恩智浦 (NXPI) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the NXP Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded.

早上好，女士們，先生們。感謝您的支持，歡迎參加恩智浦 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議可能會被錄製。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker host today, Jeff Palmer. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把會議交給今天的演講主持人 Jeff Palmer。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Olivia. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to NXP Semiconductor's Second Quarter 2002 (sic) [2022] Earnings Call. With me on the call today is Kurt Sievers, NXP's President and CEO; and Bill Betz, our CFO. The call today is being recorded and will be available for replay from our corporate website.

謝謝你，奧利維亞。大家，早安。歡迎來到恩智浦半導體 2002 年第二季度（原文如此）[2022] 財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是恩智浦總裁兼首席執行官 Kurt Sievers；還有我們的首席財務官 Bill Betz。今天的通話正在錄音中，可從我們的公司網站重播。

Today's call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, the macroeconomic impact on the specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products and our expectations for the financial results for the third quarter of 2022. Please be reminded that NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements. For a full disclosure on forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release.

今天的電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致恩智浦的業績與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於關於 COVID-19 大流行對我們業務的持續影響、對我們經營的特定終端市場的宏觀經濟影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們的預期的陳述對於 2022 年第三季度的財務業績。請注意，恩智浦不承擔公開修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。有關前瞻性陳述的完整披露，請參閱我們的新聞稿。

Additionally, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are driven by -- primarily by discrete events that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance. Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our second quarter 2002 (sic) 2022 earnings press release, which will be furnished to the SEC on Form K and is available on NXP's website in the Investor Relations section at nxp.com.

此外，我們將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標，這些指標主要由管理層認為與恩智浦基本核心運營業績不直接相關的離散事件驅動。根據 G 條例，恩智浦在我們的 2002 年第二季度（原文如此）2022 年收益新聞稿中提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬，該新聞稿將通過表格 K 提供給 SEC，並可在恩智浦網站 nxp.com 的投資者關係部分。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Kurt.

現在我想把電話轉給 Kurt。

Thank you very much, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you all joining our call today.

非常感謝 Jeff，大家早上好。感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。

Let me begin with a review of our quarter 2 performance. Our revenue was $37 million better than the midpoint of our guidance, with Automotive and Industrial & IoT above our guidance, while trends in the Mobile and Communication Infrastructure markets were in line with our expectations. Taken together, NXP delivered quarter 2 revenue of $3.31 billion, an increase of 28% year-over-year.

讓我先回顧一下我們第二季度的表現。我們的收入比我們的指導中點高出 3700 萬美元，其中汽車和工業和物聯網高於我們的指導，而移動和通信基礎設施市場的趨勢符合我們的預期。總的來說，恩智浦第二季度的收入為 33.1 億美元，同比增長 28%。

Our non-GAAP operating margin in quarter 2 was a record 36%, 400 basis points better than the year ago period and about 30 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance. Our results reflect strong execution, with better-than-guided operating leverage and profit fall-through on the incrementally higher revenue on top of improved gross profit.

我們在第二季度的非公認會計準則營業利潤率達到創紀錄的 36%，比去年同期高出 400 個基點，比我們的指導中點高出約 30 個基點。我們的業績反映了強勁的執行力，優於指導的經營槓桿和利潤下降，在毛利潤提高的基礎上增加了收入。

Now let me turn to the specific trends in our focus end markets. In Automotive, revenue was $1.71 billion, up 36% year-over-year, near the high end of guidance. In Industrial & IoT, revenue was $713 million, up 25% year-on-year, better than our guidance. In Mobile, revenue was $388 million, up 12% year-on-year, in line with our guidance. And lastly, Communication Infrastructure & Other revenue was $498 million, up 20% year-on-year, in line with our guidance.

現在讓我談談我們關注的終端市場的具體趨勢。在汽車領域，收入為 17.1 億美元，同比增長 36%，接近指引的高端。在工業和物聯網方面，收入為 7.13 億美元，同比增長 25%，好於我們的預期。在移動領域，收入為 3.88 億美元，同比增長 12%，符合我們的預期。最後，通信基礎設施和其他收入為 4.98 億美元，同比增長 20%，符合我們的預期。

Looking at the trends across our end markets, we are not naive to believe NXP is immune from the clearly weakening macro environment. We are highly alert, and we review frequently and very closely several key indicators relative to the dynamics of customer demand versus supply, inventory per channel per end market and per geography.

縱觀我們終端市場的趨勢，我們並不天真地相信恩智浦不受明顯疲軟的宏觀環境的影響。我們高度警惕，我們經常且非常密切地審查與客戶需求與供應動態、每個終端市場和每個地理區域每個渠道的庫存相關的幾個關鍵指標。

When we look at demand signals, we have a high level of confidence in the intermediate-term outlook. This is especially true in terms of demand trends in the Automotive and Industrial markets, which account for the majority of our total revenue. While there is a well-documented weakness in the low-end Android handset market, it is important to note that our Mobile business is more biased towards the premium-tier vendors. And in aggregate, our Mobile business accounts for only about 12% of our total revenue.

當我們查看需求信號時，我們對中期前景充滿信心。在汽車和工業市場的需求趨勢方面尤其如此，這些市場占我們總收入的大部分。儘管低端 Android 手機市場存在明顯的弱點，但值得注意的是，我們的移動業務更偏向於高端供應商。總的來說，我們的移動業務僅占我們總收入的 12% 左右。

In terms of the PC and broad consumer electronics markets, there are much smaller contributors in the IoT portion of our Industrial & IoT segment.

就個人電腦和廣泛的消費電子市場而言，我們工業和物聯網領域的物聯網部分的貢獻者要小得多。

In terms of customer behaviors, we do not see any substantial weakening within the Auto and Industrial customer base. Relative to long-term committed customer demand, a large percentage of our major customers continue to firmly desire supply assurance commitments, which are facilitated by placing noncancelable, nonreturnable orders with us throughout 2023. And currently, the level of NCNR orders into 2023 is greater than our ability to service.

在客戶行為方面，我們沒有看到汽車和工業客戶群有任何實質性減弱。相對於長期承諾的客戶需求，我們很大一部分主要客戶繼續堅定地渴望供應保證承諾，這得益於在整個 2023 年向我們下不可取消、不可退貨的訂單。目前，到 2023 年的 NCNR 訂單水平更高比我們的服務能力。

In terms of key operating metrics, which inform our short-term decisions, demand continues to outpace our gradually and incrementally improving supply capability. Furthermore, even as we actively derisk our existing backlog for potential double or any stale orders, we judge supply to only address approximately 80% of the underlying demand. Additionally, we continue to redirect shipments to those customers which are at risk of going lines down, thus avoiding excess or stagnant inventory buildup.

就影響我們短期決策的關鍵運營指標而言，需求繼續超過我們逐步提高的供應能力。此外，即使我們為潛在的雙重訂單或任何陳舊訂單積極取消現有的積壓訂單，我們仍判斷供應只能解決大約 80% 的潛在需求。此外，我們繼續將貨物重定向到那些有可能出現停機風險的客戶，從而避免過多或停滯的庫存積累。

When looking at customer inventory, we continue to see a dysfunctional supply chain, which struggles to get the right product mix and complete kits to the correct location in the extended Automotive and Industrial markets.

在查看客戶庫存時，我們繼續看到功能失調的供應鏈，它難以將正確的產品組合和完整的套件送到擴展的汽車和工業市場的正確位置。

Now in terms of our own on-hand inventory, it has increased through quarter 2 on a dollar basis, consistent with orders placed to our suppliers and internal build plans. The primary area of increase is in raw material and work in progress in order to fulfill firm customer commitments in future and especially in quarter 3. On a days basis, DIO was 94, an increase of 5 days sequentially, and closer to our long-term target of 95 days.

現在，就我們自己的現有庫存而言，它在第二季度以美元為基礎有所增加，這與我們向供應商下達的訂單和內部建造計劃一致。增加的主要領域是原材料和在製品，以便在未來特別是在第三季度履行堅定的客戶承諾。按天計算，DIO 為 94，連續增加 5 天，更接近我們的長期- 95天的長期目標。

Now moving to the distribution channel, which services about half of our total revenue. Inventory continues to remain stubbornly below our long-term targets. During quarter 2, the months of supply in the channel was barely 1.6, which is about a month below our long-term target, and it is now the seventh consecutive quarter of an exceedingly tight supply situation in the channel.

現在轉向分銷渠道，該渠道服務約占我們總收入的一半。庫存繼續頑固地低於我們的長期目標。第二季度，該渠道的供應月數僅為 1.6 個，比我們的長期目標低了大約一個月，現在是該渠道供應極度緊張的連續第七個季度。

Finally, let me speak to our ability to service customer requirements. Lead times continue to be extended, with more than 80% of all products being quoted at 52 weeks or greater, which is actually on a similar level to last quarter.

