ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to ManpowerGroup Fourth Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. And now I'll turn the call over to ManpowerGroup Chairman and CEO, Jonas Prising. Sir, you may begin.

歡迎來到萬寶盛華第四季度收益結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）此通話將被錄音。如果您有異議，請此時斷開連接。現在我將把電話轉給 ManpowerGroup 董事長兼首席執行官 Jonas Prising。先生，您可以開始了。

Welcome to the fourth quarter conference call for 2022. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jack McGinnis is with me today. For your convenience, we have included our prepared remarks within the Investor Relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com. I'll start by going through some of the highlights of the quarter, and Jack will go through the fourth quarter results and guidance for the first quarter of 2023. I'll then share some concluding thoughts before we start our Q&A session.

歡迎來到 2022 年第四季度電話會議。我們的首席財務官 Jack McGinnis 今天和我在一起。為方便起見，我們已將準備好的評論包含在我們網站 manpowergroup.com 的投資者關係部分。我將首先介紹本季度的一些亮點，傑克將介紹第四季度的業績和 2023 年第一季度的指導意見。然後，在我們開始問答環節之前，我將分享一些總結性想法。

Jack will now cover the safe harbor language.

傑克現在將介紹安全港語言。

Good morning, everyone. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, including statements concerning economic and geopolitical uncertainty, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

大家，早安。本次電話會議包括前瞻性陳述，包括有關經濟和地緣政治不確定性的陳述，這些陳述受已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響。這些陳述基於管理層當前的期望或信念。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Slide 2 of our earnings release presentation further identifies forward-looking statements made in this call and factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially and information regarding reconciliation of non-GAAP measures.

我們的收益發布演示文稿的幻燈片 2 進一步確定了本次電話會議中做出的前瞻性陳述和可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素，以及有關非 GAAP 措施對賬的信息。

Thanks, Jack. Over the last three weeks, I spent time with our leadership teams across the world for annual strategic road shows as well as with clients in Europe before attending the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland. From these conversations with our teams, our clients and global leaders, we get insights on the current environment and near-term outlook. This complements our own real-time business data on the current environment and forward-looking research.

謝謝，傑克。在過去的三周里，在參加在瑞士達沃斯舉行的世界經濟論壇年會之前，我與我們在世界各地的領導團隊一起進行了年度戰略路演，並與歐洲的客戶進行了交流。通過與我們的團隊、客戶和全球領導者的這些對話，我們獲得了對當前環境和近期前景的見解。這補充了我們自己關於當前環境和前瞻性研究的實時業務數據。

The economic headwinds and increased caution by employers due to an uncertain economic outlook are resulting in softening hiring behaviors. We see this through extended recruiting and sales cycles and softer order flow with employees in certain sectors as they are exercising more caution in their demand for contingent and permanent recruitment of talent. That said, they're also focused on holding on to business-critical talent while adding headcount for in-demand skills whether that is supply chain workers or highly skilled professional talent. And as a result, labor markets remain strong overall, and we still see good order flow and opportunities in various markets and brands.

由於經濟前景不明朗，經濟逆風和雇主更加謹慎，導致招聘行為軟化。我們通過延長招聘和銷售週期以及某些部門員工的訂單流減少來看到這一點，因為他們在對臨時和永久招聘人才的需求上更加謹慎。也就是說，他們還專注於留住關鍵業務人才，同時增加所需技能的人數，無論是供應鏈工人還是高技能專業人才。因此，勞動力市場總體保持強勁，我們仍然看到各個市場和品牌的良好訂單流和機會。

Turning to our financial results. In the fourth quarter, revenue was $4.8 billion, down 1% year-over-year in constant currency. Our reported EBITDA for the quarter was $110 million. Adjusting for the U.S. acquisition integration costs, restructuring costs and other special items, which we will cover in the financial review, EBITDA was $167 million. representing a flat trend in constant currency year-over-year. Reported EBITDA margin was 2.3% and adjusted EBITDA margin was 3.5%.

轉向我們的財務業績。第四季度收入為 48 億美元，按固定匯率計算同比下降 1%。我們報告的本季度 EBITDA 為 1.1 億美元。調整我們將在財務審查中涵蓋的美國收購整合成本、重組成本和其他特殊項目後，EBITDA 為 1.67 億美元。代表固定貨幣同比的持平趨勢。報告的 EBITDA 利潤率為 2.3%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 3.5%。

Earnings per diluted share was $0.95 on a reported basis and $2.08 on an adjusted basis. Adjusted earnings per share increased 8% year-over-year in constant currency.

報告基礎上的每股攤薄收益為 0.95 美元，調整後每股收益為 2.08 美元。按固定匯率計算，調整後每股收益同比增長 8%。

Turning to the full year results for a few moments. Reported earnings per share for the year was $7.08. As adjusted, earnings per share was $8.52 and represented a constant currency increase of 31%. Revenues for the year increased 5% in constant currency to $19.8 billion and reported EBITDA was $619 million. As adjusted, EBITDA was $698 million, which represented a 22% constant currency increase year-over-year.

暫時轉向全年業績。報告的當年每股收益為 7.08 美元。經調整後，每股收益為 8.52 美元，按匯率計算持續增長 31%。按固定匯率計算，全年收入增長 5% 至 198 億美元，報告的 EBITDA 為 6.19 億美元。經調整後，EBITDA 為 6.98 億美元，按固定匯率計算同比增長 22%。

In the fourth quarter, we experienced softening in demand in some sectors and markets, especially in the U.S. and Europe. Our own quarterly forward-looking ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey of approximately 40,000 employers in more than 40 countries, which was conducted in November, indicates that good hiring momentum is expected to continue for Q1 2023, especially in IT, finance, Energy and Life Sciences.

在第四季度，我們經歷了一些行業和市場的需求疲軟，尤其是在美國和歐洲。我們自己的季度前瞻性萬寶盛華就業前景調查於 11 月對 40 多個國家的約 40,000 名雇主進行，表明良好的招聘勢頭預計將在 2023 年第一季度繼續，尤其是在 IT、金融、能源和生命科學領域。

With softening hiring intent emerging in Europe and, to a lesser extent, in the U.S., both weaker in hiring intent quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. And while the headlines may be dominated by tech company layoffs, we see this more as a recalibration of their workforces as a result of bullish hiring post-pandemic.

隨著歐洲招聘意向的減弱以及美國的招聘意向減弱（程度較輕），招聘意向環比和同比均有所減弱。雖然頭條新聞可能主要是科技公司裁員，但我們認為這更多是由於大流行後看漲的招聘而重新調整他們的勞動力。

In the wider spectrum of all industries, we're seeing more companies begin to tap the brakes while others had their foot hovering above the brake pedal. And even in this more cautious environment, there remain areas of good demand for our services, such as IT skills within our Experis business, higher-margin skills with our Manpower business RPO, MSP and Right Management, and we're focused on delivering into these market opportunities. I'll now turn it over to Jack to take you through the results.

在更廣泛的所有行業中，我們看到越來越多的公司開始踩剎車，而其他公司則將腳懸停在製動踏板上方。即使在這種更加謹慎的環境中，仍然存在對我們服務的良好需求領域，例如我們的 Experis 業務中的 IT 技能、我們的人力業務 RPO、MSP 和 Right Management 的高利潤技能，我們專注於交付到這些市場機會。我現在將其轉交給傑克，讓您了解結果。

Thanks, Jonas. Going back to the quarterly results on Slide 3, revenues in the fourth quarter came in at the low-end of our constant currency guidance range. Gross profit margin came in at the mid-point of our guidance range. As adjusted, EBITA was $167 million, flat in constant currency compared to the Prior year period. As adjusted, EBITA margin was 3.5% and came in just Below our guidance range and was flat year over year.

謝謝，喬納斯。回到幻燈片 3 的季度業績，第四季度的收入處於我們不變貨幣指導範圍的低端。毛利率處於我們指導範圍的中點。經調整後，EBITA 為 1.67 億美元，與去年同期相比持平。調整後，EBITA 利潤率為 3.5%，略低於我們的指導範圍，同比持平。

Due to the strengthening of the dollar, year over year foreign currency Movements continued to have a significant impact on our results. It is Important to note that our businesses operate in local currencies and, as a Result, foreign currency translation does not impact cash flow activity within Our businesses and is largely an accounting item based on reporting Translation into U.S. dollars. Foreign currency translation drove a 10% swing Between the U.S. dollar reported revenue trend and the constant currency related growth rate .

由於美元走強，年復一年的外匯變動繼續對我們的業績產生重大影響。重要的是要注意，我們的業務以當地貨幣運營，因此，外幣換算不會影響我們業務中的現金流量活動，並且主要是基於報告換算成美元的會計項目。外幣換算導緻美元報告的收入趨勢與恆定貨幣相關增長率之間出現 10% 的波動。

After adjusting for the negative impact of foreign Exchange rates, our constant currency revenue decreased 1%. Due to the Impact of net dispositions decreasing revenue about 0.5% and fewer Billing days, organic days-adjusted revenue was flat in the quarter compared To our guidance of plus 2% at the midpoint. The lower revenue trend reflected A deteriorating environment during the fourth quarter particularly across Europe and North America.

在調整匯率的負面影響後，我們的固定貨幣收入下降了 1%。由於淨處置收入減少約 0.5% 和計費天數減少的影響，本季度有機天數調整後收入持平，而我們的中點指引為增長 2%。較低的收入趨勢反映了第四季度環境的惡化，尤其是在歐洲和北美。

Turning to the EPS bridge on Slide 5. Reported earnings per share was $0.95, which included $1.13 related to restructuring costs. Final integration costs from U.S. Experis acquisition and other special items consisting of a loss on the sale of our Hungary business and noncash charges consisting of goodwill impairment and pension settlement costs. Excluding the restructuring costs and other special items, adjusted EPS was $2.08.

轉向幻燈片 5 上的 EPS 橋樑。報告的每股收益為 0.95 美元，其中包括與重組成本相關的 1.13 美元。來自美國 Experis 收購的最終整合成本和其他特殊項目包括出售我們匈牙利業務的損失以及包括商譽減值和養老金結算成本的非現金費用。不包括重組成本和其他特殊項目，調整後每股收益為 2.08 美元。

Walking from our guidance midpoint, our results included a softer operational performance of $0.19, slightly lower weighted average shares due to share repurchases in the quarter, which had a positive impact of $0.01; lower effective tax rate, which had a positive impact of $0.02; a foreign currency impact that was $0.08 better than our guidance due to the strengthening of the euro and the pound during the quarter; and other expenses had a positive $0.01 impact.

