恩智浦 (NXPI) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Q1 2021 NXP Semiconductors Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加恩智浦半導體 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Jeff Palmer from NXP.

現在我想將會議交給主持人、來自恩智浦的 Jeff Palmer 先生。

Thank you, Renz, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the NXP Semiconductors First Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. With me on the call today is Kurt Sievers, NXP's President and CEO; and Peter Kelly, our CFO. The call today is being recorded and will be available for replay from our corporate website.

謝謝你，倫茲，大家早安。歡迎參加恩智浦半導體 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是恩智浦總裁兼執行長 Kurt Sievers。和我們的財務長彼得凱利。今天的通話正在進行錄音，並將可在我們的公司網站上重播。

Today's call will include forward-looking statements that include -- involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, the macroeconomic impact on the specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products and our expectations for the financial results for the second quarter of 2021. Please be reminded that NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements. For a full disclosure of forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release today.

今天的電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，其中包括—涉及可能導致恩智浦業績與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於有關 COVID-19 大流行對我們業務的持續影響、對我們經營的特定終端市場的宏觀經濟影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們的預期的聲明2021年第二季的財務表現。有關前瞻性陳述的完整披露，請參閱我們今天的新聞稿。

Additionally, we'll refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are driven primarily by discrete events and that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance. Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our first quarter 2021 earnings press release, which will be furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K and is available on NXP's website in the Investor Relations section at nxp.com.

此外，我們將參考某些非公認會計原則財務指標，這些指標主要由離散事件驅動，管理階層認為與恩智浦的基本核心營運績效沒有直接關係。根據G 條例，恩智浦在2021 年第一季財報新聞稿中提供了非GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的GAAP 指標的調節表，該新聞稿將透過8-K 表格提交給SEC，並可在恩智浦網站上取得在 nxp.com 的投資者關係部分。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Kurt. Kurt, your call.

現在我想把電話轉給庫爾特。庫爾特，你的決定。

Yes. Thanks very, very much, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. We really appreciate you joining our call today.

是的。非常非常感謝傑夫，大家早安。我們非常感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

Today, I will review our quarter 1 results and discuss our guidance for Q2. Furthermore, I will provide an updated perspective on how we view the current supply/demand environment, including the recovery of our 2 Austin-based facilities which were hit by the severe winter storm in February. And additionally, I will discuss our efforts for sustainability.

今天，我將回顧我們第一季的業績並討論我們對第二季的指導。此外，我將提供關於我們如何看待當前供需環境的最新觀點，包括我們位於奧斯汀的 2 個設施的恢復，這兩個設施在 2 月遭受了嚴重的冬季風暴的襲擊。此外，我將討論我們為永續發展所做的努力。

Now let me get started with quarter 1. Our results were better than the midpoint of our guidance with the contribution from the industrial and the communication infrastructure end markets both stronger than planned. At the same time, trends in the mobile and auto markets were generally in line with our expectations, with automotive being just slightly impacted by the severe winter storms in Texas.

現在讓我從第一季開始。同時，移動和汽車市場的趨勢總體符合我們的預期，其中汽車市場僅受到德克薩斯州嚴重冬季風暴的輕微影響。

Taken together, NXP delivered quarter 1 revenue of $2.57 billion, an increase of 27% year-over-year and $17 million above the midpoint of our guidance range. Non-GAAP operating margin in Q1 was a strong 30.9%, 600 basis points better than the year-ago period and about 50 basis points above the midpoint of guidance, driven both by improved mix and additional revenue.

總的來說，恩智浦第一季營收為 25.7 億美元，年成長 27%，比我們指引範圍的中位數高出 1,700 萬美元。第一季的非 GAAP 營業利潤率高達 30.9%，比去年同期高出 600 個基點，比指導中位數高出約 50 個基點，這得益於組合改善和額外收入。

Now let me turn to the specific trends in our focus end markets. In automotive, quarter 1 revenue was $1.23 billion, up 24% versus the year-ago period and about $13 million below our guidance. In industrial and IoT, our quarter 1 revenue was $571 million, up 52% versus the year-ago period and about $13 million better than our guidance. In mobile, quarter 1 revenue was $346 million, up 40% versus the year-ago period and in line with our guidance. Reconciling for the sale of the voice and audio business, which closed during quarter 1 2020, the underlying mobile end market growth was actually up a robust 46% year-over-year. And lastly, in communication infrastructure and other, quarter 1 revenue was $421 million, up 4% year-on-year and about $17 million better than our guidance.

現在讓我談談我們重點終端市場的具體趨勢。在汽車領域，第一季營收為 12.3 億美元，比去年同期成長 24%，比我們的指引低約 1,300 萬美元。在工業和物聯網領域，我們第一季的營收為 5.71 億美元，比去年同期成長 52%，比我們的指導高出約 1,300 萬美元。在行動領域，第一季營收為 3.46 億美元，比去年同期成長 40%，符合我們的指引。考慮到 2020 年第一季完成的語音和音訊業務的出售，行動終端市場的潛在成長實際上比去年同期強勁增長了 46%。最後，在通訊基礎設施和其他領域，第一季營收為 4.21 億美元，年增 4%，比我們的指導高出約 1,700 萬美元。

Now let me move to our outlook. We are guiding quarter 2 revenue at $2.57 billion, up about 40% versus the second quarter of 2020 within a range of up 38% to up 45% year-over-year. And from a sequential perspective, this is about flat at the midpoint versus the prior quarter.

現在讓我談談我們的展望。我們預計第二季營收為 25.7 億美元，較 2020 年第二季成長約 40%，年增 38% 至 45% 之間。從連續的角度來看，這一數字與上一季的中點持平。

At the midpoint, we anticipate the following trends in our business. Automotive is expected to be up in the upper 80% range versus quarter 2, 2020, and up in the low single digits versus quarter 1, '21. Industrial and IoT is expected to be up in the low 30% range year-over-year and flat versus quarter 1, '21. Mobile is expected to be up in the mid-30% range and flat versus quarter 1, 2021. And finally, communication infrastructure and other is expected to be down in the low teens percent range versus the same period a year ago and down in the mid-single-digit range on a sequential basis.

在中點，我們預期我們的業務將出現以下趨勢。與 2020 年第 2 季相比，汽車產業預計將成長 80% 以上，與 21 年第 1 季相比，預計將成長低個位數。工業和物聯網預計將年增 30%，與 21 年第一季持平。行動業務預計將成長 30% 左右，與 2021 年第一季相比持平。連續的中間個位數範圍。

Now at this point, let me turn to an update on the current supply/demand environment. As I had shared with you on our last earnings call, as many of our customers started to resume full production during Q3 of 2020, we were faced with the challenge to balance a very accelerated rate of customer orders versus a very tight, if not sold out, wafer supply situation.

現在，讓我談談目前供需環境的最新情況。正如我在上次財報電話會議上與您分享的那樣，隨著我們的許多客戶在2020 年第三季度開始全面恢復生產，我們面臨著平衡快速增長的客戶訂單與非常緊張（如果沒有售出）的挑戰。

While our foundry partners have attempted to address our needs, it really has not been enough, and we were supply constrained in quarter 1. This supply trend will continue through quarter 2, and our current expectation is we will face a tight supply environment for at least the remainder of 2021. We would also note that in the medium term, we have seen a significant increase in demand for our products, which is very consistent with our anticipated content gains and our design wins.

雖然我們的代工合作夥伴試圖滿足我們的需求，但這確實還不夠，我們在第一季的供應受到限制。一個供應緊張的環境。

In that very context, it is really insightful to compare to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. When we look at total current revenue levels compared to the prepandemic levels in 2019, we actually plan to ship nearly 20% more in the first half of 2021 versus the first half of 2019. And more specifically, in automotive, we plan to ship at least 20% more in the first half of 2021 versus the first half of 2019. And this is while IHS suggests a drop of 10% in car production over the very same period.

在這種背景下，與2019 年大流行前的水平進行比較確實很有洞察力。增加近20% 的出貨量。建議汽車領域的出貨量下降10%同一時期的產量。

And now going forward, we see our overall revenue in the second half of 2021 being stronger than the first half of this year. And against these trends, we continue to have low channel and low on-hand inventory, which we do not anticipate rebuilding this year. Our customers are responding by placing long-dated, noncancelable and nonreturnable order requests and we are making long-term strategic supply commitments to our partners in order to assure future supply.

現在展望未來，我們預計 2021 年下半年的整體收入將強於今年上半年。與這些趨勢相反，我們的通路和現有庫存仍然較低，預計今年不會重建。我們的客戶透過提出長期、不可取消和不可退貨的訂單請求來回應，我們正在向合作夥伴做出長期策略供應承諾，以確保未來的供應。

Against this challenging supply environment, we also had the very unfortunate and unexpected winter storms in Austin. And I am today pleased to share that our 2 wafer facilities in Austin are now fully back on line. And I would like to commend our manufacturing, our operations and our facilities teams for their superb effort and dedication to getting these 2 facilities back online in record time. Truly a job very well done.

