ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to ManpowerGroup's Second Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded. If you care to dropoff now, please do so.

歡迎參加萬寶盛華集團第二季度盈利結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）此通話正在錄音。如果您現在想下車，請這樣做。

I would now like to turn the call over to ManpowerGroup's Chairman and CEO, Jonas Prising. Sir, you may begin.

我現在想將電話轉給萬寶盛華集團董事長兼首席執行官喬納斯·普里辛 (Jonas Prising)。先生，您可以開始了。

Welcome to the second quarter conference call for 2023. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jack McGinnis, is with me today. For your convenience, we have included our prepared remarks within the Investor Relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com.

歡迎參加 2023 年第二季度電話會議。我們的首席財務官 Jack McGinnis 今天和我在一起。為了您的方便，我們已將準備好的評論納入我們網站 manpowergroup.com 的投資者關係部分。

I will start by going through some of the highlights of the quarter, then Jack will go through the second quarter results and guidance for the third quarter of 2023. I will then share some concluding thoughts before we start our Q&A session. And Jack will now cover the Safe Harbor language.

我將首先介紹本季度的一些亮點，然後 Jack 將介紹第二季度的業績和 2023 年第三季度的指導。然後，在我們開始問答環節之前，我將分享一些結論性的想法。傑克現在將介紹安全港語言。

Good morning, everyone. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, including statements concerning economic and geopolitical uncertainty, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on management’s current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

大家，早安。本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關經濟和地緣政治不確定性的陳述，這些陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響。這些陳述基於管理層當前的期望或信念。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Slide 2 of our earnings release presentation further identifies forward-looking statements made in this call and factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially and information regarding reconciliation of non-GAAP measures.

我們的收益發布演示文稿的幻燈片 2 進一步確定了本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性陳述以及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素以及有關非公認會計準則措施調節的信息。

Thanks Jack.

謝謝杰克。

I’m just back from trips through Europe, which included VivaTech, one of the world’s largest technology and start-up events in Paris, where we were a key partner for the seventh year, showcasing our innovation and workforce expertise in our New Human Age lab.

我剛剛從歐洲旅行回來，其中包括在巴黎舉行的 VivaTech，這是世界上最大的技術和初創企業活動之一，我們連續第七年成為該活動的主要合作夥伴，展示了我們在新人類時代實驗室的創新和勞動力專業知識。

The advancement of Generative AI and the impact on skills and jobs was a hot topic. Our panel roles and media interviews led me to reflect that we first discussed the impact of automation on jobs almost ten years ago at the World Economic Forum. And our data and experience tell us then as now that human capital augmented by tech is what will accelerate progress – companies that automate and digitize the most see the biggest productivity improvements and create the most jobs. And the biggest challenge won’t be the elimination of jobs; it will be the need for new workforce skillsets at a speed and scale never seen before.

生成式人工智能的進步及其對技能和工作的影響是一個熱門話題。我們的小組角色和媒體採訪讓我反思，我們大約十年前在世界經濟論壇上首次討論了自動化對就業的影響。我們的數據和經驗告訴我們，無論是現在還是現在，技術增強的人力資本都將加速進步——自動化和數字化程度最高的公司將實現最大的生產力提高並創造最多的就業機會。最大的挑戰不是失業，而是工作崗位的減少。這將需要以前所未有的速度和規模培養新的勞動力技能。

Reflecting on global labor markets and economic environment – although we continue to see labor markets demonstrate resilience around the world with continued low unemployment in many markets, some signs of broader economic pressures are emerging. As I mentioned last quarter, we are seeing slower hiring trends across the board with particular impacts in certain sectors in the U.S and Europe. Large tech enterprise companies have continued to substantially reduce headcounts. A trend that began in late 2022. We are also tracking softer commercial staffing demand due to decreased production in some manufacturing activities.

反思全球勞動力市場和經濟環境——儘管我們繼續看到世界各地勞動力市場表現出彈性，許多市場失業率持續較低，但一些更廣泛經濟壓力的跡象正在出現。正如我上個季度提到的，我們看到招聘趨勢全面放緩，對美國和歐洲的某些行業影響尤為明顯。大型科技企業繼續大幅裁員。這一趨勢始於 2022 年底。我們還在跟踪由於某些製造活動的產量下降而導致的商業人員需求疲軟。

Our most recent ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey of 40,000 employers in 30 plus countries conducted in the spring found companies plan more measured hiring for Q3 as they navigate a range of local and macro challenges from supply constraints to uneven consumer confidence and shifting purchasing priorities amid continued high inflation. Many labor market and other economic data points often lag the cautious employer trends that impact our industry first.

我們在春季對 30 多個國家的 40,000 名雇主進行的最新萬寶盛華就業前景調查發現，企業計劃在第三季度進行更加謹慎的招聘，因為它們正在應對一系列本地和宏觀挑戰，包括供應限制、消費者信心不平衡以及在持續高通脹的情況下改變購買重點。許多勞動力市場和其他經濟數據點往往落後於首先影響我們行業的謹慎雇主趨勢。

And in this environment, we saw mixed demand for staffing and weakened demand for permanent recruitment services in the U.S. and Europe. At the same time, we continue to see growth in LATAM and APME with ongoing demand for our services.

在這種環境下，我們看到美國和歐洲對人員配置的需求參差不齊，對永久招聘服務的需求減弱。與此同時，我們繼續看到拉丁美洲和 APME 的增長以及對我們服務的持續需求。

Moving on to our financial results, in the second quarter revenue was $4.9 billion, down 3% year-over-year in constant currency. Our reported EBITDA for the quarter was $116 million. Adjusting for restructuring and Argentina hyperinflationary foreign exchange charges, EBITDA was $131 million, representing a 31% decrease in constant currency year-over-year. Reported EBITDA margin was 2.4%, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 2.7%. Earnings per diluted share was $1.29 on a reported basis and $1.58 on an adjusted basis. Adjusted earnings per share were down 31% year-over-year in constant currency.

轉向我們的財務業績，第二季度收入為 49 億美元，按固定匯率計算同比下降 3%。我們報告的本季度 EBITDA 為 1.16 億美元。調整重組和阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹外匯費用後，EBITDA 為 1.31 億美元，按固定匯率計算同比下降 31%。報告 EBITDA 利潤率為 2.4%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 2.7%。報告基礎上稀釋後每股收益為 1.29 美元，調整後每股收益為 1.58 美元。按固定匯率計算，調整後每股收益同比下降 31%。

Although uncertainty may persist, from my conversations with clients and our teams in many countries, it is clear that people with specific skill sets continue to be in-demand, and that Human Capital is and will continue to be a key driver of Corporate success, with employers focused on holding on to the talent they struggled to recruit in the last couple of years.

儘管不確定性可能仍然存在，但從我與許多國家的客戶和團隊的對話來看，很明顯，具有特定技能的人才仍然受到需求，人力資本現在並將繼續成為企業成功的關鍵驅動力，雇主專注於留住他們在過去幾年中努力招募的人才。

The progress we have made to meet this demand by diversifying our business across our brands, offerings and geographies will continue to serve us well. Our progress in creating talent at scale through our MyPath and Experis Academy initiatives provide competitive strength as we create the scarce skills our clients are looking for in the talent they need.

我們通過跨品牌、產品和地域實現業務多元化來滿足這一需求所取得的進展將繼續為我們服務。我們通過 MyPath 和 Experis Academy 計劃在大規模培養人才方面取得的進展提供了競爭優勢，因為我們創造了客戶在其所需人才中尋找的稀缺技能。

I will now turn it over to Jack to take you through the results.

現在我將把它交給傑克，讓他帶你了解結果。

Thanks, Jonas.

謝謝，喬納斯。

Revenues in the second quarter came in at the midpoint of our constant currency guidance range. Gross profit margin came in just below our guidance range due to lower permanent recruitment activity. As adjusted, EBITDA was $131 million, representing a 31% decrease in constant currency compared to the prior year period. As adjusted, EBITDA margin was 2.7% and came in at the low-end of our guidance range, representing 110 basis points of decline year-over-year.

第二季度的收入處於我們固定匯率指導範圍的中點。由於長期招聘活動減少，毛利率略低於我們的指導範圍。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.31 億美元，按固定匯率計算，與上年同期相比下降 31%。調整後，EBITDA 利潤率為 2.7%，處於我們指導範圍的下限，同比下降 110 個基點。

During the quarter, year-over-year foreign currency movements had a modest impact on our results. Foreign currency translation drove about one percent swing between the U.S. dollar reported revenue trend and the constant currency related trend. After adjusting for the negative impact of foreign exchange rates, our constant currency revenue decreased 3%. Organic days-adjusted revenue decreased 3% in the quarter in line with our guidance.

本季度，同比外匯變動對我們的業績影響不大。外幣換算導緻美元報告的收入趨勢和恆定貨幣相關趨勢之間產生約百分之一的波動。調整匯率負面影響後，我們的固定貨幣收入下降了 3%。本季度調整後的有機收入下降了 3%，符合我們的指引。

Turning to the EPS bridge on slide 4, reported earnings per share was $1.29 which included $0.29 related to restructuring and non-cash foreign currency charges related to our hyperinflationary translation of our Argentina business.

轉向幻燈片 4 上的 EPS 橋，報告的每股收益為 1.29 美元，其中包括與重組相關的 0.29 美元以及與阿根廷業務的惡性通貨膨脹換算相關的非現金外幣費用。

Argentina is required to be treated as a hyperinflationary economy and the noncash currency translation losses reflect the devaluation of the Argentine peso during the quarter. This is a non-cash accounting charge as our Argentina business operates in their local currency.

阿根廷被要求被視為惡性通貨膨脹經濟體，非現金貨幣換算損失反映了本季度阿根廷比索的貶值。這是一項非現金會計費用，因為我們的阿根廷業務以當地貨幣運營。

Excluding these charges, adjusted EPS was $1.58. Walking from our guidance mid-point, our results included a softer operational performance of $0.05, a lower weighted average share count due to share repurchases in the quarter, which had a positive impact of $0.02 cents, a lower effective tax rate which had a positive impact of $0.02, a foreign currency impact that was $0.01 worse than our guidance, and interest and other expenses which had a negative $0.03 impact.

排除這些費用，調整後每股收益為 1.58 美元。從我們的指導中點開始，我們的業績包括疲軟的運營業績 0.05 美元、由於本季度股票回購而導致的加權平均股票數減少（產生了 0.02 美分的積極影響）、較低的有效稅率（產生了 0.02 美元的積極影響）、外匯影響比我們的指導低了 0.01 美元，以及利息和其他費用產生了 0.03 美元的負面影響。

Next, let’s review our revenue by business line. Year-over-year, on an organic constant currency basis, the Manpower brand reported a revenue decline of 1%, the Experis brand declined by 11%, and the Talent Solutions brand revenue declined by 9%. The Experis decline represented lower activity from both enterprise and convenience customer segments with enterprise clients having a much more pronounced pull-back compared to significant growth in the prior year.