從我們的指導中點來看，我們的結果包括 0.19 美元的疲軟運營業績，由於本季度股票回購而導致的加權平均股票略低，產生了 0.01 美元的積極影響；較低的有效稅率，產生了 0.02 美元的積極影響；由於本季度歐元和英鎊走強，外匯影響比我們的指導好 0.08 美元；和其他費用產生了 0.01 美元的積極影響。

Next, let's review our revenue by business line. Year-over-year, on an organic constant currency basis, the Manpower brand reported revenue decline of 1%. The Experis brand was flat and the Talent Solutions brand reported revenue growth of 7%. Within Talent Solutions, we continue to see year-over-year revenue growth in RPO as permanent hiring trends remained solid across our key markets during the quarter. Our MSP business saw a modest revenue decline in the quarter as we reduced certain lower-margin activity while Right Management experienced a double-digit percentage revenue increase on higher outplacement volumes in the quarter compared to the extremely low levels in the prior year.

接下來，讓我們按業務線回顧一下我們的收入。與去年同期相比，在有機固定貨幣的基礎上，萬寶盛華品牌的收入下降了 1%。 Experis 品牌持平，Talent Solutions 品牌報告收入增長 7%。在人才解決方案方面，我們繼續看到 RPO 的收入同比增長，因為本季度我們主要市場的長期招聘趨勢依然穩固。由於我們減少了某些利潤率較低的活動，我們的 MSP 業務在本季度的收入略有下降，而與上一年的極低水平相比，Right Management 在本季度因更高的再就業量而實現了兩位數的收入增長。

Looking at our gross profit margin in detail. Our gross margin came in at 18.2%; Staffing margin contributed 30 basis point increase driven by our Manpower businesses. Permanent recruitment, including Talent Solutions RPO, contributed 20 basis point GP margin improvement as hiring activity contributed to high single-digit increases in gross profit year-over-year. Project and other Solutions-related services within Experis resulted in a 20 basis point margin increase.

詳細查看我們的毛利率。我們的毛利率為 18.2%；在人力資源業務的推動下，人員配置利潤率增長了 30 個基點。永久性招聘，包括人才解決方案 RPO，貢獻了 20 個基點的 GP 利潤率提高，因為招聘活動導致毛利潤同比實現高個位數增長。 Experis 內的項目和其他解決方案相關服務導致利潤率增加 20 個基點。

Right Management career transition in MSP within Talent Solutions contributed 20 basis points of improvement and other items represented a positive 10 basis points.

Talent Solutions 中 MSP 的睿仕管理職業轉型貢獻了 20 個基點的改進，而其他項目代表了 10 個正基點。

Moving on to our gross profit by business line. During the quarter, the Manpower brand comprised 57% of gross profit. Our Experis Professional business comprised 26% and Talent Solutions comprised 17%. During the quarter, our consolidated gross profit grew by 3% on an organic constant currency basis year-over-year. Our Manpower brand reported an organic gross profit increase of 2% in constant currency year-over-year.

按業務線繼續我們的毛利潤。本季度，萬寶盛華品牌佔毛利的 57%。我們的 Experis Professional 業務佔 26%，人才解決方案佔 17%。本季度，我們的綜合毛利潤按有機固定匯率計算同比增長 3%。我們的 Manpower 品牌按固定匯率計算的有機毛利潤同比增長 2%。

Organic gross profit in our Experis brand increased 3% in constant currency year-over-year. This reflects strong growth in higher-margin solutions as well as growth in permanent recruitment.

我們 Experis 品牌的有機毛利潤按固定匯率計算同比增長 3%。這反映了高利潤解決方案的強勁增長以及永久招聘的增長。

Organic gross profit in Talent Solutions increased 11% in constant currency year-over-year. This was driven by double-digit GP percentage growth in both RPO and right management. MSP experienced solid GP growth and significant margin improvement as we improve the mix of business during the quarter.

Talent Solutions 的有機毛利潤按固定匯率計算同比增長 11%。這是由 RPO 和權利管理的兩位數 GP 百分比增長推動的。隨著我們在本季度改善業務組合，MSP 實現了穩健的 GP 增長和顯著的利潤率改善。

Reported SG&A expense in the quarter was $775 million. Excluding restructuring costs and other special items, SG&A was 4% higher year-over-year on an organic constant currency basis which is down from the 9% growth in the third quarter on the same basis. This reflects the balance of cost reductions in areas of slowing demand while we continue to invest in growth opportunities, most notably in Experis, Talent Solutions and specialty skills in Manpower.

本季度報告的 SG&A 費用為 7.75 億美元。不包括重組成本和其他特殊項目，SG&A 在有機固定貨幣基礎上同比增長 4%，低於第三季度同期 9% 的增長率。這反映了在需求放緩領域降低成本的平衡，同時我們繼續投資於增長機會，尤其是 Experis、人才解決方案和 Manpower 的專業技能。

The underlying increases consisted of operational costs of $31 million incremental costs related to net acquisitions and dispositions of businesses of $2 million, offset by currency changes of $62 million. Adjusted SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue represented 14.6% in constant currency in the fourth quarter. I'll discuss goodwill impairment as part of the Northern Europe segment review. Integration costs, a small loss on sale and modest restructuring costs totaled $7 million.

潛在的增長包括 3100 萬美元的運營成本，與 200 萬美元的業務淨收購和處置相關的增量成本被 6200 萬美元的貨幣變動所抵消。調整後的 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比在第四季度按固定匯率計算為 14.6%。作為北歐部分審查的一部分，我將討論商譽減值。整合成本、少量銷售損失和適度的重組成本總計 700 萬美元。

The Americas segment comprised 25% of consolidated revenue. Revenue in the quarter was $1.2 billion, flat compared to the prior year period on a constant currency basis. Reported OUP was $58 million and includes $4 million of final acquisition and integration costs on the completion of the U.S. acquisition integration as well as some small restructuring costs.

美洲分部佔綜合收入的 25%。本季度收入為 12 億美元，按固定匯率計算與上年同期相比持平。報告的 OUP 為 5800 萬美元，包括完成美國收購整合後的 400 萬美元最終收購和整合成本以及一些小額重組成本。

As adjusted, OUP was $62 million and OUP margin was 5.3%. U.S. is the largest country in the Americas segment, comprising 69% of segment revenues. Revenue in the U.S. was $819 million during the quarter, representing a 3% days-adjusted decrease compared to the prior year. As adjusted to exclude acquisition integration and restructuring costs, OUP for our U.S. business was $45 million in the quarter, representing a decrease of 15%.

調整後，OUP 為 6200 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 5.3%。美國是美洲分部中最大的國家，佔分部收入的 69%。本季度美國的收入為 8.19 億美元，與去年同期相比減少 3%。經調整以排除收購整合和重組成本後，本季度美國業務的 OUP 為 4500 萬美元，下降了 15%。

As adjusted, OUP margin was 5.5%. Within the U.S., the Manpower brand comprised 25% of gross profit during the quarter. Revenue for the Manpower brand in the U.S. decreased 8% on a days-adjusted basis during the quarter, representing a decline from the 3% growth rate in the third quarter.

調整後，OUP 利潤率為 5.5%。在美國，萬寶盛華品牌佔本季度毛利潤的 25%。 Manpower 品牌在美國的收入在本季度按天數調整後下降 8%，低於第三季度 3% 的增長率。

Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. steadily decreased during the fourth quarter from above 50 in October to the 48 range in December. Our U.S. Manpower business experienced a progressive pullback in demand during the course of the quarter. The Experis brand in the U.S. comprised 46% of gross profit in the quarter. Within Experis in the U.S., IT skills comprised approximately 90% of revenues. Experis U.S. revenue growth on a day-adjusted basis represented 1% as we anniversaried very strong growth in the year-ago period.

第四季度美國製造業 PMI 從 10 月份的 50 以上穩步下降至 12 月份的 48 區間。我們的美國人力資源業務在本季度經歷了需求的逐步回落。美國的 Experis 品牌佔本季度毛利潤的 46%。在美國的 Experis，IT 技能約佔收入的 90%。 Experis 美國收入按天調整後的收入增長為 1%，因為我們在去年同期實現了非常強勁的增長。

The integration activities for our acquired U.S. Experis business were successfully completed during the quarter. Talent Solutions in the U.S. contributed 29% of gross profit and experienced a revenue decline of 4% in the quarter. This was driven by a decrease in RPO revenues in the U.S. as permanent hiring program softened in the fourth quarter, and we anniversaried dramatic growth in the prior year. Although RPO programs are slowing in the current environment, fourth quarter RPO revenues were well above prepandemic levels.

我們收購的美國 Experis 業務的整合活動在本季度成功完成。美國的 Talent Solutions 貢獻了 29% 的毛利潤，該季度收入下降了 4%。這是由於美國的 RPO 收入下降所推動的，因為第四季度永久性招聘計劃放緩，而我們在上一年實現了大幅增長。儘管 RPO 計劃在當前環境下正在放緩，但第四季度 RPO 收入遠高於大流行前水平。

The U.S. MSP business saw a modest revenue decline as we reduced some lower margin activity while all placement activity within our Right Management business drove significant revenue increases. In the first quarter of 2023, we expect a slightly higher rate of year-over-year revenue decline as compared to the fourth quarter trend in the U.S., which reflects the current environment and represents some further softening across Manpower, Experis and RPO.

由於我們減少了一些利潤率較低的活動，而我們 Right Management 業務中的所有配售活動都推動了收入的顯著增長，因此美國 MSP 業務的收入略有下降。在 2023 年第一季度，我們預計與美國第四季度的趨勢相比，收入同比下降幅度略高，這反映了當前的環境，並代表 Manpower、Experis 和 RPO 的進一步疲軟。

Southern Europe revenue comprised 43% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue in Southern Europe came in at $2.1 billion, representing a 2% decrease in organic constant currency. Reported OUP for the Southern Europe business was $106 million in the quarter. As adjusted, OUP margin was 5.1%.

南歐收入佔本季度綜合收入的 43%。南歐的收入為 21 億美元，按有機固定匯率計算下降了 2%。本季度報告的南歐業務 OUP 為 1.06 億美元。調整後，OUP 利潤率為 5.1%。

France revenue comprised 57% of the Southern Europe segment in the quarter and increased 2% in days adjusted organic constant currency. As adjusted, OUP for our France business was $59 million in the quarter, representing an organic increase of 3%. As adjusted, OUP margin was 4.9%. The business in France continues to operate in a very low growth environment based on supply chain impacts from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and broader inflationary pressures. Activity in January 2023 indicates further softening. We are estimating the year-over-year constant currency revenue growth rate in the first quarter for France to be slight growth to flat based on January activity trends.

