億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

各位來賓，歡迎參加億滋國際2022年第一季財報電話會議。本次電話會議預計持續約1小時，包括億滋管理階層致詞及問答環節。 （操作說明）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把電話交給億滋國際投資者關係副總裁謝普‧鄧拉普先生。請您發言，先生。

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides, which are available on our website.

下午好，感謝各位的到來。今天陪同我的是我們的董事長兼執行長德克·范德普特先生，以及我們的財務長盧卡·扎拉梅拉先生。今天早些時候，我們已發布了新聞稿和演示文稿，您可以在我們的網站上查看。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K, -Q and 8-K filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將就公司績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們目前的判斷。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。有關前瞻性陳述的更多詳情，請參閱我們提交的10-K、10-Q和8-K文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。

As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results. In addition, we provide our year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis unless otherwise noted. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

在今天討論績效時，除非另有說明，我們將使用非GAAP財務指標，這些指標已對GAAP業績中包含的某些項目進行了調整。此外，除非另有說明，我們將以固定匯率為基礎提供年增率資料。您可以在獲利報告和簡報結尾找到對應的GAAP指標以及GAAP與非GAAP指標的調節表。

In today's call, Dirk will provide a business and strategy update, then Luca will take you through our financial results and outlook. We will close with Q&A.

在今天的電話會議中，Dirk 將介紹業務和策略的最新進展，然後 Luca 將為大家講解我們的財務表現和展望。最後我們將進行問答環節。

Before turning it over to Dirk, a reminder that we have an investor update on May 10, and that will begin 9:00 Eastern, 8:00 Central, where Dirk, Luca and other senior leaders will talk more about the evolution of our strategy. More details will be on our IR website soon. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dirk.

在將發言權交給德克之前，提醒大家我們將於5月10日舉行投資者更新會議，會議將於美國東部時間上午9點/中部時間上午8點開始。屆時，德克、盧卡和其他高階主管將詳細討論我們策略的演變。更多詳情將很快發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上。接下來，我將把電話會議交給德克。

Thank you, Shep, and thanks to everyone for joining the call today. I will start on Slide 4. I am pleased to share that we have delivered an excellent start to the year, with robust volume growth, solid pricing, strong gross profit dollar growth and high cash delivery. Strong demand for snacks fueled broad-based growth all around the world, with the chocolate and biscuit categories continuing to demonstrate resilience. And price elasticity remaining below historical levels.

謝謝Shep，也謝謝各位今天參加電話會議。我將從第四張投影片開始。我很高興地告訴大家，我們今年開局良好，銷售強勁成長，定價穩健，毛利成長顯著，現金流也十分充裕。全球對零食的強勁需求推動了整體成長，其中巧克力和餅乾品類繼續展現出韌性。同時，價格彈性仍低於歷史水準。

We also continue to effectively navigate a dynamic environment, characterized by global input cost inflation as well as lingering disruptions in the supply chain, labor and transportation. Throughout the quarter, we succeeded in mitigating these challenges through ongoing cost discipline and strategic pricing actions. At the same time, we continue to invest to support our brands, our distribution, our capabilities and acquisitions. We remain confident that the strength of our brands, our proven strategy and our continued investment position us well to deliver attractive, sustainable growth for the remainder of 2022 and beyond.

我們持續有效地應對著瞬息萬變的市場環境，該環境的特徵是全球投入成本上漲以及供應鏈、勞動力和運輸方面持續存在的諸多問題。本季度，我們透過持續的成本控制和策略性定價措施，成功緩解了這些挑戰。同時，我們繼續加大投資，以支持我們的品牌、分銷管道、業務能力和收購項目。我們堅信，憑藉我們強大的品牌實力、行之有效的策略以及持續的投資，我們有能力在2022年剩餘時間及以後實現可持續的、具有吸引力的成長。

It is especially important to note that we remain extremely confident in our people the very best in the CPG industry. Each and every day, our makers and bakers around the world remain focused on delivering high-quality, great-tasting snacks to enrich the lives of consumers. No matter how the external environment shifts from one quarter to the next, are diverse and dedicated teams continue to deliver the brands our consumers love.

尤其值得一提的是，我們對公司員工充滿信心，他們是消費品產業最優秀的人才。每一天，我們遍佈全球的食品生產者和烘焙師都專注於提供高品質、美味的零食，以豐富消費者的生活。無論外部環境如何變化，我們多元化且敬業的團隊始終致力於為消費者提供他們喜愛的品牌產品。

Turning to Slide 5. You can see that our strategy is continuing to drive a virtuous cycle. The strength of our brands, our continuously increasing investments and significant pricing actions are sustaining top line momentum and solid profitability and position us well for another strong year in 2022. Our first quarter results show that we are off to a strong start. We grew revenue this quarter by 8.6%. We delivered gross profit growth of 9.9% due to higher pricing and robust volume. Our A&C investments have increased high single digits, and we gained our health share across half of our revenue base.

請看幻燈片5。您可以看到，我們的策略正在持續推動良性循環。我們強大的品牌實力、不斷增加的投資以及重要的價格策略，都維持了營收成長動能和穩健的獲利能力，並為我們2022年的又一個強勁年份奠定了堅實的基礎。我們第一季的業績表明，我們開局良好。本季營收成長了8.6%。由於價格上漲和銷量強勁，我們的毛利成長了9.9%。我們的廣告和廣告投資實現了接近兩位數的成長，並且我們在半數以上的營收基礎上提升了醫療保健業務的市場份額。

We increased operating income by 13.5% and delivered $1 billion in free cash flow. We view these results as a healthy indicator of our ability to continue to deliver on our long-term growth algorithm.

我們的營業收入成長了13.5%，並實現了10億美元的自由現金流。我們認為這些業績有力地顯示我們有能力繼續實現長期成長目標。

As you can see on Slide 6, we are now averaging a 4.7% quarterly revenue growth rate since 2019. We feel good about this strong and consistent track record. In the second half of 2018, we shifted our paradigm on how to generate elevated growth by focusing on gross profit dollar growth, local first commercial execution, a virtuous cycle of always increasing investments and a new approach to incentives. We are confident that this approach will continue to consistently deliver attractive growth. We also believe this performance demonstrates not only the strength of our execution, but the attractiveness and durability of our core categories of chocolate and biscuit.

如您在投影片6中所見，自2019年以來，我們目前的季度平均營收成長率為4.7%。我們對這強勁且穩定的業績記錄感到非常滿意。 2018年下半年，我們調整了成長策略，更加重視毛利成長、優先在本地市場開展商業活動、持續增加投資以形成良性循環，並採用了新的激勵機制。我們相信，這項策略將繼續帶來可觀的成長。同時，我們也認為，這項業績不僅反映了我們強大的執行力，也展現了我們巧克力和餅乾這兩大核心品類的吸引力和持久性。

Against that backdrop, I'm now on Slide 7, we are excited to provide some additional details on our recently announced acquisition of Ricolino, the #1 sugar confectionery and #4 chocolate player in our priority market of Mexico. This strategic acquisition will enable us to double our size in Mexico, a key priority market for us and Latin America's second largest market after Brazil. Ricolino has a broad portfolio of iconic, widely loved chocolate and candy brands include Ricolino, Vero, La Corona and Coronado.

在此背景下，現在我來到第七張幻燈片，我們很高興能提供更多關於我們近期宣布收購Ricolino的細節。 Ricolino是我們在墨西哥重點市場排名第一的糖果品牌和排名第四的巧克力品牌。此次策略收購將使我們在墨西哥的規模翻倍。墨西哥是我們的重要優先市場，也是拉丁美洲僅次於巴西的第二大市場。 Ricolino旗下擁有許多標誌性的、廣受歡迎的巧克力和糖果品牌，包括Ricolino、Vero、La Corona和Coronado。

In addition to the taste-of-the-nation brands, the organization's robust route-to-market infrastructure, which has more than 2,100 DSD routes that serve more than 440,000 traditional trade outlets, will enable us to rapidly expand our share in biscuits and chocolate. We also will benefit from 4 new manufacturing facilities with strong production capabilities. We expect this acquisition to rapidly drive value. Ricolino has been growing at an 8% CAGR with solid profitability over the past 5 years and currently delivers more than $500 million in net revenue. Its high strategic fit transforms our business with now 75% of revenues coming from core snacking categories and great opportunities for both revenue and cost synergies.

除了全國知名的知名品牌外，公司強大的市場通路基礎設施（擁有超過2100條直銷配送路線，覆蓋超過44萬個傳統零售網點）將助力我們迅速擴大在餅乾和巧克力領域的市場份額。此外，我們還將受惠於4家擁有強大生產能力的新工廠。我們預期此次收購將迅速提升公司價值。 Ricolino在過去五年中維持了8%的複合年增長率和穩健的獲利能力，目前淨收入超過5億美元。此次收購與我們高度契合，將使我們的業務轉型升級，目前我們75%的收入來自核心零食品類，並帶來巨大的收入和成本協同效應。

Like other companies, as shown on Slide 8, we are experiencing a dynamic operating environment driven by global cost inflation and supply chain volatility. We condemn the war in Ukraine, which is not only causing great human suffering, but adds to an already very difficult cost and supply chain environment. Let's take a closer look at each of these dynamics and the steps we are taking to address them.

如幻燈片8所示，與其他公司一樣，我們正面臨著由全球成本上漲和供應鏈波動所驅動的動態經營環境。我們譴責烏克蘭戰爭，這場戰爭不僅造成了巨大的傷亡，也加劇了本已十分嚴峻的成本和供應鏈環境。接下來，我們將詳細分析這些動態因素以及我們為應對這些因素所採取的措施。

First, we continue to face elevated input cost inflation, especially in the areas of energy, transportation, packaging, wheat, dairy and edible oils. To offset these challenges, we recently announced further pricing actions across key markets. Additionally, our commodity costs are about 85% hedged for the year and near fully hedged in key areas. We are also continuing to accelerate productivity and throughput initiatives.

