億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Mondelez International third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour including remarks by Mondelez management and the question and answer session. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加億滋國際 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約一小時，包括億滋管理層的演講和問答環節。（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將電話轉給億滋投資者關係資深副總裁 Shep Dunlap 先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon and thank you for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van De Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides which are available on our website. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today.

下午好，感謝您加入我們。今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長 Dirk Van De Put；和我們的財務長盧卡·扎拉梅拉 (Luca Zaramella)。今天早些時候，我們發出了新聞稿和簡報幻燈片，這些幻燈片可以在我們的網站上找到。在本次電話會議中，我們將對公司的績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們今天看待事物的方式。

Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained enter 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on our forward-looking statements. As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results.

由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素，以了解有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳細資訊。當我們今天討論我們的績效時，除非另有說明，否則我們將參考我們的非公認會計準則財務指標，這些指標會針對我們的公認會計準則績效中包含的某些項目進行調整。

In addition, we provide year over year growth on a constant currency basis unless otherwise noted. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation. Today, Dirk will provide a business strategy update followed by a review of our financial results and outlook by Luca. We will close with Q&A.

此外，除非另有說明，我們以固定匯率為基礎提供年成長。您可以在我們的收益報告和投影片簡報的後面找到可比較的 GAAP 指標以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調整表。今天，德克將提供業務策略更新，隨後盧卡將回顧我們的財務表現和前景。我們將以問答結束。

I'll now turn the call over to Dirk.

我現在將電話轉給德克。

Thanks, Shep and thanks to everyone for joining the call today.

謝謝謝普，也謝謝大家今天加入電話會議。

I will start on slide 4. I'm pleased to share that we delivered strong top line growth with positive volume mix. Developed markets grew mid-single digits led by solid progress in North America biscuits as well as recovery in Europe following successful implementation of our annual pricing. Emerging markets also grew mid-single digits despite continued boycotts of Western brands in certain markets.

我將從幻燈片 4 開始。我很高興地告訴大家，我們實現了強勁的營收成長和正面的銷售組合。已開發市場成長了中個位數，這得益於北美餅乾的穩健進展以及歐洲在成功實施年度定價後的復甦。儘管西方品牌在某些市場上持續受到抵制，新興市場也實現了中個位數成長。

Strong profit dollar growth enabled us to continue our track record of robust free cash flow, generating $2.5 billion year-to-date. We expanded our presence in the fast growing cakes and pastries category by acquiring a majority stake in Evirth a leading player in cakes and pastries in China. And I'll provide some additional color on this exciting partnership in a few minutes.

強勁的利潤成長使我們能夠繼續保持強勁的自由現金流記錄，今年迄今已創造 25 億美元的收入。我們透過收購中國蛋糕和糕點行業領導者 Evirth 的多數股權，擴大了我們在快速成長的蛋糕和糕點領域的業務。幾分鐘後我將就這令人興奮的合作關係提供一些額外的資訊。

We remain diligent in driving progress against our long term growth strategy focused on our core categories of chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks. These core categories continue to show strong consumption and on top consumers remain very favorable to our iconic portfolio as such as generating significant headroom opportunities. The strong fundamentals combined with our advantaged geographic footprint, keep on giving us confidence that we are well positioned to compound long term sustainable growth.

我們將繼續努力推動我們的長期成長策略取得進展，重點關注巧克力、餅乾和烘焙零食等核心品類。這些核心品類持續表現出強勁的消費勢頭，頂級消費者仍然對我們的標誌性產品組合非常青睞，例如產生巨大的成長機會。強勁的基本面與我們優勢的地理足跡相結合，繼續讓我們充滿信心，相信我們處於有利地位，可以實現長期可持續增長。

Turning to slide 5, you can see that organic net revenue grew 5.4% this quarter with adjusted gross profit dollar growth of 11.2% enabling us to continue investing in the business. ANC spending is up mid-single digits helping to drive continuing consumer and customer loyalty to both our iconic global brands and our local jewels. An adjusted EPS grew 28.6% this quarter and we have generated $2.5 billion in free cash flow through the first nine months of the year.

翻到投影片 5，您可以看到本季有機淨收入成長 5.4%，調整後毛利成長 11.2%，使我們能夠繼續投資該業務。ANC 支出成長了中個位數，有助於提高消費者和客戶對我們標誌性全球品牌和本地珠寶的持續忠誠度。本季調整後每股盈餘成長 28.6%，今年前 9 個月我們創造了 25 億美元的自由現金流。

On slide 6, we are pleased to see that developed markets are beginning to recover with solid revenue growth and an increasing healthy volume mix in the third quarter. Unlike many of our peers, we're seeing continued consumer uptake of our core snacking categories. In North America we are seeing volume growth start to rebound as inflation cools and we continue to expand distribution in areas like club.

在投影片 6 上，我們很高興看到已開發市場開始復甦，第三季營收穩定成長，銷售組合日益健康。與許多同行不同，我們看到消費者持續關注我們的核心零食類別。在北美，隨著通膨降溫，我們看到銷售成長開始反彈，並且我們繼續擴大俱樂部等領域的分銷。

Similarly, in Europe revenue grew 8.1% in the third quarter following significant disruption earlier in the year as our annual pricing took hold. Unlike many of our peers, both volume mix and net revenue are beginning to turn the corner. Consumers are continuing to embrace chocolate and biscuits as everyday indulgences. And our revenue growth management strategies enable us to meet every consumer's needs with a broad array of product formats, pack sizes and price points to meet their definition of value.

同樣，在歐洲，隨著我們的年度定價政策的實施，今年稍早出現了重大混亂，第三季的營收成長了 8.1%。與我們的許多同行不同，銷售結構和淨收入都開始出現好轉。消費者繼續將巧克力和餅乾視為日常嗜好。我們的收入成長管理策略使我們能夠透過廣泛的產品格式、包裝尺寸和價格點來滿足每個消費者的需求，以滿足他們對價值的定義。

Turning to slide 7, you can see a bit more context on how and why our snacking categories remain durable. In North America consumer confidence remains stable, despite continuing concern with overall grocery prices. Biscuit category volume is improving to flat to slightly up over the last three months. In the United States, private label volume share is declining demonstrating that consumers remain loyal to their favorite brands and that our price pack architecture is working. As a result our two largest us brands, Oreo and Ritz are gaining shares year-to-date.

翻到投影片 7，您可以看到更多關於我們的零食類別如何以及為何保持耐用的背景資訊。在北美，儘管對整體雜貨價格的持續擔憂，消費者信心仍然穩定。過去三個月，餅乾類別的銷售量從持平到略有上升。在美國，自有品牌銷售份額正在下降，這表明消費者仍然忠於他們喜愛的品牌，並且我們的價格包架構正在發揮作用。因此，我們的兩個最大的美國品牌奧利奧和麗茲今年迄今的份額不斷增加。

Meanwhile, in Europe elasticities are moving slightly higher but remain modest. We continue to see solid category value growth in both biscuits and chocolate with private label share declining over the past three months. Some consumers are shifting to smaller packs of chocolate for everyday snacking and again, our RGM and price pack architecture enable us to offer an appropriate range of choices.

同時，歐洲的彈性略有上升，但仍溫和。我們繼續看到餅乾和巧克力的品類價值穩步增長，但過去三個月中自有品牌份額有所下降。一些消費者正在轉向使用小包裝的巧克力作為日常零食，我們的 RGM 和價格包架構使我們能夠提供適當的選擇範圍。

As we head into the yearend festive season, seasonals are also looking solid. In emerging markets, modest elasticities continue consumer confidence is stable in India, Brazil and Mexico. While the overall China economy remains challenged, we're seeing optimism beginning to return as stimulus policies take effect. Overall, our combined emerging markets value and volume share is improving in both biscuits and chocolate.

當我們進入年終節日時，季節性看起來也很穩定。在新興市場，印度、巴西和墨西哥的適度彈性使得消費者信心持續穩定。儘管中國整體經濟仍面臨挑戰，但隨著刺激政策的生效，我們看到樂觀情緒開始回歸。總體而言，我們在餅乾和巧克力領域的新興市場綜合價值和銷售份額都在提高。

Turning to slide 8, it's important to reinforce that while the external environment remains volatile, we remain focused on accelerating our long term growth strategy. We're continuing to reinvest in our brands, expand distribution drive M&A and scale sustainable snacking. We remain on track to deliver 90% of revenue through our core categories of chocolate, biscuit and baked snacks by 2030. And our teams continue to deliver strong progress against our strategic agenda.

轉向投影片 8，需要強調的是，雖然外部環境仍然不穩定，但我們仍然專注於加速我們的長期成長策略。我們將繼續對我們的品牌進行再投資，擴大分銷，推動併購，並擴大可持續零食的規模。到 2030 年，我們仍有望透過巧克力、餅乾和烘焙零食等核心品類實現 90% 的收入。我們的團隊繼續在我們的戰略議程上取得強勁進展。

For example, our Oreo brand launched in August, an innovative collaboration with Coca Cola, our largest global brand activation to date. These two iconic brands joined forces in a 360 degree marketing campaign encompassing digital, social, celebrity and in-person activation to unite our strong fan bases and build bus around two high profile limited editions, a Coke flavored Oreo cookie and an Oreo flavored zero sugar Coke.

