恩智浦 (NXPI) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

半導體公司 Xilinx 在第四季度的四個部門中有三個部門的收入有所增加,整體財務業績“非常好”。該公司將他們的成功歸功於對其控制範圍內的謹慎管理,包括將渠道庫存維持在 1.6 個月的水平(約 5 億美元的收入)以及增加現有庫存以為中國的潛在需求做準備。雖然本季度至今在中國的分銷銷售一直緩慢,但考慮到客戶參與度、戰略重點領域的設計獲胜勢頭以及中國的潛在反彈,Xilinx 對未來“持謹慎樂觀態度”。

展望 2023 年,全球市場對汽車和核心工業業務的需求預計將下降。這是多種因素共同作用的結果,包括特定地區的供應限制、全球生產水平的提高以及 xEV 的長期採用。

在汽車領域,消費者物聯網和移動領域將繼續依賴於週期性反彈。在工業和物聯網領域,Xilinx 預計核心工業子市場的相對實力更強,因為他們的產品能夠提高關鍵基礎設施和公司的效率。然而,消費者物聯網和移動領域將繼續依賴於週期性反彈。

最後,在通信基礎設施方面,Xilinx 預計他們的供應能力將針對被壓抑的需求有所改善,特別是在他們的 RFID 包裝解決方案、安全訪問產品和電子政府識別方面。 NXP Semiconductors N.V. 週二公佈季度營收好於預期,原因是全球半導體需求回升提振了其用於汽車和工業設備的芯片銷售。該公司股價在盤後交易中上漲 4.4% 至 151.50 美元。

恩智浦大約三分之二的收入來自汽車市場,一直受益於全球半導體短缺,迫使汽車製造商限制芯片供應並削減產量。該公司表示,預計半導體短缺將持續到 2021 年上半年。

全球最大的汽車芯片製造商恩智浦公佈第四季度營收為 33.1 億美元,同比增長 9%。根據 Refinitiv 的 IBES 數據,分析師平均預期收入為 32.7 億美元。

本季度毛利率從去年同期的 56.4% 上升至 58.4%。

營業費用從第三季度的 9.32 億美元增至 9.46 億美元,但低於去年同期的 10.1 億美元。

恩智浦於 2006 年從荷蘭飛利浦集團剝離出來,一直在大力投資 5G 芯片和汽車安全功能,如雷達和激光雷達。

該公司表示,預計第一季度營收為 32.2 億美元至 33.8 億美元,高於分析師預估的 32.1 億美元。 NXP 在收入方面創下了創紀錄的一年,他們將其歸因於更高的定價、銷量和組合。全年汽車和核心工業市場表現強勁,導致需求高於預期。該公司預計投入成本通脹將在 2023 年繼續,但增速將低於 2022 年的水平。

該公司的運營現金流為 10.8 億美元,淨資本支出為 2.33 億美元,非 GAAP 自由現金流為 8.43 億美元,約佔其收入的 25%。

該公司預計第一季度收入為 30 億美元,同比下降 4%,環比下降 9%。他們預計非 GAAP 毛利率約為 58% 上下 50 個基點。運營費用預計約為 7.1 億美元,上下浮動約 1000 萬美元。該公司估計非 GAAP 財務費用約為 7700 萬美元。他們預計非 GAAP 稅率為稅前利潤的 16.5%。非控股權益和其他預計約為 1000 萬美元。

對於第一季度,出於建模目的,他們建議使用 2.614 億股的平均股數。這意味著非 GAAP 每股收益為 3.01 美元。出於 2023 年全年建模的目的,他們建議使用 16% 至 17% 之間的非 GAAP 稅率。這低於他們之前預期的 18% 的有效現金稅率,並且是基於現行稅法。

他們建議使用 4.1 億美元進行基於股票的補償,模型沒有變化。他們建議使用比 2022 年少 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元的非控股權益。他們預計將大約 8% 的收入用於資本支出。在超過 35 個國家/地區擁有 45,000 名員工,為汽車、工業、消費、移動和通信市場提供產品。

2020年第四季度,恩智浦淨營收為24.8億美元,較2019年第四季度增長5%。毛利率為52.0%,較2019年第四季度增長2.0個百分點。營業費用為 5.13 億美元,與 2019 年第四季度相比增長 7%。

截至第四季度末,公司淨債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 之比為 1.3 倍,其 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 利息覆蓋率為 14.9 倍。業務產生的現金流繼續保持健康,公司的資產負債表仍然非常強勁。

第四季度,公司支付了 2.21 億美元的現金股息,並回購了 4.75 億美元的股票。此外,恩智浦董事會已批准將公司的季度現金股息提高 20%,使季度現金股息達到每股約 1 美元。這些行動都符合公司的資本配置策略。

NXP Semiconductors N.V. 是一家荷蘭全球半導體製造商,總部位於埃因霍溫。公司在超過 35 個國家擁有約 45,000 名員工,為汽車、工業、消費、移動和通信市場提供產品。

2020年第四季度,恩智浦淨營收為24.8億美元,較2019年第四季度增長5%。毛利率為52.0%,較2019年第四季度增長2.0個百分點。營業費用為 5.13 億美元,與 2019 年第四季度相比增長 7%。

截至第四季度末,公司淨債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 之比為 1.3 倍,其 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 利息覆蓋率為 14.9 倍。業務產生的現金流繼續保持健康,公司的資產負債表仍然非常強勁。

第四季度,公司支付了 2.21 億美元的現金股息,並回購了 4.75 億美元的股票。此外,恩智浦董事會已批准將公司的季度現金股息提高 20%,使季度現金股息達到每股約 1 美元。這些行動都符合公司的資本配置策略。

轉向營運資本指標,庫存天數為 116 天,環比增加 17 天,分銷渠道庫存為 1.6 個月。鑑於不確定的需求環境,該公司有意選擇限制渠道中的庫存月數,同時將庫存保留在公司的資產負債表上,以便根據需要更靈活地重新定向產品。此外,考慮到公司的製造週期時間,加上2023年上半年需求環境的不確定性,公司將在第一季度繼續這種做法,預計該季度的庫存天數將增加。應收賬款天數為 26 天,環比下降 1 天,應付賬款天數為 105 天,由於材料的時間安排,較上一季度增加 9 天。兩者合計,公司的現金周轉週期為 37 天,比上一季度增加了 7 天。

NXP Semiconductors N.V. 是一家荷蘭全球半導體製造商,總部位於埃因霍溫。公司在超過 35 個國家擁有約 45,000 名員工,為汽車、工業、消費、移動和通信市場提供產品。

2020年第四季度,恩智浦淨營收為24.8億美元,較2019年第四季度增長5%。毛利率為52.0%,較2019年第四季度增長2.0個百分點。營業費用為 5.13 億美元,與 2019 年第四季度相比增長 7%。

截至第四季度末,公司淨債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 之比為 1.3 倍,其 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 利息覆蓋率為 14.9 倍。業務產生的現金流繼續保持健康,公司的資產負債表仍然非常強勁。

第四季度,公司支付了 2.21 億美元的現金股息,並回購了 4.75 億美元的股票。此外,恩智浦董事會已批准將公司的季度現金股息提高 20%,使季度現金股息達到每股約 1 美元。這些行動都符合公司的資本配置策略。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the NXP Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    你好。感謝您的支持,歡迎來到恩智浦 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Palmer, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    我現在想把會議交給今天的演講者,投資者關係高級副總裁傑夫帕爾默。請繼續。

  • Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

    Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Michelle, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to NXP's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. With me on the call today is Kurt Sievers, NXP's President and CEO; and Bill Betz, our CFO. The call today is being recorded and will be available for replay from our corporate website.

    謝謝你,米歇爾,大家早上好。歡迎來到恩智浦 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。今天與我通話的是恩智浦總裁兼首席執行官 Kurt Sievers;和我們的首席財務官 Bill Betz。今天的通話正在錄音中,可以從我們的公司網站上重播。

  • Today's call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, the macroeconomic impact on the specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products and our expectations for the financial results for the first quarter of 2023. Please be reminded that NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements. For a full disclosure on forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release.

    今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述,這些陳述涉及可能導致恩智浦業績與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於關於 COVID-19 大流行對我們業務的持續影響、宏觀經濟對我們經營所在的特定終端市場的影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們的預期的聲明關於 2023 年第一季度的財務業績。請注意,恩智浦不承擔公開修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。有關前瞻性陳述的完整披露,請參閱我們的新聞稿。

  • Additionally, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are driven primarily by discrete events that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance. Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our fourth quarter 2022 earnings press release, which will be furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K and available from NXP's website in the Investor Relations section at nxp.com.

    此外,我們將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標,這些指標主要由管理層認為與恩智浦基本核心運營績效不直接相關的離散事件驅動。根據 G 條例,恩智浦在我們的 2022 年第四季度收益新聞稿中提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬,該新聞稿將通過 8-K 表格提交給美國證券交易委員會,並可從恩智浦網站nxp.com 的投資者關係部分。

  • Now I'd like to turn the call over to Kurt.

    現在我想把電話轉給 Kurt。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. We really appreciate you joining our call this morning. I will review both our quarter 4 and our full year 2022 performance, and then I will discuss our guidance for quarter 1.

    謝謝,傑夫,大家早上好。非常感謝您今天早上加入我們的電話會議。我將回顧我們第 4 季度和 2022 年全年的業績,然後我將討論我們對第 1 季度的指導。

  • Beginning with quarter 4, our revenue was [$12 million] better than the midpoint of our guidance with the trends in the mobile and industrial and IoT markets performing better than our expectations, while Automotive was in line and Communication Infrastructure below our expectations. Taken together, NXP delivered quarter 4 revenue of $3.31 billion, an increase of 9% year-on-year while maintaining channel inventory at a 1.6 months level, well below our long-term target.

    從第 4 季度開始,我們的收入 [1200 萬美元] 高於我們指導的中點,移動和工業以及物聯網市場的趨勢表現好於我們的預期,而汽車符合我們的預期,而通信基礎設施低於我們的預期。總的來說,恩智浦第 4 季度的收入為 33.1 億美元,同比增長 9%,同時將渠道庫存維持在 1.6 個月的水平,遠低於我們的長期目標。

  • Non-GAAP operating margin in quarter 4 was a strong 36.5%, 160 basis points better than the year ago period and about 50 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance. Year-on-year outperformance was a result of good follow through on the higher revenue, better gross margin due to higher factory utilization and disciplined expense management.

