億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

各位來賓，歡迎參加億滋國際2021財年第三季財報電話會議。本次電話會議預計持續約1小時，包括億滋管理階層致詞及問答環節。 （操作說明）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把電話交給億滋國際投資者關係副總裁謝普‧鄧拉普先生。請您發言，先生。

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides, which are available on our website.

下午好，感謝各位的到來。今天陪同我的是我們的董事長兼執行長德克·范德普特先生，以及我們的財務長盧卡·扎拉梅拉先生。今天早些時候，我們已發布了新聞稿和演示文稿，您可以在我們的網站上查看。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將就公司績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們目前的判斷。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。有關前瞻性陳述的更多詳情，請參閱我們提交的10-K、10-Q和8-K文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。

As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results. In addition, we provide our year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, unless otherwise noted. We're also presenting revenue growth on a 2-year CAGR basis to provide better comparability given the impact of COVID on 2020 results. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

在今天討論績效時，除非另有說明，我們將使用非GAAP財務指標，這些指標已根據GAAP績效中的某些項目進行了調整。此外，除非另有說明，我們將以固定匯率為基礎提供年增速。鑑於新冠疫情對2020年業績的影響，我們也以兩年複合年增長率(CAGR)為基礎列示營收成長，以便更好地進行比較。您可以在我們的獲利報告和簡報結尾找到對應的GAAP指標以及GAAP與非GAAP指標的調節表。

In today's call, Dirk will provide a business and strategy update. Then Luca will take you through our financial results and outlook. We will close with Q&A.

在今天的電話會議中，Dirk 將介紹公司業務和策略的最新進展。之後，Luca 將為大家講解我們的財務業績和展望。最後是問答環節。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Dirk.

接下來，我將把電話交給德克。

Thanks, Shep, and thanks to everyone for joining the call today. Q3 marked another quarter of high-quality top line growth for our business. This result was marked by a continuation of the solid volume growth that we are used to as well as higher contribution from pricing as we successfully executed pricing actions in multiple markets in light of the inflationary environment.

謝謝Shep，也謝謝今天所有參加電話會議的各位。第三季度，我們的業務營收再次實現了高品質的成長。這項業績得益於銷售持續穩健成長，以及價格因素帶來更高的貢獻。在通膨環境下，我們成功地在多個市場實施了價格策略。

Demand for our categories remains very strong across both developed and emerging markets. And within those categories, our market share remains higher than pre-COVID as a result of strength in execution, activation and innovation.

無論在已開發市場或新興市場，我們各品類的需求依然非常強勁。而且，由於我們在執行、推廣和創新方面表現出色，我們在這些品類的市佔率仍然高於疫情前水準。

As you know, like the rest of the industry, we are currently operating in a very dynamic environment that poses multiple challenges. These include input cost inflation globally as well as labor and truck shortages in markets like the U.S. and the U.K. We are taking the appropriate actions to navigate this, including further rounds of pricing and cost control. You will hear more on this in a moment from both myself and Luca later in the call.

如您所知，與業界其他企業一樣，我們目前正處於一個瞬息萬變的環境中，面臨許多挑戰。這些挑戰包括全球投入成本上漲，以及美國和英國等市場勞動力和卡車短缺。我們正在採取相應措施來應對這些挑戰，包括進一步的價格和成本控制。稍後，我和盧卡將在電話會議中就此進行更詳細的說明。

Despite the current operating environment, we remain focused on and confident in our long-term strategy of delivering accelerated growth through a virtuous top line-driven cycle, which requires continuous investment in our brands and our capabilities.

儘管當前經營環境充滿挑戰，但我們仍然專注於並堅信我們的長期策略，即透過良性循環的營收成長實現加速發展，而這需要我們持續投資於我們的品牌和能力。

Let me turn to Slide 5 and the consumer. During Q3, consumer confidence stabilized in general, with a notable callout of improved confidence in Western Europe, India and much of Latin America as consumers are now more optimistic about job prospects and personal finances in those geographies. Mobility continues to rise, which provides a boost to Gum & Candy as well as the travel retail channel, but both are expected to remain below pre-COVID levels at least through 2022.

讓我們來看第五張投影片，也就是關於消費者的部分。第三季度，消費者信心整體趨於穩定，尤其值得注意的是西歐、印度和拉丁美洲大部分地區的消費者信心有所提升，因為這些地區的消費者對就業前景和個人財務狀況更加樂觀。出行量持續成長，這提振了口香糖和糖果以及旅遊零售通路，但預計至少到2022年，這兩項業務仍將低於新冠疫情前的水平。

Ongoing uncertainty is fueling the desire for comfort and indulgence, which has been a consistent trend throughout COVID. And of course, this is benefiting trusted brands like ours. All of this means that our core categories are growing faster than they were pre-COVID and that our portfolio, which skews towards in-home consumption, is benefiting.

持續的不確定性加劇了人們對舒適和享受的渴望，這在新冠疫情期間一直是一個持續的趨勢。當然，這有利於像我們這樣值得信賴的品牌。這一切都意味著我們的核心品類成長速度超過了疫情前，而我們以居家消費為主的產品組合也從中受益。

Demand is strong in developed markets but especially so in emerging markets, notwithstanding a few smaller markets like Vietnam, which are suffering from continued COVID lockdowns. On top of all this, we have gained share during the COVID period. The elevated demand for our categories is contributing to price elasticity below historical levels. Consumers are willing to pay more for essentials or affordable treats as they spend less on eating and drinking outside the home.

已開發市場需求強勁，新興市場需求特別旺盛，儘管越南等少數小型市場仍受新冠疫情持續封鎖的影響。此外，我們在疫情期間也獲得了市場份額的成長。我們產品類別的高需求導致價格彈性低於歷史水準。由於消費者減少了外出用餐和飲酒的支出，他們更願意為必需品或價格適中的零食支付更高的價格。

Let me spend a moment on the current operating environment on Slide 6. Like other companies, we are experiencing cost inflation globally, particularly on transportation costs and packaging, which are most pronounced in the U.S. Costs have moved higher in the second half of the year relative to the first half, and we expect inflation to persist in 2022. There is also an element of volatility in the supply chain due to labor shortages at third parties combined with a significant gap between demand and supply of trucking capacity and containers in places like the U.S. and the U.K.

請容許我花一點時間談談幻燈片6中提到的當前營運環境。與其他公司一樣，我們正面臨全球成本上漲，尤其是在運輸成本和包裝成本方面，這種情況在美國最為明顯。下半年的成本較上半年上升，我們預期這種通膨趨勢將在2022年持續。此外，由於第三方勞動力短缺，以及美國和英國等地卡車運力和貨櫃供需之間存在巨大缺口，供應鏈也存在一定的波動性。

In addition, there are energy shortages in China as demand has outstripped the supply of electricity in many areas. And as you might be aware, we also had a strike at 3 of our plants and 3 distribution centers in the U.S. The strike is now resolved but impacted our production output in the quarter. The good news is that the new contracts give us flexibility and unlock additional capacity to support our growth ambition.

此外，中國許多地區的電力需求超過了供應，導致能源短缺。您可能也知道，我們在美國有3家工廠和3個配送中心發生了罷工。罷工現已結束，但影響了我們本季的產量。好消息是，新合約賦予了我們更大的靈活性，並釋放了額外的產能，以支持我們的成長目標。

COVID-19 continues to cause disruption in certain geographies. This was felt most acutely in Q3 in Southeast Asia and resulted in a temporary closure of our factory in Vietnam, for example. Although challenging, we are managing through all these dynamics. We believe we are well equipped to continue to deliver against our objectives given the strength of our brands, our continued investments, pricing as necessary and our focus on execution.

新冠疫情持續在某些地區造成影響。例如，東南亞地區在第三季受到的影響最為嚴重，導致我們在越南的工廠暫時關閉。儘管面臨挑戰，我們正積極應對。憑藉我們強大的品牌實力、持續的投資、必要的定價策略以及對執行的專注，我們相信我們有能力繼續實現既定目標。

Turning to Slide 7. You can see that our strategy is continuing to drive a virtuous cycle, and the results support our ability to consistently deliver profitable volume-driven growth, pricing as needed and return of capital to our shareholders.

請看第 7 張投影片。您可以看到，我們的策略正在繼續推動良性循環，結果也支持我們持續實現盈利性銷售驅動成長、按需定價以及向股東返還資本的能力。

We grew revenue by 5.5% in the quarter and 5% -- sorry, 5.1% year-to-date, lapping 3.9% growth in the first 3 quarters of 2020. Gross profit growth was impacted by cost inflation and supply chain volatility in Q3 but continues to be well over 4% year-to-date, which we consider to be a very healthy indicator of our ability to deliver the high single-digit adjusted EPS growth that is part of our 2021 outlook and our long-term financial algorithm.

本季營收成長5.5%，年初至今成長5.1%——抱歉，應該是5.1%，超過了2020年前三個季度3.9%的成長率。第三季毛利成長受到成本上漲和供應鏈波動的影響，但年初至今仍遠超4%，我們認為這是一個非常健康的指標，表明我們有能力實現2021年展望和長期財務演算法中設定的高個位數調整後每股收益成長目標。

Our year-to-date working media investments have increased double digit versus last year and, combined with our advantaged portfolio of brands and our execution and activation capabilities, mean that on a 2-year cumulative basis, we are gaining or holding share across 75% of our revenue year-to-date. And in terms of cash generation and capital return, we increased our year-to-date free cash flow by approximately $400 million versus last year, and we returned $3.1 billion of capital to shareholders.

今年迄今為止，我們的媒體投放投入較去年同期實現了兩位數成長。結合我們強大的品牌組合以及執行和推廣能力，過去兩年累計來看，我們今年迄今的收入中有75%實現了市場份額的成長或保持穩定。在現金流和資本回報方面，我們今年迄今的自由現金流較去年同期增加了約4億美元，並向股東返還了31億美元的資本。

Adding the Q3 revenue growth to our track record of performance since launching our strategy in late 2018, you can see on Slide 8 that we are now averaging a 4.1% quarterly growth rate. And we believe we can consistently grow in line or in excess of our long-term algorithm of 3% plus based on the long runway of growth opportunities we show on Slide 9 and the advantaged enablers we have to realize them. These enablers include, for instance, increased brand investment, higher-quality and purpose-led marketing and pricing when necessary.

