ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the ManpowerGroup First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加萬寶盛華集團 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，此通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Jonas Prising, Chairman and CEO. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給董事長兼執行長喬納斯·普里辛 (Jonas Prising)。請繼續。

Welcome, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2024 conference call. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jack McGinnis, is with me today. And for your convenience, we have included our prepared remarks within the Investor Relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com.

歡迎並感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第一季電話會議。我們的財務長傑克麥金尼斯今天和我在一起。為了您的方便，我們已將準備好的評論納入我們網站 manpowergroup.com 的投資者關係部分。

I will start by going through some of the highlights of the first quarter, and then Jack will go through the results and guidance in more detail. And I'll then share some concluding thoughts before we start our Q&A session.

我將首先介紹第一季度的一些亮點，然後傑克將更詳細地介紹結果和指導。然後，在我們開始問答環節之前，我將分享一些結論性的想法。

Jack will now cover the safe harbor language.

傑克現在將介紹安全港語言。

Good morning, everyone. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, including statements concerning economic and geopolitical uncertainty, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

大家，早安。本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關經濟和地緣政治不確定性的陳述，這些陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響。這些陳述是基於管理層目前的期望或信念。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Slide 2 of our earnings release presentation further identifies forward-looking statements made in this call and factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially and information regarding reconciliation of non-GAAP measures.

我們的收益發布簡報的投影片 2 進一步確定了本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性陳述以及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素以及有關非公認會計準則措施調節的資訊。

Thanks, Jack. Last quarter, we stated that though the economy remains resilient in many markets, uncertainty around the outlook persists, leading employers to be cautious in their hiring, pausing non-critical spend and deferring projects until more clarity emerges. One quarter in,– we see a continuation of this trend. Labor markets are cooling in North America and Europe, yet remain strong.

謝謝，傑克。上個季度，我們表示，儘管許多市場的經濟仍然具有彈性，但前景的不確定性仍然存在，導致雇主在招聘時保持謹慎，暫停非關鍵支出並推遲項目，直到情況更加明朗為止。一個季度以來，我們看到這種趨勢仍在延續。北美和歐洲的勞動力市場正在降溫，但仍保持強勁。

In our most recent ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, employers reported increased caution in their hiring due to economic uncertainty. At the same time, as they look beyond the current period of economic uncertainty, business leaders feel optimistic about the future, and they are clear that skilled talent is the cornerstone to success and are holding on to their existing workforces today.

在我們最近的萬寶盛華就業前景調查中，雇主表示，由於經濟不確定性，他們在招聘時更加謹慎。同時，當企業領導人超越當前的經濟不確定時期時，他們對未來感到樂觀，他們清楚技術人才是成功的基石，並且目前正在保留現有的勞動力。

That’s how demand remains strong for some skilled workers and talent shortages persist, despite a cooling broader environment. Our industry remains on the leading edge of labor market trends, and the impact of the softening environment has been felt here first. Demand for temporary staffing has been running at lower levels in most markets in North America and Europe. We have, however, seen continued stabilization in various key markets, most notably in the U.S., the U.K., but now also in some other European markets, albeit at low levels. Permanent recruitment activity also continues to trend at stable levels over the last 3 quarters.

這就是為什麼儘管大環境降溫，但對一些技術工人的需求依然強勁，人才短缺依然持續的原因。我們的行業仍然處於勞動力市場趨勢的前沿，並且環境疲軟的影響首先在這裡感受到。北美和歐洲大多數市場對臨時員工的需求一直處於較低水準。然而，我們看到各個主要市場持續穩定，尤其是美國和英國，但現在其他一些歐洲市場也出現了穩定，儘管處於較低水準。過去三個季度的長期招募活動也持續保持穩定水準。

With that said, although stabilization is often an encouraging first step towards growth, at this point it is still too early to call out an inflection in improving demand. We continue to navigate the current environment with agility and dexterity,— driving increased sales activities to generate demand and maintaining focus on strategic initiatives that position us to capture growth and greater productivity when market conditions improve.

話雖如此，儘管穩定往往是邁向成長的令人鼓舞的第一步，但目前判斷需求改善的轉折點還為時過早。我們繼續以敏捷和靈巧的方式應對當前的環境，推動增加銷售活動以產生需求，並繼續專注於策略性舉措，使我們能夠在市場狀況改善時實現成長和更高的生產力。

Turning to our financial results, in the first quarter revenue was $4.4 billion, down 5% year-over-year in constant currency, or down 6% as adjusted. Our reported EBITA for the first quarter was $74 million. Adjusting for our run-off Proservia business in Germany and a minor loss for Argentina related currency translated losses, EBITA was $80 million, representing a decrease of 38% in constant currency year-over-year.

轉向我們的財務業績，第一季營收為 44 億美元，以固定匯率計算年減 5%，調整後下降 6%。我們報告的第一季 EBITA 為 7400 萬美元。在調整我們在德國的 Proservia 業務的流失以及阿根廷相關貨幣換算損失的小額虧損後，EBITA 為 8,000 萬美元，按固定匯率計算同比下降 38%。

Reported EBITA margin was 1.7%, and adjusted EBITA margin was 1.8%. Earnings per diluted share was $0.81 on a reported basis, while earnings per diluted share was $0.94 on an adjusted basis. Adjusted earnings per share decreased 39% year-over-year in constant currency. In the first quarter, I spent time with our teams in Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America and North America. The global labor market is diverse, and disparities exist across regions, industries and demographic groups. While some sectors have experienced job losses and economic downturns, others have seen growth and expansion, and this corresponds with the shifts we're seeing. Demand in Latin America and Asia Pacific remains solid, while in North America and Europe, we continue to see subdued demand for resourcing and, except for outplacement, workforce solutions.

報告的 EBITA 利潤率為 1.7%，調整後的 EBITA 利潤率為 1.8%。報告基礎上攤薄每股收益為 0.81 美元，調整後每股攤薄收益為 0.94 美元。以固定匯率計算，調整後每股盈餘較去年同期下降 39%。在第一季度，我與歐洲、亞太地區、拉丁美洲和北美的團隊一起度過了時光。全球勞動力市場多元化，不同地區、產業和人口群體之間存在差異。雖然一些行業經歷了失業和經濟衰退，但其他行業卻出現了成長和擴張，這與我們所看到的轉變相對應。拉丁美洲和亞太地區的需求仍然強勁，而在北美和歐洲，我們對資源以及除再就業之外的勞動力解決方案的需求繼續疲軟。

At the same time, we expect the digital transformation across industries, the rise of AI and the strength of the green transition will create new opportunities as demand for specialist talent grows. Amid these shifts, the ability to build a workforce that can adapt at pace as transformation accelerates is critical and we believe ManpowerGroup has a big role to play in filling these needs for our clients in the future.

同時，我們預計，隨著對專業人才需求的成長，跨產業的數位轉型、人工智慧的崛起和綠色轉型的力量將創造新的機會。在這些轉變中，建立一支能夠適應轉型加速的員工隊伍的能力至關重要，我們相信萬寶盛華集團在未來滿足客戶的這些需求方面可以發揮重要作用。

I will now turn it over to Jack to take you through the results in more detail.

我現在將把它交給傑克，讓您更詳細地了解結果。

Thanks, Jonas. Revenues in the first quarter came in at the midpoint of our constant currency guidance range. As adjusted, gross profit margin came in above our guidance range and was at the midpoint of our range on a reported basis. As adjusted, EBITA was $80 million, representing a 38% decrease in constant currency compared to the prior year period. As adjusted, EBITA margin was 1.8% and came in at the midpoint of our guidance range, representing 100 basis points of decline year-over-year.

謝謝，喬納斯。第一季的營收處於我們固定匯率指引範圍的中點。調整後，毛利率高於我們的指導範圍，並且在報告的基礎上處於我們範圍的中點。調整後，EBITA 為 8,000 萬美元，以固定匯率計算，較上年同期下降 38%。調整後，EBITA 利潤率為 1.8%，位於我們指導範圍的中點，年減 100 個基點。

During the quarter, year-over-year foreign currency movements had an impact on our results. Foreign currency translation drove a 2% unfavorable impact to the U.S. dollar reported revenue trend compared to the constant currency decrease of 5%, or 6% as adjusted. Organic days adjusted constant currency revenue decreased 4% in the quarter, slightly better than our guidance.

本季度，年比外匯變動對我們的業績產生了影響。與固定匯率下降 5% 或調整後的 6% 相比，外幣換算對以美元報告的收入趨勢產生了 2% 的不利影響。本季調整後的有機天數固定貨幣收入下降 4%，略優於我們的指引。

Turning to the EPS bridge on Slide 4, reported net earnings per share was $0.81, which included $0.13 related to the run-off of our Proservia managed services business in Germany, and a minor non-cash foreign currency loss related to the translation of our hyperinflationary Argentina business. Excluding these items, adjusted EPS was $0.94.

轉向幻燈片4 上的EPS 橋樑，報告的每股淨利潤為0.81 美元，其中包括與我們在德國的Proservia 託管服務業務的流失相關的0.13 美元，以及與我們的折算相關的小額非現金外幣損失。排除這些項目，調整後每股收益為 0.94 美元。

Walking from our guidance midpoint, our results included a stronger operational performance of 1 cent, lower weighted average shares due to share repurchases in the quarter, which had a positive impact of 1 cent, a foreign currency impact that was 2 cents worse than our guidance, a tax rate which had a positive impact of 4 cents, and interest and other expenses had a negative impact of 3 cents.

從我們的指導中點開始，我們的業績包括1 美分的更強勁的營運業績，由於本季度的股票回購而導致的加權平均股票下降，這產生了1 美分的積極影響，外幣影響比我們的指引低了2 美分，稅率產生了 4 美分的正面影響，利息和其他費用產生了 3 美分的負面影響。

Next, let's review our revenue by business line. Year-over-year, on an organic constant currency basis, the Manpower brand declined by 3% in the quarter, the Experis brand declined by 11%, and the Talent Solutions brand had a revenue decline of 11%. Within Talent Solutions, our RPO business experienced a year-over-year revenue decline in line with the trend from the fourth quarter. Our MSP business revenues were basically flat compared to the prior year period, reflecting sequential improvement from the fourth quarter, while Right Management experienced solid year-over-year revenue growth on higher outplacement volumes in the quarter.

