威達信集團 (MMC) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Marsh McLennan's earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded.

歡迎來到 Marsh McLennan 的收益電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。

Fourth quarter 2022 financial results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at marshmclennan.com.

今天上午早些時候發布了 2022 年第四季度財務業績和補充信息。它們可在公司網站 marshmclennan.com 上找到。

Please note that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K, all of which are available on the Marsh McLennan website.

請注意，今天發表的言論可能包括前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，多種因素可能導致實際結果與此類陳述所設想的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素的更詳細討論，請參閱我們本季度的收益發布和我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，包括我們最近的 10-K 表格，所有這些都可以在 Marsh McLennan 網站上找到。

During the call today, we may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release. (Operator Instructions)

在今天的電話會議中，我們還可能討論某些非公認會計原則的財務措施。有關這些措施與最可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬，請參閱今天的收益發布中的時間表。 （操作員說明）

I'll now turn this over to Dan Glaser, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.

我現在將把它交給 Marsh McLennan 總裁兼首席執行官 Dan Glaser。

Thank you, Andrew. Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter results reported earlier today. I'm Dan Glaser, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan. Joining me on the call today is John Doyle, our Group President and COO; Mark McGivney, our CFO; and the CEOs of our businesses: Martin South of Marsh; Dean Klisura of Guy Carpenter; Martine Ferland of Mercer; and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman. Also with us this morning is Sarah Dewitt, Head of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，安德魯。早上好，感謝您加入我們討論今天早些時候報告的第三季度業績。我是丹·格拉澤，Marsh McLennan 總裁兼首席執行官。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的集團總裁兼首席運營官 John Doyle；我們的首席財務官 Mark McGivney；以及我們業務的首席執行官：Martin South of Marsh； Guy Carpenter 的 Dean Klisura；美世的 Martine Ferland；和奧緯諮詢的尼克·斯圖德。今天早上與我們在一起的還有投資者關係主管莎拉·德威特（Sarah Dewitt）。

Today is my 60th earnings call at Marsh McLennan, and 40th as CEO. After 10 years as President and CEO, I will be retiring from Marsh McLennan at the end of the year. Leading this firm over the past decade has been the honor of a lifetime.

今天是我在 Marsh McLennan 的第 60 次財報電話會議，也是我擔任 CEO 的第 40 次。在擔任總裁兼首席執行官 10 年後，我將於年底從 Marsh McLennan 退休。在過去十年中領導這家公司一直是一生的榮幸。

Before I jump into our results, I'd like to say how pleased I am about the leadership succession we announced. The appointment of John Doyle as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1 continues to underscore Marsh McLennan's deep (inaudible) of industry-leading talent. During John's tenure as President and CEO of Marsh, he drove exceptional revenue and earnings growth. And as Group President and COO, John is finding new ways to harness the capabilities of Marsh McLennan across our business, accelerating impact for clients, colleagues and communities. John has been an indispensable partner to me and the other members of our Executive Committee in shaping and executing our strategy. He knows our business well, and is focused on delivering outstanding performance for clients and shareholders. I am confident that our extraordinary success will continue under John's leadership.

在我進入我們的結果之前，我想說我對我們宣布的領導層繼任感到非常高興。任命 John Doyle 為總裁兼首席執行官，自 1 月 1 日起生效，這繼續突顯了 Marsh McLennan 深厚的（聽不清）行業領先人才。在約翰擔任達信總裁兼首席執行官期間，他推動了非凡的收入和盈利增長。作為集團總裁兼首席運營官，John 正在尋找新的方法來利用 Marsh McLennan 在我們整個業務中的能力，加速對客戶、同事和社區的影響。在製定和執行我們的戰略時，約翰一直是我和我們執行委員會其他成員不可或缺的合作夥伴。他非常了解我們的業務，並專注於為客戶和股東提供出色的業績。我相信，在約翰的領導下，我們將繼續取得非凡的成功。

Marsh McLennan's third quarter results demonstrated strength on strength. Top line momentum continued across our business, extending the best run of quarterly underlying growth in over 2 decades. We generated strong top and bottom line results despite difficult year-over-year comparison.

Marsh McLennan 第三季度的業績證明了實力。我們的業務繼續保持收入增長勢頭，延續了 20 多年來的最佳季度基本增長。儘管很難進行同比比較，但我們仍取得了強勁的頂線和底線結果。

Underlying growth of 8% in the quarter reflects considerable strength across our organization. It represents the sixth consecutive quarter of 8% or higher top line growth, building on 13% growth a year ago. Adjusted operating income of $851 million was a third quarter record, and grew 12% on top of 19% in the third quarter of 2021. Adjusted EPS growth of 9% is excellent, especially given costs related to our strategic talent investments, the rebound of T&E and 32% growth in the third quarter of 2021. We completed $500 million of share repurchases in the third quarter, bringing year-to-date repurchases to $1.6 billion, which is higher than any full year level of repurchases in our history.

本季度 8% 的基本增長反映了我們整個組織的強大實力。它代表連續第六個季度實現 8% 或更高的收入增長，而一年前的增長為 13%。調整後的營業收入為 8.51 億美元，創下第三季度的紀錄，在 2021 年第三季度的 19% 的基礎上增長了 12%。調整後的每股收益增長 9% 非常出色，特別是考慮到與我們的戰略人才投資相關的成本， 2021 年第三季度的 T&E 和 32% 的增長。我們在第三季度完成了 5 億美元的股票回購，使年初至今的回購達到 16 億美元，高於我們歷史上任何全年回購水平。

While the economic and geopolitical backdrop is uncertain, we have a proven track record of being resilient through cycles and are well positioned. Overall, our third quarter performance highlights the strength of Marsh McLennan, the critical nature of what we do for our clients and the unmatched expertise of our colleagues.

儘管經濟和地緣政治背景尚不確定，但我們擁有在周期中保持彈性的良好記錄，並且處於有利地位。總體而言，我們第三季度的業績突出了 Marsh McLennan 的實力、我們為客戶所做的工作的關鍵性質以及我們同事無與倫比的專業知識。

With that, let me turn it over to John.

有了這個，讓我把它交給約翰。

Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，丹，大家早上好。

I am honored to become Marsh McLennan's next President and CEO, and grateful for the trust and confidence Dan and the Board have placed in me to lead this exceptional company. I'm eager to work with our colleagues in realizing new possibilities to serve our clients, create value for our shareholders and support our communities.

我很榮幸成為 Marsh McLennan 的下一任總裁兼首席執行官，並感謝 Dan 和董事會對我領導這家卓越公司的信任和信心。我渴望與我們的同事合作，實現為客戶服務、為股東創造價值和支持社區的新可能性。

I'm pleased with our third quarter results. We delivered strong growth despite a macro backdrop that is becoming more uncertain. We are delivering solutions to help clients navigate volatile economic, geopolitical and risk landscape. As we discussed last quarter, there are aspects of the current environment that remains supportive of our growth. Higher inflation offsets lower real GDP growth, rising interest rates boost our fiduciary income, and the challenging insurance market drives a flight to quality. We also have a track record of success and being resilient through cycles, and I believe Marsh McLennan is well positioned to perform.

我對我們第三季度的業績感到滿意。儘管宏觀背景變得更加不確定，但我們仍實現了強勁增長。我們正在提供解決方案，幫助客戶應對動蕩的經濟、地緣政治和風險環境。正如我們上個季度所討論的，當前環境的某些方面仍然支持我們的增長。較高的通貨膨脹抵消了較低的實際 GDP 增長，利率上升提高了我們的信託收入，而充滿挑戰的保險市場推動了對質量的追求。我們也有成功的記錄，並且在周期中保持彈性，我相信 Marsh McLennan 能夠很好地表現。

I would like to take a moment to discuss Hurricane Ian, just had a devastating impact on the people and communities in Florida. Ian has the potential to be the costliest insured event in Florida's history and the second most damaging insured loss of all time. We are working with insurers to help our clients receive much-needed support. Insurance has a critical role to play in building homes and restoring shuttered businesses. Our work reinforces Marsh McLennan's purpose to be there in the moments that matter for our clients and communities. Ian's Category 4 strength, incredible size and slow pace resulted in tremendous damage, the cost of which is exacerbated by the effects of coastal development, the escalation of property values, general inflation and persistent supply chain challenges.

我想花點時間討論一下颶風伊恩，它剛剛對佛羅里達州的人民和社區造成了毀滅性的影響。伊恩有可能成為佛羅里達州歷史上最昂貴的保險事故，以及有史以來第二大破壞性保險損失。我們正在與保險公司合作，幫助我們的客戶獲得急需的支持。保險在建造房屋和恢復關閉的企業方面發揮著關鍵作用。我們的工作強化了 Marsh McLennan 的宗旨，即在對我們的客戶和社區至關重要的時刻出現。 Ian 的 4 類實力、令人難以置信的規模和緩慢的步伐造成了巨大的破壞，沿海開發的影響、財產價值的升級、普遍的通貨膨脹和持續的供應鏈挑戰加劇了損失。

While the ultimate insured loss won't be known for some time, the impact on an already stressed property market will be significant. At mid-year reinsurance renewals, property market is already exhibiting strains. Following Ian, the property cap market is likely to tighten even further and perhaps see a significant supply-demand imbalance. We are harnessing our collective expertise, scale and capabilities to bring solutions to help our clients navigate this complex risk environment.

雖然最終的保險損失在一段時間內不會知道，但對已經緊張的房地產市場的影響將是巨大的。在年中再保險續保時，房地產市場已經出現壓力。繼伊恩之後，房地產上限市場可能會進一步收緊，並且可能會出現嚴重的供需失衡。我們正在利用我們的集體專業知識、規模和能力來提供解決方案，幫助我們的客戶駕馭這一複雜的風險環境。

Turning to our third quarter financial performance, we generated strong results. Adjusted EPS of $1.18 is up 9% versus a year ago, which is impressive on top of 32% growth in the third quarter of 2021. Total revenue increased 4% versus a year ago and rose 8% on an underlying basis, with 9% in RIS and 8% in Consulting. This is a terrific result, especially considering the prior year third quarter underlying growth of 13%.

