ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Manpower Group's first quarter earnings results conference call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加萬寶盛華集團第一季獲利業績電話會議。（操作員指示）此通話正在錄音。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the call over to Manpower Group's Chair and CEO Mr. Jonas Prising. Sir, you may begin.

現在，我想將電話轉給萬寶盛華集團董事長兼執行長喬納斯·普里辛先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Welcome. Thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2025 conference call. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jack McGinnis is with me today. For your convenience, we've included our prepared remarks within the investor relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com.

歡迎。感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第一季電話會議。我們的財務長傑克麥金尼斯今天和我在一起。為了您的方便，我們在網站 manpowergroup.com 的投資者關係部分包含了我們準備好的評論。

I will start by going through some of the highlights of the quarter, and jack will go through the first quarter results and guidance for the second quarter of 2025. I will then share some concluding thoughts before we start our Q&A session. Jack will now cover the safe harbor language.

我將首先介紹本季的一些亮點，傑克將介紹第一季的業績以及 2025 年第二季的指引。在我們開始問答環節之前，我將分享一些總結性的想法。傑克現在將介紹安全港語言。

Good morning, everyone. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, including statements concerning economic and geopolitical uncertainty, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

大家早安。本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關經濟和地緣政治不確定性的陳述，這些陳述受已知和未知風險和不確定性的影響。

These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

這些聲明是基於管理層當前的期望或信念。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果有重大差異。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Slide 2 of our earnings release presentation further identifies forward-looking statements made in this call and factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially and information regarding reconciliation of non-GAAP measures.

我們的收益發布簡報的第二張投影片進一步指出了本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述以及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素以及有關非公認會計準則指標調節的資訊。

Thank you, Jack. This quarter, I spent time with many of our clients and leadership teams across our key markets in Europe, Latin America and Asia Pacific as well as here in North America. Broadly, the consensus is the quarter has been of two halves. We began the year with a sense of optimism for economic growth in the US particularly and a greater acknowledgment among EU policy makers that Europe needed to do more to remain competitive.

謝謝你，傑克。本季度，我與我們在歐洲、拉丁美洲、亞太地區以及北美等主要市場的許多客戶和領導團隊進行了會面。整體而言，大家一致認為本季可分為兩個部分。新年伊始，我們對美國的經濟成長充滿樂觀，歐盟政策制定者也更意識到歐洲需要付出更多努力才能保持競爭力。

The last several weeks have impacted the sense of confidence, and the mood is significantly more uncertain and cautious as a result of recent trade policy announcements in the US with ripple effects far beyond. At this stage, most of our clients are adopting a wait and see approach, and it is difficult to provide any concrete assessment of how significantly this might affect demand from our customers in our major markets around the world.

過去幾週，人們的信心受到了影響，由於美國最近宣布的貿易政策，人們的情緒變得更加不確定和謹慎，其連鎖反應也更為深遠。目前，我們的大多數客戶都採取觀望態度，很難具體評估這將對我們全球主要市場客戶的需求產生多大影響。

As always, we're staying very close to our clients during this time and taking an industry and country-specific view as announced tariffs impact in different ways. We remain agile and are monitoring demand changes closely.

與往常一樣，在此期間，我們與客戶保持密切聯繫，並根據不同行業和國家的具體情況，採取不同的觀點，以應對已宣布的關稅影響。我們保持敏捷並密切監視需求變化。

At the same time, the benefits of a flexible workforce are highly visible during periods of increased uncertainty, and we know that those closest to their clients will win opportunities to deliver more flexible workforce solutions in the time of need.

同時，在充滿不確定性的時期，靈活勞動力的好處顯而易見，我們知道，那些最接近客戶的人將有機會在需要的時候提供更靈活的勞動力解決方案。

Our message to our organization and leadership teams in our 75-plus countries and territories around the world is clear, control, which you can control, stay close to our clients and candidates and build agility so we can act quickly to anticipate and respond to evolving client needs. There remain plenty of opportunities to win in the market and provide value to those we serve, and we are determined to be the partner of choice during unsettled times.

我們向遍布全球 75 多個國家和地區的組織和領導團隊傳達的訊息很明確：控制，這是您可以控制的，與我們的客戶和候選人保持密切聯繫，並建立敏捷性，以便我們能夠迅速採取行動，預測和回應不斷變化的客戶需求。市場上仍有許多機會可以取勝並為我們服務的對象提供價值，我們決心在動盪時期成為首選合作夥伴。

Now to our results. In the first quarter, revenue was $4.1 billion, down 5% year over year in constant currency. Our reported EBITA for the quarter was $36 million. Adjusting for restructuring costs, EBITA was $52 million, representing a decrease of 32% in constant currency year over year. Reported EBITA margin was 0.9% and adjusted EBITDA margin was 1.3%. Earnings per diluted share was $0.12 on a reported basis, while earnings per diluted share was $0.44 on an adjusted basis. Adjusted earnings per share decreased 51% year over year in constant currency.

現在來看看我們的結果。第一季度，營收為41億美元，以固定匯率計算年減5%。我們報告的本季 EBITA 為 3600 萬美元。經重組成本調整後，EBITA 為 5,200 萬美元，以固定匯率計算年減 32%。報告的 EBITA 利潤率為 0.9%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 1.3%。以報告基礎計算，每股攤薄收益為 0.12 美元，以調整基礎計算，每股攤薄收益為 0.44 美元。以固定匯率計算，調整後每股盈餘較去年同期下降 51%。

In the first quarter, we saw a continuation of a challenging environment in Europe and North America, while demand for our services in LATAM and APME remain good. Staffing margin was solid, reflecting business mix changes and ongoing disciplined pricing. However, permanent recruitment softened further, and we saw reduced outplacement volumes, which impacted our margins.

第一季度，我們看到歐洲和北美市場持續面臨挑戰，而拉丁美洲和亞太及中東地區對我們服務的需求仍然良好。員工利潤率穩健，反映了業務組合的變化和持續嚴格的定價。然而，永久性招聘進一步疲軟，我們發現再就業安置量減少，這影響了我們的利潤率。

We took further cost actions to mitigate these trends, and we will continue to adjust as needed as the environment evolves. But we have seen a period of volatility relating to the tariff announcements and uncertainty is elevated right now, underlying economic indicators, including labor markets continue to be relatively stable.

我們採取了進一步的成本措施來緩解這些趨勢，並且我們將根據環境的變化繼續進行必要的調整。但我們看到與關稅公告相關的波動期已經過去，不確定性目前有所增加，而包括勞動市場在內的基礎經濟指標則持續保持相對穩定。

Based on what we see today, we expect employers to continue to cautiously look at hiring select talent particularly though with in-demand skills that enable their businesses to transform. Indeed, as AI accelerates, we expect to see a greater focus on skills development as organizations seek to guide their workforce to a period of transition and prepare them to work alongside AI.

根據我們今天看到的情況，我們預計雇主將繼續謹慎考慮聘用精選人才，特別是那些擁有能夠使其企業轉型的熱門技能的人才。事實上，隨著人工智慧的加速發展，我們預期企業將更加重視技能發展，因為企業正在努力引導員工進入過渡期，並為他們做好與人工智慧一起工作的準備。

This is supported by our most recent Experis CIO report, which found that more than half of the companies are planning on upskilling existing talent with AI skills and 1 in 3 are hiring people with the ability to collaborate across functions to solve business challenges.

我們最新的 Experis CIO 報告證實了這一點，該報告發現，超過一半的公司計劃提升現有人才的人工智慧技能，三分之一的公司正在招聘具有跨職能協作能力的人才來解決業務挑戰。

Thanks, Jonas. US dollar reported revenues in the first quarter were impacted by foreign currency translation and after adjusting for currency impacts, came in above the high end of our constant currency guidance range.

謝謝，喬納斯。第一季以美元報告的收入受到外幣折算的影響，在調整貨幣影響後，收入超過了我們恆定貨幣指導範圍的高端。

Although conditions remain challenging, our revenue trends demonstrate we continue to perform well in the market. Following various recent sale and franchise arrangements, our revenues from franchise offices are significant and are included within system-wide revenues, which equaled $4.5 billion for the quarter.

儘管情況依然嚴峻，但我們的收入趨勢表明我們在市場上的表現仍然良好。根據最近的各種銷售和特許經營安排，我們從特許經營辦公室獲得的收入非常可觀，並包含在全系統收入中，本季全系統收入為 45 億美元。

Additional information on franchise offices can be found in our press release financials. Gross profit margin came in just below the low end of our guidance range, driven by weaker permanent recruitment. As adjusted, EBITA was $52 million, representing a 32% decrease in constant currency compared to the prior year period. As adjusted, EBITA margin was 1.3% and came in just below the low end of our guidance range, representing 50 basis points of decline year over year.

有關特許經營辦事處的更多信息，請參閱我們的新聞稿財務資訊。由於長期招聘力度減弱，毛利率略低於我們預期範圍的低端。經調整後，EBITA 為 5,200 萬美元，以固定匯率計算，與去年同期相比下降了 32%。調整後，EBITA 利潤率為 1.3%，略低於我們指導範圍的低端，較去年同期下降 50 個基點。

Foreign currency translation drove a 2.5% unfavorable impact to the US dollar reported revenue trend from the constant currency decrease of 4.5%. Organic days adjusted constant currency revenue decreased 1% in the quarter, which was favorable to our guidance.

外幣折算對美元報告收入趨勢產生了 2.5% 的不利影響，而以固定匯率計算則下降了 4.5%。本季有機天數調整後固定匯率營收下降了 1%，符合我們的預期。

Turning to the EPS bridge. Reported net earnings per share was $0.12. Adjusted EPS was $0.44 and came in $0.03 below our guidance range. Walking from our guidance midpoint of $0.52, our results included a lower operational performance of $0.09, a foreign currency impact that was $0.04 favorable to our guide and interest and other expenses, which was $0.03 unfavorable.

轉向 EPS 橋。每股淨收益為0.12美元。調整後每股收益為0.44美元，比我們的預期區間低0.03美元。從我們的指導中點 0.52 美元來看，我們的結果包括較低的營運績效 0.09 美元，外幣影響對我們的指導有利 0.04 美元，利息和其他費用不利 0.03 美元。

Higher tax charges from a France law change imposed for a one year period for 2025 and updated country earnings mix for the current environment represented $0.06 and restructuring costs represented $0.26, resulting in the reported EPS of $0.12.

由於法國法律變更，2025 年實施的為期一年的稅收增加，以及當前環境下更新的國家收益組合為 0.06 美元，重組成本為 0.26 美元，導致報告每股收益為 0.12 美元。

Next, let's review our revenue by business line. Year over year, on an organic constant currency basis, the Manpower brand declined 2% in the quarter. The Experis brand declined by 5%, and the Talent Solutions brand declined by 2%.

接下來我們來回顧一下我們各業務線的收入。與去年同期相比，以有機固定匯率計算，Manpower 品牌本季下降了 2%。Experis品牌下降了5%，Talent Solutions品牌下降了2%。

Within Talent Solutions, our RPO business experienced a slight year over year revenue decrease. Our MSP business recorded a strong double-digit revenue increase compared to the prior year. While Right Management experienced a year over year revenue decline in the quarter as outplacement activity continued to slow.

