威達信集團 (MMC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Marsh McLennan earnings conference call.

歡迎參加達信麥克倫南 (Marsh McLennan) 財報電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音。

Third-quarter 2024 financial results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning.

今天早上早些時候發布了 2024 年第三季財務業績和補充資訊。

They are available on the company's website at marshmclennan.com.

您可以在公司網站 marshmclenan.com 上取得這些資訊。

Please note that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements.

請注意，今天發表的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述。

Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements.

前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，多種因素可能導致實際結果與此類陳述預期的結果有重大差異。

For more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter into our most recent SEC filings, including our most recent Form 10-K, all of which are available on the Marsh McLennan website.

有關這些因素的更詳細討論，請參閱我們最新向 SEC 提交的本季收益報告，包括我們最新的 10-K 表格，所有這些均可在 Marsh McLennan 網站上取得。

During the call today, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures.

在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

For reconciliation of those measures to the most recently comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release.

如需將這些指標與最近可比較的公認會計原則指標進行調整，請參閱今天的收益報告中的時間表。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I'll now turn the call over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh & McLennan.

我現在會把電話轉給 Marsh & McLennan 總裁兼執行長 John Doyle。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter results reported earlier today.

早安，感謝您加入我們討論今天早些時候報告的第三季業績。

I'm John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh McLennan.

我是約翰‧道爾 (John Doyle)，達信集團 (Marsh McLennan) 總裁兼執行長。

On the call with me is Mark McGivney, our CFO; and the CEOs of our businesses: Martin South of Marsh, Dean Closure of Guy Carpenter; Pat Tomlinson of Mercer; and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman.

與我通話的是我們的財務長 Mark McGivney；以及我們企業的執行長：Marsh 的 Martin South、Guy Carpenter 的 Dean Closure；美世 (Mercer) 的帕特湯姆林森 (Pat Tomlinson)；和奧緯諮詢公司的尼克·斯圖德。

Also, with us this morning for her last quarter as Head of Investor Relations is Sarah DeWitt.

此外，莎拉·德威特 (Sarah DeWitt) 今天早上與我們一起度過了她擔任投資者關係主管的最後一個季度。

We'd like to congratulate Sarah on her new role as Chief Financial Officer of Marsh.

我們謹祝賀莎拉就任達信財務長。

Before I get into our results, I'd like to take a moment to comment on Hurricane Helen and Milton, which have devastated communities in Florida and the Southeast United States.

在介紹我們的結果之前，我想花點時間評論颶風海倫和米爾頓，它們摧毀了佛羅裡達州和美國東南部的社區。

These events are first and foremost, the human tragedy, and our thoughts are with all of those impacted by the storms.

這些事件首先是人類悲劇，我們與所有受到風暴影響的人同在。

Our primary concern has been the well-being of our colleagues and their families as well as our clients and we are actively working to assist in their recovery.

我們最關心的是同事及其家人以及客戶的福祉，我們正在積極努力協助他們康復。

While the ultimate insured loss won't be known for some time, the impact of these storms will be significant.

雖然最終的保險損失在一段時間內還不得而知，但這些風暴的影響將是巨大的。

And given their wide path of destruction and close timing, they will put enormous pressure on resources available for recovery.

鑑於其破壞路徑廣泛且時間緊迫，它們將對可用於恢復的資源造成巨大壓力。

Both hurricanes also highlight the meaningful disparity between economic loss and insured loss.

這兩場颶風也凸顯了經濟損失和保險損失之間的巨大差異。

According to some estimates, Helene may have the largest multiple of economic to insured loss of any US storm.

根據一些估計，海倫可能是美國風暴中經濟損失與保險損失的最大倍數。

This protection gap imposes a meaningful burden on the economy, makes near-term recovery more challenging and undercuts resilience.

這種保護缺口給經濟帶來了沉重負擔，使短期復甦更具挑戰性，並削弱了抵禦能力。

In addition, rising frequency and severity of extreme weather events, higher property values, and increased development in cat-prone areas are driving the need for greater protection.

此外，極端天氣事件的頻率和嚴重程度不斷上升、財產價值不斷上升以及貓多發地區的開發不斷增加，都推動了對加強保護的需求。

We and the insurance industry help communities, businesses, and governments build resilience to manage these perils.

我們和保險業幫助社區、企業和政府增強抵禦這些風險的能力。

But as these storms highlight, there is opportunity to do more through risk mitigation, event preparedness and alternative solutions such as community-based Parametric products.

但正如這些風暴所凸顯的那樣，我們有機會透過風險緩解、事件準備和替代解決方案（例如基於社區的參數化產品）來做更多事情。

Turning to our results.

轉向我們的結果。

The third quarter marked another milestone for Marsh McLennan, we continue to perform well across our business, and we were thrilled to announce the acquisition of McGriff Insurance Services.

第三季標誌著 Marsh McLennan 的另一個里程碑，我們的業務繼續表現良好，我們很高興宣布收購 McGriff Insurance Services。

In the quarter, we generated 5% underlying revenue growth following 10% in the third quarter of last year, reflecting solid execution in RIS and Consulting.

本季度，我們的基本收入成長了 5%，去年第三季度成長了 10%，反映出 RIS 和諮詢業務的強勁執行力。

We grew adjusted operating income 12%.

調整後營業收入成長了 12%。

Our adjusted operating margin expanded 110 basis points, adjusted EPS grew 4% or 11%, excluding a discrete tax benefit in the third quarter of last year, and we completed $300 million of share repurchases in the quarter.

調整後的營業利潤率擴大了110 個基點，調整後的每股盈餘成長了4% 或11%（不包括去年第三季的離散稅收優惠），並且我們在本季完成了3 億美元的股票回購。

Turning to McGriff.

轉向麥格里夫。

It is a leading provider of insurance broking and risk management services in the US with approximately $1.3 billion in revenue.

它是美國領先的保險經紀和風險管理服務提供商，收入約為 13 億美元。

I have long admired McGriff.

我長期以來一直欽佩麥克格里夫。

They have excellent leadership, talented colleagues and a track record of strong growth.

他們擁有出色的領導、才華橫溢的同事和強勁增長的記錄。

Their deep specialty and industry capabilities will strengthen the value proposition and expand the reach of Marsh McLennan agency in the vast and growing middle market segment.

他們深厚的專業知識和行業能力將加強價值主張，並擴大達信麥克倫南機構在廣闊且不斷增長的中間市場領域的影響力。

McGriff focus, culture of collaboration and commitment to excellence and integrity mirror our own.

McGriff 的專注、協作文化以及對卓越和誠信的承諾反映了我們自己的理念。

Together, McGriff and MMA will create new opportunities for colleagues to be their best and helping them deliver even greater value to clients.

McGriff 和 MMA 將共同為同事創造新的機會，讓他們發揮最佳水平，並幫助他們為客戶創造更大的價值。

The $7.75 billion transaction will be funded by cash on hand and debt financing.

這筆 77.5 億美元的交易將透過庫存現金和債務融資提供資金。

We expect to close by year-end, subject to regulatory approval.

我們預計在年底前完成，但需獲得監管部門的批准。

We would also expect the transaction to be modestly accretive to adjusted EPS, excluding amortization in year one and become more meaningfully accretive in year two and beyond.

我們也預計，該交易將適度增加調整後每股收益（不包括第一年的攤銷），並在第二年及以後變得更有意義。

We have a terrific track record of acquiring and integrating businesses, and we are excited to welcome McGriff's over 3,500 colleagues to the company when the deal closes.

我們在收購和整合業務方面擁有出色的記錄，交易完成後我們很高興歡迎 McGriff 的 3,500 多名同事加入公司。

McGriff has added to what is already an active year for M&A across our business.

麥格里夫為我們業務的併購活動增添了新的一年。

We are on track record for the largest M&A year in Marsh McLennan's history, with nearly $10 billion of capital committed to acquisitions year-to-date, including McGriff, Vanguard's US OCIO business, Cardano, Horton and FBBI.

我們創下了 Marsh McLennan 史上規模最大的併購年，今年迄今已投入近 100 億美元的資本用於收購，其中包括 McGriff、Vanguard 的美國 OCIO 業務、Cardano、Horton 和 FBBI。

These acquisitions highlight our strategy to deploy capital to faster-growing segments of our business.

這些收購凸顯了我們將資本部署到成長更快的業務領域的策略。

As we have said before, we consistently focus on delivering in the near term while investing for sustained growth over the long term.

正如我們之前所說，我們始終專注於短期交付，同時投資長期持續成長。

Shifting to the macro environment.

轉向宏觀環境。

The overall backdrop remains supportive of growth despite what continues to be a complex and volatile landscape.

儘管情況仍然複雜多變，但整體背景仍然支持成長。

Central banks have begun a cycle of easing and consensus views of the likelihood of near-term recession for most major economies are well below where they were coming into the year.

各國央行已開始一輪寬鬆政策，對大多數主要經濟體近期衰退可能性的共識看法遠低於今年的預期。

We continue to see economic growth across most of our major markets.

我們繼續看到大多數主要市場的經濟成長。

Inflation remains elevated, but declining.

通貨膨脹率仍然較高，但正在下降。

Labor markets remain healthy and the cost of risk in health care continue to rise.

勞動市場保持健康，醫療保健風險成本持續上升。

That said, uncertainty remains with rising geopolitical tensions and continuing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

儘管如此，地緣政治緊張局勢加劇以及烏克蘭和中東衝突持續不斷，不確定性仍然存在。

Clients across the world continue to assess the implications of technology advances and AI, the ever-persistent threat from cyber attacks, supply chain risk, and the impact of increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events on their businesses.

世界各地的客戶不斷評估技術進步和人工智慧的影響、網路攻擊持續存在的威脅、供應鏈風險，以及極端天氣事件日益頻繁和嚴重的情況對其業務的影響。

Our talent, expertise and solutions help clients manage challenges and accelerate opportunities to thrive.

