威達信集團 (MMC) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Marsh & McLennan's Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. Second quarter 2023 financial results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at marshmclennan.com.

歡迎參加 Marsh & McLennan 的收益電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。今天上午早些時候發布了 2023 年第二季度財務業績和補充信息。您可以在公司網站 marshmclenan.com 上獲取這些信息。

Please note that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and the variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings including our most recent Form 10-K, all of which are available on the Marsh McLennan website.

請注意，今天發表的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，各種因素可能導致實際結果與此類陳述預期的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素的更詳細討論，請參閱我們本季度的收益發布以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件，包括我們最新的 10-K 表格，所有這些文件均可在 Marsh McLennan 網站上獲取。

During the call today, we may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release. (Operator Instructions)

在今天的電話會議中，我們還可能討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些指標與最接近的公認會計原則指標的調節，請參閱今天的收益報告中的時間表。 （操作員說明）

I'll now turn this over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.

現在我將把這個問題交給 Marsh McLennan 總裁兼首席執行官 John Doyle。

Good morning and thank you for joining us to discuss our second quarter results reported earlier today. I'm John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan. Joining me on the call is Mark McGivney, our CFO; and the CEOs of our businesses: Martin South of Marsh; Dean Klisura of Guy Carpenter; Martine Ferland of Mercer; and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman. Also with us this morning is Sarah DeWitt, Head of Investor Relations.

早上好，感謝您加入我們討論今天早些時候報告的第二季度業績。我是約翰·道爾 (John Doyle)，達信集團 (Marsh McLennan) 總裁兼首席執行官。與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席財務官 Mark McGivney；以及我們企業的首席執行官：Marsh 的 Martin South； Guy Carpenter 的 Dean Klisura； Mercer 的 Martine Ferland；和奧緯諮詢公司的尼克·斯圖德。今天早上與我們在一起的還有投資者關係主管莎拉·德威特 (Sarah DeWitt)。

Marsh McLennan's second quarter results were excellent. We performed well across our businesses and geographies, extended the best run of quarterly underlying revenue growth in over 2 decades and generated double-digit growth in adjusted EPS. Top line momentum continued with 11% underlying revenue growth on top of 10% growth in the second quarter of last year.

Marsh McLennan 第二季度的業績非常出色。我們在各個業務和地區都表現良好，延續了 20 多年來最好的季度基本收入增長趨勢，調整後每股收益實現了兩位數的增長。收入繼續保持增長勢頭，在去年第二季度 10% 的基礎上，基礎收入增長了 11%。

Adjusted operating income grew 17% versus a year ago. Our adjusted operating margin expanded 100 basis points compared to the second quarter of 2022 and adjusted EPS grew 16%. We also raised our quarterly dividend by 20% to $0.71 and completed $300 million of share repurchases during the quarter.

調整後營業收入較去年同期增長 17%。與 2022 年第二季度相比，我們調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 100 個基點，調整後的每股收益增長了 16%。我們還將季度股息提高了 20% 至 0.71 美元，並在本季度完成了 3 億美元的股票回購。

I'm pleased with our performance, especially when viewed in the context of the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. While the U.S. and other major economies have been resilient, there remains significant uncertainty given persistent inflation, continued central bank tightening and geopolitical instability. However, we continue to perform well.

我對我們的表現感到滿意，特別是在當前宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境的背景下。儘管美國和其他主要經濟體一直保持彈性，但鑑於持續的通脹、央行持續緊縮和地緣政治不穩定，仍然存在很大的不確定性。然而，我們仍然表現良好。

As we have discussed in the past, there are factors that are supportive of our growth. We also have a track record of resilience and believe we are well positioned to perform across economic cycles. We manage our business to grow revenues faster than expenses in both good and challenging periods.

正如我們過去所討論的，有一些因素支持我們的增長。我們還擁有良好的韌性記錄，並相信我們有能力在整個經濟周期中表現出色。我們管理我們的業務，使收入增長速度快於支出增長速度，無論是在經濟繁榮時期還是在充滿挑戰的時期。

We made meaningful investments in market-facing talent and improving sales operations and client engagement, which are contributing to our growth, and we continue to deliberately shift our business mix to faster-growth areas. So while the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment remains volatile, we see opportunity to deliver greater value to clients through our leadership and capabilities in risk, strategy and people.

我們對面向市場的人才以及改善銷售運營和客戶參與度進行了有意義的投資，這有助於我們的增長，並且我們將繼續有意識地將我們的業務組合轉向增長更快的領域。因此，儘管宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境仍然不穩定，但我們看到了通過我們在風險、戰略和人員方面的領導力和能力為客戶提供更大價值的機會。

A good example is Marsh McLennan's work to aid Ukraine's economy. Our 4 businesses together are mobilizing our unique expertise to support their future recovery and reconstruction efforts. In June, I attended the Ukrainian Recovery Conference hosted by U.K. Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. We have the honor of hosting a delegation of Ukrainian and British officials at our London offices, where we announced proposals to help with Ukraine's recovery.

馬什·麥克倫南（Marsh McLennan）援助烏克蘭經濟的工作就是一個很好的例子。我們的 4 家企業正在共同利用我們獨特的專業知識來支持他們未來的恢復和重建工作。 6月，我出席英國首相蘇納克主持的烏克蘭復興會議。我們很榮幸在我們的倫敦辦事處接待了一個由烏克蘭和英國官員組成的代表團，我們在那裡宣布了幫助烏克蘭復甦的建議。

Some estimates suggest over $1 trillion may be required for this effort, yet investment capital will not be forthcoming until investors can protect themselves from more risk. To this end, we proposed to Ukraine and the G7 the creation of a war risk insurance pool that would ensure commercial insurance is available for reconstruction projects.

一些估計表明，這項工作可能需要超過 1 萬億美元，但只有在投資者能夠保護自己免受更多風險之前，投資資金才會到位。為此，我們向烏克蘭和七國集團提議建立戰爭風險保險池，確保重建項目獲得商業保險。

We also announced that we will partner with the Ukrainian government and insurers to create a data platform for the assessment of war risks. This project draws on Marsh McLennan's expertise and leverages data and information provided by the Ukrainians. By enabling effective and targeted risk modeling, it represents a critical first step for the industry to offer commercial insurance and unlock capital.

我們還宣布將與烏克蘭政府和保險公司合作創建一個用於評估戰爭風險的數據平台。該項目借鑒了 Marsh McLennan 的專業知識，並利用了烏克蘭人提供的數據和信息。通過實現有效且有針對性的風險建模，它代表了該行業提供商業保險和釋放資本的關鍵的第一步。

Our colleagues at Oliver Wyman also partnered with the Ukrainian government to develop a post-war transformation strategy. This would reposition Ukraine's economy in a way that leverages national strengths to move beyond resilience to opportunity. At Marsh McLennan, we consider it a privilege to support these endeavors.

我們奧緯諮詢的同事還與烏克蘭政府合作制定戰後轉型戰略。這將重新定位烏克蘭的經濟，充分利用國家優勢，超越韌性，抓住機會。在達信集團，我們很榮幸能夠支持這些努力。

Now I'd like to take a moment to provide an update on the strategic initiatives we discussed last quarter. As a reminder, in the first quarter, we appointed new leaders for Marsh McLennan International and U.S. and Canada as well as region and country leaders. These leaders are driving client impact through enhanced collaboration while at the same time maintaining the individual value propositions of the businesses.

現在我想花點時間提供我們上季度討論的戰略舉措的最新情況。提醒一下，在第一季度，我們任命了達信國際、美國和加拿大的新領導人以及地區和國家領導人。這些領導者通過加強協作來提高客戶影響力，同時維護企業的個人價值主張。

We are bringing our collective capabilities where there is opportunity to provide greater value. This allows us to harness the benefits of our scale, data, insights and expertise to meet our clients' challenges and realize possibilities. This approach is already yielding benefits and improving the client and colleague experience.

我們正在將我們的集體能力發揮到有機會提供更大價值的地方。這使我們能夠利用我們的規模、數據、見解和專業知識的優勢來應對客戶的挑戰並實現可能性。這種方法已經產生了效益並改善了客戶和同事的體驗。

At the same time, we are also finding new ways to operate, reduce complexity and organize for impact. The actions we are taking aim to realign our workforce and skill sets with evolving needs, rationalize technology and reduce our real estate footprint. As we said last quarter, we expect roughly $300 million of total savings by 2024 with total cost to achieve these savings of $375 million to $400 million. Our go-to-market collaboration and restructuring actions are an opportunity to drive higher growth, enhance the colleague value proposition and be more efficient and connected.

與此同時，我們也在尋找新的運營方式、降低複雜性和組織影響力。我們正在採取的行動旨在根據不斷變化的需求重新調整我們的勞動力和技能組合、合理化技術並減少我們的房地產足跡。正如我們上季度所說，我們預計到 2024 年可節省約 3 億美元的總成本，實現這些節省的總成本為 3.75 億至 4 億美元。我們的市場合作和重組行動是推動更高增長、增強同事價值主張以及提高效率和聯繫的機會。

Turning to insurance and reinsurance market conditions. Primary insurance rate increases continued with the Marsh Global Insurance Market Index up 3% overall versus 4% in the first quarter. Property rates increased 10%, the same as last quarter. Casualty pricing was up in the low single-digit range. Workers' compensation was down low single digits, and financial and professional liability insurance rates were down high single digits. Cyber insurance pricing stabilized after several years of increases.

