億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Mondelez's management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

各位來賓，歡迎參加億滋國際2023年第三季財報電話會議。本次電話會議預計持續約1小時，包括億滋管理層的致詞和問答環節。 （操作說明）現在我將把電話交給億滋投資者關係資深副總裁謝普‧鄧拉普先生。請您發言。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides, which are available on our website. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties.

下午好，感謝各位參加本次電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有我們的董事長兼執行長德克·范德普特先生，以及財務長盧卡·扎拉梅拉先生。今天早些時候，我們已發布了新聞稿和演示文稿，您可以在我們的網站上查看。在本次電話會議中，我們將就公司業績做出一些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們目前的判斷。由於存在風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。

Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on our forward-looking statements. As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results. In addition, we provide our year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, unless otherwise noted.

有關我們前瞻性陳述的更多詳情，請參閱我們提交的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。在今天討論我們的績效時，除非另有說明，我們將引用非公認會計準則 (非 GAAP) 財務指標，這些指標已根據公認會計準則 (GAAP) 業績中的某些項目進行了調整。此外，除非另有說明，我們將以固定匯率計算年增速。

You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation. Today, Dirk will provide a business and strategy update followed by a review of our financial results and outlook by Luca. We will close with Q&A.

您可以在我們的獲利報告中以及投影片簡報的末尾找到可比較的GAAP指標以及GAAP與非GAAP指標的調節表。今天，Dirk將帶來業務和策略更新，隨後Luca將回顧我們的財務業績和展望。最後我們將進行問答環節。

I'll now turn the call over to Dirk.

現在我將把電話交給德克。

Thanks, Shep, and thanks to everyone for joining the call today. I will start on Slide 4. Our strong third quarter results and our prospects for the future confirm that we are positioned for high-quality, sustainable growth. We remain confident in the durability of our categories, the strength of our iconic brands and the consistency of our execution. We delivered strong profitable volume growth with a healthy share performance. All our geographic regions grew double digits in both revenue and profitability.

謝謝Shep，也謝謝各位今天參加電話會議。我將從第四張投影片開始。我們強勁的第三季業績以及未來的發展前景證實，我們已做好實現高品質、可持續成長的準備。我們對旗下各品類的持久性、標誌性品牌的實力以及執行力的穩定性充滿信心。我們實現了強勁的獲利性銷售成長，並維持了健康的市場份額。我們所有地區的營收和獲利能力均實現了兩位數成長。

To manage cost inflation and enable robust reinvestments, we continue to leverage our RGM capabilities. RGM is an area where we believe there is significant room to do more over the next several years. We continue to reshape our portfolio to focus on our core categories of chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks with the successful divestiture of our developed market gum business, generating additional reinvestment opportunities.

為了控製成本上漲並實現穩健的再投資，我們將繼續發揮RGM（零售、零售、行銷）方面的優勢。我們相信，未來幾年RGM領域還有很大的發展空間。我們將繼續調整產品組合，專注於巧克力、餅乾和烘焙零食等核心品類，並成功剝離已開發市場的口香糖業務，從而創造更多再投資機會。

Our strong year-to-date performance, the continued strength of our categories and our ongoing focus on strong commercial plans and execution provide the confidence to again raise both our organic net revenue outlook to 14% to 15% and adjusted EPS growth outlook to approximately 16%.

今年迄今的強勁業績、各品類的持續強勁表現以及我們對強有力的商業計劃和執行的持續關注，使我們有信心再次將有機淨收入預期提高至 14% 至 15%，並將調整後每股收益增長預期提高至約 16%。

Turning to Slide 5. You can see that in the third quarter, we delivered both top and bottom line strength, enabling us to continue substantial reinvestment in our brands. We delivered organic net revenue growth of 15.7% for the quarter. Year-to-date revenue is up 17% nearly $4 billion ahead of last year. We also delivered adjusted gross profit dollar growth of 22.3% for the quarter. Again, we are ahead of last year's pace with 20% growth year-to-date, up $1.7 billion.

請看幻燈片5。可以看到，第三季我們的營收和利潤均表現強勁，使我們能夠繼續對旗下品牌進行大量再投資。本季我們的有機淨收入成長了15.7%。年初至今的營收成長了17%，比去年同期成長了近40億美元。本季我們的調整後毛利也成長了22.3%。同樣，我們今年迄今的毛利成長了20%，比去年同期成長了17億美元，成長速度再次超過去年同期水準。

The strong performance enables us to reinvest in our brands and capabilities to drive attractive growth in future periods. Our A&C investment is up 28.5% for the quarter and 21.5% for the year, which demonstrates our commitment to continue to build the strength of our brands. These results translated into strong adjusted OI growth, up 24.5% for the quarter and close to $900 million for the year.

強勁的業績表現使我們能夠對品牌和能力進行再投資，從而在未來幾個時期推動可觀的成長。本季我們的廣告和廣告投資成長了28.5%，全年成長了21.5%，這體現了我們持續增強品牌實力的決心。這些成果轉化為強勁的調整後營業收入成長，本季成長了24.5%，全年接近9億美元。

As you can see on Slide 6, our third quarter growth was driven by strong volume/mix, up nearly 4 points. We are especially pleased that our European pricing actions, which were implemented earlier this year, are successfully behind us. We view this quarter strong volume/mix performance as evidence that we are taking the right actions to continue delivering sustainable growth and share gains.

如投影片6所示，我們第三季的成長主要得益於強勁的銷售和產品組合優化，增幅近4個百分點。尤其令人欣喜的是，我們今年稍早實施的歐洲定價策略已圓滿完成。我們認為，本季強勁的銷售和產品組合表現證明，我們正在採取正確的措施，以持續實現永續成長和市佔率提升。

Consumers continue to choose our trusted and beloved brands, despite significant pricing due to ongoing inflation. More broadly, we view our strong performance in the third quarter as evidence that our long-term strategy continues to pay off. Since the launch of our growth plan in 2018, we have consistently delivered gross profit dollar growth, which allowed for a virtuous cycle of yearly increasing high-return investments. We remain confident that this strategy will continue to consistently deliver attractive growth.

儘管受持續通膨影響，產品價格大幅上漲，消費者仍選擇我們值得信賴且備受喜愛的品牌。更廣泛地說，我們認為第三季的強勁業績證明了我們的長期策略持續奏效。自2018年啟動成長計畫以來，我們持續實現毛利成長，從而形成良性循環，逐年增加高回報投資。我們堅信，這項策略將持續帶來持續的穩健成長。

Turning to Slide 7. We continue to see evidence that consumer demand for our snacking categories remains resilient and that consumers continue to prefer our widely-loved brands over private label alternatives. In North America, the biscuit category is experiencing some softness in scanner data, most notably among lower-income families. However, I would note that these families are increasing their purchases in the non-measured club store channel.

請看幻燈片7。我們持續看到消費者對我們零食品類的需求依然強勁，消費者仍然更青睞我們廣受歡迎的品牌，而非自有品牌產品。在北美，餅乾類別的掃描數據顯示其銷量下滑，尤其是在低收入家庭中。然而，值得注意的是，這些家庭在非統計管道（例如會員製商店）的購買量有所增加。

Our total U.S. biscuits volume was up more than 3% in Q3, showcasing the continued strength of our brands and investments in both measured and non-measured channels. We are seeing particularly strong growth in unmeasured channels like club stores, e-commerce and food service. Meanwhile, in Europe, consumer confidence is improving, with a significant step-up versus 2022 and remains broadly stable throughout Q3. We're seeing positive volume growth in biscuits and chocolates, which has accelerated over the last 3 months and is outpacing broader food, driven by solid elasticities and lapping of 2022 disruptions.

第三季度，我們在美國餅乾總銷量成長超過3%，展現了我們品牌的持續強勁勢頭以及在可衡量和不可衡量管道的投資成效。我們尤其看到會員店、電商和餐飲服務等不可衡量通路的強勁成長。同時，歐洲消費者信心正在改善，較2022年顯著提升，並在整個第三季保持穩定。餅乾和巧克力銷量均實現正增長，且在過去三個月中增速加快，增速超過整體食品銷量，這主要得益於其良好的彈性以及2022年市場波動的影響逐漸消退。

In Q3, our European chocolate and biscuit business delivered solid volume growth of 2.6%, which again shows resilience of our categories and the strength of our brands. In emerging markets, consumer confidence remains strong. We continue to see resilient underlying demand and lower price sensitivity than in developed markets. During Q3, we delivered strong growth in terms of both volume and value at 4% and 24%, respectively. And we are confident that we have strong opportunities to continue to drive expanded distribution and creating new snacking occasions.

第三季度，我們的歐洲巧克力和餅乾業務銷售實現了2.6%的穩健成長，再次展現了我們品類的韌性和品牌的實力。在新興市場，消費者信心依然強勁。我們持續看到潛在需求保持穩定，且價格敏感度低於已開發市場。第三季度，我們的銷量和銷售額分別實現了4%和24%的強勁成長。我們有信心持續拓展通路，並創造新的休閒零食消費場景。

On Slide 8, you can see a few examples of our growth acceleration strategy in action. We continue to invest in our brands and connect closely with consumers to stay in line with changing consumer tastes and snacking occasions. We are also driving growth in a broader range of channels while accelerating our focus on premium segments and harnessing the power of recent acquisitions to advance geographic expansion.

在第8張投影片中，您可以看到我們成長加速策略的一些例子。我們持續投資於旗下品牌，並與消費者保持緊密聯繫，以適應不斷變化的消費者口味和零食消費場景。同時，我們也在更廣泛的通路中推動成長，並加快對高端市場的關注，利用近期收購的優勢來拓展地域版圖。

For example, Oreo continues to grow its strong position as the world's favorite cookie, and its share performance here in North America has grown nicely. Our recent partnership with Super Mario Brothers executed both online and in-store is just one example of the many creative campaigns that leverage personalization and local relevance to reinforce the brand's playful persona. Along with continuous reinvestment in our brands, we are also investing in growth channels. For example, our belVita business is up nearly a full share point in the U.S. club channel, driven by growing shopper interest in convenience, tasty and better-for-you options for morning snacking on the go.