我們的人才、專業知識和解決方案可幫助客戶應對挑戰並加速發展機會。

So we remain positive in our outlook for growth.

因此，我們對成長前景保持樂觀。

We are well positioned and have a track record of performing across economic cycles due to the enduring value we bring to clients and the resilience of our business.

由於我們為客戶帶來的持久價值和業務的彈性，我們處於有利地位，並在跨經濟週期的表現方面擁有良好的記錄。

Turning to insurance and reinsurance market conditions.

轉向保險和再保險市場狀況。

The Marsh Global Insurance Market Index was down 1% overall in the third quarter versus flat in the second quarter.

達信全球保險市場指數第三季整體下跌 1%，而第二季則持平。

Rates in the US and Latin America were up low single digits, Europe was flat.

美國和拉丁美洲的利率上漲了低個位數，歐洲則持平。

And in the UK, Asia and Pacific, rates were down mid-single digits.

在英國、亞洲和太平洋地區，利率下降了中個位數。

Global property rates were down 2% versus flat in the second quarter.

第二季全球房地產價格與持平相比下降了 2%。

However, global casualty rates increased 6% with US excess casualty up approximately 20% in the quarter.

然而，本季全球傷亡率增加了 6%，其中美國超額傷亡人數增加了約 20%。

Workers' compensation decreased low single digits.

工人報酬下降了低個位數。

Global financial and professional liability rates were down 7%, while cyber decreased 6%.

全球金融和專業責任率下降 7%，網路責任率下降 6%。

In reinsurance, demand continued to rise, and capacity remained adequate in the quarter.

再保險方面，需求持續成長，本季運力依然充足。

While it is too early to know the ultimate insured losses from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, we expect there to be an impact on 2025 property insurance and reinsurance pricing.

雖然現在要了解颶風海倫和米爾頓的最終保險損失還為時過早，但我們預計這將對 2025 年財產保險和再保險定價產生影響。

Cat bonds, which posted record volume in the first half, remain likely to have elevated issuance activity through year-end driven by a heavy maturity schedule.

巨災債券在上半年創下了創紀錄的交易量，由於到期日安排繁重，到年底發行活動仍有可能增加。

And capacity for casualty programs is expected to be adequate despite concerns over the pace of loss cost inflation.

儘管人們對損失成本通膨的速度感到擔憂，但預計傷亡計畫的能力仍將充足。

As always, we are helping clients navigate these dynamic market conditions.

一如既往，我們正在幫助客戶應對這些動態的市場狀況。

Now let me turn to our third quarter financial performance.

現在讓我談談我們第三季的財務表現。

We generated adjusted EPS of $1.63, which is up 4% from a year ago or 11%, excluding a $0.10 discrete tax benefit in the third quarter of last year.

我們的調整後每股收益為 1.63 美元，比去年同期增長 4%，即 11%，不包括去年第三季 0.10 美元的離散稅收優惠。

On an underlying basis, revenue grew 5%.

基本收入成長了 5%。

Underlying revenue grew 6% in RIS and 4% in Consulting.

RIS 的基礎收入成長了 6%，諮詢業務的基礎收入成長了 4%。

Marsh was up 7%, Guy Carpenter 7%; Mercer 5%; and Oliver Wyman grew 1%.

Marsh 上漲 7%，Guy Carpenter 上漲 7%；美世 5%；奧緯諮詢 (Oliver Wyman) 成長了 1%。

Overall, in the third quarter, adjusted operating income grew 12%.

整體而言，第三季調整後營業收入成長了12%。

And our adjusted operating margin expanded 110 basis points year-over-year.

調整後的營業利益率較去年同期擴大了 110 個基點。

For the nine months, consolidated revenue grew 7% on an underlying basis.

過去 9 個月，綜合收入基本上成長了 7%。

Adjusted operating income grew 12% and our adjusted operating margin expanded 110 basis points.

調整後營業收入成長 12%，調整後營業利益率擴大 110 個基點。

Adjusted EPS was $6.93, up 10% from a year ago.

調整後每股收益為 6.93 美元，比去年同期成長 10%。

Turning to our outlook.

轉向我們的展望。

We are well positioned for another great year in 2024.

我們已做好充分準備，迎接 2024 年又一個偉大的一年。

We continue to expect mid-single-digit or better underlying revenue growth, another year of margin expansion and strong growth in adjusted EPS.

我們繼續預期基礎收入將實現中個位數或更好的成長，利潤率又將擴大一年，調整後每股盈餘將強勁成長。

Our outlook assumes current macro conditions persist.

我們的前景假設當前的宏觀狀況持續存在。

However, the environment remains uncertain, and the economic backdrop could be materially different than our assumptions.

然而，環境仍然不確定，經濟背景可能與我們的假設有很大不同。

Overall, I'm pleased with our third quarter performance, which demonstrates execution of our strategy and continued momentum across our business.

總的來說，我對我們第三季的業績感到滿意，這表明了我們策略的執行和整個業務的持續發展勢頭。

I'm grateful to our colleagues for their focus and determination and the value they deliver to our clients, shareholders and communities.

我感謝我們的同事的專注和決心，以及他們為我們的客戶、股東和社區帶來的價值。

With that, let me turn it over to Mark for a more detailed review of our results.

接下來，讓我把它交給馬克，讓他對我們的結果進行更詳細的審查。

Thank you, John, and good morning.

謝謝你，約翰，早安。

Our momentum continued in the third quarter with solid underlying revenue growth, significant margin expansion and 4% growth in adjusted EPS or 11%, excluding a large discrete tax benefit last year.

第三季我們繼續保持強勁的成長勢頭，基礎收入成長強勁，利潤率顯著擴張，調整後每股收益成長 4% 或 11%（不包括去年大幅的離散稅收優惠）。

Our consolidated revenue increased 6% to $5.7 billion, with underlying growth of 5%.

我們的綜合收入成長了 6%，達到 57 億美元，基本成長率為 5%。

Operating income was $1.1 billion and adjusted operating income was $1.2 billion, up 12%.

營業收入為 11 億美元，調整後營業收入為 12 億美元，成長 12%。

Our adjusted operating margin increased 110 basis points to 22.4%.

調整後的營業利益率增加了 110 個基點，達到 22.4%。

GAAP EPS was $1.51, adjusted EPS was $1.63. For the first nine months, underlying revenue growth was 7%.

GAAP 每股收益為 1.51 美元，調整後每股收益為 1.63 美元。前 9 個月，基本收入成長率為 7%。

Adjusted operating income grew 12% to $4.9 billion.

調整後營業收入成長 12%，達到 49 億美元。

Our adjusted operating margin increased 110 basis points to 28% and adjusted EPS increased 10% to $6.93. Looking at Risk and Insurance Services.

調整後營業利益率成長 110 個基點，達到 28%，調整後每股盈餘成長 10%，達到 6.93 美元。著眼於風險和保險服務。

Third quarter revenue was $3.5 billion, up 8% from a year ago or 6% on an underlying basis.

第三季營收為 35 億美元，比去年同期成長 8%，基本成長 6%。

This result marks the 15th consecutive quarter of 6% or higher underlying growth in RIS, continues the best stretch of growth in two decades.

這一結果標誌著 RIS 連續第 15 個季度實現 6% 或更高的基本成長，延續了二十年來最好的成長勢頭。

Fiduciary income was $138 million in the quarter.

該季度的信託收入為 1.38 億美元。

In looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect to see this amount decline by approximately $30 million, reflecting recent rate cuts and a seasonal drop in fiduciary assets.

展望第四季度，我們預計這一金額將下降約 3000 萬美元，反映了最近的降息和信託資產的季節性下降。

Operating income in RIS increased 15% to $733 million.

RIS 的營業收入成長了 15%，達到 7.33 億美元。

Adjusted operating income increased 16% to $775 million, and our adjusted operating margin expanded 130 basis points to 24.7%.

調整後營業收入成長 16%，達到 7.75 億美元，調整後營業利益率擴大 130 個基點，達到 24.7%。

For the first nine months, revenue in RIS was $11.7 billion, with underlying growth of 8%.

前 9 個月，RIS 的收入為 117 億美元，基本成長率為 8%。

Adjusted operating income increased 12% to $3.7 billion, the margin increased 100 basis points to 33.6%.

調整後營業收入成長 12%，達到 37 億美元，利潤率成長 100 個基點，達到 33.6%。

At Marsh, revenue in the quarter was $2.9 billion, up 9% from a year ago or 7% on an underlying basis.

達信集團本季營收為 29 億美元，比去年同期成長 9%，基本成長 7%。

This comes on top of 8% growth in the third quarter of last year.

去年第三季成長 8%。

Growth in the third quarter was broad-based and reflected solid retention and new business growth.

第三季的成長基礎廣泛，反映出穩健的保留率和新業務的成長。

In US and Canada, underlying growth was 6% for the quarter, led by strong growth in MMA and in Vector, our MGA business.

在美國和加拿大，本季基本成長率為 6%，這主要得益於 MMA 和我們的 MGA 業務 Vector 的強勁成長。

In international, underlying growth was 7% and comes on top of 10% in the third quarter of last year.

在國際市場，基本成長率為 7%，高於去年第三季的 10%。

Latin America was up 8%, EMEA was up 7% and Asia Pacific was up 5%.

拉丁美洲成長 8%，歐洲、中東和非洲成長 7%，亞太地區成長 5%。

The first nine months of the year, Marsh's revenue was $9.2 billion, with underlying growth of 7%.

今年前九個月，達信的營收為 92 億美元，基本成長率為 7%。

US and Canada grew 7% and international was up 7%.