在人才解決方案領域，我們的 RPO 業務收入較去年同期略有下降。與前一年相比，我們的 MSP 業務收入實現了強勁的兩位數成長。由於職業介紹活動持續放緩，Right Management 本季營收年減。

Looking at our gross profit margin in detail, our gross margin came in at 17.1% for the quarter. Staffing margin contributed 10 basis point reduction due to mix shifts and lower bench utilization in select countries, while pricing remained stable.

詳細看一下我們的毛利率，本季我們的毛利率為17.1％。由於混合輪班和部分國家的工作台利用率較低，員工利潤率下降了 10 個基點，但價格保持穩定。

Permanent recruitment was weaker than expected and contributed a 10 basis point GP margin reduction as permanent hiring activity in the first quarter decreased year over year. Right Management career transition within Talent Solutions contributed 10 basis point reduction as outplacement activity decreased in the quarter. Other items resulted in a 10 basis point margin decrease.

永久性招聘弱於預期，並導致第一季永久性招聘活動年減，導致毛利率下降 10 個基點。由於本季再就業活動的減少，Right Management 人才解決方案部門的職業轉型貢獻了 10 個基點的減少。其他項目導致利潤率下降10個基點。

Moving on to our gross profit by business line. During the quarter, the Manpower brand comprised 59% of gross profit. Our Experis professional business comprised 24% and Talent Solutions comprised 17%. During the quarter, our consolidated gross profit decreased by 6% on an organic constant currency basis year over year, representing a sequential step down from the 4% decline in the fourth quarter.

接下來按業務線劃分我們的毛利。本季度，Manpower 品牌貢獻了 59% 的毛利。我們的 Experis 專業業務佔 24%，人才解決方案佔 17%。本季度，我們的綜合毛利潤以有機固定匯率計算年減 6%，較第四季 4% 的降幅有所下降。

Our Manpower brand reported an organic gross profit decrease of 2% in constant currency year over year, a slight improvement from the 3% decrease in the fourth quarter. Gross profit in our Experis brand decreased 11% in organic constant currency year over year flat from the 11% decrease in the fourth quarter.

我們的 Manpower 品牌報告稱，以固定匯率計算，有機毛利潤年減 2%，較第四季 3% 的降幅略有改善。我們 Experis 品牌的毛利以有機固定匯率計算年減 11%，與第四季的 11% 降幅持平。

Gross profit in Talent Solutions decreased 5% in organic constant currency year over year, representing a step down from the fourth quarter increase of 7%.

人才解決方案部門的毛利以有機固定匯率計算年減 5%，較第四季 7% 的增幅有所下降。

MSP saw continued year over year gross profit growth in the first quarter, while RPO and Right Management gross profit declined due to the end of select client projects and lower outplacement volumes.

MSP 第一季毛利持續較去年同期成長，而 RPO 和 Right Management 毛利則因部分客戶專案結束和新職介紹數量減少而下降。

Reported SG&A expense in the quarter was $670 million. SG&A, as adjusted, was down 4% year over year on a constant currency basis and down 3% on an organic constant currency basis. The year over year SG&A decreases largely consisted of reductions in operational costs of $18 million. Corporate costs continue to include our back-office transformation spend, and these programs are progressing well with expected medium and long-term efficiencies.

本季度報告的銷售、一般及行政費用為 6.7 億美元。銷售、一般及行政費用，經調整後，以固定匯率計算年減 4%，以有機固定匯率計算下降 3%。與去年同期相比，銷售、一般及行政費用的下降主要包括 1,800 萬美元的營運成本減少。企業成本持續包括我們的後台轉型支出，這些項目進展順利，預計中長期效率將提高。

Dispositions represented a decrease of $8 million and currency changes contributed to a $15 million decrease. Adjusted SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue represented 15.9% in constant currency in the first quarter. Adjustments represented restructuring costs of $16 million.

處置金額減少了 800 萬美元，貨幣變化導致減少了 1500 萬美元。第一季度，調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔收入的百分比（以固定匯率計算）為 15.9%。調整後重組成本為 1600 萬美元。

The Americas segment comprised 25% of consolidated revenue. Revenue in the quarter was $1.1 billion, representing an increase of 5% year over year on a constant currency basis. OUP was $25 million, and OUP margin was 2.4%.

美洲分部佔合併收入的25%。本季營收為 11 億美元，以固定匯率計算年增 5%。OUP 的利潤為 2500 萬美元，OUP 的利潤率為 2.4%。

The US is the largest country in the Americas segment, comprising 65% of segment revenues. Revenue in the US was $689 million during the quarter, representing a 2% days adjusted increase compared to the prior year.

美國是美洲分部最大的國家，佔該分部收入的 65%。本季美國營收為 6.89 億美元，較上年同期調整後成長 2%。

This represents an improvement from the 1% decline in the fourth quarter as Manpower and Talent Solutions had revenue growth, while the rate of decline improved in Experis. OUP for our US business was $11 million in the quarter. OUP margin was 1.6%. Within the US, the Manpower brand comprised 25% of gross profit during the quarter.

這比第四季 1% 的降幅有所改善，因為 Manpower 和 Talent Solutions 的收入有所增長，而 Experis 的降幅也有所改善。本季度，我們美國業務的 OUP 收入為 1,100 萬美元。OUP利潤率為1.6%。在美國，Manpower 品牌在本季度貢獻了 25% 的毛利。

Revenue for the Manpower brand in the US increased 7% on a days adjusted basis during the quarter, which represented strong market performance and an improvement from the 2% increase in the fourth quarter. The Experis brand in the US comprised 42% of gross profit in the quarter. Within Experis in the US, IT skills comprised approximately 90% of revenues.

本季度，美國 Manpower 品牌的營收按天數調整後成長了 7%，這代表著強勁的市場表現，並且比第四季 2% 的增幅有所提高。美國 Experis 品牌佔本季毛利的 42%。在美國的 Experis 公司中，IT 技能約佔營收的 90%。

Experis US revenue decreased 2% on a days adjusted basis during the quarter, an improvement from the 6% decline in the fourth quarter. The improvement in the first quarter was driven by seasonal health care IT go-live projects and the remaining business was relatively stable from the previous quarter.

Experis 美國公司本季的營收以天數調整後計算下降了 2%，較第四季 6% 的降幅有所改善。第一季的改善是由季節性醫療保健 IT 上線專案推動的，其餘業務與上一季相比相對穩定。

Talent Solutions in the US contributed 33% of gross profit and saw a revenue increase of 3% in the quarter, a decrease from the 16% increase in the fourth quarter, driven by RPO and Right Management.

美國人才解決方案部門貢獻了33%的毛利，本季營收成長3%，較第四季的16%的增幅有所下降，這主要得益於RPO和睿仕管理的推動。

RPO experienced a modest revenue increase in the US during the quarter following the completion of higher-volume seasonal projects in the previous quarter. The US MSP business executed well during the quarter, posting strong double-digit revenue increases, while outpacing activity within our Right Management business was down year over year as our placement activity slowed.

繼上一季完成大量季節性專案之後，本季 RPO 在美國的營收略有成長。本季度，美國 MSP 業務表現良好，營收實現強勁的兩位數成長，而我們的 Right Management 業務內部活動則因安置活動放緩而同比下降。

In the second quarter of 2025, we do not anticipate the seasonal Experis health care IT projects to be significant, and we expect the overall US business to have a low single-digit year over year revenue decline. Southern Europe revenue comprised 45% of consolidated revenue in the quarter.

在 2025 年第二季度，我們預計季節性的 Experis 醫療 IT 專案不會具有重大意義，並且我們預計整體美國業務的收入同比下降幅度將保持在個位數以下。南歐收入佔本季合併收入的 45%。

Revenue in Southern Europe was $1.8 billion, representing a 5% decrease in constant currency. As adjusted, OUP for our Southern Europe business was $54 million in the quarter, and OUP margin was 2.9%. Restructuring charges of $3 million primarily represented actions in Spain and Portugal.

南歐地區收入為 18 億美元，以固定匯率計算下降了 5%。經調整後，本季我們南歐業務的 OUP 為 5,400 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 2.9%。300 萬美元的重組費用主要來自西班牙和葡萄牙的行動。

France revenue comprised 53% of Southern Europe segment in the quarter and decreased 8% on a days adjusted constant currency basis. France has historically managed our Morocco business as a small component of their overall business.

本季度，法國營收佔南歐分部營收的 53%，以調整後固定匯率計算下降了 8%。法國歷來將我們的摩洛哥業務作為其整體業務的一小部分來管理。

In line with regional management changes, beginning with this 2025 reporting cycle, we have reclassified Morocco to other Southern Europe and have restated prior periods to reflect like-for-like year over year variances. That said, we saw an improvement in the rate of revenue decline in France from January to March. In March, the largest month revenue decreased 7.5%.

根據區域管理的變化，從 2025 年報告週期開始，我們將摩洛哥重新歸類為其他南歐國家，並重述了前期數據，以反映同比差異。話雖如此，我們看到法國1月至3月的收入下降率有所改善。3月份，收入下降幅度最大的月份，下降了7.5%。

As adjusted, OUP for our France business was $21 million in the quarter. Adjusted OUP margin was 2.2%. Activity to date in April is similar to the month of March, and we are estimating the second quarter trend to be similar to the month of March trend.

經過調整後，本季我們法國業務的牛津大學出版社收入為 2,100 萬美元。調整後的 OUP 利潤率為 2.2%。四月份迄今為止的活動與三月相似，我們估計第二季的趨勢與三月的趨勢相似。

Revenue in Italy equaled $398 million in the first quarter, reflecting an increase of 5% on a days adjusted constant currency basis. OUP equaled $25 million and OUP margin was 6.2%. We estimate that Italy will have a similar constant currency revenue trend in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

第一季義大利的營收達到 3.98 億美元，以調整後固定匯率計算成長 5%。OUP 相當於 2,500 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 6.2%。我們估計，義大利第二季的固定貨幣收入趨勢將與第一季類似。

Our Northern Europe segment comprised 18% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue of $731 million represented a 14% decline in constant currency. As adjusted, OUP equaled a $6 million loss. The majority of the restructuring charges of $12 million was recorded in the Nordics, Belgium and the UK.

我們北歐部門佔本季合併收入的 18%。7.31億美元的營收以固定匯率計算下降了14%。經過調整後，OUP 的損失相當於 600 萬美元。1,200 萬美元的重組費用大部分發生在北歐、比利時和英國。

Our largest market in the Northern Europe segment is the UK, which represented 35% of segment revenues in the quarter. During the quarter, UK revenues decreased 16% on a days adjusted constant currency basis. The UK market continues to be very challenging, and we expect the rate of revenue decline to be similar in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

我們在北歐地區最大的市場是英國，佔本季地區營收的 35%。本季度，英國營收按調整後固定匯率計算下降了 16%。英國市場仍然充滿挑戰，我們預計第二季的營收下降率將與第一季相似。

In Germany, revenues decreased 26% on a days adjusted constant currency basis in the quarter. Germany manufacturing trends have been weak driving further declines. In the second quarter, we are expecting a similar to slightly improved year over year revenue decline compared with the first quarter trend.