接下來，我們按業務線回顧一下我們的收入。與去年同期相比，在有機固定貨幣基礎上，Manpower 品牌的收入下降了 1%，Experis 品牌的收入下降了 11%，Talent Solutions 品牌的收入下降了 9%。 Experis 的下降代表了企業和便利客戶群體的活動減少，與上一年的顯著增長相比，企業客戶的回落更為明顯。

Within Talent Solutions we saw a significant year-over-year revenue decline in RPO as we anniversaried high levels of permanent hiring across our key markets in the prior year period. Our MSP business saw revenue declines in the quarter as we reduced certain lower margin activity, while Right Management experienced significant revenue growth on higher outplacement volumes in the quarter compared to the record-low levels of activity in the prior year period.

在人才解決方案中，我們看到 RPO 收入同比大幅下降，因為我們在上一年期間在主要市場進行了高水平的長期招聘。由於我們減少了某些利潤率較低的活動，我們的 MSP 業務在本季度出現收入下降，而與去年同期創紀錄的低水平活動相比，右管理在本季度因新職介紹數量增加而實現了顯著的收入增長。

Looking at our gross profit margin in detail, our gross margin came in at 17.8%. Staffing margin contributed a 10 basis point reduction as Manpower experienced the very slight mix related decrease in staffing margin. Permanent recruitment, including Talent Solutions RPO, contributed a 40 basis point GP margin reduction as permanent hiring demand experienced reduced levels from the record high activity in the prior year period. The reduction in permanent recruitment during the quarter was greater than expected which drove the slightly lower than guidance gross margin result.

詳細看我們的毛利率，我們的毛利率為17.8%。由於萬寶盛華經歷了與人員配置利潤率相關的非常輕微的混合相關下降，因此人員配置利潤率下降了 10 個基點。包括人才解決方案 RPO 在內的永久招聘導致 GP 利潤率下降 40 個基點，因為永久招聘需求較去年同期創紀錄的高活動水平有所下降。本季度長期招聘的減少幅度大於預期，導致毛利率略低於指導值。

Right Management career transition within Talent Solutions contributed 30 basis points of improvement as outplacement activity increased significantly. Other items resulted in a 20 basis point margin decrease.

隨著再就業活動的顯著增加，人才解決方案內的正確管理職業轉型貢獻了 30 個基點的改進。其他項目導致利潤率下降 20 個基點。

Moving onto our gross profit by business line. During the quarter, the Manpower brand comprised 58% of gross profit, our Experis professional business comprised 25%, and Talent Solutions comprised 17%.

轉向我們按業務線劃分的毛利潤。本季度，Manpower 品牌佔毛利潤的 58%，Experis 專業業務佔 25%，Talent Solutions 佔 17%。

During the quarter, our consolidated gross profit decreased 6% on an organic constant currency basis year-over-year. Our Manpower brand reported an organic gross profit decrease of 3% in constant currency year-over-year.

本季度，我們的綜合毛利潤按有機固定匯率計算同比下降 6%。我們的 Manpower 品牌報告稱，按固定匯率計算，有機毛利潤同比下降 3%。

Organic gross profit in our Experis brand decreased 13% in constant currency year-over-year. Permanent recruitment decreases within Experis drove the higher rate of overall GP decrease for the brand.

按固定匯率計算，Experis 品牌的有機毛利潤同比下降 13%。 Experis 內永久招聘的減少導致該品牌整體 GP 下降率更高。

Organic gross profit in Talent Solutions decreased 7% in constant currency year-over-year. This was driven by declines in RPO and MSP, partially offset by significant growth in Right Management during the quarter. Gross Profit in RPO decreased in the double-digit percentage range in the quarter as we anniversary record-levels of permanent hiring activity in the prior year period, while MSP experienced a slight GP decline during the quarter.

按固定匯率計算，Talent Solutions 的有機毛利潤同比下降 7%。這是由 RPO 和 MSP 下降推動的，但本季度 Right Management 的顯著增長部分抵消了這一影響。由於我們上一年期間的永久招聘活動達到創紀錄水平，本季度 RPO 毛利潤下降了兩位數，而 MSP 在本季度的 GP 略有下降。

Reported SG&A expense in the quarter was $755 million. Excluding restructuring costs, SG&A was flat year-over-year on an organic constant currency basis, down from the 3% growth in the first quarter on this same basis. This reflects a balance of cost reductions in areas of slowing demand, while we continue to invest in strategic digitization initiatives as well as growth opportunities, most notably including Experis, Talent Solutions, and specialty skills in Manpower. The underlying increases consisted of operational costs of $2 million, incremental costs related to net acquisitions of $4 million, offset by currency changes of $4 million.

本季度報告的 SG&A 費用為 7.55 億美元。不計重組成本，按有機固定匯率計算，SG&A 同比持平，低於第一季度按同一基礎計算的 3% 增長率。這反映了需求放緩領域成本削減的平衡，同時我們繼續投資於戰略數字化計劃和增長機會，尤其是 Experis、人才解決方案和人力專業技能。基本增長包括 200 萬美元的運營成本、400 萬美元的淨收購相關增量成本，以及 400 萬美元的貨幣變動所抵消。

Adjusted SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue represented 15.2% in constant currency in the second quarter reflecting lowered operational leverage on the revenue decline. Restructuring costs totaled $14.5 million.

按固定匯率計算，第二季度調整後的 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比為 15.2%，反映出收入下降導致運營槓桿降低。重組成本總計 1,450 萬美元。

The Americas segment comprised 23% of consolidated revenue. Revenue in the quarter was $1.1 billion, representing a decrease of 9% compared to the prior year period on a constant currency basis. Reported OUP was $43 million and includes $1 million of restructuring costs. As adjusted, OUP was $44 million and OUP margin was 4.0%.

美洲業務佔合併收入的 23%。該季度收入為 11 億美元，按固定匯率計算比去年同期下降 9%。報告的 OUP 為 4300 萬美元，其中包括 100 萬美元的重組成本。調整後，OUP 為 4,400 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 4.0%。

The U.S. is the largest country in the Americas segment, comprising 67% of segment revenues. Revenue in the U.S. was $737 million during the quarter representing an 18% days-adjusted decrease compared to the prior year.

美國是美洲細分市場中最大的國家，佔該細分市場收入的 67%。該季度美國地區的收入為 7.37 億美元，按天數調整後較上年同期下降 18%。

As adjusted to exclude restructuring costs, OUP for our U.S. business was $27 million in the quarter representing a decrease of 60% from the prior year. As adjusted, OUP margin was 3.6%. Within the U.S., the Manpower brand comprised 26% of gross profit during the quarter. Revenue for the Manpower brand in the U.S. decreased 19% on a days-adjusted basis during the quarter, representing a further decline from the 15% decrease in the first quarter.

排除重組成本後，本季度我們美國業務的 OUP 為 2700 萬美元，比上年下降 60%。調整後，OUP 利潤率為 3.6%。在美國，萬寶盛華品牌佔本季度毛利潤的 26%。萬寶盛華品牌在美國的收入在本季度按天數調整後下降了 19%，較第一季度 15% 的降幅進一步下降。

Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. continued to decline during the second quarter from the [48 range] in March to the [46 range] in June. The U.S. Manpower business was seeing an improved rate of decline as we exited the quarter.

美國第二季度製造業PMI持續下滑，從3月的[48區間]下降至6月的[46區間]。當我們結束本季度時，美國人力資源業務的下降速度有所改善。

The Experis brand in the U.S. comprised 46% of gross profit in the quarter. Within Experis in the U.S., IT skills comprised approximately 90% of revenues. On a days-adjusted basis, Experis U.S. revenue decreased 17% as we anniversaried significant 2022 growth of 25% organically in the year-ago period. As referenced earlier, the year ago period experienced dramatic growth from enterprise clients and this period’s pull-back is most pronounced from these enterprise clients.

美國的 Experis 品牌佔本季度毛利潤的 46%。在美國的 Experis 中，IT 技能約佔收入的 90%。按天數調整後，Experis 美國收入下降了 17%，因為我們迎來了 2022 年有機增長 25% 的周年紀念日。如前所述，去年同期企業客戶出現了大幅增長，而這一時期這些企業客戶的回落最為明顯。

Talent Solutions in the U.S. contributed 28% of gross profit and experienced revenue decline of 22% in the quarter. This was driven by a decrease in RPO revenues in the U.S. as permanent hiring programs continued at lower levels in the second quarter as we anniversaried record growth in the prior year. The U.S. MSP business saw revenue decline as we reduced some lower margin activity, our outplacement activity within our Right Management business drove significant revenue increases.

美國的 Talent Solutions 本季度貢獻了 28% 的毛利潤，但收入下降了 22%。這是由於美國 RPO 收入下降，因為我們在上一年創紀錄的增長周年紀念日，第二季度永久招聘計劃繼續保持在較低水平。由於我們減少了一些利潤率較低的活動，美國 MSP 業務的收入有所下降，而我們的右管理業務中的再就業活動推動了收入的大幅增長。

In the third quarter of 2023, we expect a similar to slightly lower rate of year-over-year revenue decline as compared to the second quarter trend in the U.S.

與美國第二季度的趨勢相比，我們預計 2023 年第三季度的收入同比下降率將略有下降。

Southern Europe revenue comprised 46% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue in Southern Europe came in at $2.2 billion, representing a 1% decrease in organic constant currency. Reported OUP was $93 million and includes $6 million of restructuring costs which were related to our Spain Operations. As adjusted, OUP was $99 million and OUP margin was 4.4%. France revenue comprised 57% of the Southern Europe segment in the quarter and revenue equaled $1.3 billion in the quarter and was flat on a days-adjusted organic constant currency basis. OUP for our France business was $50 million in the quarter representing an organic decrease of 25% in constant currency.

南歐收入佔本季度合併收入的 46%。南歐的收入為 22 億美元，按有機固定貨幣計算下降 1%。報告的 OUP 為 9300 萬美元，其中包括與我們西班牙業務相關的 600 萬美元重組成本。調整後，OUP 為 9,900 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 4.4%。本季度法國收入佔南歐市場的 57%，本季度收入為 13 億美元，按按天調整的有機固定貨幣計算持平。本季度我們法國業務的 OUP 為 5,000 萬美元，按固定匯率計算有機下降 25%。

OUP margin was 3.9%. We are estimating the year over year constant currency revenue trend in the third quarter for France to be a very slight constant currency decrease year-over-year representing a flat days-adjusted result.

OUP 利潤率為 3.9%。我們估計，法國第三季度的同比恆定貨幣收入趨勢將是同比非常輕微的恆定貨幣下降，代表天數調整後的結果持平。

Revenue in Italy equaled $458 million in the quarter and was flat on a days-adjusted constant currency basis. OUP equaled $36 million and OUP margin was 7.9%. We expect a similar rate of constant currency revenue decline in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

本季度意大利的收入為 4.58 億美元，按天數調整的固定匯率計算持平。 OUP 相當於 3600 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 7.9%。我們預計第三季度的恆定貨幣收入下降率與第二季度類似。

Our Northern Europe segment comprised 19% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue of $952 million represented a 6% decline in constant currency. After excluding restructuring costs of $8 million, adjusted OUP was a negative $2 million and OUP margin was a negative 0.2%. The restructuring costs related to our Nordics and Germany operations.