將第三季營收成長納入我們自2018年底推出策略以來的業績記錄，如幻燈片8所示，我們目前的季度平均成長率為4.1%。我們相信，基於幻燈片9所示的長期成長機會以及我們實現這些機會的優勢，我們能夠持續維持或超越3%以上的長期成長目標。這些優點包括：例如，增加品牌投入，進行更高品質、目標明確的行銷，以及在必要時進行定價。

This quarter, we continued to make progress against our key growth drivers. These include continuing on our journey to grow Oreo by $1 billion by the end of 2023, with activations like Oreo x Pokemon, which became our fastest-selling addition of all time in the U.S., surpassing the previous record set by Game of Thrones and Lady Gaga Oreos. This also includes expanding our presence in key channels like digital commerce, which grew 25% this quarter on a reported basis, lapping 80% of growth in the previous year; and also in emerging markets where we continue to gain distribution in places like China and India with another 120,000 and 80,000 stores added this quarter.

本季度，我們在關鍵成長驅動因素方面繼續取得進展。其中包括繼續推進奧利奧在2023年底前實現10億美元銷售額的目標，例如奧利奧與寶可夢的聯名合作，該合作成為我們在美國有史以來銷售速度最快的產品，超越了此前由《權力的遊戲》和Lady Gaga聯名奧利奧創下的紀錄。此外，我們也擴大了在關鍵通路的業務，例如數位商務，本季按報告資料計算成長了25%，超過了去年同期80%的成長率；同時，我們在新興市場也持續拓展業務，例如在中國和印度，本季分別新增了12萬家和8萬家門市。

And finally, this includes increasing our exposure to high-growth segments where we are underrepresented, for example, well-being, where we announced breakthrough innovation this quarter on our largest brands with the Cadbury Plant Bar in the U.K., which is suitable for vegans; and our Oreo Zero Sugar in China, which has the clear potential to expand to other geographies.

最後，這也包括增加我們在高成長領域的投入，例如，在健康領域，我們本季宣布了旗下最大品牌在英國推出的突破性創新產品——吉百利植物巧克力棒，該產品適合素食主義者；以及在中國推出的奧利奧零糖，該產品顯然有潛力擴展到其他地區。

Turning to Slide 10. Let me update you on our sustainability journey. Climate change is a critical issue facing our planet, and we must do our part to help. We also know that if we want to deliver consistent long-term growth and shareholder returns, we must be a sustainable snacking company. For those reasons, we recently announced that we will take the necessary actions that we believe will allow us to achieve net 0 emissions by 2050. This is a major target that applies to all greenhouse gas emissions across Scopes 1, 2 and 3. This target also sees us join the United Nations Race to Zero campaign as well as the Science Based Targets initiative, business ambition for 1.5 degrees, where we are strengthening our position from our previous commitment of well below 2 degrees.

請翻到第10頁投影片。讓我向大家介紹一下我們的永續發展歷程。氣候變遷是我們星球面臨的嚴峻挑戰，我們必須盡自己的一份力量來應對。我們也深知，要實現持續的長期成長和股東回報，我們必須成為一家可持續發展的零食公司。因此，我們近期宣布將採取必要措施，爭取2050年淨零排放。這是一項重大目標，涵蓋範圍1、2和3的所有溫室氣體排放。為了實現這一目標，我們也加入了聯合國“奔向零排放”倡議、科學碳目標倡議以及“1.5攝氏度商業目標”，進一步鞏固了我們此前“遠低於2攝氏度”的承諾。

We plan to deliver net 0 by focusing on the highest contributors to our carbon footprint. In our case, there are raw materials, which contribute 71% of our emissions. We will amplify our existing programs like Cocoa Life and Harmony Wheat in support of this, and we will focus on leveraging emerging low-carbon technology at our owned operations.

我們計劃透過專注於碳足跡的主要貢獻者來實現淨零排放。就我們而言，原料是主要貢獻者，占我們碳排放量的71%。我們將加大現有專案（例如「可可生活」和「和諧小麥」）的投入，並致力於在自有營運中應用新興的低碳技術。

Alongside working towards net 0 emissions, we will continue to advance all other pillars of our ESG agenda, including sustainable ingredient sourcing, diversity, equity and inclusion and net 0 packaging. We are excited to continue our journey to build a sustainable snacking company.

在努力實現淨零排放的同時，我們將繼續推進ESG議程的其他所有支柱，包括可持續的原料採購、多元化、公平性和包容性以及淨零排放包裝。我們很高興能夠繼續致力於打造一家可持續發展的零食公司。

With our proven strategy, our preferred brands, our executional excellence, our compounding investments and our enhanced ESG agenda, I'm confident that we are well positioned to deliver strong performance for years to come.

憑藉我們行之有效的策略、我們備受青睞的品牌、我們卓越的執行力、我們持續成長的投資以及我們不斷完善的 ESG 議程，我相信我們已做好充分準備，在未來幾年取得強勁的業績。

With that, I will hand over to Luca for more details on our financials.

接下來，我會把麥克風交給盧卡，讓他詳細介紹我們的財務狀況。

Thank you, Dirk, and good afternoon. Our third quarter performance was strong across the board. We delivered top line strength, good operating profit dollar growth, including significant brand reinvestment, and excellent free cash flow.

謝謝Dirk，下午好。我們第三季的業績全面強勁。營收成長顯著，營業利潤也實現了良好的成長（包括大量的品牌再投資），自由現金流也十分充裕。

Revenue grew 5.5%, underpinned by solid volume growth and pricing that we have been implementing to counter unprecedented cost inflation. Emerging markets continued with accelerated growth, displaying the resilience of our categories and strong execution. They grew more than 12% for the quarter and nearly 9% on a 2-year basis. Our emerging markets results include double-digit growth in Brazil, Mexico and India as well as high single-digit growth in China, Russia and Africa. These markets are attractive growth engines for us. As consumer purchasing power continues to grow, as we fill white spaces, as we pursue distribution expansion and as consumers trade up, we continue to invest behind them in a big way.

營收成長5.5%，這主要得益於穩健的銷售成長以及我們為應對前所未有的成本上漲而實施的定價策略。新興市場持續維持加速成長，展現了我們品類的韌性和強大的執行力。本季新興市場成長超過12%，兩年累計成長近9%。我們在新興市場的業績包括巴西、墨西哥和印度的兩位數成長，以及中國、俄羅斯和非洲的高個位數成長。這些市場是我們極具吸引力的成長引擎。隨著消費者購買力的持續提升、我們不斷填補市場空白、拓展分銷管道以及消費者消費水準的提高，我們將繼續大力投資這些市場。

For the quarter, developed markets growth remained solid at 2%, with a 2-year average growth of 3%. Demand and consumption trends are robust in this market, albeit supply chain restrictions limited our growth, specifically in North America.

本季，已開發市場成長維持穩健，達2%，兩年平均成長率為3%。儘管供應鏈限制制約了我們的成長，尤其是在北美地區，但該市場的需求和消費趨勢仍然強勁。

Turning to Slide 13 and portfolio performance. Biscuits grew 2.7% and more than 5% on a 2-year average. Brazil, Russia and Mexico posted double-digit growth, while India and China grew mid-single digits. Oreo continues to be a standout performer. Chocolate grew more than 11% with a 2-year average of more than 8%. India, Brazil and France grew double digits. The U.K. grew high single digits, and Russia grew mid-single digits. Cadbury, Milka and Lacta all delivered robust, volume-led growth for the quarter. Gum & Candy posted double-digit growth, resulting from a continued improvement in mobility.

請參閱第13頁投影片，以了解投資組合表現。餅乾業務成長2.7%，兩年平均成長率超過5%。巴西、俄羅斯和墨西哥實現了兩位數成長，而印度和中國則實現了個位數中段成長。奧利奧繼續保持著優異的表現。巧克力業務成長超過11%，兩年平均成長超過8%。印度、巴西和法國實現了兩位數成長。英國實現了接近兩位數成長，俄羅斯實現了個位數中段成長。吉百利、妙卡和樂達在本季度均實現了強勁的銷售成長。口香糖和糖果業務實現了兩位數成長，這得益於出行需求的持續改善。

Moving to market share performance on Slide 14. We continue to see good share performance. On a 2-year cumulative basis, we have held or gained share in 75% of the business. Biscuits and chocolate held or gained in 80% of our revenue base. Notable share gainers on a 2-year basis include the U.S., China, Russia and Brazil biscuits and U.K., Australia, Russia and South Africa chocolate. Gum & Candy held or gained in 30% of our revenue base, primarily due to gum performance in China, Russia and France. Although still below pre-COVID levels, this category continues to improve with mobility trends.

請參閱第14頁投影片，以了解市場佔有率表現。我們持續保持良好的市佔率表現。過去兩年累計，我們在75%的業務領域維持或提升了市場佔有率。餅乾和巧克力業務在80%的收入基礎中保持或提升了市場份額。過去兩年中，美國、中國、俄羅斯和巴西的餅乾以及英國、澳洲、俄羅斯和南非的巧克力業務市場份額顯著提升。口香糖和糖果業務在30%的收入基礎中保持或提升了市場份額，這主要得益於口香糖在中國、俄羅斯和法國的出色表現。儘管仍低於新冠疫情前的水平，但隨著出行趨勢的改善，該品類正持續成長。

Moving to Page 15. Gross profit dollar grew 2% for the quarter, reflecting the acute impact of elevated inflation in commodities as well as transportation and labor costs in North America. While all other regions still face some inflation, they all display GP dollars growth in line with our expectations.

翻至第15頁。本季毛利成長2%，主要受北美地區大宗商品價格、運輸成本和勞動成本上漲帶來的嚴重通膨影響。儘管其他地區也面臨一定程度的通膨，但其毛利成長均符合預期。

In the short term, we have adopted our promo and trade deal spending to the elevated cost environment. But as we expect these dynamics to persist into 2022, we have also taken and announced price increases across a significant number of markets. Of note, we announced a new round of pricing last month in the U.S., which will go into effect at the start of next year. Although cost pressures are not as high as in the U.S., we also have a robust pricing agenda for other markets, too. We have implemented pricing in Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Southeast Asia in addition to other business units. Our goal remains to enter 2022 with improved dollar profitability levels from this action to support the virtuous cycle, which funds continuous investment.

短期內，我們已調整促銷和貿易交易支出以適應高成本環境。但由於我們預計這種趨勢將持續到2022年，因此我們也在多個市場採取並宣布了漲價措施。值得注意的是，我們上個月在美國宣布了新一輪定價，該定價將於明年年初生效。儘管其他市場的成本壓力不如美國那麼大，但我們也為其他市場制定了強而有力的定價策略。除了其他業務部門外，我們還在巴西、墨西哥、俄羅斯和東南亞實施了定價調整。我們的目標仍然是透過這些措施提高2022年的美元獲利水平，從而支持良性循環，為持續投資提供資金。

Operating income dollars increased 4.5% due to strong overhead management and simplification initiatives. We continue to invest in A&C, which was up almost double digits in the quarter. On a year-to-date basis, gross margin has increased nearly 5%, while operating income dollars have grown by more than 8%. A&C has increased double digits.

