恩智浦 (NXPI) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the NXP Q3 2020 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，感謝您的支持，歡迎參加恩智浦 2020 年第三季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Palmer. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把今天的會議交給你的演講者，傑夫帕爾默。謝謝你。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Calandra, and good morning, everyone. With me on the call today is Kurt Sievers, NXP's President and CEO; and Peter Kelly, our CFO. Call today is being recorded and will be available for replay from our corporate website.

謝謝你，Calandra，大家早上好。今天與我通話的是恩智浦總裁兼首席執行官 Kurt Sievers；和我們的首席財務官彼得凱利。今天的通話正在錄音中，可從我們的公司網站重播。

Today's call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause NXP's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

今天的電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致恩智浦的業績與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。

These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, the macroeconomic impact on the specific end markets in which we operate, the sale of new and existing products, and our expectations for the financial results for the fourth quarter of 2020. Please be reminded that NXP undertakes no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements. For a full disclosure on forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release today.

這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於關於 COVID-19 大流行對我們業務的持續影響、對我們經營的特定終端市場的宏觀經濟影響、新產品和現有產品的銷售以及我們的對 2020 年第四季度財務業績的預期。請注意，恩智浦不承擔公開修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。有關前瞻性陳述的完整披露，請參閱我們今天的新聞稿。

Additionally, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are driven primarily by discrete events that management does not consider to be directly related to NXP's underlying core operating performance. Pursuant to Regulation G, NXP has provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our third quarter 2020 earnings press release, which will be furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K and is available on NXP's website in the Investor Relations section at nxp.com.

此外，我們將參考某些非公認會計原則財務指標，這些指標主要由管理層認為與恩智浦基本核心運營業績不直接相關的離散事件驅動。根據 G 條例，恩智浦在我們的 2020 年第三季度收益新聞稿中提供了非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬，該新聞稿將通過表格 8-K 提供給 SEC，並可在恩智浦網站上查閱在 nxp.com 的投資者關係部分。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Kurt.

現在我想把電話轉給 Kurt。

Thanks very much, Jeff, and a very good morning, and a very good afternoon, everyone. We really appreciate you joining our call today. As most are aware, we did preannounce our quarter 3 results on October 8, with our revenue growth significantly stronger than the midpoint of our guidance across all of our end markets, but particularly in automotive and mobile. From a channel perspective, we began to see a return to more normal contribution between our direct and distribution sales, especially in the automotive end market.

非常感謝 Jeff，大家早上好，下午好。我們非常感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。正如大多數人所知，我們確實在 10 月 8 日宣布了我們的第三季度業績，我們的收入增長明顯高於我們所有終端市場指導的中點，尤其是在汽車和移動市場。從渠道的角度來看，我們開始看到我們的直接銷售和分銷銷售之間的貢獻恢復到更正常的水平，尤其是在汽車終端市場。

In our Auto business, predominantly the U.S. and European car OEMs, which Tier 1 suppliers are biased towards direct fulfillment, did restart production on a broad basis, resulting in strong sales in the European and American regions, as well as continued momentum in China. Only the Japan automotive region appears to be slightly later to rebound, which is primarily fulfilled through our distribution partners.

在我們的汽車業務中，主要是一級供應商偏向於直接履行的美國和歐洲汽車原始設備製造商確實在廣泛的基礎上恢復了生產，從而在歐美地區實現了強勁的銷售，以及在中國的持續發展勢頭。只有日本汽車地區的反彈似乎稍晚一些，這主要是通過我們的分銷合作夥伴實現的。

In our mobile business, a combination of new product ramps and market strength anticipated by specific customers ahead of their new platform launches, contributed to better-than-anticipated results. Taken together, NXP delivered total revenue of $2.27 billion, which is $267 million above the midpoint of our original guidance range.

在我們的移動業務中，特定客戶在新平台發布之前預期的新產品數量和市場實力相結合，促成了好於預期的結果。總的來說，恩智浦的總收入為 22.7 億美元，比我們最初指導範圍的中點高出 2.67 億美元。

Our non-GAAP operating margin was 25.8%, about 360 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance. We experienced good fall through on the significantly higher revenue with our gross margin also better than guidance. In a minute, Peter will provide more insights into our gross margin in his commentary. We also continued to tightly control operating expenses. So we did increase expenses relative to non-executive incentive compensation.

我們的非公認會計原則營業利潤率為 25.8%，比我們的指導中點高出約 360 個基點。我們在收入顯著增加的情況下經歷了良好的下滑，我們的毛利率也好於預期。稍後，彼得將在他的評論中提供有關我們毛利率的更多見解。我們還繼續嚴格控制運營費用。因此，我們確實增加了與非執行激勵薪酬相關的費用。

Now let me turn to the specific trends in our focus end markets. In automotive, revenue was $964 million, down 8% versus the year ago period and showing a 43% sequential increase. This was greater than twice the sequential growth we had contemplated in our guidance. In Industrial and IoT, revenue was $514 million, up 21% versus the year ago period and up 18% sequentially, and it was slightly better than our original guidance. In mobile, revenue was $337 million, up 5% versus the year ago period, up 32% sequentially. And I would also note that we did not experience any pull forwards in mobile because of the shipment ban associated with Huawei.

現在讓我談談我們關注的終端市場的具體趨勢。在汽車領域，收入為 9.64 億美元，同比下降 8%，環比增長 43%。這是我們在指導中預期的連續增長的兩倍多。在工業和物聯網領域，收入為 5.14 億美元，同比增長 21%，環比增長 18%，略好於我們最初的預期。在移動領域，收入為 3.37 億美元，同比增長 5%，環比增長 32%。而且我還要指出，由於與華為相關的出貨禁令，我們在移動領域沒有遇到任何推動。

And lastly, communication infrastructure and other revenue was $452 million, down 4% year-on-year and flat sequentially. This was about $35 million better than our guidance. And of that outperformance relative to our guidance, about half was due to accelerated shipments to Huawei ahead of the ban.

最後，通信基礎設施和其他收入為 4.52 億美元，同比下降 4%，環比持平。這比我們的指導高出約 3500 萬美元。相對於我們的指導，其中大約一半是由於在禁令之前加速向華為發貨。

Now before we turn to the specifics on our Q4 guidance, I'd like to provide you a quick update on our very recent NXP Connect Developers Conference. In today's completely virtual customer support environment, we were extremely encouraged by the truly high level of customer and partner engagement and participation. We had over 15,000 participants from around the world take part in this first ever completely virtual event. Now let me discuss a few of the customer-related highlights during that event.

現在，在我們轉向第四季度指南的具體細節之前，我想為您提供我們最近的 NXP Connect 開發者大會的快速更新。在當今完全虛擬的客戶支持環境中，真正高水平的客戶和合作夥伴參與和參與令我們深受鼓舞。我們有來自世界各地的 15,000 多名參與者參加了這個有史以來第一次完全虛擬的活動。現在讓我討論一下該活動期間與客戶相關的一些亮點。

First of all, our joint announcement with Samsung mobile, underpinning the adoption of our secure ultra-wideband and latest enhanced mobile wallet solutions across both the Galaxy Note 20 Ultra and the new Galaxy Fold platforms, marking the first ever use of ultra-widebands in the Android's world. While we are in the early days of adoption of ultra-widebands, we do expect over the intermediate term to see solid growth also beyond mobile as the technology permeates into the automotive and IoT markets.

首先，我們與三星移動聯合發佈公告，支持在 Galaxy Note 20 Ultra 和新的 Galaxy Fold 平台上採用我們安全的超寬帶和最新的增強型移動錢包解決方案，標誌著超寬帶在全球的首次使用安卓的世界。雖然我們還處於採用超寬帶的早期階段，但我們確實預計，隨著該技術滲透到汽車和物聯網市場，中期內還會出現超越移動設備的穩健增長。

Additionally, we continue to drive innovation in our latest mobile wallet solutions with the introduction of eUICC functionality. This allows the mobile wallet to provide similar network provisioning and profile management, while simultaneously enabling secure payments and access.

此外，我們通過引入 eUICC 功能繼續推動我們最新的移動錢包解決方案的創新。這允許移動錢包提供類似的網絡配置和配置文件管理，同時實現安全支付和訪問。

Now in the automotive field, we were very, very excited to officially co announce our battery management efforts with the Volkswagen Group. NXP's BMS solutions are being adopted across the entire MEB platform of the Volkswagen Group, including the Volkswagen branded ID.3 and ID.4 models, and also in the luxury and performance models, Audi E-tron and Porsche Taycan. Civilian market acceptance of these cars has been very positive, and we are very proud to be a partner in Volkswagen's success.

