威達信集團 (MMC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Marsh McLennan's earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. Fourth quarter 2022 financial results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at marshmcLennan.com.

歡迎來到 Marsh McLennan 的收益電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。今天上午早些時候發布了 2022 年第四季度財務業績和補充信息。它們可在公司網站 marshmcLennan.com 上找到。

Please note that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings included in our most recent Form 10-K, all of which are available on the Marsh McLennan website.

請注意，今天發表的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，多種因素可能導致實際結果與此類陳述預期的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素的更詳細討論，請參閱我們本季度的收益發布以及包含在我們最新的 10-K 表格中的我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，所有這些都可以在 Marsh McLennan 網站上找到。

During the call today, we may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release. (Operator Instructions)

在今天的電話會議中，我們還可能會討論某些非 GAAP 財務措施。如需將這些措施與最接近可比的 GAAP 措施進行核對，請參閱今天的收益發布中的時間表。 （操作員說明）

I'll now turn this over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.

我現在將把這個問題交給 Marsh McLennan 的總裁兼首席執行官 John Doyle。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter results reported earlier today. I'm John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan. Joining me on the call today is Mark McGivney, our CFO; and the CEOs of our businesses: Martin South of Marsh; Dean Klisura of Guy Carpenter; Martine Ferland of Mercer; and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman. Also with us this morning is Sarah Dewitt, Head of Investor Relations.

早上好，感謝您加入我們討論我們今天早些時候報告的第四季度業績。我是 Marsh McLennan 的總裁兼首席執行官 John Doyle。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席財務官 Mark McGivney；以及我們業務的首席執行官：Marsh 的 Martin South； Guy Carpenter 的 Dean Klisura；美世的 Martine Ferland；和奧緯諮詢的 Nick Studer。今天早上也和我們在一起的還有投資者關係主管 Sarah Dewitt。

I am excited to be leading this call today for the first time as President and CEO. Marsh McLennan is an outstanding company with unique capabilities in the critical areas of risk, strategy and people. We help clients address their greatest challenges and find new possibilities as they navigate dynamic environments.

我很高興今天第一次以總裁兼首席執行官的身份領導這次電話會議。 Marsh McLennan 是一家傑出的公司，在風險、戰略和人員等關鍵領域擁有獨特的能力。我們幫助客戶解決他們最大的挑戰，並在他們駕馭動態環境時找到新的可能性。

We have exceptional talent, a wide range of solutions and a track record of execution and financial performance. Our leadership team is focused on delivering the full capabilities of Marsh McLennan to our clients, continuously improving the client and colleague experience, efficiently managing capital and driving growth and value for shareholders.

我們擁有卓越的人才、範圍廣泛的解決方案以及在執行和財務業績方面的良好記錄。我們的領導團隊專注於向我們的客戶提供 Marsh McLennan 的全部能力，不斷改善客戶和同事的體驗，有效地管理資本並推動股東的增長和價值。

Over the past year, I've been meeting with colleagues and clients to exchange ideas about how we can accelerate impact for clients and enable their success. These conversations reinforce my conviction that we are in the right businesses with strong brands and deep client relationships. I am confident that we have meaningful opportunity at the intersections of our businesses where, together, our scale, data insights and solutions are highly valued by clients. The strength of our unique value proposition has us well positioned for the years ahead.

在過去的一年裡，我一直在與同事和客戶會面，就我們如何加速對客戶的影響並幫助他們取得成功交換意見。這些對話加強了我的信念，即我們從事正確的業務，擁有強大的品牌和深厚的客戶關係。我相信，我們在業務的交叉點擁有有意義的機會，我們的規模、數據洞察力和解決方案共同受到客戶的高度重視。我們獨特的價值主張的力量使我們在未來幾年處於有利地位。

Today, we are focused, aligned and succeeding together as our results demonstrate. 2022 was an outstanding year for Marsh McLennan. We generated 9% underlying revenue growth, continuing our best period of growth in more than 2 decades with each of our businesses delivering strong results.

今天，正如我們的結果所證明的那樣，我們專注、一致並共同取得成功。 2022 年對 Marsh McLennan 來說是傑出的一年。我們實現了 9% 的基本收入增長，延續了 20 多年來的最佳增長時期，我們的每項業務都取得了強勁的業績。

Our total revenue surpassed $20 billion and adjusted operating income grew 11% to $4.8 billion. This was on top of 18% growth in 2021. We reported adjusted margin expansion for the 15th consecutive year. Adjusted EPS growth was 11%. I am particularly pleased with this performance as our results included costs related to our strategic investments in talent and the continued normalization of T&E.

我們的總收入超過 200 億美元，調整後的營業收入增長 11% 至 48 億美元。這是在 2021 年增長 18% 的基礎上。我們連續第 15 年報告調整後的利潤率增長。調整後每股收益增長 11%。我對這種表現特別滿意，因為我們的結果包括與我們對人才的戰略投資和 T&E 的持續正常化相關的成本。

These results also came on top of 24% growth in 2021. And we delivered significant capital return to shareholders, raising our dividend by 10% and completing $1.9 billion of share repurchases, the largest annual amount in our history.

這些結果還超過了 2021 年 24% 的增長率。我們為股東帶來了可觀的資本回報，將股息提高了 10%，並完成了 19 億美元的股票回購，這是我們歷史上最大的年度回購金額。

We also added to our talent and capabilities, both organically and through attractive acquisitions. MMA acquired 2 top 100 agencies in 2022 and has now surpassed 100 acquisitions since its inception in 2009. Oliver Wyman expanded its capabilities and geographic reach with the acquisitions of Specialty Consultant, Avascent and Booz Allen Hamilton's MENA practice. And Mercer expects to close its transactions from Westpac in Australia in the first half of this year.

我們還通過有機和有吸引力的收購增加了我們的人才和能力。 MMA 在 2022 年收購了 2 家前 100 家機構，自 2009 年成立以來已超過 100 家。Oliver Wyman 通過收購 Specialty Consultant、Avascent 和 Booz Allen Hamilton 的 MENA 業務擴大了其能力和地理範圍。美世預計將在今年上半年完成與澳大利亞西太平洋銀行的交易。

We overcame significant foreign exchange and capital market headwinds to generate these results through execution, growth and exceptional client engagement. I'm particularly proud of these achievements amid a year of seamless leadership transitions at Marsh and Guy Carpenter.

我們克服了重大的外彙和資本市場逆風，通過執行、增長和卓越的客戶參與取得了這些成果。在 Marsh 和 Guy Carpenter 領導層無縫交接的一年中，我為這些成就感到特別自豪。

Our purpose and strategy underpin our performance. Marsh McLennan makes a difference in the moments that matter for our clients, colleagues and our communities.

我們的宗旨和戰略是我們業績的基礎。 Marsh McLennan 在對我們的客戶、同事和社區至關重要的時刻發揮作用。

Turning purpose into practice, our strategy focuses on several core elements: promoting a culture that attracts and retains top talent in our business, investing to strengthen our capabilities organically and inorganically, positioning ourselves in segments and geographies with attractive fundamentals, leveraging data and insights to help clients become more resilient and find new opportunities and delivering Marsh McLennan's full value proposition to enable client success.

將目標轉化為實踐，我們的戰略側重於幾個核心要素：促進吸引和留住我們業務中頂尖人才的文化，投資以有機和無機地增強我們的能力，將我們定位在具有有吸引力的基本面的細分市場和地區，利用數據和洞察力幫助客戶變得更有彈性並找到新的機會，並提供 Marsh McLennan 的全部價值主張，以幫助客戶取得成功。

We complement our colleague and client-facing strategy with our approach to expense and capital management. We focus on growing revenue faster than expenses, which contributes to annual margin expansion and adjusted EPS growth. And we manage capital allocation to balance performance in the near term with investing for the long term.

我們用我們的費用和資本管理方法補充我們的同事和麵向客戶的戰略。我們專注於收入增長快於支出，這有助於擴大年度利潤率和調整後的每股收益增長。我們管理資本配置，以平衡近期業績和長期投資。

We are accelerating collaboration across our business to drive greater growth and efficiency. We are implementing new ways to operate reduce complexity and organize for impact. In this regard, we took actions in the fourth quarter to align our workforce and skill sets with evolving needs, rationalize technology and reduce our real estate footprint. Together, these actions resulted in approximately $230 million of charges.

我們正在加速整個業務的協作，以推動更大的增長和效率。我們正在實施新的運營方式來降低複雜性和組織影響。在這方面，我們在第四季度採取了行動，使我們的員工隊伍和技能組合與不斷變化的需求保持一致，使技術合理化並減少我們的房地產足跡。這些行動加起來產生了大約 2.3 億美元的費用。

Based on our outlook today, we expect they will drive $125 million to $150 million of savings in 2023. Overall, they reflect an opportunity to accelerate impact for clients, reinvest in our capabilities and to be more efficient and connected.

根據我們今天的展望，我們預計它們將在 2023 年節省 1.25 億美元至 1.5 億美元。總體而言，它們反映了一個機會，可以加速對客戶的影響、對我們的能力進行再投資以及提高效率和聯繫。

Now let me provide an update on P&C insurance and reinsurance market conditions. The January 1 reinsurance renewals proved to be the most challenging in nearly 2 decades. The property cat reinsurance market was stressed with pricing and attachment points increasing significantly, reflecting several years of higher-than-expected cat losses, macroeconomic factors and supply and demand imbalances.

現在讓我提供有關 P&C 保險和再保險市場狀況的最新信息。事實證明，1 月 1 日的再保險續保是近 2 年來最具挑戰性的。財產巨災再保險市場受到壓力，定價和附加點顯著增加，反映出幾年來高於預期的巨災損失、宏觀經濟因素和供需失衡。

Global property cat reinsurance rate increases range from 25% to 60% with loss impacted clients often seeing higher pricing. In the U.S., property cat reinsurance rate increases were the highest in 17 years, generally in a range of 40% to 60%. It is important to note that ceded premiums were tempered by higher retentions in most cases.

全球財產巨災再保險費率增幅從 25% 到 60% 不等，受損失影響的客戶通常會看到更高的定價。在美國，財產巨災再保險費率增幅為 17 年來最高，普遍在 40% 至 60% 之間。重要的是要注意，在大多數情況下，較高的保留率會降低分出的保費。

Meanwhile, commercial P&C insurance pricing continues to rise on average across many lines and geographies. While the pace of price increases continue to moderate after rising for 21 consecutive quarters, the tight reinsurance market could have knock-on effects, particularly for property insurance rates. We are focused on helping our clients navigate these difficult insurance and reinsurance markets and the evolving risk landscape.