    第 4 季度的非 GAAP 營業利潤率高達 36.5%,比去年同期高 160 個基點,比我們的指引中點高出約 50 個基點。同比表現出色是由於較高的收入、更高的工廠利用率和嚴格的費用管理帶來更好的毛利率。

  • Now let me turn to the full year performance. Revenue was a record $13.21 billion, an increase of 19% year-on-year. When passing the revenue growth, approximately 14% was due to higher pricing and was due to a combination of volume and mix. And here, as a reminder, we have executed a consistent pricing policy to pass along the inflationary increases of our input costs while not patting our gross margin.

    現在讓我談談全年的表現。收入達到創紀錄的 132.1 億美元,同比增長 19%。在通過收入增長時,大約 14% 是由於價格上漲以及數量和組合的結合。在這裡,提醒一下,我們已經執行了一致的定價政策,以傳遞我們投入成本的通貨膨脹增長,同時不影響我們的毛利率。

  • Throughout 2022, we consistently found ourselves in a situation where robust demand across automotive and core industrial markets, outstripped available supply even as production levels, both internally and from our supplier partners improved through the year. And now we do see a continuation of input cost inflation in 2023, however, not at the same pace and level we experienced in 2022.

    在整個 2022 年,我們始終發現自己處於汽車和核心工業市場的強勁需求超過可用供應的情況,即使內部和供應商合作夥伴的生產水平在這一年中有所提高。現在我們確實看到 2023 年投入成本通脹將繼續,但速度和水平與 2022 年不同。

  • The full year non-GAAP operating margin was solid 36.3%, a 340 basis point improvement versus the year ago period as a result of higher revenue, improved factory loadings and positive operating leverage.

    由於收入增加、工廠負荷增加和積極的經營槓桿,全年非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 36.3%,比去年同期提高 340 個基點。

  • Now let me move to the specific trends in our focus end markets. First, Automotive. Full year revenue was $6.88 billion, up 25% year-on-year, a reflection of higher pricing, our strong company-specific product drivers and accelerated content increases, thanks to the secular growth in sales of xEV vehicles and prioritization by OEMs of premium class vehicles in a limited supply environment.

    現在讓我談談我們關注的終端市場的具體趨勢。第一,汽車。全年收入為 68.8 億美元,同比增長 25%,這反映了更高的定價、我們強大的公司特定產品驅動力和加速的內容增長,這要歸功於 xEV 汽車銷量的長期增長以及 OEM 對高端汽車的優先考慮供應有限的環境中的類車輛。

  • For the fourth quarter, Automotive revenue was $1.81 billion, up 17% versus the year ago period and in line with our guidance.

    第四季度,汽車業務收入為 18.1 億美元,同比增長 17%,符合我們的指引。

  • Now moving to Industrial and IoT. Full year revenue was $2.71 billion, up 13% year-on-year, primarily due to higher pricing and the strong competitive positioning of our solution offering comprising industrial processes (inaudible) connectivity and security. For the fourth quarter, Industrial and IoT revenue was $605 million, down 8% versus the year ago period, so better than our guidance.

    現在轉向工業和物聯網。全年收入為 27.1 億美元,同比增長 13%,這主要是由於定價更高以及我們的解決方案產品(包括工業流程(聽不清)連接性和安全性)具有強大的競爭定位。第四季度,工業和物聯網收入為 6.05 億美元,比去年同期下降 8%,好於我們的指導。

  • Mobile. Full year revenue was $1.61 billion, up 14% year-on-year, primarily due to higher pricing and continued traction of our secure mobile wallet. For quarter 4, Mobile revenue was $408 million, up 9% versus the year ago period and better than our guidance.

    移動的。全年收入為 16.1 億美元,同比增長 14%,這主要是由於更高的價格和我們的安全移動錢包的持續吸引力。第 4 季度,移動收入為 4.08 億美元,比去年同期增長 9%,好於我們的指導。

  • Lastly, Communication Infrastructure and Other. Full year revenue was $2 billion, up 15% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth was due to higher pricing and a combination of sales growth of network processors, RFID tech solutions, secured transit and access products and RF power products for the cellular base station markets. For quarter 4, Communication Infrastructure and Other revenue was $494 million, up 8% year-on-year and below our guidance.

    最後,通信基礎設施和其他。全年收入為 20 億美元,同比增長 15%。同比增長是由於更高的定價以及網絡處理器、RFID 技術解決方案、安全傳輸和訪問產品以及蜂窩基站市場的射頻電源產品的銷售增長。第 4 季度,通信基礎設施和其他收入為 4.94 億美元,同比增長 8%,低於我們的指引。

  • Now as discussed earlier, I also would like to provide you a progress update on our accelerated growth drivers. At our Analyst Day in November '21, we highlighted our expectation to grow total company revenue to approximately $15 billion in 2024, coming from $11 billion in 2021 within a compound annual growth range of 8% to 12% over that period. Embedded within this outlook, we highlighted 6 company-specific revenue drivers across all our served end markets, which we anticipated to grow in aggregates to about $6 billion in '24 from a $3 billion level in '21, representing about a 25% 3-year compound annual growth range.

    現在,如前所述,我還想向您提供有關我們加速增長驅動因素的最新進展。在 21 年 11 月的分析師日上,我們強調了我們預計公司總收入將從 2021 年的 110 億美元增加到 2024 年的約 150 億美元,在此期間的複合年增長率為 8% 至 12%。在這一展望中,我們強調了我們所有服務的終端市場中 6 個公司特定的收入驅動因素,我們預計這些收入將從 21 年的 30 億美元增長到 24 年的約 60 億美元,佔 3-25% 左右。年復合年增長率區間。

  • Additionally, we shared with you that our high relative market share core business would grow to $9 billion in '24 from $8 billion in '21, reflecting about a 5% 3-year compound annual growth range. Overall, we are confident to achieve the anticipated growth rates for both our accelerated growth drivers as well as our high relative market share core business.

    此外,我們與您分享了我們相對較高的市場份額核心業務將從 21 年的 80 億美元增長到 24 年的 90 億美元,反映出 3 年復合年增長率約為 5%。總體而言,我們有信心實現我們加速增長的驅動因素以及我們相對較高的市場份額核心業務的預期增長率。

  • Moving to the segments. Within Automotive, the accelerated growth drivers are 77 gigahertz radar, electrification and the S32 domain and solar processes, all of which are tracking ahead of plan. According to market research company, Yole, NXP is confirmed as the clear #1 revenue market leader in automotive radar solutions as well as individually in radar RF transceivers and radar processes. Furthermore, we just announced the industry's first 28-nanometer RFCMOS radar 1 chip IC family for the next-generation ADAS, an autonomous driving systems.

    移動到細分市場。在汽車領域,加速增長的驅動力是 77 GHz 雷達、電氣化和 S32 領域以及太陽能工藝,所有這些都在提前跟踪。據市場研究公司 Yole 稱,恩智浦被確認為汽車雷達解決方案以及雷達 RF 收發器和雷達工藝領域收入市場第一的領導者。此外,我們剛剛發布了業界首款用於下一代自動駕駛系統 ADAS 的 28 納米 RFCMOS 雷達 1 芯片 IC 系列。

  • Turning to our efforts in electrification. Our sales, including battery management solutions, inverter control and other xEV control processes has doubled year-on-year and achieved record custom design wins.

    轉向我們在電氣化方面的努力。我們的銷售額,包括電池管理解決方案、逆變器控制和其他 xEV 控制流程,同比翻了一番,並取得了創紀錄的定制設計勝利。

  • Finally, within Automotive, the customer enthusiasm for this S32 domain and sonar processor family, enabling the software-defined vehicle, are far in excess of our expectations. This includes the awards by a major automotive OEM, which selected the S32 family of automotive processes and microcontrollers to be used across its fleet of future vehicles beginning mid-decade.

    最後,在汽車領域,客戶對支持軟件定義車輛的 S32 領域和聲納處理器系列的熱情遠遠超出了我們的預期。這包括一家大型汽車原始設備製造商授予的獎項,該原始設備製造商選擇了 S32 系列汽車工藝和微控制器,用於其未來 20 年中期開始的車隊。

  • Moving to Industrial and IoT. We are in line with our expected growth range of about 25% 3-year CAGR for our accelerated growth drivers. Both our crossover and (inaudible) application processor families grew nearly 50% year-on-year in 2022. However, we did see a deceleration in revenue in the consumer IoT portion of the end markets during the second half of 2022.

    轉向工業和物聯網。對於我們加速增長的動力,我們符合我們預期的 3 年復合年增長率約為 25% 的增長范圍。我們的跨界和(聽不清)應用處理器系列在 2022 年同比增長近 50%。但是,我們確實看到 2022 年下半年終端市場的消費者物聯網部分的收入有所下降。

  • Finally, we announced our new MCX microcontroller portfolio, that is scalable, optimized foundation for energy-efficient industrial and IoT edge applications, addressing the heavy real-time workloads for the next wave of innovation. In addition, we recently announced our new analog front-end family for high-precision data acquisition and condition monitoring systems for factory automation.

    最後,我們發布了新的 MCX 微控制器產品組合,它是可擴展的、優化的節能工業和物聯網邊緣應用基礎,可解決下一波創新浪潮中繁重的實時工作負載。此外,我們最近還發布了用於工廠自動化高精度數據採集和狀態監測系統的新型模擬前端系列。

  • Moving to Mobile. We are below our expected revenue growth range for the accelerated growth driver of ultra-wideband due to the well-documented weakness in the Android handset market, which is the focused mobile market for our ultra-wideband solutions. However, for ultra-widebands, the ecosystem build-out and design win activity and traction in both Mobile and Auto are going well. And we believe as the Android market rebounds, awarded design wins will result in the expected revenue growth for ultra-widebands.