首先，我們持續面臨高企的投入成本通膨，尤其是在能源、運輸、包裝、小麥、乳製品和食用油等領域。為因應這些挑戰，我們近期宣佈在主要市場採取進一步的價格調整措施。此外，我們今年的商品成本已對沖約85%，在關鍵領域已接近完全避險。我們也持續加快提高生產效率和產能的腳步。

Second, we continue to manage through volatility in the supply chain, especially in the U.S., due to labor shortages at third parties as well as a continuing gap between demand and supply of trucking capacity and containers. To offset these challenges, we are continuing to improve our manufacturing and warehouse capacity, prioritizing key SKUs and implementing new measures to support employee retention.

其次，由於第三方勞動力短缺以及卡車運力和貨櫃供需持續存在缺口，我們仍在努力應對供應鏈的波動，尤其是在美國。為了應對這些挑戰，我們持續提升生產和倉儲能力，優先保障關鍵產品，並實施新的措施以留住員工。

And third, we are working through numerous challenges related to the ongoing war in Ukraine. I would now like to spend a few minutes addressing our actions to care for and protect our people, as well as our operations in the region. First and foremost, our thoughts are with the people of Ukraine and all those around the world with family, friends and loved ones who have been impacted. The current situation is devastating, and we condemn this senseless violence.

第三，我們正在努力應對與烏克蘭持續戰爭相關的諸多挑戰。現在，我想花幾分鐘時間談談我們為關懷和保護人民所採取的行動，以及我們在該地區的行動。首先，我們與烏克蘭人民以及世界各地所有受戰爭影響的人們同在。當前的局勢令人痛心，我們譴責這種毫無意義的暴力行為。

We have taken a number of important steps to protect our colleagues, including strong financial support, border crossing assistance and help with finding housing. As part of these steps, we are continuing to pay our employees in Ukraine. Additionally, we are stepping up our commitment to relief efforts, dedicating so far 10 million to humanitarian support and food security. This includes donations to international and local aid organizations focused on supporting all people in Ukraine, but also with a specific focus on the communities where we have plans. On top of financial donations, our teams are providing on-the-ground help. For instance, we have helped transfer more than 100 children from Ukraine to Turkey, secured diesel generators to help provide power to critical public facilities and we are making food available in Ukraine, including product donations and working with distributors.

我們已採取多項重要措施保護我們的同事，包括提供強有力的財務支持、協助過境和尋找住房。作為這些措施的一部分，我們將繼續向在烏克蘭的員工支付工資。此外，我們正在加大對救援工作的投入，迄今已投入1,000萬美元用於人道援助和糧食安全。這包括向致力於幫助烏克蘭所有民眾的國際和當地援助組織捐款，同時也專注於我們已製定計劃的社區。除了資金捐贈外，我們的團隊還在當地提供實際援助。例如，我們已幫助100多名兒童從烏克蘭轉移到土耳其，採購了柴油發電機以幫助關鍵公共設施供電，我們正在烏克蘭提供食品，包括捐贈產品和與分銷商合作。

Our 2 manufacturing operations in Ukraine have been shut down since the war began. Unfortunately, our site in Trostyanets has suffered significant damage due to the substantial military action in the area. Our site in Vyshhorod also remains closed. Thankfully, none of our employees were injured at either facilities. It is too early to provide you with potential next steps for the facilities, but we will work to make these facilities operational when the local situation allows. In terms of our business in Russia, as a food company, we have scaled back all nonessential activities, including stopping all new capital investments, any planned product launches and line extensions, commercial sponsorships and advertising. We are focused on local production of shelf-stable packaged snacks that are staples in people's daily lives. We also continue to provide support to our colleagues.

自戰爭爆發以來，我們在烏克蘭的兩家生產工廠一直處於關閉狀態。不幸的是，由於該地區的大規模軍事行動，我們在特羅斯蒂亞涅茨的工廠遭受了嚴重破壞。我們在維什霍羅德的工廠也仍然關閉。值得慶幸的是，我們兩家工廠的員工都沒有受傷。目前尚無法就工廠的後續計劃提供具體方案，但我們將努力在當地局勢允許的情況下盡快恢復工廠的運作。就我們在俄羅斯的業務而言，作為一家食品公司，我們已縮減所有非必要活動，包括停止所有新的資本投資、任何計劃中的產品發布和產品線擴展、商業贊助和廣告活動。我們專注於在當地生產人們日常生活中不可或缺的常溫包裝零食。我們也將繼續為我們的同事提供支援。

With that, I will hand over to Luca for more details on our financials.

接下來，我會把麥克風交給盧卡，讓他詳細介紹我們的財務狀況。

Thank you, Dirk, and good afternoon. Our first quarter performance was strong from top to bottom to cash flow. We delivered revenue growth of 8.6%, with nearly 4 points of that growth coming from volume mix. Emerging markets continue to show great strength, posting an increase of more than 16%, with strengths across all our major business units. Importantly, volume mix dropped nearly 10 points of this growth, with notable performances from Brazil, India, China and Mexico. Developed markets grew 4.2% for the first quarter, with strength in both Europe and North America as demand remains strong. As for emerging market also, our developed market volume mix was positive, but pricing drove a good portion of that growth.

謝謝Dirk，下午好。我們第一季的業績表現強勁，從營收到現金流都十分出色。我們實現了8.6%的營收成長，其中近4個百分點的成長來自銷售成長。新興市場持續保持強勁勢頭，營收成長超過16%，所有主要業務部門均表現突出。值得注意的是，銷售成長貢獻了近10個百分點，其中巴西、印度、中國和墨西哥的表現尤其突出。已開發市場第一季成長4.2%，歐洲及北美市場表現強勁，需求依然強勁。新興市場方面，已開發市場的銷售成長也為正，但價格因素推動了大部分成長。

Turning to our portfolio performance on Slide 11. Chocolate and biscuits continue to demonstrate strong growth and drive our business. Gum and candy also increased significantly as many areas are at or above prepandemic levels. Biscuits grew 6.7% for the quarter, with more than 2 points coming from volume mix. Similarly to Q4, emerging markets were a significant engine of growth in this category. Brazil, Mexico, India, Southeast Asia all grew double digit, while China posted high single-digit growth. Oreo, Chips Ahoy!, LU and [Tate's] are among those brands that delivered double-digit increases. Chocolate grew more than 8% for the quarter, with increases in both developed and emerging markets. Both global and local brands grew well, including Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Toblerone, Lacta and Bis. Gum and candy continued to show improvement with growth of 27% related to mobility increases. China, Brazil and Mexico were among some of the larger gum businesses posting strong performances.

請參閱第11頁投影片，了解我們的投資組合表現。巧克力和餅乾繼續保持強勁成長，並推動了我們的業務發展。口香糖和糖果的銷量也顯著增長，許多地區的銷量已達到或超過疫情前水準。餅乾本季成長6.7%，其中超過2個百分點的成長來自銷量成長。與第四季類似，新興市場是該品類成長的重要引擎。巴西、墨西哥、印度和東南亞均實現了兩位數成長，而中國則實現了接近兩位數的成長。奧利奧、趣多多、LU和泰特巧克力等品牌均實現了兩位數成長。巧克力本季成長超過8%，已開發市場和新興市場均成長。全球品牌和本土品牌都表現良好，包括吉百利牛奶巧克力、妙卡、瑞士三角巧克力、樂達和比斯巧克力。口香糖和糖果的銷量持續成長，增幅達27%，這與出行量的增加密切相關。中國、巴西和墨西哥等大型口香糖市場表現強勁。

Now let's review our market share performance on Slide 12. We held or gained share in approximately 50% of our revenue base during the quarter, with approximately 25 points of headwind due to the inventory situation in the U.S. and related out of stock. Our chocolate category continued to do well, with 70% of our revenue base holding or gaining share. While our biscuit category held or gained share in 40% of our revenue base, the impact driven by lower inventory levels in North America following the Q3 strike and continued labor shortages at third-party manufacturers is worth 40 points of headwind. We expect these dynamics to improve as we move into the second half of the year. A few of the more notable areas of share gains in Q1 include China, India, Brazil, Mexico, U.K. and France Biscuit; U.K., Brazil and South Africa chocolate; and China gum. As we move into Q2, we expect our chocolate share to improve in several key markets in Europe and EMEA due to Easter timing where our portfolio is especially strong.

現在讓我們回顧一下第12頁幻燈片中的市佔率表現。本季度，我們在約50%的收入來源中保持或提升了市場份額，但由於美國庫存狀況及相關缺貨問題，約有25個百分點的市場份額受到不利影響。我們的巧克力品類持續表現良好，70%的收入來源市佔率維持或提升。雖然我們的餅乾類別在40%的收入來源中保持或提升了市場份額，但由於第三季罷工後北美庫存水準下降以及第三方製造商持續的勞動力短缺，造成了40個百分點的不利影響。我們預計隨著下半年的到來，這些情況將會有所改善。第一季市佔率提升較為顯著的幾個領域包括：中國、印度、巴西、墨西哥、英國和法國的餅乾；英國、巴西和南非的巧克力；以及中國的口香糖。進入第二季度，我們預計由於復活節臨近，我們在歐洲和歐洲、中東及非洲（EMEA）幾個主要市場的巧克力市場份額將有所提升，而我們的產品組合在這些市場表現尤為強勁。

Now turning to Page 13. For the quarter, profitability was strong due to higher pricing, strong volume leverage and the benefit of hedges related to currency and commodities.

