億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to hand the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加億滋國際2020年第二季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括億滋國際管理層的演講和問答環節。（操作員指示）現在，我將把電話交給億滋國際投資者關係副總裁謝普‧鄧拉普先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides which are available on our website.

下午好，感謝各位的參與。今天陪同我的是我們的董事長兼執行長 Dirk Van de Put，以及我們的財務長 Luca Zaramella。今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿和演示文稿，這些內容可以在我們的網站上找到。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將對公司的績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些說法是基於我們今天看待事物的方式。由於風險和不確定因素，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳情，請參閱我們 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。

As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results. In addition, we provide our year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis unless otherwise noted. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of our presentation.

今天，當我們討論績效時，除非另有說明，否則我們將參考非GAAP財務指標，這些指標會根據GAAP業績中包含的某些項目進行調整。此外，除非另有說明，否則我們提供的年成長率均以固定匯率計算。您可以在我們的獲利報告和簡報背面找到可比較的 GAAP 指標以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。

In today's call, Dirk will provide a business update, then Luca will take you through the financials and our outlook. We'll then close with Q&A. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dirk.

在今天的電話會議中，Dirk 將提供業務最新進展，然後 Luca 將帶您了解財務狀況和我們的展望。最後我們將進行問答環節。接下來，我將把電話交給德克。

Thank you, Shep. Let me start off by sharing an overview of our Q2 performance on Slide 4. Overall, we are pleased with our results, our business has been resilient, and our execution has been strong. Our first priority remains the safety and well-being of our colleagues and our communities as we navigate COVID-19. Because there still are areas of high risk, we are preparing the reopening or already have opened some of our offices around the world. And it is clear that the situation will remain volatile for at least the remainder of the year.

謝謝你，謝普。首先，請容許我在第 4 張投影片中概述我們第二季的業績。整體而言，我們對業績感到滿意，我們的業務展現出了韌性，執行力也很強。在應對新冠肺炎疫情的過程中，我們始終將同事和社區的安全與福祉放在首位。由於仍有一些高風險地區，我們正在準備重新開放或已經開放了我們在世界各地的一些辦事處。顯然，至少在今年剩餘的時間裡，局勢仍將動盪不安。

Our second priority also remains business continuity. I'm very proud of what our colleagues have and are doing to keep our operations running well. Here also, we need to remain vigilant because with the growing number of cases, the risk of business disruption continues to exist around the world.

我們的第二要務仍然是維持業務連續性。我為我們的同事們為保持公司運作良好所做的一切感到非常自豪。同樣，我們也需要保持警惕，因為隨著病例數的增加，世界各地仍然存在業務中斷的風險。

Our overall results for Q2 are good. Despite the fact that COVID has impacted various markets in quite different ways. Our portfolio of trusted brands as well as excellent execution have helped us to weather the high volatility reassuring us that our business fundamentals are solid. Particularly our execution in supply chain as well as our commercial operations have been superior in a very challenging environment. For instance, today, approximately 90% of our plants are running in line or above historical performance. Although we had already good market share momentum going into the crisis, this combination of the strength of our brands and our superior execution have helped to drive unprecedented gains.

我們第二季的整體業績良好。儘管新冠疫情對各市場的影響方式截然不同。我們擁有值得信賴的品牌組合以及出色的執行力，這幫助我們經受住了高波動性的考驗，也讓我們確信我們的業務基本面是穩固的。尤其是在充滿挑戰的環境下，我們在供應鏈和商業營運方面的執行力非常出色。例如，目前我們約有 90% 的工廠的運作性能達到或超過了歷史平均值。儘管我們在危機爆發前就已經擁有良好的市佔率成長勢頭，但我們強大的品牌實力和卓越的執行力相結合，幫助我們取得了前所未有的成長。

While the business environment globally remains very volatile, our strategy has proven to be a strength in these difficult circumstances, so we don't see a need to make changes, but we do see opportunities to double down and accelerate certain areas. For instance, due to our current momentum, some overall cost savings and our market share momentum, we are increasing investments in our brands in H2. That virtuous cycle of investment in our brand is an anchor stone of our strategy.

儘管全球商業環境仍然非常不穩定，但我們的策略已證明在這些困難的情況下具有優勢，因此我們認為沒有必要做出改變，但我們確實看到了在某些領域加倍投入和加速發展的機會。例如，由於我們目前的良好發展勢頭、整體成本節約以及市場份額的成長勢頭，我們將在下半年增加對我們品牌的投資。對品牌進行投資的良性循環是我們策略的基石。

Looking at the second half, we expect to see volatility continuing but we are well positioned for several reasons. Overall snacking tends to be a very resilient category, even in times of recession, meaning we are generally in the right categories. Our brands are some of the most preferred brands in our categories, both local and global. Our geographical footprint is diversified, meaning that while COVID might impact one location, others might be doing better. And finally, our people are responding very well with agility and resilience, and our local-first culture is an advantage in this environment where decision-making needs to be fast and made with the local consumers in mind.

展望下半年，我們預期市場波動將持續，但由於以下幾個原因，我們已做好充分準備。整體而言，零食是一個韌性很強的品類，即使在經濟衰退時期也是如此，這意味著我們總體上處於正確的類別。我們的品牌是同類別中最受歡迎的品牌之一，無論在本地還是全球範圍內都是如此。我們的業務遍及全球，這意味著雖然新冠疫情可能會影響某個地區，但其他地區的情況可能會好轉。最後，我們的員工反應非常迅速，展現出極強的彈性和韌性。在這種需要快速決策並以本地消費者為中心的情況下，我們以本地為先的文化是一項優勢。

Switching to Slide 5. Despite serious challenges caused by COVID effects on trade channels and consumers, we delivered solid results across the board, giving us confidence for sequential improvement in the second half as well as confidence to maintain the course of the strategy we announced almost 2 years ago. Our revenue growth was 0.7% in Q2 and is 3.7% for the first half. I consider this pretty good given that during the quarter, at one stage or another, every country and many trade channels were in lockdown.

切換到第 5 張投影片。儘管 COVID 對貿易管道和消費者造成了嚴重挑戰，但我們在各個方面都取得了穩健的業績，這使我們有信心在下半年實現環比增長，也有信心繼續執行我們近 2 年前宣布的戰略。第二季營收成長0.7%，上半年營收成長3.7%。考慮到本季期間，每個國家和許多貿易管道都曾處於封鎖狀態，我認為這相當不錯。

There are parts of our business that have slowed down significantly, such as the gum category, world travel retail, away-from-home and the traditional trade channel in some key emerging markets. At the same time, the grocery business in most of the world is well above normal trend. The combination of these 2 extremes give an almost 1% growth as an average, which we feel good about given the circumstances.

我們的一些業務領域已經明顯放緩，例如口香糖類別、全球旅遊零售、外出消費以及一些主要新興市場的傳統貿易管道。同時，世界大部分地區的食品雜貨業務都遠遠超出正常水準。這兩個極端因素結合起來，平均成長了近 1%，考慮到目前的情況，我們對此感到滿意。

Emerging markets were more affected than developed markets and declined in Q2. The good news is that they showed a sequential improvement during the quarter, and they exited the quarter with growth. We are maintaining or gaining share in markets, representing around 85% of our revenues in year-to-date 2020. This is driven by a number of key reasons. We are seeing consumers turning to brands and products they trust. We have many of these trusted brands around the world. Within our category, there is also a shift to segments that are better fit for at-home consumption. So we are stronger in these segments like tablets versus pralines or bars in chocolate. And our supply chain has kept functioning quite well throughout a shortage of labor or lockdowns providing us with a competitive advantage.

新興市場受到的影響比已開發市場更大，第二季出現下滑。好消息是，他們在本季度實現了環比改善，並且在本季末實現了成長。我們在市佔率方面保持或有所成長，占我們 2020 年迄今收入的約 85%。這主要由以下幾個關鍵原因造成。我們看到消費者正在轉向他們信任的品牌和產品。我們在世界各地擁有眾多值得信賴的品牌。在我們這個品類中，也出現了向更適合家庭消費的細分市場的轉變。因此，我們在巧克力片這類細分市場中更具優勢，例如與巧克力糖果或巧克力棒相比。即使面臨勞動力短缺或封鎖等情況，我們的供應鏈也一直運作良好，這為我們提供了競爭優勢。

Our adjusted EPS grew 16.1% in Q2 or 8% for the first half. Luca will provide the details, but despite the extra COVID-related costs, our operating income fell only marginally. Thanks to some offsetting cost-containment activities. We generated very strong cash flow. In the first half, free cash flow was $1.1 billion, and we raised our quarterly dividend by 11%.

第二季調整後每股盈餘成長16.1%，上半年成長8%。Luca會提供詳細信息，但儘管有額外的與新冠疫情相關的成本，我們的營業收入僅略有下降。多虧了一些抵銷成本控制措施。我們創造了非常強勁的現金流。上半年，自由現金流為 11 億美元，我們將季度股利提高了 11%。

Transitioning to Slide 6, as mentioned, our long-term strategy does not change. But seeing our current momentum, we are accelerating some initiatives which will allow us to emerge even stronger from this crisis. As it relates to growth strategies, we are planning a significant increase in investments behind working media in the second half, capitalizing on the strength and demand for our brands and built on our increased market share. We are also making adjustment to some of our advertising copy and campaigns to make them more relevant in the current context.

如前所述，過渡到第 6 張投影片，我們的長期策略不會改變。但鑑於我們目前的勢頭，我們正在加快一些舉措，這將使我們能夠從這場危機中變得更加強大。在成長策略方面，我們計劃在下半年大幅增加對媒體宣傳的投資，以充分利用我們品牌的實力和市場需求，並鞏固我們不斷增長的市場份額。我們也正在調整一些廣告文案和廣告活動，使它們更符合當前的情況。

Seeing the fact that the consumer is driven more to our core offerings, it is an ideal moment to simplify our portfolio as well as our innovation pipeline to focus on our value-driving core. So we are removing 25% of SKUs which will simplify our supply chain, reduce our cost and inventories and increase our sales in -- and our customer service. With the consumer probably focusing more on value, we are amplifying and accelerating our efforts on revenue growth management, and we believe there is significant potential to capitalize on the increase in e-commerce, particularly with many first-timers buying their groceries online.

鑑於消費者越來越傾向於我們的核心產品，現在是簡化我們的產品組合和創新流程，專注於我們創造價值的核心業務的理想時機。因此，我們將減少 25% 的 SKU，這將簡化我們的供應鏈，降低成本和庫存，提高銷售額和客戶服務水準。由於消費者可能更加重視價值，我們正在加大力度，加快收入成長管理，我們相信電子商務的成長具有巨大的潛力，尤其是許多首次嘗試在線購買雜貨的消費者。

In execution, we were always very cost-conscious, but we're taking a fresh look at cost opportunities, reducing in areas like travel and office costs. Costs also benefits from a smaller number of projects and initiatives as well as the reduction of our inventory levels. Out of an abundance of caution, we've decided to only invest CapEx this year in essential projects. And we are accelerating a number of key supply chain initiatives which are aimed at improving our efficiency.