最後，讓我談談我們滿足客戶要求的能力。交貨時間繼續延長，超過 80% 的產品報價為 52 週或更長，實際上與上一季度的水平相似。

So in summary, against this dynamic backdrop, our second quarter and the first half of the year was a good beginning to what we view will be a positive year for NXP. We do continue to see the second half of the year greater than the first on an absolute dollar basis.

總而言之，在這種動態背景下，我們的第二季度和今年上半年是我們認為對恩智浦來說將是積極的一年的良好開端。在絕對美元基礎上，我們確實繼續看到今年下半年大於上半年。

Now let me turn to our expectations for quarter 3. We are guiding revenue at $3.425 billion, up about 20% versus the third quarter of 2021, within a range of up 17% to up 22% year-on-year. From a sequential perspective, this represents growth of about 3% at the midpoint versus the prior quarter.

現在讓我談談我們對第三季度的預期。我們的指導收入為 34.25 億美元，與 2021 年第三季度相比增長約 20%，同比增長 17% 至 22%。從連續的角度來看，這意味著中點與上一季度相比增長了約 3%。

At the midpoint, we anticipate the following trends in our business. Automotive is expected to be up in the low 20% range versus quarter 3 '21 and up in the mid-single-digit range versus quarter 2 '22. Industrial & IoT is expected to be up in the low 20% range year-on-year and up in the mid-single-digit range versus quarter 2 '22. Mobile is expected to be up about 10% year-on-year and down in the low single-digit range versus quarter 2 '22. And finally, Communication Infrastructure & Other is expected to be up in the low double-digit range versus the same period a year ago and up in the low single-digit range on a sequential basis.

在中點，我們預計我們的業務將出現以下趨勢。與 21 年第 3 季度相比，汽車預計將在 20% 的低位範圍內上漲，與 22 年第 2 季度相比，預計將在中個位數範圍內上漲。與 22 年第 2 季度相比，工業和物聯網預計將同比增長 20% 的低位，並在中個位數範圍內增長。與 22 年第 2 季度相比，移動設備預計將同比增長約 10%，並在低個位數範圍內下降。最後，與去年同期相比，通信基礎設施和其他預計將在兩位數的低位範圍內增長，並在連續的低個位數範圍內增長。

Let me summarize. The growth we have anticipated for 2022 is materializing, notwithstanding the clear macro crosscurrents and the continued supply challenges. We do continue to see strong customer demand in the Automotive and Industrial segments as well as within our company-specific accelerated growth drivers. Overall, demand continues to outpace increasing supply. However, we are staying paranoid about the macro environment. And hence, we will continue to work very diligently and in a very disciplined manner to assure inventory across all end markets remains lean.

讓我總結一下。儘管存在明顯的宏觀逆流和持續的供應挑戰，但我們對 2022 年的預期增長正在實現。我們確實在汽車和工業領域以及我們公司特定的加速增長驅動力中繼續看到強勁的客戶需求。總體而言，需求繼續超過供應增加。然而，我們對宏觀環境保持偏執。因此，我們將繼續非常勤奮和非常有紀律地工作，以確保所有終端市場的庫存保持精簡。

And with that, I would like to pass the bill over to you -- the call over to you, Bill, for a review of our financial performance. Bill?

有了這個，我想把賬單轉給你——打電話給你，比爾，審查我們的財務業績。賬單？

Thank you, Kurt, and good morning to everyone on today's call. As Kurt has already covered the drivers of the revenue during Q2 and provided our revenue outlook for Q3, I will move to the financial highlights.

謝謝你，庫爾特，今天電話會議上的每個人早上好。由於庫爾特已經涵蓋了第二季度收入的驅動因素並提供了我們對第三季度的收入前景，我將轉向財務亮點。

Overall, our Q2 financial performance was very good. Revenue was $37 million above the midpoint of our guidance range. And both non-GAAP gross profit and non-GAAP operating profit were above the midpoint of our guidance.

總體而言，我們第二季度的財務表現非常好。收入比我們指導範圍的中點高出 3700 萬美元。非美國通用會計準則毛利和非美國通用會計準則營業利潤均高於我們指引的中點。

Now moving to the details of Q2. Total revenue was $3.31 billion, up 28% year-on-year and above the midpoint of our guidance range. We generated $1.92 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 57.8%, which is up 170 basis points year-on-year and both above the midpoint of the guidance range as a result of higher revenue and positive product mix.

現在轉到第二季度的細節。總收入為 33.1 億美元，同比增長 28%，高於我們指導範圍的中點。我們產生了 19.2 億美元的非公認會計準則毛利潤，報告的非公認會計準則毛利率為 57.8%，同比增長 170 個基點，均高於指導範圍的中點，這是由於收入增加和積極的產品組合。

Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $724 million or 21.9%, up $98 million year-on-year and up $36 million from Q1, in line with our guidance range but the lower long-term model. From a total operating profit perspective, non-GAAP operating profit was $1.19 billion, and non-GAAP operating margin was 36%, up 400 basis points year-on-year and both above the midpoint of the guidance range. Non-GAAP interest expense was $97 million, with cash taxes for ongoing operations of $150 million or approximately 13.7% effective cash tax rate, and noncontrolling interest was $13 million. Stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP earnings, was $89 million.

非美國通用會計準則運營費用總額為 7.24 億美元或 21.9%，同比增加 9800 萬美元，較第一季度增加 3600 萬美元，符合我們的指導範圍，但長期模型較低。從總營業利潤來看，非美國通用會計準則營業利潤為11.9億美元，非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為36%，同比增長400個基點，均高於指導區間的中點。非 GAAP 利息支出為 9700 萬美元，持續經營的現金稅為 1.5 億美元，有效現金稅率約為 13.7%，非控股權益為 1300 萬美元。不包括在我們的非公認會計原則收益中的基於股票的薪酬為 8900 萬美元。

Now I would like to turn to the changes in our cash and debt. Our total debt at the end of Q1 was $11.16 billion, up $587 million sequentially as we issued $1.5 billion of new debt and simultaneously retired early the $900 million of debt, which was due in June of 2023. Our ending cash position was $3.55 billion, up $862 million sequentially due to a combination of the previously mentioned financing, CapEx investments and capital returns during Q2. The resulting net debt was $7.62 billion, and we exited the quarter with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $4.96 billion. Our ratio of net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at the end of Q2 was 1.5x, and our 12-month adjusted EBITDA interest coverage was 12.7x.

現在我想談談我們的現金和債務的變化。我們在第一季度末的總債務為 111.6 億美元，比上一季度增加 5.87 億美元，因為我們發行了 15 億美元的新債務，同時提前償還了 2023 年 6 月到期的 9 億美元債務。我們的期末現金頭寸為 35.5 億美元，由於前面提到的融資、資本支出投資和第二季度的資本回報，環比增長 8.62 億美元。由此產生的淨債務為 76.2 億美元，我們在本季度結束時的 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 為 49.6 億美元。我們在第二季度末的淨債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.5 倍，我們 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 利息覆蓋率為 12.7 倍。

Turning to working capital metrics, days of inventory was 94 days, an increase of 5 days sequentially, and close to our long-term DIO target of 95 days as we continue to experience incrementally improved supply trends. The increase in on-hand inventory was primarily in raw materials and work in process to support revenue growth in subsequent periods especially Q3. We continue to closely manage our distribution channel, with inventory in the channel at 1.6 months, well below our long-term target. Days receivable were 27 days, flat sequentially. And days payable were 94, an increase of 1 day versus the prior quarter.

轉向營運資金指標，庫存天數為 94 天，比上一季度增加 5 天，接近我們 95 天的長期 DIO 目標，因為我們繼續經歷逐漸改善的供應趨勢。現有庫存的增加主要是原材料和在製品，以支持後續期間尤其是第三季度的收入增長。我們繼續密切管理我們的分銷渠道，渠道庫存為 1.6 個月，遠低於我們的長期目標。應收天數為 27 天，環比持平。應付天數為 94 天，比上一季度增加 1 天。

Taken together, our cash conversion cycle was 27 days, reflecting strong customer demand, solid receivable collections and positioning for customer deliveries for future periods. Our working capital management and balance sheet metrics continue to be very strong.

總而言之，我們的現金轉換週期為 27 天，反映了強勁的客戶需求、穩健的應收賬款以及未來期間客戶交付的定位。我們的營運資金管理和資產負債表指標仍然非常強勁。

Cash flow from operations was $819 million, and net CapEx was $268 million or 8.1% of revenue, resulting in non-GAAP free cash flow of $551 million or 17% of revenue. During Q2, we paid $222 million in cash dividends. On a trailing 12-month basis, we have returned 132% of our non-GAAP free cash flow back to the owners of the company, consistent with our capital allocation strategy. The cash flow generation of the business continues to be excellent.

