億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Sir, please go ahead.

各位來賓，歡迎參加億滋國際2022年第三季財報電話會議。本次電話會議預計持續約1小時，包括億滋管理階層的發言和問答環節。 （操作說明）現在我將把電話交給億滋投資者關係副總裁謝普·鄧拉普先生。先生，請發言。

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides, which are available on our website.

下午好，感謝各位的到來。今天陪同我的是我們的董事長兼執行長德克·范德普特先生，以及我們的財務長盧卡·扎拉梅拉先生。今天早些時候，我們已發布了新聞稿和演示文稿，您可以在我們的網站上查看。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將就公司績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們目前的判斷。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。有關前瞻性陳述的更多詳情，請參閱我們提交的10-K、10-Q和8-K文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。

As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results. In addition, we provide our year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis unless otherwise noted. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our Q3 2022 earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

今天在討論績效時，除非另有說明，我們將使用非GAAP財務指標，這些指標已根據GAAP績效中的某些項目進行了調整。此外，除非另有說明，我們將以固定匯率為基礎提供年增率資料。您可以在2022年第三季財報和本次簡報的結尾找到對應的GAAP指標以及GAAP與非GAAP指標的調節表。

Today, Dirk will provide a business and strategy update, then Luca will review our financial results and outlook. We will close with Q&A. I'll now turn the call over to Dirk.

今天，Dirk將帶來業務和策略的最新進展，之後Luca將回顧我們的財務表現和展望。最後是問答環節。現在我將把電話會議交給Dirk。

Thanks, Shep, and thanks to everyone for joining the call today. I will start on Slide 4. I am pleased to share that we delivered another robust quarter with high quality top line growth, continued strength in both developed and emerging markets and strong profit dollar growth. This execution, combined with continued acceleration of our strategic initiatives, supports raising our full year revenue growth and adjusted EPS outlook.

謝謝Shep，也謝謝各位今天參加電話會議。我將從第四張投影片開始。我很高興地告訴大家，我們又迎來了一個強勁的季度，營收實現了高品質的成長，發達市場和新興市場均保持了強勁勢頭，利潤也實現了顯著增長。這項業績，加上我們策略性舉措的持續加速推進，支撐了我們上調全年營收成長和調整後每股收益預期。

Reinvesting in our business is one of the best ways we can deploy capital. And I'm happy to say that we continue to increase investments in our brands and capabilities that should reinforce and build upon our strong foundation. We also continue to make great progress in reshaping our portfolio with the full integration of our Chipita business as well as the closing of our acquisitions of Clif Bar and Ricolino. We remain confident that the strength of our brands and our proven strategy position us well to deliver attractive, sustainable growth for the remainder of 2022 and beyond. Above all, we remain extremely confident in our people who remain relentlessly focused on delivering the right snacks for the right moment made the right way to consumers around the world.

對業務進行再投資是我們部署資本的最佳方式之一。我很高興地宣布，我們將繼續增加對旗下品牌和能力的投資，這將鞏固並拓展我們強大的基礎。同時，隨著Chipita業務的全面整合以及Clif Bar和Ricolino收購的完成，我們在重塑產品組合方面也取得了顯著進展。我們堅信，憑藉強大的品牌實力和行之有效的策略，我們有能力在2022年剩餘時間及以後實現可持續的、具有吸引力的成長。最重要的是，我們對員工充滿信心，他們總是致力於在適當的時機，以適當的方式，為全球消費者提供適當的點心。

Turning to Slide 5. You can see that our strategy is continuing to drive a virtuous cycle. We are well positioned to deliver a strong full year '22 performance and long-term revenue growth. This quarter, our revenue growth was 12.1%, which means 11.2% growth year-to-date. The revenue was generated through continued volume growth as well as strong pricing necessary because of ongoing cost inflation, and it demonstrates the resilient demand for our brands. That revenue growth is fueling our gross profit, which is growing 12.8% for the quarter and 10.8% year-to-date.

請看幻燈片5。您可以看到，我們的策略正在持續推動良性循環。我們已做好充分準備，實現2022年全年強勁的業績和長期的營收成長。本季度，我們的營收成長了12.1%，年初至今成長了11.2%。收入成長得益於銷售的持續成長以及因成本持續上漲而不得不採取的強勢定價策略，這充分體現了市場對我們品牌的強勁需求。營收成長也帶動了毛利的成長，本季毛利成長了12.8%，年初至今成長了10.8%。

This very strong gross profit growth is allowing us to increase our A&C investments high single digit, which in turn will help us to continue to drive sustainable top line and repeating the virtuous cycle. The strong gross profit growth also generated, after investments, operating income growth of 9.6% for the quarter and 10.6% year-to-date while delivering great free cash flow results.

強勁的毛利成長使我們能夠將建築和施工投資提高近兩位數，這反過來又將有助於我們持續推動營收成長，並形成良性循環。強勁的毛利成長在扣除投資後，也帶來了本季9.6%的營業收入成長和年初至今10.6%的營業收入成長，同時也帶來了可觀的自由現金流。

As you can see on Slide 6, we delivered 12.1% organic net revenue growth in Q3. Volume remained solid relative to much of the sectors as consumers continue to choose our trusted and beloved brands even as we implement necessary pricing. We view our performance in the third quarter and year-to-date as further evidence that our long-term strategy continues to pay off. Since the launch of our new growth plan in 2018, we have consistently over-delivered on net revenue growth through a virtuous cycle of increasing investment, strong local execution and targeted incentives. We remain confident that this strategy will continue to deliver attractive growth in the quarters and years to come.

如投影片6所示，我們第三季實現了12.1%的有機淨收入成長。儘管我們實施了必要的定價策略，但由於消費者依然選擇我們值得信賴且備受喜愛的品牌，我們的銷售量相對於大多數行業而言依然保持穩健。我們認為第三季和年初至今的業績進一步證明了我們的長期策略持續奏效。自2018年推出新的成長計畫以來，我們透過不斷增加投資、強而有力的在地化執行和有針對性的激勵措施，形成良性循環，持續超額完成淨收入成長目標。我們仍然相信，這項策略將在未來幾季和幾年內繼續帶來可觀的成長。

Like many companies, as shown on Slide 7, we continue to navigate through a dynamic operating environment, driven by cost inflation, the energy crisis in Europe and supply chain volatility. Let's take a closer look at each of these dynamics and the steps we are taking to address them. First, we continue to face elevated input cost inflation, especially in the areas of energy, transportation, packaging, wheat, dairy and edible oils. To offset these challenges, we have implemented appropriate price increases across key markets, including Europe.

如幻燈片7所示，與許多公司一樣，我們持續面臨動態的經營環境，其主要驅動因素包括成本上漲、歐洲能源危機和供應鏈波動。讓我們仔細分析這些動態因素以及我們為應對它們所採取的措施。首先，我們持續面臨高企的投入成本上漲，尤其是在能源、運輸、包裝、小麥、乳製品和食用油等領域。為了應對這些挑戰，我們已在包括歐洲在內的主要市場實施了適當的價格上調。

Additionally, we have announced further pricing actions across numerous markets across the globe, including the United States, which takes effect in December '22, and we are preparing for '23 negotiations in other markets. We also continue to take appropriate action to hedge our commodity costs with greater flexibility while continuing to advance our ongoing productivity initiatives.

此外，我們已宣佈在全球多個市場（包括美國）採取進一步的價格調整措施，這些措施將於2022年12月生效。同時，我們也為2023年在其他市場的談判做準備。我們也將繼續採取適當措施，以更靈活的方式對沖大宗商品成本，並持續推進各項生產力提升計畫。

Second, in terms of energy inflation and continuity, we remain focused on risk management tools and alternative sources to help mitigate the impact. And third, we continue to manage through volatility in the supply chain, especially in the U.S. due to labor shortages at third party as well as a continuing shortage of trucking capacity and containers. We are prioritizing key SKUs to protect share and continue to make progress in improving manufacturing and warehouse capacity.

其次，在能源通膨和供應穩定性方面，我們將繼續專注於風險管理工具和替代能源，以幫助減輕其影響。第三，我們持續應對供應鏈的波動，尤其是在美國，由於第三方勞動力短缺以及卡車運力和貨櫃持續短缺，供應鏈波動尤為顯著。我們優先保障關鍵產品（SKU）的市場份額，並持續提升生產和倉儲能力。

Turning to our categories and the consumer on Page 8. Our latest research shows that snacking continues to play a central role in consumers' lives. And as a result, our core categories of chocolate and biscuits remain resilient. Consumers in developed markets continue to prioritize groceries over other forms of spending, and they continue to view our brands as affordable indulgences. Meanwhile, in emerging markets, consumer confidence remains strong with growing demand for our categories and continued loyalty to our iconic brands.