在執行過程中，我們一直非常注重成本控制，但我們正在重新審視降低成本的機會，例如減少差旅費和辦公室費用。成本方面，項目和計劃數量減少以及庫存水準降低也帶來了好處。出於謹慎考慮，我們決定今年只將資本支出投資於必要的項目。我們正在加快推進多項關鍵供應鏈舉措，旨在提高效率。

Finally, all of these changes are enabled and underpinned by the continued evolution of our culture. Our local-first approach is enabling agile decision-making and adaptation in market. We also see we can evolve the way our people work, helping them with a better balance of life-work. For instance, going forward, we see more people working more time from home.

最後，所有這些變化都是由我們文化的持續發展所促成和支持的。我們以在地化為先的策略，能夠實現敏捷的決策和市場適應。我們也發現，我們可以改善員工的工作方式，幫助他們更好地平衡工作與生活。例如，展望未來，我們預計會有更多人在家工作更長時間。

Some of the changes due to COVID will be permanent. So we're redeploying resources to the areas with the highest return opportunities and areas that will be critical post COVID, as an example, e-commerce.

新冠疫情帶來的一些變化將是永久性的。因此，我們將資源重新部署到回報機會最高的領域以及新冠疫情後至關重要的領域，例如電子商務。

Now moving to Slide 7. Despite the current volatile and unpredictable environment, we believe ESG is as important as ever, if not more so, and we remain committed to making progress in this space. In terms of social impact, we have now made cash and in-kind donations of more than $25 million related to COVID-19, through product donations but also cash support as actions by brands and teams to donate PPE and other essential items. Our responsibility, the communities we operate in has also been highlighted by the recent attention on the racial justice and equality movement. Without question, there is no place for racism in our company or in our society, and it's critically important that we, along with other companies, show measurable action in helping to redress some of the injustices that exist in our society.

現在來看第 7 張投影片。儘管當前環境動盪且難以預測，但我們認為 ESG 仍然非常重要，甚至比以往任何時候都更加重要，我們將繼續致力於在該領域取得進展。在社會影響方面，我們目前已向 COVID-19 捐贈了超過 2500 萬美元的現金和實物，包括產品捐贈以及品牌和團隊捐贈個人防護裝備和其他必需品的現金支持。最近，種族正義和平等運動受到了廣泛關注，這也凸顯了我們對所在社區的責任。毫無疑問，我們的公司和社會絕不容忍種族主義，至關重要的是，我們和其他公司要採取實際行動，幫助糾正我們社會中存在的一些不公正現象。

My leadership colleagues and I have spent time listening to our employee resource groups and colleagues across the business. We've heard that colleagues want actions that are sustainable, impactful and generally make a difference. We want to build on our historical efforts in this area, and so we've organized ourselves across 3 pillars: colleagues, culture and communities.

我和我的領導同事花時間傾聽了員工資源小組和公司各部門同事的意見。我們了解到，同事們希望採取可持續、有影響力且能帶來實際改變的行動。我們希望鞏固我們在這一領域的歷史努力，因此我們圍繞著三大支柱組織起來：同事、文化和社區。

In our supply chain, we continue to advance our work on creating a sustainable supply of critical ingredients. One of the biggest challenges in this space is deforestation, and the result impact -- or the resulting impact on CO2. This quarter, we have launched as part of the Consumer Goods Forum, the Forest Positive Coalition with other CPG companies encouraging our suppliers to be more transparent on the land used to grow our ingredients. And finally, we are on track to meet our 2025 goal of 100% recyclable-ready packaging.

在我們的供應鏈中，我們不斷推動關鍵原料永續供應的工作。該領域最大的挑戰之一是森林砍伐及其對二氧化碳的影響。本季度，我們作為消費品論壇的一部分，與其他消費品公司共同發起了“森林積極聯盟”，鼓勵我們的供應商在種植我們原料所用的土地方面更加透明。最後，我們正朝著2025年實現100%可回收包裝的目標穩步邁進。

I'm proud of the fact that we've been continuing to work on these critical long-term ESG topics throughout this crisis. And with that, I hand it over to Luca.

我感到自豪的是，在整個危機期間，我們始終沒有放棄這些至關重要的長期ESG議題。於是，我把它交給了盧卡。

Thank you, Dirk, and good afternoon. Second quarter performance was solid in terms of growth, share gains, earnings and cash flow given the circumstances. We delivered positive revenue growth through a combination of resilient categories and superior execution despite facing significant disruptions and operating restrictions from the crisis.

謝謝你，德克，下午好。考慮到當時的情勢，第二季在成長、市佔率提升、獲利和現金流方面表現穩健。儘管面臨危機帶來的重大干擾和營運限制，我們仍透過韌性強的品類組合和卓越的執行力實現了正向的收入成長。

Our developed market continued to perform well, with strength in North America and Europe mass retail, confirming elevated momentum as seen in Q1. Emerging markets were significantly impacted by broad lockdowns, especially during April and into May. Despite this dynamic, we are doing well on a relative basis compared to peers as we are gaining share.

我們的已開發市場持續表現良好，北美和歐洲大眾零售市場表現強勁，證實了第一季以來的高漲動能。新興市場受到大規模封鎖的嚴重影響，尤其是在 4 月和 5 月期間。儘管存在這種動態，但與同行相比，我們的相對錶現良好，市場份額正在不斷擴大。

I would like to unpack our top line cadence to give you some context of how we ended the quarter, as that might be more indicative than the pure Q2 number. Prior to COVID, we were seeing strong momentum in both developed and emerging markets, and that was both due to snacks categories, momentum and share gains. Once we move into late March and for the month of April, we saw significant divergence between developed and emerging.

我想詳細分析我們的營收節奏，以便讓您了解我們本季的收尾情況，因為這可能比單純的第二季數據更具參考價值。在新冠疫情爆發之前，我們在已開發市場和新興市場都看到了強勁的成長勢頭，這既得益於零食品類的成長，也得益於其強勁的成長勢頭和市場份額的提升。進入三月下旬和四月，我們看到已開發國家和新興經濟體之間出現了顯著差異。

In developed markets, we saw a spike in consumption. And despite some challenges, our ability to operate was still okay. On the flip side, we enforced lockdowns and curfews in emerging markets. We encountered significant operating restrictions. These markets were most impacted in April with double-digit top line declines as high percentage of outlets were inaccessible to consumers and to us. As a result, total revenue declined low single digits in April. As we moved into May, things began to improve. And in June, our emerging market turned positive and posted low single-digit growth. We expect this trend of improving growth to continue into July as the majority of these markets are on better footing. We also expect strong demand in North America and Europe mass retail, albeit not as elevated as in H1, but total company is trending better in July than in Q2.

在已開發市場，我們看到了消費激增。儘管面臨一些挑戰，我們的營運能力仍可。另一方面，我們在新興市場實施了封鎖和宵禁。我們遇到了嚴重的營運限制。這些市場在 4 月受到的影響最大，營收出現兩位數下滑，因為很大一部分門市對消費者和我們都無法進入。因此，4月份總收入出現了個位數百分比的下降。進入五月後，情況開始好轉。6月份，我們的新興市場轉為正成長，實現了個位數低成長。我們預計這種成長改善的趨勢將持續到7月份，因為這些市場中的大多數都已步入正​​軌。我們也預期北美和歐洲大眾零售業的需求強勁，儘管不如上半年那麼高，但公司整體在 7 月的趨勢比第二季好。

Turning to Slide 11. You can see that Q2 revenue growth was driven by positive volume and pricing. This comes despite some significant mix headwinds presented by lower revenue from world travel retail and gum. Biscuits is seeing elevated demand and led growth at more than 9%. Chocolate declined slightly, but this includes 3 points of headwinds from world travel retail. In addition, chocolate was also impacted by lockdowns in emerging markets, mostly India. It is worth noting that India was nearly flat in May and posted positive growth in June. Gum and candy declined double digit, primarily driven by gum as it skews towards away-from-home consumption and convenience. This channel has seen significantly reduced traffic during the crisis.

翻到第11張幻燈片。可以看出，第二季營收成長是由銷售和價格的正面影響所推動的。儘管受到全球旅遊零售和口香糖收入下降等重大不利因素的影響，但該公司依然取得了這樣的業績。餅乾需求旺盛，成長速度超過 9%。巧克力銷量略有下降，但這其中包含了來自全球旅遊零售業的 3 個百分點的不利因素。此外，新興市場（主要是印度）的封鎖措施也對巧克力市場造成了影響。值得注意的是，印度5月份經濟幾乎持平，6月份實現了正成長。口香糖和糖果的銷售量都出現兩位數下滑，這主要是因為口香糖的銷售量下滑，因為口香糖的消費更傾向於外食和方便消費。疫情期間，該頻道流量大幅下降。

Turning to category and share highlights on Page 12. Consistent execution, preferred brands and our investments in brands and capabilities continue to drive strong share results. Year-to-date, we have held or gained share in 85% of our revenue base, and our overall share is as high as it has ever been. Biscuits and chocolate drove the overall outcome. More specifically, we gained share in the latest 3-month period across a number of our biggest markets including U.S. biscuits, Europe, with U.K. and Russia and France standing out; in EMEA, China and Vietnam biscuits, but also Australia, New Zealand and India chocolate; in Latin America, we saw some improvement in Brazil chocolate and powder beverage share, along with Mexico.

請翻到第 12 頁查看類別和分享亮點。持續穩定的執行力、受歡迎的品牌以及我們對品牌和能力的投資，持續推動強勁的市場佔有率成長。今年迄今為止，我們保持或提高了 85% 的收入份額，我們的整體份額也達到了歷史最高水平。餅乾和巧克力是最終結果的關鍵。更具體地說，在過去三個月裡，我們在多個主要市場都獲得了市場份額，包括美國餅乾市場、歐洲市場（其中英國、俄羅斯和法國表現突出）、歐洲、中東和非洲地區市場（包括中國和越南餅乾市場）以及澳大利亞、新西蘭和印度巧克力市場；在拉丁美洲市場，我們在巴西巧克力和粉末飲料市場以及墨西哥的市場份額有所提高。

Our categories held up relatively well with the exception of gum. However, it is important to note that year-to-date category growth of 4.5% doesn't reflect unmeasured channels, such as convenience and world travel retail or the lag effect of some emerging market readings.

除了口香糖之外，我們的其他類別表現都相對良好。然而，值得注意的是，今年迄今的品類成長率為 4.5%，但並未反映便利商店和世界旅遊零售等未衡量的管道，也未反映一些新興市場讀數的滯後效應。

Now let's review our profitability performance on Slide 13. As expected, our estimated COVID-related costs during the second quarter were more than $100 million, including over time, protective equipment, frontline bonuses, incremental logistics costs and lower cost absorption in emerging markets. Ex this cost, gross profit would have shown solid growth in line with last year's growth rate. In fact, volume leverage in both North America and Europe as well as cost containment efforts across the business enabled us to offset much of this on a gross profit basis as it declined less than $10 million versus previous year.