    移動到移動。由於 Android 手機市場的明顯疲軟,我們的超寬帶加速增長驅動力低於我們預期的收入增長范圍,而安卓手機市場是我們超寬帶解決方案的重點移動市場。然而,對於超寬帶,生態系統構建和設計贏得了移動和汽車領域的活動和牽引力,進展順利。而且我們相信,隨著 Android 市場的反彈,獲獎的設計將帶來超寬帶的預期收入增長。

  • Lastly, within Communications and Infrastructure, we are in line with our expected revenue growth range for RF power amplifiers. The industry transition to gallium nitride from LDMOS technology has occurred faster than expected. The revenue for our gallium nitride-based solutions has doubled year-on-year and demand continues to outstrip our increasing supply capability.

    最後,在通信和基礎設施領域,我們符合我們預期的射頻功率放大器收入增長范圍。行業從 LDMOS 技術過渡到氮化鎵的速度比預期的要快。我們基於氮化鎵的解決方案的收入同比翻了一番,需求繼續超過我們不斷增長的供應能力。

  • In review, 2022 was a very good year for NXP, with strong execution resulting in record revenue, solid profit growth and a healthy free cash flow generation. Additionally, we experienced unprecedented year-on-year design win traction across the entire portfolio.

    回顧過去,2022 年對恩智浦來說是非常好的一年,強大的執行力帶來了創紀錄的收入、穩健的利潤增長和健康的自由現金流產生。此外,我們在整個產品組合中經歷了前所未有的同比設計獲勝牽引力。

  • Now let me turn to our expectations for quarter 1, 2023. We are guiding quarter 1 revenue to $3 billion, down about 4% versus the first quarter of '22. From a sequential perspective, this represents a deceleration of about 9% at the midpoint versus the prior quarter. At the midpoint, we anticipate the following trends in our business. Automotive is expected to be up in the mid-teens percent range versus quarter 1, '22 and flat versus quarter 4, '22.

    現在讓我談談我們對 2023 年第一季度的預期。我們將第一季度的收入指導為 30 億美元,比 22 年第一季度下降約 4%。從連續的角度來看,這表示中點與上一季度相比下降了約 9%。在中點,我們預計我們的業務會出現以下趨勢。與 2022 年第 1 季度相比,汽車預計將增長 15% 左右,與 22 年第 4 季度持平。

  • Industrial and IoT is expected to be down in the low 30% range year-on-year and down in the low 20% range versus quarter 4, '22. Mobile is expected to be down about in the mid-40% range, both on a year-on-year and sequential basis. Finally, Communication Infrastructure and Other is expected to be about flat, both on a year-on-year and sequentially.

    預計工業和物聯網同比下降 30%,與 2022 年第 4 季度相比下降 20%。預計移動業務將同比和環比下降約 40% 左右。最後,通信基礎設施和其他預計同比和環比持平。

  • In summary, as we head into 2023, our Automotive and Core Industrial businesses remain supply constraints in select areas. Within Automotive, the increase of global production levels and the secular adoption of xEV are tailwinds to continued content increases. In Industrial and IoT, we expect relative strength in the core industrial submarkets as our products enable critical infrastructure and companies to be more efficient. However, the Consumer IoT and the Mobile segment will continue to be dependent on a cyclical rebound.

    總之,隨著我們進入 2023 年,我們的汽車和核心工業業務在特定領域仍然存在供應限制。在汽車行業,全球生產水平的提高和 xEV 的長期採用是持續增長的順風。在工業和物聯網方面,我們預計核心工業子市場會出現相對強勢,因為我們的產品能夠提高關鍵基礎設施和公司的效率。然而,消費者物聯網和移動領域將繼續依賴於週期性反彈。

  • And lastly, in Communications Infrastructure, we expect our supply capability to improve against pent-up demand, specifically in our RFID packing solutions, secure access products and e-government identification.

    最後,在通信基礎設施方面,我們希望我們的供應能力能夠針對被壓抑的需求進行改進,特別是在我們的 RFID 包裝解決方案、安全訪問產品和電子政府識別方面。

  • Within the 5G base station markets, growth in '23 will be dependent on the build-out, especially in India. At the same time, we do believe from an external macro perspective, the general demand environment is offering much higher levels of uncertainty than last year. And in the very short term, we are expecting a dip in China due to the spike in infection rates following the policy shift relating to COVID. Additionally, we expect continued cyclical weakness in demand for consumer-oriented products and a potential correction of customer inventory.

    在 5G 基站市場中,23 年的增長將取決於擴建,尤其是在印度。同時,我們確實認為,從外部宏觀角度來看,總體需求環境的不確定性遠高於去年。在很短的時間內,由於與 COVID 相關的政策轉變後感染率飆升,我們預計中國會出現下滑。此外,我們預計面向消費者的產品需求將持續出現週期性疲軟,並且客戶庫存可能會出現調整。

  • In this more uncertain demand environment, we will focus on prudently managing what is in our control. And especially while we have plenty of orders, we will continue to very vigilantly manage general inventory to a 1.6 months level, which is about a month below our long-term target, equaling approximately $500 million of revenue. We intend to maintain that 1.6 months channel inventory in the first quarter, while we are well positioned with our on-hand inventory to increase channel inventory, if and when demand in China revolves. So far, quarter-to-date, our distribution sales through in China is off to a slow start as is incorporated in our guidance.

    在這個更加不確定的需求環境中,我們將專注於審慎管理我們控制的範圍。特別是在我們有大量訂單的情況下,我們將繼續非常謹慎地將一般庫存管理到 1.6 個月的水平,這比我們的長期目標低大約一個月,相當於大約 5 億美元的收入。我們打算在第一季度維持 1.6 個月的渠道庫存,同時如果中國的需求出現變化,我們可以利用現有庫存來增加渠道庫存。到目前為止,本季度至今,我們在中國的分銷銷售開局緩慢,這已納入我們的指導方針。

  • Over the midterm, we are cautiously optimistic given customer engagement levels, design win momentum in our strategic focus areas and a potential rebound in China.

    從中期來看,鑑於客戶參與度、我們戰略重點領域的設計獲胜勢頭以及中國的潛在反彈,我們持謹慎樂觀態度。

  • And now I would like to pass the call to you, Bill, for a review of our financial performance.

    比爾,現在我想把電話轉給你,讓你審查我們的財務業績。

  • William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Kurt, and good morning to everyone on today's call. As Kurt has already covered the drivers of revenue during Q4 and provided our revenue outlook for Q1, I will move to the financial highlights.

    謝謝你,庫爾特,今天的電話會議大家早上好。由於 Kurt 已經介紹了第四季度的收入驅動因素並提供了我們對第一季度的收入展望,因此我將轉向財務亮點。

  • Overall, our Q4 financial performance was very good. Revenue was slightly above the midpoint of our guidance range and both non-GAAP gross profit and non-GAAP operating profit were above the midpoint of our guidance.

    總的來說,我們第四季度的財務表現非常好。收入略高於我們指導範圍的中點,非 GAAP 毛利和非 GAAP 營業利潤均高於我們指導的中點。

  • I will first provide full year highlights and then move to the Q4 results. Full year revenue for 2022 was $13.21 billion, up 19% year-on-year. We generated $7.64 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 57.9%, up 180 basis points year-on-year as a result of higher internal factory utilization and fall-through on higher revenue, which is at the high end of our long-term financial model.

    我將首先提供全年亮點,然後轉到第四季度的結果。 2022年全年收入為132.1億美元,同比增長19%。我們產生了 76.4 億美元的非 GAAP 毛利,非 GAAP 毛利率為 57.9%,同比增長 180 個基點,這是由於內部工廠利用率提高和收入增加導致的,收入增加我們長期財務模型的高端。

  • Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $2.86 billion or 21.6% of revenue, below our long-term financial model. Total non-GAAP operating profit was $4.79 billion, up 32% year-on-year. This reflects a non-GAAP operating margin of 36.3%, up 340 basis points year-on-year and above our long-term financial model.

    非美國通用會計準則運營費用總額為 28.6 億美元,佔收入的 21.6%,低於我們的長期財務模型。非美國通用會計準則營業利潤總額為 47.9 億美元,同比增長 32%。這反映了 36.3% 的非 GAAP 營業利潤率,同比增長 340 個基點,高於我們的長期財務模型。

  • Non-GAAP interest expense was $386 million. Cash taxes for ongoing operations were $558 million, noncontrolling interest of $46 million and stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP earnings, was $364 million.

    非 GAAP 利息支出為 3.86 億美元。持續經營的現金稅為 5.58 億美元,非控股權益為 4600 萬美元,股票薪酬為 3.64 億美元,這不包括在我們的非 GAAP 收益中。

  • Full year cash flow highlights include $3.9 billion in cash flow from operations and $1.06 billion in net CapEx investments or 8% of revenue, resulting in $2.83 billion of non-GAAP free cash flow, up 23% year-on-year or a healthy 21% of revenue.

    全年現金流亮點包括 39 億美元的運營現金流和 10.6 億美元的淨資本支出投資或占收入的 8%,從而產生 28.3 億美元的非 GAAP 自由現金流,同比增長 23% 或健康的 21收入的百分比。

  • During 2022, we repurchased 8.33 million shares for $1.43 billion and paid cash dividends of $815 million or 21% of cash flow from operations. In total, we returned $2.2 billion to our owners, which was 79% of the total non-GAAP free cash flow generated during the year.

    2022 年,我們以 14.3 億美元的價格回購了 833 萬股股票,並支付了 8.15 億美元的現金股息,佔運營現金流的 21%。我們總共向所有者返還了 22 億美元,佔當年產生的非 GAAP 自由現金流總額的 79%。

  • Now moving to the details of Q4. Total revenue was $3.31 billion, up 9% year-on-year, in line with the midpoint of our guidance range. We generated $1.92 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 58%, up 70 basis points year-on-year and consistent with the midpoint of our guidance range.

    現在轉到第四季度的細節。總收入為 33.1 億美元,同比增長 9%,符合我們指導範圍的中點。我們產生了 19.2 億美元的非 GAAP 毛利潤,非 GAAP 毛利率為 58%,同比增長 70 個基點,與我們的指導範圍的中點一致。

  • Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $713 million or 21.5% of revenue, which is up $32 million year-on-year and down $17 million from Q3, slightly favorable to the midpoint of our guidance. From a total operating profit perspective, non-GAAP operating profit was $1.21 billion, and non-GAAP operating margin was 36.5%, up 160 basis points year-on-year, above the midpoint of our guidance range, reflecting solid fall-through in operating leverage on the increased revenue level.

