億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International Fourth Quarter 2023 and Year-end Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，歡迎參加億滋國際 2023 年第四季和年終收益電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括億滋管理層的演講和問答環節。 （操作員說明）

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將電話轉給億滋投資者關係高級副總裁 Shep Dunlap 先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our Chairman and CEO; and Luca Zaramella, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides, which are available on our website.

下午好，感謝您加入我們。今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長 Dirk Van de Put；和我們的財務長盧卡·扎拉梅拉 (Luca Zaramella)。今天早些時候，我們發送了新聞稿和簡報幻燈片，這些內容可以在我們的網站上找到。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K, Q and 8-K filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將對公司的績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於我們今天看待事物的方式。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱我們的 10-K、Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素，以了解有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳細資訊。

As we discuss our results today, unless noted as reported, we'll be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust for certain items included in our GAAP results. In addition, we provide our year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, unless otherwise noted. You can find the comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

當我們今天討論我們的績效時，除非另有說明，否則我們將參考我們的非公認會計準則財務指標，這些指標針對我們的公認會計準則績效中包含的某些項目進行了調整。此外，除非另有說明，我們以固定匯率為基礎提供年成長。您可以在我們的收益報告和投影片簡報的後面找到可比較的 GAAP 指標以及 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調整表。

Today, Dirk will provide a business and strategy update, followed by a review of our financial results and outlook by Luca. We will close with Q&A.

今天，德克將提供業務和策略更新，隨後盧卡將回顧我們的財務表現和前景。我們將以問答結束。

I'll now turn the call over to Dirk.

我現在將電話轉給德克。

Thanks, Shep, and thanks to everyone for joining the call today. I will start on Slide 4.

謝謝謝普，也謝謝大家今天加入電話會議。我將從幻燈片 4 開始。

I'm pleased to share that we delivered our best year ever in 2023 with robust top line growth, continued share improvements, record profit dollar growth and strong total shareholder return.

我很高興地告訴大家，我們在 2023 年實現了有史以來最好的一年，收入強勁增長，股價持續改善，利潤增長創紀錄，股東總回報強勁。

Our double-digit top line performance was driven by strong pricing execution and positive volume/mix growth. We also delivered continued share improvements as consumers across the globe remain very engaged with our iconic snacking brands. We set another record for gross profit dollar growth achieving $2.2 billion through ongoing cost discipline and sound pricing to offset cost inflation as well as volume leverage.

我們兩位數的營收業績是由強勁的定價執行和積極的銷售/組合成長所推動的。由於全球消費者仍然對我們的標誌性零食品牌非常感興趣，我們的份額也不斷提高。透過持續的成本控制和合理的定價以抵消成本通膨以及銷售槓桿，我們創下了毛利美元增長的另一個紀錄，達到 22 億美元。

We continued our track record of strong free cash flow, generating $3.6 billion. To accelerate our strategy of global snacking leadership, we continue to invest significantly in our brands and capabilities, driving multiyear growth on both the top and bottom lines.

我們繼續保持強勁的自由現金流記錄，創造了 36 億美元的收入。為了加速我們成為全球零食領導者的策略，我們繼續對我們的品牌和能力進行大量投資，推動收入和利潤的多年成長。

I'm especially proud of our record financial results as well as returning nearly $4 billion in capital to shareholders. These results deepen our confidence that the strength of our brands, our proven strategy, our continued and increasing investments and especially our great people, position us well to achieve our long-term financial targets in 2024 and beyond.

我對我們創紀錄的財務表現以及向股東返還近 40 億美元的資本感到特別自豪。這些結果加深了我們的信心，我們的品牌實力、行之有效的策略、持續和不斷增加的投資，尤其是我們優秀的員工，使我們能夠很好地實現 2024 年及以後的長期財務目標。

Turning to Slide 5. You can see that 2023 was a strong year on both the top and bottom lines with substantial reinvestment to drive continued growth in the year ahead.

轉向投影片 5。您可以看到 2023 年在營收和利潤方面都是強勁的一年，大量再投資將推動未來一年的持續成長。

Organic net revenue grew 14.7% or $4.6 billion versus prior year. Our continuing solid performance in volume/mix demonstrates that consumers continue to prioritize our brands and categories.

有機淨收入比上年增長 14.7%，即 46 億美元。我們在銷售/產品組合方面持續穩定的表現顯示消費者繼續優先考慮我們的品牌和品類。

We also delivered record adjusted gross profit dollar growth of $2.2 billion, up 18.8%, significantly lapping the last several years. We're proud of our teams' continued focus and commitment, which enables us to continue investing in the business to drive further sustained growth.

我們也實現了創紀錄的調整後毛利成長，達到 22 億美元，成長 18.8%，大幅超越過去幾年。我們為團隊的持續關注和承諾感到自豪，這使我們能夠繼續投資業務以推動進一步的持續成長。

Accordingly, we increased A&C investments by more than 21%, helping to drive consumer and customer loyalty to both our iconic global brands and our local jewels, which represent the taste of the nation in their markets. These results translated into strong OI growth of nearly $1 billion, up more than 19% versus prior year.

因此，我們將 A&C 投資增加了 21% 以上，幫助提高消費者和客戶對我們標誌性全球品牌和本地珠寶的忠誠度，這些品牌在其市場上代表了該國的品味。這些結果轉化為 OI 強勁成長，接近 10 億美元，比上年增長超過 19%。

Adjusted EPS grew 19% on top of strong growth in the past several years.

調整後每股收益在過去幾年的強勁成長基礎上成長了 19%。

All told, we remain confident that our virtuous cycle of strong gross profit dollar growth, fueling local-first commercial execution and increasing investments in our strong brands, capabilities and talent, will enable us to continue delivering attractive sustainable growth.

總而言之，我們仍然相信，強勁的毛利成長、推動本地優先的商業執行以及增加對我們強大的品牌、能力和人才的投資的良性循環將使我們能夠繼續實現有吸引力的可持續成長。

I'm especially proud to share that we continue to outperform our peers in total shareholder return. As you can see on Slide 6, our 5-year TSR is nearly double the average of our peer group. Our 1-year return is particularly impressive, with Mondelez delivering double-digit growth while our peer average return has fallen into negative territory. We view these results as evidence that we have the right strategy, the right brands and their people to continue delivering long-term value for our stakeholders.

我特別自豪地告訴大家，我們在股東總回報方面繼續優於同業。正如您在幻燈片 6 中看到的，我們的 5 年 TSR 幾乎是同行平均值的兩倍。我們的一年回報率尤其令人印象深刻，億滋實現了兩位數的成長，而我們的同業平均回報率已跌入負值。我們認為這些結果證明我們擁有正確的策略、正確的品牌及其員工，可以繼續為我們的利害關係人提供長期價值。

Switching to Slide 7. Our performance in 2023 gives us confidence that we have not only the right growth strategy but also the right execution to deliver it. Here are just a few highlights of our strategy in action.

切換到投影片 7。我們 2023 年的業績讓我們充滿信心，我們不僅擁有正確的成長策略，而且還擁有正確的執行力來實現這項策略。以下是我們實施策略的一些亮點。

Our biggest global brands, OREO, Milka and Cadbury, achieved more than $10 billion in global net revenues. We continue accelerating our focus on our core categories for chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks because these categories offer attractive growth and profitability. We remain on track to deliver 90% of our revenue through these core categories.

我們最大的全球品牌奧利奧 (OREO)、米爾卡 (Milka) 和吉百利 (Cadbury) 的全球淨收入超過 100 億美元。我們持續加快對巧克力、餅乾和烘焙零食核心類別的關注，因為這些類別提供了有吸引力的成長和獲利能力。我們仍有望透過這些核心類別實現 90% 的收入。

We also continue to make strong progress in executing our growth strategy. Our U.S. supply chain has stabilized, and we have added more than 600,000 stores to our emerging market distribution channels. Additionally, we continue to advance our portfolio reshaping strategy. In 2023, we integrated Clif Bar and Ricolino. Now we are harnessing the power of these recent acquisitions to strengthen our presence in the global snack bar and the Mexican chocolate and candy segments. We also completed the sale of our developed market gum business for $1.4 billion, providing another important source of reinvestment to further advance our brands, talent and capabilities.

我們在執行成長策略方面也持續取得強勁進展。我們的美國供應鏈已經穩定，我們的新興市場分銷管道增加了超過 600,000 家商店。此外，我們持續推動投資組合重塑策略。 2023 年，我們整合了 Clif Bar 和 Ricolino。現在，我們正在利用最近收購的力量來加強我們在全球小吃店以及墨西哥巧克力和糖果領域的影響力。我們也以 14 億美元的價格完成了已開發市場口香糖業務的出售，為進一步提升我們的品牌、人才和能力提供了另一個重要的再投資來源。

On Slide 8, along with our financial performance, I'm pleased to share that we made significant progress towards our sustainability goals and targets in 2023. First, we continue to advance our leadership in more sustainably sourced critical ingredients. About 80% of the cocoa volume used in our chocolate brand is sourced through Cocoa Life, our signature cocoa sourcing program, that works to lift up the people and restore landscapes where cocoa grows.

在投影片8 上，除了我們的財務表現外，我很高興與大家分享，我們在實現2023 年永續發展目標和目標方面取得了重大進展。首先，我們繼續提升我們在更永續地採購關鍵成分方面的領導地位。我們巧克力品牌中使用的可可量中約 80% 是透過 Cocoa Life 採購的，這是我們標誌性的可可採購計劃，致力於提升人們的生活水平並恢復可可種植地的景觀。

We also made continued progress in helping to combat climate change. We achieved an important milestone in 2023 by submitting our road map to achieve net zero by 2050 to the Science-Based Targets initiative. Additionally, we continued advancing our light and right packaging strategy. More than 97% of our packaging now is designed to be recycled.

