威達信集團 (MMC) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Marsh McLennan's Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. Second quarter 2022 financial results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at marshmclennan.com.

歡迎參加達信麥克倫南 2022 年第二季度財務業績電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。今天上午早些時候發布了 2022 年第二季度財務業績和補充信息。它們可在公司網站 marshmclennan.com 上找到。

Please note that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K, all of which are available on the Marsh McLennan website.

請注意，今天發表的言論可能包括前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，多種因素可能導致實際結果與此類陳述所設想的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素的更詳細討論，請參閱我們本季度的收益發布和我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，包括我們最近的 10-K 表格，所有這些都可以在 Marsh McLennan 網站上找到。

During the call today, we may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release. (Operator Instructions)

在今天的電話會議中，我們還可能討論某些非公認會計原則的財務措施。有關這些措施與最可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬，請參閱今天的收益發布中的時間表。 （操作員說明）

I'll now turn this over to Dan Glaser, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.

我現在將把它交給 Marsh McLennan 總裁兼首席執行官 Dan Glaser。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our second quarter results reported earlier today. I'm Dan Glaser, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan. Joining me on the call today is John Doyle, our Group President and COO; Mark McGivney, our CFO; and the CEOs of our businesses, Martin South of Marsh, Dean Klisura of Guy Carpenter, Martine Ferland of Mercer and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman. Also with us this morning is Sarah Dewitt, Head of Investor Relations.

早上好，感謝您加入我們討論今天早些時候報告的第二季度業績。我是丹·格拉澤，Marsh McLennan 總裁兼首席執行官。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的集團總裁兼首席運營官 John Doyle；我們的首席財務官 Mark McGivney；以及我們業務的首席執行官 Martin South of Marsh、Guy Carpenter 的 Dean Klisura、Mercer 的 Martine Ferland 和 Oliver Wyman 的 Nick Studer。今天早上與我們在一起的還有投資者關係主管莎拉·德威特（Sarah Dewitt）。

Marsh McLennan's second quarter was outstanding. Top line momentum continued across our business, extending our strongest run of quarterly underlying growth in over 2 decades. We generated robust top and bottom line results, topping tough comparables in the prior year.

馬什麥克倫南的第二節表現出色。我們的業務繼續保持收入增長勢頭，延續了我們 20 多年來最強勁的季度基本增長。我們產生了強勁的頂線和底線結果，超過了上一年艱難的可比性。

Underlying growth of 10% in the quarter reflects considerable strength across our organization. It represents the fifth consecutive quarter of 10% or higher top line growth, building on 13% growth a year ago.

本季度 10% 的基本增長反映了我們整個組織的強大實力。它代表連續第五個季度實現 10% 或更高的收入增長，一年前增長 13%。

Adjusted operating income of $1.3 billion was a second quarter record and grew 8% on top of 24% in the second quarter of 2021. Adjusted EPS growth of 8% is notable, given our 33% growth in the second quarter of 2021, costs related to our strategic talent investments and the rebound of expenses such as T&E.

調整後的營業收入為 13 億美元，創下第二季度的紀錄，在 2021 年第二季度的 24% 的基礎上增長了 8%。鑑於我們在 2021 年第二季度的 33% 的增長，與成本相關的調整後每股收益增長了 8%，這是值得注意的對我們的戰略人才投資和 T&E 等費用的反彈。

We also completed the highest level of quarterly share repurchases in over a decade, buying back $600 million of stock. Overall, our second quarter performance reflects the strength of Marsh McLennan, the relevance of what we do and the expertise of our colleagues.

我們還完成了十多年來最高水平的季度股票回購，回購了 6 億美元的股票。總體而言，我們第二季度的業績反映了 Marsh McLennan 的實力、我們所做工作的相關性以及我們同事的專業知識。

I'm pleased with the momentum of our second quarter results, especially when viewed in the context of a macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop that has become increasingly tense over the course of the year. And during 2022, the outlook was cautiously optimistic, reflecting expectations for above-average GDP growth.

我對我們第二季度業績的勢頭感到滿意，尤其是在宏觀經濟和地緣政治背景在一年中變得越來越緊張的背景下。而在 2022 年，前景是謹慎樂觀的，反映出對高於平均水平的 GDP 增長的預期。

Fast forward to today, and we hear more about the rising risk of recession, the highest inflation in 2 generations, geopolitical tumult, central bank hawkishness and bear markets in risk assets. We have proven to be a resilient firm, and we are prepared to act as conditions warrant. However, in the current environment, we believe it is worth noting some nuances to the macro story that remains supportive of our growth.

快進到今天，我們聽到更多關於衰退風險上升、兩代人以來最高通脹、地緣政治動盪、央行鷹派和風險資產熊市的消息。事實證明，我們是一家有韌性的公司，我們準備在條件允許的情況下採取行動。然而，在當前環境下，我們認為值得注意的是宏觀故事中仍然支持我們增長的一些細微差別。

While the real GDP growth outlook has softened, the outlook for inflation has risen. These 2 factors have somewhat offsetting impacts on insurance premiums. Even if GDP growth softens as predicted, higher inflation will increase insured values and likely cause higher loss costs.

雖然實際 GDP 增長前景已經疲軟，但通脹前景卻有所上升。這兩個因素在一定程度上抵消了保險費的影響。即使 GDP 增長如預期那樣疲軟，更高的通脹也會增加保險價值，並可能導致更高的損失成本。

Additionally, P&C insurance pricing conditions remain firm. We are helping clients navigate in an environment where underwriters remain cautious about where and how they deploy capital and terms and conditions are tight in some product lines.

此外，財產險的定價條件依然堅挺。我們正在幫助客戶在承銷商對他們在何處以及如何部署資本以及某些產品線的條款和條件嚴格的環境中保持謹慎的環境中導航。

Insurers also continue to account for the rising frequency and severity of catastrophe losses, the risk of social inflation and a firmer reinsurance market.

保險公司還繼續對巨災損失的頻率和嚴重程度、社會通脹風險和再保險市場走強等因素進行解釋。

Looking at the health benefits and workforce sectors, the U.S. labor market remains among the tightest employment environment of the past half century, even if it has tempered at the margins. The U.S. unemployment rate is back to pre-pandemic lows, and yet over 11 million jobs remain unfilled. And short-term interest rates are rising due to Central Bank tightening, which will be a benefit to fiduciary income.

從健康福利和勞動力部門來看，美國勞動力市場仍然是過去半個世紀以來最緊張的就業環境之一，即使它已經在邊緣有所緩和。美國失業率已回到大流行前的低點，但仍有超過 1100 萬個工作崗位空缺。由於央行收緊政策，短期利率正在上升，這將有利於信託收入。

Importantly, we are in the business of risk, strategy and people. When the world is unsettled, demand for our services rises. We are helping our clients adapt to this rapidly changing landscape and navigate long-term challenges as well as opportunities.

重要的是，我們從事風險、戰略和人員的業務。當世界動盪時，對我們服務的需求就會增加。我們正在幫助我們的客戶適應這種快速變化的環境，並駕馭長期的挑戰和機遇。

We are increasingly harnessing the collective power of our firm to guide clients as they deal with issues such as geopolitical risk, the pandemic, cyber threats, global supply chain disruptions, capital markets volatility, climate change, tight labor markets and new ways of working. Even if a recession does emerge, Marsh McLennan is well positioned to perform through the economic cycle.

我們越來越多地利用我們公司的集體力量來指導客戶處理諸如地緣政治風險、流行病、網絡威脅、全球供應鏈中斷、資本市場波動、氣候變化、勞動力市場緊張和新的工作方式等問題。即使確實出現了衰退，Marsh McLennan 也有能力在整個經濟周期中表現出色。

Since we went public in 1962, we have grown EPS during all recessionary periods, most notably in the severe recessions that accompanied the global financial crisis and the pandemic in 2020. We have demonstrated our ability to manage the expense base in both good and tough times and run our business to grow revenues faster than expenses.

自 1962 年上市以來，我們在所有經濟衰退時期都實現了每股收益增長，尤其是在 2020 年全球金融危機和大流行伴隨的嚴重衰退中。我們展示了我們在順境和逆境中管理費用基礎的能力並經營我們的業務以使收入增長快於支出。

We have reported adjusted operating margin improvement for 14 consecutive years. We also have a track record of delivering today while investing for the future. This includes generating attractive financial performance while at the same time investing in our talent and capabilities.