    非 GAAP 運營總支出為 7.13 億美元,佔收入的 21.5%,同比增加 3200 萬美元,比第三季度減少 1700 萬美元,略高於我們指引的中點。從營業利潤總額來看,非美國通用會計準則營業利潤為 12.1 億美元,非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 36.5%,同比上升 160 個基點,高於我們指導範圍的中點,反映了穩健的下滑經營槓桿對增加的收入水平。

  • Non-GAAP interest expense was $95 million, with cash taxes for ongoing operations of $126 million and noncontrolling interest was $12 million. Stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP earnings, was $97 million.

    非 GAAP 利息支出為 9500 萬美元,持續經營的現金稅為 1.26 億美元,非控股權益為 1200 萬美元。不包括在我們的非 GAAP 收益中的基於股票的薪酬為 9700 萬美元。

  • Now I would like to turn to the changes in our cash and debt. Our total debt at the end of Q4 was $11.17 billion, essentially flat sequentially. Our ending cash position was $3.85 billion, up $86 million sequentially due to the cumulative effect of capital returns, CapEx investments and cash generation during Q4. The resulting net debt was $7.32 billion, and we exited the quarter with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $5.47 billion.

    現在我想談談我們現金和債務的變化。我們在第四季度末的總債務為 111.7 億美元,與上一季度基本持平。由於第四季度資本回報、資本支出投資和現金產生的累積效應,我們的期末現金頭寸為 38.5 億美元,環比增加 8600 萬美元。由此產生的淨債務為 73.2 億美元,我們以 54.7 億美元的過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 結束本季度。

  • Our ratio of net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at the end of Q4 was 1.3x, and our 12-month adjusted EBITDA interest coverage was 14.9x. Cash flow generation of the business continues to be healthy and our balance sheet continues to be very strong.

    第四季度末,我們的淨債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.3 倍,我們 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 利息覆蓋率為 14.9 倍。業務的現金流產生繼續保持健康,我們的資產負債表繼續非常強勁。

  • During Q4, we paid $221 million in cash dividends and repurchased $475 million of our shares. Additionally, the NXP Board of Directors has approved a 20% increase in our quarterly cash dividend, bringing the quarterly cash dividend to approximately $1 per share. These actions are all aligned with our capital allocation strategy.

    在第四季度,我們支付了 2.21 億美元的現金股息並回購了 4.75 億美元的股票。此外,恩智浦董事會已批准將我們的季度現金股息增加 20%,使季度現金股息達到每股約 1 美元。這些行動都符合我們的資本配置策略。

  • Turning to working capital metrics. Days of inventory was 116 days, an increase of 17 days sequentially and distribution channel inventory was 1.6 months. As we mentioned on our last quarter's call, given the uncertain demand environment, we made the intentional choice to limit the months of inventory in the channel, while keeping inventory on our balance sheet to enable greater flexibility to redirect product as needed. Furthermore, given our manufacturing cycle times, combined with the uncertain demand environment in the first half of 2023, we will continue with this approach in Q1, and we expect DIO to increase in the quarter. Days receivable were 26 days, down 1 day sequentially and days payable were 105 days, an increase of 9 days versus the prior quarter due to the timing of material. Taken together, our cash conversion cycle was 37 days, an increase of 7 days versus the prior quarter.

    轉向營運資本指標。庫存天數為 116 天,環比增加 17 天,分銷渠道庫存天數為 1.6 個月。正如我們在上個季度的電話會議上提到的那樣,鑑於不確定的需求環境,我們有意選擇限制渠道中的庫存月數,同時將庫存保留在我們的資產負債表上,以便根據需要更靈活地重定向產品。此外,考慮到我們的製造週期時間,再加上 2023 年上半年不確定的需求環境,我們將在第一季度繼續採用這種方法,我們預計本季度 DIO 會增加。應收賬款天數為 26 天,環比下降 1 天,應付賬款天數為 105 天,由於材料的時間安排,較上一季度增加 9 天。總而言之,我們的現金周轉週期為 37 天,比上一季度增加了 7 天。

  • Cash flow from operations was $1.08 billion and net CapEx was $233 million, resulting in non-GAAP free cash flow of $843 million or approximately 25% of our revenue.

    運營現金流為 10.8 億美元,淨資本支出為 2.33 億美元,非 GAAP 自由現金流為 8.43 億美元,約占我們收入的 25%。

  • Turning now to our expectations for the first quarter. As Kurt mentioned, we anticipate Q1 revenue to be $3 billion, plus or minus about $100 million. At the midpoint, this is down 4% year-on-year and down 9% sequentially. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be about 58% plus or minus 50 basis points, driven by favorable mix, offset by the lower revenue.

    現在談談我們對第一季度的預期。正如 Kurt 提到的,我們預計第一季度收入為 30 億美元,上下浮動約 1 億美元。從中間值來看,這一數字同比下降 4%,環比下降 9%。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率約為 58%,上下浮動 50 個基點,受有利組合的推動,被較低的收入所抵消。

  • Operating expenses are expected to be about $710 million, plus or minus about $10 million. Taken together, we see non-GAAP operating margin to be 34.3% at the midpoint. We estimate non-GAAP financial expense to be about $77 million. We anticipate the non-GAAP tax rate to be 16.5% of profit before tax. Noncontrolling interest and other will be about $10 million. For Q1, we suggest for modeling purposes, you use an average share count of 261.4 million shares. Taken together, at the midpoint, this implies a non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.01.

    運營費用預計約為 7.1 億美元,上下浮動約 1000 萬美元。總而言之,我們認為非 GAAP 營業利潤率中點為 34.3%。我們估計非 GAAP 財務費用約為 7700 萬美元。我們預計非 GAAP 稅率為稅前利潤的 16.5%。非控股權益和其他將約為 1000 萬美元。對於第一季度,出於建模目的,我們建議您使用 2.614 億股的平均股數。綜合來看,在中點,這意味著非 GAAP 每股收益為 3.01 美元。

  • For full year 2023 modeling purposes, we suggest for a non-GAAP tax rate you use a range between 16% to 17%. This is lower than our previously anticipated effective cash tax rate of 18% and is based on current tax legislation. For stock-based compensation, we suggest you use $410 million, no change from the model. For noncontrolling interest, we suggest you use $30 million to $40 million lower than 2022 and for capital expenditures, we expect to invest approximately 8% of our revenue.

    對於 2023 年全年建模目的,我們建議您使用 16% 到 17% 之間的非 GAAP 稅率。這低於我們之前預期的 18% 的有效現金稅率,並且是基於現行稅法。對於基於股票的薪酬,我們建議您使用 4.1 億美元,模型不變。對於非控股權益,我們建議您使用比 2022 年低 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元的資金,對於資本支出,我們預計將投資約 8% 的收入。

  • In closing, looking ahead into 2023, I'd like to highlight a few focus areas for NXP. First, we plan to execute and drive our 6 company-specific accelerated growth drivers. Second, we will manage our internal and channel inventory thoughtfully based on market conditions. Thirdly, we will continue to be disciplined with our operating expenses, while protecting our long-term R&D investments. Taken together, we plan to operate within our long-term financial model ranges in what is a dynamic macro environment.

    最後,展望 2023 年,我想強調 NXP 的幾個重點領域。首先,我們計劃執行和推動我們的 6 個公司特定的加速增長動力。其次,我們將根據市場情況周到地管理我們的內部和渠道庫存。第三,我們將繼續控制運營費用,同時保護我們的長期研發投資。總而言之,我們計劃在動態的宏觀環境中在我們的長期財務模型範圍內運營。

  • I'd like to now turn it back to the operator for questions. Thank you.

    我現在想把它轉回給接線員詢問問題。謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Christopher Caso with Credit Suisse.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的克里斯托弗卡索。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • I guess to start, Kurt, perhaps you could speak to your comments on managing the channel inventory. And of course, one of the concerns investors naturally have is the worry that customers order more than they need given the constraints at the present over the last year and then potentially you overship that. Can you speak to how you're ensuring that what you're shipping to customers now is actually going to real demand rather than inventory? And I guess that's particularly as some of the foundry capacity loosens up, gives you a little -- a little more access to wafer supply.

    我想首先,庫爾特,也許你可以談談你對管理渠道庫存的評論。當然,投資者自然而然地擔心的一個問題是,考慮到去年目前的限制,客戶訂購的數量超過了他們的需要,然後你可能會超額購買。你能談談你如何確保你現在運送給客戶的東西實際上是為了真正的需求而不是庫存嗎?而且我想這尤其是因為一些代工產能放鬆了,給了你一點 - 更多獲得晶圓供應的機會。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Chris, and thanks for taking the first question. Yes, the very, very vigilant management of the channel inventory, it's a very deliberate choice Bill and I took. And we do this while we have more than enough orders at hand to actually ship, say, another $500 million in the quarter into the channel and still hitting our target of 2.4 or 2.5 months of inventory. But we take the choice because we specifically now in China see a weakness. Actually, we think the weakness in China, which for us is almost entirely distribution. We see that connected to the change of COVID policy, which they took in early or first half of December and the spike of infection rates following that. And we just want to be responsible through this period of weakness in China, but watching the situation very carefully.

    是的。謝謝,克里斯,也謝謝你提出第一個問題。是的,對渠道庫存的非常、非常警惕的管理,這是我和比爾經過深思熟慮後做出的選擇。我們這樣做是在我們手頭有足夠多的訂單實際運送,比如說,本季度另外 5 億美元進入渠道,並且仍然達到我們 2.4 或 2.5 個月的庫存目標。但我們做出選擇是因為我們現在特別在中國看到了一個弱點。實際上,我們認為中國的弱點,對我們來說幾乎完全是分銷。我們看到這與他們在 12 月初或上半月採取的 COVID 政策變化以及隨後感染率飆升有關。我們只是想對中國這段疲軟時期負責,但要非常仔細地觀察形勢。

  • So as soon as we would see signs of consistent rebound in China, we have both the orders, but also the product at hand to actually fill back the channel. So it's kind of our choice, which we took here, and I have to say this is across all segments. So that weakness, which we see in China, is not really segment, distribution specific across the board related to this policy change and infection spike in China.