我們在幫助應對氣候變遷方面也不斷取得進展。 2023 年，我們向基於科學的目標倡議提交了到 2050 年實現淨零排放的路線圖，實現了一個重要的里程碑。此外，我們繼續推進我們的輕型和正確的包裝策略。現在，我們 97% 以上的包裝都是可回收的。

We also continue investing in ways to empower consumers to make more mindful snacking choices that fit into their healthy active lifestyles. More than 55% of our snacks revenue comes from Mindful Portion snacks, that is, snacks that are packaged in individually wrapped Mindful Portion serving sizes or with clear Mindful Portion recommendations on pack. These are just a few highlights of our continuing progress towards building a more sustainable snacking company.

我們也繼續投資於各種方法，使消費者能夠做出更謹慎的零食選擇，以適應他們健康的積極生活方式。我們超過 55% 的零食收入來自 Mindful Portion 零食，即採用單獨包裝的 Mindful Portion 份量或在包裝上帶有明確 Mindful Portion 建議的零食。這些只是我們在建立更具可持續性的零食公司方面不斷取得進展的幾個亮點。

We continue to believe that helping to drive positive change at scale is an integral part of value creation with positive returns for our sellers. We encourage you to watch our annual Snacking Made Right Report, which will be published in April, to view our full year sustainability data.

我們仍然相信，幫助大規模推動積極變革是價值創造的一個組成部分，為我們的賣家帶來正面回報。我們鼓勵您觀看我們將於四月發布的年度零食正確報告，以查看我們全年的可持續發展數據。

Turning to Slide 9. You can see that like many companies, we continue to navigate through a dynamic operating environment. We are closely tracking and planning around a number of near-term themes, including continuing inflation, shifting consumer habits, geopolitical challenges, rising cocoa prices, just to name a few. We are well positioned to address these challenges, and we remain confident that we can deliver a non-algorithm year. Our confidence is rooted in our conviction that we have the right strategy, the right execution and the right people as well as very strong, widely loved brands.

轉向幻燈片 9。您可以看到，像許多公司一樣，我們繼續在動態的營運環境中航行。我們正在圍繞一些近期主題密切追蹤和規劃，包括持續的通貨膨脹、消費者習慣的轉變、地緣政治挑戰、可可價格上漲等等。我們有能力應對這些挑戰，我們仍然有信心實現非演算法的一年。我們的信心植根於我們的信念，即我們擁有正確的策略、正確的執行、正確的人才以及非常強大、廣受喜愛的品牌。

We continue to see momentum in the majority of our key emerging markets. Our categories remain resilient and our solid volume/mix performance demonstrates that consumers continue to prioritize our iconic snacking brands. To continue accelerating this momentum, we are continuing to increase our investments significantly in our brands and capabilities. We are pleased that our U.S. supply chain has substantially improved, and we continue to focus on expanding distribution opportunities in both developed and emerging markets. We're also making solid progress in our European pricing negotiations.

我們繼續看到大多數主要新興市場的發展勢頭。我們的品類保持彈性，穩定的銷售/組合表現顯示消費者繼續優先考慮我們的標誌性零食品牌。為了繼續加速這一勢頭，我們將繼續大幅增加對品牌和能力的投資。我們很高興我們的美國供應鏈得到了顯著改善，並且我們繼續專注於擴大已開發市場和新興市場的分銷機會。我們在歐洲定價談判方面也取得了紮實進展。

We expect to deliver robust EPS growth in both constant and real dollars in 2024. And overall, we remain confident that we have the right strategy to effectively navigate today's volatile environment while continuing to focus on long-term sustainable growth.

我們預計到2024 年，每股盈餘（以不變美元和實際美元計算）將實現強勁成長。總體而言，我們仍然相信，我們擁有正確的策略來有效應對當今動盪的環境，同時繼續專注於長期可持續增長。

In conclusion, I'm pleased to reiterate that 2023 was another record year. Our focus in portfolio reshaping strategy is working, and we are well positioned to continue driving attractive growth in 2024 and beyond. By continuing to double-down on our attractive core categories of chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks, investing in our widely loved brands, focusing on operational execution and cost discipline, and empowering our great people, I am confident that we can deliver strong performance for years to come.

最後，我很高興地重申 2023 年又是創紀錄的一年。我們對投資組合重塑策略的關注正在發揮作用，我們已做好充分準備，在 2024 年及以後繼續推動有吸引力的成長。透過持續加強發展我們有吸引力的巧克力、餅乾和烘焙零食等核心品類，投資於我們廣受喜愛的品牌，專注於營運執行和成本紀律，並賦予我們優秀的員工權力，我相信我們能夠為客戶帶來強勁的業績未來幾年。

With that, I'll turn it over to Luca to share additional insights on our financials.

接下來，我會將其轉交給盧卡，分享更多有關我們財務狀況的見解。

Thank you, Dirk, and good afternoon, everyone. Before I get into our financial results and the 2024 outlook, it is important to provide some context related to the developed market gum divestiture and its impact on our results.

謝謝你，德克，大家下午好。在介紹我們的財務表現和 2024 年前景之前，有必要提供一些與已開發市場口香糖剝離及其對我們業績的影響相關的背景資訊。

On Slide 11, you can see that the impact of the divestiture on revenue was around about $500 million; while on growth, 0.3 percentage points negative. EPS was impacted by minus $0.11. I'll give you more color as this relates to the outlook later in the call and how we plan to fully offset impact on income.

在投影片 11 上，您可以看到剝離對收入的影響約為 5 億美元；而成長方面則出現負0.3個百分點。 EPS 受到負 0.11 美元的影響。我將為您提供更多信息，因為這關係到電話會議稍後的前景以及我們計劃如何完全抵消對收入的影響。

Moving to Slide 12. In 2023, we delivered exceptional results, starting with double-digit revenue growth, with both volume and value contributing. As we keep saying, gross profit dollar is the most important P&L variable as it allows to reinvest and protect on our virtual cycle.

轉到投影片 12。2023 年，我們取得了出色的業績，首先是兩位數的收入成長，數量和價值均有所貢獻。正如我們一直說的，毛利是最重要的損益變量，因為它允許在我們的虛擬週期上進行再投資和保護。

Last year, GP dollars grew by $2.2 billion, allowing substantial reinvestments, strong earnings and robust cash flow generation. The strength of these results can be seen across all regions and categories.

去年，GP 美元成長了 22 億美元，實現了大量再投資、強勁的盈利和強勁的現金流生成。這些結果的優勢在所有地區和類別中都可見一斑。

Revenue growth was plus 14.7% in the year, with 1.3 points of growth coming from volume mix. For the quarter, growth was about 10% with a slight decline in volume mix.

全年營收成長 14.7%，其中 1.3 個百分點的成長來自銷量組合。本季成長率約 10%，但銷量略有下降。

Emerging markets grew by 20.4% for the year and 14.9% for the quarter, with trends coming from a substantial number of key countries, including Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Western Andean.

新興市場全年成長 20.4%，本季成長 14.9%，趨勢來自巴西、中國、印度、墨西哥和西安第斯山脈等許多主要國家。

Developed markets grew plus 11.1% for the year and plus 6.6% for the quarter, including robust growth from both the U.S. and Europe.

已開發市場全年成長 11.1%，本季成長 6.6%，其中美國及歐洲均強勁成長。

Moving to portfolio performance on Slide 13. Our chocolate and biscuits businesses both delivered double-digit growth for the year. Also, Gum & Candy continued to perform well with superior growth in emerging markets.

轉到幻燈片 13 上的投資組合表現。我們的巧克力和餅乾業務今年均實現了兩位數的成長。此外，口香糖和糖果持續表現良好，新興市場成長強勁。

Biscuits grew plus 11.9% for the year and plus 5.5% for the quarter. A large number of brands delivered strong growth for 2023, including OREO, Ritz, Chips Ahoy!, belVita, Tate's, Give & Go, 7Days, Kraft, and Club Social. Chocolate grew plus 14.5% for the year and plus 11.2% for the quarter with significant growth across both developed and emerging market. Volume/mix was up by 2.5% for the year and 2.4% for the quarter.

餅乾全年成長 11.9%，本季成長 5.5%。許多品牌在 2023 年實現了強勁成長，包括 OREO、Ritz、Chips Ahoy!、belVita、Tate's、Give & Go、7Days、Kraft 和 Club Social。巧克力全年成長 14.5%，本季成長 11.2%，已開發市場和新興市場均顯著成長。銷量/組合全年成長 2.5%，本季成長 2.4%。

Global brands like Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka and Toblerone, all delivered extraordinary growth while we also delivered strong growth with many of our local jewels, including Lacta, Ricolino, and Côte d'Or.

吉百利乳業 (Cadbury Dairy Milk)、Milka 和 Toblerone 等全球品牌都實現了非凡的成長，同時我們的許多本地品牌也實現了強勁增長，包括 Lacta、Ricolino 和 Câte d'Or。

Gum & Candy grew more than 28% for the year and 20% for the quarter. Key markets, including Brazil, Mexico, China and the Western Andean area, all performed well.

口香糖和糖果全年成長超過 28%，本季成長超過 20%。巴西、墨西哥、中國和西安地斯地區等主要市場都表現良好。

Let's review market share performance on Slide 14. We held or gained share in 65% of our revenue base with strong results in both chocolate and biscuits. Given the amount of pricing we took in the last couple of years, we see this as a strong accomplishment. And our brand investments, both from a quantity and quality standpoint, clearly played a role.

