恩智浦 (NXPI) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the NXP Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded.

你好。感謝您的支持，歡迎參加恩智浦 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議可能會被錄製。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Palmer, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者，投資者關係高級副總裁 Jeff Palmer。請繼續。

Thank you, Josh, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the NXP Semiconductors Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. With me on the call today is Kurt Sievers, NXP's President and CEO; and Bill Betz, our CFO. The call today is being recorded and will be available for replay from our corporate website.

謝謝你，喬希，大家早上好。歡迎參加恩智浦半導體 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是恩智浦總裁兼首席執行官 Kurt Sievers；還有我們的首席財務官 Bill Betz。今天的通話正在錄音中，可從我們的公司網站重播。

Today's call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, the macroeconomic impact on the specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products and our expectations for the financial results for the fourth quarter of 2022. Please be reminded that NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements. For a full disclosure on forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release.

今天的電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致恩智浦的業績與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於關於 COVID-19 大流行對我們業務的持續影響、對我們經營的特定終端市場的宏觀經濟影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們的預期的陳述對於 2022 年第四季度的財務業績。請注意，恩智浦不承擔公開修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。有關前瞻性陳述的完整披露，請參閱我們的新聞稿。

Additionally, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are driven primarily by discrete events that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance. Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our third quarter 2022 earnings press release, which will be furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K and be available on NXP's website in the Investor Relations section at nxp.com.

此外，我們將參考某些非公認會計原則財務指標，這些指標主要由管理層認為與恩智浦基本核心運營業績不直接相關的離散事件驅動。根據 G 條例，恩智浦在我們的 2022 年第三季度收益新聞稿中提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬，該新聞稿將以 8-K 表形式提交給 SEC，並可在恩智浦網站上查閱在 nxp.com 的投資者關係部分。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Kurt.

現在我想把電話轉給 Kurt。

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today.

謝謝你，傑夫，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

Now let me begin with a review of our quarter 3 performance. Our revenue was $20 million better than the midpoint of our guidance with performance in the Mobile, Automotive and Communication Infrastructure markets, all better than our expectations. For the Consumer-exposed IoT subset of the Industrial & IoT market, we started to experience weaker sell-through in the Channel. And let me remind you that our Consumer IoT exposure is approximately 40% of the Industrial and IoT segment revenue. It is made up of thousands of customers primarily in China and serviced through our distribution partners. Taken together, NXP delivered quarter 3 revenue of $3.45 billion, an increase of 20% year-on-year.

現在讓我先回顧一下我們第三季度的表現。在移動、汽車和通信基礎設施市場的表現，我們的收入比我們指導的中點高出 2000 萬美元，都好於我們的預期。對於工業和物聯網市場中面向消費者的物聯網子集，我們開始在渠道中經歷較弱的銷售。讓我提醒您，我們的消費者物聯網業務約佔工業和物聯網部門收入的 40%。它由主要在中國的數千名客戶組成，並通過我們的分銷合作夥伴提供服務。總的來說，恩智浦第三季度的收入為 34.5 億美元，同比增長 20%。

Our non-GAAP operating margin in quarter 3 was a record 36.9%, 340 basis points better than the year ago period and 80 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance. Our results reflect strong execution with solid profit fall-through on the incrementally higher revenue and better than guided operating leverage.

我們在第三季度的非公認會計原則營業利潤率達到創紀錄的 36.9%，比去年同期高出 340 個基點，比我們的指導中點高出 80 個基點。我們的結果反映了強勁的執行力和穩健的利潤下降，因為收入的增加和優於指導的經營槓桿。

Notwithstanding our results, which surpassed our guidance, we are facing a tricky demand environment. On the one hand, the demand trends from Automotive and Core Industrial customers are very resilient. And we continue to face supply constraints across multiple microcontroller and advanced analog products. And on the other hand, we see weakness in the broad Consumer IoT and in the Android mobile market.

儘管我們的結果超出了我們的指導，但我們面臨著一個棘手的需求環境。一方面，汽車和核心工業客戶的需求趨勢非常有彈性。我們繼續面臨多個微控制器和高級模擬產品的供應限制。另一方面，我們看到了廣泛的消費者物聯網和安卓移動市場的疲軟。

Given that unbalanced dynamic of the demand environment, we are going to pull those levers that are in our control, namely stringent Channel Inventory management and discipline and discretionary operating expense.

鑑於需求環境的不平衡動態，我們將拉動我們控制的那些槓桿，即嚴格的渠道庫存管理和紀律以及可自由支配的運營費用。

In terms of inventory, we have decided to take a Draconian approach to managing our distribution Channel Inventory. Specifically, our quarter 4 guidance contemplates a Channel Inventory at the 1.6 months of supply level, which is in line with quarter 3 and well below our long-term model. We prefer to keep any incremental inventory on our balance sheet, where we have the ability to control and redirect shipments as needed.

在庫存方面，我們決定採取嚴厲的方法來管理我們的分銷渠道庫存。具體來說，我們第 4 季度的指導考慮了 1.6 個月供應水平的渠道庫存，這與第 3 季度一致，遠低於我們的長期模型。我們更願意在資產負債表上保留任何增量庫存，以便我們能夠根據需要控制和重定向發貨。

And in terms of discretionary spending, amongst others, we are slowing the rate of hiring. All in all, we believe these measures are a prudent approach until such time as we see a clearer and more consistent view of the demand environment.

在可自由支配的支出等方面，我們正在放慢招聘速度。總而言之，我們認為這些措施是一種審慎的方法，直到我們對需求環境有更清晰和更一致的看法。

Now let me turn to the specific trends in our focus end markets. In Automotive, revenue in Q1 was -- in Q3 was $1.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year, near the high end of guidance. In Industrial & IoT, revenue was $713 million, up 17% year-on-year, $32 million below our guidance. In Mobile, revenue was $410 million, up 19% year-on-year, $30 million better than our guidance. And lastly, Communication Infrastructure & Other revenue was $518 million, up 14% year-on-year, slightly above our guidance.

現在讓我談談我們關注的終端市場的具體趨勢。在汽車領域，第一季度的收入為——第三季度為 18 億美元，同比增長 24%，接近指引的高端。在工業和物聯網方面，收入為 7.13 億美元，同比增長 17%，低於我們的預期 3200 萬美元。在移動方面，收入為 4.1 億美元，同比增長 19%，比我們的預期高出 3,000 萬美元。最後，通信基礎設施和其他收入為 5.18 億美元，同比增長 14%，略高於我們的預期。

Now let me look at key operating indicators relative to the noted demand dynamics, where we see the following. In terms of quoted product lead times, overall, we dropped to just below 70% of our portfolio with lead times that are greater than 52 weeks. This metric was greater than 80% a quarter ago. While this is in aggregate an improvement from prior periods, we continue to be sold out through '23 in the Automotive and Core Industrial end markets.

現在讓我看看與上述需求動態相關的關鍵運營指標，我們可以看到以下內容。就報價產品的交貨時間而言，總體而言，我們的產品組合的交貨時間超過 52 週，降至略低於 70%。這一指標在一個季度前超過了 80%。雖然這總體上比之前的時期有所改善，但我們在汽車和核心工業終端市場的 23 年繼續售罄。

In terms of our NCNR program, most of our Automotive and Core Industrial customers continue to demand assured supply for 2023. Our '23 NCNR order book continues to surpass our '23 supply capability as well as the level of NCNR orders which have been requested for 2022.

就我們的 NCNR 計劃而言，我們的大多數汽車和核心工業客戶繼續要求 2023 年有保證的供應。我們的 '23 NCNR 訂單繼續超過我們的 '23 供應能力以及已要求的 NCNR 訂單水平2022 年。

And in terms of inventory, as noted previously, our Q4 guidance contemplates distribution channel at 1.6 months, well below our long-term target of 2.5 months. With respect to on-hand inventory at NXP, our DIO has increased 5 days sequentially to 99 days, and it will increase further. Given the application-specific nature of our product portfolio, we are comfortable with this direction.

而在庫存方面，如前所述，我們的第四季度指引預計分銷渠道為 1.6 個月，遠低於我們 2.5 個月的長期目標。在 NXP 的現有庫存方面，我們的 DIO 已連續增加 5 天至 99 天，並且還會進一步增加。鑑於我們產品組合的特定應用性質，我們對這個方向感到滿意。

Now let me turn to our expectations for quarter 4. We are guiding revenue at $3.3 billion, up about 9% versus the fourth quarter of 2021, within a range of up 5% to up 12% year-on-year. And from a sequential perspective, this represents a decline of about 4%, at the midpoint versus the prior quarter.