法國收入佔本季度南歐部分的 57%，按天數調整有機固定貨幣增長 2%。調整後，本季度法國業務的 OUP 為 5900 萬美元，有機增長 3%。調整後，OUP 利潤率為 4.9%。基於持續的俄烏戰爭和更廣泛的通脹壓力對供應鏈的影響，法國的業務繼續在非常低的增長環境中運營。 2023 年 1 月的活動表明進一步走軟。根據 1 月份的活動趨勢，我們估計法國第一季度的同比固定貨幣收入增長率將略有增長至持平。

Revenue in Italy equaled $413 million in the quarter, reflecting an increase of 1% on a days adjusted constant currency basis. OUP equaled $29 million and OUP margin was 7.1%. As we continue to anniversary significant revenue growth in the prior year period, we estimate that Italy will have a slightly lower constant currency year-over-year revenue trend in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter.

本季度意大利的收入為 4.13 億美元，按天數調整後的固定匯率計算增長了 1%。 OUP 為 2900 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 7.1%。隨著我們繼續保持去年同期的顯著收入增長，我們估計與第四季度相比，意大利第一季度的固定貨幣同比收入趨勢將略有下降。

Our Northern Europe segment comprised 20% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue of $973 million represented a 3% decline in organic constant currency. OUP represented $16 million and adjusted OUP margin was 1.7%. Our largest market in Northern Europe segment is the U.K., which represented 36% of segment revenues in the quarter.

我們的北歐分部佔本季度綜合收入的 20%。 9.73 億美元的收入代表有機固定貨幣下降 3%。 OUP 為 1600 萬美元，調整後的 OUP 利潤率為 1.7%。我們在北歐分部最大的市場是英國，佔本季度分部收入的 36%。

During the quarter, U.K. revenues decreased 6% on a day-adjusted constant currency basis. This reflects a slightly higher rate of decline from the third quarter trend. We expect a similar year-over-year revenue trend in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter.

本季度，英國收入按日調整固定匯率計算下降 6%。這反映了第三季度趨勢的下降速度略高。與第四季度相比，我們預計第一季度的收入同比趨勢相似。

In Germany, revenues decreased 3% in days-adjusted constant currency in the fourth quarter, a significant improvement from the third quarter trend. We continue to take actions to improve our Germany business and have progressed various initiatives focused on business mix and operational improvements.

在德國，按天數調整後的固定匯率計算，第四季度收入下降了 3%，與第三季度的趨勢相比有了顯著改善。我們繼續採取行動改善我們在德國的業務，並推進了各種專注於業務組合和運營改進的舉措。

Overall, in the first quarter, we are expecting a slightly improved year-over-year revenue trend compared to the fourth quarter trend.

總體而言，與第四季度趨勢相比，我們預計第一季度收入趨勢將略有改善。

The Netherlands is one of our smaller businesses in Northern Europe. The revenue decrease in the fourth quarter of 5% days-adjusted constant currency was a slight improvement from the third quarter trend on this same basis. Based on the prolonged decline in revenues in the Netherlands, increased interest rates and the worsening economic conditions, we updated our goodwill impairment assessment at year-end which concluded in a noncash impairment charge of $50 million.

荷蘭是我們在北歐的較小業務之一。在同一基礎上，第四季度收入下降 5%（天數調整後固定匯率）比第三季度趨勢略有改善。基於荷蘭收入的長期下降、利率上升和經濟狀況惡化，我們在年底更新了商譽減值評估，得出 5000 萬美元的非現金減值費用。

Having said that, we have taken various actions in the Netherlands, which have recently improved profitability, and we expect further improvement in 2023. The Asia Pacific Middle East segment comprises 12% of total company revenue. In the quarter, revenue grew 8% in constant currency to $579 million. OUP was $23 million and OUP margin as adjusted was 4%. Our largest market in the APME segment is Japan, which represented 46% of segment revenues in the quarter. Revenue in Japan grew 11% in constant currency or 12% on a days-adjusted basis. We remain very pleased with the consistent performance of our Japan business, and we expect continued strong revenue growth in the first quarter. I'll now turn to cash flow and balance sheet. In full year 2022, free cash flow equaled $348 million compared to $581 million in the prior year. In the fourth quarter, free cash flow represented $115 million compared to $238 million in the prior year. At year-end, days sales outstanding increased about half a day to 56 days.

話雖如此，我們在荷蘭採取了各種行動，最近提高了盈利能力，我們預計 2023 年會進一步改善。亞太中東地區占公司總收入的 12%。本季度，收入按固定匯率計算增長 8% 至 5.79 億美元。 OUP 為 2300 萬美元，調整後的 OUP 利潤率為 4%。我們在 APME 細分市場中最大的市場是日本，佔本季度細分市場收入的 46%。日本的收入按固定匯率計算增長 11%，按天數調整後增長 12%。我們對日本業務的一貫表現感到非常滿意，我們預計第一季度的收入將繼續強勁增長。我現在將轉向現金流量和資產負債表。 2022 年全年，自由現金流為 3.48 億美元，上年為 5.81 億美元。第四季度，自由現金流為 1.15 億美元，而去年同期為 2.38 億美元。年底時，未完成銷售天數增加了大約半天，達到 56 天。

During the fourth quarter, capital expenditures represented $20 million. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased 376,000 shares of stock for $25 million. As of December 31, we have 2 million shares remaining for repurchase under the share program approved in August of 2021. Our balance sheet ended the quarter with cash of $639 million and total debt of $987 million. Net debt equaled $348 million at quarter end. Our debt ratios at quarter end reflect total adjusted gross debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA of $1.32 and total debt to total capitalization at 29%.

第四季度，資本支出為 2000 萬美元。第四季度，我們以 2500 萬美元回購了 376,000 股股票。截至 12 月 31 日，根據 2021 年 8 月批准的股票計劃，我們還有 200 萬股股票可供回購。我們的資產負債表在本季度結束時現金為 6.39 億美元，總債務為 9.87 億美元。季度末淨債務為 3.48 億美元。我們在季度末的債務比率反映了調整後總債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的 1.32 美元以及總債務與總資本的 29%。

Our debt and credit facilities remain unchanged during the quarter. After successfully lengthening our debt duration profile with the Euro note executed in mid-2022, we entered 2023 with a very strong balance sheet.

我們的債務和信貸額度在本季度保持不變。在 2022 年年中執行歐元票據成功延長我們的債務期限後，我們進入 2023 年時資產負債表非常強勁。

Next, I'll review our outlook for the first quarter of 2023. Based on trends in the fourth quarter and January activity to date, our forecast is cautious and anticipates that the challenging environment will continue through the first quarter. We are forecasting underlying earnings per share for the first quarter to be in the range of $1.61 to $1.71 which includes an unfavorable foreign currency impact of $0.15 per share. We have disclosed our foreign currency translation rate estimates at the bottom of the guidance slide. Our constant currency revenue guidance range is between a decrease of 3% and an increase of 1% and at the midpoint represents a 1% decrease. There's no meaningful impact for acquisitions and dispositions but there is an increase in billing days year-over-year, bringing the days-adjusted constant currency decrease to 2.5% at the midpoint. This represents a decrease from the flat fourth quarter revenue trend on this same basis.

接下來，我將回顧我們對 2023 年第一季度的展望。根據第四季度的趨勢和迄今為止 1 月份的活動，我們的預測是謹慎的，預計充滿挑戰的環境將持續到第一季度。我們預測第一季度的基本每股收益在 1.61 美元至 1.71 美元之間，其中包括每股 0.15 美元的不利外匯影響。我們在指導幻燈片的底部披露了我們的外幣換算率估計。我們的固定貨幣收入指導範圍在減少 3% 和增加 1% 之間，中點代表減少 1%。對收購和處置沒有重大影響，但計費天數同比增加，使天數調整後的固定匯率下降至中點的 2.5%。在同一基礎上，這比第四季度的平穩收入趨勢有所下降。

We expect our EBITDA margin during the first quarter to be down 30 basis points at the midpoint compared to the prior year. We estimate that the effective tax rate for the first quarter to be 29.5% and the full year of 2023 to be 29%. This reflects the enacted decrease in the French business tax that I mentioned last quarter and our latest estimate of mix of country earnings.

我們預計第一季度的 EBITDA 利潤率與去年同期相比將下降 30 個基點。我們預計一季度有效稅率為29.5%，2023年全年有效稅率為29%。這反映了我上個季度提到的法國營業稅的實際減少以及我們對國家收入組合的最新估計。

As usual, our guidance does not incorporate restructuring charges or additional share repurchases, and we estimate our weighted average shares to be $51.5 million. I will now turn it back to Jonas.

與往常一樣，我們的指導不包括重組費用或額外的股票回購，我們估計我們的加權平均股票為 5150 萬美元。我現在把它轉回給喬納斯。

R

R

Thank you, Jack. As we wrap up our reporting of 2022 and begin 2023, I'd like to provide an update on our DDI strategy: diversification; digitization; and innovation and acceleration plans, which together with continued investments in our technology roadmap are strengthening our capabilities to capture higher margin opportunities and create long-term sustainable value. .

謝謝你，傑克。在我們結束 2022 年報告並開始 2023 年之際，我想提供有關我們 DDI 戰略的最新信息：多元化；數字化;創新和加速計劃，連同對我們技術路線圖的持續投資，正在加強我們捕捉更高利潤機會和創造長期可持續價值的能力。 .

On diversification, we're making excellent progress shifting our mix to higher-margin businesses within and across all of our brands, ensuring our clients have the talent and workforce strategy to adapt quickly to market shifts as they happen. We're also very pleased with the completion of our rapid and successful integration of our ettain acquisition into our Experis business, and we are starting 2023 with a very strong position in the U.S. IT professional resourcing and services market.

在多元化方面，我們在將我們的業務組合轉移到我們所有品牌內部和之間的利潤率更高的業務方面取得了巨大進展，確保我們的客戶擁有人才和勞動力戰略，以在市場變化時迅速適應它們。我們也非常高興我們完成了對 ettain 收購的快速和成功整合到我們的 Experis 業務中，我們將從 2023 年開始在美國 IT 專業資源和服務市場佔據非常強大的地位。

We also see strength in the Experis brand globally, positioning us to capitalize on the growing global professional IT resourcing market. Our industry leadership and star performer status in both Experis and Talent Solutions RPO and MSP offerings has also been recognized in 2022 by Everest Group as discussed in the recent quarters.

我們還看到 Experis 品牌在全球的實力，使我們能夠利用不斷增長的全球專業 IT 資源市場。我們在 Experis 和 Talent Solutions RPO 和 MSP 產品方面的行業領導地位和明星地位也在 2022 年得到了 Everest Group 的認可，正如最近幾個季度所討論的那樣。

On digitization, we continue to make excellent industry-leading progress on our technology roadmap. Last year, I communicated that we had completed PowerSuite cloud-enabled front office implementations in 22 markets. I'm pleased to report that in 2022, we've implemented PowerSuite in 11 additional markets and are in-flight with 6 more markets as we speak. By the end of 2023, we will have substantially all of our major businesses on this leading platform.