運營現金流為 8.19 億美元，淨資本支出為 2.68 億美元，佔收入的 8.1%，非 GAAP 自由現金流為 5.51 億美元，佔收入的 17%。在第二季度，我們支付了 2.22 億美元的現金股息。在過去 12 個月的基礎上，我們已將 132% 的非公認會計原則自由現金流返還給公司所有者，這與我們的資本分配策略一致。業務產生的現金流量仍然非常出色。

Turning now to our expectations for Q3. As Kurt mentioned, we anticipate revenue to be about $3.425 billion, plus or minus about $75 million at the midpoint. This is up 20% year-on-year and about 3% sequentially. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be about 57.8%, plus or minus 50 basis points.

現在轉向我們對第三季度的預期。正如庫爾特所說，我們預計收入約為 34.25 億美元，中間值上下浮動約 7500 萬美元。同比增長 20%，環比增長約 3%。我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率約為 57.8%，上下浮動 50 個基點。

Operating expenses are expected to be about $743 million, plus or minus about $10 million, which is up about 3% sequentially, driven by hiring, especially new college graduates and our normal project spend. Taken together, we see non-GAAP operating margin to be 36.1% at the midpoint. We estimate non-GAAP financial expense to be about $95 million and anticipate cash tax related to ongoing operations to be about $160 million or about a 14% effective cash tax rate, consistent with our communicated model.

運營費用預計約為 7.43 億美元，上下浮動約 1000 萬美元，環比增長約 3%，主要受招聘，尤其是應屆大學畢業生和我們正常項目支出的推動。綜合來看，我們認為非 GAAP 營業利潤率在中點為 36.1%。我們估計非 GAAP 財務費用約為 9500 萬美元，預計與持續運營相關的現金稅約為 1.6 億美元或約 14% 的有效現金稅率，與我們的溝通模型一致。

Noncontrolling interest should be about $13 million. For Q3, we suggest that, for modeling purposes, you use an average share count of 265 million shares.

非控制性權益應約為 1300 萬美元。對於第三季度，出於建模目的，我們建議您使用 2.65 億股的平均股數。

Finally, I have a few closing comments I'd like to make. First, as Kurt mentioned in his prepared remarks, we have attempted to derisk our Q3 outlook given the combination of the uncertain macroeconomic environment, and we'll document the weakness in the Mobile and consumer end markets. Despite these potential risks, customer demand in the Automotive and Industrial remains strong and greater than our immediate ability to supply.

最後，我想說幾句結束語。首先，正如庫爾特在準備好的講話中提到的那樣，鑑於宏觀經濟環境的不確定性，我們試圖降低第三季度前景的風險，我們將記錄移動和消費終端市場的疲軟。儘管存在這些潛在風險，但汽車和工業領域的客戶需求仍然強勁，超過了我們的直接供應能力。

Secondly, from a unique revenue growth standpoint, since November of last year at Investor Day, we discussed 6 accelerated growth drivers. Looking at our first half performance of 2022 versus the same period last year, we are very well on track to the targets we presented.

其次，從獨特的收入增長角度來看，自去年 11 月的投資者日以來，我們討論了 6 個加速增長的驅動因素。從我們 2022 年上半年與去年同期的表現來看，我們非常順利地實現了我們提出的目標。

Lastly, our people. We are very proud of all our team members globally and especially those in China, who continue to overcome severe COVID restrictions while simultaneously dealing with global supply chain disruptions this past quarter. We continue to be amazed at our employees' incredible dedication and resilience and for powering through these extremely tough times. Our results are a testament to their hard work.

最後是我們的人。我們為全球所有團隊成員，尤其是中國團隊成員感到非常自豪，他們繼續克服嚴重的 COVID 限制，同時在上個季度應對全球供應鏈中斷。我們繼續對我們員工令人難以置信的奉獻精神和韌性以及在這些極其艱難的時期提供動力感到驚訝。我們的結果證明了他們的辛勤工作。

With that, thank you, and I'll now turn it back over to the operator for questions.

有了這個，謝謝你，我現在把它交給接線員提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question coming from the line of William Stein from Truist.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Truist 的 William Stein。

Congratulations on the strong execution. My first question relates to your reference to risk-adjusted backlog. Bill, you've done a -- both Bill and Kurt have done a bit of explaining that in the prepared remarks. But I'm wondering if you can comment on your nominal backlog. And it sounds like the reasoning is related to more things you see outside of the company than what you see in your actual order trends. Maybe you can talk about the thought process and the magnitude of that risk adjustment.

祝賀強大的執行力。我的第一個問題與您提到的風險調整積壓有關。比爾，你已經做了——比爾和庫爾特都在準備好的評論中做了一些解釋。但我想知道您是否可以評論您名義上的積壓。聽起來這個推理與您在公司之外看到的東西有關，而不是您在實際訂單趨勢中看到的東西。也許你可以談談思考過程和風險調整的幅度。

Yes. Thanks, Will. What I tried to convey is indeed, first and foremost, that for the foreseeable period ahead of us, we are actually only covered with 80% with our supply against the true demand which we see. And when I say true demand, then that comes back to the risk adjustment. For good reasons, we have never revealed the size of our backlog to the past quarters because I think I've always been clear that we've always believed, inside that huge backlog, there might be double orders which is just normal human behavior in times of shortage.

是的。謝謝，威爾。首先，我試圖傳達的確實是，在我們面前的可預見的時期內，我們實際上只有 80% 的供應量與我們所看到的真實需求相比。當我說真正的需求時，這又回到了風險調整上。有充分的理由，我們從來沒有透露過去幾個季度的積壓量，因為我想我一直很清楚，我們一直相信，在巨大的積壓中，可能會有雙份訂單，這只是正常的人類行為短缺時期。

Now over the past quarters, we have clearly learned much more from a transparency perspective about the true minimum needs of our end customers across all markets. And we have very rigidly applied that knowledge to try and actually risk-adjust that backlog in order to come to a number which is maybe more meaningful. And I just want to emphasize, after doing that, Will, we still have only that 80% coverage of our increasing supply capability against that risk-adjusted demand. So what we try to say is we try to be realistic around the size of the backlog that's why we risk-adjusted, and that is different in each of the markets we serve. The result of it leads in the foreseeable future to 80% coverage of that adjusted demand.

現在，在過去的幾個季度中，我們從透明度的角度清楚地了解了更多關於我們在所有市場中的最終客戶的真正最低需求的信息。我們已經非常嚴格地應用這些知識來嘗試並實際調整積壓的風險，以便得出一個可能更有意義的數字。我只想強調，在這樣做之後，威爾，我們仍然只有 80% 的覆蓋率來應對風險調整後的需求，我們不斷增加的供應能力。因此，我們試圖說的是，我們試圖對積壓的規模保持現實，這就是我們進行風險調整的原因，這在我們服務的每個市場中都是不同的。其結果是在可預見的未來將覆蓋調整後需求的 80%。

Great. That helps a lot. Maybe the follow-up to that feels pretty natural is, what is the company doing to improve [supply] with internal capacity, your current foundry partners? And is there any effort underway to extend foundry relationships that could allow you to sort of come closer to meeting your customer demand?

偉大的。這很有幫助。也許對此感覺很自然的後續行動是，公司正在採取哪些措施來提高[供應]的內部能力，您目前的代工合作夥伴？是否正在努力擴展代工廠關係，讓您更接近滿足客戶的需求？

Yes. Clearly, we absolutely stick to our hybrid manufacturing model. We continue to believe, and I think the results of the past 6 to 8 quarters have given good evidence of that, that this is -- for the portfolio, we are serving a very superior model of serving the needs of our customers. And what that means is that, indeed, we are working on both ends of the equation. About 60% of our current wafer supply is coming from foundry partners. And that is more and more predominantly tuned into CMOS logic processes, especially when it comes to 300-millimeter and when it is below 90 nanometers.

是的。顯然，我們絕對堅持我們的混合製造模式。我們繼續相信，而且我認為過去 6 到 8 個季度的結果已經很好地證明了這一點，即對於產品組合，我們正在為滿足客戶需求的非常優越的模式提供服務。這意味著，事實上，我們正在研究等式的兩端。我們目前大約 60% 的晶圓供應來自代工合作夥伴。這越來越多地用於 CMOS 邏輯工藝，尤其是在 300 毫米和 90 納米以下時。

And in there, we are definitely ramping up significantly our partnerships and our strategic collaboration with key foundry partners. We've spoken about this in the past. And that is also what clearly is helping us in the past quarters. In the coming quarter, we talked about the sequential growth going forward in incrementally increasing our supply. At the very same time, we are remodeling our own factories, which are all 200-millimeter facilities, to be the prime place for manufacturing proprietary specialty processes, which are unique to NXP. And by moving out more of the CMOS to our foundry partners, we are creating more space internally in our existing facilities to serve the increased and ever-growing needs for these proprietary technologies going forward.

