億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Mondelez' management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Vice President, Investor Relations from Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

各位來賓，歡迎參加億滋國際2020年第一季財報電話會議。本次電話會議預計持續約1小時，包括億滋管理層的致詞和問答環節。 （操作說明）現在我將把電話交給億滋投資者關係副總裁謝普·鄧拉普先生。請您發言。

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides, which are available on our website, mondelezinternational.com/investors.

下午好，感謝各位蒞臨。今天與我一同出席的有我們的董事長兼執行長德克·范德普特先生，以及財務長盧卡·扎拉梅拉先生。今天早些時候，我們已發布新聞稿和演示文稿，您可以在我們的網站mondelezinternational.com/investors上查看。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on our forward-looking statements. As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results. In addition, we provide our year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, unless otherwise noted. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

在本次電話會議中，我們將就公司績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們目前的判斷。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。有關前瞻性陳述的更多詳情，請參閱我們提交的10-K、10-Q和8-K文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。在討論今天的業績時，除非另有說明，我們將引用非GAAP財務指標，這些指標已對GAAP業績中包含的某些項目進行了調整。此外，除非另有說明，我們將以固定匯率為基礎提供年增速。您可以在我們的獲利報告和簡報結尾找到對應的GAAP指標以及GAAP與非GAAP指標的調節表。

Before I speak to the agenda, I would like to remind everyone that we have an upcoming investor call on May 8 to coincide with our annual Snacking Made Right report. Both Dirk and our Chief Impact Officer, Chris McGrath, will discuss sustainability and well-being. They will talk more about our approach, targets and progress on this call as well as answer your questions on those topics.

在正式開始議程之前，我想提醒大家，我們將於5月8日召開投資者電話會議，屆時將發布年度「健康零食」報告。 Dirk和我們的首席影響力長Chris McGrath將共同探討永續發展和福祉議題。他們將在本次電話會議上詳細介紹我們的方法、目標和進展，並回答大家關於這些主題的問題。

In today's call, Dirk will provide a business update, then Luca will take you through the financials and our outlook. We will close with Q&A.

在今天的電話會議中，Dirk 將首先報告業務最新進展，然後 Luca 將詳細介紹財務狀況和公司前景。最後我們將進行問答環節。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dirk.

接下來，我將把電話交給德克。

Thanks, Shep, and hello, everybody. Let me begin by saying thank you to our colleagues for all that they are doing during this unprecedented human crisis. In our factories, our facilities, our distribution network and our sales force, our teams are working night and day to keep the food supply chain going. Our greatest asset is our people. They're determined and dedicated, they're courageous, and they do love our consumers. Because of them, we have delivered outstanding results in exceptional circumstances. I'd also like to take the opportunity to wish everybody else, all the best at this difficult time, our investors, our business partners and clients and, of course, our consumers. The challenges we face are unlike anything we've seen before, but we firmly believe we'll emerge stronger from this.

謝謝謝普，大家好。首先，我要感謝所有同事在這場前所未有的人類危機中所做的一切。在我們的工廠、設施、分銷網絡和銷售團隊中，我們的團隊日夜奮戰，確保食品供應鏈的正常運作。我們最大的財富就是我們的員工。他們意志堅定、盡責、勇敢無畏，並且真心熱愛我們的消費者。正因為有了他們，我們才能在如此特殊的情況下取得卓越的成績。我也想藉此機會，向所有人致以最誠摯的問候，祝福我們的投資者、商業夥伴、客戶以及我們的消費者們，在這個艱難的時刻一切順利。我們面臨的挑戰前所未有，但我們堅信，我們將變得更強大。

In turning to Slide 5, we have clear priorities for managing the volatile environment that is caused by this pandemic. First, we are supporting our colleagues. Their well-being is our highest concern. We've put in place strict health protocols, including temperature screening, social distancing, mask wearing, and the mandatory work from home policy for everyone who can. And we've provided frontline employees with enhanced benefit. We extended sick leave for anyone who contracts the virus. And in markets like the U.S., we announced increased hourly pay and bonuses for frontline workers.

翻到第五張投影片，我們明確了應對疫情帶來的動盪環境的優先事項。首先，我們全力支持同事。他們的福祉是我們最關心的問題。我們已實施嚴格的健康防控措施，包括體溫檢測、保持社交距離、戴口罩，以及強制所有能夠居家辦公的員工居家辦公。此外，我們也為第一線員工提供了更優的福利。我們延長了所有感染病毒員工的病假。在美國等市場，我們也宣布提高第一線員工的時薪和獎金。

We're also supporting our communities. In March, we announced a program to donate $15 million in cash and products to COVID relief. And in fact, we've already exceeded our original plan by $5 million. The recipients included the Red Cross organizations in the United States, Italy, Switzerland and the Philippines; the National Health Service Trust in the U.K.; and food banks across Latin America, to name a few. In addition, our teams have responded to local needs with creative solutions. For instance, in the U.K. and Slovakia, we've redeployed our 3D printers to create parts for face masks used by frontline care workers. And in several markets, we started making hand sanitizers. I'm very proud of our response and believe that we are doing the right thing.

我們也在積極支持社區。今年三月，我們宣布了一項捐贈1500萬美元現金和物資用於新冠疫情救助的計劃。事實上，我們實際捐贈的金額已經超出了原計劃500萬美元。受助機構包括美國、義大利、瑞士和菲律賓的紅十字會；英國國家醫療服務體系信託基金；以及拉丁美洲各地的食物銀行等等。此外，我們的團隊也積極回應當​​地需求，提出了許多創新解決方案。例如，在英國和斯洛伐克，我們重新啟用了3D列印機，為第一線醫護人員生產口罩零件。在一些市場，我們也開始生產洗手液。我為我們所做的努力感到非常自豪，並堅信我們正在做正確的事情。

Our next priority, of course, is business continuity. Our supply chain has been resilient, and we've delivered consistent service to our customers. Case fill rates, in fact, are at better-than-average levels. We've seen an increase in demand in developed markets, and we've met it by focusing on the most important SKUs. Our strong relationship with our suppliers have helped us maintain critical raw materials and packaging supplies. And we've worked with local governments to keep our factories open during lockdowns. We've also maintained our cost discipline and managed cash appropriately. We've made adjustment to spending like more tailored promotions, and in A&C to just focus on working media. We're reducing noncritical capital expenditure, and are maintaining strict control over working capital and inventory. And we are also closely monitoring foreign exchange markets and adjusting where necessary.

當然，我們接下來的首要任務是業務連續性。我們的供應鏈一直保持韌性，並為客戶提供了穩定的服務。事實上，我們的訂單完成率高於平均水平。已開發市場的需求有所成長，我們透過專注於最重要的SKU來滿足這項需求。我們與供應商的緊密合作關係幫助我們維持了關鍵原料和包裝供應。此外，我們也與地方政府合作，確保工廠在疫情封鎖期間繼續運作。同時，我們嚴格控製成本，並妥善管理現金流。我們調整了支出，例如進行更具針對性的促銷活動，並在廣告和廣告部門專注於有效媒體管道。我們正在削減非關鍵資本支出，並嚴格控制營運資金和庫存。同時，我們也密切關注外匯市場，並在必要時進行調整。

Under these circumstances, we are preserving capital and liquidity. We've taken opportunities to increase liquidity through extensions to our credit facilities, and we've also stopped our share buybacks in March. We refinanced short-term debt also at attractive levels. Overall, our priority is clearly to emerge stronger from this. We are confident that we can do that because before the epidemic took hold, our strategy was working well. We are also better positioned than ever to handle a situation like this, given the consumer focus and the locally oriented organizational structure we've put in place recently. We are now accelerating a number of strategic initiatives, and continuing to invest in our brands and capabilities to remain the preferred choice of our customers and our consumers.

在當前情況下，我們正在努力保持資本和流動性。我們抓住機會，透過延長信貸額度來增加流動性，並於3月份停止了股票回購。此外，我們也以優惠的利率對短期債務進行了再融資。總而言之，我們的首要任務顯然是力爭從這場危機中強勢復甦。我們有信心實現這一目標，因為在疫情爆發之前，我們的策略運作良好。鑑於我們近期建立的以消費者為中心的組織架構和在地化管理模式，我們比以往任何時候都更有能力應對此類情況。目前，我們正在加速推動多項策略舉措，並持續投資於我們的品牌和能力建設，以維持客戶和消費者的首選地位。

In turning to Slide 6, we executed well in the first quarter, even as the virus was spreading. Organic net revenue growth was 6.4% driven by developed markets performing strongly in March. Overall, the first 2 months of the quarter were in line with last year's results showing strong top and bottom line growth. The exception, of course, was China that showed a significant slowdown in February. But then in March, China started to come back quickly, thanks to our local-first approach, which puts the decision rights and the accountability where they are most -- where they are the most needed. Also, North America and Europe became strong drivers. Consumers not only stocked up but also consumed more of their trusted brands and including some new consumers entering into our brands. Execution was strong for our Easter business, and our teams were very agile in meeting that increased demand. And our supply chain stayed strong and was resilient.

翻到幻燈片6，儘管疫情仍在蔓延，我們在第一季依然表現出色。有機淨收入成長6.4%，主要得益於已開發市場3月份的強勁表現。整體而言，本季前兩個月的業績與去年同期持平，營收和利潤均強勁成長。當然，中國市場是個例外，2月中國市場成長率顯著放緩。但到了3月份，由於我們「本地優先」的策略，中國市場開始迅速復甦。此策略將決策權和責任下放至最需要的地方。此外，北美和歐洲市場也成為強勁的成長動力。消費者不僅囤貨，也增加了對信賴品牌的消費，同時也吸引了一些新消費者嘗試我們的品牌。我們的復活節業務執行力強勁，團隊靈活應對，滿足了不斷增長的需求。同時，我們的供應鏈保持穩健且富有韌性。

At the same time, emerging markets started to experience disruptions. Sometimes we had quite abrupt lockdowns that made sales and distribution more difficult. Because of the lockdowns, we also saw a decreased offtake in the traditional trade. And these lockdowns sometimes made it even difficult to produce because our people could not reach the factories. Despite these difficulties and the headwinds, we will continue to see that the long-term prospects of emerging markets remain attractive. Our emerging market footprint is a differentiator and is a key part of our long-term growth strategy.

同時，新興市場開始出現各種幹擾。有時，突如其來的封鎖措施使銷售和分銷變得更加困難。由於封鎖，傳統通路的銷量也出現下滑。這些封鎖措施有時甚至會影響生產，因為我們的員工無法前往工廠。儘管面臨這些困難和挑戰，我們仍然認為新興市場的長期前景仍然充滿吸引力。我們在新興市場的業務佈局是一項差異化優勢，也是我們長期成長策略的關鍵組成部分。

A few other channels also performed less well due to COVID. Our world travel retail business dropped significantly, and also away-from-home was impacted. All this led to reduction in traditional trade and the away-from-home hit gum and candy, which is sold more often in away-from-home channels.

受新冠疫情影響，其他一些管道的表現也不佳。我們的全球旅遊零售業務大幅下滑，外出用餐通路也受到衝擊。所有這些因素導致傳統貿易額下降，而外出用餐通路的衝擊則主要集中在口香糖和糖果等在戶外銷售的商品上。

We also incurred higher costs to keep clients supplied. The mix changed due to higher demand for larger family packs, for instance. Our supply chain cost also rose because we had to hire temporary workers. We had to increase compensation and saw costs for distribution increase, and we did see some currency impacts in emerging markets. So far in April, what we see is that where we have the freedom to operate, we are doing quite well. In developed markets, we continue to see elevated demand, though not at the same level as in March. And in emerging markets, we do have clear headwinds driven by lockdowns and potential economic downturns. We also expect those cost headwinds to continue because we will continue to invest in additional health and safety measures to protect our people. We will continue to see higher personnel and distribution costs. The mix will continue to be a factor, and we will see the ongoing impact of ForEx. All this makes it difficult to forecast what will happen. But overall, we do expect to come out of this stronger with increased market share.

為了保障客戶供應，我們也承擔了更高的成本。例如，由於對大包裝家庭裝的需求增加，產品組合發生了變化。由於需要雇用臨時工，我們的供應鏈成本也隨之上升。我們不得不提高員工薪酬，分銷成本也隨之增加，而且在新興市場也受到了匯率波動的影響。截至目前，在4月份，我們看到，在可以自由經營的地區，我們的業績相當不錯。在已開發市場，我們看到需求依然旺盛，儘管不如3月那麼高。而在新興市場，我們確實面臨封鎖和潛在經濟衰退帶來的明顯不利因素。我們預計這些成本壓力還會持續，因為我們將繼續投資額外的健康和安全措施，以保護我們的員工。我們將面臨更高的人員和分銷成本。產品組合的變化仍將是影響因素，外匯波動的影響也將持續存在。所有這些因素都使得預測未來走向變得困難。但總的來說，我們預計最終會變得更強大，市場佔有率也會有所成長。

Now to Slide 7. Despite this challenging environment, I think we can be proud of what we have achieved. Since September 2018, we have increased investment in our brands, both in terms of quantity but also quality and ROI. As a consequence, we saw record share levels in Q1. We held or gained share in 80% of our markets. Biscuits, which is around 45% of revenue, has seen the biggest spike in demand due to COVID-19, and that also is a category where we saw share increase the most. Overall, just to give a few examples. In the U.S., our Biscuit brands, Oreo, belVita, Ritz, Triscuit and Wheat Thins out-posted mid-teens growth or more in the first quarter, which drove share gains of 2.5 points in the last reading.

現在來看第七張幻燈片。儘管面臨如此充滿挑戰的環境，我認為我們應該為所取得的成就感到自豪。自2018年9月以來，我們加大了對旗下品牌的投資，不僅增加了投入，也提升了品質和投資報酬率。因此，我們在第一季實現了創紀錄的市場份額。我們在80%的市場中維持或提高了市場佔有率。餅乾類產品約佔總營收的45%，受新冠疫情影響，其需求激增，市佔率也成長最為顯著。舉例來說，在美國，我們的餅乾品牌奧利奧、belVita、Ritz、Triscuit和Wheat Thins在第一季實現了兩位數以上的成長，推動市佔率在最新數據中提升了2.5個百分點。

In China, we saw share gains of 7 points in the latest reading. And in the U.K., we saw gains of 1.5 points over the Easter period. While dynamics were different by market, global snacking categories were strong. We also saw strong momentum in our categories, especially in biscuits and chocolate, but less so in gum and candy.