在這種充滿挑戰的供應環境下，我們在奧斯汀還遭遇了非常不幸且意外的冬季風暴。今天我很高興地告訴大家，我們位於奧斯汀的 2 個晶圓工廠現已完全恢復生產。我要讚揚我們的製造、營運和設施團隊為使這兩個設施在創紀錄的時間內恢復正常運作所付出的巨大努力和奉獻精神。確實是一項非常出色的工作。

Notwithstanding the challenging supply environment or the natural disasters we faced, our results and guidance clearly validate the underlying long-term growth and profitability of our business. We acknowledge it has been a long process to deliver on our committed gross margin target. The next objective will be to demonstrate full year performance at the 55% gross margin target.

儘管我們面臨著充滿挑戰的供應環境或自然災害，但我們的業績和指導清楚地驗證了我們業務的潛在長期成長和獲利能力。我們承認，實現我們承諾的毛利率目標是一個漫長的過程。下一個目標是展示全年業績，達到 55% 的毛利率目標。

And furthermore, on a positive note of recognition, NXP was added to the S&P 500 Index, which is a strong validation of a lot of hard work the entire NXP team has undertaken to drive growth, improve profitability and enhance free cash flow.

此外，恩智浦被納入標準普爾 500 指數也是一種積極的認可，這是對整個恩智浦團隊為推動成長、提高盈利能力和增強自由現金流所做的大量努力的有力驗證。

Now before I pass the call over to Peter, I would like to take a minute and discuss our sustainability efforts, an area to which NXP has a long-demonstrated history of commitment. At a more personal level, I do believe sustainability is a very important journey we all need to embrace and undertake, and it's not just the finite destination.

現在，在將電話轉給 Peter 之前，我想花一點時間討論我們的永續發展工作，恩智浦長期以來一直致力於這一領域。在個人層面上，我確實相信永續發展是我們所有人都需要擁抱和承擔的非常重要的旅程，而且它不僅僅是有限的目的地。

At NXP, we are dedicated to our long-term sustainability goals, which our employees, our customers, our suppliers and investors all believe are of the utmost importance. All our stakeholders are paying attention to the products we develop, to how our company complements the communities we operate within and to how we attempt to lessen the impact our company has on our environment.

在恩智浦，我們致力於實現長期永續發展目標，我們的員工、客戶、供應商和投資者都認為這一目標至關重要。我們所有的利害關係人都在關注我們開發的產品、我們的公司如何補充我們經營的社區以及我們如何努力減少我們的公司對環境的影響。

And hence, we just recently published our Annual Corporate Sustainability Report in our annual proxy statement, both of which set forth the progress we have achieved towards previously stated goals and lay out our vision for the future. In support of our continuous commitment to improve our environmental and social responsibility and our corporate governance metrics, there are a few areas I would like to highlight, starting with social responsibility.

因此，我們最近在年度股東委託書中發布了年度企業永續發展報告，其中闡述了我們在實現先前設定的目標方面所取得的進展，並闡述了我們對未來的願景。為了支持我們不斷致力於改善環境和社會責任以及公司治理指標，我想強調幾個領域，首先是社會責任。

We have made clear our commitments to workplace diversity, equality and inclusion. In order to ensure our working environment provides equal access and opportunity, we appointed a head of diversity, equality and inclusion, reporting directly to me and to our Executive Vice President of Human Resources. We are dedicated to creating an inclusive and diverse work environment where NXP appropriately mirrors the society and communities in which we operate.

我們明確致力於工作場所多元化、平等和包容。為了確保我們的工作環境提供平等的機會和機會，我們任命了一位多元化、平等和包容性負責人，直接向我和人力資源執行副總裁報告。我們致力於創造一個包容和多元化的工作環境，讓恩智浦適當地反映我們經營所在的社會和社區。

We have an ongoing commitment to improve and refine our corporate governance. In 2020, we have enhanced our human capital management disclosures, which expanded and detailed workforce demographics. We are committed to improving gender diversity throughout the organization, but especially within the company's leadership teams.

我們持續致力於改善和完善我們的公司治理。 2020 年，我們加強了人力資本管理揭露，擴大並詳細介紹了勞動力人口統計。我們致力於改善整個組織的性別多樣性，尤其是公司領導團隊內的性別多樣性。

Now turning to environmental impact. In 2020, we met our 10-year goal of reducing our carbon footprint by 30%. We have achieved a 47% water recycling rate, and we purchased 27% of our electricity from renewable sources, led by our factory in Nijmegen, which is running 100% on renewable energy.

現在轉向環境影響。 2020 年，我們實現了將碳足跡減少 30% 的 10 年目標。我們實現了 47% 的水循環利用率，並從再生能源購買了 27% 的電力，其中奈梅亨工廠 100% 使用再生能源。

Finally, and certainly not least, our employees. We definitely believe our employees are the lifeblood of innovation and the spirit at NXP. We are dedicated to building a highly engaged workforce who will continuously push the boundaries of innovation. We view a highly engaged workforce as the very best early indicator of potential success for our company in the future. We measure this annually through a global employee survey called the Winning Culture Survey. That survey looks at multiple early indicators of long-term employee engagement. It includes factors as employee views on company strategy, innovation, execution and leadership; as well as culture, collaboration and a supportive work environment. And I'm proud to say that in 2020, we had a 90-plus percent global participation rate.

最後，當然也是最重要的，我們的員工。我們堅信，我們的員工是恩智浦創新和精神的命脈。我們致力於打造一支高度敬業的員工隊伍，並不斷突破創新界限。我們認為高度敬業的員工隊伍是我們公司未來潛在成功的最佳早期指標。我們每年都會透過一項名為「獲勝文化調查」的全球員工調查來衡量這一點。該調查著眼於長期員工敬業度的多個早期指標。它包括員工對公司策略、創新、執行力和領導力的看法等因素；以及文化、協作和支持性的工作環境。我很自豪地說，2020 年，我們的全球參與率超過 90%。

Now in summary, we are very, very encouraged by the rapid rebound in demand across our end markets. Based on our customer conversations and order rates, it appears NXP is in the early stages of a longer-term company-specific growth cycle. Our employees are highly engaged to drive our success, we have a robust pipeline of new and innovative products and customer response engagement, design win momentum, all underpin our optimism about the future potential of NXP.

總而言之，我們對終端市場需求的快速反彈感到非常非常鼓舞。根據我們的客戶對話和訂單率，恩智浦似乎正處於公司特定的長期成長週期的早期階段。我們的員工高度投入以推動我們的成功，我們擁有強大的新創新產品管道、客戶響應參與度、設計獲勝動力，所有這些都支撐了我們對恩智浦未來潛力的樂觀態度。

I'm extremely proud of all our employees, but today, I would like to especially commend our manufacturing, our operations and customer-facing teams for their relentless focus and energy while assuring our customer success. Their dedication and hard work in the face of a very challenging supply environment truly make a big difference.

我為我們所有的員工感到非常自豪，但今天，我要特別讚揚我們的製造、營運和麵向客戶的團隊，他們在確保客戶成功的同時，堅持不懈的專注和精力。面對極具挑戰性的供應環境，他們的奉獻精神和辛勤工作確實產生了巨大的影響。

And now I would like to pass the call to Peter for a review of our financial performance. Peter?

現在我想將電話轉給彼得，請他審查我們的財務表現。彼得？

Thank you, Kurt, and good morning to everyone on today's call. As Kurt has already covered the drivers of the revenue during the first quarter and provided our revenue outlook for the second quarter, I'll move on to the financial highlights.

謝謝庫爾特，今天電話會議的大家早安。由於庫爾特已經介紹了第一季收入的驅動因素並提供了第二季度的收入前景，我將繼續討論財務亮點。

Overall, our first quarter financial performance was very good. Revenue was above the midpoint of our guidance range and we drove an improvement of both non-GAAP profit and non-GAAP operating profit.

整體而言，我們第一季的財務表現非常好。收入高於我們指導範圍的中點，我們推動了非 GAAP 利潤和非 GAAP 營業利潤的改善。

Moving to the details of the first quarter. Total revenue was $2.57 billion, up 27% year-on-year and above the midpoint of our guidance range. We generated $1.39 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 54.2%, up 240 basis points year-on-year and above the high end of our guidance.

轉向第一季的細節。總收入為 25.7 億美元，年增 27%，高於我們指引範圍的中點。我們實現了 13.9 億美元的非 GAAP 毛利，非 GAAP 毛利率為 54.2%，較去年同期成長 240 個基點，高於我們指引的上限。

Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $600 million, up $55 million year-on-year and up $37 million from the fourth quarter. This was $10 million above the midpoint of our guidance due to increased variable compensation driven by an improved first half performance.