美國和加拿大成長了 7%，國際成長了 7%。

Guy Carpenter's revenue was $381 million in the quarter, up 6% or 7% on an underlying basis, driven by strong growth in international, including Global Specialties.

Guy Carpenter 本季的營收為 3.81 億美元，基本上成長了 6% 或 7%，這得益於包括 Global Specialties 在內的國際業務的強勁成長。

For the first nine months of the year, Guy Carpenter generated $2.2 billion of revenue and 8% underlying growth.

今年前 9 個月，Guy Carpenter 創造了 22 億美元的收入，基本成長率為 8%。

In the Consulting segment, third quarter revenue was $2.3 billion, up 3% from a year ago or 4% on an underlying basis.

在諮詢領域，第三季營收為 23 億美元，比去年同期成長 3%，基本成長 4%。

Consulting operating income was $462 million, and adjusted operating income was $478 million, up 7%.

諮詢營業收入為 4.62 億美元，調整後營業收入為 4.78 億美元，成長 7%。

Our adjusted operating margin in Consulting was 21.7% in the third quarter, an increase of 90 basis points.

第三季顧問業調整後營業利益率為 21.7%，成長了 90 個基點。

The first nine months, consulting revenue was $6.7 billion with underlying growth of 5%.

前 9 個月，諮詢收入為 67 億美元，基本成長 5%。

Adjusted operating income increased 7% to $1.3 billion, and our adjusted operating margin increased 60 basis points to 20.7%.

調整後營業收入成長 7%，達到 13 億美元，調整後營業利益率成長 60 個基點，達到 20.7%。

Mercer's revenue was $1.5 billion in the quarter, up 5% on an underlying basis.

美世公司本季的營收為 15 億美元，年增 5%。

This was Mercer's 14th consecutive quarter of 5% or higher underlying growth.

這是美世連續第 14 個季度實現 5% 或更高的基本成長。

Health underlying growth remained strong at 8% and reflected growth across all regions.

健康基礎成長仍然強勁，達到 8%，反映了所有地區的成長。

Korea grew 5%, where we saw strong growth in rewards and talent strategy.

韓國成長了 5%，我們看到獎勵和人才策略的強勁成長。

Wealth grew 4%, driven by continued demand in defined benefits consulting and growth in investment management.

由於固定福利諮詢的持續需求和投資管理的成長，財富增加了 4%。

Our assets under management at the end of the third quarter rose to $548 billion, up significantly from the third quarter of last year and up 11% sequentially.

截至第三季末，我們管理的資產增至 5,480 億美元，較去年第三季大幅成長，季增 11%。

Year-over-year growth was driven by the impact of capital markets, our transaction with Vanguard and positive net flows.

年比成長是由資本市場、我們與先鋒集團的交易以及正淨流量的影響所推動的。

For the first nine months of the year, revenue at Mercer was $4.3 billion with 6% underlying growth.

今年前 9 個月，美世的營收為 43 億美元，基本成長率為 6%。

Oliver Wyman's revenue in the quarter was $810 million, up 1% on an underlying basis.

奧緯諮詢本季的營收為 8.1 億美元，基本上成長 1%。

This reflects a tough comparison to 12% growth in the third quarter of last year and softness in certain geographies.

這反映了與去年第三季 12% 的成長相比的嚴峻情況以及某些地區的疲軟狀況。

We currently see this trend extending into the fourth quarter.

我們目前看到這種趨勢延續到第四季。

For the first nine months of the year, revenue at Oliver Wyman was $2.4 billion, an increase of 5% on an underlying basis.

今年前 9 個月，奧緯諮詢的收入為 24 億美元，基本上成長了 5%。

Foreign exchange had very little impact on earnings in the third quarter.

外匯對第三季獲利的影響很小。

Assuming exchange rates remain at current levels, we also expect minimal FX impact in the fourth quarter.

假設匯率維持在目前水平，我們也預期第四季的外匯影響最小。

Total noteworthy items in the quarter were $78 million.

本季值得注意的項目總額為 7,800 萬美元。

These included $54 million of restructuring costs, mostly related to the program we began in the fourth quarter of 2022, as well as some transaction-related charges.

其中包括 5,400 萬美元的重組成本，主要與我們在 2022 年第四季啟動的計劃有關，以及一些與交易相關的費用。

Our other net benefit credit was $68 million in the quarter.

本季我們的其他淨收益信貸為 6,800 萬美元。

For the full year 2024, we expect our other net benefit credit will be about $270 million.

對於 2024 年全年，我們預計其他淨收益信貸將約為 2.7 億美元。

Interest expense in the third quarter was $154 million, up from $145 million in the third quarter of 2023, reflecting higher levels of debt and higher interest rates.

第三季的利息支出為 1.54 億美元，高於 2023 年第三季的 1.45 億美元，反映出較高的債務水準和較高的利率。

Based on our current forecast, we expect approximately $151 million of interest expense in the fourth quarter, excluding any amounts related to the McGriff transaction.

根據我們目前的預測，我們預計第四季度的利息支出約為 1.51 億美元，不包括與 McGriff 交易相關的任何金額。

Our adjusted effective tax rate in the third quarter was 26.7% compared with 20.5% in the third quarter of last year.

我們第三季調整後的有效稅率為26.7%，去年第三季為20.5%。

Our tax rate last year included the release of a valuation allowance on foreign deferred tax assets.

我們去年的稅率包括釋放外國遞延稅資產的估價津貼。

Excluding discrete items, our adjusted effective tax rate was approximately 26.5%.

不包括離散項目，我們調整後的有效稅率約為 26.5%。

When we give forward guidance around our tax rate, we do not project discrete items, which can be positive or negative.

當我們就稅率提供前瞻性指引時，我們不會預測離散項目，這些項目可能是正數，也可能是負數。

Based on the current environment, we expect an adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 26.5% for 2024.

基於目前環境，我們預計2024年調整後有效稅率約為26.5%。

Turning to our McGriff transaction.

轉向我們的麥克格里夫交易。

McGriff is a terrific company with excellent leadership, a culture similar to MMAs, a diversified business mix, presence in faster growing US markets, and a strong track record of performance.

McGriff 是一家出色的公司，擁有卓越的領導力、類似於 MMA 的文化、多元化的業務組合、在成長更快的美國市場的影響力以及良好的業績記錄。

We will be paying $7.75 billion in cash consideration funded by a combination of cash on hand and new debt, and we expect to close by year-end, subject to regulatory approval.

我們將支付 77.5 億美元的現金對價，由手頭現金和新債務相結合，預計在年底前完成，但須經監管部門批准。

As part of the transaction, we expect to assume a deferred tax asset valued at approximately $500 million.

作為交易的一部分，我們預計將承擔價值約 5 億美元的遞延稅資產。

As we've noted in the past, we maintain considerable balance sheet flexibility to position us for this type of opportunity.

正如我們過去所指出的，我們保持著相當大的資產負債表彈性，以使我們能夠抓住此類機會。

We've secured a committed bridge loan facility for the full amount of the purchase price and currently plan to replace these commitments with permanent financing in the fourth quarter as we get closer to closing.

我們已經獲得了全額購買價格的承諾過橋貸款融資，目前計劃在第四季度接近交割時用永久融資取代這些承諾。

Based on our outlook today, we expect to raise $7.25 billion in new debt to fund the transaction.

根據我們今天的展望，我們預計將籌集 72.5 億美元的新債務來為交易提供資金。

We value our high-quality ratings, and we were pleased that all three rating agencies recently affirmed our current ratings with no changes in outlook.

我們重視我們的高品質評級，我們很高興所有三個評級機構最近都確認了我們目前的評級，且前景沒有變化。

The financial and capital management plan contemplated in the transaction is not only consistent with maintaining our current ratings, but we also expect to have meaningful flexibility for capital deployment next year.

交易中設想的財務和資本管理計劃不僅與維持我們目前的評級一致，而且我們還期望明年的資本部署具有有意義的靈活性。

Although initially, our leverage ratios will increase, the substantial cash flow we expect to generate as well as increased debt capacity through earnings growth will enable us to bring our leverage ratios back in line with levels necessary to maintain a strong ratings profile.

儘管最初我們的槓桿率將會上升，但我們預計將產生的大量現金流以及透過獲利成長而增加的債務能力將使我們能夠將槓桿率恢復到維持強勁評級狀況所需的水平。

As a result, while we intend to pause share repurchases in the fourth quarter, as we think about capital management into next year, we expect we will maintain our balanced approach that includes increasing our dividend and reducing our share count each year as well as continuing to fund high-quality acquisitions.

因此，雖然我們打算在第四季度暫停股票回購，但當我們考慮明年的資本管理時，我們預計我們將保持平衡的做法，包括每年增加股息和減少股票數量以及繼續為高品質收購提供資金。

We will obviously have more guidance around our outlook for capital deployment in 2025 on our fourth quarter earnings call early next year.

顯然，我們將在明年初的第四季財報電話會議上就 2025 年資本部署前景提供更多指引。

As John noted, we expect the transaction will be modestly accretive to adjusted EPS, excluding amortization in year one, becoming more meaningfully accretive in year two and beyond.

正如約翰所指出的那樣，我們預計該交易將適度增加調整後每股收益（不包括第一年的攤銷），並在第二年及以後變得更有意義。

This transaction is a great reflection of several elements of our capital management strategy, maintaining flexibility to take advantage of opportunities, a bias to reinvest capital for growth, and delivering in the near term while challenging ourselves to invest to sustain growth into the future.

這項交易很好地反映了我們資本管理策略的幾個要素，即保持利用機會的靈活性、對資本再投資以促進成長的傾向，以及在短期內實現目標，同時挑戰自己進行投資以維持未來的增長。

Turning to capital management and our balance sheet.

轉向資本管理和我們的資產負債表。

We ended the quarter with total debt of $12.8 billion.