現在翻到第 13 頁。本季獲利能力強勁，這得益於更高的定價、強大的銷售槓桿以及與貨幣和商品相關的對沖收益。

Turning to regional performance on Slide 14. Europe grew 4.9% during the quarter, supported by great execution, a strong Easter performance and continued recovery in the convenience away-from-home and travel retail channels. Our results were driven by 3.4 points of volume growth with strong increases in many markets, including the U.K. as well as Central and Eastern Europe. In chocolate, we delivered our best Easter ever with strong sell-in and sellout for the U.K. and Germany. Biscuits also delivered strong mid-single-digit growth. OI dollar growth for the quarter was more than 10%, driven by continued volume leverage, pricing and strong cost control as well as favorable commodity ForEx hedges.

請參閱第14頁投影片，以了解區域績效。歐洲本季成長4.9%，這得益於出色的執行力、強勁的復活節銷售業績以及便利商店、非居家消費通路和旅遊零售通路的持續復甦。我們的業績主要由銷售成長3.4個百分點推動，其中英國以及中歐和東歐等多個市場均實現了強勁成長。巧克力業務方面，我們在英國和德國的復活節銷售業績創歷史新高，進貨量和售罄率均表現強勁。餅乾業務也實現了強勁的中位數成長。本季營業額（美元）成長超過10%，這主要得益於持續的銷售槓桿效應、定價策略和有效的成本控制，以及有利的大宗商品外匯對沖。

North America grew 7.7% in Q1, driven by higher pricing in biscuits as well as double-digit gum and candy growth. Volume mix was slightly positive, despite lower service levels related to third-party labor constraints. North America OI increased by 13.6% during the quarter due to higher pricing. We announced an additional mid-single-digit pricing increase in the U.S. that will become effective early May. EMEA grew 8.9% for the quarter with strong volume growth of 6.4%, showing continued strength across much of the region. India grew double digits for the quarter and continues to execute well and reinvest for the future. We continue to extend our leadership position in chocolate while the growth of our biscuit business continues to outpace larger competitors in the region.

北美地區第一季成長7.7%，主要得益於餅乾價格上漲以及口香糖和糖果兩位數的成長。儘管受第三方勞動力限制導致服務水準下降的影響，銷售量組成仍略有改善。由於價格上漲，北美地區的營業收入在本季成長了13.6%。我們宣布將在美國地區再次上調中等個位數的價格，該調整將於5月初生效。歐洲、中東和非洲地區（EMEA）本季成長8.9%，銷量成長強勁，達到6.4%，顯示該地區大部分地區持續保持強勁勢頭。印度市場本季實現了兩位數成長，並持續保持良好的營運狀態，同時持續進行未來再投資。我們繼續鞏固在巧克力領域的領先地位，而餅乾業務的成長速度也持續超過該地區規模更大的競爭對手。

China grew high single digits for the quarter, driven by continued share and gains in both biscuits and gum, despite several challenges due to COVID restrictions. Southeast Asia delivered high single-digit growth, with strength in biscuit, chocolate and beverages. EMEA increased OI dollars by 5.8% for the quarter as volume-driven profit was partially offset by commodities and transportation inflation. Latin America grew more than 25% for the quarter, with strong growth across all categories, driven by both strong pricing and volume mix gains. Brazil, Mexico and our Western Andean business unit all posted double-digit increases this quarter.

儘管受到新冠疫情限制措施帶來的諸多挑戰，中國市場本季仍實現了接近兩位數的成長，這主要得益於餅乾和口香糖市場份額的持續成長。東南亞市場也實現了接近兩位數的成長，其中餅乾、巧克力和飲料業務表現強勁。歐洲、中東和非洲地區（EMEA）本季營業收入成長5.8%，銷售成長帶來的利潤被大宗商品和運輸成本的上漲部分抵銷。拉丁美洲本季成長超過25%，所有品類均實現強勁成長，這主要得益於價格的上漲和銷售結構的變化。巴西、墨西哥以及我們的西安第斯業務部門本季均實現了兩位數的成長。

Adjusted OI dollars for Latin America increased more than 30% for the quarter. These increases were driven by broad-based volume growth across core snacking categories, effective pricing through RGM actions and the mix impact of higher gum and candy sales.

經調整後，拉丁美洲的營業收入本季成長超過30%。這一成長主要得益於核心零食品類的銷售全面成長、零售行銷策略帶來的有效定價以及口香糖和糖果銷售成長所帶來的產品組合效應。

Moving to EPS. Q1 EPS grew 13.9% at constant currency. This growth was primarily driven by top line-driven operating gains.

接下來看每股盈餘（EPS）。第一季每股收益以固定匯率計算成長了13.9%。這一增長主要得益於營收成長帶來的營運收益。

Turning to free cash flow and capital return on Slide 16. We delivered Q1 free cash flow of $1 billion, driven by strong operating results and further improvements in our cash conversion cycle. We also returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

請參閱第16頁投影片，以了解自由現金流和資本回報。第一季度，我們實現了10億美元的自由現金流，這主要得益於強勁的經營業績和現金週轉週期的進一步改善。此外，我們也以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還了13億美元。

Let me make a few comments with respect to the Ukraine. We stopped all business in Ukraine as the war began, including our 2 plants in the country that produce products for both Ukraine and broader Europe. In total, this represents about $320 million in revenues on a yearly basis. As a result of this business stoppage, we expect asset write-offs and onetime costs of approximately $143 million, which will be excluded from our adjusted results. For the remainder of 2022, we expect about $200 million in revenue headwinds from the loss of revenue in Ukraine as well as losses related to finished goods that our Ukraine plant produce for other countries within Europe, where we do not have supply alternative yet. The lost revenue is expected to translate into $0.03 lower EPS.

關於烏克蘭，我想做幾點說明。戰爭爆發後，我們停止了在烏克蘭的所有業務，包括我們在該國的兩家工廠，這兩家工廠的產品銷往烏克蘭和歐洲其他地區。這相當於每年約3.2億美元的收入損失。由於業務中斷，我們預計將產生約1.43億美元的資產減損和一次性成本，這些成本將從我們的調整後績效中剔除。在2022年剩餘時間裡，我們預計將因烏克蘭業務收入損失以及烏克蘭工廠為歐洲其他國家生產的成品（在這些國家我們目前還沒有替代供應商）造成的損失，而導致約2億美元的收入下滑。預計收入損失將導致每股收益下降0.03美元。

Now let me provide some color on our revised 2022 outlook on Slide 19. We now expect 4%-plus top line growth. This factors in the $200 million or roughly 1 point of negative impact currently anticipated from the Ukraine war, in addition to our expectations that we will return to more historical levels of elasticity later this year. We continue to expect pricing to be a larger driver of top line growth given its impact in Q1, and we are also announcing price increases across a number of markets for the rest of the year tied to inflation. We now expect input cost inflation in the low double-digit range for 2022 versus our prior view of approximately 8%, despite our coverage is approaching 90% for the year. The revised view of inflation reflects the war in the Ukraine and the related step-up in cost pressure to our commodity basket, including energy, wheat, oil and packaging.

現在，讓我詳細解釋一下投影片19中我們對2022年展望的修訂。我們現在預計營收成長將超過4%。這項預測考慮了烏克蘭戰爭目前預計帶來的2億美元（約1個百分點）的負面影響，以及我們預期今年稍後將恢復到更接近歷史水準的彈性。鑑於價格在第一季的影響，我們仍然預計價格將成為營收成長的主要驅動力，我們也將宣佈在今年剩餘時間內，多個市場的價格將根據通膨情況上調。儘管我們今年的業務覆蓋率已接近90%，但我們現在預計2022年投入成本通膨率將處於兩位數低位，低於我們先前約8%的預期。通膨預期的修訂反映了烏克蘭戰爭以及由此導致的能源、小麥、石油和包裝等大宗商品成本壓力的增加。

As I said, we also expect additional pricing in a number of markets connected to this inflation, and these actions could cause an increase in elasticity versus what we are seeing today. As a result, we have planned accordingly. As we gave you guidance for 2022, we had some headroom. So we still feel we have an opportunity to hit high single-digit EPS. But the situation is very volatile. And given these dynamics, we believe it is prudent to call a range of EPS growth between mid-single to high single digit. This also factors in ongoing investment to support our brands and working media increases that, in some cases, might be increased, given good business momentum to protect versus elasticity driven by incremental price increases.

正如我之前所說，我們預期一些市場會因通膨而出現額外定價，這些措施可能會導致價格彈性較目前上升。因此，我們已據此制定了相應的計劃。正如我們之前對2022年的業績指引，我們留有一定的調整空間。所以我們仍然認為有機會實現接近兩位數的每股盈餘成長。但目前形勢非常不穩定。鑑於這些動態因素，我們認為謹慎起見，將每股盈餘成長預期設定在個位數中段至接近兩位數之間是比較穩健的。這其中也考慮到了我們為支持品牌營運而進行的持續投資，以及在某些情況下，如果業務發展勢頭良好，為了應對因價格小幅上漲而導致的價格彈性上升，我們可能會增加媒體投入。

Our outlook also now factors in $0.17 of headwind related to ForEx impact. $0.06 of this amount was included in our first quarter results. With respect to free cash flow, our view is unchanged as we continue to expect another year of $3 billion-plus.

我們的展望目前已將外匯影響帶來的0.17美元不利因素納入考量。其中0.06美元已計入第一季業績。關於自由現金流，我們的預期不變，仍預計明年將超過30億美元。

With that, let's open the line for questions.

接下來，我們開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from John Baumgartner of Mizuho Securities.

（操作員說明）我們首先來回答瑞穗證券的約翰·鮑姆加特納提出的問題。

Maybe, Dirk, just first starting off, just given the volatility we're seeing globally, wondering if you can offer a bit of a state of the union in terms of any notable call-outs across your geographies and categories.