由於有效的成本控制和簡化流程，營業收入成長了4.5%。我們持續投資於A&C業務，該業務在本季實現了近兩位數的成長。年初至今，毛利率成長了近5%，營業收入成長超過8%。 A&C業務也實現了兩位數的成長。

Moving to regional results on Slide 16. Europe revenue grew 4.6% in the quarter and 4% on a 2-year basis. OI dollars grew 5 -- 4.5% versus last year, reflecting a strong virtuous cycle.

接下來是投影片16的區域業績。歐洲地區本季營收成長4.6%，兩年累計成長4%。營業收入較去年同期成長5%至4.5%，反映出強勁的良性循環。

North America grew 0.3% on top of 6.3% growth last year, resulting in a 2-year average growth of 3.3%. Operating income declined 9.7% in the quarter. Overall, North America results were negatively impacted by service-level constraints in the U.S. as transportation and labor shortages have impacted both cost and sales. These constraints are primarily impacting our external manufacturing and third-party logistics partners. We expect profit dollar growth to improve in conjunction with recently announced price increases across much of our U.S. portfolio that go into effect as of January 1 next year. For the quarter, the impact of the 6-week U.S. strike was mitigated by a business continuity plan, which included increasing inventory levels ahead of it. Nevertheless, there will be an impact in Q4, which I will discuss in our outlook.

北美地區在去年6.3%的成長基礎上，本季成長0.3%，兩年平均成長率為3.3%。本季營業收入下降9.7%。整體而言，由於運輸和勞動力短缺導緻美國服務水準受限，北美地區的業績受到負面影響，成本和銷售額均受到影響。這些限制主要影響我們的外部製造合作夥伴和第三方物流合作夥伴。我們預計，隨著近期宣布的美國大部分產品組合的價格上調（將於明年1月1日生效），利潤成長將有所改善。本季度，為期六週的美國罷工的影響已透過業務連續性計劃得到緩解，該計劃包括提前增加庫存水準。儘管如此，罷工仍會對第四季產生影響，我將在展望部分對此進行討論。

AMEA posted growth of 5.7% and a 2-year average of 4.9%, with broad-based trends apart from Southeast Asia, where COVID-related restrictions did impact our Q3. India delivered double-digit growth in the quarter, and China delivered high single-digit growth. AMEA operating income dollars grew nearly 8% while continuing to make sizable working media and route-to-market investments.

亞太及中東地區（AMEA）第三季成長5.7%，兩年平均成長率為4.9%，除東南亞地區外，整體成長動能良好。東南亞地區受新冠疫情相關限制措施的影響，第三季業績受到影響。印度市場本季實現兩位數成長，中國市場接近兩位數成長。 AMEA地區營業收入成長近8%，同時公司持續增加對媒體和市場管道的投資。

Latin America grew 26% in Q3 and 14% on a 2-year average. Brazil and Mexico both grew double digits, while dollars in Latin America grew double digits over prior year due to pricing and volume growth.

拉丁美洲第三季成長26%，兩年平均成長率為14%。巴西和墨西哥均實現兩位數成長，而拉丁美洲的美元銷售額較上年同期也實現了兩位數成長，這主要得益於價格和銷量的成長。

Now turning to EPS on Slide 17. Q3 EPS increased 9.4% at constant currency driven primarily by operating gains, with year-to-date EPS increase of nearly 9%.

現在來看第 17 頁的 EPS。第三季 EPS 以固定匯率計算成長 9.4%，主要得益於營業利潤，年初至今 EPS 成長近 9%。

Moving to cash flow and capital return on Slide 18. We delivered free cash flow of $700 million in the third quarter, bringing us to $2.1 billion on a year-to-date basis. We also repurchased approximately $1.8 billion in shares in the first 3 quarters at attractive prices.

接下來請看第18頁投影片，了解現金流和資本回報。第三季我們實現了7億美元的自由現金流，年初至今累計自由現金流達21億美元。此外，前三個季度我們也以優惠的價格回購了約18億美元的股票。

I wanted to spend a quick moment on some of the significant improvements in our debt structure, financing costs and pension costs on Slide 19. Since 2014, interest expense has been reduced by approximately 60% despite an increase in total borrowings with a current average rate of 1.7%. At the same time, we have extended our maturity from 7.7 years to 9.6 years. Similarly, pension funding has improved significantly in the recent years to 99%, driving material reductions in pension contribution requirements and costs. And in September, we issued our first green bond, which was the largest today in the CPG sector, enabling us to cost effectively fund our sustainability initiatives around cocoa, packaging and our net 0 carbon target.

我想簡單介紹一下第19頁投影片中提到的我們在債務結構、融資成本和退休金成本方面的一些顯著改善。自2014年以來，儘管總借款額有所增加，但利息支出已減少了約60%，目前的平均利率為1.7%。同時，我們將債務期限從7.7年延長至9.6年。同樣，近年來退休金資金充足率也顯著提高至99%，從而大幅降低了退休金繳款要求和成本。此外，我們在9月發行了首支綠色債券，這是目前消費品產業規模最大的綠色債券，使我們能夠以經濟高效的方式為圍繞可可、包裝和淨零碳排放目標的各項永續發展措施提供資金。

Let me spend a moment on Slide 21 regarding the current cost and supply chain environment and our actions. The supply chain environment remains a challenge for us, like many others, with higher cost inflation as well as labor shortages at the third parties and strained transportation capacity. We have a well-established playbook to mitigate the impact of inflationary and supply chain pressures over time. This includes successful implementation of price increases as part of our RGM strategy, supported by the strength of our brands.

關於當前成本和供應鏈環境以及我們採取的措施，我想花一點時間談談第21張投影片。和許多其他公司一樣，供應鏈環境對我們而言仍然是一個挑戰，成本通膨加劇，第三方勞動力短缺，運輸能力也捉襟見肘。我們有一套完善的方案來逐步緩解通膨和供應鏈壓力的影響。這包括成功地實施價格上漲，作為我們RGM策略的一部分，並依賴我們強大的品牌實力。

We're also continuing in our journey of portfolio simplification to identify additional SKU reduction opportunities and to improve service levels and overall efficiency. In terms of our manufacturing network, we are taking actions to free up capacity with more flexibility in some of our plants and logistics networks.

我們也持續推進產品組合簡化，以尋找更多減少SKU的機會，並提升服務水準和整體效率。在生產網路方面，我們正在採取措施，在部分工廠和物流網路中釋放產能，以提高靈活性。

We also continue to execute our hedging programs of key commodities, which we believe have been effective, as you can tell by looking at our realized and unrealized mark-to-market gains this year. Overall, we are confident that these initiatives will allow us to offset the majority of the pressures we are currently seeing and will drive long-term profit dollar growth, albeit with some lumpiness given the cadence of pricing and input cost increase.

我們持續執行關鍵商品避險計劃，並認為這些計劃行之有效，您可以從我們今年已實現和未實現的市值收益中看出這一點。總體而言，我們相信這些舉措將幫助我們抵消目前面臨的大部分壓力，並推動長期利潤成長，儘管考慮到價格和投入成本上漲的節奏，利潤成長可能會出現一些波動。

Moving to our outlook on Slide 22. We expect most of the trends that we have experienced in Q3 to extend into Q4, including robust demand for our categories and brands in both developed and emerging markets, continued transportation and labor inflation and supply chain pressure in our North American region, increased focus on revenue growth management activities across a wider span of businesses, high level of reinvestment in our people, brands, markets and capabilities.

接下來是第 22 頁的展望。我們預計第三季的大部分趨勢將延續到第四季度，包括已開發市場和新興市場對我們品類和品牌的強勁需求、北美地區運輸和勞動力成本持續上漲以及供應鏈壓力、在更廣泛的業務範圍內更加註重收入增長管理活動、以及對我們的員工、品牌、市場和能力進行高水平的再投資。

Based on our strong results year-to-date, continued categories resilience and solid demand trends, we are raising our full year revenue growth outlook to approximately 4.5%. This implies Q4 growth of 3% or nearly 4.5% on a 2-year CAGR and assumes approximately a 1 point of top line headwind from the impact of the continued transportation and logistic constraints and the recent strike in the U.S. As the in-market conditions remain fluid, this outlook does not reflect a material worsening from current environment.

鑑於我們年初至今的強勁業績、各品類持續的韌性以及穩健的需求趨勢，我們將全年營收成長預期上調至約4.5%。這意味著第四季成長3%，或以兩年複合年增長率計算接近4.5%，並假設持續的運輸和物流限制以及近期美國罷工將對營收成長造成約1個百分點的負面影響。由於市場環境仍不穩定，這項預期並不反映當前環境的實質惡化。

In terms of EPS, we continue to expect high single-digit growth for the full year despite the initial pressure from commodities and transportation and labor dynamics in North America. We also expect free cash flow generation of $3 billion plus. ForEx translation is now expected to positively impact our reported revenue by 2 percentage points and EPS by $0.09 on the year based on current market rates.

就每股盈餘而言，儘管北美大宗商品、運輸和勞動力市場動態初期會帶來壓力，我們仍預計全年將實現高個位數成長。我們也預計自由現金流將超過30億美元。根據目前市場匯率，外匯折算預計將使我們的報告收入增加2個百分點，每股收益增加0.09美元。

One note related to our Simplify to Grow restructuring plan. We have expanded the program by 1 year as we are still left with about $100 million of available funds that we plan to spend on high-return supply chain and overhead-related projects. The overall amount of the restructuring program is unchanged, so this does not change anything else in our outlook for this and next year. Our updated outlook is based on current conditions and does not factor a material degradation in the operating environment that could be triggered by a significant worsening of COVID or supply chain restrictions.

關於我們的「簡化成長」重組計劃，有一點需要說明。由於我們仍有約1億美元的可用資金，並計劃將其用於高回報的供應鏈和營運成本相關項目，因此我們將該計劃延長了一年。重組計劃的總額保持不變，因此不會影響我們對今年和明年的展望。我們更新後的展望是基於當前情況，並未考慮因新冠疫情顯著惡化或供應鏈限製而可能導致的營運環境實質惡化。

To wrap up, we are encouraged by the trajectory of demand for our brands and categories across our geographies. We are confident in our growth strategy and our ability to continue to execute against it going forward. This means balanced and consistent top and bottom line growth, continued reinvestment in our business, disciplined cost management and strong free cash flow generation.

總而言之，我們對旗下品牌和品類在各地區的市場需求成長動能感到鼓舞。我們對自身的成長策略以及未來持續有效執行該策略的能力充滿信心。這意味著我們將實現營收和利潤的均衡穩定成長，持續對業務進行再投資，嚴格控製成本，並創造強勁的自由現金流。

With that, let's open it up for Q&A.

