威達信集團 (MMC) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Marsh & McLennan's earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. Third quarter 2023 financial results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at marshmclennan.com.

歡迎參加 Marsh & McLennan 的財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。今天早上早些時候發布了 2023 年第三季財務業績和補充資訊。您可以在公司網站 marshmclenan.com 上取得這些資訊。

Please note that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K, all of which are available on the Marsh McLennan website.

請注意，今天發表的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，多種因素可能導致實際結果與此類陳述預期的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素的更詳細討論，請參閱我們本季的收益發布以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件，包括我們最新的 10-K 表格，所有這些都可以在 Marsh McLennan 網站上獲取。

During the call today, we may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release. (Operator Instructions)

在今天的電話會議中，我們也可能討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些指標與最接近的公認會計原則指標的調節，請參閱今天的收益報告中的時間表。 （操作員說明）

I'll now turn this over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.

現在我將把這個問題交給 Marsh McLennan 總裁兼執行長 John Doyle。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter results reported earlier today. I'm John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.

早安，感謝您加入我們討論今天早些時候報告的第三季業績。我是約翰‧道爾 (John Doyle)，達信集團 (Marsh McLennan) 總裁兼執行長。

Joining me on the call is Mark McGivney, our CFO; and the CEOs of our businesses: Martin South of Marsh, Dean Klisura of Guy Carpenter, Martine Ferland of Mercer, and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman. Also with us this morning is Sarah Dewitt, Head of Investor Relations.

與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的財務長 Mark McGivney；以及我們企業的執行長：Marsh 的 Martin South、Guy Carpenter 的 Dean Klisura、Mercer 的 Martine Ferland 和 Oliver Wyman 的 Nick Studer。今天早上與我們在一起的還有投資者關係主管莎拉‧德威特 (Sarah Dewitt)。

Before I get into our results, I'd like to take a moment to comment on the violent attacks on Israel and the tragic events unfolding in Israel and Gaza. We, along with our colleagues, condemn all acts of terror and violence and reject hatred. Our primary focus is on ensuring the safety and well-being of our colleagues in Tel Aviv and supporting colleagues around the world who have family and friends in Israel and Gaza. We're also supporting our clients as they grapple with the challenges of this conflict.

在發表我們的結果之前，我想花點時間評論一下對以色列的暴力襲擊以及以色列和加薩發生的悲慘事件。我們與我們的同事一道譴責一切恐怖和暴力行為並拒絕仇恨。我們的首要重點是確保特拉維夫同事的安全和福祉，並支持在以色列和加薩有家人和朋友的世界各地的同事。我們也為客戶應對這場衝突的挑戰提供支援。

Turning to our third quarter results. I'm very pleased with our performance. We extended our best run of quarterly underlying revenue growth in over 2 decades and reported significant growth in adjusted EPS. Top line momentum continued with 10% underlying revenue growth, on top of 8% growth in the third quarter of last year. Adjusted operating income grew 24% versus a year ago. Our adjusted operating margin expanded 170 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2022. Adjusted EPS grew 33%, and we completed $300 million of share repurchases during the quarter.

轉向我們第三季的業績。我對我們的表現非常滿意。我們延續了二十多年來最好的季度基本收入成長勢頭，並報告了調整後每股收益的顯著增長。營收持續保持成長勢頭，基礎收入成長 10%，而去年第三季成長 8%。調整後營業收入較去年同期成長 24%。與 2022 年第三季相比，我們調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 170 個基點。調整後每股收益成長 33%，我們在本季完成了 3 億美元的股票回購。

These results reflect our consistent focus on delivering in the near term, while investing for sustained growth over the long term. We are seeing the benefit of investments we've made in our talent and capabilities, and we continue to see opportunities to add high-quality acquisitions.

這些結果反映了我們一貫注重短期交付，同時投資於長期持續成長。我們看到了我們在人才和能力方面進行的投資所帶來的好處，並且我們繼續看到增加高品質收購的機會。

During the third quarter, we announced two significant transactions. In early August, Marsh McLennan Agency acquired Graham Company, a top 100 U.S. insurance and benefits broker and risk management consultancy with 215 employees and over $70 million in revenue. Graham will provide significant business insurance and employee benefits expertise for MMA's clients in the Mid-Atlantic. This acquisition is another example of us attracting the best agencies in the U.S. MMA is now a $3 billion revenue business.

第三季度，我們宣布了兩項重大交易。 8 月初，Marsh McLennan Agency 收購了 Graham Company，該公司是美國 100 強保險和福利經紀及風險管理顧問公司，擁有 215 名員工，收入超過 7,000 萬美元。 Graham 將為 MMA 位於大西洋中部的客戶提供重要的商業保險和員工福利專業知識。這次收購是我們吸引美國最好的代理商的另一個例子。 MMA 現在是一項收入 30 億美元的業務。

In the same month, Marsh announced an agreement to acquire Honan Insurance Group. This deal expands our Australian middle market business and our position across the Pacific region and Asia. Honan specializes in corporate risk and employee benefits and serves over 30,000 clients.

同月，達信宣布達成協議收購河南保險集團。這項交易擴大了我們的澳洲中間市場業務以及我們在太平洋地區和亞洲的地位。湖南專注於企業風險和員工福利，為超過 30,000 名客戶提供服務。

Beyond acquisitions, we continue to make targeted investments in talent, sales operations and go-to-market strategies. We are also investing in new technologies and solutions to bring the best of Marsh McLennan to our clients.

除了收購之外，我們也持續在人才、銷售營運和上市策略方面進行有針對性的投資。我們也投資新技術和解決方案，為我們的客戶帶來最好的達信集團。

For example, Guy Carpenter recently launched the next generation of our catastrophe analytics platform, GC AdvantagePoint. The new platform is a critical tool to help clients drive profitable risk selection and manage catastrophe exposure in a quickly evolving risk landscape.

例如，Guy Carpenter 最近推出了我們的下一代災難分析平台 GC AdvantagePoint。新平台是幫助客戶在快速變化的風險環境中推動有利可圖的風險選擇和管理災難風險的關鍵工具。

Earlier this year, Marsh announced the launch of Cyber Pathway, an integrated cybersecurity and insurance solution for U.S. small and midsized businesses that helps enhance the resilience in a volatile threat environment. The program provides access to key security tools and capabilities as well as insurance coverage that can grow as our clients evolve.

今年早些時候，達信宣布推出 Cyber​​ Pathway，這是一種針對美國中小企業的綜合網路安全和保險解決方案，有助於增強在不穩定的威脅環境中的抵禦能力。該計劃提供關鍵安全工具和功能以及保險範圍，保險範圍可隨著客戶的發展而擴大。

And we are investing in technologies that enhance our internal productivity, insights for clients and improve colleague experience. One example is LenAI, Marsh McLennan's internal AI assistant. LenAI offers the power of ChatGPT in a safe and data secure environment and is available to all colleagues.

我們正在投資技術來提高我們的內部生產力、客戶洞察力和改善同事體驗。 Marsh McLennan 的內部人工智慧助理 LenAI 就是一個例子。 LenAI 在安全且資料安全的環境中提供 ChatGPT 的強大功能，並可供所有同事使用。

Developed by our innovation center, it's also helping Oliver Wyman support clients in developing their own AI capabilities. Our approach to balancing investment and growth drives consistent exceptional performance for shareholders and positions us well to deliver new solutions and insights for our clients.

它由我們的創新中心開發，也幫助奧緯諮詢支援客戶開發自己的人工智慧功能。我們平衡投資和成長的方法為股東帶來持續的卓越業績，並使我們能夠為客戶提供新的解決方案和見解。

Turning to our strategic initiatives. The combined value proposition of our businesses continues to gain traction with clients, especially in certain industries and lines of business. For example, we are focused on enterprise risks for health care clients. Our Marsh and Mercer teams are coming together to respond to emerging challenges, such as health and safety, labor actions and workforce and liability risks from AI.

轉向我們的策略舉措。我們業務的綜合價值主張繼續吸引客戶，特別是在某些行業和業務領域。例如，我們專注於醫療保健客戶的企業風險。我們的達信和美世團隊齊心協力應對新出現的挑戰，例如健康和安全、勞工行動以及人工智慧帶來的勞動力和責任風險。

In the private equity and M&A space, Mercer, Marsh and Oliver Wyman are combining capabilities to help clients close deals and create post-transaction value. This can include due diligence, advisory on large transformations, health and benefits carve-out transactions and providing stop-loss solutions.

在私募股權和併購領域，美世、達信和奧緯諮詢正在整合能力，幫助客戶完成交易並創造交易後價值。這可以包括盡職調查、大型轉型諮詢、健康和福利剝離交易以及提供止損解決方案。

And in the insurance sector, Guy Carpenter is partnering with Mercer to provide portfolio management solutions to insurance clients. One example is our advanced balance sheet solution, which is a collaborative approach that aligns risk and return across an insurer's balance sheet. This offering has already resulted in several regional insurers choosing to partner with Mercer for OCIO.

在保險領域，Guy Carpenter 正在與美世合作，為保險客戶提供投資組合管理解決方案。一個例子是我們的高級資產負債表解決方案，這是一種協作方法，可以在保險公司的資產負債表中調整風險和回報。這項服務已經導致多家地區保險公司選擇與美世合作提供 OCIO。

We are also finding new ways to operate, reduce complexity and organize for impact. As we continue to execute on our restructuring actions, we've identified additional opportunities to rationalize technology, reduce our real estate footprint and realign our workforce. We now expect to achieve total savings of roughly $400 million by 2024, with total cost to achieve these savings of $425 million to $475 million.

我們也正在尋找新的營運方式、降低複雜性和組織影響力。隨著我們繼續執行重組行動，我們發現了更多機會來合理化技術、減少我們的房地產足跡並重新調整我們的員工。現在，我們預計到 2024 年將實現總節省約 4 億美元，實現這些節省的總成本為 4.25 億至 4.75 億美元。

Overall, the momentum we are seeing as our businesses increasingly serve clients together, combined with our restructuring efforts, offers opportunities to deliver enhanced value for clients, drive higher growth and be more efficient and connected.

