億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Please stand by. Your program is about to begin. If you need assistance during your conference today, please press 0. Good day and welcome to the Mondelez International 2025 second quarter earnings question and answer session. (Operator Instructions)

請稍候。您的程式即將開始。如果您在今天的會議期間需要協助，請按 0。大家好，歡迎參加億滋國際 2025 年第二季財報問答環節。（操作員指示）

On our, on today's call are Dirk Van De Put, Chairman and CEO; Luca Zaramella, CFO, and Shep Dunlap, SVP of Investor Relations. Earlier this afternoon, the company posted a press release and prepared remarks, both of which are available on its website.

參加我們今天電話會議的有董事長兼執行長 Dirk Van De Put、財務長 Luca Zaramella 和投資者關係高級副總裁 Shep Dunlap。今天下午早些時候，該公司發布了一份新聞稿和準備好的發言稿，均可在其網站上查閱。

During this call, the company will make forward-looking statements about performance. These statements are based on how the company sees things today. Actual results may differ materially due to the risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for more details on forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，本公司將對業績做出前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於公司目前對事物的看法。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能存在重大差異。有關前瞻性陳述的更多詳細信息，請參閱公司 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的警示聲明和風險因素。

As the company discusses results today, unless noted as reported, it will be referencing non-GAAP financial measures which adjust for certain items included in the company's GAAP results.

當公司今天討論業績時，除非另有說明，否則將參考非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標會根據公司 GAAP 業績中包含的某些項目進行調整。

In addition, the company provides year over year growth on a constant currency basis unless otherwise noted. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation within the company's earnings release at the back of the slide presentation.

此外，除非另有說明，該公司提供的年成長率是基於固定匯率計算的。您可以在投影片簡報的背面的公司收益報告中找到可比較的 GAAP 指標以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的對帳。

Andrew Lazar, Barclays Bank PLC

巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾

Great. Thanks very much and thanks also for putting out the prepared remarks this time this time around. Very helpful. Dirk, it'd be great if maybe you could do a brief walk through of the key geographies and how you see it all playing out in the second half.

偉大的。非常感謝，也感謝您這次發表的準備好的發言。非常有幫助。德克，如果你能簡單介紹一下主要地理位置以及你對下半年情勢發展的看法，那就太好了。

And then Luca, given the additional weakness in North America, what incremental actions can the company take, whether they be on the cost side or maybe more importantly on the demand driving side to accelerate growth there even in the context of a weaker category? Thanks so much.

然後盧卡，考慮到北美市場的進一步疲軟，公司可以採取哪些漸進式行動，無論是在成本方面，還是更重要的是在需求驅動方面，以加速北美市場的成長，即使在產品類別較弱的情況下？非常感謝。

Thanks, Andrew. Yeah, maybe quickly, overall, we think the Q2 results are quite good. We had some good pricing. If you discount for the downsizing, we're flattish as it relates to volume mix, and our bottom line is slightly better than expected.

謝謝，安德魯。是的，也許很快，總的來說，我們認為第二季的結果相當不錯。我們有一些不錯的定價。如果不考慮規模縮小的影響，我們的銷售組合將保持平穩，而我們的底線略好於預期。

I think what also is clear is that we have very good global balance in the sense that we see a continued weakness in North America, but we had a strong quarter in the rest of the world, and, since our sales are well balanced between the different continents that really helps us.

我認為同樣清楚的是，我們擁有非常好的全球平衡，因為我們看到北美持續疲軟，但我們在世界其他地區表現強勁，而且由於我們的銷售額在各大洲之間保持良好平衡，這對我們確實有幫助。

The other one that's important for us is that chocolate and the significant pricing increases and RGM actions that we've done are playing out in line with expectations, so that's good. Our categories are showing continued strength, and we are maintaining our full year outlook. So overall, we feel good about the quarter.

對我們來說另一件重要的事情是巧克力和大幅提價以及我們採取的 RGM 行動都符合預期，所以這很好。我們的產品類別持續表現強勁，我們維持全年展望。總體而言，我們對本季感到滿意。

If I go a little bit around the world, maybe starting in Europe, a good quarter in Europe, with good numbers, strong share gains, clearly the business is very resilient. The consumer is more confident in Europe, still quite fragile and frugal spending, but snacking continues to outpace food, and overall, I would say, we feel pretty good about our European business.

如果我環顧世界，也許從歐洲開始，歐洲一個季度的業績不錯，業績良好，份額強勁增長，顯然業務非常有彈性。歐洲的消費者信心有所提升，支出仍然相當脆弱和節儉，但零食消費仍然超過食品消費，總的來說，我想說，我們對我們的歐洲業務感覺相當良好。

Consumers are not exactly bullish, but, and they're focused on essentials, but they keep on buying our category even despite the significant price increases that we have to do in chocolate. If I go to the US, a little bit more of a difficult situation there. The, there's a lot of consumer anxiety. They look at a quite uncertain outlook as it relates to their personal finances, job expectations, inflation.