接下來，我們按業務線回顧我們的收入。與去年同期相比，以自然固定匯率計算，Manpower 品牌本季下降了 3%，Experis 品牌下降了 11%，Talent Solutions 品牌的營收下降了 11%。在人才解決方案中，我們的 RPO 業務收入年減，與第四季的趨勢一致。我們的 MSP 業務收入與去年同期相比基本持平，反映出第四季度的環比改善，而 Right Management 由於本季度就業量增加，收入實現了穩健的同比增長。

Looking at our gross profit margin in detail, our gross margin came in at 17.5% for the quarter after adjusting for the run-off of our Germany Proservia business. Staffing margin contributed a 50 basis point reduction due to mix shifts and lower volumes, while pricing remained solid. Permanent recruitment, including Talent Solutions RPO, contributed a 50 basis point GP margin reduction, as permanent hiring activity in the first quarter remained stable at lower levels consistent with recent quarter trends. Right Management career transition within Talent Solutions contributed 20 basis points of improvement as outplacement activity continued to be solid in the first quarter. Other items resulted in a 10 basis point margin increase.

詳細來看我們的毛利率，在德國 Proservia 業務的流失進行調整後，我們本季的毛利率為 17.5%。由於組合變化和銷售下降，人員配置利潤率下降了 50 個基點，而定價仍然穩定。包括人才解決方案 RPO 在內的永久招聘導致 GP 利潤率下降 50 個基點，因為第一季的永久招聘活動保持穩定在較低水平，與最近季度的趨勢一致。由於第一季的再就業活動持續保持穩健，人才解決方案內的正確管理職涯轉型貢獻了 20 個基點的改進。其他項目導致利潤率增加 10 個基點。

Moving on to our gross profit by business line. During the quarter, the Manpower brand comprised 58% of gross profit, our Experis professional business comprised 25%, and Talent Solutions comprised 17%. During the quarter, our consolidated gross profit decreased by 9% on an organic constant currency basis year-over-year, representing a slight decrease from the 8% decrease in the fourth quarter. Our Manpower brand reported an organic gross profit decrease of 6% in constant currency year-over-year, representing a mix related additional decline from the 4% decline in the fourth quarter.

繼續按業務線劃分的毛利。本季度，Manpower 品牌佔毛利的 58%，Experis 專業業務佔 25%，Talent Solutions 佔 17%。本季度，我們的綜合毛利潤以有機固定匯率計算年減 9%，較第四季 8% 的降幅略有下降。我們的 Manpower 品牌報告稱，以固定匯率計算，有機毛利潤年減 6%，與第四季度 4% 的下降相比，與混合相關的額外下降。

Gross profit in our Experis brand decreased 16% in organic constant currency year-over-year, representing a slight additional decline from the 15% decrease in the fourth quarter, driven by continental Europe. Gross profit in Talent Solutions decreased 11% in organic constant currency year-over-year, representing an improved sequential trend from the 14% decline in the fourth quarter. Although RPO volumes were relatively stable from the fourth quarter, the year-over-year GP decrease improved slightly. MSP experienced an improved GP trend from the fourth quarter, while Right Management continued to experience solid outplacement activity.

以有機固定匯率計算，Experis 品牌的毛利年減 16%，較第四季 15% 的下降幅度略有增加（受歐洲大陸推動）。以有機固定匯率計算，Talent Solutions 的毛利年減 11%，較第四季 14% 的下降趨勢有所改善。儘管 RPO 數量較第四季相對穩定，但 GP 年減幅度略有改善。從第四季開始，MSP 的 GP 趨勢有所改善，而 Right Management 繼續經歷穩健的再就業活動。

Reported SG&A expense in the quarter was $698 million. Excluding the run-off of our Germany Proservia business, SG&A was 5% lower year-over-year on a constant currency basis representing a further decrease from the 4% decline in the fourth quarter on an adjusted basis. This reflects organic headcount reductions of 10% year-over-year. Our digitization strategy focused on transforming back-office functions will drive further cost efficiencies and our corporate expenses reflect this investment. These strategic investments are progressing nicely and are expected to drive medium- and long-term productivity and efficiency enhancements across our technology and finance functions worldwide through shared service centers leveraging leading global technology platforms.

本季報告的 SG&A 費用為 6.98 億美元。不包括德國 Proservia 業務的流失，SG&A 按固定匯率計算年減 5%，較第四季調整後的 4% 降幅進一步下降。這反映了有機員工人數較去年同期減少 10%。我們的數位化策略專注於轉變後台職能，這將進一步提高成本效率，我們的公司開支也反映了這項投資。這些策略投資進展順利，預計將透過利用全球領先技術平台的共享服務中心，推動我們全球技術和財務職能部門的中長期生產力和效率提升。

The underlying year-over-year SG&A decreases largely consisted of operational costs of $32 million and currency changes of $9 million. Adjusted SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue represented 15.7% in constant currency in the first quarter. The Proservia Germany run-off expense represented $2 million. I'm pleased to note there were no restructuring charges during the quarter.

SG&A 年減主要包括 3,200 萬美元的營運成本和 900 萬美元的貨幣變動。以固定匯率計算，第一季調整後的 SG&A 費用佔營收的百分比為 15.7%。 Proservia 德國決選費用為 200 萬美元。我很高興地註意到本季沒有重組費用。

The Americas segment comprised 23% of consolidated revenue. Revenue in the quarter was $1.0 billion, representing a decrease of 1% compared to the prior year period on a constant currency basis. OUP was $26 million and OUP margin was 2.5%. The U.S. is the largest country in the Americas segment, comprising 66% of segment revenues. Revenue in the U.S. was $680 million during the quarter, representing an 8% days-adjusted decrease compared to the prior year. OUP for our U.S. business was $12 million in the quarter, representing a decrease of 61% after adjusting the prior year for minor restructuring costs. OUP margin was 1.8%.

美洲業務佔合併收入的 23%。該季度營收為 10 億美元，以固定匯率計算比去年同期下降 1%。 OUP 為 2,600 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 2.5%。美國是美洲細分市場中最大的國家，佔該細分市場收入的 66%。該季度美國地區的營收為 6.8 億美元，按天數調整後較上年同期下降 8%。本季我們美國業務的 OUP 為 1,200 萬美元，在調整上一年的小額重組成本後下降了 61%。 OUP 利潤率為 1.8%。

Within the U.S., the Manpower brand comprised 22% of gross profit during the quarter. Revenue for the Manpower brand in the U.S. decreased 13% during the quarter, which was stable from the decrease in the fourth quarter. The Experis brand in the U.S. comprised 45% of gross profit in the quarter. Within Experis in the U.S., IT skills comprised approximately 90% of revenues. Experis U.S. revenue decreased 6% during the quarter, an improvement from the 13% decline in the fourth quarter and reflects increased short duration healthcare IT project activity and other items benefiting the first quarter.

在美國，萬寶盛華品牌佔本季毛利的 22%。 Manpower品牌在美國的營收本季下降13%，與第四季的下降相比趨於穩定。美國的 Experis 品牌佔本季毛利的 45%。在美國的 Experis 中，IT 技能約佔收入的 90%。 Experis 美國本季營收下降 6%，較第四季 13% 的降幅有所改善，反映出短期醫療保健 IT 專案活動和其他專案受益於第一季的增加。

Talent Solutions in the U.S. contributed 33% of gross profit and experienced a revenue decline of 2% in the quarter, an improvement from the 14% decline in the fourth quarter. RPO revenue declines in the U.S. reflect relatively stable level of permanent hiring programs in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. The U.S. MSP business saw a slight revenue decline representing an improvement from the fourth quarter, while outplacement activity within our Right Management business drove strong year-over-year revenue increases. In the second quarter of 2024, we expect a slightly improved revenue decline for our overall U.S. business, as compared to the first quarter decline, as we continue to anniversary the more significant pull back in demand in the year ago period.

美國的Talent Solutions貢獻了33%的毛利，本季營收下降了2%，較第四季14%的下降有所改善。美國 RPO 收入下降反映出第一季永久招聘計劃與第四季度相比相對穩定。美國 MSP 業務的收入略有下降，較第四季度有所改善，而我們的 Right Management 業務中的再就業活動推動了收入同比強勁增長。與第一季的下降相比，我們預計 2024 年第二季我們的整體美國業務收入下降幅度將略有改善，因為我們將繼續紀念去年同期更大幅度的需求回落。

Southern Europe revenue comprised 45% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue in Southern Europe was $2.0 billion, representing a 5% decrease in constant currency. OUP for our Southern Europe business was $70 million in the quarter and OUP margin was 3.5%. France revenue comprised 56% of the Southern Europe segment in the quarter and decreased 5% in days-adjusted constant currency. OUP for our France business was $33 million in the quarter, representing a decrease of 27% on a constant currency basis. OUP margin was 3%.

南歐收入佔本季合併收入的 45%。南歐的營收為 20 億美元，以固定匯率計算下降 5%。本季南歐業務的 OUP 為 7,000 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 3.5%。本季法國營收佔南歐市場的 56%，以天數調整後的固定匯率計算下降 5%。本季法國業務的 OUP 為 3,300 萬美元，以固定匯率計算下降 27%。 OUP 利潤率為 3%。

Activity to date in April 2024 is consistent with trends experienced in the first quarter. We are estimating the year-over-year constant currency revenue trend in the second quarter for France to be consistent with the first quarter trend. Revenue in Italy equaled $404 million in the first quarter, reflecting a decrease of 6% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis. OUP equaled $27 million and OUP margin was 6.8%. We estimate that Italy will also have a slightly improved revenue trend in the second quarter compared to the first quarter in constant currency.

2024 年 4 月迄今的活動與第一季的趨勢一致。我們預計法國第二季的年比固定貨幣收入趨勢將與第一季的趨勢保持一致。義大利第一季營收為 4.04 億美元，以天數調整的固定匯率計算下降 6%。 OUP 相當於 2,700 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 6.8%。我們預計，以固定匯率計算，義大利第二季的營收趨勢也將較第一季略有改善。

Our Northern Europe segment comprised 20% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue of $870 million represented a 12% decline in constant currency. As adjusted to exclude the run-off Proservia Germany business, OUP was $6 million and OUP margin was 0.7%. Our largest market in the Northern Europe segment is the U.K., which represented 35% of segment revenues in the quarter. During the quarter, U.K. revenues decreased 13% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis. This reflects a stable trend from the rate of decline from the fourth quarter on this same basis. We estimate a similar year-over-year revenue trend in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

我們的北歐業務佔本季合併收入的 20%。以固定匯率計算，營收為 8.7 億美元，下降 12%。經調整以排除決選的 Proservia 德國業務後，OUP 為 600 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 0.7%。我們在北歐細分市場的最大市場是英國，佔本季細分市場收入的 35%。本季度，英國營收以天調整固定匯率計算下降 13%。從第四季的下降率來看，這反映了在同一基礎上的穩定趨勢。我們預計第二季的年收入趨勢與第一季類似。

In Germany, adjusted revenues decreased 8% in days-adjusted constant currency in the quarter. As previously reported, the wind down of our Proservia managed services business in Germany was substantially completed in the previous quarter and the final run-off of client activity will be completed in the second quarter of 2024. In the second quarter, we are expecting a slightly increased year-over-year revenue decline compared to the first quarter.