現在讓我談談我們對第四季度的預期。我們的指導收入為 33 億美元，與 2021 年第四季度相比增長約 9%，同比增長 5% 至 12%。從連續的角度來看，這意味著與上一季度相比下降了約 4%。

At the midpoint, we anticipate the following trends in our business. Automotive is expected to be up in the high teens on a percent basis versus quarter 4 '21 and flattish versus quarter 3 '22. Industrial and IoT is expected to be down in the low double-digit range on a percentage basis year-on-year and down in the high teens range versus quarter 3 '22.

在中點，我們預計我們的業務將出現以下趨勢。與 21 年第 4 季度相比，汽車預計將在 10 % 的基礎上上升，與 22 年第 3 季度相比持平。與 22 年第 3 季度相比，工業和物聯網預計將在百分比基礎上同比下降到兩位數的低位範圍內，並在青少年範圍內下降。

Mobile is expected to be up in the low single-digit range year-on-year and down in the upper single-digit range versus quarter 3 '22. And finally, Communication Infrastructure & Other is expected to be up in the low teens range versus the same period a year ago and flattish on a sequential basis.

與 22 年第 3 季度相比，移動設備預計將同比增長在低個位數範圍內，並在高個位數範圍內下降。最後，與一年前同期相比，通信基礎設施和其他預計將在青少年範圍內上漲，並且環比持平。

Now in summary, there is a real dichotomy in the various end markets that we serve. The potential for some demand destruction in the consumer end markets that we noted as a concern last quarter has materialized. While we could ship more into the Channel, we are taking a proactive stance to limit Channel Inventory buildup. And conversely, we are seeing very resilient customer demand in the Automotive and Core Industrial segments, where demand continues to outpace supply, which hinders us from shipping to the true end demand. So overall, we remain cautious in the near term due to the uncertainties in the macro environment.

現在總而言之，我們服務的各個終端市場存在真正的二分法。我們在上個季度注意到的一個擔憂的消費終端市場的一些需求破壞的可能性已經成為現實。雖然我們可以向渠道運送更多產品，但我們正在採取積極主動的態度來限制渠道庫存的積累。相反，我們看到汽車和核心工業領域的客戶需求非常有彈性，需求繼續超過供應，這阻礙了我們向真正的最終需求發貨。因此，總體而言，由於宏觀環境的不確定性，我們在短期內保持謹慎。

And with that, now I would like to pass the call over to you, Bill, for a review of our financial performance.

有了這個，現在我想把電話轉給你，比爾，審查我們的財務業績。

Thank you, Kurt, and good morning to everyone on today's call.

謝謝你，庫爾特，今天電話會議上的每個人早上好。

As Kurt has already covered the drivers of the revenue during Q3 and provided our revenue outlook for Q4, I will move to the financial highlights. Overall, our Q3 financial performance was very good. Revenue was $20 million above the midpoint of our guidance range. And both non-GAAP gross profit and non-GAAP operating profit were above the midpoint of our guidance.

由於庫爾特已經涵蓋了第三季度收入的驅動因素並提供了我們對第四季度的收入前景，我將轉向財務亮點。總體而言，我們第三季度的財務表現非常好。收入比我們指導範圍的中點高出 2000 萬美元。非美國通用會計準則毛利和非美國通用會計準則營業利潤均高於我們指引的中點。

Now moving to the details of Q3. Total revenue was $3.45 billion, up 20% year-on-year, notwithstanding weakness in the consumer-centric portion of the Industrial and IoT segment. We generated $1.99 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 58%, up 150 basis points year-on-year and both above the midpoint of guidance range as a result of higher factory utilization and higher sales volume.

現在轉到第三季度的細節。儘管工業和物聯網領域以消費者為中心的部分錶現疲軟，但總收入為 34.5 億美元，同比增長 20%。我們創造了 19.9 億美元的非美國通用會計準則毛利潤，報告非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 58%，同比增長 150 個基點，均高於指導範圍的中點，這是由於工廠利用率和銷量增加所致.

Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $730 million or 21.2%, up $73 million year-on-year and up $6 million from Q2, better than our guidance range and below our long-term model. From a total operating profit perspective, non-GAAP operating profit was $1.27 billion, and non-GAAP operating margin was 36.9%, up 340 basis points year-on-year, and both above the midpoint of the guidance range.

非美國通用會計準則運營費用總額為 7.3 億美元或 21.2%，同比增長 7300 萬美元，比第二季度增長 600 萬美元，好於我們的指導範圍，低於我們的長期模型。從營業利潤總額來看，非美國通用會計準則營業利潤為12.7億美元，非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為36.9%，同比上升340個基點，均高於指導區間中點。

Non-GAAP interest expense was $91 million with cash taxes for ongoing operations of $160 million or 13.6% effective cash tax rate. And noncontrolling interest was about $12 million. Stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP earnings, was $89 million.

非 GAAP 利息支出為 9100 萬美元，持續運營的現金稅為 1.6 億美元或 13.6% 的有效現金稅率。非控制性權益約為 1200 萬美元。不包括在我們的非公認會計原則收益中的基於股票的薪酬為 8900 萬美元。

Now I would like to turn to the changes in our cash and debt. Our total debt at the end of Q3 was $11.16 billion, flat sequentially. Our ending cash position was $3.76 billion, up $214 million sequentially thanks to improved operating performance. The resulting net debt was $7.40 billion. And we exited the quarter with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $5.3 billion. Our ratio of net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at the end of Q3 was 1.4x, and our 12-month adjusted EBITDA interest coverage was 13.8x.

現在我想談談我們的現金和債務的變化。我們在第三季度末的總債務為 111.6 億美元，與上一季度持平。由於經營業績的改善，我們的期末現金頭寸為 37.6 億美元，比上一季度增加了 2.14 億美元。由此產生的淨債務為 74 億美元。我們以 53 億美元的 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 結束本季度。截至第三季度末，我們的淨債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.4 倍，我們 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 利息覆蓋率為 13.8 倍。

Turning to working capital metrics. Days of inventory was 99 days, an increase of 5 days sequentially as we continue to experience incrementally improved supply trends. The increase in on-hand inventory was evenly split between raw materials and work in process to support revenue growth in subsequent periods and an increase in finished goods due to the noted weakness in the Android mobile market and the consumer-centric portion of Industrial & IoT.

轉向營運資金指標。庫存天數為 99 天，環比增加 5 天，因為我們繼續體驗到供應趨勢逐步改善。由於 Android 移動市場的顯著疲軟以及以消費者為中心的工業和物聯網部分，現有庫存的增加平均分配在原材料和在製品之間，以支持後續期間的收入增長和製成品的增加.

As Kurt mentioned, we continue to tightly manage our Channel Inventory. Inventory in the Channel was 1.6 months and continues to be well below our long-term target. Days receivable were 27 days, flat sequentially. And days payable were 96, an increase of 2 days versus the prior quarter. Taken together, our cash conversion cycle was 30 days. Our working capital management, balance sheet and Channel metrics continue to be very strong and well managed.

正如 Kurt 所說，我們將繼續嚴格管理我們的渠道庫存。渠道庫存為 1.6 個月，繼續遠低於我們的長期目標。應收天數為 27 天，環比持平。應付天數為 96 天，比上一季度增加 2 天。加在一起，我們的現金轉換週期是 30 天。我們的營運資金管理、資產負債表和渠道指標繼續非常強大且管理良好。

Cash flow from operations was $1.14 billion, and net CapEx was $281 million or 8.2% of revenue, resulting in a non-GAAP free cash flow of $863 million or 25% of revenue. During Q3, we paid $223 million in cash dividends, and we repurchased $400 million of NXP shares. In addition, since the beginning of Q4 through October 28, we purchased an additional $260 million of shares under the established 10b5-1 program.

運營現金流為 11.4 億美元，淨資本支出為 2.81 億美元，佔收入的 8.2%，非 GAAP 自由現金流為 8.63 億美元，佔收入的 25%。在第三季度，我們支付了 2.23 億美元的現金股息，並回購了 4 億美元的恩智浦股票。此外，從第四季度開始到 10 月 28 日，我們根據既定的 10b5-1 計劃又購買了 2.6 億美元的股票。

On a trailing 12-month basis through the end of Q3, we have returned 98% of our non-GAAP free cash flow back to the owners of the company, consistent with our capital allocation strategy. The cash flow generation of the business continues to be excellent.