轉向保險和再保險市場狀況。主要保險費率繼續上漲，達信全球保險市場指數整體上漲 3%，而第一季度為 4%。房地產價格上漲 10%，與上季度持平。傷亡費用上漲在較低的個位數範圍內。工人賠償金下降了低個位數，財務和職業責任保險費率下降了高個位數。網絡保險定價經過幾年的上漲後趨於穩定。

In reinsurance, challenging market conditions persisted at midyear renewals. Reinsurers were disciplined and rate increases remain significant, although the market showed more interest in deploying capacity than at January 1 given the firm pricing and improved terms.

在再保險領域，充滿挑戰的市場狀況在年中續保時持續存在。再保險公司受到了紀律處分，利率上調幅度仍然很大，儘管考慮到堅定的定價和改善的條款，市場對部署產能的興趣比 1 月 1 日更大。

Global property cat reinsurance, risk-adjusted rates increased about 30% on average with loss impacted clients seeing higher pricing. The impact of rate increases on ceded premiums was mitigated by higher retentions.

全球財產巨災再保險的風險調整費率平均增長約 30%，損失影響客戶看到更高的定價。費率上漲對分出保費的影響因保留金的增加而得到緩解。

On the casualty side, pricing pressure continued across most lines driven by prior year loss development and concerns about social and economic inflation. We continue to help clients manage through these dynamic market conditions.

在傷亡方面，由於上一年的損失發展以及對社會和經濟通脹的擔憂，大多數險種的定價壓力持續存在。我們繼續幫助客戶應對這些動態的市場條件。

Now let me turn to our second quarter financial performance. We generated adjusted EPS of $2.20, which is up 16% from a year ago. On an underlying basis, revenue grew 11%. Underlying revenue grew 13% in RIS and 8% in Consulting. Marsh was up 10%; Guy Carpenter 11%; Mercer 6%; and Oliver Wyman grew 11%. Overall, the second quarter saw adjusted operating income growth of 17% and our adjusted operating margin expanded 100 basis points year-over-year.

現在讓我談談我們第二季度的財務業績。調整後每股收益為 2.20 美元，比去年同期增長 16%。基本收入增長了 11%。 RIS 的基礎收入增長了 13%，諮詢業務的基礎收入增長了 8%。達信股價上漲 10%；蓋伊·卡彭特 11%；美世 6%；奧緯諮詢 (Oliver Wyman) 增長了 11%。總體而言，第二季度調整後營業收入增長 17%，調整後營業利潤率同比擴大 100 個基點。

For the 6 months, consolidated revenue grew 10% on an underlying basis. Adjusted operating income grew 15% and our adjusted operating margin expanded 130 basis points. Adjusted EPS was $4.74, up 13% from a year ago.

過去 6 個月，綜合收入基本增長了 10%。調整後的營業收入增長了 15%，調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 130 個基點。調整後每股收益為 4.74 美元，比去年同期增長 13%。

Turning to our outlook. We are well positioned for a strong year in 2023. In terms of revenue outlook, given our momentum, we expect full year underlying revenue growth to be high single digits. This reflects a continuation of current trends, but as we noted, the macro outlook remains uncertain and can turn out to be different than our assumptions.

轉向我們的展望。我們已做好充分準備，迎接 2023 年的強勁增長。就收入前景而言，考慮到我們的發展勢頭，我們預計全年基本收入增長將達到較高的個位數。這反映了當前趨勢的延續，但正如我們所指出的，宏觀前景仍然不確定，並且可能與我們的假設不同。

As for the bottom line outlook, we continue to expect margin expansion for the full year and strong growth in adjusted EPS. Overall, I'm proud of our second quarter performance, which demonstrates our continued execution on strategic initiatives and momentum across our business despite an uncertain macro environment.

至於盈利前景，我們繼續預計全年利潤率將擴大，調整後每股收益將強勁增長。總體而言，我對我們第二季度的業績感到自豪，這表明儘管宏觀環境不確定，我們仍繼續執行戰略舉措並保持整個業務的勢頭。

I'm grateful to our colleagues for their focus and determination and the value they deliver to our clients, shareholders and communities. With that, let me turn it over to Mark for a more detailed review of our results.

我感謝我們的同事的專注和決心，以及他們為我們的客戶、股東和社區帶來的價值。接下來，讓我把它交給馬克，讓他對我們的結果進行更詳細的審查。

Thank you, John, and good morning. Our second quarter results were outstanding with continued momentum in underlying growth, mid-teens adjusted EPS growth and solid margin expansion. Our consolidated revenue increased 9% to $5.9 billion with underlying growth of 11%. Operating income was $1.5 billion and adjusted operating income was also $1.5 billion, up 17%.

謝謝你，約翰，早上好。我們第二季度的業績表現出色，基本增長勢頭持續強勁，調整後每股收益增長達到中位數，利潤率穩健擴張。我們的綜合收入增長了 9%，達到 59 億美元，基本增長率為 11%。營業收入為 15 億美元，調整後的營業收入也為 15 億美元，增長 17%。

Our adjusted operating margin increased 100 basis points to 27.7%, a good result given the headwinds from the talent investments we made in 2022, the timing of our annual raises and a continued rebound in expenses such as T&E that we mentioned last quarter.

調整後的營業利潤率增長了 100 個基點，達到 27.7%，考慮到我們在 2022 年進行的人才投資、年度加薪的時間以及我們上季度提到的差旅費等費用的持續反彈，這是一個不錯的結果。

GAAP EPS was $2.07 and adjusted EPS was $2.20, up 16% over last year. For the first 6 months of 2023, underlying revenue growth was 10%. Our adjusted operating income grew 15% to $3.3 billion. Our adjusted operating margin increased 130 basis points and our adjusted EPS increased 13% to $4.74.

GAAP 每股收益為 2.07 美元，調整後每股收益為 2.20 美元，比去年增長 16%。 2023 年前 6 個月，基本收入增長率為 10%。調整後的營業收入增長了 15%，達到 33 億美元。調整後的營業利潤率增加了 130 個基點，調整後的每股收益增加了 13%，達到 4.74 美元。

Looking at Risk & Insurance Services. Second quarter revenue was $3.7 billion, up 12% compared with a year ago or 13% on an underlying basis. This result marks the ninth consecutive quarter of 8% or higher underlying growth in RIS and continues the best stretch of growth in nearly 2 decades.

著眼於風險和保險服務。第二季度收入為 37 億美元，比去年同期增長 12%，基本增長 13%。這一結果標誌著 RIS 連續第九個季度實現 8% 或更高的基本增長，並延續了近 20 年來的最佳增長勢頭。

Operating income increased 20% to $1.2 billion. Adjusted operating income increased 18% to $1.2 billion, and our adjusted operating margin expanded 140 basis points to 34.2%.

營業收入增長 20%，達到 12 億美元。調整後營業收入增長 18%，達到 12 億美元，調整後營業利潤率擴大 140 個基點，達到 34.2%。

For the first 6 months of the year, revenue in RIS was $7.6 billion with underlying growth of 12%. Adjusted operating income increased 17% to $2.6 billion and the margin increased 170 basis points to 36.4%.

今年前 6 個月，RIS 的收入為 76 億美元，基本增長率為 12%。調整後營業收入增長 17%，達到 26 億美元，利潤率增長 170 個基點，達到 36.4%。

At Marsh, revenue in the quarter was $3 billion, up 9% from a year ago or 10% on an underlying basis. This comes on top of 9% growth in the second quarter of last year. Growth in the second quarter reflected strong new business and excellent retention.

達信集團本季度收入為 30 億美元，比去年同期增長 9%，基本增長 10%。去年第二季度增長 9%。第二季度的增長反映出強勁的新業務和出色的保留率。

In U.S. and Canada, underlying growth was 9% for the quarter. In International, underlying growth was 10% and comes on top of 9% in the second quarter of 2022. Latin America was up 17%, EMEA was up 11% and Asia Pacific grew 6%.

在美國和加拿大，本季度基本增長率為 9%。國際市場的基本增長率為 10%，2022 年第二季度的增長率為 9%。拉丁美洲增長 17%，歐洲、中東和非洲增長 11%，亞太地區增長 6%。

For the first 6 months of the year, Marsh's revenue was $5.8 billion with underlying growth of 9%. U.S. and Canada grew 8% and International was up 10%. Guy Carpenter's revenue was $576 million in the quarter, up 10% or 11% on an underlying basis, driven by strong growth across all regions in Global Specialty. For the first 6 months of the year, Guy Carpenter generated $1.6 billion of revenue and 10% underlying growth.

今年前 6 個月，達信的收入為 58 億美元，基本增長率為 9%。美國和加拿大增長了 8%，國際增長了 10%。 Guy Carpenter 本季度的收入為 5.76 億美元，在全球專業所有地區強勁增長的推動下，基本增長了 10% 或 11%。今年前 6 個月，Guy Carpenter 創造了 16 億美元的收入，基本增長率為 10%。

In the Consulting segment, second quarter revenue was $2.2 billion, up 4% from a year ago or 8% on an underlying basis. Consulting operating income was $388 million. Adjusted operating income increased 9% to $403 million. The adjusted operating margin was 19.2% compared to 19.3% in the second quarter of last year.

在諮詢領域，第二季度收入為 22 億美元，比去年同期增長 4%，基本增長 8%。諮詢營業收入為 3.88 億美元。調整後營業收入增長 9%，達到 4.03 億美元。調整後營業利潤率為 19.2%，而去年第二季度為 19.3%。

For the first 6 months of 2023, Consulting revenue was $4.2 billion, representing underlying growth of 6% and adjusted operating income increased 5% to $809 million.

