億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Today's call is scheduled to last about one hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加億滋國際2024年第二季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約一小時，包括億滋國際管理層的演講和問答環節。（操作說明）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Vice -- Senior Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想把電話交給億滋國際投資者關係資深副總裁謝普‧鄧拉普先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides, which are available on our website. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today.

下午好，感謝各位的參與。今天陪同我的是我們的董事長兼執行長 Dirk Van de Put，以及我們的財務長 Luca Zaramella。今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿和演示文稿，這些內容可以在我們的網站上找到。在本次電話會議中，我們將對公司的績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些說法是基於我們今天看待事物的方式。

Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties.

由於風險和不確定因素，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。

Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on our forward-looking statements. As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results. In addition, we provide year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis unless otherwise noted. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳情，請參閱我們 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。今天，當我們討論績效時，除非另有說明，否則我們將參考非GAAP財務指標，這些指標會根據GAAP業績中包含的某些項目進行調整。此外，除非另有說明，否則我們提供的年成長率均以固定匯率計算。您可以在我們的獲利報告中以及投影片簡報的背面找到可比較的 GAAP 指標以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。

Today, Dirk will provide a business strategy update followed by a review of our financial results and outlook by Luca. We will close with Q&A. I'll now turn the call over to Dirk.

今天，Dirk 將帶來最新的業務策略報告，隨後 Luca 將對我們的財務業績和展望進行回顧。最後我們將進行問答環節。現在我將把電話交給德克。

Thanks, Shep, and thanks to everyone for joining the call today. I will start on slide 4.

謝謝謝普，也謝謝今天參加電話會議的各位。我將從第4張投影片開始。

I am pleased to share that we delivered a solid first half to the year with strong profit dollar growth driven by effective cost management and pricing. We also successfully completed our annual pricing in Europe, which helps position us well for the second half in terms of top line and volume growth.

我很高興地告訴大家，今年上半年我們取得了穩健的業績，在有效的成本管理和定價策略的推動下，利潤實現了強勁增長。我們也成功完成了歐洲的年度定價，這有助於我們在下半年實現營收和銷售成長方面佔據有利地位。

We continue to see momentum in emerging markets and we are continuing to invest significantly in our brands and capabilities to drive sustainable, long-term growth. And we continued our track record of strong free cash flow generating $1.5 billion.

我們持續看到新興市場的發展勢頭，並將繼續大力投資於我們的品牌和能力，以推動可持續的長期成長。我們繼續保持強勁的自由現金流，創造了 15 億美元的現金流。

While our operating environment remains challenging and dynamic, our teams remain focused and agile in executing against our long-term growth strategy. We continue to play for the long term in chocolate, biscuits and backed snacks because these core categories remain strong consumer favorites with very high loyalty to our iconic brand portfolio. Within these great categories, our advantaged geographic footprint provides additional confidence that we are well positioned to compound long-term sustainable growth.

儘管我們的經營環境依然充滿挑戰和變化，但我們的團隊仍然保持專注和靈活，並積極執行我們的長期成長策略。我們繼續在巧克力、餅乾和烘焙零食領域進行長期投資，因為這些核心品類仍然是消費者最喜愛的品類，消費者對我們標誌性品牌組合的忠誠度非常高。在這些大類別中，我們得天獨厚的地理優勢讓我們更有信心，我們能夠實現長期永續成長。

Turning to slide 5. You can see that organic net revenue grew 2.5% this quarter with adjusted gross profit dollar growth of 11.3%, enabling us to continue investing in the business. A&C spending is up high single digits, helping to drive consumer and customer loyalty to both our iconic global brands and our local jewels. Adjusted EPS grew 25%.

翻到第5張投影片。可以看到，本季有機淨收入成長了 2.5%，調整後毛利成長了 11.3%，使我們能夠繼續投資於業務。廣告和廣告支出實現了接近兩位數的成長，這有助於提升消費者和客戶對我們標誌性全球品牌和本地特色產品的忠誠度。調整後每股收益成長25%。

Turning to slide 6. While many food and beverage segments are continuing to experience softness, snacking remains relatively durable. Consumer trends vary by region, but overall, we are seeing volume growth start to rebound as inflation cools. Consumer incomes are rising, which helps to reduce the inflation-driven financial strain on many households.

翻到第6張投影片。儘管許多食品和飲料領域持續疲軟，但零食市場仍相對堅挺。消費者趨勢因地區而異，但總體而言，隨著通膨降溫，我們看到銷售成長開始反彈。消費者收入不斷增長，這有助於減輕通貨膨脹給許多家庭帶來的經濟壓力。

As a result, private label growth in our categories is decelerating while branded share growth is improving. In North America, some consumers are seeking snacking options at specific price points to fit within a specific overall ticket size. Other consumers who are more focused on convenience, look for multipacks, which offer value as well as variety and versatility.

因此，我們品類中的自有品牌成長正在放緩，而品牌份額成長正在改善。在北美，一些消費者正在尋找價格合適的零食，以符合特定的整體消費。另一些較注重便利性的消費者則會選擇多件裝，因為多件裝既經濟實惠，又種類繁多、用途廣泛。

Our proven playbook for price pack architecture allows us to offer a broad range of options to meet each of these consumers deferring definitions of value. As a result, our two largest US brands, OREO and Ritz are gaining share year-to-date. Meanwhile, in Europe, elasticities are moving slightly higher but remain modest. Consumer confidence is cautiously optimistic and is rising in the second quarter versus the same period last year as inflation softened and incomes rise behind stable employment.

我們成熟的價格組合架構方案使我們能夠提供廣泛的選擇，以滿足消費者對價值的不同定義。因此，我們在美國的兩個最大品牌 OREO 和 Ritz 今年迄今為止的市佔率都在成長。同時，歐洲的彈性係數略有上升，但仍處於較低水準。由於通膨放緩和就業穩定導致收入成長，消費者信心在第二季度較去年同期有所上升，目前消費者信心持謹慎樂觀態度。

We continue to see positive value growth in biscuits and chocolate. Volume in seasonal chocolate also is growing well, up 0.6% year-to-date driven by the performance of seasonal [shapes], novelties and bite-size products.

我們看到餅乾和巧克力的價值持續成長。季節性巧克力銷售也成長良好，今年迄今成長了 0.6%，這主要得益於季節性[形狀]、新奇產品和一口大小產品的出色表現。

Consumers continue to demonstrate that holidays like Easter just wouldn't be the same without chocolate, and they are willing to spend accordingly. In emerging markets, modest elasticities continue. Our China business is delivering strong growth in online and social commerce. In Brazil, we're seeing an uptick in elasticities but the consumer and economy remain resilient.

消費者不斷證明，如果沒有巧克力，像復活節這樣的節日就不完整，他們也願意為此付費。新興市場依然保持著溫和的彈性。我們在中國的線上和社交電商業務實現了強勁成長。在巴西，我們看到彈性上升，但消費者和經濟依然保持韌性。

In Mexico, the economic backdrop is healthy with solid employment and consumer confidence. Within India, we see some food inflation impacting lower and middle-income households driving a pullback in spend and causing some down trading, particularly in biscuits.

墨西哥經濟情勢良好，就業穩定，消費者信心強勁。在印度，我們看到一些食品通膨影響了中低收入家庭，導致支出減少，並引發了一些降級消費，尤其是在餅乾方面。

Overall, our combined emerging markets value and volume share is improving in biscuits and chocolate. Against this backdrop of gradually improving consumer confidence, as you can see on slide 7, we are continuing to deliver against our focused action plan to improve volumes in North America in the second half of the year.

總體而言，我們在新興市場餅乾和巧克力領域的綜合價值和銷售份額正在提高。在消費者信心逐步改善的背景下（如幻燈片 7 所示），我們正在繼續執行我們重點行動計劃，以提高今年下半年北美地區的銷售量。

We are already seeing value share improvement in OREO and Ritz. To further accelerate growth, we are continuing to increase distribution points across food, club and convenience stores. And to meet the right price points, we are also implementing new, targeted promotions as well as a new pack size priced in the $3 to $4 range, to drive continued brand loyalty and value for Oreo, Chips Ahoy! and Ritz. Additionally, we are continuing to launch compelling activations like Star Wars Oreo and Oreo space dunk to delight our fans while driving incremental lift.

我們已經看到奧利奧和麗思卡爾頓的價值份額有所提高。為了進一步加速成長，我們將繼續增加在食品店、會員店和便利商店的分銷點。為了達到合適的價格點，我們還將實施新的、有針對性的促銷活動，並推出定價在 3 至 4 美元之間的新包裝規格，以持續提升 Oreo 和 Chips Ahoy! 的品牌忠誠度和價值。還有麗茲卡爾頓酒店。此外，我們還將繼續推出像星際大戰奧利奧和太空奧利奧這樣的引人注目的行銷活動，以取悅我們的粉絲，同時推動銷售成長。

Turning to slide 8. Along with improving biscuit volumes in the second half, we are well positioned to deliver sustainable long-term growth in chocolate. Recent spikes in the cost of cocoa ingredients have been widely discussed, but we soon expect the market correction to a more sustainable price as the mid-crop is emerging in line with historical trends and early signs on the main crop are encouraging.