談到我們第三季度的財務業績，我們取得了強勁的業績。調整後每股收益為 1.18 美元，較去年同期增長 9%，在 2021 年第三季度增長 32% 的基礎上令人印象深刻。總收入較去年同期增長 4%，基本增長 8%，增長 9%在 RIS 和 8% 在諮詢。這是一個了不起的結果，尤其是考慮到去年第三季度的基本增長率為 13%。

Marsh had an excellent quarter. Growth was 8%, reflecting new business and strong renewal growth. Guy Carpenter grew 10% in the quarter, continuing its string of terrific results. Mercer grew 5% in the quarter despite capital market headwinds, and Oliver Wyman grew 13%, the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

馬什有一個出色的季度。增長率為 8%，反映了新業務和強勁的更新增長。 Guy Carpenter 在本季度增長了 10%，繼續其一系列出色的業績。儘管資本市場逆風，美世本季度仍增長 5%，奧緯諮詢增長 13%，連續第七個季度實現兩位數增長。

The third quarter saw adjusted operating income growth of 12% and our adjusted operating margin expanded 110 basis points year-over-year. Overall, I am proud of our third quarter performance, which demonstrates the strength and resilience of our business.

第三季度調整後營業收入增長 12%，調整後營業利潤率同比增長 110 個基點。總體而言，我為我們第三季度的表現感到自豪，這展示了我們業務的實力和韌性。

Given our strong third quarter and year-to-date performance, we are on track for an outstanding year. We expect to generate high single-digit growth, underlying revenue, solid growth adjusted EPS and to report margin expansion 15th consecutive year. We are focused, aligned and succeeding together as our results demonstrate.

鑑於我們第三季度和年初至今的強勁表現，我們有望迎來出色的一年。我們預計將產生高個位數增長、基本收入、穩健增長調整後的每股收益，並連續第 15 年實現利潤率增長。正如我們的結果所表明的那樣，我們專注、一致並共同取得成功。

Before I turn it over to Mark, I'd like to say a few words about Dan. During Dan's tenure at the helm of Marsh McLennan, the company has been transformed. Our revenue has nearly doubled, our adjusted EPS has more than tripled, and our market cap has quadrupled. Our scale and capabilities have been enhanced, and our talent is unmatched. Dan led our expansion into new client segments and launched Marsh McLennan Agency, which has grown to $2.5 billion of annual revenue, closed 100 acquisitions just over a decade. Dan also successfully led the company's $5.6 billion acquisition, JLT in 2019, the largest in our history.

在我把它交給馬克之前，我想對丹說幾句。在 Dan 掌舵 Marsh McLennan 期間，公司發生了轉變。我們的收入幾乎翻了一番，調整後的每股收益翻了三倍多，市值翻了兩番。我們的規模和能力得到了增強，我們的人才是無與倫比的。 Dan 帶領我們向新的客戶群擴張，並成立了 Marsh McLennan Agency，該公司的年收入已增長到 25 億美元，在短短十年內完成了 100 次收購。 Dan 還成功領導了公司在 2019 年以 56 億美元收購 JLT，這是我們歷史上最大的一筆收購。

Most importantly, Dan has led our firm with vision, courage and integrity. Faced with the consequences of the pandemic, his values-first leadership ensured that the tough choices were made to safeguard our colleagues, to protect jobs and incomes, deliver for clients, bolster liquidity and still produce significant growth. His decision were an inspiration to our colleagues and an example to the broader business community. Our financial performance speaks for itself, with Marsh McLennan's total shareholder return more than doubling the S&P 500 during Dan's stewardship as CEO. Less visible but even more significant is the sense of pride and the culture that Dan has instilled in the firm. Under his leadership, we are not only a great stock but a great company. We owe him our gratitude.

最重要的是，Dan 以遠見、勇氣和正直率領我們公司。面對大流行的後果，他以價值觀為先的領導確保做出艱難的選擇，以保護我們的同事、保護工作和收入、為客戶提供服務、增強流動性並仍然產生顯著增長。他的決定是對我們同事的鼓舞，也是對更廣泛的商界的榜樣。我們的財務業績不言而喻，在 Dan 擔任首席執行官期間，Marsh McLennan 的股東總回報是標準普爾 500 指數的兩倍多。不那麼明顯但更重要的是丹灌輸給公司的自豪感和文化。在他的領導下，我們不僅是一隻偉大的股票，而且是一家偉大的公司。我們欠他我們的謝意。

So on behalf of our 86,000 colleagues, I thank Dan for his leadership. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Mark for further detail on our financial results and a discussion of our outlook for the rest of 2022.

因此，我代表我們的 86,000 名同事感謝 Dan 的領導。有了這個，我將把電話轉給馬克，以進一步詳細了解我們的財務業績，並討論我們對 2022 年剩餘時間的展望。

Thank you, John, and good morning.

謝謝你，約翰，早上好。

As Dan and John mentioned, our performance in the third quarter reflects continued momentum across our business, we saw another quarter of strong underlying revenue growth, meaningful earnings growth despite tough revenue and expense comparisons.

正如 Dan 和 John 所說，我們在第三季度的表現反映了我們業務的持續增長勢頭，儘管收入和費用比較艱難，但我們看到了另一個季度強勁的潛在收入增長和有意義的盈利增長。

Consolidated revenue increased 4% to $4.8 billion and reflected underlying growth of 8%. Operating income was $791 million, adjusted operating income was $851 million. Our adjusted operating margin was 19.6%, up 110 basis points from last year. The increase was driven by modest operating leverage and a benefit from foreign exchange. We generated GAAP EPS of $1.08 in the quarter, adjusted EPS of $1.18, up 9% year-over-year.

合併收入增長 4% 至 48 億美元，反映了 8% 的基本增長。營業收入為7.91億美元，調整後營業收入為8.51億美元。我們調整後的營業利潤率為 19.6%，比去年上升 110 個基點。這一增長是由適度的經營槓桿和外匯收益推動的。我們在本季度產生了 1.08 美元的 GAAP 每股收益，調整後每股收益為 1.18 美元，同比增長 9%。

For the first 9 months of 2022, underlying revenue growth was 9%, our adjusted operating income rose 11% to $3.7 billion, our adjusted operating margin increased 60 basis points to 25.6%, and our adjusted EPS increased 12% to $5.38.

2022 年前 9 個月，基本收入增長 9%，調整後營業收入增長 11% 至 37 億美元，調整後營業利潤率增長 60 個基點至 25.6%，調整後每股收益增長 12% 至 5.38 美元。

Looking at Risk & Insurance Services, third quarter revenue was $2.8 billion, up 6% compared with the year ago or 9% on an underlying basis. Operating income increased 32% to $529 million. Adjusted operating income increased 20% to $562 million, and our adjusted operating margin expanded 200 basis points to 22.4%.

從風險和保險服務來看，第三季度收入為 28 億美元，與去年同期相比增長 6%，或基本增長 9%。營業收入增長 32% 至 5.29 億美元。調整後的營業收入增長 20% 至 5.62 億美元，調整後的營業利潤率擴大 200 個基點至 22.4%。

For the first 9 months of the year, revenue was $9.7 billion, underlying growth, 10%. Adjusted operating income for the first 9 months increased 13% to $2.8 billion, with a margin of 31.1%, up 80 basis points from the same period in 2021.

今年前 9 個月，收入為 97 億美元，基本增長 10%。前 9 個月調整後的營業收入增長 13% 至 28 億美元，利潤率為 31.1%，比 2021 年同期增長 80 個基點。

At Marsh, revenue in the quarter was $2.5 billion, 5% up from a year ago. Revenue growth of 8% on an underlying basis supported by strong retention and (inaudible). U.S. and Canada had 5% underlying growth, a solid result considering a 16% growth in the third quarter of 2021 but included the benefit of significant M&A and SPAC-related activity. International underlying growth was 11%. Latin America grew 15%, Asia Pacific was up 14%, EMEA was up 9%.

在達信，本季度收入為 25 億美元，比一年前增長 5%。在強勁的留存率和（聽不清）的支持下，基本收入增長了 8%。美國和加拿大的基本增長率為 5%，考慮到 2021 年第三季度 16% 的增長率，這是一個穩健的結果，但其中包括重大併購和 SPAC 相關活動的好處。國際基本增長率為 11%。拉丁美洲增長 15%，亞太地區增長 14%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區增長 9%。

First 9 months of the year, Marsh's revenue was $7.8 billion, underlying growth of 9%. U.S. and Canada was up 8%, International, up 10%.

今年前 9 個月，達信的收入為 78 億美元，基本增長 9%。美國和加拿大上漲 8%，國際上漲 10%。

Guy Carpenter's third quarter revenue was $328 million, up 7% on an underlying basis, reflecting solid production and retention. Guy Carpenter has now achieved underlying revenue growth of 7% or higher in 6 of the last 7 quarters. For the first 9 months of the year, Guy Carpenter generated $1.8 billion of revenue and 10% underlying growth.

Guy Carpenter 的第三季度收入為 3.28 億美元，基本增長 7%，反映了穩健的生產和保留。 Guy Carpenter 在過去 7 個季度中有 6 個季度實現了 7% 或更高的基本收入增長。今年前 9 個月，Guy Carpenter 創造了 18 億美元的收入和 10% 的基本增長。

In the Consulting segment, revenue of $2 billion was up 1% from a year ago or 8% on an underlying basis, building on 12% in the third quarter of 2021. Operating income decreased 14% to $350 million, reflecting a one-time noteworthy benefit a year ago. Adjusted operating income increased 3% to $362 million, where solid earnings growth was masked by a drag from foreign exchange. The adjusted operating margin expanded 20 basis points to 19.1%.

在諮詢部門，20 億美元的收入比去年同期增長 1%，或在 2021 年第三季度增長 12% 的基礎上增長 8%。營業收入下降 14% 至 3.5 億美元，反映了一次性一年前的顯著收益。調整後的營業收入增長 3% 至 3.62 億美元，穩健的盈利增長被外匯拖累所掩蓋。調整後的營業利潤率擴大 20 個基點至 19.1%。

Consulting generated revenue of $6 billion for the first 9 months of 2022, an underlying growth of 9%. Adjusted operating income for the first 9 months of the year increased 5% to $1.1 billion, the adjusted operating margin was 19.6%, flat versus the third quarter of 2021.

