億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International Fourth Quarter 2020 Year-End Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加億滋國際 2020 年第四季年終財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括億滋管理層的演講和問答環節。（操作員指示）我現在想將電話轉給億滋投資者關係副總裁 Shep Dunlap 先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides, which are available on our website.

下午好，感謝您加入我們。今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長 Dirk Van de Put；和我們的財務長盧卡·扎拉梅拉 (Luca Zaramella)。今天早些時候，我們發送了新聞稿和簡報幻燈片，這些內容可以在我們的網站上找到。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將對公司的績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們今天看待事物的方式。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱我們的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素，以了解有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳細資訊。

As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results. In addition, we provide our year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis unless otherwise noted. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

當我們今天討論我們的績效時，除非另有說明，否則我們將參考我們的非公認會計準則財務指標，這些指標針對我們的公認會計準則績效中包含的某些項目進行了調整。此外，除非另有說明，我們以固定匯率為基礎提供年成長。您可以在我們的收益報告和投影片簡報的後面找到可比較的 GAAP 指標以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調整表。

In today's call, Dirk will provide a business update, and then Luca will take you through the financials and our outlook. We'll close with Q&A.

在今天的電話會議中，德克將提供業務最新情況，然後盧卡將向您介紹財務狀況和我們的前景。我們將以問答結束。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dirk.

現在，我將把電話轉給德克。

Thank you, Shep, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. I am pleased to share our full year and Q4 results with you.

謝謝謝普，也謝謝大家今天加入電話會議。我很高興與您分享我們的全年和第四季度業績。

2020 was a successful year for Mondelez International, marked by strong performance even in a challenging external environment. In response to unprecedented conditions caused by COVID-19, we took decisive and swift actions to position the company for continued success in 2021 and beyond, and we delivered on all of our financial commitments for the year. I am proud of our achievements and particularly grateful for the efforts of our teams, including those on our front lines who helped us to achieve these milestones.

2020 年對億滋國際來說是成功的一年，即使在充滿挑戰的外部環境下也仍表現強勁。為了應對 COVID-19 造成的前所未有的情況，我們採取了果斷而迅速的行動，使公司能夠在 2021 年及以後繼續取得成功，並兌現了今年的所有財務承諾。我為我們的成就感到自豪，特別感謝我們團隊的努力，包括那些幫助我們實現這些里程碑的前線人員。

First of all, we sustained the top line momentum we have achieved since launching our strategy in 2018, delivering another year of 3% plus organic net revenue growth. This led to record market share gains as consumers chose our products and made us clear winners in our largest categories of biscuits and chocolate.

首先，我們維持了自 2018 年啟動策略以來所取得的營收勢頭，再次實現了 3% 以上的有機淨收入成長。隨著消費者選擇我們的產品，這導致了創紀錄的市場份額增長，並使我們在最大的餅乾和巧克力類別中成為明顯的贏家。

Despite COVID-19, we continued executing against our strategic growth agenda and increased investment across our business, in particular, in working media and capabilities like e-commerce. We added 2 very exciting bolt-on acquisitions, Give & Go and Hu, which give us more exposure to fast-growing snacking adjacencies. Our continued investments were supported by an effective cost mitigation program that offset many of the COVID-19-related costs and helped simplify our business.

儘管發生了新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情，我們仍繼續執行我們的策略性成長議程，並增加了整個業務的投資，特別是在工作媒體和電子商務等功能方面的投資。我們增加了 2 項非常令人興奮的補強收購，即 Give & Go 和 Hu，這讓我們有更多機會接觸到快速成長的零食產業。我們的持續投資得到了有效的成本緩解計劃的支持，該計劃抵消了許多與 COVID-19 相關的成本，並幫助簡化了我們的業務。

In spite of the increased investment in cost, we were able to grow operating income faster than revenue and faster than 2019 through volume leverage and cost discipline. We also delivered on our commitment to generate strong cash flow and returned $3.1 billion to shareholders.

儘管成本投資增加，但透過數量槓桿和成本控制，我們的營業收入成長速度仍快於收入成長，且快於 2019 年。我們也履行了產生強勁現金流的承諾，並向股東返還 31 億美元。

Not only was 2020 a strong financial year, we also made progress in other areas like ESG, where we delivered on our 2020 ESG goals and set ambitious new targets. We also enhanced the commitments of our existing D&I agenda; and of course, we prioritized the safety of our colleagues throughout the year.

2020 年不僅是個強勁的財政年度，我們在 ESG 等其他領域也取得了進展，我們實現了 2020 年 ESG 目標並設定了雄心勃勃的新目標。我們也加強了現有 D&I 議程的承諾；當然，我們全年都將同事的安全放在首位。

Overall, I believe we are very well positioned to sustain growth now and into the future. We entered 2021 with good momentum, record share gains and as a more efficient organization as a result of our Emerge Stronger initiatives. As such, for 2021, we expect our results to be in line with our long-term financial targets.

總的來說，我相信我們處於非常有利的位置，可以維持現在和未來的成長。由於我們採取了「更強」舉措，我們以良好的勢頭進入 2021 年，份額增長創紀錄，並成為一個更有效率的組織。因此，我們預計 2021 年的業績將符合我們的長期財務目標。

On Slide 5, let me walk you through the headlines of our financial results. I'll focus on the full year figures. Our organic net revenue growth was 3.7%. Not only did we show strong growth. We also beat the competition thanks to the strength of our brands with consumers. Our adjusted gross profit grew 3.6% and adjusted operating income grew 4.6%, leading to an adjusted EPS growth of 6.5%. And as mentioned, free cash flow generation was strong at $3.1 billion versus $3 billion in 2019. This is a strong set of results, a clear demonstration of the strength of our organization and the success of our growth strategy even during severe external challenges.

在投影片 5 上，讓我向您介紹我們財務表現的頭條新聞。我將重點放在全年數據。我們的有機淨收入成長率為 3.7%。我們不僅表現出強勁的成長。憑藉我們品牌在消費者中的影響力，我們也擊敗了競爭對手。調整後毛利成長 3.6%，調整後營業收入成長 4.6%，調整後每股盈餘成長 6.5%。如前所述，自由現金流產生強勁，達到 31 億美元，而 2019 年為 30 億美元。這是一系列強勁的成果，清楚地展示了我們組織的實力以及即使在嚴峻的外部挑戰下我們的成長策略也取得了成功。

Turning to Slide 6. I would like to highlight several of the strategic actions we took to enable our business to emerge stronger from COVID-19. As the extent of the pandemic became clear, we quickly moved to mitigate incremental COVID-related costs and took the opportunity to significantly increase liquidity. We prioritized our capital expenditure behind projects with the highest return potential. We faced costs relating to lockdowns, supply chain disruptions, adaptations to our ways of working as well as the need for increased PPE. But we were able to offset the majority of these costs through savings across areas like overheads, trade spend and nonworking media.

轉向投影片 6。我想強調我們為使我們的業務在 COVID-19 影響下變得更加強大而採取的幾項策略行動。隨著疫情的嚴重程度逐漸明朗，我們迅速採取行動，減輕與新冠病毒相關的增加成本，並藉此機會大幅增加流動性。我們優先考慮具有最高回報潛力的項目的資本支出。我們面臨與封鎖、供應鏈中斷、工作方式調整、增加個人防護裝備需求相關的成本。但我們能夠透過管理費用、貿易支出和非工作媒體等領域的節省來抵消大部分成本。

We also took the opportunity to simplify our operations, reducing the number of low-turn SKUs we have in the portfolio, work that will continue into 2021. And finally, to maintain our top line momentum and brand strength, we invested more in working media while realizing material media efficiencies.

我們也藉此機會簡化了運營，減少了產品組合中低週轉 SKU 的數量，這項工作將持續到 2021 年。最後，為了保持我們的營收動能和品牌實力，我們在工作媒體上進行了更多投資，同時實現了實體媒體效率。

Our swift reaction to COVID-19 was a real point of difference for us in 2020. Our teams were focused and agile in their response. We adjusted plans and accelerated some of our strategic initiatives, all of which set us up for success.

我們對 COVID-19 的快速反應是 2020 年我們真正的不同。我們的團隊反應專注且敏捷。我們調整了計劃並加快了一些策略舉措，所有這些都為我們的成功奠定了基礎。

Turning to Slide 7. We have remained focused on our sustainability commitments and our approach to governance. In May 2020, we held our first Snacking Made Right investor call, coinciding with the release of our Snacking Made Right report. We've also engaged with many investors, shareholders and stakeholders on ESG topics more than ever before.

轉向投影片 7。我們仍然專注於我們的永續發展承諾和治理方法。2020 年 5 月，我們舉行了第一次 Snacking Made Right 投資者電話會議，同時發布了 Snacking Made Right 報告。我們也比以往任何時候都更常與許多投資者、股東和利害關係人就 ESG 主題進行互動。

Looking across our ESG agenda, we focus on critical areas like minimizing our environmental impact, which involves using our resources like water and energy more efficiently as well as reducing waste and emissions. We also promote sustainable ingredients like wheat and cocoa, where we seek to build a more resilient supply chain. Generating a positive social impact is another priority, where we work to foster more inclusion and opportunity with local communities.

縱觀我們的 ESG 議程，我們重點關注關鍵領域，例如最大限度地減少對環境的影響，其中涉及更有效地使用水和能源等資源以及減少廢物和排放。我們也推廣小麥和可可等永續原料，力求建立更具彈性的供應鏈。產生積極的社會影響是另一個優先事項，我們致力於促進當地社區的更多包容性和機會。

Our key sustainability achievements for the year include meeting all of our 2020 CO2 emissions and waste reduction goals; continued work in collaboration on advancing a more sustainable future for plastics; continued investment in our Cocoa Life program, our $400 million commitment to sustainable cocoa, including efforts to prevent child labor; and increased traceability and forest monitoring commitments with our palm oil suppliers.

我們今年的主要永續發展成就包括實現 2020 年所有二氧化碳排放和廢棄物減少目標；繼續合作推動塑膠更永續的未來；繼續投資我們的 Cocoa Life 計劃，我們對可持續可可的 4 億美元承諾，包括努力防止童工；並加強與棕櫚油供應商的可追溯性和森林監測承諾。

And in terms of social impact as an organization, I am proud of our work in 2 areas. We established new multiyear global diversity and inclusion commitments, investing in global D&I leadership as well as plans and programs for our colleagues and communities in which we operate. We also donated nearly 30 million in COVID relief efforts around the world. This was a year where the potential was evident for a company like ours to make an even more positive impact on the world, and I'm glad that we made our contribution.