我們的北歐業務佔本季度合併收入的 19%。按固定匯率計算，收入為 9.52 億美元，下降 6%。扣除 800 萬美元的重組成本後，調整後的 OUP 為負 200 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為負 0.2%。重組成本與我們的北歐和德國業務有關。

Our largest market in the Northern Europe segment is the U.K., which represented 34% of segment revenues in the quarter. During the quarter, U.K. revenues decreased 12% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis. This reflects a stabilized rate of decline from the first quarter on this same basis. We expect a similar rate of constant currency revenue decline in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

我們在北歐細分市場的最大市場是英國，佔本季度細分市場收入的 34%。本季度，英國收入按天調整固定匯率計算下降 12%。這反映出在同一基礎上，下降速度較第一季度趨於穩定。我們預計第三季度的恆定貨幣收入下降率與第二季度類似。

In Germany, revenues increased 5% in days-adjusted constant currency in the quarter, representing three consecutive quarters of improvement driven by our Manpower business, particularly in the automotive sector. I mentioned last quarter that we were performing a detailed evaluation of our underperforming Proservia managed services business in Germany. We have concluded this evaluation and have decided to wind down this business. The wind down activities are commencing in the third quarter.

在德國，按天數調整後的固定匯率計算，本季度收入增長了 5%，這表明我們的人力業務（特別是汽車行業）推動了連續三個季度的增長。我上個季度提到，我們正在對德國表現不佳的 Proservia 託管服務業務進行詳細評估。我們已經結束了這次評估並決定結束這項業務。逐步結束活動將於第三季度開始。

I will provide further details on the expected restructuring charges associated with this wind down as part of our third quarter earnings results. This business has been a significant drag on our Germany operations and these actions will improve profitability going forward. Overall, in the third quarter we are expecting a similar rate of constant currency revenue growth compared to the second quarter trend driven by our Manpower business.

作為我們第三季度盈利結果的一部分，我將提供與此次縮減相關的預期重組費用的更多詳細信息。這項業務嚴重拖累了我們在德國的業務，這些行動將提高未來的盈利能力。總體而言，我們預計第三季度的恆定貨幣收入增長率與人力業務推動的第二季度趨勢類似。

In the Netherlands, revenue decreased 7% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis and this represented a stable rate of decline from the first quarter on this same basis.

在荷蘭，按天數調整的固定匯率計算，收入下降了 7%，與第一季度相比，按同一基礎計算的下降率穩定。

The Asia Pacific Middle East segment comprises 12% of total company revenue. In the quarter, revenue grew 4% in constant currency to $599 million. OUP was $26 million and OUP margin was 4.3%. Our largest market in the APME segment is Japan, which represented 48% of segment revenues in the quarter. Revenue in Japan grew 12% in constant currency, or 10% on a days-adjusted basis. We remain very pleased with the consistent performance of our Japan business, and we expect continued strong revenue growth in the third quarter.

亞太中東業務占公司總收入的 12%。按固定匯率計算，本季度收入增長 4%，達到 5.99 億美元。 OUP 為 2600 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 4.3%。我們在 APME 細分市場中最大的市場是日本，佔本季度細分市場收入的 48%。日本的收入按固定匯率計算增長 12%，按天數調整計算增長 10%。我們對日本業務的持續表現感到非常滿意，我們預計第三季度的收入將繼續強勁增長。

I’ll now turn to cash flow and balance sheet. In the second quarter, free cash flow represented an outflow of $177 million compared to an outflow of $72 million in the prior year. The higher outflow in the current year was driven by timing of payables and timing of payments within our large MSP business.

我現在轉向現金流和資產負債表。第二季度自由現金流流出 1.77 億美元，而上一年為 7200 萬美元。本年度較高的流出是由我們大型 MSP 業務中的應付賬款時間和付款時間推動的。

At the end of the second quarter, days sales outstanding was flat at 58 days. During the second quarter, capital expenditures represented $21 million. During the second quarter we repurchased 687,000 shares of stock for $50 million. As of June 30th, we have 928,000 shares remaining for repurchase under the share program approved in August of 2021.

第二季度末，應收賬款天數持平於 58 天。第二季度資本支出為 2100 萬美元。第二季度，我們以 5,000 萬美元回購了 687,000 股股票。截至 6 月 30 日，根據 2021 年 8 月批准的股票計劃，我們尚有 928,000 股可供回購。

Our balance sheet ended the quarter with cash of $408 million and total debt of $1 billion. Net debt equaled $594 million at quarter-end. Our debt ratios at quarter-end reflect total adjusted gross debt to trailing twelve months Adjusted EBITDA of [1.53] and total debt to total capitalization at 29%. Our debt and credit facilities remained unchanged during the quarter.

截至本季度末，我們的資產負債表現金為 4.08 億美元，總債務為 10 億美元。季度末淨債務為 5.94 億美元。我們季末的債務比率反映了調整後總債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比值為 [1.53]，總債務與總資本的比率為 29%。本季度我們的債務和信貸安排保持不變。

Next, I'll review our outlook for the third quarter of 2023. Based on trends in the second quarter and July activity to date, our forecast is cautious and anticipates that the third quarter will continue to be challenging in the U.S. and Europe. This anticipates further weakening of permanent recruitment activity based on developments in the second quarter partially offset by additional cost actions being taken. We are forecasting underlying earnings per share for the third quarter to be

接下來，我將回顧我們對 2023 年第三季度的展望。根據第二季度和 7 月份迄今為止的活動趨勢，我們的預測是謹慎的，並預計第三季度美國和歐洲將繼續面臨挑戰。這預計基於第二季度的發展，永久招聘活動將進一步減弱，並被採取的額外成本行動部分抵消。我們預計第三季度的基本每股收益為

In the range of $1.32 to $1.42, which includes a favorable foreign currency impact of $0.08 per share. We have disclosed our foreign currency translation rate estimates at the bottom of the guidance slide.

範圍為 1.32 至 1.42 美元，其中包括每股 0.08 美元的有利外匯影響。我們在指導幻燈片的底部披露了我們的外幣換算率估計。

Our constant currency revenue guidance range is between a decrease of 7% and 3% and at the midpoint represents a 5% decrease. The impact of net acquisitions is negligible and there is about 1 less billing day this period contributing to an organic days-adjusted constant currency revenue trend of a 3.5% decrease at the mid-point. This is comparable to the decrease in the second quarter on this same basis.

我們的固定貨幣收入指導範圍在下降 7% 至 3% 之間，中點表示下降 5%。淨收購的影響可以忽略不計，而且這一時期的計費日大約減少了 1 個，導致按天數調整的固定貨幣收入趨勢中值下降 3.5%。這與第二季度在同一基礎上的下降幅度相當。

We expect our EBITDA margin during the third quarter to be down 120 basis points at the midpoint compared to the prior year. We estimate that the effective tax rate for the third quarter will be 30%. As usual, our guidance does not incorporate restructuring charges or additional share repurchases and we estimate our weighted average shares to be 50.5 million.

我們預計第三季度 EBITDA 利潤率將比去年同期下降 120 個基點。我們預計第三季度的有效稅率將為30%。與往常一樣，我們的指導不包括重組費用或額外的股票回購，我們估計我們的加權平均股票為 5050 萬股。

As I mentioned, we do expect to have restructuring charges associated with the wind down of our Proservia managed services business in Germany and we will disclose those and any additional restructuring charges separately when we report our third quarter earnings. Our guidance also does not include the impact of the non-cash currency translation adjustment for our Hyperinflationary Argentina business and we will also report that separately.

正如我所提到的，我們確實預計會因德國 Proservia 託管服務業務的結束而產生重組費用，我們將在報告第三季度收益時單獨披露這些費用和任何額外的重組費用。我們的指導也不包括非現金貨幣換算調整對我們惡性通貨膨脹的阿根廷業務的影響，我們也將單獨報告這一點。

I will now turn it back to Jonas.

我現在將其轉回給喬納斯。

Thanks Jack.

謝謝杰克。

To meet the demands and opportunities of the market and position us for success in the future we continue to progress a transformation agenda in support of our strategy. We feel very good about our diversification strategy, building strong brands with differentiated market positions and clear value propositions in Manpower, Experis and Talent Solutions.

為了滿足市場的需求和機遇，並使我們在未來取得成功，我們將繼續推進轉型議程以支持我們的戰略。我們對我們的多元化戰略感到非常滿意，我們在人力、經驗和人才解決方案領域建立了具有差異化市場地位和明確價值主張的強大品牌。

Our digitization strategy will be a key enabler for productivity and innovation providing data and insights our clients and candidates want. Our industry leading global technology platform PowerSuite covers substantially all of our key markets through 2023, with ongoing implementation of common applications and a leading cloud enabled back-office infrastructure across our global footprint, another strong differentiator. We believe this will enable great opportunities for accelerated growth and productivity in the future.

我們的數字化戰略將成為生產力和創新的關鍵推動者，為我們的客戶和候選人提供所需的數據和見解。到 2023 年，我們行業領先的全球技術平台 PowerSuite 基本上覆蓋了我們所有的主要市場，並在我們的全球足跡中持續實施通用應用程序和領先的雲支持後台基礎設施，這是另一個強大的優勢。我們相信，這將為未來加速增長和生產力帶來巨大機遇。

We are also taking decisive actions within the business that are aligned with our strategy to simplify our operations, evolve our brand/geo model and prioritize our investments. Our strategy is clearer than ever, and we are committed to adjusting our portfolio for business that is not core to that strategy. The decision to wind down our Proservia managed services business in Germany, though a difficult one, reinforces our discipline in focusing on IT resourcing and solutions and is a proof point that we will take the necessary actions to address businesses that do not fit our strategy or meet our profitability hurdle rates.

我們還在業務範圍內採取符合我們戰略的果斷行動，以簡化我們的運營、發展我們的品牌/地理模型並優先考慮我們的投資。我們的戰略比以往任何時候都更加清晰，我們致力於針對非該戰略核心的業務調整我們的投資組合。關閉我們在德國的 Proservia 託管服務業務的決定雖然是一項艱難的決定，但卻強化了我們專注於 IT 資源和解決方案的紀律，並證明我們將採取必要的行動來解決不符合我們的戰略或不符合我們的盈利門檻的業務。

We are very pleased to be named a Global Leader in Recruitment Process Outsourcing for the 13th year in the Everest Group PEAK Matrix Assessment. Recognized in North America, Asia Pacific, and Europe, Middle East, and Africa. Everest especially highlighted Talent Solutions’ talent advisory practices in talent strategy, talent transformation, and talent sustainability. Additionally, we were recognized for providing DEIB services to clients, including diverse talent sourcing and DEIB partnerships.

