億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International Fourth Quarter 2019 Year-end Earnings Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加億滋國際2019年第四季及年終財報電話會議。

Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括億滋國際管理層的演講和問答環節。（操作說明）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Vice President, Investor Relations of Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想把電話交給億滋國際投資者關係副總裁謝普‧鄧拉普先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us.

下午好，感謝各位的參與。

With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides which are available on our website, mondelezinternational.com/investors.

今天陪同我的是我們的董事長兼執行長 Dirk Van de Put，以及我們的財務長 Luca Zaramella。今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿和演示文稿，這些內容可在我們的網站 mondelezinternational.com/investors 上找到。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K and 10-Q filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將對公司的績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些說法是基於我們今天看待事物的方式。由於風險和不確定因素，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳情，請參閱我們 10-K 和 10-Q 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。

As we discuss our results today, unless notes -- as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results. In addition, we provide our year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, unless otherwise noted. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

今天，當我們討論業績時，除非另有說明，否則我們將參考我們的非GAAP財務指標（如報告所示），這些指標會根據GAAP業績中包含的某些項目進行調整。此外，除非另有說明，否則我們提供的年成長率均以固定匯率計算。您可以在我們的獲利報告中以及投影片簡報的背面找到可比較的 GAAP 指標以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。

In today's call, Dirk will give you an overview of our results as well as the progress update against our strategic priorities. Then Luca will take you through the financials and our outlook. We'll close with Q&A.

在今天的電話會議中，Dirk 將向大家概述我們的業績以及我們在策略重點方面取得的進展。然後盧卡將帶你了解財務狀況和我們的展望。最後是問答環節。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Dirk.

接下來，我將把電話交給德克。

Thank you, Shep, and good afternoon, everybody. I will start off on Slide 4, called delivering long-term shareholder value creation.

謝謝你，謝普，大家下午好。我將從第 4 張投影片開始，標題是「創造長期股東價值」。

2019 was a great year for Mondelez International. It was the first full year under our new consumer-centric growth strategy, and we delivered strong results on the top and the bottom line while generating significant free cash flow. Our solid execution and targeted investments in both our global and local brands enabled us to meet or exceed all of our financial targets for the year. These results give us increasing conviction that our strategy will create sustained momentum in our business, allowing us to deliver on our long-term financial targets in the years to come.

2019年對億滋國際來說是碩果累累的一年。這是我們以消費者為中心的新成長策略實施的第一個完整年度，我們在營收和利潤方面都取得了強勁的業績，同時產生了可觀的自由現金流。我們憑藉著穩健的執行力和對全球及本地品牌的精準投資，實現了或超越了年度所有財務目標。這些結果讓我們越來越相信，我們的策略將為我們的業務帶來持續的發展勢頭，使我們能夠在未來幾年實現我們的長期財務目標。

Switching to Slide 5. Recapping the year, here are a few highlights. We delivered organic net revenue growth of 4.1%, which was broad-based across geographies and brands and was driven by both volume and pricing. In terms of geographies, emerging market growth was strong, growing mid-single digit ex Argentina and driven primarily by key geographies like China, Russia and India but also by emerging high-growth markets in Southeast Asia. Developed markets showed robust growth, with both Europe and North America performing well, delivering share gains and driving category growth. Overall, the results reflect the quality of our brand portfolio with our unique combination of both global and local brands, benefiting from increased and targeted investments throughout the year.

切換到第 5 張投影片。回顧這一年，以下是一些亮點。我們實現了 4.1% 的有機淨收入成長，這一成長遍及各個地區和品牌，並且是由銷售和價格的雙重推動的。從地理來看，新興市場成長強勁，除阿根廷外，成長率達到中等個位數，主要由中國、俄羅斯和印度等主要地區以及東南亞新興高成長市場推動。已開發市場呈現強勁成長，歐洲和北美市場表現良好，市場份額不斷擴大，推動了品類成長。總體而言，這些結果反映了我們品牌組合的質量，我們獨特地將全球品牌和本地品牌結合起來，並受益於全年不斷增加的有針對性的投資。

Our adjusted EPS growth was more than 8% for the year. And we are pleased with our full year free cash flow generation of about $3 billion, which was well ahead of our outlook.

我們全年的調整後每股盈餘成長率超過 8%。我們對全年自由現金流產生量約為 30 億美元感到滿意，這遠遠超出了我們的預期。

Switching to Slide 6. Our strategy is now well embedded in the business. In the past 12 months, we've made great strides in implementing it across the different business units. The rollout of the new strategy was reinforced by our new way of incentivizing our teams, assuring that everybody is clear on what is important. At its core, we are constantly trying to be more consumer centric, using our new and unique understanding of consumers around the world to develop a more effective and a more consistent approach to marketing. And as a consequence, growth in our global brands has accelerated further while our local brand growth is now very close to overall category growth. We've also invested in further growth in non-grocery channels like discounters, e-commerce and convenience as well as in expanding our distribution in fast-growing developing markets like China, India and Russia.

切換到第6張投影片。我們的策略現在已經很好地融入業務中。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們在各個業務部門的實施方面取得了長足的進步。新策略的推出得益於我們激勵團隊的新方式，確保每個人都清楚什麼是重要的。從本質上講，我們不斷努力做到以消費者為中心，利用我們對世界各地消費者的全新獨特理解，制定更有效、更一致的行銷方法。因此，我們的全球品牌成長速度進一步加快，而我們的本地品牌成長速度現在已非常接近整個品類的成長速度。我們也投資於非食品雜貨通路（如折扣店、電子商務和便利商店）的進一步成長，並擴大了我們在中國、印度和俄羅斯等快速成長的發展中市場的分銷。

As it relates to innovation, we are becoming more agile and faster, trying many new ideas, and in fact, rolling out fewer initiatives but with bigger success. We are clear too that strategy only succeeds with outstanding execution. And while we still have a long way to go, I credit a big part of our results to better execution in our commercial as well as our supply chain operations. North America supply chain in 2019 definitely showed significant improvement. Our European teams executed against the seasonal opportunity like Easter and Christmas better than in recent years. And our teams in India and China reached the highest level of execution in store as well as in the plants. However, the opportunity to constantly improve our execution remains significant as our recent struggles with our supply chain in Brazil would indicate.

在創新方面，我們變得更加靈活、更加迅速，嘗試了許多新想法，實際上，我們推出的舉措雖然數量較少，但取得了更大的成功。我們也清楚地認識到，戰略只有透過出色的執行才能取得成功。雖然我們還有很長的路要走，但我認為我們取得的成績很大程度上要歸功於我們在商業營運和供應鏈營運方面執行力的提升。2019年北美供應鏈確實有了顯著改善。我們的歐洲團隊在掌握復活節和聖誕節等季節性機會方面，比往年做得更好。我們在印度和中國的團隊在門市和工廠的執行力方面都達到了最高水準。然而，正如我們最近在巴西供應鏈方面遇到的困難所表明的那樣，我們仍有很大的提升執行力的機會。

As it relates to our operating costs, while we are, in the first place, trying to leverage volume growth to a lower delivered cost per ton, we still see significant opportunity to optimize many other cost areas.

就我們的營運成本而言，雖然我們首先是試圖利用銷售成長來降低每噸交付成本，但我們仍然看到在許多其他成本領域進行最佳化的巨大機會。

While more and better marketing as well as strongly improved execution have driven our 2019 results, a shift in mindset around the company also has had an important impact. The most important part of this shift was driven by our local-first approach, basically empowering local business units to make the right choices for their consumers and their clients. This empowerment has led to clearer accountability and faster decision-making and was reinforced by focused incentives. I am proud of how the teams have embraced this new culture and really believe that this model has great potential for the future.

雖然更多更好的行銷以及執行力的大幅提升推動了我們 2019 年的業績，但公司思維方式的轉變也產生了重要影響。這項轉變最重要的部分是由我們「本地優先」的方針推動的，基本上賦予本地業務部門權力，讓他們能夠為消費者和客戶做出正確的選擇。這種授權帶來了更清晰的問責機制和更快的決策速度，並透過有針對性的激勵措施得到了強化。我為各團隊接受這種新文化的方式感到自豪，並且真心相信這種模式在未來具有巨大的潛力。

While we are talking about culture, I'd also like to mention a change in the leadership of our Latin American region. We are announcing today that Gustavo Valle will join us as region President, Latin America, effective February 1. Gustavo comes from Danone, where he's held numerous positions around the globe. In his last role, he was leading the global dairy and plant-based division. Earlier in his career, he managed the Argentine and Brazilian business and brings with him significant experience in the volatile economies of Latin America. I look forward to working with Gustavo again.

說到文化，我還想提一下我們拉丁美洲地區領導階層的更迭。我們今天宣布，古斯塔沃·瓦列將於2月1日起擔任拉丁美洲地區總裁。古斯塔沃先前在達能公司工作，曾擔任全球多個職位。在他擔任的最後一個職位上，他領導全球乳製品和植物性食品部門。在他職業生涯早期，他曾管理阿根廷和巴西的業務，並積累了豐富的拉丁美洲動盪經濟經驗。我期待再次與古斯塔沃合作。

Switching to Slide 7. While we are excited about our financial results and prospects, in today's world, any consumer business needs to have as strong a social and environmental agenda as a financial agenda. Our own employees as well as our consumers demand it and customers, investors and other stakeholders expect it. So I'm happy to say that in 2019, we have made great progress in embedding our purpose to empower people to snack right. We announced a new sustainable snacking strategy with new goals and stronger commitments.

切換到第 7 張投影片。雖然我們對財務表現和前景感到興奮，但在當今世界，任何消費品企業都需要像重視財務目標一樣重視社會和環境目標。我們自己的員工和消費者都要求這樣做，客戶、投資者和其他利害關係人也期望這樣做。因此，我很高興地說，在 2019 年，我們在實現我們的宗旨——賦能人們健康吃零食——方面取得了巨大進展。我們發布了一項新的永續零食策略，提出了新的目標和更強有力的承諾。

In cocoa, our biggest commodity, we are committing to sourcing the equivalent of 100% of the cocoa we need for our chocolate brands through our Cocoa Life program by 2025. Today, I'm proud to share that we've achieved 63% by the end of 2019, an increase from 43% in 2018 and with a clear road map for the remainder.

