億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加億滋國際 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括億滋管理層的講話和問答環節。 （操作員說明）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將電話轉給億滋投資者關係副總裁謝普·鄧拉普 (Shep Dunlap) 先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides, which are available on our website.

下午好，感謝您加入我們。今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Dirk Van de Put；和我們的首席財務官盧卡·扎拉梅拉 (Luca Zaramella)。今天早些時候，我們發送了新聞稿和演示幻燈片，這些內容可以在我們的網站上找到。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將對公司的業績做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於我們今天看待事物的方式。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱我們的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素，了解有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳細信息。

As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results. In addition, we provide our year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, unless otherwise noted. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

當我們今天討論我們的業績時，除非另有說明，否則我們將參考我們的非公認會計準則財務指標，這些指標針對我們的公認會計準則業績中包含的某些項目進行了調整。此外，除非另有說明，我們以固定匯率為基礎提供同比增長。您可以在我們的收益報告和幻燈片演示文稿的後面找到可比的 GAAP 指標以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節表。

Today, Dirk will provide a business and strategy update followed by a review of our financial results and outlook by Luca. We will close with Q&A.

今天，德克將提供業務和戰略更新，隨後盧卡將回顧我們的財務業績和前景。我們將以問答結束。

I'll now turn the call over to Dirk.

我現在將電話轉給德克。

Thanks, Shep, and thanks to everyone for joining the call today. I will start on Slide 4. I'm pleased to share that we delivered strong broad-based top line growth during the first half of the year. Our strong performance was driven by effective pricing, combined with healthy volume growth in 3 of our 4 regions. Europe was a lone exception due to expected disruption driven by retailer negotiation. We continue to execute on our long-term strategy, and we see robust momentum and solid consumer confidence across geographies and categories. We successfully implemented our planned price increases in Europe, closing our customer negotiations in line with expectations. With this behind us, we feel good about the remainder of the year in Europe.

謝謝謝普，也感謝大家今天加入電話會議。我將從幻燈片 4 開始。我很高興地告訴大家，我們在今年上半年實現了強勁的廣泛收入增長。我們強勁的業績得益於有效的定價以及 4 個地區中 3 個地區銷量的健康增長。由於零售商談判造成的預期中斷，歐洲是唯一的例外。我們繼續執行我們的長期戰略，我們看到了各個地區和類別的強勁勢頭和堅實的消費者信心。我們在歐洲成功實施了計劃的提價，按照預期完成了客戶談判。有了這些，我們對歐洲今年剩下的時間感覺良好。

We also feel good about continued consumer confidence. We continue to drive robust demand in our core categories across the vast majority of our businesses, resulting in both value and volume growth. Our strong profit dollar growth was driven by cost discipline and pricing to offset cost inflation. We continue to invest in our brands, capabilities and portfolio reshaping initiatives to accelerate and compound growth. And we remain confident that our proven strategy delivered by our world-class team positions us well to deliver another strong year. Based on the strength of our first half performance and our latest view across businesses, we are raising our full year organic net revenue and adjusted EPS growth outlook to 12% plus.

我們也對持續的消費者信心感到滿意。我們繼續推動絕大多數業務核心類別的強勁需求，從而實現價值和銷量的增長。我們強勁的利潤增長是由成本紀律和抵消成本通脹的定價推動的。我們繼續投資於我們的品牌、能力和投資組合重塑計劃，以加速和復合增長。我們仍然相信，我們的世界一流團隊所實施的行之有效的戰略將使我們能夠再次實現強勁的一年。根據我們上半年業績的強勁表現和我們對各業務的最新看法，我們將全年有機淨收入上調，並將每股收益增長前景調整至 12% 以上。

Turning to Slide 5. You can see that the first half of 2023 showed continued momentum across our entire business. We delivered first half organic net revenue growth of $2.7 billion, up nearly 18% versus prior year and significantly ahead of our already strong 12% in full year 2022. This includes a 15.8% growth for the quarter. We also delivered adjusted gross profit dollar growth of more than $1 billion. Again, we are well ahead of last year's pace with 18.9% growth. We're proud of our team's continued focus and agility, which enable us to continue investing to drive further growth acceleration. Our A&C investment is increasing 18% in the first half of the year. These results translated into strong adjusted OI growth of close to $600 million, up 23% and again, well ahead of last year's pace.

轉向幻燈片 5。您可以看到 2023 年上半年我們整個業務呈現出持續的增長勢頭。我們上半年的有機淨收入增長了 27 億美元，比去年同期增長了近 18%，大大領先於我們本已強勁的 2022 年全年 12%。其中包括本季度 15.8% 的增長。我們還實現了調整後毛利潤增長超過 10 億美元。我們再次以 18.9% 的增長率遠遠領先於去年的步伐。我們為我們團隊的持續專注和敏捷性感到自豪，這使我們能夠繼續投資以推動進一步加速增長。今年上半年我們的 A&C 投資增長了 18%。這些結果使調整後的 OI 強勁增長，達到近 6 億美元，再次增長 23%，遠遠超過去年的增速。

On Slide 6, you can see a few examples of our brand acceleration strategy in action. Our continued investments in creative assets, personalization at scale and innovation, combined with strong in-store execution, are resulting in continued sales growth and brand loyalty increases in our core categories of chocolates, biscuits and big snacks.

在幻燈片 6 上，您可以看到我們品牌加速戰略的一些實際實施示例。我們對創意資產、大規模個性化和創新的持續投資，加上強大的店內執行力，導致我們的巧克力、餅乾和大零食等核心品類的銷售額持續增長，品牌忠誠度不斷提高。

For example, in China, we launched Oreo Airy Cake in March. Driven by the strength of the Oreo name as the world's favorite cookie, this new packaged cake already has achieved a 3.5% market share and 80% of the velocity of its leading competitor in large stores. And China is one of our most important emerging markets. This is just one example of numerous innovations to expand our key brands into adjacent spaces and formats.

例如，在中國，我們於三月份推出了奧利奧艾里蛋糕。在奧利奧作為世界上最受歡迎的餅乾這一名字的推動下，這款新包裝的蛋糕已經取得了3.5% 的市場份額，並且在大型商店中的銷售速度是其主要競爭對手的80% 。中國是我們最重要的新興市場之一。這只是將我們的主要品牌擴展到相鄰空間和業態的眾多創新的一個例子。

We're also continuing to renovate our recipes to stay a step ahead of changing consumer and customer tastes. For instance, we recently launched our first under 100 calories Cadbury treat for adults. This is a great example of our commitment to help consumers snack mindfully. We are offering a broader range of portion-controlled packs and products but also our portion control education campaigns both digitally and on pack.

我們還將繼續改進我們的配方，以領先於不斷變化的消費者和客戶口味。例如，我們最近推出了首款低於 100 卡路里的吉百利成人零食。這是我們致力於幫助消費者用心吃零食的一個很好的例子。我們提供更廣泛的份量控制包裝和產品，同時還提供數字化和包裝形式的份量控制教育活動。

In the baked snacks segment, we continue to accelerate both top and bottom line performance in Clif Bar. We remain focused on improving service levels and supply chain efficiencies while further advancing productivity and effectiveness in our media spend and continuing to strengthen brand equity.

在烘焙零食領域，我們繼續加速 Clif Bar 的營收和利潤表現。我們仍然專注於提高服務水平和供應鏈效率，同時進一步提高媒體支出的生產力和有效性，並繼續加強品牌資產。

We're also continuing to introduce new culturally relevant flavors to strengthen consumer loyalty for our local jewel brands. For example, Lacta has been a leader in Brazilian chocolate for over 110 years. Following the successful launch of Lacta tablets filled with Oreo, we recently rolled out 2 new line extensions filled with additional Lacta products that Brazilians already know and love. The Sonho de Valsa Bomboms made with chocolate and cashew nut filling as well as Ouro Branco candies made with wafers filled with chocolate cream and covered in white chocolate.

我們還繼續推出新的文化相關口味，以增強消費者對我們當地珠寶品牌的忠誠度。例如，Lacta 110 多年來一直是巴西巧克力的領導者。繼成功推出含有奧利奧的 Lacta 片劑後，我們最近推出了 2 個新的產品線擴展，其中含有巴西人已經了解和喜愛的其他 Lacta 產品。 Sonho de Valsa Bomboms 是用巧克力和腰果餡料製成的，而 Ouro Branco 糖果是用薄餅製成的，裡面填滿了巧克力奶油，外面覆蓋著白巧克力。

These are just a few examples of the innovative ways our teams are driving growth in our iconic chocolate, biscuits and baked snack franchises, continuously investing in new formats, pack sizes and flavor combinations that drive incrementality and encourage consumers to experience our brands in new ways.

這些只是我們團隊推動標誌性巧克力、餅乾和烘焙零食特許經營業務增長的創新方式的幾個例子，不斷投資於新的格式、包裝尺寸和風味組合，以推動增量並鼓勵消費者以新的方式體驗我們的品牌。

Within the baked snacks segment, we're especially excited about our strong performance in the rapidly growing cakes and pastry space. Let's take a closer look on Slide 7.

