億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Mondelez International 2025 fourth-quarter and full year earnings question-and-answer Session. (Operator Instructions) On today's call are Dirk Van de Put, Chairman and CEO; Luca Zaramella, COO and CFO; and Shep Dunlap, SVP of Investor Relations. Earlier this afternoon, the company posted a press release and prepared remarks, both of which are available on its website.

下午好，歡迎參加億滋國際2025年第四季及全年財報問答環節。（操作員說明）今天參加電話會議的有：董事長兼執行長 Dirk Van de Put；營運長兼財務長 Luca Zaramella；以及投資人關係資深副總裁 Shep Dunlap。今天下午早些時候，該公司發布了一份新聞稿和一份準備好的講話稿，這兩份文件都可以在其網站上找到。

During this call, the company will make forward-looking statements about performance. These statements are based on how the company sees things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，本公司將對業績做出前瞻性陳述。這些說法是基於公司目前的看法。由於風險和不確定因素，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。有關前瞻性聲明的更多詳情，請參閱本公司 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。

As the company discusses results today, unless noted as reported, it will be referencing non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in the company's GAAP results. In addition, the company provides year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, unless otherwise noted. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within the company's earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

公司今天在討論業績時，除非另有說明，否則將參考非GAAP財務指標，這些指標會根據公司GAAP業績中包含的某些項目進行調整。此外，除非另有說明，公司提供的年成長率均以固定匯率計算。您可以在公司的獲利報告中以及投影片簡報的背面找到可比較的 GAAP 指標以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

安德魯·拉扎爾，巴克萊銀行。

Dirk, maybe to start us off, clearly, significant interest in, obviously the chocolate category and how the precipitous fall in cocoa could impact the dynamic. Where is Mondelez currently on its chocolate strategy? How does it play out from here, particularly as it relates to the potential for some price deflation in areas where obviously significant pricing has been taken?

Dirk，或許我們可以先從巧克力品類以及可可價格的急劇下降將如何影響市場動態說起，這顯然引起了我們極大的興趣。億滋國際目前的巧克力戰略處於什麼階段？接下來會如何發展？尤其是在一些價格明顯上漲的地區，價格通貨緊縮的可能性有多大？

Yes. Thank you, Andrew. I would start off by saying that if you look at 2025 and the overall chocolate market in the world see the rather important price increases that took place that the category overall has shown a lot of resilience despite all the volatility. In that, we had a playbook for our chocolate strategy, which was largely to price, list price or do revenue growth management, largely through price pack architecture.

是的。謝謝你，安德魯。首先我想說的是，如果你展望 2025 年以及全球巧克力市場，你會發現價格出現了相當大的上漲，儘管市場波動劇烈，但整個巧克力品類仍然展現出了很強的韌性。當時，我們有一套巧克力策略方案，主要是透過價格包裝架構來定價、制定價格或進行收入成長管理。

And we've executed well against that chocolate playbook in '25. If you then look at the markets around the world, I think places like India, Brazil, Australia, South Africa, some of our bigger chocolate markets, we have done quite well. And also in Europe, in about half of the markets, things played out exactly as expected. However, I would say in the more northern markets in Europe, Germany, the Nordics, the UK, we saw higher-than-expected elasticity.

我們在 2025 年很好地應對了這種巧克力策略。如果你放眼全球市場，我認為像印度、巴西、澳洲、南非這些我們較大的巧克力市場，我們做得相當不錯。在歐洲，大約一半的市場，情況也完全符合預期。不過，我認為在歐洲北部市場，如德國、北歐和英國，我們看到了高於預期的彈性。

And so we have to take adjustments in '26. We have learned that certain price points are very important. And so we have adjusted already to put our products at the right price point. Some of the PPA worked, others didn't. So we are adjusting also some of the PPA we have in the market. We are planning to increase our investments behind our brands because in this year, our cocoa coverage is at a better cost than it was in '25. So we are able to increase substantially investment behind our brands.

因此，我們必須在 2026 年做出調整。我們已經了解到，某些價格點非常重要。因此，我們已經調整了產品價格，使其處於合適的水平。部分PPA方案奏效，部分則無效。因此，我們也正在調整我們在市場上的一些購電協議。我們計劃增加對旗下品牌的投資，因為今年我們的可可投入成本比 2025 年低。因此，我們能夠大幅增加對旗下品牌的投資。

And we do that because we want to get back to the normal frequency and quantity of consumption that we've seen. Penetration hasn't gone down, but the frequency and the quantity of consumption did. We are also investing in price, as I mentioned to hit those right price points and as well in new PPA. We're going to push hard on innovation.

我們這樣做是因為我們希望恢復到我們曾經看到的正常消費頻率和數量。滲透率並未下降，但消費頻率和消費量下降。正如我之前提到的，我們也在價格方面進行投資，以達到合適的價格點，同時也投資新的購電協議。我們將大力推進創新。

We have the collaboration with Biscoff, which was very successful in '25, but it really is going to go to the next level in '26. So I think we've got a very strong innovation agenda led by Biscoff with a number of other things in Europe. And then we are going to have some important activations in store. However, as you probably have seen in the last two-weeks, suddenly, the cocoa price has declined more than anybody would have expected.

我們與 Biscoff 的合作在 2025 年非常成功，但 2026 年將會更上一層樓。所以我認為，我們有一個非常強大的創新議程，由比斯科夫領導，並在歐洲開展了許多其他項目。接下來，我們將推出一些重要的活動。然而，正如你在過去兩週可能看到的那樣，可可價格突然下跌，跌幅超過了任何人的預期。

And this will have some short-term pressures largely as it relates to probably have an industry or the larger players in the industry that already are covered for '26 at a higher price than the current market price. And this could maybe give us some unexpected competitive reactions. And so we want to build in some flexibility in our guidance because we don't quite know how that is going to play out in the market in '26.