    因此,一旦我們看到中國持續反彈的跡象,我們既有訂單,也有手頭的產品來實際填補渠道。所以這是我們的選擇,我們在這裡採取了這種選擇,我不得不說這涉及所有領域。因此,我們在中國看到的弱點並不是真正的細分市場,與中國的政策變化和感染高峰相關的全面分佈。

  • Maybe important to highlight that at the very same time, we are seeing across the board very strong trends in our direct customers. So it's -- we have a very diverging -- last quarter, we spoke about the dichotomy, very diverging picture now that from a segment perspective, Auto and Core Industrial remain strong. But now we have an additional effect here that we see this short-term weakness in China, which we try to be prudent about with the choice of the channel inventory stable.

    也許重要的是要同時強調,我們在我們的直接客戶中看到了非常強勁的趨勢。所以它 - 我們有一個非常不同的 - 上個季度,我們談到了二分法,現在從細分市場的角度來看,汽車和核心工業仍然很強勁。但現在我們在這裡有一個額外的影響,我們看到了中國的這種短期疲軟,我們試圖謹慎選擇渠道庫存穩定。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • Got it. As a follow-up, if I could pivot to Auto. And question is what's a reasonable expectation for Auto revenue for the year, if not quantitatively, at least qualitatively? And it was flat last quarter, you're managing to be flat again. Is it -- should it stay flat from here? Are you trying to get additional capacity in the process nodes needed for Auto. So that quarterly revenue would at one point rise and catch up on that backlog?

    知道了。作為後續行動,如果我可以轉向汽車。問題是對今年汽車收入的合理預期是多少,如果不是數量上的,至少是質量上的?上個季度持平,你又設法持平了。是——它應該從這裡保持平坦嗎?您是否正在嘗試在 Auto 所需的流程節點中獲得額外的容量。那麼季度收入會在某個時候上升並趕上積壓的訂單嗎?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Let me give you some color on Q4, Q1 and then directionally for the year. Indeed, Q4 was flat from a quarter-on-quarter perspective, by the way, nicely up year-on-year really because of supply constraints. I mean we just did -- we couldn't ship more because we didn't have more products in Q4. In Q1, it's a bit more of a mixed bag. We are getting more products. But at the same time, we -- Automotive in China distribution falls under what I said earlier. So we have a bit of a decline when you think about Automotive distribution in China, while the rest is actually going up at the same time. In the mix, it turns out to be then flat quarter-on-quarter and again, nicely up from a year-on-year perspective.

    是的。讓我給你一些關於第四季度、第一季度的顏色,然後是今年的方向。事實上,從季度環比來看,第四季度持平,順便說一下,由於供應限制,同比增長很好。我的意思是我們只是做了——我們不能出貨更多,因為我們在第四季度沒有更多的產品。在第一季度,情況有點複雜。我們正在獲得更多產品。但與此同時,我們——中國的汽車分銷屬於我之前所說的範圍。所以當你考慮中國的汽車分銷時,我們有一點下降,而其餘的實際上同時上升。在組合中,事實證明它隨後季度環比持平,並且再次從同比角度來看很好地上升。

  • Maybe more importantly, for the full year, yes, we are optimistic, Chris. We see, according to IHS, a far increased to about 85 million, so I think 82 million cars last year, going to 85 million this coming year, which is 3.5-or-so percent increase and more importantly, definitely a continued increase of xEV, electric vehicle penetration. Again, according to IHS, I think going to 35% of the total car production having hybrid or fully electric drivetrains, which is significant and continues to be a significant boost from a content perspective for us.

    也許更重要的是,對於全年,是的,我們很樂觀,克里斯。我們看到,根據 IHS 的數據,增長了 8500 萬輛左右,所以我認為去年有 8200 萬輛汽車,明年將達到 8500 萬輛,增長 3.5% 左右,更重要的是,肯定會持續增長xEV,電動汽車普及率。同樣,根據 IHS 的數據,我認為混合動力或全電動傳動系統將佔汽車總產量的 35%,這對我們來說意義重大,而且從內容的角度來看,這將繼續是一個顯著的推動力。

  • At the same time, we are gradually as through the last quarters, getting access to more supply. I dare to say from today's perspective that probably through the end of the calendar year '23, I hope we have most of the shortages behind us. I mean that will never be totally complete, but I think we are getting closer to a better balance towards the end of the year. And finally, pricing continues to play a role. I think I talked about the pricing specifics for last year in my prepared remarks.

    與此同時,我們在上個季度逐漸獲得更多供應。我敢說,從今天的角度來看,可能到 23 年年底,我希望我們已經解決了大部分短缺問題。我的意思是這永遠不會完全完成,但我認為我們將在年底前接近更好的平衡。最後,定價繼續發揮作用。我想我在準備好的評論中談到了去年的定價細節。

  • Now when you think about this year, input cost continues to go up, especially in those areas which continue to be tight from a supply perspective. So there is also, specifically in Automotive, continued pricing tailwind to be expected.

    現在想想今年,投入成本繼續上漲,尤其是在那些從供應角度來看仍然緊張的地區。因此,特別是在汽車領域,預計還會有持續的定價順風。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Kurt, when I look at the 2 areas facing the most headwind, Consumer IoT and Mobile, and I think they could be below 20% of sales as you get into Q1. Should we assume that is sort of the cycle look when I look at Mobile, I think it's back to like Q1 '19 level? So do you think Q1 kind of marks the cycle low for these 2 most problematic areas? Or do you see them slipping further in Q2?

    Kurt,當我看到面臨最大阻力的兩個領域時,消費者物聯網和移動,我認為當你進入第一季度時,它們可能會低於銷售額的 20%。當我看 Mobile 時,我們是否應該假設這是一種循環,我認為它回到了 19 年第一季度的水平?那麼,您認為 Q1 是否標誌著這兩個問題最嚴重領域的周期低點?或者你認為它們在第二季度會進一步下滑嗎?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Honestly, Vivek, we don't know. I would go over my skis to make a firm statement here. But indeed, Mobile, of course, has a couple of specifics which are driving it really low. There is a seasonal element to this, obviously. Secondly, we do have in Mobile executed our NCNR orders last year, which gives us a headwind from an inventory perspective, if you will. We firmly executed these NCNR orders because these are custom-specific products where we have no chance otherwise to move them around and give them to other customers.

    老實說,Vivek,我們不知道。我會檢查我的滑雪板,在這裡做出堅定的聲明。但事實上,移動當然有一些使它非常低的細節。顯然,這有一個季節性因素。其次,我們去年確實在 Mobile 執行了我們的 NCNR 訂單,如果你願意的話,這從庫存的角度來看給我們帶來了不利因素。我們堅定地執行了這些 NCNR 訂單,因為這些是定制產品,否則我們沒有機會轉移它們並將它們提供給其他客戶。

  • And then finally, there is the well-known and documented Android weakness, which continues to be. I'd say the following: as you see, we are very disciplined with customer inventory and mind you that our Mobile business, to the largest extent, is going through the channel. So if and when end demand picks up, rebounds, which I think it will, at some point, we should indeed very quickly see it. Is that exactly for the second quarter? I don't know, but we are very close to the pipe, given the way how we treat this. I mean I'm glad you are asking, Vivek, because this whole thing around our almost brutal discipline on the 1.6 channel inventory moves us very close to as soon as there is pickup in end demand, we will also see it in our numbers.

    最後,還有眾所周知且有據可查的 Android 弱點,這種弱點一直存在。我要說的是:如您所見,我們對客戶庫存非常有紀律,請注意我們的移動業務在最大程度上正在通過渠道進行。因此,如果當終端需求回升、反彈時,我認為它會在某個時候出現,我們確實應該很快看到它。這就是第二季度嗎?我不知道,但考慮到我們對待它的方式,我們離管道很近了。我的意思是我很高興你問,Vivek,因為圍繞我們對 1.6 通道庫存幾乎殘酷的紀律的整個事情讓我們非常接近終端需求回升,我們也將在我們的數字中看到它。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then on gross margin, I think, Bill, you mentioned something about mix that is helping you keep gross margins at the high end of your target range of 58%. So conceptually, let's say, if your Q1 is the bottom-in sales and sales are flat to up from here. Then do you think gross margins can stay at 58%? Or do you think there is something in mix or utilization in the following quarters that can change gross margins below this level? Or it's 58% kind of now the new baseline of gross margins for NXP?

    知道了。然後關於毛利率,我想,比爾,你提到了一些關於混合的東西,這有助於你將毛利率保持在 58% 的目標範圍的高端。所以從概念上講,假設,如果你的第一季度是底部銷售,那麼銷售從這裡持平到上升。那你覺得毛利率能保持在58%嗎?或者您認為接下來幾個季度的混合或利用率是否會改變毛利率低於該水平?或者它現在是 NXP 毛利率的新基線 58%?

  • William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Vivek, thank you for your question. Let me talk about Q4 and the Q1 guide and also looking ahead. First, as you know, we did slightly better than our guidance and I mentioned it was improved by product mix for Q4. Again, as we look into Q1, despite those lower revenues, we see this positive product mix offsetting lower fall-through on the revenue. Also, we have lowered our internal front-end utilization rates. In Q3, we were running in the high 90s. In Q4, we're about 90%. And again, remember, this is all linked to that non-auto industrial type of products because of market softness we're seeing.

    Vivek,謝謝你的問題。讓我談談 Q4 和 Q1 指南,並展望未來。首先,如你所知,我們的表現略好於我們的指導,我提到第四季度的產品組合有所改善。同樣,當我們查看第一季度時,儘管收入較低,但我們看到這種積極的產品組合抵消了收入下降的影響。此外,我們還降低了內部前端利用率。在第三季度,我們跑在了 90 年代的高峰期。在第四季度,我們大約是 90%。再次記住,由於我們看到的市場疲軟,這一切都與非汽車工業類型的產品有關。

  • For Q1, we do expect to lower our front-end utilization again to about 85%, which is where we still remain constrained in our internal auto IP processing technologies and so forth. And again, I'd say, looking ahead, we expect to stay within our long-term gross margin forecast of 55% to 58% as our cost structure today is more variable in nature than the past. Also, our factories, if you think about it, become more efficient when they run at normal utilizations and we have a disciplined inventory approach with their channels. So we're going to stay with that range. We're not revising it, but we feel very good about our gross margin performance.