在烘焙零食領域，我們對快速增長的蛋糕和糕點領域的強勁表現感到特別興奮。讓我們仔細看看幻燈片 7。

Earlier, I mentioned the Oreo Airy Cake in China as a great example of our brand acceleration efforts in emerging markets. Similarly, in developed markets, we're making solid progress in expanding our successful cookie and chocolate franchises into chocobakery, cakes and pastries. For instance, in the United States, Oreo Cakesters are continuing to perform well. Since the recent launch of this fan favorite, it already has earned a 3.7% share of packaged snack cakes.

早些時候，我提到中國的奧利奧艾里蛋糕是我們在新興市場品牌加速努力的一個很好的例子。同樣，在發達市場，我們在將我們成功的餅乾和巧克力特許經營權擴展到巧克力麵包店、蛋糕和糕點方面取得了紮實的進展。例如，在美國，奧利奧蛋糕店繼續表現良好。自從這款深受粉絲喜愛的產品最近推出以來，它已經贏得了包裝零食蛋糕 3.7% 的份額。

Give & Go is another solid success story in our North America baked snacks lineup, where we're continuing to drive distribution and innovation. Share is up 0.5 point year-to-date, driven by solid pricing execution, expansion into adjacencies such as mini donuts and strong category demand.

Give & Go 是我們北美烘焙零食系列中的另一個堅實的成功故事，我們將繼續推動分銷和創新。得益於穩健的定價執行、向迷你甜甜圈等周邊產品的擴張以及強勁的品類需求，今年迄今為止，該公司的股價上漲了 0.5 個百分點。

Meantime, in Europe, 7Days continues to advance its position as the #1 packaged croissant, and we have exciting plans to continue to grow its footprint beyond Europe, including recent test-and-learn trials in a number of emerging markets.

與此同時，在歐洲，7Days 繼續鞏固其作為排名第一的包裝羊角麵包的地位，我們制定了令人興奮的計劃，繼續將其足跡擴大到歐洲以外的地區，包括最近在許多新興市場進行的測試和學習試驗。

Turning to Slide 8. We continue to invest in digital commerce and revenue growth management tools and capabilities to support our brands while strengthening our partnerships with leading customers. I'm pleased to share that we have achieved the #1 market share position in digital commerce in our top 5 markets of the United States, China, United Kingdom, France and Brazil, while over-delivering in up-and-coming emerging markets such as India, Philippines, Brazil, Mexico and Poland, which are up 40% year-to-date.

轉向幻燈片 8。我們繼續投資於數字商務和收入增長管理工具和能力，以支持我們的品牌，同時加強與領先客戶的合作夥伴關係。我很高興與大家分享，我們在美國、中國、英國、法國和巴西這 5 大市場的數字商務市場份額中排名第一，同時在新興市場也實現了超額交付印度、菲律賓、巴西、墨西哥和波蘭等國家今年迄今增長了40%。

We continue accelerating eB2B capabilities to expand distribution and strengthen our partnerships with key customers. Additionally, our increased investments in elevating RGM strategies and actions are driving strong value realization, helping to offset inflationary pressures. We have appointed dedicated RGM leadership and teams in all key markets, supported with new proprietary data and analytics assessments, digital tools and a comprehensive training program. We are confident that these ongoing investments will deliver sustainable improvements in growth, efficiency and ultimately, margin.

我們繼續加速 eB2B 能力，以擴大分銷並加強與主要客戶的合作夥伴關係。此外，我們在提升 RGM 戰略和行動方面增加的投資正在推動強勁的價值實現，有助於抵消通脹壓力。我們在所有主要市場任命了專門的 RGM 領導層和團隊，並提供新的專有數據和分析評估、數字工具和全面的培訓計劃的支持。我們相信，這些持續投資將帶來增長、效率以及最終利潤的可持續改善。

Along with our financial performance, I'm pleased to share that we continue to make significant progress in advancing our environmental, social and governance strategy. In May, we published our annual Snacking Made Right report, reinforcing our 2025 goals and documenting our latest performance in priority areas. These include sourcing key ingredients more sustainably, reducing carbon emissions and increasing recyclable packaging. We are also improving performance in social impact and diversity, equity and inclusion, both internally and in partnership with our suppliers as well as helping consumers snack more mindfully through improved portion education and increased focus on single portion packs.

除了我們的財務業績外，我很高興與大家分享，我們在推進環境、社會和治理戰略方面繼續取得重大進展。 5 月，我們發布了年度《Snacking Made Right》報告，強化了我們的 2025 年目標並記錄了我們在優先領域的最新表現。其中包括更可持續地採購關鍵成分、減少碳排放和增加可回收包裝。我們還通過內部以及與供應商的合作，提高社會影響力和多樣性、公平性和包容性方面的表現，並通過改進份量教育和更加關注單份包裝來幫助消費者更加用心地吃零食。

We continue to believe that helping to drive positive change at scale across these important areas is an integral part of value creation with positive returns for all our stakeholders. We encourage you to read our Snacking Made Right report for more details and context on our progress.

我們仍然相信，幫助在這些重要領域大規模推動積極變革是價值創造的一個組成部分，為我們所有利益相關者帶來積極回報。我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的《Snacking Made Right》報告，了解有關我們進展的更多詳細信息和背景。

With that, I'll turn it over to Luca to share additional insights on our financials.

接下來，我會將其轉交給盧卡，分享有關我們財務狀況的更多見解。

Thank you, Dirk, and good afternoon. Q2 marked another strong quarter for our business. Double-digit organic net revenue growth across each region, sound pricing execution, strong profit dollar growth and significant brand reinvestment enabled us to continue driving sustainable value creation.

謝謝你，德克，下午好。第二季度標誌著我們業務的另一個強勁季度。每個地區兩位數的有機淨收入增長、良好的定價執行、強勁的利潤增長和重大的品牌再投資使我們能夠繼續推動可持續的價值創造。

Revenue grew plus 15.8% with strong volume/mix growth in North America, Latin America and AMEA. Overall, volume/mix was flat for the quarter despite the expected customer disruption in Europe. Recall, last year's Q2 total company volume/mix was plus 5%, making this performance even more impressive.

由於北美、拉丁美洲和 AMEA 地區銷量/產品組合的強勁增長，收入增長了 15.8%。總體而言，儘管歐洲預計會出現客戶中斷，但本季度的銷量/產品組合持平。回想一下，去年第二季度公司總銷量/組合增長了 5%，這使得這一業績更加令人印象深刻。

Emerging markets grew more than 23% with strong performance across significant numbers of markets, while developed markets grew 11% with balanced trends from both North America and Europe and despite customer disruption.

新興市場增長超過 23%，大量市場表現強勁，而發達市場增長 11%，北美和歐洲的趨勢均衡，儘管客戶受到干擾。

Turning to portfolio performance on Slide 12. Chocolate, biscuits, gum and candy businesses all posted another quarter of double-digit increases in Q2. Biscuits increased plus 13.9%. Oreo, Ritz, Chips Ahoy!, Give & Go, TUC and Club Social all delivered double-digit growth. Clif, though not inorganic, also posted strong growth. Chocolate grew plus 13.7% with strength in both developed and emerging markets. Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Lacta, Toblerone all delivered double-digit increases.

轉向幻燈片 12 上的投資組合表現。巧克力、餅乾、口香糖和糖果業務在第二季度均實現了兩位數增長。餅乾增長了13.9%。 Oreo、Ritz、Chips Ahoy!、Give & Go、TUC 和 Club Social 均實現了兩位數增長。 Clif雖然不是無機的，但也實現了強勁增長。巧克力在發達市場和新興市場均表現強勁，增長了 13.7%。吉百利牛奶公司 (Cadbury Dairy Milk)、Milka 牛奶公司、Lacta 牛奶公司、Toblerone 牛奶公司均實現了兩位數的增長。

We are very pleased with the performance of our core categories of chocolate and biscuits, which, albeit impacted in the quarter by customer disruption, are on a solid trajectory. For both, we expect good volume momentum as we move forward in the year now that negotiations in Europe are behind us.

我們對巧克力和餅乾核心類別的表現非常滿意，儘管本季度受到客戶干擾的影響，但仍處於穩健的軌道。對於這兩個方面，我們預計隨著歐洲談判的結束，今年我們將取得良好的銷量勢頭。

Gum & Candy grew more than 30% with strength across our business units, especially in emerging markets.

憑藉我們各業務部門的實力，尤其是在新興市場，口香糖和糖果的增長超過 30%。

Now let's review market and share performance on Slide 13. We held or gained share in 70% of our revenue base. The U.S. continues to make service level improvements and ended Q2 with good on-shelf availability and inventory levels.