接下來，我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take a question from Andrew Lazar of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們將回答巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾提出的問題。

Two for me. I guess first, Dirk, if you could talk a little bit more about key trends you're seeing in both emerging and developed markets and really the key consumer dynamics there. And then, Luca, maybe if you could give us a bit more rationale behind the implied deceleration in 4Q organic sales growth and then touch on preliminary expectations for 2022 on the top and bottom line.

我有兩個問題。首先，Dirk，你能詳細談談你在新興市場和已開發市場觀察到的關鍵趨勢，以及這些市場的關鍵消費者動態嗎？其次，Luca，你能解釋一下第四季度有機銷售成長放緩背後的原因，並簡要談談你對2022年營收和利潤的初步預期嗎？

Thank you, Andrew. I'll start and then I can hand it over to Luca. Well, if I look first at emerging markets, they continue to be a major growth engine for us. In Q3, they grew double digit. Year-to-date, they're growing double digit. They're high single digit on a 2-year CAGR. So very strong volume growth, good pricing.

謝謝安德魯。我先開始，然後交給盧卡。首先來看新興市場，它們仍然是我們主要的成長引擎。第三季度，它們的成長率達到了兩位數。今年迄今為止，它們的成長率也達到了兩位數。兩年的複合年增長率接近兩位數。所以，銷售成長非常強勁，定價也很合理。

And linking that to the consumer, I think what we're seeing is that the consumer confidence is improving in markets like India, big parts of Latin America. They are seeing the vaccine rollout. They're seeing life going back to normal. They feel better about their personal finances, and that is reflected in their consumption. At the same time, they still spend more time at home, which benefits our categories.

而就消費者而言，我認為我們看到的是，在印度和拉丁美洲大部分地區等市場，消費者信心正在增強。他們見證了疫苗的推廣，生活也逐漸恢復正常。他們對個人財務狀況感到更安心，而這反映在他們的消費行為上。同時，他們仍然待在家裡的時間更長，這對我們的產品類別來說是有利的。

Particularly, the BRIC countries are very strong with a very strong double-digit growth in India and Brazil and high single-digit growth in China and Russia. The execution there in those 4 countries has been excellent this quarter. But at the same time, looking at Africa, Poland, Pakistan, Mexico, they're all growing well. The only places in the emerging markets where we see some disruption is in some smaller markets, particularly Southeast Asia, where the COVID cases were quite severe, and there was serious restrictions. We talked about our plant in Vietnam being closed for 3 weeks. And so that has had an effect on Q3, but hopefully, that will be temporary.

尤其值得一提的是，金磚四國（BRIC）表現非常強勁，印度和巴西實現了兩位數的強勁成長，中國和俄羅斯也實現了接近兩位數的成長。這四個國家本季的執行情況都非常出色。同時，非洲、波蘭、巴基斯坦和墨西哥等新興市場也都保持著良好的成長動能。新興市場中唯一受到一些幹擾的地區是一些規模較小的市場，特別是東南亞，這些地區的疫情較為嚴重，並實施了嚴格的限制措施。我們之前提到過，我們在越南的工廠關閉了三週。因此，這確實對第三季業績造成了一定的影響，但希望這種情況只是暫時的。

On developed markets, what I would say, demand is strong. But it's a challenging operating environment, particularly in the U.S. So we had big consumption spikes in 2020, particularly in the U.S. But so far, we were up 2% in revenue in Q3 and just over 1% year-to-date, lapping a very strong last year. But if you look at a 2-year CAGR, it's over 3%. That is well above where we were in 2019, where we were growing about 2% in developed markets. And we see the consumers' behavior, where the consumer on average is spending 15% more time at home than before the pandemic, that is clearly benefiting our categories and our portfolio.

就已開發市場而言，我認為需求強勁。但經營環境充滿挑戰，尤其是在美國。 2020年，我們經歷了消費激增，尤其是在美國。但截至目前，第三季營收成長了2%，年初至今成長略高於1%，延續了去年強勁的業績。如果看兩年的複合年增長率，則超過3%。這遠高於2019年的水平，當時我們在已開發市場的成長率約為2%。我們觀察到消費者行為的變化，即消費者平均在家的時間比疫情前增加了15%，這顯然有利於我們的產品類別和產品組合。

Looking particularly or specifically at North America. It's growing well on a 2-year CAGR, almost 4%, but declining slightly year-to-date versus last year. But again, 2020 was an extremely strong year for North America. The demand remains very robust in biscuits, but the service challenges in the second half due to pressures on the logistic capacity, third-party labor and the strike, which is now resolved, had an impact in Q3 and will continue to have an impact in Q4.

特別關注北美市場。該地區過去兩年的複合年增長率接近4%，表現良好，但今年迄今的成長速度較去年同期略有下降。不過，2020年對北美市場而言仍是極為強勁的一年。餅乾的需求仍然十分旺盛，但由於物流能力、第三方勞動力以及罷工（現已解決）等因素帶來的壓力，下半年的服務挑戰對第三季度造成了影響，並將持續影響第四季度。

Europe, we're seeing a very solid quarter, very solid year-to-date. The demand for our core categories is robust. We've got very strong year-to-date revenue growth for the U.K., for Germany, the Nordics. And mass retail, which is lapping strong growth last year, is still very good. And then, of course, we're benefiting from the recovery in convenience and travel retail as the consumer is regaining mobility.

歐洲市場本季表現非常穩健，年初至今的業績也十分強勁。我們核心品類的需求十分旺盛。英國、德國和北歐地區的年初至今營收成長尤為顯著。大眾零售業務延續了去年的強勁成長勢頭，目前依然保持良好狀態。此外，隨著消費者出行能力的恢復，便利商店和旅遊零售業務的復甦也為我們帶來了收益。

Maybe the other thing that I would say, that we are in an inflationary environment. We've been increasing prices, and we plan to increase prices more than we've done at least in the time that I'm here and probably for quite a while as a company. But what is good is that the elasticity levels are below historic levels and almost nothing to speak of. So that is helping the overall performance.

我還要補充一點，我們目前處於通膨環境。我們一直在漲價，並且計劃在未來很長一段時間內，至少在我任職期間，以及公司營運期間，進一步提高價格。但好消息是，價格彈性低於歷史水平，幾乎可以忽略。這有助於提升整體業績。

Maybe over to you, Luca.

盧卡，該你上場了。

Thank you, Dirk. Andrew, so I'll start with revenue guidance. And as far as revenue goes, I would simply say the business is fundamentally in a good place. You might have seen in the pages that we presented that chocolates and biscuits categories are vibrant. On a 2-year stack, our share gains are very good. And you might also have noticed that pricing contribution is increasing, as you would expect given the cost pressures we are facing, but also that volume is holding up quite well.

謝謝，Dirk。 Andrew，那我先從營收預期說起。就營收而言，我只想說公司基本面良好。您可能已經從我們展示的資料中看到，巧克力和餅乾品類表現強勁。從兩年的累積數據來看，我們的市佔率成長非常可觀。您可能也注意到，正如您所預期的，考慮到我們面臨的成本壓力，價格貢獻正在增加，而且銷售量也保持得相當不錯。

We can also say that virtually all international businesses are positioned very well for both Q4 and 2022. However, in North America, obviously, the 6-week strike predominantly but also the volatility that Dirk mentioned is putting some pressure on our supply chain, and that will impact the Q4 performance in a context where the market is fairly positive and demand is quite good. So we estimated, mostly because of the strike impact in Q4, that there will be a 1 point of revenue pressure for the whole of Mondelez.

我們也可以說，幾乎所有國際業務都為第四季和2022年做好了充分準備。然而，在北美，顯然，持續六週的罷工以及Dirk提到的市場波動給我們的供應鏈帶來了一定的壓力，這將在市場整體較為樂觀、需求良好的情況下影響第四季度的業績。因此，我們預計，主要由於罷工的影響，億滋國際整體營收將受到1個百分點的壓力。

So to sum it up, Q4 is still going to be a good quarter, I believe, in terms of revenue when considering that there is the onetime strike impact. And at this point, we feel quite good about top line and its momentum into 2022.

總而言之，我認為即使考慮到罷工帶來的一次性影響，第四季營收依然會表現良好。目前，我們對營收成長前景及其在2022年的發展動能都相當樂觀。

From a profitability standpoint, we also feel good about the full year profit outlook. In the end, I think you know that year-to-date GP dollar is up by 5%, EBIT by 8% and all in a context where we are increasing A&C double digit with overhead flat. And I feel comfortable with our EPS high single digit guidance for 2021.

從獲利能力角度來看，我們對全年獲利前景也感到樂觀。最終，我想您也知道，今年迄今的毛利成長了5%，息稅前利潤成長了8%，而這一切都是在我們維持營運成本不變的情況下，展銷及相關費用達到兩位數成長的背景下取得的。我對2021年每股收益實現高個位數成長的預期感到滿意。

Having said that, I have to recognize that there is some GP pressure in Q3, and that will persist into Q4 and partly into 2022. The pressure is due to commodity transportation costs and compounded, quite frankly, by some industry-wide supply chain constraints. North America is driving most of the pressure in the GP line in the quarter, and it is, in fact, the only region that declined GP dollars versus last year with the other regions all above or close to our goal of 4% GP growth year-on-year.

儘管如此，我必須承認第三季毛利面臨一定的壓力，這種壓力將持續到第四季度，並部分延續到2022年。壓力主要來自大宗商品運輸成本，坦白說，一些行業範圍內的供應鏈限制也加劇了這種壓力。北美是本季毛利壓力的主要來源，事實上，它是唯一一個毛利同比下降的地區，而其他地區的毛利同比增長率均高於或接近我們設定的4%的目標。

We are taking the appropriate actions to counter those cost spikes. We had recently announced a 6% to 7% price list increase in the U.S., which will take effect in 2022, January. We have also announced pricing in Q4 in Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Southeast Asia, Africa and across Western Europe. We are leveraging our GM, as we said many times, also going after productivity and general cost measures. So we expect a sequential improvement versus previous years in the following quarters as more pricing kicks in.

我們正在採取適當措施來應對成本飆升。我們近期宣布，美國市場的價格將調高6%至7%，調整將於2022年1月生效。此外，我們也宣布了巴西、墨西哥、俄羅斯、東南亞、非洲和西歐地區第四季的價格調整方案。正如我們多次強調的，我們正在利用通用汽車的資源，同時致力於提高生產效率並降低整體成本。因此，隨著更多價格調整措施的實施，我們預計未來幾季業績將較往年有所改善。

So at this point, we believe that our 2022 EBIT growth will be solid through volume mix, pricing, obviously, productivity. And we are still contemplating meaningful A&C increases at this point. So 2022 from an EBIT standpoint should be on algorithm based on what we know today. Let's stay tuned because, obviously, Q1 will be a little bit more pressured, and we will provide more clear and comprehensive guidance in the next earnings cycle for 2022.