消費者並不完全樂觀，但他們關注的是必需品，儘管我們的巧克力價格大幅上漲，但他們仍繼續購買我們的產品。如果我去美國，那裡的情況會更困難一些。消費者有很多焦慮情緒。他們對個人財務、工作預期和通貨膨脹的前景十分不確定。

So they tend to focus more on essential on essential items. The size of the basket is getting very important, absolute price points, there's channel shifting going on. There's more promotions and some pack shifting too. So, overall we see a pretty soft biscuits category, probably performing a little bit better than other snacking categories with holding share, but overall the volume is declining.

因此他們傾向於更加關注必需品。購物籃的大小、絕對價格點和通路轉變都變得非常重要。還有更多促銷活動和一些包裝轉移活動。因此，總體而言，我們看到餅乾類別相當柔軟，可能比其他零食類別表現更好一些，佔有一定份額，但總體銷量正在下降。

Switching to the emerging markets, we feel very good, double-digit growth. We have a sustained volume and volume growth. We have very good share gains in Brazil, in India, and Mexico. Consumer confidence is softer in these markets. They are worried about their personal finances, job security, inflation.

轉向新興市場，我們感覺非常好，兩位數的成長。我們擁有持續的銷售和成長。我們在巴西、印度和墨西哥的市場份額都取得了非常好的成長。這些市場的消費者信心較弱。他們擔心個人財務狀況、工作保障和通貨膨脹。

So we see the same channel shifts mainly into bulk and discount in places like China. We also see the pack shift, but emerging markets continue to be an attractive growth engine for us. And if you look at our four major markets, we feel good about China, India, Brazil, Mexico has been softer. But overall I would say clearly a strength this quarter in emerging markets.

因此，我們看到，在中國等地，同樣的管道主要轉向大量銷售和折扣銷售。我們也看到了群體的轉變，但新興市場仍然是我們具有吸引力的成長引擎。如果你看看我們的四大市場，我們對中國、印度、巴西和墨西哥的市場感覺良好，但情況較為疲軟。但整體而言，我認為本季新興市場明顯表現強勁。

Okay. Thank you for your question, Andrew. So as far as North America goes, first of all, there is clearly a consumer sentiment that is impacting consumption across the board. We have no planned for a material rebound of the category in the rest of the year. So I want to reassure you that in the guidance we have given, we have reaffirmed there is no material improvement of the US general sentiment.

好的。謝謝你的提問，安德魯。就北美而言，首先，消費者情緒顯然正在影響整體消費。我們沒有計劃在今年剩餘時間內實現該類別的實質反彈。因此，我想向你們保證，在我們給予的指導中，我們重申美國整體情緒沒有實質改善。

In terms of passing the plan up, what we have done is, first of all, we have announced incremental pricing that is going to take effect in a few weeks in North America. I won't elaborate much, but we are clearly, at a point in time where we see inflation going up. Our cost base is higher, particularly because of Cocoa, but not only.

在推行該計劃方面，我們所做的是，首先，我們宣布了將在幾週後在北美生效的增量定價。我不會詳細闡述，但顯然，我們正處於通貨膨脹上升的時期。我們的成本基礎較高，主要是因為可可，但不是這樣。

And I think that will boost revenue and top line. We have done quite a bit of work in terms of being very selective. Instead of picking the items, for instance, that we are most impacted by Cocoa, we went pretty much across the board with more limited price increases. We had protected certain points where we see consumers going.

我認為這將提高收入和營業額。我們在選擇性方面做了大量工作。例如，我們沒有選擇受可可影響最大的商品，而是全面限制了價格上漲。我們已經保護了我們看到消費者去往的某些點。

We also had protected specific formats that consumers favor in during their buying habits. We have a plan that aims at boosting productivity in the second part of the year and, the team has done a very good job in terms of ensuring cost control and I think you're going to see a rebound of the North American profitability, particularly in in Q4.

我們也保護了消費者在購買習慣中喜歡的特定格式。我們有一個計劃，旨在提高今年下半年的生產力，團隊在確保成本控制方面做得非常好，我認為你會看到北美盈利能力的反彈，特別是在第四季度。

The team continues to pursue incremental opportunities, particularly in alternate channels. We mentioned a few times that our shared gains in channels like Club and dollar, in, and dollar and value, they are clearly, outstanding, and we have again the opportunity to get to our fair share or closer to our fair share in those alternate channels.

團隊繼續尋求增量機會，特別是在替代管道。我們多次提到，我們在俱樂部和美元、美元和價值等管道上的共同收益顯然非常突出，而且我們再次有機會在這些替代管道上獲得或接近我們的公平份額。

So quite a bit of actions that are planned for the second half, but again we are not putting out wishful thinking in terms of category, rebounds, etc. I think it is a fair assumption and safe one.

因此，我們計劃在下半年採取相當多的行動，但我們不會在類別、籃板等方面提出一廂情願的想法。我認為這是一個合理且安全的假設。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America

彼得‧加爾博（Peter Galbo），美國銀行

Hey, good afternoon, Dirk and Luca. Thanks for the question. I wanted maybe to put a finer point on the previous question, particularly around the lack of change in guidance, for the second half, clearly you had a strong delivery on the first half.