就組織的社會影響而言，我對我們在兩個領域的工作感到自豪。我們制定了新的多年全球多元化和包容性承諾，投資於全球 D&I 領導力以及為我們的同事和我們所在社區制定的計劃和項目。我們也為世界各地的新冠疫情救援工作捐贈了近 3,000 萬美元。今年，像我們這樣的公司顯然有潛力對世界產生更積極的影響，我很高興我們做出了貢獻。

Finally, Slide 8. Let me share a little more color on our recently announced acquisition of Hu. We're excited to fully welcome them onboard following our minority investment in 2019. This is a fast-growing, well-being snacking brand with a portfolio of on-trend products. Hu's vegan, paleo-inspired chocolate will be familiar to many in the United States. They are a leader in specialty and premium retailers already. In addition to chocolate products, they have recently expanded into crackers and have plans to enter other snacking adjacencies. Overall, the business is growing high double digits, and there's a clear opportunity to scale the business using our distribution and capabilities. Hu is a great brand and a great fit in our portfolio, bringing us interesting opportunities in the key well-being/premium areas.

最後，幻燈片 8。讓我分享我們最近宣布的收購 Hu 的更多資訊。在 2019 年進行少數股權投資後，我們非常高興地歡迎他們的加入。這是一個快速發展的健康零食品牌，擁有一系列流行產品。胡先生的純素古式巧克力對許多美國人來說都很熟悉。他們已經是專業和高端零售商的領導者。除了巧克力產品外，他們最近還擴展到餅乾領域，並計劃進入其他零食領域。總體而言，該業務正在以兩位數的速度成長，並且顯然有機會利用我們的分銷和能力來擴展業務。Hu 是一個很棒的品牌，非常適合我們的產品組合，為我們在關鍵的福祉/高端領域帶來了有趣的機會。

With that, I will hand to Luca for more details on our financial performance.

接下來，我將向盧卡詢問有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Dirk, and good afternoon, everyone. Our 2020 performance was strong in terms of revenue growth, share gains, profitability and free cash flow. We delivered volume-led revenue growth for the year and the quarter of plus 3.7% and plus 3.2%, respectively. Developed markets grew 4.5% for the year and 2.8% for the quarter, underpinned by strong execution and share gains. Emerging markets increased 2.3% for the year, which includes a mid-single-digit decline experienced during the height of COVID disruptions. For the quarter, we posted growth of 4.1%.

謝謝你，德克，大家下午好。我們 2020 年的業績在營收成長、股票收益、獲利能力和自由現金流方面表現強勁。我們全年和本季實現了以銷量為主導的收入成長，分別成長了 3.7% 和 3.2%。由於強勁的執行力和份額成長，已開發市場全年成長 4.5%，本季成長 2.8%。新興市場今年成長了 2.3%，其中包括在新冠肺炎疫情最嚴重期間出現的中個位數下降。本季度，我們公佈了 4.1% 的成長。

Some additional color on Q4. In developed markets, we continue to see elevated consumption for our biscuits category in North America, albeit growth has slowed down versus first half. In Europe, we delivered strong Q4 in both chocolate and biscuits, consistent with Q3. In emerging markets, we delivered good growth across the majority of our revenue base, including double-digit growth in Eastern Europe and mid-single-digit growth in AMEA emerging markets.

Q4 上有一些額外的顏色。在已開發市場，我們繼續看到北美餅乾類別的消費量增加，儘管成長較上半年放緩。在歐洲，我們第四季的巧克力和餅乾業務表現強勁，與第三季一致。在新興市場，我們的大部分收入基礎都實現了良好的成長，包括東歐的兩位數成長和 AMEA 新興市場的中個位數成長。

A small group of markets continue to face economic challenges and headwinds related to high-end gum and candy exposure. This is predominantly in Latin America, which grew just over 1% in Q4. Overall, we continue to feel good about Emerging Markets and their future prospects. And in general, they have recovered quite well after the lockdown impact in Q2.

一小部分市場繼續面臨與高端口香糖和糖果相關的經濟挑戰和阻力。這主要是在拉丁美洲，第四季成長率略高於 1%。總體而言，我們仍然對新興市場及其未來前景感到樂觀。總的來說，在第二季的封鎖影響之後，它們已經恢復得很好。

Now on Slide 11 and portfolio performance. This is an important page as it shows how well the vast majority of our business is performing during the pandemic. The strength of biscuits and chocolate, meals and powder beverages shows that we have an advantaged portfolio with a good geographical footprint and that our execution resulting in meaningful share gains has amplified growth above category rates.

現在介紹投影片 11 和投資組合表現。這是一個重要的頁面，因為它顯示了我們絕大多數業務在疫情期間的表現如何。餅乾和巧克力、膳食和粉末飲料的實力表明，我們擁有優勢的產品組合和良好的地理足跡，而且我們的執行力帶來了有意義的份額收益，使增長率高於類別增長率。

Biscuits grew nearly 9% for the year and 7% for the quarter. North America was a big growth driver due to elevated demand and brand investment. Europe and AMEA also delivered strong Q4 results. Oreo was a clear standout worldwide, growing double digits, and many local jewels, too, posted high growth this year and increased penetration. Chocolate grew more than 3% for the year and 5% for the quarter. This includes nearly 2 points of headwinds from world travel retail in the full year and the negative impact of lockdowns in Q2. But overall, this is a great category to be in; and on top, our brands continue to perform very well, both in DMs and EMs and continue to gain share.

餅乾全年成長近 9%，本季成長 7%。由於需求和品牌投資的增加，北美是一個巨大的成長動力。歐洲和 AMEA 也發布了強勁的第四季業績。奧利奧在全球範圍內表現突出，增長了兩位數，許多本地珠寶今年也實現了高增長並提高了滲透率。巧克力全年成長率超過 3%，本季成長率超過 5%。這包括全年來自世界旅遊零售業的近2個百分點的阻力以及第二季封鎖的負面影響。但總的來說，這是一個很好的類別。最重要的是，我們的品牌在直接市場和新興市場中繼續表現出色，並繼續獲得份額。

Our overall growth rate is negatively impacted by gum and candy and continues to be challenged by reduced on-the-go consumption and mobility restrictions. While we did not see material improvement in Q4 versus Q3, we do expect gradual category improvement through 2021, but we are prudent in terms of those expectations.

我們的整體成長率受到口香糖和糖果的負面影響，並繼續受到移動消費減少和流動性限制的挑戰。雖然我們沒有看到第四季度與第三季相比出現實質改善，但我們確實預計到 2021 年類別會逐步改善，但我們對這些預期持謹慎態度。

Now let's review our market and share performance on Slide 12. Through consistent execution, a significant step-up in working media and portfolio of trusted global and local brands, we posted great share results throughout the year, including in the fourth quarter. For the year, we held or gained share in 80% of our revenue base, up from 75% last year. Our largest categories delivered strongly as we held or gained share in 90% of our biscuits revenue base and 80% of our chocolate revenue base. Notable share gainers for the year included U.S., China and Russia biscuits; U.K., Russia and Australia chocolate; and China gum.

現在讓我們回顧一下投影片 12 上的市場和股票表現。透過一致的執行、工作媒體以及值得信賴的全球和本地品牌組合的顯著提升，我們全年（包括第四季度）公佈了出色的份額結果。今年，我們持有或增加了 80% 的收入份額，高於去年的 75%。我們最大的品類表現強勁，佔或獲得了 90% 的餅乾收入基礎和 80% 的巧克力收入基礎份額。今年值得注意的份額增長包括美國、中國和俄羅斯餅乾；英國、俄羅斯和澳洲巧克力；和中國膠。

Profitability performance was strong for the year and quarter, especially in light of approximately $250 million of COVID-related costs. Gross profit growth for the year and quarter was driven by strong volume leverage and cost mitigation programs. On the flip side, lower demand in world travel retail and gum resulted in unfavorable mix. Specifically for Q4, a lag between commodities and ForEx-related inflation and implementation of pricing weighed on the GP line. Overall, we feel good about our profitability and the substantial investments we have made in the business to sustain our growth momentum. including double-digit increases in working media to further support our brands and drive our category.

本年度和本季的獲利表現強勁，尤其是考慮到約 2.5 億美元的新冠肺炎相關成本。本年度和本季的毛利成長是由強勁的銷售槓桿和成本削減計劃推動的。另一方面，世界旅遊零售和口香糖的需求下降導致了不利的組合。特別是第四季度，大宗商品和外匯相關通膨之間的滯後以及定價的實施對毛利率造成了壓力。總體而言，我們對我們的盈利能力以及為維持成長勢頭而在業務中進行的大量投資感到滿意。包括工作媒體的兩位數成長，以進一步支持我們的品牌並推動我們的類別。

Turning to regional performance on Slide 14. North America grew 8.6% for the full year and 4.5% in Q4 driven by elevated biscuit consumption and strong share gains. Share gains were supported by significant working media investments and strong DSD execution. Gum was down double digits. North America OI grew more than 19% for the year and nearly 15% during the quarter. Volume leverage, effective pricing, disciplined overhead management and waste reduction drove this performance despite significant COVID-related costs.

轉向幻燈片 14 上的區域表現。在餅乾消費增加和強勁的份額增長的推動下，北美地區全年增長 8.6%，第四季度增長 4.5%。大量的工作媒體投資和強大的 DSD 執行支持了股價上漲。口香糖下跌了兩位數。北美 OI 全年成長超過 19%，本季成長近 15%。儘管與新冠病毒相關的成本很高，但銷售槓桿、有效的定價、嚴格的間接費用管理和減少浪費推動了這一業績。

Europe grew 2.5% for the year and 3% during the fourth quarter. Our Q4 results were driven by strength across our major markets, including the U.K., France, Germany and Russia, resulting in significant share gains. Strong execution and activations around the Christmas season helped us finish the year positively. We continue to grow our chocolate business, which was up mid-single digits for the year despite the 3 point world travel retail headwind. Biscuits and meals categories also turned in a strong performance. OI dollar growth was slightly negative for the year driven by unfavorable mix and COVID cost. That said, trends have improved, and we posted nearly 6% OI growth in Q4.