在截至第三季度末的過去 12 個月的基礎上，我們已將 98% 的非公認會計原則自由現金流返還給公司所有者，這與我們的資本分配策略一致。業務產生的現金流量仍然非常出色。

Now turning to our expectations for Q4. As Kurt mentioned, we anticipate revenue to be about $3.3 billion, plus or minus about $100 million. At the midpoint, this is up 9% year-on-year and down 4% sequentially. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be about 57.8%, plus or minus 50 basis points. Operating expenses are expected to be around $720 million, plus or minus about $10 million, which is down about 1% sequentially driven by lower incentive compensation and discretionary spending.

現在轉向我們對第四季度的預期。正如庫爾特所說，我們預計收入約為 33 億美元，上下浮動約 1 億美元。在中點，同比增長 9%，環比下降 4%。我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率約為 57.8%，上下浮動 50 個基點。運營費用預計約為 7.2 億美元，上下浮動約 1000 萬美元，受激勵薪酬和可自由支配支出減少的推動，環比下降約 1%。

Taken together, we see non-GAAP operating margin to be 36% at the midpoint. We estimate non-GAAP financial expense to be about $81 million driven by higher interest income and we anticipate cash tax related to ongoing operations to be about $140 million or about a 13% effective cash tax rate, which is below our communicated model, leading to a full year effective tax rate of 13%.

綜合來看，我們認為非 GAAP 營業利潤率在中點為 36%。我們估計非 GAAP 財務費用約為 8100 萬美元，主要是由於利息收入增加，我們預計與持續運營相關的現金稅約為 1.4 億美元或約 13% 的有效現金稅率，低於我們的溝通模型，導致全年有效稅率為 13%。

Noncontrolling interest should be about $12 million. And for Q4, we suggest for modeling purposes, you use an average share count of 262 million shares. For CapEx, we suggest you use 8%, bringing total year CapEx to 8% versus our prior expectations of 10% due to delays in equipment deliveries.

非控制性權益應約為 1200 萬美元。對於第四季度，出於建模目的，我們建議您使用 2.62 億股的平均股數。對於資本支出，我們建議您使用 8%，使全年資本支出達到 8%，而我們之前由於設備交付延遲而預期為 10%。

Finally, I have an update to our reported financials. Beginning with our guidance for Q1 2023, we will begin to apply an estimated annual tax rate to our GAAP and, thus, our non-GAAP profit before tax. This change will enable NXP to report a non-GAAP earnings per share on a go-forward basis, consistent with SEC guidelines.

最後，我對我們報告的財務狀況進行了更新。從我們對 2023 年第一季度的指導開始，我們將開始對我們的 GAAP 以及我們的非 GAAP 稅前利潤應用估計的年稅率。這一變化將使恩智浦能夠按照美國證券交易委員會的指導方針，在未來的基礎上報告非公認會計原則的每股收益。

Given current tax legislation, we believe our new estimated tax rate will be consistent with our long-term cash tax rate of 18%, as provided at our Analyst Day in November of 2021.

鑑於當前的稅收立法，我們相信我們的新估計稅率將與我們在 2021 年 11 月分析師日提供的 18% 的長期現金稅率一致。

Overall, despite the uncertain macroeconomic conditions which are impacting some of our more consumer-oriented markets, as Kurt mentioned, we will navigate what is in our control, such as Channel Inventory and discretionary spending. Furthermore, over the foreseeable future, we will continue to operate within our long-term financial model.

總體而言，儘管不確定的宏觀經濟條件正在影響我們一些更以消費者為導向的市場，正如 Kurt 所提到的，但我們將在我們控制的範圍內進行導航，例如渠道庫存和可自由支配的支出。此外，在可預見的未來，我們將繼續在我們的長期財務模式下運營。

Thank you, and we now can turn the call back over to the operator for questions.

謝謝，我們現在可以將電話轉回給接線員提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

Kurt, I wanted to ask about the inventory side of the equation, both on the Channel and on your balance sheet. On the Channel side of things, you guys are, like you said, well below target about 1.6 months, well below where you were at similar points where people were worried about us being at a peak cycle. So I guess the question is, could you ship more into the Channel if you wanted to? And what's led to the philosophical shift to significantly lessen the Channel and more on your balance sheet as in prior cycles, it seems to be the opposite prioritization?

庫爾特，我想問一下等式的庫存方面，無論是在渠道上還是在您的資產負債表上。在渠道方面，正如你所說，你們遠低於目標約 1.6 個月，遠低於人們擔心我們處於高峰週期的類似點。所以我想問題是，如果你願意，你能把更多的東西送到頻道嗎？是什麼導致了哲學上的轉變，顯著減少了您的資產負債表上的渠道和更多，就像在之前的周期中一樣，這似乎是相反的優先順序？

Yes. Thanks, Ross. Yes, the answer is a blunt yes. We could have shipped more into the Channel against open orders actually in this fourth quarter, and that especially into the Consumer IoT part of our segments. But as I mentioned, given the whole macroeconomic uncertainty, we just feel it is a much more prudent approach to actually limit this Channel Inventory at this very low level of 1.6 months and mind you that the delta to 2.5 months in terms of revenue would be about $500 million. And that's the level of open orders which we would easily have, which we could serve.

是的。謝謝，羅斯。是的，答案是直截了當的。實際上，在第四季度，我們本可以針對未結訂單向渠道運送更多貨物，尤其是進入我們細分市場的消費者物聯網部分。但正如我所提到的，鑑於整個宏觀經濟的不確定性，我們只是覺得將這個渠道庫存實際限制在這個非常低的 1.6 個月水平是一種更為謹慎的方法，並且請注意，就收入而言，2.5 個月的增量將是約5億美元。這就是我們可以輕鬆擁有的未結訂單水平，我們可以提供服務。

But we think it's more prudent because it's unclear how the macro is going to further develop and how the demand in that part of the market is going to develop. So we feel it's a better idea to keep what we have already in the pipeline to keep in-house and on the balance sheet, also for eventually being in a position to redirect it to other customers.

但我們認為更為謹慎，因為目前尚不清楚宏觀將如何進一步發展，以及該部分市場的需求將如何發展。因此，我們認為保留我們已經在管道中的內容以保留在內部和資產負債表上是一個更好的主意，也可以最終將其重定向給其他客戶。

Now that's the one side of the house. I just have to also remind you that at the same time, Ross, we have this real situation that in the auto and core industrial side of the house, we have the opposite situation. We do not have enough supply, so we continue to be sold out. And also there, we could actually -- if only we have the supply, we could make more revenue in quarter 4. We have a lot of open orders which are very real. We checked all of them but can't really serve them.

現在這是房子的一側。我還必須提醒你，與此同時，羅斯，我們的實際情況是，在汽車和核心工業方面，我們的情況正好相反。我們沒有足夠的供應，所以我們繼續售罄。而且，我們實際上可以 - 如果我們有供應，我們可以在第四季度獲得更多收入。我們有很多非常真實的未結訂單。我們檢查了所有這些，但不能真正為它們服務。

But again, back to your initial question, yes, we could sell more, but we found it is much more wise to stick to this very low Channel Inventory of 1.6 months at this time. It's not a long-term target, though, but at this particular period in the cycle, we feel it's the best thing we should do.

但是，再次回到您最初的問題，是的，我們可以銷售更多，但我們發現此時堅持這個非常低的 1.6 個月的渠道庫存更為明智。不過，這不是一個長期目標，但在周期的這個特定時期，我們認為這是我們應該做的最好的事情。

I guess as my follow-up, one for Bill on the gross margin side of things. I'm impressed that the gross margin is staying flat, maybe surprised would be the word more than impressed, given that the revenues are dropping 4% or so. Your predecessor kind of had a very rough rule of thumb that a 5% drop in revenue was a 1% drop in gross margin. So how are you able to keep that flat? And what's the sustainability of that ability to keep the gross margin at this general level?

我想作為我的後續行動，一個關於毛利率方面的比爾。毛利率保持不變給我留下了深刻的印象，鑑於收入下降了 4% 左右，這個詞可能會讓我感到驚訝。你的前任有一個非常粗略的經驗法則，即收入下降 5% 就是毛利率下降 1%。那麼你怎麼能保持平坦呢？這種將毛利率保持在這個總體水平的能力的可持續性是什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Ross, for your question. And you're right, we did slightly better than our guidance driven by the higher revenues and fall-through. One area I think we need to understand a little bit better is that our internal utilizations remain in the high 90s as we are still well constrained specifically in our auto. And if you think about internally, more than 2/3 of our capacity is just pinpointed to our IP proprietary mixed-signal, auto-centric capacity internally. And we are constrained. As you heard Kurt mention, we are sold out, and we expect this to be well utilized all throughout 2023.