2023 年前 6 個月，諮詢收入為 42 億美元，基本增長 6%，調整後營業收入增長 5%，達到 8.09 億美元。

Mercer's revenue was $1.4 billion in the quarter, up 6% on an underlying basis, representing the ninth consecutive quarter of 5% or higher underlying growth in Mercer. Wealth grew 3% driven by continued strength in defined benefits. Investment management also delivered modest growth.

美世本季度的收入為 14 億美元，基本增長 6%，這是美世連續第九個季度實現 5% 或更高的基本增長。在固定收益持續強勁的推動下，財富增長了 3%。投資管理也實現了小幅增長。

Our assets under management were $393 billion at the end of the second quarter, up 11% sequentially and 14% compared to the second quarter of last year. Growth was driven by a modest rebound in capital markets, positive net flows and our transaction with Westpac. Health underlying growth was 10% and reflected strength in all segments and regions.

截至第二季度末，我們管理的資產規模為 3930 億美元，比上一季度增長 11%，比去年第二季度增長 14%。增長是由資本市場的溫和反彈、正淨流量以及我們與西太平洋銀行的交易推動的。健康基礎增長率為 10%，反映了所有細分市場和地區的實力。

Career revenue increased 6% on top of 17% growth in the second quarter of last year. We continue to see demand for rewards, talent strategy and workforce transformation advice and solutions. For the first 6 months of the year, revenue at Mercer was $2.7 billion with 7% underlying growth.

職業收入在去年第二季度增長 17% 的基礎上增長了 6%。我們繼續看到對獎勵、人才戰略和勞動力轉型建議和解決方案的需求。今年前 6 個月，美世的收入為 27 億美元，基本增長率為 7%。

Oliver Wyman's revenue in the quarter was $798 million, an increase of 11% on an underlying basis and reflected continued strength in the Middle East and Europe and a rebound in the Americas. For the first 6 months of the year, revenue at Oliver Wyman was $1.5 billion, an increase of 6% on an underlying basis.

奧緯諮詢本季度收入為 7.98 億美元，基本增長 11%，反映出中東和歐洲的持續強勁以及美洲的反彈。今年前 6 個月，奧緯諮詢的收入為 15 億美元，基本增長了 6%。

Foreign exchange was a $0.02 headwind in the second quarter. Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect FX to be a $0.01 headwind in the third quarter and a $0.01 benefit in the fourth quarter.

第二季度外匯匯率出現 0.02 美元的逆風。假設匯率保持在當前水平，我們預計第三季度外匯將帶來 0.01 美元的阻力，第四季度將帶來 0.01 美元的收益。

We reported $65 million of total restructuring costs in the quarter, approximately $50 million of which relates to the program we announced in the fourth quarter. These charges include costs related to severance, lease exits and streamlining our technology environment.

我們報告本季度的重組總成本為 6500 萬美元，其中約 5000 萬美元與我們在第四季度宣布的計劃有關。這些費用包括與遣散費、租約退出和簡化我們的技術環境相關的費用。

We continue to expect total charges under this program to be $375 million to $400 million. The [date even] incurred approximately $300 million of charges and currently expect to incur most of the remaining costs in 2023. We still expect to achieve total savings of roughly $300 million by 2024 and now expect to realize approximately $200 million in 2023.

我們仍然預計該計劃的總費用為 3.75 億至 4 億美元。 [日期甚至]產生了約 3 億美元的費用，目前預計將在 2023 年產生大部分剩餘成本。我們仍預計到 2024 年將實現約 3 億美元的總節省，現在預計在 2023 年將實現約 2 億美元。

Our other net benefit credit was $60 million in the quarter. For the full year 2023, we expect our other net benefit credit will be about $240 million. Investment income was $3 million in the second quarter on a GAAP basis and $2 million on an adjusted basis. Interest expense in the second quarter was $146 million, up from $114 million in the second quarter of 2022. This reflects an increase in long-term debt and higher interest rates on short-term borrowings, which we use for efficient working capital management.

本季度我們的其他淨收益信貸為 6000 萬美元。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計其他淨收益信貸將約為 2.4 億美元。按 GAAP 計算，第二季度投資收入為 300 萬美元，按調整後投資收入為 200 萬美元。第二季度的利息支出為 1.46 億美元，高於 2022 年第二季度的 1.14 億美元。這反映了長期債務的增加和短期借款利率的上升，我們將其用於高效的營運資金管理。

Based on our current forecast, we expect approximately $142 million of interest expense in the third quarter and approximately $567 million for the full year. Our effective adjusted tax rate in the second quarter was 24.2% compared with 23.7% in the second quarter of last year. Our tax rate in both periods benefited from favorable discrete items. The largest discrete item this quarter was the accounting for share-based compensation. Excluding discrete items, our effective adjusted tax rate was approximately 25.5%.

根據我們目前的預測，我們預計第三季度的利息支出約為 1.42 億美元，全年的利息支出約為 5.67 億美元。我們第二季度的有效調整稅率為24.2%，而去年第二季度為23.7%。我們在這兩個時期的稅率都受益於有利的離散項目。本季度最大的離散項目是股權激勵的會計處理。不包括離散項目，我們的有效調整稅率約為 25.5%。

When we give forward guidance around our tax rate, we do not project discrete items, which can be positive or negative. Based on the current environment, it is reasonable to assume a tax rate between 25% and 26% for 2023.

當我們就稅率提供前瞻性指引時，我們不會預測離散項目，這些項目可能是正數，也可能是負數。根據當前環境，假設2023年稅率在25%至26%之間是合理的。

Turning to capital management and our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with total debt of $12.6 billion. Our next scheduled debt maturity is October 2023, when $250 million of senior notes mature. We continue to expect to deploy approximately $4 billion of capital in 2023 across dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases. The ultimate level of share repurchase will depend on how the M&A pipeline develops.

轉向資本管理和我們的資產負債表。本季度結束時，我們的債務總額為 126 億美元。我們的下一個預定債務到期日是 2023 年 10 月，屆時 2.5 億美元的優先票據到期。我們仍然預計 2023 年將部署約 40 億美元的資本，用於股息、收購和股票回購。股票回購的最終水平將取決於併購管道的發展情況。

Last week, we raised our quarterly dividend by 20%, marking our 14th consecutive year of dividend growth. This increase, the largest in 25 years, reflects our strong earnings growth over the past couple of years, confidence in our outlook.

上週，我們將季度股息提高了 20%，標誌著我們的股息連續第 14 年增長。這一增幅是 25 年來最大的，反映了我們過去幾年盈利的強勁增長以及對前景的信心。

Our cash position at the end of the second quarter was $1.2 billion. Uses of cash in the quarter totaled $1 billion and included $295 million for dividends, $421 million for acquisitions and $300 million for share repurchases. For the first 6 months, uses of cash totaled $1.9 billion and included $591 million for dividends, $701 million for acquisitions and $600 million for share repurchases.

第二季度末我們的現金頭寸為 12 億美元。本季度現金使用總額為 10 億美元，其中 2.95 億美元用於股息，4.21 億美元用於收購，3 億美元用於股票回購。前 6 個月，現金使用總額為 19 億美元，其中包括 5.91 億美元用於股息、7.01 億美元用於收購以及 6 億美元用於股票回購。

Given our strong results in the first half, we now expect high single-digit underlying revenue growth for the full year. We continue to expect margin expansion for the full year and strong growth in adjusted EPS. This guidance is based on our outlook today, but as John mentioned, there continues to be uncertainty in the environment looking forward. So outcomes could be different than our current assumptions. Overall, our excellent start leaves us well positioned for another great year in 2023. And with that, I'm happy to turn it back to John.

鑑於我們上半年的強勁業績，我們現在預計全年基本收入將實現高個位數增長。我們繼續預計全年利潤率將擴大，調整後每股收益將強勁增長。該指引基於我們今天的展望，但正如約翰提到的，未來環境仍然存在不確定性。因此結果可能與我們當前的假設不同。總體而言，我們的出色開局讓我們為 2023 年又一個偉大的一年做好了準備。因此，我很高興將其轉回給約翰。

Thank you, Mark. Operator, we're ready to begin Q&A.

謝謝你，馬克。接線員，我們準備開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自愛麗絲·格林斯潘與富國銀行的線路。

My first question, you guys updated your organic growth guidance for the full year to high single digits. You guys started off the year pretty strong at 10% organic growth through the first 6 months. So trying to get a sense, as you think about the back half, what businesses might you expect to see some kind of moderation in right to get the high single digits for the full year? And then embedded within that guide, what are you assuming for fiduciary investment income in the back half of the year?

我的第一個問題，你們將全年的有機增長指導更新為高個位數。你們今年開局相當強勁，前 6 個月實現了 10% 的有機增長。因此，當你思考下半年時，試著了解一下，哪些企業可能會出現某種程度的放緩，從而獲得全年的高個位數增長？然後，在該指南中，您對下半年的信託投資收入有何假設？

Elyse, thanks for the question. Yes, we're -- as I said, I'm quite pleased with the growth year-to-date. And the macro environment, although volatile, remains supportive of good strong growth, inflation, pricing, tight labor markets, our tailwinds. But as I pointed out in my prepared remarks, we've been shifting our mix of business to better growth markets. We've been investing in talent, sales operations, client engagement.

