恩智浦 (NXPI) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NXP Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加恩智浦 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Jeff Palmer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在，我想將會議交給發言人、投資者關係高級副總裁傑夫·帕爾默 (Jeff Palmer)。請繼續。

Thank you, Shannon, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to NXP Semiconductors Third Quarter Earnings Call. With me on the call today is Kurt Sievers, NXP's President and CEO; and Bill Betz, our CFO; the call today is being recorded will be available for replay from our corporate website.

謝謝你，香農，大家早安。歡迎參加恩智浦半導體第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是恩智浦半導體總裁兼執行長 Kurt Sievers；以及我們的財務長 Bill Betz；今天的電話會議正在錄音，可從我們公司網站重播。

Today's call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the macroeconomic impact on specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products and our expectations for the financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023.

今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，其中涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致恩智浦的表現與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於有關我們經營的特定終端市場的宏觀經濟影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們對 2023 年第四季度財務業績的預期的陳述。

Please be reminded that NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements. For a full disclosure on forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release. Additionally, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are driven primarily by discrete events that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance.

請注意，恩智浦不承擔修改或公開更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。有關前瞻性陳述的完整揭露，請參閱我們的新聞稿。此外，我們將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標主要由管理階層認為與 NXP 核心營運績效無直接關係的離散事件所驅動。

Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our third quarter 2023 earnings press release, which will be furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K and available on the NXP's website in the Investor Relations section at nxp.com.

根據 G 規則，恩智浦已在我們的 2023 年第三季度收益新聞稿中提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳表，該對帳表將以 8-K 表格形式提供給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)，並可在恩智浦網站 nxp.com 的投資者關係部分查閱。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Kurt.

現在我想把電話轉給庫爾特。

Thank you very much, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today. I will start with a review of our quarter 3 results, discuss our guidance for quarter 4 and provide our early views of 2024. Now let me begin with quarter 3. NXP delivered quarterly revenue of $3.43 billion $34 million above the midpoint of guidance and essentially flat year-on-year. Revenue trends in our mobile, industrial and IoT and automotive end markets all performed in line or better than anticipated, while our communication infrastructure and other end markets was slightly below our expectations. Our distribution channel inventory during the third quarter declined slightly to a 1.5-month level, well below our long-term target of 2.5 months.

非常感謝，傑夫，大家早安。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。我將首先回顧我們的第三季度業績，討論我們對第四季度的指導並提供我們對 2024 年的初步看法。我們的行動、工業和物聯網以及汽車終端市場的收入趨勢均符合或優於預期，而我們的通訊基礎設施和其他終端市場略低於我們的預期。我們第三季的分銷通路庫存略有下降至 1.5 個月的水平，遠低於我們 2.5 個月的長期目標。

Non-GAAP operating margin in quarter 3 was 35%, 30 basis points below the midpoint of our guidance. This is primarily due to an unforecasted potential legal liability of approximately $14 million, which is reflected in SG&A. Non-GAAP operating margin was down 190 basis points versus the year ago period, primarily as a result of higher R&D investments and the noted potential legal expense. Now let me turn to the specific trends in our focus end markets.

第三季非公認會計準則營業利益率為 35%，比我們預期的中位數低 30 個基點。這主要是由於未預測到的潛在法律責任約為 1,400 萬美元，反映在銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 中。非公認會計準則營業利潤率較去年同期下降 190 個基點，主要原因是研發投入增加以及值得注意的是潛在的法律費用。現在讓我來談談我們關注的終端市場的具體趨勢。

In Automotive, quarter 3 revenue was $1.89 billion, up 5% versus the year ago period and in line with the midpoint of our guidance. In Industrial and IoT, quarter 3 revenue was $607 million, down 15% versus the year ago period, so above the midpoint of our guidance. In Mobile, quarter 3 revenue was $377 million, down 8% versus the year ago period and above the high end of our guidance. In Communication Infrastructure and Other, quarter 3 revenue was $559 million, up 8% year-on-year, so slightly below the midpoint of our guidance.

汽車業務第三季營收為 18.9 億美元，較去年同期成長 5%，與我們的預期中位數一致。在工業和物聯網領域，第三季營收為 6.07 億美元，較去年同期下降 15%，因此高於我們預期的中位數。在行動領域，第三季的營收為 3.77 億美元，較去年同期下降 8%，高於我們預期的高點。在通訊基礎設施和其他領域，第三季營收為 5.59 億美元，年增 8%，略低於我們預期的中位數。

During the third quarter, from a geographic perspective, we experienced incremental improvement across most regions, with China solidly improving quarter-over-quarter. So our shift to rates to China are still down versus the year ago period. From a channel perspective, sequential growth was led by improved sell-through in our distribution business. At the same time, our direct business sequentially declined a reflection of NXP actively managing inventory digestion at our direct customers. Overall, our distribution business represented 57% of sales, up from 51% in the second quarter.

第三季度，從地理角度來看，大多數地區都出​​現了逐步改善，其中中國地區較上季穩定改善。因此，我們對中國的利率轉變與去年同期相比仍然下降。從通路角度來看，連續成長是由於分銷業務的銷售量提高所致。同時，我們的直接業務連續下降，這反映了恩智浦積極管理直接客戶的庫存消化。整體而言，我們的分銷業務佔銷售額的 57%，高於第二季的 51%。

And now I will turn to our expectations for quarter 4, 2023. We are guiding quarter 4 revenue to $3.4 billion. This is about 3% versus the year ago period up and represents a sequential decline of approximately 1% at the midpoint. We anticipate the following trends in our business. Automotive is expected to be up in the mid-single-digit percent range versus quarter 4, 2022 and flattish sequentially. Industrial and IoT is expected to be up in the high single digits on a percentage basis versus both quarter 4, 2022 and quarter 3, 2023. Mobile is expected to be down in the mid-single-digit percent range versus quarter 4, 2022 and up in the low single-digit range on a sequential basis.

現在我來談談我們對 2023 年第四季的預期。與去年同期相比，這一數字上漲了約 3%，但中間值環比下降了約 1%。我們預計我們的業務將出現以下趨勢。與 2022 年第 4 季相比，汽車銷售額預計將成長中個位數百分比，與上一季持平。與 2022 年第 4 季和 2023 年第 3 季相比，工業和物聯網預計百分比將成長高個位數。

And finally, Communication Infrastructure and Other is expected to be down mid-single digits on a percentage basis versus quarter 4, 2022 and down in the upper teens percent sequentially. Our guidance for quarter 4 contemplates ending the fourth quarter at 1.6 months of distribution channel inventory. Zooming out, the combination of our third quarter results and the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance indicates the full year 2023 revenue will be flattish versus 2022 in a challenging and cyclical market environment. When we now turn to our early views on 2024, we continue to see an operating environment with a number of crosscurrents.

最後，預計通訊基礎設施和其他業務與 2022 年第 4 季相比百分比下降中個位數，與上季度相比百分比下降百分之十幾。我們對第四季的預期是預計第四季末分銷通路庫存為 1.6 個月。從廣義來看，結合我們第三季的業績和第四季指引的中點，可以發現在充滿挑戰和週期性的市場環境下，2023 年全年營收將與 2022 年持平。當我們現在回顧對 2024 年的早期看法時，我們仍然看到營運環境存在許多矛盾。

Clearly, the macro environment remains weak, including subdued demand in China, geopolitical challenges and elevated inflation, which is constraining demand. At the company level, lead times have normalized, and we anticipate a more neutral pricing environment going forward. And already, since early this year, we have actively engaged with our large direct customers to drive a reduction in on-hand inventory where needed, rather than just blindly enforcing NCNR commitments. Furthermore, we have demonstrated over several quarters, proactive management of our distribution channel, resulting in a very lean channel inventory position of 1.5 months at the end of quarter 3 versus our long-term target of 2.5 months.

顯然，宏觀環境仍然疲軟，包括中國需求低迷、地緣政治挑戰和通膨上升，這些都抑制了需求。在公司層面，交貨時間已經正常化，我們預期未來的定價環境將更加中性。自今年年初以來，我們就積極與大型直接客戶合作，在必要時減少庫存，而不是盲目地執行 NCNR 承諾。此外，我們已經在幾個季度中展示了我們對分銷管道的積極管理，從而導致第三季末的通路庫存狀況非常精簡，僅為 1.5 個月，而我們的長期目標是 2.5 個月。

Through all of these proactive actions, we believe we will enter 2024 with a comparatively balanced customer inventory position with some remaining pockets of inventory digestion yet to occur. Hence, we will also begin to replenish the channel sometime in 2024. In terms of NXP's focus end markets for 2024, we are assuming global auto production to be up 1% as anticipated by NXP. We assume the mix shift towards semiconductor content rich, hybrid and battery electric vehicles continues and reaches about 40% of all cars produced in '24, up from 33% in 2023. This is very supportive of the NXP-specific secure content drivers, such as radar systems, electrification solutions and high-performance processes for software-defined vehicles.