這將帶來一些短期壓力，主要是因為該行業或行業內較大的參與者可能已經以高於當前市場價格的價格獲得了 2026 年的保險。這或許會帶給我們一些意想不到的競爭反應。因此，我們希望在業績指引中留有一定的彈性，因為我們不太清楚 2026 年市場會如何發展。

What is good in all of this is that cocoa now has returned to a level that is much more in line with the historic price that we've seen, and that bodes very well for '27. As I said, we're already covered for '26. There's not a lot we can do anymore, but '27 certainly will benefit from this. So we see our chocolate business in '27 increase its margin in a considerable way.

這一切的積極意義在於，可可價格現在已經回升到與我們所看到的歷史價格更加相符的水平，這對 2027 年來說是一個非常好的兆頭。正如我所說，我們已經為 2026 年做好了準備。我們現在能做的已經不多了，但27屆學生肯定會從中受益。因此，我們預計 2027 年巧克力業務的利潤率將大幅提高。

As it relates to '26, like I said, we're going to remain very agile. We're going to do all the things that we said and then make sure we enter '27 with a lot of strength. We are planning to go through a lot more detail on what our chocolate strategy is during the CAGNY conference. So I would certainly invite everybody to come and listen to us there.

至於 2026 年，就像我之前說的，我們將保持非常靈活的策略。我們會把說過的話都做到，然後確保我們以強大的實力進入2027年。我們計劃在 CAGNY 大會上更詳細地介紹我們的巧克力策略。所以我誠摯地邀請大家來這裡聽我們演講。

Great. Really helpful. Hopefully, you can arrange and get some of the Biscoff stuff down there as well. That's just a personal favorite. And then Luca, maybe I am shifting gears over to the outlook. Maybe what's your thought process on the guidance range and sort of investment flexibility that Dirk mentioned in light of the fall in cocoa costs? And what are your updated thoughts on sort of the cocoa environment, if you will, from here?

偉大的。真的很有幫助。希望你也能安排把一些 Biscoff 的東西弄到那邊去。這只是我個人的喜好。然後，盧卡，也許我要把話題轉向展望未來了。鑑於可可價格下跌，您對德克提到的指導範圍和投資彈性有何看法？那麼，您對目前的可可產業環境有何最新看法？

Thank you, Andrew. So before commenting on the '26 guidance, maybe a brief comment about how we ended the year. And I think, as we said, we are quite happy with our emerging markets momentum and quite frankly, also happy because we saw sequential improvement in developed markets, albeit we are not fully there yet.

謝謝你，安德魯。因此，在評論 2026 年的業績指引之前，或許可以先簡單回顧一下我們這一年的收尾工作。正如我們所說，我們對新興市場的發展勢頭相當滿意，坦白說，我們也對已開發市場逐步改善感到高興，儘管我們還沒有完全實現目標。

On '26, the guiding principle of the guidance was to be prudent, particularly as we see some short-term pressure points like in the US. You know that the biscuit category is still subdued and the plan is that it will continue like that for the first half at least, with some marginal improvement in the second half. In Europe, we have planned for a chocolate category that is stable after the meaningful prices that were taken.

2026 年，指導原則是謹慎行事，尤其是我們看到美國等地存在一些短期壓力點。你知道，餅乾類別仍然低迷，而且計劃至少在上半年繼續保持這種狀態，下半年可能會略有改善。在歐洲，我們已經計劃打造一個價格在大幅波動後依然保持穩定的巧克力類別。

But we also plan for some disruption due to the usual customer negotiation process that takes place in the first part of the year. The main reason for the guidance range is that recent and sudden cocoa dynamics might require some adjustments and flexibility depending on how competitions will react to those prices and where cocoa eventually will stabilize.

但我們也預料到，由於年初通常會有客戶協商流程，可能會出現一些中斷。給出指導價範圍的主要原因是，近期可可價格的突然波動可能需要根據競爭對手對這些價格的反應以及可可價格最終穩定下來的情況進行一些調整和靈活調整。

As we said, our pipeline cost for '26 is determined at this point in time, and it is clearly at higher than current cocoa spot. So this is something that we hadn't anticipated before. And as we said, it just happened in the last couple of weeks. Our objectives are clear. We want to win with the consumers. We want to win in the marketplace, and that's one of the reasons why we are investing substantially behind our brands.

正如我們所說，我們 2026 年的管道成本目前已經確定，而且顯然高於目前的可可現貨價格。這是我們之前沒有預料到的事情。正如我們所說，這件事就發生在過去幾週內。我們的目標很明確。我們想要贏得消費者的青睞。我們希望在市場競爭中獲勝，這也是我們對旗下品牌進行大量投資的原因之一。

And hopefully, the goal is to have improved volume trajectory, particularly as we move through the year. On the phasing, maybe just one word. I commented already on the customer disruption in Europe in the first part of the year. But on profit, given the way our inventory accounting works, we will face some headwinds, and we mentioned that in the prepared remarks.

希望我們的目標是改善銷售走勢，尤其是在今年的這個階段。關於階段，或許只需要一個字。今年上半年，我已經評論過歐洲客戶體驗中斷的問題。但是就利潤而言，鑑於我們的庫存會計核算方式，我們將面臨一些不利因素，我們在準備好的發言稿中也提到了這一點。

On cocoa, I said it a few times, and I believe fundamentally, nothing has changed. If you look at supply and demand, the dynamics were clear well before the last couple of weeks. And so I believe what the market is recognizing now is maybe a little bit overdue. Obviously, we would have liked a little bit more of a balanced approach to the way down of cocoa. It happened all of a sudden.

關於可可，我說過好幾次了，我認為從根本上來說，什麼都沒有改變。如果觀察供需情況，就會發現這種動態在過去幾週之前就已經很明顯了。所以我認為，市場現在所認知到的這一點，或許有點姍姍來遲。顯然，我們希望在可可價格下跌的過程中採取更平衡的方式。事情發生得太突然了。

The reality is that in our mind, cocoa as it stands now is a fair representation of supply and demand. And that's why we believe this level is important for us to realize as we look at profitability, particularly going forward into '27 and beyond.

