億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO.

下午好，感謝各位的到來。今天陪同我出席的有我們的董事長兼執行長德克·范德普特先生，以及我們的財務長盧卡·扎拉梅拉先生。

Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides, which are available on our website.

今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿和演示文稿，這些內容可以在我們的網站上找到。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K, Q and 8-K filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將就公司績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們目前的判斷。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。有關前瞻性陳述的更多詳情，請參閱我們提交的10-K、Q和8-K文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。

As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results. In addition, we provide our year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, unless otherwise noted. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

今天在討論績效時，除非另有說明，我們將使用非公認會計準則（非GAAP）財務指標，這些指標已對公認會計準則（GAAP）業績中包含的某些項目進行了調整。此外，除非另有說明，我們將以固定匯率為基礎提供年增率資料。您可以在獲利報告和簡報末尾找到相應的公認會計準則指標以及公認會計準則與非公認會計準則的調節表。

Today, Dirk will provide a business and strategy update, followed by a review of our financial results and outlook by Luca. We will close with Q&A.

今天，Dirk將帶來業務和策略方面的最新進展，隨後Luca將回顧我們的財務業績和展望。最後是問答環節。

I'll now turn the call over to Dirk.

現在我將把電話交給德克。

Thank you, Shep, and thanks to everyone for joining the call today. I will start on Slide 4.

謝謝謝普，也謝謝今天參加電話會議的各位。我將從第四張投影片開始。

I'm pleased to share that 2024 is off to a solid start with strong profit delivery. We posted solid top line results in the first quarter, coupled with strong earnings and free cash flow generation. We continue to see momentum in emerging markets where consumer confidence remains strong and our categories remain resilient. There were a number of one-off factors that affected our sales in the quarter such as the disruption with some of our European clients and the boycott of Western products in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

我很高興地宣布，2024年開局穩健，獲利強勁。第一季度，我們實現了穩健的營收成長，同時獲利和自由現金流也表現良好。新興市場持續維持成長勢頭，消費者信心依然強勁，我們的產品類別也展現出韌性。本季度，一些一次性因素影響了我們的銷售，例如部分歐洲客戶的業務中斷，以及中東和東南亞地區對西方產品的抵制。

We delivered another quarter of strong gross profit dollar growth through ongoing cost discipline and sound pricing. And we also continued our track record of strong free cash flow generation of more than $1 billion this quarter.

透過持續的成本控制和合理的定價策略，我們實現了另一個季度強勁的毛利成長。同時，本季我們也延續了強勁的自由現金流記錄，超過10億美元。

To accelerate our strategy of global snacking leadership and drive sustainable long-term growth, we are continuing to invest significantly in our brands and capabilities, driving distribution gains and harnessing synergies from our recently acquired assets.

為了加速我們成為全球零食產業領導者的策略，並推動永續的長期成長，我們將繼續大力投資我們的品牌和能力，推動分銷管道的拓展，並利用我們最近收購的資產的協同效應。

While our operating environment remains challenging and dynamic, our teams are focused and agile in dealing with the short term as well as executing against our long-term growth strategy. While surprising, but temporary, the cocoa inflation does not affect the fact that our categories remain durable and our growth opportunities remain sizable.

儘管我們的經營環境依然充滿挑戰且瞬息萬變，但我們的團隊專注且靈活，既能應對短期挑戰，又能有效執行長期成長策略。可可價格上漲雖然出乎意料，但只是暫時的，這並不影響我們產品類別的穩健發展和仍然巨大的成長潛力。

Turning to Slide 5. You can see that organic net revenue grew 4.2% this quarter with adjusted gross profit dollar growth of 11.6%, enabling us to continue investing in the business.

請看第 5 張投影片。您可以看到，本季有機淨收入成長了 4.2%，調整後毛利成長了 11.6%，使我們能夠繼續投資於業務。

We continue to increase our A&C spending year-over-year in the high single digits, which is driving consumer and customer loyalty for our iconic global brands as well as our local jewels.

我們持續以接近兩位數的速度逐年提高廣告和廣告支出，這提高了消費者和客戶對我們標誌性全球品牌以及本地精品的忠誠度。

Adjusted EPS grew 16.3%, and we generated $1 billion in free cash flow.

調整後每股盈餘成長 16.3%，我們產生了 10 億美元的自由現金流。

While many food and beverage segments are showing softness so far this year, and I'm now on Slide 6, our core categories of chocolate, biscuit and baked snacks are still demonstrating relatively more resilience and lower elasticity than the broader food universe.

雖然今年以來許多食品和飲料領域都出現了疲軟，我現在正在看第 6 張幻燈片，但我們的核心品類——巧克力、餅乾和烘焙零食——仍然表現出比更廣泛的食品領域更強的韌性和更低的彈性。

Consumer confidence varies by region with North America and Australia, New Zealand mixed, while Europe is improving and emerging markets remains strong. Shoppers in many markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to the absolute price point, driving them to choose smaller pack sizes in both biscuits and chocolate. And at the same time, consumers in our snacking categories remain very loyal to the brands they know and love.

消費者信心因地區而異，北美、澳洲和紐西蘭市場表現不一，歐洲市場正在改善，新興市場依然強勁。許多市場的消費者對價格的絕對值越來越敏感，促使他們選擇小包裝的餅乾和巧克力。同時，我們零食品類的消費者仍然對他們熟悉且喜愛的品牌保持著很高的忠誠度。

In North America, we're seeing increased promotional intensity combined with a significant shift in sales to non-tracked channels, including club stores, dollar stores and emerging e-commerce platforms. Lower income consumers feel pressured, and we see that pressure weighing on their frequency in the category, especially among brands that skew more to that group.

在北美，我們看到促銷力道加大，同時銷售額顯著轉向非追蹤管道，包括會員店、一元商店和新興的電商平台。低收入消費者感到壓力倍增，這種壓力影響了他們購買該品類產品的頻率，尤其是在那些更傾向於服務低收入群體的品牌中。

In Europe, consumer confidence is stable. While volume growth has slowed, the chocolate and biscuit categories are holding better than the broader FMCG landscape, and we're hearing increased optimism about the go-forward economic outlook.

在歐洲，消費者信心保持穩定。雖然銷售成長放緩，但巧克力和餅乾類別的表現優於整體快速消費品產業，我們聽到人們對未來經濟前景越來越樂觀。

Emerging markets remain a strong growth driver, with consumer confidence driving resilient demand and low elasticity. Consumers in emerging markets are particularly interested in premium offers, enabling us to expand our range with new on-trend formats and pack sizes.

新興市場依然是強勁的成長引擎，消費者信心推動了需求的韌性和較低的彈性。新興市場的消費者對高端產品特別感興趣，這使我們能夠透過推出符合潮流的新包裝規格和新包裝尺寸來拓展產品線。

Turning to Slide 7. It is important to underscore that despite short-term marketplace volatility, we remain focused on advancing our long-term growth strategy by reinvesting in our brands and people, driving strong execution, reshaping our portfolio and scaling sustainable snacking.

翻到第 7 張投影片。需要強調的是，儘管短期市場波動，但我們仍然專注於推進我們的長期成長策略，透過對我們的品牌和員工進行再投資、推動強有力的執行、重塑我們的產品組合以及擴大可持續零食的規模來實現這一目標。

We continue to increase our focus on our attractive and resilient core categories of chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks, and we remain on track to deliver 90% of revenue through these core categories by 2030. For example, we're investing significantly to support our Cadbury brand's 200th anniversary in the United Kingdom this year, with a multichannel consumer activation promoting the brand promise of generosity. At the same time, we're strengthening store availability, visibility and execution around the world. During the first quarter alone, we added around 100,000 directly served stores in emerging markets.

我們持續增加對巧克力、餅乾和烘焙零食等核心品類的投入，這些品類具有極強的市場吸引力和韌性，我們仍有望在2030年實現90%的收入來自這些核心品類的目標。例如，今年我們正大力投資，支持吉百利品牌在英國的200週年慶典，透過多通路消費者互動活動，推廣品牌慷慨的承諾。同時，我們也在加強全球門市的覆蓋範圍、提升品牌知名度並優化執行策略。光是第一季度，我們就在新興市場新增了約10萬家直營門市。

We are also harnessing the power of recent acquisitions by capturing synergies and driving growth. For example, we successfully completed a significant system integration in our Ricolino business this quarter, which boosts our ability to fully leverage the expanded routes to market in Mexico, particularly in the traditional trade. The combined Mondelez and Ricolino system paves the way for significantly expanded distribution in key categories, including chocolate.

我們正透過發揮綜效和推動成長，充分利用近期收購帶來的優勢。例如，本季我們成功完成了Ricolino業務的重要係統整合，這大大提升了我們充分利用墨西哥市場拓展通路的能力，尤其是在傳統通路方面。 Mondelez和Ricolino的合併系統為大幅拓展包括巧克力在內的關鍵品類的分銷鋪平了道路。

Additionally, we are making continued progress on our environmental and social sustainability agenda. Just a few weeks ago, we earned validation for our net zero by 2050 road map from the Science-Based Targets initiative, demonstrating that we are on the right path towards combating climate change. We also delivered significant improvements in advancing our mindful snacking priorities, including enhancing nutrient and ingredient profiles, promoting active lifestyles, and empowering consumers to make more mindful eating choices.