與此同時，商業財產險的平均定價在許多險種和地區繼續上漲。雖然價格在連續 21 個季度上漲後繼續放緩，但再保險市場吃緊可能會產生連鎖反應，尤其是財產保險費率。我們專注於幫助我們的客戶駕馭這些困難的保險和再保險市場以及不斷變化的風險格局。

Now let me turn to our fourth quarter financial performance. We generated adjusted EPS of $1.47, which is up 8% versus a year ago or 12% excluding the impact of foreign exchange. On an underlying basis, revenue grew 7%.

現在讓我談談我們第四季度的財務業績。我們產生的調整後每股收益為 1.47 美元，比一年前增長 8% 或 12%（不包括外彙的影響）。在基礎上，收入增長了 7%。

Underlying revenue grew 8% in RIS and 6% in Consulting. Marsh grew 6%. Guy Carpenter grew 5%, Mercer grew 5%, and Oliver Wyman grew 8%. Overall, the fourth quarter saw adjusted operating income growth of 13%, and our adjusted operating margin expanded 160 basis points year-over-year.

RIS 的基礎收入增長了 8%，諮詢業務的基礎收入增長了 6%。達信增長了 6%。 Guy Carpenter 增長 5%，Mercer 增長 5%，Oliver Wyman 增長 8%。總體而言，第四季度調整後營業收入增長 13%，調整後營業利潤率同比增長 160 個基點。

As we look ahead to 2023, we see a mixed economic picture. While there is a risk of recession for major economies, we also believe there are many factors that remain supportive of growth for our business.

展望 2023 年，我們看到了喜憂參半的經濟景象。雖然主要經濟體存在衰退風險，但我們也相信有許多因素仍然支持我們業務的增長。

Softer real GDP growth is offset by elevated inflation, which drives higher insured values and loss costs. P&C insurance rates continue to increase as insurers account for rising frequency and severity of catastrophe losses, the risks of social inflation and higher reinsurance costs.

疲軟的實際 GDP 增長被高通脹所抵消，高通脹推動更高的保險價值和損失成本。財產險費率繼續上漲，因為保險公司考慮到災難損失的頻率和嚴重程度不斷上升、社會通貨膨脹的風險和更高的再保險成本。

Health care costs continue to rise due to higher wages and labor shortages in the healthcare sector. The U.S. labor market continues to remain among the tightest employment environments of the past half century with 3.5% unemployment and over 10 million unfilled jobs. And short-term interest rates are at the highest level since the financial crisis, increasing our fiduciary income.

由於醫療保健行業工資上漲和勞動力短缺，醫療保健成本繼續上升。美國勞動力市場繼續處於過去半個世紀以來最緊張的就業環境之中，失業率為 3.5%，有超過 1000 萬個職位空缺。短期利率處於金融危機以來的最高水平，增加了我們的受託收入。

When the world is volatile and uncertain, demand for our services typically rises. This year's Global Risk Report, which we just published in collaboration with the World Economic Forum, highlights that risks confronting our clients extend well beyond economic and insurance cycle concerns. The report identified the cost-of-living crisis, failure to mitigate and adapt to climate change, extreme weather, natural resource crisis, the erosion of social cohesion, cyber crime and geoeconomic confrontation among the top risks facing society over the near term and next decade.

當世界動盪和不確定時，對我們服務的需求通常會增加。我們剛剛與世界經濟論壇合作發布了今年的全球風險報告，強調我們客戶面臨的風險遠遠超出經濟和保險週期問題。該報告指出，生活成本危機、未能緩解和適應氣候變化、極端天氣、自然資源危機、社會凝聚力受損、網絡犯罪和地緣經濟對抗是近期和未來社會面臨的首要風險十年。

In these areas and many others, we are working with clients to meet these challenges, build resilience and capture new opportunities. Our colleagues are inspired by the opportunity to work on these critical issues and to make a difference in the moments that matter.

在這些領域和許多其他領域，我們正與客戶合作應對這些挑戰、增強韌性並抓住新機遇。我們的同事因有機會處理這些關鍵問題並在關鍵時刻有所作為而深受鼓舞。

Looking forward, we are well positioned for 2023 and beyond. We expect mid-single-digit or better underlying revenue growth in 2023, another year of margin expansion and strong growth in adjusted EPS.

展望未來，我們已為 2023 年及以後做好準備。我們預計 2023 年基本收入將實現中個位數或更好的增長，這又是利潤率擴張和調整後每股收益強勁增長的一年。

Our outlook assumes current macro conditions persist, but meaningful uncertainty exists and the economic backdrop could be materially different than our assumptions. However, we have a track record of resilience across economic cycles.

我們的展望假設當前的宏觀狀況持續存在，但存在重大不確定性，經濟背景可能與我們的假設存在重大差異。然而，我們在整個經濟周期都有韌性的記錄。

In summary, 2022 was an outstanding year for Marsh McLennan, one in which all of our businesses delivered strong performance. We generated record revenues and earnings, saw the benefit of recent investments in growth, continue to execute on our acquisition strategy and made record share repurchases.

總而言之，2022 年對 Marsh McLennan 來說是傑出的一年，我們所有的業務都取得了強勁的業績。我們創造了創紀錄的收入和收益，看到了近期增長投資的好處，繼續執行我們的收購戰略並進行了創紀錄的股票回購。

We are proud of the focus and determination of our colleagues and the value they deliver to our clients and shareholders. We closed the year on a high note and look forward to another year of strong performance in 2023.

我們為我們同事的專注和決心以及他們為我們的客戶和股東帶來的價值感到自豪。我們以高調結束了這一年，並期待在 2023 年再創佳績。

With that, let me turn it over to Mark for a more detailed review of our results.

有了這個，讓我把它轉交給馬克，以便對我們的結果進行更詳細的審查。

Thank you, John, and good morning. We are pleased with our strong fourth quarter results, which capped another terrific year. We delivered strength on strength from a financial performance perspective and continue to invest organically and inorganically. These investments, combined with the actions we took in the fourth quarter, position us well for another good year in 2023.

謝謝你，約翰，早上好。我們對我們強勁的第四季度業績感到滿意，這又是一個了不起的一年。從財務業績的角度來看，我們的實力不斷增強，並繼續進行有機和無機投資。這些投資，加上我們在第四季度採取的行動，使我們在 2023 年又是一個好年頭。

Consolidated revenue decreased 2% in the fourth quarter to $5 billion. As a reminder, fourth quarter last year included a large gain related to Marsh India. Foreign exchange was also a meaningful headwind to GAAP revenue growth.

第四季度合併收入下降 2% 至 50 億美元。提醒一下，去年第四季度包括與 Marsh India 相關的大量收益。外匯也是 GAAP 收入增長的重要阻力。

However, on an underlying basis, revenue increased 7%. Operating income in the fourth quarter was $680 million, and adjusted operating income increased 13% to $1 billion. Our adjusted operating margin increased 160 basis points to 22%. GAAP EPS was $0.93, and adjusted EPS was $1.47.

然而，在基礎上，收入增長了 7%。第四季度營業收入為 6.8 億美元，調整後營業收入增長 13% 至 10 億美元。我們調整後的營業利潤率增加了 160 個基點，達到 22%。 GAAP 每股收益為 0.93 美元，調整後每股收益為 1.47 美元。

Our full year 2022 results were outstanding. Operating income for the year was $4.3 billion, and adjusted operating income was $4.8 billion, an increase of 11% over 2021. Adjusted EPS grew 11% to $6.85, and our adjusted operating margin expanded 80 basis points, marking our 15th consecutive year of reported margin expansion.

我們 2022 年全年的業績非常出色。全年營業收入為 43 億美元，調整後營業收入為 48 億美元，比 2021 年增長 11%。調整後每股收益增長 11% 至 6.85 美元，調整後營業利潤率擴大 80 個基點，這是我們連續第 15 年報告保證金擴張。

2022 was also a strong year for capital management. We deployed $3.9 billion of capital, enhanced our short-term liquidity, raised our dividend 10% and saw Moody's lift our rating outlook to positive.

2022 年也是資本管理表現強勁的一年。我們部署了 39 億美元的資本，增強了我們的短期流動性，將股息提高了 10%，穆迪將我們的評級展望上調至正面。

Looking at Risk & Insurance Services. Fourth quarter revenue decreased 3% to $2.9 billion. Note that RIS and specifically, Marsh is where the India gain affected our revenue comparisons. On an underlying basis, revenue in RIS increased 8%, a strong result reflecting the momentum in our business and our resilience in the face of macro headwinds and economic uncertainty.

查看風險與保險服務。第四季度收入下降 3% 至 29 億美元。請注意，RIS，特別是達信是印度收益影響我們收入比較的地方。在基礎上，RIS 的收入增長了 8%，這一強勁結果反映了我們業務的發展勢頭以及我們在面對宏觀逆風和經濟不確定性時的韌性。

RIS operating income was $472 million in the fourth quarter. Adjusted operating income increased 23% to $685 million. The adjusted margin expanded 290 basis points to 25.6%.

RIS 第四季度營業收入為 4.72 億美元。調整後營業收入增長 23% 至 6.85 億美元。調整後的利潤率擴大了 290 個基點，達到 25.6%。

For the year, revenue in RIS was $12.6 billion, an increase of 5% with underlying growth of 9%. Adjusted operating income growth for the year was impressive at 15%. Our adjusted operating margin in RIS increased 130 basis points to 29.8%.

全年，RIS 的收入為 126 億美元，增長 5%，基本增長率為 9%。全年調整後營業收入增長率高達 15%，令人印象深刻。我們調整後的 RIS 營業利潤率增加了 130 個基點，達到 29.8%。

At Marsh, revenue in the quarter decreased 6% to $2.7 billion but was up 6% on an underlying basis. This comes on top of a tough comparison to the fourth quarter of last year, which saw strong M&A and SPAC-related activity. For the full year, revenue at Marsh was $10.5 billion, an increase of 3% or 8% on an underlying basis.

