邁威爾科技 (MRVL) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本季營收達 20.75 億美元,年增 37%,季增 3%,創歷史新高,超出指引中位數;非 GAAP EPS 為 0.76 美元,年增 77%,季增 13%,同樣優於指引
    • Q4 指引營收中位數 22 億美元,季增 6%,年增 21%;非 GAAP EPS 指引 0.74-0.84 美元,毛利率預估 58.5%-59.5%
    • 宣布收購 Celestial AI,強化資料中心光子互連技術,預計 2028 年下半年開始貢獻營收,市場反應正面,AWS 亦公開支持
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 資料中心業務強勁,AI 需求推動年增 38%,預期明年成長超過 25%,2028 年有望再加速至 40%
      • 光電互連(PAM DSP、TIA、Driver)產品線持續領先,1.6T 產品已量產,1.6T Coherent lite 明年出貨,3.2T 技術已展示
      • AEC 與 Retimer 產品設計勝出,明年營收預期倍增,PCIe Gen6 Retimer 已設計進 10+ 個 socket
      • 資料中心交換器業務動能強,12.8T 產品需求穩健,51.2T 產品開始出貨,明年預期超過 5 億美元營收
      • Custom ASIC/XPU attach 設計勝出,2028 年相關營收可望超過 20 億美元,CXL 記憶體擴充產品已進入量產
    • 風險:
      • Custom 業務短期仍集中於少數大客戶,需求波動性較高
      • Celestial AI 收購尚待監管審查,整合與量產時程具不確定性
      • 資料中心成長高度依賴雲端客戶資本支出與 AI 建置週期
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 資料中心營收:Q3 達 15.2 億美元,年增 38%,季增 2%,佔總營收 73%
    • 光電互連業務:光學互連產品營收季增雙位數百分比,1.6T 產品已量產,明年需求強勁
    • 資料中心交換器:今年營收預期超過 3 億美元,明年預期超過 5 億美元
    • AEC 與 Retimer:明年營收預期倍增
    • 通訊及其他事業群:Q3 營收 5.57 億美元,年增 34%,季增 8%;若排除汽車乙太網,年增近 50%
  4. 財務預測
    • Q4 營收預估 22 億美元(±5%)
    • Q4 非 GAAP 毛利率預估 58.5%-59.5%
    • Celestial AI 收購完成後,預計每年增加約 5000 萬美元營運費用,2028 年下半年開始貢獻營收
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 明年營收是否約 100 億美元?長期成長目標如何銜接?
      A: 明年 100 億美元是合理目標,預期每季皆有成長,下半年動能更強。2028 年資料中心營收有望年增 40%,整體公司 2028 年成長約 30%,Celestial AI 等新動能將於 2028-2030 年進一步貢獻。
    • Q: 2 奈米 XPU 及 XPU attach 設計進度與量產時程?
      A: 2 奈米設計案持續增加,將成為主力製程,2028 年起會有明顯產品量產與營收貢獻,團隊執行力強。
    • Q: Celestial AI 2028/2029 年 5 億/10 億美元營收目標,是否僅來自 PF chiplet?
      A: 目標涵蓋 Celestial AI 全部產品,初期主要由 PF chiplet 帶動,但其他應用也在積極推進。
    • Q: Celestial AI 2028-2029 年營收來源是否集中於少數客戶?未來多元化展望?
      A: 初期會由少數大型客戶帶動,已與 Tier 1 hyperscaler 深度合作,未來預期產業廣泛採用,Marvell 內部光子團隊與 Celestial 團隊整合有助推動產業轉型。
    • Q: Custom 業務明年 20% 成長是否保守?長期展望與能見度?
      A: 20% 為穩健基礎預估,主要來自現有大客戶與產品世代轉換,下半年動能更強。能見度提升因客戶需提前規劃,Marvell 亦需配合長期產能與研發規劃。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to the Marvell Technology Inc.'s third-quarter of fiscal year 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

    下午好,歡迎參加 Marvell Technology Inc. 2026 財年第三季財報電話會議。(操作說明)請注意,本次活動正在錄影。

  • I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Ashish Saran, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

    現在我將把會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁阿什什·薩蘭先生。謝謝。你可以開始了。

  • Ashish Saran - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations

    Ashish Saran - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Marvell's third-quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings call. Joining me today are Matt Murphy, Marvell's Chairman and CEO; Willem Meintjes, CFO; Chris Koopsmans, President and COO; and Sandeep Bharathi, President, Data Center Group.

    謝謝大家,大家下午好。歡迎參加 Marvell 2026 財年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有 Marvell 董事長兼執行長 Matt Murphy;財務長 Willem Meintjes;總裁兼營運長 Chris Koopsmans;以及資料中心集團總裁 Sandeep Bharathi。

  • Let me remind everyone that certain comments made today include forward-looking statements, which are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from management's current expectations. Please review the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our earnings press release, which we filed with the SEC today and posted on our website as well as our most recent 8-K, 10-K, 10-Q and other documents filed by us from time to time with the SEC.

    我想提醒大家,今天發表的某些評論包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性,可能導致我們的實際結果與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。請查閱我們今天向美國證券交易委員會提交並發佈在我們網站上的盈利新聞稿中的警示性聲明和風險因素,以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K、10-K、10-Q 和其他文件。

  • We do not intend to update our forward-looking statements. During our call today, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation between our GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures is available in our earnings press release.

    我們不打算更新我們的前瞻性聲明。在今天的電話會議中,我們將提及一些非GAAP財務指標。我們的獲利新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間的調整表。

  • As we discussed in our second quarter earnings call, going forward, we are consolidating our non-data center end markets into a single new communications and other end market. The composition of our data center end market remains unchanged. Our earnings press release for the third quarter reports revenue by end market in both the prior format as well as the new go-forward format.

    正如我們在第二季財報電話會議上所討論的那樣,展望未來,我們將把非資料中心終端市場整合為一個新的通訊和其他終端市場。我們的資料中心終端市場組成保持不變。我們第三季的獲利新聞稿以先前的格式和新的未來格式報告了按終端市場劃分的收入。

  • Please note that today's call will be longer than typical as we will be discussing the acquisition announced today in addition to a number of extensive updates on our business. You may also find additional details on this transaction in the press release and Form 8-K be filed with the SEC today and a presentation posted on our website on the Investor Relations page.

    請注意,今天的電話會議將比平時更長,因為我們除了要討論今天宣布的收購之外,還要介紹我們業務的一些重要最新進展。您也可以在今天提交給美國證券交易委員會的新聞稿和 8-K 表格以及我們網站投資者關係頁面上發布的簡報中找到有關此交易的更多詳細資訊。

  • Let me now turn the call over to Matt for his comments on the quarter. Matt?

    現在我把電話交給馬特,請他對本季的情況發表評論。馬特?

  • Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Ashish, and good afternoon, everyone. Settle in, okay? We have a lot of good stuff to talk about today.

    是的。謝謝阿什什,大家下午好。安頓下來,好嗎?今天我們有很多好東西要聊。

  • For the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Marvell delivered record revenue of $2.075 billion, reflecting a 3% sequential increase and strong 37% year-over-year growth. Revenue was above the midpoint of guidance, driven by stronger than forecasted demand in our data center end market. As a result, non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.76 exceeded the midpoint of guidance by $0.02.

    2026 財年第三季度,Marvell 實現了創紀錄的 20.75 億美元收入,季增 3%,較去年同期成長 37%。受資料中心終端市場需求強於預期的推動,營收高於預期中位數。因此,非GAAP每股收益為0.76美元,比預期中位數高出0.02美元。

  • Excluding revenue from the divested Automotive Ethernet business, the implied revenue growth for Marvell's go-forward business was approximately 6% sequentially and 41% year over year. Momentum in our data center business remains strong with revenue growing 38% year over year, fueled by robust AI demand. We also saw a strong recovery in our communications and other end market, where revenue grew 34% year over year as reported and nearly 50% year over year, excluding the Automotive Ethernet business.

    如果排除已剝離的汽車乙太網路業務的收入,Marvell 未來業務的隱含收入較上季成長約 6%,較去年同期成長約 41%。受強勁的人工智慧需求推動,我們的資料中心業務發展動能依然強勁,營收年增 38%。我們也看到通訊和其他終端市場強勁復甦,報告顯示,營收年增 34%,如果不包括汽車乙太網路業務,則較去年同期成長近 50%。

  • We expect growth to continue in the fourth quarter with total company revenue forecast at $2.2 billion at the midpoint. We expect this momentum to continue throughout next fiscal year and beyond. I will provide more context on our numerous growth drivers later in the call. Before discussing our end market, I'm excited to share details on the strategic acquisition we announced today of Celestial AI, which brings an entirely new disruptive technology, a photonic fabric platform purpose-built for next-generation scale-up interconnect.

    我們預計第四季將繼續成長,公司總收入預計中位數為 22 億美元。我們預計這一勢頭將在下一個財政年度及以後持續下去。我稍後會在電話會議中詳細介紹我們的眾多成長驅動因素。在討論我們的終端市場之前,我很高興地分享我們今天宣布的對 Celestial AI 的戰略收購的細節,這項收購帶來了一種全新的顛覆性技術,一種專為下一代規模化互連而構建的光子結構平台。

  • This acquisition is the latest in a series of decisive moves to further strengthen our data center portfolio. Since 2019, we have continued to increase our focus on data center, divesting our WiFi business and acquiring Avera, Aquantia, Inphi and Innovium. These transactions have driven significant revenue growth and scale and have each proven to be an absolute home run.

    此次收購是我們為進一步加強資料中心業務組合而採取的一系列果斷舉措中的最新一項。自 2019 年以來,我們不斷增加對資料中心的關注,剝離了 WiFi 業務,並收購了 Avera、Aquantia、Inphi 和 Innovium。這些交易顯著推動了收入成長和規模擴大,事實證明,每一筆交易都取得了巨大的成功。

  • This year, following the divestiture of our Automotive Ethernet business, we are continuing to double down on data center with the acquisition of Celestial AI. This positions us to further capitalize on the massive opportunity in accelerated infrastructure. The acquisition is expected to close in the first quarter of next year, subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory reviews in the United States and will remain a separate independent company through the regulatory process.

    今年,繼剝離汽車乙太網路業務之後,我們透過收購 Celestial AI 繼續加大對資料中心的投入。這使我們能夠進一步掌握加速基礎建設帶來的巨大機會。此次收購預計將於明年第一季完成,但需滿足慣例成交條件,包括通過美國的監管審查。在監管審查過程中,收購方將維持獨立運作。

  • AI is reshaping data center architecture at an unprecedented speed. Next-generation accelerated systems are no longer confined to single rack, they are evolving into multi-rack scale-up fabrics that connect hundreds of XPUs in a high-bandwidth ultra-low latency any-to-any fashion. These advanced fabrics demand purpose-built switches interconnects, engineered to deliver the performance and efficiency required at scale, creating a new TAM for companies like Marvell.

    人工智慧正以前所未有的速度重塑資料中心架構。新一代加速系統不再局限於單一機架,它們正在發展成為多機架擴展架構,以高頻寬、超低延遲的任意方式連接數百個 XPU。這些先進的架構需要專門設計的交換器互連,以大規模地提供所需的性能和效率,從而為像 Marvell 這樣的公司創造了一個新的市場機會。

  • Industry analysts are forecasting the merchant portion of the scale-up switch market to approach $6 billion in revenue in 2030. On the interconnect side, we are seeing the dollar content for optics of the same magnitude as a scale-up switch as the optical interconnect attaches to both the XPU and the switch, the opportunity actually doubles, meaning over $10 billion. These are both very large and exciting incremental opportunities for Marvell.