歐洲全年經濟成長 2.5%，第四季成長 3%。我們第四季的業績受到英國、法國、德國和俄羅斯等主要市場實力的推動，導致份額大幅成長。聖誕節期間的強有力的執行和活動幫助我們積極地完成了這一年。我們繼續發展我們的巧克力業務，儘管世界旅遊零售業面臨 3 個百分點的逆風，但今年巧克力業務仍實現了中位數成長。餅乾和膳食類別也表現強勁。由於不利的組合和新冠疫情成本，今年 OI 美元成長略有負值。儘管如此，趨勢有所改善，第四季度 OI 成長了近 6%。

AMEA grew 1.7% for the year and 3% for the quarter, showing that the recovery is sustaining across much of the region. India grew low single digit in the year after declining double digits in Q2 as a result of severe lockdowns. The country is performing well with double-digit growth in Q4 and the second half behind strong execution, share gains and investments. We continue to lead the growth of chocolate in India while expanding our biscuit platform. We are very pleased with the performance of this country.

AMEA 全年成長率為 1.7%，本季成長率為 3%，顯示該地區大部分地區正在持續復甦。由於嚴格的封鎖，印度在第二季出現兩位數下降後，今年的成長幅度較低。該國表現良好，第四季度和下半年實現了兩位數成長，這得益於強勁的執行力、股票收益和投資。我們繼續引領印度巧克力的成長，同時擴大我們的餅乾平台。我們對這個國家的表現感到非常滿意。

China grew high single digits for the year and quarter driven by continuous share gains in both biscuits and gum. Strength in Australia chocolate, including share gains, helped drive solid growth in AMEA developed markets for the year. AMEA increased OI dollars by nearly 5% for the year due to strong leverage in the back half. This growth includes the impact of significant increases in A&C and route-to-market investment.

在餅乾和口香糖市場份額持續成長的推動下，中國在本年度和本季實現了高個位數成長。澳洲巧克力的強勢，包括份額成長，幫助推動了 AMEA 已開發市場今年的穩健成長。由於下半年的槓桿作用強勁，AMEA 今年的 OI 美元增加了近 5%。這一增長包括 A&C 和市場投資大幅增長的影響。

Latin America grew slightly for the year and just over 1% for the quarter. Excluding Argentina, the region declined low single digits in Q4. Given gum and Halls were over 25% of the business before the pandemic, Latin America is the most impacted by lockdowns for both top and bottom line. Brazil posted low single-digit growth for the year and mid-single-digit growth for the quarter. Mexico declined high single digits for the year and low double digits for the quarter. WACAM declined low double digits for the year and the quarter, both due to the weakness of the gum and candy market. Adjusted OI dollars in Latin America declined 33% for the year and 66% for the quarter, primarily due to scale losses in the gum and candy category as well as timing of the commodities and ForEx pipeline versus pricing. As we expect some improvements in the gum and candy business as well as better pricing net of costs, profitability for the region should improve beginning in Q1. We have invested more in working media in Q4 and for the year despite profit pressure.

拉丁美洲全年略有成長，本季略高於 1%。不包括阿根廷，該地區第四季出現低個位數下降。鑑於疫情爆發前口香糖和 Halls 業務佔業務量的 25% 以上，拉丁美洲是受收入和利潤封鎖影響最大的地區。巴西全年實現低個位數成長，本季實現中個位數成長。墨西哥全年的跌幅較高，但本季的跌幅較低，為兩位數。由於口香糖和糖果市場疲軟，WACAM 今年和本季的業績均出現低兩位數下滑。拉丁美洲調整後的 OI 美元全年下降 33%，本季下降 66%，主要是由於口香糖和糖果類別的規模損失以及大宗商品和外匯管道與定價的時機安排。由於我們預計口香糖和糖果業務會有所改善，並且扣除成本後的定價會更好，因此該地區的盈利能力應該會在第一季開始改善。儘管利潤面臨壓力，我們在第四季和今年對工作媒體進行了更多投資。

Moving to EPS. Full year EPS grew 6.5%. This growth primarily reflects stable operating gains, mostly driven by strong revenue results.

轉向每股收益。全年每股收益成長 6.5%。這一成長主要反映了穩定的營運收益，而這主要是由強勁的收入表現所推動的。

Now on Slide 19. We delivered full year free cash flow of $3.1 billion. We continue to put great focus on this area and feel very good about the progress we are making.

現在在投影片 19 上。我們全年的自由現金流為 31 億美元。我們繼續高度關注這一領域，並對我們所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

Turning to Slide 20. We returned $3.1 billion to shareholders for the year This includes an 11% increase in our dividend rate and reinstating share repurchases in November after a temporary pause related to COVID volatility. We were also active in the debt capital market, refinancing more than $7 billion at attractive rates while significantly expanding our debt average maturity.

轉向投影片 20。我們全年向股東返還 31 億美元，包括將股息率提高 11%，並在 11 月因新冠疫情波動後恢復股票回購。我們也活躍於債務資本市場，以有吸引力的利率再融資超過 70 億美元，同時顯著延長了我們的債務平均期限。

Now let me provide some details around our 2021 outlook. At a high level, we expect a non-algorithm year in terms of our financial outlook. We expect organic net revenue growth of 3% plus. This is predicated on the expectations that we retain our share gains and continue to invest behind working media and marketing and sales capabilities to support our brands and overcome some of the macro weaknesses we are experiencing in a number of our smaller markets. Biscuits and chocolate, from what we see today, should continue to do well in 2021. But we will be lapping some elevated growth in 2020, particularly in developed markets and for biscuits.

現在讓我提供有關 2021 年展望的一些詳細資訊。在較高層面上，我們預期財務前景將是非演算法的一年。我們預計有機淨收入將成長 3% 以上。這是基於這樣的預期：我們保留我們的份額收益，並繼續投資於工作媒體、行銷和銷售能力，以支持我們的品牌並克服我們在許多較小市場中遇到的一些宏觀弱點。從我們今天的情況來看，餅乾和巧克力在 2021 年應該會繼續表現良好。但我們將在 2020 年實現一些高速成長，特別是在已開發市場和餅乾領域。

On the flip side, there should be some recovery of the categories and countries mostly impacted by COVID. We have been prudent in our assumptions, mostly for gum, as we expect that category to recover more slowly.

另一方面，受新冠疫情影響最大的類別和國家應該會出現一些復甦。我們對假設持謹慎態度，主要是針對口香糖，因為我們預期該類別的復甦速度會更慢。

We usually do not provide quarterly guidance, but given Q1 last year was the strongest quarter, we do expect a slower growth rate in Q1 2021. Overall, for 2021, our plan is to deliver high-quality growth to beat category dynamics by continue to winning share.

我們通常不提供季度指引，但鑑於去年第一季是最強勁的季度，我們預計 2021 年第一季的成長率將會放緩。整體而言，2021 年我們的計畫是實現高品質成長，透過持續贏得市場份額來超越品類動態。

We expect EPS growth in the high single-digit range. This outlook implies continued growth of gross profit dollars, volume leverage and improved revenue growth management. These outlooks also reflect a step-up in commodity and transportation inflation as well as transactional ForEx headwinds in certain markets. Despite our expectation that COVID costs will subside in 2021 and our Emerge Stronger initiatives will deliver the majority of their benefits, we will reinvest the upside to sustain our share gains and to weather a more recessionary environment. For Q1, we will still face some headwinds in terms of mix impact on profit and price net of cost dynamics. That should improve throughout 2021 as pricing is coming in full effect.

我們預計每股收益成長將在高個位數範圍內。這一前景意味著毛利、銷售槓桿的持續成長和收入成長管理的改善。這些前景也反映出商品和運輸通膨的加劇以及某些市場的外匯交易阻力。儘管我們預計新冠疫情成本將在 2021 年消退，並且我們的「更強」計劃將帶來大部分好處，但我們仍將重新投資收益，以維持我們的份額增長並應對更加衰退的環境。對於第一季度，我們仍將面臨一些不利因素，即對利潤和扣除成本動態的價格的混合影響。隨著定價全面生效，這種情況在 2021 年將會有所改善。

With respect to free cash flow, we expect to generate $3 billion plus. This outlook includes the deferred cash tax impact resulting from the participation in the primary offerings of JDE Peet's last year. Headwinds for coffee-related taxes is estimated to be approximately $400 million. In this outlook, we also expect an adjusted effective tax rate in the low to mid-20s based on what we know today, interest expenses of approximately $375 million and share repurchases of approximately $2 billion.

就自由現金流而言，我們預計將產生 30 億美元以上。這一前景包括因參與 JDE Peet's 去年的首次公開發行而產生的遞延現金稅影響。咖啡相關稅收的不利因素估計約為 4 億美元。根據目前的情況，我們也預期調整後的有效稅率將在 20 多歲左右，利息支出約為 3.75 億美元，股票回購約 20 億美元。

With that, let's open the line for questions.

接下來，讓我們打開提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾（Andrew Lazar）。

Two-part question if I could. First, maybe, Dirk, if you could describe maybe some of the key puts and takes that you see regarding the 3% plus organic sales growth guidance for '21. I'm really just trying to get a sense for level of visibility and maybe if there is some flex there given how dynamic the environment remains? And then -- and secondly, with respect to Mondelez lapping some of the significant COVID costs of last year and benefiting from the initiatives and the accelerated initiatives that you've talked about, I guess, would you see room for a potential upside to the high single-digit constant FX EPS growth guidance? And if not, just curious what the offsets might be.

如果可以的話，分為兩部分的問題。首先，德克，您能否描述您所看到的關於 21 年 3% 以上的有機銷售成長指導的一些關鍵看跌期權和採取的措施。我真的只是想了解可見性水平，考慮到環境仍然保持動態，也許那裡有一些彈性？其次，關於億滋國際去年承擔了一些重大的新冠疫情成本，並從您所談論的舉措和加速舉措中受益，我想您是否會看到潛在上漲的空間？高個位數的恆定外匯每股收益增長指引？如果沒有，只是好奇偏移量可能是什麼。

Okay. All right. Thanks, Andrew. So the 3% plus for next year, the first thing that we want to keep in mind is that it's very difficult to predict what's going to happen. While I think we delivered quite nicely on our financial commitments in 2020, under the surface, there was a lot of puts and takes. And it looks like that environment, at least for the first half, will continue. So it's very early in the year. We will see what happens with the vaccines and the mobility of the consumer and the at-home consumption in emerging markets. So we don't want to get ahead of ourselves. We do feel confident enough to say that this will be a third consecutive year of delivering on algorithm. And as you might remember, that is a significantly step-up from what it was before 2018.