因此，目前我們認為，2022 年息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 的成長將保持穩健，這主要得益於銷售組合、定價以及生產效率的提升。我們目前仍在考慮大幅提高廣告和成本 (A&C)。所以，根據我們目前掌握的信息，2022 年的息稅前利潤預測應該會比較靠演算法來預測。請大家繼續關注，因為顯然第一季會面臨更大的壓力，我們將在下一個財報週期中提供更清晰、更全面的 2022 年業績指引。

Our next question is from Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的尼克莫迪。

This is Filippo Falorni on for Nik. I just want to go back to your long-term guidance on organic sales growth of 3% plus. You've shown a slide that since the implementation of your new strategy, you've clearly delivered a 4% organic range pretty consistently and on average for several quarters now, and you just raised guidance for this year. So I was just wondering in your confidence of delivering 4% consistently going forward and potentially raising your long-term organic sales growth outlook going forward.

我是Filippo Falorni，代表Nik發言。我想再次確認您之前提到的3%以上的長期有機銷售成長預期。您展示的幻燈片顯示，自從實施新策略以來，您已經連續幾季穩定地實現了4%的平均有機成長，而且您剛剛提高了今年的預期。所以我想了解一下，您對未來持續實現4%的成長有多大信心，以及您是否會提高長期有機銷售成長預期。

Yes. Maybe I'll start, and obviously, Dirk can chip in here. Looking at the end, we see the long-term algorithm as a baseline. Our categories, if you look at historical levels, they have been growing 3, 3-plus percent. And that clearly is a good place to start from. We plan to gain share. So we should be always above the 3% mark. And that's really what drives this baseline. In the end, we are more focused on actuals than long-term algorithms. And by executing well, obviously, we aim at being closer to a number that is with 4 than with 3. And so that's really the rationale behind the long-term algorithm.

是的。也許我先來，當然，Dirk 也可以補充一些內容。長遠來看，我們把長期演算法當作基準。從歷史數據來看，我們各個類別的成長率都在 3% 以上。這顯然是一個不錯的起點。我們計劃擴大市場份額，所以應該始終保持在 3% 以上。這正是我們設定基準的真正原因。最終，我們更關注實際數據，而不是長期演算法。顯然，透過有效執行，我們的目標是更接近 4% 而不是 3%。這就是長期演算法背後的真正邏輯。

If there are some catalysts, namely some portfolio changes and more acquisitions, I think that will be the good opportunity for us to revisit the algorithm and declare formally that we aim at something higher than 3% plus. But I think you're right. In the end, the track record we have speaks for itself. We have been steadily delivering higher growth, and we plan to do so also going forward.

如果出現一些催化劑，例如投資組合調整和更多收購，我認為這將是我們重新審視演算法並正式宣布目標高於3%的良機。但我認為您是對的。最終，我們過去的業績足以說明一切。我們一直在穩步實現更高的成長，並且計劃在未來繼續保持這一勢頭。

Got it. That's helpful. And then a quick follow-up. Your market share performance has been very strong in recent quarters and over the last couple of years. Some of your global brands like Oreo have done extremely well. Can you just talk a bit about your local brands and how they've been doing recently and over the last year or so?

明白了，這很有幫助。還有一個後續問題。貴公司近幾個季度以及過去幾年的市佔率表現都非常強勁。像奧利奧這樣的全球品牌更是表現出色。能否請您談談貴公司本土品牌近期以及過去一年左右的表現？

Yes. So historically, our global brands have been growing faster than local jewels, but we have been accelerating the growth of our local jewels and largely through renovations and activations. 2020 was different. There, our local jewels grew faster than our global brands because a number of our global brands were impacted by COVID-related changes in consumer behavior. So Toblerone, for instance, because of travel retail, declined. Halls, sorry, because there was very limited cough and cold season, and then Trident because the gum category was impacted by reduced mobility.

是的。從歷史數據來看，我們的全球品牌成長速度一直快於本土品牌，但我們一直在加速本土品牌的成長，主要透過門市翻新和推廣活動來實現。 2020 年的情況有所不同。那一年，我們的本土品牌成長速度超過了全球品牌，因為我們的一些全球品牌受到了新冠疫情導致的消費者行為變化的影響。例如，由於旅遊零售通路的萎縮，瑞士三角巧克力 (Toblerone) 的銷量有所下降；霍爾斯 (Halls) 的銷量也出現了下滑，因為感冒和咳嗽的流行季節非常短暫；而 Trident 口香糖的銷量則受到了出行減少的影響。

If you then look at 2021 -- year-to-date 2021, global brands are now growing faster again than local jewels, but both are growing very strongly. Both are in the mid-single-digit group. And we're very happy with where our local brands are at this moment. From flat to declining a few years ago, they're now, as I said, mid-single digit. We continue to step up brand investments year-over-year, and we're going to continue to activate more local jewels over time. So we think we found the ideal balance, and we continue to keep on going as we are.

如果再看看2021年——截至2021年，全球品牌的成長速度再次超過本土珠寶，但兩者都保持著強勁的成長動能。兩者的成長率都達到了中等個位數。我們對本土品牌目前的狀況非常滿意。幾年前，它們的成長率還停滯不前甚至有所下降，而現在，正如我所說，已經達到了中等個位數。我們將繼續逐年加大品牌投資，並隨著時間的推移，繼續激活更多本土珠寶品牌。因此，我們認為已經找到了理想的平衡點，並將繼續保持目前的勢頭。

We'll take our next question from Ken Goldman of JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將回答摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼提出的問題。

We'll move next to the site of Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.

接下來，我們將前往美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭的所在地。

So just 2 quick ones for me. One, just a follow-up on the commentary for 4Q, Luca. Just kind of listening to some of the puts and takes on the gross profit line. Are gross margins in the fourth quarter going to be somewhat similar to what we saw in 3Q? Or do you expect a further deterioration?

我這裡就兩個問題簡單問一下。第一，盧卡，我想就第四季的業績分析做個後續。我聽了一些關於毛利率的分析。第四季的毛利率會和第三季差不多嗎？還是你預計會進一步下滑？

Versus last year, they should be a little bit better. We should have a little bit less pressure. Remember, we are, in some emerging markets, specifically implementing additional pricing, which went into effect in July, August. And so it should be sequentially better when compared to last year.

與去年相比，情況應該會略有改善。我們面臨的壓力也會稍微減輕。請記住，我們在一些新興市場實施了額外的定價措施，這些措施已於7月和8月生效。因此，與去年相比，情況應該會有所改善。

Year-over-year. But what about just sequentially? I think it was 38.3% in the third quarter. So is fourth quarter going to be in that neighborhood?

同比來看。但如果按季度來看呢？我記得第三季是38.3%。那麼第四季會在這個範圍內嗎？

Yes, it will be around that neighborhood, a little bit lower, most likely on a pure number -- pure number standpoint. Yes.

是的，應該就在這個範圍內，可能會略低一些，純粹從數字角度來看──就是從數字本身的角度來看。是的。

Okay. And then, Dirk, just your perspective on the incremental rounds of pricing that you're taking to offset inflation and I guess how it will be different this time. I think if we go back prior to your coming to Mondelez, one of the issues was that there was quite a bit of pricing taken over time to protect or build margins, and it definitely had an impact on volume, on demand. I mean it's a big part of what you came in to address and change in time you've been at Mondelez.

好的。那麼，Dirk，我想問你對公司為抵銷通膨而採取的逐步提價措施有何看法，以及這次會有哪些不同之處。我想，如果我們回顧一下你加入億滋國際之前的情況，其中一個問題是，為了保護或提高利潤率，公司長期以來採取了相當多的提價措施，這無疑對銷量和需求產生了影響。我的意思是，這正是你加入億滋國際後著手解決與改變的重點之一。

So maybe you could just kind of talk about how you've thought about that dynamic this time around and how it will be different, maybe the way you're approaching pricing. Or just what's different about the ability to have some pricing power this time versus the last time Mondelez really tried to lean into pricing to protect or build margins?

所以，您能否談談您這次是如何看待這種動態的，以及它與以往有何不同，例如您在定價方面採取了哪些策略。或者，與億滋國際上次真正嘗試透過價格戰來保護或提高利潤率相比，這次擁有一定的定價權有何不同？

Yes. I mean as a principle, what we're trying to do is the mixture between volume growth, pricing and mix needs to offset the inflation. That's how we think about it. And then on top of that, we have a whole productivity program, which we use to increase our margins. So it's different from the past in the sense that we are not as aggressive on pricing. We're not trying to build extra margin because of pricing. We're trying, through the mixture of those 3 things, maintain it as it is. And then the extra comes from the productivity programs.

是的。我的意思是，原則上，我們努力的目標是透過銷售成長、價格和產品組合的平衡來抵消通貨膨脹的影響。我們就是這麼考慮的。除此之外，我們還有一套完整的生產力提升計劃，用來提高利潤率。所以，與過去不同的是，我們不再像以前那樣激進地定價。我們不再試圖透過價格來增加利潤。我們試圖透過這三方面的平衡來維持利潤率不變。而額外的利潤則來自生產力提升計畫。

The other big difference versus the past is that we continue to increase year-over-year our investment in our brands. First of all, our overall A&C popped, but then also how much we're shifting within A&C into working media. So the worst you can do, I think, is increase prices and not increase your support for your brand. So we've been supporting our brands now every year more and more. Our media pressure has significantly increased versus 3, 4 years ago. We can see that the brand health is increasing. So I think our brands are now more susceptible to pricing, and the consumers should accept it better. Those are the 2 big differences, Bryan, versus what it was a few years ago.

與過去相比，另一個重大變化是我們持續增加對品牌的投入。首先，我們的整體廣告和傳播投入大幅成長，其次，我們也增加了廣告和傳播領域對媒體推廣的投入。我認為，最糟糕的做法就是提高價格卻不增加對品牌的支持。因此，我們每年都在加強對品牌的支持力道。與三、四年前相比，我們的媒體壓力顯著增加。我們可以看到品牌健康狀況正在提升。所以我認為，我們的品牌現在更容易接受價格調整，消費者也應該更容易接受。布萊恩，這就是與幾年前相比的兩大變化。

We'll take our next question from Chris Growe of Stifel.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Stifel 公司的 Chris Growe 提出的問題。

I just had a question first as we think about sort of a planning assumption for next year as you have some strong pricing going into place, especially like in the U.S. Do you model it such that the elasticities remain very favorable? Or do you expect elasticities to be more like the historical average and then if you -- it's better than that, and that represents upside to your outlook? I'm just curious how you think about that with what you're seeing with the consumer today.