現在讓我們回顧一下幻燈片 13 上的市場和股票表現。我們持有或獲得了 70% 的收入基礎的份額。美國繼續提高服務水平，並以良好的貨架可用性和庫存水平結束了第二季度。

Moving to Page 14. We delivered more than $540 million in gross profit growth or 20% in Q2 driven by top line productivity and cost discipline. This also resulted in year-over-year gross margin expansion in all regions except Europe, which was impacted by expected customer disruption. Now that pricing is implemented, we expect improvements in Europe, too. This growth provides significant fuel to invest behind our brands as well as significant earnings flow-through.

轉到第 14 頁。在營收生產力和成本控制的推動下，我們第二季度的毛利潤增長超過 5.4 億美元，即 20%。這也導致除歐洲以外的所有地區的毛利率同比增長，歐洲受到預期客戶中斷的影響。既然定價已經實施，我們預計歐洲也會有所改善。這種增長為我們的品牌背後的投資提供了重要的動力，並帶來了可觀的收入流。

Moving to regional performance on Slide 15. We delivered double-digit revenue growth in all regions while also delivering volume/mix increases in all regions but Europe that got impacted by pricing-related disruption. This growth translated into operating leverage and OI dollar growth across the board. Europe grew plus 13.1% with double-digit OI growth. Importantly, pricing has now been landing, and we expect that this will lead to a better second half volume and margin performance.

轉到幻燈片 15 上的區域業績。我們在所有地區實現了兩位數的收入增長，同時在除歐洲以外的所有地區實現了銷量/產品組合的增長，但歐洲受到了定價相關中斷的影響。這種增長轉化為運營槓桿和 OI 美元的全面增長。歐洲增長了 13.1%，OI 增長達到兩位數。重要的是，定價現已落地，我們預計這將帶來更好的下半年銷量和利潤率表現。

Overall, the consumer remains resilient with elasticities holding up relatively well in chocolate and biscuit, while we saw some incremental elasticity in part of our Cheese & Grocery business.

總體而言，消費者仍然保持彈性，巧克力和餅乾的彈性相對較好，而我們的奶酪和雜貨業務的部分彈性有所增加。

North America grew plus 12.4%, with OI dollar growth of more than 29%, driven by higher pricing, volume/mix of 2% and strength from both our base biscuits business and our ventures, such as Give & Go, Perfect Snacks and Tate's. Tate's also posted robust growth and delivered another operating margin increase of double-digit in percentage points in Q2 versus last year. Now profitability is approaching the level of total North America, but we still have to generate material synergies, both on revenue and cost line. So Clif is a business that is growing, has now some margins and still with meaningful synergy potential.

北美增長了12.4%，其中OI 美元增長超過29%，這得益於更高的定價、2% 的銷量/組合以及我們的基礎餅乾業務和我們的合資企業（例如Give & Go、Perfect Snacks 和Tate's ）的實力。泰特美術館 (Tate's) 也實現了強勁增長，第二季度營業利潤率與去年相比再次實現了兩位數百分點的增長。現在盈利能力已接近北美整體水平，但我們仍然必須在收入和成本方面產生實質性協同效應。因此，Clif 是一家正在成長的企業，現在已經有了一定的利潤，並且仍然具有有意義的協同潛力。

AMEA grew 13.2% with solid volume/mix growth of more than 3%. OI dollars increased plus 4.2%. India, China, Southeast Asia all posted strong top line growth for the quarter. Latin America grew more than 37% with OI dollar growth of nearly 65%. Mexico, Western Andean countries and Brazil all turned in robust quarters. Ricolino remains on track in terms of integration, and we expect to begin capturing more benefits towards the end of the year.

AMEA 增長 13.2%，固體數量/品種增長超過 3%。 OI 美元上漲 4.2%。印度、中國和東南亞本季度的收入均實現強勁增長。拉丁美洲增長超過 37%，OI 美元增長近 65%。墨西哥、西安第斯國家和巴西的季度業績均強勁。 Ricolino 在整合方面仍處於正軌，我們預計將在今年年底開始獲得更多收益。

Next to EPS on Slide 16. In the quarter, EPS grew plus 21.5% in constant currency or nearly 17% on reported dollars.

接下來是幻燈片 16 上的每股收益。本季度每股收益按固定匯率計算增長了 21.5%，按報告美元計算增長了近 17%。

Turning to Slide 17. Free cash flow was $1.5 billion in the first half with $1.7 billion in return of capital to shareholders. We also announced today an increase in our dividend of plus 10%, marking a double-digit increase in 8 of the last 9 years of the history of Mondelez.

轉向幻燈片 17。上半年自由現金流為 15 億美元，其中股東資本回報為 17 億美元。今天我們還宣布將股息增加 10% 以上，這標誌著億滋過去 9 年曆史中的 8 年實現兩位數增長。

Turning to our outlook on Page 19. Given the strength of our Q2 and first half performance, the successful conclusion of our negotiations in Europe, the strong volume momentum of our brands, we are raising our full year outlook for both revenue growth and adjusted EPS. We now expect top line growth of 12% plus versus our original outlook of 5% to 7% and most recent outlook of 10% plus. EPS growth is also expected to be 12% plus versus our prior outlook of 10% plus and the original outlook of high single digits. Note, our free cash flow outlook remains unchanged at $3.3 billion given $400 million in cash taxes related to the sell-down and exit of our KDP position.

轉向第 19 頁的展望。鑑於我們第二季度和上半年的業績強勁、歐洲談判的成功結束以及我們品牌的強勁銷量勢頭，我們上調了全年收入增長和調整後每股收益的預期。我們現在預計收入增長 12% 以上，而我們最初的預期為 5% 至 7%，最近的預期為 10% 以上。每股收益增長預計也將增長 12% 以上，而我們之前的預期為 10% 以上，而最初的預期為高個位數。請注意，考慮到與出售和退出 KDP 頭寸相關的 4 億美元現金稅，我們的自由現金流前景保持在 33 億美元不變。

In terms of key assumptions, we continue to expect a double-digit inflation increase for '23 driven by elevated cost in packaging, ingredients, labor and lapping favorable commodity hedges in 2022.

就關鍵假設而言，我們繼續預計 23 年通脹率將出現兩位數增長，原因是包裝、原料、勞動力成本上升以及 2022 年實行有利的大宗商品對沖。

With respect to interest expense, we now expect $380 million for the year given recent coffee asset monetization and term loan reductions. We also expect to end the year around mid-2s in terms of leverage based on current conditions.

就利息支出而言，考慮到最近的咖啡資產貨幣化和定期貸款減少，我們現在預計今年的利息支出為 3.8 億美元。根據目前的情況，我們還預計今年年底槓桿率將在 2 左右。

As a reminder, given the liquidation of our KDP position in middle of July, there will be no dividend income recorded in half 2. We now expect $0.11 of EPS of headwinds related to ForEx impact for the year versus $0.09 in our prior outlook. The outlook revision reflects our increased confidence in the year, ongoing resilience of consumer consumptions in our categories, relatively benign elasticities, continued brand reinvestment and completion of pricing in Europe as well as health of our emerging markets. This current outlook does not consider a material deterioration of geopolitical environment surrounding some areas of our business.

提醒一下，鑑於我們的KDP 頭寸已於7 月中旬清算，半年2 期將不會錄得股息收入。我們現在預計今年與外匯影響相關的逆風每股收益為0.11 美元，而我們之前的展望為0.09美元。展望修正反映了我們對今年的信心增強、我們類別中消費者消費的持續彈性、相對良好的彈性、持續的品牌再投資和歐洲定價的完成以及我們新興市場的健康狀況。當前的前景並未考慮到我們某些業務領域的地緣政治環境的實質性惡化。

With that, let's open the line for questions.

接下來，讓我們打開提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們將接受巴克萊銀行安德魯·拉扎爾提出的第一個問題。

Appreciate it. First off, Dirk, we've heard so far from a bunch of food companies that have reported earnings of some maybe very recent changes in things like consumer behavior, retailer inventory destocking, competitiveness and maybe generally greater sluggishness in category volumes as pricing has lapped. I was hoping you could talk a bit about the landscape as it relates to Mondelez specifically and any changes sort of one way or the other that are notable for you?

欣賞它。首先，德克，到目前為止，我們已經聽到一些食品公司的報告，這些公司報告了一些可能是最近發生的變化，比如消費者行為、零售商庫存去庫存、競爭力，以及隨著定價下降而導致的品類銷量普遍更加低迷。 。我希望你能談談與億滋特別相關的情況，以及任何對你來說值得注意的變化？

Okay. Thanks, Andrew. Well, based on H1, we obviously feel quite good about how our portfolio is performing. We have brought growth in the different regions, in the different categories across most of our brands. The pricing went through quite well, strong pricing, I would say, compared to others. We have very good volume/mix growth in 3 out of 4 regions. And the only region that was disrupted was Europe, but that was due to customer disruption. And we foresee, for the second half, that we will see solid volume growth in Europe.