    產業分析師預測,到 2030 年,規模化交換器市場的商家部分收入將接近 60 億美元。在互連方面,我們看到光元件的美元價值與擴展交換機的美元價值相當,因為光互連同時連接到 XPU 和交換機,機會實際上翻了一番,這意味著超過 100 億美元。對於 Marvell 而言,這兩者都是非常巨大且令人興奮的成長機會。

  • As we first evaluated Celestial AI, it reminded us of our early look at Inphi and the products we saw in their PAM technology to transform the scale-out interconnect market. We see even greater potential for Celestial AI's photonic fabric to transform the scale up interconnect market. Interconnect technology is as critical as switching and scale up networks to enable hundreds of XPUs to be tightly coupled together. This is driving a massive increase in the number of links in the network and overall system bandwidth, therefore, creating the need for a fabric which can span across racks.

    當我們首次評估 Celestial AI 時,它讓我們想起了我們早期對 Inphi 的觀察,以及我們看到的他們利用 PAM 技術改變橫向擴展互連市場的產品。我們看到 Celestial AI 的光子結構在改變大規模互連市場方面擁有更大的潛力。互連技術與交換和擴展網路一樣至關重要,它能夠使數百個 XPU 緊密耦合在一起。這導致網路中的鏈路數量和整體系統頻寬大幅增加,因此需要一種可以跨越機架的交換矩陣。

  • Copper-based interconnects used in today's scale-up systems are approaching their fundamental limits in reach and bandwidth, creating compelling need for optical solutions. Celestial AI's photonic fabric technology platform was purpose-built for this inflection. It enables large AI clusters that scale both within and across racks using a high bandwidth, low latency, low power and cost-effective optical fabric. This breakthrough enables a true optical solution with greater than 2 times the power efficiency of copper interconnects, but with far longer each and significantly higher bandwidth.

    當今規模化系統中使用的銅基互連在傳輸距離和頻寬方面正接近其根本極限,因此迫切需要光解決方案。Celestial AI 的光子織物技術平台正是為因應這項變革而專門打造的。它利用高頻寬、低延遲、低功耗和經濟高效的光纖架構,實現了機架內部和機架之間的大型 AI 叢集擴展。這項突破實現了真正的光互連解決方案,其功率效率是銅互連的兩倍以上,但每條線路的長度卻更長,頻寬也顯著提高。

  • In addition to exceptionally low power consumption, Celestial AI solution provides nanosecond class latency and excellent thermal stability, which enables deeper levels of optical interconnectivity into XPUs and switch systems. The thermal stability of Celestial AI's photonic fabric technology is a significant competitive differentiator. It enables reliable operation in the extreme thermal environments created by large multi-kilowatt XPUs.

    除了極低的功耗外,Celestial AI 解決方案還具有奈秒的延遲和出色的熱穩定性,從而能夠將光互連更深層地整合到 XPU 和交換系統中。Celestial AI的光子織物技術具有顯著的熱穩定性,這是一項重要的競爭優勢。它能夠在大型多千瓦級 XPU 產生的極端熱環境下可靠運作。

  • This allows the photonics technology to be co-packaged vertically with the high-power XPUs and switches in a 3D package, enabling the photonic connection to be made directly into the XPU rather than from the edge of the die. This stands in sharp contrast to many other CPO implementations for the photonics engine sits adjacent to the XPU and must connect at the die edge. Celestial AI's approach results in a more compact and integrated solution, freeing up highly valuable die edge beachfront which can be repurposed to significantly increase the amount of HBM within the XPU package.

    這樣一來,光子技術就可以與高功率 XPU 和開關垂直封裝在 3D 封裝中,從而使光子連接可以直接連接到 XPU,而不是從晶片邊緣連接。這與許多其他 CPO 實現方式形成鮮明對比,因為光子引擎位於 XPU 旁邊,並且必須在晶片邊緣連接。Celestial AI 的方法可以實現更緊湊、更整合的解決方案,釋放出非常寶貴的晶片邊緣空間,這些空間可以重新利用,從而顯著增加 XPU 封裝內的 HBM 數量。

  • Eliminating beachfront I/O constraints also significantly increases the amount of package bandwidth possible for XPUs and switch systems. Celestial AI's first-generation product is a photonic fabric chiplet or PF chiplet, which integrates all the required electrical and optical components, including drivers, TIAs, equalizers, SerDes, microcontrollers, modulators, photodiodes and waveguides, all into a compact form factor.

    消除海濱 I/O 限制還可以顯著增加 XPU 和交換系統可實現的封裝頻寬。Celestial AI 的第一代產品是光子結構晶片或 PF 晶片,它將所有必需的電氣和光學組件(包括驅動器、TIA、均衡器、SerDes、微控制器、調製器、光電二極管和波導)整合到一個緊湊的外形尺寸中。

  • This is the industry's first scale-up optical solution delivering an unprecedented 16 terabits per second of bandwidth in a single chiplet, 10 times the capacity of today's state-of-the-art 1.6T ports used in scale-out applications. Its compact form factor allows multiple PF chiplets to be co-packaged with XPUs and the scale-up switches on the other side of the link to further increase total bandwidth. Celestial AI is deeply engaged with multiple hyperscalers and ecosystem partners who recognize the disruptive potential of this technology.

    這是業界首個可擴展光解決方案,在單一晶片中提供前所未有的每秒 16 太比特頻寬,是目前橫向擴展應用中使用的最先進的 1.6T 連接埠容量的 10 倍。其緊湊的外形尺寸允許將多個 PF 晶片與 XPU 和鏈路另一側的擴展交換器共同封裝,以進一步提高總頻寬。Celestial AI 與多家超大規模資料中心營運商和生態系統合作夥伴建立了深入的合作關係,這些合作夥伴都認識到這項技術的顛覆性潛力。

  • Notably, Celestial AI has already secured a major design win with one of the world's largest hyperscalers who plans to use Celestial AI's PF chiplets in its next-generation scale-up architecture. These PF chiplets will be co-packaged into both the hyperscalers custom XPUs and the scale of switches providing connectivity. This is expected to be the industry's first large-scale commercial deployment of optical interconnects for scale-up connectivity.

    值得注意的是,Celestial AI 已經與全球最大的超大規模資料中心營運商之一達成了一項重要的設計合作,該營運商計劃在其下一代擴展架構中使用 Celestial AI 的 PF 晶片。這些 PF 晶片將被共同封裝到超大規模資料中心的客製化 XPU 和提供連接的交換器中。預計這將是業界首次大規模商業部署用於擴展連接的光互連技術。

  • Beyond connecting XPUs and scale-up networks, the photonic fabric technology platform can enable a wide range of transformational applications over time.

    除了連接 XPU 和擴展網路之外,光子結構技術平台還可以隨著時間的推移實現各種變革性應用。

  • First is a pooled memory appliance that uses Celestial AI's photonic fabric to optically connect multiple XPUs to large shared external disaggregated memory bank. A second use case for Celestial AI's photonic fabric to replace traditional electrical die-to-die connections in multi-die packages. This is just the beginning of a broad set of new applications which can be enabled from this technology.

    首先是一個池化記憶體設備,它利用 Celestial AI 的光子結構,將多個 XPU 光學連接到大型共享外部解耦記憶體庫。Celestial AI 的光子結構第二個應用場景是取代多晶片封裝中傳統的晶片間電連接。這僅僅是這項技術所能實現的許多新應用的開端。

  • After close, we expect meaningful revenue contributions from Celestial AI to begin in the second half of fiscal 2028. Our base case forecast show Celestial AI's revenue reaching a $500 million annualized run rate in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2028, doubling to a $1 billion run rate by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2029. Following the close of the transaction, we look forward to welcoming the Celestial AI team to Marvell. Celestial AI brings one of the industry's strongest photonic interconnect engineering groups with deep expertise in optics, advanced packaging and high-speed interconnect architecture and systems.

    交易完成後,我們預計 Celestial AI 將於 2028 財年下半年開始產生實質的收入貢獻。我們的基本預測顯示,Celestial AI 的營收將在 2028 財年第四季達到 5 億美元的年化運行率,並在 2029 財年第四季翻一番,達到 10 億美元的運行率。交易完成後,我們期待 Celestial AI 團隊加入 Marvell。Celestial AI 擁有業界最強大的光子互連工程團隊之一,在光學、先進封裝和高速互連架構及系統方面擁有深厚的專業知識。

  • In addition, the CEO, founders and key executives from Celestial AI will assume leadership roles at Marvell, continuing our successful integration blueprint from prior acquisitions. These leaders have been at the forefront of innovation and scale up switching and photonic interconnects and their technical depth and strategic insight will play an important role in shaping Marvell's next phase of growth.

    此外,Celestial AI 的執行長、創辦人和主要主管將在 Marvell 擔任領導職務,延續我們先前收購中成功的整合藍圖。這些領導者一直處於創新和規模化交換器及光子互連技術的前沿,他們的技術深度和策略洞察力將在塑造 Marvell 的下一個成長階段中發揮重要作用。

  • Okay. Now let me transition back to Marvell's current business and outlook. As you may recall, on September 24, I hosted a virtual call with investors where I outlined a framework for Marvell's revenue growth for fiscal 2027. At that time, we indexed our data center growth potential to cloud CapEx, which was expected to grow 18% next year. Since then, cloud CapEx growth expectations have increased to over 30%. Additionally, we have seen strong demand increases for our products for next year.

    好的。現在讓我回到 Marvell 目前的業務和前景上來。您可能還記得,9 月 24 日,我主持了一次與投資者的線上電話會議,會上我概述了 Marvell 2027 財年的營收成長框架。當時,我們將資料中心的成長潛力與雲端資本支出掛鉤,預計明年雲端資本支出將成長 18%。自那時以來,雲端運算資本支出成長預期已增至 30% 以上。此外,我們看到明年市場對我們產品的需求強勁成長。

  • As a result, our outlook for next fiscal year is even stronger than the expectations we discussed in September. We expect our Interconnect business, which is roughly half our overall data center revenue to continue growing faster than cloud CapEx next year even with the higher outlook. We expect our custom business, roughly 1/4 of our overall data center revenue to grow by at least 20% next year, also from higher than prior expectations.

    因此,我們對下一財年的展望甚至比我們在9月份討論的預期還要樂觀。我們預計,即使前景更加樂觀,明年占我們資料中心總收入約一半的互連業務仍將繼續比雲端資本支出增長更快。我們預計,占我們資料中心總收入約 1/4 的客製化業務明年將成長至少 20%,也高於先前的預期。

  • As a reminder, in the near term, this business remains tied to a few specific sockets. We expect custom growth next fiscal year to be higher in the second half and do not expect any air pockets in custom revenue. Next year's custom revenue forecast comprehends a transition to a next-generation XPU at a large customer. And I would note that we already have purchase orders for the entirety of next fiscal year's current forecast for this next-generation program.

    需要提醒的是,在短期內,這項業務仍然與幾個特定的插座相關聯。我們預計下一財年下半年客戶成長將更加強勁,並且預期客戶收入不會有任何波動。明年的客製化收入預測包含了大客戶向下一代 XPU 的過渡。我還要指出,我們已經為下一代專案下個財政年度的當前預測做好了全部採購訂單。

  • Our revenue forecast for this program remained consistent with our prior expectations. As we look beyond fiscal '27, we have several high-volume customer designs in development with meaningful revenue expected from these programs in fiscal 2028, consistent with our prior communications. For the remaining quarter of our data center business which includes storage, switching and other products, we now expect revenue to grow by at least 15% next year, up from our prior expectation of 10% growth, driven in particular from increased demand for our switching products.

