ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to ManpowerGroup second-quarter earnings results conference call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded. If you care to drop off now, please do so. I will now like to turn the call over to ManpowerGroup's Chairman and CEO, Mr. Jonas Pricing. Sir, you may begin.

歡迎參加萬寶盛華第二季獲利電話會議。 （操作員說明）此通話正在錄音。如果您現在想下車，請這樣做。我現在想將電話轉給萬寶盛華集團董事長兼執行長喬納斯·普里辛先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Welcome and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2024 conference call. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jack McGinnis, is with me today. For your convenience, we have included in our prepared remarks within the Investor Relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com.

歡迎並感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第二季電話會議。我們的財務長傑克麥金尼斯今天和我在一起。為了您的方便，我們已將準備好的評論納入我們網站 manpowergroup.com 的投資者關係部分。

I'll start by going through some of the highlights of the quarter, and Jack will go through the second quarter results and guidance for the third quarter of 2024. I'll then share some concluding thoughts before we start our Q&A session. Jack will now cover the Safe Harbor language.

我將首先介紹本季度的一些亮點，傑克將介紹 2024 年第二季度的業績和第三季度的指導。傑克現在將介紹安全港語言。

Good morning, everyone. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, including statements concerning economic and geopolitical uncertainty, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs.

大家早安。本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關經濟和地緣政治不確定性的陳述，這些陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響。這些陳述是基於管理層目前的期望或信念。

Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We assume no obligations to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Slide 2 of our earnings release presentation further identify forward looking statements made in this call and factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially and information regarding reconciliation of non-GAAP measures.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。我們的收益發布簡報的投影片 2 進一步確定了本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性陳述以及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素以及有關非公認會計準則措施調節的資訊。

Thank you, Jack. We are speaking with you today from our global headquarters in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. All eyes are on our city this weak as it host one of the major events on the US political calendar. Just a few days ago, we were pleased to welcome ambassadors from around the world to a breakfast event. During our time together, we discussed the labor market in there, countries, particularly as many of them, are undergoing shifts in the political landscape.

謝謝你，傑克。我們今天在威斯康辛州密爾瓦基的全球總部與您交談。所有的目光都集中在我們這座如此脆弱的城市上，因為它主辦了美國政治日曆上的重大活動之一。就在幾天前，我們很高興地歡迎來自世界各地的大使參加早餐活動。在我們在一起的時間裡，我們討論了那裡的勞動市場，這些國家，特別是其中許多國家，正在經歷政治格局的轉變。

Based on these conversations and with business leaders worldwide, it is evident that were and rapidly changing times geopolitical uncertainty persists, technology continues to advance, and the economic rulebook is still being rewritten post pandemic.

根據這些對話以及與世界各地商界領袖的對話，很明顯，在快速變化的時代，地緣政治的不確定性仍然存在，技術不斷進步，大流行後的經濟規則仍在被改寫。

Still, labor markets remain solid in many areas with relatively low unemployment and layoffs activity. Our most recent employment outlook survey of over 40,000 employers this spring found that hiring confidence is holding steady at lower levels compared to a year ago, as economic uncertainty continues to give employers pause and economies in Europe and North America are gradually cooling with inflation moderating.

儘管如此，許多地區的勞動市場依然穩健，失業率和裁員活動相對較低。我們今年春季對超過40,000 名雇主進行的最新就業前景調查發現，與一年前相比，招聘信心穩定在較低水平，因為經濟不確定性繼續讓雇主猶豫不決，而且歐洲和北美經濟隨著通膨放緩而逐漸降溫。

Many large enterprise clients are prioritizing hiring for the core skills they need and holding onto the skilled workers they have. At the same time for the promise of AI is yet to be realized in front of mind for businesses across every industry. We are convinced that the potential of AI at scale will only be realized, but it augments human capabilities and skills.

許多大型企業客戶都優先考慮招募他們所需的核心技能，並保留他們擁有的技術工人。同時，各行業企業尚未實現人工智慧的承諾。我們堅信，人工智慧的潛力只會被大規模實現，但它會增強人類的能力和技能。

Many companies recognize this need and are developing their current workforce, while selectively adding new talent. Priority is placed on retaining and attracting workers with specialized flexible skills and an adaptable mindset to adjust to the evolving requirements in the workplace.

許多公司意識到這項需求，正在培養現有的員工隊伍，同時有選擇地增加新人才。優先考慮保留和吸引具有專業靈活技能和適應性思維的員工，以適應工作場所不斷變化的要求。

This focus on workforce development to maximize potential is more evident now than ever. Our business operates at the intersection of worker preferences and employer priorities. Our research tells us that more than 6 in 10 believe AI and machine learning will have a positive impact on business performance and 70% plan to boost upskilling efforts accordingly.

現在比以往任何時候都更明顯地註重勞動力發展以最大限度地發揮潛力。我們的業務在員工偏好和雇主優先事項的交叉點上運作。我們的研究表明，超過十分之六的人認為人工智慧和機器學習將對業務績效產生積極影響，70% 的人計劃相應地加大技能提升。

Our surveys also tell us the 43% of workers fuel neutral or negative about AI's impact on their jobs and futures. We have an opportunity to guide both employers and workers through this moment of transformation. Through our partnerships with clients, we believe this is a significant opportunity key for us: finding skilled talent and bridging the skills gaps across industries with our Manpower, MyPath and Experis Academy training programs.

我們的調查也告訴我們，43% 的員工對人工智慧對其工作和未來的影響持中立或消極態度。我們有機會引導雇主和工人度過這轉型時刻。透過與客戶的合作，我們相信這對我們來說是一個重要的機會：透過我們的 Manpower、MyPath 和 Experis Academy 培訓計劃尋找技術人才並縮小各行業的技能差距。

While we have seen a growing focus on workforce retention and development, we have not yet seen the inflection point of widespread demand improvements, but we have seen underlying soft staffing trends broadly stabilized in North America and Europe, with Asia and Latin America continuing to hold up well.

雖然我們看到人們越來越關注勞動力保留和發展，但我們尚未看到廣泛需求改善的拐點，但我們看到北美和歐洲的潛在軟人員配置趨勢大體穩定，亞洲和拉丁美洲繼續保持不變起來很好。

We are convinced that are focused on specialized skills and our Manpower business is the right strategy and early results demonstrate increased demand from mid-level skills within several key end market verticals such as automotive, aerospace and logistics.

我們相信，專注於專業技能和我們的人力業務是正確的策略，早期結果顯示汽車、航空航太和物流等幾個關鍵終端市場垂直領域對中級技能的需求不斷增加。

Turning to our results. In the second quarter, revenue was $4.5 billion, down 3% year-over-year in constant currency. Our reported EBITA for the quarter was $109 million. Adjusting for final one-off charges of our Proservia business in Germany, EBITA was $112 million, representing a decrease of 9% in constant currency year-over-year. Reported EBITA margin was 2.4% and adjusted EBITA margin was 2.5%.

轉向我們的結果。第二季營收為 45 億美元，以固定匯率計算年減 3%。我們報告的本季 EBITA 為 1.09 億美元。在德國 Proservia 業務的最終一次性費用進行調整後，EBITA 為 1.12 億美元，以固定匯率計算年減 9%。報告的 EBITA 利潤率為 2.4%，調整後的 EBITA 利潤率為 2.5%。

Earnings per diluted share was $1.24 on a reported basis while earnings per diluted share was $1.30 on an adjusted basis. Adjusted earnings per share decrease 12% year-over-year in constant currency. Although the environment continues to be challenging, our business and our people are resilient. Our diversified business mix and geographic footprint are serving us well.

報告基礎上攤薄每股收益為 1.24 美元，調整後每股攤薄收益為 1.30 美元。以固定匯率計算，調整後每股盈餘較去年同期下降 12%。儘管環境仍然充滿挑戰，但我們的業務和員工充滿活力。我們多元化的業務組合和地理足跡為我們提供了良好的服務。

We are confident that our strategies are positioning us well for future profitable growth. We continue to reimagine our workflows and processes with the goal to enhance our future productivity and ROI. And we continue to serve as an expert guide for our clients as they adapt to a changing environment.

我們相信，我們的策略使我們能夠為未來的獲利成長做好準備。我們繼續重新構想我們的工作流程和流程，以提高未來的生產力和投資報酬率。我們將繼續為客戶適應不斷變化的環境提供專家指導。

I'll now turn it over to Jack to take you through the results in more detail.

現在我將把它交給 Jack，讓您更詳細地了解結果。

Thanks, Jonas. Revenues in the second quarter came in slightly above the midpoint of our constant currency guidance range. As adjusted gross profit margin came in slightly below our guidance range and slightly lower than expected permanent recruitment activity. As adjusted EBITA was $112 million, representing a 9% decrease in constant currency compared to the prior year period.

謝謝，喬納斯。第二季的收入略高於我們固定匯率指引範圍的中點。由於調整後的毛利率略低於我們的指導範圍，並略低於預期的永久招聘活動。調整後的 EBITA 為 1.12 億美元，以固定匯率計算，與去年同期相比下降 9%。

As adjusted EBITA margin was 2.5% and came in at the midpoint of our guidance range for presenting 20 basis points of decline year over year. During the quarter year over year, foreign currency movements had an impact on our results. Foreign currency translation drove a 3.5% unfavorable impact to the US dollar reported revenue trend. In addition to the constant currency decrease of 3%. Organic days, adjusted constant currency revenue decreased 4% quarter in line with our guidance.

調整後的 EBITA 利潤率為 2.5%，處於我們指導範圍的中點，較去年同期下降 20 個基點。本季與去年同期相比，外匯變動對我們的業績產生了影響。外幣換算對美元報告的收入趨勢產生了 3.5% 的不利影響。另外貨幣持續下跌3%。有機天數，調整後的固定貨幣收入季度下降 4%，與我們的指引一致。

Turning to the EPS bridge, reported net earnings per share was $1.24, which included $0.06 related to the runoff of our Proservia managed services business in Germany. I am pleased to report the financial impact of the wind down of the Germany Proservia business is now complete and will not impact our results in future quarters.