好的。謝謝，安德魯。嗯，根據上半年的情況，我們顯然對我們的投資組合的表現感覺非常好。我們在不同地區、大多數品牌的不同類別中實現了增長。我想說，與其他公司相比，定價非常順利，定價很強勁。我們在四分之三的地區的銷量/產品組合增長非常好。唯一受到干擾的地區是歐洲，但這是由於客戶干擾造成的。我們預計，下半年，歐洲的銷量將穩步增長。

Our share is increasing. North America is finally recovered. We're gaining share in AMEA. Europe, of course, still a bit of a drag on share, but that's, again, because of this client disruption. You see that our emerging markets are doing quite well broadly in the top and the bottom line. So we are generating good gross profit, so we can continue to invest strongly in our brands and our capabilities. The acquisitions are doing well. I would point to Clif. And yes, we have double-digit growth in adjusted and real EPS. So the whole picture, for us, looks pretty good.

我們的份額正在增加。北美終於恢復了。我們正在獲得 AMEA 的份額。當然，歐洲市場份額仍然受到一定程度的拖累，但這也是因為客戶中斷。您會看到，我們的新興市場在收入和利潤方面都表現得相當不錯。因此，我們產生了良好的毛利潤，因此我們可以繼續大力投資我們的品牌和能力。收購進展順利。我會指出克利夫。是的，我們的調整後每股收益和實際每股收益都實現了兩位數的增長。所以對於我們來說，整個畫面看起來相當不錯。

If I look a little bit further on the environment, at least in our categories, we see strong consumer confidence. We would say that it's improving in the developed and in the emerging markets. And the price sensitivity seems to be plateauing. Particularly the emerging market consumer, I would say, is very, very solid. If I think about competition, I think the big difference between us and the competition will be that we have a very strong top line combined with some good volume growth.

如果我進一步關注環境，至少在我們的類別中，我們會看到消費者的強勁信心。我們可以說，發達國家和新興市場的情況正在改善。價格敏感性似乎已趨於穩定。我想說，特別是新興市場的消費者非常非常穩定。如果我考慮競爭，我認為我們與競爭對手之間的巨大區別將是我們擁有非常強勁的營收和良好的銷量增長。

Promo levels, we see some increase in promo levels in biscuits, but it's largely flat and down somewhere else. We even see promo prices going up faster than non-promo prices in percentage. From a pricing perspective, we have done as what was needed. So most of our '23 pricing is taken. North America was already done in December of last year. Europe was closed, in line with expectations in Q2, and emerging markets are exactly on plan.

促銷水平，我們看到餅乾的促銷水平有所增加，但在其他地方基本持平並有所下降。我們甚至發現促銷價格的上漲速度比非促銷價格的百分比更快。從定價的角度來看，我們已經按照需要做了。所以我們的大部分定價都是採用 23 年的價格。北美地區已於去年 12 月完成。歐洲休市，符合第二季度的預期，新興市場也完全按計劃進行。

And then the elasticity, we don't see a change in the elasticity, which has been low as you know. We do see consumers shopping around more, hoping to find deals. The quantity bag per shopping trip is the same, but they tend to shop a little bit less frequently, but nothing really that preoccupies us.

然後是彈性，我們沒有看到彈性發生變化，正如你所知，彈性一直很低。我們確實看到消費者更多地貨比三家，希望找到優惠。每次購物旅行的袋子數量是相同的，但他們購物的頻率往往要低一些，但沒有什麼真正讓我們著迷的。

And so to close, I would say, the volume is strong. Europe will recover in the second half, and this will be the strongest H1. And we believe here that we have delivered as Mondelez. So we think we are quite -- doing quite well there.

因此，我想說的是，成交量強勁。歐洲下半年將復蘇，這將是上半年最強勁的。我們相信我們已經作為億滋實現了目標。所以我們認為我們在這方面做得相當好。

Maybe a few words on Europe, which is probably the most important thing for us. It obviously has been, for us, a very dynamic environment. Top line demand has been quite good, 13.1% growth, but the volume/mix was down 4.5 points, but that was due primarily through that client disruption. I want to reemphasize that all 2023 client negotiations have closed successfully, and now the pricing was landed in line with plan. We will see some inflationary costs continuing in cocoa and sugar going into 2024. And we are planning to do some strong investments in the second half in Europe.

也許談談歐洲，這對我們來說可能是最重要的。對於我們來說，這顯然是一個非常充滿活力的環境。營收需求相當不錯，增長了 13.1%，但銷量/組合下降了 4.5 個百分點，但這主要是由於客戶中斷造成的。我想再次強調，2023 年所有客戶談判均已成功結束，現在定價已按計劃確定。到 2024 年，我們將看到可可和糖的通脹成本持續存在。我們計劃下半年在歐洲進行一些強有力的投資。

So if you think that through and you say, okay, these pricing negotiations are behind us, we are positive on H2. And so what you could expect for H2 in Europe is that our volumes will grow. We are ready to execute in store. We have planned key promotions because now with this negotiation behind us, we can go full force again.

因此，如果您認為這一點並且您說，好吧，這些定價談判已經過去，那麼我們對 H2 持積極態度。因此，您可以預計下半年我們在歐洲的銷量將會增長。我們已準備好在商店執行。我們已經計劃了重要的促銷活動，因為現在談判結束後，我們可以再次全力以赴。

I think as a consequence of that, you will see our share improve. We also start lapping prior year headwinds. And our margins will start to recover as the pricing is now fully implemented. So I think 3 levels of good news, volume, share and margins.

我認為，因此，您會看到我們的份額有所提高。我們也開始克服去年的逆風。隨著定價現已全面實施，我們的利潤率將開始恢復。所以我認為好消息有三個層面：數量、份額和利潤。

Our categories continue to do well. Consumers seem to prioritize them. Also in Europe, elasticities remain low despite some strong price inflation. Yes, if you talk about our cheese or grocery categories, there, we see a little bit of an uptick in elasticity, but that's a smaller percentage of our business.

我們的品類繼續表現良好。消費者似乎優先考慮它們。同樣在歐洲，儘管物價通脹強勁，但彈性仍然較低。是的，如果你談論我們的奶酪或雜貨類別，我們會看到彈性有所上升，但這在我們的業務中所佔的比例較小。

HFSS in the U.K. looks pretty manageable at this stage. The consumer is adjusting to the changes that they see in store. We see a bigger impact on seasonal and gifting, but the impact on standard chocolate seems to be minor. So I would say the main news that we have is that we are expecting a good second half for Europe on top of all the other things. Hope that gives you a picture, Andrew.

現階段，英國的 HFSS 看起來相當容易管理。消費者正在適應他們在商店中看到的變化。我們看到對季節性和禮品的影響更大，但對標準巧克力的影響似乎很小。所以我想說，我們得到的主要消息是，除了所有其他事情之外，我們預計歐洲下半年將會有良好的表現。希望能給你一張照片，安德魯。

Yes. No, really, really complete, so I appreciate that. One very quick one for Luca. The company raised constant currency EPS growth expectations to 12% plus from 10% plus. I guess consensus is already relatively close to the 12% mark. So I guess I'm just curious how investors should think about the plus in the guide.

是的。不，真的非常完整，所以我很感激。對盧卡來說，這是一個非常快的一件事。該公司將固定匯率每股收益增長預期從 10% 以上上調至 12% 以上。我猜共識已經相對接近 12% 大關。所以我想我只是好奇投資者應該如何看待指南中的加號。

Thank you, Andrew. Yes. Before I go to the plus part, maybe briefly to provide some color on what underpins the new outlook. I think there are 3 important drivers to point to in terms of our new outlook. One, it is clearly the strong first half and importantly, the quality of the results we are posting. I'm particularly happy with the operating part of the EPS growth. Second, I think it is really the underlying broad-based trends of our business, the resilience of our brands. I'm happy with volume and value growth and the continued investment. And third, as we mentioned a few times, Europe with price fully landing and in line with expectations.

謝謝你，安德魯。是的。在我進入加分部分之前，也許可以簡單地提供一些關於新前景的基礎的顏色。我認為就我們的新前景而言，有 3 個重要的驅動因素需要指出。第一，這顯然是上半場的強勁表現，重要的是我們發布的結果的質量。我對每股收益增長的運營部分感到特別滿意。其次，我認為這實際上是我們業務的潛在廣泛趨勢，以及我們品牌的彈性。我對數量和價值的增長以及持續的投資感到滿意。第三，正如我們多次提到的，歐洲價格完全下降並符合預期。

So maybe a word briefly by geography. Emerging markets are on a roll. We are quite happy. Some pricing is causing some areas of concern in terms of elasticity, but those are the minority of the market and not really important in the big scheme of things. The U.S. and North America are posting a terrific P&L, and we are very pleased with Clif. And Europe has improved profitability already in Q2, but as we said last quarter, at that time, we had 80% of the price implemented. Now that pricing is 100% secured, we expect volume and revenue growth as well as margin improvement for Europe.