在數字化方面，我們繼續在我們的技術路線圖上取得行業領先的卓越進展。去年，我曾表示我們已經在 22 個市場完成了支持 PowerSuite 雲的前台辦公室實施。我很高興地報告，到 2022 年，我們已經在 11 個額外的市場實施了 PowerSuite，並且在我們說話的同時，還有 6 個市場正在實施中。到 2023 年底，我們幾乎所有的主要業務都將在這個領先的平台上進行。

During 2022, we have further strengthened our mobile app leadership position in France and advanced our Associate app in various other key markets with more countries being added in 2023. Our global enterprise data lake is in place for our top 3 markets: France; U.S.; and Italy, further strengthening our business insights to clients and improving our candidate experience, all of which is a critical to our B2C, business to candidate, strategy at a time when talent shortages remain high.

2022 年，我們進一步加強了我們在法國移動應用程序的領導地位，並在 2023 年增加了更多國家/地區的情況下，在其他各個主要市場推進了我們的 Associate 應用程序。我們的全球企業數據湖已為我們的前 3 個市場準備就緒：法國；我們。;和意大利，進一步加強我們對客戶的業務洞察力並改善我們的候選人體驗，在人才短缺仍然嚴重的情況下，所有這些對我們的 B2C、企業對候選人的戰略都至關重要。

Our back-office cloud-enabled infrastructure projects are also driving efficiencies and improving our processes. On innovation, our engine for growth, we're making great progress on leveraging our PowerSuite technology stack here, too, and are accelerating the deployment and adoption of our AI-based recruitment tools and machine learning to enhance recruiter productivity,to be more data and insight driven to find the best talent match quickly and focus on activities that create the most value for candidates, associates and clients.

我們的後台支持雲的基礎設施項目也在提高效率並改進我們的流程。在創新方面，我們的增長引擎，我們在利用我們的 PowerSuite 技術堆棧方面也取得了很大進展，並且正在加速部署和採用我們基於 AI 的招聘工具和機器學習，以提高招聘人員的生產力，獲得更多數據和洞察力驅動，以快速找到最佳人才匹配，並專注於為候選人、員工和客戶創造最大價值的活動。

As we continue to differentiate our higher-value services, we're increasingly focused on being creators of talent at scale by expanding our talent engine offerings across our brands and for our internal employees and associates. Our Talent Academy is recruiting and training our own new talent to be experts in key skills and industry verticals, including IT.

隨著我們繼續差異化我們的高價值服務，我們越來越專注於通過在我們的品牌和我們的內部員工和同事中擴展我們的人才引擎產品來大規模地創造人才。我們的人才學院正在招聘和培訓我們自己的新人才，使他們成為關鍵技能和垂直行業（包括 IT）方面的專家。

Our Experis Academy, now active across 14 markets, is providing intensive role-ready tech training and coaching for our Experis consultants, especially in cloud and infrastructure, Business Transformation Services and Digital Workspace specialist skills, so we can find or create the best talent which our clients need. And our Manpower MyPath has boosted the employability of almost 200,000 temporary associates in 15 markets. increasing recruiter productivity, achieving higher reassignment rates, stronger Net Promoter Scores and driving higher GP margin across specializations.

我們的 Experis 學院目前活躍於 14 個市場，正在為我們的 Experis 顧問提供密集的角色準備技術培訓和指導，特別是在雲和基礎設施、業務轉型服務和數字工作空間專家技能方面，因此我們可以找到或培養最優秀的人才我們的客戶需要。我們的 Manpower MyPath 提高了 15 個市場近 200,000 名臨時員工的就業能力。提高招聘人員的工作效率，實現更高的重新分配率，更強的淨推薦值並推動更高的專業化 GP 利潤率。

In addition to this, we engaged in many more training initiatives at a local country level as well. We're also making excellent progress are working to change the World ESG plans, recognized in 2022 for our impact across planet, people and prosperity and principles of governance. ESG is increasingly important to our clients, associates and employees as they choose with whom to work or be associated with.

除此之外，我們還在當地國家層面開展了更多培訓活動。我們還在努力改變世界 ESG 計劃方面取得了巨大進展，該計劃在 2022 年因我們對地球、人類和繁榮以及治理原則的影響而得到認可。 ESG 對於我們的客戶、員工和員工來說越來越重要，因為他們會選擇與誰一起工作或交往。

We earned an A minus rating in this year's carbon disclosure project survey, driven by our science-based target initiative validated emissions reduction targets. We maintained our industry-leading Sustainalytics score. We're included in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index for the 14th year recognized by Newsweek as one of America's most responsible companies for the fourth year and ranked in the top half within the Wall Street Journal's top 250 best-managed companies by the Drucker Institute, scoring highly for customer satisfaction, innovation and social responsibility, all of which reinforces our reputation as a leading organization with strong performance in the areas of environment, social and corporate governance and our talented teams should be proud.

在我們基於科學的目標倡議驗證的減排目標的推動下，我們在今年的碳披露項目調查中獲得了 A 負評級。我們保持了行業領先的 Sustainalytics 分數。我們連續第 14 年入選道瓊斯可持續發展指數，連續四年被《新聞周刊》評為美國最負責任的公司之一，並在《華爾街日報》德魯克研究所評選的 250 家最佳管理公司中名列前半，在客戶滿意度、創新和社會責任方面得分很高，所有這些都鞏固了我們作為在環境、社會和公司治理領域表現出色的領先組織的聲譽，我們的優秀團隊應該感到自豪。

In closing, we've seen the broader economic environment softened over the past months. This has translated into lower demand for our services in some markets, which we expect will continue. However, we still continue to see good demand for specific skills and industry verticals that support growth in our higher-margin offerings. We are very confident in our ability to manage this dichotomy of market opportunity as we have done many times in the past, and we will adjust our resources as we see the market evolve going forward.

最後，我們看到過去幾個月更廣泛的經濟環境有所緩和。這已轉化為某些市場對我們服務的需求下降，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。然而，我們仍然繼續看到對特定技能和垂直行業的良好需求，這些需求支持我們的高利潤產品的增長。正如我們過去多次所做的那樣，我們對我們管理這種市場機會二分法的能力非常有信心，我們將隨著市場的發展而調整我們的資源。

Longer term, we remain convinced that in this fast-changing post-pandemic landscape, our clients' workforce transformation needs will grow. The value of data and insights will increase and building the right blend of people and tech will be even more critical. We're confident that our DDI strategies and excellent progress positions us to leverage these opportunities and more to accelerate profitable growth and value creation.

從長遠來看，我們仍然相信，在這個瞬息萬變的大流行後形勢下，我們客戶的勞動力轉型需求將會增長。數據和洞察力的價值將會增加，建立正確的人與技術融合將變得更加重要。我們相信，我們的 DDI 戰略和出色的進展使我們能夠利用這些機會以及更多機會來加速盈利增長和價值創造。

Now I'd like to open the call to Q&A. Operator?

現在我想打開問答環節。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question for today is from Andrew Steinerman of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrew Steinerman。

I wanted to look back at Slide 7. And despite the softening demand environment fourth quarter in terms of staffing, gross margins were still up 30 basis points. So Jack, I just was hoping you could talk a little bit about what's driving that? Is there a mix factor? How are bill pay spreads doing? And how is that same figure likely the trend is the first quarter?

我想回顧一下幻燈片 7。儘管第四季度在人員配備方面需求環境疲軟，但毛利率仍上升了 30 個基點。所以傑克，我只是希望你能談談是什麼驅動了它？有混合因素嗎？賬單支付利差如何？同樣的數字怎麼可能是第一季度的趨勢？

Thank you, Andrew. Yes, I'd be happy to talk to that. So I'd say the big item is staffing margin. So you can see staffing margin having the biggest contribution to the year-over-year plus 100 basis points. And despite the volumes and the pressure on volumes that we talked about on the call, Pricing continues to hold up very well. And we see that across all of our large markets.

謝謝你，安德魯。是的，我很樂意與之交談。所以我想說的大項目是人員配備保證金。因此，您可以看到人員配備利潤率對同比增長的貢獻最大，再加上 100 個基點。儘管我們在電話會議上談到了銷量和銷量壓力，但定價仍然保持得很好。我們在所有大型市場中都看到了這一點。

So I'd say there is a component of that, that is mix as well on the staffing side. We've been talking about the adjustments we have been making to the overall portfolio. You've seen us talk about some of the dispositions of some of the countries that were not at hurdle rates, and you saw us in this release talk about another move we've made there in terms of divesting of one of our businesses in Europe.

所以我想說其中有一個組成部分，那就是人員配置方面的混合。我們一直在談論我們對整體投資組合所做的調整。您已經看到我們談論了一些未達到門檻利率的國家的一些處置，並且您在本新聞稿中看到我們談論了我們在那裡採取的另一項舉措，即剝離我們在歐洲的一項業務.

So mix is part of it, but I'd say the bigger part of it is just the continued strong pricing environment. That is reflected in what we've been talking about in terms of the labor markets and the demand for talent. On an overall basis, staffing margins continue to perform very well. The other part of it is the mix as well in terms of the brand mix and Experis and Talent Solutions continuing to be at record levels of percentage of the overall business, and that's having an impact as well.

所以混合是其中的一部分，但我想說其中更大的一部分只是持續強勁的定價環境。這反映在我們一直在談論的勞動力市場和人才需求方面。總體而言，員工利潤率繼續表現良好。另一部分是品牌組合以及 Experis 和 Talent Solutions 繼續保持在整體業務百分比的創紀錄水平，這也產生了影響。

I'd say in terms of spreads on an overall basis, holding fairly steady from -- sequentially from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. We're not really seeing a big change in terms of bill pay spreads and so forth. So again, in line with solid pricing. And then you can see Perm, although we have noted that Perm is starting to slow off-record levels, still having a very positive impact with year-over-year growth, and we talked about that in the prepared remarks as well at very high single-digit growth in Perm overall year-over-year, contributing to that GP margin improvement.

我想說的是，就整體利差而言，從第三季度到第四季度依次保持相當穩定。我們並沒有真正看到賬單支付利差等方面的重大變化。同樣，與可靠的定價一致。然後你可以看到彼爾姆，雖然我們已經註意到彼爾姆開始放慢創紀錄的水平，但仍然對同比增長產生非常積極的影響，我們在準備好的評論中也談到了這一點彼爾姆總體同比增長個位數，有助於提高 GP 利潤率。

The other item, Experis we've called out, you can see from the services side, so the non-resourcing side, very good activity there, and you can see the 20 basis points in solution statement of work, other services.