嘿，下午好，德克和盧卡。謝謝你的提問。我想更詳細地回答上一個問題，特別是關於下半年指導方針缺乏變化的問題，顯然您在上半年的表現很出色。

So, Dirk, maybe you can just put a bit of a finer point on the puts and takes in the second half. It seems like, maybe the US is a bit weaker than you thought, but then there's other pieces that are holding it up. Any other considerations that we should really think about, as we contemplate that.

所以，德克，也許你可以對下半場的投入和收穫進行更細緻的闡述。看起來，美國可能比你想像的要弱一些，但還有其他因素支撐著它。當我們考慮這一點時，我們也應該認真考慮其他因素。

Yeah, so, yeah, we're trying to be vigilant and make sure that we can execute against our agenda. I think that we have accounted in our outlook for the tougher areas as Luca was pointing out. So, the ones that we are keeping an eye on, first one would be chocolate. What we've seen in the chocolate in Europe is a very good Easter. We executed well in our RGM and pricing strategy, that's in the market.

是的，所以，是的，我們正在努力保持警惕，確保我們能夠執行我們的議程。我認為，正如盧卡所指出的，我們已經在展望中考慮了較為困難的領域。因此，我們關注的首先是巧克力。我們在歐洲的巧克力中看到的是一個非常好的復活節。我們的 RGM 和定價策略在市場上表現良好。

Then in June and July, there was quite a heat wave in Europe and so volumes were lower than expected. In the last two weeks, the temperature has gone down, and we see the volumes come back. So we are quite vigilant on chocolate elasticity for the second half of the year, but it's difficult to read at this stage with this heat wave heat wave in Europe.

隨後在六月和七月，歐洲出現了相當嚴重的熱浪，因此產量低於預期。在過去的兩周里，氣溫下降了，產量也回升了。因此，我們對下半年巧克力的彈性非常警惕，但由於歐洲的熱浪，現階段很難解讀。

As it relates to the US, we really don't see an immediate change. If anything, I think the consumer will see the full effect of the tariffs in the second half, and so we will see where the consumer confidence and the consumer spending will go.

就美國而言，我們確實沒有看到立即的變化。如果有的話，我認為消費者將在下半年看到關稅的全部影響，因此我們將看到消費者信心和消費者支出將走向何方。

And so we have to be careful of that. And I would say those are the two big factors that make us keep our current outlook. There, like Luca said, we've included, I think a realistic view of what is going to happen in those two, and that seems at this stage for me the best stance that we can take.

所以我們必須小心這一點。我想說，這是讓我們保持當前觀點的兩個重要因素。正如盧卡所說，我們已經包含了對這兩個國家未來將會發生什麼的現實看法，在我看來，這是現階段我們可以採取的最佳立場。

Okay, thanks for that and Luca, maybe just as a follow up, there's obviously been a lot of discussion around, the move in cocoa and cocoa butter in particular, which I think has moved in a pretty favorable direction. So maybe you could just talk about how we should extrapolate that, how you're thinking about it as you begin to contemplate hedging for '26. Thanks very much.

好的，謝謝你，盧卡，也許只是作為後續問題，顯然已經有很多關於可可和可可脂的討論，我認為這已經朝著非常有利的方向發展。因此，也許您可以談談我們應該如何推斷這一點，以及當您開始考慮對沖 26 年時您是如何考慮這一點的。非常感謝。

I think when you look at the cocoa market fundamentals, they are going in the right direction. There has been clearly a pressure point in terms of demand. I think you saw the grinding numbers being down 7%, 8%, and that drove a couple of weeks ago. A low level of cocoa price below, the GBP5000 per ton mark. Clearly, we took advantage of that, and it is what we said to you many times, which is many adjacent categories are formulating out of real chocolate and moving into what we call compound.

我認為，當你觀察可可市場的基本面時，你會發現它們正朝著正確的方向發展。需求方面顯然存在一個壓力點。我想你已經看到研磨數量下降了 7%、8%，這是幾週前發生的事情。可可價格處於低位，低於每噸5000英鎊大關。顯然，我們利用了這一點，而且我們也多次跟大家說過，許多相鄰的類別都是由真正的巧克力製成的，並轉向我們所謂的複合物。

The pot count in West Africa is very promising. The weather has been cooperating. And look, notwithstanding the fact that there is still a long way to go. Today with the 50% confidence level, we can say that the season is going to be good in terms of the crop. And so potentially there is a material and meaningful upside between supply and demand into the 2026 season.

西非的產量前景十分樂觀。天氣一直很好。儘管事實如此，但我們還有很長的路要走。今天，我們有 50% 的置信水平，可以說本季的作物收成會很好。因此，到 2026 年，供需之間可能會出現實質且有意義的上漲。

The level of the industry stock is still low, so many are on the watch out still. And so I believe the sentiment, the overall sentiment is that sooner or later, cocoa prices will have to come down. On the cocoa butter, which is the most noble part of cocoa, and it is the one we use the most around the world, and that is what allows you to call chocolate.