所以也許可以簡單地用地理來概括一下。新興市場正在蓬勃發展。我們很高興。一些定價在彈性方面引起了一些擔憂，但這些只是市場的少數，在大計劃中並不真正重要。美國和北美地區公佈了出色的損益表，我們對 Clif 非常滿意。歐洲在第二季度已經提高了盈利能力，但正如我們上季度所說，當時我們已經實施了 80% 的價格。現在定價已 100% 確定，我們預計歐洲的銷量和收入將增長，利潤率也會提高。

So quite frankly, there is a good chance that we exceed the 12% plus guidance, but I prefer having another quarter under the belt and then narrow guidance for Q4. If all things play out as we have in mind, as I said, there are good chances we will exceed the guidance. Bear in mind that we want to start 2024 strong. And so if there is upside in terms of profitability and EPS, we might decide to reinvest selectively some of the upside to get really a fast start into 2024, too.

因此，坦率地說，我們很有可能超過 12% 以上的指導，但我更喜歡再過一個季度，然後縮小第四季度的指導。正如我所說，如果一切都按照我們的設想進行，我們很有可能會超出指導範圍。請記住，我們希望 2024 年有一個強勁的開局。因此，如果盈利能力和每股收益方面有上升空間，我們可能會決定有選擇地再投資一些上升空間，以便在 2024 年真正快速啟動。

Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

I got 2 questions, 1 on the net interest guidance and the second 1 on Clif. So maybe first one for you, Luca. Net interest expense guidance came down again, I think, by about $20 million versus where we were coming out of 1Q. And I just want to make sure. I think you paid off a $750 million term loan with the KDP proceeds. So is this just simply a function of half a year interest savings on paying the term loan off? Or is there anything else that drove the lower net interest expense?

我收到了 2 個問題，第一個問題是關於淨利息指導，第二個問題是關於 Clif。所以也許第一個適合你，盧卡。我認為，淨利息支出指導再次下降，與第一季度的水平相比，下降了約 2000 萬美元。我只是想確定一下。我認為您用 KDP 收益還清了 7.5 億美元的定期貸款。那麼這僅僅是償還定期貸款半年利息節省的函數嗎？還是還有其他因素導致淨利息支出下降？

No, that is it. It is debt coming down. You're going to see a good leverage as we end the year. We plan to be at like 2.5x that, which is quite good. And yes, it is as simple us paying down the term loan.

不，就是這樣。這是債務下降。當我們年底時，您將看到良好的槓桿作用。我們計劃是這個數字的 2.5 倍，這已經相當不錯了。是的，這就像我們償還定期貸款一樣簡單。

Okay. And then, Dirk, in your prepared comments, you talked about Clif pretty encouragingly, right, in terms of the margins approaching, I guess, the segment level, and then there's more synergy. And then it sounds like you're also expanding on revenue. So can you just maybe give us a little bit of a progress report on kind of where you stand with Clif today relative to where it was when you acquired it? Is your integration and is the acquisition model kind of running ahead of expectations and just how we should think about maybe how impactful Clif might be as we look forward?

好的。然後，德克，在您準備好的評論中，您非常令人鼓舞地談到了克利夫，對吧，就利潤率而言，我猜是接近細分市場水平，然後還有更多的協同作用。聽起來你也在擴大收入。那麼，您能否給我們提供一些進度報告，說明您今天與 Clif 的關係相對於您收購它時的情況？你們的整合和收購模式是否超出了預期？我們應該如何考慮 Clif 在我們未來的預期中可能產生多大的影響力？

Yes. So we've seen in the first half very strong double-digit revenue growth, and the margins, the OI margin versus previous year is up more than 1,000 basis points. So we've increased prices, some of the first thing I would say. We've increased prices more aggressively than Clif would have done historically. We increased prices in August, in January and another one later in Q1. And so we see low elasticity, I would say. So that's having a big impact.

是的。因此，我們在上半年看到了非常強勁的兩位數收入增長，並且 OI 利潤率與去年相比增長了 1,000 個基點以上。所以我們提高了價格，這是我首先要說的一些事情。我們提高價格的力度比克利夫以往的做法還要大。我們在八月份、一月份提高了價格，並在第一季度晚些時候又提高了價格。所以我想說，我們看到彈性很低。所以這有很大的影響。

The second big thing that we are doing is the service has improved. We reduced SKUs. And we started to operate the plants a little bit better, and so that has given to a good increase in the service level. Then we changed the promotional plan. That has successfully kicked off. Fourth thing is that our media buying is more efficient than theirs. So we were able to also get some benefits from that.

我們正在做的第二件大事是服務的改善。我們減少了 SKU。我們開始更好地運營工廠，從而大大提高了服務水平。然後我們改變了促銷計劃。至此已經成功拉開了帷幕。第四件事是我們的媒體購買比他們更有效率。所以我們也能夠從中獲得一些好處。

So those are some of the things we've done. The integration is taking place in a number of steps. Like a big one is the systems integration later on in the year. But so far, where we have streamlined the teams and we've brought more clarity on how we want to operate the business, that is all going well.

這些是我們所做的一些事情。整合分多個步驟進行。今年晚些時候的系統集成就像一件大事。但到目前為止，我們已經精簡了團隊，並且更加明確了我們希望如何運營業務，一切進展順利。

But as we said in the prepared remarks, that the real benefit of the cost synergies is still largely to come. We've already seen some benefits, but it's in the second half of this year and beginning of next year that we will get the real benefit from it. So I would say you can probably make the calculation. It's close to a $1 billion business. That improves its margin by the amount that I was quoting, so that will have a reasonable impact on the total company.

但正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，成本協同效應的真正好處仍然在很大程度上尚未到來。我們已經看到了一些好處，但要到今年下半年和明年初我們才能從中獲得真正的好處。所以我想說你大概可以計算一下。這是一項接近 10 億美元的業務。這會提高我引用的金額，從而對整個公司產生合理的影響。

Our next question comes from David Palmer with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

A question on Europe pricing and the impact on volume. You mentioned the pricing is complete. How are you thinking about the volume for that region in the second half given that some of that disruption is behind you and you're lapping some disruption in the second half versus '22?

關於歐洲定價及其對銷量影響的問題。您提到定價已完成。考慮到一些干擾已經過去，並且與 22 世紀相比，您在下半場經歷了一些干擾，您如何看待下半年該地區的交易量？

Yes. So as I said, we don't really give volume guidance per region, but we would see some solid volume growth in the second half driven by exactly the factors that you were saying. So we have the pricing negotiations behind us. That pricing will be implemented. The disruption is gone. Last year, in the second half, we increased our prices in Europe, and we had more disruption. We will lap that. So that's going to have a benefit for us. We have elasticities in Europe that are relatively benign. So despite the newly implemented pricing, we don't think that that's going to have a major effect on the volume. So without giving you the number, it's going to be a nice solid volume growth for the second half.

是的。正如我所說，我們並沒有真正給出每個地區的銷量指導，但我們會看到下半年銷量的穩步增長，正是您所說的因素推動的。所以我們已經完成了定價談判。該定價將被實施。干擾消失了。去年下半年，我們提高了歐洲的價格，造成了更多的干擾。我們會圈住它。所以這對我們來說是有好處的。歐洲的彈性相對較好。因此，儘管新實施了定價，但我們認為這不會對銷量產生重大影響。因此，在沒有給您具體數字的情況下，下半年的銷量將出現良好的穩定增長。

And then I couldn't help but notice, you featured cake and pastries a couple of times in your slides. And it seems like a logical extension to have Oreo have a snack cake, but I wonder how big could your aspirations be in that category. It doesn't seem as big as some of your other categories. So I'm wondering, do you see snack cakes and pastries being an ongoing sizable growth contributor? And maybe give us a sense of how you think about the TAM there, the opportunity there and how you're going to go about it.

然後我忍不住注意到，你在幻燈片中多次提到了蛋糕和糕點。讓奧利奧吃點心蛋糕似乎是​​一個合乎邏輯的延伸，但我想知道你在這一類別中的願望有多大。它看起來不像其他一些類別那麼大。所以我想知道，您是否認為零食蛋糕和糕點是持續可觀的增長貢獻者？也許可以讓我們了解一下您如何看待那裡的 TAM、那裡的機會以及您將如何去做。

Yes. So well, first of all, cakes and pastries is not a small category. It's not the size of biscuits, but it's not too far away from it. And so it's a big opportunity around the world. It's a very fragmented category with sometimes relatively commoditized products in there. But there is a real opportunity to bring strong brands with high-quality products. And so that's really the play that we're going forward through an Oreo Airy Cake in China or Cakesters here in the U.S. or Give & Go in the fresh section or a Chipita in Europe with prepackaged croissants for instance.

是的。那麼好吧，首先，蛋糕和糕點並不是一個小類別。雖然沒有餅乾那麼大，但也相差不遠了。因此，這對全世界來說都是一個巨大的機遇。這是一個非常分散的類別，有時其中有相對商品化的產品。但這是一個真正的機會，可以為強大的品牌帶來高質量的產品。因此，這確實是我們正在推進的策略，比如在中國推出 Oreo Airy Cake，在美國推出 Cakesters，在生鮮區推出 Give & Go，或者在歐洲推出帶有預包裝牛角麵包的 Chipita。

So we think that there is a whole play for us there. At the moment, we're around the 3%, 4% market share of the whole category, so plenty of room to go. With that, we are already the #2 player, and so that indicates how fragmented it is. The category itself has been growing quite nicely over the past 3 years. It is a category that exists across all markets. It covers different occasions than our typical biscuits and chocolate, so that makes it very interesting for them.