現在讓我們回顧一下第 13 張投影片上的獲利能力表現。正如預期的那樣，我們估計第二季度與 COVID 相關的成本超過 1 億美元，其中包括加班費、防護設備、第一線員工獎金、新增物流成本以及新興市場較低的成本吸收率。剔除這部分成本後，毛利將呈現穩健成長，與去年的成長率持平。事實上，北美和歐洲的銷售成長以及整個業務的成本控制措施，使我們能夠在毛利方面抵消大部分損失，毛利與上一年相比下降不到 1000 萬美元。

Operating income declined 3.8% for Q2 due to the decline in gross margin, which was partially offset by lower A&C and higher overhead due to COVID as well as the other line impacted by some legal accruals. We continue to expect COVID-related costs in the second half, however, we believe improved leverage and cost mitigation efforts will more than offset these dynamics as we progress through the second half. Especially in Q4, with Q3 still somewhat impacted.

由於毛利率下降，第二季營業收入下降了 3.8%，但部分被因 COVID 疫情導致的 A&C 費用降低和營運成本增加以及其他一些法律應計項目的影響所抵消。我們預計下半年仍將面臨與新冠疫情相關的成本，但我們相信，隨著下半年的推進，提高槓桿率和成本控制措施將足以抵消這些影響。尤其是在第四季度，第三季度仍受到一定影響。

Moving to regional performance on Slide 14. North America grew 11% driven by strong share gains and elevated biscuit consumption. Our DSD network continued to demonstrate its value in keeping shelf stock and enabling significant share gains. Gum was down double digits. North America operating income increased by more than 20%. North America will continue to grow above the historical rates, but we expect lower growth than Q2 as we move throughout the year.

第 14 頁將介紹區域表現。北美市場成長11%，主要得益於市佔率的強勁成長和餅乾消費量的上升。我們的DSD網路持續展現其在維持貨架庫存和實現顯著市場份額成長方面的價值。口香糖銷量下降了兩位數。北美營業收入成長超過 20%。北美地區的成長速度將繼續高於歷史平均水平，但我們預計隨著今年的推進，成長速度將低於第二季。

Europe revenue declined 1.2% in the quarter. Headwinds from world travel retail, which was a drag of 2.5 percentage points as well as gum and the instant consumption channels drove this dynamic. We saw strength and good execution in several key markets, including mass retail which grew high single digits, and in chocolate, where we posted significant share gains in the U.K., in France, in Russia and Benelux. Although we expect continued challenges in world travel retail, we are more constructive on the state of convenience and traditional trade, which are expected to be much less of a headwind in the second half. We saw improved exit rate in June and good growth into July. Overall, we expect EU to return to growth in Q3, unless there is a material COVID relapse.

歐洲地區本季營收下降1.2%。世界旅遊零售業的逆風（拖累了 2.5 個百分點）以及口香糖和即時消費管道的逆風都加劇了這種局面。我們在幾個關鍵市場看到了強勁的勢頭和良好的執行力，包括實現了高個位數成長的大眾零售市場，以及在英國、法國、俄羅斯和比荷盧經濟聯盟取得顯著市場份額成長的巧克力市場。儘管我們預期全球旅遊零售業將繼續面臨挑戰，但我們對便利商店和傳統貿易的狀況持較樂觀的態度，預計下半年這些產業將不再構成太多阻力。6月的退出率有所提高，7月也實現了良好的成長。總體而言，我們預計歐盟將在第三季恢復成長，除非新冠疫情出現重大反彈。

Adjusted OI dollars declined as a result of significant COVID costs and unfavorable mix. These results should improve as we progress through the second half of the year.

受新冠疫情帶來的重大成本和不利的產品組合影響，調整後的未實現營業收入下降。隨著下半年的到來，這些結果應該會有所改善。

EMEA declined 3.1% with conditions that vary greatly by market. China continued to recover, growing double digits. Southeast Asia grew mid-single digits. India declined double digit due to significant lockdowns and store closures in April and May before it turning to mid single-digit growth in June. As we move into the second half, and based on the dynamics we see today, we are expecting this improvement to continue, unless there are additional shutdowns in key markets.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區經濟下降 3.1%，各市場差異很大。中國經濟持續復甦，維持兩位數成長。東南亞經濟成長率為個位數中段。由於 4 月和 5 月實施了大規模封鎖和商店關閉措施，印度經濟出現兩位數下滑，但在 6 月轉為個位數中段成長。隨著我們進入下半年，根據我們目前看到的動態，我們預計這種改善將會持續下去，除非主要市場出現額外的停擺。

AMEA operating income dollars declined by approximately 5%, due primarily to lower-than-typical volume leverage and additional coverage-related expenses. AMEA executed well on cost containment actions.

AMEA 的營業收入下降了約 5%，主要原因是銷售槓桿作用低於平常以及額外的保險相關費用。AMEA在成本控制方面執行良好。

Latin America decreased 11% due to traditional trade disruptions in most of the key markets, while Argentina posted growth due to inflation-driven pricing. Ex Argentina, Latin America declined by 15%. Mexico declined low double digits due to a significant decline in gum and candy. In Brazil, we declined high single digits due to significant disruptions in traditional trade. Our Western Andean countries, which were among the most impacted by COVID, also declined. We did see improving share trends in several notable markets.

由於大多數主要市場出現傳統貿易中斷，拉丁美洲經濟下降了 11%，而阿根廷則由於通貨膨脹推動的價格上漲而實現了成長。除阿根廷外，拉丁美洲整體下降了15%。由於口香糖和糖果銷量大幅下降，墨西哥的銷量出現了兩位數的下滑。在巴西，由於傳統貿易受到嚴重干擾，我們的銷售額出現了接近兩位數的下滑。我們的安地斯西部國家是受新冠疫情影響最嚴重的國家之一，這些國家的疫情也出現了下滑。我們確實看到幾個重要市場的份額呈上升趨勢。

Adjusted OI dollars in Latin America declined by 78%, primarily due to headwinds associated with negative mix, under absorption and an accrual for a legal-related matter that accounted for 1/3 of the decline versus previous year. We expect the environment in Latin America to remain challenging in the second half given the restrictions in place in most markets and the impact that those restrictions are having on economic growth. We remain focused on what we can control, which is executing our plans and driving better share performance.

拉丁美洲經調整後的未實現營業收入下降了 78%，主要原因是負面的產品組合、吸收不足以及與法律相關的事項的計提，這占到與上年相比下降幅度的三分之一。鑑於大多數市場仍有限制措施，且這些限制措施對經濟成長造成了影響，我們預計下半年拉丁美洲的經濟環境仍將充滿挑戰。我們將繼續專注於我們能夠控制的事情，那就是執行我們的計劃並推動更好的股價表現。

Now turning to earnings per share on Slide 18. Q2 EPS grew 16%. Operating gains in the quarter were impacted by COVID costs, which were north of $100 million which means more than $0.07 impact.

現在就來看看第 18 張投影片中的每股盈餘。第二季每股收益成長16%。本季營業利潤受到新冠疫情相關成本的影響，這些成本超過 1 億美元，這意味著每股收益受到的影響超過 0.07 美元。

I'll now move on to our free cash flow on Slide 19. We delivered free cash flow of $1.1 billion in the first half. Strong working capital discipline was a big driver as we improved our cash conversion cycle by 8 days. We also had deferred tax payment for more than $200 million, which will mostly reverse in the second half as well as lower CapEx and cash restructuring. Our priorities for the remainder of the year stay clear, and we will continue to be disciplined.

接下來，我將在第 19 頁講解我們的自由現金流。我們上半年實現了11億美元的自由現金流。嚴格的營運資金管理是推動我們現金週轉週期縮短 8 天的重要因素。我們還有超過 2 億美元的遞延稅款支付，這筆款項將在下半年基本抵消，同時資本支出減少，現金重組也將完成。今年剩餘時間裡，我們的工作重點依然明確，我們將繼續保持自律。

I wanted to provide some thoughts on our joint ventures, specifically our participation in the successful IPO of JDE Peet's. Prior to transaction, we exchanged our JV investments for an investment in JDE Peet's. JDE Peet's then went public for EUR 31.50 per share at the end of May. The stock now trades at around EUR 38 per share, which places the value of our stake at approximately $5 billion. This was a great result as it provides more flexibility and a public bar for this financial investment.

我想就我們的合資企業，特別是我們參與 JDE Peet's 成功上市一事，提出一些想法。在交易之前，我們用我們在合資企業中的投資換取了對 JDE Peet's 的投資。JDE Peet's 隨後於 5 月底以每股 31.50 歐元的價格上市。該股票目前每股交易價格約為 38 歐元，這意味著我們持有的股份價值約為 50 億美元。這是一個非常好的結果，因為它為這項金融投資提供了更大的靈活性和公開的監管標準。

Moving to Slide 22. As previously disclosed, due to the COVID pandemic, visibility remains limited at this time in a number of key markets. As a result, we are not providing a full year financial outlook. However, we continue to expect the following for 2020: an effective tax rate in the low to mid-20s; adjusted interest expense of approximately $380 million; and we now expect exchange translation to negatively impact our reported revenue by 3% and EPS by $0.05 based on current market rate. Although we're not providing full year guidance at this time, I wanted to share some thoughts regarding how the second half will play out.

切換到第22張投影片。如前所述，由於新冠疫情的影響，目前許多主要市場的能見度仍然有限​​。因此，我們不提供全年財務展望。然而，我們仍然預計 2020 年將出現以下情況：有效稅率在 20% 左右；調整後的利息支出約為 3.8 億美元；我們現在預計，根據當前市場匯率，匯兌將對我們的報告收入產生 3% 的負面影響，每股收益將產生 0.05 美元的負面影響。雖然我們目前不提供全年業績指引，但我還是想分享一些關於下半年發展趨勢的想法。

We expect improving conditions in many markets that experienced significant store closures in late Q1 and Q2. In-home consumption is expected to be at elevated levels, which is helpful in developed markets such as North America. And we expect to make critical investments behind our brands to continue to drive momentum on a relative basis. On the flip side, we expect the negative impact to continue in some emerging markets, mostly in Latin America. World travel retail is expected to continue its negative trend. And although there is no way to know exactly how the pandemic will evolve, there will always be a potential for a second wave of shutdowns. In aggregate, we expect positive revenue and the sequential improvement in the third quarter based on what we see through month 1 of Q3.

我們預計在第一季末和第二季經歷大量門市關閉的許多市場的情況將會好轉。預計家庭消費將保持在較高水平，這對北美等已開發市場來說是有利的。我們預計將對旗下品牌進行關鍵投資，以持續保持相對成長動能。另一方面，我們預期負面影響將在一些新興市場持續存在，尤其是在拉丁美洲。世界旅遊零售業預計將持續下滑。雖然無法確切知道疫情將如何發展，但始終存在第二波封鎖的可能性。根據我們對第三季第一個月情況的觀察，我們預計第三季整體營收將為正，並實現環比成長。

With that, let's open it up for Q&A.