請參閱第 8 頁，以了解我們的產品類別和消費者狀況。我們最新的研究表明，零食在消費者的生活中仍然扮演著重要角色。因此，我們的巧克力和餅乾等核心品類依然保持強勁勢頭。已開發市場的消費者仍然將食品雜貨的支出優先於其他支出項目，並且他們仍然將我們的品牌視為價格適中的美味享受。同時，在新興市場，消費者信心仍然強勁，對我們產品類別的需求不斷增長，對我們標誌性品牌的忠誠度也持續高漲。

Because of this enduring brand loyalty, private label share is either flat or down in the vast majority of our markets. Shoppers continue to say they are much less likely to switch to private label in chocolate and biscuits compared to other categories. With the return to school, we are seeing growth in products popular for school lunches like biscuit multipacks here in the U.S. We're also seeing continued growth in chocolate bars, treat sizes, gifting and seasonal shapes in Europe.

由於消費者對品牌的忠誠度始終很高，自有品牌在絕大多數市場的佔有率不是持平，就是有所下降。消費者表示，與其他類別相比，他們不太可能轉向購買巧克力和餅乾等自有品牌產品。隨著開學季的到來，我們看到美國一些深受學生歡迎的午餐食品，例如多包裝餅乾，銷量有所增長。在歐洲，我們也看到巧克力棒、小包裝零食、禮品裝和季節性造型產品持續成長。

Looking forward to the Christmas season, the majority of European consumers say they plan to spend the same amount over the holidays, if not more, as in 2021. They also say they plan to spend more money at home and on gifting with less money spent on dining out and entertainment. These category dynamics combined with the enduring strength of our trusted and beloved brands give us confidence that we will continue to successfully navigate inflationary periods like today.

展望聖誕季，大多數歐洲消費者表示，他們計劃在節日期間的支出與2021年持平，甚至更高。他們也表示，計劃將更多資金用於居家消費和禮品贈送，減少外食和娛樂的支出。這些市場動態，加上我們值得信賴且深受喜愛的品牌經久不衰的實力，讓我們有信心繼續成功應對類似當今的通膨時期。

Moving to our efforts around portfolio reshaping on Slide 9. I'm pleased to share that we are continuing to advance our strategy of strengthening our leadership in core categories through our acquisition and divestment approach complemented by strong integration playbook. Over the summer, we completed the integration of Chipita, a high-growth European leader in packaged croissants and baked snacks. Chipita provides us an important platform to further accelerate growth in the attractive biscuits and baked snacks category.

接下來，我們將在第9頁介紹我們圍繞產品組合重組所做的努力。我很高興地告訴大家，我們正持續推動透過收購和剝離策略，並輔以強而有力的整合方案，來鞏固我們在核心品類中的領先地位。今年夏天，我們完成了Chipita的整合。 Chipita是一家高成長的歐洲包裝羊角麵包和烘焙零食領導者。 Chipita為我們提供了一個重要的平台，可以進一步加速我們在極具吸引力的餅乾和烘焙零食品類中的成長。

More recently, we closed our acquisition of Clif Bar & Company, expanding our global snack bar business to more than $1 billion, anchored by the marquee brand widely loved for taste and sustainability. This business is up low double digits on a year-to-date basis and we are excited to take this great brand to the next level. And just today, we closed our acquisition of Ricolino, Mexico's leading confectionary company, doubling the size of our business and more than tripling our routes to market in the high-priority Mexican market.

最近，我們完成了對Clif Bar & Company的收購，使我們的全球零食棒業務規模擴大至超過10億美元，該業務的核心是深受消費者喜愛的知名品牌，其美味和可持續性備受讚譽。今年迄今為止，該業務實現了兩位數的低成長，我們很高興能將這個優秀的品牌推向新的高度。就在今天，我們完成了對墨西哥領先的糖果公司Ricolino的收購，使我們的業務規模翻了一番，並在我們高度重視的墨西哥市場拓展了三倍多的銷售管道。

These are just the latest steps in our ongoing commitment to accelerate focus on our core categories, filling geographical white spaces, expanding our presence in high-growth channels and growing our presence in key segments and price tiers. We're confident that this focus will allow us to drive sustained growth accretive to our algorithm across the portfolio.

這些舉措只是我們持續致力於加速聚焦核心品類、填補地域空白、拓展高成長通路以及提升關鍵細分市場和價格層級市場份額的最新舉措。我們相信，這項策略重點將助力我們實現全線產品演算法的持續成長。

As we continue to accelerate our focus on growth, we remain committed to doing our part to drive positive change at scale. At our investor update earlier this year, we announced that we have elevated sustainability to become the fourth pillar of our company's long-term growth strategy. Within this framework, you can see on Slide 10 that we recently launched the next chapter of Cocoa Life, our signature cocoa sourcing program.

在我們持續加速成長的同時，我們始終致力於為推動大規模積極變革貢獻力量。在今年稍早的投資者更新會上，我們宣布已將永續發展提升為公司長期成長策略的第四大支柱。在此框架下，您可以在第10頁幻燈片中看到，我們近期啟動了「可可生活」（Cocoa Life）計畫的新篇章，這是我們標誌性的可可採購計畫。

Cocoa Life already has delivered strong results. Over the past decade, farmer net incomes have increased about 15% in Ghana and about 33% in Côte d'Ivoire. Children are better protected with more robust monitoring and remediation system, and we're helping to prevent deforestation by educating farmers about optimal farming practices. But cocoa farmers and their communities still face big systemic challenges. That's why we're investing another $600 million, bringing our total investments to $1 billion with an aim to source 100% of our cocoa volume through Cocoa Life farmers by 2030.

「可可生活」計畫已取得顯著成效。過去十年間，加納農民的淨收入增加了約15%，科特迪瓦農民的淨收入增加了約33%。更完善的監測和補救體系為兒童提供了更好的保護，我們也透過向農民普及最佳耕作方法來幫助防止森林砍伐。但可可種植戶及其社區仍面臨巨大的系統性挑戰。因此，我們將追加投資6億美元，使總投資額達到10億美元，目標是到2030年實現100%的可可豆供應來自「可可生活」計畫的農民。

While we are excited about the promise of these investments, we continue to call for more collaborative efforts and collective actions to drive greater impact, including new private-public collaborations. We are proud of our leadership in helping to make cocoa right, and we'll keep you updated on our progress.

我們對這些投資的前景感到振奮，同時也呼籲各方加強合作，採取集體行動，以產生更大的影響，包括建立新的公私合作關係。我們為自身在推動可可產業發展方面所發揮的領導作用感到自豪，並將持續向您報告最新進展。

Finally, before I hand over to Luca for more details on our financials, I would like to make -- sorry, to take a moment to share some updates to our leadership team. First, I would like to congratulate Sandra MacQuillan, our Chief Supply Chain Officer, on her well-deserved retirement. Since joining Mondelez in 2019, Sandra has brought focus and clarity to our supply chain organization, with a people-first leadership style and an unrelenting commitment to doing it right from shelf to field. We thank her for her tremendous contributions.

最後，在將財務細節交給盧卡之前，我想——抱歉，應該說是想佔用一點時間，向我們的領導團隊報告一些最新情況。首先，我要祝賀我們的首席供應鏈官桑德拉·麥奎蘭女士光榮退休，這是她應得的。自2019年加入億滋國際以來，桑德拉以人為本的領導風格和對從貨架到終端環節一絲不苟的堅持，為我們的供應鏈組織帶來了清晰的思路和明確的方向。我們衷心感謝她所做的巨大貢獻。

Frank Cervi has assumed the role of Chief Supply Chain Operations Officer, reporting directly to me. Frank is a proven leader, bringing more than 30 years of global supply chain experience to the table. He has a strong drive for executional excellence, tackling big challenges and pursuing continuous improvement. His recent roles within Mondelez, including, most recently, leading supply chain strategy, position him well for continued success.

弗蘭克·塞爾維已就任首席供應鏈營運官，直接向我報告。弗蘭克是一位經驗豐富的領導者，擁有超過30年的全球供應鏈經驗。他追求卓越執行，勇於應對重大挑戰，並致力於持續改善。他近期在億滋國際擔任的職務，包括最近領導供應鏈策略，都為他未來的成功奠定了堅實的基礎。

Additionally, after a successful 34-year career in research and development, Rob Hargrove, our Chief R&D Officer, will be retiring January 2023. During his tenure with Mondelez, Rob successfully transformed the R&D function from a complex blend of category and geographic activities to a well-connected, technically rigorous global community. We thank him for his many years of dedication and accomplishments.

此外，在研發領域取得輝煌成就34年後，我們的首席研發長羅伯‧哈格羅夫將於2023年1月退休。在羅伯任職億滋期間，他成功地將研發職能從複雜的品類和地域性活動整合，轉型為一個聯繫緊密、技術嚴謹的全球性團隊。我們衷心感謝他多年來的奉獻和成就。

With Rob's retirement, we welcome Daniel Ramos as our new Chief Research and Development Officer, reporting directly to me effective November 8. Daniel is a seasoned global executive with more than 25 years of R&D and consumer-centric innovation expertise. He joins us from The Estée Lauder Companies where he had a strong focus on advancing sustainable packaging initiatives.

隨著羅布的退休，我們歡迎丹尼爾·拉莫斯先生擔任新的首席研發官，他將於11月8日正式向我報告工作。丹尼爾是一位經驗豐富的全球主管，擁有超過25年的研發和以消費者為中心的創新經驗。他先前任職於雅詩蘭黛公司，主要致力於推動永續包裝項目。

One final piece of leadership news, Javier Polit, our Chief Digital and Information Officer, is now serving on our Mondelez leadership team, providing enhanced strategic oversight as we advance our commitment to becoming the digital snacks leaders. Since joining the company almost 3 years ago, Javier has elevated our technology initiatives and infrastructure at both the global and business unit levels. Javier will continue to report to Luca. With that, I will hand over to Luca for more details on our financials.