該行業庫存水平仍然較低，因此許多人仍在保持警惕。因此我相信，總體觀點是，可可價格遲早會下降。可可脂是可可中最珍貴的部分，也是我們在世界各地使用最多的部分，這就是我們稱之為巧克力的原因。

For instance, in places like Europe. It has come down dramatically, I would say, versus last year. It is usually traded as a ratio to the overall cocoa prices. Last year it was, most likely at a certain point in time, even higher than three, and it went almost to four. And today, it, I think we can strike contract with supplier, for most likely half of that price and ratio.

例如，在歐洲這樣的地方。我想說，與去年相比，這一數字已經大幅下降。它通常以與整體可可價格的比率進行交易。去年，很可能在某個時間點，這個數字甚至高於 3，甚至接近 4。今天，我認為我們可以與供應商簽訂合同，價格和比例很可能是該價格和比例的一半。

And so there is a material benefit coming which obviously, is offsetting, the cost we have seen as of late, but in general, we feel like cocoa prices will have to come down.

因此，顯然，物質利益的出現可以抵消我們最近看到的成本，但總的來說，我們認為可可價格將會下降。

Megan Clapp, Morgan Stanley

摩根士丹利的梅根·克拉普

Hi, good evening. Thanks so much, maybe another follow up on the second half outlook. There was a comment in the prepared remarks just about some of these headwinds reducing your flexibility, and I guess if I were to look at what's implied in the second half in terms of organic sales growth, it's roughly similar to what you reported in the second quarter and just wondered if we could talk a little bit more about the regions and how to bridge from the second quarter to the second half.

嗨，晚上好。非常感謝，也許可以再跟進下半年的展望。準備好的評論中有一個評論是關於一些不利因素降低了你們的靈活性，我想如果我看看下半年在有機銷售增長方面意味著什麼，它與你們在第二季度報告的情況大致相同，我只是想知道我們是否可以更多地談論一下地區以及如何從第二季度過渡到下半年。

It does seem like you have good momentum in emerging markets. You'll have more pricing coming through in Europe, understand maybe elasticity is a bit higher, North America's weak, but look, if I understood you correctly, maybe North American could get a little bit better. So what are kind of the offsets that I'm missing that reduce the flexibility in your minds as it relates to the second half? Thank you.

看起來你們在新興市場確實擁有良好的發展動能。歐洲的定價會更高，可能彈性會更高一些，而北美則比較弱，但如果我理解正確的話，也許北美的情況會好一些。那麼，我忽略了哪些類型的補償，從而降低了你們在下半場思維中的靈活性？謝謝。

Thank you, Megan. So, as far as outlook goes in the prepared remarks, we make a comment about a little bit less flexibility. What we mean by that is really that the unprecedented heat wave that impacted chocolate in Europe is clearly something we couldn't predict as well as the impact we had, particularly, in the US because of the trade destalking.

謝謝你，梅根。因此，就準備好的評論中的展望而言，我們對靈活性稍差一點發表了評論。我們的意思是，這場史無前例的熱浪襲擊了歐洲的巧克力，這顯然是我們無法預測的，也無法預測它對我們造成的影響，尤其是對美國的影響，因為貿易戰的爆發。

So that's what we really mean by a little bit less flexibility. You might imagine we try to keep always a little bit of a buffer, particularly as we give guidance because things can happen. I think what we see in the last couple of weeks in Europe is the weather being more collaborative with us and we see chocolate consumption coming up and you might imagine it is a little bit hard to distinguish between elasticities and weather consumption.

這就是我們所說的靈活性稍差一點的真正意義。您可能會想像，我們會嘗試始終保留一點緩衝，特別是當我們提供指導時，因為事情可能會發生。我認為，過去幾週我們在歐洲看到的情況是，天氣對我們更加有利，我們看到巧克力消費量正在上升，你可能會想像，區分彈性消費和天氣消費有點困難。

But the latest indication is that the volume impact on chocolate is more benign than we have seen in the last, I would say a couple of months. Now, that has implications in terms of shipments in Europe in Q3. And so we are a little bit prudent in terms of projecting Europe, particularly in in Q3. North America, the pure fact is that the major market, category-wise, is at this point down volume wise minus 3%.

但最新的跡象表明，對巧克力銷量的影響比我們在過去幾個月中看到的要溫和得多。現在，這對第三季歐洲的出貨量有影響。因此，我們對歐洲的預測有些謹慎，特別是在第三季。北美，事實是，主要市場，按類別來看，目前銷量下降了 3%。

The category started going south. In Q4 and even in Q3 last year, we are lapping, but we are projecting our category volume wise to be down, still 3%. Now there is pricing, so revenue should go up from what you have seen, particularly this quarter on the positive side and clearly top bottom line should go up as well from what you have seen this quarter.

該類別開始走下坡路。在去年第四季甚至第三季度，我們都取得了進展，但我們預計我們的類別銷售將下降，但仍為 3%。現在有了定價，因此收入應該會比你所看到的有所上升，特別是本季度的積極方面，而且顯然最高利潤也應該比你本季度看到的有所上升。

In emerging markets, we have implemented multiple ways of pricing. We are out with a new price, both in India and Brazil that are the main markets we have in emerging markets. And so again, we need to stay quite prudent and see what happens to elasticities. We don't have reasons to believe that elasticity is going to be worse than what we planned for at this point in time, but again, we want to be on the cautious side.