接下來，我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question is from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Goldman。

Two for me, if I can. I wanted to first touch on your share gains. Some of these gains, I think, are due to your North America supply chain, which obviously is quite advantaged and some perhaps due to your competitor struggles globally. But you did highlight some brand strength, other positive factors in your prepared remarks. So just as you think about your expectations for market share in the back half of the year, can you walk us through what you think some of the more sustainable drivers are. I'm guessing higher marketing spend is one of them. And maybe what drivers could back off a little bit versus the first half.

如果可以的話，我想吃兩個。我想先談談你們的股票收益。我認為，這些收益部分歸功於你們的北美供應鏈，這顯然具有相當大的優勢；部分收益可能歸功於你們的競爭對手在全球範圍內的困境。但您在事先準備好的發言稿中確實強調了一些品牌優勢和其他正面因素。所以，在您考慮下半年市佔率預期時，能否請您詳細介紹一下您認為哪些因素更具可持續性？我猜想增加行銷支出是其中原因之一。或許有些車手可以比上半場稍微放慢速度。

Ken. Yes, sure, with pleasure. If I maybe explain where are the share gains happening and then go a little bit into the drivers and then in what we think will happen. First of all, as we said in the presentation, we've gained share in 85% of our revenue base, so it's very broad-based. It is in biscuits. It's in chocolate. It's across the geographies, I would say, almost in every single market around the world and certainly not important markets. We see significant market share increase. For instance, biscuits China, biscuits U.S., biscuits in France, but also chocolate in the U.K., chocolate Australia, chocolate India. And we also see it across smaller categories. So it's very widespread. And on top of it, we see that it's our global and our local brands. It's not just one brand. It's across our brand. And one of the interesting factors that our penetration of our brand is increasing overall, and also that we see some very good repeat of those new users.

肯。當然可以，我很樂意。如果我先解釋一下市佔率成長發生在哪些方面，然後再稍微探討一下其驅動因素，以及我們認為未來會發生什麼事。首先，正如我們在演示中所說，我們已經獲得了 85% 的收入份額，所以它的基礎非常廣泛。它在餅乾裡。它含有巧克力。可以說，這種情況遍及世界各地，幾乎遍及全球所有市場，而且絕對不是什麼重要市場。我們看到市場佔有率顯著成長。例如，中國的餅乾、美國的餅乾、法國的餅乾，還有英國的巧克力、澳洲的巧克力、印度的巧克力。我們也看到這種情況出現在一些較小的類別中。所以它非常普遍。除此之外，我們也看到，這包括我們的全球品牌和本地品牌。這不僅僅是一個品牌。它貫穿我們整個品牌。有趣的是，我們的品牌滲透率總體上正在提高，我們也看到一些新用戶的重複購買率非常高。

So what is the reason? I think fundamentally, during the COVID crisis there, there are 3. First of all, as you alluded to, we have had a very good performing supply chain around to market. You could sort of say that not only in the U.S., but in other markets, we increased our share of the distribution points. Not so much because we increased our distribution, but customer service level and our on-shelf availability was better than our competition. And so for instance, in the U.S. or in other markets around the world, DSD is a key advantage.

那麼原因是什麼呢？我認為從根本上講，在新冠疫情危機期間，有三點。首先，正如您所提到的，我們擁有一條運作良好的市場供應鏈。可以說，不僅在美國，而且在其他市場，我們也增加了分銷點的份額。倒不是因為我們增加了分銷管道，而是因為我們的客戶服務水準和貨架供應都優於競爭對手。因此，例如在美國或世界其他市場，DSD 是一項關鍵優勢。

The other one is that we usually have sort of the strongest brands in our categories around the world. And consumers have been going back to the brands they know and trust. And so an Oreo, as an example, or a Milka or some of the other local brands that we have, have clear consumer trust. And we see -- that's why we see all of them increasing their share also.

另一個優點是，我們通常在全球同類產品中擁有最強大的品牌。消費者又開始回歸他們熟悉且信任的品牌。因此，以奧利奧、妙卡或其他一些本地品牌為例，它們都具有明顯的消費者信任度。我們看到——這就是為什麼我們看到它們的市場份額都在增長的原因。

And then within snacking, if you look at it sort of category by category, we are in those segments within the categories that are benefiting from at-home consumption. For instance, tablets in chocolate do better than bars or better than pralines. And in biscuits, it's your more traditional biscuits that is a segment where the consumer is going to.

然後，在零食領域，如果你按類別來看，我們處於那些受益於家庭消費的細分市場中。例如，巧克力片比巧克力棒效果更好，也比巧克力糖效果更好。而就餅乾而言，消費者更傾向購買的是比較傳統的餅乾。

I would say these are the 3 big drivers. When will they go away? Well, it's difficult to say. Supply chain, I assume that everybody is catching up on their supply chain. Although with what we are seeing in the U.S. and some other places around the world, having your supply chain perform is not as simple as it might sound. I do think that this trend to go to bigger brands and more known brands is here to stay for a while. And then the mix with the in-home consumption, I think that's going to last for a while, too. We are now clearly talking about this change to our lives continuing well into 2021.

我認為這是三大主要驅動因素。他們什麼時候才會離開？嗯，這很難說。供應鏈方面，我假設大家都在努力改進供應鏈。儘管從我們在美國和世界其他一些地方看到的情況來看，讓你的供應鏈高效運作並不像聽起來那麼簡單。我認為這種轉向更大品牌、更知名品牌的趨勢還會持續一段時間。而家庭消費與戶外購物結合的趨勢，我認為也會持續一段時間。我們現在明確地談論的是，這種生活方式的改變將持續到 2021 年。

I would also like to point out that we have momentum before the crisis. We were already increasing our market share before this started. And so underlying, there is a fundamental share increase that was taking place. I also think the repeat rates of our brands of the new users, that's important to notice. And then I talked about that increase in working media with significant increases in the second half of the year, which should also give a good pull on our brand.

我還想指出，我們在危機爆發前已經取得了一些進展。在疫情爆發之前，我們的市佔率就已經開始成長了。因此，從根本上講，股份數量正在增長。我認為關注我們品牌新用戶的重複購買率也很重要。然後我談到了媒體工作量的成長，尤其是在下半年，這將顯著提升我們的品牌影響力。

And then I think what we're doing with our business, simplifying everything, eliminating SKUs, going to fewer innovations, all that will give us even more strength in execution. So overall, I'm pretty optimistic. I think that a big part of this market share will stick.

我認為，我們正在對業務進行簡化，取消 SKU，減少創新，所有這些都將使我們在執行方面擁有更大的實力。總的來說，我相當樂觀。我認為這部分市場佔有率會維持下去。

That's helpful. And then quickly on my follow-up, speaking of the higher marketing spending, you talked about in the third quarter -- I know you're not giving guidance today, but I wanted to poke it a little bit into what you were talking about to make sure I understood. You talked about better revenue into the third quarter, and you've talked about some simplification of the business. But you've also talked about ramping up your marketing spending, like I said. So just trying to get a sense among all these factors and maybe some that I'm missing. Is it reasonable to expect improved operating income in the third quarter as well in addition to better revenue. And the reason I'm asking is The Street's modeling an increase year-on-year in your third quarter EBIT. Is this reasonable given what you know right now? Or is it really just too early to say?

那很有幫助。然後，我很快又追問了一下，關於您在第三季度提到的更高的營銷支出——我知道您今天不打算給出業績指引，但我還是想稍微探究一下您剛才所說的內容，以確保我理解正確。您提到第三季營收將有所改善，也提到簡化業務。但正如我所說，你也談到了要加大行銷投入。所以，我只是想了解所有這些因素，以及可能我遺漏的一些因素。除了營收成長外，第三季營業收入也有所提高，這種預期是否合理？我這麼問是因為華爾街預測你們第三季的息稅前利潤將年增。以你目前掌握的資訊來看，這樣做合理嗎？還是現在下結論真的為時過早？

I can maybe -- I'll...

我或許可以──我會…

Maybe, Luca, you want to take this one? Yes.

盧卡，或許你想接下這個任務？是的。

Yes. I'll -- welcome back, Ken. Nice to have you again on the line. Yes. Look, I believe it is a little bit premature to give you a precise number here, but we gave you a few indications in the prepared remarks for Q3 enough to -- simply said, we expect North America to continue with increased momentum. Certainly, we are not going to see as high of a number as we saw in Q2. Having 11% top line was fairly exceptional and 20-plus percent OI. Europe is expected to return to growth overall despite world travel retail. And I would expect, for sure, better profitability and better leverage. Some of the COVID costs will subside. AMEA as well is expected to return to growth in Q2 -- in Q3. And there should be, again, lower COVID cost and better volume outcomes.

是的。歡迎回來，肯。很高興能再次與您連線。是的。我覺得現在給出一個確切的數字還為時過早，但我們在第三季度的準備發言稿中已經給出了一些跡象——簡而言之，我們預計北美將繼續保持成長勢頭。當然，我們不會看到像第二季度那樣高的數字。營收佔比達到 11% 相當出色，未償付收入佔比超過 20%。儘管全球旅遊零售業面臨挑戰，但預計歐洲整體仍將恢復成長。我當然期望獲利能力和槓桿率能夠提升。部分新冠疫情帶來的成本將會下降。AMEA地區預計也將在第二季至第三季恢復成長。而且，新冠肺炎疫情造成的損失應該會降低，銷售量也會提高。

Latin America is, quite frankly, expected to meaningfully improve, particularly on the OI line into Q3, but we are not going to see necessarily a positive year-on-year profit. So I would say that overall top line for Mondelez in Q3 is expected to be better than Q2. As we look at July, we see good numbers coming in at this point in time. But obviously, I have to make a disclosure here, which is -- that is absent a material relapse or issue in one of the biggest market or in more than one.

坦白說，預計拉丁美洲的情況將顯著改善，尤其是在第三季的未平倉合約（OI）方面，但我們不一定會看到同比利潤為正。因此，我認為億滋國際第三季的整體營收預計將優於第二季。展望七月份，我們看到目前的數據相當不錯。但很顯然，我必須在此披露一點，那就是——除非在最大的市場之一或多個市場出現重大復發或問題。

As far as bottom line is concerned, I think there will be a sequential improvement in Q3 from where we see today. Whether it will be all the way to bright, I am not sure as there will still be some COVID-related cost and all the actions we are putting in place actually will come into full fruition in Q4. So you will see some improvements in Q3, but you will see even more in Q4 from what we see today.

就最終結果而言，我認為第三季將比目前的情況有所改善。情況是否會完全好轉，我並不確定，因為仍然會有一些與新冠疫情相關的成本，而且我們正在採取的所有措施實際上要到第四季度才能完全見效。因此，第三季你會看到一些改善，但第四季你會看到比今天更大的進步。

And your next question is from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Dirk, with some concern over economic recession in some key emerging markets, can you remind us of, I guess, Mondelez' ability to manage through these sorts of macro events in terms of down trading, unit pricing and such. And the reason I ask is with global category growth year-to-date up around 4.5% and Mondelez holding -- or gaining share in 85% of categories. I guess, what realistically would hold Mondelez back at this stage from delivering at least 3% organic growth for the year, even if global category growth slows a bit from here, let's say, due to some recession.