在那裡，我們肯定會顯著加強我們的合作夥伴關係以及與主要代工合作夥伴的戰略合作。我們過去曾談到過這個問題。這也是過去幾個季度明顯幫助我們的原因。在下一季度，我們談到了在逐步增加供應方面的連續增長。與此同時，我們正在改造我們自己的工廠，這些工廠都是 200 毫米的設施，成為製造恩智浦獨有的專有專業工藝的主要場所。通過將更多 CMOS 轉移給我們的代工合作夥伴，我們在現有設施內部創造了更多空間，以滿足未來對這些專有技術不斷增長和不斷增長的需求。

So that is a refinement of the hybrid model. But it's still important that I really want to emphasize we stick to the hybrid model, which again has also allowed us to outgrow our key peers in that market over the last 6 quarters.

這是對混合模型的改進。但仍然很重要的是，我真的想強調我們堅持混合模式，這也讓我們在過去 6 個季度中超越了該市場的主要同行。

And our next question coming from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾（Ross Seymore）。

Kurt, I wanted to dive a little bit into the potential disconnect of you guys doing everything you can to manage the backlog, scrub it, appreciate what's going on in macro. But yet the guidance seems fine in the quarter, and you said you're going to grow in the second half versus the first.

庫爾特，我想深入探討一下你們可能會竭盡全力管理積壓，清理它，欣賞宏觀上正在發生的事情。但是，該季度的指導似乎很好，你說你將在下半年與上半年相比有所增長。

So I guess, as you look at that, when do you think it will start to be a little bit more apparent what macro is doing if it stays like it is? And maybe more pointedly, it's great that you're growing in the second half, but last quarter, you said you thought you would grow sequentially in the third and fourth quarters. So does that growth in the second half imply that you still believe you will grow sequentially in the fourth quarter?

所以我想，當你看到它時，你認為如果它保持原樣，它什麼時候會開始變得更加明顯？也許更明確地說，你在下半年增長很好，但上個季度，你說你認為你會在第三季度和第四季度連續增長。那麼下半年的增長是否意味著您仍然相信您將在第四季度連續增長？

Yes, so thanks, Ross. First of all, indeed, we try to make sure that you all hear loud and clear that we are not neglecting the crosscurrents in the macro, which have also started to be visible in our orders, especially in the Mobile market. Now Mobile is, for us, relatively small, so it doesn't really impact the whole company very much. But the principle we are applying is to be hyper disciplined and hyper paranoid to not grow any inventory down the chain. So we try to stay there as disciplined as we can be, and the first area where we are applying this as we speak is in our Mobile market and, to a certain extent, in the small portions of consumer -- more consumer-oriented segments inside our Industrial & IoT sector.

是的，謝謝，羅斯。首先，事實上，我們試圖確保大家都清楚地聽到我們沒有忽視宏觀中的交叉流，這些交叉流也開始在我們的訂單中顯現出來，尤其是在移動市場中。現在移動，對我們來說，相對較小，所以它並沒有真正對整個公司產生太大影響。但是我們應用的原則是要高度自律和高度偏執，不要在鏈條上增加任何庫存。所以我們盡量保持自律，我們首先應用的領域是我們的移動市場，在一定程度上，在消費者的一小部分——更多以消費者為導向的細分市場在我們的工業和物聯網領域。

Now when you ask about the second half, yes, we are confirming within this more turmoiled macro that the second half is going to grow sequentially over the first half in absolute dollar terms. We just gave you the guidance for quarter 3. I don't have a crystal ball for quarter 4, but I can tell you that we remain totally sold out for the rest of the year. I also tried to highlight that supply continues to ramp up sequentially into the next quarters. So I cannot really make a firm assessment on what Mobile and other consumer markets will do into the fourth quarter. But clearly, from the strength in the Automotive and Industrial sectors which we are serving, we are quite optimistic for the second half to also continue to grow sequentially.

現在，當您詢問下半年時，是的，我們在這個更加動蕩的宏觀環境中確認，以絕對美元計算，下半年將比上半年連續增長。我們剛剛為您提供了第 3 季度的指導。我沒有第 4 季度的水晶球，但我可以告訴您，我們在今年剩下的時間裡仍然完全售罄。我還試圖強調，供應量將在接下來的幾個季度繼續增加。因此，我無法真正對移動和其他消費市場到第四季度的表現做出確切的評估。但顯然，從我們所服務的汽車和工業領域的實力來看，我們對下半年也將繼續保持連續增長相當樂觀。

I guess my follow-up one for Bill. I noticed this is the first quarter in, I think, a couple of years that you guys didn't repurchase any shares. Lots of people trying to read into what that may or may not mean. But can you go into the thinking of what led you to stop the buyback for a quarter?

我想我是比爾的後續行動。我注意到這是幾年來你們沒有回購任何股票的第一季度。很多人試圖解讀這可能意味著什麼，也可能不意味著什麼。但是你能想一想是什麼導致你停止回購一個季度嗎？

Yes, first off, thanks, Ross, for your question, and I wouldn't read too much into it. First off, there's no change to our capital return policy. As stated many, many times, we will return all excess free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis. During Q2, in my prepared remarks, we returned 132% of our 12 -- trailing 12 months for free cash flow. Remember, we also raised our dividend in the quarter by 50%, and we still have authorization buyback of over $3 billion from our Board. At the end of the year, we do expect to return to be at least 100% or higher, consistent with our stated policy.

是的，首先，謝謝你的問題，羅斯，我不會讀太多。首先，我們的資本回報政策沒有變化。正如很多次所說，我們將在過去 12 個月的基礎上返還所有多餘的自由現金流。在第二季度，在我準備好的評論中，我們返回了 12 個中的 132%——過去 12 個月的自由現金流。請記住，我們還在本季度將股息提高了 50%，而且我們仍然從董事會獲得超過 30 億美元的授權回購。在今年年底，我們確實預計回報率至少會達到 100% 或更高，這與我們的既定政策一致。

And our next question coming from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 和 Evercore ISI。

I guess first question, Kurt, I was hoping you could speak to how you're thinking about the overall state of the auto industry. This morning (inaudible), but it looks like your second half prior outlook was perhaps a bit aggressive. At the same time, you have OEMs that are waiting for those golden screws, and hopefully, we'll get those. But as I look at your mix, obviously, EV and ADAS, along with higher input costs and higher ASPs, are sustaining excellent growth for you guys.

我想第一個問題，Kurt，我希望你能談談你對汽車行業整體狀況的看法。今天早上（聽不清），但看起來你之前的下半年前景可能有點激進。與此同時，您有 OEM 正在等待那些金螺絲，希望我們能得到這些。但是當我看到你們的組合時，顯然，EV 和 ADAS，以及更高的投入成本和更高的 ASP，正在為你們維持出色的增長。

So curious, how do you see things playing out? And what -- when do you think we can normalize in the auto supply demand side of things? Is that in 2023? Or might that be longer?

很好奇，你怎麼看待事情的發展？還有什麼 - 你認為我們什麼時候可以在汽車供需方面正常化？那是在2023年嗎？或者可能會更長？

Yes. Thanks, C.J. That's not an easy question. I dare to follow IHS in the first place, which I think hasn't changed the forecast for this year for the SAAR very much. I think the continue to speak about like a 5% growth of the SAAR this year, which would get us to, well, just short of 81 million cars this year. However, that includes a 9% half 2 over half 1 growth in car production this year, which is not a big surprise because I think half 1, again, has suffered massively from semiconductor shortages. And especially in the second quarter, it has suffered a lot from the COVID shutdowns in China, which impacted mainly the Japanese, Chinese and Southeast Asian car production. I mean there was little less pronounced for the Western world but a lot in China and Japan. And mind you that China continues to be the largest car country in the world.

是的。謝謝，C.J. 這不是一個簡單的問題。我敢於首先關注 IHS，我認為這並沒有太大改變今年對 SAAR 的預測。我認為今年 SAAR 將繼續增長 5%，這將使我們今年的汽車銷量接近 8100 萬輛。然而，這包括今年汽車產量 9% 的半 2 超過半 1 的增長，這並不令人意外，因為我認為半 1 再次受到半導體短缺的嚴重影響。尤其是在第二季度，它在中國因新冠疫情而遭受重創，主要影響了日本、中國和東南亞的汽車生產。我的意思是，西方世界沒有那麼明顯，但在中國和日本卻很多。請注意，中國仍然是世界上最大的汽車國家。

So from a shorter-term perspective, C.J., I think half 2 car production will grow quite nicely over the first half finally, and that trend should also continue, according to IHS, into the next year, which I think will be another 8% growth or so. All of that, in our view, is still probably short of consumer demand. Now it will depend on the macro and blooming recessions in different geographies, to what extent consumer demand is muted for cars. But we think the car production is so low and so far below the highs in 2018 or early '19 that even if consumer demand is muting, there is still a gap such that, I think, it's very realistic to assume that car production continues to grow.