諮詢在 2022 年前 9 個月創造了 60 億美元的收入，基本增長了 9%。今年前 9 個月調整後的營業收入增長 5% 至 11 億美元，調整後的營業利潤率為 19.6%，與 2021 年第三季度持平。

Mercer's revenue was $1.3 billion in the third quarter, up 5% on an underlying basis, which is impressive given the impact of market declines on our investments. Career grew 15% on an underlying basis, the sixth consecutive quarter of mid to high-teens growth. We continue to see strong demand for solutions in workforce transformation as well as compensation and rewards. Health underlying growth was also excellent at 10% in the quarter, reflecting strength across all geographies. Wealth decreased 1% on an underlying basis due to declines in both equity and fixed income markets. This market impact represented a 2% headwind to Mercer's overall growth for the quarter. However, solid demand and defined benefits helped mitigate [define invest.]

美世第三季度的收入為 13 億美元，基本增長 5%，考慮到市場下滑對我們投資的影響，這令人印象深刻。職業生涯基本增長 15%，連續第六個季度保持中高水平增長。我們繼續看到對勞動力轉型以及薪酬和獎勵解決方案的強勁需求。本季度的健康基礎增長也非常出色，達到 10%，反映了所有地區的實力。由於股票和固定收益市場的下跌，財富在基礎上下降了 1%。這一市場影響對美世本季度的整體增長構成了 2% 的阻力。然而，穩定的需求和確定的收益有助於減輕 [確定投資]。

Our assets under management was $318 billion at the end of the third quarter, down 8% sequentially and 20% from the third quarter of last year, due entirely to market declines in foreign exchange. For the first 9 months of the year, revenue at Mercer was $4 billion, up 6% from underlying growth.

第三季度末，我們管理的資產為 3180 億美元，環比下降 8%，比去年第三季度下降 20%，這完全是由於外匯市場下跌。今年前 9 個月，美世的收入為 40 億美元，較基本增長增長 6%。

Oliver Wyman's strong momentum continued. Revenue in the third quarter was $667 million, an increase of 13% on an underlying growth. This comes on top of 25% of the third quarter last year and reflects continued strong demand across most geographies against solutions. For the first 9 months of the year, revenue at Oliver Wyman was $2 billion, increase of 15% on underlying growth.

奧緯諮詢的強勁勢頭仍在繼續。第三季度的收入為 6.67 億美元，在基本增長的基礎上增長了 13%。這是在去年第三季度的 25% 的基礎上增加的，反映了大多數地區對解決方案的持續強勁需求。今年前 9 個月，奧緯諮詢的收入為 20 億美元，在基本增長的基礎上增長了 15%。

Adjusted corporate expense was $73 million in the third quarter. Based on our current outlook, we expect approximately $80 million for the fourth quarter. Foreign exchange had an immaterial effect on our adjusted EPS in the third quarter, although year-to-date, you can assess a headwind to (inaudible). Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect FX to be a headwind of $0.07 in the fourth quarter. Our other net benefit credit was $57 million. For the full year 2022, we expect our other net benefit credit be around $230 million.

第三季度調整後的公司費用為 7300 萬美元。根據我們目前的展望，我們預計第四季度約為 8000 萬美元。外匯對我們第三季度調整後的每股收益產生了非實質性影響，儘管年初至今，您可以評估逆風（聽不清）。假設匯率保持在當前水平，我們預計第四季度外匯將是 0.07 美元的逆風。我們的其他淨福利抵免額為 5700 萬美元。對於 2022 年全年，我們預計我們的其他淨福利抵免額約為 2.3 億美元。

We reported an investment loss of $1 million in the third quarter on a GAAP basis. On an adjusted basis, we had investment income of $3 million. Interest expense in the third quarter was $118 million compared to $107 million in the third quarter of 2021. Based on our current forecast, we expect interest expense of $121 million in the fourth quarter. Our adjusted effective tax rate in the third quarter was 24.6% compared to 24.4% in the third quarter of last year, included a modest net benefit of discrete but (inaudible). Excluding discrete items, our adjusted effective tax rate was 25% for the quarter. When we give forward guidance around our tax rate, not project discrete items, which is positive or negative. Based on the current environment, reasonable to assume an adjusted effective tax rate of 25% for the full year 2022.

根據公認會計原則，我們在第三季度報告了 100 萬美元的投資損失。經調整後，我們的投資收入為 300 萬美元。第三季度的利息支出為 1.18 億美元，而 2021 年第三季度為 1.07 億美元。根據我們目前的預測，我們預計第四季度的利息支出為 1.21 億美元。我們第三季度調整後的有效稅率為 24.6%，而去年第三季度為 24.4%，其中包括適度的離散但（聽不清）的淨收益。不包括離散項目，我們本季度調整後的有效稅率為 25%。當我們圍繞我們的稅率提供前瞻性指導時，而不是預測離散項目，這是積極的還是消極的。基於當前環境，合理假設 2022 年全年調整後有效稅率為 25%。

Turning to capital management and our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with total debt of $11.4 billion. Our next scheduled debt maturity on March of 2023 with $350 million of senior note [matures]. Our cash position at the end of the third quarter was $802 million. Uses of cash in the quarter totaled $931 million, included $293 million of dividends, $138 million for acquisitions, $500 million for share repurchases. For the first 9 months, uses of cash totaled $2.9 billion, included $840 million for dividends, $411 million for acquisitions, $1.6 billion of share repurchases.

轉向資本管理和我們的資產負債表。我們在本季度末的總債務為 114 億美元。我們的下一個預定債務到期日為 2023 年 3 月，其中 3.5 億美元的優先票據 [到期]。我們在第三季度末的現金頭寸為 8.02 億美元。本季度現金使用總額為 9.31 億美元，其中包括 2.93 億美元的股息、1.38 億美元的收購、5 億美元的股票回購。前 9 個月，現金使用總額為 29 億美元，其中包括 8.4 億美元的股息、4.11 億美元的收購、16 億美元的股票回購。

We continue to expect to deploy approximately $4 billion of cap in 2022 plus dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases.

我們繼續預計在 2022 年部署約 40 億美元的上限，外加股息、收購和股票回購。

Overall, we remain on track for a terrific 2022. For the full year, we expect to generate high single-digit growth in underlying revenue, solid growth in adjusted EPS and to report margin expansion of 15 consecutive (inaudible).

總體而言，我們仍有望實現 2022 年的輝煌。全年，我們預計基礎收入將實現高個位數增長，調整後每股收益穩健增長，並報告連續 15 年的利潤率增長（聽不清）。

And with that, I'm happy to turn it back.

有了這個，我很高興把它轉回來。

Thank you, Mark. Before we open up the call for Q&A, I just want to say it has been a great privilege to lead this firm and work side-by-side with smart, creative and dedicated people. I am immensely proud of our colleagues and what we have accomplished. Together, we've grown, innovated and persevered. We launched and built MMA, expanded our capabilities in combination with JLT, and demonstrated resilience in the face of a financial crisis and global pandemic. We emerged as a better and stronger firm by relying on each other, living our values, supporting our communities and staying focused on clients. I have always believed the greatness of our companies is in how we deliver in the big moments and the small.

謝謝你，馬克。在我們開始問答之前，我只想說，能夠領導這家公司並與聰明、有創造力和敬業的人並肩工作是一種莫大的榮幸。我為我們的同事和我們所取得的成就感到無比自豪。我們一起成長、創新和堅持。我們推出並建立了 MMA，與 JLT 相結合擴展了我們的能力，並在金融危機和全球大流行病面前展現了韌性。我們通過相互依賴、踐行我們的價值觀、支持我們的社區和專注於客戶，成為一家更好、更強大的公司。我一直相信我們公司的偉大之處在於我們如何在重要時刻和小時刻交付。

Under John's leadership, I know Marsh McLennan will continue to thrive and prosper to make a difference in the moments that matter. There is no one I trust more with the company we've built together, and with the important work ahead.

在 John 的領導下，我知道 Marsh McLennan 將繼續茁壯成長，在關鍵時刻發揮作用。對於我們共同建立的公司以及未來的重要工作，沒有人比我更信任。

I'd like to thank our clients for choosing to do business with us, our shareholders for their continued confidence, most importantly, our colleagues. All that we have achieved is due to their efforts.

我要感謝我們的客戶選擇與我們開展業務，感謝我們的股東對我們的持續信任，最重要的是，我們的同事。我們所取得的一切都歸功於他們的努力。

With that, operator, we are ready to begin Q&A.

有了這個，操作員，我們準備開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

First, on Dan, my congrats to you on your upcoming retirement. It's been great working with you through the years.

首先，關於丹，我祝賀你即將退休。這些年來和你一起工作真是太好了。

My first question is on U.S. and Canada within RIS in the quarter. The growth did slow from where you guys have been trending. I know we've had some good and bad quarters as we've gone through the pandemic and came out. Was there anything specific going on in the third quarter that you want to point out within that business?

我的第一個問題是關於本季度 RIS 內的美國和加拿大。從你們的趨勢來看，增長確實放緩了。我知道當我們經歷了大流行並出來時，我們有一些好的和壞的部分。您想在該業務中指出第三季度發生的任何具體情況嗎？

Thanks, Elyse, and I appreciate your comments. So thank you very much, and I hope to keep in touch with you.

謝謝，愛麗絲，我很感激你的評論。所以非常感謝你，我希望與你保持聯繫。

So let me just start. I'll hand off to Martin in a second. Obviously, Marsh has been doing fantastically well, and U.S., Canada has done well as well. So I would just start by saying that the comparable was pretty tough at 16% growth in U.S., Canada last year.

所以讓我開始吧。我馬上就交給馬丁。顯然，Marsh 一直做得非常好，美國、加拿大也做得很好。因此，我首先要說的是，去年美國和加拿大的可比增長率為 16%，相當艱難。

But Martin, do you want to dig in and give a little bit more color?

但是馬丁，你想深入挖掘並賦予更多色彩嗎？

Thank you, Dan. Yes.

謝謝你，丹。是的。

Just to start, we are very pleased with the strong organic growth of 8% in the quarter, which is on top of 13% in the prior quarter '21. Our growth is strong across all the geographies. EMEA was up 9%, AsiaPac, 14%. LAC was up 15%. 5%, as you noted in the U.S. Overall, good year-to-date growth of 9%.