在 Marsh，本季度收入下降 6% 至 27 億美元，但基本增長 6%。這是與去年第四季度相比的艱難對比，去年第四季度併購和 SPAC 相關活動強勁。達信全年收入為 105 億美元，基礎增長 3% 或 8%。

In U.S. and Canada, underlying growth was 5% for the quarter, a solid result given the headwind from lower M&A and capital markets activity. We expect this headwind to persist into the first quarter but normalize as we enter the second quarter.

在美國和加拿大，本季度基本增長率為 5%，考慮到併購和資本市場活動減少帶來的逆風，這是一個穩健的結果。我們預計這種逆風將持續到第一季度，但隨著我們進入第二季度而正常化。

For the full year, underlying growth in U.S. and Canada was excellent at 7%. In international, underlying growth was 8% in the quarter with Asia Pacific up 12%, EMEA up 7%, and Latin America up 4%. For the full year, underlying growth in international was strong at 10%.

全年來看，美國和加拿大的基本增長率為 7%，表現出色。在國際市場，本季度基本增長率為 8%，其中亞太地區增長 12%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區增長 7%，拉丁美洲增長 4%。全年來看，國際基礎增長強勁，達到 10%。

Guy Carpenter's revenue was $171 million, up 5% on an underlying basis. For the year, revenue was $2 billion, an increase of 8% or 9% on an underlying basis. Based on our current outlook, we expect Guy Carpenter's growth in 2023 to benefit from a tightening reinsurance market.

Guy Carpenter 的收入為 1.71 億美元，基本增長 5%。全年收入為 20 億美元，基礎增長 8% 或 9%。根據我們目前的展望，我們預計 Guy Carpenter 在 2023 年的增長將受益於緊縮的再保險市場。

In the Consulting segment, fourth quarter revenue was $2.1 billion, flat versus the prior year. Revenue grew 6% on an underlying basis. Consulting operating income was $336 million, and adjusted operating income was $407 million, down 1%, reflecting continued foreign exchange and capital markets headwinds. The adjusted operating margin was 20% in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 20 basis points.

在諮詢部門，第四季度收入為 21 億美元，與上年持平。基礎收入增長 6%。諮詢營業收入為 3.36 億美元，調整後營業收入為 4.07 億美元，下降 1%，反映了外彙和資本市場持續的逆風。第四季度調整後的營業利潤率為 20%，下降了 20 個基點。

For the full year, Consulting revenue was $8.1 billion, an increase of 8% on an underlying basis. Adjusted operating income for the year increased 4% to $1.5 billion, while our adjusted operating margin decreased 10 basis points to 19.7%.

全年，諮詢收入為 81 億美元，基礎增長 8%。全年調整後營業收入增長 4% 至 15 億美元，而我們調整後的營業利潤率下降 10 個基點至 19.7%。

Mercer's revenue was $1.3 billion in the quarter, up 5% on an underlying basis. This is a good result considering the impact of capital markets on our investments business. Wealth was flat on an underlying basis due to year-over-year declines in both equity and fixed income markets. Solid growth in defined benefits helped mitigate the drop in investments.

美世本季度的收入為 13 億美元，同比增長 5%。考慮到資本市場對我們投資業務的影響，這是一個很好的結果。由於股票和固定收益市場同比下降，財富基本持平。固定福利的穩健增長有助於緩解投資下降的影響。

Our assets under management were $345 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, up 9% sequentially but down 17% from the fourth quarter of last year due to market declines in foreign exchange, which more than offset strong positive net flows. Health revenue grew 8% on an underlying basis in the fourth quarter, reflecting strength in employer and government segments and momentum across all regions.

截至第四季度末，我們管理的資產為 3,450 億美元，環比增長 9%，但由於外匯市場下跌抵消了強勁的正淨流量，因此比去年第四季度下降了 17%。第四季度醫療保健收入基本增長 8%，反映了雇主和政府部門的實力以及所有地區的發展勢頭。

Career revenue increased 12% on an underlying basis, reflecting continued demand in rewards, talent strategy and workforce transformation. For the year, revenue at Mercer was $5.3 billion, an increase of 6% on an underlying basis, the highest result since 2008.

職業收入基本增長 12%，反映了對獎勵、人才戰略和勞動力轉型的持續需求。這一年，美世的收入為 53 億美元，基本增長 6%，是 2008 年以來的最高水平。

Oliver Wyman's revenue in the fourth quarter was $765 million, an increase of 8% on an underlying basis, a solid result considering a tough comparison to 22% growth in the fourth quarter of 2021. For the full year, Oliver Wyman's revenue was $2.8 billion, an increase of 13% on an underlying basis, building on a 21% growth in 2021. As we look to 2023, we expect growth at Oliver Wyman to slow, given rising economic uncertainty.

奧緯諮詢第四季度的收入為 7.65 億美元，基本增長 8%，考慮到與 2021 年第四季度 22% 的增長率相比，這是一個穩健的結果。全年，奧緯諮詢的收入為 28 億美元，在 2021 年增長 21% 的基礎上基礎增長 13%。展望 2023 年，鑑於經濟不確定性上升，我們預計奧緯諮詢的增長將放緩。

Adjusted corporate expense was $68 million in the quarter. Foreign exchange was a $0.05 headwind in the fourth quarter and for the full year was a $0.12 headwind. Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect FX to be a $0.03 headwind in 2023, with $0.05 in the first quarter and $0.02 in the second quarter, reversing to a modest tailwind in the second half.

本季度調整後的公司費用為 6800 萬美元。外彙在第四季度是 0.05 美元的不利因素，全年是 0.12 美元的不利因素。假設匯率保持在當前水平，我們預計 2023 年外匯將成為 0.03 美元的逆風，第一季度為 0.05 美元，第二季度為 0.02 美元，下半年將逆轉為適度的順風。

I want to spend a minute on the $344 million of noteworthy items in the quarter, the majority of which related to actions we initiated last year as well as the final exit of JLT's headquarters in London. The largest category of noteworthy items in the quarter was $233 million relating to restructuring activities, which are focused on workforce actions, rationalizing technology and reducing our overall real estate footprint.

我想花一分鐘時間談談本季度價值 3.44 億美元的值得注意的項目，其中大部分與我們去年發起的行動以及 JLT 倫敦總部的最終退出有關。本季度值得注意的最大項目類別是與重組活動相關的 2.33 億美元，這些活動的重點是勞動力行動、技術合理化和減少我們的整體房地產足跡。

The charges included severance associated with headcount reductions as well as provisions related to real estate actions. Although we expect some reinvestment of the savings from these actions, the majority will flow to earnings. Based on our outlook today, we expect the benefit to earnings in 2023 could be $125 million to $150 million.

這些費用包括與裁員相關的遣散費以及與房地產訴訟相關的準備金。儘管我們預計這些行動節省下來的資金會進行一些再投資，但大部分將流向收益。根據我們今天的展望，我們預計 2023 年收益可能達到 1.25 億美元至 1.5 億美元。

We anticipate further actions under this program, which will continue through 2023 and possibly into 2024. We are still refining estimates of future opportunities, but at this point, we don't see additional charges in 2023 or 2024 exceeding the amounts taken in 2022.

我們預計該計劃將採取進一步行動，該計劃將持續到 2023 年，並可能持續到 2024 年。我們仍在完善對未來機會的估計，但目前，我們認為 2023 年或 2024 年的額外費用不會超過 2022 年的費用。

As we typically do on our fourth quarter calls, I will give a brief update on our global retirement plans. Our other net benefit credit was $57 million in the quarter and $235 million for the full year. For 2023, based on our current expectations, we anticipate our other net benefit credit will be about $235 million.

正如我們通常在第四季度電話會議上所做的那樣，我將簡要介紹一下我們的全球退休計劃。本季度我們的其他淨收益信貸為 5700 萬美元，全年為 2.35 億美元。對於 2023 年，根據我們目前的預期，我們預計我們的其他淨收益信貸將約為 2.35 億美元。

Cash contributions to our global defined benefit plans were $169 million in 2022. We expect cash contributions will be roughly $107 million in 2023. Investment income was a loss of $6 million in the fourth quarter on a GAAP basis and a loss of $5 million on an adjusted basis and mainly reflects losses in our private equity portfolio.

到 2022 年，我們全球固定福利計劃的現金出資為 1.69 億美元。我們預計到 2023 年現金出資將約為 1.07 億美元。根據 GAAP，第四季度投資收益虧損 600 萬美元，第二季度虧損 500 萬美元調整後的基礎，主要反映了我們私募股權投資組合的損失。

Given current market conditions, we anticipate negligible investment income in the first quarter of 2023. This compares to $17 million of investment income in the first quarter of 2022 on an adjusted basis.

鑑於當前的市場狀況，我們預計 2023 年第一季度的投資收益微乎其微。相比之下，2022 年第一季度調整後的投資收益為 1700 萬美元。

Interest expense in the fourth quarter was $127 million. Based on our current forecast, we expect interest expense for the full year of 2023 of approximately $565 million. This reflects an increase in long-term debt and higher interest rates on commercial paper, which we use for efficient working capital management.

第四季度的利息支出為 1.27 億美元。根據我們目前的預測，我們預計 2023 年全年的利息支出約為 5.65 億美元。這反映了長期債務的增加和商業票據利率的提高，我們將其用於有效的營運資金管理。

Our adjusted effective tax rate in the fourth quarter was 22.9%. This compares with 20.6% in the fourth quarter last year. Both periods benefited from favorable discrete items. For the full year 2022, our adjusted effective tax rate was 23.5% compared with 23.6% in 2021. Excluding discrete items, our adjusted effective tax rate for the full year was approximately 25%.

我們調整後的第四季度有效稅率為 22.9%。相比之下，去年第四季度為 20.6%。這兩個時期都受益於有利的離散項目。對於 2022 年全年，我們調整後的實際稅率為 23.5%，而 2021 年為 23.6%。不包括離散項目，我們調整後的全年實際稅率約為 25%。

When we give forward guidance around our tax rate, we do not project discrete items, which can be positive or negative. Based on the current environment, it is reasonable to assume a tax rate of 25% to 26% for 2023.

當我們就稅率給出前瞻性指引時，我們不會預測離散項目，這些項目可以是正數也可以是負數。基於目前的環境，假設2023年的稅率為25%至26%是合理的。

Turning to capital management on our balance sheet. We ended the year with total debt of $11.5 billion. This includes the $1 billion of senior notes we issued in October. We used a portion of the proceeds from this offering to redeem $350 million of senior notes that were scheduled to mature in March 2023. Our next scheduled debt maturity is in October 2023 when $250 million of senior notes mature.