談到 EPS 橋，報告的每股淨利潤為 1.24 美元，其中包括與德國 Proservia 託管服務業務流失相關的 0.06 美元。我很高興地向大家報告，德國 Proservia 業務結束的財務影響現已完成，不會影響我們未來幾季的業績。

Excluding the Proservia run-off costs, adjusted EPS was $1.30 and came in slightly above the midpoint of our guidance range. Walking from our guidance midpoint, our results include a stronger operational performance of $0.02 per weighted average shares due to share repurchases in the quarter, which had a positive impact of $0.01, a higher tax rate on country mix which had a negative impact of $0.03, a foreign currency impact that was $0.01 worse than our guidance, and interest and other expenses had a positive impact of $0.02.

不包括 Proservia 徑流成本，調整後每股收益為 1.30 美元，略高於我們指導範圍的中點。從我們的指導中點開始，我們的結果包括由於本季度的股票回購，每股加權平均股的營運業績更強勁，達到0.02 美元，這產生了0.01 美元的積極影響，國家組合稅率提高，產生了0.03 美元的負面影響，外幣影響比我們的指導低 0.01 美元，而利息和其他費用則產生了 0.02 美元的正面影響。

Next, let's review our revenue by business line. Year over year, on an organic constant currency basis, the Manpower brand declined by 2% in the quarter, the Experis brand declined by 7%, and the Talent Solutions brand had a revenue decline of 9%.

接下來，我們按業務線回顧我們的收入。與去年同期相比，以自然固定匯率計算，Manpower 品牌本季下降了 2%，Experis 品牌下降了 7%，Talent Solutions 品牌的營收下降了 9%。

Within Talent Solutions, our RPO business experienced a year-over-year revenue decline which was a slight improvement from the trend in the first quarter. Our MSP business revenues increased compared to the prior year period reflecting sequential improvement from the first quarter trend, while Right Management also experienced year-over-year revenue growth on higher outplacement volumes in the quarter.

在人才解決方案領域，我們的 RPO 業務收入年減，但較第一季的趨勢略有改善。我們的 MSP 業務收入與上年同期相比有所增長，反映出與第一季趨勢相比的連續改善，而 Right Management 也因本季度就業量增加而實現了同比收入增長。

Looking at our gross profit margin in detail, our gross margin came in at 17.4% for the quarter. Staffing margin contributed a 10 basis points reduction due to mix shifts and lower volumes while pricing remained solid. Permanent recruitment, including Talent Solutions RPO, contributed a 50 basis points GP margin reduction as permanent hiring activity in the second quarter decreased year over year.

詳細看我們的毛利率，本季毛利率為 17.4%。由於組合變化和銷售下降，人員配置利潤率下降了 10 個基點，而定價保持穩定。由於第二季永久招募活動年減，包括人才解決方案 RPO 在內的永久招募導致 GP 利潤率下降 50 個基點。

During the quarter, we saw a greater than expected slowing in permanent recruitment, particularly in Europe, contributing to a slightly higher drag on our gross profit margin. Right Management career transition within Talent Solutions contributed 10 basis points of improvement as outplacement activity continued to be solid in the second quarter. Other items resulted in a 10 basis points margin increase.

本季度，我們發現長期招聘放緩幅度超出預期，尤其是在歐洲，這對我們的毛利率造成了略微更高的拖累。由於第二季的再就業活動持續保持穩健，人才解決方案內的正確管理職涯轉型貢獻了 10 個基點的改進。其他項目導致利潤率增加 10 個基點。

Moving onto our gross profit by business line. During the quarter, the Manpower brand comprised 60% of gross profit, our Experis professional business comprised 24%, and Talent Solutions comprised 16%. During the quarter, our consolidated gross profit decreased by 6% on an organic constant currency basis year over year, representing an improvement from the 9% decline in the first quarter.

轉向我們按業務線劃分的毛利。本季度，Manpower 品牌佔毛利的 60%，Experis 專業業務佔 24%，Talent Solutions 佔 16%。本季度，我們的綜合毛利以有機固定匯率計算年減 6%，較第一季 9% 的降幅有所改善。

Our Manpower brand reported an organic gross profit decrease of 4% in constant currency year-over-year, an improvement from the 6% decline in the first quarter. Gross profit in our Experis brand decreased 7% in organic constant currency year-over-year, an improvement from the 16% decrease in the first quarter. Gross profit in Talent Solutions decreased 11% in organic constant currency year-over-year, representing a stable trend from the first quarter

我們的 Manpower 品牌報告稱，以固定匯率計算，有機毛利年減 4%，較第一季下降 6% 有所改善。以有機固定匯率計算，Experis 品牌的毛利年減 7%，較第一季 16% 的下降有所改善。 Talent Solutions 的毛利以有機固定匯率計算年減 11%，與第一季相比保持穩定趨勢

Although RPO volumes were slightly lower in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter. MSP delivered an improved GP trend from the first quarter while Right Management achieved GP growth on solid outplacement activity.

儘管第二季的 RPO 數量較上一季略有下降。 MSP 的 GP 趨勢較第一季有所改善，而 Right Management 則透過紮實的再就業活動實現了 GP 成長。

Reported SG&A expense in the quarter was $685 million. Excluding the run-off of our Germany Proservia business, SG&A was 5% lower year-over-year on a constant currency basis. This reflects an average organic headcount during Q2 that was an 11% reduction compared to the year earlier period. We expect our digitization strategy focused on transforming back-office functions will drive further cost efficiencies and our corporate expenses reflect this investment.

本季報告的 SG&A 費用為 6.85 億美元。不包括德國 Proservia 業務的流失，以固定匯率計算，SG&A 年減 5%。這反映了第二季度的平均有機員工人數與去年同期相比減少了 11%。我們預計，專注於轉變後台職能的數位化策略將進一步提高成本效率，而我們的企業支出也反映了這項投資。

These strategic investments are progressing nicely and are expected to drive medium and long-term productivity and efficiency enhancements across our technology and finance functions worldwide through shared service centers leveraging leading global technology platforms. The underlying year-over-year SG&A decreases largely consisted of reductions in operational costs of $36 million and currency changes of $20 million.

這些策略投資進展順利，預計將透過利用全球領先技術平台的共享服務中心，推動我們全球技術和財務職能部門的中長期生產力和效率提升。 SG&A 年減主要包括營運成本減少 3,600 萬美元和貨幣變動 2,000 萬美元。

Adjusted SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue represented 15.0% in constant currency in the second quarter. The final Proservia Germany run-off expense represented $2 million. The Americas segment comprised 24% of consolidated revenue.

以固定匯率計算，第二季調整後的 SG&A 費用佔營收的百分比為 15.0%。 Proservia 德國最終決選費用為 200 萬美元。美洲業務佔合併收入的 24%。

Revenue in the quarter was $1.1 billion, representing an increase of 5% compared to the prior year period on a constant currency basis. OUP was $45 million and OUP margin was 4.2%. The US is the largest country in the Americas segment, comprising 65% of segment revenues. Revenue in the U.S. was $697 million during the quarter, representing a 2% days adjusted decrease, compared to the prior year.

該季度營收為 11 億美元，以固定匯率計算比去年同期成長 5%。 OUP 為 4500 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 4.2%。美國是美洲細分市場中最大的國家，佔該細分市場收入的 65%。該季度美國地區的營收為 6.97 億美元，與前一年相比，調整後的天數下降了 2%。

OUP for our US business was $27 million in the quarter representing an increase of 16% after adjusting the prior year for minor restructuring costs. OUP margin was 3.9%. Within the US the Manpower brand comprised 24% of gross profit during the quarter.

本季我們美國業務的 OUP 為 2,700 萬美元，在調整上一年的小額重組成本後成長了 16%。 OUP 利潤率為 3.9%。在美國，萬寶盛華品牌佔本季毛利的 24%。

Revenue for the Manpower brand in the US decreased 2% during the quarter, which was an improvement from the 13% decline in the first quarter. The Experis brand in the US comprised 47% of gross profit in the quarter.

美國萬寶盛華品牌的營收本季下降了 2%，較第一季 13% 的下降有所改善。美國的 Experis 品牌佔本季毛利的 47%。

Within Experis in the US, IT skills comprised approximately 90% of revenues. Experis US revenue decreased 3% days adjusted during the quarter, an improvement from the 6% decline in the first quarter. The US Experis business experienced significant healthcare IT Go Live project volumes in the second quarter that are not expected to recur into the third quarter.

在美國的 Experis 中，IT 技能約佔收入的 90%。 Experis US 營收在本季調整後天數下降 3%，較第一季 6% 的降幅有所改善。美國 Experis 業務在第二季度經歷了龐大的醫療保健 IT 上線專案量，預計第三季不會再出現這種情況。

Talent Solutions in the US contributed 29% of gross profit and experienced revenue decline of 2% in the quarter, stable from the 2% decline in the first quarter. RPO revenue declines in the US reflected a further softening of permanent hiring programs in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. The US MSP business accomplished a solid revenue increase representing an improvement from the first quarter, while outplacement activity within our Right Management business experienced stable trends year over year.

美國的Talent Solutions貢獻了29%的毛利，本季營收下降2%，較第一季下降2%持平。美國 RPO 收入下降反映了第二季永久性招聘計劃與第一季相比進一步疲軟。美國 MSP 業務實現了穩健的營收成長，較第一季有所改善，而我們的 Right Management 業務中的再就業活動則呈現出同比穩定的趨勢。

In the third quarter of 2024, we expect the revenue decline to be slightly higher than the second quarter decline for our overall US business largely due to the completion of the healthcare IT Go Live projects in the second quarter.

2024 年第三季度，我們預計美國整體業務的營收降幅將略高於第二季的降幅，這主要是由於第二季醫療保健 IT 上線專案的完成。

Southern Europe revenue comprised 46% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue in Southern Europe was $2.1 billion, representing a 4% decrease in constant currency. OUP for our Southern Europe business was $83 million in the quarter and OUP margin was 4.0%.

南歐收入佔本季合併收入的 46%。南歐營收為 21 億美元，以固定匯率計算下降 4%。本季南歐業務的 OUP 為 8,300 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 4.0%。

France revenue comprised 56% of the Southern Europe segment in the quarter and decreased 6% in days adjusted constant currency. OUP for our France business was $40 million in the quarter representing a decrease of 18% on a constant currency basis. OUP margin was 3.4%.