事實上，在我們看來，目前的可可價格能夠很好地反映供需關係。因此，我們認為實現這一目標對於我們實現盈利能力至關重要，尤其是在展望 2027 年及以後。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

Peter Galbo，美國銀行。

Luca, maybe if I can actually pick up on the comments you just made around some of the phasing more on the cost side. I know that you mentioned, I think the lion's share of it comes in, in the first-quarter. But maybe you can just talk us through a bit more the cost phasing on cocoa through '26 and then maybe how we would think about the phasing on potential price investments in chocolate over the balance of the year?

Luca，也許如果我能真正理解你剛才關於成本方面一些階段性問題的評論的話。我知道你提到過，我認為大部分收入都來自第一季。不過，您能否再詳細地為我們介紹一下 2026 年可可成本的逐步調整情況，以及我們應該如何考慮今年剩餘時間內對巧克力進行潛在價格投資的逐步調整？

Thank you, Peter. So fundamentally, maybe I'll start with the top line because I think that's a clear component of how we think about the plan in '26. As you might imagine, at this level, we are not going to price cocoa further necessarily. But it is also important to know that our profit took quite a material hit in 2025. And so we were not certainly fully priced at the level of cocoa in '25.

謝謝你，彼得。所以從根本上來說，也許我會從最高層開始，因為我認為這清楚地表明了我們如何看待 2026 年的計劃。正如你所想，在這個價位上，我們未必會進一步提高可可的價格。但同樣重要的是要知道，我們的利潤在 2025 年受到了相當大的打擊。因此，我們在 1925 年的價格肯定沒有完全達到可可的價格水準。

And albeit the pipeline cost is coming down in '26, we need to keep a level of pricing that is pretty much the same as we had in '25. In terms of costs, the way our inventory accounting works is that we will have to adjust the level of inventory in the first day of the year to the actual pipeline cost that we see in 2026 versus how we exited the year in 2025.

儘管管道成本在 2026 年有所下降，但我們需要保持與 2025 年基本相同的價格水準。就成本而言，我們的庫存會計核算方式是，我們將不得不調整年初第一天的庫存水平，使其與 2026 年的實際管道成本（與 2025 年末的成本相比）保持一致。

And that is a onetime adjustment that takes place on the inventory, and that is causing in the first two quarters, but predominantly in Q1, an impact that is at $0.5 billion. And that gives you an idea of the dislocation of cost that we see throughout the two years. So in terms of top line, I would say, in chocolate specifically, flat pricing in terms of volume, some implications as there is cocoa disruption -- as there is customer disruption in Europe.

這是對庫存進行的一次性調整，這將在前兩個季度，特別是第一季度，造成 5 億美元的影響。這就讓你對我們這兩年來所看到的成本錯置情況有所了解。所以就營收而言，具體到巧克力產業，我認為，銷售方面價格持平，由於可可供應中斷，歐洲的客戶也受到影響，這會帶來一些影響。

And in terms of cost, higher cost in the first half versus the second half. And so as we move through the year, I think you're going to see a sequential improvement of volume and revenue, but most importantly, in terms of EBIT phasing. In all of these investments in A&C is equally spaced throughout the quarter. So no material changes, I would say, quarter-on-quarter in absolute terms of our A&C investment.

就成本而言，上半年的成本高於下半年。因此，隨著時間的推移，我認為你會看到銷售和收入逐步改善，但最重要的是，息稅前利潤也會逐漸提高。A&C 的所有這些投資都均勻地分佈在整個季度中。因此，就我們的A&C投資的絕對值而言，我認為本季沒有實質變化。

Great. And Dirk, maybe to pivot to North America. I mean, I know it continues to kind of be a difficult operating environment. Volume trends are still a bit weak. There's a view maybe that this is more K-shaped or cyclical tied versus structural. And maybe in the context of just one of your largest peers announcing price cuts today in the snacking category.

偉大的。而德克，或許會轉戰北美。我的意思是，我知道現在的經營環境依然比較艱難。成交量趨勢依然有些疲軟。有人認為，這更像是 K 形或週期性聯繫，而不是結構性聯繫。或許就在今天，你的一家大型同行宣布零食類產品降價的背景下。

I would just love to get your perspective on the North American market, where you stand on that debate? And again, on the pricing front, kind of what the go-forward actions might look like there?

我很想了解您對北美市場的看法，您在這個問題上的立場是什麼？那麼，在定價方面，未來的舉措可能會是什麼樣的呢？

Okay, Peter. Well, first of all, I think the thing in North America is the consumer. The consumer confidence is near historic low. They're worried about overall affordability. They are fed up with the price increases. They don't feel good about their personal economic outlook. They doubt about job security. So what we are seeing is that the average shopping basket of the consumer in the US, whether you're in the higher or in the lower social economic classes has not increased for the last two, three-years.

好的，彼得。首先，我認為北美的關鍵在於消費者。消費者信心接近歷史低點。他們擔心整體的負擔能力。他們對物價上漲感到厭煩。他們對自己的個人經濟前景感到悲觀。他們對工作保障感到擔憂。因此，我們看到的是，在過去兩三年裡，美國消費者的平均購物籃商品數量，無論其社會經濟地位高低，都沒有增加。

Within that basket, they have spent more money on the basics, milk, meat, bread and so on. And as a consequence, snacking is being affected. And you can see that in all of the snacking categories. You talked about the K-shaped economy. There is clearly a group of consumers, the more wealthy consumers that do spend differently in the sense that you can see that things like premium and better-for-you are growing within the snacking markets, also some on the go.