所以從短期的角度來看，C.J.，我認為上半年的汽車產量最終會比上半年增長得相當好，而且根據 IHS 的說法，這種趨勢也應該會持續到明年，我認為這將是另外 8%增長左右。在我們看來，所有這些都可能仍不足以滿足消費者的需求。現在，這將取決於不同地區的宏觀經濟衰退和經濟衰退，消費者對汽車的需求減弱到何種程度。但我們認為汽車產量如此之低，遠低於 2018 年或 19 年初的高點，即使消費者需求減弱，仍然存在差距，我認為，假設汽車產量繼續增長是非常現實的生長。

Now at the same time, and I know we have discussed it to death before, the bigger factor for us, however, certainly remains the content increase. And from a content increase, it's just amazing. Every quarter, I come with new numbers here, especially EV penetration has accelerated again. I think the latest forecast for this year is now that 26% of the global car production is going to be xEVs. I think last quarter, we talked about 23%. I mean these are massive numbers. And this 26% this year is in absolute terms of 46% year-on-year growth in xEV production. And again, mind you that with our battery management inverter control and many, many microprocessors and micro controllers associated with xEVs and an overall semi contact, which is more than 2x relative to combustion engine cars, this continues to be a massive momentum ahead of the car production, which in itself is now also growing.

現在同時，我知道我們之前已經討論過它，但是對我們來說更大的因素當然仍然是內容的增加。從內容的增加來看，這真是太神奇了。每個季度，我都會帶來新的數字，尤其是電動汽車的滲透率再次加速。我認為今年的最新預測是，全球汽車產量的 26% 將是 xEV。我認為上個季度，我們談到了 23%。我的意思是這些數字很大。而今年這 26% 的絕對值是 xEV 產量同比增長 46% 的絕對值。再次提醒您，憑藉我們的電池管理逆變器控制以及與 xEV 相關的許多微處理器和微控制器以及整體半接觸式（相對於內燃機汽車而言是 2 倍以上），這仍然是一個巨大的動力。汽車生產本身也在增長。

So sorry for the lengthy reply, but we are quite animated about the fact that there continues to be a big gap there, and the content increase is pulling the card for us.

很抱歉這麼長的回复，但我們很高興看到那裡仍然存在很大的差距，而且內容的增加正在為我們拉牌。

That's very helpful. As my follow-up, I heard the earlier comments around absolutely adhering to your hybrid manufacturing model, but you did speak to optimizing your internal capacity and considering the 8-inch, 90-nanometer and above demand that's out there. Is there a point in time where you would need to consider a new JV factory with TSMC?

這很有幫助。作為我的後續行動，我聽到了關於絕對堅持您的混合製造模型的較早評論，但您確實談到了優化您的內部產能並考慮了 8 英寸、90 納米及以上的需求。您是否需要考慮與台積電建立新的合資工廠？

Well, first half of your question, yes. Second half, I will not comment to because the matter of the fact is, yes, what I described will very naturally, with continuously growing demand, leads to a moment where our internal 4 walls' existing capacity, even after the reshuffling I described, will not be enough to serve future demand.

好吧，你的問題的前半部分，是的。下半年，我不會評論，因為事實是，是的，我所描述的將很自然地，隨著需求的不斷增長，導致我們內部 4 牆的現有容量，即使在我描述的重新洗牌之後，不足以滿足未來的需求。

So yes, we will do something about it, but there is various different ways of achieving this, C.J. So it don't get locked down into the idea with TSM. There is all sorts of options which we can do, including but, again, not exclusively but also including the opportunities which are being provided by the chipset in Europe and the U.S., where the majority of our facilities are.

所以是的，我們會對此做一些事情，但是有多種不同的方法可以實現這一點，C.J. 所以它不會被 TSM 鎖定在這個想法中。我們可以做各種各樣的選擇，但同樣，不僅限於，還包括芯片組在歐洲和美國提供的機會，我們的大部分設施都在那裡。

And our next question coming from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

Kurt, I wanted to ask about NCNR orders and pricing dynamics. Let's say, if auto production is flat or down next year, I'm curious, how enforceable are these NCNR orders? And how defensible will the pricing strength be in that kind of market?

Kurt，我想問一下 NCNR 訂單和定價動態。比方說，如果明年汽車產量持平或下降，我很好奇，這些 NCNR 訂單的可執行性如何？在這樣的市場中，定價力量的防禦性如何？

Yes, thanks, Vivek. Let me start with the second part, the pricing. Given the very stubborn imbalance between supply and demand in most of the technologies needed for automotive, I have a very high confidence that the pricing is very stable. I would actually -- and maybe unfortunately go a step further. We do continue to see our input cost rising also into next year, which would, indeed, force us to also continue to raise our pricing.

是的，謝謝，維維克。讓我從第二部分開始，定價。鑑於汽車所需的大多數技術的供需之間非常嚴重的不平衡，我非常有信心定價非常穩定。實際上，我會 - 不幸的是，也許會更進一步。我們確實繼續看到我們的投入成本也在上升到明年，這確實會迫使我們也繼續提高我們的定價。

So rather than thinking about pricing to become softer again, I believe that especially in the automotive environment, where the supply-demand imbalance is (inaudible) into next year, there is a chance that pricing continues to go up into next year. Again, and I think I said it a number of times, we have a very clear and very much transparent policy here that we are increasing our prices to the customers in line with the input cost increases which we are experiencing in order to protect our gross margin percentages.

因此，與其考慮價格再次走軟，我相信尤其是在供需失衡（聽不清）到明年的汽車環境中，價格有可能會繼續上漲到明年。再說一次，我想我說過很多次了，我們在這裡有一個非常明確和非常透明的政策，我們正在根據我們正在經歷的投入成本增加來提高對客戶的價格，以保護我們的總收入保證金百分比。

So on that side, from a pricing perspective, even with the flat car production or maybe, as you said -- as you suggested, which I don't think is going to be the case, reducing car production, I think that would still be the case because of the content increases, which are driving so much demand, anyway.

所以在這方面，從定價的角度來看，即使汽車產量持平，或者正如你所說 - 正如你所建議的那樣，我認為不會是這樣，減少汽車產量，我認為這仍然會無論如何，因為內容的增加推動瞭如此多的需求。

Now the other side was the supply situation per se. In a way, I answered it. Given content increases surpassing the impact or outbalancing the impact of the SAAR so much, I unfortunately believe that even in a soft reduction of SAAR next year, we would continue to see, in many technologies, an imbalance between supply and demand next year.

現在的另一面是供應情況本身。在某種程度上，我回答了它。鑑於內容增加的影響超過或超過了 SAAR 的影響，不幸的是，我相信即使明年 SAAR 會溫和減少，我們仍會在許多技術中看到明年供需之間的不平衡。

Right. Then my follow-up is on the margins. So gross margins are getting towards the high end of your target, and I think EBIT margin, from what I see, you're guiding a little bit above the high end of your target model. Is it time to revise the model? And let's say, if Q4 grows sequentially, can margins also continue to expand? Is there still a positive leverage in the model?

正確的。然後我的後續行動處於邊緣。因此，毛利率正在接近目標的高端，而且我認為 EBIT 利潤率，據我所見，您的指導略高於目標模型的高端。是時候修改模型了嗎？比方說，如果第四季度連續增長，利潤率是否也能繼續擴大？模型中是否還有積極的槓桿作用？

Vivek, this is Bill. I'll take that question. So related to the high end of our model, yes, we are performing at those levels at this current time. I'd just like to remind everyone that we'll focus on growing our top line, our revenue. And a faster growth at the top line of 1% will be greater and better than a 1% change in our margin as we go forward. We're not going to update our long-term model every quarter or every year, and we will revisit this during our normal 3-year long-term model that we provide or if there's any material change to our business model.

維維克，這是比爾。我會回答這個問題。因此，與我們模型的高端相關，是的，我們目前處於這些水平。我只想提醒大家，我們將專注於增加我們的收入，我們的收入。隨著我們前進，1% 的收入增長將比我們的利潤率變化 1% 更大更好。我們不會每季度或每年更新我們的長期模型，我們將在我們提供的正常 3 年長期模型期間重新審視這一點，或者如果我們的業務模型有任何重大變化。

So no change. We feel very confident to run, like I mentioned last call, in the -- toward the high end of the model for the rest of the year.

所以沒有變化。就像我在上次電話會議上提到的那樣，我們很有信心在今年剩下的時間裡跑向高端車型。

And our next question is coming from the line of Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Gary Mobley。

I appreciate your commentary with respect to how you derisked in your third quarter guide, the different macro issues and whatnot. But want to ask conversely, what can go right in the last 2-plus months of the quarter to maybe hit the high end of the expectation as it relates to COVID mitigation in China, kitting issues, additional supply and whatnot?