本季法國營收佔南歐市場的 56%，以天數調整後的固定匯率計算下降 6%。本季我們法國業務的 OUP 為 4,000 萬美元，以固定匯率計算下降了 18%。 OUP 利潤率為 3.4%。

Activity to date in July 2024 is largely consistent with trends experienced in the second quarter. We are estimating the year over year constant currency revenue trend in the third quarter for France to reflect a slight improvement in the rate of decline from the second quarter trend based on the step down in the prior year period.

2024 年 7 月迄今的活動與第二季的趨勢基本一致。我們預期法國第三季貨幣收入將年比恆定趨勢，以反映在去年同期下降的基礎上，第二季下降趨勢略有改善。

Revenue in Italy equaled $435 million in the second quarter reflecting a decrease of 4% on a days adjusted constant currency basis. OUP equaled $34 million and OUP margin was 7.8%. We estimate that Italy will also have a slightly improved constant currency revenue trend in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

第二季義大利營收為 4.35 億美元，以天數調整後的固定匯率計算下降 4%。 OUP 相當於 3,400 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 7.8%。我們預計，義大利第三季的恆定貨幣收入趨勢也將較第二季略有改善。

Our Northern Europe segment comprised 18% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue of $837 million represented a 12% decline in constant currency. As adjusted to exclude the run-off Proservia Germany business, OUP was $1 million and OUP margin was 0.1%.

我們的北歐業務佔本季合併收入的 18%。以固定匯率計算，營收為 8.37 億美元，下降 12%。經調整以排除決選的 Proservia 德國業務後，OUP 為 100 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 0.1%。

Our largest market in the Northern Europe segment is the UK, which represented 35% of segment revenues in the quarter. During the quarter, UK revenues decreased 15% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis. This reflects a slight worsening in the rate of decline from the first quarter on this same basis.

我們在北歐細分市場的最大市場是英國，佔本季細分市場收入的 35%。本季度，以天調整固定匯率計算，英國營收下降了 15%。這反映出在同一基礎上，下降速度較第一季略有惡化。

We expect a slightly improved rate of revenue decline in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. In Germany, revenues decreased 18% in days-adjusted constant currency in the quarter. Our German business revenue trend was impacted by select plant closures in the automotive sector during the second quarter.

我們預計第三季營收下降幅度較第二季略有改善。在德國，以天數調整後的固定匯率計算，本季營收下降了 18%。我們的德國業務收入趨勢受到第二季汽車業部分工廠關閉的影響。

As previously reported, the financial impact of the wind down of our Proservia managed services business in Germany was completed during the quarter. In the third quarter, we are expecting an improved year-over-year revenue decline compared to the second quarter.

正如之前所報導的那樣，我們在德國的 Proservia 託管服務業務的結束所帶來的財務影響已在本季度完成。與第二季相比，我們預計第三季營收年減將有所改善。

The Asia Pacific Middle East segment comprises 12% of total company revenue. In the quarter, revenues equaled $541 million representing a decrease of 1% in organic constant currency. OUP was $25 million and OUP margin was 4.6%.

亞太中東業務占公司總收入的 12%。本季營收為 5.41 億美元，以有機固定匯率計算下降 1%。 OUP 為 2,500 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 4.6%。

Our largest market in the APME segment is Japan, which represented 51% of segment revenues in the quarter. Revenue in Japan grew 9% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis. We remain very pleased with the consistent performance of our Japan business, and we expect continued strong revenue growth in the third quarter.

我們在 APME 細分市場中最大的市場是日本，佔本季細分市場收入的 51%。以天數調整的固定匯率計算，日本的營收成長了 9%。我們對日本業務的持續表現感到非常滿意，我們預計第三季的營收將繼續強勁成長。

I'll now turn to cash flow and balance sheet. In the second quarter, similar to the prior year seasonal dynamic, free cash flow represented an outflow of $150 million during the quarter and compares to a cash outflow of $177 million in the prior year.

我現在轉向現金流和資產負債表。在第二季度，與去年季節性動態類似，自由現金流代表該季度流出 1.5 億美元，而上年現金流出為 1.77 億美元。

As in the prior year, the outflow was driven by the timing of payables and timing of payments within our large MSP business. At quarter end, days sales outstanding decreased by about 3 days to 56 days. During the second quarter, capital expenditures represented $12 million. During the second quarter we repurchased 371,000 shares of stock for $27 million.

與前一年一樣，資金流出是由我們大型 MSP 業務中的應付帳款時間和付款時間所推動的。季度末，應收帳款週轉天數減少約 3 天至 56 天。第二季資本支出為 1200 萬美元。第二季度，我們以 2,700 萬美元回購了 371,000 股股票。

As of June 30, we have 3.6 million shares remaining for repurchase under the share program approved in August of 2023. Our balance sheet ended the quarter with cash of $469 million and total debt of $1.1 billion. Net debt equaled $630 million at quarter end. Our debt ratios at quarter-end reflect total gross debt to trailing twelve months adjusted EBITDA of [2.3] and total debt to total capitalization at 34%.

截至 6 月 30 日，根據 2023 年 8 月批准的股票計劃，我們尚有 360 萬股可供回購。季末淨債務為 6.3 億美元。我們季度末的負債比率反映了總負債與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 [2.3]，總負債與總資本的比率為 34%。

Our debt and credit facilities arrangements remained unchanged during the quarter as displayed in the appendix of the presentation. Next, I'll review our outlook for the third quarter of 2024. Based on trends in the second quarter and July activity to date, our forecast anticipates that the third quarter will continue to be challenging in North America and Europe.

正如簡報附錄所示，我們的債務和信貸安排在本季保持不變。接下來，我將回顧我們對 2024 年第三季的展望。

Our forecast for Q3 also anticipates ongoing low levels of permanent recruitment activity. With that said, we are forecasting earnings per share for the third quarter to be in the range of $1.25 to $1.35. The guidance range also includes an unfavorable foreign currency impact of $0.05 per share and our foreign currency translation rate estimates are disclosed at the bottom of the guidance slide.

我們對第三季的預測也預計長期招募活動將持續保持在低水準。儘管如此，我們預計第三季每股收益將在 1.25 美元至 1.35 美元之間。指導範圍還包括每股 0.05 美元的不利外幣影響，我們的外幣換算率估計值披露在指導幻燈片的底部。

Our constant currency revenue guidance range is between a decrease of 4% and flat and at the midpoint is a 2% decrease. Although the impact of net dispositions is slight there are slightly more working days in the third quarter this year contributing to 1% additional decrease on an organic days-adjusted constant currency basis representing a 3% decrease at the mid-point.

我們的固定貨幣收入指引範圍為下降 4% 至持平，中間為下降 2%。儘管淨處置的影響很小，但今年第三季的工作日略有增加，導致以有機天數調整的固定貨幣基礎計算額外減少 1%，相當於中點減少 3%。

This represents a slight improvement compared to the second quarter trend on this same basis. EBITA margin for the third quarter is projected to be flat at the midpoint compared to the prior year. We estimate that the effective tax rate for the third quarter will be 34% which reflects the overall mix effect of lower earnings from lower tax geographies in the current environment.

與同一基礎上的第二季趨勢相比，這表示略有改善。與去年同期相比，第三季的 EBITA 利潤率預計將持平於中位數。我們預計第三季的有效稅率將為 34%，這反映了當前環境下低稅收地區獲利下降的整體混合效應。

As usual, our guidance does not incorporate restructuring charges or additional share repurchases and we estimate our weighted average shares to be 48.5 million. Our guidance also does not include the impact of the noncash hyperinflationary balance sheet related currency translation adjustment for our Argentina business and we will also report that separately if it is a meaningful amount.

與往常一樣，我們的指導不包括重組費用或額外的股票回購，我們估計我們的加權平均股票為 4850 萬股。我們的指導也不包括與非現金惡性通貨膨脹資產負債表相關的貨幣換算調整對我們阿根廷業務的影響，如果這是一個有意義的金額，我們也將單獨報告。

I will now turn it back to Jonas.

我現在將其轉回給喬納斯。

Thank you, Jack. We are committed to adjusting our portfolio, managing costs while making strategic investments in the areas we predict will shift the needle. We remain confident in our diversification, digitization and innovation strategy and are making good progress.

謝謝你，傑克。我們致力於調整我們的投資組合，管理成本，同時在我們預測將扭轉局勢的領域進行策略性投資。我們對多元化、數位化和創新策略充滿信心，並取得良好進展。

In digitization, we see the potential for AI to produce new workflows, streamline processes and improve the candidate experience. We are already making progress in these efforts with pilots in our recruiter platforms where we are integrating GenAI prompts and taking a learn, adapt and scale approach.

在數位化方面，我們看到人工智慧在產生新工作流程、簡化流程和改善候選人體驗方面的潛力。我們已經在招募平台的試點工作中取得了進展，我們正在整合 GenAI 提示並採取學習、適應和擴展的方法。

Our rich global data will fuel better insights for our clients and candidates, and the work we are doing to consolidate data globally and reskill workers in the age of AI is a critical step in building a foundation that is future fit. We know our clients value our expertise in this area and turn to us for guidance.

我們豐富的全球數據將為我們的客戶和候選人提供更好的見解，而我們正在進行的整合全球數據和在人工智慧時代重新培訓員工的工作是建立適合未來的基礎的關鍵一步。我們知道我們的客戶重視我們在該領域的專業知識，並向我們尋求指導。

In May, we showcased our innovations at VivaTech in Paris, the premier European tech and startup conference. Over 100 clients visited our ManpowerGroup France headquarters to discuss the transformation of recruiting and how human capabilities are at the heart of how the future of work will evolve in the AI era.

五月份，我們在巴黎 VivaTech 歐洲頂尖科技和新創公司會議上展示了我們的創新成果。超過 100 位客戶參觀了我們的萬寶盛華法國總部，討論了招募的變革，以及人類能力如何成為人工智慧時代未來工作發展的核心。

We know clients choose to work with us because our strong brands Manpower, Experis and Talent Solutions are proven global leaders. In June, Talent Solutions was named a global leader in Recruitment Process Outsourcing by Everest Group for the 14th year. Everest recognized our strong vision and strategy, the quality of our recruiters and continued investments in innovation.