總體而言，隨著我們的業務越來越多地共同為客戶服務，再加上我們的重組努力，我們看到了這種勢頭，這為我們提供了為客戶提供更高價值、推動更高成長、提高效率和聯繫的機會。

Now let me turn to the macro environment. The outlook remains uncertain. Capital market volatility has returned with the continued rise in interest rates. The trajectory of inflation and further central bank tightening remain an open question and the geopolitical situation remains volatile. Despite the environment, we continue to perform well, and we have a track record of resilience. We believe we are well positioned to perform across economic cycles and manage our business to grow revenues faster than expenses in good as well as challenging periods.

現在讓我談談宏觀環境。前景仍不明朗。隨著利率持續上升，資本市場波動再度加劇。通膨軌跡和央行進一步收緊政策仍然是一個懸而未決的問題，地緣政治局勢仍然不穩定。儘管面臨這樣的環境，我們仍然表現良好，並且擁有良好的韌性記錄。我們相信，我們處於有利地位，能夠在整個經濟週期中表現出色，並管理我們的業務，使收入成長速度快於支出成長速度，無論是在經濟繁榮時期還是充滿挑戰的時期。

Now let me turn to insurance and reinsurance market conditions. Primary insurance rates continue to increase with the Marsh Global Insurance Market Index up 3% overall, in line with the second quarter. Property rates increased 7% compared to 10% in the second quarter. Casualty pricing was up in the low single-digit range. Workers' compensation increased slightly, while financial and professional liability insurance rates were down mid-single digits. Cyber insurance pricing decreased modestly after several years of increases.

現在讓我談談保險和再保險市場狀況。主要保險費率持續上升，達信全球保險市場指數整體上漲 3%，與第二季持平。房地產價格上漲 7%，而第二季為 10%。傷亡費用上漲在較低的個位數範圍內。工人賠償略有增加，而財務和職業責任保險費率則下降了中個位數。網路保險定價經過幾年的上漲後略有下降。

In reinsurance, our clients have faced consistent challenges throughout 2023. This includes elevated cat losses, core and social inflation and continued political instability. As we look to January 1, the market appears to be more orderly than last year, but we expect underwriting discipline to continue. On the property side, we expect firm pricing, but a more stable market with adequate capacity and increased reinsurer appetite. In casualty, the market is more cautious with reinsurers assessing prior year loss development and inflation. We expect capacity to remain stable.

在再保險領域，我們的客戶在 2023 年面臨持續的挑戰。這包括巨災損失增加、核心和社會通貨膨脹以及持續的政治不穩定。展望 1 月 1 日，市場似乎比去年更加有序，但我們預計承保紀律將繼續下去。在房地產方面，我們預期定價堅挺，但市場更穩定，容量充足，再保險公司的胃口也會增加。在意外險方面，市場對再保險公司評估上一年損失發展和通膨的態度更加謹慎。我們預計產能將保持穩定。

Overall, clients will need thorough preparation and a proactive strategy to achieve desired outcomes. We are well positioned to help our clients navigate these dynamic market conditions.

整體而言，客戶需要充分的準備和積極主動的策略才能實現預期的結果。我們有能力幫助我們的客戶應對這些動態的市場狀況。

Now let me turn to our third quarter financial performance. We generated adjusted EPS of $1.57, which is up 33% from a year ago. On an underlying basis, revenue grew 10%. Underlying revenue grew 11% in RIS and 9% in Consulting. Marsh was up 8%, Guy Carpenter 8%, Mercer 8%, and Oliver Wyman grew 12%. Overall, the third quarter saw adjusted operating income growth of 24% and our adjusted operating margin expanded 170 basis points year-over-year.

現在讓我談談我們第三季的財務表現。調整後每股收益為 1.57 美元，比去年同期成長 33%。基本收入成長了 10%。 RIS 的基礎收入成長了 11%，諮詢業務的基礎收入成長了 9%。 Marsh 上漲 8%，Guy Carpenter 上漲 8%，Mercer 上漲 8%，Oliver Wyman 上漲 12%。整體而言，第三季調整後營業收入成長 24%，調整後營業利益率較去年同期擴大 170 個基點。

For the 9 months, consolidated revenue grew 10% on an underlying basis. Adjusted operating income grew 17% and our adjusted operating margin expanded 130 basis points. Adjusted EPS was $6.31, up 17% from a year ago. With our outstanding results in the third quarter and year-to-date, we remain on track for a terrific year. Based on our outlook today and assuming current market conditions persist, we now expect full year underlying revenue growth to be 9% to 10%. We also continue to expect margin expansion for the full year and strong growth in adjusted EPS.

過去 9 個月，綜合收入基本上成長了 10%。調整後營業收入成長 17%，調整後營業利益率擴大 130 個基點。調整後每股收益為 6.31 美元，比去年同期成長 17%。憑藉第三季和年初至今的出色業績，我們將繼續邁向輝煌的一年。根據我們今天的展望並假設當前的市場狀況持續下去，我們現在預計全年基本收入成長率為 9% 至 10%。我們也持續預期全年利潤率將擴大，調整後每股收益將強勁成長。

Finally, I want to provide an update on our recently announced leadership changes. Martine Ferland, CEO of Mercer, will retire on March 31 of next year. Pat Tomlinson has been appointed President of Mercer, where he will work closely with Martine through a transition period and have responsibility for Mercer's global health, wealth and career practices. Pat will succeed Martine as President and CEO of Mercer upon her retirement.

最後，我想提供有關我們最近宣布的領導層變動的最新資訊。美世執行長 Martine Ferland 將於明年 3 月 31 日退休。 Pat Tomlinson 已被任命為美世總裁，他將在過渡期間與 Martine 密切合作，並負責美世的全球健康、財富和職業實踐。帕特將在馬丁退休後接替她擔任美世總裁兼執行長。

I'm excited to work with Pat in his new role. He brings an outstanding track record as a leader and strong knowledge of our business. He currently serves as Marsh McLennan U.S. and Canada CEO and Mercer President of U.S. and Canada. Pat has 26 years of industry experience, including the last 9 years in leadership roles at Mercer.

我很高興能與帕特一起擔任他的新角色。他作為領導者擁有出色的業績記錄，並且對我們的業務有深入的了解。他目前擔任 Marsh McLennan 美國和加拿大執行長以及美世美國和加拿大總裁。 Pat 擁有 26 年的行業經驗，其中過去 9 年在美世擔任領導職務。

I also want to thank Martine for her leadership. In her 5 years as CEO of Mercer, she delivered strong growth, built and cultivated our talent and delivered impact for our clients. This announcement is another example of our depth of exceptional talent and focus on succession planning.

我還要感謝 Martine 的領導。在擔任美世執行長的 5 年裡，她實現了強勁的成長，培養和培養了我們的人才，並為我們的客戶帶來了影響。此次宣布是我們擁有豐富的傑出人才和專注於繼任計畫的另一個例子。

Overall, I am proud of our third quarter performance, which demonstrates continued execution of our strategy and continued momentum across our business. I'm grateful to our colleagues for their focus and determination and the value they deliver to our clients, shareholders and communities.

總的來說，我對我們第三季的業績感到自豪，這表明我們策略的持續執行和整個業務的持續發展勢頭。我感謝我們的同事的專注和決心，以及他們為我們的客戶、股東和社區帶來的價值。

With that, let me turn it over to Mark for a more detailed review of our results.

接下來，讓我把它交給馬克，讓他對我們的結果進行更詳細的審查。

Thank you, John, and good morning. Our third quarter results were outstanding, continued momentum in underlying growth, strong double-digit adjusted EPS growth and significant margin expansion. Our consolidated revenue increased 13% to $5.4 billion, with underlying growth of 10%. Operating income was $996 million and adjusted operating income was $1.1 billion, up 24% from a year ago.

謝謝你，約翰，早安。我們的第三季業績非常出色，基本成長動能持續強勁，調整後每股盈餘實現兩位數強勁成長，利潤率顯著擴張。我們的綜合收入成長了 13%，達到 54 億美元，基本成長率為 10%。營業收入為 9.96 億美元，調整後營業收入為 11 億美元，較去年同期成長 24%。

Our adjusted operating margin increased 170 basis points to 21.3%. GAAP EPS was $1.47 and adjusted EPS was $1.57, up 33% over last year. Note that adjusted EPS in the third quarter included a $0.10 discrete tax benefit from the release of the valuation allowance on foreign deferred tax assets. Even without this benefit, our adjusted EPS grew 25% in the quarter.

調整後的營業利益率增加了 170 個基點，達到 21.3%。 GAAP 每股收益為 1.47 美元，調整後每股收益為 1.57 美元，比去年增長 33%。請注意，第三季調整後每股收益包括因釋放外國遞延稅資產估值備抵而帶來的 0.10 美元離散稅收優惠。即使沒有這項收益，我們調整後的每股盈餘在本季仍成長了 25%。

For the first 9 months of 2023, underlying revenue growth was 10%. Adjusted operating income grew 17% to $4.4 billion. Our adjusted operating margin increased 130 basis points and adjusted EPS increased 17% to $6.31. Looking at Risk and Insurance Services, third quarter revenue was $3.2 billion, up 12% from a year ago or 11% on an underlying basis. This result marks the tenth consecutive quarter of 8% or higher underlying growth in RIS and continues the best stretch of growth in nearly 2 decades.

2023 年前 9 個月，基本收入成長率為 10%。調整後營業收入成長 17%，達到 44 億美元。調整後的營業利潤率增加了 130 個基點，調整後的每股盈餘增加了 17%，達到 6.31 美元。在風險和保險服務方面，第三季營收為 32 億美元，比去年同期成長 12%，基本成長 11%。這一結果標誌著 RIS 連續第十個季度實現 8% 或更高的基本成長，並延續了近 20 年來的最佳成長勢頭。

Operating income increased 21% to $640 million. Adjusted operating income increased 19% to $671 million and our adjusted operating margin expanded 100 basis points to 23.4%. For the first 9 months of the year, revenue in RIS was $10.8 billion. With underlying growth of 12%, adjusted operating income increased 18% to $3.3 billion. Margin increased 150 basis points to 32.6%.

