威達信集團 (MMC) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Marsh & McLennan's earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. Second quarter 2024 financial results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at marshmclennan.com.

歡迎參加 Marsh & McLennan 的財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。今天早上早些時候發布了 2024 年第二季財務業績和補充資訊。您可以在公司網站 marshmclenan.com 上取得這些資訊。

Please note that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements.

請注意，今天發表的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，多種因素可能導致實際結果與此類陳述預期的結果有重大差異。

For more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K, all of which are available on the Marsh & McLennan website.

有關這些因素的更詳細討論，請參閱我們本季的收益發布以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件，包括我們最新的 10-K 表格，所有這些文件均可在 Marsh & McLennan 網站上獲取。

During the call today, we may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures for a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release.

在今天的電話會議上，我們也可能討論某些非公認會計原則財務指標，以便將這些指標與最接近的公認會計原則指標進行調節，請參閱今天的收益發布中的時間表。

(Operator Instructions) I'll now turn this over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh & McLennan.

（操作員指示）我現在將其交給 Marsh & McLennan 總裁兼執行長 John Doyle。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our second quarter results reported earlier today. I'm John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh & McLennan. On the call with me is Mark McGivney, our CFO; and the CEOs of our businesses, Martin South of Marsh; Dean Klisura of Guy Carpente; Pat Tomlinson of Mercer; and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman. Also with us this morning, is Sarah Dewitt, Head of Investor Relations.

早安，感謝您加入我們討論今天早些時候報告的第二季業績。我是威達信總裁兼執行長約翰·道爾 (John Doyle)。與我通話的是我們的財務長 Mark McGivney；以及我們企業的執行長 Marsh 的 Martin South； Guy Carpente 的 Dean Klisura；美世 (Mercer) 的帕特·湯姆林森 (Pat Tomlinson)；和奧緯諮詢公司的尼克·斯圖德。今天早上與我們在一起的還有投資者關係主管莎拉‧德威特 (Sarah Dewitt)。

Before I get into our results, I'd like to comment on the attempted assassination of former US President, Donald Trump, this past weekend. We're thankful that he is safe and our hearts go out to the victims and their loved ones.

在發表我們的結果之前，我想對上週末美國前總統唐納德·川普的暗殺未遂事件發表評論。我們慶幸祂平安無事，我們的心與受害者及其親人同在。

Violence has no place in our politics or our society. We condemn it and affirm our commitment to civil discussion, debate, and resolution. Our political process and democracy depend on all candidates having the ability to safely convey their visions for our country. We believe that each of us can help shape peaceful public discourse and advocate for a culture of respect and unity.

暴力在我們的政治或社會中沒有立足之地。我們譴責這種行為，並申明我們對民間討論、辯論和解決方案的承諾。我們的政治進程和民主取決於所有候選人是否有能力安全地傳達他們對我們國家的願景。我們相信，我們每個人都可以幫助塑造和平的公共話語並倡導尊重和團結的文化。

Now turning to the second quarter, Marsh & McLennan delivered strong results across our businesses and geographies. We generated 6% underlying revenue growth on top of 11% in the second quarter of last year, reflecting strong execution in both RIS and in consulting.

現在轉向第二季度，威達信在我們的業務和地區取得了強勁的業績。在去年第二季 11% 的基礎上，我們實現了 6% 的基本營收成長，反映出 RIS 和諮詢領域的強勁執行力。

We grew adjusted operating income 11% from a year ago. Our adjusted operating margin expanded 130 basis points and adjusted EPS grew 10%. We also announced a 15% increase to our quarterly dividend to $0.815 and completed $300 million of share repurchases during the quarter.

調整後營業收入比一年前成長了 11%。調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 130 個基點，調整後的每股盈餘成長了 10%。我們還宣布將季度股息增加 15% 至 0.815 美元，並在本季度完成了 3 億美元的股票回購。

These results highlight our consistent focus on delivering in the near term, while investing for sustained growth over the long term. We're benefiting from organic investments we've made in our talent and capabilities. And we also continue to make high-quality acquisitions that build on the scale and breadth of our business.

這些結果凸顯了我們一貫注重短期交付，同時投資於長期持續成長。我們受益於我們對人才和能力的有機投資。我們也繼續進行高品質的收購，以擴大我們的業務規模和廣度。

In the second quarter, we announced several significant transactions. Mercer announced an agreement to acquire Cardano, a long term saving specialist in the UK and Netherlands. With approximately $66 billion in AUM, Cardano operates the third largest UK master trust platform and serves more than 2 million customers across 27,000 employers.

第二季度，我們宣布了幾項重大交易。美世宣布達成協議，收購英國和荷蘭的長期儲蓄專家卡爾達諾。 Cardano 擁有約 660 億美元的資產管理規模，經營英國第三大主信託平台，為 27,000 家雇主的超過 200 萬客戶提供服務。

This transaction builds on our leading position in OCIO, enhances our DC offerings, and adds important trading capabilities. Oliver Wyman agreed to acquire Veritas Total Solutions, an advisor in commodity and energy markets.

這項交易建立在我們在 OCIO 的領先地位之上，增強了我們的 DC 產品，並增加了重要的交易能力。奧緯諮詢同意收購大宗商品和能源市場顧問公司 Veritas Total Solutions。

And Marsh & McLennan Agency completed three acquisitions in the quarter. Fisher Brown Bottrell, one of the five largest bank affiliated agencies in the United States specializing in commercial P&C insurance and employee benefits, FBB expands our presence across the Southeast.

Marsh & McLennan Agency 在本季完成了三項收購。 Fisher Brown Bottrell 是美國五家最大的銀行附屬機構之一，專門從事商業財產與意外傷害保險和員工福利，FBB 正在擴大我們在東南部的業務。

AC Risk Management builds on our scale in commercial P&C in the Northeast and Perkins Insurance agencies adds to our commercial P&C business in Texas. Last week, MMA also announced the acquisition of Horton, a top 100 broker with over $100 million in revenue operating primarily in the Midwest.

AC 風險管理以我們在東北部的商業財產和意外傷害業務規模為基礎，Perkins 保險機構擴大了我們在德州的商業財產和意外傷害業務。上週，MMA 也宣布收購 Horton，這是一家主要在中西部營運、收入超過 1 億美元的 100 強經紀商。

And we recently announced the acquisitions of AmeriStar, a commercial P&C high-net-worth agency based in Minnesota and Hudson Shore, a public sector employee benefits agency in New Jersey. These acquisitions are great examples of our ability to attract the very best insurance agencies to our company. And along with high rates of sustained underlying growth, they've helped to make MMA a $3.5 billion annual revenue business.

我們最近也宣布收購 AmeriStar（位於明尼蘇達州的商業財產與意外傷害高淨值機構）和 Hudson Shore（位於新澤西州的公共部門員工福利機構）。這些收購很好地證明了我們有能力吸引最優秀的保險機構加入我們公司。加上持續的高成長率，他們幫助 MMA 成為年收入 35 億美元的業務。

We also continue to help our clients thrive by investing in innovation. Drawing on our expertise, perspective, data, and insights, we are creating new solutions for a complex environment. For example, Marsh continues to evolve Blue[i], a digital suite of solutions for insurance strategy decisions that uses our data and analytics to generate insights for clients.

我們也持續透過投資創新來幫助客戶蓬勃發展。憑藉我們的專業知識、觀點、數據和見解，我們正在為複雜的環境創建新的解決方案。例如，達信不斷發展 Blue[i]，這是一套用於保險策略決策的數位解決方案，利用我們的數據和分析為客戶提供見解。

This quarter, we added Blue[i] risk appetite analytics to help clients define the amount and type of risk they're willing to retain. With customizable calculations, our insights help clients navigate a challenging landscape with greater confidence.

本季度，我們新增了 Blue[i] 風險偏好分析，以協助客戶定義他們願意保留的風險數量和類型。透過可自訂的運算，我們的見解可以幫助客戶更有信心地應對充滿挑戰的環境。

Guy Carpenter launched CatStop+, a new solution to address the volatility of cyber risk using GC's proprietary analytics. CatStop offers clients protection against cyber cat losses.

Guy Carpenter 推出了 CatStop+，這是一種使用 GC 專有分析來解決網路風險波動性的新解決方案。 CatStop 為顧客提供網路貓損失保障。

Mercer launched SelectRx, a technology solution in the US that creates competition amongst pharmacies for high-cost specialty medications. Leveraging Free Market Health's cloud-based platform, SelectRx lowers cost for employers and deliver savings to employees by directing prescriptions to a curated network of specialty pharmacies.

美世在美國推出了 SelectRx，這是一種技術解決方案，在藥房之間對高成本的特殊藥物造成競爭。 SelectRx 利用 Free Market Health 的雲端平台，透過將處方定向到精心策劃的專業藥房網絡，降低了雇主的成本，並為員工節省了成本。

And Oliver Wyman is helping our clients innovate in their own businesses with the launch of Quotient, which combines our expertise in AI implementation, deployment, and strategic advisory with our deep industry knowledge.

奧緯諮詢正在透過推出 Quotient 來幫助我們的客戶在自己的業務中進行創新，它將我們在人工智慧實施、部署和策略諮詢方面的專業知識與我們深厚的行業知識結合起來。

Quotient moves clients beyond the hype surrounding AI to deliver real value and meaningful outcomes. Our approach to balancing near-term performance with investment in innovation delivers significant value to our clients. It also enables us to sustain growth over the long term and drive consistent exceptional performance for shareholders.

Quotient 讓客戶超越人工智慧的炒作，提供真正的價值和有意義的結果。我們平衡近期績效與創新投資的方法為我們的客戶帶來了巨大的價值。它還使我們能夠維持長期成長，並為股東帶來持續的卓越績效。

Shifting to the macro picture, we continue to see significant opportunity to help clients navigate the complexity they're facing today. Beyond the shocking assassination attempt in the US, the geopolitical backdrop is unsettled with ongoing wars and areas of attention across the globe.