德克，或許，鑑於我們目前在全球範圍內看到的波動性，我首先想問的是，您能否就您所在地區和類別中任何值得注意的情況，提供一些現狀概述。

Yes. Well, I would say if I would phrase in one phrase, it's a fast-changing and complex environment, but our demand is strong and our momentum is sustained. If I think about the complex environment, we all know about the geopolitical conflict. There's still some pockets of COVID, particularly in China at the moment, but also Southeast Asia. We are seeing absolutely record inflation. And the supply chain disruption is still there. So probably one of the more difficult periods that I have known in my career from an operational perspective.

是的。如果要用一句話概括，那就是：這是一個瞬息萬變且錯綜複雜的環境，但我們的需求強勁，發展勢頭也得以維持。說到複雜的環境，我們都知道地緣政治衝突。目前，新冠疫情仍在一些地區蔓延，尤其是中國，東南亞地區也存在一些疫情。我們正經歷前所未有的通貨膨脹。供應鏈中斷的問題依然存在。因此，從營運角度來看，這可能是我職業生涯中經歷過的最艱難的時期之一。

At the same time, the demand for our product is very strong. And if you look at the quarter, for instance, in chocolate, we grew our revenues by 8.1%, and that was accompanied also by very strong volume growth, which was 5.8%. And then in biscuits, our biggest category, we grew revenue by 6.7% and volume was 2.2%. All regions performed well. They're all growing 5% or more. We continue to invest in our brands. We did not pull back on our investments. So we are going to continue to do that this year because we are in a high pricing environment, and we believe we need to keep supporting our brands. And despite all that, we are delivering very good dollar profit growth. We have double digit -- strong double-digit OI growth, and that was driven by pricing RGM and the volume growth.

同時，市場對我們產品的需求非常強勁。例如，從本季來看，巧克力業務的營收成長了8.1%，銷量也實現了5.8%的強勁成長。餅乾是我們最大的品類，收入成長了6.7%，銷量成長了2.2%。所有地區的業績都表現良好，成長率均達到5%或以上。我們持續投資於旗下品牌，並未減少投資。鑑於當前高定價環境，我們認為有必要繼續支持旗下品牌，因此今年我們將繼續加強投資。儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們的利潤成長依然非常可觀，實現了兩位數的強勁營業收入成長，這主要得益於價格優勢和銷售成長的推動。

If I look to emerging markets and developed markets. Emerging markets continue to be a very strong growth engine for us, double-digit revenue growth, strong double-digit revenue growth in Q1 and also last year, accompanied by 10% volume growth. We have strength in China, India, Brazil. And as you know, we believe we still have plenty of opportunity in these markets as it relates to distribution and white space. Developed markets are solid, although we still have constraints in our U.S. supply chain, but we see it gradually improving. There was a significant step-up in North America. So we had strong growth, step-up in pricing. We are already going to implement at the beginning of May another round of mid-single digit pricing. And as I said, we're making good progress on supply chain and inventory, but there's still a lot of work to do there.

如果我把目光投向新興市場和已開發市場。新興市場仍然是我們強勁的成長引擎，營收實現了兩位數的成長，第一季和去年同期都維持了強勁的兩位數成長，同時銷量也成長了10%。我們在中國、印度和巴西市場實力雄厚。如您所知，我們相信在這些市場，尤其是在分銷和市場空白方面，我們仍然擁有巨大的發展空間。已開發市場表現穩健，儘管我們在美國的供應鏈仍然存在一些限制，但我們看到情況正在逐步改善。北美市場取得了顯著的成長，價格也跟著上調。我們計劃在五月初再次實施中個位數的價格調整。正如我所說，我們在供應鏈和庫存方面取得了良好的進展，但仍有許多工作要做。

Europe for us was also very good, volume-led growth of 5%. We had record Easter results, which you cannot yet see in our market share result because Easter is later this year, but we know it was a very strong Easter. The consumer in Europe, there's a lot of questions about it, is still solid, fully aware about inflationary pressures and so on. The underlying data show that the consumer is still buying our products very strongly.

歐洲市場對我們來說也表現非常出色，銷量成長了5%。我們復活節期間的銷售額創下歷史新高，雖然由於今年的復活節較晚，市場份額數據尚未反映出這一增長，但我們知道今年的復活節銷售非常強勁。歐洲消費者的購買力依然強勁，儘管外界對此有許多疑問，但他們對通膨壓力等因素的了解依然十分充分。基礎數據顯示，消費者對我們產品的購買需求依然強勁。

And then if I summarize it all, I would say, it is a complex environment, but we feel very confident about our future. I think we're in the right categories. We have the right strategy. Our brands are strong. We increased our investment in them every year. We have great people. Our execution is good and we have the right mindset. We will have to work through this near-term inflation, which got worse due to the Ukraine situation and the supply chain headwinds we still have to go through. So we remain focused on what we can control: pricing, in-store execution and very strong cost discipline. I hope that gives you an idea.

總結起來，雖然市場環境複雜，但我們對未來充滿信心。我認為我們選對了品類，戰略正確，品牌實力雄厚，並且每年都在加大投入。我們擁有優秀的人才，執行力強，思考模式也正確。我們必須克服短期通膨的挑戰，烏克蘭局勢加劇了通膨，供應鏈方面也面臨許多阻力。因此，我們將繼續專注於可控因素：定價、門市營運以及嚴格的成本控制。希望這些能讓您有所了解。

Yes. That's great. And just as a follow-up, in terms of the Ricolino acquisition, you touched on it in your remarks a bit, but could you elaborate on the synergy opportunities and any other elements that attracted you to the business that may be less apparent to outsiders? I know Mexico is not a market that's seen a lot of discussion traditionally.

是的，太好了。還有一個後續問題，關於Ricolino的收購，您在發言中略有提及，能否詳細說說協同效應的機會，以及其他一些可能不太為人所知的、吸引您收購這家公司的因素？我知道墨西哥市場歷來都不是人們熱烈討論的話題。

Yes. Well, for us, we consider it as a very high strategic fit for us to become a full snacking player. Mexico is a priority market for us. And our business there is largely in gum and in our meals business. And we are interested in becoming a bigger snacking player in Mexico. Plus the per capita consumption that we have, roughly comparing to our other emerging markets, Mexico has potential for us. And we are very interested into the chocolate market also.

是的。對我們來說，成為一家全面的零食供應商具有極高的策略意義。墨西哥是我們的優先市場。我們在墨西哥的業務主要集中在口香糖和食品領域。我們有意在墨西哥擴大零食市場佔有率。此外，與我們其他新興市場相比，墨西哥的人均消費量也相當可觀，具有很大的發展潛力。我們對巧克力市場也非常感興趣。

Our biscuit business is developing, but could use some acceleration. So Ricolino offers us a strong route to market, combined with an already very strong presence in the market, particularly in confectionery and in chocolate. And that helps us to get to our ambition of about 15% to 20% market share in the biscuits and the chocolate market. And starting from their already strong position and combining that with our existing business, the 2 businesses are about the same size. This will mean for us that we are now 75% a snacking player, which is also very important for us. And what you might not have picked up, but which you can probably expect is that there will be a full integration. So there's a significant opportunity, because of that full integration, for revenue and cost synergies which would be accretive to our growth and margin in Mexico and Latin America.

我們的餅乾業務正在發展，但仍需加速。 Ricolino 為我們提供了一個強大的市場管道，加上其在市場上的強大影響力，尤其是在糖果和巧克力領域，更是舉足輕重。這將有助於我們實現餅乾和巧克力市場15%至20%的市佔率目標。 Ricolino 本身就擁有強大的市場地位，再加上我們現有的業務，兩家公司的規模大致相當。這意味著我們現在75%的業務都集中在零食領域，這對我們來說也至關重要。您可能沒有註意到，但可以預見的是，我們將進行全面整合。因此，全面整合將帶來巨大的收入和成本協同效應，從而提升我們在墨西哥和拉丁美洲的成長和利潤率。

So maybe quickly a bit of the numbers on Ricolino. So about $500 million in net revenue. In the sugar confectionery and chocolate categories, they have about a 15% share in the combined categories, the #1 in confectionery, #4 in chocolate. The 2 categories together are about $3 billion in Mexico, and the growth of those categories are expected to be 7% for the next 5 years. And Ricolino, we expect because of their iconic local brands, we expect them to be above that, about 8%. You probably will not know any of the brands, but they're very known locally. What -- so we're interested in the categories, interested in the brands. But then second, as I already mentioned, their route to market, 2,100-plus DSD routes, reaching 440,000 mom-and-pop stores. That triples, almost quadruples, our route to market in Mexico.

那麼，我們不妨快速看一下Ricolino的一些數據。他們的淨收入約為5億美元。在糖果和巧克力類別中，他們佔據了約15%的市場份額，糖果類別排名第一，巧克力類別排名第四。這兩個品類在墨西哥的總市場規模約為30億美元，預計未來五年將維持7%的成長率。而Ricolino，由於其標誌性的本土品牌，我們預期他們的成長率會高於這個數字，約為8%。您可能對這些品牌並不熟悉，但它們在當地非常有名。所以，我們關注的是品類和品牌。其次，正如我之前提到的，他們的市場管道非常強大，擁有超過2100條直接送貨上門（DSD）路線，覆蓋44萬家夫妻店。這幾乎是我們自身在墨西哥市場通路規模的三倍，甚至接近四倍。

And of course, we have a very strong modern trade presence ourselves where we can help Ricolino become stronger. What we also have to keep in mind is that they have a high-growth U.S. business. They're the leader in confectionery in Hispanic markets in the U.S. And so we believe that there is an opportunity there to significantly increase that business. 10% of their sales are coming from the U.S. Hispanic market. And as you know, the population in the U.S. -- the Hispanic population in the U.S. is growing fast. We're also getting 4 excellent manufacturing facilities, which will help us produce the necessary products for the growth. So I think that gives you an idea, hopefully.