讓我們回顧一下幻燈片 14 上的市場份額表現。我們保持或增加了 65% 的收入基礎份額，在巧克力和餅乾領域均取得了強勁業績。考慮到我們過去幾年的定價量，我們認為這是一項巨大的成就。我們的品牌投資，無論從數量或品質的角度來看，都明顯發揮了作用。

Turning to regional performance on Slide 15. Europe grew plus 14.5% for the year and plus 11.6% for the quarter. Strong execution led to positive volume/mix for the year despite significant customer disruption in Q2. Profit in '23 was up plus 12.8% for the year and plus 1.6% for the quarter. Underlying profit in Europe continues to improve, but Q4 was negatively impacted by ForEx fluctuations on some cash deposits held in dollars that functions as a protection against currency volatility. Excluding these headwinds, EBIT in Q4 was up nicely despite the significant increase in A&C.

轉向幻燈片 15 上的區域表現。歐洲全年成長 14.5%，本季成長 11.6%。儘管第二季度客戶受到嚴重干擾，但強勁的執行力導致今年的銷售/組合呈正增長。 23 年獲利成長 12.8%，季增 1.6%。歐洲的基礎利潤持續改善，但第四季受到一些以美元形式持有的現金存款外匯波動的負面影響，這些現金存款起到了抵禦貨幣波動的作用。排除這些不利因素，儘管 A&C 業務大幅成長，但第四季的息稅前利潤仍大幅成長。

North America grew plus 9.5% for the full year, while Q4 grew plus 1.9% against an exceptionally strong compare of almost 20% in 2022. Full year growth was driven by higher pricing, broad-based strength across brands and channels and solid volume/mix. In Q4, volume declined as a result of a softening U.S. biscuit category, tight inventory management in advance of Q1 pricing and declines in Give & Go increased. Give & Go was impacted by our decision to release some of the holiday's gingerbread kits, being low profit. We continue to be very happy with Give & Go overall.

北美全年增長 9.5%，而第四季度增長 1.9%，而 2022 年增長近 20%，異常強勁。全年增長是由更高的定價、跨品牌和渠道的廣泛實力以及穩定的銷量推動的混合。第四季度，由於美國餅乾類別疲軟、第一季度定價前的庫存管理緊張以及 Give & Go 的跌幅加大，銷量有所下降。 Give & Go 受到我們決定發布一些節日薑餅套裝的影響，因為利潤較低。總體而言，我們仍然對 Give & Go 感到非常滿意。

Clif's results were driven by lower bar consumption and inventory depletion connected to retailers building inventory in Q3 to minimize potential disruption ahead of a system transition in early October. As a result, we made adjustments to inventory, driving a year-over-year shipment decline. We feel comfortable with current inventory levels, along with our programming and investments, to drive '24 growth.

Clif 的表現是由於金條消費量下降以及零售商在第三季度建立庫存以盡量減少十月初系統過渡前潛在的干擾而導致的庫存消耗所推動的。因此，我們對庫存進行了調整，導致出貨量年減。我們對目前的庫存水準以及我們的規劃和投資感到滿意，以推動 24 小時的成長。

Overall, we are confident regarding our prospects in '24 for North America, given our strong activation plans, KDP's expansion, growth channels and substantial investments in A&C. We're going to give you a better sense of these opportunities at CAGNY.

總體而言，鑑於我們強大的活化計畫、KDP 的擴張、成長管道以及對 A&C 的大量投資，我們對 24 年北美的前景充滿信心。我們將讓您更了解 CAGNY 的這些機會。

North America OI increased plus 22.7% for the year due to strong pricing and solid volume. For the quarter, OR increased by 9.5%.

由於強勁的定價和穩定的銷量，北美 OI 今年增長了 22.7%。本季度，OR 成長了 9.5%。

AMEA grew 11.7% for the year and 7.9% for the quarter. India grew strong double digits for the year-end quarter driven by both chocolate and biscuit. China grew high single digits for the year and quarter as well. Southeast Asia grew mid-single digits for the year, and Australia delivered strong results for both the year and the quarter.

AMEA 全年成長 11.7%，本季成長 7.9%。在巧克力和餅乾的推動下，印度在年末季度實現了兩位數的強勁成長。中國今年和季度也實現了高個位數成長。東南亞全年實現中個位數成長，澳洲全年及本季均取得強勁業績。

As it relates volume/mix performance in the region for Q4, there has been some pressure on Western consumer brands in the Middle East since the war began and we have not been immune from that with an impacted sales in the Middle East and part of Southeast Asia. We are supporting colleagues who have been impacted in different ways around the world as well as working with NGOs partners to aid in humanitarian efforts in the regions.

由於它與該地區第四季度的銷售/組合表現相關，自戰爭開始以來，西方消費品牌在中東面臨一些壓力，我們也未能倖免，中東和東南部部分地區的銷售受到影響亞洲。我們支持世界各地受到不同方式影響的同事，並與非政府組織合作夥伴合作，為這些地區的人道工作提供援助。

While volatile and difficult to predict on a go-forward basis, we are tracking the situation and working with stakeholders and planning for these dynamics in our 2024 outlook. AMEA increased OI by 14.5% for the year and 18.5% for the quarter, continuing the strong track record of annual top and bottom line growth.

雖然未來波動較大且難以預測，但我們正在追蹤情況並與利害關係人合作，並在 2024 年展望中針對這些動態進行規劃。 AMEA 全年的 OI 成長了 14.5%，本季的 OI 成長了 18.5%，延續了年度營收和利潤成長的強勁記錄。

Latin America grew 34.8% for the year and 28.6% for the quarter with strong volume/mix growth and strong price execution. Ex Argentina, growth for LA was plus 18.1% for the year and 9.2% for the quarter, justifying the good work done by our teams beyond price management in Argentina.

拉丁美洲地區全年成長 34.8%，本季成長 28.6%，銷售/組合成長強勁，價格執行強勁。除阿根廷外，洛杉磯全年增長率為 18.1%，本季增長率為 9.2%，證明了我們團隊在阿根廷價格管理之外所做的出色工作。

Latin America delivered another strong year of profitability. OI grew plus 48.5% for the year and more than 49% for the quarter. Strong volume/mix, pricing and continuation of Gum & Candy momentum drove these results.

拉丁美洲又迎來了獲利強勁的一年。 OI 全年成長 48.5%，本季成長超過 49%。強勁的銷售/組合、定價和口香糖和糖果勢頭的持續推動了這些結果。

Turning to Page 16. For the year, we delivered strong double-digit OI dollar growth driven by a record-high increase in gross profit of nearly $2.2 billion. This growth has enabled strong levels of reinvestment behind brands and capabilities for 2024 and beyond. In Q4, we also saw strong double-digit OI and gross profit dollar growth of more than $500 million driven by topline strength and ongoing cost discipline. Other was impacted by the ForEx dynamics and fund protection in U.S. dollar that I discussed about Europe.

翻到第 16 頁。今年，在近 22 億美元的創紀錄高成長的推動下，我們的 OI 美元實現了強勁的兩位數成長。這種成長使得 2024 年及以後的品牌和能力背後的再投資水準強勁。在第四季度，我們還看到了強勁的兩位數 OI 和毛利美元成長超過 5 億美元，這得益於營收實力和持續的成本控制。其他受到我討論過的歐洲外匯動態和美元基金保護的影響。

Next, EPS on Slide 17. Full year EPS grew plus 19% in constant currency. The vast majority of this growth was driven by operating gains. And despite currency headwinds, we grew adjusted EPS at reported ForEx by 14.3%. Adjusted EPS would be $3.30 per share, including $0.11 of contribution from beyond gum.

接下來是投影片 17 上的每股盈餘。以固定匯率計算，全年每股盈餘成長了 19%。這一成長的絕大部分是由營業收益所推動的。儘管存在貨幣不利因素，我們按外匯報告計算的調整後每股收益仍成長了 14.3%。調整後每股收益為每股 3.30 美元，其中包括 Beyond Gum 貢獻的 0.11 美元。

I'll talk more about our plans for '24, but we could aim at removing as much stranded cost as possible.

我將更多地討論我們 24 年的計劃，但我們的目標是盡可能消除滯留成本。

Turning to Slide 18. We delivered $3.6 billion of free cash flow for the full year, including the impact of more than $380 million related to cash taxes from the liquidation of our KDP stake. Our balance sheet remains quite strong as full year leverage ended at 2.6x.

轉向幻燈片 18。我們全年實現了 36 億美元的自由現金流，其中包括因清算 KDP 股份而與現金稅相關的超過 3.8 億美元的影響。我們的資產負債表仍然相當強勁，全年槓桿率為 2.6 倍。

Let me take a moment to discuss our outlook and some of our key planning assumptions on Slide 20. For the current year, we expect to deliver on our long-term algorithm for revenue, earnings and cash flow. We expect to be at the upper end of our 3% to 5% algo range for organic net revenue growth as pricing in certain markets with significant top line portfolio such as Europe is expected to be higher than historical levels. We expect free cash flow of $3.5 billion plus.

讓我花點時間在幻燈片 20 上討論我們的前景和一些關鍵規劃假設。今年，我們預計將實現收入、收益和現金流的長期演算法。我們預計有機淨收入成長將處於 3% 至 5% 演算法範圍的上限，因為歐洲等具有重要營收組合的某些市場的定價預計將高於歷史水準。我們預計自由現金流將超過 35 億美元。

In terms of the assumptions, for inflation, we expect a high single-digit increase for '24. This inflation is driven by significant increases in both cocoa and sugar as well as another uptick in labor costs. As Europe faces more inflation than any other market, we expect customer disruption during Q1 and potentially into Q2 associated with our annual price negotiation process. This process is happening earlier in some cases than last year. So in fact, it might be more pronounced in Q1 from top and margin lines. We also remain committed to substantial brand support in this region and all the others, similar to our stance over the last past several years.