我們連續 14 年報告調整後的營業利潤率改善。我們也有在為未來投資的同時交付今天的記錄。這包括產生有吸引力的財務業績，同時投資於我們的人才和能力。

Overall, I am proud of how we are executing and delivering for clients today. And we continue to believe that over the long term, demand for our advice and solutions will remain strong given rising levels of complexity, volatility and uncertainty across the business landscape.

總的來說，我為我們今天如何為客戶執行和交付感到自豪。我們仍然相信，從長遠來看，鑑於整個業務環境的複雜性、波動性和不確定性水平不斷提高，對我們的建議和解決方案的需求將保持強勁。

With that, let me turn it over to John for his comments on the quarter.

有了這個，讓我把它交給約翰，讓他對本季度的評論。

Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone. Our second quarter results were outstanding. We had 10% underlying revenue growth with momentum across the business, and our adjusted operating income set a second quarter record. I'm pleased with our performance and grateful to our colleagues for the value they deliver to our clients, communities and shareholders.

謝謝，丹，大家早上好。我們的第二季度業績非常出色。我們的基本收入增長了 10%，整個業務增長勢頭強勁，調整後的營業收入創下第二季度的紀錄。我對我們的表現感到滿意，並感謝我們的同事為我們的客戶、社區和股東帶來的價值。

Before I discuss market trends and our performance, I want to comment on the ways in which we are harnessing the collective strength of Marsh McLennan. We are finding the intersections where we bring unique capabilities to serve our clients.

在討論市場趨勢和我們的表現之前，我想評論一下我們利用 Marsh McLennan 的集體力量的方式。我們正在尋找能夠為客戶提供獨特能力的交叉點。

Earlier this year, I mentioned that I was meeting with our colleagues to identify areas where we can have greater client impact as well as accelerate our growth. These conversations have yielded a range of ideas to drive innovation, deliver critical client solutions, become more agile and efficient and create growth and value for shareholders.

今年早些時候，我提到我正在與我們的同事會面，以確定我們可以在哪些領域產生更大的客戶影響並加速我們的發展。這些對話產生了一系列想法，以推動創新、提供關鍵的客戶解決方案、變得更加敏捷和高效，並為股東創造增長和價值。

Year-to-date, we have generated a significant number of wins involving 2 or more Marsh McLennan businesses. And every day, we see more potential to succeed together.

年初至今，我們已經取得了涉及 2 個或更多 Marsh McLennan 業務的大量勝利。每天，我們都看到了更多共同成功的潛力。

Let me share a few recent examples. Marsh and Oliver Wyman helped a regional health care client with a broad enterprise risk management strategy. Knowing Marsh has this capability, Oliver Wyman involved them in the engagement. The client was so pleased with the value the team delivered that a further opportunity was created for Mercer to consult on workforce issues.

讓我分享一些最近的例子。達信和奧緯諮詢幫助區域醫療保健客戶制定了廣泛的企業風險管理戰略。奧緯諮詢知道 Marsh 有這種能力，於是讓他們參與了這項工作。客戶對團隊提供的價值非常滿意，因此為美世創造了更多機會就勞動力問題進行諮詢。

Marsh and Mercer engaged a higher education client in the United States about enterprise risk management. The client valued our expertise and ability to facilitate conversations about total risk across all lines of insurance. As a result, Marsh was awarded the property and casualty insurance program, and Mercer secured the student health, travel and athletics business. The client has since engaged the joint team about expanding additional lines of coverage.

達信美世與美國的一位高等教育客戶就企業風險管理進行了合作。客戶重視我們的專業知識和能力，以促進有關所有保險險種的總風險的對話。因此，Marsh 獲得了財產和意外傷害保險計劃，而美世則獲得了學生健康、旅行和體育業務的保障。此後，客戶與聯合團隊就擴大額外的覆蓋範圍進行了接觸。

Guy Carpenter and Oliver Wyman also came together recently to help a large U.S. insurer with strategic advice to reposition a core product. The successful collaboration is expected to lead to additional business and further opportunities to partner on future projects. These are just a few examples of the ways we are helping clients grow faster and become more resilient.

Guy Carpenter 和奧緯諮詢最近還一起幫助一家大型美國保險公司提供戰略建議，以重新定位核心產品。成功的合作預計將帶來更多的業務和更多的機會，在未來的項目中進行合作。這些只是我們幫助客戶更快成長和更有彈性的方式的幾個例子。

Now let me provide an update on current P&C insurance market conditions. Rate increases in the marketplace persist along with continued concerns around the impact of inflation on loss cost and a tightening reinsurance market.

現在讓我提供有關當前財產和意外險市場狀況的最新信息。市場利率持續上漲，同時對通脹對損失成本的影響以及再保險市場收緊的擔憂持續存在。

The Marsh Global Insurance Market Index showed price increases of 9% year-over-year. This marks the 19th consecutive quarter of rate increases in the commercial P&C insurance marketplace.

達信全球保險市場指數顯示價格同比上漲 9%。這標誌著商業財產險市場連續第 19 個季度上漲。

Looking at pricing by line, the Marsh market index showed both global property insurance and global casualty rates up 6% on average. Global financial and professional lines, excluding cyber, increased low single digits, while cyber rates rose nearly 80% in some geographies.

按線定價，Marsh 市場指數顯示全球財產保險和全球傷亡率平均上升 6%。不包括網絡在內的全球金融和專業業務線增長了低個位數，而某些地區的網絡費率上升了近 80%。

As a reminder, our index skews to large account business. However, small and middle market insurance rates continue to rise as well although less than for large complex accounts.

提醒一下，我們的指數偏向於大賬戶業務。然而，中小型市場保險費率也繼續上升，儘管低於大型複雜賬戶。

Turning to reinsurance. Guy Carpenter's U.S. property catastrophe rate online index showed increases of approximately 15% through midyear, the largest increase since 2006. Midyear renewals reflected one of the most challenging property markets in many years with pricing driven by inflation, escalating geopolitical risk and loss experience.

轉向再保險。 Guy Carpenter 的美國房地產災難率在線指數顯示，截至年中增長了約 15%，是自 2006 年以來的最大增幅。年中續約反映了多年來最具挑戰性的房地產市場之一，其定價由通貨膨脹、不斷升級的地緣政治風險和損失經驗驅動。

Throughout the first half of the year, we saw some reinsurers take tougher positions on specific terms and conditions and shift portfolios to limit capacity in certain lines of business or geographies. We remain focused on helping our clients navigate these challenging insurance and reinsurance markets and the heightened risk environment.

在今年上半年，我們看到一些再保險公司對特定條款和條件採取更嚴厲的立場，並轉移投資組合以限制某些業務線或地區的容量。我們仍然專注於幫助我們的客戶駕馭這些充滿挑戰的保險和再保險市場以及高風險環境。

Turning to our performance in the quarter. As I noted earlier, Marsh McLennan had excellent results. In the second quarter, we had 10% underlying revenue growth with 9% in RIS and 10% in Consulting. This is a fantastic result considering the prior year second quarter underlying growth was 13%. Bottom line results were strong as well, with adjusted operating income growth of 8% in the quarter compared to 24% growth a year ago.

談到我們在本季度的表現。正如我之前提到的，Marsh McLennan 取得了出色的成績。在第二季度，我們的基本收入增長了 10%，其中 RIS 增長了 9%，諮詢增長了 10%。考慮到去年第二季度的基本增長率為 13%，這是一個了不起的結果。底線結果也很強勁，本季度調整後的營業收入增長了 8%，而去年同期增長了 24%。

Looking at Risk & Insurance Services. Second quarter revenue was a record $3.3 billion, up 5% compared with a year ago or 9% on an underlying basis. Adjusted operating income increased 9% to a second quarter record of $1 billion, and our adjusted operating margin expanded 40 basis points to 32.8%.

關注風險和保險服務。第二季度收入達到創紀錄的 33 億美元，與一年前相比增長 5%，或基本增長 9%。調整後的營業收入增長 9% 至第二季度創紀錄的 10 億美元，調整後的營業利潤率擴大 40 個基點至 32.8%。

At Marsh, revenue in the quarter was $2.8 billion, up 5% compared with a year ago. Revenue growth was 9% on an underlying basis and supported by strong renewal growth and new business.