現在在汽車領域，我們非常非常興奮地正式宣布與大眾汽車集團共同宣布我們的電池管理工作。恩智浦的 BMS 解決方案被大眾汽車集團的整個 MEB 平台採用，包括大眾品牌的 ID.3 和 ID.4 車型，以及豪華和性能車型奧迪 E-tron 和保時捷 Taycan。這些汽車的民用市場接受度非常好，我們很自豪能成為大眾汽車成功的合作夥伴。

Now I will be turning to the specifics of our quarter 4 expectations. Our forward revenue guidance range is again slightly wider than normal as there continues to be uncertainty how the rebound will play out in the face of continued COVID-19 concerns. However, as we mentioned in our last earnings call, we thought Q4 would be stronger than Q3, and that is what our guidance reflects. We see the improvement in demand, which began in Q3 continuing into Q4, both from a broad demand perspective and also from the increased traction of our company-specific opportunities. These include automotive growth opportunities like radar, digital clusters and battery management. In the industrial end market, opportunities include growth of our crossover processes, and connectivity solutions. While in mobile, momentum continues to build for our secure ultra-widebands and secure mobile wallet solutions. We believe the robust second half 2020 results, combined with our strong product portfolio and customer engagements, will continue to yield positive results, and that gives us significant confidence in our growth in 2021.

現在我將轉向我們第四季度預期的細節。我們的前瞻性收入指導範圍再次略寬於正常水平，因為面對持續的 COVID-19 擔憂，反彈將如何發揮仍存在不確定性。然而，正如我們在上次財報電話會議中提到的那樣，我們認為第四季度會比第三季度更強勁，這就是我們的指引所反映的。我們看到需求的改善從第三季度開始持續到第四季度，無論是從廣泛的需求角度來看，還是從我們公司特定機會的增加牽引力來看。其中包括雷達、數字集群和電池管理等汽車增長機會。在工業終端市場，機會包括我們的跨界流程和連接解決方案的增長。在移動領域，我們的安全超寬帶和安全移動錢包解決方案的勢頭繼續增強。我們相信 2020 年下半年強勁的業績，加上我們強大的產品組合和客戶參與，將繼續產生積極的結果，這使我們對 2021 年的增長充滿信心。

From a channel perspective, we will continue our stringent discipline of our distributor channel inventory, and we will maintain our target channel inventory at 2.4 months of supply.

從渠道角度來看，我們將繼續嚴格控制經銷商渠道庫存，並將目標渠道庫存維持在 2.4 個月的供應量。

With that preamble, we are guiding Q4 revenue at $2.45 billion, up about 6% versus Q4 '19. And from a sequential perspective, this represents an increase of about 8% at the midpoint versus the prior quarter.

有了這個序言，我們將第四季度的收入指導為 24.5 億美元，比 19 年第四季度增長約 6%。從連續的角度來看，這意味著中點與上一季度相比增長了約 8%。

At the midpoint, we anticipate the following trends in our business: Automotive is expected to be up in the high single-digit range versus Q4 '19 and up in the low 20% range versus Q3 '20, as we see a continued and substantial rebound from our automotive customers.

在中點，我們預計我們的業務將出現以下趨勢：與 19 年第 4 季度相比，汽車預計將在高個位數範圍內增長，與 20 年第 3 季度相比，預計將在 20% 的低範圍內增長，因為我們看到了持續且可觀的增長從我們的汽車客戶那裡反彈。

Industrial and IoT is expected to be up in the low 20% range versus Q4 '19, and flattish versus Q3 '20, with strength continued in China and across the end market as a whole.

與 19 年第四季度相比，工業和物聯網預計將在 20% 的較低範圍內上漲，與 20 年第三季度相比持平，中國和整個終端市場將繼續保持強勁勢頭。

Mobile is expected to be up about 10% versus the year ago period and up sequentially in the high single-digit percentage range versus Q3, with strength in our key customers and despite the ban on Huawei.

移動預計將比去年同期增長約 10%，並且與第三季度相比，在高個位數百分比範圍內連續增長，儘管我們的主要客戶有實力，而且儘管華為被禁止。

Communication Infrastructure and other is expected to be down in the low single-digit range versus Q4 '19 and versus Q3 '20. The sequential decline is largely due to the restrictions on shipments to Huawei. And additionally, just as an update, very early in Q4, we announced the opening of our innovative gallium nitride factory in Chandler, Arizona. And we will begin revenue shipments later in this quarter, but with no material impact on the business during this quarter.

與 '19 年第 4 季度和 '20 年第 3 季度相比，通信基礎設施和其他設施預計將在低個位數範圍內下降。環比下降主要是由於對華為的出貨量限制。此外，作為更新，我們在第四季度早些時候宣佈在亞利桑那州錢德勒開設我們的創新氮化鎵工廠。我們將在本季度晚些時候開始收入出貨，但不會對本季度的業務產生重大影響。

We do have significant confidence in our growth in 2021, notwithstanding the ban on Huawei. That ban is a clear disappointment as we had strong design win momentum across the product portfolio. We had originally anticipated Huawei would grow to be a strong high single-digit revenue customer in 2021, which would have been a material increase from the current levels.

儘管對華為有禁令，但我們確實對 2021 年的增長充滿信心。該禁令顯然令人失望，因為我們在整個產品組合中擁有強大的設計獲胜勢頭。我們最初預計華為將在 2021 年成為強勁的高個位數收入客戶，這將比目前的水平大幅增長。

Let me conclude. In summary, we are laser-focused on what we can control in order to optimally navigate the improved trends we are currently experiencing. Our first priority is to assure the health and safety of all of our NXP team members having a continued challenging time given the pandemic. And I want to thank them deeply for their determination and hard work, which allows us to successfully navigate the rebound we are experiencing. Collectively, as a team we are striving to facilitate the best possible business continuity with a customer focus on supply chain and R&D execution.

讓我總結一下。總而言之，我們專注於我們可以控制的內容，以便以最佳方式駕馭我們目前正在經歷的改進趨勢。我們的首要任務是確保我們所有恩智浦團隊成員的健康和安全，因為疫情持續充滿挑戰。我要深深感謝他們的決心和辛勤工作，這使我們能夠成功地駕馭我們正在經歷的反彈。總的來說，作為一個團隊，我們正在努力促進最佳的業務連續性，讓客戶關注供應鍊和研發執行。

And with that, I would like to pass the call to Peter for a review of our financial performance before we will turn to your questions. Peter?

有了這個，在我們轉向您的問題之前，我想將電話轉給彼得，以審查我們的財務業績。彼得?

Thank you, Kurt. Good morning to everyone on today's call. As Kurt already covered the drivers of the revenue during the quarter and provided our revenue outlook for the fourth quarter, I'll move to the financial highlights.

謝謝你，庫爾特。今天電話會議上的每個人早上好。由於庫爾特已經涵蓋了本季度收入的驅動因素並提供了我們對第四季度的收入前景，我將轉向財務亮點。

In summary, our third quarter revenue performance was significantly better than planned. Relative to our guidance, we experienced material improvement across all of our end markets. We are pleased that the third quarter was also a return to improved year-on-year revenue performance providing a solid position to build from going into 2021.

總之，我們第三季度的收入表現明顯好於計劃。相對於我們的指導，我們在所有終端市場都經歷了實質性改進。我們很高興第三季度也恢復了同比收入表現的改善，為進入 2021 年奠定了堅實的基礎。

Now moving to the details of the third quarter. Total revenue was $2.27 billion, flat year-on-year and $267 million, above the midpoint of our guidance. We generated $1.14 billion in non-GAAP gross profit and reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 50.1%, down about 360 basis points year-on-year and up 110 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance. Gross margin was better-than-expected because of the higher revenue, more normal environment, given the impact of running our fabs at low utilization levels and a slightly unfavorable mix.

現在轉到第三季度的細節。總收入為 22.7 億美元，同比持平，為 2.67 億美元，高於我們指引的中點。我們創造了 11.4 億美元的非 GAAP 毛利潤，報告的非 GAAP 毛利率為 50.1%，同比下降約 360 個基點，比我們的指導中點高 110 個基點。毛利率好於預期，因為收入增加，環境更正常，考慮到我們的晶圓廠在低利用率水平和略微不利的組合下運行的影響。

Total non-GAAP operating (technical difficulty) [expenses were] $550 million, up $19 million year-on-year and up by $34 million from Q2. This was $15 million higher than the midpoint of our guidance as we increased expenses associated with nonexecutive variable compensation. From a total operating profit perspective, non-GAAP operating profit was $586 million, and non-GAAP operating margin was 25.8%, down about 450 basis points year-on-year, but 360 basis points higher than the guidance due to the increased fall through on higher revenues.

非 GAAP 運營總額（技術難度）[支出] 5.5 億美元，同比增加 1900 萬美元，比第二季度增加 3400 萬美元。這比我們指導的中點高出 1500 萬美元，因為我們增加了與非執行可變薪酬相關的費用。從總營業利潤來看，非美國通用會計準則營業利潤為 5.86 億美元，非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 25.8%，同比下降約 450 個基點，但由於跌幅加大，高於指引 360 個基點通過更高的收入。

Non-GAAP financial expense was $100 million, essentially in line with guidance. Cash taxes for ongoing operations were $29 million, and noncontrolling interest was $4 million, slightly better on a combined basis than our guidance. Stock-based compensation, which is not included in our non-GAAP earnings, was $83 million.