例如，我們在 8 月推出了奧利奧品牌，這是我們與可口可樂的創新合作，這是我們迄今為止最大的全球品牌活動。這兩個標誌性品牌聯手開展了一場涵蓋數位、社交、名人和親自激活的360 度行銷活動，以團結我們強大的粉絲群，並圍繞兩款高調限量版（可樂味奧利奧餅乾和奧利奧味零糖）打造巴士可樂。

These types of investments not only enable us to stay top of mind for consumers, but also to strengthen partnerships with key retailers. Along with these marketing activations, we are continuing to strengthen store availability, visibility and execution around the world. For example, in Brazil, the convenience channel is growing high single digit on a year-to-date basis with plans to further grow coverage in this channel with additional stores.

這些類型的投資不僅使我們能夠始終受到消費者的關注，而且還加強了與主要零售商的合作夥伴關係。除了這些行銷活動之外，我們還將繼續加強世界各地商店的可用性、可見性和執行力。例如，在巴西，便利通路今年迄今正以高個位數成長，並計劃透過更多商店進一步擴大該管道的覆蓋範圍。

We are also continuing to harness the power of acquisition to capture synergies and drive growth. For example, in China, our acquisition of Evirth step changes, our growth in the cakes and pastries category. I'll provide additional color in just a minute.

我們也繼續利用收購的力量來獲取協同效應並推動成長。例如，在中國，我們收購了Evirth，步驟發生了變化，我們在蛋糕和糕點品類上的成長。我將在一分鐘內提供額外的顏色。

Importantly, we remain committed to driving progress to a more sustainable snacking business through our continued focus on our environmental and social sustainability agenda. For example, we recently introduced new recyclable paper packaging for our legendary LU biscuit brand in France, Belgium and the United Kingdom.

重要的是，我們仍然致力於透過持續關注環境和社會永續發展議程來推動更永續的零食業務的進步。例如，我們最近為法國、比利時和英國的傳奇 LU 餅乾品牌推出了新的可回收紙包裝。

Now let's dig a little deeper into the cakes and pastries category in our recent announcement in China. As you can see on slide 9, the global packaged cakes and pastries category is valued at about USD95 billion. Mondelez currently holds the number three global share position and because this category is highly fragmented around the world, we see significant opportunities for bolt on M&A as well as organic growth.

現在讓我們更深入地了解我們最近在中國發布的公告中的蛋糕和糕點類別。正如您在幻燈片 9 中看到的，全球包裝蛋糕和糕點類別的價值約為 950 億美元。億滋國際目前佔據全球第三大市場份額，由於這個類別在全球範圍內高度分散，我們看到了併購和有機成長的巨大機會。

We already have delivered strong growth in this category through our 2020 acquisition of give and go, the leading manufacturer of frozen to fresh brownies, cookies, cupcakes, and related bakery products in North America.

透過 2020 年收購 Give and Go（北美冷凍到新鮮布朗尼、餅乾、紙杯蛋糕和相關烘焙產品的領先製造商），我們已經在這一類別中實現了強勁增長。

And our 2022 accusation of Chipita a leader in croissants, baked rolls and related snacks anchored in central and Eastern Europe. In China, as you can see on the right hand side of the slide, the packaged cakes and pastries category is valued at about $14 billion. Within that category the frozen to chilled segment is growing in double digits currently estimated at $1.5 billion. Chinese consumers increasingly seek fresh premium options with innovative and sophisticated taste profiles to meet a growing range of snacking occasions.

我們 2022 年對 Chipita 的指控是，其在中歐和東歐是羊角麵包、烤麵包捲和相關零食的領導者。在中國，正如您在幻燈片右側看到的那樣，包裝蛋糕和糕點類別的價值約為 140 億美元。在該類別中，冷凍到冷藏市場正在以兩位數的速度成長，目前估計價值 15 億美元。中國消費者越來越多地尋求具有創新和精緻口味的新鮮優質選擇，以滿足越來越多的零食場合。

On slide 10, you can see that's why we are excited about the expansion of our existing partnership with Evirth. The Chinese leaders in the fast growing frozen two chilled baked snacks category, we have worked with Evirth for several years to develop, manufacture, market and sell cakes and pastries featuring some of our economic brands including Oreo and Philadelphia.

在投影片 10 上，您可以看到這就是我們對擴大與 Evirth 現有合作夥伴關係感到興奮的原因。作為中國快速成長的冷凍兩冷烘焙零食領域的領導者，我們與 Evirth 合作多年，開發、製造、行銷和銷售蛋糕和糕點，其中包括奧利奧和費城等我們的一些經濟品牌。

A recent purchase of a majority stake will enable us to further accelerate growth through continuous innovation, leveraging the combination of our high value brand with Evirth advanced, R&D and technical expertise. Chinese consumers increasingly are seeking fresh premium products with demand growing especially fast among younger generations in mid-tier cities. Evirth has a strong presence among key customers including club stores and our expanded partnership will enable us to scale distribution broader and faster.

最近購買多數股權將使我們能夠透過持續創新，利用我們的高價值品牌與 Evirth 先進、研發和技術專長的結合，進一步加速成長。中國消費者越來越多地尋求新鮮的優質產品，其中中線城市的年輕一代的需求增長尤其迅速。Evirth 在包括俱樂部商店在內的主要客戶中擁有強大的影響力，我們擴大的合作夥伴關係將使我們能夠更廣泛、更快地擴大分銷規模。

Before I turn the microphone over to Luca, I'd like to share some preliminary perspective on our approach to 2025. In light of the widely known cocoa cost headwind. Chocolate remains a great category and continues to generate significant consumer interest. Consumers count on our iconic brands including Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Toblerone, Cote d'or, Marabou, Freia, Lacta to celebrate special occasions to share with family and friends and to unwind with a moment of mindful indulgence.

在將麥克風交給 Luca 之前，我想分享一些關於我們邁向 2025 年的初步觀點。鑑於眾所周知的可可成本逆風。巧克力仍然是一個重要的類別，並繼續引起消費者的極大興趣。消費者依靠我們的標誌性品牌，包括吉百利牛奶、Milka、Toblerone、Cote d'or、Marabou、Freia、Lacta 來慶祝特殊場合，與家人和朋友分享，並放鬆身心，享受片刻的放鬆。

As we will continue to invest in our brands, we remain confident that consumer loyalty will not only endure but continue to grow even as we execute the necessary short term pricing steps. Our primary focus is to continue to build the health and the growth of the chocolate category as a whole and our brands in particular. While we remain relentlessly obsessed with consumer value, we do anticipate some upticks in elasticity in certain markets and we might need to adapt to more aggressive RGM and promotions.

由於我們將繼續投資於我們的品牌，我們仍然相信，即使我們執行必要的短期定價步驟，消費者忠誠度不僅會持久，而且會繼續成長。我們的主要重點是繼續促進整個巧克力類別（特別是我們的品牌）的健康和發展。雖然我們仍然不懈地專注於消費者價值，但我們確實預期某些市場的彈性會上升，並且我們可能需要適應更積極的 RGM 和促銷活動。

And while the temporary cost increase of cocoa will put pressure on our margins, we will continue to invest in tools that strengthen brand loyalty and accelerate growth such as Visi coolers to improve visibility and accessibility as well as continued strong investments in working media. We expect the majority of our portfolio to grow both top and bottom line consistent with our algorithm. And we believe we are taking the right steps to position the chocolate business for attractive and long term sustainable growth. We remain confident that we are well equipped to appropriately manage input cost headwinds and to emerge stronger.

雖然可可成本的暫時增加會對我們的利潤造成壓力，但我們將繼續投資於增強品牌忠誠度並加速成長的工具，例如Visi 冷卻器，以提高可見性和可及性，並對工作媒體繼續進行大力投資。我們預計我們的大部分投資組合都會按照我們的演算法實現營收和利潤的成長。我們相信，我們正在採取正確的步驟，使巧克力業務實現有吸引力的長期可持續成長。我們仍然相信，我們有能力適當管理投入成本逆風並變得更強大。

With that, I'll turn it over to Luca to share additional insights on our financials.

接下來，我會將其轉交給盧卡，分享更多有關我們財務狀況的見解。

Thank you, Dirk. And good afternoon, everyone. Q3 was a strong quarter across our key financial metrics including top line gross profit dollar, ANC investment, earnings growth and free cash flow. Revenue grew 5.4% with strong pricing execution and positive volume mix growth. Developed markets grew 5.6% with a volume mix increase of 1% driven by both North America and Europe. Total revenue for emerging markets grew 4.9% with the volume mix decline of 1% driven by Western brand boycotts in AMEA and the lower volumes mostly in Mexico.