在達信，本季度的收入為 28 億美元，與一年前相比增長 5%。在強勁的續訂增長和新業務的支持下，基本收入增長了 9%。

U.S. and Canada had 10% underlying revenue growth. This marks U.S. and Canada's fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit underlying revenue growth. International was also strong with underlying growth of 9%. Latin America grew 14%. Asia Pacific was up 11%, and EMEA was up 7%.

美國和加拿大的基本收入增長了 10%。這標誌著美國和加拿大連續第五個季度實現兩位數的基本收入增長。國際市場也表現強勁，基本增長 9%。拉丁美洲增長了 14%。亞太地區增長 11%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區增長 7%。

Guy Carpenter's second quarter revenue was $522 million, up 9% on an underlying basis driven by strong retention and new business as well as rate increases, which continued at midyear. Guy Carpenter has now achieved underlying revenue growth of 9% or higher in 4 of the last 5 quarters.

Guy Carpenter 的第二季度收入為 5.22 億美元，在強勁的保留率和新業務以及利率上漲的推動下基本增長了 9%，這一趨勢在年中繼續。 Guy Carpenter 現在在過去 5 個季度中有 4 個實現了 9% 或更高的基本收入增長。

In the Consulting segment, revenue was $2.1 billion and up 10% from a year ago on both a reported and underlying basis. This is Consulting's fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit underlying revenue growth.

在諮詢部門，收入為 21 億美元，在報告和基礎基礎上比一年前增長 10%。這是諮詢公司連續第五個季度實現兩位數的基本收入增長。

Adjusted operating income increased 4% to a second quarter high of $369 million. The adjusted operating margin was 19.3%, down 20 basis points versus a year ago.

調整後的營業收入增長 4%，達到第二季度的 3.69 億美元的新高。調整後的營業利潤率為 19.3%，比一年前下降 20 個基點。

Mercer's revenue was $1.4 billion in the quarter, up 7% on an underlying basis. Career grew 17% on an underlying basis, a record since we began reporting this line of business. We continue to see robust demand for solutions linked to workforce transformation and compensation and rewards.

美世本季度收入為 14 億美元，基本增長 7%。職業生涯在基本基礎上增長了 17%，這是自我們開始報告這一業務線以來的記錄。我們繼續看到對與勞動力轉型、薪酬和獎勵相關的解決方案的強勁需求。

Health underlying revenue growth was also excellent at 10% in the quarter, reflecting growth across all geographies. This quarter's results continue to benefit from strong demand for our solutions, accelerating new business, higher retention, increased enrolled lives from a strong labor market and medical inflation.

本季度健康基礎收入增長也非常出色，達到 10%，反映了所有地區的增長。本季度的業績繼續受益於對我們解決方案的強勁需求、加速新業務、更高的保留率、強勁的勞動力市場和醫療通脹帶來的入學人數增加。

Wealth increased 1% on an underlying basis, reflecting modest growth in defined benefits, which offset a modest decline in investments. Our assets under management were $346 billion at the end of the second quarter, down 12% from the prior year, reflecting capital market and foreign exchange headwinds.

基本財富增長 1%，反映了固定福利的適度增長，抵消了投資的適度下降。截至第二季度末，我們管理的資產為 3,460 億美元，比去年同期下降 12%，反映了資本市場和外匯逆風。

In May, Mercer announced an agreement with Westpac to acquire BT Super Trust and Advance Asset Management in Australia. This will create a $45 billion Mercer fund, helping more than 850,000 Australians invest for retirement. The transaction is expected to be completed in the first half of 2023.

5 月，美世宣布與 Westpac 達成協議，收購澳大利亞的 BT Super Trust 和 Advance Asset Management。這將創建一個價值 450 億美元的美世基金，幫助超過 850,000 名澳大利亞人投資退休。該交易預計將於2023年上半年完成。

Oliver Wyman's strong momentum continued. Revenue in the second quarter was $695 million, an increase of 16% on an underlying basis. This follows a 28% comparable in the second quarter of 2021 and reflects continued strong demand across all geographies.

奧緯諮詢的強勁勢頭仍在繼續。第二季度收入為 6.95 億美元，基本增長 16%。這是繼 2021 年第二季度 28% 的可比性之後，反映了所有地區持續強勁的需求。

Overall, I'm proud of our second quarter performance, which demonstrates the continued momentum across our business despite a more uncertain macro environment.

總體而言，我為我們第二季度的業績感到自豪，這表明儘管宏觀環境更加不確定，但我們業務的持續發展勢頭。

Now I'll turn the call over to Mark for further detail on our financial results and a discussion of our outlook for the rest of 2022.

現在，我將把電話轉給馬克，以進一步詳細了解我們的財務業績，並討論我們對 2022 年剩餘時間的展望。

Thank you, John, and good morning. As Dan and John mentioned, our strong financial performance in the second quarter reflects continued momentum across our business. We saw another quarter of double-digit underlying revenue growth and meaningful earnings growth despite tough prior year revenue and expense comparisons.

謝謝你，約翰，早上好。正如丹和約翰所說，我們第二季度強勁的財務表現反映了我們業務的持續發展勢頭。儘管上一年的收入和費用比較艱難，但我們看到了另一個季度兩位數的基本收入增長和有意義的盈利增長。

We generated GAAP EPS of $1.91 in the quarter and adjusted EPS of $1.89, up 8% from a year ago. This comes on top of adjusted EPS growth of 33% in the second quarter of last year. Operating income was $1.4 billion, and adjusted operating income was $1.3 billion. Our adjusted operating margin was 26.7% in the second quarter, up 30 basis points year-over-year.

我們在本季度產生的 GAAP 每股收益為 1.91 美元，調整後的每股收益為 1.89 美元，比一年前增長 8%。這是在去年第二季度調整後每股收益增長 33% 的基礎上實現的。營業收入為 14 億美元，調整後的營業收入為 13 億美元。我們第二季度調整後的營業利潤率為 26.7%，同比增長 30 個基點。

John covered our business operating results, so I'll cover some of the other aspects of our performance and outlook. Adjusted corporate expense was $62 million in the second quarter. Based on our current outlook, we expect approximately $142 million for the second half of the year.

約翰介紹了我們的業務運營結果，所以我將介紹我們業績和展望的其他一些方面。第二季度調整後的公司費用為6200萬美元。根據我們目前的展望，我們預計下半年的收入約為 1.42 億美元。

Foreign exchange was a headwind of $0.03 to our adjusted EPS due to the strength of the U.S. dollar against most major currencies. Year-to-date, foreign exchange represents a $0.07 headwind. Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect FX to be a headwind of $0.01 in the third quarter and $0.05 in the fourth quarter.

由於美元兌大多數主要貨幣走強，外匯對我們調整後的每股收益構成 0.03 美元的阻力。年初至今，外匯代表了 0.07 美元的逆風。假設匯率保持在當前水平，我們預計第三季度的外匯阻力為 0.01 美元，第四季度為 0.05 美元。

Our other net benefit credit was $59 million in the quarter. For the full year 2022, we expect our other net benefit credit will be about $240 million. Investment income was $2 million in the second quarter on a GAAP basis and $3 million on an adjusted basis and mainly reflects gains in our private equity portfolio.

本季度我們的其他淨福利信貸為 5900 萬美元。對於 2022 年全年，我們預計我們的其他淨福利抵免額約為 2.4 億美元。按公認會計原則計算，第二季度的投資收入為 200 萬美元，調整後的投資收入為 300 萬美元，主要反映了我們私募股權投資組合的收益。

Interest expense in the second quarter was $114 million compared to $110 million in the second quarter of 2021. Based on our current forecast, we expect interest expense to be about $118 million in each of the third and fourth quarters.

第二季度的利息費用為 1.14 億美元，而 2021 年第二季度為 1.1 億美元。根據我們目前的預測，我們預計第三和第四季度的利息費用分別約為 1.18 億美元。

Our adjusted effective tax rate in the second quarter was 23.7% compared with 24.4% in the second quarter of last year. The lower rate this quarter was driven by a decline in our underlying tax rate to 25% from 25.5% a year ago. Our tax rate in the quarter also included a benefit from favorable discrete items, the largest of which related to stock compensation.

我們第二季度調整後的有效稅率為 23.7%，而去年第二季度為 24.4%。本季度較低的稅率是由於我們的基本稅率從一年前的 25.5% 降至 25%。我們本季度的稅率還包括有利的離散項目帶來的好處，其中最大的一項與股票薪酬有關。

When we give forward guidance around our tax rate, we do not project discrete items, which can be positive or negative. Based on the current environment, it is reasonable to assume an adjusted effective tax rate of around 25% for 2022.