就通膨假設而言，我們預期 24 年通膨率將出現高個位數成長。這種通貨膨脹是由可可和糖的大幅增加以及勞動成本的再次上升所推動的。由於歐洲面臨的通貨膨脹比其他任何市場都嚴重，我們預計第一季和第二季的客戶中斷可能與我們的年度價格談判流程相關。在某些情況下，這個過程比去年發生得更早。因此，事實上，從頂線和利潤線來看，第一季的情況可能更為明顯。我們也仍然致力於在該地區和所有其他地區提供大量的品牌支持，這與我們過去幾年的立場類似。

In terms of interest expenses, we expect approximately $325 million. We are expecting $0.03 of EPS from headwinds related to ForEx impact for the year.

就利息支出而言，我們預計約為 3.25 億美元。我們預計今年與外匯影響相關的不利因素將帶來每股收益 0.03 美元。

In terms of taxes, we expect an ETR in the mid-20s. Shared repurchases expectations are around $2 billion.

在稅收方面，我們預計 ETR 會在 20 多歲左右。共同回購預期約 20 億美元。

Turning to our EPS outlook on Page 21. With respect to adjusted EPS, we expect high single-digit growth off our reported base '23 of $3.30 per share, which includes the $0.11 of contribution from our divested developed gum business. We expect to eliminate nearly all of this $0.11 impact by removing stranded costs. In fact, we made good progress by already realizing $0.03 of stranded cost savings in late 2023.

轉向第21 頁的每股收益展望。關於調整後的每股收益，我們預計在23 年報告基數每股3.30 美元的基礎上實現高個位數增長，其中包括我們剝離的發達口香糖業務的0.11 美元貢獻。我們希望透過消除擱淺成本來消除幾乎所有 0.11 美元的影響。事實上，我們取得了良好進展，在 2023 年底已經實現了 0.03 美元的擱淺成本節省。

With that, let's open the line for questions.

接下來，讓我們打開提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Dirk, I was hoping we could get a bit of a state of the union on how you see the performance in key markets at this stage as we saw a bit more volume weakness in North America in the fourth quarter. And conversely, it still seems like there's strength in many of the other key markets. Trying to get a sense of how you see this playing out in '24 and whether a similar cadence across your markets might be the same or where it might be a bit different. And then I've just got a follow-up.

德克，我希望我們能夠了解您如何看待現階段關鍵市場的表現，因為我們看到第四季度北美的銷量進一步疲軟。相反，許多其他主要市場似乎仍然表現強勁。試著了解您如何看待這種情況在 24 年的發展，以及您所在市場的類似節奏是否相同，或者是否可能有所不同。然後我剛剛得到了一個後續行動。

Okay. Thank you, Andrew. Yes, I mean we see there's a very strong full year performance. We feel that there is portfolio strength, which is broad-based across our regions, across the categories, across the brands. The volume/mix growth is solid for the year, and we expect that to continue into next year. Our price execution has been very good this year across the business. Share performance is good. North America, we recovered. AMEA, we've been gaining share. Europe, we had some disruption effect during the year, but we started to recuperate strongly at the end of the year.

好的。謝謝你，安德魯。是的，我的意思是我們看到全年表現非常強大。我們認為，我們的產品組合實力廣泛，跨地區、跨品類、跨品牌。今年銷售/產品組合成長穩健，我們預計這種情況將持續到明年。今年我們整個業務的價格執行情況非常好。股價表現良好。北美，我們康復了。 AMEA，我們的份額一直在增加。歐洲，我們在這一年中受到了一些破壞影響，但我們在年底開始強勁復甦。

The strength in emerging markets continues broadly, and I can comment a little bit on where there are some short-term issues. And then we've got some very strong gross profit growth, $2.2 billion for the year, which has allowed us to reinvest quite significantly in the business. And so the acquisitions are doing well. EPS growth adjusted 19%; real, 14%; strong cash flow. So we feel good as we enter 2024. We have some more pricing coming in, but in North America that's already agreed. In Europe, we're in line with where we were last year, and the majority is already agreed. We are planning to continue with strong investments in our brands, with strong activations. The acquisitions, we continue to play a big role for us.

新興市場繼續普遍走強，我可以對一些短期問題發表一些評論。然後我們的毛利成長非常強勁，全年達到 22 億美元，這使我們能夠對業務進行相當大的再投資。因此收購進展順利。調整後每股收益成長 19%；真實，14%；現金流強勁。因此，當我們進入 2024 年時，我們感覺很好。我們有更多的定價，但在北美，這已經達成協議。在歐洲，我們的情況與去年一致，大多數人已經同意。我們計劃繼續對我們的品牌進行大力投資，並進行強有力的激活。這些收購繼續對我們發揮重要作用。

And maybe another point to mention is that we have the distribution runway of adding distribution for our brands around the world. So we feel it was a very strong '23, and we feel good entering '24. Now that doesn't mean that there are no particular issues that are on our mind. So the first one would certainly be the cocoa prices and our need to price as needed. We are well covered for the year but we need to, mainly in Europe, get those prices agreed. Consumer, while the consumer is feeling better and more positive, short term, we see that elasticity is still at or below historical norms. But there is some uptick in consumer elasticity in some spots around the world. It is to be expected that we will have customer disruption in the beginning of the year in Europe. The annual negotiations are in progress. Like I said, we are in line with where we were last year and the majority is agreed, but we still have some to go.

也許值得一提的另一點是，我們擁有在全球範圍內為我們的品牌增加分銷的分銷管道。所以我們覺得這是一個非常強勁的 23 年，進入 24 年我們感覺很好。但這並不意味著我們沒有考慮任何具體問題。因此，第一個肯定是可可價格以及我們需要根據需要定價。我們今年的情況很好，但我們需要（主要是在歐洲）就這些價格達成一致。消費者方面，雖然消費者感覺更好、更積極，但短期內我們看到彈性仍處於或低於歷史正常水平。但世界上一些地區的消費者彈性上升。預計今年年初我們在歐洲的客戶將會受到干擾。年度談判正在進行中。就像我說的，我們與去年的情況一致，大多數人都同意，但我們仍有一些工作要做。

And then maybe a few words on some of the effects on the volume in Q4, which we don't think will continue in Q1 in certain instances. So there is some tensions in the Middle East, and that has some effect on Western brands, and we have some of those Western brands. We expect that to continue in Q1 and Q2, but gradually, over the year, that will fade away. And that is the main reason why AMEA is not as strong in volume/mix, as you would expect. And then North America, Luca said it in the comments, in particular in the U.S., because of very specific one-off reasons, stopping a part of the range of Give & Go, the systems change in Clif, we expect to return to good volume/mix growth in North America in the beginning of next year.

然後可能會談談對第四季度銷售的一些影響，我們認為在某些情況下這種影響不會在第一季繼續下去。因此，中東存在一些緊張局勢，這對西方品牌產生了一些影響，而我們也有一些西方品牌。我們預計這種情況將在第一季和第二季持續，但在一年中，這種情況將逐漸消失。這就是 AMEA 的銷售/組合不如您預期的主要原因。然後是北美，盧卡在評論中表示，特別是在美國，由於非常具體的一次性原因，停止了部分 Give & Go 範圍，Clif 的系統發生了變化，我們預計會恢復良好明年初北美的銷量/產品組合成長。

All these items that I'm talking about are included in our full year outlook. And so we believe at this stage, particularly since we have to see how the negotiations go in Europe, that we should guide towards our own algo results for '24, probably more towards the higher side. But we are going to continue with all the things I said, and we'll see how the negotiations go in Europe. That's probably the main question mark that we have at this stage.

我所說的所有這些項目都包含在我們的全年展望中。因此，我們認為，在現階段，特別是因為我們必須了解歐洲的談判進展情況，我們應該引導我們自己的 24 年演算法結果，可能更偏向更高的方向。但我們將繼續執行我所說的所有事情，我們將看看歐洲的談判進展如何。這可能是我們現階段面臨的主要問號。

Great. And a quick follow-up for Luca and some of this you covered a little bit, Dirk, but I think there was Street expectation for organic sales growth for '24 to maybe be a little bit above the 3% to 5% long-term algorithm just given the pricing that you're taking. So maybe, Luca, you could walk us briefly through some of the key puts and takes to keep in mind as we think about the sales growth guidance for the year and maybe the phasing aspect of it.

偉大的。盧卡（Luca）的快速跟進以及德克（Dirk）您提到了其中的一些內容，但我認為華爾街預計 24 年的有機銷售增長可能會略高於 3％ 至 5％ 的長期增長算法剛剛給出了您所採取的定價。因此，盧卡，也許您可以向我們簡要介紹一下在我們考慮今年的銷售成長指引以及可能的分階段方面時需要牢記的一些關鍵觀點。

Thank you, Andrew. I would start by saying that guidance for '24, in our mind, is solid, particularly as we look at what drove '23 and the continuation of that momentum into '24. And so we can, I believe, count on resiliencies of our categories. We're happy, as I said in the prepared remarks, on our share performance. I think you will see momentum in our share, particularly in the first half. And that is related to the unprecedented A&C investment that we put forward. There are still material distribution opportunities that will help us model through some of the challenges that we discussed in the prepared remarks. And finally, the acquisitions, I think, will continue to be accretive for us, both in terms of top line and bottom line.

