威達信集團 (MMC) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Marsh & McLennan's earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. Second quarter 2025 financial results and supplemental information were issued earlier this morning. They are available on the company's website at marshmclennan.com. Please note that today's remarks may include forward-looking statements.

歡迎參加 Marsh & McLennan 的財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。2025 年第二季財務業績和補充資訊已於今天早上發布。您可以在公司網站 marshmclennan.com 上查閱這些內容。請注意，今天的評論可能包含前瞻性陳述。

Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and a variety of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such statements. For a more detailed discussion of those factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and to our most recent SEC filings including our most recent Form 10-K, all of which are available on the Marsh & McLennan website.

前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性以及各種因素的影響，這些因素可能導致實際結果與此類陳述所預期的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素的更詳細討論，請參閱我們本季的收益報告以及我們最新的 SEC 文件（包括我們最新的 10-K 表格），所有這些都可以在 Marsh & McLennan 網站上找到。

During the call today, we may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures to the most closely comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the schedule in today's earnings release. (Operator Instructions)

在今天的電話會議中，我們也可能會討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些指標與最接近的 GAAP 指標的對照表，請參閱今天的收益報告中的附表。（操作員指示）

I'll now turn this over to John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh & McLennan.

現在我將這個主題交給 Marsh & McLennan 總裁兼執行長約翰·道爾 (John Doyle)。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our second quarter results reported earlier today. I'm John Doyle, President and CEO of Marsh & McLennan. On the call with me is Mark McGivney, our CFO; and the CEOs of our businesses. Martin South of Marsh, Dean Klisura of Guy Carpenter; Pat Tomlinson of Mercer; and Nick Studer of Oliver Wyman. Also with us this morning is Jay Gelb, Head of Investor Relations.

早安，感謝您加入我們討論今天早些時候報告的第二季業績。我是約翰·道爾 (John Doyle)，Marsh & McLennan 總裁兼執行長。與我一起通話的還有我們的財務長馬克麥吉夫尼 (Mark McGivney) 以及我們各業務部門的執行長。馬什 (Marsh) 的馬丁·索思 (Martin South)、蓋伊·卡彭特 (Guy Carpenter) 的迪安·克利蘇拉 (Dean Klisura)、美世 (Mercer) 的帕特·湯姆林森 (Pat Tomlinson) 和奧緯諮詢 (Oliver Wyman) 的尼克·斯圖德 (Nick Studer)。今天早上與我們一起出席的還有投資者關係主管傑伊·蓋爾布 (Jay Gelb)。

Marsh & McLennan had a solid second quarter. As we said coming into the year, we anticipated impacts from a changing macro environment, and our performance continues to track well with our expectations. Overall, we grew revenue 12% in the quarter, reflecting continued momentum in our business and contributions from an active year of acquisitions in 2024.

達信集團 (Marsh & McLennan) 在第二季表現穩健。正如我們在進入今年時所說的那樣，我們預計宏觀環境的變化會產生影響，而我們的業績繼續與我們的預期保持一致。總體而言，本季我們的營收成長了 12%，這反映了我們業務的持續成長動能以及 2024 年積極收購的貢獻。

Underlying revenue increased 4% for the quarter. I was pleased with our execution, especially given the impact of lower fiduciary interest income, declining P&C pricing and market uncertainty affecting our clients, especially here in the US. Adjusted operating income increased 14% from a year ago. Our adjusted operating margin increased 50 basis points compared to the second quarter of 2024, and adjusted EPS grew 11%.

本季基本收入成長了4%。我對我們的執行感到滿意，特別是考慮到受託人利益收入降低、財產和意外保險價格下降以及市場不確定性對我們客戶（尤其是美國客戶）的影響。調整後的營業收入較去年同期成長了14%。我們的調整後營業利潤率與 2024 年第二季相比增加了 50 個基點，調整後的每股盈餘增加了 11%。

Turning to the macro environment. The global economic outlook remains uncertain as we move into the second half of the year. Ground wars, culture wars, trade wars, extreme weather and the opportunities and risks from the rapid development of AI are creating complex operating conditions. Oliver Wyman recently teamed up with the New York Stock Exchange to see how CEOs are thinking about and responding to the challenges they face.

轉向宏觀環境。進入下半年，全球經濟前景依然不明朗。地面戰爭、文化戰爭、貿易戰、極端天氣以及人工智慧快速發展帶來的機會和風險正在創造複雜的作戰條件。奧緯諮詢 (Oliver Wyman) 最近與紐約證券交易所合作，了解執行長們如何思考和應對他們所面臨的挑戰。

165 CEOs responded on topics ranging from managing geopolitical instability and supply chain disruption to capturing value from AI. In all, 89% of CEOs rated geopolitics along with trade and industrial policies as a risk to their company, up 20 percentage points from 2024. CEOs are focused on extracting growth in a slowing economy and a more complex geopolitical environment while tightly managing costs and spending more time on near-term issues.

165 位執行長就管理地緣政治不穩定和供應鏈中斷以及從人工智慧中獲取價值等主題做出了回應。總體而言，89% 的執行長認為地緣政治以及貿易和產業政策對其公司構成風險，比 2024 年增加了 20 個百分點。執行長們專注於在經濟放緩和更複雜的地緣政治環境中實現成長，同時嚴格管理成本並花更多時間處理短期問題。

While the environment presents challenges for our clients, it also provides Marsh & McLennan with an opportunity to support them. We're advising clients on near- and long-term strategies and guiding them on growth and building resilience during this dynamic period. This includes analyzing supply chain risks and helping them consider the impacts of AI on their workforce.

雖然環境為我們的客戶帶來了挑戰，但它也為 Marsh & McLennan 提供了支持他們的機會。我們為客戶提供短期和長期策略建議，並指導他們在這段動態時期實現成長和增強韌性。這包括分析供應鏈風險並幫助他們考慮人工智慧對其勞動力的影響。

Together, we can transform these challenges into opportunities. I also want to take a moment to address the current litigation environment in the US. Excessive litigation and the abuse of our legal system are effectively imposing a tax on our economy and causing a surge in US liability insurance costs. US already has the highest liability insurance rates in the world and escalating costs will only make it harder for companies to decide to invest and grow here.

我們可以共同將這些挑戰轉化為機會。我還想花點時間談談美國目前的訴訟環境。過度的訴訟和對法律制度的濫用實際上給我們的經濟帶來了負擔，並導緻美國責任保險成本飆升。美國已經擁有世界上最高的責任保險費率，不斷上漲的成本只會使企業更難決定在這裡投資和發展。

And for those that do, they will ultimately have to pass along these increased costs to consumers. Our torch system is intended to provide fair compensation to injured parties who have been wronged. But too often, we see tort litigation backed by a vast and growing industry with outside investors. The result in many cases, is that agreed parties see less than half of the settlement awards.

而對於那些這樣做的企業來說，他們最終將不得不把增加的成本轉嫁給消費者。我們的火炬系統旨在為受到不公正對待的受害方提供公平的賠償。但我們經常看到的是，侵權訴訟是由外部投資者等龐大且不斷發展的產業所支持的。在許多情況下，結果是，達成協議的各方只能獲得不到一半的和解賠償。

Our clients are feeling the effects of this growing problem. Consider the rise of so-called nuclear verdicts, cases exceeding $100 million have grown 400% over the past decade according to the US Chamber of Commerce. This trend is encouraging more lawsuits and blockbuster verdicts, which drive up insurance costs.

我們的客戶正在感受到這個日益嚴重的問題的影響。考慮到所謂的核裁決的增加，根據美國商會的數據，過去十年中超過 1 億美元的案件增加了 400%。這種趨勢導致更多的訴訟和重大判決，推高了保險成本。

In fact, in 2024, US liability insurance experienced the most severe adverse reserve development of any single line of coverage since the 2008 global financial crisis. This was more than double the amount from the previous year. And over the past decade, US excess casualty insurance rates have increased by a cumulative 150%. The addressing these abuses will be challenging and take time.

事實上，2024 年，美國責任險經歷了自 2008 年全球金融危機以來單一保險險種中最嚴重的準備虧損。這一數字比前一年增加了一倍以上。過去十年，美國超額意外險費率累計上漲了150%。解決這些濫用行為將是一項挑戰並且需要時間。

We are committed to working with the business community and policymakers to tackle this challenge. Now turning to insurance market conditions. Overall rates continue to decrease, particularly in property insurance and property cat reinsurance. According to the Marsh Global Insurance Market Index commercial insurance rates decreased 4% in the second quarter, driven by property despite a surge in cat losses in the first six months of the year.

我們致力於與商界和政策制定者合作應對這項挑戰。現在來談談保險市場狀況。整體費率持續下降，尤其是財產保險和財產巨災再保險。根據達信全球保險市場指數，儘管今年上半年巨災損失激增，但受財產保險影響，商業保險費率在第二季下降了 4%。

This follows a 3% decline in the first quarter of 2025. As a reminder, our index skews to large account business. Overall, rates in the US were flat. Latin America, Europe, UK and Asia were all down mid-single digits and Pacific was down double digits. Global casualty rates increased 4% with US excess casualty up 18%, reflecting the previously mentioned liability environment. Workers' compensation decreased by 4%.

此前，2025 年第一季該數字曾下降 3%。提醒一下，我們的指數偏向大帳戶業務。整體而言，美國的利率持平。拉丁美洲、歐洲、英國和亞洲均出現中等個位數的下降，而太平洋地區則出現兩位數的下降。全球傷亡率上漲了 4%，其中美國超額傷亡率上漲了 18%，反映了前面提到的責任環境。工人賠償金減少了4%。

Global property rates decreased by 7% year-over-year compared to a 6% decrease last quarter. Global financial and professional liability rates were down 4% and while cyber decreased 7%. In reinsurance, midyear renewal rates decreased by 5% to 15% for non-loss impacted programs. A moderate increase in client demand was offset by reinsurers increasing capacity as well as increased ceded cat bond issuance.

全球房價年減 7%，上一季則下降 6%。全球金融和專業責任率下降了 4%，而網路責任率下降了 7%。在再保險方面，非損失影響計畫的年中續保率下降了 5% 至 15%。客戶需求的適度成長被再保險公司增加的承保能力以及增加的巨災債券發行所抵銷。

The cat bond market is on pace for a record year of issuance with over 50 new bonds in the first half, involving approximately $17 billion of limit. In US Casualty Reinsurance, renewals were largely stable with sufficient capacity reflecting the underwriting actions of primary carriers. As always, we continue to help our clients navigate a range of market conditions.