本季結束時，我們的債務總額為 128 億美元。

Our next scheduled debt maturity is in the first quarter of 2025 with $500 million of senior notes mature.

我們的下一個預定債務到期日是 2025 年第一季度，屆時將有 5 億美元的優先票據到期。

We currently expect to deploy approximately $4.2 billion of capital in 2024 across dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases, excluding the McGriff transaction.

目前，我們預計 2024 年將在股息、收購和股票回購方面部署約 42 億美元的資本（不包括 McGriff 交易）。

Our cash position at the end of the third quarter was $1.8 billion.

第三季末我們的現金部位為 18 億美元。

Uses of cash in the quarter totaled $1.1 billion, and included $404 million for dividends, $435 million for acquisitions and $300 million for share repurchases.

本季現金使用總額為 11 億美元，其中包括 4.04 億美元用於股利、4.35 億美元用於收購以及 3 億美元用於股票回購。

For the first nine months, uses of cash totaled $3.3 billion included $1.1 billion for dividends, $1.3 billion for acquisitions, and $900 million for share repurchases.

前九個月，現金使用總額為 33 億美元，其中 11 億美元用於股息，13 億美元用於收購，9 億美元用於股票回購。

I want to spend a minute on our plans to change how we report adjusted EPS.

我想花一點時間討論一下我們改變報告調整後每股盈餘的計畫。

Starting next year, we will exclude the impact of acquisition-related amortization from adjusted EPS.

從明年開始，我們將在調整後每股盈餘中排除收購相關攤銷的影響。

We will also exclude the other net benefit credit, another noncash item.

我們也將排除其他淨福利信貸，即另一個非現金項目。

These changes will improve the comparability of our results and give investors a better sense of our core earnings power.

這些變化將提高我們業績的可比性，並使投資者更了解我們的核心獲利能力。

It will also conform our adjusted EPS reporting with how we report adjusted operating margins.

它還將使我們調整後的每股盈餘報告與我們報告調整後的營業利潤率的方式保持一致。

While there continues to be uncertainty in the outlook for the global economy, we feel good about the momentum in our business and the current environment remains supportive of growth.

儘管全球經濟前景仍然存在不確定性，但我們對業務勢頭感覺良好，並且當前環境仍然支持成長。

Overall, we are well positioned for another great year in 2024.

總體而言，我們已做好充分準備，迎接 2024 年又一個偉大的一年。

Based on our outlook today, for the full year, we continue to expect mid-single-digit or better underlying growth, margin expansion and strong growth in adjusted EPS.

根據我們今天的展望，我們繼續預計全年將實現中個位數或更好的基本成長、利潤率擴張和調整後每股盈餘的強勁成長。

With that, I'm happy to turn it back to John.

有了這個，我很高興將其轉回給約翰。

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

Andrew, we're ready to begin Q&A.

安德魯，我們準備開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）Elyse Greenspan，富國銀行。

Hi, thanks.

你好，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

My first question is on the McGriff deal.

我的第一個問題是關於麥克格里夫的交易。

When you guys say, right, that you expect it accretive to earnings less intangibles -- what are your -- can you give us some color on what your assumptions are for revenue growth relative to the $1.3 billion that you're taking on?

當你們說，是的，你們預計它會增加無形資產的收入——你們的無形資產是什麼——你們能給我們一些關於相對於你們所承擔的 13 億美元收入增長的假設嗎？

And then also, what are you assuming for margin?

另外，您對保證金的假設是多少？

I guess my question is for the year one guide, but any guide you kind of want to give us for year two and beyond would be helpful as well.

我想我的問題是針對第一年的指南，但是您想為我們提供的第二年及以後的任何指南也會有所幫助。

Sure, Elyse, and thank you for the question.

當然，Elyse，謝謝你的提問。

I just want to reiterate how excited we are to bring -- welcome McGriff into the family, obviously, subject to regulatory approval.

我只是想重申，我們非常高興歡迎 McGriff 加入這個大家庭，顯然，這需要監管部門的批准。

The have a really strong culture.

他們有很強的文化。

It's a competitive group.

這是一個有競爭力的團體。

They're so client focused.

他們非常以客戶為中心。

I spoke to the talent in my prepared remarks, and they'll extend our reach into -- it's a vast and fragmented middle market, they have excellent specialty capabilities, and industry focus and working together with MMA, we know they can drive better outcomes for clients, and we can create new opportunities for their colleagues as well.

我在準備好的演講中與人才進行了交談，他們將把我們的觸角延伸到——這是一個廣闊而分散的中間市場，他們擁有出色的專業能力和行業焦點，並與MMA 合作，我們知道他們可以帶來更好的成果為客戶，我們也可以為他們的同事創造新的機會。

So we're excited about all that.

所以我們對這一切感到興奮。

We've shared the details that we're going to share about the business-like other MMA transactions, we don't disclose margins when we acquire them or for that matter, how they're growing, but we're excited about it.

我們已經分享了我們將要分享的有關該業務的詳細信息，就像其他 MMA 交易一樣，我們在收購它們時不會披露利潤率，也不會披露它們的增長方式，但我們對此感到興奮。

As I said, it will be modestly accretive in year one and more so after that, and we expect to earn a good return on the investment over time.

正如我所說，它將在第一年以及之後的幾年中適度增值，我們預計隨著時間的推移，我們將獲得良好的投資回報。

So there are synergies, of course, but we're conservative in our modeling, and we're very excited about what the combination can mean.

因此，當然存在協同效應，但我們的模型比較保守，我們對這種組合的意義感到非常興奮。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then my follow-up on US and Canada, growth was 6% again this quarter.

然後我對美國和加拿大進行了跟踪，本季度增長率再次達到 6%。

Can you just give us a sense of some of the dynamics that you're seeing within that market?

您能否讓我們了解一下您在該市場中看到的一些動態？

And then relative to like the IPO and SPAC in that business, right, that's been a headwind for a couple of years, have you seen any improvement there in the quarter?

然後，相對於該業務的 IPO 和 SPAC，對吧，這幾年來一直是逆風，您在本季度看到了任何改善嗎？

Sure.

當然。

I'd start, at least, just with -- overall, I'm very pleased with our underlying growth in the quarter.

至少，我首先要說的是——總的來說，我對我們本季的基本成長感到非常滿意。

I thought we had a terrific quarter.

我認為我們度過了一個很棒的季度。

Marsh, Guy Carpenter and Mercer all had terrific growth, and it was really widespread.

馬什（Marsh）、蓋伊·卡彭特（Guy Carpenter）和美世（Mercer）都取得了驚人的成長，而且成長非常廣泛。

It was across all regions and practices, and so we felt good about that.

它涉及所有地區和實踐，因此我們對此感覺良好。

We obviously had a softer quarter of growth at Oliver Wyman.

奧緯諮詢的季度成長顯然較為疲軟。

But overall, I thought the growth was good and we're well positioned.

但總的來說，我認為增長良好並且我們處於有利位置。

I spoke to the macro environment, it is shifting and changing.

我談到宏觀環境，它正在改變。

And obviously, interest rates have begun to come down in some major economies around the world, and that's meant some new opportunity, in SPACs and IPO's and well, maybe not SPACs, but IPOs and M&A activity, we're starting to pick up a bit.

And obviously, interest rates have begun to come down in some major economies around the world, and that's meant some new opportunity, in SPACs and IPO's and well, maybe not SPACs, but IPOs and M&A activity, we're starting to pick up a位元.

But Martin, maybe you could talk a little bit about the US marketplace and some of the opportunities we're seeing.

但是馬丁，也許你可以談談美國市場以及我們看到的一些機會。

Sure, John.

當然，約翰。

Thank you.

謝謝。

As you said, very pleased with underlying growth of 7%, which is kind of in line with 8% in 3Q, '23 and 3Q '22, very good balance of growth across international and in the US, but I'll double-click a little bit on the US performed very well, 6% on top of 6% in Q3.

正如您所說，對 7% 的基本成長感到非常滿意，這與 23 年第三季和 22 年第三季的 8% 一致，國際和美國的成長非常平衡，但我會加倍—— click a little bit 在美國的表現非常好，在第三季的6% 基礎上成長了6%。

We saw very good growth from MMA and Vector.

我們看到 MMA 和 Vector 取得了非常好的成長。

And to Elyse question, we did see double-digit growth in the capital markets and MMA products.

對於 Elyse 的問題，我們確實看到資本市場和 MMA 產品出現了兩位數的成長。

Construction & Aviation performed well and globally, very strong growth in our benefits business as well.

建築和航空在全球表現良好，我們的福利業務也成長強勁。

So overall, pleased with that, good momentum and expect that to continue.

總的來說，對此感到滿意，良好的動力並期望這種情況能夠持續下去。

Double-digit growth, at least in capital markets, of course, is off a lower base, right, after a couple of years of a soft environment there.

當然，至少在資本市場，兩位數的成長是在較低的基礎上實現的，在經歷了幾年的軟環境之後。

So thank you for your questions.

謝謝你的提問。

Andrew, next question, please.

安德魯，請下一個問題。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

吉米·布拉爾，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

So first, I just had a question following up on your comments on Milton and its impact on the market.

首先，我想就您對米爾頓的評論及其對市場的影響提出一個問題。

So just specifically on reinsurance.

所以只是專門針對再保險。

Just wondering what your expectations are on how Milton affects renewals?

只是想知道您對米爾頓如何影響續約有何期望？

And should one assume that prices could actually go up, or they're just going to go down given the high loss?

人們是否應該假設價格實際上可能會上漲，或者考慮到高額損失，價格只會下跌？

Yes.

是的。

I think, Jimmy, at the end of the day, it's too early to know that at this point.

吉米，我想，歸根結底，現在知道這一點還為時過早。

There's obviously a range of estimates out there and the ranges are quite wide.

