億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International Fourth Quarter 2021 Year-End Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by the Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

各位來賓，歡迎參加億滋國際2021財年第四季財報電話會議。本次電話會議預計持續約1小時，包括億滋管理階層致詞及問答環節。 （操作說明）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把電話交給億滋國際投資者關係副總裁謝普‧鄧拉普先生。請您發言，先生。

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides, which are available on our website.

下午好，感謝各位的到來。今天陪同我的是我們的董事長兼執行長德克·范德普特先生，以及我們的財務長盧卡·扎拉梅拉先生。今天早些時候，我們已發布了新聞稿和演示文稿，您可以在我們的網站上查看。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K, Q and 8-K filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將就公司績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們目前的判斷。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。有關前瞻性陳述的更多詳情，請參閱我們提交的10-K、Q和8-K文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。

As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results. In addition, we provide our year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, unless otherwise noted. We're also presenting revenue growth on a 2-year CAGR basis to provide better comparability given the impact of COVID on 2020 results. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

在今天討論績效時，除非另有說明，我們將使用非GAAP財務指標，這些指標已根據GAAP績效中的某些項目進行了調整。此外，除非另有說明，我們將以固定匯率為基礎提供年增速。鑑於新冠疫情對2020年業績的影響，我們也以兩年複合年增長率(CAGR)為基礎列示營收成長，以便更好地進行比較。您可以在我們的獲利報告和簡報結尾找到對應的GAAP指標以及GAAP與非GAAP指標的調節表。

In today's call, Dirk will provide a business and strategy update, then Luca will take you through our financial results and outlook. We will close with Q&A.

在今天的電話會議中，Dirk 將介紹業務和策略的最新進展，然後 Luca 將為大家講解我們的財務表現和展望。最後我們將進行問答環節。

Before turning it over to Dirk, I would like to remind you of 2 upcoming investor events. First, we will present virtually on February 22 at CAGNY, focusing on our AMEA region; and second, please save the date for a Mondelez Investor Day on May 10.

在將發言權交給德克之前，我想提醒各位即將舉行的兩場投資人活動。首先，我們將於2月22日在線上參加CAGNY會議，重點介紹我們在AMEA地區的業務；其次，請預留時間參加5月10日舉行的億滋國際投資者日活動。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Dirk.

接下來，我將把電話交給德克。

Thank you, Shep, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. I am starting off at Slide 4. 2021 marked another year of strong top and bottom line results. Growth was driven equally by volume and pricing as we leverage the strength of our brands and execution capabilities. We continued to deliver on our long-term growth algorithm, returning nearly $4 billion in capital to shareholders while investing in our growth initiatives, positioning us well to deliver strong performance in 2022 and beyond.

謝謝Shep，也謝謝各位今天參加電話會議。我從第四張投影片開始。 2021年，我們再次取得了強勁的營收和利潤成長。銷售和價格的雙贏推動了成長，這得益於我們強大的品牌和卓越的執行能力。我們持續推動長期成長策略，在向股東返還近40億美元資本的同時，也加大了對成長項目的投入，這為我們在2022年及以後取得優異業績奠定了堅實的基礎。

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact both consumer behavior and the broader operating environment. Against this backdrop, over the past 2 years, consumers continue to choose our trusted and beloved brands for both comfort and sustenance at home and on the go. We have delivered on this strong underlying demand across our brands and geographies with continued strength in execution, activation and innovation. As a result, our cumulative market share remains higher than pre-COVID levels.

新冠疫情持續影響消費者的行為和更廣泛的營運環境。在此背景下，過去兩年，消費者依然選擇我們值得信賴且備受喜愛的品牌，無論是在家或外出，都能獲得舒適和營養。我們憑藉著持續的執行力、市場推廣和創新能力，滿足了旗下各品牌和全球各地消費者的強勁需求。因此，我們的累計市佔率仍高於疫情前的水準。

At the same time, we are continuing to operate in a dynamic environment characterized by global input cost inflation alongside supply chain, labor and transportation disruption. We are effectively mitigating these challenges through ongoing cost discipline and strategic pricing actions. We also continue to execute well against our strategic growth priorities, investing in our brands, capabilities and sustainability initiatives while expanding our portfolio with the addition of several growth accretive acquisitions, Hu, Grenade, Gourmet Food and Chipita, which closed earlier this month. These additions increased our exposure to broader snacking categories and growing profit pools.

同時，我們持續在全球投入成本上漲以及供應鏈、勞動力和運輸中斷等動態環境下運作。我們透過持續的成本控制和策略定價措施，有效應對了這些挑戰。我們也正在穩步推進策略性成長重點，投資於品牌建設、能力提升和永續發展項目，並透過本月初完成的Hu、Grenade、Gourmet Food和Chipita等幾項增值收購，拓展了我們的產品組合。這些收購增加了我們在更廣泛的零食品類中的業務，並擴大了我們的利潤空間。

Along with our financial performance, we made progress in other areas. We continue to advance our ESG goals, setting ambitious new targets for achieving net zero by 2050, and we continue to accelerate our DEI agenda. And none of this would be possible without our people, the best in the CPG industry. We're proud of the way our teams continue to focus on delivering great products to our consumers as pandemic conditions continue to impact both our work lives and our personal lives. I am especially grateful to our frontline teams whose hard work and dedication delights families all over the world. We are confident that the strength of our brands, our proven strategy and our continued investments position us well to achieve our long-term financial targets in 2022 and beyond.

除了財務表現之外，我們在其他領域也取得了進展。我們持續推進ESG目標，設定了2050年實現淨零排放的宏偉新目標，並不斷加快推進多元化、公平和包容（DEI）議程。這一切都離不開我們優秀的員工，他們是消費品產業最傑出的人才。我們為團隊在疫情持續影響工作和生活的情況下，依然專注於為消費者提供優質產品而感到自豪。我特別感謝我們的一線團隊，他們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神為世界各地的家庭帶來了歡樂。我們相信，憑藉強大的品牌實力、行之有效的策略以及持續的投資，我們完全有能力在2022年及以後實現長期財務目標。

Let's take a closer look at the market and macro trends on Slide 5. With the recent rise of the Omicron variant, the rebound in mobility that we saw earlier in 2021 has slowed down in both developed and emerging markets and is expected to remain 10% to 15% below pre-COVID levels in many markets. Time at home and eating at home look likely to remain elevated. In the U.S., for example, 60% of adults are not expecting to eat out more in 2022 than they did in 2021. This positions our core biscuits and chocolate portfolios well as they are skewed towards in-home consumption.

讓我們仔細看看幻燈片5中的市場和宏觀趨勢。隨著Omicron系列產品近期的崛起，我們在2021年初看到的出行量反彈在已開發市場和新興市場均已放緩，預計在許多市場仍將比新冠疫情前水平低10%至15%。居家時間和居家用餐頻率預計將維持在高水準。例如，在美國，60%的成年人預計2022年外出用餐的次數不會比2021年更多。這有利於我們核心的餅乾和巧克力產品組合，因為它們更側重於家庭消費。

The pandemic continues to fuel the desire for comfort and indulgence, benefiting our categories and trusted brands. And overall, as we found in our state of snacking survey released last week, the tendency for daily snacking is up for a third consecutive year. And although 70% of global consumers report concerns about inflation, it has done little to date to change their grocery shopping behavior. This is consistent with the observed price elasticity, which has been much lower than historical levels as well as a continued share weakness for private label.

疫情持續推動人們對舒適和享受的需求，這惠及了我們的品類和值得信賴的品牌。正如我們上週發布的零食消費狀況調查顯示，每日零食消費量連續第三年上升。儘管全球70%的消費者表示擔憂通膨，但迄今為止，通膨並未對他們的食品雜貨購買行為產生太大影響。這與觀察到的價格彈性相符，目前的價格彈性遠低於歷史水平，自有品牌市佔率也持續疲軟。

Let me spend a moment on the current operating environment on Slide 6. Like other companies, we are experiencing cost inflation globally, particularly on transportation costs, dairy, edible oils and packaging. We have implemented material price increases, ensures we are significantly hedged across key commodities and we are continuing to drive productivity measures. We also continue to manage through significant volatility in the supply chain due to labor shortages at third-parties as well as a continuing gap between demand and supply of trucking capacity in containers in places like U.S. and the U.K.

請容許我花一點時間談談幻燈片6中提到的當前營運環境。與其他公司一樣，我們正面臨全球成本上漲，尤其是在運輸成本、乳製品、食用油和包裝方面。我們已經提高了原物料價格，確保對關鍵大宗商品進行了充分的避險，並持續推進生產效率提升措施。此外，由於第三方勞動力短缺以及美國和英國等地貨櫃卡車運輸能力持續供需不平衡，我們仍在努力應對供應鏈的劇烈波動。

In addition, the U.S. strike in Q3, although resolved, impacted our production output and inventory levels in the quarter. Additionally, COVID-19 continues to cause disruption in consumer mobility in certain geographies, impacting our gum business and on-the-go products. This currently affects a small portion of emerging markets. Additionally, the rise of the Omicron variant is driving high levels of absenteeism in certain markets while limiting recovery mobility. We are focused on reactivating part of our COVID playbook from the early pandemic days and also looking to further simplify our operations to offset this pressure. And although challenging, we are managing effectively through each of these dynamics.

此外，儘管第三季的美國罷工已經解決，但仍對我們當季的產量和庫存水準造成了影響。同時，新冠疫情持續影響部分地區的消費者出行，進而影響了我們的口香糖業務和即飲產品。目前，這種情況僅影響部分新興市場。此外，奧密克戎（Omicron）變種的出現導致部分市場員工缺勤率居高不下，同時也限制了員工的復工復產。我們正著力重啟疫情初期制定的部分應對新冠疫情的策略，並尋求進一步簡化營運流程以緩解這些壓力。儘管面臨諸多挑戰，我們仍在積極有效地應對這些變化。

We implement our revenue growth management levers and continue to invest in our brands while taking extensive measures to lighten the supply chain disruption. By applying the lessons learned from earlier waves of the pandemic and maintaining our focus on execution, we are confident that we remain well positioned to deliver our growth targets.