巨災債券市場可望創下發行量新高，上半年共發行超過 50 隻新債券，涉及限額約 170 億美元。在美國意外險再保險中，續保量基本上穩定，承保能力充足，反映了主要承保人的承保行為。像往常一樣，我們將繼續幫助客戶應對各種市場狀況。

Now let me turn to our second quarter financial performance and outlook, which Mark will cover in more detail. Consolidated revenue increased 12% to $7 billion and grew 4% on an underlying basis, with 4% growth in RIS and 3% growth in consulting. Marsh was up 5%; Guy Carpenter grew 5%; Mercer, 3% and Oliver Wyman was up 3%.

現在讓我來談談我們第二季的財務表現和展望，馬克將對此進行更詳細的介紹。綜合收入成長 12%，達到 70 億美元，基本收入成長 4%，其中 RIS 成長 4%，諮詢業務成長 3%。達信 (Marsh) 上漲 5%；佳達 (Guy Carpenter) 上漲 5%；美世 (Mercer) 上漲 3%；奧緯 (Oliver Wyman) 上漲 3%。

We had adjusted operating income growth of 14%, and we generated adjusted EPS in the quarter of $2.72, which is up 11% from a year ago. We also announced a 10% increase to our quarterly dividend to $0.90 and completed $300 million of share repurchases during the quarter. Turning to our outlook for 2025. We continue to expect to deliver mid-single-digit underlying revenue growth, solid growth in adjusted EPS and our 18th consecutive year of reported margin expansion.

我們的調整後營業收入成長了 14%，本季調整後的每股盈餘為 2.72 美元，比去年同期成長了 11%。我們還宣布將季度股息提高 10% 至 0.90 美元，並在本季度完成了 3 億美元的股票回購。展望 2025 年。我們繼續預期實現中等個位數的基礎收入成長、調整後每股收益的穩健成長以及連續第 18 年報告的利潤率成長。

Of course, this outlook is based on conditions today and the economic backdrop could turn out to be materially different than our assumptions. In summary, we are pleased with our first half performance in a complex and dynamic macro environment. We're confident that the enduring value we provide to clients makes our business resilience even during times of economic uncertainty.

當然，這種展望是基於當今的條件，而經濟背景可能與我們的假設有重大差異。整體來說，在複雜多變的宏觀環境下，我們對上半年的表現感到滿意。我們相信，我們為客戶提供的持久價值使我們的業務即使在經濟不確定時期也具有韌性。

Our collection of capabilities is unique and there is strong client demand around the world for our advice and solutions. We believe we are the best positioned company in our markets, and we've earned our leadership position through 154 years of innovation and growth. Our discipline to invest for the future while delivering consistent results is not new. It's a fundamental philosophy that guides our planning and capital allocation.

我們的能力集合是獨一無二的，全球客戶對我們的建議和解決方案有著強烈的需求。我們相信，我們是市場上最具優勢的公司，我們透過 154 年的創新和發展贏得了領導地位。我們堅持投資未來並持續取得成果的原則，這並不是什麼新鮮事。這是指導我們規劃和資本配置的基本概念。

With that, let me turn it over to Mark for a more detailed review of our results.

接下來，讓我將其交給馬克，以便他對我們的結果進行更詳細的審查。

Thank you, John, and good morning. Our second quarter results were solid, reflecting our strong position and execution despite a more challenging environment. Consolidated revenue increased 12% to $7 billion with underlying growth of 4%. Operating income was $1.8 billion, and adjusted operating income was $2.1 billion, up 14%. Our adjusted operating margin increased 50 basis points to 29.5%.

謝謝你，約翰，早安。我們第二季的業績穩健，儘管面臨更具挑戰性的環境，但仍反映了我們強大的地位和執行力。綜合營收成長 12%，達到 70 億美元，基本成長率為 4%。營業收入為18億美元，調整後營業收入為21億美元，成長14%。我們的調整後營業利益率增加了 50 個基點，達到 29.5%。

GAAP EPS was $2.45, and adjusted EPS was $2.72, up 11% over last year. For the first six months of 2025, underlying revenue growth was 4%. Adjusted operating income grew 11% to $4.3 billion. Our adjusted operating margin increased 20 basis points adjusted EPS increased 8% to $5.78. Looking at risk and insurance services.

GAAP EPS 為 2.45 美元，調整後 EPS 為 2.72 美元，較去年同期成長 11%。2025 年前六個月，基礎收入成長率為 4%。調整後的營業收入成長 11% 至 43 億美元。我們的調整後營業利潤率成長了20個基點，調整後每股盈餘成長了8%，達到5.78美元。風險和保險服務方面。

Second quarter revenue was $4.6 billion, up 15% from a year ago or 4% on an underlying basis. Operating income in RIS was $1.4 billion. Adjusted operating income was $1.6 billion, up 16% over last year. The adjusted operating margin expanded 30 basis points to 35.6%. For the first six months of the year, revenue in RIS was $9.4 billion with underlying growth 4%.

第二季營收為 46 億美元，較去年同期成長 15%，基本成長 4%。RIS 的營業收入為 14 億美元。調整後的營業收入為 16 億美元，比去年成長 16%。調整後的營業利益率擴大30個基點至35.6%。今年前六個月，RIS 的營收為 94 億美元，基本成長率為 4%。

Adjusted operating income increased 12% to $3.5 billion, adjusted operating margin was 36.9%. At Marsh, revenue in the quarter was $3.8 billion, up 18% from a year ago or 5% on an underlying basis. This comes on top of 7% underlying growth in the second quarter of last year. It was a good result given the softening rate environment in property as well as uncertainty in the economic outlook, especially in the US.

調整後營業收入成長 12% 至 35 億美元，調整後營業利益率為 36.9%。達信本季營收為 38 億美元，較去年同期成長 18%，基本成長 5%。這是在去年第二季 7% 基本成長率的基礎上實現的。考慮到房地產利率環境疲軟以及經濟前景（尤其是美國）的不確定性，這是一個很好的結果。

In US and Canada, underlying growth was 4% for the quarter. In international, underlying growth remained excellent at 7%, with EMEA up 8%, Asia Pacific up 4%; and Latin America, up 3%. For the first six months of the year, Marsh's revenue was $7.3 billion with underlying growth of 5%. US and Canada grew 4% and international was up 6%.

美國和加拿大本季基本成長率為 4%。在國際方面，基本成長率仍保持優異，達到 7%，其中歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長 8%，亞太地區成長 4%，拉丁美洲成長 3%。今年前六個月，Marsh 的營收為 73 億美元，基本成長率為 5%。美國和加拿大成長了 4%，國際成長了 6%。

Guy Carpenter's revenue in the quarter was $677 million, up 7% from a year ago or 5% on an underlying basis. Growth remains solid despite softer reinsurance market conditions and came on top of 11% growth -- underlying growth in the second quarter of last year. For the first six months of the year, Guy Carpenter generated $1.9 billion of revenue and 5% underlying growth.

Guy Carpenter 本季的營收為 6.77 億美元，比去年同期成長 7%，基本成長 5%。儘管再保險市場狀況疲軟，但成長依然穩健，並且高於去年第二季 11% 的成長——基本成長率。今年前六個月，Guy Carpenter 的營收為 19 億美元，潛在成長率為 5%。

In the Consulting segment, second quarter revenue was $2.4 billion, up 7% or 3% on an underlying basis. Consulting operating income was $456 million, and adjusted operating income was $479 million, up 9%. Our adjusted operating margin in consulting was 20.2% up 40 basis points from a year ago. The first six months, consulting revenue was $4.7 billion, reflecting underlying growth of 4%.

在顧問部門，第二季營收為 24 億美元，成長 7%，基本成長 3%。諮詢業務營業收入為 4.56 億美元，調整後營業收入為 4.79 億美元，成長 9%。我們諮詢業務的調整後營業利潤率為 20.2%，比去年同期成長了 40 個基點。前六個月，諮詢收入為 47 億美元，反映出 4% 的潛在成長。

Adjusted operating income increased 9% to $970 million, and the adjusted operating margin increased 40 basis points to 20.7%. Mercer's revenue was $1.5 billion in the quarter, up 9% or 3% on an underlying basis. Health grew 7%, reflecting continued solid growth across all regions. Wealth was up 2%, led by investment management. Our assets under management were $670 billion at the end of the second quarter, up 9% sequentially and up 36% compared to the second quarter of last year.

調整後營業收入成長 9% 至 9.7 億美元，調整後營業利潤率增加 40 個基點至 20.7%。美世本季營收為 15 億美元，年增 9%，基本面成長 3%。健康業務成長了 7%，反映出所有地區均持續穩健成長。財富成長了 2%，主要由投資管理推動。截至第二季末，我們管理的資產規模為 6,700 億美元，季增 9%，年增 36%。

Year-over-year growth was driven by our acquisitions of Cardano and SCOR, positive net flows and the impact of capital markets and foreign exchange. Career was down 5% in the quarter, reflecting continued softness in project-related work in the US and Canada. For the first six months of the year, revenue at Mercer was $3 billion with 3% underlying growth.

年成長得益於我們對 Cardano 和 SCOR 的收購、正淨流量以及資本市場和外匯的影響。本季職業職位下降了 5%，反映出美國和加拿大專案相關工作持續疲軟。今年前六個月，美世的收入為 30 億美元，潛在成長率為 3%。

Oliver Wyman's revenue in the second quarter was $873 million, up 5% or 3% on an underlying basis. led by solid growth in the US. The first six months of the year, revenue at Oliver Wyman was $1.7 billion, an increase of 4% on an underlying basis. Fiduciary interest income was $99 million in the quarter, down $26 million compared with the second quarter last year, reflecting lower interest rates.