翻到第8張幻燈片。隨著下半年餅乾銷售的提升，我們已做好充分準備，實現巧克力業務的可持續長期成長。近期可可原料成本飆升已引起廣泛討論，但我們預計隨著中季作物的出現，市場價格將很快調整到更可持續的水平，這與歷史趨勢相符，而且主季作物的早期跡像也令人鼓舞。

Chocolate remains a great category. It is continuing to grow with volume resiliency and despite increasing prices. And within this great category, we offer some of the world's strongest, most iconic chocolate brands which include Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Toblerone, Côte d'Or, Marabou, Freia and Lacta.

巧克力仍然是一個很棒的類別。儘管價格上漲，但其銷售量仍保持穩定成長。在這個龐大的類別中，我們提供一些世界上最強大、最具標誌性的巧克力品牌，包括吉百利牛奶巧克力、妙卡、瑞士三角巧克力、金冠巧克力、瑪拉布巧克力、弗雷亞巧克力和拉克塔巧克力。

These brands are already the leaders in numerous key markets. and we are continuing to invest in A&C to further accelerate loyalty and growth. At the same time, our proven RGM playbook provides our teams with the necessary agility in offsetting inflation while maintaining solid volume dynamics and protecting shares.

這些品牌在許多關鍵市場已處於領先地位，我們將繼續投資A&C，以進一步提升客戶忠誠度並促進業務成長。同時，我們成熟的 RGM 策略為我們的團隊提供了必要的靈活性，使其能夠在抵消通貨膨脹的同時，保持穩健的交易動態並保護股價。

We remain confident that we are well equipped to continue navigating fluctuating input costs and that we're structurally advantaged to accelerate long-term chocolate growth. Turning to slide 9. It is important to reinforce that while the external environment remains volatile, we remain focused on accelerating our long-term growth strategy.

我們仍然相信，我們有能力繼續應對不斷波動的投入成本，並且我們在結構上具有優勢，可以加速巧克力產業的長期成長。翻到第9張投影片。需要強調的是，儘管外部環境依然動盪，但我們仍將專注於加速推動長期成長策略。

We're continuing to reinvest in our brands, expand distribution, drive M&A and scale sustainable snacking. We remain on track to deliver 90% of revenue through our core categories of chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks by 2030. And our teams continue to deliver strong progress against our strategic agenda.

我們將繼續對我們的品牌進行再投資，擴大分銷管道，推動併購，並擴大可持續零食的規模。我們仍有望在 2030 年前實現 90% 的收入來自巧克力、餅乾和烘焙零食等核心類別。我們的團隊在推進戰略議程方面繼續取得顯著進展。

For example, our OREO marketing team continues to design and deliver exciting creative activations that capitalize on consumer trends and drive incremental lift. We recently collaborated with Lucas film to launch two versions of a special edition Star Wars cookie in the United States, which unites our strong OREO fan base with the equally strong Star Wars fan community.

例如，我們的奧利奧行銷團隊不斷設計和推出令人興奮的創意活動，以利用消費者趨勢並推動銷售成長。我們最近與盧卡斯影業合作，在美國推出了兩款特別版星際大戰餅乾，將我們強大的奧利奧粉絲群與同樣強大的星際大戰粉絲群聯繫在一起。

While both versions are wrapped in identical exterior packaging, consumers don't know which sites they're on until they open the pack. This creative and fun approach is driving strong sales, making this collaboration our strongest limited edition yet.

雖然兩個版本都採用相同的外部包裝，但消費者在打開包裝之前並不知道自己造訪的是哪個網站。這種創意和趣味性的方式帶來了強勁的銷售勢頭，使這次合作成為我們迄今為止最成功的限量版產品。

This collaboration is the latest example of our strategy to cement the cultural relevance of OREO with key partners who help us bring their favorite stories to life. We're planning some more exciting but still top secret collaborations for the remainder of this year and into 2025. Along with these marketing activations, we are continuing to strengthen store availability, visibility and execution around the world. Here in the US, for instance, our performance in the club channel is growing mid-single digits, while the value channel is growing double digits.

此次合作是我們鞏固奧利奧與重要合作夥伴之間文化聯繫策略的最新例證，這些合作夥伴幫助我們將他們最喜歡的故事變為現實。我們正在計劃今年剩餘時間和 2025 年開展一些更令人興奮但仍高度保密的合作項目。除了這些行銷活動之外，我們還在不斷加強全球範圍內的門市覆蓋率、可見度和執行力。例如，在美國，我們在俱樂部管道的表現成長為個位數中段，而價值管道的績效則成長為兩位數。

Both are driven by our family size multi-packs which offer a great price per cookie or cracker rather than overall package prices. We also are continuing to harness the power of recent acquisitions to capture synergies and drive growth.

這兩種情況的驅動因素都是我們的家庭裝多件裝，這種包裝提供的是每塊餅乾或薄脆餅乾的優惠價格，而不是整個包裝的價格。我們也持續利用近期收購帶來的優勢，以實現協同效應並推動成長。

For example, our Chipita baked snacks business is growing high single-digit volume in Europe, led by convenient 7 Day Croissant that helps satisfy consumers on the go across a broad range of snacking occasions. Additionally, we are making continued progress on our environmental and social sustainability agenda.

例如，我們的 Chipita 烘焙零食業務在歐洲實現了接近兩位數的銷售成長，這主要得益於便捷的 7 天羊角麵包，它能夠滿足消費者在各種零食場合的隨時隨地的需求。此外，我們在環境和社會永續發展議程方面也持續取得進展。

For example, we continue implementing our structured and scientifically validated road map to reach net zero carbon by 2050. As an example, our biscuit manufacturing plant in East Suzhou, China was recently certified as carbon neutral.

例如，我們將繼續實施我們結構化且經過科學驗證的路線圖，以期在 2050 年實現淨零碳排放。例如，我們位於中國蘇州東部的餅乾製造廠最近獲得了碳中和認證。

The plant has reduced carbon emissions by 16,000 tons, the equivalent of planting 7,000 trees for 100 years. Through implementing new technology solutions, including an innovative system to recycle, residual heat and wastewater as well as a new seller photo voltage system to generate green electricity.

該工廠減少了 16,000 噸碳排放，相當於種植 7,000 棵樹 100 年。透過實施新技術解決方案，包括創新的餘熱和廢水回收系統以及用於產生綠色電力的新型售後光電電壓系統。

To learn more about our strategy and review our annual performance data in detail, I encourage you to read our snacking main rights report available on our website. On slide 10, before I turn the microphone over to Luca, I'd like to briefly highlight our recently announced strategic partnership with Lotus bakeries. This exciting initiative includes two main components.

如需了解更多關於我們策略的資訊並詳細查看我們的年度業績數據，我建議您閱讀我們網站上提供的零食主要權利報告。在第 10 張投影片上，在我把麥克風交給 Luca 之前，我想簡要地重點介紹一下我們最近宣布與 Lotus 麵包店建立的戰略合作夥伴關係。這項令人振奮的計劃包含兩個主要部分。

First, we will work with Lotus bakeries to develop and launch co-branded chocolate products, combining unique caramelized crispy Biscoff taste with our iconic global chocolate brands, including Cadbury and Milka. We aim to launch the first products in Europe in early 2025.

首先，我們將與 Lotus 烘焙坊合作開發和推出聯名巧克力產品，將獨特的焦糖脆皮 Biscoff 口味與我們標誌性的全球巧克力品牌（包括吉百利和妙卡）相結合。我們的目標是在 2025 年初在歐洲推出首批產品。

Second, we will manufacture, market, distribute and sell the Lotus Biscoff cookie brand in India starting in the second half of 2025. Partnering with LOTUS will enable us to simultaneously scale our sweet biscuit business in the important emerging market of India, while also innovating our strong European chocolate business with new products to grow consumer interest and loyalty.

其次，我們將從 2025 年下半年開始在印度生產、銷售、分銷 Lotus Biscoff 餅乾品牌。與 LOTUS 合作將使我們能夠同時在重要的新興市場印度擴大我們的甜餅乾業務，同時透過新產品創新我們強大的歐洲巧克力業務，以提高消費者的興趣和忠誠度。

As we strive to lead the future of snacking by winning in chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks M&A and ventures remain an important part of our growth strategy. This innovative partnership is a great example of our approach, and we continue to explore additional opportunities. With that, I'll turn it over to Luca to share additional insights on our financials.

我們致力於引領零食產業的未來，在巧克力、餅乾和烘焙零食領域取得成功，而併購和創投仍然是我們成長策略的重要組成部分。這種創新合作關係是我們方法的絕佳例證，我們將繼續探索更多合作機會。接下來，我將把發言權交給盧卡，讓他分享更多關於我們財務狀況的見解。

Thank you, Dirk, and good afternoon. Q2 marked a solid quarter for the business. with organic net revenue growth across each region, strong profit dollar growth, substantial reinvestment into working media and robust free cash flow generation and capital return. Revenue grew plus 2.5%, with strong pricing execution. This number includes 1.3 points of EU customer disruption that is now behind us and 40 basis points of [boycott] headwinds in our EMEA region. Developed market volume mix was down minus 2.2% for the quarter, primarily impacted by Europe customer disruption, with some ongoing softness in the US biscuit business.