此外，我們在環境和社會永續發展方面也持續取得進展。就在幾週前，我們獲得了「科學碳目標倡議」（Science-Based Targets initiative）對我們2050年淨零排放路線圖的認可，這表明我們正走在應對氣候變遷的正確道路上。我們也在推動健康零食理念方面取得了顯著進步，包括優化營養成分和配料，倡導積極健康的生活方式，並幫助消費者做出更健康的飲食選擇。

I do encourage you to read our annual Snacking Made Right report, now available on our website, to learn more about our sustainability strategy and to review our full year sustainability performance data.

我鼓勵您閱讀我們網站上現已發布的年度《健康零食指南》報告，了解更多關於我們可持續發展策略的信息，並查看我們全年的可持續發展績效數據。

Before I turn the microphone over to Luca, on Slide 8, I'd like to spend a few minutes putting the recent headlines about cocoa prices and chocolates into perspective. We're playing for the long term in chocolate because it is fundamentally a great category, with very high brand loyalty and low private label penetration. And within this great category, our business is strong and agile.

在把麥克風交給盧卡之前，我想先花幾分鐘時間，從另一個角度分析最近關於可可價格和巧克力的新聞報道。我們著眼於巧克力產業的長期發展，因為巧克力本身就是一個潛力巨大的品類，品牌忠誠度很高，自有品牌滲透率很低。在這個潛力無窮的品類中，我們的業務既穩健又有彈性。

Record costs for cocoa ingredients and the resulting current and future price increases for customers and consumers obviously are generating substantial discussion. Despite this near-term headwind, chocolate volume continues to grow. And within this growing category, we remain structurally advantaged with large opportunities still ahead.

可可原料成本創歷史新高，由此導致的當前及未來價格上漲無疑引發了廣泛的討論。儘管面臨短期不利因素，巧克力銷售仍持續成長。在這個不斷成長的品類中，我們依然擁有結構性優勢，未來仍蘊藏著巨大的發展機會。

We are confident in our chocolate business for 4 main reasons: our cocoa coverage strategies, our approach to pricing, our supply chain, and our iconic brands.

我們對自己的巧克力業務充滿信心，主要有 4 個原因：我們的可可覆蓋策略、我們的定價方法、我們的供應鏈以及我們的標誌性品牌。

First, it is important to underscore that our coverage strategies have proven advantage versus market dynamics in the last few months. We are fully covered for 2024 and well protected heading into 2025. Our teams continue to monitor the market very closely to put ourselves in the best position possible. While poor weather and other factors on the supply and demand side have driven prices to unprecedented levels, we believe there will eventually be a market adjustment. We are confident that our teams are putting in place the right strategies to provide future flexibility. Luca will provide some additional details in a few minutes.

首先，必須強調的是，在過去幾個月的市場動態變化中，我們的保險策略已展現出優勢。我們已為2024年做好充分的保險保障，並為2025年做好了充分的準備。我們的團隊將繼續密切關注市場動態，以確保自身處於最佳位置。儘管惡劣天氣以及供需方面的其他因素已將價格推至前所未有的水平，但我們相信市場最終會進行調整。我們有信心，我們的團隊正在製定正確的策略，以確保未來的靈活性。盧卡稍後將提供更多細節。

Second, we continue to implement sound pricing strategies, including both headline pricing and revenue growth management. We remain agile in balancing the need to offset inflation with the need to maintain solid volume dynamics. We are especially focused on protecting critical price points, including low unit price and other key threshold prices.

其次，我們持續實施穩健的定價策略，包括市場定價和收入成長管理。我們靈活平衡抵銷通膨需求與維持穩健銷售成長的需求。我們尤其註重保護關鍵價格點，包括低單價和其他關鍵門檻價格。

Third, we remain confident in our supply chain. Continuity remains our top priority, and we are confident in both our own team and our partners with robust work streams to minimize the risk.

第三，我們對供應鏈依然充滿信心。業務連續性仍然是我們的首要任務，我們對自身團隊和合作夥伴都充滿信心，相信他們能夠透過穩健的工作流程將風險降至最低。

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we have some of the strongest, most iconic chocolate brands in the world, including Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Côte d'Or, Marabou, Freia and Lacta, to name a few. These brands already are the leaders in numerous key markets, and we are well positioned to accelerate growth in emerging markets.

最後，也許也是最重要的一點，我們擁有一些世界上最強大、最具標誌性的巧克力品牌，包括吉百利牛奶巧克力、妙卡、金冠巧克力、瑪拉布巧克力、弗雷亞巧克力和拉克塔巧克力等等。這些品牌在眾多關鍵市場已佔據領先地位，我們也已做好充分準備，加速在新興市場的成長。

Our research shows that consumers remain extremely loyal to our great brands because chocolate plays an important role in their lives, helping to bring families together, celebrate key milestones and to enjoy some quiet me-time. In our annual State of Snacking survey conducted in partnership with The Harris Poll, 72% of consumers across 12 countries said that a world without chocolate would be a world without joy. Nearly 60% said that they would rather give up social media for a month than give up chocolate. Our iconic portfolio, strong brand loyalty and advantaged geographic footprint make us particularly well positioned to take advantage of these consumer trends.

我們的研究表明，消費者對我們旗下眾多知名品牌保持著極高的忠誠度，因為巧克力在他們的生活中扮演著重要的角色，它有助於維繫家庭團聚、慶祝重要時刻，以及享受片刻寧靜的獨處時光。在我們與哈里斯民調公司合作進行的年度零食消費狀況調查中，來自12個國家的72%的消費者表示，一個沒有巧克力的世界將是一個沒有快樂的世界。近60%的受訪者表示，他們寧願放棄社群媒體一個月，也不願放棄巧克力。我們標誌性的產品組合、強大的品牌忠誠度和優越的地域佈局，使我們能夠更好地掌握這些消費趨勢。

In summary, we're confident that we are well equipped to navigate a relatively short-term headwind and that we're structurally advantaged to accelerate long-term growth in this category.

總而言之，我們有信心能夠應對相對短期的不利因素，並且我們在結構上具有優勢，可以加速該領域的長期成長。

With that, I'll turn it over to Luca to share additional insights on our financials.

接下來，我將把發言權交給盧卡，讓他分享更多關於我們財務狀況的見解。

Thank you, Dirk, and good afternoon. Q1 marked a solid quarter for our business, with organic revenue growth across each region, strong profit dollar growth, substantial investment into A&C and great free cash flow generation.

謝謝Dirk，下午好。第一季公司業績穩健，各地區均實現了有機收入增長，利潤額也強勁增長，對建築與施工（A&C）業務進行了大量投資，自由現金流也十分充裕。

Revenue grew 4.2% with strong pricing execution. Volume/mix was varied for the quarter, with emerging markets flat despite being impacted by some political unrest in the Middle East and some production slowdowns in Mexico related to Ricolino being integrated into SAP. We expect both issues to subside throughout the year, and specifically Ricolino is almost back on track. On the other side, developed market volume/mix was down 3.6% for the quarter, being impacted mostly by Europe customer disruption and the U.S. biscuit market softness.

得益於強勁的定價策略，營收成長了4.2%。本季銷售量和產品組合呈現波動，新興市場銷售量保持穩定，儘管受到中東部分地區政治動盪以及墨西哥部分地區因Ricolino整合至SAP系統而導致的生產放緩的影響。我們預計這兩個問題將在年內得到緩解，尤其是Ricolino的生產已基本恢復正常。另一方面，已開發市場銷售和產品組合本季下降了3.6%，主要受到歐洲客戶中斷和美國餅乾市場疲軟的影響。

On the customer front in Europe, we are happy to report that about 90% of the pricing is now implemented. One relevant customer alliance is still pending.

在歐洲客戶方面，我們很高興地報告，目前約90%的定價方案已經實施。還有一個重要的客戶聯盟方案仍在製定中。

Total revenue for emerging markets grew plus 8.3%, underpinned by strength across a number of key markets. While developed markets grew 1.4%, with solid results from Europe despite customer disruption and strength from our North America growth channels and Canada.

新興市場總營收成長8.3%，主要得益於多個關鍵市場的強勁表現。已開發市場成長1.4%，儘管受到客戶體驗波動的影響，歐洲市場仍取得穩健業績，北美成長通路和加拿大市場表現強勁。

Moving to portfolio performance on Slide 11. Biscuits and baked snacks grew 0.6% for the quarter. A number of brands delivered solid growth, including OREO, Ritz, Perk and 7Days. On the flip side, we have seen ongoing softness in U.S. biscuits driven primarily by brands that had higher penetration among lower-income households such as Chips Ahoy! This dynamic has impacted frequency and contributed to the decline in volume/mix.

