恩智浦 (NXPI) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the NXP Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) And now I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jeff Palmer, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

    美好的一天,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加恩智浦 2021 年第三季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)現在我想將會議轉交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Jeff Palmer 先生。請繼續,先生。

  • Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

    Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Dexter, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the NXP Semiconductors Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. With me on the call today is Kurt Sievers, NXP's President and CEO; and Bill Betz, our CFO. The call today is being recorded and will be available for replay from our corporate website.

    謝謝你,德克斯特,大家早上好。歡迎參加恩智浦半導體 2021 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是恩智浦總裁兼首席執行官 Kurt Sievers;還有我們的首席財務官 Bill Betz。今天的通話正在錄音中,可從我們的公司網站重播。

  • Today's call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, the macroeconomic impact on the specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products and our expectations for the financial results for the fourth quarter of 2021.

    今天的電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述,這些風險和不確定性可能導致恩智浦的業績與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於關於 COVID-19 大流行對我們業務的持續影響、對我們經營的特定終端市場的宏觀經濟影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們的預期的陳述2021年第四季度的財務業績。

  • Please be reminded that NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements. For a full disclosure on forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release. Additionally, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are driven primarily by discrete events that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance.

    請注意,恩智浦不承擔公開修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。有關前瞻性陳述的完整披露,請參閱我們的新聞稿。此外,我們將參考某些非公認會計原則財務指標,這些指標主要由管理層認為與恩智浦基本核心運營業績不直接相關的離散事件驅動。

  • Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliation to the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our third quarter 2021 earnings press release, which will be furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K and is available on NXP's website in the Investor Relations section at nxp.com.

    根據 G 條例,恩智浦在我們的 2021 年第三季度收益新聞稿中提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬,該新聞稿將以 8-K 表形式提供給 SEC,並可在恩智浦網站上查閱在 nxp.com 的投資者關係部分。

  • Before we start the call today, I'd like to remind everyone of our upcoming Analyst Day on Thursday, November 11, 2021. We are hosting a hybrid event. We will be in person in New York City, but also simulcasting the event from our website for virtual attendees. After the event concludes, we will post the slides to the Investor Relations website. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Kurt.

    在我們今天開始電話會議之前,我想提醒大家我們即將在 2021 年 11 月 11 日星期四舉行的分析師日。我們正在舉辦一場混合活動。我們將親自到紐約市,但也會從我們的網站為虛擬與會者同步直播活動。活動結束後,我們會將幻燈片發佈到投資者關係網站。現在我想把電話轉給 Kurt。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Thanks very much, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call this morning. I will review our quarter 3 results and then discuss our guidance for quarter 4.

    是的。非常感謝,傑夫,大家早上好。感謝您今天早上加入我們的電話會議。我將回顧我們的第三季度業績,然後討論我們對第四季度的指導。

  • Overall, our quarter 3 results were better than the midpoint of our guidance with the mobile end market stronger than planned as a result of improved supply. At the same time, the trends in the auto, industrial and IoT and communication infrastructure markets were all in line with our guidance. Taken together, NXP delivered quarter 3 revenue of $2.86 billion, an increase of 26% year-on-year and $11 million above the midpoint of our guidance range. These are very good results given the constrained supply position we knew we would face entering the quarter.

    總體而言,我們的第三季度業績好於我們指引的中點,由於供應改善,移動終端市場強於計劃。同時,汽車、工業和物聯網以及通信基礎設施市場的趨勢都符合我們的指導。總的來說,恩智浦第三季度的收入為 28.6 億美元,同比增長 26%,比我們的指導範圍中點高出 1100 萬美元。鑑於我們知道進入本季度將面臨的供應受限,這些都是非常好的結果。

  • And we continue to view our channel and on-hand inventory metrics below our long-term targets. We exited quarter 3 with our distribution channel supply metric at 1.6 months, almost a full month lower than our long-term target, and we expect this to be the situation in quarter 4 again as well. Our non-GAAP operating margin in quarter 3 was a strong 33.5%, which is 770 basis points better than the year ago period and 50 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance. Operating profit dollars were $19 million better than guidance, driven by higher revenue and lower expense.

    我們繼續將我們的渠道和現有庫存指標視為低於我們的長期目標。我們以 1.6 個月的分銷渠道供應指標退出了第 3 季度,比我們的長期目標低了幾乎整整一個月,我們預計第 4 季度的情況也會再次出現。我們在第三季度的非公認會計準則營業利潤率為 33.5%,比去年同期高出 770 個基點,比我們的指導中點高出 50 個基點。在收入增加和費用減少的推動下,營業利潤比預期高出 1900 萬美元。

  • Now let me turn to the specific trends in our focus end markets, starting with automotive. Quarter 3 revenue was $1.46 billion, 51% up versus the year ago period and in line with our expectations. In industrial and IoT, quarter 3 revenue was $607 million, up 18% versus the year ago period and again in line with our expectations. In Mobile, quarter 3 revenue was $345 million, up about 2% versus the year ago period and above our expectations. Lastly, in Communication Infrastructure and Other, quarter 3 revenue was $454 million, about flat versus the year ago period and in line with our expectations.

    現在讓我談談我們重點終端市場的具體趨勢,從汽車開始。第三季度收入為 14.6 億美元,同比增長 51%,符合我們的預期。在工業和物聯網領域,第三季度收入為 6.07 億美元,同比增長 18%,再次符合我們的預期。在移動領域,第三季度收入為 3.45 億美元,比去年同期增長約 2%,高於我們的預期。最後,在通信基礎設施和其他方面,第三季度收入為 4.54 億美元,與去年同期持平,符合我們的預期。

  • With this, let me move straight to our outlook for quarter 4. We expect the midpoint of quarter 4 revenue to be $3 billion, up 20% versus the fourth quarter of 2020, within a range of up 17% to up 23% year-on-year. From a sequential perspective, this is up 5% at the midpoint versus the prior quarter. And we again anticipate demand outstripping available supply in our quarter 4 outlook.

    有了這個,讓我直接談談我們對第 4 季度的展望。我們預計第 4 季度的中點收入為 30 億美元,與 2020 年第四季度相比增長 20%,在 17% 至 23% 的範圍內 -同年。從連續的角度來看,這比上一季度的中點增長了 5%。我們再次預計在我們的第四季度展望中需求將超過可用供應。

  • At the midpoint of this range, we anticipate the following trends in our business. Automotive is expected to be up in the high 20% range year-on-year and up in the mid-single-digit range versus quarter 3 '21. Industrial and IoT is expected to be up in the high 20% range year-on-year and up in the mid-single-digit range versus quarter 3 '21. Mobile is expected to be down in the mid-teens range year-on-year and up in the low single-digit range versus quarter 3 '21. And finally, Communication Infrastructure and Other is expected to be up in the high teens range versus the same period a year ago and up in the low single-digit range versus quarter 3 '21.

    在此範圍的中點,我們預計我們的業務將出現以下趨勢。與 21 年第 3 季度相比,汽車預計將同比增長 20%,並在中個位數範圍內增長。與 21 年第 3 季度相比,工業和物聯網預計將同比增長 20%,並在中個位數範圍內增長。與 21 年第 3 季度相比,移動設備預計將同比下降到中位數範圍,並在低個位數範圍內上升。最後,與去年同期相比,通信基礎設施和其他預計將在青少年範圍內上升,與 21 年第 3 季度相比,將在低個位數範圍內上升。

  • Over the course of the last 2 quarters, investors continue to ask how to reconcile the revenue performance of NXP's automotive business with that of the global vehicle production numbers as they are reported by IHS. Specifically, NXP's Automotive segment revenue is expected to be up over 40% in 2021. Against this the auto OEMs continue to struggle to match supply to strong consumer demand with the auto industry likely not able to meaningfully grow unit production versus 2020.

    在過去兩個季度中,投資者繼續詢問如何將恩智浦汽車業務的收入表現與 IHS 報告的全球汽車生產數據相協調。具體而言,NXP 的汽車部門收入預計將在 2021 年增長 40% 以上。與此相反,汽車 OEM 繼續努力使供應與強勁的消費者需求相匹配,因為與 2020 年相比,汽車行業可能無法顯著增加單位產量。

  • Now let me make a few observations, which may help you understand this divergence. First, the auto supply chain is very extended and complex with multiple points of product transformation across the globe. This extended supply chain needs to coordinate the timing and delivery of up to 30,000 parts and up to 1,500 different semiconductors from hundreds of suppliers to build just one single car.

    現在讓我做一些觀察,這可能有助於你理解這種分歧。首先,汽車供應鏈非常延伸和復雜,在全球範圍內有多個產品轉型點。這條擴展的供應鏈需要協調來自數百家供應商的多達 30,000 個零件和多達 1,500 種不同半導體的時間安排和交付,從而僅製造一輛汽車。

  • During normal periods from the time at which NXP ships a finished component to when the final assembly gets fitted into a finished car, it takes up to 6 months. And this is on top of the normal semiconductor manufacturing cycle times of 3 to 6 months. At each step of the transformation, as thousands of parts move through a complex global network of suppliers. For the process to work efficiently, it is essential that all of the components needed to complete a car are available exactly there and when they are required.