最後一條領導層消息是，我們的首席數位和資訊長哈維爾·波利特(Javier Polit)現已加入億滋國際領導團隊，將在我們致力於成為數位化零食行業領導者的過程中，提供更強有力的戰略指導。自從近三年前加入公司以來，哈維爾在全球和業務部門層面都顯著提升了我們的技術舉措和基礎設施。哈維爾將繼續向盧卡報告工作。接下來，我將把時間交給盧卡，讓他詳細介紹我們的財務狀況。

Thank you, Dirk, and good afternoon, everyone. Our third quarter results were strong from volume, revenue, profit dollar growth to cash flow generation. In addition, growth was broad-based across categories and brands. We delivered revenue growth of more than 12% with 1 point of growth driven by volume/mix. Emerging markets were a clear highlight for the quarter with broad-based trends on both top and bottom lines. Emerging markets net revenue grew more than 24% in the quarter, with 8 points of that growth coming from volume/mix. Developed markets grew 5.2%. Volume/mix was down 3 points, entirely as a result of customer disruptions in Europe related to pricing negotiation, nearly all of which has since been resolved.

謝謝Dirk，大家下午好。我們第三季的業績表現強勁，銷量、收入、利潤成長以及現金流均顯著提升。此外，各品類和品牌均實現了全面成長。營收成長超過12%，其中1個百分點的成長來自銷售量/產品組合的最佳化。新興市場是本季的一大亮點，其營收和利潤均呈現全面成長趨勢。新興市場淨收入在本季成長超過24%，其中8個百分點的成長來自銷售/產品組合的最佳化。已開發市場成長5.2%。銷售/產品組合的最佳化效果下降了3個百分點，這完全是由於歐洲客戶在價格談判中遇到的問題所致，不過這些問題目前已基本解決。

Turning to portfolio performance on Slide 13. Our chocolate and biscuit franchises continue to demonstrate their resilience and deliver strong results while ongoing improvements in mobility helped fuel robust gum and candy performance. Biscuits grew 11.5% for the quarter, with nearly 1 point coming from volume, albeit mix was negative as we suffered from customer disruption in Europe. Emerging markets again grew strong double digit, while developed markets increased high single digit. Oreo, Chips Ahoy!, Ritz, Triscuit and Club Social were among brands that deliver outstanding growth.

請參閱第13頁投影片，以了解產品組合表現。我們的巧克力和餅乾業務持續展現韌性，業績強勁；同時，移動出行的持續改善也推動了口香糖和糖果業務的穩健成長。本季餅乾業務成長11.5%，其中近1個百分點來自銷售成長，但由於歐洲市場客戶流失，產品組合出現下滑。新興市場再次實現兩位數的強勁成長，而已開發市場則實現了接近兩位數的成長。奧利奧、趣多多、麗滋、Triscuit和Club Social等品牌均實現了顯著成長。

Chocolate grew more than 9%, of which 1.3 points were driven by volume/mix, with increases in both emerging and developed markets. Emerging markets posted exceptional growth of strong double digit. Cadbury Dairy Milk, Toblerone, Lacta and Bis all grew double digits. Gum & Candy grew more than 22%. Brazil, Mexico, Western Andean and Middle East, North Africa, all performed very well.

巧克力銷售成長超過9%，其中1.3個百分點由銷售/產品組合成長推動，新興市場和已開發市場均實現成長。新興市場表現尤為突出，實現了兩位數的強勁成長。吉百利牛奶巧克力、瑞士三角巧克力、Lacta巧克力和Bis巧克力都實現了兩位數成長。口香糖和糖果銷量成長超過22%。巴西、墨西哥、安第斯西部地區以及中東和北非地區均表現出色。

Now let's review our market share performance on Slide 14. We held or gained share in 45% of our revenue base, which includes 20 points of headwind coming from U.S. supply chain constraints. We are seeing gradual improvements in share and service levels as we closed the quarter and early into the fourth quarter. And in fact, share in the U.S. should turn positive for the last few readings of the year, and we should enter next year with a favorable trajectory.

現在讓我們回顧一下第14頁幻燈片中的市佔率表現。我們在45%的收入來源中維持或提升了市場份額，其中包括來自美國供應鏈限制的20個百分點的不利影響。隨著本季末和第四季初的到來，我們看到市場佔有率和服務水準都在逐步改善。事實上，預計今年最後幾季美國市場的市佔率將轉正，我們有望以良好的發展勢頭進入明年。

Chocolate performed well with 65% of our revenue base holding or gaining share. This number is still reflective of our good execution in the category and our ongoing investment, but some headwinds are expected, given the customer disruption in Europe. Our biscuit business held or gained share in 35% of our revenue base. This includes 35 points of headwinds from the U.S. supply chain.

巧克力業務表現良好，65%的收入份額保持或有所增長。這一數字仍然反映了我們在該品類中良好的執行力和持續的投資，但考慮到歐洲市場的客戶流失，預計會面臨一些不利因素。餅乾業務在35%的收入份額中保持或有所增長。這其中包含了來自美國供應鏈的35個百分點的不利影響。

Now turning to Page 15. In Q3, we posted gross profit dollar growth of plus 13% and plus 10% for EBIT. Year-to-date, we have delivered nearly $900 million in absolute gross profit dollar growth, a record high for our business. This dollar growth enables us to continue investing in brand-building to drive our virtuous cycle of growth. Although organic top line and profit dollar growth are key focus areas, cost excellence remains an important part of our DNA and an enabler in this environment. To that end, we continue to make good progress around digitizing the enterprise and realizing efficiencies, reducing nonessential overhead spend and driving simplification.

現在翻到第15頁。第三季度，我們的毛利年增13%，息稅前利潤較去年同期成長10%。今年迄今，我們的毛利絕對成長額已接近9億美元，創下公司歷史新高。這一成長使我們能夠繼續投資品牌建設，從而推動良性循環的成長。儘管有機營收和利潤成長是重點關注領域，但成本控制仍然是我們企業基因的重要組成部分，也是在當前環境下成功的關鍵因素。為此，我們持續推動企業數位轉型，提高效率，削減不必要的開支，並簡化流程。

Turning to regional performance on Slide 16. Europe grew 5.2% during the quarter. This includes nearly 5 points of volume/mix decline entirely linked to customer disruptions from a round of pricing negotiations during Q3. Importantly, as I already said, we have successfully implemented virtually all of the price planned. We continue to support our brands with meaningful investments in the region to ensure consumers stay loyal to our categories and franchises. OI dollar for the quarter declined by 7.4%, driven by customer volume disruption and ongoing commodity pressure. Now that pricing has been implemented, we expect margin recovery for Europe in Q4.

請參閱第16頁投影片，以了解區域績效。歐洲本季成長5.2%。這其中包括近5個百分點的銷售/產品組合下滑，而這完全是由於第三季價格談判期間客戶需求波動所致。重要的是，正如我之前所說，我們已成功實施了幾乎所有定價計劃。我們將繼續在該地區進行大量投資，以支持旗下品牌，確保消費者對我們的品類和品牌保持忠誠。受顧客需求波動和持續的大宗商品價格壓力影響，本季營業收入下降7.4%。隨著定價策略的實施，我們預計歐洲第四季利潤率將有所回升。

North America grew 12% in Q3, driven by higher pricing in biscuits, strong candy growth and robust increases from our ventures businesses, particularly Tate's and Give & Go. Volume/mix was roughly flat. North America OI increased by more than 20% during the quarter due to higher pricing that was implemented in Q2 as well as some benefits related to the factory closings last year and the addition of Clif. AMEA grew 14.6% for the quarter with strong volume/mix growth of 8.5 points and broad-based growth across all of our business units in the region.

北美地區第三季成長12%，主要得益於餅乾價格上漲、糖果業務強勁成長以及合資企業（尤其是Tate's和Give & Go）的穩健成長。銷售量和產品組合基本持平。北美地區營業收入本季成長超過20%，這主要歸功於第二季實施的漲價措施，以及去年工廠關閉和收購Clif帶來的部分收益。 AMEA地區本季成長14.6%，銷售量和產品組合成長強勁，達8.5個百分點，且該地區所有業務部門均實現全面成長。

India grew strong double digit for the quarter, driven by both chocolate and biscuits. China increased high single digits despite COVID restrictions in certain cities, while Southeast Asia delivered robust double-digit growth across all snacking categories and Australia grew mid-single digit. AMEA increased OI dollars by 17.2% for the quarter as volume leverage and pricing were partially offset by commodity and transportation inflation.