謝謝你，德克，下午好。第二季公司業績穩健，各地區均實現了有機淨收入成長，利潤成長強勁，對媒體製作進行了大量再投資，自由現金流和資本回報也十分可觀。營收成長2.5%，這得益於強而有力的定價策略。這個數字包括歐盟客戶中斷造成的 1.3 個百分點（現在已經過去）以及歐洲、中東和非洲地區抵制活動造成的 40 個基點的不利影響。本季已開發市場銷售佔比下降 2.2%，主要受歐洲客戶中斷的影響，美國餅乾業務也持續疲軟。

Total revenue for emerging markets grew plus 4.5%. Developed markets grew plus 1.2%. Moving to portfolio performance on slide 13. Biscuits and baked snacks grew plus 0.8% for the quarter. Several brands delivered solid growth, including OREO, RITZ, 7Days, Club Social and [Tate].

新興市場總收入成長4.5%。已開發市場成長1.2%。第 13 頁將討論投資組合表現。本季餅乾和烘焙零食增加了0.8%。包括奧利奧、麗滋、7Days、Club Social 在內的多個品牌都實現了穩健成長。[泰特美術館]

We saw ongoing softness in parts of the US biscuit portfolio. though we have seen early signs of improvement in brands like Chips Ahoy! over recent weeks with clear plans to improve the overall biscuit growth enough to, as we've mentioned. Chocolate grew plus 5.6%, with significant growth across both developed and emerging markets.

我們看到美國部分餅乾產品組合持續疲軟，不過像 Chips Ahoy! 這樣的品牌已經出現了初步改善跡象。最近幾週，我們制定了明確的計劃，以改善餅乾的整體成長，正如我們之前提到的。巧克力市場成長了 5.6%，已開發市場和新興市場均實現了顯著成長。

Volume/mix was down minus 2.6%, which was nearly all driven by customer disruption in Europe. Cadbury Dairy Milk; Lacta in Brazil and Freia and Marabou in the Nordics, all posted strong growth during the quarter. Milka also posted solid growth. Gum & Candy grew plus 2.9%, driven by continued momentum and strength in key markets, including China, Brazil and Western Andean. Volume mix in this category was negatively impacted [by polls] in the US.

銷售/產品組合下降了 2.6%，幾乎完全是由於歐洲客戶流失造成的。吉百利牛奶巧克力；巴西的 Lacta 以及北歐的 Freia 和 Marabou 在本季度均實現了強勁增長。Milka也實現了穩健成長。口香糖和糖果業務成長 2.9%，主要市場（包括中國、巴西和安第斯西部）持續強勁的成長勢頭推動了這一成長。美國的民意調查對該類別的銷售組成產生了負面影響。

Let's review market share performance on slide 14. We held or gain share in 40% of our revenue base with strength in chocolate as well as Gum & Candy. (inaudible) was partially offset by softer results in our US biscuits business which accounts for approximately 25 percentage points of revenue and disruption in key markets across Europe.

讓我們回顧一下第 14 頁投影片上的市佔率表現。我們維持或提升了40%的收入份額，其中巧克力以及口香糖和糖果業務表現強勁。 （聽不清楚）部分被美國餅乾業務的疲軟業績所抵消，該業務約佔總收入的25個百分點，此外，歐洲主要市場的中斷也造成了一定影響。

Moving to regional performance on slide 15. Europe grew plus 2.7% in Q2. Execution was strong in the quarter with a number of key countries delivering growth through solid pricing and in-store execution, which led to share gains. This trend was partially offset by volume declines associated with expected customer disruption. Pricing is now completely in line with across all key customers, which positions us well for Q3 and up two of the year.

第 15 頁將介紹區域表現。歐洲第二季經濟成長2.7%。本季執行力強勁，多個重點國家透過穩健的定價和店內執行實現了成長，從而提升了市場份額。這一趨勢被預期中的客戶中斷導致的銷售下降部分抵消。目前定價已與所有主要客戶的定價完全一致，這為我們第三季及今年上半年的發展奠定了良好的基礎。

OI dollars were up nearly 25%, including significant ASC investment. North America grew plus 0.3% against a strong compare of more than 12% in the prior year. Growth channels, including club online and value, along with Canada, delivered solid growth.

OI 美元成長近 25%，其中包括大量 ASC 投資。北美地區較去年同期成長0.3%，而上年同期成長超過12%。包括線上俱樂部和超值商品在內的成長管道，以及加拿大市場，都實現了穩健成長。

However, overall volume mix declined as some consumers continue to seek out products with lower absolute price points, impacting brands like Chips Ahoy!. We have a clear plan to address this dynamic by adding more core packs in the OREO, Chips Ahoy! and Ritz within the $3 to $4 range beginning Q4 while other households continue to prefer the attractive unit price offerings that our family and party packs provide. And although early, a recent reformulation and new promotions have led to gradual improvement in Chips Ahoy!. There is clearly more work to do, but these initial signs are encouraging.

然而，由於一些消費者繼續尋找絕對價格較低的產品，整體銷售組合有所下降，這影響了 Chips Ahoy! 等品牌。我們有一個明確的計劃來應對這種動態，即在 OREO 和 Chips Ahoy! 中增加更多核心包裝。從第四季開始，麗茲卡爾頓酒店的價格將維持在 3 至 4 美元的範圍內，而其他家庭則繼續更喜歡我們家庭套餐和派對套餐提供的極具吸引力的單價優惠。雖然還處於早期階段，但最近的配方調整和新的促銷活動已經使 Chips Ahoy! 的性能逐步提升。顯然還有更多工作要做，但這些初步跡象令人鼓舞。

North America increased by plus 3.4%, EMEA grew plus 4.2% for the quarter. China delivered another strong quarter with high single-digit growth fueled by ongoing brand equity enhancement in OREO, Chips Ahoy! Stride along with distribution gains.

本季北美地區成長3.4%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長4.2%。中國市場又迎來了一個強勁的季度，實現了接近兩位數的成長，這主要得益於奧利奧 (OREO) 和趣多多 (Chips Ahoy!) 等品牌資產的持續提升。穩步推進分銷成長。

India was flat overall with strong chocolate growth offset by more competitive intensity and down trading in biscuits as a result of higher overall food inflation. Our India team has plans to activate new pack sizes and new value pricing within Oreo to improve growth and share, starting next month. Australia, New Zealand and Japan delivered a robust quarter of growth, coupled with strong share gains.

印度整體經濟狀況平穩，巧克力市場強勁成長，但由於整體食品通膨上升，餅乾市場競爭加劇，導致餅乾銷售下滑，抵銷了巧克力市場的成長。我們的印度團隊計劃從下個月開始，在奧利奧產品中推出新的包裝規格和新的定價策略，以提高成長和市場份額。澳洲、紐西蘭和日本本季經濟強勁成長，市佔率也大幅提升。

By cost in the Middle East and Southeast Asia remain a headwind to results, which we expect will continue enough to, though this impact will be in the base beginning in Q4. The overall impact for the region was 2 percentage points worth of growth. EMEA increased OI dollars by more than 46%, with meaningful A&C increases.

中東和東南亞的成本仍然是業績的一大阻力，我們預計這種情況還會持續，儘管這種影響將從第四季度開始在基數上顯現。該地區整體成長率提高了2個百分點。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的營業收入成長超過 46%，其中廣告和廣告收入成長顯著。

Gross base growth, coupled with some upsides related to lapping Nigeria currency losses last year drove this performance. Latin America grew plus 4.5%, with solid price execution and a decline in volume mix. Note that Argentina pricing has been capped at 26% unlike Q2 last year where the country contributed more than 50 points to Latin America growth, brazil and our Western Andean region both delivered mid-single-digit growth. Mexico growth was modest. -- in part due to lower flow of public subsidies to households that is expected to resume in the second half.

整體基數成長，加上去年尼日利亞貨幣損失的抵銷帶來的一些利多因素，推動了這一業績。拉丁美洲市場成長4.5%，價格執行穩健，但銷售量佔比下降。請注意，阿根廷的價格漲幅上限為 26%，這與去年第二季度該國對拉丁美洲增長的貢獻超過 50 個百分點的情況不同，巴西和我們的西安第斯地區都實現了中等個位數的增長。墨西哥經濟成長較為溫和——部分原因是公共補貼流入家庭的資金減少，預計下半年將恢復正常。

Consumer confidence remains strong in Mexico, while Brazil and the Western Andean countries continue to demonstrate solid growth. Latin America delivered OI growth of nearly plus 24%, supported by strong pricing.

墨西哥消費者信心依然強勁，而巴西和安地斯山脈西部國家也持續保持穩健成長。拉丁美洲的未平倉合約成長近 24%，這得益於強勁的價格表現。

Turning to page 16. In Q2, we saw strong double-digit OI and gross profit dollar growth, top line strength, pricing execution, ongoing cost discipline partly drove these results. Nevertheless, the strong half one results also reflect our favorable cocoa pipeline compared to current market prices, which will clearly reverse and will be a meaningful headwind in the second half.

翻到第16頁。第二季度，營業收入和毛利實現了強勁的兩位數成長，營收強勁、定價策略有效、持續的成本控制在一定程度上推動了這些業績。然而，上半年強勁的業績也反映出，與當前市場價格相比，我們的可可供應管道較為有利，但這種情況顯然會逆轉，並將成為下半年的一大不利因素。

Next to EPS on slide 17. Q2 EPS grew plus 25% in constant currency. Most of this growth was driven by operating gains as well as favorable cocoa cost pipeline and coverage strategies. And despite currency headwinds, we grew adjusted EPS and reported ForEx by more than 19%. We are holding our EPS goal for the year despite these gains since cocoa will become a more material headwind in the second half.