我們知道客戶選擇與我們合作是因為我們的強大品牌 Manpower、Experis 和 Talent Solutions 是公認的全球領導者。 6 月，Talent Solutions 連續 14 年被 Everest Group 評為招募流程外包全球領導者。 Everest 認可了我們強大的願景和策略、招募人員的品質以及對創新的持續投資。

While consecutive recognitions prove we are consistent in the quality of our services and delivery strength, new accolades show we are committed to pushing ourselves to achieve more. Recently, we were named by Time Magazine as a World's Most Sustainable company, the only company in our industry to be recognized and in the top ten for professional services.

雖然連續的認可證明我們的服務品質和交付實力始終如一，但新的榮譽表明我們致力於推動自己取得更多成就。最近，我們被《時代》雜誌評為“全球最具永續發展能力的公司”，這是我們行業中唯一一家獲得認可並躋身專業服務前十名的公司。

For us, sustainability is not a trend or a marketing slogan. It's about growing our business in partnership with our clients, while helping people be successful and also caring for the planet which is vital for our shared future prosperity.

對我們來說，永續發展不是一種趨勢或行銷口號。這是為了與客戶合作發展我們的業務，同時幫助人們取得成功，並關心地球，這對我們共同的未來繁榮至關重要。

Job seekers, clients, and partners choose to work with us because of these values and this recognition is a result of our sustainability champions data driven approach worldwide, as we strive for more transparent reporting and higher global standards year after year.

求職者、客戶和合作夥伴選擇與我們合作是因為這些價值觀，這種認可是我們在全球範圍內倡導數據驅動的可持續發展方法的結果，因為我們年復一年地努力實現更透明的報告和更高的全球標準。

With that, I'd like to close by thanking our clients, candidates, and investors for placing their trust in us, and our people for dedicating their time and skills to us.

最後，我要感謝我們的客戶、候選人和投資者對我們的信任，以及我們的員工為我們奉獻了時間和技能。

Operator, please open the line for Q&A

接線員，請開通問答線路

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

Jeff Silber，BMO 資本市場。

Thanks so much. Wanted to start focusing first on the US. You talked about some of the trends in the second quarter versus the third quarter. I know you highlighted kind of Go Live project Experis that if I take that out, it looks like the trends will be relatively flattish at least on a year over year comparative basis.

非常感謝。想先開始關注美國。您談到了第二季與第三季的一些趨勢。我知道您強調了上線專案的經驗，如果我把它去掉，看起來至少在同比比較的基礎上趨勢將相對平坦。

Can we just get a little bit more color what's going on in the US in terms of the underlying growth there, what your customers are saying et cetera?

我們能否更了解美國正在發生的潛在成長情況、您的客戶的評價等等？

Good morning, Jeff. Yes, we were very pleased to see in the US come in a bit better in the second quarter. But as you correctly point out, the underlying activities as we project into the third quarter really emphasizes stability. And we had some good movement in Manpower Experis and also in Talent Solutions in the US. And we expect that stability to continue.

早安，傑夫。是的，我們很高興看到美國第二季的情況有所改善。但正如您正確指出的那樣，我們預計第三季的基本活動確實強調穩定性。我們在美國的人力體驗和人才解決方案方面也取得了一些良好的進展。我們預計這種穩定性將持續下去。

We don't see this at this time all of a as an inflection point, but broadly stabilized a broadly seeing stabilization is positive because we feel that the markets have stabilized then that we are able to get some new opportunities in the market, although demand still remains soft in the US.

我們目前並不認為這是一個轉捩點，但整體穩定是積極的，因為我們認為市場已經穩定下來，我們能夠在市場上獲得一些新的機會，儘管需求美國市場仍然疲軟。

Right, Great. If I could shift over to just worldwide term, you specifically focused on some of the time weakness in Europe, maybe we can get a little bit more color. What's going on there? And are you seeing anything similar in perm in North America? Thanks.

對了，太好了。如果我可以轉向全球範圍，你特別關注歐洲的一些時間弱點，也許我們可以得到更多的色彩。那裡發生了什麼事？您在北美看過類似的燙髮嗎？謝謝。

We are seeing utilization also impairment in North America and in the UK as well. But broadly, I would say [perm] has come down a little bit more, so slightly softer in the second quarter than it was in the first quarter. And when you think about that is really playing out in terms of the industry and market dynamics the way, you'd expect.

我們發現北美和英國的利用率也受到損害。但總的來說，我想說第二季的[燙髮]下降幅度比第一季稍微軟。當你想到這確實在行業和市場動態方面發揮作用時，你會想到。

Employer confidence is still fragile and that means hiring will come down slightly and they will prioritize when resources are needed, temporary staffing for Manpower or of having additional 90 consultants for Experis. So you can see that the staffing business across our brands is holding up better than perm.

雇主信心仍然脆弱，這意味著招募人數將略有下降，他們將優先考慮何時需要資源、為 Manpower 配備臨時人員或為 Experis 增加 90 名顧問。所以你可以看到我們品牌的人力資源業務比燙髮業務表現得更好。

Yeah, Jeff, this is Jack. I would just add to that on the progress. As far as we ended the first quarter, we saw that perm was stronger in Europe. And I'd say the development during the second quarter was we saw Europe particularly coming down a bit softer in permanent.

是的，傑夫，這是傑克。我只想補充一下進展。截至第一季末，我們發現歐洲的燙髮趨勢更為強勁。我想說的是，第二季的發展是我們看到歐洲尤其是在永久性方面出現了一些疲軟的情況。

I'd say the two markets I would call out where it did soften noticeably sequentially, I would say would be France and Italy, two of our larger businesses where we have good perm activities. But as Jonas said, I think that the US was more in line with our expectations in terms of permanent. But I'd say in Europe it was a bit softer.

我想說的是，我想說的是法國和義大利，這是我們兩個較大的企業，我們在這兩個市場上有良好的燙髮活動。但正如喬納斯所說，我認為美國在永久方面更符合我們的預期。但我想說的是歐洲的情況要溫和一點。

I appreciate the call. Thanks so much.

我很感謝您的來電。非常感謝。

Kartik Mehta, Northcoast Research.

Kartik Mehta，北海岸研究中心。

Good morning. Wanted to ask a little bit about the pricing environment. I think you indicated that it's still stable. One are you at is are you at all surprised the market is still stable considering the pressure that's put on revenue, and I'm also wondering on the permanent side, do you see any kind of pricing pressure?

早安.想詢問一下定價環境。我認為你表明它仍然穩定。您的一個問題是，考慮到收入所承受的壓力，您對市場仍然穩定感到驚訝嗎？

Good morning, Kartik. I would say that pricing remains rational. It's always a competitive environment and the reason we think our pricing remained stable at the underlying of labor markets remain solid. In almost all of the geographies where we operate.

早安，卡提克。我想說的是，定價仍然是理性的。這始終是一個競爭激烈的環境，我們認為我們的定價在勞動市場的基礎上保持穩定的原因仍然穩固。在我們開展業務的幾乎所有地區。

So demand and the access to talent is still restrained to some degree and that we have seen a moderation, of course, in wage inflation across the geographies. But the pricing environment and the attractiveness of talent means that we've been able to maintain our pricing discipline. And as I mentioned, it is a rational overall.

因此，需求和人才獲取仍然受到一定程度的限制，當然，我們已經看到各個地區的薪資通膨有所放緩。但定價環境和人才吸引力意味著我們能夠維持定價紀律。正如我所提到的，總體而言這是一個理性的結果。

We also see that price rationality and stability reflected in our fees on the perm side, it's just that demand for the perm placements is down. And we can see that as a as an effect on both weakness on the demand side. And as Jack had just mentioned, most of that weakness, the softening that we saw came out of Europe where we've also seen that from a candidate perspective.

我們也看到價格的合理性和穩定性反映在我們的燙髮方面的費用上，只是燙髮安置的需求下降了。我們可以看到這是對需求方面疲軟的影響。正如傑克剛才提到的，我們看到的大部分疲軟來自歐洲，我們也從候選人的角度看到了這一點。

So candidates are less open to changing. So it takes us longer to move candidates into the opportunities. And that's really just a reflection of a degree of uncertainty about what's to come. And it's also very typical for this kind of the phase of the economic cycle.

因此候選人不太願意改變。因此，我們需要更長的時間才能讓候選人獲得機會。這實際上只是反映了對未來的某種程度的不確定性。這對於經濟週期的這種階段來說也是非常典型的。

And then just your perspective on France, obviously, elections occurred there a little bit of a change in the political environment and then the Olympics. I'm wondering if either of those are going to have an impact on your business or in your outlook, the impact on the business because of those things?

然後只是你對法國的看法，顯然，選舉發生在政治環境發生了一些變化的情況下，然後是奧運。我想知道其中任何一個是否會對您的業務或您的前景產生影響，因為這些事情對業務產生影響？

First , I'd like to say, Kartik, we have elections happening all the time. Of course, in this year, we have a lot of elections going on in various parts of the world. And we have a great track record of being able to work with whatever color of version of all it takes is eventually represented in the government.

首先，我想說，卡蒂克，我們一直在進行選舉。當然，今年，世界各地正在進行許多選舉。我們擁有良好的記錄，能夠與最終在政府中代表的任何顏色的版本進行合作。

Clearly, the situation in France is somewhat different because France will either have an interim government that is managing through a split assembly. It's a minority government that is in looking for support either from the extreme left over from the extreme rights or a broader majority government that that's a coalition of a little bit of less center as well as right.

顯然，法國的情況有所不同，因為法國要么有一個通過分裂議會進行管理的臨時政府。這是一個少數派政府，正在尋求來自極右派的極左派的支持，或尋求更廣泛的多數派政府的支持，後者是一個由中間派和右派組成的聯盟。

And that causes some uncertainty in France. And the area of what we see that mostly reflected is going to be in perm hiring. And we saw some of that already in March. But by the same token, when employers need talent and they will look for other more flexible options. And I think that's also what we're seeing in France.

這給法國帶來了一些不確定性。我們看到最反映的領域將是燙髮招募。我們在三月就已經看到了其中的一些情況。但同樣的道理，當雇主需要人才時，他們也會尋找其他更有彈性的選擇。我認為這也是我們在法國看到的情況。

So it is the environment that is a little bit different in the short term. We don't think it's going to have an impact were not at this point too concerned with energy legislation ideas that may come. We think the issue in France is mostly a uncertainty on which direction the country's going short term. We think this is manageable. And then once a new government is established, we better understand the policies that favor pursue.

