威達信集團 (MMC) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Marsh & McLennan's earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded.

歡迎來到 Marsh & McLennan 的收益電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。

First quarter 2023 financial results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at marshmclennan.com. Please note that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K, all of which are available on the Marsh McLennan website.

今天上午早些時候發布了 2023 年第一季度財務業績和補充信息。它們可在公司網站 marshmclennan.com 上找到。請注意，今天發表的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，多種因素可能導致實際結果與此類陳述預期的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素的更詳細討論，請參閱我們本季度的收益發布和我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們最近的 10-K 表格，所有這些都可以在 Marsh McLennan 網站上找到。

During the call today, we may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release (Operator Instructions).

在今天的電話會議中，我們還可能會討論某些非 GAAP 財務措施。有關這些措施與最接近可比的 GAAP 措施的協調，請參閱今天的收益發布（運營商說明）中的時間表。

I'll now turn this over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.

我現在將把這個問題交給 Marsh McLennan 的總裁兼首席執行官 John Doyle。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our first quarter results reported earlier today. I'm John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan. Joining me on the call is Mark McGivney, our CFO; and the CEOs of our businesses: Martin South of Marsh; Dean Klisura of Guy Carpenter; Martine Ferland of Mercer; and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman. Also with us this morning is Sarah Dewitt, Head of Investor Relations.

早上好，感謝您加入我們討論我們今天早些時候報告的第一季度業績。我是 Marsh McLennan 的總裁兼首席執行官 John Doyle。和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席財務官 Mark McGivney；以及我們業務的首席執行官：Marsh 的 Martin South； Guy Carpenter 的 Dean Klisura；美世的 Martine Ferland；和奧緯諮詢的 Nick Studer。今天早上也和我們在一起的還有投資者關係主管 Sarah Dewitt。

Marsh McLennan had a strong start to 2023. Our first quarter results were excellent, and we are well positioned for another good year. Top line momentum continued as we generated 9% underlying revenue growth on top of 10% growth in the first quarter of last year. We had strong growth across most businesses, segments and geographies, with underlying growth at Marsh, Guy Carpenter and Mercer accelerating compared to the fourth quarter.

Marsh McLennan 在 2023 年開局良好。我們第一季度的業績非常出色，我們為又一個好年景做好了準備。在去年第一季度 10% 的增長基礎上，我們實現了 9% 的基礎收入增長，收入勢頭持續。我們在大多數業務、部門和地區都實現了強勁增長，與第四季度相比，Marsh、Guy Carpenter 和 Mercer 的基礎增長加速。

Adjusted operating income grew 13% versus a year ago, reflecting our strong growth. Our adjusted operating margin expanded by 150 basis points compared to the first quarter of 2022. And adjusted EPS growth was strong at 10%, building on 16% in the first quarter of 2022.

調整後營業收入比一年前增長 13%，反映出我們的強勁增長。與 2022 年第一季度相比，我們調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 150 個基點。調整後的每股收益增長強勁，達到 10%，高於 2022 年第一季度的 16%。

In addition to delivering terrific results, we continue to execute on acquisitions. On April 1, we completed the merger of BT Super with Mercer Super Trust, creating one of Australia's most competitive super funds with approximately 850,000 members and $63 billion of assets under management.

除了提供出色的業績外，我們還繼續執行收購。 4 月 1 日，我們完成了 BT Super 與 Mercer Super Trust 的合併，創建了澳大利亞最具競爭力的超級基金之一，擁有約 850,000 名成員和 630 億美元的管理資產。

I'm pleased with our performance, especially when viewed in the context of the volatile macroeconomic environment. The global economy has been contending with high inflation, aggressive tightening of monetary policy by central banks, some recent bank failures and the effects of geopolitical instability. We have a track record of resilience across economic cycles, and there are factors that support continued growth in our business.

我對我們的表現感到滿意，尤其是在動蕩的宏觀經濟環境下。全球經濟一直在與高通脹、中央銀行積極收緊貨幣政策、最近一些銀行倒閉以及地緣政治不穩定的影響作鬥爭。我們擁有跨經濟周期的彈性記錄，並且有一些因素支持我們業務的持續增長。

Although the outlook for real GDP growth continues to be under pressure, inflation remains elevated, driving higher insured values and loss costs. P&C insurance and reinsurance rates continue to increase as carriers price to account for the rising frequency and severity of catastrophe losses, social inflation and higher reinsurance costs.

儘管實際 GDP 增長前景繼續面臨壓力，但通脹仍然居高不下，推高了保險價值和損失成本。 P&C 保險和再保險費率繼續上漲，因為承運人定價以應對災難損失、社會通貨膨脹和更高的再保險成本的頻率和嚴重程度。

Healthcare costs are trending higher, and employers expect further increases in the years ahead. Labor markets remain tight in most major economies, with 3.5% unemployment and nearly 10 million unfilled jobs in the U.S. And short-term interest rates are at the highest level since the financial crisis, lifting fiduciary income.

醫療保健成本呈上升趨勢，雇主預計未來幾年會進一步增加。大多數主要經濟體的勞動力市場仍然吃緊，美國失業率為 3.5%，有近 1000 萬個工作崗位空缺，短期利率處於金融危機以來的最高水平，提振了受託收入。

Change and uncertainty create complexity as well as opportunity for clients. Marsh McLennan's leadership and capabilities in risks, strategy and people help them navigate shifting landscapes.

變化和不確定性為客戶帶來了複雜性和機遇。 Marsh McLennan 在風險、戰略和人員方面的領導能力和能力幫助他們應對不斷變化的形勢。

Turning to insurance and reinsurance market conditions. Primary insurance rate increases persisted with the Marsh Global Insurance Market Index up 4% overall, in line with the fourth quarter. Property rate increases accelerated to 10%, and casualty pricing was up in the low single-digit range. Workers' compensation was flat, and financial and professional liability insurance rates were down mid-single digits. Cyber insurance saw the highest increase in our index, although the rate of increase continued to moderate.

轉向保險和再保險市場狀況。達信全球保險市場指數整體上漲 4%，與第四季度持平，初級保險費率持續上漲。財產保險費率增長加速至 10%，傷亡費用上漲至較低的個位數範圍內。工傷賠償持平，金融和專業責任保險費率下降了中等個位數。網絡保險在我們的指數中增幅最大，儘管增幅繼續放緩。

In reinsurance, market conditions remained challenging from January 1 through April 1. Risk appetite for property catastrophe reinsurance remains constrained. Reinsurers continue to push for structural changes and tightened terms and conditions. Limited new capital has entered the market to support property catastrophe risks.

在再保險方面，從 1 月 1 日到 4 月 1 日，市場狀況仍然充滿挑戰。財產巨災再保險的風險偏好仍然受到限制。再保險公司繼續推動結構改革和收緊條款和條件。有限的新資本進入市場以支持房地產巨災風險。

At April renewals, U.S. property cat reinsurance rates saw increases of 40% to 60% on average for non-loss-affected accounts, with higher increases for loss-affected business. U.S. casualty reinsurance rate increases were more modest.

在 4 月續保時，美國財產巨災再保險費率對於未受損失影響的賬戶平均增長 40% 至 60%，受損失影響業務的增幅更高。美國傷亡再保險費率的增長較為溫和。

In Japan, property cat rates were up 15% to 25%. The impact of rate increases on ceded premiums was mitigated by higher retentions. We continue to help our clients manage through these challenging market conditions.

在日本，財產巨變率上升了 15% 至 25%。較高的保留率減輕了利率上漲對分出保費的影響。我們將繼續幫助我們的客戶應對這些充滿挑戰的市場環境。

Now I'd like to take a moment to provide an update on our recent strategic initiatives and highlight some of the steps we've taken. As we discussed last quarter, our leadership team is focused on delivering the full capabilities of Marsh McLennan to our clients, continuously improving the client and colleague experience, efficiently managing capital and driving growth and value for shareholders. There are meaningful opportunities at the intersections of our businesses where our colleagues can deliver the benefits of our scale, data insights and solutions that are highly valued by clients.

現在我想花點時間介紹一下我們最近的戰略舉措的最新情況，並強調我們已經採取的一些步驟。正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，我們的領導團隊專注於向我們的客戶提供 Marsh McLennan 的全部能力，不斷改善客戶和同事的體驗，有效地管理資本並推動股東的增長和價值。在我們的業務交叉點存在有意義的機會，我們的同事可以在這些機會中提供客戶高度重視的我們的規模、數據洞察力和解決方案帶來的好處。

In February, we named Flavio Piccolomini to lead Marsh McLennan for International and Pat Tomlinson to lead U.S. and Canada. Since then, we have also named additional Marsh McLennan region and country leaders. These leaders are driving greater client impact through enhanced collaboration while, at the same time, maintaining the strength of the value propositions of each of our businesses. This deliberate focus on collaboration is already yielding benefits. Let me share some examples.

2 月，我們任命 Flavio Piccolomini 領導 Marsh McLennan 負責國際業務，任命 Pat Tomlinson 負責美國和加拿大業務。從那時起，我們還任命了更多的 Marsh McLennan 地區和國家領導人。這些領導者通過加強合作推動更大的客戶影響，同時保持我們每項業務價值主張的優勢。這種對協作的刻意關注已經產生了效益。讓我分享一些例子。

Guy Carpenter securities and Mercer Investments successfully arranged an insurance-linked securities transaction for a major insurer to transfer earthquake risk. This type of win, the first of its kind in the insurers' market, was possible because of the combined strength of Guy Carpenter's leadership in earthquake parametric structuring and Mercer's deep local investment and regulatory expertise.

Guy Carpenter securities 和 Mercer Investments 成功地為一家大型保險公司安排了保險相關證券交易以轉移地震風險。由於 Guy Carpenter 在地震參數結構方面的領導地位和美世深厚的本地投資和監管專業知識的綜合實力，這種類型的勝利在保險公司市場尚屬首次。

Marsh and Guy Carpenter brought the best of our capabilities to a complex clean energy opportunity. Together, we facilitated a project to bring clean hydropower to New York City from Canada and advance New York State's goal of obtaining 70% of electricity statewide from renewable sources by 2030.