奧緯諮詢第二季營收為 8.73 億美元，年增 5%，基本面成長 3%，主要得益於美國市場的穩健成長。今年上半年，奧緯諮詢的收入為 17 億美元，年增 4%。本季信託利益收入為 9,900 萬美元，與去年第二季相比下降了 2,600 萬美元，反映出利率下降。

Looking ahead to the third quarter, based on the current environment, we expect fiduciary interest income will be approximately $105 million. Foreign exchange had a de minimis effect on adjusted EPS in the second quarter. Exchange rates have been volatile, making it challenging to predict their impact looking forward. However, based on current rates, we anticipate FX will have a minimal impact on adjusted EPS in the third quarter and will be a modest benefit in the fourth quarter.

展望第三季度，基於當前環境，我們預期受託權益收入將達到約 1.05 億美元。外匯對第二季調整後每股盈餘的影響微乎其微。匯率一直在波動，因此很難預測其未來的影響。然而，根據目前的匯率，我們預期外匯對第三季調整後每股盈餘的影響將很小，對第四季的影響將很小。

Turning to our McGriff transaction. Our integration continues to go well, and we are pleased with McGriff's year-to-date performance. We continue to expect that McGriff will be modestly accretive to adjusted EPS for full year 2025, becoming more meaningfully accretive in 2026 and beyond. We still expect noteworthy charges associated with McGriff of approximately $450 million to $500 million in total through 2027 and with the vast majority of these costs associated with retention incentives, a significant portion of which was put in place by the seller.

談談我們的 McGriff 交易。我們的整合繼續進展順利，我們對麥格里夫今年迄今為止的表現感到滿意。我們繼續預計，McGriff 的調整後每股盈餘將在 2025 年全年小幅成長，並在 2026 年及以後實現更顯著的成長。我們仍然預計，到 2027 年，與 McGriff 相關的重大費用總計約為 4.5 億至 5 億美元，其中絕大部分成本與留任激勵措施有關，而其中很大一部分是由賣方制定的。

As is our convention, we are excluding McGriff from our underlying growth calculations for the first year. Total noteworthy items in the second quarter were $88 million, the majority of which were acquisition-related costs. Interest expense in the second quarter was $243 million, up from $156 million in the second quarter of 2024. This increase reflects higher levels of debt associated with the McGriff transaction.

按照慣例，我們將麥格里夫排除在第一年的基本成長計算之外。第二季值得注意的項目總額為 8,800 萬美元，其中大部分是收購相關成本。第二季利息支出為 2.43 億美元，高於 2024 年第二季的 1.56 億美元。這一增長反映了與 McGriff 交易相關的債務水平上升。

Based on our current forecast, we expect interest expense will be approximately $240 million in the third quarter. Our adjusted effective tax rate in the second quarter was 25.3%. This compares with 26.2% in the second quarter last year. Excluding discrete items, our adjusted effective tax rate was approximately 25.5%. We continue to expect an adjusted effective tax rate of between 25% and 26% in 2025, excluding discrete.

根據我們目前的預測，我們預計第三季的利息支出約為 2.4 億美元。我們第二季的調整後有效稅率為25.3%。相比之下，去年第二季這一比例為 26.2%。不包括單一項目，我們的調整後有效稅率約為 25.5%。我們繼續預期 2025 年調整後有效稅率將在 25% 至 26% 之間（不包括離散稅）。

Turning to capital management. Our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with total debt of $19.7 billion. Our next scheduled debt maturity is in the first quarter of 2026, with $600 million of senior notes mature. Our cash position at the end of the second quarter was $1.7 billion. Uses of cash in the quarter totaled $776 million and included $405 million for dividends, $71 million for acquisitions and $300 million for share repurchases.

轉向資本管理。我們的資產負債表顯示，本季末我們的總負債為 197 億美元。我們的下一個預定債務到期日是 2026 年第一季度，屆時將有 6 億美元的優先票據到期。我們第二季末的現金狀況為 17 億美元。本季現金使用總額為 7.76 億美元，其中包括 4.05 億美元的股息、7,100 萬美元的收購和 3 億美元的股票回購。

For the first six months, uses of cash totaled $1.6 billion and included $810 million for dividends, $166 million for acquisitions and $600 million for share repurchase. We continue to expect to deploy approximately $4.5 billion of capital in 2025 across dividends, acquisitions and share repurchases. The ultimate level of share repurchase will depend on how our M&A pipeline develops.

前六個月，現金使用總額為 16 億美元，其中包括 8.1 億美元的股利、1.66 億美元的收購和 6 億美元的股票回購。我們仍預計到 2025 年將在股利、收購和股票回購方面投入約 45 億美元的資本。股票回購的最終水準將取決於我們的併購管道如何發展。

Last week, we announced a 10% increase in our quarterly dividend, making this our 16th consecutive year of dividend increases. This reflects our solid earnings growth and confidence in our outlook. Overall, we are pleased with our second quarter results. For the full year, we continue to expect mid-single-digit underlying revenue growth, margin expansion and solid growth in adjusted EPS.

上週，我們宣布季度股息增加 10%，這是我們連續第 16 年增加股息。這反映了我們穩健的獲利成長和對前景的信心。總體而言，我們對第二季的業績感到滿意。對於全年而言，我們繼續預期基礎收入將實現中等個位數成長、利潤率將擴大、調整後每股收益將穩健成長。

However, as John mentioned, this outlook is based on conditions today and the economic backdrop, especially in light of continued uncertainty around global trade policies, could turn out to be materially different than our assumptions.

然而，正如約翰所提到的，這種展望是基於當今的條件和經濟背景，特別是考慮到全球貿易政策持續的不確定性，可能會與我們的假設有重大差異。

With that, I'm happy to turn it back to John.

有了這些，我很高興把它交還給約翰。

Thank you, Mark. Andrew, we're ready to begin Q&A.

謝謝你，馬克。安德魯，我們準備開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

（操作員指示）格雷戈里·彼得斯、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

So my first question, in your comments, John, you talked about the pricing index being down 4% in the second quarter on top of being down 3% in the first quarter. Are you seeing anywhere in the system upward pressure on pricing? Or if we look forward over the next 12 months to 18 months, are we going to continually see these low single-digit rate decreases in the broader market?

所以我的第一個問題是，約翰，在你的評論中，你談到價格指數在第一季下降了 3% 之後，第二季又下降了 4%。您是否發現系統中存在價格上漲的壓力？或者，如果我們展望未來 12 個月到 18 個月，我們是否會繼續看到大盤出現這些低個位數的利率下降？

Yes. Greg, thanks for the question. Insurance and reinsurance markets, for the most part, continue to soften a bit in the second quarter. We talked -- or I mentioned at least a little bit of the reinsurance market, it's pretty stable or consistent price decreases through the first half of the year, largely driven by property and where we're seeing more rate pressure on the retail side, of course, is in property as well.

是的。格雷格，謝謝你的提問。總體而言，保險和再保險市場在第二季繼續略有疲軟。我們談到了——或者我至少提到了一點再保險市場，今年上半年它的價格相當穩定或持續下降，主要是受房地產推動，而且我們看到零售方面的利率壓力更大，當然，房地產方面也是如此。

The big exception, and I spoke to it, is in excess casualty. And it's in part why I keep talking about the US litigation environment. It's a high cost of risk to operate here in the United States. The liability environment is one part of it. We have more of our economy, more of our population here in the US exposed to extreme weather events.

最大的例外，我已談過，是傷亡過多。這也是我不斷談論美國訴訟環境的部分原因。在美國開展業務的風險成本很高。責任環境是其中的一部分。美國的經濟和人口更受到極端天氣事件的影響。

And that's been disruptive to our economy. Health care-related risk continues to escalate quite a bit as well. All are among the most, if not the most expensive in the world. And so at a time when our country is focused on investing in infrastructure and investing in technology. These are meaningful costs on our clients. And we see them in our own business, too.

這對我們的經濟造成了破壞。與醫療保健相關的風險也持續大幅上升。它們都是世界上最昂貴的，甚至可以說是最昂貴的。因此，在我們國家專注於投資基礎設施和技術的時候。這些對我們的客戶來說都是有意義的成本。我們在自己的業務中也看到了這一點。

And so I think it's important for us to talk about it. And the liability comments were in part driven by the recent legislation in the one big, beautiful bill. There was a proposed amendment by Senator Tillis to change tax policy around litigation financing. I mentioned right now, in many cases, an injured party gets less than 50% of the outcome of a settlement.

所以我認為我們討論這個問題很重要。而責任評論在某種程度上是由最近一項重大而美麗的法案所推動的。參議員蒂利斯提出了一項修正案，旨在改變訴訟融資的稅收政策。我剛才提到，在很多情況下，受傷方獲得的賠償金額不到 50%。

That injured party by the way, pays ordinary income tax in the United States. A lit funder pays capital gains, a foreign investor pay zero tax. So it was a missed opportunity. It wasn't the only thing. There's other things that need to happen, and we're focused on this for our clients. So I expect casualty pricing to continue to be under pressure for our clients and rates to continue to grow. I also spoke to the active first half of cats, right?

順便說一句，受害方在美國繳的是普通所得稅。本土投資者繳納資本利得稅，而外國投資者則不繳稅。所以這是一個錯失的機會。這不是唯一的事情。還有其他事情需要發生，我們專注於為客戶做這些事情。因此，我預計傷亡保險定價將繼續給我們的客戶帶來壓力，並且費率將繼續上漲。我也跟貓咪活躍的前半部說過了吧？

So while prices are down now, over time, pricing is going to track along with the growing cost of risk here in the United States. And so it's difficult to predict over a 6-month or 12-month period, but there's no question in my mind, there's a rising cost of risk environment here in the United States. You have a follow-up?

因此，雖然現在價格下降，但隨著時間的推移，價格將隨著美國風險成本的增加而上漲。因此，很難預測 6 個月或 12 個月內的情況，但我毫不懷疑，美國的風險環境成本正在上升。您有後續行動嗎？

Yes, I do, of course. I'm going to pivot to the Mercer segment. And I just wanted to pick a part or have you provide more detail on the wealth and career components of organic. I guess I was listening to Mark's comments about AUM being up. I think he said 36% year-over-year in wealth, yes, we're only seeing 2% organic revenue growth.

是的，我當然知道。我將轉向美世部門。我只是想選擇一部分，或者讓您提供有關有機財富和職業組成部分的更多細節。我想我聽到了馬克關於 AUM 上升的評論。我認為他說的是財富年增 36%，是的，我們只看到 2% 的有機收入成長。

So I'm trying to understand the connection there. And then on career, I think that's probably a little bit more of your more economically sensitive business, but maybe you could speak to the outlook for both of those businesses, please?