在中國，最新數據顯示我們的市佔率成長了7個百分點。在英國，復活節期間我們的市佔率增加了1.5個百分點。儘管不同市場的表現有所差異，但全球零食市場整體表現強勁。我們的產品類別也呈現強勁的成長勢頭，尤其是餅乾和巧克力，但口香糖和糖果的成長勢頭稍弱。

On Slide 8, as stated, we expect headwinds in the second quarter, but we remain very positive about our longer-term prospects. We are convinced we will emerge stronger because we are the market leaders in resilient categories and have an unrivaled portfolio of global and local brands.

如幻燈片8所述，我們預計第二季將面臨一些不利因素，但我們對長期前景仍然非常樂觀。我們堅信，憑藉我們在韌性強的品類中的市場領導地位以及無與倫比的全球和本土品牌組合，我們將變得更加強大。

We're seeing consumers snacking more. They are looking for that moment of comfort offered by biscuits and chocolate in today's stressful circumstances. In particular, our trusted brands and our taste of the nation brands bring a sense of normalcy, and we can give the consumer that normalcy with our brands around the world. So since we have a unique setup, thanks to our brands, also our organization and scale, we are convinced our categories will continue to present significant opportunities. We're also focused on operational excellence. We will keep manufacturing, shipping and delivering despite the many headwinds around the world. Our powerful direct store distribution in the U.S. to our deep-rooted local distribution in emerging markets will make sure that our products will continue to be available for consumers. We're also managing our costs in order to be able to invest to win. So we are fully planning to continue to increase support for our brands and capitalize on the recent share gains as we are focused on long-term sustainable growth.

我們發現消費者零食消費量增加。在如今充滿壓力的環境下，他們渴望從餅乾和巧克力中獲得片刻慰藉。尤其是我們值得信賴的品牌和具有全國代表性的品牌，能夠帶來一種熟悉感，而我們遍布全球的品牌能夠為消費者提供這種熟悉感。憑藉我們獨特的品牌優勢、組織架構和規模，我們堅信我們的產品類別將繼續帶來巨大的發展機會。同時，我們也專注於卓越營運。儘管面臨全球諸多挑戰，我們仍將繼續生產、運輸和配送。從我們在美國強大的直營門市分銷網絡，到我們在新興市場根深蒂固的本地分銷體系，我們將確保消費者能夠持續獲得我們的產品。此外，我們也在有效控製成本，以便能夠進行投資並贏得市場。因此，我們正全力以赴地計劃繼續加大對旗下品牌的支持力度，並充分利用近期市場份額的成長，以實現長期可持續增長。

At the same time, we will double down on driving efficiency by accelerating simplification initiatives, increasing our agility and very strong cost controls. And lastly, we have liquidity and balance sheet strength because we further strengthened our balance sheet and the liquidity so that we can make sure that we can handle the fluid situation no matter what.

同時，我們將加倍努力提高效率，加快簡化流程，增強靈活性，並嚴格控製成本。最後，我們擁有充足的流動性和穩健的資產負債表，因為我們進一步加強了資產負債表和流動性，確保無論情況如何變化，我們都能應對自如。

So let me turn to our strategy on Slide 9. We will continue to focus on our 3 strategic priorities and our long-term financial algorithm. Although we will take opportunities to make short-term tactical shifts as required. We are convinced our strategy is the right one, and it's proving to be a plus in the current situation. Our local-first approach with strong local business unit empowerment and an efficient supply chain is giving us speed and reliability. Our organization has gone through a lot of change, and we have developed more agility, so we were able to adapt quickly to the new circumstances. Our local brands are showing a resurgence driven by consumers going back to a feeling of comfort and trust in familiar products. And as you know, a big chunk of our portfolio are local brands.

接下來，我想談談投影片9中的策略。我們將繼續專注於三大策略重點和長期財務規劃。當然，我們也會根據需要，把握機會進行短期戰術調整。我們堅信目前的策略是正確的，並且在當前情況下也證明了其優勢。我們以在地化為先的策略，賦予本地業務部門強大的自主權，並建立高效的供應鏈，這為我們帶來了速度和可靠性。我們的組織經歷了許多變革，也變得更加靈活，因此能夠迅速適應新的環境。在消費者重新尋求熟悉產品帶來的舒適感和信任感的推動下，我們的本地品牌正在復甦。如您所知，我們產品組合中很大一部分都是本地品牌。

We're also taking the opportunity to accelerate certain initiatives. In growth, we are adjusting our marketing and innovation projects by increasing our spend on working media and at the same time, simplifying our portfolio. In addition, we see opportunities in both revenue management and in e-commerce, where we can capitalize on increased demand from at-home shopping.

我們正藉此機會加速推動某些措施。在成長方面，我們正在調整行銷和創新項目，增加在有效媒體上的投入，同時簡化產品組合。此外，我們看到了營收管理和電子商務領域的機遇，可以充分利用居家購物需求的成長。

On execution, we'll increase our supply chain efficiency while continuing to reduce our cost basis. We are also streamlining the amount of projects and activities here. And in culture, we'll build on the agility we've seen in the organization to further enhance our ways of working.

在執行層面，我們將提高供應鏈效率，同時持續降低成本。我們也在精簡項目和活動的數量。在文化層面，我們將鞏固組織已展現的敏捷性，進一步優化工作方式。

Turning to Slide 10. We remain committed to our people and communities for the long term, and believe our sustainability initiatives are as important as ever. Companies need to be doing the right thing. And due to this crisis, the consumer will become even more conscious about the fragility of our planet. So our focus is on protecting our ecosystem. We are caring for our people; we've made donations to support our communities; we've increased credit support to our suppliers and our distributors to help them weather the crisis; and we're determined to continue to deliver on our environmental and social goals. And on May 8, as Shep mentioned, we will have a special investor session to highlight our ESG targets and plans. We invite you all to join the call.

請翻到第10頁投影片。我們始終致力於長期發展，關懷員工和社區，並堅信永續發展措施的重要性一如既往。企業必須履行應盡的責任。此次危機將使消費者更加意識到地球的脆弱性。因此，我們專注於保護生態系統。我們關懷員工；我們已向社區捐款；我們增加了對供應商和分銷商的信貸支持，幫助他們渡過難關；我們決心繼續實現我們的環境和社會目標。正如Shep所提到的，我們將於5月8日召開一次投資者特別會議，重點介紹我們的ESG目標和計劃。誠摯邀請各位參加。

And with that, I will hand it over to Luca.

然後，我就把它交給盧卡了。

Thank you, Dirk, and good afternoon. Before getting into our financial results, I would like to echo Dirk's comment when it comes to thanking our people and teams across this company. I'm really proud of how everyone in the organization has come together in the face of this situation and brought their resolve, energy and creativity to help us navigate challenges and finding solutions.

謝謝Dirk，下午好。在介紹我們的財務表現之前，我想再次感謝Dirk，感謝公司全體員工和團隊。面對目前的困境，公司上下團結一心，展現出堅定的決心、飽滿的熱情和無限的創造力，幫助我們克服挑戰、找到解決方案，我為此感到無比自豪。

With respect to results, we had strong performance in the first quarter on both the top and bottom line. Our revenue grew by 6.4%, and was supported by the expansion in each 1 of our 4 regions, with particular strength in North America and Europe. We also delivered record share growth performance throughout the quarter, due to combination of supply chain and sales execution as well as recognized quality of our global and local brands. These factors enabled us to grow share by 50 basis points on a year-to-date basis, and 1 point in the latest reading, or held or gained share in 80% of our revenue base. Our revenue growth, driven by favorable volume and pricing dynamics, enabled us to post solid profit dollar and EPS growth despite some significant COVID-related costs. In addition to turning in a good P&L performance, we also took an opportunity out of an abundance of caution to further strengthen our balance sheet position and liquidity profile.

就業績而言，我們第一季在營收和利潤方面均表現強勁。營收成長6.4%，這得益於我們四大區域業務的全面擴張，其中北美和歐洲市場表現尤為突出。此外，由於供應鏈和銷售執行的最佳化，以及全球和本地品牌的卓越品質，我們本季的市佔率也創下歷史新高。這些因素使我們年初至今的市佔率成長了50個基點，最新數據顯示成長了1個百分點，這意味著我們在80%的營收基礎上維持或提升了市場佔有率。在銷售和價格因素的推動下，營收成長使我們在承擔了部分與新冠疫情相關的重大成本的情況下，依然實現了穩健的利潤和每股收益成長。除了取得良好的損益表現外，出於謹慎考慮，我們還抓住機會進一步增強了資產負債表的穩健性和流動性。

On Slide 13, you can see we performed well across all our key metrics. Importantly, we generated significant profit dollar growth with volume leverage that offset extra costs related to COVID. This allowed us to invest more A&C in the quarter.

從第13張投影片可以看出，我們在所有關鍵指標上都表現出色。更重要的是，我們利用銷售槓桿實現了顯著的利潤成長，抵消了與新冠疫情相關的額外成本。這使我們能夠在本季度投入更多資金用於研發和維護。

Moving to Slide 14. We saw our top line result driven by an acceleration in our developed markets, which grew more than 7%. These markets were performing well through February before step up in March due to increased in home consumption. This trend has extended into April, though at a less elevated rate and predominantly in North America, as Europe's positive impact in retail is offset by headwinds in our world travel retail business.

翻到第14頁。我們的營收成長主要得益於已開發市場的加速成長，增幅超過7%。這些市場在2月表現良好，3月由於家庭消費增加而進一步加速成長。這一趨勢延續到了4月份，但成長速度有所放緩，且主要集中在北美地區。歐洲零售業的正面影響被全球旅遊零售業務的逆風所抵消。

Emerging market growth was 4.5%, or 2.4% when excluding Argentina. Similar to developed markets and leading China aside, this set of countries was performing very well and in line with our expectations for the first 2 months of the quarter before strict lockdowns in late March began to have a material impact on traditional trade. China was a bright spot, as the team did an outstanding job and demonstrated resilience in order to not only bounce back from COVID-related headwinds, but actually post low single-digit growth for the entire quarter. Overall, the potential of emerging markets remains unchanged, and we will continue to invest appropriately to maximize long-term growth opportunities in these markets.

新興市場成長率為4.5%，若剔除阿根廷則為2.4%。與已開發市場類似，除中國以外，這些國家在本季前兩個月的表現非常出色，符合我們的預期。然而，3月下旬嚴格的封鎖措施開始對傳統貿易產生重大影響。中國市場表現突出，團隊表現出色，展現了強大的韌性，不僅成功克服了新冠疫情帶來的不利影響，而且整個季度都實現了低個位數成長。總體而言，新興市場的潛力仍然存在，我們將繼續進行適當的投資，以最大限度地掌握這些市場的長期成長機會。

Biscuit is performing extremely well, given the advantaged position and trusted brands that we have, predominantly in developed markets. Chocolate overall was positive, but got impacted by some emerging market lockdowns, particularly India and our travel retail business. Overall, notwithstanding some COVID-related headwinds, we were very happy with our chocolate performance in Q1.

鑑於我們在已開發市場擁有的優勢地位和值得信賴的品牌，餅乾業務表現極為出色。巧克力業務整體表現良好，但受到一些新興市場封鎖措施的影響，尤其是印度和我們的旅遊零售業務。總的來說，儘管受到一些與新冠疫情相關的不利因素影響，我們對第一季的巧克力業務表現非常滿意。

Now let's review our profitability on Slide 15. We increased gross profit by nearly 6% in Q1. Strong volume in developed markets was partially offset by roughly flat volume mix in emerging markets, primarily as a result of COVID disruptions. Pricing was positive across both developed and emerging market, and in all of our 4 regions. Additional costs associated with overtime, frontline workforce bonuses and customer service and logistics tempered gross profit results. Operating income grew nearly 6%, as higher A&C and front line expenses were partially offset by cost reduction programs and volume mix gains.

現在讓我們回顧一下第15頁幻燈片中的獲利情況。第一季度，我們的毛利成長了近6%。已開發市場銷售強勁成長，但新興市場銷售量基本持平，主要是由於新冠疫情的影響。已開發市場和新興市場以及我們所有四個區域的定價均表現良好。加班費、第一線員工獎金以及客戶服務和物流等額外成本抑制了毛利的成長。營業收入成長了近6%，其中廣告和營運成本以及第一線員工支出增加的部分被成本削減計劃和銷售成長所抵消。

Moving to regional performance on Slide 16. North America grew 13.4% driven by strong share gains and COVID-related consumption. Biscuits growth was broad-based across both global and local brands. Oreo, belVita, Ritz, Triscuit and Wheat Thins all posted mid-teens growth or more. Strong execution in manufacturing, our robust DSD network and alternative channel growth in cloud value and e-commerce were critical factors in achieving this performance. Although the quarter was strong, we did see softer results in gum, given its impulse nature and the lag in convenience relative to other channels as well as some share losses in gum.

第16頁幻燈片展示了區域業績。北美地區成長13.4%，主要得益於強勁的市場佔有率提升和與新冠疫情相關的消費成長。餅乾業務成長全面，涵蓋全球和本地品牌。奧利奧、belVita、Ritz、Triscuit和Wheat Thins等品牌均實現了兩位數或更高的成長。強大的生產執行力、穩健的直接送貨上門（DSD）網路以及雲端價值和電子商務等替代管道的成長是實現這一業績的關鍵因素。儘管本季整體表現強勁，但由於口香糖屬於衝動型消費，且便利商店通路的滯後性以及部分市佔率的下降，其業績略顯疲軟。

The North American region grew operating income by more than 20% as significant volume leverage more than offset additional labor and distribution costs. Europe executed well in the quarter with revenue growth of 4.3%. Strong sales, supply chain and brand execution resulted in a largely volume-driven growth quarter. The U.K., Germany and Italy all grew mid-single digits, while Russia continued its momentum with high single growth behind strong volumes and share gains.