我們很高興連續 13 年在 Everest Group PEAK Matrix 評估中被評為招聘流程外包全球領導者。在北美、亞太地區、歐洲、中東和非洲得到認可。 Everest特別強調了Talent Solutions在人才戰略、人才轉型和人才可持續性方面的人才諮詢實踐。此外，我們還因向客戶提供 DEIB 服務而獲得認可，包括多樣化的人才採購和 DEIB 合作夥伴關係。

Our commitment to integrating and including diverse talent is recognized by our clients and by our partners. In June, we reaffirmed our dedication to refugee employment in Europe by committing that we will support 45,000 refugees over the next three years, including Ukrainian refugee women. This includes working with clients and others to place 30,000 refugees into meaningful employment opportunities and providing 15,000 refugees with a mix of upskilling and training courses through our MyPath and Experis Academies.

我們對整合和包容多元化人才的承諾得到了我們的客戶和合作夥伴的認可。 6 月，我們重申致力於歐洲難民就業，承諾在未來三年內支持 45,000 名難民，其中包括烏克蘭難民婦女。這包括與客戶和其他人合作，為 30,000 名難民提供有意義的就業機會，並通過我們的 MyPath 和 Experis 學院為 15,000 名難民提供技能提升和培訓課程。

I would like to close by thanking our ManpowerGroup team around the world for another quarter of dedication to drive the business forward despite a more challenging environment in many markets. Our experienced leadership team has faced similar challenges in the past and as much as we are focused on navigating an uncertain environment we are also preparing for a strong rebound when the markets improve.

最後，我要感謝我們世界各地的萬寶盛華團隊在許多市場面臨更具挑戰性的環境的情況下，又一個季度致力於推動業務發展。我們經驗豐富的領導團隊過去也面臨過類似的挑戰，儘管我們專注於應對不確定的環境，但我們也在為市場好轉時的強勁反彈做好準備。

And with that, I will open to Q&A – operator?

接下來，我將向接線員開放問答環節？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的馬克·馬爾孔 (Mark Marcon)。

Wondering -- can you talk a little bit more about the trends that you're seeing in Experis, and what you're hearing from some of the larger enterprise clients in terms of what their outlook is in terms of spending and the need for resources? And how would you compare and contrast that relative to the overall narratives that's -- that we see across the U.S. economy that things are holding up a little bit better.

想知道 - 您能否多談談您在 Experis 中看到的趨勢，以及您從一些大型企業客戶那裡聽到的關於支出和資源需求的前景？您如何將其與我們在整個美國經濟中看到的整體敘述進行比較和對比，情況稍好一些。

Sure, Mark, and thanks for the question. I think the trends that we're seeing today is really a continuation of what we talked about when we had our call in the first quarter. Enterprise clients had a hiring boom about this time in 2022. They started to pull back from that hiring boom as we saw in the first quarter. That trend really continued for enterprise clients, and I'm here specifically talking mostly about the U.S. and the U.K. They pulled back from that and that continued into the second quarter.

當然，馬克，謝謝你的提問。我認為我們今天看到的趨勢實際上是我們在第一季度接到電話時所討論的內容的延續。企業客戶大約在 2022 年的這個時候出現了招聘熱潮。正如我們在第一季度看到的那樣，他們開始從招聘熱潮中撤退。對於企業客戶來說，這種趨勢確實持續存在，我在這裡主要主要談論美國和英國，他們從這一趨勢中撤退，這種情況一直持續到第二季​​度。

And I would describe our conversations with our clients in a sense that they are waiting for clearer signs of a strengthening market on a bottoming market. They continue to be very interested in specific skill sets. And as you can tell from our from our revenue trends, there are still opportunities in the market and contrast that with the convenience market with -- which is although softer, holding up much better than the enterprise market. And we feel very good, frankly, about both because we are a strong player in the enterprise market. We know when those markets get going again. They provide for great growth opportunities.

我會描述我們與客戶的對話，從某種意義上說，他們正在等待市場觸底反彈的更明確跡象。他們仍然對特定技能非常感興趣。正如您從我們的收入趨勢中可以看出的那樣，市場上仍然存在機會，並將其與便利市場形成鮮明對比——雖然便利市場較為疲軟，但比企業市場的表現要好得多。坦率地說，我們對這兩方面都感覺非常好，因為我們是企業市場的強大參與者。我們知道這些市場何時會再次運轉。它們提供了巨大的增長機會。

And then we have strength in the convenience market, which I think is also going to service very well. So it's really a continuation of the trends that we saw in the first quarter against a backdrop of a hiring boom in a number of industries that we serve, notably, the tech industry in Experis, so that's really what we have been seeing, and that's what our clients are telling us.

然後我們在便利市場上有實力，我認為這也將提供很好的服務。因此，這實際上是我們在第一季度看到的趨勢的延續，背景是我們所服務的許多行業（尤其是 Experis 的科技行業）招聘熱潮，所以這確實是我們所看到的，也是我們的客戶告訴我們的。

Along those lines, are they -- in terms of waiting for some clearer signs, do you think that those clearer signs could end up emerging by the fourth quarter or the first quarter? Or is it just staying -- does it still seem pretty murky from their perspective?

沿著這些思路，在等待一些更清晰的跡象方面，您認為這些更清晰的跡象最終可能會在第四季度或第一季度出現嗎？或者它只是停留在——從他們的角度來看，它看起來仍然很模糊嗎？

I think from a client perspective, and I'm sure for many of us, there are so many conflicting signals about the economy that it's hard to tell when something would turn around. But from our perspective, if you look at our data, as an industry and as a business, we are already operating in an environment that is indicative of what we would call the garden variety recession level for now a number of quarters in the U.S. and more quarters in Europe.

我認為，從客戶的角度來看，我相信對我們許多人來說，關於經濟的信號有太多相互矛盾的地方，很難判斷什麼時候會出現好轉。但從我們的角度來看，如果你看看我們的數據，作為一個行業和一個企業，我們已經在一個表明美國目前幾個季度和歐洲更多季度所謂的普通衰退水平的環境中運營。

And if you look at the overall indicators on the labor market in the U.S., you see our industry is coming down to a lower level. You've seen hours worked coming down. You've seen more part-time people looking for full-time work. So the indicators are all there for a slightly worsening labor market. Although it hasn't transpired yet into the broader economy or, frankly, into the broader labor market, which is still very resilient. But our view is that to tamper inflation wage inflation will have to come down, which means policymakers will continue to try and cool off the labor market in their battle against rising inflation. And that means we can expect some further weakening of the labor markets, and that's exactly what you see us talk about in our outlook. And that's why whilst we saw a significant step down on perm in the second quarter, and we continue to see it. It's entirely consistent with that expectation.

如果你看看美國勞動力市場的總體指標，你會發現我們的行業正在下降到較低的水平。您已經看到工作時間減少了。您已經看到越來越多的兼職人員正在尋找全職工作。因此，所有指標都表明勞動力市場略有惡化。儘管它還沒有體現在更廣泛的經濟中，或者坦率地說，還沒有體現在更廣泛的勞動力市場上，但勞動力市場仍然非常有彈性。但我們的觀點是，為了抑制通脹，工資通脹率必須下降，這意味著政策制定者將繼續努力為勞動力市場降溫，以應對通脹上升。這意味著我們可以預期勞動力市場將進一步疲軟，而這正是我們在展望中所談論的內容。這就是為什麼我們在第二季度看到燙髮業務大幅下降，並且我們將繼續看到這種情況。這完全符合這個預期。

Yes. And that's consistent with what we were expecting as well. Can -- just shifting over to Northern Europe. Obviously, you telegraphed the move with regards to Proservia last quarter. When you think about Northern Europe from a longer-term perspective, maybe 3 to 5 years out, what sort of margin expectations should investors have with regards to Northern Europe, Jonas?

是的。這也符合我們的預期。可以——只是轉移到北歐。顯然，您在上個季度傳達了有關 Proservia 的舉動。喬納斯，當您從更長遠的角度（也許是 3 到 5 年）考慮北歐時，投資者應該對北歐有什麼樣的利潤預期？

I think as you look at the Northern Europe business, Mark, you have a couple of things. This is where we have most of our bench countries. So when you see a decline in revenue, this is the region that takes the biggest hit on the decline in margins because we keep our bench there. You have one of our biggest countries, the U.K., which has been also sensitive to the enterprise exposure we talked about, both on the Manpower and the Experis side, and that saw some weakness as well.

馬克，我認為當你審視北歐業務時，你會發現一些事情。這是我們大部分替補國家的所在地。因此，當你看到收入下降時，這就是利潤率下降受到最大打擊的地區，因為我們將我們的板凳留在那裡。英國是我們最大的國家之一，它對我們談到的企業風險也很敏感，無論是在 Manpower 方面還是在 Experis 方面，而且也看到了一些弱點。

And then we have a business in Germany that we've been working on turning around. And I have to say we're pleased with the progress that we're making on our staffing side, and we're seeing a good evolution here on revenues with more work to do, but we do have a business that we need to address. And that is exactly what we're signaling in today's earnings call. But you've heard us talk about this over the last couple of quarters already that we're working on the turnaround.

然後我們在德國有一家業務，我們一直在努力扭轉局面。我不得不說，我們對我們在人員配置方面取得的進展感到滿意，我們看到收入有了良好的發展，還有更多的工作要做，但我們確實有一個需要解決的業務。這正是我們在今天的財報電話會議中所發出的信號。但你已經在過去幾個季度聽到我們談論過這個問題，我們正在努力扭轉局面。

But I would say there is no reason not to expect Northern Europe to come back to our target profitability levels as a region on the whole. Right now, it's a little bit of a perfect storm, but we are confident that with the actions that we're taking today and into the future, that we will get Northern Europe back on track by some decisive actions, and you have heard us talk about one of those decisive actions as it relates to our Proservia business in Germany on this call.

但我想說，沒有理由不期望北歐作為一個整體地區能夠回到我們的目標盈利水平。目前，這有點像一場完美風暴，但我們相信，通過我們今天和未來採取的行動，我們將通過一些果斷行動讓北歐重回正軌，您已經聽到我們在這次電話會議上談論了其中一項果斷行動，因為它與我們在德國的 Proservia 業務有關。

Our next question comes from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬治·唐。

You touched on some of the factors driving the declines in Experis. Can you elaborate on some of the trends in Talent Solutions, specifically, how trends are performing with RPO and the MSP business?

您談到了導致 Experis 下降的一些因素。您能否詳細說明人才解決方案的一些趨勢，特別是 RPO 和 MSP 業務的趨勢如何？

Sure. The RPO business is clearly feeling the effects of the slowing hiring environment from a permanent recruitment perspective. And of course, RPO is an enterprise business. It has very limited convenience activities. So it really is exactly in the crosshairs of both enterprise and perm slowdown right now, had fantastic performance and really benefited from the hiring boom.