在德國，本季調整後營收以天數調整固定貨幣計算下降 8%。正如先前報導的那樣，我們在德國的 Proservia 託管服務業務的縮減已在上個季度基本完成，客戶活動的最終清理工作將於 2024 年第二季度完成。

The Asia Pacific Middle East segment comprises 12% of total company revenue. In the quarter, revenues equaled $535 million, representing a decrease of 4% in organic constant currency. OUP was $20 million and OUP margin was 3.7%. Our largest market in the APME segment is Japan, which represented 51% of segment revenues in the quarter. Revenue in Japan grew 10% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis. We remain very pleased with the consistent performance of our Japan business, and we expect continued strong revenue growth in the second quarter.

亞太中東業務占公司總收入的 12%。本季營收為 5.35 億美元，以有機固定匯率計算下降 4%。 OUP 為 2000 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 3.7%。我們在 APME 細分市場中最大的市場是日本，佔本季細分市場收入的 51%。以天數調整的固定匯率計算，日本的營收成長了 10%。我們對日本業務的持續表現感到非常滿意，我們預計第二季營收將繼續強勁成長。

I'll now turn to cash flow and balance sheet. In the first quarter, free cash flow was strong and represented $104 million during the quarter and compares to $111 million in the prior year. At quarter end, days sales outstanding decreased about a 1.5 days to 55 days. During the first quarter, capital expenditures represented $12 million. During the first quarter, we repurchased 665,000 shares of stock for $50 million. As of March 31st, we have 3.9 million shares remaining for repurchase under the share program approved in August of 2023.

我現在轉向現金流和資產負債表。第一季自由現金流強勁，本季自由現金流為 1.04 億美元，而前一年為 1.11 億美元。季度末，應收帳款週轉天數減少約 1.5 天至 55 天。第一季資本支出為 1200 萬美元。第一季度，我們以 5,000 萬美元回購了 665,000 股股票。截至 3 月 31 日，根據 2023 年 8 月批准的股票計劃，我們仍有 390 萬股可供回購。

Our balance sheet ended the quarter with cash of $605 million and total debt of $985 million. Net debt equaled $380 million at quarter-end. Our debt ratios at quarter-end reflect total gross debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA of 1.98 and total debt to total capitalization at 31%. Our debt and credit facilities remained unchanged during the quarter, as displayed in the appendix of the presentation.

截至本季末，我們的資產負債表中現金為 6.05 億美元，債務總額為 9.85 億美元。季末淨債務為 3.8 億美元。我們季末的負債比率反映了總負債與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 1.98，總負債與總資本的比率為 31%。如簡報附錄所示，我們的債務和信貸額度在本季保持不變。

Next, I'll review our outlook for the second quarter of 2024. Based on trends in the first quarter and April activity to date, our forecast anticipates that the second quarter will continue to be challenging in North America and Europe. Our forecast for Q2 also anticipates ongoing stable, but low levels of permanent recruitment activity. With that said, we are forecasting earnings per share for the second quarter to be in the range of $1.24 to $1.34, which excludes a forecasted unfavorable impact of 8 cents related to the final quarter impact of the run-off of the Proservia Germany business. The guidance range also includes an unfavorable foreign currency impact of 7 cents per share and our foreign currency translation rate estimates are disclosed at the bottom of the guidance slide, which includes the Argentine Peso, which is impactful.

接下來，我將回顧我們對 2024 年第二季的展望。我們對第二季的預測也預計長期招募活動將持續穩定但水準較低。話雖如此，我們預計第二季度每股收益將在 1.24 美元至 1.34 美元之間，其中不包括與 Proservia 德國業務流失對最後季度影響相關的 8 美分的預測不利影響。指導範圍還包括每股 7 美分的不利外幣影響，我們的外幣換算率估計值在指導幻燈片的底部披露，其中包括具有影響力的阿根廷比索。

Our constant currency revenue guidance range is between a decrease of 2% and 6%, and at the midpoint is a 4% decrease. Although the impact of net dispositions is minor, there are slightly more working days in the second quarter this year contributing to about 0.5% additional decrease on an organic days-adjusted constant currency basis, and this still rounds to a 4% decrease at the midpoint. This represents a similar rate of decrease compared to the first quarter trend on this same basis.

我們的固定貨幣收入指引範圍為下降 2% 至 6%，中間為下降 4%。儘管淨處置的影響很小，但今年第二季的工作日略有增加，導致以有機天數調整的固定貨幣基礎上的額外減少約 0.5%，而中點仍為 4% 的減少。在同一基礎上，與第一季趨勢相比，這表示下降率相似。

Excluding the Germany Proservia run-off business impact on the second quarter of 2024, adjusted EBITA margin is projected to be down 20 basis points at the midpoint compared to the prior year. We estimate that the effective tax rate for the second quarter will be 32.5% on an adjusted basis, which reflects the overall mix effect of lower earnings from lower tax geographies in the current environment.

排除德國 Proservia 徑流業務對 2024 年第二季的影響，調整後的 EBITA 利潤率預計將比上一年中位數下降 20 個基點。我們預計第二季調整後的有效稅率將為32.5%，這反映了當前環境下低稅收地區獲利下降的整體混合效應。

As usual, our guidance does not incorporate restructuring charges or additional share repurchases, and we estimate our weighted average shares to be 48.7 million. Our guidance also does not include the impact of the noncash hyperinflationary balance sheet related currency translation adjustment for our Argentina business and we will report that separately.

與往常一樣，我們的指導不包括重組費用或額外的股票回購，我們估計我們的加權平均股票為 4870 萬股。我們的指導也不包括與非現金惡性通貨膨脹資產負債表相關的貨幣換算調整對我們阿根廷業務的影響，我們將單獨報告。

I will now turn it back to Jonas.

我現在將其轉回給喬納斯。

Thanks Jack. History shows that investing in operational improvements during economic uncertainty can lead to greater resilience and faster growth in more favorable conditions. Though the external environment remains dynamic, our commitment to digital transformation and executing our Diversification, Digitization and Innovation strategy remains steadfast.

謝謝傑克。歷史表明，在經濟不確定性期間投資於營運改善可以在更有利的條件下帶來更大的彈性和更快的成長。儘管外部環境仍然充滿活力，但我們對數位轉型和執行多元化、數位化和創新策略的承諾仍然堅定不移。

The continued diversification of our services and product offerings and our global footprint has enabled us to capture new opportunities to help offset softening demand in certain regions and verticals. In Q1, our Experis business saw increased demand in Healthcare IT in the U.S., and our Manpower business saw solid demand in automotive and transportation in various European markets.

我們的服務和產品供應的持續多元化以及我們的全球足跡使我們能夠抓住新的機遇，幫助抵消某些地區和垂直領域需求疲軟的影響。第一季度，我們的 Experis 業務看到美國醫療保健 IT 的需求增加，而我們的 Manpower 業務看到歐洲各個市場的汽車和運輸需求強勁。

In Talent Solutions, our career transition business in Right Management performed well, while our TAPFIN MSP business delivered improved trends from the prior quarter. In our Manpower business, clients continue to focus on hiring specialist skills at the intersection of technology and production. We are well equipped to meet this growing need. Through our Manpower MyPath program, our Experis Academies, and our worldwide network of dedicated Talent Agents and recruiters, we mentor, coach and guide hundreds of thousands of people to upskill and move up in their careers. In my recent travels, I saw those dynamics play out in a very tight labor market like Japan, where the value of our upskilling services is a very important part of our value creation for our client companies and our ability to attract talent to the opportunities in the market.

在人才解決方案中，我們在 Right Management 的職涯轉型業務表現良好，而我們的 TAPFIN MSP 業務則較上一季呈現改善趨勢。在我們的人力資源業務中，客戶繼續專注於招募技術和生產交叉領域的專業技能。我們有能力滿足這日益增長的需求。透過我們的 Manpower MyPath 計劃、我們的 Experis 學院以及我們的全球專門人才代理和招聘人員網絡，我們指導、指導和指導數十萬人提高技能並在職業生涯中取得進步。在我最近的旅行中，我看到這些動態在像日本這樣非常緊張的勞動力市場中發揮著作用，我們的技能提升服務的價值是我們為客戶公司創造價值以及吸引人才抓住機會的能力的一個非常重要的組成部分。

On digitization, we continue to make good progress in our technology roadmap and are proud to lead the industry through the deployment of PowerSuite, our global cloud-based platforms for front and back office. In the first quarter, we reached a significant milestone with the opening of our Global Business Services center in Porto, Portugal, our regional finance center to serve all of Europe and a central component of our global strategy to standardize, centralize and transform finance service delivery.

在數位化方面，我們繼續在技術路線圖上取得良好進展，並很自豪能夠透過部署 PowerSuite（我們面向前台和後台的全球雲端平台）來引領業界。第一季度，我們實現了一個重要的里程碑，在葡萄牙波爾圖開設了全球商業服務中心，這是我們為整個歐洲提供服務的區域金融中心，也是我們標準化、集中化和轉型金融服務交付的全球戰略的核心組成部分。

This follows our successful mature finance shared service center in Mexico City serving Latin America. For 75 years, ManpowerGroup has been committed to doing business the right way for our people, our clients, and the communities in which we operate. We know these high standards are valued by all who work with us. As AI advances, we are guided by our people-first approach. We have established a multi-functional Ethical AI Committee that helps us stay in front of AI-related risks, while enabling us to innovate and pilot new approaches that create value for our people and our clients.

在此之前，我們在墨西哥城成功建立了成熟的財務共享服務中心，為拉丁美洲提供服務。 75 年來，萬寶盛華集團致力於以正確的方式開展業務，造福我們的員工、客戶以及我們經營所在的社區。我們知道所有與我們合作的人都重視這些高標準。隨著人工智慧的進步，我們以人為本的方針為指導。我們建立了多功能人工智慧道德委員會，幫助我們應對人工智慧相關風險，同時使我們能夠創新和試點新方法，為我們的員工和客戶創造價值。

In March, our ethical leadership was once again recognized by Ethisphere, as we were named a World's Most Ethical Company for the 15th time. I'd like to thank our teams around the world who live our standards, create value for our clients and candidates, and help propel our strong ethical culture each day.