    從恩智浦運送成品部件到最終裝配到成品汽車上的正常期間,最多需要 6 個月的時間。這是在 3 到 6 個月的正常半導體製造週期時間之上的。在轉型的每一步,成千上萬的零件通過複雜的全球供應商網絡移動。為了使該過程有效地進行,完成汽車所需的所有組件必須在需要時準確地在那裡可用。

  • Now we believe the extended auto supply chain significantly depleted on-hand inventory of all types of products, including semiconductors, already by the beginning in the second half of 2018 and continuing through 2019 and most of 2020. That depletion was a result of global car production declining 6% in 2019 and another 16% in 2020. While NXP's auto business, despite content increases, declined by 7% into 2019 and by another 9% into 2020.

    現在我們認為,從 2018 年下半年開始並持續到 2019 年和 2020 年大部分時間,汽車供應鏈的擴展已經顯著消耗了包括半導體在內的所有類型產品的現有庫存。這種消耗是全球汽車的結果2019 年產量下降 6%,2020 年再下降 16%。而恩智浦的汽車業務儘管內容有所增加,但到 2019 年下降了 7%,到 2020 年又下降了 9%。

  • Now let me illustrate the impact by using the NXP distribution channel as a proxy for overall auto supply-demand trends and how we have been directly affected. We consistently monitor and measure all component movements and inventory data at our distribution partners at the end market level. Throughout 2021, these metrics for automotive have been at record low levels, with on-hand inventory being about 1 month below our long-term target of 2.5 months, with demand in the intermediate term being consistently greater than our ability to rebuild inventory back to normalized levels.

    現在讓我通過使用恩智浦分銷渠道作為整體汽車供需趨勢的代理來說明影響,以及我們如何受到直接影響。我們始終如一地在終端市場層面監控和測量我們分銷合作夥伴的所有組件移動和庫存數據。在整個 2021 年,這些汽車指標一直處於創紀錄的低水平,現有庫存比我們 2.5 個月的長期目標低約 1 個月,中期需求始終大於我們將庫存重建回標準化水平。

  • In our and my personal daily discussions with our customers throughout the auto supply chain, we hear the consistent message that they want significantly more product. And in some cases, Tier 1s are struggling to assemble full kits. And in other cases, the OEMs choose to build partially completed cars or hold their production lines altogether.

    在我們和我個人與整個汽車供應鏈客戶的日常討論中,我們聽到了一致的信息,即他們想要更多的產品。在某些情況下,Tier 1 正在努力組裝完整的套件。在其他情況下,原始設備製造商選擇製造部分完成的汽車或完全保留他們的生產線。

  • For NXP, lead times for about 75% of our automotive products continued to be above 52 weeks. Against this backdrop, our customers are placing NCNR orders to assure long-term supply. We, in turn, are making long-term supply commitments to our supply partners. In summary, we think the automotive supply-demand equation will continue to be out of balance through 2022.

    對於恩智浦,我們約 75% 的汽車產品的交貨期持續在 52 週以上。在此背景下,我們的客戶正在下 NCNR 訂單以確保長期供應。反過來,我們正在向我們的供應合作夥伴做出長期供應承諾。總之,我們認為到 2022 年,汽車供需平衡將繼續失衡。

  • In addition, as a learning out of the current material shortage situation and in order to mitigate the impacts the auto OEMs are experiencing today, our Tier 1 partners explicitly demand that more supplies and inventory will be needed in the extended supply chain, which we believe cannot be broadly achieved before 2023.

    此外,作為對當前材料短缺情況的了解,為了減輕汽車原始設備製造商今天所遭受的影響,我們的一級合作夥伴明確要求在擴展的供應鏈中需要更多的供應和庫存,我們相信這在 2023 年之前無法廣泛實現。

  • Now with this currently dysfunctional supply chain as a backdrop, there are very clear and very positive trends that have simultaneously increased the demand for auto semiconductors industry-wide as a consequence of content growth. We have seen multiple OEMs prioritize the production of premium vehicles, which require upwards of twice the semiconductor content from NXP and others.

    現在,以目前功能失調的供應鍊為背景,由於內容增長,有非常明顯和非常積極的趨勢同時增加了整個行業對汽車半導體的需求。我們已經看到多家原始設備製造商優先生產優質汽車,這需要恩智浦和其他公司的半導體含量超過兩倍。

  • And another clear and emerging secular content driver for the auto semiconductor market is the fast acceleration of full electric and hybrid electric vehicles, which combined have moved from 8% of global production in '19 to about 20% of production in 2021. This is very impactful since the average semiconductor content in an xEV is about $900, which is roughly 2x that of an equivalent ICE vehicle. These trends have resulted in industry-wide content per vehicle increasing at 10% per year over the last 3 years.

    汽車半導體市場的另一個明顯和新興的長期內容驅動因素是全電動和混合動力電動汽車的快速加速,它們合計已從 19 年全球產量的 8% 上升到 2021 年的約 20%。這非常由於 xEV 中的平均半導體含量約為 900 美元,大約是同等 ICE 車輛的 2 倍,因此具有影響力。這些趨勢導致過去 3 年每輛車的全行業含量以每年 10% 的速度增長。

  • And on top of all of this, NXP is consistently gaining share in our focused growth areas and increasing content. These content gains include 77 gigahertz radar safety systems, multiple electrification system opportunities beyond just battery management and new domain and sonar processing as well as others.

    最重要的是,恩智浦在我們專注的增長領域和不斷增加的內容中不斷獲得份額。這些內容收益包括 77 GHz 雷達安全系統、多個電氣化系統機會,而不僅僅是電池管理以及新領域和聲納處理等。

  • Now for NXP, it's of course not just automotive driving our performance. Within the industrial and IoT market, we see our ability to provide complete turnkey connected edge processing solutions consisting of processes, connectivity, security and analog, all leading to increased customer traction. These are all just a few examples that underpin our confidence in our company-specific growth. As Jeff mentioned earlier, we plan to go into much greater detail at our Investor Day on November 11 next week in New York.

    現在對於恩智浦來說,當然不僅僅是汽車驅動我們的表現。在工業和物聯網市場中,我們看到了我們提供完整的交鑰匙連接邊緣處理解決方案的能力,包括流程、連接性、安全性和模擬,所有這些都可以增加客戶的吸引力。這些只是鞏固我們對公司特定增長的信心的幾個例子。正如 Jeff 之前提到的,我們計劃在下週 11 月 11 日在紐約舉行的投資者日上更詳細地介紹。

  • In summary, we continue to execute very well in a strong demand environment, notwithstanding the industry-wide supply charges. From a company-specific perspective, NXP is experiencing very positive customer traction of our newest products and solutions. Putting it all together, we are highly confident that the company's specific drivers within our strategic end markets will continue to build also beyond Q4 into Q1, as well as over the intermediate term through 2022.

    總而言之,儘管行業範圍內的供應收費,我們在強勁的需求環境中繼續表現良好。從公司特定的角度來看,恩智浦正在體驗我們最新產品和解決方案的非常積極的客戶吸引力。綜上所述,我們非常有信心,該公司在我們的戰略終端市場中的具體驅動因素將在第四季度到第一季度以及到 2022 年的中期繼續建立。

  • Now before we move to the financial details of the quarter, I'd like to make a few remarks in the context of our recent announcement of Bill Betz as our new CFO. I have personally worked with Bill as a business partner and one of Peter Kelly's key finance leaders for over 8 years. Bill brings both a strong track record in career in the semiconductor industry as well as truly intimate knowledge of NXP and consistency to his new role. I personally drove the evaluation and interview process, interviewing a wide number of external candidates as well as Bill, and I concluded Bill is the right person to lead our NXP finance organization, and I'm personally truly excited to work with Bill and drive NXP's profitable growth going forward.

    現在,在我們討論本季度的財務細節之前,我想就我們最近宣布比爾·貝茨 (Bill Betz) 為我們的新首席財務官的背景發表一些評論。我個人作為商業夥伴和彼得凱利的主要財務領導人之一與比爾合作超過 8 年。 Bill 為他的新角色帶來了在半導體行業的良好職業記錄以及對 NXP 和一致性的真正深入了解。我親自推動了評估和麵試過程,採訪了大量外部候選人以及比爾,我認為比爾是領導我們恩智浦財務部門的合適人選,我個人非常高興能與比爾一起工作並推動恩智浦的未來盈利增長。

  • At the same time, I'd like to highlight the outstanding contribution Peter Kelly has played in the strategic evolution of NXP. Peter first came into the company in an operations role over a decade ago and then quickly moved into the CFO role to drive the financial discipline our stakeholders have all come to expect. He has been a clear thinking, strategic adviser to myself and a highly valued mentor to many on the NXP management team, obviously, including both Bill and Jeff. We wish Peter the very best in the next phase of his life and hope he gets to spend more quality time with his family.

    同時,我想強調彼得·凱利在恩智浦的戰略發展中所做出的傑出貢獻。十多年前,彼得第一次進入公司擔任運營職務,然後迅速轉任首席財務官,以推動我們的利益相關者都期待的財務紀律。他一直是我自己的思路清晰的戰略顧問,也是恩智浦管理團隊中許多人的高度重視的導師,顯然,包括比爾和傑夫。我們祝愿彼得在人生的下一階段一切順利,並希望他能與家人共度更多美好時光。

  • And with that, I would now like to pass the call to you, Bill, for a review of our financial performance. Bill?

    有了這個,我現在想把電話轉給你,比爾,審查我們的財務業績。賬單?

  • Bill Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Kurt, and good morning to everyone on today's call. As Kurt had already covered the drivers of the revenue during Q3 and provided our revenue outlook for Q4, I will move to the financial highlights.