Dirk，鑑於一些主要新興市場出現經濟衰退，你能否提醒我們一下，Mondelez 在應對這類宏觀事件方面，例如下調交易、單位定價等方面的能力？我之所以這麼問，是因為今年迄今全球品類成長率約為 4.5%，而億滋國際則在 85% 的品類中維持或正在獲得市場份額。我想，即便全球品類成長因經濟衰退等原因而略有放緩，目前真正能阻止億滋國際實現至少 3% 的年度有機成長的因素是什麼？

Yes, I can -- first of all, good to hear you, Andrew. And yes, I can certainly explain that a little bit better. First of all, as it relates to that 4.5% growth in categories, those are the measured categories. And as we, for instance, explained world travel retail is not included in the measured channels and some of the foodservice and so on. So we think that overall, the category growth is not the 4.5% seen. That those are the channels that are more severely affected by COVID.

是的，我可以——首先，很高興聽到你的消息，安德魯。是的，我當然可以解釋得更清楚一些。首先，關於 4.5% 的類別成長率，這些是經過衡量的類別。例如，正如我們解釋的那樣，世界旅遊零售管道不包含在衡量的管道中，一些餐飲服務等也不包含在內。因此我們認為，整體而言，該品類的成長並非如預期的 4.5%。這些管道受新冠疫情的影響更為嚴重。

As it relates to our categories and our strategy in the recession, I would say that, first of all, we look back at history, and the history has shown that over -- biscuits and chocolate tend to be quite durable in a downturn in developed markets but also in emerging markets. And in fact, biscuits, in general, are not affected by the recession, and actually sometimes accelerated during the recession. Because, again, there is this switch to more in-home consumption which biscuits benefit from. Chocolate is a little bit more of a mixed picture. Some markets, it went down. Some markets, it went up. But overall, I would say it's also quite resilient with a very fast recovery as the recession starts to fade away. Candy was solid, very little change. And it's gum that suffers in a recession in our case, as we currently are seeing, but that's more driven by the fact that gum is an on-the-go product and that a lot of these channels have been closed. But also in a recession since, again, there's more in-home consumption, gum suffers.

就我們的品類和我們在經濟衰退中的策略而言，首先，我想說，回顧歷史，歷史表明，餅乾和巧克力在發達市場以及新興市場的經濟低迷時期往往具有相當強的韌性。事實上，餅乾整體上不受經濟衰退的影響，在經濟衰退期間，餅乾的銷售有時反而會成長。因為，再次強調，家庭消費的增加對餅乾有利。巧克力的情況則比較複雜。有些市場下跌了。有些市場上漲了。但總的來說，我認為它也具有相當強的韌性，隨著經濟衰退開始消退，復甦速度會非常快。糖果品質穩定，變化不大。在我們這裡，經濟衰退對口香糖的影響最大，正如我們目前所看到的，但這更多是由於口香糖是一種方便攜帶的產品，而許多此類管道都已關閉。但在經濟衰退時期，由於居家消費增加，口香糖也受到影響。

As it relates to the price points, I think we've done a good job around the world. I'm thinking India or Brazil or Mexico of -- overall, making our products quite affordable and covering all the price points. And I think we are set up now to really play in the different segments that you will see.

就價格而言，我認為我們在全球範圍內都做得很好。我想到的是印度、巴西或墨西哥——總而言之，要讓我們的產品價格實惠，覆蓋所有價格點。我認為我們現在已經做好準備，可以在你們將會看到的各個環節中真正發揮作用。

Another thing, I think, that's important in our categories as it relates to a recession, is that private label penetration, particularly in emerging markets, is very limited compared to other food categories. So let's say that we were expecting the categories to grow about 3% precrisis. It may be that they slowed down slightly. But I think together with our market share gains and the opportunities that we have as it relates to adjacencies to our categories, we should be able to get to that level as you were talking about.

我認為，就我們所處的品類而言，與經濟衰退相關的另一個重要因素是，自有品牌滲透率，尤其是在新興市場，與其他食品品類相比非常有限。假設我們在危機前預期這些類別將成長約 3%。或許他們稍微放慢了速度。但我認為，憑藉我們市場份額的成長以及我們在與我們所在類別相關的領域所擁有的機會，我們應該能夠達到你剛才所說的水平。

I also think internally, we are stronger. We have invested more in our brands. I think our brands today are stronger than they were 2, 3 years ago. We are modernizing our portfolio. We have communications that are more effective. Execution is good. In the past, our execution was maybe sometimes not as great. Now supplies in North America is an example for us. And so I don't see us as a company not being able to deal with the recession. I think we can enter it with a position of strength as it relates to execution and being present.

我也認為，從內部來看，我們更強大了。我們加大了對旗下品牌的投入。我認為我們現在的品牌比兩三年前更強大。我們正在對產品組合進行現代化改造。我們有更有效的溝通方式。執行得很好。過去，我們的執行力有時可能不夠好。現在北美地區的供應情況可以提供我們借鏡。因此，我不認為我們公司無法應對經濟衰退。我認為，就執行力和臨場表現而言，我們可以以強大的優勢進入這個領域。

And so I believe that overall, we have work to do, don't get me wrong. For instance, we are working quite hard on what we call revenue growth management to make sure that we get the right price points completely squared away. A lot of price pack architecture, understanding what will happen in the different channels. So all the business units are hard at work to prepare for that. But I do think that we are set up to do well. And if we can keep the momentum going on our market share, I would agree with you. I don't see a reason why we cannot deliver against our long-term algorithm.

所以總的來說，我認為我們還有很多工作要做，別誤會我的意思。例如，我們正在努力進行所謂的收入成長管理，以確保我們完全確定合適的價格點。很多價格方案架構，了解不同通路會發生什麼事。因此，所有業務部門都在努力為此做好準備。但我認為我們已經做好了充分的準備，能夠取得好成績。如果我們能保持市場佔有率成長的勢頭，我同意你的看法。我看不出我們有什麼理由無法實現我們的長期演算法目標。

And your next question is from the line of Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的達拉‧莫森尼安。

So clearly, strong organic sales growth in the U.S. in the quarter. Can you unpack how much of that was true sort of underlying demand at retail? Was there any retailer inventory build? Or was this more strong retail sales growth? And just the sustainability of that sales growth going forward, given it looks like U.S. trends slowed a bit sequentially. And the scanner data towards the end of the quarter would be helpful.

顯然，本季美國市場的有機銷售額實現了強勁成長。你能分析一下其中有多少是零售業真正的潛在需求嗎？零售商是否有囤貨？或者，這是否意味著零售銷售的強勁成長？而這種銷售成長能否持續下去，還要看美國市場的趨勢是否已經放緩。季度末的掃描器資料會很有幫助。

Yes. Maybe I'll...

是的。或許我會…

Okay.

好的。

No, go on, Dirk. Go on.

不，繼續，德克。繼續。

Okay. Well, I would say that the reason of the increased sales in the U.S. is driven by the biscuits segment. And the biscuits segment is heavily influenced by in-home consumption. And as long as the consumer will be more at home and more consuming at home, I think we will see an increase in our sales in the U.S. versus previous year. Of course, in the beginning, at the start of the crisis, there was some -- a little bit of pantry loading, but that is out of the equation now. So what we are seeing now is continued consumption, I would say. And I would expect that sort of foreseeable future, not a change in that in-home consumption phenomenon.

好的。我認為，美國銷售額成長的原因是餅乾類別的成長。餅乾市場很大程度上受到家庭消費的影響。只要消費者待在家裡的時間更多，在家消費的時間也更多，我認為我們在美國的銷售額就會比前一年有所成長。當然，在危機初期，確實有一些人囤積了一些食品，但現在已經不可能了。所以，我認為我們現在看到的是持續的消費。我預期在可預見的未來，這種家庭消費現像不會改變。

Now to be clear, gum is the contrary of that. It's very negatively impacted by that in-home consumption. It skews out-of-home, it's on-the-go consumption. And so that's going to be lower during the crisis.

需要明確的是，口香糖恰恰相反。它受到家庭消費的非常不利影響。它偏向外出消費，也就是行動消費。因此，危機期間這個數字會更低。

As it relates to the trade, if anything, I would say that the trade inventories at the moment are low because it has been difficult to keep up with demand. We significantly have reduced our assortment of SKUs just to provide a good customer service. And so if anything, I would say, as our demand would slow down a little bit, that will give us an opportunity to bring the trade stocks back in line with where they should be. So from my perspective, I feel pretty strong, certainly about Q3 and Q4 in U.S., I don't really expect -- it might slow down a little bit, but we're still in high single-digit growth rates, to my opinion, which is much better than it was in the past. Luca, go ahead.

就貿易而言，如果非要說有什麼變化的話，那就是目前的貿易庫存較低，因為很難滿足需求。為了提供良好的客戶服務，我們大幅減少了商品種類。因此，我認為，隨著我們的需求略微放緩，這將給我們一個機會，將貿易庫存恢復到應有的水準。所以從我的角度來看，我對美國第三季和第四季的情況感覺相當樂觀，我並不認為——可能會稍微放緩一些，但依我之見，我們仍然保持著較高的個位數成長率，這比過去的情況要好得多。盧卡，你先來。

Yes. No, I second all the points you made. And to be -- by transparent as we usually are, where we can be -- trade stock is lower in the U.S. than it used to be. And it is not the only place where we have lower trade stock. And just to give you another data point, you're absolutely right that there was a little bit of a slowdown in consumption. But as we look at some of the numbers we have for July, it feels like there is still opportunities for us to grow as Dirk says in the high single-digit territory. So we feel good about what we see.

是的。不，我完全同意你提出的所有觀點。而且，正如我們通常所希望的那樣，只要我們能夠做到透明，就必須承認，美國的貿易存量比以前要低。而且，這並非我們唯一一個貿易庫存較低的地方。再補充一點數據，您說的完全正確，消費確實略有放緩。但當我們查看七月份的一些數據時，感覺我們仍然有機會實現像德克所說的那樣的高個位數成長。所以我們對所看到的感到滿意。

As Dirk pointed out, it is true that gum is a little bit on a downtrend at the moment. But I would also say that it is sequentially improving. And the last point I'd like to make is, particularly in candies like Swedish Fish and Sour Patch, we are seeing quite a bit of growth at the moment as well. So all is pointing in the direction of continued momentum, albeit it might not be the 11% that you saw in Q2. Might be a little bit lower.

正如德克指出的那樣，口香糖目前確實略呈下滑趨勢。但我還要說，情況正在逐漸改善。最後我想指出的是，尤其是在瑞典魚糖和酸味軟糖這類糖果領域，我們目前也看到了相當大的成長。所以一切跡像都顯示成長動能將持續，儘管可能不會達到第二季11%的水準。可能還會低一點。

And your next question is from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭。

Bryan, you might be on mute.