另一個項目，我們已經提出的 Experis，你可以從服務方面看到，所以在非資源方面，那裡的活動非常好，你可以在解決方案工作說明書和其他服務中看到 20 個基點。

And lastly, I'd say, Andrew, MSP contributed year-over-year to margin improvement. And we did see right management outplacement activity start to rebound from record lows in the prior year and that had a positive impact on margin as well.

最後，我想說，安德魯，MSP 為提高利潤率做出了同比貢獻。我們確實看到正確的管理人員安置活動開始從前一年的歷史低點反彈，這也對利潤率產生了積極影響。

Our next question is from Jeff Silber of BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Jeff Silber。

You talked in your prepared remarks about doing cost reduction in areas of slower demand. I was wondering if we can get a little bit more color on that in terms of where that was? Are these cost reductions expected to continue? And if not, what are you looking for before holding off on that?

您在準備好的發言中談到了在需求較慢的領域降低成本。我想知道我們是否可以根據它的位置獲得更多顏色？這些成本削減預計會持續嗎？如果沒有，在推遲之前你在尋找什麼？

Yes. Jeff, I'd be happy to talk to that. So I guess the way I'd say that, as we've talked about in the prepared remarks, it is still a bit of a balance. We are still investing for growth and good opportunities. And Experis and Perm in certain markets is still holding up fairly well. So there are areas where we continue to invest, but we are pulling back in areas where we are seeing softness. So when I look at -- we talked a lot about SG&A year-over-year being up in the fourth quarter. That's largely due to the momentum of the growth earlier in the year when you look at year-over-year. But when we look at FTEs and headcount sequentially were actually down from the end of the third quarter.

是的。傑夫，我很樂意與之交談。所以我想我會這麼說，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，它仍然有點平衡。我們仍在為增長和良好的機會進行投資。 Experis 和 Perm 在某些市場的表現仍然相當不錯。因此，我們在某些領域繼續投資，但在我們看到疲軟的領域撤回。因此，當我看到 - 我們談論了很多關於第四季度 SG&A 同比增長的問題。這主要是由於今年早些時候同比增長的勢頭。但是，當我們按順序查看 FTE 和員工人數時，實際上比第三季度末有所下降。

So our headcount is down. And if you look across the markets where we've made some adjustments, you can see North America would be part of that based on the trends that we're seeing. The U.S. and Canada both down and head count slightly. Across Europe, you would see, and we've talked about this before, some adjustments in Germany as well in Norway as well. So reacting to some of those sectors where we've seen softness like in construction in Europe, you would expect that we're making adjustments in those parts of the business.

所以我們的員工人數減少了。如果你看看我們做出一些調整的市場，你會發現根據我們所看到的趨勢，北美將成為其中的一部分。美國和加拿大均有所下降，人數略有減少。在整個歐洲，你會看到，我們之前已經討論過，德國和挪威也進行了一些調整。因此，對我們看到歐洲建築業疲軟的一些行業做出反應，您會期望我們正在對這些業務部分進行調整。

But on an overall basis, I'd say if you think about the quarter overall, we still grew GP dollars across all brands. And so that indicates that the environment is still, although it's choppy and a bit uneven, and we're certainly seeing more pressure on the manpower side, there continues to be very good opportunity in pockets even in manpower in pockets, and we've talked about the investment in specialty. But where there has been slowing, we are making those adjustments.

但總的來說，我想說的是，如果你考慮整個季度，我們所有品牌的 GP 美元仍然增長。因此，這表明環境仍然是，儘管它起伏不定且有點不平衡，而且我們肯定會看到人力方面的壓力更大，即使口袋裡有人力，口袋裡仍然有很好的機會，而且我們已經談到專業的投資。但在放緩的地方，我們正在做出這些調整。

And as to your point about going forward, you should expect that we're going to continue to do that. And we'll do that based on the trends that we're seeing in the key markets. and we'll continue to make those adjustments as we go forward. I did announce in the quarter that we did some slight restructuring. We did -- the restructuring dollars were very small on an overall basis. And that would reflect some very small rightsizing in the U.S., Latin America, in Mexico, as you would expect, we've done some small rightsizing there as well. in Northern Europe, in Germany and Norway, as I mentioned earlier, some slight adjustments. And in France, we made some small adjustments as well. So that would capture the small restructuring we took in the quarter. And we'll continue to monitor those trends going forward in terms of overall activity levels.

至於你關於前進的觀點，你應該期望我們將繼續這樣做。我們將根據我們在主要市場看到的趨勢來做到這一點。隨著我們的前進，我們將繼續進行這些調整。我確實在本季度宣布我們進行了一些輕微的重組。我們做到了——總體而言，重組資金非常少。這將反映出美國、拉丁美洲和墨西哥的一些非常小的權利調整，正如您所期望的那樣，我們也在那裡進行了一些小規模的權利調整。在北歐，在德國和挪威，正如我之前提到的，一些細微的調整。在法國，我們也做了一些小的調整。這樣就可以捕捉到我們在本季度進行的小型重組。我們將繼續在總體活動水平方面監控這些趨勢。

All right. That was really helpful, Jack. I appreciate it. And moving on to everybody's favorite topic was just taxes. I know you gave us an update on the impact of the French business tax, is that something that we should use? I know you're not talking about 2024, but is that a good number to use, that 29%, going forward?

好的。這真的很有幫助，傑克。我很感激。繼續討論每個人最喜歡的話題就是稅收。我知道您向我們介紹了法國營業稅影響的最新情況，這是我們應該使用的嗎？我知道你不是在談論 2024 年，但 29% 是一個很好的數字嗎？

Yes. Great point. So the government of France did pass the French business tax reduction as part of the budget for 2023. So that's locked in. So that will take us. We did say that 29% for the full year 2023 that does have that benefit, which is about 1.5% or so. We've also updated the mix of country earnings, which is part of the equation as well, which takes it to 29%. We'll see if that ends up maybe being a tad conservative.

是的。好點。因此，法國政府確實通過了法國營業稅減免，作為 2023 年預算的一部分。所以它被鎖定了。所以這將帶走我們。我們確實說過，2023 年全年有 29% 確實有這種好處，大約是 1.5% 左右。我們還更新了國家收入的組合，這也是等式的一部分，將其提高到 29%。我們會看看最終是否會變得有點保守。

But when we go to 2024, currently, they are projecting to remove the final part of the French business tax if that gets passed,and the final confirmation of that will be in the 2024 budget when it's approved at the end of '23. That would be another 1.5% decrease, which would take us down further to about 27%, 27.5% for '24. So we'll continue to update that. We'll watch that when the preliminary budget comes out in the fall. And certainly, in the fourth quarter, we'll have greater certainty around that, but that would be very good if that got passed as intended.

但是，當我們進入 2024 年時，目前，他們計劃取消法國營業稅的最後一部分，如果它獲得通過，最終確認將在 23 年底批准的 2024 年預算中。這將是另一個 1.5% 的下降，這將使我們進一步下降到 27% 左右，24 年下降到 27.5%。所以我們會繼續更新。當初步預算在秋季公佈時，我們將拭目以待。當然，在第四季度，我們對此有更大的確定性，但如果按預期通過，那將是非常好的。

Our next question is from Manav Patnaik of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Manav Patnaik。

This is actually Ronan Kennedy on for Manav. Last quarter, if I'm not mistaken, the commentary was very -- it was indicative of seeing solid demand, a little to no signs of deterioration, while increasing risks and uncertainty were acknowledged, it was -- the commentary was indicative of that solid demand. But now it's broader economic softening, lower demand for services in some, not all markets, the uncertain economic outlook. How did that happen. Can you assess what happened in the quarter versus your expectations even from a timing standpoint and with regards to your visibility? And how we should expect first quarter and the remainder of the year to play out in consideration of that.

這實際上是 Manav 的 Ronan Kennedy。上個季度，如果我沒記錯的話，評論非常——這表明需求強勁，幾乎沒有惡化跡象，同時承認風險和不確定性增加，這是——評論表明堅實的需求。但現在是更廣泛的經濟疲軟，部分而非所有市場對服務的需求下降，經濟前景不明朗。那是怎麼發生的。即使從時間的角度和關於您的知名度，您能否評估本季度發生的事情與您的預期？考慮到這一點，我們應該如何預期第一季度和今年剩餘時間的結果。

Sure, Ron. Well, the risks and uncertainty we talked about in the prior call, to some degree, came to pass. For the first 3 quarters of the year, especially after the Ukraine war, we started to see Europe soften, but the U.S. held on and Q4 was really the time when we started to see the U.S. demand softening broadly across the brands, but clearly more pronounced for the Manpower brand and that shouldn't have come as much as of a surprise. As you know, for the Manpower brand, PMI is a good indicator, both across Europe during the year. And in the U.S., at this time, PMIs are all below 50, and we really could see that softening demand occurring in the Manpower brand in particularly.

當然，羅恩。好吧，我們在之前的電話會議中談到的風險和不確定性在某種程度上已經成為現實。今年前三個季度，尤其是在烏克蘭戰爭之後，我們開始看到歐洲走軟，但美國堅持不懈，第四季度確實是我們開始看到美國品牌需求普遍走軟的時候，但顯然更多為 Manpower 品牌而宣布，這不足為奇。如您所知，對於 Manpower 品牌而言，PMI 是一個很好的指標，無論是在整個歐洲，還是在這一年。而在美國，此時 PMI 均低於 50，我們確實可以看到尤其是 Manpower 品牌的需求疲軟。

So at this point, as Jack has just spoken about, it is clearly visible across all of our brands. But having said that, we see big differentiation between the softening the Talent solutions still leading the way in terms of growth of GP in the fourth quarter. The same is true for Experis holding up well. And really, it's the Manpower brand that we're seeing having more of an impact due to the slowdown in industrial activity and across various sectors.

所以在這一點上，正如傑克剛才所說，它在我們所有的品牌中都清晰可見。但話雖如此，我們看到軟化人才解決方案之間存在很大差異，但在第四季度 GP 的增長方面仍然處於領先地位。 Experis 表現良好也是如此。事實上，由於工業活動和各個部門的放緩，我們看到的是 Manpower 品牌產生了更大的影響。

And Ron, I would just add to that. I think when we released our third quarter results on October 20, we just had a couple of weeks of activity in October at that point. I think if you look at some of the labor market data, particularly in the U.S. on what happened from October through December, you'll see a significant trend change in terms of what was happening with temporary workers in November and December as they ended the quarter. And certainly, in France as well, you would have seen the industry data there step down in the month of November and December. And actually, our business held up fairly well compared to that industry data that went negative year-over-year in November and December.