透過所有這些積極行動，我們相信，進入 2024 年，我們將擁有相對平衡的客戶庫存狀況，並且一些剩餘的庫存消化尚未發生。因此，我們也將在 2024 年的某個時候開始補充管道。我們假設向半導體內容豐富的混合動力和電池電動車的混合轉變將繼續，並將達到 24 年生產的所有汽車的 40% 左右，高於 2023 年的 33%。

Turning to core Industrial. We see the trends, including especially content growth to be pretty similar to Automotive. In our Consumer IoT and Mobile business, after over a year of weak demand, we see an incrementally improving environment. Finally, we do believe the weak demand in Communication Infrastructure and Other likely continues as we have associated to pent-up demand in our secured cards business, anticipated a weak environment in mobile base station build-outs and expect end of life in some of our network edge products.

轉向核心工業。我們看到的趨勢，尤其是內容成長，與汽車產業非常相似。在我們的消費者物聯網和行動業務中，經過一年多的疲軟需求後，我們看到環境正在逐步改善。最後，我們確實相信通訊基礎設施和其他領域的需求疲軟可能會持續下去，因為我們已經將其與擔保卡業務中被壓抑的需求聯繫起來，預計行動基地台建設的環境將很疲軟，並且預計我們的一些網路邊緣產品的生命週期將會結束。

When putting it all together, netting the positives against the loan headwinds, we continue to navigate a soft landing for the business and anticipate a return to year-on-year revenue growth throughout 2024. For the first quarter, we expect seasonality to return more to the typical pre-COVID seasonal panels in a range of down mid- to upper-single digits sequentially. And now I would like to pass the call to you, Bill, for a review of our financial performance.

綜合考慮所有因素，扣除貸款逆風帶來的積極影響，我們將繼續推動業務軟著陸，並預計 2024 年全年收入將恢復同比增長。現在我想把電話轉給你，比爾，請你檢視一下我們的財務表現。

Well, thank you, Kurt, and good morning to everyone on today's call. As Kurt has already covered the drivers of the revenue during Q3 and provided the revenue outlook for Q4, I will move to the financial highlights.

好吧，謝謝你，庫爾特，今天電話會議中的每個人都早安。由於 Kurt 已經介紹了第三季的收入驅動因素並提供了第四季度的收入前景，因此我將轉到財務亮點。

Overall, our Q3 financial performance was good. Revenue and non-GAAP gross profit were modestly above the midpoint of guidance, with solid gross profit fall through. Now moving to the details of Q3. Total revenue was $3.4 billion, $34 million above the midpoint of the guidance and essentially flat year-on-year. We generated $2.01 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 58.5% up 50 basis points year-on-year and 10 basis points above the midpoint of the guidance range, driven by the fall-through on higher revenues.

總體而言，我們第三季的財務表現良好。收入和非公認會計準則毛利略高於預期中位數，但毛利大幅下降。現在轉到第三季的細節。總收入為 34 億美元，比預期中位數高出 3,400 萬美元，與去年同期基本持平。我們實現了 20.1 億美元的非公認會計準則毛利潤，報告非公認會計準則毛利率為 58.5%，比去年同期上升 50 個基點，比指導範圍的中點高出 10 個基點，這得益於收入增加帶來的收入下降。

Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $803 million or 23.4% of revenue, up $73 million year-on-year and up $32 million from Q2. When compared to the midpoint of guidance, this is a miss of $18 million, where $14 million is due to our potential unforecasted legal liability and the remainder from higher variable compensation. From a total operating profit perspective, non-GAAP operating profit was $1.2 billion, and non-GAAP operating margin was 35%. This was down 190 basis points year-on-year and slightly below the midpoint of the guidance range due to the previously noted potential legal liability, which created a 40 basis point headwind to non-GAAP operating margin.

非公認會計準則總營業費用為 8.03 億美元，佔營收的 23.4%，比去年同期增加 7,300 萬美元，比第二季增加 3,200 萬美元。與預期中位數相比，這一數字缺口為 1800 萬美元，其中 1400 萬美元是由於我們潛在的未預測到的法律責任，其餘部分則來自更高的可變薪酬。從總營業利潤來看，非GAAP營業利潤為12億美元，非GAAP營業利益率為35%。由於先前提到的潛在法律責任，該數字較上年同期下降了 190 個基點，略低於指導範圍的中點，這給非 GAAP 營業利潤率帶來了 40 個基點的阻力。

Non-GAAP interest expense was $65 million, with non-GAAP income tax provision of $168 million, reflecting a non-GAAP effective tax rate of 14.8%, which is favorable versus our guidance range of 16% to 17%. Noncontrolling interest was $5 million and stock-based compensation, which is not included in the non-GAAP earnings, was $103 million. Changing together, this resulted in a non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.70, $0.10 above the midpoint of the guidance. Now turning to the changes in our cash and debt. Total debt at the end of Q3 was $11.17 billion, flat sequentially. The ending cash position was $4.04 billion, up $179 million sequentially due to the cumulative affected capital returns improved working capital metrics, flat CapEx investments and positive cash generation during Q3.

非公認會計準則利息支出為 6,500 萬美元，非公認會計準則所得稅準備金為 1.68 億美元，反映非公認會計準則有效稅率為 14.8%，與我們 16% 至 17% 的指導範圍相比較為有利。非控制權益為 500 萬美元，未包含在非 GAAP 收益中的股票薪酬為 1.03 億美元。綜合起來，非公認會計準則每股收益為 3.70 美元，比預期中位數高出 0.10 美元。現在來談談我們的現金和債務的變化。第三季末的總負債為 111.7 億美元，與上季持平。期末現金狀況為 40.4 億美元，比上一季增加 1.79 億美元，原因是累計受影響的資本回報、營運資本指標改善、資本支出投資持平以及第三季產生正現金。

The resulting net debt was $7.13 billion and we exited the quarter with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $5.38 billion. The ratio of net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at the end of Q3 was 1.3x and the 12-month adjusted EBITDA interest coverage ratio was 19.9x. During Q3, we repurchased $306 million of our shares and paid $262 million in cash dividends. Taken together, we returned $568 million to our owners in the quarter, which represented 72% of non-GAAP free cash flow and 81% on a trailing 12-month period. Furthermore, subsequent to the end of Q3, we continue to execute our share repurchase program, buying an incremental $124 million or approximately 658,000 shares through Friday, November 3.

由此產生的淨債務為 71.3 億美元，而我們在本季結束時的過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 為 53.8 億美元。第三季末的淨負債與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.3 倍，過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 利息覆蓋率為 19.9 倍。第三季度，我們回購了價值 3.06 億美元的股票，並支付了 2.62 億美元的現金股利。總體而言，本季我們向股東返還了 5.68 億美元，佔非 GAAP 自由現金流的 72%，佔過去 12 個月自由現金流的 81%。此外，在第三季結束後，我們繼續執行股票回購計劃，截至 11 月 3 日星期五，增量回購金額為 1.24 億美元，約 658,000 股。

Now turning to working capital metrics. Days of inventory was 134 days, a decrease of 3 days sequentially and distribution channel inventory was 1.5 months or approximately 45 days, down about 4 days from the second quarter. When combined, this represents approximately 179 days or a 7-day decline from the prior quarter. We continue to be laser focused on tightly controlling our channel inventory levels, while leveraging our balance sheet strength to whole product in die form for quick turnaround as demand materializes. Days receivable were 25 days, down 4 days sequentially and days payable were 60 days, a sequential decrease of 3 days. Taken together, the cash conversion cycle was 99 days, an improvement of 4 days versus the prior quarter.

現在轉向營運資本指標。庫存天數為 134 天，季減 3 天，分銷通路庫存為 1.5 個月或約 45 天，季減約 4 天。綜合起來，這相當於比上一季減少了約 179 天，或 7 天。我們將繼續集中精力嚴格控制我們的通路庫存水平，同時利用我們的資產負債表優勢，以模具形式提供整個產品，以便在需求出現時快速週轉。應收帳款天數為 25 天，季減 4 天，應付帳款天數 60 天，月減 3 天。整體來看，現金轉換週期為 99 天，較上一季改善了 4 天。

Cash flow from operations was $988 million and net CapEx was $200 million or approximately 6% of revenue, slightly better than our guidance of 7% resulting in non-GAAP free cash flow of $788 million or 23% of Q3 revenue, which is up from 17% in the prior quarter. On a trailing 12-month basis, this represents a 20% non-GAAP free cash flow margin.