    謝謝你,庫爾特,今天電話會議上的每個人早上好。由於庫爾特已經涵蓋了第三季度收入的驅動因素並提供了我們對第四季度的收入前景,我將轉向財務亮點。

  • Overall, our Q3 financial performance was very good. Revenue was above the midpoint of our guidance range and we drove an improvement of non-GAAP gross profit and non-GAAP operating profit, both of which were at the high end of our guidance range.

    總體而言,我們第三季度的財務表現非常好。收入高於我們指導範圍的中點,我們推動了非 GAAP 毛利潤和非 GAAP 營業利潤的改善,這兩者都處於我們指導範圍的高端。

  • Now moving to the details of Q3. Total revenue was $2.86 billion, up 26% year-on-year and above the midpoint of our guidance range. We generated $1.62 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 56.5%, up 640 basis points year-on-year and near the high end of our guidance. Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $657 million, up $107 million year-on-year and up $31 million from Q2. This was $8 million below the midpoint of our guidance due to lower material and mass spend during the quarter. From a total operating profit perspective, non-GAAP operating profit was $959 million and non-GAAP operating margin was 33.5%, up 770 basis points year-on-year. This was also at the high end of our guidance range as a result of better fall-through on higher revenues.

    現在轉到第三季度的細節。總收入為 28.6 億美元,同比增長 26%,高於我們指導範圍的中點。我們創造了 16.2 億美元的非美國通用會計準則毛利潤,報告非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 56.5%,同比增長 640 個基點,接近我們指引的高端。非美國通用會計準則運營費用總額為 6.57 億美元,同比增加 1.07 億美元,比第二季度增加 3100 萬美元。由於本季度材料和大規模支出減少,這比我們的指導中點低 800 萬美元。從總營業利潤來看,非美國通用會計準則營業利潤為9.59億美元,非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為33.5%,同比增長770個基點。由於更高的收入更好地下降,這也處於我們指導範圍的高端。

  • Non-GAAP interest expense was $94 million with cash taxes on going operations of $86 million and noncontrolling interest was $7 million. Taken together, the below-the-line items were $8 million better than our guidance. Stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP earnings, was $81 million.

    非公認會計原則的利息支出為 9400 萬美元,持續經營的現金稅為 8600 萬美元,非控制性權益為 700 萬美元。總而言之,線下項目比我們的指導高出 800 萬美元。不包括在我們的非公認會計原則收益中的基於股票的薪酬為 8100 萬美元。

  • Now I would like to turn to the changes in our cash and debt. Our total debt at the end of Q3 was $9.59 billion, flat on a sequential basis. Our ending cash position was $2.3 billion, down $607 million sequentially due to higher CapEx and robust capital returns during the quarter. The resulting net debt was $7.29 billion, and we exited the quarter with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $3.92 billion.

    現在我想談談我們的現金和債務的變化。我們在第三季度末的總債務為 95.9 億美元,環比持平。由於本季度較高的資本支出和強勁的資本回報,我們的期末現金頭寸為 23 億美元,環比下降 6.07 億美元。由此產生的淨債務為 72.9 億美元,我們在本季度結束時的 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 為 39.2 億美元。

  • Our ratio of debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at the end of Q3 was 1.9x, and our 12-month adjusted EBITDA interest coverage ratio was 11x. Our liquidity continues to be excellent, and our balance sheet is very strong.

    截至第三季度末,我們的債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.9 倍,我們 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 利息覆蓋率為 11 倍。我們的流動性仍然很好,我們的資產負債表非常強勁。

  • During Q3 we repurchased $1.16 billion of our shares and paid $152 million in cash dividends for a total of $1.31 billion of capital return to our owners. Subsequent to the end of Q3, between October 3 and November 1, we repurchased an additional $300 million of our shares via a 10b5-1 program resulting in a total of $4 billion return to our owners year-to-date.

    在第三季度,我們回購了 11.6 億美元的股票並支付了 1.52 億美元的現金股息,為我們的所有者帶來了總計 13.1 億美元的資本回報。在第三季度末之後,即 10 月 3 日至 11 月 1 日期間,我們通過 10b5-1 計劃額外回購了 3 億美元的股票,從而使我們的所有者今年迄今總共獲得了 40 億美元的回報。

  • Turning to working capital metrics. Days of inventory was 85 days, a decline of 3 days sequentially. Our DIO continues to be below our long-term target of 95 days. We continue to closely manage our distribution channel with inventory in the channel at 1.6 months, flat sequentially and below our long-term targets. Both metrics reflect the continuation of strong customer order rates and a tight supply environment.

    轉向營運資金指標。庫存天數為85天,環比下降3天。我們的 DIO 繼續低於我們 95 天的長期目標。我們繼續密切管理我們的分銷渠道,渠道庫存為 1.6 個月,環比持平,低於我們的長期目標。這兩個指標都反映了強勁的客戶訂單率和緊張的供應環境的持續。

  • We continue to believe it will take multiple quarters before we are able to rebuild on hand and channel inventories to our long-term target level. Days receivable were 31 days, down 4 days sequentially, and days payable were 83, a decline of 9 days versus the prior quarter. Taken together, our cash conversion cycle was 33 days, an increase of 2 days versus prior quarter.

    我們仍然相信,在我們能夠重建現有庫存並將庫存引導到我們的長期目標水平之前,需要多個季度。應收天數31天,環比減少4天,應付天數83天,比上一季度減少9天。綜合來看,我們的現金轉換週期為 33 天,比上一季度增加了 2 天。

  • Cash flow from operations was $924 million, and net CapEx was $200 million, resulting in non-GAAP free cash flow of $724 million.

    運營現金流為 9.24 億美元,淨資本支出為 2 億美元,非 GAAP 自由現金流為 7.24 億美元。

  • Turning to our expectations for Q4. As Kurt mentioned, we anticipate Q4 revenue to be $3 billion, plus or minus $75 million. At the midpoint, this is up 20% year-on-year and up 5% sequentially. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be about 56.5%, plus or minus 50 basis points. Operating expenses are expected to be about $680 million, plus or minus about $10 million, consistent with our long-term model. Taken together, we see non-GAAP operating margin to be about 33.8% at the midpoint. We estimate non-GAAP financial expense to be about $94 million, and anticipate cash tax related to ongoing operations to be about $100 million. Noncontrolling interest will be about $9 million. For Q4, we suggest, for modeling purposes, you use an average share count of 270 million shares, which is down 15 million shares from a year ago period as a result of the consistent execution of our communicated capital return policy.

    轉向我們對第四季度的預期。正如庫爾特所說,我們預計第四季度的收入為 30 億美元,上下浮動 7500 萬美元。在中點,同比增長 20%,環比增長 5%。我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率約為 56.5%,上下浮動 50 個基點。運營費用預計約為 6.8 億美元,上下浮動約 1000 萬美元,與我們的長期模式一致。綜合來看,我們認為非 GAAP 營業利潤率在中點約為 33.8%。我們估計非公認會計原則財務費用約為 9400 萬美元,預計與持續運營相關的現金稅約為 1 億美元。非控股權益約為 900 萬美元。對於第 4 季度,出於建模目的,我們建議您使用 2.7 億股的平均股數,由於我們一致執行已傳達的資本回報政策,這比去年同期減少了 1500 萬股。

  • Finally, I have a few closing comments I'd like to make. First, demand trends continue to be strong across our target end markets and customer interest in our newest products continues to be very robust. At the same time, we are closely working with our customers and our suppliers to address order requests in a timely manner.

    最後,我想說幾句結束語。首先,我們的目標終端市場的需求趨勢繼續強勁,客戶對我們最新產品的興趣仍然非常強勁。同時,我們正與客戶和供應商密切合作,及時處理訂單請求。

  • Second, our Q4 guidance reflects the clear potential of our business model, both in terms of revenue growth as well as a significant profit fall-through, which will enable us to consistently drive our non-GAAP gross margin above the midpoint of our gross margin targets. Thirdly, our business continues to generate significant free cash flow, and we are committed to our capital return policy, and we'll return all excess free cash flow to our owners so long as our leverage ratio remains at or below 2x net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA.

    其次,我們的第四季度指導反映了我們業務模式的明顯潛力,無論是在收入增長還是在顯著的利潤下滑方面,這將使我們能夠持續推動我們的非公認會計準則毛利率高於毛利率的中點目標。第三,我們的業務繼續產生大量的自由現金流,我們致力於我們的資本回報政策,只要我們的槓桿率保持在或低於淨債務的 2 倍,我們就會將所有多餘的自由現金流返還給我們的所有者。 12 個月調整後 EBITDA。

  • I'd also like to take this opportunity to thank Peter Kelly for his significant contributions to NXP since he joined the company in 2011. Not only did Peter guide NXP from a financial perspective, but he truly help lead the company and drive the strategy that made NXP what it is today. And on a personal note, I consider Peter a great leader, a mentor and a friend, and I will always be grateful for your support.

    我還想藉此機會感謝彼得凱利自 2011 年加入恩智浦以來對恩智浦做出的重大貢獻。彼得不僅從財務角度指導恩智浦,而且他真正幫助領導公司並推動制定戰略使恩智浦成為今天的樣子。就個人而言,我認為彼得是一位偉大的領導者、導師和朋友,我將永遠感謝您的支持。

  • And then finally, I'd like to thank all my colleagues across NXP for their outstanding work and dedication. We shouldn't forget that we are all still working under strict pandemic protocols. So with that, I'd like to turn it back to the operator for questions.