北美地區營業收入成長超過20%，銷售量的顯著成長足以抵銷額外的人工和分銷成本。歐洲地區本季表現良好，營收成長4.3%。強勁的銷售、供應鏈和品牌執行力推動了本季主要由銷售驅動的成長。英國、德國和義大利均實現了中等個位數的成長，而俄羅斯則延續了強勁的成長勢頭，銷量和市場份額的提升使其實現了較高的個位數成長。

Our Easter season was successful with flat year-over-year growth, which is outstanding given the shorter Easter season and COVID-related challenges. Importantly, we believe the early sell-out data suggests share gains. On the flip side, we did experience some headwinds related to the convenience channels, mostly in world travel retail and gum. Adjusted OI dollar declined slightly due to a more difficult compare related to commodity cost pipeline, which we expected, and we mentioned to you last quarter as well as some higher A&C costs and some COVID-related costs.

我們的復活節銷售季表現良好，年成長與去年同期持平，考慮到復活節銷售季較短以及新冠疫情帶來的挑戰，這一成績實屬難得。更重要的是，我們認為早期的銷售數據顯示市佔率有所提升。另一方面，我們在便利通路方面遇到了一些不利因素，主要體現在全球旅遊零售和口香糖業務方面。由於大宗商品成本上漲導致基數較高（正如我們預期的那樣，上個季度我們也曾提及），以及部分廣告和包裝成本以及一些與新冠疫情相關的成本，調整後的營業收入略有下降。

AMEA grew 2.2% with some different dynamics across the region. A number of markets, such as India and Southeast Asia saw significant disruptions late in the quarter related to strict lockdowns that caused widespread traditional trade closures as well as some difficulties to operate. In fact, both India and Southeast Asia were slightly positive for the quarter. China recovered quite well from the lockdown and grew low single digits in the quarter behind strong biscuit results.

亞太及中東地區（AMEA）成長2.2%，但各地區的情況略有不同。印度和東南亞等多個市場在本季末受到嚴重衝擊，嚴格的封鎖措施導致傳統貿易大規模停滯，營運也面臨許多困難。事實上，印度和東南亞本季均略有成長。中國市場從封鎖中恢復良好，在餅乾業務的強勁推動下，本季實現了低個位數成長。

Australia and New Zealand delivered a good performance with mid-single-digit growth behind strong Easter execution and share gains in chocolate. Overall, and on the positive side, AMEA is posting a very good performance on shares with widespread gains. AMEA operating income dollars declined by approximately 8% due primarily to lower-than-typical volumes and leverage in addition to extra costs related to COVID.

澳洲和紐西蘭市場表現良好，在復活節銷售強勁以及巧克力市場份額提升的推動下，實現了中等個位數的成長。整體而言，AMEA地區的股價表現非常出色，普遍上漲。 AMEA地區的營業收入下降了約8%，主要原因是銷量和槓桿率低於往年，以及與新冠疫情相關的額外成本。

Latin America grew 7% due primarily to inflation-driven growth in Argentina. Revenue was flat when excluding Argentina. Mexico grew slightly behind solid biscuit performance. And although the market declined in gum and candy, we grew share. In Brazil, we were flat. Biscuits and candy were solid, while the powder beverage category continued to decline. We took actions in Q1 around new marketing communication and product formulation, but it is very early stages.

拉丁美洲市場成長7%，主要得益於阿根廷通膨推動的成長。若不計入阿根廷市場，營收則持平。墨西哥市場略有成長，主要得益於餅乾業務的強勁表現。儘管口香糖和糖果市場有所下滑，但我們的市佔率卻有所成長。巴西市場整體持平。餅乾和糖果業務表現穩健，而粉狀飲料品類則持續下滑。我們在第一季針對新的行銷傳播策略和產品配方採取了一系列措施，但目前仍處於初期階段。

Our Western Andean countries were hit the hardest in the region by COVID. An aggressive lockdown had a significant impact on the traditional trade, which is most of the business in this country cluster. Adjusted OI dollars in Latin America declined by 3.5%, primarily due to headwinds associated with negative mix as well as the impact of currency.

西安地斯山脈國家是該地區受新冠疫情衝擊最嚴重的國家。嚴格的封鎖措施對傳統貿易造成了重大影響，而傳統貿易正是該地區的主要經濟支柱。拉丁美洲經調整後的未平倉合約美元數下降了3.5%，主要原因是產品組合不利以及匯率波動帶來的不利影響。

Turning to EPS on Slide 20. Q1 EPS grew nearly 11%. This increase primarily reflected operating gains driven by revenue growth. Clearly, we saw the impact of COVID in the top line as well as in additional expenses to keep the operations running at the right levels.

請參閱第20頁投影片，以了解每股盈餘（EPS）。第一季每股收益成長近11%。這一增長主要反映了營收成長帶來的營運收益。顯然，新冠疫情對營收以及維持正常運作所需的額外支出都產生了影響。

Moving forward, we expect costs related to labor, customer service and logistics to increase, and we expect a negative mix impact. Our teams are working to find offset. However, we expect the net effect on earnings to be significant in terms of additional costs as we look at Q2 and into the second half.

展望未來，我們預期與勞動力、客戶服務和物流相關的成本將會增加，並且預期會對產品組合產生負面影響。我們的團隊正在努力尋找應對措施。然而，我們預計，從第二季及下半年來看，額外成本對獲利的淨影響將十分顯著。

I'll now move on to our free cash flow results on Slide 21. We delivered free cash flow of $70 million, which was in line with our plans and included some discrete indirect tax payments. We are maintaining strong rigor around both working capital and overall cash management. We have clear priorities for the remainder of the year, which include protecting critical CapEx while reducing noncritical items, optimizing discretionary cash spending, and aligning restructuring initiatives too unique in this operating environment.

接下來，我將介紹第21頁投影片中的自由現金流結果。我們實現了7000萬美元的自由現金流，符合預期，其中包含了一些一次性間接稅款支出。我們始終嚴格把控營運資本和整體現金管理。今年剩餘時間裡，我們有明確的優先事項，包括保障關鍵資本支出，同時削減非關鍵項目；優化可自由支配的現金支出；以及調整在當前經營環境下較為特殊的重組計劃。

Moving to Page 22. We returned $1.1 billion to our shareholders in the first quarter. As a cautionary measure, we made the decision to suspend our share buyback program. There is no change to our long- or short-term dividend policy. Although we maintain -- although we may adjust tactics to reduce noncritical uses of cash and maximize liquidity, our focus and prioritization of investing in our business is unchanged.

請翻至第22頁。第一季度，我們向股東返還了11億美元。作為謹慎措施，我們決定暫停股票回購計畫。我們的長期和短期股利政策保持不變。儘管我們可能會調整策略以減少非必要現金支出並最大限度地提高流動性，但我們對業務投資的重點和優先順序保持不變。

While on capital allocation, I wanted to make mention of our recent acquisition of Give & Go for approximately $1.2 billion, which closed on April 1. This growth platform is a leader in the large and fast-growing in-store bakery channel with fully finished fresh products. This category has been growing mid-single digits over the past several years, and thus been gaining square footage in stores, and it is a demand driver. We are excited about the opportunity to further grow this platform, and cross-sell with some of our traditional brands. Although the acquisition did not close until early April, the business performed well in Q1.

在談到資本配置時，我想提一下我們最近以約12億美元收購Give & Go的交易，該交易已於4月1日完成。 Give & Go是大型且快速成長的店內烘焙通路的領導者，提供全成品新鮮烘焙產品。過去幾年，該品類一直保持著中等個位數的成長，因此在門市的銷售面積不斷擴大，並成為市場需求的驅動力。我們很高興有機會進一步發展該平台，並與我們的一些傳統品牌進行交叉銷售。儘管收購直到4月初才完成，但該業務在第一季的表現良好。

Let me take a moment to address an area that I know is on the mind of investors across all of their portfolio companies, which is balance sheet's strength and liquidity. We feel very good about the strength and flexibility of our balance sheet. We have ample liquidity with approximately $9.5 billion of committed and mostly undrawn credit facilities. In addition, we have opened a low-cost access to that capital market. This includes commercial paper or the recent $1 billion in debt that we issued earlier this month at favorable rates. Let me underscore that we are committed to maintaining our investment-grade status and access to Tier 2 commercial paper.

我想花一點時間談談投資人普遍關心的一個問題，那就是資產負債表的穩健性和流動性。我們對自身的資產負債表穩健性和彈性非常有信心。我們擁有充足的流動性，約95億美元的已承諾且大部分尚未提取的信貸額度。此外，我們也開闢了低成本的資本市場融資管道，包括商業票據以及本月初以優惠利率發行的10億美元債券。我要強調的是，我們致力於維持投資等級信用評等和二級商業票據的發行管道。

As you saw from our release earlier, we are no longer providing a financial outlook for the full year 2020. The outlook for the balance of the year depends heavily on the expected impact of COVID-19 and the duration of the staying-at-home orders across regions, both of which remain uncertain, limiting our ability to forecast with precision. A few additional points I would like to make related to our outlook in the year.

正如您之前在我們發布的公告中所看到的，我們不再提供2020年全年的財務展望。今年剩餘時間的展望很大程度上取決於新冠疫情的預期影響以及各地居家隔離令的持續時間，而這兩方面目前仍存在不確定性，限制了我們進行精確預測的能力。關於今年的展望，我還有幾點需要補充說明。

Our near focus is on all of our people and those that play a key role across our manufacturing, distribution and sales function. We are seeing incremental costs and cannot predict what new headwinds might emerge as a result of COVID crisis. We will make decisions to protect our people and come out of this situation stronger. Given the circumstances, quarterly earnings will obviously be less of a priority, but our long-term strategy and focus around investing in our business and driving balanced profitable growth has not changed. Although we're not providing full year guidance at this time, I wanted to share some thoughts regarding tailwinds and headwinds for the second quarter.

我們目前的首要任務是專注於所有員工，特別是那些在製造、分銷和銷售等各個環節中發揮關鍵作用的員工。我們正面臨成本增加的問題，也無法預測新冠疫情危機可能帶來的新挑戰。我們將做出各項決策，以保護員工，並爭取從困境變得更強大。鑑於當前形勢，季度獲利顯然不再是我們的首要任務，但我們長期策略以及圍繞業務投資和推動平衡獲利成長的重點並未改變。雖然我們目前暫不提供全年業績指引，但我希望分享一些關於第二季可能面臨的利多和挑戰的看法。

With respect to tailwind, we expect continued positive impact from increase in home consumption and expandable consumption in developed markets, especially in biscuits. We are also taking strong actions to mitigate costs across the business, which means taking a fresh look at the entire business and looking for additional opportunities that do not impact our revenue-generating investment. We also expect some tailwinds from optimizing A&C investment, which means the timing is likely to shift in certain cases from Q2 to the second half.

就利好因素而言，我們預期已開發市場（尤其是餅乾市場）的家庭消費成長和可擴展消費將持續帶來正面影響。同時，我們也採取強有力的措施來降低業務成本，這意味著我們將重新審視整個業務，並尋找不會影響創收投資的其他機會。此外，我們預期優化廣告和廣告投資也將帶來一些利多因素，這意味著在某些情況下，投資時間可能會從第二季推遲到下半年。

In terms of expected headwinds, we expect the negative impact that we saw in late March and through April to continue in emerging markets as it relates to traditional trade closures. World travel retail, which is a few hundred million dollar business, is expected to see significant declines. Our gum category, which has consumed more than our other categories out-of-home and is the most impulse in nature, is expected to see material declines. And we expect higher costs to drive our current operation and support the continuity of business during the crisis.

就預期不利因素而言，我們預計3月下旬至4月新興市場因傳統貿易關閉而遭受的負面影響將持續存在。全球旅遊零售業務規模達數億美元，預計將大幅下滑。我們的口香糖類別在戶外消費量方面高於其他類別，且屬於衝動型消費，預計也將顯著下滑。此外，我們預計成本上升將推動當前運營，並保障危機期間業務的持續性。

Currency impact is greater now than earlier this year. As we stand today, it would decrease full year net revenue growth by approximately 4% -- 5% and adjusted EPS by approximately $0.10. We will continue to monitor the situation and keep you updated as appropriate.

目前匯率波動的影響比今年年初更大。就目前情況來看，這將使全年淨收入成長減少約4%至5%，調整後每股盈餘減少約0.10美元。我們將繼續密切關注事態發展，並適時向您通報最新情況。

Our long-term growth algorithm is unchanged. As Dirk said earlier, we will continue to run this business for mid- to long-term sustainable growth, which means we are investing to win in the market by delivering share gains to drive profit dollars and to return capital to our shareholders.

我們的長期成長策略保持不變。正如德克先前所說，我們將繼續以中長期可持續成長為目標經營這項業務，這意味著我們將透過投資來贏得市場，提升市場份額，從而增加利潤並向股東返還資本。

I'll now turn it over to Dirk for some closing comments.

現在我把發言權交給德克，讓他做一些總結性發言。

Thank you, Luca. As we look to the next weeks and months, we are clear about our priority. Our first interest is in taking care of our people, keeping them protected and being a good partner to customers and suppliers by taking care of our ecosystem. As stated, while we may see headwinds in the short term in emerging markets, our long-term emerging market opportunities remain significant, so we will stay the course. Our priority is to ensure routes to market remain intact so we can recover immediately the minute that markets emerge from lockdown.

謝謝盧卡。展望未來幾週和幾個月，我們非常清楚我們的首要任務。我們首先關注的是照顧好員工，保障他們的安全，並透過維護我們的生態系統，成為客戶和供應商的良好合作夥伴。正如之前所說，儘管我們短期內可能會在新興市場遇到一些阻力，但我們在新興市場的長期發展機會依然巨大，因此我們將繼續堅持既定方針。我們的首要任務是確保市場通路暢通無阻，以便在市場解除封鎖後能夠立即恢復營運。

We are prepared to ride the wave of increased demand in our developed markets, and we'll focus on ensuring our supply chain remains strong to fulfill the increased demand.