轉向宏觀形勢，我們繼續看到幫助客戶應對當今面臨的複雜性的重要機會。除了美國令人震驚的暗殺企圖之外，地緣政治背景因全球持續不斷的戰爭和令人關注的領域而不穩定。

Uncertainty also remains around the frequency of extreme weather, escalating cyber attacks, and key variables in the economic outlook, like the persistence of inflation and the timing of changes to Central Bank policy. Despite this uncertainty, the environment remains supportive of growth in our business. In general, we see continued economic growth in most of our major markets.

極端天氣的頻率、不斷升級的網路攻擊以及經濟前景的關鍵變數（例如通貨膨脹的持續性和央行政策變化的時機）也仍然存在不確定性。儘管存在這種不確定性，環境仍然支持我們業務的成長。總體而言，我們看到大多數主要市場的經濟持續成長。

The cost of risk in healthcare continues to rise and labor markets remain tight. And the consensus probability of a near-term recession for major economies continues to decrease. We have performed well across economic cycles through the resilience of our business, sustained demand for our advice and solutions, and consistent execution for our clients.

醫療保健風險成本持續上升，勞動市場仍緊張。主要經濟體近期陷入衰退的共識機率持續下降。透過我們業務的彈性、對我們建議和解決方案的持續需求以及對客戶的一致執行，我們在整個經濟週期中表現良好。

Turning to insurance and reinsurance market conditions. The Marsh Global Insurance market index was flat overall in the second quarter versus a 1% increase in the first quarter. Generally, rates in the US, Europe, and Latin America continued to increase in the low to mid single digits, while the UK, Asia and Pacific saw low to mid-single digit decreases.

轉向保險和再保險市場狀況。達信全球保險市場指數第二季整體持平，第一季則上漲 1%。總體而言，美國、歐洲和拉丁美洲的利率持續以低至中個位數成長，而英國、亞太地區則出現低至中個位數下降。

Global Property rates were flat versus up 3% in the first quarter. Casualty increased in the low single digits with US excess casualty up 10% in the quarter, while workers' compensation decreased low single digits. Financial and professional liability rates and cyber pricing were down 5% and 6%, respectively.

全球房地產價格與第一季上漲 3% 持平。傷亡人數以低個位數增長，本季度美國超額傷亡人數增加了 10%，而工人賠償則以低個位數下降。財務和專業責任率以及網路定價分別下降了 5% 和 6%。

Midyear reinsurance renewals reflected increased demand for property cat with easing rates after significant increases in 2023. The majority of property placements were completed at renewal with adequate capacity. The global property cat reinsurance rates were generally flat to down mid single digits with greater decreases for upper layers on accounts without losses.

年中再保險續保反映了對房地產巨災的需求增加，繼 2023 年大幅增長後，費率有所放鬆。全球財產巨災再保險費率普遍持平或下降至個位數，其中無損失帳戶的上層保險費率下降幅度更大。

The cat bond market had the most active quarter on record with over 30 new bonds issued involving approximately $8 billion of limit. Casualty programs faced continued underwriting scrutiny, but there is adequate capacity in the market. Excess of loss programs with US exposure saw upward pricing pressure, while quota share ceding commissions were flat to down slightly. As always, we are helping our clients navigate these dynamic market conditions.

巨災債券市場經歷了有史以來最活躍的季度，發行了 30 多只新債券，涉及約 80 億美元的限額。傷亡保險計劃面臨持續的承保審查，但市場上有足夠的容量。與美國相關的過多損失計劃導致定價壓力上升，而配額份額讓渡佣金持平或略有下降。一如既往，我們正在幫助客戶應對這些動態的市場狀況。

Now let me turn to our second quarter financial performance. We generated adjusted EPS of $2.41, which is up 10% from a year ago. On an underlying basis, revenue grew 6%. Underlying revenue grew 7% in RIS and 4% in consulting. Marsh was up 7%, Guy Carpenter 11%, Mercer 5%, and Oliver Wyman grew 3%. Overall, the second quarter saw adjusted operating income growth of 11% and our adjusted operating margin expanded 130 basis points year over year.

現在讓我談談我們第二季的財務表現。調整後每股收益為 2.41 美元，比去年同期成長 10%。基本收入成長了 6%。 RIS 的基礎收入成長了 7%，諮詢業務的基礎收入成長了 4%。 Marsh 上漲 7%，Guy Carpenter 上漲 11%，Mercer 上漲 5%，Oliver Wyman 上漲 3%。整體而言，第二季調整後營業收入成長 11%，調整後營業利益率較去年同期擴大 130 個基點。

Turning to our outlook, we are well-positioned for another great year in 2024. We continue to expect mid-single digit or better underlying revenue growth, another year of margin expansion, and strong growth in adjusted EPS.

談到我們的展望，我們已做好充分準備，迎接2024 年又一個偉大的一年。收益將強勁成長。

Our outlook assumes current macro conditions persist. However, meaningful uncertainty remains and the economic backdrop could be materially different than our assumptions. Overall, I am proud of our second quarter performance, which demonstrates continued execution on key initiatives and momentum across our business. I'm grateful to our colleagues for their focus and determination and the value they deliver to our clients, shareholders, and communities. With that, let me turn it over to Mark for a more detailed review of our results.

我們的前景假設當前的宏觀狀況持續存在。然而，有意義的不確定性仍然存在，經濟背景可能與我們的假設有很大不同。總的來說，我對我們第二季的業績感到自豪，這表明我們對關鍵舉措的持續執行和整個業務的勢頭。我感謝我們的同事的專注和決心，以及他們為我們的客戶、股東和社區帶來的價值。接下來，讓我把它交給馬克，讓他對我們的結果進行更詳細的審查。

Thank you, John, and good morning. Our second quarter results were strong with solid underlying growth, significant margin expansion, and 10% growth in adjusted EPS. Our consolidated revenue increased 6% to $6.2 billion with underlying growth of 6%. Operating income was $1.6 billion and adjusted operating income was $1.7 billion, up 11%.

謝謝你，約翰，早安。我們第二季的業績強勁，基本成長穩固，利潤率顯著擴張，調整後每股收益成長 10%。我們的綜合收入成長了 6%，達到 62 億美元，基本成長率為 6%。營業收入為 16 億美元，調整後營業收入為 17 億美元，成長 11%。

Our adjusted operating margin increased 130 basis points to 29%. GAAP EPS was $2.27 and adjusted EPS was $2.41. For the first six months of 2024, underlying revenue growth was 8%. Our adjusted operating income grew 11% to $3.7 billion. Our adjusted operating margin increased 100 basis points. And our adjusted EPS increased 12% to $5.30.

調整後的營業利益率增加了 130 個基點，達到 29%。 GAAP 每股收益為 2.27 美元，調整後每股收益為 2.41 美元。 2024 年前六個月，基本收入成長率為 8%。我們調整後的營業收入成長了 11%，達到 37 億美元。調整後的營業利益率增加了 100 個基點。我們調整後的每股盈餘成長了 12%，達到 5.30 美元。

Looking at risk and insurance services, second quarter revenue was $4 billion, up 8% from a year ago or 7% on an underlying basis. This result marks the 14th consecutive quarter of 7% or higher underlying growth in RIS and continues the best structured growth in two decades.

在風險和保險服務方面，第二季營收為 40 億美元，比去年同期成長 8%，基本成長 7%。這一結果標誌著 RIS 連續第 14 個季度實現 7% 或更高的基本成長，並繼續保持二十年來最好的結構性成長。

RIS operating income was $1.3 billion in the second quarter. Adjusted operating income was also $1.3 billion up 12% over last year. And our adjusted operating margin expanded 110 basis points to 35.3%. For the first six months of the year, revenue in RIS was $8.3 billion with underlying growth of 8%.

RIS 第二季營業收入為 13 億美元。調整後營業收入也為 13 億美元，比去年成長 12%。調整後的營業利益率擴大了 110 個基點，達到 35.3%。今年前六個月，RIS 的營收為 83 億美元，基本成長率為 8%。

Adjusted operating income increased 12% to $2.9 billion and our margin increased 90 basis points to 37.3%. At Marsh revenue in the quarter was$ 3.3 billion, up 8% from a year ago or 7% on an underlying basis. This strong growth came on top of 10% growth in the second quarter of last year.

調整後營業收入成長 12%，達到 29 億美元，利潤率成長 90 個基點，達到 37.3%。達信本季營收為 33 億美元，比去年同期成長 8%，基本成長 7%。這一強勁成長是在去年第二季 10% 的基礎上實現的。

Growth in the second quarter reflected strong new business and solid renewals. In US and Canada underlying growth was 6% for the quarter, and international underlying growth was 7%. EMEA was up 7%. Asia Pacific grew 7%, and Latin America was up 8%.

第二季的成長反映了強勁的新業務和穩健的續訂。美國和加拿大本季的基本成長率為 6%，國際基本成長率為 7%。歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長了 7%。亞太地區成長 7%，拉丁美洲成長 8%。

For the first six months of the year, Marsh's revenue was $6.3 billion with underlying growth of 7%. US and Canada grew 7%, and international was up 8%. Guy Carpenter's revenue was $632 million in the quarter, up 10% or 11% on an underlying basis. This terrific result came on top of 11% growth last year and was driven by double-digit growth across most geographies and specialties.

今年前六個月，達信的收入為 63 億美元，基本成長率為 7%。美國和加拿大成長了 7%，國際成長了 8%。 Guy Carpenter 本季的營收為 6.32 億美元，年增 10% 或 11%。這一出色的業績是在去年 11% 的成長基礎上取得的，並且受到大多數地區和專業領域兩位數成長的推動。

For the first six months of the year, Guy Carpenter generated $1.8 billion of revenue and 9% underlying growth. In the consulting segment, second quarter revenue was $2.2 billion, up 2% from a year ago or 4% on an underlying base consulting operating income was $410 million and adjusted operating income was $426 million, up 6%.