在這個消費籃裡，他們把更多的錢花在了基本生活必需品上，像是牛奶、肉、麵包等等。因此，零食消費也受到了影響。這一點在所有零食類別中都能反映出來。你談到了K型經濟。顯然有一部分消費者，尤其是比較富裕的消費者，他們的消費方式有所不同，你可以看到，高端和更健康的零食市場正在成長，一些零食也越來越受歡迎。

But the bulk of the consumers, they are really into value seeking. So what they do is they look for lower unit prices. They look for deals. If they have a bit more money, they will look for bulk packs or multipacks. And they also shift channels from food and mass into value, club and online. As you said, the biscuit category is showing a soft volume. It was the last three-months, it's down 4% in volume, 3% for the year '25.

但絕大多數消費者都非常注重性價比。所以他們會尋找單價更低的產品。他們尋找划算的交易。如果他們手邊寬裕一些，就會購買大包裝或多件裝。他們還將銷售通路從食品和大眾市場轉向平價商品、會員店和線上通路。如你所說，餅乾品類的銷售表現疲軟。過去三個月，銷量下降了 4%，2025 年全年下降了 3%。

So overall, we don't necessarily see an immediate change as it relates to where the consumer is. And as a consequence, we need to adapt to these circumstances. So what do we do? We are going to invest more to drive awareness. We see the same as in chocolate in Europe, penetration of our brands is not decreasing or sometimes just a little bit. It's largely the frequency and the quantity bought that is being affected.

所以總的來說，我們並不認為消費者所在地區會立即改變。因此，我們需要適應這些情況。那我們該怎麼辦？我們將加大投入以提高公眾意識。我們看到的情況與歐洲的巧克力市場類似，我們品牌的滲透率並沒有下降，有時甚至只是稍微下降。受影響最大的主要是購買頻率和購買數量。

So we're going to invest in improving that frequency and the quantity bought. We're going to use PPA to address some of the affordability. We are expanding in some of these channels that I was mentioning. We are under-indexed, so we are pushing harder and we are increasing our market share. And we have offerings that are doing well.

因此，我們將加大投入，提高購買頻率和購買數量。我們將利用購電協議（PPA）來解決部分價格承受能力問題。我們正在拓展我剛才提到的一些管道。我們的市佔率被低估了，所以我們正在加倍努力，提高市場佔有率。我們有一些產品銷售情況良好。

I'm thinking about a perfect bar, which is a protein offer or a Tate, a premium biscuit, OREO premium in chocolates or BUILDERS bar in the CLIF range, which is also protein. They are all doing well, growing double digits. So we're going to push harder on those brands. And then lastly, I would say, we are activating a supply chain program, which is meant to run over the next three, four-years.

我在想一款完美的能量棒，它既能提供蛋白質，又能像 Tate 高級餅乾、OREO 高級巧克力，或者 CLIF 系列的 BUILDERS 能量棒（它也是蛋白質棒）。它們都發展良好，並實現了兩位數的成長。所以我們將加強推廣這些品牌。最後，我想說的是，我們正在啟動一項供應鏈計劃，該計劃將在未來三到四年內實施。

It's largely to modernize our operations, but it also will improve our efficiency and our costs. It will give us more network flexibility. So overall, I would say we are entering a year in North America. We are stronger in the sense that we will do more investments that we've understood better what works and what doesn't work and that we have quite an extensive plan on things we want to do.

這主要是為了營運現代化，但同時也將提高效率並降低成本。這將賦予我們更大的網路靈活性。總的來說，我認為我們即將進入北美的新一年。從某種意義上說，我們變得更強大了，因為我們會進行更多投資，我們更了解哪些有效哪些無效，而且我們對想做的事情有一個相當廣泛的計劃。

As it relates to pricing itself, we started off '25 and we're quite aggressive on promotions and on deals, working on price. I have to say it didn't give us a return on our investment. So in the second half of '25, we changed our strategy. We did a lot less promotion and pricing. As a consequence, our price realization went up.

至於定價方面，我們最初定價為 25 美元，並且在促銷和交易方面非常積極，致力於價格策略。不得不說，我們的投資並沒有獲得回報。因此，在 2025 年下半年，我們改變了策略。我們減少了促銷和定價方面的投入。因此，我們的售價上漲了。

And I would say, overall, our P&L improved in North America, but we lost some market share because our volume performance wasn't the same. But overall, I would say that probably was better for us. So the way forward for us is better activations, interest the consumer more, make sure that they feel compelled to buy snacks, our snacks on every shopping trip. But we don't necessarily think that we need to decrease our prices to the magnitude that I heard from another company.

總的來說，我們在北美的損益情況有所改善，但由於銷售表現不如預期，我們失去了一些市佔率。但總的來說，我認為這對我們來說可能會更好。因此，我們未來的發展方向是更好地進行行銷活動，更有效地吸引消費者，確保他們在每次購物時都忍不住購買我們的零食。但我們並不認為我們需要像我從另一家公司聽到的那樣大幅降價。

Megan Clapp, Morgan Stanley.

梅根克拉普，摩根士丹利。

I wanted to just maybe, Luca, follow up on the answer to Pete's first question just to make sure I fully understand kind of the message you're talking about is there are a lot of moving parts with cocoa and pricing. So when you talk about flat chocolate pricing in '26, that's the expectation. Cocoa should be down, I think, significantly.

盧卡，我只是想就皮特的第一個問題再補充一點，以確保我完全理解你所說的信息，即可可和定價有很多變數。所以，當談到 2026 年巧克力價格保持不變時，這就是人們的期望。我認為可可價格應該會大幅下降。

But should we think about the net price/cost relationship embedded in the guide is roughly neutral to the year because of the inventory accounting and the elevated hedges flowing through? Or is it still a net positive? I'm just trying to kind of understand the dynamics there. And then is the idea that if pricing can kind of stabilize in '26, cocoa resets lower in '27. So that's really when the real profit recovery starts to show up?