營業收入成長 21%，達到 6.4 億美元。調整後營業收入成長 19%，達到 6.71 億美元，調整後營業利益率成長 100 個基點，達到 23.4%。今年前 9 個月，RIS 的營收為 108 億美元。基本成長率為 12%，調整後營業收入成長 18%，達到 33 億美元。利潤率增加 150 個基點至 32.6%。

At Marsh, revenue in the quarter was $2.7 billion, up 9% from a year ago or 8% on an underlying basis. This comes on top of 8% growth in the third quarter of last year. Growth in the third quarter reflected solid new business and strong retention. In U.S. and Canada, underlying growth was 6% for the quarter, led by strong growth in MMA.

達信集團本季營收為 27 億美元，比去年同期成長 9%，基本成長 8%。去年第三季成長 8%。第三季的成長反映了穩固的新業務和強勁的保留率。在美國和加拿大，在 MMA 強勁成長的帶動下，本季基本成長率為 6%。

In International, underlying growth was 10% and comes on top of 11% in the third quarter of last year. Latin America was up 14%. Asia Pacific was up 10% and EMEA grew 9%. For the first 9 months of the year, Marsh's revenue was $8.5 billion, with underlying growth of 9%. U.S. and Canada grew 7% and International was up 10%.

國際業務的基本成長率為 10%，高於去年第三季的 11%。拉丁美洲成長了 14%。亞太地區成長 10%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長 9%。今年前 9 個月，達信的收入為 85 億美元，基本成長率為 9%。美國和加拿大成長了 7%，國際成長了 10%。

Guy Carpenter's revenue was $359 million in the quarter, up 9% or 8% on an underlying basis, driven by strong growth across our global specialties and regions. For the first 9 months of the year, Guy Carpenter generated $2 billion of revenue with 10% underlying growth.

Guy Carpenter 本季的營收為 3.59 億美元，在我們全球專業和地區強勁成長的推動下，基本上成長了 9% 或 8%。今年前 9 個月，Guy Carpenter 創造了 20 億美元的收入，基本成長率為 10%。

In the Consulting segment, third quarter revenue was $2.2 billion, up 13% from a year ago or 9% on an underlying basis. Consulting operating income was $424 million. Adjusted operating income increased 24% to $447 million, and the adjusted operating margin expanded 170 basis points to 20.8%.

在諮詢領域，第三季營收為 22 億美元，比去年同期成長 13%，基本成長 9%。諮詢營業收入為 4.24 億美元。調整後營業收入成長 24%，達到 4.47 億美元，調整後營業利益率擴大 170 個基點，達到 20.8%。

For the first 9 months of 2023, consulting revenue was $6.4 billion, with underlying growth of 7%. Adjusted operating income increased 11% to $1.3 billion, and the adjusted operating margin expanded 50 basis points to 20.1%. Mercer's revenue was $1.4 billion in the quarter, up 8% on an underlying basis. This was Mercer's best quarter of underlying growth in 15 years.

2023 年前 9 個月，諮詢收入為 64 億美元，基本成長 7%。調整後營業收入成長 11%，達到 13 億美元，調整後營業利益率擴大 50 個基點，達到 20.1%。美世公司本季的營收為 14 億美元，年增 8%。這是美世 15 年來基本成長最好的季度。

Wealth grew 7%, driven by continued demand in defined benefits consulting and higher growth in investment management. Our assets under management were $379 million at the end of the third quarter, up 19% compared to the third quarter of last year and down 4% sequentially. Year-over-year growth was driven by our transaction with Westpac, a rebound in capital markets and positive net flows.

在固定福利諮詢的持續需求和投資管理的更高成長的推動下，財富增加了 7%。截至第三季末，我們管理的資產為 3.79 億美元，比去年第三季成長 19%，比上一季下降 4%。年比成長是由我們與西太平洋銀行的交易、資本市場的反彈和正淨流量所推動的。

Health underlying growth was 8% and reflected strength in all segments and regions. Career revenue increased 7%, on top of 15% growth in the third quarter of last year. We continue to see growth in rewards and talent strategy. For the first 9 months of the year, revenue at Mercer was $4.1 billion, with 7% underlying growth. Oliver Wyman's revenue in the quarter was $781 million, an increase of 12% on an underlying basis that reflected strength in the Middle East and Europe.

健康基礎成長率為 8%，反映了所有細分市場和地區的實力。職業收入在去年第三季成長 15% 的基礎上成長了 7%。我們繼續看到獎勵和人才策略的成長。今年前 9 個月，美世的營收為 41 億美元，基本成長率為 7%。奧緯諮詢本季營收為 7.81 億美元，基本成長 12%，反映了中東和歐洲的實力。

For the first 9 months of the year, revenue at Oliver Wyman was $2.3 billion, an increase of 8% on an underlying basis. Foreign exchange was a $0.01 headwind to EPS in the third quarter. Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect FX will have an immaterial effect on fourth quarter earnings.

今年前 9 個月，奧緯諮詢的收入為 23 億美元，基本上成長了 8%。外匯對第三季每股收益造成 0.01 美元的阻力。假設匯率保持在當前水平，我們預計外匯將對第四季度收益產生無關緊要的影響。

We reported $52 million of total restructuring costs in the quarter, approximately $37 million of which relates to the program we announced in the fourth quarter last year. These charges include costs related to severance, lease exits and streamlining our technology environment. We've continued to pursue efficiencies under this program, and our outlook for savings has increased.

我們報告本季的重組總成本為 5,200 萬美元，其中約 3,700 萬美元與我們去年第四季宣布的計劃有關。這些費用包括與遣散費、租約退出和簡化我們的技術環境相關的費用。我們在該計劃下繼續追求效率，並且我們的節省前景有所增加。

As John noted, we now expect total charges of $425 million to $475 million and expect total savings of roughly $400 million, of which approximately $225 million will be realized in 2023.

正如約翰指出的那樣，我們現在預計總費用為 4.25 億至 4.75 億美元，預計總節省額約為 4 億美元，其中約 2.25 億美元將在 2023 年實現。

To date, we have incurred approximately $325 million of charges under this program. We currently expect to incur the majority of the remaining charges by the end of 2023 and to realize the bulk of the remaining savings in 2024. Our other net benefit credit was $62 million in the quarter. For the full year 2023, we expect our other net benefit credit will be about $240 million.

迄今為止，我們已根據該計劃產生了約 3.25 億美元的費用。目前，我們預計到 2023 年底將承擔大部分剩餘費用，並在 2024 年實現大部分剩餘節省。本季我們的其他淨收益信貸為 6,200 萬美元。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計其他淨收益信貸將約為 2.4 億美元。

Investment income was $1 million in the third quarter on a GAAP basis and $2 million on an adjusted basis. Interest expense in the third quarter was $145 million, up from $118 million in the third quarter of 2022, reflecting higher levels of debt and higher interest rates. Based on our current forecast, we expect approximately $157 million of interest expense in the fourth quarter.

以公認會計準則計算，第三季投資收益為 100 萬美元，調整後投資收益為 200 萬美元。第三季的利息支出為 1.45 億美元，高於 2022 年第三季的 1.18 億美元，反映出較高的債務水準和較高的利率。根據我們目前的預測，我們預計第四季的利息支出約為 1.57 億美元。

Our effective adjusted tax rate in the third quarter was 20.5% compared with 24.6% in the third quarter of last year. Our tax rate in both periods benefited from favorable discrete items. The largest discrete item this quarter was a $48 million release of a valuation allowance on foreign deferred tax assets.

我們第三季的有效調整稅率為20.5%，去年第三季為24.6%。我們在這兩個時期的稅率都受益於有利的離散項目。本季最大的離散項目是釋放 4,800 萬美元的外國遞延稅資產估價備抵。

Excluding discrete items, our effective adjusted tax rate was approximately 25.5%. When we give forward guidance around our tax rate, we do not project discrete items, which can be positive or negative. Based on the current environment, it is reasonable to assume a tax rate of around 25.5% for 2023.

不包括離散項目，我們的有效調整稅率約為 25.5%。當我們就稅率提供前瞻性指引時，我們不會預測離散項目，這些項目可能是正數，也可能是負數。根據目前的環境，假設2023年稅率在25.5%左右是合理的。

Turning to capital management and our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with total debt of $13.6 billion. This includes the $1.6 billion of senior notes we issued in September. Our next scheduled debt maturities are in March 2024, when $1 billion of senior notes mature and in May, when another $600 million of senior notes come due.

轉向資本管理和我們的資產負債表。本季結束時，我們的債務總額為 136 億美元。這包括我們在 9 月發行的 16 億美元優先票據。我們下一次計劃的債務到期日為 2024 年 3 月，屆時 10 億美元的優先票據到期，5 月份另外 6 億美元的優先票據到期。

We also recently took the opportunity to increase borrowing capacity under our credit facility, increasing the size of the facility to $3.5 billion from $2.8 billion and extending the term of the facility by 2.5 years to 2028. This was a prudent step to increase our access to short-term funding given the significant growth in our business since we last renewed the facility in April 2021.

我們最近也藉此機會提高了信貸安排下的借貸能力，將該安排的規模從28 億美元增加到35 億美元，並將該安排的期限延長2.5 年至2028 年。這是增加我們獲得貸款的機會的審慎步驟。鑑於自 2021 年 4 月上次更新融資以來我們的業務顯著增長，我們需要短期融資。

We are also pleased that Moody's upgraded our senior unsecured debt rating to A3 in September. We continue to expect to deploy approximately $4 billion of capital in 2023 across dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases. Our cash position at the end of the third quarter was $2.9 billion. Uses of cash in the quarter totaled $1 billion, included $353 million for dividends, $368 million for acquisitions and $300 million for share repurchases.