第11頁投影片展示了投資組合的表現。餅乾和烘焙零食本季增加了0.6%。包括奧利奧 (OREO)、麗滋 (Ritz)、Perk 和 7Days 在內的多個品牌實現了穩健成長。另一方面，美國餅乾市場持續疲軟，這主要是由於 Chips Ahoy! 等在低收入家庭中滲透率較高的品牌銷售下滑所致。這種疲軟態勢影響了消費者的購買頻率，並導致銷售量和產品組合的下降。

Chocolate grew 5.8% with significant growth across both developed and emerging markets. Vol/mix was down 1.6% driven by customer disruption in Europe. Cadbury Dairy Milk posted strong growth, while we saw solid increases from Milka despite customer disruption. There is an element of Easter timing in these results, but we believe it to be immaterial. We also delivered solid growth with several of our local jewels, including Lacta in Brazil, Freia in Norway, Marabou in Sweden, and Hu in the U.S.

巧克力銷量成長5.8%，已開發市場和新興市場均大幅成長。受歐洲市場消費中斷的影響，銷售/產品組合下降1.6%。吉百利牛奶巧克力銷售強勁成長，而妙卡巧克力儘管受到消費中斷的影響，銷售仍保持穩健成長。這些業績受到復活節假期的影響，但我們認為影響不大。此外，我們旗下多個本土品牌也實現了穩健成長，包括巴西的Lacta、挪威的Freia、瑞典的Marabou以及美國的Hu。

Gum and candy grew 12.9% driven by continued momentum and strength in key markets, including China, Mexico and Western Andean.

受中國、墨西哥和安第斯西部等主要市場持續強勁的成長勢頭推動，口香糖和糖果的銷售額成長了 12.9%。

Let's review market share performance on Slide 12. We held or gained share in 40% of our revenue base with strength in chocolate as well as in gum and candy. This trend was offset by softer results in our U.S. biscuits business.

讓我們回顧一下第12頁幻燈片中的市佔率表現。我們在40%的收入來源中保持或提高了市場份額，其中巧克力、口香糖和糖果業務表現強勁。但美國餅乾業務的疲軟業績抵消了趨勢。

Turning to regional performance on Slide 13. Europe grew 4.4% in Q1. Execution was strong in the quarter, with a number of key countries delivering strong growth through solid pricing and excellent Easter execution, which led to share gains. This trend was partially offset by volume declines associated with expected customer disruption, while dollars were up more than 20% and including significant A&C investments. We have now landed the vast majority of pricing in Europe. One customer alliance is still ongoing, which will cause some additional disruption in Q2, but the business remains in line with our expectations.

請參閱第13頁投影片，以了解區域績效。歐洲第一季成長4.4%。本季執行力強勁，多個關鍵國家憑藉穩健的定價和出色的復活節促銷活動實現了強勁增長，市場份額也隨之提升。這一成長趨勢被預期客戶中斷導致的銷售下滑部分抵消，但美元收入成長超過20%，其中包括大量的廣告和商業投資。目前，我們已在歐洲市場確定了絕大部分定價策略。一項客戶聯盟仍在進行中，這將在第二季造成一些額外的業務中斷，但整體業務仍符合我們的預期。

North America grew 1.3% against an exceptionally strong compare of more than 16% in Q1 last year. Growth channels, including club and e-commerce and Canada, delivered strong results. However, overall volume/mix declined as a result of ongoing softness in food and mass. This softness has been consistent with the overall market and driven primarily by less frequency from lower income households. We are working to ensure our offers and activations continue to provide value to this consumer's cohort. And we continue to build that into our plans moving forward. We remain encouraged by our activation plans in key products such as OREO, TDP expansion and growth channels as we move through the year. North America OI increased by 2.1%.

北美地區年增1.3%，去年同期年增超過16%，表現異常強勁。包括會員店、電商和加拿大在內的成長管道均取得了顯著業績。然而，由於食品和大眾消費品持續疲軟，整體銷售和品類組成下降。這種疲軟與整體市場趨勢一致，主要原因是低收入家庭的消費頻率降低。我們正努力確保我們的優惠和推廣活動能夠繼續為這類消費者創造價值，並將繼續把這些因素納入未來的發展計畫。我們對奧利奧等重點產品的推廣計畫、TDP拓展以及成長通路的拓展充滿信心。北美地區的營業收入成長了2.1%。

AMEA grew 5.9% for the quarter. China delivered another strong quarter with low double-digit growth fueled by initiatives to enhance brand equity in OREO, Chips Ahoy! and Stride. India grew high single digits driven by continued strength in chocolate and distribution gains. While Australia, New Zealand and Japan also delivered a robust quarter for growth, coupled with strong share gains. Like last quarter, volume cost in the Middle East and Southeast Asia impacted results. We believe this dynamic will begin to moderate in the second quarter and the remainder of the year. AMEA increased OI dollars by 20.2%, continuing a strong track record of top and bottom line growth.

亞太及中東地區（AMEA）本季成長5.9%。中國市場再次實現強勁成長，在提升奧利奧（OREO）、趣多多（Chips Ahoy!）和Stride品牌價值的舉措推動下，實現了兩位數低段的成長。印度市場則受益於巧克力業務的持續強勁成長和分銷管道的拓展，實現了接近兩位數的成長。澳洲、紐西蘭和日本市場也實現了穩健成長，並且取得了顯著的市場份額提升。與上季類似，中東和東南亞地區的銷售成本對業績造成了一定影響。我們預計這一趨勢將在第二季及今年剩餘時間內有所緩解。亞太及中東地區的營業收入成長了20.2%，延續了營收和利潤雙雙成長的良好動能。

Latin America grew 7.1% with strong price execution and a slight volume/mix decline of minus 1.2%. It's important to note that Argentina is now capped at 26%. And this is not reflected in the base year comparison for Latin America. Argentina contributed more than 11 points to Latin America growth in Q1 '23 but only 1.8 points in Q1 '24. So we expect the underlying growth rate in Lat Am to appear understated for this year. Having said that, reported dollars growth continue to be strong for this segment. Volume/mix was softer in the quarter primarily due to some product availability in Mexico associated with the Ricolino that resulted in some production temporary slowdowns. These issues are mostly behind us, but we're still working to rebuild inventory.

拉丁美洲市場成長7.1%，價格執行強勁，但銷售/產品組合略有下降，降幅為1.2%。值得注意的是，阿根廷的貢獻率目前被限制在26%。這並未反映在拉丁美洲的基期比較。阿根廷在2023年第一季對拉丁美洲的成長貢獻超過11個百分點，但在2024年第一季僅為1.8個百分點。因此，我們預計今年拉丁美洲的潛在成長率將被低估。儘管如此，該細分市場的報告美元成長依然強勁。本季銷售/產品組合疲軟主要是由於墨西哥部分產品（與Ricolino有關）的供應問題導致生產暫時放緩。這些問題基本上已經解決，但我們仍在努力重建庫存。

Consumer confidence and demand in Mexico remains quite robust, and we expect to see improved volumes as supply chain catches up as Q2 progresses. Brazil, WACOM continued to be strong, both in terms of volume/mix and revenue, while Argentina is impacted by unprecedented inflation and subsequent pricing and volume softness. Latin America delivered OI growth of more than 33%. Strong pricing and the continuation of gum and candy momentum drove these results.

墨西哥的消費者信心和需求依然強勁，我們預計隨著第二季供應鏈的逐步恢復，銷售量將會提升。在巴西方面，WACOM 的銷售、產品組合和收入均保持強勁增長，而阿根廷則受到前所未有的通貨膨脹的影響，導致價格和銷售疲軟。拉丁美洲的營業收入成長超過 33%。強勁的定價策略以及口香糖和糖果的持續成長勢頭推動了這一業績。

Turning to Page 14. In Q1, we saw strong double-digit OI and gross profit dollar growth of more than $380 million driven by top line strength and ongoing cost efficiency. It is important to note that the impact of cost inflation will be a more significant headwind in the remaining quarters than what we saw in Q1 as a result of our favorable cocoa pipeline compared to the current market prices.

翻到第14頁。第一季度，由於營收成長強勁且持續的成本控制，我們的營業收入和毛利均實現了兩位數的強勁成長，超過3.8億美元。值得注意的是，由於我們可可產品線相對於當前市場價格有利，成本通膨的影響在接下來的幾季將比第一季更為顯著。

Next, to EPS on Slide 15. Q1 EPS grew more than 16% in constant currency. Most of this growth was driven by operating gains. And despite some currency headwinds, we grew adjusted EPS as reported ForEx by 10.5%.

接下來是第15頁幻燈片中的每股盈餘（EPS）。第一季每股收益以固定匯率計算成長超過16%。這一成長主要由營業利潤推動。儘管受到一些匯率不利因素的影響，我們以外匯匯率計算的調整後每股盈餘仍成長了10.5%。

Turning to Slide 16 and cash flow. We delivered $1 billion of free cash flow for the quarter. We also repurchased $600 million in stock during the quarter. We will continue to remain opportunistic for the remainder of the year as it relates to share buybacks. Our balance sheet also remains strong as leverage ended at about 2.5x.