但是，由於庫存會計處理和較高的避險交易，我們是否應該考慮指南中所體現的淨價/成本關係對全年而言大致是中性的？或者說，這仍然是件好事嗎？我只是想了解其中的運作機制。然後，有人認為，如果價格在 2026 年能夠趨於穩定，那麼可可價格將在 2027 年回落到較低水平。所以真正的獲利復甦就是從那時開始顯現的嗎？

Yes. Thank you, Megan. The idea is to have a neutral to positive balance in chocolate, specifically between cost and pricing. And albeit pricing is not going to move much. As I said, there is an element of cost that was locked for 2026. So in general, you should think about pricing net of cost as slightly positive to neutral for chocolate. That's the way we have prepared the plan.

是的。謝謝你，梅根。其理念是使巧克力產業，特別是成本和定價之間，達到中性或積極的平衡。儘管價格不會有太大變動。正如我所說，有一部分成本已經鎖定到 2026 年。因此，總的來說，對於巧克力而言，扣除成本後的淨定價應該略微有利或持平。這就是我們制定計劃的方式。

Okay. That's super helpful. And then just to come back to the organic sales outlook, 0% to 2%. You've got some nice momentum in emerging markets. I think finished the year around high single digits. So is that the expectation for 2026 that emerging markets can kind of be in that high single-digit range? And if so, I think mathematically would imply kind of developed markets decline in the low to mid-single-digit range. So is that math fair? And just any way to kind of think about the US versus Europe in relation to that?

好的。這太有幫助了。然後，再回到有機銷售前景，0% 到 2%。你們在新興市場發展勢頭良好。我認為年底的業績大概在個位數高點。所以，2026 年新興市場經濟成長率的預期是能夠達到較高的個位數嗎？如果是這樣，我認為從數學角度來看，這意味著已開發市場將出現個位數低至中等幅度的下滑。那麼，這樣的數學計算公平嗎？那麼，有沒有什麼方法可以思考美國與歐洲在這方面的關係呢？

The emerging markets will continue growing. And hopefully, they will do even better than what is embedded, quite frankly, in the guidance. We are happy with the momentum we are seeing in both Latin America and EMEA now. In both segments, we have a meaningful presence in chocolate. And if you look at how much we price, that contribution is not going to be there for 2026.

新興市場將持續成長。希望他們能做得比指導方針中規定的還要好。我們對目前在拉丁美洲和歐洲、中東及非洲地區看到的成長動能感到滿意。在巧克力領域，我們在這兩個細分市場中都佔有重要的地位。如果你看看我們的定價方式，你會發現到 2026 年，這筆貢獻將無法實現。

But on the flip side, there should be less elasticity. Now I would say majority of the volume declines that you see, particularly in EMEA, but also in Latin America are due to PPA. So the volume momentum is really there when you take out the PPA impact. The idea for 2026 is, again, to grow this market pretty much at the same level, but there will be a little bit less contribution from pricing and more contribution from volume mix.

但另一方面，彈性應該較小。現在我認為，你看到的銷量下降大部分，尤其是在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，以及拉丁美洲，都是由於購買力平價協議（PPA）造成的。所以，如果排除購電協議的影響，成交量成長動能確實存在。2026 年的計劃仍然是保持市場成長基本上與之前相同水平，但價格因素的貢獻會略有減少，而銷售組合的貢獻會略有增加。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可·拉弗里，派珀·桑德勒。

You touched on the advertising spend as a tailwind in 4Q, but you've talked about stepping up investments next year. Can you give a sense of order of magnitude? And would -- would 2026 be basically back to normal? Is there any kind of push beyond that? How do we think about what kind of investment level you've got in store for the year?

您提到第四季廣告支出是推動績效成長的因素，但您也說過明年將加強投資。能大概估算一下數量級嗎？那麼，2026年一切會基本上恢復正常嗎？除此之外還有其他推力嗎？我們該如何看待您今年的投資計畫？

So Michael, if you look at the SG&A line, it was clearly down year-on-year '25 on '24. One of the drivers there is continued overhead savings, but we had to tap a little bit into A&C too. We said many times that we didn't touch the working media line, but we touched the non-working media predominantly. The idea is to continue with lower nonworking media, but to clearly step up in the working part.

所以邁克爾，如果你看一下銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）這一項，很明顯，2025 年的 SG&A 費用比 2024 年下降了。其中一個驅動因素是持續節省營運成本，但我們也不得不從A&C獲得一些資金。我們多次說過我們沒有觸碰工作媒體熱線，但我們主要觸碰的是非工作媒體。我們的想法是繼續降低非工作媒體的投入，但要大幅提高工作媒體的投入。

And if you look over a couple of years between '24 and '26, we will more than recover what we had to pull back in '25 into the overall line. On the other part of SG&A, I will go the overhead part, we will continue with cost savings, but we will have to step up a little bit the annual incentive plan. So all in all, the investments in A&C over two-years, I think it's going to be substantial. If you take '24 to '26, it's up quite meaningfully.

如果你看看 2024 年到 2026 年這幾年，我們將會比 2025 年不得不從整體上收回的份額還要多。關於銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）的另一部分，我會談到管理費用部分，我們將繼續節省成本，但我們必須稍微提高年度激勵計劃。總而言之，我認為A&C在未來兩年內的投資將是巨大的。如果以 2024 年到 2026 年為界，漲幅相當顯著。

Okay. That's helpful. And just back to emerging markets, maybe touch on that, specifically maybe LatAm, it's down now a couple of years. What can you do to grow volumes there? And can you give any sense maybe of what kind of assumptions would be baked into the guidance?

好的。那很有幫助。回到新興市場，或許可以稍微談談，特別是拉丁美洲，它已經衰退了好幾年了。如何才能提高那裡的交易量？您能否簡要說明一下，該指南中會包含哪些假設？

Look, I think the simple answer there is that in LatAm, there is Argentina, which went through quite a bit of economic turmoil, and there were material issues in the country. And on top of that, we decided to protect working capital and not to extend payment terms to anybody. And we did quite, I believe, a good work in keeping the business in accordance to our operating principles that are protect cash in Argentina and bring the cash home.

