恩智浦 (NXPI) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NXP First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Palmer, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    美好的一天,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加恩智浦 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者,投資者關係高級副總裁 Jeff Palmer。請繼續。

  • Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

    Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Katherine, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to NXP Semiconductors' First Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. With me on the call today is Kurt Sievers, NXP's President and CEO; and Bill Betz, our CFO.

    謝謝你,凱瑟琳,大家早上好。歡迎參加恩智浦半導體 2022 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是恩智浦總裁兼首席執行官 Kurt Sievers;還有我們的首席財務官 Bill Betz。

  • The call today is being recorded and will be available for replay from our corporate website. Today's call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, the macroeconomic impact on specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products and our expectations for financial results for the second quarter of 2022.

    今天的通話正在錄音中,可從我們的公司網站重播。今天的電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述,這些風險和不確定性可能導致恩智浦的業績與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於關於 COVID-19 大流行對我們業務的持續影響、對我們經營所在的特定終端市場的宏觀經濟影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們對2022年第二季度財務業績。

  • Please be reminded that NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements. For a full disclosure on forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release. Additionally, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are driven primarily by discrete events that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance.

    請注意,恩智浦不承擔公開修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。有關前瞻性陳述的完整披露,請參閱我們的新聞稿。此外,我們將參考某些非公認會計原則財務指標,這些指標主要由管理層認為與恩智浦基本核心運營業績不直接相關的離散事件驅動。

  • Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our first quarter 2022 earnings press release, which will be furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K and is available on NXP's website in the Investor Relations section at nxp.com.

    根據 G 條例,恩智浦在我們的 2022 年第一季度收益新聞稿中提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬,該新聞稿將以 8-K 表形式提供給 SEC,並可在恩智浦網站上查閱在 nxp.com 的投資者關係部分。

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to Kurt.

    我現在想把電話轉給 Kurt。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today, and I can tell you, after 2 years, finally, I do very much look forward to a series of in-person investor meetings through the rest of this week. Now let me begin with a review of our quarter 1 performance. Our revenue was $36 million better than the midpoint of our guidance with automotive, industrial, IoT and mobile at or above our guidance.

    謝謝你,傑夫,大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議,我可以告訴您,2 年後,終於,我非常期待在本週剩下的時間裡舉行一系列面對面的投資者會議。現在讓我先回顧一下我們第一季度的表現。我們的收入比我們指導的中點高出 3600 萬美元,其中汽車、工業、物聯網和移動設備達到或高於我們的指導。

  • So trends in the communication infrastructure markets were just slightly below our expectations due to supply issues. Taken together, NXP delivered quarter 1 revenue of $3.14 billion, an increase of 22% year-on-year. Non-GAAP operating margin in quarter 1 was a strong 35.7%, 480 basis points better than the year ago period and about 70 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance.

    因此,由於供應問題,通信基礎設施市場的趨勢略低於我們的預期。總的來說,恩智浦第一季度的收入為 31.4 億美元,同比增長 22%。第一季度非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 35.7%,比去年同期高出 480 個基點,比我們的指導中點高出約 70 個基點。

  • Our results reflect strong execution with good operating leverage and profit fall through on higher revenue, improved gross profit and modestly lower operating expenses.

    我們的業績反映了強勁的執行力和良好的經營槓桿,而利潤因收入增加、毛利潤提高和經營費用適度降低而下降。

  • Now let me turn to the specific trends in our focus end markets. In automotive, revenue was $1.56 billion, up 27% year-on-year, in line with our guidance. In industrial and IoT, revenue was $682 million, up 19% year-on-year better than our guidance. In mobile, revenue was $401 million, up 16% year-on-year better than our guidance.

    現在讓我談談我們關注的終端市場的具體趨勢。在汽車領域,收入為 15.6 億美元,同比增長 27%,符合我們的預期。在工業和物聯網方面,收入為 6.82 億美元,同比增長 19%,高於我們的預期。在移動領域,收入為 4.01 億美元,同比增長 16%,高於我們的預期。

  • Lastly, Communication Infrastructure and other was $496 million, up 18% year-on-year just modestly below guidance as a result of ongoing supply changes. Overall, the demand in our strategic end markets continues to be robust, putting our customers' requirements in excess of our improved supply capability.

    最後,由於持續的供應變化,通信基礎設施和其他方面為 4.96 億美元,同比增長 18%,略低於指導水平。總體而言,我們戰略終端市場的需求持續強勁,客戶的需求超過了我們改進的供應能力。

  • And in that context, let me provide some data points of what we see in our daily engagements with our customers. In the distribution channel, which services about half of our total revenue, inventory remains stubbornly below our long-term targets. During quarter 1, the months of supply in the channel was 1.5 months, which is about a month below our long-term target.

    在這種情況下,讓我提供一些我們在與客戶的日常互動中看到的數據點。在為我們大約一半的總收入提供服務的分銷渠道中,庫存仍然頑固地低於我們的長期目標。在第一季度,該渠道的供應月數為 1.5 個月,比我們的長期目標低了大約一個月。

  • And it is now the sixth consecutive quarter of an exceedingly tight supply situation in the channel. Internal inventory days continue to be below our long-term target of 95 days. In quarter 1, DIO increased by 6 days with all of the increase in support of our growth outlook for the second quarter. Lead times across the board continue to be extended, with more than 80% of all of our products being quoted at 52 weeks or greater.

    現在是該渠道連續第六個季度供應極度緊張的情況。內部庫存天數繼續低於我們 95 天的長期目標。在第一季度,DIO 增加了 6 天,所有這些增加都支持我們對第二季度的增長前景。全面的交貨時間繼續延長,我們所有產品中超過 80% 的報價為 52 週或更長時間。

  • Essentially, we are supply constrained for all of 2022. The level of inbound supply-related customer escalations continues to be elevated across all focused end markets and regions. And lastly, let me zoom in on the trends we see in the automotive market. In the U.S., new car inventory at dealers is substantially below historic levels at 27 days versus the historic metric of 64 days.

    從本質上講,我們在 2022 年全年都受到供應限制。在所有重點終端市場和地區,與入境供應相關的客戶升級水平繼續提高。最後,讓我放大一下我們在汽車市場上看到的趨勢。在美國,經銷商的新車庫存 27 天遠低於歷史水平,而歷史指標為 64 天。

  • The pace to xEV vehicle penetration globally continues to rapidly accelerate hitting 19% of global production in 2021 and is expected to hit 23% penetration in 2022 and moving to 30% next year in 2023.

    全球 xEV 汽車滲透率繼續快速加快,到 2021 年將達到全球產量的 19%,預計 2022 年將達到 23%,到 2023 年將達到 30%。

  • With xEVs having roughly 2x to semiconductor content, this is another strong secular tailwind to semiconductor content growth. The Ukraine war has disrupted predominantly European Tier 1 suppliers and OEMs with shortages of wiring harnesses. In China, the COVID-related shutdowns are creating yet another level of significant supply uncertainty.

    xEV 的半導體含量大約是 2 倍,這是半導體含量增長的另一個強勁的長期順風。由於線束短缺,烏克蘭戰爭主要擾亂了歐洲一級供應商和原始設備製造商。在中國,與 COVID 相關的停工正在造成另一個嚴重的供應不確定性。

  • The extended auto supply chain continues to be very lean, with reported days of inventory at the Tier 1s and at the auto OEMs out of sync with each other.

    擴展的汽車供應鏈仍然非常精簡,據報導,一級供應商和汽車原始設備製造商的庫存天數彼此不同步。

  • And lastly, based on our very frequent and detailed customer conversations across the supply chain, the Tier 1s and OEMs continue to be challenged by kitting issues to complete module and vehicle assemblies. These kitting issues are not due to 1 semi supplier or shortage of just 1 common [golden screw device]. Against all of this dynamic backdrop, our first quarter was a very good beginning to what we view will be a positive year for NXP.

    最後,根據我們在整個供應鏈中非常頻繁和詳細的客戶對話,Tier 1 和 OEM 繼續面臨完成模塊和車輛裝配的配套問題。這些配套問題不是由於 1 個半供應商或僅缺少 1 個通用 [金螺絲裝置]。在所有這些動態背景下,我們的第一季度是一個非常好的開始,我們認為對恩智浦來說將是積極的一年。

  • In the face of the loaded customer escalations and elevated lead times, we are proactively and relentlessly working with our customers to redirect material to assure that customers get what they need, where they needed and when they needed. And zooming out, customers have begun to much better appreciate and embrace the strategic value of semiconductors play in their long-term success both from an innovation as well as a supply perspective.

    面對加載的客戶升級和延長的交貨時間,我們積極而不懈地與客戶合作,重新定向材料,以確保客戶在他們需要的地方和時間得到他們需要的東西。從創新和供應的角度來看,客戶已經開始更好地欣賞和接受半導體在其長期成功中所發揮的戰略價值。

  • Hence, as a result of our adaptability, the level of engagements with strategic customers is resulting in unprecedented levels of customer intimacy. Our engagements are unlocking new and significant long-term customer arrangements and cooperation that is closer than ever, which will enhance our relative market share over the longer term.

    因此,由於我們的適應性,與戰略客戶的互動水平正在導致前所未有的客戶親密度。我們的合作正在開啟新的、重要的長期客戶安排和比以往更緊密的合作,這將在長期內提高我們的相對市場份額。

  • Now let me turn to our expectations for quarter 2. We are guiding revenue at $3.28 billion, up about 26% versus the second quarter of '22 within a range of up 22% to up 30% year-on-year. From a sequential perspective, this represents growth of about 4% at the midpoint versus the prior quarter.