羅恩，我只想補充一點。我認為當我們在 10 月 20 日發布第三季度業績時，我們在 10 月只有幾週的活動。我認為，如果你看一些勞動力市場數據，特別是美國從 10 月到 12 月發生的情況，你會發現 11 月和 12 月臨時工在結束就業市場時發生的情況發生了重大趨勢變化。四分之一。當然，在法國，您也會看到那裡的行業數據在 11 月和 12 月下降。實際上，與 11 月和 12 月同比下降的行業數據相比，我們的業務表現相當不錯。

But clearly, the environment changed when we went out on October 20, we did say that we anticipated a stable environment, to your point. And what happened in November and December actually moved away from that.

但是很明顯，10 月 20 日我們出去的時候環境變了，我們確實說過我們期待一個穩定的環境，就像你說的那樣。而 11 月和 12 月發生的事情實際上偏離了這一點。

That's very helpful. And then margins were touched on in response to Andrew's question, but just for guidance for the first quarter overall, I mean, obviously, it is a function of the top line and the potential declines there. But what are the other kind of puts and takes to upside or downside to the margins as well and then ultimately earnings.

這很有幫助。然後在回答安德魯的問題時觸及了利潤率，但只是為了指導第一季度的整體情況，我的意思是，很明顯，這是頂線的一個函數和那裡的潛在下降。但是，還有什麼是其他類型的看跌期權，以及對利潤率的上行或下行以及最終收益的影響。

Yes. No. Happy to talk to that. I think for the first quarter for GP margin, still holding up very well, I'd say. So you can see at the midpoint, we're at 18.1%. That's still up 70 basis points year-over-year. So I think based on the earlier question we had on GP margins, still anticipating and seeing good staffing margin, still solid pricing environment. And we don't see that changing. And although Perm is coming off record lows and slowing on a year-over-year basis in terms of growth trends sequentially, there is still good Perm activity in various markets. So we still see that contributing to the GP margin.

是的。不，很高興與之交談。我認為第一季度的 GP 利潤率仍然保持得很好，我會說。所以你可以在中點看到，我們是 18.1%。這仍然同比上升了 70 個基點。所以我認為基於我們之前關於 GP 利潤率的問題，仍然預期並看到良好的員工利潤率，仍然是穩定的定價環境。我們沒有看到這種變化。儘管 Perm 正在脫離歷史低點，並且在連續增長趨勢方面同比放緩，但各個市場的 Perm 活動仍然良好。所以我們仍然看到這對 GP 利潤率有貢獻。

I think on the bottom line, it's actually pretty straightforward. We are seeing a decrease in operational leverage with the revenue trends. So I mentioned in the first quarter, we ended up on a flat organic days adjusted basis. We stepped down in the first quarter. So although at the midpoint in constant currency, it's at minus 1, as I mentioned, we have more days in the first quarter. So when you adjust for days, that takes it down to about minus 2.5%.

我認為歸根結底，這實際上非常簡單。我們看到運營槓桿隨著收入趨勢的下降而下降。所以我在第一季度提到，我們最終在調整後的有機天數持平。我們在第一季度下台。因此，儘管在固定匯率的中點，它是負 1，正如我提到的，我們在第一季度有更多的天數。所以當你調整幾天時，它會下降到大約負 2.5%。

So it's really the lower volumes that are translating into lower GP dollars, which are falling down. We are making adjustments, but that is contributing to the EBITDA margin of the minus 30 basis points year-over-year in the first quarter, really driven by the volumes.

因此，實際上是較低的交易量轉化為較低的 GP 美元，而後者正在下降。我們正在進行調整，但這導致第一季度的 EBITDA 利潤率同比下降 30 個基點，這實際上是由銷量推動的。

Our next question is from Mark Marcon of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Mark Marcon。

Jack, RPO, where is that as a percentage of GP?

Jack，RPO，它佔 GP 的百分比在哪裡？

So Mark, we'd like to talk Perm overall. So that includes RPO, but also includes the Perm activity that's happening in the staffing brands as well as Manpower and Experis. So on an overall basis, in the fourth quarter, our Perm as a percentage of total GP is at about 18.6%. So -- and we've talked about that in the past. You see that coming down from the record levels of Perm that we had in the second quarter, and we expected that to happen. So at that point, it was above -- just slightly above 20%.

馬克，我們想全面談談彼爾姆。因此，這包括 RPO，但也包括在人員配備品牌以及 Manpower 和 Experis 中發生的 Perm 活動。因此，總體而言，在第四季度，我們的 Perm 佔總 GP 的百分比約為 18.6%。所以 - 我們過去已經討論過這個問題。你看到這從我們第二季度的彼爾姆創紀錄水平下降，我們預計會發生這種情況。所以在那個時候，它高於 - 略高於 20%。

And so now it's coming down just below 19% now. And we would expect that to continue to settle in at more historical levels somewhere in that range, maybe even a little bit lower as we go forward as expected.

所以現在它下降到略低於 19%。我們預計它會繼續穩定在該範圍內的某個歷史水平上，甚至可能會隨著我們按預期前進而降低一點。

Yes. And you mentioned that RPO is continuing to grow during the fourth quarter, although it declined in the U.S. Where are you seeing the growth on the RPO side. And as you talked about it settling in a little bit more as a percentage, what range would you expect it to go to if the economy softens a little bit further on a worldwide basis if there's more caution.

是的。你提到 RPO 在第四季度繼續增長，儘管它在美國有所下降。你在哪裡看到 RPO 方面的增長。當你談到它以百分比的形式穩定下來時，如果更加謹慎，如果全球經濟進一步走軟，你預計它會達到什麼範圍。

Sure. I'd be happy to talk about that. So the U.K. had very, very strong RPO growth in the fourth quarter. We saw very -- Poland is a great operation for us in terms of supporting our global RPO. They had very strong growth as well. Japan had strong RPO growth and France had strong RPO growth as well. So those are all some of our larger markets that did very well in RPO, which took us to overall growth despite the U.S. being down in the fourth quarter. Overall, RPO was up double digits in revenues. And so that would be the main drivers.

當然。我很樂意談論那個。因此，英國第四季度的 RPO 增長非常非常強勁。我們看到 - 波蘭在支持我們的全球 RPO 方面對我們來說是一項偉大的行動。他們也有非常強勁的增長。日本的 RPO 增長強勁，法國的 RPO 增長也強勁。因此，這些都是我們在 RPO 方面表現出色的一些較大市場，儘管美國在第四季度表現不佳，但我們仍實現了整體增長。總體而言，RPO 的收入增長了兩位數。因此，這將是主要的驅動因素。

I think to your point in terms of the outlook, I mean we would expect that the year-over-year growth rates for Perm would continue to come down. as we move forward, again, as we get further away from some of the record levels of activity, and we anniversary very, very high rates in the prior year. But I'd say as we continue, it's hard to say. In this environment, Perm's been holding up better than anyone would have ever imagined if we would have went back a number of quarters. And it's still holding up fairly well despite some of the pressure we're seeing in staffing volumes in some of the markets.

我認為就前景而言，我的意思是我們預計彼爾姆的同比增長率將繼續下降。隨著我們向前邁進，隨著我們距離一些創紀錄的活動水平越來越遠，我們紀念了前一年非常非常高的利率。但我會說，隨著我們的繼續，這很難說。在這種環境下，如果我們倒退幾個季度，彼爾姆的表現比任何人想像的都要好。儘管我們在一些市場的人員配置量方面看到了一些壓力，但它仍然保持得相當好。

So will that growth rate continue to edge down? Yes. But it's hard to say if it will come down into negative territory anytime soon. We'll just have to monitor those trends. But so far, we're very encouraged by the fact that it's holding up in many of our key markets.

那麼這個增長率會繼續下降嗎？是的。但很難說它是否會很快降到負數區域。我們只需要監控這些趨勢。但到目前為止，我們對它在我們許多主要市場中的表現感到非常鼓舞。

That's great. And Jonas, you were just in Europe, you were at Davos. Can you talk a little bit about what you're hearing from clients and just generally speaking, with regards to -- in the key markets, France, U.K., Italy, Germany, what you're hearing with regards to areas that seem to be holding up a little bit better than what we hear on this side of the pond or would imagine as it relates to Europe and what areas of caution are there? How are you thinking about things not just for the next 3 months but over the course of the year, broadly speaking?

那太棒了。喬納斯，你剛剛在歐洲，你在達沃斯。你能談談你從客戶那裡聽到的嗎？一般來說，關於 - 在主要市場，法國，英國，意大利，德國，你聽到的關於似乎是比我們在池塘這一邊聽到的或想像的要好一點，因為它與歐洲有關，有哪些需要注意的地方？從廣義上講，您如何看待未來 3 個月乃至一年中的事情？

Sure, Mark. The conclusions of discussions with clients is, clearly, their hiring intent is softening somewhat. But despite what you read in the papers in terms of both big tech companies pulling down and other larger corporations also having workforce reductions, most of our clients are continuing to hire. They may not hire the same skill set, so they take longer to hire. The sales cycles are a bit longer. Recruitment times are going up. And they're very specific about the skills that they feel they're going to be needing heading into the year, but they are continuing to hire.

當然，馬克。與客戶討論的結論顯然是，他們的招聘意向有所緩和。但是，儘管你在報紙上讀到大型科技公司倒閉，其他大公司也在裁員，但我們的大多數客戶仍在繼續招聘。他們可能不會僱用相同的技能組合，因此他們需要更長的時間來僱用。銷售週期有點長。招聘時間正在增加。他們對他們認為進入新一年將需要的技能非常具體，但他們仍在繼續招聘。

And that speaks exactly to this dichotomy in terms of demand. So on the one side, we feel that some of the skill sets, notably in logistics are becoming softer. Construction has been softer due to the interest rate environment. You have others as financial services and tech companies where demand is still holding on really in Europe as well as globally.

這恰恰說明了需求方面的這種二分法。因此，一方面，我們覺得一些技能組合，尤其是物流方面的技能正在變得更加軟化。由於利率環境，建築業較為疲軟。你還有其他金融服務和科技公司，它們在歐洲和全球範圍內的需求仍然存在。

So we're in this time where we are balancing between customers that are tapping the brakes, they're not hitting the brake, they're tapping the brakes. Some have their foot over the break and thinking about what they would do if they see the environment deteriorate further to many clients saying that they're working through the pandemic supply chain issues, and they have a big order a book that they need to fulfill during 2023. So it's quite uneven, but at the same time, quite encouraging because you can tell, all of this is reflected in still very strong labor markets. And what's not unusual, as you well know, is that our industry leads the way in a softening economy but it has yet to translate into the broader labor market.