當我們就稅率提供前瞻性指導時，我們不會預測離散項目，這些項目可以是正面的，也可以是負面的。基於當前環境，合理假設2022年調整後有效稅率為25%左右。

Turning to capital management, our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with total debt of $11.8 billion. Our next scheduled debt maturity is March of 2023 when $350 million of senior notes mature. We continue to expect to deploy approximately $4 billion of capital in 2022 across dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases. The ultimate level of share repurchase will depend on how our M&A pipeline develops.

轉向資本管理，我們的資產負債表。我們在本季度末的總債務為 118 億美元。我們的下一個預定債務到期日是 2023 年 3 月，屆時 3.5 億美元的優先票據到期。我們繼續預計 2022 年將在股息、收購和股票回購方面部署約 40 億美元的資本。股票回購的最終水平將取決於我們的併購渠道如何發展。

Last week, we raised our quarterly dividend 10%, marking our 13th consecutive year of dividend increases. In the second quarter, we bought back 3.8 million shares of our stock for $600 million, reflecting our strong financial position and outlook for cash generation.

上週，我們將季度股息提高了 10%，這是我們連續第 13 年提高股息。在第二季度，我們以 6 億美元的價格回購了 380 萬股，反映了我們強勁的財務狀況和現金生成前景。

Our acquisition pipeline remains active. As John mentioned, we recently announced Mercer's agreement with Westpac to combine the BT and Mercer Super Trust in Australia. We are also looking forward to Mercer's acquisition of Advance Asset Management from Westpac. We are excited about these deals and how they extend Mercer's leading position in OCIO.

我們的收購渠道仍然活躍。正如約翰所提到的，我們最近宣布美世與西太平洋銀行達成協議，在澳大利亞合併英國電信和美世超級信託。我們也期待美世從西太平洋銀行收購 Advance Asset Management。我們對這些交易以及它們如何擴大美世在 OCIO 的領先地位感到興奮。

Our cash position at the end of the second quarter was $909 million. Uses of cash in the quarter totaled $1.1 billion and included $275 million for dividends, $232 million for acquisitions and $600 million for share repurchases. For the first 6 months, uses of cash totaled $1.9 billion and included $547 million for dividends, $273 million for acquisitions and $1.1 billion for share repurchases.

我們在第二季度末的現金頭寸為 9.09 億美元。本季度現金使用總額為 11 億美元，其中包括 2.75 億美元的股息、2.32 億美元的收購和 6 億美元的股票回購。前 6 個月，現金使用總額為 19 億美元，其中包括 5.47 億美元的股息、2.73 億美元的收購和 11 億美元的股票回購。

Regarding the outlook for the rest of 2022, we remain on track for a terrific year. Our top line comps get tougher in the second half, and there is greater uncertainty in the macro outlook. However, with our strong first half, we see underlying growth at the upper end of our full year guidance of mid-single digits or higher. We also continue to expect margin expansion for the full year and solid growth in adjusted EPS.

關於 2022 年剩餘時間的前景，我們仍將迎來美好的一年。我們的收入在下半年變得更加艱難，宏觀前景存在更大的不確定性。然而，憑藉我們強勁的上半年，我們看到了我們全年指引中個位數或更高的上端的潛在增長。我們還繼續預計全年利潤率將擴大，調整後每股收益將穩健增長。

And with that, I'm happy to turn it back to Dan.

有了這個，我很高興把它轉回給丹。

Thanks, Mark. Richard, we're ready to begin Q&A.

謝謝，馬克。理查德，我們準備開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question on line comes from Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們在線的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question, I was hoping to just get some color on the impact of the new hires this quarter. I think last quarter, you started to see an impact in Guy Carpenter. Did that continue? And did Marsh also see a benefit in the second quarter?

我的第一個問題是，我希望能對本季度新員工的影響有所了解。我認為上個季度，你開始看到 Guy Carpenter 的影響。那繼續嗎？ Marsh 在第二季度是否也看到了好處？

Yes. I mean, as I've said before, Elyse, Marsh McLennan, we're largely focused on building our capabilities and building our talent. It's all about the talent. It's not necessarily all about, well, what kind of book of business or what kind of production does that individual drive and how quickly can they get there.

是的。我的意思是，正如我之前所說，Elyse，Marsh McLennan，我們主要專注於培養我們的能力和培養我們的人才。這都是關於人才的。這並不一定是關於，嗯，個人推動什麼樣的商業書籍或什麼樣的生產，以及他們能多快到達那裡。

We know with our distribution, our client base, the prospects that we go after and the complexity of the world that there will be plenty of opportunities to get our talent engaged. Now having said that, yes, last year, we had a strategy to build our talent base for a variety of different reasons. We arrived at that strategy.

我們知道我們的分佈、我們的客戶群、我們追求的前景以及世界的複雜性，我們將有很多機會讓我們的人才參與進來。話雖如此，是的，去年，出於各種不同的原因，我們制定了建立人才基礎的戰略。我們得出了這個策略。

So it's a little bit more acute in terms of how does it translate to revenue. And obviously, you're seeing higher revenue from us right now across the firm. But John, do you want to give a little bit more detail about what you're seeing from the new hires?

因此，就它如何轉化為收入而言，它更加尖銳。顯然，您現在看到我們整個公司的收入都在增加。但是約翰，您想更詳細地介紹一下您從新員工那裡看到的情況嗎？

Sure, Dan. Yes, Elyse, we're very, very pleased with the hiring we did last year. As you know, we capitalize on our brand as -- our strong brand as an employer in the marketplace and some market dislocation, and it's worked out exceedingly well for us.

當然，丹。是的，Elyse，我們對去年的招聘非常非常滿意。如您所知，我們利用我們的品牌——我們作為市場雇主的強大品牌和一些市場錯位，這對我們來說非常好。

Our focus this year has been onboarding that talent in a successful way and bringing them to a level of productivity. As we noted last quarter, Guy Carpenter -- the impact on Guy Carpenter was a bit earlier as expected then it will be at March. But the talent we brought in has been very, very helpful at Marsh as well.

我們今年的重點是成功地培養這些人才，並使他們達到一定的生產力水平。正如我們在上個季度提到的，Guy Carpenter——對 Guy Carpenter 的影響比預期的要早一點，然後是 3 月份。但是我們引進的人才對 Marsh 也非常非常有幫助。

We serve our clients and teams. And I think one of the things that feels particularly good about it is just the cultural fit of these new colleagues. It's worked out very, very well. So we're on target from a productivity perspective or slightly ahead. And we feel terrific about the investments we made.

我們為客戶和團隊服務。我認為感覺特別好的一件事就是這些新同事的文化契合度。效果非常好，非常好。因此，從生產力的角度來看，我們已經達到了目標，或者略微領先。我們對我們所做的投資感到非常高興。

And I think it's really important John's comment about that we serve clients and teams. That's what we do. So there's not a number on an individual's back of what they have to produce in a given time frame. We've built the capabilities of the firm, and that is a lasting basis of increasing value that we provide to clients. Do you have a follow-up, Elyse?

我認為約翰關於我們為客戶和團隊服務的評論非常重要。這就是我們所做的。因此，個人在給定的時間範圍內必須生產的東西並沒有一個數字。我們已經建立了公司的能力，這是我們為客戶提供增加價值的持久基礎。你有後續嗎，愛麗絲？

Yes. My follow-up, so Dan, you kicked off the call discussing the potential impact of a recession. You also highlighted that inflation could be a benefit as well as the still good commercial pricing. So if we do enter into a recession, whether that's later this year or in 2023, is that an environment when you think about those moving pieces that Marsh McLennan can still continue to hit that mid-single-digit or greater organic growth target?

是的。我的跟進，所以丹，你開始了討論經濟衰退的潛在影響的電話。您還強調，通貨膨脹可能是一個好處，以及仍然良好的商業定價。因此，如果我們確實進入了衰退，無論是在今年晚些時候還是在 2023 年，當你考慮 Marsh McLennan 仍然可以繼續達到中個位數或更高的有機增長目標的那些移動因素時，這是一個環境嗎？

Yes, I'm not going to give you a guidance about our revenue next year or later. I mean, I do think it's important to note that in all past recessions since 1962, we grew adjusted EPS. And we know how to run a business in good times and in bad times. And we've proven to be a very resilient firm.