Marsh 和 Guy Carpenter 將我們最好的能力用於復雜的清潔能源機會。我們共同推動了一個項目，將清潔水電從加拿大引入紐約市，並推進紐約州到 2030 年實現全州 70% 的電力來自可再生能源的目標。

Mercer Career, an economist from Oliver Wyman, delivered an executive compensation solution for a joint venture between 2 major medical device manufacturers. Mercer designed a new equity compensation rewards program for the joint venture, while Oliver Wyman provided the modeling work for the rewards.

奧緯諮詢的經濟學家 Mercer Career 為兩家主要醫療設備製造商之間的合資企業提供了高管薪酬解決方案。美世為合資企業設計了新的股權薪酬獎勵計劃，而奧緯諮詢則提供了獎勵的建模工作。

As we drive deeper collaboration, we are also finding ways to operate, reduce complexity and organize for impact. As we noted in January, we took actions to align our workforce and skill sets with evolving needs, rationalize technology and reduce our real estate footprint. We see opportunities for savings beyond the actions we have already taken. Mark will provide further details. But overall, we now expect roughly $300 million of savings by 2024, with total cost to achieve these savings of $375 million to $400 million.

隨著我們推動更深入的合作，我們也在尋找運營、降低複雜性和組織影響的方法。正如我們在 1 月份指出的那樣，我們採取行動使我們的員工隊伍和技能組合與不斷變化的需求保持一致，使技術合理化並減少我們的房地產足跡。除了我們已經採取的行動之外，我們還看到了節約的機會。馬克將提供更多細節。但總體而言，我們現在預計到 2024 年將節省大約 3 億美元，實現這些節省的總成本為 3.75 億美元至 4 億美元。

Our leadership appointments, go-to-market collaboration and restructuring actions are an opportunity to accelerate impact for clients, reinvest in our capabilities and to be more efficient and connected.

我們的領導層任命、上市合作和重組行動是一個機會，可以加速對客戶的影響，對我們的能力進行再投資，並提高效率和聯繫。

Before I turn to our results, I want to comment on ESG. Our recently released ESG report highlights the many ways in which Marsh McLennan is meeting these challenges and helping clients better manage their strategies. We have a track record of ESG engagement, and it's an area where we continue to see an opportunity to support our colleagues, clients and communities. Sometimes, this work takes place at the macro or community level, like Guy Carpenter's work helping communities build resilience in the face of natural disasters through community-based catastrophe insurance.

在我轉向我們的結果之前，我想對 ESG 發表評論。我們最近發布的 ESG 報告強調了 Marsh McLennan 應對這些挑戰並幫助客戶更好地管理其戰略的多種方式。我們在 ESG 參與方面有著良好的記錄，在這個領域我們繼續看到支持我們的同事、客戶和社區的機會。有時，這項工作發生在宏觀或社區層面，例如蓋伊·卡彭特 (Guy Carpenter) 的工作是通過基於社區的巨災保險幫助社區在面對自然災害時建立復原力。

But more often, it takes place in our work with clients, such as helping clients navigate an evolving climate landscape or our efforts to help organizations address gender and racial pay equity and ensure fairness in rewards. We are proud of the work we do in this area and consider it a privilege to help clients progress their ESG strategies.

但更常見的是，它發生在我們與客戶的合作中，例如幫助客戶駕馭不斷變化的氣候格局，或者我們努力幫助組織解決性別和種族薪酬公平問題並確保獎勵公平。我們為我們在這一領域所做的工作感到自豪，並認為幫助客戶推進其 ESG 戰略是一種榮幸。

Now let me turn to our first quarter financial performance. We generated adjusted EPS of $2.53, which is up 10% from a year ago, or 12%, excluding the impact of foreign exchange. On an underlying basis, revenue grew 9%. Underlying revenue grew 11% in RIS and 5% in Consulting. Marsh was up 9%, Guy Carpenter grew 10%, Mercer grew 7% and Oliver Wyman was flat after growing revenue nearly 40% over the last 2 years.

現在讓我談談我們第一季度的財務業績。我們產生的調整後每股收益為 2.53 美元，比一年前增長 10%，即 12%，不包括外彙的影響。在基礎上，收入增長了 9%。 RIS 的基礎收入增長了 11%，諮詢業務的基礎收入增長了 5%。 Marsh 上漲 9%，Guy Carpenter 上漲 10%，Mercer 上漲 7%，Oliver Wyman 在過去兩年收入增長近 40% 後持平。

Overall, the first quarter saw adjusted operating income growth of 13%, and our adjusted operating margin expanded 150 basis points year-over-year.

總體而言，第一季度調整後營業收入增長 13%，調整後營業利潤率同比增長 150 個基點。

Turning to our outlook. We are well positioned for 2023 and continue to expect mid-single-digit or better underlying revenue growth, another year of margin expansion and strong growth in adjusted EPS. Our outlook contemplates that current macro conditions persist. But as we discussed earlier, there's uncertainty regarding the economic backdrop, which could turn out to be different than our assumptions.

轉向我們的前景。我們為 2023 年做好了準備，並繼續期待中個位數或更好的基礎收入增長、又一年的利潤率擴張和調整後每股收益的強勁增長。我們的展望認為當前的宏觀狀況將持續存在。但正如我們之前討論的那樣，經濟背景存在不確定性，結果可能與我們的假設不同。

In summary, the first quarter was a great start to the year for Marsh McLennan. Our business delivered strong performance, and we continue to execute well on our strategic initiatives. I'm proud of the focus and determination of our colleagues and the value that they deliver to our clients and shareholders.

總而言之，第一季度對 Marsh McLennan 來說是今年的一個良好開端。我們的業務表現強勁，我們繼續很好地執行我們的戰略計劃。我為我們同事的專注和決心以及他們為我們的客戶和股東帶來的價值感到自豪。

With that, let me turn it over to Mark for a more detailed review of our results.

有了這個，讓我把它轉交給馬克，以便對我們的結果進行更詳細的審查。

Thank you, John, and good morning. Our first quarter results were outstanding and reflected continued momentum in underlying growth, strong margin expansion and double-digit growth in adjusted EPS. Our consolidated revenue increased 7% in the first quarter to $5.9 billion, with underlying growth of 9%. Operating income was $1.7 billion, and adjusted operating income increased 13% to $1.8 billion.

謝謝你，約翰，早上好。我們第一季度的業績非常出色，反映了基礎增長的持續勢頭、強勁的利潤率擴張和調整後每股收益的兩位數增長。我們的綜合收入在第一季度增長了 7%，達到 59 億美元，基礎增長率為 9%。營業收入為 17 億美元，調整後營業收入增長 13% 至 18 億美元。

Our adjusted operating margin increased 150 basis points to 31.2%. GAAP EPS was $2.47, and adjusted EPS was $2.53, up 10% over last year.

我們調整後的營業利潤率增加了 150 個基點，達到 31.2%。 GAAP 每股收益為 2.47 美元，調整後每股收益為 2.53 美元，比去年增長 10%。

Looking at Risk & Insurance Services. First quarter revenue was $3.9 billion, up 10% compared with a year ago or 11% on an underlying basis. This result marks the eighth consecutive quarter of 8%-or-higher underlying growth in RIS, continues the best stretch of growth in nearly 2 decades. Adjusted operating income increased 17% to $1.4 billion, and our adjusted operating margin expanded 210 basis points to 38.6%.

查看風險與保險服務。第一季度收入為 39 億美元，同比增長 10%，基本增長 11%。這一結果標誌著 RIS 連續第八個季度實現 8% 或更高的基礎增長，延續了近 20 年來最好的增長勢頭。調整後營業收入增長 17% 至 14 億美元，調整後營業利潤率擴大 210 個基點至 38.6%。

At Marsh, revenue in the quarter was $2.7 billion, up 8% from the first quarter of last year or 9% on an underlying basis. This comes on top of 11% growth in the first quarter of last year and reflects acceleration from the fourth quarter. Growth in the first quarter reflected excellent retention and strong new business.

在達信，本季度的收入為 27 億美元，比去年第一季度增長 8%，基本增長 9%。這是在去年第一季度增長 11% 的基礎上，反映了第四季度的加速增長。第一季度的增長反映出出色的保留率和強勁的新業務。

In U.S. and Canada, underlying growth was 7% for the quarter, a solid result given the continued headwind from lower M&A and capital markets activity.

在美國和加拿大，本季度基本增長率為 7%，考慮到併購和資本市場活動減少帶來的持續逆風，這是一個穩健的結果。

In international, underlying growth was strong at 10% and comes on top of 11% growth in the first quarter of 2022. Asia Pacific was up 11%, EMEA was up 10% and Latin America grew 10%.

在國際市場，基本增長強勁，達到 10%，高於 2022 年第一季度 11% 的增長率。亞太地區增長 11%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區增長 10%，拉丁美洲增長 10%。

Guy Carpenter's revenue was $1.1 billion, up 7% or 10% on an underlying basis, driven by strong growth across all regions and global specialties and reflecting the tighter reinsurance market conditions.

Guy Carpenter 的收入為 11 億美元，基本增長 7% 或 10%，這得益於所有地區和全球專業業務的強勁增長，並反映出再保險市場形勢趨緊。

In the Consulting segment, first quarter revenue was $2 billion, up 1% from a year ago or 5% on an underlying basis. Consulting operating income was $411 million and adjusted operating income was $406 million, up 1%, reflecting continued foreign exchange headwinds and the softer quarter at Oliver Wyman. Our adjusted operating margin in Consulting was 20.3% in the first quarter, a decrease of 30 basis points.

在諮詢業務方面，第一季度收入為 20 億美元，同比增長 1%，基本增長 5%。諮詢營業收入為 4.11 億美元，調整後營業收入為 4.06 億美元，增長 1%，反映了持續的外匯逆風和奧緯諮詢疲軟的季度。我們調整後的諮詢業務利潤率在第一季度為 20.3%，下降了 30 個基點。

Mercer's revenue was $1.3 billion in the quarter, up 7% on an underlying basis. Career revenue increased 12%, the eighth straight quarter of double-digit growth and reflected continued demand in rewards, talent strategy and workforce transformation.