顯然有一系列的估計，而且範圍相當廣泛。

And so there's still a lot for us to learn, many property owners are just getting to their facilities at this point.

因此，我們還有很多東西需要學習，許多業主此時才剛開始使用他們的設施。

And so I spoke about the overall economic impact to the Southeast and what it means to those communities at a human level as well, it's going to be a challenging recovery, and it's going to extend for a bit of period of time.

因此，我談到了對東南部的整體經濟影響，以及這對這些社區在人類層面上的意義，這將是具有挑戰性的復甦，而且會持續一段時間。

Maybe I could ask Dean to comment a little bit about where we're expecting in advance of those storms?

也許我可以請迪恩評論一下我們在風暴來臨之前的預期？

And any thoughts he has on the impact it might have.

以及他對其可能產生的影響的任何想法。

Dean?

院長？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

And Jimmy, as we entered the kind of fall conference season ahead of Helen and Milton, I think our clients, and we anticipated a very competitive market environment at the upcoming January 1 property cat renewal.

吉米，當我們在海倫和米爾頓之前進入秋季會議季節時，我認為我們的客戶和我們預計在即將到來的 1 月 1 日房地產貓更新中將出現一個非常競爭的市場環境。

I think post Milton, it's still early, but I think we see a flattening of pricing in the property cat market at the upcoming January 1 renewal.

我認為在米爾頓之後，現在還為時過早，但我認為在即將到來的 1 月 1 日續約時，我們會看到房地產市場的定價趨於平緩。

If you think about kind of lower and mid-level layers and programs, we kind of see risk-adjusted flattish at this point without all the data in, and you could still see some softening, some rate reductions in more remote risk layers and property cat towers.

如果你考慮一下較低和中層的層和計劃，在沒有所有數據的情況下，我們在這一點上會看到風險調整後持平，並且你仍然可以看到一些軟化，更偏遠的風險層和財產的一些利率下降貓塔。

As John said, keep in mind, it's early.

正如約翰所說，請記住，現在還早。

We're still in wind season.

我們仍處於風季。

There could be additional CAT events over the next several weeks that would shape the market.

未來幾週可能會有更多 CAT 活動來影響市場。

And as John noted, it will be several weeks before we have sufficient claims data to make accurate loss estimates and those impacts on our clients.

正如約翰所指出的那樣，我們需要幾週的時間才能獲得足夠的索賠數據來做出準確的損失估計以及對客戶的影響。

And right now, we're just relying on all of our cat modeling partners to come up with some of those estimates.

現在，我們只是依靠所有的貓建模合作夥伴來提出其中的一些估計。

But to sum it up, Jimmy, I would say, overall, property cat demand should increase at January 1 from our clients.

但總而言之，吉米，我想說，總體而言，我們客戶的房地產需求應該會在 1 月 1 日增加。

We think capacity in the marketplace will be adequate.

我們認為市場容量充足。

We think the renewal will be manageable for most of our clients.

我們認為對於我們的大多數客戶來說，續約都是可以管理的。

The market is well capitalized to trade forward and meet client demand.

市場資本充足，可以進行遠期交易並滿足客戶需求。

And keep in mind, I think the headline, Jimmy, is the major of the cat losses this year will be borne by our clients given the high entachment points that were imposed on that after Hurricane Ian two years ago.

請記住，我認為標題“吉米”是今年貓損失的主要部分，將由我們的客戶承擔，因為兩年前伊恩颶風過後，貓的附著點很高。

Thank you, Dean.

謝謝你，迪恩。

Jimmy, do you have a follow-up?

吉米，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Just on Oliver Wyman.

就在奧緯諮詢。

Obviously, the comps were tough as well, but you noted seeing weakness in some geographic regions.

顯然，競爭也很艱難，但你注意到在某些地理區域看到了弱點。

Was that a function of the economy?

這是經濟的功能嗎？

Or is there something else that's affecting results in the areas that you mentioned.

或是否有其他因素影響您提到的領域的結果。

Yes, sure. 1%, obviously, underlying was softer than we'd planned for.

是的，當然。 1%，顯然，基礎資產比我們計畫的要軟。

It was a tough comp, and we're up 5% year-to-date.

這是一場艱難的比賽，今年迄今為止我們已經上漲了 5%。

And what I would also say is, I mentioned to you in the past, there's going to be more volatility quarter-to-quarter at Oliver Wyman.

我還想說的是，我過去曾向大家提到過，奧緯諮詢的季度波動性將會更大。

We do expect higher underlying revenue growth from Oliver Wyman over the medium to long term.

我們確實預期奧緯諮詢在中長期內的潛在收入成長會更高。

But Nick, maybe you could share some insights on what you're seeing in the market.

但是尼克，也許你可以分享一些你在市場上看到的見解。

Thank you, Jimmy.

謝謝你，吉米。

We often say this is a mid- to high single-digit business through the cycle.

我們常說，這是整個週期中的中高個位數業務。

And I think it's fair to say we're at a low point in the cycle.

我認為可以公平地說我們正處於週期的低點。

And we've talked for a few quarters now about that being a tough market, and we do see that continuing.

我們已經談論了幾個季度，這是一個艱難的市場，而且我們確實看到這種情況會持續下去。

Maybe at a macro level, I'd just note, we're more than 50% larger than we were pre-pandemic.

我想指出的是，也許從宏觀層面來看，我們的規模比疫情大了 50% 以上。

We're 2/3 larger than that pandemic year.

我們的規模比大流行那一年大了 2/3。

And I think we are consolidating those gains in that tough market.

我認為我們正在這個艱難的市場中鞏固這些成果。

But for the quarter itself, no one likes a one following a three.

但就本節本身而言，沒有人喜歡三分之後的一分。

They were at 12 and 11 comp.

他們分別是 12 和 11 人。

Thank you for noting that in the question.

感謝您在問題中註意到這一點。

When we look at the year as a whole, we're five, I think I do want to note we're on the front foot inorganically as well because there are parts of our business where scale does matter.

當我們縱觀這一年時，我們有五個，我想我確實想指出，我們在無機方面也處於領先地位，因為我們業務的某些部分規模確實很重要。

And so the business is 8% larger than in the same periods first three quarters of last year.

因此，今年前三季的業務量比去年同期成長了 8%。

And that represents a form of progress.

這代表了一種進步。

We've seen very strong growth in Asia and the Pacific region, bouncing back from a tougher period, our India, Middle East and Africa business continues to grow.

我們看到亞洲和太平洋地區的成長非常強勁，從困難時期恢復過來，我們的印度、中東和非洲業務持續成長。

The regional softness has been more in the Americas and in Europe.

美洲和歐洲地區表現更為疲軟。

I think some of that is linked to the economy, but also just corporate buying habits given uncertainty in the Americas, maybe in the US, particularly some waiting for the election.

我認為其中一些與經濟有關，但考慮到美洲（也許是美國）的不確定性，尤其是一些等待大選的企業的購買習慣，也與企業的購買習慣有關。

Sector-wise, our best growth has been in our communications, media and technology practice.

從行業角度來看，我們的最佳成長來自於我們的通訊、媒體和技術實踐。

Our insurance and asset management practice growing very strongly.

我們的保險和資產管理業務成長非常強勁。

Automotive and manufacturing doing well, and our large banking practice continuing to be pretty robust.

汽車和製造業表現良好，我們的大型銀行業務持續保持強勁。

But overall, we see it as being a relatively tough market, which we'll continue to work our way through.

但總的來說，我們認為這是一個相對艱難的市場，我們將繼續努力度過這個市場。

Thank you, Jimmy, for your questions.

吉米，謝謝你的提問。

Andrew, next question, please.

安德魯，請下一個問題。

Greg Peters, Raymond James.

格雷格彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good morning.

早安.

I guess for my first question, I'd like to focus on the free cash flow results.

我想對於第一個問題，我想關注自由現金流結果。

I was looking in the statement of cash flows, operating cash flow through the nine months, down a little bit, not growing in line with revenue.

我查看了現金流量表，過去九個月的經營現金流量略有下降，與收入的成長不符。

And just -- I'm sure there's some puts and takes in there.

只是——我確信那裡有一些投入和投入。

Just some color there would be helpful.

只要有一些顏色就會有幫助。

Yes, sure, Greg.

是的，當然，格雷格。

As we've noted in the past, there's going to be more volatility to free cash flow growth, certainly than our earnings growth.

正如我們過去所指出的，自由現金流成長的波動性肯定比我們的獲利成長更大。

But Mark, maybe you could share some color.

但是馬克，也許你可以分享一些顏色。

Yes, just I'll repeat that, John.

是的，我重複一遍，約翰。

We -- free cash flow is something that is volatile quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year.

我們——自由現金流是按季度和按年波動的。

So best looked at over long stretches of time.

因此最好長期觀察。

Our track record in free cash flow growth, as we've noted before, has been terrific.

正如我們之前所指出的，我們在自由現金流成長方面的記錄非常出色。

So we're a double-digit free cash flow growth for a decade plus.

因此，我們的自由現金流在過去十多年一直保持著兩位數的成長。

And that's what you'd expect for a company that's grown its EPS double digits given our high cash generation capital type model.

鑑於我們的高現金生成資本類型模型，這就是您對每股收益兩位數成長的公司的期望。

There's no story in the results year-to-date.

今年迄今為止的結果中沒有任何故事。

So free cash flow is down, was up 28% last year.

所以自由現金流下降了，去年成長了 28%。

It was actually up in the third quarter.

其實第三季就有所上升。

So what you're seeing year-to-date is just a number of factors that caused this period-to-period volatility.

因此，今年迄今為止您所看到的只是導致這種週期性波動的一些因素。

So we had higher variable compensation payouts in the first quarter because of our strong results last year.

因此，由於我們去年的強勁業績，我們在第一季的可變薪酬支出更高。

Receivables are up because of growth and it's just a little bit of business mix and timing.