非 GAAP 財務費用為 1 億美元，基本符合指引。持續運營的現金稅為 2900 萬美元，非控制性權益為 400 萬美元，總體上略好於我們的指導。不包括在我們的非公認會計原則收益中的基於股票的薪酬為 8300 萬美元。

Now I'd like to turn to the changes in our cash and debt. Our total debt at the end of the third quarter was $9.36 billion sequentially, and our ending cash position was $3.57 billion, up $300 million due to solid cash generation during the quarter. Net debt was better at $5.79 billion, and we exited the quarter with a trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $2.71 billion. Our ratio of net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at the end of Q3 was 2.1x, and our non-GAAP trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA, net interest -- sorry, 2.1x our non-GAAP trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA. Net interest coverage was 7.8x. And as previously discovered, and after the close -- disclosed and after the close of Q3, we redeemed the $1.35 billion 4.125% notes due 2021 and the $400 million 4.625% notes due in 2022 for a total consideration of $1.83 billion, including the principal, interest and make-whole costs. During the third quarter, we paid $105 million in quarterly cash dividends, and we continue to have a strong balance sheet and excellent liquidity.

現在我想談談我們的現金和債務的變化。我們在第三季度末的總債務為 93.6 億美元，我們的期末現金頭寸為 35.7 億美元，由於本季度的穩健現金產生增加了 3 億美元。淨債務為 57.9 億美元，本季度結束時的 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 為 27.1 億美元。在第三季度末，我們的淨債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 2.1 倍，我們的非 GAAP 過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 淨利息——抱歉，是我們非 GAAP 過去 12 個月調整後的 2.1 倍息稅折舊攤銷前利潤。淨利息覆蓋率為 7.8 倍。正如之前發現的那樣，在收盤後披露和第三季度收盤後，我們贖回了 13.5 億美元、利率為 4.125%、2021 年到期的票據和 4 億美元、利率為 4.625% 於 2022 年到期的票據，總對價為 18.3 億美元，包括本金、利息和總成本。在第三季度，我們支付了 1.05 億美元的季度現金股息，我們繼續擁有強勁的資產負債表和出色的流動性。

Turning to working capital metrics. Days of inventory was 84 days, a decline of 36 days sequentially, which is well below our long-term targets of 95 days as revenue rebounded much faster than anticipated, and we fulfill the increased demand from on hand-inventory.

轉向營運資金指標。庫存天數為 84 天，環比下降 36 天，遠低於我們 95 天的長期目標，因為收入反彈速度遠快於預期，我們滿足了手頭庫存增加的需求。

We continue to closely manage our distribution channel with inventory in the channel at 2.4 months, which is within our long-term targets. Days receivable were 30 days, up 6 days sequentially. Days payable were 55, a decrease of 16 days versus the prior quarter because of the -- because the increased sales were primarily fulfilled from on-hand inventory. Taken together, our cash conversion cycle improved to 59 days, an improvement of 14 days versus the prior quarter.

我們繼續密切管理我們的分銷渠道，渠道庫存為 2.4 個月，這在我們的長期目標範圍內。應收天數為 30 天，環比增加 6 天。應付天數為 55 天，與上一季度相比減少了 16 天，原因是——因為增加的銷售額主要來自現有庫存。總而言之，我們的現金轉換週期縮短至 59 天，與上一季度相比縮短了 14 天。

Cash flow from operations was $527 million, and net CapEx was $68 million, resulting in non-GAAP free cash flow of $459 million, a testament to the strong cash flow generating capability of the business.

運營現金流為 5.27 億美元，淨資本支出為 6800 萬美元，非 GAAP 自由現金流為 4.59 億美元，證明了該業務強大的現金流產生能力。

Turning to our expectations for the fourth quarter. As Kurt mentioned, we anticipate Q4 revenues to be about $2.45 billion, plus or minus about $75 million, again a wider than normal range considering the uncertain environment we continue to navigate. At the midpoint, this is up 6% year-on-year and up 8% sequentially.

轉向我們對第四季度的預期。正如庫爾特所說，我們預計第四季度的收入約為 24.5 億美元，上下浮動約 7500 萬美元，考慮到我們繼續面臨的不確定環境，這再次比正常範圍更廣。在中點，同比增長 6%，環比增長 8%。

We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be about 52.7%, plus or minus 30 basis points. Operating expenses are expected to be about $563 million, plus or minus about $10 million. And taken together, we see non-GAAP operating margin to be about 29.7%, plus or minus about 60 basis points.

我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率約為 52.7%，上下浮動 30 個基點。運營費用預計約為 5.63 億美元，上下浮動約 1000 萬美元。綜合來看，我們認為非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率約為 29.7%，上下浮動約 60 個基點。

We estimate non-GAAP financial expense to be about $84 million and anticipate cash tax related to ongoing operations to be about $36 million. Noncontrolling interest will be about $9 million. And for non-GAAP modeling purposes, we would advise using about 286 million shares.

我們估計非公認會計原則財務費用約為 8400 萬美元，預計與持續運營相關的現金稅約為 3600 萬美元。非控股權益約為 900 萬美元。出於非 GAAP 建模目的，我們建議使用約 2.86 億股。

Finally, I have a few closing comments I'd like to make. Our gross margin guidance for the fourth quarter reflects a continued improvement versus the prior quarter. However, the midpoint is not commensurate with our goal of 55% gross margin and a $2.4 billion revenue run rate. Relative to our Q4 guidance, there is about 150 basis points headwind as a result of the third quarter carryforward of wafer fab underutilization. There's also about 100 basis point headwind for product mix, which is a combination of lower communication and infrastructure revenue and a higher percentage of automotive business to large OEMs through our Tier 1 customers.

最後，我想說幾句結束語。我們對第四季度的毛利率指導反映了與上一季度相比的持續改善。然而，這個中點與我們 55% 的毛利率和 24 億美元的收入運行率的目標不相稱。相對於我們的第四季度指導，由於第三季度晶圓廠利用率不足的結轉，存在約 150 個基點的逆風。產品組合也有大約 100 個基點的逆風，這是由於通信和基礎設施收入較低以及通過我們的一級客戶向大型 OEM 提供的汽車業務比例較高的組合。

With a couple of exceptions, our factories will come up to a more normal level of utilization in the current quarter. And you'll see our internal inventories move up progressively to a more normal level of 95 days over the next several quarters, but we will manage inventory at distribution at the 2.4 months level.

除了少數例外，我們的工廠將在本季度達到更正常的利用率水平。您會看到我們的內部庫存在接下來的幾個季度逐漸上升到更正常的 95 天水平，但我們將在 2.4 個月的水平上管理分銷庫存。

The past quarter has been more than a little surprising. Our automotive business came back much more quickly than we thought it would do, and we've seen real strength in the industrial and mobile end markets. On the other hand, as Kurt mentioned, and for obvious reasons relating to the current political environment, we've seen significant opportunities in the comm infrastructure end market disappear.

過去的一個季度令人驚訝。我們的汽車業務恢復得比我們想像的要快得多，而且我們在工業和移動終端市場看到了真正的實力。另一方面，正如庫爾特所說，由於與當前政治環境有關的明顯原因，我們已經看到通信基礎設施終端市場的重大機會消失了。

Notwithstanding the challenge in communications infrastructure, our fourth quarter guidance still reflects a robust and faster than anticipated rebound in demand. This combined with solid operating margin expansion and the commensurate improvement in cash flow will, in turn, result in our net debt to trailing 12 months EBITDA leverage ratio being at or below 2x by the end of the quarter. Therefore, I am pleased to announce we will likely resume our share repurchase program during the fourth quarter. And we continue to have sufficient capacity on our existing authorization to do this.

儘管通信基礎設施面臨挑戰，但我們的第四季度指引仍反映出需求反彈強勁且快於預期。再加上穩健的營業利潤率擴張和現金流的相應改善，將反過來導致我們的淨債務與過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 槓桿比率在本季度末達到或低於 2 倍。因此，我很高興地宣布，我們可能會在第四季度恢復我們的股票回購計劃。我們現有的授權仍然有足夠的能力來做這件事。

Finally, these are very difficult times. Kurt and I would like to thank all of our colleagues around the world for their commitment to NXP and doing the right thing for our customers. The current period is unprecedented and is extremely difficult. But over the long run, NXP has the right strategy, is in the right markets and has the right products to continue to win.

最後，這是非常困難的時期。 Kurt 和我要感謝我們在世界各地的所有同事對恩智浦的承諾並為我們的客戶做正確的事。當前時期是前所未有的，也是極其困難的。但從長遠來看，恩智浦擁有正確的戰略、正確的市場和正確的產品，可以繼續獲勝。

Now we'd like to open it up to your questions. Operator?