3 月份，我們的道德領導力再次獲得 Ethisphere 的認可，我們第 15 次被評為「全球最具道德企業」。我要感謝我們世界各地的團隊，他們遵守我們的標準，為我們的客戶和候選人創造價值，並每天幫助推動我們強大的道德文化。

I would now like to open the line to Q&A, operator.

我現在想開通問答線路，接線生。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

I was wondering if you can give us a little bit more color on intra-quarter trends. And I know it's early in April, but anything you can tell us about what's been going on in the current quarter would be great.

我想知道您是否能為我們提供有關季度內趨勢的更多資訊。我知道現在是四月初，但如果您能告訴我們本季發生的情況，那就太好了。

Sure, Jeff. This is Jack. I'd be happy to talk about that. So I think as we've talked about in some of our larger markets, activity levels in April so far are pretty much aligned with what we've seen in the first quarter. And you see that in France with our guide there, pretty much in line with where we ended up in the first quarter overall.

當然，傑夫。這是傑克。我很樂意談論這個。因此，我認為正如我們在一些較大市場中所討論的那樣，迄今為止 4 月的活動水平與我們在第一季看到的情況基本一致。你可以在法國看到我們的指南，這與我們第一季的整體結果非常一致。

And we've talked a lot about the U.S. in our prepared remarks. And I'd say, in U.S., you see the benefit of anniversary-ing and lapping the prior year declines. But I'd say, on an underlying basis, stable activity levels as you look at the Manpower and Experis results as well.

我們在準備好的演講中談論了很多有關美國的內容。我想說，在美國，你會看到週年慶和克服前一年下降的好處。但我想說的是，從根本上來說，當你看看人力和經驗結果時，活動量是穩定的。

So in April, I'd say that's the main thing. I'd say there's a little bit of an Easter impact, March over April, in some markets like Italy as well, and in Northern Europe as well. And I'd say, over the course of the first quarter, I think what we saw in many of our markets were stable trends. And I'd say the month of March is a little tricky because of the Easter timing this year year-over-year, but I'd say, if you step back from that and take that a bit out of the equation, I think what we saw was a lot of stable trends.

所以在四月份，我想說這是主要的事情。我想說，在義大利和北歐等一些市場，三月和四月都會受到一些復活節的影響。我想說，在第一季度，我認為我們在許多市場中看到的是穩定的趨勢。我想說，由於今年的復活節時間逐年不同，三月有點棘手，但我想說，如果你退後一步，把它排除在外，我想我們看到的是很多穩定的趨勢。

We knew France was going to step down in the first quarter from the fourth quarter on an overall basis. That came in, in line with our expectations. And when we looked at activity levels during the course of the quarter. I think we're ending the quarter pretty much in line with where we were on a full quarter basis overall. So that's a little color on our largest markets. I'd say maybe one more would be the U.K., which was pretty stable as well. U.K. has been stable for a few quarters now. And as we look into activity levels into the second quarter, we're seeing a similar expectation as well.

我們知道法國將在第一季整體上從第四季開始下降。這符合我們的預期。當我們查看本季度的活動水平時。我認為本季結束時的情況與整個季度的整體情況基本一致。所以這對我們最大的市場來說有點色彩。我想說也許還有一個是英國，它也相當穩定。英國已經穩定了幾個季度。當我們研究第二季度的活動水平時，我們也看到了類似的預期。

All right. That's really helpful. If I could step back and maybe more of a macro question. It looks like in the U.S., the Fed is probably going to keep interest rates higher for longer. But if we look at the ECB, they seem to be closer to making cuts. If that does happen, how do you think that would impact your businesses in those different geographies?

好的。這真的很有幫助。如果我可以退後一步，也許更多的是一個宏觀問題。在美國看來，聯準會可能會在更長的時間內維持較高的利率。但如果我們看看歐洲央行，他們似乎更接近降息。如果這種情況確實發生，您認為這會對您在不同地區的業務產生什麼影響？

Well, it's hard to say, Jeff. But of course, if the central banks are deciding to lower the interest rates, they're acknowledging that the cooling effects of the higher interest rates is coming to bear onto those economies. And I think we are seeing that play out in Europe, where economic activity is slowing down, labor markets are cooling, and they're cooling slightly faster than they are cooling here in the U.S. So the idea then, of course, with dropping interest rates, would be to make sure that the economy lands softer or starts accelerating again. And when that happens, our business, of course, will start to see the effects of that and improving demand.

嗯，這很難說，傑夫。但當然，如果央行決定降低利率，他們就承認高利率的降溫效應將對這些經濟體產生影響。我認為我們正在歐洲看到這種情況，那裡的經濟活動正在放緩，勞動力市場正在降溫，而且它們的降溫速度比美國稍快一些。利率，將確保經濟放緩或開始再次加速。當這種情況發生時，我們的業務當然將開始看到其影響和需求的改善。

Our next question comes from Trevor Romeo with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自特雷弗·羅密歐和威廉·布萊爾。

First one I had was just on the U.S. Experis business. Just kind of thinking about the overall labor market for IT talent. What are you seeing now as far as kind of the supply and demand or the tightness of that labor market? Has there been any kind of additional slack coming in as the downturn has continued? Just kind of trying to get a sense for how quickly that business could snap back once client confidence improves.

我的第一個經驗是關於美國 Experis 業務的。只是想想 IT 人才的整體勞動市場。您現在對勞動市場的供需或緊張程度有何看法？隨著經濟低迷的持續，是否出現了任何額外的閒置現象？只是想了解一旦客戶信心改善，業務能夠以多快的速度恢復。

Thanks, Trevor. The market for IT skills in the U.S. remains strong, but it's not as tight as it was and, of course, not even close to as tight as it was immediately post pandemic. What we're seeing is continued weakness on the enterprise, or large tech companies still being cautious in terms of their overall hiring and coming off a pandemic hiring boom. But convenience demand looks reasonable. It is still weak, but it's stronger than the demand that we see from enterprise tech clients or enterprise clients at large.

謝謝，特雷弗。美國的 IT 技能市場仍然強勁，但不像以前那麼緊張，當然，甚至還沒有疫情後那麼緊張。我們看到的是企業持續疲軟，或者大型科技公司在整體招聘和擺脫大流行招聘熱潮方面仍然持謹慎態度。但便利性需求看起來很合理。它仍然很弱，但比我們從企業技術客戶或整個企業客戶看到的需求更強。

And just as Jack just mentioned, what we've observed is a stabilization sequentially, which we take as an encouraging first sign. Companies are looking for more specialized skills, and we believe that as the outlook firms up and employers feel better about the economic outlook and see less uncertainty, that those trends are going to continue to improve.

正如傑克剛才提到的，我們觀察到的是連續穩定，我們認為這是一個令人鼓舞的第一個跡象。公司正在尋找更專業的技能，我們相信，隨著前景的堅定，雇主對經濟前景的感覺更好，不確定性減少，這些趨勢將繼續改善。

Okay, Jonas. That's helpful. And then for a follow-up, just kind of curious on the level of, I guess, competition across some of your major markets at some of these lower levels of demand. Is the competitive environment still generally rational? Or are you seeing competitors try to grab share at all by kind of undercutting on pricing? I guess, generally, does it feel like you're gaining, maintaining or losing share in some of your key markets?

好吧，喬納斯。這很有幫助。然後，對於後續的情況，我想，我想知道一些主要市場在需求水平較低的情況下的競爭水平。競爭環境仍整體理性？或者您看到競爭對手試圖透過降低價格來搶佔市場份額？我想，一般來說，您是否感覺您在一些關鍵市場中獲得了、維持或失去了份額？

Overall, I think we would gauge ourselves as being with the market. And competition remains intense, but rational. And I think you can see this come through also in our staffing margin and our overall GP margins, which are holding up well despite the headwinds that we're seeing in particular in Europe and in North America. So it is always a competitive environment, but the underlying reason for that stability and the rational part is that labor markets continue to be strong.

總的來說，我認為我們會衡量自己是否與市場保持一致。競爭依然激烈，但也很理性。我認為你也可以在我們的員工利潤率和整體毛利率中看到這一點，儘管我們在歐洲和北美遇到了阻力，但這些利潤率仍然保持良好。因此，這始終是一個競爭環境，但這種穩定和理性的根本原因是勞動力市場持續強勁。

There's no doubt that labor markets are cooling, both in Europe and in North America, but they're still tight from a historical perspective. And that means it's still not easy to find the talent that you need. You may be more judicious, more surgical in your hiring. You may be more cautious in terms of how many people you want to bring on. But employees are still looking for talent, and you can also see that talent shortage surveys that we do on a regular basis, that employers are still finding it difficult to find exact skill sets that they want, exactly when they want them.

毫無疑問，歐洲和北美的勞動市場正在降溫，但從歷史角度來看，勞動市場仍然緊張。這意味著找到所需的人才仍然不容易。你在招募時可能會更加明智、更加謹慎。對於要帶多少人，您可能會更加謹慎。但員工仍在尋找人才，你也可以看到我們定期進行的人才短缺調查顯示，雇主仍然發現很難在他們需要的時候找到他們想要的確切技能。

So overall, it's rational, and I think it remains competitive, but we can see pricing stability across all of our markets, and that's reflected in our staffing and overall GP margins.

因此，總的來說，這是理性的，我認為它仍然具有競爭力，但我們可以看到我們所有市場的定價穩定性，這反映在我們的人員配置和整體毛利率上。

Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德的馬克馬爾孔。

A few different questions. One really quick one. Just firm as a total percentage of GP, including RPO, where did that come in, Jack?

幾個不同的問題。一個非常快的一個。只是固定的 GP 總百分比，包括 RPO，這是從哪裡來的，傑克？

Mark, that came in at 16.8% in the first quarter for us. So I know we've talked about that in the previous quarter where it came down a bit. What you're seeing in the first quarter, Mark, is seasonally, it's a lower staffing quarter for us just in terms of GP dollars typically. So perm actually sequentially -- actually improved very, very slightly in a dollars perspective. So you're seeing a little bit of a higher mix work in at that ratio of 16.8%.