我們運用各項營收成長管理策略，持續投資旗下品牌，同時採取廣泛措施緩解供應鏈中斷的影響。透過吸取先前疫情期間的經驗教訓，並繼續專注於執行，我們有信心實現成長目標。

Turning to Slide 7, you can see that our strategy is continuing to drive a virtuous cycle. Strong volume momentum, combined with brand investments and strategic pricing options, position us well to consistently deliver profitable top and bottom line growth as well as strong return of capital to our shareholders. We grew revenue by 5.2% in 2021, lapping 3.7% growth in 2020. Volume was once again a big contributor to this growth, which demonstrates the fundamental strength and health of our business.

翻到第7張投影片，您可以看到我們的策略持續推動良性循環。強勁的銷售成長勢頭，加上品牌投資和策略定價策略，使我們能夠持續實現獲利性營收和利潤成長，並為股東帶來豐厚的資本回報。 2021年，我們的營收成長了5.2%，超過了2020年的3.7%。銷售再次成為這一成長的主要貢獻者，這充分體現了我們業務的穩健性和良好發展勢頭。

Despite the ongoing impact of cost inflation and supply chain volatility, we delivered gross profit growth of 3.6%. Our working media investments have increased double digit versus last year on the back of a double-digit increase in 2020. Combined with our advantaged portfolio of brands and our execution activation capabilities, we gained or held share across 75% of our revenue on a 2-year cumulative basis. We increased operating income by 5.8% and delivered $3.2 billion in free cash flow. We view these results as a healthy indicator of our ability to continue to deliver on our long-term growth algorithm.

儘管成本上漲和供應鏈波動持續影響著我們的業績，但我們仍實現了3.6%的毛利成長。繼2020年兩位數成長之後，我們的媒體投入較去年實現了兩位數成長。憑藉我們強大的品牌組合和執行力，在過去兩年中，我們累積75%的收入份額實現了成長或保持穩定。我們的營業收入成長了5.8%，並實現了32億美元的自由現金流。我們認為這些業績有力地表明了我們有能力繼續實現長期成長目標。

As you can see on Slide 8, we are now averaging a 4.2% quarterly growth rate since the launch of our strategy in September 2018. We're proud of our strong and consistent track record over this time. As we continue to focus on profit dollar growth, local first commercial execution, high return investments and aligned incentives, we are confident that we can continue to consistently deliver attractive growth.

正如您在投影片 8 中看到的，自 2018 年 9 月推出該策略以來，我們目前的季度平均成長率為 4.2%。我們為這段時間以來取得的強勁且穩定的業績感到自豪。我們將繼續專注於利潤成長、在地化優先的商業執行、高回報投資和激勵機制的協調一致，我們有信心能夠持續實現可觀的成長。

On Slide 9, you can see some highlights of our successful execution against our long-term growth drivers. These include delivering our strongest Christmas sales on record in Europe, growing double digit versus 2020 and 2019, led by Cadbury in U.K. and Milka in Germany. It also includes continuing to expand distribution in emerging markets, adding 300,000 stores in China and more than 200,000 stores in India. It includes investing to sustain growth in digital commerce, which grew 29% on a reported basis, lapping 75% growth in 2020.

在第9張投影片中，您可以看到我們成功執行長期成長驅動因素的一些亮點。其中包括在歐洲實現了有史以來最強勁的聖誕節銷售額，較2020年和2019年均實現了兩位數增長，這主要得益於英國吉百利和德國妙卡的出色表現。此外，還包括持續拓展新興市場的通路，在中國新增30萬家門市，在印度新增超過20萬家門市。同時，我們也加大了對數位商務的投入，以維持其持續成長。據報告，數位商務成長了29%，超過了2020年75%的成長速度。

Digital commerce now accounts for approximately 6% of revenue, up from 3% in 2019. And it also includes expanding our presence in high-growth segments where we are underrepresented, including well-being where we launched breakthrough innovations on key brands like Oreo Zero Sugar in China as well as Cadbury Plant Bar and plant-based Philadelphia in the U.K. As consumer demand for well-being options rises, each of these innovations has a clear potential to expand to additional geographies.

數位商務目前約占公司營收的6%，高於2019年的3%。此外，公司也在一些高成長領域拓展業務，這些領域我們目前市場佔有率不足，例如健康領域。我們在中國推出了奧利奧零糖等關鍵品牌的突破性創新產品，並在英國推出了吉百利植物巧克力棒和植物性費城巧克力。隨著消費者對健康產品的需求不斷增長，這些創新產品都具有拓展至更多地區的潛力。

We also grew our presence in the premium biscuit space with double-digit growth led by Tate's, which we successfully transitioned to direct store delivery. Additionally, we expanded our presence in close-in adjacencies, such as baked snacks with the successful integration of Give & Go. By realizing revenue and cost synergies, we grew that business double digit in 2021. We also expanded our presence in snack bars with the acquisition of Grenade in the U.K.

我們在高端餅乾領域也取得了顯著成長，其中Tate's的業績實現了兩位數成長，我們成功地將其轉型為門市直銷模式。此外，我們也透過成功整合Give & Go，拓展了在烘焙零食等鄰近領域的業務。透過實現營收和成本協同效應，該業務在2021年實現了兩位數成長。我們也透過收購英國的Grenade，擴大了在能量棒領域的市佔率。

Switching to Slide 10. We continue to further enhance and strengthen our portfolio in 2021, expanding our exposure to the growing profit pools in chocolate and biscuits as well as adjacent categories and the well-being and premium segments. We acquired 4 high-growth strategic assets: Chipita baked snacks in Europe, which just closed in January; Grenade well-being snack bars in the U.K.; Gourmet Food premium crackers in Australia; and Hu premium well-being snacks in the U.S. These acquisitions are worth $800 million in annual revenue, and they are well positioned to collectively deliver high single-digit growth for years to come. This takes our total number of acquisitions to 7 since 2018 and contributing over $1.5 billion of revenue.

切換到第10頁投影片。 2021年，我們繼續加強和優化產品組合，擴大在巧克力、餅乾以及相關品類、健康和高端市場等利潤增長迅速的領域中的佈局。我們收購了四項高成長策略資產：歐洲烘焙零食品牌Chipita（已於1月完成收購）；英國健康零食品牌Grenade；澳洲高端餅乾品牌Gourmet Food；以及美國高端健康零食品牌Hu。這些收購項目年收入達8億美元，預計在未來幾年內將實現接近兩位數的持續成長。自2018年以來，我們的收購總數已達7項，累計收入超過15億美元。

We also earned $1.5 billion in net proceeds from selling down on our beverage assets in 2021, enabling further investment in our brands and growth drivers. Additionally, we are in the process of completing a strategic review of our developed market gum business. We expect to complete that review and have more information to share with you at our May 10 Investor Day.

2021年，我們透過出售部分飲料資產淨賺15億美元，這筆資金將用於進一步投資我們的品牌和成長引擎。此外，我們正在對已開發市場口香糖業務進行策略評估。我們預計將在5月10日的投資者日上完成評估，並與您分享更多資訊。

2021 was a strong year, and we are well positioned for another year of strong shareholder returns in 2022 and beyond. By staying close to our consumers, executing our proven strategy and taking the appropriate actions to navigate input cost inflation and supply chain volatility, I am confident that we can deliver strong performance for years to come.

2021年業績表現強勁，我們已做好充分準備，迎接2022年及以後股東回報的持續成長。透過與消費者保持緊密聯繫，有效執行我們行之有效的策略，並採取適當措施應對投入成本上漲和供應鏈波動，我相信我們能夠在未來幾年持續取得優異的業績。

With that, I will hand over to Luca for more details on our financials.

接下來，我會把麥克風交給盧卡，讓他詳細介紹我們的財務狀況。

Thank you, Dirk, and good afternoon. Our full year and fourth quarter performance was strong in terms of revenue growth, volume, earnings and free cash flow. We delivered revenue growth for the year and quarter of 5.2% and 5.4%, respectively. Importantly, half of this performance was underpinned by volume.

謝謝Dirk，下午好。我們全年及第四季的業績表現強勁，營收成長、銷售、獲利和自由現金流均表現突出。全年及第四季營收分別成長了5.2%和5.4%。值得注意的是，其中一半的業績成長得益於銷量的成長。

Emerging markets increased 12% for the year and 11% for the quarter with strong performance across significant majority of countries, especially the BRICS. Despite a small group of countries, specifically in Southeast Asia continuing to face COVID-related challenges, overall, we are encouraged about the outlook for our EMs in the near and long term.

新興市場全年成長12%，季成長11%，絕大多數國家表現強勁，尤其是金磚國家。儘管少數國家，特別是東南亞國家，仍在面臨新冠疫情帶來的挑戰，但總體而言，我們對新興市場近期和長期的前景感到樂觀。

Developed markets grew 1.6% for the year, coming off an exceptional 2020 and 2.5% for the quarter off a strong comparison. As with our emerging markets, we are encouraged by the sustained performance, particularly in our key core snacks categories.

已開發市場全年成長1.6%，延續了2020年的卓越表現；本季成長2.5%，得益於強勁的基數效應。與新興市場一樣，我們對已開發市場的持續成長感到鼓舞，尤其是在我們核心的關鍵零食品類方面。

On Slide 13, you can see our portfolio performance. Chocolate and biscuits remain attractive and durable categories with very strong results both pre-pandemic, during the pandemic and, importantly, as we enter 2022. In addition, improved mobility has yielded growth in Gum & Candy versus 2020, approaching a return to pre-pandemic levels in many markets and back to growth versus 2019 in China.

在第13張投影片中，您可以查看我們的投資組合表現。巧克力和餅乾仍然是極具吸引力且持久的品類，在疫情前、疫情期間以及進入2022年後都取得了非常強勁的業績。此外，出行便利性的提高也帶動了口香糖和糖果品類的增長，與2020年相比有所增長，在許多市場已接近恢復到疫情前水平，在中國市場更是恢復了與2019年相比的增長。

Biscuits grew 3% for the year and 3.2% for the quarter. EMs were the big driver of performance, with majority of our AMEA and LA business delivering double-digit or high single-digit growth. This underscores the large long-term opportunity for our EM biscuit businesses as we continue to make investments in A&C portfolio growth and distribution expansion.

餅乾業務全年成長3%，季成長3.2%。新興市場是業績成長的主要驅動力，其中AMEA和LA地區的業務成長尤為顯著，實現了兩位數或接近兩位數的成長。這凸顯了新興市場餅乾業務的巨大長期發展潛力，我們將繼續增加對A&C產品組合成長和分銷管道擴張的投資。

Both global and local jewels brand, including Oreo, Chips Ahoy!, Barni and Club Social delivered strong growth. Chocolate grew more than 10% for the year and 8% for the quarter, with significant growth across both developed and emerging markets through both our global and local brands. Chocolate is a great category to be and, as in biscuits, we continue to make investments in our brands and capabilities to continue to drive its performance for the years to come. Gum & Candy posted 7% growth for the year and more than 11% growth for the quarter as increased mobility resulted in a return to growth in several key markets, especially within Latin America.