現在我們想向您提出問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

Congrats on the strong results. First thing I wanted to talk about was the automotive side of things. Obviously, a very strong rebound for you and everyone else. But I guess if I look at it as a longer-term basis, inclusive of your fourth quarter guidance and beyond, can you just talk about that delta versus SAAR? It looks like you guys are going to do the better part of 10 points better than SAAR for this year, and you talked about robust growth next year. Can you just specify down what specifically to NXP is occurring in that to allow that outperformance?

恭喜取得了不錯的成績。我想談的第一件事是汽車方面的事情。顯然，對你和其他人來說，這是一個非常強勁的反彈。但我想如果我將其視為一個長期的基礎，包括你的第四季度及以後的指導，你能談談這個增量與 SAAR 嗎？看起來你們今年的表現會比 SAAR 高出 10 個百分點，而且你們談到了明年的強勁增長。您能否具體說明恩智浦在其中發生了什麼以實現出色表現？

Yes. Thanks, Ross. Let me take that one. Yes, clearly, automotive disappeared quickly in the second quarter and came back now very hard in the third and continuing in the fourth quarter. Looking at it from the perspective of comparison against SAAR is exactly what we do. For this year, I'd agree with you, Ross. It looks like we probably come out with maybe a, I don't know, 9 to 7 -- 9 to 10 percentage points decline on the full year. While the SAAR, according to IHS, broadly declines by 18 percentage points. So we will be about 8 percentage points, at least, better than the SAAR. Now that's not totally out of the world because we continue to see our long-term growth in the auto business.

是的。謝謝，羅斯。讓我拿那個。是的，很明顯，汽車在第二季度迅速消失，現在在第三季度強勢回歸，並在第四季度繼續。從與 SAAR 進行比較的角度來看，這正是我們所做的。今年，我同意你的看法，羅斯。看起來我們可能會得出一個，我不知道，全年下降 9 到 7 - 9 到 10 個百分點。而根據 IHS 的數據，SAAR 普遍下降了 18 個百分點。因此，我們將至少比 SAAR 好 8 個百分點。現在這並不是完全不存在的，因為我們繼續看到我們在汽車業務中的長期增長。

To follow the algorithm of SAAR plus 3 to 5 percentage points of semi content growth. And then we want to outgrow that. And if you compare that to how it's going this year, we are on the high end of that, but I think that works and we definitely believe with the content increases, where we also strongly participate with our growth businesses. Like, for example, radar or the eCockpit business or the battery management business. We are participating in this. So the algorithm on the long-term stance, SAAR, plus 3 to 5 percentage points. Content increase is what we think the auto semi market is doing. And that's what we want to outgrow by a factor of, say, 1.5.

遵循 SAAR 的算法加上 3 到 5 個百分點的半內容增長。然後我們想要超越它。如果您將其與今年的情況進行比較，我們處於高端，但我認為這是有效的，我們絕對相信隨著內容的增加，我們也積極參與我們的增長業務。例如，雷達或 eCockpit 業務或電池管理業務。我們正在參與其中。所以算法對長期立場，SAAR，加3到5個百分點。內容增加是我們認為汽車半成品市場正在做的事情。這就是我們希望增長的 1.5 倍。

And I guess my follow-up, just moving over to Peter and into the gross margin side. Very helpful color with a couple of headwinds you have in the fourth quarter, even though you've hit the $2.4 billion side of things. How do we see those rolling off going forward? Underutilization charges seem like they disappear. I know mix can change on a quarterly basis. But what's the trajectory look like between now and even if revenue stayed at [$1.4-and-change-billion] and getting to that 55% marker that you're targeting going forward?

我想我的後續行動，只是轉移到彼得併進入毛利率方面。非常有用的顏色與您在第四季度遇到的一些不利因素，即使您已經達到了 24 億美元的一面。我們如何看待那些滾滾向前的人？未充分利用費用似乎消失了。我知道混合可以每季度改變一次。但是，從現在到收入保持在 [1.4 美元和十億美元] 並達到您未來目標的 55% 標記之間的軌跡是什麼樣的？

Yes, sure. In Q4, we're guiding to 52.7%. So let's say we have exactly the same mix going forward in the same level of revenue. You would expect that to improve by 150 basis points, pretty much off the bat. We're bringing the fabs. They're not quite back to normal in fourth quarter, but they're pretty close, getting up to the 85% level. So that would take us to the, say, the 54.3%, 54.5% level. The issue, I think we have probably the first half of next year, is the drop-off in comm infra. And how quickly auto direct has come up. So -- and it feels like that's about 100 basis points of mix impact. So I think there's 2 things, Ross: one is utilization, I think we can pretty much forget about from Q1 onwards.

是的，當然。在第四季度，我們的目標是 52.7%。因此，假設我們在相同的收入水平上擁有完全相同的組合。你會期望這會提高 150 個基點，這幾乎是一時興起。我們帶來了晶圓廠。他們在第四季度還沒有完全恢復正常，但已經非常接近了，達到了 85% 的水平。因此，這將把我們帶到 54.3%、54.5% 的水平。我認為明年上半年我們可能會遇到的問題是通信基礎設施的下降。以及自動直接出現的速度有多快。所以 - 感覺這大約是 100 個基點的混合影響。所以我認為有兩件事，羅斯：一是利用率，我認為從第一季度開始我們幾乎可以忘記。

I think we'll suffer in the first half from this hit to mix if the mix doesn't change. And of course, we have to hit those revenue numbers. You do have a few things that move around in any one quarter. I'd remind you that Q1, we usually have our price -- annual price reductions, particularly in the auto space. And that can hit us by about 40 basis points. But I would say, from an underlying perspective, I still feel very confident that we should be running 55% or $2.4 billion of revenue. I've been shocked versus where we were 3 months ago, about the speed at which auto came back and the reduction that we've seen in our overall potential for comm infra. But certainly, utilization shouldn't be an issue after the end of this year.

我認為如果混音不改變，我們將在上半場受到混音的影響。當然，我們必須達到這些收入數字。在任何一個季度中，您確實有一些事情會發生變化。我要提醒你，第一季度，我們通常有我們的價格 - 年度降價，特別是在汽車領域。這可能會給我們帶來大約 40 個基點的打擊。但我想說，從潛在的角度來看，我仍然非常有信心我們應該運行 55% 或 24 億美元的收入。與 3 個月前的情況相比，我對汽車恢復的速度以及我們在通信基礎設施的整體潛力方面看到的減少感到震驚。但可以肯定的是，在今年年底之後，利用率應該不會成為問題。

And your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse of Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, first question, I was hoping you could elaborate a bit more on Huawei. What percent customer were they into Q3? And then as part of that question, can you discuss how the embargo there is impacted, if at all, your ramp of your new GaN facility?

我想，第一個問題，我希望你能詳細說明一下華為。他們進入第三季度的客戶百分比是多少？然後作為該問題的一部分，您能否討論一下禁運如何影響（如果有的話）您的新 GaN 設施的坡道？

C.J., yes, I think that, that is an important event for us. So Huawei -- just to clarify, this very stringently, Huawei is not anymore in our guidance for Q4. So the Q4 guidance, which we just gave is completely excluding any revenue to Huawei. Historically, we've said Huawei has been, and I mean that's never been the same in any given quarter, but, say, a low single-digit customer for the company.

C.J.，是的，我認為這對我們來說是一件重要的事情。所以華為——只是為了澄清，非常嚴格，華為不再出現在我們第四季度的指導中。因此，我們剛剛給出的第四季度指導完全不包括華為的任何收入。從歷史上看，我們曾經說過華為一直是，我的意思是在任何一個季度都不是這樣，但是，比如說，對於公司來說，這是一個低個位數的客戶。

For next year, we had actually a very clear view to get to Huawei being a high single-digit customer. And that is actually where it relates to the margin and mix impact, which Peter just spoke about in the -- to the question of Ross before.

對於明年，我們實際上有一個非常明確的觀點，即讓華為成為一個高個位數的客戶。這實際上是與利潤和混合影響有關的地方，彼得剛剛在之前談到羅斯的問題時談到了這一點。

Now the matter of the fact is, of course, that we have applied for licenses with the U.S. government. And we have to see what will be and when granted relative to these license requests for different products we are -- we would be shipping into Huawei.

現在的事實是，當然，我們已經向美國政府申請了許可證。我們必須看看我們的不同產品的這些許可請求將是什麼以及何時授予 - 我們將運送到華為。

And just to follow-up on that. Does this impact how you think about ramping your new GaN facility? And as part of that, is there a margin headwind associated with simply underutilization of that factory?