今年前六個月，Guy Carpenter 創造了 18 億美元的收入，基本成長率為 9%。在諮詢領域，第二季營收為 22 億美元，年增 2%，年增 4%，基礎諮詢營運收入為 4.1 億美元，調整後營運收入為 4.26 億美元，成長 6%。

Our adjusted operating margin in consulting was 19.8% in the second quarter, an increase of 60 basis points. For the first six months of 2024, consulting revenue was $4.4 billion, reflecting underlying growth of 6%. Adjusted operating income increased 7% to $870 million and our margin increased 50 basis points to 20.3%.

第二季諮詢業務調整後營業利益率為 19.8%，成長了 60 個基點。 2024 年頭 6 個月，諮詢收入為 44 億美元，基本成長 6%。調整後營業收入成長 7%，達到 8.7 億美元，利潤率成長 50 個基點，達到 20.3%。

Mercer's revenue was $1.4 billion in the quarter, flat compared to a year ago, but up 5% on an underlying basis. This was Mercer's 13th straight quarter of 5% or higher underlying growth and continues the best run of growth in 15 years.

美世公司本季的營收為 14 億美元，與去年同期持平，但基本上成長了 5%。這是美世連續第 13 個季度實現 5% 或更高的基本成長，並延續了 15 年來的最佳成長勢頭。

Wealth grew 3%, driven by growth in both investment management and DB Consulting. Our assets under management were $492 billion at the end of the second quarter, up 1% sequentially and up 25% compared to the second quarter of last year.

在投資管理和 DB 諮詢業務成長的推動下，財富成長了 3%。截至第二季末，我們管理的資產規模為 4,920 億美元，較上季成長 1%，與去年第二季相比成長 25%。

Year-over-year growth was driven by our transaction with Vanguard, impact of capital markets, and positive net flows. Health underlying growth remained strong at 9% and reflected growth across all regions. Career revenue increased 2%, continuing the trend of modest growth following a two year stretch strong growth in demand.

年成長是由我們與先鋒集團的交易、資本市場的影響、正淨流量所推動的。健康基礎成長依然強勁，達到 9%，反映了所有地區的成長。職業收入成長了 2%，延續了連續兩年需求強勁成長後的小幅成長趨勢。

For the first six months of the year, revenue at Mercer was $2.8 billion with 6% underlying growth. Oliver Wyman's revenue in the quarter was $837 million, an increase of 3% on an underlying basis. This comes on top of 11% growth a year ago.

今年前六個月，美世的營收為 28 億美元，基本成長率為 6%。奧緯諮詢本季營收為 8.37 億美元，基本成長 3%。這一增幅高於一年前 11% 的增幅。

The first six months of the year, revenue at Oliver Wyman was $1.6 billion, an increase of 8% on an underlying basis, up from 6% growth in the first half of last year. Foreign exchange was a $0.02 headwind in the second quarter. Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we expect FX to be a $0.02 headwind in the third quarter and $0.02 in the fourth quarter.

今年前六個月，奧緯諮詢的收入為 16 億美元，基本上成長 8%，高於去年上半年的 6%。第二季外匯匯率出現 0.02 美元的逆風。假設匯率保持在當前水平，我們預計第三季外匯阻力為 0.02 美元，第四季度阻力為 0.02 美元。

Total noteworthy items in the quarter was $73 million. These included $44 million of restructuring costs, mostly related to the program we began in the fourth quarter of 2022, as well as some transaction-related expense. Our other net benefit credit was $66 million in the quarter. For the full year, we continue to expect our other net benefit credit will be approximately $265 million.

本季值得注意的項目總額為 7,300 萬美元。其中包括 4,400 萬美元的重組成本，主要與我們在 2022 年第四季啟動的計劃有關，以及一些與交易相關的費用。本季我們的其他淨收益信貸為 6,600 萬美元。對於全年，我們繼續預計其他淨收益信貸將約為 2.65 億美元。

Interest expense in the second quarter was $156 million, up from $146 million in the second quarter last year, reflecting higher levels of debt and higher interest rates. Based on our current forecast, we expect approximately $154 million of interest expense in the third quarter and approximately $620 million for the full year.

第二季利息支出為 1.56 億美元，高於去年第二季的 1.46 億美元，反映出債務水準較高和利率較高。根據我們目前的預測，我們預計第三季的利息支出約為 1.54 億美元，全年的利息支出約為 6.2 億美元。

Our adjusted effective tax rate in the second quarter was 26.2% compared with 24.2% in the second quarter of last year. Our tax rate in both periods benefited from favorable discrete items. Excluding discrete items, our adjusted effective tax rate was approximately 26.5%.

我們第二季調整後的有效稅率為26.2%，去年第二季為24.2%。我們在這兩個時期的稅率都受益於有利的離散項目。不包括離散項目，我們調整後的有效稅率約為 26.5%。

When we give forward guidance around our tax rate, we do not project discrete items, which can be positive or negative. Based on the current environment, we continue to expect an adjusted effective tax rate of between 25.5% and 26.5% for 2024.

當我們就稅率提供前瞻性指引時，我們不會預測離散項目，這些項目可能是正數，也可能是負數。基於目前環境，我們繼續預期2024年調整後有效稅率在25.5%至26.5%之間。

Turning to capital management or our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with total debt of $13.5 billion Our next scheduled debt maturity is in the first quarter of 2025 when $500 million of senior notes mature. We continue to expect to deploy approximately $4.5 billion of capital in 2024 across dividends, acquisitions, and share repurchases. The ultimate level of share repurchase will depend on how the M&A pipeline develops.

轉向資本管理或我們的資產負債表。本季結束時，我們的債務總額為 135 億美元。我們繼續預期 2024 年將在股利、收購和股票回購方面部署約 45 億美元的資本。股票回購的最終水準將取決於併購管道的發展。

Last week, we announced a 15% increase to our quarterly dividend, making this our 15th consecutive year of dividend growth. This comes on top of a 20% increase a year ago and reflects our strong earnings growth and confidence in our outlook.

上週，我們宣布將季度股息增加 15%，這也是我們連續第 15 年股息成長。這一數字比一年前成長了 20%，反映出我們強勁的獲利成長和對前景的信心。

Our cash position at the end of the second quarter was $1.7 billion. Uses of cash in the quarter totaled $1.2 billion and included $352 million for dividends, $500 million for acquisitions, and $300 million for share repurchase. For the first six months uses of cash totaled $2.2 billion and included $706 million for dividends, $847 million for acquisitions, and $600 million for share repurchases.

第二季末我們的現金部位為 17 億美元。本季現金使用總額為 12 億美元，其中包括 3.52 億美元用於股息、5 億美元用於收購以及 3 億美元用於股票回購。前六個月的現金使用總額為 22 億美元，其中包括 7.06 億美元用於股息、8.47 億美元用於收購以及 6 億美元用於股票回購。

While there continues to be uncertainty in the outlook for the global economy, we feel good about the momentum in our business and the current environment remains supportive of growth. Overall, our excellent first half leaves us well-positioned for another great year in 2024.

儘管全球經濟前景仍然存在不確定性，但我們對業務勢頭感覺良好，並且當前環境仍然支持成長。總體而言，上半年的出色表現讓我們為 2024 年又一個偉大的一年做好了準備。

Based on our outlook today, for the full year, we continue to expect mid-single digit or better underlying growth, margin expansion, and strong growth in adjusted EPS. And with that, I'm happy to turn it back to John.

根據我們今天的展望，我們繼續預計全年將實現中個位數或更好的基本成長、利潤率擴張以及調整後每股盈餘的強勁成長。至此，我很高興將其轉回給約翰。

Thank you, Mark. Andrew, we are ready to begin Q&A.

謝謝你，馬克。安德魯，我們準備開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）David Motemaden，Evercore ISI。

Thanks, good morning. Just had a question on the underlying revenue growth outlook of mid-single digit or greater. You guys just did 8% in the first half of underlying revenue growth, but aren't increasing the range to high single digit. Could you just help me think through the puts and takes in terms of why you guys aren't increasing the range?

謝謝，早安。剛剛對中個位數或更高的基本收入成長前景有疑問。你們上半年的基本營收成長僅 8%，但並未將成長幅度提高到高個位數。你能幫我思考看跌期權和看跌期權，以及為什麼你們不增加範圍嗎？

Good morning, David. Sure. First of all, I'll just say I was pleased with our growth in the quarter, is on top of a very big quarter a year ago at 11%. Marsh had good, solid growth by region and practice on top of a tough comp. Guy Carpenter had an excellent quarter. Market improvements led to increased demand after a pretty volatile reinsurance market in 2023.

早安，大衛。當然。首先，我想說的是，我對本季的成長感到滿意，高於一年前 11% 的大幅成長。達信在各地區和實踐方面取得了良好、穩健的成長，同時也面臨嚴峻的競爭。蓋伊·卡彭特（Guy Carpenter）度過了一個出色的季度。繼 2023 年再保險市場相當波動之後，市場改善導致需求增加。

Mercer again, had another solid quarter of growth. As Mark noted in his comments, best growth, stretch growth in a long period of time. Health remains very strong. Wealth growth was solid. And we actually saw an uptick in Career growth from the first quarter.

美世再次實現了又一個穩健的成長。正如馬克在他的評論中指出的那樣，最好的增長是在很長一段時間內的拉伸增長。健康狀況仍然非常強勁。財富增長穩健。事實上，我們看到職業成長比第一季有所上升。

Oliver Wyman had a very tough comp, but had growth and has had good growth year to date and as we pointed out in the past, we'll have more quarter to quarter volatility than our other businesses. What I would say is broadly speaking, the macros continue to be supportive of growth.