包括奧利奧、趣多多、巴尼和Club Social在內的全球和本土珠寶品牌均實現了強勁成長。巧克力業務全年成長超過10%，季度成長超過8%，在已開發市場和新興市場均實現了顯著成長，這得益於我們的全球和本土品牌。巧克力是一個極具發展潛力的品類，與餅乾業務一樣，我們將繼續投資於我們的品牌和能力建設，以推動其在未來幾年持續成長。口香糖和糖果業務全年成長7%，季度成長超過11%，這主要得益於出行量的增加，帶動了幾個關鍵市場（尤其是拉丁美洲市場）的成長。

Now let's review our market share performance on Slide 14. We continue to see good share performance on a 2-year cumulative basis as we prioritize A&C investments and execute well in most markets. We held or gained share in approximately 75% of our revenue base on a 2-year stack. Our biscuits and chocolate categories continue to do well, with 80% of our revenue base holding or gaining share. Overall, share gains versus 2019 were broad-based, with all regions growing share over a 2-year period.

現在讓我們回顧一下第14頁幻燈片中的市佔率表現。過去兩年累積來看，我們的市佔率持續保持良好成長，這得益於我們優先考慮廣告和廣告投資，並在大多數市場中取得了良好的執行效果。在過去兩年中，我們約75%的收入份額保持或有所增長。我們的餅乾和巧克力類別表現依然強勁，其中80%的營收份額維持或有所成長。總體而言，與2019年相比，市場份額的成長是全方位的，所有地區的市場份額在兩年內均有所增長。

A few of the more notable areas of share gains over this time include China, Russia, India, Brazil and Mexico biscuit; U.K., Russia and Australian chocolate; and China gum. As we move into Q1, we expect softer share performance driven by our North American segment as the combination of supply chain constraints from third-parties and labor shortages will pressure stocks and service levels.

在此期間，市佔率成長較為顯著的領域包括中國、俄羅斯、印度、巴西和墨西哥的餅乾；英國、俄羅斯和澳洲的巧克力；以及中國的口香糖。進入第一季度，我們預計北美地區的市佔率表現將放緩，因為第三方供應鏈的限制以及勞動力短缺將對庫存和服務水準構成壓力。

While the immediate effect of the strike is behind us, we have entered 2022 with low stocks, and we are working to rebuild inventory levels, which takes time in this environment, particularly as demand continues to be strong. We expect a gradual improvement of the situation as the year progresses.

雖然罷工的直接影響已經過去，但進入2022年時我們的庫存水準仍然較低，我們正在努力重建庫存，這在當前環境下需要時間，尤其是在需求持續強勁的情況下。我們預計隨著時間的推移，情況將逐步改善。

Now turning to Page 15. For the year, we delivered strong OI dollar growth of almost 6% driven by solid gross profit dollar increases and reduced overheads. For the quarter, profitability was pressured primarily due to the lag between commodities and ForEx-related inflation and implementation of pricing actions, specifically in North America where price increases became effective at the beginning of January.

現在翻到第15頁。全年來看，我們未平倉合約美元收入實現了近6%的強勁成長，這主要得益於毛利美元收入的穩定成長和管理費用的降低。本季度，獲利能力受到壓力，主要原因是商品和外匯相關的通膨與價格調整措施的實施之間存在滯後，尤其是在北美地區，價格上漲措施於1月初才生效。

Turning to regional performance on Slide 16. Europe grew 5% for the year and 6.5% for the quarter supported by strong execution and activation and continued recovery in the convenience away from home and travel retail channels. Our Q4 results were driven by some growth across major markets, including the U.K., Germany and Russia, underpinned by solid share gains. In chocolate, we delivered record results for the Christmas season, growing double digit against both 2020 and 2019. Biscuits and meals categories also delivered good results, while dollar growth for the year was high single digits driven by continued volume leverage, cost control and strong overhead management. Looking ahead in this region, we expect muted profitability in Q1, with improvement beginning in the second quarter as price increases in a number of countries take effect.

請參閱第16頁投影片，以了解區域績效。歐洲全年成長5%，季成長6.5%，這得益於強而有力的執行和推廣活動，以及便利商店、非居家消費通路和旅遊零售通路的持續復甦。第四季業績主要得益於英國、德國和俄羅斯等主要市場的成長，以及穩健的市佔率提升。巧克力業務在聖誕季取得了創紀錄的業績，與2020年和2019年相比均實現了兩位數成長。餅乾和餐食品類也表現良好，全年美元成長率接近兩位數，這主要得益於持續的銷售成長、成本控制和有效的管理費用管理。展望未來，我們預計該地區第一季獲利能力較為溫和，但隨著多個國家的價格上漲生效，獲利能力將從第二季開始改善。

North America declined by 0.6% for the year and 0.3% for Q4, lapping very strong high single-digit growth in the previous year. This performance includes healthy growth from our ventures portfolio. Softening in the quarter and second half were also driven by supply chain constraints and low inventory levels due to the strike and third-party labor constraints. North America OI declined minus 10.4% for the year and minus 20% for the quarter due to inflationary pressure and supply chain constraints. As mentioned earlier, we expect sequential improvement as pricing actions go into effect in Q1.

北美地區全年下滑0.6%，第四季下滑0.3%，與去年同期強勁的高個位數成長形成鮮明對比。這一業績得益於我們創投組合的穩健成長。第四季和下半年業績下滑也受到供應鏈受限以及罷工和第三方勞動力限制導致的低庫存水準的影響。受通膨壓力和供應鏈受限的影響，北美地區未平倉合約全年下降10.4%，第四季下降20%。如前所述，我們預計隨著價格措施在第一季生效，業績將會較上季改善。

AMEA grew 7.3% for the year and 5.8% for the quarter, showing continued strength across most of the region. India grew double digits for the year and continues to execute well as we invest for the future. We continue to extend our leadership position in chocolate, while the growth of our biscuit business continues to outpace larger competitors in the region. China grew low double digit for the year and high single digits for the quarter driven by continued share gains in both biscuits and gum. Australia and New Zealand also did well with solid performances in the year and in the quarter in chocolate and biscuits. AMEA increased OI dollars by more than 13% for the year due to strong volume leverage, productivity and overhead management while also increasing Working Media by double digits. Q4 growth was more muted due to commodity inflation. As in other regions, pricing actions to RGM are being implemented as of Q1.

亞太及中東地區全年成長7.3%，季成長5.8%，該地區大部分業務持續強勁成長。印度全年實現兩位數成長，並持續保持良好業績，同時我們也積極投資未來發展。我們在巧克力領域的領先地位不斷鞏固，餅乾業務的成長速度也持續超越該地區規模更大的競爭對手。中國全年實現兩位數低段成長，季度實現個位數高段成長，這主要得益於餅乾和口香糖市場份額的持續提升。澳洲和紐西蘭在巧克力和餅乾業務方面也表現出色，全年和季度業績均穩健。由於強勁的銷售成長、生產效率的提高以及成本控制，亞太及中東地區的營業收入全年增長超過13%，同時工作媒體業務也實現了兩位數成長。受大宗商品通膨影響，第四季成長較為溫和。與其他地區一樣，我們已從第一季開始實施零售商品價格調整措施。

Latin America turned in strong growth for the year of 20.4% and 19.7% for the quarter with overall share gains for 2021. Brazil delivered strong double-digit growth for the year and quarter. Mexico grew high single digits for both the year and the quarter and our Western Andean business grew high single digits for the year and mid-teens for the quarter. Adjusted OI dollars in Latin America increased high double digits for the year and more than 40% for the quarter. These increases were driven by broad-based growth across core snacking categories, effective pricing and the volume and mix impact of higher Gum & Candy. Inflationary pressure remains challenging, but we believe both RGM and volume growth will enable us to largely offset this dynamic in 2022.

拉丁美洲全年成長強勁，年增20.4%，季度成長19.7%，2021年整體市佔率有所提升。巴西全年和季度均實現了兩位數的強勁增長。墨西哥全年和季度均實現了接近兩位數的增長，而我們在安第斯山脈西部的業務全年實現了接近兩位數的增長，季度增長則達到了兩位數左右。拉丁美洲的調整後營業收入全年成長接近兩位數，季度成長超過40%。這些成長主要得益於核心零食品類的全面成長、有效的定價策略以及口香糖和糖果銷售和產品組合提升所帶來的正面影響。儘管通膨壓力依然嚴峻，但我們相信，零售利潤成長和銷售成長將使我們能夠在2022年基本抵銷這一影響。

Moving to EPS. Full year EPS grew 9% at constant currency. This growth was primarily driven by top line-driven operating gains.

接下來看每股盈餘（EPS）。以固定匯率計算，全年每股收益成長了9%。這一成長主要得益於營收成長帶來的營業利潤提升。

Turning to free cash flow and capital return on Slide 18. We delivered full year free cash flow of $3.2 billion, which included $300 million higher tax payments year-over-year, some related to our coffee JVs, IPOs and sell-downs. We continue to feel confident about our free cash flow trajectory as we move forward. And for the year, we returned $3.9 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

請參閱第18頁投影片，以了解自由現金流和資本回報。我們全年自由現金流為32億美元，其中包括年比增加的3億美元稅款，部分稅款與我們的咖啡合資企業、首次公開發行（IPO）和股份出售有關。我們對未來的自由現金流發展前景仍充滿信心。此外，我們全年以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還了39億美元。

Now let me provide some color on our 2022 outlook on Slide 20. We expect to deliver against our long-term growth algorithm that we see as a performance floor, particularly as revenue grows. As you are hearing across all sectors, we anticipate another year of material cost inflation which, in percentage terms, is expected to increase high single digits versus 2021. As such, pricing will be a larger top line contributor than in the previous years, but we do expect volume growth to also be a positive factor.