由於成長，應收帳款增加，這只是業務組合和時機的一點影響。

And there's just a handful of one-timers in last year's period, this period that affect the year-over-year comparison.

去年期間只有少數一次性者，這段時期影響了年比比較。

So overall, we have an outlook for continued strong growth in earnings, and therefore, our free cash flow growth into the future should be strong as well.

因此，總體而言，我們預計獲利將持續強勁成長，因此，我們未來的自由現金流成長也應該強勁。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Greg, do you have a follow-up?

格雷格，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Mark, in your comments, I think you mentioned something about fiduciary income and interest income, and you provided some guidance.

馬克，在您的評論中，我認為您提到了有關信託收入和利息收入的內容，並且您提供了一些指導。

And I'm wondering if you could just -- you guys are flying through so many comments.

我想知道你們是否可以——你們瀏覽了這麼多評論。

If you could just revisit those comments and sort of -- I think you're framing it for fourth quarter.

如果您可以重新審視這些評論，我認為您正在為第四季度製定一個框架。

And if we could push it out and sort of frame it for next year or two for us would be helpful.

如果我們可以將其推出並為明年或兩年制定框架，這對我們會有幫助。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Let me repeat what I said.

讓我重複一下我說過的話。

We did have a lot in the script this quarter.

本季我們的劇本確實有很多內容。

So we just wanted to flag that as we look into the fourth quarter, we typically see, especially in Guy Carpenter, just given the seasonality of their revenue with so much activity in the first half, we do see fiduciary balances that tend to fall off in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們只是想指出，當我們展望第四季度時，我們通常會看到，尤其是蓋伊·卡彭特（Guy Carpenter），考慮到他們收入的季節性以及上半年如此多的活動，我們確實看到信託餘額往往會下降在第四季。

So we do expect fiduciary income to be $30 million or so lower in the fourth quarter from the level we saw in the third quarter.

因此，我們確實預計第四季度的信託收入將比第三季的水平低約 3000 萬美元。

And it's a combination of the rate cuts that have happened and the impact that they will have as well as the seasonal drop in fiduciary balances.

這是已經發生的降息及其產生的影響以及信託餘額季節性下降的綜合影響。

We look out to 2025, it's really going to depend on what rate actions happen from here.

我們展望 2025 年，這實際上取決於接下來會發生什麼利率行動。

What happens in the balance of this year, what happens since the next year.

今年剩下的時間會發生什麼，明年之後會發生什麼。

And so we're going to stay away from speculating there, but just to repeat some of the things we've said in the past.

因此，我們將不再進行猜測，而只是重複我們過去所說的一些事情。

The math is pretty straightforward.

數學非常簡單。

So we've got roughly $11.5 billion of balances on average these days.

因此，目前我們的平均餘額約為 115 億美元。

And so you can use that as a basis to try to do some sensitivity analysis around what that could mean to fiduciary income.

因此，您可以以此為基礎，嘗試圍繞這對信託收入的影響進行一些敏感性分析。

There would be some offsets.

會有一些抵消。

There are -- there is some interplay with some of our variable compensation programs.

我們的一些可變薪酬計劃之間存在一些交互作用。

We obviously would pay less in terms of interest on short-term debt.

顯然，我們會支付較少的短期債務利息。

But we'll just have to wait and see what happens with further cuts as we look into next year.

但我們只能等待，看看明年進一步削減會發生什麼。

Greg, I would just add, we're accustomed to operating in a lower rate environment.

格雷格，我想補充一點，我們習慣在較低費率的環境中運作。

So we'll adjust our plans accordingly.

所以我們會相應地調整我們的計劃。

I will likely be an increasing headwind for us into 2025.

到 2025 年，我可能會成為我們越來越大的阻力。

And we model out the various scenarios, not just from this headwind, but from other headwinds as well.

我們不僅針對這種逆風，而且還針對其他逆風，對各種場景進行了建模。

And so we make plans accordingly.

所以我們制定相應的計劃。

But a lower rate environment could also or likely will impact other parts of our business as well.

但較低的利率環境也可能或可能影響我們業務的其他部分。

We touched on increasing transaction risk as a result of higher volume in M&A markets, IPOs, construction, Mercer Wealth, of course, overall, our cost of capital, will be impacted as well.

我們談到，由於併購市場、首次公開募股、建築、美世財富交易量增加，交易風險不斷增加，當然，整體而言，我們的資本成本也會受到影響。

So there'll be lots of ins and outs from a lower rate environment, and we're working our way through all those issues.

因此，較低的利率環境會帶來許多細節，我們正在努力解決所有這些問題。

Thank you, Greg.

謝謝你，格雷格。

Andrew, next question.

安德魯，下一個問題。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

Mike Zaremski，BMO 資本市場。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Thanks.

謝謝。

First question on the -- thanks for the update on the Marsh pricing index, which moved to negative one territory, I believe.

關於第一個問題——感謝馬什定價指數的更新，我相信該指數已降至負值。

Can you help tease out how this index and kind of pricing in this marketplace is having an impact on Marsh's organic growth?

您能否幫忙梳理一下這個市場的指數和定價類型如何對達信的有機成長產生影響？

I know that there's an element of fees and then commissions as well.

我知道其中包括費用和佣金。

But is this -- is the index as it's decelerated in the last year or so, has it had any material impact on your Marsh's rate of organic growth?

但是，該指數在過去一年左右減速，是否對達信的有機成長率產生了任何實質影響？

Look, first of all, Mike, what I would say is that the markets overall, on average, are stable.

首先，麥克，我要說的是，市場整體平均而言是穩定的。

Insurers have picked up quite a bit of price over the course of the last several years.

在過去幾年中，保險公司的價格已經上漲了相當多。

So minus 1 was some welcome relief at least for many of our clients at Marsh after what's been a tough pricing environment.

因此，在經歷了艱難的定價環境之後，至少對達信的許多客戶來說，負 1 是一種值得歡迎的緩解。

Of course, price is ultimately a reflection of the cost of risk over time.

當然，價格最終反映了隨著時間的推移風險成本。

And so as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the cost of risk continues to escalate.

正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，風險成本持續上升。

About half of our business at Marsh is sensitive to our revenue.

達信大約一半的業務對我們的收入很敏感。

That is a sensitive to P&C pricing through commission.

這對透過佣金進行財產險定價很敏感。

The rest of it, of course, is on a fee.

當然，其餘的都是要收費的。

And it's not a direct line.

而且這不是一條直線。

You have buying habits change as markets soften a bit and the risk environment changes.

隨著市場的疲軟和風險環境的變化，您的購買習慣也會改變。

You may have clients retain less risk than they had over the course of the last few years.

您的客戶所承擔的風險可能比過去幾年小。

We've talked on prior calls, for example, about the growth in our captives business, the premium and the captives that we manage have been growing faster than the premiums that we see into the marketplace.

例如，我們在先前的電話會議上談到了我們自保業務的成長、溢價和我們管理的自保的成長速度快於我們在市場上看到的溢價。

If the market continues to get a bit more competitive, that may change.

如果市場競爭繼續變得更加激烈，這種情況可能會改變。

So obviously, it has an impact, but it's not a straight line from price.

顯然，它會產生影響，但與價格的關係並不是直線。

What I would also point out to you is that our index is skewed to large accounts and that the middle market pricing is more stable, and it's up low to mid-single digits.

我還想向您指出的是，我們的指數偏向大帳戶，中間市場定價更加穩定，並且上漲到低至中個位數。

I hope that's helpful.

我希望這有幫助。

Do you have a follow-up?

你有後續行動嗎？

Yes, a quick follow-up.

是的，快速跟進。

I'll stick with your pricing commentary.

我會堅持你的定價評論。

Hopefully, other people asked about Mercer Health being strong.

希望其他人詢問 Mercer Health 是否強大。

But so US, I believe, you said was plus 20, that's a pretty big number.

但我相信美國，你說的是+20，這是一個相當大的數字。

Maybe you can talk about whether there's dislocation in that marketplace?

或許你可以談談這個市場是否有錯位？

Or what's going on?

或發生了什麼事？

Is it going to be moved to the E&S market?

它會被轉移到 E&S 市場嗎？

Or maybe that's not even in maybe just anything -- any color you could add that seems like that's a number that's distressed for certain some of your clients.

或者也許這甚至不只是任何東西——你可以添加的任何顏色似乎都是讓你的某些客戶感到苦惱的數字。

Yes.

是的。

I'm sure, Mike, on the last call, in fact, I talked about some real troubling signs in the US liability market.

麥克，我相信，事實上，在上次通話中，我談到了美國責任市場的一些真正令人不安的跡象。

Maybe I'll ask Martin to share some insights on what we're seeing in that marketplace.

也許我會請馬丁分享一些關於我們在市場中看到的情況的見解。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, John I'll just start with a comment that overall, the composite rating index is up about 1.5x since 2012.

謝謝約翰，我首先要評論的是，總體而言，綜合評級指數自 2012 年以來上漲了約 1.5 倍。

The casualty book is up 6% in North America with the excess book up 21%.

北美地區的傷亡登記增加了 6%，超額登記增加了 21%。

At the moment, we're not seeing dislocations in that the capacity that clients are requesting we can place, there are smaller limits that insurers have, and we're doing jobs to think what we can do to place quota share programs for our clients to avoid compression of limits.

目前，我們沒有看到客戶要求的容量出現混亂，保險公司的限制較小，而且我們正在考慮如何為客戶提供配額共享計劃以避免限制的壓縮。

And so we don't see anything too sinister in terms of supply for clients at this point.

因此，目前我們在為客戶提供的供應方面並沒有看到任何太危險的情況。

Certainly, there's been a movement to the E&S market, and we're big players in that space.

當然，E&S 市場已經發生了變化，我們是該領域的重要參與者。

And that segment of the market has grown significantly.