我們已做好準備，迎接已開發市場需求成長的浪潮，並將專注於確保供應鏈保持強勁，以滿足不斷增長的需求。

The current environment is dynamic, and every day brings new challenges, so we will continue to be agile and act with speed to deal with them. And even if we see headwinds in the second quarter, we have everything we need to emerge stronger and faster. And as such, we'll continue to invest in our brands, our customers and our people. With that, I will turn to Shep to open the Q&A.

當前環境瞬息萬變，每天都面臨新的挑戰，因此我們將繼續保持敏捷，迅速應對。即使第二季遭遇一些不利因素，我們也擁有所需的一切資源，能夠更快、更強勁地走出困境。因此，我們將繼續投資於我們的品牌、客戶和員工。接下來，我將請謝普開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lazar。

Dirk, to start off, you talked a number of times about looking to emerge from all of this in a stronger position. I was hoping you could expand a bit on that. It's clear market shares took a big step forward. And it seems like scale, brand strength, supply chain have all been pretty clear advantages at this stage. But I guess, should we anticipate some additional investment as the year progresses, if there are opportunities to do so? And if so, what form might those take, whether it's advertising, go-to-market investments and such. That would be helpful. And then just I have a quick follow-up.

德克，首先，你多次提到希望從這一切中走出來，並處於更有利的地位。我希望你能詳細解釋一下。很明顯，市場佔有率取得了顯著成長。而且，規模、品牌實力和供應鏈似乎在現階段都變成了非常明顯的優勢。但是，我想問的是，隨著時間的推移，如果出現機會，我們是否應該預期會有額外的投資？如果有，這些投資會採取哪些形式，例如廣告、市場推廣投資等等？這些資訊將很有幫助。最後，我還有一個後續問題。

Okay. Thank you, Andrew. I would say, first of all, we are entering this crisis, unlike in the past from a position of strength and we -- our strategy was working. We saw good growth in January and February, and we had a recipe that was working for us. And we are trying to get back to that recipe as soon as we possibly can, and we get this behind us. You pointed out a few things there, categories. If you go back to past crises, particularly biscuits, but also chocolate tend to do quite well. Gum and candy, a little bit less, but also meals, cheese in these circumstances are not that much affected and sometimes see increased consumption as you, for instance, can see right now with biscuits. While we are the global market leader, we still have significant headroom to grow, and you saw the results of this quarter. And I think that will still be a big possibility for us to keep on increasing our market share particularly in circumstances where some of the more local, smaller competition might have a slightly harder time than we do.

好的，謝謝你，安德魯。首先，我想說的是，與以往不同的是，我們這次進入危機時處於優勢地位，我們的策略也行之有效。一月和二月我們實現了良好的成長，我們當時的策略非常奏效。我們正努力盡快恢復到先前的策略，並儘快渡過難關。你剛才提到了一些品類方面的問題。回顧以往的危機，尤其是餅乾，巧克力通常表現良好。口香糖和糖果的銷量稍遜一籌，但餐點和起司在當前情況下受到的影響並不大，有時甚至會出現銷量增長，例如你現在看到的餅乾銷量。雖然我們是全球市場領導者，但我們仍然有很大的成長空間，你也看到了本季的業績。我認為，我們仍然有很大的機會繼續擴大市場份額，尤其是在一些規模較小、更具地域性的競爭對手可能比我們面臨更大挑戰的情況下。

I think we have the right setup with the local teams. This change in the structure that we did, we saw in China, a 3%-plus growth in China in the first quarter is excellent work by our team. And that is through the fact that they made the decisions right away and they were on the ball and could make things happen without having to pass a lot things. And then I think we still have the opportunity to go wider with our categories, both organically and with our brands. And we can go also inorganically. Maybe this period offers an opportunity just as we have recently done with Perfect -- done with Perfect Snacks and Give & Go. There's a number of other things, I think, that we are working on. Execution has been excellent for us. We are reducing investment in the second quarter and trying to increase our investment in the third and the first -- fourth quarter, which would mean over the year that probably we will not increase our investment but at least keep it stable and have a significant increase when things are back to normal in the second half of the year of our investments and see some return to growth as soon as we can or continuation of growth depending on what happens in the second quarter.

我認為我們與本地團隊的合作安排非常合理。我們調整了組織架構，在中國，第一季實現了超過3%的成長，這要歸功於我們團隊的出色工作。這得益於他們迅速做出決策，反應敏捷，能夠高效推進各項工作，無需過多審批。我認為我們仍然有機會拓展產品類別，包括有機成長和品牌擴張。我們也可以進行非有機成長。或許這段時期正是我們抓住機會的好時機，就像我們最近對Perfect Snacks和Give & Go所做的那樣。我認為我們還在推進其他一些項目。總的來說，我們的執行力非常出色。我們將在第二季減少投資，並努力在第三季和第一至第四季增加投資。這意味著，從全年來看，我們可能不會增加投資，但至少會保持穩定，並在下半年投資恢復正常時大幅增加投資，並儘快恢復成長，或根據第二季的情況繼續成長。

So I think all that are reasons for us that we believe that we can emerge from this stronger. And we are accompanying all that, as Luca said, with a strong focus on costs, which allow us to do that extra investment in the second half and absorb some of the headwinds that we will be facing. So I think those are some of the reasons -- the main reasons why we believe that we can come out of this stronger. And that's really our focus.

所以我認為，正是基於這些原因，我們相信我們能夠從這場危機中變得更強大。正如盧卡所說，同時，我們也高度重視成本控制，這使我們能夠在下半年進行額外的投資，並應對我們將面臨的一些不利因素。因此，我認為這些都是我們相信能夠從這場危機中變得更強大的主要原因。而這正是我們工作的重點。

Okay. And then just a quick one, maybe just if you could, a quick walk around, just some of the key emerging markets. They're not all created equal. And how long you maybe see it taking in some of these key markets to get back to a more normalized consumption pattern, obviously, with the best information we have today.

好的。那麼，如果可以的話，請您快速瀏覽幾個主要的新興市場。這些市場的情況各不相同。根據我們目前掌握的最佳信息，您認為這些主要市場需要多長時間才能恢復到更正常的消費模式？

Yes. Yes. So first of all, I think, as you know, we have strong positions. We have a clear strategy in these markets, and we have strong local management, which is critical in these times. If you start to group our emerging markets, overall, they are about, let's call it, 37% of our net revenue. But if you look at the groups within that, I think it's important to sort of separate them and understand a little bit what's going on. So first, there is China. China is over 10% of our emerging markets. We saw low-single-digit growth in Q1. We had a strong bounce back. We had significant share gains. And while maybe the categories, biscuits and gum are not quite back to where they were before the crisis, through that market share gain, we are doing quite well. And we see the market recovering gradually.

是的。首先，如您所知，我們擁有強大的市場地位。我們在這些市場擁有清晰的策略，並且擁有強大的本地管理團隊，這在當前情況下至關重要。如果我們對新興市場進行整體分析，它們大約占我們淨收入的37%。但如果您進一步分析其中的各個細分市場，我認為有必要將它們分開，並了解它們的具體情況。首先是中國。中國市場占我們新興市場總額的10%以上。我們在第一季實現了個位數低成長，並實現了強勁反彈，市場佔有率顯著提升。雖然餅乾和口香糖等類別可能尚未完全恢復到危機前的水平，但憑藉市場份額的成長，我們的表現相當不錯。我們看到市場正在逐步復甦。

India is another important market for us, of course, also 10% of our emerging markets. A significant closures of the traditional trade at the moment, which is about 75% of our revenues. There is clear some short-term impact, but we expect a sequential easing of restrictions. We have a very strong distribution system. We've got products that are across all price points with a strong presence in low unit price points. So I think the return there will be fast. Plus we can still grow by increasing our distribution and going into adjacencies.

印度當然是我們另一個重要的市場，占我們新興市場總額的10%。目前，傳統貿易管道（約占我們收入的75%）受到嚴重影響。短期內肯定會有一些衝擊，但我們預期限制措施會逐步放寬。我們擁有非常強大的經銷體系，產品涵蓋所有價位，尤其在低價位市場佔有重要份額。所以我認為，印度市場會很快復甦。此外，我們還可以透過擴大分銷管道和拓展相關領域來實現成長。

And then the last one there, Southeast Asia, is really into a similar position as India. So that cluster, I would say, China is already kind of back, and India and Southeast Asia will go fast.

最後一個地區，東南亞，情況和印度非常相似。所以我覺得，中國已經基本復甦，而印度和東南亞將會快速復甦。

A second cluster is Eastern and Central Europe, not that heavily affected in the first quarter. There will be more lockdown restrictions in the first half of April. But overall, traditional trade is only about 20% of revenues there. We have a strong team. We did also have strong share gains, and we have a very good branding strategy. So we think this part will not be as heavily affected, and we will be back to normal quite strongly.

第二個受影響較大的地區是東歐和中歐，第一季受到的影響相對較小。 4月上半月可能會有更多封鎖限制措施。但整體而言，傳統貿易僅佔該地區收入的20%左右。我們擁有一支強大的團隊，市場佔有率也實現了顯著成長，並且擁有非常出色的品牌策略。因此，我們認為該地區受到的影響不會太大，並且能夠強勁地恢復正常運作。

And then switching to Latin America, Mexico, which is -- those European markets are more than 20% of our emerging markets. And then Mexico, we think that we have a macro environment that's soft, but the operations are continuing to run well. They're related to the crisis and we see a deeper contraction, but we have a strong consistent record, and we think we will come back fast. So I would say about 2/3 of our emerging markets, we feel pretty good about. And then the others, that's where we have much stronger traditional trade. I'm talking about Argentina, Brazil, Middle East and Africa and WACCAM. I think those will take a little bit more time. There is a dynamic of traditional trade that is closed with some devaluation, so there will need to be some pricing. It's only 1/3 of our emerging markets, but that really remains somewhat challenged, and it will probably take us 6 to 9 months to return here. So that's a quick tour about -- around our emerging markets. I hope it was helpful. But I think it's important to group it in different clusters because they're not all created equal.

然後我們來看看拉丁美洲和墨西哥——這些歐洲市場占我們新興市場總額的20%以上。墨西哥的宏觀環境較為疲軟，但營運狀況依然良好。雖然受到危機的影響，經濟出現更深的萎縮，但我們擁有強勁且持續的業績記錄，相信能夠迅速復甦。因此，我認為我們大約三分之二的新興市場前景良好。至於其他市場，我們擁有更強勁的傳統貿易管道，例如阿根廷、巴西、中東和非洲以及西非、中非和非洲市場（WACCAM）。我認為這些市場需要更長的時間才能恢復。由於傳統貿易受到一定程度的衝擊，貨幣貶值加劇，因此需要進行價格調整。這些市場僅占我們新興市場的三分之一，但確實面臨一定的挑戰，我們可能需要6到9個月的時間才能恢復正常。以上就是我們新興市場的簡要介紹，希望對您有幫助。但我認為將它們分成不同的類別很重要，因為它們並非都具有相同的性質。

Your next question is from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的達拉·莫森尼安。

Two questions on my -- First, in developed markets where you've seen the demand strength, can you discuss how much of the increased demand may be more consumer pantry loading versus actual increased consumption. And based on the research you mentioned, how sticky higher consumption levels might be going forward when social distancing ends? And then in emerging markets, all the comments around duration were helpful. Can you give us a bit more clarity on if Q2, in aggregate, looks like the March sales decline that you guys outlined, the low single-digit decline. Obviously, there are various puts and takes by region but just trying to get a bit more clarity specifically on expectations for Q2 relative to what we saw in March in the emerging markets region.

我有兩個問題──首先，在你們觀察到需求強勁的已開發市場，能否談談這種需求成長有多少是消費者囤貨造成的，又有多少是實際消費增加造成的？根據你們提到的研究，社交隔離結束後，這種高消費水準的持續性如何？其次，在新興市場，你們對持續時間的評論很有幫助。能否更清楚地說明一下，第二季整體情況是否會像你們之前提到的3月那樣出現個位數的下滑？當然，不同地區的情況可能有所不同，但我只是想更清楚地了解一下，相對於新興市場3月份的情況，我們對第二季度的預期會是什麼樣子。

Okay. I'm sure that Luca will want to jump in, certainly on the second question, but if he wants to, on the first question. We're not in the same location today, we're all at home, so it's a little bit less fluid. So in the U.S., I would say, yes, there was an original pantry loading in our categories, and you would see in biscuits growth that would approach 30%. And then in the weeks after, we saw that come down to high single digit. First, low double digit, now high single digit. We've been interviewing consumers around the world, and we can say that it's clear there is increased snacking, and there's 3 basic reasons for that as we saw.

好的。我相信盧卡肯定會想參與討論，尤其是在第二個問題上，但如果他願意的話，也可以談談第一個問題。我們今天不在同一個地方，大家都在家，所以情況可能不太一樣。就美國而言，我想說的是，我們各個品類的食品儲藏室最初確實出現了囤貨潮，你會看到餅乾的銷量增長接近30%。但在接下來的幾周里，我們看到這個數字下降到了接近兩位數。先是接近兩位數，現在又降到接近個位數。我們一直在採訪世界各地的消費者，我們可以說，很明顯，人們的零食消費量增加了，正如我們所看到的，這主要有三個原因。

The first one is that there's a lot of out-of-home consumption that has now shifted to in home. And in home, there is more grazing, more continuous eating, and snacking takes up a much bigger role, particularly biscuits. The snacking categories that consumers tell us they are eating more is cheese. So Philadelphia is benefiting also. It's fruit and veggies, it's biscuits and some -- and salted snacks. So that's the one reason. The second reason is that sharing a snack with your kids, as everybody is sort of cooped up in the house, brings back a feeling of normalcy, of togetherness, calming everybody down, and we see them quote that as a big reason. And the third one is that there's some more experimenting going on. We see consumers -- new consumers entering our brand. So for brands like Oreo and Ritz that was somewhere between 15% to 20%. But in some of our other brands like Fig Newton or Nutter Butter, it's over 40% new consumers. So it's clear that the consumption is going up, the penetration is going up, and that's what we currently are seeing. And I believe as long as we are in this uncertain situation, and as long as we are not having the same out-of-home consumption, our categories, particularly biscuits, but also chocolate, will benefit from that.