第 17 頁投影片旁邊是 EPS。第二季每股收益以固定匯率計算成長25%。這一增長主要得益於營運收益以及有利的可可成本管道和覆蓋策略。儘管面臨匯率不利因素，我們調整後的每股盈餘和外匯收入仍成長了 19% 以上。儘管取得了這些成長，但我們仍維持今年的每股盈餘目標，因為可可價格在下半年將成為更大的不利因素。

We continue to demonstrate strong free cash flow and capital deployment, as you can see on our slide 18. We delivered EUR 1.5 billion of free cash flow in half one. We have repurchased 1.1 billion in stock through half one and will remain opportunistic for the remainder of the year. We also announced today that we are raising our dividend by 11%, marking nine consecutive years with a double-digit dividend increase.

正如您在第 18 頁幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們繼續展現出強勁的自由現金流和資本部署。我們上半年實現了 15 億歐元的自由現金流。截至上半年，我們已回購了價值 11 億美元的股票，並將於今年剩餘時間內繼續伺機而動。我們今天也宣布，我們將股息提高 11%，連續第九年實現兩位數的股息成長。

Before moving to our outlook, let me make a few comments relative to Cocoa on slide 20. As we know, this is the most likely top of mind for our investors. Our teams continue to monitor the market very closely to put ourselves in the best position possible. While we want to protect ourselves, we continue to put flexible structures in place that enable us to participate in potential market price declines versus current historically high prices.

在展望未來之前，我想就第 20 頁幻燈片中的 Cocoa 做一些評論。我們知道，這很可能是投資人最關心的問題。我們的團隊將繼續密切關注市場動態，以使我們自身處於最佳位置。雖然我們希望保護自己，但我們仍會繼續建立靈活的機制，使我們能夠參與潛在的市場價格下跌中，而不是像現在這樣處於歷史高點。

In addition, we continue to fine tune our commercial strategies to ensure long-term sustainable growth while managing through near-term challenges. As guiding principles, we will protect critical price points and key thresholds, while broadly utilizing our GM and implementing more pricing in the least elastic segment and consumer occasions. Our objective is to limit elasticity and volume losses while protecting our gross profit dollars to the extent possible as we believe cocoa prices will adjust eventually.

此外，我們不斷優化商業策略，以確保長期可持續成長，同時應對近期挑戰。我們將以保護關鍵價格點和關鍵門檻為指導原則，同時廣泛利用我們的通用汽車，並在彈性最小的細分市場和消費場景中實施更多定價。我們的目標是在盡可能保護毛利的同時，限制價格彈性和銷售損失，因為我們相信可可價格最終會進行調整。

We will also implement cost measures to ensure that we protect our bottom line and ability to invest in the category. It remains too early in the year to provide specifics around 2025. However, there are some key elements and points in time to consider.

我們還將採取成本控制措施，以確保我們的利潤和在該領域的投資能力。現在談論 2025 年的具體情況還為時過早。然而，有一些關鍵因素和時間節點需要考慮。

The mid-crop has been good and in line with historical trends. And although early signs around the main crop are encouraging, we should get a much clearer indication in September, which will likely act as the next catalyst for cocoa cost.

中期作物長得很好，符合歷史趨勢。儘管主要作物的早期跡象令人鼓舞，但我們應該會在 9 月得到更明確的跡象，這很可能成為可可價格的下一個催化劑。

As we get to our Q3 earnings cycles, we expect to be able to share more color around market liquidity and the range of cost that will relative to 2025 as well as EPS. I'll close with our outlook on slide 21. Our outlook for '24 remains unchanged.

隨著第三季財報季的到來，我們預計能夠分享更多關於市場流動性、2025 年成本範圍以及每股盈餘的資訊。最後，我將在第 21 頁投影片闡述我們的展望。我們對2024年的展望保持不變。

We continue to expect [on algo] delivery for revenue, earnings per share and cash flow. Note that this earnings per share include significantly higher costs related to Cocoa for the second half, which is important to factor into our two models.

我們繼續預期[演算法]能夠實現營收、每股盈餘和現金流的成長。請注意，該每股收益包含下半年可可相關的大幅上漲的成本，這對於我們兩個模型來說都是一個重要的考慮因素。

This includes the upper end of our 3% to 5% range for organic net revenue, which considers the impact of completing price negotiations in Europe and plans to drive improvement enough to result in North America. Most of our key assumptions remain consistent with what we shared with you in our last call with the exception of interest expenses, which is now estimated at EUR 275 million for the full year. With that, let's open the line for questions.

這包括我們 3% 至 5% 的有機淨收入範圍的上限，其中考慮了在歐洲完成價格談判的影響，併計劃推動改進，以期在北美取得足夠成果。除了利息支出外，我們的大部分關鍵假設與上次電話會議中與您分享的內容保持一致，利息支出目前估計全年為 2.75 億歐元。接下來，我們開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

（操作說明）安德魯·拉扎爾，巴克萊銀行。

Maybe to start off, Dirk, last quarter, I think you spoke about the need to offer better value to the consumer in parts of the North America segment. In 2Q, volumes decline -- volume declines moderated in North America as did the benefit from pricing. So how do you see the consumer situation in North America currently? And do you see the need for a more aggressive price reset?

德克，或許可以先從上個季度說起，我想你當時談到了在北美部分地區需要為消費者提供更好的價值。第二季銷售量下降－北美地區的銷售下降幅度有所緩和，價格帶來的好處也隨之減弱。那麼，您如何看待目前北美地區的消費狀況呢？你認為有必要採取更積極的價格調整措施嗎？

And then separately for you, Luca, volume and organic sales growth needs to accelerate sequentially to hit the upper end of the 3% to 5% range for the year in a still challenging environment, while unchanged full year EPS guidance despite the 2Q beat implies a deceleration in the back half on EPS. And I was hoping you could bring us through some of the logic behind those dynamics, please.

此外，Luca，對你而言，在依然充滿挑戰的環境下，銷量和有機銷售增長需要逐年加速，才能達到全年 3% 至 5% 的上限；儘管第二季度業績超出預期，但全年每股收益預期保持不變，這意味著下半年每股收益增長將放緩。我希望您能為我們解釋一下這些動態背後的邏輯。

Okay. I'll start first, Andrew. So as it relates to the consumer in the US, I would say there's sort of three key dynamics to keep in mind. First of all, -- the category remains soft, but it is stabilizing. And I would say that the consumer is experiencing attention because they see the overall inflationary picture. They see the food prices that have increased and they have a feeling of less purchasing power.

好的。我先來，安德魯。所以就美國消費者而言，我認為有三個關鍵因素需要記住。首先，——該類別仍然疲軟，但正在趨於穩定。我認為消費者之所以會關注通膨情勢，是因為他們看到了整體通膨情勢。他們看到食品價格上漲，感到購買力下降。

At the same time, particularly as they see grocery prices stabilizing and their wages being up about 4%, while grocery prices are up 1%. They're starting to have bigger confidence than the same period last year, although these high prices remain a concern for them. And I would also say the other thing that we see in the category, while it's soft, as I said, the elasticities have stabilized since Q4 '23.

與此同時，尤其是在他們看到食品價格趨於穩定，而他們的工資上漲了約 4%，而食品價格上漲了 1% 的情況下。雖然高物價仍然令他們擔憂，但他們的信心比去年同期有所增強。我還要說，我們在這個類別中看到的另一點是，雖然它很柔軟，但正如我所說，自 2023 年第四季以來，彈性已經趨於穩定。

The second thing about the consumer is that they have changed where they shop. So the biscuit category is seeing the largest growth in chains like Value Club and Walmart while in grocery, we are seeing a share decline.

消費者的第二大變化是他們的購物地點改變了。因此，餅乾類別在 Value Club 和沃爾瑪等連鎖店中成長最為顯著，而在雜貨店中，我們看到其市場份額正在下降。

And probably the most important thing we're seeing about the consumer is that the definition of value has changed for many people because if you look two, three years back, it was all about the price per pack or in fact, the unit price per cookie and people were drifting more towards family and party size pack, and that benefited us.

我們看到消費者最重要的變化可能是，許多人對價值的定義發生了改變，因為如果你回顧兩三年前，人們關注的是每包的價格，或者實際上是每塊餅乾的單價，人們越來越傾向於購買家庭裝和派對裝，這對我們來說是有利的。

Now particularly lower income consumers they have moved to a basket size that they can afford. And if the biscuit brand that they like can fit in there at the right price point they will buy. If not, they will not buy any biscuits. So these days, we have to be much more aware at which price points we offer a pack. So what are we going to do, we don't think we need a full price reset.

現在，尤其是低收入消費者，他們已經轉向購買他們能夠負擔得起的商品。如果他們喜歡的餅乾品牌能夠以合適的價格擺放在貨架上，他們就會購買。否則，他們就不會買餅乾。所以現在，我們必須更加註意我們產品的定價策略。所以我們打算怎麼做？我們認為不需要徹底重置價格。

At the moment, our OI, our operating income and our cash generation is strong, where we focus is largely on improving our sales and our share in a smart way.