當然，我們自身在現代貿易領域擁有非常強大的影響力，可以幫助Ricolino成長。我們也要記住，Ricolino在美國的業務成長迅猛。他們是美國西班牙裔市場糖果業的領導者。因此，我們相信，這方面存在著顯著提升業務的機會。他們10%的銷售額來自美國西班牙裔市場。而且，正如您所知，美國的西班牙裔人口正在快速增長。此外，我們還將獲得4家一流的生產工廠，這將有助於我們生產滿足成長需求的產品。希望這些資訊能讓您有所了解。

Yes, that's great. And just last one for Luca, if I could. Looking at the guide for 2022, stronger top line despite Ukraine, wider range for EPS. It sounds as though you've embedded a fair amount of uncertainty in the model. I know forecasting now is really tough. But how do we think about the puts and takes and maybe where might the outlook prove conservative in terms of modeling potential downside?

是的，太好了。如果可以的話，我想再問盧卡最後一個問題。看看2022年的業績指引，儘管受到烏克蘭局勢的影響，營收依然強勁，但每股盈餘的波動範圍擴大了。聽起來你們在模型中預留了相當多的不確定性。我知道現在預測確實很難。但我們該如何看待這些利弊，以及在模擬潛在下行風險方面，哪些方面的展望可能顯得過於保守？

Thank you, John. As I said in the prepared remarks, I think it is fair to say that we feel quite confident about 2022 being another good year, both in terms of top and bottom lines, despite the numerous challenges that are thrown at us. I think we've mentioned how vibrant chocolate and biscuits businesses are. And I think when you look at volume mix and the pricing that is kicking in, that is the testament really of the big investments we have been making over the last few years and the fact that our franchises are very strong.

謝謝約翰。正如我在事先準備好的發言稿中所說，儘管面臨諸多挑戰，但我們對2022年依然充滿信心，相信無論從營收還是利潤來看，都將是另一個豐收年。我們之前也提到過巧克力和餅乾業務的蓬勃發展。我認為，從銷售量組成和當前的價格策略來看，這充分證明了我們過去幾年的巨額投資以及我們強大的特許經營體系所取得的成效。

It is undeniable that the geopolitical environment is driving additional costs. And just to give you a reference, inflation is now expected to be double digits versus the high single digits we had originally estimated. And that will result in additional multiple pricing waves across the board, across all our categories, quite frankly, since energy particularly has repercussions around a vast number of commodity classes. As we price away unprecedented inflation, clearly, the watchout is elasticity. And I want to make sure that you realize that we have planned for historical elasticities for the remainder part of the year. And so I wanted to be a little bit cautious in our forecast since at this point in time, we are not seeing that level of elasticity. And I also want to make sure that we'll realize that by having invested materially in the last 3 years, our brands are as strong as they have ever been.

毋庸置疑，地緣政治環境正在推高成本。舉例來說，通膨率預計將達到兩位數，而我們最初估計的只是個位數高點。坦白講，這將導致我們所有類別出現多輪價格波動，因為能源價格波動尤其會影響眾多商品類別。在將前所未有的通膨因素納入定價考量時，顯然需要關注的是價格彈性。我想確保大家明白，我們已根據歷史平均的價格彈性對今年剩餘時間進行了規劃。因此，鑑於目前我們尚未看到如此高的價格彈性，我希望在預測中保持謹慎。同時，我也想強調，過去三年我們投入巨資，讓我們的品牌實力空前強大。

So we certainly have an opportunity to do better on our revenue guidance. But again, quite frankly, if you slip out the Ukrainian impact, you realize that we are 2 points ahead of the original guidance on net revenue that we gave you at the beginning of the year. On the profit side, as we guided to high single-digit EPS, we had built into some cushion in our forecast. So we still have an opportunity to meet high single-digit EPS growth. But this situation is tighter than before because of the inflation and the Ukrainian-related business losses. And those accounts for around about $0.13 of EPS.

因此，我們當然有機會在營收預期方面做得更好。但坦白說，如果剔除烏克蘭業務的影響，你會發現我們目前的淨營收預期比年初給出的預期高出2個百分點。在利潤方面，由於我們先前預期每股收益將實現高個位數成長，因此我們在預測中預留了一些緩衝空間。所以我們仍然有機會實現高個位數的每股盈餘成長。但由於通貨膨脹和與烏克蘭業務相關的虧損，目前的情況比以往更加嚴峻。這些虧損約佔每股收益的0.13美元。

This is why we are now giving you a range to accommodate for further headwinds that might come our way. But in case of elasticities being more benign and more aligned to what we see today, and in the case of cost not worsening materially versus the double-digit inflation that I mentioned, high single-digit EPS is within reach. Obviously, we want to get to high single-digit EPS. And that's why, for instance, we are doubling down on cost initiatives. And there are streams within the company to ensure that on the productivity and cost control side, we do even better than we have been doing in the last few years. And so hopefully, if the situation doesn't worsen and the elasticities are better, high single digit will be within reach.

這就是為什麼我們現在給出的預測範圍是為了應對可能出現的進一步不利因素。但如果彈性係數較為溫和，與我們目前的情況更加吻合，並且成本不會像我之前提到的那樣大幅惡化（兩位數通膨），那麼實現接近兩位數的每股收益是完全可以實現的。顯然，我們希望實現接近兩位數的每股盈餘。正因如此，例如，我們正在加倍投入成本控制措施。公司內部也設有多個部門，以確保我們在生產效率和成本控制方面做得比過去幾年更好。因此，如果情況沒有惡化，彈性係數也更加合理，那麼實現接近個位數的每股盈餘就指日可待了。

Our next question is from Ken Goldman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

And I hope that your employees and their families in Ukraine are safe and doing as well as they can under the circumstances. And I would sort of back up what John was getting at. It does feel very low, 4% seems almost punitively low given 1Q strength. And I'm just -- my question, again, just to back up -- or my question would be just to back up what he was suggesting. If your pricing is going to accelerate, and it was almost 5% in the first quarter, and you're guiding to volumes being positive for the year, just mathematically, how do we get to 4%? It just feels like that's almost too low if pricing is going to be above 5% and volume is going to be positive. I just don't quite get how 4% is even in the cards if those 2 elements of guidance are there. I hope that makes sense.

我希望你們在烏克蘭的員工及其家人平安，在目前的情況下一切安好。我有點贊同約翰的觀點。 4%的成長率確實太低了，考慮到第一季的強勁表現，這幾乎低得令人難以接受。我的問題，再次強調一下──或者說，我的問題是為了支持他的觀點。如果你們的定價策略將加速上漲（第一季漲幅接近5%），而你們預期全年銷售將實現正成長，那麼從數學角度來看，4%的成長率怎麼可能呢？如果定價將超過5%，銷售也將實現正成長，那麼4%的成長率似乎就太低了。如果這兩個條件都符合預期，我實在不明白4%的成長率怎麼可能實現。希望我的意思表達清楚了。

I mean from your logic, it really -- it makes sense. The point here though is, a, we have 1 point of headwind related to the Ukrainian business stoppage. You might imagine that in places like Russia, for instance, there are restrictions, both in terms of importing. And as we mentioned a few times, we have scaled back operations. So volume there is going to be negative as well. And on top of that, as we have multiple pricing waves, as I said, we have planned for higher elasticity than what we are seeing at the moment.

我的意思是，按照你的邏輯，這確實很有道理。但關鍵在於，首先，我們面臨一個不利因素，那就是烏克蘭的商業停擺。你可以想像，像俄羅斯這樣的地方，進口方面也有限制。而且正如我們之前多次提到的，我們已經縮減了營運規模。因此，那裡的銷量也會是負成長。除此之外，如我所說，由於價格波動幅度較大，我們原本預期價格彈性會比目前的情況更高。

If we get better elasticities and we implement pricing flawlessly, as we have done in the last few rounds, there is obviously an opportunity to go higher in terms of revenue. But I wanted to be cautious because, clearly, the situation is quite fluid. You might imagine that in some places, we are getting to price increases that are more than double digit, I would say -- not double digit, but in the 15-plus percent. That's the number we are talking about. And so elasticity remains to be seen at these levels, and I wanted to be cautious.

如果我們能獲得更好的價格彈性，並且像過去幾輪那樣完美地執行定價策略，那麼顯然，營收還有提升的空間。但我希望保持謹慎，因為情況顯然瞬息萬變。您可以想像，在某些地區，我們的價格漲幅可能超過兩位數——不，應該說是超過15%。這就是我們所說的漲幅。因此，在這樣的價格水平下，價格彈性還有待觀察，所以我希望保持謹慎。

And just to clarify, though, that when you say that elasticity is being baked in at a higher level than today and back-to-normal levels, and you talk about Ukraine and Russia, and I understand there's some uncertainty in there, too. That is all baked into your estimate of volume hopefully being positive for the year, nonetheless, correct?

不過，為了澄清一下，您說彈性係數已經高於目前水平，並恢復到正常水平，您還提到了烏克蘭和俄羅斯，我知道其中也存在一些不確定性。儘管如此，您仍然希望今年的交易量為正，那麼所有這些因素都已包含在您的預測中，對嗎？

Yes. Yes, it is.

是的，沒錯。

Okay. And then just one last quick one for me. As we think about the remaining quarters, are there any considerations we should have, Luca, in mind when modeling each quarter, whether in terms of top line comparisons that may not be obvious, whether hard or easy with the pace of inflation?