所以短期內環境會有些不同。我們認為這不會產生影響，目前我們並不太在意可能出現的能源立法想法。我們認為法國的問題主要是該國短期發展方向的不確定性。我們認為這是可以管理的。一旦新政府成立，我們就能更理解有利於推行的政策。

Then we'll then we'll know a bit more. And after the Olympics in, I think we could expect a little bit of a little bit of support there and that it could be a little bit of a bump for our French activity. But remember, the Olympics are really impacting the greater Paris region only and it's only for three weeks. So whilst we could expect to see an increase in act activity, we think it's going to be relatively limited.

然後我們就會知道更多一點。奧運會結束後，我認為我們可以期待在那裡得到一點支持，這可能會對我們的法國活動產生一點影響。但請記住，奧運會實際上只影響大巴黎地區，而且只有三週。因此，雖然我們預期行為活動會增加，但我們認為這將相對有限。

Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

太感謝了。欣賞它。

Thanks Karthik.

謝謝卡蒂克。

Mark Marcon, Baird.

馬克馬爾孔，貝爾德。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. On with regards to our Experis, you know, we did see some improvement in terms of the year over year, decline in the U.S. in terms of going from 6% to 3%. But you did mention that it was it was driven by this healthcare IT Go Live project, which is coming down. So if we strip out that the big health are projects was the underlying trends and how are you feeling about experienced business both in the US. and globally?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。就我們的 Experis 而言，您知道，我們確實看到同比有所改善，美國的下降從 6% 降至 3%。但您確實提到，這是由即將關閉的醫療保健 IT 上線專案所驅動的。因此，如果我們排除大健康項目是潛在趨勢，那麼您對美國經驗豐富的企業有何看法？以及全球範圍內？

Thanks, Mark. Of overall, we feel very good about health experience is positioned. And of course, you're not seeing that underlying stability and two of our biggest markets in the UK and notably in the US we see as positive, which is based on the headwind is that we've seen now in the sector and especially from enterprise clients over the last 12 to 15 months.

謝謝，馬克。整體來說，我們對健康體驗的定位感覺非常好。當然，你沒有看到潛在的穩定性，我們認為英國和美國兩個最大的市場是積極的，這是基於我們現在在該行業看到的逆風，特別是來自過去12 至15 個月的企業客戶。

We feel good about how we are positioned, especially the convenience is clients are small to medium-sized companies. They appear to be holding up a little bit better, and demand is a little bit better on that side. But overall, as we look at the market and the demand situation, we think it's pretty stable in Q2, and we're projecting that stability coming soon will also into the third quarter.

我們對自己的定位感到滿意，特別是為中小型公司客戶提供便利。他們的表現似乎好一些，而這方面的需求也好一些。但總體而言，當我們審視市場和需求狀況時，我們認為第二季相當穩定，我們預計第三季也將很快保持穩定。

So overall stability in the US where the opportunities that you saw us take advantage of in the second quarter suggesting the same underlying stability into Q3 we experienced globally with the UK stabilizing and other markets stabilizing as well, we think is positive.

因此，美國的整體穩定是積極的，您看到我們在第二季度利用的機會表明我們在全球範圍內經歷了與第三季度相同的潛在穩定，英國穩定，其他市場也穩定，我們認為這是積極的。

And we've also seen, you know, the enterprise demand stabilized had a lower level because that was the main driver of the significant declines that we saw last year. So we have a point where we believe the employers and our clients are pleased with where they are a little bit in a wait-and-see position and that we are very well positioned to take advantage of an improvement in demand.

我們也看到，企業需求穩定下來的水平較低，因為這是我們去年看到的大幅下降的主要驅動因素。因此，我們相信雇主和我們的客戶對他們處於觀望狀態感到滿意，我們處於非常有利的位置，可以利用需求的改善。

Mark, I would just add in terms of the impact it had on the rates, the trend in the revenue trends for experienced in Q2. So you mentioned down about 3% days adjusted, I think it was down about 2% rounded on a constant currency basis. The healthcare IT was better than we expected, it was strong in Q1.

馬克，我只想補充它對費率的影響，以及第二季經歷的收入趨勢。因此，您提到調整後的天數下降了約 3%，我認為以固定匯率計算，下降了約 2%。醫療保健 IT 好於我們的預期，第一季表現強勁。

It was even stronger in Q2. So it was probably about 2% to 3% of the underlying trend. And if you take that out, it would have been in line with what we were guiding for because we didn't anticipate as much of the healthcare IT.

第二季甚至更強勁。所以它可能是基本趨勢的 2% 到 3% 左右。如果你把它去掉，它就會符合我們的指導方針，因為我們沒有預期那麼多的醫療 IT。

So that was a benefit for us. So that kind of helps you in terms of determining what it would have been without that. But as Jonas said, I think once you take it out, our guide was anticipating stable underlying trends. Healthcare IT helped lift it further. But if you take that out, I think the business is fairly stable at this point.

所以這對我們來說是一個好處。因此，這可以幫助您確定如果沒有它會是什麼樣子。但正如喬納斯所說，我認為一旦你把它拿出來，我們的指南就會預測穩定的潛在趨勢。醫療保健 IT 幫助進一步提升了這一水平。但如果除去這一點，我認為目前業務相當穩定。

Great. And then can you Jack, this is a question I always have a business from as a percentage of gross profit. Where did that come in? And how are you thinking about that for the third quarter? Because it does sound like perm particularly with the changes in in France, UK, Italy in terms of what you're seeing it might be a little bit lower. So just wondering if you could help us there?

偉大的。傑克，你可以嗎？那是從哪裡來的？您如何看待第三季的情況？因為它聽起來確實像燙髮，特別是在法國、英國、義大利發生的變化，就你所看到的而言，它可能會低一點。所以只是想知道你是否可以幫助我們？

Sure. Perm as a percentage of total GP was 15.7% in Q2, Mark, and I know we talked about that last quarter. It was a bit higher last quarter, up 16.5% just above 16.5%. And that's because the first quarter there's always a seasonal low point for staffing GPs. So it just it just averages in a bit higher.

當然。馬克，彼爾姆在第二季度佔總 GP 的百分比為 15.7%，我知道我們在上個季度討論過這一點。上季略高，成長 16.5%，略高於 16.5%。這是因為第一季全科醫生的招募總是處於季節性低點。所以它只是平均高一點。

But I would say on an overall basis, perm dollars trended sequentially slightly lower than they were in Q1, a bit lower in Europe versus our expectations. But as we think about that 15.7% for Q2, I think that range of about 15.5% is a reasonable range based on what you own this was referring to in terms of stable trends into the third quarter. So I would use that as a bit of an expectation going forward.

但我想說，總體而言，perm 美元的趨勢比第一季略低，歐洲略低於我們的預期。但當我們考慮第二季的 15.7% 時，我認為根據您所擁有的情況，大約 15.5% 的範圍是一個合理的範圍，這指的是第三季的穩定趨勢。所以我會把它當作對未來的一點期望。

Great. And then lastly, Germany, you wound down Proservia. How should we think about Northern Europe, margins, let's say that things remain relatively stable for at least the next few quarters. How should we think about, you know, the underlying improvement in terms of OUP out of Northern Europe, Northern Europe?

偉大的。最後，德國，你擊敗了普羅瑟維亞。我們應該如何看待北歐的利潤率，至少在接下來的幾個季度內，情況將保持相對穩定。你知道，我們應該如何看待北歐的 OUP 方面的根本改善？

We're smart guys, you know, is one of the areas where we're seeing the most pressure at the moment. So I' d say the current indication is really a bit of a low point based on the pressure. And I think as we reported, you saw that the Nordics continued to be an area where we're seeing some of the highest degree of pressure year over year of the UK certainly continues to be one of those markets as well.

我們是聰明人，你知道，這是我們目前壓力最大的領域之一。所以我想說，基於壓力，目前的跡象確實有點低。我認為正如我們所報導的，您看到北歐仍然是我們逐年看到壓力最大的地區，英國當然也仍然是這些市場之一。

But to your point and to your question. Yes, I think we talked about Proservia in the first quarter was a drag of about $7 million to our consolidated results. Now that that is removed, that gives you a bit of an indication of the opportunity here. If you think about that from a run rate perspective, in terms of the impact that had on the drag of our Germany operates the drag of Our Northern Europe segment on an overall basis.

但就你的觀點和問題而言。是的，我認為我們在第一季討論的 Proservia 對我們的綜合業績造成了約 700 萬美元的拖累。現在它已被刪除，這給了你一些關於這裡機會的指示。如果您從運行率的角度考慮這一點，那麼就對我們德國的拖累的影響而言，我們對北歐部分的整體拖累。

So I think it removes a pretty significant drag that we had in the business. We feel really good about our Germany about the prospects for our Germany business going forward on. It's performing fairly well in the automotive sector today.

所以我認為它消除了我們在業務中遇到的相當大的阻力。我們對德國業務的未來前景感到非常滿意。如今它在汽車領域的表現相當不錯。

Germany, of course, is seeing some overall manufacturing weakness. But I think in based on the road relative trends in terms of the industry overall, I think we feel good about our opportunities in Germany. So as we go forward, it removes a pretty significant drag and we'll move Northern Europe back to profitability once we will continue to ease out of this slump that we're in currently, and we start to see more tradition general trends emerge for manufacturing and so forth.

當然，德國製造業整體上出現了一些疲軟。但我認為，根據整個行業的相對趨勢，我認為我們對在德國的機會感到滿意。因此，隨著我們前進，它消除了相當大的阻力，一旦我們繼續擺脫目前所處的低迷狀態，我們將使北歐恢復盈利，並且我們開始看到更多傳統的總體趨勢出現製造等。

And so Northern Europe will be able to surpass where we've been on profitability on before the downturn as we go forward.

因此，隨著我們的前進，北歐的獲利能力將能夠超越經濟衰退之前的水平。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

馬納夫·帕特奈克，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, thanks for taking the questions. Princy Thomas for Manav. I just wanted to see if you could talk further about what's driving greater than expected selling in perm recruitment? And specifically if there's any specific verticals that are impacted more than others that you'd call out?