非 GAAP 營運費用總額為 6 億美元，年增 5,500 萬美元，季增 3,700 萬美元。由於上半年業績改善推動可變薪酬增加，這比我們指導的中點高出 1000 萬美元。

From a total operating profit perspective, non-GAAP operating profit was $792 million, and non-GAAP operating margin was 30.9%, up 600 basis points year-on-year and was at the high end of our guidance.

從總營業利潤來看，非 GAAP 營業利潤為 7.92 億美元，非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 30.9%，年增 600 個基點，處於我們指引的高端。

Non-GAAP interest expense was $87 million, cash taxes for ongoing operations were $40 million and noncontrolling interest was $11 million. Taken together, $30 million better than our guidance. Stock-based comp, which is not included in our non-GAAP earnings, was $91 million.

非 GAAP 利息支出為 8,700 萬美元，持續經營現金稅為 4,000 萬美元，非控制利息為 1,100 萬美元。總而言之，比我們的指導值高出 3000 萬美元。基於股票的補償為 9,100 萬美元，不包含在我們的非 GAAP 收益中。

Now I'd like to the changes in our cash and debt. Our total debt at the end of the fourth quarter was $7.61 billion, essentially flat versus the fourth quarter. Our ending cash position was $1.84 billion, down $433 million sequentially, mainly due to share repurchases, offset by cash generation during the first quarter. The resulting net debt was $5.77 billion, and we exited the quarter with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $3.09 billion. Our ratio of net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA was, at the end of quarter 1, was 1.9x, and our 12-month adjusted EBITDA interest coverage was 8.6x. Our liquidity is excellent, and our balance sheet continues to be very strong.

現在我想了解我們的現金和債務的變化。第四季末我們的總債務為 76.1 億美元，與第四季基本持平。我們的期末現金部位為 18.4 億美元，比上一季減少 4.33 億美元，主要是由於股票回購，被第一季的現金產生所抵銷。由此產生的淨債務為 57.7 億美元，本季結束時，過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 為 30.9 億美元。截至第一季末，我們的淨負債與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.9 倍，12 個月調整後 EBITDA 利息保障倍數為 8.6 倍。我們的流動性非常好，我們的資產負債表仍然非常強勁。

During the first quarter, we paid $105 million in cash dividends and repurchased $905 million of our shares for a total of $1 billion of capital returned to our owners during the quarter.

第一季度，我們支付了 1.05 億美元的現金股息，並回購了 9.05 億美元的股票，本季總共向所有者返還了 10 億美元的資本。

Turning to working capital metrics. Days of inventory was 81 days, an increase of 3 days sequentially, and continues to be significantly below our long-term target of 95 days. We continue to closely manage our distribution channel with inventory in the channel at 1.6 months, flat sequentially and below our long-term target. Both metrics reflect the continuation of strong customer order rates and we continue to be in a supply-constrained position. It will take several quarters before we are able to rebuild on-hand and channel inventories to our long-term target levels.

轉向營運資本指標。庫存天數為 81 天，比上一季增加 3 天，仍顯著低於我們 95 天的長期目標。我們繼續密切管理我們的分銷管道，通路庫存為 1.6 個月，與上一季持平，低於我們的長期目標。這兩個指標都反映出客戶訂單率持續強勁，而我們仍然處於供應緊張的境地。我們需要幾個季度的時間來重建現有庫存並將庫存達到我們的長期目標水準。

Days receivable were 30 days, up 2 days sequentially; and days payable was 79 days, an increase of 4 days versus the prior quarter as we continue to increase material orders to our suppliers. Taken together, our cash conversion cycle was 32 days, up 1 day versus the prior quarter, reflecting strong customer demand, solid receivables collections and positioning for customer deliveries in future periods.

應收帳款天數為30天，月增2天；應付帳款天數為 79 天，比上一季增加 4 天，因為我們繼續增加對供應商的材料訂單。總而言之，我們的現金週轉週期為 32 天，比上一季增加 1 天，反映了強勁的客戶需求、穩健的應收帳款催收以及對未來時期客戶交付的定位。

Cash flow from operations was $732 million and net CapEx was $150 million, resulting in non-GAAP free cash flow of $582 million.

營運現金流為 7.32 億美元，淨資本支出為 1.5 億美元，非 GAAP 自由現金流為 5.82 億美元。

Turning to our expectations for the second quarter. As Kurt mentioned, we anticipate Q2 revenue to be about $2.57 billion, plus or minus about $70 million. At the midpoint, this is up 41% year-on-year and flat sequentially. We expect non-GAAP gross profit to be about 55.5%, plus or minus 30 basis points. Operating expenses are expected to be about $623 million, plus or minus about $10 million. And taken together, we see non-GAAP operating margin to be about 31.3% to the midpoint. We estimate non-GAAP financial expense to be about $87 million and anticipate cash tax related to ongoing operations to be about $55 million. Noncontrolling interest will be about $9 million. And for the second quarter, we suggest that for modeling purposes, you use an average share count of 283 million shares.

轉向我們對第二季的預期。正如 Kurt 所提到的，我們預計第二季營收約為 25.7 億美元，上下浮動約 7,000 萬美元。中間值年增 41%，與上一季持平。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利約為 55.5%，上下浮動 30 個基點。營運費用預計約 6.23 億美元，上下浮動約 1,000 萬美元。綜合來看，我們預期非 GAAP 營運利潤率中位數約為 31.3%。我們預計非 GAAP 財務費用約為 8,700 萬美元，預計與持續營運相關的現金稅約為 5,500 萬美元。非控制權益約 900 萬美元。對於第二季度，我們建議出於建模目的，使用 2.83 億股的平均股數。

Finally, I have a few closing comments I'd like to make. Firstly, demand trends continue be strong across our target end markets, and customer interest in our newest products continues to be robust. We are diligently working with our customers and our suppliers to address order requests in a timely manner. Our second quarter guidance reflects the clear potential of our business model, both in terms of revenue growth as well as the significant fall-through which will enable us to drive our non-GAAP gross margin target to the 55% level.

最後，我想提出幾點結束語。首先，我們的目標終端市場的需求趨勢持續強勁，客戶對我們最新產品的興趣持續強勁。我們正在努力與客戶和供應商合作，及時解決訂單請求。我們第二季的指導反映了我們業務模式的明顯潛力，無論是在收入成長方面還是在收入大幅下滑方面，這將使我們能夠將非 GAAP 毛利率目標提高到 55% 的水平。

With the new United States administration in place, the potential increase for -- sorry. Thirdly, with the new U.S. administration in place, the potential increase for corporate income taxes is a large topic of interest. Unfortunately, at this point in time, there are too many variables in play, and it just makes it impossible for any company to forecast. Therefore, it seems pointless to speculate until we can get more clarity. On a more positive note, we do expect our cash taxes to be slightly lower than the originally envisaged for 2021. So 2021 will likely be 9% versus the previously indicated 10%.

隨著美國新政府的就位，抱歉，潛在的增加。第三，隨著美國新政府的上台，企業所得稅的潛在成長成為人們關注的焦點。不幸的是，目前存在太多變數，任何公司都無法預測。因此，在我們更加清楚之前，猜測似乎毫無意義。從更積極的角度來看，我們確實預計 2021 年的現金稅將略低於最初設想的水平。

Fourthly, as we've said in the past, our capital return policy is to return all excess free cash flow to our owners. During the first quarter, the Board approved a $2 billion buyback authorization as well as a 50% increase in our quarterly cash dividend. During the quarter, we returned $1 billion to shareholders, and we will continue to execute our stated capital return policy.

第四，正如我們過去所說，我們的資本返還政策是將所有多餘的自由現金流回饋給我們的所有者。第一季度，董事會批准了 20 億美元的回購授權，並將季度現金股利增加 50%。本季度，我們向股東返還了 10 億美元，我們將繼續執行既定的資本返還政策。

Fifthly, as Kurt mentioned, we believe the demand environment is strong. And notwithstanding the supply constraints, we believe the second half of 2021 will be greater than the first half of the year.

第五，正如庫爾特所提到的，我們認為需求環境強勁。儘管有供應限制，但我們相信 2021 年下半年的產量將大於上半年。

Sixth and finally, I'd like to thank all my colleagues at NXP for their dedication and the incredible job executing in a truly unbelievable environment.

第六也是最後，我要感謝恩智浦的所有同事，感謝他們的奉獻精神以及在真正令人難以置信的環境中執行的令人難以置信的工作。

So with that, I'd like to turn it back to the operator for any questions you might have.

因此，如果您有任何問題，我想將其轉回給接線員。

Renz, we'll poll for questions.