在新興市場，我們實施了多種定價方式。我們針對印度和巴西這兩個新興市場推出了新的價格。因此，我們需要保持謹慎，觀察彈性會發生什麼變化。我們沒有理由相信彈性會比我們目前計劃的更糟糕，但再次強調，我們希望保持謹慎。

Our biscuit business continues to do well, excluding North America. Actually here today, revenue is up. A little bit more than 7%, and again, we project a combination of that. So we really want to be on the prudent side, I would say.

除北美以外，我們的餅乾業務繼續表現良好。實際上，今天我們的收入是增加了。略高於 7%，而且我們再次預測了這兩個數字的組合。所以我想說，我們確實希望採取謹慎的態度。

I'm not suggesting that the guidance is slam dunk at this point in time. You know that in the US, most likely there is a wave of inflation coming up and so we have to be, we have to stay prudent and execute with excellence as I think we have done in most of the cases in the first half.

我並不是說這個指導在目前這個階段就已經是萬無一失的。您知道，在美國，很可能會出現一波通貨膨脹，因此我們必須保持謹慎並出色地執行，我認為我們在上半年的大多數情況下都做到了這一點。

Okay, great, super thorough and helpful, thank you. And then maybe just to follow up on Cocoa, when we came into the year you said there's essentially two scenarios in terms of '26. One is Coco comes down and you have higher earnings upside potential two is it is elevated, you have to take a bit more pricing and you mentioned you took advantage of the recent drop in cocoa prices.

好的，太棒了，非常詳盡和有幫助，謝謝。然後也許只是為了跟進可可的問題，當我們進入這一年時，您說 26 年基本上有兩種情況。一是可可價格下跌，你的獲利潛力會更高；二是可可價格上漲，你必須採取更高的定價，你提到你利用了最近可可價格下跌的機會。

But how are you thinking about, whether or not you might have to do a little bit more pricing, some more RGM, and I guess how are you thinking about that into the back half of this year?

但您是如何考慮的，是否需要做更多的定價，更多的 RGM，我想您是如何考慮在今年下半年實現這些目標的？

So I think, look, this is one of the unknowns of the plan. I think, but I might be proven wrong. I believe that with the new crop data, we will know which direction Cocoa is going to take, particularly for 2026. And I think there are possibly two scenarios. One, it is, it stays elevated, but the other one is it might go down, quite rapidly because if there is a surplus, between supply and demand, I think, there will be material coco availability that will drive prices down.

所以我認為，這是該計劃的未知數之一。我認為如此，但我可能被證明是錯的。我相信，有了新的作物數據，我們就會知道可可的發展方向，特別是 2026 年。我認為可能有兩種情況。一方面，它仍然保持高位，但另一方面，它可能會下降，而且下降得相當快，因為如果供需過剩，我認為，椰子供應充足，就會壓低價格。

In the first case, I think we might need or not, additional pricing based on where Cocoa is. If it stays where it is, I think all the actions that we are about to take from now to the end of the year. In some of the markets, I think will put us in a good spot. I said many times that when I look at the underlying per kilo of cocoa or the chocolate business gross profit dollars, I see a number that I like as we exit the year.

在第一種情況下，我認為我們可能需要或不需要根據 Cocoa 的所在地進行額外的定價。如果情況維持現狀，我認為從現在到年底我們將要採取的所有行動都將失效。在某些市場，我認為這會讓我們處於有利地位。我多次說過，當我看到每公斤可可或巧克力業務的毛利時，我看到了一個我喜歡的數字。

Remember that pricing as a carryover as well into next year. And so if Cocoa stays elevated, there might be additional pricing, but I think in all in all, we should be in a good spot at the end of the year. If Cocoa comes down, the question becomes, what do we do to protect demand, what do we do to face potentially some competitive actions, etc.

請記住，定價也將延續到明年。因此，如果可可價格保持高位，可能會有額外的定價，但我認為總的來說，到年底我們應該會處於一個良好的位置。如果可可價格下跌，問題就變成了，我們該怎麼做才能保護需求，我們該怎麼做才能應對潛在的競爭行為等等。

But in the end, I think the P&L will try because if I apply the elasticity, we have seen on the way up to the way down, there is either material price upside or there is a potential volume rebound. Also remember one critical thing which we said many times, the virtual model of this company has been in the last few years to protect, gross profit dollar growth.

但最終，我認為損益表將會嘗試，因為如果我應用彈性，我們已經看到，從上漲到下跌，要么存在材料價格上漲，要么存在潛在的交易量反彈。也要記住我們多次說過的一件關鍵的事情，這家公司的虛擬模式在過去幾年裡一直保護著毛利的成長。

As opposed to percentages, but it has also been investing, particularly in working in media and in good to market, and we will continue to do so and potentially in 2026, we'll step it up depending on the level of cocoa to the point where we really re-establish a virtual cycle which is volume growth, shared growth, generation of GP dollars and again good cash for the company.