    現在讓我談談我們對第二季度的預期。我們的指導收入為 32.8 億美元,與 22 年第二季度相比增長約 26%,同比增長 22% 至 30%。從連續的角度來看,這意味著中點與上一季度相比增長了約 4%。

  • At the midpoint, we anticipate the following trends in our business: Automotive is expected to be up in the low 30% range versus quarter 2, 2021 and up in the high-single digits range versus quarter 1, 2022.

    在中點,我們預計我們的業務將出現以下趨勢:與 2021 年第 2 季度相比,汽車行業預計將在 30% 的較低範圍內增長,與 2022 年第 1 季度相比,預計將在高個位數範圍內增長。

  • Industrial and IoT is expected to be up in the low 20% range year-on-year and up in the low single digits range versus quarter 1, 2022. Mobile is expected to be up in the low double-digit range year-on-year and down in the low single-digit range versus quarter 1, 2022. And finally, Communication Infrastructure and Other is expected to be up about 20% versus the same period a year ago and flattish on a sequential basis.

    與 2022 年第一季度相比,工業和物聯網預計將同比增長 20% 的低位,並在低個位數範圍內增長。預計移動設備將同比增長在兩位數的低位 -與 2022 年第一季度相比,在低個位數範圍內下降。最後,通信基礎設施和其他預計將比去年同期增長約 20%,並且環比持平。

  • Our guidance incorporates several items to be aware of. First, the year-on-year comparison of our auto business in the second quarter benefits from the easy compare versus quarter 2, 2021 when we were impacted by the effects of the winter storms on our wafer manufacturing facilities in Texas.

    我們的指南包含幾個需要注意的事項。首先,我們第二季度汽車業務的同比比較得益於與 2021 年第二季度的簡單比較,當時我們受到冬季風暴對德克薩斯州晶圓製造設施的影響。

  • Second, our Tianjin back-end facility in China is fully running at maximum capacity. Remember, we lost about 1 to 2 weeks of output during the early part of quarter 1.

    其次,我們在中國的天津後端設施正以最大產能全面運行。請記住,在第一季度初期,我們損失了大約 1 到 2 週的產出。

  • And lastly, our guidance does contemplate several tens of millions of dollars of potential supply and logistical disruptions due to the lockdowns occurring in China related to COVID outbreaks. Now before I pass the call to Bill, I would like to provide an update on our ESG journey, something our management team and I are personally committed to.

    最後,我們的指導確實考慮了由於中國發生與 COVID 爆發相關的封鎖而造成的數千萬美元的潛在供應和物流中斷。現在,在我將電話轉給比爾之前,我想提供有關我們 ESG 旅程的最新信息,這是我們的管理團隊和我個人承諾的事情。

  • On April 1, we published our annual corporate sustainability report, which included the achievement of several goals. On a year-over-year basis, we have reduced our normalized carbon footprint by 11% and have increased the use of renewable electricity in our facilities to 31% of our total consumption. Additionally, we have realized an 11% normalized decrease in our water consumption and 76% increase in our recycling efforts.

    4 月 1 日,我們發布了年度企業可持續發展報告,其中包括幾個目標的實現情況。與去年同期相比,我們將標準化碳足跡減少了 11%,並將我們設施中可再生電力的使用量增加到總消耗量的 31%。此外,我們的用水量正常減少了 11%,回收工作增加了 76%。

  • These are all solid and positive steps, but I believe we can and should do more. Looking forward, we have committed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2035. We have formally committed in the science-based targets initiative, and we are transitioning toward 100% renewable energy sources in our facilities. This will all be a significant task for our organization, and we are committed to providing regular updates documenting our progress.

    這些都是堅實而積極的步驟,但我相信我們可以而且應該做得更多。展望未來,我們已承諾到 2035 年實現碳中和。我們已正式承諾以科學為基礎的目標倡議,我們正在向設施中 100% 的可再生能源過渡。這對我們的組織來說都是一項重大任務,我們致力於提供定期更新來記錄我們的進展。

  • From a global employee perspective, we grew by 8% during 2021, despite a difficult talent market and women now represent 37% of our total employee population. To keep the organization focused on the sustainability journey, I am proud to announce Jennifer Wuamett, our General Counsel, has been named NXP's Chief Sustainability Officer, and she will oversee our sustainability program.

    從全球員工的角度來看,儘管人才市場困難重重,但我們在 2021 年仍增長了 8%,女性現在占我們員工總數的 37%。為了讓組織始終專注於可持續發展之旅,我很自豪地宣布,我們的總法律顧問 Jennifer Wuamett 已被任命為恩智浦的首席可持續發展官,她將監督我們的可持續發展計劃。

  • Finally, to demonstrate that we, as an organization, are all responsible to improve the impact we have in our environment, the NXP Board has approved that a portion of our employee annual incentive compensation will be tied to achieving progress towards long-term sustainability goals.

    最後,為了證明我們作為一個組織都有責任改善我們對環境的影響,恩智浦董事會已批准,我們員工年度激勵薪酬的一部分將與實現長期可持續發展目標的進展掛鉤.

  • Now in summary, the robust growth we have anticipated for 2022 is materializing in spite of all supply challenges. We do continue to see strong customer demand, especially our company-specific accelerated growth drivers. Overall, demand continues to outstrip increased supply and inventory across all end markets remains very lean. And with that, I would like to pass the call over to you, Bill, for a review of our financial performance. Bill?

    現在總而言之,儘管面臨所有供應挑戰,我們對 2022 年的強勁增長正在實現。我們確實繼續看到強勁的客戶需求,尤其是我們公司特有的加速增長動力。總體而言,需求繼續超過供應增加,所有終端市場的庫存仍然非常稀少。有了這個,我想把電話轉給你,比爾,審查我們的財務業績。賬單?

  • William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Kurt, and good morning to everyone on today's call. As Kurt has already covered the drivers of the revenue during Q1 and provided our revenue outlook for Q2, I'll move to the financial highlights.

    謝謝你,庫爾特,今天電話會議上的每個人早上好。由於庫爾特已經涵蓋了第一季度收入的驅動因素並提供了我們對第二季度的收入前景,我將轉向財務亮點。

  • Overall, our Q1 financial performance was very good. Revenue was $36 million above the midpoint of our guidance range and both non-GAAP gross profit and non-GAAP operating profit were near the high end of our guidance. Now moving to the details of Q1. Total revenue was $3.14 billion, up 22% year-on-year and above the midpoint of our guidance range.

    總體而言,我們第一季度的財務表現非常好。收入比我們指導範圍的中點高出 3600 萬美元,非 GAAP 毛利潤和非 GAAP 營業利潤都接近我們指導的高端。現在轉到第一季度的細節。總收入為 31.4 億美元,同比增長 22%,高於我們指導範圍的中點。

  • We generated $1.81 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 57.6%, which is up 340 basis points year-on-year and both above the midpoint of our guidance range, driven by the improved utilization, higher revenue and positive product mix.

    我們創造了 18.1 億美元的非 GAAP 毛利潤,報告的非 GAAP 毛利率為 57.6%,同比增長 340 個基點,均高於我們指導範圍的中點,這得益於利用率提高、更高收入和積極的產品組合。

  • Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $688 million or 21.9% of sales, up $88 million year-on-year and up $7 million from Q4, which was below our midpoint of guidance and below our long-term model. From a total operating profit perspective, non-GAAP operating profit was $1.12 billion and non-GAAP operating margin was 35.7%, up 400 basis points year-on-year and both at the high end of our guidance range, reflecting solid fall-through and operating leverage on the increased revenue levels.

    非美國通用會計準則運營費用總額為 6.88 億美元,佔銷售額的 21.9%,同比增長 8800 萬美元,比第四季度增長 700 萬美元,低於我們的指導中點和我們的長期模型。從總營業利潤的角度來看,非美國通用會計準則營業利潤為 11.2 億美元,非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 35.7%,同比增長 400 個基點,均處於我們指導範圍的高端,反映了穩健的下滑以及增加收入水平的經營槓桿。

  • Non-GAAP interest expense was $103 million with cash taxes for ongoing operations of $122 million and noncontrolling interest was $9 million. Furthermore, our stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP earnings was $89 million. Now I would like to turn to the changes in our cash and debt. Our total debt at the end of Q1 was $10.57 billion, flat sequentially.

    非公認會計原則的利息支出為 1.03 億美元,持續經營的現金稅為 1.22 億美元,非控制性權益為 900 萬美元。此外,我們的非公認會計原則收益中未包括的基於股票的薪酬為 8900 萬美元。現在我想談談我們的現金和債務的變化。我們在第一季度末的總債務為 105.7 億美元,與上一季度持平。

  • Our ending cash position was $2.68 billion, down $147 million sequentially due to capital returns and increased CapEx investments during Q1. The resulting net debt was $7.89 billion, and we exited the quarter with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $4.58 billion. Our ratio of net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at the end of Q1 was 1.7x, and our 12-month adjusted EBITDA interest coverage was 12x.

    由於資本回報和第一季度資本支出增加,我們的期末現金頭寸為 26.8 億美元,環比減少 1.47 億美元。由此產生的淨債務為 78.9 億美元,我們在本季度結束時的 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 為 45.8 億美元。我們在第一季度末的淨債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.7 倍,我們 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 利息覆蓋率為 12 倍。

  • Turning to working capital metrics. Days of inventory was 89 days, an increase of 6 days sequentially. The increase in inventory was all in raw materials and work in process to support revenue growth and continues to be below our long-term target of 95 days. We continue to closely manage our distribution channel with inventory in the channel at 1.5 months, well below our long-term target. We anticipate the coming year will be very similar to 2021 where customer demand is in excess of incrementally improving supply.