謝謝你，安德魯。首先我要說的是，在我們看來，24 年的指導是可靠的，特別是當我們審視 23 年的推動因素以及將這種勢頭延續到 24 年時。因此，我相信，我們可以依靠我們類別的彈性。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們對我們的股票表現感到高興。我認為您會看到我們份額的勢頭，特別是在上半年。這與我們提出的史無前例的空調投資有關。仍然存在材料分發機會，這將幫助我們模擬我們在準備好的發言中討論的一些挑戰。最後，我認為，這些收購將繼續為我們帶來營收和利潤的增值。

Composing the revenue guidance, pricing is clearly a key component of this plan. Its contribution will be a little bit less than we have seen in '23, but it is higher than an average year. And particularly, as we price away cocoa, chocolate will contribute to most of the pricing in '24. Pricing, as we mentioned, presents a couple of challenges. One is potential customer disruption in Europe. We have planned for it. Part of it is also in the base of '23. But while I feel positive, and Dirk said more than half of the price is secured at this point, we cannot really say what is going to happen. And particularly, as we look into Europe, clearly, we don't control customer disruption. Having said that, I think it is important to realize that our product is strong and that they drive significant traffic for retailers. So couple that with the fact that prices is common to market and many competitors will have to price, I think we feel quite positive at this point in time, quite frankly.

在製定收入指導時，定價顯然是該計劃的關鍵組成部分。它的貢獻將比我們在 23 年看到的要少一些，但高於平均水平。特別是，當我們對可可進行定價時，巧克力將在 24 年佔據大部分定價。正如我們所提到的，定價帶來了一些挑戰。一是歐洲潛在的客戶中斷。我們已經計劃好了。其中一部分也在'23的基礎上。不過，雖然我感覺很積極，而且德克表示，目前一半以上的價格已經確定，但我們不能真正預測會發生什麼。特別是，當我們研究歐洲時，很明顯，我們無法控制客戶中斷。話雖如此，我認為重要的是要認識到我們的產品很強大，並且它們為零售商帶來了巨大的流量。因此，考慮到價格在市場上是常見的，並且許多競爭對手必須定價，坦白說，我認為我們目前感到非常積極。

The second one is elasticity for which I feel better because competitors, as I said, will have to price, too, but also because our brands are unique, and we have been investing quite a bit. We expect for the year volume to be mildly positive with a good contribution actually when we exclude the customer disruption. So at this point in time, given we don't control the level to which customer disruption will affect the plan, we wanted to be a little bit on the cautious side. And look, reality is if we push this through and we are successful, most likely, there will be a revenue upside. And so as I said, we feel good.

第二個是彈性，我對此感覺更好，因為正如我所說，競爭對手也必須定價，但也因為我們的品牌是獨一無二的，而且我們一直在進行大量投資。我們預計，當我們排除客戶幹擾時，今年的銷售量將略有成長，並且實際上會做出良好的貢獻。因此，在這個時候，鑑於我們無法控制客戶中斷對計畫的影響程度，我們希望保持謹慎一點。看，現實是，如果我們推動這項計劃並且成功，那麼收入很可能會增加。正如我所說，我們感覺很好。

Importantly, I want to say North America, we have very good plans as we go into 2024. And I think the lineup of all these plans, plus the continuation of the momentum in the acquired platforms, is good. I want to say Latin America is, in our case, continues to be good. AMEA, despite some of the challenges, has a lot of momentum in India and China that will continue. And finally, I think if you look at Europe, excluding customer disruption, the underlying business and the categories are doing well. So I believe the year will play out well for us, depending, obviously, on the extent of customer disruption.

重要的是，我想說北美，進入 2024 年我們有非常好的計劃。我認為所有這些計劃的陣容，加上所收購平台的勢頭的延續，都很好。我想說，就我們而言，拉丁美洲仍然表現良好。儘管存在一些挑戰，AMEA 在印度和中國仍有很大的發展勢頭，並將持續下去。最後，我認為如果你看看歐洲，排除客戶幹擾，基礎業務和類別都表現良好。因此，我相信這一年對我們來說將會表現良好，這顯然取決於客戶中斷的程度。

Our next question comes from Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

I just wanted to clarify a little bit about the EPS guidance. So it's on algo off a $3.30 base, but it's actually above algo if we think about it on a like-for-like basis versus the $3.19, right, if you exclude gum from both 2023 and 2024. And please correct me, if that's not accurate. I'm just curious what would necessarily -- what gives you the confidence it will be a little bit above algo just on that like-for-like basis and maybe how much of that underlying is sort of the elimination of some stranded costs as you think about it? That might just give a little bit more of a boost of the year than we might typically have.

我只是想澄清一下 EPS 指導。因此，它是基於3.30 美元的演算法得出的，但如果我們在同等基礎上考慮它與3.19 美元的情況相比，它實際上高於演算法，對吧，如果你將2023 年和2024 年的口香糖排除在外。請糾正我，如果這是不準確。我只是好奇什麼是必要的——是什麼讓你有信心它會比演算法稍微高一點，只是在類似的基礎上，也許有多少基礎是消除一些擱淺成本，因為你想一想嗎？這可能會為今年帶來比我們通常情況更多的推動力。

Yes. Thank you for the question, Ken. We wanted to make sure it was clear that we are trying to eliminate all the stranded costs. And so we really wanted to guide high single-digit cost, the higher base. The confidence comes from the fact that, as I said, we're going to have, excluding the customer disruption, good volume momentum into the business, and that provides leverage. We will continue pricing in a very disciplined manner, and that will offset the material inflation that we see. Clearly, we will continue with cost discipline and productivity. And the fact that we will eliminate 70%, 80% of the stranded cost into '24 allows us to guide to high single digit off a higher base. In all this algo, we are not going to have, I have to say, 20% A&C increase another year, but it will be most likely high single digit or double digits. So we will continue investing across all the regions, across all the brands. And so we feel good about that.

是的。謝謝你的提問，肯。我們希望確保我們正在努力消除所有滯留成本。因此，我們確實希望引導高個位數的成本，也就是更高的基數。信心來自於這樣一個事實，正如我所說，排除客戶幹擾，我們將擁有良好的業務量動力，這提供了槓桿作用。我們將繼續以非常嚴格的方式定價，這將抵消我們看到的物質通膨。顯然，我們將繼續遵守成本紀律和提高生產力。事實上，我們將在 24 年消除 70%、80% 的滯留成本，這使我們能夠在更高的基礎上實現高個位數。在所有這些演算法中，我必須說，我們不會再有 20% 的 A&C 成長，但很可能會是高個位數或兩位數。因此，我們將繼續在所有地區、所有品牌進行投資。所以我們對此感覺良好。

Remember, finally, that through the integration of Ricolino, there will be synergies coming to fruition. We are literally going live with SAP in a few days. And hopefully, that will unlock both revenue and cost synergies for 2024.

最後請記住，透過 Ricolino 的整合，將會產生協同效應。幾天後我們就將正式啟用 SAP。希望這將在 2024 年釋放收入和成本協同效應。

And then a quick follow-up. You mentioned disruption a little bit more in 1Q this year. With the understanding it's quite early, is there any way we can get a little bit more of a quantitative sense just to how to think about some of the impact potentially on the top and bottom line in the quarter? I realize, like I said, it's impossible to kind of completely forecast it at the time but just any kind of magnitude at this point would be helpful as we think about our models perhaps.

然後快速跟進。您在今年第一季更多地提到了顛覆。現在了解還為時過早，有沒有什麼方法可以讓我們獲得更多的定量意識，以了解如何思考對本季營收和淨利潤的潛在影響？我意識到，就像我說的那樣，當時不可能完全預測它，但當我們考慮我們的模型時，此時任何類型的大小都可能會有所幫助。

Look, I think as you look at the Q1 revenue pacing, we're going to have a revenue, maybe a number that is a little bit below the full year algo. I think you're going to be hopefully happy with the numbers you see across 3 regions out of the 4. Europe is going to be more impacted in relative terms versus the impact that we have already in the base in '23, in Q2. And most likely volume/mix, excluding the customer disruption, is going to be a nice number and positive. I believe total volume/mix might be tilted to slightly negative because of the disruption. But I can't go any further than that. We are in the middle of negotiations and conversations with retailers and we have plans. We have a sense of what might happen. But time will tell exactly how we will land pricing in Europe.

聽著，我認為當你看到第一季的收入節奏時，我們的收入可能會略低於全年演算法。我認為您會對 4 個地區中的 3 個地區看到的數字感到滿意。相對而言，與我們在 23 年第二季度已經在基礎上產生的影響相比，歐洲將受到更大的影響。排除客戶幹擾後，最有可能的銷售/組合將是一個不錯的數字並且是正面的。我認為，由於中斷，總銷售/組合可能會稍微偏向負值。但我不能再進一步了。我們正在與零售商進行談判和對話，並且我們已經制定了計劃。我們知道可能會發生什麼。但時間會告訴我們我們將如何在歐洲進行定價。

Your next question comes from Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

I have a couple of questions actually. One is just getting back to the guidance. And I just want to tie in. It's $2 billion of share repurchase this year, but you also repurchased quite a bit of shares in the fourth quarter. So if we think about the impact that share repurchases or a lower share count would have on fiscal '24, it should be more than the roughly 2% that a $2 billion repo would suggest, right? Just simply because of the timing of your share repurchases were so late, it should drive the share count down a little bit more than we would normally see. I just want to make sure I'm thinking about that correctly.

實際上我有幾個問題。一是回到指導。我只是想配合一下。今年有 20 億美元的股票回購，但你們在第四季也回購了相當多的股票。因此，如果我們考慮股票回購或減少股票數量對 24 財年的影響，那麼它應該超過 20 億美元回購建議的大約 2%，對吧？僅僅因為您的股票回購時間太晚，它應該會導致股票數量比我們通常看到的減少一些。我只是想確保我的想法是正確的。

I think you're thinking about that correctly, yes.