伊麗絲，謝謝你的提問。是的，正如我所說，我對今年迄今為止的增長感到非常滿意。宏觀環境雖然不穩定，但仍然支持良好的強勁增長、通脹、定價、緊張的勞動力市場以及我們的順風車。但正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，我們一直在將業務組合轉向更好的增長市場。我們一直在人才、銷售運營和客戶參與方面進行投資。

We've sold some non-core businesses and recently announced the sale of a non-core business. So we've been working very hard at the growth profile of the company. And our outlook remains quite positive. So we upped our guidance to high single digits. It's again a terrific start to the year. I feel like we're well positioned. I think our team is executing very well in the marketplace. And in spite of the volatile macro environment, I think we'll have a good second half of growth as well.

我們已經出售了一些非核心業務，最近還宣佈出售一項非核心業務。因此，我們一直在努力促進公司的發展。我們的前景仍然相當樂觀。因此，我們將指導值上調至高個位數。這又是今年一個美好的開始。我覺得我們的定位很好。我認為我們的團隊在市場上表現得非常好。儘管宏觀環境不穩定，但我認為下半年我們也將實現良好的增長。

We're not going to give specific guidance on fiduciary income, but you saw what it looked like in the second quarter, obviously, meaningful growth. And we expect that to likely continue in the second half.

我們不會就信託收入提供具體指導，但您看到了第二季度的情況，顯然是有意義的增長。我們預計這種情況可能會在下半年繼續下去。

And then my second question is on margin. You guys had pointed, right, that the Q2 would see low improvement than the other quarters of the year. Does that still stand? And would you expect margin improvement to pick up in the Q3 and the Q4? And with the higher expense savings, now $200 million this year, do the higher savings in '23, do those all come in the back half? Or was that spread throughout the year?

然後我的第二個問題是關於保證金的。你們曾指出，對，第二季度的進步將比今年其他季度的進步小。這還成立嗎？您預計第三季度和第四季度的利潤率會有所改善嗎？由於開支節省較多，今年已節省 2 億美元，那麼 23 年的開支節省是否較多，這些都在後半部分嗎？還是全年都存在這樣的情況？

Yes. I'll ask Mark to talk about the restructuring program. But I was very pleased with the margin improvement in the quarter and year-to-date, 100 bps in the second quarter, 130 bps year-to-date. And just a reminder for everyone, margin is an outcome for us. It's not the primary objective, but we do expect to grow revenue more than expense over time. And we're constantly trying to balance with delivering today and investing for the future.

是的。我會請馬克談談重組計劃。但我對本季度和年初至今的利潤率改善感到非常滿意，第二季度提高了 100 個基點，年初至今提高了 130 個基點。只是提醒大家，利潤對我們來說是一個結果。這不是主要目標，但我們確實預計隨著時間的推移，收入的增長將超過支出。我們不斷努力在今天的交付和未來的投資之間取得平衡。

I think we're getting that balance right. Our growth in both top line and earnings shows that. We did guide to less improvement in the second quarter. Mark talked about in his prepared remarks some of the drivers behind that. But again, I'm quite pleased with where we are. And we expect solid margin expansion again for the 16th year.

我認為我們正在取得正確的平衡。我們的營收和盈利增長表明了這一點。我們確實指出第二季度的改善較少。馬克在他準備好的講話中談到了這背後的一些推動因素。但同樣，我對我們現在的處境感到非常滿意。我們預計利潤率將連續第 16 年實現穩健增長。

And Mark, maybe you can talk about the restructuring program.

馬克，也許你可以談談重組計劃。

Elyse, you see that we did take up the outlook for this year to $200 million but left the overall at $300 million. It just reflects the fact that we're executing well and we've just gotten added a little bit quicker. And as we said last quarter, it wouldn't be a bad assumption to just assume the savings comes in ratably across the year. And I would say the same thing. It's just that we've gotten at the savings a little bit quicker. So I would just assume a ratable spreading over the course of the year as opposed to all the increase coming in the back half.

Elyse，你看，我們確實將今年的前景確定為 2 億美元，但總體仍保持在 3 億美元。它只是反映了這樣一個事實：我們執行得很好，而且我們的添加速度更快了一點。正如我們上季度所說，假設全年節省的費用是可觀的，這並不是一個糟糕的假設。我也會說同樣的話。只是我們節省的速度更快一些。因此，我只假設全年的可估價分佈，而不是下半年的所有增長。

And we do have a bit of better second half comps from the expense -- on the expense line. So thank you, Elyse.

在費用方面，我們確實有一些更好的下半年補償。所以謝謝你，愛麗絲。

And our next question comes from the line of Jim Bhullar with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jim Bhullar。

First, just a question on revenues in the RIS business. You've grown at a pretty fast rate the last several quarters and I think generally better than some of your larger peers and part of that might have been just the benefit from the hiring activity that you've done over the past couple of years. Is the tailwind from that fully reflected in your results? And has it fully ramped up? Or is there sort of more to go there?

首先，我想問一個關於 RIS 業務收入的問題。在過去的幾個季度裡，你們的增長速度相當快，我認為總體上比一些規模較大的同行要好，部分原因可能是你們過去幾年所做的招聘活動帶來的好處。由此帶來的有利影響是否充分反映在您的結果中？它已經完全提升了嗎？或者還有更多的地方可以去那裡嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Jimmy. As I said, quite pleased with our growth. To pick up one of your words, just a benefit from some hiring. As I noted, we've been working quite hard at shifting the mix of business, bringing in talent, improving our sales operations, including investing in client engagement. We made terrific inorganic investments as well. And so it's much more than some of the lateral hiring that's in the market.

是的。謝謝，吉米。正如我所說，對我們的成長感到非常滿意。借用你的話來說，只是一些招聘的好處。正如我所指出的，我們一直在努力改變業務結構、引進人才、改善我們的銷售業務，包括投資於客戶參與度。我們也進行了出色的無機投資。因此，這比市場上的一些橫向招聘要多得多。

Having said that, we are quite pleased with the hiring we did and we've gotten good returns from those investments. And as I pointed out in the past, not just -- we've not just been pleased with the financial outcome. Culturally, we are very thoughtful about who we brought into the organization. And they're not only helping us grow, but they're making us better as well. So we're quite pleased with those investments.

話雖如此，我們對我們所做的招聘感到非常滿意，並且我們從這些投資中獲得了良好的回報。正如我過去指出的，我們不僅對財務結果感到滿意。從文化角度來說，我們對引進的人才深思熟慮。他們不僅幫助我們成長，而且讓我們變得更好。所以我們對這些投資非常滿意。

And then just you mentioned -- sorry, go ahead.

然後你剛才提到——抱歉，請繼續。

No, I'm sorry. Do you have a follow-up?

不，我很抱歉。你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. I was just going to say, you mentioned macro and geopolitical a bunch of times. And geopolitical, obviously, is understandable. Macro from the outside end, it seems like most of the factors are tailwinds more than they're headwinds. The equity market is strong, inflation is high, GDP growth has held in. So maybe you could just elaborate a little bit on what is it on the macro side that you see as a negative.

是的。我只是想說，你多次提到宏觀和地緣政治。顯然，地緣政治是可以理解的。從外部宏觀來看，似乎大多數因素都是順風而不是逆風。股市強勁，通脹高企，GDP 增長保持不變。因此，也許您可以詳細說明一下您認為宏觀方面的負面因素。

And specifically on inflation, if it stays elevated, is that a -- obviously, it's a positive on your growth, but is it a positive on your earnings as well overall? Or is the benefit offset by just higher expenses in your own business?

特別是在通貨膨脹方面，如果它保持在高位，顯然，這對您的增長有積極的影響，但它對您的整體收入也有積極的影響嗎？或者收益是否會被您自己業務中更高的費用所抵消？

Yes. It's a good question. I was trying to thread the needle a bit, right? I mean, again, the economy has been quite resilient but inflation remains persistent. You're obviously beginning to see it come down here in the United States, but not at the level that the Central Bank seems to be targeting. With their mission to reduce inflation, that's going to have an impact on not just the market here but in other markets.

是的。這是一個好問題。我試著穿針引線，對吧？我的意思是，經濟一直相當有彈性，但通脹仍然持續存在。顯然，你已經開始看到它在美國出現下降，但還沒有達到央行所設定的目標水平。他們的使命是降低通貨膨脹，這不僅會影響這裡的市場，還會影響其他市場。

And so I think there is still a meaningful risk of recession. And in fact, where we do have exposure in other parts of the world, we have economies in recession currently. So -- but I think -- you had it right. I think nominal GDP is a better indicator of demand for us rather than real GDP. And inflation overall, we do think is beneficial to the company. We're not again immune to some of the challenges that we confront from an inflationary environment in our expenses, but overall, it's a bit of a benefit.

因此，我認為經濟衰退的風險仍然存在。事實上，在我們確實在世界其他地區開展業務的地方，我們目前的經濟正處於衰退之中。所以——但我認為——你說得對。我認為名義GDP比實際GDP更能反映我們的需求。總體而言，我們確實認為通脹對公司有利。我們無法再次免受通脹環境中支出所面臨的一些挑戰，但總的來說，這是一個好處。

And I would say, while equity markets, you pointed out equity markets have improved year-over-year, we've had some headwinds in our investment business from a growth perspective, although we're pleased with what's an improving growth profile year-to-date in Mercer investments.