    轉向營運資金指標。庫存天數為89天,環比增加6天。庫存增加全部來自原材料和在製品,以支持收入增長,並繼續低於我們 95 天的長期目標。我們繼續密切管理我們的分銷渠道,渠道庫存為 1.5 個月,遠低於我們的長期目標。我們預計來年將與 2021 年非常相似,屆時客戶需求將超過逐步改善的供應。

  • Days receivable were 27 days, down 1 day sequentially. Days payable were 93 days, an increase of 6 days versus the prior quarter as we continue to increase orders with our suppliers. Taken together, our cash conversion cycle was 23 days, an improvement of 1 day versus the prior quarter, reflecting strong customer demand, solid receivable collections and positioning for customer deliveries for future periods.

    應收天數為 27 天,環比減少 1 天。應付天數為 93 天,與上一季度相比增加了 6 天,因為我們繼續增加與供應商的訂單。總而言之,我們的現金轉換週期為 23 天,比上一季度改善了 1 天,反映了強勁的客戶需求、穩健的應收賬款和未來期間客戶交付的定位。

  • Our working capital management and balance sheet metrics continue to be very strong. Cash flow from operations was $856 million and net CapEx was $279 million, resulting in non-GAAP free cash flow of $577 million. During Q1, we paid $149 million in cash dividends and repurchased $552 million of our shares. Overall, we returned 121% of our non-GAAP free cash flow back to the owners of the company, consistent with our capital allocation strategy.

    我們的營運資金管理和資產負債表指標仍然非常強勁。運營現金流為 8.56 億美元,資本支出淨額為 2.79 億美元,非 GAAP 自由現金流為 5.77 億美元。在第一季度,我們支付了 1.49 億美元的現金股息並回購了 5.52 億美元的股票。總體而言,我們將 121% 的非公認會計原則自由現金流返還給了公司所有者,這與我們的資本配置策略一致。

  • And again, the cash flow generation of this business continues to be excellent. Turning now to our expectations for the second quarter. As Kurt mentioned, we anticipate Q2 revenue to be about $3.28 billion plus or minus about $100 million. At the midpoint, this is up 26% year-on-year and up about 4% sequentially. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be about 57.6% plus or minus 50 basis points.

    再一次,這項業務的現金流產生仍然非常出色。現在轉向我們對第二季度的預期。正如庫爾特所說,我們預計第二季度的收入約為 32.8 億美元,上下浮動約 1 億美元。在中點,同比增長 26%,環比增長約 4%。我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率約為 57.6% 上下 50 個基點。

  • Operating expenses are expected to be about $720 million, plus or minus about $10 million, which is up about 5% sequentially, driven primarily by our annual merit increases. Taken together, we see our non-GAAP operating margin to be 35.7% at the midpoint. We estimate non-GAAP financial expense to be about $103 million and anticipate cash tax related to ongoing operations to be about $154 million or about 14.5% effective cash tax rate, consistent with what we communicated during Analyst Day of 15%.

    運營費用預計約為 7.2 億美元,上下浮動約 1000 萬美元,環比增長約 5%,主要受我們年度績效增長的推動。綜上所述,我們認為我們的非公認會計原則營業利潤率在中點為 35.7%。我們估計非公認會計原則財務費用約為 1.03 億美元,預計與持續運營相關的現金稅約為 1.54 億美元或約 14.5% 的有效現金稅率,這與我們在分析師日傳達的 15% 一致。

  • Noncontrolling interest will be about $13 million. For Q2, we suggest for modeling purposes, we use an average share count of 265 million shares. Finally, I have a few closing comments I'd like to make. First, as Kurt mentioned in his prepared remarks, we have attempted to derisk our Q2 outlook given the uncertain macroeconomic environment and the potential impact on our supply chain. Despite these potential risks, customer demand for NXP products remain very strong in the markets we serve.

    非控股權益約為 1300 萬美元。對於第二季度,出於建模目的,我們建議使用 2.65 億股的平均股數。最後,我想說幾句結束語。首先,正如庫爾特在他準備好的講話中提到的那樣,鑑於不確定的宏觀經濟環境和對我們供應鏈的潛在影響,我們試圖降低我們第二季度的前景。儘管存在這些潛在風險,但在我們服務的市場中,客戶對恩智浦產品的需求仍然非常強勁。

  • Secondly, from a revenue standpoint, we expect our second half revenue to be greater than our first half on an absolute basis, as we continue to work on improving supply. From a modeling perspective, think of a gradual quarterly improvement sequentially through the remainder of 2022. But this improvement is still well short of the demand signals we are seeing and constantly monitoring from our customers.

    其次,從收入的角度來看,我們預計下半年的收入絕對會高於上半年,因為我們將繼續努力改善供應。從建模的角度來看,考慮到 2022 年剩餘時間的逐步季度改進。但這種改進仍然遠遠低於我們從客戶那裡看到並不斷監測的需求信號。

  • Overall, we believe supply will remain constrained and challenging throughout 2022. Lastly, barring any significant supply disruption, we believe our gross margin should trend in a fairly tight range consistent with our performance in the first half of the year.

    總體而言,我們認為供應將在整個 2022 年繼續受到限制和挑戰。最後,除非出現任何重大供應中斷,否則我們認為我們的毛利率應保持在與上半年表現一致的相當窄的範圍內。

  • We continue to see the business as generating strong cash flow, and we will continue to execute to our well-communicated capital allocation strategy consistent with past periods. With that, thank you, and we can now turn it over to the operator for questions.

    我們繼續認為該業務產生了強勁的現金流,我們將繼續執行與過去時期一致的溝通良好的資本分配策略。有了這個,謝謝你,我們現在可以把它交給接線員提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo Securities.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Gary Mobley。

  • Gary Wade Mobley - Senior Analyst

    Gary Wade Mobley - Senior Analyst

  • I noticed in the 10-Q filing that your purchase commitments were down about 10% from the fiscal year '21 end. Was that the high watermark for fiscal year '21 end? Or should we think about NXP perhaps reloading on the purchase commitments?

    我在 10-Q 文件中註意到,您的採購承諾比 21 財年末下降了約 10%。那是21財年結束的高水位線嗎?或者我們是否應該考慮恩智浦重新加載購買承諾?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Gary. So indeed, it came down somewhat, which is simply a consequence of selling that part of it. So it's just the regular revenue, which -- so it was converted into revenue. Going forward, I would not exclude that we might again enter into longer-term obligations with our suppliers, since the context and the environment of the, say, supply-demand situation has not fundamentally changed, which means we are effectively sold out for the rest of this year. And in -- certainly in certain technologies and capacity buckets, we also see that demand will continue to outstrip available supply further into the future so also going into next year.

    是的。加里。所以確實,它有所下降,這只是出售那部分的結果。所以這只是常規收入,所以它被轉換為收入。展望未來,我不排除我們可能會再次與供應商簽訂長期義務,因為供需情況的背景和環境沒有根本改變,這意味著我們實際上已經售罄今年剩下的時間。在 - 當然在某些技術和容量桶中,我們還看到未來需求將繼續超過可用供應,明年也是如此。

  • And with that, yes, I would not exclude that we also enter additional and separate supply commitments to the ones which are in place already.

    因此,是的,我不排除我們還對已經存在的供應承諾進行額外和單獨的供應承諾。

  • Gary Wade Mobley - Senior Analyst

    Gary Wade Mobley - Senior Analyst

  • Bill, I think you mentioned previously that supply chain increases were a headwind to gross margin or tailwind to gross -- excuse me, headwind to gross margin in fiscal year '21, but you would expect it to be a tailwind -- your price increases that is going to be a tailwind for fiscal year '22. Is that still the case? And perhaps if you can quantify that tailwind?

    比爾,我認為你之前提到供應鏈的增加是毛利率的逆風或毛利率的順風——對不起,21 財年毛利率的逆風,但你會期望它是順風——你的價格上漲這將是 22 財年的順風車。還是這樣嗎?也許你可以量化這種順風?

  • William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. What we've mentioned related to pricing from our customers is that we're only passing on the higher input costs and inflationary costs that we're seeing on to our customers related to it. If I look internally, we do about 43% in-house on our front-end manufacturing side. And we are running in the high 90s compared to a year ago when we were in probably the mid 80s.

    當然。我們提到的與客戶定價相關的是,我們只是將我們看到的更高的投入成本和通脹成本轉嫁給與之相關的客戶。如果我從內部看,我們在前端製造方面做了大約 43% 的內部工作。與一年前我們可能處於 80 年代中期相比,我們正處於 90 年代的高峰期。

  • So we're maxed out internally from a utilization standpoint, expect our margins to be, as I indicated in my prepared remarks, to be at these levels, plus or minus the 50 basis points we talk about mix in any given quarter. Our #1 priority is really servicing our customers with as lines are down, escalations are occurring, and we're doing everything possible firsthand for our customers.

    因此,從利用率的角度來看,我們在內部已經達到了極限,正如我在準備好的評論中所指出的那樣,我們的利潤率將處於這些水平,加上或減去我們在任何給定季度談論的組合的 50 個基點。我們的第一要務是真正為我們的客戶提供服務,因為線路中斷,升級正在發生,我們正在為我們的客戶做一切可能的第一手資料。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Kurt, I had a question about just the quality of the demand signals that you're getting from your automotive customers. I believe you mentioned that the days of inventory at Tier 1 and OEMs is out of sync because of kitting issues. I was hoping you could expand on that. And how does that impact your visibility and confidence in shipping to the automotive end market and give you the confidence you are shipping in line with demand.