所以我試著去理解其中的連結。然後關於職業，我認為這可能更多的是你對經濟更敏感的業務，但也許你可以談談這兩個業務的前景，好嗎？

Yes. Sure, Greg. Thanks for the question. Yes, I think overall for the company, we had a terrific quarter of growth. Again, 12% on a consolidated basis, good underlying -- good solid underlying effort at Marsh and GC. Parts of our consulting businesses where they are maybe even more discretionary spend, if you will, parts of career, parts of our business at Oliver Wyman as well. notably branding.

是的。當然，格雷格。謝謝你的提問。是的，我認為對於公司整體而言，本季我們實現了驚人的成長。再次，以合併基礎計算為 12%，良好的基礎——Marsh 和 GC 的良好堅實的基礎努力。如果您願意的話，我們的諮詢業務的某些部分可能包含更多的可自由支配的開支，職業發展的部分，以及奧緯諮詢的部分業務，尤其是品牌建設。

For example, some of the softer parts that are more exposed to not just a declining economy, but just some of the uncertainty as many big businesses in the US are playing a bit of defense. But -- and we had a terrific quarter of growth in health at Mercer, but Pat, maybe you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing in both career and in the investment business.

例如，一些較軟的部分不僅更容易受到經濟衰退的影響，還會受到一些不確定性的影響，因為美國的許多大企業都在採取一些防禦措施。但是 — — 美世的健康業務在本季度取得了驚人的成長，但帕特，也許你可以談談你在職業和投資業務方面看到的情況。

Great. Thanks, John, and thanks for the question, Greg. Let me start with wealth since that's -- seems to be the spot you started a little bit more detail on your question. It's important to note that the wealth business is a portfolio of services across defined benefits pension consulting investment advisory services and OCIO. So you mentioned AUM, only the OCIO business segment for the revenue there, are we compensated by AUM.

偉大的。謝謝，約翰，也謝謝你的提問，格雷格。讓我先從財富開始，因為這似乎是你開始更詳細地討論你的問題的地方。值得注意的是，財富業務是涵蓋固定收益退休金諮詢、投資諮詢服務和 OCIO 的服務組合。所以您提到了 AUM，只有 OCIO 業務部門的收入才由 AUM 補償。

So that's the only spot that impacts that, first off. Overall, wealth, as Mark mentioned, we grew 2% in Q2, driven by the growth in our investments business, particularly the OCIO offering, right, tied to we were challenged by some tougher comps in the DB pension consulting work. Now while we have mentioned in the past that the defined benefits pension space is in structural decline.

所以首先，這是唯一會產生影響的地方。總體而言，正如馬克所提到的，財富在第二季度增長了 2%，這得益於我們投資業務的增長，特別是 OCIO 產品的增長，這與我們在 DB 退休金諮詢工作中面臨的一些更嚴格的競爭挑戰有關。雖然我們過去曾提到過，固定收益退休金領域正在結構性衰退。

In recent years, we've actually seen an increase in demand for project-based consulting on the back of higher plan funded statuses that has been driven by higher interest rates as well as there's been a bump in regulatory requirements in certain jurisdictions around the world. Now this year, the demand for that type of work that I've described is starting to slow, specifically in the US and in the UK.

近年來，我們實際上已經看到，由於利率上升以及全球某些司法管轄區監管要求的提高，專案諮詢需求增加。今年，我所描述的這類工作的需求開始放緩，特別是在美國和英國。

as clients look to pause discretionary project work due to shifting priorities in the macro environment. And then there's been slowing demand for those regulatory changes that I mentioned. All right. And demand for the DC type plan solutions. So think of Master Trust in Australia or the UK or things like 401(k)s in the United States. Those continue to grow.

由於宏觀環境優先事項的變化，客戶希望暫停自由裁量的專案工作。然後，我提到的那些監管變化的需求也在放緩。好的。以及對DC型方案解決方案的需求。想想澳大利亞或英國的 Master Trust 或美國的 401(k) 之類的計劃。這些還在持續增長。

And we're also advancing our investment advice and OCIO solutions for diversified asset owners, right? So there's insurers, endowments and foundations, family office, wealth management, those types of asset owners. Now OCIO tied to AUM has been a strong growth engine for Mercer over the long term. And over the past year, we've seen strong net inflows, both organically and inorganically.

我們也在為多元化資產所有者提供投資建議和 OCIO 解決方案，對嗎？因此，有保險公司、捐贈基金和基金會、家族辦公室、財富管理等類型的資產所有者。目前，與 AUM 掛鉤的 OCIO 已經成為美世長期強勁的成長引擎。在過去的一年裡，我們看到了強勁的淨流入，包括有機流入和無機流入。

And the 36% that you mentioned that Mark had mentioned, included our inorganic and our growth rate, we take -- we exclude that. So that's a component there that likely ties to that component. And while capital markets, they've been volatile in 2025, I would say they still provided us a bit of a year-over-year tailwind in Q2. So that's good.

您提到的馬克提到的 36% 包括我們的無機收入和成長率，我們將其排除在外。因此，這是一個可能與該組件相關的組件。儘管 2025 年資本市場一直不穩定，但我想說，它仍然為我們在第二季帶來了一些同比順風。這很好。

Bottom line, we really maintain that our capabilities and the value we're creating for clients here will continue to drive growth for us inside of this segment. So I think the difference between the 36% and the 9% that he talked about sequentially was really tied to the inorganic and organic component of the AUM growth. Now Career, which is the second part of your question, I've got to provide a little bit of context on the career business to be able to answer that one.

最重要的是，我們確實堅信，我們的能力和我們為客戶創造的價值將繼續推動我們在這一領域的成長。因此，我認為他所說的 36% 和 9% 之間的差異實際上與 AUM 增長的無機和有機成分有關。現在是關於職業，這是你問題的第二部分，我必須提供一些關於職業的背景資訊才能回答這個問題。

First, it's a portfolio of offerings. So some of them are project-based consulting assignments, so typically one-time type things and others are more product-like offerings. So think here, compensation benchmarking surveys, assessments, employee engagement surveys. And those tend to be more recurring in nature for the work we're doing for clients.

首先，它是一系列產品。其中一些是基於專案的諮詢任務，通常是一次性的事情，而其他一些則更像產品。所以想想這裡，薪酬基準調查，評估，員工敬業度調查。對於我們為客戶所做的工作而言，這些往往具有更重複的性質。

Additionally, career is naturally prone to some seasonality and client work. It's got a peak period, specifically around the annual comp and reward cycle that clients do as in their year-end planning in late Q3 and in Q4. Now in this quarter, Mark had mentioned Career contracted 5%, right? That was primarily driven by softness in project demand in the United States, which is facing a couple of market dynamics, which are more pronounced than we've seen in international.

此外，職業自然容易受到一些季節性和客戶工作的影響。它有一個高峰期，特別是在客戶在第三季末和第四季進行年終計畫的年度補償和獎勵週期前後。現在在這個季度，馬克提到職業生涯收縮了 5%，對嗎？這主要是由於美國計畫需求疲軟所致，美國面臨的一些市場動態比我們在國際上看到的更為明顯。

The first dynamic there is the current environment of economic uncertainty means that clients are less inclined to commit to larger long-term transformational HR technology projects and big programmatic changes and we tend to do more of those projects in the United States, all right? So there's the first impact. The second is demand for talent and rewards projects tend to be higher during periods with higher inflation.

第一個動態是，當前經濟環境的不確定性意味著客戶不太願意致力於更大的長期轉型人力資源技術項目和大型項目變革，而我們傾向於在美國開展更多此類項目，好嗎？這就是第一個影響。第二，通貨膨脹率較高的時期，對人才和獎勵項目的需求往往較高。

So -- which typically drives up wages, salaries, thinking about bonuses, things like that. And then also when we see higher voluntary employee turnover clients. So both of those activities both drive projects at employers as they look to attract, retain and incent their workforce. The reality in the current employment market is we are seeing relatively low voluntary turnover at clients. And that is reducing the urgency for those types of projects.

所以——這通常會導致工資、薪水、獎金等上漲。然後，我們也會看到自願員工流動率較高的客戶。因此，這兩項活動都推動了雇主的項目，因為他們希望吸引、留住和激勵員工。目前就業市場的現實情況是，我們看到客戶的自願離職率相對較低。這降低了此類項目的緊迫性。

Now this contraction I'm describing in US and Canada was partially offset by the growth we had in international, and we had growth across all three major areas of our business. the talent work we do, the rewards work we do and the transformation work we do across international. So we saw good solid growth there.

現在，我在美國和加拿大所描述的這種收縮被我們在國際上的成長部分抵消了，我們業務的所有三個主要領域都實現了成長。我們所做的人才工作，我們所做的獎勵工作以及我們在國際上所做的轉型工作。因此，我們看到了那裡良好的穩健增長。

We feel like we're the leading rewards consultant business in the world with real capabilities, expertise and geographic reach. The business overall has performed well for us over the last few years. It's continuing to grow in international. So we do remain confident about the longer-term growth momentum that we see in our career business and the value we're going to go ahead and be able to bring to clients.

我們覺得我們是世界領先的獎勵顧問公司，擁有真正的能力、專業知識和地理覆蓋範圍。過去幾年，我們的業務整體表現良好。它在國際上繼續增長。因此，我們對我們的職業業務的長期成長勢頭以及我們將繼續為客戶帶來的價值仍然充滿信心。

Thanks, Pat. So well positioned in both of our businesses, obviously exposed to some of the uncertainty in the US in our career business. And then in our investment business, some structural issues with defined benefit growth in prior years. So thank you Greg. Andrew, next question please.

謝謝，帕特。因此，我們的兩項業務都處於有利地位，但顯然我們的職業業務受到了美國一些不確定性的影響。然後在我們的投資業務中，前幾年固定收益成長存在一些結構性問題。所以謝謝你，格雷格。安德魯，請問下一個問題。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

麥克·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

Question kind of maybe related to the first question, assistly on the RIS segment. So I just want to make sure we're thinking about things correctly. So when we kind of think from a macro level about total organic growth in the IRS segment. Usually, we think nominal GDP is kind of the biggest corollary and very secondary kind of would be pricing power levels since a lot of this is more fee-based too.