馬克，我們第一季的成長率為 16.8%。所以我知道我們在上個季度已經討論過這個問題，但情況有所下降。馬克，你在第一季看到的情況是季節性的，通常就普通合夥人而言，這對我們來說是一個人員配置較低的季度。所以燙髮其實是連續的——從美元的角度來看，實際上改善了非常非常輕微。所以你會看到更高的混合比例在 16.8% 的情況下發揮作用。

Okay. Great. And then just a couple of very short numbers questions. Just with regards to Experis in terms of the trend. How much were the IT healthcare projects, particularly in the U.S.? And if we strip that out, how did things look? And would you expect things to still be stable to improving if we strip out those IT staffing projects, unless those are sustainable and a new promising line of business?

好的。偉大的。然後是幾個非常簡短的數字問題。就Experis而言，就趨勢而言。 IT 醫療保健項目的金額是多少，尤其是在美國？如果我們把它去掉，事情看起來怎麼樣？如果我們取消這些 IT 人員配備項目，您是否認為情況仍會穩定改善，除非這些項目是可持續的並且是一個新的有前途的業務線？

Thanks, Mark. I think on the U.S. Experis business, yes, we did call out that Healthcare IT. We did see a good deal of work in the first quarter. I would attribute that to some of those go-live works in the hospital system were deferred during 2023. So we did see a spurt of that activity in the first quarter. And we did call it out as a bit project related, because I wouldn't anticipate that, that level of activity will continue in that specific space in future quarters here. A bit of that was considered a catch-up, if you will.

謝謝，馬克。我認為在美國 Experis 業務上，是的，我們確實提到了醫療保健 IT。我們確實在第一季看到了大量工作。我將其歸因於醫院系統中的一些上線工作被推遲到 2023 年。我們確實將其稱為與項目相關的項目，因為我預計，在未來幾季的特定空間中，這種活動水平將繼續下去。如果你願意的話，其中的一點被認為是一種追趕。

But what I would say, maybe broader to your point, is I think we are seeing generally relatively stable trends in the U.S. Experis business, at lower levels, of course, based on what we experienced last year. And I think to Jonas' point, I think when we look at enterprise tech, still very sluggish in terms of demand, but convenience holding up a bit better. So as we step back and we look forward, I would expect the underlying stable trends that we talked about will continue. We're not seeing a big step-up in enterprise, and we're seeing convenience kind of continuing at current levels.

但我想說的是，也許對你的觀點來說更廣泛的是，我認為我們看到美國 Experis 業務總體上相對穩定的趨勢，當然，基於我們去年的經歷，處於較低水平。我認為就喬納斯的觀點而言，當我們審視企業技術時，需求仍然非常低迷，但便利性稍好。因此，當我們退後一步展望未來時，我預計我們談到的潛在穩定趨勢將繼續下去。我們沒有看到企業有很大的進步，但我們看到便利性仍在當前水準上繼續。

And as we go forward, we start to anniversary -- the second quarter of last year was the biggest decline of the year, and so we will anniversary that and that will help a bit on the year-over-year trend as we go into the second quarter. So that's how I would say it at this point, kind of in line with what Jonas said, no inflection point at this point, but we are seeing stability.

隨著我們的前進，我們開始慶祝週年紀念日——去年第二季度是今年最大的跌幅，所以我們將慶祝這一周年紀念日，這將對我們進入的同比趨勢有所幫助。所以這就是我現在要說的，有點與喬納斯所說的一致，目前沒有拐點，但我們看到了穩定。

Great. And then, Jonas, if I could ask a couple of kind of bigger picture questions. One, with regards to just kind of the U.S., predominantly the Manpower business. When we think about like what's happened with regards to higher wage rates, particularly in certain states that have come through, and then thinking about all the various gig opportunities that are out there that are available to individuals. What are you seeing just in terms of the quality of the people that you can place? And what's the productivity level? Or how are clients responding to these higher wage rates? What are your thoughts there?

偉大的。然後，喬納斯，我能否問一些更宏觀的問題。第一，就美國而言，主要是人力業務。當我們思考工資率上升方面發生的情況時，特別是在某些已經經歷過的州，然後考慮個人可以獲得的所有各種零工機會。就您可以安置的人員的素質而言，您看到了什麼？生產力水平如何？或者客戶對這些更高的工資率有何反應？你有什麼想法？

So Mark, I think what we're seeing in the Manpower business is clearly the headwinds from a manufacturing sector that's had a tough time now, frankly, for a number of years, and we've seen that reflected in PMI. But from a demand perspective, what we see playing out in the U.S. is really still an effect of the pandemic and the post-pandemic. So the dislocation of the U.S. market during the COVID pandemic was much bigger than it was in any other place across the world. And so lots of workers left their workplaces, then they came back, and employers were really faced with shortages that we're scrambling to fill.

馬克，我認為我們在人力業務中看到的顯然是來自製造業的逆風，坦白說，製造業多年來一直處於艱難時期，我們已經在 PMI 中看到了這一點。但從需求角度來看，我們在美國看到的情況實際上仍然是疫情和疫情後的影響。因此，新冠病毒大流行期間美國市場的混亂程度比世界上任何其他地方都要大得多。因此，許多工人離開了工作場所，然後又回來了，雇主確實面臨著我們正在努力填補的短缺問題。

In some cases, such as in the tech sector, they really engaged in a pandemic boom. But every category of employer was struggling really hard to find the talent that they needed to recover and then take advantage of the post-pandemic demand search for products and services. What we're seeing now though is that employers are still holding on to their workforce. They're much more surgical in their hiring of temporary staff. And as an industry, we are at the leading edge of a cooling labor market.

在某些情況下，例如在科技業，它們確實陷入了流行病繁榮。但每一類雇主都在努力尋找他們需要恢復的人才，然後利用疫情後對產品和服務的需求搜尋。但我們現在看到的是，雇主仍然保留著他們的勞動力。他們在僱用臨時員工方面更加嚴格。作為一個產業，我們正處於勞動市場降溫的前沿。

What's unusual in this cycle is the length between the decline in the temporary staffing industry and a more rapid cooling to a limited degree, we still believe, of the broader labor market, and we can just reflect on the very strong labor market numbers we saw at the end of March. But we still think that is going to play out.

這個週期的不同尋常之處在於，我們仍然認為，臨時工行業的衰退與更廣泛的勞動力市場在有限程度上的快速冷卻之間的時間間隔，我們可以反思一下我們看到的非常強勁的勞動力市場數據三月底。但我們仍然認為這將會發生。

So employers are cautious now. They are still navigating an uncertain environment, high inflation. But in terms of wages, the labor markets are still so tight, the employers understand they are having to pay those wages, which, of course, benefits workers that have real wage increases, which, in turn, continues to drive good consumption in the U.S. economy, which also then may fuel some additional inflation, but above all, provides purchasing power to the consumers.

所以雇主現在很謹慎。他們仍在面臨不確定的環境和高通膨。但就工資而言，勞動市場仍然如此緊張，雇主明白他們必須支付這些工資，這當然有利於實際工資增長的工人，這反過來又繼續推動製造業的良好消費。的通貨膨脹，但最重要的是，它為消費者提供了購買力。

So all in all, I would say we think this is playing out as we would normally expect during a cycle, but with the post-pandemic anomaly of a slow motion move of a cooling labor market. But the overall trend with an evolution of technology is always moving towards a higher skilled workforce, and expectations then of increasing productivity levels on that higher skilled workforce. And I think that's a general trend that we've seen over a number of years and how it's not really any different.

總而言之，我想說，我們認為這正如我們在一個週期中通常預期的那樣，但在大流行後勞動力市場降溫的緩慢變化中出現了異常現象。但技術發展的總體趨勢始終是朝向更高技能的勞動力發展，並且期望提高高技能勞動力的生產力水準。我認為這是我們多年來看到的總體趨勢，而且實際上並沒有什麼不同。

Great. And then you've talked about your AI initiatives. Can you talk just a little bit more about like what's -- now that we've had basically a year anniversary in terms of ChatGPT, you've been exploring it. When you think out 2 to 3 years, how much more efficient can your operations become, not just in terms of the shared services, but also in the field from a recruiting, placement matching perspective?

偉大的。然後您談到了您的人工智慧計劃。您可以再多談談一下嗎——現在我們已經過了 ChatGPT 一周年紀念日了，您一直在探索它。當您考慮 2 到 3 年時，您的營運效率可以提高多少，不僅在共享服務方面，而且從招聘、職位匹配的角度來看，在現場？

Mark, that is actually one of the things we are quite excited about. Because as you know, we've been on a multiyear journey of digital transformation. And although I'm certainly not an expert in AI, I'm learning as much as I can. And what I have learned is that you cannot apply AI unless you have a modern technology infrastructure. And we believe we have a very modern technology infrastructure that we've implemented and continue to implement in this year as well that is able to leverage not only back-office and shared services efficiencies using automation for repetitive tasks, but also providing our recruiters and our salespeople with the best tools that they need to do their jobs better, as well as providing superior candidate experiences to the people that we're recruiting in Manpower, people who are recruiting in Experis, or in Talent Solutions.

馬克，這實際上是我們非常興奮的事情之一。因為如您所知，我們已經經歷了多年的數位轉型之旅。儘管我肯定不是人工智慧的專家，但我正在盡我所能地學習。我了解到，除非擁有現代化技術基礎設施，否則無法應用人工智慧。我們相信，我們擁有非常現代化的技術基礎設施，我們已經實施並將在今年繼續實施，它不僅能夠利用自動化執行重複性任務來提高後台和共享服務效率，而且還能夠為我們的招聘人員和我們的銷售人員擁有更好地完成工作所需的最佳工具，並為我們在Manpower 中招募的人員、在Experis 或Talent Solutions 中招募的人員提供卓越的候選人體驗。

So we think the impact of AI can be quite substantial. I would say it's early days yet. And despite everything that we read in the papers, the actual effects of AI are yet to manifest themselves in a business environment. As an anecdote, the highest level of recruitment of AI skills, counterintuitively maybe, but maybe not, is coming from the financial services sector, which of course is a massive user of technology and continuing to make significant investments.

所以我們認為人工智慧的影響可能是相當巨大的。我想說現在還為時過早。儘管我們在報紙上讀到了很多內容，但人工智慧的實際效果尚未在商業環境中顯現出來。有趣的是，人工智慧技能的最高招聘水平可能與直覺相反，但也可能不是，來自金融服務業，該行業當然是技術的大量用戶，並持續進行大量投資。

So AI will give us great opportunities, and we think we, in particular, are extremely well placed, because we are the only company or industry that is leveraging global platforms across all of our major geographies, one instance platforms. So once we have AI applied to a particular geography, we can quickly transfer those learnings into other geographies, because we're all operating in the same system.