在德國，本季營收按調整後固定匯率計算下降了 26%。德國製造業趨勢疲軟，導致進一步下滑。我們預計第二季的營收年減幅度與第一季的趨勢相比將略有改善。

The Nordics continued to experience very difficult market conditions with revenues decreasing 16% in days adjusted constant currency in the quarter. Within the Nordics, Sweden is experiencing the largest declines based on a weak manufacturing environment and the adjustment to new temporary work term limits discussed in previous quarters.

北歐地區持續經歷非常艱難的市場環境，本季營收按調整後固定匯率計算下降了 16%。在北歐國家中，瑞典的降幅最大，原因是製造業環境疲軟，以及前幾季討論的新的臨時工作期限限制的調整。

The Asia Pacific Middle East segment comprises 12% of total company revenue. In the quarter, revenues equaled $476 million, representing an increase of 7% in organic constant currency. OUP was $20 million and OUP margin was 4.2%. Our largest market in the APME segment is Japan, which represented 60% of segment revenues in the quarter.

亞太中東地區占公司總收入的 12%。本季度，營收達到 4.76 億美元，以有機固定匯率計算成長 7%。OUP 為 2000 萬美元，OUP 利潤率為 4.2%。我們在 APME 部門的最大市場是日本，佔本季部門營收的 60%。

Revenue in Japan grew 9% on a days adjusted constant currency basis. We remain very pleased with the consistent performance of our Japan business, and we expect continued strong revenue growth in the second quarter.

日本的營收以調整後固定匯率計算成長了 9%。我們對日本業務的持續表現感到非常滿意，我們預計第二季的營收將繼續強勁成長。

I'll now turn to cash flow and balance sheet. In the first quarter, free cash flow represented an outflow of $167 million compared to an inflow of $104 million in the prior year. Timing of payables impacted the level of outflow in the first quarter. Outflow of free cash flow in the first half of the year typically follows strong free cash flow in the second half.

現在我將討論現金流和資產負債表。第一季度，自由現金流流出 1.67 億美元，去年同期自由現金流流入 1.04 億美元。應付款項的時間影響了第一季的流出水準。上半年自由現金流的流出通常伴隨著下半年強勁的自由現金流。

At quarter end, days sales outstanding decreased by about 0.5 day to 54 days. During the first quarter, capital expenditures represented $14 million. During the first quarter, we repurchased 433,000 shares of stock for $25 million. As of March 31, we have 2.2 million shares remaining for repurchase under the share program approved in August of 2023.

截至季末，應收帳款週轉天數減少約 0.5 天至 54 天。第一季度，資本支出為 1400 萬美元。第一季度，我們以 2,500 萬美元回購了 433,000 股股票。截至 3 月 31 日，根據 2023 年 8 月批准的股票計劃，我們仍有 220 萬股股票可供回購。

Our balance sheet ended the quarter with cash of $395 million and total debt of $1.07 billion. Net debt equaled $677 million at quarter end. Our debt ratios at year-end reflect total gross debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA of [$2.5 billion] and total debt to total capitalization at 34%. Our debt and credit facility arrangements are displayed in the appendix of the presentation.

本季末，我們的資產負債表顯示現金為 3.95 億美元，總負債為 10.7 億美元。季末淨債務為 6.77 億美元。我們年末的負債比率反映出總債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 比率為 [25 億美元]，總債務與總資本比率為 34%。我們的債務和信貸安排顯示在簡報的附錄中。

Next, I'll review our outlook for the second quarter of 2025. Based on trends in the first quarter and April activity to date, our forecast is cautious and anticipate that second quarter will continue to be challenging in Europe and North America.

接下來，我將回顧我們對 2025 年第二季的展望。根據第一季和四月迄今的活動趨勢，我們的預測是謹慎的，並預計第二季歐洲和北美將繼續面臨挑戰。

It is important to note that our forecast reflects demand trends we are currently experiencing. If tariff policy-related matters have an additional significant dampening effect on demand for our services globally, this is not included in our guidance.

值得注意的是，我們的預測反映了我們目前正在經歷的需求趨勢。如果關稅政策相關事項對我們全球服務的需求產生額外的重大抑製作用，則這不包括在我們的指導中。

With that said, we are forecasting earnings per share for the second quarter to be in the range of $0.65 to $0.75. As I mentioned earlier, the increased French income tax for the one year period of 2025 and the updated country mix effects have increased our global effective tax rate, which will have the impact of decreasing our second quarter EPS estimate by $0.14 from the beginning of the year tax rate guidance. The guidance range also includes a favorable foreign currency impact of $0.03 per share, and our foreign currency translation rate estimates are disclosed at the bottom of the guidance slide.

話雖如此，我們預測第二季每股收益將在0.65美元至0.75美元之間。正如我之前提到的，2025年一年期法國所得稅的增加以及更新的國家組合效應提高了我們的全球有效稅率，這將導致我們第二季度每股收益預測較年初的稅率指引下調0.14美元。指導範圍還包括每股 0.03 美元的有利外幣影響，我們的外幣折算率估計值披露在指導幻燈片的底部。

Our constant currency revenue guidance range is between a decrease of 3% and 7%, and at the midpoint is a 5% decrease. Considering the impact of our dispositions and a slightly lower number of working days, our organic days adjusted constant currency revenue decrease represents 2% at the midpoint.

我們的恆定貨幣收入指導範圍是下降 3% 至 7%，中間值為下降 5%。考慮到我們的處置和略低的工作日數的影響，我們的有機天數調整後的固定貨幣收入減少額在中間值上為 2%。

EBITA margin for the second quarter is projected to be down 60 basis points at the midpoint compared to the prior year. We estimate that the effective tax rate for the second quarter will be 46.5%, which represents the previously mentioned French tax charge for the one year period of 2025 and the overall mix effect of lower earnings from lower tax geographies in the current environment, including the impact of valuation allowances in certain markets, which will reverse in the future when those markets rebound.

預計第二季的 EBITA 利潤率將比去年同期下降 60 個基點。我們估計第二季的有效稅率為 46.5%，這代表了前面提到的 2025 年一年期間的法國稅收費用，以及當前環境下低稅率地區收益較低的整體組合效應，包括某些市場的估值準備金的影響，未來當這些市場反彈時，這種影響將逆轉。

In addition, as usual, our guidance does not incorporate restructuring charges or additional share repurchases, and we estimate our weighted average shares to be 47.3 million.

此外，與往常一樣，我們的指引不包含重組費用或額外的股票回購，我們估計我們的加權平均股數為 4,730 萬股。

I will now turn it back to Jonas.

現在我將把話題轉回給喬納斯。

Thank you, Jack. We are confident in our strategic plan to diversify, digitize and innovate. In our next call, we will share more detail on the progress of our technology road map, and how we're implementing AI and Agentic AI.

謝謝你，傑克。我們對多元化、數位化和創新的策略計劃充滿信心。在下一次電話會議中，我們將分享有關我們的技術路線圖進度的更多細節，以及我們如何實施人工智慧和 Agentic AI。

We're preparing to showcase this at VivaTech in Paris in May, one of the world's largest tech conferences. We'll be sharing how we're partnering with best-in-class platforms to build tailored solutions with candidate experience and data privacy front and center.

我們準備在 5 月於巴黎舉行的 VivaTech 上展示這款產品，這是世界上最大的科技會議之一。我們將分享如何與一流平台合作，建立以候選人體驗和資料隱私為核心的客製化解決方案。

We know our approach to buy best-in-class and build to differentiate will status apart, and we are focused on ensuring we have a strong foundation of data and aligned global systems that enable us to scale, drive efficiencies and create even more value for our clients and candidates.

我們知道，我們購買一流產品並進行差異化建設的方法將脫穎而出，我們專注於確保我們擁有強大的數據基礎和協調的全球系統，使我們能夠擴大規模、提高效率並為我們的客戶和候選人創造更多價值。

Executing our diversification, digitization and innovation strategy at speed and scale requires process convergence across our global enterprise, and continued discipline to manage costs at the center for the benefit of our brands and countries where business is done.

要快速、大規模地實施我們的多元化、數位化和創新策略，需要我們全球企業的流程整合，並持續嚴格管理成本，以造福我們的品牌和開展業務的國家。

In our last call, we shared that we had evolved our organizational structures to align our global brands Manpower, Experis and Talent Solutions within the strength and global commercial function to drive profitable revenue growth.

在我們上次電話會議中，我們表示我們已經改進了組織結構，以使我們的全球品牌 Manpower、Experis 和 Talent Solutions 在實力和全球商業功能範圍內保持一致，從而推動盈利收入成長。

In Q1, we continued this progress expanding alignment of our global functions, advancing the centralization and standardization of finance, technology, marketing, people and culture and legal across countries and regions. This is already enabling us to better leverage subject matter expertise for greater global consistency and efficiency.

第一季度，我們繼續推動全球職能的協調，推動跨國家和地區的財務、技術、行銷、人員和文化以及法律的集中化和標準化。這已經使我們能夠更好地利用主題專業知識來提高全球一致性和效率。

Because we help our clients build workforces with the best specialist talent, we need to attract and retain the best people. And to that end, we're delighted to have been named a world's most ethical company for the 16th time. We know this accolade matters to our people and to our clients. It is one of the reasons talent and organizations choose Manpower Group and its family of brands, Manpower, Experis and Talent Solutions.

因為我們幫助客戶建立擁有最優秀專業人才的勞動力隊伍，所以我們需要吸引和留住最優秀的人才。為此，我們很高興第十六次被評為全球最具商業道德的公司。我們知道這項榮譽對我們的員工和客戶來說很重要。這是人才和組織選擇萬寶盛華集團及其品牌系列 Manpower、Experis 和 Talent Solutions 的原因之一。

In closing, we have been through uncertain times before and are confident in our ability to manage the business for short-term performance and long-term success. We are committed to being nimble and taking actions as needed adjusting our cost base and adding resources to respond to demand opportunities.

最後，我們以前經歷過不確定的時期，並且有信心我們有能力管理業務以實現短期業績和長期成功。我們致力於靈活應對，並根據需要採取行動，調整成本基礎並增加資源以應對需求機會。

We continue to transform our business at pace, investing in technology, process and talent across our brands to serve our client needs globally, all while maintaining a strong local presence in every market we serve.

我們繼續快速轉型我們的業務，投資於我們品牌的技術、流程和人才，以滿足全球客戶的需求，同時在我們服務的每個市場中保持強大的在地影響力。

Finally, I want to thank our dedicated teams around the world for supporting our clients who place their trust in us, and for guiding millions of people eager to contribute their skills and talent to make organizations successful.

最後，我要感謝我們遍布全球的敬業團隊，感謝他們為信任我們的客戶提供支持，並指導數百萬渴望貢獻技能和才華以使組織成功的人。

I would now like to open the line to Q&A. Operator?