我認為你的想法是正確的，是的。

Okay. All right. Because that's going to square to just how much we need to burden operating profit growth. And I think it's not going to be quite as high as it would have sort of looked. Okay.

好的。好的。因為這將與我們需要承擔的營業利潤成長負擔成正比。我認為它不會像看起來那麼高。好的。

And then the second question, just Luca, if you could talk a little bit about Argentina. It's been topical over this earnings season for companies operating there. We've seen a range of outcomes, I guess, or actions companies have taken. So if you could just kind of walk us through Argentina, does the devaluation at all have any effect on local operations? What's incorporated into the guidance? And also maybe if you can just touch on, is that what's driving the FX guidance to be so moderate? We fielded that question a bunch over the last few minutes.

然後是第二個問題，盧卡，你能談談阿根廷嗎？對於在那裡營運的公司來說，這個財報季一直是熱門話題。我想，我們已經看到了一系列的結果，或是公司已經採取的行動。那麼，如果您能帶我們了解阿根廷，貨幣貶值對當地營運是否有任何影響？指南包含哪些內容？也許您可以談談，這是否是導致外匯指引如此溫和的原因？在過去的幾分鐘裡，我們多次回答了這個問題。

So Argentina for us is around about a $600 million business. We are very happy the way the business has been managed over the years. We have a clear playbook. What matters in Argentina for us is not necessarily top line growth. It's not share. It is about protecting the cash that we have there. And Argentina has been consistently generating cash for us and we have been able also to take some cash out of the country. Some of the companies have talked about exposure on net monetary position. Our net monetary position is in control. It will go down over the course of '24 as we have a clear playbook. And by the way, we incent Argentina not like all the other business units. But we incent Argentina on net monetary position and free cash flow generation.

因此，阿根廷對我們來說是一項價值約 6 億美元的業務。我們對多年來的業務管理方式感到非常滿意。我們有一個清晰的劇本。對我們來說，阿根廷最重要的不一定是營收成長。這不是分享。這是為了保護我們擁有的現金。阿根廷一直在為我們創造現金，我們也能夠將一些現金帶出該國。一些公司談到了淨貨幣部位的風險敞口。我們的淨貨幣部位處於掌控之中。它將在 24 年期間下降，因為我們有一個明確的劇本。順便說一句，我們激勵阿根廷的方式與其他所有業務部門不同。但我們在淨貨幣部位和自由現金流生成方面激勵阿根廷。

There was a little bit of a spike in net monetary exposure in Q4. And that was as the old government put in place some price control mechanism. But as those have been released, the net monetary position in Q1 is going to be very manageable, and I don't expect any major impact due to that. It's also fair to say that we have full control of the operation. We are free to price at this point in time, and the team is fully committed to protecting as much as they can the size and the scale of Argentina. So I don't see any issues or whatsoever in terms of impairment.

第四季淨貨幣敞口略有上升。那是因為舊政府建立了一些價格管制機制。但隨著這些政策的發布，第一季的淨貨幣部位將非常可控，我預期不會因此產生任何重大影響。可以公平地說，我們完全控制了操作。目前我們可以自由定價，團隊完全致力於盡可能保護阿根廷的面積和規模。因此，我認為在減損方面沒有任何問題或任何問題。

Clearly, there has been material devaluation. The parallel market runs at rates that are even higher than the official one reported that are obviously already much higher than last year. And so we will have to cap most likely growth for Argentina going forward into 2024. Having said that, it becomes a moot point as we guide you to organic net revenue growth and ForEx impact. And so the two offset each other. And if you take the guidance we gave in terms of organic net revenue growth and the impact on revenue, which is around about 0.5 point of growth, that should do the trick in terms of your forecasting Mondelez in total.

顯然，貨幣已經出現實質貶值。平行市場的運行速度甚至比官方報告的還要高，顯然已經比去年高很多。因此，我們將不得不限制阿根廷在 2024 年最有可能的成長。話雖如此，但當我們引導您了解有機淨收入成長和外匯影響時，這將成為一個有爭議的問題。所以兩者互相抵消。如果您遵循我們在有機淨收入成長和對收入的影響方面給予的指導（大約成長 0.5 個百分點），那麼這應該可以滿足您對億滋國際的整體預測。

Next question comes from David Palmer with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Palmer。

A couple questions. On Europe and pricing, so often we talk about the retailer customer and the dynamic of getting through pricing there. I wonder, as you're taking pricing this year, is your pricing strategy to offset the dollar impact that you're going to see from cocoa? It would seem like that would be a pretty reasonable expectation for the players there given what's happening with cocoa, but maybe there's some timing issues for 2024 there to think about. And then how -- from what you've seen from the consumer there, is the price elasticity there much different than what you would see from what you see in your biscuit business in the U.S., for example?

有幾個問題。關於歐洲和定價，我們經常談論零售商客戶以及在那裡進行定價的動態。我想知道，當您今年進行定價時，您的定價策略是否可以抵消可可帶來的美元影響？考慮到可可的情況，這對那裡的玩家來說似乎是一個相當合理的期望，但也許 2024 年需要考慮一些時間問題。然後，從您從那裡的消費者那裡看到的情況來看，那裡的價格彈性與您在美國餅乾業務中看到的價格彈性有很大不同嗎？

Yes, your first assumption is correct in the sense that we are trying to offset the dollar impact of the inflation that we're seeing on our input costs, and we're not pricing for percentage margin but offsetting that dollar impact, which, yes, we believe is a reasonable position. I think this year, seeing the situation in Europe and the fact that the retailers are seeing probably some deflation in other areas of their business, it is a little bit of an explanation to explain that not only cocoa but also sugar or hazelnut are showing significant inflation, which is not the expectation. I think by now they understand that it has to happen in chocolate, so we have high hopes that we will be able to land that in a good way.

是的，您的第一個假設是正確的，因為我們正在努力抵消我們所看到的通貨膨脹對我們的投入成本的美元影響，並且我們不是按利潤率定價，而是抵消美元影響，是的，我們認為這是一個合理的立場。我認為今年，鑑於歐洲的情況以及零售商在其業務的其他領域可能出現通貨緊縮的事實，這可以解釋不僅可可而且糖或榛子都表現出顯著的下降通貨膨脹，這不是預期。我想現在他們已經明白這必須發生在巧克力上，所以我們對能夠以良好的方式實現這一目標抱有很高的希望。

As it relates to elasticity, I would say the elasticity in Europe has been very reasonable. We might maybe expect a little bit of an uptick as prices keep on going up for a third year in a row, particularly in chocolate. But there is very little or low down trading within the category because everybody will have to price. So it's a joint movement of all the brands. So we don't expect that there will be huge differences between different brands and no shifting of consumers. What we've seen in the past year is a strong price increase of 12% to 15% in Europe in chocolate with a very limited 0 to 0.5% effect on volume. And so that shows that the elasticity is very low. We think that it's driven because of strong brand loyalty.

就彈性而言，我想說歐洲的彈性非常合理。隨著價格連續第三年上漲，我們可能會預期價格會略有上漲，尤其是巧克力。但該類別內的交易很少或很低，因為每個人都必須定價。所以這是所有品牌的聯合行動。所以我們預期不同品牌之間不會有巨大差異，消費者也不會發生轉移。去年我們看到歐洲巧克力價格強勁上漲 12% 至 15%，但對銷售的影響非常有限，為 0 至 0.5%。由此可見，彈性非常低。我們認為這是由強大的品牌忠誠度所推動的。

The fact that chocolate has a very distinct taste profile and consumers tend to stick with their chocolate brand because they like the taste and people recognize the taste of their brand, so private label is very small. And people do not tend to switch brands very easy. We call it the taste of the nation. Every country has their favorite chocolate. And then on top of that, we will do significant investments, very strong activations. We've been driving seasonals very hard. In the next year, we will celebrate 200 years of Cadbury, which will be a major activation in the U.K. So all that combined makes us believe and we have proved in the past that the elasticity will be limited to our opinion in chocolate in Europe.

事實上，巧克力具有非常獨特的口味特徵，消費者傾向於堅持使用他們的巧克力品牌，因為他們喜歡這種味道並且人們認可他們品牌的味道，因此自有品牌非常小。人們往往不會輕易更換品牌。我們稱之為民族品味。每個國家都有他們最喜歡的巧克力。除此之外，我們將進行大量投資和非常強大的活化。我們一直在努力應對季節性變化。明年，我們將慶祝吉百利成立 200 週年，這將是英國的一項重大活動。因此，所有這些加在一起使我們相信，並且我們過去已經證明，歐洲巧克力的彈性將僅限於我們的看法。

And a quick follow-up. Distribution growth seems to be a key driver, a growth driver, for the company. I don't think I've heard you say how much of your organic sales growth will come from distribution expansion. But if you had to guess how many percentage points of that organic sales targets would come from that, what would you say?

並快速跟進。分銷成長似乎是公司的關鍵驅動力、成長驅動力。我想我沒有聽你說過你的有機銷售成長有多少將來自分銷擴張。但如果您必須猜測有機銷售目標的多少個百分點將來自於此，您會怎麼說？

Well, roughly, you can assume for the markets where we can drive significant numerical distribution, I'm talking about in China and India, but we are now also starting to drive very hard in places like Brazil, probably, in those markets, you can expect that about 50% of our organic growth is driven through distribution expansion. On a global basis, we're probably talking about 2% of our extra growth coming from this. The runway of this is still quite big to give you a few numbers. So since 2019, we've added 1.7 million stores in China, India and Brazil. But for instance, our biscuits are now in about 3 million of the potential 6 million stores in China or our gum business is only in 2 million of the 6 million potential stores.