    最後,我要感謝恩智浦的所有同事,感謝他們出色的工作和奉獻精神。我們不應該忘記,我們仍然在嚴格的大流行協議下工作。因此,我想將其轉回給運營商提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ross Seymore.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Ross Seymore。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • Bill, congratulations on the new role as CFO. My first question is for Kurt, and it's one on customer behavior. You gave a great deep dive into the apparent disconnect between the auto revs you have in production and all those explanations. What I really want to get into, are the customers changing the behavior? And if so, is it just with longer visibility for you, greater certainty? Or is the profitability that all the auto semi production -- companies are going to be able to garner from this sector starting to improve as well?

    比爾,祝賀你擔任首席財務官的新角色。我的第一個問題是針對 Kurt 的,是關於客戶行為的。您對生產中的自動轉速與所有這些解釋之間的明顯脫節進行了深入探討。我真正想了解的是,客戶是否會改變行為?如果是這樣,是否只是為您提供更長的可見性,更大的確定性?還是所有汽車半成品的盈利能力——公司將能夠從這個行業獲得的盈利能力也開始提高?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Indeed, a couple of changes. So first of all, very tactically and I just have to highlight that because it sits on top of my agenda every day in and out, there continues to be no change in pressure to get more products. So expedites, escalation calls, all sorts of real actions to try to get products faster to their manufacturing locations has not slowed down by an inch. So we see that continuing.

    是的。確實,有幾個變化。所以首先,從戰術上講,我只需要強調一點,因為它每天都在我的議程上,所以獲得更多產品的壓力仍然沒有變化。因此,加急、升級電話以及試圖將產品更快地送到製造地點的各種實際行動並沒有減慢一英寸。所以我們看到這種情況還在繼續。

  • From a more strategic and say, learning perspective, I would say, clearly the whole auto industry has realized now and that's for me a step function and the reset at the same time, has realized now how big the significance and importance of semiconductors is for their future, today, but also years out. I mean that's about innovation, but obviously, it's also about being able to build complete cars.

    從更具戰略性和學習的角度來看,我想說的是,整個汽車行業現在顯然已經意識到,這對我來說是一個階梯函數和重置,現在已經意識到半導體的重要性和重要性他們的未來,今天,還要過年。我的意思是這與創新有關,但顯然,這也與能夠製造完整的汽車有關。

  • And that has led to much closer and better relationships between us and directly the OEMs in terms of understanding both their innovation needs, but also the -- from a more tactical perspective, their product supply needs in the near and midterm. All of that leads then to a number of significant, I would say, quite significant changes. We are seeing longer-term orders so we get the so-called NCNR orders, which easily reach out for the entire next calendar year. These are coming from the Tier 1 customers of us, but of course, they do this since they get similar behavior from the OEMs. But we also get greater visibility into the longer term, which I find a very, very important perspective which reaches then over to innovation because the intimacy, which we can build with the OEMs now to think about future systems is a great help for us to construct the right road maps.

    這導致我們與直接 OEM 之間的關係更加緊密和更好,既了解他們的創新需求,也了解他們在近期和中期的產品供應需求。所有這一切都導致了一些重大的,我想說,相當重大的變化。我們看到了更長期的訂單,因此我們得到了所謂的 NCNR 訂單,這些訂單很容易在整個下一個日曆年得到解決。這些來自我們的一級客戶,但當然,他們這樣做是因為他們從原始設備製造商那裡得到了類似的行為。但我們也可以更深入地了解長期,我發現這是一個非常非常重要的視角,它可以延伸到創新,因為我們現在可以與原始設備製造商建立親密關係,以思考未來的系統,這對我們有很大幫助構建正確的路線圖。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • And I guess as my follow-up, just shifting gears quickly to a little bit of a nearer-term potential question, and that's on the mobile business. It's good to see that it upside surprised in the third quarter versus your original guidance. But I guess if I put the 2 quarters together, I know supply is tight and maybe you're just doing some allocation. But the mobile business is a bit weaker seasonally than we would have expected in the combination of the quarters. And I thought that, that was supposed to snap back a little bit in the third or in the fourth quarter, excuse me. So can you just talk about what's driving the relative weakness on a year-over-year basis in that business?

    我想作為我的後續行動,只是快速轉向一個近期的潛在問題,這就是移動業務。很高興看到它在第三季度與您最初的指導相比令人驚訝。但我想如果我把兩個季度放在一起,我知道供應緊張,也許你只是在做一些分配。但移動業務的季節性弱於我們對季度組合的預期。我想,那應該在第三節或第四節稍微恢復一點,對不起。那麼,您能否談談導致該業務同比相對疲軟的原因?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, it's clearly supply or the lack thereof, Ross. So as we -- when we went into quarter 3, I think we talked about a sequential decline, which we could avoid. So we could pull in some supply, and that's the whole reason why we actually ended up in mobile better than guidance. So there is no difference in sockets or anything. It was just that we had a somewhat better supply capability and we continue to forecast now a similar thing into the fourth quarter. But overall, if you take the full second half of this year, we are unfortunately significantly constrained in supply into the mobile market. It is gradually getting better, which is why we have this performance, I just quoted. But if you hold it just in total, it is pretty significantly suffering.

    好吧,這顯然是供應或缺乏,羅斯。因此,當我們進入第三季度時,我認為我們談到了連續下降,這是我們可以避免的。所以我們可以拉動一些供應,這就是我們最終在移動設備上比指導更好的全部原因。所以插座或任何東西沒有區別。只是我們有更好的供應能力,我們現在繼續預測到第四季度會有類似的情況。但總體而言,如果您考慮今年下半年的全部時間,不幸的是,我們在移動市場上的供應受到了嚴重限制。它正在逐漸變得更好,這就是為什麼我們有這樣的表現,我剛才引用了。但如果你完全持有它,它就會非常痛苦。

  • Now from a year-on-year perspective, Ross, it's a more difficult compare. Last year Q3, we had the ban on Huawei coming into play, which artificially bumped up quarter 3. And quarter 4, one of our very large mobile customers needed a lot of products, which also had to do with the phasing of the quarter of last year, which was later than normal. So that's why the year-on-year comparisons, both for Q3 and Q4, need some bridging given those 2 specific customer events. All in all, I just want to absolutely reconfirm we haven't lost a single socket there. So everything is going as we had planned. We are supply constrained, but the bigger drivers being the adoption of mobile wallet attach rates and also the early penetration of ultra wideband, secure ultra-wideband solutions are fully on track with earlier targets and earlier planning.

    現在從同比的角度來看,羅斯,這是一個更加困難的比較。去年第 3 季度,我們對華為實施了禁令,從而人為地提高了第 3 季度。而第 4 季度,我們的一個非常大的移動客戶需要大量產品,這也與該季度的階段性有關。去年,這比平常晚。因此,鑑於這兩個特定的客戶事件,第三季度和第四季度的同比比較需要一些橋樑。總而言之,我只想再次確認我們沒有丟失一個插座。所以一切都按照我們的計劃進行。我們的供應受到限制,但更大的驅動因素是移動錢包附加率的採用以及超寬帶的早期普及,安全的超寬帶解決方案與早期目標和早期計劃完全步入正軌。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next we have Vivek Arya.

    接下來我們有 Vivek Arya。

  • Vivek Arya - Director

    Vivek Arya - Director

  • Good luck to both Peter and Bill. Kurt, on the automotive industry, if one had told you that auto production would be flat this year, but your auto sales would have been up 40%. Would that have been predictable? And if not, what do you think surprised NXP other than some of the bad weather and the bad shutdown effect? Was it mix that surprised you? Was it pricing? Was it content? What specifically was the surprise this year to create this big gap between production and sales?

    祝彼得和比爾好運。庫爾特,關於汽車行業,如果有人告訴你今年汽車產量將持平,但你的汽車銷量會增長 40%。那會是可以預見的嗎?如果沒有,除了一些惡劣的天氣和糟糕的關機效果之外,您認為 NXP 有什麼讓 NXP 感到驚訝的呢?是不是讓你感到驚訝?是定價嗎?滿足了嗎?今年產銷差距如此之大,究竟有什麼驚喜?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Vivek, I mean, very transparently and honestly, with the knowledge of today, of course, we could have predicted it with the knowledge at the time, no. So no, we didn't know.

    是的。 Vivek,我的意思是,非常透明和誠實,當然,根據今天的知識,我們可以用當時的知識預測它,不。所以不,我們不知道。

  • And now what you call surprises is what actually happened. A few things. One, clearly, the mix change to premium vehicles, which is an optimization to higher profit on the OEM side. It clearly is something we have not foreseen. I think nobody has anticipated that, and that has a significant impact on semiconductor consumption given that premium vehicles can easily have twice the semi content of a mass volume car.

    而現在你所說的驚喜就是實際發生的事情。一些東西。一,很明顯,混合動力車向高端車型轉變,這是對 OEM 方面更高利潤的優化。這顯然是我們沒有預見到的。我認為沒有人預料到這一點,這對半導體消費產生了重大影響,因為高端汽車的半導體含量很容易達到大眾汽車的兩倍。

  • And on the same note, again, the xEV penetration, which I think is a result of the big focus in the growth on CO2 targets, but also a lot of government subsidies in various countries to boost actually more electric vehicles. Those 2 elements, so the mix to premium and the much stronger penetration or faster penetration of xEVs, those have significant positive impacts on the content increase for semiconductors.