我認為簡單的答案是，在拉丁美洲，有阿根廷，它經歷了相當多的經濟動盪，而且該國存在物質問題。除此之外，我們也決定保護營運資金，不向任何人延長付款期限。我認為，我們在保持業務符合我們的經營原則方面做得相當不錯，這些原則是保護阿根廷的現金並將現金帶回家。

That's what we did. When you strip out Argentina and you look around, clearly, Brazil got a little bit impacted by elasticity in chocolate, but Brazil is one of the best performing markets that we have, top and bottom line. They did an amazing job in terms of PPA and minimizing elasticity. We are growing quite well outside of chocolate. If you look at Mexico, there was a big comeback.

我們就是這麼做的。如果剔除阿根廷市場，放眼全球，很明顯，巴西市場受到了巧克力市場彈性波動的影響，但巴西仍然是我們表現最好的市場之一，無論從營收或利潤來看都是如此。他們在採購價格協議 (PPA) 和降低彈性方面做得非常出色。我們在巧克力以外的業務發展得相當不錯。看看墨西哥，他們已經強勢反彈了。

The country is now in growth territory and doing fairly well. And so the two major markets in LatAm are doing quite well. It is Argentina masking a little bit the performance of the region.

該國目前正處於增長期，發展勢頭良好。因此，拉丁美洲的兩大主要市場表現都相當不錯。這是阿根廷在一定程度上掩蓋了該地區的真實表現。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

克里斯凱裡，富國證券。

I wanted to start with this comment on the company's goal to demonstrate significant volume trajectory change over the course of 2026. Can you help us understand regionally where that change might be occurring, some of the key drivers. For example, the channel strategies that you have in North America, are those expected to be material?

我想先就該公司在 2026 年實現銷售軌跡顯著變化的目標發表一下評論。您能否幫助我們了解這種變化可能發生在哪些地區，以及一些關鍵驅動因素？例如，你們在北美的渠道策略預計會產生實質影響嗎？

European comps in Europe get quite a bit easier into the back half of the year. You mentioned the piece with PPA impacting emerging market volumes a touch and elasticities getting better. Just give us a sense of what significant volume trajectory improvement looks like and contextualizing a bit where that's coming from and why?

歐洲的比賽在下半年會變得容易得多。你提到了PPA對新興市場交易量有一定影響，以及彈性正在改善。請您簡單描述一下銷售量大幅成長的趨勢，並說明成長的來源和原因？

Yes. I mean, if I go through the regions, we clearly expect EMEA overall, if you look at how we're doing in India, in Australia, China coming back. So we see EMEA as being a big source of volume growth for us. So that's certainly a region that -- where we will see some good performance. If we then look to Latin America, as Luca was saying, there also, we think that it's going to be quite a good year for us.

是的。我的意思是，如果我逐個地區來看，我們顯然對 EMEA 整體市場抱有很高的期望，看看我們在印度、澳洲和中國的表現就知道了，這些國家正在復甦。因此，我們認為歐洲、中東和非洲地區是我們銷售成長的重要來源。所以，這無疑是一個我們將會看到一些好表現的地區。如果再看看拉丁美洲，正如盧卡所說，我們認為那裡也將是相當不錯的一年。

North America, as I was explaining, the consumer confidence isn't there. The biscuit category is soft. We expect that the volume decline that you see in the category of 4% will ease, but we are not exactly counting on volume growth in North America. And then in Europe, what I expect there is that -- first of all, in our other categories, we had a pretty good year already in '25. We expect that to continue.

正如我剛才解釋的那樣，北美地區的消費者信心不足。餅乾屬於軟餅乾。我們預計您看到的 4% 的銷量下滑趨勢將會緩解，但我們並不指望北美地區的銷量會成長。然後在歐洲，我預計——首先，在我們其他類別中，我們在 2025 年已經取得了相當不錯的成績。我們預計這種情況會持續下去。

I'm talking about biscuits, cakes and pastries and meals. And in chocolate, the price increase, as we discussed, is going to ease. In fact, we are readjusting some of our pricing in certain markets. So all that, we expect also will have a positive effect on volumes as compared to '25. So hopefully, that gives you an idea where the volume growth is going to come from.

我指的是餅乾、蛋糕、糕點和餐點。正如我們之前討論過的，巧克力價格上漲的趨勢將會放緩。事實上，我們正​​在對某些市場的部分定價進行調整。因此，我們預計所有這些因素也將對銷售產生正面影響，與 2025 年相比。希望這能讓你了解銷售成長將來自哪裡。

The phasing during the year is as these different activities come to bear, we expect that gradually to be better and also the lapping effect will help us over the year.

隨著這些不同活動的發展，一年中的各個階段都會逐步推進，我們預期情況會逐漸好轉，而且疊加效應也會在一年中幫助我們。

That's great. And I know it's been broached a bit, but just to confirm, as we get into 2027 and really, I'm asking just because it was included in the prepared remarks, can you give us a sense of the investments that will have been lapped going into 2027? Should we expect the media investment to be done in '26, the rebasing of media, the rebasing of comp, the investments into channel expansion strategy such that going into 2027.

那太棒了。我知道這個問題已經被稍微提及過，但為了確認一下，隨著我們進入 2027 年，我問這個問題是因為它包含在準備好的發言稿中，您能否讓我們了解一下到 2027 年將有哪些投資會被擱置？我們是否應該預期媒體投資將在 2026 年完成，媒體的重新定位，競爭對手的重新定位，以及對通路擴張策略的投資，以便進入 2027 年。

We're really just thinking about an improved complexion of the top line gross margins, getting a bit more life against a lower cocoa price and more operating leverage to SG&A? Or is there multiyear investments that will be continuing to come into the model as we get into 2027? I realize we may get more information on this at CAGNY, but again, it was in the prepared remarks. So I figured I'd get a bit more context on that.