所以我們在這個時候我們正在踩剎車的客戶之間進行平衡，他們沒有踩剎車，他們正在踩剎車。一些人正在休息，並考慮如果他們看到環境進一步惡化，他們會怎麼做，許多客戶說他們正在解決大流行的供應鏈問題，並且他們有一個大訂單，他們需要完成一本書在 2023 年期間。所以它很不平衡，但與此同時，非常令人鼓舞，因為你可以看出，所有這些都反映在仍然非常強勁的勞動力市場上。眾所周知，我們的行業在疲軟的經濟中處於領先地位，但它尚未轉化為更廣泛的勞動力市場，這並不罕見。

And we don't know to what degree it will. We note, of course, the reduction in demand for some places with manpower skills, in particular, as we see industrial outlooks come down. But overall, it's still a constructive environment, but it is difficult to predict where it's going, most companies we spoke with and are speaking with still are looking to bring on talent because they have the memory of the pandemic, very, very fresh. And you think back over past recessions, and this may be the most preannounced recession that we've ever experienced, be it technical or otherwise, employers in the past really absorbed most of the slowdown in reduced productivity because they wanted to hold on to the workers.

我們不知道它會達到什麼程度。當然，我們注意到對某些具有人力技能的地方的需求減少，尤其是在我們看到工業前景下降的情況下。但總的來說，這仍然是一個建設性的環境，但很難預測它的發展方向，我們採訪過和正在採訪的大多數公司仍在尋求引進人才，因為他們對大流行病記憶猶新，非常非常新鮮。你回想一下過去的經濟衰退，這可能是我們經歷過的最預先宣布的經濟衰退，無論是技術性的還是其他方面的，過去的雇主確實吸收了生產力下降的大部分放緩，因為他們想堅持下去工人。

And that means we may well, as Jack has alluded to, still see reasonably good Perm activity, some parts of the business feeling more of the softening and others still see very good demand. But it's hard to predict, but we're ready to manage this whichever way it goes. And as you can tell, we feel really good about our diversified business mix where we feel that we have some good resilience in higher skill sets and developing more resilience in also Manpower higher skill sets. So we'll manage it as it evolves based on the trends that we're seeing. But I'd say the tone in Davos was more optimistic than I had expected.

這意味著，正如傑克所暗示的那樣，我們很可能仍然會看到相當不錯的彼爾姆活動，業務的某些部分感覺更加疲軟，而其他部分仍然看到非常好的需求。但這很難預測，但我們已準備好以任何方式進行管理。正如您所知，我們對我們的多元化業務組合感覺非常好，我們認為我們在更高技能方面具有良好的彈性，並且在 Manpower 更高技能方面也有更強的彈性。因此，我們將根據我們所看到的趨勢，隨著它的發展對其進行管理。但我想說達沃斯的基調比我預期的要樂觀。

Our next question is from Kartik Mehta of Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Jack, you talked a little bit about competition and pricing holding up. I'm wondering, is that across all brands? Or is maybe the Manpower brand seeing some additional competition because of some of the pressures and the other brands are holding up, so -- where your comments kind of overall pricing is holding up. I'm just wondering if you look at kind of the brands, what do you think about competition currently?

傑克，你談到了一些關於競爭和定價的問題。我想知道，所有品牌都這樣嗎？或者 Manpower 品牌可能會因為一些壓力而看到一些額外的競爭，而其他品牌正在堅持，所以 - 你的評論整體定價正在堅持。我只是想知道如果你看一下這些品牌，你如何看待目前的競爭？

Yes. Thanks, Kartik. Actually, it's a very good point, and I should have clarified that actually Manpower had very good staffing margin improvement in the fourth quarter. So I could understand why there would be a question if they're seeing the most pressure on volumes, are they starting to see some pressure on margin, on staffing margin. And it actually is not the case.

是的。謝謝，卡爾蒂克。實際上，這是一個很好的觀點，我應該澄清一下，實際上 Manpower 在第四季度的人員配置利潤率有了很好的改善。所以我可以理解為什麼會有一個問題，如果他們看到最大的銷量壓力，他們是否開始看到利潤率和人員配置利潤率的一些壓力。而事實並非如此。

So despite volumes being down, pricing is holding up very well on the Manpower side. And when we look at that 30 basis points for staffing margin, Manpower was a big contributor to that. So no, it's holding up quite well. And I'd say on the Experis side, margins are holding up very well as well. I think in line with the trends that we've talked about in recent quarters. But I think the good news is despite some of the pressure we're seeing in some of the slowing environment, that is not translating into pressure on margins on the manpower side.

因此，儘管銷量下降，但 Manpower 方面的定價仍保持良好。當我們查看人員配置利潤率的 30 個基點時，萬寶盛華對此做出了很大貢獻。所以不，它保持得很好。我想說，在 Experis 方面，利潤率也保持得很好。我認為這與我們最近幾個季度討論的趨勢一致。但我認為好消息是，儘管我們在一些放緩的環境中看到了一些壓力，但這並沒有轉化為人力方面利潤率的壓力。

And then, Jack and Jonas, just all the conversations you've had with your clients and maybe your trip to Davos and Europe and, Jack, just you're looking at business and the statistics, Would you anticipate for wage inflation? It seems like it's coming down a little bit. but it's probably mid-single digits, if that's correct. And I'm wondering kind of your outlook for the year and what you would anticipate for that?

然後，Jack 和 Jonas，就您與客戶進行的所有對話，也許還有您的達沃斯和歐洲之行，以及，Jack，您正在研究業務和統計數據，您是否預計工資會上漲？好像一點點往下掉。但它可能是中個位數，如果那是正確的話。我想知道您對今年的展望以及您對此有何期待？

As many we've been clearly looking at wage inflation. And just as a reminder, from our perspective, wage inflation is actually a positive effect because it translates into our business through higher bill rates. So we -- our business model is not negatively impacted by the direct inflation or wage inflation that actually benefits from it. Obviously, from an economic perspective, high inflationary pressures are not good.

和許多人一樣，我們一直在清楚地關注工資通脹。提醒一下，從我們的角度來看，工資上漲實際上是一種積極影響，因為它通過更高的票據利率轉化為我們的業務。因此，我們 - 我們的商業模式不會受到實際從中受益的直接通貨膨脹或工資上漲的負面影響。顯然，從經濟角度看，高通脹壓力並不好。

And to your question, we expect wage inflation to continue to come down as you've seen over the last 6 months. Although the pace of those decline -- that decline is hard to gauge. But I would say this, if you speak and we speak obviously to employers at large, their expectation is for wage inflation to come down. which is why the wage increases on average are still quite contained.

對於你的問題，我們預計工資通脹將繼續下降，正如你在過去 6 個月所看到的那樣。儘管這些下降的速度——這種下降很難衡量。但我要說的是，如果你和我們對廣大雇主說話，他們顯然希望工資通脹下降。這就是為什麼平均工資增長仍然相當有限的原因。

So they are not responding on average to these wage demands. They are trying to manage it through onetime bonuses, hiring incentives, all kinds of onetime effects because their assumption is that wages are going to be coming down over time, and they want to remain competitive in the market in their business. So we would expect wage inflation to continue to come down. But based on the gradual and slow decline that we've seen certainly over the last 9 months, we think there's still -- it's still going to take a while. But overall, our wage inflation expectations are for it to moderate.

因此，他們平均不會對這些工資要求做出回應。他們正試圖通過一次性獎金、招聘激勵和各種一次性效應來管理它，因為他們假設工資會隨著時間的推移而下降，並且他們希望在他們的業務中保持市場競爭力。因此，我們預計工資通脹將繼續下降。但基於我們在過去 9 個月中肯定看到的逐漸和緩慢的下降，我們認為仍然 - 這仍然需要一段時間。但總的來說，我們對工資通脹的預期是溫和的。

Our next question is from Tobey Sommer of Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Tobey Sommer。

This is Jasper Bibb on for Tobey. The gross margin guidance for the first quarter looks really strong despite some of the headwinds we talked about. And I think historically, that's usually been the weakest margin quarter for the company. How should we think about the seasonal pattern of margins over the balance of the year? Or any impact that some of your permanent placement business is declining might have on margins over the course of the year?

這是托比的 Jasper Bibb。儘管我們談到了一些不利因素，但第一季度的毛利率指引看起來非常強勁。我認為從歷史上看，這通常是公司利潤率最低的季度。我們應該如何考慮全年利潤率的季節性模式？或者您的一些永久性配售業務正在下降可能對全年的利潤率產生任何影響？

Thanks, Jasper. Yes, you're right. I think traditionally, we do typically see some pressure. I think the counter to that, though, is we have stepped up margin pretty progressively sequentially over the last number of quarters, and we take that into the first quarter. So the rate of increase is slowing. We were up 100 basis points in Q4 year-over-year, it's 70 basis points. And that's just the comps starting to catch up a bit.

謝謝，賈斯珀。你是對的。我認為傳統上，我們通常會看到一些壓力。不過，我認為與此相反的是，我們在過去幾個季度中逐步逐步提高了利潤率，並將其納入第一季度。因此，增長速度正在放緩。我們在第四季度同比上漲 100 個基點，即 70 個基點。這只是補償開始趕上一點。

But no, I would say, at the moment, we feel pretty good in terms of, as I mentioned earlier, in terms of pricing, staffing margin, Perm continuing to contribute and based on mix of the business as well, right? So as we look out, we typically don't talk about future quarters, but I think it is fair to say that, generally, the second half of the year, we typically see a bit higher GP margins. I think this year in 2023, the item that we'll definitely keep a close eye on is Perm and the contribution of Perm to overall market, as we mentioned earlier. If Perm slows more dramatically, then that will have an impact and we'll start to see that come down.

但不，我要說的是，正如我之前提到的，我們在定價、員工利潤率、Perm 繼續貢獻以及基於業務組合方面感覺非常好，對吧？因此，當我們展望未來時，我們通常不會談論未來的季度，但我認為可以公平地說，一般來說，今年下半年，我們通常會看到更高的 GP 利潤率。我認為今年 2023 年，我們肯定會密切關注的項目是 Perm 以及 Perm 對整個市場的貢獻，正如我們之前提到的。如果彼爾姆的經濟放緩得更厲害，那將會產生影響，我們將開始看到這種影響下降。

I think the good news is we're already seeing the contribution of Perm as we talked about in previous questions, kind of start to get back to more traditional levels as a percentage of GP. And as that continues to stabilize, that should have less volatility on GP margin as we go forward. So that's what I'd say, Jasper.

我認為好消息是我們已經看到了 Perm 的貢獻，正如我們在之前的問題中談到的那樣，有點開始回到更傳統的水平作為 GP 的百分比。隨著這種情況繼續穩定下來，隨著我們的前進，毛利率的波動應該會減少。所以這就是我要說的，賈斯珀。

That makes sense. And then Europe PMI has been contracting month over month for most of the second half of '22, but your organic revenue guidance for Europe is still roughly flat year-over-year in the first quarter. Could you speak to any differences in how managers are using temp labor in this environment? And are they more, I guess, reticent to let people go, given the shortages that we've seen in the past 2 years.