謝謝你，德克。大家下午好。第三季我們的關鍵財務指標表現強勁，包括營收毛利、ANC 投資、獲利成長和自由現金流。憑藉強勁的定價執行力和積極的銷售成長，營收成長了 5.4%。在北美和歐洲的推動下，已開發市場成長了 5.6%，銷量成長了 1%。新興市場的總收入成長了 4.9%，但由於 AMEA 的西方品牌抵制以及主要在墨西哥的銷量下降，銷量組合下降了 1%。

Moving to portfolio performance on slide 14, biscuits and baked snacks grew 3.3% for the quarter. Several brands deliver robust growth including Oreo, Ritz, LU, Seven days and Club Social. US biscuits deliver solid growth in the quarter with a good balance from both pricing and volume mix. Chocolate group plus 9.2% with trends in both developed and emerging markets.

來看投影片 14 的投資組合表現，餅乾和烘焙零食本季成長了 3.3%。多個品牌實現了強勁成長，包括 Oreo、Ritz、LU、7 days 和 Club Social。美國餅乾在本季實現穩健成長，定價和銷售組合保持良好平衡。巧克力集團成長 9.2%，已開發市場及新興市場均呈現趨勢。

Volume mix was down minus 1.2% driven mostly by challenges in Latin America. Whereas most of Europe came back strongly after customer disruption. Cadbury Dairy milk, Milka, Toblerone and Freia, Marabou all delivered strong growth for the quarter. Gum and candy grew 5.6% driven by continued momentum and strength in key markets including Brazil and US candy. Volume mix in this category was likely positive.

銷售組合下降-1.2%，主要是因為拉丁美洲面臨的挑戰。而歐洲大部分地區在客戶中斷後強勢回歸。吉百利牛奶、Milka、Toblerone 和 Freia、Marabou 本季均實現強勁成長。在巴西和美國糖果等主要市場的持續成長動能和強勁推動下，口香糖和糖果成長了 5.6%。該類別的銷售組合可能是正面的。

Let's review market and share performance on slide 15, we held or gained share in 35% of our revenue base with solid results in chocolate as well as in gum and candy. This trend was partially offset by our US biscuit business which accounts for approximately 25% points of revenue. We expect total share metric to improve moving forward. As Europe gained share in Q3 following customer disruption in F1. The US still has work to do but we have seen shareholding in the last three months and believe new price packs in Q4 should help drive further improvement.

讓我們回顧一下幻燈片 15 上的市場和股票表現，我們在巧克力、口香糖和糖果領域取得了堅實的業績，持有或獲得了 35% 的收入基礎份額。這一趨勢被我們的美國餅乾業務部分抵消，該業務約佔收入的 25%。我們預計總份額指標將繼續改善。繼 F1 客戶中斷之後，歐洲在第三季獲得了份額。美國仍有工作要做，但我們在過去三個月中看到了股權，並相信第四季的新價格包應該有助於推動進一步改善。

Moving to regional performance on slide 16, Europe grew at 8.1% in Q3 execution was strong in key markets such as the UK, Germany and France all delivering significant growth. We saw a slight uptick in elasticity resulting from pricing but consumer sentiment remains relatively stable. Why dollars were up more than [46%] including significant ANC investments. And due in part to pricing versus favorable Coco facing.

轉向投影片 16 上的區域表現，歐洲第三季執行力成長 8.1%，英國、德國和法國等主要市場均顯著成長。我們看到定價帶來的彈性略有上升，但消費者信心仍然相對穩定。為什麼美元上漲超過 [46%]，其中包括大量 ANC 投資。部分原因在於定價與可可面臨的有利條件。

North America grew 3.7% against a strong compare of nearly 10% in the prior year. Solid performance in growth channels, distribution gains and impactful brand activations like the Oreo Coca Cola partnership drove Q3 growth. New price pack for Oreo, Ritz and Chips Ahoy that will provide better representation in the $3 to $4 range are just beginning to hit retail shelves now. North America Ahoy increased 6.5%.

北美地區成長了 3.7%，而去年同期則成長了近 10%。成長通路、分銷收益和與奧利奧可口可樂合作夥伴關係等有影響力的品牌活化方面的穩健表現推動了第三季的成長。Oreo、Ritz 和 Chips Ahoy 的新價格包將在 3 至 4 美元範圍內提供更好的代表性，現在剛開始上架零售。北美市場上漲 6.5%。

AMEA grew 5.8%. China posted strong results with high single-digit growth fueled by continued investment in brand building across audio Chips Ahoy and Stride. Coupled with ongoing distribution gains, adding approximately 80,000 new outlets on a year-to-date basis. India was down slightly in Q3 driven by a decline in biscuit where inflation has led to a more competitive promotional environment.

AMEA 成長 5.8%。在音頻 Chips Ahoy 和 Stride 品牌建立持續投資的推動下，中國取得了強勁的業績，實現了高個位數成長。再加上持續的分銷成長，今年迄今新增約 8 萬個新分店。由於通膨導致促銷環境更具競爭力，印度第三季餅乾銷量略有下降。

On the flip side, chocolate continues to perform well, especially within the low unit price segment which grew in single digits. Australia, New Zealand and Japan deliver another strong quarter of growth driven by RGM. Strong activations and innovation boycott in the Middle East and Southeast Asia remain a headwind to results. We expect this dynamic to persist for the foreseeable future. However, it is largely embedded in the base beginning Q4, the overall impact to the region was approximately 2 percentage-points worth of growth.

另一方面，巧克力繼續表現良好，尤其是在以個位數成長的低單價細分市場。在 RGM 的推動下，澳洲、紐西蘭和日本又實現了強勁的季度成長。中東和東南亞的強烈活化和創新抵制仍然是成果的阻力。我們預計這種動態在可預見的未來將持續存在。然而，它很大程度上嵌入了第四季度開始的基數，對該地區的整體影響約為成長 2 個百分點。

AMEA increased the $8 by more than 15% with meaningful ANC increases. Latin America grew 2% in the quarter, Brazil and Western [Ande] posted growth while Mexico was down modestly. Note that Argentina pricing has been capped at 26% unlike Q3 last year, where the country contributed more than 18 points to LA growth. Latin America wide declined 4.8% due primarily to lower volumes in Argentina and Mexico.

AMEA 將 8 美元的金額提高了 15% 以上，並大幅提高了 ANC。拉丁美洲本季成長 2%，巴西和西部 [Ande] 實現成長，而墨西哥則小幅下滑。請注意，與去年第三季不同，阿根廷的定價上限為 26%，去年第三季該國對洛杉磯成長的貢獻超過 18 個百分點。拉丁美洲整體下降 4.8%，主要是由於阿根廷和墨西哥的銷售下降。

Turning to page 17, in Q3, we saw strong double digit gross profit dollar, NOI dollar growth. Topline growth pricing execution and ongoing cost discipline help fuel these results. In addition, cocoa is still relatively benign in Q3. Thanks to our effective cover strategies. In Q4, this dynamic will reverse with meaningful pressure to profit as cocoa catches up to market levels.

翻到第 17 頁，在第三季度，我們看到毛利（美元）和 NOI 美元強勁成長。營收成長定價執行和持續的成本控制有助於推動這些成果。此外，第三季可可仍然相對溫和。感謝我們有效的掩護策略。在第四季度，隨著可可追趕市場水平，這種動態將會逆轉，帶來巨大的利潤壓力。

Next to EPS on slide 18. Q3 EPS grew more than 28% in constant currency on the same drivers as [OI], we continue to generate strong free cash flow as you can see on slide 19. We deliver $2.5 billion to date which includes a payment of nearly $400 million in the quarter related to the EU commission matter.

第 18 張投影片 EPS 旁邊。在與 [OI] 相同的驅動因素下，以固定匯率計算，第三季 EPS 成長了 28% 以上，我們繼續產生強勁的自由現金流，如您在投影片 19 中看到的那樣。迄今為止，我們已交付 25 億美元，其中包括本季與歐盟委員會事務相關的近 4 億美元付款。

We have repurchased [1.2 billion] in stock here to date and we continue to be opportunistic for the remainder of the year and into 2025. Before moving to our outlook. I'll provide some additional context on cocoa. Cocoa costs have decreased since all-time highs and futures signal eventual normalization. Albeit the market is still showing signs of nervousness due to tight physical availability ahead of the new crop.

到目前為止，我們已經在這裡回購了 [12 億] 股票，並且我們在今年剩餘時間和 2025 年繼續保持機會主義。在轉向我們的展望之前。我將提供一些有關可可的額外背景資訊。可可成本自歷史高點以來已經下降，期貨預示著最終的正常化。儘管由於新作物上市前現貨供應緊張，市場仍表現出緊張的跡象。

At this stage, the new crop outlook remains positive with significant recovery compared to last year. Both consensus and our internal outlook forecast a surplus and increase talks into 2025. We still a few weeks to go before pots are harvested. We believe this is good news. We also continue to employ a flexible hedging structure that would allow us to risk manage next year.