所以我們認為這對我們來說是一個完整的遊戲。目前，我們在整個類別的市場份額約為 3%、4%，因此還有很大的發展空間。至此，我們已經是排名第二的玩家，這表明它是多麼分散。該類別本身在過去三年中增長得相當不錯。這是一個存在於所有市場的類別。它涵蓋了與我們典型的餅乾和巧克力不同的場合，所以這對他們來說非常有趣。

And so we think with these new quality products and our brands, we can really make a significant impact. And I'm not going to give an exact number, but we would expect that our cakes and pastry business in the coming year should double or triple and lift us up to close to a 10% market share. So for us, it's going to be a significant contribution to the growth of the company.

因此，我們認為憑藉這些新的優質產品和我們的品牌，我們確實可以產生重大影響。我不會給出確切的數字，但我們預計來年我們的蛋糕和糕點業務將增加一倍或三倍，並使我們的市場份額達到接近 10%。因此，對我們來說，這將為公司的發展做出重大貢獻。

Our next question comes from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯·戈德曼。

I wanted to ask, as we look at the futures charts for cocoa and sugar, they might indicate that, theoretically, right, down the road, some additional pricing might be needed to offset more inflation. I appreciate you're not in a position today, right, to talk about pricing that hasn't been announced. But just conceptually, is there any reason to think that you wouldn't be able or willing to, if needed, raise list prices again, especially if European elasticities, I guess, maybe aren't that bad and you're -- given your commentary about some improve or improving consumer confidence?

我想問，當我們查看可可和糖的期貨圖表時，它們可能表明，從理論上講，未來可能需要一些額外的定價來抵消更多的通貨膨脹。我很高興您今天無法談論尚未公佈的定價。但僅從概念上講，是否有任何理由認為，如果需要的話，您將無法或不願意再次提高標價，特別是如果歐洲的彈性，我想，也許並沒有那麼糟糕，而且您——給定您對某些改善或提高消費者信心的評論？

Thank you for the question, Ken. Look, the increase in sugar and cocoa specifically is material. I mean we are talking about most likely a 30-plus percent if you look at the last 12 months or even more, particularly in cocoa. I think when you look at the quality of the brands, we said the fact that we had invested materially around the world in our brands, the fact that there are strong bonds with consumers, and I believe pricing is -- will be a necessity in chocolate.

謝謝你的提問，肯。看，糖和可可的增加特別重要。我的意思是，如果你看看過去 12 個月甚至更長的時間，我們談論的很可能是 30% 以上，尤其是可可。我認為，當你審視品牌的質量時，我們說我們在世界各地對我們的品牌進行了大量投資，與消費者建立了牢固的聯繫，而且我相信定價將是必要的巧克力。

I'm not going to elaborate on the details. Also, bear in mind that, particularly in emerging markets, we are going to be very mindful about not vacating price point, and so we will use RGM. And then over the last couple of years, I would say we have learned the ins and outs of implementing pricing around the world. And I think it is needed, and we're going to do it most likely.

我不打算詳細說明細節。另外，請記住，特別是在新興市場，我們將非常注意不要騰出價格點，因此我們將使用 RGM。在過去的幾年裡，我想說我們已經了解了在世界各地實施定價的細節。我認為這是必要的，而且我們很可能會這樣做。

And then just one quick follow-up. Are there any peculiarities or cadence issues we should think about that are not necessarily obvious? Just as we model 3Q versus 4Q, any timing or headwinds or tailwinds that might not be apparent at first glance if I could say it?

然後只是一個快速跟進。是否有任何我們應該考慮但不一定顯而易見的特殊性或節奏問題？正如我們對第三季度和第四季度進行建模一樣，如果我可以說出來的話，乍一看可能並不明顯的任何時機或逆風或順風？

No. Look, I don't think there is anything that you're going to see in terms of outliers that are going to cause material issues or material opportunities in Q3. You're going to see a volume rebound in Europe. As a consequence, I think, obviously, there is going to be a better situation for the totality of the company.

不，我認為您不會在第三季度看到任何會導致重大問題或重大機會的異常值。您將看到歐洲的銷量反彈。因此，我認為，顯然，整個公司的情況將會更好。

I'm not going to guide you exactly on gross profit, but you're going to see double-digit, most likely, revenue growth and double-digit EBIT growth. Below the line, the items can vary. But I think when you really look at Q3, Q4, you're going to see strong operating gains coming through the P&L.

我不會準確地指導您毛利潤，但您很可能會看到兩位數的收入增長和兩位數的息稅前利潤增長。線下方的項目可能會有所不同。但我認為，當你真正關注第三季度和第四季度時，你會發現損益錶帶來了強勁的運營收益。

And I didn't talk a lot about cash flow but very happy with that, too. And you're going to see us delivering the cash flow despite the $400 million headwind related to the coffee KDP sales.

我沒有過多談論現金流，但對此也很滿意。儘管咖啡 KDP 銷售面臨 4 億美元的阻力，但您仍將看到我們交付現金流。

Our next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券的克里斯·凱里。

So just one follow-up and then just a second question around the guidance commentary. But Luca, I think you said that you expected leverage at the end of the year to be in the 2.5x range. That would be a historically low level for the company. At that level, how should we be thinking about deployment of capital at that point? You repurchase more shares. You have too many deals recently. And clearly, you're doing great work on Clif. So is there low-hanging fruit on what you've already added?

因此，只有一個後續行動，然後是圍繞指導評論的第二個問題。但是盧卡，我想您說過您預計年底的槓桿率將在 2.5 倍範圍內。對於該公司來說，這將是歷史最低水平。在這個層面上，我們應該如何考慮資本的部署？您回購更多股票。最近你的優惠太多了。顯然，你在《克利夫》上做得很好。那麼，您已經添加的內容是否還有容易實現的成果呢？

It just stood out to me that you'll be trending toward a historically low level of leverage. And at that point, I think there's going to be probably some observations around what that capacity could be used for.

對我來說，你的槓桿率將趨向於歷史低位。到那時，我認為可能會針對該容量的用途進行一些觀察。

And then just one other quick follow-up on the EPS upside comment for the full year. There was also a comment just around spending back, right? So like how do you think about, as we get through the year, this concept, okay, there could be some upside, but you're also quite committed to the spending back. Like where does that kind of tension play out, right? Volumes get weaker. You're going to spend back more. If not, there's some upside. Just maybe any context on that as well. So thanks for that on the leverage and just the upside versus investment.

然後是對全年每股收益上行評論的另一個快速跟進。還有一個關於消費回來的評論，對嗎？所以，就像你如何看待，當我們度過這一年時，這個概念，好吧，可能會有一些好處，但你也非常致力於收回支出。就像這種緊張感在哪裡發揮出來，對嗎？成交量變弱。你會花更多的錢回來。如果沒有，還有一些好處。也許還有任何相關的背景。因此，感謝槓桿以及相對於投資的上行空間。

Yes. No, I think the first thing first is the underlying strength of the EBITDA in the business. So we are converting cash quite well from net income that is coming. And that is the first element of the equation. The second one is the fact that we are going to get $1.3-plus billion of proceeds from the gum sale, and that will further enhance the situation. I'm not going to tell you that we are going to run the company forever at this level of leverage, but reality is absent M&A, I think this is most likely a little bit of a new norm.

是的。不，我認為首先是企業 EBITDA 的潛在實力。因此，我們正在從即將到來的淨利潤中很好地轉換現金。這是等式的第一個元素。第二個事實是，我們將從口香糖銷售中獲得超過 13 億美元的收益，這將進一步改善這種情況。我不會告訴你，我們將永遠以這種槓桿水平經營公司，但現實是不存在併購的，我認為這很可能是一種新常態。

What you have also to keep in mind is both in the case of Clif and Ricolino, we are doing quite a good job in terms of integration. And I think deployment of capital behind M&A, particularly, has been something that the company has done well. Capital allocation behind fleet, we quoted a few numbers. I think this is a great opportunity, and it shows that we can generate quite a bit of value through M&A.

您還必須記住的是，無論是 Clif 還是 Ricolino，我們在整合方面都做得很好。我認為，尤其是併購背後的資本部署，是該公司做得很好的事情。資本配置背後的機隊，我們引用了幾個數字。我認為這是一個很好的機會，它表明我們可以通過併購產生相當多的價值。

We don't control necessarily time of M&A. But on the M&A, if something comes along, we're going to be on it. Also, bear in mind that there are parts of the portfolio that we might decide eventually to divest down the road. So I think from a leverage standpoint, we are really in a good shape. The EPS upside, the -- one of the things I believe that is delivering volume growth for us, it is the fact that, yes, we price, but we continue to invest in the business not only in terms of A&C but also quality and other things. We talked a little bit earlier in the year about the Milka relaunch in Europe and the improved formula as one example.