轉向資產負債表上的資本管理。我們在年底的總債務為 115 億美元。這包括我們在 10 月份發行的 10 億美元優先票據。我們使用此次發行的部分收益贖回原定於 2023 年 3 月到期的 3.5 億美元優先票據。我們的下一個預定債務到期日是 2023 年 10 月，屆時 2.5 億美元的優先票據到期。

Our cash position at the end of the fourth quarter was $1.4 billion. Uses of cash in the quarter totaled $1 billion and included $298 million for dividends, $395 million for acquisitions and $350 million for share repurchases.

我們在第四季度末的現金頭寸為 14 億美元。本季度現金使用總額為 10 億美元，其中包括 2.98 億美元的股息、3.95 億美元的收購和 3.5 億美元的股票回購。

For the year, uses of cash totaled $3.9 billion, included $1.1 billion for dividends, $806 million for acquisitions and $1.9 billion for share repurchases. As a reminder, we have a balanced capital management strategy that supports our consistent focus on delivering solid performance in the near term while investing for sustained growth over the long term.

全年，現金使用總額為 39 億美元，其中包括 11 億美元的股息、8.06 億美元的收購和 19 億美元的股票回購。提醒一下，我們有一個平衡的資本管理策略，支持我們始終專注於在短期內提供穩健的業績，同時投資於長期的持續增長。

We prioritize reinvestment in the business, both for organic investments and acquisitions. We favor attractive acquisitions over share repurchases and believe they are the better value creator for shareholders and the company over the long term.

我們優先考慮對業務進行再投資，包括有機投資和收購。我們更喜歡有吸引力的收購，而不是股票回購，並相信從長遠來看，它們能為股東和公司創造更好的價值。

However, we also recognize that returning capital to shareholders generates meaningful returns for investors over time. And each year, we target raising our dividend and reducing our share count.

然而，我們也認識到，隨著時間的推移，向股東返還資本會為投資者帶來有意義的回報。每年，我們的目標都是提高股息並減少股份數量。

Looking ahead to 2023 based on our outlook today, we expect to deploy approximately $4 billion of capital across dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases. The ultimate level of share repurchase will depend on how the M&A pipeline develops.

根據我們今天的展望，展望 2023 年，我們預計將在股息、收購和股票回購方面部署約 40 億美元的資本。股份回購的最終水平將取決於併購管道的發展情況。

As John noted, there is significant uncertainty in the outlook for the global economy. However, we feel good about our momentum and position. And despite the uncertainty, there are factors that remain supportive of growth in our business.

正如約翰指出的那樣，全球經濟前景存在很大的不確定性。然而，我們對我們的勢頭和地位感到滿意。儘管存在不確定性，但仍有一些因素支持我們業務的增長。

Based on our outlook today, for 2023, we expect mid-single-digit or better underlying revenue growth, margin expansion and strong growth in adjusted EPS.

根據我們今天的展望，我們預計 2023 年的基本收入增長將達到中個位數或更好，利潤率將擴大，調整後的每股收益將強勁增長。

And with that, I'm happy to turn it back to John.

有了這個，我很高興把它轉回給約翰。

Thank you, Mark. Andrew, we are ready to begin Q&A.

謝謝你，馬克。安德魯，我們準備好開始問答了。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

I had a question first just on the restructuring actions. And sort of wanted to just take a step back and just ask is this a -- are you instituting a downturn playbook just based on something you're seeing in the revenue environment that it hasn't shown up in results yet, but is that something that you're seeing and this is a defensive move? Or should I think of this as more of an offensive move just -- from picking up some low-hanging fruit that you see just sort of offer -- improving your efficiency throughout the organization?

我首先有一個關於重組行動的問題。有點想退後一步，問問這是不是——你是否只是根據你在收入環境中看到的一些尚未顯示在結果中的東西來製定一個低迷的劇本，但是那是嗎？你看到的東西，這是一個防禦性的舉動？或者我是否應該將這更多地視為一種進攻性舉措——從撿起一些你認為只是某種提議的唾手可得的果實——提高整個組織的效率？

David, there's nothing defensive about the move, right? We took steps to align our workforce and skill sets with the evolving needs of our clients.

大衛，此舉沒有什麼防禦性的，對吧？我們採取措施使我們的員工隊伍和技能組合與客戶不斷變化的需求保持一致。

As I noted when I outlined some of the highlights of the Global Risk Report, those client challenges and opportunities are constantly evolving and dynamic. And we've also identified some opportunities to create some greater efficiencies across our businesses.

正如我在概述全球風險報告的一些要點時指出的那樣，這些客戶挑戰和機遇在不斷變化和變化。我們還發現了一些機會，可以在我們的業務中創造更高的效率。

We're working more closely together. We've rationalized some technology, reduced our real estate footprint. So it's not an indication of what we think the economic outlook is.

我們正在更緊密地合作。我們已經合理化了一些技術，減少了我們的房地產足跡。因此，這並不表示我們認為經濟前景如何。

Got it. And then maybe just -- if you could just talk about some of the 3 drivers that you spoke of. I guess it was real estate, technology and workforce. Any way to size which -- how much of that benefit is coming from each of those buckets? And how we should think about some of the future actions that you might be taking?

知道了。然後也許只是——如果你能談談你提到的 3 個驅動程序中的一些。我猜是房地產、技術和勞動力。有什麼方法可以確定每個桶中的每個桶帶來多少收益？我們應該如何考慮您可能採取的一些未來行動？

It's a mix. It's fairly balanced between the 3 different areas. I mean as Mark noted, we're still doing some work, and we see some further opportunities.

這是一個混合。它在 3 個不同區域之間相當平衡。我的意思是，正如馬克所說，我們仍在做一些工作，我們看到了更多的機會。

However, I think it's likely that further charges would be less than what we took in the fourth quarter here. But again, we're challenging ourselves looking at where we've got talent, how it comes together, matching that against evolving needs in the marketplace and then pushing ourselves to operate in a different way in a more efficient way.

但是，我認為進一步的收費可能會低於我們在第四季度收取的費用。但同樣，我們正在挑戰自己，看看我們在哪裡擁有人才，他們是如何聚集在一起的，將其與市場不斷變化的需求相匹配，然後推動我們以更有效的方式以不同的方式運作。

And our next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

So John, you mentioned a little bit in your comments on just the hard market in reinsurance and also the firm market in commercial lines. Can you talk a little bit more about what you're seeing, if you're seeing any changes in client behavior whether more sort of self-insurance or higher retention rates at both Marsh and Guy Carpenter?

所以約翰，你在評論中提到了一些關於再保險的硬市場和商業保險市場的堅挺市場。如果您在 Marsh 和 Guy Carpenter 看到客戶行為發生任何變化，無論是更多的自我保險還是更高的保留率，您能多談談您所看到的嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Jimmy, for the question. As I noted in my comments, it was a very challenging January 1 property cat renewal. We expected it to be a challenging renewal season prior to Ian, and then Ian, of course, exacerbated it.

當然。吉米，謝謝你提出這個問題。正如我在評論中指出的那樣，這是一次非常具有挑戰性的 1 月 1 日財產貓更新。在伊恩之前，我們預計這將是一個充滿挑戰的續約賽季，當然，伊恩加劇了它。

I did mention that some of the higher costs are offset a bit by higher retentions. My comments there were primarily about reinsurance and not insurance. But I'll ask Dean and Martin to comment a bit in a second.

我確實提到過，一些較高的成本被較高的保留率所抵消。我的評論主要是關於再保險而不是保險。但我會請 Dean 和 Martin 稍後發表評論。

But what I would say, I commented on the higher cat losses over the last several years. Reinsurers, of course, now have a higher cost of capital, inflation, mark-to-market losses on the asset side of their balance sheet, just FX as well. A number of the big reinsurers and a lot of the cat programs in the United States created some FX challenges as well.

但我要說的是，我對過去幾年較高的巨災損失發表了評論。當然，再保險公司現在在其資產負債表的資產方面面臨更高的資本成本、通貨膨脹、按市值計價的損失，外匯也是如此。美國的許多大型再保險公司和許多巨災計劃也帶來了一些外匯挑戰。

So just a number of different factors led to really reevaluation of pricing and capacity deployment from some of the bigger capital providers. But Dean, maybe you'll -- you can go first and give an overview.

因此，只是一些不同的因素導致了一些較大的資本提供者對定價和產能部署的真正重新評估。但 Dean，也許你會——你可以先做一個概述。

Yes, sure. Thanks, John. I think in terms of client guiding patterns, at January 1 in reinsurance, I mean, you mentioned increased retentions attachment points. I mean that was reinsured-driven, right? Attachment points were up substantially for many of our clients, not only in the United States but in all geographies with January 1 cat renewals.

是的，當然。謝謝，約翰。我認為就客戶指導模式而言，在 1 月 1 日的再保險中，我的意思是，你提到了增加的保留附加點。我的意思是那是再保險驅動的，對吧？我們的許多客戶的附加點大幅增加，不僅在美國，而且在 1 月 1 日續訂貓的所有地區。

So our clients were forced to take more risk, more volatility on their balance sheets. In terms of buying patterns, that inflation-driven demand for additional limit everybody talked about all fall didn't really materialize.

因此，我們的客戶被迫承擔更多風險，資產負債表波動更大。就購買模式而言，所有人都在談論整個秋季的通貨膨脹驅動的額外限制需求並沒有真正實現。

Clients mostly bought the same amount of cat limit they bought last year, maybe up incrementally, maybe our global clients bought a little bit more. But in terms of limit, some of that limit that was eliminated at the bottom end of cat programs was put on top of programs, right? So clients made that up.

客戶大多購買了他們去年購買的相同數量的貓限額，也許是遞增的，也許我們的全球客戶購買了更多一點。但是就限製而言，在 cat 程序的底部取消的一些限制被放在了程序的頂部，對嗎？所以客戶彌補了這一點。

But in terms of buying more, I think for many clients, it was cost prohibitive given the rate increases that John outlined around property cat, very challenging terms and conditions. Really reinsurers have the upper hand in this marketplace around pricing, attachment point and very challenging terms and conditions.

但就購買更多而言，我認為對於許多客戶來說，考慮到約翰圍繞財產貓概述的利率上漲，非常具有挑戰性的條款和條件，成本過高。在這個市場上，真正的再保險公司在定價、附加點和非常具有挑戰性的條款和條件方面佔據上風。

Thanks, Dean. Martin, do you want to share some observations about the insurance market?