    我們對該項目的收入預測與先前的預期保持一致。展望 2027 財年之後,我們正在開發幾個大批量客戶設計,預計這些項目將在 2028 財年帶來可觀的收入,這與我們先前的溝通一致。對於我們資料中心業務(包括儲存、交換和其他產品)的剩餘季度,我們現在預計明年收入將增加至少 15%,高於我們先前預期的 10% 的成長,這主要得益於對我們交換產品需求的增加。

  • Adding all of this up, we now expect Marvell's data center revenue to grow year over year by more than 25% next fiscal year. Please note that this forecast does not include any revenue from the pending acquisition of Celestial AI. And for our communications and other end market, we continue to expect 10% revenue growth next year. Putting it all together, we are looking forward to a strong fiscal 2027. Let me provide more details for each of our end markets.

    綜合以上因素,我們現在預計 Marvell 的資料中心營收將在下一個財年年增超過 25%。請注意,此預測不包括即將完成的對 Celestial AI 的收購所帶來的任何收入。對於我們的通訊和其他終端市場,我們仍然預計明年收入將成長 10%。綜合所有因素,我們期待2027財年能有強勁的業績。讓我詳細介紹一下我們各個終端市場的狀況。

  • In our data center end market, we delivered record third quarter revenue of $1.52 billion, representing 2% sequential growth and 38% year-over-year growth. Revenue exceeded our guidance for flat sequential performance driven by increased demand across our networking portfolio. Our industry-leading PAM DSPs, TIAs and drivers continue to see strong demand, with revenue from our optical interconnect businesses growing by double digits sequentially on a percentage basis.

    在我們的資料中心終端市場,我們第三季營收創下歷史新高,達到 15.2 億美元,季增 2%,年增 38%。受網路產品組合需求成長的推動,營收超過了我們先前預期的環比持平業績。我們業界領先的 PAM DSP、TIA 和驅動器繼續保持強勁的需求,光互連業務的收入按百分比環比增長兩位數。

  • Our data center storage and switch businesses also posted double-digit sequential revenue growth on a percentage basis. As expected, this strength was partially offset by a sequential decline in our custom revenue due to lumpiness in demand.

    我們的資料中心儲存和交換器業務也實現了兩位數的環比營收成長(以百分比計算)。正如預期的那樣,由於需求波動,我們的客製化收入環比下降,部分抵消了這一成長勢頭。

  • Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect revenue growth from our data center end market to accelerate growing sequentially in the high single digits on a percentage basis and approximately 20% year over year. This growth is expected to be driven by a rebound in custom and continued growth in interconnect, switching and storage.

    展望第四季度,我們預期資料中心終端市場的營收成長將加速,季增成長率將達到較高的個位數,年增約 20%。預計這一增長將由客製化需求的復甦以及互連、交換和儲存領域的持續成長所推動。

  • Let me now highlight broader trends we're seeing both our established data center businesses and our newer growth initiatives. I'll start with our interconnect business, where we offer the industry's broadest and most comprehensive high-speed connectivity portfolio. As our PAM DSP products enter into their fifth year of 800-gig production, demand for our solutions continues to accelerate underscoring strength of the platform we have built through more than a decade of sustained investment in core technology. Our playbook is simple.

    現在,我想重點介紹我們在現有資料中心業務和新興成長計劃中看到的更廣泛的趨勢。我先從我們的互連業務說起,我們提供業界最廣泛、最全面的高速連接產品組合。隨著我們的 PAM DSP 產品進入 800G 量產的第五年,對我們解決方案的需求持續增長,這凸顯了我們透過十多年來對核心技術的持續投資所構建的平台的強大實力。我們的策略很簡單。

  • First to market, first to ramp with timely follow-up optimized solutions to maintain leadership. We did this at 400 gig, 800 gig and now 1.6T, where we established early leadership with our first 5-nanometer solution, which sampled in February 2024, we then accelerated the launch of our optimized 1.6T solution and sampled our 3-nanometer product just one year later in February 2025.

    率先進入市場,率先推出及時的後續優化解決方案,以保持領先地位。我們在 400 GIG、800 GIG 和現在的 1.6T 級別都做到了這一點,我們憑藉首款 5 奈米解決方案確立了早期領先地位,該解決方案於 2024 年 2 月進行樣品測試,然後我們加速推出了優化的 1.6T 解決方案,並在一年後的 2025 年 2 月進行了奈米產品的 32 月 2025 年 2 月的奈米產品測試。

  • As a result, we are enabling volume production of pluggable 1.6T transceivers across the industry. We began shipping our 1.6T products in the second half of this fiscal year and are seeing exceptionally strong demand heading into next year. This consistent execution enables us to secure qualifications at major customers well ahead of competitors, reinforcing market leadership. While 1.6T has a long life cycle ahead, we have already demonstrated at the Optical Fiber Conference this past April, 400 gig per lane technology to drive the next industry transition to 3.2T.

    因此,我們正在推動整個產業大規模生產可插拔的 1.6T 收發器。我們在本財年下半年開始交付 1.6T 產品,並且看到明年市場需求異常強勁。這種持續穩定的執行力使我們能夠比競爭對手更早獲得主要客戶的資格認證,從而鞏固市場領導地位。雖然 1.6T 的生命週期還很長,但我們已經在今年 4 月的光纖會議上展示了每通道 400 G 的技術,以推動產業向 3.2T 的下一個轉型。

  • The demonstration was on 3-nanometer technology but we expect production deployments which are expected in calendar 2028 to require 2-nanometer solutions to optimize module power. In addition to our PAM portfolio, we are also enabling longer reach connectivity with our Coherent lite solutions to support campus-wide data centers in the era of million GPU AI clusters. We introduced our 1.6T Coherent lite solution last year, expect to start shipping next year, and we are on track to deliver our 3.2T solution the year after.

    此次展示採用的是 3 奈米技術,但我們預計在 2028 年即將投產的產品部署將需要 2 奈米解決方案來優化模組功率。除了我們的 PAM 產品組合外,我們還透過 Coherent lite 解決方案實現了更遠距離的連接,以支援百萬 GPU AI 集群時代校園級資料中心的發展。我們去年推出了 1.6T Coherent lite 解決方案,預計明年開始出貨,我們正按計劃在後年交付 3.2T 解決方案。

  • Now complementing our DSPs, our high-performance analog TIAs and drivers remain foundational to our electro optics leadership. Our TIAs have a significant performance lead at 1.6T, and we are seeing strong broad-based demand for our products, which are enabling the entire ecosystem. We have also secured several LPO sockets across multiple hyperscalers and are leading this emerging category as well, although deployments remain relatively small today in the context of a very large transceiver market.

    現在,我們的高效能類比TIA和驅動器與我們的DSP相輔相成,仍然是我們光電領域領先地位的基礎。我們的TIA在性能上擁有顯著優勢,達到1.6T,我們看到市場對我們的產品有著強勁的廣泛需求,這為整個生態系統提供了支援。我們還獲得了多個超大規模資料中心的 LPO 插槽,並且在這個新興類別中也處於領先地位,儘管在目前龐大的收發器市場中,部署規模仍然相對較小。

  • Turning to two of our newer interconnect growth drivers, AECs and retimers. Both markets are undergoing a shift to high-speed PAM-based solutions, an inflection point that is perfectly aligned to Marvell's strengths. For the past year, we've been collaborating closely with the cable ecosystem to enable 100 and 200 gig per lane AECs and we are now on the cusp of substantial product ramps. We have secured design wins with significant share positions at two Tier 1 US hyperscalers, along with multiple wins at emerging hyperscalers.

    接下來,我們來談談兩個較新的互連成長驅動因素:AEC 和重定時器。這兩個市場都在向高速 PAM 解決方案轉變,這是一個轉捩點,與 Marvell 的優勢完美契合。過去一年,我們與有線電視生態系統密切合作,實現了每通道 100 和 200 Gbps 的 AEC,現在我們即將迎來大規模的產品量產。我們在兩家美國一級超大規模資料中心獲得了重要的市場份額,並在多家新興超大規模資料中心贏​​得了設計專案。

  • We are seeing strong demand for our AEC DSPs, and we expect our share to continue to grow as PAM-based 100 and 200-gig technology becomes dominant. Our PCIe Gen6 retimers are also gaining broad traction. We are currently engaged with more than 30 customers and partners, including hyperscalers, cable partners and system OEMs and ODMs. We already designed in more than 10 sockets, and we expect to enter production in the second half of next year with full revenue contribution in fiscal 2028. We expect our AEC and retimer revenue in aggregate to more than double from this year to next year.

    我們看到市場對我們的 AEC DSP 有強勁的需求,我們預計隨著基於 PAM 的 100 和 200 千兆技術的普及,我們的市場份額將繼續增長。我們的 PCIe Gen6 重定時器也獲得了廣泛的認可。我們目前與 30 多家客戶和合作夥伴合作,其中包括超大規模資料中心營運商、電纜合作夥伴以及系統 OEM 和 ODM 廠商。我們已經設計了超過 10 個插座,預計明年下半年投產,並在 2028 財年實現全面營收。我們預計,從今年到明年,我們的AEC和​​重定時器收入總和將增加一倍以上。

  • Turning to our data center switching business which continues to gain momentum. We expect revenue to exceed $300 million this fiscal year. We expect strong sustained demand for 12.8T products, reflecting our key customers' plans to rely on 12.8T as a workhorse in their scale-out network for several more years. In parallel, we've begun shipping our next-generation 51.2T products with a strong ramp expected next year.

    接下來談談我們持續成長的資料中心交換器業務。我們預計本財年營收將超過3億美元。我們預計對 12.8T 產品的需求將持續強勁,這反映出我們的主要客戶計劃在未來幾年內繼續依賴 12.8T 作為其橫向擴展網路中的主力設備。同時,我們已經開始交付下一代 51.2T 產品,預計明年將實現強勁的產能爬坡。

  • As a result, we now expect our day center switch revenue to surpass $500 million next fiscal year faster than what I had indicated last quarter. We will also introduce our 100T products next year as we continue to execute our long-term road map. We are also accelerating our scale-up switch efforts. These next-generation solutions are complex as 100T scale-out switches with high radix supporting up to 576 ports. We are fast tracking our scale-up switch development by leveraging our in-house high-speed, low-power SerDes and experience in developing extremely large reticle size chips.

    因此,我們現在預計,下一財年我們的日間中心交換機收入將比我上個季度預測的更快超過 5 億美元。明年,我們將繼續執行長期發展路線圖,推出 100T 產品。我們也在加快擴大轉換規模的腳步。這些新一代解決方案非常複雜,例如支援高達 576 個連接埠的 100T 橫向擴展交換機,具有高基數。我們正在利用我們內部的高速、低功耗 SerDes 以及在開發超大尺寸光罩晶片方面的經驗,加快我們的規模交換器開發。

  • We are deeply engaged with key customers and partners and are on track to sample our UALink 115T and 57T solutions in the second half of fiscal 2027 with volume production expected in fiscal 2028. In parallel with our UALink development, we are also collaborating closely with key customers under ESUN solutions, completing a scale-up road map to address both standards.

    我們與主要客戶和合作夥伴保持密切的聯繫,並預計在 2027 財年下半年推出 UALink 115T 和 57T 解決方案的樣品,預計在 2028 財年實現量產。在開發 UALink 的同時,我們也與 ESUN 解決方案下的主要客戶密切合作,制定擴展路線圖以滿足這兩個標準的需求。

  • Turning to our custom business. We expect accelerated growth over the next several years. fueled by our growing portfolio of design wins. At our custom event in June, we disclosed a total of 18 XPU and XPO attach socket design wins. Several of these are already in volume production with the remainder on track to ramp over the next couple of years. Since that event, our team has secured additional custom sockets, which represent more than 10% of the $75 billion lifetime revenue opportunity funnel we outlined in June.