我想說的是，雖然股票市場，你指出股票市場同比有所改善，但從增長的角度來看，我們的投資業務遇到了一些阻力，儘管我們對美世投資今年迄今的增長狀況改善感到滿意。

And our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Michael Zaremski。

First question, maybe I'll try to ask the Jimmy's question differently. So in the Risk segment specifically, organic growth much stronger than consensus expectations, which is great. Any way you can offer any thoughts on whether a material portion of that kind of excess growth was market share taking versus just the entire maybe overall market conditions for the entire industry were stronger than maybe some expected?

第一個問題，也許我會嘗試以不同的方式問吉米的問題。因此，特別是在風險領域，有機增長遠強於共識預期，這很好。您是否可以就這種超額增長的重要部分是否是市場份額的佔據提供任何想法，而整個行業的整體市場狀況是否比某些人預期的要強？

It's a mix of impacts, of course. So it's difficult to say with real precision, Mike. But you -- again, you've started to see inflation come down here in the United States. You saw -- and in many markets, you're seeing GDP growth slow. P&C pricing moderated a bit in the quarter as well. Tight labor markets, though, remain a positive factor.

當然，這是多種影響的結合。所以很難準確地說，邁克。但你——再次，你已經開始看到美國的通貨膨脹率下降。你看到，在許多市場，你看到 GDP 增長緩慢。財險和意外險定價在本季度也略有放緩。不過，勞動力市場緊張仍然是一個積極因素。

And overall, at least compared to the 2010 to 2020 decade, it's certainly -- we have more tailwinds than headwinds. But again, we've been working quite aggressively to shift our mix and to improve the growth profile of the company and not just be a passive index, candidly, on GDP or for that matter, P&C pricing. So again, we're pleased.

總體而言，至少與 2010 年至 2020 年這十年相比，我們的順風勢肯定多於逆風風。但同樣，我們一直在非常積極地努力改變我們的組合併改善公司的增長狀況，而不僅僅是坦率地成為 GDP 或財產和意外傷害定價的被動指數。再次，我們很高興。

I forgot to mention when Jimmy asked the question too, we -- I talked about the economy a bit, but the geopolitical environment remains a risk as well, right? So again, just trying to thread the needle between what's been obviously a terrific first half of the year and what we think is a terrific outlook for revenue growth in the second half, but there's macro risk as well.

我忘了提及，當吉米也問這個問題時，我們——我談到了一些經濟，但地緣政治環境仍然是一個風險，對嗎？再說一次，我只是試圖將上半年明顯出色的業績與我們認為下半年收入增長的出色前景聯繫起來，但也存在宏觀風險。

Okay. That's helpful. My follow-up is on, if you look at cash flow from operations net of our CapEx, if I'm doing the math right, it looks like it's growing at a pretty big clip. Do you expect free cash flow at this point to grow faster than earnings? And any comments, if that's the case, your cash flow conversion will take a step up this year?

好的。這很有幫助。我的後續行動是，如果你看看扣除資本支出後的運營現金流，如果我計算正確的話，它看起來正在以相當大的速度增長。您預計此時自由現金流的增長速度是否快於收益的增長速度？大家有什麼意見，如果是這樣的話，今年你們的現金流轉化會有所提高嗎？

It can be a bit lumpier than earnings growth, as we pointed out in the past and have demonstrated in the past. But maybe I'll ask Mark to talk about the outlook for free cash flow growth.

正如我們過去指出並證明的那樣，它可能比盈利增長更加不穩定。但也許我會請馬克談談自由現金流增長的前景。

Yes. Thanks, Mike. I -- we've -- as I consistently say, we really try not to emphasize focusing too much on free cash flow growth in any quarter or even a year. It can be really volatile. Yes, as you point out in the second quarter, free cash flow was up quite nicely but there is -- you have to be careful, especially early in the year for us because it's a bit of a low-base issue. Our cash flows tend to be lower early in the year, as you know, than later in the year.

是的。謝謝，邁克。我——我們——正如我一直說的那樣，我們真的盡量不強調過多關注任何季度甚至一年的自由現金流增長。它可能真的很不穩定。是的，正如您在第二季度指出的那樣，自由現金流量增長得相當不錯，但您必須小心，尤其是在今年年初，因為這有點低基數問題。如您所知，我們的現金流量在年初往往低於年底。

But look, we've had a terrific run over a long period of time of double-digit free cash flow growth that has tracked pretty closely to our run of double-digit earnings growth over the last decade. And as we've talked about, we're confident in our outlook for continued strong earnings growth and what we would expect that our free cash flow growth in the future would track that as well.

但你看，我們在很長一段時間內實現了兩位數的自由現金流增長，這與我們過去十年中兩位數的盈利增長非常接近。正如我們所討論的，我們對持續強勁的盈利增長前景充滿信心，並且我們預計未來的自由現金流增長也將跟踪這一增長。

And our next question comes from the line of Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的羅伯特·考克斯。

Just thinking about the Marsh business and I realize growth has been strong both domestically and internationally. But if you look at those -- domestically and internationally, if you look at those 2 areas over the next, say, the next year or the next 5 years, which are you most excited about?

只要想想達信的業務，我就意識到國內和國際的增長都很強勁。但如果你看看這些——國內和國際，如果你看看未來的這兩個領域，比如明年或未來五年，你對哪個領域最興奮？

Well, we're not going to give revenue guidance past what we've given today past this year. But as I said, we're performing well. We're well positioned. I think we have the best talent in the market. And I do believe we are capturing share. But maybe I'll ask Martin to talk a little bit about the growth so far this year and what you see for the rest of the year, Martin.

好吧，我們不會提供超出今年今天所給出的收入指引。但正如我所說，我們表現良好。我們處於有利位置。我認為我們擁有市場上最優秀的人才。我確實相信我們正在贏得份額。但也許我會請馬丁談談今年迄今為止的增長以及你在今年剩餘時間裡看到的情況，馬丁。

Thanks, John. As you said, we had a great strong organic growth of 10% in the second quarter, which is on top of 9%, which we posted in the second quarter of '22 and better the full year growth of 8%. As you said, great balance. International was 10%; Latin America is 17%; EMEA 11%; APAC 6%; U.S. and Canada 9%.

謝謝，約翰。正如您所說，我們在第二季度實現了 10% 的強勁有機增長，高於我們在 2022 年第二季度公佈的 9%，全年增長 8%。正如你所說，很好的平衡。國際為10%；拉丁美洲為17%；歐洲、中東和非洲 11%；亞太地區 6%；美國和加拿大為 9%。

I'd say the growth has been -- it's a really nice balance across all the geographies. Specialties growth was strong; credit specialties, construction, aviation, energy and power, strong; our advisory business, part of the risk advisory of the future, very strong double-digit growth; (inaudible) was strong; renewal growth was strong. Look, it's just a nice mix of business across the board, both new business and renewal.

我想說的是，增長是——所有地區之間實現了非常好的平衡。專業增長強勁；信用專業，建築、航空、能源電力，實力較強；我們的諮詢業務是未來風險諮詢的一部分，將實現非常強勁的兩位數增長； （聽不清）很強；續訂增長強勁。看，這是一個全面的業務組合，包括新業務和更新業務。

Yes. Thanks, Martin. We're -- again, the consistency of growth has been just outstanding in addition to the total. Do you have a follow-up, Rob?

是的。謝謝，馬丁。我們再次強調，除了總量之外，增長的一致性也非常出色。羅布，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. And so maybe switching to Oliver Wyman. Growth came in well above the levels you guys had guided from last quarter. And there's been a number of positive economic data points as of late. Do you see the pipeline reflecting that? And is it looking like growth in the back half?

是的。所以也許會轉向奧緯諮詢。增長遠高於你們上季度指導的水平。最近出現了許多積極的經濟數據。您看到管道反映了這一點嗎？後半部分看起來有增長嗎？

Yes. We're, thanks, Rob, very pleased with the growth at Oliver Wyman. I'll ask Nick to talk a bit more about it in detail. Nick?

是的。謝謝羅布，我們對奧緯諮詢的發展感到非常滿意。我會請尼克詳細討論一下。缺口？

Yes. Thank you, Robert. We still see a relatively wide range of possible future outcomes. When we gave guidance at the end of the first quarter, that was based on what we saw in our sales pipeline, which was ticking up nicely but not aggressively.

是的。謝謝你，羅伯特。我們仍然看到相對廣泛的未來可能結果。當我們在第一季度末給出指導時，這是基於我們在銷售渠道中看到的情況，銷售渠道增長良好，但並不激進。

In the second quarter, we saw quite strong growth in sales. It's, I would say, a reflection on places where Oliver Wyman is being selected to support our clients' really transformative moment, led by our public sector practice, led by our banking practice, transportation and services and our telco teams.

第二季度，我們看到銷售額增長相當強勁。我想說，這是對奧緯諮詢選擇支持我們客戶真正變革時刻的反思，由我們的公共部門業務、銀行業務、運輸和服務以及我們的電信團隊領導。

And then also some of our other businesses, our economic research, consultancy, NERA and our brand consulting business, Lippincott showing strong growth and our digital practice showing strong growth. So I wouldn't say yet but it's correlated with economic uptick. Clients need to use us for their performance transformation as well as for their growth strategy. But sales in the second quarter have been better than we had expected. And in the near term, I'm relatively optimistic. In the longer term, the economic outcomes are still fairly widely ranged.