只是為了跟進。這會影響您對擴建新 GaN 設施的看法嗎？作為其中的一部分，是否存在與該工廠利用不足相關的利潤逆風？

Let me take that one. If you look at our utilization for next year, we have 2 fabs that are not running 85% early on. One is Oak Hill and the other is our Chandler fab. But in terms of what we'd planned, because we talked on the last call about how we were kind of a bit behind where we expected to be. As Kurt has said, we don't expect to see any additional impact from the ramp of the fab.

讓我拿那個。如果你看看我們明年的利用率，我們有 2 家晶圓廠早期的運行率沒有達到 85%。一個是橡樹山，另一個是我們的錢德勒工廠。但就我們的計劃而言，因為我們在最後一次電話會議上談到了我們如何有點落後於我們的預期。正如庫爾特所說，我們預計晶圓廠的擴建不會帶來任何額外的影響。

And your next question comes from the line of John Pitzer from Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 John Pitzer。

Congratulations on the really solid results. Peter, my first question is just on OpEx. This has been anything but a typical year. And clearly, some of the calendar Q3 upside allowed you to raise OpEx for sort of the nonexacts. So I'm just kind of curious, as you look at the calendar fourth quarter run rate, I'm struck by the fact that revenue is well above seasonal. And if there is an OpEx, seasonal OpEx to cadence, OpEx is actually slightly below. So are we now looking at the right OpEx level? And as we go into calendar year '21, how should we think about the puts and takes of COVID-related expenses, both on the plus and the minus?

祝賀你取得了真正可靠的結果。彼得，我的第一個問題是關於運營支出的。這不是典型的一年。很明顯，第三季度日曆上的一些上行空間允許您提高運營支出以應對一些不准確的情況。所以我有點好奇，當你查看日曆第四季度的運行率時，我對收入遠高於季節性的事實感到震驚。如果有一個 OpEx，季節性 OpEx 到節奏，OpEx 實際上略低於。那麼我們現在是否正在尋找正確的運營支出水平？當我們進入 '21 日曆年時，我們應該如何考慮與 COVID 相關的費用的投入和投入，無論是正數還是負數？

I think you can never really pick one quarter because we always have a bunch of masks, either moving in or moving out. For 2021, I'd go back to our comments from last quarter, John. We think $575 million, plus or minus $10 million in any one particular quarter is probably pretty close. I mean, clearly, if our revenue was to grow very substantially, we might be talking about a different number. But from what we can see at the moment, we'd say $575 million plus or minus $10 million.

我認為您永遠無法真正選擇四分之一，因為我們總是有一堆口罩，要么搬進來，要么搬出去。對於 2021 年，我會回到上個季度的評論，約翰。我們認為 5.75 億美元，在任何一個特定季度加上或減去 1000 萬美元可能非常接近。我的意思是，很明顯，如果我們的收入要大幅增長，我們可能會談論一個不同的數字。但從我們目前看到的情況來看，我們會說 5.75 億美元正負 1000 萬美元。

That's very helpful. And then as my follow-up. Kurt, you were very clear in your prepared comments that despite the Huawei headwind, you still feel very good about growth for calendar year '21. I'm wondering if you could just help us understand kind of in order of strength, what gives you that confidence level? And specifically, with Huawei business that you now can't ship to, is there other opportunity to ship to other comm OEMs? Or were those very specific Huawei programs?

這很有幫助。然後作為我的後續行動。庫爾特，你在準備好的評論中非常清楚，儘管有華為的逆風，你仍然對 21 日曆年的增長感覺很好。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們按強度順序理解，是什麼給了您這種信心？具體來說，對於您現在無法發貨的華為業務，是否還有其他機會向其他通信 OEM 發貨？還是那些非常具體的華為項目？

Yes, John. So certainly, the confidence into next year is a carry forward from the company-specific strengths and the rebound we are experiencing right now. So clearly, with the high-impact on the total company from a revenue perspective from automotive, we continue to be very confident into next year that our growth pockets, where we have those leadership positions in Radar, eCockpit and BMS will continue to play out the way we have talked about them in the past. So there is -- we have the design wins on the books. We see actually the end consumer demand for these specific systems, be it in ADAS, be it in electrification, we see that absolutely coming through. So I think the automotive side of things does stand very firm on top of the rebound, which is certainly being forecasted for the SAAR. So I mean, I talked about the negative side of things earlier that the SAAR probably is going to be down like 18% this year. I address is currently prognosing something like 14% up with SAAR next year. And on top of that, we have the content increase in our market share gains in those leadership positions.

是的，約翰。因此，可以肯定的是，對明年的信心是公司特定優勢和我們目前正在經歷的反彈的延續。很明顯，從汽車收入的角度來看，對整個公司的影響很大，我們對明年的增長充滿信心，我們在 Radar、eCockpit 和 BMS 中的領導地位將繼續發揮作用我們過去談論它們的方式。所以有 - 我們在書本上贏得了設計。實際上，我們看到了最終消費者對這些特定係統的需求，無論是在 ADAS 中，還是在電氣化中，我們都看到了這一點。因此，我認為汽車方面在反彈的基礎上確實非常穩固，這肯定是對 SAAR 的預測。所以我的意思是，我早些時候談到了負面的一面，即今年 SAAR 可能會下降 18%。我的地址目前預測明年 SAAR 將增長 14%。最重要的是，我們在這些領導職位上的市場份額增長內容有所增加。

Secondly, certainly, mobile. And as we started to experience now in the third quarter and what continues into the fourth quarter, we see continued very strong traction with our secure mobile wallet, which is also a function of the pandemic ironically because the use of contactless payment is something which even in countries which have been a bit shy so far, is now getting much more traction. And secondly, with the kick off with Samsung, which I mentioned, the secure ultra-wideband, certainly in the mobile space is also seeing a lot of traction.

其次，當然，移動。隨著我們在第三季度開始體驗以及持續到第四季度的情況，我們看到我們的安全移動錢包繼續非常強大，具有諷刺意味的是，這也是大流行的一個功能，因為使用非接觸式支付甚至在迄今為止有點害羞的國家，現在正在獲得更多的牽引力。其次，隨著我提到的三星的啟動，安全的超寬帶，當然在移動領域也看到了很大的吸引力。

Now if you speak about Industrial and IoT, I think we are seeing this year already amazingly strong year in Industrial and IoT, which is also a function of China because we have a large exposure to China. And actually, COVID-19 impact in China, if you will, was history already in the second quarter. So we see their continued growth and that momentum which rides on our crossovers, together with our new connectivity portfolio will continue well into next year.

現在，如果您談到工業和物聯網，我認為今年我們看到工業和物聯網已經非常強勁，這也是中國的一個功能，因為我們在中國有很大的曝光度。實際上，如果您願意的話，COVID-19 在中國的影響已經成為第二季度的歷史。因此，我們看到它們的持續增長以及我們跨界車的勢頭以及我們新的連接產品組合將持續到明年。

So all of these growth elements, John, we really see fully intact into the next year, such that we, of course, miss that revenue to Huawei. But we don't really think this is a big negative. Now how much of that could be compensated by other mobile customers? I don't -- I really don't dare to say, specifically, since some part of it was in the infrastructure side of things, where there is much less competitors.

所以所有這些增長要素，約翰，我們真的看到明年完全完好無損，所以我們當然會錯過華為的收入。但我們並不認為這是一個很大的負面影響。現在有多少可以由其他移動客戶補償？我不——我真的不敢說，具體來說，因為其中一部分是在基礎設施方面，那裡的競爭對手要少得多。

And your next question comes from the line of Craig Hettenbach from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Craig Hettenbach。

You guys continue to do a good job of controlling inventory in the channel and internally. So can you just maybe talk about any signals you're getting just from a sell-through perspective? And your ability to kind of keep inventory at equilibrium despite what's a pretty volatile supply chain?

你們繼續做好渠道和內部庫存控制。那麼，您能否僅從銷售角度談談您獲得的任何信號？儘管供應鏈非常不穩定，您是否有能力保持庫存平衡？

Craig, I mean, on the distributor side, as you have seen and as we -- I think both Peter and I reiterated again, we are absolutely disciplined to the target of the 2.4 months. Now if you ask from a lead time perspective, then I would tell you that clearly, the current demand, the strong demand, which we started to experience in, say, middle of -- started middle of Q3, has extended lead times a little from, say, typically 16 weeks to now maybe 20 weeks, with a few exceptions above that.

克雷格，我的意思是，在分銷商方面，正如你所看到的以及我們 - 我認為彼得和我再次重申，我們絕對遵守 2.4 個月的目標。現在，如果您從交貨時間的角度問，那麼我會清楚地告訴您，當前的需求，我們在第三季度中期開始經歷的強勁需求，已經稍微延長了交貨時間例如，從通常的 16 周到現在可能需要 20 週，除此之外有一些例外。

But no, I think we feel ourselves in a good position, and we also believe, given the environment, it is exactly the right policy to stick to the 2.4 months of distribution in channel inventory.