可可是我們最大的商品，我們承諾到 2025 年透過我們的「可可生活」計畫採購相當於我們巧克力品牌所需可可的 100%。今天，我很自豪地宣布，截至 2019 年底，我們已完成 63% 的目標，比 2018 年的 43% 有所提高，並且我們已經制定了剩餘目標的明確路線圖。

Earlier this year, we joined other major companies in renewing our commitment to the Paris Climate Accord and have set our path towards further reduction in carbon emissions.

今年早些時候，我們與其他主要公司一起重申了對《巴黎氣候協定》的承諾，並制定了進一步減少碳排放的路線圖。

Looking towards the consumer, we're focused on making the packaging for all our products 100% recyclable by 2025. And by the end of 2019, we are already at 92% with some interesting trials underway to unlock the remaining 8% of that journey.

從消費者角度出發，我們致力於在 2025 年實現所有產品包裝 100% 可回收。到 2019 年底，我們已經完成了 92%，目前正在進行一些有趣的試驗，以解鎖剩餘的 8% 的旅程。

Finally, as it relates to the mindful enjoyment of our products, we are committed to increasing our mix of portion-control packs to 20% of our total revenues. We are well underway with 15% already sold in such formats.

最後，為了讓消費者更安心地享受我們的產品，我們致力於將份量控制包裝的產品佔總收入的比例提高到 20%。目前進展順利，此類產品的銷售量已達 15%。

We know that our future growth and success as a company depends on ensuring people and planet thrive, and we are committed to tracking and reporting on our progress and impact transparently along the way. I look forward to sharing more with you in 2020.

我們知道，公司的未來發展和成功取決於確保人類和地球繁榮發展，我們致力於在此過程中透明地追蹤和報告我們的進展和影響。我期待在2020年與大家分享更多。

And with that, I will hand it over to Luca.

然後，我就把它交給盧卡了。

Thank you, Dirk, and good afternoon.

謝謝你，德克，下午好。

On Slide 9 is our financial performance for both quarter 4 and full year. We ended 2019 strongly, continuing the momentum we have created since the beginning of our new strategic plan. This is the case as it relates to organic top line growth. That translated into earnings growth and free cash flow. We believe these outcomes to be high-quality. Revenue growth was broad-based by region, global and local brands and in terms of developed and emerging markets. As a matter of fact, 12 out of the 13 business units delivered growth in 2019.

第 9 頁是我們第四季和全年的財務表現。2019 年末，我們取得了強勁的成績，延續了自新戰略計畫啟動以來所取得的良好勢頭。就有機營收成長而言，情況確實如此。這轉化為獲利成長和自由現金流。我們認為這些結果品質很高。收入成長在各個地區、全球品牌和本地品牌以及已開發市場和新興市場之間均實現了廣泛成長。事實上，13 個業務部門中有 12 個在 2019 年實現了成長。

Importantly, there was a good balance of volume and pricing, both of which are important. Volume, allowing us to leverage the great infrastructure we have created with much work over the last few years; and pricing, to drive value. This balance results in top line drove attractive profit dollar growth while enabling reinvestment in our brands.

重要的是，銷售量和價格達到了良好的平衡，這兩點都很重要。銷售量，使我們能夠利用過去幾年辛勤工作創建的強大基礎設施；以及定價，以創造價值。這種平衡帶來了可觀的營收成長和利潤成長，同時使我們能夠對品牌進行再投資。

In Q4 and throughout 2019, we also made significant investments in areas like Europe and AMEA to further support our brands and broader growth initiatives as well as in the biscuits category in North America and certain markets in Latin America. These investments were in line with our original plan and a bit higher in certain areas and delivered on expected returns and share gains.

2019 年第四季及全年，我們也在歐洲和 AMEA 等地區進行了大量投資，以進一步支持我們的品牌和更廣泛的成長計劃，以及在北美和拉丁美洲某些市場的餅乾類別。這些投資符合我們最初的計劃，在某些領域甚至略有增加，並且實現了預期的回報和市場份額成長。

Turning to Slide 10. Overall, we grew 4.1% in both Q4 and in 2019. We delivered strong volume and pricing-led growth in virtually all key emerging markets like China, India, Southeast Asia, Russia, Mexico and Africa. In aggregate, emerging markets grew approximately 8% for both the year and the quarter. Excluding inflation-driven growth in Argentina, emerging markets grew 6% for the year. These results support our conviction that our emerging market footprint is a competitive advantage and the investments we have been making in '19 and previous years are paying off.

翻到第10張投影片。總體而言，我們在第四季度和 2019 年都實現了 4.1% 的成長。我們在幾乎所有主要新興市場（如中國、印度、東南亞、俄羅斯、墨西哥和非洲）都實現了強勁的銷售和價格驅動型成長。總體而言，新興市場全年和本季均成長了約 8%。剔除阿根廷通膨驅動的成長，新興市場全年成長6%。這些結果印證了我們的信念，即我們在新興市場的佈局是一項競爭優勢，我們在 2019 年及以前幾年進行的投資正在獲得回報。

Developed markets also delivered solid results for the year and quarter, with revenue growth of approximately 2%, driven by improved results out of both Europe and North America with share gains in both regions. As we said in previous calls, particularly in Europe, these results were aided by a longer Easter season and the milder summer than 2018.

已開發市場本年度和本季也取得了穩健的業績，營收成長約 2%，這主要得益於歐洲和北美地區業績的改善以及這兩個地區市場份額的提升。正如我們在先前的電話會議中所說，尤其是在歐洲，這些結果得益於復活節假期延長以及夏季氣溫比 2018 年更溫和。

Now let's review our profitability performance on Slide 11. We increased gross profit by 4% for the full year and 4.4% in Q4. This gross profit dollar increase enabled a step-up in growth investments focused on working media and route-to-market capabilities. We also drove solid to high dollar improvement with volume leverage, pricing and cost savings, partially offset by growth investments.

現在讓我們回顧一下第 11 張投影片上的獲利能力表現。全年毛利成長 4%，第四季毛利成長 4.4%。毛利的成長使得公司能夠加大對媒體和市場通路能力等方面的成長投資。我們也透過銷售槓桿、定價和成本節約實現了穩健且高額的利潤成長，但部分被成長投資所抵銷。

Moving to regional performance on Slide 12 for the full year. Europe executed very well for the year with 3.7% revenue growth. These results include strong volume-driven growth in developed markets such as the U.K. and Germany, which grew mid-single digit as well as Russia, which posted double-digit growth for the full year behind strong volumes and share gains. We delivered consistent execution in chocolate and seasonals throughout the year. And the strong execution resulted both in share gains, particularly in our chocolate business, and good category growth. Adjusted OI dollars grew by almost 6% in spite of significant investments in areas like A&C. EU shows the full potential of our model as we drove solid volume-driven market growth, gain share and deliver strong gross profit progression that allowed for A&C step-up.

第 12 頁投影片展示了全年的區域業績。歐洲市場今年表現非常出色，營收成長了3.7%。這些業績包括英國和德國等已開發市場強勁的銷售驅動成長（實現中等個位數成長），以及俄羅斯全年兩位數成長（得益於強勁的銷售和市場份額成長）。我們全年都保持了巧克力和時令產品的穩定品質。強而有力的執行帶來了市場份額的成長，尤其是在巧克力業務方面，以及良好的品類成長。儘管在建築和建築等領域進行了大量投資，但調整後的營業收入仍增加了近 6%。歐盟市場充分展現了我們模式的潛力，我們實現了穩健的銷售驅動型市場成長，獲得了市場份額，並實現了強勁的毛利成長，從而為A&C的升級提供了可能。

AMEA grew 5.3%, showing continued strength across much of the region. India grew double digits behind another year of strong execution and investment. We continue to help drive the chocolate market while making progress against our plans of building a larger biscuit platform. China grew high single digits for the year, driven by strength in both biscuits and gum and great execution in both e-commerce as well as the off-line channels. Southeast Asia grew mid-single digits with solid results in biscuits and chocolate.

AMEA地區成長5.3%，顯示該地區大部分地區持續走強。在強勁的執行力和投資的推動下，印度經濟連續第二年實現了兩位數成長。我們繼續推動巧克力市場的發展，同時在建立更大的餅乾平台方面也取得了進展。中國市場全年實現了接近兩位數的成長，這主要得益於餅乾和口香糖市場的強勁表現，以及電子商務和線下通路的出色執行。東南亞市場實現了中等個位數的成長，其中餅乾和巧克力表現穩健。

AMEA increased operating income dollars by more than 9% due to leverage from top line growth. This growth comes despite some significant investments in A&C and route to market. The limited OI growth in Q4 is entirely due to additional investments in A&C, and those were enabled by continued strong gross profit growth that we saw throughout the whole year. Again, our algorithm is working quite well in this region.

由於營收成長帶來的槓桿效應，AMEA 的營業收入成長超過 9%。儘管在航空航太和市場通路方面進行了大量投資，但仍實現了成長。第四季營業收入成長有限，完全是由於對A&C的額外投資，而這些投資得益於我們全年持續強勁的毛利成長。再次證明，我們的演算法在這個地區運作良好。

Latin America grew 7.8%, due primarily to inflation driven growth in Argentina. Revenue increased 1.7%, excluding Argentina. Mexico grew mid-single digits, driven by strong execution and share growth across most categories. In Brazil, we saw a slight decline in revenue driven primarily by a reduction of trade stocks in powder beverages, partially offset by lapping the general trucker strike in '18. We are beginning to take actions in this category, including the launch of new marketing communications and product formulations.

