ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to ManpowerGroup's fourth-quarter earnings results conference call.

歡迎參加萬寶盛華集團第四季收益結果電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the call over to ManpowerGroup's Chairman and CEO, Mr. Jonas Prising.

現在，我想將電話轉給萬寶盛華集團董事長兼執行長喬納斯·普里辛先生。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始啦。

Welcome, and thank you for joining us for our fourth-quarter 2024 conference call.

歡迎您，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季電話會議。

Our Chief Financial Officer, Jack McGinnis, is with me today.

我們的財務長傑克麥金尼斯今天和我在一起。

And for your convenience, we have included our prepared remarks within the Investor Relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com.

為了您的方便，我們在 manpowergroup.com 網站「投資者關係」部分包含了我們準備好的評論。

I will start by going through some of the highlights of the quarter and the full year, and then Jack will go through the fourth-quarter results and guidance for the first quarter of 2025.

我將首先介紹本季和全年的一些亮點，然後傑克將介紹第四季的業績和 2025 年第一季的指引。

I will then share some concluding thoughts before we start our Q&A session.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我將分享一些總結性的想法。

Jack will now cover the Safe Harbor language.

傑克現在將介紹安全港條款。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

This conference call includes forward-looking statements, including statements concerning economic and geopolitical uncertainty, which are subject to known and known risks and uncertainties.

本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，其中包括有關經濟和地緣政治不確定性的陳述，這些陳述受已知和已知風險和不確定性的影響。

These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs.

這些聲明是基於管理層當前的期望或信念。

Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。

We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Slide 2 of our earnings release presentation further identifies forward-looking statements made in this call and factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially and information regarding reconciliation of non-GAAP measures.

我們的收益報告簡報的第 2 張投影片進一步指出了本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述以及可能導致我們的實際結果存在重大差異的因素以及有關非 GAAP 指標調節的資訊。

Thanks, Jack.

謝謝，傑克。

Last week, I attended the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

上週，我參加了瑞士達沃斯世界經濟論壇年會。

This gathering of business and government leaders from various countries offered an opportunity to connect with CEOs, policymakers, and thought leaders involved in areas relevant to our business.

這次來自不同國家的商業和政府領導人的聚會為我們提供了一個與涉及我們業務相關領域的執行長、政策制定者和思想領袖進行交流的機會。

Our main insights from this year's meeting focused on two themes: the global economic outlook across regions and harnessing the potential of AI.

我們從今年的會議中獲得的主要見解集中在兩個主題：跨地區的全球經濟前景和利用人工智慧的潛力。

The unpredictable economic and geopolitical global outlook was a key theme.

難以預測的全球經濟和地緣政治前景是一個關鍵主題。

The sentiment among business participants with regards to the US economic outlook appears to have improved, especially among US organizations.

商界人士，尤其是美國組織對於美國經濟前景的情緒似乎有所改善。

In contrast, concerns over European economic growth were evident, with leaders noting the continued weakness within the EU and in Northern Europe specifically, and the urgent imperative of getting back to economic growth that keeps pace or reduces the gap with the US and China.

相較之下，對歐洲經濟成長的擔憂顯而易見，領導人指出，歐盟內部、特別是北歐的經濟持續疲軟，迫切需要恢復經濟成長，跟上或縮小與美國和中國的差距。

Since we've seen this gap reflected in our own business and the staffing industry more broadly, I am encouraged that addressing the competitiveness of Europe has become an important priority for policymakers in that region.

由於我們看到這種差距反映在我們自己的業務和更廣泛的人員配置行業中，我很高興看到，解決歐洲的競爭力問題已成為該地區政策制定者的重要優先事項。

An action plan for growth was presented, and we're pleased by this urgency and alignment, along with a helpful backdrop of lower inflation and interest rates trending in the right direction in Europe.

我們提出了一項成長行動計劃，我們對這種緊迫性和一致性感到高興，同時歐洲通膨率較低、利率朝著正確的方向發展也是一個有利的背景。

The other main theme was the continued optimism and belief that the broad adoption of AI can generate significant growth opportunities for companies and nations.

另一個主要主題是持續的樂觀和信念，即廣泛採用人工智慧可以為公司和國家創造巨大的成長機會。

While last year's focus was on adopting GenAI across enterprises, this year's discussions centered optimistically on how to translate adoption to business impact and productivity gains.

雖然去年的重點是跨企業採用 GenAI，但今年的討論樂觀地集中在如何將採用轉化為業務影響力和生產力提升上。

We see a clear tension between employers and employees in this regard, with approximately half of business leaders believing AI will translate to business growth this year and 50% of workers are fearful of the impact of AI on their roles.

我們看到雇主和員工在這方面有明顯的緊張關係，大約一半的企業領導者認為人工智慧將在今年轉化為業務成長，50％的工人擔心人工智慧對他們的角色的影響。

Ensuring people have the skills to maximize tech investments and leaders bring their workforce along during the transition is critical to realize the potential of AI.

確保人們擁有最大化技術投資的技能並且領導者在過渡期間帶領他們的員工對於實現人工智慧的潛力至關重要。

This continues to be an area of significant promise for our own productivity enhancement and revenue growth.

這對我們自身的生產力提高和收入成長來說仍然是一個有重要前景的領域。

Our Experis Tech Talent Outlook found 58% of employers believe AI will be a job creator, and many of them are training their current workforce to address tech staffing challenges.

我們的 Experis 技術人才展望發現，58% 的雇主相信人工智慧將創造就業機會，其中許多雇主正在培訓現有員工以應對技術人才配備挑戰。

We aim to exploit this opportunity by providing reskilling and upskilling solutions to our clients and candidates as they strive to fill roles requiring different and increasingly specialist skills.

我們旨在利用這一機會，為我們的客戶和候選人提供再培訓和技能提升解決方案，幫助他們填補需要不同且越來越專業的技能的職位。

Turning to the current environment, our most recent ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook survey of 40,000 employers supports the need for specialized skills.

談到當前環境，我們最近對 40,000 名雇主進行的萬寶盛華集團就業前景調查支持了對專業技能的需求。

Employers report cautious yet steady hiring intentions for the three months ahead, with many prioritizing retention and attraction of workers with an adaptable mindset to adjust to the evolving requirements.

雇主報告稱，未來三個月他們將保持謹慎但穩定的招聘意向，許多雇主優先考慮留住和吸引具有靈活思維的員工，以適應不斷變化的需求。

Tech and data skills remain high demand across industries, and we see growing focus on the soft skills that enable businesses to unlock growth.

各行各業對技術和數據技能的需求仍然很高，我們看到企業越來越關注能夠實現成長的軟技能。

Consistent hiring intentions, particularly among larger organizations, point to stability, and we hope to see this trend continue throughout 2025.

一致的招募意圖（尤其是在較大的組織中）顯示了穩定性，我們希望看到這種趨勢能夠在 2025 年持續下去。

Based on our 75-year history, we are experienced at navigating various economic cycles, and in periods like this, we are constantly positioning the business to be able to manage our productivity and accelerate into recovery.

基於我們 75 年的歷史，我們在應對各種經濟週期方面經驗豐富，在這樣的時期，我們不斷定位業務，以便能夠管理我們的生產力並加速復甦。

Though we are seeing our industry affected in some new ways compared to previous downturns, particularly labor hoarding post-pandemic, coupled with prolonged hesitancy from employers due to the uncertain economic and geopolitical landscape, we remain convinced that traditional industry dynamics will play out over time in both North America and Europe.

儘管與以往的經濟衰退相比，我們的行業受到了一些新的影響，特別是疫情後的勞動力囤積，再加上由於不確定的經濟和地緣政治格局導致雇主長期猶豫不決，但我們仍然相信，傳統的行業動態將隨著時間的推移在北美和歐洲發揮作用。

To that point, although still in the early stages, we are seeing some encouraging performance in parts of our business.

到目前為止，儘管仍處於早期階段，但我們看到部分業務表現出令人鼓舞的表現。

Specifically, our US Manpower brand, which is typically on the leading edge of recovery, has crossed over to growth in the second half of 2024.

具體來說，我們的美國 Manpower 品牌通常處於復甦的前沿，並在 2024 年下半年邁入成長階段。

And similarly, our Talent Solutions business globally has also crossed over to growth in the same time period.

同樣，我們全球的人才解決方案業務也在同一時期實現了成長。

Sustaining these trends will be an important next step, and we will be monitoring the evolution closely as we move forward into 2025.

維持這些趨勢將是下一步的重要舉措，我們將在 2025 年密切關注其發展。

Now to our results.

現在來看看我們的結果。

In the fourth quarter, revenue was $4.4 billion, down 3% year over year in constant currency.

第四季營收為44億美元，以固定匯率計算年減3%。

Our reported EBITA for the quarter was $76 million.

我們報告的本季 EBITA 為 7600 萬美元。

Adjusting for restructuring costs and other special items, which we'll cover in the financial review, EBITA was $94 million, representing a decrease of 12% in constant currency year over year.

調整重組成本和其他特殊項目（我們將在財務審查中介紹）後，EBITA為9,400萬美元，以固定匯率計算年減12％。

Reported EBITA margin was 1.7%, and adjusted EBITA margin was 2.1%.

報告的 EBITA 利潤率為 1.7%，調整後的 EBITA 利潤率為 2.1%。

Earnings per diluted share was $0.47 on a reported basis, while earnings per diluted share was $1.02 on an adjusted basis.

以報告基礎計算，每股攤薄收益為 0.47 美元，以調整基礎計算，每股攤薄收益為 1.02 美元。

Adjusted earnings per share decreased 27% year over year in constant currency.

以固定匯率計算，調整後每股盈餘較去年同期下降 27%。

In the fourth quarter, staffing gross profit margins remained solid in a challenging environment.

第四季度，在充滿挑戰的環境下，人員配備毛利率仍保持穩健。

From a geographic perspective, we saw the continuation of a challenging environment in Europe and North America during the quarter, while demand for our services in LatAm and APME remained good.

從地理區域來看，本季我們看到歐洲和北美市場持續面臨挑戰，而拉丁美洲和亞太及中東地區對我們服務的需求仍然良好。

Turning to the full-year results for a few moments, reported earnings per share for the year was $3.01. As adjusted, earnings per share was $4.55 and represented a constant currency decrease of 21%.

讓我們來看看全年業績，報告的全年每股收益為 3.01 美元。經調整後，每股收益為 4.55 美元，以固定匯率計算下降了 21%。

Revenues for the year decreased 3% in constant currency to $17.9 billion, and reported EBITA was $339 million.

以固定匯率計算，本年度營收下降 3% 至 179 億美元，報告的 EBITA 為 3.39 億美元。

And as adjusted, EBITA was $403 million, which represented a 15% constant currency decrease year over year.

經調整後，EBITA為4.03億美元，以固定匯率計算年減15%。

I will now turn it over to Jack to take you through the results in more detail.

現在我將把話題交給傑克，讓他向大家更詳細地介紹結果。

Thanks, Jonas.

謝謝，喬納斯。

Going back to the quarterly results on slide 3, revenues in the fourth quarter were significantly impacted by the strengthened US dollar and, after adjusting for currency impacts, came in slightly above the midpoint of our constant currency guidance range.

回顧幻燈片 3 上的季度業績，第四季度的收入受到美元走強的顯著影響，在調整貨幣影響後，收入略高於我們恆定貨幣指導範圍的中點。

Gross profit margin came in at the low end of our guidance range.