接下來是第16張投影片和現金流部分。本季我們實現了10億美元的自由現金流。此外，本季我們也回購了價值6億美元的股票。在今年剩餘的時間裡，我們將繼續抓住機會進行股票回購。我們的資產負債表依然穩健，槓桿比率約2.5倍。

Before moving to our outlook, let me take a moment to discuss cocoa on Slide 18. First, our coverage strategies have proven advantageous versus market dynamics in the last few months. We are fully covered for '24 and also for a portion of half 1 2025. Typically, we are covered for 12-plus months, but given recent volatility, we have remained slightly shorter in duration.

在展望未來之前，我想先花點時間談談第18頁幻燈片上的可可情況。首先，過去幾個月來，我們的核保策略已證明對市場動態有利。我們已全面承保2024年及2025年上半年的部分時間。通常情況下，我們的承保期限會超過12個月，但鑑於近期市場波動，我們此次的承保期限略短。

Our teams continue to monitor the market very closely to put ourselves in the best position possible. It is obvious that the series of conditions of both supply and demand side have driven costs up at unprecedented levels. We believe there will eventually be a market adjustment. And while we want to protect ourselves, we are putting in place flexible structures that will allow us to participate to potential upside versus current historically high prices.

我們的團隊將繼續密切關注市場動態，力求將自身置於最佳位置。顯而易見，供需雙方的一系列因素已將成本推至前所未有的高度。我們相信市場最終會進行調整。在保護自身利益的同時，我們也正在建立靈活的架構，以便從當前歷史高點中把握潛在的上漲機會。

On the other side, we continue to execute against our pricing strategies to offset input cost inflation using both the landed price and revenue growth management. Chocolate has shown strong growth over the past several years with very durable volume and elasticity despite significant pricing, particularly as we have some of the strongest brands in the category. However, we will remain agile in our approach to pricing in order to balance the need to offset inflation with the need to maintain solid volume dynamics. This means we will protect critical price points such as low unit price and key thresholds across our footprint.

另一方面，我們將繼續執行定價策略，透過控製到岸價格和收入成長來抵消投入成本上漲的影響。過去幾年，巧克力業務表現強勁，銷量和彈性都非常穩定，即使價格大幅上漲，也依然保持了這一增長勢頭，尤其因為我們擁有該品類中最強大的品牌。然而，我們將保持靈活的定價策略，以平衡抵消通膨和維持穩健銷售成長的需求。這意味著我們將保護關鍵價格點，例如較低的單價和覆蓋我們所有銷售區域的關鍵價格門檻。

We also remain confident in our supply chain. Supply chain remains priority 1. And we are confident in our supply chain and that of our partners with ongoing work streams to minimize risks.

我們對自身的供應鏈依然充滿信心。供應鏈始終是重中之重。我們對自己以及合作夥伴的供應鏈都充滿信心，並積極採取措施最大限度地降低風險。

Turning to our outlook on Slide 19. Our outlook for 2024 remains unchanged. We continue to expect on-algo delivery for revenue, earnings per share and cash flow. This includes the upper end of our 3% to 5% range for organic net revenue growth, which continues to factor in ongoing customer disruption in Europe and softer growth in parts of the U.S.

接下來我們來看第19頁的展望。我們對2024年的展望保持不變。我們仍然預期營收、每股盈餘和現金流將實現演算法預期目標。這包括我們3%至5%的有機淨營收成長預期區間的上限，該預期仍然反映了歐洲持續存在的客戶中斷問題以及美國部分地區成長放緩的情況。

Most of our key assumptions remain consistent with what we shared with you in our last call. We continue to expect a high single-digit inflation in '24. Although the vast majority of pricing has been landed in Europe, we continue to expect some level of customer disruption in Q2 associated with our annual price negotiation process.

我們的大部分關鍵假設與上次電話會議中與您分享的內容保持一致。我們仍預期2024年通膨率將維持在個位數高點。儘管絕大部分定價已在歐洲完成，但我們仍預期第二季由於年度價格談判流程，客戶可能會受到一定程度的影響。

Interest expense is now expected to be approximately $300 million for the year. We are expecting $0.10 of EPS headwinds related to ForEx impact.

預計全年利息支出約3億美元。我們預期外匯波動將對每股收益造成0.10美元的負面影響。

In terms of tax rate, we continue to expect an adjusted effective tax rate in the mid-20s. Share repurchase is expected to be $2 billion with an opportunistic approach.

稅率方面，我們仍預期調整後的實際稅率約為20%。股票回購預計將達到20億美元，並採取機會主義策略。

With that, let's open the line for questions.

接下來，我們開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們首先來回答摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼提出的問題。

You highlighted a few of the challenges in North America at the moment. Just as we think about the path ahead maybe, how are you considering some of the more important actions that can be taken to protect share, maybe in light of some of the challenges at the lower end consumer and also given your comments about globally sort of protecting some of the price points that are out there? I'm just trying to get a sense for the tactics that might be implemented.

您剛才提到了北美目前面臨的一些挑戰。在我們思考未來發展方向之際，您認為應該採取哪些更重要的措施來保護市場佔有率？考慮到低端消費者面臨的一些挑戰，以及您之前提到的在全球範圍內保護現有價格點的問題，您又會如何看待這些問題？我只是想了解可能會採取哪些策略。

Yes, Ken. I mean you see that the category is slowing down and that we are losing a little bit of share. I think everybody knows that the consumer is sort of seeing a number of things: the persistent inflation, there is the high interest rate, there is the loss of the SNAP, and there's also the recent not-so-great job market. So consumer confidence, which was so and so up to today, I think now we just learned that it took a real dive this month.

是的，肯。我的意思是，你看，這個品類的成長正在放緩，我們的市佔率也略有下降。我想大家都知道，消費者目前面臨著許多問題：持續的通貨膨脹、高利率、SNAP（補充營養援助計畫）的取消，以及近期不太景氣的就業市場。因此，消費者信心，此前一直還不錯，但現在我們得知，這個月它出現了大幅下滑。

We see in our categories, the elasticity is really going up. Penetration is still pretty good, but people are much more cautious about price points. The frequency is coming down, particularly with the lower income consumers and particularly the brands that are important for them. Like Chips Ahoy!, we can see that they're losing some market share to private label. There is, as I just said, some trade-down to private label.

我們看到，在各個品類中，價格彈性確實在上升。市場滲透率仍然相當不錯，但消費者對價格更加謹慎。購買頻率正在下降，尤其是在低收入消費者群體中，特別是對他們來說很重要的品牌。例如，Chips Ahoy!，我們可以看到它正在被自有品牌蠶食一部分市場份額。正如我剛才所說，消費者確實會選擇一些替代產品，轉而購買自有品牌。

And then another thing to keep in mind is that there's some big channel shifts taking place to club or online or into the value channel. So what are we doing about it? The first thing is that we, last year, didn't have a great performance in TDP. So going forward, we are increasing our TDPs, which will help our volumes going forward and our market share. For those lower income consumers who are buying very carefully and evaluating very carefully when and what and at which price they buy, we will need to become more agile in the promo mechanisms that we will play out, and we're working hard on finding what works best for us. And this is kind of different, brand by brand and largely talking about what we do on our base packs here.

此外，需要注意的是，管道正在發生重大轉變，例如轉移到俱樂部、線上或低價管道。那我們該如何應對呢？首先，去年我們的TDP（總包裝價格）表現不佳。因此，展望未來，我們將提高TDP，這將有助於提升銷售和市場佔有率。對於那些購買時非常謹慎、仔細評估何時購買、購買何種產品以及購買價格的低收入消費者，我們需要在促銷機制方面更加靈活，我們正在努力尋找最適合我們的策略。這方面因品牌而異，主要指的是我們針對基礎包裝所採取的措施。

We will continue to invest in our brands because we increased prices also in March, so we will increase our investment. We are launching a number of special packs, a number of additional multipacks. But also, for instance, in CLIF, we are reducing the size of our multipacks from 6 to 5 or from 12 to 10 units in a multipack, which will help the price points we're selling it. And so that gives you a little bit of an idea of what we are planning to do going forward. We assume that in the second half of the year, the consumers will have a better confidence and that we will see gradually the volume and the market shares to come back.

我們將繼續投資旗下品牌，因為我們在三月也提高了價格，所以我們將加大投入。我們正在推出一系列特惠包裝和更多組合裝。此外，例如，在CLIF品牌中，我們將減少組合裝的規格，從每包6支減少到5支，或從每包12支減少到10支，這將有助於我們調整產品的價格。以上內容大致反映了我們未來的計畫。我們預計，下半年消費者信心將恢復，銷售量和市佔率也將逐步回升。

Great. And then, Luca, as we look at the remainder of the year, especially just modeling 2Q in particular, are there any unusual puts and takes that maybe aren't fully or properly factored into Street forecast? Anything we should be more considerate of that maybe we're not yet?