拉丁美洲經濟成長7.8%，主要原因是阿根廷的通貨膨脹推動了經濟成長。不計阿根廷，營收成長1.7%。墨西哥實現了中等個位數的成長，這得益於強勁的執行力和大多數品類的市佔率成長。在巴西，由於粉末飲料貿易庫存減少，收入略有下降，但部分被 2018 年卡車司機大罷工的影響所抵消。我們已開始採取這方面的行動，包括推出新的行銷傳播和產品配方。

Adjusted OI dollars in Latin America declined by approximately 6%, primarily due to volume losses in powder beverages in Brazil along with some remaining supply chain costs from our planned transition. We do not expect material planned transition costs to continue in 2020. For the quarter, the significant growth in OI is due to lapping some one-timers related to Forex contracts settling last year and some legal cases.

拉丁美洲經調整後的營業收入下降了約 6%，主要原因是巴西粉狀飲料銷量下降，以及我們計劃轉型帶來的一些剩餘供應鏈成本。我們預計2020年不會出現計畫內的重大轉型成本。本季未平倉合約的顯著增長是由於去年結算的一些外匯合約和一些法律案件的一次性交易被結算所致。

While we are reassured by the solidity of the business in Mexico and the Western Andean region and dealing well with the volatility of Argentina, we recognize there is more work to do in Brazil, and the focus of Gustavo and team will be mostly on that.

雖然我們對墨西哥和安第斯西部地區的業務穩健以及應對阿根廷市場波動的情況感到放心，但我們也意​​識到在巴西還有更多的工作要做，古斯塔沃和他的團隊將主要專注於此。

Finally, North America grew 2.2% for the full year and more than 3% in Q4, driven by improved volumes. We closed the year well and deliver strong share results in biscuit with growth in a number of key brands, including Oreo, Ritz and belVita. We continue to make investments in A&C and we are seeing our brands respond favorably, mainly when coupled with our excellent DSD execution.

最後，北美全年成長 2.2%，第四季成長超過 3%，這主要得益於銷量的提升。我們以良好的業績結束了這一年，並在餅乾業務中取得了強勁的市場份額增長，包括奧利奧、麗滋和焙朗等多個主要品牌。我們持續對A&C進行投資，並且我們看到我們的品牌做出了積極的回應，尤其是在我們出色的DSD執行力加持下。

The North American region grew OI by more than 6% for the year due to leverage, effective pricing and waste reduction, with additional A&C mostly in our biscuits brands. North America had strong gross profit delivery throughout the year, and Q4 was no exception to that. But again, levels of A&C stepped up in Q4.

由於槓桿作用、有效的定價和減少浪費，北美地區的營業收入年增超過 6%，此外，我們的餅乾品牌還獲得了額外的 A&C 收益。北美地區全年毛利表現強勁，第四季也不例外。但第四季 A&C 水準再次上升。

Turning to category highlights. Our 3 snacking categories continue to demonstrate attractive growth with total category growth of 3.6% for the year. We did see a more normalized growth in our categories for Q4 at 2.8% as some of the tailwinds that helped Q2 and Q3, a longer Easter in Q2 and a milder summer in both Q2 and Q3 subsided in the last part of the year. However, we remain encouraged by the health of our categories and believe they can continue to sustain growth of around 3% over the long term. And this is what our long-term algorithm is predicated upon.

接下來是各類別亮點。我們的三大零食品類持續保持良好的成長動能，全年品類總成長率達 3.6%。我們看到，第四季度各類別的成長更加正常化，達到 2.8%，因為第二季和第三季的一些利多因素（例如第二季復活節假期較長以及第二季和第三季夏季氣溫較為溫和）在今年下半年有所減弱。然而，我們對各品類的健康狀況感到鼓舞，並相信它們能夠長期維持約 3% 的成長。這就是我們長期演算法的基礎。

There are a number of very significant areas where we helped drive the category growth in 2019. Among those, U.S. biscuit, where we continued to execute better on marketing and execution at point of sales and where we drove both value and volume growth through DSD; U.K., India and Russia chocolate, where our renewed marketing bundles on both global and local brands, coupled with sales excellence, drove substantial value for the category.

2019 年，我們在多個非常重要的領域幫助推動了品類成長。其中，美國餅乾市場，我們繼續在銷售點的營銷和執行方面做得更好，並通過直接送貨上門 (DSD) 推動了價值和銷量的增長；英國、印度和俄羅斯巧克力市場，我們對全球和本地品牌的全新營銷組合，加上卓越的銷售業績，為該品類帶來了巨大的價值。

Overall, we held or gained share in 75% of our business in '19, which reflects the progress on our broader strategy of volume and share improvement. Overall, our share were up for the year in aggregate, ending several years of share losses, and we ended the year on an improved trajectory.

總體而言，我們在 2019 年保持或提高了 75% 的業務份額，這反映了我們在提高銷量和份額方面的更廣泛策略取得了進展。總體而言，我們全年的市場份額有所增長，結束了連續幾年的市場份額下滑，並且我們以更好的發展勢頭結束了這一年。

By category, our biscuits business grew 4.4%. Approximately 75% of our revenue grew or held share in this category, including our U.S., China, Russia and India businesses. In chocolate, our business grew 5.8%. Approximately 85% of our revenue grew or held share, including the U.K., Australia and Russia. Gum and candy revenue grew slightly. About 35% of our revenue in this business gained or held share, including strength in China and France, gum; and Russia, candy.

按類別劃分，我們的餅乾業務成長了 4.4%。約 75% 的收入來自該類別，包括我們在美國、中國、俄羅斯和印度的業務，這些收入實現了成長或維持了市場份額。在巧克力業務方面，我們的業務成長了 5.8%。約 85% 的收入實現了成長或維持了市場份額，其中包括英國、澳洲和俄羅斯。口香糖和糖果的收入略有成長。該業務中約 35% 的收入實現了市場份額的成長或保持，其中包括在中國和法國的口香糖業務以及在俄羅斯的糖果業務。

Now turning to EPS on Slide 18. Full year EPS grew more than 8%. This growth primarily reflected operating gains driven by strong revenue results, income from JV equity stakes despite some tax headwinds in Q4, and lower-than-expected interest expense driven by accelerated cash flow, focused balance sheet management and favorable rate environment.

現在來看看第 18 張投影片中的 EPS 部分。全年每股收益成長超過 8%。這一成長主要反映了強勁的收入業績帶來的營運收益、儘管第四季度面臨一些稅收不利因素，但合資企業股權收入仍然帶來了收益，以及由於現金流加速、資產負債表管理集中和利率環境有利而導致的低於預期的利息支出。

I'll now move on to our free cash flow results on Slide 19. We delivered full year free cash flow of $3 billion, which was above our outlook and the nearly $200 million improvement over last year due to strong income, continued progress in our cash conversion cycle as well as lower cash restructuring and CapEx.

接下來，我將在第 19 頁介紹我們的自由現金流結果。我們全年自由現金流達到 30 億美元，高於預期，比去年增加了近 2 億美元，這得益於強勁的收入、現金轉換週期的持續進展以及現金重組和資本支出的減少。

On Page 20, we returned $3 billion to our shareholders for the full year. This brings us to more than $24 billion in capital return since Mondelez was formed.

第 20 頁，我們向股東返還了全年 30 億美元。自億滋國際成立以來，該公司已累計獲得超過 240 億美元的資本回報。

Now let me provide some details around our outlook for 2020. At a high level, we expect our own algorithm here for 2020 in terms of our financial outlook. We expect organic net revenue growth of 3% plus. This is predicated on our view of category growth of approximately 3%, some share gains and revenue growth driven by both volume and pricing. We expect adjusted EPS in the high single-digit range. This outlook implies continued growth of gross profit dollars and volume leverage. It also reflects another step-up in investment levels, primarily in A&C and sales capabilities, to continue to support sustainable and high-quality growth as well as some cost savings to fund incremental investments.

現在讓我詳細介紹一下我們對 2020 年的展望。從宏觀層面來看，我們預計 2020 年我們將採用自己的演算法來預測財務前景。我們預計有機淨收入成長將達到3%以上。這是基於我們對品類成長約 3% 的預期，以及市場佔有率的成長和由銷售和價格共同推動的營收成長。我們預計調整後每股收益將達到高個位數。這一前景意味著毛利和銷售將持續成長。這也反映出投資水準的進一步提高，主要體現在A&C和銷售能力方面，以繼續支持可持續的高品質成長，並節省一些成本以資助增量投資。

With respect to free cash flow, we are expecting approximately $3 billion. Recall, this outlook includes additional cash tax impact resulting from the U.S. tax reform. In this outlook, we also expect our 2020 adjusted effective tax rate to be in the low to mid-20s, and interest expense of approximately $380 million.

自由現金流方面，我們預計約為 30 億美元。請注意，此展望包括美國稅制改革帶來的額外現金稅收影響。在這種展望下，我們也預期 2020 年調整後的實際稅率將在 20% 左右，利息支出約為 3.8 億美元。

Although we do not provide a quarterly outlook on the key metrics, it is important to note that the following items in terms of phasing will impact 2020. Both Easter and Chinese New Year fall earlier this year when compared to 2019. In terms of year-over-year comparisons, our commodity pipeline is relatively more unfavorable in the first part of the year versus the second part of the year, especially in the first quarter, and we have covered most of the key commodities for 2020. We also feel good about overall levels of pricing in the plan.

雖然我們不提供關鍵指標的季度展望，但值得注意的是，以下事項在分階段實施方面將對 2020 年產生影響。今年的復活節和中國新年都比 2019 年提早了。從年比來看，我們今年上半年的商品供應情況相對不利於下半年，尤其是第一季度，但我們已經涵蓋了 2020 年的大部分主要商品。我們對該計劃的整體定價水準也感到滿意。

With that, let's open the line for questions.

接下來，我們開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) So we'll take our first question from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

（操作員說明）那麼，我們首先來聽聽來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾提出的第一個問題。

Just 2 for me. First, I'd say, obviously, Mondelez had a much-stronger-than-initially-planned 2019, especially on organic sales growth. The company is looking for 3% plus in 2020, which is the long-term algorithm, as you said. There's obviously a deceleration from the 4% plus you showed in 2019. I was hoping you could talk a bit to this in terms of where or whether you're building in some conservatism there or if there's really something more specific behind it, whether it's, as you said, lapping a longer Easter and a hotter summer and things of that nature. And then I've got a follow-up.