是的。謝謝，羅斯，你的問題。你是對的，在收入增加和失敗的推動下，我們的表現略好於我們的指導。我認為我們需要更好地理解的一個領域是，我們的內部利用率仍然保持在 90 年代的高位，因為我們在汽車方面仍然受到很大限制。如果您從內部考慮，我們超過 2/3 的容量只是針對我們內部的 IP 專有混合信號、以自動為中心的容量。我們受到限制。正如您聽到 Kurt 提到的，我們已經售罄，我們預計這將在 2023 年全年得到很好的利用。

Second, as mentioned on previous calls, you're right, we mentioned we'd stay in a tight range, delivering towards our high-end model. And I think we've demonstrated that, and it's incorporated in our Q4 guide. And more longer term, what gets us to 58% is really those new product introductions which are further out in the journey, I would say.

其次，正如之前的電話會議所提到的，你是對的，我們提到我們將保持在一個狹窄的範圍內，向我們的高端模型提供服務。我認為我們已經證明了這一點，並將其納入我們的第四季度指南。從長遠來看，讓我們達到 58% 的真正原因是那些在旅程中走得更遠的新產品推出，我想說。

Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess the follow-on on Ross's question, I guess, can you comment on the ability at all to repurpose wafers capacity? My sense is internal versus external, the answer is no. And then as part of that, before coming into the recovery, you had a gross margin construct, I think, of every 5% change in top line, 100 bps growth in gross margins. Now that you see a clear mix shift here in terms of auto, core industrial holding strong, yet Consumer weaker, is there kind of a thought process or model we should be thinking about on the gross margin side as we push forward into some sort of further correction on the Consumer side?

我猜是羅斯問題的後續，我猜，你能評論一下重新利用晶圓產能的能力嗎？我的感覺是內在與外在，答案是否定的。然後作為其中的一部分，在進入復甦之前，你有一個毛利率結構，我認為，頂線每變化 5%，毛利率增長 100 個基點。既然您看到汽車方面的明顯混合轉變，核心工業持有強勁，但消費者疲軟，在我們推進某種形式時，是否應該在毛利率方面考慮一種思維過程或模型消費者方面的進一步修正？

Let me first go at the repurposing or the potential for repurposing of capacity. So first of all, yes, I can confirm directionally that indeed repurposing between internal and external is very limited. I mean that's really how we've built our supply strategy. When you then think about within internal and within external repurposing between the different segments which we serve, and that's now specifically between the more Consumer-oriented versus the more Auto or Core Industrial-oriented markets, to a limited level, it is possible.

讓我先談談產能的再利用或再利用的潛力。所以首先，是的，我可以有方向地確認，內部和外部之間的再利用確實非常有限。我的意思是這就是我們制定供應戰略的方式。然後，當您考慮在我們服務的不同細分市場之間進行內部和外部再利用時，特別是在更以消費者為導向的市場與更以汽車或核心工業為導向的市場之間，在有限的水平上，這是可能的。

It is typically not at all possible on a finished product level, so once the product is completely manufactured and sometimes programmed, we have hardly any products which are swappable. However, if you still speak about buy back, inventory, for example, we do have the opportunity with several process nodes to actually swap between those markets but not with all of them.

在成品級別上通常根本不可能，因此一旦產品完全製造並有時編程，我們幾乎沒有任何可互換的產品。但是，如果您仍然談論回購、庫存，例如，我們確實有機會使用多個流程節點在這些市場之間進行實際交換，但不是全部。

I'll give you one example which is quite sizable for us. We have a lot of product going in 55 nanometers with embedded nonvolatile memory. That, for example, is very, very purely Automotive, which means we are sold out, we are short in that technology, but that same technology is also not used for any of the consumer applications. So the demand drop in consumer doesn't really help us there. However, there is other technologies, like 90 nanometers or 180 nanometers, where we can do this if the product is not yet a finished goods.

我給你舉一個對我們來說相當大的例子。我們有很多帶有嵌入式非易失性存儲器的 55 納米產品。例如，那是非常非常純粹的汽車，這意味著我們已經售罄，我們缺乏這項技術，但同樣的技術也沒有用於任何消費應用。因此，消費者的需求下降並沒有真正幫助我們。但是，如果產品還不是成品，還有其他技術，例如 90 納米或 180 納米，我們可以這樣做。

So it's a bit of an in between, but we have some liberty here. And that is also the reason why, amongst others, for example, in parts of our Comm Infra market in Q4, we started to see acceleration in our revenues because we actually could swap some of our existing capacity into those markets like the e-government markets or RFID markets, which were super constrained over the past 8 quarters.

所以這有點介於兩者之間，但我們在這裡有一些自由。這也是為什麼，例如，在第四季度我們的部分通信基礎設施市場，我們開始看到我們的收入加速增長，因為我們實際上可以將我們現有的一些產能轉移到電子政務等市場市場或 RFID 市場，在過去 8 個季度中受到超級限制。

On the margin side, I'd say there is quite some variation of margin within each of the segments. So you cannot easily draw conclusions between the 4 revenue segments, what their mix is and what it means to the end margin of the company. It is more sophisticated, to be fair. Bill, I'm not sure if you want to go a little bit deeper. But in the end, you cannot draw conclusions on the level of the total segment.

在邊距方面，我想說每個細分市場的邊距變化很大。因此，您不能輕易地在 4 個收入部分之間得出結論，它們的組合是什麼以及它對公司的最終利潤率意味著什麼。公平地說，它更複雜。比爾，我不確定你是否想更深入一點。但最終，您無法在總細分的水平上得出結論。

No, nothing else there.

不，沒有別的了。

C.J., did you have a follow-up?

C.J.，你有後續嗎？

Yes, just a quick follow-up. The China IoT piece, I would have thought that, that would have shown weakness earlier. So I guess, are there particular kind of sub end markets that have proven to be more resilient, at least until today, that's kind of enabled that to hold up? Or kind of can you give us a little more color on how to think about the key drivers within that bucket?

是的，只是快速跟進。中國物聯網這塊，我本來以為，那會更早地表現出弱點。所以我想，是否有特定類型的子終端市場被證明更具彈性，至少直到今天，這使得它能夠保持下去？或者你能給我們更多一點關於如何思考這個桶中的關鍵驅動因素的顏色嗎？

Yes. It really started in, I'd say, August and then going into October to quite significantly drop. But again, of course, our approach to stick to the 1.6 level of month of Channel Inventory gives this a different color, CJ. I mean, in former days, honestly, we would just have kept shipping. So it would have felt like, oh, finally, we get the Channel Inventory up. Now it's very much our choice that we said we don't want to do this, and that's why it sees quite a harsh decline. But again, as I explained earlier, we think that's the better way to do it.

是的。我想說，它真的開始於 8 月，然後到 10 月大幅下降。但是，當然，我們堅持 1.6 月份渠道庫存水平的方法再次賦予它不同的顏色，CJ。我的意思是，在過去，老實說，我們只會繼續發貨。所以感覺就像，哦，終於，我們獲得了頻道庫存。現在，我們說我們不想這樣做，這在很大程度上是我們的選擇，這就是為什麼它會出現相當嚴重的下降。但是，正如我之前解釋的那樣，我們認為這是更好的方法。

But again, it started in August time frame. I would say it's the Consumer IoT market globally which is softening. It's just such that we have a relatively sizable exposure to China. But it's not that the non-Chinese Consumer IoT customers would be still very resilient. I think this is globally weakening, but it hits us harder from a China perspective. And this is also where we have a very large Channel exposure, which is why this Channel approach which I explained earlier, I think, makes a significant difference in how we want to deal with it.

但同樣，它始於 8 月的時間框架。我想說的是全球消費物聯網市場正在走軟。正是這樣，我們對中國有相當大的影響。但這並不是說非中國消費者物聯網客戶仍然很有彈性。我認為這在全球範圍內正在減弱，但從中國的角度來看，它對我們的打擊更大。這也是我們擁有非常大的 Channel 曝光率的地方，這就是為什麼我之前解釋過的 Channel 方法對我們處理它的方式產生了重大影響。

Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

Kurt, for my first one, I'm curious to get your perspective on just the supply-demand equation in the automotive industry at your OEM and Tier 1 customers. Do you think they're still undersupplied or oversupplied or just kind of rightly supplied? And just what are the hotspots of over or undersupply right now? And just how is your visibility of growth into the first half of next year? I think you've added Q4 flattish, which I assume is more a supply variable. But just what's your perspective into the supply-demand balance at your auto customers right now?