印度本季實現了強勁的兩位數成長，主要得益於巧克力和餅乾的銷售成長。儘管部分城市實施了新冠疫情限制措施，中國市場仍實現了接近兩位數的成長。東南亞所有零食品類均實現了穩健的兩位數成長，而澳洲則實現了中等個位數的成長。由於銷售槓桿和價格上漲部分抵消了商品和運輸成本的上漲，AMEA地區的營業收入本季成長了17.2%。

Latin America grew 31.6% with mid-single-digit volume/mix growth. Similar to Q2, this trend was extensive with double-digit increases across every single category. Brazil, Mexico, Western Andean business unit all posted double-digit increases for the quarter. OI dollars in Latin America grew nearly 50% for the quarter. This increase was driven by broad-based volume growth, pricing and ongoing improvements from the Gum & Candy categories.

拉丁美洲市場成長31.6%，銷量和品類組合均達到中位數個位數成長。與第二季類似，此趨勢十分普遍，所有品類均達到兩位數成長。巴西、墨西哥和安第斯西部業務單位本季均實現兩位數成長。拉丁美洲市場的營業收入本季成長近50%。這一成長主要得益於銷售全面成長、價格上漲以及口香糖和糖果品類的持續改善。

Next to EPS on Slide 17. Q3 EPS grew 15.7% at constant currency. This growth was primarily driven by operating gains. And despite significant currency headwinds, we grew reported dollars by nearly 6% in the quarter and 4% on a year-to-date basis.

第17頁幻燈片旁邊是每股盈餘（EPS）數據。第三季每股收益以固定匯率計算成長了15.7%。這一增長主要得益於營業利潤的提升。儘管面臨顯著的匯率不利因素，我們本季報告的美元收入仍成長了近6%，年初至今成長了4%。

Turning to Slide 18. We remain focused on generating strong free cash flow. Year-to-date, we have generated $1.9 billion, including a onetime expense of $300 million related to the Clif acquisition and buyout of the non-vested employee stock ownership plan. This was part of the originally disclosed purchase price, but as it relates to the ease up for employees and deemed compensation, it is reflected in cash flow. This strong free cash flow performance has enabled us to return $3.3 billion to shareholders year-to-date through share repurchases and dividends.

請看第18頁投影片。我們始終專注於創造強勁的自由現金流。今年迄今，我們已創造19億美元的自由現金流，其中包括與收購Clif以及收購未歸屬員工持股計畫相關的3億美元一次性支出。這筆支出包含在最初揭露的收購價格中，但由於涉及員工薪酬調整和推定補償，因此已反映在現金流中。強勁的自由現金流表現使我們能夠透過股票回購和分紅，在今年迄今向股東返還33億美元。

Turning to our outlook on Page 20. We continue to see positive momentum in the business as a result of our strong position within attractive categories, significant brand support and consistent execution. For the time being, our categories are resilient and continue to see lower elasticities than historical levels. Given the strength of our performance through the first 3 quarters, the successful implementation of pricing in Europe and the overall health of demand trends in our business, we now expect, for the full year: organic net revenue to grow 10%-plus versus our prior outlook of 8%-plus; adjusted EPS to increase 10%-plus versus our previous outlook of mid- to high single digit; and free cash flow of $3 billion-plus, which includes the $300 million of expenses related to the Clif ease-up, which would indicate stronger underlying results.

請參閱第20頁的展望。由於我們在極具吸引力的品類中佔據穩固地位、擁有強大的品牌支持以及始終如一的執行力，我們持續看到業務的積極發展勢頭。目前，我們的品類展現韌性，且需求彈性低於歷史水準。鑑於前三個季度的強勁業績、在歐洲成功實施的定價策略以及整體業務需求趨勢的良好態勢，我們現在預計全年：有機淨收入將增長10%以上，高於此前8%以上的預期；調整後每股收益將增長10%以上，高於此前中高個位數的預期；自由現金流將超過30億美元，其中包括與Clififh相關的3億美元減價，這將更加強勁。

We continue to expect broad-based growth in our core categories and markets. We also expect a significant contribution from pricing, and we continue to plan for double-digit cost inflation. We have just announced another round of pricing in the U.S. to reflect continued inflation and positive impact of our commodities coverage in 2022 seizing current spot levels in 2023. While we successfully concluded our European pricing with disruption below our anticipated levels, inflation continues to be a concern in Europe, particularly with energy, that despite some EU-driven measures is still a significant headwind.

我們持續預期核心品類和市場將實現全面成長。我們也預期價格上漲將做出顯著貢獻，並持續做好應對兩位數成本通膨的準備。我們剛剛宣布了美國市場新一輪定價，以反映持續的通膨以及我們2022年大宗商品覆蓋帶來的正面影響，力爭在2023年達到目前的現貨價格水準。雖然我們已成功完成歐洲定價，且波動幅度低於預期，但通膨仍然是歐洲市場，尤其是能源市場面臨的一大挑戰，儘管歐盟已採取一些措施，但通膨仍然是一個不容忽視的不利因素。

Energies has broad repercussions, both on pack cost and other raw materials. We expect another round of pricing in Europe as we enter next year. Our EPS outlook also now factors in $0.26 of headwinds related to ForEx impact. $0.19 of this amount have already been included in our first 3 quarters. At current ForEx levels and outlook, EPS in reported dollars would be positive year-on-year, which shows the resilience of our business. With that, let's open it up for questions.

能源價格波動對包裝成本和其他原料都產生了廣泛的影響。我們預計明年歐洲市場將迎來新一輪價格波動。我們目前的每股盈餘預期也已計入了匯率波動帶來的0.26美元不利因素。其中0.19美元已計入前三個季度的預期。按照目前的匯率水準和預期，以美元計價的每股盈餘將年增，這反映了我們業務的韌性。接下來，我們歡迎各位提問。

Operator, we're ready for the first question.

接線員，我們準備好回答第一個問題了。

Operator?

操作員？

Our first question comes from Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.

我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭。

All right, great. Maybe just to start off, Dirk, we've -- obviously, there's been a lot of questions in our world around just current events, current affairs. So could you just give us maybe a little bit of an as-you-see-it-now kind of the state of the union in some of your key markets and just how the consumer is holding up and just how all these macro pressures may or may not be affecting the markets as you see it now?

好的，太好了。德克，首先，顯然，我們這個行業最近有很多關於時事熱點的問題。所以，你能否簡單談談你目前在一些主要市場的看法，例如消費者的購買力如何，以及這些宏觀壓力目前可能對市場產生哪些影響？

Yes, yes. Thank you, Bryan. Well, first, on the results, I would say we have a very strong top line performance, which I think is a testimony to the resilience of our categories, which is important to take into account. We see signs that consumers really want to continue to consume chocolates and biscuits. I think our pricing execution is now really coming through. And on top of all that, we have volume growth, which is quite unique in today's world.

是的，是的。謝謝你，布萊恩。首先，關於業績，我認為我們的營收表現非常強勁，證明了我們產品類別的韌性，這一點非常重要。我們看到消費者仍然非常渴望購買巧克力和餅乾。我認為我們的定價策略現在確實奏效了。除此之外，我們的銷量也實現了成長，這在當今市場環境下實屬難得。

Obviously, you've seen that the emerging markets are a highlight in Q3 but also year-to-date with a broad-based strength from China to India to Brazil. We're doing well in all of our emerging markets. Our margins are a little bit impacted by customer disruptions in Europe. Sales in Europe overall were good, but there was some customer disruption so sales could have been better, and that also has affected our margins a little bit.

顯然，您已經看到，新興市場在第三季以及今年迄今都表現出色，從中國到印度再到巴西，整體表現強勁。我們在所有新興市場都取得了良好的表現。我們的利潤率受到歐洲客戶中斷的影響。歐洲整體銷售情況良好，但由於一些客戶中斷，銷售額本來可以更高，這也對我們的利潤率產生了一定的影響。

And then our profit, our bottom line is ahead of algorithm and could have been better without that European impact. So we're increasing our view on what the year will look like from a top line and a bottom line perspective, now particularly that our pricing in Europe is complete and behind us. And so yes, FX is impacting our EPS but we are still showing real growth in -- or growth in real dollars.

我們的利潤，也就是淨利潤，已經超過了演算法的預期，而且如果沒有歐洲市場的影響，利潤還會更好。因此，我們現在對今年的營收和淨利潤前景更加樂觀，尤其是在歐洲定價工作已經完成的情況下。所以，匯率波動確實影響了我們的每股盈餘，但我們仍然實現了實際成長——或者說，以實際美元計算的成長。

So overall, I would say the results are good. So if you look a little bit beyond that, what does that mean? From a consumer perspective in the first place, we see in emerging markets consumer sentiment being very solid, very positive. I'm talking about Southeast Asia, India, China even. And so there is a certain optimism. And the degree of strength in the consumer confidence in emerging markets for us is almost to pre-COVID level.

總的來說，我認為結果不錯。那麼，如果深入分析一下，這又意味著什麼呢？首先從消費者的角度來看，我們看到新興市場的消費者信心非常穩固，非常正面。我指的是東南亞、印度，甚至中國。因此，市場存在著一定的樂觀情緒。在我們看來，新興市場消費者信心的強度幾乎已經恢復到新冠疫情前的水準。

Of course, developed markets, we see a very mixed picture, challenged in Europe, as we all know, relatively optimistic in the U.S. In the middle of all that, as I already said, our categories, we expect to continue a strong buy. We see more and more signs that consumers continue to see or increasingly see our categories as an affordable indulgence. We see consumers saying that chocolate is really something they cannot live without. And so we believe that the spending decrease that we will see from consumers eventually, as inflation keeps hitting them, is going to be probably more in the big ticket items. Grocery seems to be doing overall pretty well, I would say.