營運現金流為 9.88 億美元，淨資本支出為 2 億美元，約佔營收的 6%，略高於我們預期的 7%，導致非 GAAP 自由現金流為 7.88 億美元，佔第三季營收的 23%，高於上一季的 17%。以過去 12 個月計算，這代表著 20% 的非 GAAP 自由現金流利潤率。

Overall, we continue to be focused on driving non-GAAP free cash flow margin to greater than 25%, a level we have demonstrated in the past and a level we believe we can achieve in the future. Turning now to our expectations for the fourth quarter. As Kurt mentioned, we anticipate Q4 revenue to be $3.4 billion, plus or minus $100 million. At the midpoint of our revenue outlook, this is up about 3% year-on-year and down about 1% versus Q3.

總體而言，我們將繼續致力於將非公認會計準則自由現金流利潤率提高到 25% 以上，這是我們過去已經展示的水平，也是我們相信未來能夠實現的水平。現在來談談我們對第四季的預期。正如 Kurt 所提到的，我們預計第四季的營收為 34 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元。在我們的營收預期中位數中，這一數字年增約 3%，環比第三季下降約 1%。

Furthermore, given our manufacturing cycle times, the current demand environment, and our lean channel inventory. Our guidance contemplates improving the channel inventory to 1.6-month level for Q4. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be flat sequentially at 58.5%, plus or minus 50 basis points as we continue to balance mix and internal utilizations. However, we do see slightly higher input costs from our suppliers. As a result, we remain focused on mitigating these higher input costs through a combination of productivity and passing higher input costs along to our customers. Operating expenses are expected to be $785 million, plus or minus about $10 million. Taken together, non-GAAP operating margin will be 35.4% at the midpoint. We expect non-GAAP financial expense to be $69 million and the non-GAAP tax will be $180 million or an effective non-GAAP tax rate of 15.9% of profit before tax.

此外，考慮到我們的製造週期、當前的需求環境和精益的通路庫存。我們的指導目標是將第四季的通路庫存提高到 1.6 個月的水平。由於我們繼續平衡產品組合和內部利用率，我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率將與上一季持平，為 58.5%，上下浮動 50 個基點。然而，我們確實發現供應商的投入成本略高。因此，我們仍將致力於透過提高生產力和將更高的投入成本轉嫁給客戶來降低這些更高的投入成本。預計營運費用為 7.85 億美元，上下浮動約 1,000 萬美元。綜合來看，非 GAAP 營業利益率中間值為 35.4%。我們預計非公認會計準則財務支出為 6,900 萬美元，非公認會計準則稅為 1.8 億美元，或有效非公認會計準則稅率為稅前利潤的 15.9%。

Non-controlling interest will be $6 million. For Q4, we suggest for modeling purposes, you use an average share count of 260 million shares and capital expenditures of 6% of revenue. We expect stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP guidance to be $106 million. Taken together, at the midpoint, implies a non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.65.

非控制權益為 600 萬美元。對於第四季度，出於建模目的，我們建議使用平均股數 2.6 億股和收入 6% 的資本支出。我們預計股票薪酬為 1.06 億美元，這未包含在我們的非 GAAP 指引中。綜合來看，中間值意味著非 GAAP 每股收益為 3.65 美元。

Now for 2024, non-GAAP modeling, we propose you to assume the following: we expect to increase channel inventory sometime in 2024 to support anticipated growth, ensure proper customer stock levels and to support our long-tail customers. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to remain at the high end of our long-term model, plus or minus the normal 50 basis points. Non-GAAP operating expenses, we plan to manage the business at or below the 23% of sales.

現在，對於 2024 年的非 GAAP 模型，我們建議您做出以下假設：我們預計在 2024 年的某個時候增加通路庫存，以支援預期的成長，確保適當的客戶庫存水準並支持我們的長尾客戶。我們預計非公認會計準則毛利率將保持在長期模型的高端，並上下浮動正常的 50 個基點。非GAAP營業費用，我們計劃將業務管理在銷售額的23%或以下。

For capital expenditures, we expect to stay within the long-term model of 6% to 8% of sales for stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP results, we suggest using approximately $450 million. And for non-GAAP taxes, we expect a 17% rate versus the prior view of 18%. So in closing, I would like to highlight what we shared last cycle. First, from a performance standpoint as we navigate a soft landing through a challenging and cyclical demand environment, we will continue to be disciplined to manage what is in our control and stay within our long-term financial model.

對於資本支出，我們預計將保持在銷售額 6% 至 8% 的長期模型內，用於股票薪酬，這不包括在我們的非 GAAP 結果中，我們建議使用約 4.5 億美元。對於非公認會計準則稅率，我們預期稅率為 17%，而先前的預期為 18%。最後，我想強調一下我們在上個週期所分享的內容。首先，從業績的角度來看，當我們在充滿挑戰和週期性的需求環境中實現軟著陸時，我們將繼續嚴格管理我們能控制的事物並保持我們的長期財務模型。

Second, operationally, the Q4 guidance assumes internal factory utilization will be in the low- to mid-70s range. A level we expect to hold until internal inventory normalizes.

其次，從營運角度來看，第四季指引假設內部工廠利用率將處於 70% 至 75% 的中低水準。我們預計將保持這一水平直到內部庫存恢復正常。

And lastly, we plan to hold more cash on the balance sheet to enable greater flexibility. We also plan to retire the $1 billion March 2024 debt tranche, when it comes due with our cash on hand, which will result in an improved gross debt leverage ratio below the current 2.1x level today. Finally, we will remain active repurchasing our shares. I would like to now turn it back over to the operator for your questions.

最後，我們計劃在資產負債表上持有更多現金，以實現更大的靈活性。我們還計劃在 2024 年 3 月到期時用手頭上的現金償還 10 億美元的債務，這將使總債務槓桿率降至目前 2.1 倍的水平以下。最後，我們將繼續積極回購我們的股票。現在我想將電話轉回給接線員來回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

Congrats on navigating the choppy times. Kurt, for my first question, I just wanted to talk about the linearity of demand. That was very helpful that you gave the fourth quarter and so much details on the first quarter in 2024. But in general, it seems like you're refilling the channel a little bit in your outer quarter guide and the channel was a big driver sequentially in the third quarter. So how are we to think about the channel directionally from here, appreciating, of course, that it's already at the low end of the range. What are the puts and takes in your decisions to seemingly slowly refill that?

恭喜您渡過了艱難時期。庫爾特，對於我的第一個問題，我只想談談需求的線性。您提供的有關第四季度以及 2024 年第一季的詳細資訊非常有幫助。那麼，我們如何從這裡考慮渠道的方向性，當然，要認識到它已經處於範圍的低端。在看似緩慢地補充這些資金的決定中，您付出了哪些努力和代價？

Thanks, Ross. Let me indeed, first of all, say that these fluctuations between 1.5 and 1.6 are partially beyond our control, to be honest. I mean it just ticked down a little in the third quarter, we think we are anyway sitting at the absolute minimum where it should be. So we felt it is appropriate to move it back to the 1.6 level. What I think is more important in the bigger context of that general management is that over 1.5 years now, I would say, we have kept it intentionally very, very lean, always around this 1.5 or 1.6 level in a dropping environment.

謝謝，羅斯。首先，我要說的是，老實說，1.5 和 1.6 之間的波動在某種程度上是我們無法控制的。我的意思是，它在第​​三季度只是略有下降，我們認為無論如何我們都處於應有的最低水平。因此我們認為將其移回 1.6 等級是合適的。我認為，在整體管理的大背景下，更重要的是，在過去的一年半里，我們一直有意將產量保持在非常非常精簡的水平，在下滑的環境中始終保持在 1.5 或 1.6 的水平上。

So in an environment, where demand was weak and rather dropping. Going forward, as I said in my prepared remarks, we think the environment is more stable or up again, which is why we did say that at some point through next year, we will also start to refill the channel again. The speed of that and the magnitude will really depend on the environment. We will not go higher than the 2.4 or 2.5 level, which is our long-term target and which has been our long-term target in the past.

因此，在需求疲軟甚至下降的環境下。展望未來，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們認為環境將更加穩定或再次好轉，這就是為什麼我們確實說過，在明年的某個時候，我們也將開始再次填充管道。其速度和幅度實際上取決於環境。我們不會超過2.4或2.5的水平，這是我們的長期目標，也是我們過去的長期目標。

If there was a sharp rebound in China and we said the same last quarter, then of course, we would probably go back relatively quickly. But in a more stable environment as we anticipate until next year, we will start to refill next year, Ross, because we think that is important to make sure we hold competitiveness in the channel for our long-term customers. So there will be a moment, where it will be just important in a stable environment to have enough product on the shelf to remain competitive.

如果中國經濟出現強勁反彈，而且我們上個季度也說過同樣的話，那麼當然，我們可能會相對較快地回歸。但是，正如我們所預期的，到明年，在一個更穩定的環境中，我們將在明年開始補充庫存，羅斯，因為我們認為這對於確保我們在長期客戶的管道中保持競爭力非常重要。因此，在穩定的環境中，貨架上有足夠的產品以保持競爭力非常重要。

I guess as my follow-up, 1 for Bill. On the gross margin side, you guys have done a great job keeping it at the high end of the range despite all the puts and takes on the end markets and the weakness overall. What are the puts and takes for next year? And you said that you'd stay at the high end of the range, plus or minus fill through that period, also impressive. Is that just the structural new base for the company? How are you able to keep it at the 58% range versus the 55% to 58% that you have given at your last analyst meeting?