剛開始，我們對本季度 8% 的強勁有機增長感到非常滿意，高於 21 年上一季度的 13%。我們的增長在所有地區都很強勁。歐洲、中東和非洲地區增長 9%，亞太地區增長 14%。 LAC 上漲 15%。 5%，正如您在美國所指出的那樣。總體而言，今年迄今增長了 9%。

And whilst the 5% is a slowdown, it was 16% in Q3 of '21. When we look at the U.S. over a longer period, the U.S. and Canada is 8% year-to-date and 13% in the full year of '21. Canada is doing extremely well, and the U.S. growth last year in the back half of the year, there was exceptional performance in M&A, SPAC and capital markets activity, and we don't see that repeating in the volatility of the markets going forward. We made fantastic investments last year in producers that are focused on recurring business, so we feel we're very well positioned in the U.S. going forward.

雖然 5% 是放緩，但在 21 年第三季度為 16%。當我們從更長的時期來看美國時，美國和加拿大今年迄今為 8%，21 年全年為 13%。加拿大表現非常好，美國去年下半年的增長，併購、SPAC 和資本市場活動表現出色，我們認為未來市場波動不會重演。去年，我們對專注於經常性業務的生產商進行了出色的投資，因此我們認為我們在美國未來的定位非常好。

So basically, a lot of activity last year in M&A particularly in the back half of last year, which is not repeating and so that's a bit of a headwind overall. So nothing concerning.

所以基本上，去年併購活動特別是在去年下半年，沒有重複，所以總體上有點逆風。所以沒什麼關係。

Do you have a follow-up, Elyse?

你有後續嗎，愛麗絲？

Yes. My follow-up question is on the outlook for Guy Carpenter. You guys mentioned the loss that we saw from Hurricane Ian. From what we've been hearing, it really has the potential to turn on the catastrophe reinsurance market significantly next year. So what are you guys seeing there? And can you just talk about how Guy Carpenter could benefit from a pretty hard reinsurance market in 2023?

是的。我的後續問題是關於 Guy Carpenter 的前景。你們提到了我們從伊恩颶風中看到的損失。從我們聽到的情況來看，它確實有可能在明年顯著開啟巨災再保險市場。那麼你們在那裡看到了什麼？您能否談談 Guy Carpenter 如何從 2023 年相當艱難的再保險市場中受益？

So why don't we start with John just to talk a little bit about the overall market, primary and the reinsurance, and then we'll go to Dean.

那麼，我們為什麼不先從約翰開始談談整體市場、初級和再保險，然後我們會去迪恩。

But John?

但是約翰?

Sure. Thanks, Dan.

當然。謝謝，丹。

So Elyse, the insurance markets remained challenging in the third quarter for our clients. Prices continued to rise in the quarter, although moderating slightly overall from where we were in the second quarter.

因此，Elyse，第三季度的保險市場對我們的客戶來說仍然充滿挑戰。本季度價格繼續上漲，儘管總體上比第二季度略有放緩。

Reinsurance markets, though, are a different -- really a different matter. The property of cat market in particular was tightening in advance of Ian. And then as I noted in my prepared remarks, we're likely headed to a much more challenging January 1 reinsurance renewal.

然而，再保險市場是另一回事——實際上是另一回事。尤其是貓市的財產在伊恩之前收緊。然後正如我在準備好的講話中指出的那樣，我們可能會在 1 月 1 日進行更具挑戰性的再保險續保。

So with that, maybe I'll ask Dean to jump in on some of the details of what we're seeing in the market today.

因此，也許我會請迪恩談談我們今天在市場上看到的一些細節。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

As we look forward, demand for our advice and solutions remains very strong, and we feel we're very well positioned to continue to create value for clients and grow our business moving forward. Demand for reinsurance, including cap properties, is expected to remain very strong as our clients manage volatility and continue to address systemic risk, including cyber. And the impacts of climate change in the emerging perils we're seeing around flood, wildfire and convective storms around the world continue to accelerate and concern our clients.

展望未來，對我們的建議和解決方案的需求仍然非常強勁，我們認為我們已做好準備，繼續為客戶創造價值並推動我們的業務向前發展。隨著我們的客戶管理波動性並繼續應對包括網絡在內的系統性風險，對包括上限資產在內的再保險的需求預計將保持強勁。氣候變化對我們在全球範圍內看到的洪水、野火和對流風暴的新興危險的影響繼續加速並讓我們的客戶感到擔憂。

The impact of Ian will certainly create challenging market conditions at January 1 in the property cat space. But as John noted, a tightening cat market could be a tailwind for Guy Carpenter, but we have a track record of strong growth in any market conditions.

伊恩的影響肯定會在 1 月 1 日在房地產貓領域創造具有挑戰性的市場條件。但正如 John 所指出的，緊縮的貓市場可能對 Guy Carpenter 有利，但我們在任何市場條件下都有強勁增長的記錄。

Terrific.

了不起。

Martin, maybe you could talk a little bit about what we're starting to see in terms of the impact of Ian on the property markets, if -- that Marsh operates in, and then just probably what's happening in pricing in the marketplace?

馬丁，也許你可以談談我們開始看到的伊恩對房地產市場的影響，如果 - 馬什在其中經營，那麼市場定價可能會發生什麼？

Yes. Thanks, John.

是的。謝謝，約翰。

Well, we're into this -- into the 20th consecutive quarter of rate increases across the board. We'll be announcing our rate survey at the end of -- in a couple of weeks' time. It will show 6% year-to-date in quarterly results in the property area. No question, there's going to be a strain in the property market, particularly for clients that have high cat exposures. We would have thought by now at this point in the cycle, after such consistent growth in property, that we have started to see some easing off. The reverse is going to be true, sadly, for our clients, going through for the back end of the year.

好吧，我們對此很感興趣——連續第 20 個季度全面加息。我們將在幾週後宣布我們的利率調查。它將在房地產領域的季度業績中顯示年初至今的 6%。毫無疑問，房地產市場將會出現壓力，特別是對於擁有高貓風險的客戶而言。在房地產如此持續增長之後，我們現在會認為在周期的這個點上，我們已經開始看到一些緩和。不幸的是，對於我們的客戶來說，在今年年底，情況正好相反。

Across the board, though, rates, so I'll just -- I'll give you some color on those, John. The composite rate is 6%, which is down a little bit from the last quarter. Casualty is up 4% still, as I mentioned, probably 6%. FINPRO lines are down 1%. They were heavily weighted in the prior year from -- and in the prior quarter from D&O, SPACs and cyber. And we've broken out -- we will be breaking out cyber especially this year, which is showing rate increases of 53%. And that's down a little bit from rate increases in the prior quarter, but still very strong rate increases. And some of the activity we've seen there is slowing down a little bit.

不過，全面的利率，所以我只是 - 我會給你一些顏色，約翰。綜合率為6%，比上一季度略有下降。正如我所提到的，傷亡人數仍然上升了 4%，可能上升了 6%。 FINPRO 線下降了 1%。他們在上一年和上一季度來自 D&O、SPAC 和網絡的權重很大。我們已經爆發了——尤其是今年，我們將爆發網絡，其增長率為 53%。這比上一季度的加息略有下降，但加息仍然非常強勁。我們在那裡看到的一些活動正在放緩。

But it's a healthy market. But of course, we're worried about our clients. And as we said, we're going to be looking for solutions to plan them and we see that as a potential demand driver as well.

但這是一個健康的市場。但當然，我們擔心我們的客戶。正如我們所說，我們將尋找解決方案來規劃它們，我們也將其視為潛在的需求驅動因素。

Our next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

I just had a question first on Oliver Wyman. I think there's concerns that if the economy slows down, that's a business that might be vulnerable to slower organic growth, but you've obviously had very strong results for the last several quarters. So if you could talk about what you're seeing in terms of pipeline and just what your expectations are for the business?

我剛問了一個關於奧緯諮詢的問題。我認為有人擔心，如果經濟放緩，該業務可能容易受到有機增長放緩的影響，但您顯然在過去幾個季度取得了非常強勁的業績。因此，如果您可以談談您在管道方面看到的情況以及您對業務的期望是什麼？

Sure.

當然。

As we've mentioned before, Oliver Wyman and Mercer's Career business are probably the most sensitive to the economic cycle, and it represents about 17% of our business. And both have been performing remarkably well over a long stretch of time. I mean, Mercer, as we mentioned earlier, Mercer's Career is up 15%, and it's their sixth quarter of double-digit growth in a row. And Oliver Wyman has had 7 quarters of double-digit growth in a row. So if there are cloud somewhere in the future, we're not seeing them right today.

正如我們之前提到的，奧緯諮詢和美世的職業業務可能對經濟周期最敏感，約占我們業務的 17%。在很長一段時間內，兩者的表現都非常出色。我的意思是，美世，正如我們之前提到的，美世的職業生涯增長了 15%，這是他們連續第六個季度實現兩位數增長。奧緯諮詢已連續 7 個季度實現兩位數增長。因此，如果未來某個地方有云，我們今天看不到它們。

But Nick, you want to give us more on Oliver Wyman?

但是尼克，你想給我們更多關於奧緯諮詢的信息嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Jimmy, yes. It is true that our market tends to prosper when the economy is healthy. But at the same time, when all the questions change, our clients need nuances. And I will say we're not seeing any reversal in our business and our pipeline continues to be robust.

吉米，是的。確實，當經濟健康時，我們的市場往往會繁榮。但與此同時，當所有問題都發生變化時，我們的客戶需要細微差別。我會說我們的業務沒有出現任何逆轉，我們的管道繼續強勁。

As Dan and Martin both mentioned, the M&A and SPAC cycle, we have seen slower pace on the differences that thrive on M&A activity, and I suspect we won't be immune to some of the tough elements in the cycle. But our client offerings are less procyclical than they were perhaps 5 years ago. We have a strong capability in risk management, a lot of work in performance improvement, both top line and bottom line. We've established a restructuring practice, so -- and I'd add, it's actually been an incredibly tough environment for quite a few years now in several of the sectors we serve with the effects of the pandemic. So for now, the pipeline remains strong.