目前，我們的營業收入、現金流狀況良好，我們主要關注的是如何以明智的方式提高銷售額和市場份額。

We have an opportunity to drive more distribution in displays. And so we need to keep on driving those two, particularly also featured displays. We are implementing new targeted promotions that are probably going to offer a little bit more price on brands like Chips Ahoy!, which is probably most affected by sort of the hesitation from the lower-income consumers. And then we will also launch a whole range of new smaller packs that will offer the consumer an opportunity to buy around $3 to $4 for the pack. And so we think that also will make a difference.

我們有機會在展示品方面推動更多分銷。因此，我們需要繼續推動這兩個面向的發展，特別是重點展示。我們正在實施新的有針對性的促銷活動，可能會對 Chips Ahoy! 等品牌提供更優惠的價格，這些品牌可能最容易受到低收入消費者猶豫不決的影響。然後，我們還將推出一系列新的小包裝產品，讓消費者有機會以大約 3 到 4 美元的價格購買一包。所以我們認為這也會產生影響。

So more promotions, smaller packs that we will offer, driving distribution, those are the solutions that we are planning for. We're already seeing benefits. Chips Ahoy! is recuperating quite nicely. OREO and Ritz are increasing their market share.

因此，我們將推出更多促銷活動、更小包裝的產品，並推動分銷，這些都是我們正在計劃的解決方案。我們已經看到成效了。Chips Ahoy！恢復情況相當不錯。奧利奧和麗滋的市佔率正在成長。

And on top of all that, we will have some very impactful activations. So we talked about Star Wars in the call here. There's another big one coming up, which I cannot yet announced, but we have some very strong activations on OREO in the second half. All that together gives us the confidence that we will see a good second half in North America. Luca?

除此之外，我們還將開展一些非常有影響力的活動。所以我們在電話裡聊了《星際大戰》。還有一個大項目即將推出，我現在還不能透露，但我們在下半年針對奧利奧品牌會有一些非常強大的推廣活動。綜上所述，我們有信心在北美賽區下半年取得好成績。盧卡？

So for the first half, we are broadly where we would have expected to be, quite honestly, revenue might be a little bit softer, but strong profit will allow us to invest into some selective additional activities enough to deliver profitable volume growth.

所以，就上半年而言，我們基本上已經達到預期目標了。坦白說，收入可能會略有下滑，但強勁的利潤將使我們能夠投資於一些選擇性的額外活動，從而實現盈利的銷售成長。

I think you rightly pointed out the implied top line growth for up to which current guidance requires an acceleration. And that changes on three main drivers. The number one driver that will impact the most these Europe that will have to return to volume growth.

我認為您正確地指出了當前業績指引需要加速成長才能達到的隱含營收成長目標。而這主要取決於三個因素。對這些歐洲國家影響最大的因素是，它們必須恢復銷售成長。

With disruption behind us, we feel quite good about achieving that. The team in Europe has proven consistently that they can execute very well. and plans are in place to activate around big key consumers activities like back-to-school and Christmas. It is also important to remind ourselves that the trade stock pipeline is an opportunity in Europe as we had to pull back on shipments and solid piping the trade is a material opportunity and something that we are clearly already seeing in July.

隨著危機過後，我們對實現這一目標感到非常滿意。歐洲團隊已經持續證明了他們出色的執行能力，並且已經制定了圍繞返校季和聖誕節等重要消費活動開展推廣的計劃。我們也要提醒自己，貿易庫存管道在歐洲是一個機會，因為我們不得不減少出貨量，而穩定的貿易管道是一個實質性的機會，這一點我們在7月份已經明顯看到了。

The second element is the US biscuit positive volume. I have to say the diagnostics around what is happening to the overall category and the share pressure that we see are clearly giving us an indication of what has been changed. And we truly believe that hitting those price points is going to result in positive outcomes. And again, we start seeing some green shoots in the category and in our brands.

第二個因素是美國餅乾的正銷量。我必須說，圍繞整個類別正在發生的事情以及我們看到的市場份額壓力進行的診斷，清楚地表明了發生了哪些變化。我們堅信，達到這些價格點將會帶來正面的結果。我們再次看到該品類和我們的品牌出現了一些復甦的跡象。

The third element is that while I do not like to talk much about lapping last year, for the second part of the year, we discontinued some product lines that were material in volume for the give-and-go business.

第三點是，雖然我不太喜歡談論去年的磨損情況，但去年下半年，我們停產了一些在即買即走業務中銷量很大的產品線。

And I think from now, we will be comparing more to a clean base. And so I think that's the third element to bear in mind. I think all in all, we have, at this point, line of sight to the upper end of our revenue guidance for the year. As far as EPS goes, importantly, we have landed the price in line with our expectations. There might be more selective price that we will be doing in light of (inaudible) cocoa.

我認為從現在開始，我們將更多地與一個乾淨的基準進行比較。所以我認為這是第三個需要牢記的要素。總的來說，我認為目前我們已經看到了實現全年營收預期上限的希望。就每股收益而言，重要的是，我們已經將價格定在了符合我們預期的水平。考慮到（聽不清楚）可可的價格，我們可能會採取更有選擇性的定價策略。

But no major deviations expecting on this front. Our commodity cost for the year is almost 100% loss. So no surprises expected on that front either.

但預計這方面不會有重大偏差。我們今年的商品成本幾乎損失了100%。所以這方面也不會有什麼意外。

As I mentioned a few times, just in mind that we bought Cocoa quite well for this year and that year-to-date cocoa costs are meaningfully better than the 2024 average. So there is more cost coming in the second half. (inaudible) EPS guidance being kept in line despite the very strong results year-to-date.

正如我之前多次提到的，請記住，我們今年的可可採購情況相當不錯，而且今年迄今為止的可可成本明顯低於 2024 年的平均水平。因此，下半年將產生更多費用。（聽不清楚）儘管今年迄今的業績非常強勁，但每股收益預期仍保持不變。

We will continue to invest in working media in line with the first part of the year, but we will also start optimizing, as we discussed a few times, the nonworking media, which is still an opportunity in this outlook. And finally, we will continue to pursue cost measures and productivities.

我們將繼續按照上半年的步調投資於有效媒體，但正如我們之前多次討論的那樣，我們也將開始優化無效媒體，這在目前看來仍然是一個機會。最後，我們將繼續追求降低成本和提高生產力的措施。

So all in all, we believe reaffirming guidance is the right thing to do. And again, July is shaping up quite well for us at this point in time. But obviously, as I said, there is more work to do, particularly around the US consumption side.

總而言之，我們認為重申指導方針是正確的做法。再次強調，就目前來看，7 月的情況對我們來說相當不錯。但顯然，正如我所說，還有更多的工作要做，尤其是在美國消費方面。

Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

Ken Goldman，摩根大通。

I wanted to clarify a little bit about Europe. You talked about how completing your pricing actions helps position you well in terms of volume growth for the second half. I think you also mentioned that Europe elasticities, though still modest, are moving slightly higher.

我想稍微澄清一下關於歐洲的一些情況。您提到，完成定價策略有助於您在下半年的銷售成長方面佔據有利地位。我想您也提到過，歐洲的經濟彈性雖然仍然不高，但正在略微上升。

So I'm just curious, if maybe we could elaborate a little bit on what drives your confidence in volume growth? Just given some of the pricing actions, what seemed to be tougher comparisons and that slightly higher elasticity that you mentioned, if I'm correct on all of those.

所以我很好奇，您能否詳細解釋一下是什麼讓您對銷售成長充滿信心？考慮到一些定價策略，以及你提到的更艱難的比較和略高的彈性（如果我理解正確的話）。

Yes, yes. Well, first of all, the consumer, I would say, is cautiously optimistic. I would say in general, we feel that the European consumer seems to be in a better place than the North American consumer. They see their incomes rise. The inflation is softening.

是的，是的。首先，我認為消費者持謹慎樂觀態度。總的來說，我認為歐洲消費者的處境似乎比北美消費者好。他們的收入增加了。通膨正在放緩。

They see quite stable employment, particularly in the U.K. is important for us in Europe. And there, the confidence which was relatively low last year is rising because they feel that their broader economy is doing better, and they feel better about their personal finances.

他們認為，穩定的就業，尤其是在英國的就業，對我們在歐洲來說非常重要。而且，去年相對較低的信心正在上升，因為他們覺得整體經濟狀況好轉，對自己的個人財務狀況也更有信心。

And then I would say, France and Germany, the other two big countries, we have some mixed views across the economic indicators, but the confidence is also above last year. So second thing is, yes, there is an uptick in elasticities and there is also more promotions.

然後我想說，法國和德國這兩個大國，我們對它們的經濟指標有些不同的看法，但信心也比去年高。第二點是，是的，彈性上升，促銷活動也有所增加。

But I would say the elasticities remain quite modest. And there is a little bit of an increase in promo intensity. We're also seeing the same shift of people buying -- going from hypers and supers to discounters. And then we see also these affordable packs at the right price point.