我想作為我的後續行動，1 代表比爾。在毛利率方面，儘管終端市場有許多利弊，且整體市場表現疲軟，但你們仍出色地將毛利率維持在高水準。明年的利弊是什麼？而且您說過，您會保持在該範圍的高端，加減填充在該期間，也令人印象深刻。這只是公司架構上的新基礎嗎？您如何能夠將其保持在 58% 的範圍內，而不是上次分析師會議上給出的 55% 到 58%？

Sure. So let me address the current -- the last couple of quarters. As mentioned, our internal utilizations are running, call it, low- to mid-70s and that headwind is being offset by our distribution mix. It's a bit richer in margin and that represented about 57% of our composition of revenue of this quarter, which is up from 51%. So there's sort of offsetting each other in the short term, and we see the same to occur in Q4.

當然。所以讓我談談當前——過去幾季的情況。如上所述，我們的內部利用率正在運行，可以說，70年代中期，而這一不利因素正在被我們的分銷組合所抵消。它的利潤率略高一些，約佔本季營收的 57%，高於 51%。因此，短期內它們會相互抵消，我們預計第四季度也會出現相同的情況。

Now if we look ahead, what are some of the levers that perhaps can drive gross margin higher over the long term. And I think we've talked about these in the past. But again, higher revenues over our fixed cost structure is one. Obviously, we're going to have continued productivity gains clearly, eventually, we're going to demand from our internal factory standpoint. So think about higher utilizations.

現在，如果我們展望未來，有哪些因素可能在長期內提高毛利率？我想我們過去已經談論過這些了。但同樣，我們的固定成本結構的收入更高是其中之一。顯然，我們的生產率將會持續提高，最終，我們將從內部工廠的角度來要求。因此請考慮提高利用率。

Kurt talked about next share, we're seeing neutral pricing and then really, I think a focus more longer term is expanding our long-tail customers in the mass market. And then eventually, what we've always talked about with where our R&D investment scale is that ramp of our new product introduction. So some of those levers that we have to get us comfortable on continuing to bring gross margin above our current high end of our model. Again, 58% is not the end goal. It's not our final destination. We're going to continue to work on this from a company initiative.

庫爾特談到了下一個份額，我們看到了中性的定價，然後實際上，我認為更長期的重點是擴大我們在大眾市場的長尾客戶。最終，我們一直在談論的研發投資規模就是我們新產品推出的成長點。因此，我們必須採取一些措施，才能讓我們安心地繼續將毛利率提高到我們模型的當前高端以上。再說一遍，58% 並不是最終目標。這不是我們的最終目的地。我們將從公司的角度繼續致力於此。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券的 Vivek Arya。

Kurt, you mentioned you expect to grow through '24, but how do we square that with just 1% or so Auto production growth that is lower than the mid-single-digit Auto production growth that we saw in '23 when your overall sales were flat. So I guess the question is, what content lift did you see in '23? And what are your assumptions for Automotive content growth in '24.

庫爾特，你提到你預計到24年會實現成長，但我們如何才能將其與僅有1%左右的汽車產量增長率相平衡，這一增長率低於我們在23年看到的中等個位數的汽車產量增長率，當時你們的整體銷售額持平。所以我想問題是，你在 23 年看到了什麼內容提升？您對 24 年汽車內容成長的假設是什麼？

Yes, it's clearly, that the revenue is driven and the demand is driven by content increase, much more go than SAAR. At the same time, you are, of course, right, the latest SAAR update for this year, which I saw is actually almost 8% up over 2022, which is by the way, every quarter that was taken up further. So (inaudible) this year. And yes, indeed, also the forecast, which we use from S&P for next year, I think it's just 1% up. So it's almost flat next year. Now if you take NXP automotive revenue, Vivek, if you take our Q4 guidance, then this year's annual revenue growth of NXP will be like 9% or so. So 9% automotive NXP in '23 over '22. With that number, I believe we are under-shipping demand. And we are actually intentionally under-shipping demand because as we've always said, we did not want to create this wave of inventory ahead of us, which will lead to a cliff to drop down from.

是的，很明顯，收入是由內容增加所驅動的，需求也是由內容增加所驅動的，這比 SAAR 更為明顯。同時，你當然是對的，我看到今年最新的 SAAR 更新實際上比 2022 年增長了近 8%，順便說一句，每個季度都在進一步增長。所以（聽不清楚）今年。是的，確實，根據標準普爾對明年的預測，我認為成長率只有 1%。因此明年幾乎持平。現在，如果您以恩智浦汽車收入為例，Vivek，如果您以我們的第四季度指引為準，那麼恩智浦今年的年收入成長率將在 9% 左右。因此，23 年汽車領域 NXP 的份額比 22 年增長了 9%。從這個數字來看，我相信我們的出貨量低於需求。我們實際上是故意減少出貨量，因為正如我們一直在說的，我們不想製造這波庫存，否則會導致懸崖式下滑。

That's why, since early in the year, we have tried to make sure to not enforce NCNR to an extent that we would not build excess inventory. And as we discussed with Ross just a minute ago, we kept to see the channel very lean in mind view. Also in Automotive, 40% of our revenue goes through the channel. So the channel is pretty significant part also of the Automotive business. So what I mean to say here, Vivek, is that we think we are through this inventory digestion at some point next year, which means the revenue growth in our automotive business will return more to levels, which are reflecting the true demand. I can't tell you when exactly that's going to be next year, but maybe it's safe to assume that through the first half, we are still a little bit working ourselves through this inventory digestion.

這就是為什麼從今年年初以來，我們就一直努力確保不執行 NCNR，以免產生過剩庫存。正如我們剛才與羅斯討論的那樣，我們始終認為該管道的思維非常精簡。此外，在汽車領域，我們 40% 的收入來自於通路。因此，通路也是汽車業務相當重要的一部分。所以，維韋克，我在這裡想說的是，我們認為明年某個時候我們將完成庫存消化，這意味著我們的汽車業務收入成長將恢復到反映真實需求的水平。我無法告訴你明年具體什麼時候會出現這種情況，但可以肯定地說，在上半年，我們仍在努力消化庫存。

But in the second half, we should be clean from that. Including then the replenishment of the channel, and that's why I make the statement of growing year-on-year throughout the year every quarter. By the way, that statement was relative to the whole company. We discussed it now for Automotive, but in principle, that whole pattern, which I just explained, is also true for entire NXP. And that's why we continue to be confident that we are probably managing that so-called soft landing. Since we have just anticipated this inventory issue relatively early, have proactively managed it, which means we will not run into this cliff and then resume into year-over-year growth as early as quarter 1 of next year.

但到了下半場，我們應該能夠擺脫這個困境。包括通路的補充，這就是為什麼我會做出全年每季都比去年同期成長的聲明。順便說一句，這句話是針對整個公司的。我們現在討論了汽車領域，但原則上，我剛才解釋的整個模式也適用於整個 NXP。這就是為什麼我們仍然相信我們可能正在實現所謂的軟著陸。由於我們相對較早地預見了這一庫存問題，並積極地對其進行了管理，這意味著我們不會陷入這種懸崖，並最早在明年第一季恢復同比增長。

For my follow-up, just on '24, thanks for giving us the high-level views. So Q1, you mentioned normal seasonal. What is normal seasonal for your Automotive business sequentially in Q1? And if I kind of just expand that question overall to '24. In your presentation, you kept your '21 to '24 model, right? That suggests that even at the low end of that 8% to 12% CAGR, your '24 sales should be in the neighborhood of $14 billion or so. Is that an useful assumption as we think about overall '24. So just Q1 Autos and overall '24 sales.

對於我的後續問題，就在‘24’上，感謝您給我們高層次的觀點。所以 Q1，您提到了正常的季節性。第一季您的汽車業務的季節性變化如何？如果我將這個問題整體擴展到 24 。在您的演示中，您保留了 21 至 24 年的模型，對嗎？這表明，即使在 8% 到 12% 的複合年增長率的低​​端，您的 24 年銷售額也應該在 140 億美元左右。當我們考慮整體‘24’時，這是一個有用的假設嗎？因此僅限第一季汽車銷售和 24 年整體銷售。

Yes, look, Vivek, I think we really went quite far in this call, given the turmoil around us and some of the uncertainty created by some of our peer companies, we went quite far here in order to give quite some color on next year. We really don't want to go down the path of providing that color by segment, by revenue segment by quarter. There will be just 1 shot too far. So stay with me with what I said of a more seasonal pattern for Q1 for the whole company, which was a mid- to upper single-digit sequential decline, which is, by the way, what we've always had pre-COVID. So there's nothing really strange about this in a normal pricing environment with normalized [3x] everything pretty much back to normal.