正如 Dan 和 Martin 都提到的併購和 SPAC 週期，我們已經看到併購活動中蓬勃發展的差異的步伐放緩，我懷疑我們不會對周期中的一些艱難因素免疫。但我們的客戶產品不像 5 年前那樣順週期性。我們有很強的風險管理能力，在業績提升方面做了大量工作，無論是頂線還是底線。我們已經建立了重組實踐，所以——我要補充的是，在我們服務的幾個受大流行影響的行業中，多年來，這實際上是一個非常艱難的環境。因此，就目前而言，管道仍然強勁。

Yes.

是的。

And the other thing about it is that even though the Career business and Oliver Wyman are more sensitive, they actually bounced back a lot quicker post a down cycle. So they're great businesses, we're glad we're in them. And overall, they provide us with leading growth over long stretches of time, and we're not overly concerned with short first.

另一件事是，即使職業業務和奧緯諮詢更敏感，他們實際上在下跌週期後反彈得更快。所以他們是偉大的企業，我們很高興我們在其中。總體而言，它們在很長一段時間內為我們提供了領先的增長，我們並沒有過分擔心先做空。

Do you have a follow-up, Jimmy?

你有後續嗎，吉米？

Yes. Just on fiduciary investment income. It's up, I think, around 10x what it was a year ago and almost 3x the sequential quarter. So obviously, there's a benefit there from higher interest rates, but wondering if that's all it is? And should we assume that it goes up further as rates have gone even higher since the end of the quarter? Or was there any sort of discrete items that benefited the 3Q results?

是的。僅靠信託投資收益。我認為，它大約是一年前的 10 倍，幾乎是環比的 3 倍。很明顯，更高的利率是有好處的，但想知道這就是全部嗎？我們是否應該假設自本季度末以來利率甚至更高，它會進一步上漲？或者是否有任何類型的離散項目使第三季度業績受益？

Well, it's nice to say it was up 10x. It started from a very -- but Mark, do you want to talk about fiduciary income?

好吧，很高興說它上漲了 10 倍。它開始於一個非常 - 但是馬克，你想談談信託收入嗎？

Jimmy, there was nothing unusual or one-time in the results. So as you noted, we have $4 million a year ago in the third quarter. It was $40 million in this third quarter, and it just reflects the rise in global rates, so it's definitely a source of upside for us. Obviously, we have balances all over the world, and so we're dependent on rates moving in different jurisdictions, but there's generally a trend up. And just remember, we've got over $10 billion of fiduciary balances on any given day, so 100 basis points equals $100 million of income.

吉米，結果沒有什麼不尋常的或一次性的。正如你所指出的，我們一年前的第三季度有 400 萬美元。第三季度為 4000 萬美元，這只是反映了全球利率的上升，所以這對我們來說絕對是一個上漲的源泉。顯然，我們在世界各地都有餘額，因此我們依賴於不同司法管轄區的利率變動，但總體上呈上升趨勢。請記住，我們在任何一天都有超過 100 億美元的信託餘額，因此 100 個基點等於 1 億美元的收入。

And our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自與 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

Dan, congrats on the retirement. It's been quite a ride. Congrats.

丹，祝賀你退休。這是一個很好的旅程。恭喜。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

Just had a question on the hiring activity that's been picking up. Obviously, the tough comp in the U.S. just on the M&A side in Marsh makes it a little tough to see any impact. But I was just wondering if you could just comment on how much this quarter benefited from some of the strategic hires that you've made over the last 1.5 years, 2 years? And maybe give us a sense of how much that should ramp as we head into 2023?

剛剛有一個關於招聘活動的問題。顯然，僅在 Marsh 的併購方面，美國的艱難競爭使得很難看到任何影響。但我只是想知道您是否可以評論一下本季度從您在過去 1.5 年、2 年中所做的一些戰略招聘中受益多少？也許讓我們了解在我們進入 2023 年時應該增加多少？

Yes. So why don't we start with John, and maybe we'll go deeper. But John, why don't you take that?

是的。那麼我們為什麼不從約翰開始，也許我們會更深入。但是約翰，你為什麼不接受呢？

Sure, Dan.

當然，丹。

David, we're very, very pleased. We continue to be just absolutely pleased with the [strat] hiring that we did last year. Not only are they producing, but we did a lot of work as we are hiring these folks to make sure that they're a cultural fit, and that's proven to be the case as well. So we started with world-class talent. We think the best talent in the markets that we serve, and these folks have made us better. We serve our clients and teams, and they've fit in very, very nicely at both Marsh and Guy Carpenter, where we did most of it. We did some of the hiring in Mercer as well.

大衛，我們非常非常高興。我們繼續對我們去年所做的 [strat] 招聘感到非常滿意。他們不僅在製作，而且我們在僱用這些人時做了很多工作，以確保他們符合文化要求，事實證明也是如此。所以我們從世界一流的人才開始。我們認為我們服務的市場中最優秀的人才，這些人讓我們變得更好。我們為我們的客戶和團隊提供服務，他們在 Marsh 和 Guy Carpenter 都非常、非常好地融入其中，我們大部分時間都是在那裡完成的。我們也在美世進行了一些招聘。

But Martin, maybe you could just talk about the productivity to the -- of the hires?

但是馬丁，也許你可以談談員工的生產力？

John, thank you.

約翰，謝謝。

And as you said, very, very happy with the investments that we made last year. We -- the cultural accretion to us has been significant. They've brought new skills, new insights to the firm, and they've spread it out like wildfire. We focus very heavily on the investments, as you know, in areas where we thought there was high recurring revenue growth to the point. The question was, yes, we see these ramping up. Everything is penciling out exactly as we thought it would. In some areas, we're actually ahead of plan, so we continue to see this as a continuing add to our revenue or growth and our capabilities. Couldn't be happier.

正如你所說，我們對去年的投資非常非常滿意。我們——對我們的文化積累意義重大。他們為公司帶來了新技能、新見解，並且像野火一樣將其傳播開來。如您所知，我們非常關注在我們認為經常性收入增長很高的領域的投資。問題是，是的，我們看到這些正在增加。一切都像我們想像的那樣準確無誤。在某些領域，我們實際上超出了計劃，因此我們繼續將其視為對我們的收入或增長和能力的持續增加。再高興不過了。

So as you know, David, it's 2 to 3 years before the -- they're fully productive. But we couldn't be more pleased with the progress to date.

所以你知道，大衛，在他們完全生產之前需要 2 到 3 年。但我們對迄今為止的進展感到非常滿意。

I don't want to sound like a Hollywood agent, but it is about the talent. We're a people business. It's the smart, dedicated, creative people attract other smart, dedicated and creative people. So we've got a mountain of talent within the company, and we would continue to build upon that.

我不想听起來像好萊塢經紀人，但這是關於人才的。我們是一家以人為本的企業。聰明、專注、有創造力的人會吸引其他聰明、專注和有創造力的人。因此，我們在公司內部擁有大量人才，我們將繼續在此基礎上再接再厲。

Do you have a follow-up, David?

你有後續嗎，大衛？

I do, yes.

我願意，是的。

And just on the property cat market on the reinsurance side, it sounds like that's spilling over a bit into cat-exposed primary. I'm wondering if you're seeing that at all starting to spill over into non-property lines at all? Or if you expect that to happen?

就再保險方面的房地產貓市場而言，這聽起來有點溢出到貓暴露的初級領域。我想知道你是否看到它開始蔓延到非財產線？或者，如果您期望會發生這種情況？

David, not at this point, and I would say I wouldn't expect that to happen. Of course, things are -- haven't even yet begun to settle, so there's a lot for us to learn. But as I noted in my prepared comments, this is a major, major loss, and so it will impact both the insurance and reinsurance markets, but principally in property.

大衛，不是在這一點上，我會說我不希望會發生這種情況。當然，事情還沒有開始解決，所以我們還有很多東西要學。但正如我在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，這是一項重大的重大損失，因此它將影響保險和再保險市場，但主要是房地產市場。

Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞的 Yaron Kinar。

And I also want to congratulate Dan on a phenomenal career, and good luck in retirement. And good luck to John as well. Tough act to follow.

我還要祝賀丹的職業生涯非凡，並祝你退休好運。也祝約翰好運。艱難的行動。

I guess first question, going back to the reinsurance market and maybe the dislocation we're seeing in Florida, and more broadly, in property cat. So I think I understand the rate environment, but at the same time, we're also hearing about maybe dearth of capital, private reinsurance pulling out of the market, maybe public markets looking to take on some of that bucket, if you will. I guess, how are you envisioning the supply issue? And how much of an impact could that have on overall growth next year?

我想第一個問題，回到再保險市場，也許是我們在佛羅里達看到的錯位，更廣泛地說，在財產貓。所以我想我理解利率環境，但與此同時，我們也聽說可能缺乏資本，私人再保險退出市場，如果你願意的話，也許公共市場希望承擔一些責任。我想，您如何看待供應問題？這會對明年的整體增長產生多大影響？

And related to that, I would think that a lot of your colleagues have actually never experienced a real hard market and certainly in Guy Carpenter. So how are you preparing them to address this new environment?

與此相關的是，我認為您的許多同事實際上從未經歷過真正的艱難市場，當然在 Guy Carpenter 中也是如此。那麼，您如何讓他們準備好應對這種新環境呢？

Yes. That's a good series of questions, and it's certainly something that's been at the executive team table as we think through how to serve clients in this kind of environment.

是的。這是一系列很好的問題，當我們思考如何在這種環境中為客戶服務時，這肯定是執行團隊桌上的問題。

We've been in tough markets before, but your basic point about supply and demand, yes. Demand will outstrip supply. It's already outstripping supply, so it's just an extent of how quickly the market can adapt to that.

我們以前經歷過艱難的市場，但你關於供需的基本觀點是的。需求將超過供應。它已經供不應求了，所以這只是市場適應這種情況的速度的一個程度。

Dean, do you want to give us more?

院長，你想給我們更多嗎？

Sure. Maybe I'll give you a little more color. Thanks, Dan.

當然。也許我會給你更多的顏色。謝謝，丹。

As John noted earlier, Ian's impact on already [straps] property market could be significant. Prior to Ian, right, there seemed like there was increased demand from clients to absorb inflation and recent losses in the market, so we're already starting to feel that 1/1 stress. And as John noted, following Ian, we're really starting to see the property cat market tighten particularly in the U.S., with potential supply and balances in the marketplace.