我們真正考慮的是如何改善營收毛利率，在可可價格走低的情況下爭取更多生存時間，以及如何更好地利用營運槓桿來降低銷售、管理及行政費用？或者，隨著我們進入 2027 年，是否會有多年期投資繼續納入該模式？我知道我們可能會在 CAGNY 會議上獲得更多相關信息，但再次強調，這在準備好的發言稿中已經提到了。所以我決定多了解一些相關資訊。

Yes. So as we explained, so in '26, we are taking a step forward and significantly increase our investments in working media as compared to '25. Taking into account that '25, we took a step down largely in nonworking media, but also a little bit in working media. For '27, we expect that we will do another step-up in investments. We believe that we have to continue to invest in our brands.

是的。正如我們所解釋的那樣，在 2026 年，我們將向前邁進一步，與 2025 年相比，我們將大幅增加對媒體工作的投資。考慮到 2025 年，我們在非工作媒體方面大幅下滑，工作媒體方面也有所下滑。2027年，我們預計將進一步加大投資力度。我們認為必須繼續投資我們的品牌。

The opportunity is big, and we want to drive volume growth because that needs to be the first base of growth for the company, combined with, hopefully, over time, a little bit of pricing. So that's our thinking. As it relates to margins, we feel that overall, from a commodity perspective that things will ease, particularly in cocoa.

機會很大，我們希望推動銷售成長，因為這必須是公司成長的第一基礎，同時，希望隨著時間的推移，價格也能提高。這就是我們的想法。就利潤率而言，我們認為從大宗商品的角度來看，情況總體上會有所緩解，尤其是可可。

And so we can see a significant uplift in our chocolate margins in '27, which will be divided by reinvesting part of it and part flowing to the bottom line. And so we will -- we are aiming for a strong EPS growth in '27. But at the same time, we want to keep on investing in our brands. So we are not planning to flow everything to the bottom line, if that would be the thinking.

因此，我們可以看到 2027 年巧克力利潤率大幅提升，其中一部分將用於再投資，另一部分將計入利潤。所以我們會努力實現——我們的目標是在 2027 年實現強勁的每股盈餘成長。但同時，我們希望繼續投資我們的品牌。所以，如果按照這種想法來，我們並不打算把所有成本都計入利潤。

David Palmer, Evercore ISI.

David Palmer，Evercore ISI。

Sort of a big picture question on European chocolate in your division there. I wonder how are you thinking about the path to a profitability recovery there to sort of a pre-'25 levels that we saw for a few years. If you think that is even the norm that where we saw profitability there? And I wonder with prices having come down, is '27 the beginning of a recovery? And what -- is there a path back to pre-'25 levels of profitability? And how do you think that would play out? And I have a follow-up.

你們部門對歐洲巧克力有個比較宏觀的了解。我想知道您如何看待該地區盈利能力恢復到 2025 年之前幾年的水平。如果你認為我們之前看到的獲利情況就是正常現象的話？我想知道，隨著價格下降，2027 年是否是復甦的開始？那麼，是否有可能恢復到 2025 年之前的獲利水準？你覺得事情會如何發展？我還有一個後續問題。

So the idea, David, is to go back to the profit pool as it used to be and hopefully, even a little bit better because remember, we really have growth opportunities even in Europe. And quite frankly, we still have to invest quite a bit of A&C and expand both in the developed part of Europe, but also in the developing part of Europe. We still have plenty of opportunities in terms of price points, channel segment within chocolate.

所以，大衛，我們的想法是恢復到以前的利潤水平，並希望還能做得更好一些，因為記住，即使在歐洲，我們也確實有很多成長機會。坦白說，我們仍然需要在航空航太領域投入大量資金，並在歐洲已開發地區和發展中地區都擴張。在巧克力產品的價格定位和通路細分方面，我們仍然有很多機會。

And our goal is to grow the chocolate business in Europe after the meaningful price increases we have taken in '25. If cocoa ranges at around 3,000, our goal is to get into '27 with a much improved situation and to really be able to get back to the all profit pool. And if we have to make some selective price investments, we will make them.

我們的目標是在 2025 年大幅提價之後，發展歐洲的巧克力業務。如果可可價格在 3000 美元左右，我們的目標是到 2027 年情況會好轉很多，並且真正能夠恢復全部利潤。如果我們必須進行一些有選擇的價格投資，我們就會進行。

I think if you look at the way the '26 plan is structured in Europe, there are more promotions. We are going to offer more value to some of the consumers. And all in all, I think while '26 can be a new base, '27 can really be a step change for our chocolate market overall around the world, including Europe.

我認為，如果你看看歐洲的「26計畫」的結構，你會發現促銷活動更多。我們將為部分消費者提供更多價值。總而言之，我認為雖然 2026 年可以成為一個新的起點，但 2027 年對於我們全球（包括歐洲）的巧克力市場來說，確實可能是一個變革性的飛躍。

Are there any sort of milestones this year that will -- that you're going to be really watching for, whether it's perhaps how you see the retailer brand pricing works or your own price elasticity levels remaining better than a certain threshold. I mean what are some things that you're going to be looking for and that we could even look for in the data?

今年有哪些里程碑式的事件是您會特別關注的，例如零售商自有品牌定價的運作方式，或者您自己的價格彈性水平能否保持在某個門檻以上。我的意思是，你們會尋找哪些方面，或者我們可以從數據中尋找哪些方面？

It is potential competitive reaction, as we said a couple of times already.

正如我們之前多次提到的，這是一種潛在的競爭反應。

Scott Marks, Jefferies.

斯科特馬克斯，傑富瑞集團。

First one for me. I don't believe I've heard any discussion thus far about GLP-1 and some of the more recent developments in that market, especially with some of the newer oral medications. So just wondering if you can share a bit about how you're thinking about that, and what you're expecting on that front for this year and beyond?