例如，奧利奧作為全球最受歡迎的餅乾品牌，其市場地位持續穩固，在北美地區的市場份額也實現了顯著增長。我們近期與超級瑪利歐兄弟合作，在線上線下同步開展的行銷活動，只是眾多創意行銷案例中的一個，這些案例都巧妙地運用了個性化和在地化元素，強化了品牌輕鬆活潑的形象。除了持續投資旗下品牌，我們也積極拓展成長管道。例如，由於消費者對便利、美味且更健康的早餐零食的需求不斷增長，我們的 belVita 品牌在美國會員店通路的市佔率成長了近一個百分點。

Sold in individual portion packs and delivering more than 14 grams of whole grains per serving, belVita offers a great solution for consumers who are too busy to eat a traditional breakfast. We're continuing to grow this business with a new customized and digitally targeted social and digital media campaign celebrating the ritual of belVita and coffee in the morning. Another important element of our growth strategy is investing in the fast-growing premium chocolate space. We have relaunched Toblerone with a robust campaign inspired by luxury fashion brand positioning it as a jewel. We're supporting this launch with a strengthened brand persona, Never Square and substantial investments in A&C.

belVita 採用獨立包裝，每份含有超過 14 克全穀物，為忙碌到無暇享用傳統早餐的消費者提供了理想的選擇。我們正透過一項全新的客製化、數位化定向的社群媒體和數位媒體行銷活動，持續拓展這項業務，旨在頌揚早晨享用 belVita 和咖啡的儀式感。我們成長策略的另一重要部分是投資快速成長的高端巧克力市場。我們以奢華時尚品牌為靈感，打造了 Toblerone 的全新升級版，並將其定位為一顆璀璨的寶石。為了支持此次新品上市，我們強化了品牌形象，推出了 Never Square 品牌，並對廣告和廣告公司進行了大量投資。

Bringing this jewel concept to life, our new pralines called Toblerone Truffles recently debuted in the United Kingdom, Switzerland and Australia as well as airport duty-free stores in key markets. They will expand to additional markets next year. Finally, we continue driving geographic expansion of our recently acquired brands. For example, Ricolino headquartered in Mexico is now the #1 Hispanic confectionery brand in the United States, growing well and in line with our expectations.

為了將這一精美理念變為現實，我們推出了名為 Toblerone Truffles 的全新巧克力，該產品近期已在英國、瑞士和澳洲以及主要市場的機場免稅店上市。明年，我們將拓展至更多市場。此外，我們也持續推動近期收購品牌的地域擴張。例如，總部位於墨西哥的 Ricolino 現已成為美國排名第一的拉丁美洲裔糖果品牌，其成長勢頭良好，符合我們的預期。

Turning to Slide 9. Let's zoom in closer on the snack bar business to highlight the strong progress. We're excited about the opportunities in this space, and we believe there is significant runway ahead, led by the strong and growing brands of Clif Bar, Grenade and Perfect Snacks, we expect our snack bar business to exceed $1.2 billion net revenue this year.

翻到第9張投影片。讓我們更深入地了解零食棒業務，並專注於其取得的強勁進展。我們對這領域的機會感到興奮，並相信未來發展空間巨大。在Clif Bar、Grenade和Perfect Snacks等實力雄厚且不斷成長的品牌的引領下，我們預計今年零食棒業務的淨收入將超過12億美元。

Let's start with Clif, where we are excited about our current results and the long-term opportunity to broaden distribution, expand into new formats and increase our geographical reach. Year-to-date, Clif is up double digit in top line growth. And within that, the Clif Kid Zbar has been a particular standout. Zbar is a delicious organic non-GMO soft-baked, whole grain energy snack for kids with 0 trans fat or artificial flavors. Zbar is growing at twice the rate of the total bars category with consumption dollar growth up 19% versus last year.

我們先來談談Clif，我們對目前的業績以及拓展分銷管道、開發新產品形式和擴大地域覆蓋範圍的長期發展機會感到非常興奮。今年迄今為止，Clif的營收成長已達到兩位數。其中，Clif Kid Zbar表現特別突出。 Zbar是一款美味的有機非基因改造軟烘焙全穀物能量零食，專為兒童設計，不含反式脂肪和人工香料。 Zbar的成長速度是能量棒品類整體成長速度的兩倍，消費額較去年同期成長19%。

Grenade also continues to exceed our expectations. Grenade is performing very well in the sports nutrition space with signature bars that are high in protein and low in sugar. Since our acquisition a bit more than 2 years ago, we have doubled the business, thanks to strong core growth in the U.K. and distribution expansion in Ireland, Nordics and the Benelux.

Grenade 的表現也持續超越我們的預期。 Grenade 在運動營養領域表現出色，其招牌能量棒高蛋白低糖。自兩年多前收購以來，得益於英國核心業務的強勁成長以及在愛爾蘭、北歐和比荷盧經濟聯盟地區的銷售擴張，我們的業務規模已翻了一番。

Perfect Snacks also is experiencing continued double-digit value growth, strengthening its position as the #1 refrigerated protein bar in the United States. We have a great portfolio and strong conviction in the growth potential of our snack bar business, and we will continue investing to drive leadership in the segment.

Perfect Snacks 的銷售額也持續保持兩位數成長，鞏固了其作為美國排名第一的冷藏蛋白棒的地位。我們擁有強大的產品組合，並對旗下零食棒業務的成長潛力充滿信心，我們將繼續增加投資，以鞏固在該領域的領先地位。

Turning to Slide 10. I'd like to take a moment to share progress on an important element of our sustainability strategy. Just 2 years after joining the science-based targets initiative, net zero carbon ambition, we have submitted a time-bound plan laying out how we aim to achieve our target of net zero greenhouse gas emissions across our full value chain by 2050. To reach this critical milestone, we have completed a detailed process of rebaselining, providing documentation of our carbon accounting and aligning to new standards.

接下來請看第10張投影片。我想藉此機會分享我們可持續發展策略中一個重要環節的進展。加入科學碳目標倡議（SBTi）的淨零碳排放目標僅僅兩年後，我們就提交了一份有時限的計劃，詳細闡述了我們如何力爭在2050年前實現整個價值鏈溫室氣體淨零排放的目標。為了達成這項關鍵里程碑，我們完成了詳細的基準線調整流程，提供了碳會計的相關文件，並符合了新的標準。

Putting this plan into action in the near term, we are making solid progress towards our 2025 goal of reducing end-to-end carbon emissions by 10%. We are working hard to transform our business operations and supply chains. Over the past 2 years, we have scaled regenerative agriculture practices across our signature sourcing programs for coco and wheat, achieved renewable energy at manufacturing sites across every region and reduced CO2 emissions through plant and logistical efficiencies.

為實際落實這項計劃，我們在短期內正朝著2025年實現端到端碳排放量減少10%的目標穩步邁進。我們正努力轉型業務營運和供應鏈。過去兩年，我們在可可和小麥等標誌性採購項目中推廣了再生農業實踐，在所有地區的生產基地實現了可再生能源的使用，並透過提高工廠和物流效率減少了二氧化碳排放。

We continue to believe that helping to drive positive change at scale, including through reducing our climate impact, is an integral part of value creation with positive returns for our stakeholders. We encourage you to read our Snacking Made Right report for additional details and context on our broader sustainability goals and progress. With that, I'll turn it over to Luca to share additional insights on our financials.

我們始終堅信，推動大規模積極變革，包括減少我們對氣候的影響，是為利害關係人創造價值並帶來正面回報的重要組成部分。我們鼓勵您閱讀我們的《健康零食指南》報告，以了解更多關於我們更廣泛的永續發展目標和進展的細節和背景資訊。接下來，我將把發言權交給盧卡，讓他分享更多關於我們財務狀況的見解。

Thank you, Dirk, and good afternoon. Q3 was strong all across our business with high-quality top and bottom line growth, healthy volume mix, record profit dollar increases and substantial brand reinvestment. We delivered double-digit organic net revenue of 15.7% with growth across each region, underpinned by volume mix of almost 4% as well as by some pricing of around 12%. Our business is proving to be resilient, both in emerging markets, which grew 19%, with strong performance virtually everywhere, and in developed markets, which grew more than 13% with balanced trends from both North America and Europe.

謝謝Dirk，下午好。第三季我們各項業務表現強勁，營收和利潤均實現高品質成長，銷售結構健康，利潤額創歷史新高，並進行了大量的品牌再投資。我們實現了15.7%的兩位數有機淨收入成長，各地區均實現成長，這主要得益於近4%的銷售成長以及部分產品約12%的價格上漲。我們的業務展現出強大的韌性，新興市場成長19%，幾乎所有地區都表現強勁；已開發市場成長超過13%，北美和歐洲的成長趨勢均衡。

Turning to portfolio performance on Slide 13. Our chocolate, biscuits, gum and candy businesses all posted double-digit increases in Q3. Biscuit increased plus 12.4%. Oreo LU biscuit, Tate, 7Days and Clif delivered double-digit growth and robust volumes. Chocolate grew plus 14.9%, with double-digit growth in both developed and emerging markets. Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Toblerone and Lacta, all posted double-digit increases. Gum and candy grew more than 30%, with particular strength coming from emerging markets.