布萊恩，你可能處於靜音狀態。

And the next question is from the line of John Baumgartner with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的約翰·鮑姆加特納。

I guess one aspect of your revenue growth story over time is that penetration rates across emerging markets are still low and the white space opportunity can be still fairly impactful. So in the context of the fallout from COVID, to what extent is that kind of creating delays against the plan to enter new points of distribution or causing you to reprioritize your growth drivers over the next year or so.

我認為，隨著時間的推移，你們的收入成長故事的一個面向是，新興市場的滲透率仍然很低，空白市場的機會仍然可能產生相當大的影響。因此，在新冠疫情的影響下，這種影響在多大程度上會延誤您進入新的分銷點的計劃，或者導致您在未來一年左右重新調整增長動力的優先順序？

At this stage, it doesn't feel to us that we need to reprioritize. We feel that a lot of the slowdown that you've seen in emerging markets has really come directly related to the COVID crisis, and the fact that consumers were already locked down or distributors couldn't operate or the stores were closed. And as we open up the channels, we will see to which levels we go back. If I would take India as an example, India, of course, in April was not that great. In May, it was back to flat versus last year; and in June, started to show low single-digit growth versus last year; in July, they will be higher than that. Will India go back to double-digit growth in the coming months? Maybe not. But if India delivers us a 6%, 7%, 8% top line growth, that's more than enough for us to keep on going on our plan. We were planning to expand our distribution in India for the year in 100,000 stores or more. We probably had to slow that down a little bit during the COVID crisis, but we are planning to pick it right up where we left it off and keep on going. At this stage -- and India is an example for what we see in other countries. So for me, at this stage, there is no reason to change our strategy. We might have, at this stage, maybe a quarter of delay. But we will try to catch up as much as we can. And certainly, for '21, we are planning to keep on going in the direction that we had set.

現階段，我們覺得沒有必要重新調整優先順序。我們認為，新興市場經濟放緩很大程度上與新冠疫情危機直接相關，因為消費者已被封鎖在家，分銷商無法運營，商店也已關閉。隨著通路的開放，我們將看到我們會回到哪個層次。如果我以印度為例，當然，四月的印度情況並不樂觀。5月份與去年同期持平；6月份開始出現與去年同期相比的個位數低成長；7月份將高於這個數字。印度未來幾個月能否重回兩位數成長？或許不是。但如果印度能為我們帶來 6%、7%、8% 的營收成長，那就足以讓我們繼續執行我們的計畫了。我們計劃今年將我們在印度的分銷管道擴大到 10 萬家或更多門市。在新冠疫情危機期間，我們可能必須稍微放慢速度，但我們計劃恢復正常進度，繼續前進。現階段－印度就是一個例子，可以說明我們在其他國家看到的情況。所以對我來說，現階段沒有理由改變我們的策略。現階段，我們可能會有四分之一的延誤。但我們會盡力追趕。當然，對於 2021 年，我們計劃繼續沿著我們已經確定的方向前進。

And your next question is from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.

你的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

I just had 2 quick questions sort of related, but I'm just curious. We know that the gum category was a pretty significant detractor from the quarter, the world travel retail and away from home. Can you say how much of those were dragging on revenue in the quarter. And then I guess somewhat related to that, I'm curious, if you look at -- you defined the COVID cost. You also, I think you have indicated there's been some benefits from leverage and some of your own expense control to overcome that. Where would net COVID costs come off for the quarter if you were to kind of put that against the savings you realized in the quarter.

我有兩個相關的小問題，只是好奇而已。我們知道，口香糖類別是本季全球旅遊零售和非家庭消費領域相當大的拖累因素。你能說說這些項目對本季營收造成了多大的影響嗎？然後，我想這與此有些關聯，我很好奇，如果你看一下──你對新冠疫情成本的定義。我認為您也已經表明，利用槓桿和控制自身支出來克服這個問題，已經取得了一些好處。如果將本季新冠疫情淨成本與本季實現的節省額進行對比，那麼本季新冠疫情淨成本該從哪裡扣除呢？

Yes. I'll start and then...

是的。我先開始，然後…

I think that sounds one for you, Luca.

我覺得這很適合你，盧卡。

Yes. I'll take this. So Chris, I think you know that gum is around about 7% of our revenue. And the -- there was a material decline in Q2. It was in the tune of, I would say, 35%, 40% in total, depending on the market. It is somewhat driven by share, but 80% of it is due to market, quite frankly. The market is really being impacted by all these shutdowns. And we are told that it is very difficult to do with the mask as well in certain places. So we saw a little bit of an issue in that market.

是的。我要這個。克里斯，我想你應該知道口香糖約占我們收入的 7%。而且——第二季度出現了實質下滑。總的來說，大概在 35% 到 40% 之間，取決於市場狀況。坦白說，這在一定程度上受市場份額驅動，但其中 80% 還是市場因素造成的。市場確實受到了這些停工的影響。據說在某些地方戴著口罩也很難做到這一點。所以我們發現那個市場有一些問題。

Having said that, as we look at July, we see it coming better. I called it out in the U.S., but it is also in other markets. I can tell you, one notable one for us is China. In Latin America, though, we still see a bit of a continued challenge, particularly in Mexico and Andean.

話雖如此，展望七月份，我們認為情況會好轉。我在美國就指出了這一點，但其他市場也有這種情況。我可以告訴你，對我們來說，中國是一個值得關注的國家。不過，在拉丁美洲，我們仍然看到一些持續的挑戰，尤其是在墨西哥和安第斯地區。

Then world travel retail, it is, give or take, $0.25 billion business for the year, and it was nearly 0 in Q2. We expect it to improve, particularly towards Q4, but it was a material drag. We called out in the prepared remarks, both the impact on Europe and chocolate, and it is 2.5, 3 points of a drag both on Europe, which declined 1-plus percent. So you can do the math of how much Europe grew, excluding world travel retail. And the same on chocolate, that was almost flat, but it would have been much better. So as we look forward, as I said, we feel quite good about Europe in Q3. Europe was another one that was impacted a little bit by trade destock in Q2 as well, so we see that coming a little bit back in Q3. And importantly, in chocolate, across the board, we see quite solid category growth at this point and share as well. The biggest differential in chocolate is going to be India coming back. And as I said, India closed the quarter in June in good growth territory. And as we look at July, specifically, India is quite solid. So we would expect India to be in a good growth territory in Q3. So that gives you a little bit a sense of these headwinds and how they impacted the quarter for us.

然後是世界旅遊零售業，全年業務額約 2.5 億美元，第二季幾乎為零。我們預計情況會有所改善，尤其是在第四季度，但這確實是一個實質的拖累因素。我們在事先準備好的演講稿中指出，這對歐洲和巧克力產業都產生了影響，對歐洲經濟造成了 2.5 到 3 個百分點的拖累，歐洲經濟下降了 1% 以上。所以你可以計算一下，在不考慮全球旅遊零售的情況下，歐洲的成長幅度是多少。巧克力也是一樣，幾乎沒什麼味道，但如果再好一點就更好了。展望未來，正如我所說，我們對歐洲第三季的情況感到非常樂觀。歐洲在第二季也受到了貿易去庫存的影響，所以我們看到這種情況在第三季有所改善。而且重要的是，就巧克力而言，目前我們看到品類整體成長相當穩健，市佔率也相當可觀。巧克力市場最大的變化將取決於印度市場的回歸。正如我所說，印度6月份季度末的成長勢頭良好。具體來看7月份，印度的表現相當穩健。因此，我們預計印度在第三季將處於良好的成長狀態。這樣您就能對這些不利因素以及它們對我們本​​季業績的影響有一定了解了。

On the COVID, Dirk?

關於新冠疫​​情，德克？

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Yes. Should I go on the -- so the COVID cost, look, they -- we had more than $100 million in the GP line, and we have another $20 million, $25 million in the overhead line. So I would call it, for lack of a better number, $130-plus million of an impact.

是的。我是否應該繼續說——所以新冠疫情造成的損失，你看，他們——我們在普通股線路上有超過 1 億美元的損失，我們在架空線路上還有 2000 萬到 2500 萬美元的損失。因此，如果非要給出一個更準確的數字，我會稱之為超過 1.3 億美元的影響。

We did cut travel, clearly, but the biggest upside, both in terms of switching from nonworking media to working media, other promotional spending items, some cost containment actions that we are taking in our factories. They had an impact that if I had to guess, it would be around about $20 million in Q2. The big upside for all these actions is going to come in the second part of the year and specifically in Q4. I think you will see in Q4, these cost savings being meaningful and total profit being materially better than it is today or in Q3 for that matter. Both because this will come to fruition and also because the COVID-related cost in Q4 will subside in our current outlook. So we will see what those costs are exactly. But that's the -- how we see things at the moment.

我們確實削減了差旅，這是顯而易見的，但最大的好處在於，無論是從非工作媒體轉向工作媒體，還是其他促銷支出項目，以及我們在工廠採取的一些成本控制措施。如果讓我猜測的話，它們的影響在第二季度應該在 2000 萬美元左右。所有這些措施的最大好處將在今年下半年，特別是第四季顯現。我認為在第四季度，你會看到這些成本節約是有意義的，總利潤將比現在或第三季度有顯著提高。這不僅是因為此事終將實現，也是因為根據我們目前的預期，第四季與新冠疫情相關的成本將會下降。所以我們會看看這些成本究竟是多少。但這就是我們目前對事物的看法。

You have the next question from Bryan Spillane, again, with Bank of America.

接下來這個問題同樣來自布萊恩·斯皮蘭，他是美國銀行的代表。

So I just wanted to go back to -- I think it might be related to John Baumgartner's question. But Dirk, you -- in the prepared remarks, you talked about SKU reduction and also, I guess, a slowing of some of the new product introductions. So I just wanted to know, a, is that more of a near-term response? Would the SKU reduction at all in the near term create any kind of drag on revenues. But then more kind of longer term, how does that square with at the presentation you made at CAGNY, where you talked about channel expansion, adjacent categories as part of the growth agenda. So just trying to square kind of SKU reduction and fewer new product introductions with how that sort of relates to the growth -- you've presented back at CAGNY.

所以我只是想回到——我認為這可能與約翰·鮑姆加特納的問題有關。但德克，你在準備好的演講稿中談到了 SKU 減少，而且，我想，也談到了放緩一些新產品的推出。所以我想知道，a，這更像是一種短期應對措施嗎？短期內減少 SKU 是否會對收入造成任何拖累？但從更長遠的角度來看，這與你在 CAGNY 會議上所做的演講有何關聯？你在演講中談到了通路擴張、相鄰類別作為成長計畫的一部分。所以，我只是想弄清楚 SKU 減少和新產品推出減少與成長之間的關係——您在 CAGNY 上已經做過報告。

Yes, yes. Well, in a nutshell, it's all part of the same thinking. The way I would try to explain it is that if you look at our business, we have an opportunity to simplify our business. And my experience in many other consumer goods companies is that, in general, what has happened over the years is that people are chasing growth. And as a consequence, they keep on launching new products. And that gives you a short-term benefit. But at a certain stage, you need to clean that up. You need to look at your SKUs, you need to take a look at your innovation pipeline and sometimes also at your brands and say, can this be simpler. But it's always a big discussion because the teams feel uncomfortable doing it. Although if you maintain the same shelf space, and I've done it several times in my career, what you will see is that not only do your sales increase because now the best-selling items get more space. Your supply chain costs go down because of longer runs, less changeovers, less inventory, less waste. And it also has a big benefit on your cash. So it's a good exercise to do. You have to think about us having thousands of SKUs, and every year, a few thousand of innovation projects, a lot of small ones. And to be frank, it's -- we were looking for a reason to break this chain because we do believe there's a much better way to do this.