因此，人工智慧將為我們提供巨大的機會，我們認為我們處於非常有利的位置，因為我們是唯一一家在所有主要地區利用全球平台（單一實例平台）的公司或產業。因此，一旦我們將人工智慧應用於特定地區，我們就可以快速將這些知識轉移到其他地區，因為我們都在同一個系統中運作。

Our next question comes from Josh Chan with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Josh Chan。

You mentioned that there's no restructuring charge in the quarter, which I think is the first time in a while. And so is that timing related? Or should we read that to suggest that you're satisfied with your organizational structure for the first time in a number of quarters?

您提到本季沒有重組費用，我認為這是一段時間以來的第一次。那麼這與時間有關嗎？或者我們應該讀到這表明您在幾個季度以來第一次對自己的組織結構感到滿意？

Thanks, Josh. Yes, I'd be happy to give a little more color on that. No, we were pleased not to have restructuring charges. We look at restructuring charges very seriously. And when we do restructuring charges, they have to have sustainable permanent savings as part of the business case for those actions. And following 2023, we talked a lot about that, and certainly we've taken significant actions in '23. And at this stage, really I think we feel like we've got the right balance. I think as we reflect on activity levels, you've heard us talk a lot about stability. We're not seeing further dramatic step downs in any of our major markets. And so with that, I think we feel like we have made appropriate adjustments based on these current trends. And we'll continue to monitor that going forward.

謝謝，喬許。是的，我很樂意為此提供更多的色彩。不，我們很高興沒有重組費用。我們非常認真地對待重組費用。當我們進行重組費用時，他們必須擁有可持續的永久儲蓄，作為這些行動的商業案例的一部分。 2023 年之後，我們對此進行了許多討論，當然我們在 23 年也採取了重大行動。在這個階段，我真的認為我們感覺我們已經達到了正確的平衡。我認為，當我們反思活動量時，您已經聽到我們談論了很多關於穩定性的問題。我們沒有看到任何主要市場出現進一步大幅下滑。因此，我認為我們感覺我們已經根據當前的趨勢做出了適當的調整。我們將繼續關注未來的發展。

So if the environment changes significantly, then, of course, we will take action and we'll do what we need to do to preserve margin. But we are very, very focused on being ready for the upturn. And I think we feel that we've made the appropriate adjustments. And I think we've balanced that. We're very focused on ensuring we have the right sales capabilities in the markets currently, and that will be the way we continue to look at this going forward.

因此，如果環境發生重大變化，那麼我們當然會採取行動，並採取必要措施來維持利潤。但我們非常非常專注於為經濟好轉做好準備。我認為我們覺得我們已經做了適當的調整。我認為我們已經平衡了這一點。我們非常注重確保我們目前在市場上擁有適當的銷售能力，這將是我們未來繼續看待這個問題的方式。

And I think the other item in terms of what we did ring-fence was Proservia Germany. As we said, that actually is going in line with our expectations, slightly better actually in the first quarter, a little bit lower than we anticipated in terms of those charges. And you can see in the second quarter, we're estimating actually a lower impact on that runoff as we go into the second quarter. And then it will be completed. And you can see that in the GP margin trend that I gave as well, with the benefits starting to come through as that business fully exits. And so that's the way to think about restructuring and some of the one-off items that we've talked about.

我認為我們所做的另一個項目是德國 Proservia。正如我們所說，這實際上符合我們的預期，第一季實際上略好一些，就這些費用而言，略低於我們的預期。您可以看到，在第二季度，我們估計，進入第二季度後，對徑流的影響實際上會較小。然後就完成了。你也可以在我給出的 GP 利潤率趨勢中看到這一點，隨著該業務完全退出，收益開始顯現。這就是考慮重組和我們討論過的一些一次性項目的方式。

Perfect. That's encouraging, Jack. And then I just wanted to ask about your confidence behind the improving rate of decline in the U.S. I guess how much does that depend on Experis, recognizing that there were some projects in Q1 perhaps. But I just wanted to get some color in terms of your confidence around trends continuing to get better in the U.S.

完美的。這很令人鼓舞，傑克。然後我只是想問一下您對美國下降率改善的信心。但我只是想了解一下您對美國趨勢繼續好轉的信心。

Overall, we think the market appears to be stabilizing, not only in Experis, but across all of our brands. The same for Manpower. And in Talent Solutions, we've seen RPO stabilize at a lower level. We've seen our TAPFIN MSP business in Talent Solutions actually improve a bit. And of course, Right Management, with outplacement, is tracking well, although not accelerating. So that gives us an idea that as an industry, and from our perspective, looking at where we're positioned, if things stay the way they are, the trends should remain stable, and that's what we've guided to in the second quarter.

總體而言，我們認為市場似乎正在穩定，不僅是 Experis，而且是我們所有品牌的市場。對於人力來說也是如此。在人才解決方案中，我們看到 RPO 穩定在較低水準。我們已經看到人才解決方案中的 TAPFIN MSP 業務實際上有所改善。當然，儘管沒有加速，但正確的管理和再就業的進展情況良好。因此，這給了我們一個想法，作為一個行業，從我們的角度來看，看看我們的定位，如果情況保持現狀，趨勢應該保持穩定，這就是我們在第二季度的指導。

Our next question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬納夫帕特奈克。

This is Princy on for Manav. I wanted to just see -- you mentioned on the call that you have continued diversification going on within your services and products offering, and that would help offset softening demand in certain regions and verticals. I want to just get a gauge on what specific verticals and regions you're seeing softening demand in?

這是馬納夫的普林西。我想看看——您在電話會議上提到，您的服務和產品不斷多元化，這將有助於抵消某些地區和垂直領域需求疲軟的影響。我想了解您認為哪些特定產業和地區的需求正在疲軟？

Princy, you broke up a little bit in the question, but I think I got the gist of your question is, you've highlighted some areas in your prepared remarks where you're seeing some strength, and that's helping offset some of the broader weakness elsewhere. It sounds like from a sector perspective, where do we have weakness. And what I'd say there is, to Jonas' earlier comments, I'd say manufacturing continues to be very sluggish, ex automotive in Europe. So automotive in Europe has been solid. We've talked about that previously in Germany. And holding up in France as well and in Italy in some of those markets.

普林西，你在這個問題上有點分裂，但我想我得到你問題的要點是，你在準備好的發言中強調了一些領域，在這些領域你看到了一些優勢，這有助於抵消一些更廣泛的影響其他地方的弱點。聽起來從產業角度來看，我們的弱點在哪裡。對於喬納斯之前的評論，我想說的是，歐洲的製造業（不包括汽車業）仍然非常低迷。因此，歐洲的汽車業一直很穩定。我們之前在德國討論過這個問題。在法國和義大利的一些市場上也表現出色。

But I'd say when you take auto aside, manufacturing continues to be very, very sluggish. So that's a big one. I'd say the other big one that we've talked a lot about is enterprise tech. Enterprise tech continues to be very sluggish, very cautious in terms of ongoing demand, and not really seeing much of a big inflection point there. And I think maybe the last one I just call out is finance. The financial sector was a strength in the first half of 2023. What we've seen really starting in the second half of last year and into the first quarter, just more cautious buying behavior in the financial sector for staffing services, and that continues.

但我想說，當你把汽車放在一邊時，製造業仍然非常非常低迷。所以這是一件大事。我想說我們經常討論的另一個大問題是企業技術。企業技術仍然非常低迷，對持續需求非常謹慎，並且沒有真正看到很大的轉折點。我想也許我剛才提到的最後一個是金融。金融業在 2023 年上半年表現強勁。

So that's a little color in terms of where we're seeing some of that offset to some of the areas where we have seen strength. And again, on the strength, aerospace has been strong for us, particularly in France. Construction in certain markets has actually been okay for us as well. And as I mentioned earlier, Healthcare IT, we did see some good activity in the first quarter, some project-related activity in the first quarter in the U.S.

因此，就我們看到的一些領域與我們看到的實力領域的一些抵消而言，這有點色彩。再次強調，航空航太業對我們來說一直很強大，尤其是在法國。事實上，某些市場的建設對我們來說還不錯。正如我之前提到的，醫療保健 IT 領域，我們確實在第一季看到了一些好的活動，在美國第一季出現了一些與專案相關的活動。

Got it. And I wanted to ask a follow-up. What kind of demand are you seeing currently for AI related skills and roles? I know you mentioned that it's still early innings.

知道了。我想問後續情況。您目前對人工智慧相關技能和角色的需求是什麼？我知道你提到現在還處於早期階段。

I think that was what kind of demand are you seeing in AI skills.

我認為這就是您所看到的人工智慧技能的需求。

Right. Then I addressed that just previously that we're seeing an increase in demand for AI skills. But I would also say that in the grand scheme of things, the volumes are very small. Interestingly, though, what I found, what we look at when we see the job ads and which industry is looking for AI skills, the financial services sector is the one that we see posting the most ads and posting the most orders for those skill sets, which might be, one might think that this comes from the technology sector.

正確的。然後我之前提到過，我們看到對人工智慧技能的需求不斷增加。但我也想說，從宏觀角度來看，這些數量是非常小的。但有趣的是，我發現，當我們看到招聘廣告時我們會看什麼，以及哪個行業正在尋找人工智慧技能，金融服務業是我們看到發布最多廣告和發布最多這些技能組合訂單的行業，這可能是，人們可能會認為這是來自科技領域。

But in fact what we're seeing is that it's coming primarily from the financial services sector, which, of course, is running massive technology platforms and they are looking for the AI skills. But I would position that though within the context of from an overall demand perspective, although these are difficult skills to find and they're increasing at a fast rate, the overall size of the demand is still small.

但事實上，我們看到的是，它主要來自金融服務業，當然，該行業正在運行大型技術平台，並且他們正在尋找人工智慧技能。但我的定位是，雖然從整體需求的角度來看，雖然這些技能很難找到，而且成長速度很快，但整體需求規模仍然很小。

Our next question comes from Tobey Sommer with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Tobey Sommer。

I wanted to ask you about your productivity improvements and investment initiatives, and the impact on SG&A percentages, demand rebounds. Maybe you could think about it in the context of would you be able to achieve a different SG&A percentage at the recent peak in revenue in 2021 around $21 billion? Any change in complexion of those 2 pieces? Again, I'm thinking out several years when demand rebounds when we get back there.