請參閱第13頁投影片，以了解投資組合的績效表現。我們的巧克力、餅乾、口香糖和糖果業務在第三季度均實現了兩位數成長。餅乾業務成長12.4%。奧利奧LU餅乾、Tate、7Days和Clif都實現了兩位數成長，銷量強勁。巧克力業務成長14.9%，已開發市場和新興市場均實現了兩位數成長。吉百利牛奶巧克力、妙卡、瑞士三角巧克力和Lacta均實現了兩位數成長。口香糖和糖果業務成長超過30%，新興市場表現特別強勁。

Now let's review market and share performance on Slide 14. We held or gained share in 65% of our revenue base, driven by brand-building investments as well as solid North America supply chain performance and strong sales execution, particularly in emerging markets. Moving to regional performance on Slide 15. As far as Q3 goals, we delivered double-digit revenue growth in every single region. with a significant contribution from healthy volume mix growth, including Europe, which has rebounded after [lending pricing] this summer and is now in a much stronger position.

現在讓我們回顧一下第14頁幻燈片中的市場和份額表現。在品牌建立投資、北美供應鏈的穩健表現以及強勁的銷售執行（尤其是在新興市場）的推動下，我們在65%的收入基礎中保持或提升了份額。接下來是第15頁投影片中的區域業績。就第三季目標而言，我們實現了所有區域兩位數的營收成長，這主要得益於銷售組合的穩健成長，包括歐洲市場。歐洲市場在今年夏季[貸款定價]調整後已強勁反彈，目前處於更穩健的地位。

This robust growth and volume performance translated into operating leverage across the business. Notwithstanding material marketing investment, profit growth delivery has been very strong in all regions. Europe grew plus 15.4%, with nearly 30% OI growth that was driven by pricing and volume/mix. Top line strength was broad-based with the U.K., Germany and France, among those posting strong results. Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Oreo, 7Days and Grenade were among brands with double-digit growth. European elasticities remained stable in both chocolate and biscuits.

強勁的成長和銷售表現轉化為整個業務的營運槓桿效應。儘管投入了大量行銷資金，但所有地區的利潤成長都非常強勁。歐洲市場成長15.4%，營業利潤成長近30%，主要得益於價格和銷售/產品組合的最佳化。營收成長覆蓋率廣，英國、德國和法國等市場均取得了顯著業績。吉百利牛奶巧克力、妙卡、奧利奧、7Days和Grenade等品牌均實現了兩位數成長。歐洲巧克力和餅乾的彈性係數均保持穩定。

North America grew plus 11.4%, with OI dollar growth of more than 24%, driven by higher pricing and volume/mix growth of 4.6%. Oreo, Clif, Tate's and Sour Patch, all grew double digits, while Ritz and belVita posted high single-digit increases in the quarter. Profitability in the base business remained strong, while acquired businesses such as Clif and Tate's, posted strong double-digit profit dollar growth. This is an important proof point showing how accretive our M&A agenda can be.

北美地區成長11.4%，營業收入（OI）成長超過24%，主要得益於價格上漲以及銷售/產品組合成長4.6%。奧利奧、Clif、Tate's和Sour Patch的業績均實現兩位數增長，而Ritz和belVita的業績也實現了接近兩位數的增長。基礎業務的獲利能力依然強勁，而收購的業務，例如Clif和Tate's，也實現了兩位數的強勁利潤成長。這有力地證明了我們的併購策略能夠帶來顯著的收益提升。

Clif profitability continues to improve. And as I said last quarter, we still have some synergies opportunities as we have now integrated the platform into SAP. AMEA grew plus 11.9% with volume/mix growth of more than 3%. OI dollars increased plus 18.1%. India and Australia, grew double digits, while China increased high single digits in the quarter. Latin America grew more than 35% with OI dollar growth of nearly plus 37%. LA top line grew more than 16% ex Argentina. Mexico, the Western Andean countries and Brazil, once again delivered great results. Ricolino grew high single digits and remains on track in terms of integration work.

Clif的獲利能力持續提升。正如我上個季度所說，由於我們已將平台整合到SAP中，因此仍存在一些協同效應提升的機會。 AMEA地區成長11.9%，銷售/產品組合成長超過3%。營業收入成長18.1%。印度和澳洲實現了兩位數成長，而中國在本季實現了接近兩位數的成長。拉丁美洲成長超過35%，營業收入成長近37%。除阿根廷外，拉丁美洲的營收成長超過16%。墨西哥、安地斯山脈西部國家和巴西再次取得了優異的表現。 Ricolino實現了接近兩位數的成長，並且在整合工作方面進展順利。

Moving to Page 16. We delivered nearly $650 million in gross profit dollar growth or more than 22%, driven by top line growth, volume leverage and productivity. Year-to-date, GP dollar growth is now more than $1.7 billion. This provides ample funding to reinvest for future growth and flow to the net earnings line.

翻到第16頁。我們實現了近6.5億美元的毛利成長，增幅超過22%，這主要得益於營收成長、銷售提升和生產效率提高。今年迄今為止，毛利成長已超過17億美元。這為未來的成長和淨利潤的提升提供了充足的再投資資金。

OI dollar growth was more than $300 million for the quarter or up more than 24% versus last year, driven by solid cost discipline, effective pricing and volume leverage. Year-to-date OI dollars have grown $880 million or almost 24%. EPS on Slide 17. Year-to-date, EPS grew more than 18% in constant currency or more than 13% reported dollars, driven primarily by strong operating gains.

本季營業收入成長超過3億美元，年成長超過24%，主要得益於穩健的成本控制、有效的定價和銷售槓桿效應。年初至今，營業收入累計成長8.8億美元，成長近24%。每股盈餘（EPS）數據見第17頁。年初至今，以固定匯率計算，每股盈餘成長超過18%；以報告美元計算，成長超過13%，主要得益於強勁的營業利潤成長。

Turning to Slide 18. Free cash flow is $2.4 billion year-to-date, which represents an increase of $0.5 billion year-over-year. Year-to-date, capital return is $2.2 billion. Moving to our outlook on Page 20. Given the strength of our Q3 and year-to-date performance, strong volume/mix momentum across our brands and overall demand resilience, we are now raising our full year outlook for both revenue and EPS. We now expect top line growth of 14% to 15% versus our original outlook of 5% to 7%, and most recent outlook of 12% plus.

請翻至第18頁。截至目前，自由現金流為24億美元，年增5億美元。截至目前，資本回報為22億美元。接下來請看第20頁的展望。鑑於我們第三季及年初至今的強勁業績、旗下各品牌銷售/產品組合的強勁增長勢頭以及整體需求的韌性，我們現在上調全年營收和每股收益預期。我們目前預期營收成長率為14%至15%，高於先前5%至7%的預期，以及最近一次預測的12%以上。

EPS growth is also expected to be approximately 16% versus our prior outlook of 12% plus and original outlook of high single-digit. In terms of the assumptions, no change to our double-digit inflation. We also expect interest expenses of approximately $325 million for the year. Leverage is expected to be in the mid- to upper [2s] range by year-end.

預計每股收益成長率約為16%，高於我們先前12%以上的預期以及最初的高個位數成長預期。在假設方面，我們維持兩位數的通膨預期不變。我們預計全年利息支出約為3.25億美元。預計到年底，槓桿率將處於中高水準[2s]。

With respect to currency, we now expect $0.15 of EPS headwinds related to ForEx impact for the year versus $0.11 in our prior outlook, of which $0.12 have been materialized already in the year-to-date. On the gum divestiture that became effective as of the beginning of October, this current outlook reflects the loss of the business for the entirety of Q4. We are not providing yet restated financials as teams are working through the definition of the impact and importantly, the removal of stranded costs.

關於匯率影響，我們目前預計全年每股收益將因外匯匯率波動而減少0.15美元，高於先前預測的0.11美元，其中0.12美元的影響已在年初至今顯現。關於10月初生效的口香糖業務剝離，目前的預測反映了該業務在第四季度的損失。由於團隊正在評估該業務的影響，尤其是確定擱淺成本的消除，我們暫時不提供重述後的財務數據。

While we will provide a full update in the next earnings cycle, we do not expect any material EPS dilution as we will remove majority of stranded costs in '24. The outlook revision reflects our increased confidence in the year, ongoing resilience of consumer consumption in our categories, relatively benign elasticities, continued brand reinvestments and completion of pricing in Europe and the health of our emerging markets.

雖然我們將在下一個財報週期提供完整更新，但由於我們將在2024年消除大部分擱淺成本，因此預計每股盈餘不會出現實質稀釋。這項展望調整反映了我們對今年的信心增強、我們所在品類消費者消費的持續韌性、相對溫和的彈性、持續的品牌再投資、歐洲定價的完成以及新興市場的良好狀況。

There is a lot of volatility around the world, and it is important to note that this current outlook does not reflect a material deterioration of the geopolitical environment and ForEx rounding some areas of the business. Finally, a word on share repurchases. Now that we have received the proceeds of our sales [of gum], our balance sheet is the strongest it has ever been, with long tenure debt at very compelling interest rates relative to the current cost environment.

全球市場波動劇烈，值得注意的是，目前的展望並未反映地緣政治環境的實質惡化，外匯波動也未對部分業務造成影響。最後，關於股票回購。鑑於我們已收到口香糖銷售所得款項，我們的資產負債表處於歷史最佳狀態，長期債務的利率相對於當前的成本環境而言極具吸引力。

We decided to post buybacks in Q3 and were in our traditional (inaudible) peer late in the quarter, and the month leading up to earnings. However, we expect to consider buybacks for the remainder of the year and into next, given the current stock price, versus our view of intrinsic value and long-term potential of our company. We realize we have underspent versus our original outlook of $2 billion for the year and that provides the opportunity to take advantage of current low stock price levels.