是的，維韋克，看，我認為我們在這次電話會議中確實走得很遠，考慮到我們周圍的動盪以及一些同行公司造成的不確定性，我們在這裡走得很遠，以便為明年的情況提供一些線索。我們確實不想走按細分市場、按季度按收入細分市場提供顏色的路子。只會有 1 次射門太遠。所以，請繼續聽我講，整個公司第一季的業績呈現更具季節性的模式，即環比下降中到上個位數，順便說一句，這也是新冠疫情之前我們一直經歷的。因此，在正常的定價環境中，這並不奇怪，因為標準化 [3x] 一切幾乎都恢復正常。

The other half of your question was about the commitment, which we have given in, I think, in November '21 in our Investor Day about the 3-year growth, which indeed was a 8% to 12% corridor. And yes, Vivek. We stand behind that corridor. We do stand behind hitting that corridor of 8% to 12%, like all the rest of the model, by the way. I mean, Bill just talked about the gross margin being more at the high end of them all. On the revenue, we will also be in the corridor of 8% to 12%, where we will be in the corridor. It really depends on a couple of macroeconomic factors, including especially more of a return of China and the timing thereof which is very hard to judge. So we just can't go there. But that should not get us either way out of that corridor. We should hit it.

你問題的另一半是關於承諾的，我想，我們在 11 月的投資者日上已經承諾了 3 年的成長目標，這確實是 8% 到 12% 的區間。是的，維維克。我們站在那條走廊後面。順便說一句，我們確實支持達到 8% 到 12% 的目標，就像模型的所有其他部分一樣。我的意思是，比爾剛才談到毛利率處於所有利率中較高的水平。在收入方面，我們也將處於8％至12％的區間內。這實際上取決於一些宏觀經濟因素，尤其是中國經濟的回歸及其時機，這些因素很難判斷。所以我們不能去那裡。但無論如何，這都不該幫助我們走出困境。我們應該擊中它。

Our next question comes from the line of William Stein with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

First, Kurt, I think it was in your comments. I'm not sure, if it was restricted to your outlook of EVs, specifically, but maybe more of this electrified drivetrain sort of hybrids maybe is what you were talking about. But it still seems like a big jump to me next year. And would we consider the overall EV market has won North American OEM that's been growing very quickly and there's 1 Chinese maybe many, but 1 really big Chinese OEM has been doing very well. But among the sort of traditional multinational OEMs, their EV sales have been really weak. And I wonder, if your outlook for next year embeds a view that the multinationals are going to do better in this category or if the companies that have had success only get bigger? And then I have a follow-up.

首先，庫爾特，我認為這是在你的評論中。我不確定這是否僅限於您對電動車的看法，但也許您所談論的更多是這種電動傳動系統類型的混合動力汽車。但明年對我來說仍是一個很大的飛躍。我們是否會認為整個電動車市場已經贏得了北美 OEM 的青睞，北美 OEM 一直在快速增長，而且中國 OEM 數量可能很多，但真正大型的中國 OEM 表現非常好。但在傳統的跨國原始設備製造商中，他們的電動車銷售一直很疲軟。我想知道，您對明年的展望是否包含這樣的觀點：跨國公司將在這一類別中表現得更好，或者那些成功的公司只會變得更大？然後我有一個後續問題。

Thanks, Will. That I see where you are going and let me try to be as clear as possible. First, yes, I did talk about what the category is called xEVs. That is a combination of the hybrid electric and the fully battery electric vehicles. It's a category used by S&P. So it's our invention, but specifically every car, which has either only an electric drivetrain or also an electric drivetrain next to a combustion engine drivetrain. That's what matters for us because that is the stuff which calls for more semiconductors. And yes, we do believe it continues to grow quite sharply. So this year, the latest forecast is, and since we are in November, I guess, it's quite accurate. 33% of the total car production, which is in the order of, I think, 89 million units this year, 33% of that 89 million cars produced this year are xEV.

謝謝，威爾。我知道你要說什麼，讓我盡可能清楚地解釋一下。首先，是的，我確實談論過什麼是 xEVs 類別。這是混合動力汽車和純電動車的結合。這是標準普爾使用的類別。所以這是我們的發明，但具體來說，每輛汽車要么只配備電動傳動系統，要么在內燃機傳動系統旁邊配備電動傳動系統。這對我們來說很重要，因為這需要更多的半導體。是的，我們確實相信它會繼續急劇增長。所以今年的最新預測是，而且由於我們已經進入 11 月，我想它是相當準確的。今年，汽車總產量約為 8,900 萬輛，其中 xEV 佔 33%。

And that number is forecast to grow to 41%, which is a 29% year-on-year growth. So if you go in absolute terms, then there will be 29% more of these xEVs next year than this year. Now where does it come from? Look, well, I think it is a little misleading to look at this from a U.S. perspective. The U.S. car producers are actually from a global perspective, relatively small. Europe is a little better, but where really the main volume is driven, that is China. And on top of that, China is the one which is also driving the dynamic now in the electric vehicle space.

預計這一數字將增長至 41%，年增 29%。因此，如果從絕對值來看，明年的 xEV 數量將比今年多 29%。那麼它是從哪裡來的呢？嗯，我認為從美國的角度來看這個問題有點誤導。從全球角度來看，美國汽車生產商的規模實際上相對較小。歐洲稍好一些，但真正的主要銷售來源是中國。除此之外，中國也是目前電動車領域發展的推手。

So I think if you just take some of the commentary and some of the adjustment in investment programs, which were published of U.S. companies, then that is not representative of what is going to happen on a global level. But long story short, yes, we do believe this xEV categories moving to solid 40%, 41% of the global format here, which is obviously very supportive to our semiconductor content growth, by the way, beyond pure electrification systems, as we discussed earlier, those cars tend to be higher features in electronics above everything. So also ADAS systems like our RADAR and the whole SDV software-defined vehicle introduction happens faster with these cars, which is why it is also important to our revenue. We believe in that we do not see a massive slowing in the electric vehicle penetration.

因此我認為，如果僅僅看美國公司發布的一些評論和投資計畫調整，那麼這並不能代表全球層面上將要發生的情況。但長話短說，是的，我們確實相信這個 xEV 類別將佔據全球份額的 40% 到 41%，這顯然非常有利於我們半導體內容的增長，順便說一句，除了純電氣化系統之外，正如我們之前討論過的，這些汽車往往在電子產品方面具有更高的功能。因此，我們的 RADAR 等 ADAS 系統以及整個 SDV 軟體定義汽車的引入也在這些汽車上更快地進行，這也是為什麼它對我們的收入也很重要。我們相信，電動車普及率不會大幅放緩。

That's really helpful. And you sort of led me into the follow-up, which is Ultra-Wideband. I think you were early to see this among other trends, but I'm hoping you can update us as to how you're seeing uptake in that product both in automotive and handsets.

這真的很有幫助。您引導我進入後續話題，即超寬頻。我認為您很早就在其他趨勢中看到了這一點，但我希望您能向我們介紹您對該產品在汽車和手機領域的應用情況。

On the handset side, nothing really new. We are still waiting for a bit more dynamic in the Android space, which has nothing to do with Ultra-Wideband, which is more a mobile-wide industry situation, where you might have seen in our guide for Mobile for the fourth quarter, excuse me, we are again sequentially up a little in Mobile, which is also driven by Android. So given our very lean inventory also in Android space, we think if there is now a bit more dynamic in the Android space, we're going to benefit from it. And with that will provide us because it's going to be proportional then up.

在手機方面，並沒有什麼新鮮事。我們仍在等待 Android 領域的更多動態，這與超寬頻無關，這更多的是整個行動產業的情況，您可能已經在我們的第四季行動指南中看到，對不起，我們在行動領域再次環比成長，這也是由 Android 推動的。因此，考慮到我們在 Android 領域的庫存也非常少，我們認為，如果 Android 領域現在有更多的活力，我們將從中受益。這將為我們提供，因為它將按比例增加。

In the Auto space, we feel very good. So we are ahead of what we wanted to achieve in Ultra-Wideband. So we have, I think, something like 7 platforms in production. So there are 7 car platforms, which are in production with our Ultra-Wideband automotive product.

在汽車領域，我們感覺非常好。因此，我們在超寬頻領域已經提前實現了預期目標。所以我認為我們目前有大約 7 個平台正在生產中。因此，有 7 個汽車平台正在採用我們的超寬頻汽車產品進行生產。

To my knowledge, something like 18 to 20 new platforms are awarded or 18 of 20 are rewarded to NXP. So there is 2 small platforms, which have knocked down to NXP out of 20. Actually, we rejected them because they were under the security standards which we want to ship and would have been largely dilutive. So that means overall, the momentum in Ultra-Wideband Automotive is very, very good.