我們也很高興穆迪在 9 月將我們的優先無擔保債務評級提升至 A3。我們仍預期 2023 年將部署約 40 億美元的資本，用於股利、收購和股票回購。第三季末我們的現金部位為 29 億美元。本季現金使用總額為 10 億美元，其中 3.53 億美元用於股息，3.68 億美元用於收購，3 億美元用於股票回購。

For the first 9 months, uses of cash totaled $2.9 billion and included $944 million for dividends, $1.1 billion for acquisitions and $900 million for share repurchases.

前 9 個月，現金使用總額為 29 億美元，其中包括 9.44 億美元用於股利、11 億美元用於收購以及 9 億美元用於股票回購。

Overall, we remain on track for a terrific 2023. Based on our outlook today and assuming current conditions persist, we expect to generate 9% to 10% full year underlying revenue growth, strong growth in adjusted EPS and to report margin expansion for the 16th consecutive year.

總體而言，我們仍有望實現輝煌的2023 年。根據我們今天的展望並假設當前狀況持續下去，我們預計全年基本收入增長9% 至10%，調整後每股收益強勁增長，並報告16 年利潤率擴張連續一年。

And with that, I'm happy to turn it back to John.

至此，我很高興將其轉回給約翰。

Thank you, Mark. Operator, we are ready to begin Q&A.

謝謝你，馬克。接線員，我們準備開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自愛麗絲·格林斯潘與富國銀行的線路。

My first question is on the U.S./Canada within Marsh. Organic of 6%, but that is a slowdown from where you guys were in the first part of the year. Can you just give a little bit more color on what's causing the slowdown? And then I think in the introductory comments, you guys mentioned that MMA saw strong growth. So can you give us a sense of the growth within MMA and the growth outside of MMA within that segment?

我的第一個問題是關於達信內部的美國/加拿大。有機成長率為 6%，但這比今年上半年有所放緩。能否進一步說明經濟放緩的原因？然後我想在介紹性評論中，你們提到 MMA 看到了強勁的成長。那麼您能否讓我們了解該細分市場內 MMA 內部的成長以及 MMA 之外的成長？

Sure, Elyse. Thanks for the question. Again, overall, I was quite pleased with the growth -- the revenue growth in the quarter. We had good growth at Marsh. Best growth at Mercer in 15 years. And again, strong performance at Guy Carpenter and Oliver Wyman.

當然，愛麗絲。謝謝你的提問。總的來說，我再次對本季的成長——收入成長感到非常滿意。我們在達信取得了良好的發展。美世 15 年來的最佳成長。蓋·卡彭特和奧緯諮詢的強勁表現再次體現。

Marsh U.S., inclusive of MMA, and I would also note our MGA operation had a good quarter as well. Growth was strong. Marsh U.S. was up 6% versus 5% a year ago. Again, we caution you to look at growth at any one -- at any one quarter. We think we're well positioned, and our team is executing well.

Marsh U.S.（包括 MMA）和我還要指出的是，我們的 MGA 業務也有一個不錯的季度。增長強勁。達信美國公司的股價較一年前的 5% 上漲了 6%。我們再次提醒您注意任何一個季度的成長。我們認為我們處於有利位置，我們的團隊執行得很好。

Martin, do you have any other color on what impacted growth at Marsh this quarter?

馬丁，對於影響達信本季成長的因素，您還有什麼其他看法嗎？

Yes. Thank you, John. As you said, very strong growth for Marsh across the board in International and North America. As you said, we don't comment specifically on MMA, but they've had a good quarter. The growth in the MGA business was strong. There's partly some impact from the capital markets and some moderating growth in financial construction, cyber lines reflecting some pricing pressures. But as you say, we don't look at this on a quarter-over-quarter basis. We look it over a longer period of time, and we feel very positive about the U.S. business and the Canadian business.

是的。謝謝你，約翰。正如您所說，達信在國際和北美地區的全面成長非常強勁。正如您所說，我們不會具體評論 MMA，但他們的季度表現良好。 MGA 業務成長強勁。部分原因是資本市場的影響以及金融建設成長放緩，網路線反映了一些定價壓力。但正如你所說，我們不會按季度來看待這個問題。我們從較長時期來看，我們對美國業務和加拿大業務感到非常樂觀。

Thanks, Martin. Elyse, do you have a follow-up?

謝謝，馬丁。 Elyse，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. And then my second question. So on the revised savings program, is there a way to give us a sense -- you mentioned, John, it came from rationalizing tech, real estate and realigning the workforce. How much each of those buckets are contributing to the extra savings? And then is it still fair to assume that most of the savings that you're expecting this year should be falling to the bottom line?

是的。然後是我的第二個問題。那麼，關於修訂後的儲蓄計劃，有沒有一種方法可以讓我們有所了解——約翰，你提到，它來自於技術、房地產的合理化和勞動力的重新調整。每個桶子為額外節省貢獻了多少？那麼，假設您今年預期的大部分節省會下降到底線是否仍然公平？

So really, backing up a little bit, Elyse. As our businesses operated more closely together, we've just identified additional opportunities. They're largely in the same areas, right? It's around realigning our workforce and mostly in functions, I would say, as opposed to market-facing workforce talent, real estate and technology.

真的，退後一點，Elyse。隨著我們的業務運作更加緊密，我們剛剛發現了更多機會。他們大部分都在相同的地區，對嗎？我想說，這是圍繞著重新調整我們的勞動力，主要是在職能方面，而不是面向市場的勞動力人才、房地產和技術。

We've not broken it out by group, but the costs are severance, lease terminations, and streamlining technology. So again, we're excited about some of the opportunities that we've uncovered and I'm proud of the team We're executing against them.

我們沒有按組別進行細分，但成本包括遣散費、終止租賃和簡化技術。再說一次，我們對我們發現的一些機會感到興奮，我為我們正在執行的團隊感到自豪。

And our next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的吉米·布拉爾 (Jimmy Bhullar)。

So first question on the reinsurance market. I think you mentioned the word firm in terms of pricing. And are you expecting prices to be up further from these current levels? Or firm just means that they'll be somewhat stable? And then how do you think that will affect your growth? At Guy Carpenter, you've grown double digits this year. I'm not sure how much of that is because of the tailwind from pricing?

第一個問題是關於再保險市場的。我想你在定價方面提到了「堅定」這個詞。您預計價格會比目前的水平進一步上漲嗎？或者堅定只是意味著他們會有點穩定？那麼您認為這會如何影響您的成長？在 Guy Carpenter，今年你的業績成長了兩位數。我不確定其中有多少是由於定價的推動？

Yes. Thanks, Jimmy. I did use the word firm. There's no question. Our team at Guy Carpenter has done a terrific job this year, helping our clients navigate what's a challenging market. As I said, I expect that the market on January 1 will certainly be more orderly than last year.

是的。謝謝，吉米。我確實用了「堅定」這個詞。毫無疑問。我們 Guy Carpenter 的團隊今年做得非常出色，幫助我們的客戶應對充滿挑戰的市場。正如我所說，我預計1月1日的市場肯定會比去年更有序。

But there are concerns, both in the insurance and reinsurance market about rising loss costs. And so we don't want to project and can't really project with accuracy and there's still a quarter to run. We expect underwriting discipline to remain. But with that, maybe, Dean, you could offer some thoughts on Guy Carpenter and what we think of the market?

但保險和再保險市場都對損失成本上升表示擔憂。因此，我們不想進行預測，也無法真正準確地進行預測，而且還有一個季度要運行。我們預計承保紀律將繼續存在。但迪恩，也許你可以提供一些關於蓋伊·卡彭特的想法以及我們對市場的看法？

Thanks, John. And Jimmy, maybe I'll give you a little color between property cat and casualty as John mentioned. As John noted, we expect challenging market conditions to persist for property cat at the upcoming January 1 renewal, as John noted, driven by inflation.

謝謝，約翰。吉米，也許我可以給你一點關於財產貓和傷亡者之間的區別，正如約翰所提到的。正如約翰所指出的那樣，我們預計在即將到來的 1 月 1 日續約期間，受通貨膨脹的推動，房地產貓將繼續面臨充滿挑戰的市場狀況。

As you're reading about, I mean, cat losses continue to be very elevated. Many attritional losses. Many billion dollar plus events this year. Political instability continues. We do expect pricing to remain firm in property cat. It will vary region by region. It won't be what we saw last year, as an example, in the U.S. and Europe, but we do think that firmness will be there.

正如您所讀到的，我的意思是，貓的損失仍然非常嚴重。許多消耗性損失。今年的活動價值數十億美元。政治不穩定仍在繼續。我們確實預計房地產價格將保持堅挺。它會因地區而異。例如，這不會是我們去年在美國和歐洲看到的情況，但我們確實認為堅定將會存在。

We do expect additional capacity and an increased appetite from reinsurers to write more business, particularly at higher attaching property cat layers. But I think the key is we expect reinsurers to continue to exhibit that discipline on attachment points, pricing and terms, and I don't see anything going backwards.

我們確實預計再保險公司將有更多的產能和更大的意願來承保更多業務，特別是在更高的附加財產貓層。但我認為關鍵是我們期望再保險公司繼續在附加點、定價和條款方面表現出這種紀律，而且我認為不會有任何倒退。

As John noted, we think property cat capacity in the market will remain adequate. And as John noted, we think it will be a more manageable renewal for our clients. without that significant supply/demand imbalance and dislocation that we saw last year. And we do expect increased demand for our clients to buy more reinsurance and particularly key regions like Europe.

正如約翰指出的那樣，我們認為市場上的房地產容量將保持充足。正如約翰指出的那樣，我們認為這對我們的客戶來說將是更易於管理的更新。沒有我們去年看到的嚴重的供需失衡和混亂。我們確實預期客戶購買更多再保險的需求將會增加，尤其是歐洲等關鍵地區。

On the casualty side, for U.S. Casualty, as John noted, the market is trending very cautiously. And all of our meetings with reinsurers this fall, everybody expressed concern with prior year loss development in U.S. casualty and certain lines, again, driven by economic and social inflation. And we do expect some downward pressure from reinsurers on seating commissions for our clients with quota share contracts and certain casualty lines. But in casualty, we do expect capacity to remain adequate.