現在我想開始問答環節。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安德魯‧施泰納曼。

Good morning, Jonas. I definitely heard Manpower Group's second quarter guide does not include the prospective impact of pending tariffs. But I was trying to think about if there was a resolution of US tariffs that was considered a kind of reasonable for trade between US and Europe, what kind of rebound might Manpower Group anticipate in that scenario?

早安，喬納斯。我確實聽說萬寶盛華集團的第二季度指南沒有包括即將實施的關稅的預期影響。但我試著思考，如果美國關稅的解決方案被認為對美國和歐洲之間的貿易是合理的，那麼在這種情況下，萬寶盛華集團可能會預期會出現什麼樣的反彈？

Well, good morning, Andrew, thank you, and that's a great question. As you could tell from our earnings release, the first quarter really progressed as we had anticipated with one exception. Actually, revenues came in a bit stronger. We saw good and positive revenue growth in the US, Italy, Spain and, of course, continued strong performance in LATAM and APME, but we had weakness in perm, most notably in France, and in a couple of other European countries, and that's the GP that we were missing really in terms of what we had planned to execute for the quarter.

好吧，早上好，安德魯，謝謝你，這是一個很好的問題。從我們的收益報告中可以看出，第一季的進展確實符合我們的預期，但有一個例外。事實上，收入有所增加。我們在美國、義大利、西班牙看到了良好的正向收入成長，當然，拉丁美洲和亞太及中東地區也繼續表現強勁，但我們在永久市場方面表現疲軟，尤其是在法國和其他幾個歐洲國家，而這正是我們在本季度計劃執行方面真正缺失的。

Now some of that perm hesitation or slowing, we believe, came from continued caution by employers. And that's really what we're -- we're guiding to a continued trend of stability with operations continuing more or less with the trends that they have.

我們認為，現在部分員工對簽證的猶豫或放緩源自於雇主的持續謹慎。這就是我們真正想要引導的——持續穩定的趨勢，營運或多或少會繼續保持現有的趨勢。

But we know that there's a lot of caution. Now if you look at this from a uncertainty level, the cause of this uncertainty is a US trade policy that's been communicated across the world, which is not great in terms of our visibility.

但我們知道仍需謹慎。現在，如果從不確定性的角度來看待這個問題，那麼造成這種不確定性的原因是已經向全世界傳達的美國貿易政策，就我們的可見度而言，這並不是很好。

But the good news with that is as quickly as it came on, it can when this gets removed lead to a very quick change going the other way. And that, coupled with the optimism that we talked about in our last earnings call around what Europe needs to do to become more competitive. And I think those conversations are continuing. In our biggest market, France, last time we spoke, there was still budget uncertainty. Today, we have a budget that's been approved by the legislator. We think that's positive.

但好消息是，它出現得快，消失得也快，反過來也會出現很快的變化。除此之外，我們在上次收益電話會議上也談到了歐洲需要做些什麼才能提高競爭力的樂觀態度。我認為這些對話仍在繼續。在我們最大的市場法國，上次我們談到時，預算仍然存在不確定性。今天，我們的預算已經得到立法者的批准。我們認為這是積極的。

As you can tell, our US business is actually seeing growth in all of our -- in Talent Solutions and in Manpower for three consecutive quarters. And we have a number of European countries that are big for us. Italy, for instance, that is moving forward with good growth and good profitability as well.

正如您所看到的，我們的美國業務實際上連續三個季度在人才解決方案和人力方面都實現了成長。對我們來說，歐洲有許多大國。例如，義大利正在朝著良好的成長和獲利方向發展。

So when a policy that's disrupted it gets to a good resolution in a reasonable way, there is a path to an actual quick turnaround in terms of employer confidence because in the end, it's all about employer confidence what they think could happen and how they feel about the future when it comes to increasing their workforce.

因此，當一項受到干擾的政策以合理的方式得到良好的解決時，就有辦法真正快速地扭轉雇主信心，因為最終，一切都取決於雇主信心，他們認為會發生什麼，以及他們對未來增加勞動力的看法。

Thanks, Jonas.

謝謝，喬納斯。

Thanks, Andrew.

謝謝，安德魯。

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬納夫·帕特奈克（Manav Patnaik）。

Thank you. Good morning. Just a couple of things. Jonas, if I could follow up on the comment on the permanent weakness that you're seeing. It sounds like most of it is just the freezing acquiring decisions, but I was just wondering if you're starting to see any signs of layoffs. And I don't know if it's an early indicator or something, as you've seen in prior cycles of what happens in that area typically?

謝謝。早安.僅舉幾例。喬納斯，我是否可以跟進您所看到的有關永久性弱點的評論。聽起來大部分只是凍結收購決定，但我只是想知道您是否開始看到任何裁員的跡象。我不知道這是否是一個早期指標，或者像您在之前的周期中所看到的，該地區通常會發生什麼？

I would say it follows our discussion in our prepared remarks, when employers adopt a wait and see approach they become more cautious. And in the first phase of that caution, they pull back on their temporary staffing. As you can tell, in many countries, we have stabilized. And in some, we've actually seen an improvement when -- before we saw a more pronounced pullback. So what then happens is they move to their permanent hiring.

我想說的是，這符合我們在準備好的發言中所討論的內容，當雇主採取觀望態度時，他們會變得更加謹慎。在謹慎的第一階段，他們減少了臨時員工的數量。正如你所看到的，在許多國家，我們已經穩定下來。在某些情況下，我們實際上已經看到了改善，而之前我們看到了更明顯的回調。因此接下來發生的事情是他們轉向永久性僱用。

But I would provide this color, though, that I think is an interesting element that we also talked about in our prepared remarks, which is that the pullback on the hiring is primarily focused around lower skills.

但是，我想提供這種色彩，我認為這是一個有趣的元素，我們在準備好的評論中也談到了這一點，那就是招募的回落主要集中在低技能方面。

We are still seeing good demand on more specialized skills, more technical skills within manufacturing, in logistics, other parts of our client segments. And I think that distinction tells you that this notion of employers are uncertain, but they're holding on to their workforces. They are not letting go of workforces to any major degree. They're also not hiring to any major degree.

我們仍然看到製造業、物流業以及客戶群的其他部分對更專業技能、更多技術技能的需求很高。我認為這種差異告訴你，雇主的概念是不確定的，但他們仍保留著自己的勞動力。他們不會大規模裁減勞動力。他們也沒有大規模招募員工。

They are, however, when we are -- when they need any workforce, they are coming to us, which you can see reflected in a number of our countries actually performing with better revenues than what we had anticipated when we gave our guidance for the first quarter.

然而，當他們需要勞動力時，他們就會來找我們，這一點您可以從我們許多國家的實際收入表現中看到，這些收入比我們在第一季給出指導時的預期要好。

So it is a pretty traditional dynamic when employers get cautious later on. They will pull back on perm, but the distinction here is more specialized skills are still very important as companies are in full transformation mode in many areas of their businesses, and it's the skills that are easier to replace at a later point that we're seeing a little bit more weakness.

因此，當雇主後來變得謹慎時，這是一種相當傳統的動態。他們會撤回永久許可，但這裡的區別是，更專業的技能仍然非常重要，因為公司在其業務的許多領域都處於全面轉型模式，而且我們看到的是，那些以後更容易被取代的技能更加薄弱。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And just one more. You talked about how uncertainty is typically a benefit for kind of your services. But I think there's always that level like when it gets too uncertain, which is probably what it is now, it isn't. And my question is more, when do you start deciding that you need to rightize your cost base and workforce even more than perhaps what you've already done?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。還有一個。您談到了不確定性通常對您的服務有益。但我認為，當情況變得太不確定時，總會有一個水平，這可能是現在的情況，但事實並非如此。我的問題是，您什麼時候開始決定需要比現在更合理地調整成本基礎和勞動力？

Well, it's something that we're looking at on an ongoing basis, and it very much depends on where -- which country we're talking about. What we anticipate in terms of the demand? What are we seeing coming in terms of the future pipeline. So it's a balance that we're managing in each country on a continuous basis.

嗯，這是我們正在持續關注的事情，而且這很大程度上取決於我們談論的是哪個國家。我們對需求有何預期？就未來的管道而言，我們看到了什麼？因此，我們在每個國家都持續保持平衡。

As you've seen in our results in the first quarter, clearly, we've taken some significant additional action in Northern Europe because there is a clear dichotomy in Europe, Southern Europe is performing much better. Northern Europe continues to struggle. A lot of that is tied to their economic outlook in terms of the country.

正如您在第一季的業績中所看到的，顯然，我們在北歐採取了一些重要的額外行動，因為歐洲存在明顯的二分法，南歐的表現要好得多。北歐仍在苦苦掙扎。這在很大程度上與他們對該國經濟的展望有關。

And we're seeing that reflected in our business and then we take actions. But we try to do this in a balanced way because we want to protect our ability to deliver great service to our clients and drive increased performance in terms of our market share.

我們看到這反映在我們的業務中，然後我們採取了行動。但我們試圖以平衡的方式做到這一點，因為我們希望保護我們為客戶提供優質服務的能力，並提高我們的市場份額。

And I think our results this quarter illustrate that we're managing that quite well. The revenues came in higher, and I think that is a testament to competing well in the market across the world.

我認為本季的業績顯示我們管理得相當好。收入增加，我認為這證明了我們在全球市場上的良好競爭力。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Alexander Sinatra, Baird.

亞歷山大·辛納屈，貝爾德。

Hey, this is Mark Marcon. I had to dial in through Alex's line, there was a little technical snafu Jonas, you started your presentation by mentioning that you had been to Europe recently and met with both your clients and your leadership teams.

嘿，我是馬克馬孔。我必須透過亞歷克斯的線路撥打電話，出現了一點技術故障，喬納斯，你在演講開始時提到你最近去過歐洲，並會見了你的客戶和領導團隊。

And I'm wondering if you could communicate to an even greater extent what is the mindset of some of those clients? Are they in this belief with regards to the tariff policy is there expectation that it's going to settle down and potentially go back to the way it was, or are they in the early stages of trying to prepare for a new reality?

我想知道您是否可以更詳細地解釋一下這些客戶的想法？他們是否相信關稅政策會穩定下來並可能恢復到原來的狀態，或者他們是否正處於為新現實做準備的早期階段？

Good morning, Mark. Well, I would say, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, first of all, no one is making any big moves right now. They are adopting a wait and see approach. If their business is progressing, we're seeing good staffing trends in those countries. If our business isn't, they're more cautious.

早上好，馬克。嗯，我想說，正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，首先，現在沒有人採取任何重大舉措。他們採取觀望態度。如果他們的業務正在進展，我們會看到這些國家的人員配置趨勢良好。如果我們的業務不是這樣，他們就會更加謹慎。

Overall, as I just mentioned, from a perm perspective, we're seeing a little bit more softening, but most of them anticipate that this is a negotiation tactic to change the trade dynamics, but that ultimately, this will result in a settlement that is different than what was announced on April 2.