現階段，新作前景依然樂觀，與去年相比顯著回升。共識和我們的內部展望都預測到 2025 年將出現盈餘並增加談判。離盆栽收穫還有幾週的時間。我們相信這是個好消息。我們也繼續採用靈活的對沖結構，這將使我們能夠在明年進行風險管理。

Moving to slide 22, and our approach to pricing and cost as we move into 2025. In terms of pricing, we will continue to utilize all the tools in our RGM playbook to minimize volume declines and limit elasticities. Thus protecting penetration and frequency of consumption.

轉到投影片 22，以及我們進入 2025 年時的定價和成本方法。在定價方面，我們將繼續利用 RGM 手冊中的所有工具來最大限度地減少銷售下降並限制彈性。從而保護滲透率和消費頻率。

We will keep price points especially for entry level and low unit items. We will also improve our participation at multiple price levels offering consumers more choices. Additionally, we will continue to reinvest in our brands primarily through working media. Cost management is another area of focus. We plan to take a targeted approach to managing costs by focusing on nonwork media, overheads and productivity.

我們將保留價格點，特別是對於入門級和低單位商品。我們也將提高多個價格水準的參與度，為消費者提供更多選擇。此外，我們將繼續主要透過工作媒體對我們的品牌進行再投資。成本管理是另一個重點領域。我們計劃透過專注於非工作媒體、管理費用和生產力來採取有針對性的方法來管理成本。

We will not take shortcuts or make temporary moves that disturb the business but rather focus on areas where we can make lasting changes. We will also not sacrifice key investments or product quality. Net, we are confident that we have a strong plan to navigate the headwinds presented by Coco next year. We will focus on what we can control and will remain agile as needed to ensure the long term health of this category while positioning ourselves to emerge stronger when cocoa prices settle at more sustainable levels.

我們不會走捷徑，也不會做出擾亂業務的臨時舉措，而是專注於可以做出持久改變的領域。我們也不會犧牲關鍵投資或產品品質。Net，我們相信我們有一個強而有力的計劃來應對明年 Coco 帶來的逆風。我們將專注於我們能夠控制的事情，並根據需要保持敏捷性，以確保該類別的長期健康發展，同時定位自己，以便在可可價格穩定在更可持續的水平時變得更加強大。

Turning into our outlook. Our outlook for 2024 remains unchanged. We continue to expect on a go delivery for revenue earnings per share growth and cash flow. Just a word on EPS. We continue to expect high single digit growth of a 2023 base that includes developed market gum. When you look at year-to-date margins, two things are clear aside from strong operating performance.

變成我們的展望。我們對 2024 年的展望保持不變。我們繼續預期每股收益成長和現金流將持續成長。簡單說一下 EPS。我們繼續預期 2023 年基數（包括已開發市場口香糖）將出現高個位數成長。當你看看今年迄今為止的利潤率時，除了強勁的經營業績之外，還有兩件事是顯而易見的。

First, we procure cocoa and much better prices than the market. And second, we price the replacement cost. Thus, profit growth has been quite good. On the other side, Q4 is a bit of an anomaly as we procure cocoa for Q4 close to peak if not at peak prices. While at the same time, we will not yet have the benefit of either additional pricing or planned cocoa savings initiatives in Q4.

首先，我們採購可可，價格比市場好得多。其次，我們將重置成本定價。因此，獲利成長相當不錯。另一方面，第四季度有點反常，因為我們第四季度採購的可可接近高峰（如果不是以峰值價格）。同時，我們也無法從第四季的額外定價或計畫中的可可節約計畫中受益。

While next year cocoa will be significantly higher than the average of 2024. It is projected to be lower than Q4 2024. Most of our other key assumptions remain consistent with what we shared with you on our last call with the exception of interest expenses, which is now estimated at $250 million for the year. Although it is premature to get into specifics around our '25 outlook. I would note a couple of items, the majority of our business which is not chocolate will be an algorithm.

而明年可可產量將顯著高於 2024 年的平均值。預計低於 2024 年第四季。我們的大多數其他關鍵假設與我們在上次電話會議中與您分享的內容保持一致，但利息支出除外，目前預計今年的利息支出為 2.5 億美元。儘管現在討論我們 25 年前景的具體細節還為時過早。我想指出幾點，我們的大部分業務（不是巧克力）將是一種演算法。

We expect peak cocoa pricing to be reflected in the first half of 2025. While chocolate margins should improve sequentially versus Q4, 2024. Our plans around pricing RGM and cost management are expected to be significant and help provide room for reinvestment. However, where we sit today. It is tough to see a path to earnings growth in 2025 unless cocoa adjusts down from the current future curve and or elasticities are much more benign than our current planning assumptions. Ergo, there will be additional pricing.

我們預計可可定價高峰將在 2025 年上半年反映出來。與 2024 年第四季相比，巧克力利潤率應會持續改善。我們圍繞 RGM 定價和成本管理的計劃預計將非常重要，並有助於為再投資提供空間。然而，我們今天坐的地方。除非可可從當前的未來曲線向下調整，或者彈性比我們目前的規劃假設溫和得多，否則很難看到 2025 年的獲利成長之路。因此，將會有額外的定價。

But as we said, a few times, we believe cocoa in 2026 is going to normalize and we would have a meaningful rebound of our chocolate profit to allow for us to get back on track with our algorithm. Clearly, we do not control cocoa prices but in the unlikely event that they would not normalize by 2026 our gradual approach to pricing seems still to be the best approach to take.

但正如我們多次所說的，我們相信 2026 年可可將恢復正常，我們的巧克力利潤將會出現有意義的反彈，從而讓我們的演算法重回正軌。顯然，我們無法控制可可價格，但萬一可可價格到 2026 年無法正常化，我們的漸進定價方法似乎仍然是最好的方法。

Overall, we feel good about the fundamentals of the business, our growth opportunities, the investments we are continuing to make in the business and our plans to navigate the short term cocoa dynamic. We expect to emerge from this period of elevated cocoa prices even stronger and better positioned for attractive sustainable earnings growth. We will provide more details related to 2025 at our year end call. Finally, a word on our space of the GDP shares.

總體而言，我們對業務的基本面、我們的成長機會、我們繼續在業務中進行的投資以及我們駕馭短期可可動態的計劃感到滿意。我們預計可可價格將在這段時期內走強，並為有吸引力的可持續盈利增長做好準備。我們將在年終電話會議上提供與 2025 年相關的更多詳細資訊。最後，談談我們的 GDP 份額空間。

We are happy overall with the return we realize on our coffee financial investments, some of the proceeds will be deployed immediately towards lowering our CP balance but eventually will be deployed towards buyback and to support M&A. There will be a modest dilution in Q4 with a full year $0.08 headwind. We will issue an 8-K with more details over the coming weeks.

總體而言，我們對咖啡金融投資實現的回報感到滿意，部分收益將立即用於降低我們的CP餘額，但最終將用於回購和支持併購。第四季將出現適度稀釋，全年阻力為 0.08 美元。我們將在未來幾週內發布包含更多詳細資訊的 8-K。

With that let's open the line for questions.

接下來，讓我們打開提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

安德魯·拉扎爾，巴克萊銀行。

Thanks so much. Good evening. Maybe Dirk first, I was hoping you could discuss the puts and takes in 3Q and maybe specifically how that shapes sort of your strategy and chocolate going forward, you know, in light of the challenges that cocoa is going to present next year.

非常感謝。晚安.也許是德克首先，我希望你能討論第三季度的投入和投入，也許具體是如何塑造你的戰略和巧克力的未來，你知道，鑑於可可明年將面臨的挑戰。

Yes. Hello Andrew. Well, overall, I would say we feel good about Q3, the results and also the dynamics that we see in there. So as you could see, we have a strong top line growth, we have positive volume mix and the consumer I would say in most places, it is holding up well developed markets came back with solid balanced growth in North America and also Europe strengthening again and the emerging markets remain solid. There's a few pockets of softness there, but we have clear plans to address that.

是的。你好安德魯。嗯，總的來說，我想說我們對第三季的結果以及我們在其中看到的動態感覺良好。正如您所看到的，我們的收入成長強勁，我們的銷售組合良好，我想說的是，在大多數地方，它支撐著發達市場的回歸，北美和歐洲的穩健平衡增長再次走強新興市場依然穩健。雖然存在一些弱點，但我們有明確的計劃來解決這個問題。

We continue to invest in working media in our brands. We and our bottom line was very strong with good free cash flow results. So we can't complain, I would say about our quarter and I feel, I think the feeling that the top line will continue to be robus into next year is certainly there because we feel that overall the business is quite healthy and we have very good activities planned for next year.