我想問一下你們的生產力改善和投資計劃，以及對銷售、管理和行政費用百分比、需求反彈的影響。也許您可以考慮一下，在 2021 年收入高峰（約 210 億美元）時，您是否能夠實現不同的 SG&A 百分比？這兩件衣服的膚色有變化嗎？再說一遍，我正在考慮幾年後當我們回到那裡時需求會反彈。

Yes. Thanks, Tobey, for that question. I'd be happy to talk to that. So the answer is definitely, we would expect to see some really good improvements in our efficiency ratio. So whether you're looking at SG&A as a percentage of GP or revenues. But I'd say GP probably is the most relevant one. When you look at pre-pandemic levels of efficiency, and certainly where we've been in recent years, you've seen the deleveraging play out.

是的。謝謝托比提出這個問題。我很樂意談論這一點。所以答案是肯定的，我們希望看到我們的效率得到一些真正好的改進。因此，無論您將 SG&A 視為 GP 還是收入的百分比。但我想說全科醫生可能是最相關的。當你看看大流行前的效率水平，當然還有我們近年來的效率水平時，你會看到去槓桿化的結果。

But based on the work we're doing and, to your point, and we talked a bit about it in our prepared remarks, we are progressing quite nicely in our transformation programs. And we talked a bit about the shared service center, the global business center that we're opening up -- we have opened up in the first quarter in Porto, Portugal. These type of things with our cloud-enabled financial structure are going to be driving significant efficiencies in our cost structure going forward. And that's on the heels of already significant progress in the front office PowerSuite implementations that will come through in a more meaningful way when volumes return from a recruiter productivity perspective.

但根據我們正在做的工作，以及就您的觀點而言，我們在準備好的發言中對此進行了一些討論，我們的轉型計劃進展得相當不錯。我們討論了共享服務中心，也就是我們正在開設的全球商務中心——我們已於第一季在葡萄牙波爾圖開設。這些類型的事物與我們支援雲端的財務結構將大大提高我們未來成本結構的效率。在此之前，前台 PowerSuite 實施已經取得了重大進展，從招募人員生產力的角度來看，當數量恢復時，這些進展將以更有意義的方式實現。

So when you add those together, we would expect a significant improvement in SG&A as a percentage of GP when you see those programs really start to kick in when volumes return back to previous levels, to your point, and ongoing efficiency. So that will drive meaningful improvement in those ratios. And you'll see that drop down to EBITA margin as well, and we've talked about that in the past.

因此，當你將這些加在一起時，當你看到這些計劃真正開始發揮作用時，當銷量恢復到之前的水平、達到你的觀點和持續的效率時，我們預計SG&A 在GP 中所佔的百分比會出現顯著改善。因此，這將推動這些比率的有意義的改善。您也會看到 EBITA 利潤率也下降，我們過去已經討論過這一點。

So there'll be a bit of a double impact. You'll see the falloff of some of that investment spend as we continue through these programs, but then you'll see the efficiencies come through, which will be meaningful as well. And all of that will help us improve our EBITA, one of the key components of our roadmap to EBITA margin improvement, and you'll see that come through in the ratios as those programs continue.

所以會有一點雙重影響。當我們繼續實施這些計劃時，您會看到一些投資支出的下降，但隨後您會看到效率的提高，這也將是有意義的。所有這些都將幫助我們提高 EBITA，這是我們提高 EBITA 利潤率路線圖的關鍵組成部分之一，隨著這些計劃的繼續，您將看到這一點在比率中得到體現。

Okay. And I was hoping you could comment on your capital deployment strategy, because we're a couple of years into softening demand. And historically, when you kind of as the management team have gotten signs that the coast is clear and the demand signals are improving, you typically deploy a little bit more capital at that time in the form of acquisitions. Is that still the playbook? And what areas or criteria may you use to select acquisitions?

好的。我希望您能評論一下您的資本部署策略，因為我們已經經歷了幾年的需求疲軟。從歷史上看，當你作為管理團隊收到跡象表明海岸已經暢通並且需求信號正在改善時，你通常會在那時以收購的形式部署更多的資本。這還是劇本嗎？您可以使用哪些領域或標準來選擇收購？

Yes, Tobey, I think great question. I'd say, overall, I think the main punch line is our strategy has not changed. And you're right, we have been very careful. But where we have made acquisitions has been on the IT resourcing side, and that's worked out very well for us. As we think about the acquisition we did in 2021, that is performing very well. Jonas talked about the convenience component of Experis in the U.S., so performing better than the enterprise sector. So that continues to be an area for us as we look forward.

是的，托比，我認為這是一個很好的問題。我想說，總的來說，我認為主要的亮點是我們的策略沒有改變。你是對的，我們一直都非常小心。但我們在 IT 資源方面進行了收購，這對我們來說效果非常好。當我們考慮 2021 年進行的收購時，效果非常好。 Jonas 談到了 Experis 在美國的便利部分，因此表現優於企業部門。因此，這仍然是我們展望的一個領域。

And in the current environment, you're right, the current environment has not been very conducive to acquisitions, candidly. And what you've seen us do in the meantime is return excess cash via our share repurchase program, and the dividend continues to be a high priority for us as well. So you should expect that approach to continue.

在當前的環境下，你是對的，坦白說，當前的環境不太有利於收購。同時，您看到我們所做的就是透過我們的股票回購計畫返還多餘的現金，而股息仍然是我們的重中之重。所以你應該期望這種方法會持續下去。

And again, we are very careful when it comes to acquisitions. So we do a very, very detailed analysis. We look at many different filters. Most importantly, cultural fit and those type of items. But I would say that is something that more realistically would be something to think about as the environment starts to improve going forward. But I'd say that's kind of where we are currently.

再說一次，我們在收購方面非常謹慎。所以我們做了非常非常詳細的分析。我們研究了許多不同的過濾器。最重要的是，文化契合度和此類物品。但我想說，隨著環境開始改善，這才是更現實的需要考慮的事情。但我想說這就是我們目前的處境。

Our next question comes from Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安德魯·斯坦納曼。

This is Stephanie Yee stepping in for Andrew. Wanted to ask, so obviously, the U.S. temporary help in the BLS figures have been declining for about 2 years now, which is rather unusual. I guess what do you think the shape of the recovery will be for Manpower U.S. and the staffing industry in the U.S. given this unusual dynamic?

這是 Stephanie Yee 接替安德魯 (Andrew)。我想問一下，很明顯，美國勞工統計局的臨時救助數據已經持續下降了大約兩年，這是相當不尋常的。鑑於這種不尋常的動態，我想您認為美國萬寶盛華和美國人力資源產業的復甦將是什麼樣的？

Thanks, Stephanie. Yes. No, as you say, we agree that 17 consecutive months of temp worker declines in the U.S. without a recession or a significantly cooling economy is frankly unprecedented. And if you add the preceding 6 months of declining growth, that's 23 months of declining growth in our industry in the U.S. So as I mentioned earlier, we believe that there is a lag effect that is distorted this time by the pandemic and the post-pandemic hiring, where employers today are really holding on to their workforces. They are absorbing and creating the flexibility by reducing the use of temporary staff, increasing, as you saw in the BLS numbers of last month, the use of part-time work.

謝謝，斯蒂芬妮。是的。不，正如你所說，我們同意美國臨時工數量連續 17 個月下降而沒有出現衰退或經濟明顯降溫，坦率地說是史無前例的。如果加上前 6 個月的成長下降，那就是美國產業成長下降的 23 個月。 ，如今的雇主確實留住了他們的勞動力。他們透過減少臨時員工的使用來吸收和創造靈活性，正如你在上個月的美國勞工統計局數據中看到的那樣，增加了兼職工作的使用。

So they are pulling just about every measure that they can to improve the flexibility without touching their permanent payrolls in a more significant way. Given the strength of the economy, and if we assume that there is not a full-blown recession, it's likely that employers will continue to remain cautious until they feel that the uncertainties that they are cautious about clear up to some degree. And at that point, we believe we'll see a very good return to the use of temporary staff.

因此，他們正在採取一切可以採取的措施來提高靈活性，而不會以更重要的方式影響他們的永久薪資。考慮到經濟的強勁勢頭，如果我們假設沒有全面衰退，那麼雇主很可能會繼續保持謹慎態度，直到他們認為他們所謹慎的不確定性在某種程度上消失。到那時，我們相信臨時員工的使用將會得到很好的回報。

Because temporary staff is a fantastic way to provide flexibility for any employer across industries and especially in an uncertain environment. And many of those workers, in various skill levels, then also become integrated into the employers' payrolls through conversions over time, and we've seen strong conversion levels occur today. The strength of that rebound, of course, Stephanie, is very difficult to estimate, because it's really a question of what's going to happen to the overall economy and what is the snapback.

因為臨時員工是為跨行業的任何雇主提供靈活性的絕佳方式，尤其是在不確定的環境中。隨著時間的推移，許多具有不同技能水平的工人也透過轉換融入了雇主的薪資單，我們今天已經看到了強勁的轉換水平。當然，史蒂芬妮，反彈的力度很難估計，因為這實際上是一個整體經濟將會發生什麼以及反彈是什麼的問題。

Right now, the global growth scenario is highly dependent on U.S. economic growth, which is one of the highest in the world, and of course, being the major economy that's sort of setting the tone for everyone else. So we are pulling along the growth at a global level right now. But we think when the clouds lift and, in particular, for us, from a manpower perspective, the manufacturing sector starts to get more traction, the enterprise on the tech side really start to activate the postponed and delayed technology transformation projects, we think both from a Manpower perspective and Experis perspective, and then also from a Talent Solutions perspective, that we'll see very good evolution of those services.

目前，全球成長情景高度依賴美國經濟成長，美國是世界上經濟成長最快的國家之一，當然，作為主要經濟體，美國也為其他國家定下了基調。因此，我們現在正在全球範圍內推動成長。但我們認為，當烏雲散去，特別是對我們來說，從人力的角度來看，製造業開始獲得更多的牽引力，科技方面的企業真正開始啟動推遲和推遲的技術改造項目，我們認為從人力的角度和Experis的角度來看，然後從人才解決方案的角度來看，我們將看到這些服務的良好發展。

It's just that right now, our industry is bearing the brunt of the slowing, and you can't really see it in the broader BLS numbers. But essentially, we feel this is a cyclical downturn distorted by anomalies created by the pandemic. And eventually, this will sort of flatten out and we're, therefore, pleased to see the stabilization not only in the U.S. and the U.K., and now several more countries. Our 2 other big operations, France and Italy, we estimate will also stabilize into our second quarter, and that gives us the platform to hope for a recovery that will then manifest itself into increased demand and improved numbers for all of our brands.