奧緯諮詢的業績非常艱難，但也實現了成長，今年迄今成長良好，正如我們過去指出的那樣，我們的季度波動性將高於其他業務。我想說的是，從廣義上講，宏觀經濟繼續支持成長。

It's a risky environment we're all operating in, but GDP, inflation, labor markets, the costs, rising cost of risk, rising cost of healthcare, all supportive and I feel like we're very well-positioned. We have the best talent in the markets that we we compete in. And so we're positive on our outlook. For the second half, that again remains a good market for us. And so we feel good about where we are.

我們都在一個充滿風險的環境中運營，但國內生產總值、通貨膨脹、勞動力市場、成本、風險成本上升、醫療保健成本上升，所有這些都支持我們，我覺得我們處於非常有利的位置。我們在競爭的市場中擁有最優秀的人才。下半年，這對我們來說仍然是一個很好的市場。所以我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。

Got it. Thanks, John. And then Mark, I think you mentioned on last quarter's call that you guys are expecting greater margin expansion in the second half than in the first half, is that still the case?

知道了。謝謝，約翰。然後馬克，我想您在上個季度的電話會議上提到，你們預計下半年的利潤率擴張將比上半年更大，現在仍然如此嗎？

You want to go ahead, Mark?

你想繼續嗎，馬克？

Yeah, we're really happy with 130 basis points, and it validated the statements we made about the first quarter margin expansion facing headwinds from several items. So we're glad to see the acceleration, and we're on track for solid margin expansion for the year.

是的，我們對 130 個基點感到非常滿意，它驗證了我們關於第一季利潤擴張面臨多個專案阻力的聲明。因此，我們很高興看到這種加速成長，並且我們預計今年將實現穩健的利潤率擴張。

Thank you, David. Andrew, next question.

謝謝你，大衛。安德魯，下一個問題。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

吉米·布拉爾，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning. So first, John, just following up on your comments on Oliver Wyman, the growth this quarter slowed versus what it's been the last few quarters. How much of that is a function of just tough comps and normal volatility in the business versus maybe a slowdown in the pipeline?

嗨，早安。首先，約翰，跟進您對奧緯諮詢的評論，本季的成長與過去幾季相比有所放緩。其中有多少是由於艱難的競爭和業務的正常波動而不是管道的放緩？

Yeah, Jimmy, thanks for the question. And I'll hand it to Nick here. But I think it's some of both, right, but it was a tough comp for sure. But we feel very good about the year-to-date growth. Nick, you want to add a little bit more data?

是的，吉米，謝謝你的提問。我會把它交給尼克。但我認為兩者兼而有之，對吧，但這確實是一場艱難的比賽。但我們對今年迄今為止的成長感到非常滿意。尼克，你想增加更多數據嗎？

I think John's right, Jimmy, it's a little bit of both, but in the same way that I noted last quarter, that 13% was against a weak 0% comp this three years against the tougher 11%. About 8% year to date, I think is bang in that zone of mid to high single digit growth we expect to average through the cycle.

我認為約翰是對的，吉米，兩者都有一點，但就像我上個季度指出的那樣，這三年來 13% 是相對於較弱的 0% 相對於更艱難的 11%。今年迄今為止大約 8%，我認為在我們預計整個週期平均成長的中高個位數成長區域中是巨大的。

And as you know, our quarters are always somewhat volatile. Mark kindly noted in his comments that the first half actually accelerated versus the first half last year. To give you a little bit of color on where we are seeing higher growth regionally, both Asia and India, Middle East, and Africa regions have continued on strong growth.

如您所知，我們的季度總是有些不穩定。馬克在評論中善意地指出，與去年上半年相比，上半年實際上有所加速。為了讓您了解我們在哪些地區看到了更高的成長，亞洲和印度、中東和非洲地區都持續強勁成長。

From an industry perspective, our communications media, and technology practice has been our fastest growing year to date, but our very strong banking and insurance practices also in positive territory, as is our public sector practice and we have a wide array of capabilities. Our economic research business mirror growing strongly, our market leading finance and risk practice, particularly financial services, our pricing team, and importantly, our people and organizational performance practice, which really was across our industries to help on big client transformative moment.

從行業角度來看，我們的通訊媒體和技術實踐是迄今為止增長最快的一年，但我們非常強大的銀行和保險實踐也處於積極的領域，我們的公共部門實踐也是如此，並且我們擁有廣泛的能力。我們的經濟研究業務的強勁增長反映了我們市場領先的金融和風險實踐，特別是金融服務，我們的定價團隊，更重要的是，我們的人員和組織績效實踐，這確實在我們的行業中為大客戶轉型時刻提供了幫助。

But the market is a little bit uncertain. While the economy seems to be better, it's still a pressured environment for discretionary spending. Some uncertainties, as John and Mark have highlighted. And we do see, we're sort of working through some pricing pressure due to excess capacity as some of our competitors work through some of our headcount actions.

但市場有點不確定。儘管經濟似乎有所好轉，但可自由支配支出仍面臨壓力。正如約翰和馬克所強調的，存在著一些不確定性。我們確實看到，我們正在應對由於產能過剩而產生的一些定價壓力，因為我們的一些競爭對手正在透過我們的一些人員配置行動來應對。

Thank you, Nick. Jimmy, do you have a follow-up here?

謝謝你，尼克。吉米，你有後續行動嗎？

Yeah, just on and maybe for Mark on fiduciary investment income, it's been sort of flattish on a sequential basis, so should we assume given where rates are that going forward it's going to grow just with the growth in the business or was the sequential flat results in 2Q more of a function of seasonality and balances and other factors?

是的，也許馬克的信託投資收入環比持平，所以我們是否應該假設，考慮到利率水平，未來它會隨著業務的增長而增長，還是環比持平第二季度的結果更多是季節性和平衡以及其他因素的函數？

Mark?

標記？

Jimmy, there is seasonality in balances as we've talked about in the past. But I think the biggest driver I think from here is just going to be the outlook for rates as we've talked about and you saw in our balance sheet in the quarter, it's got about $11.5 billion of fiduciary balances.

吉米，正如我們過去討論過的，餘額存在季節性。但我認為最大的推動因素是利率前景，正如我們所討論的，你在本季度的資產負債表中看到，它有大約 115 億美元的信託餘額。

So I think just where we go from here is just going to be what the central banks do with short-term interest rates. And just as you're modeling going forward, keep in mind our balances do reflect the revenue mix of our business. So it's not just US rates, obviously that drive we've got balances because of the distributed nature of business all over the world. Yeah, so as I said, the outlook really is going to be mostly a function of what the rate picture looks like.

所以我認為我們接下來要做的就是央行如何處理短期利率。正如您在未來進行建模一樣，請記住我們的餘額確實反映了我們業務的收入組合。因此，這不僅僅是美國的利率，顯然，由於世界各地業務的分散性質，我們獲得了平衡。是的，正如我所說，前景實際上主要取決於利率情況。

Thank you, Jimmy. Andrew, next question.

謝謝你，吉米。安德魯，下一個問題。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊麗絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

Hi, thanks, good morning. My first question, within RIS, can you give us a sense of how much the expenses, healthcare margins in the quarter?

嗨，謝謝，早安。我的第一個問題是，在 RIS 內部，您能否讓我們了解本季的費用和醫療保健利潤是多少？

Expense saves or (multiple speakers) -- okay, sure. Thanks, Elyse. Mark?

節省開支或（多個發言者）——好吧，當然。謝謝，愛麗絲。標記？

At least we're definitely seeing the benefit of it. We've stayed away from quantifying specifically how much is going to drop quarter to quarter. But you just even see the trend in expense growth quarter to quarter. That was definitely a factor. Our strong growth and the benefit of savings contributed to the 130 basis points of margin expansion. So as I said, we haven't quantified the amount that we're seeing each quarter, but we are on track for the level of savings that we talked about. And we're seeing the benefit of it.

至少我們確實看到了它的好處。我們沒有具體量化每季會下降多少。但您甚至可以看到逐季度費用成長的趨勢。這絕對是一個因素。我們的強勁成長和儲蓄效益使利潤率擴大了 130 個基點。正如我所說，我們尚未量化每個季度的金額，但我們正在朝著我們談到的節省水平邁進。我們正在看到它的好處。

Do you have a follow up Elyse?

你有後續的愛麗絲嗎？

Yeah. So then my second question within Marsh, could you just give us a sense of what you're seeing some more color in both the US and internationally within organic growth, both for the Q2? And then how you think about the outlook comps in the back half of the year, and US or internationally, are you guys more indexed to property in one versus the other?

是的。那麼我在達信提出的第二個問題是，您能否讓我們了解您在美國和國際上第二季度的有機成長中看到的更多色彩？然後，您如何看待下半年的前景比較，無論是美國還是國際，您是否對房地產的指數更高？

Yeah, I mean, the markets are quite dynamic, right. And so I would just caution you a little bit on pricing, right. I think Guy Carpenter's a good indication of that, right. So we saw a better market lead to increase demand.

是的，我的意思是，市場非常活躍，對吧。因此，我只是在定價方面提醒您一點，對吧。我認為蓋伊·卡彭特很好地說明了這一點，對吧。所以我們看到更好的市場導致需求增加。

But as I mentioned earlier, it was a good solid growth by region and by practice, again inn the second quarter and on top of a tough comp. But Martin, maybe you could share a little bit more more color on the growth international versus US and the demand you're seeing.

但正如我之前提到的，在第二季度和艱難的競爭之上，按地區和實踐來看，這是一個良好的穩健增長。但是馬丁，也許你可以分享更多有關國際與美國的成長以及你所看到的需求的資訊。

Sure. Just to restate, seven in the quarter, which is on top of 10 for the second quarter of '23, quite balanced growth; international, seven; US -- six -- US and Canada at six. Our US business MMA continue to perform very well. In the US, Canada had a weaker quarter, some macros, they're effective that pull down a little bit a bit across the international region.