我首先有個問題，因為我們在考慮明年的規劃假設，考慮到一些強勁的定價策略即將實施，尤其是在美國。你們的模型是否假設彈性係數會保持非常有利？或者你們預期彈性係數會更接近歷史平均水平，如果情況比平均水平更好，那就代表你們的預期有上行空間？我只是好奇你們如何看待當前消費者的消費行為。

Yes. At the moment, what we are modeling is the historical elasticity. We have to take into account also that -- and we know that the current elasticity we're seeing is better. So that would potentially be an upside for us. We also are using what we call RGM, revenue growth management, which is a mixture of different techniques, if I can call it like that. And it's not always a straightforward price increase.

是的。目前，我們建模的是歷史彈性。我們也必須考慮到這一點——而且我們知道，目前我們看到的彈性更好。所以這對我們來說可能是一個利好因素。我們也正在使用一種稱為收入成長管理（RGM）的方法，它融合了多種不同的技術。而且，它並不總是簡單的漲價。

If I look at the consumer, I think the main thing that had worked here is that consumer confidence is stabilizing. Mobility is on the rise. They have an ongoing desire for comfort. So they want a snack, and they're spending more time at home. All that gives a very strong demand for our categories. Our categories are growing more like 4% around the world versus the 3% that we usually planned for.

如果我觀察消費者，我認為這次市場成功的關鍵在於消費者信心趨於穩定。行動出行日益普及，人們對舒適的需求也持續成長。因此，他們想要零食，而且待在家裡的時間也更多了。所有這些都為我們的產品類別帶來了強勁的需求。我們產品類別的全球成長率約為4%，高於我們通常預期的3%。

And so I think that is leading the consumer to almost have no elasticity at the moment. And we hope -- or we think that, that will remain quite a while. And so I think we don't want to do that in our planning for next year, but we do believe that there might be better elasticity than what we're planning for at the moment.

所以我認為這導致目前消費者的需求彈性幾乎是零。我們希望——或者說我們認為——這種情況會持續相當長一段時間。因此，我們不希望在明年的計劃中出現這種情況，但我們確實相信，明年的需求彈性可能會比我們目前的計劃更好。

Okay. And then I have one other question in relation to North America. Just to understand if you had any more detail on -- and if you gave this, forgive me if I missed it, but around sort of the costs around the strike. I know you talked about maybe some hit to revenue in the fourth quarter. And then I would contend that you shifted a little bit below consumption this quarter. Just to understand kind of the effect on the business that we saw this quarter in Q3 from the strike overall. And that's all I had.

好的。我還有一個關於北美的問題。我想了解您是否能提供更多關於罷工成本的細節——如果您已經提到過，如果我錯過了請見諒——我知道您說過第四季度收入可能會受到一些影響。而且我認為您本季的消費量略有下降。我想了解罷工對第三季整體業務的影響。我的問題就這些。

Yes, maybe...

是的，也許吧…

Yes, go ahead, Luca.

好的，盧卡，請繼續。

Yes, maybe I'll take that. So on the strike, from a top line standpoint, as we said in Q3, the impact is fairly muted. There was virtually no impact as we enter the quarter with relatively high trade stock. Given the elevated consumption, we have depleted that stock. And so there is an impact in Q4 that we quantified together with some other supply chain-related issues at 1 point of revenue for Q4.

是的，也許我會接受。就罷工而言，從營收角度來看，正如我們在第三季所說，其影響相當有限。由於我們進入本季時貿易庫存相對較高，因此幾乎沒有受到影響。鑑於消費量激增，我們已經消耗掉了這些庫存。因此，第四季確實存在一些影響，我們將其與一些其他供應鏈相關問題一起量化為第四季營收的1個百分點。

From a cost standpoint, we have mitigated the cost impact. Obviously, all the puts and takes are slightly negative, but they are not meaningful on the total P&L profile for Q4. Clearly, some demand pressure -- some supply pressure will put a little bit of a cost strain on the value chain, and we will have a little bit of under-absorption kicking in, in the P&L in Q4. But that's as far as it goes. No material, I would say, overall at this point.

從成本角度來看，我們已經減輕了成本影響。顯然，所有投入和產出都略微為負，但對第四季的整體損益表影響不大。顯然，一些需求壓力——一些供應壓力——會給價值鏈帶來一些成本壓力，導致第四季度損益表出現一些消化不足的情況。但僅此而已。我認為，目前來看，整體而言，沒有實質的影響。

We'll take our next question from Alexia Howard of Bernstein.

接下來，我們將回答來自伯恩斯坦公司的 Alexia Howard 提出的問題。

So I have 2 questions. The first one is on pricing. It sounded as though you're getting the pricing in North America in early January, and yet you've been able to take pricing in a number of other regions earlier than that. I'm just wondering if there's something structural or procedural in North America that makes it harder or lengthier, longer to take pricing here and just what -- if you have observations on that.

我有兩個問題。第一個是關於定價的。聽起來你們好像在一月初才拿到北美地區的定價，但你們在其他一些地區卻能更早拿到定價。我想知道北美地區是否存在一些結構性或程序性的問題，導致在這裡獲取定價資訊更加困難或耗時更長，具體是什麼問題——如果您對此有任何觀察的話。

And then my follow-up question is really around the net 0 commitment. I remember a few months ago, I think there was a reticence to make that commitment that some of the other companies have made. Did something change? Did you get better visibility into how you might achieve that goal? Or is it more about things are changing out in the world faster, and therefore, you've got to make that commitment and see where it takes you?

我的後續問題主要圍繞在淨零排放承諾。我記得幾個月前，你們似乎對做出這項承諾有所猶豫，而其他一些公司已經做出了這項承諾。現在情況有改變嗎？你們是否更清楚地了解如何實現這個目標？或者說，是因為外在環境變化太快，所以你們必須做出這項承諾，看看結果如何？

Okay. You take pricing, I'll take net 0, Luca.

好的。你負責定價，我負責淨額結算，盧卡。

Yes, let's partner here, Dirk. So Alexia, the simple answer is we had locked in -- particularly on promotional activities, also given obviously some internal dynamics to our company, which we discussed, we had locked in promotional windows and promotional activities well before Q2. And that bound us with our customers to certain promo windows and certain promo activities. And we thought that rather than disrupting even further the supply chain, our preference was really to go for a full 100% price increase as of January 1.

是的，我們來合作一下，德克。阿萊克西婭，簡單來說，我們已經敲定了——尤其是在促銷活動方面，當然也考慮到我們公司內部的一些動態，我們之前也討論過——我們在第二季度之前就已經確定了促銷窗口和促銷活動。這使得我們和客戶必須遵守特定的促銷窗口和促銷活動。我們認為，與其進一步擾亂供應鏈，我們更傾向於從1月1日起全面提價100%。

So there might be a couple of quarters of dislocation. But I think, all in all, considering all the effects that we had internal and external, it was better for us to go in effect with pricing as of Q1 next year. Obviously, we will be extremely nimble here. We still don't know to what extent logistics cost will spike during the Christmas season and the holiday season in the U.S. So if we see continuous cost pressure, at this point, we cannot rule out additional pricing waves. And at that point, it will be more simultaneous to what we see than it has been this last time.

因此，可能會出現幾季的市場混亂。但我認為，總的來說，考慮到我們面臨的內部和外部各種影響，從明年第一季開始實施新價格對我們來說是更好的選擇。顯然，我們會非常靈活地應對。我們目前還不清楚聖誕節和美國假期期間物流成本會飆升到什麼程度。因此，如果成本壓力持續存在，我們不能排除未來會出現更多價格調整的可能性。而且，屆時價格調整的同步性將會比上次更高。

Okay. On net 0, the thinking was that we wanted to make sure that we have worked as much detail as we potentially could. And so we were a little bit reticent in the past year to declare anything until the team have done their homework. And so they've been working quite hard. We've come quite deep. I've been told that it's probably one of the deepest exercises in trying to understand how do you really get there. And so we were really wondering, a, will we get there? Can we make a plan that we can realistically believe in that it's doable? And then we wanted to know the different details step-by-step, what it means.

好的。在淨零階段，我們的想法是確保盡可能地考慮到所有細節。因此，在過去一年裡，我們一直比較謹慎，直到團隊完成所有準備工作，我們才敢妄下斷言。他們確實非常努力，我們已經深入研究了。有人告訴我，這可能是最深入的練習之一，旨在弄清楚如何真正實現目標。所以我們一直在思考：我們能達成目標嗎？我們能否制定一個切實可行的計劃？然後，我們想一步一步地了解各個細節，以及它們的意義所在。

So if I summarize it a little bit, it's obviously a very significant announcement for us. It's really an acceleration and an extension of our exiting initiative, applies to all our greenhouse gasses and the full supply chain, so Scope 1, 2 and 3. And with this, we are joining the UN Race to Zero and the SBTi business ambition for 1.5-degree Celsius.

簡單概括一下，這顯然對我們來說是一項非常重要的公告。它實際上是對我們現有措施的加速和擴展，適用於我們所有的溫室氣體排放以及整個供應鏈，包括範圍 1、2 和 3。透過這項舉措，我們加入了聯合國「零排放競賽」和「永續發展目標倡議」（SBTi）的「1.5 攝氏度溫控目標」。

If you look at our footprint, 71% of our footprint is coming from ingredients. And so the 3 big areas we need to work on is those ingredients. It's our own operations and it's our logistics. And if you think about it, in ingredients, that means that we need to continue and increase our investment in Cocoa Life. That's one of the big factors. We have a wheat program related to regenerative agriculture. We need to extend that.

如果我們看一下我們的碳足跡，就會發現71%的碳足跡都來自原料。因此，我們需要重點關注的三大領域是原料、我們自身的營運、以及物流。仔細想想，就原料而言，這意味著我們需要繼續並增加對Cocoa Life的投資。這是關鍵因素之一。我們有一個與再生農業相關的小麥項目，我們需要擴大該項目的規模。

We need to make sure that our whole packaging approach is clear on recyclable but also working on the recyclability and the use of virgin plastic over the years. We needed to get into our operations, understand renewable electricity. We need to reduce food waste, which we've done quite significantly, but we need to do more, 15% in our own operations, 50% in our distribution, for instance. We need to change all our ovens. We need to change all our boilers and so on and so on. And then in logistics, we need to switch to electric vehicles, hydrogen trucks, work on our warehouse emissions and change the efficiency of our networks, just to name a few things of what this means.

我們需要確保整個包裝方案都明確以可回收為核心，同時也要致力於提高可回收性和減少原生塑膠的使用。我們需要深入了解營運流程，掌握再生電力的使用方法。我們需要減少食物浪費，雖然我們已經取得了顯著成效，但仍需繼續努力，例如，在自身運作中減少15%，在配送環節減少50%。我們需要更換所有烤箱、鍋爐等等。在物流方面，我們需要改用電動車和氫燃料卡車，減少倉庫排放，提高物流網路的效率，以上僅列舉了部分工作內容。

So the team has worked through all these details, and they've come up with a plan that is credible. It's not easy. We've also made a 10-year plan for the company, Vision 2030, which during 2022, we're planning an Investor Day around that. And all the costs of net 0 have been built into that plan, which is another thing that we wanted to make sure of, that we have the costs clear.