好的。最後還有一個問題想問我。盧卡，在考慮剩餘幾個季度時，我們在對每個季度進行建模時，有哪些需要考慮的因素？例如，在營收比較方面，有哪些因素可能並不明顯，或是在通貨膨脹速度方面，有哪些難易度的考量？

Look, the only one thing you have to bear in mind is that last year, in Q3, we had the strike impact in the U.S., which obviously affected some of the revenue phasing in the U.S. But besides that, the only one thing that you had to think is about sequential pricing being higher throughout the quarters.

你看，你唯一需要記住的是，去年第三季度，我們受到了美國罷工的影響，這顯然影響了美國部分地區的收入發放。但除此之外，你唯一需要考慮的是，各季度的價格都會逐週上漲。

We'll take our next question from Andrew Lazar of Barclays.

接下來，我們將回答巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾提出的問題。

Great. I wanted to dig in a little bit on North America. Organic there was close to 8% in the quarter. And I think consumption or takeaway has been closer to maybe 4% or so. So I guess, given some of the supply chain issues that you're still dealing with, how have you been shipping so far ahead of consumption, and I guess, and also still losing market share in that market? I'm just trying to get a better handle on that.

好的。我想深入了解一下北美市場的情況。本季有機產品的市佔率接近8%。而我認為外賣或消費量佔比可能在4%左右。所以，考慮到你們目前仍在應對的一些供應鏈問題，你們是如何做到出貨量遠超消費量的，同時又在市佔率持續下滑的呢？我只是想更了解一下情況。

Yes. Well, Andrew, we do have a number of businesses in North America, our ventures, which are not followed by Nielsen. So if we think about Give & Go, for instance, or even Perfect Bar. They don't have the same coverage as the rest of our business. You will also imagine that, we came out of the strike, and we had subsequent high demand that our inventory levels in the trade were not as high as we would like them to be. So the combination of those 2 factors give that difference between the 4% and the 8% that you were talking about.

是的。安德魯，我們在北美確實有一些業務，也就是我們的一些投資項目，這些業務並沒有被尼爾森納入調查範圍。例如，像Give & Go或Perfect Bar這樣的品牌，它們的覆蓋範圍就和我們其他業務不一樣。你也應該能想像到，罷工結束後，市場需求激增，導致我們在零售通路的庫存水準沒有達到我們預期的水準。這兩個因素加在一起，就造成了你剛才提到的4%和8%之間的差異。

And then, Luca, maybe if we look at the difference between, let's say, high single-digit constant currency EPS growth and mid- to high single digit, if that's how it turns out. Maybe could you just break out the -- I guess, there were 3 key buckets there. I think you said, $0.03 was due to Russia, Ukraine. It sounded like another, maybe $0.10, if I'm hearing you right, on supply chain. And then what would sort of the cost inflation piece be? Again, just trying to bridge from high single digit to whatever turns out to be potentially somewhere below that.

盧卡，我們不妨看看，比如說，以固定匯率計算的每股收益成長率，如果最終結果是接近兩位數（高個位數）和接近兩位數（中高個位數）之間有什麼區別。你能不能把這部分單獨列出來──我想，這裡主要有三個面向。你說過，0.03美元的支出是由於俄羅斯和烏克蘭造成的。如果我沒聽錯的話，供應鏈方面可能還有0.10美元。那麼成本通膨的影響又是多少呢？我們只是想弄清楚，從接近兩位數的成長率到最終可能低於這個數字的成長率之間，究竟存在著怎樣的差距。

It is another $0.10 of cost headwind as we -- as I said in -- to the reply to John. Between the Ukrainian business loss and the revenue that came out of the plant last year in the Ukraine and the additional cost pressure driven by the Ukraine war, I see another $0.10. And so between the 2, it is $0.13 of EPS. Now, as I said, the high single digit, quite frankly, at this point, is predicated on elasticity. The elasticities are better than what we have baked into the forecast. It will be high single-digit EPS. If elasticities are more in line with historical levels of 1-plus, then I think we will have a little bit lower than high single-digit EPS.

正如我在回覆約翰時所說，這又增加了0.10美元的成本阻力。考慮到烏克蘭業務的虧損、去年烏克蘭工廠的收入以及烏克蘭戰爭帶來的額外成本壓力，我認為每股盈餘將再增加0.10美元。因此，這兩項加起來，每股盈餘將減少0.13美元。坦白說，正如我之前所說，目前接近兩位數的獲利成長取決於彈性。目前的彈性比我們預測的要好，所以每股盈餘將達到接近兩位數。如果彈性更接近歷史水準（1以上），那麼我認為每股盈餘可能會略低於接近兩位數。

And the supply chain piece, I didn't know if that was included in the $0.13 because you have those 3 buckets on that slide.

至於供應鏈部分，我不知道它是否包含在 0.13 美元中，因為幻燈片上有這 3 個桶子。

Yes, it is all included in there.

是的，都包含在裡面了。

We'll take our next question from Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.

接下來，我們將回答來自美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭提出的問題。

So a couple of questions, quick ones, I hope. First is just maybe a follow-up to Ken Goldman's question about like phasing through the year. I think on Slide 19, there's a comment in there that says you're expecting year-over-year profit dollar growth throughout 2022. So was that meant to be like each quarter? Is there any kind of variability in terms of, I guess, margin or profit growth per quarter? Just trying to understand if there's anything more behind that bullet.

我有幾個問題，希望都能很快回答。第一個問題可能算是對 Ken Goldman 關於全年分階段成長問題的後續。我記得在第 19 張投影片裡，有一條評論說你們預計 2022 年全年利潤都會比去年同期成長。這是不是指每季？每個季度的利潤率或利潤成長是否有任何波動？我只是想了解這則評論背後是否還有其他意義。

No, don't read too much into that. Obviously, we are expecting OI dollar growth throughout the quarters. We have to see how cost evolves throughout the quarters because, as I said, we have baked into the forecast the current cost levels. We are pretty much well covered for commodities for the remainder of the year. So at this point, I would say, yes, that's the idea. Depending, as I said a few times, on elasticity, there might be some bumps in the road, but that's the plan at the moment.

不，別過度解讀。顯然，我們預期各季度的未平倉合約美元收入都會成長。我們需要觀察各季度的成本變化，因為正如我所說，我們已經將當前的成本水準納入了預測。今年剩餘時間裡，我們的商品庫存基本上充足。所以目前來看，是的，這就是我們的想法。正如我之前多次提到的，根據彈性係數的不同，可能會出現一些波動，但這就是我們目前的計劃。

Okay. And then the second one is just, Luca, how do we think about or how are you preparing for the potential for maybe like the inavailability of maybe some input costs or other inputs, ingredients or other inputs? I guess given there's going to be certainly scarcity of wheat, it looks like -- and maybe some other raw materials. Just is that a factor that -- has that been factored into your forecast? And just is there any risk associated with that as we go through the balance of the year?

好的。第二個問題是，盧卡，您是如何考慮或準備應對某些投入成本或其他投入品、原料或其他原材料可能出現的短缺情況的？考慮到小麥肯定會短缺，其他一些原料也可能短缺。這是否是您預測中考慮過的因素？在今年剩餘的時間裡，這會帶來哪些風險？

The -- that is factored into the plan. I have to say, at this exact moment in time, clearly, we are facing some shortages, but they have no been a material impact yet to the business. So the plan that we have is extra cost will get us the commodities we need. You might have heard about the palm oil issue in Indonesia. That one for us is not a material issue at this point in time. We are clearly monitoring the situation very closely.

——這已納入計劃。我必須說，目前我們確實面臨一些短缺，但尚未對業務造成實質影響。因此，我們的計劃是增加成本，以確保獲得所需的商品。您可能聽說過印尼的棕櫚油問題。就目前而言，這對我們來說並非重大問題。當然，我們正在密切關注事態發展。

In terms of wheat, the wheat coming out of the Ukraine is mostly going into the Middle East and North Africa for us. As I said in the last call, the total wheat we procure for the company is $600 million, $700 million. So in the big scheme of things, we believe that, in total, wheat is not going to be a material problem in terms of supply. It hasn't been yet, but we have to see how the crop evolves and what can still be sourced out of the Ukraine, particularly for our Middle East and North African business.

就小麥而言，烏克蘭出產的小麥主要供應給我們在中東和北非的業務。正如我在上次電話會議中所說，我們為公司採購的小麥總額在6億至7億美元之間。因此，從整體來看，我們認為小麥供應不會構成實質問題。目前為止還沒有出現問題，但我們需要觀察作物生長情況以及還能從烏克蘭採購到多少小麥，特別是用於我們在中東和北非的業務。

And just if I could follow up on that. If we're looking at maybe some of the petrochemical-related, like packaging, especially in Europe, given just all of the disruption in energy there. Is there any risk around just availability of packaging, especially in Europe?

我能否就此追問一下。如果我們專注於一些與石油化學相關的領域，例如包裝，尤其是在歐洲，考慮到那裡的能源供應目前受到的衝擊，包裝供應是否有風險，尤其是在歐洲？

We are facing some issues on specific items, but the issues are not broad-based. Paper and -- particularly in places like Asia, it is under a lot of pressure at this point. But again, in terms of supply, we have some issues here and there, but nothing that racks up to a material number for the company yet. And I hope it stays that way.

我們目前在某些特定物料方面遇到一些問題，但這些問題並不普遍。紙張，尤其是在亞洲等地，目前面臨很大的壓力。不過，就供應而言，我們偶爾會遇到一些問題，但目前為止，這些問題都不會對公司造成實質的影響。我希望這種情況能夠繼續維持下去。

Our next question is from Chris Growe of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Chris Growe。

I just had 2 questions for you, if I could, please. So the first one, I'm just curious about, just to dig a little bit more into the pricing. Europe was an area where I think you've talked before about some pricing coming into place after Easter, like in April. I just want to get a sense if we should see that pick up in the second quarter. And that has historically been a very difficult area to get pricing. Is that an area where you think your pricing can offset inflation in -- broadly in Europe?