您好，感謝您提出問題。湯瑪斯王子代表馬納夫。我只是想看看您能否進一步談談是什麼推動了燙髮招募的銷售量超乎預期？具體來說，是否有任何特定的垂直行業比其他行業受到的影響更大？

Princy, thanks for the question. Really is pretty straightforward. As I mentioned, Europe, I'd say the perm softening in Q2 was really more pronounced in Europe as we ended Q1, Europe was stronger in perm. And that real, we started to reverse in the second quarter.

普林西，謝謝你的提問。確實非常簡單。正如我所提到的，歐洲，我想說，隨著第一季的結束，第二季的燙髮軟化在歐洲確實更加明顯，歐洲的燙髮走強。事實上，我們在第二季開始逆轉。

So the two bigger markets for us where we saw perm on edge down slightly sequentially, I would say, would be France and Italy. Those really were the main drivers -- from a sector perspective. I think as Jonas mentioned, more broadly in countries like France, we saw a bit of a broader pullback in perm. I wouldn't say it's isolated to any specific sector.

因此，對我們來說，我們看到燙髮價格連續略有下降的兩個更大的市場是法國和義大利。從產業角度來看，這些確實是主要驅動力。我認為正如喬納斯所提到的，在法國等更廣泛的國家，我們看到燙髮業務有所回落。我不會說它是孤立於任何特定部門的。

I think it's more employer confidence and check out the election uncertainty being a bit of a dampener as well. So that's where I would say. I think that's the main drivers. I wouldn't necessarily call out any specific change from an industry perspective over the last quarter.

我認為這更多的是雇主的信心，選舉的不確定性也有點抑製作用。這就是我要說的。我認為這是主要的驅動因素。我不一定會從行業角度指出上個季度的任何具體變化。

Got it, thanks. Any intra-quarter trends around enterprise tech and financial staff and effective that you'd call out?

明白了，謝謝。您認為有關企業技術和財務人員的任何季度內趨勢和有效趨勢是什麼？

No, I think from a sector perspective, Princy, I think generally the trends that we've talked about last quarter, our to the most part are holding kind of in line with the trends in terms of stability overall, what that means in the scheme of things is auto continues to be more solid auto, although auto has been leveling off a bit, it is still holding up better than the rest of manufacturing.

不，我認為從行業角度來看，普林西，我認為總的來說，我們上季度討論的趨勢，我們的大部分內容與整體穩定性方面的趨勢保持一致，這意味著總體情況是，汽車仍然是更穩定的汽車，儘管汽車已經趨於平穩，但它仍然比其他製造業表現得更好。

I would say the manufacturing sector ex auto continues to be much more sluggish. And to your point, enterprise tech, although it has stabilized, it continues to be an area of very sluggish demand and running at stable levels, but lower levels, of course, overall.

我想說，汽車以外的製造業繼續低迷得多。就你而言，企業技術雖然已經穩定下來，但它仍然是一個需求非常低迷的領域，並且運行在穩定的水平上，但總體而言當然是較低的水平。

I think maybe that the last one to your point financial services, although financial services, what it was a bit of a strength from a sector perspective a year ago towards the end of 2023 and here in the first half of '24, we see we've seen financial services pull back a bit. So financial service has been trending a bit weaker. With that being said, I think as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, one area that has been a strength, this healthcare IT, but we certainly saw that in the US business in the first half of this year.

我認為也許最後一個問題是金融服務，儘管金融服務在一年前到 2023 年底以及在 2024 年上半年從行業角度來看是一種優勢，但我們看到我們金融服務業有所回落。因此，金融服務業一直呈現疲軟趨勢。話雖如此，我認為正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，醫療保健 IT 一直是一個優勢領域，但我們在今年上半年的美國業務中確實看到了這一點。

Maybe one other one would be Aerospace has been strong in Europe in France, particularly, but I'd say that's pretty much the roundup from a sector perspective.

也許另一個原因是航空航太業在歐洲尤其是法國表現強勁，但我想說，這幾乎是從產業角度來看的總結。

Appreciate the color.

欣賞顏色。

Josh Chan, UBS.

喬許陳，瑞銀。

Hi, good morning, Jonas and Jack. Thanks for taking my questions. I was just wondering if you could speak broadly about the trends over in Europe. I think kind of going into the quarter there were some concerns that maybe there will be some incremental softening in Europe in the second half.

嗨，早上好，喬納斯和傑克。感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想知道您是否可以廣泛地談論歐洲的趨勢。我認為進入本季時，有人擔心歐洲下半年可能會出現一些增量疲軟。

But it sounds like from your guidance in Q3, France, Italy, UK, it doesn't seem like you're seeing any incremental softening. So just kind of curious what you're seeing kind of on the ground in Europe? Thank you.

但從您在法國、義大利、英國第三季的指導來看，您似乎沒有看到任何增量疲軟。所以只是有點好奇你在歐洲看到了什麼？謝謝。

I think you've described it well, Josh, you have a couple, you have the France, which is slightly weaker, but you had Italy that did a little bit better. We always expected in Northern Europe to be the most challenging and that turned out to be true, especially in the Nordics.

我認為你描述得很好，喬什，你有幾個，你有法國，稍微弱一些，但你有義大利，做得更好一點。我們一直預期北歐是最具挑戰性的，事實證明這是真的，尤其是在北歐。

We saw some continued weakness. But stepping back from it all you are seeing Europe as stable in terms of our activity on at a lower level. And we've now seen a first renewal rate decline this morning of the ECB decided to hold the rates steady of the inflation rate in Europe, it's coming down. So underlying inflation rate is about 2.9% coming down.

我們看到一些持續的疲軟。但退一步看，你會發現歐洲的活動穩定在較低水準。今天早上，我們看到歐洲央行決定維持歐洲通膨率穩定，更新利率首次下降，正在下降。因此，基本通膨率約為 2.9% 下降。

The US is a 3.3%. So everything that we would expect to see happening in this economic cycle is sort of playing out. The economy is cooling. Labor markets are cooling though remain solid, and we are seeing it impact our markets in terms of the demand for temporary staffing and of course, a bigger impact on permanent.

美國為3.3%。因此，我們期望在這個經濟週期中發生的一切都會發生。經濟正在降溫。勞動市場正在降溫，但仍保持穩定，我們看到它對臨時員工的需求影響了我們的市場，當然，對永久員工的影響更大。

All of these dynamics that we would expect to see in an economic cycle. And frankly, it's playing out on the way we, as an industry has navigate these challenging times like this before.

我們期望在經濟週期中看到所有這些動態。坦白說，我們作為一個行業曾經經歷過這樣的充滿挑戰的時期，這就是我們的方式。

So although we don't see an inflection point at this time, we're hopeful that it's not a question of if, it's a question of when. The end of the inflection point occurs and our task is of course, to stay ready for the upturn and manage the current environment at the same time.

因此，儘管我們目前沒有看到拐點，但我們希望這不是是否出現的問題，而是何時出現的問題。轉捩點即將結束，我們的任務當然是為經濟好轉做好準備，同時管理當前的環境。

And we do that investing in sales resources to generate demand above them above and beyond what the market gives us managing our SG&A and really doubling down on the investments in transformation. So during this time, we've really we've increased our efforts on the digital transformation science business in the front office, back office. And we have making some excellent progress also from the client facing and candidate facing properties such as mobile and web.

我們對銷售資源進行投資，以產生高於市場的需求，從而超越市場給予我們的銷售資源管理，並真正加倍投資轉型。所以這段時間，我們確實加強了前台、後台數位轉型科學業務的力度。我們在面向客戶和候選人導向的屬性（例如行動和網路）方面也取得了一些出色的進展。

And that we think is going to be really good for us going forward because it really means we have a unique and global digitized technology infrastructure, which will help us implement, of course, innovation and GenAI, another aspect as well as driving common processes across our business globally.

我們認為這對我們的未來非常有好處，因為這確實意味著我們擁有獨特的全球數位化技術基礎設施，這將幫助我們實施創新和 GenAI，另一個方面以及推動跨領域的共同流程我們的業務遍布全球。

That's good color. Yeah thank you. Thank you for that, Jonas. And then maybe a margin question for Q3. I think normally the business has a seasonal margin uptick in going from Q2 to Q3, but that seems to be more muted this year. Just curious what are some of the offsets that's causing that stable margin has gone from Q2 to Q3? Thank you.

這顏色真好啊是的，謝謝。謝謝你，喬納斯。然後可能是第三季的保證金問題。我認為通常情況下，從第二季度到第三季度，該業務的利潤率會出現季節性上升，但今年這種情況似乎更加溫和。只是好奇導致穩定利潤率從第二季變為第三季的一些抵銷因素是什麼？謝謝。

Josh. I think you're right in normal environments, you generally we'll see this second half to be a bit of a better margin opportunity. I'd say last year that didn't happen last year, we went down in GP margin from Q2 to Q3. Of course, we were seeing declining trends as part of that.

喬許。我認為在正常環境下你是對的，通常我們會看到下半年是一個更好的利潤機會。我想說去年這種情況並沒有發生，我們的毛利率從第二季到第三季下降了。當然，我們也看到了下降趨勢的一部分。

And I think the big part of the equation was perm, right coming down. And I'd say it's similar this year. I think we're not coming down sequentially Q2 to Q3, we're holding at that 17.4.

我認為這個等式的很大一部分是燙髮，正確的下降。我想說今年的情況也類似。我認為我們不會從第二季到第三季連續下降，我們保持在 17.4。

So what that really means is we're seeing perm level off starting to stabilize into the mix kind of going back to the question we had earlier in terms of the expectations for the perm mix as total GP. So that's what's happening with GP margin.

因此，這實際上意味著我們看到燙髮水平開始穩定在混合中，這又回到了我們之前對燙髮組合作為總 GP 的預期的問題。這就是毛利率的情況。

So that 17.4 is the midpoint of our guide for our Q3 So I'd say stable overall, I would expect, as we start to see improving trends, you'll see perm start to pick up again. And that will give us some opportunities for increases in GP margin as the mix starts to move back.

因此，17.4 是我們第三季指南的中點，所以我想說整體穩定，我預計，當我們開始看到趨勢改善時，您會看到燙髮開始再次回升。隨著這種組合開始回落，這將為我們提供一些增加毛利率的機會。

And then, of course, as Experis and Talent Solutions start to get back to growth, you'll see them average in in the mix at larger percentages as well. And that will improve the GP margin when the recovery starts to take hold. So those are some positive dynamics in terms of the market overall.