正如約翰早些時候指出的那樣，伊恩對已經 [束縛] 房地產市場的影響可能是巨大的。在伊恩之前，對，似乎客戶對吸收通脹和近期市場損失的需求增加了，所以我們已經開始感受到 1/1 的壓力。正如約翰指出的那樣，繼伊恩之後，我們真的開始看到房地產貓市場收緊，尤其是在美國，市場存在潛在的供應和平衡。

As you know, it's the third year in a row of $100 billion of cat losses in the market. And I would say it's going to be more, potentially more than just rate increases for U.S. cat-exposed clients, right. Increased retentions, changes in coverage in terms, reduce capacity from individual players, and also the impact from the retrocession market, which could be significantly impacted as well. Some are discussing 25% of the retrocession capital being trapped by Ian and the market, and not replenished for January 1. So certainly, we've got some stresses there.

如您所知，這是貓貓市場連續第三年損失 1000 億美元。而且我會說這將不僅僅是美國貓暴露客戶的利率上漲，對吧。保留增加、覆蓋範圍的變化、單個參與者的容量減少，以及轉分保市場的影響，這也可能受到重大影響。一些人正在討論 25% 的轉分保資金被 Ian 和市場困住，並沒有在 1 月 1 日得到補充。所以當然，我們有一些壓力。

However, I would say we're working very closely with our clients, leveraging our deep expertise in the market to work closely with clients, to deliver successful incomes, and we're investigating new capacity in the marketplace. We've been working for several months with players around the world to bring more capital, more interest into the cat market on behalf of our clients.

然而，我想說我們正在與我們的客戶密切合作，利用我們在市場上的深厚專業知識與客戶密切合作，以提供成功的收入，我們正在研究市場上的新產能。我們已經與世界各地的參與者合作了幾個月，代表我們的客戶為貓市場帶來更多的資金和更多的興趣。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

And so it's one of those things. Very tough markets really, in some ways, it's the period where Marsh McLennan shines the most. And so Guy Carpenter will do well but at any time where there's supply and demand imbalances, you could have short-term pressures of something not being able to replace, because there's not enough capital providers willing to write a particular line of business. But solutions will be found, and we're actively working for our clients in that area.

這就是其中之一。非常艱難的市場確實，在某些方面，這是 Marsh McLennan 最閃耀的時期。所以 Guy Carpenter 會做得很好，但在供需失衡的任何時候，你都可能面臨無法替代的短期壓力，因為沒有足夠的資本提供者願意編寫特定的業務線。但我們會找到解決方案，我們正在為該領域的客戶積極工作。

Any follow-up, Yaron? Although you asked about 4 questions. Give me another one, if you have one at the ready.

有後續嗎，亞龍？雖然你問了大約 4 個問題。再給我一個，如果你準備好了。

I have one more, hopefully, shorter.

我還有一個，希望更短。

Cyber, you mentioned very strong rate increases. I think that's also a continuation of a couple of years of strong rate improvement. That said, my understanding is that '22 is starting to -- the loss experience is starting to moderate. How are you envisioning '23 as far as rate increases and maybe increased demand, if rate increases are slower?

網絡，你提到了非常強勁的利率增長。我認為這也是幾年強勁利率改善的延續。也就是說，我的理解是 '22 開始 - 損失經歷開始緩和。如果加息速度較慢，您如何看待 23 年加息以及可能增加的需求？

John?

約翰？

Yes. Yaron, I'm going to forecast the pricing environment for cyber. Price increases are moderating. I think you used the word improving, that I'm not sure our clients would -- at Marsh, would consider it an improving rate environment. We've had a lot of rate on rate. It's been a difficult market.

是的。 Yaron，我將預測網絡的定價環境。價格上漲正在放緩。我認為您使用了改進這個詞，我不確定我們的客戶會不會——在達信，會認為這是一個改進的利率環境。我們有很多利率。這是一個艱難的市場。

What I would also note about cyber, well, ransomware, to some extent, I think, reflective of the reduction in ransomware in recent quarters. Underwriters have also responded to ransomware through higher retentions, lower limits, for example, longer term, though, the cyber market is not near maturity. And so we're still working to bring more capital to the market, better solutions to the marketplace. But the cyber insurance market should be an area of growth for us for some time as we help our clients navigate the risks of a digital economy.

關於網絡，勒索軟件，我還要指出，在某種程度上，我認為，這反映了最近幾個季度勒索軟件的減少。承銷商還通過更高的保留期、更低的限制（例如更長期）來應對勒索軟件，但網絡市場還沒有接近成熟。因此，我們仍在努力為市場帶來更多資金，為市場帶來更好的解決方案。但網絡保險市場在一段時間內應該是我們的一個增長領域，因為我們幫助客戶應對數字經濟的風險。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 Meyer Shields 與 KBW 的系列。

I want to add my congratulations to Dan. I remember where Marsh was when you first came on board. You've done an absolutely phenomenal job.

我想祝賀丹。我記得你剛上船時馬什在哪裡。你完成了一項非常出色的工作。

I had your headline from November of 2007, what else could go wrong? A statement, not a question. That was on my [notice board] for about 5 years there.

我有你 2007 年 11 月的標題，還有什麼問題？一個陳述，而不是一個問題。那是在我的[佈告欄]上呆了大約 5 年。

Well, yes.

嗯，是。

Anyhow, quick question. Look, I'm trying to decipher how much politics is real. But a fair amount of opposition brewing in some parts of the country to ESG, and I'm wondering how that's impacting demand for ESG-related consulting?

無論如何，快速提問。看，我正試圖破譯多少政治是真實的。但是，在該國某些地區，對 ESG 的反對聲不斷，我想知道這對 ESG 相關諮詢的需求有何影響？

Sure. It's a great question. We're reading the same reports. Why don't we go first to Martine to talk a little bit about the Mercer investment side of the business and other areas of Mercer that are impacted, or that markets in ESG? And then we'll hand over to Nick Studer as well.

當然。這是一個很好的問題。我們正在閱讀相同的報告。為什麼我們不先去 Martine 談談 Mercer 業務的投資方面以及受影響的 Mercer 其他領域，或者 ESG 市場？然後我們也將移交給 Nick Studer。

But Martine?

但是馬丁?

Yes, for sure. And thanks, Meyer, for the question.

是肯定的。感謝 Meyer 的提問。

For us at Mercer in terms of environmental and social and governance, actually, we can work with clients on all 3 fronts: low-carbon economy, the transitions, sustainable investment. We help clients wherever they are in their philosophy of investment and their objectives to look at the market and the best risk and rewards. So our clients invest for the long run, and they look at the risk elements of their investment.

對於美世而言，在環境、社會和治理方面，實際上，我們可以在所有 3 個方面與客戶合作：低碳經濟、轉型、可持續投資。無論客戶的投資理念和目標是什麼，我們都可以幫助他們了解市場以及最佳風險和回報。因此，我們的客戶進行長期投資，他們關注投資的風險因素。

And it's with that length that we're looking at the ESG factors with them. We don't see that kind of demand and necessity to look at risk. I mean, all through the Q&A today, we have talked about climate risk, for example. So we need to figure -- factor these risks in when we look at investment in all our clients get the returns that they're looking for.

我們正在與他們一起研究 ESG 因素。我們沒有看到這種需求和必要性來看待風險。我的意思是，在今天的問答環節中，例如，我們已經討論了氣候風險。因此，當我們考慮對所有客戶進行投資時，我們需要考慮這些風險，以獲得他們正在尋找的回報。

Other elements, of course, DE&I, social, minimum standards of benefit across the world, so we pay equity. We have a lot of work there with our clients that are focused very much on building diverse workforces and the whole governance elements around it. Whether it goes from executive compensation to the way that they manage and govern their investment.

其他因素，當然，DE&I，社會，全球最低福利標準，所以我們支付公平。我們在那裡與我們的客戶進行了很多工作，他們非常專注於建立多樣化的員工隊伍以及圍繞它的整個治理元素。無論是從高管薪酬到他們管理和管理投資的方式。

Actually coming back to investment, it's been quite a rough year on the capital market this new year. But we've been working with clients and actually, we've been very busy on the [DB] consulting side of the house, in particular, to help quite navigate that very intense headwinds and volatility in capital markets.

其實回歸投資，新的一年，資本市場是相當艱難的一年。但我們一直在與客戶合作，實際上，我們一直非常忙於公司的 [DB] 諮詢方面，特別是幫助我們應對資本市場非常激烈的逆風和波動。

Thanks. Nick?

謝謝。缺口？

Yes. I mean, in -- Meyer, in Oliver Wyman, the main focus of the 3 would be around the climate transition, and I think that backlash that you're seeing in some places is something we've expected for quite a while. There is a delicate balance to strike in -- especially the carbon transition between security and affordability, and the transition itself. And ultimately, when many sectors are trying to reverse engineer 200 years since Industrial Revolution in 20 years, there'll be actions which overshoot, there will be actions which take on greater resistance.

是的。我的意思是，在梅耶，奧緯諮詢，3 的主要焦點將圍繞氣候過渡，我認為你在某些地方看到的反彈是我們已經預料到了很長一段時間的事情。需要達成一個微妙的平衡——尤其是安全性和可負擔性之間的碳過渡，以及過渡本身。最終，當許多行業試圖在 20 年內對工業革命以來的 200 年進行逆向工程時，會有一些行動過頭，會有一些行動會承受更大的阻力。

But as it affects our business, our climate sustainability practice is one of the fastest-growing areas of Oliver Wyman. Most investment we've made over the last 3 or 4 years, and it continues to grow in the very high double digits. We're not seeing any reduction in demand. We are seeing that the questions are getting more (inaudible).

但由於它影響到我們的業務，我們的氣候可持續性實踐是奧緯諮詢發展最快的領域之一。我們在過去 3 或 4 年中所做的大部分投資，並且繼續以非常高的兩位數增長。我們沒有看到需求減少。我們看到問題越來越多（聽不清）。

Yes. Thank you. Any follow-up?

是的。謝謝你。有後續嗎？

Yes, just a brief one, maybe this is for Mark. I was hoping you could talk us through capital deployment plans as the cost of capital is reflected in the risk-free rate rises?