是的，是的。簡而言之，這一切都是同一種思考方式。我的解釋方式是，如果你審視我們的業務，你會發現我們有機會簡化我們的業務。我在許多其他消費品公司的經驗是，總的來說，這些年來發生的情況是，人們正在追求成長。因此，他們不斷推出新產品。這會為你帶來短期利益。但到了某個階段，你需要清理掉這些垃圾。你需要審視你的 SKU，你需要審視你的創新流程，有時還需要審視你的品牌，然後問問自己，這是否可以更簡單。但這始終是個熱門話題，因為球隊覺得這樣做不自在。雖然如果你保持相同的貨架空間（我在職業生涯中已經多次這樣做過），你會發現，不僅銷量會增加，因為暢銷商品現在有了更多的空間。由於生產週期延長、換線次數減少、庫存減少、浪費減少，您的供應鏈成本會降低。而且它還能為你的現金帶來很大的好處。所以這是一個很好的鍛鍊方法。你要考慮到我們有成千上萬個 SKU，而且每年都有數千個創新項目，其中許多都是小項目。坦白說，我們一直在尋找打破這個循環的理由，因為我們相信肯定有更好的方法來做這件事。

The reason why we want to do it now, we want to reaccelerate -- elevate it now is that, I would say, the stars have lined up. The clients want great customer service, they want a cleaner shelf, they want to make sure that they can serve their customers, and we have the same initiative. So we were already obliged in this crisis to work with a much smaller set of SKUs in order to make sure that the key SKUs are on the shelf. And what do we see? Our sales are better, the shelf looks cleaner and we get some benefits from it. So we're kind of pushing through using the opportunity to say, this is the moment we do it. Those 25% SKUs represent less than 2% of our sales. And I think we will see no effect from taking them out.

我們現在想做這件事，我們想重新加速——提升它——的原因是，我認為，時機已經成熟。客戶希望獲得優質的客戶服務，希望貨架更整潔，希望確保能夠服務好他們的客戶，而我們也秉持著同樣的理念。因此，在這場危機中，我們已經不得不減少 SKU 的數量，以確保關鍵 SKU 能夠上架。我們看到了什麼？我們的銷售情況更好了，貨架看起來更整潔了，我們也從中獲得了一些好處。所以我們正在抓住這個機會，大力推進，並表示：就是現在，我們要做這件事。這 25% 的 SKU 僅占我們銷售額的不到 2%。我認為移除它們不會產生任何影響。

Now it's not in one go. This takes a while. It's going to run over a few months. And we probably -- out of those 25% of SKUs, somewhere at the beginning of next year. That doesn't mean that we will not do channel expansion and adjacency. The net -- the 25% is net. It means that we will launch a number of new items particularly focused on price pack architecture to hit those price points that we need in specific channels and specific sizes for channels. Or we need it because of the revenue growth management that we are applying. And we also will launch a number of items in adjacencies. So the 25% is net of all that. So I see it as part of the same strategy. And I'm really looking forward to be at the other end of this because I think we will have a much cleaner SKU portfolio, a much cleaner innovation portfolio, and hopefully, we can also clean up a few brands so that we're lean as a company at the end of this.

現在不是一次性完成的了。這需要一些時間。它將持續幾個月。我們可能——在這 25% 的 SKU 中——在明年年初的某個時候。但這並不意味著我們不會進行頻道擴展和鄰接。淨額——25%是淨額。這意味著我們將推出一系列新產品，尤其註重價格包裝架構，以達到我們在特定管道和特定尺寸管道中所需的價格點。或者，我們需要它是因為我們正在實施的收入成長管理策略。我們也將推出一系列相關產品。所以，這 25% 是扣除所有這些因素後的淨值。所以我認為這是同一策略的一部分。我非常期待這一切的結束，因為我認為我們將擁有一個更精簡的 SKU 產品組合、一個更精簡的創新產品組合，並且希望我們還能清理一些品牌，以便最終使公司更加精簡。

And your next question is from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自 Alexia Howard 與 Bernstein 的對話。

A couple of questions from me. Firstly, you've called out the negative mix impact of, I think, minus 2.6% this time. Could you help us understand what was driving that, and whether that headwind is expected to continue into the second half? And then my second question is just around the e-commerce dynamics as we think about the U.S., Europe and China. How fast is e-commerce breaking out in each of those areas. And do you expect that to continue?

我有幾個問題。首先，你指出了這次的負面影響，我認為是 -2.6%。您能否幫助我們了解造成這種情況的原因，以及這種不利因素預計是否會持續到下半年？我的第二個問題是關於美國、歐洲和中國的電子商務動態。電子商務在這些領域的發展速度有多快？你認為這種情況會持續下去嗎？

Maybe, Luca, you do the first one on the mix and I'll do e-commerce?

盧卡，或許你可以先做混音裡的第一首歌，我來做電商那首？

Absolutely. Let's do that. Let's team up here. So on the negative mix impact, 100% of it is attributable to 2 categories, I would say, world travel retail which is a business that has quite good margins. We sell predominantly Toblerone there, which is a great brand with quite solid gross margin, and that's the #1 driver. And the other one is the gum category that, as I called out before, it declined 35%, 40%. I said about world travel retail that it was almost 0 in the quarter, so I expect an improvement, particularly in Q4 around that business. And equally for gum, I expect a material improvement, particularly as we exit the year. I'm not sure it will improve dramatically in Q3. But certainly, as the situation stabilizes and trade starts to be open particularly in emerging markets, I mean traditional trade, we expect to see a gradual improvement compared to the current declines in gum. So the mix situation should improve throughout the year. And it has always been a fairly neutral number for us, I would say, as some emerging markets have a little bit of lower margins than some of the developed markets. And I was happy we were keeping it in control quite well. Obviously, gum and world travel retail are a little bit of a driver at this point in time.

絕對地。那就這麼做吧。我們合作吧。因此，就負面組合影響而言，我認為 100% 都歸因於兩個類別，即世界旅遊零售，這是一個利潤率相當不錯的業務。我們在那裡主要銷售 Toblerone 巧克力，這是一個毛利率相當可觀的優秀品牌，這是最重要的驅動因素。另一個類別是口香糖，正如我之前提到的，它的銷量下降了 35% 到 40%。我之前說過，本季全球旅遊零售業務幾乎為零，所以我預計情況會有所改善，尤其是在第四季。同樣，對於口香糖而言，我預計會有實質的改善，尤其是在今年即將結束之際。我不確定第三季情況是否會有顯著改善。但可以肯定的是，隨著局勢穩定，貿易開始開放，尤其是在新興市場（我是指傳統貿易），我們預計口香糖的銷售量將比目前下降的趨勢逐步改善。因此，今年的市場混合狀況應該會有所改善。對我們來說，這始終是一個相當中性的數字，因為一些新興市場的利潤率比一些已開發市場要低一些。我很欣慰我們能很好地控制住局面。顯然，口香糖和全球旅遊零售業在目前這個階段扮演了一定的推動作用。

And then to link in with e-commerce. So the number on e-commerce are a growth of 91% in Q2. So e-commerce last year was about 3% of our net revenue. In Q1 of this year, it was 3.5%. And in Q2, it's 6%. The biggest increase we saw was in the U.S., close to 200% increase. And that was driven by the fact that people that already shopped online bought more online, but also a significant amount of first-timers that started to buy their groceries online. And so the penetration of last year of e-commerce went from 4% to 9%. So we do expect that e-commerce will remain a large part of our U.S. business after the crisis.

然後與電子商務對接。因此，第二季電子商務數據成長了 91%。所以去年電子商務約占我們淨收入的3%。今年第一季度，這一數字為 3.5%。第二季度，這一比例為 6%。我們看到的最大增幅出現在美國，增幅接近 200%。這主要是因為原本就習慣網購的人增加了網購量，同時也有大量新用戶開始在網路上購買雜貨。因此，去年電子商務的滲透率從 4% 提高到了 9%。因此，我們預計危機過後，電子商務仍將是我們美國業務的重要組成部分。

The growth rates are high across all platforms, click and collect, and delivery. And also our market share we gained, for instance, about 4 points of market share in biscuits online. And so we had already a good momentum before the crisis, and we've doubled down. Of course, in click and collect, since we had a very strong performance of our DSD operation and since they picked the products out of the store that has helped our performance.

所有平台（包括線上訂購線下取貨和送貨上門）的成長率都很高。此外，我們的市佔率也得到了提升，例如，我們在餅乾的線上市佔率提升了約 4 個百分點。因此，在危機爆發前我們已經取得了良好的發展勢頭，現在我們更是加倍投入。當然，在點擊提貨方面，由於我們的 DSD 營運表現非常出色，而且顧客可以從商店挑選商品，這對我們的業績有所幫助。

As we go to Europe, we're talking about growth in U.K. and France, which was 100% and 50%, respectively. So also very, very strong growth. And China, where e-commerce is already 18% of our sales, we had a growth of 20%, which is consistent with the growth that we saw in '19. The penetration there is already very high compared to our other markets around the world. In fact, if I reflect on e-commerce, I think we've got good momentum. We are increasing our market shares. We have some PPA gaps. We cannot yet always offer the consumer the sizes at the prices that they want. So we will continue to launch e-commerce specific packs, which is a little bit more difficult in click and collect. And we are also further investing in people and in infrastructure. So overall, we see very strong momentum in e-commerce.

談到歐洲，我們談到英國和法國的成長，分別達到了 100% 和 50%。所以成長也非常非常強勁。在中國，電子商務已經占我們銷售額的 18%，我們實現了 20% 的成長，這與我們 2019 年的成長一致。與我們在全球其他市場相比，該市場的滲透率已經非常高了。事實上，如果我回顧一下電子商務，我認為我們目前發展勢頭良好。我們的市場佔有率正在不斷擴大。我們存在一些PPA缺口。我們目前還無法始終以消費者想要的價格提供他們想要的尺寸。因此，我們將繼續推出電商專用包裝，但這在點擊提貨模式下會稍微困難一些。我們也正在加大對人才和基礎建設的投資。總體而言，我們看到電子商務發展勢頭非常強勁。

And your next question is from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的傑森·英格利希。

I wanted to come back to the productivity comments, and it sounds like you have a lot of initiatives underway. Obviously, cutting 25% of SKUs and the impacts on your supply chain can be quite robust. I think your productivity has been tracking south of 2%. Net productivity fell up to 2% of COGS the last year or 2. A, is that right? And b, as we think about the sort of run rate into the fourth quarter, where do you think that figure's going to fall by the time we hit the fourth quarter.