是的，我不會就明年或以後的收入為您提供指導。我的意思是，我確實認為重要的是要注意，在 1962 年以來的所有過去經濟衰退中，我們都增長了調整後的每股收益。我們知道如何在順境和逆境中經營企業。事實證明，我們是一家非常有彈性的公司。

Now there is certainly uncertainty about the economic outlook. And there's a great deal to be concerned about on a macro basis and a geopolitical basis in the world today. I mean, that's to be sure.

現在經濟前景肯定存在不確定性。在當今世界的宏觀基礎和地緣政治基礎上，有很多值得關注的事情。我的意思是，這是肯定的。

But as I noted in the script, there are other factors which tend to support our growth. And it's whether it's strong demand for our services in difficult times, whether it's inflation, as you mentioned, higher interest rates, which are direct benefits to fiduciary income and profitability.

但正如我在劇本中指出的那樣，還有其他因素往往會支持我們的成長。無論是在困難時期對我們服務的強烈需求，還是通貨膨脹，正如你提到的，更高的利率，這些都是對信託收入和盈利能力的直接好處。

And the insurance market is firm and remains firm. And if anything, reinsurance on the property side is even tightening. So we feel good about where we are positioned.

保險市場堅挺，依然堅挺。如果有的話，財產方面的再保險甚至在收緊。因此，我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。

Now as we've seen in past recessions, you could see the most discretionary parts of our business are Oliver Wyman and Mercer's career. You take them together, it's about 16% or 17% of the total firm. And they tend to be impacted the quickest in downturn. However, right now, their performance has been remarkably strong in both Oliver Wyman and Mercer career, and their pipelines remain strong. So the red flag is not going up quite yet and -- but we watch it carefully.

現在，正如我們在過去的經濟衰退中看到的那樣，您可以看到我們業務中最可自由支配的部分是奧緯諮詢和美世的職業生涯。你把它們放在一起，大約佔整個公司的 16% 或 17%。他們往往會在經濟低迷時期受到最快的影響。然而，目前，他們在奧緯諮詢和美世職業生涯中的表現都非常出色，而且他們的管道仍然強勁。所以紅旗還沒有上升，但我們仔細觀察它。

Yes, Dan, maybe one more thing to throw in. Elyse, you talked about inflation and pricing in the commercial P&C market a bit or you asked about that. But our revenue line is also exposed to medical inflation. I noted that in my prepared remarks, but medical inflation also is a tailwind for us.

是的，Dan，也許還有一件事要補充。Elyse，你談到了商業財產險市場的通貨膨脹和定價，或者你問過這個問題。但我們的收入線也受到醫療通脹的影響。我在準備好的講話中指出，但醫療通脹對我們來說也是順風。

That's a good point.

那是個很好的觀點。

(Operator Instructions) Our next one comes from Mr. Robert Cox from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個來自高盛的 Robert Cox 先生。

My first one, I just wanted to ask about the environment and noting that some notable companies have come out and said things like they're being more cautious and with respect to hiring and maybe slowing spend on professional fees. So I mean, you just touched on it a little bit, but are you seeing any of that in the impact on your runway for project-related work, I guess, particularly with respect to Oliver Wyman?

我的第一個問題，我只是想問一下環境，並註意到一些著名的公司已經站出來表示他們在招聘方面更加謹慎，並且可能會放慢專業費用的支出。所以我的意思是，你只是稍微觸及了一點，但我猜你是否看到了這些對你的項目相關工作的影響，特別是關於奧緯諮詢？

No. I mean, we -- I'll hand off to Nick in a second, but Oliver Wyman's performance has been very strong. Pipelines still look good. They're getting a lot of looks across different areas, everything from efficiency plays to growth plays. And so, Nick, do you want to give us a little bit more?

不，我的意思是，我們——我馬上就交給尼克，但奧緯諮詢的表現非常出色。管道看起來仍然不錯。他們在不同領域得到了很多關注，從效率遊戲到增長游戲。那麼，尼克，你想再給我們一點嗎？

Yes, Dan, I mean, I think you summarized it well. Robert, thanks for the question. We are delighted with the continued progress. Really across all 4 of our regions, we've been in double-digit growth, and the pipeline looks robust in all 4 of them.

是的，丹，我的意思是，我認為你總結得很好。羅伯特，謝謝你的問題。我們對持續的進步感到高興。實際上，在我們的所有 4 個地區，我們都實現了兩位數的增長，並且所有 4 個地區的管道看起來都很強勁。

We have 12 different industry practices. The majority of those have been in double-digit growth led by energy, by health care and life sciences, by retail banking, automotive and manufacturing and private capital.

我們有 12 種不同的行業慣例。其中大部分在能源、醫療保健和生命科學、零售銀行、汽車和製造業以及私人資本的帶動下實現了兩位數的增長。

And Dan gave the nod to the broad range of capabilities that we're seeing work in, again, led by some of our organizational effectiveness and operational efficiency work but also restructuring, also finance and risk. And there's quite a few countercyclical offerings in there. So we do think, over time, that, that sort of mid- to high single-digit growth will be all through the cycle average, and it's obviously been faster recently. But the pipeline still looks good as Dan noted.

Dan 對我們所看到的廣泛能力表示讚賞，這再次由我們的一些組織效率和運營效率工作以及重組、財務和風險領導。那裡有相當多的反週期產品。所以我們確實認為，隨著時間的推移，這種中高個位數的增長將貫穿整個週期平均水平，而且最近顯然更快。但正如丹所說，這條管道看起來仍然不錯。

And Robert, one thing that I'll just mention in your question around hiring or the caution around hiring within our client base, I mean, as you can see, it's been a very tight labor market, particularly in the United States. Companies are very focused on how to attract and retain colleagues, and they engage Mercer regularly in that.

還有羅伯特，我將在你關於招聘的問題中提到一件事，或者在我們的客戶群中招聘時要謹慎，我的意思是，正如你所看到的，這是一個非常緊張的勞動力市場，尤其是在美國。公司非常注重如何吸引和留住同事，並且他們定期與美世合作。

And in respect to Marsh McLennan specifically, our hiring last year where we had 6,000 net hiring, the timing of that, in retrospect, is really pretty perfect entering the environment that we are in today. And we have gone back to our more normal pattern of hiring.

特別是就 Marsh McLennan 而言，我們去年的招聘人數為 6,000 人，回想起來，進入我們今天所處的環境確實非常完美。我們又回到了更正常的招聘模式。

It's not caution, I would say. It's just a recognition that we had a large degree of hiring last year. And our hiring pace this year is very consistent with our hiring that we did in, say, 2017, 2018, 2019 if you look at those in the aggregate year by year on a CAGR basis. And so it's kind of back to normal on the hiring front. Do you have a follow-up, Robert?

我會說，這不是謹慎。這只是對我們去年大量招聘的認可。我們今年的招聘速度與我們在 2017 年、2018 年、2019 年所做的招聘非常一致，如果您按複合年增長率逐年查看這些招聘信息的話。所以在招聘方面有點恢復正常。你有後續嗎，羅伯特？

Yes. So just with respect to those comments, as you think about a potential recession, those hires that you made in 2021, there's certainly some tailwinds for the brokerage business right now. Is that -- are those tailwinds enough to kind of have that talent base hold their own in a recessionary environment? Or would you look at that and say, "This is going to be a margin headwind?"

是的。因此，就這些評論而言，當您考慮潛在的經濟衰退以及您在 2021 年招聘的員工時，現在經紀業務肯定會有一些順風。那是 - 這些順風足以讓人才基礎在經濟衰退的環境中保持自己的地位嗎？或者你會看著那個說，“這將是一個利潤逆風？”

We've grown our margins in good times and in bad times. And certainly, this is our -- this will be our 15th year of margin expansion because it's fundamentally philosophically the way we run the business. We grow revenues at a faster pace than we grow expenses. And so our margins will go up on that basis.

我們在順境和逆境中都增加了利潤。當然，這是我們的 - 這將是我們利潤率擴張的第 15 年，因為從根本上講，這是我們經營業務的方式。我們的收入增長速度快於支出增長速度。因此，我們的利潤將在此基礎上上升。

Now our underlying levels of growth have a big impact. The higher the levels of growth that we see next year or the year after, the more we'll be able to think about margins. So the tighter levels of growth would make those things more difficult.