我們繼續投資於我們品牌的工作媒體。我們和我們的利潤非常強勁，自由現金流結果良好。所以我們不能抱怨，我想說的是我們的季度，我覺得，我認為明年的收入將繼續保持穩健的感覺肯定是存在的，因為我們覺得整體業務相當健康，我們有非常明年計劃好的活動。

Yeah, chocolate is a challenge but we are quite clear on which principles we have and what vision we have to deal with the cocoa challenge. Our first focus is to protect the health of the chocolate category, which is a great category. And our second one is of course, within that category to hold or gain market share and taking an overall long term approach to how the category will develop and how our business will develop.

是的，巧克力是一個挑戰，但我們非常清楚應對可可挑戰的原則和願景。我們的首要重點是保護巧克力類別的健康，這是一個很棒的類別。我們的第二個目標當然是在該類別中保持或獲得市場份額，並對該類別的發展以及我們的業務將如何發展採取整體長期的方法。

We have to price next year, but we are very conscious of making sure that we protect key price points and certain thresholds. So we're doing a lot of work on our low unit pricing in emerging markets or entry level pricing in developed markets. And we are launching a bunch of new sizes in our chocolate business.

我們必須明年定價，但我們非常有意識地確保保護關鍵價格點和某些門檻。因此，我們在新興市場的低單位定價或已開發市場的入門級定價方面做了大量工作。我們正在巧克力業務中推出一系列新尺寸。

I think our RGM plans are well thought through. We just went through everything with all the different business units that we have. And I think the work that has been done is very strong and we've really thought through how we think the category will evolve in the coming months. We are planning to continue to invest in our brands, but we did look at all the non-working media and are aiming for some significant efficiencies there.

我認為我們的 RGM 計劃是經過深思熟慮的。我們剛剛與我們擁有的所有不同業務部門進行了所有的工作。我認為已經完成的工作非常強大，我們認真思考了該類別在未來幾個月將如何發展。我們計劃繼續投資我們的品牌，但我們確實研究了所有非工作媒體，並致力於提高那裡的效率。

And then of course, we will also work on our other costs, particularly overhead costs next year so that we can deliver what I would call a reasonable financial result overall. The rest of our business as usual. Maybe a few more things in the sense that we are not taking any shortcuts for short term gains next year. We do realize that there is additional pricing and we will have some extra pressure. But overall, as I said before, we think chocolate is an outstanding category and we are fully committed to it.

當然，我們也將處理其他成本，特別是明年的管理費用，以便我們能夠實現我所說的合理的整體財務結果。其餘的事情我們照常進行。也許還有更多事情，從某種意義上說，我們明年不會為短期收益走任何捷徑。我們確實意識到存在額外的定價，我們將面臨一些額外的壓力。但總的來說，正如我之前所說，我們認為巧克力是一個出色的類別，我們完全致力於它。

And the other maybe things can go different as it relates to reaction to pricing. We have assumed normal elasticities, but that could be more or less or cocoa pricing is still very volatile it could be more or less than we planned. So being agile next year and how we deal with those situations will be another critical thing for us, I believe. I hope that helps you.

另一方面，事情可能會有所不同，因為它與對定價的反應有關。我們假設了正常的彈性，但這可能或多或少，或者可可價格仍然非常不穩定，它可能會高於或低於我們的計劃。因此，我相信，明年的敏捷性以及如何處理這些情況對我們來說將是另一個至關重要的事情。我希望這對你有幫助。

Yeah, no, very helpful. I appreciate that. Thank you. And then just a quick follow up, Luca, I realize obviously you're not prepared to provide detailed '25 guidance yet. The fourth quarter, as you mentioned, it's the first one where you'll see, the impact of significantly higher cocoa costs. So I guess how does the 4Q implied guidance? Which looks for EPS, I think down some, 20% or so year over year inform the way we should think about next year, whatever else you can share along those lines knowing you're not going to provide the full thing yet. Thank you.

是的，不，非常有幫助。我很欣賞這一點。謝謝。然後快速跟進，Luca，我顯然意識到您還沒有準備好提供詳細的 25 年指導。正如您所提到的，第四季度是您將看到的第一個季度，可可成本大幅上漲的影響。那我猜4Q 暗示的指引是怎麼樣的呢？我認為每股收益同比下降了一些，大約 20% 左右，這告訴我們明年應該如何思考，知道你還不會提供完整的信息，你可以沿著這些思路分享任何其他內容。謝謝。

Thank you, Andrew. I mean, I will start by saying that we are clearly very happy with EPS on a year-to-date basis and that I think will help us understanding a little bit better Q4 next year. We have landed today all pricing in line with our expectations and we are in general priced to a level that is higher than our actual cost of cocoa for the first three quarters. As our cocoa buying strategies have been clearly quite advantageous compared to in market cost.

謝謝你，安德魯。我的意思是，我首先要說的是，我們顯然對今年迄今為止的每股收益非常滿意，我認為這將有助於我們更好地理解明年第四季的情況。今天我們的所有定價都符合我們的預期，而且我們的定價總體高於前三個季度可可的實際成本。因為與市場成本相比，我們的可可採購策略顯然非常有利。

As you rightly point out the implied EPS Q4 based on us, the affirming guidance is down year on year. But I said in the preparing mark that I see that as a sort of anomaly. First of all, because cocoa costs for Q4 were locked in when cocoa was at peak value. And second, clearly in the numbers in Q4, there is no effect of additional pricing or for that matter of the cost measures that we will put in place as of the beginning of 2025.

正如您正確指出的基於我們的隱含第四季度每股收益，肯定的指導意見同比下降。但我在準備中說過，我認為這是一種反常現象。首先，因為第四季度的可可成本是在可可處於峰值時鎖定的。其次，從第四季的數據來看，額外定價或我們將在 2025 年初實施的成本措施並沒有產生影響。

Bear in mind that in 2025 pricing will not flow through as of day one. And so it will take a little bit of time for profits to improve. And quite frankly, profit improvement is more towards the second half of the year. Please also consider as we talk about 2025 that cocoa costs are lower in the second half versus F1. On '25 I can tell you that we have done a lot of work in scrutinizing all our costs and we will be removing sizable costs particularly in the area of overheads and non-productive media expenses.

請記住，到 2025 年，定價不會從第一天起就生效。因此，利潤的改善還需要一點時間。坦白說，利潤改善更多是在下半年。也請考慮到，當我們談論 2025 年時，下半年的可可成本比 F1 更低。在 25 年，我可以告訴你，我們在審查所有成本方面做了很多工作，我們將消除相當大的成本，特別是在管理費用和非生產性媒體費用方面。

We have increased the amount of productivity that we will be delivering to our supply chain and we have clearly a full slate of initiative in our GM that should limit elasticities. As I said, it is hard to see a path to EPS growth into 2025 unless cocoa adjust down materially. And that is still a possibility and all elasticities are more benign allowing us to price more.

我們提高了供應鏈的生產力，我們的總經理顯然採取了一系列限制彈性的措施。正如我所說，除非可可大幅下調，否則很難看到 2025 年每股收益將出現成長。這仍然是一種可能性，所有彈性都更加溫和，使我們能夠定價更高。

We have seen as of late fall in the price increases we put in place in Europe, for instance, that elasticities have been fairly benign. So if we realize that volume is there, we might push price a little bit more forward in an attempt to offset the cocoa impact that we will have inevitably next year.

例如，我們看到最近我們在歐洲實行的價格上漲有所下降，彈性相當溫和。因此，如果我們意識到銷量存在，我們可能會將價格推高一點，以抵消明年不可避免的可可影響。

Ken Goldman, JP Morgan.

肯‧戈德曼，摩根大通。

Hi, thank you. Good afternoon. I had one question on North America and then a follow up. North America, the comment was made that your categories are sort of bucking the it seems to be a larger, more challenged trend across snacking. And you did mention RGM as being part of it. I appreciate that just trying to get a sense what you're seeing as the other factors that is allowing or that are allowing your categories to do better than what we're seeing kind of elsewhere across that broader snacking continuum someone once said.

你好，謝謝。午安.我有一個關於北美的問題，然後進行了跟進。北美，有人評論說你們的品類有點逆反，這似乎是零食領域更大、更具挑戰性的趨勢。您確實提到 RGM 是其中的一部分。我很欣賞，只是試著了解你所看到的其他因素，這些因素允許或允許你的類別比我們在更廣泛的零食連續體中看到的其他因素做得更好，有人曾經說過。

Yeah, can be the, I would say that the category is growing modestly and is improving slightly and I would say that overall, we see the consumer also getting more confident but high prices remain certainly a big concern, high food prices I would say and consumers clearly feel that their purchasing power is deteriorating particularly, I would say in the lower income consumers, they are the ones that feel most of the pressure.

是的，可以是，我想說的是，這個類別正在溫和增長，並且略有改善，我想說的是，總的來說，我們看到消費者也變得更有信心，但高價格肯定仍然是一個大問題，我想說的是高食品價格和消費者明顯感覺到自己的購買力在下降，尤其是低收入消費者中，他們是感受到壓力最大的。

I would say that as it relates to our categories. First of all, we have recognized that the perception of value of the consumer has changed. And if you go two years back, consumers were really shopping for the price per pack or the unit price and so family sizes and party sizes became very important. Going forward or since a few months now, two quarters, I would say many consumers that are below a certain income level have to shop by the total size of their basket.