我們的其他一些業務，我們的經濟研究、諮詢、NERA 和我們的品牌諮詢業務 Lippincott 也顯示出強勁的增長，我們的數字實踐也顯示出強勁的增長。所以我還不會說，但這與經濟增長有關。客戶需要利用我們來實現績效轉型和增長戰略。但第二季度的銷售情況好於我們的預期。就短期而言，我相對樂觀。從長遠來看，經濟結果仍然存在相當大的差異。

Next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

Just had another question on the increased outlook to high single digit for the year, just sort of high-level question. Was that improved outlook more a function of the results you've achieved to date? Or has your outlook improved at all going forward?

剛剛還有一個關於將今年的前景提高到高個位數的問題，只是一個高層問題。這種改善的前景更多的是您迄今為止所取得的成果的結果嗎？或者您對未來的展望是否有所改善？

Thanks, David, for the question. It's really a function of both, right? We've had, again, a terrific start to the year, very, very pleased with the growth and again, not just growth in parts of the business, just broad-based good execution and a lot of hard work by the team and really a reflection of the value that we're creating for clients. And so we remain positive with that outlook. And again, geopolitical environment particularly but also the macroeconomic outlook are -- there's volatility there. So we want to be mindful of that, but we feel very good about the second half.

謝謝大衛提出這個問題。這確實是兩者的功能，對嗎？今年我們再次有了一個出色的開局，對增長非常非常滿意，不僅僅是部分業務的增長，還有廣泛的良好執行力和團隊的大量辛勤工作，這確實反映了我們為客戶創造的價值。因此，我們對這一前景保持樂觀。再說一次，地緣政治環境尤其是宏觀經濟前景都存在波動。所以我們要注意這一點，但我們對下半場感覺非常好。

Got it. And maybe just a question on Mercer Career. So I saw that decelerated a little bit, the growth decelerated. And the compare wasn't that much harder than the first quarter. So I'm just wondering, is there anything that you're seeing there on the pipeline front? Or just anything that would indicate that any clouds on the horizon?

知道了。也許只是關於美世職業生涯的問題。所以我看到增長速度有所放緩。而且這種比較並不比第一季度難多少。所以我只是想知道，您在管道方面看到了什麼嗎？或者只是任何表明地平線上有云的東西？

Yes. Thanks, David. We love what we're doing at Mercer Career. So let me ask Martine to talk about our results year-to-date.

是的。謝謝，大衛。我們熱愛我們在美世職業生涯所做的事情。讓我請 Martine 談談我們今年迄今的成果。

Yes. Thanks, David, for the question. And you touched on it. The quarter growth this quarter was on top of challenging 17% comparable for the second quarter of last year. Our quarter at 6% in Q2 now has also been impacted by the delay of start of certain projects.

是的。謝謝大衛提出這個問題。你觸及了它。本季度的季度增長率高於去年第二季度 17% 的增長率。我們第二季度的增長率為 6%，現在也受到某些項目延遲啟動的影響。

But I would say that the fundamentals for the business remain very strong. We have 9% growth year-to-date. The demand for service continues. Our clients still grapple with labor shortages, wage inflation, dealing with new ways of working, tech in the workplace. We discussed generative AI with the clients.

但我想說的是，該業務的基本面仍然非常強勁。今年迄今為止，我們的增長率為 9%。對服務的需求仍在繼續。我們的客戶仍在努力應對勞動力短缺、工資上漲、應對新的工作方式和工作場所技術的問題。我們與客戶討論了生成式人工智能。

So you're right, it's also a business that has the largest component of discretionary from clients for us at Mercer, and we are always watching the macroeconomics. But I would say at this point, our sales, our pipeline, client sentiment, very strong. So it continues to give us good visibility into strength for the third quarter and beyond. So I'm confident that the rest of the year will be good for career.

所以你是對的，對於美世來說，這也是我們客戶的全權委託業務中佔比最大的業務，而且我們一直在關注宏觀經濟。但我想說，在這一點上，我們的銷售、渠道、客戶情緒都非常強勁。因此，它繼續讓我們能夠很好地了解第三季度及以後的實力。所以我相信今年剩下的時間對職業生涯會有好處。

Thanks, Martine. Thanks, David.

謝謝，馬丁娜。謝謝，大衛。

And our next question comes from the line of Mike Ward with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的邁克·沃德 (Mike Ward)。

You called out Global Specialty and Guy Carpenter. Just wondering if you can discuss some of those trends and maybe the runway and how significant those impacts are.

你喊出了全球專業公司和蓋伊·卡彭特。只是想知道您是否可以討論其中一些趨勢，也許還有跑道以及這些影響有多大。

Sure. Thanks, Mike, for the question. Maybe I'll ask Dean. We're quite pleased with our execution in what's been a very, very challenging reinsurance market in the first half of this year. But Dean, maybe you can talk about the growth at GC.

當然。謝謝邁克提出這個問題。也許我會問迪恩。我們對今年上半年非常非常具有挑戰性的再保險市場的執行情況感到非常滿意。但是 Dean，也許你可以談談 GC 的成長。

Sure. Thanks, John. Look, we're very pleased with our 11% underlying growth in the quarter, 10% for the first half of the year. As you call out, we've seen strong growth across all of our regions, in particular internationally. And Global Specialties, Global Specialties placed deeply in the retrocession capital market based in London and globally, and there's been some capital challenges.

當然。謝謝，約翰。看，我們對本季度 11% 的基本增長、今年上半年 10% 的基本增長感到非常滿意。正如您所說，我們在所有地區都看到了強勁的增長，特別是在國際上。 Global Specialties，Global Specialties 深深紮根於倫敦和全球的轉分界資本市場，並且存在一些資本挑戰。

Despite that, we've seen some capital inflow into the marketplace. But despite market conditions, our Global Specialty team continues to grow and perform impressively. New business across Guy Carpenter continues to accelerate. Some of that's from all the talent that we hired. We're winning in the marketplace. We're seeing very strong demand in this marketplace for our analytics platform, which we think is the best in the marketplace.

儘管如此，我們還是看到一些資本流入市場。但儘管市場狀況不佳，我們的全球專業團隊仍在不斷成長並表現出色。蓋伊·卡彭特 (Guy Carpenter) 的新業務繼續加速發展。其中一些來自我們僱用的所有人才。我們正在市場上獲勝。我們看到這個市場對我們的分析平台的需求非常強勁，我們認為這是市場上最好的。

Demand for our advice and solutions remains strong. I mean our clients are really experiencing and seeing a flight to quality works and a challenging market environment where capital is still constrained, where reinsurers are driving really challenging terms and conditions, you want to be with the best.

對我們的建議和解決方案的需求依然強勁。我的意思是，我們的客戶確實正在經歷並看到了對優質作品的追求和充滿挑戰的市場環境，在這種環境中，資本仍然受到限制，再保險公司正在推動真正具有挑戰性的條款和條件，您希望與最好的合作。

I think also, Guy Carpenter securities is differentiating in the marketplace. We did over 20 cap bond deals in the first half of the year with some of that new ILS capital coming into the marketplace. We've done ILS structuring for key clients. And so I think there's just kind of real momentum in the business kind of globally. And of course, the market continues to be a tailwind. There's not enough new capital in the marketplace to change the trajectory of the pricing environment.

我還認為，蓋伊·卡彭特證券在市場上具有差異化優勢。今年上半年，我們進行了 20 多筆上限債券交易，其中一些新的 ILS 資本進入了市場。我們已經為主要客戶完成了 ILS 構建。所以我認為全球範圍內的商業都有真正的動力。當然，市場仍然是一個順風車。市場上沒有足夠的新資本來改變定價環境的軌跡。

Thank you, Dean. Martin, maybe you can talk a little bit about the growth in specialties.

謝謝你，迪恩。馬丁，也許你可以談談專業的發展。

Yes. Thank you, John. As I mentioned earlier, where we've seen really good growth in the specialty area has been in the credit specialties, maybe not surprising given what's happening in the environment. Construction has been very strong internationally. Aviation and energy and power, as those go through a transition there and aviation has bounced back. So feeling very good about that, I'll also take it with the advisory business as well, where we -- the 2 businesses hanging together.

是的。謝謝你，約翰。正如我之前提到的，我們在專業領域看到真正良好的增長是在信貸專業領域，考慮到環境中發生的情況，這也許並不奇怪。國際上的建設非常強勁。航空、能源和電力，隨著這些領域經歷轉型，航空業已經反彈。因此，我對此感覺非常好，我也會將其與諮詢業務一起對待，我們——這兩家公司是緊密結合在一起的。

We're advising clients increasingly on how to manage their loss costs, how to drive growth during the energy transition and so forth. So all of those specialty areas, we're seeing really strong growth and momentum. And that's how we go to market and it's how we differentiate ourselves through that lens.

我們越來越多地為客戶提供有關如何管理損失成本、如何在能源轉型期間推動增長等方面的建議。因此，所有這些專業領域，我們都看到了非常強勁的增長和勢頭。這就是我們進入市場的方式，也是我們通過這個鏡頭使自己脫穎而出的方式。

Yes. In a world where the cost of risk is continuing to escalate, our efforts to -- on risk consulting are really important to our clients and driving a lot of value, Mike. I also want to point out what's obviously been a -- particularly on the reinsurance side of late. But after several years of pricing increases, of course, at Marsh as well, it's a difficult market.