我們決定在第三季進行股票回購，並在季末和財報發布前一個月與我們傳統的（聽不清楚）同業持平。然而，鑑於目前的股價以及我們對公司內在價值和長期潛力的看法，我們預計在今年剩餘時間和明年都會繼續考慮股票回購。我們意識到，我們目前的支出低於最初設定的20億美元年度目標，這為我們提供了利用當前低股價進行回購的機會。

Additionally, we could pull forward from our '24 share repurchases if an appropriate opportunity presented itself. We will be flexible and opportunistic in our [timing] depending on the various (inaudible) factors. We believe this is the right thing to do given the current context. Importantly, this does not represent a change in our ability to pursue our well-defined capital allocation strategies as our priorities remain the same in terms of reinvesting in the business and in selecting strategically and financially attractive bolt-on M&As as well as strong dividend growth.

此外，如果出現適當的時機，我們可能會提前進行原定於2024年進行的股票回購。我們將根據各種（聽不清楚）因素靈活把握時機。我們認為，鑑於目前的情況，這是正確的做法。重要的是，這並不意味著我們會改變既定的資本配置策略，因為我們在業務再投資、選擇具有戰略和財務吸引力的併購項目以及實現強勁的股息增長方面的優先事項保持不變。

With that, let's open the line for questions.

接下來，我們開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Dirk, clearly, pricing, as you went through is very strong in the quarter. But despite this volume came in better than our forecast in every region as well. And we know price sort of comes and goes. So I'd really like your thoughts more on how you feel about the sustainability of volume growth going forward, particularly in the context of sort of the state of the consumer as you see it?

德克，正如你剛才所說，本季的定價策略非常強勁。但儘管如此，所有地區的銷售量也都超出了我們的預期。我們都知道價格總是有起有落的。所以我很想聽聽你對未來銷售成長可持續性的看法，尤其是在你認為的當前消費者狀況的背景下？

Yes. Thank you, Andrew, and hello. First of all, yes, maybe restating quickly what is driving the volume growth in the different regions to give a clarification around that. And yes, we are constructive as it relates to volume for the remainder of this year and next year and then talk a little bit about the consumer. So we have a strong volume/mix across all our regions. And overall, we're up almost 4%. If I start with North America, there we are up 4.6% in year-to-date, 3% in volume/mix.

是的。謝謝你，安德魯，你好。首先，是的，或許可以快速重申各個地區銷售成長的驅動因素，讓大家更能理解。是的，我們對今年剩餘時間和明年的銷售都持樂觀態度，接下來我們再談談消費者。我們所有地區的銷售和產品組合都表現強勁。總體而言，我們成長了近4%。先說說北美，今年迄今成長了4.6%，銷量和產品組合成長了3%。

The categories are experiencing a little bit of softness there. But our biscuit business is performing significantly better and delivering some significant volume share gains, about 1.2 points in the last 3 months. We also have that from unmeasured channels, which are performing well, the club channels, online because consumers are shifting there because that gives them better pricing opportunities.

整體而言，各類別略顯疲軟。但我們的餅乾業務表現顯著優於其他品類，銷售份額大幅成長，過去三個月成長了約1.2個百分點。此外，一些未計入銷售數據的管道，例如會員店和線上管道，也表現良好，因為消費者正在轉向線上購物，以獲得更優惠的價格。

Switching to Europe. There, we see a 3.3% volume/mix increase. Year-to-date, that is flat seen disruption that we had in the beginning of the year. We see biscuits and chocolate volumes being quite resilient. And in Q3, we saw the volume/mix growth accelerating, outpacing the rest of food. The reason there is that the elasticities are quite solid. And we have to also take into account that we are lapping 2022 disruptions in Europe. And then emerging markets is up 3.4% in volume/mix.

轉而關注歐洲市場。歐洲市場的銷售/產品組合成長了3.3%。年初至今，這一成長基本持平，與年初的市場波動基本一致。餅乾和巧克力的銷量表現出相當強的韌性。第三季度，餅乾和巧克力的銷售/產品組合成長加速，超過了其他食品類別。這是因為它們的彈性相當強勁。此外，我們還必須考慮到，歐洲市場目前已基本擺脫了2022年市場波動的影響。新興市場的銷售/產品組合成長了3.4%。

Year-to-date, also 3.4%, but we have certain markets like India and Mexico, where we have double-digit volume growth. It's quite remarkable because these markets have quite significant pricing, all the emerging markets. And the reason being is that the consumer confidence is quite good. The demand is resilient. We see the consumer in places like India, China, Mexico are in a 4-year high, and that is clearly having an effect on demand.

今年迄今為止，銷售成長也達到了3.4%，但我們在印度和墨西哥等特定市場實現了兩位數的銷售成長。這非常引人注目，因為這些市場，包括所有新興市場，定價都相當高。原因在於消費者信心十足，需求強勁。我們看到，在印度、中國和墨西哥等地，消費者信心處於四年來的最高水平，這顯然對需求產生了影響。

We also are gaining in these markets by expanding our distribution. That's always an extra benefit that we have. And we've been doing smart downsizing. One of the things we do in these markets is of our LUPs, or lower unit price. We try to keep that price constant that we have the entry into the category not being affected. Going forward, we expect the recovery in Europe to continue because pricing has landed, and we are back on the shelf, and we are running full force in our commercial activities.

我們透過擴大分銷管道在這些市場也取得了進展。這始終是我們的優勢之一。同時，我們也一直在進行合理的精簡。在這些市場，我們採取的措施之一是降低單價（LUP）。我們努力保持價格穩定，以確保進入該品類的門檻不受影響。展望未來，我們預期歐洲市場的復甦將持續，因為定價已經穩定，我們的產品重新上架，我們正在全力進行各項商業活動。

Our inventory levels around the world are very healthy, including in North America, so we don't see any effects there. The elasticities remain relatively benign. But here and there, some modest upticks, but all the dynamics are included in our outlook. We think that the expansion of volume in emerging markets is going to continue. And in fact, it's a good problem to have. But in India and Mexico, the key challenge is to -- how to keep up with the heavy volume increase that we're seeing.

我們全球庫存水準非常健康，包括北美地區，因此我們預計不會受到任何影響。彈性係數仍然相對溫和。雖然個別地區會出現一些小幅增長，但所有這些因素都已納入我們的預期。我們認為新興市場銷售成長動能將會持續。事實上，這的確是一個令人欣喜的「問題」。但在印度和墨西哥，關鍵挑戰在於如何應對目前銷售量的大幅成長。

And then we believe that everything we're doing for our long-term strategy is the things we are focused on and different activities that we have planned is a confirmation that it's working for us, particularly also, for instance, the reinvestments we're doing. Maybe quickly on the consumer because that is probably the biggest factor to keep in mind as you think about volumes going forward. We find that consumer demand remains very resilient in our key markets. Consumers continue to prioritize spending on grocery and branded products. And we see the consumer confidence outlook for '24 stable for developed markets in North America and Europe, but very positive for emerging markets.

我們相信，我們為長期策略所做的一切，以及我們計劃開展的各項活動，都印證了這些舉措的有效性，尤其是我們正在進行的再投資。或許應該專注於消費者，因為這可能是影響未來銷售的最重要因素。我們發現，在主要市場，消費者需求仍然非常強勁。消費者繼續優先考慮食品雜貨和品牌產品的支出。我們預計，2024年北美和歐洲等已開發市場的消費者信心指數將保持穩定，而新興市場的消費者信心指數則非常樂觀。

So if I quickly think this through, modest improvement probably in consumer confidence in Europe and Australia. Why? Because the inflation is clearly easing there. They see the real disposable income go up. There is some shifting to smaller packs in places like France and the U.K. and to discounters because they're looking still for value for money.

如果我快速分析一下，歐洲和澳洲的消費者信心可能會略有改善。為什麼呢？因為那裡的通膨明顯放緩，消費者的實際可支配收入增加。在法國和英國等地，消費者開始轉向購買小包裝商品，也會去折扣店購物，因為他們仍然追求性價比。

But overall, we feel pretty good about the consumer in Europe and Australia. In the U.S. and Canada, we think the consumer confidence will be holding, but we have to monitor the trends quite closely because we see shifts to non-measured channels, as I said, such as e-commerce and club, we see buying of more multipacks. We see lower income families pull back on the amount of the frequency of their trips to the store. And we also have the delayed unwinding of the pantry loading from -- due to the phasing out of the SNAP benefits.

但整體而言，我們對歐洲和澳洲的消費者信心相當樂觀。在美國和加拿大，我們認為消費者信心將保持穩定，但我們必須密切關注市場趨勢，因為我們看到消費正在向一些非統計管道轉移，正如我之前提到的，例如電商和會員店，我們看到消費者購買更多多件裝商品。我們也看到低收入家庭減少了去商店購物的頻率。此外，由於食品券（SNAP）福利的逐步取消，囤積食品的情況也逐漸減少。

And then emerging markets, we continue to see steady improvements with those 4-year highs that I was talking about. Consumer is very optimistic about the future. Even in China, consumer confidence is improving, but slower, but we still have like 60% of all Chinese families expect their income to improve. Private label, maybe. Private label is losing share in the U.S. and Canada. There is a bit of a watch out in Europe because brands have been taking pricing. But overall, I would say, we feel very good about the outlook for the rest of the year and for next year.

至於新興市場，我們看到它們持續穩定改善，並保持我之前提到的四年高點。消費者對未來非常樂觀。即使在中國，消費者信心也在增強，儘管速度較慢，但仍有約60%的中國家庭預期收入會有所提高。自有品牌的情況可能有所不同。自有品牌在美國和加拿大的市佔率正在下降。歐洲市場需要格外關注，因為品牌商一直在降價。但總的來說，我認為我們對今年剩餘時間和明年的前景都非常樂觀。

Great. Really helpful. And a very quick follow-up just for Luca, I think. Just regarding what the implications are for 4Q based on your updated full year guidance. And maybe more importantly, any high-level thoughts to consider for '24 at this point?