我很欣賞您對您在第三季度指南中如何貶低、不同的宏觀問題以及諸如此類的評論。但反過來想問一下，在本季度的最後兩個多月，什麼可能會達到預期的高端，因為它與中國的 COVID 緩解、配套問題、額外供應等等有關？

Gary, I mean, we give a guidance with the midpoint in the range in order to comprehend risks and opportunities at the same time. I think the elements you just listed are certainly part of, well, both potential risk and potential opportunities. Again, we carefully thought about weighing the upsides and downsides, and that's why we landed on a -- on the midpoint of $3.425 billion as we just guided a couple of minutes ago.

加里，我的意思是，我們給出了範圍中點的指導，以便同時理解風險和機遇。我認為你剛剛列出的元素肯定是潛在風險和潛在機會的一部分。再一次，我們仔細考慮了權衡利弊，這就是為什麼我們在幾分鐘前剛剛指導的 34.25 億美元中點。

I would say the following: for us, the overall sentiment is given the big percentage in our revenue is obviously dominated by how Automotive and Industrial markets are going. And here, a guidance for the next quarter is really driven by what we hear from our customers. I mean it's such a short period of time in a way that it is really just tuned into the short-term customer-confirmed orders and our supply capability. And the way I would put it, Q3 upsides are probably more than anything dominated by our supply capabilities since we are sold out for the quarter.

我想說的是：對我們來說，整體情緒在我們的收入中佔很大比例顯然是由汽車和工業市場的發展方式所主導。在這裡，下一季度的指導實際上是由我們從客戶那裡聽到的信息驅動的。我的意思是它的時間很短，實際上只是調整到短期客戶確認的訂單和我們的供應能力。我想說的是，第三季度的上漲可能比我們的供應能力主導的任何事情都重要，因為我們在本季度已經售罄。

Appreciate the color, Kurt. As my follow-up, I wanted to ask about the 6 accelerated growth drivers that you begin to outline at your Analyst Day and continue to outline. Of the 6 and looking out over the next 12 months, which of those 6 would you expect to be the biggest contributor to your revenue growth?

欣賞顏色，庫爾特。作為我的後續行動，我想詢問您在分析師日開始概述並繼續概述的 6 個加速增長驅動因素。在未來 12 個月的 6 個中，您認為這 6 個中的哪一個會成為您收入增長的最大貢獻者？

Well, the 6 accelerated growth drivers, I mean, we guided them for 3 years. When we did our Investor Day in November of last year, that was really meant as a 3-year guidance. And you've also seen the relative sizes between them and the relative growth speed. And I think Bill, in his prepared remarks, emphasized that we are, what did you say, very well on track, Bill, for all 6 of them. So I think the way you should look at this is that all 6 are very much intact and the relative contribution of them is in line with how we guided them at the Investor Day last November. There is no change. But what I think is important to say is that they are all on a very good track.

嗯，6 個加速增長的驅動力，我的意思是，我們引導了他們 3 年。當我們在去年 11 月舉辦投資者日時，這實際上是一個為期 3 年的指導。而且您還看到了它們之間的相對大小和相對增長速度。我認為比爾，在他準備好的發言中，強調了我們，你說什麼，都在軌道上，比爾，對於所有 6 人。所以我認為你應該看待這件事的方式是，所有 6 個都非常完整，它們的相對貢獻與我們在去年 11 月的投資者日對它們的指導方式一致。沒有變化。但我認為重要的是，他們都在一個非常好的軌道上。

And our next question coming from the line of Joseph Moore or with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自約瑟夫摩爾或摩根士丹利。

In your answer to your prior question, you said you were going to be careful with sort of customers trying to build inventory, but there's also a clear message from your Automotive customers that they do want to hold a larger amount of safety stock. Can you talk to that effort generally? Do you see that build having started yet? Where -- do you plan to allow them to have to hold more safety buffer? And do you expect that to happen at the OEM level or at the Tier 1 level if that does happen?

在您對先前問題的回答中，您說您將對嘗試建立庫存的客戶保持謹慎，但您的汽車客戶也明確表示他們確實希望持有更多的安全庫存。你能談談這種努力嗎？你看到那個構建已經開始了嗎？哪裡——你打算讓他們擁有更多的安全緩衝？如果發生這種情況，您是否希望在 OEM 級別或 Tier 1 級別發生這種情況？

Yes, Stacy (sic) [Joseph]. that is an important dynamic indeed. So in general, I'd say the OEMs try to leave that challenge with the Tier 1s. There might be exceptions here and there, but the more general direction is that the OEMs put this on the shoulders of the Tier 1s. Size of that is varying. We see and hear about requests, which are in the order of 3 months. We hear others which talk about 6 months of inventory. It is also not the same for each product. They categorize, I think, more into very single-source, very strategic products versus more commodity-like products. So it has all sorts of variations, but I think, first of all, general message, more with the Tier 1s than the OEMs.

是的，斯泰西（原文如此）[約瑟夫]。這確實是一個重要的動力。所以總的來說，我會說原始設備製造商試圖將這一挑戰留給一級供應商。可能會有例外，但更普遍的方向是原始設備製造商將其置於一級供應商的肩上。大小不一。我們會看到並聽到大約 3 個月的請求。我們聽到其他人談論 6 個月的庫存。每個產品也不相同。我認為，他們將更多地分類為非常單一來源、非常戰略性的產品，而不是更多類似商品的產品。所以它有各種各樣的變化，但我認為，首先，一般信息，更多的是一級而不是原始設備製造商。

Has it started yet? No. The supply capability, at least relative to NXP product, I mean I can't make that comment for my peers. But for our product, no, it hasn't started yet.

已經開始了嗎？不。供應能力，至少相對於恩智浦的產品而言，我的意思是我不能對我的同行發表評論。但是對於我們的產品，不，它還沒有開始。

Any inventory build, which accidentally might happen at Tier 1 at the moment is indeed more related to the golden screw problem, where it builds for a while and then it flushes through again when the golden screw product becomes available. But that's not associated with or because of the intended safety stocks. I believe that somewhere in the course of next year, that will, in a more methodical way, start to be built. I do, indeed, believe that towards 6 months might be a consensus many of them want to achieve. But again, only in the course of next year.

目前可能在第 1 層意外發生的任何庫存構建確實與金螺釘問題更相關，它會構建一段時間，然後在金螺釘產品可用時再次刷新。但這與預期的安全庫存無關，也不是因為它。我相信在明年的某個時候，它將以更有條理的方式開始建造。事實上，我確實相信，接近 6 個月可能是他們中許多人想要達成的共識。但同樣，僅在明年的過程中。

And our next question coming from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stacy Rasgon 與 Bernstein 的對話。

The first one, Bill, I wanted to follow up on a comment that you might have made in passing. I know you guys had talked about derisking Q3 backlog, but Bill, you actually said that you derisked Q3 outlook. I'm actually wondering, did you actually reduce the revenue outlook that you gave, coincident with some of the cautions that you talked about? I'm not sure you did because it also sounds like you're supply-constrained anyways. But was there any sort of reduction at all in your outlook given the macro issues that you're seeing? And if so, like how much was it and which end markets?

第一個，比爾，我想跟進您可能順便發表的評論。我知道你們曾經說過要取消第三季度的積壓，但比爾，你實際上說你取消了第三季度的前景。我實際上想知道，您是否真的降低了您給出的收入前景，與您談到的一些警告一致？我不確定您是否這樣做，因為無論如何聽起來您都受到供應限制。但是，鑑於您所看到的宏觀問題，您的前景是否有任何減少？如果是這樣，它有多少以及哪些終端市場？

Yes, so probably that is a matter of fact for especially the Mobile market, where you saw that we actually guided sequentially a touchdown. Since we are not overly, but we are also exposed to the low-end Android players in China, and I have a total paranoia to not build any inventory there. So I'd say there is probably indeed a risk adjustment on -- from the macro perspective relative to Mobile in that particular part of our business. There, at the same time, in Auto and Industrial for the third quarter, I can only repeat what I said earlier. We are sold out, and the revenue capability is much more determined by our supply capability in the third quarter. So it's a mixed picture where the majority is clearly -- continues to be supply-constrained.

是的，所以這可能是一個事實，尤其是移動市場，你看到我們實際上是按順序引導觸地得分的。由於我們並不過分，但我們也接觸到了中國的低端 Android 玩家，我完全偏執於不在那裡建立任何庫存。所以我想說，在我們業務的特定部分，從相對於移動的宏觀角度來看，可能確實存在風險調整。與此同時，在第三季度的汽車和工業方面，我只能重複我之前所說的。我們已經售罄，收入能力更多地取決於我們在第三季度的供應能力。所以這是一個喜憂參半的情況，其中大多數人顯然 - 繼續受到供應限制。

The risk adjustment -- let me take one more. The risk adjustment was also a longer-term message, which is really related to the assessment of about 80% supply coverage against demand. That is not just a statement for Q3. I mean that is really a statement for the longer-term period. I would go that far to say it includes very large parts of next year actually, where that judgment is done after risk adjustments. And risk adjustments are also when we get all the patterns, say, in Automotive -- from Automotive customers, and we add them all up, and then we know what content increases should be. We know where the car production could possibly be next year. And then, of course, you see that all the different Tier 1s want to win market share. All the OEMs want to win market share against each other. And the sum of the parts is the bigger of what could be realistic.