現在，我將在第20頁投影片中詳細介紹我們對2022年的展望。我們預計能夠實現我們長期成長演算法的目標，該演算法是我們視為業績底線的指標，尤其是在營收成長的情況下。正如您在各個行業所聽到的那樣，我們預計原材料成本將持續上漲，預計與2021年相比，漲幅將達到接近兩位數。因此，價格因素對營收的貢獻將比往年更大，但我們也預期銷售成長將是一個正面因素。

In this regard, a few more points. Our superior portfolio of brands and the consistent investments we have made and will continue to make in Working Media, marketing and sales, route-to-market and RGM capabilities position us well for sustained growth and profitability in this higher inflation environment. We believe we can continue being an effective driver of category value and volume growth, specifically in biscuits and chocolate. Our focus is not changing as we aim at growing profit dollars and dollar growth underpins our sustainable algorithm, cash flow and capital return. We had a history of cost excellence, which we expect to remain the case for 2022 and going forward. Our algorithm continues to be predicated on brand building and capabilities in sales and marketing also in 2022.

在這方面，還有幾點需要補充。我們擁有卓越的品牌組合，並且持續投資於媒體推廣、行銷、銷售管道和零售管理能力，這些都將幫助我們在高通膨環境下保持持續成長和獲利能力。我們相信，我們能夠繼續有效推動品類價值和銷售的成長，尤其是在餅乾和巧克力領域。我們的重點不會改變，我們的目標是提高利潤，而利潤成長是我們永續發展策略、現金流和資本回報的基石。我們一直以來都保持著卓越的成本控制，並預計在2022年及以後繼續保持這一優勢。 2022年，我們的策略仍將以品牌建立和銷售行銷能力為基礎。

All included, for the year, we expect mid-single-digit to high dollar growth and high single-digit EPS growth. Earnings phasing will reflect the current inflationary environment and the sequential introduction of pricing. We expect improved year-over-year gross profit dollar growth as pricing is fully realized and as we implement additional RGM strategies. But we do still expect some pressure in Q1 and partially in Q2. For Q1 specifically, we still expect to face larger supply chain headwinds in North America related to third-party partners and low inventory from last year's strike that should improve as the year progresses. With respect to free cash flow, we expect another year of $3 billion plus. In this outlook, we also expect an ETR in the low to mid-20s based on what we know today, interest expense of approximately $325 million and share repurchases of approximately $2 billion.

綜合來看，我們預期全年美元收入將達到中個位數至高個位數成長，每股盈餘也將達到高個位數成長。獲利公佈的階段將反映當前的通膨環境以及定價策略的逐步實施。隨著定價策略的全面落實以及我們實施更多零售成長策略，我們預計毛利年增率將有所改善。但我們仍然預期第一季和第二季部分時間會面臨一些壓力。具體到第一季度，我們預計北美地區的供應鏈仍將面臨較大的阻力，這與第三方合作夥伴以及去年罷工造成的低庫存有關，但隨著時間的推移，這種情況應該會有所改善。自由現金流方面，我們預計全年將超過30億美元。基於我們目前掌握的信息，我們預計有效稅率（ETR）將在20%左右，利息支出約為3.25億美元，股票回購約20億美元。

With that, let's open the line for questions.

接下來，我們開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) And we will take our first question from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們首先來回答摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼提出的問題。

There's been some discussion lately in the media about emerging markets potentially slowing down a bit as 2022 progresses. I think no one really knows for sure what will happen. But I'm just curious, it seems like things are fine for you now. But as you look ahead to your major regions or major countries, is there anything that you are particularly worried about, anything that you look at and say, "Oh, this could get a little worse as we go?" Or is it just sort of, "Hey, we're planning on steady as she goes?" And I'm just curious what's baked into your guidance potentially for a little bit of not demand destruction but a little bit of a worse sort of consumer around the world, perhaps?

最近媒體上有一些關於新興市場在2022年可能略有放緩的討論。我認為沒有人能真正確定未來會發生什麼。但我很好奇，目前看來你們的狀況似乎不錯。但展望未來，你們的主要地區或主要國家，有沒有什麼特別擔心的，有沒有什麼情況會讓你們覺得「哦，隨著時間的推移，情況可能會變得更糟？」或者你們只是覺得「嘿，我們計劃保持平穩發展」？我只是好奇，你們的業績指引中是否考慮到了全球消費者消費水準可能略有下降的情況？

Yes. Well, thanks, Ken. First of all, I would say that around the world, but also in emerging markets, today and for the last 3 years, our core categories have been doing quite well. Chocolate and biscuits have been growing very strongly and, in fact, better than they were before the pandemic. There's a number of factors at work with the consumers that are boosting the consumption and higher snacking. So we see very robust demand. And if I go to our key emerging markets, the BRIC countries, we see that in those 4 countries also very, very clearly.

是的。謝謝，肯。首先，我想說的是，在全球範圍內，包括新興市場，過去三年來，我們的核心品類表現都相當不錯。巧克力和餅乾的成長非常強勁，實際上比疫情前還要好。消費者的許多因素都在推動消費，零食需求也隨之增加。因此，我們看到了非常強勁的需求。如果我看看我們主要的新興市場，也就是金磚國家，我們在這四個國家也同樣看到了這一點。

As it relates to investments and support for our brands, we are also continuing to do that in emerging markets. If anything, that's where we increased the most. And I think that from a pricing perspective, we have been dealing with pricing in emerging markets over the years, and we know that we have to hit certain price points, and we're very careful with that. Having said that, we have already started to increase prices. In fact, the effects that you see in Q4, any price effects there, are largely coming from our emerging markets. We've increased prices in most emerging markets around the world. And as you can see, results have been very good. So we also have that very low elasticity that we are also seeing in the rest of the world. So everything is sort of aiming in the right direction. We feel that at this stage, there is no signs that it's slowing down in emerging markets. Obviously, in our projections of our algorithm, we have not taken the same height of performance that we've seen this year in our emerging markets. We've taken that a little bit more conservatively.

就投資和品牌支援而言，我們也在新興市場持續加大投入。事實上，我們在新興市場的投入增幅最大。從定價角度來看，多年來我們一直在應對新興市場的定價問題，我們深知必須達到一定的價格目標，因此我們在這方面非常謹慎。話雖如此，我們已經開始漲價。實際上，您在第四季度看到的任何價格波動，主要來自新興市場。我們在全球大多數新興市場都提高了價格。如您所見，結果非常理想。因此，我們在新興市場也看到了與世界其他地區一樣的極低價格彈性。所以一切都在朝著正確的方向發展。我們認為，目前新興市場的成長動能沒有放緩的跡象。當然，在我們的演算法預測中，我們並沒有假設新興市場今年的表現會像現在這樣強勁。我們採取了較保守的預測策略。

So based on those two, seeing what we're seeing and the experience that we have and, I believe, us doing all the right things as it relates to pricing, investments, gaining distribution, which is another big driver in emerging markets for us, and the fact that we feel that we have been relatively realistic in what we forecast for emerging markets, we feel pretty good. We think that emerging markets will deliver for us in 2022.

基於上述兩點，結合我們目前所見所聞和經驗，以及我們在定價、投資、拓展分銷管道（這是我們在新興市場的另一大驅動力）等方面所做的一切正確舉措，再加上我們認為我們對新興市場的預測相對務實，因此我們感覺相當樂觀。我們相信新興市場將在2022年為我們帶來豐厚的回報。

Great. That's clear. And then a quick follow-up, if I can. Luca, you touched on this a bit. But is it reasonable, just given your comments about the phasing of pricing and maybe the timing of inflation too, to think about the flow of your years maybe being a little bit more back-half loaded and perhaps a little bit more challenged in the front half? And if that's true, are there any specific timing issues we should consider other than pricing and inflation just as we model ahead?

好的，明白了。如果可以的話，我再補充一點。盧卡，你剛才稍微提到了這一點。但考慮到你之前關於價格波動階段以及通膨時間安排的評論，我們是否可以合理地認為，未來幾年的發展趨勢可能是後半段較為強勁，而前半段則面臨更多挑戰？如果是這樣，除了價格和通膨之外，我們在進行未來建模時，是否還需要考慮其他具體的時機因素？

Thank you, Ken. It is mostly pricing and inflation phasing that will drive the gross profit, specifically as a line in the P&L progression throughout the year. Obviously, you saw the number being pressured in Q4. But as you look closely on the segment profitability data that we disclosed, you see that the Q4 GP pressure came mostly from North America where we have just announced pricing. And so you will see a sequential progression that is positive in the gross profit line as of Q1, but the most of the benefit to hit our guidance is going to come in the second part of the year.

謝謝，肯。毛利主要受定價和通膨階段性因素的影響，尤其是在全年損益表中。顯然，您也看到了第四季毛利面臨的壓力。但如果您仔細查看我們揭露的各業務板塊獲利能力數據，您會發現第四季度毛利壓力主要來自北美，而我們剛剛公佈了北美地區的定價策略。因此，您會看到毛利自第一季以來呈環比增長，但要達到我們預期目標，大部分收益將在今年下半年才能顯現。

And as I said, there are 2 elements there. One is pricing implementation, and there might be multiple pricing waves. The second one is the fact that, particularly in Europe, pricing will come into effect as of Q2 and in other places as well. And third, it is the fact that inflation, given the favorable commodity pipeline that we had in 2021 in Q1, commodity pressure is most acute in the first half of the year. But you will see a better trend in GP dollar as of Q1 and sequentially, it will improve over the quarters.

正如我所說，這裡有兩個因素。一是定價機制的實施，可能會分多個階段進行。二是定價機制，尤其是在歐洲，將於第二季生效，其他地區也是如此。三是通膨因素，鑑於2021年第一季有利的大宗商品供應，大宗商品價格壓力在上半年最為顯著。但從第一季開始，美元匯率將呈現好轉趨勢，並在接下來的幾季中持續改善。

We'll take our next question from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將回答來自美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭提出的問題。

Luca, maybe just following up on Ken's questioning, just a couple of sort of bridging from '21 to '22 questions, if you will. If we look, first, have we quantified or can you quantify just how much the acquisitions contribute to earnings growth in '22 versus '21, adjusted EPS growth?

盧卡，也許我想接著肯的提問幾個問題，算是銜接一下2021年和2022年的情況。首先，我們是否已經量化，或者你能量化一下，收購對2022年獲利成長（調整後每股盈餘成長）的貢獻程度？

Look, the Chipita acquisition is a material acquisition, obviously, in terms of size but also the number of countries it spans across. And it will be fully integrated, but it will take a little bit of time. I will say that, without giving you specific numbers, there is a moderate positive impact on EPS next year, but you will see the full benefit of the revenue and cost synergies as of Q4 and, potentially and obviously, in 2023. So it will be a modest contribution all in all considered.