    轉向我們的客製化業務。我們預計未來幾年將實現加速成長,這主要得益於我們不斷增加的設計項目。在六月的客製化活動中,我們公佈了總共 18 個 XPU 和 XPO 連接插槽設計得標項目。其中一些產品已經投入大量生產,其餘產品也將在未來幾年逐步提高產量。自從那件事發生以來,我們的團隊已經獲得了額外的客製化插槽,這占我們在 6 月概述的 750 億美元終身收入機會管道的 10% 以上。

  • These new wins include multiple XPU attached sockets and XPU, an emerging hyperscaler and most recently, a design win for an electrical I/O chiplet inside an XPU. This is a new trend we see emerging where customers and partners are partnering with Marvell to gain access to our high-performance networking technology to be integrated along with their core compute engines within multi-die packages which are becoming more prevalent in a reticle size constrained world.

    這些新贏得的項目包括多個 XPU 連接插槽和 XPU、新興的超大規模資料中心,以及最近贏得的 XPU 內部電氣 I/O 晶片的設計項目。我們看到一種新的趨勢正在興起,客戶和合作夥伴正在與 Marvell 合作,以獲得我們的高效能網路技術,並將其與他們的核心運算引擎整合到多晶片封裝中,這在光罩尺寸受限的世界中變得越來越普遍。

  • This provides Marvell another avenue for custom growth and sockets, which were otherwise not available to us as full XPUs. Now let me provide additional perspective on the rapidly developing XPU attach market. These attached devices offload specific functions such as network I/O, memory expansion and security, memory expansion and security from XPUs, GPUs and CPUs, freeing them up to exclusively focused scarce compute resources on the primary AI workload.

    這為 Marvell 提供了另一個客製化成長和插槽的途徑,而這些原本是完整的 XPU 所不具備的。現在讓我從另一個角度來談談快速發展的 XPU 外接市場。這些附加設備將網路 I/O、記憶體擴展和安全性等特定功能從 XPU、GPU 和 CPU 中卸載出來,使它們能夠將稀缺的運算資源專門用於主要的 AI 工作負載。

  • We now have more than 15 XPU attach wins, and today, let me highlight two major use cases emerging across multiple hyperscalers as they architect their next-generation custom accelerated infrastructure. The first use case is for custom foundational and Smart NICs, and Marvell has already secured multiple design wins across several hyperscalers.

    我們現在已經贏得了超過 15 個 XPU 附加項目,今天,我想重點介紹兩個主要用例,這兩個用例正在多個超大規模資料中心建立其下一代客製化加速基礎設施。第一個應用場景是客製化的基礎網路卡和智慧網卡,Marvell 已經贏得了多家超大規模資料中心的多個設計訂單。

  • Our customers plan to attach these NICs, not only to their custom accelerators, but increasingly to their broader AI server fleets, which at large hyperscalers can exceed 1 million units or more annually. The second use case we are seeing emerge in the XPU attached market is for CXL-based products that enable memory expansion and acceleration to overcall the memory wall challenge.

    我們的客戶計劃將這些網路卡不僅連接到他們的客製化加速器上,而且越來越多地連接到他們更廣泛的 AI 伺服器叢集上,大型超大規模資料中心每年的 AI 伺服器叢集數量可能超過 100 萬台或更多。我們在 XPU 附加市場中看到的第二個用例是基於 CXL 的產品,這些產品能夠實現記憶體擴展和加速,從而克服記憶體牆的挑戰。

  • We made early strategic investments in CXL several years ago, and we have now secured five unique sockets across two Tier 1 hyperscalers -- US hyperscalers and are deeply engaged with the third. The first custom CXL design win started shipping already in the first quarter of this year and is entering volume production now. A second socket focused on near-memory compute is expected to enter production a year from now.

    幾年前,我們對 CXL 進行了早期策略投資,現在我們已經在兩家一級超大規模資料中心營運商(美國超大規模資料中心營運商)獲得了五個獨特的插槽,並且正在與第三家營運商進行深入合作。首個客製化CXL設計方案已於今年第一季開始出貨,目前正在進行大量生產。第二個專注於近記憶體運算的插槽預計將在一年後投入生產。

  • The remaining CXL design wins are slated for production in calendar 2027. Our solutions technical advantages include support for both DDR4 and DDR5, larger memory capacity and compression along with deep partnerships with the leading memory and CPU providers. While our initial wins centered on offloading from CPUs, more recent wins attached directly to XPUs, which are deployed in far greater numbers were several upcoming high-volume CXL production ramps, Marvell is leading the transition to next-generation memory architectures.

    其餘 CXL 設計訂單預計將於 2027 年投入生產。我們的解決方案技術優勢包括支援 DDR4 和 DDR5、更大的記憶體容量和壓縮,以及與領先的記憶體和 CPU 供應商的深度合作關係。雖然我們最初的勝利主要集中在從 CPU 卸載任務上,但最近的勝利則直接與 XPU 相關,XPU 的部署數量要大得多,並且即將推出幾個大批量 CXL 生產爬坡項目,Marvell 正在引領向下一代記憶體架構的過渡。

  • We expect the XPU attached market to continue to evolve at a rapid pace, and we are very encouraged to see the attach rate of our solutions exceeding our initial expectations. Based on designs we have already won just for the NIC and CXL use cases, we have line of sight to revenue exceeding $2 billion by fiscal 2029 and a significantly higher forecast in the following years. This is why we are so excited about our data center business, interconnect switch, XPU, XPU attach, storage, scale up, scale out, we are everywhere in the AI rack. And we are just getting started with what we expect to be a massive TAM ahead of us.

    我們預計 XPU 附加市場將繼續快速發展,我們非常高興地看到我們解決方案的附加率超過了我們最初的預期。根據我們目前已贏得的 NIC 和 CXL 用例設計,我們有信心在 2029 財年實現超過 20 億美元的收入,並且在未來幾年內實現更高的預期收入。這就是為什麼我們對資料中心業務、互連交換器、XPU、XPU 附加元件、儲存、向上擴展、向外擴展等各個方面都感到如此興奮的原因,我們在 AI 機架的各個角落都有應用。我們才剛開始,預計未來我們將面臨巨大的市場規模。

  • All right. Let me now move to our communications end market, where we delivered $557 million in third quarter revenue, which grew 8% sequentially and 34% year over year. Excluding revenue from the divested Automotive Ethernet business, the implied revenue growth for Marvell's communications end market for the third quarter would be closer to 20% sequentially and 50% year over year.

    好的。現在讓我來談談我們的通訊終端市場,我們第三季的營收為 5.57 億美元,季增 8%,年增 34%。如果排除已剝離的汽車乙太網路業務的收入,Marvell 第三季通訊終端市場的隱含收入成長將接近 20%,年增 50%。

  • These strong results were driven by normalizing customer inventory levels and strong adoption of our refreshed product portfolio at both our enterprise networking and carrier infrastructure customers. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect revenue from our communications end market to grow sequentially in the low single digits on a percentage basis with year-over-year growth of approximately 25% as reported and closer to 40% year over year, excluding our former Automotive Ethernet business.

    這些強勁的業績得益於客戶庫存水準的正常化以及我們更新後的產品組合在企業網路和營運商基礎設施客戶中的廣泛應用。展望第四季度,我們預計通訊終端市場的收入將環比增長,百分比將達到較低的個位數,同比增長約 25%(按報告數據),如果不包括我們之前的汽車以太網業務,同比增長將接近 40%。

  • We expect strong sequential growth from carrier and ongoing growth from enterprise to be partially offset by a steep seasonal declines in our consumer business. We expect the enterprise networking portion of our communications end market to reach an annualized revenue run rate of approximately $1 billion in the fourth quarter which would reflect the complete normalization of customer inventory levels in that business.

    我們預期營運商業務的強勁環比成長和企業業務的持續成長將被消費者業務的季節性大幅下滑部分抵消。我們預計,通訊終端市場中的企業網路部分將在第四季度達到約 10 億美元的年化收入,這將反映出該業務中客戶庫存水準的完全正常化。

  • Going forward from this $1 billion annualized revenue run rate, we expect this business to grow in line with enterprise IT spending. While our carrier business has also been recovering and our fourth quarter guidance implies the business to almost double from the year ago quarter, we see continued recovery until this business also settles into its long-term growth trajectory, which would be in line with carrier CapEx.

    展望未來,我們預計這項業務將以每年 10 億美元的營收速度成長,並與企業 IT 支出保持同步成長。雖然我們的營運商業務也在復甦,並且我們第四季度的業績預期表明,該業務將比去年同期增長近一倍,但我們認為,在運營商業務也穩定在長期增長軌跡之前,復甦將會持續,而這與運營商的資本支出相一致。

  • So in summary, during the third quarter of fiscal 2026, we continue to expand operating margins, grow earnings per share and set new revenue records. We executed our $1 billion accelerated stock repurchase program in addition to repurchasing $300 million of stock through our ongoing buyback program funded by our growing operating cash flow.

    總而言之,在 2026 財年第三季度,我們將繼續擴大營業利潤率,提高每股收益,並創造新的收入記錄。除了透過我們不斷成長的經營現金流資助的持續回購計畫回購 3 億美元的股票外,我們還執行了 10 億美元的加速股票回購計畫。

  • Looking ahead, we expect momentum to continue in the fourth quarter with total company revenue forecast at $2.2 billion at the midpoint, representing 6% sequential and 21% year-over-year growth. Excluding revenue from our former Automotive Ethernet business implied year-over-year revenue growth for Marvell's go-forward business would be approximately 24% at the midpoint of our forecast for the fourth quarter.

    展望未來,我們預計第四季將繼續保持成長勢頭,公司總收入預計為 22 億美元(取中間值),季增 6%,年增 21%。如果排除我們先前的汽車乙太網路業務的收入,Marvell 未來業務的年比收入成長率將約為 24%(以我們對第四季的預測中位數計算)。

  • As I noted in my opening remarks, we are seeing robust demand signals and strong bookings across our entire portfolio, positioning us for a strong fiscal 2027 and even faster growth in fiscal 2028. Customers are planning to add substantial AI capacity over the next several years and are partnering closely with us on long-term technology road maps and coordinated capacity planning.

    正如我在開場白中提到的,我們看到整個產品組合的需求訊號強勁,預訂量也很高,這為我們2027財年的強勁成長以及2028財年更快的成長奠定了基礎。客戶計劃在未來幾年內大幅增加人工智慧容量,並與我們密切合作,制定長期技術路線圖和協調的容量規劃。

  • In addition to benefiting from rapid market expansion, we have several of our own unique growth drivers. Taken the other, we expect strong market tailwinds and new product cycles to drive significant growth inflections ahead of us. As a result, we see a path for our data center revenue growth in fiscal 2028 to accelerate meaningfully above the 25% growth we expect in fiscal 2027. So look, we covered a lot of ground today.

    除了受益於市場的快速擴張外,我們還有幾個自身獨特的成長驅動因素。另一方面,我們預期強勁的市場順風和新產品週期將推動未來顯著的成長轉折點。因此,我們預計 2028 財年資料中心營收成長將顯著高於 2027 財年預期的 25% 的成長。所以你看,我們今天討論了很多內容。

  • And so before I close, let me just quickly highlight a few key takeaways. First, we have activated Marvell's M&A playbook and expect to close the transformational acquisition of Celestial AI in the first quarter of next fiscal year, enabling us to fully capitalize on the massive scale-up opportunity.