毛利率處於我們預期範圍的低端。

As adjusted, EBITA was $94 million, representing a 12% decrease in constant currency compared to the prior year period.

經調整後，EBITA為9,400萬美元，以固定匯率計算較去年同期下降12%。

As adjusted, EBITA margin was 2.1% and came in at the low end of our guidance range, representing 40 basis points of decline year over year.

調整後，EBITA利潤率為2.1%，位於我們指導範圍的低端，較上年同期下降40個基點。

Foreign currency translation drove a 2% unfavorable impact to the US-dollar-reported revenue trend in addition to the constant currency decrease of 3%.

外幣折算除了導致 3% 的固定匯率下降之外，還對以美元報告的收入趨勢產生了 2% 的不利影響。

Organic-days-adjusted constant currency revenue decreased 2.5% in the quarter, which was favorable to our guidance of a 4% decrease on the same basis.

本季經有機天數調整後的固定匯率營收下降了 2.5%，符合我們預期的 4% 的降幅。

Turning to the EPS bridge, reported net earnings per share was $0.47. Adjusted EPS was $1.02 and came in very close to the midpoint of our guidance range.

談到 EPS 橋，報告的每股淨收益為 0.47 美元。調整後的每股收益為 1.02 美元，非常接近我們指引範圍的中點。

Walking from our guidance midpoint of $1.03, our results included a slightly lower operational performance of $0.01, a lower weighted average share count due to share repurchases in the quarter which had a positive impact of $0.01, a slightly lower tax rate which had a positive $0.02 impact, and a foreign currency impact that was $0.03 worse than our guidance.

從我們的指導中點 1.03 美元來看，我們的結果包括營運績效略低 0.01 美元，由於本季度股票回購導致加權平均股數降低，產生 0.01 美元的正面影響，稅率略低，產生 0.02 美元的正面影響，以及外匯影響比我們的指導差 0.03 美元。

Restructuring costs and other items represented $0.55, resulting in the reported EPS of $0.47.

重組成本和其他項目為 0.55 美元，導致報告的每股收益為 0.47 美元。

Next, let’s review our revenue by business line.

接下來，我們來回顧一下各業務線的收入。

Year over year, on an organic constant currency basis, the Manpower brand declined 1% in the quarter, the Experis brand declined by 6%, and the Talent Solutions brand had a revenue increase of 6%.

與去年同期相比，以有機固定匯率計算，本季 Manpower 品牌營收下降 1%，Experis 品牌營收下降 6%，而 Talent Solutions 品牌營收成長 6%。

Within Talent Solutions, our RPO business experienced a year-over-year revenue increase, which was an improvement from the trend in the third quarter.

在人才解決方案方面，我們的 RPO 業務收入年增，較第三季的趨勢有所改善。

Our MSP business recorded a strong double-digit revenue increase compared to the prior year, while Right Management experienced a year-over-year revenue decline in the quarter, as outplacement activity began to slow.

與去年相比，我們的 MSP 業務收入實現了強勁的兩位數成長，而由於再就業活動開始放緩，Right Management 本季營收年減。

Looking at our gross profit margin in detail, our gross margin came in at 17.2% for the quarter.

詳細看一下我們的毛利率，本季我們的毛利率為17.2％。

Staffing margin contributed a 30-basis-point reduction due to mix shifts, lower bench utilization in December in select countries, and lower volumes while pricing remained stable.

由於產品組合變動、部分國家 12 月工作台利用率下降以及產量下降，員工利潤率下降了 30 個基點，但價格保持穩定。

Experis Services contributed a 10-basis-point reduction due to lower volumes.

由於交易量下降，Experis Services 的利潤減少了 10 個基點。

Other items resulted in a 10-basis-point margin increase.

其他項目導致利潤率增加10個基點。

Moving on to our gross profit by business line.

接下來是按業務線劃分的毛利。

During the quarter, the Manpower brand comprised 59% of gross profit, our Experis Professional Business comprised 23%, and Talent Solutions comprised 18%.

本季度，Manpower 品牌毛利佔 59%，Experis 專業業務佔 23%，人才解決方案佔 18%。

During the quarter, our consolidated gross profit decreased by 4% on an organic constant currency basis year over year, representing a stable trend from the 4% decline in the third quarter.

本季度，我們的綜合毛利以有機固定匯率計算年減 4%，與第三季 4% 的降幅相比呈現穩定趨勢。

Our Manpower brand reported an organic gross profit decrease of 3% in constant currency year over year, a slight decline from the 2% decrease in the third quarter.

我們的 Manpower 品牌報告稱，以固定匯率計算，有機毛利潤年減 3%，較第三季 2% 的降幅略有下降。

Gross profit in our Experis brand decreased 11% in organic constant currency year over year, a slight improvement from the 12% decrease in the third quarter.

我們 Experis 品牌的毛利以有機固定匯率計算年減 11%，較第三季 12% 的降幅略有改善。

Gross profit in Talent Solutions increased 7% in organic constant currency year over year, representing ongoing growth although at a slightly lower pace from the third quarter increase of 9%.

人才解決方案業務的毛利以有機固定匯率計算年增 7%，代表持續成長，儘管增幅略低於第三季 9% 的水平。

RPO and MSP saw improved year-over-year gross profit growth in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter, while Right Management gross profit declined slightly.

第四季RPO和MSP毛利年增率較上一季提高，而Right Management毛利則略有下降。

Reported SG&A expense in the quarter was $687 million. SG&A

本季報告的銷售、一般及行政費用為 6.87 億美元。銷售、一般及行政開支

as adjusted was down 4% year over year on a constant currency basis and down 3% on an organic constant currency basis.

經調整後，以固定匯率計算，年減 4%，以有機固定匯率計算，下降 3%。

The year-over-year SG&A decreases largely consisted of reductions in operational costs of $20 million.

與去年同期相比，銷售、一般及行政費用的減少主要包括 2,000 萬美元的營運成本減少。

Underlying corporate costs continue to include our back-office transformation spend, and these programs are progressing well with expected medium and long-term efficiencies.

企業的基本成本繼續包括我們的後台轉型支出，這些專案進展順利，預計中長期效率將提高。

Currency changes also contributed to a $7 million decrease.

貨幣變化也導致了 700 萬美元的減少。

Adjusted SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue represented 15% in constant currency in the fourth quarter.

第四季度，調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔收入的百分比以固定匯率計算為 15%。

Adjustments represented restructuring costs of $16 million, and a loss on sale related to our Austria business recorded an SG&A of $2 million.

調整代表重組成本為 1600 萬美元，與奧地利業務相關的銷售損失記錄了 200 萬美元的銷售、一般和行政費用。

The Americas segment comprised 24% of consolidated revenue.

美洲分部佔合併收入的24%。

Revenue in the quarter was $1.1 billion, representing an increase of 7% compared to the prior year period on a constant currency basis.

本季營收為 11 億美元，以固定匯率計算比去年同期成長 7%。

As adjusted, OUP was $39 million and OUP margin was 3.6%.

經調整後，OUP 為 3,900 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 3.6%。

Restructuring charges of $4 million largely represented the US and Canada.

400萬美元的重組費用主要來自美國和加拿大。

The US is the largest country in the Americas segment, comprising 65% of segment revenues.

美國是美洲分部最大的國家，佔該分部收入的65%。

Revenue in the US was $692 million during the quarter, representing a 1% days-adjusted decrease compared to the prior year.

本季美國營收為 6.92 億美元，經調整天數後較上年同期下降 1%。

This represents an improvement from the 4% decline in the third quarter, as Manpower and Talent Solutions growth partially offset a decline in Experis.

這比第三季 4% 的降幅有所改善，因為人力和人才解決方案的成長部分抵消了 Experis 的降幅。

As adjusted, OUP for our US business was $19 million in the quarter.

經調整後，本季我們美國業務的 OUP 為 1,900 萬美元。

As adjusted, OUP margin was 2.8%.

經調整後，OUP 利潤率為 2.8%。

Within the US, the Manpower brand comprised 26% of gross profit during the quarter.

在美國，Manpower 品牌佔本季毛利的 26%。

Revenue for the Manpower brand in the US increased 2% on a days-adjusted basis during the quarter, which was an improvement from the 1% increase in the third quarter.

本季度，美國 Manpower 品牌的營收以天數調整後計算成長了 2%，高於第三季 1% 的增幅。

The Experis brand in the US comprised 39% of gross profit in the quarter.

美國 Experis 品牌佔本季毛利的 39%。

Within Experis in the US, IT skills comprised approximately 90% of revenues.

在美國的 Experis 公司中，IT 技能約佔營收的 90%。

Experis US revenue decreased 6% on a days-adjusted basis during the quarter, an improvement from the 11% decline in the third quarter.

本季度，Experis 美國營收以天數調整後計算下降了 6%，較第三季 11% 的降幅有所改善。

Talent Solutions in the US contributed 35% of gross profit and saw a revenue increase of 16% in the quarter, an improvement from the 10% increase in the third quarter.

美國人才解決方案業務貢獻了35%的毛利，本季營收成長16%，增幅高於第三季的10%。

RPO experienced double-digit revenue increases in the US, reflecting increased activity in select client programs.

RPO 在美國實現了兩位數的營收成長，反映出精選客戶計畫活動的增加。

The US MSP business executed well during the quarter, posting strong double-digit revenue increases as well, while outplacement activity within our Right Management business was down slightly year over year as outplacement activity slowed.

本季度，美國 MSP 業務表現良好，收入也實現了強勁的兩位數增長，而我們的 Right Management 業務中的再就業活動因再就業活動放緩而同比略有下降。

In the first quarter of 2025, we expect the rate of revenue decline to range from similar to a slight further decline than the fourth quarter trend for our overall US business.

2025 年第一季度，我們預期營收下降率將與美國業務整體第四季的趨勢相似或略有下降。

Southern Europe revenue comprised 47% of consolidated revenue in the quarter.

南歐收入佔本季綜合收入的 47%。

Revenue in Southern Europe was $2 billion, representing a 3% decrease in constant currency.

南歐地區收入為 20 億美元，以固定匯率計算下降了 3%。

As adjusted, OUP for our Southern Europe business was $73 million in the quarter and OUP margin was 3.6%.

經調整後，本季我們南歐業務的 OUP 為 7,300 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 3.6%。

Restructuring charges of $2 million primarily represented actions in Spain and Italy.

200萬美元的重組費用主要來自西班牙和義大利的行動。

France revenue comprised 56% of the Southern Europe segment in the quarter and decreased 7% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis.

本季度，法國營收佔南歐地區的 56%，以天數調整後的固定匯率計算下降了 7%。

As adjusted, OUP for our France business was $36 million in the quarter.

經過調整後，本季我們法國業務的 OUP 為 3,600 萬美元。

Adjusted OUP margin was 3.2%.

調整後的 OUP 利潤率為 3.2%。

Activity to date in January is lower than the trends experienced in the fourth quarter, and we are cautiously estimating the first-quarter trend to reflect a slight further decline from the fourth-quarter trend.

一月份迄今為止的活動低於第四季度的趨勢，我們謹慎估計第一季的趨勢將比第四季的趨勢略有下降。

Revenue in Italy equaled $419 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting a decrease of 1% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis.

義大利第四季營收為 4.19 億美元，以天數調整後的固定匯率計算下降了 1%。

OUP equaled $26 million, and OUP margin was 6.3%.

OUP 相當於 2,600 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 6.3%。

We estimate that Italy will have a similar to slightly improved revenue trend in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter.