我有兩個問題想問您，可以嗎？第一個問題，我只是好奇想更深入地了解定價。我記得您之前提到過，歐洲地區的定價會在復活節後，例如四月開始調整。我想了解一下，第二季是否會出現這種調整。歐洲地區的定價歷來都比較困難。您認為在歐洲，您的定價策略能否抵銷通膨的影響？

Yes. So we've talked about the higher inflationary impact. We took pricing across all our markets in Q1, including Europe. So far, the demand for the category is pretty robust. But it's very likely that we will have to take another price increase in Europe. And in fact, we are going out to the clients right now. That probably is reflected on our forecast, and we're trying to be prudent there because that is not happening a lot in Europe that you have to do a second pricing. And so we will have to see what the reaction is, and we've taken a cautious approach on any potential effects that we could have from that.

是的。我們之前討論過通膨上升的影響。第一季度，我們調整了所有市場（包括歐洲）的價格。目前來看，該品類的需求相當強勁。但我們很可能需要在歐洲再次漲價。事實上，我們目前正在與客戶溝通。這可能已經反映在我們的預測中，我們在這方面力求謹慎，因為在歐洲，需要二次提價的情況並不常見。因此，我們需要觀察市場反應，並對可能產生的任何潛在影響採取了謹慎的態度。

We do expect that we will be able in Europe and in most of our markets to already be pricing away most of the inflation of this year and then be ready at the beginning of next year to whatever gap exists with the cost picture for '23 that we will also be able to do that pricing. So that leads to what Luca was saying, a very significant pricing increases around the world. As we also were saying so far, so good. Elasticity has been quite low. But we -- the second area where we're trying to be very careful is planning for historical levels. For instance, I believe that at the end -- or sorry, at the beginning of '23, the basket for the U.S. consumer will be up compared to the beginning of '21, more than 20%. And so we forecast that the elasticity will go back to historical levels.

我們預計，在歐洲和我們的大部分市場，我們能夠將今年的大部分通膨因素計入價格，並在明年年初做好準備，應對2023年成本結構可能存在的任何缺口，並進行相應的定價。正如盧卡所說，這導致了全球範圍內價格的大幅上漲。正如我們之前所說，到目前為止一切順利，彈性一直很低。但是，我們——第二個需要格外謹慎的領域是依照歷史水準來規劃。例如，我認為到2023年底——或者抱歉，應該是2023年初，美國消費者的消費籃子價格將比2021年初上漲超過20%。因此，我們預測彈性將回落到歷史水準。

Our categories have historically been very resilient. So despite this high inflation, despite the high pricing, we know that our categories are pretty good. One of the things we're seeing, for instance, is that this -- the fact that everything is going up, not just food, consumers continue to prioritize grocery spending. It's more on personal items, clothing, eating out, travel. Those are the items where they're trying to save. So that also gives us confidence that we will be able to implement the pricing and continue with the volumes. But again, we're trying to be careful and cautious, and we will have to see how it goes. It's a very volatile environment at the moment.

我們的品類歷來都具有很強的韌性。因此，儘管通膨高企，物價也居高不下，但我們知道我們的品類表現依然良好。例如，我們觀察到，雖然物價上漲，不僅僅是食品，但消費者仍然優先考慮食品雜貨支出。他們更多地將預算用於個人用品、服裝、外出用餐和旅行。這些才是他們試圖節省開支的地方。因此，我們也更有信心能夠維持目前的定價策略和銷售量。但我們仍然保持謹慎，需要觀察市場動態。目前的市場環境非常不穩定。

Okay. And I had just one quick follow-on. Did you give a level of inflation for the first quarter? I think we're looking at double-digit inflation now for the year. Does that pick up then as we go through the remaining quarters? Or was the first quarter at that level? I'm just trying to get a sense of the gross margin. Does that get a little more challenging before it gets better, before the pricing comes in place? Or is that a function of inflation picking up here?

好的。我還有一個後續問題。您有提到第一季的通膨水準嗎？我認為今年的通膨率已經達到兩位數了。接下來的幾季通膨率會上升嗎？還是說第一季就已經是這個水準了？我只是想了解一下毛利率的情況。在價格體系完善之前，毛利率是否會面臨一些挑戰？還是說這是通膨上升的結果？

The level of inflation, it is higher in Q1 for obvious reasons because you know that last year, the inflation picked up materially towards the second part of the year. And it caught us a little bit by surprise, the level that we saw in the second part of the year. And obviously, the level of gross margin in Q1 is reflective of 3 key elements. One, it is the additional pricing. When you look, for instance, at the U.S. business, you clearly see a level of revenue that is 8% with a modest volume mix impact, which means there is 8% pricing kicking in, in there. The second element is the fact that there is good volume growth in Q1 that provides leverage. And the third level is the protection in terms of hedges that we put in place in terms of commodities and ForEx.

第一季的通膨水準較高，原因顯而易見，因為去年下半年通膨率顯著上升。我們確實對下半年的通膨水準感到有些意外。顯然，第一季的毛利率反映了三個關鍵因素。首先是額外的定價。例如，以美國業務為例，在銷售結構變化不大的情況下，營收成長了8%，這意味著其中包含了8%的定價收益。其次，第一季銷售的良好成長提供了槓桿效應。第三，是我們採取的商品和外匯避險措施所提供的保障。

So as you think about inflation going down in the remainder part of the year, it will go down year-on-year, but the level is still going to be higher in terms of absolute dollars, and we will have to price accordingly. The volume might not be as high as the 4% that you saw in Q1. And so that will have a play into the gross margin evolution over the quarter. So I think assuming that you're going to see an 80 basis point decline given all the pricing we are about to take might not be necessarily realistic. The goal that we have, though, is that we want to enter 2023 with the level of pricing at current commodity and ForEx cost that allows us to have a level of gross margin that is more aligned to historical levels.

因此，儘管預計今年剩餘時間通膨率會下降（同比），但以絕對美元計算，通膨水準仍將較高，我們需要據此調整定價。銷量可能不會像第一季那麼高，達到4%。這將對本季的毛利率走勢產生影響。所以，考慮到我們即將採取的所有定價措施，假設毛利率會下降80個基點可能不太現實。不過，我們的目標是，在2023年，以目前的商品和外匯成本為基礎，將定價水準調整到能夠使我們的毛利率更接近歷史水準的程度​​。

Our next question is from Jason English of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑森·英格利希。

I guess a couple of quick questions. First, to follow up on the next wave of pricing in Europe. Have you approached the trade yet? How is it going? Because I believe this is close to sort of on-charter territory to be pushing through multiple rounds, at least in Continental Europe in the course of 1 year.

我想問幾個簡單的問題。首先，關於歐洲下一輪定價，你們已經開始與貿易方接洽了嗎？進展如何？因為我認為，至少在歐洲大陸，一年內要進行多輪定價，這已經接近包機定價的水平了。

Yes, it's just brand-new, so I cannot give you any feeling yet of where that stands. I think it's important to realize that we're in an extraordinary situation and that we will have all the necessary conversations with our trade partners and making sure that it's a win-win for everybody involved. But it's too early to give you an idea of where the negotiations will lead.

是的，這事才剛開始，所以我現在還無法透露進度。我認為重要的是要意識到我們正處於一個特殊時期，我們會與貿易夥伴進行所有必要的對話，確保實現各方共贏。但現在就談判走向如何還為時過早。

Got it. Okay. And the DSD route to Mexico that you're acquiring sounds really interesting. Can you give us more color on what your current route to market is? And whether or not -- I assume these are all company-owned, can you confirm that? And how long or should be -- I imagine we should expect, but how long do you think it will take for you to reroute the entire network to be able to get 1 route to market that you can efficiently maximize the loads of these trucks with?

明白了。好的。你們正在收購的墨西哥直銷路線聽起來很有趣。能否詳細介紹一下你們目前的市場路線？還有，我假設這些路線都是公司自有的，能否確認一下？至於重新規劃整個網絡，最終形成一條能夠有效利用現有卡車運力的市場路線，大概需要多長時間？我想我們應該有預期的時間，但你們預計需要多久才能完成？

Okay. So the DSD is an own system. The -- there are some contact points between the current Bimbo network and the Ricolino. So one of the things we will have to do is to carve out and create a little bit of additional infrastructure on our side, but nothing at this point, I would say that is worrisome. I feel quite good about the reach that Ricolino is going to have with 2,100 DSD routes, achieving 440,000 moms-and-pops, which is really where when you look at our biscuit business in Mexico being a 5% share of total market, the opportunity lies.

好的。 DSD是一個獨立的系統。目前Bimbo網路和Ricolino之間存在一些連接點。因此，我們需要做的其中一件事就是在我們這邊開闢並創建一些額外的基礎設施，但就目前而言，我認為這並不令人擔憂。我對Ricolino的覆蓋範圍相當有信心，它擁有2100條DSD路線，覆蓋44萬家小型零售商，而這正是我們在墨西哥餅乾業務中5%市場份額的真正潛力所在。

And on the other side, our Mexico sales complements the strong model trade presence with our sound modern trade presence what Ricolino has. And we feel like between revenue and cost synergies, this is going to be a material enhancement to the value of Mondelez. And so we are very, very excited. On top of that, the brands are very strong. And as Dirk said, particularly in the U.S., we see tremendous opportunities in pushing this brand through what is a cohort that is growing and has tremendous potential.