太好了，真的很有幫助。還有一個問題想問盧卡，我想問的是，根據您更新後的全年業績指引，第四季會受到哪些影響？更重要的是，目前對於2024年有什麼總體規劃嗎？

Thank you, Andrew. So our revised top line estimate of 14% to 15% implies a revenue growth for Q4, which is roundabout 7% to 10%. Which considering we are lapping a 15.5% top line growth last year, makes really the 2-year stack comparable to year-to-date numbers. And so I think that should give you a sense of where we're going to land Q4. Keep in mind that we also want to keep a tight control on retailer inventory as we enter next year because, obviously, there is potentially some pricing, and we want really to enter with a strong momentum into Q1.

謝謝安德魯。我們修訂後的營收成長預期為14%至15%，這意味著第四季營收將成長約7%至10%。考慮到我們去年的營收成長率為15.5%，兩年累計成長率與今年迄今的成長率基本持平。因此，我認為這應該能讓您對我們第四季的業績有所了解。請記住，進入明年，我們也希望嚴格控制零售商的庫存，因為顯然可能會出現一些價格波動，我們希望以強勁的勢頭進入第一季。

On EPS, the expected growth of roundabout 16% for the year implies a moderate increase in constant currency in Q4. Reason for that is, again, the heightened investment in A&C. And in addition, as I said in the prepared remarks, there is some ForEx volatility, particularly around certain markets like Argentina, Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt. And it is quite difficult to predict what exchange rates will be in the course of the quarter. So quite, frankly, I have been a little bit cautious with our assumption. And as I don't want to surprise anyone.

關於每股盈餘（EPS），全年預計成長約16%，這意味著第四季以固定匯率計算將出現溫和成長。原因依然是A&C（資產與成本）投資的增加。此外，正如我在事先準備好的演講稿中所述，外匯市場存在一定的波動，尤其是在阿根廷、奈及利亞、巴基斯坦和埃及等特定市場。預測本季匯率走勢相當困難。因此，坦白說，我對我們的假設一直比較謹慎，因為我不想讓任何人感到驚訝。

Also remember, gum is completely removed from this number. So this is not really a like-for-like. And I think you're going to like -- realize the EPS and continued profit expansion in Q4. I also want to reassure you that the emerging markets are doing very, very, very well. And we don't necessarily disclose numbers, but EBIT is up more than 20% in emerging markets on a year-to-date basis in real dollar terms.

另外，請記住，這個數字完全剔除了口香糖的利潤。所以這並非真正意義上的同類比較。我相信您會喜歡第四季度每股收益和持續的利潤成長。我也想向您保證，新興市場的表現非常非常出色。我們通常不會公開具體數字，但以實際美元計算，新興市場今年迄今的息稅前利潤成長超過20%。

So these are, again, a market that can be volatile. But in the end, they deliver good profit for us. On '24, we are clearly in the process of finalizing our plan, but I can give you a little bit of the soundbites around '24. First of all, I think it is undeniable that the business is having good momentum, and that momentum from where we sit today will continue as we enter into -- as we go into '24, both in terms of top and bottom line.

所以，這又是一個波動性較大的市場。但最終，它們能為我們帶來豐厚的利潤。關於2024年，我們顯然正在敲定最終計劃，但我可以先簡單透露2024年的一些想法。首先，我認為毋庸置疑，公司目前發展勢頭良好，而且這種勢頭將延續到2024年，無論從營收或利潤來看都是如此。

Pricing contribution will be clearly less important [that] this year, but we still see pricing contributing more than an average year, particularly as we need to price for cocoa, sugar and other commodities. A good portion as we went through the plans with the majority of the business units, a good portion of growth both in developed and emerging markets will be coming through distribution expansion. And that will help preserve volume momentum into '24. And I think you know that our categories in emerging markets are under-penetrated and we have made investment to really continue to grow.

定價對業績的貢獻顯然會比今年有所下降，但我們預計定價的貢獻仍然會高於往年平均水平，尤其是在我們需要對可可、糖和其他大宗商品進行定價的情況​​下。正如我們與大多數業務部門討論計劃時所指出的，已開發市場和新興市場的大部分成長都將來自分銷管道的擴張。這將有助於維持2024年的銷售成長動能。我想您也知道，我們在新興市場的滲透率較低，我們已進行投資以真正實現持續成長。

Platforms that we have acquired in recent months like Clif and Ricolino are progressing very well. And they will deliver more synergies as we go into '24. And while I don't have a number on the gum divestiture to disclose to you, the idea that we have is really to get rid of all the stranded costs associated with the divestiture of gum in developed markets. And so I can't be more precise, but so far, so good in terms of '24 expected financials I would say.

我們近幾個月收購的平台，例如Clif和Ricolino，進展非常順利。隨著我們進入2024年，它們將帶來更多協同效應。雖然我目前無法透露口香糖業務剝離的具體數字，但我們的想法是徹底消除已開發市場口香糖業務剝離相關的所有擱淺成本。因此，我無法給出更精確的估計，但就2024年的預期財務狀況而言，目前一切進展順利。

Our next question comes from Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

I just wanted to get a clearer sense of the messaging around share repo. You paused in 3Q. You reduced your outlook for the year. But at the same time, you're saying, hey, if there's an opportunity, maybe you can pull forward some of your planned repo for '24, if I heard that right. So I just wanted to making sure I heard that right that I can reconcile these comments. And maybe it's just as simple as you pivoted a bit toward debt paydown earlier this year, you weren't 100% sure when gum would close. Now these factors are somewhat behind you, so you can forge ahead on buybacks. I just wasn't sure. It's a little bit of a whipsaw effect there in terms of how we're seeing or I'm seeing the commentary and just wanted to make sure I can clarify that.

我只是想更清楚地了解一下關於股票回購的資訊。你們在第三季暫停了回購，也下調了全年的業績預期。但同時，你們又說，如果機會合適，也許可以提前進行一些原計劃在2024年進行的回購，如果我理解沒錯的話。所以我只是想確認一下我的理解是否正確，以便能夠理解這些說法。也許事情很簡單，你們今年早些時候稍微調整了策略，優先償還債務，因為當時你們還不能完全確定何時才能完成交易。現在這些因素已經基本消除，所以你們可以繼續推進股票回購了。我只是不太確定。就我看到的這些評論而言，情況有點前後矛盾，所以我想確認一下。

Thank you, Ken. No, you're absolutely correct and right in your analysis. We continue to see share repurchases as a key driver of total shareholder return. I do analysis regularly on the buybacks that we do historically, and we present them to our Board as well. I mean, it's fair to say that all the repurchases we have done since the creation of Mondelez have yielded good -- very good returns, well in excess of our cost of capital.

謝謝你，肯。不，你的分析完全正確。我們始終認為股票回購是股東總報酬的關鍵驅動因素。我會定期分析我們歷年的回購情況，並將分析結果提交給董事會。我的意思是，可以說，自從億滋國際成立以來，我們所有的股票回購都帶來了豐厚的回報，遠遠超過了我們的資本成本。

Our ability to buy back stock at this point in time is meaningful considering what we have bought so far this year. And look, we will remain flexible and disciplined. Reality is, I also believe that our stock is a bit undervalued at this point in time. And so we will be tactical in the way we approach this. But I don't have really much to add versus what you correctly said in your question.

考慮到我們今年迄今的購入量，我們目前有能力回購股票意義重大。而且，我們會保持靈活和自律。事實上，我認為我們目前的股票估值偏低。因此，我們會採取策略性的方法。不過，除了您在問題中提到的內容之外，我沒有什麼要補充的了。

I also want to make sure that it is clear that this doesn't imply anything in terms of changes from our capital allocation framework. I mentioned Clif and Ricolino in the prepared remarks. I'm very pleased with the numbers that I see coming through. I think those were great opportunity for us to deploy capital. Dirk mentioned that we have some capacity constraints. There is nothing better in my mind that investing in brands that are proven like Oreo, Milka, Cadbury Dairy Milk. Proven proposition, distribution gains, et cetera, are really making the return on those investments quite good. And finally, dividends, we are committed, and we will continue to raise dividends in the foreseeable future. So strong cash flow, I think, you might have seen $0.5 billion up versus last year. Everything is going fine in terms of capital allocation, I would say.

我還想澄清一點，這並不意味著我們的資本配置框架會有任何改變。我在事先準備好的發言稿中提到了Clif和Ricolino。我對目前的業績非常滿意。我認為這些公司為我們提供了絕佳的資本部署機會。 Dirk提到我們面臨一些產能限制。在我看來，沒有什麼比投資像奧利奧、妙卡、吉百利牛奶巧克力這樣經過市場驗證的品牌更好的選擇了。成熟的商業模式、通路的拓展等等，都使得這些投資的回報相當可觀。最後，關於股息，我們承諾在可預見的未來繼續提高股息。現金流強勁，我認為你們可能已經看到比去年增加了5億美元。就資本配置而言，一切都進展順利。

And then quickly, just at the risk of, I guess, eliciting some groans maybe by dredging up last month's topic. Just curious where you are in your research about GLP-1s? Even on a broad level, if you don't have specifics, is there a reason to think that your snacking categories won't be affected, just assuming there's any impact at all? Just wanted to kind of pick around for your initial thoughts there.

然後，我得趕緊問一句，雖然我知道重提上個月的話題可能會引起一些抱怨。我只是好奇你對GLP-1的研究進展到哪一步了？即使只是粗略地了解，如果沒有具體數據，假設它確實會產生影響，你覺得你的零食攝取類別不會受到影響嗎？我只是想了解你的初步想法。

Yes. Thanks, Ken. Well, first of all, I think the whole topic has been overblown. And I think it's important to put it in perspective and look at the data. At this stage, we see absolutely no short-term impact on our results. We don't see it in our business. We are, of course, monitoring and we have a special work stream to stay close to the topic. We do estimates, we do projections, we talk to pharmaceutical companies, we talk to consumers and so on. So we're staying close to the subject.