當然。重申一下，本季有 7 個成長點，高於 2023 年第二季的 10 個成長點，成長相當平衡；國際，七；美國——六——美國和加拿大六。我們的美國商業 MMA 繼續表現出色。美國、加拿大的季度表現較弱，一些宏觀經濟數據有效地拉低了整個國際地區的水平。

International was 7 on top of 10 in '23. Asia Pacific accelerated from seven on top of six in '23. Latin America did 8 on top of 17 in the second quarter of '23, and EMEA did 7 on top of 11 in '23. The performance was driven really by very strong performance internationally. And in the benefits business, construction, energy, and power all came off strong double digit growth as well, repeating what happened last year.

國際隊在 23 年排名第 10 位，排名第 7 位。 23 年，亞太地區的排名從第七位上升至第六位。拉丁美洲在 23 年第二季的 17 項基礎上完成了 8 項，歐洲、中東和非洲在 23 年的 11 項基礎上完成了 7 項。這一業績實際上是由國際上非常強勁的業績所推動的。在福利業務方面，建築、能源和電力也都實現了兩位數的強勁成長，重複了去年的情況。

We're beginning to see some revitalization in the US capital markets, which had been a headwind for new business growth going back to 21. Renewal base growth was strong and solid and as is new business in both US and Canada and international.

我們開始看到美國資本市場出現一些復甦，這在 21 世紀以來一直是新業務成長的阻力。

And our lost business improved slightly as we continue to build stickier relationships with clients as we engage more deeply and we aspire to be the risk adviser of the future talking to them well beyond conventional risks.

隨著我們繼續與客戶建立更緊密的關係，我們的損失業務略有改善，我們更加深入參與，我們渴望成為未來的風險顧問，與他們交談的範圍遠遠超出傳統風險。

We feel very well-positioned. Overall, the mix of premium in the US will be more weighted to casualty in its broad terms and probably more balanced in international for property casualty, probably to answer your question.

我們感覺自己處於非常有利的位置。總體而言，從廣義上講，美國的保費組合將更注重傷亡，而在國際上，財產傷亡的保費組合可能會更加平衡，這可能會回答您的問題。

Yeah, reflection of liability environment in US for sure. Thank you, Elyse, and thanks, Martin. Andrew, next question.

是的，這肯定反映了美國的責任環境。謝謝你，愛麗絲，謝謝你，馬丁。安德魯，下一個問題。

Scott Heleniak, RBC Capital Markets.

Scott Heleniak，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Yeah, good morning. Just a quick question. Given the M&A pace has been pretty strong over past few quarters and certainly for the year, I'm just wondering if we should assume kind of a deceleration in the run rate for share buybacks in the second half versus the first half. Just how are you thinking about that? And how is your M&A tracking versus kind of what you thought going into the year?

是的，早安。只是一個簡單的問題。鑑於過去幾季以及今年的併購步伐相當強勁，我只是想知道我們是否應該假設下半年股票回購的運行速度比上半年有所放緩。你是怎麼想的？與您預計的今年情況相比，您的併購追蹤情況如何？

Yeah, sure, Scott. Thanks for the question. No change to our philosophy, we continue to take a balanced approach to capital management. We have about $4.5 billion to deploy during the course of the year. Broadly speaking, we favor attractive investments in our business, whether it's organic or inorganic over buybacks. But we're not going to let cash build up on the balance sheet either.

是的，當然，斯科特。謝謝你的提問。我們的理念沒有改變，我們繼續採取平衡的資本管理方式。今年我們有大約 45 億美元可供部署。從廣義上講，我們更喜歡對我們的業務進行有吸引力的投資，無論是有機投資還是無機投資，而不是回購。但我們也不會讓現金在資產負債表上累積。

As I noted earlier, we increased our dividend beginning in this quarter and we aspire to raise our dividend every year. We bought back $300 million of shares in the second quarter. We're pleased with what we've seen in the in the M&A market. As I said, it was an active quarter, we announced a couple of deals really at the start here of the second quarter just after the July 1. And so we're excited about those deals and we'll continue to be active in the market.

正如我之前指出的，我們從本季度開始增加了股息，並且我們希望每年都增加股息。我們在第二季回購了 3 億美元的股票。我們對併購市場的情況感到滿意。正如我所說，這是一個活躍的季度，我們在 7 月 1 日之後的第二季度初就宣布了幾筆交易。

But ultimately, the amount of share repurchase will depend on what's obviously a volatile M&A. You never know what the ultimate outcome will be in M&A, but we're seeing some good opportunities to invest in our business.

但最終，股票回購的金額將取決於明顯波動的併購。你永遠不知道併購的最終結果是什麼，但我們看到了一些投資我們業務的好機會。

Do you have a follow-up?

你有後續行動嗎？

Yeah, just one quick one to just generally on Mercer, the health organic growth really strong again at 9% has been strong for quarter one. And career and wealth, I guess, was a little bit slower compared to health. But just wondering if you can just kind of flush out what you're seeing there, the strength in health versus the other areas, if there's anything kind of hold mode back those areas besides just the kind of difficult comps?

是的，我簡單說一下美世的整體情況，第一季的健康有機成長再次強勁，達到 9%。我想，與健康相比，事業和財富的發展要慢一些。但只是想知道你是否可以沖掉你在那裡看到的東西，健康狀況與其他領域的優勢，除了那種困難的比賽之外，是否有任何類型的保留模式來支持這些領域？

Yeah. Thanks, Scott. And I'll ask Pat to comment in a second, but I mentioned rising healthcare costs in my opening remarks, a big pressure point for our clients in this economy. And particularly given tight labor markets in most major economies around the world, so it's really a terrific value we're delivering to our clients in a very tough marketplace there. Wealth is going to have some volatility as well career of quarter to quarter. But Pat, maybe you could talk a little bit about what we're seeing in the marketplace.

是的。謝謝，斯科特。我稍後會請帕特發表評論，但我在開場白中提到了不斷上漲的醫療保健成本，這對我們的客戶在當前經濟形勢下是一個巨大的壓力點。特別是考慮到全球大多數主要經濟體的勞動力市場緊張，因此我們在非常艱難的市場中為客戶提供的確實是一個了不起的價值。財富和職業生涯每個季度都會有一些波動。但是帕特，也許你可以談談我們在市場上看到的情況。

Sure, thanks so much for the question. First off, I'm pleased with the Q2 underlying growth of 5% as market highlighted, our 13th consecutive quarter with 5% or more growth and that all the practices are contributing to growth.

當然，非常感謝您的提問。首先，我對第二季 5% 的基本成長感到滿意，正如市場所強調的那樣，我們連續第 13 個季度實現 5% 或以上的成長，並且所有做法都有助於成長。

Certainly health has been has been contributing at a higher rate. Quickly to kind of go through the practices and what we're seeing, health, as you highlighted, had that impressive quarter with 9% growth. The strong performance was broad-based, right. So there was double-digit growth across most regions.

當然，健康狀況的貢獻率更高。快速回顧實踐和我們所看到的情況，正如您所強調的那樣，健康領域的季度成長率令人印象深刻，成長了 9%。強勁的表現是廣泛的，對吧。因此，大多數地區都實現了兩位數的成長。

It comes predominantly from investments in hiring new talent, investments in thought leadership, including our health on-demand survey, new digital tools, and a focus on client segmentation that's really designed to match our clients' healthcare needs with our innovative and tailored solutions.

它主要來自於招募新人才的投資、思想領導力的投資，包括我們的健康按需調查、新的數位工具以及對客戶細分的關注，這些投資真正旨在透過我們的創新和客製化解決方案來滿足客戶的醫療保健需求。

We benefited from renewal and some new business growth, some insurable revenue and has been highlighted a couple of times in the call , medical cost inflation on. Certainly, we continue to see strong demand for digital solutions and innovative benefits, underscoring really the value and the breadth of advice and solutions we bring to clients.

我們受益於續約和一些新業務的成長，一些可保收入，並且在電話會議中多次強調了醫療成本通膨。當然，我們繼續看到對數位解決方案和創新優勢的強勁需求，這真正凸顯了我們為客戶提供的建議和解決方案的價值和廣度。

Lowest growth in wealth and career. Let me quickly go through them. Wealth, we grew to 3% in Q2. That was balanced between DBA and IMS, right. So DB plans, funding status continue to benefit from elevated interest rates. It's driving an increase in project work, predominantly revolving around risk transfers as well as certain regulatory requirements that are out in some of the jurisdictions around the world.

財富和職業成長最低。讓我快速瀏覽一下它們。財富方面，第二季成長至 3%。這在 DBA 和 IMS 之間取得了平衡，對吧。因此DB計劃的資金狀況繼續受惠於利率上升。它推動了專案工作的增加，主要圍繞著風險轉移以及世界上一些司法管轄區的某些監管要求。

We had in the volatile capital markets, it's been driving some strong demand for actuarial and the investment solutions. John had highlighted it, in USA, we did benefit from the transaction with Vanguard. We had some net new inflows and capital markets also provided a revenue.

我們在動盪的資本市場中推動了對精算和投資解決方案的強勁需求。約翰強調了這一點，在美國，我們確實從與先鋒集團的交易中受益。我們有一些新的淨流入，資本市場也提供了收入。

It's important to note that on IMS, from a business perspective, it's a portfolio of solutions right that includes some advisory work there and some DC administration in addition to OCIO. So a lot of times it's typically looked at as OCIO and only our OCIO business is directly impacted by AUM.

值得注意的是，從業務角度來看，IMS 是一個解決方案組合，除了 OCIO 之外，還包括一些顧問工作和一些 DC 管理。所以很多時候它通常被視為 OCIO，只有我們的 OCIO 業務會直接受到 AUM 的影響。

So as we've seen a market run-up, really, we only have a subset of that business that's directly impacted by AUM. And our AUM is a diversified portfolio where equities only makeup of that half of our exposure, right, because we have a lot of clients that have a heavy fixed income exposure. So while the markets can drive some volatility for us, the impact of equity markets is a bit more muted in IMS growth.