所以團隊已經仔細研究了所有這些細節，並制定了一個切實可行的計劃。這並不容易。我們還為公司製定了一個十年計劃——“2030願景”，並計劃在2022年圍繞該計劃舉辦投資者日。所有淨零成本都已納入該計劃，這也是我們希望確保成本清晰透明的另一個方面。

So that's why you felt in the past months, we were a little bit sort of hesitant because we were working through this exercise, and I really didn't know is this going to all add up and is it a plan that we can really believe in. But I think we've come up with something strong, that the company feels that we can deliver. It's not going to be easy, but that's why we can make the announcement right now.

所以，這就是為什麼過去幾個月我們一直有些猶豫不決的原因，因為我們一直在摸索前進，我真的不知道這一切最終能否奏效，也不知道這是否是一個值得我們真正信賴的計劃。但我認為我們已經制定了一個強而有力的方案，公司也相信我們能夠實現。這絕非易事，但也因為如此，我們現在才能宣布這個消息。

We'll take our next question from Jason English of Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將回答高盛集團的傑森·英格利希提出的問題。

Congrats on a good result.

恭喜你取得好成績。

Thank you, Jason.

謝謝你，傑森。

A couple of questions for me. First, the 6% to 7% price increase in the U.S., is that weighted average? Is that what we should actually expect to see flowing through the P&L? Or is it on partial portfolio, dampening effects? Anything we should be considering as we put pen to paper on our models?

我有幾個問題。首先，美國6%到7%的價格上漲幅度，這是加權平均值嗎？這是否是我們應該預期實際反映在損益表中的漲幅？還是說這只是部分投資組合的漲幅，存在一定的抑制效應？在製定模型時，我們應該考慮哪些因素？

It is an overall net average price increase in the U.S. portfolio. So we have announced it for biscuit, and on average, that's the number. We are going with Gum & Candy as well. Halls will be a little bit later in the cycle. But all in all, it is going to be very close to the 6%, 7%.

這是美國產品組合的整體淨平均價格上漲。我們已經宣布了餅乾的價格上漲，平均漲幅就是這個數字。口香糖和糖果的價格也將上漲。霍爾斯糖果的價格上漲週期會稍晚。但總的來說，漲幅將非常接近 6% 或 7%。

Got it. Okay. And then sticking to North America quickly, the Simplify for Growth charges that are being backed out there are pretty substantial. I think it's roughly $330 million year-to-date. So really chunky, chunky numbers. Can you elaborate on what is all this expense that we're backing out? And what is the expected return on all these investments?

明白了。好的。接下來我們快速回到北美地區，目前「Simplify for Growth」計畫產生的費用相當可觀。我記得今年迄今大約是3.3億美元。所以，這確實是一筆不小的數目。能詳細說明一下這些費用包含哪些內容嗎？以及這些投資的預期回報是多少？

We announced earlier in the year the closure of 2 plants. And with all the activities we have been having around the reset of some of the U.S. network, that's really the biggest part of the cost in restructuring. So that's really what it is at this point.

今年早些時候，我們宣布關閉兩家工廠。加上我們一直在進行的美國部分電網重組工作，這實際上是重組成本的最大部分。所以目前的情況就是這樣。

And the anticipated return or savings that you expect to be generating from that?

您預期從中獲得的收益或節省是多少？

Obviously, we have an internal rate of return expectation that is well in excess of cost of capital. You might imagine that particularly as it relates to the 2 plants, we're going to avoid fixed cost as we go into next year. And so the return is going to be on the high side. On top of that, the strike resolution did get us additional flexibility. It was a win-win for us and our employees to whom we gave good benefits, I believe. But together with the avoidance of fixed costs, the additional flexibility, this program itself is going to yield good returns.

顯然，我們的內部報酬率預期遠高於資本成本。您可以想像，尤其就這兩家工廠而言，我們明年將避免固定成本。因此，回報率將會很高。此外，罷工解決方案也為我們帶來了更大的靈活性。我認為這對我們和員工來說都是雙贏的，因為我們為員工提供了優厚的福利。但除了避免固定成本和增加靈活性之外，該計劃本身也將帶來豐厚的回報。

We'll take our next question from David Palmer of Evercore ISI.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer 提出的問題。

Wondering if you could talk about the third quarter gross margin decline. Your pricing was 3%. How much do you think was the impact of input inflation versus other factors like the supply chain inefficiencies in the U.S. and the U.K.? And I have a quick follow-up.

我想請您談談第三季毛利率下降的問題。你們的定價是3%。您認為原物料價格上漲的影響有多大？與其他因素（例如美國和英國的供應鏈效率低）相比，又有多大的影響？我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. As I said, in the end, when I look at really GP growth across the board for our regions, I feel quite good about what was accomplished across the European business, the AMEA business and the Latin American business. The pressure came really from North America entities, quite frankly, mostly attributable to the logistics and transportation cost constraints that we have seen.

是的。正如我所說，最終，當我全面審視我們各區域的毛利成長時，我對歐洲業務、AMEA業務和拉丁美洲業務的成就感到非常滿意。坦白說，壓力主要來自北美業務，這主要是由於我們所面臨的物流和運輸成本限制。

We also have to acknowledge though that particularly around some commodities like edible oils, et cetera, there has been some pressure. So I would say the GP line pressure comes in Q4, mostly because of the commodity and logistics costs, and it is mostly attributable to the North American business. And so as you think going forward, pricing should really improve margins because I believe the cost severity in Q3 is quite high. It might go a little bit further in Q4 and into next year, but we cannot escalate proportionately the same amount as we have seen in Q2 and Q3 in Q4 and into 2022. So that's a little bit of color around the GP line.

不過我們也必須承認，某些大宗商品，例如食用油等，確實面臨一些壓力。因此，我認為毛利壓力主要出現在第四季度，這主要是由於大宗商品和物流成本上漲，而且主要來自北美業務。展望未來，價格上漲應該能夠真正改善利潤率，因為我認為第三季的成本壓力相當大。第四季以及明年可能會略有上升，但我們無法像第二季和第三季那樣，在第四季以及2022年按比例增加成本。以上就是關於毛利的一些情況。

And just a quick follow-up to Jason's question about price increases in the U.S. It sounds like those alone -- those announced price increases might add upwards of 1 point to your global price number heading into the first half of '22. Is that right?

關於傑森提出的美國物價上漲問題，我再補充一點。聽起來光是這些已宣布的漲價就可能讓你們2022年上半年的全球物價上漲1個百分點以上。是這樣嗎？

And then I'm just curious for the entirety of '21 for gum and World Travel Retail, you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you wouldn't get back to 2019 levels, perhaps even into the end of '22, but that doesn't mean you can't get some of that back in '22. So how far below in '21 were those businesses versus '19?

然後，我很好奇2021年全年口香糖和世界旅遊零售業務的情況。您在事先準備好的發言稿中提到，2021年全年口香糖和世界旅遊零售業務的業績可能無法恢復到2019年的水平，甚至可能要到2022年底才能恢復，但這並不意味著2022年就完全無法恢復到之前的水平。那麼，2021年這些業務的業績與2019年相比究竟下降了多少呢？

Yes. Maybe I'll go with the first part, and Dirk can answer the Gum & Candy questions. Look, I think you know how big North America is in total for the company, and you have a sense of what a 6%, 7% price increase would do. So I think your math is, in ballpark, right. Obviously, the question is how is volume going to react. And what we are seeing at the moment, it is that elasticities are more benign than they have been historically, but we need to see protracted price increases into next year. And we need to see what moving away from some price anchors will do to our consumers, and that's a little bit the question mark at this point. As I said though, for the totality of the company at this time, I see good revenue momentum going into '22, and I see revenue being an algorithm for next year as well.

是的。或許我會先回答第一部分，Dirk 可以回答關於口香糖和糖果的問題。你看，我想你很清楚北美市場對公司整體的重要性，也應該了解 6% 到 7% 的價格上漲會帶來什麼影響。所以我認為你的計算大致正確。顯然，問題在於銷量會如何變化。目前我們看到的是，價格彈性比歷史水準要溫和，但我們需要看到價格上漲持續到明年。我們需要觀察放棄某些價格錨點會對消費者產生什麼影響，目前還是個未知數。不過正如我所說，就公司整體而言，我認為 2022 年的營收成長勢頭良好，而且我認為明年的營收成長也會遵循一定的規律。

So on Gum & Candy, maybe first on gum. And I think it was gum and World Travel Retail. But on gum, roughly, I would say, gum dropped to about 65% to 70% last year of what it was in 2019 because of mobility. I think for the total of '21, it's going to be roughly around 85%, maybe 90% of where it was in 2019, and then we expect that it will close that gap in 2022.

所以，關於口香糖和糖果，可能首先是口香糖。我認為口香糖和世界旅遊零售業的銷售量都出現了下滑。但就口香糖而言，我估計去年口香糖的銷量大約下降了2019年的65%到70%，這主要是由於流動性問題。我認為2021年全年銷量大約會恢復到2019年的85%到90%，然後我們預計到2022年，銷量將完全恢復到之前的水平。

Now in the beginning of the year, the recuperation was slower. Recently, we have seen an acceleration of the recuperation of gum. So we're talking about double-digit revenue year-to-date growth of gum and strong double-digit revenue growth in Q3. So year-to-date, on a 2-year CAGR, we're still negative high single digit. But as I said, the recovery is going faster. And then we're starting to see some markets, particularly China and Russia, where we now have a positive 2-year CAGR on gum.

年初時，口香糖市場的復甦速度較慢。但最近，我們看到口香糖市場的復甦速度加快。今年迄今為止，口香糖的營收實現了兩位數的成長，第三季更是實現了強勁的兩位數成長。因此，就過去兩年的複合年增長率而言，我們目前的成長率仍然為負個位數。但正如我所說，復甦速度正在加快。而且，我們開始看到一些市場，特別是中國和俄羅斯，口香糖市場的兩年複合年增長率已經轉正。

The emerging markets remain attractive for us. And the question is really on the developed markets, which is only 2% of our 2020 net revenue. And so that's really where we expect the recovery to be slowest.

新興市場對我們依然具有吸引力。真正的問題在於已開發市場，它僅占我們2020年淨收入的2%。因此，我們預期已開發市場的復甦速度將最為緩慢。

As it relates to World Travel Retail, that dropped almost to 0, I would say. It was probably at 5% of what it was before the pandemic. This year, we will probably get back to, depending a little bit what happens at the end of the year with travel, but maybe 65%, 70%. And then depending on what consumers decide to do as it relates to travel, that's the big unknown, we will, for sure, go up significantly next year. But I'm not quite sure that we will see the same amount of travel and, as a consequence, buying on travel as we saw in 2019.