是的，謝謝，肯。首先，我認為整個主題被過度渲染了。我認為重要的是要客觀地看待這個問題，並查看數據。現階段，我們完全看不到任何對短期業績的影響。在我們的業務中，我們沒有看到任何影響。當然，我們一直在密切關注事態發展，並且我們有一個專門的工作小組來密切關注這個問題。我們會進行估價、預測，我們會與製藥公司溝通，我們會與消費者溝通等等。所以我們一直在密切關注這個問題。

But long term, even using the most optimistic forecast, we believe the impact will be very modest to our volumes in our categories. We're talking about 0.5% to 1% volume effect 10 years down the road. That's based on what we know today and projections that are not ours, but that are being used by several different sources, and that assumes quite significant adoption rates of the drug.

但從長遠來看，即使採用最樂觀的預測，我們也認為其對我們各品類銷售的影響非常有限。我們預計十年後銷量影響僅為0.5%至1%。這是基於我們目前掌握的資訊以及一些其他來源（而非我們自身）的預測，並且假設該藥物的普及率相當高。

Even if the impact would be bigger than that, I think over a 10-year period, it will be manageable, and we will have adequate lead time to adjust and prepare for any changes that we see. Having said all that, if you think about it, obesity rates around the world are very different. And we have one of the lowest exposures since 75% of our sales come from outside of the U.S., 40% of our sales are in emerging markets. And so the average BMIs in all those countries are much lower than in the U.S. So our exposure is significantly lower than some of the other food companies.

即使影響比這更大，我認為在十年內也是可以控制的，我們有足夠的時間進行調整和準備，以應對任何可能的變化。話雖如此，仔細想想，世界各地的肥胖率差異很大。由於我們75%的銷售額來自美國以外，其中40%來自新興市場，因此我們面臨的風險相對較低。這些國家的平均BMI值遠低於美國。所以，我們的風險敞口遠低於其他一些食品公司。

On top of that, I believe that our portfolio is really well positioned. We constantly innovate and adapt our products. We do that all the time to adapt to changing consumers' tastes and behaviors. Portion control is a big part of our strategy. So 20% of our sales are already in snacks that are less than 200 calories. We have a large part of our portfolio that is chocolate, which is not hunger satisfaction, but it's a small indulgence. And we have healthier alternatives like for the breakfast occasion, belVita, which is a replacement snack or some of our snack bars, which are meal replacement, and that fit perfectly into the diet of a GLP-1 patient.

除此之外，我認為我們的產品組合定位非常精準。我們不斷創新並調整產品，以適應消費者不斷變化的口味和行為。控制份量是我們策略的重要組成部分。目前，我們20%的銷售額來自低於200卡路里的零食。我們的產品組合中很大一部分是巧克力，它並非用來滿足飢餓感，而是一種小小的享受。我們也提供更健康的替代品，例如早餐時分的belVita，它是一種代餐零食；還有一些能量棒，它們可以作為代餐，非常適合GLP-1患者的飲食。

So if I go through all that and if I'm honest, at this stage, this is really into our top areas that we are focused on and that we are trying to manage. We monitor it, but it's really not a big concern for us at this stage.

所以，如果我把所有這些都梳理清楚，坦白說，現階段，這確實是我們重點關注和努力管控的領域。我們會密切關注，但就目前而言，這並不是我們非常擔心的問題。

Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭。

So I guess I had one follow-up to Ken's question and another question. In terms of the follow-up to Ken's, in terms of capital allocation. Luca, you had -- you were opportunistic, right, in terms of paying down commercial paper. You paid off the term loan this year, kind of attacking some of those either variable rate or avoiding sort of swapping out of low interest to high interest.

所以我想我對肯的問題有一個後續問題，還有一個問題。關於對肯的問題的後續問題，也就是關於資本配置的問題。盧卡，你在償還商業票據方面——你當時很善於把握機會，對吧？你今年還清了定期貸款，算是對一些浮動利率的貸款進行了減持，或者避免了用低利率貸款換高利率貸款。

So as you're looking over the next year or 2, like are there even many opportunities to where you would opportunistically pay down debt? Or again, not changing your capital allocation sort of philosophy, but just it doesn't seem -- it doesn't appear that paying down debt would necessarily be at the top of the list just given what you've done over the past year? And then I have a follow-up.

所以，展望未來一兩年，您是否有很多機會可以藉此機會償還債務？或者說，我並不是想要改變您的資本配置理念，只是考慮到您過去一年的做法，償還債務似乎並非首要任務？我還有一個後續問題。

No, I think that's absolutely correct. We are very happy with the loan tenure debt that we have. The average cost of debt is very compelling. It was a series of decisions that we took over the last few months, including the sell-down of KDP, to really go and strengthen the balance sheet and making sure that we were not facing material pressure in the interest cost line.

不，我認為這完全正確。我們對目前的貸款期限和債務結構非常滿意。平均債務成本非常吸引人。過去幾個月，我們採取了一系列決策，包括出售KDP股份，以真正加強資產負債表，並確保我們在利息成本方面不會面臨重大壓力。

I think in hindsight, that has proven to be quite a good decision. The reality is, I still see our stock as undervalued. And so when you look at the cash flow this year, and you adjust for the coffee taxes that are really onetime in nature, I mean, you start talking about $3.7 billion, $3.8 billion of cash flow generation. And I think if you take that and continuous growth of dividend, we have what it takes really to manage the business very well.

現在看來，這的確是個相當明智的決定。事實上，我仍然認為我們的股票被低估了。所以，如果你看今年的現金流，並扣除一次性的咖啡稅，你會發現我們可以產生37億到38億美元的現金流。我認為，如果再加上持續成長的股息，我們就完全有能力把公司經營得非常好。

And so I don't feel really compelled at this point in time to go and pay down more debt. We have some debt coming due next year. It is absolutely manageable. And when that comes due, hopefully, interest costs will be lower than today, but again, not really a major concern for me at this point.

所以，目前我並不覺得有必要償還更多債務。我們明年確實有一些債務到期，但完全在可控範圍內。到時候，希望利息成本會比現在低，不過話說回來，這對我來說目前並不是什麼大問題。

Okay. Great. And then just 2 follow-ups on some of the commentary you've made about '24. And I might have missed this, but I think you had said previously mid-single-digit cost of goods inflation for '24. So just is that still something we should work with? And then as we're thinking about organic sales growth, I think, you've been in this quarter, if you take Argentina and gum, collectively, they contributed about 500 basis points to the organic sales comp.

好的，太好了。接下來我想就您之前對2024年的一些評論做兩個後續提問。我可能錯過了，但我記得您之前說過2024年商品成本通膨率會是中等個位數。那麼，我們是否仍應該以此為依據呢？另外，說到有機銷售成長，我認為，如果您把阿根廷市場和口香糖業務算在內，它們合計為有機銷售額貢獻了大約500個基點。

So just -- I don't know, as we're thinking about not extrapolating too much, right? Just how we should think about some of the other puts and takes on organic sales growth and understanding you gave some comments about volume and price, but just want to get your perspective on that, those 2 items?

所以，我不知道，因為我們都在考慮不要過度推斷，對吧？我們應該如何看待其他一些關於有機銷售成長的觀點和看法？你提到了一些關於銷售和價格的評論，但我只是想聽聽你對這兩方面的看法？

Yes. Maybe look, transparently and it is noted both on the pages of the prepared remarks and in my script. Argentina, I think, in total for the company accounted for a little bit more than 2 points, not much more than that. If you strip out gum completely from the year-to-date numbers and for the -- both volume and revenue, I would say, there is no material change to either volume or net revenue. So in terms of growth rates, I would say, Argentina is clear, but it has always been in that range, I would say, a little bit higher in Q3.

是的。或許可以這樣理解，這一點在準備好的發言稿和我的講稿中都有明確說明。我認為，阿根廷市場對公司整體貢獻略高於2個百分點，不會再高太多。如果從年初至今的數據中完全剔除口香糖業務，無論是銷量或收入，我認為銷量和淨收入都沒有實質變化。因此，就成長率而言，阿根廷市場表現清晰，但一直都在這個範圍內，第三季略高一些。

In terms of gum, no material impact to the top line dynamics on both volume and revenue. I think as you go into next year, or as we go into next year, the inflation that you're going to see is higher than mid-single digit. I think it is going to be towards the higher end of 5% to 10% at this point in time. Coco lately has -- had a material spike. The reason being the pulp count coming out of Ivory Coast in Africa has been materially different than what people expected, I would say.

就口香糖而言，銷售量和收入方面均未受到實質影響。我認為，進入明年，通膨率將高於個位數中段，目前來看，預計會在5%到10%之間。可可價格近期出現了顯著上漲，原因在於非洲科特迪瓦的可可果肉含量與預期有較大差異。

So there is pressure on coco. The good news is we are covered for a good portion of the first half next year, and we are protected as well for the remainder of the year. So I'm not going to give you a lot of details here, but you would expect inflation in general to go up. And lately, I think you know, energy costs have been going up a little bit more crude oil, particularly. So I would say, we are not done. I believe in terms of inflation at this point in time. There still could be variability. Exchange rates is the other one that comes into play.

所以可可價格面臨壓力。好消息是，明年上半年大部分時間我們都有保障，下半年也是如此。我不打算在這裡透露太多細節，但總體而言，通膨預計會上升。而且最近，能源成本，尤其是原油價格，一直在上漲。所以我認為，通膨情勢尚未完全明朗。目前來看，通膨仍可能有波動。匯率是另一個需要考慮的因素。

But it might be a little bit higher than the mid-single digits we told you, but we are going to be flexible for sure. As we go through the plans, we have a sensitivity analysis, and we make sure that we are never going to be caught by surprise here. Our coverage is favorable, but we will be pricing at replacement cost into '24.