    Kurt,我有一個關於您從汽車客戶那裡獲得的需求信號質量的問題。我相信您提到,由於配套問題,Tier 1 和 OEM 的庫存天數不同步。我希望你能對此進行擴展。以及這將如何影響您在向汽車終端市場發貨時的知名度和信心,並讓您有信心按照需求發貨。

  • Because when I look at auto semiconductor sales and auto unit production, there is this kind of consistent, almost 40-point delta, which was there last year, and it's probably there in Q1 also. So just what is giving you the confidence that you're shipping in line with demand, right, and that you're not over shipping just given the state of flux among your Tier 1s and OEMs.

    因為當我查看汽車半導體銷售和汽車單位生產時,存在這種一致的、幾乎 40 點的增量,去年就有,而且可能在第一季度也有。因此,正是考慮到您的 1 級和 OEM 之間的不斷變化,您才能夠確信您的發貨符合需求,並且您並沒有過度發貨。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Vivek, Indeed, I mean that question, we also watch that very carefully. And I can tell you from continued very personal experience. So I continue to spend a good time of my work week in escalation calls, especially with automotive and industrial customers.

    Vivek,的確,我的意思是這個問題,我們也非常仔細地觀察。我可以從持續的非常個人的經歷告訴你。因此,我繼續在我的工作周中度過上報電話的美好時光,尤其是與汽車和工業客戶打交道。

  • It is actually to the point now on this kitting that we are here and there redirecting product because it is falling so short in places that we actually go back to other customers and ask if not, they have a few parts, which they only maybe need a week later and then we use that week to redirect the part to somebody else.

    實際上,現在在這個套件上,我們在這里和那裡重新定位產品,因為它在某些地方太短了,以至於我們實際上回到其他客戶並詢問是否沒有,他們有一些零件,他們可能只需要一周後,然後我們利用那一周將部分重定向給其他人。

  • So I think we are extremely close to the pulse of the production of our customers and our customers' customers. So this is a triangular supply relationship with the Tier 1s and the OEMs, which is why I have a very, very high confidence that we are not at all over shipping, but actually barely meeting the demand.

    所以我認為我們非常接近客戶和客戶客戶的生產脈搏。所以這是與一級供應商和原始設備製造商的三角供應關係,這就是為什麼我非常非常有信心我們並沒有過度出貨,但實際上幾乎不能滿足需求。

  • I would actually say Vivek the reduction we have now seen from IHS in the forecast for the SAAR for this year, I think it came down from something like 8% to 9% in the last quarter to now a forecast of only 4.5%, so almost halved. A good part of that is due to semiconductors again. So all of these modulations you see there in terms of possible demand is actually above what we can service anyway.

    我實際上會說 Vivek 我們現在從 IHS 看到的對今年 SAAR 預測的減少,我認為它從上一季度的 8% 到 9% 下降到現在的預測只有 4.5%,所以幾乎減半。其中很大一部分再次歸功於半導體。因此,就可能的需求而言,您在那裡看到的所有這些調製實際上都超出了我們無論如何都能提供的服務。

  • So that's why we still fight day in, day out to try to fill holes and actually meet production demand. Now in -- from a bigger contextual perspective, because you mentioned again this striking delta between SAAR and the -- say, the semi shipments into automotive, it comes back to the same points we had mentioned earlier, which is a massive and accelerated content increase, thanks to the penetration of xEVs. And I have to mention also premium vehicles. So what we did now is we looked at the combination of premium ICE vehicles plus xEVs.

    這就是為什麼我們仍然日復一日地努力填補漏洞並真正滿足生產需求的原因。現在,從更大的背景角度來看,因為你再次提到了 SAAR 與汽車半成品出貨量之間的顯著差異,它又回到了我們之前提到的相同點,這是一個龐大且加速的內容增加,這要歸功於 xEV 的普及。我還不得不提到高級車輛。所以我們現在所做的是我們研究了優質 ICE 車輛和 xEV 的組合。

  • And if you put that in 1 basket, because it has similar levels of semiconductor content, you actually find it's about 30% of the global car production already. And along that is double from the levels we had in 2017 or 2018 pre this whole turmoil. So our content increase continues to be an accelerating very strong factor. Then there is certainly a portion of pricing. There are the NXP-specific share gains, which continue to be very much in check, I would say, with our planning.

    如果你把它放在一個籃子裡,因為它具有相似水平的半導體含量,你實際上發現它已經佔全球汽車產量的 30% 左右。這比我們在整個動蕩之前的 2017 年或 2018 年的水平高出一倍。因此,我們的內容增長仍然是一個非常強勁的加速因素。然後肯定有一部分定價。恩智浦特有的份額增長,我想說,我們的計劃繼續受到很大的控制。

  • And finally, there is this inventory situation across the extended supply chain to actually keep it functional. And I can only say it continues to be dysfunctional. So the overall inventory level across the extended automotive supply chain is still too low, which means the whole thing is totally dysfunctional.

    最後,整個擴展的供應鏈都存在這種庫存情況,以實際保持其功能。我只能說它仍然功能失調。所以整個擴展汽車供應鏈的整體庫存水平仍然太低,這意味著整個事情完全不正常。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Got it. And for my follow-up, Kurt, many investors are worried about some kind of demand slowdown, right, even talking about recession at some point over the next 1 or 2 years. How do you think about your trough gross margins if that were to happen? You have a very interesting hybrid model. So what steps would you take, let's say, semiconductor sales were to go down 5% or 10% hypothetically next year? What Steps would you take? And then how should we think about the bottom in your gross margins?

    知道了。對於我的後續行動,庫爾特,許多投資者擔心某種需求放緩,對,甚至在未來 1 或 2 年的某個時候談論經濟衰退。如果發生這種情況,您如何看待您的低谷毛利率?你有一個非常有趣的混合模型。那麼,假設明年半導體銷售額將下降 5% 或 10%,您會採取哪些措施?你會採取什麼步驟?然後我們應該如何考慮您的毛利率的底部?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, Vivek, I would say, in principle, we don't guide here next year. And in the end, what counts is the model which we have given you in our Investor Day back in November of last year. Yes, I think I can give you a few bits and pieces to this question. Clearly, our gross margin benefits from utilization of our internal facilities at the moment.

    好吧,Vivek,我會說,原則上,我們明年不會在這裡指導。最後,重要的是我們在去年 11 月的投資者日為您提供的模型。是的,我想我可以給你一些關於這個問題的點點滴滴。顯然,我們的毛利率受益於目前我們內部設施的利用。

  • We are running full out. Secondly, and Bill just replied this to a different question, we are compensating our input cost increases with price increases to our customers. And I absolutely do not believe that pricing will go backwards going forward. I think the environment is simply such that we move now to a higher level of pricing. And this is to stay. So that doesn't mean that there are not ASP erosion again going forward but from that higher level. So don't worry about that impact on the gross margin. I think the pricing is a step function, which has been or is being achieved, and then we operate from the new level through the next years.

    我們快用完了。其次,比爾剛剛回答了一個不同的問題,我們正在通過對客戶的價格上漲來補償我們的投入成本增加。而且我絕對不相信定價會倒退。我認為環境就是這樣,我們現在轉向更高的定價水平。這是留下來的。因此,這並不意味著 ASP 不會再次受到侵蝕,而是從更高的水平開始。所以不要擔心這對毛利率的影響。我認為定價是一個階梯函數,已經或正在實現,然後我們從新的水平運行到未來幾年。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • But the bottom of your range, the 55% to 58%, is that the right way to think about trough gross margins, Kurt?

    但你範圍的底部,即 55% 到 58%,這是考慮毛利率低谷的正確方法嗎,庫爾特?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, we've given the model and we have the absolute intention to stick to our model, yes.

    好吧,我們已經給出了模型,並且我們絕對打算堅持我們的模型,是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • I want to ask 1 short-term one and then a follow-up will be a longer-term one. Kurt, in the shorter term, I just wondered, you talked about derisking due to a lot of the macro events. We've seen different companies, say, basically it's not having any impact. Others take a big haircut with little precision. Just wondered where you fall in that spectrum, kind of any more details on what you're seeing on China? And maybe is it a bigger or smaller cut than what you experienced in the first quarter?

    我想問 1 個短期的,然後跟進將是一個長期的。庫爾特,在短期內,我只是想知道,你談到了由於很多宏觀事件而去冒險。我們見過不同的公司,比如說,基本上它沒有任何影響。其他人則不太精確地理髮。只是想知道你屬於那個範圍,關於你在中國看到的更多細節嗎?也許它比你在第一季度經歷的削減更大或更小?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, so in the first quarter, I think we actually quantified it. I think I remember we said about [$50] million, which is really what it was, which was this 1 to 2 week shutdown of our own Tianjin facility in the neighborhood of Beijing.

    嗯,所以在第一季度,我認為我們實際上量化了它。我想我記得我們說過大約 [50] 百萬美元,實際上就是這樣,我們在北京附近的天津工廠關閉了 1 到 2 週。

  • For the second half, what I just said is a couple of tens of millions, which we see as impact, which is baked into the guidance, which we just gave you. Now what I think, how I would qualify this, Ross, is this is entirely a supply discussion. And I say that because I know that some of our peers talked about demand issues.

    對於下半年,我剛才說的是幾千萬,我們認為這是影響,它被納入我們剛剛給你的指導中。現在我想,羅斯,這完全是一個供應討論。我這麼說是因為我知道我們的一些同行談到了需求問題。

  • I want to highlight that, in our case, we clearly talk about derisking from a supply perspective. And that has to do with logistics issues in the greater Shanghai area, and it also has to do with all sorts of suppliers from the Shanghai area into our own operations, think about epoxy suppliers, substrate suppliers, et cetera. And that's the impact which is baked into our guidance.