就世界旅遊零售而言，可以說幾乎是跌至零。大概只有疫情前水準的5%。今年，我們可能會恢復到疫情前的水平，具體情況取決於年底旅遊業的狀況，但或許能達到65%到70%。而消費者在旅行方面的決定，這才是最大的未知數。可以肯定的是，明年肯定會大幅成長。但我並不確定我們能否看到像2019年那樣多的旅行，以及由此帶來的旅行相關消費。

So that's still a little bit up in the air. But we will get close to -- I think gum will be all the way back. But remember, gum was growing a lot in 2019, so back but no significant growth, and World Travel Retail close but not completely, we think.

所以目前情況還不太明朗。但我們會接近目標——我認為口香糖會完全恢復。但別忘了，口香糖在2019年成長迅猛，所以雖然會恢復，但不會大幅成長；世界旅遊零售市場也會接近目標，但我們認為不會完全恢復。

And we'll take our final question from Pamela Kaufman of Morgan Stanley.

最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉‧考夫曼。

How are you thinking about the level of investment needed to support the strong top line momentum that you've seen? And do you expect to increase brand investment further to support higher pricing? And if so, can you talk about which categories and geographies there might be greater investment behind?

您認為需要多少投資才能支撐目前強勁的營收成長動能？您是否計劃進一步增加品牌投資以支持更高的定價？如果計劃增加，能否談談哪些品類和地區可能會加大投資力度？

Yes. I can talk a little bit about the principles, and then maybe, Luca, you can go into more detail if needed. But in general, we believe that we want to outgrow our categories. And to outgrow our categories, our brands need to have more visibility, more support, more innovation than others. We believe that, that can be achieved with roughly, I would say, a 7% to 8% increase year-over-year of our A&C investment.

是的。我可以先簡單談談這些原則，然後盧卡，如果需要的話，你可以進一步闡述。但總的來說，我們希望超越現有品類。而要超越品類，我們的品牌需要比其他品牌擁有更高的知名度、更多的支援和更強的創新能力。我們相信，這可以透過每年增加約7%到8%的廣告和商業投資來實現。

And that fits into our long-term algorithm where our expectation is that half of the 4% plus growth that we want in gross profit year after year, that half of that gets reinvested. Not all of that goes into A&C. Some goes into overheads. A part goes into R&D. But overall, that's the thinking, and that allows for that roughly 7% to 8% increase. So it fits into the long-term algorithm.

這符合我們的長期發展策略，我們預期每年毛利成長4%以上，其中一半將用於再投資。並非所有再投資都用於廣告和廣告支出，一部分用於支付管理費用，一部分用於研發。但整體而言，這就是我們的思路，也正是這種思路使得毛利能夠達到約7%到8%的成長。因此，這符合我們的長期發展策略。

As it relates to pricing and increasing our investments, we're trying to maintain our algorithm. If we see we can get a better top line, we might do more flowing -- continuously flowing at 50% back into investment. This year, as an example, we have a double-digit increase in our A&C year-to-date, while we are doing the price increases that Luca talked about.

關於定價和增加投資，我們正在努力維持現有的演算法。如果我們發現能夠獲得更好的營收，我們可能會增加資金回流——持續將50%的收益再投資於專案。例如，今年迄今為止，我們的A&C（資產和成本）實現了兩位數的成長，同時我們也在進行盧卡提到的價格上漲。

Then the other movement that we're doing is within the A&C investment, we are moving more of the investment in working media. We've done that now for multiple years. So the investments are really compounding. There is an increase in overall A&C and then the increase in working media within A&C. And then we have also made big strides on the quality, the effectiveness and the ROI of our marketing.

此外，我們在廣告與傳播（A&C）投資方面也正在進行另一項調整，即增加對有效媒體的投資。這項調整已經持續多年，因此投資效益正在不斷累積。廣告與傳播的整體投入量有所增長，而有效媒體的投入也在增加。同時，我們在行銷的品質、效果和投資報酬率方面也取得了顯著進步。

If you talk about where do you want to do more, we have our local jewels, which we have given significantly more investment in the last 3 years. But we want to continue to do that more on the brands that we're already supporting and activate more brands. And then as it relates to markets where we would do that, probably the -- some of the markets where we are underrepresented, largely emerging markets. That's where we think we should do the biggest increases of our A&C because we still have the category to support and really build the category for the longer term. That's how we're thinking about it.

如果談到未來想在哪些方面加大投入，我們將重點放在本土品牌，過去三年我們已大幅增加對它們的投資。但我們也希望繼續加大對現有品牌的投入，並啟動更多品牌。至於具體市場，我們可能會在一些目前涵蓋不足的市場，尤其是新興市場，加大投入。我們認為應該在這些市場大幅增加廣告和消費的投入，因為我們仍需支持並長期發展這些品類。這就是我們的思路。

Not sure, Luca, if you want to add something.

盧卡，我不太確定你是否想補充什麼。

No. I think it has been a consistent theme, the one that we have been implementing in the company in terms of A&C investment. If I look back, I think since 2019, even despite fine-tuning the A&C line in 2020, given obviously COVID, we have been able to increase A&C, I think, versus 2018 by 25% if you look between, again, 2018 and where we are today.

不。我認為這一直是我們在公司A&C投資上一貫堅持的策略。回顧過去，我認為自2019年以來，即使在2020年考慮到新冠疫情的影響對A&C生產線進行了微調，我們仍然能夠將A&C投入增加，我認為，如果比較2018年至今的情況，我們目前的投入比2018年增長了25%。

And particularly on the working media, we have been improving quite a bit the situation about what we spend in that P&L line. And I would also say the quality of advertising and the mix of advertising is helping us improving the ROI quite a bit. And so I think that's one of the things that has made the model more sustainable for us. And I think when you look at volume growth, share gains, there is a strong linkage with these investments we have been making in global and local brands.

尤其是在媒體廣告方面，我們已經大幅改善了損益表中這項的支出狀況。我認為，廣告品質和廣告組合的提升也顯著提高了我們的投資報酬率。因此，我認為這是使我們的商業模式更具可持續性的關鍵因素之一。而且，我認為，銷售成長和市佔率提升都與我們對全球和本土品牌的投資密切相關。

And then can you just give an update on the white space opportunities that you're targeting and how you're leveraging the recent acquisitions to address these opportunities?

那麼，您能否簡要介紹一下您正在瞄準的市場空白機會，以及您如何利用最近的收購來抓住這些機會？

Sorry, yes. The white space opportunities for us are -- I mean, if you look at our building blocks for growth, the first 2 are pretty straightforward. It's make sure our categories keep on growing. We are big players in our category. Our category growth depends partly of us. Second, continue to increase our market share, and that gives us bigger growth.

是的，抱歉。對我們來說，市場空白機會在於——我的意思是，如果你看看我們成長的基石，前兩點非常明確。首先，確保我們的品類持續成長。我們是品類中的重要參與者，品類的成長部分取決於我們自己。其次，繼續提升我們的市場份額，這將帶來更大的成長。

Third, there is the channel expansion that we can do. We are not having the same market share in all channels, thinking about, for instance, online or digital commerce in the more developed markets. But we're also talking about numerical distribution in emerging markets. As I was saying in the prepared remarks, we're increasing China by 120,000 stores, in India by 80,000 stores, our presence this quarter alone.

第三，我們可以拓展通路。我們並非所有通路都擁有相同的市場份額，例如在較為發達的市場，我們在線上或數位商務領域就佔據了重要地位。但我們也關注新興市場的門市數量。正如我在事先準備好的發言稿中提到的，光是本季度，我們就將在中國新增12萬家門市，在印度新增8萬家門市。

So then on top of that, there's high growth segments within our categories. And so I'm thinking about well-being, thinking about premium. And those are some of the areas that we are underrepresented and that we should be really launching new products in there and using some of the acquisitions that we've been seeing to get in there. For instance, Grenade or Hu would fit in this category.

除此之外，我們的產品類別中還有一些高成長細分市場。例如健康領域和高端領域。這些領域是我們目前覆蓋不足的，我們應該在這些領域推出新產品，並利用我們先前的一些收購成果來拓展業務。例如，Grenade 或 Hu 就屬於這個類別。

Then we have geographic white spaces around the world, countries where we are not yet that present. And so we haven't done that many yet, although an acquisition like Chipita, which largely plays in East and Central Europe and some of the other emerging markets, obviously, will reinforce our presence. But they're largely in the same countries as we are or where we already have a smaller presence. But they certainly will give us more critical mass.

此外，我們在全球各地還有一些地理空白區域，也就是我們尚未充分涉足的國家。因此，我們目前收購的案例並不多，儘管像Chipita這樣的公司——其業務主要集中在東歐、中歐以及其他一些新興市場——顯然會增強我們的市場地位。但這些收購大多與我們已有的業務重合，或者我們已經在這些國家擁有較小的市場份額。不過，這些收購無疑會為我們帶來更大的規模優勢。

And then the last one is the close-in adjacencies, which are the bakery and the bar segment. And so Chipita fits -- or Give & Go fully fall into that sort of growth opportunity that we have. And so that's the last white space. So it's between channel, high-growth segments, geographical white spaces and close-in adjacencies. Those are the 4 big white spaces that we have.

最後一種是近鄰領域，也就是烘焙和酒吧細分市場。 Chipita 和 Give & Go 就完全符合我們面臨的這種成長機會。這就是最後一個空白市場。所以，通路、高成長細分市場、地理空白市場和近鄰領域這四大空白市場是我們面臨的主要市場空白。

And this does conclude...

至此，一切就結束了…

I think we've come to the end. Yes. Sorry, go ahead.

我想我們已經結束了。是的。抱歉，請繼續。

Yes. This does conclude our Q&A session. I'd like to return the call to you for any concluding remarks.

是的，問答環節到此結束。請您再給我回電話，說說您的總結性發言。

No. I think we've come clearly to the end. Thank you for your interest in the company. Happy to reply to more questions. Please contact Shep and Andre, and we will do whatever we can to help you out. And looking forward to talk to you at the end of the year to give you a full update of where we've ended '21 and give you our guidance for '22. Thank you.

不，我想我們已經徹底結束了。感謝您對公司的關注。如果您還有其他問題，我很樂意解答。請聯絡Shep和Andre，我們會盡力為您提供協助。期待在年底與您再次會面，向您全面報告2021年的業績，並展望2022年的發展方向。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's Mondelez Corporation's Q3 2021 Earnings Call. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a good day.

今天的億滋國際2021財年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開連線了。祝大家今天愉快。