這部分市場已經顯著成長。

There's more agility and rate movement in those areas there.

這些區域有更多的靈活性和速率變化。

So we're well positioned to help them with that, and we're continuing to work with them as our clients deal with some of the social inflation that we've talked about in the past as well.

因此，我們有能力幫助他們解決這個問題，並且我們將繼續與他們合作，因為我們的客戶正在應對我們過去也談到的一些社會通貨膨脹問題。

So lots of other services that we need to wrap around that to help our clients navigate this market.

我們需要圍繞這一點提供許多其他服務，以幫助我們的客戶駕馭這個市場。

Thank you, Mike, and thank you, Martin.

謝謝你，麥克，謝謝你，馬丁。

Andrew, next question, please.

安德魯，請下一個問題。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

布萊恩·梅雷迪思，瑞銀集團。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

First one for Dean on the reinsurance side.

Dean 在再保險方面的第一個。

You mentioned that you expect ample capacity in the casualty lines.

您提到您期望傷亡人員有足夠的能力。

I'm just curious, can you maybe talk a little bit about how are the reinsurers do you think going to be reacting to this tort inflation that we continue to see in the marketplace at 1/1?

我只是很好奇，您能否談談您認為再保險公司將如何應對我們在市場上繼續看到的 1/1 的侵權通膨？

Do you think -- we'll see a lot of tightening in terms and conditions.

你認為－我們會看到條款和條件大幅收緊嗎？

What are you hearing?

你聽到什麼？

What are you seeing from them?

你從他們身上看到了什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布萊恩。

I'll hand it to Dean in a second, but loss cost inflation in casualty lines remains a real challenge for the marketplace overall, and we're concerned about it from our clients' perspective, and was the talk of conference season, I think in advance of Helene and Milton.

我稍後會將其交給迪恩，但傷亡險種的損失成本通膨仍然是整個市場面臨的真正挑戰，我們從客戶的角度對此感到擔憂，我認為這也是會議季的話題領先於海倫和米爾頓。

So Dean, maybe you could share some thoughts on what you're seeing in reinsurance casualty.

Dean，也許您可以分享一些您對再保險傷亡事故的看法。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

And Brian, as John said, I think reinsurers generally continue to express great concern about the US casualty reinsurance market focused, in particular, on excess casualty as noted by John and Martin for all the factors we've been discussing.

布萊恩，正如約翰所說，我認為再保險公司總體上繼續對美國傷亡再保險市場表示極大擔憂，特別是約翰和馬丁針對我們一直在討論的所有因素所指出的過度傷亡。

That said, as we head to the 1/1 renewal season, we think current market conditions will largely prevail in the casualty market at 1/1, that said, we continue to see downward pressure on ceding commissions for quota share deals averaging 100 basis points.

也就是說，隨著我們進入1/1 續約季節，我們認為當前的市場狀況將在1/1 的傷亡市場中佔據主導地位，也就是說，我們繼續看到平均100 基點的配額份額交易的讓出佣金面臨下行壓力點。

Therefore, that's a rate increase, excess of loss contracts, more robust rate increases in the 5% to 25% range and maybe many structural changes to get those deals across the line.

因此，這包括利率上調、超額損失合約、5% 至 25% 範圍內更強勁的利率上漲，以及可能的許多結構性變化，以完成這些交易。

We do expect adequate capacity in the marketplace, maybe more limited for XOL deals.

我們確實預計市場上有足夠的容量，但 XOL 交易可能會受到更多限制。

Thus far, these deals are challenging, but they're getting done, they're getting across the line in the marketplace.

到目前為止，這些交易都具有挑戰性，但它們正在完成，它們正在跨越市場的界限。

And I really think the key for our clients, as Martin and John have said, is going to be the performance of their underlying portfolios.

我真的認為，正如馬丁和約翰所說，對我們客戶來說，關鍵是他們的基礎投資組合的表現。

Are they getting underlying rate increases in their books?

他們的帳簿上是否有潛在的利率上漲？

Are they managing limits in excess casualty and other lines that will be the key formula for successful for renewal.

他們是否管理過度傷亡和其他線路的限制，這將是成功更新的關鍵公式。

But casualty is challenging right now in the market, but we think it's stable and most deals will get done.

但目前市場上的傷亡情況充滿挑戰，但我們認為情況穩定，大多數交易都會完成。

So clear signs of loss cost inflation, loss development patterns disrupted by the impact of the economy and closing of courts during the pandemic and then kind of the economic rebound.

如此明顯的跡象表明，損失成本膨脹、損失發展模式因經濟影響而擾亂、大流行期間法院關閉，然後是經濟反彈。

So it's challenging for all of us to get our arms around it.

因此，對我們所有人來說，擁抱它都是一項挑戰。

And we're obviously doing our best to help clients navigate the uncertainty around it.

顯然，我們正在盡最大努力幫助客戶應對周圍的不確定性。

Brian, do you have a follow-up?

布萊恩，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes, absolutely, John.

是的，絕對是，約翰。

And I know we've talked about this before, but maybe just your perspective on the business continuing to flow to the non-admitted market.

我知道我們之前已經討論過這個問題，但也許只是您對業務繼續流向非准入市場的看法。

Do you think that's slowing here?

你認為這裡的速度變慢了嗎？

And then also, how can Marsh kind of react to that to mitigate that or maybe recapture share?

另外，馬什該如何應對才能緩解這種情況，或重新奪回份額？

And does McGriff have anything that could potentially help you benefit you in the non-admitted area?

麥格里夫有什麼可以潛在地幫助你在非錄取領域中受益的東西嗎？

To be clear, we're not losing share as a result of the growth in the E&S market in the United States, you're seeing -- you have seen and observed outsized growth in wholesale broking as a result of that.

需要明確的是，我們並沒有因為美國 E&S 市場的成長而失去份額，您已經看到並觀察到批發經紀業務因此而大幅成長。

But we have access to those markets, and we'll access that capital if it's the right solution for our clients.

但我們可以進入這些市場，如果它是適合我們客戶的解決方案，我們將獲得這些資本。

Generally, we prefer admitted solutions for our clients given kind of what comes with being an admitted insurer.

一般來說，考慮到成為認可的保險公司所帶來的好處，我們更喜歡為客戶提供認可的解決方案。

So our strategy is about accessing as much of the market directly, including E&S insurers as possible.

因此，我們的策略是直接進入盡可能多的市場，包括盡可能多的環境與社會保險公司。

And overwhelmingly, the E&S premium that we place into the market today, we do directly today, right?

絕大多數情況下，我們今天投入市場的 E&S 溢價是我們今天直接做的，對嗎？

So to be clear.

所以要明確一點。

In terms of market growth, future market growth, it's hard to say, but -- and I certainly understand in this dynamic risk environment, certainly multichannel insurers that have both admitted and non-admitted, why they want to use more nonadmitted solutions, it gives them more flexibility to react more quickly to the changing risk environment.

就市場成長、未來市場成長而言，很難說，但是——我當然理解在這種動態風險環境中，當然是承認和不承認的多通路保險公司，為什麼他們想要使用更多非承認的解決方案，它使他們能夠更靈活地對不斷變化的風險環境做出更快的反應。

So I understand that.

所以我明白了。

Again, our focus is accessing capital as directly as possible and as efficiently as possible so we can continue to drive the best solutions for our clients.

同樣，我們的重點是盡可能直接、盡可能有效率地獲取資本，以便我們能夠繼續為客戶提供最佳解決方案。

We'll continue to use wholesale brokers, but for niche expertise where they serve us and our client well.

我們將繼續使用批發經紀人，但他們需要利基專業知識，為我們和我們的客戶提供良好的服務。

So anyway, that's really how we see it, Brian.

所以無論如何，這就是我們的看法，布萊恩。

Andrew, next question, please.

安德魯，請下一個問題。

Grace Carter, Bank of America.

格蕾絲·卡特，美國銀行。

Hi, everyone.

大家好。

I was hoping to ask a couple of cleanup questions regarding McGriff.

我希望問一些關於麥格里夫的清理問題。

Is there any possibility that you all might give us some of the below-the-line impacts like how much you're thinking amortization might increase associated with the deal.

你們是否有可能向我們提供一些離線影響，例如你們認為與交易相關的攤銷可能會增加多少。

And any sort of transaction or integration expenses that we should expect over the next few quarters?

我們在接下來的幾個季度中預計會產生什麼類型的交易或整合費用？

Good morning, Grace, and thanks for the question.

早安，格蕾絲，謝謝你的提問。

No, we're not prepared to do that.

不，我們不準備這樣做。

As I said, it's typical MMA transactions.

正如我所說，這是典型的 MMA 交易。

So we haven't disclosed margins or the underlying performance of the businesses other than I will say, we're very impressed with the performance of McGriff.

因此，我們沒有透露利潤率或業務的基本業績，除了我想說的是，我們對麥格里夫的業績印象非常深刻。

It's had strong underlying revenue growth.

它有強勁的潛在收入成長。

Sales velocity is quite strong as well, very similar to the performance of MMA.

銷售速度也相當強勁，與 MMA 的表現非常相似。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And I guess on the tax rate, I know it's a bit early to be looking at next year, but just kind of considering how the geographic mix of the business might be impacted by the deal.

我想關於稅率，我知道現在考慮明年還為時過早，但只是考慮一下交易可能如何影響業務的地理組合。

I mean is kind of the 25% to 26.5% original guide for this year still kind of fair to assume.

我的意思是，今年 25% 到 26.5% 的原始指南仍然可以合理假設。

And while we're on the subject of tax, if you could help us maybe think about the timeline for utilizing the DTA that you're getting?

當我們討論稅務問題時，您是否可以幫助我們考慮利用您所獲得的避免雙重課稅協定的時間表？

We're not going to guide to 2025.