風險調整——讓我再做一個。風險調整也是一個較長期的信息，這實際上與對約 80% 的供應覆蓋率與需求的評估有關。這不僅僅是第三季度的聲明。我的意思是這確實是一個長期的聲明。我會說它實際上包括明年的很大一部分，在風險調整後做出判斷。當我們從汽車客戶那裡獲得所有模式時，也就是風險調整，我們將它們全部加起來，然後我們知道應該增加哪些內容。我們知道明年汽車生產可能在哪裡。然後，當然，您會看到所有不同的一級供應商都希望贏得市場份額。所有的原始設備製造商都希望相互爭奪市場份額。各部分的總和是現實中較大的部分。

So then we make a risk adjustment to this because we know that the SAAR can only be at a certain size next year. So that's one of the elements which I would label, practically speaking, risk adjustments, where we bring down what looks like an overwhelmingly huge backlog.

因此，我們對此進行了風險調整，因為我們知道 SAAR 明年只能達到一定的規模。所以這是我要標記的元素之一，實際上是風險調整，我們可以減少看起來壓倒性的巨大積壓。

Got it. That's super helpful. For my follow-up, I wanted to repeat a question. Somebody else asked it, but I don't think you actually answered it. It was around the noncancelable, nonreturnable orders. We've seen these from other companies, and it turns out, in practice, maybe they're not quite as noncancelable as they appeared. How noncancelable or nonreturnable are your NCNR orders really?

知道了。這非常有幫助。對於我的後續行動，我想重複一個問題。有人問過，但我不認為你真的回答了。它圍繞著不可取消、不可退貨的訂單。我們已經從其他公司看到了這些，事實證明，在實踐中，它們可能並不像看起來那樣不可取消。您的 NCNR 訂單到底有多不可取消或不可退貨？

Well, indeed, sorry, I know that was part of an earlier question. I think I missed speaking to it. Well, it's like with every contract. There is clearly a legal system in place. But in the end, of course, reasonable behavior will prevail. What I can tell you, however, is that so far, every one of them has been fulfilled. I mean there is no -- we don't see any -- in Automotive and Industrial, there is no pushouts. There is no cancellations. People want to have more product. Now how that looks at some time in the future, when maybe macro continues to change more, could be different. But fundamentally, we put that system in place in order to make sure that our customers are serious and think 2 times and 3 times about what level of orders they want to put on us.

好吧，確實，對不起，我知道這是之前問題的一部分。我想我錯過了和它說話。嗯，就像每一份合同一樣。顯然有一個法律制度到位。但最終，當然，合理的行為會佔上風。然而，我可以告訴你的是，到目前為止，它們中的每一個都已經實現了。我的意思是，在汽車和工業領域沒有——我們看不到任何——沒有推出。沒有取消。人們想要更多的產品。現在，在未來某個時候，當宏觀繼續發生更多變化時，情況可能會有所不同。但從根本上說，我們實施該系統是為了確保我們的客戶是認真的，並考慮了 2 次和 3 次他們想要給我們下的訂單級別。

And mind you that in many markets, different products from different customers go into one end product. So we have to make sure that there is a proper allocation between them. Then otherwise, the car company is only suffering in the end. I mean if there is too much orders from one Tier 1 and the other one orders not enough, then it doesn't help the car company. That's another reason why we are really trying to put NCNRs in place in order to hold people to the truth.

請注意，在許多市場中，來自不同客戶的不同產品會成為一種最終產品。所以我們必須確保它們之間有適當的分配。否則，車企最後只能吃苦頭。我的意思是，如果一個 Tier 1 的訂單太多，而另一個訂單不夠，那麼這對汽車公司沒有幫助。這也是我們真正嘗試實施 NCNR 以使人們了解真相的另一個原因。

Let me just add to what Kurt mentioned. What we said this year, our NCNRs were larger than our long-term commitments. Of those NCNRs, we can't service them all. We have started our process for 2023 NCNRs, and they're tracking to similar levels as well, which we won't be able to supply as we go forward.

讓我補充一下庫爾特提到的內容。我們今年所說的，我們的 NCNR 大於我們的長期承諾。在這些 NCNR 中，我們無法為他們提供所有服務。我們已經開始了 2023 年 NCNR 的流程，它們也正在跟踪到類似的水平，隨著我們的前進，我們將無法提供。

Our next question coming from the line of Matt Ramsay with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Matt Ramsay 和 Cowen 的對話。

Bill, I wanted to ask a question about OpEx in sort of the context of the macro environment that we're talking about here. You guys have -- with the revenue growth and the gross margin expansion, I think growing gross profit, I don't know, it will be 75% or something like that from '20 to '22, and that's allowed for a lot of expansion of the operating expense while you're still getting leverage. And I guess the question is with inflationary pressures and wages and all those things, it seems like there's still some upward pressure in the OpEx line.

比爾，我想在我們在這裡討論的宏觀環境的背景下問一個關於運營支出的問題。你們有——隨著收入的增長和毛利率的擴大，我認為毛利潤的增長，我不知道，從 20 年到 22 年會達到 75% 或類似的水平，這是允許的在您仍然獲得槓桿作用的情況下擴大運營費用。而且我想問題在於通貨膨脹壓力和工資以及所有這些，看來運營支出線仍然存在一些上行壓力。

And I just wanted to know what kind of levers you had to control that and what the priorities would be to control that if, in fact, the macro did turn. And would you be committed to sort of holding the operating margin flat? Or is there a case where you're going to need to keep spending despite what might go on in the macro? I guess just puts and takes on OpEx would be helpful.

我只是想知道你必須用什麼樣的槓桿來控制它，如果事實上，宏觀確實發生了轉變，那麼控制它的優先級是什麼。你會致力於保持營業利潤率持平嗎？或者是否存在一種情況，儘管宏觀上可能會發生什麼情況，您仍需要繼續支出？我想只是投入和承擔 OpEx 會有所幫助。

Sure. Thank you for your question. Again, we continue to do very well here as we are operating below the 23% long-term model. Q2, we finished at 21.9%, and that was slightly better than our guide. And I think we just guided 21.7%. And again, that primary increase from an absolute standpoint is really being driven by our new college graduates joining the company and continuing R&D investments supporting our growth ambitions.

當然。謝謝你的問題。同樣，我們在這方面繼續做得很好，因為我們的長期運營模式低於 23%。第二季度，我們完成了 21.9%，這比我們的指南略好。我認為我們只是指導了 21.7%。再一次，從絕對的角度來看，這一主要增長實際上是由我們新加入公司的大學畢業生和支持我們增長雄心的持續研發投資推動的。

Now if there is a downturn, what will we do? We have a plan for that. It's well defined. It's all around protecting our free cash flow. Our plan actions would potentially include reducing variable compensation, reduced discretionary spending, reducing noncritical CapEx. We'll slow down our nonengineering hiring. And also, right, our attrition runs around 10%, 12%. We would obviously not backfill all of those, depending how severe it gets.

現在如果出現低迷，我們會怎麼做？我們有一個計劃。它的定義很好。這一切都是為了保護我們的自由現金流。我們的計劃行動可能包括減少可變薪酬、減少可自由支配支出、減少非關鍵資本支出。我們將放慢我們的非工程招聘。而且，對了，我們的流失率在 10%、12% 左右。我們顯然不會回填所有這些，這取決於它的嚴重程度。

By all means, we will protect our R&D engine of the company, which, I've said in the past as well as Kurt, is the lifeblood of our growth. And then similar with optimizing our costs, you have to remember, the last 2 years, we've been optimizing towards material shipments to prevent customer line downs. We haven't been focused on our mix or optimizing of costs or yields or cycle time. So that's another level that -- a lever that we have in our playbook to maintain our margins in our range that we shared during our Analyst Day.

無論如何，我們將保護我們公司的研發引擎，我過去和庫爾特都說過，這是我們成長的命脈。然後與優化我們的成本類似，您必須記住，過去 2 年，我們一直在優化材料運輸以防止客戶線下降。我們沒有專注於我們的組合或成本、產量或週期時間的優化。所以這是另一個層面——我們在我們的劇本中擁有的一個槓桿，可以將我們的利潤率保持在我們在分析師日分享的範圍內。

Got it. A quick follow-up for Kurt. I was interested in your prepared script. I think you mentioned that the same sort of ratio of your product portfolio still had 52-week lead times as it was last quarter. We get a lot of investor questions about maybe there's shortages of part X, but there's inventory builds of part Y and part Z, and things are out of balance. It doesn't seem like that's the case with NXP's business. I'd be interested if you could comment on that a bit further.