    最後,在結束之前,讓我快速強調幾個關鍵要點。首先,我們已經啟動了 Marvell 的併購策略,預計將在下一財年第一季完成對 Celestial AI 的變革性收購,使我們能夠充分利用大規模擴張的機會。

  • Second, our interconnect business is firing on all cylinders. Our electrooptic interconnect platforms continue to lead the market with world-class road maps across the board and accelerating demand. Finally, when you put it all together, we are positioned for several years of exceptional performance, building on this fiscal year's projected revenue growth of more than 40%. And I look forward to updating you on our progress over the coming quarters.

    其次,我們的互連業務正在全面蓬勃發展。我們的光電互連平台憑藉著世界一流的全面發展路線圖和不斷增長的需求,持續引領市場。最後,綜合所有因素來看,我們預計在未來幾年內取得卓越的業績,並在此基礎上,實現本財年超過 40% 的預期收入成長。我期待在接下來的幾個季度向您報告我們的進展。

  • And with all of that, I'll turn the call over to Willem for more detail on our recent results and outlook.

    綜上所述,我將把電話交給威廉,讓他詳細介紹我們最近的業績和展望。

  • Willem Meintjes - Chief Financial Officer

    Willem Meintjes - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Matt, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me start with a summary of our financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026.

    謝謝你,馬特,大家下午好。首先,讓我總結一下我們2026財年第三季的財務表現。

  • Revenue in the third quarter was $2.075 billion, growing 37% year over year and 3% sequentially. Data center is our largest end market, contributing 73% of total revenue. Our communications and other end market contributed the remaining 27% of revenue. GAAP gross margin was 51.6%. Non-GAAP gross margin was 59.7%, an increase of 30 basis points sequentially.

    第三季營收為 20.75 億美元,年增 37%,季增 3%。資料中心是我們最大的終端市場,貢獻了總收入的 73%。我們的通訊和其他終端市場貢獻了剩餘的 27% 的收入。GAAP毛利率為51.6%。非GAAP毛利率為59.7%,季增30個基點。

  • Moving on to operating expenses. GAAP operating expenses were $712 million, including stock-based compensation, amortization of acquired intangible assets, restructuring costs and acquisition-related costs. Non-GAAP operating expenses came in at $485 million, in line with our guidance. Our GAAP operating margin was 17.2%, while our non-GAAP operating margin was 36.3%. I'm pleased that we drove a 150 basis point sequential increase in non-GAAP operating margin.

    接下來是營運費用。GAAP 營運費用為 7.12 億美元,其中包括股票選擇權費用、收購無形資產攤提、重組成本和收購相關成本。非GAAP營運費用為4.85億美元,與我們的預期一致。我們的 GAAP 營業利潤率為 17.2%,而非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 36.3%。我很高興我們實現了非GAAP營業利潤率季增150個基點。

  • For the third quarter, GAAP earnings per diluted share was $2.20, including the gain from the divestiture of the Automotive Ethernet business. Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share was $0.76, reflecting year-over-year growth of 77% which is more than double the pace of revenue growth demonstrating the significant operating leverage in our model. Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share increased 13% sequentially. Now turning to our cash flow and balance sheet.

    第三季度,GAAP稀釋後每股收益為2.20美元,其中包括剝離汽車乙太網路業務的收益。非GAAP稀釋後每股收益為0.76美元,年成長77%,是營收成長速度的兩倍多,顯示我們模型中存在顯著的營運槓桿。非GAAP稀釋後每股盈餘較上季成長13%。現在來看我們的現金流量表和資產負債表。

  • Cash flow from operations in the third quarter was a record $582 million, growing approximately $121 million from the prior quarter. Our inventory at the end of the third quarter was $1.01 billion, a decrease of $37 million from the prior quarter.

    第三季經營活動產生的現金流達到創紀錄的 5.82 億美元,比上一季成長約 1.21 億美元。第三季末,我們的庫存為 10.1 億美元,比上一季減少了 3,700 萬美元。

  • During the quarter, we executed our $1 billion accelerated repurchase program. In addition, we repurchased $300 million of our stock through our ongoing capital return program and returned $51 million to shareholders through cash dividends in the quarter. As of the end of the third quarter, our total debt was $4.5 billion, with a gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.47 times and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.58 times.

    本季度,我們執行了10億美元的加速回購計畫。此外,我們透過持續的資本回報計劃回購了價值 3 億美元的股票,並在本季度透過現金股利向股東返還了 5,100 萬美元。截至第三季末,我們的總負債為 45 億美元,總負債與 EBITDA 比率為 1.47 倍,淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 0.58 倍。

  • Our debt ratios have continued to improve as we have driven an increase in our EBITDA. As of the end of the third fiscal quarter, our cash and cash equivalents were $2.7 billion, an increase of $1.5 billion from last quarter reflecting the addition of proceeds from the divestiture of our Automotive Ethernet business and ongoing cash generation from operations, offset by a capital return of $1.35 billion between stock repurchases and dividends.

    隨著 EBITDA 的成長,我們的負債比率也持續改善。截至第三財季末,我們的現金及現金等價物為 27 億美元,比上一季增加了 15 億美元,這反映了出售汽車以太網業務所得收益以及持續經營產生的現金流,但被股票回購和分紅之間的 13.5 億美元資本返還所抵消。

  • Turning to our guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. We're forecasting revenue to be in the range of $2.2 billion, plus or minus 5%. We expect our GAAP gross margin to be between 51.1% and 52.1%. We expect our non-GAAP gross margin to be between 58.5% and 59.5%. Looking forward, we anticipate that the overall level of revenue and product mix will remain key determinants of our gross margin in any given quarter.

    接下來,讓我們來看看 2026 財年第四季的業績預期。我們預測營收將在 22 億美元左右,上下浮動 5%。我們預計以美國通用會計準則計算的毛利率將在 51.1% 至 52.1% 之間。我們預計非GAAP毛利率將在58.5%至59.5%之間。展望未來,我們預計整體營收水準和產品組合仍將是任何季度毛利率的關鍵決定因素。

  • For the fourth quarter, we project our GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $741 million. We anticipate our non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately $515 million, growing from the prior quarter as we continue to invest in the business, and anticipate higher employee bonus payouts, reflecting a strong expected finish to the fiscal year.

    我們預計第四季的 GAAP 營運費用約為 7.41 億美元。我們預計非GAAP營運費用約為5.15億美元,較上一季有所成長,因為我們將繼續投資於業務,並預計員工獎金支出將增加,這反映出本財年有望強勁收官。

  • For the fourth quarter, we expect GAAP and non-GAAP other income and expense, including interest on our debt to be approximately $30 million. We expect our non-GAAP tax rate of 10% for the fourth quarter. We expect our basic weighted average shares outstanding to be 850 million, and our diluted weighted average shares outstanding to be 857 million. We anticipate GAAP earnings per diluted share in the range of $0.31 to $0.41. We expect non-GAAP earnings per diluted share in the range of $0.74 to $0.84.

    預計第四季GAAP和非GAAP其他收入和支出(包括債務利息)約為3000萬美元。我們預計第四季的非GAAP稅率為10%。我們預期基本加權平均流通股數為 8.5 億股,稀釋加權平均流通股數為 8.57 億股。我們預計以美國通用會計準則計算的稀釋後每股收益在 0.31 美元至 0.41 美元之間。我們預計以非美國通用會計準則計算的稀釋後每股收益在 0.74 美元至 0.84 美元之間。

  • Looking ahead to fiscal 2027, Matt already provided an update on our strong revenue growth expectations. We intend to continue to invest in growing our business while driving operating leverage and expect our non-GAAP operating expenses to increase at roughly half the rate of the revenue growth next fiscal year. Keep in mind that we typically see a mid-single-digit sequential increase in OpEx on a percentage basis in the first quarter.

    展望 2027 財年,Matt 已經更新了我們對強勁營收成長的預期。我們計劃繼續投資發展業務,同時提高營運槓桿,預計下一財年非GAAP營運費用將以收入成長率的一半左右成長。請記住,我們通常會看到第一季營運支出較上季成長中個位數百分比。

  • This forecast for next year's OpEx does not include any additions from the acquisition we announced today. I will provide that forecast separately. Regarding taxes, we expect our non-GAAP tax rate to move to approximately 12% next fiscal year.

    這份明年營運支出的預測不包括我們今天宣布的收購帶來的任何新增支出。我會另行提供該預測報告。關於稅收方面,我們預計下一財年的非GAAP稅率將達到約12%。

  • Turning to the acquisition we announced today. Post closing, we expect the addition of Celestial AI to add approximately $50 million in annual operating expenses. We expect Celestial AI to start generating meaningful revenue in the second half of fiscal 2028, at which point it is expected to become accretive to our non-GAAP earnings. We plan to fund the acquisition through a combination of stock and cash on hand and do not intend to take on additional debt. We have a strong balance sheet and are generating robust operating cash flow.

    接下來談談我們今天宣布的收購案。交易完成後,我們預計 Celestial AI 的加入將使每年的營運費用增加約 5,000 萬美元。我們預計 Celestial AI 將於 2028 財年下半年開始產生有意義的收入,屆時可望提升我們的非 GAAP 收益。我們計劃透過股票和現有現金相結合的方式為此次收購提供資金,不打算承擔額外的債務。我們擁有穩健的資產負債表,並產生了強勁的營運現金流。

  • As a result, in parallel with paying for the acquisition, we plan on continuing to return capital to stockholders through dividends and buybacks. In summary, we're executing on our strategy to drive strong revenue growth while delivering operating leverage. In addition to organic investments, we are actively deploying our strong balance sheet to acquire a transformational asset that we expect to further strengthen our capabilities and increase our addressable market.

    因此,在支付收購款項的同時,我們計劃繼續透過股利和股票回購向股東返還資本。總而言之,我們正在執行我們的策略,以推動強勁的收入成長,同時實現營運槓桿效應。除了內部投資外,我們還在積極利用我們強大的資產負債表來收購一項變革性資產,我們期望這項資產能夠進一步增強我們的能力並擴大我們的潛在市場。

  • With that, we are ready to start our Q&A session. Operator, please open the line and announce Q&A instructions. Thank you.

    接下來,我們準備開始問答環節。接線員,請接通線路並宣布問答環節說明。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

    (操作員指令)Ross Seymore,德意志銀行。

  • Ross Seymore - Research Analyst

    Ross Seymore - Research Analyst

  • Matt, I appreciate all the details you gave about how to think about next year. If I run through those numbers, basically, it sounds like you're implying somewhere around $10 billion in revenue for next year. So I guess, first of all, is that in the right ballpark?

    馬特,非常感謝你提供的關於如何考慮明年的所有細節。如果我仔細分析這些數字,基本上,你的意思似乎是明年的收入將在 100 億美元左右。所以我想,首先,這個數字大致正確嗎?

  • And then back in June, you gave a longer-term target for fiscal '29 for your business, especially on the AI side of things. How does what you're looking for next year gets you aligned to those long-term targets?

    然後在六月,您為貴公司製定了 2029 財年的長期目標,尤其是在人工智慧方面。你明年所追求的目標如何與你的長期目標一致?

  • Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Ross. I think that's actually a great way to tee-up the Q&A here. So yes, a couple of things. I think you're absolutely in the ballpark when you add up the numbers I gave you on $10 billion for next year. And I think that's a great target, actually, by the way, that -- motivational for us as a team to go drive. And just as a reminder, this is just based on the Marvell organic plan, no M&A contribution.

    是的。謝謝你,羅斯。我認為這確實是引入問答環節的好方法。是的,有兩件事。我認為你把我之前告訴你的關於明年100億美元的數字加起來,就完全正確了。順便說一句,我認為這確實是一個很好的目標,激勵我們全隊繼續努力。再次提醒一下,這只是基於 Marvell 的有機成長計劃,不包含併購貢獻。

  • A couple of things about next year, an then I'll actually give you some commentary on how you think about that slope we're on for next year. Another thing I would note, I didn't say in my prepared remarks but we do expect sequential revenue growth next year, every quarter. So year over year, we see a nice growth throughout the year. But I would say the second half of the year stronger than the first and with, I think, a really, really compelling exit rate to fiscal '27.