這個問題可能與第一個問題有關，有助於 RIS 部分。所以我只是想確保我們對事情的思考是正確的。因此，當我們從宏觀層面思考 IRS 部門的整體有機成長時。通常，我們認為名目 GDP 是最大的推論，而定價能力水準則是次要的，因為其中許多也是基於費用的。

Would you agree with that kind of high-level statement because I'm trying to kind of think out the we can kind of have a view on pricing. You've helped us with a view on pricing. The nominal GDP decline is slighter. Just want to see if I'm missing anything maybe in terms of just talent hiring in the past or now or other --

您是否同意這種高層次的聲明，因為我正在嘗試思考我們可以對定價有何看法。您幫助我們了解了定價情況。名目GDP降幅較小。只是想看看我是否遺漏了什麼，可能是過去或現在的人才招募或其他方面--

Thanks for the question. No, I don't have any argument with the way you characterized it. I feel good about our execution. I feel good about how we're positioned. Our international growth was quite strong. What we're seeing here is in the United States, particularly upmarket and more of our large account segment, if you will, you're seeing businesses defer project work, right?

謝謝你的提問。不，我對你的描述方式沒有任何異議。我對我們的執行感到滿意。我對我們的定位感到滿意。我們的國際成長相當強勁。我們在美國看到的是，特別是高端市場和大客戶市場，你會看到企業延後專案工作，對嗎？

We're seeing a slowdown in construction activity, M&A activity, IPOs hiring has obviously slowed all those on some level are inputs. So we have a macro environment, it is what it is. We power through it. And continue to deliver solid results, but declining P&C pricing, slowing economic growth, interest rate headwinds with fiduciary interest income and moderating inflation as well, at least up until now.

我們看到建築活動、併購活動和 IPO 招募活動都在放緩，這些在某種程度上都是投入。所以我們有一個宏觀環境，它就是它。我們全力以赴。並繼續取得穩健的業績，但至少到目前為止，財產和意外險定價下降、經濟成長放緩、信託利息收入的利率逆風以及通膨放緩。

Obviously, that's a hot debate in the world. But Marsh and GC 5% ex bid, given some of those headwinds. I feel good about that.

顯然，這是世界各地熱議的話題。但考慮到一些不利因素，Marsh 和 GC 的出價為 5%。我對此感覺很好。

Got it. And my quick follow-up, and I feel like you started off the call, John saying performance track is kind of in line with the expectations overall. I feel like the beauty of Marsh historically and currently is that you guys have had good line of sight into your reps. So you've been able to pull the expense levers accordingly.

知道了。我快速跟進一下，我覺得你一開始打電話的時候，約翰就說績效軌跡大致上符合預期。我覺得 Marsh 過去和現在的魅力在於你們對自己的代表有很好的了解。因此，您可以相應地控制費用。

It sounds like from everything you're saying is there's obviously a lot of uncertainty, but you still feel like there's uncertainties at a level where you feel comfortable being able to manage the profit margin piece of the business. Is that fair?

從您所說的一切來看，顯然存在許多不確定性，但您仍然覺得存在不確定性，並且您能夠輕鬆地管理業務的利潤率部分。這樣公平嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. I appreciate that. I think there was a compliment in there. I think there was a bit of debate about our guidance about the top line coming into the year. We didn't obviously know exactly what would unfold during the course of the year, but we did expect lower interest rates, lower P&C pricing, slightly slower economy.

是的。謝謝，麥克。我很感激。我認為其中含有一種讚美。我認為，關於我們對今年營收的預期存在一些爭議。我們顯然不知道今年究竟會發生什麼，但我們確實預期利率會下降，財產和意外保險價格會下降，經濟會略微放緩。

Probably more uncertainty has persisted that's impacted some of the more discretionary parts of our business. But I feel good about the work we've done to again manage expense growth in a tighter environment. And we do a lot of scenario planning around tighter conditions. And by the way, we do scenario planning around more positive environments to where we're going to allocate capital if growth if growth is above what our expectations are.

可能仍然存在更多的不確定性，這影響了我們業務中一些更自由裁量的部分。但我對我們在更加緊張的環境下再次管理費用成長所做的工作感到滿意。我們針對更嚴格的條件做了許多情境規劃。順便說一句，我們會圍繞更積極的環境進行情境規劃，如果成長超出我們的預期，我們將在哪裡分配資本。

I expect these conditions to persist in the second half. We'll see obviously what unfolds. And 2026 will be a new year, right? A lot that's going to happen around trade and geopolitically over the course of the next six months. And then we'll see what the environment looks like as we head into next year. But I feel good about how we're positioned. I feel good about how we're executing.

我預計這些情況將在下半年持續下去。我們將會看到會發生什麼。2026 年將是新的一年，對嗎？未來六個月，貿易和地緣政治領域將發生很多事情。然後我們將看看明年的環境會是什麼樣子。但我對我們的定位感到滿意。我對我們的執行情況感到滿意。

We're continuing to invest. It gets a little tighter, obviously, at moments like this. And but we've consistently not only delivered margin expansion but invested in our business over time. And we try to get that balance right.

我們將繼續投資。顯然，在這樣的時刻，情況會變得更加緊張。但我們不僅持續擴大利潤率，而且一直在對我們的業務進行投資。我們盡力實現這種平衡。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

John, just on your comments on slowdown in IPOs and M&A. And obviously, your comps on growth have been tough as well. But just -- if we look at least capital markets activity, it seems like it's troughed already. And obviously, next month could be different, but it seems like IPOs are picking up, M&A is picking up as well. Are you seeing that in your business as well? And should we assume that your growth is close to troughing or is there still a lot of uncertainty throughout.

約翰，我只是想談談你對 IPO 和併購放緩的評論。顯然，你們的成長業績也很艱難。但如果我們至少看一下資本市場活動，似乎它已經觸底了。顯然，下個月的情況可能會有所不同，但 IPO 似乎正在回升，併購也在回升。您在自己的業務中也看到了這一點嗎？我們是否應該假設您的成長已接近谷底，或者是否仍存在許多不確定性。

Jimmy, I mean, M&A and IPOs are obviously just a component of a much more complex macro picture. We said we continue to expect mid-single-digit underlying revenue growth in 18th year margin expansion and solid growth in adjusted EPS. And so we feel good about that outlook. We'll see as things move forward. There's -- again, I think we see it a bit more defensive posture in US businesses today, really trying to find a leveling of -- it's always uncertain, right?

吉米，我的意思是，併購和 IPO 顯然只是更複雜的宏觀圖像的一個組成部分。我們表示，我們繼續預計第 18 年利潤率擴張中基礎收入將實現中等個位數成長，調整後每股收益將實現穩健成長。因此我們對這一前景感到樂觀。我們將觀察事情的進展。再說一次，我認為我們今天看到美國企業採取了更多的防禦姿態，確實試圖找到一個平衡點——這總是不確定的，對吧？

I mean I think that word has probably been overused, including by myself during the course of this year. There's never certainty, but the level of uncertainty has been challenging for many of our clients. We're trying to help them navigate that. And that's an opportunity, as I mentioned. But we'll see. I think it's too early to know whether we'll see a meaningful uptick in M&A activity or IPO, for that matter, construction as well. Do you have a follow-up.

我的意思是，我認為這個詞可能被過度使用了，包括我自己在今年也這樣使用過。從來沒有確定性，但不確定性的程度對我們的許多客戶來說都是一個挑戰。我們正在努力幫助他們解決這個問題。正如我所提到的，這是一個機會。但我們會看到。我認為現在判斷併購活動或 IPO 是否會出現有意義的上升還為時過早，就此而言，建築業也是如此。您有後續訊息嗎？

Yes, just relatedly on Guy Carpenter. The growth was fairly strong given tough comps. Is that more -- and that's despite a soft pricing environment. Is that more a function of just the fact that it's a low base? Or is the momentum in your business better than what pricing would suggest in reinsurance?

是的，與 Guy Carpenter 有關。考慮到嚴峻的競爭形勢，成長勢頭相當強勁。這是否更多——儘管定價環境疲軟。這是否只是因為基數較低？或者您的業務發展勢頭是否比再保險定價所暗示的要好？

I'll ask Dean just to talk about the growth in the quarter, but I think we have the best team on the field, the best analytics in the business. And ultimately, it's a reflection of the confidence that our clients have in our ability to deliver value. But Dean, maybe you can talk a little bit about growth in the quarter for Jimmy.

我會請迪恩談談本季的成長情況，但我認為我們擁有該領域最好的團隊，以及業界最好的分析能力。最終，這反映了客戶對我們提供價值的能力的信心。但是迪恩，也許你可以為吉米談談本季的成長情況。

Yes. Thanks, John. Jimmy, look, we're pleased with our 5% growth in the quarter, as John noted. And as Mark noted, came on top of 11% growth in the second quarter of 2024, and it was a record new business quarter in the second quarter of 2024. As respect to this quarter, we saw really strong growth across our international platform, exceptional growth in Latin America, exceptional growth in EMEA strong growth in the London market in the UK, strong growth in Asia despite clear pricing headwinds in Japan and China on the April 1 renewal.

是的。謝謝，約翰。吉米，你看，正如約翰所說，我們對本季 5% 的成長感到滿意。正如馬克所指出的，2024 年第二季的成長率為 11%，創下了 2024 年第二季新業務創紀錄的紀錄。就本季而言，我們的國際平台實現了真正強勁的成長，拉丁美洲實現了非凡的成長，歐洲、中東和非洲地區實現了非凡的成長，英國倫敦市場實現了強勁的成長，儘管 4 月 1 日續約時日本和中國面臨明顯的定價阻力，但亞洲仍實現了強勁的成長。

New business is very strong. I mean it's strong and it's balanced across our platform. As John noted, significant ILS activity, record cat bond growth in the quarter. Guy Carpenter participated in 14 cat bond issuances in the quarter and 23% year-to-date, which is a record for Guy Carpenter. We continue to see new opportunities in our capital and advisory practice.