我只要2個。首先，很顯然，億滋國際在 2019 年的業績遠超預期，尤其是在有機銷售成長方面。正如你所說，該公司尋求在 2020 年實現 3% 以上的成長，這是長期演算法。顯然，增速已經從 2019 年的 4% 以上放緩了。我希望你能談談這方面，例如你是否在其中融入了一些保守主義，或者背後是否有更具體的原因，例如像你所說的，復活節假期更長、夏季更熱等等。然後我還有一個後續問題。

Okay. Yes, I think '19 was a good year for us. We've just went through the numbers. Not only because of the numbers, but I think also that it was sort of the first confirmation that our strategy is working. This was the first year -- full year with the new strategy for us. We saw a number of signs that we think will continue next year, like the volume growth, like solid gross profit and OI dollar growth, market share gains, continued cost discipline. It was, as you alluded, helped by a later Easter season, which gives us more time in-store and also that we lapped the very hot summer of 2018 in Europe in '19. So we can see now the markets in the last quarter -- or the categories were more at 2.8%, not around the 4% that they were in the middle of the year.

好的。是的，我認為2019年對我們來說是好年。我們剛剛核對了數據。不僅是因為數據，而且我認為這也是我們的策略奏效的第一個證明。這是我們實施新策略的第一年——整整一年。我們看到了一些跡象，我們認為這些跡象將在明年繼續保持，例如銷售成長、穩健的毛利和營業收入美元成長、市場份額提升以及持續的成本控制。正如你所暗示的，復活節假期推遲了，這給了我們更多的時間在商店裡，這也有助於我們取得成功；此外，我們也避開了 2018 年歐洲非常炎熱的夏天（2019 年）。所以我們現在可以看到，上個季度的市場——或者說各個類別的成長率更接近 2.8%，而不是年中時的 4% 左右。

I think the unlock that we have, we will continue to work those, put the consumer first, keep on focusing on our execution and keep on increasing our investments and keep on improving our marketing, activating our local brands. So all that will continue next year. And also, what we have done as it relates to responsibilities and goals and better alignment of our incentives, we're making a few more tweaks this year. And we have a number of issues that we need to solve in the first place, Brazil supply chain, which is going better. But also we have to pay attention to China, for instance.

我認為，我們將繼續利用現有的資源，把消費者放在首位，繼續專注於執行，繼續增加投資，繼續改善行銷，並激活我們的本土品牌。所以這一切明年還會繼續。此外，在職責、目標以及激勵機制的更好地協調方面，我們今年也將進行一些調整。首先，我們需要解決一些問題，像是巴西的供應鏈，目前情況正在改善。但我們也必須關注中國，例如。

So all that, for us, we are saying the markets or the categories, we think, will be around 3%. We see ourselves increasing our market share, and so we call it a 3% plus, in line with our long-term algorithm. And in the beginning of the year, we are always very thoughtful as we set our targets. And we'll see how the first quarter goes, but at this stage, we feel that it's certainly not, in our book, a slowdown from this year. We continue as we are. But we do believe that the categories will be a little bit less than they were last year because of the reasons that I said.

所以，對我們來說，我們認為市場或類別的佔比將在 3% 左右。我們看到市場份額不斷增長，因此我們稱之為 3% 以上，這符合我們的長期策略。每年年初，我們在設定目標時總是深思熟慮。我們會看看第一季的情況如何，但就目前而言，我們認為這絕對不是今年以來的成長放緩。我們維持現狀。但我們相信，由於我剛才所說的原因，今年的獎項類別會比去年略少一些。

I think apart from the 2 watchouts that I mentioned, we see nothing at this stage that would particularly preoccupy us for the start of the year. So overall, I would say for us, it's continue the strategy as we are. Yes, the numbers are a little bit less than they were in '19, but that was largely driven by the structure of how things came about in '19, and '20 is a continuation of where we are.

我認為，除了我提到的兩個需要注意的問題之外，目前來看，年初沒有什麼特別值得我們擔憂的事情。所以總的來說，我認為我們將繼續執行目前的策略。是的，數字比 2019 年略有下降，但這主要是由於 2019 年的情況所致，而 2020 年的情況是我們現在所處位置的延續。

Our next question is from Bryan Spillane with BOA.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭。

So I guess, I wanted to pick up just on the expectation for incremental investment for 2020. So maybe just a couple of points around that. First, if you can kind of maybe size what the incremental investment in '20 would be relative to what it was in 2019. And then, I guess, as we're thinking about the sources of that, would we -- would it sort of suggest that you'd have gross profit dollar growth growing faster than operating profit growth because there's going to be some incremental investment in A&C? Or am I not thinking about that correctly?

所以我想重點談談對 2020 年增量投資的預期。所以，或許就圍繞這一點提出幾點看法。首先，如果您能大致估算一下 2020 年的增量投資相對於 2019 年的投資金額是多少就好了。然後，我想，當我們思考其來源時，這是否意味著毛利美元成長速度會快於營業利潤成長速度，因為A&C將有一些增量投資？還是我的想法有誤？

No, I think you're -- well, it's -- you're thinking about it correctly, but let me start from the start. So in '19, our extra investment was about $150 million, largely focused on more A&C, route to market as R&D. And we are going to be in the same ballpark in 2020 as extra investment.

不，我認為你——嗯，是——你的想法是對的，但讓我從頭開始說起。因此，在 2019 年，我們的額外投資約為 1.5 億美元，主要集中在更多的航空航太和通訊、市場推廣以及研發方面。2020年，我們將在同樣的範圍內增加投資。

In '19, we had planned that extra investment would have an impact on earnings. I don't know if you remember, we said we would be sort of around mid-single-digit earnings, but then during the year our sales came in better as expected. We generated more gross profit. And in the end, we were ending the year on an 8% EPS increase. However, we had Brazil that affected us in a way. And in fact, our gross profit could have grown more, and we would have hoped to invest more in '19.

2019年，我們曾經規劃額外的投資會對收益產生影響。我不知道你是否還記得，我們​​當時說過我們的盈利大概會在個位數的中段水平，但實際上，這一年我們的銷售額比預期要好。我們獲得了更高的毛利。最終，我們實現了全年每股收益成長 8%。然而，巴西的情況對我們產生了一定的影響。事實上，我們的毛利本來可以成長更多，我們也希望在 2019 年進行更多投資。

So in '20, the extra gross profit that we are adding is slightly higher than we did in '19 in dollars. And we're flowing, let's say, 40% of that roughly into A&C and in the other investment areas. So it's similar to what it was last year, but we don't have the negative effect of Brazil, and that's why we can continue with that algorithm and deliver high single-digit EPS growth.

因此，2020 年我們新增的毛利（以美元計）略高於 2019 年。假設我們將其中約 40% 的資金投入建築與建築業以及其他投資領域。所以情況和去年類似，但我們沒有巴西的負面影響，這就是為什麼我們可以繼續使用該演算法並實現高個位數的每股盈餘成長。

That's helpful. And then just in terms of where geographically the spend is going to be, could you just maybe give us a little bit of color on kind of maybe where you emphasized the extra spend in '19? And kind of where the incremental piece is going in '20? And I'll leave it there.

那很有幫助。那麼，就支出在地域上的分佈而言，您能否簡要介紹一下您在 2019 年重點增加支出的地區？那麼，2020 年的漸進式發展方向是什麼呢？我就說到這裡吧。

Yes. It goes largely to -- first of all, the 2 sources or the 2 destinations of the money is, one, in extra marketing media investment. To be very specific, it's all in media. And the second part is in distribution expansion. So the extra media investment is a little bit across the board. In most countries, it's different, the level that we do that, but the idea is to continue increasing our media pressure. As it relates to the route to market, that is more concentrated in the emerging markets, the Indias, the Chinas, the Russias, where we still have a huge opportunity to increase our distribution.

是的。首先，資金主要有兩個來源或兩個去向，一是額外的行銷媒體投資。更確切地說，這一切都與媒體有關。第二部分是分銷通路的拓展。因此，額外的媒體投入幾乎是全方位的。在大多數國家，我們採取這種做法的程度有所不同，但我們的想法是繼續增加媒體壓力。就市場通路而言，我們的業務更集中在新興市場，如印度、中國、俄羅斯，在這些市場仍有巨大的機會擴大分銷管道。

I would also like to add that as it relates to those media investments, not only are we increasing the overall spend on A&C, but within that A&C, we are shifting more into media. So we're increasing our working media spend largely through digital. And then also, we constantly are trying to increase our ROI, which increased about 12% in '19 on our media spend. So -- and on top of that, we have restructured our agency, so we also think that our nonmedia spend will have higher efficiency and higher quality.

我還想補充一點，關於這些媒體投資，我們不僅增加了廣告和傳播方面的整體支出，而且在廣告和傳播方面，我們也在更多地轉向媒體領域。因此，我們正在增加工作媒體方面的支出，而且主要的增加是數位媒體方面的支出。此外，我們也持續努力提高投資報酬率，2019 年我們在媒體支出的投資報酬率提高了約 12%。因此——除此之外，我們也重組了我們的代理商，所以我們也認為我們的非媒體支出將具有更高的效率和更高的品質。

So all that together, we have the effect of the higher investment, but also that reshifting which has a pretty big effect on our media pressure. So that's a little bit how it all comes together.

因此，所有這些因素加在一起，既帶來了更高的投資，也帶來了這種重新調整，這對我們的媒體壓力產生了相當大的影響。這就是事情大致的來龍去脈。

We'll take our next question from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將回答摩根士丹利的達拉‧莫森尼安提出的問題。

Obviously, some pretty strong results in terms of organic sales growth in 2019, but within that, we saw a really solid acceleration in volume growth. So I'd love to hear a bit of a state of the union now that the full year results are in on what drove that, in your mind, how sustainable that volume pickup is going forward? You mentioned both volume mix and pricing will be up next year. Is one a bigger driver of that organic sales growth than the other?