首先，許多外食的消費現在都轉移到了家裡。在家，人們的飲食習慣更加隨意，零食也變得更加普遍，尤其是餅乾。消費者告訴我們，他們吃最多的零食是起司。因此，費城起司也從中受益。此外，水果蔬菜、餅乾和一些鹹味零食也越來越受歡迎。這是其中一個原因。其次，在大家都待在家裡的這段時間裡，和孩子們一起吃零食能帶來一種正常感，一種團聚感，讓每個人都感到平靜下來。我們發現，消費者以這一點作為重要的原因之一。第三，消費者正在進行更多的嘗試。我們看到一些新消費者開始嘗試我們的品牌。像奧利奧和麗滋這樣的品牌，新消費者佔比在15%到20%之間。但像無花果牛頓或花生醬夾心餅乾這樣的其他品牌，新消費者佔比超過了40%。所以很明顯，消費量正在上升，滲透率也在上升，這就是我們目前所看到的。我相信，只要我們仍處於這種不確定的時期，只要我們無法恢復到以往的家庭外消費水平，我們的產品類別，特別是餅乾，以及巧克力，都會從中受益。

By the way, what I quoted here in the U.S., we see the same in Europe. 50% of consumers there also say that they are increasing their snacking, more occasions and more quantity, and particularly biscuits, but also chocolate has seen quite an increase there. So that's a little bit on that consumption that we're seeing in developed markets.

順便一提，我剛才在美國提到的情況，在歐洲也同樣存在。 50%的歐洲消費者表示，他們增加了零食的攝取量，包括更多次的零食和更大的攝取量，尤其是餅乾，巧克力的消費量也出現了相當大的增長。以上就是我們在已開發市場觀察到的一些零食消費趨勢。

And maybe switch to emerging markets, I don't know, Luca, if you want to take that one, or I can go if you prefer.

或許可以轉到新興市場，我不知道，盧卡，如果你想去的話，或者如果你願意，我可以去。

Yes, well, maybe we can -- you start and then I'll complement and I will answer the Q2 part of the question.

是的，或許我們可以──你先開始，然後我補充並回答問題的第二部分。

So from an emerging markets perspective, what we're seeing is that in March, the effect was driven by some of the very serious and severe lockdowns that started to happen in places like India, the Philippines, Malaysia. And then they shifted gradually into Latin America and into places like South Africa. They -- of course, since our business is more in the traditional trade there, the effect has been bigger because the consumers don't go to those stores. Our sales force and distribution trucks are not always allowed to go there and the owners often close their stores. That is starting to come back. So April, for sure, we will see that effect. And I think that in May, we will start to see a significant easing of that situation. And then in June, we will gradually be back to normal. We are all set up to make sure that our route to market is intact, so we've been working very closely with our distributors to make sure that they're ready to go and that they're in business and surviving. And we are planning to immediately go back. And even in the tough circumstances, the situation, for instance, in India, at the beginning was much more severe than it is now. We're certainly not back to selling what we were selling before, but we've improved quite a bit already. So I would say, it's still a tough April. May, improving, and I think June, we should see some return close to normal situation as it relates to visiting and selling into these channels. Luca?

從新興市場的角度來看，我們看到，3月疫情的影響主要源自於印度、菲律賓、馬來西亞等地開始實施的非常嚴格的封鎖措施。隨後，疫情逐漸蔓延至拉丁美洲和南非等地。當然，由於我們的業務更集中在傳統貿易領域，因此受到的影響更大，因為消費者無法前往實體店。我們的銷售人員和配送車輛並非總是能獲準前往這些地區，店主也經常關閉店鋪。不過，這種情況正在逐漸恢復。因此，4月我們肯定會看到這種影響。我認為5月份情況會開始顯著緩解。到了6月份，我們將逐步恢復正常。我們已做好充分準備，確保市場通路暢通無阻，因此我們一直在與經銷商密切合作，確保他們做好準備，能夠正常運作並維持生存。我們計劃立即恢復正常運作。即使在如此艱難的情況下，例如在印度，疫情初期的情況比現在要糟糕得多。我們當然還沒有恢復到之前的銷售水平，但已經取得了相當大的進步。所以我認為，四月仍然很艱難。五月情況會有所好轉，我認為六月，在拜訪客戶和透過這些管道銷售產品方面，我們應該能夠看到接近正常的狀況。盧卡？

Yes. And there on Q2, I think, as you said yourself, there are really several puts and takes. Certainly, in the last part of Q1 in March, and those will extend into Q2. And there is a page in the presentation in the prepared remarks where we discuss several factors as key drivers. How each one will play out going forward, it is quite difficult to predict at this point in time. And there could be both positive and negative impact affecting our quarterly earnings. At this point, quite frankly, we see a deceleration of our Q2 top line versus Q1, given that as we have highlighted, the impact of emerging markets was partial in Q1, and it is going to its full extent certainly in April and most likely into part of May. We're also seeing some places that, while supply chain is keeping up quite well particularly in the U.S., and we are very proud with that, there are situations around the world where we have some capacity constraints. And one would be certain places in Europe in biscuit, there might be potentially some capacity-related issues.

是的。關於第二季度，正如您所說，確實存在一些利弊權衡。當然，第一季末，也就是三月的情況尤其明顯，而這些利弊也會延續到第二季​​。在準備的簡報中，我們用一頁篇幅討論了幾個關鍵驅動因素。至於每個因素未來將如何發展，目前很難預測。這些因素可能會對我們的季度收益產生正面和負面的雙重影響。坦白說，鑑於我們之前強調的，新興市場的影響在第一季只是部分顯現，而這種影響將在四月份全面顯現，並且很可能延續到五月份，因此我們預計第二季的營收成長速度將低於第一季。此外，我們也注意到，雖然供應鏈，尤其是在美國，運作良好，我們對此感到非常自豪，但在世界其他地區，我們仍然面臨一些產能限制。例如，歐洲某些地區的餅乾生產可能有產能的問題。

As we said very clearly, one of the elements that is coming up in Q2 is also the fact that we see higher cost to drive the business. But on the flip side, we are working quite intensely to find out any opportunities. We are not going to invest in places where we clearly are capacity-constrained or where the demand pickup is very high, but has the exciting intention is to go back in the second part of the year. And actually spend the same amount of money that we had planned in our original plan.

正如我們先前明確指出的，第二季面臨的挑戰之一是業務營運成本上升。但另一方面，我們也積極尋找各種機會。我們不會投資那些產能明顯受限或需求成長過快的地區，但我們計劃在下半年重返這些地區，並投入與原計劃相同的資金。

In this time of uncertainties, again, it is difficult to make predictions but we have to do certainties. As we said, we want to stay true to our strategy. We will continue to invest for growth. What Dirk said about more traditional brands being picked up by consumers these days as never before give us an opening to be able to introduce in a stable way these brands into the repertoire of our consumers. And we want to take that opportunity very, very seriously. We also, as I said, are looking at all costs. And both tactically and structurally, we are making decisions that will affect the cost structure going forward, trying to offset some of the cost implications that we clearly see in part of Q1. We will see more in Q2 and potentially some of that will stay also going forward.

在當前充滿不確定性的時期，預測未來固然困難，但我們必須確定一些事實。正如我們所說，我們希望堅持既定策略，並繼續投資以促進成長。德克指出，如今消費者對傳統品牌的接受度空前高漲，這為我們提供了一個契機，讓我們能夠以穩定的方式將這些品牌引入消費者的選擇範圍。我們非常重視這項機會。同時，正如我所說，我們也在全面評估各項成本。從策略和結構層面來看，我們正在做出一些將影響未來成本結構的決策，以抵消我們在第一季部分業務中明顯感受到的成本影響。我們將在第二季度看到更多影響，並且其中一些影響可能會持續到未來。

Your next question is from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭。

So I just had one question. In your -- in the conversation so far, there's been a lot of focus on how the lockdowns are affecting your business in emerging markets right now, and maybe how it affected in developed markets almost in a positive way. But I guess as we get through this that we end up potentially with the recession and a period of elevated unemployment, could you just talk about how that factors into sort of a recovery to normalcy? Do you have the flexibility to sort of adjust price points or do things to affect affordability? Just trying to understand how a recession potentially affects the ability to kind of get back to normal.

我只有一個問題。在先前的對話中，您似乎主要關注了封鎖措施對您在新興市場業務的影響，以及它可能對已開發市場產生的正面影響。但我想，隨著疫情發展，我們最終可能會面臨經濟衰退和高失業率，您能否談談這會如何影響經濟復甦？您是否有調整價格或採取措施來提高產品的可負擔性？我只是想了解經濟衰退可能會如何影響經濟恢復正常的能力。

Yes. So probably the points to make here, and of course, it's difficult to estimate because this is a very particular type of recession. We don't quite know how we're going -- how fast and how we're going to get out of it. So we base a little bit our learnings on past recessions. So our categories are durable, and they are not that much affected by these recessions we've seen in the past. And I'm talking largely about biscuit and chocolate. And in past recessions, they were affected but they didn't go down in a major way. I would also say our products are affordable, and they are skewed to in-home consumption. And as we discussed before, this is really a recession whereby in-home consumption is benefiting from it. Even our chocolate, which is largely tablet chocolate is not like bar chocolate, is largely in-home consumption. So I think we benefit from that. And then also private label, which in other categories does well. Private label is -- penetration in our categories is quite low. Although gum is not our biggest part of our business, we've seen in past recessions that, that is usually affected, and we see that already.

是的。所以，這裡要強調的是，當然，由於這次衰退的特殊性，很難準確估計。我們目前還不清楚經濟的走向——復甦的速度以及我們將如何走出困境。因此，我們只能藉鏡以往衰退的經驗。我們的產品類別具有較強的韌性，受以往衰退的影響較小。我主要指的是餅乾和巧克力。在過去的衰退中，它們雖然受到了一定程度的影響，但並沒有大幅下滑。此外，我們的產品價格親民，並且主要面向家庭消費。正如我們之前討論過的，這次衰退實際上促進了家庭消費。即使是我們的巧克力產品，雖然主要是片狀巧克力（而非條狀巧克力），也主要面向家庭消費。因此，我認為我們從中受益。另外，自有品牌在其他品類中表現良好，但在我們產品類別的滲透率卻很低。雖然口香糖不是我們最大的業務，但我們在過去的經濟衰退中看到，口香糖通常會受到影響，而我們現在已經看到了這種情況。

So our estimate at the moment was that before all this started, that our categories would grow 3% globally. We think that it's reasonable to assume that they may slow down to 2%, 2.5%. But we feel that we should try to make that up by gaining share. And as the recent period showed, that has been possible for us. The reason why we think we can do so good in share is that we are entering this in a position of strength. I believe we've done well in investing in the last 2 years in our brands. They are stronger than in the previous year, hence, the market share increase. The portfolio is modernized. Our communications are much more effective. We have seen in the past where in recessions we went in trying to protect, in the first place, the bottom line in cutting investments, in brands and capability. That is not the right approach because that results in share loss and volume decline. So there is -- we will try to play a much finer balance here between top line and bottom line going forward. And I think some of the issues we've had in the past, as it relates to execution, North America comes to mind 2 years ago. We don't have that at the moment. And I'm particularly happy to see what we've done recently in these months in North America or how China has come back. And I think execution is a strength for us.

所以，我們先前的預估是，在這一切開始之前，我們的品類在全球將會成長3%。我們認為，增速放緩至2%或2.5%是合理的。但我們認為應該努力透過提升市場佔有率來彌補這一損失。正如近期的業績所示，我們做到了這一點。我們之所以能夠取得如此優異的市場份額，是因為我們正處於有利地位。我相信，過去兩年我們在品牌投資方面取得了成功。我們的品牌比去年更加強大，因此市場佔有率得以提升。我們的產品組合也更加現代化。我們的傳播策略也更有效。過去，在經濟衰退時期，我們往往會優先考慮保護利潤，削減對品牌和能力的投資。但這並非正確的做法，因為這會導致市場佔有率和銷售量的下降。因此，未來我們將努力在營收和利潤之間找到更平衡的平衡點。我認為過去我們在執行上遇到的一些問題，例如兩年前北美市場的情況，現在已經不存在了。我尤其高興地看到我們最近幾個月在北美的成就，以及中國市場的復甦。我認為執行力是我們的優勢。

Now having said all that, we are making some adjustments that will make it easier for us during the recession. Now we are reducing our portfolio in the number of SKUs and also the number of innovation initiatives. We are working very hard on the right pack sizes, doing what we call PPA. On one hand, to get the price points right in emerging markets; but on the other hand, also to have the right at-home packs. We are already looking at investments in overheads and going through all our ZBB pillars again and doing an extra round of savings there. We are doing the same in our supply chain. And we are looking for efficiencies as it relates in our ways of working since the crisis showed that we can work in different ways. And maybe we don't need all the offices that we currently have around the world. So there is a major effort going -- taking place as it relates to the costs in the business.

說了這麼多，我們正在進行一些調整，以幫助我們度過經濟衰退期。目前，我們正在減少產品組合中的SKU數量以及創新項目的數量。我們正在努力尋找合適的包裝規格，也就是我們所說的PPA（價格、價格和產品組合最佳化）。一方面，是為了在新興市場找到合適的定價點；另一方面，也是為了提供合適的家用包裝。我們已經在考慮降低營運成本，並重新審視我們的零基預算（ZBB）支柱，以進一步節省開支。我們在供應鏈方面也採取了同樣的措施。此外，由於危機顯示我們可以採取不同的工作方式，我們也在尋求提高工作效率的方法。或許我們並不需要目前在全球各地設立的所有辦事處。因此，我們正在大力推動與業務成本相關的各項工作。

So having said all that, I think that, yes, there will be a recession. It's going to be different by country. Some countries have seen devaluations where we will need to price more. Other countries, we're already set up well, and it's really about getting in front of the consumer and communicating. So it's a mixed bag. But we feel confident that we have the right recipe to get through the recession in a relatively strong and fast way.