我這麼說是因為它與我們的類別有關。首先，我們體認到消費者的價值觀念已經改變了。如果你回到兩年前，消費者真正購買的是每包的價格或單價，因此家庭規模和聚會規模變得非常重要。展望未來，或從幾個月、兩個季度開始，我想說，許多低於一定收入水平的消費者必須按籃子的總規模進行購物。

I would say that that biscuits remain important for them. It is part of most shopping baskets. And as a consequence, we needed to fit our products within that shopping basket. And that meant that particularly the $3 to $4 price point has become very important. And so in Q3, we have worked with promotions to bring our products there and going forward, we have launched a range of new packs on Chips Ahoy, on Oreo, that will be sold at 299.

我想說餅乾對他們來說仍然很重要。它是大多數購物籃的一部分。因此，我們需要將我們的產品放入購物籃中。這意味著 3 至 4 美元的價格點變得非常重要。因此，在第三季度，我們與促銷活動合作，將我們的產品帶到那裡，展望未來，我們在 Chips Ahoy 和 Oreo 上推出了一系列新包裝，售價為 299 美元。

And so we think that's the way we are bucking the trend really. So on one hand categories that the consumer really doesn't want to do without. And so the overall category is pretty stable. And on top of that, we're starting to gain some market share because we are hitting the right price points right now.

所以我們認為這就是我們真正逆潮流而動的方式。因此，一方面是消費者真正不想沒有的類別。所以整體類別相當穩定。最重要的是，我們開始獲得一些市場份額，因為我們現在達到了合適的價格點。

Thank you for that. And then for my follow up, I wanted to make sure I understood the comment about next year, the majority of the portfolio be growing within Algo on the top line is the implication that part of the portfolio, the minority will not be within IGO. And this just trying to get a real sense of what the messaging was there about the top line next year. Just given all the puts and takes about elasticity and pricing and so forth.

謝謝你。然後，對於我的後續行動，我想確保我理解關於明年的評論，大部分投資組合將在 Algo 內增長，最重要的是，投資組合的一部分，少數將不在 IGO 內。這只是為了真正了解明年營收的資訊。剛剛給出了所有關於彈性和定價等的看跌期權和期權。

Yeah, it's basically related to our mix of different categories that we have. We have 70% of our business that is nonchocolate and that is the part that we are expecting to be in line with our normal algo and then the chocolate part will not be in line with our Algo. That's what we were referring to.

是的，這基本上與我們不同類別的組合有關。我們 70% 的業務不是巧克力，我們希望這部分業務符合我們的正常演算法，但巧克力部分將不符合我們的演算法。這就是我們所指的。

On the bottom line specifically.

特別是在底線。

On the bottom line. So that was a bottom line comment just to make sure.

在底線上。所以這是一個底線評論，只是為了確定。

Yes, I said that 70% of the portfolio is on algo. The remaining part which is chocolate is not going to be on algo on the bottom line.

是的，我說過 70% 的投資組合是基於演算法的。剩下的巧克力部分不會出現在演算法的底線。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

You see a pretty strong top line for next year.

你會看到明年的收入相當強勁。

No, that's helpful. Thank you. I appreciate it guys.

不，這很有幫助。謝謝。我很感激你們。

Yeah, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

John Baumgartner, Mizuho Securities.

約翰·鮑姆加特納，瑞穗證券。

Good afternoon. Thanks for the question.

午安.謝謝你的提問。

Dirk. I I'd like to ask about the growth plans for cakes and pastries and if you could speak to your vision there, to what extent do you view the company as sort of a disruptor in the space where there's unique capabilities in biscuits and confection that you can sort of leverage and baked goods and in light of Evirth in that frozen cake technology, the capabilities from that to what extent is that a China specific opportunity relative to one that can be expanded to Europe, North America, some other markets, just maybe your thoughts on where you see your advantages competing in the big good space. Thank you.

短劍。我想問一下蛋糕和糕點的成長計劃，如果您能談談您的願景，您在多大程度上認為該公司是該領域的顛覆者，該領域在餅乾和糖果領域擁有獨特的能力，您可以利用烘焙食品，根據Evirth 在冷凍蛋糕技術方面的能力，這種能力在多大程度上是中國特定的機會，相對於可以擴展到歐洲、北美和其他一些市場的機會，只是也許您對在廣闊的美好空間中看到自己的優勢競爭的想法。謝謝。

Yes. Well, cakes and pastries, packaged cakes and pastries is a $95 billion category. It's much bigger if you include the non-package, but that's not the area that we consider as where we want to play. It is a category that's already growing 7% CAGR over the last five years. And in fact, a low double-digit over the last two years, per kilogram, it's higher value than the biscuits category.

是的。好吧，蛋糕和糕點、包裝蛋糕和糕點是一個價值 950 億美元的類別。如果包括非套餐的話，它會大得多，但這不是我們認為我們想要玩的區域。這一類別在過去五年中複合年增長率已達到 7%。事實上，在過去兩年中，每公斤的價值為兩位數，比餅乾類別的價值更高。

And the category is quite strong in some of the key markets where we play US, Europe, China. The opportunity is that it's a highly fragmented category. We are number three globally, but we only have a 3.5% share. So there is an opportunity to bring in known brands that come with a certain quality aspect and a certain positioning, but also by offering soft cakes or pastries that are in line with that brand from the biscuit category.

此類別在我們在美國、歐洲、中國等一些主要市場中表現相當強勁。機會在於它是一個高度分散的類別。我們在全球排名第三，但僅佔 3.5% 的份額。因此，我們有機會引入具有一定品質和一定定位的知名品牌，同時也可以提供與餅乾類別中的該品牌相符的軟蛋糕或糕點。

So an Oreo to play in that category, for instance, or some of our other brands that is really the way we are thinking about it. Now, there's different techniques in producing these products. Evirth particularly we already have a company that goes from frozen to fresh in the store, which is Give and Go in Canada, which is a company that has been growing very fast.

例如，奧利奧（Oreo）就屬於該類別，或者我們的一些其他品牌，這確實是我們思考的方式。現在，生產這些產品有不同的技術。尤其是Evirth，我們店裡已經有一家從冷凍到新鮮的公司，就是加拿大的Give and Go，這是一家發展非常快的公司。

And Evirth is similar, but to the sense that they are much more into the cake segment. In China, this category is really booming, these are quite sophisticated products and I have to say that the quality that they can produce thanks to their proprietary way of producing is quite exceptional. And so we think that first of all, in China, this is a big opportunity, the business has been growing serious double-digit for the last years.

Evirth 也很相似，但從某種意義上說，他們更專注於蛋糕領域。在中國，這個類別確實正在蓬勃發展，這些都是相當複雜的產品，我不得不說，由於其專有的生產方式，他們所生產的品質非常出色。因此，我們認為，首先，在中國，這是一個巨大的機遇，過去幾年該業務一直以兩位數的速度成長。

And we can see a long runway of possibilities, but we have started to think about, okay, how can we expand this to the rest of the world because the quality is so high. But for the time being, our first priority is to make sure that we get the strong growth that we would like to see in China.

我們可以看到很長的可能性，但我們已經開始思考，好吧，我們如何將其擴展到世界其他地方，因為品質如此之高。但目前，我們的首要任務是確保中國實現我們希望看到的強勁成長。

Thanks.

謝謝。

David Palmer, Evercore ISI.

大衛·帕爾默，Evercore ISI。

Thanks. The comment on your comments on '25 were pretty clear in saying that you see hard to see a path EPS growth in '25 and that would likely require a breakdown in cocoa or sustained benign price elasticity that could enable perhaps earlier price offsets to what you're seeing. I wonder right now, obviously, you don't have that visibility into that. And I wonder what the reality would be, when that reality would be that you could essentially feel like you could give a pretty narrow range of EPS outcomes for '25.

謝謝。關於您對“25”的評論的評論非常清楚地表明，您很難看到“25”的每股收益增長路徑，這可能需要可可的崩潰或持續良性的價格彈性，這可能會導致更早的價格抵消您的預期正在看到。我現在想知道，顯然，你對此沒有這樣的了解。我想知道現實會是什麼，當現實是你基本上會覺得你可以給出 25 年每股收益結果的範圍相當狹窄時。

Is it something that like by the first quarter earnings, you would have that sort of a time frame where you have pricing in place you're seeing the reaction from that. Perhaps you're a little further into your cocoa price setting for the year. I'm just wondering about the timing.