顯然，2019 年有機銷售成長取得了相當強勁的成績，但其中，銷售成長也出現了非常穩健的加速。現在全年業績已經出爐，我很想聽聽您對業績成長的展望，您認為是什麼因素推動了銷量的成長，以及這種成長勢頭在未來能否持續？您提到明年銷售佔比和價格都會上漲。哪一個對有機銷售成長的推動作用較大？

And then secondly, on Brazil, have the supply chain issues, are those now been resolved and they're behind you? And maybe just give us a little more of an update on how you're managing the powdered beverage business and if we should expect sequential improvement in the first half of the year versus the back half of last year, if those strategies take longer to play out?

其次，關於巴西，供應鏈問題現在是否已經解決，是否已經過去了？或許可以再給我們介紹一下您是如何管理粉末飲料業務的，以及如果這些策略需要更長時間才能見效，我們是否應該預期今年上半年業績會比去年下半年有所改善？

Okay. I'll start and maybe Dirk would cover a little bit Brazil.

好的。我先開始，也許德克會講一點巴西的內容。

So as to volume, clearly, we like what we are seeing. We like that the top line growth is coming mostly through a good balance of both volume and pricing. We believe that balance is quite important because it allows us to create value in the marketplace, but at the same time, to have the leverage that we need for our algorithm to really fully work. It is pretty much across the board. Maybe looking at the numbers, you might say it is a little bit less in emerging markets. But when you strip out Argentina, you really see a good balance of volume and pricing even in emerging markets. We keep on investing on our franchises in route to market, in quality of our brands, and so we expect that to continue. And we will always try to strike the right balance between pricing and volume.

所以就銷量而言，顯然，我們對目前的情況感到滿意。我們很高興看到營收成長主要來自銷售和價格的良好平衡。我們認為這種平衡非常重要，因為它既能讓我們在市場上創造價值，又能讓我們擁有演算法真正充分發揮作用所需的槓桿作用。這種情況幾乎普遍存在。從數據上看，新興市場的情況可能略好。但剔除阿根廷市場後，即使在新興市場，銷售和價格也確實達到了很好的平衡。我們持續投資於加盟店的市場通路和品牌品質，因此我們預計這種情況會持續下去。我們將始終努力在價格和銷售之間取得適當的平衡。

So I don't think Q4 was a material exception to the rest of the year. I think the only one that came back in terms of volume growth in the second part of the year is North America. That is executing quite well behind biscuits, both in terms of marketing, and I would say, in terms of DSD execution. So I think we will continue seeing that as we continue investing in our franchises. In Brazil, quite frankly, the supply chain issue is, for the most part, behind us, but there is more work to be done. And on PBs, I don't know, Dirk, if you want to comment a bit on specifically on what we're doing and how we see that progressing in 2020.

所以我認為第四季的情況與全年其他季度並無本質差異。我認為今年下半年銷售成長唯一恢復的地區是北美。就餅乾而言，無論是在行銷方面，還是在直接送貨上門 (DSD) 的執行方面，它的表現都相當不錯。所以我認為，隨著我們繼續投資特許經營業務，這種情況還會繼續發生。坦白說，巴西的供應鏈問題在很大程度上已經過去，但仍有許多工作要做。至於個人最佳成績（PB），我不知道，德克，你是否願意具體談談我們正在做的事情以及我們對 2020 年進展的看法。

Yes. Yes, so the PB market is starting to recuperate a little bit but still not that great. And on top of that, Tang, our brand, which was the leading brand, was having some share challenges. So what -- and as a result of that, we saw some destocking of PBs in the trade because there was less demand for it. So what we're doing is we are launching a new bundle on Tang, going a little bit back to what Tang was in the past. We had probably drifted a little bit too much into new variety, new flavor and so on. And more, bringing it back to how Tang can really play a role in the daily beverage choice of kids in the family and how it contributes to that.

是的。是的，PB市場開始略有復甦，但情況仍然不太樂觀。此外，我們的領導品牌 Tang 也面臨著一些市場佔有率的挑戰。所以——結果，我們看到市場上出現了一些花生醬的去庫存，因為對花生醬的需求減少了。所以，我們正在做的就是在 Tang 上推出一個新的套餐，稍微回歸一下 Tang 過去的風格。我們可能有點過於追求新品種、新口味等等了。此外，還要回到唐飲料如何在家庭兒童的日常飲料選擇中發揮作用，以及它如何促成這種選擇。

We're increasing our investments. We're launching a new campaign. We're launching, of course, a number of new flavors. But overall, it's a bit too early to say what's going to happen. We're in the middle of the season of Brazil at the moment, but that's what we're doing on powdered beverages.

我們正在增加投資。我們即將發起一項新的活動。當然，我們也會推出一系列新口味。但總的來說，現在預測未來走向還為時過早。我們現在正處於巴西賽季的中期，但這就是我們用粉末飲料所做的事情。

In terms of comparison there, the second part of the year will be easier in terms of top line because we started the destocking of PBs in the second part. So I think that may be the way you have to think about how it will phase out throughout the year.

從比較的角度來看，下半年的營收會比較容易一些，因為我們在下半年開始將PB產品去庫存。所以我認為，這或許是你需要思考它將如何在一年中逐步淘汰的方式。

Our next question is from John Baumgartner with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的約翰·鮑姆加特納。

Dirk, I wanted to dig a little bit into the local brands. And I guess first off, can you maybe ballpark what percentage of the revenue base there that's already been activated with the increased investments? And of the brands that have not been activated, how are you thinking about the phasing of the investment uptick between 2020 and to be 2021 at this point?

德克，我想稍微了解一下本地品牌。首先，您能否大致估算一下，隨著投資的增加，目前已啟動的收入基礎佔總收入的百分比是多少？對於那些尚未啟動的品牌，您目前如何考慮在 2020 年到 2021 年期間逐步增加投資？

Yes. So the local brands, I would roughly say about 45% of our portfolio is global brands. About 45% is local brands that we want to activate, and then about 10% is brands that we do not want to activate and largely run them for cash.

是的。所以，在本地品牌方面，我粗略估計我們產品組合中約有 45% 是全球品牌。其中約 45% 是我們想要啟動的本地品牌，另外約 10% 是我們不想啟動的品牌，主要是為了獲利而經營它們。

Of those local brands, those 45%, most of them have been activated. I wouldn't say yet with optimal media spend yet. So that's where we want to increase it. But the ones that we have been able to increase media and reposition them and give them sort of a new purpose, that has worked really well for us. So one of the most striking examples would be Jubilee in Russia, which is a legacy biscuit brand, which was kind of dormant. We've revamped it, and it's now showing double-digit growth and strong market share increase. And we see that with a number of brands. LU, in Europe. We see that with a number of brands around the world.

在這些本土品牌中，45%的品牌已經投入營運。我現在還不能說媒體投入已經達到最佳水準。所以這就是我們希望增加的地方。但是，我們能夠增加媒體曝光度、重新定位並賦予它們某種新用途的那些項目，對我們來說效果非常好。最引人注目的例子之一是俄羅斯的 Jubilee，這是一個歷史悠久的餅乾品牌，但當時它處於某種沉寂狀態。我們已經對其進行了改進，現在它實現了兩位數的成長和強勁的市場份額成長。我們看到很多品牌都存在這種情況。LU，在歐洲。我們在世界各地的許多品牌中都看到了這種情況。

So I wouldn't say that -- within that 45% that part was not activated and another part was activated, no. But overall, the local brands are growing 3.2% versus the global brands. But the local brands are now getting very close to category growth, and we really want them to be in line with category growth. And the global brands clearly need to be above that. That's the way we think about it.

所以我不會說——在那 45% 的樣本中，一部分沒有被激活，而另一部分被激活了，不。但整體而言，本土品牌比國際品牌成長了 3.2%。但本土品牌現在已經非常接近品類成長，我們真心希望它們能與品類成長一致。而全球品牌顯然應該凌駕於此之上。我們就是這麼想的。

Okay. And then just a follow-up on that, where you had increased the investment in those local brands, I'm curious how your competitors are responding. Are you seeing them generally staying rational in terms of pricing and kind of following your lead, doubling down on marketing and innovation of their own? Just what are the observations there so far in terms of the competitive dynamics?

好的。關於您加大對本地品牌的投資，我很想知道您的競爭對手對此有何反應。您是否發現他們在定價方面總體上保持理性，並在某種程度上跟隨您的領導，加倍投入行銷和自身創新？就競爭動態而言，目前觀察到的情況究竟如何？

Well, we try to avoid to run price promotions and so on, on the local brands. So the reaction there has been -- I mean, I wouldn't say we are really in a price war as I think about it around the world.

我們盡量避免對本地品牌進行價格促銷等活動。所以那裡的反應是——我的意思是，就我目前在全球範圍內的思考來看，我不會說我們真的處於一場價格戰之中。

Yes, as we move some of these local brands, and sometimes, we move them more into the sustainability direction and things like that, yes, there is a reaction of competition trying to do the same. But I think overall, that's very good for the category because that will help the consumer increase its interest in our category. So we're not against it. I think it's a good movement overall.

是的，當我們推動一些本土品牌，有時甚至推動它們朝著永續發展的方向發展時，確實會引發競爭對手的效仿。但我認為整體而言，這對該品類來說是件好事，因為這將有助於提高消費者對我們品類的興趣。所以我們並不反對。我認為整體來說這是一項不錯的運動。

We'll take our next question from Chris Growe with Stifel.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Stifel 公司的 Chris Growe 提出的問題。

I just had a question, if I could ask first, and I don't think you've addressed it yet. But just I'm curious what rate of inflation do you expect for this year. And then related to that, you talked about some pricing, you have some cost savings coming through. Is it pricing that mostly offsets cost inflation for the year? Or will you need some -- maybe your simplified growth savings offsets some of that as well?