綜上所述，我認為經濟衰退是必然的。各國情況會有所不同。有些國家已經出現貨幣貶值，我們需要提高產品價格。而對於其他一些國家，我們已經做好了充分的準備，關鍵在於如何更好地與消費者溝通。所以情況比較複雜。但我們有信心，我們擁有應對經濟衰退的正確方法，能夠以相對強勁且快速的方式渡過難關。

Yes. Maybe just one thing I would add to that. It is -- Bryan, I just step back and you look at the broader strategy we had at CAGNY, we still see tremendous opportunities in emerging markets in terms of distribution, route-to-market adjacencies. And I think on the other side, there could be organic and inorganic opportunity as well. So we are looking at everything and trying to be ready for maybe challenging times. But we believe we can emerge even stronger in those markets.

是的。或許我還要補充一點。布萊恩，我只是想從整體上審視一下我們在CAGNY的策略，我們仍然看到新興市場在分銷和通路拓展方面蘊藏著巨大的機會。我認為另一方面，也可能存在內生式成長和外延式成長的機會。所以我們正在全面評估各種可能性，並努力為可能的挑戰做好準備。但我們相信，我們能夠在這些市場中變得更強大。

Your next question is from Robert Moskow with Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的羅伯特·莫斯科。

I want to know about your developed market sales in 2Q. And it looks like the sales trends are going to remain very strong because of at-home consumption. Have you done any math to figure out how much the first quarter benefited from onetime pantry loading? And maybe that could help us figure out how to think about North America sales growth in 2Q and maybe even in Europe. I understand the emerging market guidance. But I guess, I'm not sure how much to decelerate developed markets in 2Q.

我想了解你們第二季已開發市場的銷售情況。看起來由於居家消費，銷售趨勢將保持強勁。你們有沒有計算過第一季受一次性囤貨潮的影響有多大？或許這能幫助我們更能預測第二季北美乃至歐洲的銷售成長。我理解你們對新興市場的預期，但我不太確定第二季已開發市場的成長應該會放緩多少。

So maybe I'll start and then, Dirk -- yes, sorry, do you want to go, Dirk?

那也許我會先開始，然後，德克──是的，抱歉，你想去嗎，德克？

No, no, no. Go ahead, Luca. No problem.

不，不，不。盧卡，你去吧。沒問題。

Yes. I think on the specific question on how much you're going to see into Q2, again, we see heightened consumption in North America and in some parts of Europe. I think, look, the simple way to answer this question is before the breakout of COVID, our categories were a little bit north of 3%. And on top of that, we were gaining share. I think both on positive and negatives, what you see as a difference versus the 3 category, the 3%-plus category and the share gains is the difference that is attributable to COVID. And I would leave it there, high level, because it is quite frankly, very difficult to understand what would have happened otherwise. I mean this is literally very different than we could have expected, any one of us.

是的。關於您提到的第二季業績預期，我認為北美和歐洲部分地區的消費量有所成長。簡單來說，在新冠疫情爆發之前，我們的產品類別佔比略高於3%。而且，我們的市佔率還在不斷擴大。我認為，無論從正面或負面的角度來看，您看到的與佔比3%以上的產品類別以及市場份額成長之間的差異，都歸因於新冠疫情。我就先說到這裡，因為坦白說，很難想像如果沒有疫情，情況會如何。我的意思是，這與我們任何人的預期都截然不同。

I think form the other side, I would also tell you, when I look at January and February, those were great months to us. And in developing markets in places like India, as one example, we saw exactly the same trends as last year, clearly with the exception of China that got impacted earlier. So it's very difficult for us to tell you what it would have been. But the reference point that I would have, if I had to make an educated guess is 3% categories and share gains in line with what you saw in Q4 last year to give you a little bit of the consumption understanding.

我認為從另一個角度來看，回顧一月和二月，這兩個月對我們來說都是非常好的月份。以印度等新興市場為例，我們看到了與去年完全相同的趨勢，當然，中國市場受到的影響較早。因此，我們很難預測去年同期的情況。但如果非要做出合理的推測，我會認為各品類和市場份額的增長幅度在3%左右，與去年第四季度的情況基本一致，這樣可以幫助您更好地了解消費狀況。

Okay, a quick follow-up. You mentioned higher costs to drive the operations in 2Q. Can you give us a way to qualify your overall COVID cost increases for the year? And how much is it going to be higher in 2Q versus 1Q?

好的，還有一個後續問題。您提到第二季度營運成本上升。能否詳細說明一下您全年因新冠疫情導致的成本成長？第二季的成本比第一季高出多少？

Look, again, this is -- the reason why we didn't give guidance is because we don't have visibility on some of these elements, and particularly on the duration of the crisis and some of the costs are related to unutilized assets or under absorption, which clearly is a little bit of an element that will play out in Q2. Just for reference, the extra COVID cost in Q1 was around about $40 million to $50 million, most likely closer to $50 million than $40 million. And all of these excludes the volume impact of COVID, so purely cost. In Q1, we had $40 million to $50 million. In Q2, we are going to see quite a bit of a pickup. And the reason being that, particularly in emerging markets, there is a lockdown that is impacting our sales force, there are stranded costs. We continue seeing the extra bonuses that we're paying to the sales force and to people that operate in our factories. There is a higher level of absenteeism. And in some places, there is a little bit of temporary labor that we need. And in some cases, there is also lower output. So I have in mind the number, but again, it is very preliminary. We are trying to manage it down. And most importantly, what you have to assume is that on top of that cost, there will be a series of initiatives on the side that will try to minimize costs where it doesn't really matter in Q2 to spend with intention again to potentially reinvest some of those savings in the second part of the year.

再次強調，我們沒有給出業績指引的原因在於，我們無法預估某些因素，尤其是危機持續時間，而且部分成本與未充分利用的資產或吸收不足有關，這顯然會在第二季度有所體現。作為參考，第一季因新冠疫情產生的額外成本約為4000萬至5000萬美元，很可能更接近5000萬美元而非4000萬美元。所有這些成本均未計入新冠疫情對銷售的影響，純粹是成本。第一季度，我們的成本為4000萬至5000萬美元。第二季度，我們預計成本將大幅回升。原因在於，尤其是在新興市場，封鎖措施影響了我們的銷售團隊，造成了成本滯留。我們仍在向銷售團隊和工廠員工支付額外獎金。員工缺勤率較高。在某些地區，我們還需要一些臨時工。在某些情況下，產量也會下降。所以我心裡有個大概的數字，但再次強調，這只是非常初步的估計。我們正在努力控製成本。最重要的是，你必須考慮到，除了這些成本之外，我們還會推出一系列其他舉措，力求在第二季度盡可能降低那些無關緊要的支出，以便將部分節省下來的資金重新投入到下半年的項目中。

Your next question is from Steven Strycula with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Steven Strycula。

Luca, a quick clarification, not to go back to the slide -- not to go back to Slide 6 too much. But I think what a lot of people are trying to feel out right now is the difference between deceleration in Q2 in sales versus decline on a year-over-year basis in sales. And I think what I'm hearing is given what's happening to developed markets that should be able to -- the math itself should be able to offset what's happening in EMs. That would be my quick clarification question, and then I have a more fundamental question for Dirk.

盧卡，我先澄清一下，不要再回到投影片－不要過度討論投影片6。但我認為現在很多人都在試圖弄清楚的是，第二季銷售額成長放緩和同比銷售額下降之間的差異。我聽到的說法是，鑑於已開發市場的情況，理論上——從數學角度來看——應該能夠抵消新興市場的情況。這是我的澄清問題，接下來我還有一個更根本的問題想問德克。

Look, again, it is really tough for us to give you a number at this point in time. What we see -- we have regular calls with the regions every single week, and we go to business unit by business unit. There is quite a bit of volatility week to week. What I can tell you is that if you ask me an educated guess at this point in time, we see continuation of the U.S. quite strongly into April and into the second part of the quarter. But we see material declines in emerging markets that have come to a standstill. All in all, I would tell you, it might be negative. But there might be a situation where that impact is minimized if we can keep up with the demand supply, particularly in Europe and in the U.S. So at this point in time, you're not going to see a high number in Q2, as you saw in Q1. It could be potentially negative. I don't know exactly how much. I don't expect it to be materially negative. That may give you a little bit of color.

再次強調，目前我們很難給出一個具體的數字。我們每週都會與各區域進行例行電話會議，並逐一業務部門進行分析。每週的波動都相當大。就目前而言，如果讓我做出有根據的預測，我認為美國市場在4月以及第二季下半年將繼續保持強勁成長。但新興市場則出現大幅下滑，甚至陷入停滯。總而言之，我認為第二季可能會出現負成長。但如果我們能夠滿足市場需求，尤其是在歐洲和美國，那麼這種影響或許可以降到最低。因此，目前來看，第二季的業績不會像第一季那麼高。它甚至有可能出現負成長。我無法準確預測具體幅度，但我預計不會出現實質的負成長。希望這些資訊能對您有所幫助。

Very helpful. And then, Dirk, just wanted to think through a little bit more to maybe Andrew Lazar's question about emerging markets. How do we think about -- given the managerial changes you guys have made in the marketplace, how does brand managers are thinking about managing the business on both maybe like a 3- to 12-month view? How are they thinking about driving price pack architecture in some of those regions? Are they resourcing themselves a little bit differently in this type of environment to gain share? And how do you think about pricing?

非常有幫助。 Dirk，我還想就Andrew Lazar關於新興市場的問題再深入思考一下。鑑於你們在市場管理方面所做的調整，品牌經理們是如何考慮在未來3到12個月內管理業務的？他們是如何考慮在這些地區制定價格策略的？在這種環境下，他們是否會調整資源配置來取得市場佔有率？你們又是如何看待定價的呢？

Yes. Yes, I think you got it, right. So there's a number of changes that our marketing people need to go through. The first one is to understand the mindset of the consumer. And we've already started to adapt the communication surrounding our brands in different places around the world. To give you an idea what type of form that takes in China, as everybody was at home, we started to realize that cooking with Oreo was something that they really like to do. So we switched our communication to cooking with Oreo, and it had a great effect on our sales. So we're doing a number of things. As you can imagine, there's a lot of links to helping community and so on. And Oreo around the world is about staying playful. So that's one, make sure that what our brands communicate is linked to what is in the mind of the consumer or on the mind of the consumer.

是的，我想你明白了。我們的行銷人員需要做出一些改變。首先是了解消費者的心態。我們已經開始調整我們在世界各地不同地區的品牌傳播策略。舉個例子，在中國，當大家都待在家裡的時候，我們開始意識到用奧利奧餅乾做菜是他們非常喜歡做的事情。所以我們把傳播內容轉向了用奧利奧餅乾做菜，這對我們的銷售產生了巨大的影響。所以我們正在做很多事情。正如你所想，這其中有很多與幫助社區相關的內容等等。奧利奧在全球都秉持著「玩樂至上」的理念。所以，首先，我們要確保我們的品牌傳播內容與消費者的想法或他們正在思考的內容相符。

The second one is to understand at which price points we need to be and that's a lot of work in PPA, promotions, different packs. And the packs might be smaller or bigger, as I explained, between stay-at-home or home consumption and the on-the-go consumption. They also need to make sure that we linked to the different opportunities that we saw with the local brands. So what we've seen is that suddenly our local brands are getting an increased interest from consumers. I was explaining the inflow of new consumers into those brands. And so what we also asked them to do is to make sure that we give a good boost to those local brands. This might be a unique opportunity for us to make sure that we get even more traction there.

第二點是了解我們需要將價格定位在哪些價位，這需要大量的PPA（價格、促銷和包裝）工作。正如我所解釋的，包裝的大小可能會有所不同，這取決於居家消費和外出消費的需求。他們還需要確保我們能抓住先前在本地品牌方面發現的各種機會。我們發現，消費者對本地品牌的興趣突然激增。我之前解釋過，這些品牌吸引了大量新消費者。因此，我們也要求他們確保大力扶持這些本地品牌。這或許是我們獲得更大市場認可的絕佳機會。

And then the last thing that I would mention, there is much more we're doing, but this is a moment to really what I would call it attack the market and be strong in the second half of the year. So between the cost savings that we are doing and then shifts within our marketing budgets, where we are shifting a lot of our investment to working media, we are hoping to see a significant increase of our media investment versus last year in the second half of the year, while keeping our P&L, obviously, within reason. And I think that could have a big effect on the consumer reaction in that second half.

最後我想提一點，我們還有很多其他工作要做，但現在正是我們全力進軍市場、力爭在下半年取得佳績的關鍵時刻。因此，我們一方面透過節省成本，另一方面調整行銷預算，將大量投資轉向有效媒體，希望下半年媒體投入能比去年同期大幅成長，同時確保損益表維持在合理範圍內。我認為這會對下半年的消費者反應產生重大影響。

Maybe other thing that I would mention is that we are also using this opportunity to significantly reduce the number of SKUs to significant -- we always have had a lot of innovation projects not always the most useful ones, I would say. So we are reducing significantly our innovation projects. So we're working on making our business simpler. So that gives you sort of the headlines, I would say, of what our marketing teams are working through at this stage in trying to adapt to this new situation and making sure that we really win in the second half of the year.

我還要補充一點，我們正在利用這個機會大幅減少SKU數量——我們一直以來都做了很多創新項目，但並非所有項目都卓有成效。因此，我們正在大幅減少創新項目，並努力簡化業務流程。以上就是我們行銷團隊目前為適應新情勢、確保下半年取得佳績而開展的工作的大致內容。

Your next question is from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

I guess maybe just to build on that dialogue. Dirk, in your walk around the emerging markets earlier, I think you did a good job of paving the path towards top line recovery, if I understood you correctly. But I guess my first -- my question is from a profitability perspective, does the anticipated improvement run in parallel to that top line recovery with the reabsorption of some underutilized costs? Or is it likely to come on a slightly further lag given some of those investments initiatives you just spoke to in response to Steve Strycula's question, the leaning in to win in the back half and beyond? Just give us a little perspective, that would be great.