Kurt，對於我的第一個問題，我很想了解您對汽車行業 OEM 和一級客戶的供需方程的看法。你認為他們仍然供不應求或供過於求，還是只是供應正確？現在供應過剩或不足的熱點是什麼？您對明年上半年增長的看法如何？我認為你已經增加了第四季度的持平，我認為這更像是一個供應變量。但是，您現在對汽車客戶的供需平衡有何看法？

Yes. Thanks, Vivek. First of all, let me just indeed unfortunately confirm that the sequential flat in auto into Q4 is purely a function of supply. I wish it was different, but it is a straight function of supply. Now it still has a nice year-on-year growth, by the way, but the sequential is a supply limitation.

是的。謝謝，維維克。首先，讓我確實不幸地證實，第四季度汽車的連續持平純粹是供應的函數。我希望它有所不同，但它是供應的直接功能。順便說一句，現在它仍然有不錯的同比增長，但順序是供應限制。

In general, many microcontrollers, if not all, in our portfolio and the large part of the analog products which we have continued to be significantly supply constrained in Automotive. And that is after a very careful and very thorough analysis of the demand in this whole web from the OEMs through to Tier 1.

一般來說，我們產品組合中的許多微控制器（如果不是全部的話）以及我們在汽車領域繼續受到嚴重供應限制的大部分模擬產品。這是在對從 OEM 到 Tier 1 的整個網絡的需求進行非常仔細和徹底的分析之後。

So I think we have more transparent and more detailed discussions than ever before in trying to understand that. And it really shows also, given the NCNR order levels which we are getting in Automotive for all of next year, that those constraints will continue to be in place through a large part of next year, depending, of course, on how the supply possibly further improves above the visibility we have today. But with our current supply visibility, we will continue to be sold out in the automotive market through next year.

因此，我認為我們進行了比以往任何時候都更透明、更詳細的討論來試圖理解這一點。它也確實表明，考慮到我們明年全年在汽車領域獲得的 NCNR 訂單水平，這些限制將在明年的大部分時間裡繼續存在，當然，這取決於供應可能如何進一步提高了我們今天的能見度。但以我們目前的供應可見性，到明年我們將繼續在汽車市場上售罄。

If you would ask me how much was the gap to true demand, probably it is in the order of -- that we have a supply coverage of 85% next year in Automotive and Core Industrial versus true demand.

如果你問我與真實需求的差距有多大，可能是——我們明年在汽車和核心工業領域的供應覆蓋率與真實需求相比為 85%。

Now there is still this golden screw problem. So I don't want to take this off the table. So sometimes one component is indeed missing from us or from another peer in the market, and then it takes a few weeks until stuff is being flushed through. But that doesn't take away that there is overall shortage in the key microcontrollers and analog products.

現在還有這個金螺絲問題。所以我不想把這個從桌面上拿下來。因此，有時我們或市場上的另一個同行確實缺少一個組件，然後需要幾週時間才能將東西沖走。但這並不能消除關鍵微控制器和模擬產品的整體短缺。

So my follow-up, you continue to build inventory on your balance sheet. And when I couple that with the fact that you mentioned you're sold out in Automotive and Core Industrial, that's almost 2/3 of your business. So is it fair to assume that you're planning for next year -- I know you're not giving '23 guidance, but are you planning for next year sales to be at least flattish year-on-year with Auto and Core Industrial growth offsetting any weakness on the consumer side? Or is that stretching right too much the conclusion from combining the fact that you still continue to build inventory and your Auto and Core Industrial demand is sold out for next year?

所以我的後續行動，你繼續在資產負債表上建立庫存。當我將這一點與您提到的汽車和核心工業業務已售罄的事實結合起來時，這幾乎是您業務的 2/3。那麼假設您計劃明年是否公平 - 我知道您沒有給出 23 年的指導，但您是否計劃明年的銷售額至少與 Auto 和 Core Industrial 同比持平增長抵消了消費者方面的任何弱點？還是將您仍在繼續建立庫存以及您的汽車和核心工業需求在明年售罄的事實結合起來得出的結論是否過於正確？

Vivek, this is Bill. Let me take this one. First off, we're not guiding 2023, but let me go into the internal inventory and try to summarize for everyone. Yes, we've increased 5 days, which is about 50% raw material and work in process. And the remainder was in finished goods from a quarter-over-quarter perspective.

維維克，這是比爾。讓我拿這個。首先，我們不是在指導2023，而是讓我進入內部盤點並嘗試為大家總結一下。是的，我們增加了 5 天，這大約是 50% 的原材料和在製品。從季度環比的角度來看，其餘的是製成品。

Clearly, as Kurt mentioned, a portion of these finished goods was driven primarily by NXP preventing inventory buildup in the Channel as we reroute this material to other customers in need or some of it's fungible and some of it is not. Areas where we have higher Consumer or Mobile inventory levels, we hold the wafers in die bank, as Kurt mentioned, before completing assembly and test in our back-end facilities.

顯然，正如 Kurt 所提到的，這些成品的一部分主要是由 NXP 推動的，因為我們將這些材料重新路由給其他需要的客戶，或者其中一些是可替代的，而有些不是。正如 Kurt 所說，在我們擁有較高消費者或移動庫存水平的區域，我們將晶圓存放在模具庫中，然後在我們的後端設施中完成組裝和測試。

At the same time, we remain highly constrained in the wafer areas of 28, 40, 55, 65 and 90 in our Auto and Core Industrial segments. And again, as we mentioned in both our opening remarks, it's better to keep control of your own inventory and putting it into the Channel which will just create future issues if demand falls. And again, majority of what we build is very application specific and long-lived, which gives us confidence to hold and be ready to service future demand.

與此同時，我們在汽車和核心工業領域的 28、40、55、65 和 90 晶圓領域仍然受到高度限制。同樣，正如我們在開場白中提到的那樣，最好控制自己的庫存並將其放入渠道中，如果需求下降，這只會產生未來的問題。同樣，我們構建的大部分內容都是針對特定應用程序且長期存在的，這使我們有信心保持並準備好滿足未來的需求。

And -- thanks, Bill. Let me maybe just add that one view on next year when it comes to Automotive since you were asking earlier. We see no reason why the strong trend of content increase following, amongst others, electrification and ADAS would break. I think every quarter, we look at the ratio of electric cars of the total SAAR is higher than the quarter before. For this year, we see now 27% of the total SAAR being xEVs and for next year, it's forecasted to be 34%. And you know what that means for the semiconductor content in a car.

還有——謝謝，比爾。既然你之前問過，讓我也許只是在明年添加一個關於汽車的觀點。我們認為，隨著電氣化和 ADAS 等因素的出現，內容增長的強勁趨勢沒有理由被打破。我認為每個季度，我們看電動汽車在總 SAAR 中的比例都高於前一季度。今年，我們現在看到 27% 的 SAAR 是 xEV，明年預計將達到 34%。你知道這對汽車中的半導體成分意味著什麼。

So from that perspective, I think there is, from a demand view, certainly good reason to believe that it continues to be a very strong and very resilient market while, at the same time, the extended supply chain in our view continues to be underfilled. It is still actually dysfunctional because it is still too low level. So those 2 perspectives should maybe add to a pretty healthy view from an automotive demand perspective on 2023.

所以從這個角度來看，我認為，從需求的角度來看，當然有充分的理由相信它仍然是一個非常強大和非常有彈性的市場，同時，我們認為擴展的供應鏈繼續不足.它實際上仍然功能失調，因為它仍然太低。因此，從 2023 年汽車需求的角度來看，這兩個觀點可能會增加一個相當健康的觀點。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

The first one, I get the issues in Consumer and Mobile. Those seem to be in the numbers now at this point. But Auto and Industrial look really resilient. You're just sold out. You've got these NCNRs. I guess why do you sound so worried given that long-term support in those core markets and presumably given how sustainable it is. Are you seeing any signs at all of weakness, even small signs, any tiny upticks in cancellations or anything like that in those core markets?

第一個，我得到消費者和移動方面的問題。在這一點上，這些似乎是現在的數字。但汽車和工業看起來真的很有彈性。你剛剛賣光了。你有這些 NCNR。我想，鑑於這些核心市場的長期支持以及大概的可持續性，你為什麼聽起來如此擔心。您是否在這些核心市場看到任何疲軟跡象，甚至是小跡象，取消訂單的微小上升或類似情況？

Stacy, we have no cancellations or push-outs in Auto or Core Industrial. At the same time, I don't have a crystal ball, and I don't want to take a position here to be the economic federalist for the macro for next year. But so this -- also this guidance here is based on the orders and the supply capability which we have at hand for quarter 4. But I can absolutely confirm no pushouts, no cancellations in Core Industrial and Auto.