嗯，粗略地說，你可以假設我們可以在中國和印度推動顯著的數字分佈，但我們現在也開始在巴西等地努力推動，可能在這些市場中，你預計我們約50% 的有機增長是透過分銷擴張所推動的。在全球範圍內，我們可能會談論 2% 的額外成長來自於此。這個跑道仍然很大，無法給你一些數字。自 2019 年以來，我們在中國、印度和巴西新增了 170 萬家門市。但舉例來說，我們的餅乾目前在中國潛在的 600 萬家商店中約有 300 萬家銷售，或者我們的口香糖業務僅在 600 萬家潛在商店中的 200 萬家銷售。

In India, we've added 180,000 stores in '23. We deployed 100,000 new visi-coolers. But it is over 900 -- sorry, 9 million retail outlets, we cover directly 2 million, and we have about 3 million that are indirect coverage, so within 5 million of the 9 million stores in India. And I can go on in different countries. So I gave you the percentages and what it means for us. And the other message here is that the run rate, the years that we can keep on doing this are quite significant going forward.

在印度，我們於 2023 年新增了 18 萬家商店。我們部署了 100,000 個新的 Visi-coolers。但它超過 900 家——抱歉，是 900 萬家零售店，我們直接覆蓋 200 萬家，還有大約 300 萬家間接覆蓋，所以印度 900 萬家商店中的 500 萬家以內。我可以在不同的國家繼續下去。所以我給了你百分比以及它對我們意味著什麼。這裡的另一個訊息是運行率，我們可以繼續這樣做的年限是非常重要的。

Our next question comes from Robert Moskow with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert Moskow 和 TD Cowen。

I actually had a follow-up on the distribution question. Are you taking extra steps to monitor distribution levels at distributors or even the retailers in light of volatility of consumption. There's been multinationals who have fallen into inventory deloading situations in LatAm. You're expanding distribution so well, I'm just wondering if you're also taking extra steps to monitor it at the same time.

我實際上對分配問題進行了跟進。鑑於消費波動，您是否採取額外措施來監控經銷商甚至零售商的分銷水準？一些跨國公司在拉丁美洲陷入了庫存卸貨的境地。您的分發範圍擴展得如此之好，我只是想知道您是否同時採取了額外的措施來監控它。

Yes. We are aware that the distribution expansion needs to be very well monitored. So what we're putting in place is a direct connection because we use mainly distributors to make this happen. It's a direct connection to their system, so we can read what they sell per store and what the sell-in is, how much the replenishment is. So we monitor that very carefully. We go slow in some of the cities where we're doing the expansion so that we make sure that we can see that setting up the whole distribution system is profitable and that it can be maintained. So we've had no surprises so far. I've done this many times in my career, and I've had surprises. But so far, things have gone quite smoothly. I think our teams around the world know what to do. They're on top of it. We usually accompany these distribution expansions with very heavy activation in the cities that we are doing this. So we feel pretty good that we have a very controlled way of doing it. And like I said, so far, we've had no surprises whatsoever, with this.

是的。我們知道，分銷擴張需要得到很好的監控。因此，我們正在實施的是直接連接，因為我們主要使用分銷商來實現這一目標。它與他們的系統直接連接，因此我們可以讀取他們每家商店的銷售情況以及銷售量和補貨量。所以我們非常仔細地監控這一點。我們在一些進行擴張的城市進展緩慢，以便確保我們能夠看到建立整個分銷系統是有利可圖的，並且可以維持下去。所以到目前為止我們還沒有感到意外。在我的職業生涯中，我已經做過很多次這樣的事情，並且給我帶來了驚喜。但到目前為止，事情進展得相當順利。我認為我們世界各地的團隊都知道該怎麼做。他們在上面。我們通常會在我們正在進行的城市中大力開展這些分銷擴張活動。因此，我們感覺非常好，因為我們有一種非常可控的方式來做這件事。就像我說的，到目前為止，我們對此沒有任何意外。

And a follow-up on that. In some of these markets, you've introduced more digitized tools to enable small retailers or distributors to order or reorder and also monitor the performance on promotions, I think. Has that improved your ability to keep track of distribution and monitor sales? Like, are the tools better than they were 10 years ago to monitor all this?

以及後續行動。我認為，在其中一些市場中，您引入了更多數位化工具，使小型零售商或分銷商能夠訂購或重新訂購，並監控促銷效果。這是否提高了您追蹤分銷和監控銷售的能力？例如，這些工具是否比 10 年前更好地監控這一切？

Yes. We are still in a relatively experimental phase with that. We are, for instance, mainly experimenting with this in Latin America, largely in channels that we have immediate big coverage. So as an example, I would say, bars in Brazil would be typically something that we don't cover directly or indirectly at the moment. But we have started to have a presence, and we are monitoring how that is going. I would say those tools help the retailer order directly and get our products in there. It helps us to understand how much the store sells. Yes, we can monitor promotions. As a tool to monitor how our distribution is evolving, it's probably complementary to the other system I was talking about, but we prefer at this stage to monitor that through our distributors. Because the way it works is they will order through this new app, and then we, through our normal distribution system, will deliver or we will use a third-party to do it. So that's usually the source of the monitoring of distribution, not necessarily the new app for us.

是的。我們仍處於相對實驗階段。例如，我們主要在拉丁美洲進行這種試驗，主要是在我們立即進行大覆蓋的管道中進行。舉個例子，我想說，巴西的酒吧通常是我們目前不直接或間接涵蓋的內容。但我們已經開始存在，我們正在監控進展。我想說這些工具可以幫助零售商直接訂購並將我們的產品放在那裡。它可以幫助我們了解商店的銷售量。是的，我們可以監控促銷活動。作為監控我們的分銷如何發展的工具，它可能是我所說的其他系統的補充，但我們現階段更喜歡透過我們的經銷商進行監控。因為它的工作方式是他們將透過這個新應用程式訂購，然後我們透過我們的正常分銷系統進行交付，或者我們將使用第三方來完成。因此，這通常是分發監控的來源，不一定是我們的新應用程式。

Our next question comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

Luca, I think based on the EPS guidance, combined with the $3.5-plus billion free cash flow guidance, towards the $3.5 billion, kind of ignoring the plus but focusing the $3.5 billion, I think it implies a 75% or lower free cash flow conversion. And I just wanted to kind of throw that past you and see if that's the message you intended to convey. If so, what might be some of the drags on that free cash flow conversion? Or if there's a higher level of free cash flow conversion we should anchor to as a target, maybe you could talk about that.

盧卡，我認為根據EPS 指導，結合35 億美元以上的自由現金流指導，朝著35 億美元的目標，有點忽略加號，但重點關注35 億美元，我認為這意味著75% 或更低的自由現金流轉換。我只是想把它拋給你，看看這是否是你想要傳達的訊息。如果是這樣，自由現金流轉換可能受到哪些因素的拖累？或者，如果我們應該將更高水準的自由現金流轉換作為目標，也許你可以談談這一點。

Thank you for the question, Steve. As we think about the free cash flow and net income conversion into free cash flow, it's important to realize that the dividend payout of the joint ventures that we have is not 100%. And so that is a little bit of a factor as you consider the conversion. The other one I would tell you is we're going to have a slight uptick in CapEx, particularly, as we need to invest in places like India. I mean you look at the volume over the last 5 years in India, it has been stellar, and we are very happy. But we are at a point where we need to put down a little bit more capacity. Same goes for Latin America and OREO. And obviously, we integrate platforms like Ricolino, et cetera. The other one that will come into play in terms of capital expenses for '24 is SAP HANA. And so I think that's another element you have to consider.

謝謝你的提問，史蒂夫。當我們考慮自由現金流和淨利潤轉換為自由現金流時，重要的是要認識到我們擁有的合資企業的股息支付率並不是 100%。因此，當您考慮轉換時，這只是一個因素。我要告訴你的另一件事是，我們的資本支出將略有上升，特別是因為我們需要投資印度等地。我的意思是，你看看過去 5 年印度的銷量，它非常出色，我們非常高興。但我們正處於需要削減更多產能的階段。拉丁美洲和奧利奧也是如此。顯然，我們整合了 Ricolino 等平台。另一項將在 24 世紀的資本支出方面發揮作用的是 SAP HANA。所以我認為這是你必須考慮的另一個因素。

I think, look, the number I would like you to focus on is what we deliver in '23, which net of the taxes we paid for coffee, is around about $4 billion. And so there might some onetime payment coming our way. And so we need to make sure that we have enough headroom. But we want to reassure you that in terms of free cash flow, we are very happy. We have a best-in-class, I believe, cash conversion cycle. We continue to be very disciplined in terms of lowering overdue across the board. And inventories are coming down, and so we feel good about the cash flow generation of the company.

我想，看，我希望你們關注的數字是我們在 23 年交付的數字，扣除我們為咖啡支付的稅款後，該數字約為 40 億美元。因此，我們可能會收到一些一次性付款。因此，我們需要確保有足夠的空間。但我們想向您保證，就自由現金流而言，我們非常高興。我相信，我們擁有一流的現金轉換週期。我們在全面降低逾期率方面仍然非常嚴格。庫存正在下降，因此我們對公司的現金流產生感到滿意。

Very good. And it sounds like you're going to talk a little bit more about this at CAGNY, but to the extent you can talk about it now, the prospects for volume recovery and organic growth acceleration in North America. I guess, how quickly do you think that is likely to manifest in '24? Is that going to be a slower build? Or do you think we should expect some results sooner as you leverage some of the commercial investments, it sounds like, you made in the fourth quarter?