在傷亡方面，正如約翰所指出的那樣，對於美國傷亡人員來說，市場趨勢非常謹慎。今年秋天，我們與再保險公司舉行的所有會議中，每個人都對上一年美國傷亡事故和某些險種的損失發展表示擔憂，這再次是由經濟和社會通膨推動的。我們確實預計，再保險公司對持有配額份額合約和某些意外險額度的客戶的席位佣金會產生一些下行壓力。但在傷亡方面，我們確實預期容量將保持充足。

The cost of risk, Jimmy is rising, and it's up to us to find the best solutions in the market for both our insurance and reinsurance clients. And so I think we're well positioned to do that.

吉米，風險成本正在上升，我們有責任為我們的保險和再保險客戶找到市場上最好的解決方案。所以我認為我們有能力做到這一點。

Do you have a follow-up?

你有後續行動嗎？

Just on Oliver Wyman. I think typically, you think of Oliver Wyman as being sensitive to economic uncertainty. And this year, the business has shown a lot of momentum.

就在奧緯諮詢。我認為通常情況下，您認為奧緯諮詢對經濟不確定性很敏感。今年，該業務表現出了強勁的勢頭。

So maybe -- I know you won the UBS, I don't know UBS Credit Suisse integration contract, but I'm not sure how material that is. But what's really driving Oliver Wyman? And what's your sort of pipeline look like? And how do you think about it performing if the economy does, in fact, slow down?

所以也許——我知道你贏得了瑞銀，我不知道瑞銀瑞士信貸整合合同，但我不確定這有多重要。但真正推動奧緯諮詢的因素是什麼？你們的管道是什麼樣的？如果經濟確實放緩，您如何看待它的表現？

Yes, thanks, Jimmy. Oliver Wyman has been more sensitive to GDP over time, but it's also been a faster growing part of our business over time as well. And after a relatively slow start to the year, Oliver Wyman has had a terrific run, is now having strong growth year-to-date and a very, very strong quarter.

是的，謝謝，吉米。隨著時間的推移，奧緯諮詢對 GDP 越來越敏感，但隨著時間的推移，它也是我們業務成長較快的部分。經過今年相對緩慢的開局後，奧緯諮詢的業績表現出色，今年迄今成長強勁，季度業績非常強勁。

So Nick, maybe you can share with Jimmy some color on how things look at Oliver Wyman.

尼克，也許你可以與吉米分享一些關於奧緯諮詢的看法。

Thank you, John, and thank you, Jimmy. Yes, let me enlarge on that a little bit. It's definitely not an easy environment for discretionary spending in our clients. I still see a fairly wide range of possible economic paths.

謝謝你，約翰，謝謝你，吉米。是的，讓我稍微放大一下。對於我們的客戶來說，這絕對不是一個輕鬆的自由支出環境。我仍然看到相當廣泛的可能的經濟路徑。

But John called out our wider resilience of Marsh McLennan, and I'm proud that Oliver Wyman has demonstrated that resilience and clawing our way back from a flat to Q1. And as Martin said as well, we do try to look at the business on a year-over-year basis more than a quarter-over-quarter basis, but this does matter.

但約翰讚揚了達信麥克倫南 (Marsh McLennan) 更廣泛的韌性，我很自豪奧緯諮詢 (Oliver Wyman) 展示了這種韌性，並讓我們從持平回到第一季。正如馬丁所說，我們確實嘗試以同比而非季度為基礎來審視業務，但這確實很重要。

We're quite a diverse business now, and we've been becoming more diverse. So if you think about the sectors that are driving our growth in the regions, our India, Middle East and Africa region has been the biggest contributor to our regional growth with Europe also contributing strongly.

我們現在是一家相當多元化的企業，而且我們一直在變得更加多元化。因此，如果你考慮推動我們在這些地區成長的產業，我們的印度、中東和非洲地區一直是我們地區成長的最大貢獻者，歐洲也做出了巨大貢獻。

On the sectoral side, public sector, which is quite present in the Middle East, our communications, media and technology practice followed by banking, followed by transportation and services. So again, quite a wide array of industry sectors there.

在部門方面，公共部門在中東相當普遍，我們的通訊、媒體和技術實務其次是銀行業，其次是交通和服務業。再說一次，那裡的工業領域相當廣泛。

And maybe just an interesting case study on the industry side would be our private equity, private capital practice. Clearly, it's not been a great deal environment. But that practice has been doing quite well, driven by portfolio company work. And over the last few years, I've said a few times and I've been asked questions about our offerings through the cycle, which we've been seeking to broaden.

也許產業方面的一個有趣的案例研究就是我們的私募股權、私人資本實踐。顯然，這並不是一個很好的環境。但在投資組合公司工作的推動下，這種做法一直表現良好。在過去的幾年裡，我已經說過幾次，也有人問我有關我們在整個週期中提供的產品的問題，我們一直在尋求擴大這個週期。

Our economic research practices grew strongly, our digital team, our restructuring practice, which is nascent, grew very strongly. Our work on performance transformation with clients, which is more of a tough economic environment offering as well as our people in organizational performance work where we do a lot of collaboration with Mercer.

我們的經濟研究實踐強勁成長，我們的數位團隊和新興的重組實踐成長非常強勁。我們與客戶一起進行績效轉型，這更多的是在嚴峻的經濟環境下進行的，我們的組織績效工作人員與美世進行了大量合作。

So ultimately, I'm optimistic in our long-term growth prospects, but we continue to plan for mid- to high single-digit growth over the longer term. And our pipeline is looking in line with that at this moment.

因此，最終，我對我們的長期成長前景持樂觀態度，但我們繼續計劃在長期內實現中高個位數成長。目前我們的管道正在與此一致。

And our next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Mike Zaremski。

I guess just a follow-up to the last question about kind of global growth. So Marsh's growth clearly record high levels. I feel like historically, there's been more of a correlation between growth and nominal GDP.

我想這只是關於全球成長的最後一個問題的後續。因此達信的成長顯然創下了高水準。我覺得從歷史上看，成長和名目國內生產毛額之間有更多的相關性。

If you do agree with that, it just feels like there's been a decoupling of that relationship recently and a good way for you, obviously. And just curious if there's anything structurally permanently that's changed? Or is it -- are there kind of temporary phenomenon with hires? Or anything you want to call out if you agree with the premise of my question.

如果你確實同意這一點，那麼感覺最近這種關係已經脫鉤，顯然對你來說這是一個好方法。只是好奇是否有任何結構上永久性的改變？或者說，招募方面是否存在某種暫時現象？或者如果您同意我的問題前提，您可以提出任何意見。

Sure, Mike. What I would say is it is a volatile macro environment, certainly, both the economy and geopolitically, as I mentioned before. But I do believe nominal GDP is a better indicator of demand over time and with inflation, tight labor markets and pricing positive in the P&C market. Those macro factors are certainly supportive of growth.

當然，麥克。我想說的是，正如我之前提到的，無論是經濟還是地緣政治，宏觀環境都不穩定。但我確實相信，隨著時間的推移，隨著通貨膨脹、勞動市場緊張以及財產保險市場的積極定價，名目GDP是一個更好的需求指標。這些宏觀因素無疑地支持成長。

But what I would also say is we've been working very hard to shift our mix of business to better growth markets over time. A handful of examples: M&A, of course, the middle market at both Marsh and Mercer; ROCIO business, we've been investing in. We have invested organically and inorganically throughout Asia.

但我還要說的是，隨著時間的推移，我們一直在努力將我們的業務組合轉向更好的成長市場。幾個例子：併購，當然，達信和美世的中間市場； ROCIO業務，我們一直在投資。我們在整個亞洲進行了有機和無機投資。

And then more broadly, we've invested in talent, sales operations and our client engagement model. So we believe we're a better growth business and better positioned. And while, again, that macro environment is quite volatile. We're confident in our ability to perform over economic cycles.

更廣泛地說，我們對人才、銷售營運和客戶參與模式進行了投資。因此，我們相信我們是一家成長性較好、定位較佳的企業。同時，宏觀環境也相當不穩定。我們對自己在經濟週期中的表現充滿信心。

Okay. That's helpful. If I could ask a follow-up, and hopefully, it's not out of left field, but there's been a chatter in the media and at a recent wholesale conference about potentially some of the larger brokers getting back into the wholesale business.

好的。這很有幫助。如果我可以問一個後續問題，希望這不是超出範圍的事情，但媒體和最近的一次批發會議上一直在討論一些較大的經紀人可能會重返批發業務。

I'm not sure if you want to comment on that or can. But maybe you can at least offer some perspective on why Marsh doesn't have as big of a wholesale presence relative to just its market share of non-wholesale insurance?

我不確定你是否願意對此發表評論。但也許您至少可以提供一些觀點，說明為什麼達信相對於其非批發保險市場份額沒有那麼大的批發業務？

Yes. Sure, Mark -- Mike, excuse me, I'm happy to comment. I mean, first of all, I would say that the E&S market volumes historically have moved with pricing cycles. I think given the volatile risk environment, I suspect that E&S market volumes will be more durable than they've been historically.

是的。當然，馬克——邁克，對不起，我很高興發表評論。我的意思是，首先，我想說，E&S 市場容量歷來隨著定價週期而改變。我認為，考慮到不穩定的風險環境，我懷疑 E&S 市場交易量將比歷史上更持久。

Underwriters are looking for flexibility. And third-party wholesalers can give us access to certain markets. At the same time, we access some E&S markets directly today. And so in terms of third-party wholesale, I think we'd have to be thoughtful about whether or not we would be a good owner.

承銷商正在尋求靈活性。第三方批發商可以讓我們進入某些市場。同時，我們今天也直接進入一些 E&S 市場。所以在第三方批發方面，我認為我們必須考慮我們是否是一個好的業主。

We do have a business in Victor that does a lot of business with independent, really small commercial main street agents. That's a marketplace we can serve and do serve today with solutions. But our focus, again, broadly speaking, in Marsh's business is about bringing the entirety of the market, all solutions that are out there. Whether they're standard market or admitted market solutions or nonadmitted solutions, we want to have the flexibility to do that, and that's what we do to make sure that we can protect and bring the best solutions to our clients. Hopefully, that was helpful.