因此，正如我們看到的市場上漲一樣，實際上，我們只有一部分業務直接受到資產管理規模的影響。我們的資產管理規模是一個多元化的投資組合，其中股票僅占我們風險敞口的一半，對吧，因為我們有很多客戶擁有大量的固定收益敞口。因此，雖然市場可能會為我們帶來一些波動，但股票市場對 IMS 成長的影響要小一些。

And then on career, which had the most modest growth of 2%, which was up sequentially over quarter, it is following a long period of growth after the pandemic. We saw good growth momentum from a couple of our practices, talent and transformation. Rewards was a bit more muted.

然後是職業生涯，其增長幅度最小，為 2%，比季度連續增長，這是在大流行後經歷了長期增長。我們從我們的實踐、人才和轉型中看到了良好的成長動能。獎勵有點無聲。

And I think that's predominantly reflecting the impact of lower wage inflation and reduced employee turnover, which is driving some slightly lower demand for our clients that rewards projects.

我認為這主要反映了薪資通膨下降和員工流動率下降的影響，這導致我們的客戶對獎勵項目的需求略有下降。

But I think it's also important to note here that while the growth rates called down, it's been flat even over the last couple of quarters, it's been a bit more modest, the overall size of our career practice is nearly 20% larger than it was pre-pandemic. So we feel very strong about that, that we've been able to maintain those levels in a predominantly project-based business. So overall, I think the conditions have us very positive about the outlook for Mercer.

但我認為這裡還需要注意的是，雖然成長率有所下降，但即使在過去幾個季度中，成長率也持平，只是稍微溫和一些，我們職業實踐的總體規模比以前大了近 20%大流行前。因此，我們對此感到非常堅定，我們已經能夠在主要基於專案的業務中保持這些水準。總的來說，我認為這些條件讓我們對美世的前景非常樂觀。

Terrific. Thank you, Pat. Scott, thank you for your questions. Andrew, next question.

了不起。謝謝你，帕特。斯科特，謝謝你的提問。安德魯，下一個問題。

Michael Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

Michael Zaremski，BMO 資本市場。

Okay, great. Good morning. Focusing on the property tax deep pricing environment, I guess, competitive environment, John, I believe you said the Marsh index to solve again to zero from one. Just curious, given Marsh does have a lot more or small to mid account business now to it, it feels like there's two different scales of different stories going on between the large account and the SMID accounts, I don't know if you'd agree with that. And if yes, if any color you could offer, like kind of why we're seeing at two different trends there on pricing.

好的，太好了。早安.重點關注房產稅深層的定價環境，我猜，競爭環境，約翰，我相信你說的馬什指數要解決從一到零的問題。只是好奇，考慮到達信現在確實擁有更多或中小型帳戶業務，感覺大型帳戶和 SMID 帳戶之間正在發生兩種不同規模的不同故事，我不知道您是否願意同意這一點。如果是的話，如果您可以提供任何顏色，就像我們在定價上看到兩種不同趨勢的原因一樣。

Sure, Mike. Thanks for the question. I'll share some high-level thoughts and then maybe I'll ask both Martin and Dean to talk about some market observations. I would note, Mike, just right out of the gate here that typically larger account pricing has more volatility attached to it. If you look back on historical cycles, that's been the case.

當然，麥克。謝謝你的提問。我將分享一些高層次的想法，然後也許我會請馬丁和迪恩談論一些市場觀察。麥克，我要指出的是，通常較大的帳戶定價會帶來更大的波動性。如果你回顧歷史週期，情況就是如此。

Mid market pricing has historically been more stable or more consistent, I guess, and have less volatility from cycle to cycle. And our index is weighted towards large accounts to be clear where we have the best data. But insurance and reinsurance markets continued to settle in the quarter after what's been many years of increases.

我認為，中期市場定價歷來更加穩定或更一致，且各個週期的波動性較小。我們的指數針對大型帳戶進行加權，以明確我們在哪裡擁有最好的數據。但保險和再保險市場在經歷了多年的成長之後，本季繼續穩定下來。

It's not just middle versus large, it's a collection of markets. And as I pointed out in my prepared remarks, cyber and FINPRO maybe the best example, prices continue to moderate. Some segments of market are showing some what might be early signs of stress US excess casualty, for example, prices were up 10%, lost cost inflation there remains quite challenging.

這不僅是中型與大型的比較，而是市場的集合。正如我在準備好的演講中指出的那樣，網絡和 FINPRO 可能是最好的例子，價格繼續溫和。部分市場正在顯示出一些可能是美國過度傷亡壓力的早期跡象，例如，價格上漲了 10%，損失成本通膨仍然相當具有挑戰性。

But overall, right now, markets are providing an opportunity for our clients to revisit some decisions they've made about financing risk. The tighter market conditions led them to make certain decisions. So it's a welcome moment for many of our clients to revisit some of those decisions.

但總體而言，目前市場為我們的客戶提供了重新審視他們就融資風險做出的一些決定的機會。市場情勢趨緊導致他們做出了某些決定。因此，對於我們的許多客戶來說，現在是重新審視其中一些決定的好時機。

And at Guy Carpenter, as I mentioned earlier, it led to greater demand in the second quarter as evidenced by our strong growth. But Martin, maybe you could share a little bit more color on what we're seeing in the pricing market.

在蓋伊·卡彭特，正如我之前提到的，這導致第二季的需求更大，我們的強勁成長證明了這一點。但是馬丁，也許你可以分享更多關於我們在定價市場上看到的情況的資訊。

Sure. Just reminding ourselves, 26 courses of rate increases, which just turned flat now. And as John noted, our index is much more towards the larger account segments of our business and obviously the mid-market business and the smaller end has less volatility in pricing. But just by line of business casualty in the US is up 3%, which, as John said, is really dominated by the 10% increase in the umbrella about which we talked about in earlier calls about the volatility in claims inflation there.

當然。只是提醒我們自己，26 個課程的費率上漲，現在剛剛轉為持平。正如約翰指出的那樣，我們的指數更多地針對我們業務中較大的客戶部分，顯然是中端市場業務，而較小端的定價波動較小。但僅就美國的商業傷亡人數而言，就上升了 3%，正如約翰所說，這實際上是由我們在之前關於索賠通膨波動的電話中談到的保護傘 10% 的增長所主導的。

Property is flat in most regions, except for the Middle East and India, where we're still seeing some increases in property, maybe as a result of some of the activity in the Middle East in this past quarter. Core FINPRO contracting at 5% with rate decline pretty much across the world.

大多數地區的房地產價格持平，但中東和印度除外，我們仍然看到房地產價格有所增長，這可能是由於上個季度中東的一些活動所致。核心 FINPRO 收縮 5%，全球利率大幅下降。

And cyber contracting 6%, which is mostly consistent with what we saw in Q1. The pricing trend is consistent. With recent closes, we're seeing some slight increases in geographies, but rate contraction is more the norm. And so those are the key issues really that I would comment on that.

網路承包率為 6%，這與我們在第一季看到的情況基本一致。定價趨勢一致。從最近的收盤來看，我們看到地區略有增加，但利率收縮更常見。這些確實是我要評論的關鍵問題。

But of course, as far as our business is concerned, a lot of our businesses is fee based or control commission basis and exposure growth has been (technical difficulty) over the last few years as well, which is a counterweight to that.

但當然，就我們的業務而言，我們的許多業務都是基於收費或控制佣金的，並且過去幾年的風險敞口增長（技術難度）也是如此，這是對此的平衡。

Thanks, Martyn. Dean, maybe you could just quickly cover the reinsurance market.

謝謝，馬丁。 Dean，也許你可以快速涵蓋再保險市場。

Yeah. Thanks, John. And Mike, just a couple of headlines about the property cat reinsurance market, which certainly is connected to the underlying property market that Martin was describing. As John noted, it's much more predictable and smoothed market than we experienced last year in the 2023 hard market for property cat.

是的。謝謝，約翰。麥克，只是關於房地產貓再保險市場的幾個頭條新聞，這當然與馬丁所描述的基礎房地產市場有關。正如 John 指出的那樣，與我們去年在 2023 年房地產硬市場中經歷的情況相比，今年的市場更加可預測且更加平穩。

Placements have been completed on time. There's been adequate capacity in the marketplace for our clients. There's an increased reinsure appetite in the market. And we know what, right they're driving 20%-plus ROEs in this market, given the rate increases of last year and higher attachment points, our client's been forced to absorb with greater volatility.

安置已按時完成。市場上有足夠的容量供我們的客戶使用。市場上的再保險需求增加。我們知道，考慮到去年的利率上漲和更高的附著點，他們在這個市場上推動了 20% 以上的 ROE，我們的客戶被迫承受更大的波動。

We're seeing very strong ILS activity in the market. John noted, record cat bond issuance in the quarter, 34 discrete cat bonds, some $8 billion of limit in the quarter. And I think that, you know, we're seeing moderating cat rates in the market compared to 2023. But I would say that if you look at year-over-year premium spend for property cat and our rate online index, it's still up 1% year over year, it has not gone negative in the market.

我們看到市場上的 ILS 活動非常強勁。 John 指出，本季巨災債券發行量創歷史新高，共有 34 隻離散巨災債券，本季發行限額約 80 億美元。我認為，與 2023 年相比，我們看到市場上的貓費率有所下降。年成長1%，市場並未出現負值。

And really, as John noted, Mike, I think the headline, the key takeaway is significant increased client demand for additional property cat limit. In the first half of the year, two-thirds of our US clients bought more property cat coverage across an additional $10 billion of limit, which is truly significant in the marketplace. We're also seeing clients, reinsurers buying more retro session coverage with improved pricing, market dynamics, improved appetite by sellers, both rated and ILS vehicles in the market.