總的來說，正如我剛才提到的，從永久的角度來看，我們看到了更多的軟化，但他們中的大多數人預計這是一種改變貿易動態的談判策略，但最終，這將導致與 4 月 2 日宣布的解決方案不同的解決方案。

So that is the belief in the vast majority of client conversations that we've had. Now the uncertainty comes from each country is different. The application of this trade policy is different country by country, industry by industry. And I think that is what's causing a greater degree of uncertainty.

這是我們與絕大多數客戶交談時所持的信念。現在來自各國的不確定性是不同的。這項貿易政策的應用因國家、產業而異。我認為這就是造成更大程度不確定性的原因。

But there is a pretty uniform view that this is going to be part of a negotiated settlement. Most of them don't anticipate that it's going to be exactly the way it was before. They accept that there's going to be changes but they believe that the changes or they hope, I should say, that those changes are going to be manageable and different from what was announced in -- on April 2.

但大家一致認為，這將是談判解決的一部分。他們中的大多數人沒有預料到事情會和以前完全一樣。他們承認將會有變化，但他們相信這些變化，或者說他們希望這些變化是可控的，並且與 4 月 2 日宣布的變化不同。

Now some of the regions, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, I was in Latin America recently. That's a region that has seen relatively mild changes in tariff arrangements. And so there, clearly, they are not seeing this as that much of an obstacle and are feeling much better about the outlook.

現在談到一些地區，正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，我最近去了拉丁美洲。該地區的關稅安排變化相對較小。因此，顯然他們並不認為這是一個多大的障礙，而且對前景感覺好多了。

But overall, the sentiment is the sooner that this gets sorted, the better it is because there are opportunities, and there is a belief that we can see good growth come back or accelerate if we just get past this policy hurdle.

但總體而言，人們的看法是，這個問題越早得到解決就越好，因為存在機會，而且人們相信，只要我們克服這個政策障礙，我們就能看到良好的成長回歸或加速。

Great. And you took some actions in Northern Europe. Can you describe the savings that you may get from those recent actions and how we should think about it? And then secondly, can you also describe what the outlook is in terms of the French taxes for the balance of the year, how we should think about that? And is this a one year deal, or could it continue into '26 as well?

偉大的。你們在北歐也採取了一些行動。您能否描述一下您從最近的行動中可以獲得哪些節省以及我們應該如何看待它？其次，您能否描述一下今年法國稅收餘額的前景如何，我們該如何看待這個問題？這是一份為期一年的合約嗎？還是可以延續到 26 年？

Mark, this is Jack. I'd be happy to talk to that. So specifically on the restructuring charges. So you can see for the quarter overall, we took $15.8 million. As Jonas said, if you look at our Northern Europe slide, you can see that's where we've been experiencing the most pressure.

馬克，這是傑克。我很樂意談論這個。具體來說，就是重組費用。所以你可以看到整個季度我們的收入為 1580 萬美元。正如喬納斯所說，如果你看看我們北歐的下滑，你會發現那裡是我們承受壓力最大的地方。

That's where the majority of our actions are happening. So at the top of the list would be the Nordics, about $5 million of the total charge is Nordics. Next would be Belgium in the UK about $2.5 million to $3 million each. You can see in the UK, continue to see very difficult conditions there.

我們的大部分行動都發生在那裡。因此，名單上排在第一位的應該是北歐國家，總收費中約有 500 萬美元來自北歐國家。其次是比利時，英國每人約 250 萬至 300 萬美元。您可以看到，在英國，情況仍然非常艱難。

And I'd say, lastly, the Netherlands continues to be a market we're focused on rightsizing as well based on current demand levels and a bit in Spain as well. So the rest were relatively small.

最後我想說的是，根據目前的需求水平，荷蘭仍然是我們重點關注的市場，西班牙也是如此。所以其餘的都相對較小。

In terms of your point, Mark, on payback, generally, when we look at the majority of the actions, the majority of them are FTE related. So we see a pretty quick payback. And there are a small number of office optimization efforts there as well. But generally, our overall payback is about nine months.

馬克，就你提到的回報而言，一般來說，當我們看大多數行動時，會發現它們大多數都與 FTE 有關。因此，我們看到了相當快的回報。那裡也有一些辦公室優化工作。但一般來說，我們的總回報期約為九個月。

So we will start to see that improvement coming through in Q2. And I should say also, we did restructure, of course, in the second half of 2024. And you see some of that coming through now, particularly in Northern Europe, where we took very significant actions we're taking more now, but we took some good actions last year that are actually helping improve the sequential profitability in that region. And we're very focused on getting Northern Europe back to breakeven and then profitability, which you can see through these actions. So that's what I'd say about the restructuring activities.

因此我們將在第二季開始看到這種改善。我還應該說，我們當然在 2024 年下半年進行了重組。現在您會看到其中一些舉措已經開始實施，特別是在北歐，我們在那裡採取了非常重要的行動，現在我們正在採取更多行動，但去年我們採取了一些良好的行動，這些行動實際上有助於提高該地區的連續盈利能力。我們非常注重讓北歐恢復收支平衡並實現盈利，您可以透過這些行動看到這一點。這就是我對重組活動的看法。

In terms of your question on the France tax rate, yes, it is enacted as a one year increase. So that is the legislation as -- and you can see in our materials, we estimate that about a 5.3% increase in our, I should say, 5.6% increase in our overall tax rate that we guided at the beginning of the year. And then you add the country mix update to that, which is about 3.2% on top of that.

關於您關於法國稅率的問題，是的，稅率是每年增加的。這就是立法——你可以在我們的材料中看到，我們估計我們的整體稅率將比年初預測的增加約 5.3%，或者說增加 5.6%。然後將國家組合更新添加到其中，大約為 3.2%。

So that gets us to the new effective tax rate that I've guided to. In terms of France and whether or not there will be any changes beyond this year, I would say everything we've seen from the administration is they're very, very focused on the competitiveness of France, and for that reason, we believe at this point that this is a one year increase as they enacted, and for them to increase it further, they would have to do that through new legislation and through a new budget at the end of the year.

這樣我們就得到了我所指導的新有效稅率。就法國而言，以及今年以後是否會有任何變化，我想說，我們從政府那裡看到的一切都是他們非常非常關注法國的競爭力，因此，我們認為，這是他們頒布的一年的增長，如果他們想進一步提高稅率，他們必須在年底通過新的立法和新的預算來實現這一點。

And at this stage, we just don't see any signs that would indicate that, that is a probability. So we do -- we are viewing this as it's been enacted in the law as a one year change. And as we go forward, as I mentioned previously, we would also expect some of the countries where we have valuation allowances to start to see significant tax benefits as we move forward, and we rebound in those markets back to profitability, and you'll see the tax rate improve pretty significantly once that happens in the future.

而在現階段，我們還沒有看到任何跡象顯示這是一種可能性。所以我們這樣做——我們認為這是法律頒布後的一年內發生的改變。正如我之前提到的，隨著我們不斷前進，我們也預計一些擁有估值準備金的國家將開始看到顯著的稅收優惠，隨著我們前進，這些市場將恢復盈利，一旦未來發生這種情況，你就會看到稅率大幅提高。

Great. Thank you. And then one last one, just perm as a percentage of gross profit and what your expectations are as it relates to the second quarter for perm?

偉大的。謝謝。最後一個問題，perm 佔毛利的百分比是多少？您對第二季 perm 的預期是什麼？

Yes. So perm as a percentage of GP in Q1 was 16.4%. Because Q1 is our lowest quarter of earnings and GP dollars, that's a bit inflated generally because the staffing base is a bit lower in Q1. As we ended the year last year, we were at about 15.5%. So I think that's a reasonable guideline as we go forward.

是的。因此，第一季的 Perm 佔 GP 的百分比為 16.4%。由於第一季是我們獲利和毛利率最低的季度，因此總體而言，獲利和毛利率有些虛高，因為第一季的員工基數較低。截至去年年底，我們的佔比約為 15.5%。所以我認為這是我們前進的合理指導方針。

I think perm overall, to Jonas point, that we talked about, that really was the key factor in the earnings this quarter. As we ended the year last year, we actually saw the year over year term trend really come in line with what was happening with staffing at that time.

我認為，總體而言，正如喬納斯所說，這確實是本季獲利的關鍵因素。截至去年年底，我們實際上看到同比任期趨勢與當時的人員配置一致。

So perm was down about 3% organically, and we saw staffing GP down around 4% -- a little bit higher than that, but very closely aligned. And as we walked into the first quarter, we saw perm step down further year over year. So perm was down about 8% year over year in the first quarter, and that really was what drove the lower.

因此，perm 自然下降了約 3%，而我們看到員工 GP 下降了約 4%——略高於這個數字，但非常接近。當我們進入第一季時，我們看到 perm 的數量比去年同期進一步下降。因此，第一季的 perm 年減了約 8％，這才是導致就業率下降的真正原因。

We had seen some good stabilization. But as Jonas said, this stepped down a bit further in the first quarter. So as we go forward, I think we're being cautious, as you heard me say in the guide, and I think our perm expectations for Q2 are pretty much aligned to what we just experienced in Q1.

我們已經看到了一些良好的穩定性。但正如喬納斯所說，這一數字在第一季進一步下降。因此，隨著我們前進，我認為我們會保持謹慎，正如您在指南中聽到我所說的那樣，我認為我們對第二季度的永久預期與我們在第一季所經歷的情況基本一致。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Kartik Mehta, Northcoast Research.

Kartik Mehta，Northcoast Research。

Hey, good morning. I wanted to ask you a little bit of a bigger picture question. And I know temporary staffing fundamentals have been under stress for almost three years now. But have you seen any impact from other technology that might be impacting temporary staffing, whether it's LinkedIn or other apps, or is there any pressure on the business from kind of secondary competitors.

嘿，早安。我想問您一個更宏觀的問題。我知道臨時人員配備基礎近三年來一直處於壓力之下。但是，您是否看到其他技術對臨時員工配置的影響，無論是 LinkedIn 還是其他應用程序，或者是否存在來自次要競爭對手的業務壓力。

As we look out over the world, what's important to remember is when we talk about difficulties for three years, we have two regions that have been progressing all during this time and growing revenues and improving their profitability in Asia Pac and LATAM.

放眼世界，重要的是要記住，當我們談論三年來的困難時，我們有兩個地區在這段時間裡一直在進步，收入不斷增長，盈利能力不斷提高，即亞太地區和拉丁美洲地區。

Europe's economy has been very challenged. [PMI has been well below 50] for more than two years coming up to three. And the biggest engine in Europe, Germany has been in recession for two years. But as you look at the industry dynamics, really the country that sticks out is the US, because we've had good growth, solid employment, although both of those factors are cooling right now, yet as an industry, we have seen negative growth for those three years.

歐洲經濟面臨巨大挑戰。 PMI已連續兩年多低於50，目前已是第三年。而歐洲最大的經濟引擎德國已經陷入衰退兩年了。但當你觀察產業動態時，真正引人注目的國家是美國，因為我們有良好的成長和穩固的就業，儘管這兩個因素現在都在降溫，但作為一個產業，我們在這三年裡出現了負成長。

So the question then is, why do we think these are -- this is the case. And a lot of that, we think, has to do with the post-pandemic strong hiring right after the pandemic, probably over hiring employees realizing that finding skilled talent is difficult, and they've been holding on to their workforce. So this element of labor hoarding, we think, has been a feature as to why our industry has been impacted in this way.