我們預計義大利第一季的營收趨勢將與第四季類似或略有改善。

Our Northern Europe segment comprised 17% of the consolidated revenue in the quarter.

我們北歐部門佔本季綜合收入的 17%。

Revenue of $768 million represented a 16% decline in constant currency.

7.68 億美元的營收以固定匯率計算下降了 16%。

As adjusted, OUP was a $10 million loss.

經過調整後，牛津大學出版社虧損 1000 萬美元。

This is the most challenged part of our business, subject to low economic growth rates with many markets operating a bench model, which creates higher financial and operational pressures than we see in other markets.

這是我們業務中最具挑戰性的部分，受制於低經濟成長率，許多市場都採用基準模式，這帶來了比其他市場更大的財務和營運壓力。

The majority of the restructuring charges of $6 million was recorded in Germany, with modest additional charges in the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK.

600 萬美元的重組費用大部分發生在德國，另有少量額外費用發生在荷蘭、瑞典和英國。

Our largest market in the Northern Europe segment is the UK, which represented 34% of segment revenues in the quarter.

我們在北歐地區最大的市場是英國，佔本季地區營收的 34%。

During the quarter, UK revenues decreased 22% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis.

本季度，英國營收以天數調整後的固定匯率計算下降了 22%。

The UK market continues to be very challenging, and we expect the rate of revenue decline to continue to be similar in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter.

英國市場仍然充滿挑戰，我們預計第一季的營收下降率將繼續與第四季相似。

In Germany, revenues decreased 24% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis in the quarter.

在德國，本季營收以天數調整後的固定匯率計算下降了 24%。

Germany manufacturing trends have been weak, driving further declines.

德國製造業趨勢疲軟，導致進一步下滑。

In the first quarter, we are expecting a similar year-over-year revenue decline compared to the fourth-quarter trend.

我們預計第一季的營收年減幅度將與第四季的趨勢類似。

The Nordics continue to experience very difficult market conditions, with revenues decreasing 21% in days-adjusted constant currency in the quarter.

北歐地區持續經歷非常困難的市場環境，本季營收以天數調整後固定匯率計算下降了 21%。

Within the Nordics, Sweden is experiencing the largest declines based on a weak manufacturing environment and the adjustment to new temporary worker term limits discussed last quarter.

在北歐，瑞典由於製造業環境疲軟，以及上個季度討論的新的臨時工任期限制的調整，正在經歷最大的跌幅。

The Asia Pacific Middle East segment comprises 12% of total company revenue.

亞太中東地區收入占公司總收入的12%。

In the quarter, revenues equaled $522 million, representing an increase of 7% in organic constant currency after incorporating the sale and franchising of our South Korea business which completed as expected on November 1.

本季度，營收達到 5.22 億美元，在計入 11 月 1 日按預期完成的韓國業務的出售和特許經營後，按有機固定匯率計算增長了 7%。

As adjusted, OUP was $27 million and OUP margin was 5.1%.

經調整後，OUP 為 2,700 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 5.1%。

Restructuring charges of $1 million relate to actions taken in our New Caledonia business.

100萬美元的重組費用與我們在新喀裡多尼亞業務中採取的行動有關。

The largest market in the APME segment is Japan, which represented 57% of segment revenues in the quarter.

APME 部門最大的市場是日本，佔本季部門營收的 57%。

Revenue in Japan grew 7% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis.

以天數調整後的固定匯率計算，日本的營收成長了 7%。

We remain very pleased with the consistent performance of our Japan business, and we expect continued strong revenue growth in the first quarter.

我們對日本業務的持續表現感到非常滿意，我們預計第一季的營收將繼續強勁成長。

I’ll now turn to cash flow and balance sheet.

我現在來談談現金流和資產負債表。

In full year 2024, free cash flow equaled $258 million, compared to $270 million in the prior year.

2024 年全年自由現金流為 2.58 億美元，而前一年為 2.7 億美元。

In the fourth quarter, we drove a strong finish to the year, and free cash flow represented $236 million and compares to $91 million in the prior year.

第四季度，我們以強勁的業績結束了這一年度，自由現金流達到 2.36 億美元，而去年同期為 9,100 萬美元。

At year-end, days sales outstanding decreased by about 3 days to just under 52 days.

截至年底，應收帳款週轉天數減少了約3天，降至略低於52天。

During the fourth quarter, capital expenditures represented $11 million.

第四季度，資本支出為 1,100 萬美元。

During the fourth quarter, we repurchased 552,000 shares of stock for $34 million.

第四季度，我們以 3,400 萬美元回購了 552,000 股股票。

As of December 31, we have 2.6 million shares remaining for repurchase under the share program approved in August of 2023.

截至 12 月 31 日，根據 2023 年 8 月批准的股票計劃，我們仍有 260 萬股可供回購。

Our balance sheet ended the quarter with cash of $509 million and total debt of $953 million.

我們的資產負債表顯示本季末現金為 5.09 億美元，總負債為 9.53 億美元。

Net debt equaled $443 million at quarter-end.

季末淨債務為 4.43 億美元。

Our debt ratios at year-end reflect total gross debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA of 2.1 and total debt to total capitalization at 31%.

我們年末的負債比率反映出總負債與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 2.1，總負債與總資本的比率為 31%。

Our debt and credit facilities arrangements are displayed in the appendix of the presentation.

我們的債務和信貸安排顯示在簡報的附錄中。

Next, I'll review our outlook for the first quarter of 2025.

接下來，我將回顧我們對 2025 年第一季的展望。

Based on trends in the fourth quarter and January activity to date, our forecast is cautious and anticipates that the first quarter will continue to be challenging in Europe.

根據第四季和一月份迄今為止的活動趨勢，我們的預測是謹慎的，並預計第一季歐洲將繼續面臨挑戰。

When considering our guidance for the first quarter, it is also important to note the following unique considerations which drive lower revenue and earnings per share impacts year over year.

在考慮我們對第一季的指導時，還必須注意以下獨特的考慮因素，這些因素導致收入和每股收益的影響同比下降。

One, the strengthened US dollar has created a significant year-over-year negative foreign currency translation impact.

一是美元走強對外幣折算產生了同比顯著的負面衝擊。

Two, there are less working days in the first quarter of 2025, driven by the leap year in the prior year.

二是2025年第一季的工作日較少，原因是去年是閏年。

Three, there is always a meaningful sequential seasonal decrease in earnings from the fourth quarter to the first quarter.

三，從第四季到第一季度，收益總是會出現明顯的季節性下降。

Four, the prior year period benefited from an unusually low effective tax rate, and the current tax rate guidance is more aligned to the expected full-year rate.

四、去年同期受惠於異常低的有效稅率，目前稅率指引與預期的全年稅率更為一致。

Because the first quarter is typically the lowest earnings level of the calendar year, these impacts have a more significant impact on the first quarter’s earnings than would be the case in other quarters.

由於第一季通常是全年收益水準最低的季度，因此這些影響對第一季收益的影響比其他季度更為顯著。

With that said, we are forecasting earnings per share for the first quarter to be in the range of $0.47 to $0.57. The guidance range also includes an unfavorable foreign currency impact of $0.06 per share, and our foreign currency translation rate estimates are disclosed at the bottom of the guidance slide.

話雖如此，我們預測第一季每股收益將在 0.47 美元至 0.57 美元之間。指導範圍還包括每股 0.06 美元的不利外幣影響，我們的外幣折算率估計在指導幻燈片的底部披露。

Our constant currency revenue guidance range is between a decrease of 5% and 9% and at the midpoint is a 7% decrease.

我們的固定匯率收入預測範圍在下降 5% 到 9% 之間，中間值為下降 7%。

Considering a slightly lower number of working days and the impact of our dispositions, our organic days-adjusted constant currency revenue decrease represents 5% at the midpoint.

考慮到工作日數量略有減少以及我們處置的影響，我們的有機天數調整後的固定匯率收入減少額中位數為 5%。

EBITA margin for the first quarter is projected to be down 30 basis points at the midpoint compared to the prior year.

預計第一季的 EBITA 利潤率將比去年同期下降 30 個基點。

We estimate that the effective tax rate for the first quarter will be 36%, which reflects the overall mix effect of lower earnings from lower tax geographies in the current environment, as well as the impact of valuation allowances in certain markets which will reverse in the future when those markets rebound.

我們預計第一季的有效稅率為36%，這反映了當前環境下低稅率地區獲利較低的整體組合效應，以及某些市場的估值準備金的影響，這些影響將在未來市場反彈時逆轉。

We estimate 36% for the full-year effective tax rate as well.

我們預計全年有效稅率為36%。

As the Government of France has not enacted any of their previously proposed corporate tax changes, we have not incorporated any increase in France corporate taxes into our guidance.

由於法國政府尚未頒布任何先前提出的企業稅改措施，因此我們沒有將法國企業稅的增加納入我們的指導範圍。

In addition, as usual, our guidance does not incorporate restructuring charges or additional share repurchases, and we estimate our weighted average shares to be 47.5 million.

此外，與往常一樣，我們的指引不包括重組費用或額外的股票回購，我們估計我們的加權平均股份為 4,750 萬股。

I will now turn it back to Jonas.

我現在將話題轉回給喬納斯。

Thank you, Jack.

謝謝你，傑克。

In late 2019, we recognized that we were operating in a new environment, and that to continue to be successful, we needed a refreshed strategy to respond to tech acceleration, structural talent scarcity, and increasing demand for specialist talent.

2019 年末，我們意識到我們正處於一個新的環境中，為了繼續取得成功，我們需要製定新的策略來應對技術加速、結構性人才稀缺以及對專業人才日益增長的需求。

This context persists today.

這種背景至今仍然存在。

Our latest Talent Shortage survey of 38,000 employers found talent shortages remain very high, with 74% of companies struggling to find the skilled, specialist talent they need to be successful, up from 36% a decade ago.

我們最近對 38,000 名雇主進行的人才短缺調查發現，人才短缺問題仍然十分嚴重，74% 的公司難以找到成功所需的熟練專業人才，這一比例高於十年前的 36%。

To position us for success, we introduced our DDI strategy -- diversification, digitization, and innovation -- with three clear objectives: strengthen EBITA, grow our overall revenues at or above market, and position our company for many more successful decades to come.

為了獲得成功，我們推出了 DDI 策略——多元化、數位化和創新——有三個明確的目標：提高 EBITA、使我們的整體收入達到或超過市場水平，並為公司在未來幾十年取得更多成功做好準備。

Diversification includes increasing the weighting of higher-margin offerings across each of our strong and distinct brands -- Manpower, Experis, and Talent Solutions -- enabled by data-driven insights, informing us where we need to move the needle to win in the market.

多樣化包括在我們每個強大而獨特的品牌（Manpower、Experis和Talent Solutions）中增加高利潤產品的權重，透過數據驅動的洞察力來實現，告訴我們需要在哪些方面採取行動才能在市場上獲勝。

Our data tells us where we can expect to see growth by industry, and we have evolved our organizational structures to create even deeper vertical expertise across targeted industries, including consumer goods, financials and real estate, healthcare and life sciences, industrials and tech, with talented teams equipped with the insight and specialist offerings to win in priority segments.

我們的數據告訴我們哪些行業將會實現成長，並且我們已經改進了組織結構，以在目標行業（包括消費品、金融和房地產、醫療保健和生命科學、工業和科技）創造更深的垂直專業知識，並擁有具備洞察力和專業知識的優秀團隊，以在優先領域取得成功。

This, combined with our AI-enabled dashboards sourced from our data platforms, enable us to track industry trends even more closely, reducing volatility to market variances, enabling greater agility to pursue new market opportunities, and prioritizing our sales teams' time on the opportunities that will provide greatest business impact.