    同樣,xEV 的普及率,我認為這是對二氧化碳目標增長的高度關注的結果,也是各國政府為推動更多電動汽車提供的大量補貼的結果。這兩個要素,即優質混合動力和 xEV 的更強滲透或更快滲透,對半導體含量的增加具有顯著的積極影響。

  • So even if the car production is flat, the content goes up massively. Again, think about that both of these elements, each one on its own right, are potentially bringing the semi content of a car to a factor of 2x. So that's -- I mean this is just outstripping any car production by far.

    因此,即使汽車產量持平,內容也會大幅增加。再一次考慮一下,這兩個元素,每一個都各自獨立,有可能將汽車的半含量提高到 2 倍。所以那是 - 我的意思是這遠遠超過了任何汽車產量。

  • The third element, which I would say, I use your language, surprised us, I would rather say we gained more insight, is the enormous depth and complexity of the extended automotive supply chain, which means how many stages and companies sometimes are between us after we ship a product before that product ends up in a car.

    第三個元素,我想說,我用你的語言,讓我們感到驚訝,我寧願說我們獲得了更多的洞察力,是擴展汽車供應鏈的巨大深度和復雜性,這意味著我們之間有時有多少階段和公司在我們運送產品之後,該產品最終進入汽車。

  • And if that supply chain is enormously depleted, as it has been the case after 2019 and 2020, it becomes incredibly dysfunctional. And we are still in the process of refilling that supply chain just to normalized levels. So really important, this is not about building any strategic inventory. It's just getting back to more normalized levels, which allow for proper operation of that supply chain. And that we didn't see, either.

    如果該供應鏈極度枯竭,就像 2019 年和 2020 年之後的情況一樣,它就會變得異常功能失調。我們仍在將供應鏈重新填充到正常水平。非常重要,這與建立任何戰略庫存無關。它只是恢復到更正常的水平,這允許該供應鏈的正常運行。我們也沒有看到。

  • I would say we had no idea how far it has been depleted, how deep it has been depleted nor how deep it is, which means how much elasticity is in there to be refilled in the first place to make it -- to try to make it functional. Again, it is still dysfunctional at this stage.

    我會說我們不知道它已經耗盡了多遠,它已經耗盡了多深,或者它有多深,這意味著有多少彈性需要首先重新填充以製造它 - 嘗試製造它的功能。同樣,在這個階段它仍然功能失調。

  • Vivek Arya - Director

    Vivek Arya - Director

  • Got it. And for my follow-up, Kurt, just to kind of continue that line of discussion. So you mentioned over the last few years that the content delta right between units and sales have been -- for the industry has been about 10 points with NXP doing better. If I look at the current IHS production forecast for next year, and I know they keep on changing all the time. But right now, it's about 10% to 11% unit growth. So assuming that happens, what is the crystal ball thing in terms of that rough delta for the industry next year? Do you think it will be that at that 10 point? Or it will be closer right to the much bigger number we saw this year?

    知道了。對於我的後續工作,Kurt,只是為了繼續討論。因此,您在過去幾年中提到,單位和銷售額之間的內容增量一直是——對於整個行業來說,恩智浦做得更好,大約有 10 個百分點。如果我查看當前 IHS 明年的生產預測,我知道它們一直在變化。但現在,單位增長率約為 10% 到 11%。因此,假設發生這種情況,就明年該行業的粗略增量而言,水晶球是什麼?你認為那會是那個 10 點嗎?或者它會更接近我們今年看到的更大的數字?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, Vivek. So first of all, you just mentioned another very important element, which is obviously our performance in all of this. I mean what I described to your earlier question was is how we think the industry surprised us all. The third element clearly is the NXP-specific company, specific content gains where we grew share, which makes it even faster. Now how that all goes into what it means for the next year and the next years from both a content growth perspective as well as an NXP-specific revenue growth perspective, I just asked you to wait for a week -- next week when we have our Investor Day in New York. We will give you the detail you're looking for. So we will guide for the next 3 years, both how we think the semi market and auto is going to develop as well as our performance relative to that. So please hold your horses until next week.

    是的,維維克。所以首先,你剛才提到了另一個非常重要的因素,這顯然是我們在這一切中的表現。我的意思是我對你之前的問題所描述的是我們認為這個行業如何讓我們所有人感到驚訝。第三個要素顯然是恩智浦特定的公司,在我們增加份額的地方獲得特定的內容,這使它更快。現在從內容增長的角度和恩智浦特定的收入增長角度來看,這一切如何影響明年和未來幾年的意義,我只是讓你等一周——下週我們有我們在紐約的投資者日。我們將為您提供您正在尋找的詳細信息。因此,我們將指導未來 3 年,包括我們認為半成品市場和汽車市場將如何發展以及我們相對於這方面的表現。所以請保持你的馬直到下週。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have a question from John Pitzer.

    我們有一個來自約翰·皮策的問題。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Congratulations on the solid results. Kurt, I think we all appreciate all the details you gave in your opening comments about the complexity around the auto supply chain. I'm kind of curious if you could spend a couple of minutes just talking about your ability to grow supply from here, both internally and externally, both on the wafer side and on the back end on test. I'm assuming that the nice sequential jump in autos means that some of the weather events in the first half of the year have reversed themselves. But specifically, as you look over the next several quarters, would you expect your ability to grow supply to be relatively linear? Or is it going to be chunky? And is there a point in time where your ability to grow supply kind of accelerates in 2022?

    祝賀你取得了堅實的成果。庫爾特,我想我們都很欣賞你在開場白中關於汽車供應鏈複雜性的所有細節。我有點好奇你是否可以花幾分鐘時間來談談你從這裡增加供應的能力,無論是內部還是外部,無論是在晶圓側還是在測試的後端。我假設汽車行業的良好連續增長意味著今年上半年的一些天氣事件已經發生逆轉。但具體而言,當您展望未來幾個季度時,您是否期望您增加供應的能力相對線性?或者它會變得厚實嗎?到 2022 年,您增加供應的能力是否會在某個時間點加速?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Thanks, John. Let me give you a few pieces on this. The one is indeed the negative impact from the (technical difficulty), which we had some, I think, early Q2 in Texas, is indeed behind us. So I mean, you just put that to file both factories, which were impacted are running very much at pre-storm levels and we are good.

    是的。謝謝,約翰。讓我給你一些關於這個的。一個確實是(技術難度)的負面影響,我認為,在德克薩斯州的第二季度初,我們有一些負面影響,確實已經過去了。所以我的意思是,你只是把這兩個工廠都歸檔了,受影響的工廠都在風暴前的水平上運行,我們很好。

  • Another element I have to mention here because it has impact on the industry. You've seen that over summer there have been quite a few factory shutdowns of back-end test and assembly sites in Malaysia. I just want to highlight that we have been in a very disciplined position to organize and manage our own factories in such a way that our shutdowns were very immaterial. So we had a few days, but by and large, we had very little negative impact from those shutdowns on our revenue.

    另一個我必須在這裡提到的元素,因為它對行業有影響。您已經看到,整個夏天,馬來西亞的後端測試和組裝工廠關閉了很多工廠。我只想強調,我們在組織和管理我們自己的工廠方面一直處於非常有紀律的位置,因此我們的停工是非常無關緊要的。所以我們有幾天的時間,但總的來說,這些停工對我們的收入幾乎沒有負面影響。

  • So when you think about what we shipped in Q3, assume there was hardly any negative impact from COVID factory shutdowns from Southeast Asia and/or specifically Malaysia. Now going forward, we will clearly see improvements on the wafer side. We talked about earlier that we are entering into long-term supply commitments with our supply partners, and that's largely on the wafer side, which is going to start benefiting us next year, but also the years after. And again, this is in balance against the NCNR auto, which we are collecting from our customers.

    因此,當您考慮我們在第三季度出貨的產品時,假設東南亞和/或特別是馬來西亞的 COVID 工廠關閉幾乎沒有任何負面影響。現在展望未來,我們將清楚地看到晶圓方面的改進。我們之前談到,我們正在與我們的供應合作夥伴達成長期供應承諾,這主要是在晶圓方面,這將在明年開始使我們受益,而且在之後的幾年也將受益。再一次,這與我們從客戶那裡收集的 NCNR 汽車相平衡。

  • The back-end test and assembly, which largely is in-house for NXP, we, of course, put all the CapEx and all the investments in place to make sure that any wafer we get our hands around will also find enough capacity in-house to be tested and assembled into finished products. So think about the test and assembly increase in capacity as pretty gradual because it is something which we are putting in tune with the wafers coming in.

    後端測試和組裝,很大程度上是恩智浦內部的,當然,我們將所有資本支出和所有投資都到位,以確保我們得到的任何晶圓也能在-房屋進行測試並組裝成成品。因此,將測試和組裝能力的增加視為相當漸進的,因為這是我們正在與晶圓進入同步的東西。

  • On the wafer side, it is in a way more discrete, but it's not jumpy, John, because we have obviously several wafer suppliers, and they don't improve all at the same time. So from that perspective, what comes out into the revenue think about something which is gradual, which doesn't have huge step functions at any specific point in time. However, the result of all of this is that clearly, our supply capability, as it has done through this year, will continue to grow also through next year.