當然，已開發市場的情況則是喜憂參半。眾所周知，歐洲市場面臨挑戰，而美國市場則相對樂觀。正如我之前所說，在所有這些因素交織的情況下，我們預計我們的產品類別將繼續保持強勁的銷售動能。我們看到越來越多的跡象表明，消費者仍然或越來越將我們的產品類別視為一種價格適中的享受。我們看到消費者表示，巧克力是他們生活中不可或缺的一部分。因此，我們認為，隨著通貨膨脹的持續影響，消費者最終的支出下降可能更體現在高價商品上。我認為，食品雜貨的整體表現相當不錯。

I think we also are benefiting from the fact that we have strong brands in which we continue to invest quite significantly. That's part of our thinking, and I think that is helping us in our results. Pricing, of course, played a role. On pricing, where we stand is that we've just gone through our second round of pricing this year in Europe. We've announced a third round of pricing in the U.S., which will take effect in December. And we are starting our negotiations in Europe for the typical beginning of the year 2023 pricing round.

我認為，我們之所以能取得這樣的成績，也得益於我們擁有強大的品牌，並且我們持續對這些品牌進行大量投資。這是我們策略考量​​的一部分，我認為這有助於我們取得更好的績效。當然，定價也發揮了作用。關於定價，我們目前的情況是，今年我們剛在歐洲完成了第二輪定價。我們已經宣布了美國第三輪定價，將於12月生效。我們正在歐洲啟動2023年初的常規定價談判。

As it relates to Latin America and AMEA, the pricing that we implement is more fragmented, but in most cases, we're also in our third pricing round. And so far, it looks like that will go well, this new pricing round. Of course, we have to see what happens in Europe, where we expect more customer disruption in the beginning of the year as we announce the pricing.

就拉丁美洲和非洲、中東及非洲地區而言，我們的定價策略較為分散，但大多數情況下，我們也已進入第三輪定價階段。目前來看，新一輪定價進展順利。當然，我們也需要觀察歐洲市場的情況，預計年初公佈定價方案時，歐洲客戶可能會受到一些影響。

From an elasticity perspective, maybe I would say that, that remains below expectations. It is lower than it was last year even, certainly lower than it was pre COVID. In our forecast, we are foreseeing higher elasticity effects because we believe that eventually, there will be a bigger effect, but so far, we're not quite seeing that. And then from a cost perspective, we've seen some commodities showing signs of pulling back but we still expect significant inflation in '23 and hence, the pricing rounds we have to go through.

從彈性角度來看，或許可以說，目前的彈性水準仍然低於預期。它甚至低於去年同期水平，當然也低於新冠疫情爆發前的水平。在我們的預測中，我們預期彈性效應會更高，因為我們相信最終會出現更大的影響，但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到這種情況。從成本角度來看，我們看到一些大宗商品價格出現了回落跡象，但我們仍然預計2023年會出現顯著的通貨膨脹，因此，我們將不得不經歷多輪價格波動。

I think we're very well positioned for '23. We, will have to continue to price in light of the inflation. We will increase our focus on RGM, revenue growth management. And we continue to invest to drive volume growth and, of course, net revenue growth. And I think, as I said before, we will see some volatility in Q1 in Europe as we implement pricing.

我認為我們為2023年做好了充分準備。鑑於通貨膨脹，我們將繼續調整定價策略。我們將更重視營收成長管理（RGM）。我們將繼續投資以推動銷售成長，當然也包括淨營收成長。正如我之前所說，由於我們正在實施定價策略，我認為第一季歐洲市場會出現一些波動。

I can go maybe a little bit deeper because I know that it's on everybody's mind as it relates to the European consumer and what are we seeing there, might be useful to do so. What we see is that they continue to prioritize grocery spending. They seem to be choosing that instead of spending on other discretionary items. So we see a clear decrease in entertainment and leisure, in travel, in restaurants, in eating out, in clothing, personal care, household goods. That's where we see the decreases in Europe but not in food and not in our categories.

我可以再深入探討一下，因為我知道大家都很關心歐洲消費者的消費習慣，而我們觀察到的情況或許值得一提。我們發現，他們仍然優先考慮食品雜貨的支出。他們似乎更傾向於把錢花在食品雜貨上，而不是其他非必需品上。因此，我們看到娛樂休閒、旅遊、餐飲、外出用餐、服裝、個人護理和家居用品等方面的支出明顯減少。這些領域的支出在歐洲普遍下降，但食品和其他我們關注的品類支出卻沒有減少。

So the consumer is also relatively positive, we see, in Europe. They're very aware of the current situation. 80% expresses concern with the current situation and they all understand that things are going to be rough. But 60%, for instance, of consumers in the U.K. or Germany believe that 6 months down the road, their situation will be better. And in France, that sentiment is even higher, which is understandable because there, the energy price effect is lower for them.

因此，我們看到，歐洲消費者的態度也相對樂觀。他們非常清楚當前的情況。 80%的消費者對現狀表示擔憂，並且都明白未來一段時間會比較艱難。但例如，英國或德國有60%的消費者認為，6個月後情況會有所改善。而在法國，這種樂觀情緒甚至更高，這也不難理解，因為能源價格上漲對法國消費者的影響較小。

Chocolate is highly desired. We see more and more signs that consumers are saying it's the snack they cannot live without. And so I would say, concern, short term from consumers, relatively optimistic and they keep on buying our categories, which is reflected in the numbers that you saw, which includes, as I said before, some client disruption. I hope this gives you an idea, Bryan.

巧克力備受青睞。我們看到越來越多的跡象表明，消費者表示這是他們生活中不可或缺的零食。因此，我認為消費者的擔憂是暫時的，總體而言比較樂觀，他們會繼續購買我們的產品，這從您看到的銷售數據中也可以看出，正如我之前提到的，其中也包括一些客戶的訂單中斷。布萊恩，希望這些資訊對您有所幫助。

Yes. No, that's great. Appreciate it. I'll pass it on.

是的。太好了。謝謝。我會轉達的。

(Operator Instructions) And next, we move to the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays. My apologies, Andrew. If you could resignal, we'll move next to Ken with JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）接下來，我們連線巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。安德魯，很抱歉。如果您能重新發出訊號，我們接下來連線摩根大通的肯。

I recognize it's too early to discuss next year in full and I wouldn't anticipate any specific numbers. But I think a lot of people are looking at maybe some tailwinds and headwinds in a broad sense. And I was hoping to kind of review some of these and see if I'm missing anything big. So on the tailwind side, you'll have wraparound pricing plus new pricing. You should have good organic volumes still on underlying demand. You'll have strong advertising again. Maybe the same dollar inflation but it will be less on a percent basis. And then you'll have the top line benefits from acquisitions, right?

我知道現在全面討論明年還為時過早，我也不打算給出任何具體數字。但我認為很多人都在從宏觀角度分析一些利好因素和不利因素。我希望能夠回顧這些因素，看看我是否遺漏了什麼重要資訊。就利好因素而言，您將會享受整體定價策略和新定價策略帶來的收益。基於潛在需求，您的自然銷售應該仍然良好。廣告投入也將再次強勁成長。美元通膨率或許會與去年持平，但以百分比計算會下降。此外，您還將受益於收購帶來的營收成長，對吧？

And then in terms of headwinds, maybe a little bit less pricing than '22, still some macro uncertainty in Europe and Asia, still some new regulations in the U.K. you have to wade through. And then, of course, you'll have FX, higher interest expense and lower pension income. So I know I'm running through all these pretty quickly. I don't mean to put you on the spot, but does anything kind of stand out that's major that I'm missing or getting incorrect in that kind of quick list there?

至於不利因素，價格可能比2022年略低，歐洲和亞洲仍存在一些宏觀經濟不確定性，英國還有一些新的監管規定需要處理。當然，還有匯率波動、更高的利息支出和更低的退休金收入。我知道我剛才說得很快。我不是想讓你難堪，但是你覺得我剛才快速列舉的這些因素裡，有沒有什麼特別突出、我遺漏或錯誤的地方？

Yes. Maybe I think the only 1 thing I would add to that equation, Ken, is the synergy that will come to fruition through the acquisitions of Chipita, Ricolino and Clif. And those are not only revenue synergies, as you mentioned, they are also cost synergies and better bottom line. I think in general, the way we think at this point about 2023, it is that consumer demand fundamentals are still strong, and we believe we are in a good place in terms of revenue and demand for next year.

是的。肯，我覺得我唯一要補充的是，收購 Chipita、Ricolino 和 Clif 後將產生的協同效應。正如你所說，這些綜效不僅體現在收入方面，也體現在成本方面，最終會帶來更好的獲利。總的來說，我們目前對 2023 年的看法是，消費者需求基本面依然強勁，我們相信明年的收入和需求前景良好。

As we've just said, we compete in resilient categories. And we have created strong loyalty through the investments we have been making in our brands. I think importantly, as you dissect the regions, emerging markets are doing very well. I think looking at the revenue number, 34%-plus, 8% volume growth in the quarter, it is simply amazing. And it is important to say here that particularly on this, we still have quite a bit of headroom in terms of distribution penetration of our categories and not to mention the value of categories like cakes and pastries and et cetera.