美世本季度的收入為 13 億美元，基本增長 7%。職業收入增長 12%，連續第八個季度實現兩位數增長，反映了對獎勵、人才戰略和勞動力轉型的持續需求。

Health underlying growth was 12% and reflected strength in employer and government segments and momentum across all regions. Wealth grew 2% on an underlying basis, driven by continued strength in defined benefits consulting, partly offset by a decline in investment management due to continued capital market headwinds.

健康基礎增長率為 12%，反映了雇主和政府部門的實力以及所有地區的發展勢頭。受固定福利諮詢業務持續強勁的推動，財富基礎增長 2%，部分被資本市場持續逆風導致的投資管理下降所抵消。

Our assets under management were $354 billion at the end of the first quarter, up 3% sequentially but down 9% from the first quarter of last year due to market declines and foreign exchange that more than offset positive net flows.

第一季度末，我們管理的資產為 3,540 億美元，環比增長 3%，但由於市場下滑和外匯抵消了正淨流量，因此比去年第一季度下降了 9%。

Oliver Wyman's revenue in the first quarter was $687 million, which was flat on an underlying basis. As John noted, this follows a nearly 40% increase in Oliver Wyman's revenue over the past 2 years.

奧緯諮詢第一季度的收入為 6.87 億美元，基本持平。正如 John 指出的那樣，Oliver Wyman 的收入在過去 2 年中增長了近 40%。

Recent sales activity has been encouraging, however, suggesting we could see a return to modest growth in Oliver Wyman in the second quarter.

然而，最近的銷售活動令人鼓舞，這表明我們可能會看到奧緯諮詢在第二季度恢復溫和增長。

Foreign exchange was a $0.04 headwind in the first quarter. Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect FX to be at $0.02 headwind in the second quarter and mostly neutral in the second half.

外彙在第一季度受到 0.04 美元的不利影響。假設匯率保持在當前水平，我們預計第二季度外匯匯率將處於 0.02 美元的逆風水平，下半年基本保持中性。

I want to provide an update on the restructuring program we discussed last quarter. Based on our plans today, we expect total charges related to this program of between $375 million and $400 million. To date, we have incurred nearly $250 million of charges and currently expect to incur most of the remaining costs in 2023. We expect to achieve total savings of approximately $300 million by 2024, with $160 million to $180 million realized in 2023 and the balance in 2024.

我想提供我們上個季度討論的重組計劃的最新情況。根據我們今天的計劃，我們預計與該計劃相關的總費用在 3.75 億美元至 4 億美元之間。迄今為止，我們已經產生了近 2.5 億美元的費用，目前預計將在 2023 年產生大部分剩餘成本。我們預計到 2024 年將實現約 3 億美元的總節省，其中 1.6 億至 1.8 億美元將在 2023 年實現，餘額將在2024.

Our other net benefit credit was $58 million in the quarter. For the full year 2023, we continue to expect our other net benefit credit will be about $235 million.

本季度我們的其他淨收益信貸為 5800 萬美元。對於 2023 年全年，我們繼續預計我們的其他淨收益信貸將約為 2.35 億美元。

Investment income was $2 million in the quarter -- in the first quarter on a GAAP basis or $4 million on an adjusted basis. This compares to $17 million of investment income in the first quarter of 2022 on an adjusted basis. Interest expense in the first quarter was $136 million, up from $110 million in the first quarter of 2022. This reflects an increase in long-term debt and higher interest rates on commercial paper, which we use for efficient working capital management. Based on our current forecast, we expect approximately $150 million of interest expense in the second quarter and approximately $575 million for the full year.

本季度的投資收益為 200 萬美元——第一季度按 GAAP 計算或調整後為 400 萬美元。相比之下，2022 年第一季度調整後的投資收益為 1700 萬美元。第一季度的利息支出為 1.36 億美元，高於 2022 年第一季度的 1.1 億美元。這反映了長期債務的增加和商業票據利率的提高，我們將其用於高效的營運資金管理。根據我們目前的預測，我們預計第二季度的利息支出約為 1.5 億美元，全年約為 5.75 億美元。

Our effective adjusted tax rate in the first quarter was 25% compared with 23.1% in the first quarter of last year. Our tax rate benefited from favorable discrete items, the largest of which was the accounting for share-based compensations similar to a year ago. Excluding discrete items, our effective adjusted tax rate was approximately 25.5%.

我們第一季度的有效調整稅率為 25%，而去年第一季度為 23.1%。我們的稅率受益於有利的離散項目，其中最大的是與一年前類似的基於股份的薪酬會計。不包括離散項目，我們的有效調整稅率約為 25.5%。

When we give forward guidance around our tax rate, we do not project discrete items, which can be positive or negative. Based on the current environment, it's reasonable to assume a tax rate between 25% and 26% for 2023.

當我們就稅率給出前瞻性指引時，我們不會預測離散項目，這些項目可以是正數也可以是負數。根據目前的環境，假設 2023 年的稅率在 25% 到 26% 之間是合理的。

Turning to capital management and our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with total debt of $13 billion. This includes the $600 million of senior notes we issued in March. Our next scheduled debt maturity is October 2023, when $250 million of senior notes mature.

轉向資本管理和我們的資產負債表。我們在本季度末的總債務為 130 億美元。這包括我們在 3 月份發行的 6 億美元優先票據。我們的下一個預定債務到期日是 2023 年 10 月，屆時 2.5 億美元的優先票據到期。

Our cash position at the end of the first quarter was $1 billion. Uses of cash in the quarter totaled $876 million and included $296 million for dividends, $280 million for acquisitions and $300 million for share repurchases. We continue to expect to deploy approximately $4 billion of capital in 2023 across dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases. The ultimate level of share repurchase will depend on how the M&A pipeline develops. While there continues to be uncertainty in the outlook for the global economy, we feel good about the momentum in our business, and there are factors in the macro environment that remains supportive of growth.

我們在第一季度末的現金頭寸為 10 億美元。本季度現金使用總額為 8.76 億美元，其中包括 2.96 億美元的股息、2.8 億美元的收購和 3 億美元的股票回購。我們繼續預計 2023 年將在股息、收購和股票回購方面部署約 40 億美元的資金。股份回購的最終水平將取決於併購管道的發展情況。儘管全球經濟前景仍然存在不確定性，但我們對業務發展勢頭感到滿意，宏觀環境中的一些因素仍然支持增長。

I would also note that while our current outlook contemplates margin expansion in the second quarter, we expect it will be more modest than in the other quarters, reflecting the talent investments we continue to make last year, timing of the annual raises and the continued rebound in expenses such as T&E relative to last year.

我還要指出，雖然我們目前的展望考慮了第二季度的利潤率擴張，但我們預計利潤率將比其他季度更為溫和，這反映了我們去年繼續進行的人才投資、年度加薪的時機和持續反彈與去年相比，T&E 等費用有所下降。

Overall, our strong start leaves us well positioned for another good year in 2023. Based on our outlook today, for the full year, we continue to expect mid-single-digit or better underlying growth, margin expansion and strong growth in adjusted EPS.

總體而言，我們的強勁開局使我們為 2023 年又一個好年頭做好了準備。根據我們今天的展望，對於全年，我們繼續預期中個位數或更好的基本增長、利潤率擴張和調整後每股收益的強勁增長。

And with that, I'm happy to turn it back to John.

有了這個，我很高興把它轉回給約翰。

Thank you, Mark. Operator, we're ready to begin Q&A.

謝謝你，馬克。接線員，我們準備好開始問答了。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

I had a question just on the increased cost saves from the restructuring. So a pretty big increase in that target. I'm wondering, John, if maybe you could just talk about the sources of those benefits and if this is all we -- if there's anything more that we could expect potentially in the future.

我有一個關於重組帶來的成本節省增加的問題。因此，該目標的增長相當大。我想知道，約翰，你是否可以談談這些好處的來源，以及我們是否僅此而已——如果我們在未來還有什麼可以期待的。

Sure. Thanks, David. So as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're excited about the opportunities at the intersections of our businesses. We're being more deliberate and focused on areas of collaboration, and that's creating both revenue and expense or efficiency opportunities for us. I shared or spoke about the news about Flavio and Pat's appointments. So I'm excited about that and the other region leaders and country leaders that we put in place to really capture these opportunities for us, so -- but from an efficiency point of view, they're in the similar areas to what we talked about on the fourth quarter call earlier this year. It's in the area of talent, of course, and re-skilling and moving talent to important growth opportunities.

當然。謝謝，大衛。因此，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們對我們業務交叉點的機會感到興奮。我們更加深思熟慮並專注於合作領域，這為我們創造了收入和支出或效率機會。我分享或談論了有關弗拉維奧和帕特任命的消息。因此，我對此以及我們為真正抓住這些機會而設立的其他地區領導人和國家領導人感到興奮，所以 - 但從效率的角度來看，他們與我們所談論的領域相似關於今年早些時候的第四季度電話會議。當然，這是在人才領域，以及對人才進行再培訓和將人才轉移到重要的增長機會。

And I would point out, we are reinvesting as well, although the savings we talked about, that's net of reinvestment. Beyond people, it's technology and real estate. And so it's our best estimate at the moment. But again, we're going to continue to look for opportunities along the way.

我要指出的是，我們也在進行再投資，儘管我們談到的儲蓄是再投資的淨額。除了人，還有技術和房地產。所以這是我們目前最好的估計。但同樣，我們將繼續在此過程中尋找機會。

Got it. And -- oh, sorry, go ahead.

知道了。並且 - 哦，抱歉，請繼續。

Oh, go ahead. Sorry, David, follow-up.

哦，繼續吧。對不起，大衛，跟進。

I guess I would just follow up on that and just ask talent is one that you had mentioned. I'm just wondering, the Marsh operational excellence program and using centers of excellence, I'm just wondering how many employees do you have in these centers? And where you think you can get that due over what time period?