但我認為彈性仍然相當有限。促銷力道略有加大。我們也看到人們的購買習慣發生了同樣的轉變——從大型超市和特大超市轉向折扣店。我們也看到了一些價格合適的經濟型套裝。

So similar movement, as I was talking about in North America. If you look at Q2, our biscuits and baked snacks are already positive in Europe. They're growing their value at 2.8% and volume at 0.8%. In chocolate, we see a strong momentum with seasonal shapes. We also see tablet, bars and pralines doing well.

所以，這與我剛才在北美所說的趨勢類似。如果看一下第二季度，我們的餅乾和烘焙零食在歐洲的銷售情況已經呈正增長。它們的價值增長了 2.8%，銷量增長了 0.8%。在巧克力領域，我們看到季節性造型的強勁發展勢頭。我們也看到片劑、能量棒和巧克力糖果的銷售量也很好。

Back-to-school and Christmas, of course, in chocolate will be very important. And we are continuing to watch the pricing impact. But overall, I would say, if you exclude some of the disruption that we saw, the performance in Europe is quite solid.

當然，返校季和聖誕節，巧克力將會非常重要。我們將繼續關注價格方面的影響。但總的來說，如果排除我們看到的一些幹擾因素，我認為歐洲市場的表現相當穩健。

And since that disruption in the pricing has been implemented now, we feel that, that solid underlying growth that we see there is going to continue in the second half. So we're expecting quite a good second half. I would also like to mention here that chocolate despite already seeing quite a bit of prices remains quite resilient. There's more to come, seen the cocoa situation. But overall, volume has been quite solid.

鑑於價格調整措施已經實施，我們認為目前看到的穩健成長動能將在下半年持續維持。所以我們預計下半年會表現不錯。我還想提一下，儘管巧克力價格已經漲了不少，但價格依然相當堅挺。看看可可的情況，還有更多問題需要解決。但整體而言，銷量一直相當穩定。

We're also planning to continue to invest strongly our Easter was very strong. So we have high expectations for back-to-school and Christmas. And so overall, I would say that I would be surprised if the second half is not a good half for Europe.

我們也計劃繼續加大投資力度，復活節期間的業績非常強勁。所以我們對返校季和聖誕節都抱有很高的期望。所以總的來說，如果下半季對歐洲來說不是好賽季，我會感到驚訝。

Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

Alexia Howard，Bernstein。

So just a couple of quick ones. On the ERP transition, is that something that's going to be rolled out across different regions? Or is it something that's going to affect particular categories at a particular point, should we be worried about the impact of that transition for 2025?

就簡單問幾個問題。關於ERP系統過渡，這是將在不同地區逐步推廣的嗎？或者，這是否意味著它會在某個特定時間點影響某些特定類別？我們是否應該擔心這種轉變對 2025 年的影響？

So it is a problem that will be completed over a four-year time frame. And the reason why that is a couple of things. One is we will use a staggered approach, and we will be able to implement that in part of the business first and rolling out resources eventually from that part of the business and holding onto those resources into the next wave of chances that will be impacted.

因此，這個問題將在四年內解決。原因有二。一是我們將採用分階段的方法，先在部分業務中實施，然後逐步從這部分業務中推廣資源，並將這些資源保留到下一波受影響的機會中。

We will also make a big distinction between some modules of SAP versus others. So we will not necessarily take even by region, a big bank approach. And we believe that the preparation we had been doing for the last, I would say, 18 months positions us well in terms of successful execution.

我們也將對 SAP 的某些模組與其他模組進行嚴格區分。因此，我們可能不會採取按地區劃分、大型銀行主導的方式。我們相信，過去18個月以來我們所做的準備工作，使我們在成功執行方面處於有利地位。

So we've tried to minimize all potential issues by going broadly in one region or by road in the world of SAP. And we believe given also the sources we have internally and importantly, the ones we have secured through (inaudible) and Accenture that we will have a good opportunity to execute as well.

因此，我們試圖透過在一個地區或透過公路進行廣泛的推廣，來最大限度地減少 SAP 領域所有潛在的問題。而且我們相信，鑑於我們內部擁有的資源，以及我們透過（聽不清楚）和埃森哲獲得的資源，我們也將有很好的機會去執行。

Great. And then as a follow-up, I'm just curious about the long-term free cash flow guidance. It's been sitting, I think, at this $3 billion level for some time, even as your earnings growth has obviously played out quite nicely in recent years. You've obviously got guidance of $3.5 billion this year.

偉大的。另外，我還想了解長期自由現金流預期。我認為，儘管近年來貴公司的獲利成長顯然相當不錯，但它的市值已經穩定在 30 億美元左右一段時間了。你們今年的業績預期顯然是35億美元。

What are the puts and takes? Or what are the criteria that you would use when you're thinking about whether that guidance of free cash flow could be raised at some point down the road.

有哪些買入和賣出操作？或者，您在考慮未來是否有可能提高自由現金流預期時，會使用哪些標準？

The answer is yes. We will have a couple of onetimers in the second part of the year. And that is really what drives the $3.5 billion. But both last year where we had to pay some taxes related to coffee. And this year, where we have potential one-timer that we will be paying most likely off in August, I would say.

答案是肯定的。今年下半年我們會有幾場一次性的比賽。而這才是真正推動這35億美元成長的原因。但去年我們都必須繳一些與咖啡相關的稅。今年，我們可能會遇到一次性的債務，很可能在八月償還。

If you strip those out, that are clearly a onetime impact. I mean our cash flow is running at $4 billion plus. So we feel quite good about it. cash conversion cycle continues to be top notch. We continue to improve days outstanding.

如果剔除這些因素，那顯然是一次性影響。我的意思是，我們的現金流超過40億美元。所以我們對此感覺相當不錯。現金週轉週期依然非常出色。我們持續改善應收帳款週轉天數。

And one of the reasons why we believe SAP and o9, which is the other platform around supply and demand planning that we are implementing with this ERP program is going to be beneficial to us is arounding banker, which is an area that has material opportunities in it. So the answer is certainly, we can strive for more than $4 billion on an ongoing basis.

我們相信 SAP 和 o9（我們正在與此 ERP 程序一起實施的另一個供需計劃平台）將對我們有益的原因之一是，它們對銀行業務有重要的潛在機會。所以答案當然是肯定的，我們可以持續爭取超過 40 億美元的收入。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可·拉弗里，派珀·桑德勒。

Just wanted to come back to cocoa for a second. That slide you laid out is really helpful at the end of the presentation. I was wondering if you could give us a sense of how much you might be placing a bet on prices rolling over in September.

想再說說可可的事兒。你準備的那張投影片在簡報結束時真的很有幫助。我想知道您能否大致估算一下，您對9月價格下跌的預期有多高。

Put it a little differently, have you been securing for '25 kind of as normal, which I think would roughly maybe put you at about half or a little bit more covered at this time of the year. Or are you trying to position for a move that you see -- it sounds like you might expect to come a little bit later in the year?

換句話說，你是否像往常一樣為 2025 年做好了準備？我認為，到今年這個時候，你的準備金應該已經涵蓋了大約一半甚至更多。或者，您是否正在為某個您預見的舉措做準備——聽起來您預計該舉措會在今年晚些時候發生？

Look, we believe there is going to be a correction. I mean even today, if you take the spot price of today, which is [round about] GBP6,500 per ton and compare it to next year, Q4, there is a gap of GBP2,200 which is clearly material. So the market in light of the mid-crop and importantly, of the evolution of the main crop sees a clear adjustment of prices going forward. And I think there might be even more than this.

我們認為市場將會出現回調。我的意思是，即使是今天，如果你以今天的現貨價格（大約是每噸 6,500 英鎊）與明年第四季度的價格進行比較，就會發現存在 2,200 英鎊的差距，這顯然是相當大的差距。因此，考慮到中期作物和主要作物的生長情況，市場價格將出現明顯的調整。而且我認為可能還有更多。

Obviously, we are not going to go blind into 2025. We cannot wait and that on the main crop to be good. And we have been certainly improving and increasing our physical coverage into 2025. We have around about a quarter of our positions into 2025 over to futures. And you might imagine we have covered out there in the year to take advantage of this inverted curve, which means how big of a discount do you get the further you go out versus today's fault.

顯然，我們不會盲目地進入2025年。我們不能再等了，希望主作物能有好收成。我們肯定會在2025年之前不斷改進和擴大我們的實體覆蓋範圍。我們大約有四分之一的2025年到期部位已轉為期貨。你可能會想到，我們已經涵蓋了過去一年中利用這種倒置曲線的情況，這意味著，與今天的錯誤相比，你越往後購買，就能獲得多大的折扣。

The rest is covered through a series of derivatives that allow us to participate in a potential market correction. So at this point in time, whichever way you look at it, we have protection for the most part of our positions into 2025. And on the other side, we have secured also some physical forward positions that I believe will provision as well compared to the market eventual cocoa price adjustments that might happen or not.

其餘部分則透過一系列衍生性商品來彌補，這些衍生性商品使我們能夠參與潛在的市場調整。所以，無論從哪個角度來看，我們的大部分部位在 2025 年之前都得到了保障。另一方面，我們也獲得了一些現貨遠期頭寸，我相信這些頭寸也能應對市場最終可能發生或不發生的可可價格調整。

Okay. That's very helpful. And just following up on Biscoff. It sounds like a very interesting partnership. Can you give a little better sense of maybe the structure.