好的。那麼，盧卡，展望今年剩餘時間，特別是第二季度的市場預測，是否存在一些不尋常的買賣機會，可能尚未被充分或恰當地納入華爾街的預測中？是否存在一些我們應該更加重視但可能尚未考慮到的因素？

I don't think that's necessarily the case, Ken. I mean we feel good about reaffirming at this point our original guidance for 2024. And while it is true that the biscuit category in the U.S. is a little bit softer, we are overall happy with most of the dynamics we see around the world. Importantly, for us, Chinese New Year and Easter were quite good. And these are critical consumption events for us, but you should expect categories to continue their trends into Q2 and the latter part of the year.

肯，我不認為情況一定是如此。我的意思是，我們目前對重申2024年的預期感到滿意。雖然美國餅乾市場的確略顯疲軟，但我們對全球大部分地區的市場動態總體上感到滿意。尤其重要的是，對我們來說，春節和復活節期間的銷售情況相當不錯。這些對我們來說都是重要的消費節日，但預計各品類的銷售趨勢將延續到第二季​​以及下半年。

I want to spend a minute talking about pricing. We are at this point, in total, where we should be. We have implemented the price that we targeted everywhere, including Europe. We still have one main customer to finalize in Europe, which is leading to some disruption in Q2. So you should expect that. But overall, in terms of pricing, we are where we had anticipated to be by now. Inflation is, in total, in line with what we expected. And by now, we have locked cocoa for the entirety of 2024. So we have quite a good visibility on cost. I would have a special call-out here because cocoa costs will escalate throughout the year, particularly in the second half. The acquisitions, we started a little bit softer than expected, particularly in CLIF, and I called out some temporary issues in Ricolino, but you should see a sequential improvement throughout the year.

我想花一點時間談談定價。目前，我們整體上已經達到了預期目標。我們已經在所有地區，包括歐洲，實施了我們設定的價格目標。我們在歐洲還有一個主要客戶需要最終敲定，這會導致第二季出現一些波動。所以，請大家做好心理準備。但總體而言，就定價而言，我們目前已經達到了預期目標。通貨膨脹率整體上也符合我們的預期。而且，我們已經鎖定了2024年全年的可可供應。因此，我們對成本的可見度相當高。我在這裡要特別強調一點，因為可可成本將在今年持續上漲，尤其是在下半年。收購方面，我們開局略低於預期，尤其是在CLIF的收購中。我也提到了Ricolino的一些暫時性問題，但大家應該會看到這些情況在年內逐步改善。

Maybe another couple of points to bear in mind. Elasticities are planned in line with what we have seen in Q1, but we might see a little bit of an uptick, particularly in chocolate. But as we mentioned a few times, we will continue to support our brands. And we will not vacate critical price points, particularly in emerging markets. And we have planned for the same type of softness that we have seen in Q1 as far as the biscuit category goes. But we would expect our share to improve over time as we are revisiting some of the promo mechanics, particularly around brands like Chips Ahoy!. I mentioned that Ricolino is already recovering. So we should see good growth in Latin America going forward.

還有幾點要注意。彈性係數的設定與第一季的情況一致，但我們可能會看到略有回升，尤其是在巧克力領域。正如我們多次提到的，我們將繼續支持我們的品牌。我們不會放棄關鍵的價格點，尤其是在新興市場。至於餅乾品類，我們預期其需求將與第一季類似地疲軟。但隨著我們重新調整一些促銷策略，特別是針對像Chips Ahoy!這樣的品牌，我們預期市場佔有率會隨著時間的推移而提升。我之前提到Ricolino已經開始復甦。因此，我們預計未來拉丁美洲市場將保持良好的成長動能。

And finally, as far as earnings call, we continue to make progress in removing stranded costs related to the gum business. So I don't expect any particular change in dynamics into Q2 specifically, but we should see, particularly on volume, some sequential improvement as we go through the year, as we land some of the price negotiations, particularly in Europe.

最後，關於財報電話會議，我們在消除口香糖業務相關的擱淺成本方面持續取得進展。因此，我預計第二季不會出現任何特別大的變化，但隨著我們敲定一些價格談判，尤其是在歐洲，我們應該會看到銷售方面出現一些環比改善。

We'll take our next question from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將回答來自美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭提出的問題。

So my first question is just can you give us a little bit more color or perspective on emerging markets? I mean you talked about in the prepared remarks how the elasticities have been pretty good, considering how much pricing. So I guess, as we're thinking about balance of the year and just contribution to growth in the back half of the year, just if you can give us a little bit more color on emerging markets and how we should be thinking about that.

我的第一個問題是，您能否更詳細地介紹新興市場？您在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，考慮到定價因素，新興市場的彈性相當不錯。我想，鑑於我們目前正著眼於下半年以及新興市場對經濟成長的貢獻，您能否更詳細地介紹新興市場，以及我們應該如何看待它們？

Yes. Well, just to situate, about 40% of our sales growth in emerging markets was about 8% in Q1. We are seeing growth in reported dollars, top and bottom line, so solid, robust performance.

是的。簡單來說，我們新興市場銷售額成長約佔總銷售額的40%，而第一季這一數字約為8%。我們看到，無論從報告金額、營收或利潤來看，業績都實現了成長，表現穩健強勁。

If I look at the different markets, China, we had low double-digit growth with strong share gains. You know that China for us is a combination of selling more in the stores where we already are but also a big drive in distribution. That will continue for the rest of the year. And we expect that China will be strong. India, we had high single digits. Same sort of dynamics, continue to increase our share in the market and increasing our distribution. India probably won't show the same amount of growth that we've seen in previous years, we expect a bit of a slowdown there, but still expecting a positive year in India.

綜觀各個市場，中國市場我們實現了兩位數的低成長，市佔率也大幅提升。在中國，我們的成長主要體現在兩方面：一是現有門市的銷售成長，二是大力拓展通路。這項策略將持續到年底。我們預計中國市場將保持強勁成長。印度市場我們實現了接近兩位數的成長。成長模式與中國類似，我們將持續提升市場佔有率並擴大分銷網絡。印度市場的成長速度可能不會像往年那樣迅猛，我們預計成長速度會放緩，但仍然對今年的業績持樂觀態度。

Then Mexico, Luca already commented, Mexico was low single digits driven by some issues with the system implementation in merging Ricolino with our business, but we are gaining shares. Our offtake is good. We had some issues in supplying the market. And now that the system is done, we will really start to work that route to market expansion. So we're expecting, once we get through these short-term issues, that we will see some strong growth in Mexico. And then Brazil was mid-single digits, gaining share, a pretty good gain in distribution, price points are a bit of a discussion there. But we also expect Brazil to look pretty good.

盧卡先前提到，墨西哥市場成長緩慢，主要原因是Ricolino與我們業務合併過程中系統實施出現了一些問題，導致墨西哥市場成長速度僅為個位數。但我們正在逐步提升市場份額，銷售情況良好。之前我們在市場供應方面遇到了一些問題。現在系統已經完成，我們將真正開始著手拓展市場。因此，我們預計，一旦克服這些短期問題，墨西哥市場將實現強勁成長。巴西市場成長速度也達到了個位數中段，市場份額有所提升，分銷管道也取得了顯著進展，價格方面還有一些討論空間。但我們同樣預期巴西市場的整體表現會相當不錯。

So in the 4 biggest emerging markets for us, we feel pretty good about where they are and what we expect for the rest of the year. There are some watch-outs. There is inflationary pressure in Nigeria, Pakistan, Egypt. In the Middle East and Southeast Asia, we have the boycotts of Western products that are affecting us. So not everything is great. But we do believe that emerging markets this year will be giving us sustainable growth. We will get back to volume growth. We feel that the low category penetration that we have and the distribution opportunity that we have will drive this.

因此，對於我們四大新興市場，我們對它們的現狀以及今年剩餘時間的預期都相當滿意。當然，也存在一些需要注意的問題。尼日利亞、巴基斯坦和埃及都面臨通膨壓力。在中東和東南亞，西方產品的抵制活動也對我們造成了影響。所以，並非一切都盡如人意。但我們相信，新興市場今年將為我們帶來永續成長。我們將重回銷量成長的軌道。我們認為，我們目前較低的品類滲透率以及我們所擁有的分銷管道優勢將推動這一成長。

I think we are also gradually getting into the adjacencies. And we are able at this stage to continue our virtuous investment cycle where we continue to increase our investment every year. We get good growth. We generate more margin and the year after, we increase our investment. So overall, it's not going to be an incredible year in emerging markets, but it's going to be a very solid year for us in emerging markets.

我認為我們也逐步涉足相關領域。現階段，我們能夠持續維持良性循環的投資策略，即每年增加投資。我們實現了良好的成長，獲得了更高的利潤率，並在第二年繼續增加投資。因此，整體而言，新興市場今年可能不會是業績驚人的一年，但對我們來說，在新興市場將是穩健的一年。

And Luca, just one quick one on cocoa. I know here, our trading desk kind of has a view that we might be closer to $5,000 by the end of the year. So I guess, to the extent that there's an expectation that cocoa prices come down, does it pay for you to just sort of wait to hedge? I guess it's kind of like shorting cocoa. But just I think last year, you might have held out until the middle of the year before you started locking in. Just kind of curious how we should be thinking about and observing what you may be doing to start thinking about cocoa in '25?