我們不一定控制併購的時間。但在併購方面，如果有進展，我們就會參與其中。另外，請記住，我們最終可能會決定剝離投資組合的某些部分。所以我認為從槓桿的角度來看，我們的狀況確實很好。每股收益的上漲，我相信為我們帶來銷量增長的因素之一，事實是，是的，我們定價，但我們繼續投資於業務，不僅在 A&C 方面，而且在質量和其他事情。今年早些時候，我們曾討論過在歐洲重新推出 Milka 以及改良配方的事例。

And what I meant by EPS upside is we clearly have in mind the fact that we might have a little bit of headroom in terms of profitability. And we want to use a little bit of that headroom selectively in some places to really go after incremental distribution opportunities, to really go after incremental investments such as we get a good start into 2024. It will be on a case by case, but we consistently ask around the business, do you have opportunities to accelerate. And we do it on a quarterly basis, and so stay tuned. You'll learn more as we post Q3 results.

我所說的每股收益上漲的意思是，我們清楚地意識到我們在盈利能力方面可能還有一點空間。我們希望在某些地方有選擇地利用一點空間來真正追求增量分銷機會，真正追求增量投資，例如我們在 2024 年有一個良好的開端。這將根據具體情況而定，但我們不斷詢問周圍的企業，你是否有機會加速。我們每季度都會進行一次，敬請期待。當我們發布第三季度的結果時，您將了解更多信息。

Our next question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

Look, I want to pull on that thread you just brought up, the opportunity to drive accelerating growth, invest, find distribution. I believe in the past, you've outlined some of the distribution opportunities you see in front of you in Brazil and Southeast Asia and India as well as the opportunity that's coming on the back of the Ricolino acquisition. Can you update us on where those opportunities lie, how much progress you've made and how much progress is to be had?

看，我想利用您剛才提到的線索，推動加速增長、投資、尋找分銷的機會。我相信您過去已經概述了您在巴西、東南亞和印度看到的一些分銷機會，以及收購 Ricolino 後出現的機會。您能否向我們介紹一下這些機會在哪裡、您已經取得了多少進展以及還有多少進展？

Yes. The opportunities typically lie in the emerging markets in the first place. And so the countries that you should be thinking about are India and China where we have been going at the rate of well over 100,000 to 200,000 new stores every year. That is going to continue, that speed at which we continue to grow. We do the same in Southeast Asia, and we're also looking at opportunities to do something similar in Latin America. So that's the #1 driver of what we think. And you should think about it at the same pace as what it has been in the last 2, 3 years.

是的。機會通常首先存在於新興市場。因此，您應該考慮的國家是印度和中國，我們每年在這兩個國家開設超過 100,000 至 200,000 家新店。這種情況將繼續下去，我們繼續以這種速度增長。我們在東南亞做了同樣的事情，我們也在尋找機會在拉丁美洲做類似的事情。這就是我們認為的第一大驅動因素。你應該以過去兩三年同樣的速度來思考這個問題。

The second one is, we call it going broader, which means that we can start to increase the range of our products that are available in stores, also, again, largely in emerging markets. That's another big driver of our distribution. China has started to do that in the last 2, 3 years. And that's going pretty well for us. And so that's a second sort of front that we are working on around the world.

第二個是，我們稱之為更廣泛，這意味著我們可以開始增加商店中出售的產品範圍，而且主要是在新興市場。這是我們分銷的另一個重要推動力。中國在過去的兩三年裡已經開始這樣做了。這對我們來說進展順利。這是我們在世界各地開展工作的第二種戰線。

And then the last one is the acquisitions where we are starting to do test and learn with these products in different markets around the world. So we have a number of tests and learns going on in Chipita. We have some Grenade test and learns. We will have some Clif test and learns around the world. And we are expecting that from that, we will learn which countries those would have a big opportunity to start being distributed. So that, you should see as a third front.

最後一項是收購，我們開始在全球不同市場對這些產品進行測試和學習。因此，我們在奇皮塔進行了許多測試和學習。我們進行了一些手榴彈測試並學習。我們將進行一些 Clif 測試並在世界各地學習。我們期望從中了解哪些國家將有很大的機會開始分發。因此，您應該將其視為第三條戰線。

In the first 2, 3 years, I wouldn't expect that you would see a major impact on our numbers. But later on, as these things take shape, I think that will start to play a significant role. If I think order of magnitude that you should think about it, if I think about in India or in China, I would say 1/3 of the growth is driven by distribution expansion. So that gives you an order of magnitude.

在最初的兩三年裡，我預計不會對我們的數字產生重大影響。但後來，隨著這些事情的形成，我認為這將開始發揮重要作用。如果我認為你應該考慮一下這個數量級，如果我考慮在印度或中國，我會說 1/3 的增長是由分銷擴張推動的。這給了你一個數量級。

Our next question comes from John Baumgartner with Mizuho Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的約翰·鮑姆加特納。

I wanted to stick with the emerging markets, but maybe in the context of local brands. It looks as though the market share growth has stalled out a bit in the last couple of quarters, at least in Europe. And maybe that's a function of the success of global brands sort of crowding out the locals. But if you could elaborate there, just on resource allocation, where you are at this point, what are the expectations for locals across the portfolio going forward and how you think about the ability for globals and locals to grow share simultaneously? Because I think, historically, the largest opportunities you have to recover lost share in locals is Eastern Europe, Asia, chocolate biscuits. So curious about your thoughts there.

我想堅持新興市場，但也許是在本土品牌的背景下。過去幾個季度，市場份額的增長似乎有點停滯，至少在歐洲是這樣。也許這是全球品牌成功擠出本土品牌的結果。但如果您能詳細說明一下資源配置，您目前處於什麼位置，對整個投資組合中的本地人未來的期望是什麼，以及您如何看待全球和本地人同時增加份額的能力？因為我認為，從歷史上看，你必須恢復在當地人中失去的份額的最大機會是東歐、亞洲的巧克力餅乾。很好奇你的想法。

Yes. So well, first of all, I would say Europe, you have to be a bit careful because you have the whole client disruption going through there. So if our share is affected, that has to see with the client disruption. But if I think about the performance of global and local brands, it is true that global brands have started to grow faster, I would say. We have a number of brands, particularly an Oreo, Milka, Cadbury but also Trident as a gum brand, for example, or Halls, which are recuperating post COVID.

是的。那麼，首先，我想說的是歐洲，你必須要小心一點，因為那裡會造成整個客戶的干擾。因此，如果我們的份額受到影響，那必須與客戶中斷有關。但如果我考慮一下全球和本土品牌的表現，我想說，全球品牌確實已經開始更快增長。我們有很多品牌，特別是奧利奧（Oreo）、米爾卡（Milka）、吉百利（Cadbury），還有口香糖品牌三叉戟（Trident），或者是霍爾斯（Halls），這些品牌在新冠疫情后正在恢復元氣。

So you have a number of global brands who -- the Oreo and Milka category is normal, but then you get an extra boost from things like Trident and Halls, which were not growing that much. We, for instance, are also working very hard on our Toblerone premiumization.

所以你有很多全球品牌——奧利奧和米爾卡類別是正常的，但你會從三叉戟和霍爾斯等品牌中獲得額外的推動，這些品牌的增長幅度並不大。例如，我們也在非常努力地致力於我們的 Toblerone 高端化。

So yes, at this stage, global brands are growing faster. They're well into the 20s. While local jewels are probably more in the mid-teens growth, still not bad. But that's a little bit the effect as I explained to you.

所以，是的，在這個階段，全球品牌的增長速度更快。他們已經20多歲了。雖然本地珠寶的增長可能更多是在十幾歲左右，但仍然不錯。但這只是我向你解釋的一點效果。

Does that mean that we have changed our resource allocation? No, not at all. And if anything, we're pushing our local teams to make sure that our local jewels get significant resources allocated to it because we believe that the opportunity is there.

這是否意味著我們已經改變了資源配置？一點都不。如果說有什麼不同的話，那就是我們正在推動當地團隊確保我們當地的珠寶獲得大量資源分配，因為我們相信機會就在那裡。

And so I wouldn't read too much into it. For instance, if you look at the 4-year CAGR, our global brands are double digits, while our local jewels are high single digits, so very close to each other. And that's really what I would point to. So we don't necessarily see anything there that would preoccupy us.

所以我不會對此進行過多的解讀。例如，如果你看一下 4 年的複合年增長率，我們的全球品牌是兩位數，而我們的本地珠寶是高個位數，因此彼此非常接近。這正是我要指出的。所以我們不一定會在那裡看到任何讓我們著迷的東西。

Our last question comes from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

我們的最後一個問題來自邁克爾·萊弗里和派珀·桑德勒。

I just wanted to follow up Dave Palmer's question about bakery. And maybe specifically, just with Give & Go, you mentioned how bringing branded and quality products was sort of the key to unlocking share gains and growth there. But fresh seems less branded and maybe sometimes very little branding. Is it opportunity there? How much can you push that maybe in certain subsegments? And then as far as geographically explaining that, is there an opportunity for that as well?