據我所知，大約有 18 到 20 個新平台獲得獎勵，或其中 18 個獎勵給了 NXP。因此，有 2 個小平台，在 20 個平台中，NXP 被淘汰。所以整體而言，超寬頻車的發展勢頭非常非常好。

Our next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的 Stacy Rasgon。

I wanted to go back to the channel inventory. Is the amount that you have to ship still $500 million? And would you still grow year-over-year in 2024, if you didn't decide to fill up the channel next year?

我想回到通路庫存。你要運送的金額還是5億美元嗎？如果您明年不決定填滿管道，那麼 2024 年您還會實現同比增長嗎？

So the answer is yes and yes, Stacy. That delta between -- well, now it's actually even a little bit bigger, because to be perfectly precise, the $500 million, I think, came from 1.6 months going to 2.4. Since now we are at 1.5, it's probably even a little more than the $500 million, but that's -- it's immaterial. So the answer here is yes. That is.

所以答案是肯定的，是的，史黛西。兩者之間的差異——嗯，現在實際上甚至更大了一點，因為準確地說，我認為 5 億美元是從 1.6 個月增加到 2.4 個月的。由於現在我們已經達到了 1.5，所以可能還會比 5 億美元略多一點，但這並不重要。所以答案是肯定的。那是。

Secondly, no, we do not need the $500 million growth next year because that whole channel replenishment next year is something we will do some time to some amount. So that cannot be the basis of a guide for next year.

其次，不，我們不需要明年 5 億美元的成長，因為明年整個通路的補充是我們會在某個時間完成到一定數量的事情。因此這不能作為明年指南的基礎。

Got it. For my follow-ups, I just wanted to ask about some of the geographical macro trends that you mentioned. I found it a little confusing. It sounded like you thought China was getting better. But then you said next year, like where you land in the guidance for the full year depending on China and getting better. We're not hearing from any of your competitors that like China or anything else is getting better.

知道了。對於我的後續問題，我只是想問您提到的一些地理宏觀趨勢。我覺得有點困惑。聽起來你認為中國正在變得更好。但是您說明年，全年業績指引將取決於中國的情況，而且情況會越來越好。我們沒有聽到你們的任何競爭對手說中國或其他任何方面正在變得更好。

I'm just -- can you give us a little more color on what you're seeing by geography? And maybe like what do you think the sources of change of the discrepancy? Why do you guys see things improving in an overall market where you still sound like fairly cautious and your competitors certainly all sound fairly cautious.

我只是—您能否從地理角度向我們詳細介紹您所看到的情況？您認為造成這種差異的原因是什麼？為什麼你們認為整個市場的情況有所改善，而你們聽起來仍然相當謹慎，而且你們的競爭對手肯定都聽起來相當謹慎。

Okay. So let me peel the onions, Stacy. First of all, maybe really on a company level. The reason why we do comparably better, if you look at the quarter, to our peers is, again, a soft lending navigation, which we have entered into already early this year and when you think about the channel already middle of last year. We have certainly shipped less over that period, Stacy.

好的。那麼，讓我來剝洋蔥吧，史黛西。首先，也許確實在公司層面。從本季來看，我們之所以比同業表現更好，是因為軟貸款導航，我們在今年年初就已進入這一領域，而從去年年中開始進入這一渠道。史黛西，那段時間我們的出貨量確實減少了。

And you find that if you compare our growth rates, say, a 3-year CAGR over the last 3 years versus some competitors, especially in Auto, and you see that even more sharply, if you look at this year's Auto growth, as I said earlier, which I think is 9%, we have undergrown competitors. And that undergrowth is still be that we ship less on inventory than we believe some of our peers have done. That, of course, also explains that going forward, we don't see this sharp decline. It's just a softer management through this cycle.

你會發現，如果你將我們的成長率（比如說過去 3 年的 3 年複合年增長率）與一些競爭對手（尤其是在汽車領域）進行比較，你會發現更加明顯的是，如果你看今年的汽車增長率，正如我之前所說的，我認為是 9%，我們的增長速度低於競爭對手。而且，我們認為，我們的庫存出貨量仍然低於一些同業。當然，這也解釋了為什麼未來我們不會看到這種急劇的下降。這只是在此週期中較為溫和的管理。

Now we do it very, very intentionally because we believe this is very beneficial to our gross margin trajectory, which is not going to suffer that part from under loading factories too hard. So that's actually, where the direction has been coming from.

現在我們非常有意地這樣做，因為我們相信這對我們的毛利率走勢非常有利，這不會因為工廠負荷過重而受到影響。事實上，這就是方向的來源。

Now on the geographic side, Stacy, you have to ask this because I do know that what we just guided, especially in Industrial IoT, and that is largely relative to China is very different to what you heard from a lot of peers. So I just want to repeat, we have both sequentially and year-on-year, we just guided quarter 4 up by a high single-digit percentage, which is in sharp contrast to what several of our competitors have said.

現在就地理方面而言，史黛西，你必須問這個問題，因為我知道我們剛剛指導的內容，特別是在工業物聯網領域，這很大程度上與中國有關，與你從許多同行那裡聽到的非常不同。因此，我只想重複一遍，無論是環比還是同比，我們都預計第四季度的業績將增長一個高個位數百分比，這與我們的幾個競爭對手的說法形成了鮮明對比。

We simply think this is because we saw and had our trough in Industrial IoT already in quarter 1 of this calendar year. If you look at the numbers, we had a sharp drop there. We have made absolutely sure we would not increase inventories from there. So we are very close to the pulse of the demand. Since then, since Q1, we have been readily going up. And that was long messaging, which might have been a bit confusing around China. What I meant to say is we keep moving up incrementally quarter-to-quarter-to-quarter, while it's still down from a year-on-year perspective.

我們只是認為，這是因為我們已經在今年第一季看到並觸及了工業物聯網的低谷。如果你看一下數字，你會發現我們的情況急劇下降。我們絕對保證不會增加庫存。因此我們非常了解需求的脈動。自那時起，從第一季開始，我們的業績就穩定上升。這是一段很長的訊息，在中國可能會引起一些困惑。我的意思是，我們每季的業績都在持續穩定成長，但與去年同期相比仍然處於下降趨勢。

So we are still waiting, and we don't put this in any of our numbers on the big rebound in China, so that's not there. But incrementally, sequentially, it keeps improving. It has improved the past couple of quarters, and it does improve again now into quarter 4.

所以我們仍在等待，而且我們還沒有把這個數據納入中國經濟大幅反彈的數據中，所以這還不存在。但它會逐漸、連續地不斷改善。過去幾個季度，情況有所改善，現在進入第四季度，情況再次改善。

So that was the commentary on China. So it's cautiously positive. But again, it is simply because we had our trough there already in quarter 1, and it was a tough trough. I mean you just do the math. It was really deep. We just did it much earlier than many others.

這就是對中國的評論。因此，這是謹慎積極的。但同樣，這只是因為我們在第一季就已經處於低谷，而且是一個艱難的低谷。我的意思是你只要算一下就好了。它真的很深。我們只是比其他很多人都早得多做到了這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的加里莫布利 (Gary Mobley)。

Clearly, China is a market -- the China automotive market is a market, where you can be quite vertically integrated from the chip supply chain perspective. The market is large enough in terms of volumes, and there seems to be some ability to invest in that area by domestic China competitors. So my question for you is, how are you planning to retain your business with China automotive brands, when you probably long term see increasing competition from the domestic players?

顯然，中國是一個市場——中國汽車市場是一個可以從晶片供應鏈角度進行垂直整合的市場。從規模上看，該市場足夠大，而且中國國內的競爭對手似乎也有能力在該領域進行投資。所以我想問您，當您長期來看您可能會看到來自國內廠商的競爭日益激烈時，您打算如何保留與中國汽車品牌的業務往來？

Yes, Gary. First of all, it's our business. It has been our business and will continue to be our business to be competitive. So I come back to your specific point, but I mean in itself, it's nothing new. Our whole game, our whole priority in life is to be competitive, wherever we play. So in China, indeed, so far, the competitors, which we do see in the automotive space, which you focus on, have been largely our Western competitors plus relates from Japan.

是的，加里。首先，這是我們的業務。保持競爭力一直是我們的業務，並將繼續是我們的業務。所以我回到你的具體觀點，但我的意思是，它本身並沒有什麼新鮮事。我們的整個比賽、我們生活中的全部重點都是保持競爭力，無論我們在哪裡比賽。因此在中國，事實上到目前為止，我們看到的您關注的汽車領域的競爭對手主要是我們的西方競爭對手以及來自日本的競爭對手。

So we have hardly seen any local competition. So that's absolutely right. Now over the past, I'd say, couple of quarters, local competition in China came more up in low-end micro controllers. However, not in automotive. We haven't seen that entering into automotive at all. We also don't play that much in the low-end microcontroller space. So I mean, we've been seeing it, but it's not been a big event for us at all.