倫茲，我們將進行投票詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of C.J. Muse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 C.J. Muse。

I guess, Kurt, intrigued by your commentary around being in the early ages of long-term growth cycle for NXP. And I think we -- all of us on the call understand the growth drivers behind the story, but would love to hear what's changed in your view, say, in the last 3 months? And if you could walk through that, that would be great.

我想，庫爾特，您對恩智浦處於長期增長週期早期的評論感興趣。我認為我們——所有參加電話會議的人都了解這個故事背後的成長動力，但很想聽聽您的看法發生了什麼變化，比如說，在過去的三個月裡？如果你能經歷這些，那就太好了。

Yes, many thanks, C.J. Yes, absolutely. So we do see us just being at the beginning of a longer-term growth cycle. And I think, in that respect, I also tried to clarify that we do see the second half of the year growing again over the first half of this year.

是的，非常感謝，C.J. 是的，絕對是如此。因此，我們確實看到我們正處於長期成長週期的開始。我認為，在這方面，我還試圖澄清，我們確實看到今年下半年比今年上半年再次成長。

What has changed over the last 3 months is that the demand environment has, not only continued to be strong, but I would say we started to understand better and better some of the sustainable drivers of the demand environment. Now with us being 50% exposed to the automotive end market, this is clearly one place where we do understand now how content increases are contributing significantly to this very, very robust demand environment where we absolutely see no reason why that should ease off or should go away.

過去三個月發生的變化是，需求環境不僅持續強勁，而且我想說，我們開始越來越了解需求環境的一些永續驅動因素。現在，我們50% 的業務涉及汽車終端市場，這顯然是我們現在確實了解內容增加如何對這個非常非常強勁的需求環境做出重大貢獻的地方，我們絕對看不到為什麼這種情況應該緩解或應該離開。

So what I tried to say here is that our understanding of the demand environment has become better and deeper. And with that, we better believe in it. Also, totally ruling out double-ordering and any of these possible fears of piling inventories at any place. So in our key segments, and I can say that very explicitly for automotive, for industrial, but also for mobile, we do know and we do see that what we ship out is immediately being built into product and no inventory is being built in any place.

所以我在這裡想說的是，我們對需求環境的理解變得更好、更深入了。有了這個，我們最好相信它。此外，完全排除重複訂購以及任何可能對在任何地方堆積庫存的擔憂。因此，在我們的關鍵領域，我可以非常明確地說，無論是汽車、工業還是移動領域，我們確實知道並且確實看到我們發出的產品會立即構建到產品中，並且不會在任何產品中建立庫存。

That's very helpful. If I could follow up. Peter, obviously, reaching 55-plus percent is a great thing, but the next question is always, what have you done for me lately? So curious, does the model hold true going forward, every 5% increase in revenues, you get a 100 bps uptick in gross margins? Or how should we be thinking about the trajectory from here?

這非常有幫助。如果我能跟進的話。 Peter，顯然，達到 55% 以上是一件很棒的事情，但下一個問題始終是，你最近為我做了什麼？很好奇，這個模型未來是否成立，營收每增加 5%，毛利率就會增加 100 個基點？或者我們該如何思考從這裡開始的軌跡？

No. I wouldn't think of it that way. In 2019 and 2020, we were continually struggling on utilization. We were trying to use that kind of rule of thumb to explain what might happen as we go to full utilization.

不，我不會那樣想。 2019年和2020年，我們在利用率上持續掙扎。我們試圖用這種經驗法則來解釋當我們充分利用時可能會發生什麼。

The good news now is we always said that around about $2.4 billion, we could run 55%. So we're a little bit above that, $2.5 billion and 55.5%. We're pretty much, now internally, kind of at the high end of our utilization. So I feel pretty good about the gross margin numbers where we are.

現在的好消息是我們總是說大約 24 億美元左右，我們可以運行 55%。所以我們略高於這個數字，25 億美元，佔 55.5%。現在在內部，我們幾乎處於利用率的高端。所以我對我們現在的毛利率數字感覺很好。

But you'll see in our CapEx number, and for the full year, we'll probably do about 7% CapEx this year. We need to start adding -- or not we need. We are adding capacity, particularly in the back end, to cope with the additional revenue we're seeing. And also, over the last year or 2, we've seen the amount of product we buy externally move up from the kind of low 50s to the high 50s percent.

但你會在我們的資本支出數字中看到，對於全年來說，我們今年的資本支出可能約為 7%。我們需要開始添加——或者我們不需要。我們正在增加產能，特別是後端產能，以應對我們看到的額外收入。而且，在過去一兩年裡，我們從外部購買的產品數量從 50% 的低值上升到了 50% 的高值。

So I think from a gross margin perspective, I'd say clearly, the challenge of the moment, is to demonstrate that we can consistently run at 55%, which we feel very, very comfortable about. And then, over the next few years, the things that will move us up to 57% are not so much revenue. They're more about the new product introductions and improving the cost performance of our products.

因此，我認為從毛利率的角度來看，我要明確地說，目前的挑戰是證明我們可以持續保持 55% 的水平，我們對此感到非常非常滿意。然後，在接下來的幾年裡，讓我們上升到 57% 的因素並不是太多的收入。他們更多的是關於新產品的推出和提高我們產品的性價比。

Our next question is from the line of Ross Seymore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ross Seymore。

Congrats on the strong results. Peter, I want to dive into the gross margin a little bit more tactically in the near term. Can you just discuss what drove the upside in the first quarter and the second quarter? And second quarter is especially impressive, considering it appears that the mix between segments isn't really contributing significantly. So just a little bit of color on how you beat and then raised in the quarter guide.

祝賀取得強勁的成果。彼得，我想在短期內從戰術上更深入地探討毛利率。您能談談推動第一季和第二季上漲的因素嗎？考慮到細分市場之間的混合似乎並沒有真正做出重大貢獻，第二季尤其令人印象深刻。因此，在季度指南中只對如何擊敗和加註進行了一些說明。

Yes. So in the first quarter, the biggest move, Ross, was mix. We shipped proportionately less auto and more coming from an IoT. And to be honest, $10 million gives you 40 or 50 basis points of margin, so we're not talking about huge numbers.

是的。所以在第一節，羅斯最大的舉動就是混合。我們的汽車出貨量相應減少，而來自物聯網的出貨量增加。老實說，1000 萬美元可以給你 40 或 50 個基點的利潤，所以我們不是在談論巨大的數字。

And as we go in from Q1 to Q2, it's really all about utilization. So we're not only able to run, obviously not Austin, but our other fabs full out. But also, we're getting really great utilization now in our back ends. So there's always a few small things moving in different directions.

當我們從第一季進入第二季時，一切實際上都與利用率有關。因此，我們不僅能夠運作（顯然不是奧斯汀），而且我們的其他晶圓廠也能滿載運轉。而且，我們現在的後端利用率非常高。所以總是會有一些小事朝著不同的方向發展。

But I think Q1, it was about utilization that helped us beat -- sorry, Q1 was about mix, which helped us beat the guidance. But Q1 to Q2 is really about utilization, and that's -- now that we've been able to -- optimize is maybe the wrong word, but certainly, utilize things a lot better. That's what gives me confidence on our gross margin going forward, really.

但我認為第一季是關於利用率的，幫助我們擊敗了——抱歉，第一季是關於混合的，這幫助我們擊敗了指導。但第一季到第二季實際上是關於利用率的，而且——現在我們已經能夠——優化這個詞可能是錯誤的，但可以肯定的是，更好地利用事物。這確實讓我對我們未來的毛利率充滿信心。

Great. I guess as my follow-up, one for Kurt. You talked about the confidence in the demand, the lack of double ordering, second half over first half. I guess if I narrowed it down to your automotive business, historically, we've had a typical delta of content above SAAR. And it sounds like you're confident that, that delta is actually expanding. So I guess, really, what's changed there?

偉大的。我想作為我的後續行動，是給庫爾特的。您談到了對需求的信心，沒有雙重訂購，下半年比上半年。我想，如果我將範圍縮小到您的汽車業務，從歷史上看，我們的典型內容增量高於 SAAR。聽起來你很有信心，這個三角洲其實正在擴大。所以我想，真的，那裡發生了什麼變化？

You have pretty long design cycles in that sort of business, and so it's a little surprising to me that you would have something that would arise that -- in the short term that would increase your ability to outgrow SAAR as rapidly as you appear to do right now. So I guess just a little more color on what gives you that confidence would be helpful.

在這類業務中，你的設計週期相當長，所以令我有點驚訝的是，你會出現一些東西——在短期內，這將提高你的能力，以像你看起來的那樣迅速超越 SAAR現在。所以我想在給你信心的東西上多加一點顏色會很有幫助。

Thanks, Ross. It is actually not that much all of a sudden as you would portray it because we've seen this already building through the last year. But obviously, it's been all snowed under by the shutdowns, especially in the first half, in the factories. But if you think about content increases, and that's why I made the comparison to 2019, which was more of a normal year, if you will, then actually, over that period of time, it doesn't look that crazy at all. So that's one statement.