事實上，正如約翰指出的那樣，麥克，我認為標題的關鍵要點是客戶對額外財產貓限額的需求顯著增加。今年上半年，我們三分之二的美國客戶購買了更多的財產貓保險，限額增加了 100 億美元，這在市場上確實意義重大。我們還看到客戶、再保險公司透過改善定價、市場動態以及市場上的評級和 ILS 車輛的賣家興趣的改善來購買更多的復古會話保險。

And I think the last headline for you is there's caution in the property market. There's $50 billion-plus of insured losses in the first half of the year. When you think about severe convective storms in the US and Japan, Taiwanese earthquakes, floods in Germany, the UAE, Baltimore bridge collapse, Hurricane Beryl. I mean, we could be on track for now another $100 billion a year of insured losses. So there's caution in the market around property and property cat.

我認為最後一個標題是房地產市場的謹慎態度。今年上半年的保險損失超過 500 億美元。當你想到美國和日本的強烈對流風暴、台灣的地震、德國、阿聯酋的洪水、巴爾的摩大橋倒塌、颶風貝裡爾。我的意思是，我們現在每年可能會面臨另外 1000 億美元的保險損失。因此，市場對房地產和房地產貓持謹慎態度。

Thanks, Dean. So Mike, not a big shift from the first quarter, but a modest evolving market more in favor of buyers. And so that obviously factors into the advice we give to our clients and help them navigate what's a world where, again, the cost of risk continues to escalate. Do you have a follow-up?

謝謝，迪恩。因此，麥克，與第一季相比並沒有發生很大的變化，但市場的溫和發展更有利於買家。因此，這顯然會影響我們向客戶提供的建議，並幫助他們應對風險成本不斷上升的世界。你有後續行動嗎？

A very quick follow-up. Thank you. Just not the nitpick, but I'm just looking at total revenue growth and I guess ultimately EBITDA adjusted, I think, divestitures and may be a little FX is what I think us and maybe the consensus was off a little bit. So I just want to make sure there's nothing missing. It's still a net acquirer in terms of M&A. But is there chunky divestitures? Is there anything I should be thinking about in the very near term in terms of that impact?

非常快速的跟進。謝謝。只是不是吹毛求疵，但我只是專注於總收入成長，我想最終 EBITDA 會進行調整，我認為，資產剝離，可能還有一點外匯，這就是我認為我們的情況，也許共識有點偏離。所以我只是想確保沒有遺漏任何東西。就併購而言，它仍然是淨收購者。但是否存在大規模資產剝離？就這種影響而言，我短期內應該考慮什麼？

No, I mean, at Mercer, we sold two admin businesses, one in the US and one in the UK to Aptia. The reason we sold them is they're relatively low growth and lower margin businesses. And again, on a relative basis, they are capital intensive. And so we think they have a better owner now. And so we feel good about that decision.

不，我的意思是，在美世，我們將兩家管理業務（一家在美國，一家在英國）出售給了 Aptia。我們出售它們的原因是它們的成長相對較低且利潤率較低。而且，相對而言，它們是資本密集的。所以我們認為他們現在有了更好的主人。所以我們對這個決定感覺很好。

Thank you, Mike. Andrew, next question, please.

謝謝你，麥克。安德魯，請下一個問題。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Well, good morning. I guess I'd like to just go back to some comments you made in your prepared remarks, you mentioned Blue[i], I was wondering if you could provide some more specific data around that. It's a data analytics business, just provide some scope of how big it is inside the business because you called the data in the call.

嗯，早安。我想我想回到您在準備好的演講中發表的一些評論，您提到了 Blue[i]，我想知道您是否可以提供一些更具體的數據。這是一項數據分析業務，只需提供業務內部規模的一些範圍，因為您在通話中調用了數據。

Yeah, it's not a business. It's part of really how we advise our clients at Marsh. And so Blue[i] is kind of the brand if you will, for our suite of analytics. And Martin, maybe you could just share some insight on the range of types of tools that we use that help our clients think about how they manage and finance risk.

是的，這不是生意。這是達信為客戶提供建議的一部分。因此，如果您願意的話，Blue[i] 就是我們的分析套件的品牌。馬丁，也許您可以分享一些關於我們使用的各種工具類型的見解，這些工具可以幫助我們的客戶思考如何管理和融資風險。

Sure. So as you said, John, this is a suite of analytics tools that we use to help our clients across different product lines, assess what risks to retain, what risks they could transfer, the economic cost of that. We pay them across multiple lines to give them exposure and total cost of risk scenarios.

當然。正如您所說，約翰，這是一套分析工具，我們用它來幫助不同產品線的客戶評估要保留哪些風險、可以轉移哪些風險以及其經濟成本。我們透過多條線向他們支付費用，讓他們了解風險場景的風險和總成本。

We help them analyze claims and the analytics tools in there are able to help our clients who self-insure a lot of losses to identify which losses they need to get out early and how to settle those. But it's a range of real-time analytics built really. And it's one of the unique things about our business is that we have an enormous lake of data. And we think that's one of the big moats that we have to support our business and some of these analytics tools that we use, we call them generically Blue[i].

我們幫助他們分析索賠，其中的分析工具能夠幫助我們的客戶自行承保大量損失，以確定他們需要儘早擺脫哪些損失以及如何解決這些損失。但這是一系列真正建構的即時分析。我們業務的獨特之處之一是我們擁有龐大的資料湖。我們認為這是我們必須支持我們的業務和我們使用的一些分析工具的重要護城河之一，我們通常將它們稱為 Blue[i]。

We deploy on clients that actually don't even buy insurance. They tend to be some of our biggest clients in the US. So we'll continue to invest in that. And as we announced in the call last year, we added to that with supply chain capability. And so it's the way clients expect to be engaged, and that's the tool that we use.

我們針對實際上甚至不購買保險的客戶進行部署。他們往往是我們在美國最大的客戶之一。所以我們將繼續對此進行投資。正如我們在去年的電話會議中宣布的那樣，我們增加了供應鏈能力。這就是客戶期望的參與方式，也是我們使用的工具。

So we use these tools to help. And it's really mostly upfront, but to help them understand. Our clients, understand those risks, strategies to manage and mitigate those risks. We spend most of our time on these calls for good reasons talking about the financing of risk when me go to market, but it's an important part of our value proposition.

因此，我們使用這些工具來提供協助。這實際上主要是預先的，但為了幫助他們理解。我們的客戶了解這些風險以及管理和減輕這些風險的策略。當我進入市場時，我們大部分時間都花在這些電話會議上，討論風險融資，但這是我們價值主張的重要組成部分。

It's another example of where we can bring scale benefits to the market, given the unique dataset that we have and the range of proprietary analytics we use. And while it operates under a different brand, the same would be said for the way we approach our clients in the market at Guy Carpenter.

考慮到我們擁有的獨特數據集和我們使用的專有分析範圍，這是我們可以為市場帶來規模效益的另一個例子。雖然它以不同的品牌運營，但 Guy Carpenter 與市場上的客戶接觸的方式也是如此。

Do you have a follow-up. Greg?

你有後續嗎？格雷格？

I sure do. Thanks for the color on that. I'm just going to the operating cash flow and the free cash flow for the six months down a little bit, it looks like it changes in working capital. Wondering if you could just provide some additional color on the operating cash flow for the quarter and the year, six month basis.

我當然知道。謝謝你的顏色。我只是將六個月的營運現金流和自由現金流稍微下降，看起來營運資本改變了。想知道您是否可以提供有關季度和年度（六個月）營運現金流的一些額外資訊。

Sure, Greg. It's going to be volatile from quarter to quarter, but Mark, maybe you can --

當然，格雷格。每個季度都會波動，但是馬克，也許你可以——

Yeah, great. Thanks. We'll always caution against focusing too much on a quarter's results and that's certainly true when it comes to cash flow and free cash flow, they tend to be volatile not only quarter to quarter, but year to year because of timing of balance sheet items as you put.

很好。謝謝。我們始終會警告不要過多關注季度業績，在現金流量和自由現金流量方面確實如此，由於資產負債表項目的時間安排，它們不僅會按季度波動，而且會逐年波動。

So when you look at the six months, we are seeing a decline, of course, given the significant bonus payouts that we have in the first quarter. You have a little bit of a denominator, small denominator issue, and so you have to be cautious.

因此，當您查看這六個月時，我們當然會看到下降，因為我們在第一季支付了大量獎金。你有一點分母，小分母的問題，所以你必須小心。

But the two big factors just in the first six months are the higher comp payouts that we have in the first quarter. And then receivables are up because of the growth in the business. But we've got a, as you know, a long track record of double-digit growth in free cash flow that is stack up well against our growth in earnings. And that's what you'd expect in a capital-light business like ours.

但前六個月的兩個重要因素是我們第一季的薪資支出較高。由於業務的成長，應收帳款也隨之增加。但正如你所知，我們擁有自由現金流兩位數成長的長期記錄，這與我們的獲利成長相得益彰。這就是您在像我們這樣的輕資本企業中所期望的。

Thank you, Mark, and thanks, Greg, for the questions. Andrew, next question, please.

謝謝馬克，也謝謝格雷格提出的問題。安德魯，請下一個問題。

Yaron Kinar, Jefferies.

亞倫·基納爾，傑弗里斯。

Thank you, good morning. Just kind of follow-up on an earlier question on margins. So I think last quarter you had said that you expected the margin to accelerate, particularly in the second half of the year. Sounded like from the response this morning that maybe that's no longer the case, so just to be very clear.

謝謝你，早安。只是對之前有關利潤率問題的跟進。因此，我認為上個季度您曾表示預計利潤率會加速，特別是在下半年。從今天早上的回應來看，情況可能已經不再是這樣了，所以要說非常清楚。

And if we look at the 100 basis points, of course, the margin expansion in the first half of this year, would you expect that to be better in the second half or not? And I guess the second part of the question will be if there was a bit of a change, is it because the margin expansion in the second quarter was greater than you initially expected? Or are you expecting some softening relative to your guidance for the second half of the year?