與百分比相反，它也一直在投資，特別是在媒體和良好的市場營銷方面，我們將繼續這樣做，並可能在 2026 年根據可可的水平加大投資力度，直到我們真正重建一個虛擬循環，即銷量增長、共享增長、產生 GP 美元，並再次為公司帶來良好的現金。

Robert Moscow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科（Robert Moscow），TD Cowen。

Hi, thanks for the question and maybe just a couple of things to clarify, Luca. The comment that you need to invest in working media in 2026, a lot of other companies do that when they've reduced media in a given year. So it doesn't sound like that's what you're doing, so maybe you could explain whether that's like a catch up in '26 or not, and then I'll ask a quick follow up.

你好，謝謝你的提問，也許我只需要澄清幾件事，盧卡。有評論說你需要在 2026 年投資工作媒體，許多其他公司在某一年減少媒體投入時也會這樣做。所以聽起來你並不是這麼做的，所以也許你可以解釋一下這是否像是 26 年的追趕，然後我會快速跟進。

Yes, Rob, I'll take that. So, the way I would describe it is that we will have a chocolate category whereby the price will have gone up 30% to 50% in the last two years, and what we see is consumers are staying in the category. But they're diminishing their frequency and they're diminishing the quantity bought.

是的，羅布，我接受。所以，我是這樣描述的：我們將會有一個巧克力類別，其價格在過去兩年中將上漲 30% 到 50%，而我們看到的是消費者仍然購買該類別的巧克力。但他們正在減少購買頻率和數量。

So we expect that after all the price increases and even if cocoa comes down, I'm not expecting that it will come down enough for us to see significant price reductions in chocolate. We will have to support our brands and make sure that the volume in the category remains or goes back to where it historically has been.

因此，我們預計，在所有價格上漲之後，即使可可價格下降，我也不認為價格會下降到足以讓我們看到巧克力價格大幅下降的程度。我們必須支持我們的品牌，並確保該類別的銷售量保持或恢復到歷史水平。

I don't know where we will end the year, but you could expect chocolate volumes around the world to be down. So far, we see down 6%-7%. That's the latest news on grindings for cocoa. So that's the main reason why we think we will have to reinvest.

我不知道今年的產量會是多少，但可以預見的是，全球的巧克力產量將會下降。到目前為止，我們看到下降了6%-7%。這是有關可可研磨的最新消息。這就是我們認為必須重新投資的主要原因。

On top of that, as it relates to biscuits, particularly the US, we see a very anxious and weak consumer situation. I'm not expecting that that immediately will be better next year. So I'm expecting that we will have to increase our investment in our brands also in North America next year. Those are the two main reasons why we believe that it is appropriate to increase our media investment next year.

除此之外，就餅乾而言，尤其是在美國，我們看到消費者的消費狀況非常焦慮和疲軟。我並不期望明年情況會立即好轉。因此我預計明年我們也必須增加對北美品牌的投資。這是我們認為明年增加媒體投資是適當的兩個主要原因。

And you're right, we have protected working media. This year what we have got is the nonworking bar. And so I wouldn't say the baseline is terrible, but this year, unlike other years, we haven't increased working media much.

你說得對，我們已經保護了工作媒體。今年我們得到的是無法工作的酒吧。因此，我不會說基準很糟糕，但今年與往年不同，我們的工作媒體並沒有增加太多。

Okay. And my follow up is I noticed Luca that you said, category volume down about 3% in biscuits in the first half, you expect it to be similar in the second half, but then you're also raising prices in the US and you've mentioned that the consumer is under a lot of pressure. Is this one of the flex points that might go the wrong way, and how much pricing do you think you'll raise in the US?

好的。我的後續問題是，我注意到盧卡，您說過，上半年餅乾品類的銷量下降了約 3%，您預計下半年的情況也差不多，但您也提高了美國的價格，您提到消費者承受著很大的壓力。這是可能出錯的轉折點之一嗎？您認為在美國您會將價格提高多少？

Look, I'm not going to comment specifically on the amount of pricing yet but as I said, the price increase that we are about to take has been quite surgical. We mentioned to you a few times that, between $3 and $4 per pack, it is the magic of being there and attracting consumers.

聽著，我暫時還不會對定價金額發表具體評論，但正如我所說，我們即將採取的價格上漲是相當精準的。我們多次向您提到過，每包的價格在 3 到 4 美元之間，這就是存在並吸引消費者的魔力。

And that's what really, we are about to, not to touch. We will protect those price points. I, we mentioned to you that there are specific pack sizes that are very relevant to consumers like the multi packs. We are keeping those price points. There are brands that are not our top brands necessarily where we're going to go with higher prices and that over time has proven to us that elasticity is not material.

而這正是我們真正不想觸及的。我們將保護這些價格點。我，我們曾向您提到過，有一些特定的包裝尺寸與消費者息息相關，例如多包裝。我們會保持這些價格點。有些品牌不一定是我們的頂級品牌，我們會以更高的價格出售它們，而且隨著時間的推移，我們已經證明彈性並不重要。

And then there is a whole host of ideas as to what we have to do to boost consumption in the second half, particularly as it boils down to RGM. And promotions, I think the team has a slate of actions that hopefully will lead to much better brand new results.