結合我們數據平台的支援人工智慧的儀表板，我們可以更密切地追蹤行業趨勢，降低市場波動性，提高靈活性以尋求新的市場機會，並優先安排銷售團隊的時間用於對業務影響最大的機會。

Digitization is a key enabler for productivity and innovation, providing the data and insights that create greater value for our clients and candidates while leveraging analytics and AI to drive recruiter productivity and improve the candidate journey.

數位化是提高生產力和創新的關鍵推動因素，它提供數據和見解，為我們的客戶和候選人創造更大的價值，同時利用分析和人工智慧來提高招募人員的工作效率並改善候選人的旅程。

We are pleased with our progress in this area.

我們對這一領域的進展感到非常高興。

Our industry-leading technology platform, PowerSuite, enables us to harness our rich, high-quality global data together with AI to focus our activities where they will make most impact, unlocking candidate potential and enabling our talent agents and recruiters to focus their time on mentoring, coaching, and guiding the millions of candidates we interact with each year.

我們業界領先的技術平台 PowerSuite 使我們能夠利用豐富的高品質全球數據和人工智慧，將我們的活動集中在最有影響力的領域，釋放候選人的潛力，使我們的人才代理和招聘人員能夠集中時間指導、培訓和引導我們每年與之互動的數百萬候選人。

Despite the challenging market conditions in 2024, we made good progress on executing our DDI strategies and competed well in many markets, setting us up for continued progress into 2025 and beyond.

儘管 2024 年的市場條件充滿挑戰，但我們在執行 DDI 策略方面取得了良好進展，並在許多市場中保持了良好的競爭力，為 2025 年及以後的持續進步奠定了基礎。

We continue to take a laser-focused approach to managing costs, adjusting to the current environment in many markets, while maintaining our investment in technology and digitization and retaining the talent we need for improved competitive performance.

我們繼續採取高度集中的方法來管理成本，適應許多市場的當前環境，同時保持對技術和數位化的投資，並保留提高競爭力所需的人才。

A big thank you to our teams around the world for all they do each day to connect even more people to meaningful work and to our clients and candidates for trusting us as their workforce and career partners.

非常感謝我們在世界各地的團隊，感謝他們每天的努力，讓更多的人獲得有意義的工作，也感謝我們的客戶和求職者信任我們，選擇我們作為他們的員工和職業夥伴。

I'd now like to open the line to Q&A.

現在我想開始問答環節。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的 Andrew Steinerman。

Hi, Jack.

你好，傑克。

I'm really just going to ask you to repeat the bridge between the adjusted $1.02 that we just reported and the midpoint $0.52 guided for the first quarter.

我真的只是想請你重複一下我們剛剛報告的調整後 1.02 美元和第一季指導中點 0.52 美元之間的橋樑。

I know you're guiding for bigger revenue declines and first quarter is a naturally seasonally skinny quarter, so that revenue effect has more of an SG&A effect.

我知道您預計收入將大幅下降，而且第一季自然是一個季節性疲軟的季度，因此收入效應更多的是銷售、一般及行政費用的影響。

But just if you could walk us through from the $1.02, what would be a normal seasonal first-quarter EPS and then layer on the factors that you gave in the prepared remarks?

但是，如果您能從 1.02 美元開始向我們介紹一下，正常季節性第一季度每股收益是多少，然後再根據您在準備好的評論中給出的因素進行分層呢？

Thanks for the question, Andrew.

謝謝你的提問，安德魯。

I guess I'd like to start in explaining that with the EBITA margin, which is what it all is driven by.

我想先從 EBITA 利潤率來解釋一下，這就是所有一切的驅動因素。

And as we look sequentially from Q4 to Q1, and as you referenced, my prepared remarks walk through some of the considerations as we start the year from when we ended the year.

當我們從第四季度依次回顧第一季時，正如您所提到的，我準備好的評論將概述我們從年初到年末的一些考慮因素。

But we're effectively moving down 60 basis points sequentially from the 2.1% that we just posted to the guide of 1.5%.

但我們實際上正從剛發布的 2.1% 連續下調 60 個基點至 1.5% 的指導值。

And I'd say that is in line with what we've seen traditionally as we end the year and start the year.

我想說，這與我們在年底和年初所看到的傳統情況一致。

If you go back the last two years, we were down about 70 bps sequentially from Q4 to Q1.

如果回顧過去兩年，從第四季到第一季度，我們的利潤連續下降了約 70 個基點。

Take the pandemic years out of the mix, and if you go back to pre-pandemic, we've been down 130 bps at times.

除去疫情期間的因素，如果回到疫情之前，我們的成長率有時會下降 130 個基點。

So it really just kind of depends on what's happening.

所以這實際上取決於發生的事情。

Where we are now, in line with what we talked through, I'd say underlying levels are generally stable across a lot of our large markets in Europe and North America.

就目前情況而言，根據我們討論的內容，我想說，我們在歐洲和北美的許多大型市場的基本水平總體上是穩定的。

We did call out a couple areas where perhaps there's a little more pressure going into Q1, and we did say we're a bit cautious on France currently.

我們確實指出了幾個可能在第一季面臨更多壓力的領域，我們也確實說過我們目前對法國持謹慎態度。

But I'd say when you put all that together, that is what is driving the sequential drop-down in the bottom line.

但我想說，當你把所有這些因素放在一起時，這就是推動底線連續下降的原因。

It's driven by the EBITA dollars, EBITA margin that's coming.

這是由即將到來的 EBITA 美元和 EBITA 利潤率推動的。

I think on the revenue side, I think we also laid out the revenue is impacted significantly by net disposition.

我認為在收入方面，我們也指出收入受到淨處置的重大影響。

So we talked about Korea, and then we just announced Austria as well as part of our disposition.

因此，我們討論了韓國問題，然後我們剛剛宣布了奧地利問題以及我們的部分處置方案。

That would not have been in our previous -- in what people were looking at in terms of expectations for Q1.

這與之前人們對第一季的預期不一樣。

So now that's being introduced, and we have less days.

現在已經實施了這項措施，我們的時間卻變少了。

And so we've talked about that as well.

我們也討論過這個問題。

So I think when you put all that together, our revenue trend on an organic days-adjusted basis is down in a range of about 2% sequentially.

因此，我認為，當把所有這些因素綜合起來時，我們按有機天數調整後的收入趨勢環比下降約 2%。

And I think as you consider that, you can think about APME and LatAm, which is seeing a traditional lack of seasonality going into the first quarter from the fourth quarter as a lot of that Q4 work, seasonal work, runs off, and we start the year again and reset a lot of those quarterly contracts.

我認為，當您考慮到這一點時，您可以想想 APME 和 LatAm，它們從第四季度到第一季度經歷了傳統的季節性缺乏，因為很多第四季度的工作，季節性工作，都已經結束，而我們又從新的一年開始重新設定了很多季度合約。

A bit of that in the US as well.

美國也存在一些這樣的情況。

We had a relatively good Q4 in Talent Solutions on some select RPO programs that drove revenues, and Manpower had an encouraging strong second half of the year in the US as well.

我們在人才解決方案領域的第四季表現相對較好，一些精選的 RPO 專案推動了營收成長，而 Manpower 在美國下半年的表現也十分強勁。

And we see, as we move into Q1, traditional seasonality and the reset of some of those contracts as well.

我們看到，隨著進入第一季度，傳統的季節性和一些合約的重置也隨之而來。

And we don't mention it much, but Canada would be another one that's seeing a bit of an impact based on the pullback on the government public sector spend, particularly on the Experis side.

我們很少提及這一點，但加拿大也是受到政府公共部門支出（尤其是 Experis 方面）減少影響的國家之一。

So I'd say those are the main drivers when we think about revenues and bottom-line earnings.

所以我認為，當我們考慮收​​入和底線收益時，這些是主要的驅動因素。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for the details.

謝謝你的詳細資料。

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Manav Patnaik。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

This is Princy Thomas on for Manav.

這是 Princy Thomas 代替 Manav 上場。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

So I wanted to dig into the macros.

所以我想深入研究宏。

If they stay bad as they are, what actions will Manpower take to rightsize?

如果情況繼續糟糕，萬寶盛華將採取什麼措施來調整規模？

And when do you typically decide that?

您通常什麼時候做出這個決定？

Thanks for the question, Princy.

謝謝 Princy 的提問。

I'd say -- you saw that we took some additional actions in Q4.

我想說—您看到我們在第四季採取了一些額外的行動。

As we look at the environment, and to your question, clearly we're seeing a lot of pressure in certain markets in Northern Europe, and that's where when we look at the actions we've been taking are the most significant.

當我們觀察環境並回答您的問題時，我們清楚地看到北歐某些市場面臨很大的壓力，而當我們觀察我們所採取的行動時，這些市場的壓力最為顯著。

And I'd say they pretty much follow what you're seeing in terms of the revenue trend.

我想說，就收入趨勢而言，他們基本上遵循了你所看到的情況。

So as we look at FTEs and cost reductions, Northern Europe in the fourth quarter is down 15%, so very much aligned to what we've been seeing there in the revenue trends.

因此，當我們查看全職當量 (FTE) 和成本削減時，我們發現北歐第四季度的收入下降了 15%，與我們在那裡看到的收入趨勢非常一致。

In Southern Europe, you'd see more mid-single-digit percentage declines kind of in line with what we're seeing in certain markets in France and elsewhere.

在南歐，你會看到更多中等個位數的百分比下降，與我們在法國和其他地區某些市場看到的情況一致。

And I'd say similar in the US, continuing to take actions to preserve bottom line to the greatest degree possible, but at the same time making sure we have enough capacity on sales so that we're ready for the uptick when it begins.

我想說美國的情況也類似，我們會繼續採取行動，最大程度地維護我們的利潤，但同時確保我們有足夠的銷售能力，以便在銷售開始上漲時做好準備。

We did talk about the progress we're seeing in US Manpower, which is really encouraging.

我們確實談到了我們在美國人力方面看到的進展，這確實令人鼓舞。

And then we're also continuing to spend on our transformation programs, and we've been very consistent on that as well.

然後我們也將繼續在我們的轉型項目上投入，而且我們在這方面也一直非常堅持。

So that continues to be an ongoing focus for us and is in the run rate, and you can see that in our corporate run rate, even though we've pulled back in other areas to make sure we have continued capacity to continue to spend on those transformation programs.

因此，這仍然是我們持續關注的重點，並且體現在運行率中，您可以從我們的企業運行率中看到這一點，儘管我們已在其他領域縮減開支，以確保我們有能力繼續在這些轉型項目上投入。

But that will continue during 2025.

但這種情況也將持續到 2025 年。

So I think when you put all that together, you'll see that we're taking actions in the markets that are impacted the most while making sure that we're preserving capacity for sales in the markets we believe will be very well positioned to take market share when demand comes back.

因此，我認為，當你把所有這些放在一起時，你會看到我們正在受影響最大的市場採取行動，同時確保我們在那些我們認為當需求回升時能夠佔據非常有利市場份額的市場保留銷售能力。

Got it.

知道了。

And then switching over to more about the transitions.

然後轉到有關過渡的更多資訊。

MAN's been leading in tech, but I wanted to know if there's any use cases in GenAI being an enabler for Manpower and also any competitive threats that you're seeing within the space.