    對於第一季度,我們確實希望將我們的前端利用率再次降低到 85% 左右,這是我們在內部汽車 IP 處理技術等方面仍然受到限制的地方。再一次,我想說,展望未來,我們預計將保持在 55% 至 58% 的長期毛利率預測範圍內,因為我們今天的成本結構在本質上比過去更具可變性。此外,如果您考慮一下,我們的工廠在以正常利用率運行時會變得更有效率,並且我們對他們的渠道採用嚴格的庫存方法。所以我們將保持在這個範圍內。我們沒有修改它,但我們對我們的毛利率表現感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • Kurt, I want to go back to your core Automotive and, I guess, Core Industrial business, not the consumer IoT side. I believe you said the demand was largely holding in well there, except for some of the channel dynamics in China. I guess overall, is that true? Is the core industrial especially holding in? And how do you delineate between the channel weakening and isolating that to a variable other than demand?

    庫爾特,我想回到你的核心汽車,我想是核心工業業務,而不是消費者物聯網方面。我相信你說過除了中國的一些渠道動態外,需求在很大程度上保持良好。我想總的來說,這是真的嗎?核心產業是不是特別在握?您如何區分渠道減弱和將其隔離為需求以外的變量?

  • Obviously, you can see this is coming out of China, and we know the COVID policy. But to the extent it's weakening, people aren't really going to care if the source is coming from (inaudible) having too much inventory or OEM (inaudible). Either way, it's kind of slowing even though the latter could by some sort of a temporary aspect. So any sort of color you could give on your core demand would be helpful?

    顯然,你可以看到這是來自中國的,我們知道 COVID 政策。但就它減弱的程度而言,人們並不真正關心來源是來自(聽不清)庫存過多還是來自 OEM(聽不清)。無論哪種方式,它都在某種程度上放緩,即使後者可能是暫時的。那麼,您可以根據核心需求提供的任何一種顏色都會有所幫助嗎?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Ross. It is actually easier to speak to this in Automotive because we have a much larger portion of direct customers where we can also triangulate with the demand from the OEMs, from the end customers. And we have these discussions actually with all 3 parties on the table. So we cannot be misled by inventory builds or anything from the Tier 1s because we really cleaned this out now all the way to the OEMs and I think what I said to Chris earlier about the optimism on the Auto business through the year is the answer to your question. So there is a short-term disturbance in China, but that's really more about the distributors than anything else when it comes to Automotive.

    是的。謝謝,羅斯。實際上,在汽車行業更容易談論這一點,因為我們擁有更大比例的直接客戶,我們還可以對 OEM 和最終客戶的需求進行三角測量。我們實際上與桌面上的所有 3 個參與方進行了這些討論。因此,我們不能被庫存增加或一級供應商的任何東西所誤導,因為我們現在真的把它一直清理到原始設備製造商,我認為我早些時候對克里斯所說的關於全年汽車業務的樂觀情緒是答案你的問題。所以在中國有一個短期的干擾,但在汽車方面,這更多的是關於經銷商而不是其他任何事情。

  • In Core Industrial, Ross, it is indeed harbor to be that specific because the majority of our business goes through the channel. So it is much harder to say from the perspective of what do we know from end customers really, which is also why into Q1, I'd say also Core Industrial probably drops sequentially. But again, it is very hard to decompose this from the China situation. So it could just be because of this particular China situation since we have such a high exposure in Industrial -- also in Core Industrial to China.

    在 Core Industrial,羅斯,確實如此具體是因為我們的大部分業務都是通過渠道進行的。因此,從我們真正從最終客戶那裡了解什麼的角度來看,很難說,這也是為什麼進入第一季度,我想說 Core Industrial 也可能會依次下降。但同樣,很難從中國的情況中分解出來。所以這可能只是因為中國的這種特殊情況,因為我們在工業領域的曝光度如此之高——在中國的核心工業領域也是如此。

  • I can, however, tell you that the direct accounts in the Core Industrial business, but they are a minor portion of our business. They are holding up quite well. So for that reason, you could say there is some data points, which would tell us that also Core Industrial is robust. But I have -- it's less certain given the channel exposure, which we have in that segment.

    但是,我可以告訴你,核心工業業務中的直接客戶,但它們只占我們業務的一小部分。他們堅持得很好。因此,出於這個原因,您可以說有一些數據點可以告訴我們 Core Industrial 也很強大。但我有 - 考慮到我們在該細分市場中的渠道曝光,它不太確定。

  • Now from a content increase perspective from -- if you think more from a macro perspective, what these applications are doing in critical infrastructure in driving efficiency of industrial customers, I think there is any reason to believe that we should also for Core Industrial continue to be optimistic for the year.

    現在從內容增加的角度來看——如果你從宏觀角度更多地思考,這些應用程序在關鍵基礎設施中為提高工業客戶效率所做的工作,我認為有任何理由相信我們也應該為 Core Industrial 繼續對這一年保持樂觀。

  • Finally, what I said about pricing earlier, pricing for Automotive holds true also for Core Industrial. Similar technologies, similar continued pressure on supply, which is very different, obviously, to the Consumer and Mobile businesses.

    最後,我之前所說的定價,汽車的定價也適用於 Core Industrial。類似的技術,類似的持續供應壓力,這顯然與消費者和移動業務截然不同。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • I guess one kind of on utilization, inventory and gross margin all tied into one for Bill. It's impressive to see that your utilization is dropping and your gross margin is still staying at 58%. I guess, in the DIOs, is there a limit to which you would go on the upside there? I know your long-term target is 95%. I also know that you've been very clear as to why you're going above that right now. But is there a limit to how high you would go on days of inventory internally before you'd really have to ratchet the growth -- the utilization down? And if so, how does that fold into what the gross margin that would be the outcome in that scenario?

    我想對比爾來說,一種關於利用率、庫存和毛利率的因素都捆綁在一起。令人印象深刻的是,您的利用率正在下降,而您的毛利率仍保持在 58%。我想,在 DIO 中,您的上漲是否存在限制?我知道你的長期目標是 95%。我也知道你已經非常清楚為什麼你現在要超越那個。但是,在您真正不得不加快增長(降低利用率)之前,內部庫存的天數是否有限制?如果是這樣,那將如何折算成那種情況下的結果的毛利率?

  • William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Ross. Yes, you are correct in a way that when we look at inventory, we look at both the internal and the channel together. So as you can imagine, right, the channel inventory today at 1.6 months, basically, we can move that up by about another 25 days if we wanted to, to our target of 2.5 months of sale.

    謝謝,羅斯。是的,您是正確的,當我們查看庫存時,我們會同時查看內部和渠道。所以你可以想像,對,今天的渠道庫存為 1.6 個月,基本上,如果我們願意,我們可以將其再提高大約 25 天,達到我們 2.5 個月的銷售目標。

  • Clearly, with the softness in several of the areas, we are monitoring this. We're keeping it strategically on our channel. And as Kurt mentioned, as conditions do approve, we will release some of that and want to go sell-through one-to-one. Now the good news is the inventory we have on hand is all long lived and has very low obsolescence risk. At the same time, I'd say, unfortunately, we're still constrained in several selective nodes.

    顯然,由於幾個領域的疲軟,我們正在對此進行監控。我們將其戰略性地保留在我們的頻道上。正如 Kurt 提到的那樣,如果條件得到批准,我們將發布其中的一些內容,並希望通過一對一的方式進行銷售。現在好消息是我們手頭的庫存都是長期存在的,並且過時風險非常低。同時,我要說的是,不幸的是,我們仍然受限於幾個選擇性節點。

  • Remember, we buy about 60% externally. We do about 40% internally. That 40% really -- more than 2/3 of that internal capacity is linked to Auto and Industrial. So that's going to keep us at nice levels of utilization for the rest of the year. So again, we're going to be more flexible, yet disciplined to support our customer service levels and the potential for future growth. But to give you an example, right, if we have the orders, as Kurt mentioned, and we shipped that $500 million and went to 2.5 months of sales, assuming none of it sells through, this would basically have an effect on our revenue and our COGS and basically say NXP's internal inventory would have been below 90 days.

    請記住,我們從外部購買了大約 60%。我們在內部做大約 40%。這 40% 確實 - 超過 2/3 的內部產能與汽車和工業相關。因此,這將使我們在今年餘下的時間裡保持良好的利用率。因此,我們將再次變得更加靈活,但紀律嚴明,以支持我們的客戶服務水平和未來增長的潛力。但是舉個例子,如果我們有訂單,正如 Kurt 提到的那樣,我們運送了 5 億美元並進行了 2.5 個月的銷售,假設沒有一個銷售出去,這基本上會對我們的收入產生影響,我們的 COGS 基本上說 NXP 的內部庫存將低於 90 天。

  • So you have to look at them combined. We're doing this very proactively and intentionally to prevent inventory buildup. So I think from an internal DIO, if we kept the channel at 1.6, I'm comfortable holding probably another 15 to 20 days on top of the level that you see today.

    所以你必須把它們結合起來看。我們正在非常主動和有意地這樣做,以防止庫存增加。所以我認為,從內部 DIO 的角度來看,如果我們將通道保持在 1.6,我很樂意在你今天看到的水平之上再維持 15 到 20 天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I guess a follow-up question on gross margins. You started the call talking about expectations for higher ASPs given higher input costs. It sounds like you're very optimistic around accelerated growth areas that should benefit mix. You've cut back utilization, and it sounds like that should trend higher over time, and that's focused more on proprietary mixed signal, which I assume, again, is better mix. And then you guided CapEx essentially flat to down year-on-year, which means depreciation shouldn't be moving higher. So the question is this, I guess, are there any kind of headwinds to gross margins that we should be thinking about in '23?

    我想是關於毛利率的後續問題。您開始通話時談到了在投入成本較高的情況下對更高 ASP 的期望。聽起來您對應該有利於混合的加速增長領域非常樂觀。你已經減少了利用率,聽起來隨著時間的推移應該會更高,而且更多地關注專有混合信號,我再次認為這是更好的混合。然後你指導資本支出同比基本持平或下降,這意味著折舊不應該走高。所以問題是,我想,我們在 23 年應該考慮的毛利率是否存在任何不利因素?

  • William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • I mean the only thing I would say that could cause gross margin to go below the long-term model that 55% to 58% is probably a prolonged global recession, that affects all of us, right? But if we're having the -- what we're seeing right now, we think we'll -- we will and plan to stay within that 55% to 58%, C.J.