我想我會繼續跟進，只是問人才是你提到的。我只是想知道，Marsh 卓越運營計劃和使用卓越中心，我只是想知道您在這些中心有多少員工？您認為您可以在什麼時間段內收到到期款項？

Yes. It's -- we're not in the early stages of the game in terms of mid- and back-office efficiency opportunity. And I would point out, it's broader than Marsh or have similar work underway at Mercer and at Guy Carpenter as well. There's still opportunities in front, but we're also still investing in capabilities, including in talent and in technology to support these efforts. And so that will drive further efficiencies for us down the road. Thank you, David.

是的。就中後台效率機會而言，我們還不處於遊戲的早期階段。我要指出的是，它比 Marsh 更廣泛，或者在 Mercer 和 Guy Carpenter 也有類似的工作正在進行。前面仍有機會，但我們仍在投資於能力，包括人才和技術以支持這些努力。因此，這將進一步提高我們的效率。謝謝你，大衛。

Our next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Jimmy Bhullar。

So I had a question on organic growth and the acceleration you reported in the first quarter in the RIS division. Just wondering, to what extent results benefited from sort of one-off type timing of business type things or were there other factors that you think are more sustainable in nature?

所以我有一個關於有機增長和你在第一季度報告的 RIS 部門加速的問題。只是想知道，結果在多大程度上受益於業務類型事物的一次性類型時間安排，或者您認為是否還有其他因素在本質上更具可持續性？

Yes. I am sure, Jimmy. Yes, very pleased with the start to the year. As you noted, and I pointed out in my prepared remarks, it's an acceleration from our growth in the fourth quarter. I talked about some of the macros that are supportive of growth, not just in RIS, but in our business more broadly.

是的。我確定，吉米。是的，對今年的開局非常滿意。正如你所指出的，我在準備好的發言中指出，這是我們第四季度增長的加速。我談到了一些支持增長的宏，不僅在 RIS 中，而且在我們更廣泛的業務中。

But I also want to point out, we've invested in talent, in growth areas. We've deployed capital in markets that we think have strong growth fundamentals. And we've also been quite focused all throughout the company in investing in our sales operations' capabilities, in tools as well. There's nothing really one-off about what happened in the first quarter. And we feel good about -- feel good again about the revenue growth. Maybe I'll ask Martin to share some details, and then Dean to give a little bit of more color of where we saw some of the strong growth in RIS in the quarter.

但我也想指出，我們在增長領域投資於人才。我們已經在我們認為具有強勁增長基礎的市場中部署了資金。我們也一直非常專注於在整個公司投資於我們的銷售運營能力，以及工具。第一季度發生的事情並沒有真正的一次性。我們對收入增長感覺良好 - 再次感覺良好。也許我會請 Martin 分享一些細節，然後 Dean 就我們在本季度看到 RIS 的一些強勁增長的地方給出更多的顏色。

Thank you, John. I'd be delighted to, yes. We're very pleased with the strong organic growth of 9% in Q1, which is on top of the 11% posted in Q1 '22, our strongest quarter last year and better than the full year growth of 8%. Solid growth was across international at 10%; APAC at 11%; EMEA, 10%; LAC at 10%; U.S. and Canada are at 7%. And as expected, the U.S. and Canada results were once again impacted through tough comps and transactional risk and elevated M&A, SPAC and capital markets activity at the beginning of '22. And the overall 9% growth in the quarter was on top of the 11% in -- Q1 '22.

謝謝你，約翰。我很樂意，是的。我們對第一季度 9% 的強勁有機增長感到非常滿意，這是在 22 年第一季度 11% 的基礎上，這是我們去年最強勁的季度，好於全年 8% 的增長。國際穩健增長 10%；亞太地區為 11%；歐洲、中東和非洲，10%； LAC 為 10%；美國和加拿大為 7%。正如預期的那樣，美國和加拿大的業績再次受到艱難的補償和交易風險以及 22 年初併購、SPAC 和資本市場活動增加的影響。本季度 9% 的整體增長率高於 22 年第一季度的 11%。

Specialty growth was good. Credit specialties, construction, aviation and marine cargo easily overset the drop in M&A growth. Renewal growth is very strong in U.S. and Canada, fueled by the new business we've put on in '22; and stronger client retention and reduced loss business, which is very pleasing. So we feel very good how we're positioned. We're very good about our talent, the capabilities in the business and the consistency of the performance across the book and over a number of quarters.

專業增長良好。信貸專業、建築、航空和海運貨物很容易抵消併購增長的下降。在我們 22 年推出的新業務的推動下，美國和加拿大的續訂增長非常強勁；更強的客戶保留率和減少的損失業務，這是非常令人高興的。所以我們對自己的定位感覺很好。我們對我們的人才、業務能力以及整個賬簿和多個季度的業績一致性非常滿意。

All right. Great. Thanks, Martin. Dean, do you want to share some thoughts on the reinsurance market?

好的。偉大的。謝謝，馬丁。 Dean，你想分享一些關於再保險市場的想法嗎？

Thanks, John. Similar to Martin, we're very pleased with Guy Carpenter's 10% underlying growth in the quarter, again, following 11% growth in the first quarter of 2022. We had very strong growth, consistent growth across all of our regions globally. And despite significant headwinds in the ILS capital market impacting retrocession placements, our global specialty team had a very, very strong first quarter. Certainly, our results reflect tightening market conditions and restrictions in capacity, as John noted, but I think demand for our advice and solutions remains very, very strong in a very challenging environment for our clients. We think the marketplace will be a pricing tailwind moving throughout 2023 and beyond. And keep in mind, at Guy Carpenter, we hired significant talent in the marketplace in the last 3 years. And that showed up with record new business levels in 2022, with very strong momentum into the first quarter and beyond.

謝謝，約翰。與 Martin 類似，繼 2022 年第一季度 11% 的增長之後，我們對 Guy Carpenter 在本季度再次實現 10% 的基本增長感到非常滿意。我們的增長非常強勁，全球所有地區的增長都保持一致。儘管 ILS 資本市場的逆風影響轉分保配售，但我們的全球專業團隊第一季度表現非常非常強勁。當然，正如約翰指出的那樣，我們的結果反映了市場條件的緊縮和產能的限制，但我認為在對我們的客戶來說非常具有挑戰性的環境中，對我們的建議和解決方案的需求仍然非常非常強勁。我們認為市場將成為整個 2023 年及以後的定價順風。請記住，在過去 3 年裡，我們在 Guy Carpenter 聘請了市場上的重要人才。這在 2022 年以創紀錄的新業務水平出現，第一季度及以後的勢頭非常強勁。

Great. Thanks, Dean. Jimmy, do you have a follow-up?

偉大的。謝謝，院長。吉米，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes, just a similar question on Oliver Wyman. I think Mark mentioned that you expect modest growth in the second quarter. But should we assume that the results this quarter were impacted by just economic uncertainty? And to the extent that continues, then that's a business that will see slower growth through the course of this year?

是的，只是奧緯諮詢的一個類似問題。我想馬克提到你預計第二季度將出現適度增長。但我們是否應該假設本季度的結果僅受到經濟不確定性的影響？如果這種情況持續下去，那麼這家公司今年的增長速度會放緩嗎？

Sure, Jimmy. I'll ask Nick to jump in, but I want to reiterate again, there's a step change in the size of Oliver Wyman's business over the last couple of years. We saw 40% growth. And so, there is good demand for our capabilities at Oliver Wyman. But Nick, maybe you could talk a little bit more about the first quarter and what you're seeing in the pipeline at the moment?

當然，吉米。我會請 Nick 加入，但我想再次重申，Oliver Wyman 的業務規模在過去幾年中發生了巨大變化。我們看到了 40% 的增長。因此，奧緯諮詢對我們的能力有很好的需求。但是尼克，也許你可以多談談第一季度以及你目前在管道中看到的東西？

Thank you very much for the question, Jimmy. We've known it was coming. I think, as I was looking back over the transcripts, it's 4, 5 quarters, I've had the question about economic uncertainty and growth. And you can see from the business headlines, it's a tougher environment for consulting firms right now.

非常感謝你提出這個問題，吉米。我們知道它來了。我想，當我回顧成績單時，已經有 4、5 個季度了，我對經濟不確定性和增長有疑問。你可以從商業頭條看到，現在對諮詢公司來說是一個更艱難的環境。

We have flat underlying growth. We have added some size through excellent acquisitions. Even at that level, I'm confident that we continue to gain share. It's a fragmented market. It's falling back from the peaks of the last couple of years.

我們的基礎增長持平。我們通過出色的收購增加了一些規模。即使在那個水平上，我相信我們會繼續獲得份額。這是一個分散的市場。它正在從過去幾年的高峰期回落。

And we signaled in Q4, a slowing in our sales as our clients, and probably a little bit us as well, paused after a torrid 2 years. When we were taking stock, they were taking stock. In our clients' cases, there was that economic uncertainty that you've highlighted. And add on top of that, the regular drumbeat of deal-driven revenues in our private equity practice and across our industry practices also remains depressed.

我們在第四季度發出信號，作為我們的客戶，我們的銷售放緩，可能還有一點我們，在炎熱的 2 年後暫停。當我們盤點時，他們也在盤點。在我們客戶的案例中，存在您強調的經濟不確定性。最重要的是，在我們的私募股權業務和我們整個行業的業務中，交易驅動收入的常規節奏也仍然低迷。

I'm extremely confident for the future. We continue to be selected to support clients in significant transformations around the world. We have growth in a range of our businesses, our India, Middle East and Africa business, where we had a good acquisition last year, it's growing strongly. Our top sectors of the public sector, automotive and manufacturing and energy to quite broad-based. Our Lippincott brands in innovation business; our economic consultancy, NERA, are in robust health.

我對未來非常有信心。我們繼續被選中為全球客戶的重大轉型提供支持。我們的一系列業務都有增長，我們的印度、中東和非洲業務，我們去年在這些業務中進行了很好的收購，增長強勁。我們的公共部門、汽車和製造業以及能源等頂級行業的基礎相當廣泛。我們在創新業務中的 Lippincott 品牌；我們的經濟諮詢公司 NERA 健康狀況良好。

Our digital practice continues well. And as I've said before, we've been preparing for more countercyclical offerings and our nascent restructuring practice. Although it's small, it's growing strongly. So we generally guide that through the cycle, we expect mid- to high single-digit growth. But last year was obviously much higher than this. We're now in the slower part of the cycle. But as Mark said, we are currently expecting modest growth in Q2.