史黛西，我們在汽車或核心工業領域沒有取消或推出。同時，我沒有水晶球，我不想在這裡擔任明年宏觀經濟的聯邦主義者。但是，這裡的指導也是基於我們手頭第四季度的訂單和供應能力。但我絕對可以確認核心工業和汽車沒有推出，沒有取消。

And the one indicator which gives maybe a somewhat better feel on the longer term is the level of inventory sitting in the extended supply chains in those two markets. And from anything we can check and see there, that level continues to be super low. And that's why we continue to believe it should stay very resilient.

從長遠來看，可能給人更好感覺的一個指標是這兩個市場擴展供應鏈中的庫存水平。從我們可以檢查和看到的任何東西來看，這個水平仍然非常低。這就是為什麼我們繼續相信它應該保持非常有彈性。

Got it. For my follow-up question, I wanted to, again, I guess, dig into the Channel Inventories. So a lot of the consumer stuff which is weak goes to the Channel. It sounds like you're not shipping that into the Channel, but the Channel Inventories are still flat. So are you shipping other stuff into the Channel that's making up for it? Like how is the mix, I guess, of end markets within that Channel changing as the consumer stuff is weakening?

知道了。對於我的後續問題，我想，我想再次深入了解渠道庫存。因此，許多弱勢的消費者產品都流向了渠道。聽起來您沒有將其運送到頻道中，但頻道庫存仍然持平。那麼您是否將其他東西運送到彌補它的渠道？就像我猜想，隨著消費者資源的減弱，該渠道內的終端市場的組合會發生怎樣的變化？

We will not speak about the mix because then it really becomes complicated. But it is not that we do not ship at all in the Channel. We ship into the Channel to keep a steady level of 1.6 months of inventory. So it's not to say that this is so dramatic that we have to stop all shipments. That's not how it works. We just -- we are very disciplined. Bill and I are actually sitting every week and we look at the sell-through and sell-in data with each of our distribution partners by segment. And then we make sure every week, that's not only at the end of the quarter, that's through the quarter, that it doesn't surpass the 1.6.

我們不會談論混合，因為那樣它真的變得複雜了。但這並不是說我們根本不在海峽中發貨。我們向渠道發貨以保持 1.6 個月的穩定庫存水平。所以這並不是說這太戲劇化了，我們必須停止所有的發貨。這不是它的工作原理。我們只是——我們非常自律。比爾和我實際上每週都坐下來，我們按細分市場查看每個分銷合作夥伴的銷售和銷售數據。然後我們確保每週，不僅是在季度末，整個季度，它都不會超過 1.6。

The change we wanted to communicate today is only that so far, honestly, for 8 quarters in a row, I was desperate to get it up. I mean I would have wished we could have shipped more into it in order to have a higher Channel Inventory. (technical difficulty) Now, given those consumer trends, we are actually more disciplined to make sure it doesn't go higher especially in those parts where actually the demand is, but it doesn't mean there is fewer shipments.

我們今天想要傳達的變化只是到目前為止，老實說，連續 8 個季度，我都迫切希望得到它。我的意思是我希望我們可以向它運送更多產品，以便擁有更高的渠道庫存。 （技術難度）現在，考慮到這些消費趨勢，我們實際上更加自律，以確保它不會走高，特別是在那些實際需求量大的部分，但這並不意味著出貨量減少。

I understand that. I guess what I'm asking is, is it fair to say, even if you don't want to go to the mix, the detailed mix that the consumer mix within the Channel is lower and mix of other stuff is higher now versus maybe a couple of quarters ago?

我明白那個。我想我要問的是，公平地說，即使你不想去混合，現在渠道內的消費者組合較低而其他東西的混合比現在更高的詳細組合幾個季度前？

No.

不。

No? Okay.

不？好的。

I'm not sure why you think it should be. No, it is not.

我不知道你為什麼認為它應該是。不它不是。

Well, I mean if the consumer stuff is so much weaker, you said it's 40% of your Industrial business, and a lot of it goes through the Channel, and clearly, demand is weakening. And it sounds like they're limiting shipments of that stuff into the Channel. That's all. But the total inventories look the same.

好吧，我的意思是，如果消費者的東西如此疲軟，你說它是你工業業務的 40%，而且其中很大一部分是通過渠道進行的，很明顯，需求正在減弱。聽起來他們正在限制將這些東西運送到海峽。就這樣。但總庫存看起來是一樣的。

Yes, Stacy, we are limiting shipments. But I mean I think about it this way. The Industrial IoT segment is 18% of the total revenue of the company, and 40% of that is the Consumer IoT, and that's still not at a 0 shipment level. So it is not that dramatic from a change perspective.

是的，史黛西，我們正在限制發貨。但我的意思是我是這樣想的。工業物聯網部門占公司總收入的 18%，其中 40% 是消費者物聯網，這仍然不是 0 出貨量。所以從變化的角度來看，這並不是那麼戲劇化。

Our next question comes from William Stein with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 William Stein 和 Truist。

I'm hoping you might have some discussion in terms of the difference in demand levels and lead times and your level of constraints between Automotive on the one hand and Industrial on the other. I think in prior quarters, you've noted that Industrial is even more constrained than Automotive. That doesn't quite get the same level of attention. Can you update us on that dynamic, please?

我希望您可以就需求水平和交貨時間的差異以及汽車與工業之間的限制水平進行一些討論。我認為在前幾個季度，您已經註意到工業比汽車更受限制。這並沒有得到同等程度的關注。你能給我們更新一下這個動態嗎？

We really don't have it broken down that way but Will the key shortages in the Core Industrial are indeed continuing to be highly escalated and quite painful. So I think I can repeat the statement I made earlier that while there continues to be a lot of public reports about the shortages in Auto and much less noise about Industrial, in our case, in the Core Industrial, we continue to be as short as we used to be before.

我們真的沒有把它分解成那樣，但核心工業的關鍵短缺確實會繼續高度升級，而且相當痛苦。所以我想我可以重複我之前發表的聲明，雖然關於汽車短缺的公開報導仍然很多，關於工業的噪音要少得多，但在我們的案例中，在核心工業中，我們仍然像我們以前是。

I said it earlier, I think, in the context of a different question. Say for the next couple of quarters, I think about 4 or 5 quarters, we believe after risk adjusting our demand, we should have about 85% coverage against (inaudible). That used to be 80%. So you see we are 5 percentage points higher, but that is not necessarily because the supply capability in Auto or Core Industrial has gone up so much, it is just that the consumer IoT demand on the other side for the total company has dropped such that in aggregate for the total we come up to 85%. But it continues to be equally painful in Auto and Industrial than it used to be.

我之前說過，我認為，是在另一個問題的背景下。說在接下來的幾個季度，我認為大約 4 或 5 個季度，我們相信在風險調整我們的需求之後，我們應該有大約 85% 的覆蓋率（聽不清）。以前是80%。所以你看我們高出 5 個百分點，但這並不一定是因為汽車或核心工業的供應能力上升了這麼多，只是另一邊的消費者物聯網對整個公司的需求下降了，所以總的來說，我們達到了 85%。但它在汽車和工業領域的痛苦仍然與過去相同。

Appreciate that. As a follow-up, I'd like to linger on this, the small pivot you're making in terms of the way you're dealing with the Channel in your inventory. And I wonder if the company has evaluated potentially moving to a consignment-oriented model which would allow you to make even more control. There's only one company that I'm aware of that has perceived that in a big way that this sort of an outlier in terms of how to deal with distribution. But I wonder if that's a growing thought given your approach that you're discussing today.

感謝。作為後續行動，我想繼續討論這一點，即您在處理庫存中的渠道的方式方面所做的小轉變。我想知道該公司是否已經評估了轉向寄售導向模式的可能性，這將使您能夠進行更多控制。據我所知，只有一家公司在很大程度上意識到這種在如何處理分銷方面的異常值。但我想知道考慮到你今天討論的方法，這是否是一個日益增長的想法。

Thanks, Bill, but that's a quick answer, no, we are not contemplating that.

謝謝，比爾，但這是一個快速的回答，不，我們沒有考慮這個。

Our next question comes from Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Gary Mobley。

I wanted to talk about one of your smaller businesses for a second, and that is the Mobile side of the business. You highlighted what sounds like 8% upside to your Q3 revenue forecast for that particular business. And we step back and look at the full year. Based on your Q4 guide, you're going to grow that business by close to 10%, which is counterintuitive given some of the weak mobile handset-related data points. So what's helping you outperform there? Is it content growth? Or is it Inventory Channel related?