這就說得通了。然後，在 22 年下半年的大部分時間裡，歐洲 PMI 一直在逐月收縮，但第一季度歐洲的有機收入指引仍與去年同期大致持平。您能談談管理者在這種環境下使用臨時工的方式有何不同嗎？考慮到我們在過去兩年中看到的人才短缺問題，我猜他們是否更不願意讓員工離開。

I'd say that they are definitely careful about letting their talent go. And the uncertainty and the volatility in terms of the outlook and the economic conditions also means that they prefer to have a more flexible workforce, which is helping us offset some of the demand weakness we may see.

我要說的是，他們絕對不會放過自己的才華。前景和經濟狀況的不確定性和波動性也意味著他們更願意擁有更靈活的勞動力，這有助於我們抵消我們可能看到的一些需求疲軟。

So employers use this workforce solutions that we provide through Manpower and to a lesser degree in terms of economic cycle on the Experis side and Talent Solutions side to create some flexibility in their outlook and be able to quickly respond to either increases in activity or decreases in activity.

因此，雇主使用我們通過 Manpower 提供的勞動力解決方案，並在較小程度上使用 Experis 方面和人才解決方案方面的經濟周期來為他們的前景創造一些靈活性，並能夠快速響應活動的增加或減少活動。

And I think that's what we see. But they have definitely and continued to be influenced by the difficulties in finding talent, and they are increasingly looking to us to help them provide that talent. And as you've heard from our prepared remarks, they are also very pleased with our increasing capabilities of upskilling and reskilling talent that isn't available in the market. We see this as a tremendous opportunity, both from a Manpower perspective as well as from an Experis perspective, as the demographic trends in Europe and in North America are clearly getting tougher over time with lower birth rates, the ability to tap into talent pools and to create skills that are missing in the market, we think, is going to be a great competitive advantage for both Manpower and Experis at scale.

我認為這就是我們所看到的。但他們確實並繼續受到尋找人才困難的影響，他們越來越希望我們幫助他們提供人才。正如您從我們準備好的發言中聽到的那樣，他們也對我們不斷提高的提升和再培訓人才的能力感到非常滿意，這在市場上是不可用的。我們認為這是一個巨大的機會，無論是從 Manpower 的角度還是從 Experis 的角度來看，因為歐洲和北美的人口趨勢隨著時間的推移顯然變得更加艱難，出生率較低，利用人才庫的能力和我們認為，創造市場上缺少的技能將成為 Manpower 和 Experis 規模化的巨大競爭優勢。

And Jasper, just a technical item. I think your point that constant currency guidance is relatively flat compared to the minus 1% in Q4 to minus 1% in Q1. But there are more days. And days are a bigger issue than usual in the first quarter of '23. So it's about 1.5% difference due to the more days.

而Jasper，只是一個技術項目。我認為你的觀點是，與第四季度的負 1% 和第一季度的負 1% 相比，固定匯率指導相對持平。但是還有更多的日子。在 23 年的第一季度，日子比平時更重要。因此，由於天數更多，大約有 1.5% 的差異。

So when you adjust for days, we are down sequentially. So that takes it down to about 2.5% on an overall basis. So in Europe, in some of those markets, we are seeing -- when you adjust for days, we are seeing a slight step down in France and in Italy, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks. So that's just the only thing to keep in mind as you think about that.

因此，當您調整幾天時，我們會依次下降。因此，總體上將其降至 2.5% 左右。因此，在歐洲，在其中一些市場中，我們看到——當你調整幾天時，我們看到法國和意大利略有下降，正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣。因此，這是您在考慮時唯一要記住的事情。

Our next question is from George Tong of Goldman Sachs. .

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 George Tong。 .

You mentioned customers are exercising more caution in the demand for both contingent and Perm recruitment. Can you compare how quickly contingent trends are changing relative to Perm placement trends, particularly exiting the quarter? .

您提到客戶對臨時招聘和 Perm 招聘的需求更加謹慎。您能否比較臨時趨勢相對於 Perm 安置趨勢的變化速度，尤其是在本季度結束時？ .

You can see that we are still holding on to Perm and that manpower staffing is coming down quicker than Perm. So it is connected to a very strong labor market and some of the volatility you see in certain industry verticals in some countries. So Perm at this point is holding up better than contingent staffing, especially for manpower.

你可以看到我們仍然堅持彼爾姆，而且人力資源的減少速度比彼爾姆快。因此，它與非常強勁的勞動力市場以及您在某些國家/地區的某些垂直行業中看到的一些波動有關。因此，彼爾姆在這一點上比臨時人員編制更好，尤其是在人力方面。

Great. And you indicated that activity in France in January points to further softening from a growth perspective. Can you elaborate on what you're seeing in France in terms of order flow, sales cycles and various end market performance?

偉大的。您表示，從增長的角度來看，1 月份法國的經濟活動表明進一步疲軟。您能否詳細說明您在法國看到的訂單流、銷售週期和各種終端市場表現方面的情況？

Well, I would say that we're tracking well to market. You've seen some of the Prism data soften over the last couple of months, and then you saw it as well recently. So France is continuing and actually is still holding steady, but at a low level. It is one of the countries -- one of the few countries where we, as well as the industry, never came back to pre-pandemic levels. So I would say the same phenomena that we're seeing in other markets where there is a slowdown, longer sales cycles, longer times to close recruitment cycles, but still an environment that is constructive to our higher-value offerings or higher skill sets within Manpower and also some very good opportunities on workforce transformation as it relates to Talent Solutions.

好吧，我會說我們正在很好地跟踪市場。在過去的幾個月裡，你已經看到一些 Prism 數據有所軟化，然後你最近也看到了它。所以法國正在繼續，實際上仍然保持穩定，但處於低水平。它是我們以及該行業從未回到大流行前水平的少數幾個國家之一。因此，我想說的是我們在其他市場看到的相同現象，這些市場出現放緩、銷售週期延長、招聘週期結束時間延長，但仍然有利於我們提供更高價值的產品或更高技能的環境人力以及與人才解決方案相關的勞動力轉型的一些非常好的機會。

So all of this indicates a slight step down, as Jack talked about, but still something that is manageable from our perspective.

因此，正如傑克所說，所有這些都表明略有下降，但從我們的角度來看仍然是可以控制的。

Our next question is from Heather Balsky of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Heather Balsky。

I was hoping if you could talk a little bit about Germany, you mentioned in the prepared remarks about some of the initiatives you're taking there to turn that business. I was hoping you could elaborate on that. And then I'm curious about the underlying environment you're seeing in that market. You didn't call that out as one where you're seeing some slowing, but just curious what you're seeing in some of those end markets.

我希望你能談談德國，你在準備好的評論中提到了你在那裡採取的一些舉措來扭轉業務。我希望你能詳細說明一下。然後我很好奇你在那個市場上看到的潛在環境。你並沒有把它稱為你看到一些放緩的地方，但只是好奇你在其中一些終端市場看到了什麼。

Well, I think the overall market is still -- holding steady unemployment rates are still low, and there is a lot of work that we're doing to make sure that our business is competing the way it should. We were pleased to see an improvement sequentially between the third quarter and the fourth quarter. We expect to continue to see an improvement. As we've talked about in prior calls, our exposure to the automotive sector in Germany is the highest that we have across all of our countries, and that's really giving us a lot of work to do to diversify our business into segments that are holding up a bit better. So even if the market could go softer also in Germany in the first quarter, I think we have initiatives in place where we're hoping to see continued improvement in our own business as we move forward. And we have a Proservia business that is also working to recover some of the lost ground.

好吧，我認為整個市場仍然 - 保持穩定的失業率仍然很低，我們正在做很多工作來確保我們的業務以應有的方式競爭。我們很高興看到第三季度和第四季度之間的連續改善。我們希望繼續看到改善。正如我們在之前的電話會議中談到的那樣，我們在德國汽車行業的風險敞口是我們所有國家中最高的，這確實給了我們很多工作要做，以將我們的業務多元化到持有的細分市場起來好一點。因此，即使第一季度德國市場也可能走軟，我認為我們已經採取了一些舉措，希望在我們前進的過程中看到我們自己的業務持續改善。我們的 Proservia 業務也在努力收復部分失地。

But overall, we're pleased to see signs of improvement, but we still have a lot of work to do, Heather to make sure that we're competing at the right level in the German markets.

但總的來說，我們很高興看到改善的跡象，但我們還有很多工作要做，希瑟，以確保我們在德國市場上以正確的水平競爭。

And then another question, just China reopening. I know if we go back a couple of calls, there's potential risk of disruption, some of the lockdowns. I'm just curious if there's any benefit with China reopening or if all of that has just kind of been not material to your business?

然後是另一個問題，只是中國重新開放。我知道如果我們再打幾個電話，就會有潛在的中斷風險，一些封鎖。我很好奇中國重新開放是否有任何好處，或者所有這些對您的業務是否都沒有實質性影響？

Well, as you know, our Chinese business is managed through a listed company in Hong Kong that is covering the Chinese market. But overall, I would expect that when Chinese demand improves, it will have the benefit of creating demand for products and services for the rest of the world, which will be positive, and it will probably also increase pressure in terms of demand for resources and energy costs might go up.

嗯，如你所知，我們的中國業務是通過一家覆蓋中國市場的香港上市公司進行管理的。但總的來說，我預計當中國需求改善時，將有利於為世界其他地區創造對產品和服務的需求，這將是積極的，並且可能還會增加資源需求和需求方面的壓力。能源成本可能會上升。

But overall, a growing China should be beneficial for the world economy and as such, we would benefit from that evolution. And certainly, on the Manpower side that might mean that PMI start to turn the other way and go in the right positive direction again. But from our own business perspective, not an impact, but as opposed to -- there might be a secondary effect of an improving economic environment to which China's growth contributes.

但總的來說，一個不斷發展的中國應該對世界經濟有利，因此，我們將從這種演變中受益。當然，在人力方面，這可能意味著 PMI 開始轉向另一個方向，再次朝著正確的積極方向發展。但從我們自己的商業角度來看，這不是影響，而是相反——中國的增長有助於改善經濟環境，這可能會產生次要影響。

That brings us to the end of our fourth quarter earnings call, and we look forward to speaking with you again when we catch up in April. Thanks, everyone. Have a good rest of the week.

這使我們結束了第四季度的收益電話會議，我們期待在四月份趕上時再次與您交談。謝謝大家。好好休息一周。

Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect now.

感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。