好的。好的。謝謝，安德魯。因此，對於明年的 3% 以上，我們首先要記住的是，很難預測會發生什麼。雖然我認為我們在 2020 年很好地履行了我們的財務承諾，但在表面之下，還是有很多的調整和調整。看起來這種環境，至少在上半年，會持續下去。所以今年還很早。我們將看看疫苗、消費者的流動性以及新興市場的家庭消費會發生什麼。所以我們不想超越自己。我們確實有足夠的信心說，這將是連續第三年交付演算法。您可能還記得，與 2018 年之前相比，這是一個顯著的進步。

If I break it down, as Andrew asked, the tailwinds that we see is -- first of all, the biscuits and chocolate categories are performing very well. And on top of that, we have broad-based significant share gains. So despite lapping that in 2020, we believe the categories will continue to perform well and that we will still continue to gain market share.

如果我把它分解，正如安德魯所問的那樣，我們看到的順風車是——首先，餅乾和巧克力類別表現得非常好。最重要的是，我們的股票收益廣泛且顯著。因此，儘管 2020 年會出現這種情況，但我們相信這些類別將繼續表現良好，並且我們仍將繼續獲得市場份額。

The second tailwind I would mention is that we have very solid momentum going into '21. Our H2 growth rate was above 3%, and so we see that continuing. In H2, we also invested quite heavily. That would be the third tailwind for me, with a big step-up in working media. We are going to continue to do that in 2021, so that should also give us a push. And then, yes, we can't neglect that we will be lapping a weak year in gum and candy, in world travel retail in some of the smaller emerging markets. So we believe that, that will help us also.

我要提到的第二個順風車是我們進入 21 年的勢頭非常強勁。我們的下半年成長率超過 3%，因此我們認為這種情況會持續下去。下半年我們也投入了相當大的資金。這對我來說將是第三個順風車，在工作媒體方面取得了巨大的進步。我們將在 2021 年繼續這樣做，因此這也將為我們帶來推動力。然後，是的，我們不能忽視，口香糖和糖果以及一些較小的新興市場的世界旅遊零售業將經歷疲軟的一年。所以我們相信，這也會對我們有幫助。

As it relates to headwinds that we will see, I would separate them in geographies, channels and categories. To start with the categories, for us, it's about the gum category and how fast that category will come back. It's largely based on mobility of the consumer. We haven't seen much movement in the second half of the year, so we are not assuming that there will be a big movement in the first half of next year -- or this year, sorry. So we want to plan prudently there.

由於它與我們將看到的不利因素有關，因此我將它們按地理位置、頻道和類別分開。首先從類別開始，對我們來說，這是關於口香糖類別以及該類別回歸的速度。它主要基於消費者的流動性。我們在今年下半年沒有看到太大的變動，因此我們不認為明年上半年或今年會有大的變動，抱歉。所以我們要謹慎規劃。

As it relates to channels, it's about world travel retail and on-the-go consumption. And for the time being, we've also assumed that, in the first half of the year, that is not going to come back at a very high rate. And then geographies, we feel that the BRIC markets and other larger emerging markets are performing well, and we see them quite nicely coming back in Q4. But there are some smaller markets like Mexico, WACAM, North Africa, where we will likely be challenged for a while longer, largely because they have a big gum business. So I would say, at this stage, we feel comfortable with 3% plus. We will see how the situation evolves, but we want to be -- we don't want to get ahead of ourselves and see how the first quarter comes along.

當它與通路相關時，它與世界旅遊零售和行動消費有關。目前，我們也假設，今年上半年，這種情況不會以很高的速度恢復。然後是地域，我們認為金磚四國市場和其他較大的新興市場表現良好，我們看到它們在第四季度恢復得很好。但還有一些較小的市場，如墨西哥、WACAM、北非，我們可能會在這些市場面臨更長的挑戰，主要是因為他們擁有龐大的口香糖業務。所以我想說，在這個階段，我們對 3% 以上感到滿意。我們將看看情況如何發展，但我們希望——我們不想超前地看看第一季的情況如何。

The second question, I might hand over to -- I might -- thank you, Andrew. The second question, I'm going to hand over to Luca about EPS and what we see there.

第二個問題，我可能會交給──我可能──謝謝你，安德魯。第二個問題，我將向 Luca 介紹 EPS 以及我們在那裡看到的情況。

Yes. Thank you. Thank you, Dirk. So maybe let me step back for a second and give you the key puts and takes on the profitability line. We count in 2021 on continued volume growth and the leverage effect that is associated with that. You remember that in our algorithm, volume is, together with pricing, a critical component. We want to continue to be disciplined in our pricing approach, and we will leverage all elements of what we call revenue growth management to offset what is a relatively higher cost inflation than what we saw in 2020. I said quite a few times that inflation in 2021 will not be materially different than previous years, but it is moderately higher than what we saw before.

是的。謝謝。謝謝你，德克。因此，也許讓我退後一步，為您介紹盈利能力方面的關鍵看跌期權和認購期權。我們預計 2021 年銷售量將持續成長以及與之相關的槓桿效應。您還記得，在我們的演算法中，數量和定價都是關鍵組成部分。我們希望繼續嚴格定價方法，並將利用我們所謂的收入成長管理的所有要素來抵消比 2020 年相對較高的成本通膨。我多次說過，2021年的通膨與往年不會有太大不同，但會比我們之前看到的略高一些。

And there are certain peaks around currencies, commodities. I mentioned a few times, cocoa grains are experiencing cost spikes and certain transportation costs and packaging. So we are good for most part of the exposure that is well covered. So I don't expect this situation to spiral out of control, but reality is there is a little bit of more cost pressure.

貨幣和大宗商品也存在一定的高峰。我曾多次提到，可可豆的成本正在飆升，以及某些運輸和包裝成本。因此，我們對大部分被很好覆蓋的暴露部分都有好處。因此，我預期這種情況不會失控，但現實是成本壓力更大。

On the other cost lines, we will continue to deliver productivities in line with what we have seen in the last couple of years. COVID costs will be more moderate. In 2021, we called out that there will be roughly 1/3 of what we incurred in 2020. And most of the Emerge Stronger benefits will carry through 2021. The degree of freedom, so to speak, Andrew, is against investment. And whether we deliver better profit, we will take that upside, and we expect to invest even on top of what we have at the current level into 2021 as we really want to sustain share gains and make strides into the strategic agenda that we have.

在其他成本方面，我們將繼續提供與過去幾年一致的生產力。新冠疫情的成本將會更加適中。2021 年，我們提出大約是 2020 年的 1/3。Emerge Stronger 的大部分好處將持續到 2021 年。安德魯，可以說，自由度是反對投資的。無論我們能否實現更好的利潤，我們都會抓住這一機遇，並且我們預計到2021 年將在現有水平的基礎上進行投資，因為我們確實希望維持份額收益並在我們的戰略議程上取得進展。

On tax and interest, I think we have been fair in terms of assumptions, and hopefully, they were clear. So I think high single-digit EPS is what we're going to get. I think importantly, on cash flow, just to round up the answer, we have to pay some taxes related to coffee transactions. And what we call a $3-plus billion is actually an underlying free cash flow that is roundabout $3.5 billion, so good numbers also there that clearly rely on profitability and continued working capital management.

關於稅收和利息，我認為我們的假設是公平的，希望它們是明確的。所以我認為我們將獲得高個位數的每股盈餘。我認為重要的是，在現金流方面，為了總結答案，我們必須繳納一些與咖啡交易相關的稅。我們所說的超過 30 億美元實際上是大約 35 億美元的潛在自由現金流，因此顯然依賴盈利能力和持續營運資本管理的良好數字也存在。

The next question is from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

I wanted to ask about the guidance about -- or regarding currency being a $0.10 tailwind to the bottom line this year. I just wanted to make sure I understood, is that $0.10 what you're expecting to flow all the way through to the bottom line? Is that the maximum possible and you may reinvest some of that? I just wanted to get a better sense of how we should think about modeling that just given your history of sort of reinvesting those additional earnings, so to speak.

我想詢問有關貨幣對今年利潤的 0.10 美元順風的指導。我只是想確保我明白，這 0.10 美元是你期望一直流到底線的嗎？這是最大可能的金額嗎？您可以將其中的一部分進行再投資嗎？我只是想更了解我們應該如何考慮建模，可以這麼說，考慮到您對這些額外收入進行再投資的歷史。

Yes. I'll start. And it is translation, and it is based on current spot rates. So whether they stay here or they improve or they worsen, we are not going to change our stance on the investment posture. At this point in time, $0.10 is pure upside to EPS.

是的。我開始吧。這是換算，並且是基於當前的即期匯率。因此，無論他們留在這裡、改善或惡化，我們都不會改變我們對投資態勢的立場。目前，0.10 美元對於 EPS 來說是純粹的上漲空間。

Okay. I'll follow up offline on that one. And then my second question is, I was a little surprised to see the guidance for $2 billion in share repo. I know that's flexible. But you do have, I think, $3.5 billion on the balance sheet. You're expecting to generate another $3 billion. Why shouldn't we look for a little bit more aggressive buyback in 2021 than what that $2 billion implies?

好的。我會在線下跟進此事。我的第二個問題是，我對 20 億美元股票回購的指導感到有點驚訝。我知道這很靈活。但我認為資產負債表上確實有 35 億美元。您預計將再創收 30 億美元。為什麼我們不應該在 2021 年尋求比 20 億美元所暗示的更激進的回購？

Because we keep guidance consistent in terms of what we say in terms of EPS and share buybacks. You're right in saying that provides us flexibility. Should cash flow be better, should we decide to do something more with our coffee and might not have some acquisitions coming along, we will be flexible and we'll fine-tune the number. I think the way you have to look at it is, should the circumstances stay the same as today, at least we will do $2 billion.

因為我們在每股盈餘和股票回購方面保持指導一致。你說得對，這為我們提供了靈活性。如果現金流更好，如果我們決定對我們的咖啡做更多事情，並且可能不會進行一些收購，我們將保持靈活性，並對數字進行微調。我認為你必須這樣看待它：如果情況與今天一樣，至少我們會提供 20 億美元。

Your next question is from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

Yes. Great. Can you hear me okay?