    我的意思是我唯一要說的可能導致毛利率低於長期模型,即 55% 至 58% 可能是一場長期的全球衰退,這會影響到我們所有人,對嗎?但如果我們擁有 - 我們現在看到的,我們認為我們會 - 我們將併計劃保持在 55% 到 58% 的範圍內,C.J.

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • And I guess as my follow-up, on the Comm Infrastructure and Other line, can you give a little more color on what led to the weakness in December? And how we should be thinking about the different moving parts for that business for all of '23?

    我想作為我的後續行動,在 Comm Infrastructure and Other line 上,你能否對導致 12 月疲軟的原因給出更多的顏色?以及我們應該如何考慮整個 23 年該業務的不同活動部分?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, C.J. I'm Happy to do that. Q4 was purely supply. We were a bit ahead of our, say, skis with the guidance because we know that more supply is coming up, and that's also why Q1 is now going much better. And that -- there were some operational issues and we didn't get it going in Q4. So Q4 fail against guidance had nothing to do with demand, that was purely about a supply base.

    是的,C.J.我很樂意這樣做。第四季度純粹是供應。比方說,我們在指導方面領先於我們的滑雪板,因為我們知道更多的供應即將到來,這也是第一季度現在進展得更好的原因。而且 - 存在一些運營問題,我們沒有在第四季度進行。因此,第四季度未能達到指導與需求無關,這純粹是關於供應基礎。

  • Now going forward, it is indeed such that I would say we are cautious when it comes to the radio power part of the business because the one area where we see build-outs in network infrastructure this year then it's India. So it's all about to what extent at what pace is this going to happen through the year. What is for sure is that it is much more and much faster leaning to gallium nitride versus LDMOS, which is favoring us and we just have to do a good job in increasing our supply capability to actually run up here.

    現在展望未來,我確實會說我們對業務的無線電功率部分持謹慎態度,因為今年我們看到網絡基礎設施建設的一個領域是印度。因此,這完全取決於這一年將在多大程度上以何種速度發生。可以肯定的是,與 LDMOS 相比,它越來越傾向於氮化鎵,這對我們有利,我們只需要做好提高我們的供應能力才能真正達到這裡的水平。

  • The one other piece within this Comm Infra and Other segments, which will matter this year, is actually the RFID tagging, secure and access cards and government identity products. There is a significant amount of pent-up demand C.J., which we could not serve the last 2 years which was our choice. I mean it is a technology which we have to use for other segments and other products. That is a classic demand, which doesn't disappear because it is about infrastructures, it is about government IDs, which people need around the world. So the demand is still there. Now we are actually moving the supply capability from other areas where the demand has softened into this and we are starting to serve it. So from a subsegment dynamic perspective, C.J., think about this part being the one which is actually going to generate growth this year.

    Comm Infra 和其他領域中的另一個部分,今年將很重要,實際上是 RFID 標籤、安全和訪問卡以及政府身份產品。有大量被壓抑的需求 C.J.,我們過去 2 年無法滿足我們的選擇。我的意思是這是我們必須將其用於其他細分市場和其他產品的技術。這是一個典型的需求,它不會消失,因為它是關於基礎設施的,它是關於政府 ID 的,世界各地的人們都需要這些。所以需求還是有的。現在我們實際上正在將供應能力從需求已經減弱的其他地區轉移到這個地區,我們開始為它提供服務。因此,從子細分市場的動態角度來看,C.J. 認為這部分是今年真正會產生增長的部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • I think you've talked about being for your Auto business having backlog coverage for the year with the disruption in China, kind of would you still say that's the case? And as a follow-up, how are you guys thinking about NCNRs on your backlog this year? How flexible are you going to be if, for example, the China situation causes people to want to reschedule deliveries?

    我想你已經談到了你的汽車業務在中國中斷的那一年有積壓報導,你仍然會說是這種情況嗎?作為後續行動,你們如何看待今年積壓的 NCNR?例如,如果中國的情況導致人們想要重新安排交貨時間,您將有多靈活?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. So Joe, first of all, the supply capability through the year. Clearly, the number of escalations has moderated. We still have a number of nastily short technologies. And I would call out 180 nanometers, 9055 gallium nitride and the high-voltage analog mixed signal, which is proprietary to NXP. This is, of course, in size less than it used to be, but it still leads to significant customer escalations and shortages, which we think will go through the year, but hopefully moderating towards the end of the year.

    是的。所以喬,首先是全年的供應能力。顯然,升級的次數有所緩和。我們仍然有許多令人討厭的短技術。我會調用 180 納米、9055 氮化鎵和 NXP 專有的高壓模擬混合信號。當然,這在規模上比以前要小,但它仍然會導致客戶數量大幅增加和短缺,我們認為這將持續到今年,但希望在年底前有所緩和。

  • If we translate this back into supply capability, I think we said on the last call, we would be able to serve about 85% of kind of risk-adjusted backlog for the year. I'd say for this year, for '23, this is now more like 90% to 95%. So you see it's better. It's not yet on target. We are not yet in a position that we have visibility to serve everything we want, but we are coming closer.

    如果我們將其轉化為供應能力,我想我們在上次電話會議上說過,我們將能夠為今年約 85% 的風險調整積壓服務提供服務。我會說今年,對於 23 年,現在更像是 90% 到 95%。所以你看它更好。它還沒有達到目標。我們還沒有達到可以為我們想要的一切提供服務的可見性,但我們正在接近。

  • Now you might be confused with the high DIO and still me saying that we can't serve Automotive. The matter of the fact is that if you would pass it the DIO in 2 segments. And I mean, I will not give you numbers, but the auto part of it, so the product which is specific to the lease in Automotive is actually well below target. So it's just very variable between the segments, and it's not fungible, as you know.

    現在您可能對高 DIO 感到困惑,而我仍然說我們不能為汽車服務。事實上,如果您將 DIO 分兩段傳遞給它。我的意思是,我不會給你數字,而是它的汽車部分,所以特定於汽車租賃的產品實際上遠低於目標。所以它只是在細分市場之間變化很大,而且它是不可替代的,正如你所知。

  • Now that leads me to the second part of your questions around NCNRs. I gave you one example earlier where we have very strictly executed NCNRs and that was the Mobile last year, which indeed is a bit of a headwind now getting into this year because product was not fungible. I mean it's customized in software, so there was no way to let customers of the book. Going through this year, there is not a one-fits-all answer, Joe. So I'd say we are flexible if the product is fungible. I mean we do not force one customer to absolutely take it if we can at the same moment, sell the same product to somebody else. I mean, that wouldn't make sense.

    現在,這讓我進入你關於 NCNR 的問題的第二部分。我之前給你舉了一個例子,我們非常嚴格地執行了 NCNR,那就是去年的 Mobile,現在進入今年確實有點不利,因為產品是不可替代的。我的意思是它是在軟件中定制的,所以沒有辦法讓這本書的客戶。經歷了這一年,沒有一個千篇一律的答案,喬。所以我想說如果產品是可替代的,我們是靈活的。我的意思是,如果我們可以同時將相同的產品賣給其他人,我們不會強迫一個客戶絕對接受它。我的意思是,那沒有意義。

  • We are very strict if it would go against any take-or-pay liabilities, which we have to our suppliers. I mean there is no way we would let our customers off the hook. Then it depends on overriding commercial agreements, which we have with customers, in some cases, which might be of forcing functions. And then -- and that's especially in Automotive, which is a large part of our NCNR backlog. We are working with ODMs. So if a Tier 1 comes to me and says, I want to discuss about the NCNR level, I say, okay, then we discussed together with your end customer. And we want to understand if that is in the best interest also for the end customer which puts quite a bit of pressure on the system and actually enforces some of the NCNR through that channel.

    如果它違背我們對供應商承擔的任何照付不議的責任,我們會非常嚴格。我的意思是我們絕不會讓我們的客戶擺脫困境。然後它取決於我們與客戶簽訂的壓倒性商業協議,在某些情況下,這可能具有強制功能。然後——尤其是在汽車領域,這是我們 NCNR 積壓工作的很大一部分。我們正在與 ODM 合作。因此,如果第 1 層來找我說,我想討論 NCNR 級別,我說,好吧,然後我們與您的最終客戶一起討論。我們想了解這是否也符合最終客戶的最佳利益,最終客戶會給系統帶來相當大的壓力,並且實際上會通過該渠道強制執行一些 NCNR。

  • So you will see -- I cannot say the 100% always in force. We would not do this where you would see that we create a problem for ourselves later. I mean that's the same philosophy, which we are applying with the travel inventory. Why would we? I mean that wouldn't be smart. But in many cases, we still do, given the dynamics I just mentioned.

    所以你會看到——我不能說 100% 總是有效。我們不會這樣做,因為您會發現我們以後會給自己製造麻煩。我的意思是這與我們在旅行庫存中應用的理念相同。為什麼我們會?我的意思是那不會很聰明。但在很多情況下,考慮到我剛才提到的動態,我們仍然這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from William Stein with Truist.

    我們的下一個問題來自 William Stein 和 Truist。

  • William Stein - MD

    William Stein - MD

  • The last couple of questions in particular are very helpful in understanding the sort of shape of demand. I'm hoping maybe we can talk a little bit about longer-term competitive dynamics, in particular, in the Automotive end market, you seem to be doing well in these growth areas. But Kurt, I'm hoping you can talk more about your position with the emerging Chinese OEMs, which especially in EVs have started to deliver some very strong growth. Can you compare your competitive positioning with those OEMs relative to how you've done historically with the bigger global ones?

    最後幾個問題特別有助於理解需求的形狀。我希望也許我們可以談談長期競爭動態,特別是在汽車終端市場,你似乎在這些增長領域做得很好。但庫爾特,我希望你能更多地談談你對新興中國原始設備製造商的看法,尤其是在電動汽車領域,它們已經開始實現非常強勁的增長。您能否將您與這些原始設備製造商的競爭定位與您在歷史上與更大的全球廠商的競爭定位進行比較?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • While -- Will, while I cannot speak on a customer-specific level, obviously, I dare to say when I look at the win rates and the shipment rates, we are very well balanced when it comes to EVs, both geographically but also between, say, big OEMs and start-ups. And that has been an attention point for me right from the start because actually, many years back already I always thought that China might become a leading force in electrification, given that they didn't have the legacy to change their companies from combustion engines to electric drivetrains. I mean that is a significant advantage.