我們的數字實踐繼續良好。正如我之前所說，我們一直在為更多的反週期產品和我們新生的重組實踐做準備。雖然它很小，但它正在強勁增長。因此，我們通常會引導整個週期，我們預計會出現中高個位數的增長。但是去年明顯比這個高很多。我們現在處於週期的較慢部分。但正如馬克所說，我們目前預計第二季度將適度增長。

Thanks, Nick. Before we leave the revenue growth story, I want to ask Martine to jump in here as well. We had a terrific quarter at Mercer, particularly strong growth in both career and our benefits business, but also a rebound in investments. Martine, maybe you can share some thoughts.

謝謝，尼克。在我們結束收入增長的故事之前，我想請 Martine 也加入進來。我們在美世度過了一個非常棒的季度，尤其是職業和福利業務的強勁增長，以及投資的反彈。 Martine，也許你可以分享一些想法。

Yes. No, thank you, John. And indeed, we're very pleased with our results, 7% overall and -- following a 6% Q1 last year. It's across all the regions. And I would say, there's -- the current macroeconomic environment is really supportive of the services that we bring to market. Our inflation and interest rate, volatile capital market, well-funded defined benefit plans, tight labor markets, demand for digital health services, new ways of working. And we've made quite a lot of investments as well in clear strategy, client segmentation, much more focused their investment in talent, in digital tools and intellectual capital. And therefore, I would say that these market conditions, combined with clarity of our strategy, our investment, are conducive to this kind of growth.

是的。不，謝謝你，約翰。事實上，我們對我們的結果非常滿意，總體上是 7%，而去年第一季度為 6%。它遍及所有地區。我會說，當前的宏觀經濟環境確實支持我們推向市場的服務。我們的通貨膨脹和利率、動蕩的資本市場、資金充足的固定福利計劃、緊張的勞動力市場、對數字醫療服務的需求、新的工作方式。我們在明確的戰略、客戶細分方面也進行了大量投資，更專注於對人才、數字工具和智力資本的投資。因此，我想說，這些市場條件，加上我們清晰的戰略、我們的投資，有利於這種增長。

The pipeline that we see, the sales that we are entering Q2 with is strong, and we have good visibility in the next quarter and probably a little bit over. Of course, we're always monitoring the macroeconomic conditions, as we've discussed with Oliver Wyman. But over the years, we've also invested in diversifying our portfolio towards faster growth elements and more recurring businesses in the portfolio. So it looks solid for the continuity in the year.

我們看到的管道，我們進入第二季度的銷售強勁，我們在下一季度有很好的能見度，可能會結束一點。當然，正如我們與 Oliver Wyman 討論的那樣，我們一直在監控宏觀經濟狀況。但多年來，我們還投資於使我們的投資組合多樣化，以實現更快的增長元素和投資組合中更多的經常性業務。因此，今年的連續性看起來很穩固。

Thank you, Martine.

謝謝你，馬丁。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Michael Zaremski。

I hope the questions don't have less yield, but I want to hear -- I'm curious about any comments on the U.S. Federal Trade Commission proposal to get rid of noncompetes. One of your peers commented publicly that they were against that. Any color? Did you guys make a comment and do most -- is it correct that most producers in the U.S. do have noncompetes in their contracts?

我希望這些問題不會減少收益，但我想听聽——我對美國聯邦貿易委員會關於取消競業禁止的提議有任何評論感到好奇。您的一位同行公開評論說他們反對這樣做。任何顏色？你們有沒有發表評論並且做了最多 - 美國大多數生產商的合同中確實有競業禁止條款是正確的嗎？

Thanks, Mike. I don't think there's a lot to report on here. We, of course, are always monitoring any potential regulatory changes or possible impacts on our business. We're certainly very well aware of the FTC proposal, and we've offered feedback through a number of different industry channels. We think Marsh McLennan is an employer of choice in a very competitive industry. We see a healthy environment for sure. And there really aren't noncompetes in businesses for our producers. And if you read the trade press, you see pretty active market for talent. It's a market that we're a net winner in. But nonetheless, there's an active market and talent moving around throughout the industry.

謝謝，邁克。我認為這裡沒有太多要報告的。當然，我們一直在監控任何潛在的監管變化或對我們業務的可能影響。我們當然非常了解 FTC 提案，並且我們已經通過許多不同的行業渠道提供了反饋。我們認為 Marsh McLennan 是競爭激烈的行業中的首選雇主。我們肯定會看到一個健康的環境。我們的生產商在業務中確實沒有競業禁止。如果您閱讀行業媒體，就會發現人才市場非常活躍。這是一個我們是淨贏家的市場。但儘管如此，整個行業仍有一個活躍的市場和人才流動。

Okay. Understood. My follow up is on the good better-than-expected consulting results ex Oliver Wyman. I am just digging in maybe more. It sounds like from your comments, you're not really calling out any kind of one-offs. Just kind of curious if you'd be willing to share whether the results were better than you internally had expected given the kind of macro outlook, especially in like Career? Or are things really just -- we're maybe focusing too much on some of the headlines you read, and things underneath the surface aren't as bad as some of the headlines might suggest.

好的。明白了。我的後續行動是關於好於預期的諮詢結果，ex Oliver Wyman。我只是在挖掘更多。從您的評論來看，您似乎並沒有真正提出任何一次性的要求。只是有點好奇你是否願意分享結果是否比你內部預期的宏觀前景好，尤其是在職業生涯中？或者事情真的只是 - 我們可能過於關注您閱讀的一些頭條新聞，而表面之下的事情並不像某些頭條新聞所暗示的那樣糟糕。

Look, I think the -- yes, yes. No, thanks, Mike. Look, the economy has proven to be quite resilient, right? There's no question about that. And I think when you think about Mercer's career business, there are services that we provide that were probably more discretionary in the past than they are in the current environment. Martine also noted how we've really tried to move into and deploy capital into more growth markets. We have high expectations for our businesses. And so again, we're pleased with the start to the year was good, terrific growth. Martine talked about the environment. It remains quite strong. So no major surprises. But again, we're pleased with the start to the year.

看，我認為 - 是的，是的。不，謝謝，邁克。看，事實證明經濟非常有彈性，對嗎？毫無疑問。我認為，當您考慮 Mercer 的職業業務時，我們提供的服務在過去可能比在當前環境下更具自由裁量權。 Martine 還指出了我們如何真正嘗試進入更多增長市場並將資金部署到更多增長市場。我們對我們的業務抱有很高的期望。因此，我們再次對今年開局的良好、驚人的增長感到高興。馬丁談到了環境。它仍然很強大。所以沒有什麼大的驚喜。但同樣，我們對今年的開局感到滿意。

And our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Elyse Greenspan 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

My first question is on the savings program. Can you give us a sense of how much of those $160 million to $180 million hit your results in the first quarter? And I'm also interested in getting a breakdown between RIS and Consulting? And also, can you give us a sense of the pacing for whatever saves are left? And how that should hit results for the balance of the year?

我的第一個問題是關於儲蓄計劃。你能告訴我們這 1.6 億到 1.8 億美元中有多少在第一季度達到了你的業績嗎？我也有興趣了解 RIS 和諮詢之間的細分？而且，你能告訴我們剩下的撲救節奏嗎？這將如何影響今年餘下時間的結果？

Sure. Thanks, Elyse, for the question. Mark, do you want to talk a bit more about that?

當然。謝謝，愛麗絲，這個問題。馬克，你想多談談這個嗎？

Elyse, we haven't been terribly specific, but I'll try to be helpful. So in terms of the how much hit in the first quarter, I think we took a lot of action in the fourth quarter of last year, as you saw through the size of the charges. So I think it's probably a reasonable assumption to -- if you wanted to assume a ratable pacing of the $180 million to -- $160 million to $180 million throughout this year. That's probably not bad. And as John noted earlier, that's net of reinvestment so that will fall to the bottom line.

Elyse，我們並沒有非常具體，但我會盡力提供幫助。因此，就第一季度的打擊程度而言，我認為我們在去年第四季度採取了很多行動，正如你從收費規模中看到的那樣。所以我認為這可能是一個合理的假設 - 如果你想假設今年全年的 1.8 億美元至 1.6 億美元至 1.8 億美元。那可能還不錯。正如約翰之前指出的那樣，這是扣除再投資的淨額，因此將落入底線。

In terms of split across businesses, we haven't been specific there, but you could look at the proportion of charges in some of our disclosures and make a rough approximation there as well. And so I think ratable spreading of the $160 million to $180 million through this year is not a bad way to go.

就跨業務的劃分而言，我們在那裡沒有具體說明，但您可以查看我們的一些披露中的費用比例，並在那裡進行粗略估計。因此，我認為今年將 1.6 億至 1.8 億美元按比例分配並不是一個壞方法。

Do you have a follow-up, Elyse?

你有後續行動嗎，愛麗絲？

Yes. On the reinsurance side, you guys have highlighted that's an area where you've hired a lot of talent over the last few years. I think I've also seen recently, you might have lost some talent, which we often see in the industry. So just as you think about like the tailwinds of strong pricing in that business, which came up earlier, do you think we can continue to see double-digit organic growth within that business as we kind of see the full impact of the midyear renewals and beyond?

是的。在再保險方面，你們強調了過去幾年你們在這個領域僱傭了很多人才。我想我最近也看到，你可能失去了一些人才，這是我們在行業中經常看到的。因此，正如您認為早些時候出現的該業務強勁定價的順風一樣，您是否認為我們可以繼續看到該業務的兩位數有機增長，因為我們看到了年中續約的全面影響和超過？

I am sure, Elyse. Look, again, it was a terrific start to the year. I'm very proud of our team. It's a very difficult marketplace and helping our insurance company clients navigate a very, very challenging market. And it obviously has a follow-on effect on our clients at Marsh as well. And so we're investing in our capabilities there and are well positioned for growth.