是的。偉大的。你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So this question, maybe for you, Luca. I don't know, but I guess I was looking for a little bit more of a bridge in the year-over-year move in gross margins in the quarter. And then to follow on what you're assuming about those moving parts into '21 because, in the end, what I'm really trying to understand is I know you don't manage the gross margin, but it seems with the inflation that is building even as you catch up on pricing versus inflation dynamics in Latin America, as you mentioned, it seems like the gross margin being up in '21 could be ambitious. I'd love some color around that. And if you don't think you can improve gross margins, you're not planning on it, then I guess also curious as to what the sources of G&A efficiency might be in the coming year that will enable the EPS flow-through as well as the higher working media investments that you called out.

所以這個問題也許適合你，盧卡。我不知道，但我想我是在為本季毛利率的同比變動尋找更多的橋樑。然後繼續你對 21 年這些移動部件的假設，因為最後，我真正想要理解的是，我知道你無法管理毛利率，但似乎隨著通貨膨脹，正如您所提到的，即使您趕上了拉丁美洲的定價與通貨膨脹動態，但21 年毛利率的上升似乎是雄心勃勃的。我喜歡周圍有一些顏色。如果你認為你不能提高毛利率，你就沒有計劃，那麼我想你也很好奇來年的總務和行政效率的來源是什麼，這也將使每股收益得以流通正如您所呼籲的更高的工作媒體投資。

Yes. So clearly, in the cost line, there was an impact due to COVID extra costs. And I think when I look at the year and I strip that out, what I can tell you is that, overall, gross profit and gross margins, they were pretty much in line with expectations. There is a big catch, and the catch is the fact that particularly gum and candy suffered a decline that was around about 20%. That category is a category that is quite profitable, and stripping out 20% of the volume in 2020 resulted in a subscale type of category with under absorption on a few P&L lines.

是的。很明顯，在成本方面，由於新冠疫情的額外成本而產生了影響。我認為，當我回顧這一年並將其剔除時，我可以告訴你的是，總體而言，毛利和毛利率與預期基本一致。有一個很大的問題，問題是口香糖和糖果的下降幅度約為 20% 左右。該類別是一個非常有利可圖的類別，並且在 2020 年削減 20% 的銷量導致了一個小規模類型的類別，在一些損益表上吸收不足。

In that regard, what I would say is, if I take out COVID and gum and candy, I think the level of profitability is sound. We have a couple of things that we need to bear in mind. We were afraid that we would have a subdued Christmas season, which didn't happen. We had record high shares in Christmas, but we spent a little bit more in making sure that the stock was rotating. That's one impact.

在這方面，我想說的是，如果剔除新冠病毒和口香糖和糖果，我認為獲利水準是不錯的。我們需要牢記一些事情。我們擔心聖誕節會變得冷淡，但這並沒有發生。我們在聖誕節的股票創下了歷史新高，但我們花了更多的錢來確保股票的輪換。這就是影響之一。

And the second thing is we haven't fully implemented pricing actions in quite a few places around the world. As we run out of coverage, particularly in Latin America, the exchange rate impact was quite material. And we priced ahead of running out of coverage, and we will price afterwards in an attempt to smooth what consumer prices are.

第二件事是我們還沒有在全球許多地方完全實施定價行動。由於我們的承保範圍已經耗盡，特別是在拉丁美洲，匯率影響相當重大。我們在覆蓋範圍耗盡之前定價，之後我們將定價，以試圖平滑消費者價格。

So in structural terms, I would say that there is nothing that is concerning me at this point about gross profit. I think you will see a P&L that makes sense in 2021. The level at which we will see gross profit in 2021 will obviously depend on the level of recovery of gum and candy, which happens to be something that we don't fully know of and we don't fully control.

因此，從結構角度來看，我想說，目前我對毛利沒有任何擔憂。我認為您會在 2021 年看到有意義的損益表。2021年我們看到的毛利水準顯然取決於口香糖和糖果的復甦水平，而這恰好是我們不完全了解、也不完全控制的事情。

But in terms of structure, I think gross profit is sound. We have announced pricing actions around the world. We have visibility to the commodity pipeline for the vast majority of it; and ForEx, we are covered. We delivered, excluding COVID costs, sound productivities in 2020. We count on the same level in 2021. And by the way, when I look at the overhead line, excluding A&C, we did a terrific job in 2020 reducing overheads by almost 50 basis points. And we want to continue cost pressure and keeping the costs in control. So from my side at this point, I would say still overall good for 2021 GP. There might be a little bit of timing effect in Q1.

但從結構來看，我認為毛利是穩健的。我們已宣佈在全球範圍內採取定價行動。我們對絕大多數商品管道都有可見性；和外匯，我們都有保障。不包括新冠疫情成本，我們在 2020 年實現了良好的生產力。我們預計 2021 年將達到相同水準。順便說一句，當我查看不包括 A&C 的管理費用時，我們在 2020 年做得非常出色，管理費用減少了近 50 個基點。我們希望繼續承受成本壓力並控製成本。因此，從我的角度來看，我認為 2021 年大獎賽總體上還是不錯的。第一季可能會有一點時間效應。

Your next question is from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的賈森·英格利希 (Jason English)。

Congratulations for successfully navigating a pretty crazy year behind us. Let's hope this year is a little less crazy. Thank you so much for the incremental color or all the detail you've given about the underpinning assumptions here to the guidance. Based on the conversations you've had with investors, I'm guessing the one area of debate -- the variance, I mean, most hotly debated is your comment on sustained share gains next year. There's a lot of people who look at your market share performance this year and believe there's a degree of transitory benefit from the reality of you having a DSD organization versus -- a North America DSD against others with warehouse, a lot of superior service levels. Maybe the scale of your supply chain also once again allowing superior service levels and that those benefits naturally will unwind, and you're going to see share pressure in North America or Europe or somebody, like DMs, where you gained so much. What do you think is -- where do you think that argument is fault? So what are the risks? And what gives you confidence in your ability to sustain those share gains next year?

恭喜您成功度過了瘋狂的一年。希望今年能少一些瘋狂。非常感謝您提供增量顏色或您在指南中提供的有關基本假設的所有細節。根據您與投資者的對話，我猜測爭論的一個領域 - 我的意思是，最激烈爭論的差異是您對明年股票持續上漲的評論。有許多人關注您今年的市場份額表現，並相信您擁有 DSD 組織與北美 DSD 與擁有倉庫、許多卓越服務水平的其他組織相比，會帶來一定程度的暫時利益。也許您的供應鏈規模也再次允許卓越的服務水平，並且這些好處自然會消失，您將在北美或歐洲或某些地方（例如DM）看到份額壓力，在那裡您獲得瞭如此多的收益。你認為這個論點錯在哪裡？那麼有哪些風險呢？是什麼讓您對明年維持這些份額成長的能力充滿信心？

Yes. I would say there's a number of arguments. The first one is, if you look at the share gains that we incurred in the second quarter of '20 and then you look at what happened in Q3 and Q4, our share gains didn't fade. They remain quite strong, and so we could already have expected that sort of effect that you're describing, Jason, in Q4 of this year.

是的。我想說有很多爭論。第一個是，如果你看看我們在 20 年第二季的股票收益，然後看看第三季和第四季發生的情況，我們的股票收益並沒有消失。它們仍然相當強勁，因此我們可能已經預料到了傑森，您在今年第四季所描述的那種效果。

The largest categories that we are in continue to shine, and our performance in there is pretty good. It's not just our gains with our DSD system in the U.S., but we have 80% of our revenue base around the world where we are gaining and holding share. Plus the share gain itself is quite substantial. The share gain in '20 was much, much higher than in 2019, where we also had a share gain.

我們在最大的類別中繼續大放異彩，並且我們在那裡的表現相當不錯。這不僅是我們在美國透過 DSD 系統獲得的收益，而且我們在全球範圍內獲得並維持了 80% 的收入基礎。再加上份額收益本身就相當可觀。20 年的股票漲幅比 2019 年高很多，2019 年我們也有股票漲幅。

So if I look going forward, what are we going to do to make sure that, that effect doesn't happen, first of all, we have investments in -- that are substantially going to increase into '21. Our financial equation can afford it. You've talked a little bit about it, that we constantly reinvest whatever we would over deliver in our bottom line. And for the time being, we are planning to continue to do that in order to push our growth up.

因此，如果我展望未來，我們將採取什麼措施來確保這種影響不會發生，首先，我們的投資將在 21 世紀大幅增加。我們的財務方程式可以負擔得起。你已經談到了一點，我們不斷地對我們超越的利潤進行再投資。目前，我們計劃繼續這樣做，以推動我們的成長。

Second, we are having some very good channels effect, particularly in e-commerce. We are also preparing to move very fast in away from home, which will give us a boost, world travel retail and also convenience stores. So that will also give us an extra boost, and we will make sure that we move faster than anybody else there.

第二，我們有一些非常好的通路效應，特別是在電子商務方面。我們也準備好快速離開家鄉，這將為我們帶來推動，世界旅遊零售和便利商店。因此，這也將為我們帶來額外的推動力，我們將確保我們比其他任何人都走得更快。

Our customer service is good, and it's very good. We had -- our supply chain performed really well, but there's still room for improvement because it was good in the times of COVID. It was not as good compared to normal time. So we think we will still have an upside from our customer service.

我們的客戶服務很好，而且非常好。我們的供應鍊錶現非常好，但仍有改進的空間，因為它在新冠疫情時期表現良好。與正常時間相比，情況不太好。因此，我們認為我們的客戶服務仍然有優勢。

And then we're doing a lot of work on RGM in order to protect our key price points and retain consumers. We've gained a lot of new consumers into our brands. We were quite curious to see what was going to happen. Again, in Q3 and Q4, we were able to retain them, and we're counting to be able to do that again into next year. And then we have a very strong program, probably the strongest that I've seen since I'm here, in innovation and also in activation. So because of all those reasons, I feel pretty good about our opportunity to continue our momentum in market share going forward.