MAN 在技術方面一直處於領先地位，但我想知道 GenAI 是否有任何用例可以推動 Manpower 的發展，以及您在該領域看到的任何競爭威脅。

Thanks for the question, Princy.

謝謝 Princy 的提問。

As we mentioned in our prepared remarks, this was a big theme amongst all of the companies in the meeting that I attended a few weeks ago.

正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，這是我幾週前參加的會議中所有公司的重要主題。

And I would say that many companies are investing in AI.

我想說很多公司都在投資人工智慧。

They believe in the tremendous opportunity ahead.

他們相信未來會有巨大的機會。

They have yet to see any meaningful impact at scale.

他們尚未看到任何大規模的有意義的影響。

And a lot of that has to do with putting the right talent with the right skills in combination with GenAI.

這很大程度上與將合適的人才和合適的技能與 GenAI 結合有關。

And from our perspective, we have been preparing for this kind of technology evolution, and we're very pleased to see point-to-point solutions on what recruiters can do much faster from a productivity perspective, be that in reviewing candidates' resumes, identifying the best fit for those candidates to the job orders, and automating parts of the process.

從我們的角度來看，我們一直在為這種技術發展做準備，我們很高興看到點對點解決方案，從生產力的角度看，招聘人員可以更快地完成工作，包括審查候選人的簡歷、確定最適合該職位的候選人以及實現部分流程的自動化。

But I'd say that we are very much still at the beginning of this evolution.

但我想說，我們仍處於這演變的開始階段。

And it's a very exciting evolution because we are able to take our global infrastructure and technology platforms that generate significant rich data to inform and feed those models so that we can keep honing and driving greater productivity, identifying revenue growth opportunities, which we've already seen some good indications of where the likelihood is for growth, and we focus our sales efforts there.

這是一個非常令人興奮的演變，因為我們能夠利用我們的全球基礎設施和技術平台來產生大量豐富的數據，為這些模型提供資訊和支持，以便我們能夠不斷磨練和提高生產力，發現收入增長機會，我們已經看到了一些表明增長可能性很好的跡象，我們將銷售工作重點放在那裡。

But it is right at the beginning.

但這才剛開始。

We're extremely well placed to take advantage of this, and we're excited about the opportunity.

我們擁有極佳的優勢來利用這一點，我們對這個機會感到非常興奮。

Ultimately, though, the last-mile delivery and the judgment and the human capabilities is what makes the difference.

但最終，最後一哩路的交付、判斷和人的能力才是決定因素。

And that's why we're also investing in our talent agents and our recruiters, both to help them adopt to make data-driven decisions but fully leverage the tools and the insights that those tools generate to drive actions that may be different from what they traditionally would have experienced or done if they just were to go on experience and instinct.

這就是為什麼我們也在投資我們的人才代理人和招募人員，不僅幫助他們採用數據驅動的決策，而且充分利用這些工具以及這些工具產生的洞察力來推動他們採取可能與他們傳統上所經歷或所做的不同的行動，如果他們僅僅依靠經驗和直覺的話。

So we're very encouraged.

因此我們感到非常鼓舞。

It's early days, and I think we're right where we want to be in terms of being very well placed to take advantage of this evolution as it continues.

現在還為時過早，但我認為我們正處於有利位置，能夠充分利用這一持續的演變過程。

Appreciate the color.

感謝色彩。

Mark Marcon, Baird.

馬克馬康，貝爾德。

Good morning, Jonas and Jack.

早安，喬納斯和傑克。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

With regards to the US, you mentioned that there is an increasing level of confidence, and we've certainly seen that in certain surveys.

關於美國，您提到信心水準正在增強，我們在某些​​調查中也看到了這一點。

I'm just wondering, have you seen any indication that it's actually translating to an increase in orders?

我只是想知道，您是否看到任何跡象表明這實際上意味著訂單增加？

Can you give us any sense for what's happened post-election with regards to this order volume, tone of discussions with clients, anything along those lines, both in terms of the Manpower brand as well as Experis?

您能否告訴我們，選舉後，就訂單量、與客戶討論的基調等而言，以及任何類似情況，包括對 Manpower 品牌和 Experis 的影響？

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

Yeah, as we said in our prepared remarks, the tone has changed, and the level of optimism or hope is palpable, but it has yet to translate into anything meaningful in terms of change in employer behavior.

是的，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，基調已經改變，樂觀或希望的程度是顯而易見的，但就雇主行為的變化而言，它還沒有轉化為任何有意義的變化。

So it's all about employer confidence, and we are hopeful that given the overall sentiment, this increased employer confidence, translates in an increase in demand over time, but it's really too early to see any effect of that yet.

因此，這一切都與雇主信心有關，我們希望，鑑於整體情緒，雇主信心的增強將轉化為需求的長期增長，但現在還無法看到其產生任何影響。

As you point out, we're pleased to see that our Manpower business turned to growth in the second half of the year, which we think is positive.

正如您所指出的，我們很高興看到我們的人力資源業務在下半年成長，我們認為這是積極的。

We're very encouraged to see that US PMI is getting closer to 50, which is another positive aspect.

我們非常高興地看到美國PMI正在接近50，這是另一個積極的方面。

So there are some indicators and signals that could say it's starting to move.

因此有一些指標和訊號可以表明它開始移動。

Manpower tends to be the brand leading the way in terms of the rebound from a cyclical industry cycle.

在產業週期性反彈方面，萬寶盛華 (Manpower) 往往是引領潮流的品牌。

And from an Experis perspective, we're really not seeing any change in terms of demand.

從 Experis 的角度來看，我們確實沒有看到需求方面有任何變化。

It is stable at lower levels.

在較低水平時它是穩定的。

We can still see a challenging demand environment as it relates to enterprise clients, although our convenience clients are faring a little bit better.

雖然我們的便利客戶的情況稍好一些，但我們仍然看到與企業客戶相關的需求環境充滿挑戰。

They're holding up better.

他們表現得更好。

It's still a low demand environment for both Manpower and Experis.

對於 Manpower 和 Experis 來說，現在仍然是一個需求較低的環境。

But we're seeing some degree of, shall we say, optimism looking ahead as it relates to the US.

但我們看到，就美國而言，前景呈現出某種程度的樂觀情緒。

Thanks for that.

謝謝。

And then with regards to Europe, obviously it's been difficult for multiple years.

至於歐洲，顯然多年來情況一直很困難。

You mentioned at Davos that there was an increased sense of urgency.

您提到在達沃斯，人們的緊迫感有所增強。

I mean, from your perspective, how long before we actually start seeing some improvement in the underlying macro?

我的意思是，從您的角度來看，多久我們才能真正開始看到底層宏觀經濟的改善？

Obviously, we're going up again -- we'll increasingly go up against easier and easier comps.

顯然，我們又要上升了——我們將會越來越多地面對越來越容易的對手。

But just in terms of getting to an inflection, what would be some of the catalysts that we should look for?

但就實現轉折而言，我們應該尋找哪些催化劑？

And I'd be particularly interested in any comments with regards to France, particularly given their fiscal deficits.

我對有關法國的評論特別感興趣，特別是考慮到他們的財政赤字。

Any more commentary with regards to the prospects in terms of the French tax rate?

關於法國稅率的前景還有什麼評論嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Well, stepping back, looking at Europe as a whole, for many of you on the call have been tracking Europe, you'll be somewhat surprised to see that it's really shifted between Northern Europe and Southern Europe.

好吧，退一步來看整個歐洲，對於電話會議中的許多人來說，他們一直在關注歐洲，你會有些驚訝地發現它確實在北歐和南歐之間轉移。

Northern Europe used to be the engine of growth and Southern Europe was always trailing behind.

北歐曾經是成長的引擎，而南歐一直落後。

And right now, it's exactly the opposite, which is precisely what we're seeing in our business as well.

而現在，情況卻截然相反，這正是我們在我們的業務中看到的情況。

Italy and Spain and others are actually growing and growing well and maintaining profitability, yet Northern Europe is struggling significantly.

義大利、西班牙等國家實際上正在成長，而且成長良好，保持了獲利能力，但北歐卻舉步維艱。

And I would say this, Mark, there are a number of factors that, of course, is impacting the performance, in particular Northern Europe, which for us, of course, makes it even more difficult because many of the countries in Northern Europe operate bench models.

馬克，我想說的是，有很多因素當然會影響業績，特別是北歐，這對我們來說當然使情況更加困難，因為北歐許多國家都採用基準模型。

So when volumes go down, it's difficult for us to quickly adjust our cost base so that we can mitigate the impact of that drop in demand.

因此，當產量下降時，我們很難快速調整成本基礎，以減輕需求下降的影響。

But Europe has been hit over the past couple of years with continued economic slippage against other nations, China, the US.

但過去幾年，歐洲經濟相對於中國、美國等其他國家持續下滑，遭受重創。

It's undergoing a significant environmental transition, which is costing a lot of money and causing industry troubles in terms of the cost of energy being high.

它正在經歷重大的環境轉型，這耗費了大量資金，並因能源成本高昂而給行業帶來了麻煩。

And then, of course, the Ukraine war, which is another disrupting factor.

當然，還有烏克蘭戰爭，這是另一個破壞因素。

So these are elements that are really weighing, especially on Northern Europe in particular.

所以這些因素確實很重要，特別是對北歐來說。

On Germany, which used to be the engine of growth, it has seen the longest post-war industrial decline in terms of length of time.

作為曾經的成長引擎的德國，卻經歷了戰後持續時間最長的工業衰退。

But I would say this, aside from the clearly beneficial effects of the ending -- the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, that would be a positive mark.

但我想說，除了結束烏克蘭敵對行動的明顯有益影響之外，這將是一個正面的標誌。

The underlying trends in terms of reduction of or estimated reduction to be announced probably by the ECB a bit later on today, continued declines in interest rates will be a positive, continued decline in inflation will be a positive.

歐洲央行可能在今天稍晚宣布降息或預計降息的基本趨勢，利率持續下降將是一個積極因素，通膨持續下降也將是一個積極因素。

And at some point, if US leads the way and starts to produce growth and distribute that growth as it normally does, Europe will follow along after some delay.

在某個時候，如果美國引領潮流並開始像往常一樣實現成長和分配，那麼歐洲也會在一段時間後效仿。

So the timing is difficult to estimate, Mark, but we really don't see anything structurally broken in Europe and in particular in Northern Europe.

所以馬克，時間很難估計，但我們確實沒有看到歐洲、特別是北歐有任何結構性問題。

We still see this as a cyclical downturn, a very challenging cyclical downturn.

我們仍然認為這是一個週期性衰退，一個非常具有挑戰性的週期性衰退。

And lastly, I would say these changes that we heard about in terms of the action plan to really deregulate and make it easier to do business in Europe, make sure that they invest in their workforce and upskill and reskill and prepare for the green and support the green transition, as well as the advent of AI, we think are positive steps as well.

最後，我想說，我們聽到的這些變化，就行動計劃而言，真正放鬆管制，使在歐洲做生意變得更加容易，確保他們投資於勞動力，提高技能和重新培訓，為綠色做好準備，支持綠色轉型，以及人工智能的出現，我們認為也是積極的步驟。

And I could really sense urgency and clarity that this was becoming very, very important from a policymaker perspective.

我確實能感覺到緊迫性和清晰度，從政策制定者的角度來看，這一點變得非常非常重要。

And then finally, coming to France, France has been in a politically very turbulent environment.