    關於明年有幾件事,然後我會就我們明年面臨的情況發表一些看法。還有一點要說明,雖然我在準備的發言稿中沒有提到,但我們預計明年每季的營收都會成長。因此,我們看到全年都保持著良好的成長勢頭。但我認為下半年比上半年表現更強勁,而且我認為,2027 財年的退出率非常非常有吸引力。

  • Now it's a little far out to go all the way to '29, let's say, but let me just give you a path sort of on where we're headed and how we think about fiscal '28 and how we build on that strong second half we see next year. So a couple of things maybe to talk about those same businesses.

    現在要說到 2029 年還為時過早,但讓我大致介紹一下我們的發展方向,以及我們對 2028 財年的看法,以及我們如何利用明年下半年強勁的成長勢頭。所以,關於這些企業,或許有幾件事要談。

  • So first on custom. And just as a reminder, I mean, basically, we quadrupled that business from calendar '23 to '24, we doubled it from founder '24 to '25, we're saying it's going to be up about 20% this next year. But then when I look at the year after with all this goodness from XPU attach plus a new meaningful XPU socket ramping and the other programs continuing, we see the custom business action in fiscal '28 doubling off of '27.

    首先是定制部分。再次提醒一下,基本上,從 2023 年到 2024 年,我們的業務成長了四倍,從 2024 年到 2025 年,我們成長了一倍,我們預計明年將成長約 20%。但是,當我回顧第二年,考慮到 XPU 附加元件帶來的所有好處,以及新的、有意義的 XPU 插槽的逐步普及和其他專案的持續進行,我們看到 2028 財年的客製化業務活動比 2027 財年翻了一番。

  • So we see a reacceleration big time in that year. And that puts us on a nice trajectory towards our growth targets fiscal '29 in custom coming off a strong second half next year and then in fiscal '28. On interconnect, look, it's early, but we do expect that business should continue to outgrow CapEx. It's done that for a long time.

    所以我們看到那一年經濟出現了大幅加速成長。這樣一來,在明年下半年強勁成長之後,我們將朝著 2029 財年定制業務的成長目標穩步邁進,然後在 2028 財年實現這一目標。關於互聯互通,現在還處於早期階段,但我們預期業務成長將持續超過資本支出成長。它已經這樣做了很長時間了。

  • Look, if you just said, hey, 20% CapEx growth in fiscal '28 and nobody knows what that number is, but just peg that in there for now, we'll definitely grow above that. I would say our customer forecast support a much higher number than that. But just as a base case, just assume CapEx is 20% that year. And so optics will grow faster.

    聽著,如果你只是說,嘿,2028 財年資本支出增加 20%,雖然沒人知道這個數字是多少,但暫時先定在這個數字裡,我們肯定會超過這個數字。我認為我們的客戶預測支援的數字要高得多。但作為基本情況,假設當年的資本支出為 20%。因此,光學領域將會發展得更快。

  • And then for storage switch and the other part of data center just assume 10% growth in fiscal '28 over '27. I think that's a reasonable set of assumptions to use based on what we see. And so when you actually add all that together, you come up with a number, bottoms up, which looks more like 40% growth in data center in fiscal '28. So that's what I was talking about in my lead-in, which was strong data set -- 45% growth basically this year in data center, targeting 25% next year and then 40% the year after.

    然後,對於儲存交換器和資料中心的其他部分,假設 2028 財年比 2027 財年增長 10%。我認為根據我們所觀察到的情況,這是一組合理的假設。因此,當你把所有這些加起來,從下往上算,你會得出一個數字,看起來更像是 2028 財年資料中心成長 40%。這就是我在引言中提到的,那就是強勁的資料集——資料中心今年基本上成長了 45%,明年目標是 25%,後年目標是 40%。

  • And if you actually look at it over like the cycle where we started back in calendar '23, that's like a 50% kind of compounded growth rate, we'll be growing our data center business. So the '28 numbers I'm laying out for you are not totally crazy. And then just for reference, if you just sort of plug in comms and other growing at GDP for fiscal '28 just to keep it simple.

    如果你回顧我們從 2023 年開始的整個週期,你會發現我們的資料中心業務將達到 50% 的複合成長率。所以,我列出的 28 年數據並非完全瘋狂。然後,為了方便參考,如果你簡單地將通訊和其他產業以 2028 財年的 GDP 成長率代入,那就這樣簡單了。

  • Again, it's too far out you basically get Marvell growing like another 30% in fiscal '28, which would be above where we're looking for '27. So kind of a long answer, but maybe what's been on a lot of investors' mind is how do you get from where we are to where we're going, but certainly, we're very optimistic about our outlook over the next couple of years.

    再說,時間太長了,基本上 Marvell 在 2028 財年將再成長 30%,這將高於我們對 2027 年的預期。所以答案有點長,但也許很多投資者都在想,我們如何從現在的位置到達我們要去的地方,但可以肯定的是,我們對未來幾年的前景非常樂觀。

  • And then things like Celestial AI and some of these other big growth drivers, those are going to kick in starting in fiscal '28 but then really in '29 and '30 and beyond. And I think through the end of the decade, it's looking very bright for Marvell. Thanks for the question.

    而像 Celestial AI 和其他一些大型成長驅動因素,將從 2028 財年開始發揮作用,但真正發揮作用的時間是在 2029 和 2030 財年及以後。我認為到本十年末,Marvell 的前景非常光明。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

    哈蘭‧蘇爾,摩根大通。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Congrats on the Celestial acquisition. Today, Matt, your lead AI customer announced their next-generation 3-nanometer AI XPU product. And I think you just said you have secured purchase orders for this program for the entirety of next year. But your lead customer also preannounced their next-generation 2-nanometer XPU product today as well, which we believe you're also involved with, especially now with the Celestial team. I remember at the June custom AI event that the team talked about concurrent design programs.

    恭喜你們收購了Celestial公司。今天,Matt,你們的主要人工智慧客戶發布了他們的下一代 3 奈米人工智慧 XPU 產品。我想你剛才說過,你們已經為這個計畫爭取到了明年一整年的採購訂單。但您的主要客戶今天也預先發布了他們的下一代 2 奈米 XPU 產品,我們相信您也參與其中,特別是現在與 Celestial 團隊合作。我記得在六月的客製化人工智慧活動上,團隊談到了平行設計程式。

  • In other words, at the same time, you're towards the tail end of your customer's 3-nanometer design. You're already starting to work with customers on their next-generation 2-nanometer designs. During our fireside chat in September, you talked about the team being heads down focused on 2-nanometer designs. You even talked about next-generation A16 and A14 technologies.

    換句話說,同時,你正處於客戶 3 奈米設計方案的尾聲。您已經開始與客戶合作,共同開發他們的下一代 2 奈米設計。在九月份的爐邊談話中,您談到團隊正全力以赴地進行 2 奈米設計。你甚至談到了下一代 A16 和 A14 技術。

  • Can you just give us an update on your sub 3 nanometer design win pipeline does include both XPU, XPU attach programs? And what's the time line for these programs to ramp into production?

    能否簡單介紹一下你們的 3 奈米以下設計得標流程是否包含 XPU 和 XPU 附加程式?這些項目何時才能投入生產?

  • Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Harlan, for the question. And yes, just in the spirit of customer confidentiality and details, I can't go into too much. But what I would say, which is incorporated into our numbers is that our product transition from where we are today with our lead XPU customer to the next one is baked into all the numbers I gave you, and yes, I got the backlog and I got the orders and we got great visibility there.

    是的。謝謝哈蘭的提問。是的,出於對客戶保密和細節的尊重,我不能透露太多。但我想說的是,我們的數據已經包含了從我們目前的主要 XPU 客戶到下一個客戶的過渡,這體現在我給你的所有數據中。是的,我拿到了積壓訂單,拿到了訂單,我們在這方面有了很好的可見度。

  • On the 2-nanometer, very exciting. I mean there's a number of programs that we're working on in this area, and that's going to be a workhorse process technology for us. But same as I said, and I would just say that the design funnel keeps increasing there. And the power benefits you see are compelling. And I think that will continue. I mean, that's really where AI has sort of kicked in to keep the Moore's Law train running is really the just the power savings are worth real OpEx dollars when you can save power dissipation from one generation to the other.

    2奈米製程,非常令人興奮。我的意思是,我們正在這個領域開展多個項目,而這項技術將成為我們的主力工藝技術。但就像我之前說的,我想說的是,那裡的設計流程一直在增加。而且,由此帶來的電力優勢非常顯著。我認為這種情況還會持續下去。我的意思是,人工智慧真正發揮作用的地方在於,它能讓摩爾定律繼續發展,因為從一代到另一代,節省的電力損耗確實能帶來實質的營運成本。

  • So nothing really new to report there other than just heads-down execution and do see strong product ramps coming over this time period I gave you, especially in the fiscal '28 where you'll start seeing some of the 2-nanometer products ramp. And my team internally just to give them a shout out is executing extremely well.

    所以除了埋頭苦幹之外,沒有什麼新的消息要回報。而且,在我給你的這段時間裡,我們預計產品將實現強勁的成長,尤其是在 2028 財年,屆時你將開始看到一些 2 奈米產品的量產。我還要特別表揚一下我的團隊,他們執行得非常好。

  • The whole team you saw that got up there at the AI investor event in June by engineering leadership, executing extremely well across the board on the core IP, the nodes, the packaging, you name it. So we're really firing on all cylinders internally. Thanks, Harlan.

    你在六月的人工智慧投資者活動上看到的整個團隊,憑藉著工程領導力,在核心智慧財產權、節點、封裝等各個方面都表現出色。所以我們內部各方面都運作得非常好。謝謝你,哈蘭。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Great execution.

    執行得非常出色。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tore Svanberg, Stifel.

    Tore Svanberg,Stifel。

  • Tore Svanberg - Analyst

    Tore Svanberg - Analyst

  • Yes. Congratulations on the acquisition. I had a question on Celestial AI, Matt. So when you gave those $500 million and $1 billion target, would that be for the PF Link products only? Or would that also include some of the potential businesses with memory?

    是的。恭喜收購成功。馬特,我有個關於Celestial AI的問題。所以,您給的 5 億美元和 10 億美元的目標,是否僅指 PF Link 產品?或者,這是否也包括一些擁有儲存技術的潛在企業?

  • Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Yes. A couple of things to note, maybe at the highest level. The first is, yes, the revenue targets and also the earnout that we're all going to drive for is all based on Celestial AI in totality. Now the reality is from a lead perspective, the PF chiplet is sort of what's going to go first.

    是的。是的。有幾點要注意,或許是最高層次的問題。首先,是的,我們所有人努力實現的收入目標和獲利目標都完全基於 Celestial AI 的整體表現。從領先者的角度來看,PF晶片其實是最早推出的產品。

  • But everything is on the table, and there's just tremendous activity that, that team has driven, punching way above the weight in the industry in terms of the engagements they have. So those are all in numbers but clearly going to be driven more from the PF chiplet side in terms of the revenue build in end of fiscal '28 and then the end of fiscal '29.

    但一切皆有可能,而且團隊進行了大量的活動,就他們所參與的專案而言,他們在業界取得了遠超其規模的成就。所以這些都是數字,但很明顯,在 2028 財年末和 2029 財年末,收入成長將更多地受到 PF 晶片的驅動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Caso, Wolfe Research.