是不是像第一季收益那樣，你會有一個時間框架，在這個時間框架內你已經定價，你會看到反應。也許您對今年的可可價格設定有了進一步的了解。我只是想知道時間安排。

Look, I think here as I said, there are two elements that will come into play. One is cocoa prices. There has been some nervousness in the market as of late, but we believe that it is the result of the fact that the industry is still quite short and that the Ivory Coast has hardly sold any 24, 25 crop in the last month. Since they are waiting for the new crop to materialize on the fundamentals of cocoa.

看，我認為正如我所說，有兩個因素將發揮作用。一是可可價。最近市場出現了一些緊張情緒，但我們認為這是由於該行業仍然相當短缺，而且科特迪瓦上個月幾乎沒有銷售任何 24、25 季作物。因為他們正在等待新作物在可可的基本面上實現。

The latest pop count is likely below the five year average in Ivory Coast, same in Ghana, but it is well up versus last year. And the level of confidence that we have at this at this point in time is around about 85% but it will be soon in the next couple of weeks, three weeks and 90%. Importantly, the Ivory Coast portal are up 25% already versus prior year.

科特迪瓦和加納的最新人口數量可能低於五年平均水平，但與去年相比大幅上升。目前我們對此的信心水準約為 85%，但在接下來的幾週、三週內很快就會達到 90%。重要的是，象牙海岸門戶網站比去年增長了 25%。

And that really points in the direction of good supply coming our way. So I expect to have clarity on cocoa prices, call it in the next month or couple of months. I think the situation will be much clear, much more clear. Importantly, what will try cocoa prices is the arrival in Europe, which will be most likely in January, February. And I think by then, we should really have a sense of cocoa cost.

這確實表明我們將迎來良好的供應。因此，我希望可可價格能夠澄清，並在下個月或幾個月內公佈。我認為情況將會更加清晰，更加清晰。重要的是，將考驗可可價格的是歐洲的到來，最有可能在一月、二月。我認為到那時，我們應該真正了解可可的成本。

That is important because in our case, we haven't locked in cocoa prices yet. We want to take advantage of the potential a decline of cocoa cost albeit we want also to be protected on the upper side of course, on the other side, on the other level of elasticity. Look, I think, you know that it takes a little bit of time to implement price in Europe.

這很重要，因為就我們而言，我們尚未鎖定可可價格。我們希望利用可可成本下降的潛力，當然我們也希望在較高的一面受到保護，在另一方面，在另一個彈性水平上。聽著，我想，你知道在歐洲實施價格需要一點時間。

And I think we're going to see in places like the UK where we don't have buying alliances, we are going to see the effect of elasticities much earlier. And quite honestly, from what we see today, they are already quite good in terms of not having a big impact. For the rest of Europe we will have to wait towards the end of Q1, beginning of Q2. In emerging markets as I said, we're going to price quite rapidly, but there we will protect price points in the entry level. So a long way to say cocoa cost should be clear by the end of this year, beginning of Q1 and prices particularly in Europe will be much clearer towards the end of Q1, beginning of Q2.

我認為我們將看到在像英國這樣沒有購買聯盟的地方，我們將更早看到彈性的影響。老實說，從我們今天看到的情況來看，它們在沒有太大影響方面已經相當不錯了。對於歐洲其他地區，我們將不得不等待第一季末、第二季初。正如我所說，在新興市場，我們將相當迅速地定價，但我們將保護入門級的價格點。因此，很長一段時間以來，可可成本應該在今年年底、第一季初就明確，特別是在歐洲的價格將在第一季末、第二季初更加明確。

So that's very helpful. And I guess I wanted just to pick your brain on just the US snacking can ask you about why cookies perhaps is doing towards the high end of the snacking category, which is historically weak right now. Obviously, you're a global snacking player and you participate in confectionery outside the US in a bigger way. But confectionery in the US is particularly weak. I'm wondering why do you think, confectionery in the US is so weak right now? And if there's any sort of interesting juxtapositions you could create between those two, what you see, for example, in developed market Europe and with chocolate and the price receptivity, for example, and the consumer versus what we see in the US, which seems to be pretty rough right now. Thanks.

這非常有幫助。我想我只是想請您思考一下美國零食可以問您為什麼餅乾可能正在向零食類別的高端方向發展，而目前該類別在歷史上一直處於弱勢。顯然，您是一家全球零食企業，並且更廣泛地參與美國以外的糖果行業。但美國的糖果業尤其疲軟。我想知道你認為為什麼美國的糖果現在這麼弱？如果你可以在這兩者之間創造任何有趣的並置，例如你在歐洲已開發市場看到的巧克力和價格接受度，以及消費者與我們在美國看到的情況，這似乎現在變得相當粗糙。謝謝。

Look, it's really tough for us to comment about the chocolate market in the USA because as you know, we have a small participation in that market and be because there are other companies that might have a much better point of view. What we can tell you is in Europe and in emerging markets, our brands have been built consistently over the years.

看，我們真的很難評論美國的巧克力市場，因為如您所知，我們在該市場的參與度很小，並且因為有其他公司可能有更好的觀點。我們可以告訴您的是，在歐洲和新興市場，我們的品牌多年來一直在不斷建立。

In terms of distribution support, price point, we have never pulled back a dollar since the in terms of advertising, we have been increasing consistently. Our marketing capabilities with our Chief Marketing Officer have improved dramatically. The execution is there so I think in our case, at least we have been consistent in executing and investing and increasing distribution of our brands throughout. And look, we are lucky to have our brands maybe, but those have been built by people at Mongolies and we are very proud of that.

在分銷支援、價格點方面，自從在廣告方面我們一直在持續增加以來，我們從未撤回過一美元。我們的首席行銷長的行銷能力得到了顯著提高。執行力就在那裡，所以我認為就我們而言，至少我們在執行和投資以及增加我們品牌的分銷方面始終如一。看，我們可能很幸運擁有我們的品牌，但這些品牌是由蒙古人打造的，我們對此感到非常自豪。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

彼得‧加爾博，美國銀行。

Hey guys, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question.

嘿夥計們，下午好。感謝您提出問題。

Luca, I just wanted to actually circle back on your comment on '25 EPS, you know, the path to difficult growth. Just for real clarity. Does that also include the dilution from JDE or is that on a like for like basis? Just so we're crystal clear?

盧卡，我只是想回顧一下你對「25 EPS 的評論，你知道，這是一條艱難的成長之路」。只是為了真正清晰。這是否還包括 JDE 的稀釋，還是基於同等基礎？只是為了讓我們一清二楚嗎？

No, I was quoting like for like we will issue in due time. An 8-K, you might imagine by looking at the multiple of JDP, even when we got 30% premium to the unaffected stock price, you might imagine that multiple is lower compared to ours. So even if you know, we had to buy back our stock, there will be some sort of volution which is not something that I meant to comment upon when I was telling you that we don't see a path to EPS growth into next year.

不，我是在引用類似的內容，我們將在適當的時候發布。8-K，您可能會透過查看 JDP 的倍數來想像，即使我們比未受影響的股票價格有 30% 的溢價，您也可能會想像倍數比我們的要低。因此，即使您知道，我們必須回購我們的股票，也會出現某種變化，當我告訴您我們看不到明年每股收益成長的道路時，我無意對此發表評論。

Got it. Okay. No, that's helpful. Thank you. And just to go back to Europe, I think you were expecting a bit of pipeline fill in the quarter post the customer disruptions. Just curious if you can unpack that a bit more. Just did it, did it come in where you kind of thought it would? Is there an expectation of more of that? Just in the fourth quarter? Any additional color would be helpful? Thanks very much.

知道了。好的。不，這很有幫助。謝謝。回到歐洲，我認為您預計在客戶中斷後的季度中會有一些管道填充。只是好奇你是否可以進一步解壓它。剛剛做了，它到達了你想像的地方嗎？是否還有更多這樣的期望？就在第四季嗎？任何額外的顏色會有幫助嗎？非常感謝。

Look, there was not much. I mean there was pipeline building particularly at the beginning of the quarter, but it was pipeline for back to school activities. I can tell you, for instance, that impact is not really material at all. Again, quite frankly, in the case of the UK, we had planned to ship some Christmas already in Q3 that didn't happen, it's going to happen in Q4. So all in all, I wouldn't call the pipeline effect in Europe as material.

看看，沒有太多。我的意思是，特別是在本季初，有管道建設，但這是返校活動的管道。例如，我可以告訴你，這種影響根本不是實質的。坦白說，就英國而言，我們原計劃在第三季就推出一些聖誕節產品，但這並沒有實現，而是將在第四季實現。總而言之，我不會將歐洲的管道效應稱為物質效應。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

克里斯凱裡，富國銀行證券。

Hi, good evening. So Luca, this is a follow up question then I'll just ask, you know, one quick one but you know, on the, on the confidence around cocoa in the coming three to four week, say, relative to just your expectations for next year. Can you just talk about how much flexibility you might have to respond from a productivity standpoint, say if, if those expectations get worse over the next month or obviously, we know if they get better, that's obviously helpful.