是的，只是一個簡短的，也許這是給馬克的。我希望您能通過資本部署計劃與我們交談，因為資本成本反映在無風險利率上升中？

Yes. Meyer, I don't -- even though interest rates have come up and obviously, the weighted average cost of capital for the firm has come up as a result, we tend to value balance and consistency in our approaches, and they've served us well over a long period of time. So even though things have gotten a little more expensive in economic terms, it isn't enough to make us change our fundamental views on capital allocation, capital structure, things like that.

是的。邁耶，我沒有——儘管利率上升了，而且很明顯，公司的加權平均資本成本也因此上升，我們傾向於重視我們方法的平衡和一致性，而且它們已經起到了作用我們在很長一段時間內都很好。因此，即使從經濟角度來看，事情變得更加昂貴，但這還不足以讓我們改變我們對資本配置、資本結構等方面的基本看法。

When it comes to M&A, we've held ourselves to much higher return standards than our weighted average cost of capital consistently, and we'll continue to do that. But I don't think there's anything about the current environment that makes us change our basic strategy.

在併購方面，我們始終堅持比加權平均資本成本高得多的回報標準，我們將繼續這樣做。但我不認為當前的環境有什麼讓我們改變我們的基本策略。

Our next question comes from the line of Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的羅伯特考克斯。

So Latin America and Asia Pacific have been particularly strong. I was wondering if we could get a little more color on what's driving that relative to the U.S.? Is it higher inflation, higher pricing, market share gains? Anything -- any color on that would be great.

因此，拉丁美洲和亞太地區表現尤為強勁。我想知道我們是否可以對相對於美國的驅動因素有更多的了解？是更高的通脹、更高的定價、市場份額的增長嗎？任何東西——上面的任何顏色都會很棒。

Sure. We'll dig in with Martin in a second.

當然。我們稍後會深入了解 Martin。

I mean, in general, what we've seen in -- over, really, the last couple of decades is that you not only have regular higher levels of growth and a bit more inflation sometimes over long stretches of time in places like Asia and Latin America, but you also have increased insurance penetration. As the economy develops, insurance becomes the underpinning for development, and so that has always been a benefit to us as well.

我的意思是，總的來說，我們在過去幾十年中看到的情況是，在亞洲和亞洲等地，在很長一段時間內，您不僅有規律的更高水平的增長，而且有時還會出現更多的通貨膨脹。拉丁美洲，但您的保險深度也有所提高。隨著經濟的發展，保險成為發展的基礎，這也一直對我們有利。

Martin, do you want to give us more?

馬丁，你想給我們更多嗎？

Yes. Thank you.

是的。謝謝你。

And look, for the last few years as well, you've seen International has been slightly weaker than the U.S. That's rebounding, and we best to balance things that are so strong in our portfolio, so we're really pleased with the overall balance in our business.

看，在過去的幾年裡，你也看到國際市場略弱於美國。這是反彈，我們最好平衡我們投資組合中如此強大的東西，所以我們對整體平衡感到非常滿意在我們的業務中。

As Dan said, for Asia Pacific, very strong growth of 14%. We have a terrific franchise in Asia and Pacific, pretty well unrivaled positions in almost all the markets there. So you could not buy what we have in that market. It's a mixture of -- in Japan, maturity and us having been there for such a long period of time and building trust with the local community, and the carriers and doing more indigenous business. It's the protection gap that you see across Southeast Asia that's giving us share, it's strength in our benefits business across Asia.

正如 Dan 所說，對於亞太地區來說，14% 的增長非常強勁。我們在亞太地區擁有出色的特許經營權，在幾乎所有市場中都擁有無可匹敵的地位。所以你不能買我們在那個市場上的東西。這是一個混合 - 在日本，成熟和我們已經在那里呆了這麼長時間，並與當地社區和運營商建立信任並開展更多本土業務。正是您在東南亞看到的保障差距給了我們份額，這是我們在亞洲福利業務中的優勢。

And the same for Latin America. We have an unbelievable franchise there, very strong businesses in all the big geographies, in all the big markets in Latin America. There's some great strength there, but it's been relatively modest for a while. It's really a question of just getting market share and strength and a terrific leadership team.

拉丁美洲也是如此。我們在那裡擁有令人難以置信的特許經營權，在所有大的地區，在拉丁美洲的所有大市場都有非常強大的業務。那裡有一些強大的力量，但有一段時間它相對溫和。這真的是一個獲得市場份額和實力以及一個了不起的領導團隊的問題。

And Dan, I would add that JLT made us stronger in both -- in both regions as well. Absolutely.

丹，我要補充一點，JLT 讓我們在兩個地區都變得更強大——在這兩個地區也是如此。絕對地。

Any follow-up, Robert?

有後續嗎，羅伯特？

Yes. I think that's very helpful.

是的。我認為這很有幫助。

And I just had a follow-up on Career. So there's been some favorable trends in Career driven by some of the changing dynamics in the labor market. How sustainable are those trends if unemployment rise a couple of points? Could you still see strong growth given those underlying changes, or is that too optimistic?

我剛剛對職業生涯進行了跟進。因此，在勞動力市場的一些變化動態的推動下，職業生涯出現了一些有利的趨勢。如果失業率上升幾個百分點，這些趨勢的可持續性如何？考慮到這些潛在的變化，你還能看到強勁的增長嗎，還是太樂觀了？

Martine?

馬丁?

Yes. Thank you for the question, Robert.

是的。謝謝你的問題，羅伯特。

No, it's a good question. There's no doubt that coming out of the pandemic, the world of work has completely changed, and that has driven demand. But you look at all that's currently playing out, whether it's high inflation, it's labor shortage, it's emerging new skills that we have to help clients gravitate to reorganizing the way that you work. So we have talked before about the impact that recession has had in the past on the Career Services business. There's also the Career Product business, about half and half of revenue in that space. Career Product is actually more resilient through recessions.

不，這是個好問題。毫無疑問，大流行過後，工作世界已經徹底改變，這推動了需求。但是你看看目前正在發生的一切，無論是高通脹，勞動力短缺，還是新興的新技能，我們必須幫助客戶重新組織你的工作方式。因此，我們之前已經討論過經濟衰退過去對職業服務業務的影響。還有職業產品業務，約佔該領域收入的一半。職業產品實際上在經濟衰退中更具彈性。

And Career Services, given the fundamentals that we see in the market today, we currently don't see any slowdown. Clients are really needing help to navigate all of the changes. We're not immune to a change in economic pace, but we rebound quickly, and we've -- we'll carry through. So, so far, so good.

而職業服務，鑑於我們今天在市場上看到的基本面，我們目前沒有看到任何放緩。客戶確實需要幫助來應對所有的變化。我們不能倖免於經濟步伐的變化，但我們會迅速反彈，而且我們已經 - 我們會堅持下去。所以，到目前為止，一切都很好。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

And also, I just want to congratulate you, Dan, and I want to echo Meyer's comments. It's an absolute pleasure watching you lead this organization for the last decade.

而且，我只想祝賀你，Dan，我想回應 Meyer 的評論。在過去的十年裡，很高興看到你領導這個組織。

Question for you first, M&A. What does the pipeline look like right now? And particularly, as we kind of look at M&A here with private equity may be cooling off a little bit here, becoming a little more challenging, are you seeing a better pipeline here? And I'm assuming that John wants to outdo you on JLT here pretty quickly?

先問你一個問題，併購。管道現在是什麼樣子的？特別是，當我們看到這裡的私募股權併購可能會稍微降溫，變得更具挑戰性時，您是否看到這裡有更好的管道？我假設約翰想在這裡很快在 JLT 上超越你？

Yes. Looking at chaps over there.

是的。看著那邊的傢伙。

No, the M&A pipeline is good. We -- as we've said a few times before in the past, we cultivate relationships over long stretches of time. We're less interested in the call from a banker saying, hey, something's going to market. We're inviting 10 people. You want to participate? And so for us, pipeline development and meeting as a core executive team on a regular cadence to review the pipeline and talk to potential prospects in the future, that's just a part of how we go about the business.

不，併購渠道很好。我們——正如我們過去多次說過的那樣，我們在很長一段時間內培養關係。我們對銀行家打來的電話不太感興趣，他說，嘿，有東西要上市了。我們要邀請 10 個人。你想參加嗎？因此，對我們來說，管道開發和作為核心執行團隊定期開會，以審查管道並與未來的潛在前景交談，這只是我們開展業務的一部分。

As you know, we favor building our business through acquisition over share repurchase, but they sort of go in tandem. When we have a lighter year in M&A, we'll have more share repurchase sort of like this year, when we have a heavy year in M&A, we'd have less share repurchase because our dividend is -- comes first and is sacrosanct.

如您所知，我們傾向於通過收購而不是股票回購來建立我們的業務，但它們有點相輔相成。當我們的併購活動較少時，我們將進行更多的股票回購，就像今年一樣，當我們在併購活動中度過沉重的一年時，我們的股票回購將減少，因為我們的股息是——首先是神聖不可侵犯的。

So when we look at the pipeline, the pipeline is good. We have a transaction that we've mentioned to you before in BT/Westpac, which won't close until next year. But still when we're thinking about the utilization of our capital, we're pretty much thinking that it's kind of well, it's partly this year and it's partly next year regardless of when the cash goes out the door. And as you know, we've sort of average, if you exclude JLT, we've sort of averaged about $1 billion a year on acquisitions, and that's likely to continue.

所以當我們看管道時，管道是好的。我們之前在英國電信/西太平洋銀行有一筆交易，我們之前已經向您提到過，該交易要到明年才能完成。但是，當我們考慮利用我們的資金時，我們幾乎認為它有點好，部分是今年，部分是明年，不管現金何時流出。如您所知，如果不包括 JLT，我們的平均每年收購額約為 10 億美元，而且這種情況可能會繼續下去。

Makes sense.

說得通。

And then a quick follow-up here for Mark. Mark, any initial kind of thoughts on what the net benefit from pension could look like in 2023, given the big rise we've seen in interest rates?

然後是馬克的快速跟進。馬克，鑑於我們已經看到利率大幅上升，關於 2023 年養老金的淨收益可能是什麼樣子的任何初步想法？

Brian, it's just really too early to tell. There's so much that goes into that, that calculation of the other net benefit credit. It's really not until we see, with Mercer's great help, of course, the outlook for expected returns and our year-end valuation that we really formulate a view on that. So I think when we were back together in January, I'll have a perspective then.