如果我們看一下100個基點，當然，今年上半年的利潤率擴張，您是否認為下半年會更好？我想問題的第二部分是，是否有一些變化，是因為第二季的利潤擴張超出了您最初的預期嗎？或者您預計下半年的指導會有所放緩？

No, we expect margin expansion in the second half to be better than the first half of, sorry if we create any confusion earlier. But that's what we continue to expect. And maybe I can just share a little bit of color and just remind everybody, too, margins and outcome, right, this will be year 17 of 17th consecutive year of margin expansion. And so I feel terrific about that.

不，我們預計下半年的利潤率擴張將好於上半年，如果我們之前造成任何混亂，抱歉。但這就是我們繼續期待的。也許我可以分享一點顏色，並提醒大家，利潤率和結果，對吧，這將是利潤率連續第 17 年擴張的第 17 年。所以我對此感覺很棒。

The margin is an outcome of the way we run the business. We manage investments and costs within the revenue growth of the business. It's not going to happen in every business in every single quarter, but that's the way we approach in our business.

利潤是我們經營業務方式的結果。我們在業務收入成長的範圍內管理投資和成本。這不會在每個季度的每個業務中發生，但這就是我們處理業務的方式。

And we're going to continue to make attractive investments, support medium to long term growth. But we see opportunities. As I mentioned in the past, we've got workflow and automation efforts inside of Marsh, Mercer, and Guy Carpenter. And we're testing AI at scale. So that value creation is not a meaningful 2024, probably 2025 event, but as technologies emerge, we'll continue to challenge ourselves to get better. But again, we do expect second half margin expansion to be better than first half.

我們將繼續進行有吸引力的投資，支持中長期成長。但我們看到了機會。正如我過去提到的，我們在 Marsh、Mercer 和 Guy Carpenter 內部進行了工作流程和自動化工作。我們正在大規模測試人工智慧。因此，價值創造並不是 2024 年、可能是 2025 年有意義的事件，但隨著科技的出現，我們將繼續挑戰自己變得更好。但我們再次預期下半年的利潤率擴張將好於上半年。

Do you have a follow-up?

你有後續行動嗎？

Thanks so much for the color and clarification. I asked a two-part question, so I'll turn it back to you.

非常感謝您的顏色和澄清。我問了一個由兩部分組成的問題，所以我會把它轉回給你。

Got it. Thank you. Andrew, your next question, please.

知道了。謝謝。安德魯，請回答你的下一個問題。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶·希爾茲，KBW。

Great, thanks, and good morning all. I guess to start, can you talk about how you're advising both insurance and reinsurance clients to think about their exposure to casualty line following the overturning of the Chevron Doctrine?

太好了，謝謝，大家早安。我想首先，您能否談談您如何建議保險和再保險客戶考慮在雪佛龍主義被推翻後他們所面臨的傷亡險風險？

Well, I'm not sure. I see a direct line between that particular case and the overall environment. But what I would say to you is that, I mean, what we've talked about on this call historically -- or I shouldn't say historically, but over the course of the last couple of years, it's just troubling signs of loss cost inflation, particularly here in the United States and the amount of large or mega judgments and settlements is quite challenging. And so we spend a lot of time.

嗯，我不確定。我發現該特定案例與整體環境之間存在直接關聯。但我要對你們說的是，我的意思是，我們在這次電話會議上討論過歷史性的內容——或者我不應該說歷史性的，但在過去的幾年裡，這只是令人不安的損失跡象成本通貨膨脹，特別是在美國，大量或超大型的判決和和解相當具有挑戰性。所以我們花了很多時間。

And Martin talked briefly about the suite of analytics we use, its inside of that suite of analytics we help our clients think about a range of outcomes, what type of limits they should consider buying, how they might benchmark anonymously against others in their industry as an example, but those are all important inputs.

馬丁簡短地談到了我們使用的分析套件，在分析套件的內部，我們幫助我們的客戶思考一系列結果，他們應該考慮購買什麼類型的限制，他們如何與行業中的其他人進行匿名基準比較一個例子，但這些都是重要的輸入。

And ultimately, our clients make decisions and judgments, some have the ability to finance more risk or choose to finance more risk on their own and others will look to finance risk on the balance sheets of insurance companies or in certain cases to capital markets as well. So I hope that's helpful, Meyer.

最終，我們的客戶做出決策和判斷，有些客戶有能力為更多風險提供融資或選擇自行為更多風險提供融資，而另一些客戶將尋求在保險公司的資產負債表上或在某些情況下向資本市場提供風險融資。所以我希望這對你有幫助，邁耶。

It is. Thank you. It's a big picture. This is more of a small picture issue. But when we look at, let's say, the two year stacked organic growth in career that slowed dramatically from the first quarter, I guess you had 12 plus 1 is 13 and in this quarter, 6 plus 2 is 8. Is your outlook for career based on the items or the issue that you identified earlier, is that flowing compared to maybe what you thought at the end of the first quarter?

這是。謝謝。這是一幅大圖。這更多的是一個小圖片問題。但是，當我們看看，比方說，職業生涯的兩年疊加有機增長比第一季度大幅放緩時，我猜你的12 加1 是13，而在本季度，6 加2 是8。職業前景是根據您先前發現的專案或問題，與您在第一季末的想法相比，情況是否順利？

No, I don't think there's a real change from the first quarter. As Pat mentioned some of the dynamics, you know, less active labor markets from a turnover point of view, lower comp and ben. So we didn't have expectations of higher growth in that business during the course of 2024. And we haven't seen anything through six months that changes that outlook.

不，我認為與第一季相比沒有真正的變化。正如帕特所提到的一些動態，你知道，從營業額的角度來看，勞動力市場不太活躍，薪資和營業額較低。因此，我們預計該業務在 2024 年不會出現更高成長。

Fantastic. Thank you very much.

極好的。非常感謝。

Thank you. Andrew, time for maybe one more.

謝謝。安德魯，也許還有時間。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

Hey, thanks for fitting me in. John, I want to go back to something you said last quarter, which is that Marsh access at Mercer, it's E&S market solutions directly today. I'm curious how that's split between the percentage of premiums placed directly in E&S versus through a third-party wholesaler has trended over recent years and how you think that might trend going forward?

嘿，謝謝您讓我參與其中。我很好奇直接投入 E&S 的保費百分比與透過第三方批發商的保費百分比近年來的趨勢如何，您認為未來的趨勢如何？

Yeah. Again, just to be clear, we're not looking to build a third-party wholesale business. We want to bring the best solutions to our clients. The E&S markets moved quite a bit over the course of the last several years. That's really a reflection of the high-risk environment that I've talked about where insurers have, broadly speaking, more freedom to change rate to get off risk to change price or to change terms and conditions as well.

是的。再次強調，我們並不打算建立第三方批發業務。我們希望為客戶帶來最好的解決方案。 E&S 市場在過去幾年中發生了很大變化。這確實反映了我談到的高風險環境，從廣義上講，保險公司有更多的自由來改變費率，以規避改變價格或改變條款和條件的風險。

And so broadly speaking, we want to manage our clients' outcomes and experiences directly as possible and not outsource. You know what's sort of an important part of the value proposition. And it’s not to say wholesalers don't do a nice job for us, they do, and we'll continue to access them where it makes sense.

從廣義上講，我們希望盡可能直接管理客戶的成果和體驗，而不是外包。您知道價值主張的重要部分是什麼。這並不是說批發商沒有為我們做得很好，他們確實做得很好，我們將繼續在有意義的地方與他們接觸。

But majority of the wholesale premium we actually accessed directly today or E&S markets we did directly today, but there's been more growth in intermediated wholesale premium over the course of the last couple of years. And so we'll just try to get as much access to market as we can.

但我們今天實際上直接進入了大部分批發溢價，或者我​​們今天直接進入了 E&S 市場，但在過去幾年中，中間批發溢價有了更多增長。因此，我們將盡力獲得盡可能多的市場准入機會。

Do you have a follow-up, Robert?

羅伯特，你有後續嗎？

Yeah, thank you. That's great color. Yeah, second question was just on sort of the different economics Guy Carpenter gets from cat bonds versus traditional reinsurance placement. And if you can help us think about how much that record cap on quarter contributed to organic growth.

是的，謝謝。那顏色真棒。是的，第二個問題是關於蓋伊·卡彭特從貓債券與傳統再保險安置中獲得的不同經濟學。如果您能幫助我們思考創紀錄的季度上限對有機成長的貢獻有多大。

Yeah, the economics can be different, of course. And they are different from treaty to treaty as well. We work with our insurance company clients. And as we talked about when the market was particularly tight last year, while commission is a factor and growing price was a factor in many respects, really what we do with our large insurance company, where just building wholesale relationships effectively we work on what amounts to a fee.

是的，當然，經濟學可能會有所不同。而且各條約的規定也各不相同。我們與保險公司客戶合作。正如我們所談到的，去年市場特別緊張時，雖然佣金是一個因素，價格上漲也是許多方面的一個因素，但實際上我們與大型保險公司所做的事情，只是有效地建立批發關係，我們的工作量是多少需付費。

Go ahead, Andrew.

繼續吧，安德魯。

I would now like to turn the call back over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh & McLennan for any closing remarks.

現在我想將電話轉回威達信總裁兼執行長約翰·道爾 (John Doyle)，讓其發表結束語。

Thanks, Andrew, and thank you all for joining us on the call this morning. In closing, I want to thank our colleagues for their hard work and dedication. I also want to thank our clients for their continued support. Thank you all very much, and we look forward to speaking to you again next quarter.

謝謝安德魯，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。最後，我要感謝我們的同事們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我還要感謝我們的客戶一直以來的支持。非常感謝大家，我們期待下個季度再次與你們交談。