我們在維克多確實有一家公司，與獨立的、非常小的商業大街代理商有很多業務。這是我們現在可以透過解決方案提供服務並確實提供服務的市場。但從廣義上講，我們在達信業務中的重點是引入整個市場以及現有的所有解決方案。無論它們是標準市場、認可的市場解決方案還是非認可的解決方案，我們都希望能夠靈活地做到這一點，這就是我們所做的，以確保我們能夠保護客戶並為他們帶來最佳的解決方案。希望有幫助。

And our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

John, in the press release, you mentioned continuing to make investments for the future in this quarter. I'm just wondering if there was an acceleration in some of those investments this quarter, particularly in RIS? And if so, if you could walk through the nature of them and how we can think about the future revenue contribution?

約翰，在新聞稿中，您提到本季繼續為未來進行投資。我只是想知道本季其中一些投資是否有所加速，特別是在 RIS 方面？如果是這樣，您能否詳細介紹它們的性質以及我們如何考慮未來的收入貢獻？

No, I don't -- thanks, David. I don't see it as an acceleration in the quarter. Certainly, on a GAAP basis, in the quarter, expense growth was impacted by M&A, restructuring, but also FX. And even on an adjusted basis, obviously, FX played a role there.

不，我不——謝謝，大衛。我不認為本季會出現加速。當然，根據公認會計原則，本季費用成​​長受到併購、重組以及外匯的影響。即使在調整後的基礎上，外匯顯然也發揮了作用。

But as I said earlier, we're trying to balance delivering today and investing for the future. We're not trying to optimize margins in a particular quarter or for that matter, in a year. We've got a track record, a disciplined track record of growing revenue faster than expense, but we're not going to do it in every quarter, in every business and every quarter. And so we see right opportunities to make investments that we think are going to create opportunities for us to deliver value for our clients. We're going to make them.

但正如我之前所說，我們正在努力平衡今天的交付和未來的投資。我們並不是試圖優化特定季度或一年內的利潤率。我們有一個記錄，一個嚴格的收入成長快於支出的記錄，但我們不會在每季、每個業務、每季都這樣做。因此，我們看到了正確的投資機會，我們認為這些投資將為我們創造機會，為客戶創造價值。我們要做它們。

Got it. And then just on the Marsh Global Pricing Index. I guess I'm wondering just if we're seeing an acceleration in some of the casualty lines, excluding workers' comp and excluding financial lines. If you're seeing an acceleration there, it sounded like on the reinsurance side, there's a bit more discipline that's entering the market given some social inflation concerns. I'm wondering if you're seeing any signs of that in the primary market?

知道了。然後是達信全球定價指數。我想我想知道我們是否看到一些傷亡險種的加速成長，不包括工人補償和財務險種。如果你看到那裡的加速，聽起來像是在再保險方面，考慮到一些社會通膨擔憂，進入市場的紀律更加嚴格。我想知道您是否在一級市場上看到了任何這種跡象？

Yes, it's not a market. I would suggest it's really a collection of markets. And what we saw in the third quarter was, on average, pretty similar to what we experienced in the second quarter. I would note, as it relates to our income statement, we have different levels of commission exposure to different products, right? So it doesn't always add up to the same amount.

是的，這不是市場。我建議這實際上是一個市場的集合。平均而言，我們在第三季看到的情況與第二季的經驗非常相似。我想指出的是，因為它與我們的損益表相關，所以我們對不同產品有不同程度的佣金，對吧？所以加起來並不總是相同的金額。

But it's a mixed market, and maybe I'll ask Martin to share some thoughts. And just to remind everyone, it's our role is to get the best solution for our retail clients in the marketplace. And we have a role as a market maker, too. And so we've done a few things as a market maker to try to bring more efficient financing solutions to our clients. Martin?

但這是一個混合市場，也許我會請馬丁分享一些想法。只是提醒大家，我們的職責是為市場上的零售客戶提供最佳解決方案。我們也扮演做市商的角色。因此，作為做市商，我們做了一些事情，試圖為我們的客戶帶來更有效的融資解決方案。馬丁？

Yes, I agree with that, John. That's our job. Just to level set, we're in the 24th consecutive quarter of rate increases. We'll release our survey in a couple of weeks' time. And I don't think we're at an inflection point when it comes to pricing.

是的，我同意這一點，約翰。這就是我們的工作。就設定的水平而言，我們已連續 24 個季度升息。我們將在幾週後發布我們的調查。我認為在定價方面我們還沒有處於轉折點。

The pricing cycles we're seeing across the different geographies and product lines are beginning to show a mix of strengths and weaknesses depending on the combination. The third quarter Casualty grew at 3%. It grew in 3% the quarter before and the quarter before and the quarter before.

我們在不同地區和產品線中看到的定價週期開始顯示出不同的優勢和劣勢，這取決於組合。第三季傷亡人數增加 3%。上一季、上一季和上一季成長了 3%。

So we're not seeing an acceleration. But I would say we're hearing a lot more talk from carriers about pressures on pricing and social pricing and some of the nuclear verdicts that are out there, and we're keeping our clients closely posted on those.

所以我們沒有看到加速。但我想說的是，我們從營運商那裡聽到了更多關於定價和社會定價壓力以及一些現有的核裁決的討論，我們正在讓客戶密切關注這些情況。

Property was at 7%. These rates were roughly in line with the prior quarter. We saw some softness in FINPRO lines. FINPRO lines came down by 6% in the third quarter. They were down 8% in the quarter before. So I don't think that's a trend yet, but it's certainly less. And as you mentioned in the introduction, John, our cyber index came down by 2%, and it was up by 1% in the quarter, so 3 percentage point delta between the courses.

財產率為7%。這些比率與上一季大致一致。我們看到 FINPRO 系列有些疲軟。第三季 FINPRO 額度下降了 6%。他們在上一季下跌了 8%。所以我認為這還不是一種趨勢，但肯定會減少。正如您在介紹中提到的，約翰，我們的網路指數下降了 2%，而本季上升了 1%，因此課程之間的增量為 3 個百分點。

So it's a relatively calm market that we'll see on casualty.

因此，我們將在傷亡方面看到一個相對平靜的市場。

Yes. Thanks, Martin. What I would also say, David, and I mentioned this to Jimmy, but clearly, the cost of risk is rising, right? So whether it's a frequency of cat events, including extreme weather, casualty loss costs; whether it's core inflation, social inflation, some of the underwriting community referring to as legal system abuse; the growth in litigation funding; concerns for our clients for sure and the underwriting community as well. Thanks, David.

是的。謝謝，馬丁。我還要說的是，大衛，我向吉米提到了這一點，但顯然，風險成本正在上升，對嗎？那麼是否是貓事件的頻率，包括極端天氣、傷亡損失成本；無論是核心通膨、社會通膨，或是一些核保界所說的濫用法律制度；訴訟資金的成長；我們的客戶和核保界肯定會擔心。謝謝，大衛。

Our next question comes from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的 Rob Cox。

So I think last quarter, there were some comments that I interpreted as expectations for the level of margin expansion to accelerate in RIS in the second half, but it was just a bit lower. So just curious if you could talk about the puts and takes with respect to the margin relative to 2Q and whether it's still fair to assume that the second half of the year will have stronger margin expansion than 2Q?

所以我認為上個季度，有一些評論我將其解讀為對 RIS 下半年利潤率擴張水準加速的預期，但只是稍微低了一點。因此，我想知道您是否可以談論相對於第二季度的利潤率的看跌期權和看跌期權，以及假設今年下半年的利潤率擴張將比第二季度更強是否仍然公平？

Yes. Sure, Rob. Again, margins and outcome, it's not our primary objective. Our focus is on growing earnings and free cash flow over time. We're not trying to optimize margin expansion in any period, certainly in any business in any period. We do expect solid margin expansion in 2023, which will be our 16th consecutive year of margin expansion.

是的。當然，羅布。再說一遍，利潤和結果，這不是我們的首要目標。我們的重點是隨著時間的推移而不斷增長的收入和自由現金流。我們並不是試圖在任何時期優化利潤擴張，當然是在任何時期的任何業務中。我們預計 2023 年利潤率將穩健成長，這將是我們利潤率連續第 16 年成長。

There were FX headwinds in RIS' margins in the third quarter. But again, I'm pleased with the progress that we've made there. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, again, we expect good solid margin expansion in 2023.

第三季 RIS 的利潤率受到外匯不利因素的影響。但我再次對我們在這方面取得的進展感到滿意。正如我在準備好的發言中再次提到的，我們預計 2023 年利潤率將實現良好且穩健的成長。

Got it. And maybe just a follow-up. I think some peers have highlighted expectations for medical costs to increase. So I was hoping if you could discuss the trends you're seeing in the health and benefit space and expectations as we look into 2024?

知道了。也許只是後續行動。我認為一些同行已經強調了醫療費用增加的預期。所以我希望您能討論一下您在健康和福利領域看到的趨勢以及我們展望 2024 年的期望嗎？

Sure, Rob. I'll ask Martine to comment in a second, but we've had good growth in our health and benefits business at Mercer in our business internationally, which is Mercer Marsh Benefits and at MMA. It is a pressure point, clearly, for our clients in this economy. And so clients more and more looking to us for solutions there. Martine, maybe you could share some insights?

當然，羅布。我稍後會請 Martine 發表評論，但我們在美世的健康和福利業務以及我們的國際業務（即美世達信福利）和 MMA 都取得了良好的成長。對於當前經濟情勢下的客戶來說，這顯然是一個壓力點。因此，越來越多的客戶向我們尋求解決方案。馬丁，也許你可以分享一些見解？

Yes. Thank you, Robert, for the question. Thank you, John.