你看，收購Chipita顯然是一項重大收購，不僅規模龐大，而且涉及的國家數量也很多。它會被完全整合，但這需要一些時間。我可以說，雖然不提供具體數字，但明年每股收益會有適度的正面影響，而收入和成本協同效應的全部效益將從第四季度開始顯現，並可能在2023年進一步顯現。所以總的來說，這筆貢獻是有限的。

Okay. And just more of a contribution in '23 versus '22.

好的。而且2023年的貢獻比2022年更大。

Absolutely. I think you're going to see the full benefit, and I think you will be pleased in 2023.

當然。我認為你會看到全部的好處，而且我相信你在2023年會感到滿意。

Okay. And then if we look at below the operating profit line, in 2021, in the bridge that you laid out in Slide 17, including share repurchases, the below the operating profit line items contributed about $0.09 of earnings in '21. And I guess just looking at the guidance, it just seems like interest expense, the tax rate could both be a bit of a headwind. So can you just sort of give us -- should we expect that there would be some earnings contribution below the operating profit line? And if so, I guess, would it be mainly share repurchases? Just trying to square how much benefit we get below the operating profit line.

好的。那麼，如果我們看一下2021年營業利潤線以下的部分，根據您在第17張幻燈片中列出的結構，包括股票回購在內，這些項目貢獻了約0.09美元的收益。我猜想，從業績指引來看，利息支出和稅率都可能構成一定的阻力。所以，您能否告訴我們－我們是否應該預期營業利潤線以下的部分會有一些收益貢獻？如果有，我想這主要會是股票回購嗎？我只是想弄清楚營業利潤線以下的部分究竟能帶來多少收益。

Interest costs will be up around about $20 million, $25 million. So it is $0.01 of EPS headwind. Tax rates will be a little bit higher, but not much, and so I would say a slight headwind. Obviously, I can't comment very much on the joint ventures as those are publicly traded vehicle. But the biggest benefit is going to be most likely around share repurchases. In terms of the JVs, I will refer back to what was said about KDP profit guidance for 2022. And I think that's the stance we have taken for that.

利息成本將增加約2000萬至2500萬美元，將對每股收益造成0.01美元的負面影響。稅率會略有上升，但幅度不大，因此我認為這會帶來輕微的負面影響。顯然，由於合資企業是上市公司，我無法對此發表太多評論。但最大的收益很可能反映在股票回購方面。關於合資企業，我會再次提及先前對KDP 2022年獲利預期的說明。我認為我們對此的立場也是如此。

We'll take our next question from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

接下來，我們將回答來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾提出的問題。

Perhaps Luca, could you just comment first on what your outlook or expectation would be in terms of gross margin change year-over-year for the full year? And I guess, to the extent you see some full year gross margin compression, more would need then to come from SG&A leverage to get to your sort of mid-single-digit constant currency EBIT target. So in that case, what would be those SG&A drivers that you would have to lean more heavily on this year potentially, given what your answer on the gross margin is?

盧卡，您能否先談談您對全年毛利率年比變動的預期？我猜想，如果您預計全年毛利率會有所下降，那麼就需要更多地依靠銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）的槓桿作用，才能達到您設定的個位數中段固定匯率息稅前利潤（EBIT）目標。那麼，鑑於您對毛利率的預期，您認為今年哪些銷售、管理及行政費用驅動因素需要重點關注呢？

Sure. I think you know that we try to move away from gross margin percentages. And I think that has served us well. So talking about gross profit dollars, 2022 is no exception to what we have said consistently throughout the years. We aim at getting at 4-plus percent on that specific line of the P&L. And as I said, I think you're going to see year-over-year GP dollar growth as of Q1 but will be most pronounced in the second part of the year.

當然。我想您也知道，我們一直在努力減少對毛利率的關注。我認為這種做法對我們很有效。所以，就毛利而言，2022 年的目標與我們多年來堅持的理念一致。我們的目標是使損益表中的毛利率達到 4% 以上。正如我所說，我認為從第一季開始，毛利就會比去年同期成長，但下半年成長速度會更加顯著。

I think, again, as you dissect the numbers, you clearly see that the pressure in Q4 on the GP line, which was slightly positive, comes mostly from North America. And what you have to believe for the GP line to improve, as the biggest change that has to happen, it is pricing going into effect in North America. The first indication is that, a, price was accepted by the retailers; and b, we see our prices going up in the marketplace. So I feel cautiously positive about that, which is clearly the biggest driver of GP progression over the quarters.

我認為，再次分析這些數據，你會清楚地看到，第四季毛利（略有成長）的壓力主要來自北美。而要讓毛利真正改善，最大的改變在於北美地區的定價策略。首先，零售商已經接受了新的定價；其次，我們看到市場上的價格正在上漲。因此，我對這一點持謹慎樂觀的態度，這顯然是推動毛利季度成長的最大動力。

In terms of SG&A, we will continue investing in advertising. Obviously, we will be very sensible because there are situations, specifically in North America, where we don't have enough stock. And so we are calibrating exactly where we want to spend. But as Dirk said, in emerging markets, we will continue pushing and we will continue pushing in the other regions too. The point here is the last thing we want to do as we implement pricing is cutting back on A&C investment.

在銷售、管理及行政費用方面，我們將持續加大廣告投入。當然，我們會非常謹慎，因為在某些情況下，尤其是在北美，我們的廣告庫存不足。因此，我們正在精確地調整支出方向。但正如德克所說，在新興市場，我們將繼續加大投入，在其他地區也是如此。關鍵在於，在實施價格調整的同時，我們最不希望看到的就是削減廣告和宣傳上的投入。

As far as overheads and productivities, we will continue the great job that we have done over the last few years and particularly in the last couple of years. Excluding the acquisitions, our overlying pure cost SG&A is down both in 2020 and in 2021, and my goal is to keep that line down year-over-year. Productivity obviously is going to be good for the year as we look at it, but I'll be commenting more as we publish Q1 about all these specific lines.

就管理費用和生產效率而言，我們將繼續維持過去幾年，尤其是近兩年所取得的優異成績。剔除收購項目後，我們2020年及2021年的基本成本－銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）均有所下降，我的目標是維持該項費用年減。從目前來看，生產效率在今年顯然會表現良好，但關於這些具體項目，我會在發布第一季財報時再做更詳細的說明。

And then Mondelez is guiding to positive volume growth for the full year despite some supply chain challenges and limited shipments in Q1 maybe in the U.S. and Europe and, obviously, the higher pricing. So I guess what sort of elasticity relationship is Mondelez underwriting for the year?

儘管面臨一些供應鏈挑戰，且第一季美國和歐洲的出貨量可能有限，以及價格上漲等因素，億滋國際仍預計全年銷售將實現正成長。那麼，億滋國際對全年銷售成長的預期彈性究竟如何呢？

Look, we have been a little bit conservative on elasticity. As Dirk said, elasticity is low at this point in time based on what we see across the board, but we are planning for historical levels. So that's the type of elasticity we have planned. And I think you know the number in general, it is onetime elasticity, give or take, but I expect to do better than that.

你看，我們在彈性係數方面一直比較保守。正如德克所說，根據我們目前觀察到的情況，彈性係數總體偏低，但我們的計劃是按照歷史水準來製定的。所以這就是我們計劃的彈性係數。我想你也知道，這個數字通常是一次性的彈性係數，上下會有波動，但我預期實際結果會更好。

And we'll take our next question from Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse.

接下來，我們將回答來自瑞士信貸的羅伯特·莫斯科提出的問題。

I guess one of the surprises in the results is that North America shipments were weak. And all of us look at Nielsen retail data, and it looks really, really strong. So what's happening at retail? Is that just strong consumer takeaway and the inventories are getting depleted? Should we expect that retail consumption to then weaken in the first quarter as a result of running out of inventory? Maybe help us bridge why it looks so good from a consumption data? And then I had a quick follow-up.

我想，結果中最令人意外的一點是北美地區的出貨量疲軟。我們都看了尼爾森的零售數據，看起來非常強勁。那麼零售業到底發生了什麼事？只是因為消費者購買力強勁，庫存正在減少嗎？我們是否應該預期，由於庫存不足，第一季的零售消費將會疲軟？或許我們可以解釋一下，為什麼從消費數據來看，情況卻如此樂觀？之後我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. Demand remains very robust. But the growth that you see is -- or of our growth that you see is impacted by supply chain constraints and phasing of some of the price actions. And so in between those is our inventory, of course. And if you look at North America, we grew or we were flat for the year, let's say. But for a 2-year CAGR, we're at 4%, which is still quite strong.

是的，需求依然非常強勁。但是，您看到的成長——或者說我們目前的成長——受到供應鏈限制和部分價格政策分階段實施的影響。當然，庫存也是影響因素之一。以北美市場為例，我們今年的成長情況可以說是持平。但兩年複合年增長率（CAGR）達到了4%，仍然相當強勁。

If you look at the last quarters, we had the strike in Q3, which left us with low inventory levels. And although improving, it's going slower than you would normally expect because of all the supply chain disruption that everybody is experiencing. And so we think that we will still continue to see on shelf effects from the strike throughout Q1. We also work more with external manufacturing than our colleagues. And those external manufacturers are facing labor challenges. And we expect also that we will continue to see some pressures in that area, at least for Q1.

回顧上個季度，第三季度我們遭遇了罷工，導致庫存水準偏低。雖然情況有所改善，但由於供應鏈中斷的影響，改善速度比預期慢。因此，我們認為罷工對貨架商品的影響將持續到第一季。此外，我們與外部製造商的合作也比同行更多。而這些外部製造商正面臨勞動力短缺的挑戰。我們預計，至少在第一季度，這方面的壓力仍將持續存在。

And then the biggest difference probably is that we announced price increases for January 1, so they were not yet reflected in Q4, but you will start to see that as we report Q1. And we continue to work on our broader RGM capabilities. So as you look at Nielsen, you start to see at the moment the effect of those price increases, that's why our Nielsen starts to look better. But if you look at the Nielsen that we saw from last year, that's where you could see the effect of our supply issues.

