感謝。再見。

Thank you all, who are on call here.

謝謝你們所有在這裡待命的人。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。