我想回到關於生產力的話題，聽起來你們有很多專案正在進行中。顯然，削減 25% 的 SKU 對供應鏈的影響可能相當巨大。我認為你的生產力一直低於 2%。過去一兩年，淨生產力下降了高達銷售成本的 2%。 A，是這樣嗎？其次，當我們考慮第四節的運行率時，你認為到第四節開始時，這個數字會是多少？

Yes. Maybe I'll comment on this, and then Dirk can chip in. I think you got the number on about right. There have been quarters where the number has been a little bit higher, quarters where the number has been a little bit lower. And remember, the impact that is due to what we call supply chain reinvention is a little bit lower than it has been in the past. We count on volume leverage above all to get our productivities stepping up. We count on other small changes that we're going to make in some places and bigger one and others. And we count on this concept of continuous improvement. We have a new leader in supply chain, and she has developed quite a bit of a strategy. And I think we have what it takes to continue to deliver profit through productivity.

是的。或許我會對此發表一些看法，然後德克也可以補充一些內容。我覺得你算的數字基本上正確。有些季度這個數字略高一些，有些季度這個數字略低一些。請記住，我們所說的供應鏈重塑所帶來的影響，比過去小。我們主要依靠規模經濟來提高生產效率。我們預計在某些地方會做出一些小的改變，而在其他地方則會做出一些更大的改變。我們依靠的是持續改善的理念。我們供應鏈部門迎來了一位新領導，她制定了一套相當完善的策略。我認為我們有能力透過提高生產力來繼續創造利潤。

To your point, obviously, when you look at some of the numbers across the board, you can realize that productivity in Latin America this quarter wasn't great because of clear volume declines. And if you talk about productivities, including COVID costs, productivities haven't been great in Q2 overall as we had to incur additional cost. You will see an improvement in Q3. And in Q4, you will see a full effect of COVID costs coming down quite a bit. And also on the flip side, you will see material cost savings that we are about to implement, and we have, for some part, already implemented in terms of tightening the belt, not only in the supply chain, but also in the overhead area. So all of this should come to maximum fruition in Q4.

你說的沒錯，顯然，從整體數據來看，由於銷售量明顯下降，拉丁美洲本季的生產力並不理想。如果談到生產力，包括新冠疫情成本在內，第二季的整體生產力並不理想，因為我們必須承擔額外的成本。第三季情況會有所改善。到了第四季度，您將會看到新冠疫情帶來的成本大幅下降，進而產生全面影響。另一方面，您將會看到我們即將實施的材料成本節約措施，而且在某種程度上，我們已經透過收緊開支來實施這些措施，不僅在供應鏈方面，而且在管理費用方面也是如此。因此，所有這些成果都應該在第四季得到最大程度的實現。

Okay. I guess what I was really angling at was it sounds like you're going to have a very large productivity year in 2021. Because if you hit the run rate in 4Q, that's a lot of spillover. And it sounds like some of these initiatives, you're not even going to have fully impacted until you bleed into the early next year. So I'm going to try one more time to come back at that number. That legacy sort of 2%, what do you think it might look like next year in context of all these initiatives?

好的。我真正想說的是，聽起來你2021年將會是生產力非常高的一年。因為如果你在第四季達到預期的出場率，將會產生很大的外溢效應。聽起來，其中一些舉措的影響甚至要到明年年初才能完全顯現。所以我打算再試一次，爭取答對那個數字。你認為在所有這些措施的背景下，明年這部分2%的傳承份額會是什麼樣子？

Look, it should be better than -- quite honestly, than that number. That is the expectation, obviously. Having said that, we don't know exactly how Q3 and Q4 will play out, imagine about 2021. But do we expect by lapping some of these extra COVID costs and the fact that, as you pointed out correctly, we are having a spillover impact into next year of all these cost savings. Do we expect the benefit? Yes, absolutely. I think the counter to that is, in some cases, a little bit of more inflation around certain cost areas. But overall, the simple straight answer is, do we expect that the productivities next year? At this point, I would say so.

說實話，它應該比那個數字好。這顯然是人們的預期。話雖如此，我們無法確切知道第三季和第四季的情況會如何，更無法想像2021年會怎樣。但是，我們是否可以預期，透過抵消部分額外的 COVID 成本，以及正如您所指出的，所有這些成本節約都會對明年產生溢出效應？我們期待獲得收益嗎？是的，絕對的。我認為應對之策是，在某些情況下，某些成本領域的通貨膨脹可能會略有上升。但總的來說，簡單直接的答案是，我們預期明年的生產力會如何？目前來看，我認為是這樣。

And your final question is from the line of David Palmer with Evercore ISI.

最後一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

Thanks for your earlier comments on Europe. It sounds like the trade shipment timing and the travel channel each hurt the second quarter organic revenue. You made also a comment, I think it was an answer to a question, that you would get back to growth in the third quarter. Is that because of the shift in retail inventory? Or is there other consumer or channel trends that are giving you confidence into the second half in Europe?

感謝您之前對歐洲的評論。看來貿易運輸時間和旅遊管道都對第二季的有機收入造成了影響。你也發表了一番評論，我想那應該是對某個問題的回答，你說第三季你們會恢復成長。這是由於零售庫存的變化造成的嗎？或者，還有哪些消費者或通路趨勢讓您對歐洲下半年市場充滿信心？

Yes. I would say that in Europe, if you exclude -- because for historical reasons, we've always added world travel retail into our European numbers. And so the number you've always seen includes world travel retail. Now world travel retail in this quarter is virtually 0 because there was -- the duty free shops were closed. If you take that out, Europe was already growing low single digit but it was growing. The reason why it was not higher than low single digit is that they have a number of other channels, particularly foodservice, and impulse, so convenience, which are about 20% together with world travel retail of their sales, they were affected by the lockdowns and the consumer not being out and about. Europe is going back to normal, better than what we're seeing in North America, so we are seeing gradually those 2 channels coming back. We're even expecting world travel retail to start showing a little bit of sales in Q3. So that's really the effect we're talking about and why we feel that Europe will show positive numbers, including world travel retail going forward.

是的。我想說的是，在歐洲，如果你排除——因為出於歷史原因，我們一直將世界旅遊零售額計入歐洲的數據中。所以你一直看到的數字包含了世界旅遊零售業。本季全球旅遊零售幾乎為零，因為免稅店都關門了。如果把這個因素排除在外，歐洲的經濟成長率雖然已經是低個位數，但仍是在成長。之所以增幅沒有超過個位數，是因為他們還有許多其他管道，特別是餐飲服務和衝動消費管道，以及便利商店管道，這些管道加起來約佔其銷售額的 20%，都受到了封鎖和消費者不出門的影響。歐洲正在恢復正常，情況比北美好，所以我們看到這兩個頻道正在逐步恢復。我們甚至預計全球旅遊零售業將在第三季開始出現一些銷售成長。所以，這才是我們真正要討論的影響，也是我們認為歐洲（包括全球旅遊零售業）未來將呈現正面數據的原因。

And then just on products line -- go ahead. Sorry, Luca.

然後就產品線而言—請繼續。對不起，盧卡。

And if I may maybe add one thing. I think the other thing that is more predominant now is our share gains and share gains are expanding in Europe in the latest region. So we see a benefit coming out of share and chocolate consumption as we look at Q3 is going to be quite good. So as Dirk said, there is a little bit of trade stock repiping. There is a little bit of an improvement in all these channels that created a headwind in Q3. But importantly, the underlying consumption in the rest of the business, due mostly to share. And I would say also solid category is improving in Q3 from where we sit today.

如果可以的話，我或許可以補充一點。我認為現在更主要的一點是，我們的市場份額正在成長，而且在歐洲最新地區，市場份額還在不斷擴大。因此，我們看到市場份額和巧克力消費量將帶來收益，預計第三季業績將相當不錯。正如德克所說，這裡有一些交易股票的重新調整。第三季造成不利影響的所有這些管道都略有改善。但重要的是，其餘業務的潛在消費主要歸因於股份。而且我認為，第三季實木板塊的狀況也比目前有所改善。

And I think you just touched on it a little bit. I'm just wondering about the profit or the leverage line to this organic revenue. You said COVID costs and mix headwinds leading to that negative 11 are -- how much are those headwinds going away into the second half for that segment? Or do you expect that this top line growth will lead to a bottom line growth as well?

我覺得你剛才已經稍微提到了這一點。我只是想知道這部分自然成長的收入能帶來多少利潤或槓桿效應。您提到新冠疫情帶來的成本增加和各種不利因素導致了負11%的成長率——那麼，這些不利因素在下半年會在該領域減少多少呢？還是您認為營收成長也會帶來利潤成長？

In relative terms, the supply chain in Europe has been the most impacted by COVID extra costs. You will still see an impact in Q3. And so profit will be better in Q3. Again, it won't be all the way to bright. You will see a much better profit number again, from where we sit today and what we see into Q4 at this point in Q4. So there is a material cost. We have multiple plants that serve multiple countries in Europe. So logistically, it is more difficult for people to get into the plant as they come, in some cases, across the borders. And it is more difficult as there was in some places, a little bit of higher absenteeism that we still see to a certain extent. And importantly, some of the cost that we saw to protect all our people have been, for one reason or the other, a little bit higher than Europe, and so you will still see an impact in Q3.

從相對角度來看，歐洲的供應鏈受新冠疫情額外成本的影響最大。第三季仍會受到影響。因此，第三季的利潤將會更好。同樣，它不會太亮。根據我們目前的情況以及我們對第四季度的預測，您將會看到一個更好的利潤數字。所以會產生材料成本。我們擁有多家工廠，為歐洲多個國家提供服務。因此，從物流角度來看，人們進入工廠變得更加困難，因為他們有時需要越過邊境。而且情況更加困難，因為在某些地方，缺勤率仍然較高，這種情況在某種程度上仍然存在。更重要的是，由於種種原因，我們為保護所有員工所付出的一些代價比歐洲略高，因此在第三季仍將受到影響。

And there are no further questions in queue at this time. I would like to turn the call back to our speakers for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題在排隊等候。現在我把發言權交還給各位發言人，請他們作總結發言。

Well, thank you for connecting. And I think I can wrap it up by saying, from our perspective, it was a solid Q2, particularly seeing the circumstances that we faced around the world. We exited the quarter with very good momentum, and we see a confirmation of that momentum in July. We have the fuel to invest in our growth within our P&L for the second half. And so we feel very confident that we will exit 2020 with some strength and are heading for a great '21 also.

謝謝您的聯絡。最後我想總結一下，從我們的角度來看，第二季業績穩健，尤其考慮到我們在世界各地面臨的各種情況。我們以非常好的勢頭結束了本季度，並且在7月份也看到了這種勢頭的證實。我們有足夠的資金在下半年的損益表中投資於業務成長。因此，我們非常有信心能夠以強勁的勢頭結束 2020 年，並迎來輝煌的 2021 年。

So thank you again, and looking forward to talk to you in the coming quarters.

再次感謝，期待在接下來的幾季與您繼續交流。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。