然後，我們在 RGM 方面做了大量工作，以保護我們的關鍵價格點並留住消費者。我們的品牌吸引了許多新消費者。我們很好奇會發生什麼事。同樣，在第三季度和第四季度，我們能夠保留它們，並且我們希望能夠在明年再次做到這一點。然後我們有一個非常強大的計劃，可能是我來這裡以來見過的最強大的計劃，無論是在創新還是在激活方面。因此，由於所有這些原因，我對我們繼續保持市場份額成長勢頭的機會感到非常滿意。

Your next question is from the line of Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So the clarity on market share was helpful. I was just wondering, could you parse down the 2021 organic sales growth you're expecting? How much market share gains are you expecting after the strong gains we saw in 2020? Is it a similar magnitude? It sounds like maybe perhaps it's continuing but smaller.

因此，明確市場佔有率是有幫助的。我只是想知道，您能分析一下您預期的 2021 年有機銷售成長嗎？在 2020 年市佔率強勁成長之後，您預期市佔率會成長多少？是否有類似的幅度？聽起來也許它仍在繼續，但規模較小。

And then second, just on category growth. Are you expecting an acceleration in category growth overall in 2021 relative to 2020? Obviously, there were some areas like gum or chocolate in travel retail that were down significantly. There are other areas like biscuits that improved sequentially in 2020. So just sort of curious for overall category growth how are you thinking about that growth in 2021 relative to 2020 and if you see any acceleration there overall.

其次，就是品類成長。您是否預期 2021 年品類整體成長將較 2020 年加速？顯然，旅遊零售中的口香糖或巧克力等一些領域的銷售量大幅下降。餅乾等其他領域在 2020 年也取得了連續改善。因此，我對整體類別的成長感到好奇，您如何看待 2021 年相對於 2020 年的成長，以及您是否看到整體上有任何加速。

Yes. Well, I would say as it relates to organic sales growth and share gains, we are planning to continue share gains, but not to the magnitude that we've seen in 2020. We don't communicate on the magnitude. We just give you the countries where we've gained or increased our market share, but we expect that the share gain will be of a lesser magnitude. I can tell you that, and I think it's a reasonable assumption.

是的。嗯，我想說，由於這與有機銷售增長和份額增長有關，我們計劃繼續份額增長，但不會達到 2020 年的規模。我們不就其大小進行溝通。我們只向您提供我們已經獲得或增加市場份額的國家/地區，但我們預計份額增長的幅度會較小。我可以告訴你，我認為這是一個合理的假設。

As it relates to the category growth rates, in the measured channels, it was 3.1% for 2020, which was a slight decline versus 2019, where we saw 3.6%. And then, of course, you had the unmeasured channels, which were declining like away from home and world travel retail. So likely, if you would add those channels to it, you were probably looking at a total growth, very, very minor growth. And most of our outperformance of the category was driven by our market share gains in 2020.

就品類成長率而言，在計算的通路中，2020 年為 3.1%，與 2019 年的 3.6% 相比略有下降。當然，還有無法衡量的管道，這些管道正在下降，例如離家和世界旅遊零售。因此，如果您將這些管道添加到其中，您可能會看到整體成長，非常非常小的成長。我們在該類別中的出色表現大部分是由 2020 年市場份額的成長所推動的。

I think in '21, what we are expecting at least is some reversion to the norm with the customers going back into the unmeasured channels from the measured channels. And so as the restriction ease, so that the -- that will mean that the measured channel growth will slow next year but that the combination of the 2 will remain about the same, maybe slightly less. And so we don't have to count on as much share gains to get to the growth that we're talking about. I hope that's helpful.

我認為在 21 年，我們至少期望的是，客戶會從測量管道回到未測量管道，從而回歸常態。因此，隨著限制的放鬆，這將意味著明年測得的通路成長將放緩，但兩者的結合將保持大致相同，甚至可能略少。因此，我們不必指望那麼多的份額收益來實現我們正在談論的成長。我希望這有幫助。

Great. That's very helpful. And then just one other question. On the A&C line, clearly, you guys ramped up in the second half of the year after a pullback in the first half. I'm wondering, did you see the same efforts in terms of increased ad spend generally from competitors? How are you feeling about your share of voice in the marketplace on the ad spend front in the back half of the year and leaving 2020?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後還有一個問題。在 A&C 線上，顯然，你們在上半年有所回落後，在下半年有所上升。我想知道，您是否看到競爭對手在增加廣告支出方面做出了同樣的努力？從今年下半年到 2020 年，您對自己在廣告支出方面在市場上的話語權有何看法？

Well, I don't know if Luca wants to say something about our investments. But as it relates to competition, I can quickly comment on that. Yes, they are also increasing their spend. So I would say, our share of voice has remained about the same. And everybody has done a little bit the same, I would say, didn't spend that much in Q2 and came back in H2. So I don't see any major differences there. But I cannot predict what's going to happen in the beginning of the year. I just know what we are about to do. So maybe, Luca, you want to talk a little bit about our overall investments.

嗯，我不知道盧卡是否想談談我們的投資。但由於涉及競爭，我可以很快對此發表評論。是的，他們也在增加支出。所以我想說，我們的發言權份額基本上保持不變。我想說，每個人都做了一點相同的事情，在第二季度沒有花那麼多錢，在下半年又回來了。所以我認為那裡沒有任何重大差異。但我無法預測今年年初會發生什麼事。我只知道我們要做什麼。盧卡，也許您想談談我們的整體投資。

Yes. So in terms of investments, Dara, you're right. We stepped it up, particularly in the second half. I think you see in the material that we called out that working media is growing 17%. We plan to keep the same level and increase it in 2021. So we are building on a continuous investment in working media, which importantly comes together with improved ROI, which means high-quality media we are putting behind our brands. We are investing more in digital, which, in general terms, command a little bit more ROI than other regular channels. And third, again, the essence of diverting nonworking media into working media improves the overall spending ROI; so there is a compounded effect between increasing investment and having a better return on what we spend.

是的。所以就投資而言，達拉，你是對的。我們加強了力度，尤其是在下半場。我想您在我們提到的材料中看到，工作媒體增長了 17%。我們計劃保持相同水準並在 2021 年提高。因此，我們正在對工作媒體進行持續投資，重要的是，這與提高投資回報率相結合，這意味著我們在品牌背後投入了高品質的媒體。我們正在加大對數位管道的投資，一般來說，數位管道的投資回報率比其他常規管道要高一些。第三，將非工作媒體轉向工作媒體的本質是提高整體支出投資報酬率；因此，增加投資和獲得更好的支出回報之間存在複合效應。

And again, I think Dirk said it well. When we look at market and share, in Q4, we didn't slow down overall for the company. And what that means is that, yes, we had clear advantages in terms of supply chain at the beginning of the crisis. But as the situation normalized for us and for other competitors, people continue to favor our franchises to others. And I think one of the drivers is clearly the fact that we have invested more, that we have more meaningful innovation. And then we are activating effectively account of sales.

再說一次，我認為德克說得很好。當我們觀察第四季的市場和份額時，我們公司整體上並沒有放緩。這意味著，是的，我們在危機之初在供應鏈方面擁有明顯的優勢。但隨著我們和其他競爭對手的情況正常化，人們繼續青睞我們的特許經營權。我認為驅動因素之一顯然是我們投入了更多資金，我們擁有更有意義的創新。然後我們正在有效地啟動銷售帳戶。

Your next question is from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

A couple of quick ones from me. First, Luca, I don't know if I missed it or not, but did you give guidance for '21 on capital spending?

我的一些快速的。首先，盧卡，我不知道我是否錯過了，但是您是否為 21 世紀的資本支出提供了指導？

No, I didn't, but I think it is 3.5%. That's the number you have to have in mind. Okay?

不，我沒有，但我認為是 3.5%。這是你必須牢記的數字。好的？

And then second one, just with regard to kind of modeling out revenues for 2021, in 2020, emerging -- or developed markets grew faster than developing and emerging markets. In particular, you grew over 8% in North America. So we're kind of thinking about contribution and that balance in '21. Would we expect that to flip? Are you expecting emerging market -- developing and emerging to grow faster than developed? And then second, North America, given how strong that comp is, is that something you could actually grow off of in '21?

第二個，就 2021 年收入建模而言，2020 年新興市場或已開發市場的成長速度快於發展中市場和新興市場。特別是，北美地區的成長率超過 8%。所以我們正在考慮 21 世紀的貢獻和平衡。我們會期望這種情況會發生翻轉嗎？您是否預期新興市場（發展中市場和新興市場）的成長速度快於已開發國家？其次，北美，考慮到該公司的實力，你真的可以在 21 年從中獲得成長嗎？

We usually don't provide segment guidance, and I would like to stay away from that. But I think the -- what you are saying makes sense. Now I think you have to bear in mind that within developed market, Europe wasn't stellar in Q2. You know that Europe has world travel retail in it that got a material impact, so I expect Europe to grow. I think in the case of North America, obviously, we are lapping 13%, 11%, I believe, respectively, in Q1 and Q2, so that would be the toughest comparison. But then in the second part of the year, numbers are easier; and hopefully, as gum comes back, we will have a positive impact.

我們通常不提供細分指導，我希望遠離這種情況。但我認為——你說的有道理。現在我認為你必須記住，在已開發市場中，歐洲在第二季表現並不出色。你知道歐洲的世界旅遊零售業產生了重大影響，所以我預期歐洲將會成長。我認為就北美而言，顯然，我們在第一季和第二季分別領先 13% 和 11%，所以這將是最艱難的比較。但到了下半年，數字就更容易了；希望隨著口香糖的回歸，我們能夠產生正面的影響。

We are putting together, and we have put together actually, quite good plans for the 3 acquisition platforms that we acquired in the last few years. And so I think there is more to come in terms of North America and developed markets, but I wouldn't draw the conclusion that it is all bundled together because North America grew double digit in the first half.

我們正在為過去幾年收購的 3 個收購平台製定非常好的計劃。因此，我認為北美和已開發市場方面還會有更多的發展，但我不會得出所有這些都捆綁在一起的結論，因為北美在上半年實現了兩位數的成長。

In emerging markets, again, I'm really happy about what I'm seeing. China grew nicely in Q4, almost double digit. It was just shy of double digits. India grew more than 10%. So did Russia. Brazil grew high single digits. So I'm positive about the evolution of developing markets overall. Clearly, there are some of them, particularly in Latin America, that are impacted by gum and candy; but again, as we start lapping Q2 numbers, that should be better. I think as you step back and you look at 3.1% category growth in 2020, we have always said categories will grow 3% or so. I think you should expect the same type of category growth. With all the puts and takes, clearly, biscuits being a little bit lower but gum and candy being much more positive, you should expect a category growth in the neighborhood of 3% and on top of that, [going] to add shares.