正如我們剛才所說，我們所處的品類具有很強的韌性。我們透過對品牌的持續投入，建立了強大的客戶忠誠度。我認為，尤其重要的是，當我們分析各個區域市場時，會發現新興市場表現非常出色。從季度營收成長超過34%，銷量成長8%來看，這簡直令人驚嘆。而且，需要特別指出的是，就品類而言，我們在分銷滲透方面仍有很大的提升空間，更不用說蛋糕、糕點等品類的巨大價值了。

I think in terms of the U.S., it is on a good trajectory. I mentioned a little bit the share trajectory that we see going into next year. And as we said, we are about to implement another round of pricing. I think the question mark is a little bit Europe but pricing there is inevitable. We'll see what happens with customers in Q1. But importantly, we have been investing in brands there as well. We have been creating bonds with consumers. And as we said, I think we believe our categories are still a necessity these tough times. So all in all, I think we are going to have an algorithm year, but let's stay tuned because quite frankly, it is a little bit premature at this point in time to give you guidance for 2023.

我認為就美國市場而言，它正處於良好的發展軌道上。我之前也提到我們預計明年市場佔有率的成長趨勢。正如我們所說，我們即將推出新一輪定價策略。歐洲市場目前仍存在一些不確定性，但那裡的定價調整勢在必行。我們將觀察第一季消費者的反應。但重要的是，我們也一直在增加對歐洲品牌的投資，並與消費者建立聯繫。正如我們所說，我們仍然相信，在當前嚴峻的情況下，我們的產品類別仍然是必需品。總而言之，我認為今年將是演算法驅動的一年，但讓我們拭目以待，因為坦白說，現在就給出2023年的預測還為時過早。

Next, we can go to the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

接下來，我們可以看看安德魯·拉扎爾在巴克萊銀行的業績。

Maybe to start off, just picking up on the emerging market commentary. Obviously, the results there remain really standout and probably better than many had surmised or forecast, given how volatile some of these markets can be. Maybe you can just get into a little bit more detail on just a couple of the key largest emerging markets and kind of how you're thinking about how those look as you go forward and what you're sort of building into the forecast. And then I've just got a quick follow-up.

或許我們可以先談談新興市場。顯然，這些市場的表現仍然非常出色，考慮到其中一些市場的波動性，可能比許多人的預期或預測都要好。您能否更詳細地談談幾個主要的、規模最大的新興市場，以及您如何看待它們未來的發展趨勢，並在預測中納入了哪些因素？最後，我還有一個後續問題。

Yes, maybe I'll take that and Dirk can also chime in here. Look, reality is we are very pleased with emerging market performance, and I think it has been quite strong all around. When we look a little bit beyond the last 3 quarters, I would say that all emerging markets pretty much bounced back very well from pre COVID and -- or from COVID. And I think the performance versus pre-2020 has accelerated in those markets.

是的，或許我可以接受這個觀點，Dirk也可以補充一下。實際上，我們對新興市場的表現非常滿意，我認為整體表現相當強勁。如果我們把目光放得更遠一些，例如過去三個季度之後，我認為所有新興市場都從新冠疫情前或疫情后的狀態中強勁反彈。而且我認為，與2020年之前相比，這些市場的表現已經加速成長。

We have been consistently investing and that is paying off. We are not privy to all the P&Ls for emerging markets, but what I can tell you is that they are delivering reported dollar top line growth. They are delivering top and bottom line dollar growth, and importantly, generating quite a bit of cash flow for us. So I think from a return of capital, it is really something that is remarkable. We still have huge headrooms, I believe, with brands like Oreo, Milka, Cadbury, et cetera. And I believe we will be -- we will continue to be positively surprised by this market also going forward.

我們一直持續投資，而這些投資正在獲得回報。我們無法掌握所有新興市場的損益表，但我可以告訴大家的是，它們的營收（以美元計）實現了成長。它們的營收和利潤（以美元計）都在成長，更重要的是，它們為我們創造了相當可觀的現金流。因此，我認為從資本回報的角度來看，這確實非常出色。我相信，像奧利奧、妙卡、吉百利等品牌，我們仍然擁有巨大的成長空間。而且我相信，未來我們還會繼續被這個市場帶走驚喜。

Look, beyond the usual suspects like India, China, et cetera, and those are markets that continue to do very, very well, we are particularly pleased with markets like Southeast Asia at this point in time. We are particularly pleased with markets like Brazil. We continue to do very, very well and generate solid top and bottom line in those markets. I think WACOM, which is Western Andean region bouncing back from pre COVID, particularly through Gum & Candy.

除了印度、中國等傳統市場（這些市場持續表現非常出色）之外，我們目前對東南亞等市場特別滿意。我們對巴西等市場也感到非常滿意。我們在這些市場持續取得非常好的業績，營收和利潤都非常穩健。我認為WACOM（西安第斯地區）正在從新冠疫情前的狀態中復蘇，尤其是在口香糖和糖果業務方面。

But importantly, the like motive of all these markets is the performance of Oreo, which is just amazing. So I think all in all, I would say I can't call out 1 specific market here. It is pretty much all of them doing quite well.

但重要的是，所有這些市場的共同點是奧利奧的出色表現，這簡直太棒了。所以總的來說，我覺得不能特別指出哪個市場表現最佳。幾乎所有市場都表現得相當不錯。

And then you've talked about a lot of the -- some of the incremental pricing moves, right, that you've made or are in the process of making to try and better position yourself for what's coming next year. Would we anticipate at this point being in a point to enter the year where you would have all of what you need in place such that there wouldn't be as much of, let's say, a lag to start the new year? Or should we brace ourselves maybe for the sort of consistent lag of getting incremental pricing in before you really fully catch up again to the type of cost inflation that you're looking for next year?

您剛才也談到了一些——一些已經實施或正在實施的——價格調整措施，對吧？這些措施旨在更好地為明年做好準備。我們是否可以預期，到明年年初，您已經做好了所有必要的準備，而不會出現太大的延遲？或者我們應該做好準備，迎接價格調整過程中可能出現的持續滯後，直到您真正完全趕上您明年預期的成本上漲水平？

Look, reality is pricing for more than 50% has already been taken or announced. And so as a matter of pricing for next year, you have to think about carryover of announced pricing being for more than 50% done. Obviously, as we said, there is the U.S. coming as of December, and that will add to the 50%.

實際上，超過50%的訂單定價已經確定或公佈。因此，在製定明年的定價時，必須考慮到已公佈價格的延續性，因為超過50%的訂單已經完成。當然，正如我們所說，美國市場將於12月開始實施，這將使訂單量增加50%。

I think in general, your assumption is absolutely correct. The only one distinction I would make is Europe. And Europe, I think, will have a little bit of a lag compared to the necessity of pricing because particularly, energy costs are a reality right now. And so you're going to see some margin pressure potentially in Europe in Q1 and potential customer disruption will compound on that. I think for the rest, you are correct.

我認為總體而言，你的假設完全正確。我唯一要補充的是歐洲的情況。我認為，歐洲在定價方面會稍微滯後，因為能源成本目前確實是現實存在的。因此，你可能會看到歐洲第一季利潤率面臨一些壓力，而潛在的客戶流失會加劇這種情況。至於其他方面，我認為你的說法是正確的。

Next, we go to the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse.

接下來，我們來看看瑞士信貸的羅伯特·莫斯科的業績。

I was hoping if you could give a little more color into the logics for this third round of price increase in the U.S. Are you taking it because you have commodity hedges that are rolling over and can no longer protect your costs? Are you taking it because packaging costs are rising higher? Could you be more specific as to that? And then also, are you also trying to price through some of the knock-on elements of inflation, like labor or energy? Or does the logic still just focus on the kind of components of the product?

我希望您能更詳細地解釋一下美國第三輪價格上漲的邏輯。是因為商品避險到期無法再保護成本，還是因為包裝成本上漲？能否具體說明一下？另外，您是否也在試圖將通貨膨脹的連鎖反應因素（例如勞動力或能源成本）納入定價考量？還是說，定價邏輯仍然只關注產品本身的組成部分？

Your assumption is right. It's a combination of everything you said. So our approach to pricing is that the additional costs we see every year, which could be from a commodity perspective, packaging, labor, transportation, we are trying to price away. So we do have a number of hedges that are coming off. We are careful on the hedging for next year because it could, to our opinion, go both ways. Prices could -- or cost could still go up. We want to hedge the right way against that, but we also need to be careful that commodity costs don't come down and that we can benefit from that.

你的假設是對的。這確實是你剛才說的所有內容的綜合。所以我們的定價策略是，每年都會增加一些成本，像是商品價格、包裝、人工、運輸等等，我們試著把這些成本都計入價格中。因此，我們確實有一些避險策略即將到期。我們對明年的避險非常謹慎，因為我們認為價格走勢可能會朝兩個方向發展。價格或成本可能會繼續上漲。我們希望採取正確的避險策略來應對這種情況，但我們也需要注意商品成本是否會下降，以及我們是否會從中獲利。

And so the short answer to what you said, it's all of the above. The good news about the third round of pricing in the U.S. is that it's been announced and it's been accepted by the clients. We will see how the consumer reacts, but so far, the 2 previous price increases, we have not seen a major impact on consumer offtake and penetration and frequency; [volume growth] and so on is all still very strong. So we have good confidence that this price increase will go through. And then we should be okay unless something happens in our cost picture.