另一方面，我們在墨西哥的銷售業績與Ricolino強大的傳統通路銷售優勢相得益彰，進一步鞏固了我們在現代通路的穩固地位。我們相信，透過營收和成本綜效，這將顯著提升億滋國際的價值。因此，我們對此感到非常興奮。此外，這些品牌實力雄厚。正如Dirk所說，尤其是在美國市場，我們看到了巨大的機遇，能夠推動這個品牌在不斷成長且潛力巨大的市場群體中脫穎而出。

Our next question comes from Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自Piper Sandler公司的Michael Lavery。

Just was curious if you could dissect the volume mix a little bit and maybe help us understand if there's any notable mix shifts to keep in mind as we think about the volumes. Are you seeing down trading? Obviously, the elasticities have held up really well so far. But when you lump those together, we don't get as much a sense of the split. Can you give an idea a little bit of how that breaks out?

我只是想請您稍微分析一下成交量組成，或許能幫我們了解一下在分析成交量時需要注意哪些值得注意的組成變化。您觀察到下跌交易了嗎？顯然，到目前為止，彈性指標表現非常出色。但是，當我們把這些指標放在一起比較時，就很難看出其中的組成差異。您能否簡單解釋一下其中的構成情況？

Look, in total for the company, the mix component is very, very neutral. It hasn't been a problem. It hasn't been an upside either. And the simple way you have to think about it is North America is one of the most profitable operations that we have. And as we addressed the question of Andrew Lazar, Dirk said that the new businesses that we acquired are up, while our biscuit business in terms of volume is still below last year. And one of the reasons why that this is, a, we are lapping, clearly, tremendous growth last year in terms of volume. But also, as I look closely to the numbers, the supply-related issues that we have are causing still quite a bit of volume track compared to what it could be otherwise.

總的來說，對公司而言，產品組合的組成非常中性。它既不是問題，也不是優勢。簡單來說，北美是我們獲利能力最強的業務之一。正如我們之前回答安德魯·拉扎爾的問題時，德克表示，我們收購的新業務有所增長，而我們的餅乾業務銷量仍然低於去年。原因之一是，我們顯然正在追趕去年銷量的巨大成長。但仔細分析數據後，我發現我們面臨的供應問題仍導致銷售量與預期相比下降。

On the flip side, as you saw, gum is growing very, very healthily as a category, gum and candy, I think, 27%. And that number, obviously, is mix-accretive. The other one that is mix-accretive, it is about World Travel Retail, which is picking up nicely quarter after quarter, albeit it is not still at the level -- it is not yet at the level before the pandemic. So these are the 3 key mix components, North America volume being down because of supply chain issues, gum being up and that World Travel Retail being up. All the rest, in terms of mix, I would say, fairly neutral in its totality. And these 3 elements offset each other.

另一方面，正如你所看到的，口香糖作為一個品類，成長非常強勁，口香糖和糖果的成長率達到了27%。顯然，這個數字對整體品類構成起了促進作用。另一個對品類構成促進作用的因素是世界旅遊零售通路，它正逐季穩定回升，儘管目前尚未恢復到疫情前的水平。因此，這三個因素構成了關鍵的品類組成要素：北美地區的銷售量因供應鏈問題而下降，口香糖銷售成長，以及世界旅遊零售通路的銷售成長。就整體品類組成而言，其他部分則相對中性。這三個因素相互抵消。

Okay. That's great. That's really helpful. And can I just follow up on the buybacks? You still have a pretty elevated cash balance relative to historical levels. But even with the Ricolino deal, you're still expecting about $2 billion for this year. You've said you'll finance that deal with debt and cash. Is it a good portion of debt? Or I guess just with $750 million of buybacks already in Q1, could there potentially be upside to that $2 billion number over the course of the year?

好的，太好了，這真的很有幫助。可以再問一下股票回購方面的問題嗎？你們目前的現金餘額仍然遠高於歷史水準。即使算上Ricolino的交易，你們預計今年的現金流仍然在20億美元左右。你們說過會用債務和現金來支付這筆交易。債務佔比高嗎？或者說，考慮到第一季已經回購了7.5億美元，今年的回購總額是否有可能超過20億美元？

Look, let's stay tuned. The -- at this point, I feel that we have what it takes to be able to fund the $2 billion of buybacks. I'll provide a little bit more color around this at our Investor Day.

大家拭目以待。目前，我認為我們有能力籌集20億美元的資金用於股票回購。我會在投資者日上詳細說明。

Our final question comes from Alexia Howard of Bernstein.

最後一個問題來自伯恩斯坦公司的 Alexia Howard。

I just got a couple of questions. Firstly, on the emerging markets, the biggest pushbacks that I get at the moment is people concerned that as food prices escalate around the world, and the cost of basic food becomes a higher proportion of people's income in a lot of these low-income countries, that could choke off sales of more discretionary items like packaged snack food. How do you respond to that in terms of your confidence of sustained growth in the emerging markets in the face of that dynamic over the next year or so? And then I have a quick follow-up.

我剛剛收到幾個問題。首先，關於新興市場，目前我聽到的最大質疑是，人們擔心隨著全球食品價格上漲，尤其是在許多低收入國家，基本食品成本在人們收入中所佔比例越來越高，這可能會抑制包裝零食等非必需品的銷售。面對這種趨勢，您對未來一年左右新興市場持續成長的信心如何？接下來我還有一個問題。

Yes. I think as I was saying before, what we're seeing at the moment, we see that in developed and in emerging markets, the shift that the consumer is making as they are being confronted with inflationary pressure are more into their discretionary spending, into eating out, travel and so on. And we see that also in emerging markets where at this moment, there is food inflation, of course, but that we don't see a reduction in the basket of what they're buying.

是的。正如我之前所說，目前我們看到，無論是在已開發市場還是新興市場，消費者在面臨通膨壓力時，都更將資金投入到可自由支配的支出中，例如外出用餐、旅遊等等。我們也看到，在新興市場，雖然目前食品價格上漲，但我們並沒有看到消費者減少購買的商品種類。

The second thing I would say is that the discretionary part of snacking is, I would argue, that it's not so discretionary anymore with the modern consumers. Snacking is a big part of what they do. And for instance, in China, as people are going into lockdowns, we see an increase in salty biscuits happening because they considered it as a staple of their diet. And so I wouldn't just assume that snacks are discretionary. There are whole parts of snacking that are part of how consumers eat these days.

第二點我想說的是，零食不再是可有可無的選擇，我認為，對現代消費者來說，零食不再是可有可無的了。零食已經成為他們日常生活的重要組成部分。例如，在中國，隨著疫情封鎖措施的實施，鹹味餅乾的銷售量激增，因為他們將其視為日常飲食的必需品。因此，我不認為零食是可有可無的。零食在很大程度上已經成為現代消費者飲食方式的一部分。

And then, three, I would say we also work very carefully and particularly in places like India or in Brazil, our RGM approach is very developed. They have a whole plan or the -- year after year are absorbing the different inflations that they see. And so the price increase might not be as direct as you would assume for the consumer.

第三，我想說，我們在很多方面都做得非常謹慎，尤其是在印度或巴西這樣的國家，我們的RGM（收入成長管理）方法已經非常成熟。他們有一套完整的計劃，可以逐年應對不同的通貨膨脹。因此，價格上漲對消費者的影響可能不像你想像的那麼直接。

So because of those 3 elements, I think you continue to see very strong performance in our emerging markets. We -- at this stage, we see no effect whatsoever of the price increases. And in fact, as I was saying, the volume increase has been 10%. So obviously, you can never say never, but so far so good.

正是由於這三個因素，我認為我們在新興市場的表現依然非常強烈。目前，我們尚未看到價格上漲的任何影響。事實上，正如我剛才所說，銷量成長了10%。當然，凡事皆有可能，但就目前而言，一切進展順利。

Great. And then just finally, any quick preview comments about the Investor Day next month? I know you've just mentioned that there might be something around the share buybacks, but is there anything else that we should be expecting? And thank you very much for the question. I look forward to seeing you next month.

好的。最後，關於下個月的投資人日，您有什麼簡短的預告嗎？我知道您剛才提到可能會有關於股票回購的內容，但除此之外，還有其他值得期待的嗎？非常感謝您的提問。期待下個月見到您。

Sure. Alexia, this is Shep. A few things. I mean, look, I think this is more evolutionary in terms of the strategy and what you're going to hear, certainly going to get a deep dive especially with respect to biscuit and chocolate. And then you're going to hit a little bit more about capital allocation just in general in terms of how we're thinking about that. As well, I would expect to hear from some other folks on the team just in terms of our efforts around marketing, what we're doing with the sales organization and supply chain. So hopefully, we'll cover all bases. But to give you an idea, just in terms of where our heads are at as we look to accelerate going forward and give you some proof points to leverage off.

當然。 Alexia，我是Shep。有幾件事要說。我的意思是，我認為這次的策略更著重於發展演變，你接下來肯定會聽到一些深入的探討，尤其是在餅乾和巧克力方面。然後，我們會更詳細地討論一下資本配置，以及我們在這方面的思考。此外，我希望團隊其他成員也能分享我們在行銷、銷售組織和供應鏈方面的工作。所以，我們希望能夠面面俱到。為了讓你了解我們未來的發展方向，並提供你一些可以藉鏡的依據，我會盡量做到。

Thank you, everybody. Thanks for your presence here. Obviously, looking forward to see all of you during our Investor Day on 10th of May, and see you then.

謝謝各位。感謝你們的蒞臨。當然，我們非常期待在5月10日的投資人日上與大家見面，到時見。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

This does conclude today's Mondelez Corporation Q1 2022 Earnings Call. You may now disconnect, and everyone, have a great day.

今天億滋國際2022財年第一季財報電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開連線了，祝大家今天愉快。