    我想強調的是,在我們的案例中,我們清楚地從供應的角度討論了去風險化。這與大上海地區的物流問題有關,也與上海地區的各種供應商進入我們自己的業務有關,想想環氧樹脂供應商、基板供應商等等。這就是我們的指導所產生的影響。

  • From a demand perspective, Ross, it's a little different. We -- in the meantime, I have numbers that solidly more than half of our customers in the Shanghai area are fully operational again. So they are running 100% of their operations again. And another 1/3 is, say, partially operational and rapidly coming back now.

    從需求的角度來看,羅斯,這有點不同。我們——與此同時,我的數據顯示,我們上海地區超過一半的客戶已經全面恢復運營。因此,他們再次運行 100% 的運營。比如說,另外 1/3 部分正在運行,現在正在迅速恢復。

  • And during their shutdown periods, they pulled all the products because they all knew they would come back very quickly. We have been under shipping them anyway for 1.5 years now. So that's why that doesn't have any demand impact on us. So all of this derisking, Ross, is a supply consideration and a couple of tens of millions.

    在停產期間,他們撤下了所有產品,因為他們都知道他們很快就會回來。無論如何,我們已經運送它們 1.5 年了。所以這就是為什麼這對我們沒有任何需求影響。因此,羅斯,所有這些降低風險都是供應考慮和數千萬美元。

  • So I leave it to you how you want to integrate this from an exact number perspective, but it is about our supply situation out of the Shanghai area.

    所以我把它留給你,你想如何從一個確切的數字角度來整合它,但它是關於我們在上海地區以外的供應情況。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • That's very helpful. And I guess a longer-term question. This kind of goes back to what if the world isn't as good at some point in the future. Earlier in your narrative, Kurt, you talked about the closer relationship with your customers, more intimate relationship, value-add, et cetera, et cetera. I was wondering, does that change your inventory strategy? And the last couple of downturns, you guys were very aggressive to cut your utilization.

    這很有幫助。我猜是一個長期的問題。這種情況可以追溯到如果世界在未來的某個時候沒有那麼好。在你的敘述中,Kurt 早些時候,你談到了與客戶的更密切的關係、更親密的關係、增值等等。我想知道,這會改變您的庫存策略嗎?在過去的幾次經濟低迷時期,你們非常積極地削減了利用率。

  • I know you don't have standard products that are very application specific, et cetera. But to the extent your customers are giving you more visibility, you have that more intimate relationship, is your willingness to go above the 95 days in a downturn and not cut utilization? Is your willingness for the channel to hold more inventory? Is that at all different from prior cycles? Or do you think that you will run it with just as abrupt if changes with your factory utilization as you have in the past?

    我知道您沒有非常特定於應用程序的標準產品,等等。但是,如果您的客戶給了您更多的知名度,您的關係就更親密了,您是否願意在經濟低迷時期超過 95 天而不降低利用率?您是否願意渠道持有更多庫存?這與之前的周期有什麼不同嗎?或者你認為如果你的工廠利用率發生變化,你會像過去一樣突然運行它嗎?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. We've been looking into this very carefully because indeed, we have certainly lots of discussions with our customers about longer-term supply assurance programs, et cetera. The solution to this is not to increase our internal inventory. So I have a clear-cut answer, Ross, no, the 95 days stand.

    是的。我們一直在非常仔細地研究這個問題,因為事實上,我們確實與我們的客戶就長期供應保證計劃等進行了很多討論。解決這個問題的辦法不是增加我們的內部庫存。所以我有一個明確的答案,羅斯,不,95 天的立場。

  • I'm actually glad when we get there again because you see we are still below that. But no, we don't have an intention to change that because we kind of remodeled how we went into this crisis and what we find out is that even if we had more inventory, it would have -- it wouldn't really have made a significant difference to the whole situation at all.

    當我們再次到達那裡時,我真的很高興,因為你看到我們仍然低於那個水平。但是不,我們無意改變這一點,因為我們在某種程度上改變了我們陷入這場危機的方式,我們發現即使我們有更多的庫存,它也會——它不會真的做到對整個情況有很大的不同。

  • However, we are, of course, working with customers on all sorts of different models, their inventory at our customers in the chain, maybe distribution partners in cases is part of an overall package to have better supply assurance going forward.

    但是,當然,我們正在與各種不同型號的客戶合作,他們在我們鏈中客戶的庫存,也許分銷合作夥伴在某些情況下是整體包裝的一部分,以提供更好的供應保證。

  • But 1 big element that you said it yourself is actually the transparency and knowledge about the ultimate end customer demand. I think in the past, we -- and I would dare to say the whole industry, we have too much relied on demand signals of our direct customers, not fully understanding and not having full transparency to the end customers.

    但是,您自己說的一大要素實際上是關於最終客戶需求的透明度和知識。我認為在過去,我們——我敢說整個行業,我們過於依賴直接客戶的需求信號,沒有完全了解終端客戶,也沒有完全透明。

  • And that is something which over -- in this relationship concept, which I mentioned, which has significantly changed over the last 1.5 to 2 years. So that gives me some confidence that we are in a better position to handle this going forward. Again, internal inventory is not going to be the one which is going to be changed.

    在我提到的這種關係概念中,這已經結束了,在過去的 1.5 到 2 年中發生了顯著變化。所以這讓我有信心,我們在未來能夠更好地處理這個問題。同樣,內部庫存不會是要改變的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • So my first one, you talked about revenues kind of like ramping incrementally sequentially into the second half as supply improves. Are there any end markets where you think supply is getting better or worse? Are you prioritizing any particular end market in the second half? Like how should we be thinking about that trend like spread across your end markets, just given the supply trends and demand trend you see?

    所以我的第一個,你談到收入有點像隨著供應的改善而逐漸增加到下半年。是否有任何終端市場您認為供應變得更好或更糟?您是否在下半年優先考慮任何特定的終端市場?就像我們應該如何考慮這種趨勢,比如在你的終端市場上的分佈,只是考慮到你看到的供應趨勢和需求趨勢?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Stacy, I think we are across the board continuously short of supply. So that applies to all of our 4 revenue segments. If I have to qualify it and I would say the worst case we have in industrial and automotive, so those 2 continue to have probably the biggest gaps between supply and continued growth in demand.

    斯泰西,我認為我們全面持續供不應求。這適用於我們所有的 4 個收入部門。如果我必須對其進行限定,並且我會說我們在工業和汽車領域遇到的最壞情況,那麼這兩個可能繼續在供應和需求持續增長之間存在最大差距。

  • And I also see that in those 2, this is a longer-term situation ahead of us. When we speak about the gradual increase of revenue through the year, then at least for this year, I would indeed say that is largely a function of supply becoming available, Stacy. So it isn't that much a question of what is the demand pattern in those 4 different markets. It is much more where are we coming closer through the year to the demand signal from a supply perspective.

    而且我還看到,在這兩個方面,這是擺在我們面前的長期情況。當我們談到全年收入的逐漸增加時,至少在今年,我確實會說這在很大程度上是供應變得可用的函數,Stacy。因此,這 4 個不同市場的需求模式並不是什麼大問題。從供應的角度來看,我們今年更接近需求信號的地方要多得多。

  • And as we discussed earlier, this is something -- it comes from different factories. It's internal supply ramping up. It is external, it's foundry supply going up, et cetera. So it's a pretty -- and it's also not the same each quarter. So I cannot qualify the revenue, the gradual revenue growth through the year by a segment from a demand perspective because all of our supply is still under the demand signal anyway.

    正如我們之前所討論的,這是一些東西——它來自不同的工廠。它的內部供應正在增加。它是外部的,它的代工供應增加等等。所以它很漂亮——而且每個季度也不一樣。因此,我無法確定收入,從需求的角度來看,全年收入的逐步增長,因為我們所有的供應仍然處於需求信號之下。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • So my follow-up, I want to revisit the China COVID situation, and I heard what you said in a prior question. But at the same time, like you're calling for maybe 1% or less overall impact to next quarter from China. You're bigger -- your competitor obviously was calling for 10%. I know you talked about maybe differences in what you're seeing in terms of demand versus supply.

    所以我的後續行動,我想重新審視中國 COVID 的情況,我聽到了你在之前的問題中所說的話。但與此同時,就像您呼籲中國對下一季度的總體影響可能為 1% 或更少一樣。你更大——你的競爭對手顯然要求 10%。我知道您談到了您所看到的需求與供應方面的差異。

  • But I think both of you have more than 50% of your revenues going into China. How can that be that one of them is seeing demand issues, but think their demand issues were also logistics related. Why do you think you're not seeing anything along those lines when they are? Is it just the nature, you have a channel so there's a bigger buffer in China? Or what are some of the differences you think are going on that actually could be driving you to not see an impact along the lines of like some of the others in the industry, just given the amount of your revenue that's actually going into that region?

    但我認為你們倆都有超過 50% 的收入進入中國。他們中的一個人怎麼會看到需求問題,但認為他們的需求問題也與物流有關。為什麼你認為你沒有看到任何符合這些路線的東西?只是天性,你們有渠道,所以在中國有更大的緩衝嗎?或者,考慮到您實際進入該地區的收入金額,您認為實際發生的哪些差異可能會導致您看不到與行業中其他一些人一樣的影響?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Stacy, obviously, I really cannot speculate and don't want to speculate about the specific strategies and situations of one or more of our peers. I just cannot. However, I can assure you that we put a lot of rigor and a lot of attention into assessing this particular question because it's been obviously very important for us to understand how to sit safely and confidently guide for this quarter in this turmoiled environment.