新業務非常強勁。我的意思是它很強大並且在我們的平台上平衡。正如約翰所指出的，ILS 活動顯著，本季巨災債券成長創下紀錄。Guy Carpenter 本季參與了 14 筆巨災債券的發行，年初至今參與率為 23%，創下了 Guy Carpenter 的最高紀錄。我們在資本和諮詢實踐中不斷看到新的機會。

In the quarter, we won several mandates to raise third-party capital for clients large and small in the US and London a number of well-known MGAs in particular. And we're winning M&A mandates, providing M&A advice and supporting activities for a number of those clients. And then I would say last -- one of the headlines is property cat demand did ease up at the mid-year renewal.

本季度，我們贏得了多項授權，為美國和倫敦的大小客戶（尤其是一些知名的 MGAs）籌集第三方資本。我們贏得了併購委託，為許多客戶提供併購建議和支援活動。最後我想說的是──其中一個頭條新聞是，在年中續保時，財產險需求確實有所緩解。

We sold an additional $5 billion of property cat limit through the mid-year renewals, helping to drive the top line. And we feel really good about our talent. As John noted, we're attracting top talent in the market, and we've got a great balanced organization. We feel good about our prospects.

我們透過年中續約額外出售了 50 億美元的財產險限額，幫助推動了營業收入的成長。我們對自己的才華感到非常滿意。正如約翰所說，我們正在吸引市場上的頂尖人才，並且我們擁有一個非常平衡的組織。我們對我們的前景感到樂觀。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

I'm wondering -- I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit about the strength within Marsh & International overall and how durable you think it is. I heard the pricing was negative in a lot of the regions, but the growth continues to be to be solid. How long do you think that can sustain?

我想知道——您是否可以簡單談談 Marsh & International 的整體實力以及您認為它的持久力。我聽說很多地區的定價都是負數，但成長仍然保持穩健。您認為這可以持續多久？

Yes. Thanks, David, and I'll ask Martin maybe to talk a little bit about growth. But again, overall, I was pleased with the growth at Marsh in the quarter. You mentioned the pricing headwinds, but some other macro headwinds as well. And I feel good about executing -- our execution in this environment. We're in many markets, doing it in different ways, but building our capabilities in the middle market around the world.

是的。謝謝，大衛，我想請馬丁談談成長問題。但總體而言，我對 Marsh 本季的成長感到滿意。您提到了定價方面的不利因素，但也提到了一些其他宏觀不利因素。我對我們在這種環境下的執行感到很滿意。我們進入了許多市場，以不同的方式開展業務，但我們正在全球中端市場建立我們的能力。

That's part of the growth, but we're well positioned and well led outside of the US Martin, maybe you could talk a little bit about the growth in the quarter?

這是成長的一部分，但我們在美國以外的市場定位良好，並且處於領先地位。馬丁，您能否談談本季的成長情況？

Thank you, John. Yes, very pleased with our international growth in the quarter, 7% on top of 7% in 2Q '24, really strong new business growth across the whole business. EMEA was up 8% on top of 7% in second quarter '24 Asia Pacific, up 4% on top of 7% in the second quarter '24. Latin America, 3% on top 9%. So very strong geographic growth. And I'll dig into some of the capabilities as well.

謝謝你，約翰。是的，我們對本季的國際成長感到非常滿意，在 2024 年第二季 7% 的基礎上又成長了 7%，整個業務的新業務成長非常強勁。歐洲、中東和非洲地區在 2024 年第二季成長 8%，高於 2024 年第二季的 7%；亞太地區在 2024 年第二季成長 4%，高於 2024 年第二季的 7%。拉丁美洲，佔前 9% 的 3%。地理區域成長非常強勁。我也會深入研究其中的一些功能。

We had a really good quarter in construction activity around the business. our credit specialties grew. Cyber, despite rate decreases, saw strong growth and penetration to our clients as people, particularly internationally, realized the risk posed by cyber. Our FINPRO business grew and capital markets business across international was stronger than in North America.

本季度，我們的業務建築活動表現非常好。我們的信貸專長也得到了發展。儘管網路風險有所下降，但隨著人們（尤其是國際上的人們）意識到網路風險，我們的客戶仍然實現了強勁成長和滲透。我們的 FINPRO 業務實現了成長，國際資本市場業務比北美更強勁。

But really, one of the standouts was our benefits business, which continues to show real strength and momentum. And then geographically, really pleasing in some of the areas where we've allocated capital and feel we're really well positioned. Japan, India, United Emirates, Brazil, Italy, Spain, China, all showing really strong growth. So we feel we have a great momentum.

但實際上，最突出的是我們的福利業務，它繼續顯示出真正的實力和發展勢頭。從地理位置上看，我們確實在一些地區分配了資金，感覺我們的位置非常有利。日本、印度、阿聯酋、巴西、義大利、西班牙、中國都展現出強勁的成長動能。因此我們感覺我們擁有強大的發展勢頭。

The capabilities that we have across international really differentiate ourselves against any of the local players, and we have the best and the strongest network that is also able to serve the US business and other international businesses that we have. So we are highly differentiated, where we operate. And we have leading positions in virtually every market that we operate in across international. So we feel really good about it.

我們在國際上的能力確實使我們與任何本地參與者區分開來，我們擁有最好和最強大的網絡，能夠為美國業務和其他國際業務提供服務。因此，我們的經營活動有高度的差異化。我們在國際上經營的幾乎每個市場都佔據領先地位。所以我們對此感覺非常好。

Thanks, Martin. David, do you have a follow-up?

謝謝，馬丁。大衛，你還有後續消息嗎？

Yes. I was just more of a big picture question, and you sort of talked about this in a few of the different segments, just the difference between some of the trends that you're seeing in some of the more discretionary and project-based parts of the business compared to the more durable, more renewal oriented businesses. Could you just level set us the business mix has changed for a while? How much of the revenue base at Marsh is exposed to that more discretionary or project-based spend?

是的。我只是想問一個更宏觀的問題，你在幾個不同的部分都談到了這個問題，只是你在一些更具自由裁量權和基於專案的業務部分與更持久、更注重更新的業務中看到的一些趨勢之間的差異。您能否為我們簡單介紹一下業務組合已經發生了哪些變化？達信集團的收入基礎中有多少是受到這些更具自由裁量權或基於專案的支出的影響？

Yes. David, that's a hard question to answer. I think all $25 billion on some level is -- last year's numbers are exposed to the economy. Obviously, we have a defensive and resilient business. Demand remains quite strong. Pat talked about some aspects of our career business that are a bit more exposed to the economy than others.

是的。大衛，這個問題很難回答。我認為從某種程度上來說，250 億美元是去年的數字，與經濟狀況有關。顯然，我們的業務具有防禦性和彈性。需求仍然相當強勁。帕特談到了我們職業業務中一些比其他方面更容易受到經濟影響的方面。

I mean, when we take a look at it, it's probably 15% to 20% or so of our revenue base is the right expression, even more exposed to softer moments of the economy. And we're in this interesting moment, right? I mean the economy is okay. It's not like, but we have in certain segments of our business, seeing softer conditions just from a challenging environment where uncertainty is driving a defensive posture from some of our clients.

我的意思是，當我們看一下時，它可能占我們收入基礎的 15% 到 20% 左右，這是正確的說法，甚至更容易受到經濟疲軟時期的影響。我們正處於這個有趣的時刻，對吧？我的意思是經濟狀況還不錯。事實並非如此，但是，在我們業務的某些領域，我們看到在充滿挑戰的環境中情況有所好轉，其中的不確定性導致我們的一些客戶採取了防禦姿態。

Maybe David, it would be helpful. Maybe I'll ask Nick to talk a little bit about our growth in Oliver Wyman overall in the quarter and maybe where you see more resilience in some of the softer parts of the OW offerings?

也許大衛，這會有所幫助。也許我會請尼克談談本季奧緯諮詢 (Oliver Wyman) 的整體成長情況，以及您是否認為 OW 產品中一些較軟的部分更具彈性？

Yes, absolutely. Thank you, and Pat touched on the career business, maybe a sort of complement to that. We always guide that one will be a mid- to high single-digit growth business through the cycle. And you all know that it has probably a wider range of growth as you go through that cycle. And I think we're extremely happy with how we've executed in a slower market.

是的，絕對是。謝謝，帕特談到了職業事務，也許是對此的一種補充。我們始終引導企業在整個週期中實現中高個位數成長。大家都知道，隨著這個週期的推進，它的成長範圍可能會更大。我認為我們對於在低迷的市場中的表現感到非常滿意。

There were some timing and other idiosyncratic effects that slightly dampened Q2. But what we're seeing, there are many different drivers to our business. We're seeing positive trends like John talked at the beginning about the hunt for growth at the same time as efficiency and the need to invest in resilience. Many companies are finding that challenging.

一些時機和其他特殊因素略微抑制了第二季的表現。但我們看到，我們的業務有許多不同的驅動因素。我們看到了積極的趨勢，就像約翰一開始所說的那樣，在追求效率的同時追求成長，並需要投資於彈性。許多公司都發現這項挑戰。

We're supporting many clients as they explore their AI strategies and what that does for their business, changes in supply chain, the challenges of the energy transition. These are all positive trends supporting growth in the business that's balanced at the moment. Back to Jimmy's question, we have seen lower M&A. So some of our private capital work, some of the work we do in economic consulting, is affected by that.

我們支持許多客戶探索他們的人工智慧策略及其對他們的業務、供應鏈變化和能源轉型挑戰的影響。這些都是支持當前業務平衡成長的正面趨勢。回到吉米的問題，我們看到併購活動減少。因此，我們的一些私人資本工作、一些經濟諮詢工作都受到了影響。

And we are seeing client uncertainty. I don't want to further overviews John's word. But when lots of things change, there's a need for strategic advice. When people are not sure if things are going to change, they wait for a little while. And then we are seeing some of that as well. We also see on the supply side continued excess capacity working its way out of some parts of the consulting industry.

我們看到客戶的不確定性。我不想進一步概述約翰的話。但當很多事情發生變化時，就需要策略建議。當人們不確定事情是否會改變時，他們會等待一段時間。然後我們也看到了一些這樣的情況。我們也看到，在供應方面，諮詢業的部分領域產能過剩現象正在持續顯現。

But as a whole, we're happy with the execution. As Mark noted, the Americas grew strongly. That was our fastest-growing region. Europe has done a good job of replacing some very large cloud programs, which have rolled off. The Middle East has done a great job of diversifying what has been a slowdown in the Saudi Arabian market but we're very broad across that region.