那麼問題是，我們為什麼認為這些是──事實就是如此。我們認為，這在很大程度上與疫情過後強勁的招募有關，可能是因為企業過度招募員工，因為他們意識到尋找技術人才很困難，所以一直在保留員工。因此，我們認為勞動力囤積這一因素是導致我們的行業受到如此影響的一個原因。

And at this stage, we are seeing no signs that this has anything to do with a technological change or structural change. We think this is primarily due to pandemic anomalies that are playing out and through. We anticipate that they will normalize and the traditional dynamics in our industry will come back into play. If there were to be any indication of a technology change, I would look at certain roles, primarily in the technology sector and specifically as it relates to programmers.

目前，我們還沒有看到任何跡象表明這與技術變革或結構變革有關。我們認為這主要是由於正在發生的流行病異常現象所造成的。我們預計它們將會正常化，我們行業的傳統活力將重新發揮作用。如果有任何技術變革的跡象，我會關注某些角色，主要是技術領域的角色，特別是與程式設計師相關的角色。

And so software coding and programming, you can really see how AI has made that much more efficient. And you can see it also come through in the unemployment rate for software programmers here in the US, which is above 7% right now, and we're at 4.2% unemployment for the country.

因此，您可以真正看到人工智慧如何使軟體編碼和程式設計更有效率。您也可以看到，美國軟體程式設計師的失業率目前已超過 7%，而全國的失業率為 4.2%。

So that would be the one area where we can clearly see that there is a structural change in demand in a specific role where the application of technology is making those workers much more productive when they are augmented by GenAI in particular.

因此，我們可以清楚地看到，在特定角色中，需求發生了結構性變化，技術的應用使這些工人的生產力大大提高，尤其是在 GenAI 的輔助下。

And then just as a follow-up, Jonas, and this -- I realize this might be a difficult question, but you talked about France and maybe some certainly around when the budget was passed. Did you see, as the budget was passed and the tax rate was increased, was -- did this certainly result in less demand. And maybe that's difficult because all this tariff stuff is going on. But I'm wondering if that resulted in less demand and once the budget gears over, could that increase demand?

然後作為後續問題，喬納斯，我知道這可能是一個很難的問題，但您談到了法國，也許有些肯定是在預算通過時。您是否看到，隨著預算的通過和稅率的提高，這是否肯定會導致需求減少。這可能很困難，因為所有這些關稅問題都在發生。但我想知道這是否會導致需求減少，一旦預算結束，是否會增加需求？

It definitely could. I think the current uncertainty around the trade policy clearly now causes more hesitation on the part of employers. But just as we said at the top of the call, as quickly as this trade uncertainty came on and was really solidified on April 2, if it is negotiated and settled at a reasonable level, it could turn around the sentiment pretty quickly because companies feel that Europe is on the path of becoming more or wanting to take steps to become more competitive along the lines of the five pillars of the [Dragon] plan, which talks about productivity, better innovation and technology adoption, reducing regulation, things like that, which would be good for business.

絕對可以。我認為當前貿易政策的不確定性顯然導致雇主更加猶豫。但正如我們在電話會議開始時所說的那樣，這種貿易不確定性在 4 月 2 日出現並真正得到鞏固，如果能夠通過談判將其解決在合理的水平上，那麼市場情緒可能會很快得到扭轉，因為企業認為歐洲正在變得更加有競爭力，或者希望採取措施提高競爭力，按照“龍”計劃的五大支柱，該計劃談到了生產率、更具監管和技術等技術。

You've also seen a surge in defense spending and announced willingness, especially in Germany, to finance for their part, greater investments in that area, which from our perspective, could be really good because we have a very strong position in aerospace and defense across all of our brands and especially exposure into Manpower, which is our biggest brand in Europe. So we think that could be very good.

您還看到了國防開支的激增，並宣布願意為此提供資金，尤其是在德國，加大對該領域的投資，從我們的角度來看，這可能真的很好，因為我們所有品牌在航空航天和國防領域都佔有非常強的地位，尤其是在 Manpower，這是我們在歐洲最大的品牌。所以我們認為這可能非常好。

So you're absolutely right. If current overhang of the trade policy enactment gets resolved, things and sentiment could change pretty quickly.

所以你完全正確。如果當前貿易政策制定的懸而未決的問題得到解決，情況和情緒可能會很快發生改變。

I would just add to that, Kartik. In France, we actually saw that play out, that uncertainty around the budget impacted the month of January specifically. So January was down the most in the quarter. And as that budget was passed and moved forward in February, we started to see demand improve.

我只想補充一點，卡爾蒂克。在法國，我們確實看到了這種情況，預算的不確定性對一月份產生了特別大的影響。因此，一月份是本季跌幅最大的月份。隨著該預算在二月獲得通過並向前推進，我們開始看到需求改善。

And it actually ended the quarter at probably the best part of the average for the quarter overall, and we take that guide into Q2. So we did see it play out to some degree in Q1, and we're now seeing trends that are more aligned with where we were early in the fourth quarter.

實際上，本季結束時的業績可能是整個季度平均值中最好的，我們將這一預期帶入第二季。因此，我們確實看到它在第一季發揮了一定作用，現在我們看到的趨勢與第四季初的情況更加一致。

Hey, thank you very much, both of you. I appreciate it.

嘿，非常感謝你們兩位。我很感激。

Josh Chan, UBS.

瑞銀的 Josh Chan。

Hi, good morning, Jonas and Jack. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess you mentioned that the perm weakness was primarily in France and a couple of European countries. Is there any insight that you can give as to why those countries are weaker in terms of perm because I would think the trade costs, the uncertainty, would really impact the globe really, including even the US.

嗨，早上好，喬納斯和傑克。感謝您回答我的問題。我想您提到過，燙髮的弱點主要出現在法國和幾個歐洲國家。您能否解釋為什麼這些國家的永久性地位較弱，因為我認為貿易成本和不確定性將真正影響全球，甚至包括美國。

I think as Jack just talked about, in France, there was a greater deal of uncertainty with the budget not having been passed, and once that started to improve, we saw some improvement in our trends in France. I also think it depends on the composition.

我認為正如傑克剛才談到的，在法國，由於預算未通過，存在更大的不確定性，一旦這種情況開始改善，我們就會看到法國的趨勢有所改善。我也認為這取決於構圖。

You heard me talk earlier about how specialized skills, that perm pipeline and sales and revenues actually holding steady and stable, but it's the lower still where companies are making specific decisions. So I wouldn't read too much into it in terms of the various countries, but rather say, overall, there is stability with accepted weakness in some countries and that we're being cautious looking into Q2 because we know hiring is highly dependent on employer confidence and when the uncertainty is increasing, employers hold back a little bit more.

您之前聽我說過，專業技能、永久管道以及銷售和收入實際上如何保持穩定，但公司仍在做出具體的決策。因此，我不會對各國的情況進行過多的解讀，而是說，總體而言，一些國家的經濟保持穩定，但也存在公認的疲軟跡象，我們對第二季度持謹慎態度，因為我們知道招聘在很大程度上取決於雇主的信心，而當不確定性增加時，雇主的招聘意願就會有所減弱。

And at this stage, that would impact perm to a greater degree than anything else. So I think that would be our take on the perm trends. But overall, many countries held up well, and we saw stability in many countries and actually good performance in a number of them as well.

在這個階段，這會對燙髮造成比其他任何事情都更大的影響。所以我認為這就是我們對燙髮趨勢的看法。但總體而言，許多國家都表現良好，我們看到許多國家保持穩定，其中一些國家實際上也表現良好。

Okay. Great. Yeah. Thank you for the call, Jonas. And then maybe one question on cash flow. I think Jack suggested that it may be kind of timing related. Could you give us a little bit more color on what happened in Q1 and kind of your confidence that cash flow can bounce back over the rest of the year?

好的。偉大的。是的。謝謝您的來電，喬納斯。然後也許還有一個關於現金流的問題。我認為傑克認為這可能與時間有關。您能否向我們詳細介紹第一季的情況，以及您對今年剩餘時間內現金流能夠反彈的信心？

Josh, this is Jack. I'd be happy to talk to that. Yeah, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we typically see much softer cash flow and net outflows in the first half of the year. That's been the case actually in 2024 and 2023. The first half is the net outflow and then we generally seasonally see very strong cash flows in the second half of the year.

喬希，這是傑克。我很樂意談論這個。是的，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們通常會在上半年看到現金流和淨流出量大幅下降。2024 年和 2023 年的情況確實如此。上半年是淨流出，而下半年我們通常會看到季節性的強勁現金流。

We certainly saw that last year as well. So that's definitely part of the equation. We would expect that dynamic to play out again this year. I think specifically on the payables, we have a very large market-leading MSP business. And so as we manage the spend under management, that actually has a pretty big impact on our balance sheet in terms of our payables.

我們去年也確實看到了這一點。所以這絕對是等式的一部分。我們預計這種動態今年將再次發揮作用。我認為，具體到應付款項方面，我們擁有非常大的、市場領先的 MSP 業務。因此，當我們管理管理下的支出時，這實際上對我們的應付款項的資產負債表產生了相當大的影響。

So there will generally be a little bit of volatility on the timing of payables as a result of the MSP business. And so that was a little bit of a factor in Q1. So I would say that generally works itself out over the course of the year as well. But those -- I would say those are the main factors to think about in terms of free cash flow.

因此，由於 MSP 業務，應付款項的時間通常會有一點波動。所以這對第一季來說是一個小小的因素。所以我想說，這通常也會在一年的時間內解決。但這些——我想說這些是自由現金流方面需要考慮的主要因素。

Great. Thank you both for the color and the time.

偉大的。謝謝你們的顏色和時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Trevor Romeo, William Blair.

特雷弗羅密歐、威廉布萊爾。

Hi, good morning, Jonas and Jack. Thanks so much for taking a questions. First one I had was just kind of two quick ones on the US Manpower brand. I think in the quarter, it was up 7%, nice improvement back into positive territory. What were some of the drivers of that improvement?

嗨，早上好，喬納斯和傑克。非常感謝您回答問題。我首先想到的只是美國 Manpower 品牌的兩點簡短評價。我認為本季它上漲了 7%，回到了積極的狀態。推動這項改善的一些因素是什麼？

And are you seeing any influence from changes in US immigration policy there? And then, I guess, over the medium term or the long term, who knows what will happen with the tariffs. But if we do actually see reshoring in domestic manufacturing activity increase, any way to think about how much of a benefit that could be for the Manpower brand.

您是否看到美國移民政策變化對其產生任何影響？然後，我想，從中期或長期來看，誰知道關稅會發生什麼變化。但如果我們確實看到國內製造業活動回流增加，我們可以想想這對 Manpower 品牌能有多大的好處。

Well, so Trevor, let me start with your last question -- with your questions in reverse order. So on the first one, it's really hard to tell in terms of what impact and to what degree the -- I mean to what dimension a trade change would impact manufacturing and thus subsequently how much that would impact our Manpower business.