    在晶圓方面,它在某種程度上更加離散,但並不緊張,約翰,因為我們顯然有幾個晶圓供應商,而且他們並沒有同時改進。因此,從這個角度來看,收入中產生的東西是漸進的,在任何特定時間點都沒有巨大的階梯函數。然而,所有這一切的結果是,很明顯,我們的供應能力,就像今年所做的那樣,到明年也將繼續增長。

  • Now finally, I should say this is clearly not a comment which is in anyway or form specific to automotive, this is a broad comment because the supply shortages, which we are facing, is across all markets. We discussed earlier briefly mobile. Anyway, anybody knows about automotive. But we have the same negative impact on our industrial and IoT business and partially in the Comms Infra business. So all of these improvements will help and will support revenue growth across all of our end market segments.

    最後,我應該說這顯然不是一個無論如何或特定於汽車的評論,這是一個廣泛的評論,因為我們面臨的供應短缺遍及所有市場。我們之前簡要討論過移動。無論如何,任何人都知道汽車。但我們對我們的工業和物聯網業務以及部分通信基礎設施業務產生了同樣的負面影響。因此,所有這些改進都將有助於並將支持我們所有終端細分市場的收入增長。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • That's really helpful color, Kurt. And then maybe for my follow-on, one for Bill. First, congratulations, looking forward to working with you in your new role. I'm just kind of curious on the gross margin line. Another really solid gross margin quarter. Given some of the logistic inflationary costs out there, oftentimes it's hard to within a quarter to get all of that right relative to pricing. Was there anything holding back gross margins from a cost side in the quarter? And I guess more importantly, as you look out across these LTAs, can you help us understand how they're being constructed relative to kind of your gross margin goal? I would assume it's much easier to price to value in this sort of environment. Does that mean we could see some tick-ups here in gross margins over the next several quarters?

    這真的很有幫助,庫爾特。然後也許是我的後續,比爾的一個。首先,祝賀您,期待在您的新崗位上與您合作。我只是對毛利率線有點好奇。另一個非常穩固的毛利率季度。考慮到一些物流通脹成本,通常很難在一個季度內獲得所有與定價相關的權利。本季度是否有任何因素阻礙了成本方面的毛利率?而且我想更重要的是,當您查看這些長期協議時,您能否幫助我們了解相對於您的毛利率目標而言,它們是如何構建的?我認為在這種環境下定價要容易得多。這是否意味著我們可以在接下來的幾個季度看到毛利率出現一些上升?

  • Bill Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Thank you for your question. Let me give a bigger picture on the margin and more color about it. So as mentioned on our previous calls, our gross margin had improved drastically versus last year, driven by the higher volumes and improved internal utilizations from our factories. For example, if I try to remember, I think Q3 utilizations last year were in the mid-60s, and today we're in the high-90s. And from a guidance standpoint, as you saw, we were slightly better from a quarter-over-quarter basis by 20, 30 bps related to the improved product mix.

    是的。謝謝你的問題。讓我在頁邊空白處給出一個更大的圖片,並給它更多的顏色。因此,正如我們之前的電話會議所述,我們的毛利率與去年相比大幅提高,這是由於我們工廠的產量增加和內部利用率提高。例如,如果我試著記住,我認為去年第三季度的利用率在 60 年代中期,而今天我們處於 90 年代的高位。正如您所看到的,從指導的角度來看,與改進的產品組合相關,我們的季度環比略好 20 到 30 個基點。

  • Now as we move forward over the next several quarters, it's going to be really difficult to have that additional fall-through on our internal factories. And basically, they're running full out, I'd say.

    現在,隨著我們在接下來的幾個季度中前進,我們的內部工廠很難再出現額外的失敗。基本上,我會說,它們已經用完了。

  • To address your question on pricing, we are only passing on the increases of the input costs from our suppliers to our customers and we're not adding any of our margins in this process as we value our long-term relationships with our customers, I'd say. And we're really equally sharing the pain together.

    為了解決您關於定價的問題,我們只是將供應商的投入成本增加轉嫁給我們的客戶,我們不會在此過程中增加任何利潤,因為我們重視與客戶的長期關係,我會說。我們真的平等地共同分擔痛苦。

  • As you could see in Q4, we are guiding our gross margins to be flat quarter-over-quarter. And any additional margin expansion, I'd say that come in the short term would be driven by that continued product mix. And more longer term will be really driven by the expansion of our new NPIs. I'd say overall, we're very proud of achieving these levels, and we look forward to continue delivering toward that higher end financial stated model of 57% as we go forward.

    正如您在第四季度所看到的,我們正在引導我們的毛利率與上一季度持平。任何額外的利潤率擴張,我認為短期內都會受到持續產品組合的推動。我們的新 NPI 的擴張將真正推動更長期的發展。我想說總體而言,我們為達到這些水平感到非常自豪,我們期待在前進的過程中繼續實現 57% 的高端財務報表模型。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Stacy Rasgon.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Stacy Rasgon。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to follow-up on the pricing question. I know you are not trying to extract more. But I mean to play devil's advocate a little bit, like given the shortages out there, why not? I mean you're in a period of time right now where the supply thing is probably tighter than it ever has than it ever will be, and there's demand for your products that's off the chart. You're walking customers in like at this point like why is this not the time even on a selective basis to try to extract more, especially given it seems like some of your peers actually are going down that path. Like why not you guys?

    我想跟進定價問題。我知道你不是想提取更多。但我的意思是扮演魔鬼的擁護者,就像考慮到那裡的短缺一樣,為什麼不呢?我的意思是你現在處於供應可能比以往任何時候都更加緊張的時期,並且對你的產品的需求超出了圖表。在這一點上,您正在引導客戶,例如為什麼現在甚至不是有選擇地嘗試提取更多信息的時候,尤其是考慮到您的某些同行似乎實際上正在走這條路。就像你們為什麼不一樣?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Hi, Stacy. There is a very clear answer to this, which is we are not in the commodity business. The very, very vast majority of our portfolio is application-specific. And with that portfolio, we are in very deep longer-term relationships with our customers. So what we do is, as Bill said, we pass on the input cost, which is already, in some cases, a pretty significant element to digest for our customers. But we want to be transparent and we want to have long-term relationships, which are built on trust with our customers. And in that context, we absolutely consider it the right thing to pass on the input cost, but not use it to pad on our margins.

    是的。嗨,斯泰西。對此有一個非常明確的答案,那就是我們不從事商品業務。我們產品組合中的絕大多數都是特定於應用程序的。通過該產品組合,我們與客戶建立了非常深厚的長期關係。因此,正如比爾所說,我們所做的是轉嫁投入成本,在某些情況下,這已經是我們客戶需要消化的一個非常重要的因素。但我們希望保持透明,我們希望建立長期的關係,這種關係建立在與客戶的信任之上。在這種情況下,我們絕對認為傳遞投入成本是正確的做法,而不是用它來彌補我們的利潤。

  • I would personally say from being in different markets in the past, in a commodity market that works different, but that's not the kind of market environment we are moving in. And I'm very, very sure that this will pay off positively in the long term relative to the customer relations, which we need to continue to build our business.

    我個人會說,過去在不同的市場,在一個運作不同的商品市場,但這不是我們正在進入的那種市場環境。我非常非常肯定這將在長期相對於客戶關係,我們需要繼續建立我們的業務。

  • In that context, it is also important to note that the whole environment clearly has a lot of input costs, which is going up for our customers. I mean it's not just on semis. A lot of other things are also moving. So it's a tough environment for all the participants, where I think consistency, transparency and trust into the long-term relationships is a big value, and that's something where we do differentiate.

    在這種情況下,同樣重要的是要注意整個環境顯然有很多投入成本,這對我們的客戶來說正在上升。我的意思是這不僅僅是半決賽。許多其他的事情也在發生變化。所以對於所有參與者來說,這是一個艱難的環境,我認為長期關係的一致性、透明度和信任是一個很大的價值,這就是我們與眾不同的地方。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • Got it. I guess for my follow-up, even to follow-up on that a little bit. The historical pricing practices, at least at a high level, especially in automotive, was to have long-term price downs that were sort of built into the contracts and you'd be sort of fighting that every year. I guess understanding that we're maybe coming off a higher base now, at least on raising price because of the input cost increases, do you foresee like a similar type of long-term kind of pricing behavior that are built into the long-term contracts? Are you still going to be fighting a couple of hundred basis points of margin compression every year just off the higher base like as part of these long-term contracts? Or is the general pricing structure like long term these contracts different than it was in the past?

    知道了。我想我的跟進,甚至跟進一點。歷史上的定價做法,至少在較高水平上,尤其是在汽車領域,是在合同中內置的長期降價,你每年都在與這種情況作鬥爭。我想了解我們現在可能正在脫離更高的基數,至少在由於投入成本增加而提高價格時,您是否預見到類似類型的長期定價行為內置於長期合同?作為這些長期合同的一部分,您是否仍將每年在較高的基礎上與數百個基點的保證金壓縮作鬥爭?或者這些合同的一般定價結構是否與過去不同?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, Stacy. That's indeed the other side of this discussion. I mean I can't discuss any customer or very segment-specific trends here. But the overall situation indeed is a reset, and that is important and positive. And with reset, what I mean is that the step function which we have to take, is something which is here too large. And that comes with -- I think I made the comment earlier with the realization of all the industries we are serving, that's not just for automotive, of how important semiconductors are. It just represents a different value to them. And from that perspective, I think we make a step here, which is a reset, which is here to stay. How that goes then in individual cases or individual prices year-on-year is hard to anticipate, but I don't think it will go backwards.