但是不，我認為我們感覺自己處於有利位置，而且我們也相信，鑑於環境，在渠道庫存中堅持 2.4 個月的分銷是完全正確的政策。

And can I just add a comment on our channel inventory. Clearly, we came down pretty dramatically in Q3 to 84 days, given we'll be kind of shipping everything we make. In Q4, we'll probably stay at the low 80s in Q4, and it will take us a couple of quarters to get back up to 95. And we think 95 is about the right level in channel inventory.

我可以對我們的頻道庫存添加評論嗎？顯然，我們在第三季度大幅下降到 84 天，因為我們將運送我們製造的所有東西。在第四季度，我們可能會在第四季度保持在 80 年代的低位，我們需要幾個季度才能回到 95 歲。我們認為 95 是渠道庫存的正確水平。

Got it. And then just a follow-up on the growth drivers. Kurt, any update? I know you mentioned crossover MCUs, but just curious kind of the type of traction you're seeing for that product, how broad-based is it? And just anything you're doing versus other competitors that you stand out for that product?

知道了。然後只是對增長驅動因素的跟進。庫爾特，有更新嗎？我知道您提到了跨界 MCU，但只是好奇您看到該產品的牽引力類型，它的基礎有多廣泛？與其他競爭對手相比，您所做的任何事情都讓您在該產品中脫穎而出？

Well, I'm saying now with a cautious smile, what really stands out is that we have that product category, Craig, because I continue to not really see any competitive solution, which is coming close. So by the sheer power of having it and by the sheer power of having it now in conjunction with the WiFi portfolio, especially now on the WiFi 6 standard, which -- and I think we talked about it earlier, which we have now software integrated, so the software development environment for our customers is actually one now for the crossovers, together with the WiFi. We do definitely see continued strong traction.

好吧，我現在帶著謹慎的微笑說，真正突出的是我們擁有那個產品類別，克雷格，因為我仍然沒有真正看到任何有競爭力的解決方案，它即將接近。因此，憑藉它的強大功能以及現在將它與 WiFi 產品組合的強大功能，尤其是現在在 WiFi 6 標准上，我認為我們之前已經討論過它，我們現在已經集成了軟件，因此我們客戶的軟件開發環境實際上是現在的跨界車，以及WiFi。我們確實看到了持續的強勁牽引力。

Now this is on a design win level at this perspective, Craig. So I should also be clear that -- I mean the revenue from this is, I don't know, half a year out, a year out, 1.5 years out, depending on what specific industrial segments we are deciding it into. So my measurement point at this stage is clearly the design win traction, which we are seeing and that is really good.

現在，從這個角度來看，這是一個設計勝利水平，克雷格。所以我也應該明確一點——我的意思是，我不知道，半年之後，一年之後，1.5 年之後的收入，這取決於我們決定進入哪個特定的行業領域。所以我在這個階段的測量點顯然是設計贏得牽引力，我們正在看到，這真的很好。

I should maybe also mention that the strong performance of industrial IoT has also been carried in the past quarter by our general purpose MCUs and by stand-alone connectivity products. I mean we got that Marvell connectivity portfolio in. And of course, we also sell it as a stand-alone solution. And also that is seeing good traction.

我還應該提一下，我們的通用 MCU 和獨立連接產品在過去一個季度也體現了工業物聯網的強勁表現。我的意思是我們得到了 Marvell 連接產品組合。當然，我們也將它作為獨立的解決方案出售。這也看到了良好的牽引力。

And your next question comes from the line of William Stein of Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 William Stein。

Guys, really impressive quarter and guidance, both ahead of expectations. There's this cyclical rebound that you're seeing, and I understand the practice of guiding one quarter at a time. But during these times, when we see these sorts of strong recoveries, sometimes they can be driven by customers' interest in building a little bit of inventory. And I guess the point I'm trying to make is sometimes we overshoot to the upside. Notwithstanding your comments about confidence in 2021 generally, should we be thinking about Q1 as sort of normal seasonal quarter? Or do you think because of the dynamics we're seeing in Q3 and Q4 that maybe we should tap that down a little?

伙計們，真的令人印象深刻的季度和指導，都超出了預期。你看到了這種週期性反彈，我理解一次指導一個季度的做法。但是在這段時間裡，當我們看到這些強勁的複蘇時，有時它們可能是由客戶對建立一點庫存的興趣所驅動的。而且我想我試圖說明的一點是有時我們會過度上漲。儘管您總體上對 2021 年的信心發表了評論，但我們是否應該將第一季度視為正常的季節性季度？還是您認為由於我們在第三季度和第四季度看到的動態，也許我們應該稍微降低一點？

Will, I mean maybe Peter also wants to say a few words to this. So first of all, I mean, you know we don't guide Q1 at this stage. I mean this is clearly a Q4 guidance. Secondly, I think the language of normal seasonal in the current environment is just not applicable. I mean I wish it was, but I don't think there is anything like a normal seasonality in the current environment. So I think that doesn't really help for Q1.

威爾，我的意思是也許彼得也想對此說幾句話。所以首先，我的意思是，你知道我們在這個階段不指導第一季度。我的意思是這顯然是第四季度的指導。其次，我認為當前環境下正常季節的語言是不適用的。我的意思是我希望是這樣，但我認為在當前環境中沒有任何正常的季節性。所以我認為這對第一季度並沒有真正的幫助。

Yes. We were talking in kind of preparation for this, Will. And we thought one of the questions we get is kind of how much is inventory restocking versus the market overall. I mean, clearly, Q3 has to have had some impact from inventory restocking. And maybe there's even a little in Q4. But we wouldn't say what our expectation for 2021 assumes that continues to be the case. I mean Q1 is typically a lighter quarter. But it's really, really hard to say what seasonality may or may not be. It's -- as you pointed out, it's such a weird market. And we're low to try and speculate on what the 4 quarters of next year might be sitting where we are today. But it definitely feels a lot better than it did 3 months ago.

是的。威爾，我們正在為此做些準備。我們認為我們得到的問題之一是庫存補貨與整體市場相比有多少。我的意思是，很明顯，第三季度一定會受到庫存補貨的影響。第四季度甚至可能還有一點。但我們不會說出我們對 2021 年的預期假設情況仍然如此。我的意思是第一季度通常是一個較輕的季度。但是真的很難說什麼是季節性的，也可能不是。這是 - 正如你所指出的，這是一個如此奇怪的市場。而且我們很少嘗試推測明年的四個季度可能會坐在我們今天的位置上。但它確實感覺比 3 個月前好多了。

Fair enough and helpful and that ...

足夠公平和樂於助人，而且...

Sorry, let me maybe add on the question of restocking. I mean, of course, with ramps and reramp and rebound of the industry, there is always a certain level of repriming the supply chains. That's perfectly normal. But given the fact that we have a large exposure to distribution business, I think our continued discipline on the 2.4 months, which we had just discussed, gives you also a strong handle that in that area, at least, I mean, we don't overdo. We stick to this, and that makes it a very -- that makes it very clean, I think.

對不起，讓我補充一下補貨的問題。我的意思是，當然，隨著行業的坡道、重新坡度和反彈，供應鏈總會有一定程度的重新啟動。這是完全正常的。但考慮到我們在分銷業務方面的敞口很大，我認為我們剛剛討論過的 2.4 個月的持續紀律也給了你一個強有力的處理，至少在那個領域，我的意思是，我們沒有過分。我們堅持這一點，這使它非常 - 我認為它非常乾淨。

On the direct account side, it's, of course, in the end, for us harder to measure what the stock positions could be. But if we look at the end demand, as the content increase of our products, be it in mobile, or be it in automotive, we think we have a pretty good view on this, that this is not really about restocking, but it's true demand which we are seeing.

當然，在直接賬戶方面，最終我們更難衡量股票頭寸可能是多少。但是如果我們看最終需求，隨著我們產品內容的增加，無論是在移動端，還是在汽車端，我們認為我們對此有一個很好的看法，這並不是真正的補貨，而是真的我們看到的需求。

Idiosyncratic rather than cyclical or maybe more than cyclical. One follow-up, if I can. You have talked about mobile wallet adoption getting to 50%, I think, from the last Analyst Day through the end of a 3- or 4-year period. It seems to me that, that might be tracking well ahead of expectations. If you can provide any update on that, and then now that we have ultra-wideband shipping into handsets, maybe you can comment on the pace of adoption you're expecting there? Is it similar to get to 50% over some number of years? Or is it a different view?

異質的而不是周期性的，或者可能不僅僅是周期性的。一個後續，如果可以的話。我認為，從上一個分析師日到 3 年或 4 年期結束，您已經談到移動錢包的採用率達到 50%。在我看來，這可能遠遠超出預期。如果您可以提供任何更新，那麼現在我們已經將超寬帶運送到手機中，也許您可以評論一下您期望的採用速度？在幾年內達到 50% 是否相似？還是有不同的看法？

Yes. That's fair. So on the mobile wallet, indeed, I think the guidance we gave was 50% adoption rate by the end of next year, so calendar year '21. And yes, we are well on track. I mean let's leave it here with saying this, we will deliver on this promise.