當然，隨著 Experis 和 Talent Solutions 開始恢復成長，您會看到它們在混合中的平均比例也會更高。當經濟復甦開始時，這將提高毛利率。因此，就整個市場而言，這些是一些積極的動態。

But I'd say you know really what we're seeing Q2 and Q3 is really more stable underlying trends and that I think that means for the mix as well. And that's why you're seeing the GP margin hold fairly stable.

但我想說的是，你真的知道我們在第二季和第三季看到的基本趨勢確實更加穩定，我認為這對組合也意味著。這就是為什麼你會看到毛利率保持相當穩定。

Great. Thank you, Jack, and thank you both for your time.

偉大的。謝謝你，傑克，也謝謝你們兩位抽出寶貴的時間。

Thanks Jack.

謝謝傑克。

Trevor Romeo, William Blair.

特雷弗·羅密歐，威廉·布萊爾。

Hi, good morning, and thanks so much for taking the questions. First one, I just wanted to follow up on that on the US a bit. I think we talked about Experis, but on the Manpower brand in the US, it's a pretty nice improvement in the trend for revenue from that, I think down 13 last quarter to down to this quarter.

你好，早安，非常感謝你提出問題。第一個，我只是想跟進美國的情況。我認為我們討論了 Experis，但就美國的 Manpower 品牌而言，收入趨勢有了相當不錯的改善，我認為上個季度下降了 13 個，本季下降了 13 個。

So just curious if there was anything in particular you'd call out there, whether it's specific verticals or client groups that are performing a bit better for the seem like you're starting to see signs of a little bit of a broad improvement there?

因此，我想知道您是否有什麼特別要注意的地方，無論是特定的垂直行業還是客戶群體，它們的表現都更好了，因為您似乎開始看到那裡有一些廣泛改善的跡象？

Yes, Trevor, thanks for the question. I'd say the thing to keep in mind with the Manpower business, very similar to the Experis business was Q2 a year ago was the weakest point in terms of overall year over year decline.

是的，特雷弗，謝謝你的提問。我想說，與 Experis 業務非常相似的 Manpower 業務需要記住的一點是，一年前的第二季度是整體同比下降的最薄弱點。

So we're lapping that, and that's it part of the equation. We did go from minus 13 to minus 2. So I think we've seen some very good progress in the Manpower business in the US some again, but in line with what Jonas was talking about in terms of stable on an underlying basis. So that stable progress we've been making is walking into improved trends year over.

所以我們正在研磨它，這就是等式的一部分。我們確實從負 13 上升到了負 2。 所以我認為我們再次看到美國人力業務取得了一些非常好的進展，但與喬納斯所說的基本穩定一致。因此，我們一直在取得的穩定進展正逐步步入改善趨勢。

And with that being said, I think we feel really good about the prospects for the US Manpower business. There's been some very significant wins that are in the pipeline. I think in this environment, it's always a question of when those wins materialize, but we're working through that and so we're very encouraged by that. The U.S. business has been working very hard on their pipeline.

話雖如此，我認為我們對美國人力資源業務的前景感到非常樂觀。一些非常重要的勝利正在醞釀中。我認為在這種環境下，問題始終是這些勝利何時實現，但我們正在努力解決這個問題，因此我們對此感到非常鼓舞。美國企業一直在努力開發管道。

So I think we feel really good about the prospects. I think it's going to come down to employer behavior and when they start recommencing some of their programs before we start to see that manifest itself into a meaningful improved trend. I think in the meantime, we're expecting more stability in the underlying volumes into Q3.

所以我認為我們對前景感到非常樂觀。我認為這將取決於雇主的行為，以及當他們開始重新開始某些計劃時，我們才開始看到這體現為有意義的改善趨勢。我認為同時，我們預計第三季的基礎交易量將更加穩定。

Okay. Thanks, Jack, and that's helpful color. And then just quick follow-up on that Northern Europe, it seems like maybe the Netherlands and Belgium are continuing to hold up a bit better than some of the other countries in that region. Just curious if you could talk about what you're seeing there, whether it's kind of just a little bit better market environment and some of the other countries or something specific that Manpower is doing to execute well there?

好的。謝謝，傑克，這是有用的顏色。然後，對北歐進行快速跟進，荷蘭和比利時似乎繼續比該地區的其他一些國家表現得更好。只是好奇您是否可以談談您在那裡看到的情況，是否是稍微好一點的市場環境和其他一些國家，或者萬寶盛華正在做的一些具體事情，以便在那裡執行得很好？

Finally, the underlying situation remains that the markets remain very challenging, both the Netherlands and Belgium. My teams there are doing a good job. They're holding the line. They're performing a bit better than then market, which you know is a testament to the investments that we've made in sales and building some of that sales pipeline.

最後，潛在的情況仍然是荷蘭和比利時的市場仍然充滿挑戰。我的團隊做得很好。他們堅守陣線。他們的表現比當時的市場好一些，你知道這證明了我們在銷售和建立一些銷售管道所做的投資。

But the overall market is still challenged and, you know, they are still really trying to get back to a position of the year over year growth over time. So I would say the teams are doing well. We see stability and slight improvement in those markets, and we're projecting that stability of continue also into the third quarter. But the teams are doing a good job in those markets.

但整體市場仍面臨挑戰，而且你知道，他們仍在努力恢復到逐年成長的狀態。所以我想說，球隊做得很好。我們看到這些市場的穩定性和輕微改善，我們預計這種穩定性也會持續到第三季。但這些團隊在這些市場上做得很好。

Okay. Thank you both very much.

好的。非常感謝你們倆。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮·摩爾，杰弗里斯。

Hi, good morning. Thank you. I wanted to go back to some comments that were made kind of early in your prepared remarks, specifically talking about how your clients are prioritizing hiring for kind of the core skills they need. You made a point to kind of highlight to priority placed and retaining and attracting workers and specialized and flexible skills, particularly with the onset of AI and technology innovation?

嗨，早安。謝謝。我想回顧一下您在準備好的演講中早些時候發表的一些評論，特別是談論您的客戶如何優先考慮招募他們所需的核心技能。您強調要優先考慮並保留和吸引工人以及專業和靈活的技能，特別是隨著人工智慧和技術創新的出現？

And like so, I'm just trying to kind of maybe dig into those comments a little bit more. So are you from your conversations with employers, are they simply able to get by with less employees because of the skills that they hired the last few years and their own technology expectations?

就像這樣，我只是想進一步深入研究這些評論。那麼，從您與雇主的對話中，您是否可以看出，他們是否只是因為過去幾年僱用的技能和自己的技術期望而能夠減少員工數量？

I guess I'm just trying to rationalize this current environment and simply employer hesitancy because of the lack of confidence in the economy and what also could be just a structural hiring mindset change that we're seeing right now? So any color there would be great.

我想我只是試圖合理化當前的環境和雇主因對經濟缺乏信心而猶豫不決的態度，以及我們現在看到的結構性招募心態的變化是什麼？所以任何顏色都會很棒。

Sure. And so, Stephanie, I think what employers are prioritizing right now is retaining their existing workforce. They have a very painful memory in the US, a major workforce dislocation during the pandemic. A huge spike in unemployment and great difficulty finding talent with very strong wage inflation for the two years following the pandemic.

當然。因此，史蒂芬妮，我認為雇主現在優先考慮的是保留現有的勞動力。他們在美國有一段非常痛苦的記憶，大流行期間勞動力出現嚴重混亂。疫情爆發後的兩年裡，失業率大幅上升，而且薪資上漲非常劇烈，因此很難找到人才。

And so they hired a lot of people on paid a lot of money at high wages to bring those people in. And they've been through all of the changes that you've seen in the economy during the pandemic post pandemic spike of inflation. So their priority is to retain the workforce that they have the end develop that workforce.

因此，他們以高薪聘請了許多人。因此，他們的首要任務是留住他們擁有的勞動力，並最終發展這些勞動力。

Then they decide that they have seen on a buildup of inventories in many cases in advance or in response to the shortages you saw during COVID. So from a manufacturing perspective, and a PMI is below 50, both here in the US and in further below in Europe.

然後他們決定，他們在許多情況下已經提前看到了庫存的積累，或者是為了應對新冠肺炎期間看到的短缺。因此，從製造業的角度來看，PMI 低於 50，無論是在美國或歐洲都低於 50。

They're now working off that inventory they built up to be able to satisfy the significant orders that they had received during the pandemic and post pandemic. So they're working off those inventories they are servicing and the markets and their client markets with the staff that they have. Of course they are still, maintaining temporary staff as well as consultants from Manpower and Experis, just as we're seeing, they're just not increasing them to any noticeable degree, because they can manage in this current environment.

他們現在正在處理他們建立的庫存，以滿足他們在大流行期間和疫情後收到的大量訂單。因此，他們正在利用他們擁有的員工來處理他們正在服務的庫存以及市場和客戶市場。當然，他們仍然保留著來自 Manpower 和 Experis 的臨時員工以及顧問，正如我們所看到的，他們只是沒有將其增加到任何明顯的程度，因為他們可以在當前的環境中進行管理。

And although our economic growth in the US is still good, if you look at various sectors, you see that manufacturing has a tough time and many other industries have a tough time. The areas that are really generating growth are in governments, it's in healthcare to some degree, still hospitality because the consumers are still strong and purchasing experiences more than goods, although consumers are trading, trading down just as you would expect in a cooling economy.

儘管我們美國的經濟成長仍然不錯，但如果你看看各個行業，你會發現製造業處境艱難，許多其他行業也處境艱難。真正產生成長的領域是政府，在某種程度上是醫療保健領域，仍然是酒店業，因為消費者仍然強勁，購買體驗比商品更重要，儘管消費者正在交易，正如你在經濟降溫時所預期的那樣，他們會減少交易。

So I would not see this as a structural change in hiring. Frankly, when I look across the world, when I look at what other regions are doing, where the economic cycle is playing out to be it, you know, the continued good, good evolution in Latin America and in Asia Pacific

因此，我不認為這是招募方面的結構性變化。坦白說，當我環顧世界，當我看看其他地區正在做什麼，經濟週期正在哪裡發揮作用，你知道，拉丁美洲和亞太地區持續良好的發展

You know, we see hiring demand on temporary and on permanent just as we would expect we would in those kinds of economic environments. The economic downturn in Europe really started at the beginning of '22. Our industry has seen that inflection points play out just as we have seen in other cycles.