    克里斯‧卡索,沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Chris Caso - Analyst

    Chris Caso - Analyst

  • Also a question about Celestial. And with that revenue ramp that you're expecting at the end fiscal '28, beginning of fiscal '29, can you talk about the breadth of that? And obviously, I'm sure you're not willing to name the customers right now. But is it a fairly narrow customer base, what's the -- and going over time, how diversified is that revenue stream?

    還有一個關於Celestial的問題。鑑於您預計在 2028 財年末、2029 財年初將實現營收成長,您能否談談成長的幅度?顯然,我相信你現在肯定不願意透露客戶的名字。但是,它的客戶群是否相當狹窄?隨著時間的推移,其收入來源的多元化程度如何?

  • Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. No, great question, Chris. I think that the engagement is certainly broad but remember, we're -- there's a bold effort across the industry to really bring this product into volume stable production, and it's going to take real big companies and a few of them to do that. And so yes, we have strong engagement across the board, but there will be -- and we're fortunate with this that we have -- as I said on the call, we have one Tier 1 hyperscaler that's -- we're engaged with on this that I think is a great partner and a great teaching customer and a great way to -- great customer to collaborate with to really go make this happen.

    是的。不,問得好,克里斯。我認為參與範圍確實很廣,但請記住,整個行業正在做出巨大的努力,真正將這款產品投入批量穩定生產,而這需要一些真正的大公司才能做到。所以,是的,我們在各個方面都投入了大量精力,但是——我們很幸運——正如我在電話會議上所說,我們有一個一級超大規模數據中心運營商,我們正在與他合作,我認為他是一個很棒的合作夥伴,一個很棒的教學客戶,也是一個很棒的合作對象,可以真正地將這件事變成現實。

  • So it's very exciting to see Celestial come into Marvell because -- just as a reminder, we have an incredibly strong internal silicon photonics organization. I mean this team that we got from Inphi pioneered this technology. We drove it into high-volume production and market leadership in the 100 and the 400-gig ZR business, now 800 gig. It's all the DCI stuff they enable.

    所以看到 Celestial 加入 Marvell 非常令人興奮,因為——順便提一下,我們擁有非常強大的內部矽光子學組織。我的意思是,我們從 Inphi 引進的這支團隊是這項技術的先驅。我們將其推向了大規模生產,並在 100G 和 400G ZR 業務中佔據了市場領先地位,現在又達到了 800G。都是他們啟用的DCI功能。

  • That's on the back of very, very innovative silicon photonics technology. So we have a ton of know-how here. So then when we bring in Celestial, we're all going to benefit from that common set of learnings and then having a lead customer pulling us through is very exciting. So I think this is just the first phase here, Chris, that you're going to see.

    這是得益於極具創新性的矽光子技術。所以我們在這裡累積了大量的專業知識。所以,當我們引入 Celestial 時,我們所有人都會從這套共同的經驗中受益,而且有一位領頭客戶帶領我們前進,這非常令人興奮。所以我覺得這只是第一階段,克里斯,你會看到的。

  • But certainly, the interest is there across the industry. And this is just so evident to us over the last couple of years and really pronounced at the last strategic review. It's a process I run every year where we do our capital allocation review with everybody, and I was a couple of months back, and we're just staring at this just giant transition to photonics inside the data center in that TAM.

    但可以肯定的是,整個行業都對此很感興趣。過去幾年,這一點對我們來說非常明顯,在最近一次戰略評估中更是表現得尤為突出。這是我每年都會進行的流程,我們會和所有人一起進行資本分配審查。幾個月前,我們剛完成了審查,當時我們正在關注資料中心在TAM(目標市場)中向光子學的巨大轉型。

  • And we looked at, could we do it ourselves, could we do it with the partner and we just concluded this is a home run to bring them in with our internal team plus really a lead customer to pull us through the first wave. But beyond that, we see very broad adoption beyond that time frame.

    我們考慮過,我們自己能不能做,能不能和合作夥伴一起做,最後我們得出結論,讓他們加入我們的內部團隊,再加上一個真正的領頭客戶,就能幫助我們度過第一波難關,這絕對是個好主意。但除此之外,我們看到了遠超過該時間範圍的廣泛應用。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler.

    哈什·庫馬爾,派珀·桑德勒。

  • Harsh Kumar - Analyst

    Harsh Kumar - Analyst

  • Congratulations, Matt and the team and a lot of good things happening. Matt I had two. So I'll just ask them both together. The first one is on custom. You specifically mentioned at least 20% growth for next year. Seems like you've got a lot of good things happening, a lot of good stuff ramping. And I was hoping that you could book in that number for us. So at least 20% to me seems like that's what's in the bag.

    恭喜馬特和他的團隊,祝你們一切順利,好事連連。馬特,我有兩個。那我就一起問他們兩個吧。第一個是定制的。您特別提到明年至少要成長20%。看來你那邊有很多好事發生,很多好事都在加速發展。我希望你能幫我們預訂那個號碼。所以我覺得至少有 20% 的成功率是穩操勝券的。

  • But maybe you could give us a sense of what -- if everything worked out right for you, what could be a normalized 2027 FY growth rate for custom? And then the second question was you gave us a lot of color all the way to FY 2028. And this is kind of not the norm on Wall Street, most companies go out a quarter, as you well know.

    但或許您可以為我們介紹一下—如果一切順利,您認為 2027 財年客製化產品的正常成長率會是多少?第二個問題是,您給我們詳細介紹了直至 2028 財政年度的各項計劃。而這在華爾街並不常見,正如你所知,大多數公司都會按季度進行融資。

  • So my question is, and this we've been getting from a lot of investors already is, what is your comfort level? And what is the visibility on some of this long-term revenue materializing that you're talking about?

    所以我的問題是,也是我們已經從許多投資者那裡得到的答案,那就是:您的舒適度如何?您所說的這些長期收入實現的可見度如何?

  • Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, sure. A lot in there, but let me unpack it. I think the first is, you should definitely model the 20%, and I think that's -- that is a good number. That's a good safe base case number. And remember, it's a handful of programs today. So I think I would just go for that now. Clearly, we're going to be ready if people want to do more, but I am also mindful of some of the history on this custom business where either people got ahead of themselves or there's a lot of noise in the system and it's just -- look, we've got strong backlog, we got that covered.

    當然可以。裡面內容很多,讓我來逐一解釋。我認為首先,你絕對應該把 20% 這個比例建模,我認為這——這是一個很好的數字。這是一個比較穩健的基本情況數字。記住,如今只有寥寥幾個項目。所以我想我現在就選那個吧。顯然,如果人們想做更多,我們會做好準備,但我也意識到定制業務的一些歷史,要么是人們操之過急,要么是系統裡有很多噪音,所以——你看,我們積壓了很多訂單,我們已經處理好了。

  • That's great. If we do better later, we'll definitely update you guys. But we got a very, very good outlook for next year in that business. And then obviously, the year after it really builds. And kind of part of your question is it's not 20% sort of linearly, meaning the second half, especially in custom and the exit rate is much higher than where we are now.

    那太棒了。如果以後情況好轉,我們一定會通知大家的。但我們對明年該業務的前景非常樂觀。然後很顯然,第二年情況會更加嚴重。你的問題的一部分在於,它不是線性增長的 20%,這意味著後半部分,尤其是在定制方面,退出率比我們現在的情況要高得多。

  • And that's simply because we're building all this momentum into fiscal '28. And then yes, on the sort of guide quarter at a time, that's definitely been our MO historically. I think given the multiyear cycles we're looking at now in the AI infrastructure build and also, quite frankly, just being sensitive to investor feedback about looking at some pretty ambitious targets we've set for the company several years out.

    這完全是因為我們將所有這些勢頭都積蓄到了 2028 財年。是的,按照季度為單位進行指導,這絕對是我們歷來的做法。我認為,鑑於我們目前在人工智慧基礎設施建設中面臨的多年周期,以及坦白說,我們對投資者回饋的重視,以及我們為公司設定的幾年內相當雄心勃勃的目標,我們應該認真考慮這些因素。

  • And then wondering, well, how do you see yourselves getting there? And I just view it as it's incumbent on me to paint the picture for folks and share what I see as kind of base case assumptions, as I mentioned. I mean these are what I view as the base case, not dream the dream, not putting anything in that we -- is sort of a maybe.

    然後就會想,你們打算如何達成這個目標呢?正如我之前提到的,我認為我有責任為大家描繪出這幅圖景,並分享我認為的基本假設。我的意思是,這些是我認為的基本情況,而不是空想,也不是把任何事情都放在「我們——這只是一種可能」的假設裡。

  • I think it's very rational how we came up with our fiscal '27 outlook and even our fiscal '28 if you just look at it, bottoms up on the custom, we should definitely be able to do that because we know those programs. I mean if I say CapEx is growing 20%, it certainly may do better, and our optics business is growing way above CapEx, so that has some legs to it.

    我認為,如果我們從根本上按照慣例來看待 2027 財年甚至 2028 財年的展望,我們的思路是非常合理的,我們肯定能夠做到這一點,因為我們了解這些項目。我的意思是,如果我說資本支出成長了 20%,那肯定會更好,而且我們的光學業務成長速度遠遠超過了資本支出,所以這個預測是有一定依據的。

  • And then look, even in a quarter, that other category in switching and storage and other has also floated up. So there's still a lot of goodness out there. But I think just from a modeling perspective, that's what you should think about. And I would say, finally, it really though is tied to our customer planning. I mean, they're realizing to go get all this build to happen.

    然後你看,即使在一個季度內,交換器、儲存和其他類別也出現了成長。所以,世上仍有許多美好事物。但我覺得,僅從建模的角度來看,這就是你應該考慮的。最後我想說,這其實與我們的客戶規劃息息相關。我的意思是,他們意識到要讓所有這些建設項目得以實現。

  • They've got to provide visibility several years out. That's giving us increased confidence in our outlook because we're having to plan around that. Our R&D schedules, our capacity, our ramps, all that stuff has got to go kind of six to eight quarters out now to really be ready. So that's also part of why I felt it was worth sharing this perspective for investors.

    他們必須提供未來幾年的可視性。這使我們對前景更有信心,因為我們必須圍繞這一點來製定計劃。我們的研發計畫、產能、產能爬坡能力等等,現在都必須提前六到八個季度做好準備。所以,這也是我覺得有必要跟投資人分享這種觀點的原因之一。

  • And again, I think it's timed well as well with Celestial because then that thing just kicks in beyond the time frame I'm talking about fiscal '29 -- I mean some of it in fiscal '28 but then early '29, '30 and beyond. So hopefully, that was helpful. Thank you so much for the question.

    而且,我認為它與 Celestial 的時機也恰到好處,因為這樣一來,它就會在我說的 2029 財年之後開始發揮作用——我的意思是,2028 財年的一部分,以及 2029 年初、2030 年及以後。希望這些資訊對您有所幫助。非常感謝您的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Blayne Curtis, Jefferies.

    布萊恩·柯蒂斯,傑富瑞。

  • Blayne Curtis - Analyst

    Blayne Curtis - Analyst

  • I want to ask you, Matt, I know it's always tough to talk about customers, but you did file an 8-K and it says you graded Amazon a warrant for 1 million shares to buy photonic fabric. So I guess, one, very simply, is that your lead customer? And if you can maybe talk about that expanding relationship, obviously, there's been a lot of back and forth your status to the customer, but this seems like a positive in terms of your engagement for the next generation?

    我想問你,馬特,我知道談論客戶總是很困難,但你提交了一份 8-K 表格,其中提到你授予亞馬遜 100 萬股認股權證,用於購買光子織物。所以我想,首先,最簡單的一點,那就是你的主要客戶是誰?如果您能談論這種不斷發展的關係,顯然,您與客戶之間的關係經歷了很多反复,但這似乎對您與下一代的互動來說是一個積極的信號?

  • Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And great job checking out the EDGAR website, Blayne, you're always one step ahead. Yes, I think it's great. So first, we did file Form 8-K talking about really an extension, if you think about it to the warrant agreement we have, which is effectively adding a new swim lane. I mean if you can believe it was only one year ago that we announced with AWS a warrant and strategic arrangement with them.

    是的。布萊恩,你查看 EDGAR 網站做得太棒了,你總是領先一步。是的,我覺得很棒。首先,我們提交了 8-K 表格,實際上是在討論我們認股權證協議的延期,如果你仔細想想,這相當於增加了一個新的泳道。我的意思是,你敢相信嗎?就在一年前,我們宣布與 AWS 達成認股權證和策略合作協議。

  • Back then, a year ago, it was really bucketed between AI, custom products and then networking products. And so think of this as just adding another swim lane of photonic fabric products to the mix. And all in, the potential of each of these is quite significant. So that's a positive on the first one, that's out there. Also pleased to get a very, very strong support in our press release for the acquisition from AWS that was positive.

    一年前,市場大致可分為人工智慧、客製化產品和網路產品三大類。因此,不妨將此視為在光子織物產品領域中又增加了一條新的泳道。總而言之,這些事物的潛力都相當巨大。所以第一個結果是個好消息,它已經公佈了。我們也很高興在AWS發布的收購新聞稿中得到了非常非常強烈的支持,這是積極的。

  • And so when you sort of look at all the things we're saying and all the data that's out there, you can sort of figure out where we're headed with this and who is helping drive this technology forward. We're very, very excited about where we can go with this technology, especially with our lead Tier 1 hyperscaler but then also the rest of the market, which I think will be shortly behind them once we can really put the full force of Marvell behind this.

    所以,當你綜合考慮我們所說的一切以及所有現有的數據,你就能大致了解我們在這方面的發展方向以及誰在推動這項技術向前發展。我們對這項技術的未來發展方向感到非常非常興奮,尤其是對於我們領先的一級超大規模資料中心營運商而言,但對於其他市場而言也是如此,我認為一旦我們能夠真正將 Marvell 的全部力量投入到這項技術中,其他市場很快就會跟上我們的步伐。

  • So thanks for catching that and giving me a chance to talk about it. It's pretty exciting to see. Really, if you think about it, we've got the warrant agreement, we got an aggressive earnout that the team is driving, which is a $2 billion number, by the way, through the end of fiscal '29. So all this adds up to just a great sort of set of incentives for everybody to go execute like crazy and bring this into production.

    所以,謝謝你注意到這一點,並給我機會談談這件事。看到這一幕真是令人興奮。仔細想想,我們已經有了認股權證協議,團隊正在積極推動一項積極的盈利支付計劃,順便說一句,這個數字是 20 億美元,到 2029 財年末為止。所以所有這些加起來,就形成了一套很好的激勵機制,鼓勵大家全力以赴地執行,並將這個計畫投入生產。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vivek Arya, Bank of America.

    Vivek Arya,美國銀行。

  • Vivek Arya - Analyst

    Vivek Arya - Analyst

  • Matt, I had two kind of questions on the data center, one on optics and one on custom. So on optics, why correlated to cloud CapEx? Why not do growth of AI accelerators, which is expected to be much faster than the 30%? And then on the custom side, you mentioned 20% as the baseline growth. Is that because the second customer is supposed to come on board? Or is it because you will grow with that first customer?

    馬特,我有兩個關於資料中心的問題,一個是關於光學元件的,一個是關於客製化的。那麼,從光學角度來看,為什麼與雲端資本支出有關呢?為什麼不關注人工智慧加速器的發展?預計其成長速度將遠超 30%。而在客製化方面,您提到基準成長率為 20%。是因為第二位乘客即將登船嗎?還是因為你會和第一位客戶一起成長?

  • And I ask about the second customer because they don't have a history of ramping, big ASIC program. So I just wanted to get your overall views on optics and why correlated to CapEx. And then on the custom side, just kind of puts and takes of the second customer that's supposed to come onboard.

    我詢問第二個客戶的情況,因為他們沒有大規模ASIC專案的經驗。所以我想了解一下您對光學元件的整體看法,以及為什麼它與資本支出相關。然後,在客製化方面,就是第二個即將加入的客戶的各種需求和要求。

  • Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Vivek. Yes. So on your first question, I mean, just the rationale was just to give just a broad proxy to the investment community about how to think about our business of sort of a very common metric, which is CapEx. I agree with you. The optics business is fundamentally driven by AI and AI acceleration. And that's why it's been growing so far above CapEx each year.

    是的。謝謝你,維韋克。是的。所以關於你的第一個問題,我的意思是,其根本原因只是為了向投資界提供一個大致的參考指標,讓他們了解如何看待我們的業務,而這個指標是一個非常常見的指標,即資本支出。我同意你的看法。光學產業的根本驅動力是人工智慧和人工智慧的加速發展。這就是為什麼它每年成長速度都遠遠超過資本支出的原因。

  • But I think this was just in the interest of providing some pretty broad brush strokes but you should certainly assume that the optics piece is tied to AI which is growing faster than CapEx. So that's a fair assumption. But just this was really in the spirit of making this a proxy.

    但我認為這只是為了提供一些大致的概括,但你絕對應該假設光學部分與人工智慧有關,而人工智慧的成長速度比資本支出更快。所以這個假設是合理的。但這樣做確實符合將其作為代理的初衷。

  • And then on the growth next year, yes, that's all still driven by -- the way to think about it is mostly our current business today. So there's a product transition with our lead customer from one generation to another in there. There's some XPU attach that's kicking in, in the second half that's going to lead to the '28 and '29 revenues I was talking about.

    至於明年的成長,是的,這仍然主要由——思考這個問題的方式主要是我們目前的業務驅動。所以,我們主要客戶的產品正在經歷從一代到另一代的過渡。下半年將會有一些 XPU 附加功能開始發揮作用,這將帶來我之前提到的 2028 年和 2029 年的收入。

  • But the next bigger XPU customer we have, not much of that really you should count on for next year. It's really the year after and that's captured in the doubling from fiscal '27 to '28. But I think we've got a very rational base plan for that, that we think is achievable. And then obviously, if things improve or get better, then we would up those numbers.

    但是,我們下一個更大的 XPU 客戶,明年你真的不應該指望會有太多的進展。實際上,這是第二年的情況,這體現在 2027 財年到 2028 財年的翻倍。但我認為我們已經制定了一個非常合理的計劃,我們認為這個計劃是可以實現的。當然,如果情況好轉,我們也會提高這些數字。

  • But I think what we're trying to do right now, Vivek, is just paint a very rational, clear picture for people, and then we'll obviously update along the way more on a granular basis as we go forward. .

    但維韋克,我認為我們現在努力做的,就是為人們描繪一幅非常理性、清晰的圖景,然後隨著我們不斷前進,我們顯然會逐步進行更細緻的更新。。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christopher Rolland, Susquehanna.

    克里斯多福羅蘭,薩斯奎哈納。

  • Christopher Rolland - Analyst

    Christopher Rolland - Analyst

  • Congrats on the results. So I think your main competitor in ASIC has moved to providing racks, not just silicon. And then with this acquisition and kind of given the increasing complexity we're seeing out there, might you be moving to systems and then perhaps even rack-level solutions as well? And do you have the capabilities to do that?

    恭喜取得好成績。所以我認為你在ASIC領域的主要競爭對手已經轉向提供機架,而不僅僅是晶片。隨著此次收購,以及我們所看到的日益複雜的市場環境,您是否會轉向系統級解決方案,甚至可能是機架級解決方案?你有能力做到這一點嗎?

  • Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Chris, for the question. And I would sort of answer the second part, which is, we are very much looking at this as a rack-level solution in totality and that is all the various flavors of optical interconnect. I rattled through a bunch of those. We're the one-stop shop, right, from AECs, traditional DSPs, retimers, LPOs, photonic fabrics and then scale up and scale out switching and XPU attach sockets and circuits to make all this work.

    是的。謝謝克里斯的提問。至於第二個問題,我的回答是,我們正在將其視為一個整體的機架級解決方案,其中包括各種類型的光互連。我快速瀏覽了好幾頁。我們提供一站式服務,從 AEC、傳統 DSP、重定時器、LPO、光子結構,到擴展和橫向擴展的交換和 XPU 連接插座和電路,使所有這些功能都能正常運作。

  • And then working closely with our customers with that vision on how we enable that entire end-to-end and enable them to do that. That's our current strategy. And most of the people we're working with have that capability themselves today. They're very good at it but we also add quite a bit of value in how to think about how to pull it all together.

    然後與我們的客戶緊密合作,共同探討如何實現整個端到端流程,並幫助他們實現這一目標。這是我們目前的策略。而且,我們目前合作的大多數人本身就具備這種能力。他們在這方面做得很好,但我們在如何思考如何將所有內容整合起來方面也貢獻了很多價值。

  • So we absolutely have a rack scale vision, and this is where Celestial AI really fits in. But we don't have any system-level revenues comprehended in anything I've talked to you about over the next two years. But certainly, from a strategic standpoint, it's imperative, right, that we go to market in a very comprehensive way, Chris, and not in a point solution way, but rather be able to provide all the fundamental pieces right from the biggest XPU chip all the way down to a [retimer] on the board.

    所以我們絕對有機架規模的願景,而這正是 Celestial AI 真正發揮作用的地方。但在接下來的兩年裡,我跟你談到的任何事情,我們都還沒有系統層面的收入。但從戰略角度來看,克里斯,我們必須以非常全面的方式進入市場,而不是以點解決方案的方式,而是能夠提供所有基本組件,從最大的 XPU 晶片一直到電路板上的 [重定時器]。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This was our final question for the evening. I'd now like to hand the call back over to management for any closing comments.

    這是我們當晚的最後一個問題。現在我想把電話交還給管理階層,請他們作總結發言。

  • Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Matthew Murphy - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Fantastic, and thanks for all the great questions, and I appreciate everybody listening. I know it was a lot. I think this was the world record for the longest prepared remarks I've ever done. But like I said at the beginning, settle in, because there's a lot of good stuff.

    是的。太棒了,感謝大家提出的所有好問題,也感謝大家的聆聽。我知道這很多。我想這應該是我做過的最長準備發言的世界紀錄了。但就像我一開始說的那樣,放鬆下來,因為這裡有很多好東西。

  • And there really is a lot of great things happening with Marvell. I'm just really pleased with how our team has executed. I want to say thank you to all of them. we have a phenomenal setup for next year, as I indicated, and even through the next year, we just have very good visibility. Programs are on track.

    Marvell 確實有很多很棒的事情正在發生。我對我們團隊的執行非常滿意。我要感謝他們所有人。正如我之前提到的,我們為明年做好了非常充分的準備,而且在接下來的一年裡,我們的前景也十分樂觀。專案進展順利。

  • We are playing offense in this company, okay? We're out doing strategic acquisitions like Celestial AI, and we're thrilled to welcome them to the Marvell team. And I think our future is very bright where we're headed. So appreciate everybody's interest. I look forward to follow-up conversations and appreciate all the investor interest in following Marvell and our journey.

    我們公司要採取進攻策略,懂嗎?我們正在進行像 Celestial AI 這樣的策略性收購,我們非常高興地歡迎他們加入 Marvell 團隊。我認為我們前進的方向充滿希望,未來一片光明。感謝大家的關注。我期待與各位進行後續交流,並感謝各位投資者對 Marvell 及其發展歷程的關注。

  • Thank you, everybody. Have a great day.

    謝謝大家。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you again for your participation.

    謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。再次感謝您的參與。