我想或許可以藉此機會進一步展開討論。德克，如果你之前走訪了新興市場，我認為你為營收復甦鋪平了道路，如果我理解沒錯的話。但我的第一個問題是——從獲利能力的角度來看，預期中的改善是否會與營收復甦同步，並伴隨著一些未充分利用成本的重新吸收？或者考慮到你剛才在回答史蒂夫·斯特里庫拉的問題時提到的那些投資舉措，也就是為了在下半年及以後取得更大成功而採取的策略，盈利能力的改善是否會稍稍滯後一些？請給我們一些見解，那就太好了。

Yes. Yes. Yes. And I'll maybe give my perspective on it and then Luca, I'm sure, will jump in also. So the thinking is that we do not have to invest a lot in the second half -- or sorry, in the second quarter because there's still a lot of channel restructurings and sales restrictions and for the consumers that are at home, we told you that the consumption is there. So -- and on top, we are complementing that with a severe -- or a serious effort on costs that we've launched immediately. The culmination of that will be shifting our investment to the second half and having a significant increase in our media spend. But at the same time, using those cost reductions, as we discussed, to keep our bottom line, whether I would call, within reason. I don't know. It's difficult for us to really forecast Q2. So it's even more difficult to do H2. But to have a year that we come out, and we are ready to enter '21 where we have invested in our brands, they're strong. We have increased our market share. We've done that through the moves that I explained. And we have a reasonable bottom line for the year. So that we feel that '21 can be a real winning year for us. That's the thinking. And we've been working through the numbers to make that happen. We accompany that. Some of the cost work we're doing has to see with our supply chain, with some of our network opportunities. So you can imagine if you reduce your SKUs quite a lot, there's many benefits across the business for that. So some of the work also aims at keeping our supply chain costs under control so that our gross margins also benefit from that. So that's the thinking. That's what we're trying to achieve. Maybe, Luca, you want to add a little bit to that?

是的，是的，是的。我可能會談談我的看法，然後盧卡肯定也會加入討論。我們的想法是，我們不需要在第二季投入太多資金，因為通路重組和銷售限制仍然存在，而且我們之前也說過，居家消費者的消費需求依然存在。所以，除此之外，我們還立即啟動了一項嚴格的成本控制措施。最終目標是將投資轉移到下半年，並大幅增加媒體支出。但同時，正如我們之前討論的，我們將利用這些成本削減措施來保持利潤，至於利潤是否合理，我不太確定。我們很難準確預測第二季度，所以預測下半年就更難了。但我們希望今年結束時，我們已經為2021年做好了準備，因為我們對品牌進行了投資，它們實力雄厚，市場份額也有所提升。我們已經透過我剛才解釋的措施實現了這一點。而且我們今年的獲利目標也比較合理。因此，我們相信2021年會是真正意義上的成功年。這就是我們的想法。我們一直在仔細分析數據，並努力實現這一目標。同時，我們也採取了一些措施。我們正在進行的一些成本控制工作與我們的供應鏈以及一些網路機會有關。您可以想像，如果大幅減少庫存單位（SKU），將會為整個業務帶來許多益處。因此，我們的一些工作也旨在控制供應鏈成本，從而提高毛利率。這就是我們的想法，也是我們努力的目標。盧卡，你有什麼補充嗎？

Yes. I think to your question about the level of underutilization of some of the assets that the market resumes in emerging markets, there might be potentially a lag. I would also tell you one thing, though. It is clear at this point in time that some of the trade stock in some of the emerging markets is quite low. And so I think there will be a phase as we resume business to normalcy in some of these markets where we will have to make more volume. I think I expect then consumption and expectations from consumers to grow steadily as the thing was going before. So there might be a situation where we actually are able to resume production and get back to some of the levels before crisis quite quickly.

是的。關於您提出的新興市場市場復甦後部分資產利用率不足的問題，我認為可能會有一定的滯後性。不過，我也想指出一點。目前很明顯，部分新興市場的貿易庫存相當低。因此，我認為隨著這些市場逐步恢復正常運營，我們需要經歷一個提高交易量的階段。我預計屆時消費和消費者預期將像之前一樣穩定成長。因此，我們或許能夠迅速恢復生產，並回到危機前的部分水準。

As Dirk said, emerging markets for us are a little bit of a mixed bag. I would say, if I take China as one example, the fact that we were able to deliver, I think the number was 3-plus percent in Q1, that was with volume. And the concept here is, if China is the example of what can happen, and we apply that model to everything. I think it can be very fast. I'm afraid there will be situations where that will be the case. Others where maybe it will take more time. But we don't see a huge lag, and we don't see under-absorption as we enter the second part of the year or even as we talk about Q4.

正如德克所說，新興市場對我們來說情況比較複雜。以中國為例，我們第一季能夠交付，而且交付量也達到了3%以上。關鍵在於，如果中國的情況可以作為參考，我們將這種模式應用到所有市場，我認為速度會非常快。我擔心有些情況下確實如此，而有些情況可能需要更長時間。但我們預計不會有嚴重的滯後，也不會出現下半年甚至第四季供不應求的情況。

Your next question is from Chris Growe with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Chris Growe。

Just a question for you, if I could, first, would be around the second quarter outlook. Are you anticipating or incorporating some like pantry de-loading by consumers. So has the first quarter benefited unusually from this environment, pantry loading, and then we have some of the negative side of that, if you will, in the second quarter. I know there's probably an answer by country. But from a high level, I'm curious how you see that.

我有個問題想請教您，首先是關於第二季度的展望。您是否預期或考慮到消費者會減少食品儲藏室的庫存？也就是說，第一季是否異常受惠於這種囤貨潮，而第二季又會受到一些負面影響？我知道每個國家的情況可能有所不同，但我很好奇您是如何看待這個問題的。

At this stage, and we do a lot of research. We've invested quite a bit in talking to consumers and understanding. At this stage, we do not have the impression that the consumer is sitting on a huge pantry full of our cookies. We've seen -- through these interviews, we've seen some significant consumption. And so we are not necessarily thinking there will be an enormous pantry de-loading. Our products have a limited shelf life, not as limited as some other snacking products, but they are not good forever. So I think the consumer, over the course of the second quarter and certainly into the third quarter, will be inclined to -- if they would have pantry stock, to consume it. So we are not expecting a massive effect on it.

現階段，我們做了大量的研究工作，投入了相當多的資源與消費者溝通交流，深入了解他們的需求。目前，我們並不認為消費者會囤積大量的餅乾。透過這些訪談，我們發現消費者確實有相當數量的餅乾被消耗掉。因此，我們並不認為會出現大規模的清倉潮。我們的產品保存期限有限，雖然不像某些零食那麼短，但也不是永遠都好吃。所以我認為，在第二季度以及第三季度，如果消費者有存貨，他們很可能會盡快吃掉。因此，我們預計不會出現大規模的清倉潮。

And then I have -- go ahead, Luca...

然後我還有──盧卡，請開始吧…

I just want to make one clarification, as Steve is writing to us. The comment I made about the top line, as it relates to Q2, it was not only for emerging market. It was for total Mondelez when I said that we might be slightly negative for Q2, but there is still a little bit of a level of uncertainty. And we don't know exactly how Q2 will pan out for the company. Sorry, Chris. Go on.

我只想澄清一點，就像史蒂夫寫信給我們一樣。我之前關於營收的評論，就第二季而言，並非僅指新興市場。我指的是整個億滋國際，我說我們第二季可能會略微虧損，但仍存在一些不確定性。我們目前還無法確切知道公司第二季的業績會如何。抱歉，克里斯。你繼續。

No, that's okay. Thanks for the clarification. So just the second question would be in relation to the incremental pricing that you'll need in the business to offset some of those currency-induced cost inflation, if anything, I'm just curious, does that start as quickly as the second quarter? Or you need to get, again, kind of these countries up and running before you start to implement pricing to start to offset some of the cost inflation?

不，沒關係。謝謝你的解釋。第二個問題是關於你們業務中需要增加的定價，以抵銷部分匯率波動帶來的成本上漲。我只是好奇，這是否會在第二季就開始實施？還是需要先讓這些國家的業務步上正軌，然後再開始實施定價策略來抵銷部分成本上漲？

Yes. Look, the reality is we are not necessarily going to face, at least from a transaction standpoint, the pressure right away. We have good coverage in some of -- all our commodities. Some actually went up during the crisis -- or are going up. And even in exchange rates, we are covered quite a bit. And I would say also there are puts and takes. Imagine, we are also importing some stuff from some of these markets that have been impacted by devaluation. So I think you can expect that we are making decisions now to optimize independently from the pipeline that we have, the price realization and the volume implications of it.

是的。你看，現實情況是，至少從交易角度來看，我們不一定會立即面臨壓力。我們的大部分——或者說所有大宗商品——都有良好的保障。有些商品在危機期間價格上漲，或正在上漲。即使在匯率方面，我們也做了相當多的準備。而且我認為，我們也有買賣雙方。想想看，我們也從一些受貶值影響的市場進口商品。所以我認為，你可以預料到，我們現在正在做出一些決策，以優化現有供應，而這些決策與價格實現以及交易量的影響無關。

And so we are seeing some price increases already in some marketplaces. And in some cases, we are implementing those or we are following strictly some of the competitors. But reality is we have a little bit of time in terms of protecting our margins. And importantly, this is not about a pure line price increase. This is about what we call revenue growth management. And it will be a fine balance between getting productivities, creating the right price point for consumers. And implementing the right actions in the marketplace through advertising, for instance, to ensure that volume is kept and scale is kept.

因此，我們已經看到一些市場出現了價格上漲。在某些情況下，我們會採取相應的措施，或嚴格遵循一些競爭對手的做法。但實際上，我們在保護利潤率方面還有一些時間。重要的是，這並非單純的漲價，而是我們所謂的收入成長管理。這需要在提高生產效率、為消費者創造合適的價格點以及在市場中採取正確的行動（例如透過廣告）之間取得平衡，以確保銷售和規模的維持。

We are working through those plans literally as we speak. But again, you might expect that independently from coverage that we have, we might make some decisions in the second part of the year in order to give a little bit of breathing room as we enter 2021.

我們正在切實推進這些計劃。但您或許可以預料到，無論我們目前的計劃如何，我們可能會在今年下半年做出一些決定，以便在進入2021年時留出一些喘息空間。

Your next question is from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑森·英格利希。

A couple of quick questions for me, if I can. We -- and I apologize if I missed this, but you mentioned EMs down 1% or so, down low single digits, sorry, down low single digits throughout the month of March. But I think you also said that it decelerated substantially in the late part of March and remained at that much weaker level through April. What is that weaker level?

如果可以的話，我想問幾個問題。我們——如果我錯過了什麼，請見諒——您提到新興市場在整個三月下跌了大約1%，跌幅在個位數，抱歉，是個位數。但我想您也說過，跌勢在三月下旬大幅放緩，並在整個四月都維持在較低水準。這個較低水準具體是多少呢？

Look, again, the -- it really depends on a market by market. I'll give you one example. Take India, okay, India for us, as Dirk said, is a great market. Obviously, we all know the potential of that market. It is a $1 billion company for us. I would tell you that when the original lockdown was announced -- and by the way, there was an unofficial lockdown before that, the company went absolutely blank. And it was impossible, given the fact that we have multiple plants to actually get people into the plant and to have people from the distribution centers to be able to supply the distributors. And it was impossible to even get trucks. So the first phase of the crisis, we literally sold close to 0 in that specific market. Today, I would say, we are recovering, and we are a little bit higher than the half of the sales that we had last year on a more regular basis. So the situation is improving day by day. But these are the magnitude of the issues we are talking about. And again, the trade is absolutely empty. There is -- so we have an opportunity as we go back to receive the pipeline, and we are absolutely ready. And you can also imagine that given the strength of that market, we want to do exactly what we did in China. And so the recovery curve might be very close to China in that market.

再說一遍，這真的要看具體市場的情況。我舉個例子。就拿印度來說吧，正如德克所說，印度對我們來說是個巨大的市場。顯然，我們都知道這個市場的潛力。它對我們公司來說價值10億美元。我要告訴你的是，當最初的封鎖令宣佈時——順便說一句，在那之前就已經有非正式的封鎖了——公司業務完全停滯了。考慮到我們有多家工廠，根本無法讓員工到工廠上班，也無法讓配送中心的員工給經銷商供貨。甚至連卡車都找不到。所以在危機的第一階段，我們在這個特定市場的銷售量幾乎是零。現在，我想說，我們正在復甦，銷量已經略高於去年同期水平的一半，而且比較穩定。所以情況正在一天天好轉。但這就是我們目前面臨的問題的嚴重性。再次強調，貿易市場一片蕭條。確實如此——所以我們有機會重新接手管道，而且我們已經做好了萬全準備。您也可以想像，鑑於該市場的強勁勢頭，我們希望複製我們在中國的成功經驗。因此，該市場的復甦曲線可能與中國非常接近。

There are other markets like WACCAM, where we sell predominantly through traditional trade and distributors where gum is an important part of the business and so is candy. That market, again, has been materially declining in the last few weeks. I think then, it can go back to normalcy, but it will take some time. So it is really a mixed bag, and it is impossible for me to give you a number that is exactly in Q2 for emerging markets or, for that matter, for the totality of the company.

還有一些市場，例如WACCAM，我們主要透過傳統通路和經銷商銷售產品，口香糖和糖果都是重要的銷售產品。這個市場在過去幾週也出現了顯著下滑。我認為它最終會恢復正常，但這需要一些時間。所以情況比較複雜，我無法準確預測新興市場第二季的業績，也無法預測公司整體的業績。

Okay. Okay. Well, I appreciate the effort on it. One more question, and I'll pass it on. I imagine that many people are going to interpret your withdrawal of guidance as an indication that the numbers you had put out there before are no longer achievable, that you're likely to earn something much less. As we run through -- as you run through sort of the puts and takes, the pros and cons, the balance feels -- well, it's just a little more balanced. I've got some tailwinds in DMs. I've got some headwinds in EMs. I've got some cost pressure. I've got cost cuts. I've got promotional retraction. All these other offsets. Is it reasonable to assume that the numbers that were out there before on constant currency are indeed unachievable? Or is it just that the range of outcomes is now so wide that you don't want to pin yourself down?