是的。這還算公平。所以在移動錢包上，確實，我認為我們給出的指導是到明年年底採用率達到 50%，即 21 日曆年。是的，我們進展順利。我的意思是讓我們把它留在這裡，我們將兌現這個承諾。

On the secure ultra-widebands, clearly early days, but I think with Samsung, which is very -- I mean they are very strong and very -- they are very determined in building the ecosystem together with us. I think we have a great kickoff in the Android space now. And certainly, we want to see that they will not be the only Android OEM, and that spreads much more broadly quickly. I don't think we are yet in a position to talk about specific adoption percentages by specific times because it's also not only mobile. The adoption is going to start also in automotive next year, and we are now working with a lot of focus also into IoT, which is adding another wave of volume. But again, it's too early days to put firm percentage numbers behind that.

關於安全的超寬帶，顯然是早期的，但我認為三星非常 - 我的意思是他們非常強大，非常 - 他們非常堅定地與我們一起建立生態系統。我認為我們現在在 Android 領域有一個很好的開端。當然，我們希望看到他們不會是唯一的 Android OEM，並且會以更快的速度傳播。我認為我們還不能討論特定時間的特定採用百分比，因為它不僅是移動的。明年也將在汽車領域開始採用，我們現在也將重點放在物聯網上，這正在增加另一波銷量。但同樣，現在將確定的百分比數字放在後面還為時過早。

Congrats again.

再次恭喜。

And your next question comes from the line of Blayne Curtis from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Blayne Curtis。

This is Thomas O'Malley on for Blayne Curtis. Congrats on the nice results. My first one is about the buyback. You indicated that since the trailing 12-month debt-to-EBITDA metric was now a low 2, you guys are going to start buying back. Could you talk about what your mindset is around the framework there? Are you going to continue buying back where you kind of left off before the pandemic? Or just any sort of framework going forward would be helpful given you're restarting that?

這是 Blayne Curtis 的 Thomas O'Malley。祝賀好結果。我的第一個是關於回購。您表示，由於過去 12 個月的債務與 EBITDA 指標現在處於低位 2，因此你們將開始回購。你能談談你對那裡框架的看法嗎？您是否要繼續在大流行之前停止的地方回購？或者如果您要重新啟動它，那麼任何類型的框架都會有所幫助？

Yes. It's really straightforward, we'll buy back the level which keeps us probably at or just below 2x net debt to trailing 12 months EBITDA.

是的。這真的很簡單，我們將回購使我們可能保持在或略低於 2 倍淨債務至過去 12 個月 EBITDA 的水平。

Simple enough. I just wanted to walk through a bit more complicated one than that, I guess. But you mentioned a couple of moving parts into March on the gross margin. You said same mix, same revenue, 150 bps off the bat benefit, but you also pointed to 100 basis points potential mix impact and then some annual price reductions in auto. I guess I understand that you're not guiding Q1 and totally understandable. But could you describe a scenario in which you saw revenue down in Q1 and gross margin still improved? The reason I ask is just that's a bit unique, given your history. Can you walk through if there's any other moving parts on the gross margin we should be aware of?

很簡單。我只是想通過一個比這更複雜的，我猜。但是你提到了三月份毛利率的幾個變化部分。您說相同的組合，相同的收入，150 個基點的潛在收益，但您還指出了 100 個基點的潛在組合影響，然後是汽車的一些年度降價。我想我理解你不是在指導 Q1 並且完全可以理解。但是您能否描述一個您看到第一季度收入下降而毛利率仍然提高的情況？我問的原因是這有點獨特，考慮到你的歷史。如果我們應該注意毛利率上的任何其他活動部分，你能介紹一下嗎？

Okay. So I think there's -- you said 2 slightly different questions. So my comment was really about, can we hit 55% to 2.4%. Okay. And I basically said in the first half, a 2.4% level of revenue with the current mix, we'd probably be more like 54% because of the mix, okay. So that's one question. There's a different question is, okay, going forward from Q4, what's likely to move? So we do 52.7% in Q4. I'll get 150 basis points straight off just because I don't take the utilization, which would take me to 54.2%. But I would assume the same mix. But the comment I made, and I think the thing you have to watch out for is, Q1 typically has our annual price reduction, which can be 30, 40 basis points. So I'll -- to answer your question, even with -- if revenue was slightly down in Q1 over Q4, we'd probably still see a slightly better margin because we get rid of the underutilization headwind in Q4 of '20, okay? But that's -- it's a pretty unusual situation where at the moment with this really heavy underutilization. Does that make sense?

好的。所以我認為有 - 你說的兩個問題略有不同。所以我的評論真的是關於，我們能不能達到 55% 到 2.4%。好的。我基本上在上半年說過，當前組合的收入水平為 2.4%，由於組合，我們可能會接近 54%，好吧。所以這是一個問題。還有一個不同的問題是，好吧，從第四季度開始，可能會發生什麼變化？所以我們在第四季度做了 52.7%。我將直接獲得 150 個基點，因為我不使用利用率，這將使我達到 54.2%。但我會假設相同的組合。但我發表的評論，我認為你需要注意的是，第一季度通常會有我們的年度降價，可能是 30、40 個基點。所以我會 - 回答你的問題，即使 - 如果第一季度的收入比第四季度略有下降，我們可能仍然會看到略高的利潤率，因為我們擺脫了 20 年第四季度的未充分利用逆風，好吧?但那是 - 這是一個非常不尋常的情況，目前這種嚴重的未充分利用。那有意義嗎？

Really helpful.

真的很有幫助。

And your next question comes from the line of Chris Caso from Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Chris Caso。

First question is related to auto market and some what you said in Japan, it sounds like Japan's recovery is lagging a bit. How much of a headwind has that Japanese part of the business been? And presumably, if that normalizes like the rest of auto next year, how much of a benefit would that provide?

第一個問題是和汽車市場有關，還有一些你在日本說的，聽起來日本的複蘇有點滯後。日本的業務有多大的阻力？據推測，如果明年像其他汽車一樣正常化，那會帶來多少好處？

Yes. Chris, yes, my comment was really related to Q3. We see Japan already catching up in the fourth quarter, actually. So I'd say when you then think about the full next year, and now I can only look at what IHS is predicting for the SAAR then actually, Japan is on the same pace and is quite normalized with the other regions. It was more that this year, in the third quarter where we saw now this very sharp return, especially in U.S. and Europe, it started a little later in Japan such that it sits more on the fourth quarter than it was already sitting in the third quarter. But I don't think that there is any reason to extrapolate this into next year.

是的。克里斯，是的，我的評論確實與第三季度有關。實際上，我們看到日本已經在第四季度迎頭趕上。所以我會說，當您考慮明年的完整情況時，現在我只能看看 IHS 對 SAAR 的預測，然後實際上，日本的步伐相同，並且與其他地區相當正常化。更重要的是，今年第三季度，我們現在看到了這種非常急劇的回報，尤其是在美國和歐洲，它在日本開始得晚了一點，所以它在第四季度的時間比在第三季度的時間要多25美分硬幣。但我認為沒有任何理由將此推斷到明年。

Got it. As a follow-up, I just wanted to dig into the commentary about the potential for some inventory restocking and where that may be. And I guess it's safe to say if that were happening, the industrial market would be the most likely area. And obviously, that's the area that's hard to get visibility. And I guess following from that is, do you suspect that there was any restocking in the automotive area? And I presume there that they were coming off of some pretty low inventory levels earlier in the year when the factory shut down. But again, they're on hubs. So I suppose there's probably better visibility there.

知道了。作為後續行動，我只是想深入了解有關一些庫存補貨的潛力以及可能在哪裡的評論。我想可以肯定地說，如果發生這種情況，工業市場將是最有可能的領域。顯然，這是難以獲得知名度的領域。我想接下來是，您是否懷疑汽車領域有任何補貨？我推測它們在今年早些時候工廠關閉時已經擺脫了相當低的庫存水平。但同樣，它們在集線器上。所以我想那裡可能有更好的能見度。

Yes. I mean let me start with auto. Indeed, we have made sure that inventory levels wouldn't be too big because we really had a lot of attention this time in the second quarter when things were falling down to not overship. So even with our direct accounts, we had a lot of one-one discussions to make sure that their order pattern would be somehow compliant with the end demand. So I guess I'd agree with you, there probably wasn't too much of inventory sitting there, which is exactly why I said earlier, some restocking now is just normal to prime the supply chains for significantly higher production rates. I mean they have to do this. There is nothing strange about it.