謝謝，院長。 Martin，你想分享一些關於保險市場的觀察嗎？

Yes. Thank you, John, and thanks, Dean. I'll just comment. The rate increase, which we've been measuring going back a number of years was still positive for the quarter. We're in the 21st quarter of rate increases, about 4%, which is tough for our clients. And of course, that is going to impact on their behaviors, casualties leveling off at 3.

是的。謝謝你，約翰，謝謝，迪恩。我只會評論。我們多年來一直在衡量的利率上漲對本季度仍然是積極的。我們在第 21 個季度加息，大約 4%，這對我們的客戶來說很難。當然，這會影響他們的行為，傷亡人數穩定在 3 人。

Property accelerated slightly to 7% in the last quarter. We anticipate that, that's going to continue through Q1 of next year as they absorb the cost of the high cat losses, which -- and reinsurance costs that Dean described.

房地產在上個季度略有加速，達到 7%。我們預計，這將持續到明年第一季度，因為他們吸收了巨額巨額損失的成本，以及 Dean 描述的再保險成本。

D&O softened a little bit, and we saw that trend going on and the overall D&O rates were down 6%. That was a combination of things. One, less SPAC activity, which tended to be higher rated. The new entrants into the marketplace globally, about 20 new carriers came into the market, deployed capital, which enabled some other clients to increase their limits actually and take opportunities that they saw in that market.

D&O 有所軟化，我們看到這種趨勢還在繼續，整體 D&O 利率下降了 6%。那是多種因素的結合。一是 SPAC 活動較少，往往評級較高。全球市場的新進入者，約有 20 家新運營商進入市場，部署資本，這使其他一些客戶能夠實際增加限額並抓住他們在該市場中看到的機會。

And the cyber rates continued to accelerate at 28%, although that is a deceleration in rate increase, in the last quarter, we saw 53%. In terms of behavior, our clients are constantly looking at the optimization of their programs.

網絡費率繼續以 28% 的速度增長，儘管上個季度的費率增長有所放緩，我們看到了 53%。在行為方面，我們的客戶不斷關注其程序的優化。

Our captive management business grew nearly double digits in the quarter and for the year as clients retain some more of their risk, and we have a wide range of value propositions to help our clients for the risk which they retain and they manage. And so we feel bullish that the changing market is not going to dampen our growth.

我們的專屬管理業務在本季度和全年增長了近兩位數，因為客戶保留了更多的風險，我們有廣泛的價值主張來幫助我們的客戶應對他們保留和管理的風險。因此，我們樂觀地認為，不斷變化的市場不會抑制我們的增長。

So Jimmy, it remains a dynamic and challenging market for our clients, higher cat losses, risks of core inflation, social inflation. So we continue to observe underwriting discipline broadly speaking across the market. Do you have a follow-up?

所以吉米，對我們的客戶來說，它仍然是一個充滿活力和挑戰性的市場，更高的巨災損失，核心通脹風險，社會通脹。因此，我們繼續在整個市場上廣泛遵守承銷紀律。你有跟進嗎？

Yes. Just for Mark on fiduciary investment income. It's obviously gone up a lot and even sequentially up over 50% from 3Q and 4Q. Do you expect -- should we expect a further increase in that over time? Because what we've seen recently is in some of the regions, rates are actually flattish over the past several months. So is there more of sort of a lag effect of what's happened with rates in fiduciary investment income? Or has the portfolio mostly reset higher?

是的。僅針對馬克的信託投資收益。它顯然上漲了很多，甚至比第三季度和第四季度連續上漲了 50% 以上。您是否期望 - 我們是否應該期望隨著時間的推移進一步增加？因為我們最近看到的是在某些地區，過去幾個月的利率實際上持平。那麼，受託投資收入利率的變化是否存在更多的滯後效應？還是投資組合大多重置得更高？

Thanks, Jimmy. We certainly see continued upside in fiduciary income as we look to this year, rates really didn't start to move until the back half of the year, as you know. And even though it seems like a little bit of slowdown in a lot of places, the expectation is rates have not peaked.

謝謝，吉米。展望今年，我們當然會看到受託收入持續上升，如你所知，利率直到今年下半年才真正開始變動。儘管在很多地方看起來有點放緩，但預期利率還沒有見頂。

And also remember, even for the fourth quarter, that's an average rate over the course of the quarter, and rates moved even in the quarter. So it is something that we expect to continue to give us benefit into this year.

還要記住，即使是第四季度，這也是整個季度的平均利率，而且利率甚至在本季度發生變化。因此，我們希望在今年繼續為我們帶來好處。

Thanks Jimmy. Andrew, can we have the next question, please?

謝謝吉米。安德魯，我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

Certainly. And our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

當然。我們的下一個問題來自 Elyse Greenspan 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

My first question, I guess, combines the expense program and some of your fiduciary investment income comments. So the expense program seems like it could be around a 70 basis point tailwind to your margins in '23. And then I would assume you would get incremental uplift from fiduciary investment income rising per Mark's prior comments. So should we think of those 2 components as a pretty good tailwind to your margin when we think about 2023 margin improvement?

我想我的第一個問題結合了費用計劃和您的一些信託投資收入評論。因此，費用計劃似乎可能會在 23 年對您的利潤率產生大約 70 個基點的順風。然後我假設你會根據馬克之前的評論從信託投資收入的增加中獲得增量提升。那麼，當我們考慮 2023 年的利潤率改善時，我們是否應該將這兩個組成部分視為對您的利潤率的一個很好的推動力？

We're -- I'm not going to give margin guidance on the call, Elyse, and thanks for your question. Again, I think we're well positioned. We're in terrific businesses, just outstanding talent. And while there's some macro uncertainty, of course, that's out there, we expect strong revenue growth this year. And we expect to increase our margins over the course of the year.

我們 - 我不會在電話會議上提供保證金指導，Elyse，謝謝你的問題。同樣，我認為我們的定位很好。我們從事出色的業務，只有傑出的人才。當然，儘管存在一些宏觀不確定性，但我們預計今年的收入將強勁增長。我們希望在這一年中增加我們的利潤率。

Mark and I both share a bit what we expect to flow to the bottom line from the program this year. But we expect to maintain that discipline, that financial discipline that we've had for many years and to expand margin and have strong adjusted EPS growth this year.

馬克和我都分享了一些我們希望從今年的計劃中流向底線的東西。但我們希望保持這種紀律，即我們多年來擁有的財務紀律，並擴大利潤率並在今年實現強勁的調整後每股收益增長。

And then my second question, you guys talked about some pretty robust reinsurance rate increases at January 1. Have you guys seen any changes on your commission structure just given the strong pricing? Are you making any changes to help your clients in the face of that pricing?

然後是我的第二個問題，你們談到了 1 月 1 日的一些相當強勁的再保險費率增長。你們有沒有看到你們的佣金結構有任何變化只是因為定價強勁？面對這種定價，您是否做出任何改變來幫助您的客戶？

And then Mark did say that you guys -- that Guy Carpenter would see pretty strong growth over the coming year. I mean we've never -- we haven't been in an environment, right, with 40-plus percent price increases. How does that triangulate into organic growth within Guy Carpenter?

然後馬克確實說過你們 - Guy Carpenter 會在來年看到相當強勁的增長。我的意思是我們從來沒有——我們沒有處於這樣的環境中，對，價格上漲了 40% 以上。這如何在 Guy Carpenter 內部形成有機增長？

We have been in that environment before. We've been around a long time, but it's been close to 20 years since we've operated in that kind of environment. We expect a good year of revenue growth at Guy Carpenter.

我們以前一直在那種環境中。我們已經存在很長時間了，但自從我們在那種環境中運營以來已經將近 20 年了。我們預計 Guy Carpenter 的收入將在今年實現良好增長。

As I noted in my prepared remarks, ceded premiums won't track that rate increase, right, as our insurance company clients retain more risk or had their cat programs attached at a higher level. We work with our clients, of course, to manage our compensation. We're very transparent about that. In some cases, there are capped commission agreements that we have with our clients. But again, we expect it to be a good year for Guy Carpenter.

正如我在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，讓出的保費不會隨著利率的上漲而變化，對吧，因為我們的保險公司客戶保留了更多的風險，或者他們的巨災計劃附加在了更高的水平上。當然，我們與客戶合作來管理我們的薪酬。我們對此非常透明。在某些情況下，我們與客戶簽訂了有上限的佣金協議。但同樣，我們希望今年對 Guy Carpenter 來說是個好年頭。

And any change in the commission structure?

佣金結構有何變化？

So as I said, we worked through that with our clients. We have agreements with them and a very transparent dialogue about how we're remunerated. Thank you. Andrew, next question please?

正如我所說，我們與客戶一起解決了這個問題。我們與他們達成協議，並就我們如何獲得報酬進行非常透明的對話。謝謝。安德魯，下一個問題好嗎？

And our next question comes from the line of Mike Ward with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Mike Ward。

I was wondering if you could give a sense maybe of how much more of a tailwind to be left from inflation or exposures that you can see as we sit here today.

我想知道您是否可以了解我們今天坐在這裡時您可以看到通貨膨脹或風險敞口還有多少順風。

Thanks, Mike, for the question. As I noted in the prepared remarks, while we're not immune to the macro economy, of course, there are some real factors that support growth of Marsh McLennan. In the risk side of our business, inflation is one of those areas.

邁克，謝謝你提出這個問題。正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，雖然我們不能免受宏觀經濟的影響，但當然有一些支持 Marsh McLennan 增長的實際因素。在我們業務的風險方面，通貨膨脹是其中之一。

So whether it's wage inflation, core inflation, higher -- it -- of course, inflation leads to higher losses and more discipline in the pricing environment, all of those issues are supportive of growth. It's a client-by-client outcome, though, right? Some of our clients, there are winners and losers in any economy, of course. And some of those distinctions might be more stark in an economy like we're in today.

因此，無論是工資通脹、核心通脹，還是更高——當然，通脹導致更高的損失和定價環境的更多紀律，所有這些問題都支持增長。不過，這是一個客戶一個客戶的結果，對吧？當然，我們的一些客戶在任何經濟體中都有贏家和輸家。在我們今天所處的經濟體中，其中一些區別可能更加明顯。

And so some are operating from a position of strength. And others, of course, will need to be more defensive. So we work through that with them client by client. But broadly speaking, inflation and nominal GDP is more indicative of demand for our revenue and our services than real GDP.