是的。在風險成本持續上升的世界中，我們在風險諮詢方面的努力對我們的客戶來說非常重要，並帶來了很大的價值，邁克。我還想指出明顯的情況——特別是最近在再保險方面。但經過幾年的價格上漲，當然，對於達信來說，這是一個困難的市場。

We take our role as a market maker quite seriously and in the quarter, announced a couple of different things that I would point out: a multiline facility in London that we call Fast Track for our clients at Marsh. And then we also created a reciprocal inside of our MGA operations at Victor as well, trying to bring new solutions to what is a difficult market for clients. Do you have a follow-up, Mike?

我們非常認真地對待做市商的角色，在本季度宣布了幾件我想指出的不同事情：在倫敦建立一個多線設施，我們為達信客戶提供快速通道。然後，我們還在 Victor 的 MGA 運營部門內部創建了一個互惠機構，試圖為客戶面臨的困難市場帶來新的解決方案。邁克，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. That was super helpful. Maybe last quarter, you spoke a little bit about developing countercyclical product in Oliver Wyman. Just wondering if you can share some examples on that.

是的。這非常有幫助。也許上個季度，您談到了奧緯諮詢開發反週期產品的情況。只是想知道您是否可以分享一些相關的例子。

Yes. Nick, do you want to talk about some of the capabilities we've been building inside of Oliver Wyman?

是的。尼克，您想談談我們在奧緯諮詢內部構建的一些功能嗎？

Yes. I mean there are various of our sectors, which are perhaps less exposed to the cycles. So last year, you saw we acquired the excellent Avascent business, which is in aerospace and defense specialist, as an example. So some of our sectors, we've been trying to position ourselves carefully through the cycle.

是的。我的意思是我們有很多行業，它們可能較少受到週期的影響。例如，去年我們收購了出色的 Avascent 業務，該業務是航空航天和國防專業公司。因此，我們一直在努力在整個週期中仔細定位自己的某些部門。

And then on the capabilities side, we do a very large amount of work now in performance transformation. And that's not solely a downturn-oriented solution, but it's needed when clients are going through either margin squeeze on the top line or the bottom line.

然後在能力方面，我們現在在性能轉型方面做了非常多的工作。這不僅僅是一個針對經濟低迷的解決方案，而且當客戶正在經歷頂線或底線的利潤擠壓時，它是必要的。

And then a couple of years ago, we started to build a restructuring practice. It's still very nascent, but we've seen very strong growth in that area as well. So that's just a few different examples.

幾年前，我們開始建立重組實踐。它仍處於起步階段，但我們也看到該領域的強勁增長。這只是幾個不同的例子。

I think the final point I'd make is that really from the pandemic onwards, we've seen a reduction in the correlation between our different industries. Some have been in downturn for quite a long time, sort of working through their own so many crisis, which sometimes requires advisory support and then some are quite procyclical.

我想我要說的最後一點是，從大流行開始，我們已經看到不同行業之間的相關性有所減少。有些公司已經處於低迷狀態相當長一段時間，正在經歷如此多的危機，有時需要諮詢支持，有些則相當順週期性。

But I'd note that our private equity, private capital practice, which obviously slowed considerably over the last 3 or 4 quarters has started to pick up and we're seeing activity both pre- and post-deal. So that's a sort of a bit of a picture across the business.

但我要指出的是，我們的私募股權、私人資本實踐在過去三四個季度明顯放緩，但現在已經開始回升，我們看到交易前和交易後的活動。這就是整個行業的大概情況。

Thank you, Nick. Thank you, Mike, for the questions.

謝謝你，尼克。謝謝邁克提出的問題。

And our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布萊恩·梅雷迪思 (Brian Meredith)。

This is Weston Bloomer on for Brian. My first question is a follow-up on Oliver Wyman. Obviously, strong growth there and you highlighted a few subsectors that saw the growth. I'm curious, within financial services and banking, was any of that growth driven by the banking turmoil that we saw earlier in the year or more one-off opportunities? I guess I'm going with that, too, is that something that you think could play out in the back half of this year or 2024 just given the turmoil earlier in the year?

我是韋斯頓·布盧默 (Weston Bloomer) 為布萊恩 (Brian) 發言。我的第一個問題是奧緯諮詢的後續問題。顯然，那裡的增長強勁，您強調了一些出現增長的子行業。我很好奇，在金融服務和銀行業領域，這種增長是由我們今年早些時候看到的銀行業動盪還是更多一次性機會推動的？我想我也同意這一點，考慮到今年早些時候的動盪，您認為這可能會在今年下半年或 2024 年發生嗎？

Thanks, Weston. Good question. Nick, maybe you could talk a little bit about -- you mentioned banking being a strength to date, but maybe you could talk about the outlook.

謝謝，韋斯頓。好問題。尼克，也許你可以談談——你提到銀行業是迄今為止的一個優勢，但也許你可以談談前景。

Yes. I mean there are different puts and takes in our growth numbers. But perhaps 35% to 40% of our growth was driven by our banking practice. As you know, that is really a preeminent business for us. And at the beginning of that crisis, we felt that was just adding to uncertainty, may lead to some pauses in decisions, which may slow down the pipeline.

是的。我的意思是我們的增長數字有不同的投入和投入。但我們的增長或許有 35% 到 40% 是由我們的銀行業務推動的。如您所知，這對我們來說確實是一項卓越的業務。在這場危機開始時，我們認為這只會增加不確定性，可能會導致決策暫停，從而減慢進程。

In the second quarter, we did see some work coming through from it. It's hard to separate out exactly how much is driven by crisis response versus banks preparing to get ahead of capabilities that they now know they need given the very different interest rate environment.

在第二季度，我們確實看到了一些工作的進展。考慮到截然不同的利率環境，很難準確區分到底有多少是由危機應對驅動的，還是銀行準備超越他們現在知道自己需要的能力。

There are a lot of the core essentials of the banking system. Our muscles that haven't had to be used in the very low rate environment we've had for a very, very long time. And so there is work on liability management, interest rate risk management, deposit management, the value of the branch network, not to mention tooling ourselves up for the new TAC and AI capabilities that might be helpful. But yes, we have seen that be a driver of some business already and we continue to expect that over the coming quarters.

銀行系統有很多核心要素。我們的肌肉已經很長一段時間不需要在非常低速率的環境中使用了。因此，我們需要在負債管理、利率風險管理、存款管理、分支機構網絡價值等方面開展工作，更不用說為可能有幫助的新 TAC 和人工智能功能做好準備。但是，是的，我們已經看到這已經成為一些業務的驅動力，並且我們繼續預計未來幾個季度會出現這種情況。

Thanks, Nick. Weston, yes, go ahead.

謝謝，尼克。韋斯頓，是的，繼續吧。

You'd highlight that 35% to 40% of the growth was driven within financial services. Have you given a -- rule of thumb, I'd always assume that financial services was the largest subsector within OI. I just want to confirm that's the case or if you've given a breakout there.

您會強調，35% 到 40% 的增長是由金融服務推動的。您是否給出了一條經驗法則，我一直認為金融服務是 OI 中最大的子行業。我只是想確認情況確實如此，或者你是否已經在那裡突破了。

We don't get to break out. I mean it's one of our strongest practices. It's also one of the largest sectors in management consulting globally but it's -- yes, it's one of our strength areas.

我們無法突破。我的意思是這是我們最有力的做法之一。它也是全球管理諮詢領域最大的領域之一，但它是——是的，這是我們的優勢領域之一。

Got it. And then just one more within Guy Carpenter. Can you talk about the dynamic versus treaty versus FAC placements and the kind of the growth outlook that you're seeing there? Are there more opportunities within FAC given just changes in buying or buyer behavior?

知道了。然後是蓋伊·卡彭特（Guy Carpenter）的另一部作品。您能談談動態配置、條約配置、FAC 配置以及您在那裡看到的增長前景嗎？鑑於購買或買家行為的變化，FAC 內是否有更多機會？

Thanks, Weston. We've seen good growth, in fact, over the course of the last couple of years, both ceded and client-driven, in fact, Oliver Wyman and Guy Carpenter and Marsh work quite closely together to capture that opportunity and to make sure we're bringing all the available capital all over the world to our clients to help again navigate what's been a very, very difficult marketplace. So the growth has been quite strong in both FAC and in treaty as well. Thank you, Weston.

謝謝，韋斯頓。事實上，在過去的幾年裡，我們已經看到了良好的增長，無論是讓渡的還是客戶驅動的，事實上，奧緯諮詢、蓋伊·卡彭特和達信緊密合作，抓住這個機會，並確保我們將世界各地所有可用的資本帶給我們的客戶，以幫助他們再次駕馭這個非常非常困難的市場。因此，FAC 和條約方面的增長都相當強勁。謝謝你，韋斯頓。

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自保羅·紐瑟姆和派珀·桑德勒的對話。

I didn't think I heard much of anything about the M&A environment. I think we're all sort of waiting for things to change there versus the -- because of the interest rate environment changes that any updated thoughts on M&A and how you see the environment there for yourself?

我認為我沒有聽到太多有關併購環境的信息。我認為我們都在等待那裡的事情發生變化——因為利率環境發生了變化，關於併購的任何最新想法以及您如何看待那裡的環境？

Yes. Sure, Paul. We remain quite active in the market and have a solid pipeline. We're -- of course, we continue to look for businesses with solid growth fundamentals that are well led and terrific talent and not only will they make us better, but hopefully, we think we can make them better as well.