在新興市場，我對所看到的情況再次感到非常高興。中國第四季成長良好，幾乎達到兩位數。它只差兩位數。印度成長超過10%。俄羅斯也是如此。巴西實現高個位數成長。因此，我對發展中市場的整體發展持樂觀態度。顯然，其中一些國家，尤其是拉丁美洲國家，受到口香糖和糖果的影響。但同樣，當我們開始記錄第二季的數據時，情況應該會更好。我認為，當你退後一步，看看 2020 年品類成長 3.1% 時，我們一直說品類將成長 3% 左右。我認為你應該期待同樣類型的成長。顯然，考慮到所有的看跌期權和看跌期權，餅乾的價格略低，但口香糖和糖果的價格要樂觀得多，您應該預計品類增長約為 3%，最重要的是，[將]增加股票。

Your next question is from the line of John Baumgartner with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的約翰·鮑姆加特納。

Luca, two-parter for me. First off, the reinvestment has been a big theme behind the top line improvement over the past 2 years and again here in 2021. And I'm wondering if you could speak to what's driving the higher return on spending for media investment. How much do you attribute to just straight cost improvements from agency consolidations and then how much from other aspects, whether it's better quality programming from the local first or even better in-store activation that better leverages that media spend?

盧卡，對我來說是兩個人。首先，再投資一直是過去兩年收入改善背後的一大主題，2021 年也是如此。我想知道您是否可以談談是什麼推動了媒體投資支出的更高回報。您認為代理商合併所帶來的直接成本改善有多少，還有其他方面的多少，無論是本地優先的更高品質的節目，還是更好地利用媒體支出的更好的店內激活？

Yes. Maybe I'll let Dirk take this one. I mean I have a point of view, but I think Dirk is the expert here. So yes, Dirk.

是的。也許我會讓德克拿走這個。我的意思是我有自己的觀點，但我認為德克是這方面的專家。所以是的，德克。

Yes. Well, first of all, we have been shifting around in our A&C budget. What we've done is we have increased our working media, and the balance was, to my opinion, a little bit off. So the net effect in media has been significant, as Luca was commenting in last year, and we're continuing that effect in '21.

是的。嗯，首先，我們一直在調整 A&C 預算。我們所做的是增加了工作媒體，但在我看來，平衡有點偏離。因此，正如盧卡去年評論的那樣，媒體的淨效應是顯著的，我們將在 21 年繼續這種效應。

On top of that, we are increasing our overall budget. And so we've increased the percentage of A&C of net revenue in '20, and we're going to do the same in '21. The third driver of our increased ROI is a bigger switch to digital. So we are now well above 50% of our investment is in digital, and we know that we can drive a much better effect and much better targeting of our consumers.

最重要的是，我們正在增加總體預算。因此，我們在 20 年增加了 A&C 佔淨收入的百分比，並且我們將在 21 年做同樣的事情。我們增加投資報酬率的第三個驅動因素是更大程度地轉向數位化。因此，我們現在 50% 以上的投資都投入到數位領域，我們知道我們可以帶來更好的效果，更好地瞄準消費者。

And then the last effect I would say for our increase in ROI is the fact that we've done a lot of work on our brands, worked on purpose. We worked on communication. We've done a number of things that really have had a big effect to, call it, Oreo, Cadbury, Milka; really some big strides, for instance, to mention, the Lady Gaga Oreo that's going to hit stores today. I think that's generating a lot of buzz, and we've done many of these things.

我要說的最後一個對我們投資報酬率提高的影響是，我們在我們的品牌上做了很多工作，有目的地工作。我們致力於溝通。我們做了很多確實產生了巨大影響的事情，像是奧利奧、吉百利、米爾卡；確實是一些重大進步，例如，今天即將上市的 Lady Gaga Oreo。我認為這引起了很多關注，我們已經做了很多這樣的事情。

There is some effect, but it's minor -- no, minor is maybe a big word. It is not the biggest driver on agency rationalization, if I can say it, and some margin negotiation. So there is some of that in there, but that is not -- certainly not the biggest driver of what we've done.

有一定的影響，但影響很小——不，「輕微」也許是一個大詞。如果我可以這麼說的話，這並不是機構合理化以及一些利潤談判的最大動力。所以其中有一些，但這不是——當然不是我們所做的事情的最大推動力。

I'll look for the Lady Gaga. I appreciate that. And then secondly, just to follow up there. Going back to FX, we've seen FX headwinds for a number of years now. And I'm curious, to the extent that those may now reverse in your favor, for translation, yes, but also maybe even driving some trickle-down benefits operationally where maybe it relieves some of them to take pricing in foreign markets. To what extent do you think the market doesn't fully appreciate the potential benefits from that on EPS or even volume growth in your stock valuation?

我會去找Lady Gaga。我很感激。其次，只是為了跟進。回到外匯，我們多年來一直看到外匯逆風。我很好奇，在某種程度上，這些現在可能會逆轉，對翻譯有利，是的，但也可能在營運上帶來一些涓滴效應，這可能會減輕他們中的一些人在國外市場定價的負擔。您認為市場在多大程度上沒有充分認識到每股盈餘甚至股票估值的數量成長所帶來的潛在好處？

Yes. Thank you, John, for the question. Clearly, we leave to the stock market to determine the fair value of Mondelez, but let me provide some perspective. The peak -- the pickup of $0.10 in EPS due to translation clearly adds to the great progress we have made as a company, I believe, over the last 3 years. And it is fair to say that, while the valuation has improved in the last 3 years, we still stand behind in terms of peer average and best in class; and so that gap, hopefully, over time, will close. When I consider the brands that we have, the geographic portfolio, the category exposure, our track record over the last 3 years, I would say that we are well positioned, and I would assume that over time, that should be reflected in our valuation.

是的。謝謝約翰提出這個問題。顯然，我們讓股市來決定億滋國際的公允價值，但讓我提供一些觀點。我相信，由於翻譯，每股收益增加了 0.10 美元，這顯然增加了我們作為一家公司在過去 3 年中取得的巨大進步。可以公平地說，雖然估值在過去三年有所改善，但我們在同業平均和同類最佳方面仍然落後；因此，隨著時間的推移，這種差距有望縮小。當我考慮我們擁有的品牌、地理組合、品類曝光以及過去三年的業績記錄時，我會說我們處於有利位置，並且我認為隨著時間的推移，這應該反映在我們的估值中。

And the same conclusion, quite frankly, is if you do a sum of the parts. So I think we -- when I step back and I look at the quality of the EPS, the $0.10 of EPS that we're adding current spot rate, I think there should be upside, but obviously, I leave to the market to decide.

坦白說，如果你把各個部分相加，你也會得出同樣的結論。所以我認為，當我退後一步，看看每股收益的質量，即我們添加當前即期匯率的每股收益 0.10 美元時，我認為應該有上漲空間，但顯然，我讓市場來決定。

I think you had also a point about transaction ForEx, what we call transaction ForEx. And clearly, transaction ForEx is a benefit for all the businesses we have around the world. But remember, we are covered, and it is embedded into the guidance we gave. So hopefully, I addressed the couple of points you were asking.

我認為您對 ForEx 交易也有一定的看法，我們稱之為 ForEx 交易。顯然，外匯交易對我們在世界各地的所有企業都有好處。但請記住，我們已被覆蓋，並且它已嵌入到我們提供的指導中。希望我能解決您所問的幾點。

Your next question is from the man of Chris Growe with Stifel.

你的下一個問題來自克里斯·格羅（Chris Growe）和斯蒂菲爾（Stifel）的人。

I just want to ask you, if I could, I've just been following on the discussion you've had around costs and pricing. I guess just from a high level, do you expect pricing to offset inflation for the year? You did talk about pricing kind of catching up with costs. And then just to think about would pricing, as has been typical, represent roughly half of your organic revenue growth for the year? Would that be a reasonable assumption for the year?

我只是想問你，如果可以的話，我一直在關注你們關於成本和定價的討論。我想，從高水準來看，您預計今年的定價能夠抵銷通膨嗎？您確實談到了定價趕上成本的問題。然後想一想，像往常一樣，定價是否會代表您今年有機收入成長的大約一半？對今年來說，這是一個合理的假設嗎？

Yes. Maybe there will be a little bit more -- slightly more component of pricing given the fact that, as we said, there is a timing effect in Q4 that should be fully recuperated into 2021. But I don't think it is going to be a major one. I think the 50-50 split is still something that is plausible. Maybe in Q1, it will be a little bit less.

是的。考慮到正如我們所說的那樣，第四季度存在時間效應，應該會在 2021 年完全恢復，因此定價的組成部分可能會更多一些。但我認為這不會成為重大事件。我認為 50-50 的分配仍然是合理的。也許在第一季度，會少一點。

I think to your question about are you offsetting all your costs, I think the #1 qualifier should be with or without COVID. And without COVID and the fact that COVID is subsiding, we will be fully offsetting the cost inflation over time as we enter the year. And as we get close to the end of 2021, I expect the run rate of gross profit to be at the same level as it would have been without COVID.

我認為，對於你的問題，你是否抵消了所有成本，我認為第一名的限定詞應該是有或沒有新冠病毒。如果沒有新冠疫情，而且新冠疫情正在消退，隨著時間的推移，進入今年，我們將完全抵消成本通膨。隨著 2021 年底的臨近，我預計毛利運行率將與沒有新冠疫情時的水平相同。

So that has always been the intention. Over time, we want to be price disciplined. We will price away inflation, and we believe that is one of the building blocks of us being able to invest more in the company.

所以這一直是我們的意圖。隨著時間的推移，我們希望遵守價格紀律。我們將透過定價消除通貨膨脹，我們相信這是我們能夠對公司進行更多投資的基石之一。

Okay. And then I had just a quick follow-on. You've talked about implementing a pretty meaningful SKU reduction program. And I just want to get a sense, and maybe perhaps this fits in with that answer, but does that provide -- is that occurring as you expected? And is that a volume weight for the year, but you're seeing a much better mix improvement? I just want to get a sense of where we stand on the SKU reduction program.