最大的區別可能在於，我們宣布的價格上漲已於1月1日生效，因此尚未反映在第四季度財報中，但隨著我們發布第一季財報，您將會看到這些變化。我們也持續提升整體零售、市場和行銷（RGM）能力。因此，如果您查看尼爾森數據，目前就能看到這些價格上漲的影響，這也是為什麼我們的尼爾森數據開始好轉的原因。但如果您查看去年的尼爾森數據，就能看出我們供應問題的影響。

So as we look at Q1, we expect the top line in North America to improve. The margins will also improve, but it's going to be sequentially. As I said, pricing has been executed across U.S., Canada and our ventures. We are continuing to simplify our portfolio, and we are also taking actions to increase capacity, work, more temporary labor and so on, so that we sort of ease the pressure on our supply chain. We are continuing to invest in our brands. As Luca said, we will be careful to invest in those brands where we have good supply. But with the price increases, we are determined that we will have to continue to support our brands. And as you will see as these initiatives take effect in '22, the top and the bottom line growth will start to come back for North America.

展望第一季度，我們預計北美地區的營收將有所改善。利潤率也會提高，但需要環比成長。正如我之前所說，我們已經在美國、加拿大以及我們的合資企業中實施了定價策略。我們正在持續簡化產品組合，並採取措施提高產能、增加工作量、引進更多臨時工等等，以緩解供應鏈的壓力。我們將持續投資於旗下品牌。正如盧卡所說，我們會謹慎地投資那些供應充足的品牌。但隨著價格上漲，我們決心繼續支持旗下品牌。正如您將在2022年看到的，隨著這些措施的生效，北美地區的營收和利潤成長將開始恢復。

Maybe a last remark, the bottom line will be sequential because, if you look at it year-over-year, Q1 was a very good year last year. So you will still see some year-over-year pressure. And we have that lower inventory issue that I was referring to. But overall, you will see a very good improvement over the coming quarters.

最後補充一點，最終業績將呈現環比成長，因為如果同比來看，去年第一季業績非常出色。所以同比仍會面臨一些壓力。此外，還有我之前提到的庫存下降問題。但總體而言，未來幾季業績將顯著改善。

Okay. Well, my follow-up, you've been providing us with market share trends on a 2-year basis. But are you going to continue that in 2022? Because I think people will start to judge you more on a year-over-year basis. How will you represent your market share trends?

好的。我的後續問題是，你們一直以來都是每兩年提供一次市佔率趨勢數據。那麼，你們2022年還會繼續這樣做嗎？因為我認為人們會開始更多地根據年度數據來評判你們。你們將如何呈現你們的市佔率趨勢？

Yes. No, we are going to go back to year-over-year. We thought it was useful with the pandemic because there was a number of effects, last year and also this year, exceptional effects that influenced the market share. And so we thought it was better to keep on comparing market share compared to pre-pandemic. Now that the pandemic is not behind us but improving, we feel that we can go back to normal market share.

是的。不，我們將恢復同比分析。我們認為在疫情期間採用年比分析比較合適，因為去年和今年都出現了一些特殊情況，影響了市場份額。所以我們認為最好還是將市佔率與疫情前進行比較。現在疫情雖然尚未結束，但正在好轉，我們認為可以恢復使用正常的同比分析方法了。

For instance, if you look at 2021, you have the U.S. strike in there, which affects, of course, our market share. But I think it's important to look at how the U.S. has been performing versus what it was before the pandemic and then excluding the strike. In Canada, this year, we were out of a listing with one of the most important customers there for quite a while, which also, of course, affected our market share. But we are back into that client, so the market share is going to come back. And then we had also exceptional effects in the U.K. chocolate last year where one of our competitors had a major supply chain effect, which then benefited us this year that supply chain is back up and running. So as a consequence, we'll give back some of that market share. And then we had one of our plants in France, which was affected last year, and we were not able to supply the market, so that had an effect for us too.

例如，回顧2021年，美國罷工事件無疑影響了我們的市場佔有率。但我認為，重要的是要對比疫情爆發前和疫情後（排除罷工影響）美國市場的表現。在加拿大，今年我們與當地最重要的客戶之一失去了合作關係，當然也影響了我們的市場份額。但我們現在已經重新獲得了該客戶的供貨，市佔率將會回升。此外，去年我們在英國巧克力市場也受到了特殊影響，我們的一個競爭對手的供應鏈受到了嚴重衝擊，而今年由於該供應鏈恢復正常運轉，我們反而從中受益。因此，我們將失去部分市場份額。去年，我們在法國的一家工廠也受到了影響，導致我們無法向市場供貨，這也對我們造成了一定的影響。

So there's all these -- and last year, I'm not going into the details about our competitors, but last year, we had big wins because our supply chain performed better than our competitors, I would say. So the main thing for us was to show the accumulated over the 2 years. And over the 2 years, we see a very solid increase versus what it was before the pandemic. And going forward, we will start to compare year-over-year, unless there is exceptional effects, which we can then inform you about.

所以，以上種種——去年，我不想贅述競爭對手的具體情況，但去年我們取得了巨大成功，因為我們的供應鏈表現優於競爭對手。因此，對我們來說，最重要的是展示兩年來的累積業績。這兩年來，我們看到業績與疫情前相比實現了非常穩健的成長。展望未來，我們將開始進行年比比較，除非出現特殊情況，屆時我們會及時通知大家。

We'll take our next question from Chris Growe with Stifel.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Stifel 公司的 Chris Growe 提出的問題。

I just had a question for you. First, I think, a question for Luca. In relation to your hedging, there was a comment that you're about 70% hedged for the year. I do want to get a sense if that would be considered normal or above or below where you normally would be at this time of the year. And then just to understand, because you're quite hedged in 2021 as well, the degree to which some of these unhedged costs, freight or packaging, things that you can't hedge, are those like a lingering risk to 2022? Or do you have a better read on those costs for the coming year?

我有個問題想問您。首先，我想先問盧卡一個問題。關於您的避險，有人提到您今年的避險率約為70%。我想了解一下，這個比例在往年這個時候是正常水平，還是高於或低於通常水平。另外，由於您在2021年的避險率也很高，我想了解一下，那些未避險的成本，例如運費或包裝費等無法避險的費用，在多大程度上會成為2022年的持續風險？或者您對來年的這些成本有更清楚的預估？

Thank you for the question. It's a very good one. 70% is pretty much in line with what we had in last year. It is higher than what it has been historically. And over time, what we have done is we have moved the needle up in terms of going longer because, obviously, that gives us the opportunity at the low levels to buy more. And so we have the opportunity to sit back and wait until the situation evolves. And mostly, of these hedges, are 2 options, and they are not straightforward covered. So we still have flexibility, should one of these commodities go over. And I think that's a great advantage.

謝謝你的提問，這是一個很好的問題。 70%的比例與去年基本持平，高於歷史平均。隨著時間的推移，我們一直在增加長期持股比例，因為這顯然讓我們有機會在低點買入更多。這樣，我們就有時間靜觀其變，等待市場發展。而且，這些對沖策略主要涉及兩個選擇權，並非直接對沖。因此，即使其中一種商品價格上漲，我們仍然擁有一定的彈性。我認為這是一個巨大的優勢。

So I don't feel particularly worried about the remaining 30% at this point. But there are parts where there might still be pressure. What we see these days is a little bit more pressure coming out of dairy. And potentially, we will have to consider additional pricing for that in some places where we sell dairy-based products. And we also see some pressure in packaging and some ingredients.

所以目前我對剩下的30%並不特別擔心。但有些領域可能仍面臨壓力。我們現在看到乳製品行業的壓力略有增加。或許，在我們銷售乳製品的某些地區，我們不得不考慮為此提高價格。此外，包裝和一些原料方面也存在一些壓力。

Now the assumption we have, at this point in time for the second part of the year, is inflation for those that is in line to what we have seen and what we are seeing these days. There could be potentially more. I don't expect a material number at this point in time, but we got a little bit surprised on these unhedgeable commodities and exposures in the second part of last year. So we are very vigilant. And if in case they go up, we will have to price and we will do so.

目前，我們對今年下半年通膨的預期是，這些產業的通膨水準將與我們過去和現在的觀察結果相符。當然，通膨也可能進一步上升。我預計目前不會出現實質的波動，但去年下半年，我們確實在這些無法對沖的大宗商品和相關風險敞口方面遇到了一些意料之外的情況。因此，我們保持高度警惕。如果通膨真的上漲，我們將不得不進行相應的定價，而且我們也會這樣做。

Okay. Just one other question in relation to what have been some really strong market share trends, and that's the culmination of a lot of work and marketing and new products and your categories doing so well also. I guess I'm just curious, as you think about your pricing strategy for the coming years, it's but one example, just the degree to which you think there's maybe a little risk to your market share. Are you taking pricing that largely reflects what your competitors are doing and inflation in that market and, therefore, there shouldn't be a whole lot of movement in share? Just trying to get a sense given how strong it's been, if that could be a bit of a watch point.

好的。關於目前強勁的市佔率成長趨勢，我還有一個問題。這得益於大量的市場推廣、新產品開發以及貴公司各品類的出色表現。我只是好奇，在您考慮未來幾年的定價策略時（這只是一個例子），您認為市場佔有率可能有多大的風險？您的定價策略是否主要參考了競爭對手的定價以及市場通膨情況，因此市場佔有率應該不會有太大波動？鑑於目前的強勁勢頭，我只是想了解一下，這是否是一個需要關注的重點。

Yes. Well, our pricing is largely driven by what we think is acceptable to the consumer. We don't know what our competitors are planning until they do it. And so we try to price in line with what we think our consumers are prepared to pay for our brands. And that is different between emerging markets and developed markets. So in developed markets where you're largely talking about supermarkets and there's a whole bunch of pricing effects, you have a little bit more liberty. In emerging markets, we need to hit certain price points. So we do a lot of work on RGM price pack architecture and so on.

是的。我們的定價很大程度上取決於我們認為消費者能夠接受的價格範圍。在競爭對手採取行動之前，我們無法預知他們的計畫。因此，我們會努力使定價與我們認為消費者願意為我們的品牌支付的價格相符。新興市場和已開發市場的情況有所不同。在已開發市場，由於主要涉及超市等眾多定價因素，我們擁有更大的定價自由。而在新興市場，我們需要達到特定的價格目標。因此，我們在零售商品包裝（RGM）的價格架構等方面投入了大量精力。

So we expect that we will be very sensible. We're working very hard on RGM and better understanding what is possible for pricing for our brands, what is acceptable to the consumer. As you know, many years ago, we've had a few episodes where we probably went a little bit overboard on pricing. So we will step a little bit more careful as it relates to pricing. As I was explaining, in Q4, we've been pricing in emerging markets. And so far, that is working really well for us. And so it seems to be that our methodology is working. We'll see what happens in the U.S. and in Europe. But at this stage, it feels pretty solid, and we don't expect that there will be any major issues.