最後，談到法國，法國的政治環境一直非常動盪。

The prior government lasted only a short time after presenting an aggressive budget that would reduce the deficit.

上一屆政府在提出削減赤字的激進預算後，只維持了很短一段時間。

The new government has taken a slightly less aggressive view on the budget, and that is supposed to be voted on in March.

新政府對預算的態度稍微不那麼激進，該預算預計將在三月進行表決。

And they're still trying to find a way to ensure that the this budget gets the approval from all the various parties.

他們仍在想辦法確保預算得到各方的批准。

And we think that it's hard to tell -- it's difficult in terms of predicting what that outcome would be.

我們認為這很難說——很難預測結果會是什麼。

But all the parties in France know that no elections can occur before June.

但法國所有政黨都知道，六月之前不可能舉行選舉。

So I guess -- my guess would be that the likelihood that it passes could -- it could come to pass in March.

因此我猜測 — — 我的猜測是它通過的可能性是 — — 它可能在三月通過。

But we will continue to monitor the situation very carefully in France because it is going to be an important aspect of how we move forward.

但我們將繼續密切關注法國的局勢，因為這將成為我們未來發展的重要面向。

And just as in the US and elsewhere, it's all about employer confidence.

正如在美國和其他地方一樣，這一切都取決於雇主信心。

And the trends that we are seeing in France are impacted by employers that are still anticipating an economic growth in 2025, although more subdued than would have been forecast maybe eight months ago.

我們在法國看到的趨勢受到雇主的影響，他們仍然預計 2025 年經濟將會成長，儘管比八個月前的預測更低迷。

So they're still thinking this is going to be a growth economy, but they are very hesitant in terms of adding to their payrolls.

因此，他們仍然認為這將是一個成長型經濟，但在增加薪資方面卻非常猶豫。

And into your last question on taxes, I'll switch it over to Jack.

關於稅收的最後一個問題，我會把它轉給傑克。

Yeah.

是的。

On the tax rate Mark , it really is too early to tell at this stage.

關於稅率標記，現階段確實還為時過早。

We do know that as part of the updated budget, there is a component in there that would implement a higher tax rate for large companies.

我們確實知道，作為更新後的預算的一部分，其中一個部分將對大公司實施更高的稅率。

We would fall into that bucket.

我們就會陷入這種境地。

But it really -- there's a lot of discussions happening on components of the budget.

但事實上，關於預算的各個組成部分，人們正在進行大量討論。

So it's really hard to say what that is going to be.

所以真的很難說那會是什麼。

As I mentioned in my guide, it's not in our forecast.

正如我在指南中提到的，這不在我們的預測之內。

Any change to the current French tax -- corporate tax rate is not in is not factored in.

對法國現行稅收的任何變化－企業稅率均不予考慮。

If something does get enacted, as Jonas mentioned, through the beginning of March, we will adjust our effective tax rate for any changes coming out of any enacted rates rate changes in France as part of the new budget.

如果真的有某項法案通過，就像喬納斯提到的那樣，到 3 月初，我們將根據新預算中法國頒布的任何稅率變化來調整我們的有效稅率。

Right.

正確的。

Can I sneak one more in?

我可以再偷偷帶進去一個嗎？

Just on the dispositions, we've had Korea, and now Austria.

就部署而言，我們已經與韓國交涉過，現在又與奧地利交涉過。

Any more anticipated?

還有什麼期待嗎？

And can you discuss the pros and cons of those dispositions?

您能討論一下這些處置方式的優缺點嗎？

Well, Mark , we're always looking at our geographic portfolio of where we're present with our own subsidiaries or where we think that maybe a different setup would be more beneficial for value creation.

嗯，馬克，我們一直在關注我們的地理組合，看看我們在哪些地方有自己的子公司，或者我們認為不同的設置可能更有利於創造價值。

And our estimation was that Korea is a country that is where we have a strong business.

我們估計韓國是我們業務實力較強的國家。

But the outlook in terms of its growth rate, the stability of the country in terms of what can happen in terms of legislation affecting our industry was less promising.

但從成長率來看，以及從影響我們行業的立法來看國家穩定性的前景並不那麼樂觀。

And we had a very good partner that we could move with that is going to be able to compete better in those local markets.

我們有一個非常好的合作夥伴，與我們一起努力，能夠在當地市場上更好地競爭。

And this has been a process that we've been looking at each country -- looking at our geo footprint is something that we've been doing for a number of years, optimizing this footprint so that we really maximize our value creation opportunity in many markets.

這是我們關注每個國家的過程——關注我們的地理足跡是我們多年來一直在做的事情，優化這個足跡，以便我們真正最大限度地在許多市場創造價值。

And over the past number of years, we've transitioned about 17 countries to franchise operations.

在過去的幾年裡，我們已經在大約 17 個國家實施了特許經營模式。

And in most of those cases, they have actually seen some very good progress, and we're very pleased with how this has evolved.

在大多數情況下，他們實際上都看到了一些非常好的進展，我們對這一發展感到非常滿意。

And as you can imagine, there have been other circumstances such as Russia where we, in a timely way, exited that market just ahead of the invasion.

你可以想像，還有其他情況，例如在俄羅斯，我們在入侵之前及時退出了該市場。

So we take a balanced view of opportunity value creation, as well as risk.

因此，我們對機會價值創造和風險持平衡看法。

And we will continue to make that assessment also in other markets.

我們也將繼續在其他市場做出這項評估。

And we will, of course, keep everyone informed of when we make any changes to that geo portfolio.

當然，當我們對該地理投資組合做出任何變更時，我們會及時告知大家。

Super.

極好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Trevor Romeo, William Blair.

特雷弗·羅密歐，威廉·布萊爾。

Morning.

早晨。

I appreciate you taking the questions.

感謝您回答這些問題。

One thing I wanted to dig into was the Talent Solutions brand.

我想深入了解的一件事是人才解決方案品牌。

And I think it's back to year-over-year growth for the second consecutive quarter now.

我認為現在已經連續第二個季度實現同比增長。

You got some nice positive trends in RPO and MSP, it sounds like.

聽起來，您在 RPO 和 MSP 方面獲得了一些積極的趨勢。

But at the same time, the staffing businesses are still challenged.

但同時，人力資源服務業也面臨許多挑戰。

So just kind of wondering if you could talk about what's driving the improvement in MSP and RPO and how you reconcile the difference in trends versus the staffing business there.

所以我只是想問一下您是否可以談談推動 MSP 和 RPO 改進的因素，以及如何協調趨勢與人員配置業務之間的差異。

Trevor, this is Jack.

特雷弗，這是傑克。

Yeah, I'd be happy to talk to that in terms of some of the trends I talked to when we were going through the brands, maybe starting with MSP within Talent Solutions.

是的，我很樂意談論這個主題，就我們在討論品牌時談到的一些趨勢而言，也許可以從人才解決方案中的 MSP 開始。

So MSP has been growing steadily the entire year.

因此 MSP 全年一直在穩步成長。

And actually, we started the year closer to flattish.

事實上，今年年初我們的經濟表現較為平穩。

And then as we've talked about, every quarter has actually gotten stronger from that point forward.

正如我們所討論的，從那時起，每個季度實際上都變得更加強勁。

So really strong double-digit growth in the fourth quarter, higher than the growth level in the third quarter.

因此第四季確實實現了強勁的兩位數成長，高於第三季的成長水準。

And so our business just continues to perform very, very well in the market.

因此我們的業務在市場上繼續表現非常非常好。

We view ourselves as the leader of MSP, and it's certainly coming through in the trends that we've been seeing.

我們將自己視為 MSP 的領導者，而這確實體現在我們所看到的趨勢中。

RPO crossed over to growth in the fourth quarter globally for us.

對我們來說，RPO 在第四季度在全球範圍內實現了成長。

So after some significant declines in the first half of the year, which reflected the markets, we moved to a very modest decline in Q3 and then crossed over to growth in Q4.

因此，在經歷了上半年反映市場表現的大幅下滑之後，我們在第三季度出現了非常溫和的下滑，然後在第四季度轉為成長。

And RPO has been strong, particularly in our US business.

RPO 一直表現強勁，尤其是在我們的美國業務中。

We did mention in our prepared remarks we had some select clients that actually had some very good seasonal ramp-up work through the fourth quarter.

我們確實在準備好的演講中提到，我們的一些特定客戶在第四季度實際上進行了一些非常好的季節性提升工作。

So that was a bit of a bright spot.

所以這是一個亮點。

Still are not seeing broad-based hiring increases, in line with what Jonas was talking about earlier, but we are encouraged by the select programs that have been quite strong, and we'll continue to monitor more the broader side of that.

正如喬納斯之前所說的那樣，我們仍然沒有看到廣泛的招募成長，但我們對一些表現強勁的精選項目感到鼓舞，我們將繼續更多地關注更廣泛的方面。

And then I'd say lastly on Talent Solutions, Right Management, after growing pretty consistently in the first nine months of the year, we did see our placement volumes start to soften in the fourth quarter.

最後我想說的是，在人才解決方案方面，Right Management 在今年前九個月保持了相當穩定的成長，但我們確實看到我們的安置量在第四季開始下降。

So we did move into a very slight decline from a revenue perspective, closer to flat on an overall GP dollar progression year over year.

因此，從營收角度來看，我們確實出現了輕微下滑，與去年同期相比，整體毛利率成長接近持平。

And that's just reflecting what Jonas was referring to earlier, driven by the US, that outplacement activity has started to reduce, which we'll see.

這只是反映了喬納斯之前提到的，受美國推動，再就業活動已經開始減少，我們將會看到這一點。

That's an early indicator in some ways for hopefully our staffing businesses.

從某種程度上來說，這有望成為我們人力資源業務的早期指標。

But that's really what we've been seeing on the Talent Solutions side.

但這確實是我們在人才解決方案方面看到的情況。

So it's been really good to see that overall growth in the second half of the year, and we take that into the beginning of 2025.

因此，看到今年下半年的整體成長確實令人欣喜，我們將這種成長預期延續到 2025 年初。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Jack.

謝謝，傑克。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then for my follow-up, I just had one on APME.

然後對於我的後續行動，我剛剛在 APME 上進行了一次。

I think you're guiding in organic constant currency kind of down 1% to up 3% versus the up 7% you did in Q4.

我認為您預計有機固定匯率將會下降 1% 至上升 3%，而第四季則上升了 7%。

So could you just kind of speak to your outlook there?

那麼您能談談您的看法嗎？

It sounded like Japan is still pretty solid.

聽起來日本還是相當強大的。

So is there something else that's a bit of a headwind in Q1?

那麼，第一季還有哪些不利因素嗎？

Or is that just a little conservatism?

或者這只是有點保守主義？

How should we think about that?

我們該如何思考這個問題？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

No, I think it's exactly as you were indicating.

不，我認為正如您所說。

It's a slower seasonal start in Q1 for us.

對我們來說，第一季的季節性開局比較緩慢。

We feel really good about APME and the trends.

我們對 APME 和趨勢感到非常滿意。

Japan continues to just perform extremely well.

日本的表現持續出色。

We expect good, steady growth in Japan in the first quarter.

我們預計日本第一季經濟將實現良好、穩定的成長。

But with that being said, the region does see -- unlike what we were talking about in terms of Europe and in parts of North America, they did see some good seasonality in Q4, which resets as we start contracts up.

但話雖如此，該地區確實看到——與我們談論的歐洲和北美部分地區不同，他們確實在第四季度看到了一些良好的季節性，隨著我們開始簽訂合同，這種季節性將會重置。

So that's really it.