我確定，愛麗絲。看，今年又是一個了不起的開端。我為我們的團隊感到非常自豪。這是一個非常困難的市場，幫助我們的保險公司客戶在一個非常、非常具有挑戰性的市場中前行。它顯然也對我們在 Marsh 的客戶產生了後續影響。因此，我們正在投資於我們在那裡的能力，並為增長做好準備。

It is -- it's an active talent market. As I said earlier, it's a -- from a talent point of view, I really like how we're positioned. Our focus from a talent value proposition is about being your best at Marsh McLennan in all of our businesses. And again, we've been a net winner there. From time to time, obviously, we'll -- we do have some voluntary turnover. But the turnover you may have read about, it won't impact the trajectory of Guy Carpenter or our business. So we'll see where the market heads, both Dean and I commented. Property cat, a big headline at the moment. That's A line of business. most acute here in the United States. We have a much bigger, broader business than that. But demand for our services there remains quite strong. So we look forward to a good year at Guy Carpenter.

這是—這是一個活躍的人才市場。正如我之前所說，從人才的角度來看，我真的很喜歡我們的定位。我們的人才價值主張的重點是在 Marsh McLennan 的所有業務中做到最好。再一次，我們在那裡是淨贏家。顯然，我們有時會 - 我們確實有一些自願離職。但您可能已經讀到的營業額不會影響 Guy Carpenter 或我們業務的發展軌跡。因此，我們將看到市場走向何方，Dean 和我都評論道。 Property cat，當下的大頭條。那是A行。在美國這裡最嚴重。我們有比這更大、更廣泛的業務。但那裡對我們服務的需求仍然相當強勁。因此，我們期待在 Guy Carpenter 度過美好的一年。

And our next question comes from the line of Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的羅伯特考克斯。

I was hoping to drill into the retirement business and just any comments on how the economic backdrop may be impacting the business in providing any benefits.

我希望深入研究退休業務，以及關於經濟背景如何影響業務提供任何好處的任何評論。

Sure, Robert. Thanks for the question. May I ask Martine to unpack some of the investment in Mercer Wealth results overall. Martine?

當然，羅伯特。謝謝你的問題。我可以請 Martine 從總體上分析 Mercer Wealth 的一些投資結果嗎？馬丁？

Yes. No, my pleasure to do so. Thanks for the question, Robert. It was a good quarter for defined benefit business. And basically, the market condition, the volatility, there's a lot that we can do to help clients navigate through these changes. And I'm pretty proud of the team that has been quite innovative and proactive in addressing these challenges.

是的。不，我很樂意這樣做。謝謝你的問題，羅伯特。對於固定收益業務來說，這是一個很好的季度。基本上，市場狀況、波動性，我們可以做很多事情來幫助客戶應對這些變化。我為團隊在應對這些挑戰方面具有相當的創新性和積極性而感到自豪。

With the rise of interest rate, even though the asset side of the pension plans are depressed through equity, we've seen a great improvement in the funding of these plans. And when the funding of these plans become better, a lot of our clients looked for ways to divest the liabilities and assets to insurers. So we're seeing activities there in the buyout space, and that has fueled the DB Consulting business.

隨著利率的上升，儘管養老金計劃的資產方面通過股權受到抑制，但我們已經看到這些計劃的資金狀況有了很大改善。當這些計劃的資金變得更好時，我們的許多客戶都在尋找將負債和資產剝離給保險公司的方法。因此，我們在收購領域看到了一些活動，這推動了 DB 諮詢業務的發展。

So that being said, of course, the DB segment itself on the market is in structural decline. So underneath this, you'll continue to see this. But in the meantime, with the volatility, it does require quite a lot of work, and we're happy to help clients through these times.

因此，當然，市場上的 DB 部分本身正在結構性下降。所以在這個之下，你會繼續看到這個。但與此同時，由於市場波動，確實需要做大量工作，我們很樂意幫助客戶度過這段時期。

The other side of that equation in retirement is also the investment side. On the Consulting side, again, we were very busy helping through the volatility, the decline in equity, et cetera.

退休等式的另一面也是投資方面。在諮詢方面，我們又一次忙於幫助應對波動、股本下降等。

And our OCIO business, which is directly related, we're taking basis points above the value of assets as a way to pay for the services we render. And of course, when the value of assets are depressed, our revenue goes down. But we have net flows into that business. It's a business that has very good long-term growth through net flows, through return.

而我們直接相關的 OCIO 業務，我們正在以高於資產價值的基點作為支付我們提供的服務的方式。當然，當資產價值低迷時，我們的收入就會下降。但我們有淨流入該業務。這是一項通過淨流量和回報實現良好長期增長的業務。

It's just been a more difficult period over the last 1.5 years. We're seeing still quarter-over-quarter like year-over-year headwinds because the decline in market really started later in Q2 and then through Q3 last year. So that pressure on the year-over-year basis should ease out at current -- if the current AUM value stay at current level, we should see that starting to turn around in Q3.

在過去的 1.5 年裡，這是一個更加困難的時期。我們仍然看到季度同比逆風，因為市場下滑真正開始於第二季度晚些時候，然後一直持續到去年第三季度。因此，與去年同期相比的壓力目前應該會有所緩解——如果當前的 AUM 值保持在當前水平，我們應該會看到它在第三季度開始好轉。

Terrific. Thank you. Robert, do you have a follow-up?

了不起。謝謝。羅伯特，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. And just one follow-up. Are you seeing any benefit from China reopening in RIS? And just wondering if that's something you expect could potentially be a tailwind as we progress through the year.

是的。只有一個後續行動。您在 RIS 中看到中國重新開放有什麼好處嗎？只是想知道隨著我們今年的進展，這是否是您期望的可能成為順風。

It's hard to say overall, Robert. I mean what I would tell you is that our business in China has performed well, even through, if you want to call it, the shutdown of the economy. So we've had good solid growth in our business, both in the Mainland and in Hong Kong. I think -- obviously, I think, broadly speaking, the reopening of that economy should ease some of the economic uncertainty all around the world. And to the extent that, that could be helpful from a macro point of view, we certainly are -- we're certainly pleased with those developments. But it's hard to draw a direct correlation. We haven't seen a meaningful uptick, for example, in our -- in growth in China since the reopening.

總體來說很難說，羅伯特。我的意思是我要告訴你的是，我們在中國的業務表現良好，即使你想稱之為經濟停擺。因此，我們在內地和香港的業務都取得了穩健的增長。我認為 - 顯然，我認為，從廣義上講，經濟的重新開放應該會緩解世界各地的一些經濟不確定性。在某種程度上，從宏觀角度來看這可能有所幫助，我們當然 - 我們對這些發展當然感到滿意。但很難得出直接的相關性。例如，自重新開放以來，我們在中國的增長沒有看到有意義的增長。

And our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 Meyer Shields 與 KBW 的系列。

I know you've talked about this in the past, John, but I was hoping you could walk us through the impact of higher fiduciary income on margins. I'm asking specifically about second quarter, where you were talking about more cautious margin expansion expectations despite the fact that, at least in the first quarter, your fiduciary income was up like 2,000%?

我知道你過去曾談過這個問題，約翰，但我希望你能帶領我們了解更高的信託收入對利潤率的影響。我具體問的是第二季度，儘管事實上，至少在第一季度，您的信託收入增長了 2,000%，但您在那裡談論的是更加謹慎的利潤率擴張預期？

Yes. Look, obviously, fiduciary income is a -- it's a factor in our overall results. We don't look at it separately. We're constantly trying to balance near-term performance, delivering excellent results in the near term with also investing in the capabilities that are going to lead to sustainable growth in the future. We're very thoughtful about how we manage our expense base. That leads to very few surprises for us around our results. And I think we've thread that needle well, if you will, nailed that balance over the course of the last couple of years.

是的。看，很明顯，受託收入是——這是我們整體業績的一個因素。我們不分開看。我們一直在努力平衡近期業績，在短期內提供出色的成果，同時投資於未來可持續增長的能力。我們對如何管理我們的費用基礎非常周到。這對我們的結果幾乎沒有什麼驚喜。而且我認為我們已經很好地穿針引線，如果你願意的話，在過去幾年中實現了這種平衡。

So we're very pleased with the start to the year from a margin point of view. As we've talked about in the past, margins are -- particularly in a quarter, are not our primary objective. It's an outcome of the way we've run the business. We've had 15 consecutive years of margin expansion. We expect 2023 to be year #16. But from quarter-to-quarter, some seasonality to investments we make and some other variability that could lead to a different outcome from -- so it won't be a straight line quarter-to-quarter.

因此，從利潤率的角度來看，我們對今年的開局感到非常滿意。正如我們過去談到的那樣，利潤率——尤其是在一個季度內——不是我們的主要目標。這是我們經營業務方式的結果。我們已經連續 15 年實現利潤率擴張。我們預計 2023 年將是第 16 年。但是從一個季度到另一個季度，我們所做的投資存在一些季節性，以及可能導致不同結果的其他一些可變性——所以它不會是一個季度到一個季度的直線。

Okay. That's helpful. The second question, if I can. In your prepared remarks, you talked about healthcare costs going up. And I was hoping you could talk us through from, I guess, our perspective, how that impacts -- I'm thinking predominantly Mercer because I wouldn't think it would have the same upside that P&C rate increases have.

好的。這很有幫助。第二個問題，如果可以。在您準備好的發言中，您談到了醫療費用的上漲。我希望你能從我們的角度告訴我們，這是如何影響的——我主要考慮美世，因為我認為它不會像 P&C 利率上漲那樣有同樣的好處。

Well, where we are in commission, obviously, it could be helpful. And we get paid in different ways and in different EH&B markets around the world. And so again, it's not a straight line. And much like we've talked about in the context of reinsurance, we're very transparent about the compensation we earn and how we get paid with our clients. But effectively, a rising cost of risk is a tailwind, whether it's in P&C or in benefits to us. But we also provide other services and consulting services to our clients to help them navigate some of the challenges. And the tight labor market is a factor here as well. So Martine, maybe you can offer a little more color?