我有個問題，如果可以的話，我想先問一下，我覺得您還沒有回答過這個問題。我只是好奇你預計今年的通膨率是多少。然後，關於價格方面，您也談到了一些成本節約措施。價格是否基本抵銷了全年的成本通膨？或者您需要一些——也許您簡化的成長儲蓄也能抵消一部分？

So I think when you look at the last couple of years, we have seen quite a bit of inflation pressure, mostly around, I would say, transportation costs, labor costs. And I would add Forex to that. Clearly, with the dollar strengthening, there was a big inflation component attached to that.

所以我覺得，回顧過去幾年，我們看到了相當大的通膨壓力，主要集中在運輸成本和勞動成本。我還要加上外匯交易。顯然，美元走強帶動了通貨膨脹。

Commodities were a little bit more favorable than the last 5 years. Over the last couple of years, I would say. As we move forward, we see a little bit of more normal inflation pressure around labor. And clearly, there are differences around the world. There are economies like India where labor inflation is quite high. But overall, for the company, it is a little bit lower in that area. But clearly, we see a little bit more of a commodity-driven inflation, particularly around cocoa. Dairy is another one, and packaging costs as well.

大宗商品價格比過去五年略微有利。可以說，在過去的兩年裡。隨著情勢的發展，我們看到勞動市場出現了一些較正常的通膨壓力。顯然，世界各地存在差異。有些經濟體，例如印度，勞動成本通膨率相當高。但整體而言，公司在這方面的表現略低。但很明顯，我們看到大宗商品價格上漲導致的通膨加劇，尤其是可可價格上漲。乳製品是另一個因素，包裝成本也是。

So all in all, we expect commodities, Forex and inflation to be in 2020 in the ballpark of what we have seen in '19. And so we expect, obviously, to price that away.

總而言之，我們預計 2020 年大宗商品、外匯和通貨膨脹將與 2019 年的情況大致相同。因此，我們顯然希望透過定價來彌補這一點。

In the short term, I think we do, as a company, a good job in putting in place good coverage strategies. And so we are never hand-to-mouth in terms of some of these commodities, or even some packaging inflation can be covered well through various instruments. And so in the short term, we will always try to strike the best balance between our volume, our pricing and our inflation. In the long term or in the medium term, we really want to price it away.

短期來看，我認為我們公司在製定良好的保險覆蓋策略方面做得很好。因此，我們從來不會在某些商品方面捉襟見肘，甚至一些包裝通膨也可以透過各種手段得到很好的彌補。因此，在短期內，我們將始終努力在銷售、定價和通貨膨脹之間取得最佳平衡。從長遠或中期來看，我們真的希望透過定價來消除這種可能性。

I can't give you the exact number in terms of pricing. We don't guide to a breakdown between what we say in terms of revenue and volume and pricing. But I think it is fair to say I don't see dynamics changing dramatically into 2020.

我無法提供確切的價格數字。我們不打算詳細分析收入、銷售和定價之間的關係。但我認為可以公平地說，我預計到 2020 年，市場動態不會發生劇烈變化。

What we do in terms of productivity and cost savings initiatives, reality is what we would like to do is for that money to be half reinvested back into the business and fund A&C and route-to-market investments, and the rest to be dropped to the bottom line. So that's the way we think. We see productivity and cost-saving initiatives to be the real upside to margin and stepped up investments.

在提高生產力和節省成本方面，我們所做的，實際上我們希望將這筆錢的一半重新投資到業務中，用於研發和市場通路投資，其餘部分則用於提高利潤。這就是我們的想法。我們認為提高生產力和節省成本的措施才是提高利潤率和加強投資的真正途徑。

Okay. I had just one other quick question, which would be -- and I think this gets classified under the route-to-market investments. But you've had expansion of distribution in some of the faster-growth channels. You talked about the U.S., the club stores and discount stores. I think that's also occurring in the emerging markets. I'm just curious, is that an incremental investment level for you? Is that costing more? Is that part of your investment in 2020 as well? And should we see that be a contributor to revenue growth?

好的。我還有一個小問題，那就是──我認為這應該歸類為市場通路投資。但你們在一些成長較快的管道中擴大了分銷範圍。你談到了美國、會員製商店和折扣店。我認為新興市場也出現了這種情況。我只是好奇，這對你來說算是個增量投資水準嗎？這樣成本更高嗎？這也是您2020年投資計畫的一部分嗎？這是否應該成為營收成長的因素？

Yes. We are -- if I would summarize what we did in '19, which we are largely repeating in '20, maybe even increasing a little bit in the developed markets, that would be particularly around seasonals that we try to have better and stronger in-store presence. And then also going into the -- what we call the alternative growth channels in the U.S., that would be convenience, for instance, and put a bit more manpower, a bit more investment in there.

是的。如果讓我總結一下我們在 2019 年所做的事情，我們在 2020 年也基本上重複了這些做法，甚至可能在已開發市場略有增加，那就是我們特別關注季節性產品，努力在店內擁有更好、更強大的存在感。然後，我們還要進入——我們稱之為美國的替代成長管道，例如便利性管道，並在那裡投入更多的人力和資金。

In the emerging markets, it largely has to see with physical distribution, opening more distribution centers, having more trucks on the road, putting more coolers in the stores in India. But also in China, for instance, it means going into third-tier cities, setting up sales teams there and starting to cover these cities. So for instance, in China, we've added about 140,000 new stores this year, and we are planning to continue that into 2020.

在新興市場，這主要取決於實體分銷，例如開設更多分銷中心，增加道路上的卡車數量，以及在印度的商店放置更多冷藏櫃。但在中國，這也意味著進入三線城市，在那裡設立銷售團隊，並開始涵蓋這些城市。例如，在中國，我們今年新增了約 14 萬家門市，我們計劃在 2020 年繼續保持這一成長勢頭。

So it does help our revenue, clearly. I mean we're seeing well-above category growth in China, and we are seeing very strong double-digit growth in India. And we are counting that our distribution expansion is helping us. And at the same time, in the developed markets, we want to continue that shift into more seasonals and more alternative growth channels which also will help our revenue growth.

所以，這顯然有助於提高我們的收入。我的意思是，我們在中國看到了遠高於行業平均的成長，在印度也看到了非常強勁的兩位數成長。我們認為，分銷管道的擴張正在幫助我們。同時，在已開發市場，我們希望繼續向更多季節性產品和更多替代成長管道轉型，這也將有助於我們的收入成長。

We'll take our next question from Steve Strycula with UBS.

接下來，我們將回答來自瑞銀集團的史蒂夫·斯特里庫拉提出的問題。

So Dirk, a quick question for you to kick off. As you think about the outlook for 2020 and your guidance for 3% plus growth, how should we think about how you evaluated macro considerations, whether it be what's kind of unfolding in front of us in China right now or even what some of the other multinational companies have cited with macro softness in select countries across South America? I know that you called out discrete issues for the powdered beverage category, but I'd love to hear your view on those 2 macro situations. And I have a quick follow-up for Luca.

德克，首先問你一個問題。在您展望 2020 年並給予 3% 以上成長的預期時，我們應該如何看待您對宏觀因素的評估？無論是目前中國正在發生的事情，還是其他一些跨國公司提到的南美部分國家宏觀經濟疲軟的情況？我知道您指出了粉狀飲料品類的具體問題，但我很想聽聽您對這兩個宏觀情況的看法。我還有一個問題想問盧卡。

Okay. So if I start with maybe the developed markets. If we see a little bit of a pullback in developed markets, which we don't see at the moment, to be honest. We see some very vibrant growth in Europe and in the U.S. So it's clearly not visible for us. But I would say our snacking categories are a little bit more resilient if there would be a pullback in the economy than other FMCG categories. Trade tensions between the U.S. and others are really not currently impacting us. Brexit, I would say, is a risk. Although I don't see it in 2020. But if there would be no deal near the end of the year, that would be possibly a disruptor. But I assume at this stage that they will find a deal and that it will be a relatively smooth transition.

好的。所以，如果我先從已開發市場開始的話。如果已開發市場出現一些回檔（說實話，目前我們還沒有看到這種情況）。我們看到歐洲和美國出現了非常強勁的成長。所以，對我們來說，這顯然是看不到的。但我認為，如果經濟下滑，我們的零食類產品比其他快速消費品類產品更具韌性。美國與其他國家之間的貿易緊張局勢目前對我們並沒有造成實際影響。我認為，英國脫歐是一種風險。雖然我認為2020年不會發生這種情況。但如果年底前仍未達成協議，可能會造成混亂。但我認為現階段他們會達成協議，過渡過程也會相對順利。

In the emerging markets, and I know that some of our colleagues are seeing different impacts there, we are not feeling an impact in India or in China. But we would probably be a bit more cautious around projections for Latin America. Obviously, we have high-inflationary environment in Argentina which we are largely managing to protect our scale and our absolute profit generation as well as our cash flow in the country. And we do know, and we see it, of course, that there is more volatility in emerging markets, but we feel that the growth opportunities far outweigh the risks of that. You have to also take into account that snacking behaviors and snacking demand is still growing very fast in these markets, and there's still a lot of runway there.

在新興市場，我知道我們的一些同事在那裡感受到了不同的影響，但我們在印度或中國沒有感受到影響。但對於拉丁美洲的預測，我們可能會更加謹慎。顯然，阿根廷的通貨膨脹環境很高，我們正在盡力應對，以保護我們在該國的規模、絕對利潤以及現金流。我們當然知道，也看到了，新興市場的波動性更大，但我們認為，成長機會遠大於風險。你還必須考慮到，在這些市場中，零食消費行為和零食需求仍在快速成長，而且還有很大的成長空間。

And then I would overall say that our categories are showing an acceleration into 2019. We're forecasting them at 3%, which is our long-term expectation for our categories. We don't see that at the moment as being a risk because we believe that there is still a lot of opportunity for consumers to keep on snacking more. And for instance, our study we recently did about the state of snacking clearly showed that the behavior is on the uptick.