事實就是這樣。

We're not really seeing any big directional changes.

我們實際上並沒有看到任何重大的方向性變化。

I think good, steady progress.

我認為進展良好，並穩步推進。

India performing really, really well.

印度的表現確實非常出色。

We've done a great job on bottom-line margins in that market.

我們在該市場的利潤率方面做得很好。

And Jonas talked about South Korea, but we take a very, very strong franchise fee into the future.

喬納斯談到了韓國，但我們未來會收取非常高額的特許經營費。

So as that market continues to grow, we will benefit from that with a very strong franchise fee on that business growing into the future as well.

因此，隨著該市場的持續成長，我們將從中受益，並獲得未來該業務成長的非常豐厚的特許經營費。

So no, we feel good about APME, and it's really just more just resetting contracts and ramping up in the first quarter.

所以，我們對 APME 感覺很好，它實際上只是重新設定合約並在第一季度加大力度。

All right.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Kartik Mehta, Northcoast Research.

Kartik Mehta，Northcoast Research。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Jack or Jonas, you've talked a little bit about capacity, and Jack, you've talked about trying to maintain capacity and cost cuts as you try to figure out what's going to happen in the future.

傑克或喬納斯，你們談到了產能問題，而傑克，你們談到了在試圖弄清楚未來會發生什麼時試圖保持產能並削減成本。

I'm wondering, is there a way to look at where you are from a capacity standpoint, both here in the US and then maybe some of the European countries, which are bench countries for you?

我想知道，有沒有辦法從能力的角度來了解您所在的位置，無論是在美國還是在歐洲的一些國家，哪些是您處於領先地位？

Well, Kartik, I think we've been very careful in managing both costs and preserving firepower so that we're able to take advantage of improving market demand.

嗯，卡蒂克，我認為我們在管理成本和保存火力方面非常小心，以便能夠利用不斷增長的市場需求。

And we manage this in a way that you can see from an SG&A perspective, we're not reducing our costs in line with reduction in GP.

我們採取的方式是，從銷售、一般及行政開支 (SG&A) 的角度來看，我們並沒有根據毛利的減少來降低成本。

And so we believe we have ample space to actually take advantage of and improve the demand environment in Europe and the US.

因此，我們相信我們有足夠的空間來實際利用和改善歐洲和美國的需求環境。

And we've done that intentionally, of course, because we're we know how these cycles evolve and it's very important to maintain strength in the markets.

當然，我們這樣做是有意的，因為我們知道這些週期如何演變，保持市場強勁非常重要。

They focused on our clients and candidates and our associates and drive a very strong pipeline.

他們專注於我們的客戶、候選人和同事，並建立了非常強大的管道。

And we've been very pleased with the evolution of our sales pipeline.

我們對銷售通路的發展感到非常滿意。

It's grown significantly over the last 12 months.

在過去 12 個月裡，它實現了顯著成長。

Now, in an environment like this, those wins in that pipeline translate into maybe smaller deals.

現在，在這樣的環境下，這些管道中的勝利可能會轉化為規模較小的交易。

They take longer to close.

它們需要更長的時間才能關閉。

They don't accelerate as quickly.

它們的加速並不那麼快。

But when the market turns, then that becomes a really, really good foundation for some strong market and revenue performance.

但當市場轉變時，這就會成為強勁的市場和收入表現的真正良好的基礎。

So we've been very mindful of maintaining our strength in the market, yet also protecting the bottom line.

因此，我們一直非常注意保持我們的市場實力，同時也保護底線。

So to finding that balance is what we talk about every day for all of those markets where we're being and we're seeing challenging operating environments.

因此，對於我們所在的所有市場以及我們所面臨的充滿挑戰的營運環境，找到這種平衡是我們每天都在談論的話題。

And then just as a follow-up to the pricing environment, I know up to this point, you've not seen a lot of increased competition, even though maybe the fundamentals aren't as good as you would like or the industry would like.

然後作為對定價環境的後續關注，我知道到目前為止，儘管基本面可能不如您所希望的或行業所希望的那麼好，但您還沒有看到競爭加劇。

And I'm wondering if there's been any change in the pricing environment.

我想知道定價環境是否發生了任何變化。

It always remains a competitive pricing environment, but at the same time, it's been rational.

它始終保持著競爭性的定價環境，但同時又是理性的。

As you heard us say in our prepared remarks, the slight decline in the margin -- GP margin that we saw was related to mix.

正如您在我們準備好的演講中聽到的那樣，我們看到的毛利率略有下降與產品組合有關。

And I think this has a lot to do with the increasingly structural talent shortage and low unemployment that we're seeing both in the US as well as in Europe.

我認為這與我們在美國和歐洲看到的結構性人才短缺和低失業率日益嚴重有很大關係。

So demand -- the importance of talent and the difficulty of talent and the expense of finding talent remains high.

因此需求——人才的重要性、人才的難度以及尋找人才的費用仍然很高。

And therefore, clients really appreciate the quality of the specialized skills and the talent that we bring to them.

因此，客戶真正欣賞我們為他們帶來的專業技能和人才的品質。

And I think that is an indication that this is a bit of a difference compared to prior industry cycles that we were seeing in terms of the price stability at least at this point.

我認為這表明，至少目前，就價格穩定性而言，這與我們之前看到的行業週期相比略有不同。

Thank you for your time.

感謝您的時間。

I really appreciate it.

我非常感激。

Tobey Sommer, Truist Securities.

托比·索默（Tobey Sommer），Truist Securities。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I was wondering if you could give us some additional comments on European changes to be more competitive and close the gap in economic growth.

我想知道您是否可以就歐洲為提高競爭力和縮小經濟成長差距所做的改變給我們一些補充評論。

Are there specific changes with regards to temporary worker rules or something that you could really latch on to that would be relevant in a catalyst for growth at Manpower?

在臨時工規則方面是否有具體變化，或者您能真正抓住哪些可以成為促進 Manpower 成長的催化劑？

I would say they are following the blueprint of the so-called Draghi plan which was presented to the European Union as the idea of how to regain Europe's competitiveness.

我想說，他們正在遵循所謂的德拉吉計畫的藍圖，該計畫是向歐盟提出的如何恢復歐洲競爭力的想法。

And it's a five-pillar plan that talks about -- emphasizing the importance about growth industries, making a green transition, which from a European perspective means eventually having access to cheaper energy.

該計畫包含五大支柱，強調成長型產業的重要性、實現綠色轉型，從歐洲的角度來看，這意味著最終能夠獲得更便宜的能源。

Also, and this relates, of course, to our business, making sure that a skilled workforce is available.

此外，這當然也與我們的業務有關，確保擁有熟練的勞動力。

And you've heard us say in the past that the defining challenge of our time will be to reskill and upskill the workforce at scale at the speed that we've never done before.

大家過去也曾聽我們說過，我們這個時代的決定性挑戰將是以前所未有的速度大規模地對勞動力進行再培訓和提陞技能。

And of course, that from our perspective is a really, really good opportunity -- the continued investment in innovation.

當然，從我們的角度來看，這是一個非常非常好的機會——持續投資於創新。

And then finding the right positioning -- the geopolitical strategy for Europe is the fifth pillar and really finding the right place for Europe and how Europe can compete with 450 million citizens.

然後找到正確的定位——歐洲的地緣政治戰略是第五個支柱，真正找到歐洲的正確位置以及歐洲如何與 4.5 億公民競爭。

It is a very large 27-country economic block.

這是一個由 27 個國家組成的龐大經濟集團。

But in many cases, it's still acting as a collection of 27 countries, and getting them together to compete better in this changing multipolar world is a big imperative.

但在許多情況下，它仍然是一個由 27 個國家組成的集合，讓它們聯合起來在這個不斷變化的多極世界中更好地競爭是當務之急。

So I would say the focus on developing a skilled workforce is, of course, perfectly aligned with our own strategies of developing reskilling and upskilling programs such as our Manpower brand MyPath program and our Experis Academy.

因此，我想說，專注於培養熟練的勞動力當然與我們自己開發再培訓和技能提升計劃的策略完全一致，例如我們的 Manpower 品牌 MyPath 計劃和我們的 Experis Academy。

So moving towards more specialized, higher level skills that our clients are looking for today and will increasingly look for into the future.

因此，我們正朝著更專業化、更高水準的技能邁進，這正是我們的客戶現在所尋求的，並且在未來也會越來越尋求的。

At the same time, I would say that our form of flexibility is still a very strong form as far as companies are concerned in a restrictive labor regulation that we're seeing across Europe.

同時，我想說，就企業而言，在歐洲各地看到的限制性勞動法規方面，我們的彈性仍然非常強。

Our form of responsible flexibility where we're paying for training, we're providing employment to millions of workers across Europe as an industry.

我們採取負責任的靈活方式，即支付培訓費用，為整個歐洲的數百萬工人提供就業機會。

We don't see anything in the five-point plan that is changing the regulations.

我們沒有看到五點計劃中有任何改變法規的內容。

But of course, that is also subject to country legislation.

但當然，這也受國家立法的約束。

But since we are on that point, I would say at this point, we're not seeing any changes to any regulatory environment in Europe that would be detrimental to our industry.

但既然我們已經到了這個地步，我想說，目前我們還沒有看到歐洲監管環境發生任何對我們的產業有害的變化。

And frankly, as we're talking about deregulation and making things more business friendly across Europe, we can only think of that as being positive for our business going forward when it happens.

坦白說，當我們談論放鬆管制並讓整個歐洲的商業環境變得更加友善時，我們只能認為，當這一切發生時，對我們的業務發展是有利的。

And then my follow-up, in bench countries such as Germany, your restructuring efforts and actions position the company to be profitable at sort of current demand levels, or do you need demand to improve for that level of profitability to kind of flow through?

然後我的後續問題是，在德國這樣的基準國家，您的重組努力和行動使公司能夠在當前需求水平上實現盈利，或者您是否需要需求改善才能實現這種盈利水平？

Germany has been one of the countries we've spoken about where we have significant challenges and we've made good progress.

德國是我們談到的國家之一，我們面臨重大挑戰，但已經取得了良好進展。

Last year, this time you heard us talk about a significant change where we're addressing structurally how we compete in the German market and moving out of our Proservia business, which we feel very good about, making sure that we focus our efforts and our resources in areas where we can win in the market.

去年這個時候，大家聽到我們談論一項重大變革，我們正在從結構上解決我們在德國市場的競爭方式，並退出我們的 Proservia 業務，我們對此感到非常高興，確保我們將精力和資源集中在我們能夠在市場上取勝的領域。

And we still have a long way to go in Germany.

在德國我們還有很長的路要走。

The country is in a big slump.

該國正陷入大蕭條。

PMI is the lowest PMI of all major European countries, and it's the longest post-war industrial declining environment.

PMI是歐洲主要國家中最低的，也是戰後持續時間最長的工業衰退環境。

So it's been -- it's tough sledding in Germany right now for the country, as well as for our industry and ourselves.

所以，對德國、我們的產業以及我們自己來說，現在都是困難重重的。

We need to drive more demand and continue to look at, just as you saw in this quarter, what it is that we need to do to fine-tune our operations and make sure we become more efficient, effective, as well as making sure that we are competing well in the market.

我們需要推動更多的需求，並繼續關注我們需要做些什麼來微調我們的運營，並確保我們變得更加高效、有效，並確保我們在市場上具有良好的競爭力，正如您在本季度看到的那樣。

So more work to do.