當然。從長期招聘的角度來看，RPO 業務顯然感受到了招聘環境放緩的影響。當然，RPO 是一項企業業務。它的便利活動非常有限。因此，它現在確實處於企業和燙髮放緩的十字路口，表現出色，並且確實受益於招聘熱潮。

We have a very strong position in RPO, we're the global leaders. We feel very good about that business. But right now, we're going through the economic cycle, and we can see the reduction both in enterprise spend as evidenced in reductions in permanent recruitment. So RPO is having a tougher time in this quarter. MSP is really starting to stabilize, we believe, and is really seeing some of the actions that we're taking on rebalancing our client mix there.

我們在 RPO 方面擁有非常強大的地位，我們是全球領導者。我們對這項業務感覺非常好。但現在，我們正在經歷經濟周期，我們可以看到企業支出的減少，這體現在長期招聘的減少上。因此，RPO 在本季度的處境更加艱難。我們相信，MSP 確實開始穩定下來，並且確實看到了我們為重新平衡客戶結構而採取的一些行動。

And finally, of course, as part of Talent Solutions, we're seeing very strong activity and growth in Right Management in this quarter. So on the whole, it's a mixed picture with RPO feeling the effects of permanent recruitment. MSP, you really reflecting the levels that we're seeing in our staffing businesses overall, so aligned and then a strong Right Management performance.

當然，最後，作為人才解決方案的一部分，我們在本季度看到 Right Management 的活動和增長非常強勁。因此，總體而言，RPO 感受到永久招聘的影響，情況好壞參半。 MSP，您確實反映了我們在整個人力資源業務中所看到的水平，如此一致，然後是強大的正確管理績效。

Okay. That's helpful. You talked about taking decisive actions in the business to better align the strategy, the core to simplify the operations and Proservia was a great example of that. Are there additional areas of the business that you see opportunity or potential for further streamlining?

好的。這很有幫助。您談到了在業務中採取果斷行動以更好地調整戰略、簡化運營的核心，Proservia 就是一個很好的例子。您是否認為業務的其他領域有進一步精簡的機會或潛力？

I think there might be areas that we're going to be looking at in terms of what we can do. Over time, you've seen us look at our geographic portfolio. You've seen us address a number of areas, where we think we can do better and be more focused, and I think you should expect us to continue to do that. But when we have something particularly important, we tell you in advance. And now we've made the decisions, we're proceeding with Proservia. But I think, Jack, maybe in this environment, clearly, we are also looking at the cost and SG&A very closely. So maybe you'd like to elaborate on this a little bit as well.

我認為我們可能會在某些領域做一些我們可以做的事情。隨著時間的推移，您已經看到我們審視我們的地理投資組合。您已經看到我們解決了許多領域的問題，我們認為我們可以在這些領域做得更好、更加專注，而且我認為您應該期望我們繼續這樣做。但當我們有特別重要的事情時，我們會提前告訴您。現在我們已經做出了決定，我們將繼續推進 Proservia。但我認為，傑克，也許在這種環境下，顯然我們也在非常密切地關注成本和銷售管理費用。也許您也想對此進行詳細說明。

Sure. Thanks. Jonas. Yeah. And George, other examples where we have taken some actions, we did have some modest restructuring during Q2. Spain was part of that, probably the bigger part of that. The Nordics, Jonas talked about Northern Europe. Those are bench countries. We've done some streamlining there as well. And then, of course, Germany that we've talked about, where we have the Proservia wind-down commencing.

當然。謝謝。喬納斯.是的。喬治，我們採取了一些行動的其他例子，我們在第二季度確實進行了一些適度的重組。西班牙是其中的一部分，可能是其中更大的一部分。北歐人，喬納斯談到了北歐。這些都是替補國家。我們也在那裡做了一些精簡。當然，還有我們討論過的德國，我們在那裡開始了 Proservia 的逐步結束。

So we are in line with what we said previous quarter. We are looking at parts of the business that are seeing more significant slowing and acting and taking actions, but broader than that, we're also pulling back on broader discretionary spend, looking at corporate functions, looking at country headquarter functions as well and making adjustments. And the one area you won't hear us talk about cutting will be sales. We're very focused on continuing to be positioned for the upturn when it comes, and we're very focused on producer counts. So we're keeping a very close eye on that and being very careful.

因此，我們與上季度所說的一致。我們正在研究那些出現更顯著放緩的業務，並採取行動，但更廣泛的是，我們還縮減了更廣泛的可自由支配支出，研究公司職能，研究國家總部職能並做出調整。您不會聽到我們談論削減的一個領域是銷售。我們非常注重在經濟好轉時繼續做好準備，而且我們非常注重生產商數量。因此，我們正在密切關注這一點並非常小心。

But I would say, outside of producers and sales, you should expect that we're taking a very close look and taking actions and pulling back on costs in those specific areas. And as Jonas said, we'll talk a lot more about Proservia next quarter. We're right in the middle of it right now, working with the workers' councils and clients, as you would expect, and we'll give a further update next quarter.

但我想說，除了生產商和銷售之外，你應該期望我們正在非常仔細地審視並採取行動並降低這些特定領域的成本。正如 Jonas 所說，下個季度我們將更多地討論 Proservia。正如您所期望的那樣，我們現在正與工人委員會和客戶合作，我們將在下個季度提供進一步的更新。

Our next question comes from Josh Chan with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Josh Chan。

I guess -- I was wondering if you could talk about the relative resilience in Southern Europe versus kind of like the U.S. It sounds like that will continue into the next quarter. So I guess -- just curious your thoughts on the sustainability of that difference in performance and whether you think that could continue as we kind of go into this next part of the economic cycle?

我想 - 我想知道您是否可以談談南歐相對於美國的相對彈性，聽起來這種情況將持續到下個季度。所以我想 - 只是好奇您對這種績效差異的可持續性的看法，以及您認為隨著我們進入經濟周期的下一個階段，這種情況是否會持續下去？

Thanks, Josh. Yes. And I would say that historically, the U.S. labor market is much more dynamic than the European labor markets. They are more rigid in their structures in the U.S. contracts that we have in both Experis as well as in Manpower are short term in nature, so you can change the length of that assignment as quickly as you would like, whereas in Europe, you have more extended contracts that have to run to their scheduled end.

謝謝，喬什。是的。我想說，從歷史上看，美國勞動力市場比歐洲勞動力市場更有活力。在美國，Experis 和 Manpower 的合同結構更加嚴格，本質上都是短期合同，因此您可以根據需要盡快更改任務期限，而在歐洲，您有更多的延長合同，必須按預定期限執行。

And also don't forget, Jeff, that the downturn in Europe started in 2022. And notably on France, France never really saw a comeback from the pandemic back to the 2019 numbers that we saw, Josh. So that's sort of the explanation and we're very pleased to see the stability in France. We think the Italian market is one of the underpenetrated markets, where you could see continued increases in penetration rates. And we think that is a fantastic opportunity for us to continue to see some very profitable growth.

傑夫，也不要忘記，歐洲的經濟衰退始於 2022 年。尤其是法國，法國從未真正從疫情中恢復到我們看到的 2019 年的數據，喬希。這就是解釋，我們很高興看到法國的穩定。我們認為意大利市場是滲透率不足的市場之一，您可以看到滲透率持續上升。我們認為這對我們來說是一個絕佳的機會，可以繼續看到一些非常有利可圖的增長。

And the U.S. market goes up and comes down faster, and that is exactly what we're seeing in this cycle as well. And when the U.S. economy rebounds, and we get to the end of this, we would expect to see good opportunities for a rebound here that we would also expect to be faster on the upbound than what we would expect to see in Europe.

美國市場上漲和下跌的速度更快，這也正是我們在這個週期中看到的。當美國經濟反彈時，我們預計會在這裡看到反彈的好機會，而且我們也預計反彈速度會比我們預期的歐洲更快。

Okay. That's great. And then I guess for my follow-up, I wanted to ask about the Manpower business within the U.S. I think you guys mentioned that it saw some improvement and then seemingly softened again in Q2. Could you just talk about what you're seeing there. We're a little surprised by kind of that trajectory compared to kind of the data points that, that might be out there. So curious any color on that business?

好的。那太棒了。然後我想對於我的後續行動，我想詢問美國境內的人力業務。我想你們提到它看到了一些改善，然後在第二季度似乎再次軟化。您能談談您在那裡看到的情況嗎？與可能存在的數據點相比，我們對這種軌跡感到有點驚訝。很好奇這件事有什麼顏色嗎？

Josh, yes, I'd be happy to talk to that. And maybe just to talk about that trend. So as we exited Q1, we talked about Manpower in the U.S. running at about minus 12%. And the first quarter was the big quarter where we talked about the catch-up that the U.S. was seeing compared to what Europe was seeing much earlier in 2022. So that definitely came through very strong in the first quarter, aligned with exactly what we were seeing in manufacturing PMIs that we talked about in our prepared remarks as well.

喬什，是的，我很樂意談論這一點。也許只是為了談論這種趨勢。因此，當我們退出第一季度時，我們談到了美國的 Manpower 的運行速度約為負 12%。第一季度是一個重要的季度，我們談到了與歐洲在 2022 年早些時候看到的情況相比，美國的追趕。因此，第一季度的表現肯定非常強勁，與我們在準備好的講話中談到的製造業 PMI 中看到的情況完全一致。

So what's happened since then? So ending the first quarter with manufacturing PMIs in the high-40s, we continue to take down, and we're ending here June with a 46.0%. So the manufacturing environment continues to worsen into Q2, and we see that in those trends. And we did expect to see Manpower to reflect that into the second quarter. So we did expect to see that minus 12%, to see some additional decrease, and that's how we ended up at the minus 17%.

那麼從那以後發生了什麼？因此，第一季度結束時，製造業 PMI 處於 40 左右的高位，我們繼續下降，6 月份結束時為 46.0%。因此，進入第二季度，製造環境繼續惡化，我們從這些趨勢中看到了這一點。我們確實希望看到萬寶盛華將這一點反映到第二季度。因此，我們確實預計會出現負 12%，並出現一些額外的下降，這就是我們最終達到負 17% 的原因。

Now with that being said, we did highlight the fact that when you look at that minus 17%, it was most heaviest at the beginning of the quarter. And as we ended the quarter, we were starting to see some improvement in that rate of decline. So we'll see as we look forward to the third quarter, you can see from the guide for the U.S. overall. We're seeing for the most part, a continuation of the current trends. It might be a bit better, so we might see that on the Manpower side. But that's the way we're looking at it right now.

話雖如此，我們確實強調了一個事實，即當你看到負 17% 時，這是本季度初最嚴重的。當我們本季度結束時，我們開始看到下降率有所改善。因此，當我們展望第三季度時，您可以從美國整體指南中看到。我們看到的大部分是當前趨勢的延續。可能會好一點，所以我們可能會在人力方面看到這一點。但這就是我們現在看待它的方式。

And as we did say, we are being cautious for all the reasons that Jonas talked about with some of the dynamics that are playing out in the U.S. market right now, that does reflect our cautious stance going into the third quarter.

正如我們所說，出於喬納斯談到的美國市場目前正在發生的一些動態的所有原因，我們持謹慎態度，這確實反映了我們進入第三季度的謹慎立場。

Our next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

You talked a little bit about intra-quarter trends in the U.S. Can we get some similar comments on intra-quarter trends in some of your other major markets?