現在，我們的潛在增長水平產生了重大影響。我們明年或後年看到的增長水平越高，我們就越能考慮利潤率。因此，更嚴格的增長水平將使這些事情變得更加困難。

But we're a company that can perform in good times and in bad times. And so things like recessions, they're a natural form of the economic cycle in a capitalist society. So we don't fret over that, and we don't plan all that much around it. We'll run our business, and we'll deliver fine results. And we'll continue to invest as we go.

但我們是一家可以在順境和逆境中表現出色的公司。所以像衰退這樣的事情，它們是資本主義社會經濟周期的一種自然形式。所以我們不會為此煩惱，也不會圍繞它做太多計劃。我們將經營我們的業務，我們將提供良好的結果。我們將繼續投資。

Our next question comes from Mr. Jimmy Bhullar from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar 先生。

So first, I just had a question following up on your comments on the pricing environment. Are you seeing any changes on the part of your clients in response to higher pricing, both in the primary side and also in reinsurance?

因此，首先，我只是對您對定價環境的評論提出了一個問題。您是否看到客戶在初級和再保險方面對更高的定價做出任何改變？

So John, why don't you take that one?

那麼約翰，你為什麼不拿那個呢？

Sure, Jimmy. Just a little bit of background, and then I'll ask Martin and Dean to talk about some of the marketplace, some observations they have around the current marketplace. So as I said earlier, prices ran up in both insurance and reinsurance.

當然，吉米。只是一點背景，然後我會請 Martin 和 Dean 談談一些市場，他們對當前市場的一些觀察。所以正如我之前所說，保險和再保險的價格都上漲了。

Insurers and reinsurers remain concerned about elevated cat losses over the last several years, including secondary perils. They're spending a lot of time better modeling and understanding secondary perils. Inflation, both core inflation, but there are concerns about social inflation as well and then the frequency of large losses.

保險公司和再保險公司仍然擔心過去幾年巨災損失增加，包括次生風險。他們花費大量時間更好地建模和理解次要風險。通脹，既有核心通脹，也有對社會通脹的擔憂，以及隨之而來的巨額虧損頻率。

Insurers led the turn in the market several years ago. Now reinsurers are pressing on price and terms and conditions. So the things have changed a bit. But as I mentioned, retail pricing, insurance pricing remains up. Martin, maybe I'd ask you to share some observations first, and then we'll ask Dean to talk about what's going on in the reinsurance market.

幾年前，保險公司引領了市場的轉變。現在，再保險公司正在對價格和條款和條件施加壓力。所以事情發生了一些變化。但正如我所提到的，零售定價、保險定價仍在上漲。馬丁，也許我會先請你分享一些觀察，然後我們會請迪恩談談再保險市場正在發生的事情。

Thank you, John. Well, the risk of repeating things just to get some numbers squared away. Pricing is strong in second quarter, which is very challenging for our clients as the question noted. Rates continue to moderate, though, in the quarter, which is good news for our clients.

謝謝你，約翰。好吧，為了得到一些數字而重複事情的風險。第二季度定價強勁，正如問題所指出的那樣，這對我們的客戶來說非常具有挑戰性。不過，本季度利率繼續放緩，這對我們的客戶來說是個好消息。

FINPRO rates are up 16%, which is really driven by cyber. Core FINPRO is actually flattish, and cyber is driving growth there. Property, up 6%; casualty, up 6%, which is just upper take over the prior quarter.

FINPRO 費率上漲了 16%，這實際上是由網絡驅動的。 Core FINPRO 實際上是平淡無奇的，而網絡正在推動那裡的增長。房地產，上漲 6%；傷亡人數，增長 6%，略高於上一季度。

And so those are the real drivers for it. It's difficult to see any inflationary impacts in the rates, although it's possible that we got a declining rate increase, which would have been faster in a normal inflationary environment. And of course, our clients have some options. We manage some captives, and they're able to retain more risk in the captive to deal with those issues.

所以這些才是它的真正驅動力。很難看到利率有任何通脹影響，儘管我們的利率增長可能會下降，在正常的通脹環境下增長速度會更快。當然，我們的客戶有一些選擇。我們管理一些俘虜，他們能夠在俘虜中保留更多風險來處理這些問題。

Thank you, Martin. And Dean, as I noted in my prepared remarks, there's some segments of the reinsurance market are capacity constrained. So maybe you could touch on that as you share some observations for Jimmy.

謝謝你，馬丁。迪恩，正如我在準備好的講話中指出的那樣，再保險市場的某些部分受到容量限制。因此，也許您可以在分享一些對 Jimmy 的觀察時談到這一點。

Yes. Thanks, John. Jimmy, I would say in terms of the reinsurance renewal, the first half, as John noted, was the most challenging property market we have seen in a number of years. John noted U.S. property cat rates increasing 15% on average through the first half of the year, the largest increase we've seen since 2006.

是的。謝謝，約翰。吉米，我想說的是，就再保險續保而言，正如約翰所說，上半年是我們多年來看到的最具挑戰性的房地產市場。約翰指出，今年上半年，美國的房地產巨災稅率平均增長了 15%，這是自 2006 年以來我們看到的最大增幅。

The June 1 midyear renewal was particularly challenging as we saw property cat capacity really constrained globally with particular challenge in the U.S. and London wholesale market. John and Dan both noted many of the macro influences impacting the reinsurance market on the property side, including rising inflation, uncertainty from the Russia-Ukraine war, climate change anxiety on behalf of our clients and reinsurers, the continued increase in global cat losses and certainly reduced retrocession protections on behalf of our reinsurers.

6 月 1 日的年中更新尤其具有挑戰性，因為我們看到全球房地產貓的產能確實受到限制，而美國和倫敦的批發市場尤其面臨挑戰。 John 和 Dan 都指出了影響房地產再保險市場的許多宏觀影響，包括通脹上升、俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭的不確定性、代表我們的客戶和再保險公司的氣候變化焦慮、全球巨災損失的持續增加以及當然代表我們的再保險公司減少了轉分保保護。

That being said, to your question, demand for our advice and solutions remains very strong as our clients try to manage volatility on their balance sheets. And our clients are seeking strategic advice on systemic risk.

話雖如此，對於您的問題，由於我們的客戶試圖管理資產負債表上的波動，對我們的建議和解決方案的需求仍然非常強勁。我們的客戶正在尋求有關係統性風險的戰略建議。

John mentioned climate, cyber, ESG and the emergence of secondary perils. Every day, we read about wildfires, convective storms, floods throughout the world. Our clients are asking us to build tools to help them manage through that volatility and understand how they manage their businesses moving forward.

John 提到了氣候、網絡、ESG 和次生風險的出現。每天，我們都會讀到世界各地的野火、對流風暴和洪水。我們的客戶要求我們構建工具來幫助他們應對這種波動並了解他們如何管理他們的業務向前發展。

Thanks, Dean.

謝謝，院長。

Just as a follow-up, there's been a lot of concern in the market about Oliver Wyman and the Consulting business with an economic slowdown. Obviously, you're not showing that in your results. But what's driving the momentum there? And what's your outlook for the business as the economy does, in fact, slow down a little bit?

緊隨其後的是，市場對奧緯諮詢和經濟放緩的諮詢業務存在很多擔憂。顯然，您沒有在結果中顯示這一點。但是是什麼推動了那裡的勢頭？隨著經濟實際上放緩了一點，您對業務的前景如何？

Yes. So we've talked to you over many years about how Oliver Wyman over long stretches of time tends to be our fastest growing segment. And we've been dramatically pleased. I mean, there's nothing that I could say negatively right now about Oliver Wyman posting a 16 on top of a 28 in the year before on the top line. But Nick, how do you see things?

是的。因此，多年來，我們一直在與您討論奧緯諮詢如何在很長一段時間內成為我們增長最快的細分市場。我們非常高興。我的意思是，對於奧緯諮詢（Oliver Wyman）在前一年的 28 分之上發布 16 分，我現在沒有什麼可以說的負面的。但是尼克，你怎麼看事情？

Yes. I mean, I think sort of broad, broad growth and robust pipeline. We are prepared in terms of our client offerings. It's important that when the cycle changes and the questions change, we are prepared with answers for those new questions. And so we've been preparing those offerings for quite a few years now.

是的。我的意思是，我認為這是一種廣泛、廣泛的增長和強大的管道。我們為客戶提供的產品做好了準備。重要的是，當週期發生變化並且問題發生變化時，我們已準備好為這些新問題提供答案。所以我們已經準備這些產品好幾年了。

I'd also say that the pandemic created very different market conditions in each of the sectors we serve. So some of our client segments have been having a very tough time for quite a long time, and others have been booming. But overall, we see no slowdown in the pipeline to date.