是的。我的意思是讓我從汽車開始。事實上，我們已經確保庫存水平不會太大，因為我們在第二季度的這個時候確實受到了很多關注，當時事情正在下降到不會出現過剩。因此，即使使用我們的直接客戶，我們也進行了很多一對一的討論，以確保他們的訂單模式在某種程度上符合最終需求。所以我想我會同意你的觀點，那裡可能沒有太多的庫存，這正是我之前所說的原因，現在一些補充庫存是正常的，可以為供應鏈提供更高的生產率。我的意思是他們必須這樣做。這沒什麼奇怪的。

The industrial side of things is a little harder to tell because a lot of the business goes through distribution for us, where we do control, as explained, the distribution inventory in a very transparent way. We have all the systems and all the discipline in place to do this. But we, of course, do not have the visibility into all of the thousands of end customers behind distribution. So it's less easy to say what they possibly are restocking or not restocking. My early take at this stage is, it isn't that much because most of it is anyway in China. And in China, it's not like now suddenly a Q3 or Q4 effect, we have seen growth in China industrial, starting with the second quarter. So Q4 is now the third quarter in a row where it's growing.

事情的工業方面有點難說，因為很多業務都是通過我們的分銷，正如解釋的那樣，我們以非常透明的方式控制分銷庫存。我們有所有的系統和所有的紀律來做到這一點。但是，我們當然無法了解分銷背後的所有成千上萬的最終客戶。因此，很難說他們可能正在補貨或不補貨。我在這個階段的早期看法是，它並沒有那麼多，因為大部分都在中國。在中國，不像現在突然出現第三季度或第四季度效應，我們已經看到中國工業的增長，從第二季度開始。所以第四季度現在是連續第三個季度增長。

Your next question comes from the line of Gary Mobley from Wells Fargo Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Gary Mobley。

Most of the questions have been asked, but I do want to ask one about your battery management system. Now your win with Volkswagen sounds very impressive. Obviously, they're the largest OEM in the world and seem to have the most aggressive EV platform in terms of rollout schedule. So I'm just curious to know where you stand today with BMS sales. If I'm not mistaken, it's somewhere in the tens of millions, you may have maybe 10%, 20% market share. So I'm just wondering if you can give us an assessment of where this business may be in 12 months, in 24 months, just given the Volkswagen win?

大多數問題都已被問到，但我確實想問一個關於您的電池管理系統的問題。現在，您在大眾汽車上的勝利聽起來令人印象深刻。顯然，他們是世界上最大的 OEM，並且在推出計劃方面似乎擁有最激進的 EV 平台。所以我只是想知道你今天在 BMS 銷售方面的立場。如果我沒記錯的話，大概是幾千萬，你可能擁有 10%、20% 的市場份額。所以我只是想知道你能否給我們評估一下這個業務在 12 個月內、24 個月內的情況，就在大眾汽車獲勝的情況下？

Yes. Yes. So Gary, the best way to think about it is think about the $50 million run rate this year, roughly. And what we did say is that we will grow this with twice the sum. So we want to grow twice as fast as the markets which would translate in something like 60% CAGR over the next couple of years. So $50 million this year growing with 60% CAGR over the next couple of years. And we think the associated market is growing at about 30%.

是的。是的。所以加里，考慮它的最佳方式是大致考慮一下今年 5000 萬美元的運行率。我們確實說過，我們將以兩倍的總和增長。因此，我們希望增長速度是市場的兩倍，未來幾年的複合年增長率將達到 60%。因此，今年 5000 萬美元在未來幾年以 60% 的複合年增長率增長。我們認為相關市場的增長率約為 30%。

Now just as a rule of thumb, this Volkswagen win where, of course, there is a high variation of how big it's going to be depending on their success and how quickly they bring the next models and models and models out. But that's maybe half of it, right? So that's why we are super proud of this. I think it's a great testament to the scalability of our system solution to the function of safety of the solution. But this is only 50% of that business going forward. So I mean it's just a part.

現在，根據經驗，這輛大眾汽車獲勝，當然，取決於他們的成功以及他們推出下一個車型和車型的速度有多快，它的規模會有很大的變化。但這可能是一半，對吧？所以這就是為什麼我們對此感到非常自豪。我認為這很好地證明了我們的系統解決方案對解決方案安全功能的可擴展性。但這只是未來業務的 50%。所以我的意思是它只是一部分。

And your final question comes from the line of Raji Gill from Needham & Company.

您的最後一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Raji Gill。

Congratulations on the auto recovery. On the communication infrastructure side, wondering how you're thinking about that next year, given the issue with Huawei? But also kind of your traction in GaN, you're a little bit late in GaN products. It seems to me you're kind of catching up on the -- in Arizona. How do you think about your GaN portfolio relative to the competition and adoption in calendar '21? And how that would positively affect your comm infrastructure business next year?

恭喜自動恢復。在通信基礎設施方面，考慮到華為的問題，想知道明年你會如何考慮？但你在 GaN 方面的吸引力也是如此，你在 GaN 產品方面有點晚了。在我看來，你正在追趕 - 在亞利桑那州。相對於 21 年日曆中的競爭和採用，您如何看待您的 GaN 產品組合？這將如何對您明年的通信基礎設施業務產生積極影響？

Yes, we feel very good about our GaN competitiveness. It's only the starting issue, as you rightfully pointed out that we are coming out a little late, and that's actually a consequence of -- we thought, and we were aligned with our customers that, that would only be needed next year, and that's also what we are delivering, but then they pulled in the requirement. The competitiveness of the product in terms of power efficiency looks very, very good. We did announce a few weeks ago that both the factory as well as the product is being released as we speak. We start shipping small volumes in the later part of this fourth quarter and will really ramp-up in the first quarter of next year.

是的，我們對我們的 GaN 競爭力感到非常滿意。這只是開始的問題，正如您正確指出的那樣，我們推出的時間有點晚，這實際上是由於 - 我們認為，我們與客戶保持一致，那就是明年才需要，那就是也是我們提供的，但後來他們提出了要求。該產品在電源效率方面的競爭力看起來非常非常好。我們確實在幾週前宣布，工廠和產品都在我們發言時發布。我們在第四季度後期開始小批量發貨，明年第一季度將真正增加。

I am quite optimistic on this for next year because if you think about the main customers for this, think about Ericsson, think about Samsung, think about Nokia, CTE. We -- with all of them, we have had historically already very leading positions with our product, be it with LDMOS or be it with massive MIMO. So I think we are in a great position, actually, once we start shipping to wrap it up with gallium nitride. So yes, a little late, but now coming in strong.

我對明年的這一點非常樂觀，因為如果你考慮一下主要客戶，想想愛立信，想想三星，想想諾基亞，CTE。我們——與他們所有人一起，我們的產品在歷史上已經處於非常領先的地位，無論是使用 LDMOS 還是使用大規模 MIMO。所以我認為我們處於一個很好的位置，實際上，一旦我們開始運輸並用氮化鎵包裹它。所以是的，有點晚了，但現在很強大。

And just for my follow-up question on the ultra-wideband kind of moving to other markets outside of mobile. I wanted to see what your thoughts were in terms of, what do you think the next kind of biggest market for UWB will be? And why do you think that?

僅針對我關於超寬帶向移動以外的其他市場轉移的後續問題。我想看看你的想法是什麼，你認為 UWB 的下一個最大市場會是什麼？你為什麼這麼認為？

Yes. We have good visibility into the automotive side because the design win cycles are pretty lengthy. So we are working and have been working this for quite a while already, where we see mid-second half of next year, the first OEMs coming out with ultra-wideband secure access solutions based on NXP.

是的。我們對汽車方面有很好的了解，因為設計獲勝週期相當長。因此，我們正在努力並且已經為此工作了很長一段時間，我們看到明年下半年中期，第一批 OEM 將推出基於 NXP 的超寬帶安全訪問解決方案。

The IoT world, obviously, is much more complicated because it's more smaller customers, a lot of opportunities. But I'd also assume that it is fair to say that through the next year, we will see the first applications being picked up in the IoT space. And think about smart locks, for example, indoor navigation, et cetera, et cetera. So automotive, a lot of visibility, but it goes the typical automotive phase starting mid of next year. IoT, somewhat more complicated because of the multitude of opportunities, but also where we believe next year is -- we see the first volumes.

顯然，物聯網世界要復雜得多，因為它的客戶更小，機會也很多。但我也認為可以公平地說，到明年，我們將看到物聯網領域的首批應用程序出現。想想智能鎖，例如室內導航等等。所以汽車，很多可見度，但它從明年年中開始進入典型的汽車階段。物聯網，由於機會眾多，有點複雜，但也是我們相信明年的地方——我們看到了第一批。

Great. Congrats again and excellent momentum.

偉大的。再次恭喜，勢頭強勁。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you, everyone, for your attendance to the call today, and we look forward to speaking to you next quarter. Thank you very much. This concludes our call.

感謝大家出席今天的電話會議，我們期待在下個季度與您交談。非常感謝你。我們的電話到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。