好吧，特雷弗，讓我從你的最後一個問題開始——按照相反的順序提問。因此，對於第一個問題，很難判斷其影響程度如何——我的意思是貿易變化將在多大程度上影響製造業，以及隨後將對我們的人力資源業務產生多大影響。

But suffice to say that any increase in manufacturing employment will be good news for the country and will be good news from a Manpower brand perspective. From an immigration perspective, right now, as we all know, immigration really drove a lot of the economic growth that we've seen over a number of years. But as it relates to our business today, we're not seeing any impact that we can directly relate to a tougher immigration policy. So that's not been impacting our numbers.

但可以說，製造業就業的任何增加對國家來說都是好消息，從萬寶盛華品牌的角度來看也是好消息。從移民的角度來看，眾所周知，移民確實推動了我們多年來所看到的經濟成長。但就我們今天的業務而言，我們並沒有看到與更嚴格的移民政策直接相關的任何影響。所以這並沒有影響我們的數字。

And then lastly, I would say the US team and Manpower has done an excellent job. We've really been working hard at innovating our offerings. You've heard us talk about our branch openings in Walmart, which we think is a great innovation in terms of being where our candidates come and also where clients come to.

最後，我想說，美國團隊和 Manpower 做得非常出色。我們一直在努力創新我們的產品。您已經聽我們談論了我們在沃爾瑪開設分店的情況，我們認為這是一個偉大的創新，因為我們的候選人會來這裡，而客戶也會來這裡。

So that's very encouraging. We've also been very strong in building a pipeline of client opportunities across various industry verticals. And finally, we are seeing the very positive early signs of our investments in our data analytics and our technology investments, which we now leveraging AI used to provide really unique and differentiated workforce insights to our clients, help them optimize cost.

這非常令人鼓舞。我們也非常積極地在各個垂直產業建立客戶機會管道。最後，我們看到了我們在數據分析和技術投資方面的投資的非常積極的早期跡象，我們現在利用人工智慧為客戶提供真正獨特和差異化的勞動力洞察，幫助他們優化成本。

And we can do this down to a very granular level. We can go into a particular work site look at the overall wage levels with surrounding a client's location analyze with the help of data and AI the implications of their current workforce strategy and what we think can be an optimal workforce strategy that will result in cost optimization, productivity improvements, things of that nature.

我們可以將其細化到非常精細的層面。我們可以進入特定的工作地點，查看客戶所在地周圍的整體工資水平，借助數據和人工智慧分析他們當前的勞動力策略的影響，以及我們認為可以實現成本優化、生產力提高等目的的最佳勞動力策略。

And so we can predict changes in outcome with the data that we have collected in the US and, frankly, leveraging our global database. We believe we have the biggest global database in the world as we are now collecting data points from our digitization, our technology infrastructure in a way that is really starting to pay off for us in our client engagements in the US. So the team has done a really nice job, and we're very encouraged with these early indicators of what can happen when we apply technology and AI to drive better outcomes for our clients.

因此，我們可以利用在美國收集的數據以及坦率地說利用我們的全球資料庫來預測結果的變化。我們相信我們擁有世界上最大的全球資料庫，因為我們現在正在從我們的數位化、我們的技術基礎設施中收集數據點，這種方式確實開始在我們與美國客戶的合作中為我們帶來回報。所以，團隊做得非常出色，這些早期指標表明，當我們應用技術和人工智慧為客戶帶來更好的結果時，會發生什麼，這讓我們感到非常鼓舞。

Thank you, Jonas, that's really helpful. And actually, a good segue into my other question, which was I think for Jack, you had mentioned the back office transformation spending in your prepared remarks. I was just wondering if you could give an update on how much of that spend is currently flowing through the P&L? And then how much of, I guess, a margin benefit you'd expect whenever those investments are completed and the timing of that as well? Thanks.

謝謝你，喬納斯，這真的很有幫助。實際上，這很好地引出了我的另一個問題，我認為對於傑克來說，你在準備好的發言中提到了後台轉型支出。我只是想知道您是否可以更新一下目前有多少支出流入損益表？那麼，我想，當這些投資完成時，您期望獲得多少利潤收益以及完成時間是多少？謝謝。

Trevor, I'd be happy to talk to that. So you can see that actually through our corporate SG&A, the corporate component. That's where a lot of the spend on our transformation programs are coming through. And as I mentioned previously, it's been elevated as we continue to execute that transformation. To your point on where we are in terms of the overall transformation, making very, very good progress.

特雷弗，我很樂意談論這個。因此，您實際上可以透過我們的公司銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）即公司組成部分看到這一點。我們的轉型計劃的大量支出都來自於此。正如我之前提到的，隨著我們繼續實施這一轉變，這一目標已經得到提升。關於您所說我們在整體轉型方面取得了非常非常好的進展。

I think Jonas has covered the front office and the PowerSuite front office progress in the past with over 80% of our revenues now on our new cloud-enabled market-leading power suite front office that will pay off as we get operational leverage back. It already is having significant benefits in recruiter productivity and those type of things, but you'll see it more meaningful when operational leverage returns.

我認為 Jonas 過去已經介紹了前台和 PowerSuite 前台的進展情況，現在我們 80% 以上的收入來自我們新的支援雲的市場領先的電源套件前台，隨著我們重新獲得營運槓桿，這將帶來回報。它已經在招募人員生產力和諸如此類的事情上產生了顯著的好處，但當營運槓桿回歸時，你會看到它更有意義。

On the back office side, we're doing really well on PowerSuite back office as well. So we have just about 50% of our revenues going through the new platform. We have implementations going live again this quarter in some of our largest countries.

在後台方面，我們在 PowerSuite 後台方面也做得很好。因此，我們的收入大約有 50% 來自新平台。本季度，我們將在一些最大的國家再次啟動實施。

So we feel really good about that. And what goes hand-in-hand with that is our standardization of our processes and our shared service centers. So we're making very, very good progress on that. I think we're up to seven countries now going through our shared service operations with another four to five in flight as we speak. Those will continue this year and into 2026, where we'll start to inflect into savings from those programs during calendar year 2026.

所以我們對此感到非常高興。同時，我們的流程和共享服務中心也實現了標準化。因此我們在這方面取得了非常非常好的進展。我認為，目前已有多達七個國家正在使用我們的共享服務運營，另有四到五個國家正在運營。這些舉措將在今年和 2026 年持續下去，我們將在 2026 年開始將這些計畫的節省轉化為收益。

And as I've mentioned in the past, that impact is going to be significant because you'll see an increase in the -- you'll see a decrease in the overall spend on those programs as they complete, but you'll see the increase in efficiency, and you'll see that come through in our bottom line margin.

正如我過去提到的那樣，這種影響將是巨大的，因為你會看到這些項目完成後，整體支出會減少，但效率會提高，你會看到這體現在我們的底線利潤上。

So I think the efficiency is somewhere in the range of 25 basis points. The drop-off in spend, as I've said in the past is another 15 basis points to 25 basis points. So that will be a significant step change in our overall efficiency as we move forward with those programs.

所以我認為效率在 25 個基點左右。正如我過去所說，支出的下降幅度是 15 個基點到 25 個基點。因此，隨著我們推進這些計劃，這將是我們整體效率的重大變化。

Okay. Thank you both very much. I appreciate the updates.

好的。非常感謝你們兩位。我很感謝這些更新。

Tobey Sommer, Truist Securities.

托比·索默（Tobey Sommer），Truist Securities。

Thanks. You've talked about the way you're managing expenses and where you're investing in the business. In terms of broader capital deployment, how do you think about things now -- and what might you be looking to add to the portfolio as you pursue a change in the mix over time if the recession occurs in the US, typically, you've come out and deployed capital more to a greater extent after such a period. Thanks.

謝謝。您談到了管理費用的方式以及您在業務上的投資方向。就更廣泛的資本配置而言，您現在如何看待這種情況？如果美國出現經濟衰退，隨著時間的推移，您會尋求改變投資組合，並在投資組合中添加哪些內容？通常，在這段時期之後，您會在更大程度上部署資本。謝謝。

Yeah, thanks for the question, Tobey. I think I would start by just saying, our overall strategy and capital allocation principles are unchanged. So as you've seen in environments like this, you see us continuing to do share repurchases.

是的，謝謝你的提問，托比。我想首先要說的是，我們的整體策略和資本配置原則並沒有改變。因此，正如您在這樣的環境中看到的那樣，您會看到我們繼續進行股票回購。

And looking at our -- when we look at our excess cash, we also look at whether or not there's opportunities for M&A, and we've prioritized that in the past. In the current environment, as we've talked, it isn't very conducive to significant M&A when we start to see an inflection point in the market, we would expect that would start to change.

當我們審視我們的過剩現金時，我們也會考慮是否有併購的機會，過去我們一直將此列為優先事項。正如我們所說，在當前環境下，這不利於重大併購，當我們開始看到市場出現轉折點時，我們預計這種情況會開始改變。

So as we look at our overall businesses, the areas that we have been successful in M&A is on the Experis side, focused on IT services and also on the Talent Solutions side. So I would say RPO would be an area that we continue to be very interested in opportunities to continue to add skill sets and expansion in key markets. And as we've talked about before, we think the US market is a great opportunity. You've seen us do outsized acquisitions in that market in the past.

因此，當我們審視我們的整體業務時，我們在併購方面取得成功的領域是在 Experis 方面，專注於 IT 服務方面，同時也在人才解決方案方面。因此我想說，RPO 是一個我們持續非常感興趣的領域，我們將繼續尋找機會增加技能組合併在主要市場擴張。正如我們之前談到的，我們認為美國市場是一個很好的機會。您已經看到我們過去在該市場進行過超大規模的收購。

And in terms of internally and as we continue to run the business, we continue to invest in key markets where there's great opportunities. You see us doing that in Italy. As Jonas talked about, Italy grew 5% data adjusted in the first quarter. That's a market where we continue to invest. Japan continuing to have a great track record with 10 years of growth.

就內部而言，隨著我們繼續經營業務，我們將繼續投資於擁有巨大機會的關鍵市場。你可以看到我們在義大利這樣做。正如喬納斯談到的，義大利第一季數據調整後成長了5%。這是我們將繼續投資的市場。日本繼續保持著十年來良好的成長記錄。

We are investing in the Japan business. And we're doing that in other markets as well, like Israel. And Jonas talked about US Manpower. One of the reasons US Manpower is performing very well is we continue to invest in sales professionals as part of that.

我們正在投資日本業務。我們也在其他市場這樣做，例如以色列。喬納斯談到了美國力量。美國人力資源公司表現優異的原因之一是我們持續對銷售專業人員進行投資。

So we -- although we are continuing to balance the equation with cost rightsizing we're making sure we do not impact our sales capabilities so that we have opportunities to continue to take market share and win in the market.

因此，儘管我們正在繼續透過調整成本來平衡方程式，但我們仍要確保不會影響我們的銷售能力，以便我們有機會繼續佔領市場份額並在市場中獲勝。

So in this current environment, we're going to be very focused on allocating our internal capital into those businesses that have good opportunities. And I think to my point, when the market changes in the future, we'll probably talk more about other opportunities externally.