我還要說，大流行在我們服務的每個行業中創造了非常不同的市場條件。因此，我們的一些客戶群在很長一段時間內一直處於非常艱難的時期，而另一些則一直在蓬勃發展。但總的來說，到目前為止，我們認為管道沒有放緩。

Sure. And Martine, you want to talk about what you're seeing in Mercer generally and Mercer career specifically?

當然。 Martine，你想談談你在美世看到的總體情況，特別是美世職業生涯嗎？

Yes, absolutely. Thank you, Dan and Jimmy, for the question. In a very similar fashion, we see pipeline being strong in the Career business, Career services, in particular. And as Nick just mentioned, the pandemic instigated and accelerated so much change around the way that we work.

是的，一點沒錯。謝謝丹和吉米的提問。以非常相似的方式，我們看到職業業務，特別是職業服務的管道很強大。正如尼克剛剛提到的，這種流行病引發並加速了我們工作方式的巨大變化。

We see the labor shortages. So we currently don't see any slowdown or any evidence of it. We certainly are cautious in looking at the red flags when and where they will pop up. But there is these conditions in the market right now different questions, as Nick was saying, that our expertise can help clients answer.

我們看到勞動力短缺。因此，我們目前沒有看到任何放緩或任何跡象。我們當然會謹慎地查看危險信號何時何地出現。但正如尼克所說，目前市場上存在不同的問題，我們的專業知識可以幫助客戶回答。

Our next question on line comes from Mr. David Motemaden from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個在線問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden 先生。

Dan, you mentioned you're prepared to act as economic conditions warrant. Could you maybe just elaborate a bit on some of these actions and how far away you are from putting some of those in place, what sort of you're looking for in the environment before you start to take some of these actions?

丹，你提到你準備好在經濟條件允許的情況下行事。您能否詳細說明其中一些行動，以及您距離實施其中一些行動還有多遠，在您開始採取其中一些行動之前，您在環境中尋找什麼樣的？

Yes. I mean, ultimately, there are several things that we are working on, I would say, in over both throughout short term, midterm and long term as a way to become a more efficient organization. And that touches upon technology modernization, real estate rationalization, different ways of working for our colleagues, looking at a number of factors on operational excellence.

是的。我的意思是，最終，我們正在做幾件事，我會說，在整個短期、中期和長期的過程中，作為成為一個更有效率的組織的一種方式。這涉及到技術現代化、房地產合理化、我們同事的不同工作方式，以及對卓越運營的許多因素。

I mean, I think in general, we're still in the early to mid stages of being able to create operational improvements within the firm, which deliver higher levels of client service and lower levels of internal cost. And that's something that we're certainly very focused on.

我的意思是，我認為總的來說，我們仍處於能夠在公司內部創造運營改進的早期到中期階段，從而提供更高水平的客戶服務和更低水平的內部成本。這是我們當然非常關注的事情。

One of the things that we're looking at as well is you don't want to get too cautious too early. Our business is doing significantly well. We've been investing throughout both through the pandemic in -- as well as in 2021. And we continue to invest today.

我們也在考慮的一件事是您不想過早地變得過於謹慎。我們的業務做得非常好。在整個大流行期間以及 2021 年，我們一直在進行投資。我們今天繼續投資。

We're still in a hiring mode, although the hiring pace is more similar to 2019 than it would have been in 2021, where we had a real surge in strategic hiring. Most of our costs are pretty identifiable. You have compensation and benefits. You've got technology. You have premises or real estate, and you have T&E. So the levers that you can utilize are available.

我們仍處於招聘模式，儘管招聘速度與 2019 年相比更類似於 2021 年，2021 年我們的戰略招聘確實激增。我們的大部分成本都是可以識別的。你有補償和福利。你有技術。你有房產或不動產，你有 T&E。因此，您可以使用的槓桿是可用的。

And I have to say we have a very large variable compensation pool driven by profitability. And so it is dramatically larger than it was a decade ago or 5 years ago because our profitability is dramatically larger. And that gives us tremendous flexibility of protecting shareholders in the event that we hit some headwinds on growth or macroeconomic factors.

我不得不說，我們有一個非常大的可變薪酬池，由盈利能力驅動。所以它比十年前或五年前要大得多，因為我們的盈利能力要大得多。如果我們在增長或宏觀經濟因素方面遇到一些阻力，這為我們提供了極大的靈活性來保護股東。

So you never want to be sanguine about macro environment, and we're not. But on the other hand, I don't think there's a more resilient organization that you could actually invest in.

所以你永遠不想對宏觀環境持樂觀態度，而我們不是。但另一方面，我認為沒有一個更具彈性的組織可以讓你真正投資。

Got it. No...

知道了。不...

Do you have any follow-up?

你有後續嗎？

That makes sense. And then I guess -- just, I guess, sort of an expense-related question but more focused on the margins. So the first half is supposed to be tougher comps. I think we just got out of the first half pretty good expansion, 20 basis points of expansion in the first half of '22.

那講得通。然後我猜 - 我猜，只是一個與費用相關的問題，但更關注利潤。所以上半場應該是更艱難的比賽。我認為我們剛剛擺脫了上半年的良好擴張，22 年上半年擴張了 20 個基點。

Should we expect a tick up in that as we sort of get into the back half as some of these tougher comps are no longer as tough from an expense standpoint? Or were there any -- was there anything sort of one-off in the expense load this quarter or in the first quarter that might mean that there's a little bit shifted to the back half of the year?

當我們進入後半區時，我們是否應該期待這方面的提升，因為從費用的角度來看，這些更艱難的陣容中的一些不再那麼艱難了？或者是否有任何 - 本季度或第一季度的費用負擔是否有任何一次性的可能意味著今年下半年有一些變化？

Yes. I mean, to be clear, we are super pleased with our modest margin expansion year-to-date. I mean, come on, we hired 6,000 people on a net basis last year. And we've been able to grow our business and deliver some modest margin expansion and all the growth benefit -- and I shouldn't say all. Most of the growth benefit is in our future as opposed to in our past.

是的。我的意思是，需要明確的是，我們對年初至今的適度利潤率增長感到非常滿意。我的意思是，拜託，我們去年淨僱傭了 6,000 人。而且我們已經能夠發展我們的業務並實現一些適度的利潤率擴張和所有的增長收益——我不應該說全部。大多數增長收益都在我們的未來，而不是我們的過去。

So if we look at the back half of the third quarter, the headwind on comp and ben expense from all of the hiring begins to abate. And so there'll be -- and the growth benefit will continue. And so we don't give margin guidance by quarter, but we give it by year. And we're saying our margins are going to go up this year.

因此，如果我們看一下第三季度的後半段，所有招聘帶來的薪酬和成本方面的不利因素開始減弱。所以會有 - 增長的好處將繼續。因此，我們不會按季度提供利潤率指導，而是按年提供。我們說今年我們的利潤率會上升。

We're going to have strong EPS in 2022. And so we feel good about where we are on margins. We don't run the business obsessing about margins, frankly. We run the business looking at growing our top line and growing our profitability. And margins are an outcome of growing our revenue faster than growing our expense. But right, our -- the back half of the year will play out, and we'll deliver a strong year. We think it will be a very good year.

我們將在 2022 年實現強勁的每股收益。因此，我們對自己的利潤率感到滿意。坦率地說，我們經營的業務並不癡迷於利潤率。我們經營業務的目的是增加我們的收入並提高我們的盈利能力。利潤率是收入增長快於支出增長的結果。但是，沒錯，我們的 - 今年下半年將會結束，我們將迎來強勁的一年。我們認為這將是非常好的一年。

Our next question on line comes from Weston Bloomer from UBS.

我們的下一個在線問題來自瑞銀的 Weston Bloomer。

My first one is on your free cash flow growth. Growth was okay in the 2Q, but 1 half has been a little bit lower it looks like mostly to higher crude comp. My question is, how should we think about free cash flow growth in the second half of the year? And are there any notable headwinds or tailwinds to point out?

我的第一個是關於你的自由現金流增長。第二季度的增長還可以，但一半的增長有點低，這主要是因為原油價格上漲。我的問題是，我們應該如何看待下半年的自由現金流增長？是否有任何值得注意的逆風或順風需要指出？

Sure. Mark, why don't you take that?