所以我們希望能夠保持謹慎。我們正在努力改進RGM（零售成長模型），以更好地了解我們品牌的定價可能性以及消費者能夠接受的價格範圍。如你所知，多年前，我們曾有過幾次定價過高的情況。因此，在定價方面，我們會更加謹慎。正如我剛才解釋的，第四季我們一直在新興市場進行定價。到目前為止，這種定價方式效果非常好。所以看來我們的定價方法是有效的。我們會觀察美國和歐洲市場的情況。但就目前而言，感覺相當穩固，我們預計不會有任何重大問題。

Going forward, second half and into '23, we will see what the inflationary pressure is going to be, but I can assure you that we will step very carefully and make sure that we continue to see volume growth for our brands.

展望未來，進入下半年和 2023 年，我們將觀察通膨壓力，但我可以向你們保證，我們將非常謹慎地行事，確保我們的品牌銷售繼續成長。

We'll take our next question from David Palmer with Evercore ISI.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer 提出的問題。

Great. A question on pricing, we can see some clear pricing that you're taking in developed markets here into '22. With the positive volume guidance, I don't want to get too carried away about the incremental pricing, are you thinking that there might be some moderation in pricing from emerging markets in '22 versus '21? Or should that be very similar?

好的。關於定價，我們可以看到你們在已開發市場2022年的定價策略已經很明確了。鑑於銷售預期積極，我不想過度關注價格的增幅，您認為2022年新興市場的定價會比2021年有所下調嗎？還是應該非常接近？

Very similar is the straight answer, David. There are pockets where we don't see the level of inflation that we have for the totality of the company. But in general terms, particularly around ForEx, there are places where there is a little bit more inflation. And so given all the puts and takes, pricing-wise, you're going to see a level of pricing in emerging markets that is in the same ballpark of 2021, a little bit higher. As a reminder, we implemented, I believe, 2 price waves in places like Russia in 2021. We implemented, I believe, 3 price waves in Brazil. And I can go on and on and talk about Mexico, Southeast Asia, [Manaf] in South Africa, where we have implemented multiple rounds in 2021 as well.

答案很直接，David。有些地方的通膨水準沒有公司整體水準那麼高。但總體而言，尤其是在外匯市場，有些地方的通膨會略高一些。因此，考慮到各種交易的利弊，從定價的角度來看，新興市場的定價水準與2021年大致相同，甚至略高一些。提醒一下，我們在2021年在俄羅斯實施了兩輪價格調整，在巴西實施了三輪。我還可以繼續說下去，例如墨西哥、東南亞，還有南非的馬納夫（Manaf），我們在2021年也在這些地方實施了多輪價格調整。

Great. And just thinking about your contribution to growth in '22 versus '21, you mentioned how, in the last couple of years, perhaps you've gotten some points of distribution gains, particularly in developed markets from smaller brands that may not have had access or might have had more issues with supply chain, even though you gave some of that back in '21. I wonder if you suspect you'll have some tough comparisons in developed markets against smaller brands this year. But then I think about the ability for you to have new product news this year and then the acquired businesses that you've had, they could possibly get into greater distribution. So I'm trying to think about how you're thinking about the puts and takes of what seems to be some headwinds and some tailwinds going into this year.

太好了。說到您在2022年與2021年相比對成長的貢獻，您提到過去幾年，您或許在分銷渠道方面取得了一些進展，尤其是在發達市場，一些規模較小的品牌可能之前沒有渠道進入市場，或者在供應鏈方面存在更多問題，儘管您在2021年也做出了一些讓步。我想知道您是否預料到今年在已開發市場與規模較小的品牌相比會面臨一些嚴峻的挑戰。但轉念一想，您今年可能會推出新產品，而且您收購的業務也可能獲得更廣泛的分銷管道。所以我在思考，您是如何看待今年可能面臨的各種利弊權衡的。

Yes. So I would say, first of all, on the smaller brands, that effect is certainly continuing in Q4, and they continue to do well. To the extent that if we have some supply issues, it is sometimes in those smaller brands, because they keep on selling at the higher levels we had during the pandemic, that sometimes give us some capacity pressure. So we are trying to do whatever we can to deal with those capacity issues, of course. But we are, at the moment, assuming that gradually they will give back a little bit, but we do still think that those brands will keep some of that momentum that we started to see during the pandemic.

是的。首先，我想說的是，就小眾品牌而言，這種影響在第四季度仍在持續，它們的表現仍然良好。如果出現供應問題，有時會集中在這些小眾品牌上，因為它們的銷售量一直保持在疫情期間的高位，這有時會給我們帶來一些產能壓力。所以，我們當然正在盡一切努力解決這些產能問題。但目前，我們預計它們的銷售量會逐漸回落，但我們仍然認為這些品牌會保持疫情期間開始出現的成長勢頭。

And you are right, our global brands have performed really well this year. This was a year where our global brands outgrew our local brands. Last year, in '20, it was the local brands who outgrew the global brands. The reason is because Oreo, Milka and Cadbury, our top 3 brands, continued to be high single digit to double digit. And then you have the recovery of a brand like Toblerone, which is largely sold in world travel retail; or Trident, the gum, which is, of course, sold on the go. And they were heavily disrupted in 2020. The local brands, as I was saying, still are doing quite well. They are in the mid-single-digit growth range. And we don't necessarily see that slowing down going into next year.

您說得對，我們全球品牌今年的表現確實非常出色。今年，我們的全球品牌成長速度超過了本土品牌。而去年，也就是2020年，則是本土品牌的成長速度超過了全球品牌。原因在於，我們三大頂級品牌——奧利奧、妙卡和吉百利——的成長率持續保持在個位數到兩位數的高點。此外，像瑞士三角巧克力（Toblerone）這樣的品牌也實現了復甦，它主要透過全球旅遊零售管道銷售；還有Trident口香糖，​​它當然是面向消費者的便利品牌。這些品牌在2020年都受到了嚴重的衝擊。正如我剛才所說，本土品牌的表現依然相當不錯，成長率維持在個位數中段。我們預計這種成長勢頭在明年也不會放緩。

And then there is the additional effect from the acquisitions. Of course, Chipita, you will not see that in our top line until the acquisition is done for 12 months. So you won't see an effect from that one. But you will see a good year for Give & Go this coming year. We are expecting. And also a brand like Perfect Snacks, which is a snack bar, which is also largely consumed on the go, that was affected by the pandemic, we're also expecting that to see a good growth. Tate's, we have moved on to DSD, saw very solid, very strong high double-digit growth there this year, which we think will continue into next year. So yes, there is an additional effect. Also important to mention is that the price increase has covered all the brands in the U.S., the global brands, the local brands and the venture brands.

此外，收購也會帶來額外影響。當然，Chipita，在收購完成12個月之前，您不會在我們的營收中看到任何影響。所以您暫時看不到收購帶來的影響。但我們預計Give & Go明年將迎來良好的業績。此外，像Perfect Snacks這樣的品牌，它是一種零食棒，主要面向外帶消費，雖然受到疫情的影響，但我們也預計它今年將實現良好的成長。 Tate's，我們已經轉向直接送貨上門（DSD）模式，今年實現了非常穩健、強勁的兩位數增長，我們認為這種增長勢頭將推遲到明年。所以，是的，收購確實會帶來額外影響。另外要說明的是，此次漲價涵蓋了美國的所有品牌，包括全球品牌、本地品牌和合資品牌。

We'll take our next question from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將回答來自高盛的傑森·英格利希提出的問題。

A couple of questions. It looks from everything we see like inflation, well, particularly owners in the U.S., is maybe kind of close to peaking. But it sounds like it's still building in markets like Europe and elsewhere. Can you walk us around the world real quick and tell us what you're seeing in terms of cadence, the level of pace, magnitude of inflation?

我有幾個問題。從我們目前掌握的資訊來看，通膨，尤其是美國的通膨，似乎已經接近高峰。但聽起來在歐洲和其他一些市場，通膨仍在持續。您能否簡單介紹一下全球通膨的節奏、速度和幅度？

Yes. Sure. I'll take a stab at it. I will start by saying that the inflation is really the highest in the U.S. And look, it might be at the highest point in the U.S. right now, I don't necessarily see it going down in the second part of the year. So I want to make that point first. In terms of inflation, look, majority of the commodities we procure, they are global commodities. And so the inflationary pressure is pretty much the same around the world. Logistics costs is on the rise everywhere around the world, not to the level that we see in the U.S. And then there are packaging-related costs and ingredients that are pretty much consistent across the world.

是的，當然。我來試著解釋一下。首先，我想說的是，美國的通貨膨脹率確實最高。而且，即使現在美國的通貨膨脹率可能處於最高點，我也不認為它在今年下半年會下降。所以我想先強調這一點。就通貨膨脹而言，我們採購的商品大部分都是全球性商品。因此，世界各地的通膨壓力基本上相同。物流成本在全球範圍內都在上漲，但沒有美國那麼高。此外，包裝成本和原料成本在全球範圍內也基本一致。

In terms of inflation, where it is mostly acute these days, it is in places where we have seen currencies weakening versus the dollar. It is in places like Russia. It is in places like Brazil. But overall, if you look around the world, in terms of inflationary pressure, I would say there are, yes, somewhere some peaks. But overall, it is fairly even, I would say. There are certain commodities that are more impacted than others. Cocoa, for instance, is a little bit more benign in 2022 than it has been in 2021. And so places where we have a material chocolate business, like in Europe, are going to see, in terms of inflation, a little bit less. But I just mentioned Dairy in one of the previous questions, and there might be further pressures coming up. So hopefully, I gave you a little bit of color on how we see costs evolving by region and by countries a bit.