你知道，我們看到了臨時和永久的招募需求，正如我們在這種經濟環境下所預期的那樣。歐洲的經濟衰退真正開始於22年初。正如我們在其他週期中看到的那樣，我們的行業已經看到了拐點的出現。

Maybe with a bit of a lag on the perm side for a bit longer, but now we're seeing stability on the staffing side a little bit more pressure on perm. And frankly, we would expect the same traditional dynamics to play out also here in the US when we see a more stable environment, manufacturing returns, and overall employer confidence start to improve as well.

也許燙髮的延遲時間會更長一些，但現在我們看到人員配置的穩定性給燙髮帶來了更大的壓力。坦白說，當我們看到更穩定的環境、製造業回報和整體雇主信心也開始改善時，我們預期同樣的傳統動力也會在美國發揮作用。

Staffing starting to move before term and then perm follows after that as the payrolls are being added to on a permanent basis, whether it be in commercial staffing or in professional staffing. So we don't see this as a structural shift step. We really see this as the dynamics playing out as we would expect them to. The [anomalies] I think come from the fact as you look at our industry in the US in particular, that we had a long period of very good and strong growth.

人員在任期前開始流動，然後在任期結束後進行永久聘用，因為薪資會永久增加，無論是商業人員配置還是專業人員配置。因此，我們不認為這是一個結構性轉變步驟。我們確實認為這是如我們所期望的動態發展。我認為[異常]來自這樣一個事實，特別是當你看看我們在美國的行業時，我們經歷了很長一段時期的非常良好和強勁的增長。

And we as an industry saw a downturn almost you know 20 months ago without a recession and I think the last six months, we've seen the traditional dynamics play out, a cooling labor market, a cooling economic growth. You know as an industry we've seen some cooling and then stabilize.

作為一個行業，我們在 20 個月前經歷了一場低迷，幾乎沒有經濟衰退，我認為在過去的六個月裡，我們看到了傳統的動態，勞動力市場降溫，經濟成長降溫。你知道，作為一個行業，我們經歷了一些冷卻，然後趨於穩定。

So all of this for us indicates that this is traditional staffing industry dynamics playing out just in slow motion here in the US and we feel good about how we're positioned for when the economy and the underlying elements of the economy really start to stabilize and move in a positive direction for us.

因此，對我們來說，所有這一切都表明，這是傳統的人力資源行業動態在美國以慢動作上演，我們對當經濟和經濟的基本要素真正開始穩定和穩定時我們的定位感到滿意。著對我們正面的方向發展。

Got it. No, I think that actually that makes a lot of sense. It's very clear. I'm curious when you kind of have your conversations with a lot of these employers or your customers and they kind of just talk about everything that you just outlined, which is very clear. Did they give any indication of what level of maybe map underlying macro improvements that would require them to be a little bit more aggressive on their hiring?

知道了。不，我認為這實際上很有意義。非常清楚。我很好奇當你與許多這樣的雇主或你的客戶進行對話時，他們只是談論你剛才概述的所有內容，這非常清楚。他們是否表明了潛在的​​宏觀改進可能達到什麼水平，這需要他們在招募方面更加積極主動？

I think you know at this point to your you have, they did hire a quite a quite a good number of people. They had to pay a lot for those employees. They're trying to now those employees are becoming even more tenured in these positions. I'm just wondering in the eventual recovery, which I'm sure we'll see at some point, how strong of a recovery are we going to need to be for there to be kind of a material pickup and kind of demand? Again that makes sense.

我想你現在已經知道了，他們確實僱用了相當多的人。他們必須為這些員工付出很多。他們現在正在努力讓這些員工在這些職位上獲得更長的任期。我只是想知道，在最終的復甦中，我相信我們會在某個時候看到，我們需要多麼強烈的復甦才能出現某種材料的回升和某種需求？這又是有道理的。

Well, I think it's hard to say what kind of curve we would think about. But I would, I would say this, you know the inflection points can be many different things. We have geopolitical uncertainties, we have elections going on in various parts of the world. We have an expectation of interest rate declines here in the US.

嗯，我認為很難說我們會考慮什麼樣的曲線。但我想說的是，你知道拐點可以是很多不同的事情。我們有地緣政治的不確定性，世界各地都在進行選舉。我們預計美國利率會下降。

The ECB, as I mentioned earlier, has started, of course, the first, the first of rate decrease since 2019, that the expectations are that the Fed would do would do the same. So it could be one or one or the other of all of these things put together that really start to kick-started.

正如我之前提到的，歐洲央行當然已經開始了自 2019 年以來的第一次降息，預計聯準會也會採取同樣的行動。因此，可能是所有這些事情中的一個或一個或另一個放在一起才真正開始啟動。

And I would say from the manufacturing perspective, many of the clients that we've spoken to are working off inventory, excess inventory that they accumulated in response to this lots of orders that came out during and after the pandemic and many of the clients that we talk to say that, no, this is this is something that we expect it's largely have worked through over the course of 2024.

我想說，從製造業的角度來看，我們採訪過的許多客戶正在處理庫存，他們為應對大流行期間和之後出現的大量訂單而積累了多餘的庫存，而且許多客戶我們想說的是，不，這是我們預計在2024 年基本上已經解決的事情。

And with the external macro indicators that I mentioned, and that in combination makes us believe that we'll see some improvements, but the slope of that improvement is very hard to predict. I think it will very much depend on the industry that you're in and what each in each of those industries are seeing in terms of opportunities.

結合我提到的外部宏觀指標，我們相信我們會看到一些改善，但這種改善的斜率很難預測。我認為這在很大程度上取決於您所在的行業以及每個行業所看到的機會。

Great. Thank you so much.

偉大的。太感謝了。

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

安德魯‧史坦納曼，摩根大通。

Hi, good morning. This is Stephanie stepping in for Andrew. I have a similar question kind of to the last question, but we have seen this disconnect between US temporary help being down and GDP and non-farm payroll being up in the US. It sounds like, correct me if I'm wrong, that may be the biggest driver in your opinion is full time labor hoarding.

嗨，早安。這是史蒂芬妮代替安德魯。我有一個與上一個問題類似的問題，但我們已經看到美國臨時援助的下降與美國國內生產總值和非農就業人數的上升之間存在脫節。聽起來，如果我錯了，請糾正我，在你看來，最大的驅動因素可能是全職勞動力囤積。

Do you think that fully reverses when things improve? And also are you seeing that same hoarding dynamic in France?

您認為當情況好轉時，情況會完全逆轉嗎？您在法國也看到了同樣的囤積行為嗎？

Thanks for the question, Stephanie. No as then, as I just explained, we don't think this is a structural shift in hiring dynamics. We think this is an effect of pandemic anomalies that we really expect to know see normalizing and frankly over the last six months. We've really seen what we would characterize as in normalization of the trends that we would expect of course does not explain the preceding 14 months.

謝謝你的提問，史蒂芬妮。不，正如我剛才解釋的那樣，我們認為這並不是招募動態的結構性轉變。我們認為這是大流行異常的影響，坦白說，我們確實希望在過去六個月中看到這種異常現象的正常化。我們確實看到了我們所期望的趨勢正常化的特徵，當然這並不能解釋之前的 14 個月。

But frankly, I think your comment on labor hoarding, or the fatigue that employers have in terms of having had to hire so many people under such difficult circumstances post pandemic really makes them hesitate when it comes to any major shifts in their current workforce.

但坦白說，我認為你對勞動力囤積的評論，或者雇主在大流行後如此困難的情況下不得不僱用這麼多人所感到的疲勞，確實讓他們在涉及當前勞動力的任何重大轉變時猶豫不決。

And as they lookout the likelihood of a deeper recession appears to be becoming less likely even a lighter recession maybe is less likely and a soft landing is likely would give them even more reason to say, look, whatever softness we're seeing right now, we'll just tough it out and we will be very careful with our overall expense reduce SG&A, not replace levers to the degree that we would have not start projects as aggressively as maybe we would like to do during the transformation and live what we have for now.

當他們看到更嚴重的衰退的可能性似乎變得越來越小，甚至更輕微的衰退的可能性也更小，軟著陸可能會讓他們更有理由說，看，無論我們現在看到什麼疲軟的情況，我們會堅持下去，我們會非常小心地減少總體開支，減少SG&A，而不是更換槓桿，以免我們在轉型期間不會像我們希望的那樣積極地啟動項目並過上我們所擁有的生活目前。

But all that being said, we expect the traditional industry dynamics to kick back in once they feel that the environment, their environment improves, but they're confident it's going to be sustainable and that's I think when we as an industry and also of course from our perspective from Manpower Experis and Talent Solutions, could see some of that.

但話雖如此，我們預計，一旦他們感覺到環境、他們的環境有所改善，傳統行業的動力就會恢復，但他們相信這將是可持續的，我認為當我們作為一個行業，當然也從我們的Manpower Experis 和Talent Solutions 的角度來看，可以看到其中的一些。

We've seen that stabilization that we've been hoping for over the second quarter. We're projecting the same into the third and we are making sure we are ready for when the inflection point comes so that we can take advantage of it and really get going on some improved profitable revenue growth.

我們已經看到了我們一直希望在第二季度實現的穩定。我們對第三個季度進行了同樣的預測，並確保我們為拐點到來做好了準備，以便我們可以利用它並真正實現獲利收入成長。

Okay, very clear. Thank you.

好的，非常清楚。謝謝。

Thank you. And that brings us to the close of our second quarter earnings call. Thanks again for all of your interest and questions. We look forward to speaking with you again in our Q3 earnings call in a number of months from now.

謝謝。我們的第二季財報電話會議即將結束。再次感謝您的所有興趣和問題。我們期待在幾個月後的第三季財報電話會議上再次與您交談。

Until then, enjoy the rest of the summer. Keep watching Milwaukee shine in all of the various media coverage that I'm sure you're seeing and we look forward to speaking with you again soon. Thanks everyone.

在那之前，享受剩下的夏天吧。繼續關注密爾瓦基在各種媒體報道中的光芒，我相信您已經看到了，我們期待很快再次與您交談。謝謝大家。

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone have a great day.

感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。每個人都度過了美好的一天。