當然。馬克，你為什麼不拿那個？

Sure. As we consistently say, we try not to focus too much on free cash flow growth in a particular quarter, even over the course of a particular year because there can be a lot of volatility. But when we look back over a long stretch of time, going back a decade or more, we've delivered double-digit growth in free cash flow.

當然。正如我們一貫所說，我們盡量不要過多關注特定季度的自由現金流增長，即使是在特定年份的過程中也是如此，因為可能會有很大的波動性。但是，當我們回顧很長一段時間，回溯十年或更長時間時，我們的自由現金流實現了兩位數的增長。

And our outlook for free cash flow growth is that we'll continue to deliver strong free cash flow growth. You pointed out the comparison challenge. The early part of the year is our seasonal low for cash generation because of our variable comp payouts.

我們對自由現金流增長的展望是，我們將繼續實現強勁的自由現金流增長。你指出了比較挑戰。由於我們的可變薪酬支出，今年年初是我們現金產生的季節性低點。

And the first half of this year has a tough comparable. Our variable comp pools were up substantially last year based on our significant good performance. And so you have that tough comp against the low base, and that's been the drag early in the year.

和今年上半年有著艱難的可比性。基於我們顯著的良好表現，去年我們的可變補償池大幅增加。所以你對低基數有很強的競爭力，這就是年初的拖累。

As you pointed out and not that I want to focus on cash flow in a particular quarter, but our -- in the second quarter, we were up 8%. And so -- but I think the bottom line is our outlook for cash generation remains strong.

正如你所指出的，我並不是要關注特定季度的現金流，而是我們的 - 在第二季度，我們增長了 8%。所以 - 但我認為底線是我們對現金產生的前景仍然強勁。

Do you have a follow-up?

你有後續嗎？

I do, yes. My second question is on your capital allocation throughout the year. I guess how much of the second quarter allocation for higher repurchases was maybe due to a lower share price or less opportunities or richer multiples in M&A? I was hoping you could kind of expand on the M&A environment, what you're seeing from a multiple perspective and where you could see opportunities and kind of how we should think about repurchase versus M&A in the second half?

我願意，是的。我的第二個問題是關於您全年的資本配置。我猜想第二季度用於更高回購的分配有多少可能是由於較低的股價或較少的機會或併購中更豐富的倍數？我希望你能擴展併購環境，你從多個角度看到了什麼，你可以在哪裡看到機會，以及我們應該如何看待下半年的回購與併購？

Sure. Well, clearly, multiples have gone up over the last few years. And certainly, when you look at longer stretches of time, they've gone up materially. And so we have to be more diligent in deciding as we go through pro forma statements of private companies what's really real and what will remain and how we think about the business.

當然。嗯，很明顯，過去幾年的倍數上升了。當然，當你看更長的時間時，它們已經實質性地上升了。因此，在我們審閱私營公司的備考聲明時，我們必須更加勤奮地決定哪些是真實的，哪些將是真實的，以及我們對業務的看法。

Our pipeline is pretty good. What we announced with regard to Westpac in Australia, though, has cash out the door next year, not this year, even though that is a commitment that we've made in terms of acquiring a business. So our pipeline remains strong, but we have no budget with regard to acquisitions.

我們的管道非常好。不過，我們在澳大利亞宣布的有關西太平洋銀行的消息，明年而不是今年就可以兌現了，儘管這是我們在收購企業方面做出的承諾。所以我們的管道仍然很強勁，但我們沒有關於收購的預算。

Acquisitions are a core part of our competency and what we do as a firm. And you're very right to focus on share repurchase as being somehow a duo with acquisitions. If we have a year that's particularly light on acquisitions, then we would have a stronger year of share repurchase. We favor share repurchases over building cash on the balance sheet.

收購是我們能力的核心部分，也是我們作為一家公司所做的事情。而且你非常正確地將股票回購作為收購的二重奏。如果我們有一個特別關注收購的年份，那麼我們將有一個更強勁的股票回購年份。我們贊成股票回購而不是在資產負債表上增加現金。

So you look at our dividend, which went up by 10%. That's the first call. Then we look at acquisitions. But we don't have a budget on acquisition, and we don't press on acquisitions. They occur when they occur. Then share repurchase goes in front of building cash on the balance sheet. And so yes. So, so far, first half of this year has favored share repurchase. It doesn't mean the second half will. We'll just have to see how it plays out.

所以你看看我們的股息，增長了 10%。這是第一個電話。然後我們看看收購。但我們沒有收購預算，我們也不急於收購。它們在它們發生時發生。然後股票回購在資產負債表上建立現金之前進行。所以是的。所以，到目前為止，今年上半年有利於股票回購。這並不意味著下半年會。我們只需要看看它是如何發揮作用的。

Our next question comes from [Katie] from Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 [Katie]。

This is Katie on for Ryan Tunis of Autonomous. I had a question about your guidance on foreign currency headwinds, which seems rather moderate despite foreign currency moves. Could you give us some further color on your confidence in the modest EPS impact you've guided to, particularly in the third quarter? Is it a matter of the timing of the recognition of international revenue or mix or perhaps just Marsh's recognition of international revenues in USD versus local currencies?

這是自治的瑞安突尼斯的凱蒂。我對您對外匯逆風的指導有疑問，儘管外匯走勢似乎相當溫和。您能否進一步說明您對所引導的適度每股收益影響的信心，特別是在第三季度？是確認國際收入或混合收入的時間問題，還是僅僅是達信以美元兌當地貨幣確認國際收入的問題？

Thanks, Katie. Mark, why don't you take that?

謝謝，凱蒂。馬克，你為什麼不拿那個？

Yes, sure. And when you look at our guidance over the course of the full year, so $0.07 in the first half and then $0.06 across the back half, the pretty meaningful impact when you look back over the last several. And actually, tracks pretty well with our 10-K disclosure of a 10% move in the dollar against major currencies, what that means.

是的，當然。當您查看我們全年的指導時，上半年為 0.07 美元，後半部分為 0.06 美元，當您回顧過去幾年時，這是非常有意義的影響。實際上，與我們 10-K 披露的美元兌主要貨幣波動 10% 的情況非常吻合，這意味著什麼。

For the third quarter, though, and we've talked about this in the past that there is a modest impact, and that is what we are modeling, assuming that rates stay where they are today. Really what you see in the third quarter is because of dollar placement activity in London, a weak pound actually acts as a bit of a hedge against a strong dollar relative to the other currencies.

不過，對於第三季度，我們過去曾討論過這會產生適度的影響，這就是我們正在建模的內容，假設利率保持在今天的水平。您在第三季度看到的真正情況是由於倫敦的美元安置活動，相對於其他貨幣而言，疲軟的英鎊實際上起到了對沖強勢美元的作用。

And that pound impact, that natural hedge impact, if you will, is most significant in this coming third quarter. And so what you see is a benefit from the weak pound offsetting some of the other currencies. But as we get to the fourth quarter, that's when that benefit as strong, and then we see that $0.05 in the fourth.

如果你願意的話，這種對英鎊的影響，這種自然的對沖影響，在即將到來的第三季度最為顯著。所以你看到的是疲軟的英鎊抵消了其他一些貨幣的好處。但當我們進入第四季度時，這種收益同樣強勁，然後我們看到第四季度的收益為 0.05 美元。

Got it. And as a quick follow-up, are you expecting any margin tailwind from foreign currency in the back half of the year?

知道了。作為快速跟進，您是否預計今年下半年外幣會帶來任何利潤增長？

Mark, do you want to talk about that at all?

馬克，你想談這個嗎？

Yes. Generally, not significantly. Most of our margin is going to be driven by our operating performance.

是的。一般來說，不顯著。我們的大部分利潤將由我們的經營業績驅動。

My apologies, I was muted. I would now like to turn the call back over to Dan Glaser, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan for any closing remarks.

對不起，我沉默了。我現在想將電話轉回給 Marsh McLennan 總裁兼首席執行官 Dan Glaser 以發表任何結束語。

Terrific. And I'd like to thank everyone for joining us on the call this morning. I want to thank our 83 (sic) [83,000] colleagues for their commitment, hard work and dedication to Marsh McLennan. Look forward to speaking with you all next quarter. Goodbye.

了不起。我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。我要感謝我們的 83 (sic) [83,000] 位同事對 Marsh McLennan 的承諾、辛勤工作和奉獻。期待下個季度與大家交談。再見。

And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Speakers, please stand by for your debrief.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。演講者，請等待您的匯報。