是的。謝謝羅伯特的提問。謝謝你，約翰。

Indeed, medical inflation is increasing. And as John just said, it's an advantage for our clients. At the same time, it's not a big part of our revenue sources because a lot of our clients are on fee-based or those kind of things. When -- we're also working a lot with clients to try to control those costs, control those increases.

事實上，醫療通膨正在加劇。正如約翰剛才所說，這對我們的客戶來說是一個優勢。同時，它並不是我們收入來源的重要組成部分，因為我們的許多客戶都是收費的或類似的。我們也與客戶進行了大量合作，試圖控制這些成本，並控制這些成長。

Because, as you may know, in the health benefit space, very, very often, the employers would share the cost with the employee base. So in this time of our inflation, they're pretty concerned about passing on those costs. So we're looking at design of the plan, access in a different way, leveraging technology, et cetera.

因為，如您所知，在健康福利領域，雇主通常會與員工分擔成本。因此，在通貨膨脹的這個時期，他們非常擔心轉嫁這些成本。因此，我們正在考慮計劃的設計、以不同的方式存取、利用技術等等。

So there's many different ways that our clients -- that we can help our clients address those increase in costs. And it's impacting revenue a little bit, but honestly, it's a small part for us given all of the counter points.

因此，我們的客戶可以透過多種不同的方式幫助我們的客戶解決成本增加的問題。它對收入產生了一點影響，但說實話，考慮到所有的反對意見，這對我們來說只是一小部分。

And our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields of KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

Two quick questions, if I can. First, John, you talked about macroeconomic uncertainty. I'm wondering how that impacts near-term visibility (inaudible) from Mercer in terms of revenue?

如果可以的話，兩個簡單的問題。首先，約翰，您談到了宏觀經濟的不確定性。我想知道這對美世近期的收入可見度（聽不清楚）有何影響？

Yes. Thanks, Meyer. I would say, as I said, obviously, the macro economy remains uncertain, and there is a fair amount of questions about it. What I would say is mature markets have remained relatively resilient, but inflation of cost persists.

是的。謝謝，邁耶。我想說，正如我所說，顯然，宏觀經濟仍然存在不確定性，並且存在相當多的問題。我想說的是，成熟市場仍保持相對彈性，但成本通膨持續存在。

Central banks are -- their primary mission is to reduce inflation. But we do see a meaningful risk of recession, and we're prepared for that sure. And some markets are in recession now.

中央銀行的首要任務是降低通貨膨脹。但我們確實看到了經濟衰退的重大風險，我們已經準備好了。一些市場現在正處於衰退之中。

But I'll ask Nick, Martine, again, I think Oliver Wyman historically has been a bit more sensitive to GDP and Mercer's Career business has as well. But Nick, maybe you could share some thoughts on the economy and what you think that might mean to our business.

但我會再問尼克、馬丁，我認為奧緯諮詢歷史上對 GDP 比較敏感，美世的職業事業也是如此。但是尼克，也許你可以分享一些關於經濟的想法以及你認為這對我們的業務可能意味著什麼。

Yes. Thank you, John. Thank you, Meyer. It's -- as I said earlier on, I think it is a wide range of economic paths that I see. Different of our sectors do react differently and some of our industries have been having a pretty tough time since sort of through and since the pandemic.

是的。謝謝你，約翰。謝謝你，邁耶。正如我之前所說，我認為我看到的是廣泛的經濟路徑。我們不同的行業確實有不同的反應，自大流行以來，我們的一些行業一直經歷著相當艱難的時期。

Some have seen little spurts of growth. We've been growing in some sectors, for example, Aerospace and Defense, where we made a significant acquisition last year, which we see as being more robust through the cycle. I do think that a tough economic outlook tends to result in slower growth for Oliver Wyman.

有些人的成長略有突飛猛進。我們在某些​​領域一直在成長，例如航空航太和國防，我們去年在這些領域進行了重大收購，我們認為這些領域在整個週期中更加強勁。我確實認為，嚴峻的經濟前景往往會導致奧緯諮詢的成長放緩。

But as I said earlier, we've been trying to develop a wider set of through-the-cycle offerings. And sometimes when the questions all change, people need help answering them. So it's definitely not a correlation anymore. I think it probably -- that correlation has declined over time and it's pretty low now.

但正如我之前所說，我們一直在努力開發更廣泛的全週期產品。有時，當問題全部改變時，人們需要幫助來回答這些問題。所以這絕對不再是相關性了。我認為這種相關性可能隨著時間的推移而下降，現在已經很低了。

Thank you, Nick. Martine, maybe you can share some thoughts on Mercer Career?

謝謝你，尼克。馬丁，也許你可以分享一些關於美世職業的想法？

Yes. Yes, absolutely. And over the last few years, we have focused also on diversifying our portfolio of businesses, and we've improved our business mix a little bit away from the more discretionary nature of the business, particularly in Career with more recurring type of work.

是的。是的，一點沒錯。在過去的幾年裡，我們也致力於業務組合的多元化，並且我們已經改進了我們的業務組合，使其遠離了業務的自由裁量性質，特別是在具有更多重複性工作類型的職業領域。

And I would add to that, that with our -- with the current environment, there's also lots of demand, as Nick just said. You look at volatile capital markets, for example, drives demand for advice in our defined benefits and our defined contribution businesses. Well-funded defined benefits plan on the back of high interest rates is also creating demand for pension risk transfer.

我想補充一點，正如尼克剛才所說，在我們當前的環境下，也有很多需求。例如，波動的資本市場推動了對我們的固定福利和固定繳款業務的建議需求。高利率背景下資金充足的固定福利計畫也創造了退休金風險轉移的需求。

We talked about tight labor markets, the different -- the change in the ways of working, the upcoming of digital health and technology in the workplace. It's all driving demand and countering the more traditional, I would say, of previous year's impact of direct correlation to GDP, as we discussed earlier.

我們討論了勞動力市場緊張、不同之處——工作方式的變化、數位健康和​​工作場所技術的即將到來。正如我們之前討論的，這一切都在推動需求，並抵消前一年與 GDP 直接相關的更傳統的影響。

Thanks, Martine. So we, of course, Meyer, are not immune to economic growth, but we're a resilient business. And again, we have a track record of performing across economic cycles. And at the moment, demand remains strong. Do you have a follow-up?

謝謝，馬丁娜。因此，邁耶當然不能免受經濟成長的影響，但我們是一家有彈性的企業。再說一遍，我們擁有跨經濟週期表現的記錄。目前，需求仍然強勁。你有後續行動嗎？

I do. Just a quick one. That was very helpful.

我願意。只是快一點。這非常有幫助。

With regard to Oliver Wyman, in the past, I guess, you've communicated that Oliver Wyman, when you have strong growth, there could be some pressure on consulting margins just because of the nature of that business. And we didn't see that in this quarter. I'm wondering, is that context of lower margins of Oliver Wyman less true now?

關於奧緯諮詢，我想，您過去曾表示，奧緯諮詢，當您實現強勁增長時，由於該業務的性質，諮詢利潤可能會受到一些壓力。我們在本季沒有看到這一點。我想知道，奧緯諮詢利潤率較低的背景現在是否不那麼真實了？

No, it's not less true. But again, keep in mind, Mercer had its best quarter of growth. It's a bigger business than Oliver Wyman and it has best quarter of growth in 15 years. So that's the reason you didn't see anything there.

不，這也同樣正確。但請再次記住，美世公司經歷了最好的季度成長。它的業務規模比奧緯諮詢 (Oliver Wyman) 還要大，並且實現了 15 年來最好的季度增長。所以這就是你在那裡沒有看到任何東西的原因。

And our next question comes from the line of Scott Heleniak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Scott Heleniak。

Just at Marsh, just wondering if you could comment what's driving double-digit growth there at EMEA and Latin America? I know that's been strong for a few quarters, but can you give more detail on that? Is there any new areas we're seeing growth? And is there much of a benefit from rate increases there?

在達信，您是否可以評論一下推動歐洲、中東和非洲和拉丁美洲實現兩位數成長的因素是什麼？我知道這幾個季度以來一直很強勁，但您能提供更多細節嗎？我們有看到成長的新領域嗎？升息對那裡有很大好處嗎？

Yes, sure. Happy to talk about that, Scott. Again, very pleased with our growth at Marsh. It was particularly strong in the International segment in the quarter. And in spite of mixed economic outcomes in Europe, our business is performing exceptionally well there. And we've had good growth over a long period of time in Latin America. Martin, maybe you could share some color on growth in both of those markets.

是的，當然。很高興談論這個，斯科特。再次對我們在達信的成長感到非常滿意。本季國際業務的表現尤其強勁。儘管歐洲的經濟成果好壞參半，但我們的業務在當地的表現卻異常出色。長期以來，我們在拉丁美洲取得了良好的成長。馬丁，也許您可以分享一些有關這兩個市場成長的資訊。

I'd be thrilled to. Yes. As you say, great growth in international, 10%; Latin America, up 14%; APAC, 10%, EMEA, 9%. So really, really pleasing growth.

我會很高興。是的。正如你所說，國際成長很大，10%；拉丁美洲，成長 14%；亞太地區，10%，歐洲、中東和非洲，9%。成長真的非常非常令人開心。

I'd say there are a few areas that are outstanding at the moment, the energy and power business, the transition is fueling growth. Credit Specialties had a terrific quarter in aviation, as well as MMB, which is a big part of our business in Europe, delivered strong double-digit growth.

我想說，目前有幾個領域表現出色，例如能源和電力業務，轉型正在推動成長。 Credit Specialties 在航空領域的季度表現非常出色，而 MMB（我們歐洲業務的重要組成部分）也實現了兩位數的強勁成長。

And our Advisory business, our value proposition is to go to market through a lens to help our clients think through the cost of risk. And so that's been a big growth area for us as we think that, and we think that will continue to broaden our opportunities. That's been great growth. It's been good growth between renewal and new bid business across the business and we've had less lost business.