我想談一談你們的一個小型企業，那就是企業的移動端。您強調了該特定業務的第三季度收入預測聽起來有 8% 的上升空間。我們退後一步，看看全年。根據您的第四季度指南，您將把該業務增長近 10%，考慮到一些與手機相關的薄弱數據點，這是違反直覺的。那麼是什麼幫助你在這方面表現出色？是內容增長嗎？還是與庫存渠道有關？

It's got nothing to do with Channel or Inventory because we put the same discipline on all segments. Now it has to do with our strategy, which is really on content growth. Think about the mobile wallet. Think about the kicking in ultra-wide bands. And we also have, I'd say, directionally, it's not black and white, but we have a bias to higher-end mobile phone market, which comparably is doing better this year than the very low-end Android. So I'd say therefore two answers.

這與渠道或庫存無關，因為我們對所有細分市場都設置了相同的規則。現在它與我們的戰略有關，這實際上是關於內容增長。想想移動錢包。想想超寬帶的發展。而且我們也有，我會說，在方向上，它不是黑白的，但我們偏向高端手機市場，今年的表現比非常低端的安卓要好。所以我會說兩個答案。

Our company-specific content increase in share gains are working out. I mean that is very much in line with how we put it a year ago at our Investor Day. And secondly, you might say we are in a good position because we are somewhat more exposed to the higher end rather than the feature phones, the Android phones.

我們公司特定內容的股票收益增加正在奏效。我的意思是這與我們一年前在投資者日的說法非常一致。其次，您可能會說我們處於有利位置，因為我們更多地接觸高端而不是功能手機，Android 手機。

As my follow-up, I want to ask about the latest U.S. export restrictions. My hunch is you're not so much directly impacted from these U.S. export restrictions. But I guess indirectly, can you speak to how it may result in some kitting issues in certain end markets and/or whether it requires you to change your manufacturing footprint?

作為我的後續，我想問一下美國最新的出口限制。我的預感是，您不會受到這些美國出口限制的直接影響。但我間接猜測，你能談談它如何導致某些終端市場的一些配套問題和/或它是否需要你改變你的製造足跡？

Yes. So first of all, of course, at all times, we will 100% make sure that we are in total compliance with any export control regulations, and so we are also after these latest changes. All of our assessment so far of these latest changes in the regulations show that, if anything, we have super immaterial impact on our revenues.

是的。首先，當然，在任何時候，我們都會 100% 確保我們完全遵守任何出口管制法規，因此我們也在關注這些最新的變化。到目前為止，我們對這些法規最新變化的所有評估都表明，如果有的話，我們對我們的收入產生了超非實質性的影響。

When it comes to second or third order effect, which you were hinting to, also there I must admit we haven't really found anything which looks like being an issue for us. But of course, we keep researching it. But at this point, I can only say no. If anything, only super immaterial impact.

當談到你暗示的二階或三階效應時，我也必須承認，我們還沒有真正發現任何看起來對我們來說是個問題的東西。但當然，我們一直在研究它。但在這一點上，我只能說不。如果有的話，只是超級無形的影響。

Our next question comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Matt Ramsay 和 Cowen。

Kurt, for my first question is, you were very clear about the trends in your Automotive business and the business continues to do quite well. And I think to an earlier question, you mentioned that sort of on a quarterly basis, the SAAR numbers and the L2, L3 penetration numbers of ADAS continue to kind of go higher in your own estimates. But how do you guys made any changes to those kind of mix and content assumptions in the next year or two just based on interest rates?

庫爾特，我的第一個問題是，您對汽車業務的趨勢非常清楚，並且業務繼續做得很好。我認為對於之前的一個問題，你提到過這種情況，你每季度都提到，SAAR 數字和 ADAS 的 L2、L3 滲透率在你自己的估計中繼續上升。但是，你們是如何在未來一兩年內僅根據利率對這些混合和內容假設做出任何改變的呢？

I think a lot of us externally saw some of the data out of CarMax and some other sources that new car purchases are obviously financed pretty heavily. So is there any assumptions that might have changed recently in your forecasting based on some of the interest rates? That would be interesting.

我認為我們中的很多人從外部看到了 CarMax 和其他一些來源的一些數據，表明新車購買顯然得到了相當大的資金支持。那麼，根據某些利率，您的預測最近是否有任何假設發生了變化？那會很有趣。

Yes, Matt. So we -- I give you here two answers. The one is the short term. So when it comes to the guidance for Q4, it is really based on orders at hand. I mean we don't -- it sounds big number. We don't make these strategic considerations for the next 3 months. This is really about orders and supply capability.

是的，馬特。所以我們——我在這裡給你兩個答案。一是短期。因此，當談到第四季度的指導時，它實際上是基於手頭的訂單。我的意思是我們沒有——這聽起來很大。我們不會在接下來的 3 個月內進行這些戰略考慮。這實際上與訂單和供應能力有關。

Longer term, say next year, again, I don't want to say I have the crystal ball. So we use IHS typically for the SAAR, which I think just updated their forecast for next year for a 4% SAAR growth to, I believe, something like 85 million units.

從長遠來看，明年再說一次，我不想說我有水晶球。因此，我們通常將 IHS 用於 SAAR，我認為他們剛剛更新了他們對明年 SAAR 增長 4% 的預測，我相信，大約是 8500 萬台。

However, it really isn't that important at all. What really matters is the content increase, which has a lot to do with the mix to e-vehicles, premium vehicles and other features kicking in. So I think the whole discussion around interest rates and recessions looming left and right, I agree with you it could have impact on the demand behavior of people buying cars.

然而，它真的一點都不重要。真正重要的是內容的增加，這與電動汽車、高檔汽車和其他功能的混合有很大關係。所以我認為圍繞利率和經濟衰退的整個討論左右隱約，我同意你的看法它可能會對人們購買汽車的需求行為產生影響。

But unless that drops incredibly far down, I believe that the content -- the semiconductor content per car is actually dropping the moves on the SAAR itself. And that is for us much more relevant. But again, I mean, we don't guide next year. I don't know what it is going to be, but we really should more and more start to look at this as a semiconductor company and industry from a content perspective rather than a unit perspective in Automotive.

但除非它下降得難以置信，否則我相信內容——每輛車的半導體含量實際上正在下降 SAAR 本身的動作。這對我們來說更重要。但是，我的意思是，我們明年不指導。我不知道它會是什麼，但我們真的應該越來越多地開始從內容的角度而不是汽車的單位角度來看待它作為一家半導體公司和行業。

I realize it's a tough -- big picture question, but it's one that we're getting. As my follow-up, I wanted to ask, in the automotive sector, you guys obviously have a strong position in BMS, so managing the battery. But there's sort of two sides to managing the battery. There's actually running the car, and then there's the charging side and lots of conversation on why in batt semis and what it means for fast -- onboard fast chargers.

我意識到這是一個棘手的大問題，但這是我們正在解決的問題。作為我的後續，我想問一下，在汽車領域，你們顯然在 BMS 中佔有重要地位，所以管理電池。但是管理電池有兩個方面。實際上是在運行汽車，然後是充電方面，以及關於為什麼在 batt semis 中以及它對快速車載快速充電器的意義的大量討論。

And I wonder, as a full BMS solution managing the charging and the discharge of the battery, is that something that you guys are looking into, not the manufacturer or anything (inaudible) buying it from someone else and doing a fully integrated both sides of the battery type solution? And any thoughts there would be helpful. Really appreciate it.

我想知道，作為一個管理電池充電和放電的完整 BMS 解決方案，你們正在研究的東西，而不是製造商或任何東西（聽不清）從別人那裡購買並完全集成雙方電池類型解決方案？任何想法都會有所幫助。真的很感激。

Well, actually, we not only look at it, but we work the system end-to-end. So we are also very busy with companies building and providing the charging infrastructure. I think we have revealed earlier, so I may use the name. We work closely with ChargePoint, for example, in the U.S. And that is not only on the charging, but that even includes payment to make this a very seamless process for the consumer. So our payment and identification and security technologies are also being included in this.