然後，關於下半年我們要做什麼來刺激消費，我們提出了一大堆想法，特別是關於 RGM 的想法。至於促銷，我認為團隊已經採取了一系列行動，希望這些行動能帶來更好的全新結果。

So you're right in saying how do you reconcile the fact that consumers are price sensitive to a price increase, but we have done our homework and we believe there is not going to be a material volume repercussion on consumption in our case.

所以你說得對，你如何調和消費者對價格上漲敏感的事實，但我們已經做好了準備，我們相信在我們的情況下，這不會對消費產生實質性的數量影響。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Alexia Howard, BERNSTEIN.

亞歷克西亞·霍華德，伯恩斯坦。

Hi Alexia.

你好，Alexia。

Hi.

你好。

Hi, can I start with a question on uses of cash? It seems as though you are taking on a bit more debt in order to repurchase shares. I think you put a $9 billion share repurchase approval over the next three years out at the end of last year. Should we expect that dynamic to continue, how are you thinking about the trade-off between taking on debt and continuing to repurchase our shares at this point?

您好，我可以先問一個關於現金用途的問題嗎？看起來好像您為了回購股票而承擔了更多的債務。我認為你們在去年年底就批准了未來三年 90 億美元的股票回購計畫。如果我們預期這種動態會持續下去，您如何看待承擔債務和繼續回購股票之間的權衡？

Look, the number one ticket item between the balance of cash flow and share purchase and dividend is actually the Forex impact on our debt. Our debt composition is made up of obviously a dollarized space but importantly of the Euro of GBT of the [you call it]. We have diversified the currency nature of our debt over time, and we believe that this is the right action to take.

你看，現金流平衡與股票購買和股息之間的首要問題實際上是外匯對我們債務的影響。我們的債務組成顯然是由美元化的空間組成，但重要的是，GBT 的歐元[你這麼稱呼它]。我們已經逐步實現了債務貨幣性質的多樣化，我們相信這是正確的舉措。

The second thing which is not capturing debt is we have meaningful net investment hedges that hedge the composition of the balance sheet and the variety of currencies that we have functionally around the world. So looking at the debt that is impacted by Forex and not looking at the overall balance sheet and the gains, the material gains we are making on the net investment hedges is a little bit misleading.

第二件事是沒有抓住債務，我們有有意義的淨投資對沖，可以對沖資產負債表的組成和我們在世界各地擁有的各種貨幣。因此，如果只看受外匯影響的債務，而不看整體資產負債表和收益，我們在淨投資對沖中獲得的物質收益就有點誤導了。

But to your point about shares, I stick to what I said in the Q1 call. We have been buying back quite a bit of shares at a very compelling price which was below $60 per share on average. We are going to be very pragmatic. Should the stock for any reasons, and quite frankly, I have to say, when I fast forward and I see Cocoa coming down, when I see Mondeli in a context where many companies are challenged, printing a number on top line, which is quite good.

但對於您對股票的觀點，我堅持我在第一季電話會議上所說的話。我們一直以非常有吸引力的價格回購大量股票，平均價格低於每股 60 美元。我們將採取非常務實的態度。如果股票出於任何原因下跌，坦白說，我不得不說，當我快轉時，我看到可可的股價下跌，當我看到蒙德利在許多公司面臨挑戰的背景下，在頂線上印上數字，這是相當不錯的。

As I look at the plans around the world, I believe we are setting ourselves up for a decent 2026. I don't believe necessarily the stock price is going to go down much, I hope from here, but in case it does, we are going to be pragmatic and buy back more stock. And I think in hindsight, as Cocoa normalizes and we look at our normalized earnings, this will be one of the best deployment of capital decisions we have made.

當我看到世界各地的計劃時，我相信我們正在為美好的 2026 年做好準備。我不認為股價一定會大幅下跌，我希望從現在開始，但如果真的下跌，我們就會務實地回購更多股票。我認為，事後看來，隨著可可業務的正常化以及我們收益的正常化，這將是我們做出的最佳資本配置決策之一。

Great. Thank you. And as a follow up, the weakness in North American volumes. I know you've attributed it to weakness value seeking behavior on the part of consumers. How are you thinking about the GLP-1 impact on these indulgent snacking categories, particularly as we think about pill versions coming out next year? Is there a danger that North America sees continued pressure?

偉大的。謝謝。隨之而來的是北美銷量疲軟。我知道您將其歸因於消費者的弱點價值追求行為。您如何看待 GLP-1 對這些零食類別的影響，尤其是考慮到明年將推出的藥丸版本？北美是否有持續面臨壓力的危險？

Obviously, your other regions are doing fine, which is great, but I'm just thinking about how you prepare for that eventuality next year. Thank you, and I'll pass it on.

顯然，你們的其他地區做得很好，這很好，但我只是在考慮你們明年如何為這種可能性做好準備。謝謝，我會傳達的。

Yes. Well, I mean from our perspective, there is currently no real impact on our volumes coming from GLP-1. We did an in-depth analysis in North America. And most of the negative volume that we're seeing and the changing in consumer buying is all driven economically, the anxiety about the future, the frustration with the inflation, and so on.