布賴恩，現在說還為時過早。其他淨福利信用的計算有很多內容。當然，在美世的大力幫助下，直到我們看到預期回報的前景和我們的年終估值，我們才真正對此形成了看法。所以我想當我們在一月份重新在一起時，我會有一個觀點。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的邁克爾菲利普斯。

First question is still back on the theme of property cat reinsurance, guys. How much of a real risk has it been that some business just simply is not going to get placed at the beginning of the year? And then how material could that be?

伙計們，第一個問題仍然是關於財產貓再保險的主題。一些業務根本不會在年初得到安排，這有多大的真正風險？那怎麼可能是物質的呢？

John, do you want to start with that?

約翰，你想從那個開始嗎？

Yes, Mike, happy to jump back in on this.

是的，邁克，很高興再次參與進來。

Again, it's still quite early, and so I think most reinsurers and insurers are planning and trying to decide how to best deploy capital going forward. As we, Dean and Dan and I have all discussed, we expect some level of disruption. It's going to be a challenging market. But again, we're using the capabilities of our entire firm to bring solutions to the market. Data and analytics, new investors, new facilities. And in some cases, it may mean clients retaining more risk, both insurers but also our retail clients as well. And we're the global leader in managing captives on behalf of our clients, and so it's an example.

同樣，現在還為時過早，所以我認為大多數再保險公司和保險公司都在計劃並試圖決定如何最好地配置未來的資本。正如我們、Dean 和 Dan 以及我都討論過的那樣，我們預計會出現某種程度的破壞。這將是一個充滿挑戰的市場。但同樣，我們正在利用我們整個公司的能力將解決方案推向市場。數據和分析、新投資者、新設施。在某些情況下，這可能意味著客戶保留更多風險，包括保險公司以及我們的零售客戶。我們是代表客戶管理俘虜的全球領導者，這就是一個例子。

Now some of our clients may be pushed by the market to do that, and some may choose just given what might be elevated pricing, may more elect themselves to retain more risk. So we're going to work with them to help all of our clients accomplish their risk management goals.

現在我們的一些客戶可能會受到市場的推動，而有些客戶可能會選擇只是考慮到可能會提高的定價，可能會更多地選擇自己保留更多的風險。因此，我們將與他們合作，幫助我們所有的客戶實現他們的風險管理目標。

Okay.

好的。

And then as you said, the property cat market was certainly hardening a bit before Ian. I think we were here in kind of low single digits -- I'm sorry, double-digit, but now we're hearing pretty massive increases. The question is, is that strict -- are those levels that we're hearing, pick a number, 30%, 40%, 50%? I don't care the number you would pick, but is that strictly just Florida? Or do you see such levels as well outside of Florida around the world?

然後正如你所說，房地產貓市場在伊恩之前肯定會有所加強。我認為我們在這裡的數字很低——對不起，兩位數，但現在我們聽到了相當大的增長。問題是，是否嚴格——我們聽到的那些水平，選擇一個數字，30%、40%、50%？我不在乎你會選擇哪個號碼，但這僅僅是佛羅里達州嗎？或者您是否在佛羅里達州以外的世界範圍內也看到了這樣的水平？

Well, Mike, I think what you've seen over the last several years is cat losses have exceeded modeled estimates. So the market is underpriced. Insurers and reinsurers broadly underpriced the risk over that period of time, right? You can look at an extended period of time and, of course, get different outcomes. So the market is reacting to that. So you've also had an escalation of values that's happened in many cat-exposed markets as well. And then broadly speaking, inflation is creating some chances.

好吧，邁克，我認為您在過去幾年中看到的是貓的損失超過了模型估計。所以市場價格偏低。保險公司和再保險公司在這段時間內普遍低估了風險，對吧？您可以查看一段較長的時間，當然，會得到不同的結果。所以市場正在對此做出反應。因此，在許多與貓有關的市場中，您的價值觀也出現了升級。然後從廣義上講，通貨膨脹正在創造一些機會。

So as I noted in my prepared remarks, we're heading to meaningful rate change prior to Ian in the 20%, 25% plus of range to cover inflation and against just the elevated weather-related events over the last several years. Now it's likely to, of course, be higher than that. And so in talking to reinsurers and insurers they're thinking about, again, about how to best deploy their capital going forward. They're in the business of taking these risks and will ultimately make choices about where to best deploy that capital. And what they're saying today is they want to reserve it for their best clients. On the reinsurance side, that might mean clients that they also support them in casualty and other lines, as an example.

因此，正如我在準備好的講話中指出的那樣，我們將在伊恩之前進行有意義的利率變化，幅度為 20%、25% 以上，以涵蓋通貨膨脹，並僅針對過去幾年與天氣相關的事件加劇。當然，現在它可能會更高。因此，在與再保險公司和保險公司交談時，他們再次考慮如何最好地部署他們的資本。他們從事承擔這些風險的業務，並將最終決定在哪裡最好地部署這些資金。他們今天所說的是他們想為他們最好的客戶保留它。例如，在再保險方面，這可能意味著客戶也會在意外險和其他險種中為他們提供支持。

And so thinking about Marsh for a second, it's an interesting market. We have a high net worth personal lines support inside of M&A, important business to us. This loss is going to be more of a small business and personal line loss, and so it won't impact our major accounts really as much as other events have.

所以想一想 Marsh，這是一個有趣的市場。我們在併購中擁有高淨值個人線支持，這對我們來說很重要。這種損失將更多地是小企業和個人的線損，因此它不會像其他事件那樣真正影響我們的主要賬戶。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自於自主研究的 Ryan Tunis。

Just a follow-up on the fiduciary investment income. So we've had a number of years of really strong margin expansion where that hasn't played a role at all. Is it right? Am I thinking about this right that this should be kind of a separate and distinct margin tailwind on top of the type of margin expansion that we've seen over the past decade? Or is there investment potentially against some of that investment income?

只是對信託投資收益的跟進。因此，我們已經進行了多年非常強勁的利潤率擴張，而這根本沒有發揮作用。這樣對嗎？我是否認為這應該是我們在過去十年中看到的利潤率擴張類型之上的一種獨立且獨特的利潤率順風？或者是否有可能針對部分投資收入進行投資？

I mean, you're basically right in that fiduciary income, we didn't have. A lot of it is -- drops to the bottom line. So a lot of it is profit, and that will help margins in the future.

我的意思是，你在信託收入方面基本上是對的，而我們沒有。其中很多是——下降到了底線。因此，其中很大一部分是利潤，這將有助於未來的利潤率。

Perfect.

完美的。

And then a follow-up, I guess, for Martine. Just in Wealth, is there any way you can quantify with markets rolling over the type of impact that's having on organic growth?

然後，我猜是 Martine 的後續行動。就財富而言，您有什麼方法可以量化市場對有機增長的影響類型？

Please.

請。

Yes. No, thanks, Ryan.

是的。不，謝謝，瑞恩。

It has an impact. We commented on it, and as you can imagine, it's our -- also what we call our OCIO business where we're paid in this point of the assets under management, been a very good business to us. It's been growing rapidly, but it is exposed to short-term volatility from capital markets. And based on the market value that we see at the end of Q3, we do expect a drag from capital markets to continue in the fourth quarter, as a reference, and I think we alluded to that in our script. In Q3, this has cost us about 2 points of margin at Mercer, 4 points on Wealth. Top line revenue, exactly.

它有影響。我們對此發表了評論，正如您可以想像的那樣，這是我們的 - 也是我們所說的 OCIO 業務，我們在管理資產的這一點上獲得報酬，對我們來說是一項非常好的業務。它一直在快速增長，但它面臨著資本市場的短期波動。根據我們在第三季度末看到的市場價值，我們確實預計資本市場的拖累將在第四季度繼續作為參考，我認為我們在腳本中提到了這一點。在第三季度，這讓我們在 Mercer 損失了大約 2 個百分點的利潤，在 Wealth 損失了 4 個百分點。頂線收入，確切地說。

So Mercer would have been more like a 7 instead of a 5, not 4.

所以美世更像是 7 而不是 5，而不是 4。

Yes. And we had 15% in Career and 10% in Health, rounding this up. And also, it does help us on the [DB] consulting side where we consult the client when there's such impact on the capital market. Our portfolio is diversified, so that helps. We had also a great net (inaudible) coming to our funds, which will (inaudible) into next year, but we do (inaudible) headwind.

是的。我們在職業方面佔 15%，在健康方面佔 10%，四捨五入。而且，它確實有助於我們在 [DB] 諮詢方面，當對資本市場產生此類影響時，我們會諮詢客戶。我們的投資組合是多元化的，所以這很有幫助。我們的資金也有很大的淨額（聽不清），這將（聽不清）到明年，但我們確實（聽不清）逆風。

Okay.

好的。

So it's a terrific business, Ryan. As we noted, the assets under delegated management are down about 20% year-over-year. But having said that, if you look over the decade -- over a decade, the CAGR on assets under delegated management is about a 20% number on a CAGR basis. So it's a great business. We're glad we're in it. But obviously, it's a headwind in the short term. Hopefully, in the short term.

所以這是一個了不起的生意，瑞恩。正如我們所指出的，委託管理的資產同比下降了約 20%。但話雖如此，如果你回顧過去十年——十多年來，委託管理資產的複合年增長率約為 20%。所以這是一項偉大的事業。我們很高興我們在其中。但顯然，這在短期內是不利的。希望在短期內。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I would now like to turn the call back over to Dan Glaser, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan, for any closing remarks.

我現在想將電話轉回給 Marsh McLennan 總裁兼首席執行官 Dan Glaser，以聽取任何結束語。

Thank you, and thank you for joining us on the call this morning. I want to thank our 86,000 colleagues for their commitment, hard work and dedication to Marsh McLennan. And from the bottom of my heart, thank you for the trust you have put in me. Serving as CEO of Marsh McLennan has been an honor. Thank you.

謝謝你，感謝你今天早上加入我們的電話會議。我要感謝我們 86,000 名同事對 Marsh McLennan 的承諾、辛勤工作和奉獻。並且從心底里感謝你們對我的信任。擔任 Marsh McLennan 的首席執行官是一種榮譽。謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。