謝謝，羅斯。實際上，這並不像你所描述的那麼突然，因為我們在去年就已經看到了這種情況的發展。但顯然，這一切都被工廠的停工所掩蓋，尤其是在上半年。但如果你考慮到內容的增加，這就是為什麼我將2019 年與2019 年進行比較，如果你願意的話，那一年更像是正常的一年，那麼實際上，在那段時間裡，它看起來根本沒有那麼瘋狂。這就是一個聲明。

But there is 2 more -- so it's not all of a sudden, but it's really been gradually building already over the period of the last 4 to 6 quarters, but very much disrupted by the -- by COVID.

但還有另外兩個——所以它不是突然發生的，而是在過去 4 到 6 個季度中已經逐漸建立起來，但在很大程度上受到了——新冠疫情的干擾。

Now there is 2 more things which are really important here. The one is, yes, I do believe that, especially the electric vehicle production rates, are increasing faster than anticipated, which I believe makes it a content-richer story than probably the initial forecast would have suggested. So the penetration of electric drivetrains is going faster, especially now, this year, than it was forecasted.

現在還有兩件事非常重要。一個是，是的，我確實相信，尤其是電動車生產率的成長速度比預期更快，我相信這使它成為一個比最初預測所建議的內容更豐富的故事。因此，電動傳動系統的普及速度比預期更快，尤其是現在，今年。

Thirdly, and I think actually most importantly, we are now bearing fruit from all of the design wins in the focus areas we've been working on so hard over the past years. So what I'm saying is, Ross, that some of this is clearly company-specific. If I look at our growth rates in our focus businesses like radar, ADAS, battery management, the digital clusters, then it becomes very obvious that those are really pulling ahead, the growth.

第三，我認為實際上最重要的是，我們現在正在從過去幾年我們一直在努力工作的重點領域的所有設計勝利中取得成果。羅斯，我想說的是，其中一些顯然是公司特定的。如果我看看雷達、ADAS、電池管理、數位叢集等重點業務的成長率，就會發現這些業務確實在推動成長。

So there is an underlying stronger momentum on content gains, but I think a good part of this is also company-specific, meaning share gains for NXP.

因此，內容成長有潛在的更強動力，但我認為其中很大一部分也是公司特定的，這意味著恩智浦的份額成長。

Our next question is from the line of Vivek Arya.

我們的下一個問題來自維維克·艾莉亞 (Vivek Arya)。

I had 2 as well. Just one more on gross margin. I'm curious, Peter, what role is pricing playing, if any, in your gross margin? And if let's say, your Q3 and Q4 sales are above your Q2 sales, then all else being equal, can gross margins also exceed 55% in each of those 2 quarters?

我也有2個。再談一談毛利率。我很好奇，彼得，定價在您的毛利率中扮演什麼角色（如果有的話）？如果假設您的第三季和第四季的銷售額高於第二季的銷售額，那麼在其他條件相同的情況下，這兩個季度的毛利率是否也能超過 55%？

In terms of pricing, it's having no impact whatsoever, Vivek. We said on our last call, that although some suppliers were being very tactical and trying to take advantage of the situation, that was not our strategy. We said we would definitely pass on any cost increases that we have, and we're able to do that. But we have no intention of trying to improve our profitability through gouging our customers. And there's certainly no impact of anything even remotely like that in Q1 or Q2.

就定價而言，它沒有任何影響，Vivek。我們在上次電話會議中表示，儘管有些供應商非常有策略並試圖利用這種情況，但這不是我們的策略。我們說過我們肯定會轉嫁任何增加的成本，而且我們有能力做到這一點。但我們無意透過欺騙客戶來提高獲利能力。當然，沒有任何影響，即使是與第一季或第二季類似的影響。

In terms of the second half, as I said before to Ross, it's gross margin from here is not really driven by additional revenue. Yes, could there be some small impacts here? Sure.

就下半年而言，正如我之前對羅斯所說，這裡的毛利率並不是真正由額外收入所驅動的。是的，這裡會不會有一些小影響？當然。

I think I'd say 2 things. One is I have a strong confidence, that the level of gross margin we are at the moment. So I think that's a good thing. And I think as we go forward, our focus has to be on how we bring out our new products and new versions of our existing products to improve our profitability. But I think after all of the debate over the past few years on whether we can really run at 55%, I think that's most definitely behind us.

我想我會說兩件事。一是我對我們目前的毛利率水準充滿信心。所以我認為這是一件好事。我認為，隨著我們前進，我們的重點必須放在如何推出新產品和現有產品的新版本，以提高我們的獲利能力。但我認為，經過過去幾年關於我們是否真的能夠以 55% 的速度運行的爭論之後，我認為這絕對已經成為過去。

Got it. And for my follow-up, Kurt, I'm curious, how much of the unfulfilled demand that you are seeing this year can help to extend on the cycle into 2022? So for example, when I look at your automotive customers, and I think you have mentioned that given what the auto industry went through in this cycle, right, they might do things differently. So I was hoping you could talk about what they can do differently that helps to extend your demand cycle and visibility.

知道了。對於我的後續行動，庫爾特，我很好奇，您今年看到的未滿足的需求有多少可以幫助將週期延長到 2022 年？例如，當我觀察你們的汽車客戶時，我認為你們已經提到，考慮到汽車行業在這個週期中經歷的事情，對吧，他們可能會採取不同的做法。所以我希望您能談談他們可以採取哪些不同的做法來幫助延長您的需求週期和可見性。

And then outside of autos, when I look at your deficit on the distribution side, right, that's still close to, I think, 0.8 months, right? So usually 2.4 months, and it's 1.6 months right now. So when can that be addressed? And is it possible that it doesn't get addressed till next year? So overall, just how do you conceptually think about the cycle extending into next year?

然後，在汽車之外，當我查看分銷方面的赤字時，我認為這仍然接近 0.8 個月，對嗎？通常是2.4個月，現在是1.6個月。那什麼時候可以解決這個問題呢？有沒有可能要到明年才能解決這個問題？總的來說，您如何從概念上考慮延續到明年的周期？

Yes, that's a great question. Let me answer to both elements, Vivek. Let me take the latter one, the [distri] one first. So yes, we indeed stayed at the record low 1.6 months in the first quarter just like we did in Q4. And yes, I mean, if you would just do some chainsaw math, this -- just bringing that back to a more normal level of 2.4 months, which we have actually historically had, is probably like $400 million.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。讓我回答這兩個因素，維韋克。讓我先來看後一個，即[distri]。所以，是的，我們確實像第四季度一樣，在第一季保持了 1.6 個月的歷史低點。是的，我的意思是，如果你做一些電鋸計算，僅僅將其恢復到我們歷史上實際擁有的 2.4 個月的更正常水平，可能需要 4 億美元。

But no, I don't anticipate this -- that we reach that level any time this year. I just think the sell-through is so strong that we don't get it up from a supply perspective to -- back to that level. And that also gives you an indication for the very strong pull here, which is really a -- which is sell-through. I mean, if we ship more into distribution now, inventory wouldn't go up, but it would be actually selling through right away.

但不，我預計今年我們不會在任何時候達到這個水平。我只是認為銷售量如此強勁，以至於我們無法從供應角度將其恢復到那個水平。這也給你一個指示，表明這裡有非常強勁的拉力，這實際上是一種銷售。我的意思是，如果我們現在運送更多的東西到分銷中，庫存不會增加，但實際上會立即售罄。

On the automotive side, yes, that's -- I think this is indeed a significant discussion, but also exploration, which we are having across the industry. First of all, I'd say most of our products, if not all in automotive, are noncommodity product. So it is indeed a matter of fact that, that demand, it just doesn't go away. I mean, if anything, then it's shifted because possibly a car here or there cannot be built. And with that, it moves then into the next quarter or eventually into next year, as you say.

在汽車方面，是的，我認為這確實是一次重要的討論，也是我們整個產業正在進行的探索。首先，我想說，我們的大部分產品（如果不是全部汽車產品）都是非商品產品。所以事實上，這種需求並沒有消失。我的意思是，如果有的話，那就是它被轉移了，因為可能這裡或那裡無法製造汽車。就這樣，正如你所說，它會進入下一個季度或最終進入明年。

At the same time, we are working very, very diligently, both with our customers, which is the Tier 1s, but also directly with the car companies, on very prudently understanding the future demand patterns. I think one of the biggest learnings out of this current situation is to build much more transparency about the content increases, which are often application- and module-specific, and how they map out over not just the next 2 quarters, which is far too short for us, knowing that we have a manufacturing cycle time of 1 to 2 quarters, but actually more over the next 8 to 16 quarters in order to understand how that's going to map out. So that work is underway, and I can certainly say we do this with all of the top 10 car OEMs in the world.