是的。嗯，我的意思是從我們的角度來看，目前 GLP-1 對我們的銷售沒有真正的影響。我們對北美做了深入分析。我們看到的大部分負面數據和消費者購買力的變化都是由經濟因素驅動的，包括對未來的焦慮、對通貨膨脹的沮喪等等。

If we look at the numbers at this stage, the penetration of the drug in the adult penetrate and in the adult population is about 4%. The reduction in calorie intake at this stage is about 11%, and consumers are staying about nine months on the drug.

如果我們看一下現階段的數字，藥物在成年人口中的滲透率約為 4%。此階段卡路里攝取量的減少量約為 11%，消費者服用該藥物的時間約為九個月。

The penetration is not going up at this stage. And so if you think about it, 4% of the population reducing their calorie intake by 11%, that is a 0.4% effect on the total population, of the total calorie intake -- and so that is an almost invisible effect for us.

目前滲透率還沒有上升。如果你仔細想想，4% 的人口將他們的卡路里攝取量減少 11%，那麼對總人口的影響就是總卡路里攝取量的 0.4%——所以這對我們來說幾乎是看不見的影響。

Even if we extrapolate that for '26, we do not see a major increase in the penetration of GLP-1 ones happening and so I think even in 2016, and to be honest, we even extrapolate it for 10 years. We do not think that the effect will be significant. So, we don't think that the current weakness that we see in the snacking category is driven by GLP-1's, nor will it be in '26.

即使我們推斷 26 年，我們也不會看到 GLP-1 滲透率大幅成長，因此我認為即使在 2016 年，老實說，我們甚至可以推斷 10 年。我們認為影響不會很大。因此，我們認為，目前零食類別的疲軟並不是 GLP-1 造成的，在 26 年也不會如此。

Helpful. Thank you so much. I'll pass.

很有幫助。太感謝了。我會通過。

Max Gumport, BNP Paribas Exane.

馬克斯·岡波特，法國巴黎銀行 Exane。

Hey, thanks for the question. Just sticking on North America, I wanted to get a better sense for the retailer the stocking that you saw. I'm hoping to get more color on what drove it and how you think it plays out or recovers from here. Thank you.

嘿，謝謝你的提問。只停留在北美，我想更了解零售商所看到的庫存。我希望能夠更詳細地了解導致這一現象的原因以及您認為它將如何發展或如何恢復。謝謝。

Yes. I mean, it's sometimes difficult for us to put ourselves in the place of the retailers, but we believe that this is driven by a number of things, but in the first place, probably the retailers wanting to manage their cash flow. If you think about it, there's an overall slowdown in consumption. Tariffs were coming.

是的。我的意思是，有時我們很難將自己置於零售商的位置，但我們相信這是由多種因素驅動的，但首先，可能是零售商想要管理他們的現金流。如果你仔細想想，你會發現整體消費正在放緩。關稅即將到來。

They probably wanted to import more from the countries that were going to be affected, so they increased the imports and increased their inventories in certain items and wanted to offset that by reducing other items. The second reason I think is there's an overall slowdown in food consumption and also in snacking. So there's a need for them to have less inventory at this stage.

他們可能想從將要受到影響的國家進口更多產品，因此他們增加了進口量並增加了某些商品的庫存，並想透過減少其他商品來抵消這種影響。我認為第二個原因是食品消費和零食消費整體放緩。因此，現階段他們需要減少庫存。

For me, those are the two main reasons. As we said, we still have significant opportunity in other channels. So, one of our strategies is to shift more of our pressure into channels like the value channels or e-commerce or the discounters, and that is giving us an opportunity to offset some of that destocking that we've seen in the retailers.

對我來說，這是兩個主要原因。正如我們所說，我們在其他管道仍然有很大機會。因此，我們的策略之一是將更多的壓力轉移到價值管道、電子商務或折扣店等管道，這使我們有機會抵消零售商所看到的部分去庫存現象。

But overall, I think those were the factors that drove it. We were a bit surprised to still see some of that in Q2, but I think we now have that behind us and Q3 should be clean as it relates to in retailer inventory.

但總的來說，我認為這些是導致這現象發生的因素。我們有點驚訝在第二季度仍然看到一些這樣的情況，但我認為我們現在已經擺脫了這種情況，第三季度應該是乾淨的，因為它與零售商庫存有關。

Great. Thanks very much. I'll leave it there.

偉大的。非常感謝。我就把它留在那裡。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

That will conclude the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the program back over to Dirk Van De Put for any additional or closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我將節目交還給 Dirk Van De Put，請他發表任何補充或結束語。

Well, I want to thank everybody for their interest, for their attendance to the call, and I can always follow up on more questions with our IR group, and, I'll see you for the call, a quarter from now. Thank you.

好吧，我要感謝大家的關注和參加電話會議，我可以隨時與我們的 IR 小組跟進更多問題，我們將在一個季度後的電話會議上與您見面。謝謝。

Thank you everyone.

謝謝大家。

Thank you this does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

謝謝，今天的通話到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。