好吧，顯然，我們所處的位置可能會有所幫助。我們以不同的方式在世界各地不同的 EH&B 市場獲得報酬。同樣，這不是一條直線。就像我們在再保險的背景下談論的那樣，我們對我們賺取的報酬以及我們如何從客戶那裡獲得報酬非常透明。但實際上，風險成本上升是順風，無論是在 P&C 方面還是在我們的利益方面。但我們也為客戶提供其他服務和諮詢服務，幫助他們應對一些挑戰。勞動力市場緊張也是一個因素。那麼 Martine，也許你可以提供更多顏色？

You're absolutely right. There's also another element within Health that distinguish it from P&C in a way, is that very often, our clients are looking to not increase net cost for their employees because they very often sharing the cost. So we see a lot of demand for services from our part on a consulting basis to change the design of these plans to come up with digital solutions instead so that we can control the cost.

你是絕對正確的。 Health 中還有另一個元素在某種程度上將其與 P&C 區分開來，即我們的客戶通常希望不增加員工的淨成本，因為他們經常分擔成本。因此，我們在諮詢的基礎上看到我們對服務的大量需求，以改變這些計劃的設計以提出數字解決方案，以便我們可以控製成本。

So the inflation is not always directly manifesting itself in the premiums or in the coverage. There's also, as you said, John, a good part of our book that is on fees rather than on commission. So overall, there are many different components pushing the pressure because you're absolutely right, the healthcare costs are increasing all over the world. But the reaction from employers is to try to mitigate these costs through innovative solutions.

因此，通貨膨脹並不總是直接體現在保費或承保範圍內。正如你所說，約翰，我們書中有很大一部分是關於收費而不是佣金的。所以總的來說，有許多不同的因素在推動壓力，因為你是完全正確的，全世界的醫療保健成本都在增加。但雇主的反應是試圖通過創新解決方案來降低這些成本。

One other point on our Health and Benefits business, that just to share with everyone is that it's kind of an important proof point around some of the possibilities around collaboration inside of the company. This is a business that Mercer and Marsh work on together all over the world. And it's been a really important growth driver for us over the course of the last couple of years, and it's been a bit of a source of inspiration around what's possible as we come together more and bring our collective capabilities to the client. So thank you, Meyer.

關於我們的健康和福利業務的另一點，只是為了與大家分享，這是圍繞公司內部協作的一些可能性的重要證據。這是美世和達信在全球共同開展的業務。在過去的幾年裡，這對我們來說是一個非常重要的增長動力，並且隨著我們更多地走到一起並將我們的集體能力帶給客戶，它成為了一些關於可能的靈感來源。所以謝謝你，邁耶。

And our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Yaron Kinar 與 Jefferies 的合作。

I have 2, both margin related. So the first one, maybe piggybacking on Meyer's last -- first question. So clearly, you've had 3 consecutive quarters of 200 basis points or more of adjusted margin improvement in RIS, that's very notable. At the same time, if I'm doing the math correctly, fiduciary income added, what, 230 basis points of margins this quarter? Cost saves, I think, by Mark's comments, add another 100 basis points. So there seemed to have been some offsets in RIS. Can you talk about those?

我有 2 個，都與保證金相關。所以第一個問題，可能是藉用邁耶的最後一個問題——第一個問題。很明顯，你已經連續 3 個季度在 RIS 中獲得 200 個基點或更多的調整後利潤率改善，這是非常值得注意的。同時，如果我沒算錯的話，信託收入增加了，什麼，本季度的利潤率是 230 個基點？成本節省，我認為，根據馬克的評論，再增加 100 個基點。因此，RIS 中似乎存在一些抵消。你能談談那些嗎？

I don't -- certainly don't think of it in terms of offsets. Again, I'm pleased with the margin expansion in the quarter. As I said, we're very disciplined about how we manage our cost base. And we're not trying to optimize margins in any given quarter, right? We're trying to strike that balance between delivering terrific results today and sustainable growth and investment in capabilities that our clients are looking for in the future. So I'm very pleased with our start to the year from a margin perspective.

我不——當然不會從抵消方面考慮它。同樣，我對本季度的利潤率增長感到滿意。正如我所說，我們對如何管理成本基礎非常有紀律。我們並沒有試圖在任何給定的季度優化利潤率，對吧？我們正努力在今天取得出色成果與可持續增長和投資於我們的客戶未來所尋求的能力之間取得平衡。因此，從利潤率的角度來看，我對今年的開局感到非常滿意。

And I apologize if I'm belaboring the point, but I'm still a little confused because I thought the $160 million to $180 million of cost saves that were going to be ratable over the year were net of reinvestments. And it sounds like there was some reinvestment in growth this quarter.

如果我在強調這一點，我深表歉意，但我仍然有點困惑，因為我認為一年中可以計算的 1.6 億至 1.8 億美元的成本節省是扣除再投資的。聽起來本季度對增長進行了一些再投資。

We're always investing, of course, in future capabilities that will lead to sustainable growth in the future. There are some direct hiring that we did and investment that we did -- connected with some growth opportunities in our efforts to be more deliberate around collaboration, but we continue to invest broadly across the business as well. There's also T&E pressure. There's other inflationary impacts on the expense base of the company. But again, I'm pleased with 150 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter.

當然，我們一直在投資未來的能力，以實現未來的可持續增長。我們進行了一些直接招聘和投資——這與我們努力更加深思熟慮協作的一些增長機會有關，但我們也繼續在整個業務領域進行廣泛投資。還有 T&E 壓力。通貨膨脹對公司的費用基礎還有其他影響。但同樣，我對本季度利潤率增長 150 個基點感到滿意。

Got it. Okay. And my second question is on the consulting side. So I think, if it weren't for the JLT legacy legal charges, adjusted operating margin would have expanded quite nicely this quarter. I guess where are we with these charges? And we were at, what, 4 years from how the -- the acquisition? Do you expect those to continue?

知道了。好的。我的第二個問題是關於諮詢方面的。所以我認為，如果不是因為 JLT 遺留法律費用，調整後的營業利潤率本季度會大幅增長。我猜我們這些費用在哪裡？我們在，什麼，4 年之後 - 收購如何？你希望這些繼續下去嗎？

Yes. We're pretty far along in that story. That could be -- [reasonably] some smaller charges that will happen going forward. They are excluded in the adjusted margin that we report, just so you're aware of that. Most of what happened in the first quarter was the resolution of some legacy litigation that existed at JLT. I think there could be some real estate that we're still sorting our way through, but we're largely past these charges.

是的。我們在那個故事中走得很遠。那可能是 - [合理地] 未來會發生一些較小的費用。它們不包括在我們報告的調整後利潤中，只是想讓你知道這一點。第一季度發生的大部分事情是 JLT 存在的一些遺留訴訟的解決方案。我認為可能有一些房地產我們仍在整理我們的方式，但我們基本上已經過去了這些費用。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Andrew Kligerman。

Two quick questions. I think Martin on Marsh mentioned a bit of a headwind still from the robust IPO and M&A markets in the first quarter of last year. Maybe could you help us size that headwind in the first quarter? And then next quarter, maybe some color on sort of the tailwind of not having it there. I mean I had heard from some competitors that you had a 5% dampening effect on organic revenue growth last year. So just curious if you could help us size that at Marsh.

兩個快速問題。我認為 Martin on Marsh 提到去年第一季度強勁的 IPO 和併購市場仍然存在一些不利因素。也許你能幫助我們調整第一季度的逆風嗎？然後下個季度，可能會出現一些顏色，因為沒有它在那裡。我的意思是，我從一些競爭對手那裡聽說，你們去年對有機收入增長產生了 5% 的抑製作用。所以很好奇您是否可以幫助我們在 Marsh 確定規模。

Yes. We're not going to size that, Andrew. We talked about it a bit in the fourth quarter. It was a bit more of a headwind in the fourth quarter than it was in the first quarter, but it remained a headwind for us. Again, we're pleased with the growth overall. Capital markets are just one input to the overall macro environment and then, of course, what we're doing to execute and to expand our growth. But I mean, you can look at the big data and get a sense of when, obviously, M&A activity started to tail off an IPO activity. And while it won't be as much of a headwind of the -- must have projecting a major rebound in the market over the course of the next quarter or 2 as well.

是的。安德魯，我們不會調整它的大小。我們在第四季度談了一點。第四季度的逆風比第一季度要大一些，但對我們來說仍然是逆風。同樣，我們對整體增長感到滿意。資本市場只是對整體宏觀環境的一種投入，當然，也是我們為執行和擴大增長所做的努力。但我的意思是，你可以查看大數據，了解併購活動何時開始逐漸減少 IPO 活動。雖然它不會是那麼大的逆風 - 必須在下一季度或 2 期間預測市場將出現重大反彈。

Got it. Okay. So no more headwinds, at least. And then you had another good year of net hiring. I think it was around 3,000 last year following 6,000 in 2021. Curious what your outlook is for 2023. Are you expecting to see material net hiring? Maybe any color on what you'd like to do and the geographies of the company where you do it?

知道了。好的。所以至少沒有更多的逆風。然後你又迎來了淨招聘的好年頭。我認為去年大約有 3,000 人，而 2021 年為 6,000 人。想知道您對 2023 年的展望是什麼。您是否期望看到實質性的淨招聘？也許你想做什麼以及你做這件事的公司的地理位置有什麼顏色？

Sure. Thanks, Andrew. A lot of the hiring we did last year, some of it was connected to the mid- and back-office, some of the work, the investments that we're making to drive some efficiency. Some of it, we brought some contractors on as full-time employees. It was the right economic trade and the rate trade from a service perspective as well. But we're always active in the market in trying to bring talent that will make us better and stronger.