    斯泰西,顯然,我真的無法推測,也不想推測我們一個或多個同行的具體策略和情況。我就是不能。但是,我可以向您保證,我們在評估這個特定問題時投入了大量的精力和注意力,因為在這個動蕩的環境中,了解如何安全、自信地指導本季度對我們來說顯然非常重要。

  • Given that this is very near term, it is -- it really has to do with the order patterns we have on the books and with this particular customer situations we talk to. So this isn't much about strategic consideration, Stacy. It's really about what are we still getting out the next 8 weeks of this quarter. And the bottom line of the analysis is, it is not about demand. It is all about the supply disturbances from this situation.

    鑑於這是非常短期的,它確實與我們在書籍上的訂單模式以及我們與之交談的這種特定客戶情況有關。所以這與戰略考慮無關,斯泰西。這真的是關於本季度接下來的 8 週我們還能得到什麼。分析的底線是,這與需求無關。這一切都與這種情況下的供應干擾有關。

  • And there, I feel we took a very balanced -- risk-balanced approach to figure that in. But again, I can't hold it against competitors because I really don't know what their exemptions and other policies are.

    在那裡,我覺得我們採取了一種非常平衡 - 風險平衡的方法來計算這一點。但同樣,我不能反對競爭對手,因為我真的不知道他們的豁免和其他政策是什麼。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • Would you have the supply to ship the extra if there was no impact?

    如果沒有影響,您是否有貨源來運送額外的貨物?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Well, the impact is on the supply, Stacy. That's the problem. So we -- If we did not have the COVID-related shutdowns in the Shanghai area, we had a higher guidance. Absolutely, that's the answer. So that's what I tried to say. The whole reason of derisking is supply out of China. And that's a couple of tens of millions. And if that China 0 COVID policy wouldn't hitting -- wouldn't be hitting now Shanghai and possibly Beijing later in the quarter, we would have a higher guidance, yes.

    是的。好吧,影響是對供應的,斯泰西。那就是問題所在。所以我們——如果我們沒有在上海地區發生與 COVID 相關的停工,我們會有更高的指導。沒錯,這就是答案。這就是我想說的。降低風險的全部原因是中國的供應。那是幾千萬。如果中國 0 COVID 政策不會影響——現在不會影響上海,也可能不會在本季度晚些時候影響北京,我們會有更高的指導,是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題來自於 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I guess first question, I was hoping you could discuss plans for CapEx. I know you're 100% sticking with the hybrid model. But your CapEx intensity is now up to, I think, 8.9% in the quarter. Curious if that's sustainable through '22? And how should we think about beyond 2022?

    我想第一個問題,我希望你能討論資本支出的計劃。我知道你 100% 堅持使用混合模式。但我認為,本季度您的資本支出強度現在高達 8.9%。好奇這是否能持續到 22 年?我們應該如何考慮 2022 年以後的事情?

  • William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure, C.J. This is Bill. As mentioned during last quarter and our Investor Analyst Day, our long-term model is 6% to 8%. However, we do expect 2022 will be a bit higher around that 10% and then come back within the range in 2023 and beyond. And just to look back again in 2020, we spent about 4.5%, 4.6%; '21, 6.9%. And as you can see, you're right, in Q1, we spent about 8.9%.

    當然,C.J. 這是比爾。正如上個季度和我們的投資者分析師日所提到的,我們的長期模型是 6% 到 8%。但是,我們確實預計 2022 年將在 10% 左右略高一些,然後在 2023 年及以後回到該範圍內。再回顧一下2020年,我們花了大約4.5%、4.6%; '21, 6.9%。正如你所看到的,你是對的,在第一季度,我們花費了大約 8.9%。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Very helpful. I guess as my follow-up question. Mobility was unusually strong in Q1 and in your K or Q rather, you suggested strength in China, secure mobile wallets as well as early adoption of UWB. Curious how we should think about kind of those drivers into the second half of '22 and is it UWB that really is the incremental driver or just overall handset units?

    很有幫助。我想這是我的後續問題。移動性在第一季度異常強勁,在您的 K 或 Q 中,您建議在中國表現強勁、安全的移動錢包以及早期採用 UWB。好奇我們應該如何在 22 年下半年考慮這些驅動因素,UWB 真的是增量驅動因素還是只是整體手機單元?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • It isn't really units. I think the mobile market, as we can all read is -- well, it's a bit patchy maybe globally. But we are still on this content growth strategy. I mean, in the end, it is indeed about mobile wallet and the early stages of ultra-wideband penetration and both are very much on track.

    它不是真正的單位。我認為我們都可以讀到的移動市場是——嗯,它可能在全球範圍內有點不完整。但我們仍然採用這種內容增長策略。我的意思是,最終,它確實是關於移動錢包和超寬帶滲透的早期階段,兩者都非常順利。

  • The fluctuations between quarters is really supply related. I mean I talked painfully about very, very tough supply constraints in mobile in quarter 3 and quarter 4 of last year.

    季度之間的波動實際上與供應有關。我的意思是,我在去年第 3 季度和第 4 季度痛苦地談到了移動領域非常非常嚴峻的供應限制。

  • And I was anticipating it would get better. It got better now in Q1, but it's not perfectly permanent. So I think this is a -- it was a bit of a catch-up from a supply perspective in Q1, not perfect going forward since you saw that we guided single-digit down actually sequentially into the second quarter, where, again, we also have to -- and this is a constant process, we have to balance our available supply, very disfungible between segments to the extent possible.

    我期待它會變得更好。現在在第一季度變得更好了,但它並不是完全永久的。所以我認為這是一個 - 從第一季度的供應角度來看,這是一個追趕,但並不完美,因為你看到我們實際上在第二季度連續下降了個位數,再次,我們還必須——這是一個持續的過程,我們必須平衡我們的可用供應,盡可能在各個細分市場之間實現不可替代。

  • So we -- every quarter, again, in this current environment, we have to see where we have the possibility to that we are rebalancing between the segments where technology or capacity buckets are fungible with each other. And this is where it hits a bit the mobile one in the second quarter. So don't read too much into it. This is all -- it all has to do with supply between Q1 and Q2.

    因此,在當前的環境下,我們每個季度都必須再次看到我們在哪些方面有可能在技術或容量桶可以相互替代的細分市場之間進行重新平衡。這就是它在第二季度觸及移動端的地方。所以不要讀太多。這就是全部 - 這一切都與第一季度和第二季度之間的供應有關。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from William Stein with Truist Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

  • William Stein - MD

    William Stein - MD

  • Congrats on the strong results and outlook. I'd like to ask if you could remind us of your capacity expansion plans overall. What are you telling your customers in particular as to how you're going to recover from the current situation and meet their demand?

    祝賀強勁的結果和前景。我想問一下您是否可以提醒我們您的整體產能擴張計劃。您特別告訴您的客戶您將如何從當前情況中恢復並滿足他們的需求?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • That's a big question, Bill. So what we clearly communicate and break also to customers, of course, a bit more out in more detail, as we can do it here, is; a, what we do with the 10% CapEx, which Bill was speaking about. And I think still 6% to 8% probably in the coming years against the significantly elevated revenue. So this is from an absolute amount of significant CapEx increase to fulfill that demand.

    這是個大問題,比爾。因此,我們清楚地向客戶傳達和打破的內容,當然,更詳細一點,就像我們可以在這裡做的那樣,是; a,我們如何處理比爾所說的 10% 資本支出。而且我認為在收入顯著增加的情況下,未來幾年可能仍有 6% 到 8%。因此,這是為了滿足這一需求而大幅增加資本支出。

  • Secondly, and I think that was one of the first questions in this call. We have these long-term purchase agreements with foundry partners, which are assuring us capacity corridors going forward.

    其次,我認為這是本次電話會議中的首要問題之一。我們與代工合作夥伴簽訂了這些長期採購協議,這確保了我們未來的產能走廊。

  • Now the way how it plays out is that indeed, we see this year, but especially the next year, we see more strong increments coming online from our internal capacity expansions in the front end. I mean we have this all the time in the back end because you know that the cycle time to -- from putting tools and getting capacity out is much faster in the back end. So this is an ongoing process. But if you think about the investments into the front end, which is specifically in our mixed signal and analog processes in-house, that we see the positive impact from those coming late this year and then especially next year.

    現在它的表現方式是,我們確實在今年看到,但尤其是在明年,我們看到更多強勁的增量來自我們在前端的內部產能擴張。我的意思是我們在後端一直都有這個,因為你知道從放置工具到獲取容量的周期時間在後端要快得多。所以這是一個持續的過程。但是,如果您考慮對前端的投資,特別是在我們內部的混合信號和模擬處理方面,我們會看到今年晚些時候,尤其是明年即將推出的那些積極影響。

  • And we work continuously with our foundry partners to give us more access to capacity. In the end Will, that is why Bill highlighted in his prepared remarks, that we will grow second half revenue of this year over first half revenue, with gradual increase quarter-on-quarter. I mean you know that normally, we don't do this full year kind of directional guidances. But since we have that supply in line of sight, unbroken demand signals, this is where -- what it's going to yield.

    我們與代工合作夥伴不斷合作,為我們提供更多產能。最後威爾,這就是為什麼比爾在他準備好的講話中強調,我們今年下半年的收入將超過上半年的收入,並按季度逐步增加。我的意思是你知道,通常情況下,我們不會做這種全年的定向指導。但是,由於我們在視線範圍內看到了供應,並且需求信號不間斷,這就是它將產生的結果。

  • Midterm, I think, Bill, the industry will continue to have quite significant capacity constraints, especially in the field of trailing edge. So if you think about technologies, say, above 16 nanometers, so especially in the area of 28, 40 and 90, I do believe that the industry in the end hasn't invested that much CapEx. Most of the CapEx went really into the leading edge. While the demand for those nodes, which is especially from automotive and industrial continues to be super robust through the coming period.