是的。當然，保羅。我們在市場上仍然相當活躍，並擁有堅實的管道。當然，我們會繼續尋找具有堅實增長基礎、領導良好、人才濟濟的企業，它們不僅能讓我們變得更好，而且希望我們也能讓它們變得更好。

I'd say the pipeline is pretty broad from both an RIS and consulting perspective. We, of course, did a big deal in Mercer investments on the 1st of April. So we're excited about that in Australia and we were just in Australia as a team, so excited about the acquisition there and what it means to our investments.

我想說，從 RIS 和諮詢的角度來看，管道都相當廣泛。當然，我們在 4 月 1 日對美世投資進行了一筆大交易。因此，我們對此在澳大利亞感到很興奮，而且我們作為一個團隊在澳大利亞，對那裡的收購及其對我們投資的意義感到非常興奮。

The market, obviously, the number of deals is -- was down. Some buyers, primarily financial buyers, are sitting it out at the moment, but strategic players are still quite active. And what I would say is demand is strong for higher-quality businesses that are out there. And so while, obviously, the cost of capital has increased quite a bit, prized assets are still trading at a premium.

顯然，市場交易數量正在下降。一些買家（主要是金融買家）目前正觀望，但戰略參與者仍然相當活躍。我想說的是，市場對高質量企業的需求非常強勁。因此，儘管資本成本明顯增加了很多，但珍貴資產的交易價格仍然很高。

So -- but again, we're excited about what's possible there. And we've worked very hard and have built a very strong reputation as a buyer in the market. And that creates a lot of opportunity for us. Do you have a follow-up, Paul.

所以——但我們再次對那裡的可能性感到興奮。我們非常努力地工作，並在市場上建立了作為買家的良好聲譽。這為我們創造了很多機會。保羅，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. As a follow-up, could you talk about the divestitures that you've made and how important or maybe not important, they are to the margin improvements over the last quarter or last year? I know they're small in size, but...

是的。作為後續行動，您能否談談您所做的資產剝離，以及它們對於上一季度或去年的利潤率改善有多重要或可能不重要？我知道它們的尺寸很小，但是...

Yes. Yes. No, thanks. Sorry to jump in on you there. They are relatively modest in size, but we are being thoughtful about the portfolio in that respect. And for the most part, they've happened at Mercer. Again, we recently announced the divestiture of what really is an admin business primarily or really entirely an admin business, and so not core, lower-growth, capital-intensive operations. And candidly, they're better owners of assets like that than us, others that can bring greater scale and technology and solutions.

是的。是的。不，謝謝。很抱歉打擾你。它們的規模相對較小，但我們正在考慮這方面的投資組合。大多數情況下，這些事情都發生在美世。同樣，我們最近宣布剝離真正的管理業務（主要是或完全是管理業務），而不是核心、低增長、資本密集型業務。坦率地說，他們是比我們更好的此類資產所有者，其他人可以帶來更大的規模、技術和解決方案。

So we don't expect to do a lot of it, but where we see the opportunity and it makes us better and stronger and enables us to invest in our core, we'll take steps to do that. Thank you, Paul.

因此，我們不期望做很多事情，但只要我們看到機會，它使我們變得更好、更強，並使我們能夠投資於我們的核心，我們就會採取措施做到這一點。謝謝你，保羅。

And our next question comes from the line of Jing Li with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自李靜和KBW的對話。

Just a question on the Asia Pacific business. Can you add some color on it, since I see that is the rate of the sum for this quarter? So do you expect it to continue for the coming quarters?

只是關於亞太地區業務的問題。你能在上面添加一些顏色嗎，因為我看到這是本季度的總和比率？那麼您預計這種情況會持續到未來幾個季度嗎？

Sure, Jing. Maybe I'll ask Martin to talk about it, but we're very excited about the possibility for growth in Asia and in the Pacific, not just at Marsh but across our businesses. As I mentioned, as a leadership team, we're recently in Australia and we see lots of possibilities. But Martin, maybe you can talk a little bit about the quarter and your outlook.

當然，璟。也許我會請馬丁談談這個問題，但我們對亞洲和太平洋地區的增長可能性感到非常興奮，不僅是在達信，而且在我們的整個業務中。正如我提到的，作為一個領導團隊，我們最近在澳大利亞，我們看到了很多可能性。但是馬丁，也許你可以談談這個季度和你的前景。

Look, I think the important thing, when we look at International, we like to look at growth over longer periods of time. With regard to APAC, 6% underlying growth in the quarter, it's 8% year-to-date. We think that's much more indicative of what the growth would be like over a longer period of time.

我認為重要的是，當我們關注國際市場時，我們喜歡關注較長時期內的增長。就亞太地區而言，本季度基本增長率為 6%，而今年迄今為 8%。我們認為這更能說明較長時期內的增長情況。

Likewise, we probably have slightly elevated growth in Latin America. We'd expect that to normalize over a period of time as well. So I just think it's something that we're not worried about. We have a great business in Asia Pac and feel very confident about the future.

同樣，我們在拉丁美洲的增長可能略有加快。我們預計這種情況也會在一段時間內恢復正常。所以我認為這是我們不擔心的事情。我們在亞太地區擁有出色的業務，並對未來充滿信心。

Lots of opportunities. It's one of the parts of the world where there's a meaningful protection gap. So Jing, do you have a follow-up?

很多機會。它是世界上存在明顯保護差距的地區之一。那麼Jing，你有後續嗎？

Yes. So for this quarter, 6%, I guess? So you mean -- guys means that it's kind of like a one-time thing? So you continue to be a double-digit kind of going forward?

是的。我猜這個季度是 6%？所以你的意思是——伙計們，這有點像一次性的事情？所以你未來會繼續以兩位數的速度前進嗎？

Sure. Yes, we're not going to give specific guidance on Asia Pacific underlying revenue growth. But we do think it's an area -- a region that we're very well positioned for strong growth going forward. So as Martin mentioned, we're well positioned in that market. We've got terrific distribution throughout most major countries throughout the region and we're excited about. It's one of the ways in which JLT made us quite stronger. So thank you, Jing.

當然。是的，我們不會就亞太地區的基本收入增長提供具體指導。但我們確實認為這是一個我們非常有能力實現未來強勁增長的領域。正如馬丁所提到的，我們在該市場中處於有利地位。我們在整個地區的大多數主要國家都有出色的分銷，對此我們感到很興奮。這是 JLT 讓我們變得更加強大的方式之一。所以謝謝你，靜。

I'm showing no questions at the moment. (Operator Instructions).

我目前沒有提出任何問題。 （操作員說明）。

Operator, I think we can wrap up if there are no more questions.

接線員，如果沒有其他問題的話，我們就可以結束了。

We do have a question, a follow-up. Our follow-up question comes from Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs.

我們確實有一個問題，一個後續行動。我們的後續問題來自高盛的羅伯特·考克斯。

Just one follow-up on the M&A, SPAC and capital markets activity. Can you give us a sense of whether that continued maybe just directionally if that was more or less of a headwind in this quarter versus the first quarter?

這只是併購、SPAC 和資本市場活動的後續行動。您能否告訴我們，如果本季度與第一季度相比，這種情況或多或少是一種逆風，這種情況是否會持續下去？

Sure. Maybe I'll ask Martine to unpack our growth at Mercer investments a bit. Martine?

當然。也許我會請 Martine 稍微介紹一下我們在美世投資的增長情況。馬丁娜？

Yes, absolutely. I mean we -- our OCIO business is grown really rapidly over the last few years. But as you know, it's been impacted by capital markets over the last many quarters. Although it does benefit from net AUM inflows, some of that volatility does drive demand for the OCIO service.

是的，一點沒錯。我的意思是，我們的 OCIO 業務在過去幾年中增長非常迅速。但如您所知，過去幾個季度它受到資本市場的影響。儘管它確實受益於資產管理規模淨流入，但其中一些波動確實推動了對 OCIO 服務的需求。

What we've seen in Q2 is still a small drag due to year-over-year capital market. But based on the value that we see at the end of the quarter, it bodes well for the rest of the year. Small accretive growth from capital markets for Q3 as far as we can see from levels today. So this is a good business for us. It's a diversified portfolio. The volatility in the equity market has come down.

由於資本市場與去年同期相比，我們在第二季度看到的情況仍然是一個小拖累。但根據我們在本季度末看到的價值，這對今年剩餘時間來說是個好兆頭。從今天的水平來看，第三季度資本市場出現小幅增長。所以這對我們來說是一筆好生意。這是一個多元化的投資組合。股市波動性有所下降。

On the bond market, it's still a little bit elevated. But all of that has contributed to a lot of need on the client side for advice regarding the volatility, the funding of their pension plans, et cetera. It's been good for us and our clients have been finding new ways to deal with the environment.

在債券市場上，它仍然有點高。但所有這些都導致​​客戶非常需要有關波動性、養老金計劃資金籌措等方面的建議。這對我們有好處，我們的客戶一直在尋找應對環境的新方法。

Thank you, Martine, and thanks, Rob, for the follow-up. I want to thank you all for joining us on the call this morning. In closing, I want to thank our over 85,000 colleagues for their hard work and dedication. I also want to thank our clients for their continued support. So thank you all very much and we look forward to speaking with you next quarter. Operator, thank you.

謝謝馬丁，也謝謝羅布的跟進。我要感謝大家今天早上參加我們的電話會議。最後，我要感謝超過 85,000 名同事的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我還要感謝我們的客戶一直以來的支持。非常感謝大家，我們期待下個季度與你們交談。接線員，謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's program. You may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，今天的節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。