因此我們幾乎看不到任何本地競爭。所以這是絕對正確的。我想說，在過去的幾個季度裡，中國本地的競爭在低端微控制器領域更加激烈。然而，在汽車領域卻並非如此。我們根本沒有看到它進入汽車領域。我們在低階微控制器領域的涉足也不多。所以我的意思是，我們一直在看到它，但對我們來說這根本不是什麼大事。

Secondly, we do see a significant focus of local Chinese up-and-coming semiconductor companies on silicon carbide. I mean, I just spent 1.5 weeks in China, and it was obvious that there was massive investment and massive focus both in factory engineering and device engineering on silicon carbide in China. The good news, if you will, is that this doesn't really matter for us because that's one of the businesses we do not do. But I think it takes some of the focus away from the things we do. My personal take would be that probably going forward, we will see a start of more competition in the simpler analogic signal world in China, which would then probably also touch automotive.

其次，我們確實看到中國本土新興半導體公司對碳化矽的高度關注。我的意思是，我剛剛在中國待了一個半星期，明顯地發現中國在碳化矽的工廠工程和設備工程方面投入了大量的資金和精力。好消息是，這對我們來說並不重要，因為這是我們不會做的業務之一。但我認為這會分散我們對所做事情的注意力。我個人的看法是，未來我們可能會看到中國在更簡單的類比訊號領域開始出現更多的競爭，這可能也會影響汽車領域。

I don't say, Gary, we [halved it] yes, it's not like we are losing or being under pressure there today. But my take would be probably that's the one segment, where local Chinese semiconductor competitors will also focus on going forward. But again, I mean we've seen this in Korea. We've seen this in Japan in the past. So it's not the first time that we are confronted with local competitors. Yes, we stay paranoid about it, and we'll make sure that we have made an long-term strategies, which are on top of that.

我不是說，加里，我們（將比分減半）是的，這並不意味著我們今天在那裡輸了或承受了壓力。但我的看法是，這很可能是中國本土半導體競爭對手未來也將重點關注的領域。但我再說一遍，我們在韓國已經看過這種情況。我們過去在日本也見過這種情況。所以這不是我們第一次面對本地競爭對手。是的，我們對此保持警惕，並且我們將確保制定出最重要的長期策略。

If I follow-up, I wanted to ask about your purchase commitments. They've been running just below $4 billion for the past year, which is consistent with your flattish revenue, but it seems counterintuitive to this maybe the market dynamics that we're in, where you knew you'd have to put less of a commitment with your foundry partners. So maybe if you can just speak to the trends that you expect in your purchase commitments given the industry dynamics in '24?

如果我跟進的話，我想詢問您的購買承諾。過去一年，他們的營運額略低於 40 億美元，這與您持平的收入相一致，但這似乎與我們所處的市場動態相悖，您知道您必須減少對代工合作夥伴的承諾。那麼，您是否可以談談考慮到 24 年的行業動態，您預期的購買承諾趨勢？

Well, those are multi-year commitments. And so I guess you referred to, I think in the Q, we have something like a $3.9 billion commitment sitting, which is a multiyear commitment -- which is badly required and badly needed to support our growth over the next 5-plus years, which is what this is referring to.

嗯，這些都是多年的承諾。所以我想你提到了，我想在 Q 中，我們有大約 39 億美元的承諾，這是一項多年期承諾——這是我們迫切需要的，也迫切需要支持我們未來 5 年以上的增長，這就是這裡所指的。

So nothing unusual, nothing to worry about. It's just needed for those third-party foundry wafers, which continue to be very tight from a supply perspective and where we are glad we have these commitments to support actually the customer growth. This whole supply situation. Lead times have normalized. That does not mean, however, that we are in every place completely out of the woods. So there is still a couple of technology nodes, where we are actually short, which are also leading to quite a few complications.

所以沒有什麼不尋常的，沒什麼好擔心的。這只是第三方代工晶圓所需要的，從供應的角度來看，這些晶圓仍然非常緊張，我們很高興有這些承諾來實際支持客戶的成長。整個供應情況。交貨時間已正常化。但這並不意味著我們已經完全脫離了困境。因此，我們實際上還缺少一些技術節點，這也導致了許多複雜情況。

And there is quite a few others, and that's actually quite a few, where we are just fine, but where we have very stringent discussions with our customers that they need to make sure they give us mid- to long-term forecast because once the business comes back out of this inventory digestion cycle, we really have to make sure we don't enter into a similar period like we did in the second half of 2020. Which is not -- that's not far away from a supplier capability versus demand perspective. So that's why those long-term agreements, which we have there are really needed in the mix of our future revenue growth.

還有相當多的其他方面，實際上相當多，我們都做得很好，但我們與客戶進行了非常嚴格的討論，他們需要確保給我們提供中長期預測，因為一旦業務恢復到這個庫存消化週期，我們真的必須確保我們不會進入像 2020 年下半年那樣的時期。所以這就是為什麼我們所簽訂的這些長期協議對於我們未來的收入成長確實是必要的。

Our next question comes from the line of Joshua Buchalter with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Joshua Buchalter。

So I wanted to ask about the Auto outlook for next year. If we sort of layout the puts and takes, production growth will be lower, pricing neutral, it sounds like -- but you mentioned that 2023, there was some element of digestion. I mean as we stack up the content growth and sort of flat-to-up production and flat pricing, is there a reason -- how should we think about 2024 Auto growth for your business compared to 2023? Is there a reason it should be less than '23?

所以我想問一下明年汽車產業的前景。如果我們對投入和產出進行某種佈局，產量成長將會較低，價格聽起來是中性的——但你提到 2023 年，有一些消化因素。我的意思是，當我們將內容成長、生產平穩化和定價平穩化結合起來時，是否有一個原因——與 2023 年相比，我們應該如何看待 2024 年您的業務自動成長？它應該小於 ‘23 有什麼原因嗎？

Hey, Josh, good trial. As well, I have to say to, I think, Vivek earlier, I will not guide now on the segment level 2024, but I can give you at least some of the dynamics at work here. Yes, the SAAR -- the underlying SAAR growth next year is going to be less than it was this year. I think the mix of the penetration to xEV vehicles is better, as we discussed earlier, so going to the 40-plus percent level. So that's supported relative to this year. So it drives further content from where we are. I agree with your statement about more neutral pricing.

嘿，喬希，試驗得很好。另外，我想，早些時候 Vivek 曾說過，我現在不會就 2024 年的細分水平進行指導，但我至少可以給你介紹這裡的一些工作動態。是的，SAAR——明年的基本SAAR成長將低於今年。我認為，正如我們之前所討論的，xEV 汽車的滲透率會更好，因此會達到 40% 以上的水平。因此，相對於今年而言，這是有支持的。因此它可以從我們所在的位置推動更多內容。我同意您關於更中性定價的說法。

I think that's a fair assumption across the Board. And having said all of that, the only remaining piece next to our company-specific growth drivers, which are well in place. The only remaining piece is the cycle of inventory digestion and going back to normal end demand, which is [skating] through to our revenue.

我認為這是一個合理的假設。儘管如此，除了我們公司特定的成長動力之外，剩下的唯一一個部分已經到位了。剩下的唯一部分就是庫存消化週期和恢復正常的終端需求，這對我們的收入有影響。

Currently, I can only repeat it, we are undershipping demand. And again, we do this intentionally. We've done it for a few quarters already. It's going to be another couple of quarters, but maybe it's fair to assume by middle of next year that is behind us and then the revenue growth rates in automotive and everything else will go back much closer to what the real end demand is.

目前，我只能重複一遍，我們的出貨量不足。再次強調，我們是故意這麼做的。我們已經這樣做了幾個季度了。這還需要幾個季度的時間，但或許可以假設到明年年中，這種情況將會過去，屆時汽車和其他所有行業的收入成長率將更接近真正的最終需求。

Think about it this way. But so it is really misleading to just look at annual revenue growth in Automotive against SAAR because there is so many other things that work, especially this inventory cycle.

這樣想想吧。但僅僅看汽車業年收入成長與年均成長率相比確實會產生誤導，因為還有許多其他因素在起作用，尤其是這個庫存週期。

Understood. I can (inaudible) try. I guess I could ask it another way. You guys used to give a metric about I think it was 70% of your Auto business was tied to SAAR and the balance sort of to more content growth drivers. Maybe you can help quantify that mix or maybe give some directional drivers of things like radar, BMS, the S32 platform as you think [for Q4]?

明白了。我可以（聽不清楚）試試看。我想我可以用另一種方​​式問。你們過去常常給出一個指標，我認為是 70% 的汽車業務與 SAAR 相關，其餘部分則與更多的內容成長動力相關。也許您可以幫助量化這種組合，或者給出一些您認為的雷達、BMS、S32 平台等方向性的驅動因素（針對第四季度）？

That's not our model, Josh. That might be a model you made, but we haven't really said that. So what we do say and what fits also to your earlier question, is that we do see a continued strong content increase, which is independent of SAAR. And I think that is something which is probably in the 5% to 8% bracket. And that keeps going. Again, there is no reason why that would be slowing next year. But again, it is overlaid by the inventory cycle.