好的。那很有幫助。再補充一下關於比斯科夫的事。聽起來像是一項非常有趣的合作。能否更詳細地描述一下結構？

It sounds like it's not a JV, but perhaps across licensing. Maybe a little bit of just how it works? And then also kind of what its potential to be obviously, at the moment, it's initially going to be Europe and India, but could it go global? Are there reasons that it's got any geographic limitations?

聽起來不像是合資企業，而可能是跨領域的授權合作。或許可以稍微解釋一下它的運作原理？那麼，它未來的發展潛力究竟如何呢？顯然，目前它最初的目標市場是歐洲和印度，但它有可能走向全球嗎？它是否存在地域限制？

Yes. So there's two main components to the partnership. So the first one is that, we're going to co-brand chocolate products with Biscoff. And Biscoff is not yet a very big brand in North America, but it's quite a big brand in Europe. It's one of the biggest biscuits brands, and it is -- it has a quite unique taste and also quite unique consumption moment.

是的。所以這種合作關係包含兩個主要組成部分。所以第一件事就是，我們將與 Biscoff 合作推出聯名巧克力產品。Biscoff 在北美還不是一個非常大的品牌，但在歐洲卻是一個非常大的品牌。它是最大的餅乾品牌之一，而且——它的味道和食用體驗都非常獨特。

And the combination of a chocolate bar with Biscoff filling or with pieces of Biscoff in there is quite delicious. So that's the first one.

巧克力棒裡夾著 Biscoff 餅乾餡或加入 Biscoff 餅乾碎，味道真是太棒了。這是第一個。

To give you an idea, we already have a similar line, which uses OREO as the filling, and we're talking about several hundred millions of sales in Europe for that line. So we have the same expectations for the Biscoff line.

舉個例子，我們已經有一條類似的產品線，以奧利奧餅乾為餡料，這條產品線在歐洲的銷售額達數億英鎊。所以我們對 Biscoff 系列產品也有同樣的期待。

And if that is a success in Europe, we will obviously want to extend that around the world into our other chocolate brands. And the first launch of this product will be in early 2025. And that will help us with excitement -- building excitement around the chocolate market.

如果這種模式在歐洲取得成功，我們顯然會希望將其推廣到世界各地的其他巧克力品牌。該產品將於 2025 年初首次上市。這將有助於我們營造興奮感——為巧克力市場造勢。

Then secondly, the Biscoff is looking for global distribution. And there's certain countries where that is not easy to get through, we will manufacture, distribute and sell Biscoff in India as a first country. It's going to start in the second half of 2025.

其次，Biscoff 正在尋求全球分銷。在某些國家，這並非易事，我們將首先在印度生產、分銷和銷售 Biscoff。將於2025年下半年開始。

It's very interesting for us because at the moment, our biscuit business in India is really built around OREO and this will -- is going to give us a second big brand, very different from OREO, very different audience, very different consumption moment, largely with coffee or tea in India.

這對我們來說非常有趣，因為目前我們在印度的餅乾業務實際上是圍繞奧利奧建立的，而這將為我們帶來第二個大品牌，與奧利奧非常不同，受眾非常不同，消費場景也非常不同，在印度主要與咖啡或茶搭配。

And so we think it's going to be an ideal complement to keep on building a strong biscuits business in India. And that clearly is a test to see if we would do other countries around the world. And so yes, it's not a joint venture. It's a cross sort of licensing of our brands to each other.

因此，我們認為這將是我們在印度繼續建立強大的餅乾業務的理想補充。這顯然是在測試我們是否願意將這種模式推廣到世界其他國家。所以，是的，這不是合資企業。這是一種我們雙方品牌之間的交叉授權。

Okay. That's really helpful. I fly Delta and people go crazy for them on there. So you've probably got at least a better [head start] in the US than you may know.

好的。這真的很有幫助。我坐達美航空，那裡的人們對他們非常著迷。所以你在美國可能至少比你想像的更有優勢。

(Operator Instructions) Tom Palmer, Citi.

（操作說明）湯姆·帕爾默，花旗銀行。

Thanks for the question. I think a quarter ago, you talked about volume being flattish year-over-year in 2024. I just wanted to confirm, is this still the expectation? And then any help as to how much maybe some of the more nonrecurring items like the disruptions in Europe or the subsidy timing in Mexico might have weighed on volumes in the second quarter, so we could think about kind of an entry run rate, at least for the third quarter.

謝謝你的提問。我記得大約一個季度前，您曾提到2024年銷售量將與去年持平。我只是想確認一下，這仍然是預期目標嗎？此外，還需要了解一些非經常性因素，例如歐洲的貿易中斷或墨西哥的補貼時間安排，可能對第二季的銷售量造成了多大影響，這樣我們就可以考慮至少第三季的初步運行率。

Yes. I think the expectation, it is still around having a sort of flattish volume mix for the year. And in terms of onetimers, as I said, there is 1.3 points of disruption that happened in Q2. The whole four points of volume mix in Europe are attributable to the consumer -- or the customer disruption, sorry. There is another component, which is about the Middle East conflict that impacted on (inaudible) 3 percentage points for the quarter.

是的。我認為，今年的預期仍然是銷售結構相對穩定。至於一次性事件，正如我所說，第二季出現了 1.3 個百分點的干擾。歐洲銷售組合的四個關鍵點都歸因於消費者——或者更準確地說，是客戶滿意度下降。還有另一個因素，那就是中東衝突，它對本季造成了（聽不清楚）3個百分點的影響。

The other one, as I said, that you need to bear in mind is the impact of Give & Go and the discontinuation that we had in Q4 last year, but also importantly, last year, we had a carryover of the first half disruption in Europe into half two. And that was around about $100 million of revenue impact.

正如我所說，您需要記住的另一點是 Give & Go 的影響以及我們在去年第四季度的停產，但同樣重要的是，去年上半年歐洲業務中斷的影響延續到了下半年。那大約造成了1億美元的收入損失。

So when you strip out all these impacts, you clearly see a much better linearity of the volume mix and revenue. And when you come to terms that the actions that the US is taking around consumers and packs, I think we have clearly an expectation that this improved volume mix in the second half and improved revenue in the second half.

因此，當你剔除所有這些影響因素後，你會清楚地看到銷售組合和收入之間呈現出更好的線性關係。當你理解美國針對消費者和包裝所採取的行動時，我認為我們顯然可以預期，下半年銷售組合和收入都會有所改善。

And just on the A&C side, I know we -- you talked about some meaningful step-ups here in the first half of the year. I think if we look at the timing of some of the step-ups last year, it was maybe a little bit second half weighted, at least in terms of the dollar spend. Does that become, maybe, less of a headwind in terms of the year-over-year pressure as we think about the back half of the year in terms of the flow-through to earnings?

就A&C方面而言，我知道我們——你談到了今年上半年的一些重要進展。我認為，如果我們回顧去年一些升級措施的實施時間，可能會發現它們更集中在下半年，至少從美元支出來看是如此。從獲利傳導的角度來看，下半年的業績是否會對年比壓力產生較小的負面影響？

There might be a little bit of an upside in relation to the fact that, as we mentioned, we are taking a deeper look at all the nonworking media part of A&C. I don't expect it to be material for the second part of the year. And importantly, we will continue still investing in our working media. So I don't expect a material upside in terms of P&L impact due to lower A&C in the second part of the year.

正如我們之前提到的，我們正在深入研究A&C所有非營運媒體部分，這可能會帶來一些好處。我預計它不會成為今年下半年的素材。更重要的是，我們將繼續投資於我們的工作媒體。因此，我不認為由於下半年A&C支出減少，損益表方面會有實質的成長。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

Peter Galbo，美國銀行。

Luca, I was just wondering, if you could maybe unpack the Mexico comments a bit more. I think we've heard kind of different things from different companies this quarter related to Mexico. Some have mentioned the subsidy timing that you called out, others have seen maybe more of a normalization after such a strong kind of several years in Mexico.

盧卡，我只是想問，你能不能再詳細解釋一下關於墨西哥的評論？我認為本季我們從不同的公司聽到了與墨西哥相關的各種不同的說法。有人提到了你提到的補貼時間問題，也有人認為，在墨西哥經歷瞭如此強勁的幾年之後，情況可能會更加正常化。

So just curious, a, if maybe there's a bit of bolt going on there at this point? Or if truly, you think that the subsidy piece was a blip and you've already seen a reacceleration into July.

所以只是好奇，a，現在是不是有點螺栓鬆脫了？或者，如果你真的認為補貼只是暫時的波動，而你已經看到補貼在7月份再次加速成長。

Yes. I mean overall, the market conditions in Mexico for us are healthy. For instance, the biscuits and the chocolate category, both are mid-single-digit increase in value, gum and meals also performed quite well. I would say the economy is doing well. There is good employment.

是的。我的意思是，總體而言，墨西哥的市場環境對我們來說是健康的。例如，餅乾和巧克力類別的價值均實現了中等個位數的成長，口香糖和餐點的表現也相當不錯。我認為經濟狀況良好。就業機會很好。

There was a lower flow because of the elections of public subsidies to the household that we think will start to normalize in H2. But in general, if you look at minimum wage has doubled in the last years in Mexico. So the overall climate is very positive as it relates to the consumer.