知道了。 Kurt的快速跟進。我對你準備好的劇本很感興趣。我想你提到過你的產品組合中與上個季度相同的比例仍然有 52 週的交貨時間。我們收到很多投資者的問題，可能是 X 部分短缺，但 Y 部分和 Z 部分的庫存增加，而且情況不平衡。恩智浦的業務似乎並非如此。如果您能對此發表進一步評論，我會很感興趣。

Yes, absolutely, Matt. I guess that really has to do with the mix of our end market exposure. So I would actually confirm that in Mobile, we are probably moving away from supply constraints. But those technologies are badly needed in other markets which we are serving, which are heavily underserved, while the demand there continues to go up. So it is, of course, a puzzle where we quickly try to redirect from where demand is softening. And again, that's especially the low-end Android handsets and some of the more consumer-oriented products in China, which is little for us.

是的，絕對是，馬特。我想這確實與我們的終端市場風險混合有關。所以我實際上會確認，在移動領域，我們可能正在擺脫供應限制。但我們服務的其他市場急需這些技術，這些市場服務嚴重不足，而那裡的需求繼續上升。因此，當然，這是一個難題，我們迅速嘗試從需求疲軟的地方重新定向。再說一次，尤其是低端安卓手機和中國一些更面向消費者的產品，這對我們來說很少。

I mean the whole point is this is not that much for us, but that little where we have it, we move it to other areas in Auto and Industrial, where actually demand continues to go up, such that in the bottom line in the end, we unfortunately -- and I really have to put it that way, we are still at a similar lead time pattern as we had indeed last quarter, which is that about 80% of the portfolio sits at 52 weeks plus a lead time. But it is different product.

我的意思是，這對我們來說並不是那麼多，但我們擁有它的地方很少，我們將它轉移到汽車和工業的其他領域，實際需求繼續上升，這樣最終的底線，不幸的是——我真的不得不這樣說，我們仍然處於與上一季度相似的交貨時間模式，即大約 80% 的投資組合位於 52 週加上交貨時間。但它是不同的產品。

So that's why I totally understand and support your question. It is not exactly on the same products because it's moving. But in the mix, it still stays at that level.

所以這就是為什麼我完全理解並支持你的問題。它不完全相同的產品，因為它正在移動。但在混合中，它仍然保持在那個水平。

Olivia, I think we'll move to the last question for the call today, please?

奧利維亞，我想我們將轉到今天電話會議的最後一個問題，好嗎？

Certainly. And our last question coming from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

當然。我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I was hoping you can speak to trends that you're seeing in the China business, particularly around industrial and distribution. I think historically, it had been a fairly volatile part of your business, but clearly, based on your overall Industrial & IoT numbers, you seem to be doing really well. So any sort of puts and takes around -- particularly around the lockdowns, going into it, coming out of it? Any comments would be super helpful.

我希望你能談談你在中國業務中看到的趨勢，特別是在工業和分銷方面。我認為從歷史上看，它一直是您業務中相當不穩定的部分，但顯然，根據您的整體工業和物聯網數據，您似乎做得非常好。所以任何形式的放量和放量——尤其是在封鎖期間，進入它，走出它？任何評論都會非常有幫助。

Yes. So first of all, relative to the lockdowns, I mean we had, indeed, also risk-adjusted our quarter 2 guidance, which have to do much more with supply than demand. That was about epoxy suppliers, lead frame suppliers and others. And as you can see from how we managed to make our actuals work, some of that exactly materialized. I mean, indeed, we saw that. However, we see now since June, pretty significant and impactful stimulus programs by the China government, which are starting to take effect. And that's both into the Industrial as well as into the Automotive market. So there is a slight optimism, notwithstanding the risk of further lockdowns, of course, in China.

是的。因此，首先，相對於封鎖，我的意思是，我們確實也對第二季度的指導進行了風險調整，這對供應的影響要大於對需求的影響。那是關於環氧樹脂供應商、引線框架供應商和其他人的。正如您從我們如何設法使我們的實際工作中看到的那樣，其中一些完全實現了。我的意思是，我們確實看到了。然而，我們現在看到，自 6 月以來，中國政府推出了相當重要和有影響力的刺激計劃，這些計劃開始生效。這既適用於工業市場，也適用於汽車市場。因此，儘管中國當然存在進一步封鎖的風險，但仍有一些樂觀情緒。

But from a government stimulus program perspective, there is optimism both for the Industrial as well as for the Automotive markets in China for Q3 and for the second half of the year. I think I mentioned it briefly in my prepared remarks. Our channel inventory is sitting still only at 1.6, which is very low. And mind you that the Industrial business of NXP, and with that especially in China, is dominated by the distribution channel. So a lot of that is in China. And as you can see, it really hasn't moved up much. I think we had 1.5 the last 2 quarters, 1.6 before. So we are still hovering at that very low level, which is a month below our 2.5 target actually.

但從政府刺激計劃的角度來看，中國第三季度和下半年的工業和汽車市場都存在樂觀情緒。我想我在準備好的評論中簡要提到了它。我們的渠道庫存仍然只有 1.6，非常低。請注意，恩智浦的工業業務，尤其是在中國，由分銷渠道主導。所以很多都是在中國。正如你所看到的，它實際上並沒有太大的提升。我認為我們在最後兩個季度有 1.5，之前是 1.6。所以我們仍然徘徊在那個非常低的水平，實際上比我們的 2.5 目標低一個月。

Yes. That's super helpful. And then as my quick follow-up, a separate topic, but on the currency dynamics. Obviously, you've seen the dollar appreciate significantly relative to other currencies. And I recognize that customers don't swap in and out components given long qualification cycles and whatnot. But as we think about the competitive landscape and microcontrollers over the next couple of years, just given how strong the dollar is today, is that something that we should be cognizant of and worried about as you compete with companies like STM and Renesas? Or is that not really a topic that we should be spending too much time on?

是的。這非常有幫助。然後作為我的快速跟進，一個單獨的主題，但關於貨幣動態。顯然，您已經看到美元相對於其他貨幣顯著升值。而且我認識到，鑑於認證週期長等等，客戶不會換入和換出組件。但是，當我們考慮未來幾年的競爭格局和微控制器時，考慮到今天的美元有多強，在與 STM 和瑞薩等公司競爭時，我們是否應該意識到和擔心這一點？或者這真的不是一個我們應該花太多時間在上面的話題嗎？

Yes, I'll take that one. Thank you for your question. NXP is a global company. We're U.S.-based. We're naturally hedged against the euro. So I'm not really too concerned about it.

是的，我要那個。謝謝你的問題。恩智浦是一家全球性公司。我們是美國的。我們自然而然地對沖歐元。所以我並不太關心它。

All right, so I think that gets us to the end of the call. And let me just highlight once again. We feel we have operated well in the second quarter in a pretty turmoiled environment. We are also very cognizant of the macro crosscurrents, which we also discussed quite a bit in this call. Yes, the outcome is that in the majority side of our revenues, which is the Industrial and Automotive markets, we continue to be sold-out. We think the underlying secular growth trends, especially from content increases both in Industrial and Automotive applications are also providing a pretty safe landing going forward relative to demand.

好的，所以我認為這可以讓我們結束通話。讓我再次強調一下。我們認為在相當動蕩的環境中，我們在第二季度運行良好。我們也非常了解宏觀交叉流，我們在本次電話會議中也討論了很多。是的，結果是在我們收入的大部分方面，即工業和汽車市場，我們繼續售罄。我們認為潛在的長期增長趨勢，尤其是工業和汽車應用中內容的增加，也為未來的需求提供了相當安全的著陸。

The one thing which we are very paranoid and very hardworking on is indeed making sure that our inventories down the chain remain low. We think today they are low. We have evidence of this in the channel, with 1.6 months. And our whole focus day in, day out is to make sure that on the one hand, we organize more supply, but on the other hand, we make sure that there is no excess inventory being built in the market down there.

我們非常偏執和非常努力的一件事確實是確保我們在鏈條下游的庫存保持在低水平。我們認為今天它們很低。我們在頻道中有這方面的證據，時間為 1.6 個月。我們日復一日的重點是確保一方面我們組織更多的供應，但另一方面，我們確保那裡的市場沒有過多的庫存。

With that, I want to thank you all on behalf of NXP for today's call, and see and speak to you all soon. Thank you very much. Thank you.

有了這個，我要代表恩智浦感謝你們今天的電話，很快就會見到你們並與你們交談。非常感謝。謝謝你。

Thank you very much. This ends our call today. Thanks, everyone. Bye now.

非常感謝。我們今天的通話到此結束。感謝大家。回頭見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this ends our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。再會。