    雖然 - 威爾,雖然我不能在特定於客戶的層面上發言,但顯然,當我查看贏率和出貨率時,我敢說,我們在電動汽車方面非常平衡,無論是在地理上還是在兩者之間,比如說,大型原始設備製造商和初創企業。這從一開始就引起了我的注意,因為實際上,很多年前我就一直認為中國可能會成為電氣化的主導力量,因為他們沒有將公司從內燃機轉變為電動傳動系統。我的意思是這是一個顯著的優勢。

  • And so for many years already, we tried to stay very close to start-up companies, which, by the way, is not just in China, but that's often between China and California. I mean there is a lot of combined companies there. So, no, I would not say that we have a, if you will, negative buyers only to the big guys and would not participate in the growth provided by start-ups, which largely are in China. It has also to do with our product portfolio, Will. I mean, we are so broad and so leading in automotive, how would we only work with one part of the market. It's almost impossible. So no, that's not the case. I'm optimistic here.

    因此,多年來,我們一直試圖與初創公司保持密切聯繫,順便說一句,這些公司不僅在中國,而且通常在中國和加利福尼亞之間。我的意思是那裡有很多聯合公司。所以,不,我不會說我們只有大公司的負面買家,不會參與主要在中國的初創企業提供的增長。這也與我們的產品組合有關,Will。我的意思是,我們在汽車領域如此廣泛且如此領先,我們如何只與市場的一部分合作。這幾乎是不可能的。所以不,事實並非如此。我在這裡很樂觀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Matt Ramsay 和 Cowen。

  • Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Kurt, in your prepared script, you referenced the model from the Analyst Day sort of the $15 billion in revenue in 2024, and sort of reiterated the targets for sort of the core business and the new growth areas. But as we start on a sort of $12 billion run rate, and I know a couple of the segments are really down in the first quarter. But just on an annualized basis, I think we need to get to 6%, 7% growth or something like that for this year and next to hit that target. So maybe you could just give us a little more color on the specific drivers, not just in the next quarter or 2, given the volatility, but over the next, like, 24, 36 months of how you see getting there from where we're starting?

    庫爾特,在你準備好的劇本中,你引用了分析師日的模型,即 2024 年 150 億美元的收入,並重申了核心業務和新增長領域的目標。但是當我們以 120 億美元的運行率開始時,我知道有幾個部分在第一季度確實下降了。但僅按年率計算,我認為今年和明年我們需要達到 6%、7% 或類似的增長率才能實現該目標。所以也許你可以給我們更多關於特定驅動因素的顏色,不僅僅是在下一個或第二個季度,考慮到波動性,而是在接下來的 24、36 個月裡,你如何看待我們從哪裡到達那裡'重新開始?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, Matt. So indeed, I mean, the Q1, given China and everything we discussed in the last 25 minutes is indeed a bit of a -- probably a bit of an outlier. I think the growth rates, which contribute to the 8% to 12% for the company, being led by Automotive and Industrial IoT, that is still how we look at the growth for the next 3 years. So we do believe that if you look across NXP, the content increases and our strong position in Automotive will let automotive growth above corporate average. I think we said 9% to 14% relative to the 8% to 12% for the total. Since this is half of the company, Matthew will understand that, that has a significant dynamic for us.

    是的,馬特。因此,我的意思是,考慮到中國以及我們在過去 25 分鐘內討論的所有內容,第一季度確實有點——可能有點異常。我認為,在汽車和工業物聯網的引領下,公司的增長率為 8% 至 12%,這仍然是我們看待未來 3 年增長的方式。所以我們確實相信,如果你縱觀恩智浦,內容會增加,我們在汽車領域的強勢地位將使汽車行業的增長高於公司平均水平。我想我們說的是 9% 到 14%,相對於總數的 8% 到 12%。由於這是公司的一半,馬修會明白,這對我們來說具有重要的動力。

  • And in Automotive, it's also fair to say, and I gave you some details for last year that pricing is a positive further contributing element, which maybe was not always fully comprehended in the initial forecast.

    在汽車行業,也可以公平地說,去年我給了你一些細節,定價是一個積極的進一步貢獻因素,這在最初的預測中可能並不總是被完全理解。

  • And in a similar way, I would speak to Core Industrial, mind you, that is 60% of the Industrial IoT segment. There, indeed, and that's maybe where your question was going to the more cyclical businesses being the consumer IoT as part of industrial IoT segment as well as Mobile, there it will all depend on timing. I mean we really have to see what the timing of a rebound is going to be. Where at the same time, if you look at history of these segments, they are very fast moving.

    以類似的方式,請注意,我會與 Core Industrial 交談,這是工業物聯網領域的 60%。的確,這可能就是你的問題是轉向更具週期性的業務,即消費者物聯網作為工業物聯網領域的一部分以及移動,這一切都取決於時間。我的意思是,我們真的必須看看反彈的時機。同時,如果您查看這些細分市場的歷史,它們的發展速度非常快。

  • I mean you can very quickly have significant changes through the quarters, especially when China makes a move. But again, strategically, I think the growth algorithm guiding us to the 8% to 12% for the company is pretty much intact. There possibly automotive has a bit more momentum even than we would have anticipated in the first place.

    我的意思是你可以很快在幾個季度內發生重大變化,尤其是當中國採取行動時。但同樣,從戰略上講,我認為指導我們實現公司 8% 至 12% 增長的算法幾乎完好無損。汽車行業的發展勢頭可能比我們最初預期的要大一些。

  • Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. Just a quick follow-up for Bill. You guys pretty tight on OpEx in the first quarter. I think maybe a tiny bit above the 16% and 7% of revenue that you sort of laid out in the model, Bill, but on a pretty big down revenue quarter in a couple of segments, we potentially reaccelerate off the bottom in a couple of the segments that are challenged in China. Have you -- are you going to reaccelerate OpEx at the same rate? Or is there a sort of -- how should we think about that into the back half as the revenue potentially recovers?

    知道了。只是對比爾的快速跟進。你們在第一季度對 OpEx 非常緊張。我認為可能略高於你在模型中列出的 16% 和 7% 的收入,比爾,但在幾個細分市場的收入大幅下降的季度,我們可能會在幾個細分市場中重新加速走出底部在中國面臨挑戰的細分市場。你有——你打算以同樣的速度重新加速運營支出嗎?還是有一種——隨著收入可能恢復,我們應該如何考慮後半部分?

  • William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Matt. Let me address operating expenses. I think we continue to manage our operating expenses pretty well with the uncertainty in the macro markets. So in Q4, we were a bit more favorable than our guidance driven by the lower variable compensation, and we managed our discretionary spend. In Q1, we're keeping our OpEx relatively flattish, I would say despite you all know the typical headwind that we experienced in the U.S. employee benefit rates and so forth. So we're doing a good job there.

    謝謝,馬特。讓我談談運營費用。我認為在宏觀市場存在不確定性的情況下,我們將繼續很好地管理我們的運營費用。因此,在第四季度,由於可變薪酬較低,我們比我們的指導更有利,並且我們管理了可自由支配的支出。在第一季度,我們的 OpEx 保持相對平穩,儘管你們都知道我們在美國員工福利率等方面遇到的典型逆風。所以我們在那裡做得很好。

  • And as I mentioned in my opening remarks, we are going to navigate and control our spend. It's one of those levers that we have. And for 2023, I'd say we'll plan for the full year to make sure that we're below that 23% for modeling purposes. So maybe a quarter here, it may go out of balance, but for the full year, we expect to be within 23%.

    正如我在開場白中提到的,我們將引導和控制我們的支出。這是我們擁有的槓桿之一。對於 2023 年,我想說我們將計劃全年以確保我們低於 23% 用於建模目的。所以也許這裡有四分之一,它可能會失衡,但對於全年,我們預計會在 23% 以內。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Stacy -- yes, sir?

    我們的下一個問題來自斯泰西——是的,先生?

  • Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

    Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

  • That will be our last question. We'd like to pass it over to Kurt for some final remarks -- get right here to the end.

    這將是我們的最後一個問題。我們想將其轉交給 Kurt 進行最後的評論 — 就到這裡結束吧。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Thank you -- thank you very much, Jeff. Now as we have discussed, clearly, the level of uncertainty currently is higher than what we've had through the past couple of quarters. The stance we take is that we want to be prudent and disciplined to those elements, which are in our control. We just discussed about OpEx. But much more importantly, I think this is all about inventory management. There, we don't want to be blocked by a lot of over shipping into the channel and not having a [deal] anymore what the true end demand is. So that's why we focused on this call and also for our guide very much on that approach.

    是的。謝謝 - 非常感謝,傑夫。正如我們所討論的那樣,很明顯,目前的不確定性水平高於過去幾個季度的水平。我們採取的立場是,我們希望對那些在我們控制範圍內的因素保持謹慎和自律。我們剛剛討論了 OpEx。但更重要的是,我認為這全都與庫存管理有關。在那裡,我們不想被渠道中的大量過度運輸所阻礙,並且不再有 [交易] 真正的最終需求是什麼。因此,這就是為什麼我們專注於此電話會議以及我們的指南非常關注該方法的原因。

  • For the channel, which mind you, is more than 50% for NXP, more than 50% of our revenues are going through the channel. So that discussion is a very important piece for us. With that, we are actually in a position to certainly navigate in a good way through this period of uncertainty and at the same time, remain very prepared for a potential rebound which we think could happen in the time to come, especially in China when the infection rates come down again after this policy change. With that, thanks for your attention. Thank you very much. I speak to you all soon. Thank you.

    對於渠道,請注意,恩智浦超過 50%,我們超過 50% 的收入都通過渠道。因此,該討論對我們來說非常重要。有了這一點,我們實際上能夠以良好的方式度過這段不確定時期,同時,為我們認為可能在未來發生的潛在反彈做好充分準備,尤其是在中國政策變化後感染率再次下降。感謝您的關注。非常感謝你。我很快就會和你們說話。謝謝你。

  • Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

    Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

  • Thank you, everyone. We can disconnect now. .

    謝謝大家。我們現在可以斷開連接了。 .

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program, and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

    感謝您的參與。這確實結束了程序,你們都可以斷開連接。大家,祝你有美好的一天。