因此，有些公司在強勢地位上運作。當然，其他人將需要更具防禦性。因此，我們逐個客戶與他們一起解決這個問題。但從廣義上講，通貨膨脹和名義 GDP 比實際 GDP 更能說明對我們的收入和服務的需求。

Awesome.

驚人的。

Do you have a follow-up, Mike?

你有後續行動嗎，邁克？

Yes. Actually, maybe on Oliver Wyman and Mercer career. I know you mentioned a possible slowdown in Wyman. But can you talk about the pipeline and whether you're seeing that slowdown or just kind of anticipating businesses reducing their consulting appetite?

是的。實際上，也許是在奧緯諮詢和美世的職業生涯中。我知道你提到 Wyman 可能會放緩。但是你能談談管道嗎？你是否看到這種放緩或者只是一種預期企業減少他們的諮詢胃口？

Sure, Mike. So let me start by just saying that Oliver Wyman is just a really important part of our value proposition for our clients and a critical part of our company. They advise the C-suite on the critical issues of the day, and it really helped us differentiate our value proposition.

當然，邁克。因此，讓我首先說，Oliver Wyman 只是我們對客戶的價值主張中非常重要的一部分，也是我們公司的關鍵部分。他們就當前的關鍵問題向最高管理層提供建議，這確實幫助我們區分了我們的價值主張。

We had an outstanding year of growth in 2022 on top of 21% growth in 2021. And over the midterm, medium term, we expect higher growth out of Oliver Wyman than our other businesses. So having said that, we do expect some moderation of growth. So Nick, maybe I'll ask you to share an outlook with Mike.

在 2021 年增長 21% 的基礎上，我們在 2022 年實現了出色的增長。從中期來看，我們預計 Oliver Wyman 的增長將高於我們的其他業務。所以話雖如此，我們確實預計增長會有所放緩。所以尼克，也許我會請你與邁克分享一下前景。

Yes. Thanks, John. Thank you, Mike. As John just started to do, let me put Oliver Wyman into context. We're very happy with a second consecutive year of double-digit growth. I think it's 15 years since we've achieved that.

是的。謝謝，約翰。謝謝你，邁克。正如 John 剛開始做的那樣，讓我將 Oliver Wyman 放在背景中。我們對連續第二年實現兩位數增長感到非常高興。我認為我們實現這一目標已有 15 年了。

We've added over 1/3 of the business in that time, and we're confident that we gained market share in what is a pretty fragmented market. And that growth was very well balanced. We grew across all our regions, across all of our capability practices and across most of our industries in 2022.

在那段時間裡，我們增加了超過 1/3 的業務，而且我們有信心在這個相當分散的市場中獲得了市場份額。而且這種增長非常平衡。到 2022 年，我們在所有地區、所有能力實踐和大多數行業都實現了增長。

But having said that, this is my seventh call, and it's the first one that I've reported on something below double-digit growth in the quarter. That 8% does reflect 2 things. We're certainly lapping a high growth quarter. But at the same time, we did see a slowing in the pipeline as our major clients -- and we pause and digest after several pretty turbulent years.

但話雖如此，這是我的第七次電話會議，也是我第一次報告本季度增長低於兩位數的電話會議。那 8% 確實反映了兩件事。我們肯定會迎來一個高增長的季度。但與此同時，作為我們的主要客戶，我們確實看到了銷售渠道的放緩——在經歷了數年相當動蕩的歲月之後，我們停下來消化一下。

We remain optimistic in the longer-term revenue plans. There was a pretty heavy surge in the last 2 years, but we'll likely revert closer to our medium-term expectations of mid- to high single-digit underlying growth through the cycle.

我們對長期收入計劃保持樂觀。過去兩年出現了相當大的飆升，但我們可能會更接近我們對整個週期中高個位數基礎增長的中期預期。

Thanks, Nick. Mike, maybe I'll ask Martine as well to comment on career at Mercer. And I would point out, Mercer had its best year of growth since 2008. So we feel absolutely terrific about it. Excellent growth in health, excellent growth in career. But Martine, maybe you could share a little bit more color?

謝謝，尼克。邁克，也許我還會請 Martine 評論一下在美世的職業生涯。我要指出的是，美世度過了自 2008 年以來增長最好的一年。所以我們對此感覺非常好。健康成長極佳，事業成長極佳。但是 Martine，也許你可以分享更多顏色？

Yes. No, thanks, John and Mike as well for the question. Yes, of course, and you're right to say that our career business is the one that has most discretionary projects. So of course, we are looking at all indicators in a cautionary way.

是的。不，謝謝約翰和邁克提出的問題。是的，當然，你說得對，我們的職業業務是擁有最多自主項目的業務。因此，當然，我們正在以謹慎的方式看待所有指標。

But what I want to say here is we've had a tremendous 2 years in career. Q4 was a 12% growth. The whole of 2022 is a 14% growth. The demand here is really related to change in the world of work.

但我想在這裡說的是，我們在職業生涯中度過了輝煌的兩年。第四季度增長了 12%。 2022 年全年增長 14%。這裡的需求確實與工作世界的變化有關。

We've added to that in '22 wage and high inflation. We have the labor shortages issue. So we're looking at rewards strategies, workforce analytics, future of work, skills gap, talent engagement, assessment of skills. It's all on top of -- the top of our clients' agenda.

我們在 22 年的工資和高通脹中增加了這一點。我們有勞動力短缺問題。因此，我們正在研究獎勵策略、勞動力分析、工作的未來、技能差距、人才參與、技能評估。這一切都在我們客戶議程的首位。

So overall, at this point, we've entered 2023 with very solid growth momentum, strong sales, strong pipeline. And of course, we're confident in this year, we are monitoring developments on sales pipeline and client sentiment, given the macroeconomic conditions that are foreseen. But the question remains that as the people agenda stays such an elevated point for our clients that what we're seeing right now is that demand stays strong.

所以總的來說，在這一點上，我們已經進入了 2023 年，增長勢頭非常強勁，銷售強勁，管道強大。當然，我們對今年充滿信心，鑑於可預見的宏觀經濟狀況，我們正在監測銷售渠道和客戶情緒的發展。但問題仍然是，由於人員議程對我們的客戶來說仍然如此重要，以至於我們現在看到的是需求保持強勁。

Terrific. Thank you, Martine. Thanks, Mike. Andrew, can we have our next question, please?

了不起。謝謝你，馬丁。謝謝，邁克。安德魯，我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

Certainly and our next question comes from the line of Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs.

當然，我們的下一個問題來自高盛的羅伯特考克斯。

I think previously, maybe not for a while, but you guys had talked about a 3% to 5% organic growth outlook longer term. Just curious if your view on that has changed at all?

我想以前，也許不會有一段時間，但你們已經談到了 3% 到 5% 的長期有機增長前景。只是想知道您對此的看法是否有任何改變？

Well, as I shared, we expect mid-single digits underlying revenue growth or better for this year. That's the guidance we're sharing. As I noted, Robert, in my prepared remarks, we're in terrific businesses. We're well positioned in those businesses, just have outstanding talent and a culture that makes us an employer of choice as well. So we feel good about our growth prospects for the near term.

好吧，正如我分享的那樣，我們預計今年的潛在收入增長將達到中個位數或更好。這就是我們分享的指南。正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，羅伯特，我們的業務非常好。我們在這些業務中處於有利地位，擁有傑出的人才和文化，這也使我們成為首選雇主。因此，我們對近期的增長前景感到滿意。

Got it. And maybe just a follow-up. Yes, how big of a deal are wage pressures in the business today and into 2023? I think the Consulting segment perhaps is a little bit more susceptible to that. And we saw margins decline year-over-year. So just wondering how big of an impact that is.

知道了。也許只是一個後續行動。是的，從今天到 2023 年，企業的工資壓力有多大？我認為諮詢部門可能更容易受到這種影響。我們看到利潤率同比下降。所以只是想知道影響有多大。

Yes. It's been manageable for us for sure. As I said, we work really, really hard on our culture and becoming an employer of choice in the markets that we operate in. I think we attract outstanding talent because of that culture, because of the strength of the brands.

是的。這對我們來說肯定是可以管理的。正如我所說，我們真的非常努力地打造我們的文化，並成為我們所在市場的首選雇主。我認為我們吸引優秀人才是因為這種文化，因為品牌的實力。

And it really enables talented individuals who want to devote their career in the areas of risk strategy and people to be their best when they work here, and that's how we think about it. As I said earlier, it's a privilege to do the work that we do, trying to tackle the issues of the day.

它確實使那些想要將自己的職業生涯投入到風險策略領域的人才能夠在這里工作時發揮出最佳水平，這就是我們的想法。正如我之前所說，我們有幸從事我們所做的工作，努力解決當今的問題。

We're a collaborative environment. So you do it with some really talented people who are very, very focused on client impact. And our client engagement -- our colleague engagement, excuse me, remains very, very high.

我們是一個協作環境。因此，您可以與一些非常非常關注客戶影響的真正有才華的人一起做。我們的客戶參與度——對不起，我們的同事參與度仍然非常非常高。

So we saw some elevated voluntary turnover in the early part of the year, but that moderated in the second half of the year. I think that elevated turnover was really a bounce back from very abnormally low voluntary turnover.

因此，我們看到今年年初自願離職率有所上升，但在下半年有所放緩。我認為更高的離職率實際上是從異常低的自願離職率中反彈。

But wage pressure has been manageable for us. We're being thoughtful about merit pools and how we allocate those pools. But we feel very, very well positioned from a talent perspective. Andrew, next question, please?

但工資壓力對我們來說是可控的。我們正在考慮績效池以及我們如何分配這些池。但從人才的角度來看，我們感覺非常非常有利。安德魯，下一個問題好嗎？

And our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 Meyer Shields 與 KBW 的系列。

A couple of quick questions. First, John, strategically, when you can anticipate higher fiduciary income, does that translate into more latitude for longer-term investments?

幾個簡單的問題。首先，約翰，從戰略上講，當您可以預期更高的信託收入時，這是否會轉化為長期投資的更大自由度？

We're trying to balance, obviously, the near term and the midterm. The growth in fiduciary income may or may not be correlated to client demand or opportunities that we see. It's obviously connected to other macro factors.