只是目前，我們的行業正首當其沖地受到經濟放緩的影響，而你無法從更廣泛的美國勞工統計局數據中真正看到這一點。但從本質上講，我們認為這是一場週期性衰退，被疫情造成的異常現象所扭曲。最終，這種情況將會趨於平緩，因此，我們很高興看到不僅美國和英國，而且現在還有更多國家的情況趨於穩定。我們估計，我們的另外兩個大型業務——法國和義大利也將在第二季度穩定下來，這為我們提供了一個希望復甦的平台，而復甦將表現為需求的增加和我們所有品牌的數量的增加。

Our next question comes from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑弗里斯的史蒂芬妮摩爾。

Actually, this might be a good follow-up to even the last question. Maybe kind of digging into that a little bit further. So effectively, from your clearly pretty extensive knowledge of past cycles and also the conversations you're having with customers, so I guess I'm just trying to kind of be a little bit more specific here. So in your opinion, what needs to happen broadly to go from this period of, admittedly, stabilization to the inflection to the positive side. So essentially, what you're saying is we do need to see that unemployment rise first and the economy kind of take a step down? Or could this be this cycle different from prior? I'd love your thoughts there.

事實上，這甚至可能是最後一個問題的一個很好的後續。也許可以進一步深入研究一下。非常有效，從您對過去週期的明顯相當廣泛的了解以及您與客戶的對話來看，所以我想我只是想在這裡說得更具體一些。因此，在您看來，要從這段不可否認的穩定期轉向積極的轉折點，需要發生廣泛的事情。所以本質上，你的意思是我們確實需要看到失業率首先上升，而經濟則有所下降？或者說這個週期可能與之前不同？我很想聽聽你的想法。

I think it's already different, Stephanie, in terms of we've not seen the cooldown that we would normally associate with our industry being on the leading edge and then subsequently followed by the cool down and the broader labor market. But we'd expect that to happen. But at this point, depending on who you ask, we don't think that cooling is going to be that significant, but significantly enough to create some slack and really to start the growth cycle from moving forward again as far as our industry is concerned.

史蒂芬妮，我認為情況已經不同了，因為我們還沒有看到我們通常認為我們的行業處於領先地位的冷卻期，然後是冷卻期和更廣泛的勞動力市場。但我們預計會發生這種情況。但在這一點上，取決於你問的是誰，我們認為降溫不會那麼顯著，但就我們的行業而言，其顯著足以創造一些閒置並真正開始再次向前發展的增長週期。

The areas, of course, that could kickstart this evolution is a lowering of interest rates. Very important. Cooling of geopolitical tensions, equally important. This could be another trigger, and a number of other events. Right now, frankly, we feel that Europe is following a more traditional cycle. The economy is cooling. It's likely that the ECB will lower interest rates maybe even before the Fed lowers interest rates. And that will be a good signal that now comes the time to start to gear up and generate more economic growth in Europe, and we would then hope to see improving PMIs in Europe. And since we have such a big part of our business in Europe, we would see that as a very good sign.

當然，可能引發這一演變的領域是利率的降低。很重要。地緣政治緊張局勢的降溫同樣重要。這可能是另一個觸發因素，以及許多其他事件。目前，坦白說，我們認為歐洲正在遵循一個更傳統的周期。經濟正在降溫。歐洲央行很可能會在聯準會降息之前降息。這將是一個很好的信號，表明現在是歐洲開始加速並創造更多經濟成長的時候了，然後我們希望看到歐洲的採購經理人指數有所改善。由於我們的業務很大一部分在歐洲，我們認為這是一個非常好的跡象。

So we don't know when we should see and expect either of those to happen either in Europe or in the U.S., but we expect that, that is how it would happen. But the trigger point or when it turns around, I think, is really going to come very closely related to lowering of interest rates and inflation levels dropping. Right now, our inflation rates are higher and they're moving in the wrong direction, and that needs to cool off further before everything can get going the way we would expect it to do.

所以我們不知道什麼時候我們應該看到並期望這兩種情況在歐洲或美國發生，但我們預計，這就是它會發生的方式。但我認為，觸發點或逆轉的時間確實與利率降低和通膨水準下降密切相關。目前，我們的通膨率更高，而且正朝著錯誤的方向發展，在一切按照我們預期的方式發展之前，需要進一步降溫。

Our next question comes from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬治唐。

You mentioned trends in France and Italy were beginning to stabilize, which is an improvement from past quarters. You touched on the auto sector, but can you elaborate a little bit more on what you're seeing in the labor markets in these countries and what's helping to drive that stabilization?

您提到法國和義大利的趨勢開始穩定，這比過去幾季有所改善。您談到了汽車行業，但您能否詳細說明您在這些國家的勞動力市場中看到的情況以及是什麼有助於推動這種穩定？

Yes. The labor markets in both Italy and in France have cooled somewhat. The Italian economy is actually doing very well overall, and a lot of that comes from EU funds that are being channeled and deployed across Italy as part of the Recovery Act in Europe. And France has seen a cooling of the labor market, a cooling of economic growth. But I think since we are an industry that is concurrent with economic trends, that we've seen the step-downs that have occurred over a number of quarters as we look at the economy and the labor markets overall, that the trends within our industry should lead to a stabilization with continued headwinds.

是的。義大利和法國的勞動市場均有所降溫。義大利經濟實際上總體表現非常好，其中很大一部分來自歐盟資金，這些資金作為歐洲復甦法案的一部分在義大利各地進行引導和部署。法國勞動市場降溫，經濟成長降溫。但我認為，由於我們是一個與經濟趨勢同步的行業，當我們觀察整體經濟和勞動力市場時，我們已經看到了幾個季度發生的下降，我們行業內的趨勢應該會在持續的逆風中導致穩定。

So let's remember that these are still markets that are well below where they were pre-pandemic, but that we are starting to see that stabilization as we have seen in the U.K., in the U.S., now also in the Netherlands, in other parts of Europe as well. So it's really been a progression of countries where our business has reached a point and then appears to be moving sideways sequentially after that point. And we expect that to happen in France and Italy as well.

因此，讓我們記住，這些市場仍然遠低於大流行前的水平，但我們開始看到這種穩定，就像我們在英國、美國、現在也在荷蘭以及世界其他地區看到的那樣。也一樣。因此，這實際上是一個國家的進步，我們的業務已經達到了一個點，然後在該點之後似乎依次橫向移動。我們預計法國和義大利也會發生這種情況。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I wanted to dive further into your productivity initiatives and cost-cutting efforts. Can you talk a little bit more about where you are in your journey to achieve improved productivity and rightsized headcount?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我想進一步深入了解你們的生產力計劃和成本削減工作。您能否多談談您在提高生產力和調整員工人數方面的進展？

I think as you've seen, George, of course, during an environment like this, we're deleveraging. So productivity is moving down. We are adjusting, to Jack's point, our SG&A and our headcount, being very careful and balanced in our approach, because we want to mitigate the near-term effects of the headwinds that we're seeing in particular in Europe and in North America. But at the same time, retain enough resources to make sure that when the rebound happens, that we're extremely well positioned to take advantage of that. And it's at that point that we're going to see the productivity improvements on our business flow through to the bottom line.

我認為，喬治，正如你所看到的，當然，在這樣的環境下，我們正在去槓桿化。因此，生產力正在下降。根據傑克的觀點，我們正在調整我們的銷售管理費用和員工人數，我們的方法非常謹慎和平衡，因為我們希望減輕我們所看到的不利因素的短期影響，特別是在歐洲和北美。但同時，保留足夠的資源，以確保當反彈發生時，我們處於非常有利的位置來利用這一點。正是在這一點上，我們將看到我們的業務流程生產力的提高，並最終體現在利潤上。

And you can see some improvement, of course, occurring in terms of our bottom line between the first quarter and the second quarter. As Jack mentioned, our first quarter is a weak quarter due to the start of the year, the resetting of taxes in a number of countries. We move into the second quarter, it improves. But the real improvement, of course, is going to come when our volumes in associates and consultants for Experis starts to move up, and we can leverage the investments we've made in technology as well as regaining the productivity we lost during the cyclical downturn.

當然，您可以看到我們第一季和第二季之間的利潤有所改善。正如傑克所提到的，由於年初，許多國家重新調整了稅收，我們的第一季是一個疲軟的季度。我們進入第二季度，情況有所改善。但當然，當我們的 Experis 員工和顧問數量開始增加時，真正的改進就會到來，我們可以利用我們在技術方面的投資，並恢復我們在周期性衰退期間失去的生產力。

And our last question comes from Heather Balsky with Bank of America.

我們的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的希瑟·巴爾斯基。

This is Emily Marzo on for Heather Balsky. I'm wondering if you could give any additional color into the pricing environment. I believe you called out the Staffing had solid pricing you've seen. But I'm wondering if you could give any additional color there.

我是艾米莉·馬佐 (Emily Marzo)，為希瑟·巴爾斯基 (Heather Balsky) 配音。我想知道您是否可以為定價環境提供任何額外的色彩。我相信您已經說過，人員配備的定價很穩定。但我想知道你是否可以在那裡提供任何額外的顏色。

Yes. I would say, really there isn't a whole lot of additional color to give. I think the headline really is pricing has been stable. It's been holding up. I think one of the previous questions was really asking along the same lines. Despite volumes being at lower levels, there really hasn't been much of an impact on pricing. And I think that story remains the same. I think that really is the takeaway. And although our staffing margin has come down year-over-year, that's really just mix of the businesses that is having that effect. On an underlying basis, pricing remains strong, and we think the market is quite rational.

是的。我想說，確實沒有太多額外的顏色可以提供。我認為標題確實是定價一直穩定。一直堅持下來了我認為之前的問題之一實際上是在問同樣的問題。儘管銷量較低，但對定價確實沒有太大影響。我認為這個故事仍然是一樣的。我認為這確實是要點。儘管我們的員工利潤率逐年下降，但這實際上只是產生這種影響的業務組合。從根本上看，定價依然強勁，我們認為市場相當理性。

There are no further questions. Please proceed with any closing remarks.

沒有其他問題了。請繼續發表結束語。

Excellent. Thank you very much for attending our Q1 earnings call, and we look forward to speaking with you again in July for our second quarter earnings call. Until then, thanks very much, and we look forward to speaking with you again soon.

出色的。非常感謝您參加我們的第一季財報電話會議，我們期待在 7 月再次與您交談，參加我們的第二季財報電話會議。在此之前，非常感謝，我們期待很快再次與您交談。

Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

感謝您的參與。這確實結束了程序，您現在可以斷開連接。大家，祝你有美好的一天。