這是我的第一個。我至今還沒有聽到任何關於 GLP-1 以及該市場一些最新進展的討論，尤其是一些新的口服藥物。所以，我想問您能否分享一下您對此的看法，以及您對今年及未來幾年這方面的預期？

Yes. Well, we model it out every quarter basically based on the latest information. And we have noted the fact that the price of some of it has come down. We have noted that there oral being approved. We've taken into account the estimates as it relates to that. And I have to say that up to our opinion, that will not significantly change the estimates that we've had so far.

是的。嗯，我們基本上每個季度都會根據最新資訊進行建模。我們注意到，其中一些商品的價格已經下降了。我們注意到口服藥物已被批准。我們已經將相關的估算結果納入考量。我必須說，就我們目前的看法而言，這不會對我們迄今為止的估計產生重大影響。

And the estimates we had so far, first of all, we do not see a short-term impact on our business, because there is a very modest adoption rate right now and also the calorie reduction is relatively benign that we see. But if we expand 10-years and we take an adoption rate in the US, which would be somewhere between 10% and 20% and even then, we do not see a significant effect on our overall business.

根據我們目前的估計，首先，我們認為短期內不會對我們的業務產生影響，因為目前的採用率非常低，而且我們看到的卡路里減少的影響也相對溫和。但如果我們把時間延長 10 年，假設美國的採用率在 10% 到 20% 之間，即使如此，我們也沒有看到對我們的整體業務產生重大影響。

We believe that over that period of time, it could have a 0.5% to 1.5% effect on our overall volumes. So almost negligible over a period of 10-years. So at this stage, I can't say that we feel that it is having a major impact on our business.

我們認為，在此期間，這可能會對我們的整體銷售產生 0.5% 至 1.5% 的影響。因此，在10年的時間跨度內，影響幾乎可以忽略不計。所以現階段，我不能說我們覺得它對我們的業務產生了重大影響。

Appreciate the color there. Maybe next question for me. You made some comments in the prepared remarks about continued investments in cocoa growing regions maybe outside of West Africa. Just wondering if you can share an update on some of those investments and how you're thinking about those moving forward relative to kind of the traditional cocoa growing regions.

欣賞那裡的色彩。也許下一個問題該問我了。您在準備好的演講稿中提到了一些關於繼續投資可可種植區（可能在西非以外）的評論。我想了解您能否分享這些投資的最新進展，以及您如何看待這些投資相對於傳統可可種植區的未來發展。

Yes. I think it's just better from an overall long-term risk management perspective that we balance our supply of cocoa into different geographical regions. Those regions are largely Latin America, mainly and also a little bit in Asia in places like India and Indonesia. In Latin America, the countries that are stepping up are largely Ecuador and Brazil, different farming models.

是的。我認為從長遠風險管理的角度來看，平衡不同地理區域的可可供應是更好的選擇。這些地區主要指拉丁美洲，也包括亞洲的一些地方，例如印度和印尼。在拉丁美洲，正在積極推動農業發展的國家主要是厄瓜多和巴西，它們採用的是不同的農業模式。

In Brazil, we see some large farms coming up, and we are having long-term agreements with them to supply us. And then in Ecuador, it's smaller farmers, but who are getting together, and we see those countries significantly increase their output. And so over time, that might not give the best cocoa price, but we think the current price that we see should be sustainable.

在巴西，我們看到一些大型農場正在崛起，我們正在與他們簽訂長期協議，由他們向我們供貨。而在厄瓜多爾，雖然農民規模較小，但他們聯合起來，我們看到這些國家的產量顯著提高。因此，從長遠來看，這可能無法帶來最佳的可可價格，但我們認為目前的價格應該是可持續的。

But it will significantly decrease the risk of events like a bad crop or a disease that affects the crop in a country that is going to have a big impact on the overall cocoa market as we currently see, whereby Ghana and Ivory Coast have close to 60%, 65% of the global cocoa supply. The other one I would say that is worthwhile is that I think over time, there will be more and more lab-grown cocoa that will become available, not GMO, but lab grown.

但這將大大降低作物歉收或疾病等事件發生的風險，這些事件會影響到對整個可可市場產生重大影響的國家，正如我們目前所看到的，加納和科特迪瓦佔全球可可供應量的近 60% 和 65%。我覺得另一點值得一提的是，隨著時間的推移，將會有越來越多的實驗室培育的可可豆上市，它們不是基因改造的，而是實驗室培育的。

And we think that there will be an interest from the European Commission and the US government to approve that sort of cocoa. Why? Because it has significant beneficial effect in the sense that all the negatives that surround the cocoa supply chain would not be there as it relates to climate and other social effects. So in that sense, that's also a direction that we are investing in and supporting.

我們認為歐盟委員會和美國政府會對批准這種可可豆感興趣。為什麼？因為它具有顯著的正面作用，可以消除可可供應鏈中與氣候和其他社會影響相關的所有負面影響。所以從這個意義上講，這也是我們正在投資和支持的方向。

Thank you. I think that was the last question for today. I would like to thank you for your attention. I would like to reiterate the fact that we will be going deeper in CAGNY into the European chocolate situation and give you the details on how we are planning to tackle it. We'll also go deeper in our North American situation and what our plans are there, and we will cover the emerging markets and of course, our financial outlook.

謝謝。我想這是今天最後一個問題了。謝謝大家的關注。我想重申，我們將在 CAGNY 會議上深入探討歐洲巧克力市場現狀，並向大家詳細介紹我們計劃如何應對這個問題。我們也將深入探討我們在北美的情況和計劃，並介紹新興市場以及我們的財務前景。

So we're looking forward to see you there to spend some more time explaining our business to you. Thank you.

所以我們期待在那裡見到您，並花更多時間向您介紹我們的業務。謝謝。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您抽空參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。