所以，對於您剛才的問題，簡而言之，以上所有情況都屬實。關於美國第三輪定價的好消息是，價格已經公佈，並且已被客戶接受。我們將觀察消費者的反應，但就目前來看，前兩次漲價並未對消費者的購買量、滲透率和購買頻率造成重大影響；銷量成長等指標依然非常強勁。因此，我們有信心此次漲價能夠順利進行。除非成本方面出現意外情況，否則我們應該不會受到影響。

Next, we go to Chris Growe with Stifel.

接下來，我們連線到 Stifel 公司的 Chris Growe。

I just had a couple of questions for you. The first 1 would just be that you've given some commentary around, obviously, some more pricing in North America. It sounds like a little better volume performance in Europe. I just wanted to understand around those factors and perhaps as others to consider. Would you...

我有一些問題想問您。第一個問題是，您之前提到過北美地區的定價策略，顯然，歐洲的銷售表現似乎更好。我想了解這些因素，以及可能還有哪些因素需要考慮。您能否…

Hello?

你好？

Mr. Dickerson. My apologies. Next, we move to Mr. Dickerson with Jefferies.

迪克森先生。非常抱歉。接下來，我們連線到迪克森先生和傑富瑞公司。

Maybe just kind of a broader question for you, Dirk, around A&C. Obviously, we keep hearing a lot of people think that our promotional activities need to increase because (inaudible) increase, but I've heard a lot of [C] level managers from food companies, CPG companies say actually now as well as elasticity stays benign, don't need to increase promotional side while at the same time on a low basis as we saw in Q3. You obviously continue to really invest behind your brands.

Dirk，或許我想問你一個關於A&C的更廣泛的問題。顯然，我們一直聽到很多人認為我們的促銷活動需要增加，因為（聽不清楚）成長，但我聽到很多食品公司和消費品公司的高層表示，實際上，在彈性保持溫和的情況下，無需增加促銷方面的投入，同時促銷規模也像第三季度那樣處於較低水平。顯然，你們一直在大力投資你們的品牌。

So I guess kind of quick, almost 2-part question. One is just kind of what's the current perspective on kind of go-forward promotional needs with the competitive backdrop? And then two, should we be thinking as we go forward, let's say, even 2 years or 3 years that of that rate of that year-over-year A&C spend could kind of mimic the rate of the year-over-year revenue growth spend as you may have some needs, especially with some of the recent acquisitions? Or is there operational leverage that could come out of that? That's it.

所以我想問一個比較簡短、幾乎分成兩個部分的問題。第一，在目前的競爭環境下，您對未來促銷的需求有何看法？第二，展望未來，比如說兩三年，我們是否應該考慮讓廣告和廣告支出的年增長率與營收成長的年增長率保持一致，因為考慮到一些需求，特別是最近的一些收購？或者說，這其中是否存在營運槓桿效應？就這些。

Yes. Well, I would say that in the current environment where we have to increase our prices quite substantially, it is important for us to keep on increasing our A&C spending because we need to make sure that the consumer has trust in our brands and really want to consume them. And we can clearly see the effects of this year after year increasing in our spending. We can now see -- although overall, there's not that much movement into private label, in the market where there is a little bit of movement in private label, it's not so much coming from our brand. And I think that is a reflection from the spending that we've had.

是的。在當前不得不大幅提價的環境下，我認為持續增加廣告和消費者投入至關重要，因為我們需要確保消費者信任我們的品牌，並且真心想要購買。我們可以清楚地看到，逐年增加投入所帶來的效果。雖然整體而言，自有品牌市場並沒有太大的變化，但在自有品牌市場略有成長的地區，這些成長並非主要來自我們的品牌。我認為這反映了我們投入的資金。

Going forward, particularly since we're seeing an acceleration in our top line, particularly since we're seeing our volume working for us, I would say we don't really anticipate that we're going to change that formula. You know the way we think about this. We grow our gross profit at an X percentage. But this quarter is quite strong, I would say. And we then want to flow half of that back into investing in the business and half of that in the bottom line. I don't think that will necessarily change. It's working for us and the business is accelerating.

展望未來，尤其是在我們看到營收加速成長，銷售量也表現良好的情況下，我認為我們並不打算改變目前的獲利模式。您也知道我們的想法。我們以X%的毛利成長率來衡量績效。但本季業績相當強勁。我們計劃將其中一半用於業務投資，另一半用於提升淨利潤。我認為這個模式不會改變。它目前運作良好，業務也在加速成長。

As it relates to the acquisitions, obviously, we have foreseen, in some of the acquisitions, a significant investment because we do have cost synergies, which as Luca said, will start to show up next year in our results. But we also have top line synergies. And we feel that some of the brands have quite good potential, but they might need some investments. So we're going to use the same formula as it relates to acquisitions as we are using on the rest of the business.

關於收購方面，顯然，我們預計在某些收購項目中需要進行大量投資，因為我們確實存在成本協同效應，正如盧卡所說，這些效應將在明年的業績中開始顯現。但我們也存在營收綜效。我們認為有些品牌潛力巨大，但可能需要一些投資。因此，我們將對收購項目採用與公司其他業務相同的策略。

Will, over time -- we will do a constant measurement, which is about advertising sufficiency? That still shows that increasing our advertising will lead to increased volume, will lead to increased net revenue growth. And so as long as we can confirm that picture, we feel that this is the right track for us. As soon as we would see that, that is not the case anymore. Obviously, we would not keep on increasing our A&C. But at this stage, I think it's working. We don't see a reason to change it.

隨著時間的推移，我們會持續評估廣告投入是否足夠。評估結果仍顯示，增加廣告投入能帶來銷售成長，進而提升淨收入。只要這一趨勢持續下去，我們就認為這條路是正確的。一旦情況發生變化，我們自然不會繼續增加廣告和成本投入。但就目前而言，我認為這種策略是有效的，我們沒有理由改變它。

We return to the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.

我們回到克里斯·格羅與史蒂費爾的合作系列。

Okay. You got me now. Yes, if you didn't like that question, you didn't have to cut me off. I'm only kidding. So I was just going to ask about the gross margin and just to understand with more price -- with pricing -- more pricing coming in North America, it sounds like a little better volume performance in Europe. Should we expect a better balance of pricing and cost inflation in the fourth quarter and therefore, some sequential gross margin improvement?

好吧，你問到點子上了。是的，如果你不喜歡這個問題，沒必要打斷我。我只是開玩笑。我本來想問的是毛利率，想了解一下，隨著北美地區價格上漲——價格上漲——歐洲的銷量似乎有所改善。我們是否應該預期第四季價格和成本上漲會更加平衡，從而毛利率較上季有所提高？

Look, I think as a matter of fact, we don't give much guidance around gross margin. But the way you have to think about it is there is gross profit growth in terms of dollars that we commit to and that we are going to deliver. As you think about gross margin percentage, I think particularly, the U.S., Latin America and AMEA are on, I believe, a solid ground.

事實上，我們很少就毛利率給出具體指引。但你應該這樣理解：我們承諾並將實現毛利成長目標。至於毛利率百分比，我認為美國、拉丁美洲和中東、非洲地區的毛利率基礎非常穩固。

Obviously, in Europe, you're going to see the benefit of pricing but do not necessarily neglect the fact that particularly around energy, there is more costs coming our way. Now for the year, we are 100% covered in terms of commodities and ForEx, so we have visibility. I think you're still going to see a little bit of margin pressure in Q4. But importantly, you're going to see strong dollar growth, and you're going to see that flowing partly to the bottom line. We will continue to invest. And as I said, as you think about particularly Chipita and if you think about Clif, there will be some synergies coming our way.

顯然，在歐洲，價格優勢將會帶來好處，但也不要忽略能源成本上漲的現實。目前，我們已為今年的大宗商品和外匯交易做好了100%的準備，因此前景可觀。我認為第四季利潤率仍會面臨一些壓力。但重要的是，美元將強勁成長，這部分成長將轉化為利潤。我們將繼續投資。正如我之前所說，特別是考慮到Chipita和Clif，它們之間將會產生協同效應。

Okay. And just one other question on -- there was a comment about mix being a bit of a drag. I just want to understand, is that geographic mix? Or is that something you're seeing in terms of your product assortment, your SKUs? Any kind of trade down or smaller pack sizes, that kind of thing?

好的。還有一個問題──有人提到產品組合有點拖累。我想了解一下，是指地域性產品組合嗎？還是指你們的產品種類、SKU方面的問題？例如產品降級或包裝規格縮小之類的？

No, I don't think that it is anything concerning. What I said as it relates to biscuits is that volume was up but volume/mix was partially down. And the reason for that is that mix in Europe because of customer disruption caused a little bit of the problem. So there were product lines, particularly in France and other places, that are more profitable than others around the world, and those were mostly impacted by customer disruption.