好的。然後我就進行了快速跟進。您談到了實施一項非常有意義的 SKU 減少計劃。我只是想了解一下，也許這與這個答案相符，但這是否提供了——這是否如您所期望的那樣發生？這是今年的體積重量，但您看到了更好的混合改進嗎？我只是想了解我們在 SKU 減少計劃方面的立場。

Okay. Yes, the short answer to that is yes. We are on track, and it's really part of a broader simplification program in order to drive both top line and bottom line. So it's a reduction of SKUs, a reduction of the number of innovation initiative. We're doing bigger innovation initiatives and then also a strategic review of our brands. We are aiming for 25% reduction in every region. There is no skew to one category or another. And so in the sense that what we have stopped manufacturing, so we don't make any more, we've already achieved a double-digit reduction in '20. I need to take into account, for instance, that, in Europe, those changes can only be done in the first quarter of the new year, so they are going to do their SKU reductions right now. And we also have to do it at a certain rhythm because we are protecting our shelf space and trying to minimize waste.

好的。是的，簡短的回答是肯定的。我們已步入正軌，這實際上是更廣泛的簡化計劃的一部分，旨在推動營收和利潤。因此，減少了 SKU，減少了創新措施的數量。我們正在實施更大規模的創新舉措，並對我們的品牌進行策略性審查。我們的目標是每個地區減少 25%。不存在對某一類別的偏斜。因此，從某種意義上說，我們已經停止生產，因此我們不再生產，我們已經在 20 世紀實現了兩位數的減少。例如，我需要考慮到，在歐洲，這些變化只能在新年第一季完成，所以他們現在就要減少 SKU。我們還必須以一定的節奏進行，因為我們正在保護我們的貨架空間並努力減少浪費。

And so we will -- going forward, once we reach the level we were aiming for, the -- keep the lower SKU count, and we're going to apply a very strict 1 in, 1 out approach to new products. We -- important to mention is probably that we are not expecting any negative top line effect since these 25% only represent 2%, 3%. And keeping our shelf space, we should be fine. And going forward, there's a number of benefits as it relates to less complexity in manufacturing, for instance, better customer service, reduction of our inventories. And so we -- and also more sales we -- since we have more space for our top-selling SKUs. So it's going to support the delivery over long-term algorithm. It won't be transformative from a margin perspective, to our opinion, though. It will help. It will improve, but it's not that you will see a massively improved gross margin.

因此，我們將 - 展望未來，一旦達到我們的目標水平， - 保持較低的 SKU 數量，並且我們將對新產品採用非常嚴格的 1 進 1 出方法。值得一提的是，我們預計不會產生任何負面的營收影響，因為這 25% 僅代表 2%、3%。保持我們的貨架空間，我們應該沒問題。展望未來，降低製造複雜性會帶來許多好處，例如更好的客戶服務、減少庫存。因此，我們——以及更多的銷量——因為我們有更多的空間來容納最暢銷的 SKU。因此它將支援長期演算法的交付。但我們認為，從利潤角度來看，這不會帶來改變。我會幫你的。它會有所改善，但這並不是說您會看到毛利率大幅增加。

And your final question comes from the line of Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

你的最後一個問題來自 Rob Dickerson 和 Jefferies 的對話。

Great. Dirk, I guess this is a broader question kind of just in terms of portfolio position going forward. Obviously, you continue to do very well with the brands that you have. At the same time, we've seen some new innovation like the gluten-free cookie -- the gluten-free Oreo recently and then obviously, the full acquisition of Hu. You continue to call out that well-being sustainability is obviously a focus. And one could argue that kind of, over time, even if your core brands continue to do well, there's still a lot of opportunity and distribution opportunity kind of more in that kind of well-being side.

偉大的。德克，我想這是一個更廣泛的問題，只是就未來的投資組合部位而言。顯然，您所擁有的品牌繼續表現出色。同時，我們看到了一些新的創新，例如最近的無麩質餅乾——無麩質奧利奧，然後顯然是對 Hu 的全面收購。您繼續指出，福祉可持續性顯然是一個焦點。人們可能會說，隨著時間的推移，即使你的核心品牌繼續表現良好，在福祉方面仍然存在許多機會和分銷機會。

So just kind of maybe if you could just spend a little time, just provide some color kind of how you think about that internally. How do you leverage your capabilities, R&D, survey work, what have you, to kind of always make sure that you're on trend going forward with the brands you have but now also with the new brands? And then maybe if you could kind of tie in then how you would also be thinking about go-forward acquisition opportunities, kind of close to the core or still kind of maybe a little bit broader on the well-being side? That's it.

所以，如果你能花一點時間，提供一些你內心如何看待這個問題的顏色。你如何利用你的能力、研發、調查工作，你有什麼，來始終確保你與你擁有的品牌以及現在的新品牌保持一致？然後，也許如果你能結合起來，那麼你也會如何考慮未來的收購機會，有點接近核心，還是在福祉方面仍然有點廣泛？就是這樣。

Okay. It links in a little bit with that question about SKU. So the way we look at it is if we launch new SKUs or new sub-brands or new brands or buy brands, they need to have a certain level of sales right now and they need to have the potential to grow to a certain level. So as you do that analysis, there is certainly an amount of health and wellness in that mix. But it certainly wouldn't be -- to be honest, at this stage, the majority of what we do.

好的。它與有關 SKU 的問題有一點關聯。因此，我們的看法是，如果我們推出新的 SKU、新的子品牌、新的品牌或購買品牌，他們現在需要有一定的銷售水平，並且需要有成長到一定水平的潛力。因此，當您進行分析時，其中肯定存在一定程度的健康和保健因素。但說實話，在現階段我們所做的大部分工作肯定不會是這樣。

Every year, it's more, but we're trying to very carefully manage the balance between more indulgence and more health and wellness to -- over time in order to keep our mixed growth rate, if I can call it like that, because what you have is that health and wellness is growing faster, but it's smaller. And so if you look at the mixed growth rate, we need to do both; and at the moment, we need to do a lot more of indulgence.

每年都會更多，但我們正在努力非常謹慎地管理更多放縱與更多健康和保健之間的平衡，以便隨著時間的推移，以保持我們的混合增長率（如果我可以這樣稱呼它），因為你健康和保健的成長速度更快，但規模較小。因此，如果你看看混合成長率，我們需要兩者兼顧；目前，我們需要做更多的放縱。

As it relates to how we're thinking about it from an innovation, R&D and acquisition perspective, clearly, we want to continue to increase our exposure to health and wellness. And particularly, if we think about the next 10 years, let's say, I do expect that, that mixture between indulgence and health and wellness will continue to balance more and more versus health and wellness. We will accompany that mix, and so we need to launch more and acquire more in that sense.

因為這關係到我們如何從創新、研發和收購的角度思考它，所以顯然，我們希望繼續增加我們對健康和保健的關注。特別是，如果我們考慮未來 10 年，我確實預計，放縱與健康和養生之間的混合將繼續越來越平衡。我們將伴隨這種組合，因此我們需要在這個意義上推出更多並獲得更多。

The big areas that we are looking at are internally with our R&D team and also externally is -- one is an example of Oreo gluten-free, has to see with the ingredients the nutritional composition. What can we improve? How can we gradually get products that the health conscious consumers are more interested in? So it's sort of an upgrading of our current portfolio.

我們正在關注的主要領域是我們的研發團隊的內部以及外部——其中一個是奧利奧無麩質的例子，必須看到成分的營養成分。我們可以改進什麼？如何才能逐步得到注重健康的消費者更感興趣的產品呢？所以這是我們目前產品組合的升級。

And then we do have a number of products in market, very, very small tests with products we developed ourselves in-house, completely new breakthrough type of products, new brands. That will take time to develop, but we are also in there. And that goes much further than sort of cleaning up your ingredient or improving your ingredient panel.

然後我們確實在市場上有很多產品，用我們自己開發的產品進行非常非常小的測試，全新的突破性產品類型，新品牌。這需要時間來發展，但我們也在其中。這比清理成分或改進成分面板要更進一步。

And then the -- we use mainly acquisitions to really take a big foothold in some of the big health and wellness spaces. So Perfect Bar is considered one of the healthiest bars in the market. Then Hu is very particularly focused on the paleo, vegan segment, and we will continue to do that in the U.S. and around the world. And those are sort of the big lines of what we're trying to do. There's a number of other areas that are going on. So for instance, portion control, we think, is part of health and wellness. So over time, we are trying to reduce the portions that we sell or that the consumer consumes. We talked about the better-for-you credentials, but all natural is another one that is quite big. Local sourcing, in a way, the consumer is considering as healthy. And then there's, of course, the functional benefits, energy bites and things like that. So what I would say the big groups of what we're focused on health and wellness were the ones that I was going through before. But yes, you will see a very balanced approach in gradually introducing more health and wellness products from our side.

然後，我們主要利用收購來真正在一些大型健康和保健領域站穩腳跟。因此 Perfect Bar 被認為是市場上最健康的酒吧之一。然後，胡特別關注古素食領域，我們將繼續在美國和世界各地這樣做。這些是我們正在努力做的事情的大綱。還有許多其他領域正在發生。例如，我們認為，份量控制是健康的一部分。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們正在努力減少我們銷售或消費者消費的部分。我們討論了「對你更有利」的證書，但「全天然」證書是另一個相當重要的證書。在某種程度上，消費者認為本地採購是健康的。當然，還有功能性好處、能量消耗等等。所以我想說的是，我們關注健康和保健的大群體是我之前經歷過的。但是，是的，您會看到我們採取非常平衡的方法逐步推出更多健康和保健產品。

And there are no more questions at this...

至此沒有更多問題了...

I think that's the end. Yes. Sorry, go ahead.

我想這就是結局了吧。是的。抱歉，請繼續。

And there are no more questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

目前沒有更多問題了。我想將電話轉回管理層以供結束語。

I was jumping the gun here. Well, thank you very much for your time, your interest in the company. We feel good where we've ended 2020. We feel good for about 2021. We have momentum. We feel we are coming from a position of strength, and so we hope to be able to provide you some good news as we go through the year. Thank you.

我在這裡操之過急。嗯，非常感謝您抽出寶貴的時間以及對公司的興趣。2020 年即將結束，我們感覺良好。我們對 2021 年感覺良好。我們有動力。我們覺得我們處於有利地位，因此我們希望能夠在這一年中為您提供一些好消息。謝謝。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。