當然。謝謝，安德魯。我們去年進行的很多招聘，其中一些與中後台有關，一些工作，我們為提高效率而進行的投資。其中一些，我們聘請了一些承包商作為全職員工。從服務的角度來看，這是正確的經濟貿易和利率貿易。但我們始終積極參與市場，努力引進能讓我們變得更好、更強大的人才。

And I mentioned earlier, we feel very, very good about our brand in the market as an employer. We work very, very hard at it. And voluntary turnovers in all of our businesses at or below historical levels. And so we feel terrific. Our colleagues are highly engaged. And it's a complex operating environment, and they're delivering exceptional value to our clients. We'll hire less this year than we did last year or the year before. But again, it's not only the number, the raw number. It's who's on the team and making sure that we're aligning our talent with our clients' needs.

我之前提到過，作為雇主，我們對我們在市場上的品牌感覺非常非常好。我們非常非常努力地工作。我們所有業務的自願離職率都處於或低於歷史水平。所以我們感覺很棒。我們的同事非常敬業。這是一個複雜的運營環境，他們正在為我們的客戶提供卓越的價值。我們今年的招聘人數將少於去年或前年。但同樣，這不僅僅是數字，而是原始數字。這是團隊中的成員，並確保我們的人才與客戶的需求保持一致。

And our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Brian Meredith。

A couple of questions here. First, I want to dig into Oliver Wyman just a little bit more here. Mark, I think you said that sales activity looks like it picked up a little bit in the second quarter. So we'll see a little better. I'm assuming that's because you've got such a good financial services practice at Oliver Wyman, you're seeing some spillover from what's going on with the banking crisis. That's one.

這裡有幾個問題。首先，我想在這裡更深入地了解奧緯諮詢。馬克，我想你說過第二季度的銷售活動似乎有所回升。所以我們會看到更好的。我假設那是因為你在 Oliver Wyman 擁有如此良好的金融服務實踐，你看到了銀行業危機正在發生的一些溢出效應。那是一個。

And also, if I think about (inaudible) are you seeing any slowdown in kind of corporate spending you're thinking -- or corporations thinking about, kind of a slowdown here? And is that maybe why you're a little more cautious about what potentially could happen here going forward?

而且，如果我考慮（聽不清）你是否看到你正在考慮的公司支出有所放緩 - 或者公司正在考慮，這裡有點放緩？這就是為什麼你對未來可能發生的事情更加謹慎的原因嗎？

Thanks, Brian. Look, we have a little less visibility into the pipeline at Oliver Wyman. That's historically been the case with that business. But as Mark pointed, recent sales activity has been better. We appreciate the advertisement on our FI practice. We have a great team of people there. But Nick, maybe you could add a little more color.

謝謝，布萊恩。看，我們對 Oliver Wyman 的管道的了解程度較低。從歷史上看，該業務就是這種情況。但正如馬克指出的那樣，最近的銷售活動有所好轉。我們感謝有關我們 FI 實踐的廣告。我們那裡有一支很棒的團隊。但是尼克，也許你可以添加更多顏色。

Yes. Thank you, Brian. It's a very good question. I think what we've really seen is uncertainty more than economic decline. A lot of what we do is a matter of choice. But John made a comment with respect to Mercer earlier, that some of those choices become harder not to take right now with lots of questions changing, lots of important problems to solve.

是的。謝謝你，布萊恩。這是一個很好的問題。我認為我們真正看到的是不確定性，而不是經濟衰退。我們所做的很多事情都是選擇的問題。但 John 早些時候對 Mercer 發表了評論，隨著許多問題的變化，許多重要問題的解決，其中一些選擇現在變得更難不採取。

I think a number of our clients, particularly in the U.S., have been pausing because of the uncertainty. We don't necessarily see that as a big downward step. But they're not quite sure if they're investing for growth or they're investing for cost. And to some extent, the financial services of the banking turmoil extends that period of uncertainty. But we're extremely proud of our market-leading financial services practice in Oliver Wyman.

我認為我們的許多客戶，尤其是在美國的客戶，由於不確定性而一直在暫停。我們不一定認為這是一個很大的下降步驟。但他們不太確定他們是在為增長而投資，還是在為成本而投資。在某種程度上，銀行業動蕩的金融服務延長了那段不確定的時期。但我們為奧緯諮詢市場領先的金融服務實踐感到無比自豪。

We are, of course, very engaged in that global banking situation, whether that's supporting banks on the management of their funding, deposit and interest rate risks; working with involved actors in the sale and purchase of assets; preparing some of the restructuring that will no doubt be coming. And when we think in the medium to longer term, that will continue to fuel the growth of that excellent practice.

當然，我們非常關注全球銀行業形勢，無論是支持銀行管理其資金、存款和利率風險；與相關參與者合作進行資產買賣；準備一些毫無疑問即將到來的重組。當我們從中長期考慮時，這將繼續推動這種優秀實踐的發展。

Brian, do you have a follow-up?

布賴恩，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes, absolutely. Just wanted to quickly chat a little bit about commercial property insurance pricing, what's going on in that market. You mentioned good strong price increases in the first quarter. Are we seeing kind of an acceleration in that in the second quarter as some of these carriers kind of adjust to higher reinsurance costs? And could that potentially be a little bit of a tailwind for you all as we look into the remainder of the year?

是的，一點沒錯。只是想快速聊聊商業財產保險定價，以及該市場的情況。你提到第一季度價格強勁上漲。隨著其中一些運營商對更高的再保險成本進行調整，我們是否在第二季度看到這種加速？當我們展望今年剩餘時間時，這對你們所有人來說可能會有點順風嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Brian. I don't think our clients at Marsh think it's a good strong increase in pricing. But yes, we did observe a higher rate change in property as we expected in the first quarter, given what happened late in the year and what we saw in the reinsurance market at January 1.

是的。謝謝，布萊恩。我不認為我們在達信的客戶認為這是價格的強勁增長。但是，是的，考慮到今年年底發生的事情以及我們在 1 月 1 日在再保險市場上看到的情況，我們確實觀察到第一季度的房地產利率變化高於我們的預期。

So what I would say is, broadly speaking, it's a challenging market for our insurance clients at Marsh. Inflation broadly is driving a higher cost of risk, the frequency of weather-related losses, as you point out. And we did see U.S. retail market -- property market begin to react to some of the reinsurance market changes as well.

所以我要說的是，從廣義上講，對於達信的保險客戶來說，這是一個充滿挑戰的市場。正如您所指出的，通貨膨脹總體上正在推動更高的風險成本，即與天氣相關的損失的頻率。我們確實看到美國零售市場——房地產市場也開始對再保險市場的一些變化做出反應。

But Mark, maybe you could talk about pricing in the market broadly and in property?

但是馬克，也許你可以談談廣泛市場和房地產的定價？

Yes, of course. Well, John, as you said, it's not a good day for our clients. And our focus is on obviously getting the best deals for our clients and making sure that they stay with us and they understand we're driving innovation where we can. It's the 22nd quarter of consecutive rate increases. You highlighted property, and that did, look, as that picked up momentum again into Q1. It accelerated from 7% rate increases. We reported in Q4 '22 to 10% this year. And in addition to that, from a premium perspective, there's clear inflation and exposure growth as well. So real pain for the clients.

是的當然。好吧，約翰，正如你所說，今天對我們的客戶來說不是個好日子。我們的重點顯然是為我們的客戶獲得最好的交易，並確保他們留在我們身邊，並且他們明白我們正在盡我們所能推動創新。這是連續第 22 個季度加息。你強調了房地產，看起來確實如此，因為它在第一季度再次回升勢頭。它從 7% 的增長率加速。我們在 22 年第 4 季度報告了今年的 10%。除此之外，從保費的角度來看，還有明顯的通貨膨脹和風險敞口增長。對客戶來說真的很痛苦。

It doesn't necessarily flow through to our business as a good chunk of that high-risk business with high cat business is fee-based. And so it provides us stability there. Other lines of business is being driven by social inflation. Casualty would have been higher, but the workers' compensation, which is pretty flat. And it's pretty well around the world.

它不一定會流向我們的業務，因為高風險業務中有很大一部分是收費的。因此，它為我們提供了穩定性。其他業務線正受到社會通貨膨脹的推動。傷亡人數本來會更高，但工人們的賠償卻相當平淡。而且它在世界各地都很好。

The one area where there has been deceleration in price increases has been in the financial product areas, not just the SPAC and de-SPAC, but also some declines in D&O pricing, driven by the fact, there are 20 new carriers that have come into the marketplace over the last year. But actually, the professional intensity lines are robust, and that's really a function of a prior year [accident] deterioration in the professional lines as social inflation drives that. So it's a bit of a mixed picture. But that the highlight in terms of growth has been property, and the rest is seeming to stabilize a little bit.

價格上漲放緩的一個領域是金融產品領域，不僅僅是 SPAC 和 de-SPAC，而且 D&O 定價也有所下降，這是由於有 20 家新運營商進入去年的市場。但實際上，專業強度線是穩健的，這實際上是前一年[事故]專業線惡化的結果，因為社會通脹推動了這一點。所以這有點喜憂參半。但增長方面的亮點一直是房地產，其餘的似乎有點穩定。

And Brian, maybe just one last point on the retail property market. A lot of the retail wind and quake risk is from February 1 or even March 1 through the 1st of June. And so really just beginning to see what's happening from a risk appetite and from a marketplace perspective. So we're in the middle of the story right now. Thank you.

布賴恩，也許只是零售物業市場的最後一點。很多零售風和地震風險是從 2 月 1 日甚至 3 月 1 日到 6 月 1 日。因此，實際上才剛剛開始從風險偏好和市場的角度來看正在發生的事情。所以我們現在正處於故事的中間。謝謝。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan, for any closing remarks.

謝謝。我現在想將電話轉回 Marsh McLennan 總裁兼首席執行官 John Doyle 的任何結束語。

All right. Thank you, Andrew, and thank you all for joining us on the call this morning. In closing, I want to thank our over 85,000 colleagues for their hard work and dedication. I also want to thank our clients for their continued support. And thank you all very much. I look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

好的。謝謝你，安德魯，感謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。最後，我要感謝我們 85,000 多名同事的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我還要感謝我們的客戶一直以來的支持。非常感謝大家。我期待著下個季度再次與您交談。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。