我們不會指導 2025 年。

We'll talk about that in January on the call.

我們將在一月份的電話會議上討論這個問題。

So Mark, anything else to share on tax overall?

馬克，關於整體稅收還有什麼要分享的嗎？

Just to your question on the deferred tax assets.

只是關於你關於遞延所得稅資產的問題。

So the value I talked about is the present value of the future tax deduction stream that we affect and that is going to go out over a long period of time.

所以我所說的價值是我們影響的未來稅收減免流的現值，並且將在很長一段時間內消失。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Grace.

謝謝你，格蕾絲。

Andrew, next question, please.

安德魯，請下一個問題。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

Appreciate that it's the largest MMA year in MMC's history.

今年是 MMC 史上規模最大的 MMA 年。

I'm curious if the price you're paying for top 100 brokers has changed your thought process at all on relative capital deployment across the different avenues.

我很好奇您為前 100 名經紀商支付的價格是否完全改變了您在不同管道的相對資本部署方面的思維過程。

Look, we've talked about our approach to capital management.

看，我們已經討論了我們的資本管理方法。

We favor investing in the business over buybacks.

我們更傾向於投資該業務而不是回購。

We as you know, aspire to be -- to raise our dividend each and every year as well.

如您所知，我們渴望每年都提高我們的股息。

We have a responsibility, obviously, to be good stewards of our capital.

顯然，我們有責任成為我們資本的好管家。

So we are -- although multiples have increased over the course of the last several years, we have great confidence in our ability to earn a return well in excess of our cost of capital.

因此，儘管過去幾年本益比有所增加，但我們對獲得遠遠超過資本成本的回報的能力充滿信心。

And so should that change, or should we see a deal that doesn't accomplish those objectives?

那麼這種情況是否應該改變，或者我們是否應該看到一項無法實現這些目標的協議？

We'll deploy capital elsewhere.

我們將把資金部署到其他地方。

But we have a very strong reputation as a buyer in the marketplace.

但我們作為買家在市場上享有很高的聲譽。

We spend a lot of time game planning various scenarios from small to midsized kind of tuck-in store business to more material deals like McGriff and we're very well positioned in that marketplace.

我們花了很多時間來規劃各種場景，從中小型的實體店業務到像 McGriff 這樣的更物質的交易，我們在這個市場中處於非常有利的位置。

Mark talked about even after McGriff, we maintain a lot of flexibility if we see the opportunity to make -- not make ourselves not just bigger but better as a business going forward.

馬克談到，即使在麥格里夫之後，如果我們看到機會，不僅讓我們自己變得更大，而且讓我們的企業在未來變得更好，我們也會保持很大的靈活性。

So that's our approach.

這就是我們的方法。

Do you have a follow-up, Rob?

羅布，你有後續行動嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Yes, I just wanted to ask a question on something that I feel like doesn't get a lot of airtime, but I was hoping to get an update on the commission rates and fee rates in the brokerage operations.

是的，我只是想問一個我覺得沒有太多播出時間的問題，但我希望獲得有關經紀業務佣金率和費用率的最新資訊。

Is there anything you can tell us about how these take rates have changed over the course of the hard market in recent years?

您能告訴我們近年來硬市場過程中這些轉換率如何變化的資訊嗎？

And if not, what's driving the stability?

如果不是，是什麼推動了穩定？

I actually -- I don't view the last several years as a hard market, right?

事實上，我並不認為過去幾年是一個艱難的市場，對吧？

Just to start with that.

就從這個開始吧。

I thought what we observed as challenging it was for our retail clients, at Marsh was largely kind of a catch-up period for insurers on average to catch up with the accelerating loss cost.

我認為我們所觀察到的挑戰對於我們的零售客戶來說是一個挑戰，在達信，平均而言，對於保險公司來說，這基本上是一個追趕期，以趕上不斷加速的損失成本。

Not to say certain markets in a shorter period of time, were challenging.

更不用說某些市場在較短的時間內充滿挑戰。

For example, when ransomware picked up in the cyber market and the underwriting community have not really priced for that kind of risk, the market jumped pretty quickly, but then it settled quite quickly as well.

例如，當勒索軟體在網路市場上流行並且承保社群尚未真正為這種風險定價時，市場會迅速上漲，但隨後也很快穩定下來。

And in fact, the market is coming back in favor of our retail clients a bit at the moment.

事實上，目前市場正在稍微有利於我們的零售客戶。

So I would start with that.

所以我會從那裡開始。

But over a fairly extended period of time, our average commission rates at Marsh have remained fairly stable.

但在相當長的一段時間內，達信的平均佣金率一直保持相當穩定。

From product line to product line, there's some movement, but for the most part, average acquisition expense through Marsh has been pretty constant.

從一個產品線到另一個產品線，有一些變化，但在大多數情況下，透過達信的平均收購費用一直相當穩定。

Thank you, Rob, for your questions.

謝謝你，羅布，你的問題。

Andrew, another question, please?

安德魯，還有一個問題嗎？

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼，TD·考恩。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

John, Mark, your underlying growth in RIS is nothing shy of outstanding.

約翰、馬克，你們在 RIS 的潛在發展是非常出色的。

And we looked last year at double-digit underlying growth this year, it's kind of decelerated down to 6%, which is still excellent, but the question for you going forward, and I know you guide to mid-single digit or better underlying growth across businesses.

我們去年看到了兩位數的基本成長，今年今年有點減速到 6%，這仍然很好，但你未來的問題是，我知道你會引導到中個位數或更好的基本成長跨企業。

So what kind of gives you the confidence that it kind of holds in this kind of zone, maybe even slightly less and doesn't decelerate further?

那麼，什麼樣的因素能讓你有信心讓它保持在這種區域，甚至可能稍微少一點，並且不會進一步減速呢？

Thank you, Andrew.

謝謝你，安德魯。

We always have time for you, Andrew, just to be clear.

安德魯，我們總是有時間讓你澄清。

Look, as I mentioned in our -- in my prepared remarks, the macro environment remains supportive of growth, but we're in this elevated risk environment, geopolitical risk, frequency and severity of weather, cyber events, loss cost inflation, all those things creating opportunities for us to help clients.

看，正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，宏觀環境仍然支持成長，但我們正處於風險較高的環境中，地緣政治風險、天氣的頻率和嚴重程度、網路事件、損失成本通膨等等事情為我們創造了幫助客戶的機會。

And pricing has moderated, but markets have been disciplined overall.

定價有所放緩，但市場整體受到約束。

And we've been very focused on building and adding to our capabilities, right?

我們一直非常專注於建立和增強我們的能力，對嗎？

And McGriff is kind of the latest example of that.

麥格里夫就是最新的例子。

We're investing organically and inorganically.

我們正在進行有機和無機投資。

We've been reshaping the mix of our business over time, right?

隨著時間的推移，我們一直在重塑我們的業務組合，對嗎？

So McGriff is another example of deploying capital into the faster-growing middle market.

因此，麥格里夫是將資本部署到成長更快的中間市場的另一個例子。

I would also note that we're working together better than we ever have as well.

我還要指出的是，我們的合作比以往任何時候都更好。

That's driving some real growth opportunities for us as well.

這也為我們帶來了一些真正的成長機會。

So again, we'll guide around 2025 in January.

因此，我們將在 2025 年 1 月左右提供指導。

But I feel like we're executing well and in this elevated risk environment.

但我覺得我們在這種高風險環境中執行得很好。

There's real opportunities for us to continue to drive good growth in our business.

我們有真正的機會繼續推動我們業務的良好成長。

Got it.

知道了。

And you just touched on the faster growth in MMA.

您剛剛談到了 MMA 的快速成長。

Any color, John, that you could provide around how much it outpaces large corporate business?

約翰，您能提供什麼顏色來說明它比大型企業業務快多少嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean we're not going to disclose kind of segment growth, but it is higher.

我的意思是，我們不會透露細分市場的成長情況，但它會更高。

It's over time.

時間已經過去了。

And by the way, not in every quarter and in every year for that matter over the course of the last several years has it outpaced the upmarket growth at Marsh, but it's been a more consistent growth business for us.

順便說一句，在過去幾年中，並不是每個季度和每年的成長速度都超過了達信的高端市場成長速度，但對我們來說，這是一項更穩定的成長業務。

And what really excites me about that marketplace is how we can bring scale benefits to clients really at a different level.

這個市場真正讓我興奮的是我們如何在不同層面上為客戶帶來規模效益。

And I think McGriff is a great example.

我認為麥克格里夫就是一個很好的例子。

It's a terrific business with outstanding fundamentals, terrific leadership outstanding talent all throughout its business.

這是一家了不起的企業，擁有出色的基本面、出色的領導力和出色的人才。

And we've shown, and as we've brought firms into MMA, we can make them even stronger.

我們已經表明，當我們將公司引入 MMA 時，我們可以使它們變得更加強大。

We can bring capabilities from MMA and Marsh to help them better serve clients.

我們可以利用 MMA 和達信的能力來幫助他們更好地服務客戶。

So we are excited about that.

所以我們對此感到興奮。

So thank you.

所以謝謝你。

Andrew, I appreciate the questions.

安德魯，我很高興提出這些問題。

And Andrew, I think we'll wrap up the call at this point given that we're having a fire alarm in our building.

安德魯，我想我們現在就結束通話，因為我們的大樓裡響起了火警警報。

So I want to thank you all for joining us on the call.

所以我要感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。

In closing, I want to thank our colleagues for their hard work and dedication.

最後，我要感謝我們的同事們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。

I also want to thank our clients for their continued support.

我還要感謝我們的客戶一直以來的支持。

So thank you all, and we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

謝謝大家，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating.

女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。

This does conclude today's program, and you may now disconnect.

今天的節目到此結束，您現在可以斷開連線了。