非常好。聽起來您將在 CAGNY 上更多地談論這一點，但就您現在可以談論的程度而言，北美銷量恢復和有機增長加速的前景。我猜，您認為這可能會在 24 年顯現出來？這會是一個更慢的構建嗎？或者您認為我們應該更快地期待一些結果，因為您利用了一些商業投資，聽起來像是您在第四季度所做的？

Yes. I think you said it right at the end there. In the fourth quarter, if you think about it, on one hand, we had a good year, and we were coming with a price increase, which, by the way, has been agreed in the U.S. in the beginning of the year. So no need to push in volumes from our side. Then we had the Clif system integration changeover. And so we needed to bring our inventory down and manage it very tightly. And then we talked about the Give & Go holiday kits that we stopped selling because the margins were not interesting for us. So if I exclude those and then look at the rest of the business, the volume/mix performance in Q4 was, in fact, quite good. So we're expecting a good volume/mix performance right away in Q1 of next year. It is really a one-off situation in Q4. So we don't really necessarily feel like there is a slowdown in North America. It's not going to be massive volume growth, but it's going to be positive volume growth in the beginning of the year. So that's where we are. It's not going to be a slow buildup. We will continue where we are without the exceptionals that we had in Q4.

是的。我認為你在最後說得對。在第四季度，如果你想一想，一方面，我們度過了美好的一年，而且我們帶來了價格上漲，順便說一下，美國在年初就同意了這一點。因此，我們無需增加數量。然後我們進行了 Clif 系統整合轉換。因此，我們需要減少庫存並嚴格管理。然後我們談到了我們停止銷售的 Give & Go 度假套裝，因為我們對利潤不感興趣。因此，如果我排除這些，然後看看其餘業務，第四季度的銷售/組合表現實際上相當不錯。因此，我們預計明年第一季將出現良好的銷售/混合表現。這確實是第四季的一次性情況。因此，我們不一定認為北美經濟放緩。銷量不會大幅成長，但年初會出現正銷量成長。這就是我們現在的處境。這不會是一個緩慢的累積。我們將繼續維持現狀，不會出現第四季的例外情況。

Our last question comes from Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

我們的最後一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的亞歷克西婭·霍華德。

So two questions. First of all, on innovation. I'm just wondering if you can give us a quick status update on whether the pace of innovation is likely to pick up going forward. It feels like with the pandemic and the supply chain disruption, it's been very hard to do innovation over the last several years. Do you anticipate a pickup going forward? And then I have a follow-up.

那麼兩個問題。首先，關於創新。我只是想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關創新步伐是否可能加快的快速狀態更新。感覺由於大流行和供應鏈中斷，過去幾年很難進行創新。您預計未來會有提貨嗎？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. We are going through a bit of a change in the way we look at innovation. If you think about our business around the world, we have quite a rhythm of small innovation, new flavors, new sizes of packs as we do PPA and RGM. But that leads to hundreds of small projects, which do drive our business. But we are gradually eliminating probably close to half of those small projects because, in fact, over time, they don't have that much of an impact on the business. Since overall, our business is doing well, we can afford to do so, and we are shifting our focus to bigger innovation projects. And so the ones that I would mention is, first of all, making healthier versions of our mainstream products. So I'm referring to, for instance, what you've seen so far in OREO Gluten Free or OREO Zero Sugar in China; Gluten Free in the U.S. doing quite well. And you can expect that we will continue to expand those efforts across other brands.

是的。我們看待創新的方式正在發生一些變化。如果你想想我們在世界各地的業務，你會發現我們與 PPA 和 RGM 一樣，都有小創新、新口味、新包裝尺寸的節奏。但這會帶來數百個小項目，這些項目確實推動了我們的業務。但我們正在逐漸消除可能接近一半的小型項目，因為事實上，隨著時間的推移，它們對業務的影響不會那麼大。由於總體而言，我們的業務表現良好，我們有能力這樣做，並且我們正在將重點轉向更大的創新項目。因此，我首先要提到的是，製作我們主流產品的更健康版本。所以我指的是，例如，到目前為止，您在中國看到的奧利奧無麩質或奧利奧零糖；無麩質食品在美國的表現相當不錯。您可以期待我們將繼續將這些努力擴展到其他品牌。

And then we are entering quite significantly in cakes and pastries. And there, you can expect us to push quite hard. And so you could see the OREO Cakesters or the OREO Airy Cake in China. And these are all significant innovations that have the potential OF tens of millions of dollars of net revenue per country. We're pushing hard on premium chocolates. So we launched, for instance, the Toblerone pralines or we have done some big innovations on our core chocolate tablet. So these are bigger innovations that require more work and higher potential, but we are reshifting our efforts towards those. So I don't know if I would call it what you were asking, Alexia, do we see a pick-up in the pace of innovation. I think the impact of innovation on our growth will increase in the coming years. But it's not driven by more innovation. It's driven by better innovation, I would say.

然後我們正在大力進入蛋糕和糕點領域。在那裡，你可以期待我們會非常努力地推動。所以你可以在中國看到奧利奧蛋糕店或奧利奧艾里蛋糕。這些都是重大創新，有可能為每個國家帶來數千萬美元的淨收入。我們正在大力推廣優質巧克力。例如，我們推出了 Toblerone 果仁糖，或者我們在核心巧克力片上做了一些重大創新。因此，這些都是更大的創新，需要更多的工作和更高的潛力，但我們正在重新調整我們的努力方向。所以我不知道我是否會像你問的那樣稱呼它，Alexia，我們是否看到創新步伐的加快。我認為創新對我們成長的影響在未來幾年將會增加。但這並不是更多創新所驅動的。我想說，這是由更好的創新所驅動的。

Very helpful. And then can I just follow up finally, do you have any observations about the state of the American consumer? I think we've heard from other companies that they've been down trading. There's vulnerability. There's channel shifting. I'm just wondering whether some of the challenges being in North America are being driven by this consumer dynamic.

很有幫助。最後我可以跟進一下，您對美國消費者的狀況有什麼看法嗎？我想我們從其他公司聽說他們一直在下跌。有漏洞。有頻道轉換。我只是想知道北美面臨的一些挑戰是否是由這種消費者動態造成的。

Yes, everything you're saying is true. Let me explain it a little bit. I would say the consumer, as it relates from a behavior standpoint, as in the fourth quarter, showed the biggest shift. And I can explain a little bit the shift that we've seen. But from a mindset perspective, from a confidence perspective, in North America, probably the best in the last 2.5 years. So what they're doing is still reflecting sort of the tension they're under, but they are expecting the economy to improve and that better times are ahead for them.

是的，你說的一切都是真的。讓我解釋一下。我想說，從行為角度來看，消費者在第四季展現了最大的轉變。我可以稍微解釋一下我們所看到的轉變。但從心態的角度、從信心的角度來看，北美可能是過去 2.5 年來最好的。因此，他們所做的仍然反映了他們所面臨的緊張局勢，但他們預計經濟將會改善，更好的時光就在前方。

So what are they doing? We see a little bit more of an elasticity effect. And the way they react to that is they're waiting more. We see particularly light buyers waiting for promotion, so not buying with the same frequency but buying more when it's on promotion. We see them downsizing, going to smaller formats and buying more of those. We see shift in channels. They go to club channels, e-commerce channels. That's the one we see winning. And then we have a number of sort of mechanical effects that we're seeing, particularly the SNAP reduction in the U.S. And so we see less disposable income for a certain group of consumers.

那他們在做什麼呢？我們看到了更多的彈性效應。他們對此的反應是等待更多。我們發現等待促銷的買家數量特別少，因此不會以相同的頻率購買，而是在促銷時購買更多。我們看到他們縮小規模、採用更小的規格併購買更多的產品。我們看到管道的轉變。他們去俱樂部渠道、電商渠道。這就是我們看到的獲勝者。然後我們看到了一些機械效應，特別是美國 SNAP 的減少，因此我們看到某些消費者群體的可支配收入減少。

But overall, I would say, we expect that, that gradually will improve because of that mindset change that I was saying. So the overall volume expectations as the year goes by in the U.S. we are expecting to accelerate to get better. That's a little bit our view on the consumer at the moment.

但總的來說，我想說，我們預計，由於我所說的心態改變，這種情況會逐漸改善。因此，隨著時間的推移，美國的整體銷售預期將加速改善。這就是我們目前對消費者的一些看法。

Great. I'll hand it back to you.

偉大的。我會把它還給你。

Well, thank you. I think that was the last question. As we said, we feel very good about '23. It was a great year for us. We are entering '24 with good momentum. I think we're prepared for everything that we are seeing ahead of it. And as I said, there is some issues that we have to look at. But despite all that, and including those effects into our forecast for the year, we think that we're going to have a strong year. We'll see how the client disruption goes in Europe. So we have to wait a little bit to see how the first quarter goes by. But overall, we think we will have and on to the higher side of our algorithm year at this stage that we can forecast.

嗯，謝謝。我認為這是最後一個問題。正如我們所說，我們對 23 年感覺非常好。這對我們來說是美好的一年。我們正以良好的勢頭進入 24 年。我認為我們已經為即將發生的一切做好了準備。正如我所說，我們必須考慮一些問題。但儘管如此，並將這些影響納入我們今年的預測中，我們認為我們將度過強勁的一年。我們將看看歐洲的客戶中斷情況如何。因此，我們必須稍等一下，看看第一季的情況如何。但總的來說，我們認為現階段我們的演算法年將達到我們可以預測的更高水準。

Again, thank you, and happy to answer any other questions that you would have through our IR department.

再次感謝您，並很樂意回答您透過我們的 IR 部門提出的任何其他問題。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。