您談到了美國的季度內趨勢。我們能否對其他一些主要市場的季度內趨勢發表一些類似的評論？

Sure, Jeff. I'd be happy to talk to that. So if you look at France, I'd say the story is that our biggest revenue country, relatively stable during the quarter. So -- and that reflects a stable trend from quarter 1 to quarter 2 as well. And intra-quarter, it was about similar about that 1% organic days adjusted rate. May is always a tricky month, particularly in Europe due to the holidays. So a little lower, but I wouldn't read too much into that. I think it's mostly the holiday effect. But other than that, pretty stable. I'd say with Italy, I'd say similar, we saw maybe a little bit the year-over-year is coming into play a little bit, where maybe May and June were a tad, softer than on a days adjusted basis than what we saw in April. But overall, I'd say generally pretty consistent.

當然，傑夫。我很樂意談論這一點。因此，如果你看看法國，我會說這個故事是我們最大的收入國家，在本季度相對穩定。所以——這也反映了從第一季度到第二季度的穩定趨勢。在季度內，1% 的有機天數調整率大致相似。五月總是一個棘手的月份，尤其是在歐洲，因為有假期。所以有點低，但我不會對此進行太多解讀。我認為這主要是假期的影響。但除此之外，相當穩定。我想說的是意大利，我想說的是類似的，我們看到同比可能會稍微發揮一點作用，五月和六月可能比我們在四月看到的天數調整後的情況要軟一些。但總的來說，我想說總體上相當一致。

Talked about the U.S. And I'd say on the U.K., the U.K. on an overall basis, we're coming in on a quarter-over-quarter, very similar at that minus 12% versus Q1. During the course of the second quarter, we did see a little bit more of a pullback in the month of June compared to that overall rate. But days had a big impact, which I think once you adjust for the days element there, generally running pretty consistent, I'd say. So -- and when you look at our guidance to Q3, it's really predicting more of the same for the U.K. So there could be, and again, a bit of a cautious view. It could be a slight bit better, and we'll just have to see how that turns out.

談到美國，我想說的是英國，總體而言，英國的季度環比增長非常相似，與第一季度相比為負 12%。在第二季度期間，與總體比率相比，我們確實看到 6 月份出現了更多的回調。但日子有很大的影響，我認為一旦你調整那裡的日子元素，通常運行相當一致，我想說。因此，當您查看我們對第三季度的指導時，您會發現英國的情況確實會出現更多相同的情況，因此可能會再次出現一些謹慎的觀點。可能會好一點，我們只需要看看結果如何。

Okay. That's helpful. And if we can switch over to gross margins. I think you stated it was a little bit weaker than you expected, but it was mostly because of a lower perm. Can we focus just on the temp business from a gross margin perspective. If you could talk about bill rates and spreads. And I'm just curious, are you seeing any pushback on pricing either from competitors or from clients?

好的。這很有幫助。如果我們可以轉向毛利率。我想你說過它比你預期的要弱一些，但這主要是因為燙髮較低。我們可以從毛利率的角度只關注臨時工業務嗎？如果你能談談賬單利率和利差。我只是很好奇，您是否看到競爭對手或客戶對定價有任何抵制？

Overall, Jeff, I would say that pricing remains competitive, but rational. And the overall pricing environment, as you can tell from our staffing margin essentially holding stable is good. And I think that reflects a continued, although softer, still a continued demand for our services in the tight labor market and where companies are still looking for great talent. And I think we are seeing that as a positive indicator of about the quality of our service, the level of skill sets that we're placing with our clients, and we feel good about the pricing environment at this time.

總的來說，傑夫，我想說定價仍然具有競爭力，但很合理。從我們的人員配置利潤率基本保持穩定可以看出，整體定價環境良好。我認為，這反映出在緊張的勞動力市場以及企業仍在尋找優秀人才的情況下，對我們的服務的需求雖然有所疲軟，但仍然持續存在。我認為我們將其視為我們服務質量、我們為客戶提供的技能水平的積極指標，而且我們對目前的定價環境感覺良好。

Our next question comes from Tobey Sommer with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Tobey Sommer。

And I wanted to ask a question about your outsourcing businesses, RPO, MSP, et cetera. Are you -- are clients responding from this slower economic period in the same way they have in the past to sort of look at their internal cost structures and maybe choose to outsource more. I understand that sales may not be great right now because hiring activity is lower. But in terms of sort of the sales and revenue opportunity, maybe you could speak to that.

我想問一個關於你們的外包業務、RPO、MSP 等的問題。您是否——客戶是否會像過去一樣，在經濟放緩時期做出反應，審視其內部成本結構，並可能選擇更多外包。我知道現在的銷售情況可能不太好，因為招聘活動較少。但就銷售和收入機會而言，也許你可以談談這一點。

Well, I think what tends to happen is when things are going well for a long time, companies consider in-sourcing and taking things back in-house, and then you have an economic cycle that evolves and all of the recruiters they thought they needed for their own needs, suddenly are a lot less productive. And that is clearly the value proposition that our RPO offering addresses. So whilst we're seeing the activity today getting impacted by the hiring levels from the perm recruitment side on the RPO side, from a business model and value proposition perspective, we feel very good about the opportunities that we have in RPO because when hiring starts up again, and you need to increase your recruiters from 10 to 100, we can do that very, very quickly.

嗯，我認為往往會發生的情況是，當事情長期進展順利時，公司考慮內包並將東西帶回內部，然後經濟周期不斷發展，他們認為滿足自己需求所需的所有招聘人員的生產力突然大幅下降。這顯然就是我們的 RPO 產品所解決的價值主張。因此，雖然我們看到今天的活動受到 RPO 方面永久招聘方面的招聘水平的影響，但從商業模式和價值主張的角度來看，我們對 RPO 中的機會感到非常滿意，因為當招聘再次開始時，您需要將招聘人員從 10 名增加到 100 名，我們可以非常非常快地做到這一點。

And our customers appreciate the flexibility, both operational and strategic flexibility that provides to them in one particular country or in our case across the world to one organization. And really, the same is true from an MSP perspective. We feel very good about our offering there. And the evolution that we've seen with our clients in our MSP business is really the value of the insights that we derive from the significant data sets that we look at and advise our clients on how they should think about their workforce.

我們的客戶非常欣賞在某一特定國家或在我們的情況下為世界各地的一個組織提供的靈活性，包括運營和戰略靈活性。事實上，從 MSP 的角度來看也是如此。我們對我們在那裡提供的服務感覺非常好。我們在 MSP 業務中與客戶一起看到的演變實際上是我們從重要數據集中得出的見解的價值，我們查看這些數據集並就如何看待他們的員工提供建議。

And if you look at the expansion of our offerings beyond temporary staffing or IT resourcing into statement of work, and beyond from there, you can really see that our clients are leaning into this offering, and we are able to expand our products and services that we provide within the MSP umbrella. So in both of these cases, we feel really good that we can address non-core activities for many corporations in a better way than they can themselves and that we provide them with the operational and strategic flexibility to boot. So it is a tougher time for the RPO business today as we would expect, but we feel really good about the opportunity that lies ahead once the market stabilizes and starts to go the other way.

如果您看看我們的產品範圍從臨時人員配備或 IT 資源到工作說明書的擴展，您可以真正看到我們的客戶正在傾向於此產品，並且我們能夠擴展我們在 MSP 保護傘內提供的產品和服務。因此，在這兩種情況下，我們感到非常高興，因為我們能夠以比許多公司本身更好的方式解決許多公司的非核心活動，並且我們為他們提供了運營和戰略靈活性。因此，正如我們所預期的那樣，對於 RPO 業務來說，今天是一個更加艱難的時期，但一旦市場穩定並開始走向相反的方向，我們對未來的機會感到非常滿意。

And if I could ask a question about Right Management. What do your most forward-looking KPIs tell you, and how do they inform you on the risk of further or more widespread layoffs?

如果我可以問一個關於正確管理的問題。您最具前瞻性的關鍵績效指標告訴您什麼？它們如何告知您進一步或更廣泛裁員的風險？

I would say that at the current time, the industry verticals that we're seeing pressure on from an enterprise perspective in our Experis and in Manpower are the same industry verticals, where we're seeing the opportunities in Right Management. So I would not characterize our outplacement business to be strong because of broad-based layoffs. That is not the case.

我想說的是，目前，我們在 Experis 和 Manpower 中從企業角度看到的壓力與我們在 Right Management 中看到機會的垂直行業是相同的。因此，我不會因為廣泛的裁員而將我們的再就業業務描述為強勁。事實並非如此。

It is industry specific. It is in certain geographies, and that is what we're seeing from a Right Management business. And remember that last year, amongst the hiring boom is, of course, also when we saw very low Right Management or placement activity. So the strength that we're seeing today is really from the same sectors that are feeling the pressure on the enterprise side for Manpower and Experis and notably in the U.S. and the U.K., but it's not broad-based.

這是行業特定的。這是在某些地區，這就是我們從正確管理業務中看到的情況。請記住，去年，在招聘熱潮中，當然，我們也看到了非常低的正確管理或安置活動。因此，我們今天看到的力量實際上來自那些感受到 Manpower 和 Experis 企業方面壓力的行業，特別是在美國和英國，但基礎並不廣泛。

Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

I think you obviously talked about kind of pricing what it's doing now and it seems to be behaving -- everybody seems to be behaving fairly well. I'm wondering when you look at previous downturns or previous contractions, when does pricing become an issue? Do you see your competitors waiting until we're fairly into the contraction? I'm just wondering how in the past it's played out?

我認為你顯然談到了它現在正在做的事情的定價，而且它似乎表現得很好——每個人似乎都表現得相當好。我想知道，當您回顧之前的經濟衰退或收縮時，定價何時會成為問題？您是否看到您的競爭對手正在等待，直到我們完全進入收縮狀態？我只是想知道過去是怎麼玩的？

Well, I think it very much depends on the depth of any economic cycle. And as we mentioned early on, in this call as well as in our last quarter call, all of the data that we're looking at inside our company and the industry data is indicative of a -- but we will characterize as a garden variety recession, but we're not economists. It could be a technical recession. It could be an economic slowdown. Whatever it is, our industry is operating at a moderate economic downturn level.

嗯，我認為這在很大程度上取決於任何經濟周期的深度。正如我們早些時候提到的，在這次電話會議以及上個季度的電話會議中，我們在公司內部查看的所有數據和行業數據都表明——但我們將其描述為普通衰退，但我們不是經濟學家。這可能是一次技術性衰退。這可能是經濟放緩。不管怎樣，我們的行業正處於經濟適度下滑的水平。

And if you combine that with very strong and resilient labor markets that so far haven't shown any sign from a broad perspective of softening in a material way, we feel very good about our ability to maintain pricing levels because access to talent is so important and labor markets are tight and talent shortages abound. And if there was a deeper recession, that would, of course, be a time when you could think about whether pricing would be impacted as the market would contract significantly, and then competitors would try to maintain share and compete on price.