好吧，實際上，我們不僅看它，而且我們端到端地工作系統。因此，我們也非常忙於建設和提供充電基礎設施的公司。我想我們之前已經透露過，所以我可以使用這個名字。例如，我們在美國與 ChargePoint 密切合作，這不僅體現在收費方面，甚至還包括付款，以使這一過程對消費者來說是一個非常無縫的過程。因此，我們的支付、身份識別和安全技術也包含在其中。

So yes, we look at it as a -- from a total end-to-end basis. However, I have to say this still means we are not going into discrete power. So whenever these systems and wherever they need discrete power solutions, so like silicon carbide, this is not our focus. Our focus remains on the advanced analog and logic products, which we think is about 50% of that opportunity.

所以是的，我們將其視為 - 從一個完整的端到端基礎。但是，我不得不說這仍然意味著我們不會進入離散電源。因此，無論何時這些系統需要分立電源解決方案，例如碳化矽，這都不是我們關注的重點。我們的重點仍然是先進的模擬和邏輯產品，我們認為這大約佔了這一機會的 50%。

Our next question comes from Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

Great. I know last quarter you guys have talked about the desire of the automotive companies to build up safety stock at the Tier 1 level, I think you talked about 6 months. Where are they in that process? I mean it definitely sounds like things are still pretty tight, but is there any indication that they're able to put any of that inventory into place?

偉大的。我知道上個季度你們談到了汽車公司希望在一級一級建立安全庫存，我想你們談到了 6 個月。他們在那個過程中處於什麼位置？我的意思是，聽起來事情仍然很緊張，但有沒有跡象表明他們能夠將任何庫存到位？

Yes. Indeed, that is a strategic requirement, which, in many cases, OEMs are and have been putting on Tier 1s. My guess is -- it's very hard to get the full picture of this, but my guess is that in some few cases, they start to be able to start building somewhat. On a lot of those core products which are plaguing us and others from a sheer built performance perspective, they are very, very far from achieving anything in this. Because, again, even before that would happen, the whole supply chain, the whole extended supply chain needs to build a higher inventory level. That's not just one company but it's just that the whole trade becomes more functional.

是的。事實上，這是一項戰略要求，在許多情況下，原始設備製造商已經並將一直放在一級。我的猜測是——很難全面了解這一點，但我的猜測是，在少數情況下，他們開始能夠開始構建。從純粹的內置性能角度來看，在許多困擾我們和其他人的核心產品上，它們離實現任何目標都非常非常遠。因為，即使在此之前，整個供應鏈，整個延伸的供應鏈都需要建立更高的庫存水平。這不僅僅是一家公司，而是整個行業變得更加實用。

So I would say, given the end demand trends and how I would judge the supply capability of us and the industry, this will take all of next year still before we come even close to that requirement.

所以我想說，鑑於最終需求趨勢以及我如何判斷我們和行業的供應能力，這將需要明年的所有時間才能達到我們甚至接近這一要求。

Joe, did you have a follow-up or is that it?

喬，你有後續行動嗎？

No, I'm good, Jeff.

不，我很好，傑夫。

This would probably our last question. Operator?

這可能是我們的最後一個問題。操作員？

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I have two questions. First one is on pricing. I think if we take the midpoint of your Q4 revenue guidance, you're going to be growing around 19% for the full year. I think you gave really good color last quarter on how significant the tailwind is from pricing. If we can get an update on '22 pricing, that would be great. And then your preliminary thoughts into '23, again, from a pricing perspective particularly given, I think, the intent on your foundry supplier to raise pricing next year as well?

我有兩個問題。第一個是定價。我認為，如果我們採用第四季度收入指導的中點，全年將增長 19% 左右。我認為你在上個季度對定價的順風有多麼重要給出了很好的說明。如果我們能獲得 '22 定價的更新，那就太好了。然後你對 23 年的初步想法，再次，從定價的角度來看，我認為，你的代工供應商也打算在明年提高定價？

Yes, Toshiya, so as a good practice, as we've done for last year, we will provide the full year pricing impact for calendar year '22 in quarter 1 of '23. It's still very, very dynamic, I would almost say day in, day out. So we will give you and provide you the aggregate pricing impact on our revenue growth for this year in Q1 of next year.

是的，Toshiya，作為一種良好做法，就像我們去年所做的那樣，我們將在 23 年的第一季度提供 22 年日曆年的全年定價影響。它仍然非常非常有活力，我幾乎會說日復一日。因此，我們將在明年第一季度向您提供並提供對我們今年收入增長的總體定價影響。

From an overall dynamic perspective, we continue to see quite sizable cost -- input cost decreases to us. That is from the foundry partners, but there's also a lot of other inflationary cost increases. And of course, we absolutely walk the talk that we stick to our strategy to pass on those input cost increases to our customers to exactly that level that we can protect our gross profit percentage.

從整體動態的角度來看，我們繼續看到相當可觀的成本——投入成本對我們來說是下降的。那是來自代工合作夥伴，但也有很多其他的通貨膨脹成本增加。當然，我們絕對會堅持我們的戰略，將這些投入成本增加轉嫁給我們的客戶，以達到我們可以保護我們的毛利潤百分比的水平。

And seeing how the supply-demand imbalance in our core markets is moving into next year, I guess it is reasonable to assume that we will continue to raise prices also next year. We are now so much to the end of '22 that I think it's fair to say it's highly likely that we will also continue next year's prices just following those input cost increases.

看到我們核心市場的供需失衡如何進入明年，我想我們可以合理地假設我們明年也將繼續提高價格。我們現在已經到了 22 年底，我認為可以公平地說，在投入成本增加之後，我們很可能還會繼續明年的價格。

That's helpful. As my follow-up, just on how you're thinking about utilization rates and CapEx going forward, Bill, you talked about utilization rates being in the high 90s. Given your comment on inventory growing in the quarter, my guess is you're keeping utilization rates to where they are but just wanted to clarify that.

這很有幫助。作為我的後續行動，就您如何看待利用率和未來的資本支出而言，比爾，您談到利用率處於 90 年代的高位。鑑於您對本季度庫存增長的評論，我的猜測是您將利用率保持在原來的水平，但只是想澄清一下。

And then on CapEx, you mentioned you've had equipment delivery delays. Should we expect CapEx to be elevated into '23? Or is it a little bit premature to say at this point?

然後在資本支出方面，你提到你有設備交付延遲。我們是否應該期望資本支出提升到 23 年？或者現在說這個有點為時過早？

So let me quickly take the utilization, and Bill is going to speak about CapEx. On the utilization, yes, we will stay very, very highly utilized because, as Bill put it earlier, the majority of our internal front-end factories are working for Automotive and Core Industrial. So that's exactly there where we see the strong demand continuing, and that's why the utilization rates there will stay very high.

因此，讓我快速了解一下利用率，Bill 將談論資本支出。在利用率方面，是的，我們將保持非常非常高的利用率，因為正如比爾之前所說，我們內部的大多數前端工廠都在為汽車和核心工業工作。所以這正是我們看到強勁需求持續的地方，這就是為什麼那裡的利用率會保持很高的原因。

Bill, over to you for CapEx.

比爾，給你資本支出。

Yes. Related to the CapEx, as I mentioned, we will do better this year, 10% going to 8%. And next year, we will be in the range between 6% and 8%.

是的。正如我所提到的，與資本支出相關，我們今年會做得更好，從 10% 到 8%。明年，我們將在 6% 到 8% 之間。

Yes. I guess that gets us to the end of the call. So in summary, I would say we are cautious in the near term given all the macro uncertainty. However, under the surface, we see what I call the dichotomy, which is really a very disciplined approach to a weakening consumer IoT market, where we want to stay ahead of the game and not trim the Channel.

是的。我想這會讓我們結束通話。因此，總而言之，鑑於所有宏觀不確定性，我想說我們在短期內保持謹慎。然而，在表面之下，我們看到了我所說的二分法，這確實是一種非常嚴格的方法來應對日益疲軟的消費物聯網市場，我們希望在遊戲中保持領先地位，而不是削減渠道。

While, at the very same time, we continue to be supply constrained quite significantly in our Core Industrial and Automotive markets, where we try to do everything in-house and with our foundry partners to get the supply the soonest in line with the pretty resilient demand signals which we are having. And that sets it for the call today. Thank you all very much. Thank you.

與此同時，我們在核心工業和汽車市場繼續受到相當大的供應限制，在這些市場中，我們嘗試在內部和與我們的代工合作夥伴一起做所有事情，以盡快使供應與相當有彈性的市場保持一致我們擁有的需求信號。這為今天的電話會議奠定了基礎。非常感謝大家。謝謝你。

Thank you, Josh. Appreciate everybody's attendance. That concludes the call today.

謝謝你，喬希。感謝大家的出席。今天的通話到此結束。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。