總的來說，我認為我們各個類別在 2019 年都呈現出加速成長的趨勢。我們預測它們的成長率為 3%，這是我們對各個品類的長期預期。我們目前並不認為這是一個風險，因為我們相信消費者仍然有很多機會繼續增加零食消費。例如，我們最近進行的一項關於零食消費狀況的研究清楚地表明，這種行為正在增加。

So overall, I would say we cannot confirm some of the other impressions that you've heard from some of your colleagues. We feel pretty good about what we're seeing around the world.

總的來說，我認為我們無法證實你從一些同事那裡聽到的其他一些看法。我們對目前在世界各地看到的景象感到非常滿意。

Very helpful. And then a quick question for Luca. Did I miss in your prepared remarks for fiscal '20 guidance what the EBIT dollar outlook would be on a constant currency basis to kind of get to the algorithm you're on EPS?

很有幫助。然後我還有一個問題要問盧卡。我是否錯過了您在 2020 財年業績指引準備的發言稿中關於按固定匯率計算的 EBIT 美元前景，以便得出您用於計算 EPS 的演算法？

Look, we purposely didn't go there necessarily. We gave you enough elements. I think we have commented a bit on what type of gross profit growth this is for the year. Obviously, we expect gross profit to be the source of funding for A&C and route to market. The long-term algorithm implies strong mid-single-digit to high growth. And again, I think in 2020, if you do the math, we should be around about there.

你看，我們並非有意要去那裡。我們已經提供了足夠的元素。我認為我們已經對今年的毛利成長類型進行了一些討論。顯然，我們預期毛利成為A&C的資金來源和市場管道。長期演算法預測將實現強勁的中個位數至高成長。而且，我認為到了 2020 年，如果你計算一下，我們應該可以達到那個水準。

We believe in the end the way we are running the business, which is we want to have volume growth, we want to have share gains amplifying a category growth that is projected, and exiting the year last year, it was 2.8%, so around about 3%, I think that gives us, together with cost savings and investments in the business, the ability for us -- by not even counting much on below the OI or the EBIT line items, gives us the ability to achieve the high single-digit EPS that is part of the guidance we gave for 2020. And importantly, the $3 billion plus of free cash flow, that is our long-term guidance for cash.

我們相信，最終我們目前的經營方式——也就是我們希望實現銷售成長，我們希望實現市佔率成長，從而放大預期中的品類成長——能夠幫助我們實現目標。去年年底，我們的成長率為 2.8%，所以大約是 3%。我認為這，加上成本節約和對業務的投資，使我們有能力——甚至無需過多依賴營業收入或息稅前利潤以下的項目——實現我們 2020 年給出的高個位數每股收益預期。更重要的是，30億美元以上的自由現金流是我們對現金流的長期預期。

Steve, just before we switch to the next question, did your question also consider the coronavirus in China? Was that -- because I largely talked about the economies that we see around the world, but maybe it's also good that I comment a little bit on China and the coronavirus situation for us.

史蒂夫，在我們進入下一個問題之前，你的問題是否也考慮到了中國的冠狀病毒疫情？那是因為我主要談論的是世界各地的經濟狀況，但也許我也應該稍微談談中國和冠狀病毒疫情。

So quickly, China is about $1 billion net revenue country for us, so about 4.5%. We had a very strong 2019, and it contributed to our growth. We do believe there will be an impact on our Q1 revenue, but it's really too early to quantify for us at this point. We are monitoring the situation closely, and we'll update you if in case there is something that we need to report.

很快，中國就為我們帶來了約 10 億美元的淨收入，約占我們總收入的 4.5%。我們在 2019 年取得了非常強勁的業績，這促進了我們的發展。我們相信這會對第一季的營收產生影響，但目前對我們來說量化影響還為時過早。我們正在密切關注事態發展，如有任何需要報告的情況，我們會及時通知您。

The outbreak has come during Chinese New Year, which is a time of high consumption. Our sell-in was in line with expectations. It was quite good. We now have to see in the coming weeks what has happened with the sell-out during Chinese New Year.

疫情爆發正值中國新年期間，而春節正是消費高峰。我們的銷售情況符合預期。還不錯。接下來幾週，我們需要觀察春節期間的售罄情況。

The other thing that is happening is that normally today our factories -- we have 4 factories in China. Two of our factories are in a region where we normally would have started up our factories again. The government -- the local government has asked to keep our factories closed for another 10-year -- sorry, 10 days in order to not have too much of a risk with the infection. And we also have voluntarily put some travel restrictions to our own people to travel less within China and also for our global people to travel less to China.

另一件事是，通常情況下，我們今天的工廠——我們在中國有 4 家工廠。我們的兩家工廠位於我們通常會重新開工的地區。政府——地方政府要求我們的工廠再關閉 10 年——抱歉，是 10 天，以便降低感染風險。我們也自願對本國員工實施了一些旅遊限制，減少在中國境內的出行，同時也對全球員工減少了前往中國的出行。

But overall, I would like to point out that we do believe that this could have a short-term impact. But long term, we continue to be very convinced for the outlook of the Chinese market for us.

但總的來說，我想指出，我們認為這可能會產生短期影響。但從長遠來看，我們仍然非常看好中國市場的前景。

Our next question is from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑森·英格利希。

Two things for me. First, congrats on a solid year. It's great to see the momentum, particularly on your core business, biscuits and chocolate, performing quite nicely. The gum and confection side, though, continues to languish on market share side. Can you touch on what, if any, plans you have to resuscitate that business? So that's question one.

對我來說有兩件事。首先，恭喜你度過了紮實的一年。很高興看到這種發展勢頭，尤其是你們的核心業務——餅乾和巧克力——表現相當不錯。然而，口香糖和糖果的市佔率仍然低迷。您能否談談您是否有任何計劃來重振這家企業？這是第一個問題。

And then second question, in the context of overall the business doing pretty solid with the portfolio you have, can you also then touch on your strategic ambitions as we think about M&A and some of the investments that you have out there, the potential to monetize and the potential to reallocate some of those to build your portfolio in new areas? Just update us on your broader thought process on strategic direction.

第二個問題，鑑於貴公司目前的投資組合整體表現相當穩健，您能否談談貴公司的戰略目標，例如併購以及貴公司現有的一些投資，這些投資的變現潛力以及將其中一些重新配置到新領域以構建投資組合的潛力？請您簡要介紹一下您在策略方向上的整體思路。

Okay. Well, what I do is maybe I'll talk about gum and candy, and then Luca can talk a little bit about our M&A and strategic investments.

好的。我的做法是，我可能會聊聊口香糖和糖果，然後盧卡可以稍微談談我們的併購和策略性投資。

So there is a clear distinction this year in '19 between gum and candy. On gum, what has changed or not changed is the fact that we're doing very well in emerging markets where we are gaining share in our gum business. We have, year-to-date, very good revenue growth. We gained share, particularly in China, which is our second-biggest gum market in the world. And in Brazil, we are gaining share. It is clearly not the strongest category in those markets, but it is positive growth for the category and positive share for us in emerging markets.

所以，2019 年口香糖和糖果之間有了明顯的差異。在口香糖方面，變化或未變化的是，我們在新興市場做得非常好，我們在口香糖業務的份額正在不斷增長。今年迄今為止，我們的營收成長非常出色。我們獲得了市場份額，尤其是在中國，中國是我們全球第二大口香糖市場。在巴西，我們的市佔率正在擴大。顯然，它不是這些市場中最強勁的品類，但對於該品類而言是積極的增長，對於我們在新興市場而言也是積極的份額。

We continue to be challenged in developed markets, largely in the U.S. Europe is in a -- we're clearly seeing a better situation. But it's the U.S. that continues to be very difficult for us. The category is displaying now low growth, but it's growing. But we are still losing some share. And we have some fundamental category challenges, and we have some brand challenges. I would say that on our major brand, Trident, things are quite okay. It's in the smaller brands, which we are gradually, I would say, flush out of the system. That's what is causing this continued share loss for us.

我們在已開發市場，尤其是美國，仍面臨挑戰。歐洲的情況顯然要好得多。但對我們來說，美國仍然是個非常棘手的問題。該類別目前增長緩慢，但仍在增長。但我們仍在失去一些市場份額。我們面臨一些品類的根本挑戰，也面臨一些品牌的挑戰。我認為，就我們的主要品牌 Trident 而言，情況相當不錯。它存在於一些小品牌中，而我們正在逐步地，可以說，將它們從系統中清除出去。這就是導致我們市場佔有率持續下滑的原因。

As it relates to candy, I would say, the reason why candy was not as vibrant this year was largely due to the U.S. market, where we had a capacity issue. That capacity issue is now solved, and we expect a much better 2020 for our candy business in the U.S.

就糖果而言，我認為今年糖果市場不如往年繁榮的主要原因是美國市場，我們遇到了產能問題。產能問題現在已經解決，我們預計 2020 年我們在美國的糖果業務會好得多。

I would say that as we look at the future plans for gum, it's a difficult situation for us because gum is very profitable and gives us scale in key markets. So it's not something that we can just sort of shift aside. We are working on a number of initiatives to address that share decline. First of all, as I said, strengthening our core brands like Stride in China or Trident in the U.S. improving quality, changing the positioning, improving the positioning. We're doing an expansion into mints. That, of course, doesn't solve our gum problem, but that does reinforce the brand. And we have very good results with that in, for instance, France, with Hollywood. And then we have started to launch a number of new experiences, new reasons to chew, particularly in Brazil, and we are also seeing some very good traction on that. So we have the first sort of test and learns as it relates to renew the initiatives on gum, and we have to see how those pan out in 2020.

我認為，展望口香糖的未來計劃，這對我們來說是一個艱難的局面，因為口香糖利潤豐厚，能夠幫助我們在關鍵市場實現規模化。所以這不是我們可以置之不理的事。我們正在進行多項措施來應對市場佔有率下降的問題。首先，正如我所說，我們要加強我們的核心品牌，例如中國的Stride或美國的Trident，提高質量，改變定位，改善定位。我們正在拓展薄荷糖業務。當然，這並不能解決我們的口香糖問題，但確實能加強品牌形象。例如，我們在法國和好萊塢都取得了非常好的效果。然後，我們開始推出一系列新的體驗，新的咀嚼理由，尤其是在巴西，我們也看到了非常好的迴響。因此，我們首先要進行一些測試和學習，以重新推出口香糖相關的舉措，我們得看看這些舉措在 2020 年會如何發展。

So maybe, Luca, you can talk about M&A?