盧卡，關於可可，我有個問題想問你。我知道我們交易部門認為，到年底可可價格可能會接近5,000美元。所以我想，既然大家預期可可價格會下跌，那麼現在等待避險是否划算呢？我猜這有點像做空可可。但我記得去年你們可能等到年中才開始鎖定價格。我很好奇，在2025年，我們該如何看待和觀察你們的策略，才能開始考慮可可市場？

That's a very good question. So we truly believe that current cocoa prices are the results of a series of accidental circumstances that over time, we believe, should go away. I think you all know that the main crop last year was problematic. But as you might have read from multiple sources, the mid-crop is already looking much better. But also on the other side, on the demand side, the industry went a little bit shorter than usual on coverage and now, by out of necessity to replenish minimum stocks, really provide support to the current high prices. I think in this context, we truly believe that the current market structure does not warrant the current market prices. And so the question becomes when is the correction going to take place. And most likely, the answer is in September, October as the data for the new crop becomes available.

這是一個很好的問題。我們真心認為，目前的可可價格是由一系列偶然因素造成的，我們相信這些因素會隨著時間的推移而消失。我想大家都知道，去年的主季收成不太理想。但正如你們可能從多個管道了解到的，中季收成的情況已經好轉很多。然而，另一方面，在需求方面，該行業目前的供應量略低於往年，為了補充最低庫存，這實際上支撐了當前的高價。我認為，在這種情況下，我們真心認為目前的市場結構並不能支撐目前的市場價格。因此，問題變成了：價格何時會回檔？最有可能的是，答案是9月或10月，屆時新季收成的數據將會公佈。

We cannot stay still until then. We will have to protect ourselves. But our implementation strategy for 2025 is around flexibility. And so we are putting in place very flexible structures, namely pure vanilla call options. We bought a few where price of those options was very affordable, I would say, particularly in light of today's prices. But we are putting in place multiple structures that would allow us to participate in a potential market correction.

我們不能坐等時機成熟。我們必須保護好自己。但我們2025年的實施策略以彈性為核心。因此，我們正在建立非常靈活的結構，即純粹的普通看漲期權。我們買入了一些價格非常實惠的選擇權，尤其是在當前價格水準下。但我們正在建立多種結構，以便參與潛在的市場調整。

So you're absolutely right. We believe the market is overreacting. The current prices are not sustainable. And should the correction happen, which we expect towards the end of Q3, most likely, we will be ready to take advantage of lower prices. Now I don't want to give you the false impression that we are not going to have inflation in cocoa in '25 because reality is, in 2024, we are covered at materially better prices than current market. So you might want to take a look at the total mark-to-market in the noncash to adjusted GAAP results.

所以您說得完全正確。我們認為市場反應過度。目前的價格是不可持續的。如果價格回檔真的發生（我們預計最有可能在第三季末發生），我們將做好準備，抓住價格下跌的機會。現在，我不想讓您誤以為2025年可可價格不會上漲，因為事實上，到2024年，我們的儲備價格將遠低於目前的市場價格。所以，您不妨看一下非現金調整後GAAP結果中的總市值。

Yes. Appreciate that. Yes, we were looking at that. Actually, Pete Galbo pointed out to me just how big the gain was, so definitely, I get that piece.

是的，謝謝。是的，我們一直在關注這一點。實際上，皮特·加爾博向我指出了收益有多大，所以我完全明白這一點。

We'll take our next question from Robert Moskow with TD Cowen.

接下來，我們將回答 TD Cowen 的 Robert Moskow 提出的問題。

I guess one of the more pleasant surprises is that European chocolate retail data looks very, very strong. The elasticity looks de minimis. And I want to know if you think that will help in your negotiations with retailers heading into 2025. Are the retailers happy with how the category is performing, how the consumer is handling the pricing so far? Does that help at all?

我想，最令人驚訝的是，歐洲巧克力零售數據看起來非常強大。價格彈性似乎微乎其微。我想知道，您認為這是否會對您與零售商在2025年的談判有所幫助？零售商對目前巧克力品類的表現是否滿意？消費者對價格的接受程度如何？這些資訊是否對您有幫助？

Yes. So of course, it does help in the sense that so far, the elasticity is relatively benign. We've got a good performance. Despite some disruptions, growth has been solid, I would say, and we have increased our market share. We do have to take into account that Easter came earlier. We had a very strong Easter from our side, but it came early. So some of the numbers you're seeing are influenced versus last year, we didn't have an earlier Easter. But overall, I would say that this certainly is better than you would have expected.

是的。所以，從某種意義上說，這確實有所幫助，因為到目前為止，彈性相對較小。我們的業績表現良好。儘管遇到了一些幹擾，但我認為成長一直很穩健，而且我們的市佔率也有所提高。我們必須考慮到復活節提前到來。我們這邊復活節的業績非常強勁，但復活節來得早。因此，您看到的一些數據會受到與去年相比的影響，因為去年復活節來得比較晚。但總的來說，我認為這絕對比您預期的要好。

It shouldn't be a surprise in a way because we know that the chocolate market can be very resilient. We also are continuing to invest quite heavily. And consumer confidence in Europe, I would say, is stable. There is some uptick in elasticity. But overall, it's is better than you would have expected and maybe even a little bit more positive than what we currently are seeing in U.S. Going forward, I think it helps to see a strong category that we are performing well. Of course, the retailers see the cocoa pricing as well as we do. So it will help the discussions going forward. I wouldn't say that it's going to be simple, but there will be an understanding that if cocoa prices remain relatively high, that there will need to be more price increases that need to be implemented. And I think we're helped by the data that we can provide.

從某種程度上來說，這並不令人意外，因為我們知道巧克力市場具有很強的韌性。我們也在持續加大投資。我認為，歐洲的消費者信心保持穩定，彈性有所回升。但總體而言，情況比預期要好，甚至可能比我們目前在美國看到的情況還要樂觀。展望未來，我認為看到我們表現良好的品類是有益的。當然，零售商和我們一樣關注可可價格，這將有助於未來的討論。我不會說這會很簡單，但大家會達成共識：如果可可價格保持相對高位，就需要進一步漲價。我認為我們能夠提供的數據對我們很有幫助。

And we also have to see what's going to happen with elasticity going forward as the new chocolate prices get implemented because when you have seasonal like Easter, the consumer not necessarily is fully aware of the price difference. When they start to see their tablet now in the normal shelf, that's when they will fully realize elasticity. So we will need to see where that is heading. But overall, yes, very positive on what is going on with chocolate in Europe.

我們也需要觀察隨著新巧克力價格的實施，價格彈性會如何改變。因為在復活節等季節性節慶期間，消費者可能無法完全意識到價格差異。只有當他們開始在普通貨架上看到巧克力時，才會真正感受到價格彈性。所以我們需要觀察市場走向。但總的來說，我對歐洲巧克力市場的發展前景非常樂觀。

We'll take our next question from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

接下來，我們將回答來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯提出的問題。

Great. I want to talk a bit of about the gross margin. I thought coming into this year, you actually expected the gross margin to start out slower in the first quarter and actually sort of improved year-over-year as we went into the year. It seems like we're setting up for a different, maybe an opposite, dynamic. So maybe you could just expand on what drove the gross margin higher this quarter and then how you expect the cadence of gross margin to evolve over the course of the year.

好的。我想談談毛利率。我原以為今年年初你們預期毛利率會在第一季成長放緩，然後隨著時間的推移逐年提升。但現在看來，情況似乎有所不同，甚至可能恰恰相反。所以，您能否詳細解釋本季毛利率上升的驅動因素，以及您預期毛利率在全年的走勢？

Yes. So as I said, both in the prepared remarks and in my first answer to Ken's question, we are very happy with the level of pricing we have taken so far. And so we are absolutely on plan. On the cost side, I commented about the fact that the cocoa price escalation will be more visible in the second part of the year. So I'm not sure you will continue seeing the type of gross profit dollar expansion and gross margin that you saw in Q1 into the second half because the cocoa prices will hit a little bit harder particularly in Q4.

是的。正如我在事先準備好的演講稿和對肯的第一個回答中所說，我們對目前的定價水準非常滿意。因此，我們完全按照計劃進行。關於成本方面，我提到可可價格上漲將在下半年更加明顯。所以我不確定下半年是否還能像第一季一樣維持毛利和毛利率的成長，因為可可價格的上漲壓力會更大，尤其是在第四季。

So I wouldn't read too much into that. I think the way you have to think about it is, are we happy with expanding gross profit dollars almost 12%? Absolutely. Are we happy with the reported dollar gross profit that we see? Absolutely. We are pricing in a very disciplined manner around the world. We are doing RGMs. So that is bearing its fruit. But you're going to see some compression, particularly in Q4. So don't expect like 2.5 points of gross profit expansion from now to the end of the year for sure.