好的，好的，感謝您為此付出的努力。還有一個問題，我會轉達給您。我想很多人會把您撤回業績指引解讀為先前公佈的數字無法實現，您最終的收入可能會大幅下降。我們一起分析過——您也分析過各種利弊，權衡利弊之後，感覺——嗯，現在情況更加平衡了。我在國內市場有一些利多因素，新興市場有一些不利因素，成本壓力也很大，需要削減成本，促銷活動也減少了。所有這些因素都會相互抵消。那麼，之前以固定匯率計算的業績目標真的無法達成了嗎？還是說，現在各種可能性太大，您不想給自己設定過高的目標？

I think it is really the latter. Let me give you a little bit of a perspective of where it's from then -- in terms of that. First of all, we are saying nothing around the year. So saying nothing is saying nothing. It's not saying something and not wanting to say it. It is really -- we don't know at this point in time. But let's step back for a second. The first quarter was 6.5%. I told you that Q2 might be moderately negative. The average of 2 quarters might be, I don't know, 3% or so. And again, I'm guessing at this point. I don't know how long it will take to recover the situation in the second part, but I also told you that there might be a situation where we have to refill the trade. Now I think that is the top line as far as I see it. So there might be maybe a scenario where we might be close to the original guidance we gave you, which was 3-plus percent. Now I don't expect it to be the 4-or-plus percent that we saw in some quarters last year, quite frankly.

我認為確實是後者。讓我從這個角度稍微解釋一下。首先，我們對今年的情況不做任何預測。所以，不做預測就是不做預測，而不是想說什麼卻不想說。目前我們確實還不清楚。但我們先回顧一下。第一季是6.5%。我之前說過，第二季可能會略微下滑。兩個季度的平均成長率可能是，我不知道，大概3%​​左右。再次強調，這只是我的猜測。我不知道第二季度需要多久才能恢復，但我之前也說過，我們可能需要重新調整交易策略。我認為這就是我目前看到的最主要情況。所以，或許會出現一種情況，我們最終的成長率會接近我們最初給出的預期，也就是3%以上。坦白說，我預計今年的成長率不會像去年某些季度那樣達到 4% 甚至更高。

On the bottom line, I think the situation is different. The situation is the following. There are multiple puts and takes. The number one element that comes into play in Q2 and in the second part of the year is the ongoing extra earning cost. I think if you take Q2, there will be, as we said very explicitly, some extra cost that we will incur. Now all these costs most likely will not stay in the second part of the year. Some of those will subside. Some of those will stay. I think our job is to make sure that between cost savings and between incremental pricing, we create that space into the P&L to be able to invest and to offset part of these costs. So that's the framework we have in mind.

總而言之，我認為情況有所不同。具體情況如下：存在多種利弊權衡。第二季以及下半年最重要的因素是持續的額外獲利成本。正如我們之前明確指出的，第二季將會產生一些額外成本。當然，這些成本很可能不會全部持續到下半年。其中一些會減少，而另一些則會持續存在。我認為我們的任務是確保透過成本節約和價格調整，在損益表中創造足夠的空間進行投資，並抵消部分成本。這就是我們目前考慮的框架。

I think, again, the idea for us is how do we make all the developing markets, which are the most impacted, recovering with the shape of the curve that we saw in China. That's the challenge we have today. And we believe we will have to invest some money in the second part of the year, as we have said, particularly in working media, to ensure that we protect our franchises and we protect all the share gains that we are seeing. We are winning in this environment. I mean the share gains that we are seeing at this point in time, I haven't seen never in -- certainly in Mondelez. And those share gains, it is our job to protect and potentially to expand going forward. That, I believe, is the name of the game for us.

我認為，我們目前面臨的關鍵問題是如何讓所有受影響最大的發展中市場都像中國一樣實現復甦。這就是我們今天面臨的挑戰。正如我們之前所說，我們相信下半年必須加大投資，尤其是在媒體業務方面，以確保我們能夠保護我們的品牌，並鞏固我們目前取得的市場份額成長。在這種環境下，我們取得了成功。我的意思是，我們目前取得的市佔率成長，在億滋國際史上是前所未有的。而我們的任務就是保護這些市場份額，並有可能在未來進一步擴大它們。我相信，這才是我們成功的關鍵。

And your final question comes from Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

最後一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Alexia Howard。

So just a couple of quick ones from me. Firstly, should we be concerned about European chocolate in the upcoming couple of quarters. Are you able to give us a rough idea of how much or what proportion of that business is tied to on-the-go impulse-type purchases that might be at risk in this kind of environment where we're not on the go? And then the follow-up question is really, you talked a lot about the share gains in China. And that potentially being a pattern for what you'd like to see in other emerging markets. Were the competitors somehow compromised? What -- was it just that you were able to outspend them? Was there a particular channel dynamic? Can you just give us a little bit more on the case side of what happened that was quite successful there.

我這裡就先問幾個問題。首先，我們是否應該擔心未來幾季歐洲巧克力市場的發展？您能否大致估算一下，在目前這種人們不再經常外出的環境下，歐洲巧克力業務中有多少或多少比例與衝動型消費相關，而這類消費可能會受到衝擊？其次，您之前多次提到在中國市場份額的成長，並表示這或許可以作為您在其他新興市場取得成功的模式。競爭對手是否受到了某種影響？還是只是因為你們的投入超過了他們？是否存在某種特定的通路策略？您能否詳細談談你們在中國的成功案例？

Yes. Thank you. So chocolate is doing quite well. Globally, in the markets where we play, chocolate is growing at almost double digit. And where it grew mid-single-digit in '19. So chocolate is also benefiting. Now there are channels, like we mentioned, the world travel retail and some of the away-from-home channels, i.e., foodservice that are affected by this. But those channels are minor. So in Europe, for instance, 75% of our business is in the retail channel so benefiting from that growth.

是的，謝謝。巧克力業務表現相當不錯。在全球範圍內，在我們開展業務的市場中，巧克力業務的成長接近兩位數，而2019年的成長也達到了個位數中段。所以巧克力業務也從中受益。當然，正如我們之前提到的，全球旅遊零售通路和一些非家庭消費通路（例如餐飲服務）會受到一些影響。但這些管道的影響較小。例如，在歐洲，我們75%的業務都來自零售通路，因此也受惠於零售通路的成長。

A second data point is Easter. We were obviously quite worried about Easter. Easter is a big season for us. And the chocolate category performed quite well, again, in the markets where we play. And the growth in the last period, which is the Easter period, the growth was double digit for the category. And that takes into account the fact that Easter came earlier. So the Easter promotional period was shorter. You had the whole issue with the pandemic, which means less travel, less celebration with family and friends which is very important, the gifting is very important. And we had the supply chains, which were affected by this. Our teams did an excellent job to get ourselves in stores in strong ways and we delivered record share gains.

第二個數據點是復活節。我們顯然非常擔心復活節的銷售情況。復活節對我們來說是一個重要的銷售旺季。在我們經營業務的市場中，巧克力類別的表現依然相當出色。在上一季（即復活節期間），此品類實現了兩位數的成長。這其中也考慮到了復活節提前到來，導致復活節促銷期縮短。此外，疫情也帶來了許多問題，例如出行減少、與家人和朋友歡聚的時間減少（而送禮在復活節期間至關重要），供應鏈也受到了影響。我們的團隊出色地完成了工作，以強有力的方式將產品鋪入門店，並取得了創紀錄的市場份額成長。

So in the U.K., which is our largest Easter market, we gained over 4 points of share, and we now have more than 50%, 5-0 percent, of the Easter period. And even in Australia, where retail -- where we already have very high market share, we gained another 2.5 points during the Easter period. So Easter in the end, we started promoting a little bit earlier because we were worried that it might not sell out. But in the end, it did quite well. But because of that promotion, I would say, year-on-year, the Easter period itself, deducting the cost of promotion so is the same as last year, which is an exceptional performance taking into account all the factors that I've said.

因此，在英國——我們最大的復活節市場——我們的市佔率成長了超過4個百分點，目前已佔據復活節期間50%以上的市佔率。即使在澳洲——我們原本就擁有非常高的市佔率——復活節期間的市佔率也增加了2.5個百分點。所以，在復活節期間，我們提前開始促銷，因為我們擔心產品可能無法售罄。但最終，促銷效果相當不錯。正因為有了這些促銷活動，我認為，扣除促銷成本後，復活節期間的實際銷售額與去年持平，考慮到我剛才提到的所有因素，這已經是一個非常出色的成績了。

So we feel pretty good about chocolate. It's a strength. There are areas, as I said, that are minor that are affecting us, but we're still seeing quite solid growth as a company, taking into account even those 2 channels that we virtually are seeing no sales at the moment. So while where we are, it's growing 8%, sometimes double digit, for the company, it's growing close to about 3% if you deduct those channels that I was talking about. The reason why I think our chocolate is doing well is that we're largely in tablets, and tablets are more home consumption than on-the-go consumption. They are family consumption, they are sharing and those are all important in these circumstances. So I hope that gives you an idea on chocolate.

所以，我們對巧克力業務相當滿意。這是我們的優勢。正如我所說，有些方面確實對我們造成了一些影響，但即便考慮到目前幾乎沒有銷售的兩個管道，我們公司的整體成長依然相當穩健。因此，在我們目前的通路中，巧克力業務的成長率為8%，有時甚至達到兩位數；但如果剔除我剛才提到的那些管道，成長率則接近3%。我認為我們巧克力業務表現良好的原因在於，我們主要銷售的是片狀巧克力，而片狀巧克力更適合家庭消費，而非外出攜帶。它們是家庭消費，可以分享，在當前情況下，這些都非常重要。希望這些資訊能讓您對巧克力業務有所了解。

The second question, I must admit that I forgot the second question now, Alexia...

第二個問題，我必須承認，我現在忘記第二個問題了，艾莉克西亞…

China. It was the China...

中國。那是中國…

China. China, yes...

中國。中國，是的…

Yes. The competitors, what happened?

是的。競爭對手那邊發生了什麼事？

Yes. So the China situation, I think, is an effect of a number of things. First of all, our Chinese team took it upon themselves to say that they were not going to let this pandemic affect their performance for the year and that no matter what, they were going to deliver the year. And so they went into this with an incredible vengeance, and they were absolutely convinced that they could do whatever they needed to do. So we had situations where there was no delivery trucks where our people loaded the products in their own cars and drove themselves to the stores to deliver. And so the first element is an incredible drive and passion by our Chinese team to make this happen.

是的。我認為中國的情況是多種因素共同作用的結果。首先，我們的中國團隊主動承擔責任，表示絕不讓疫情影響他們今年的業績，無論如何都要完成今年的目標。他們以驚人的毅力投入工作，並且堅信自己能夠做到一切需要做的事情。因此，我們遇到了一些情況，例如沒有送貨卡車，我們的員工就把產品裝進自己的車裡，親自開車到門市送貨。所以，第一個關鍵因素是我們中國團隊展現出的驚人動力與熱情。

The second thing, which we see really around the world is that in these situations, consumers are going back to the brands they trust. They want to go to brands that have the image of being high quality, that they really sort of have a respect relationship with an Oreo, as an example, or Pacific have that for us in China. And so we see a shift of consumers abandoning the lesser-quality brands that they treat to be a little bit more suspicious -- suspicion shifting into the higher-quality brand, and there's a real shift in the Chinese market towards quality. So those, for me, are the 2 big reasons that we were able to win. In the last period, we gained 7 points of market share. So we do want to now keep on going on that momentum. I think the consumer is helping us. And we now need to follow up very quickly.

第二點，也是我們在全球範圍內普遍觀察到的，就是在這種情況下，消費者會回歸他們信任的品牌。他們傾向於選擇那些擁有高品質形象、讓他們真正尊重的品牌，例如奧利奧，或是像太平洋集團在中國。因此，我們看到消費者正在放棄那些他們持懷疑態度的低端品牌——這種懷疑轉向了更高品質的品牌，中國市場正在發生一場真正的向高品質的轉變。對我來說，這就是我們能夠成功的兩大關鍵因素。在上一階段，我們的市佔率成長了7個百分點。所以，我們希望保持這種勢頭。我認為消費者正在幫助我們。現在我們需要迅速跟進。

Gum is a little bit less. We're doing very well. We're also gaining quite some market share in gum, but that's a category which is more on-the-go consumption. And that in China, up to recently, were still quite affected. People do not -- did not go out that much. The Chinese team tells me that, that is changing quite rapidly. Restaurants are open again and so on. But gum is going a little bit slower. But there also, we see the same sort of gains that we are seeing in the biscuit market for us.

口香糖的銷量略低。我們整體表現非常出色。我們在口香糖市場也獲得了相當可觀的份額，但口香糖屬於外帶消費品類。而直到最近，中國市場仍然受到相當大的影響。人們外出活動不多。中國團隊告訴我，這種情況正在迅速改變。餐館已經重新開放等等。但口香糖的成長速度稍慢一些。不過，我們在口香糖市場也看到了與餅乾市場類似的成長動能。

I think that's it. Shep?

我想就是這樣了。謝普？

That is it.

就是這樣。

Okay. Well, thank you so much for taking some extra time. We went 1.5 hours. But in these circumstances, I think that is appropriate. I hope we were able to explain to you as much as we could, how we feel about the business, and what we are expecting. We, of course, would prefer to give you a bit more guidance, but it doesn't feel like it's prudent at this stage. There's too many variations at play. But we are convinced of one thing that we will do well seeing the circumstances, and we have a lot of strengths to build on. And we are convinced that we will come out of this much stronger and much better than before this crisis. Thank you, and talk to you later.

好的。非常感謝您抽出額外的時間。我們談了一個半小時​​。但考慮到目前的情況，我認為這是合適的。希望我們已經盡可能詳細地向您解釋了我們對公司業務的看法以及我們的預期。當然，我們很想給您更多指導，但在這個階段這樣做似乎並不明智。因為存在太多不確定因素。但我們確信，在當前情況下，我們會做得很好，而且我們有很多優勢可以繼續發展。我們相信，我們會比危機前更強大、更優秀地走出困境。謝謝，我們稍後再聊。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以掛斷電話了。