嗨，晚上好。盧卡，這是一個後續問題，然後我會問，你知道，一個快速的問題，但你知道，關於未來三到四周內對可可的信心，比如說，相對於你對可可的期望明年。您能否談談從生產力的角度來看您可能需要多大的靈活性來應對，比如說，如果這些預期在下個月變得更糟，或者顯然，我們知道它們是否會變得更好，這顯然是有幫助的。

But just as you think about the ability to manage through different variability and maybe hold to the expectations that you have for next year as you sit here today, just how much flexibility do you have to respond within your early budgets if say things get worse from the overhead or the productivity or the other things that you mentioned.

但是，正如您今天坐在這裡思考管理不同變化的能力，並可能堅持對明年的期望一樣，如果情況變得更糟，您在早期預算內必須有多大的靈活性來應對間接費用或生產力或您提到的其他事情。

So we have a clear covert strategies, I think at this point in time, we have a good part of our 2025 cocoa needs covered and all protected. And now the way you have to think about it is we put in place futures for around about half of the needs that we have. And when we put that in place, I was very clear that we covered mostly the second part of the year as the structure is inverted.

因此，我們有明確的隱藏策略，我認為目前我們 2025 年可可需求的很大一部分已得到滿足並受到全部保護。現在你必須考慮的是，我們為大約一半的需求制定了未來。當我們把它落實到位時，我非常清楚，我們涵蓋了今年下半年的大部分時間，因為結構是倒置的。

And so you have a benefit by going further out. The rest is covered through mostly colors and would allow us to really participate if the market had to adjust down. But at the same time protecting the upside exposure. So we have quite a bit of flexibility, I would say on the should the market adjust the pricing plans. And there is a big part of RGM.

因此，走得更遠是有好處的。其餘部分主要由顏色覆蓋，如果市場必須向下調整，我們將能夠真正參與其中。但同時保護上行風險。因此，我想說的是，在市場是否應該調整定價計畫方面，我們有相當大的彈性。RGM 佔很大一部分。

I would say, I think one-third of the pricing next year is going to be done through RGM. That is maybe a little bit less flexible, but the rest provide us with some flexibility. So if we see elasticities being more benign, we could hump up the pricing there or if for that matter, we see more severe volume, the action we could lower prices a little bit more. So we have built that flexibility into the plan.

我想說，我認為明年三分之一的定價將透過 RGM 完成。這可能有點不太靈活，但其餘的為我們提供了一些靈活性。因此，如果我們看到彈性更加溫和，我們可能會提高那裡的定價，或者如果我們看到成交量更加嚴重，我們可能會進一步降低價格。因此，我們將這種靈活性納入了計劃中。

Okay. Thanks. And then just one quick follow up on a couple of regions. Latin America volume has decelerated a bit here through the year. We've been hearing that from another, a number of your global peers just around hitting kind of tougher comps relative to last year. Can you just comment on the underlying in the business right now? And then on the China piece, you mentioned, you're seeing some optimism there. Is that something you're seeing or this is just optimism at this point? So that's it for me, thanks.

好的。謝謝。然後對幾個地區進行快速跟進。拉丁美洲的銷量全年略有放緩。我們從另一個人那裡聽說，與去年相比，你們的一些全球同行的競爭更加激烈。現在您能評論一下業務的基本情況嗎？然後，在有關中國的文章中，您提到，您看到了一些樂觀情緒。這是您所看到的嗎？這對我來說就是這樣，謝謝。

Yes. Well on Latin America, I would say overall, we still feel pretty good about Latin America. It is true that the volume has started to go into negative territory, but that is driven largely by Mexico in our case. Brazil, we still see a very strong performance and also in what we call Wacom, which is largely everything else except Argentina.

是的。關於拉丁美洲，我想說，總體而言，我們對拉丁美洲的感覺仍然很好。確實，成交量已經開始進入負值區域，但在我們的例子中，這主要是由墨西哥推動的。巴西，我們仍然看到非常強勁的表現，我們稱之為 Wacom 的表現也非常強勁，除了阿根廷以外，基本上都是其他國家。

So it is really concentrated in one country and there, it's largely because we have some pricing adjustments that we need to do, particularly in the candy and the chocolate categories. But for instance, gum meals and Oreo are doing quite well in Mexico. So I wouldn't feel that Latin America is particularly a major problem area for us, but it certainly has slowed down versus what it was in the previous quarters.

因此，它實際上集中在一個國家，這主要是因為我們需要進行一些定價調整，特別是在糖果和巧克力類別中。但舉例來說，口香糖和奧利奧在墨西哥的表現相當不錯。因此，我不認為拉丁美洲對我們來說是一個特別大的問題地區，但與前幾季相比，它確實已經放緩。

We will take our final question from Tom.

我們將回答湯姆的最後一個問題。

Sorry, sorry. Excuse me, sorry, I still need to talk about China and why we see optimism.

對不起，對不起。對不起，對不起，我仍然需要談談中國以及為什麼我們看到樂觀情緒。

So overall, we have a very good performance in China. Businesses are doing quite well. We have mid-single digit volume mix growth, we have high single digit net revenue growth. So despite the economic slowdown, we feel pretty good and I wasn't talking about our optimism. I think there's some consumer optimism because the government has released some economic boosting policy which we are monitoring and we think that it is going to affect overall consumer thinking and consumer buying.

所以總的來說，我們在中國的表現非常好。企業經營得相當不錯。我們的銷售組合實現了中個位數的成長，淨收入也實現了高個位數的成長。因此，儘管經濟放緩，但我們感覺很好，我並不是在談論我們的樂觀情緒。我認為消費者持樂觀態度，因為政府已經發布了一些我們正在監控的經濟刺激政策，我們認為這將影響整體消費者思維和消費者購買。

We think our category biscuits will be stable with some big shifts in channels towards snack chains and club warehouses, which are for instance, out of the Nielsen scope. So that is something that is on top of what you can see in the data. So we think overall driven by a strong category and the distribution gains that we have, we're probably more optimistic about China than most other companies. But we do feel an underlying trend that the consumer is getting in more positive territory.

我們認為我們的餅乾類別將保持穩定，通路將發生一些重大轉變，轉向零食連鎖店和俱樂部倉庫，例如，這超出了尼爾森的範圍。這就是你在數據中看到的內容之外的東西。因此，我們認為總體而言，在強大的類別和我們擁有的分銷收益的推動下，我們可能比大多數其他公司對中國更樂觀。但我們確實感受到了一個潛在趨勢，消費者正在進入更積極的領域。

Tom Palmer, Citi.

湯姆·帕爾默，花旗銀行。

Good evening. And thank you. I wanted to ask first on the organic sales growth. The guidance would seem to imply an acceleration in the fourth quarter perhaps even versus what we saw in 3Q. Could you help frame the regions in which this improvement might be most apparent? And then just to confirm this would be volume driven or are there some pricing actions to consider in the fourth quarter with then more coming in 2025.

晚安.謝謝你。我想先詢問有機銷售成長。該指引似乎意味著第四季的成長速度甚至可能與我們在第三季看到的情況相比。您能否幫助確定這種改進可能最明顯的區域？然後只是為了確認這將是銷售驅動的，或者是否需要在第四季度考慮一些定價行動，然後在 2025 年採取更多行動。

As far as pricing is concerned at this point in time we have done. And so there is no sequential additional pricing coming into effect in Q4. I think you're going to see strong performance in North America, you're going to see strong performance in AMAE which by the way we start lapping the boycotts in that started last year in Q4.

就定價而言，目前我們已經完成了。因此，第四季不會有連續的額外定價生效。我認為你會看到北美的強勁表現，你會看到 AMAE 的強勁表​​現，順便說一句，我們開始抵制去年第四季開始的抵制活動。

And then I think in Europe, you are going to see strong results as well. Latin America, we have been a little bit more conservative, but I think there should be a little bit of an improvement there too. Look in the end, if you do the imply go trade for Q4 in light of us, the affirming guidance on top line, which is, as we said at the high end of the three to five IGO, you should get to a Q4. That is a little bit higher than what Q3 has been.

然後我認為在歐洲，你也會看到強大的成果。拉丁美洲，我們有點保守，但我認為那裡也應該有一點改進。最後，如果你根據我們的觀點對第四季度進行暗示交易，即頂線的肯定指導，正如我們在三到五個 IGO 的高端所說的那樣，你應該進入第四季度。這比第三季的水平要高一些。

Okay. Thanks for that.

好的。謝謝你。

Okay, I think that was the last question. Sure. Well, thank you for attending the call strong quarter and we hope that we will do well in 2025 also. And I hope you got convinced that our plans are in place to make that happen. Talk to you next time. Thank you.

好吧，我想這是最後一個問題。當然。好吧，感謝您參加強勁季度的電話會議，我們希望我們在 2025 年也能取得好成績。我希望您確信我們的計劃已經到位，可以實現這一目標。下次再和你聊。謝謝。

Thank you everyone.

謝謝大家。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

謝謝各位，女士們先生們，今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。