但總體而言，我們對執行情況感到滿意。正如馬克所指出的，美洲地區成長強勁。那是我們發展最快的地區。歐洲在替換一些非常大的雲端專案方面做得很好，這些專案已經順利完成。中東在多元化沙烏地阿拉伯市場放緩方面做得很好，但我們在該地區的業務範圍非常廣泛。

On the industry side, insurance and asset management and our actuarial practice grew, again, well diversified businesses. We have actuarial consulting in life in P&C and in health, all of which grew strongly. Our consumer telecoms and tech practices and our transportation and advanced industrial practices grew. So in the past, you may have heard me talking about other parts of Oliver Wyman.

在行業方面，保險和資產管理以及我們的精算業務再次實現了業務多元化。我們在人壽、財產意外和健康險領域提供精算諮詢服務，這些領域均實現了強勁成長。我們的消費者電信和技術實踐以及我們的運輸和先進工業實踐都在成長。因此，過去您可能聽過我談論奧緯諮詢的其他部分。

It's a very diversified business. And maybe just to echo some of the comments that Dean and Martin and Pat have all made, our pipeline of sales remains solid. We're very comfortable in our ability to manage the cost base. And we continue to find ourselves being an incredibly attractive home for established top talent in the industry who are eager to help build a new leader in strategy consulting, un-incumbent by some of the challenges of previous models.

這是一項高度多元化的業務。也許只是為了呼應 Dean、Martin 和 Pat 所發表的一些評論，我們的銷售管道依然穩固。我們對自己管理成本基礎的能力感到非常滿意。我們繼續發現自己對業界頂尖人才具有極大的吸引力，他們渴望幫助打造策略諮詢領域的新領導者，擺脫以前模式所面臨的一些挑戰。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

First is on just some of the rising medical costs that we're hearing about out there. I think a few companies have kind of cited it and changed guidance in the health insurance world. And just was interested if you could take us through some of the ways that impacts your business from a pricing standpoint and so forth.

首先，我們聽到的是關於醫療費用上漲的一些消息。我認為一些公司已經引用了這一點並改變了健康保險領域的指導方針。我很感興趣您是否可以從定價的角度向我們介紹哪些因素會影響您的業務。

Thanks, Alex, and good morning to you as well. I mean health care overall is an important part of our business. The biggest component of that, overwhelmingly, the component of our business is really helping our clients secure employee-sponsored health insurance and that enables them, of course, to compete for talent.

謝謝，亞歷克斯，你早安。我的意思是，整體醫療保健是我們業務的重要組成部分。其中最重要的部分，也是我們業務的絕大部分部分，實際上是幫助我們的客戶獲得員工贊助的健康保險，這當然使他們能夠競爭人才。

Medical inflation is a stress point on the one hand, extraordinary medical innovation happening, specialty pharma is an important part of the medical inflation calculation right now. So it's great innovation, but it's creating stress for our clients. We see it again in our own business. rising health care costs, particularly here in the United States.

一方面，醫療通膨是一個壓力點，非凡的醫療創新正在發生，專業製藥是目前醫療通膨計算的重要組成部分。所以這是一項偉大的創新，但它給我們的客戶帶來了壓力。我們在自己的業務中再次看到這種情況。醫療保健成本不斷上升，尤其是在美國。

We also, at both Mercer and Oliver Wyman consult to the health care industry and helping them sort through some of the innovation, some of the challenges and complexities of the marketplace, some of the challenges around pharmacy benefit management as an example. So all are important parts of our business. Much of the employee-sponsored business that we support operates more on a fee or fee like basis.

我們也在 Mercer 和 Oliver Wyman 為醫療保健產業提供諮詢，幫助他們理清一些創新、一些市場挑戰和複雜性，例如一些圍繞藥品福利管理的挑戰。所以所有這些都是我們業務的重要組成部分。我們支持的大部分員工贊助業務更多是以收費或類似收費的方式運營的。

So we're obviously thoughtful and transparent about how we get paid with our clients in a challenging environment. Pat, do you have anything to add to that?

因此，在充滿挑戰的環境中，我們對如何向客戶收取報酬顯然是深思熟慮和透明的。派特，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think you've hit it right there, John. I mean the key thing to remember is that in different -- around the world, we have different models around fee and commission. For the most part, most of our business in the US, which is a pretty large business is predominantly fixed. We don't see the full impact of inflation from that. It clearly drives demand for work because medical inflation is a major challenge for clients.

不，我認為你說對了，約翰。我的意思是要記住的關鍵是，在世界各地，我們有不同的費用和佣金模式。在大多數情況下，我們在美國的業務（這是一個相當大的業務）主要是固定資產。我們還沒有看到通貨膨脹的全部影響。它顯然推動了工作需求，因為醫療通膨對客戶來說是一個重大挑戰。

So they're going to go ahead and think about how to do more projects and how to do planned design work to control those costs. But you really can't draw the correlation between 5.8% or 7.2% or 10% medical inflation and commissions. For the most part, on the majority of our client base. We do have some clients that are commission-based, but I would say, especially in the US, the majority are more fixed rate.

因此，他們將繼續思考如何進行更多專案以及如何進行規劃設計工作來控制這些成本。但你真的無法在 5.8% 或 7.2% 或 10% 的醫療通膨和佣金之間建立關聯。在大多數情況下，我們的大多數客戶都是如此。我們確實有一些基於佣金的客戶，但我想說，特別是在美國，大多數都是固定利率。

Yes, thanks, Alex, for that question. It's a big part of our business, and it's a really important part of it. So -- and it's had strong growth over the course of the last couple of years. And I think, again, that's a reflection of the capabilities that we can bring to the clients in that inflationary environment. Do you have a follow-up?

是的，謝謝你，亞歷克斯，提出這個問題。這是我們業務的重要組成部分，也是非常重要的一部分。所以 — — 過去幾年它一直保持強勁增長。我認為，這再次反映了我們在通膨環境下能為客戶帶來的能力。你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. So separate follow-up. I wanted to ask you about just technology implementation of AI, et cetera. I mean, I know some of the stuff is probably still in reasonably early phase, but it seems like this could have a pretty big impact over the next year, especially on businesses that are more service-oriented. I just wanted to see where your head was at on it.

是的。因此單獨進行後續行動。我想問您有關人工智慧的技術實施等等的問題。我的意思是，我知道有些東西可能仍處於相當早期的階段，但這似乎會在明年產生相當大的影響，特別是對那些更注重服務的企業。我只是想看看你對此有何看法。

I mean how big of a change do you think it will be? What are the impacts that you'd expect us to actually be able to see in the financials and so forth? And what would change the industry and your point of view from a consolidation standpoint?

我的意思是您認為它會發生多大的變化？您希望我們在財務等方面實際看到什麼影響？從整合的角度來看，什麼會改變產業和您的觀點？

I'm excited about the possibilities, Alex. We're starting to see more clearly into what some of those possibilities are. I've talked in the past about moving more quickly, creating efficiency, creating better insights I think our technology team has done an outstanding job providing us the tools to learn and to experiment.

我對這些可能性感到很興奮，亞歷克斯。我們開始更清楚地了解其中的一些可能性。我過去曾談到要更快行動、提高效率、創造更好的洞察力，我認為我們的技術團隊做得非常出色，為我們提供了學習和實驗的工具。

Our tech team and our colleagues and our people function have put together broad-based training and support for our colleagues. I'm encouraged by our cultural response to these tools. We have a learning culture and a professional services firm, that's really important, and I think this is indicative of that. They're embracing the tools. And so we're starting to see some early signs and some breakthroughs.

我們的技術團隊、同事和人員職能部門為我們的同事提供了廣泛的培訓和支援。我們的文化對這些工具的反應令我感到鼓舞。我們擁有學習文化和專業服務公司，這非常重要，我認為這證明了這一點。他們正在擁抱這些工具。因此，我們開始看到一些早期跡象和一些突破。

We -- one of the areas where we've had some more recent changes in analytics, and maybe I'll ask our business leaders to just talk quickly about some of the things we've done, Pat, maybe I'll start with you. We're obviously working our way through internally on a tool earlier this week. But how is it impacting analytics and what you see in terms of what we're offering to clients today and how it's changing.

我們——這是我們最近在分析方面發生一些變化的領域之一，也許我會請我們的業務領導者快速談談我們所做的一些事情，帕特，也許我會從你開始。本週早些時候，我們顯然正在內部研究一種工具。但它如何影響分析？就我們今天向客戶提供的產品而言，您看到了什麼？它是如何變化的？

Yes. I think the biggest area where it's impacting is, first off, we think it's going to create demand, especially on some of our career product side. And I would think we would enhance it into the other areas from a product perspective. We're introducing agentic AI interfaces into our product offerings that are going to allow clients to interact with the data and the products in an enhanced way.

是的。我認為它影響最大的領域是，首先，我們認為它將創造需求，特別是在我們的一些職業產品方面。我認為我們會從產品角度將其增強到其他領域。我們正在將代理 AI 介面引入到我們的產品中，以便客戶以增強的方式與資料和產品互動。

It will allow them to make it easier to get more value. We expect that would increase demand. A specific example that we've got is we're adding agentic AI interface that we call AiEDA on our talent all access portal, which is something that we have out with more than 20,000 users out in the client world. So it's really where they're going to have access to our worldwide benefit and employment guideline database.

這將使他們更容易獲得更多價值。我們預計這會增加需求。一個具體的例子是，我們在人才全訪問入口網站上添加了代理 AI 介面（我們稱之為 AiEDA），這是我們在客戶世界中為超過 20,000 名用戶提供的服務。因此，他們實際上可以存取我們的全球福利和就業指南資料庫。

It's going to update the user experience and really clients to query the database live versus use it in a more traditional way that they've typically had access to it. So we're really optimistic about the benefits that we'll bring to clients.

它將更新用戶體驗，並真正讓客戶即時查詢資料庫，而不是以通常訪問資料庫的更傳統的方式使用它。因此，我們對將為客戶帶來的利益非常樂觀。

Nick, do you want to jump in quick?