同時，我們非常非常勤奮地工作，既與我們的客戶（即一級客戶）合作，又直接與汽車公司合作，非常謹慎地了解未來的需求模式。我認為從當前情況中學到的最大教訓之一是提高內容增加的透明度，這些增加通常是特定於應用程式和模組的，以及它們如何規劃，而不僅僅是未來兩個季度，這太遠了。對我們來說，知道我們的製造週期時間為1 到2 個季度，但實際上在接下來的8 到16 個季度會更長，以便了解如何規劃。這項工作正在進行中，我可以肯定地說，我們與世界上所有排名前 10 的汽車原始設備製造商都在這樣做。

At the same time, we also work, of course, very hard with our suppliers, with our -- mainly wafer suppliers, but also back-end extensions, as Peter has mentioned, in order to quickly ramp up our supply capability at the same time. And I mean, part of this is the reason why I said earlier, that already in the second half of this year, we will ship at higher revenue levels than we are doing in the first half. So some of that demand obviously, it doesn't have to move into next year, but we are satisfying it already in the second half of this year.

同時，當然，我們也與我們的供應商非常努力地合作，主要是晶圓供應商，但正如彼得所提到的那樣，也與後端擴展合作，以便在同一時間快速提高我們的供應能力。我的意思是，部分原因是我之前說過，在今年下半年，我們的出貨量將高於上半年。因此，其中一些需求顯然不必轉移到明年，但我們已經在今年下半年滿足了它。

But yes, it's a long term -- it's really a long-term story. A lot of learning out of this situation. But at the bottom of it, and I think that's most important, a more and more diligent understanding of a very robust demand environment.

但是，是的，這是一個長期的——這確實是一個長期的故事。從這種情況中可以學到很多。但歸根究底，我認為這是最重要的，是對非常強勁的需求環境越來越勤奮的了解。

Our next question is from the line of Stacy Rasgon.

我們的下一個問題來自史黛西·拉斯貢（Stacy Rasgon）。

So my first question, I wanted to ask you about the channel inventory situation, I wanted to drill in. I know you said that you're confident that nothing you're shipping across your core market auto, but also industrial and mobile, you think nothing is going on the shelf, everything is going into an end product.

所以我的第一個問題，我想問你有關渠道庫存情況的信息，我想深入了解。貨架上沒有任何東西，所有東西都將進入最終產品。

Especially in industrial and mobile, how do you know that it's not going on the shelf and going into an end product instead? What gives you that level of confidence? I think in auto, I kind of get it, but in industrial and mobile, how would you know that your customers are not sticking the stuff on the shelf?

特別是在工業和移動領域，您如何知道它不會上架而是進入最終產品？是什麼給了你這樣的信心？我認為在汽車領域，我有點明白這一點，但在工業和移動領域，你怎麼知道你的客戶沒有把東西放在貨架上？

It's really the direct customer exposure which we have there. You would probably say, "Yes, but how can you have that through distribution?" I mean, in mobile, you know that the number of mobile end customers isn't that big. So I mean, there is a very direct and very specific contact. So we exactly know how much they need our product because they would love to have more, I can tell you. I mean, this is a direct chain.

這實際上是我們在那裡的直接客戶曝光。您可能會說：“是的，但是如何透過分發來獲得它？”我的意思是，在行動領域，你知道行動終端客戶的數量並沒有那麼大。所以我的意思是，這是一種非常直接、非常具體的連結。所以我們確切地知道他們有多需要我們的產品，因為他們希望擁有更多，我可以告訴你。我的意思是，這是一條直鏈。

In the industrial space, it is arguably a much larger customer base, which is behind distribution. But also there, there are some big customers who are in very direct and very frequent contact also with me personally, and I know about their demand and build situation.

在工業領域，可以說是一個更大的客戶群，這是分銷的背後。但也有一些大客戶與我個人有非常直接和非常頻繁的聯繫，我了解他們的需求和建設情況。

So it's really based on a very personal exposure, I would almost say, what gives me and the team -- it's not just about me, but all of our leaders here in NXP, that direct exposure, to know that the product is directly flushing through.

因此，這實際上是基於非常個人的曝光，我幾乎可以說，是什麼給了我和團隊 - 這不僅僅是我，而是我們在恩智浦的所有領導者，直接曝光，知道產品正在直接沖洗通過。

Got it. For my follow-up, I wanted to drill into a little bit your comment on, I guess, the auto trajectory. You said it's up like 20% in the first half of '21 versus the first half of '19, even with units down -- with end units down. Can you give us some view for how much of that 20% increase is actually content versus just an increase, like, like-for-like in terms of units?

知道了。對於我的後續行動，我想深入探討您對自動軌蹟的評論。你說，與 19 年上半年相比，21 年上半年增加了 20%，即使單位數量下降了——最終單位數量也下降了。您能否給我們一些看法，看看這 20% 的增長中有多少實際上是內容帶來的，而不是僅僅是單位數量上的增長？

That's actually hard to say. So what I was saying is indeed that we will have at least 20%. If you look at the guidance in the Q1 results, you will find it's at least 20% growth over the first half of '19. But if you think about the content, be sure to include that this is 2 years of content increase.

這其實很難說。所以我說的確實是我們至少會有20%。如果你看一下第一季業績指引，你會發現它比 19 年上半年成長了至少 20%。但如果你考慮內容，請務必考慮到這是 2 年的內容增加。

I mean, last year, clearly, the car production was very much down, but that doesn't mean that the content was coming to a stop because the content was driven by models which were to be introduced anyway, maybe at lower build rates. So if you compare the '19 to '21, it is 2 years stack-up from a content increase perspective. And I'd say, a 10% content increase per year is maybe realistic before price adjustments, and that gives you already a 20% difference over those 2 years.

我的意思是，去年，顯然，汽車產量大幅下降，但這並不意味著內容即將停止，因為內容是由無論如何都要推出的模型驅動的，可能會以較低的建造速度。因此，如果你比較 19 年和 21 年，從內容增加的角度來看，這是 2 年的疊加。我想說，在價格調整之前，每年增加 10% 的內容可能是現實的，這在這 2 年內已經產生了 20% 的差異。

Got it. So I guess it's fair to say, like, like-for-like, like you don't think it's a good [venue]. So it sounds like it's mostly coming from content, is that the right way to characterize it?

知道了。所以我想公平地說，就像你不認為這是一個好的[場地]一樣。所以聽起來它主要來自於內容，這是描述它的正確方式嗎？

I would certainly say that because the car production itself is down by 10%, if I believe IHS and if you look at the Q1 numbers, then the build rates in the first half of this year are probably almost 10% lower than they were in the first half of 2019. So it must be content and share gains.

我肯定會說，因為汽車產量本身下降了 10%，如果我相信 IHS 並且如果你看看第一季的數據，那麼今年上半年的建造率可能比去年低了近 10% 2019年上半年。一定是內容和分享收穫。

Our next question is from the line of John Pitzer.

我們的下一個問題來自約翰‧皮策 (John Pitzer)。

Congratulations on the strong result. Kurt, my first set of questions is just around kind of get a little bit more detail around the Austin shutdown and reopening. You talked last quarter about it being about a $100 million impact to Q2. Is that exactly what you saw?

恭喜您取得了優異的成績。庫爾特，我的第一組問題是關於奧斯汀關閉和重新開放的更多細節。您在上個季度談到這對第二季的影響約為 1 億美元。這正是你所看到的嗎？

And I'd be more curious, at the time it happened, it was hard to figure out if there were incremental costs that bled into the model because of Austin. Were there any? And do you expect to recoup them vis-a-vis business insurance as the year unfolds?

我更好奇的是，在事情發生時，很難弄清楚是否因為奧斯汀而導致模型增加了成本。有嗎？隨著時間的推移，您是否期望透過商業保險來收回這些費用？

Yes. So let me speak about -- let me take the revenue side first, John. So first of all, I really have to say, clearly, that was an extremely unfortunate and unexpected event, both for NXP, of course, in the first place, but in consequence also for our customers. Because the supply interruption as a consequence of this, in that current environment, is clearly not something anybody would have wished to have.

是的。所以讓我談談——讓我先談談收入方面，約翰。首先，我真的必須明確地說，這是一個極其不幸和意外的事件，當然，首先對於恩智浦來說，而且對我們的客戶來說也是如此。因為在當前環境下，由此造成的供應中斷顯然不是任何人所希望的。

Now to frame it, all of this did happen on February 15, so mid of February. I think we released our press release on March 11, that we had resumed initial operations. And I can tell you that about 8 to 9 weeks after the fact, so after Feb 15, we have been fully up and running in both facilities again. So by now, both factories are 100% running again at the pre-storm -- pre-winter storm levels, which is great news and a great achievements in a very, very challenging and difficult situation.