對於我們的諮詢業務，我們的價值主張是透過鏡頭進入市場，幫助我們的客戶思考風險成本。因此，正如我們所認為的那樣，這對我們來說是一個巨大的成長領域，我們認為這將繼續擴大我們的機會。這是巨大的成長。整個業務的續訂和新投標業務之間的成長良好，我們的業務損失也減少了。

The clients are staying with us longer as they see the value in an organization like ours that has such broad capabilities. So we feel very good about that across the board. And of course, you've got the fundamentals in Latin America with protection gap and somewhat emerging markets in Eastern Europe as well that have had a very strong growth as well. So we feel well positioned and very positive about the trajectory there.

客戶在我們這裡停留的時間更長，因為他們看到了像我們這樣擁有如此廣泛能力的組織的價值。所以我們對此整體感覺非常好。當然，拉丁美洲的基本面存在著保護缺口，東歐的新興市場也有非常強勁的成長。因此，我們感覺自己處於有利位置，並且對那裡的發展軌跡非常樂觀。

Thanks, Martin. Scott, do you have a follow-up?

謝謝，馬丁。史考特，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. Just one other quick follow-up here. Just on M&A, you did those a couple of bigger sized deals in the quarter. Just wondering if you could just comment on your M&A pipeline versus where it was maybe 6 to 9 months ago? You're feeling a bit better about those opportunities as you go into 2024, and maybe some areas that you're looking at, in particular with the focus areas?

是的。這裡只是另一個快速跟進。就併購而言，您在本季完成了幾筆規模較大的交易。只是想知道您是否可以評論一下您的併購管道與 6 到 9 個月前的情況？進入 2024 年，您對這些機會以及您正在關注的某些領域（尤其是重點領域）的感覺有所改善？

Sure. We remain quite active in the market and the pipeline remains solid for sure. And again, I just want to emphasize how pleased we were to welcome Grant to the family in the third quarter, and we expect to close Honan relatively soon.

當然。我們在市場上仍然相當活躍，管道肯定仍然穩固。再次，我只想強調我們非常高興在第三季度歡迎格蘭特加入這個大家庭，我們預計很快就會關閉河南。

They're two well-led businesses, well positioned, solid growth fundamentals in both of them, expanding our presence in the middle market, which gets back to the mix point that I was making earlier. So overall, we closed five deals in the quarter. Those were the two bigger ones. We're very excited about it.

他們是兩家領導良好的企業，定位良好，都有堅實的成長基礎，擴大了我們在中間市場的影響力，這又回到了我之前提出的混合點。總的來說，我們在本季完成了五筆交易。那是兩個更大的。我們對此感到非常興奮。

We're certainly -- it's an active marketplace. While there's fewer transactions, there's a lot that is at play. And so we're wide out about and clear on what we're looking for. Valuations remain elevated for strong businesses that are in the market. But we know what we're looking for and we know how to manage the risk of M&A. And so we're going to be selective and disciplined, but we expect to continue to deploy capital inorganically.

我們當然——這是一個活躍的市場。雖然交易量較少，但有許多活動在發揮作用。因此，我們對我們正在尋找的東西非常了解並清楚。市場上實力雄厚的企業的估值仍然較高。但我們知道我們在尋找什麼，也知道如何管理併購風險。因此，我們將有選擇性和有紀律，但我們預計將繼續無機地部署資本。

And our next question comes from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的鮑勃·黃（Bob Huang）。

So maybe if we can just go back to Oliver Wyman a little bit. Previously, you mentioned that regarding the UBS and Credit Suisse merger deal. That happened in the second quarter.

所以也許我們可以稍微回到奧緯諮詢。此前，您提到了瑞銀和瑞士信貸的合併交易。那發生在第二季。

Just curious if that was a meaningful driver of organic growth for Oliver Wyman into the second quarter and third quarter? And also on top of that, do you expect any residual from that deal to come through in the fourth quarter and going forward for Oliver Wyman?

只是好奇這是否是奧緯諮詢第二季和第三季有機成長的重要推手？除此之外，您預計奧緯諮詢在第四季和未來會從該交易中獲得任何剩餘收益嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Bob. We're not going to comment on individual clients and the work that we do for individual clients. So as Nick talked about a couple of different times on this call, we have an increasingly diverse set of offerings that we think is more resilient, and we're very, very pleased with the growth at Oliver Wyman through 3 quarters.

是的。謝謝，鮑伯。我們不會評論個人客戶以及我們為個人客戶所做的工作。因此，正如尼克在這次電話會議上多次談到的那樣，我們擁有越來越多樣化的產品，我們認為這些產品更具彈性，而且我們對奧緯諮詢在過去三個季度的增長感到非常非常滿意。

Again, quarter-to-quarter, we could see more volatility and expect to see more volatility at Oliver Wyman's top line than our other businesses. But we also expect Oliver Wyman to grow faster over a medium term and longer term. And that's certainly been the case. That's been the case in this year, and we expect it to be the case over the longer term. Do you have a follow-up?

同樣，從季度到季度，我們可能會看到更大的波動性，並預計奧緯諮詢的營收將比我們的其他業務更大的波動性。但我們也預期奧緯諮詢在中長期內將成長更快。情況確實如此。今年的情況就是這樣，我們預計長期來看也會如此。你有後續行動嗎？

Yes, sure. So one more thing very quickly. Regarding your cyber insurance practice. I know you mentioned that the cyber insurance pricing growth is slowing down a little bit. There had been a few relatively large headline cyber incidents as well as some cyber claims, namely in the casino gaming area as well as the government and other areas.

是的，當然。很快還有一件事。關於您的網路保險實務。我知道您提到網路保險定價成長正在放緩。曾經發生過一些相對較大的頭條網路事件以及一些網路索賠，即在賭場博彩領域以及政府和其他領域。

Do you expect the current slowdown in cyber pricing maybe just sort of in a soft patch? But do you expect that pricing growth to rebound back? Or do you think the cyber insurance pricing will just kind of stay where it is right now?

您是否認為當前網路定價的放緩可能只是一個軟補丁？但您預期價格成長會反彈嗎？或者您認為網路保險定價會保持現在的水平嗎？

Bob, what I -- again, the most important point to make here is it's our job to find efficient risk financing solutions for our clients. So what I would say is, yes, there's been some major breaches that will drive some insured losses in the marketplace. There's also been an increase, again, in the number of ransomware claims that's -- that have happened during the course of this year.

鮑勃，我再次強調，這裡最重要的一點是，我們的工作是為客戶找到有效的風險融資解決方案。所以我想說的是，是的，存在一些重大違規行為，這將導致市場上發生一些保險損失。今年發生的勒索軟體索賠數量也有所增加。

But I would also note that the underwriting community has reacted to growing ransomware claims over the course of the last couple of years through higher attachment points. The market is also -- the underwriting market is also reacting to possible systemic events that could aggregate losses in their portfolios.

但我還要指出的是，承保社區透過更高的附著點對過去幾年不斷增長的勒索軟體索賠做出了反應。市場也在——承銷市場也在對可能導致其投資組合損失總計的系統性事件做出反應。

We're, of course, helping them at Guy Carpenter and at the same time, working with Marsh to build better solutions for that. But the market's been restricting coverage for systemic type events. And so that's a factor in that marketplace as well. And so I don't think the market will move meaningfully based on a couple of losses.

當然，我們正在為 Guy Carpenter 的他們提供幫助，同時與 Marsh 合作，為此構建更好的解決方案。但市場一直限制對系統性事件的報導。所以這也是該市場的一個因素。因此，我認為市場不會因為幾次損失而發生有意義的變化。

But we have some work to do collectively to help in a digital economy. When I say collectively, I mean the royal we, the entire marketplace, in coming up with better solutions to help clients manage the risks -- cyber-related risks in a digital economy. Thank you.

但我們還有一些工作需要共同完成，以幫助數位經濟的發展。當我說集體時，我指的是我們皇家，整個市場，提出更好的解決方案來幫助客戶管理風險——數位經濟中與網路相關的風險。謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自來自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis。

So some competitors have like very specifically highlighted pressures -- organic growth pressures in the U.S. from D&O capital markets-related transactions. You mentioned it briefly. Just curious, when we look at your U.S./Canada within Marsh, is there any reason to believe that you guys wouldn't be wearing a headwind of similar magnitude?

因此，一些競爭對手非常明確地強調了壓力——來自 D&O 資本市場相關交易的美國有機成長壓力。你簡單地提到了這一點。只是好奇，當我們看看馬什內部的美國/加拿大時，是否有任何理由相信你們不會遇到類似強度的逆風？

Thanks, Ryan, for the question. Yes, I think Martin pointed this out. There's -- I can't talk about relative exposure. But clearly, capital market volatility, rising cost of capital, M&A activity is down, IPO activity is down, SPACs are down, de-SPACs down, all those kinds of things that drive risk and create opportunities for us to offer advice and solutions are under some pressure.

謝謝瑞安提出的問題。是的，我認為馬丁指出了這一點。我不能談論相對暴露。但顯然，資本市場波動、資本成本上升、併購活動下降、IPO 活動下​​降、SPAC 下降、去 SPAC 下降，所有這些帶來風險並為我們提供建議和解決方案創造機會的因素都在減少。在一定的壓力下。

And somewhat related to that, as Martin also noted earlier, pricing is down as well. And so those are headwinds. But again, we have a well-diversified business in the United States. We help our clients manage a wide range of risks. And broadly speaking, again, the cost of risk continues to rise for the factors that I mentioned earlier on the call.

與此相關的是，正如馬丁之前指出的那樣，價格也在下降。所以這些都是逆風。但同樣，我們在美國擁有多元化的業務。我們幫助客戶管理廣泛的風險。總的來說，由於我之前在電話會議中提到的因素，風險成本繼續上升。

So thank you, Ryan. I appreciate that, and I want to thank you all for joining us on the call. In closing, I want to thank our over 85,000 colleagues for their hard work and dedication. I also want to thank our clients for their continued support.

所以謝謝你，瑞安。我對此表示讚賞，並感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。最後，我要感謝超過 85,000 名同事的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我還要感謝我們的客戶一直以來的支持。

Thank you, all, very much, and we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

非常感謝大家，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's program. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。