如果將其與非常強勁和有彈性的勞動力市場結合起來，從廣泛的角度來看，迄今為止尚未顯示出任何實質性軟化的跡象，我們對維持價格水平的能力感到非常滿意，因為獲得人才非常重要，而勞動力市場緊張，人才短缺普遍存在。如果出現更嚴重的衰退，那麼當然，你可以考慮定價是否會受到影響，因為市場將大幅收縮，然後競爭對手會試圖保持份額並在價格上競爭。

But we're certainly not seeing that today. The fundamental drivers of the strength of the labor market, if you look at demographics, if you look at technological change, if you look at our move up into higher skill sets, both in Experis and in Manpower through our specialization initiatives tend to -- it go for profiles that are in demand today and will be an even greater demand into the future, and that should provide us with additional pricing strength that could offset any other pricing pressure. But at this point, as I mentioned earlier, we believe that pricing is rational, but it is always a very competitive market. So we are competing for every deal, but the overall demand is still positive from a pricing perspective.

但我們今天肯定不會看到這種情況。勞動力市場實力的基本驅動力，如果你看看人口統計數據，如果你看看技術變革，如果你看看我們通過我們的專業化計劃向Experis和Manpower領域的更高技能的發展，往往是——它會追求今天的需求，並且將來會有更大的需求，這應該為我們提供額外的定價優勢，可以抵消任何其他定價壓力。但在這一點上，正如我之前提到的，我們認為定價是理性的，但它始終是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。因此，我們正在爭奪每筆交易，但從定價角度來看，總體需求仍然是積極的。

And then, Jack, on the French business tax, I think when we've talked in the past or you stated that kind of the next data point is September of this year, is that still accurate? Or has anything changed for that?

然後，傑克，關於法國營業稅，我想當我們過去談論過或者你說下一個數據點是今年 9 月時，這仍然準確嗎？或者有什麼改變嗎？

Yes, Kartik. Yes, that's still accurate. I think at this point, and when we see the preliminary budget for next year, that usually comes out mid-September, that's when we expect to see more color. We do know that President Macron continues to have very strong feelings that the French business tax, the repeal of the French business tax, this final component is very important to the future of the competitiveness of France.

是的，卡提克。是的，這仍然是準確的。我認為在這一點上，當我們看到明年的初步預算時，通常會在九月中旬公佈，那時我們預計會看到更多的色彩。我們確實知道，馬克龍總統仍然對法國營業稅抱有非常強烈的感情，廢除法國營業稅，這最後一個組成部分對法國未來的競爭力非常重要。

So that makes us feel good that there's a very good chance that, that will go through as planned. But we really won't know until to confirm it until we see it in the preliminary budget. And so we'll know in a couple of months. And as we said before, when that happens, that is a significant benefit for us that will improve our global effective rate by another 1.5% downwards. So we're looking forward to that and look forward to giving an update on that on our next earnings call.

這讓我們感覺很好，很有可能按計劃進行。但直到我們在初步預算中看到它之後，我們才真正知道這一點。幾個月後我們就會知道。正如我們之前所說，當這種情況發生時，這對我們來說是一個重大好處，將使我們的全球有效率再下降 1.5%。因此，我們對此充滿期待，並期待在下一次財報電話會議上提供最新情況。

Our next question comes from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自杰弗里斯的斯蒂芬妮摩爾。

I was sort of wondering maybe talk a little bit about what you're saying in your Asia Pacific segment or Asia Pacific, Middle East, it seems to be one area, where there's a little bit more strength compared to the other regions. So any color there would be helpful?

我有點想知道也許可以談談您在亞太地區或亞太地區、中東地區所說的內容，這似乎是一個地區，與其他地區相比，這裡的實力更強一些。那麼任何顏色都會有幫助嗎？

Yes. Sure, Stephanie. Yes, we are seeing some strength, both in Asia Pac and also in Latin America. They are regions where we have very strong market positions. The labor markets are also resilient in those areas. And if we specifically talked about Asia Pacific. In Japan, our business there has just concluded the 35th consecutive quarter of strong growth. We feel very good about our Japanese business. And the next 2 businesses in terms of size, India and Australia are also performing well. We're rebalancing our client mix there to some degree, but we are seeing good profitability levels there in those markets.

是的。當然，斯蒂芬妮。是的，我們在亞太地區和拉丁美洲看到了一些實力。在這些地區，我們擁有非常強大的市場地位。這些地區的勞動力市場也具有彈性。如果我們特別談論亞太地區。在日本，我們的業務剛剛結束了連續 35 個季度的強勁增長。我們對我們的日本業務感覺非常好。從規模來看，接下來的兩個企業印度和澳大利亞也表現良好。我們正在某種程度上重新平衡我們的客戶組合，但我們看到這些市場的盈利水平良好。

So we feel very good about our footprint in Asia Pac and frankly, also in Latin America, where we have very strong positions in markets that are demographically strong. They are great locations for near-shoring as it relates to North American activities. And of course, Asia and India, in particular, has a very strong position in terms of IT resources, both onshore, but also offshore resources that we benefit from an experience perspective. So we're very pleased with the performance that we have in Asia Pac and in Latin America, given the broader picture.

因此，我們對我們在亞太地區的足跡感到非常滿意，坦率地說，在拉丁美洲也是如此，我們在人口眾多的市場中擁有非常強大的地位。它們是近岸的絕佳地點，因為它與北美活動相關。當然，特別是亞洲和印度在 IT 資源方面擁有非常強大的地位，無論是在岸還是離岸資源，我們都從經驗的角度受益。因此，從更廣泛的角度來看，我們對亞太地區和拉丁美洲的表現非常滿意。

Stephanie, I would just add on the guide for APME, you can see -- on the revenue side, based on what Jonas mentioned and some of the mix-related changes we're making in some of the tighter margin staffing margin countries like India and Australia, that's impacting the revenue trend. But the bottom line is still very strong for APME, and we expect that to continue to be a stable contributor on OUP dollars into the third quarter.

斯蒂芬妮，我只想補充一下 APME 的指南，你可以看到——在收入方面，根據喬納斯提到的內容以及我們在印度和澳大利亞等一些利潤率較緊的國家/地區所做的一些與組合相關的變化，這正在影響收入趨勢。但 APME 的利潤仍然非常強勁，我們預計這將繼續成為第三季度 OUP 美元的穩定貢獻者。

Great. And then just lastly for me. As you look at your third quarter outlook, could you maybe talk a little bit about some of the puts and takes embedded within your gross margin guidance?

偉大的。最後對我來說。當您展望第三季度前景時，您能否談談毛利率指導中包含的一些看跌期權和看跌期權？

I'd be happy to, Stephanie. So I think it's actually pretty straightforward, when you consider what happened in the second quarter. So I think in our prepared comments and in our walk, you can see that perm recruitments really was the big swing factor in the second quarter. So perm came off a bit more than we expected in the second quarter. That's why we had a bit more pressure on the GP margin.

我很樂意，斯蒂芬妮。所以我認為，當你考慮第二季度發生的事情時，這實際上非常簡單。因此，我認為在我們準備好的評論和我們的走訪中，您可以看到燙髮招聘確實是第二季度的重大波動因素。因此，第二季度燙髮的銷量比我們預期的要多一些。這就是為什麼我們對毛利的壓力更大。

With that being said, 17.8% is still holding up fairly well in the current environment, so down 40 bps going into the third quarter, it's really that continuation of perm. So we are taking a bit of a cautious stance anticipating that perm came off a little bit more than we expected in Q2. So we're anticipating that perm is going to continue to come off a bit more into Q3.

話雖如此，17.8% 在當前環境下仍然保持得相當好，因此進入第三季度下降了 40 個基點，這實際上是 perm 的延續。因此，我們採取謹慎的立場，預計第二季度的燙髮效果會比我們預期的要多一些。因此，我們預計燙髮將在第三季度繼續下降。

That's really what's driving the margin change. So sequentially, we go from that 17.8% to 17.4% at the midpoint. And that really is just perm continuing to run off. We can -- just based on the conversation we just had, and Jonas gave a lot of color on staffing margin, staffing margin is continuing to hold up very well, and that is in our forecast for the third quarter. And I think the one item that's been helpful to offset the pressure on perm is Right Management. So we are seeing that. You can see it in the GP bridge, and we expect Right Management to continue to have positive trends into the third quarter as well, which will help offset -- partially offset some of that perm pressure that we're anticipating.

這確實是推動利潤率變化的原因。因此，我們依次從 17.8% 升至中點的 17.4%。這確實只是燙髮繼續流失。我們可以——根據我們剛剛進行的對話，喬納斯對人員配置利潤率給出了很多顏色，人員配置利潤率繼續保持良好狀態，這是我們對第三季度的預測。我認為有助於抵消燙髮壓力的一項是正確的管理。所以我們正在看到這一點。您可以在 GP 橋中看到這一點，我們預計 Right Management 在第三季度也將繼續呈現積極趨勢，這將有助於抵消——部分抵消我們預期的部分永久壓力。

Our next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬納夫帕特奈克。

This is Princy Thomas on for Manav. Can you assess where you are in regards to the investments made to date around digitization, the impact on the business and what's to come. Specifically, I know PowerSuite cloud back office is supposed to accelerate growth and productivity. I want to just get ideas of impacts around Gen AI, and how Man is positioned to benefit with the New Human Age lab?

我是馬納夫的普林西·托馬斯。您能否評估一下您迄今為止在數字化方面所做的投資、對業務的影響以及未來的發展情況？具體來說，我知道 PowerSuite 雲後台應該能夠加速增長和提高生產力。我只想了解有關人工智能的影響的想法，以及人類如何從新人類時代實驗室中受益？

Sure. Yes. No, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, towards the end of this year, we will have substantially all of our major markets on our global PowerSuite platform. And so where that brings us in our digitization strategy is that we have common websites across the world in all of our major markets. We have the same front office platform in all of our major markets. We're working on back-office cloud-enabled applications as well, so that we are creating a global back office infrastructure also.

當然。是的。不，正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的，到今年年底，我們的全球 PowerSuite 平台上幾乎所有主要市場都將覆蓋。因此，我們數字化戰略的重點是我們在全球所有主要市場都擁有通用網站。我們在所有主要市場都擁有相同的前台平台。我們也在開發支持雲的後台應用程序，因此我們也在創建一個全球後台基礎設施。

And those are investments that we've been making over a number of years, and the implementations have gone very well. It's difficult in the service business, where you operate in so many different countries and operating environments to implement one application suite that is then being deployed at scale. We feel very good about the work that we've done here. But most importantly, we feel very good about the opportunities that this gives us both to generate data and insights to drive accelerated innovation, but driving growth initiatives as well as driving productivity through recruiter efficiency and having the best-of-breed tools for our recruiters and our frontline people should really give us some very good growth opportunities going forward.