現在來說，這一切確實發生在 2 月 15 日，也就是 2 月中旬。我想我們在 3 月 11 日發布了新聞稿，表示我們已經恢復了初步營運。我可以告訴你，事情發生後大約 8 到 9 週，即 2 月 15 日之後，我們的兩個設施再次全面啟動並運行。因此，到目前為止，兩家工廠都已恢復100% 恢復到暴風雨前的水平——冬季暴風雨前的水平，這是一個好消息，也是在一個非常非常具有挑戰性和困難的情況下取得的巨大成就。

Yes, we had talked about $100 million impact on the revenues in Q2. I would still say, John, we -- this is the impact which we have on Q2. Now you see that we guided sequentially flat. So obviously, we found other ways and means in other areas, with other products, to make up for that loss from the factory shutdown.

是的，我們已經討論過對第二季營收的 1 億美元影響。我仍然想說，約翰，我們——這就是我們對第二季的影響。現在你看到我們的指導順序是持平的。顯然，我們在其他領域、透過其他產品找到了其他方式方法，來彌補工廠關閉造成的損失。

Furthermore, we had a tiny little bit of impact already at the very end of the first quarter in automotive. I said this earlier, that a little bit, it's really more like maybe in the $10 million range, was already impacting the very end of Q1 from a shipment perspective in automotive.

此外，我們在第一季末就已經在汽車領域產生了一點影響。我之前說過，從汽車出貨量的角度來看，它實際上更像是 1000 萬美元的範圍，已經對第一季末產生了影響。

I would further say that we are absolutely confident that the $100 million will be made up in the second half of the year. So again, why we made it up in the second -- why we will make it up in the second quarter with other products, we will make up those $100 million which we lost in the first phase in the second half of the year because the factories are running again, and we'll be shipping full out.

我還想說，我們絕對有信心在今年下半年彌補這1億美元。所以再說一遍，為什麼我們在第二季度彌補了——為什麼我們會在第二季度用其他產品來彌補，我們將在下半年彌補第一階段損失的 1 億美元，因為工廠恢復運轉，我們將全力發貨。

Now Peter, maybe you pick up the part of the question which was related to the cost impact.

現在，彼得，也許你會回答問題中與成本影響相關的部分。

Yes. So the good news, John, is our ops team had started closing down the factories before the Texas authorities just with almost no notice of the power. So we did not have any fundamental damage to the factory. So obviously, burst water pipes and that kind of thing with the cold.

是的。所以，約翰，好消息是我們的營運團隊在德州當局之前就開始關閉工廠，幾乎沒有註意到停電。所以我們工廠沒有受到任何根本性的損害。很明顯，水管爆裂之類的事情與寒冷有關。

We have insurance to essentially cover everything. So the only real impact to our cost was the deductible, which is millions of dollars rather than tens of millions of dollars. So from a cost perspective, it hasn't really had any measurable impact.

我們的保險基本上涵蓋了一切。因此，對我們的成本唯一真正影響的是免賠額，這是數百萬美元而不是數千萬美元。因此，從成本角度來看，它並沒有真正產生任何可衡量的影響。

That's really helpful. And then, Kurt, as my follow-up, I really like the way that you've kind of compared first half of this year to first half of '19 because it helps to kind of take out some of the variability around sort of the "cycle". And especially for us that are trying to figure out how much of your growth is coming from cycle versus product-specific, it's a good comp.

這真的很有幫助。然後，庫爾特，作為我的後續行動，我真的很喜歡你將今年上半年與 19 年上半年進行比較的方式，因為這有助於消除一些圍繞「循環」。尤其是對於我們那些試圖弄清楚您的成長有多少來自週期與特定產品的人來說，這是一個很好的比較。

But I guess to that point, when I look at sort of your long-term growth rate target that you have out there of 5% to 7%, that '19 to '21 compare would sort of argue a 12% growth rate trend line, at least over that 2-year period. And I don't want to steal thunder from your next Analyst Day. But when you look at the breadth of company-specific drivers out there, how do you think about that 5% to 7% growth rate historically -- or in the target model versus the 12% you've seen since '19?

但我想，在這一點上，當我考慮你們設定的 5% 到 7% 的長期成長率目標時，「19 年」到「21 年」的比較會有點爭論 12% 的成長率趨勢線，至少在這兩年期間。我不想搶你下一次分析師日的風頭。但是，當你審視公司特定驅動因素的廣度時，你如何看待歷史上 5% 到 7% 的成長率——或者在目標模型中與 19 年以來你所看到的 12% 的成長率相比？

Well, John, as you rightfully said, I mean, we're going to update that model with our next Capital Markets Day. So at this point, we cannot and will not give a new long-term guidance, and the only one which we have out is the 5% to 7%.

好吧，約翰，正如你所說，我的意思是，我們將在下一個資本市場日更新該模型。所以目前我們不能也不會給予新的長期指導，我們唯一給的就是5%到7%。

However, I clearly said earlier that some of the content drivers are in good shape, certainly in automotive, with the stronger rate of electric vehicles, with some of the trends which we have in mobile. We spoke a lot about ultra-wideband kicking in earlier. Things seem to look robust.

然而，我之前明確說過，一些內容驅動因素狀況良好，尤其是在汽車領域，電動車的比例更高，以及我們在移動領域的一些趨勢。我們之前討論過很多關於超寬頻的問題。事情看起來似乎很穩健。

But let's also not forget, John, that if you think about '18, '19, '20, all 3 years were really not great years from a market perspective. So it's always a bit tempting to take just 2 years which looked then very good. So we will have to look at this from a more longer-term perspective again.

但約翰，我們也不要忘記，如果你想想 18 年、19 年、20 年，從市場角度來看，這三年其實都不是偉大的年份。因此，只花兩年時間總是有點誘人，這在當時看起來非常好。因此，我們必須再次從更長遠的角度來看待這個問題。

But clearly, I do agree with you, what matters for NXP should be increasingly the company-specific drivers from those focus areas where our really strong portfolio, which we've been building over years with organically and inorganically, which is now playing out very nicely.

但顯然，我確實同意你的觀點，對於恩智浦來說，重要的應該是來自那些重點領域的公司特定驅動因素，這些領域是我們真正強大的產品組合，我們多年來一直透過有機和無機方式構建這些產品組合，現在正在發揮非常大的作用。

Our next question is from the line of William Stein.

我們的下一個問題來自威廉·斯坦因。

First, Kurt or Peter, I wonder if there's a product area or end market in which your ability to deliver lags the greatest versus demand. It sounds like it's in the channel, I assume that's IoT and industrial and certainly automotive as well. Is it concentrated in those 2? Is it specific products or sub-end markets within those? Or is it more broad? Any color there would be helpful. And then I do have a follow-up.

首先，庫爾特或彼得，我想知道是否有一個產品領域或終端市場，您的交付能力相對於需求滯後最大。聽起來像是在通路中，我認為是物聯網和工業，當然還有汽車。集中在這2個嗎？是特定產品還是其中的子終端市場？還是更廣泛？任何顏色都會有幫助。然後我確實有後續行動。

Yes, Will, I would actually say it's quite broad. So because it is in technology or capacity buckets, which also, in some cases, touch several markets. So no, we couldn't say it's specific to automotive or specific to distribution end markets.

是的，威爾，我實際上會說它非常廣泛。因為它涉及技術或產能領域，在某些情況下，這也涉及多個市場。所以不，我們不能說它特定於汽車或特定於分銷終端市場。

I would just say that, certainly, automotive is, for maybe good reasons, catching a lot of headlines given the big impact it has on -- from a value leverage to complete cars, which might be impacted. But I said earlier that, in large industrial applications, there is also shortages across the industry. So no, it is not something which is sharply only in automotive or only in distribution markets.

我只想說，當然，考慮到汽車行業所產生的巨大影響——從價值槓桿到可能受到影響的整車——也許出於充分的理由，它佔據了許多頭條新聞。但我剛才也說了，在大型工業應用中，全行業也存在短缺的情況。所以不，這不僅僅是在汽車或分銷市場上急劇變化。

And maybe I'd like to hit on the capacity additions. So second half revenue greater than first half. Part of that is going to be, I suppose, from the recovery of the $100 million shortfall in Q2 from the Austin fabs. But I assume there are other plans. I wonder if that's sort of incremental yields across the board, or if there's anything more sort of step-function from a capacity perspective that we should sensitize ourselves to coming online later this year.

也許我想談談容量的增加。所以下半年的收入比上半年要多。我想，其中一部分將來自奧斯汀晶圓廠第二季 1 億美元缺口的彌補。但我認為還有其他計劃。我想知道這是否是全面的增量收益，或者從容量角度來看是否存在更多的階梯功能，我們應該在今年稍後上線。

Yes. Will, it's really 3 elements. The first one you mentioned, of course, we have the $100 million catch-up from the factory closures, which we had earlier in Q1. But it is also front-end and back-end capacity. On the front-end side, our foundry partners, and I mean, they've been quite loud about this publicly, that they are increasing either allocations for fundamental capacity and yields, which also benefits NXP. So we are seeing increases here from a foundry supply perspective to NXP.