    中期,我認為,比爾,該行業將繼續存在相當大的產能限制,尤其是在後緣領域。因此,如果您考慮技術,例如 16 納米以上,特別是在 28、40 和 90 納米領域,我確實相信該行業最終並沒有投入那麼多資本支出。大部分資本支出確實處於領先地位。雖然對這些節點的需求,尤其是來自汽車和工業的需求在未來一段時間內仍然非常強勁。

  • William Stein - MD

    William Stein - MD

  • That's very helpful. Appreciate it. One more if I can. How much of the year-over-year growth achieved in Q1 and guided for Q2 approximately comes from units versus pricing versus mix?

    這很有幫助。欣賞它。可以的話再來一張。第一季度實現的同比增長和第二季度的指導大約有多少來自單位、定價和組合?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, I think Bill kind of hinted to this earlier. We are not passing price and units on a quarterly level, Will. We -- I think we gave you the information for last year where we said that pricing was a very low single-digit element to our growth in revenue. And you will get a similar information for the full calendar year 2022 at the beginning of next year.

    好吧,我認為比爾早些時候暗示過這一點。我們不會按季度傳遞價格和單位,威爾。我們 - 我想我們給了你去年的信息,我們說定價是我們收入增長的一個非常低的個位數元素。您將在明年年初獲得 2022 年全年的類似信息。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Blayne Curtis。

  • Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • Just curious, when you talked about going forward, you pass through additional costs, gross margin kind of stable here. So I guess it is in balance. Just curious as you look to the rest of the year, do you foresee any increased costs going forward the way for back end.

    只是好奇,當你談到前進時,你會通過額外的成本,毛利率在這裡有點穩定。所以我想這是平衡的。只是好奇,當您展望今年餘下的時間時,您是否預見到後端成本會增加。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, Bill can go into more detail, and I think he also in his prepared remarks, he hinted to how we see this. So Blayne, yes, unfortunately, given this inflationary environment, we can, of course, not exclude continued input cost increases. But our principle stance that if that happens, we will raise prices to protect our gross margins accordingly. Now Bill, I'm not sure you want to add a little bit to this.

    好吧,比爾可以說得更詳細一些,我想他也在他準備好的發言中暗示了我們如何看待這一點。所以 Blayne,是的,不幸的是,鑑於這種通貨膨脹環境,我們當然不能排除持續的投入成本增加。但我們的原則立場是,如果發生這種情況,我們將相應提高價格以保護我們的毛利率。現在比爾,我不確定您是否想對此添加一點內容。

  • William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • No. Nothing more.

    不,僅此而已。

  • Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • Great. And then I just want to ask, you said channel inventory is about a month below where they should be. When you look at sequential growth in the year, it does -- brought some seasonality in your core end markets. I was wondering if you thought that you would make any improvement in that gap in the channel inventory.

    偉大的。然後我只想問,你說渠道庫存比他們應該的低一個月左右。當您查看一年中的連續增長時,確實會為您的核心終端市場帶來一些季節性。我想知道你是否認為你會在渠道庫存的差距上做出任何改進。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Blayne, I wish we could. Again, I -- this is really the target of 2.5 months, which we had held over years in the past, is still our target. I am personally deeply convinced that it is a disadvantage that we currently do not have this 2.5 months. So I wish we could get there. But we are just held back by supply.

    是的。布萊恩,我希望我們可以。再說一次,我 - 這實際上是我們過去多年持有的 2.5 個月的目標,現在仍然是我們的目標。我個人深信,我們目前沒有這 2.5 個月是一個劣勢。所以我希望我們能到達那裡。但我們只是受到供應的阻礙。

  • I mean the more we ship into the channel, it's being pulled through immediately. So it immediately translates into POS. So again, this is not a guidance, but I see little chance that we get this anyway near back to our target in the course of this year.

    我的意思是,我們向頻道發送的越多,它就會立即通過。所以它立即轉化為 POS。再說一次,這不是一個指導,但我認為我們在今年的過程中幾乎沒有機會讓它接近我們的目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Chris Caso with Raymond James.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Chris Caso 和 Raymond James。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • The question on cash return. And last quarter, you did return more than 100% of free cash flow. Could you give us an update of kind of what your thinking is here? Obviously, the cash flow is very strong in this environment? And what are the plans for that?

    關於現金返還的問題。上個季度,你確實返還了超過 100% 的自由現金流。你能告訴我們你的想法是什麼嗎?顯然,在這種環境下現金流非常強勁?對此有何計劃?

  • William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. I'll take that. Again, no change in our policy, and we continue to execute to our capital allocation strategy. As you mentioned, we returned to 121%. If I just look at the trailing 12 months, I think we returned 185%. We'll continue to do so. We raised our dividend in Q1, as you all saw, and we also got approval for buybacks. Again, we've been very consistent here and we'll continue to execute to that strategy.

    當然。我會接受的。同樣,我們的政策沒有變化,我們繼續執行我們的資本配置策略。正如你提到的,我們回到了 121%。如果我只看過去的 12 個月,我認為我們的回報率為 185%。我們將繼續這樣做。正如你們所見,我們在第一季度提高了股息,我們也獲得了回購的批准。同樣,我們在這裡一直非常一致,我們將繼續執行該策略。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • And as a follow-on, just another question on OpEx. And you talked about the 5% increase for this quarter on the merit raise. Does that tend to flatten out as you go through the year end?

    作為後續,只是關於 OpEx 的另一個問題。你談到了本季度加薪5%的增長。到年底時,這種情況會趨於平緩嗎?

  • And just generally, are you comfortable with the level of spending that you're at right now. I know some others have spoken about just kind of difficulty in hiring and getting access to talent.

    總的來說,你對你現在的消費水平感到滿意嗎?我知道其他一些人談到了招聘和獲得人才方面的困難。

  • William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    William J. Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, related to OpEx, we continue to do very well here. And as you can see, we're operating below the 23% long-term model. Q1 finished at 21.9% of sales, better than what we guided at 22.4%. We also guided 22% of sales, again, which incorporates that higher annual merit increases in project spend as we continue to manage and execute our portfolio to our strategy very well.

    是的,與運營支出相關,我們在這裡繼續做得很好。正如你所看到的,我們的運營低於 23% 的長期模式。第一季度完成銷售額的 21.9%,好於我們指導的 22.4%。我們還引導了 22% 的銷售額,其中包括項目支出的年度價值增加,因為我們繼續很好地管理和執行我們的投資組合以符合我們的戰略。

  • I'm not going to guide the second half, but with all the different signals we just provided on revenue and gross margin, and we should be probably trending below our long-term model of 23%. So we're not going to get to 23% probably in the second half.

    我不打算指導下半年,但考慮到我們剛剛提供的有關收入和毛利率的所有不同信號,我們的趨勢可能會低於我們 23% 的長期模型。因此,我們可能不會在下半年達到 23%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Matt Ramsay 和 Cowen。

  • Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

    Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

  • Kurt, there's obviously been a lot of conversation on this call about visibility and whatnot. But the one data point that really stood out to me was I think you mentioned 30% xEV penetration this year in the auto market in terms of units of production. And that was quite a bit higher than what we were modeling despite the bullish trends in EVs. So I wonder if you could give us a little context there. Is that supply constraints that are hitting ICE vehicles maybe more disproportionately than EVs? Is this new regulatory push? Is it infrastructure that's being build out more quickly for charging? I'm just trying to get an idea of why sort of a step-up or some bullishness on the xEV penetration.

    庫爾特,顯然有很多關於可見性和諸如此類的電話會議。但對我來說真正突出的一個數據點是,我認為你提到了今年汽車市場中 30% 的 xEV 滲透率,就產量而言。儘管電動汽車有看漲趨勢,但這比我們建模的要高得多。所以我想知道你是否可以給我們一些背景信息。對內燃機汽車的供應限制可能比電動汽車更嚴重嗎?這是新的監管推動嗎?是為了充電而建設得更快的基礎設施嗎?我只是想了解為什麼 xEV 滲透率會有所提升或看好。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Thanks, Matt. And thanks for maybe then giving me the opportunity to correct what at least you understood, I'm not sure exactly what I said. The 30% I quoted, Matt, is the sum -- the integral sum of xEVs and premium ICE vehicles this year. And to break it out, it's about 23% xEVs and 7% premium vehicles. But I put them together into this 30% number because from a semi content perspective, they are in a similar ballpark, which is this at least 2 to 3, sometimes 3x of the average car.

    是的。謝謝,馬特。謝謝你給我機會糾正至少你理解的東西,我不確定我說的是什麼。我引用的 30%,馬特,是總和——今年 xEV 和高級 ICE 車輛的總和。打破它,大約是 23% 的 xEV 和 7% 的高檔汽車。但是我把它們放在這個 30% 的數字中,因為從半內容的角度來看,它們處於相似的範圍內,這至少是普通汽車的 2 到 3 倍,有時是普通汽車的 3 倍。

  • So sorry if that was not clear. So the 30% is the sum of premium ICE and xEVs together. Yes, the principal holds, which you said because the xEVs, I think, they were more like 19% last year and moving to 23% this year. So this is a significant increase. And I think next year, it's going to be another significant step up.

    很抱歉,如果不清楚。因此,30% 是優質 ICE 和 xEV 的總和。是的,本金持有,你說這是因為 xEV,我認為,它們去年的比例更像是 19%,而今年則上升到 23%。所以這是一個顯著的增長。我認為明年,這將是另一個重要的進步。

  • But again, it is important to understand that concept of lumping into this also the premium ICE vehicles because that number -- that 30% I quoted there is actually almost doubled from what it was between 2017 and '18, where it was more in the ballpark of 15%. And so there is an accelerated trend both to premium cars and to XEVs, and that's an enormously strong driver to semi content.