因此，在當前環境下，我們將非常注重將內部資本配置到那些擁有良好機會的業務中。我認為，當未來市場發生變化時，我們可能會更多地談論其他外部機會。

Thanks. If I could sneak in a follow-up, I know we're long on time. With respect to demand from your customers for upskilling, what kind of occupations are they most focused on, and what you're hearing in customer conversations because that could inform us about where AI may be impacting the labor force? Thanks.

謝謝。如果我可以偷偷跟進的話，我知道我們時間還很充裕。關於您的客戶對技能提升的需求，他們最關注哪種職業？您在客戶對話中聽到了什麼？這可以告訴我們人工智慧可能在哪些方面影響勞動力？謝謝。

Well, it's really early days still. But I would say, generally speaking, companies are really looking at upskilling people so they can handle more technology or different technology. So our view is that there is going to be a significant transformation with technology in general and with AI in particular. But we also believe that this is an augmentation of human capabilities.

嗯，現在還為時過早。但我想說，一般來說，公司確實希望提高員工的技能，以便他們能夠掌握更多的技術或不同的技術。因此，我們認為，整個技術，特別是人工智慧，將發生重大轉變。但我們也相信這是人類能力的增強。

So over time, we think that companies will want to a company and helped the upskilling of their workers around areas that help them work better with AI, and that's what we're starting to see generally I think specifically, the areas where we're seeing demand from AI perspective and where we can see skill sets really pulling is full stack developers, cybersecurity, data analytics, and as I earlier mentioned, AI and particularly generative AI, although those volumes -- the demand is there, but the volumes are not as strong.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們認為公司會希望幫助員工提陞技能，幫助他們更好地利用人工智能，這就是我們開始看到的，我認為具體來說，從人工智能的角度來看，我們看到需求的領域以及我們可以看到技能組合真正吸引人的領域是全端開發人員、網絡安全、數據分析，正如我之前提到的，人工智能，特別是生成人工智能，雖然這些領域有需求，但數量並不那麼強勁。

And some of these skills are new to the market. This really plays well into our strength around the Experis Academy, and how we can continue to develop our consultants and candidates in these key areas to build the workforce of the future.

其中一些技能對於市場來說還是新技能。這確實充分發揮了我們在 Experis Academy 的優勢，以及我們如何繼續在這些關鍵領域培養我們的顧問和候選人，以打造未來的勞動力。

We doubled the amount of people going through our academy last year versus 2023, and we anticipate to see further strong growth in this area also in 2025. And the same is true for our Manpower MyPath program, where we have almost 300,000 people who have now gone through various upskilling and reskilling initiatives. And we think this remains a very strong differentiator for both Manpower and Experis and I think into the future. And demand for this is technology progresses at an accelerating pace, this will continue to be an area of great focus of ours, both in Manpower and in Experis.

與 2023 年相比，去年我們學院的學員數量增加了一倍，我們預計 2025 年該領域還將進一步強勁增長。我們的 Manpower MyPath 計畫也是如此，目前已有近 30 萬人接受了各種技能提升和再培訓計畫。我們認為，這對 Manpower 和 Experis 來說仍然是一個非常強大的差異化因素，我認為在未來也是如此。對此的需求是技術進步的加速，這將繼續成為我們重點關注的領域，無論是在 Manpower 還是在 Experis。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮摩爾，傑富瑞集團。

Hi, good morning. Thank you. I wanted to maybe touch on certain hiring verticals. If you're seeing any indication for maybe improved trends or a little bit more of a more favorable appetite in any certain verticals. I know in the past, you've talked about government hiring, healthcare and the like of maybe being good indicators of an inflection in demand. So any specific industry color would be helpful. Thank you.

嗨，早安。謝謝。我可能想談一下某些招募垂直領域。如果您看到任何跡象表明趨勢可能有所改善，或者某些垂直領域的胃口有所增強。我知道，過去您曾談到政府招聘、醫療保健等可能是需求變化的良好指標。因此任何特定的行業顏色都會有幫助。謝謝。

Thanks for the question, Stephanie, good to have you on the call. I would say in terms of industry verticals, where we've seen some strength, I'd say aerospace for sure, has been a strength, particularly in France for us.

謝謝你的提問，史蒂芬妮，很高興你來接電話。我想說，就產業垂直領域而言，我們看到了一些優勢，我想說航空航太肯定是一個優勢，特別是在法國。

I'd say food manufacturing generally has held up fairly well, while I'd say, broader manufacturing has been weaker, as Jonas mentioned, with lower manufacturing PMIs. But food has held up well in markets like the US, France and Italy. I'd say a bit mixed on financials.

我想說，食品製造業整體表現相當不錯，但正如喬納斯所提到的，整體製造業表現較弱，製造業採購經理人指數 (PMI) 較低。但在美國、法國和義大利等市場，食品表現依然良好。我想說財務狀況有點複雜。

I'd say certain markets have been holding up better than others. And then on logistics, I think we've seen some strength in markets like Spain and again, a bit of a mix elsewhere, a bit lower in the UK and in France. I think in terms of where it's been continue to be a bit more sluggish, I'd say the public sector generally in the UK and Canada is area where we've seen just a bit more of a pullback.

我想說某些市場的表現比其他市場好。在物流方面，我認為我們在西班牙等市場看到了一些優勢，而其他市場則表現不一，英國和法國則略低一些。我認為就持續低迷的狀況而言，我認為英國和加拿大的公共部門總體上是我們看到經濟回落幅度較大的地區。

Auto has been pretty well documented that, that continues to be fairly sluggish and trending softer. And as I mentioned, manufacturing more broadly. I think in terms of technology, clearly, a year ago, that was down quite significantly, where that sits now is really just more stable at lower levels from our enterprise tech clients. And as Jonas said, I think, again, maybe a bit more caution and wait and see approach before we start to see that dynamic change significantly.

有充分證據表明，汽車產業持續保持低迷態勢，呈現疲軟趨勢。正如我所提到的，製造業更加廣泛。我認為就技術而言，顯然，一年前，這一水平下降相當明顯，而現在，對於我們的企業技術客戶來說，這一水平實際上在較低水平上更加穩定。正如喬納斯所說，我認為，在我們開始看到這種動態發生重大變化之前，也許我們需要採取更謹慎和觀望的態度。

Great. Well, I'll leave it at that. Thank you so much.

偉大的。好吧，我就不多說了。太感謝了。

George Tong, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬治通 (George Tong)。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Can you talk about how demand trends exiting the quarter performed relative to earlier in the quarter in your key countries? And to what extent these trends reflected early changes to hiring demand in response to tariff uncertainty given the quarter closed prior to major US tariff announcements on April 2.

你好，謝謝。早安.您能否談談本季末主要國家的需求趨勢與本季初相比表現如何？鑑於本季在 4 月 2 日美國宣布重大關稅之前結束，這些趨勢在多大程度上反映了因關稅不確定性而導致的招聘需求的早期變化。

George, thanks for the question. This is Jack. I'd be happy to talk to that briefly. I think as I mentioned in some of our larger countries, as we ended the quarter going into April, we saw trends that were fairly stable, actually.

喬治，謝謝你的提問。這是傑克。我很樂意簡單談一下這個問題。我認為，正如我在一些較大的國家所提到的那樣，當我們結束進入四月份的季度時，我們看到的趨勢實際上相當穩定。

So France really in line what we've been seeing in April, and we just received an update again this morning, pretty much showing trends, pretty much in line with what we saw in France -- in the month of March, I should say.

因此，法國的情況與我們 4 月看到的情況一致，今天早上我們剛剛收到最新消息，顯示趨勢與我們在法國 3 月看到的情況基本一致——應該說。

So fairly stable there. I would say similar in the US I think in the US, the item we highlighted was the surge in the healthcare IT seasonal projects in Q1. If you put that to the side, I think underlying activity levels were fairly stable in both Experis and Manpower. And as we mentioned, in Manpower, they've certainly seen a bit of an uptick.

所以那裡相當穩定。我想說美國的情況也類似，我們強調的是第一季醫療 IT 季節性計畫的激增。如果你把這一點放在一邊，我認為 Experis 和 Manpower 的潛在活動量都相當穩定。正如我們所提到的，在 Manpower 方面，他們確實看到了一些上升趨勢。

So stable with some good underlying growth. And then I'd say the same thing really in terms of the UK pretty stable as we end the quarter into April. So no significant movements. And then our fourth biggest business, Japan very similar as well. We see good ongoing trends there. So I'd say in terms of our biggest markets and biggest countries, the punch line is really, so far, April is pretty stable with what we saw in the month of March.

非常穩定，並且具有良好的潛在增長。然後我想說的是，就英國而言，隨著本季結束，即四月份，英國經濟相當穩定。因此沒有重大動作。我們的第四大業務日本也非常相似。我們看到那裡正在持續呈現良好的趨勢。因此我想說，就我們最大的市場和最大的國家而言，到目前為止，四月份的表現與三月相比相當穩定。

Got it. That's helpful. You mentioned your 2Q guide reflects demand trends that you're currently seeing. Can you quantify approximately how much tariffs may have lowered staffing demand so far across your business through mid-April and which countries you're seeing the most hesitation in hiring because of tariff uncertainty?

知道了。這很有幫助。您提到，第二季度指南反映了您目前看到的需求趨勢。您能否量化截至 4 月中旬關稅可能對貴公司的人員需求造成多大程度的降低，以及由於關稅不確定性，哪些國家在招聘方面最為猶豫？

I think we are really not reflecting any major changes in trends. Just as Jack said, we're looking stable. For the most part, the uncertainty is really mostly reflected in the perm numbers that we think are going to be a little bit softer, but the overall staffing numbers as we look at this from a Manpower as well as from an experience perspective, we expect to in our guide to be running along the trends such as Jack just talked about.

我認為我們確實沒有反映出任何重大的趨勢變化。正如傑克所說，我們看起來很穩定。在大多數情況下，不確定性實際上主要反映在我們認為將會稍微疲軟的永久許可數量上，但是從人力和經驗的角度來看，我們預計總體員工數量將在我們的指南中沿著傑克剛才談到的趨勢發展。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Customers are adopting the wait and see approach, which means we don't expect any major changes until they have clarity on what the trade policy actually means and how they estimate that it would impact the business.

客戶正在採取觀望態度，這意味著在他們清楚了解貿易政策的實際含義以及他們估計該政策將如何影響業務之前，我們不期望有任何重大變化。

Right. Makes sense. Thank you.

正確的。有道理。謝謝。

Thanks, George.

謝謝，喬治。

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Jonas Prising, for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給 Jonas Prising，請他做最後發言。

Thanks, everyone. We look forward to speaking with you again in our second quarter earnings call later on in July. Have a good rest of the week.

謝謝大家。我們期待在 7 月下旬的第二季財報電話會議上再次與您交談。祝本週剩餘時間過得愉快。

Thank you for your participation. This does include the program and you may now disconnect. Good day.

感謝您的參與。這確實包括程序，您現在可以斷開連接。再會。