盧卡，或許你可以談談併購方面的問題？

Yes. Maybe let's start with coffee. And I will start by saying that the JVs are performing well and are very attractive at this point in time in terms of what we have always described as a financial investment. And so there will be a point in time where we will exit those investments. They are good investments, they continue to perform quite strongly. We had a good earnings growth related to them in 2019, and we are expecting solid earning throughout into 2020.

是的。或許我們可以先喝杯咖啡。首先我要說的是，合資企業目前表現良好，就我們一直以來所說的金融投資而言，它們非常有吸引力。因此，總有一天我們會退出這些投資。這些都是不錯的投資，它們的表現一直都非常強勁。2019 年，我們與這些業務相關的收益成長良好，我們預計 2020 年全年收益也將保持穩健成長。

The category itself continues to be attractive. I think in the past, we commented a bit into how much we would welcome an IPO of JDE. I think that would establish a public mark for that investment. We believe that eventually will improve our value overall as Mondelez as it is a good asset. And I think it will allow you guys to do a proper sum of the parts analysis for Mondelez.

該類別本身依然具有吸引力。我認為過去我們曾就我們多麼歡迎 JDE 上市發表過一些評論。我認為這將為這項投資樹立一個公開的標誌。我們相信，這最終將提升億滋國際的整體價值，因為它是一項優質資產。我認為這將使你們能夠對億滋國際進行正確的分部分析。

By way of a segue way for that, I would say also that JDE is truly a great company, still quite a bit of untapped potential. It's a compelling growth story as a company, and it is a little bit more than roasted ground. I think it is a company that has a big presence in premium segments through what we call instant coffee and on-demand as well as a professional presence in terms of away-from-home and servicing other occasions than in-home consumption. So we feel quite good about those.

藉此機會，我還想說，JDE 真是一家很棒的公司，還有很大的未開發潛力。這是一個引人入勝的公司成長故事，它不僅僅是烤肉粉那麼簡單。我認為這家公司透過我們所謂的速溶咖啡和按需服務，在高端市場佔據了很大的份額，同時在家庭以外的場合和消費之外的其他場合也擁有專業的市場地位。所以我們對這些結果感覺相當不錯。

Having said that, the timing of the exit, as we always said, will depend upon how much potential we still see in those companies and an appropriate use of funds, which potentially is a better M&A and assets that we like in the snacking landscape globally.

話雖如此，正如我們一直所說，退出的時機將取決於我們對這些公司仍有多少潛力以及資金的合理利用，這可能意味著在全球零食領域進行更好的併購和收購我們看好的資產。

We will remain disciplined in terms of M&A, and we have discussed that our preference at this point in time is on bolt-ons. We are looking at premium well-being areas, adjacencies and trying to fill some of the portfolio gaps we have, both geographically and category-wise in some places around the world. So we believe that by staying disciplined, we have -- we will have the ability to fill some of these gaps and step up even more our growth rate on the top line and on earnings as well.

我們將在併購方面保持謹慎，我們已經討論過，目前我們更傾向於進行補充性收購。我們正在關注高端健康產業領域及其周邊地區，並試圖填補我們在世界各地某些地區在地理和類別方面的一些產品組合空白。因此我們相信，透過保持自律，我們將有能力填補這些差距，並進一步提高營收和獲利的成長率。

We'll take our final question from Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal.

我們最後回答來自蒙特利爾銀行的 Ken Zaslow 提出的問題。

I just have 2 quick questions. One is on the investment, at what point do they become self-funding? I know they've had good returns, but how do you think about the years in which it will just kind of be a virtuous cycle?

我只有兩個問題要問。一是投資，它們何時才能自籌資金？我知道他們取得了不錯的回報，但你如何看待那些只會形成良性循環的年份呢？

And the second question I have is, in Europe what has the utilization rates been in the facilities? And where are they now and where they look to be? Because it seems like that part of the opportunity that you guys continue to leverage over time, as you get more volume through it, is operating leverage. And I'll leave it at those 2.

我的第二個問題是，歐洲的設施利用率是多少？他們現在在哪裡？他們看起來會去哪裡？因為隨著你們業務量的增加，你們似乎一直在利用的那部分機會就是經營槓桿。我就說到這裡吧。

Okay. Maybe I'll talk about the investments and then Luca can talk about the operating leverage.

好的。也許我會談談投資方面的問題，然後盧卡可以談談經營槓桿的問題。

Yes.

是的。

So when the investments become self-funding, I think it's still a little bit of way for us. We feel that we have potential to drive the categories around the world, and we see good reaction, good return on investment, still. And so as we are trying to develop a long-term algorithm that is repeatable year after year, at this stage, it feels that the algorithm allows us to keep on adding more investment every year, and hopefully, that translates into stronger [numbers.] And so I would say at a certain stage, extra investments will not generate more growth, and then we have to start questioning it. But at this stage, it's working really well for us.

所以，當投資實現自籌資金時，我認為我們還有一段路要走。我們認為我們有潛力在全球範圍內推動這些品類的發展，我們看到了良好的市場反應和良好的投資回報。因此，我們正在努力開發一種可以年復一年重複使用的長期演算法。現階段，演算法似乎允許我們每年增加投資，希望這能轉化為更強勁的業績。所以我認為，在某個階段，額外的投資不會帶來更多成長，那時我們就必須開始質疑這種做法了。但就目前而言，它對我們來說效果非常好。

So it is self-funding. I mean, for the algorithm to work and for us to be able to deliver upon the premise of share growth, high single-digit EPS and $3 billion of cash flow, that algorithm itself includes a level of investment, which is factored in. And it is allowing us to hit on all those numbers.

所以它是自籌資金的。我的意思是，為了讓演算法發揮作用，為了讓我們能夠實現股價成長、每股盈餘達到個位數高位以及 30 億美元現金流的目標，該演算法本身就包含一定程度的投資，而這已被考慮在內。它使我們能夠達到所有這些目標。

I think in the end, the measure of success for us is whether we will be able to deliver share gains consistently and the second one is if we increase our volume consistently. All of that came to fruition in 2019.

我認為最終衡量我們成功的標準是能否持續提升市場份額，其次是能否持續提高銷售量。這一切在2019年都得以實現。

And then the second part of the question, I -- there was a little bit of a disturbance in the line. Could you repeat it, maybe?

然後是問題的第二部分，我——線路中出現了一點混亂。您能再說一次嗎？

I think I got it. It was about...

我想我明白了。事情是這樣的…

Yes. It's on the European side, it seems like you keep on getting margin expansion. Your utilization -- basically, the assets have been put together through acquisitions. As you keep on getting leverage and do some restructuring a little bit, it sounds like the utilization rate should continue to increase. Where have they been, where are they, and where are they going, I guess, is kind of what I'm thinking.

是的。在歐洲這邊，利潤率似乎一直在擴張。您的資產利用率——基本上，這些資產是透過收購整合起來的。隨著你不斷獲得槓桿並進行一些重組，利用率應該會繼續提高。我想，我一直在想，他們從哪裡來，他們在哪裡，他們又要去哪裡。

Yes. Look, I think in general terms, we don't comment on capacity utilization. But this -- I think that will be a bit of too much of a comment, I would say.

是的。你看，我認為一般來說，我們不會對產能利用率發表評論。但是——我覺得這樣評論有點太過了。

Look, we have invested quite a bit in terms of both creating a more nimble and a more flexible organization, both in overheads and infrastructure. It's not only legacy sites. We invested in brand-new sites in Europe. And Europe, I remind you, is a little bit more than Continental Europe or U.K. It is also Russia, in our case.

你看，我們在營運成本和基礎設施方面都投入了相當多的資金，以創造一個更靈活敏捷的組織。不僅僅是老舊網站。我們在歐洲投資建造了全新的網站。我提醒各位，歐洲不只指歐洲大陸或英國，在我們這裡，它還包括俄羅斯。

So I would characterize the old status of the facilities in Europe quite good. It can be further optimized, but we still have available capacity in terms of continuing growing the big blockbuster brands that we have. Milka is one example, Cadbury, Oreo, but also the local brands. And I think that's what we are working on.

所以我認為歐洲舊設施的狀況描述得相當準確。雖然還有進一步優化的空間，但我們仍然有能力繼續發展我們現有的熱門品牌。米爾卡、吉百利、奧利奧都是例子，還有本土品牌。我認為這就是我們正在努力的方向。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, in conclusion, I would say that 2019 was a major step forward for the company, and it was the first full year of executing our new strategy. We've successfully launched and driven this more consumer-centric approach to get growth across our organization. And as a result, we are building an effective local-first culture that is delivering.

總之，我認為2019年是公司向前邁出的重要一步，也是我們新策略全面實施的第一年。我們已成功推出並推動了這種以消費者為中心的策略，從而實現了整個組織的成長。因此，我們正在建立一種高效的本地優先文化，而這種文化正在發揮成效。

We had a good finish to the year with broad-based revenue growth and strong earnings and cash flow. And the momentum we've created across our brands and our geographies this past year reinforces our confidence that we have in our strategy, our people and our ability to execute.

今年年底我們取得了不錯的成績，收入全面成長，獲利和現金流都很強勁。過去一年，我們在旗下品牌和各個地區所取得的成就，增強了我們對自身策略、員工和執行能力的信心。

There is certainly more work to do, and a long way of opportunities is ahead of us, but we believe that the early success, combined with the attractive category dynamics and further targeted investments provides us greater confidence that we can deliver sustained long-term growth and attractive total returns.

當然，我們還有很多工作要做，未來還有很長的路要走，但我們相信，早期的成功，加上有吸引力的品類動態和進一步的有針對性的投資，使我們更有信心實現持續的長期增長和可觀的總回報。

With that, I would like to end the call. Thank you for assisting.

通話到此結束。謝謝你的協助。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。