我只是想跟進戴夫·帕爾默關於麵包店的問題。也許具體來說，就在 Give & Go 中，您提到如何帶來品牌和優質產品是釋放市場份額收益和增長的關鍵。但新鮮似乎品牌較少，有時甚至很少有品牌。那裡有機會嗎？在某些細分市場中你能推動多少？那麼就地理上的解釋而言，是否也有機會呢？

Yes. Well, yes, when I talked about the branded part, I was talking more about the packaged cakes and pastries. And so if you think about Give & Go as a fresh business, branded can play a role, and I can explain you a little bit how we think about that. But it's largely driven through innovation, I would say, the growth of the Give & Go business and extra distribution. So you have to think about Give & Go as a player that makes mini cakes and pastries, so mini cupcakes, mini muffins, mini brownies, mini donuts. And that's a very interesting segment. It's a to-buy segment, and they do a great job in offering a quality product.

是的。嗯，是的，當我談論品牌部分時，我更多地談論的是包裝蛋糕和糕點。因此，如果您將 Give & Go 視為一項新興業務，品牌可以發揮作用，我可以向您解釋一下我們對此的看法。但我想說，這在很大程度上是通過創新推動的，即贈與贈業務的增長和額外的分銷。因此，您必須將 Give & Go 視為製作迷你蛋糕和糕點的玩家，例如迷你紙杯蛋糕、迷你鬆餅、迷你布朗尼蛋糕、迷你甜甜圈。這是一個非常有趣的部分。這是一個購買細分市場，他們在提供優質產品方面做得很好。

Now we can make those products with some of our ingredients. So you can imagine a cupcake with Oreo on top of it. And so the branding can play a role. They've also started to develop their own brands. So it can play a role in Give & Go, but your observation is correct that it's more in the packaged part of things.

現在我們可以用我們的一些成分來生產這些產品。所以你可以想像一個上面有奧利奧的紙杯蛋糕。因此品牌可以發揮作用。他們也開始開發自己的品牌。所以它可以在 Give & Go 中發揮作用，但你的觀察是正確的，它更多的是在事物的包裝部分。

Now the in-store bakery is very interesting for retailers in North America, but it's also happening in other parts of the world. We were in Australia, for instance, and one of the retailers there, their main interest was to talk to us about in-store bakery and how we could activate it together with them. The reason being that the other big benefit of Give & Go business is that it saves on labor. So you now get a product delivered to your store that is freeze and thaw, and you can avoid all the labor in store, and so that drives a big interest from the retailer on top. The consumer sees it as fresh. There is high interest. It's a section they want to increase. So I would certainly confirm that there is a growing interest around the world for fresh bakery.

現在，店內麵包店對於北美的零售商來說非常有趣，但這種情況也在世界其他地區發生。例如，我們在澳大利亞，那裡的零售商之一，他們的主要興趣是與我們談論店內麵包店以及我們如何與他們一起激活它。原因是“Give & Go”業務的另一大好處是它節省了勞動力。因此，您現在可以將冷凍和解凍的產品運送到您的商店，並且您可以避免商店中的所有勞動力，因此這引起了頂級零售商的極大興趣。消費者認為它是新鮮的。有很高的興趣。這是他們想要增加的部分。因此，我肯定會確認世界各地對新鮮麵包店的興趣越來越大。

That's great color. And just a follow-up on emerging markets, too. It sounds like there's strength broadly even in China. But can you just help us understand the Chinese consumer a little bit? Is your performance there doing well a function of a relatively low kind of accessible price point? Is it more food at home that's doing well? Can you just maybe unpack a little bit where the Chinese consumer is and how that fits with your portfolio?

那顏色真棒。這也是新興市場的後續行動。聽起來即使在中國也有廣泛的實力。但您能幫助我們了解一下中國消費者嗎？你們的表現是否良好是因為價格相對較低？是不是家裡的食物多了才好呢？您能否稍微解釋一下中國消費者的定位以及它與您的產品組合的契合度？

Yes, yes. So China grew double digit for us in Q2. One of the key effects that you need to think about is that we have a big gum business there. And as we are coming out of COVID, kind of strange. Nobody talks about COVID anymore in China, but the mobility is coming back, and so we have growth coming on our gum business. And on top of that, we have had a continued strong biscuit growth, which is more home consumption.

是的是的。因此，中國在第二季度為我們帶來了兩位數的增長。您需要考慮的關鍵影響之一是我們在那裡擁有龐大的口香糖業務。當我們從新冠疫情中走出來時，有點奇怪。在中國，沒有人再談論新冠病毒了，但流動性正在恢復，因此我們的口香糖業務出現了增長。最重要的是，我們的餅乾持續強勁增長，這就是更多的家庭消費。

In both cases, we are increasing our share. Biscuits is up almost 1 point in Q2 through very strong brand activations, and we're particularly happy with the success that Chips Ahoy! is having now as our second big biscuit brand next to Oreo in China. And then gum share is up 2.5 points, where we started to do some very targeted activations in lower-tier cities.

在這兩種情況下，我們都在增加我們的份額。通過非常強大的品牌激活，餅乾在第二季度上漲了近 1 個百分點，我們對 Chips Ahoy! 的成功感到特別高興！現已成為繼奧利奧之後我們在中國的第二大餅乾品牌。然後口香糖份額上升了 2.5 個百分點，我們開始在低線城市進行一些非常有針對性的激活。

The other thing that's particular about Chinese that digital commerce is about 20% of sales. And in Q2, digital commerce is starting to -- started to grow quite considerably at a 23% growth rate. So that all points towards -- or on-the-go consumption because in China, digital commerce can be sometimes delivered in a very short period of time but also home consumption of course.

中國的另一件事是，數字商務約佔銷售額的 20%。在第二季度，數字商務開始以 23% 的增長率大幅增長。因此，所有這些都指向移動消費，因為在中國，數字商務有時可以在很短的時間內交付，當然也可以是家庭消費。

The other thing to explain our China growth is that distribution expansion I was talking about in the previous question. So in Q2 alone, we've added 60,000 new stores in the super and mini channels as a part of that go deeper route-to-market strategy.

解釋我們在中國增長的另一件事是我在上一個問題中談到的分銷擴張。因此，僅在第二季度，我們就在超級和迷你渠道中新增了 60,000 家新店，作為深入市場戰略的一部分。

And the last one I would point to is innovation. We launched that Oreo Airy Cake. I talked about it in the prepared remarks. And that's that expansion into baked snacks and cakes and pastries for us.

我要指出的最後一個是創新。我們推出了奧利奧空氣蛋糕。我在準備好的發言中談到了這一點。這就是我們向烘焙零食、蛋糕和糕點的擴展。

So those are all the elements that are driving our Chinese growth. I think it's pretty solid for the quarters and years to come. We can work on all these fronts. We can continue to add distribution. We still have a huge opportunity. We have some interesting innovations coming up. We're getting better and better on our digital commerce. And I think the gum category will really rebound in the coming months, and that will be a boost to our growth there.

這些都是推動中國經濟增長的因素。我認為未來幾個季度和幾年的情況相當穩定。我們可以在所有這些方面開展工作。我們可以繼續添加分發。我們仍然有巨大的機會。我們即將推出一些有趣的創新。我們的數字商務越來越好。我認為口香醣類別將在未來幾個月內真正反彈，這將推動我們在那裡的增長。

As it relates to the consumer, the consumer is clearly -- the confidence is going up. But certainly, they are not yet to the bullishness that they had pre-pandemic. They're not cutting back on volumes, but they are clearly shopping around more, trying to find better deals, and they're also trading up and down as it relates to the pack size. We also see a shift to smaller stores because the quantity that they buy is smaller and they shop with more frequency.

就消費者而言，消費者的信心顯然正在上升。但可以肯定的是，他們還沒有像大流行前那樣樂觀。他們並沒有減少銷量，但顯然他們在貨比三家，試圖找到更好的交易，而且他們還會根據包裝尺寸進行上下交易。我們還看到人們轉向較小的商店，因為他們購買的數量更少，而且購物的頻率更高。

So I would say we are very encouraged by our China business. We have several fronts that allow us to grow. We've done that in the previous years. Those fronts have not been affected. And I believe that you will see some very good results coming from China in the second half of the year.

所以我想說，我們的中國業務讓我們深受鼓舞。我們有幾個方面可以讓我們成長。前幾年我們就這麼做過。這些戰線沒有受到影響。我相信下半年大家會看到中國取得一些非常好的成果。

Okay. Well, thank you with that. I think we can conclude the call for the second quarter. Thank you so much for assisting, and thank you for the confidence in the company.

好的。嗯，謝謝你。我認為我們可以結束第二季度的電話會議。非常感謝您的協助，也感謝您對公司的信任。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation, and you may disconnect at any time.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與，您可以隨時斷開連接。