但實際價格可能會比我們之前告訴您的個位數略高一些，不過我們肯定會靈活應對。在製定計畫的過程中，我們會進行敏感度分析，確保不會有任何意外情況。我們的保險覆蓋範圍很優惠，但我們會按照重置成本定價，直到2024年。

Our next question comes from David Palmer, Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

Just, first, a follow-up on Andrew's 2024 question. It seems like we should be thinking at least in an Algo year for profit, but maybe a little bit higher than normal on revenue, largely because of the pricing side. Correct me if I'm wrong on that thinking. But digging deeper, I just wanted to ask you, you mentioned some things that were giving you confidence about next year, such as the distribution gains in emerging markets. What are some of the hurdles or watchouts that you're really thinking about specifically for your business? Earlier this year, it was about getting through pricing in Europe. What are some things you're really watching out for as you go into this next year?

首先，我想就安德魯提出的2024年問題做個後續問題。看來我們至少應該把獲利預期設定在演算法交易年，但營收可能會比往年略高，這主要是因為定價方面的原因。如果我的想法有誤，請指正。更深入來說，我想問的是，您提到了一些讓您對明年充滿信心的因素，例如新興市場的分銷成長。您目前特別關注哪些方面的挑戰或需要注意的問題？今年早些時候，我們主要關注的是如何在歐洲市場定價。那麼，在明年，您又特別關注哪些面向呢？

Thank you, David. I don't want to spoil the '24 guidance too much. I know you really want to get a sense of where '24 is going to be. Look at this point, we have made material investments in the business this year. We believe our categories are very sound across the world. I think we -- you saw the share numbers we have been posting. We are happy with overall business momentum. I don't want to say exactly how next year is going to play out at this point.

謝謝你，大衛。我不想過多劇透2024年的業績預期。我知道你很想知道2024年的前景。目前來看，我們今年對業務進行了大量投資。我們相信我們在全球的各個業務板塊都非常穩健。我想——你也看到了我們公佈的市佔率數據。我們對整體業務發展動能感到滿意。現在我不想具體預測明年的業績。

I think your assertion on top line and bottom line is more or less correct. I said we are working through the implications of gum and the EPS impact of it and stranded costs. I'll give you a little bit more color in the next quarter. As far as distribution goes, look, particularly in emerging markets, there is a reason as to why we are telling you, China for us is okay or India is okay or Mexico is okay. And the reason is that our categories in general are under-penetrated.

我認為你對營收和利潤的分析基本上正確。我說過，我們正在研究口香糖業務的影響，包括其對每股盈餘和擱淺成本的影響。下個季度我會提供更詳細的資訊。至於分銷方面，尤其是在新興市場，我們之所以說中國、印度或墨西哥的市場狀況尚可，是有原因的。原因是我們產品的整體滲透率仍然較低。

And the second reason I would say is there is a meaningful amount of growth, both in developed and emerging markets that is coming out of distribution gains. I think in the U.S., for a series of reasons you know, supply chain-related, we lost some TDPs along the way. We are reinstating those TDPs. We are going into alternate channels where our share is a little bit lower. So at this point in time, I feel good that you're going to see a good quality top line into '24. Hopefully, that helps, but I can't spoil it much more than that.

第二個原因是，無論是在已開發市場或新興市場，分銷通路的拓展都帶來了顯著的成長。在美國，由於供應鏈等一系列原因，我們失去了一些分銷管道。我們正在重新建立這些管道。我們也在開拓其他管道，儘管我們在這些管道的份額略低。因此，目前我對2024年營收成長充滿信心。希望這些資訊對您有所幫助，但我不能透露更多了。

No, that's helpful. Just a quick question on the U.S. There was another player out there that we're seeing some reduced merchandising activity and shelf presence because of clean store initiative and a major retailer. You guys are pretty good at getting merchandising. Is that going to affect your business in the near term in the U.S.?

不，這很有幫助。關於美國市場，我有個小問題。我們看到另一家公司因為「清潔門市」計畫和一家大型零售商的緣故，減少了商品陳列活動和貨架展示。你們的商品陳列做得很好。這種情況會在短期內影響你們在美國的業務嗎？

No, no. We are in good shape as it relates to shelf availability and stock levels. The shelf availability is higher than it was last year. The stock levels are where they should be. They're not high. Our sales are higher, our units are higher. We have more displays, we have more items carried with that retailer. So we see no effect. I want to point out that we do have a DSD system that covers the stores and that is always very helpful in driving in-store execution and finding the necessary extra space and presence. And so we're also making sure that we have the right level of staffing at store level. But no, I cannot confirm that we see the same effect. We feel very good about how things are playing out at the moment.

不，不。就貨架供應和庫存水準而言，我們目前狀況良好。貨架供應量比去年同期更高。庫存水準也處於合理範圍，並不高。我們的銷售額和銷量都較高。我們增加了陳列，也增加了與該零售商合作的商品種類。因此，我們沒有看到任何影響。我想指出的是，我們擁有覆蓋所有門市的直接配送 (DSD) 系統，這對於推動店內執行、尋找必要的額外空間和提升陳列效果始終非常有幫助。此外，我們也確保門市配備充足的人員。但是，我無法確認我們是否看到了相同的影響。我們對目前的情況非常滿意。

Our next question comes from Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

Just wanted to check on Ricolino. You've said that the integration is progressing well. That's a case where you have a revenue synergy opportunity just given their distribution footprint. How quickly is that ramping up? Is it -- can you give an update on just how that's progressing and if that's coming along with your expectations? I think the expectation was it would give a lift to some of your legacy brands as well. How is that coming along?

我只是想了解Ricolino的情況。您提到整合進展順利。鑑於他們的分銷網絡，這確實是一個能帶來收入綜效的機會。目前的進展如何？能否更新一下具體情況，以及是否符合您的預期？我記得之前預期Ricolino也能提振您一些原有品牌的業績。目前進展如何？

Yes. So talking about the top line synergies, first, what -- how we're going to get those is that we are integrating the 2 distribution systems. And that will, for our side of the equation, triple the amount of distribution points that we will have. So pretty important top line synergies there. But the first step is to get that integration going. We're in the middle of testing. We had to carve out the distribution system out of Bimbo and for Ricolino and set up a new system, which is bigger than what we currently have in the company.

是的。說到營收綜效，首先，我們將整合兩個分銷系統，從而實現這一目標。這樣一來，我們的分銷點數量將增加兩倍。這會帶來非常重要的營收綜效。但第一步是啟動整合。我們目前正在進行測試。我們不得不從Bimbo和Ricolino剝離分銷系統，並建立一個新的系統，其規模比我們公司現有的系統更大。

So we have to open about 100 distribution centers. In Mexico, we're 3 quarters along the way with that, and that is going very well on time and as planned. And we have started the testing of the combined routes in several of those distribution centers. So the effect will start to take place from now going forward for the next 18 months, I would say, that we get the benefits to sort of work out for us. So far, everything is working out exactly as planned. And so we have high hopes that you will see the significant benefit from that next year.

所以我們需要開設大約100個配送中心。在墨西哥，我們已經完成了四分之三，一切進展順利，完全符合計畫。我們已經在幾個配送中心開始測試合併後的配送路線。我認為，從現在開始，在接下來的18個月裡，我們將逐漸感受到合併路線帶來的好處。目前為止，一切都按計劃進行。因此，我們非常有信心，明年您將看到合併路線帶來的顯著效益。

Our next question comes from Matt Smith, Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Matt Smith。

Just wanted to follow up on the commentary about the channel shift in the U.S. with club and e-commerce growing much faster than measured channels in the biscuit business. Can you talk about how that's impacting your share performance and if there's a margin difference for you between the channels? And maybe just as a follow-up, are you seeing or hearing from retailers in the measured channels that they're adjusting for the consumer behavior shift?

我想就美國餅乾產業通路轉變的評論做個後續探討，特別是俱樂部和電商管道的成長速度遠超傳統管道。您能否談談這種轉變對貴公司市場佔有率的影響，以及不同通路之間的利潤率是否有差異？另外，您是否注意到或聽說傳統通路的零售商正在調整策略以應對消費者行為的轉變？

Yes. So the -- yes, the shift is noticeable largely because those channels offer larger packs, both online and in the club channels, and that's what consumers are looking for. We see our volume share going up overall due to the share that we are gaining, although those channels are not always measured, but we know that our shares are going up there. So we feel pretty good about what's going on there. The margin for us is about the same. So we don't see a significant margin effect.

是的。所以，這種轉變之所以明顯，主要是因為這些管道，無論是線上或線下門市，都提供更大包裝的產品，而這正是消費者所需要的。我們看到整體銷售份額上升，這得益於我們市場份額的成長，儘管這些管道的銷售並非總是被統計在內，但我們知道我們的份額確實在上升。因此，我們對目前的情況相當滿意。我們的利潤率基本上保持不變，所以我們沒有看到利潤率受到顯著影響。

And as it relates to some of the consumer benefits we see, for instance, a brand like belVita is benefiting from that shift because it has a bigger presence in those channels. So overall, I would say, clearly a volume effect -- a volume and a share effect for us. No effect on the margins and no real necessary adaptation from our side.

就我們看到的一些消費者利益而言，例如，像belVita這樣的品牌就受益於這種轉變，因為它在這些管道的市佔率更大。所以總的來說，我認為這顯然是銷量成長——對我們來說，銷量和市場份額都有所提升。利潤率沒有受到影響，我們也不需要做出任何實質的調整。

Our final question comes from John Baumgartner, Mizuho Securities.