顯然，我們正在努力平衡近期和中期。受託收入的增長可能與我們看到的客戶需求或機會相關，也可能不相關。這顯然與其他宏觀因素有關。

But I think part of the steps -- the steps that we took in the fourth quarter, the actions that we took in the fourth quarter create capacity for us to make investments and to become a stronger business going forward.

但我認為部分步驟 - 我們在第四季度採取的步驟，我們在第四季度採取的行動為我們創造了投資能力並成為未來更強大的企業。

Okay. That's helpful. Second question, when -- we've heard a lot of comments very clearly, accurate, about the difficult reinsurance renewal season. Does that actually impact the expenses that Guy Carpenter incurs? I mean obviously, a stressful period, but I'm wondering about the financial impact.

好的。這很有幫助。第二個問題，什麼時候——我們已經非常清楚、準確地聽到了很多關於艱難的再保險續保季節的評論。這真的會影響 Guy Carpenter 產生的費用嗎？我的意思是很明顯，一段壓力很大的時期，但我想知道財務影響。

It was a stressful period. Our colleagues were tested, and I would say I don't want to mitigate the impact on our insurance company clients. It was a challenging outcome.

那是一段壓力很大的時期。我們的同事接受了測試，我想說我不想減輕對我們保險公司客戶的影響。這是一個具有挑戰性的結果。

Again, we expected a difficult market as well. But no, it doesn't impact our cost base in any meaningful way. And as I said, the overall outlook is supportive of a good growth environment for Guy Carpenter. Andrew, next question, please?

同樣，我們也預料到一個艱難的市場。但不，它不會以任何有意義的方式影響我們的成本基礎。正如我所說，總體前景支持 Guy Carpenter 的良好成長環境。安德魯，下一個問題好嗎？

And our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Andrew Kligerman。

First question is around underlying revenue growth. Marsh up 6%. Guy Carpenter up 5%. Given the strong exposure growth, the strong rate increases, if you netted that out, would the underlying growth be negative?

第一個問題是關於潛在的收入增長。沼澤上漲 6%。 Guy Carpenter 上漲 5%。鑑於強勁的風險敞口增長，強勁的利率增長，如果你將其剔除，潛在增長會是負數嗎？

No. It would not be negative, Andrew, and thank you for your question. It is a very strong year of growth at both Marsh and at Guy Carpenter. I would note Guy Carpenter is a very, very small quarter. And so again, we're quite pleased with the revenue growth.

不，這不會是負面的，安德魯，謝謝你的提問。今年是達信和 Guy Carpenter 增長非常強勁的一年。我會注意到 Guy Carpenter 是一個非常非常小的季度。因此，我們再次對收入增長感到非常滿意。

And as I've said a number of times this morning, Guy Carpenter is very well positioned for good strong growth in 2023. At Marsh, it was an outstanding year, 8% for the year, 6% in the quarter.

正如我今天早上多次說過的那樣，Guy Carpenter 為 2023 年的強勁增長做好了充分準備。在 Marsh，這是出色的一年，全年增長 8%，本季度增長 6%。

As we noted -- and I'll ask Martin to comment on this in a second. Marsh in the U.S. had some headwinds related to the capital markets, right? So -- and Martin mentioned earlier the impact of pricing. A fewer M&A, less M&A activity, less IPO activity, so as Martin pointed out, had an impact on pricing there, but it was more of a volume issue.

正如我們所指出的，我會請 Martin 稍後對此發表評論。達信在美國遇到了一些與資本市場相關的不利因素，對吧？所以 - 馬丁早些時候提到了定價的影響。正如馬丁指出的那樣，併購活動減少，併購活動減少，IPO 活動減少，對那裡的定價產生了影響，但更多的是數量問題。

We expected that entering into the fourth quarter. It's also a headwind for us into the first quarter as well. But we expect a good growth year in 2023. Martin, maybe you can provide a little bit more color and share your thoughts on 2023 and our growth at the end of 2022.

我們預計進入第四季度。這對我們進入第一季度也是不利的。但我們預計 2023 年將是一個良好的增長年。馬丁，也許你可以提供更多顏色並分享你對 2023 年的看法以及我們在 2022 年底的增長。

Yes, of course, delighted to, thank you. As you said, we had a growth of 6% in the quarter. It's on top of 9% in the prior quarter of '21. Strong balance of growth across the portfolio. International in the quarter grew 8%, APAC at 12%, EMEA at 7%. Latin America at 5% -- at 4%, I beg your pardon. You mentioned U.S. and Canada at 5%.

是的，當然，很高興，謝謝。正如您所說，本季度我們增長了 6%。在 21 世紀的前一個季度，它超過了 9%。整個投資組合的強勁增長平衡。本季度國際增長 8%，亞太地區增長 12%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區增長 7%。拉丁美洲為 5% -- 4%，請原諒。你提到美國和加拿大是 5%。

I'd say that the U.S. and Canada was actually impacted by headwinds in our business. So we had tough comps in the prior year from elevated M&A and SPAC activity and capital markets activity in the back half of '21.

我想說美國和加拿大實際上受到了我們業務逆風的影響。因此，在 21 世紀下半年，由於併購和 SPAC 活動以及資本市場活動的增加，我們在前一年的表現很艱難。

We think after that, we would have been posting underlying growth in the region of 8% for the U.S. and Canada. So very strong results there, and we feel bullish that as that normalizes in the first quarter of next year, we're going to see an uptick.

我們認為在那之後，我們會公佈美國和加拿大 8% 左右的基本增長率。那裡的結果非常強勁，我們樂觀地認為，隨著明年第一季度正常化，我們將看到增長。

The full year growth international was 10%, APAC 13%. Latin America 12% which is much better representation of what they're likely to -- it's the smallest part of International, Latin America. So you should look at the full year as a better indicator rather than just a discrete quarter.

全年國際增長率為 10%，亞太地區為 13%。拉丁美洲 12%，這更好地代表了他們可能會做的事情——它是拉丁美洲國際市場中最小的部分。因此，您應該將全年視為一個更好的指標，而不僅僅是一個離散的季度。

EMEA was up 8% and the U.S. and Canada, up 7%. And then when we look at what's driven the growth and what we think are likely to grow in the future, construction growth was double-digit, energy and power dealing with the transition up double percent, [our trade] credit business up double digits.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區上漲 8%，美國和加拿大上漲 7%。然後當我們看看是什麼推動了增長以及我們認為未來可能會增長的是什麼時，建築增長是兩位數，處理轉型的能源和電力增長了兩位數，[我們的貿易]信貸業務增長了兩位數。

Our advisory business, which helps our clients mitigate changes in risk grew double digits throughout the year. So we feel very good about how we're positioned about the geographies that we're in, about our position in the value proposition and feeling good about growth.

我們的諮詢業務幫助我們的客戶減輕風險變化，全年增長了兩位數。因此，我們對我們所處地區的定位、我們在價值主張中的地位以及對增長的感覺非常好。

So Andrew, we're working our way through some headwinds in the capital markets. But again, I feel terrific about the growth in 2022, and we believe we're well positioned in '23 as well. Do you have a follow-up?

所以安德魯，我們正在努力克服資本市場的一些不利因素。但同樣，我對 2022 年的增長感到非常滿意，我們相信我們在 23 年也處於有利地位。你有跟進嗎？

Yes. One quick follow-up. Just curious about the JLT integration costs of $91 million in the quarter, just given that it's been -- I think the deal was 2019. So I was just curious what that was.

是的。一個快速跟進。只是對本季度 9100 萬美元的 JLT 集成成本感到好奇，只是考慮到它已經——我認為這筆交易是在 2019 年。所以我很好奇那是什麼。

It was 2019. Mark, maybe you can share with Andrew.

那是 2019 年。馬克，也許你可以和安德魯分享。

And Andrew, that pretty much was the final step of integration with JLT, and it related to basically the provisions for shutting down and abandoning their headquarters in London as we were able to finally consolidate all of our head count into our location in [Tower Place.] That is an action that was planned at the very early stages of the integration. It just took us that long to [refit Tower Place] to accommodate all the head count.

安德魯，這幾乎是與 JLT 整合的最後一步，它基本上與關閉和放棄他們在倫敦的總部的規定有關，因為我們最終能夠將我們所有的員工人數整合到我們在 [Tower Place] 的位置.] 這是在整合的早期階段就計劃好的行動。我們只花了那麼長時間 [改裝 Tower Place] 以容納所有人數。

Andrew, we are ready for next question?

安德魯，我們準備好回答下一個問題了嗎？

And our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Yaron Kinar 與 Jefferies 的合作。

First question, you talked about the potential for maybe some compensation structure changes just in light of this environment. Given that you've been in this market before, can you maybe give us some ideas or some reflections of how this played out in previous hard markets, how much compensation or commission rate changes in hard markets?

第一個問題，您談到了根據這種環境可能會發生一些薪酬結構變化的可能性。鑑於您之前進入過這個市場，您能否給我們一些想法或一些反思，說明這在以前的硬市場中是如何發揮作用的，硬市場中的薪酬或佣金率有多少變化？

Yaron, our commission levels have been fairly constant for a number of years. As I said, with some of our larger clients at Guy Carpenter, we've had capped commission agreements that have been in place for many, many years.

Yaron，我們的佣金水平多年來一直相當穩定。正如我所說，對於我們在 Guy Carpenter 的一些大客戶，我們已經簽訂了很多很多年的佣金上限協議。

And so we work with those clients to be fairly remunerated for the work that we do over the course of the year. And so we have good healthy relationships with those clients and work our way through them. So I don't think there's really anything more to share than that.

因此，我們與這些客戶合作，為我們在一年中所做的工作獲得公平的報酬。因此，我們與這些客戶建立了良好健康的關係，並通過他們的方式工作。所以我認為沒有比這更多的東西可以分享了。

Okay. And my other question is with regards to the restructuring. So the workforce action that you identified, does that implicate or impact any of the hires that you had back in 2021?

好的。我的另一個問題是關於重組的。那麼，您確定的勞動力行動是否會影響或影響您在 2021 年招聘的任何員工？

No. We feel terrific about the strategic talent that we brought into the organization over the course of the last couple of years. We invested in talent last year as well.

不，我們對在過去幾年中引入組織的戰略人才感到非常滿意。我們去年也投資於人才。

The returns on those investments have been absolutely terrific and driving a meaningful amount of our growth in 2022. And we expect it to drive growth for us in '23 as well.