不，我不認為這有什麼好擔憂的。我之前說的是，就餅乾而言，銷量雖然上升了，但銷量/產品組合卻部分下降了。原因在於，由於歐洲客戶需求波動，導致產品組合出現了一些問題。因此，一些產品線，尤其是在法國和其他一些地區，比世界其他地區的產品線利潤更高，而這些產品線受到的客戶需求波動的影響最大。

We have also to realize that customer disruption in terms of margins is a little bit higher because obviously, we still have fixed costs. And so the marginal contribution of those lines is a little bit higher. But mix is not a concern. And as we will start seeing biscuit growing volume more consistently most likely in the U.S., I think you're going to see the benefit of mix coming through. But there is nothing really to worry about down-trading or anything else.

我們也必須意識到，由於固定成本的存在，客戶流失對利潤率的影響會略高一些。因此，這些產品線的邊際貢獻也會略高一些。但產品組合本身並不令人擔憂。隨著餅乾銷售在美國等地持續成長，我認為產品組合的優勢將會逐漸顯現。但消費者無需擔心降級消費或其他任何問題。

Next, we go to the line of Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們來看看摩根士丹利的帕梅拉‧考夫曼。

So your full year guidance for at least 10% organic sales growth implies that Q4 slows to high single-digit growth compared to over 11% organic sales growth year-to-date. So how should we think about the degree of conservatism in your outlook? And have you seen any changes in the operating backdrop that make you more cautious about the near-term trends?

因此，您全年至少10%的有機銷售成長預期意味著第四季度增速將放緩至個位數高位，而年初至今的有機銷售成長已超過11%。那麼，我們該如何看待您預測中的保守程度？您是否觀察到任何經營環境的變化，導致您對近期趨勢更加謹慎？

I mean, your math is right, obviously. The implied Q4 growth is 7%-plus, but importantly, there is a plus in there. So we might have more than 7%, which is something that obviously we might have. Reality is we are about to implement pricing actions and what we want is to end the year, particularly on the trade stock side, on a good position. We don't want the trade or retailers to be impacted by more stock. And so you might call us conservative and we will see. Reality is into the current guidance, which is 10%-plus on both revenue and EPS, I think we feel quite comfortable that there might be a little bit of upside. But we will try to make sure that we end the year in the right place in light of 2023.

我的意思是，你的計算顯然是正確的。第四季隱含成長率超過7%，但重要的是，這其中包含正數。所以我們實際成長率可能超過7%，這當然是有可能的。現實情況是，我們即將實施價格調整措施，我們希望年底，尤其是在貿易庫存方面，能夠保持良好的狀態。我們不希望貿易商或零售商受到庫存增加的影響。所以你可能會說我們比較保守，我們會拭目以待。根據目前的業績指引，營收和每股盈餘都超過10%，我認為我們有信心會有小幅成長空間。但我們會努力確保在2023年到來之際，年底能維持良好的業績狀態。

Great. And then can you talk about the drivers of your market share improvement and earlier expectations for market share improvement in the U.S.? Where are you in rebuilding capacity on inventory levels on some of the brands where you saw capacity constraints shortages?

好的。那麼，您能否談談推動您市場佔有率成長的因素，以及您先前對美國市場佔有率成長的預期？對於先前因產能限製而出現短缺的某些品牌，您目前的產能恢復情況如何？

Yes. So as we said in the last month, we've already seen market share gains. We expect that to continue and we expect a good tailwind market share-wise into 2023. The overall industry headwinds are moderating. That is helping. So logistic challenges have improved. Still a little bit of issues on cross-border transportation from Mexico. But within the U.S., we're doing quite well. The labor market is easing, so our third-party manufacturers are having an easier time with that.

是的。正如我們上個月所說，我們已經看到市場份額有所增長。我們預計這一趨勢將持續，並預計到2023年市場份額方面將保持良好勢頭。整個產業的逆風正在緩和，這對我們有所幫助。物流方面的挑戰也有所改善。從墨西哥跨境運輸仍然存在一些問題，但在美國國內，我們的表現相當不錯。勞動力市場正在放鬆，因此我們的第三方製造商在這方面也更加輕鬆。

And so I would say turnover is still high but we are continuing to be at a good staffing in the plant. As a consequence of all that and us sort of focusing on the key SKUs, doing a number of changes in our factories, making sure that we have longer runs of less SKUs and so on, our service levels have consistently improved now every single month in the quarter. So we're now back in the high 70s. Nothing here to brag about but clearly improving.

所以我覺得人員流動率仍然很高，但我們工廠的員工配備一直很充足。正因為如此，加上我們專注於關鍵SKU，對工廠進行了一些調整，確保我們能以較少的SKU進行更長的生產週期等等，我們的服務水平在本季度每個月都在持續提升。現在我們的服務水準已經回到了70%以上。雖然沒什麼值得炫耀的，但顯然是在進步。

The consequence of that is that trade inventory levels are continuing to recover, so we have less out of stocks, and that starts to show in consumer offtake. Most of our biscuits brands are already in positive share territory. In September, our biscuit share was up, as I said, and we expect that share growth to accelerate in Q4 because the on-shelf availability recovery is going quite well now.

因此，貿易庫存水準持續回升，缺貨情況減少，這開始反映在消費者的購買量上。我們的大部分餅乾品牌市佔率已經轉正。正如我之前提到的，9月份我們的餅乾市佔率成長，我們預計第四季市佔率成長將加速，因為目前貨架供應恢復情況良好。

On top, we will increase our A&C investment in the fourth quarter in the U.S. We, so far, had held back a little bit because of those supply chain issues. But now to accompany the price increase, we're going to significantly step up our investments. So we expect that we will enter '23 with a good momentum in the U.S.

此外，我們將在第四季度增加在美國的航空航天和建築（A&C）投資。此前，由於供應鏈問題，我們一直有所克制。但現在，為了配合價格上漲，我們將大幅增加投資。因此，我們預計進入2023年，在美國市場將保持良好的發展動能。

Our final question for today comes from the line of John Baumgartner with Mizuho.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自瑞穗銀行的約翰·鮑姆加特納。

I just wanted to come back to emerging markets and specifically the vol/mix component of growth there. Can you just speak a bit more to the breakdown between the contributions from underlying consumption? I guess just from the COVID recovery but then also specific to your investments, whether it's distribution growth, innovation, the local jewels regaining share. How would you rank order the contributors to vol/mix? And then should we expect any change to the balance of those drivers going forward?

我只是想回到新興市場，特別是那裡成長的波動性和組成因素。您能否更詳細地談談基礎消費的貢獻組成？我猜想這不僅包括新冠疫情後的復甦，還包括您投資的具體情況，例如分銷成長、創新以及本土品牌重新奪回市場份額。您會如何對波動性和構成因素進行排序？我們是否應該預期這些驅動因素的平衡在未來會改變？

Yes. So I think it's a mixture of the 2 in the sense that we have very strong investment in our brands. We have a confident consumer in emerging markets, and that is leading to robust volume growth. They are also more used to an inflationary environment. And I'm talking about the consumer but also about our teams to constantly, year after year, deal with this pricing and RGM. So that is leading to very robust volume growth, I would say. Our volume in Q3 is up 7%, which is quite extraordinary.

是的。我認為這是兩者共同作用的結果。一方面，我們對自有品牌投入龐大；另一方面，新興市場的消費者信心十足，這推動了銷售量的強勁成長。他們也更適應通膨環境。我這裡說的消費者，也包括我們的團隊，他們年復一年地應對價格和零售成長的挑戰。因此，我認為正是這些因素促成了銷量的強勁成長。第三季銷量成長了7%，這相當驚人。

The other thing I would say is that we are also increasing our distribution, which is an added benefit. If you think about China or India, we're literally adding tens of thousands of stores every year through our distribution and that obviously helps. The third thing that I would mention is the strength of Oreo and the fact that we are investing now across the board a little bit more in Oreo, and we're seeing good results from that, so Oreo's becoming very strong for us in these markets.

我想補充一點，我們也在擴大分銷管道，這無疑是一大優勢。以中國和印度為例，我們每年透過分銷管道新增數萬家門市，無疑對我們大有裨益。第三點是奧利奧的強勁表現，以及我們目前在奧利奧方面加大投入，並且已經取得了顯著成效。因此，奧利奧在這些市場變得越來越重要。

And we -- for instance, in Mexico, we expect to see some big effects from Ricolino where we are tripling our route to market. So that will start to play a role also. So I would say it's a combination of very good investment, confident consumer, careful management of RGM. We are not doing across-the-board price increases but playing it very careful in the different countries, combining with good distribution gains. That is what's leading to that strength in emerging markets for us.

例如，在墨西哥，我們預期Ricolino會帶來顯著的影響，因為我們將市場管道擴大了三倍。這將開始發揮作用。所以我認為這是許多因素共同作用的結果，包括良好的投資、消費者信心以及對零售總經理（RGM）的謹慎管理。我們並沒有全面提價，而是在不同國家採取非常謹慎的策略，並結合良好的通路拓展。這正是我們在新興市場取得強勁表現的原因。

This does conclude today's program. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at any time.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時掛斷電話。