最後一個問題來自瑞穗證券的約翰·鮑姆加特納。

Luca, I'd like to ask about reinvestments. Overhead expenses were up double digits in Q3. They're also up double digits year-to-date as well, I think. Can you just update us on the progress there, where you've made the biggest improvements in capabilities for this year's spending? What capabilities you plan to build next with future investments into or through 2024? And then maybe how you're thinking about generating operating leverage on that spending as we move forward?

盧卡，我想問一下關於再投資的問題。第三季的營運費用成長了兩位數，而且我認為今年迄今的成長也是兩位數。能否簡單介紹一下這方面的進展？今年在哪些方面，你們的支出提升幅度最大？接下來，你們計劃透過未來的投資（直至2024年）來提升哪些能力？此外，您打算如何利用這些支出來提高營運槓桿？

Yes. So the numbers are somewhat impacted by the acquisitions as well. So the acquisitions are clearly incremental year-on-year and they make their way into the overhead cost and particularly so. The way you have to think about our overhead cost is the following. We have been managing inflation quite effectively as a company. Inflation, though, particularly labor-related inflation, has been a little bit higher. In these numbers, there is a cost associated with our management incentive plan and long-term incentive plan.

是的。所以，這些數字也受到收購的影響。收購顯然是逐年增加的，它們會直接計入管理費用，尤其是在營運成本方面。您需要這樣理解我們的管理費用：作為一家公司，我們一直有效地控制通貨膨脹。然而，通貨膨脹，特別是與勞動力相關的通貨膨脹，略有上升。這些數字中包含了與我們的管理層激勵計劃和長期激勵計劃相關的成本。

The company has done very well, and that has resulted in some incremental costs. All the rest in terms of corporate costs and other functions, we have been investing in 3 areas selectively. One, is these digital capabilities, and it is the biggest bump you see in corporate costs. We have been investing in sales, and we have been investing in marketing. All the other functions has managed inflation that is below [half] of the revenue growth in their respective market.

公司業績非常出色，但也因此增加了一些成本。在公司成本和其他職能方面，我們有選擇地在三個領域進行了投資。首先是數位化能力，這也是公司成本成長幅度最大的部分。其次是銷售和行銷。其他所有職能部門的通膨率都控制在各自市場收入成長的一半以下。

And functions like finance, particularly have been pretty much, I would say, a little bit higher than flat in terms of cost. So we have been selectively investing in 3 areas: digital services, sales and marketing, and that will continue into next year. All the rest has been kept absolutely in control. And then there is the cost associated with the acquisitions and management incentive plans. That's a simple way you have to think about it.

尤其是像財務這樣的職能部門，成本基本上一直高於平均水準。因此，我們一直在選擇性地投資於三個領域：數位服務、銷售和行銷，明年也將繼續這樣做。其他所有領域的成本都得到了嚴格控制。此外，還有與收購和管理層激勵計劃相關的成本。你可以這樣簡單地理解。

Where do we spend in terms of investments? We will continue investing in sales capabilities, particularly in emerging markets. We will continue to invest in marketing, both people and A&C, as we call it. And in terms of digital, there is going to be an acceleration. We are looking into SAP HANA as a major investment that is coming our way and that is both capital and running costs, but it's too early to talk about that. So hopefully, that provides you with some color around our total overhead costs.

我們在投資上都投入了哪些資源？我們將繼續投資銷售能力建設，尤其是在新興市場。我們將繼續投資於行銷，包括人員和我們稱之為「廣告與傳播」（A&C）的行銷活動。在數位化方面，我們將加速推進。我們正在考慮對 SAP HANA 進行重大投資，這既包括資本支出也包括營運成本，但現在談論這件事還為時過早。希望以上內容能讓您對我們的整體營運成本有所了解。

Yes. That's great. And then, Dirk, just coming back to the adjacent categories, the packaged croissants, the snack bars. I think you referred to it as being in a test and learn phase. And I'm curious, there's a lot going on right now with innovation, synergies and the assets. What sort of stands out to you thus far in terms of surprises or having a greater appreciation for these assets? What are you -- I guess, what are you learning from test and learn at this point?

是的，太好了。然後，Dirk，我們再回到鄰近的品類，例如包裝羊角麵包和能量棒。我想你之前提到過，它們目前處於測驗和學習階段。我很好奇，現在在創新、協同效應和現有資產方面還有很多工作要做。到目前為止，哪些方面讓你感到驚喜，或讓你對這些資產有了更深刻的體會？你——我想說的是，你目前從測驗和學習中學到了什麼？

Yes, I wouldn't say it's all test and learn. So it's a mixture of just reinforcing the businesses that we have, more launches from our own range, doing some geographical expansion, doing some distribution expansion. So it's a lot more than test and learn. If I start with snack bars, I think we are discovering the power of snack bars. That's why we highlighted it in the prepared remarks. We're doing particularly well with Clif and also with a brand like Grenade in the U.K. and in Europe, which is really growing very fast.

是的，我不會說一切都只是測驗和學習。這其中既包括鞏固現有業務，也包括推出更多自有品牌產品，以及進行地理擴張和通路拓展。所以，這遠不止是測驗和學習那麼簡單。就拿能量棒來說，我認為我們正在發掘能量棒的巨大潛力。這也是為什麼我們在準備的發言稿中重點強調了這一點。 Clif 和 Grenade 在英國和歐洲的表現都相當不錯，Grenade 這個品牌的發展速度非常快。

So first conclusion would be snack bars are going to be a real strength for us. There's a big opportunity in the rest of the world. If you look at the development of the snack bar market in the U.S., it's far ahead of the rest of the world. So we see a huge opportunity there in the years to come. And particularly in the Anglo-Saxon countries, we think that's going to happen first.

因此，第一個結論是，零食棒將成為我們的一大優勢。世界其他地區蘊藏著巨大的機會。如果你觀察美國零食棒市場的發展，你會發現它遠遠領先世界其他地區。所以我們認為未來幾年，美國零食棒市場將迎來巨大的發展機會。尤其是在盎格魯撒克遜國家，我們認為這種情況會率先出現。

As it relates to cakes and pastries, there is this segment, which is in-store bakery, Give & Go, that's not a test and learn anymore. That's now a $900 million business, but that has been very incremental to us. We've seen some very significant growth. It's a segment that is growing very fast, and we're taking share. So our expectation is that going forward, Give & Go will continue to see big growth because clients like Target or Walmart are moving from made-in-store towards freeze and thaw, which is what Give & Go is offering there.

就蛋糕和糕點而言，店內烘焙業務「Give & Go」已不再是試水階段，如今已發展成為一項價值9億美元的業務，但對我們來說，這部分增長非常緩慢。我們看到了顯著的成長，這是一個快速成長的細分市場，我們正在不斷擴大市場份額。因此，我們預計「Give & Go」未來將繼續保持高速成長，因為像Target或沃爾瑪這樣的客戶正在從店內製作轉向冷凍解凍模式，而這正是「Give & Go」所提供的服務。

So second conclusion, the In-Store Bakery segment is going to be very interesting for us going forward. And then the third one that is important for us is the expansion of our current brands into the cakes and pastries market. So we've launched Cakesters in the U.S., or we have launched Airy Cake in China under Oreo, both very big successes. Things that are clearly an indication that our brands have the potential to play in this cakes and pastries space, and it's a very nice addition and really extends the footprint and the consumers that we have.

第二個結論是，店內烘焙業務對我們來說未來發展前景非常廣闊。第三個重要的結論是，我們將現有品牌拓展到蛋糕和糕點市場。我們在美國推出了 Cakesters，在中國推出了 Oreo 旗下的 Airy Cake，這兩個品牌都取得了巨大的成功。這清楚地表明，我們的品牌在蛋糕和糕點領域擁有巨大的潛力，這不僅是一個很好的補充，也真正擴大了我們的業務範圍和消費者群體。

And then lastly, there is Chipita, which is the packaged croissants. We're doing test and learns in 3 markets at the moment around the world. Not all the results are in, but we've seen, for instance, in a country like Brazil that there is a real interest. The segment is really not that established, but our test and learn was very positive, and we are now gearing up for a launch in the country. I'm expecting in the other countries that we are doing some tests that we will get similar results because if you think about it, Give & Go was already very successful in places like Mexico or in the Middle East.

最後，還有Chipita，也就是包裝好的可頌。目前我們在全球三個市場進行測試和學習。雖然結果尚未完全出爐，但例如在巴西，我們已經看到消費者對這款產品表現出濃厚的興趣。儘管這個細分市場尚未完全成熟，但我們的測試和學習結果非常積極，現在我們正準備在巴西正式推出。我預計在其他一些正在進行測試的國家，我們也會取得類似的成果，因為想想看，Give & Go在墨西哥和中東等地已經取得了巨大的成功。

So it's a real sort of emerging market proposition, meal replacement at a very affordable price, reasonable quantity of product. So I think there's going to be a real opportunity to make that a worldwide business for us. So those would be the 4 big ones at the moment from the adjacencies. So far, so very good, I would say. We'll keep on informing you. But everything is going in line or, in fact, well above plan in this area.

所以這確實是新興市場的產品，價格非常實惠，份量也適中，是代餐食品。我認為我們有機會將其發展成為一項全球性業務。以上就是目前週邊領域最重要的四個面向。到目前為止，一切都進展順利。我們會持續向您報告最新情況。但就這個領域而言，一切都按計畫進行，甚至遠遠超出預期。

I think with that, we -- okay. Thank you. And with that, we've come to the end of our call. We feel good about the quarter. We feel good about the next quarter and about next year. Thank you for your interest, and see you next quarter.

我想，到此為止，我們——好的。謝謝。我們的電話會議到此結束。我們對本季、下一季以及明年都充滿信心。感謝您的關注，我們下個季度再見。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。