由於對家庭公共補貼的選舉，流量下降，我們認為這種情況將在下半年開始恢復正常。但總的來說，如果你看一下墨西哥的最低工資，你會發現它在過去幾年裡翻了一番。因此，就消費者而言，整體環境非常積極。

If you look at the low single-digit Q2 growth that we had, that largely came from our candy and our chocolate business. which was offset by growth in government meals. And particularly in candy, we think that there probably our price points are a little bit too high.

如果你看我們第二季個位數的低成長，那主要來自我們的糖果和巧克力業務，但被政府餐點業務的成長所抵消。尤其是在糖果方面，我們認為我們的定價可能有點太高了。

We will need to work on those. In chocolate, a little bit the same. And we need to make sure that we're well positioned for the Christmas season there. Again, government meals are doing very well and also the biscuit growth for us was quite strong. The OREO distribution, which is critical because of the Ricolino partnership that we have is growing well.

我們需要著手處理這些問題。巧克力也略有類似之處。我們需要確保我們為那裡的聖誕節做好充分準備。政府供餐再次取得了非常好的成績，我們的餅乾銷量也成長強勁。由於我們與 Ricolino 建立了合作關係，OREO 的分銷管道發展良好，這一點至關重要。

And OREO was growing also mid-single digits in Mexico. So I would say the -- I think that this effect of the subsidy certainly affected candy and chocolate Overall, we remain quite positive. We think there will be a gradual recovery in H2. The long-term opportunity for growth remains quite significant. The integration with Ricolino is going well, and their route to market will enable us our ambition to grow market share, particularly for biscuits and chocolate.

在墨西哥，奧利奧的銷量也實現了中等個位數的成長。所以我認為——我認為這項補貼確實對糖果和巧克力產生了影響。總體而言，我們仍然相當樂觀。我們認為下半年將會逐步復甦。長期成長機會依然相當可觀。與 Ricolino 的整合進展順利，他們的市場管道將使我們能夠實現擴大市場份額的目標，尤其是在餅乾和巧克力領域。

There's also a US business related to Ricolino which, of course, is not the subject of the question. But that one also is important because it positions Ricolino as the leader of the Hispanic US candy market. But overall, I would say I think it's a temporary issue driven by these subsidies and in the second half, I'm expecting to see a good recuperation in Mexico.

還有一家與Ricolino相關的美國企業，當然，這與問題無關。但這一點也很重要，因為它將Ricolino定位為美國西班牙裔糖果市場的領導者。但總的來說，我認為這只是這些補貼造成的暫時性問題，我預計下半年墨西哥經濟將會出現良好的復甦。

Great. That's helpful. And Luca, just maybe a quick one. We've had some questions come in. Obviously, the kind of over-delivery on gross margin in the first half, and I think that there was an expectation kind of coming out of the fourth quarter of this year that you'd be down gross margins kind of basis.

偉大的。那很有幫助。還有盧卡，也許就快速地來一下。我們收到了一些問題。顯然，上半年的毛利率超額完成，我認為今年第四季大家普遍預期毛利率會下降。

More than basis points actual points on a year-over-year basis as we exit '24. And just wanted to see if that's kind of still the expectation given the cocoa inflation at 2H.

2024 年末，實際年比點數將增加超過幾個基點。我只是想知道，考慮到下半年的可可價格上漲，這是否仍然是人們預期的。

Yes. I think, look, we moved away from giving guidance in terms of gross margin percentage. What I would tell you is, we are going to have a year that is ahead in terms of gross profit dollar growth delivery compared to our usual algorithm. I think in the end, what will really matter is the amount of pricing we would have implemented and how much pricing we are going to take into next year in light of whatever cohort is going to be come the end of 2024.

是的。我認為，我們已經不再以毛利率百分比的形式給出績效指引了。我可以告訴大家的是，與我們通常的演算法相比，今年我們在毛利美元成長方面將會取得進展。我認為最終真正重要的是我們已經實施了多少定價策略，以及考慮到 2024 年底的群體組成，我們將把多少定價策略帶入明年。

So we are very happy. I have to be honest with the level of profitability we have achieved in the first part of the year. There, that suggested, I believe, under normal circumstances that we have upside to the guidance we gave you. But reality is cocoa is a material headwind in the second half of the year. And reality is we might have to selectively invest in some of the activities that you have been hearing throughout the call.

所以我們非常高興。我必須坦誠地談談我們今年上半年取得的獲利水準。我認為，這表明，在正常情況下，我們給你的指導是有正面意義的。但現實情況是，可可價格在下半年將成為一個實質的阻力。而現實情況是，我們可能需要選擇性地投資你們在通話中一直聽到的一些活動。

It is not a massive investment. It doesn't take away that in terms of profitability and ability to reinvest in A&C. We have done, I believe, a very good job. But we prefer maybe to be cautious around the level of profit going forward because, again, cocoa prices, as we have secured them in the first part of the year are clearly much lower than the current spot price and 2025 price for cocoa would suggest.

這並非一筆巨額投資。但這並不影響A&C的獲利能力和再投資能力。我認為我們做得非常好。但我們或許更傾向於對未來的利潤水平保持謹慎，因為，正如我們在今年上半年所鎖定的，可可價格顯然遠低於目前的現貨價格和 2025 年可可價格所顯示的水平。

Matt Smith, Stifel.

馬特史密斯，史蒂費爾。

Just I wanted to ask a question about the performance in India. You mentioned volumes are relatively flat in the market this quarter with a bit of a step-up in Elasticity. Can you talk about how you're approaching distribution point opportunities in this type of consumer environment? Are you continuing to see good progress on expanding your distribution in the market.

我只是想問一下關於在印度的表現的問題。您提到本季市場成交量相對平穩，彈性略有上升。您能否談談在這種消費環境下，您是如何掌握分銷點機會的？您在拓展市場分銷方面是否持續取得良好進展？

Yes, yes. So in India, if I give you a little bit of background, so we're looking at flat growth in Q2, mid-single-digit Chocolate growth is continuing well, high single digit, good gross margin improvement. Cadbury Dairy Milk continues to be a strong leader of the market. despite the fact that we've already implemented some pricing, it's mainly in biscuits where India is being affected. So we have seen a consumption dip because there is more intense competition and consumers are clearly moving to lower price points. And our biscuit business is largely built around OREO, which I would call a more premium biscuit in the Indian market.

是的，是的。所以，在印度，如果我先介紹一下背景，我們看到第二季成長持平，巧克力業務成長良好，達到個位數中段，毛利率也有所提高。吉百利牛奶巧克力仍然是市場上的領導品牌。儘管我們已經實施了一些價格調整，但主要受影響的是印度市場的餅乾產品。因此，我們看到消費量下降，因為競爭更加激烈，消費者顯然正在轉向價格較低的產品。我們的餅乾業務主要以奧利奧餅乾為主，我認為奧利奧在印度市場上屬於高端餅乾。

If I look at the stores, so since 2019, we've deployed more than 700,000 visi-coolers. In 2023, we added 180,000 stores to our coverage and about 100,000 new visi-coolers. In H1 in '24, we've already added another 140,000 stores and 90,000 visi-coolers. So that's a very strong performance compared to '23.

如果我看一下門市，自 2019 年以來，我們已經部署了超過 70 萬個可視冷藏櫃。2023年，我們的覆蓋範圍增加了180,000家門市和約100,000個新的可視冷藏櫃。2024 年上半年，我們已經新增了 14 萬家門市和 9 萬個可視冷藏櫃。所以與 2023 年相比，這是一個非常強勁的成績。

Still, if you take into account there's 9 million food retail outlets we now cover about 2.3 million directly and just over $3 million if we take our indirect coverage. So we still have a huge headroom. So I would say yes, there is a bit of a slowdown after three years of inflation, particularly a group of the consumers, particularly in biscuits, is a bit more careful in their consumption.

不過，考慮到目前有 900 萬家食品零售店，我們現在直接覆蓋了約 230 萬家，如果算上間接覆蓋，則覆蓋金額略高於 300 萬美元。所以我們還有很大的進步空間。所以我認為，經過三年的通貨膨脹，成長確實有所放緩，尤其是一部分消費者，特別是餅乾消費者，在消費方面更加謹慎了。

We don't see that as something that would slow down our focus on expanding our distribution in India. We're going to continue to work as we've been working in the previous years, placing those visi-coolers driving our distribution because we are very confident that gradually the consumer will start to buy OREO again. And our chocolate business, as I mentioned, keeps on doing very well.

我們認為這不會減緩我們擴大在印度分銷管道的步伐。我們將繼續像前幾年一樣努力，擺放那些展示櫃來推動我們的分銷，因為我們非常有信心，消費者會逐漸再次開始購買奧利奧。正如我之前提到的，我們的巧克力業務一直發展得非常好。

This does conclude our question-and-answer session. I'm happy to return the call to Dirk Van de Put for any closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我很樂意回電給德克·范德普特，讓他做最後的總結發言。

Well, I thank everybody for their attendance to the call. I would call it again a solid second quarter, and our expectations are for an improved H2 and looking forward to see you at the end of Q3.

感謝各位參加此次電話會議。我仍然認為第二季度表現穩健，我們預計下半年業績將有所改善，期待在第三季末與您相見。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may now disconnect your lines, and everyone, have a great day.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。現在可以斷開線路了，祝大家今天過得愉快。