所以還有很多工作要做。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Josh Chan, UBS.

瑞銀的 Josh Chan。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning, Jonas and Jack.

早安，喬納斯和傑克。

Just two quick ones for me.

我只想問兩個問題。

So first one, circling back to the portfolio question.

首先，回到投資組合問題。

So as certain countries experience steepening losses, does that change what you think about that country's viability for Manpower?

那麼，隨著某些國家經歷不斷加劇的損失，這會改變您對該國人力資源可行性的看法嗎？

And then I guess structurally, do you feel like you have to be in certain countries in order to serve kind of your global client base?

然後我想從結構上來說，您是否覺得必須在某些國家才能為您的全球客戶群提供服務？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, let me start with the second part of your question first.

好吧，我先從你的問題的第二部分開始。

Sometimes, it's beneficial to have our own subsidiaries in different markets, but sometimes we're able to meet the client needs and see better growth opportunities and value creation by finding different formulas such as franchising our Manpower business and really going after the market in a different way and, as Jack said, then being able to collect franchise fees and help the country continue to proceed.

有時，在不同的市場擁有自己的子公司是有益的，但有時，我們能夠滿足客戶需求，並通過找到不同的方式獲得更好的成長機會和價值創造，例如特許經營我們的人力資源業務，以不同的方式真正進入市場，正如傑克所說的那樣，然後能夠收取特許經營費並幫助國家繼續前進。

And I'd say that we look at that with -- through the lens of a few things, the size of the market, the complexity and the estimated complexity in terms of regulations going forward, the political stability, the general risk environment, and what it is that we need to focus on in terms of directing our resources to the countries that require more resources.

我想說，我們要從幾個角度來看待這個問題，即市場規模、未來監管的複雜性和預期的複雜性、政治穩定性、整體風險環境，以及我們在將資源引導到需要更多資源的國家時需要關注的重點。

So it's really a balance of various items.

因此這實際上是各種項目的平衡。

And as you've seen in the past, we've taken significant actions in many countries where we feel we need to be able to compete better -- and we just talked about Germany being one of them -- and we keep evaluating what it is that we need to do to win in the market and make sure that we can service our clients and candidates in the best way possible and generate profitable growth.

正如您過去所看到的，我們在許多我們認為需要更好地競爭的國家採取了重大行動——我們剛才談到德國就是其中之一——我們不斷評估我們需要做些什麼才能在市場上取勝，並確保我們能夠以最好的方式服務我們的客戶和候選人，並實現盈利性增長。

So that's something that we do on a continuous basis, and you can expect us to continue to do so as we navigate through this challenging environment.

這是我們一直在做的事情，你可以期待我們在這個充滿挑戰的環境中繼續這樣做。

Thanks for that color, Jonas.

謝謝你的顏色，喬納斯。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then my second one is on corporate expense.

我的第二個問題是關於公司費用。

As Jack mentioned, that's been curtailed in the last couple of quarters.

正如傑克所提到的，過去幾個季度，這一趨勢已經受到限制。

I just wanted to ask about the sustainability of this lower level of corporate expense.

我只是想問一下企業費用較低是否可持續。

Kind of how do you expect that to trend going forward?

您預計未來趨勢會如何？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Josh, I'd be happy to talk to that.

喬希，我很樂意談這個。

So we did continue to invest in our transformation programs.

因此，我們確實繼續投資於我們的轉型計劃。

That is coming through in corporate, but you have seen us pull back spend elsewhere.

這是在公司層面實現的，但您已經看到我們削減了其他方面的支出。

And I'd say as we go into 2025 in the current environment, I think that's going to continue to be the name of the game a bit -- balancing the investments and the transformation with areas where we could help fund that by pulling back other spend.

我想說，在目前的環境下，當我們進入 2025 年時，我認為這將繼續成為遊戲的名稱 - 平衡投資和轉型與我們可以透過撤回其他支出來為其提供資金的領域。

I would expect -- as we talked about last quarter, there were some one-off items that benefited corporate in Q3.

我預計——正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，第三季有一些一次性項目使公司受益。

Year-end, it was a bit lower based on our pullback.

年底，由於我們的回調，價格略有下降。

I would expect, as we go into next year, to see levels consistent with what you saw this year.

我預計，進入明年，我們將看到與今年一致的水平。

We have a big push on the transformation, as we've talked about before.

正如我們之前談到的，我們大力推動轉型。

A lot of countries moving through transformation of back office, which is great.

許多國家正在進行後台部門轉型，這是件好事。

It's going to position us really, really well in 2026.

這將使我們在 2026 年佔據非常非常有利的地位。

But there's a lot of work happening in 2025.

但 2025 年還有很多工作要做。

So I'd expect corporate levels in line with what you saw this year, for the most part, with the exception of Q3, which was abnormally low for the reasons we talked about last quarter.

因此，我預計公司水平大部分與今年的水平一致，但第三季度除外，由於我們上個季度討論過的原因，第三季度的水平異常低。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you both for your time.

感謝你們抽出時間。

George Tong, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬治通 (George Tong)。

Hi, thanks.

嗨，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

In the US, you mentioned that first-quarter revenue could experience a further decline than the fourth-quarter trend.

在美國，您提到第一季的營收可能比第四季的趨勢進一步下降。

Can you describe what you're seeing that could cause trends to worsen in the US?

您能否描述一下您所看到的可能導緻美國趨勢惡化的情況？

Yeah.

是的。

George, there's really a couple considerations around that.

喬治，關於這一點確實有幾點需要考慮。

I think I talked about the fact that we had a very strong RPO finish to the year in the US.

我想我談過這樣一個事實，即我們今年在美國取得了非常強勁的 RPO 成績。

A lot of that was seasonal.

其中很多都是季節性的。

And so that's going to roll off as we start the first quarter.

當我們開始第一季時，這個數字就會跟著上升。

That's one consideration.

這是一個考慮。

We still have those clients.

我們仍然有那些客戶。

We would anticipate strong seasonal work from them again.

我們預計他們會再次進行強勁的季節性工作。

But it doesn't fall in the first quarter.

但第一季並沒有下降。

So that's part of it.

這就是其中的一部分。

The other part of it on the Experis side that we talked a lot about last year was healthcare IT and particularly the go-lives that we do there.

我們去年討論過許多的 Experis 方面的另一部分內容，即醫療保健 IT，特別是我們在那裡開展的上線工作。

That is a little harder to forecast and is a bit bumpier in terms of exactly when that comes through.

這有點難以預測，而且具體何時實現也有些坎坷。

I'd say what we saw last year was some pent-up demand that came through very strongly in the first quarter.

我想說，我們去年看到的是一些被壓抑的需求，而這些需求在第一季表現得非常強勁。

We are seeing good healthcare IT work this first quarter.

我們看到第一季醫療保健 IT 工作進展順利。

It may not be at the exact same level as last year.

它可能不與去年處於完全相同的水平。

That's another consideration.

這是另一個考慮因素。

But as Jonas said, I think underlying -- when you take that out of the mix, underlying activity is relatively stable, and we continue to be very encouraged by the progress on Manpower.

但正如喬納斯所說，我認為潛在的——當你把它從組合中剔除時，潛在的活動相對穩定，我們繼續對人力方面的進展感到非常鼓舞。

So with that being said, there's a reset that happens on a lot of those contracts, which causes a bit of a ramp-up as we get into the first quarter.

話雖如此，許多合約都會發生重置，這會導致我們進入第一季時出現一些上漲。

So seasonally, you'll see that step back a bit sequentially.

因此從季節角度來看，你會看到這種趨勢逐漸減弱。

But with all that being said, I think we feel good about stability in the US as we discussed earlier.

但綜上所述，我認為我們對美國的穩定性感到滿意，正如我們之前所討論的。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then most of your restructuring charges in the quarter were in Northern Europe.

本季的大部分重組費用都發生在北歐。

Can you discuss what's been restructured to date and whether you think more actions may be necessary based on prevailing hiring conditions?

您能否討論一下迄今為止的重組情況，以及您是否認為根據現行的招聘條件可能需要採取更多行動？

Yeah.

是的。

As I said, George, I think where we've taken the restructuring are in the markets that we've been talking about that have been the most challenged.

正如我所說，喬治，我認為我們所進行的重組是在我們談論的面臨最大挑戰的市場中進行的。

So Germany, top of the list.

因此德國位居榜首。

I'd say other markets that we continue to look at the cost base in Q4 and Q3 were The Netherlands and the Nordics as we looked at Norway and Sweden and we've talked about the declines in those markets.

我想說，我們在第四季度和第三季度繼續關注成本基礎的其他市場是荷蘭和北歐，正如我們關注挪威和瑞典時討論過的這些市場的下滑情況。

The other one, of course, is the UK.

另一個當然是英國。

UK, we've done a really nice job improving the profitability of our UK business.

英國，我們在提高英國業務的獲利能力方面做得非常出色。

But with demand down so significantly in that market, we've taken additional actions in the fourth quarter as well.

但由於該市場的需求大幅下降，我們在第四季也採取了額外措施。

And so I think we feel good about the changes we've made there that is going to help us preserve profitability.

因此我認為我們對所做的改變感到滿意，這將有助於我們保持獲利能力。

And as we go forward, George, it's really hard to say at this point.

喬治，當我們繼續前進時，現在真的很難說。

It's going to depend on how those markets continue to evolve.

這將取決於這些市場如何繼續發展。

I think we feel good about the changes we've taken so far based on the current environment.

我認為我們對迄今為止基於當前環境所採取的改變感到滿意。

If the environment changes, if it starts to improve, then we're going to hold back and really run those markets very efficiently, which will help us really maximize profitability in the short term.

如果環境發生變化，如果開始改善，那麼我們就會堅持下去，並真正有效地經營這些市場，這將幫助我們在短期內真正實現獲利能力最大化。

And if that doesn't play out and things continue to drift down a little bit, then you should expect that we're going to continue to look hard in those markets.

如果這種情況沒有發生，並且情況繼續略有下滑，那麼你應該預料到我們將繼續密切關注這些市場。

But that's how I would position it.

但這就是我的定位。

I think we feel really good about the remaining markets.

我認為我們對剩餘的市場感覺非常良好。

We did talk about areas we're investing as well.

我們也確實談論了我們投資的領域。

We're investing in Italy.

我們正在義大利投資。

Italy is a great market, continues to be a very strong market for us.

義大利是一個很棒的市場，對我們來說仍然是一個非常強大的市場。

We're investing heavily in Japan as well.

我們也在日本投入了大量資金。

So it is a balance, and we are continuing to monitor conditions in all of our major markets.

所以這是一個平衡，我們將繼續監測所有主要市場的狀況。

Got it.

知道了。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That concludes the question-and-answer session.

問答環節到此結束。

I'd like to turn the call back over to Jonas Prising for closing remarks.

我想將電話轉回喬納斯·普里辛 (Jonas Prising) 來做結束語。

Thanks, everyone, for all your questions and for participating in today's earnings call.

感謝大家提出的所有問題以及參加今天的財報電話會議。

We look forward to speaking with all of you again as we discuss our first-quarter results a number of months from now.

我們期待幾個月後在討論第一季業績時再次與大家交談。

Until then, thanks again, and look forward to seeing you soon.

到那時，再次感謝，並期待很快見到您。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect.

這確實結束了程序，您現在可以斷開連接了。

Everyone, have a great day.

祝大家有個愉快的一天。