所以我覺得不必過度解讀。我認為你應該這樣想：我們對毛利成長近12%感到滿意嗎？當然滿意。我們對目前公佈的毛利數據滿意嗎？當然滿意。我們在全球範圍內都採取了非常嚴格的定價策略，並且實施了零售毛利管理（RGM）。這些措施正在取得成效。但你會看到一些收縮，尤其是在第四季。所以，不要期待從現在到年底毛利能成長2.5個百分點。

Yes. Okay. Very good. And actually, Dirk, if I could build on your comments just a minute ago on Europe. I'm curious, I mean, understanding that the retail negotiations have gone maybe a little bit better than you had originally assumed, but it seems like demand, as you say, is stable, maybe a little bit better than expected, I guess is it better than you would have expected? And if so, how does that influence your plans for the balance of the year? Are you leaning in a bit harder into Europe to take advantage of those better conditions?

是的，好的，很好。德克，實際上，我想就你剛才關於歐洲的發言再補充一點。我很好奇，我的意思是，我知道零售談判可能比你最初預想的要好一些，而且正如你所說，需求似乎很穩定，甚至可能比預期略好一些，我想問的是，這是否比你預想的要好？如果是這樣，這會如何影響你今年剩餘時間的計畫？你會加大對歐洲市場的投入，以利用這些更好的市場條件嗎？

Yes. I would say, first of all, as it relates to the client negotiations, they largely are going exactly as we would have expected. As we knew that we had increased prices, we foresee that in our forecast for the year. And at the moment, it's playing out as expected. As Luca mentioned, there's still one buying group that we need to finish. Hopefully, we will do that in the coming weeks. And then we should be done for a while.

是的。首先，就客戶談判而言，進展基本上符合預期。正如我們之前提到的，價格已經上漲，這也反映在我們的年度預測中。目前來看，一切都在按計畫進行。正如盧卡所提到的，我們還需要完成一個採購集團的談判。希望我們能在未來幾週內完成。之後，我們應該就能暫時告一段落了。

As it relates to the current situation in Europe, obviously, there will be a recuperation because we have not been delivering for a while with some clients. And as we get agreements, we start to fill the pipeline again. So that will help us. But overall, I would say that we are not expecting to see for the full year a big difference in our European performance. We're not expecting to see an upside. We are convinced that we have more stability, we feel more assured about delivering what we are expecting to deliver in Europe, but we're not counting yet on an upside for the year.

就目前歐洲的情況而言，顯然會有一個復甦的過程，因為我們有一段時間未能向一些客戶交付產品。隨著我們達成新的協議，我們的業務儲備也會重新恢復。這對我們有幫助。但總的來說，我認為我們預計全年歐洲業務的業績不會有太大變化。我們並不預期會出現成長。我們相信業務更加穩定，也更有信心能夠如預期在歐洲交付產品，但我們目前並不期待全年業績會大幅提升。

We'll take our next question from Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

接下來，我們將聽聽 Alexia Howard 和 Bernstein 的提問。

Our next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國證券的克里斯凱裡。

Dirk, in the comments that you made around the consumer in North America, elasticity is picking up a little bit and some expectations into Q2 and the back half of the year. I guess I'm just trying to understand a couple of things. First, in Q1, is there anything within the portfolio that you would deem not elasticity related? You mentioned some competitive activity in CLIF that you're going to be responding to. Say, anything competitively or fundamentally that you would point to that you would see improving into Q2 where it gives you a little bit of confidence in North America?

Dirk，你之前提到北美消費者需求彈性略有回升，並且對第二季和下半年也有一些預期。我想了解幾個問題。首先，在第一季度，你的投資組合中是否有任何與需求彈性無關的因素？你提到CLIF的一些競爭活動，你會對此做出回應。那麼，在第二季度，是否有任何競爭因素或基本面因素會有所改善，從而讓你對北美市場更有信心？

And then the second thing would just be regarding the consumer into the back half of the year. Did I catch you right that there's an expectation that the consumer in North America gets a little bit better and that your volume trends as such should improve sequentially? So perhaps just any help on portfolio dynamics in the quarter and also just, I guess, more like the macro and the consumer.

其次，我想談談下半年的消費者狀況。我理解沒錯吧，你們預期北美消費者的消費習慣會有所改善，銷售趨勢也會較上季上升？所以，能否請您就本季的產品組合動態，以及宏觀經濟和消費者方面的情況提供一些建議？

Yes. Well, I would say that if you look at the market share evolution, the brand that's most affected is Chips Ahoy!, and Chips Ahoy! is the most susceptible to private label. And OREO or a belVita are gaining market share. And so I would say if there's anything that's pointing -- I wouldn't call it necessarily not susceptible to elasticity. We see some elasticity on those brands, too. But overall, the activations that we have and the interest we're getting from the consumer on those 2 brands offset the elasticity effect that we're having.

是的。嗯，如果你觀察市場佔有率的變化，我認為受影響最大的品牌是趣多多（Chips Ahoy!），它也最容易受到自有品牌的影響。而奧利奧（OREO）和焙朗（belVita）等品牌正在擴大市場份額。所以，如果要說有什麼跡象表明——我不會說它們完全不受市場彈性的影響。我們也看到這些品牌存在著一定的市場彈性。但總的來說，我們所進行的行銷活動以及消費者對這兩個品牌的興趣抵消了我們所面臨的市場彈性影響。

As it relates to what we need to do going forward, it's largely now trying to figure out in which way can we get the frequency, particularly from the lower income consumer that we would like to see. So price points certainly play a role, and we will need to work short term with promotions; longer term, probably working on the size of our packs to make sure that we hit those right price points. Because if we see anything in the elasticity, it is that we have surpassed certain price points and that is having a big effect.

至於我們接下來需要做什麼，目前主要在於如何達到我們所期望的購買頻率，尤其是在低收入消費者群體中。價格無疑是關鍵因素，我們需要短期內透過促銷活動來控製成本；長期來看，可能需要調整包裝規格，以確保價格達到理想水準。因為我們從價格彈性中發現，一旦價格超過某個特定點位，就會產生顯著影響。

Now I would say that movement is happening already. So that's what we gradually will expect to improve in the coming months, i.e., that our promotional and pricing strategy gets better, that we understand better how to get the frequency and the volume from the consumer. I'm also expecting that the overall consumer confidence in the second half of the year will improve. That will have an effect for us. There is a lapping effect. Last year, we had 16% growth in North America. Of course, that plays a role. The lapping later in the year will be easier. Those are the things that I would see that make me believe that the second half of the year will look better for us in North America.

現在我認為這種轉變已經開始了。因此，我們預期未來幾個月情況會逐步改善，也就是說，我們的促銷和定價策略會更加完善，我們會更了解如何提高消費者的購買頻率和購買量。我也預期下半年消費者的整體信心會有所提升。這將對我們產生正面影響。存在一種「疊疊效應」。去年我們在北美實現了16%的成長。當然，這會產生一定影響。下半年的疊疊效應會更容易克服。正是這些因素讓我相信，下半年我們在北美的表現會更好。

Okay. One quick follow-up on cocoa. Luca, you gave a lot of helpful commentary around some of the things that you're going to be doing or are doing now contractually and you also have an expectation in September and October. I guess the question is, what if cocoa sustains these really high levels and we don't see the fundamental break expected going into next year, is it still appropriate to think about pricing as the core mechanism to cover the inflation? Or given the lead time that you have to prepare, maybe there are other alternatives like accelerated savings, RGM, the sorts of things that you can do when you have many months to prepare for such cycles, if indeed, you believe that the cocoa prices at some point will eventually break. So it's just more game theory, but any context on that would be helpful.

好的。關於可可，我還有一個後續問題。盧卡，你對一些你即將或正在執行的合約事項做了很多有益的評論，你也對九月和十月的情況有所預期。我想問的是，如果可可價格持續維持在如此高位，而我們明年沒有看到預期的根本性突破，那麼將價格作為應對通膨的核心機制是否仍然合適？或者考慮到你有充足的準備時間，是否有其他替代方案，例如加速儲蓄、RGM（可再生燃料市場）等等，這些措施可以在你有幾個月的時間來應對此類週期時採取，前提是你確實相信可可價格最終會突破。所以這又牽涉到博弈論，但任何相關的背景資訊都會很有幫助。

Yes, I believe it's absolutely critical for us to get ready for potentially cocoa staying at these levels. I just want, though, to call out one thing, which is the forward curve for cocoa is heavily inverted. And that means in general that even today, we could potentially get physical coverage into '25 but at cheaper prices than the current spot price that we see today. But rest assured that as a company, we are looking at all possible scenarios. And as a matter of fact, we are taking a fresher look at some of the costs we have, making sure that we try to understand the level of flexibility that we have. We are looking thoroughly into additional RGM.