尼克，你想快點加入嗎？

Yes. I mean, 25% to 30% of our work rests on advanced analytics and AI. We've been doing that for a very long time, and GenAI has obviously turbocharged that further and then Oliver Wyman has incredibly strong capabilities to support clients on their own AI journey. I think 95% of our clients see as opportunity rather than threat.

是的。我的意思是，我們 25% 到 30% 的工作依賴高階分析和人工智慧。我們已經這樣做了很長一段時間，GenAI 顯然進一步推動了這一進程，而 Oliver Wyman 則擁有非常強大的能力來支持客戶進行自己的 AI 之旅。我認為 95% 的客戶將其視為機會而不是威脅。

So everything from supporting governments and their national AI program offices through the helping clients build new businesses through the reengineering processes like the ones you described. And you mentioned consolidation. I do think in the advisory business, scale helps here and the fact that Oliver Wyman is part of Marsh & McLennan have access to our fantastic set of tools and buying power and so on is a real advantage for us compared to midsized consulting firms.

因此，從支援政府及其國家人工智慧計畫辦公室到幫助客戶透過您所描述的流程重組來建立新業務，一切都包括在內。您提到了合併。我確實認為，在諮詢業務中，規模是有幫助的，而且奧緯諮詢是 Marsh & McLennan 的一部分，可以使用我們出色的工具和購買力等，這對我們來說與中型諮詢公司相比是一個真正的優勢。

Thanks Nick. Martin?

謝謝尼克。馬丁？

Just building on that point there, one of our leading analytics rollouts last year, our Centrist portal has been built heavily using AI to get in deep into company supply chains. We had a fantastic quarter last year, rolling that out. Our clients are very excited about it given all the tariff disruption, what's happening in weather, climate geopolitics giving clients visibility and productivity into those tools is game changing for us.

基於這一點，我們去年推出了一項領先的分析技術，我們的 Centrist 入口網站大量使用了人工智慧來深入了解公司供應鏈。去年一個季度，我們表現出色，實現了這個目標。考慮到所有關稅中斷、天氣變化、氣候地緣政治等因素，我們的客戶對此感到非常興奮，讓客戶能夠看到並提高這些工具的生產力，這對我們來說是改變遊戲規則的。

And we're uniquely positioned on that. All of our Blue[i] Suite of analytics, which are built on unique data. We have $1.12 trillion of premium that we've analyzed and over $100 billion of claims are in our databases that gives us a unique insight into that. And most recently, one of the AI tools that we've done is we've laid over an agentic tool over our claims database.

我們在這方面有獨特的優勢。我們所有的 Blue[i] 分析套件都是基於獨特的數據構建的。我們已經分析了 1.12 兆美元的保費，並且我們的資料庫中有超過 1000 億美元的索賠，這讓我們對此有了獨特的見解。最近，我們開發的人工智慧工具之一是在索賠資料庫上部署代理工具。

And so clients can interrogate that, we can track comparators between how insurance companies pay their claims over which space, which puts us in a good position to negotiate great terms for them. We can see the latest trends in claims and overlaid that with premium. It's a very powerful tool. And so not only do we have great tools, but we've got great underlying data.

因此客戶可以詢問這一點，我們可以追蹤比較保險公司在哪個領域支付索賠的方式，這使我們能夠為他們協商有利的條款。我們可以看到索賠的最新趨勢，並將其與保費疊加。這是一個非常強大的工具。因此，我們不僅擁有出色的工具，而且還擁有出色的基礎數據。

We think that's a huge moat around our business that had been very difficult for startups with technology to compete with. So we feel very well positioned. It's the tip of the spear in how we approach our clients around cost of risk and thinking about the future of risk more broadly. So we can upend the paradigm of just being tied to GDP, which is not how we see things.

我們認為這是我們業務周圍的一道巨大護城河，對於擁有科技的新創公司來說，很難與之競爭。因此我們覺得自己的定位非常有利。這是我們如何與客戶溝通風險成本以及更廣泛地思考風險的未來的關鍵。因此，我們可以顛覆僅僅與 GDP 掛鉤的範式，但這並不是我們看待事物的方式。

We think risk is growing and we need real insights from our tools and across our businesses, we are incredibly well positioned with what we have.

我們認為風險正在成長，我們需要從我們的工具和整個業務中獲得真正的洞察力，我們擁有的資源已處於非常有利的地位。

Dean, any thoughts on Guy Carpenter?

迪恩，對蓋伊·卡彭特有什麼看法？

Yes. Alex, certainly, Guy Carpenter's analytics platform might be the most important thing we do for clients, bringing value to our clients beyond the reinsurance transaction and we really think our analytics platform is what differentiates us and our clients' eyes as they spend all their focus, managing volatility in this environment, thinking about profitable growth and maximizing capital efficiency.

是的。亞歷克斯，當然，Guy Carpenter 的分析平台可能是我們為客戶做的最重要的事情，它為我們的客戶帶來了超越再保險交易的價值，我們真的認為我們的分析平台是我們和客戶眼中的不同之處，因為他們將所有註意力都集中在管理這種環境中的波動性、思考盈利增長和最大化資本效率上。

I think the greatest application for AI in our sector will be managing the impact of client change. Our clients want to know and they want to help them -- want us to help them manage catastrophe risk moving forward, looking at their portfolios, providing advice, helping them model future climate change impact building proprietary models using AI. That will be the true differentiator for Guy Carpenter as we try to support our clients.

我認為人工智慧在我們這個領域最大的應用將是管理客戶變化的影響。我們的客戶想要了解並幫助他們——希望我們幫助他們管理未來的災難風險，審查他們的投資組合，提供建議，幫助他們模擬未來氣候變遷的影響，並使用人工智慧建立專有模型。當我們嘗試為客戶提供支援時，這將成為 Guy Carpenter 的真正差異化因素。

Thanks, Dean. So Alex, I'm encouraged, but it is still early to be clear. But our unique data sets, our capacity to invest and the progress we've made so far, I'm encouraged, and I feel good about how we're positioned.

謝謝，迪恩。所以亞歷克斯，我很受鼓舞，但現在下結論還太早。但我們獨特的數據集、我們的投資能力以及我們迄今為止的進展讓我感到鼓舞，我對我們的定位感到滿意。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲（Meyer Shields），KBW。

Two quick questions, if I can. First, John, you talked obviously about the pressure on the litigation system. Do clients appreciate that in terms of seeking additional cover? I know they're paying more for what they're getting. But is there more demand for protection?

如果可以的話，我問兩個簡單的問題。首先，約翰，你顯然談到了訴訟系統的壓力。客戶是否瞭解並願意尋求額外的保障？我知道他們為了得到的東西付出了更多的錢。但對保護的需求是否更大？

Yes, it's a great question, Mary. I think in this economic environment, and I talked about the work Oliver Wyman has done with the New York Stock Exchange. Many businesses are here in the US are trying to grind out earnings growth in a slower top-line growth environment, right? So we're not seeing big take-up. What I can tell you we're saying to our clients, though, is that you can't buy enough excess liability insurance in this environment.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，瑪麗。我認為在這種經濟環境下，我談到了奧緯諮詢與紐約證券交易所所做的工作。美國的許多企業都在努力在營收成長放緩的環境中實現獲利成長，對嗎？因此，我們沒有看到大規模的採用。不過，我可以告訴你們，我們對客戶說的是，在這種環境下，你不可能購買足夠的超額責任保險。

Of course, not all clients are the same. Many are more exposed to this than others. And so there are some real challenges that many are confronting. And when we talk to them about whether it's nuclear verdicts or even outside of nuclear verdicts and just the rising frequency and severity in kind of more standard areas of risk.

當然，並非所有客戶都是一樣的。許多人比其他人更容易受到這種影響。因此，許多人都面臨著一些真正的挑戰。當我們與他們談論核裁決，甚至核裁決之外的問題時，他們談論的只是更標準的風險領域的發生頻率和嚴重程度的上升。

It's an eye-opening discussion. The nuclear verdict thing, many will maybe try to say, Hey, it's not us couldn't happen here kind of thing. But our concern when we look at our portfolio is that it's just happening with too much for frequency across our economy here in the US. Do you have a follow-up here.

這是一次令人大開眼界的討論。對於核裁決的事情，很多人可能會說，嘿，這不是我們這裡不可能發生的事。但當我們審視自己的投資組合時，我們擔心的是，這種情況在美國經濟中發生得太頻繁了。您在這裡有後續訊息嗎？

That's very helpful. Yes. Just a quick one. So Latin America organic growth slowed a little bit. I'm wondering, is that uncertainty? Or is it that the flip side of tariffs translating into deflation in markets in the US, is there any way of distinguishing that?

這非常有幫助。是的。只是快速的。因此拉丁美洲的有機成長略有放緩。我想知道，這是不確定性嗎？或者說關稅的另一面會轉化為美國市場的通貨緊縮，有什麼辦法可以區分嗎？

No. We had some idiosyncratic issues in Latin America. Growth there year-to-date is good. We feel good about how we're positioned. So no, I don't -- I wouldn't draw any major conclusions from macros there. There's a big protection gap in Latin America, and that's an area of opportunity for us in our risk business. So it was 1 quarter, I wouldn't draw any major conclusions for that.

不。我們在拉丁美洲遇到了一些特殊的問題。今年迄今為止，那裡的成長情況良好。我們對自己的定位感到滿意。所以不，我不會——我不會從那裡的宏中得出任何重大結論。拉丁美洲存在巨大的保護缺口，這對我們的風險業務來說是一個機會領域。所以這只是一個季度，我不會因此得出任何重大結論。

We -- again, we have excellent teams in many of the -- in all of the big economies throughout Latin America. And so we're quite bullish on our prospects there. Andrew, let's bring the call to a close here. I want to thank everyone for joining us on the call this morning. I also want to thank our colleagues for their hard work and dedication.

我們——再次強調，我們在拉丁美洲所有大型經濟體中都擁有優秀的團隊。因此，我們對那裡的前景非常樂觀。安德魯，我們的通話就到此結束吧。我要感謝今天早上參加電話會議的各位。我還要感謝我們的同事的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。

And of course, I want to thank our clients for their continued support and confidence in our team. Thank you all very much, and I look forward to speaking with you next quarter.

當然，我還要感謝客戶對我們團隊的持續支持與信任。非常感謝大家，我期待下個季度與你們交談。