    是的,斯泰西。這確實是這個討論的另一面。我的意思是我不能在這裡討論任何客戶或非常特定於細分市場的趨勢。但總體形勢確實是一個重置,這是重要和積極的。對於重置,我的意思是我們必須採用的階躍函數在這裡太大了。隨之而來的是——我想我早些時候發表了評論,意識到我們所服務的所有行業,不僅僅是汽車行業,還有半導體的重要性。它只是代表了他們不同的價值。從這個角度來看,我認為我們在這裡邁出了一步,這是一個重置,它會一直存在。很難預料個別情況或個別價格的同比情況如何,但我認為它不會倒退。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is from William Stein.

    您的下一個問題來自威廉斯坦。

  • William Stein - MD

    William Stein - MD

  • First, I think you just spoke about this a moment ago. But can you talk about the magnitude and duration of your purchase commitments to foundry and your customer purchase commitments to NXP?

    首先,我想你剛才談到了這個。但是,您能否談談您對代工廠的採購承諾以及您對恩智浦的客戶採購承諾的規模和持續時間?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, Bill will fill in maybe with a bit more detail. But I'd say, in general, it really varies. I mean, we have some of them on the NCNR side, which is the customer orders. They would typically easily cover next year, so now getting an order which stretches all the way until the end of next year.

    好吧,比爾可能會填寫更多細節。但我想說,總的來說,它確實各不相同。我的意思是,我們在 NCNR 方面有一些,即客戶訂單。他們通常很容易覆蓋明年,所以現在得到的訂單一直延伸到明年年底。

  • If you think then on the other side, which is the agreements with our foundry and supply partners, I think we actually published a new number, which if I remember right, is between $4.3 billion and $4.4 billion of agreed and signed supply commitments, which we have entered into with our supplier base. The vast majority of that is obviously in wafers. But mind you, this is not just for 1 year. This stretches out over multiple years to come. $4.4 billion, to give you a feel.

    如果你認為另一方面,即與我們的代工和供應合作夥伴的協議,我認為我們實際上發布了一個新數字,如果我沒記錯的話,是在 43 億美元到 44 億美元之間商定和簽署的供應承諾,其中我們已經進入了我們的供應商基礎。其中絕大多數顯然是在晶圓中。但請注意,這不僅僅是 1 年。這將持續多年。 44億美元,給你一個感覺。

  • William Stein - MD

    William Stein - MD

  • That helps. And Bill, I want to offer some congratulations on your new role. Of course, you have some pretty big shoes to fill, given Peter's very strong performance and the company's strong performance in the last 10 years or so. I'm hoping you might give us a preview of what you might say next week, at least in terms of your priorities as the new CFO.

    這有幫助。還有比爾,我想對你的新角色表示祝賀。當然,鑑於彼得非常出色的表現以及公司在過去 10 年左右的強勁表現,你有一些相當大的鞋子需要填補。我希望你能給我們預覽一下你下周可能會說的話,至少在你作為新首席財務官的優先事項方面。

  • Bill Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Thank you for your question. First off, I'm very honored and thankful for the role. I've been in the semi industry for about 20 years. Prior to NXP, I've worked with Fairchild, LSI, Agere Systems. And really no change. As you have to remember, I've been with NXP for about 8 years supporting the company's financial strategy alongside with Peter, Kurt and Jeff and the entire management team.

    是的。謝謝你的問題。首先,我非常榮幸和感謝這個角色。我在半導體行業工作了大約 20 年。在加入 NXP 之前,我曾在 Fairchild、LSI、Agere Systems 工作過。而且真的沒有變化。您必須記住,我已經在 NXP 工作了大約 8 年,與 Peter、Kurt 和 Jeff 以及整個管理團隊一起支持公司的財務戰略。

  • I'd say my style is a bit different than Peter's, where principles are the same focus on delivering, as you mentioned, these commitments and driving long-term value to our customers and employees and shareholders. Related to Analyst Day, yes, I'll share that next week related to our long-term financial model. But we really like to save that for next week and not address that in this call.

    我想說我的風格與彼得的風格有點不同,彼得的原則同樣側重於交付這些承諾,並為我們的客戶、員工和股東創造長期價值。與分析師日相關,是的,我將在下週分享與我們的長期財務模型相關的內容。但我們真的很想把它留到下週,而不是在這次電話會議中解決這個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have a question from Chris Caso.

    我們有一個來自 Chris Caso 的問題。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • First question, I wonder if I could just ask about those long-term agreements that you're signing with your customers now. Can you tell us what sort of commitments have your customers made to you under those agreements? And it sounds like you're using those agreements from your customers to backstop the agreements that you're making with your suppliers. Is that for specific volume commitments over a certain amount of time? And is pricing committed to in those agreements as well such that you have visibility on both volume and pricing?

    第一個問題,我想知道我是否可以問一下您現在與客戶簽署的那些長期協議。您能否告訴我們您的客戶根據這些協議對您做出了哪些承諾?聽起來您正在使用客戶的這些協議來支持您與供應商達成的協議。這是針對特定時間段內的特定數量承諾嗎?並且這些協議中是否也承諾定價,以便您對數量和定價都有了解?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • So I really can't go into great detail on this, as you will understand, Chris. But the headline is indeed in line with what you are saying. Those customer agreements would typically cover volume and price for, say, for example, a period of until end of next calendar year, and they even fix it by quarter. So it's not just one number for the whole year. But in many cases, it even goes to binding it 2 quarters.

    所以我真的不能詳細說明這一點,你會明白的,克里斯。但標題確實與你所說的一致。這些客戶協議通常會涵蓋例如直到下一個日曆年年底的一段時間內的數量和價格,他們甚至會按季度確定。所以這不僅僅是一個全年的數字。但在許多情況下,它甚至會將其綁定 2 個季度。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • Very helpful. And if I could follow-up on pricing as well. And clearly, over the past couple of quarters you've been passing along, as you said, those price increases you've gotten from suppliers. Can you give us a sense of the magnitude of the pricing benefit you've seen out of the sort of 26% year-on-year increase [you seen on the] revenue. How substantial has price been in that calculation? And then as you go forward, are you expecting as you go into next year, there's still to be a pricing tailwind as the input costs rise.

    很有幫助。如果我也可以跟進定價。很明顯,在過去的幾個季度裡,正如你所說,你從供應商那裡得到的價格上漲。您能否告訴我們您從收入同比增長 26% 中看到的定價收益的幅度。在這個計算中價格有多大?然後,隨著您的前進,您是否期望進入明年,隨著投入成本的上升,仍然會有定價的順風。

  • Bill Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, generally, as we discussed before, we will continue to match the rising input costs with adjusting the prices accordingly such that, yes, since input costs will continue to go up also next year, that will also continue to be pricing adjustments into next year in general terms.

    嗯,一般來說,正如我們之前討論過的,我們將繼續匹配不斷上漲的投入成本和相應地調整價格,是的,因為明年投入成本也將繼續上漲,這也將繼續成為明年的定價調整一般而言,年份。

  • For the rest of your question, I really cannot and don't want to go into greater detail in how much is what piece. It's really just important that the leading concept and philosophy of all of this is that the price increase is just matching the input cost increase and that's it. But that is something which indeed we have this year and which is going to follow us next year, too.

    對於你剩下的問題,我真的不能也不想更詳細地說明什麼是多少。重要的是,所有這一切的主要概念和理念是價格上漲恰好與投入成本增加相匹配,僅此而已。但這確實是我們今年擁有的東西,明年也將跟隨我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from Blayne Curtis.

    下一個問題來自 Blayne Curtis。

  • Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • Also my congrats to Peter and Bill as well. Just going back on the auto side. I just wanted to be clear. So you've heard from some other companies that they are seeing their customers start to be more selective, trying to get kits together. You -- thanks for all the detail occurred on that supply chain seems very complex. So I'm just kind of curious, so are you seeing that same behavior maybe seeing offsetting strength elsewhere? Or are you a bit different given the company specific, the weather in Texas, et cetera, and some of the secular growth that you're not seeing that selective behavior in certain parts?

    我也祝賀彼得和比爾。只是回到汽車方面。我只是想清楚一點。所以你從其他一些公司那裡聽說,他們看到他們的客戶開始變得更有選擇性,試圖將工具包放在一起。您 - 感謝該供應鏈上發生的所有細節似乎非常複雜。所以我只是有點好奇,你是否看到同樣的行為可能會在其他地方看到抵消力量?或者考慮到公司的具體情況、德克薩斯州的天氣等等,以及一些長期增長,你在某些地方沒有看到這種選擇性行為,你是否有點不同?

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Blayne, I think what you tried to ask me is, am I seeing a slowdown? And the clear answer is no. We absolutely don't see a slowdown. And you can imagine that especially the car companies with a pretty significantly negative impact to their car production numbers of this year and the ambition to grow them next year by, I don't know, 10-plus percent over this year, they clearly need more semiconductors. And that is not limited to 1 product or 1 technology. I think I also made the very open comment earlier that 75% of the product portfolio in our automotive business still has a lead time of above 52 weeks. I think that says it all.

    Blayne,我想你想問我的是,我看到減速了嗎?明確的答案是否定的。我們絕對沒有看到放緩。你可以想像,尤其是那些對其今年的汽車產量產生相當顯著負面影響的汽車公司,以及明年將其增長的雄心壯志,我不知道,比今年增長 10% 以上,他們顯然需要更多的半導體。這不僅限於一種產品或一種技術。我想我之前也發表了非常公開的評論,即我們汽車業務中 75% 的產品組合仍有超過 52 週的交貨時間。我認為這一切都說。

  • Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • Maybe you could just -- no one asked on the industrial IoT. Maybe just kind of a discussion about what the areas of strength are for you? And maybe you just describe the supply chain as well for the back half of the year here? Is it just as tight? That would be helpful.