是的，我認為我們必須做好準備，應對可可價格可能維持在當前水平的情況，這一點至關重要。不過，我想特別指出一點，那就是可可的遠期價格曲線已經嚴重倒掛。這意味著，即使在今天，我們通常也能以低於當前現貨價格的價格，獲得2025年的實體供應。但請放心，作為一家公司，我們正在考慮所有可能的情況。事實上，我們正​​在重新審視一些成本，確保我們了解自身的彈性。我們也認真研究增加再生原料供應的可能性。

We will stay absolutely true to the concept of protecting price point, particularly in emerging markets. We are not going to move the LUP, low unit price, points in India, for instance. But we will be looking into potential RGM in terms of promo, in terms of downsizing, et cetera, so to say that we will have to make sure that elasticity stays in control. In the end, we are going to be managing '25 in light of what we think a more plausible cocoa level is, despite the fact that it might still be very high because we fundamentally believe that in a couple of years' time, tops, the cocoa price will correct. And at that point in time, we will have to have retained our volume, our share, our competitive advantage both in developed and in emerging markets. And that's the way we are looking at these.

我們將始終堅持保護價格點的概念，尤其是在新興市場。例如，我們不會改變印度的低單位價格點（LUP）。但我們會考慮透過促銷、縮減規模等方式來降低成本，也就是說，我們必須確保價格彈性維持在可控範圍內。最終，我們將根據我們認為更合理的可可價格水平來管理2025年的業務，儘管目前的可可價格可能仍然很高，因為我們堅信，最多幾年內，可可價格就會回調。屆時，我們必須保持我們在已開發市場和新興市場的銷售、市場佔有率和競爭優勢。這就是我們看待這些問題的方式。

But rest assured, we are looking at all possible scenarios, and we're going to be sitting down soon with the teams to make sure that we put in place already all the possible actions that would allow us to go through a potential worst-case scenario in 2025.

但請放心，我們正在考慮所有可能的情況，我們很快就會與各團隊坐下來，確保我們已經採取所有可能的措施，以便我們能夠應對 2025 年可能出現的最糟糕的情況。

We'll take our next question from Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

接下來，我們將回答來自傑富瑞集團的羅伯·迪克森提出的問題。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Sorry about that. So just one quick one on cocoa again, Luca. Just in terms of your comments around maybe the mid-crop coming in a little bit better, your kind of expectation, maybe things could ease and improve a little bit kind of in the almost pre-main crop period. I mean kind of what you're saying is just the expectation here is that supply should be up, right? I mean we're clearly running at a deficit, but then we should assume that supply should be up in the next main crop. Is that fair?

抱歉打擾了。盧卡，關於可可，我再問一個問題。你之前提到中季可可的收成可能會好一些，你預計在主季作物收割前的這段時間，情況可能會有所緩解和改善。我的意思是，你的意思是，預計供應量會增加，對嗎？我們目前顯然處於供應短缺狀態，但我們應該假設下一季主季的供應量會增加。這樣理解對嗎？

Yes, I think that's fair. I mean when you look closely at the numbers, Ivory Coast and Ghana, the main crop was down year-on-year about 20%. The total cocoa supply was positive as it were. In total, it was down minus 10%. Do I expect the main crop to be down 20% in Africa or 10% in total again? I don't think that's a plausible scenario at this point in time. But as I said, we will know more as we get closer to the main crop. But fundamentally, nothing has really happened that structurally impairs the production capability of Africa specifically to that level. So yes, I'm hopeful that there will be a better main crop, and I think you will see prices for cocoa adjusting.

是的，我認為這很合理。仔細分析數據，科特迪瓦和加納的主要作物產量較去年同期下降了約20%。可可總供應量則有所成長，整體下降了10%。我預計非洲的主要作物產量會下降20%或整體產量再次下降10%嗎？我認為目前來看，這種情況不太可能發生。但正如我所說，隨著主要作物季節的臨近，我們會了解更多。但從根本上講，目前還沒有任何因素從結構上削弱非洲的生產能力，使其達到如此嚴重的程度。所以，我希望今年的主要作物能夠豐收，我認為可可價格也會隨之調整。

Having said that, we are looking into all possible scenarios, and we're going to be implementing some opportunities that we see before year-end. But we'll have to wait for us to be able to tell you what those are. And I think as we move throughout the year, we'll keep you updated on what we see for cocoa into 2025.

話雖如此，我們正在研究所有可能的情況，並將在年底前落實一些我們看到的機會。但具體是什麼機會，我們暫時還不能透露。我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們會持續向您報告我們對2025年可可市場前景的展望。

All right, lovely. And then just quickly on the top line, I think originally, Q1, you had said, might be below the algo for the year just kind of given some of the European disruption. But I think Europe did better than we all probably saw it. North America is a bit softer. So I'm just curious, are you still thinking there could be slightly positive volume/mix for the company for the year and then I think you also said likely for each of the segments once we x out some of the European disruptions? And then lastly, I think you had also originally said it was probably more high end than the 3% to 5% sales growth, so just curious on the volume piece and then if you're still at the high end.

好的，太好了。關於第一季業績，我記得您之前說過，考慮到歐洲市場的一些幹擾因素，第一季的業績可能會低於全年的預期。但我認為歐洲市場的實際表現可能比我們預想的還要好。北美市場則略顯疲軟。所以我想問一下，您是否仍然認為公司全年的銷售和產品組合可能會略有成長？我記得您之前也說過，一旦排除歐洲市場的一些幹擾因素，各個業務板塊的銷售和產品組合都可能有所成長。最後，我記得您之前說過，銷售成長可能高於3%到5%，所以我想了解一下銷量方面的情況，以及您是否仍然認為成長幅度會更高。

Look, the volume piece is we expect volume to be flattish for the year. Reality is, as we gave guidance, we had a little bit of headroom, as you might expect. I think that headroom is still, for the most part, there. We'll have to see how a couple of ticket items play out for the remainder of the year, particularly the boycott in AMEA as it relates to some of our brands, how will that play out in the quarters to come.

你看，銷量方面，我們預計今年銷量將保持穩定。實際上，正如我們之前給出的預期，我們留有一些成長空間，這也在意料之中。我認為這種成長空間在很大程度上仍然存在。我們需要觀察一些關鍵因素在今年剩餘時間的發展情況，特別是針對我們部分品牌在AMEA地區的抵制活動，看看這些因素將如何影響接下來的幾季。

And the other thing is the share recovery, particularly in the U.S. I feel confident about the plans that the U.S. is putting in place. I think we are moving a little bit the price point of Chips Ahoy!, and that would allow us to recuperate share and volume. And Chips Ahoy! is the #1 driver of the volume declines that you see in the North American segment. But then we will have to see how elasticity plays out as well.

另一方面是市場佔有率的復甦，尤其是在美國市場。我對美國正在實施的計劃充滿信心。我認為我們正在小幅調整Chips Ahoy!的價格，這將有助於我們恢復市場佔有率和銷售量。 Chips Ahoy!是北美市場銷售下滑的首要原因。但接下來，我們還需要觀察市場彈性如何發揮作用。

I feel quite good about the Latin American business. As I called out, I think 3 out of the 4 business units, and the only one that is declining in volume in real terms, is Argentina. But the other 3 are doing quite well. We feel good about China. I think India, we're going to see some slowdowns. But all in all, it should be fine. And then I could go around the globe and tell you that reality is once we land the final customer in Europe, we hopefully see some reviving of the trade stock. And hopefully, the chocolate market will continue displaying acceptable elasticity. So a long answer to say expect flattish volume, but in reality, there are some puts and takes and we want to keep some flexibility within the plan.

我對拉丁美洲的業務感覺相當不錯。正如我之前提到的，我認為四個事業單位中有三個都表現良好，唯一一個實際銷售量下滑的是阿根廷。其他三個業務單位都發展得相當不錯。我們對中國市場也充滿信心。我認為印度市場可能會出現一些放緩，但總體而言，應該不會有問題。然後我可以說，一旦我們拿下歐洲的最終客戶，我們有望看到貿易庫存回升。而且，我們希望巧克力市場能夠持續保持可接受的彈性。所以，說了這麼多，其實就是想說銷量預計會比較平穩，但實際上，市場存在一些波動，我們希望在計畫中保持一定的彈性。

And this does conclude our Q&A segment. I will turn the call to our speakers for any closing comments.

問答環節到此結束。接下來，我將把電話交給各位演講嘉賓，請他們作總結發言。

Well, thank you for assisting in the call. I will conclude with saying that we had a solid first quarter, and we feel confident for the rest of the year that we will have an on-algorithm year. And looking forward, if you have any questions, our IR department will be happy to help you. And looking forward to see you next quarter for the results that we have then. Thank you.

感謝您參與本次電話會議。最後我想說，我們第一季業績穩健，我們有信心在今年餘下的時間裡實現預期目標。如果您有任何疑問，我們的投資人關係部門將竭誠為您解答。期待下個季度與您再次相聚，屆時我們將公佈更多業績。謝謝。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與，您可以斷開連接了。