    但同樣,重要的是要理解將高端 ICE 車輛歸為一類的概念,因為這個數字——我引用的 30% 實際上幾乎是 2017 年至 18 年之間的兩倍,在15%的球場。因此,高檔汽車和 XEV 都出現了加速趨勢,這對半內容汽車來說是一個非常強大的驅動力。

  • The xEV trend, by the way, is clearly pulled by China and Europe. It is a little lower still. I think it's also going to come, but it's a little lower still in the U.S. And as you rightfully said, in Europe, that has a lot to do with legislation and tax incentives and stuff. And in China, I think it has to do with in a way, an ideal situation for the industry because they don't have a lot of legacy from combustion engine cars. I mean they -- many, many start-up companies there jump right away into xEVs.

    順便說一句,xEV 趨勢顯然受到中國和歐洲的拉動。還是低了一點。我認為它也會到來,但在美國仍然會低一些。正如你所說的,在歐洲,這與立法和稅收優惠等有很大關係。在中國,我認為這在某種程度上與該行業的理想情況有關,因為他們沒有很多內燃機汽車的遺產。我的意思是他們——那裡的許多初創公司立即跳入了xEV。

  • Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

    Matthew D. Ramsay - MD & Senior Technology Analyst

  • Thank you for that, Kurt, for clearing up the assumptions. As my follow-up, there's -- a lot of the call here has been focused on supply demand and visibility in the auto business. Maybe you could compare and contrast where you are closeness to customers' visibility in autos versus what you're seeing in industrial and comps?

    謝謝你,庫爾特,澄清了這些假設。作為我的後續行動,這裡的很多電話都集中在汽車業務的供應需求和可見性上。也許您可以比較和對比您在汽車領域與客戶在汽車領域的知名度的接近程度與您在工業和汽車領域所看到的情況?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Auto is very hard to serve because of the supply constraints, but the transparency is actually, in the meantime, very good. I mean it's a complicated supply chain. But I think we have now after exercising more than 1.5 years, very close and standing relationships to the Tier 1s and the OEMs when it comes to these supply challenges.

    是的。由於供應限制,汽車很難服務,但與此同時,透明度實際上非常好。我的意思是這是一個複雜的供應鏈。但我認為,在經歷了超過 1.5 年之後,在這些供應挑戰方面,我們現在與一級供應商和 OEM 建立了非常密切和長期的關係。

  • So I think the transparency is good. And that's why I also probably (inaudible) here a solid confidence that we know that we don't over ship because we have very clear visibility. In industrial and IoT, it is obviously more complicated because a solid part of the business there is going through the channel such that the channel inventory, which we discussed earlier, the 1.5 months, which is stubbornly low, is probably the best indicator we have there.

    所以我認為透明度很好。這就是為什麼我在這裡也可能(聽不清)有堅定的信心,我們知道我們不會過度出貨,因為我們有非常清晰的能見度。在工業和物聯網中,這顯然更複雜,因為那裡的業務有很大一部分是通過渠道進行的,因此我們之前討論過的渠道庫存(1.5 個月一直處於低位)可能是我們擁有的最佳指標那裡。

  • That doesn't exclude the fact that also in Industrial and IoT, we are serving well-known, very big customers. I mean it doesn't harm to mention names like maybe Honeywell or Schneider or Siemens. I mean that kind of customers. We, of course, also serve and that's the more direct where we have a similar visibility level like in automotive. And I'm afraid I have to say I fear at the moment at least for us, for NXP, the shortages in industrial are even worse than in automotive.

    這並不排除在工業和物聯網領域,我們也在為知名的大客戶提供服務。我的意思是,提及霍尼韋爾、施耐德或西門子之類的名字並沒有什麼壞處。我的意思是這樣的客戶。當然,我們也提供服務,這在我們擁有與汽車類似的可見度水平的地方更為直接。恐怕我不得不說,至少對我們來說,對於恩智浦來說,我現在擔心工業領域的短缺甚至比汽車領域的短缺還要嚴重。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our last question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • Kurt, in response to a question, you talked about your wafer processing capacity, potentially taking kind of a leg up in 2023. Can you help us quantify how much your capacity could increase there? And related to that, consistent with what you said at your Analyst Day, you mentioned that capital intensity in the business should revert lower in 2023.

    庫爾特,在回答一個問題時,您談到了您的晶圓加工能力,可能會在 2023 年有所提升。您能幫助我們量化您的產能在那裡可以增加多少嗎?與此相關,與您在分析師日所說的一致,您提到該業務的資本密集度應在 2023 年恢復到較低水平。

  • Throughout the call, you sounded really, really confident about the sustainability of demand here and how in some of the more mature nodes, you're kind of in the structural undersupply. Why not keep investing at a high level in '23 and beyond?

    在整個電話會議中,您聽起來對這裡需求的可持續性以及在一些更成熟的節點中如何存在結構性供應不足充滿信心。為什麼不在 23 年及以後繼續高水平投資?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. That is actually because the level we need to achieve, Toshiya, with our own wafer facilities, will then be satisfied to the possibilities we have? So that doesn't necessarily mean it closes all the gaps to demand but it's as much as we can do with the 4 walls and the facilities we have. That does not mean, of course, that we would not continue to push very hard to get a higher supply from our foundry partners.

    是的。那實際上是因為我們需要達到的水平,Toshiya 擁有我們自己的晶圓設施,然後會對我們擁有的可能性感到滿意嗎?所以這並不一定意味著它消除了所有的需求差距,但我們可以用 4 面牆和我們擁有的設施做盡可能多的事情。當然,這並不意味著我們不會繼續非常努力地從我們的代工合作夥伴那裡獲得更多的供應。

  • And because in the end, within our hybrid manufacturing strategy, the share of external foundry supply to NXP is only going to grow. I think we are currently at a 55% to 45% level so 55% external, 45% internal. I would dare to forecast that this -- it will not take that long. It's going to be more like 60%, 40%, et cetera.

    因為最終,在我們的混合製造戰略中,NXP 的外部代工供應份額只會增長。我認為我們目前處於 55% 到 45% 的水平,因此 55% 是外部的,45% 是內部的。我敢於預測——這不會花那麼長時間。這將更像是 60%、40% 等等。

  • So that's why if you think about a revenue generation and customer satisfaction from that perspective, then the internal part on the midterm is actually the smaller part of this. And the bigger part is coming from the foundries. And of course, they keep investing and we keep getting there more.

    所以這就是為什麼如果你從這個角度考慮創收和客戶滿意度,那麼中期的內部部分實際上是其中較小的部分。更大的部分來自代工廠。當然,他們一直在投資,我們也在不斷地達到目標。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • Got it. That's helpful. And then finally, as my follow-up. I think in your prepared remarks, you talked about supply issues in Q1 driving the very slight miss in comps. Can you sort of elaborate on that? And has that been resolved at this point?

    知道了。這很有幫助。最後,作為我的後續行動。我認為在您準備好的評論中,您談到了第一季度的供應問題導致了比賽中的輕微失誤。你能詳細說明一下嗎?現在解決了嗎?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, that's just -- it's just the normal stuff. I mean we have our LDMOS production in the RF comps business, which is running in those facilities, which are also serving automotive and industrial customers, and they are just full. So we were too ambitious, to be honest. I mean it's just a couple of million in the end, but we were too ambitious in what we could get out to these comps customers. So nothing dramatic in the end because you saw it also -- it still continued to grow very nicely from a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter perspective. But we just had a too ambitious plan from an output perspective, but nothing special in a way.

    是的,這只是 - 這只是正常的東西。我的意思是我們的 LDMOS 生產在 RF comps 業務中,在這些設施中運行,這些設施也為汽車和工業客戶提供服務,而且它們剛剛滿員。所以說實話,我們太雄心勃勃了。我的意思是最終只有幾百萬,但我們太雄心勃勃地想向這些comps客戶提供什麼。所以最終沒有什麼戲劇性的,因為你也看到了——從同比和環比的角度來看,它仍然繼續很好地增長。但是從輸出的角度來看,我們只是有一個過於雄心勃勃的計劃,但在某種程度上並沒有什麼特別之處。

  • Now with that, I guess we get to the end of the call. So many thanks for attending this morning. In summary, I would say that we very rigorously reviewed the quarter 2 guide given this uncertain situation out of China.

    現在有了這個,我想我們可以結束通話了。非常感謝您今天早上的出席。總之,鑑於中國以外的這種不確定情況,我想說我們非常嚴格地審查了第二季度指南。

  • I want to highlight again, we see this as a pure supply challenge. But we feel now very confident with the forecast, which we have given you that this is in line what we will achieve. And from a more longer-term perspective, I think the anticipated strong growth for the year is materializing, second half ahead of first half. And we see a continued imbalance between supply and demand through the whole year, especially in our strategic segments of automotive and industrial, which have very secular growth trends.

    我想再次強調,我們認為這是一個純粹的供應挑戰。但我們現在對預測非常有信心,我們已經給你了,這符合我們將要實現的目標。從更長期的角度來看,我認為今年預期的強勁增長正在實現,下半年領先於上半年。而且我們看到全年供需之間持續不平衡,特別是在我們的汽車和工業戰略領域,這些領域具有非常長期的增長趨勢。

  • With that, many thanks, and I look forward to seeing some of you in person later through the week. Thank you.

    有了這個,非常感謝,我期待在本週晚些時候親自見到你們中的一些人。謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。