    也許你可以——沒有人問過工業物聯網。也許只是討論一下你的優勢領域是什麼?也許您也只是在這裡描述了下半年的供應鏈?一樣緊嗎?那會很有幫助。

  • Bill Betz - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill Betz - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Blayne. It is very tight, too. I would say no difference to automotive. Also, by the way, the impact of not shipping enough product is at least as significant as in automotive. It just catches less headlines in newspapers. But if you think about the impact on industrial automation, which is huge machinery, which cannot be built if there is not enough semiconductor supply or in the smart home, it's equally drastic as it is in automotive, just catching less headlines.

    是的,布萊恩。它也很緊。我會說汽車沒有區別。此外,順便說一句,沒有運送足夠的產品的影響至少與汽車一樣重要。它只是在報紙上的頭條新聞較少。但是,如果您考慮對工業自動化的影響,這是一種巨大的機械,如果沒有足夠的半導體供應或智能家居就無法製造,它與汽車一樣劇烈,只是很少登上頭條。

  • Now our big differentiator more and more is our capability to offer complete solutions, complete solutions around the processor. We've had that leadership in a very wide range and portfolio of processing solutions, into industrial, but it's now very nicely complemented by connectivity, security and analog attach, which really differentiates us from our competitors. I would dare to say it's a very unrivaled position and offering here, which by the way is also going to be very much in the spotlight of our Investor Day next week. To give you much more detail what we have and why we think it makes us grow so much in the time to come.

    現在,我們的最大差異化越來越在於我們能夠提供完整的解決方案,圍繞處理器的完整解決方案。我們在工業領域的各種處理解決方案和產品組合中擁有領先地位,但現在連接性、安全性和模擬連接得到了很好的補充,這確實使我們與競爭對手區分開來。我敢說這是一個非常無與倫比的職位和產品,順便說一句,這也將成為我們下週投資者日的焦點。為您提供更多詳細信息,以及為什麼我們認為它使我們在未來的時間裡成長如此之多。

  • Now from a supply chain or channel perspective, a lot of that business indeed is going through distribution, which is because it goes to thousands, literally thousands of small customers, and this is exactly why the solution capability of NXP makes such a big difference because many of these companies, which we are serving there through distribution don't have the capability themselves to deal with the complexity of these connected edge applications. So when and if we can offer them a complete solution, then that has a huge advantage for both time to market, but also from an R&D perspective for them. That's actually what I think is really a very, very significant differentiator for us.

    現在從供應鍊或渠道的角度來看,很多業務確實是通過分銷,這是因為它涉及到成千上萬的小客戶,這正是恩智浦的解決方案能力如此重要的原因,因為我們通過分銷為這些公司提供服務的許多公司本身並沒有能力處理這些連接的邊緣應用程序的複雜性。因此,如果我們能夠為他們提供完整的解決方案,那麼無論從上市時間還是從研發角度來看,這對他們來說都具有巨大的優勢。這實際上是我認為對我們來說非常非常重要的差異化因素。

  • Now another element in the equation is we do have a relatively strong exposure to China. So if you think about the industrial business, a lot is going through distribution and a lot is going into China. And just to anticipate the question, we do not see a slowdown there in China. But again, mind you, it's also that we are -- we continue to be supply kept. So as I said earlier, also in Industrial, we could certainly run higher revenues if only we have more supply. Good news is also there, our supply capability, as we discussed with John earlier is improving every month so that over time, also there we hopefully get into a better place.

    現在等式中的另一個因素是我們確實對中國有相對較強的敞口。所以如果你考慮工業業務,很多東西都在通過分銷,很多東西都進入了中國。只是為了預測這個問題,我們沒有看到中國經濟放緩。但同樣,請注意,這也是我們 - 我們繼續保持供應。因此,正如我之前所說,同樣在工業領域,如果我們有更多的供應,我們當然可以獲得更高的收入。好消息也在那裡,正如我們之前與約翰討論的那樣,我們的供應能力每個月都在提高,因此隨著時間的推移,我們也希望能進入一個更好的地方。

  • Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

    Jeff Palmer - VP of IR

  • We'll take 1 last call.

    我們將接聽最後一個電話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Okay. And our last question is from CJ Muse.

    好的。我們的最後一個問題來自 CJ Muse。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I guess first question for you, Kurt. In your prepared remarks, you talked about auto supply demand balance probably not achieved until 2023. And so curious, as you contemplate that, what kind of assumptions are you making in terms of what kind of the future inventory management will look like both at the Tier 1s and OEMs? I imagine there's more of a just in case as opposed to just in time. So I would love to hear your thoughts on kind of that evolution that is likely coming ahead for the auto industry.

    我想你的第一個問題,庫爾特。在你準備好的評論中,你談到了汽車供需平衡可能要到 2023 年才能實現。所以很好奇,當你考慮到這一點時,你對未來的庫存管理會是什麼樣子做出什麼樣的假設一級和原始設備製造商?我想有更多的以防萬一,而不是及時。因此,我很想听聽您對汽車行業可能會出現的那種演變的看法。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, CJ. Absolutely. I did indeed say that I don't think there is, broadly speaking, enough supply next year to already start building those additional inventories because that's exactly what you're asking for. Yes, we clearly see a demand by the OEMs to the Tier 1s and other participants in the extended supply chain, explicitly not the semi companies, but in between, between us and the OEMs, the demand and the requirements to build more inventory. That typical -- if you want to size this, a typical ask is somewhere between 3 and 6 months, sometimes longer. And it has a very simple reasoning. That's the manufacturing cycle time for a semiconductor product.

    是的,CJ。絕對地。我確實說過,從廣義上講,我認為明年沒有足夠的供應已經開始建立這些額外的庫存,因為這正是你所要求的。是的,我們清楚地看到原始設備製造商對一級供應商和擴展供應鏈中的其他參與者的需求,顯然不是半導體公司,而是在我們和原始設備製造商之間,建立更多庫存的需求和要求。那個典型的——如果你想調整這個大小,一個典型的要求是在 3 到 6 個月之間,有時甚至更長。它有一個非常簡單的推理。這就是半導體產品的製造週期。

  • So in a very simple way, they say, okay, if this is the additional inventory, then that puts us maybe on the safe side for more flexibility. And yes, this is something which I don't see the industry has the capability to build that next year, but that's been for '23.

    因此,他們以一種非常簡單的方式說,好吧,如果這是額外的庫存,那麼這可能會讓我們更安全,以獲得更大的靈活性。是的,這是我不認為該行業有能力在明年建立的東西,但那是 23 年的事情。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Very helpful. And then I guess my follow-up question. Obviously, we've seen positive mix shift on the EV side, which you spoke to earlier. I'm curious, as we're seeing more and more OEMs target kind of full platforms moving over to EV or hybrid as well, curious how that has kind of played with your full solution, which kind of, I would think, would fit nicely into that. I would love to hear your thoughts there.

    很有幫助。然後我猜我的後續問題。顯然,我們已經看到電動汽車方面的積極混合轉變,您之前談到過。我很好奇,因為我們看到越來越多的原始設備製造商將完整平台的目標轉向電動汽車或混合動力車,很好奇這如何與您的完整解決方案一起發揮作用,我認為哪種適合很好地融入其中。我很想听聽你的想法。

  • Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Kurt Sievers - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • We love it, CJ. I mean, we talked a lot about our capability from, actually, also from a solution perspective and battery management solutions, which is greatly benefiting from this faster and accelerated penetration. We will open the kimono next week a little bit more in the Investor Day and give you insight in what else we do in electrification because we are not only with PMS exposed to this accelerated trend. So it's a very good thing for NXP and it goes beyond battery management, while battery management itself obviously is benefiting very greatly.

    我們喜歡它,CJ。我的意思是,我們實際上從解決方案的角度和電池管理解決方案的角度談論了我們的能力,這極大地受益於這種更快和加速的滲透。我們將在下週的投資者日進一步開放和服,讓您了解我們在電氣化方面還做了些什麼,因為我們不僅 PMS 面臨這種加速趨勢。所以這對恩智浦來說是一件非常好的事情,它超越了電池管理,而電池管理本身顯然受益匪淺。

  • Jeff, I guess, with this, we come to the end of the call, which maybe gets me in a position just to summarize very briefly. I mean it's a turbulent time out there, but I'm really proud that we could deliver what I think is a very good quarter 3, have a strong guidance into quarter 4. But even more so, we continue to have excellent momentum also into next year, which means continued strong demand across our end markets. No inventory build-out there. And we see that our supply capability is getting better and better and better to start matching that demand in the future.

    傑夫,我想,這樣,我們就結束了通話,這可能讓我能夠非常簡要地總結一下。我的意思是這是一個動蕩的時期,但我真的很自豪我們能夠提供我認為非常好的第 3 季度,在第 4 季度有強有力的指導。但更重要的是,我們繼續保持良好的勢頭明年,這意味著我們終端市場的需求將持續強勁。那裡沒有庫存增加。我們看到我們的供應能力越來越好,越來越好地開始匹配未來的需求。

  • So with that, I thank you very much for your attendance today, and I hope to hear and see quite a few of you also next week when we have our much more extended Investor Day in New York. Thank you.

    因此,我非常感謝你們今天的出席,我希望下週我們在紐約舉行更長的投資者日時也能聽到和看到你們中的很多人。謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。