是的。威爾，這實際上是三個要素。當然，您提到的第一個問題是，我們在第一季早些時候就因工廠關閉而獲得了 1 億美元的補償。但也是前端和後端的能力。在前端方面，我們的代工合作夥伴，我的意思是，他們已經公開對此大聲疾呼，他們正在增加基本產能和產量的分配，這也有利於恩智浦。因此，從恩智浦的代工供應角度來看，我們看到了成長。

And at the same time, also within NXP, and Peter talked about the 7% CapEx this year on increased revenue levels, we are expanding our back-end capacity as hard as we can. I mean, whatever we can do in the short time is being done.

同時，也在恩智浦內部，Peter 談到了今年收入水準增加的 7% 資本支出，我們正在盡最大努力擴大我們的後端產能。我的意思是，我們在短時間內能做的事情都已經完成了。

And these moves, so the $100 million from the closed factories, the better wafer supply from external foundries and the higher throughput through our own back-end and assembly, is all helping to increase the Q3 and Q4 revenue levels.

這些舉措，包括來自關閉工廠的1 億美元、來自外部代工廠更好的晶圓供應以及透過我們自己的後端和組裝提高的吞吐量，都有助於提高第三季和第四季的收入水平。

Our next question is from the line of Blayne Curtis.

我們的下一個問題來自 Blayne Curtis。

Kurt, just 2 questions. The $100 million, just to John's question, if the initial impact in March was in auto. Is that -- where you primarily saw that $100 million that you missed, was in the auto channel?

庫爾特，只有兩個問題。 1 億美元，只是針對約翰的問題，三月的最初影響是否是在汽車領域。您主要看到您錯過的 1 億美元是在汽車頻道嗎？

And then just in terms of that supply chain, you talked about catching up on your supply would take throughout the year, and it sounds like your own inventory is probably well into next year. Just some comments on the auto OEMs. When do you think that market will catch up?

然後，就供應鏈而言，您談到要全年才能趕上供應，聽起來您自己的庫存可能會持續到明年。只是對汽車原始設備製造商的一些評論。您認為市場何時會迎頭趕上？

Yes. So first on the $100 million, Blayne. So we will not decompose it here. The auto impact was earliest because the supply chain was just totally dry already before -- while it happened. I mean, that's more a timing reasoning, why that hit auto first.

是的。首先是 1 億美元，布萊恩。所以我們這裡就不分解了。汽車產業的影響最早是因為供應鏈在它發生之前就已經完全乾涸了。我的意思是，這更多的是一個時間推理，為什麼首先會出現在汽車上。

There is one other area which is also being hit by this, which is the -- our comms infra business. And that's also the reason why our -- and you saw this in the guidance, our Q2 in the comms infra world is sequentially down. That is just the direct impact from their dependence on these Austin factories. So that's a temporary thing which we'll leave behind us after Q2.

還有一個領域也受到了影響，那就是我們的通訊基礎設施業務。這也是為什麼我們的——你在指南中看到了這一點，我們在通訊基礎設施領域的第二季度連續下降。這只是他們對奧斯汀工廠依賴的直接影響。所以這是暫時的事情，我們將在第二季之後將其拋在腦後。

Talking about the auto OEMs, I really can't answer that question, Blayne, because we still don't have that long-term transparency I talked about earlier on the demand side. I can absolutely tell you that the supply is increasing. It does increase already in the second quarter, but it also increases further in the third and fourth quarter. But it's always a function of what does the demand do at the same time?

談到汽車原始設備製造商，我真的無法回答這個問題，Blayne，因為我們仍然沒有我之前在需求方面談到的長期透明度。我可以絕對告訴你，供應量正在增加。它確實在第二季度有所增加，但在第三和第四季還會進一步增加。但它始終是需求同時做什麼的函數？

So I would carefully say, I don't think it is completely easing off this year, and it will still continue somewhat into next year. How long? I don't know. But I don't see this being totally eased off by the end of this year.

所以我要謹慎地說，我認為今年這種情況不會完全緩解，明年仍然會有所緩解。多久？我不知道。但我認為這種情況到今年年底還不會完全緩解。

Our next question is from the line of Chris Caso.

我們的下一個問題來自克里斯·卡索。

I guess, the first question is it is getting a little more clarity on the capacity additions. And it sounds like certainly, there's some capacity coming on, both internally at the foundries in the second half of this year. Does more come on in the beginning of next year as well?

我想，第一個問題是容量增加的情況變得更加清晰。聽起來肯定會在今年下半年在代工廠內部出現一些產能。明年初還會有更多活動嗎？

And the follow-on to that. You talked about the fact that you didn't think that you would be able -- your customers would be able to replenish inventory until the end of the year. Is that meant to say that, by the end of the year, you think you will be fully meeting your customer demand with the capacity additions in place? Perhaps a little more capacity comes next year, which allows you to catch up on inventories. Is that the right way to think about it?

以及後續內容。您談到了這樣一個事實：您認為您的客戶無法在年底之前補充庫存。這是否意味著，到今年年底，您認為透過增加產能就可以完全滿足客戶需求？也許明年會有更多的產能，這可以讓您趕上庫存。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yes, Chris. So this is -- I mean, this is constantly under work, under very hard work. So since this whole situation started, say, towards the end of last year, we are working super hard on all levels to increase capacity, and I just mentioned a few of them earlier. So yes, it is going to continue into next year from a capacity increase perspective. Absolutely.

是的，克里斯。所以這——我的意思是，這需要持續不斷的努力，非常艱苦的工作。因此，自從整個情況開始以來，比如說，去年年底，我們正在各個層面上非常努力地增加容量，我剛才提到了其中的一些。所以，是的，從產能增加的角度來看，這種情況將持續到明年。絕對地。

Peter talked about the 7% CapEx, I just give you one other number. We -- by now, we have already more than $1 billion of firm commitments with long-term supply from our suppliers. So as I said, we are collecting and getting request for noncancelable and nonreturnable orders, long-term orders, from our customers, and we enter into the same commitments in order to secure supply for next year with our suppliers. And there is already more than $1 billion out there, is firmly committed. And that is going to help indeed increase supplies into and over next year.

Peter 談到了 7% 的資本支出，我只是給你另一個數字。到目前為止，我們已經從我們的供應商那裡做出了超過 10 億美元的長期供應的堅定承諾。正如我所說，我們正在收集客戶對不可取消和不可退貨訂單、長期訂單的請求，並且我們做出相同的承諾，以確保供應商明年的供應。目前已經有超過 10 億美元的資金，並已堅定承諾。這確實將有助於增加明年及以後的供應。

But it doesn't stop there, Chris. I mean, this is not -- it's not like a onetime thing. It's constant work and we keep moving it up.

但這還不止於此，克里斯。我的意思是，這不是一次性的事情。這是一項持續不斷的工作，我們不斷進步。

With that, I think from a timing perspective, Jeff, we probably have to get to the end of this session, right?

傑夫，我認為從時間角度來看，我們可能必須結束本次會議，對吧？

Correct, Kurt. That was our last question. Would you like to provide some closing remarks, Kurt?

正確，庫爾特。這是我們最後一個問題。庫爾特，您想發表一些結束語嗎？

Yes. Thanks much, Jeff.

是的。非常感謝，傑夫。

So thank you all for being on the call today. So I trust we could paint a clear perspective on how we see this very continued and very rapid rebound in demand across all of our end markets. We are glad that we brought our Austin factories back online and are now, with full capacity again, shipping. We wanted to make sure you hear us loud and clear that half 2 revenue is going to be above half 1, and this is not just a factor of the $100 million catch-up from the closed factories. Actually, that's the smallest part in this. And we are very confident that we can continue to drive consistent growth with improved profitability levels, and with that, enhance our free cash flow going forward.

感謝大家今天接聽電話。因此，我相信我們可以清楚地了解我們如何看待所有終端市場的需求持續且快速的反彈。我們很高興我們使奧斯汀工廠重新上線，並且現在再次滿載發貨。我們希望確保您能清楚地聽到我們的聲音，即 half 2 的收入將高於 half 1，而這不僅僅是關閉工廠追趕 1 億美元的因素。實際上，這是其中最小的部分。我們非常有信心，我們能夠繼續推動持續成長，提高獲利水平，從而增強我們未來的自由現金流。

I thank you very much for your attention, and speak to you next time. Thank you.

非常感謝您的關注，下次再和您聊聊。謝謝。

Thank you, everybody, for your interest, and that will be the end of the call today.

謝謝大家的關注，今天的電話會議到此結束。