這些投資的回報絕對是驚人的，並在 2022 年推動了我們的顯著增長。我們預計它也將在 23 年推動我們的增長。

So as I said, the actions that we took were more about aligning our workforce and skill sets with evolving needs. And it also is connected in some part with how we challenge ourselves to operate more efficiently, more simply and bringing our businesses closer together. Andrew, next question, please?

因此，正如我所說，我們採取的行動更多是為了使我們的員工隊伍和技能組合與不斷變化的需求保持一致。在某種程度上，它還與我們如何挑戰自我以更高效、更簡單地運營並使我們的業務更緊密地聯繫在一起。安德魯，下一個問題好嗎？

And our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Brian Meredith。

Two of them are for you. First one, Mark, I'm just curious, the $4 billion of kind of planned capital deployment this year, how does that actually -- how does that relate to kind of what your expectations are on cash flow? Because I think you actually had $4 billion of capital we expected to deploy last year.

其中兩個是給你的。第一個，馬克，我只是很好奇，今年 40 億美元的計劃資本部署，這實際上如何 - 這與您對現金流的預期有何關係？因為我認為你實際上有我們去年預計要部署的 40 億美元資金。

Sure. So Brian, we do plan to deploy about $4 billion of capital. The largest source of that capital deployment will be free cash flow that we expect to generate.

當然。所以布賴恩，我們確實計劃部署約 40 億美元的資金。該資本配置的最大來源將是我們預期產生的自由現金流。

We also enter -- if you saw our balance sheet, we entered the year with a little bit of cash from the debt raise we did late last year. So that will provide some additional capital as well.

我們也進入了 - 如果你看到我們的資產負債表，我們進入了這一年，我們從去年年底的債務籌集中獲得了一點現金。因此，這也將提供一些額外的資金。

But I guess my point is, right, you don't expect free cash flow to be flat year-over-year, do you?

但我想我的意思是，對吧，你不希望自由現金流量同比持平，是嗎？

Well, free cash flow for us has been a great story, as you know, over a long period of time and over time tends to track pretty well with our strong earnings growth. And our outlook is for solid earnings growth, but cash flow can be volatile.

好吧，正如你所知，在很長一段時間內，我們的自由現金流一直是一個偉大的故事，而且隨著時間的推移，我們的盈利增長強勁。我們的前景是穩健的盈利增長，但現金流可能會波動。

So we generally stay away from predicting free cash flow with precision. But as I said, the biggest source of capital underpinning our projected deployment is going to be the free cash flow we generate.

因此，我們通常不會精確預測自由現金流。但正如我所說，支持我們預計部署的最大資金來源將是我們產生的自由現金流。

Great. That's helpful. And then, John, I'm just curious, a lot of big corporations out there are tightening belts right now in preparation for what they see as a challenging 2023. And I appreciate you're looking for still a pretty good strong 2023.

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後，約翰，我只是好奇，現在很多大公司都在勒緊褲腰帶，為他們認為充滿挑戰的 2023 年做準備。我很感激你仍在尋找一個相當強勁的 2023 年。

Maybe you can just remind us, what's the lag effect that you see with your revenues vis-a-vis kind of a slowdown in business activity out there? I always remember there's like some lag effect.

也許你可以提醒我們，相對於商業活動的放緩，你看到的收入滯後效應是什麼？我一直記得有一些滯後效應。

Well, it's hard to talk about lag with any precision. My comments earlier about the broader environment really carry the day. I mean, yes, it's an uncertain environment. It's maybe modestly more positive when you think about the reopening of China and how Europe has at least so far successfully managed energy-related risks and the impact on the economy in Europe.

好吧，很難精確地談論滯後。我之前對更廣泛環境的評論確實很重要。我的意思是，是的，這是一個不確定的環境。當你想到中國的重新開放以及歐洲至少到目前為止如何成功地管理與能源相關的風險以及對歐洲經濟的影響時，它可能會更加積極。

Having said that, there's still meaningful geopolitical risks out there. But for us, again, nominal GDP is more indicative than real GDP, and demand remains strong for us in our businesses.

話雖如此，仍然存在重大的地緣政治風險。但對我們來說，名義 GDP 比實際 GDP 更具指示性，而且我們的業務需求仍然強勁。

So as I said, we expect a bit of a moderation of demand at Oliver Wyman. But broadly speaking, our businesses overall, including strong growth prospects for Guy Carpenter, remain quite healthy.

正如我所說，我們預計 Oliver Wyman 的需求會有所放緩。但從廣義上講，我們的整體業務，包括 Guy Carpenter 強勁的增長前景，仍然相當健康。

And if things get more difficult, we know how to perform in a more challenging environment. We have a playbook, and we're ready to execute on that playbook. We're a resilient business, and so we'll navigate whatever comes in front of us. Andrew?

如果事情變得更加困難，我們知道如何在更具挑戰性的環境中表現。我們有劇本，我們已準備好執行該劇本。我們是一家有彈性的企業，因此我們會應對擺在我們面前的任何事情。安德魯？

And our next question comes from the line of [Ryan, Clinton Research.]

我們的下一個問題來自 [Ryan, Clinton Research]。

First question, just looking at the margins this quarter. Fiduciary investment income was a pretty big contributor it looked like to the margin expansion. And the comp ratio actually looked relatively flat with 4Q '21.

第一個問題，只看本季度的利潤率。信託投資收入似乎對利潤率擴張做出了相當大的貢獻。而且 comp 比率實際上看起來與 21 年第四季度相對持平。

I guess that just surprised me a bit, given there was so much hiring a year ago with not much revenue attached to it. So yes, how should we be thinking about, I guess, the operating leverage or the lack thereof on that comp ratio in the fourth quarter?

我想這讓我有點吃驚，因為一年前招聘了很多人，但收入並不多。所以，是的，我想我們應該如何考慮第四季度的經營槓桿或該補償比率的缺乏？

Thanks, [Ryan,] for the question. As I said, last year, was our 15th consecutive year of margin expansion, and we expect 2023 to be our 16th consecutive year. I was pleased with the margin improvement, particularly in light of the investments that we've made in talent.

謝謝 [瑞安] 提出這個問題。正如我所說，去年是我們利潤率連續擴張的第 15 年，我們預計 2023 年將是我們連續第 16 年。我對利潤率的提高感到滿意，特別是考慮到我們在人才方面的投資。

So there's a modest improvement, slight improvement in the comp and ben ratio. But again, margin is an outcome for us. We're focused on growing earnings, growing the free cash flow on the business.

所以有適度的改善，薪酬和本比率略有改善。但同樣，保證金是我們的結果。我們專注於增加收入，增加業務的自由現金流。

And we're going to invest where we think it makes sense, where we think it can make us stronger as a business and accelerate client impact. But at the same time, what's not going to change here is our focus on continuous improvement and our commitment to excellent financial performance.

我們將在我們認為有意義的地方進行投資，在我們認為可以使我們作為一家企業變得更強大並加速對客戶產生影響的地方進行投資。但與此同時，這裡不會改變的是我們對持續改進的關注以及我們對卓越財務業績的承諾。

Got it. And then, I guess, as a follow-up, John. Obviously, early days in the new seat. Just curious what you've been focusing on or where you're spending your time?

知道了。然後，我想，作為後續行動，約翰。顯然，在新座位的早期。只是好奇你一直在關注什麼或者你把時間花在哪裡了？

Sure. My voice has been in our strategy for nearly 7 years now. As I said in my prepared remarks, we're in the right businesses. We've got market-leading brands. We're well positioned, just outstanding talent. It's a real privilege to get to work with the folks that I get to work with every day.

當然。近 7 年來，我的聲音一直在我們的戰略中。正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們的業務是正確的。我們擁有市場領先的品牌。我們有很好的定位，只有傑出的人才。與我每天一起工作的人一起工作是一種真正的榮幸。

And as I said, our focus on continuous improvement and our commitment to excellent financial performance are not going to change here. Having said that, I see some real opportunities at the intersections of our businesses.

正如我所說，我們對持續改進的關注和我們對卓越財務業績的承諾在這裡不會改變。話雖如此，我在我們的業務交叉點看到了一些真正的機會。

Client needs are dynamic as we talked about, and those needs don't fit neatly into the boxes on our org chart. We're a big company. We need to be organized in certain ways, but those needs don't necessarily fit again against -- not all of them anyway don't fit neatly into how we're organized.

正如我們所說，客戶需求是動態的，而這些需求並不完全符合我們組織結構圖上的方框。我們是一家大公司。我們需要以特定的方式組織起來，但這些需求並不一定再次符合——無論如何，並不是所有的需求都不能完全符合我們的組織方式。

And so we're going to be more deliberate about how we collaborate. We've got a unique collection of capabilities. We're going to go to market together where we think it makes sense. And where it makes sense is where we can accelerate client impact and enable our clients' success. And our colleagues are passionate about client success and the work that they do on behalf of clients.

因此，我們將更加慎重地考慮我們的合作方式。我們擁有獨特的功能集合。我們將一起進入我們認為有意義的市場。在有意義的地方，我們可以加快對客戶的影響並幫助客戶取得成功。我們的同事對客戶的成功以及他們代表客戶所做的工作充滿熱情。

So they're excited about the possibilities. I'm excited about the possibilities. We're also going to work more closely together to drive some efficiencies across our business. So I see a lot of opportunity. Again, I think we're in terrific businesses and a terrific team here, and I'm excited about the days ahead. Thank you, [Ryan.] Andrew?

所以他們對可能性感到興奮。我對各種可能性感到興奮。我們還將更緊密地合作，以提高我們整個業務的效率。所以我看到了很多機會。再說一次，我認為我們的業務和團隊都很棒，我對未來的日子感到興奮。謝謝你，[瑞安]。安德魯？

I wrap it up now?

我現在把它包起來？

I would now like to turn the call back over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan, for any closing remarks.

我現在想將電話轉回 Marsh McLennan 總裁兼首席執行官 John Doyle 的任何結束語。

Thanks, Andrew, and thank you all for joining us on the call this morning. In closing, I want to thank our over 85,000 colleagues for their hard work and dedication in a challenging year. And I also want to thank our clients for their continued confidence in Marsh McLennan. Thank you all very much, and I look forward to speaking with you next quarter.

謝謝安德魯，感謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。最後，我要感謝我們 85,000 多名同事在充滿挑戰的一年中的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我還要感謝我們的客戶對 Marsh McLennan 的持續信任。非常感謝大家，我期待著下個季度與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。