就通膨而言，目前通膨最嚴重的地區主要是那些貨幣對美元貶值的國家，例如俄羅斯和巴西。但整體而言，放眼全球，就通膨壓力而言，雖然某些地區確實存在峰值，但整體上較為均衡。某些大宗商品受到的影響比其他商品更大。例如，可可的價格在2022年比2021年略低。因此，像歐洲這樣巧克力產業較發達的地區，其通膨壓力也會相對較小。但我剛才在回答問題時提到了乳製品，未來可能還會出現進一步的壓力。希望我剛才的分析能讓您對各地區和各國的成本變化趨勢有所了解。

Yes. No, that's super helpful. And just to come back to North America, obviously, it's unfortunate the persistent problems you're seeing in North America. I guess my question is -- they seem to be surprising you. If we look at the Nielsen data, kind of back to Rob Moskow's question, demand is there. And it looks like you're actually inducing demand because the promotional levels remain elevated. They're growing year-on-year. So it looks like you got a sales force, on one side of your organization, pushing demand and you've got a supply chain on the other side saying, "Wait, we can't fill demand," and there seems to be this disconnect between the 2 organizations. So 2 questions. One, is it fair? And two, what's wrong to cause that disconnect, if so?

是的。這真的很有幫助。回到北美，很顯然，你們在北美遇到的這些持續性問題令人遺憾。我想問的是──這些問題似乎讓你們感到驚訝。如果我們看一下尼爾森的數據，就像羅布·莫斯科提出的問題一樣，需求是存在的。而且看起來你們其實是在刺激需求，因為促銷力道一直很高，而且還在逐年成長。所以看起來你們的銷售團隊在推動需求，而供應鏈卻在說：“等等，我們無法滿足需求”，這兩個部門之間似乎存在脫節。所以我有兩個問題。第一，這樣公平嗎？第二，如果有這種脫節，是什麼原因造成的？

I would say that, for sure, in the beginning of the inflation or the supply chain disruption, which we started to see in August, September of '21, there was clearly a disconnect because our sales teams saw high demand and the supply chain suddenly started to realize that transportation was difficult and that there was a number of other issues that were going on, a little bit of capacity and so on, labor shortages in our third-parties.

我可以肯定地說，在通貨膨脹或供應鏈中斷的初期，也就是我們在 2021 年 8 月、9 月開始看到的情況，顯然存在脫節，因為我們的銷售團隊看到了高需求，而供應鏈突然開始意識到運輸困難，並且還存在許多其他問題，例如產能不足等等，以及我們第三方勞動力短缺。

And so yes, it took us probably a few months before we realized we need to reset here. Since then, the teams have been working quite closely, trying to link up whatever demand generation that we have with the supply capacity that we have. And so I'm expecting that in the coming months, we see that starting to work a lot better for us. So I would say it's fair, but we've gotten under that now, and we've solved the problem. And so going forward, we should be okay. Not sure if there was a second part to the question. That was it, I believe?

是的，我們大概花了幾個月才意識到需要調整。從那時起，團隊就一直在緊密合作，努力將現有需求與現有供應能力對接起來。所以我預計在接下來的幾個月裡，情況會好轉很多。所以我覺得這很公平，但我們現在已經克服了困難，解決了這個問題。因此，展望未來，我們應該沒問題了。我不確定這個問題是否還有第二部分。我想應該就這些了吧？

Well, yes, no, that's good. We've covered it all. We're connecting again later. So I'll follow up later, too.

嗯，是的，很好。我們已經討論完了。我們稍後會再聯絡。所以我稍後也會跟進。

And we'll take our next question from Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

接下來，我們將回答來自傑富瑞集團的羅伯·迪克森提出的問題。

Great. Just have one question, just with respect to the top line, kind of circling back to all the commentary so far through Q&A. I know previously, it sounds like you were looking for, let's call it, maybe 6% to 7% pricing this year. That's implemented early part of January, North America. And then to David Palmer's question, it sounds like pricing in most EMs would kind of remain at a similar level relative to 2021 while, at the same time, there should be some improved pricing, it sounds like, coming through in Europe.

好的。我還有一個問題，是關於前面提到的，也算是回顧一下之前問答環節的內容。我知道之前你們似乎希望今年的價格能降幅在6%到7%之間。北美地區已經在1月初開始實施了這項政策。至於David Palmer的問題，聽起來大多數新興市場的價格會與2021年基本持平，而歐洲的價格似乎會有所改善。

So if I square all that, is it fair to say that maybe pricing for the year would -- it sounds like it's at least 3%. Maybe it could be a little bit higher. Because I'm obviously just trying to get to some gauge as to what's a rational, kind of organic growth forecast for the year, just kind of outside of just your traditional 3%-plus kind of long-term guidance. That's all.

所以，如果我把所有這些因素綜合起來考慮，是不是可以這樣說：今年的定價──聽起來至少3%。也許還會更高一些。因為我顯然只是想對今年合理的、自然成長的預測做一個大致的衡量，而不是僅限於傳統的3%以上的長期成長預期。就這些。

Thank you for the question. We are usually not giving the breakdown of pricing and volume, and we try to move away to keep some sort of flexibility. But what I would tell you is that, as I said in the prepared remarks, I see the 3%-plus has a plus in it as a floor. And at this point in time, we really want to see how Q1 plays out with some price increases and Omicron before we commit to a higher number. But hopefully, we see Q1 coming in, in line with our internal expectations, and we will be in a position to raise the guidance on top line potentially after we see Q1 and we have Q1 under the belt. Hopefully, that's answering some of your questions.

感謝您的提問。我們通常不會公佈具體的定價和銷售明細，盡量避免透露這些信息，以保持一定的靈活性。但正如我在事先準備好的發言稿中所說，我認為3%以上的成長幅度是底線。目前，我們希望先觀察第一季在價格上漲和Omicron計畫實施後的實際表現，然後再確定更高的目標數字。我們希望第一季的業績能夠符合內部預期，並在第一季結束後，根據實際情況上調營收預期。希望以上解答能幫助您。

Yes, fair enough. I guess I'll try another one. Just in terms of the cash balance, you're kind of ending '21 with a decent amount of cash. Leverage looks to be now a bit sub-3x, and it sounds like gum business is still under a strategic review. So kind of outside of the $2 billion potential in share repo, how are you thinking about just kind of general capital allocation in terms of M&A? Like, do you feel as if, as you get through '21, it's about stabilizing and tucking in Chipita and working on distribution opportunities with acquisitions already done? Or are you still pushing forward in terms of health and wellness premium, et cetera? That's all.

好的，沒問題。我想我再試試別的辦法。就現金餘額而言，你們2021年底的現金儲備相當可觀。槓桿率現在似乎低於3倍，而且口香糖業務聽起來仍在進行策略評估。那麼，除了潛在的20億美元股票回購計畫之外，你們是如何考慮併購方面的整體資本配置的呢？例如，你們是否覺得，在2021年，重點是穩定局面，整合Chipita，並利用已完成的收購來拓展分銷管道？還是你們仍在推動健康和保健類高端產品等業務？就這些。

Look, the cash position at the end and the net debt position at the end of 2021 is obviously fairly good because we have done quite a bit of work all around. And I'm very happy with leverage being at 2.7x. Having said that, in January, we have just got a $2 billion check almost for Chipita. So bear that in mind. In terms of capital structure, we will continue generating cash flow, and I was very happy with the quality of the cash that came in into 2021. So I feel the first element, which is foundation of our capital structure, is there. And then clearly, at this point in time, if we had an acquisition that is similar to Give & Go or Chipita, et cetera, we will still be able to fund it. We obviously have our coffee stakes. And we have all it takes, including potentially switching off share buybacks to be able to phase an acquisition of the level that Give & Go and Chipita had been.

你看，截至2021年底，我們的現金狀況和淨債務狀況顯然相當不錯，因為我們在各方面都做了很多工作。我對2.7倍的槓桿率非常滿意。話雖如此，今年1月我們剛收到一筆近20億美元的款項，用於收購Chipita。所以請記住這一點。就資本結構而言，我們將繼續產生現金流，我對2021年流入的現金品質非常滿意。因此，我認為我們資本結構的第一個要素──基礎──已經具備。顯然，在目前這個階段，如果我們進行類似收購Give & Go或Chipita等公司，我們仍然有能力為其提供資金。我們顯然持有咖啡業的股份。我們擁有所有必要的條件，包括可能停止股票回購，以便分階段完成像收購Give & Go和Chipita那樣規模的收購。

And in the interest of time, I will now turn the program back to Dirk Van de Put for any closing remarks.

為了節省時間，我現在將節目交還給德克·范德普特，請他作總結發言。

Thank you. Well, in closing, we feel good about our 2021 performance across our key metrics, of course, including the top line growth. We see good volume, profitability was good and the cash generation was excellent. I want to reiterate that we are especially proud of our people, I believe the very best in the CPG industry. And by continuing to stay close to our consumers, we are confident that we have a bright future ahead. We remain focused on our consumer-centric growth strategy, that will not change. We will continue to improve our execution, and we will continue to invest and increasing our investment in our brands, in our talent and our capabilities.

謝謝。最後，我們對2021年各項關鍵指標的業績感到滿意，當然也包括營收成長。銷售良好，獲利能力出色，現金流也十分充裕。我想再次強調，我們為我們的員工感到無比自豪，我相信他們是消費品行業中最優秀的人才。透過持續與消費者保持緊密聯繫，我們有信心擁有光明的未來。我們將繼續專注於以消費者為中心的成長策略，這一點不會改變。我們將持續提升執行力，並持續增加對品牌、人才和能力的投入。

As I look ahead towards '22, we expect continued pockets of volatility related to COVID or the inflation or the supply chain challenges. We continue to risk-adjust our plans to ensure that we can successfully navigate these periodic disruptions and deliver on our targets. So we enter 2022 with a good momentum in our categories and the vast majority of our geographies. Our global and local brands, as I explained, are on solid footing with strong levels of investment. We continue to augment the portfolio with growth accretive snacking assets, and we are excited about the opportunities to advance multi-category strength in our key markets. We are going to continue to expand distribution in emerging markets, and we're going to further accelerate close-in adjacencies and our high-growth segments.

展望2022年，我們預期與新冠疫情、通貨膨脹或供應鏈挑戰相關的波動仍將持續。我們將繼續調整計劃，以確保能夠成功應對這些週期性幹擾，並實現我們的目標。因此，我們帶著良好的發展動能進入2022年，涵蓋了各個品類和絕大多數地區。正如我之前所述，我們的全球和本地品牌都擁有穩固的基礎和充足的投資。我們將繼續透過增加能夠提升成長的零食資產來豐富產品組合，並對在關鍵市場提升多品類實力的機會感到興奮。我們將持續拓展新興市場的分銷管道，並進一步加速鄰近市場和高成長細分市場的發展。

So I thank you for your time and for your investment and see you at the end of Q1.

感謝您抽出寶貴時間並進行投資，我們第一季末再見。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

And this does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與，您可以斷開連接了。