這些是我們多年來一直進行的投資，並且實施進展順利。在服務行業中，您在許多不同的國家/地區和操作環境中運營，實施一套應用程序套件並進行大規模部署是很困難的。我們對在這裡所做的工作感覺非常好。但最重要的是，我們感到非常高興，這為我們提供了生成數據和見解以推動加速創新的機會，但推動增長計劃以及通過招聘人員效率提高生產力以及為我們的招聘人員和一線人員提供同類最佳的工具確實應該為我們帶來一些非常好的增長機會。

But Jack, maybe you want to give a little bit more color in terms of the size of the investments and where we are in the cycle of those investments.

但是傑克，也許你想在投資規模以及我們在這些投資週期中所處的位置方面提供更多的信息。

Yes. No, we'd be happy to. Yes, Princy, I would say we feel really good about how those investments are paying off for us so far. So there is -- we've been talking about the front office implementation for the last couple of years in those markets, where we've implemented early. We then move into adoption of the recruiters, where we look at the adoption KPIs, and we feel really good about the progress we're making, and we know that's going to increase our recruiter productivity, and we're seeing that in the markets where we've implemented early.

是的。不，我們很樂意這樣做。是的，普林西，我想說的是，我們對迄今為止這些投資為我們帶來的回報感到非常滿意。因此，過去幾年我們一直在討論這些市場的前台實施，我們很早就在這些市場實施了。然後，我們開始採用招聘人員，我們會查看採用 KPI，我們對我們所取得的進展感到非常滿意，我們知道這將提高我們的招聘人員的生產力，並且我們在我們早期實施的市場中看到了這一點。

So we feel good about the return on that investment. You'll see that clearly in a more pronounced way when we get more operational volume and operational leverage back into the business. And typically, as Jonas said on that front office, we're at the very end of that process by the end of 2023 with 75% majority of our business on that front office system. As we look at across, we're also doing implementations in other parts of the business. The back office is something you've heard me talk about in the past as well, another cloud-enabled industry-leading platform that we're in the process of putting in, going live on 5 countries. We continue very phased rollouts there.

因此，我們對這項投資的回報感到滿意。當我們將更多的運營量和運營槓桿重新投入到業務中時，您會以更明顯的方式清楚地看到這一點。通常，正如 Jonas 在前台系統中所說，到 2023 年底，我們將處於該流程的最後階段，我們 75% 的大部分業務都在前台系統上進行。縱觀全局，我們也在業務的其他部分進行實施。您過去也曾聽我談論過後台，這是另一個支持雲的行業領先平台，我們正在部署該平台，並在 5 個國家/地區上線。我們繼續在那里分階段推出。

And we feel really good about the additional efficiency that, that's going to give us into the future as well. So that will continue for this year, and we're going to move more from the front office to more waves of back office, which will continue through '24 and '25. And we'll start to see the benefit of that really come through nicely in our operational efficiency as we get into '24 and move forward. And you'll see it in the front office more immediately, but you'll see it in the back office metrics as we move more from the end of '24 into '25. So a little color on timing there. And I think that covers the main area that you were looking for.

我們對額外的效率感到非常滿意，這也將為我們帶來未來。今年這種情況將持續下去，我們將把更多的工作從前台轉移到更多的後台，這將持續到 24 年和 25 年。當我們進入 24 世紀並繼續前進時，我們將開始看到它真正在我們的運營效率方面帶來的好處。您會立即在前台看到它，但隨著我們從 24 年底進入 25 年，您會在後台指標中看到它。所以在時間上有一點色彩。我認為這涵蓋了您正在尋找的主要領域。

Yes, it does. And then for my follow-up, can you provide what you're seeing is the keep up and takes for your regional performance and outlook, specifically France. But can you also unpack by month for the quarter, and what you've been seeing for the first 3 weeks of July?

是的，它確實。然後，對於我的後續行動，您能否提供您所看到的地區績效和前景的最新情況和需要，特別是法國。但您能否按月分析該季度的情況以及 7 月前 3 週的情況？

Yes. So what I'd say, Princy, we're a little short on time. We're actually trying to get to a couple of other quick questions. What I would say is, I think I talked to the intra-quarter previously from one of the earlier questions, and we covered that off. I think in terms of the guide overall, I think the main takeaway is pretty consistent from a revenue trend perspective. We talked about that organic days adjusted trend into Q3 being at minus 3.5%, pretty much in line with what we just saw, really what that reflects is the adjustment for Q2 for the U.S. market trend and the improvement in France from what we guided in Q2, continuing into the third quarter.

是的。所以我要說的是，普林西，我們的時間有點緊迫。我們實際上正在嘗試回答其他幾個簡單的問題。我想說的是，我想我之前曾在之前的一個問題中談到過季度內的情況，我們已經解決了這個問題。我認為就總體指南而言，我認為從收入趨勢的角度來看，主要內容是相當一致的。我們談到第三季度的有機天數調整趨勢為-3.5%，與我們剛剛看到的情況基本一致，這實際上反映了美國市場趨勢對第二季度的調整以及法國市場相對於我們第二季度指導的改善，並持續到第三季度。

So stable trends for the most part, across a lot of our major markets, and again, we were cautious in that outlook. So I would say that's the main item. I think as you think about the third quarter to your last point, is we do know in Europe, August is always a lower activity month with the holidays, and we anticipate coming out of August into September is always a bit difficult to predict, depending on how Europe comes back from the holidays from a manufacturing perspective. But right now, we're anticipating ongoing stability in that guide. Again, being cautious on an overall basis, but that's a little more color on what we're expecting into the third quarter.

在我們的許多主要市場中，大部分趨勢都是穩定的，我們對這一前景再次持謹慎態度。所以我想說這是主要項目。我認為，當你思考第三季度的最後一點時，我們確實知道在歐洲，八月總是假期活動較低的月份，我們預計從八月到九月總是有點難以預測，這取決於歐洲從製造業的角度如何從假期中恢復過來。但現在，我們預計該指南將持續穩定。再次強調，總體上要保持謹慎，但這比我們對第三季度的預期更具有色彩。

Our next question comes from Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安德魯·斯坦納曼。

This is Stephanie Yee stepping in for Andrew. I wanted to clarify your comments earlier about the staffing industry already being in a garden variety recession, I just want to clarify whether you're speaking just to perm activity as opposed to temporary staffing because temporary staffing hours are down, but pricing, as you mentioned earlier, is still holding up very well. So it's supporting the overall revenue growth, I guess, for the industry and for manpower. So just clarity on whether temporary staffing is also in what you would characterize as a garden-variety recession at this point?

這是斯蒂芬妮·易 (Stephanie Yee) 接替安德魯 (Andrew)。我想澄清你之前關於人力資源行業已經陷入普通衰退的評論，我只是想澄清你所說的是否只是燙髮活動而不是臨時員工，因為臨時員工的工作時間減少了，但正如你之前提到的，定價仍然保持得很好。因此，我想，它支持了行業和人力資源的整體收入增長。那麼，請澄清一下，目前臨時員工是否也屬於您所說的普通衰退？

I would say that my statement was related to the temp data that you see from [Prism] in France, the U.S., the U.K., Netherlands, Sweden, there are very few markets that you can point at in Europe and in the U.S. where you're not seeing us operate in a much softer environment, which would be the equivalent of what we in the past would have expected to see in this garden variety recession description that I'll -- that I'm using just to give you a sense of a more shallow economic cycle than what we've seen in the last two recessions, one generated by the pandemic, short-lived and driven by a pandemic and the other one obviously being a great recession.

我想說的是，我的聲明與你從法國、美國、英國、荷蘭、瑞典的[Pri​​sm]看到的臨時數據有關，在歐洲和美國，你可以指出的市場很少，你沒有看到我們在一個更加疲軟的環境中運作，這相當於我們過去在這個普通的衰退描述中所期望看到的情況，我將--我只是為了讓你感覺到比我們的經濟周期更淺的經濟周期。在過去的兩次衰退中，一次是由大流行引發的、短暫的、由大流行驅動的，另一次顯然是一場嚴重的衰退。

But in the past, when we've seen shorter or shallower economic cycle downturns, these levels of activities that the industry data is reflecting for temporary staffing would be equivalent to what was then eventually a garden variety recession, if you allow me that term. And sorry for the lack of precision on what exactly a garden-variety recession is. But it is shallower than what we've seen in the last couple of recessions, put it that way.

但在過去，當我們看到較短或較淺的經濟周期衰退時，行業數據所反映的臨時人員的活動水平將相當於最終的普通衰退（如果你允許我用這個詞）。對於普通衰退到底是什麼缺乏精確性，我們深表歉意。但這麼說吧，它比我們在過去幾次衰退中看到的要淺。

Okay. Okay. I appreciate that. I'm sorry, just to take that maybe just extrapolate a step further. So the U.S. economy, for example, is, I guess, we wouldn't necessarily characterize that as being in a garden-variety recession because the labor market, the unemployment rate is still very low. So if the economy or in a recession, safe to say that the staffing industry would see probably further decline?

好的。好的。我很感激。抱歉，只是想進一步推斷一下。以美國經濟為例，我想，我們不一定會將其描述為普通衰退，因為勞動力市場、失業率仍然很低。那麼，如果經濟或陷入衰退，可以肯定地說，人力資源行業可能會進一步下滑嗎？

As you know, our industry tends to be a leading indicator of what is then to come. We are often concurrent to an economic cycle, we later on find out was, in fact, an economic slowdown, although not apparent as it is the statistics and all of the rest are lagging the economy, so -- and so our labor markets for that matter. But I think your point being that we are seeing a strong resilient labor market is exactly the reason why we would expect, for instance, perm recruitment to come down a little bit further because that strong labor market is in many markets, one of the contributing factors to continued high inflation.

如您所知，我們的行業往往是未來發展的領先指標。我們經常與經濟周期同時發生，後來我們發現實際上是經濟放緩，儘管並不明顯，因為統計數據和其他所有因素都落後於經濟，因此我們的勞動力市場也如此。但我認為你的觀點是，我們看到強勁的彈性勞動力市場正是我們預計燙髮招聘會進一步下降的原因，因為許多市場都有強勁的勞動力市場，這是持續高通脹的因素之一。

So we would expect labor -- the broader labor market eventually to reflect what we, as a temporary staffing industry are seeing in U.S. and Europe just as we would in any normal sector. And then ultimately, we would also expect our industry to rebound before the labor market than generally rebounds because we are also a leading indicator of a rebound. So that's how we're thinking about it. And I hope I've managed to clarify how we're seeing it from our business perspective.

因此，我們預計勞動力——更廣泛的勞動力市場最終將反映我們作為臨時工行業在美國和歐洲所看到的情況，就像我們在任何正常部門所看到的那樣。最終，我們還預計我們的行業將在勞動力市場普遍反彈之前反彈，因為我們也是反彈的領先指標。這就是我們的想法。我希望我已經設法澄清我們如何從業務角度看待它。

Thank you. That's all the time we have for questions today. Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

謝謝。這就是我們今天提問的全部時間。感謝您的參與。這確實結束了程序，您現在可以斷開連接。大家，祝你有美好的一天。