那不是我們的模型，喬希。那可能是您製作的模型，但我們實際上並沒有這麼說。因此，我們確實要說的是，而且也符合您之前的問題的是，我們確實看到內容持續強勁增長，這與 SAAR 無關。我認為這個比例大概在 5% 到 8% 之間。這種情況還在繼續。再次，沒有理由認為明年這一增長將會放緩。但同樣，它被庫存週期所覆蓋。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的Toshiya Hari。

Kurt, I wanted to ask about the pricing environment into '24 you mentioned that you expect a relatively neutral environment. When we spoke at our conference a couple of months ago, I think at the time, you sort of hinted that your expectation back then was for '24 pricing to be up a little bit more than what you saw in '21, but a little bit less than '22. So I guess there's been a slight change in how you think about pricing A, is that correct? And B, if so, is this more demand-driven? Or are you seeing lower input costs that's enabling you to keep pricing a little more flattish into '24?

庫爾特，我想問一下 24 年的定價環境，您提到您預計會有一個相對中性的環境。幾個月前，當我們在會議上發言時，我想當時您暗示過，您當時的預期是 24 年的價格將比 21 年的價格上漲得更高一些，但比 22 年的價格上漲得更低一些。所以我猜您對 A 的定價看法發生了些許變化，對嗎？ B，如果是這樣，這是否更多的是由需求驅動的？或者您看到更低的投入成本使得您能夠在2024年保持價格稍微平穩一些？

Yes, Toshiya. It's indeed, it's slightly better. It depends on which perspective you want to take on this relative to the input cost. So what we are seeing now is a slight increase in the input costs across everything. So it's really -- I mean, there is pieces, which are going up, unfortunately, quite a bit. Others are starting to come down. So but in the mix, we have a slight increase, on top of that, we put our productivity efforts, and that is what we need to pass on to our customers in terms of -- well, then you land it in a pretty neutral area.

是的，Toshiya。確實，稍微好一點。這取決於你想從哪個角度來看這個問題（相對於投入成本）。因此，我們現在看到的是所有領域的投入成本都略有增加。所以真的是—我的意思是，不幸的是，有些部分的價格上漲了不少。其他人也開始下降。所以，但在組合中，我們有略微的增長，最重要的是，我們投入了生產力的努力，這就是我們需要傳遞給客戶的 - 好吧，那麼你就把它放在一個相當中立的領域。

And that indeed is a touch better than what we discussed when we recently met in your conference. And yes, it is just important to see this indeed in the context of what you mentioned over the past couple of years because in my view, in '21, we increased, I think, by 2% for the whole company in '22 by 14%. This year, we're going to tell you in the Q4 earnings, what it will be, but indeed, it's again a solid number. And that comes then down next year to a more neutral, but I actually made the comment in my prepared remarks, because I wanted to make sure there is no confusion about this possibly going back, because we've had the question very often from analysts and investors. If not this whole pricing would be reverting back down all the way to the pre-COVID levels, it is not. I just want to be very clear. It's just neutral this coming year, which is fine from our perspective.

這確實比我們最近在你們的會議上討論的內容要好一些。是的，確實，從您提到的過去幾年的背景來看這一點很重要，因為在我看來，在 21 年，我們整個公司的銷售額增長了 2%，在 22 年增長了 14%。今年，我們將在第四季的收益中告訴您這個數字，但事實上，這又是一個可靠的數字。那麼明年的情況就會變得更加中立，但實際上我在準備好的發言中已經發表了這樣的評論，因為我想確保不會出現這種可能倒退的混淆，因為分析師和投資者經常向我們提出這個問題。如果不是這樣，整個價格就會回落到疫情之前的水平，但事實並非如此。我只是想把事情說清楚。明年的情況將保持中性，從我們的角度來看這是好的。

Great. That's very helpful. And then as my follow-up, you're guiding your comps and other business down, I guess, upper teens on a sequential basis in Q4. Is that primarily the base station business and the weakness in that market sort of catching up to you guys? Or is there something more to it? And is it fair to say that Q4 is the bottom for that market? Or could things stay relatively weak into the first half of next year?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後作為我的後續問題，您預計您的同店銷售額和其他業務在第四季度將環比下降，大概在15%以上。這主要是因為基地台業務以及該市場的疲軟對你們造成了影響嗎？或者還有什麼其他原因？那麼可以說第四季是該市場的底部嗎？或者明年上半年的情況會保持相對疲軟嗎？

Yes. So into Q4, it is both. It is the weak base station demand, which you are also quoting. So it's -- I mean, all the hopes this year have been on India and as you realized it right, it's just going as strong as people and as we had expected. But there is a second component in that weaker revenue for us in Q4 and that is the decline of the pent-up demand in secure cards. I think we spoke about this a couple of times through the year that by favoring Mobile demand in '21 and '22, we have brutally undershipped the secure car business and the solid part of the pent-up demand we actually satisfied through this year, and that starts now to go away.

是的。因此進入第四季度，兩者皆有。基地台需求疲軟，您也提到了這一點。所以——我的意思是，今年所有的希望都集中在印度身上，正如你所意識到的，它正如人們和我們所預期的那樣強勁發展。但是，第四季我們營收下降還有第二個因素，那就是安全卡的被壓抑需求的下降。我想我們今年已經談過幾次了，由於在21年和22年更看重移動需求，我們嚴重低估了安全汽車業務的出貨量，而我們今年實際上滿足了大部分被壓抑的需求，而這種情況現在開始消失。

And so that's plus the weak Mobile base station environment explains the downtime into the fourth quarter. How it all plays out next year? I mean, just to go back through my prepared remarks, clearly, that whole segment next year is not necessarily set up for a huge victory lab. Some of these trends, especially in the base station market will likely continue into next year. So staying relatively speaking, weak. So I'm looking at time now. I think we are nearing the end of the call.

因此，再加上疲軟的行動基地台環境，就導致了第四季的停機。明年這一切將如何展開？我的意思是，回顧我準備好的發言，顯然，明年的整個環節並不一定是為了一個巨大的勝利實驗室而設立的。其中一些趨勢，特別是在基地台市場，可能會持續到明年。因此，相對而言，還是處於弱勢。所以我現在正在看時間。我想我們的通話快結束了。

And I would like to summarize there. Bill and I really think the main theme of this quarter is especially that, since there has been so much say, different messaging from our peers, we really think that the fundamental content growth drivers in our key businesses being Automotive and the Industrial IoT space are in place, but all of this has been massively overlaid by to what extent people have proactively or not proactively managed the inventory cycle.

我想就此做個總結。比爾和我確實認為本季的主題是，由於我們的同行有如此多的說法和不同的信息，我們確實認為我們的關鍵業務（汽車和工業物聯網領域）的基本內容增長動力已經到位，但所有這些都被人們在多大程度上主動或不主動地管理庫存週期所淹沒。

We have tried to do this as productively as we could most notably for all of you in the reported general inventory numbers, which for 6 quarters now. We have kept very lean. And also earlier this year, we started to try and do a similar thing on our direct customers by not enforcing NCNR, by being reasonable by finding alternative commercial solutions putting us actually in a situation, where we think we have -- due to this somewhat undershipped the demand more than our competitors, which leads us now going forward in a situation, which is much less pronounced relative to the dip and much more realizing the intended and envisaged soft landing, which we wanted to have.

我們已盡力有效地完成了這項工作，最值得注意的是向大家報告的 6 個季度的一般庫存數據。我們的經營一直保持著非常精簡的水準。今年早些時候，我們開始嘗試對我們的直接客戶做類似的事情，不執行 NCNR，而是合理地尋找替代的商業解決方案，這實際上使我們處於這樣一種境地：我們認為，由於這一原因，我們的發貨量比競爭對手少，這導致我們現在面臨的情況相對於下滑來說不那麼明顯，而且更能實現我們想要的預期和軟著陸。

That is the main point here. Other than that business really going back to a more normal pricing environment lead times being normalized, all reasons to believe that this growth quarter from a quarter year-over-year perspective throughout all of next year, resuming growth. You see this in Q4 already. We have year-on-year growth and that should continue throughout all of next year.

這是這裡的重點。除了業務真正回到更正常的定價環境和交貨時間正常化之外，所有理由都相信，從同比增長的角度來看，這個季度的成長將在明年全年恢復成長。您已經在第 4 季看到了這一點。我們實現了同比增長，並且這種趨勢應該會持續到明年。

With that, I thank you all for the attention today. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

最後，我感謝大家今天的關注。非常感謝。再見。

Thank you all, who are on call here.

謝謝在這裡值班的各位。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。